549
FXUS61 KCLE 011622
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1222 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY
WARMING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA, A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S BEFORE SLOWLY NUDGING INTO THE 80S CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS
LIKE EVERY MODEL RUNS SLOWS IT DOWN MORE AND MORE. IN THE LATEST
RUN, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL SUPPORT NEEDED FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
REMAINS FAIRLY LOW SO OPTED TO KEEP THE POP RANGE IN THE 30-50%
RANGE AT THIS POINT. GIVEN THE WEAK SETUP, NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING SEVERE AT THIS POINT, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW HEAVY
SHOWERS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MAY NUDGE EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KNOTS, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS
TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAREST THE LAKESHORE AS A WEAK LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KTOL, KFDY, AND KMFD DURING
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
LLJ NUDGES SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS. WAVES SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME, ALTHOUGH A
FEW WAVES OF 2-3 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BASIN ON TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE A BIT FROM THE
NORTHEAST. ASIDE FROM THAT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM
A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 8-12 KNOTS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST, WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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