349
FXUS61 KCLE 201722
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
122 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE END TIME OF SHOWER CHANCES HAS TRENDED A LITTLE BIT LATER
FOR TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/STORMS IS INCREASING FOR THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOCAL
AREA. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z/8 AM AND POSSIBLY THROUGH AS LATE AS 15Z/11 AM AS THE
MAIN PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOILS ARE
SATURATED IN THE AREA OF CONCERN, WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, ALTHOUGH AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LARGELY REMAIN JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
LIKELY CREEP NORTH LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE RELATIVELY ISOLATED AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
UPPER TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES MORE LAKE-ENHANCED SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY
TIMEFRAME TO MONITOR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MULTIPLE AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY INCLUDING THE
TIMING OF THE BEST FORCING/RESULTING RAIN CHANCES AND THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BEST FORCING COMES INTO
THE CWA. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR
WILL BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BY SUNDAY, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE TYPICAL
SNOWBELT AREAS OF NE OH/NW PA WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DRYING
OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LIGHT
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS (MAINLY TOL AND MFD/CAK/YNG) THROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FEW/SCT LOW-TO-MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANY REDUCTIONS TO
NON-VFR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR BR AT MFD AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK.
GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY AND
DECREASE TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL BE
FAVORED BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. NON-VFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
MARINE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BASINS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 1-3 FEET. BY THIS EVENING, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SHIFT EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE DECREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY SUNDAY WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY LEADING TO WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 2-4 FEET
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED TO END THE WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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