717
FXUS61 KCLE 131120
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
720 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ALONG
AND EAST OF I71.
2) A COOL DOWN IS ON THE HORIZON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
3) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STICKS AROUND THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST LATE TODAY AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH FROM CANADA. ALONG THE FRINGES OF
THIS TROUGH, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT. THE
FIRST OF THE DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY,
DRAGGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN INCREASED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, A BRIEF PERIOD OF WAA AND
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, A LLJ IS EXPECTED
TO NUDGE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF DIVERGENCE AMONGST MODELS IN HANDLING THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST HINDERS ON
WHETHER OR NOT THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW IS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH TO ENHANCE AREA CONVECTION OR IF THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY
INHIBITS SOME OF THAT DESTABILIZATION. IF THE BOUNDARY SLOWS AT ALL,
CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE IN STORMS BECOMING SEVERE AS DIURNAL
HEATING WILL AID IN INCREASED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC
SETUP, ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IN A
LINEAR FASHION WITH THE STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT QUICK
SPIN UP OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THOUGH CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND
HINDERS ON THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, GRADUALLY DRYING FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IN COMING MODEL RUNS, BUT TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL RISK AT THIS POINT, SPC HAS PUT PORTIONS OF THE MAHONING
VALLEY IN A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK WITH A MARGINAL RISK EXTENDING AS FAR
WEST AT THE I71 CORRIDOR. IF THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOW, WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF THE SLIGHT IS SHIFTED EVEN FURTHER WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ROBUST COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY, A
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN BEHIND IT, ALLOWING FOR BELOW TO
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY
ON SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S IN NW PA AND THE LOW TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE COMPARABLE BEFORE
SLOWING WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST. THIS SET UP WILL PRESENT MULTIPLE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, SUPPORTED BY MID-
LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASED MOISTURE DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY, A MORE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SUPPORT BY A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST. ON BOTH DAYS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THEM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO DISCERN ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION NEAR 09Z SUNDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE PRIOR TO 12Z REMAINS LOW IN THIS POINT DUE TO
DIFFERING TIMING AMONGST HIGH RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS GET AS FAR EAST AS KTOL/KFDY AND MAYBE
KMFD BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. NON-VFR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY UNLESS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A FEW HOURS
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING TO 6 TO 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT KTOL/KFDY DURING PEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
NON-VFR CHANCES MAY RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR MORE LIKELY IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH
WINDS INCREASING BY A FEW KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS
LIKELY IN THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OCCURRING IS LOW AT THIS POINT. HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED IF WINDS TREND A BIT HIGHER.
FROM THERE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES/BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEEPENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS
COULD REACH OR EXCEED 30 KNOTS ON THURSDAY SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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