638
FXUS61 KCLE 102035
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
335 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND ERIE COUNTY
PENNSYLVANIA FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM MONDAY FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW. ALSO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A FASTER TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HAVE MORE OF
AN IMPACT ON THE EVENING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINTER RETURNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
SNOWBELT.
2) WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
3) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SETTING UP TO END THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONDITIONS REMAIN MILD THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAIN WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT WITH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT WRAPPING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. AN INITIAL ROUND
OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE LOCALLY AROUND A
HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SOME SEMBLANCE OF A MID-LEVEL DRY-SLOT BRINGING A BREAK IN SNOW
SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT
THE SURFACE TOWARDS MIDDAY ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS RAMP UP QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND ACCUMULATING SNOW FOCUSED
PRIMARILY IN THE SNOWBELT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT BRIEF, ONLY LASTING 4-6 HOURS IN OHIO WITH
A LITTLE LONGER DURATION IN PENNSYLVANIA. THE OHIO SNOWBELT
WILL TEND TO RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN GEAUGA COUNTY WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR ERIE
COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. THERE WILL BE SOME COMPONENT OF SNOW SQUALLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS WILL BE FEEL
MUCH COLDER AS THEY DROP INTO THE TEENS.
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND MOISTURE WILL DRY
OUT AT 700MB IN OHIO BY 00Z WHILE MOISTURE DOWNWIND OF LAKE HURON
ALONG WITH NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE EVENING IN NW PENNSYLVANIA. INTENSITIES WILL DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY THOUGH AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL TEND TO
BE AN INCH OR LESS DURING THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. A LOW
LEVEL JET WITH SPEEDS OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL PASS OVERHEAD AT 850MB BUT
MIXING DEPTHS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH ABOUT 2K FEET. WINDS GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING 40-45 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FOLLOWING THE WARM UP ON TUESDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS.
TRENDED FASTER WITH BRINGING THE COLDER AIR IN WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL RESULT IN PRIMARILY SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SOME SPREAD REMAINS AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE 12Z/10 GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT
A SLOWER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH MORE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER LAKE ERIE WHILE
THE CANADIAN FAVORS A MORE CONSOLIDATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY 06Z THURSDAY AND MORE SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS.
BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO
DEVELOP A SWATH OF MORE ORGANIZED SNOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA ON
THURSDAY AS THAT SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY CURLS NORTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY PARTICULAR STORM TRACK THIS FAR OUT AS
MODELS STRUGGLE TO GET A HANDLE ON THE LONG RANGE BUT OPPORTUNITIES
FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS WILL CONTINUE WITH CONSIDERABLE ICE-FREE
AREAS ON LAKE ERIE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WAVE OF RAIN LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MVFR
LOWERING TO IFR. THIS RAIN WILL MOSTLY EXIT BY 00 TO 02Z
ALLOWING FOR BRIEFLY DRY CONDITIONS THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT AND CIGS IMPROVING TO AT LEAST MVFR WITH PERIODS OF
VFR TOO. AS THE LOW DEPARTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 05 AND 08Z, AND THIS WILL CAUSE FLUCTUATING
VISIBILITIES THROUGH SUNRISE. A BETTER, MORE WIDESPREAD PUSH OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS WILL ACCOMPANY A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT/TROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON,
SO WENT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR AT THAT
TIME.
LIGHT ENE WINDS WILL BECOME SW AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON,
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS. WSW WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
OF 20-30 KNOTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES AREA-WIDE IN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PERSISTING SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR NE OH AND
NW PA. NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NE OH AND
NW PA THURSDAY.
MARINE
ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS, AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE MODESTLY DEEPENING. WSW WINDS WILL FIRST
INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE
TONIGHT, FURTHER INCREASING TO 25-35 KNOTS FROM MID SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE TURNING WNW BEHIND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 9 TO 14
FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FROM 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY FROM AVON POINT TO
RIPLEY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FARTHER WEST OVER THE REST
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
WNW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
QUICKLY TURNING SW BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STRONG SW WINDS AS ANOTHER LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY, WITH CORRESPONDING SW WINDS INCREASING TO
15-30 KNOTS.
BRIEFLY QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION MID WEEK. SSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-30 KNOTS TUESDAY, TURNING NW BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR LEZ144-145.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
LEZ146>149-166>169.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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