664  
FXUS61 KCLE 192013  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
313 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS  
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON THURSDAY, THEN CONTINUING TO  
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOW  
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A RARE CLOUDLESS SKY (ASIDE FROM A FEW STRAY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS)  
WILL ENSUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE COUPLED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THROUGH THIS  
TIME PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT BRIEFLY  
BRINGING BACK CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SCATTERED LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MADE POSSIBLE BY SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER-  
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD AIRMASS BUT WILL BE LIGHT/SCATTERED IN NATURE  
DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS, SHORT FETCH AND MINIMAL TO NO LAKE HURON  
CONNECTION. COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE  
LIMITED TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON,  
STEADILY DECREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH  
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.  
 
THE COOLING TEMPERATURE TREND FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE ENTIRE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DEVELOPING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL  
KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM DECREASING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH  
TONIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20. CLOUD  
COVER EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTH TO  
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING MUCH  
TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT,  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY OVER THE AREA, RESULTING IN MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BRING  
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW TEENS WITH SOME AREAS MAYBE EVEN  
TOUCHING THE SINGLE DIGITS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE SHORT TERM BEGINS FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH  
THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS DOMINANT HIGH WILL BE  
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT CLEAR TO  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL START THE  
PERIOD IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FRIDAY AND THEN RECOVER INTO THE 40S  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TO GET INTERESTING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF  
SHOWING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH  
MODELS MOVE THE LOW NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH THE  
ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW INTO NRN OH BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS TRACK IS  
FURTHER WEST ACROSS CHICAGO. EITHER WAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING  
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT,  
AT THIS POINT, FAVOR RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE SUNDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALTHOUGH THIS OBVIOUSLY WITH BE DETERMINED BY  
THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SHIFT ON SUBSEQUENT RUNS. FOR  
NOW WILL ALSO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THE RAIN FOR SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES GLFMX  
MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC  
LIFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WILL  
HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR  
WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW TURNING ANY LINGERING  
PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. TUESDAY THE GFS SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA  
WHILE THE ECMWF WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE SYSTEM FURTHER TO OUR  
NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR A MIX OF RAIN OR  
SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN MID WEEK THAT COULD BRING MORE  
SNOW THAN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 40S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS PROVIDING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS  
AT KERI RIGHT NOW, WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES  
THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND  
TOMORROW, PRODUCING MORE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM LAKE  
ERIE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING  
EXCEPT AT KTOL AND KFDY WHERE ONLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE  
EXPECTED. VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY BE AROUND KERI AS  
WELL. NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND  
TOMORROW MORNING.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL  
RAIN ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WILL DROP THE HEADLINES AS EXPECTED AS WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH.  
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE  
WEATHER ACROSS THE LAKE. ON BALANCE, WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR  
LESS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE  
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OR SO FRIDAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DROP SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ON THE WATER. THIS MAY REQUIRE  
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE AS WAVES INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET. IF  
WINDS END UP BEING MORE SSW HOWEVER, HIGHER WAVES WILL BE CONFINED  
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SUNDAY, WINDS BACK 20 TO 30 DEGREES AND  
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW 4 FEET  
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. MONDAY LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW  
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS  
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS  
SHORT TERM...TK  
LONG TERM...TK  
AVIATION...SAUNDERS  
MARINE...TK  
 
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