986
FXUS61 KCLE 261111
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
711 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
SAG ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY, ALLOWING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TO
RETURN TO START THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST THROUGH TONIGHT INCLUDE TIMING OF
CONTINUED INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER...
AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DRIVING PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST NORTH OF TOLEDO
TO NEAR WOOSTER AS OF 3 AM AND IS LIFTING NORTHEAST. A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT. ALOFT, A VERY SUBTLE VORT MAX IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO AND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING. THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON, WITH INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL AREA LIMITED BY
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. A MORE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS
LIFTING INTO IA AND MO EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL RIDE THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THE LIFTING FRONT AND SUBTLE VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING ARE TEAMING UP TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM OVER
NORTHWEST OH AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT
EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS OVER THE
LAKE AND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS EARLY ROUND. THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD/DISAGREEMENT REGARDING NOT ONLY WHEN
AND WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT ALSO INVOLVING HOW ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD IT IS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY START TO RE-DEVELOP EARLY
TO MID-AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED AND AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH, THOUGH WITH A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE DO HAVE
POPS RAMPING BACK UP INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH A
LAKE BREEZE AND PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY CONVECTION
TO OUR WEST (OVER IN/IL) AS POTENTIAL TRIGGERS. THE MORE
CONFIDENT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING (AFTER 4 PM) AS GREATER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE STARTS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS
WILL ENCOURAGE MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO OUR
WEST THIS AFTERNOON THAT SPREADS IN THIS EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THAT. FOR
THIS MAIN POTENTIAL ROUND OF LATE- DAY/EVENING CONVECTION, THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW MUCH ACTIVITY OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF IT...WHICH COULD WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE AND
LEAD TO A DRIER TREND IN THIS EVENING'S FORECAST. ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION IS STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY HI-RES MODELS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH, ESPECIALLY FROM OVER LAKE ERIE INTO
NEARBY NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA.
THE FORECAST HAS "LIKELY" (60-70% POP) WORDING AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WITH
SOME 80% "CATEGORICAL" WORDING OFF OF LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT,
WITH SOME ATTEMPTS AT TIMING THE VARIOUS POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE. IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL DAY OR NIGHT BY
ANY STRETCH, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE IT AT SOME POINT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1.80-2.00" RANGE TODAY,
WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 2.00-2.25"+ TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH SKINNY INSTABILITY
PROFILES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS, CONVECTIVE CORES WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY IMPRESSIVE/TORRENTIAL RAIN RATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ANY LOCALIZED TRAINING/REPEATED STORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER
URBAN OR OTHERWISE PRONE LOCATIONS, COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING. MAY NEED TO PAY ESPECIALLY CLOSE ATTENTION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH SIGNS OF A MOISTURE RICH LOW-
LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, AND WITH HINTS THAT THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA. ADDED
HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ASSUMING WE SEE
A WINDOW OF HEATING LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST TO MODERATE DCAPE OF 700-1000 J/KG.
POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A LIMITING FACTOR. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 25-30KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, WHICH SUPPORTS SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...
ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THE
SPC AND WPC MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN. A LOCALLY MORE ORGANIZED THREAT MAY PLAY OUT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR EARLIER CONVECTION TO WORK THINGS OVER. A
LOCALLY MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTO COUNTIES NEAR AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE
FROM NORTHERN OH INTO PA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS AGAIN LOW.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME GUIDANCE
TOUCHING 90 ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA (MAINLY INTERIOR OHIO).
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST, WITH
LOW POTENTIAL (<30%) FOR ISOLATED PEAK VALUES NEAR 100. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND CLOUDS, HELD OFF
ON HEAT HEADLINES. HOWEVER, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS OR WITHOUT
AC WILL NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR THE HEAT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD, UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED FROM NEAR TOLEDO AND
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO START SUNDAY, AND WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT TO START THE DAY, ESPECIALLY
OVER LAKE ERIE AND INTO NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA. ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH INLAND AND BEGIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVERYONE HAS
POTENTIAL TO SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON SUNDAY, THOUGH THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IS FROM A WYANDOT TO TRUMBULL COUNTY LINE POINTS
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, WHERE COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED
TO PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEHIND
THE FRONT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING ON SUNDAY, WITH MODEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IF ANY STRONGER
CELLS CAN PRODUCE A WET MICROBURST OR TWO.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90, THOUGH
WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE DEW POINTS TRYING TO WORK IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
AGAIN PUSH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN OH (STAYING <90F IN MUCH
OF NORTHWEST PA), BELOW CRITERIA BUT STILL HOT ENOUGH TO IMPACT
THOSE WITH SENSITIVITY TO HEAT, OUTDOOR PLANS, AND/OR NO AC.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S, WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN TYPICAL LOWER-LYING/RURAL AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A HOT START TO THE WORK-WEEK IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, AS SUNDAY'S
COLD FRONT DISSIPATES AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF HOT, HUMID
AIR FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WON'T LAST TOO LONG, WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSSING ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY
SETTLE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY GIVEN NO
NEARBY FRONTS AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR A SHORTWAVE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF CONVECTION.
LOW CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE FORECAST NOW INTRODUCES A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE RIDES BY. CONFIDENCE IN
THE DRIER FORECAST INCREASES TO END THE WEEK.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY,
BEFORE WE TREND TOWARDS NORMAL AND EVEN BELOW IT DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MAY GET CLOSE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOME MORNING CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MID DAY HOURS. SOME SPOTTY SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE IN
THE 17-22Z TIME FRAME, COVERED BY VCSH IN THE TAF FOR LOCATIONS
AFFECTED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT GETS TSRA BACK INTO THE FOLD
IN THE FORM OF 2 HOUR TEMPO GROUPS AFTER 22Z TODAY FOR
TERMINALS WEST AND LATER FURTHER EAST. THIS FORCING FEATURE IS
PROVING THE BEST WAY TO TRY AND TIME THE LATER, MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA.
NON-VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED.
MARINE
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING, WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS TODAY AND WAVE HEIGHTS LESS THAN A FOOT
BEFORE TURNING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 10-15KTS BY
SUNDAY MORNING, AND WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 1-2FT CLEVELAND
EASTWARD. BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS FOR MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY TURNING
WINDS ONSHORE AROUND 10KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 15KTS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY, LIKELY TO THE 2-3FT RANGE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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