366
FXUS61 KCLE 090740
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASED QPF THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY ENTER THE REGION WITH PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES BY MID-WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER
BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 40-60% RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEAR
RECORD HIGH PWAT VALUES IN A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY SHOWER/STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, ANY
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED OR CONFINED TO AREAS
WHERE TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS OCCUR.
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY (800-1200 J/KG SBCAPE) AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS. AS FOR WEDNESDAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
GIVEN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE 00Z HREF SHOWS INCREASED
INSTABILITY (2000-2500 J/KG SBCAPE) AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INCREASING
TO 25-30 KNOTS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH PRIMARY
HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
OUR CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE FORECAST
IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE COUPLED WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE
ON THE RISE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING
100F WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LIMITED OVERNIGHT RELIEF AS OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EARLY SEASON HEAT IS
OFTENTIMES MORE DANGEROUS AND CAN POSE A GREATER RISK FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS. STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS OUT OF THE
SUN AND IN COOLED LOCATIONS! TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE AVIATION FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE TRICKY, LARGELY BECAUSE OF
THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WARM FRONT COMING
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE PRODUCING OFF AND
ON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THIS CREATES AN ISSUE WHERE IT IS NOT NEARLY ENOUGH FOR
PREVAILING OR EVEN TEMPO GROUPS, SO THE USE OF PROB30 BECOMES
THE BEST PLAY. HOWEVER, IT COULD BE USED IN A LARGE PORTION OF
THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS, SO THE ATTEMPT HERE IS
TO ISOLATE THE BEST CHANCE OF A TERMINAL EXPERIENCING ANY SORT
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT SAID, TOWERING CUMULUS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, AS SHOULD LOWERING CEILINGS
TO LARGELY MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME GUSTY
15-25KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS.
AMDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR LIKELY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY INCREASE TO 15KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING
TO 1-2FT AWAY FROM SHORE IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES. BEGINNING TONIGHT,
THESE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15KTS THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS, WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE MORE OFFSHORE IN NATURE, WILL BE LESS THAN A FOOT ADJACENT TO
THE SHORE AND WILL INCREASE TO 1-2FT AWAY FROM SHORE IN THE
NEARSHORE ZONES. CLEVELAND EASTWARD, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 1-2FT FOR
THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE ZONE WITH WINDS PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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