608
FXUS61 KCLE 130714
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
314 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY GENERALLY
NEAR OR WEST OF I-77.
3) PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS DUE TO YESTERDAY'S RAIN, AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT FAVOR
FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES (E.G. HANCOCK TO KNOX COUNTIES) WHERE THERE COULD BE
GREATER COVERAGE OF FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE BROADER REGION
HAS SAGGED SOUTH TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE BROADER
NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED.
THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN DISPLACED TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
AFFECTING PARTS OF NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS
GENERALLY WEST OF I-77 WITH OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (HANCOCK TO
KNOX COUNTIES) SEEING THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY, WITH
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY MOVING WEST TO EAST. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT, THOUGH A FEW MODELS DO LINGER THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE MORNING OURS, DEPENDING ON THE SPEED IN WHICH
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL SHEAR
MAY PRODUCED AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AS ALWAYS,
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF GREATEST
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT THIS TIME FRAME IS WORTH KEEPING AN
EYE ON.
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS ONCE AGAIN FOG AS AN INVERSION
SETS UP OVER WET GROUND. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS GIVE SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL BE, BUT CONTINUED TO BRING IN
LIFR VISIBILITIES AT TYPICAL FAVORED LOCATIONS (KFDY, KMFD,
KCAK, AND KYNG) AND MVFR TO IFR ELSEWHERE. ONCE THE FOG BURNS
OFF THIS MORNING, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE, SO
KEPT MVFR CIGS THROUGH LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR IS
THEN EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE BAND OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWESTERN AREAS IS TRENDING FARTHER
SOUTHWEST, SO LIMITED VCSH TO KFDY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W TO NW
AT 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE START OF
THE WEEKEND AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE WEAK. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME ENE AT 5-10 KNOTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE TURNING SE AT 5-10 KNOTS SATURDAY
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE LAKE. WINDS WILL TURN SW AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY SUNDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT, TURNING WINDS NNW AT 10-15 KNOTS
FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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