992
FXUS61 KCLE 010738
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
338 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE OVERALL THOUGHTS FOR THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN OSCILLATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.
2) STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT CHANGES THE AIRMASS AND
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR A CHILLIER END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1:
THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL SETTLE BRIEFLY JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE
WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY. THIS IS GOING TO REPRESENT YET ANOTHER DRAMATIC
SWING IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION, WHICH WILL TAKE MUCH
OF THE CWA BACK TO THE 40S TODAY (EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES), AND THEN AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES THURSDAY, BACK TO THE
70S ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, AND BANDS OF LOW/MID LEVEL
F-GEN SETTING UP AS WELL, WHICH WILL KEEP THE RAIN OFF AND ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND LESS COVERAGE/FREQUENCY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, A BRIEF DRIER
PERIOD IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LARGELY ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN OVERALL DRIER FLOW. A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS AND
WEAK AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL PVA KEEP THE SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL
GOING THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AGAIN LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE WESTERN
ZONES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVERALL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR ANY
GIVEN WAVE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ROLLING THROUGH, WHICH IS
CRITICAL IN ORDER TO LET THE WATERSHEDS CATCH UP AFTER VERY
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED TUESDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGE #2:
OUTSIDE OF TODAY, AFTER ANOTHER PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS 70S TURN
INTO MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TAKING US TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIKELY TO BE DRIER UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
REINFORCEMENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES THROUGH FOR
TUESDAY WITH CHILLY RAIN SHOWERS, PERHAPS MIXED IN WITH WET
FLAKES TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE STRONGER CONVECTION HAS WOUND DOWN, BUT WILL GET CONTINUED
OFF AND ON RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF FOR ALL TERMINALS.
EXPECT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE OBSERVATIONS IN AND OUT OF RAIN WHERE
IFR WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL AT TIMES, BUT MVFR AND BRIEF VFR
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH OVER THE FIRST
FEW HOURS, AND WILL SEE CEILINGS DROP TO IFR BY 12Z TODAY, AND
ONCE THOSE LOW CEILINGS SETTLE IN, THEY ARE NOT GOING TO LIFT
ANY TIME SOON. SOME AMDS WILL BE NEEDED AS POP FORECASTS CHANGE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY, GENERALLY
LESS THAN 12KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
MARINE
WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE THIS MORNING, WINDS ARE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS A WARM FRONT. STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL BE PRESENT ON THE LAKE ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THE LAKE TO THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20
KTS OVER THE LAKE AND ANYTHING SLIGHTLY STRONGER COULD
NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE LAKE FRIDAY EVENING, ENDING THE STRONGER WINDS.
THIS FRONT WILL RETURN AS A WARM FRONT EARLY SATURDAY AND
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE BASIN. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ELEVATED WEST WINDS WILL BE FAVORED INTO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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