616
FXUS61 KCLE 070713
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
313 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE ARE NO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THERE IS INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAT THE REMNANT
TROPICAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION LATE
THIS WEEK WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) THE FORECAST IS NOW INCREASINGLY LOOKING WETTER OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE GULF
REGION MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE STILL INCONTROL NEARBY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARDS TODAY AND A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. BLUE SKIES AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY WILL
FAVOR WARMER HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON, CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
70S FOR NWPA AND NEOH. MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OHIO. A MAINLY DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE
A COUPLE SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER FAR
NEOH AND NWPA THIS EVENING, BUT MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAINFALL. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE AVERAGES FOR
EARLY OCTOBER, MIDDLE 60S TO A FEW LOW 70S. RELATIVELY QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY BEFORE SOME
CHANGES ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF
AMERICA AND WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION LATER
THIS WEEK MAY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. FORECAST
GUIDANCE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOW INCREASING FOR THE REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB
BACK UPWARDS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES THANKS TO SOME
SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE APPROACHING REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO STAY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. DESPITE
RAIN CHANCES LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE AND MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 8
TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK AND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS EVENING WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
THE WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. BOUYS ARE SHOWING WINDS
ALREADY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW AS OF 3 AM. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT SHORTLY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL NEARSHORE AND LATE
EVENING FOR THE EASTERN NEARSHORE ZONES. THAT END TIMES FOR THE
SCA MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENTS OR EXTENSIONS IF THE ELEVATED
WINDS LINGER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AROUND 15 KNOTS AND WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND WAVES UP TO 4 FEET POSSIBLE. THAT
WILL BE SOMETHING FOR US TO MONITORED WITH FUTURES MARINE
FORECAST UPDATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER LAKE ERIE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A ONSHORE FLOW OF 8 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE OFFSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY ON THE WIND FLOW AND DIRECTION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A REMNANT TROPICAL
LOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND. WINDS
MAY BE SHIFTING AROUND DEPENDING OF THAT LOW TRACK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ144>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ147>149.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...15
MARINE...77
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