435
FXUS61 KCLE 180933
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
433 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY
WITH A RIDGE EXPANDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TO EASTERN LAKE
ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SPOTS ARE EXPERIENCING FOG BUT
THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH. SNOW CONTINUES EAST OF CLEVELAND INTO NW
PENNSYLVANIA BUT WILL TAPER OFF IN OHIO SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
AND IN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS
AWAY TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS BEFORE ENDING.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DIURNAL HEATING TODAY TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY STEADY. STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO HOLD ON
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WINTER STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
APPROACHING WINTER STORM.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW ON SATURDAY. ALL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT THAT THE LOW
WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS
TRACK WILL END UP PRODUCING A SWATH OF HEAVIER SNOW FROM WEST
CENTRAL OHIO NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW PA. LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE 6+
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM UPPER
SANDUSKY TO LORAIN. THE 8+ INCHES REGION WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT GILEAD TO MEADVILLE. THERE IS
STILL SOME CONCERN THAT THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO DIG A
BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH PLENTY OF JET ENERGY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS COULD DELAY WHEN THE STORM WILL EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO KEEP THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. SO FOR NOW WE HAVE TRENDED
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWN A BIT WITH FURTHER REDUCTION POSSIBLE
WHEN WE KNOW FOR SURE THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW LATER TONIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT DEVELOPS AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON ARRIVES. SO SOME LIGHT AND FLUFFY LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY TO DETERMINE WHICH AREAS NEED
THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AND END BY THE EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.
THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER
STORY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS BY THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHEAST WIND
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THESE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY. AS SKIES CLEAR
ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET AND SHOULD FALL TO -5 TO -10 DEGREES. WARMER UNDER
THE CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND ZERO. FORTUNATELY THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY MONDAY
MORNING WHICH SHOULD ONLY ALLOW WIND CHILL READINGS TO DIP TO
AROUND -10 TO -15. WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A HEADLINE FOR THE
COLD WIND CHILLS AT A LATER POINT IN TIME.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DIP JUST BELOW ZERO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE APPROACHING ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THIS WILL MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SOME RAIN FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE ARE HOPING THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SO WE AVOID
ANY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNEDAY MAY END UP PRODUCING A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE THIS FRONT NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF
THE US WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS MAY END UP ENHANCING THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR A BIT BUT AT THIS POINT THE TRACK AND
TIMING IS VERY UNCERTAIN. EXPECT TO SEE WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK TO THE 20S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SNOW LINGERING AT YNG/ERI WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH
09Z EXCEPT POSSIBLY LINGERING ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT ERI A
LITTLE LONGER. IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND HAVE REACHED
ALL TERMINALS BUT CLE/ERI. FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOME SITES
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY NUDGE NORTH INTO MFD/CAK THROUGH
10Z. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM 10-18Z. OTHERWISE FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY WITH SNOW SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE 06-12Z
WINDOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY THEN RETURNS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY COULD POTENTIALLY FEATURE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES. NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT MONDAY.
MARINE
A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME SATURDAY EVENING WHEN WINDS MAY
APPROACH LOW END GALES. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THIS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GENERATE SOME
FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS WINDS DECREASE UNDER
THE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
THERE COULD BE A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF ICE ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST OF THE US BY MID DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR OHZ009>014-019>023-029>031-089.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR OHZ028-032-033-036>038-047.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...MULLEN
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