367
FXUS61 KCLE 122342
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1)ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEK.
2) A DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS RETURNS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DOMINANT RIDGING PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONTIGUOUS US WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN THIS WEEK. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY.
THROUGH MIDWEEK, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S, RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES GRADUALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY WEDNESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE HEAT
RISK WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGH RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THAT PERIOD WILL ALSO LINGER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S,
MINIMIZING THE OVERNIGHT RELIEF.
ON THURSDAY, A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA AND ALLOW WINDS TO GAIN A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT. WHEN THIS
OCCURS, OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DECREASING DEWPOINTS DUE TO OVERALL FLOW. ON THURSDAY, THE HEAT
RISK RETURNS TO MODERATE BEFORE FALLING TO MINOR FOR THIS
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LOOKING TO RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE LOOKS TO RETROGRADE A BIT AND ALLOW FOR
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS
POSITIONING MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA FOR
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS REGARDING THIS PATTERN SHIFT, BUT IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT SPC HAS ISSUED A DAY 6 15% THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
WASHINGTON DC AREA WEST TO THE CWA BORDER. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO FULLY GET AN IDEA
OF WHAT THE TROUGH MAY DO.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH VFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SCT DECK MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF I-71 WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE, THOUGH
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING,
8 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT, INCREASING OUT
OF THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON, 6 TO 8 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...VFR FAVORED THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE
ONSHORE FLOW 15-20 KNOTS WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3 TO 5 FEET
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
2 PM TO 9 PM TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
SWIMMERS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY GIVING
WAY TO LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BY
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY. QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BUT WAVE HEIGHTS
MAY BEGIN TO BUILD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ009>011.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ144>146.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...13
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