502
FXUS61 KCLE 251129
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS NOW A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
2) A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION BEGINNING ON SUNDAY,
BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF I-77 AS MID TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 300-500 J/KG. PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK TODAY AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS EAST ALLOWING FOR AN
UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THOUGH THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LOCATION, COVERAGE, AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
A DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY,
PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HAZARDS IN ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ON SUNDAY WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AS A POTENT
TROUGH AND STRONG MID-LEVEL JET DIVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ENTIRE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL JET, A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING
WIND IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OHIO. SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
EXITS TO THE EAST. TRENDING DRIER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONTINUES AFTER PATCHY MORNING BR. W/SW WINDS LESS THAN
10KTS TODAY. ANOTHER FL045 CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 16Z. ISOLATED SHRA NEAR ERI/YNG BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
WINDS TRANSITION FROM THE STRONG ENE FLOW YESTERDAY TO LIGHT
ONSHORE WESTERLIES TODAY WHICH WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS. DUE TO
THE ONSHORE NATURE, WAVE HEIGHTS MAY STILL REMAIN AROUND A FOOT.
WINDS THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY 5-10KTS SUNDAY, INCREASING TO
10-15KTS MONDAY, AND THEN 15-20KTS MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AWAY FROM SHORE DURING THIS
PERIOD, BUT WITHIN A MILE FROM SHORE, LIKELY A FOOT OR LESS.
AFTER THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT, WINDS
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY 10-20KTS, THEN NORTHERLY TUESDAY
NIGHT 10-20KTS, AND THEN 5-15KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT 2-4FT, DECREASING TO 1-3FT MIDWEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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