195
FXCA62 TJSJ 191833
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST FRI JUN 19 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 227 PM AST FRI JUN 19 2026
* SEASONAL TO WARMER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS FATHER’S DAY WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S
AND MID-100S ACROSS URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
* MODERATE TO HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST WILL SPREAD ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY HAZY SKIES THAT WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND DETERIORATE AIR QUALITY. SENSITIVE GROUPS
MUST FOLLOW MEDICAL RECOMMENDATIONS.
* SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON
FATHER’S DAY, RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER OVER ROADWAYS AND
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
SHORT TERM(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM AST FRI JUN 19 2026
HAZY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING JUST SOUTH
OF ST. CROIX. AS OF 2 PM AST, HIGHS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S
ACROSS MOST COASTAL AREAS. THE WIND WAS FROM THE EAST AROUND 15 TO
20 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND STRONGER GUSTS. LOCALLY
INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING FROM UTUADO TOWARDS RINCON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END
AROUND SUNSET. OVERALL BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, A DENSE PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DISTINCTLY HAZY SKIES, REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND POOR AIR
QUALITY. STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPRESS
DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION, RESTRICTING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO
ISOLATED, DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PUERTO
RICO. ALSO, THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE SOLAR HEATING AND
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRIVE ELEVATED HEAT INDICES
ACROSS COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS, MAINTAINING A RISK FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES.
BY SUNDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE NUANCED AS AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE ENCOUNTERS A SECONDARY PULSE OF MODERATE DUST
CONCENTRATIONS. THIS PERSISTENT SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) EVENT AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTEND WITH THE INCOMING
TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE, RESTRICTING SHOWER COVERAGE IN GENERAL, AS
WAS THE CASE WITH PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVES THAT PASSED MAINLY TO
OUR SOUTH AND THAT WERE SURROUNDED BY SAL. WHILE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.60-1.80
INCHES, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE FRAGMENTED AND
SCATTERED THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE DUST ENTRAINMENT.
HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF HAZY SUNSHINE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO, AND MINOR URBAN/SMALL-STREAM FLOODING OVER WESTERN PR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM AST FRI JUN 19 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
WEATHER CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A
DRIER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM NEAR NORMAL VALUES (1.8 INCHES) ON
MONDAY TO BELOW-NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO TREND
DOWNWARD, RESULTING IN A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. WITH THESE
STABLE CONDITIONS, WE ANTICIPATE WARM WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAINS AND RURAL AREAS. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY, INCLUDING STAYING
HYDRATED AND LIMITING PROLONGED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING THE
HOTTEST PART OF THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS COASTAL AND URBAN
AREAS WHERE HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH SOME PASSING TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD, OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF WET ROADS MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WINDWARD LOCATIONS, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IMPROVES, A RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE-WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MIDWEEK, SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
BY THURSDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED, AND CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE. NEVERTHELESS, THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING IN POOR-
DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS. RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY IF LIVING IN OR TRAVELING THROUGH FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 227 PM AST FRI JUN 19 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER, -TSRA OVER
WESTERN PR SHOULD CAUSE MOSTLY VCTS AT TJBQ THRU 19/22Z. LOW-
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE E-ESE AT 12-20 KT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AND STRONGER GUSTS THRU 19/22Z. HZ DUE TO SAHARAN DUST
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VSBY NEAR 6 SM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 PM AST FRI JUN 19 2026
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST TO EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RESULTING IN CHOPPY SEAS
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES; SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION. A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, RESULTING IN
HAZY SKIES, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND POOR AIR QUALITY. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS REGIONAL
WATERS.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 227 PM AST FRI JUN 19 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE BEACH FORECAST. THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN EXPOSED BEACHES
OF PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA, AND ST. CROIX IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, WITH A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE. BEACHGOERS MUST
EXERCISE CAUTION, AS LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE BEACHES UNDER THE MODERATE RISK. THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THE
THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN, WITH MOST BEACHES OF THE ISLANDS UNDER MODERATE RISK.
BESIDES RIP CURRENTS, RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
FOLLOW THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST, AS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. BEACHGOERS MUST EXERCISE CAUTION,
AS GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AND LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PERSIST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN HAZY SKIES, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND POOR AIR
QUALITY. BEACHGOERS SENSITIVE TO THESE PARTICLES SHOULD FOLLOW
MEDICAL RECOMMENDATIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 227 PM AST FRI JUN 19 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A PRIMARY CONCERN
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
HILLS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AND ST. CROIX. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4:00 PM AST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
CRITICALLY DRY FINE FUELS, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
LOW 50S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR RAPID WILDFIRE IGNITION AND
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR, MEANING ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
SPREAD QUICKLY AND BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. OUTDOOR BURNING
IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TOMORROW (SATURDAY), THE ELEVATED-TO-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, WITH LITTLE TO NO
RELIEF. THE ONGOING INFLOW OF A DENSE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) WILL
MAINTAIN AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MASS, CAPPING DEEP
VERTICAL MOISTURE AND ENHANCING INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ONCE
AGAIN FORECAST TO DROP NEAR 50% OR LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND ST. CROIX. WHEN COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND FURTHER
DRYING OF ALREADY CRITICAL FUELS, AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL
REMAIN A PRIMARY CONCERN ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW MORNING IF CONDITIONS ALIGN AS
EXPECTED.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR PRZ001>005-007-008-
010>013.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PRZ014-015-
018-025-027.
VI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR VIZ001-002.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VIZ002.
AM...NONE.
KM/MARINE/BEACH...MNG
AVIATION/FIRE/SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM...MMC
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