847
FXUS61 KCLE 042346
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
746 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEAR TERM SEVERE THREAT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED DUE TO
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST
WINDOW FOR IMPACTFUL CONVECTION OVER THE AREA IS LATER THIS
EVENING IF THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES UPSTREAM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A MORE UNCERTAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER THIS EVENING.
2) ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS
STABILIZED THE AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN OHIO. INSTABILITY GRADIENT
HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND
WEAKENING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO MAY FURTHER REINFORCE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD.
CAMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ASSIMILATE ONGOING CONVECTION/PRECIP
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT
UPSTREAM/OVER THE AREA IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
INSTABILITY SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AND LIMITED TIME
FOR RECOVERY/ADVECTION INTO THE LOCAL AREA. STORMS WILL BE
MOSTLY ELEVATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH SOME HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. IF STORMS DEVELOP ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, THERE COULD BE A DAMAGING WIND RISK AND A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR A TORNADO, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND DECREASING AT THE
MOMENT. HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE A THREAT WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH
TRAINING STORMS AND/OR AREAS WITH SATURATED SOILS DUE TO RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND A SOUTHEAST MOVING SHORTWAVE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE FRONT DEPARTS, A FEW
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST UNDER THE HIGH
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A BRIEF WARMUP INTO MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MID TO
LATE WEEK BEFORE ADDITIONAL HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KFDY AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IN THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS IS MUCH
LOWER TO THE NORTHEAST SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF
GUIDANCE/RADAR TRENDS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. OTHERWISE, MOST TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AND AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NE
OH/NW PA. KERI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS
(BUT STILL MVFR). FOG WILL LIFT BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY WITH
STRATUS CLEARING AND VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 6 TO 12 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON- VFR POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
WAVES AROUND A FOOT OR LESS THROUGH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT COMING THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS THEN COME AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST 10-15 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 2-3 FT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS IN THE CENTRAL BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS TOWARDS THE VICINITY OF
CLEVELAND. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST
AND NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...15
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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