563
FXUS61 KCLE 230156
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
956 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2019
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING OVER TOP OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK THAT REMAINS
IN SOME AREAS. CLEARING WILL BE DELAYED BUT STILL EXPECTING
SKIES TO MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE WHERE SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP OFF LAKE ERIE LATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH OF THE US-30
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. A GENERAL CLEARING TREND IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, AND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER NEAR LAKE ERIE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY, AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
A STRONGER SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY SEASONABLE
COOLER AIR ALOFT, WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 5C TO 6C. THIS WILL
CREATE ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY, WITH DECENT SYNOPTIC LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, SO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL
PUSH INLAND INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AFTER 06Z,
WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, AND AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKE. PERHAPS A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA COULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM BEGINS SATURDAY WITH THE MODELS SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES INTO OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA FROM ONTARIO. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN EXTENDED
INTO THE REGION FROM NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS AT 850MB WILL BE AROUND
7C AND COMBINED WITH THE LAKE WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER AND JUST DOWN WIND FROM THE LAKE. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY HOWEVER GIVEN THE INSTABILITY, WILL BRING CHANCE
POPS FROM THE CENTRAL BASIN OF THE LAKE INTO THE SANDUSKY AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE ENE FLOW. FOR THE AFTERNOON,
CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE SO WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST. WILL SIDE WITH THE
SLOWER/DRIER ECMWF AND KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT DRY AS WELL. MONDAY
WILL BRING CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MID
70S SATURDAY, AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MONDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES. BROUGHT
CHANCE POPS TO THE REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY TUESDAY AND BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EAST HALF
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. HIGHS AROUND 80.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT. MVFR REMAINS AT MFD/CAK/YNG AT 00Z
BUT WILL TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 02Z.
OTHER AREAS MAY SEE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS BUT WILL
GENERALLY BE VFR AND CLOSER TO 5-6K. THE EXCEPTION IS AT ERI
WHERE MVFR CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE
TOWARDS 09Z AND LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU DECK NEAR 3500 FEET WILL DEVELOP IN THE
16-20Z WINDOW. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO OHIO TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NNE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. EXPECT WAVES TO APPROACH
3 TO 4 FEET ON THE SOUTH SHORE FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT, TURNING MORE OUT OF THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. MONDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TURNING
WINDS FROM THE SSE. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREENAWALT
NEAR TERM...KEC/GREENAWALT
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...GREENAWALT
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