540
FXUS61 KCLE 082350
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN
LAKESHORE AREAS AND INCLUDES MORE OF NORTHWEST OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR NORTHWEST
OHIO AND EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE LAKESHORE THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
2) CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH
AHEAD OF IT. MEANWHILE, A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE BUT THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
IN NORTHEAST OHIO/NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. OTHERWISE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OHIO BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES. ML CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1500-2000
J/KG IN NW OHIO ALONG WITH SHEAR INCREASING THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES ALOFT. THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE
MORE OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND NOW EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG THE
LAKESHORE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE
WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH TRAINING OF STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE MEAN FLOW SET UP
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE STORM MOTION.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
INSTABILITY MAY BE KEPT TO MODEST VALUES WITH HIGHER CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. STILL EXPECTING CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY,
THE TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH. LOW POPS
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO EXPAND EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SURPASS 90 DEGREES IN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE OUR PROXIMITY TO THE
RIDGE. THERE IS A LARGER SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
BASED ON IF THE RIDGE IS OVERHEAD OR IF WE ARE ON THE DOWNSTREAM
SIDE OF IT. WILL BE MONITORING THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FADING AND SOME INTERMITTENT MID-
TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE AIRSPACE
OVERNIGHT. THE FOG/MIST/LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY
MORNING HAS GREATLY DECREASED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS
DRIED OUT THE AIR MASS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S. UNLESS LOW TEMPERATURES CAN GET TO NEAR 60 DEGREES,
THERE IS LIKELY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT
LOWER VISIBILITY OR STRATUS.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR THURSDAY
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ENTER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN
ARRIVAL IS STARTING TO BECOME MORE DELAYED AND MAY NOT REACH THE
AREA UNTIL AFTER 21Z. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY POP
UP ALONG A LAKE BREEZE BUT IT MAY BE TOUGH WITH HOW DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THAT, WILL JUST HAVE
SOME VCSH CONDITIONS AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS AND WAVES IN THE
NEARSHORE BELOW 2 FEET. THURSDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH OF THE LAKE MARKING A SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE WINDS AND WAVES, BUT WIDESPREAD
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CALM. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE NORTH OVER THE
LAKE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WITH WAVES IN THE WESTERN
BASIN BUILDING TO 1-3 FEET. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM.
THERE ARE NO ANTICIPATED MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10/SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...04
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