695
FXUS61 KCLE 151131
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
731 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES. THE TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY IS BEGINNING
TO COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH.
3) SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES, WITH A COOLING TREND BEHIND THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1:
AFTER A CHILLY (AND IN A FEW SPOTS FROSTY) START TO OUR FRIDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO TAKE
HOLD. THIS WILL BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP PROCESS, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 TODAY. A WEAK
LAKE BREEZE MAY IMPACT THE LAKESHORE NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE DRY TODAY BENEATH PASSING HIGHER-LEVEL CLOUDS.
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY UNTIL RAIN-CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S,
COOLEST ACROSS INTERIOR EASTERN OH AND PA.
KEY MESSAGE #2:
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, STALLING
NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE CLEARING WELL TO
THE NORTH TO END THE WEEKEND AND START NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES OR
VORT MAXES (LIKELY AIDED BY UPSTREAM CONVECTION) ARE GENERALLY AGREED
UPON TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL BE GRADUALLY RISING ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN,
THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST ONE MORE (WEAKENING) SHORTWAVE MAY LIFT
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN AN INITIAL BATCH OF ELEVATED, GRADUALLY
WEAKENING CONVECTION MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT, AIDED BY LIFT FROM THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS INITIAL
ROUND, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OHIO SATURDAY MORNING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
DEEPER INSTABILITY. WITH THAT SAID, THERE'S DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTER/DECAYING SHOWERS TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND ON SATURDAY,
THOUGH A COMBINATION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA, BOUNDARIES LEFT BY
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDER, DAYTIME HEATING, AND ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHING LIKELY ALLOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
RE-DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOW WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED THIS NEXT
ROUND IS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FIRST ROUND EXITS AND ALLOWS
DESTABILIZATION...GUIDANCE PRODUCES VARYING SOLUTIONS, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN DESTABILIZATION AND A LATER ROUND OF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION IS HIGHER FARTHER SOUTH. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FARTHER
NORTH, THOUGH ULTIMATELY THE WHOLE AREA HAS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDER MENTIONED LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODERATE
FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IF WE SEE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
PENDING THE EARLIER ACTIVITY, AND THE SPC CURRENTLY DOES NOT HAVE
ANY OF OUR AREA "OUTLOOKED" FOR A SEVERE RISK IN THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK...THOUGH THAT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING. ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH WITH THE LINGERING NEARBY
FRONT AND A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET WE MAY NOT COMPLETELY DRY OUT. FOR
THOSE REASONS SOME LOWER POPS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE DRIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD.
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE AREA HAS A LOW (GENERALLY 20-30%) CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDER MENTIONED, DUE TO THE NEARBY FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR ONE MOST SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AS DEW POINTS WARM INTO THE 60S FROM THE WEST. LEANED A BIT
COOLER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE (NBM) FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN
OBVIOUS CLOUD/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY WINDS (30 MPH OR SO) ON SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE END UP A BIT DRIER AND WARMER. HIGHS PUSH INTO THE
80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH PARTS OF PA PERHAPS LAGGING
IN THE UPPER 70S STILL. BY SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE #3:
THE MAIN STORY TO START NEXT WEEK WILL BE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SURGE ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TO
NEAR DAILY RECORDS FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISING TO 17-19C GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AND APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A
FEW NORMALLY WARMER LOCATIONS TO TRY TOUCHING 90. TUESDAY WILL STILL
BE QUITE WARM (MID-UPPER 80S) BUT MAY END UP JUST A BIT COOLER AS
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S ON
MONDAY AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ON TUESDAY WILL ADD A BIT OF A HEAT
INDEX ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED AIR TEMPERATURES. WHILE TEMPERATURE AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD END UP WELL-SHY OF HEADLINE CRITERIA, THE
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES ARE ESPECIALLY NOTEWORTHY THIS EARLY IN THE
SEASON, HIGHLIGHTED BY THE NWS HEAT RISK PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTING THE
ENTIRE AREA IN "MODERATE" TO NEARLY "MAJOR" RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
IMPACTS. THIS TOOL HAS LOCALLY SHOWN UTILITY IN HIGHLIGHTING DAYS
WITH INCREASED IMPACTS (ER/HOSPITAL VISITS) DUE TO HEAT, AND THOSE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS OR SENSITIVITY TO THE HEAT WILL WANT TO ENSURE
HEAT PRECAUTIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS A NOTE, THE
NBM CONTINUES TO RUN TOO WARM ON HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY DUE TO KNOWN ISSUES WITH BIAS CORRECTION DURING EARLY-SEASON
HEAT EVENTS, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT IT.
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, FLATTENING RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY, THOUGH WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST TO DRIFT INTO NORTHWEST OH MONDAY EVENING. SHOWER
AND STORM POTENTIAL RAMPS UP MORE SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS RANGE, AND WILL INFLUENCE THE TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY, THOUGH OVERALL THIS WILL BE A MORE WEAKLY-
FORCED FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WEAKER TO MODERATE SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BUILD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY NEED TO TREND A
FEW OR SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST AS WE GET
CLOSER IF THE AIRMASS IS AS COOL AS CURRENTLY MODELED.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD TODAY WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 5K BY TONIGHT.
THE TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z WITH
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TOWARDS MORNING IN NW OHIO
AND APPROACHING CLE AROUND 14Z. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
AT 6-12 KNOTS TODAY. ERI IS LIKELY TO SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DROP
OFF TOWARDS THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE AGAIN HEADING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH CHANCES ARE
LOWER. NON-VFR MAY RETURN ON TUESDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-20 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND STALL OVER
THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH
COULD RESULT IN ERRATIC WINDS ON LAKE ERIE. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTH ON MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 10-20 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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