218
FXUS61 KCLE 181115
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY.
2) AFTER A DRY PERIOD LATE WEEK, UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THAT TIME, BUT THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF ALL LOCATIONS SEEING AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN AT SOME POINT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE EARLY-MORNING
ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
LOW AT THIS POINT SINCE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MAY NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF US-30 INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, BUT THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS TRENDING WETTER DUE TO AN UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY/SUNDAY. PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE/TIMING DUE TO SOMEWHAT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE SPEED/MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE, IT LOOKS THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE LAKE-ENHANCED ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN CAN'T BE
RULED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO DIG
INTO THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS AND TIMING THIS EARLY IN THE FORECAST
CYCLE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS. PATCHY BR/FG IS THROUGH 13Z AWAY
FROM THE LAKE, AND IS MOST LIKELY AT KMFD AND KYNG. A LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z,
THOUGH WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN OR DWINDLE BEFORE REACHING
KCAK/KYNG. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO
8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST, SHOULD SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS, WITH SOME LOW POTENTIAL TO BRIEFLY REACH 20
KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WAVES BUILD TO A PEAK OF 2-3 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WE
CAN GET 20 KNOTS, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT WAVES DESPITE
THE WIND DIRECTION BEING NEAR PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENTS.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO PARTS OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL RISK IS LOW BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER WIND GUST IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE.
THE COLD FRONT CROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS
QUICKLY BECOMING NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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