191
FXUS61 KCLE 190611
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
211 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA TODAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS IOWA/ILLINOIS/INDIANA.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A
TROUGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
TO DISAPPEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONLY MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO THE CLOUD COVER AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION HELP
DEVELOPED QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE ALONG
WITH COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION HELP DEVELOPED QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL SCATTERED OUT THIS
EVENING AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. WEAK SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
JUST A TOUCH BELOW SEASONABLE AVERAGES. QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS STILL SHOWING LOW
PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS BECOMING ABSORBED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST THROUGH ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM BOTH
SPREADS INTO THE AREA. BELIEVE THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
DAY WILL REMAIN DRY BUT AFTER MID MORNING BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR RAIN INTO THE FAR WEST. FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA AND HAVE
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BELIEVE PRECIP WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED EAST BY A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS EAST AND CHANCE
WEST. THURSDAY MORNING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST
BUT STILL WITH MODELS SHOWING THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH INTO NWRN
PA AND NERN OH WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS INITIALLY IN NWRN
PA WITH CHANCE POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES AND INTO
THE AFTER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT IN FLOW FROM NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC CIRCLE. FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS AND CLOUDS EAST BUT WEST
SHOULD SEE SUN AND SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 48 TO 52,
THURSDAY LOW TO MID 40S, AND FRIDAY MID 40S TO NEAR 50.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND
MODERATING TEMPS AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO
FROM THE PACIFIC. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MODELS POINT TO INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AS MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME. HIGHS UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
SATURDAY, 55 TO 60 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A PATCHY AREA OF 7000 FT CLOUDS
OVER NW OHIO WILL EXPAND EAST THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS ENOUGH TO
GET A BROKEN CEILING AT A TERMINAL OR TWO. HOWEVER, THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE PRESENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, A LAKE BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND AT
KERI AND KCLE. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY FORM OVER THE AREA BUT
NOTHING TOO IMPACTFUL AT THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ON LAKE ERIE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AT ROUGHLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION. WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS ONTARIO DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
LAKES. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST AND DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. FRIDAY EXPECT
NORTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE
EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ONTO THE LAKES FROM
THE WEST. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE AND
SHOULD KEEP WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GRIFFIN
NEAR TERM...GRIFFIN/MM
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...TK
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