064
FXUS61 KCLE 090806
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
406 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE CONTINUE TO GET A HANDLE ON
TIMING OF THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WHICH HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH THIS CYCLE. POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ARE ABOUT 20
PERCENT HIGHER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
2) WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW.
3) THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH SATURDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
TROUGH TODAY. AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUD WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON FROM REMNANT CONVECTION
ONGOING OVER IOWA THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON SATURDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH A WARM AFTERNOON
AND TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY IN THE 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL FRIDAY EVENING
ALONG THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM MERGES WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS, WITH THE REMNANT LOW
FORECAST OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE OVERALL
TRACK HAS TRENDED JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH RAIN STILL EXPECTED
TO REACH NORTHERN OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL
TEND TO BE MODERATE BUT COULD BRIEFLY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. BREAKS
IN THE RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AND A SUBSTANTIAL
DRY-SLOT WRAPS NORTH AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. PRECIPITATION
STILL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS STILL
CONSIDERED TO BE LOW DUE TO RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW
STREAM/RIVER LEVELS.
AS FOR WINDS, THE STRONGER WIND FIELD WITH SPEEDS OF 30-40 KNOTS AT
850MB MOVES OVERHEAD BETWEEN 06-18Z SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF OR
WITH THE RAIN AS IT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WITH DOWNSLOPING ENHANCEMENT TOWARDS ERIE PENNSYLVANIA
AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AS GUSTS COULD PEAK CLOSER TO
35-45 MPH TOWARDS THE CITY. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES IN, IT IS LESS
LIKELY TO SEE STRONG GUSTS WITH THE RAIN STABILIZING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL FILL BACK IN ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE REMNANT LOW WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS POISED TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD TODAY. SOME
SCATTERED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, BUT NOTHING UNDER 5K. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, THOUGH SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
EARLY THIS MORNING, NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS ON CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WINDS BACK
TO WESTERLY.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. WE WILL BE
MONITORING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW FOR POSSIBLE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE EASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE
AND MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. WINDS BACK TO NORTHERLY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE QUICKLY. THE NEXT WINDS OF CONCERN ON LAKE ERIE WILL BE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS THEN VEER TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEARSHORE
WATERS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...23
MARINE...10
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