466
FXCA62 TJSJ 221815
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
215 PM AST MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 211 PM AST MON JUN 22 2026
* MODERATE CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST WILL FILTER ACROSS THE
ISLANDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY, RESULTING IN HAZY SKIES, REDUCED
VISIBILITY, AND DEGRADED AIR QUALITY, PARTICULARLY FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS. ANOTHER PULSE OF SAL WILL ARRIVE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
* A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
* LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT EXPOSED
BEACHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS. ST CROIX COULD HAVE A HIGH RISK BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THESE INCREASING WINDS.
SHORT TERM(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM AST MON JUN 22 2026
HAZY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES PERSISTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PATCHES OF
CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO, RESULTING IN BRIEF
PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL ACTIVITY.
IN ADDITION, THE 22/12Z SOUNDING FROM SAN JUAN INDICATED A NOTABLY
DRY LAYER NEAR THE 700 MB LEVEL, SUPPORTING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES ROSE RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNRISE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY AND HAZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
MODERATE CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION. BY 9 AM
AST, THE THERMOMETER AT LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
HAD ALREADY REACHED 86°F, INCREASING TO 90°F BY 11 AM AST. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WERE REPORTED BY SEVERAL UNOFFICIAL STATIONS ALONG
COASTAL AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUED TO CLIMB, HEAT INDICES
ALSO INCREASED QUICKLY, REACHING BETWEEN 106°F AND 109°F ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WARM TEMPERATURES AND HAZY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AS MODERATE CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE ISLANDS. IN ADDITION, VERY STABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT
THE MID LEVELS AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN, PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITING
VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT, RESIDENTS AND VISITORS CAN
EXPECT GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY, REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES, AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY, THE NASA GODDARD EARTH OBSERVING SYSTEM
MODEL V5 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF DECREASE IN SAHARAN DUST
CONCENTRATIONS, RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LESS HAZY CONDITIONS. BY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
CHANGE AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING OF THE MOISTURE
FIELD FROM A TROPICAL WAVE REACHING THE LOCAL AREA. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS. AS HAS BEEN COMMON THIS SEASON, ANOTHER PULSE OF
SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONSEQUENTLY, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
WARM, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY LOCALIZED AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO, ALTHOUGH THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION.
LONG TERM(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM AST MON JUN 22 2026
MOSTLY STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD. WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ON THURSDAY, THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. A BROAD DRY AIR MASS WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAINING BELOW NORMALS. AS A RESULT, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO BRIEF TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AND EASTERN
AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND FLOODING IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST ARE
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, PROMOTING HAZY
SKIES AND PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY. THE DRIEST DAY OF THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY. INDIVIDUALS WITH RESPIRATORY
SENSITIVITIES SHOULD CONSIDER LIMITING PROLONGED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
AND FOLLOWING GUIDANCE FROM LOCAL HEALTH OFFICIALS.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH ONLY ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS, WHILE HAZE
AND LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH SAHARAN DUST
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACTS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 211 PM AST MON JUN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. HZ RESULTING IN
REDUCED VIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 23/15Z AND EVEN EARLIER
FOR TIST & TISX. VCSH IS EXPECTED UNTIL 22/21Z ACROSS TJBQ DUE TO
SOME SHRA ALONG THE WESTERN INTERIOR. WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE E
AT 15 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS AT LEAST UNTIL
22/23Z, DECREASING AND BECOMING MORE INTO 10 TO 12 KNOTS OR EVEN
LESS, WITH LAND BREEZE VARIATION, INCREASING AGAIN BY 23/14Z. AN
IMPROVEMENT IN VIS IS FORECAST AS HZ DIMINISHES ALONG THE ISLANDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 PM AST MON JUN 22 2026
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, RESULTING IN CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
IN ADDITION, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN
DUST WILL PERSIST INTO LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING,
PRODUCING HAZY SKIES, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND POOR AIR QUALITY.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 211 PM AST MON JUN 22 2026
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST LOCAL
BEACHES, INCLUDING NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO, VIEQUES,
CULEBRA, AND PORTIONS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, WHILE A LOW RISK
PERSISTS FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PRZ001>005-007-
008-010>013.
VI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VIZ001-002.
AM...NONE.
DAY...LIS/GRS
EVE...MMC/MNG
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