550
FXUS61 KCLE 181919
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
319 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SLIGHT RISK FOR TUESDAY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NEARLY
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THUS FAR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAT WILL BREAK BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY.
2) A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST
OHIO AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR
RECORD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE A BIT FASTER
IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAIN (MOST LIKELY NW OH) THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE 80S AND
POSSIBLY TOUCH 90 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S (AND POSSIBLY
TOUCHING RECORD VALUES) IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO LOW-
END CHANCES OF MORNING SHOWERS, AFTERNOON CONVECTION, AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT HIGHER ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL MUGGY. THOSE
SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
SHOULD WEAR LIGHT/LOOSE-FITTING CLOTHING AND HYDRATE AND
SENSITIVE GROUPS SHOULD CONSIDER LIMITING TIME OUTDOORS DURING
PEAK HEATING.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS OF 230 PM EDT, A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
EAST ACROSS INDIANA. THERE IS A VERY TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT
THAT ENDS JUST WITHIN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE LOCAL AREA SO
ANTICIPATE STORMS TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER LESS
INSTABILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
NONETHELESS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) AREA
THAT'S IN PLACE ACROSS THE TOLEDO AREA AS THE STORMS MOVE IN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, HOWEVER LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE
AND A QUICK SPIN-UP CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
ONCE CONVECTION WEAKENS THIS EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST ACROSS NW OH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW-END
POPS EXPANDING EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE
MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AND SUNNIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 2000
J/KG BY PEAK HEATING TUESDAY WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
LIKELY INCREASING TO 30+ KNOTS AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING,
ALTHOUGH THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY RELY ON EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PROFILE, STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
BUT SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE'S STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS (AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, BUT AT
THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW THIS FAR OUT, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN GUIDANCE AND ADJUST THE
FORECAST/KEY MESSAGES AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MARCHING
THROUGH INDIANA AS OF 1730Z. EXPECT THIS TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STRONG STORMS EXPECTED AND GUSTS AT THE
TOL/FDY TERMINALS, BUT THEN SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS IT
CONTINUES EASTWARD. WILL INCLUDE TSRA AT CLE AND MFD AS THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION DETERIORATES, BUT NOT ANY FURTHER EASTWARD. WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY WILL GUST TO 30KTS. MAY EASE A BIT OVERNIGHT, AND AT
TOL/FDY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS MORE PRONOUNCED, LLWS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS CONTINUES AGAIN
TUESDAY, AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP, BUT
AFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WILL LIE JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD/18Z
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST/OFFSHORE WINDS 15-25KTS THROUGH TUESDAY AND WAVE HEIGHTS
INCREASING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM SHORE WITH 1-3FT IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES
AND 2-4FT IN THE OPEN WATER ZONES. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
INCREASING TO 15-20KTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND 2-4FT WAVES
FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BASINS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL APPROACH RECORD VALUES.
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORDS FOR MAY 18 AND 19 AT LOCAL CLIMATE
SITES.
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
05-18 95(1962) 92(1962) 91(1962) 92(1962) 92(1962) 89(1889)
05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...26
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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