195
FXUS61 KCLE 110802
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
402 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A CONCERN FOR TODAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. OUR WIND GUST FORECAST CONTINUES TO
TREND UPWARD FOR FRIDAY'S STRONG CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INCLUDING THE THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
2.) BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1:
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS MORNING'S
CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. ALMOST THE ENTIRE
AREA REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY. THERE
IS A WEAKENING MCS MOVING INTO NWOH AND THE TOLEDO AREA THIS
EARLY MORNING. THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BARELY
SLIPPED SOUTHWARD INTO NWOH AS WELL. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT,
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT TEMPS IN THE
40S.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THROUGH SUNRISE, THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
NWOH. THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE MURKY ON HOW THE CONVECTION
WILL EVOLVE LATER IN THE DAY. WE KINDA LIKE THE SOLUTION FROM
THE LATEST 3KM NAM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO AND TRACK
EASTWARD INTO NWPA BY MIDDAY. A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NWOH WITH THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUING TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF I-75 AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO TURNPIKE LATER TODAY.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
FOLLOWED BY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO THREAT. SOME LARGE HAIL
MAY BE POSSIBLE. ANY KINKS OR SURGES IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION
WILL FAVOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND A QLCS TORNADO THREAT AS
WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING
WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
KEY MESSAGE #2:
IT WILL TURN COLDER ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A
STRONG CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER
IN THE 50S. THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY
WILL BE WITH THE WIND. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH VERY POSSIBLE. THE WIND
GUSTS HAVE TRENDS UPWARD FOR FRIDAY AND WILL BE MONITORING FOR A
POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET ON SATURDAY BEFORE A BIGGER WEATHER
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A
TRAILING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE SYSTEM LIGHT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING BOTH THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOWBELT MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL
BE MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AND INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA, USHERING IN
BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND PEAK WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS,
PRIMARILY IMPACTING TOL. A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING WHICH COULD HAVE MORE BROAD IMPACTS TO THE
TAF SITES, INCLUDING BRIEF IFR VSBY DROPS AND PEAK WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 35 KNOTS. FINALLY, WILL BE MONITORING THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE US-30 CORRIDOR AND PRIMARILY IMPACTING
MFD/CAK/YNG WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND PEAK WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON, THUS WENT WITH PROB30 AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING, 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING, 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY TO RETURN IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS LAKE ERIE AS
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO 20 TO
25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, 20
TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN IS ON FRIDAY
AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST
CYCLES. IF GALE CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP, THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WOULD LIKELY NECCESITATE THE NEED FOR LOW WATER ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN OF THE LAKE.
THE FINAL PERIOD OF CONCERN IS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
CLIMATE
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH RECORDS MARCH 11TH.
HERE ARE THE RECORD WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES AT AREA CLIMATE SITES FOR
MARCH 11TH.
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
03-11 76(1990) 72(1990) 73(1977) 72(1977) 70(1977) 72(2021)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
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