078
FXUS61 KCLE 150631
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
231 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OHIO TONIGHT.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. LOW PRESSURE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF WINDOW OF COOLER CONDITIONS,
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 80S FOR MOST AND THE UPPER 70S FOR
EASTERN ZONES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE THE SWODY1
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) REMAINS.PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW
GIVEN THE DISJOINTED TIMING OF BEST INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM,
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
THESE STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. THE WPC MAINTAINS THEIR DAY
1 MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS RECENT RUNS OF THE HREF AND REFS
HIGHLIGHT STRIPE OF 6-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES IN THEIR LOCALIZED PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEAN PRODUCTS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON IF ANY STORMS
WILL REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS MID TO LATE WEEK GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. DESPITE THIS, A VERY WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH
RANGE. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL,
PARTICULARY IN TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY, THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
MONDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXITING OUT OF THE REGION. ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM, WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A MIX OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ENTERING WITH A WARM FRONT.
SOME LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY AND SOME MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF 20 TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, BRINGING LOWERING CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. WITH THE FRONT ON A SLOWING AND
WEAKENING TREND AND ENTERING DURING A DIURNAL MINIMUM, RAIN WILL
BE FAIRLY SCATTERED AND ANY THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO
NORTHWEST OHIO, WHERE SOME PROB30S FOR TS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED.
OTHERWISE, THE BULK OF RAIN ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
THE TAF PERIOD AND TS CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY
FOR MOST SITES.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
OFFSHORE FLOW BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT
NORTHERLY AND DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH LATE WEEK AS THE COLD FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...13
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