433
FXUS61 KCLE 211903
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
303 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN NW OH
LATE THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A LOW END SEVERE THREAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND, WITH
GREATER COVERAGE, SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
2) LINGERING SHOWERS IN NE OH AND NW PA LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OFF TO INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
THE END OF THE TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT WILL GENERATE SOME LOW END
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN OHIO THAT WILL BE DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD INHIBIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DEPENDING
ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE AND CLOUD COVER CLEARS.
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND BE THE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TO DEVELOP OFF OF. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF THE
TIMING OF STORMS STARTING IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THERE WILL
BE DECENT INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-7.5 C/KM. THOUGH, THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF
SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS
THERE WILL BE AROUND 20-30 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. THE MAIN THREATS FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN DOWNBURSTS WITH A
SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH WITH
THE ATMOSPHERE BEING WORKED OVER WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION HAS REMAINED ON TRACK WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST RUNS WITH BETWEEN 0.25" AND 0.75" EXPECTED, WITH
THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL IS ON THE LOWER END FOR THIS
SYSTEM, THOUGH A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT COULD BRING SOME NUISANCE FLOODING. OVERALL,
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO END BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A
LINGERING TROUGH THAT SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE THAT PERSISTS
THROUGH MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS WELL THAT WILL USHER
IN UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE LAKE RELATIVELY WARM
STILL, LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT
REGION. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCES DECREASING
INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY THAT
WILL SHIFT FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO BE MORE WESTERLY THAN
NORTHWESTERLY.
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
WILL DROP TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING
TO REBOUND TUESDAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE MID 70S IN NORTHWESTERN
OHIO. MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BEFORE
EVERYONE WARMS BACK UP INTO THE MID 70S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO LOW 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THEY
RISE BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SATURDAY WITH BUILDING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY, THE BEST CHANCES ARE FOR
FDY/TOL AND WILL COVER WITH -SHRA FOR NOW, BUT THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY AT CLE, CHANCES BECOME GREATER AND SHOULD HAVE CONVECTION
IN THE AREA AFTER 20Z.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY EVENING. NON-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY IN LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
MARINE
MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NICE TODAY ON LAKE ERIE WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 1
TO 2 FEET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AND WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE 2 TO 4 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME RIP CURRENT
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND SOME
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED. THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WATERSPOUTS ON SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVING OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE 5 TO 15
KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET. CALMER WIND AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY UNDERNEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...26
MARINE...77
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