013
FXUS61 KCLE 140523
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
123 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES, PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED FOR THE
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS AN EARLY-FALL LIKE AIRMASS BRIEFLY,
BUT SHIFTS EAST QUICKLY WITH A RETURN TO THE WARM SECTOR
MIDWEEK.
2) OSCILLATING STATIONARY FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGS A
RETURN OF POPS TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 15-
25MPH. CANADIAN AIRMASS SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER 50S AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 70F. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S FORM
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST PA. THIS COOL SPELL FOR THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRIEF, HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE TRANSIENT AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH RETURN
FLOW COMING INTO PLAY TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON
THE INCREASE AND COULD SEE HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL BE STRETCHING EASTWARD INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE LENGTHWISE FETCH OF LAKE ERIE, INTRODUCING POPS INTO
OUR ZONES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CWA FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
WILL NEED TO EXAMINE SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE INDICES AS WE GET CLOSER
TO MID WEEK FOR THUNDERSTORM AND ANY POSSIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT
EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ON/OFF CONVECTION IN MORE SUMMER-
LIKE WEATHER AS WE APPROACH THE SOLSTICE. FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA AFTER THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT WITH MODEST
TEMPERATURES FALLS FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR ALL RAIN
TO EXIT EAST. SOME LOW VFR CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
AIRSPACE AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER WARM LAKE ERIE, THERE
WILL BE CONTINUED LAKE CLOUDS OVER THIS AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST
WITH HIGH CLOUDS ENTERING LATE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED AND WINDS PICKING UP BEHIND THE FRONT OUT OF THE NORTH
AROUND 20-25KTS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD
TO 3-6FT AS A RESULT, BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN EASING BY MORNING BACK TO
10-20KTS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING, WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY 10-20KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS NEARSHORE LESS THAN 2FT
TUESDAY, BUT 2-3FT IN THE OPEN WATERS. WILL MENTION WATERSPOUT
POTENTIAL MONDAY MORNING HERE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ003-007.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ144>149.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...26
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