655
FXUS61 KCLE 042310
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
710 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MARKS THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL
DRIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF CHANCES OF
SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY
EAST OF I-71. ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH AND SLOW-MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WHILE THERE'S
POTENTIAL THAT MOST OF THE AREA COULD BE BETWEEN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST AND WEST, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NW OH AND THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
LOCAL AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY GIVEN DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND
PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO POSSIBLY EVEN 2 INCHES. THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK IS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING/SHEAR.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS IS HIGHEST ON FRIDAY AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS (SOME
POSSIBLY STRONG) CAN'T BE RULED OUT SINCE SHEAR WILL BE HIGHER,
BUT WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MUCH WE DESTABILIZE BEFORE PEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT EARLY DAY SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FRIDAY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO MEAN FLOW PARALLEL TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
A BREAK IN SHOWERS/STORMS IS POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AND DISTURBANCES RIDE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR. FEW-SCT045 CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED WITH HEATING WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH CAK MAY REACH BKN045. WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS AT THE
SURFACE ANYWHERE FROM SW TO WNW DEPENDING ON TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS, AND
OCCASIONAL STORMS, WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY, AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
OVERALL WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BE LIGHT WITH SPEEDS 12 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. WAVES WILL BE GENERALLY 1
TO 2 FEET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. DAILY AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED ERRATIC WINDS AND WAVE CONDITIONS. NO
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...26
MARINE...77
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