531
FXUS61 KCLE 272251
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
651 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER, ASIDE FROM
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE DISPLACED JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 70S, LOWS IN
40S/50S), POTENTIALLY CHALLENGING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH NEAR THE GEORGIAN
BAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE SEVERELY LACKING AND WEAK FORCING WILL LIMIT
RAIN POTENTIAL, WITH ONLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ARE BIT HIGHER (40-50%) IN ERIE, PA
WHERE LAKE ERIE MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND USHERING
"COOLER" BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST, BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT
BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLE QPF MEAN CALLS FOR AROUND 0.25" WITH VERY LOW
PROBABILITIES OF AN ISOLATED 1", WHICH MEANS THIS RAIN WON'T BE
VERY IMPACTFUL. HOWEVER, LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 3-8 KNOTS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT
3-9 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BKN HIGH CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT WILL NOT IMPACT
AVIATION CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS 1-3 FT DECREASING TO 1 FT BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOME NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 2-4 WAVES THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL
BASIN. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ON FRIDAY, BECOMING EASTERLY BY SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
WE ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD WARMTH ON
THURSDAY. HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR OUR SIX
CLIMATE SITES ON OCTOBER 29TH:
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...04
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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