831
FXUS61 KCLE 171217
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
817 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS A
FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES
ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE. BOTH REFS AND HREF COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY ENSEMBLE
PAINTBALLS INDICATE TWO PRIMARY WINDOWS WHERE SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE INCREASE. THE FIRST WINDOW WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING INTO
DAYBREAK AS A WAVE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. AREA OF COVERAGE WILL
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OHIO. ANOTHER WAVE ENTERS
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE STORMS MAY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN ANY STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS TODAY AS BEST INSTABILITY
REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BY THIS EVENING, THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ENTERS FROM THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN BY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE LOW WILL
THEN DRAG A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST AXIS OF QPF
REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SWATH FROM CHICAGO/MILWAUKEE
EAST TOWARDS DETROIT.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MOIST AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TRACKING
FROM NEAR FDY TO MFD TO CAK. REGIONAL RADARS DEPICT NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO THAT WILL
TRACK TOWARDS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OHIO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING IF THESE TRACK NEAR FDY OR
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH, IT SEEMS FDY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE 16-18Z WINDOW BUT THAT MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. IF A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS A TERMINAL
DIRECTLY, THEN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM,
MAINLY THROUGH 18Z.
GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING LOW IFR CEILINGS WITH STRATUS. EXPECT
CEILING TO GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS MVFR THROUGH 15Z. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE TOWARDS
NORTHEAST OHIO SITES/NW PENNSYLVANIA SITES.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH
DRIER AIR ARRIVING. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
BUT THE DRIER AIR SHOULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE
TODAY, THEN INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS FOR A BRIEF WINDOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WAVES WILL BE CHOPPY GIVEN THE ONSHORE
FLOW AND WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 5 FEET ON THE CENTRAL BASIN OF LAKE
ERIE ON FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
THEN VEER TO EASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND WAVE
HEIGHTS AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD YIELD BETTER
MARINE CONDITIONS THAN A MORE PROLONGED STRETCH OF NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. ONCE THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REACH 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. A
PROLONGED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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