361
FXUS61 KCLE 021810
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
210 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AND NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING
THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INCREASING INTO THE 80S FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WITH THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION ON FRIDAY, CLOUDS
WILL START TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND WILL MAINTAIN
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES LESS THAN 90 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH ENTERING FROM THE NORTHWEST, BREAKING UP THE BLOCKING
RIDGE AND SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL, THE THEME REMAINS THE
SAME WITH THIS SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ENERGY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS,
THERE MAY BE BETTER COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE LOW, BUT CONDITIONAL, AS
CONVECTION WOULD BE OVER THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING AS THE
BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND JET SUPPORT CAN GET INTO THE AREA TO SUPPORT ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW IS RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS IS ALSO DEVELOPING AND WILL FADE
TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
NORTHEAST FLOW AND SOME CHOPPY 2 TO 3 FT WAVES THROUGH THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN THE LAKE ERIE
ISLANDS AND FAIRPORT HARBOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW ON THE LAKE AND
PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, OPENING UP THE LAKE TO SOUTHWEST, OFFSHORE
FLOW WITH 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES FOR THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY BUT SHIFT TO GENERALLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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