366
FXUS61 KCLE 101653
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1253 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
12:53 PM EDT UPDATE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS VALID PER LATEST TRENDS IN OBS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE. NO CHANGES APPEARED NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S OVER
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH AREAS OF FROST.
THE ONGOING FROST ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY RETURNED OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE HAVE STARTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S.
AS FOR TODAY, LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS ON THE WAY. THERE WILL BE A
LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO. NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY. A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITHOUT ANY FANFARE. HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. MORE SUNSHINE IS ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY. A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW 8 TO 12 MPH WILL CAUSE A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL STAY COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. FURTHER INLAND, HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH AND LIFT A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ENTER FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE IS A NON-
ZERO CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF MLCAPE AND MINIMAL BULK LAYER
SHEAR.
COLDEST NIGHT WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
SETTLE IN THE MID 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT HOVERING AROUND 60 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL EXIT THE OHIO VALLEY AND SLOWLY MOVE ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT EAST AS A RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY REINTRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY RISING TO THE MID 80S BY
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z/SUN. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE CONTINUES
TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY BEFORE A
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT DRIFTS GENERALLY S'WARD ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA BETWEEN ~21Z/SAT AND ~04Z/SUN. BEHIND THE
FRONT, ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS FROM NORTHERN ON THROUGH 18Z/SUN.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TREND SW'ERLY TO
W'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO ~20
KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT/NEAR KERI. BEHIND THE FRONT, SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS VEER QUICKLY TO NW'ERLY AND THEN TO
NE'ERLY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO
STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE (I.E. SINKING AIRFLOW) ACCOMPANYING THE
RIDGES AND LIMITED MOISTURE, INCLUDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
ARE FORECAST THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS
SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TURN WINDS NORTHERLY
TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY, WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH EXITS
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE LAKE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77/JASZKA
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...13
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