576
FXUS61 KCLE 281717
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
117 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN NO LONGER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH POPS TRENDING HIGHER
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO TO UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
2) RAIN SHOWERS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, BECOMING
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS HIGHS RISE TO THE UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND AROUND 80 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WEAKENING SOUTHERN-STREAM DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGH CROSSING ONTARIO
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND FRONTAL FORCING
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING SHOWER CHANGES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER SYSTEM WITH A
LOWER QPF SOLUTION. THURSDAY IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS WITH MOST OF THE MAINSTREAM GLOBAL NWP STARTING TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AI MODELS, INCLUDING THE ECWMF AIFS AND
AIGFS HAVE SLOWER SOLUTIONS AND HAVE TENDED TO OUTPERFORM THEIR
PHYSICALLY DERIVED COUNTERPARTS (GFS/ECMWF), SO WOULD EXPECT
THE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRENDING DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY INSTEAD. OVERALL QPF IS
LIKELY TO BE LIGHT (MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AT OR LESS THAN 0.5"
QPF) AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
OH/NW PA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT ANY REMAINING MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. BY
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. MOST TERMINALS WILL
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH INLAND
TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY KERI COULD HAVE LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 09Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH PERIODS
OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. NON-
VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS NORTH WINDS DIMINISH, 2-3 FT WAVES THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE
TO NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST, CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 15 TO TO 20 KNOTS AND BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...15
MARINE...SAUNDERS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page