857
FXUS61 KCLE 231920
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
320 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPCOMING FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
2) COOLER WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
3) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WITH THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW RIGHT ALONG THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. A COMPACT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
WORKING ITS WAY AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. PAIRED WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND WE HAVE SOLID FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRETTY GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WE START WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MLCAPE EXCEEDS 250 J/KG UNDERNEATH THE JET STREAK
FORCING. THE IMPENDING SHORTWAVE WILL FOCUS A BETTER PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-80 IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 7 PM AND 12
AM. THIS IS WHERE MLCAPE WILL BE GREATEST (>500 J/KG) AND
EXISTS THE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS (MOST LIKELY IN THE 40-50
MPH RANGE), SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN.
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BE OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST,
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 25-35 KNOTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS BUT LACK OF DCAPE AND WANING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IS LIKELY TO MAKE 40-50 MPH GUSTS MORE COMMON RATHER
THAN 58+ MPH (SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CRITERIA). SMALL HAIL
IS LIKELY TO BE PRETTY COMMON IN MOST THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING, AIDED BY LOW FREEZING HEIGHTS AROUND 8-9KFT AND MODEST
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LARGE HAIL AT OR EXCEEDING 1" IS UNLIKELY
BUT POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE IS LOW-LYING OR FLOOD-PRONE AREAS. PRECIPITATION IS
UNLIKELY TO REACH AMOUNTS FOR FLASH FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2..
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE MORE MORE PERSISTENT IN NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA, COMPARED TO THE "SNOWBELT" REGION OF NORTHEAST
OHIO WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MORE INTERMITTENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BUILD BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH POPS PEAKING IN THE
40-60% RANGE. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE WEATHER, BUT AT
THIS POINT MOST STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW-END VFR (3.5KFT CIGS) CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF NON- VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF
I-71. STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THUNDER REMAINS
AT A MINIMUM SO FAR. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LATER THIS EVENING, MAINLY AT
CLE/YNG/ERI. BRIEF ELEVATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ERI WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
SOME ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON, 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND/OR LOW
CEILINGS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NON-VFR
MAY RETURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
MARINE
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE ERIE
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ELEVATED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS RESULTING IN WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY, INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BY THURSDAY.
A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR
WATERSPOUTS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ009-
010.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR OHZ011-012-
089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ146>149.
DISCUSSION...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
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