870
FXUS61 KCLE 102353
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
753 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT HAVE INCREASED A BIT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BATCH OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL QUICKLY SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
2) HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE IS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF THE FRONT. SOMEWHAT DRY LOW-LEVELS MEAN
THERE'S A BIT MORE BARK THAN BITE TO THE RADAR, WITH ANY RAIN
AMOUNTS UNDER 0.05. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS EAST OVERNIGHT, TAKING
THE RAIN WITH IT AND ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NOT AN IDEAL SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME IN TYPICAL LOW-LYING/
LESS URBAN AREAS THAT ARE MOST PRONE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM BOTH HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES ON
FRIDAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL THERE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
LIKELIHOOD OF DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING. DEW POINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY
SO IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID. ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
AS A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FAVORED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ANY RESULTING IMPACTS/HAZARDS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN, FALLING OUT OF AN 8000-10000 FOOT CLOUD
DECK, IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING.
WHILE A FEW SITES WILL BRIEFLY OBSERVE -RA, NO RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED. HANDLED WITH A VCSH MENTION AT MOST SITES. THIS RAIN
AND ITS MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL EXIT EAST THROUGH 5Z. THERE
WILL BE A WINDOW OF RELATIVELY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND STILL HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR
BR AT A FEW TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND HINTS AT WINDS
STRUGGLING TO GO TRULY CALM OVERNIGHT HAS LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN
MORE WIDESPREAD/IMPACTFUL FG/BR COMPARED TO THE PRIOR TAF CYCLE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTER ANY EARLY FG/BR
CLEARS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT <7KT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT MORE EAST-NORTHEAST BUT
REMAIN UNDER 10KT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE LAKE AT SOME POINT SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIMITS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
BASINS AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AT THE VERY LEAST, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
MODERATE SWIM RISKS. WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEEPENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15/SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...15
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