300
FXUS61 KCLE 042315
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY WHICH
MAY BRING A BRIEF WINDOW FOR RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH ONLY UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS POSSIBLE. BEHIND THIS FRONT, AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION,
USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR FROST POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURE MAGNITUDE (UPPER
30S) WHICH, IN CONJUNCTION WITH SCATTERED CLOUD COVER, COULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL FROST THREAT. MEANWHILE, THE FROST POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO DECREASE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A FASTER ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY CROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20
TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR AS A DRY COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY 10KTS, WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS
15-20KTS FOR ERI/YNG MONDAY. NO CEILINGS BUT SOME DAYTIME FLAT
CUMULUS POSSIBLE AT ERI/YNG AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
MARINE
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASINS OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT USHERS IN
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. A PERIOD OF STRONGER OFFSHORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, 15 TO 25
KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE HIGHER WINDS
AND WAVES ARE FAVORED IN THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY, 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ146>149.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...26
MARINE...KAHN
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