710
FXUS61 KCLE 191750
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
150 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS AND QPF HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FOR TONIGHT, RESULTING
IN AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ALSO INCREASING FOR
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY WORK SOUTH INTO THE REGION,
THEN SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ADVERTISED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT
AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. 12Z CAMS HAVE SHIFT A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS THINKING WITH THE
HIGHEST QPF AXIS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL GENERALLY SOUTH
OF US-30 THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS PWATS
INCREASE TO NEARLY 2 INCHES. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE
TRAINING OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS AS THEY MOVE WEST TO EAST
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOILS ARE SATURATED IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AFTER RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO IT
WON'T TAKE MUCH TO FLOOD IF HEAVY RAINFALL DOES MATERIALIZE IN
THE LOCAL AREA. WPC HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT ERO (LEVEL 2
OF 4) TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER
TROUGHS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SO THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIKELY SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW
THIS FAR OUT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE COMING DAYS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH IT'S LIKELY THAT
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE LAKE-ENHANCED.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF US-30 OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF TERMINALS. HAVE TEMPOS FOR -SHRA/-TSRA IMPACTS AND PROB30 FOR
NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE CONFIDENCE IN NON-VFR IMPACTS FROM
SHRA IS LOWER. SOME ISOLATED BR MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
STALLED FRONT LEADING TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
TERMINALS THROUGH DAYBREAK. VFR WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-77 ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
NORTH WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AT 5-15 KNOTS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE DECREASING AND TURNING OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY BUILD TO 2-4 FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...REYNOLDS
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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