578
FXUS61 KCLE 052024
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
324 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO
FAR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR 55 TO
60 MPH WINDS WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS IS DECREASING, THERE STILL
REMAINS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR 45 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS IN
THE WIND ADVISORY AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT BY THE LATEST RAP
GUIDANCE INDICATING 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER WET AND WINDY SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE AREA
ON FRIDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ONLY PROVIDE AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHICH WON'T PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF TO
THE DROUGHT- STRICKEN AREAS OF NORTHWEST OHIO. THE THREAT FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED FOR THIS PACKAGE AND HAS BEEN
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. A FEW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS THE PHASING OF TWO UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEMS
BRINGS THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON INTO THE REGION,
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IN SOME AREAS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FIRST MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, INITIALLY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
PIECE OF UPPER- LEVEL JET ENERGY IS THEN EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
A CLOSED UPPER- LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON BAY, USHERING
IN CANADIAN ARCTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH
SNOW BECOMING THE PREVAILING WEATHER TYPE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP ON EYE ON THE TRACK OF THE
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
SYSTEM.
A MIX OF LAKE-ENHANCED AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO AROUND -10 DEGREES C IN
ADDITION TO MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING ALONG THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SNOWBELT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC AMOUNTS AND LOCATION
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION, THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
USHER IN COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO PERHAPS ISOLATED
SINGLE DIGITS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND ONLY A
FEW DEGREES OFF OF RECORD LOWS IN NORTHWEST OHIO MONDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD BEHIND THE
EXITING DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GLANCING BLOW OF ANOTHER
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW LINGERING ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20
KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
ARE SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS BACKING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE BULK OF WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO SUSTAINED
AT 5-11 KNOTS WITH LIMITED GUSTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KERI AND KCLE WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED A BIT LONGER DUE
TO THE ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. HIGHEST GUSTS
SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO THESE TERMINALS AS WELL, POSSIBLY GUSTING
UP TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE, PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH BKN SKIES BRIEFLY BUILDING IN ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES EAST. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT, MOST AREAS WILL
CLEAR OUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCLE, KYNG, AND KERI WHERE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RAIN ON
FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NON-VFR
POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 30-35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. THE AREAS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FROM
VERMILION OH TO RIPLEY NY AND TO HIGHLIGHT THAT HAZARD, A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10PM TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST, WINDS
UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE BEING OBSERVED, RESULTING IN DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVES
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
TO 8-10 FEET WITH WAVES 4-6 FEET EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN BASIN. AS
THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER LAKE ERIE TONIGHT, NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BE SUSTAINED AT 20-25 KNOTS. THIS WILL STILL
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED ON THE TALE END OF THE GALE WARNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED HAZARDS.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH QUICKLY OVER
THE AREA ALLOWING FOR THE WINDY CONDITIONS AND LARGE WAVES TO
SUBSIDE. DURING THE TRANSITION FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE TO THE HIGH,
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS, BUT IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF POTENTIAL
WITH DIMINISHING POTENTIAL AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. AFTER THAT, QUIET
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE ERIE UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS. INITIAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS, POTENTIALLY TOUCHING GALES BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS TO BETTER DETERMINE THAT POTENTIAL.
ONCE THE CENTER OF THE LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST, WINDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN
FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. THIS CYCLE WILL REPEAT WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK.
KEY GOING FORWARD IS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MARINE FORECAST BEFORE
HEADING OUT ONTO LAKE ERIE AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ010>012-089.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>144.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145>149-
165>169.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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