140
FXUS61 KCLE 151955
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
255 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE REGION MIDWEEK BEFORE
WEAKENING. A STRONGER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS THE SAME THIS AFTERNOON, AS COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS, ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POINTS DOWNSTREAM.
AS EXPECTED, EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
EXCEED THE MID 60S AT THIS POINT. ASIDE FROM SOME DEVELOPING/ONGOING
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z, AND
WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY 02Z-03Z.
THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EASTWARD.
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR MORE ORGANIZED STRONG SHOWERS/STORMS
IS MEAGER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CIN THAT PERSISTS IN THE
WARM SECTOR. ANY CLEARING OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
COULD HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, GIVEN MORE THAN ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH OF
A SHOWER/STORM TO BRING DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
SHORT TERM WEATHER FOCUS REMAINS LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHWEST PA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
OVERALL, FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED WITH OVERALL TIMING,
DURATION, AND INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OVERALL MESSAGE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS A BAND OF SNOW IMPACTING FAR EASTERN ERIE
AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF. THE PERIOD OF GREATEST SNOW POTENTIAL/HIGHEST
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE 00Z TO 08Z IN OUR LOCAL AREA. THIS BAND
WILL HAVE A SHARP WESTWARD GRADIENT WHERE PORTIONS OF WESTERN
ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW, BUT WHERE
BANDS PERSIST, EXPECT A CORRIDOR OF 3 TO 5+ INCHES OF SNOW.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CORRIDOR OF 6+ INCHES OF SNOW,
BUT THIS MAY END UP BEING JUST EAST OF THESE COUNTIES.
12Z SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW A CLEAR TREND OF AN
EASTWARD OR WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE BAND PLACEMENT, SO KEPT THE
FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ITERATION. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY OF BAND PLACEMENT IS GENERALLY IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME, WHEN A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. IF THE BANDS PERSIST MORE WESTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD, AND IF SOME ACCUMULATIONS MANIFEST BEFORE 00Z
MONDAY, THEN CONFIDENCE WOULD SHIFT TOWARDS HIGHER AMOUNTS.
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW FOR ANY HEADLINES DURING THIS SHIFT, BUT
WITH SOME CLARITY/CONSISTENCY IN THE BAND PLACEMENT, WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST AN ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN ERIE/CRAWFORD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
BANDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION BY TUESDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL GENERALLY BE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA, BUT SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW
MAY BRING PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY RAIN BUT PERHAPS MIXING WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING/LOCATION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE
LOW TERM, WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY
DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO AN EJECTING JET STREAM AROUND THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH, MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE LONG TERM, AT LEAST
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MIXED-BAG OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
WHERE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP,
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. INCLUDED BRIEF, IFR TSRA
TEMPO GROUPS AT CAK/YNG/ERI IN THIS UPDATE WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND THUNDER PROBS. LOWER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FURTHER WEST AT CLE/MFD, SO WENT WITH MVFR
-SHRA. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA, WHILE VFR IS FAVORED ELSEWHERE.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 22 TO 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST, THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
MAINTAINING SPEEDS OF 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 22
KNOTS. WINDS WILL MIX SLIGHTLY DEEPER SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 22 KNOTS
WITH PERIODIC GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 32-KNOT RANGE. A FEW ISOLATED
HIGHER PEAK GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC NON-VFR FROM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
RAIN/SNOW MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA INTO TUESDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE AREAWIDE IN LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR SNOW ON TUESDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY TO RETURN LATE
THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD RAIN.
MARINE
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH
MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT USHERS IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. OPTED TO GO WITH A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS CONFIDENCE IN PERSISTENT GALE CONDITIONS REMAINS LOW,
ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED AND BRIEF INSTANCES OF GALE-LIKE
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY MONDAY NIGHT, BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY,
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SYNOPSIS...03
NEAR TERM...03
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
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