670
FXUS61 KCLE 141124
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
724 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF I77 THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
CONCERN REMAINS STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, ALTHOUGH AN EMBEDDED SPIN
UP TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SPC HAS ISSUED A DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE MAHONING
VALLEY AND A MARGINAL RISK AS FAR WEST AS THE I77 CORRIDOR GIVEN THE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL
IMPACT FUTURE CONVECTION.
2) AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A POTENT LOW IMPACTING THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
3) COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TODAY, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL SHOWERS
THIS MORNING SHOULD PRIMARILY BE A RESULT FROM DECAYING CONVECTION
UPSTREAM AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHING NORTH FROM SOUTH OF THE
AREA. GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING, CHANCES FOR
THUNDER ARE FAIRLY LIMITED.
A SECOND ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL BE SUPPORT BY A STRONG SHORT-WAVE PUSHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG PREFRONTAL LLJ OF 20-30
KNOTS. IN ADDITION, INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS
TODAY INTO THE 60S. THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF I77 IN OHIO AND INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA
WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION BETWEEN
ROUNDS OF RAIN. OVERALL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LINEAR AS
IT PUSHES EAST WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. SPC
HAS ALSO NOW HIGHLIGHTED THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTION OF THE CWA IN A
2% TOR FOR TODAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED ROTATION WITHIN
THE LINE. THE OVERALL OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS
MORNING WITH PORTIONS OF THE MAHONING VALLEY IN A DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
WITH A MARGINAL EXTENDING FURTHER WESTER TO THE I77 CORRIDOR. IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THE
INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL IMPACT LATER
CONVECTION CHANCES AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL IT ACTS TO STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT A BIT MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. PWAT VALUES
CLIMBING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES WITH GENERALLY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN, THE WARM CLOUD LAYERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE. OVERALL IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCALIZED
PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND IN TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS. ANY ADDITIONAL
FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION TODAY. TO HIGHLIGHT THIS HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL, WPC HAS ISSUED A DAY 1 MARGINAL ERO FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE GENERAL PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL CONSIST OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE TROUGH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
INCLUDING LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES
EAST.
THE MORE NOTABLE, AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW
ORIGINATING NEAR THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS
IT PUSHES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS POTENT SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE REGION, PUSHING A WARM FRONT EAST LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
PROMPTLY BY A COLD FRONT. SOME MODEL ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THIS
LOW BEGINNING TO OCCLUDE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, POTENTIALLY LEAVING
NORTHERN OHIO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT. SYNOPTICALLY, THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SUPPORTED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH A VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT IS, THERE IS GROWING CONCERN
REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
LLJ (SOME MODELS SUGGESTING UP TO 60 KNOTS) NUDGE NORTHEAST, FURTHER
ENHANCING THE ALREADY STRONG SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW, INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THE AREA
WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH GIVEN THE DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIMING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA MAY SEE
BETTER INSTABILITY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WOULD HINDER
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTHERN OHIO IN THE DAY 5 SWO.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THE AREA WILL
LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY AN ANOMALOUS STRONG WIND FIELD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. GIVEN THE LLJ AND MIXING HEIGHTS, THE ENTIRE AREA COULD SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45
MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND AS A DOMINANT RIDGING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
US. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEFORE
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN
PORTIONS OF NW PA, OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S, WHICH IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND WITH
THE CPC 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS BOTH SUGGESTING BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE END OF JUNE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING, BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH A
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (IN ADDITION TO MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY
IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITES) WILL ARRIVE AT KTOL AT AROUND 17Z
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHEAST TO KCAK/KYNG BY 19-20Z.
STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUICK-HITTING AND SHOULD EXIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY 22-23Z. SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT AFTER 00Z
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY
AND WINDS MAY VERY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE
FAR WESTERN BASIN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF WINDS RIGHT AROUND 20 KNOTS NEAR AND EAST OF THE
ISLANDS LATER THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME, BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW WIND
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE TREND BEFORE ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES. IF AN ADVISORY IS ISSUED, IT'D BE PRETTY SHORT-
FUSED.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WITH PERIODS OF WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE OPEN WATERS POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALE FORCE AT
TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY.
CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENTS IS HIGH, BUT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER GALE HEADLINES AND
A LOW WATER ADVISORY AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page