708
FXUS61 KCLE 301906
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
306 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION IS WORKING TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH A BUDDING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON,
AND HAVE SOME CONCERNS GOING FORWARD ON THIS MOISTURE
CONVERGING IN TERMS OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. HAVE ADDED A FLOOD WATCH TO THIS AREA AS A
RESULT. SHOULD HAVE DECENT PROGRESSION OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS AND
CLUSTERS, AND MAINLY CONCERNED WITH REPEATED HITS TO THE SAME
AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE
LAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS, HAVE A HIGH PWAT ATMOSPHERE AND ALSO A
RELATIVELY WET RECENT HISTORY FOR THE AREA. RAPID UPDATE MODELS
ARE HINTING AT A LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE
ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COME THROUGH TOWARDS
MORNING. THIS MAY BE MORE OF A SOUTHERN OHIO ISSUE LATE TONIGHT,
HOWEVER. COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING, BUT SOME
CONVECTION COULD FIRE UP AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
THE CWA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRAILING BEHIND. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
FORECAST ULTIMATELY DRIES OUT COMPLETELY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT A HUGE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS, WITH ONLY ABOUT
2-4 DEGREES COOLER AND THE SAME CHANGE FOR THE DEWPOINTS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES WILL FAIRLY RAPIDLY EXIT THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERING THE PICTURE
FROM THE NORTHWEST, THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW POPS WITH THIS COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK
IN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION LEADS TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS TEMPERATURES OVERALL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST, AND PUTS THE CWA IN RETURN FLOW AND
BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS JAMES BAY IN CANADA. PROBABLY BACK INTO
THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS AT THIS POINT FOR THE WEEKEND,
AHEAD OF A LATE WEEKEND COLD FRONT. POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
OVERALL ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE. LIKELY COOLER INTO MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MIXED-BAG OF VFR, MVFR, AND EVEN POCKETS OF IFR ASSOCIATED WITH
HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE INCREASED COVERAGE OF IFR VSBYS RESULTING FROM HEAVY
RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR AS A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THIS CLUSTER WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR NON-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
MAY GUST IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE WITH ANY HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, THOUGH SOME SPORADIC NON- VFR WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT, MAINLY VFR RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY FAVOR A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, 5 TO 10
KNOTS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAY CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO A
SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING, ALLOWING
FOR WINDS TO SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DURING THE SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY, WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE UP TO 15 KNOTS.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH ONSHORE FLOW
RESULTING IN WAVES BUILDING TO 1-3 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKESHORES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ONCE
AGAIN TO 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY, ONCE AGAIN SHIFTING WINDS TO
HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT. NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...04/KAHN
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