386
FXUS61 KCLE 281143
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
743 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE ATTENTION IS ON
THE FORTHCOMING BUILDING HEAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT BUILDING AND DEWPOINTS RISING THIS WEEK.
2) STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY, BUT THE MAIN
FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THIS HEAT WAVE WILL BE THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. TOPPING OUT AROUND 597DKM, IT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MIDWEEK TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE THE HOTTEST DURING THIS PERIOD,
AND EXPECT 850MB TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 22-24C RANGE. AT THE
SURFACE, THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE BULK OF THE
CWA FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND EVER SO SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE OTHER COMPONENT OF THIS FORECAST TO WATCH WILL BE
THE DEWPOINTS, WHICH WILL OSCILLATE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWERS 70S
RANGE. TOGETHER, THIS TRANSLATES TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100S.
COULD GET A LITTLE WIND, HOWEVER, AND 8-12KTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
THIS WEEK COULD PROVIDE SLIGHT RELIEF AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 70S WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH RECOVERY, AND THIS COULD EASILY TURN
INTO A CUMULATIVE ISSUE IN TERMS OF OVERALL HEAT FOR THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
EXPECTING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND, PUTTING THE AREA BACK INTO THE FRINGE OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD ALLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BACK INTO THE
REGION, AND POTENTIALLY THE RETURNING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. WILL
NEED TO WATCH HOW DETAILS UNFOLD, AND IF THERE CAN BE ANYTHING
ORGANIZED THAT CAN COME THROUGH THE REGION, ALONG WITH ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES AT LEAST BACK TOWARDS THE LOWER 90S FOR THIS
PERIOD, BUT STILL ON THE HOT AND HUMID SIDE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE A MIXED BAG WITH VFR
TO THE NORTH AND LIFR TO THE SOUTH. THE NON-VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
KCAK AND KYNG. OVERALL, THE CONFIDENCE IN A SHOWER OR STORM
HITTING EITHER TERMINAL IS VERY LOW AND HAVE CONTINUED TO OMIT
FROM THE TAF. CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIFT TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
INTO THE AIRSPACE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST TO NORTHEAST
AND LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...VFR.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SUPPORT LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER LAKE
ERIE. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FOR MONDAY AND ALLOW A
WARM FRONT TO ENTER THE REGION, WHICH WILL SHIFT FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE LAKE WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER
THE LAKE FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AVERAGING 10 KTS. NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RECORD WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED. HERE ARE THOSE RECORDS
FOR EACH OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS:
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
06-29 100(1952) 96(1934) 94(2012) 98(1952) 99(1933) 90(2021)
06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930)
07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018)
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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