596  
FXUS61 KCLE 261142  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
642 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR ERIE, PENNSYLVANIA  
BY THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH  
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH  
SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION LAGGING BEHIND. TEMPERATURES  
ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE FORECAST HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING  
THIS MORNING WITHE DEWPOINTS AT 32 DEGREES OR HIGHER AS WELL. WE  
FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE A LARGE PORTION OF THIS AREA  
FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS EXPECTED, THE NORTHWEST  
PORTIONS AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS STILL HAVE POCKETS THAT ARE  
BELOW FREEZING IN BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT. SO, WILL  
CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. OTHERWISE, WE WAIT FOR THE  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH AND USHER IN COLDER AIR TO  
THE AREA AND CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER TO  
SNOW. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER AND ADVISORY HEADLINES AS  
APPROPRIATE AND MENTIONED ABOVE.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
 
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST  
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE IS CONSISTENTLY PROGGED IN ALL OF THE MODELS TO MOVE  
NORTHEAST TO APPROXIMATELY ERIE, PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  
THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION  
ENDING THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL  
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE  
FREEZING RAIN IN LUCAS COUNTY AND ALSO INTERIOR ERIE COUNTY AND  
CRAWFORD COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING BEYOND 12Z.  
OTHERWISE, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A  
SWATH OF RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE  
AREA AT THIS TIME AND THIS COULD VERY WELL BE THE LAST OF THE  
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST  
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WRAP AROUND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL  
TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WILL  
RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW OF ANY REMAINING  
PRECIPITATION. A GRADUAL TAPERING OF ANY REMAINING SNOW WILL  
TAKE PLACE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A  
RETURN BACK TO FAIR WEATHER ALL AREAS BY THE END OF THE DAY.  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ENCOUNTER SOME  
WARMER AIR ADVANCING NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
TODAY. HOWEVER, ONCE THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, COLD  
AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE  
20S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS  
TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY LOB SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. SOME  
LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO  
MUCH. OF MORE INTEREST IS THE COLDER AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE WITH  
A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON POSSIBLE. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE IS  
NOT ALL THAT MOIST BUT DO THINK THAT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS  
WILL MATERIALIZE. THESE CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE A BIT ON THURSDAY  
AS A CLIPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO INTO NY STATE  
WITH A REINFORCING SURE OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE BEST  
ENHANCEMENT TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY  
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM  
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SNOW FALL  
AMOUNTS. FOR NOW THINK SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THESE LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NE OH INTO NW PA  
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER  
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  
 
HIGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO 20'S. LOWS EACH  
NIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. COLDEST NIGHT  
LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS  
INLAND NW PA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRY DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. THIS HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD  
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO FAST WITH ITS EASTWARD  
PROGRESSION SO HAVE FAVORED THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS  
TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY. SINCE WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION WE MAY BE  
ABLE TO AVOID SOME OF THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL  
START THE EVENT WITH SOME SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO  
RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN OHIO WITH SNOW  
PERSISTING ACROSS NW PA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WE CHANGE BACK TO  
ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STILL  
ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW TRACK SO PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL  
LIKELY VARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.  
 
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH MID 20'S TOP MID 30'S  
EXPECTED. WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30'S. IF THERE ARE ANY  
BREAKS IN THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH WE COULD SEE A COUPLE LOCATIONS  
TOUCH 40 DEGREES. WE THEN COOL A BIT FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY  
BETWEEN 32 AND 35 DEGREES. LOWS THROUGH THE LONG TERM MOSTLY IN THE  
20'S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE  
FREEZING AND THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED. FREEZING RAIN  
IS STILL POSSIBLE AT TOLEDO, AKRON-CANTON, AND YOUNGSTOWN  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH AT  
ERIE THAT THE THREAT THERE HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL. CEILINGS WILL  
BE LIFR THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH  
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD IN THE WEST. BRIEF  
PERIODS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN ANY  
REMAINING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE,  
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IMPROVING AS WELL.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR  
POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA IN LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL  
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO AROUND ERIE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL  
KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING.  
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL GOING ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE MORNING KEEP  
WAVES IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY THROUGH 1 PM. WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN OF THE  
LAKE WILL RISE A BIT MORE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BELIEVE IT WILL  
TOP OUT AROUND 68 INCHES. SO AT THIS POINT WE DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY  
FLOODING ISSUES ALONG THE LAKESHORE OF THE WESTERN END OF THE LAKE.  
 
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW  
AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD INTO NY STATE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK AS IF  
THEY WILL NOT EXCEED 15 KNOTS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME MINOR CONCERN  
THAT WINDS COULD OVERACHIEVE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY  
FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. THIS REGION COULD SEE WAVES BRIEFLY BUILD  
TO AROUND 4 FEET. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING TO EXTEND  
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.  
 
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN VARY IN STRENGTH THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND  
NORTHWESTERLY FETCH MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO GET WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO  
5 FEET FROM THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE TO PRESQUE ISLE. THIS MAY OCCUR  
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR WILLOWICK TO CONNEAUT AS A  
CLIPPER LOW MOVES FROM ONTARIO INTO NY STATE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES  
ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR  
OHZ006-007-010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
OHZ003.  
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
PAZ001>003.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
LEZ142>149.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY  
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY  
SHORT TERM...MM  
LONG TERM...MM  
AVIATION...LOMBARDY  
MARINE...MM  
 
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