969  
FXUS61 KCLE 312257  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
657 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
   
..00Z AVIATION TAF AND EVENING FORECAST UPDATE
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO  
OHIO BY TONIGHT AND TO THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. A WARM  
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  
EARLY THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
7 PM UPDATE...  
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. IT IS A BEAUTIFUL EVENING  
ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD  
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH IN A FEW OF  
THE PROTECTED VALLEYS FOR SOME PATCHY FROST. AT THIS TIME WE DO  
NOT INTEND TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED  
TO MONITOR. CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE THE PATCHY FROST MENTIONED FOR  
SOME OF THE RURAL PROTECTED LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER 30'S TO MID 40'S. SLIGHTLY WARMER CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE  
WITH LOWS 45 TO 50.  
 
MONDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND A CHANGE IN WIND  
DIRECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON.  
HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60'S  
ACROSS NW PA TO THE MID 70'S ACROSS NW OH.  
 
MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE BY MONDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT  
LIFTS TO NEAR LAKE ERIE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS  
BOUNDARY WILL STALL. IT DOES APPEAR THAT CONVECTION WILL  
DEVELOP OVER MN AND WI AND FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO  
OVERNIGHT. IF THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES THEY  
WOULD REACH NE OH/NW PA NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY.  
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FEEDING  
INTO THESE ELEVATED STORMS TO KEEP THEM GOING SO HAVE SOME  
LIKELY POP'S IN THE FORECAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONLY DIP  
INTO THE 50'S TO AROUND 60 AT MOST LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES WILL FLATTEN  
AND FLOW WILL BECOME NEARLY ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST TUESDAY  
NIGHT AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT  
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION  
TUESDAY AND BRING WITH IT WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK TO THE REGION.  
SOME LIMITED MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA  
WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY  
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD  
FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BECOME  
NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA. AN INCREASING THREAT FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT  
WITH THE FRONT. AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS NOT TOO COLD SO A  
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE  
FRONT. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE  
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE  
LOWER 70S EAST TO MIDDLE 80S WEST. FOR WEDNEDAY, AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT, LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S EAST TO AS HIGH AS UPPER  
80S IN THE WEST. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES FOR  
MINIMUMS AS WELL WITH LOWS AROUND 50 EAST TO AROUND 60 WEST TUESDAY  
NIGHT AND IN THE LOWER 60S EAST TO AROUND 70 WEST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MEAN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW  
THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING AND EXPANDING  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY  
SUNDAY AND BECOME A DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION. A  
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT  
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY.  
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE  
AREA THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE  
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES  
FRIDAY FORCING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE  
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS  
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF  
LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE IT IS DRYING UP COMPARED TO  
YESTERDAY SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY  
WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE  
UPPER 70S EAST TO MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WEST AND LOWS WILL BE AROUND  
60 EAST TO MIDDLE 60S WEST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND VERY GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR  
THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS FOR ALL LOCATIONS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR  
TO FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING IN LATE IN  
THE TIME PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT  
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY NE OH/NW PA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
WITH NON-VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH HIGHER COVERAGE EXPECTED  
ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LAKE GOT A BIT CHOPPY IN THE EAST WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES AND  
OCCASIONAL 5 FOOTER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TODAY.  
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKE TOMORROW  
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MM  
NEAR TERM...GRIFFIN/MM  
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY  
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY  
AVIATION...GRIFFIN  
MARINE...LOMBARDY  
 
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