165
FXUS61 KCLE 260430
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1130 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS LARGELY EXITED OUR REGION. THUS, THE WINTER
STORM WARNING WAS CANCELLED AT 10 PM FOR MOST OF OUR CWA.
HOWEVER, KEPT THE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY FOR OUR
NE OH SNOWBELT COUNTIES AND UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY FOR OUR NW PA
SNOWBELT COUNTIES. DESPITE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LAKE ERIE,
LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW (LES) IS STREAMING GENERALLY S'WARD FROM
THE CENTRAL BASIN LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL LES TO
STREAM FROM CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY MONDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL FROM
NEAR -15C TO -18C, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT/DEEP ON
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, AND AN UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTION TO LAKE
HURON PERSISTS AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM N'ERLY TO
NW'ERLY. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR 2" OR LESS OF FRESH
SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THE LES THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY MONDAY.
HOWEVER, IF OPENINGS IN THE LAKE ICE COVER ARE GREATER THAN
ANALYZED BY THE U.S. NATIONAL ICE CENTER, THEN LES ACCUMULATIONS
COULD BE GREATER THAN OUR FORECAST GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS. WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT
SHIFT REEVALUATE THE SITUATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER IN NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
2) AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR -
15F AND BELOW -20F FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR IS
USHERED IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
3) PROLONGED COLD WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK CREATING ELEVATED RISKS FOR COLD EXPOSURE AND
DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UP THE
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND OFF THE EAST COAST BY TONIGHT.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION DUE TO BROAD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRIVING THE SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR AREAS WEST OF I-
71 AND AROUND 5 TO 8 TO THE EAST WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN FAR
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A
FACTOR THIS EVENING AS GUSTS OF AROUND 20MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN.
AS MENTIONED, THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST.
ON THE BACK END OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE THAT WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THOUGH, WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIMITED. OTHER LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE THAT LAKE ERIE BEING
ALMOST COMPLETELY ICE COVERED AND THERE WILL DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. WITH THE ICE
COVERAGE, THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS WITH THE SHIFTING WINDS THAT
COULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF STRONGER LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS. REGARDLESS,
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND FLOW BACKS TO BE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
REACHING DOWN INTO EASTERN CONUS THAT PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR AN ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY.
THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES TO INCLUDE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COMBINED WITH AN ICE
COVERED LAKE ERIE, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE, AND A
FRESH SNOW PACK ACROSS THE REGION, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TO BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE REGION STARTING ON MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING IN PARTICULAR AND ACCOMPANIED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
15 TO 25MPH AND CLEARING SKIES, WIND CHILLS WILL BE DOWN TO -15F TO
BELOW -20F FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THAT TIME FRAME AS THERE WILL BE IMPACTS WITH PROLONGED
EXPOSURE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE STUBBORNED TO
DEPART AND WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BARELY REACHING INTO THE MID-TEENS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DOWN IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO
FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS WELL. WIND CHILLS AS WELL WILL BE BETWEEN -10F
AND -20F PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE COLDEST TIMES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THIS PROLONGED COLD STRETCH
WILL HAVE ELEVATED RISKS FOR COLD EXPOSURE AND INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE
ACROSS THE REGION. TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, THERE WILL BE FREQUENT SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR
MASS AND PROVIDE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW FALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PERIODS OF POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER DETAILS ON
THESE SYSTEMS WILL COME CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES THROUGH 06Z/TUES. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK
FROM NE'ERLY TO SW'ERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND REMAIN AROUND
5 TO 15 KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE. GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ~15Z/MON AND ~23Z/MON. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ~23Z/MON AND WILL
HAVE BASES PRIMARILY IN THE RANGE OF 800 FT TO 3.5KFT AGL. AFTER
~23Z/MON, SKY SHOULD CLEAR CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF OUR
REGION. HOWEVER, SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULI
WITH BASES NEAR 3KFT AGL SHOULD STREAM GENERALLY E'WARD ACROSS
FAR-NE OH AND NW PA THROUGH ~04Z/TUES AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
06Z/TUES AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM W'ERLY TOWARD
SW'ERLY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW (LES) DOWNWIND OF
MAINLY ICE-COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD IMPACT NE OH AND NW PA
THROUGH ~04Z/TUES AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM N'ERLY
TOWARD SW'ERLY. AFTER ~04Z/TUES, LINGERING LES SHOULD BECOME
LOCATED OFFSHORE OUR REGION. VISIBILITY SHOULD VARY BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN THE LES.
OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW WITH NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GREATEST CHANCES EXIST
IN NE OH AND NW PA, WHERE PERIODIC LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF
MAINLY ICE-COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD OCCUR.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST MONDAY AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO 20-30 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, SHIFTING WINDS MORE WEST AT 15-25 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 15-20KT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH CROSSES EARLY THURSDAY AND
SHIFTS WINDS MORE WESTERLY AT 15-20KT.
ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS SEVERAL BOUTS
OF COLD AIR IMPACT THE REGION. STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY
MAY BREAK UP AND SHIFT THE ICE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ010>014-
020>023-089.
PA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA/23
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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