961
FXUS61 KCLE 241329
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
929 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2018
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST FROM THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OKLAHOMA WILL EXTEND A RIDGE
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING. RAIN
MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT IS STILL LIFTING NORTHWARD,
BUT PERHAPS A TAD SLOWER THAN OUR INITIAL FORECAST. HAVE SLOWED
DOWN POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE... STILL EXPECTING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAIN COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES BUT RAINFALL RATES AREN'T TOO
IMPRESSIVE SOUTH OF HERE SO LEFT SHOWER WORDING IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO, MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TODAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS IN TURN WILL CAUSE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO AMPLIFY AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE
UNITED STATES TODAY. A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AS WELL. THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME,
INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING TO WARRANT A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, SOME MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. BUT WILL
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AGAIN AND IF NEEDED WILL ADD MENTION OF
THUNDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
THEY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE, WITH RAIN MOVING IN AND EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT, NOT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S WEST TO MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S EAST. THEN, TONIGHT, AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE MOST PART ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WARM FRONT MAY
STALL OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT
STRUGGLES AGAINST THE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE COLD AIR SPILLING WEST FROM THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S EAST PORTIONS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. STILL MAY SEE A
STRUGGLE TO GET THE WARMER AIR INTO THE EAST UP AGAINST RIDGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN
FEATURES DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT HALF AWAY
ACROSS THE AREA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT ONLY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR SO THINGS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY LOCATIONS WEST OF I-71
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. BY EARLY EVENING THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE
DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME ONE INCH RAIN TOTALS BY THE TIME THE
PRECIP ENDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND COULD KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HAVE
ACTUALLY LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY AND THIS SHOULD NOT BE A
BIG DEAL. OVER THE WEEKEND A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. BY
SATURDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE
SO THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL SAG SLIGHTLY SOUTH ON
SUNDAY SPREADING SMALL PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
AREA. COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED SO NO MORE THAN SMALL
CHANCE WORDING IS NEEDED. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL DICTATE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THE CLOUDS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A
WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL
WITH THE FRONT. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH TIME AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES AND EXPECTING MVFR DROPPING TO IFR AND POSSIBLY
LIFR. CEILINGS ARE ALREADY DOWN BELOW 1000 FEET AT AKRON-CANTON
AND MANSFIELD. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH TIME TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED AT ERIE NEAR THE LAKE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARD EVENING AND THEN SOUTH
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS
THAT STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LAKE. THE
DOWNSLOPE SET UP FOR THE NEARSHORE OFF OF ERIE IS NOT IDEAL WITH THE
FLOW A LITTLE SOUTH OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR THE BEST WINDS. WITH ALL
OF THAT IN MIND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR THE
TIME BEING. SPEEDS WILL PEAK THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AND THEN
DIMINISH. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS IS THEN EXPECTED
TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK WITH VARIABLE FLOW
UNDER 15 KNOTS EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KUBINA
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