894
FXUS61 KCLE 022345
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
745 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL, THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING WITH A LOW-END SEVERE
WEATHER RISK MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-71.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AND
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.
2) AFTER DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS OF NOW, THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE OVER LAKE ERIE, BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BEGIN TO FILL IN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
MLCAPE VALUES TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NE OH/NW PA AND AT LEAST 500 J/KG ELSEWHERE ALONG/EAST OF I-71.
THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PWAT VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 70S, WHICH SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL RATES. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING IN
LOCATIONS WHERE MEAN STEERING FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY. THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES IN TANDEM WITH TRAINING COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING. THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
WHERE SHOWERS ARE MORE CONVECTIVE AND AT THIS POINT THAT APPEARS
TO BE MOST FAVORABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OH/NW PA. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST WESTERN ZONES UNTIL 5 PM AND
ALONG/EAST OF I-71 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
HAS ENDED FOR LUCAS/WOOD/HANCOCK COUNTIES SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
CANCEL THAT PORTION OF THE WATCH.
GIVEN THE DESTABILIZATION IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 35 KNOTS, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. THERE IS ALSO A LOW-END TORNADO RISK GIVEN THE
WIND FIELD AND LOW LCLS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY, ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW SETTLES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO RETURN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY
MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND MOVE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXITS THE GREAT LAKES. CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED BELOW 020
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AT/BELOW 010. THESE
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
NORTHWESTERN OHIO SITES WILL REMAIN LARGELY VFR. "SUNRISE
SURPRISE" MVFR FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING WHERE SOILS ARE MORE
SATURATED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR NON- VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ONSHORE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL BASINS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW
15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT (WEST OF THE ISLANDS) AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING (THE
ISLANDS TO CONNEAUT OH). VARIABLE WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY ONWARDS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR OHZ003-007.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ009>012-
089.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ014-023-033-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>148.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...27
MARINE...15
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