626
FXUS61 KCLE 190846
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
446 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM LAKE
HURON TOWARD THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. BEHIND THE FRONT, A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE RIDGE EXITS
EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SWEEPS NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY AS A LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ALOFT, WSW'ERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA TODAY BECOMES W'ERLY TONIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES E'WARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TOWARD THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE REGION AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SHIFTS E'WARD BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH'S ATTENDANT LOW MOVES NE'WARD
FROM LAKE HURON TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
THIS LOW TRACK WILL ALLOW THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
SE'WARD THROUGH OUR CWA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR CWA
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE EMBEDDED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME
HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 60'S TO MID 70'S. A SE'WARD GRADIENT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST TODAY. LOW-LEVEL CAA AND PARTIAL
CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO REACH THE MID
30'S TO LOWER 40'S IN NW PA AND THE UPPER 30'S TO UPPER 40'S IN
NORTHERN OH AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE FROM WSW TO ENE THE REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY DUE TO THE FOLLOWING REASONS:
1.) A SW'ERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT RESULTS IN
ENHANCED MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT JUST ALOFT, WHICH WILL RELEASE
WEAK TO PERHAPS MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE.
2.) LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, WHICH WILL RELEASE WEAK TO PERHAPS MODERATE SURFACE-BASED
AND ELEVATED CAPE AS CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF AND LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING LATER TODAY
ALLOW AN INITIALLY ELEVATED EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER TO BECOME
SURFACE-BASED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
3.) MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD
FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RELEASE WEAK AND ELEVATED CAPE.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL END GRADUALLY FROM NW TO SE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT, INCLUDING ITS UPPER-REACHES, EXITS TO THE SE AND
STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.
THUS, FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY, IN
THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION. MODERATE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO BE ORGANIZED. WSW'ERLY MEAN MID-
LEVEL FLOW WITH A LARGE COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT.
DESPITE THE EXPECTATION OF UNUSUALLY-HIGH PWAT VALUES ALLOWING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, FAST
MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAST SHOWER/STORM MOTIONS
AND GREATLY CURB THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE LATEST SPC
CONVECTIVE WX OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ROUGHLY WATTSBURG, PA TO UPPER SANDUSKY, OH
AND POINTS TOWARD THE SE. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OCCURRENCE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IS LOW. HOWEVER,
SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE AMIDST A SURFACE-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER, STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MUCAPE GROWING TO NEAR 400 J/KG IN THE
HAIL GROWTH ZONE, AND ATMOSPHERIC MELTING LEVELS NEAR 10KFT AGL
MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DCAPE INCREASING TO
NEAR 500 TO 750 J/KG MAY ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
STRAIGHT-LINE CONVECTIVE WIND DAMAGE.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE
ACCOMPANIES THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL CREST E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE SURFACE PORTION OF
THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXITS SLOWLY E'WARD IN RESPONSE TO THE
EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW N'ERLY
TO E'ERLY SURFACE WINDS TO TRANSPORT COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO OUR
REGION. HOWEVER, PEEKS OF SUNSHINE WILL PERMIT SOME DAYTIME
HEATING. LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50'S
NORTH OF ROUGHLY THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER 50'S TO
UPPER 60'S ELSEWHERE IN OUR CWA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD START DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND ALLOW THIS FRONT TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH THIS
FEATURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD INTO THE 70S FOR
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AND BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR STORMS, BELIEVE THAT THERE WON'T
BE ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR. HAVE POPS
DECREASING FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE QUICK TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN INFLUENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY DESPITE MOVING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA. WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO
MOSTLY IN THE 70S. FOR THURSDAY, THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER
UNCERTAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL
UNDERCUT AN UPPER RIDGE AND THERE WILL BE SOME BETTER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS UP TO THE MID 50S. HOWEVER, THERE
ISN'T MUCH CLARITY ON WHAT MAY FORCE RAIN, AS THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE SLOW AND SHOULD LARGELY BE A FRIDAY PROBLEM. THEREFORE, WILL
OPT FOR LOW POPS ON THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION BUT THE PRECISE TIMING OF THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND THERE COULD STILL BE RAIN IMPACTS INTO SATURDAY.
THEREFORE, WILL JUST RAMP UP POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ALOFT, WSW'ERLY TO W'ERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
06Z/SUN AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES E'WARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO QC AND VICINITY AND A RIDGE BUILDS E'WARD
BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. AT THE SURFACE, THE ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE'WARD FROM NEAR LAKE HURON TO NEAR THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE THROUGH 06Z/SUN. THE LOW TRACK WILL ALLOW THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SE'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN ~14Z/SAT
AND ~20Z/SAT. BEHIND THE FRONT, A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH 06Z/SUN.
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL CAUSE OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TO
VEER FROM SW'ERLY TO NW'ERLY. THE SW'ERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUST UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.
NW'ERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND
VEER GRADUALLY TOWARD N'ERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. WIDESPREAD LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/SUN. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IN
THE RANGE OF 1KFT TO 5KFT AGL.
A STRENGTHENING SW'ERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION GENERALLY FROM
WSW TO ENE THROUGH 14Z/SAT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END GRADUALLY FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN
~21Z/SAT AND ~02Z/SUN. BRIEF IFR AND BRIEF/ERRATIC SURFACE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND
ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS. NOTE: SINCE SW'ERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE FAIRLY WELL-ALIGNED WITH THE SW'ERLY LOW-LEVEL JET, LOW-LEVEL
TURBULENCE RATHER THAN TRUE LLWS IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
MARINE
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STABILIZED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
GUSTS AT BAY, BUT THE REPRESENTATIVE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REMAIN
WITH 15 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATED MARINE
OBS COMING IN A BIT STRONGER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AND DECREASE.
THERE WILL BE SOME FOG OVER THE LAKE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS, WAVES WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA.
THE FRONT WILL SLOUCH ALL OF THE WAY SOUTH TO THE OHIO RIVER AND
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER TONIGHT. FOR SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST WILL LIFT THIS FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND WINDS WILL
FLIP TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY. THE LOW
WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR MONDAY AND EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THERE
COULD BE A NEED FOR A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE. WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AND WAVES COULD BUILD UP SLIGHTLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND FLOW WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS AND BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JASZKA
NEAR TERM...JASZKA
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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