969
FXUS61 KCLE 312257
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
657 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020
..00Z AVIATION TAF AND EVENING FORECAST UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO
OHIO BY TONIGHT AND TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
7 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. IT IS A BEAUTIFUL EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH IN A FEW OF
THE PROTECTED VALLEYS FOR SOME PATCHY FROST. AT THIS TIME WE DO
NOT INTEND TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR. CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE THE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR
SOME OF THE RURAL PROTECTED LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30'S TO MID 40'S. SLIGHTLY WARMER CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE
WITH LOWS 45 TO 50.
MONDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND A CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60'S
ACROSS NW PA TO THE MID 70'S ACROSS NW OH.
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE BY MONDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS TO NEAR LAKE ERIE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL STALL. IT DOES APPEAR THAT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OVER MN AND WI AND FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT. IF THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES THEY
WOULD REACH NE OH/NW PA NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FEEDING
INTO THESE ELEVATED STORMS TO KEEP THEM GOING SO HAVE SOME
LIKELY POP'S IN THE FORECAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONLY DIP
INTO THE 50'S TO AROUND 60 AT MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES WILL FLATTEN
AND FLOW WILL BECOME NEARLY ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND BRING WITH IT WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK TO THE REGION.
SOME LIMITED MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA. AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT TOO COLD SO A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE
FRONT. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 70S EAST TO MIDDLE 80S WEST. FOR WEDNEDAY, AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S EAST TO AS HIGH AS UPPER
80S IN THE WEST. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES FOR
MINIMUMS AS WELL WITH LOWS AROUND 50 EAST TO AROUND 60 WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND IN THE LOWER 60S EAST TO AROUND 70 WEST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MEAN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING AND EXPANDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY AND BECOME A DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION. A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY FORCING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE IT IS DRYING UP COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY
WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S EAST TO MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WEST AND LOWS WILL BE AROUND
60 EAST TO MIDDLE 60S WEST.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AND VERY GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS FOR ALL LOCATIONS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
TO FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING IN LATE IN
THE TIME PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY NE OH/NW PA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH NON-VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH HIGHER COVERAGE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
LAKE GOT A BIT CHOPPY IN THE EAST WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES AND
OCCASIONAL 5 FOOTER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKE TOMORROW
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...GRIFFIN/MM
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...GRIFFIN
MARINE...LOMBARDY
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