525
FXUS61 KCLE 191924
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
324 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN COUNTIES
UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING. SOME CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
DESTABILIZING AREA ACROSS NW OH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES HAVE
SURGED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS STRONG WINDS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST TO DETERMINE IF ANY EXPANSION IS
NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED IN SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. PRIMARY
THREAT REMAINS STRONG WINDS, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
2) A BIG COOL DOWN IS ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
3) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS FAR
NEOH AND NWPA, KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER THAT PORTION OF THE AREA AND
LIMITING KEEPING DESTABILIZATION AT A MINIMUM RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER,
ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES, CLOUD DECKS HAVE SCATTERED OUT AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY ROSE INTO THE LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S, TRENDING TOWARDS THE LOW 70S. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SB CAPE
ALREADY IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CLOSE TO 8 C/KM. THE BEST SHEAR WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 15-25 KNOT RANGE.
GIVEN THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MAIN LINE
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST LATER THIS EVENING. DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG ADD CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRIMARY HAZARD CONCERN WITH ANY
CONVECTION WITH BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SMALL HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN THE DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
LINE. THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW, ALTHOUGH NOT ZERO, GIVEN
THE BEST SHEAR IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. ANY QUICK SPIN UPS THAT
DO OCCUR WOULD LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OF CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. THE FINAL CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOST DEVELOPED CELLS, THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED PONDING ON
AREA ROADS. MODELED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT BRIEF TRAINING OF CELLS
COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD COINCIDE IN
TIMING WITH AN INCREASED WARM CLOUD LAYER AND PWAT PUSH. OVERALL
CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING THIS EVENING REMAINS LOW, BUT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL WPC HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ERO TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LATE TONIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA, MARKING A TRANSITION BACK TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
20 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY, ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S AS 850MB OF 5-7C NUDGE SOUTH OVER THE AREA. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT FULLY PUSHES SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE DRIES EVERYTHING OUT THROUGH THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY,
THAT MEANS THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE RATHER DREARY AS CLOUD COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA LINGERS BEFORE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE RETURN ON THURSDAY.
TO COMPLIMENT DAYTIME HIGHS, OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT, THERE IS NO CONCERN FOR A LATE SEASON
FROST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED AS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS A NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CWA. INITIALLY, THIS BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA, MARKING A TRANSITION BACK TO
WARMER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. THEN THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EBB AND FLOW OVER THE CWA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGHS PUSH EAST. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA, MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL RESULT IN
POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND POTENTIAL AERIAL
FLOODING WHERE RAIN PERSISTS. WPC HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA
IN A DAY 4 MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ERO. THE THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE ISOLATED TO DAYTIME HOURS AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY ADDS ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, BUT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HITTING ALL TERMINALS IN
THIS FORECAST COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY AS THUNDERSTORMS
SET TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AROUND 20Z AND SPREAD EASTWARD.
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN STORMS EXPECTED WITH IFR AS WELL FROM
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES IN ONGOING STORMS. AHEAD OF THIS,
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 20-30KTS AT THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT
WILL TRAIL THE CONVECTION TONIGHT, SWITCHING WINDS AROUND FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THEN EVENTUALLY THE
NORTHEAST HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS LOWER IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT TO MVFR, WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN PERIODIC SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30KTS OVER THE WESTERN BASIN AND
15-25KTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. AT
THAT POINT, WINDS WILL COME ONSHORE IN THE WAKE OF THAT FRONT,
NORTHWESTERLY 10-15KTS LATER TONIGHT, AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT 10-15KTS, AND THEN 15-20KTS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED IN THESE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WEEK. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND 10KTS FOR THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OCCURRED AT ERIE, PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL APPROACH RECORD VALUES AT SOME LOCATIONS
AGAIN. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORDS FOR MAY 19.
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>144.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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