977
FXUS61 KCLE 272028
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
428 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2021
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD SOUTH OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE MAJORITY OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE QUIET WEATHER
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES THANKS TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING IN THE EASTERN REACHES OF
THE CWA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A
FEW SPOTS IN INTERIOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MAY VERY BRIEFLY
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS OVERNIGHT - ANY
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT IF CLOUDS
CLEAR MORE THAN ANTICIPATED THERE MAY BE MORE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FROST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES, BUT INCLUDED
PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT (MOST
LIKELY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT) AS ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
PRECIP, BUT HAVE POPS RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AROUND 00Z, WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOCALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIP
POSSIBLE BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ROTATE NORTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AND
PROLONGED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ON LAKE ERIE. DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL FOCUS MOISTURE
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE
BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NEW YORK WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT STARTING TO WRAP NORTH INTO THE SYSTEM. BREAKS IN
THE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHTER
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, LAKE ENHANCED RAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO ON
SATURDAY AND MORE TOWARDS THE SNOWBELT REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE SHIFTS FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL AND
ROTATE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER, LOWERED HIGHS ON FRIDAY
BY A COUPLE DEGREES CLOSER TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MOIST SYSTEM
WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL SPREAD WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID
40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS AND HOW LONG
IT TAKES FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PULL AWAY. THESE CLOSED
SYSTEMS CAN OFTEN EVOLVE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED SO WILL MAINTAIN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT INTO SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A WEAK
TROUGH NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
LAKE ERIE SO CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE A LOW
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW AND
WILL NEED ADJUSTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE A FEW SIGNS OF CLEARING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A MORE OPTIMISTIC OUTCOME FOR
KTOL/KFDY. CLEARING IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA AND THIS TREND SHOULD BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DEVELOP AT KERI BY 00Z AND EXPAND WEST TO KCLE BY 04Z
AND KFDY/KTOL BY 15Z THURSDAY AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
18Z THURSDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
6 TO 12 KNOTS BY 12Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
QUEBEC AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25
KNOTS LATE THURSDAY, THEN TO 30 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT A MINIMUM EXPECT TO NEED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. WE WILL BE
MONITORING FOR ANY STRONGER PERIODS OF WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALES. THE PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN
RISING WATER LEVELS ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE AND WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE LAKESHORE FLOODING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
DECREASE BELOW 20 KNOTS. BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE
WEST AT 10-20 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH
OF THE LAKES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAINES
NEAR TERM...MAINES
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MAINES
MARINE...KEC
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