596
FXUS61 KCLE 261142
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
642 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2021
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR ERIE, PENNSYLVANIA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION LAGGING BEHIND. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE FORECAST HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING
THIS MORNING WITHE DEWPOINTS AT 32 DEGREES OR HIGHER AS WELL. WE
FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE A LARGE PORTION OF THIS AREA
FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS EXPECTED, THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS STILL HAVE POCKETS THAT ARE
BELOW FREEZING IN BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT. SO, WILL
CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. OTHERWISE, WE WAIT FOR THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH AND USHER IN COLDER AIR TO
THE AREA AND CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER TO
SNOW. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER AND ADVISORY HEADLINES AS
APPROPRIATE AND MENTIONED ABOVE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS CONSISTENTLY PROGGED IN ALL OF THE MODELS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TO APPROXIMATELY ERIE, PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
ENDING THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN IN LUCAS COUNTY AND ALSO INTERIOR ERIE COUNTY AND
CRAWFORD COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING BEYOND 12Z.
OTHERWISE, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE. LATEST RADAR SHOWS A
SWATH OF RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA AT THIS TIME AND THIS COULD VERY WELL BE THE LAST OF THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WRAP AROUND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW OF ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION. A GRADUAL TAPERING OF ANY REMAINING SNOW WILL
TAKE PLACE OVER NORTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN BACK TO FAIR WEATHER ALL AREAS BY THE END OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL ENCOUNTER SOME
WARMER AIR ADVANCING NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TODAY. HOWEVER, ONCE THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, COLD
AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
20S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY LOB SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. SOME
LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE BUT IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH. OF MORE INTEREST IS THE COLDER AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE WITH
A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON POSSIBLE. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE IS
NOT ALL THAT MOIST BUT DO THINK THAT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MATERIALIZE. THESE CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE A BIT ON THURSDAY
AS A CLIPPER LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO INTO NY STATE
WITH A REINFORCING SURE OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE BEST
ENHANCEMENT TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS. FOR NOW THINK SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THESE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS NE OH INTO NW PA
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
HIGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO 20'S. LOWS EACH
NIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. COLDEST NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRY DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. THIS HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO FAST WITH ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION SO HAVE FAVORED THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS
TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SINCE WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION WE MAY BE
ABLE TO AVOID SOME OF THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL
START THE EVENT WITH SOME SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO
RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN OHIO WITH SNOW
PERSISTING ACROSS NW PA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WE CHANGE BACK TO
ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STILL
ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW TRACK SO PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL
LIKELY VARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH MID 20'S TOP MID 30'S
EXPECTED. WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30'S. IF THERE ARE ANY
BREAKS IN THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH WE COULD SEE A COUPLE LOCATIONS
TOUCH 40 DEGREES. WE THEN COOL A BIT FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 32 AND 35 DEGREES. LOWS THROUGH THE LONG TERM MOSTLY IN THE
20'S.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE FOR THE MOST PART ABOVE
FREEZING AND THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED. FREEZING RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE AT TOLEDO, AKRON-CANTON, AND YOUNGSTOWN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH AT
ERIE THAT THE THREAT THERE HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL. CEILINGS WILL
BE LIFR THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD IN THE WEST. BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED IN ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE,
VISIBILITIES WILL BE IMPROVING AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR
POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO AROUND ERIE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS GOING THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL GOING ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE MORNING KEEP
WAVES IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH 1 PM. WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN OF THE
LAKE WILL RISE A BIT MORE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT BELIEVE IT WILL
TOP OUT AROUND 68 INCHES. SO AT THIS POINT WE DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY
FLOODING ISSUES ALONG THE LAKESHORE OF THE WESTERN END OF THE LAKE.
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD INTO NY STATE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK AS IF
THEY WILL NOT EXCEED 15 KNOTS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME MINOR CONCERN
THAT WINDS COULD OVERACHIEVE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. THIS REGION COULD SEE WAVES BRIEFLY BUILD
TO AROUND 4 FEET. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS OCCURRING TO EXTEND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN VARY IN STRENGTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
NORTHWESTERLY FETCH MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO GET WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO
5 FEET FROM THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE TO PRESQUE ISLE. THIS MAY OCCUR
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR WILLOWICK TO CONNEAUT AS A
CLIPPER LOW MOVES FROM ONTARIO INTO NY STATE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ006-007-010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ003.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>149.
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...MM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page