646
FXUS61 KCLE 041722
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
122 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY LOWERED DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS PERSISTENT, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST OHIO.
2) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME NUISANCE AND/OR
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
3) A CHILLY AIR MASS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TODAY. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF NEAR 7 C/KM WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FEATURE, POTENTIALLY YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 MARGINAL RISK ENCOMPASSING PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OHIO APPEARS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE (MODEST WESTERLY BULK SHEAR OF
AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND A FAVORABLE DCAPE GRADIENT IN PLACE),
THOUGH RECENT GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST. IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE, MUCH OF THE AREA MAY NOT SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT.AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
ON TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO RECEIVE AT
LEAST 1 INCH OF RAINFALL, WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR UP TO 1.5
INCHES POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS,
THE RECENT WET PATTERN COUPLED WITH A WIDESPREAD RAIN COULD LEAD
TO SOME NUISANCE ROAD AND/OR MINOR RIVER FLOODING AND WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST ITERATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY-COLD AIR MASS WILL ENTER THE REGION TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR
JUST BELOW -2C. THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COLD AIR
MASS OVER THE REGION, THERE DOES EXIST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NW OH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPAND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE HIGHEST AT NW OH AND LAKESHORE TERMINALS
(INCLUDING KTOL/KFDY/KCLE/KERI) THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
MAY MOVE INLAND AND POSSIBLY IMPACT KMFD/KCAK/KYNG LATER
TONIGHT. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT/EXACT TIMING
OF STORMS TONIGHT SO AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY AS THE FORECAST
EVOLVES. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FILLS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS FAR AS FLIGHT CONDITIONS GO, VFR
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF RAIN WITH NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE DIRECTLY OVER TERMINALS. LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE
UNTIL THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT KTOL/KFDY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN NW OH BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS MAY BECOME ERRATIC AND GUSTY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE DIRECTLY OVER TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. A 40-50 KNOT
LLJ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LLWS AT MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
WEST TO EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY
RETURN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ON THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE WITH 10-15 KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KNOTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN
ON FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...15
MARINE...10
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