066
FXUS61 KCLE 141043
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
643 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM MARION TO MOUNT VERNON EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE POP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY HAS
BEEN INCREASING AS CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IMPROVES. A
SMALL AREA (APPROXIMATELY FINDLAY TO MARION) WAS UPGRADED TO A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY
FOR MOST OHIO COUNTIES (EXCLUDING FAR NORTHEAST OHIO).
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE US-30 CORRIDOR. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
FROM APPROXIMATELY MARION TO MOUNT VERNON THIS MORNING.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY, THOUGH FORCING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER EXTENDS WELL
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM, LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED SOUTH OF A WOOD TO
WAYNE COUNTY LINE. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO
AS FAR AS A TOLEDO-LORAIN-AKRON LINE BUT THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN
IS LIKELY TO RAIN TOWARDS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (MARION TO
KNOX) WHERE THE LATEST HRRR CYCLES PROJECT AN INCH OF RAIN. THE
RISK FOR >2" OF RAIN AND SUBSEQUENT FLOODING IS LOW BUT NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, SO WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
THAT THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND WE SHOULD BE COMPLETELY RAIN FREE BY AROUND 21Z.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT PERIOD FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A HIGHLY-
ANOMALOUS MOIST AIR MASS, CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS EXCEEDING 2.0
INCHES, WHICH IS APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM, ENTERS
THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FROM FINDLAY TO
MARION.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TRENDING THE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA AS ANY
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY FOCUS ALONG THE
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA,
INCLUDING KFDY AND KMFD, WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VISIBILITIES.
ELSEWHERE, BR HAS RESULTED IN MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH
PERIODIC AND PATCHY IFR VISIBILITIES. RAIN WILL SCATTER OUT AS
IT EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF KTOL/KCLE AND AROUND
KCAK BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD RETURN
AREAWIDE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BECOME EAST-
NORTHEAST WHILE INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
MARINE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND
TOMORROW. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH
SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGS A WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY FOR OFFSHORE FLOW REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS SATURDAY, THOUGH PROBABILITIES OF WINDS > 20
KNOTS AND WAVES > 4 FT INCREASE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR THIS
PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page