854
FXUS61 KCLE 221924
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
324 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS VALID, OVERALL, COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
FULL UPDATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE TO NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. ENOUGH RAIN SHOULD FALL TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ALONG SOME
CREEKS AND RIVERS IN OUR AREA.
2.) PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-AVERAGE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, MAY
29TH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SW'ERLY TO W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
PRIMARY LOW SHOULD WOBBLE NE'WARD FROM NORTHEASTERN AR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO NEAR CENTRAL IN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY BEFORE
WOBBLING FARTHER NE'WARD TO NEAR CENTRAL LAKE HURON BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. THE LOW SHOULD THEN WOBBLE E'WARD TO NEAR THE GULF OF
MAINE BY MEMORIAL DAY. THIS LOW TRACK SHOULD ALLOW A SURFACE
WARM FRONT TO DRIFT NE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP GENERALLY SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
PERIODS OF RAIN, STEADY TO HEAVY AT TIMES, CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION SLOWLY AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS ALONG THE
UPPER-REACHES OF THE WARM FRONT AND TAPS INTO RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STREAM AND GULF.
OCCASIONAL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT RELEASES WEAK INSTABILITY. ON SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN, STEADY TO HEAVY AT
TIMES, ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE FOLLOWING: MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXES ALOFT; LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT
ALONG THE SURFACE WARM AND COLD FRONTS. THESE LIFTING MECHANISMS
MAY RELEASE WEAK, YET SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
RAINWATER RUNOFF ENTERS AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS, SOME WATERWAYS
(E.G. KILLBUCK CREEK IN HOLMES COUNTY) SHOULD RISE TO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN POOR
DRAINAGE AND/OR LOW-LYING AREAS AS WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING REMAINS LOW, WHICH HAS
PRECLUDED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY PART OF OUR CWA.
ON MEMORIAL DAY, CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER AS STABILIZING
SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-REACHES OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN-THIRD OF OUR CWA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40'S TO LOWER 50'S IN NW
PA AND THE 50'S IN NORTHERN OH AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NET LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT CONTRIBUTE TO LIMITED NOCTURNAL COOLING. GIVEN THE
PROJECTED EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE WARM AND COLD FRONTS, DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD REACH ONLY THE MID 50'S TO MID 60'S IN
NW PA AND THE 60'S TO LOWER 70'S IN NORTHERN OH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD THEN REACH THE UPPER 40'S TO UPPER 50'S AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY, PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH MAINLY THE UPPER 60'S TO
UPPER 70'S. WEAK AND NET LOW-LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWS REACHING MAINLY THE 50'S AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY. ON MEMORIAL DAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE AND
CLEARING SKY. DESPITE THE EXPECTATION FOR OUR AREA TO BE
LOCATED IN THE COOL SECTOR, SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 60'S TO UPPER 70'S.
NOTE: THE COOLEST HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED OVER
AND WITHIN SEVERAL MILES OF ~57F LAKE ERIE DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS
OF BOTH DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THIS UPCOMING MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SINCE OUR REGION SHOULD BECOME LOCATED
DOWNSTREAM OF A PSEUDO REX BLOCK ALOFT THAT SHOULD BECOME
FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY. AS A
RESULT, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
AFFECT OUR REGION AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE
THAT STRENGTHENS WITH TIME, PROMOTING CLEARER SKY AND GREATER
DAYTIME HEATING. DAILY LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE 50'S OR 60'S
AROUND DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WHILE DAILY
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE 70'S OR 80'S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EXPECT DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
DOWN INTO THE IFR RANGE AS A SHIELD OF RAIN SPREADS NORTHWARD
DUE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST IS FOR BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY IFR IN
PROLONGED, OR AT LEAST PERIODIC RAIN FOR THE AREA. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD GUSTING 20-30KTS. THESE
WINDS SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS FROM REACHING LIFR AS THE LOWEST
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN STIRRED UP.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED INTO LATE SATURDAY EVENING, AND THEN
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE LAKE THROUGH LATE EVENING,
AND THEN FOR THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS EASTERLY
WINDS 20-30KTS PERSIST WITH WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY 3-5FT. WINDS
CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AT 20-25KTS, AND WAVE HEIGHTS
1-2FT IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES, AND 2-5FT IN THE OPEN WATERS AWAY FROM
SHORE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH, QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE, AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS LESS THAN A FOOT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OHZ003-
007-009-010.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ011-012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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