014
FXUS61 KCLE 032329
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THAT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND PERSIST THROUGH THIS
FRIDAY.
2.) PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
3.) CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER AND ANOTHER GRADUAL WARMING
TREND DURING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALOFT, THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD WOBBLE SSE'WARD FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TO ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR THE CAROLINAS. DRY WEATHER
PERSISTS AS STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR CWA. ON THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE, NET LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION FROM THE GULF AND A WARMING TREND WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN OH AND NW PA AS WE BECOME LOCATED ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW-LEVEL PORTION OF THE RIDGE. LATE
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MAINLY THE MID 70'S TO MID
80'S ON THURSDAY AND MAINLY THE UPPER 70'S TO MID 80'S ON
FRIDAY. THE COOLEST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WITHIN SEVERAL
MILES OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORE FROM LORAIN COUNTY, OH THROUGH ERIE
COUNTY, PA ON THURSDAY AND FROM NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY,
OH THROUGH ERIE COUNTY, PA ON FRIDAY DUE TO LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT EACH LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE 50'S AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND
MAINLY THE 60'S AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ALOFT, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE EXITS E'WARD FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND GIVES WAY TO CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO
NW'ERLY FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES OVER OUR
REGION AS A PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS MOVES FROM NEAR WESTERN ON AND
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE, RIDGING EXITS GENERALLY SE'WARD
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF WARM,
HUMID, AND UNSTABLE AIR ORIGINATING OVER THE GULF. BEHIND THE
FRONT, A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. PERIODIC AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY, INCLUDING ELEVATED
CAPE, IS RELEASED BY THE FOLLOWING: LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST
ASCENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES AND ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT; MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXES AND ALONG THE
UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE
WARM/MOIST SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES VIA PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME HEATING, AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER
BULK SHEAR RESIDES IN OUR REGION. PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AMIDST UNUSUALLY-HIGH PWAT'S IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT STILL APPEARS TO
BE MINIMAL SINCE W'ERLY MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY-
STRONG AND NOT LARGELY-PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH THE 60'S AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY
AND BE FOLLOWED BY LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70'S TO MID
80'S AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS
ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. WEAK AND NET LOW-LEVEL CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOWS REACHING THE
UPPER 50'S TO MID 60'S AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AFFECTS
OUR CWA AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE. AT THE
SURFACE, THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD WOBBLE GENERALLY
SE'WARD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEAR THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA, WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SHOULD MOVE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. ACCORDINGLY, NET LOW-LEVEL CAA ON SUNDAY SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO NET LOW-LEVEL WAA BY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATE
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN MAINLY THE MID 70'S TO LOWER 80'S ON SUNDAY
SHOULD MODERATE TO MAINLY THE 80'S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD MODERATE FROM MAINLY THE 50'S TO LOWER 60'S AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY TO MAINLY THE LOWER TO MID 60'S AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL, ALLOWING FOR VFR AND MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 6-12KT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY AT ERI DUE
TO A LAKE BREEZE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING IF THE LAKE
BREEZE WILL GET TO CLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
TEMPORARY FLIP TO N-NW WINDS. THE TAF CURRENTLY MAINTAINS THE SW
WINDS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE IN FUTURE UPDATES.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR LIKELY AT TIMES
ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DRY AND CLEAR
WEATHER. WHILE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND THEN INCREASE
SLIGHTLY WITH GOOD AFTERNOON MIXING ON FRIDAY UP TO THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING SOME STORM CHANCES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY. NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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