954
FXUS61 KCLE 042358
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
758 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR TONIGHT. TRIED TO INDICATE TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE FIRST BEING
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPANDING AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) FRIDAY WILL TREND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
2.) RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
3.) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. A LAKE BREEZE STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHEAST LAKESHORE AND TOWARDS ERIE SO TEMPERATURES WILL MAX
OUT A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE DEWPOINTS WILL
GRADUALLY START TO TREND UPWARDS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY, ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AND A TROUGH PUSHING A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE FIRST GOOD PUSH OF MOISTURE IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE ALOFT. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO EXPAND EAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
THIS MORE FOCUSED LIFT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING LEAVING CLOUDY SKIES AND DECREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS A DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WITH PW VALUES OF 1.75" WILL BE
LOCATED OVERHEAD.
THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE HOW WELL WE RECOVER WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND A COLD FRONT SETTLING SOUTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT LOOKS AS IF THE MORE FAVORABLE AXIS FOR
AIRMASS RECOVERY COULD ARRIVE FROM THE WEST WITH 1200-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE RETURNING. THE NAM SHOWS AN AREA OF 2500+ CAPE BUT THIS SEEMS
TO BE DUE TO THE SIMULATED DEWPOINTS OF 70 DEGREES IN THE MODEL
WHICH ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH. IT SEEMS THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE WHERE THE INSTABILITY INTERACTS WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONT WHICH MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME TRAINING OF STORMS MAY EVEN OCCUR WITH
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALOFT BUT HAVE AT LEAST 50-60 POPS
EVERYWHERE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 50 KNOT JET AT
500MB AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL CREATE A CONCERN FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE AREA INCLUDED IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 2-8 PM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL TREND COOLER
FOR SUNDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE TREND
WILL BE FOR RIDGE TO BUILD ALOFT AGAIN ALTHOUGH WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE DELAYED BY A TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE
PLAINS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING WITH MORE SUMMER-LIKE
HEAT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
90 DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
FEW-SCT HIGH-BASED (ABOVE 5K FEET) CUMULUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAKENING BATCH OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY EVENING/FRIDAY NIGHT, LARGELY AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD THOUGH DID INCLUDE SOME VCSH AT THE END OF
CLE'S 30-HOUR TAF.
A LINGERING LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE EASTERN LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE, ALLOWING LIGHT (<7KT)
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS TO TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS
SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-17KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY TURN WINDS MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ERI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MORE OF A GRADIENT
THAN TODAY, IT'S UNLIKELY THE LAKE BREEZE REACHES CLE.
OUTLOOK...A WEAKENING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIMITED NON-VFR MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
NON-VFR LIKELY RE-DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VFR FAVORED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SHOWER
AND THUNDER CHANCES WITH NON-VFR POTENTIAL RETURN TUESDAY.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS SLOWLY SE'WARD BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER RIDGE AFFECTS LAKE ERIE
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM NEAR
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LAKE BREEZE GIVE WAY TO
PRIMARILY S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS SHOULD FLIRT WITH
20 KNOTS AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT, OCCASIONAL 4 TO 5 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN U.S. WATERS AND
ON WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
AND SUBSEQUENT BUILDING RIDGE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO NW'ERLY TO
N'ERLY AND EASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15
KNOTS SHOULD VEER GRADUALLY FROM N'ERLY TO SE'ERLY. HOWEVER, THESE
WINDS SHOULD TREND ONSHORE EACH LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
DUE TO DAILY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JASZKA
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