088
FXUS61 KCLE 270752
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
352 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATING
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING.
2.) WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS SUNDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR
REGION TODAY BEFORE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND VICINITY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A
FRONT LINGERS IN VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AS MULTIPLE
SURFACE LOWS MOVE GENERALLY E'WARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY INTO OUR CWA FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND VICINITY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, STEADY TO HEAVY AT TIMES,
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON COURTESY OF MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF A PRIMARY LOW-
LEVEL LOW ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOULD BE MORE-FREQUENT ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30
SINCE THAT PORTION OF OUR CWA WILL BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE FRONT, FRONTAL SURFACE LOWS, AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY RELEASE WEAK, YET SUFFICIENT AND PRIMARILY
ELEVATED CAPE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END GENERALLY FROM WNW TO ESE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
EXITS GENERALLY E'WARD AND THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD BE
0.10" TO 0.25" ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30 AND
0.10" OR LESS ELSEWHERE IN OUR CWA. WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AMIDST STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE
ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE.
INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE 70'S TO LOWER 80'S LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COOLEST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND WITHIN SEVERAL MILES OF
~70F LAKE ERIE DUE TO LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
50'S TO UPPER 60'S AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WARMING TREND AND INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THIS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
FROM NEAR THE MS VALLEY TO NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR REGION
TO BECOME LOCATED WITHIN A SYNOPTIC-SCALE LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST
AIR ADVECTION REGIME FROM THE GULF AS WE BECOME LOCATED ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE RIDGE, ESPECIALLY
STARTING ON MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70'S TO
MID 80'S ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY, LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60'S AROUND
DAYBREAK SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 80'S TO MID 90'S. THE COOLEST HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED OVER AND WITHIN SEVERAL MILES OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 100F IN NW OH,
INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE, ON MONDAY. FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE AND EVENTUAL NEED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE
70'S AROUND DAYBREAK AND LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80'S TO UPPER 90'S. DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY REACH
THE ROUGHLY 100F TO 105F RANGE IN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. STAY
TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE HOT WEATHER ALERTS.
HOWEVER, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE MSLP
GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR
THE SHORE FROM NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY THROUGH ERIE COUNTY,
PA. THUS, MESOSCALE REFINEMENTS TO THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
AND MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX FORECAST ARE LIKELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS RELATIVELY-STRONG AND STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUR REGION. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIPPLE GENERALLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT, ARE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE
TROUGH AXES, AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXES RELEASE AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND TIGHTEN THE ISOBARIC HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT, WHICH IN
TURN SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MODERATE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY STRUGGLED OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. SOME HEFTIER RAIN
SHOWERS MAY ENTER FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING AND IMPACT
KMFD AND KCAK WITH SOME NON-VFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN VISIBILITY DROPPING TO NON-VFR LEVELS. THE LARGER AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE SOME NON-VFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH INTO THE
AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOST
TERMINALS WILL SEE A DROP TO MVFR AND A COUPLE LUCKY SPOTS COULD
GET SOME BRIEF IFR CEILINGS. KCLE AND KERI WILL LARGELY REMAIN
VFR WITH DRY, NORTHEAST FLOW TRYING TO KEEP ANY ISSUES AWAY FROM
THESE TERMINALS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND WILL OPT FOR A DRY TAF FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
BEYOND. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN FOG/MIST ON SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER LAKE ERIE. WINDS MAY PICK UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE TROUGH TIGHTENS JUST A
BIT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH, STARTING
TONIGHT, AND BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FOR
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AND ALLOW A WARM
FRONT TO CROSS THE LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TAKE
OVER THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE WARM FRONT WITH
WINDS AVERAGING 10 KTS. THERE ARE NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RECORD WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED. HERE ARE THOSE RECORDS
FOR EACH OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS:
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
06-29 100(1952) 96(1934) 94(2012) 98(1952) 99(1933) 90(2021)
06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930)
07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018)
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page