886
FXUS61 KCLE 150649
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
249 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WILDFIRE SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BUT IT COULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED (NOW 60-80%) SATURDAY BUT DECREASED
SUNDAY (NOW 10-20%).
KEY MESSAGES
1) PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
RESULTING IN MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) AREAWIDE.
2) WILDFIRE SMOKE TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
3) PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S IN THE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
AS HIGH AS 104 IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST OHIO. MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL
3 OF 4) WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS
MEANS THAT HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES COULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE
POPULATION WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING OR HYDRATION. THE HEAT
ADVISORY IS UNCHANGED AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM THROUGH
8 PM TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ONTARIO IS
PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND
WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. EXPECT REDUCED AIR QUALITY AND HAZY CONDITIONS. SMOKE
COULD LINGER THROUGH AT LATE AS SATURDAY, THOUGH THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO LIMITED MODEL DATA BEYOND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BECOME SUPPRESSED FARTHER
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER
EASTERN CANADA, SETTING UP BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS
CLOSER, WITH A MORE LIKELY PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM. EVEN SO, MODEL GUIDANCE ARE STARTING TO PINPOINT
SATURDAY AS THE DAY TO WATCH.
AFTER A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SET TO
BRING MORE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS. THE MAIN IMPACT DURING THIS TAF PERIOD AND THE FOLLOWING
DAYS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT
MODELS HAVE THE SMOKE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THOUGH MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF
SMOKE IN THE REGION WHICH IS TRANSLATED IN THE CURRENT ISSUANCE OF
TAFS WITH 5SM HZ AT KTOL, KCLE, AND KERI. OTHER TAF SITES TO THE
SOUTH WILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AT AROUND 5
KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST BY 13-14Z THIS MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
00Z TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. NON-VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WIND AND WAVES ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND LESS THAN 2 FEET AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5-10 KNOTS AND WAVES
AROUND A FOOT OR LESS. THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 5 KNOTS AND VARIABLE. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH WAVES
BUILDING ALONG THE SHORELINE AS WELL.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ003-006>011-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page