041
FXUS61 KCLE 110732
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
332 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO
RECEIVING 1 TO 2+ INCHES OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AND ANOTHER 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TODAY,
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN OHIO
FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM THAT HAS
IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND NOW INTO THURSDAY. THE DRY
WEATHER HAS BEEN DELAYED INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MOST IMPACTFUL STORMS WILL BE TODAY AND TONIGHT,
AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA, BRINGING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO
THE REGION.
2) DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, GIVING A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL TAPER OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE
REGION.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEAST OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THIRD COMPLEX
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY IS ALREADY BREWING IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL ARRIVE
IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA RIGHT AROUND
DAYBREAK. WITH THE LATEST STORMS WIPING OUT MUCH OF THE
INSTABILITY AND A STRONG NEAR SURFACE STABLE, THE UPPER BOUND OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT AN ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME MARGINALLY ACCEPTABLE 0-3KM SHEAR AROUND 30
KTS IN THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME SEVERE LATER IN THE MORNING (MUCH LIKE
MONDAY) AS THE SURFACE STABILITY WANES WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE BIG SHOW FOR TODAY WILL BE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP WITH A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE FRONT MINNESOTA AND IOWA.
THIS LINE HAS GREAT POTENTIAL TO BE A HEALTHY, SEVERE MCS WITH
AMPLE INSTABILITY OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT SUPPORT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THE ANGLE OF THIS COMPLEX WILL LARGELY TAKE IT
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER, THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF THIS LINE COULD REACH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AND BRING SEVERE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO THE AREA.
IF THIS COMPLEX DOES BECOME ORGANIZED AND ENDS UP MORE INTO THE
AREA, THEN THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR 75+ MPH WIND GUSTS.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO
RECEIVING 1 TO 2+ INCHES OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AND ANOTHER 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TODAY,
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN OHIO
FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY.
ONCE THIS LARGER MCS EXITS THE REGION, THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WANE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MAKE A RESURGENCE INTO REGION LATER
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND HELP SUPPORT
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING IS BECOMING MORE LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT
STARTING SO FAR SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT RETURNING AND LASTING INTO
THURSDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL WITH STORMS ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
DELAYED IN ENTERING THE REGION UNTIL FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER AND LESS HUMIDITY INTO THE REGION, GIVING SOME RELIEF
FROM THE ACTIVE AND HUMID CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK. A
DELAYED SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BE A WELCOMED TREAT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S WITH THE
COOLER SYSTEM OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
AND SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING RAIN CHANCES STARTING ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BULK OF
THE WET WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA OVER THE FEW HOURS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY MOVING INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 15Z THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY BE AROUND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
BEHIND THE STORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS WITH
PREVIOUS DAYS, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE/TIMING OF
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SO AMENDMENTS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA. ANY STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC AND STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL LARGELY BE OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CEILINGS
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF STORMS AT TIMES AS WELL. NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE
THE AVERAGE FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE LATER TODAY AND MAY SHIFT FLOW MORE TO THE
WEST. THIS COMPLEX WILL DRIVE A FRONT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LAKE
AND MAY ALLOW FOR MORE VARIABLE FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LARGER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE
LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE BASIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING A WINDOW OF EASTERLY FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>011-017>021-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...15
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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