088
FXUS61 KCLE 151121
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-77 FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) EAST TO ROUGHLY THE NE OH/NW PA BORDER.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
SEVERE STORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
2) A COMPACT SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG IN
NORTHWEST OHIO.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A VERY ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AS THE LOW LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE LOW'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
AT THIS POINT, THE BEST INSTABILITY/SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA, BUT GIVEN THE ROBUST WIND FIELD
(INCLUDING A 60 TO 70 KNOT LLJ), SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL
NOT BE NEEDED FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT IT'S TOO EARLY TO GET TOO FAR INTO
THE WEEDS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES/PARAMETERS,
BUT THERE CERTAINLY MAY BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION/STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-77 FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) EAST TO ROUGHLY THE NE OH/NW PA BORDER. WILL
ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY FLOODING, AS PWATS ARE EXPECT TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2
INCHES AND THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING IF MEAN FLOW
BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WPC CURRENTLY HAS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE WIND FIELD WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND GUSTY NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY. GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY AREAWIDE, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 45 MPH DURING PEAK MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS; A WIND ADVISORY
CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT SOME POINT ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE'S STILL UNCERTAINTY
IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST INTO
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS
ALONG/WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS LOW AT THIS POINT, BUT THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY BE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS FAR NEOH AND NWPA
AS LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THIS MORNING. CURRENT
TAF SITES IMPACTED ARE KERI AND KYNG, BUT AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES THESE CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND RETURN
CONDITIONS TO VFR. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT.
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
TO 5-10 KNOTS BY MID-MORNING BEFORE VEERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TO BECOME SUSTAINED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY 00Z.
AFTER SUNSET, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, THESE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN TO 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS FRIDAY.
MARINE
PERIODS OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK AS
MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TODAY WILL
REMAIN CALM AS A SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST, ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS TO GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT
5-10 KNOTS THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS AS A WARM FRONT LIFT
NORTH TUESDAY EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, BUT GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW WAVES SHOULD
REMAIN 1-3 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN WINDS FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED OF HEADLINES,
BUT AT THIS POINT THAT POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY MARGINAL.
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE WHEN THE MOST
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT LAKE ERIE. A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL BRING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN, INCREASING
WAVES TO OVER 6 FEET, POSSIBLY TOUCHING 10 FEET AT TIMES IN THE OPEN
WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON THURSDAY, BUT IT IS HIGHLY ADVISED TO REMAIN OFF OF LAKE ERIE
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFTS AND THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD
OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THIS
STORM SYSTEM TO DETERMINE APPROPRIATE HEADLINES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page