989
FXUS61 KCLE 260756
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OUR TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY HAS
TRENDED LOWER IN OUR REGION BASED ON THE LATEST EXPECTED
EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WE
NOW EXPECT ABOUT 0.25" OR LESS NORTH OF ROUGHLY U.S. ROUTE 30
AND APPROXIMATELY 0.25" TO 0.60" ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
2.) WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING MOST OF THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
VICINITY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT APPEARED TO EXTEND
SW'WARD ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE, JUST WEST OF CLEVELAND, JUST
WEST OF MANSFIELD, AND JUST EAST OF MARION AS OF 2 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE'WARD, EXIT THE REST
OF OUR CWA BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD SETTLE IN
VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OH VALLEY BY MIDDAY TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SLOWLY FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOWS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT. ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER
IN OUR CWA THIS MORNING COURTESY OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION
VIA NOCTURNAL COOLING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND STABILIZING
SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE. CLOUD
BREAKS, LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL, AND
WEAK OR CALM SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PERMIT PATCHY RADIATION MIST
OR FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. BY MID-MORNING,
ANY MIST OR FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE VIA DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
DURING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, PERIODS OF RAIN, STEADY
TO HEAVY AT TIMES, SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST COURTESY OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF A PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SINCE THE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT MAY RELEASE WEAK, YET SUFFICIENT AND PRIMARILY ELEVATED
CAPE. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY, LINGERING AND
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END
GENERALLY FROM WNW TO ESE AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXITS
GENERALLY E'WARD AND THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AMIDST STABILIZING
SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE. THE GREATEST RAINFALL IN OUR
CWA IS EXPECTED ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30. THIS
IS WHERE PERIODS OF RAIN SHOULD BE MORE-PERSISTENT SINCE THAT
PORTION OF OUR CWA WILL BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT,
FRONTAL SURFACE LOWS, AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE 70'S LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GREATER SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD PERMIT SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS IN THE 70'S TO 80F
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE
UPPER 50'S TO LOWER 60'S AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
RESPECTIVELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WARMING TREND AND INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THIS
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
FROM NEAR THE MS VALLEY TO NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA, WHICH WILL CAUSE OUR REGION
TO BECOME LOCATED WITHIN A SYNOPTIC-SCALE LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST
AIR ADVECTION REGIME FROM THE GULF AS WE BECOME LOCATED ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE RIDGE. DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE FROM THE 80'S TO LOWER 90'S ON MONDAY TO
MAINLY THE UPPER 80'S TO MID 90'S ON THURSDAY. DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES MAY REACH THE 100F TO 105F RANGE IN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA ON
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STAY TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES AND
POSSIBLE HOT WEATHER ALERTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MODERATE FROM
MAINLY THE UPPER 50'S TO UPPER 60'S AROUND DAYBREAK ON MONDAY TO THE
70'S AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AS RELATIVELY-
STRONG AND STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUR REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIPPLE GENERALLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT, ARE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE TROUGH AXES,
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXES RELEASE AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. SOME STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND TIGHTEN THE
ISOBARIC HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT, WHICH IN TURN SHOULD YIELD AT
LEAST MODERATE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE AIRSPACE IS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS MORNING WITH
A SYSTEM DEPARTING TO THE EAST INTO NEW YORK AND A SYSTEM THAT
WILL IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD STILL
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME, SOME
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW FOR
18-24 HOURS OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA. THIS MORNING, RESIDUAL
MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION. SOME PATCHY CLEARING
IN NW PA HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME STRATUS TO FORM BUT IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO REACH KYNG AND KERI. ANY BREAKS DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY BEFORE
SUNRISE, PRIMARILY AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SPOTS AFTER THURSDAY'S
RAINFALL, INCLUDING KYNG, KCAK, KMFD, AND KFDY.
DRY AIR AND EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN TO BE DELAYED ACROSS THE AREA BY
SEVERAL HOURS AND HAVE PUSHED BACK RAIN MENTIONS IN THE TAFS.
ANY MVFR WITH RAIN SHOULD BE AFTER 00Z AND MAY TREND LATER.
THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AND ELEVATED AT THIS TIME AND HAVE
OMITTED FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN FOG/MIST SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DEPARTING TO
THE EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE LAKE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE EAST. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL ENTER THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL PICK UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
SUSTAIN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT A WARM
FRONT OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FAVORED. OVERALL, MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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