319
FXUS61 KCLE 100003
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
803 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE(LEVEL 1 OF 5) AND
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
2) DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OF
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST HAVE
PRODUCED SOME WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO A SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN
MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING AND WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH DCAPE OF 1100 J/KG. ACTIVITY MAY
STRUGGLE AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARDS CLEVELAND AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR
ALOFT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO
MOISTENING THIS EVENING AND WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO SNEAK ACROSS LAKE ERIE AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES
ALOFT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS (MARGINAL RISK LEVEL 1 OF 5) IS
STILL FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
BY 00Z, PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE
IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING, SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A GENERAL UPTICK IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AGAIN AS WE DESTABILIZE ON FRIDAY ALONG THE FRONT. TRAINING OF
STORMS RESULTING IN POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN CONCERN ON
FRIDAY WITH STORM MOTION OF ONLY 10-15 MPH. HREF PROBS ARE SHOWING
SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF THREE HOUR RAINFALL EXCEEDING 3
INCHES IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY SETTLING SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
ANOTHER ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S BEHIND THE
FRONT BY SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS
STATES NEXT WEEK. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN NORTHWEST OHIO WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH
AND/OR POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZES. THE 12Z GFS WAS STRONGER WITH THE
NEW ENGLAND TROUGH THAN THE CONSENSUS AND CONTINUED WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TS ARE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING. RIGHT NOW, MOST OF THE TS
CHANCES SHOULD MISS THE TERMINALS, AS CONVECTION IS WANING OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER, SOME RESIDUAL GUST FRONTS MAY MAKE IT TO
KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG AND ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND WIND
SHIFTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OVERALL, THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING THIS EVENING, EVEN WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN BY
02Z. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME SPARSE DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE RETAINED SOME PROB30S FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, BELIEVE THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-VFR AT A TERMINAL REMAINS VERY LOW. AS FOR
CONVECTION IN EASTERN MICHIGAN OR LOWER ONTARIO, IT APPEARS
THAT MUCH OF THAT IS MOVING EAST AND SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE
AIRSPACE.
FOR FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND
COULD ALLOW FOR NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE RECENT
TREND WITH GUIDANCE IS FOR LESS CONVECTION IN THE AIRSPACE AND
MUCH MORE TO THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN OHIO. THEREFORE, HAVE NO
PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER, SOME LOW PROBABILITY
MENTIONS MAY BE ADDED IN FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
CALM MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-12 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKESHORE. WAVES WILL REMAIN 2
FEET OR LESS. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT 8-12 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN MAY RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO
1 TO 3 FEET. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT INTO NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...04
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