468
FXUS61 KCLE 160743
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
343 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY SO HAVE DECREASED MAX/HOURLY TEMPERATURES
WITH THIS UPDATE. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE
WEATHER HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL PRODUCE POOR AIR QUALITY AND LIKELY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND LIKELY INTO FRIDAY.
2) PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
3) HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND LIKELY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HAZE/SMOKE AND
UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA,
ESPECIALLY TODAY. PARTNERING AGENCIES HAVE ISSUED AIR QUALITY
ADVISORIES FOR GROUND LEVEL FINE PARTICLES FOR TODAY, AS AIR
QUALITY WILL LIKELY BE HAZARDOUS FOR THE GENERAL POPULATION.
GIVEN THE HAZARDOUS AIR QUALITY, IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT PEOPLE
LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS TODAY. LINGERING NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAY KEEP SMOKE AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
SURFACE SMOKE GRADUALLY DECREASES IN COVERAGE AS SURFACE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EITHER WAY, IT WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SMOKE TO COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY,
ALLOWING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO RETURN LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH POPS
PEAKING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY EVENING.
SHOWER COVERAGE/POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THERE'S STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, BUT AT THIS
POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT SOME POINT LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO 2000-2500 J/KG (POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 3000+
J/KG) AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE 30-40+
KNOTS WHICH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE
STABILIZATION FROM ANY EARLY DAY SHOWERS/STORMS, SO WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. STORMS MAY START OFF MORE
DISCRETE AND COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL EARLY, HOWEVER THE THREAT
WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT AS
A LINE BEGINS TO TAKE FORM SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, BUT PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
UPPER RIDGING WILL PRODUCE CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THE WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY HELP LIMIT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NE OH AND NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID 80S AND LOWER 90S ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. DEW
POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WARMER
AREAS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER
90S SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30 DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ON
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LIKELY
INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES; LOWER COVERAGE THAN ANTICIPATED MAY
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS, WHEREAS HIGHER COVERAGE MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ONE LAST DAY OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BEFORE A COOLER
WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CURRENTLY, THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS SEEING VFR CONDITIONS WITH
A FEW EXCEPTIONS FOR TERMINALS IN NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKESHORE ARE STARTING TO
SEE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO THE WILDFIRE SMOKE MOVING SOUTH. AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE REGION DROPPING VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR AND, AT
TIMES, IFR. THE SMOKE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AND
INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN IT WILL DISSIPATE.
EXPECTED NON-VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THIS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST, SHIFTING TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH BY MIDDAY AND INCREASING
TO 5-10 KNOTS. BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER 00Z, WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE. NON-VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING AND WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5-10 KNOTS. BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE NORTH, BUT WILL HAVE SOME VARIABILITY IN
THE DIRECTION. VISIBILITY ACROSS THE LAKE WILL VARY AS WELL DUE TO
THE WILDFIRE SMOKE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
VISIBILITY DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN 1 NM, SO A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED IF COVERAGE IS GREAT ENOUGH. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. WAVES AS A
RESULT WILL BUILD TO 1-3 FEET MAINLY IN THE OPEN WATERS AND LESS
THAN 2 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE ZONES. LATE SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS AND WAVES BUILDING TO 1-3 FEET
IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES EAST OF THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE
WARM FRONT AND BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY
INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WAVES
WILL BUILD NEAR 4 FEET AND WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH SHOULD STAY AROUND 10-15 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTH.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
PA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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