312
FXUS61 KCLE 041825
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
225 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON (3 TO 7 PM), GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE US-30 AND I-
71 CORRIDORS. THE FORECAST IS ALSO BRIEFLY TRENDING DRIER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE US-30 AND I-71 CORRIDORS BETWEEN 3 TO 7 PM. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
2) PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
3) TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BEFORE BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOWARDS MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST SURFACE AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A BOUNDARY
ROUGHLY DRAPED SW TO NE ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, IN ADDITION TO A DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE GENERALLY
ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR EAST OF CLEVELAND. ANTICIPATE AN UPTICK
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS GENERAL AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE STORMS EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST. ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FOR POTENTIAL
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE US-30 CORRIDOR (STILL EAST
OF I-71), LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES MORE W TO E- ORIENTED AND STALLS. ALTHOUGH FOR THE MOST
PART, DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING, (25 TO 30 KNOTS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA), OTHER THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS
(STRONG SBCAPE, DCAPE, AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES) REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR A DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT AND PERHAPS SOME
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, MAINLY
BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 8 PM,
AND PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 9 AND MIDNIGHT, RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
DECREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS STABLE AIR BRIEFLY ENTERS THE
REGION. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BOTH FROM THE NORTH (ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE) AND THE
WEST (INDIANA), THOUGH THE OVERALL TREND APPEARS TO FAVOR A BRIEFLY-
DRIER FORECAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE STORY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES EAST
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT, GIVEN A LACK OF STEERING FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS,
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND ANOMALOUSLY-HIGH PWATS AROUND 1.80
INCHES. SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING (MAINLY RATE-DRIVEN UP TO
2" PER HOUR) IS POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS PERSIST, THOUGH GIVEN THE
CONTINUED CHANCES INTO MONDAY, WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR AREA
RIVERS FOR SOME MINOR RISES. AT THIS TIME, THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF
FLOW, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF WET
DOWNBURSTS IN THE STRONGEST CELLS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
INTO THIS EVENING AS HEAT INDICES REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100. ANTICIPATE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL (LOW TO MID-80S), THOUGH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES MAY
RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90., THOUGH HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS AND EVENTUAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORMS WILL BE KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG
WHICH ARE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. THE BEST WINDOW FOR
IMPACTS TO A TERMINAL WILL BE 19Z-23Z. STORMS SHOULD STAY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF KCLE GIVEN THE LAKE BREEZE. LATER TONIGHT, SOME
STORMS IN INDIANA SHOULD DEVELOP AND MAY PASS CLOSE TO KTOL
AFTER DARK. THERE SHOULD THEN BE SOME REPRIEVE IN CONVECTION
THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THEN, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION. THERE
COULD BE SOME HEAVIER RAIN THAT MAY BRING SOME MVFR VSBY AND
CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK TO MOST OF THE TERMINALS. SOME
BACKBUILDING OF RAIN WITH THE LOW ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED
AND HARD TO GIVE CONFIDENCE WHEN RAIN WILL END/BREAK ACROSS THE
REGION AND HAVE JUST KEPT TAFS SIMPLE WITH RAIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN
NORTHWEST WITH THE BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS
WILL THEN VARY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE ON NORTHEAST FLOW FOR
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NON-VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ALSO POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEHIND A LAKE BREEZE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ENTER FOR SUNDAY AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE LAKE AND STRENGTHEN TO 15 KTS AND WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2
TO 3 FT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS. THIS UNFAVORABLE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS
OF 10 KTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SWITCH WINDS BACK TO SOUTHERLY,
OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IF WINDS CAN
INCREASE JUST A TOUCH FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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