111
FXUS61 KCLE 202005
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
405 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THAT THUNDER
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AREA
REMAINS STABLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY AND AS
COLD FRONT DEPARTS SOUTH.
2) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HEAVY RAIN WITH TOTALS OF 1-1.5 INCHES
MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 6-
7C WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE. HIGHS TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BEFORE COOLING OFF OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MID 40S. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE, NOT EXPECTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO FURTHER LOWER THESE TEMPERATURES AT ALL,
PRECLUDED ANY POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPING.
IN ADDITION, LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES (CLOSEST TO THE DEPARTING
BOUNDARY) POSSIBLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER IN THE LOW 50S. OPTED
TO REMOVE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE AS OVERALL
INSTABILITY, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ELEVATED, REMAIN VERY MINIMAL.
OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 0.2 OF AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ON FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST
REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON FRIDAY, THE CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. INITIALLY ON FRIDAY, OVERRUNNING OF THE WARM, MOIST
AIRMASS COUPLE WITH SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD. THERE REMAINS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTH. LOOKING AT CURRENT FORECAST CONDITIONS, SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING WHICH
WILL PLAY INTO OUR FAVOR GIVEN THE INCREASING PWAT VALUES THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY NIGHT. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WARM
CLOUD LAYERS WILL DEEPEN TO OVER 10KFT WITH A STRONG LLJ NUDGING
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF VERY EFFICIENT, HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. AS A RESULT, CURRENT QPF TOTALS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
ARE GENERALLY 1-1.5 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN A 24-HOUR
TIME SPAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RAISE LOCAL RIVER LEVELS AND RESULT
IN NEARBY FLOODING CONCERNS. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED PONDING AND
FLOODING IN TYPICAL SPOTS IS LIKELY. TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAINFALL
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WPC HAS PUT THE OHIO PORTION OF THE AREA
IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ERO. SATURDAY WILL WARM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE SATURDAY, THERE SHOULD BE A
NOTABLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURN ON
SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG AND
EAST OF I71 WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL FURTHER ENHANCE SUPPORT
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND
ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAIN TO FALL, PRIMARILY
OVER FAR NEOH AND NWPA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD FURTHER
ENHANCE ONGOING FLOODING AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS, WPC HAS PUT THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IN A DAY 4
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) ERO. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
ULTIMATELY WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. ON
MEMORIAL DAY, SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TEMPERATURES
LINGERING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE TREND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AS MVFR, AND SOME PATCHY IFR, CEILINGS BECOME VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS TERMINALS THOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TERMINALS. SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR, BUT REMAIN
UNDER 5000 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS GREATER THAN 5000 FT BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. EXPECT FOR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY MORNING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING PEAK HEATING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED AT TIMES IN RAIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
THE FIRST BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT OF 2026 HAS BEEN ISSUED GIVEN
UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWING FOR WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 3-5 FEET BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SHIFT EASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF NEARSHORE ZONES AND THEIR ACCOMPANYING LAKESHORE
COUNTIES. MORE INFORMATION ON TIMING FOR EACH HAZARD CAN BE
FOUND BELOW. WINDS WILL FAVOR AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT SATURDAY
INTO THE LONG WEEKEND WHILE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ003-007-009-010.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ011-012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR LEZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LEZ146>149.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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