132  
FNUS71 KILN 071255  
FWSILN  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG OAKS 3/4...USFWS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
855 AM EDT WED APR 7 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON APRIL 07.  
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS  
WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
..UPDATE TO INCLUDE MISSING EXTENDED ELEMENTS
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY IS WARM AND DRY AGAIN TODAY AS THE  
REGIONS SITS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW  
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVES  
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.  
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 17 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........54 57 57 67 74  
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 20 30 30  
TEMP............73 75 76 77 77  
RH..............51 50 48 47 47  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 10 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.11 13 13 13 13  
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.9 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 16 16 17 17  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 14 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........70 76 90 84 83 79 69 57 49 49 56 61  
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 30 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20  
TEMP............77 75 72 69 66 64 63 62 61 60 59 58  
RH..............48 52 59 66 75 81 81 84 84 87 87 90  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 12 11 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.8 5.8 4.9 3.3 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 12 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THEN  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.  
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 32 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING  
AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 28 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........65 74 88 91 93 97 96 95 93 89 83 69  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 50 50 60 70 70 70 60 70 60 50  
TEMP............58 57 58 60 62 64 66 67 68 69 69 69  
RH..............90 93 90 84 81 75 70 65 63 59 59 57  
20 FT WIND DIR..S SE SE S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 11 13 14 21 23 26 26 25 24 22  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 1.5 2.7 3.9 4.4 5.0 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 10 15 21 25 26 26 28 26 24 23  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...CLARK  
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN WINTERS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2108213.0/ILN  
.DELDT 04/07/21  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL BRIAN_WINTERS@FWS.GOV  
 
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