899
FXUS61 KCLE 052328
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
728 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE UNSETTLED
WITH INCREASINGLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT NICE, FAIR WEATHER TO THE
AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS SLOWLY LOSING INFLUENCE
OVER US AS IT DRIFT EASTWARD TODAY. A WEAK AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED UP FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE
MID- APPALACHIAN AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. WE ARE ON THE
NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. IT HAS BROUGHT BACK
SOME MOISTURE INTO OUR ATMOSPHERE, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWESTER PENNSYLVANIA. WE CURRENTLY HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OHIO AS WELL AS NWPA THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN RAINFREE AND PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NEOH AND
NWPA THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE
EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE A WEAK AND
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN INTO THE CORNBELT BELT OF IOWA.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN WITH A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL BE NEAR THE BASE OF THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FOR SEVERAL DAYS STARTING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR LITTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OR WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO BRING US MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETUP
LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST
TOMORROW AND EVENTUALLY STALL OUT OVER THE AREA OR JUST
NORTHWEST OF US. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP IN POOLING OF
MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.8 INCH AT TIMES. WE WILL HAVE SCATTERED POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. SOME OF THAT
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY
POPS. GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SLOW
MOVING AND TRAINING OF STORMS. WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE TWO TIME FRAMES THAT WE
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT
APPEARS THAT THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STICK AROUND AND
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY AND PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY WITH
HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST. WE MAY FINALLY SEE A DRIER FORECAST
RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT GETS A PUSH TO
MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT WE HAVE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR AT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST STANDARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS IN THE 60S. WE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA AND SHOULD BE OUT OF ERI/YNG SHORTLY.
VFR. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVERNIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS, THEN CUMULUS FIELD FL050 AGAIN THURSDAY. SHRA/TSRA
TOO LOW FOR MENTION WEDNESDAY FOR THIS ISSUANCE, BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10KTS.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR
EACH DAY.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE WITH A LIGHT LAKE
BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
OCCASIONAL VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY IS POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT LINGERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRODUCING
LOCALIZED ERRATIC WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...26
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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