384
FXUS61 KCLE 141836
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
236 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE AS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND WITH SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) SLIGHTLY COOLER MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT COOLED THE REGION DOWN TODAY INTO THE 50S AND 60S
ONCE AGAIN, WITH 40S OVER NW PA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL BECOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY WILL HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER TEENS, TRANSLATING TO NEAR
90F IN PLACES FOR THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON SO FAR. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRAPE ITSELF IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A RETURN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHERE
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE CLIPS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FOR LATE
SATURDAY. THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY BECOMES A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT, ASSISTING IN THE WARM UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB
TO LATE SPRING/SUMMER VALUES IN THE 65-70F RANGE AS CONVECTIVE
CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK, DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE AREA, BUT THIS WILL NOT BE A RETURN TO THE COOLER TYPE
WEATHER THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE LARGELY COMING TO AN END THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
THE 70F MARK FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS EASTERN SITES (KYNG/KERI) WILL
EXIT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXPECT WINDS TO TURN GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FRIDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL NON-VFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOWER.
MARINE
ONSHORE FLOW 15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 4
PM THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ALLOWING
FOR IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
15 KNOTS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ144>149.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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