973
FXUS61 KCLE 140755
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
355 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS NOW A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND COOLER TODAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RETURN TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A TASTE OF FALL EXPECTED TODAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW 70S MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
PUT THE REGION BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZONES IN
NORTHWEST OHIO. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A LOCALIZED RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. COUNTIES ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR ARE IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO GIVEN PWATS
INCREASING TO 1.75-2.00 INCHES TUESDAY EVENING.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DRAG A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH
DAYS AS THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS AREAWIDE PWATS RANGE BETWEEN 1.75-2.25
INCHES THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK. THE WPC HAS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO DECREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR ALL RAIN
TO EXIT EAST. SOME LOW VFR CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
AIRSPACE AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER WARM LAKE ERIE, THERE
WILL BE CONTINUED LAKE CLOUDS OVER THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING LATE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ISLANDS HAVE IMPROVED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD. HAVE EXPIRED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THE WESTERN BASIN WITH THE 4 AM
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE SCY AND BHS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BASINS, AND NEIGHBORING LAKESHORE ZONES, THROUGH 10 AM
THIS MORNING AS BUOYS CONTINUE TO REPORT WINDS 15-20 KNOTS AND WAVES
3-6 FEET.
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AT 10-18 KNOTS TUESDAY WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS IN NEARSHORE ZONES 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BUT
DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. NO ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ010>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ145>149.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...13
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