710
FXUS61 KCLE 250745
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
345 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON THE COLD FRONT AND TIMING, BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT THIS ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
2) THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATE TONIGHT, HAVE POPS INTRODUCED WITH A WEAK BATCH OF PVA IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, KICKING OFF SHOWERS CONCENTRATED MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE CWA. THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
CLIPS THE CWA WITH LOW END BUT NON-ZERO CHANCES. MEANWHILE, THERE IS
SIMULTANEOUSLY A WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWER COMPONENT THAT WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA ON THURSDAY EXPANDING THE LOW
END POPS TO MUCH OF THE CWA. MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY DRY DURING THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
BUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS CANNOT BE EXCLUDED FROM THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SLIGHT RISK DAY 2 FROM SPC HAS BEEN EXPANDED A FEW COUNTIES
FURTHER TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE I-77 CORRIDOR OF THE CWA. STILL
LOOKING AT 50-70KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY
DRIVER FOR THE SEVERE THREAT. SBCAPE HAS BEEN ONE OF THE PARAMETERS
IN QUESTION WHICH MAY TAKE UNTIL 21Z THURSDAY TO MATERIALIZE AS THE
LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER NEEDS TO ERODE WHILE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CWA AFTER 23Z THURSDAY WITH THE DEVELOPING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE A
MULTI THREAT SCENARIO WITH WIND, HAIL, AND TORNADIC POTENTIAL ALL
POSSIBLE IN A HIGH SRH ENVIRONMENT. ALONG WITH THIS SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE PWATS WHICH WILL HIT THE 1.5 INCH MARK, AND THUS AN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL THREAT AS WELL.
COLD FRONT PASSES, AND TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AGAIN
WITH BRIEF LIGHT WET SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY DAY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE UPWARD TREND AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WNW'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AFFECT
OUR REGION THROUGH 06Z/THURS. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISTURBANCES.
WIDESPREAD VFR AND DRY WEATHER PERSIST IN NORTHERN OH AND NW PA
AS A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXIT SLOWLY E'WARD. OUR
REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
~14Z/WED. THEREAFTER, S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/THURS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NOCTURNAL AND SW'ERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS
AT/NEAR 925 MB IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
REGION-WIDE AFTER ~03Z/THURS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
MARINE
PRIMARILY S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS SLOWLY
E'WARD. WAVES REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP SE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY EVENING AND CAUSE SW'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS TO VEER TO NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND FRESHEN
TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 3 TO 6
FEET AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD BE NEEDED. BEHIND THE FRONT,
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY
NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND EASE GRADUALLY TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WAVES INITIALLY AS LARGE AS 3 TO 6 FEET SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR LESS BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING.
ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT LAKE
ERIE AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TOWARD VA AND VICINITY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO DRIFT
GENERALLY N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY, WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD BACK GRADUALLY FROM N'ERLY TO SW'ERLY TO
S'ERLY. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
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