031
FXUS61 KCLE 241130
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
730 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ON
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL SWING
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS TODAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30 LATER TODAY
FOR ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF I-77 SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S TODAY AND SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT WITH WARMER
LOWS IN THE MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BUILDS AND ALLOWS FOR A TROUGH TO DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
USHER IN A STRONG LLJ OVER A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
ON MONDAY, AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SPC SEVERE RISK AREA. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER INTO MID-WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TIMING, COVERAGE, AND INTENSITY OF STORMS
GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS SETUP.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONTINUES TODAY. SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD FL045 WITH HEATING
AGAIN TODAY, DISSIPATING WITH EVENING/SUNSET TIME. ENE WINDS
LESS THAN 10KTS AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE LAKESHORE, SE WINDS
FOR CAK/YNG TODAY ALSO LESS THAN 10KTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SPEED INCREASES EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE
CENTRAL BASIN OF LAKE ERIE TODAY, KICKING UP WAVE HEIGHTS TO
1-2FT IN THIS AREA, AND AROUND A FOOT FOR THE REST OF THE
LAKE. CALMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH A WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE FETCH IS
EXPECTED, WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS AND WAVES AROUND A FOOT
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. SOUTHWESTERLIES KICK IN SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AROUND 10KTS, INCREASING TO 15-20KTS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY MORNING WHEN ONSHORE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY 10-20KTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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