633
FXUS61 KCLE 020038
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
838 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..00Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE ALL OF NORTHERN OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING THE LOW 100S. LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
2) THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB REMAIN WARM IN THE 20-22C RANGE WEDNESDAY
BEFORE LOWERING SLIGHTLY INTO THE 18-20C RANGE BY THURSDAY. DAILY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOW 90S ON WEDNESDAY AND UPPER
80S ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF AS LOWS
SETTLE IN THE LOW 70S EACH NIGHT. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION, HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN NORTHERN OHIO FOR WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS HIGH, HOWEVER
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID CLEARING OF LINGERING CLOUD
COVER BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING
TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. ADDITIONALLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) ON
WEDNESDAY. HEAT LINGERS INTO THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY BEYOND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A SERIES OF RIDGE RIDERS WILL CONTINUE TO CREST ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
DAILY CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST GIVEN AMBLE
INSTABILITY (2000 J/KG MLCAPE) AND FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR (30-35
KNOTS) IN THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SOME OF THE LATEST
CAMS HAVE HINTED AT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTERING
NORTHWEST OHIO TONIGHT THOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW STORMS PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE EARLY MORNING ROUND, PARTICULARLY
WHERE THE SWODY1 SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) EXISTS. PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES,
GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNSTABLE AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS
LAKE ERIE PROVIDING ANOTHER WINDOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
IMPACT THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A SWODY2 SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY HAZARDS IN
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE FOR
TORNADOES. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH TO CENTRAL OHIO BY THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD.
TRENDING DRIER BY THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION.
WITH THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT, PWATS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
1.5-2 INCHES. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE WHERE REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION WEATHER AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO
AREA TERMINAL WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAIN ON TIMING AND WHAT AREAS MAY BE IMPACTED. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING WILL COME
IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY
AFFECTING NEOH AND NWPA BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z. WE HAVE MENTIONED
PROB30 GROUPS AT CLE, YNG, AND ERI FOR THAT POTENTIAL OF BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL STAY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS TAF WINDOW LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOR
NEOH AND NWPA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 5 TO
10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...A "BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BRING NON-VFR CONDITIONS AND
IMPACTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
LAKE ERIE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TO CROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EAST HALF OF LAKE
ERIE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ERRATIC WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTH.
A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL OCCUR BY THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS DECREASING INTO FRIDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES OF 3
FEET OR LESS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ003-006>011-
017>021-027>031-036-037-047.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ012>014-
022-023-032-033-038-089.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...77
MARINE...10
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