117
FXUS61 KCLE 250816
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
416 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
EAST OF I-71 BETWEEN 2 AND 7 PM TODAY.
2) SIGNIFICANT HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT
INDICES LIKELY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
OHIO.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BROAD MID/UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS THIS MORNING, WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH ITS BASE. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND
RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT THE AXIS OF THIS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
OVER WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS, AND IT REMAINS ON TRACK TO
PROGRESS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON. THE LATEST RAP AND OTHER HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON AN EVENING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AND THAT IS DIURNALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME SCATTERED,
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
FIRST OFF THIS MORNING, DECAYING SHOWERS ARE WORKING EASTWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
BEING SUSTAINED BY A 20-30 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET FOCUSING MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD. CONSENSUS AMONG THE CAMS IS THAT SOME OF THIS MAY
REJUVENATE NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE LIFTING WARM FRONT, AND
THIS WILL LIKELY PROLONG PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS, SPRINKLES,
AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH 15 OR 16Z. THAT CONTINUES TO ADD
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL
PLAY OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SINCE IT WILL DISRUPT SURFACE
HEATING OF WHAT IS ALREADY NOT A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS BY
SUMMERTIME STANDARDS. THE THINKING IS THAT A MESSY CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION WILL TAKE PLACE, WITH NUMEROUS MULTICELL CLUSTERS
INITIATING ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A LOT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
INSTEAD OF A MORE ORGANIZED LINE, BUT STRONG DEEP LAYER (0-6 KM)
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO AN IMPRESSIVE
90-100 KNOT H3 JET STREAK WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS AND BOWS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. A W TO WNW SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION
NORMAL TO THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AS WELL AS FAIRLY DRY MID-
LEVELS DEPICTED IN RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL AID IN SOME BOWS
AND WIND PRODUCTION, AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR ALSO SUPPORTS
SOME HAIL. THE LATEST SWODY1 MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) HAS
BEEN EXPANDED INTO MOST OF OUR CWA EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR,
AND THIS IS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND LIKELIHOOD OF
NUMEROUS, SCATTERED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE NUMBER OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HREF SUGGESTS MLCAPE REACHING AROUND 1000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS COULD BE ABOUT 500 JOULES HIGHER
OR LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. IN TERMS OF TIMING,
CONVECTION SHOULD START TO INITIATE AFTER 17Z, WITH THE
STRONGEST CLUSTERS LIKELY BETWEEN 18 AND 23Z AS THE ACTIVITY
PROPAGATES WEST TO EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING OUR AREA TO DRY OUT AS
SURFACE RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE
DRYING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE
IGNITES A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL PASS
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, IT WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM A 35-40 KNOT
LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING BACK INTO OUR
AREA NORTH OF THE RETREATING BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN SOUTH OF A FINDLAY TO
WARREN LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THE CLOSER ONE GETS TO U.S 30. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
WILL END BY MID SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES THE FRONT BACK
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE MID/UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS COVERED THE NORTHERN
TIER OF LATE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE SLOWLY RETREATING INTO NEW ENGLAND
AS A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS
WILL KEEP NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL FURTHER EXPAND AND DRIFT
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TO HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THE PAST
COUPLE RUNS OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500 MB HIGH OF 595-598 DM CENTERED NEAR THE
OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH 850 MB TEMPS AS WARM AS
25 C. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S OR
HIGHER, BUT HOW HOT WE GET ULTIMATELY DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE RIDGE AND ANY CLOUD COVER FROM NEARBY
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE (RING OF FIRE).
NEVERTHELESS, PEOPLE SHOULD FOCUS ON HEAT RELATED IMPACTS RATHER
THAN THE EXACT HIGH TEMPERATURE. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 70S
BY MONDAY, AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 F EVEN IF AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE JUST IN THE LOW 90S, AND THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT
OF 3 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HEAT INDICES THAT HIGH WILL
RESULT IN MAJOR HEAT RELATED IMPACTS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE
FIRST HOT SPELL OF THE SEASON BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN SO COOL THE
PAST 2 WEEKS THAT PEOPLE WILL NEED TO ACCLIMATE TO THE HEAT ALL
OVER AGAIN. EARLY SEASON HEAT IS USUALLY MORE DANGEROUS, SO
PRECAUTIONS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN TO STAY COOL AND HYDRATED NEXT
WEEK IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS. THE LATEST CPC OUTLOOKS HAVE A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT NEXT WEEK, AND THE NWS HEATRISK
MAP IS ALREADY SHOWING WIDESPREAD MAJOR IMPACTS, SO THE MAIN
MESSAGE CONTINUES TO BE THAT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT, PROLONGED
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LOOKING LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL,
RAIN IS MOSTLY VFR IN INDIANA AND NW OH WITH JUST SOME MINOR
POCKETS OF MVFR IN THE MOST POTENT SHOWERS. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR, HAVE JUST VFR WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN INTO THURSDAY
DAYTIME HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE OH
AND NW PA. THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN NEW ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE HOW WORKED OVER WILL THE REGION BE AFTER THIS MORNING'S
RAIN AND CLOUDS AND CAN ANY NEW ACTIVITY FORM OVER THE AIRSPACE
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AREAS OUT WEST, INCLUDING KTOL
AND KFDY, APPEAR TO BE IN THE CLEAR WITH POOR TIMING FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT. WHEREAS, AREAS FURTHER EAST, INCLUDING KCAK AND
KYNG, ARE TRENDING MORE CONCERNING FOR GETTING AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, WILL HAVE PROB30S FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
KMFD AND KCLE AND WILL UP THE CONCERN FOR KCAK, KYNG, AND EVEN
KERI TO TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR THIS
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT, RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT AND CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO VFR WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE EXPECTED OVER LAKE ERIE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST TONIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVERALL, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, OR 5 TO 15 KTS.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE LAKE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND WINDS WILL FAVOR AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLAVOR. AT
THEIR WORST, WINDS COULD BE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS AND ALLOW FOR
SOME 2+ FT WAVES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH STARTING
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL, MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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