940
FXUS61 KCLE 181151
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
751 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE SOUTH TODAY AND ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, MOVING A WARM FRONT
NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE, ACTING AS A PATH
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ALONG. GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM, AMPLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
FEW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PUSHING EAST NEAR THAT STALLED
BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD OCCUR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES, DEEPENING WARM CLOUD LAYERS, AND A
SKINNY CAPE PROFILE IN MODELED SOUNDINGS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE CURRENT
FORECAST SUGGESTS RAINFALL OVER 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO
WITH 0.8-1 INCH EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THIS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN FLOODING CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY IF THE RAINFALL IS PROLONGED OR IMPACTS THE SAME AREA
MULTIPLE TIMES. TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I71 IN A DAY 2 & 3 SLIGHT (2 OF 4) ERO WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL (1 OF 4) ERO. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LIMITED ACROSS THE CWA AND SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD STAY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
AFTER SUNDAY, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO HAVE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVE ALONG IT.
WITH EACH PUSH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES WILL
OCCUR. MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THESE
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES, BUT LONG RANGE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THIS
PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. THIS PROLONGED PERIOD
OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION COULD FURTHER WORSEN THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE EXPECTED WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FROM THIS WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN MODELS ALONG WITH THE TRENDS IN HYDROLOGIC PARAMETERS TO
DETERMINE IF THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL STICK AROUND.
GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE CWA IN RELATION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
BEFORE GRADUALLY COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND WITH LOWS BEGINNING THE PERIOD IN THE
60S BEFORE COOLING INTO THE 50S NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH CLOUDS CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND MOST
TERMINALS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY SCATTER OUT BY 17Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY APPROACH TOL/FDY TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
OTHERWISE MOST OTHER TERMINALS WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR A
SHOWER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 7-12 KNOTS TODAY WITH THE HIGHER
SPEEDS NEAR LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VEER
TO EASTERLY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY, A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS. GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW, WAVE OF 1-
3 FEET ALONG THE LAKESHORE IS EXPECTED WITH UP TO 4 FEET POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH LATE MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES DOMINANT THIS
AFTERNOON, NORTHEAST FLOW WILL WEAKEN TO 5-10 KNOTS AND ALLOW FOR
WAVES TO DIMINISH TO 1-2 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT AND BECOME EASTERLY AT 10-15
KNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE SUNDAY MORNING, INCREASED WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO 15-20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WAVES TO 3-5
FEET. GIVEN A DEEPENING GRADIENT, THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO MONDAY, POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT EITHER WAY AT MINIMUM A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED FOR
MUCH OF LAKE ERIE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK,
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DISAGREE QUITE A BIT RESULTING IN LESS
CONFIDENCE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...10
MARINE...04
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