244  
FNUS71 KRLX 042050  
FWSRLX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TEA FIRE...USFS MONONGAHELA NATIONAL FOREST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
450 PM EDT THU APR 4 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1700 EDT ON APRIL 04.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A WARM FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, BUT  
IS LACKING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN. RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT,  
GENERALLY AFTER 2 TO 4 AM EDT, AND INITIALLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY, WITH  
RAIN BECOMING MORE LIKELY AFTER 8 AM EDT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW  
HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH 8 AM, WITH  
HEAVIER AMOUNTS DEVELOPING AFTER 8 AM. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL  
RANGE FROM 0.3 TO POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH.  
 
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY, BUT PLENTY  
OF LOW CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER.  
 
WINDS ACROSS THE INCIDENT SITE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE  
NIGHT, AND PRIMARILY FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN  
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20 MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE  
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  
 
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH  
DRY CONDITIONS. A SYSTEM APPROACHES LATER SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS  
RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.  
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.  
LVORI...............1.  
ADI.................37.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 5PM  
SKY (%).........67  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0  
LAL.............1  
TEMP............56  
RH..............38  
20 FT WIND DIR..S  
20 FT WIND SPD..7  
20 FT WIND GUST.11  
MIX HGT (KFT)...7.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10  
LVORI...........1  
ADI.............37  
HAINES INDEX....3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS  
OVERNIGHT, THEN RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING MORE LIKELY  
AFTER 6 AM.  
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT TOWARDS EARLY MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.  
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 15  
TO 24 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,  
THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 13 TO 14 MPH AFTER 3  
AM.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................35 DECREASING TO 19 EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 29 IN THE LATE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT DECREASING TO 12 OVERNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........71 75 78 83 88 94 93 92 92 93 94 96  
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CWR............. 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20 30 30 50 50  
CHC OF PCPN (%). 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20 30 30 50 50  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............55 54 52 51 49 47 45 44 43 42 41 40  
RH..............39 43 45 50 56 63 69 76 82 86 85 87  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 9 10 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.11 14 14 14 13 14 17 17 17 17 14 12  
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.3 4.9 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.6 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SE SE SE SE SE S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 13 17 22 24 22 18 15 14 13 13  
LVORI...........1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4  
ADI.............35 15 17 23 29 32 29 25 13 12 11 11  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY  
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS  
LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................60 PERCENT INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT EARLY IN  
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 80 PERCENT IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DECREASING  
TO 70 PERCENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING  
TO 60 PERCENT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.  
MIN HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 29 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 18 MPH.  
LVORI...............4 IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  
ADI.................12 INCREASING TO 32 EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 35 IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 28 EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........97 99 100 100 100 100 100 99 97 94 91 88  
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............60 60 70 70 80 80 80 80 70 70 70 60  
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 70 70 80 80 80 80 70 70 70 60  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............40 41 40 41 42 42 43 44 44 45 46 47  
RH..............90 85 85 85 86 89 86 86 86 86 83 83  
20 FT WIND DIR..S SE SE SE S S S SE SE S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..10 12 13 14 14 15 15 14 13 12 12 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 17 22 19 19 20 23 23 22 21 19 18  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SE S S S S S SE S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 15 16 17 18 18 18 17 16 15 14 13  
LVORI...........4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 M M M  
ADI.............12 27 33 36 38 37 36 32 28 M M M  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
 

 
FORECASTER...SL  
REQUESTED BY...TIMOTHY SEVER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1905454.0/RLX  
.DELDT 04/04/19  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.25  
 
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