839
FXUS61 KCLE 211809
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
209 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER REGARDING THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY, PUSHING IT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
TO PUSH NORTH LATE FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
2) HIGH PRESSURE MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST AREA
TOWARDS THE REGION. AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
EVENING, OVERRIDING MOISTURE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE OVERRIDING HAS SLOWED A BIT, PUSHING THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND HAVE
OPTED TO REFLECT THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST. BY FRIDAY EVENING, MUCH
OF THE AREA SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING RAINFALL. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY
WILL BE THE THUNDER POTENTIAL, BUT GIVEN SOME MODELED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES, HOWEVER NOTHING SEVERE
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LATE SATURDAY, THE WARM FRONT WILL FINALLY
PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN SHOWERS TO SPREAD
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD
RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, ALLOWING
FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK AS IT PUSHES EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ON
MONDAY, SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA, LEAVING
MUCH OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S, GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS HOW MUCH
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE RETURN OF A MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING OVER 1.5". RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE BULK OF THIS WATER
WILL BE HANDLED WELL, HOWEVER SOME AREA RIVERS MAY RISE INTO FLOOD
AND TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS MAY SEE PROBLEMS. GIVEN THE TIME
SPAN, FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL WITH A HIGHER RISK OF
GRADUALLY WATER RISES. TO HIGHLIGHT THIS HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD
CONCERN, WPC HAS KEPT THE OHIO COUNTIES IN A DAY 2 MARGINAL (LEVEL 1
OF 5) ERO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE AREA, A
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE NORTH, ALLOWING FOR A MORE SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS TO RETURN. AN
ASSOCIATED HIGH AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT
A MINIMUM THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY CLIMBING TOWARDS THE
80S. GIVEN THE SOURCE OF THE AIRMASS, HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO CLIMB WITH PEAK RH VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 50%. THESE
HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN THE EXACT
DETAILS GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THAT IS. THIS WARMTH LOOKS LIKELY TO STICK
AROUND AS THE LATEST CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK SUGGESTS ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THAT THE CHANCE IS GREATER AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 8 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY TODAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT KERI
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS EXPECTED. GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN RAIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HEADLINES ENDING FROM
THE EAST STARTING FRIDAY EVENING. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TO 15 TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WAVES WILL BE
HIGHEST AT 5 TO 7 FEET IN THE CENTRAL BASIN DURING THIS TIME,
INCLUDING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLANDS.
WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE, ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN BASIN THROUGH
SATURDAY. HEADLINES MAY NEED TO CONTINUE IF WINDS TREND HIGHER.
WINDS BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OHZ003-
007-009-010.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR OHZ011-012-
089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page