744
FXUS61 KCLE 242355
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS HAVE TRENDED UP ACROSS THE EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE AREAS ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OFF LAKE ERIE. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HAVE
SHIFTED MORE INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND TRENDED DOWN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS
INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. TRAINING COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEAST.
2) MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER.
3) WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A TREND TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
EASTERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH
ALOFT THAT IS LIFTING FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
AROUND 1.75 INCHES EXTENDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL ADVECT INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL OHIO AND HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 500-700 J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN AS SHOWN BY MODEL
SOUNDING FROM CAK-YNG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 4 PM WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
THE QPF FORECAST IS GENERALLY FOR A HALF INCH TO AN INCH FOR
INLAND AREAS EAST OF I-77 BUT LOCALIZED POCKETS OF 2 INCHES OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD RESULT IN RISES ON THE EAGLE CREEK
NEAR PHALANX STATION OR THE KILLBUCK CREEK. STORM MOTION WILL
BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KNOTS SO SOME MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED BUT TRAINING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. FOLLOWING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS LOCATED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INDIANA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORCING ALOFT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NW OHIO BUT WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO START THE DAY WILL SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
VALUES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH A NORTH WIND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S. MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER
WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
A LOW POP REMAINS NEAR THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FOR
THURSDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK MODEL SPREAD INCREASES WITH THE 12Z
GFS BRINGING A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS FAVOR A RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND A TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL RUN IS DEEPER THAN THE GFS ENSEMBLE BUT DOES
INDICATE AN OPPORTUNITY TO BE INFLUENCED BY SOME COOLER AIR NEXT
WEEKEND. ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW NEARLY A 20 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR CLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND SO CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
NORMAL AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRIMARILY A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF IFR AND LIFR AS RAIN PERSISTS GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-71. SHOULD SEE RAIN EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THOUGH. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 1 SM OR LESS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOG IS LIKELY WITH THE GLAMP SHOWING
AROUND A 20-25% CHANCE OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4
SM.
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OHIO ON
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS, UNDER 10 KNOTS, AND WAVES OF 1 FOOT OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...13
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