219
FXUS61 KCLE 301108
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
708 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED ALL OHIO COUNTIES TO EXTREME HEAT WARNING BASED LARGELY ON
CUMULATIVE MULTI-DAY EFFECTS OF HEAT WITH LITTLE RELIEF AT
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAVE ARRIVED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.
2) AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND RETREATS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, EXPECTING CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DUE TO LONGEVITY OF THE HEAT, HIGH DEWPOINTS, AND LITTLE RECOVERY IN
THE TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT, HAVE UPGRADED THE OHIO COUNTIES OF OUR
CWA TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING. THE MAIN SETUP FOR THE HEAT REMAINS
THE SAME. A 597DKM UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BUILDING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
IS A DRY SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHERE THE VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST COMES INTO PLAY IS WITH THE
850MB TEMPERATURES. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH HOW HIGH
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL GET WITH 24-26C FOR THE REGION, WHILE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE MORE IN THE 22C RANGE. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NEAR 100F AND CLOSER TO THE MID 90S,
RESPECTIVELY. ALSO PLAYING A FACTOR IS THAT THE GROUND HAS HAD A FEW
DAYS TO DRY OUT, WHICH WILL FOSTER HEAT, BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, 10-
15MPH OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WESTERN ZONES COULD ACCOUNT FOR
KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO. IN THE END, THESE ARE
FINE-TUNING FEATURES FOR THE TEMPERATURES, BUT THE STORY REMAINS THE
SAME WITH IMPACTFUL HEAT AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN AND RETREAT TO THE
SOUTHEAST, PUTTING THE CWA BACK INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE THE RETURN OF
CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE REGION, ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO ASSESS
INSTABILITY, SHEAR, AND ANY LINGERING CAPPING ISSUES AS THIS TIME
FRAME NEARS. BUT THE THOUGHT IS THIS COULD BE A MORE ACTIVE PART OF
THE FORECAST AND WILL BE WATCHING FOR TRENDS TOWARDS ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE THEME FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE AN INTERMITTENT CUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN 3
AND 5 KFT THAT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME VFR CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE REGION
WITH THE CU FIELD BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE FEW/SCT WITH AFTERNOON
MIXING. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN NW OH, WHERE SOME 20 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, THE CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD DECAY THIS EVENING AND LEAVE
VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. LOW RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
USHER IN SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE BASIN. THIS FLOW AVERAGING 10 KTS
SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE THAT DEVELOPS EAST OF CLEVELAND TO
ALLOW FOR MINOR SHIFTS IN WIND DIRECTION BUT THEY WOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RETURN
STARTING ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
RECORD WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED. HERE ARE THOSE RECORDS
FOR EACH OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS:
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930)
07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018)
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR OHZ003-006-017.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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