619
FXUS61 KCLE 072329
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PLEASANT CONDITIONS STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
SUNNY SKIES TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEFORE WARMING A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASED WAA INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BEFORE REMAINING MORE MILD
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
INCREASED WAA OVER THE AREA, A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS ON TUESDAY,
RESULTING IN MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER CANADA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. AN STRENGTHENING LLJ COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE
DIURNAL TIMING OF SHOWERS SHOULD AID IN SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. INCREASING PWAT VALUES COUPLED WITH A DEEP WARM
LAYER WILL ALSO PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SUBSEQUENT ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS. MODELS ARE STILL
DIVERGING ON THE EXACT TIMING WHICH WOULD PLAY INTO THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL, BUT AT THIS POINT BOTH SPC AND WPC MAINTAIN A
MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY
ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AREAS EAST OF I71 ARE MOST
LIKELY TO RECEIVE THESE GUSTY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEK WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS THEY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LINGER IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME HIGH CIRRUS
WILL BE FILTERING IN AND OUT OF THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF CEILING ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL START
EASTERLY AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. THE
SOUTHEAST SHIFT WILL BE SOONER FOR KERI AND KCLE WITH A LAND
BREEZE DEVELOPING. A MODIFIED LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST WINDS TO RETURN TO KERI LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
CALM MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS
EXPECTED. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED WAVES OF 1-3 FEET,
HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING THOSE CONDITIONS TO BE WIDESPREAD OR
PERSISTENT. TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. GIVEN OFFSHORE FLOW, MUCH OF THE LAKESHORE SHOULD SEE
1-3 FOOT WAVES, HOWEVER AS WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO GAIN A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT, A FEW ISOLATED WAVES OF 3-5 FEET MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, WEDNESDAY
MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ALONG WITH PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...04
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