768
FXUS61 KCLE 201125
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
725 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON TIMING AND COVERAGE.
2) A BRIEF COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED MID-WEEK, BEFORE TEMPERATURES
RETURN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UNSEASONBLY-POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST SPC SWODY2 OUTLOOK HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK, WITH A SMALL SLIVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN AN ENHANCED
RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS, GIVEN THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR PROFILES,
THOUGH A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON BOTH COVERAGE
AND TIMING. THE LATEST HIRES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THE WARM
FRONT ON THE NOSE OF A POTENT 700 MB SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL OHIO. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING, (AROUND 11 AM) GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR, EXITING EAST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA BY ROUGHLY 2 PM. IN THIS CASE, ANY ADDITIONAL
SEVERE THREAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WOULD BE
LIMITED. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS THE MORE LIKELY ONE, GIVEN THE
OVERALL DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE FAVORED STORM MODE WITH
THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE A LARGER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW EMBEDDED TORNADOES.
A SECOND, BUT LOWER LIKELIHOOD, SCENARIO WOULD BE THAT THE
NOCTURNAL COMPLEX MOSTLY DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY MORNING,
RESULTING IN GREATER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
A SLIGHTLY LATER INITIATION TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ROUGHLY 2
PM, AND EXITING EAST OF THE AREA BY 7 TO 8 PM. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD FAVOR MORE MIXED STORM MODES SUCH AS LINE SEGMENTS AND
SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVERLAP
(MORE OF AN ALL-HAZARDS THREAT, INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, A
FEW TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S (AND
SOME PLACES UPPER 60S) ON WEDNESDAY, ONLY MARGINALLY INCREASING INTO
THE MID-70S BY THURSDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS AND EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER-80S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED FOR THIS PERIOD, THOUGH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IN HAZE DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE EARLY THIS MORNING, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY SMOKE WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH ROUGHLY 00Z
TODAY, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS
DURING THE DAY TODAY. A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AND COULD
REACH AS FAR EAST AS KCLE/KMFD BY 12Z. HAVE PREVAILING SHOWERS
WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KTOL/KFDY AND PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHOWERS FOR KCLE/KMFD TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A LAKE
BREEZE WILL ALLOW MORE NORTHERLY WINDS TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY
ACROSS NW OH AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. RESIDUAL NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
MARINE
CALM MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BUT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
LAKE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY 8 AM OR SO
TUESDAY MORNING, SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS (STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE OPEN WATERS) ARE EXPECTED WITH WAVES LIKELY
BUILDING TO 2 TO 5 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BASINS OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND PROBABLY THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND
EXPECT MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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