203
FXUS61 KCLE 291814
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
214 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
3) COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FANTASTIC EARLY FALL WEATHER CONTINUES MIDWEEK AS WE GET INTO
WEAK RETURN FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED AS A BIT MORE OF A
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO HANG ONTO A LIGHT
BREEZE, THOUGH SOME VALLEYS MAY STILL DECOUPLE AND SEE PATCHY
FOG. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY DIP INTO
THE 50S TONIGHT, WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZE KEEPING
US A LITTLE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE MODEST RETURN FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A CLOSED LOW (PARTIALLY COMPRISED OF THE REMNANTS OF EAST
PACIFIC HURRICANE POLO) WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE SHEARING OUT/
WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME, RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL FLATTEN AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND, PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A LOOSELY DEFINED WARM FRONT IS EXPECT TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
MAY SUPPORT SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MORE MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL THAN PRIOR CYCLES, SO
HAVE ADDED SOME 20-40% TYPE RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST. RAIN
AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR OR UNDER 0.10", WITH LOCALLY UP TO 0.10-0.25" POSSIBLE.
MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL BE DRY IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR,
WITH RAIN LINGERING EARLY TOWARDS NORTHWEST PA CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONT AND APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR RAIN WILL BE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT WILL BE, WHICH
WILL INFLUENCE HOW RAINY WE ARE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS A SOGGIER
DIRECTION FOR FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TO DRY OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE
0.40-0.80" OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. SOMEWHAT
UNINTUITIVELY, A SLOWER FRONT COULD LEAD TO LESS OVERALL QPF
PER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING
WITH TIME. REGARDLESS, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT A DRIER SYSTEM
PRODUCING AS LITTLE AS 0.20-0.50" OVERALL IS POSSIBLE, WITH A
MORE ROBUST SOLUTION POTENTIALLY DROPPING 1.00-1.50" IN THE
TOLEDO AREA. OVERALL, THIS RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL AND SHOULD
NOT POSE A RISK FOR IMPACTFUL FLOODING FALLING ON DRY GROUNDS.
HIGHS WILL PUSH TOWARDS 80 ON THURSDAY, OUR LAST DAY WITH SUCH
VALUES FOR A WHILE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70, THOUGH THAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY MISLEADING
AS HIGHS WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT, BRINGING A PERIOD OF
DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CARVING OUT A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A RE-ENFORCING/STRONGER COLD
FRONT LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY THAT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COOLER AIRMASS THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL AIRMASS AND HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTH
MAY SUPPORT A FROST POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
ASSUMING FAVORABLE HIGH PLACEMENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CUMULUS LIKELY AT INLAND EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH A
LAKE BREEZE WILL PRODUCE NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
AT KERI AND KCLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT WITH FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 10-15KT RANGE
AT TIMES, INCLUDING TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY, BUILDING 1 TO 3 FOOTERS IN THE OPEN WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
15-20KT WINDS AND 2-4/3-5 FOOT TYPE WAVES FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY, AND AS THE PRIOR DISCUSSION MENTIONED IT'S NOT
UNCOMMON FOR FORECAST WINDS TO TREND UPWARDS BEHIND GOOD COLD
FRONTS IN THE EARLY FALL. GIVEN THAT, THERE IS ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF STRONGER NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...15
MARINE...SULLIVAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page