580
FXUS61 KCLE 131106
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
706 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITY OF RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CONTINUES TO
INCREASE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEGIN THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TODAY.
2) STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
SO FAR. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR
SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH YESTERDAY. THIS WILL
HAVE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER THAT
WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL REACH DOWN ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO.
THIS ENERGY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST QUICKLY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
SITUATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FROM SUFFICIENT WAA TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN OHIO, WEST OF I-71. OUT
OF THE CLIMATE SITES, ALL BUT YOUNGSTOWN AND ERIE, PA ARE FORECAST
TO EITHER TIE OR BREAK THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. DETAILS ON EACH
SITES RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL SWEEP NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN WESTERN OHIO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH. GIVEN THE
TIMEFRAME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE, THERE WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY SO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL BE LOWER.
ADDITIONALLY, NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUTED WITH THE RAINFALL AND HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
INCREASING TO THE UPPER 70S FURTHER SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER THE BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THURSDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVE
EASTWARD. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGH AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD REACH THE GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY EVENING AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN DEEPENING
RAPIDLY. IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THAT BEGAN
THURSDAY EVENING, AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH, WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE, THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DROPPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR. TEMPERATURES
BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 30S WITH SOME AREAS IN
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. SUNDAY MORNING
WILL EXPECTED MORE WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH DAYS.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION QUICKER
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CLEARING OUT
EARLIER IN THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH DOES BUILD IN,
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA MAY HAVE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT RATHER QUICKLY SINCE THERE WILL BE AMPLE DRY AIR MOVING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REGULATE AS WELL BEING NEAR SEASONAL FOR
SUNDAY AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST AFTER 12Z NEAR KERI
OR KYNG BUT OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TIMING AND COVERAGE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, THOUGH NON-VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO ADD TO TAFS AT THIS TIME. AT THE SAME TIME, MVFR
CEILINGS TO THE EAST EXPAND WESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA, INCLUDING KERI.
OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT NON-VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL
NON-VFR IN RAIN IS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
WINDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OUT IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASINS. AREAS ALONG THE NEAR SHORE, MAINLY FROM CLEVELAND POINTS
EAST, COULD SEE WINDS APPROACH 20 KNOTS IF THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE
WESTERLY. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, NOT EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS
TO DO SO BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF THERE WILL BE A NEED FOR A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WITH THE INCREASED WINDS, WAVES WILL BUILD TO
BE 3-5 FEET IN THE OPEN WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE NEAR SHORE
ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. BY
THURSDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST,
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH BRIEFLY THEN
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR GALES, IF NOT OVER GALES FOR THE CENTRAL BASIN,
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GALE WARNINGS ARE
LIKELY DURING THAT TIMEFRAME WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEEDED
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING AT THAT
TIME TO 10- 15 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
CLIMATE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR RECORD HIGH VALUES ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO ON TUESDAY. RECORDS FOR OCTOBER 13
ARE LISTED BELOW FOR THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE LOCATIONS.
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
10-13 83(1975) 84(1969) 82(1969) 82(1969) 83(1969) 83(1983)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...23
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