637
FXUS61 KCLE 071807
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
207 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE OH/PA BORDER, THE OVERALL INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
DAYS, GIVEN A LACK OF FORCING AND INCREASED MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.
THUS, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THE RAIN,
OTHER THAN A FEW BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
APPEARS TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, ALBEIT A BIT FURTHER EAST,
LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO MAINLY NW PA OR ALONG THE OH/PA BORDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, WEAK FLOW AND A MOIST
GROUND WILL RESULT IN PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, PARTICULARLY INLAND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OHIO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ALSO FROM THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING
AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TIMING AND
LOCATION TRENDS FOR THIS SHORTWAVE. THOUGH WE CAN'T RULE OUT A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH THIS SYSTEM, HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
FLOODING STILL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH PWATS
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 1.80 INCHES.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF YNG
THROUGH 20Z. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO SCATTER
CLOUDS OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW MODELS THAT INDICATE CLOUD COVER
HOLDING ON THIS EVENING BUT FAVOR CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS AT YNG/MFD/CAK WITH LOW
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08-12Z. ELSEWHERE, MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE MORE LIKELY WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z BUT COULD TAKE A FEW HOURS FOR
SKIES TO SCATTER OUT IN NORTHEAST OHIO. WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
AND WEST/NORTHWEST WIND RETURNING AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN A LAND/LAKE BREEZE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PASS WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS IS
DURING THE THURSDAY - FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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