804
FXUS61 KCLE 221132
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS ARRIVED FOR THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. TODAY, PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 30S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. BY
TONIGHT, SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN, WHICH COUPLED
WITH A WAA REGIME, WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S WHICH IS A BIT WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY BREAK THE FREEZING MARK, CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 30S. MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OBSERVED RECENTLY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
15 TO 25 MPH ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S AND
TUESDAY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL FAVOR A MILD START WITH A
COOL DOWN BY THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S AGAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS
IN THE 30S NEXT FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
REGION.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5-10
KNOTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MORE TERMINALS
WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS BETWEEN 18-23Z. IN
ADDITION, GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NON-VFR IS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NON-VFR
MAY RETURN IN SCATTERED TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20
KNOTS ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A LOW
PRESSURE MOVING TO THE NORTH OVER HUDSON BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO BE WESTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LAKE ON WEDNESDAY.
LAKE ERIE IS PRIMARILY ICE-COVERED. THEREFORE ANY WAVES IN U.S.
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE FOOT THROUGH THIS TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE REMAINS SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
FOR NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RIPLEY DUE TO EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...04
MARINE...77
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