480
FXUS61 KCLE 062348
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND HAVE
PRODUCED SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNTIL 11 PM
THIS EVENING. KEY MESSAGE 1 HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE
INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO BEEN
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.
2.) AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY, HEAT WILL BUILD NEXT WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF AIR TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY MAY CAUSE HEAT INDICES
TO EXCEED 100 BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF ABOUT 730 PM EDT, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDED FROM OTTAWA COUNTY THROUGH NORTHERN
ASHLAND/SOUTHWESTERN MEDINA COUNTIES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS PRESENT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE. AS OF
NOW, THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE ON THE LEADING/SOUTHEASTERN END OF
THIS LINE WHERE THERE IS MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE STORMS HAVE TRAINED AND WORKED
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER. THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS IS FOLLOWING A
SOMEWHAT TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT SO EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH 11 PM
TONIGHT, BUT IT'S LIKELY THAT SOME (IF NOT ALL) OF THE WATCH
WILL BE GRADUALLY CLEARED AS THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK CONTINUES
TO DWINDLE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HYDRO SINCE STORMS ARE
TRAINING A BIT, ALTHOUGH THE MORE RURAL LANDSCAPE AND DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE FIRST OFFICIAL HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK
(TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 90 FOR 3 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS). AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DIGS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. AND CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AN
UPSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. THIS
RIDGE WILL BECOME STRONGEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH SWINGING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S MONDAY THEN
LOW 90S TUESDAY AS DEW POINTS INCREASE. THIS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES
WELL INTO THE 90S TUESDAY. AN OLD CUT OFF LOW/SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER, SO TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRIEFLY BACK OFF INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S. HOWEVER, EXPECT THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD AND SW FLOW DEEPENS.
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY INTO THE LOW 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S
WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY OVER 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE NWS HEATRISK MAP SHOWS WIDESPREAD MAJOR IMPACTS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS, SO HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED LATE IN THE WEEK.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT A POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT START TO BREAK THE HEAT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN OHIO, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION MISSES MOST
TAF SITES BEFORE WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY.
HAVE VCSH/PROB30 GROUPS FOR TERMINALS THAT MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL MAKE AMENDMENTS
IF CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION INCREASES AT ANY GIVEN SITE. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND LOWER CEILINGS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY
04Z, ALTHOUGH INLAND TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR LIKELY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE
ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ELEVATED WAVES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT CAN CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THIS LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LAKE FOR
MONDAY AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE
LAKE FOR TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE FAVORED.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FAVORED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
THE LAKE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS DURING AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE BEST
MIXING. OVERALL, NOT EXPECTING ANY MARINE HEADLINES AFTER
TONIGHT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15/GARUCKAS
AVIATION...15
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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