128
FXUS61 KCLE 011057
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
657 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND TRENDS FOR THIS
CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY, AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDING THE HEAT WILL BREAK DOWN AND RETREAT
BACK SOUTH, LEAVING THE REGION IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AND
RETURNING TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES BEGINNING FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER RIDGE NOW FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAT BUILD INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S
AND WILL LARGELY STAY THERE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, OR AT THE VERY
LEAST THE UPPER 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THE MID 20S. WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF GROUND/SURFACE DRYING AND THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER 850MB
TEMPERATURES, THINKING IS THAT UPPER 90S WILL BE MORE PREVALENT
TODAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL. STILL HAVE SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE WESTERN ZONES, AND OVERALL, WILL KEEP MAX
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA UNDER 100F. LAST DAY OF THE EXTREME EAT
LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS POINTING TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY. GOING WITH
MAINLY MID 90S FOR FRIDAY, BUT COULD SEE IT MORE LIKE LOWER 90S
DEPENDING ON WHAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES. NO CHANGES TO THE
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BIT COOLER INTO THE WEEKEND IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE IN THE UPPER 80S SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
BUT, AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, CONVECTIVE CHANCES
LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE REGION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS
CURRENTLY, AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. COLUMN RH IS SEVERELY
LACKING WHILE IN THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, BUT EXPECT MOISTURE TO
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER CAP,
NOT UNEXPECTED GIVEN THE HEAT, SO FORCING MECHANISMS WOULD HAVE TO
BE ABOVE THIS CAP. IN THE END, HIGH END POPS FOR THE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS FRIDAY NEARS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS (4-5 KFT) WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY CLOSER TO
THE LAKESHORE IN NE OH AND NW PA. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO 10 KTS WITH A COUPLE SPOTS HAVING 20 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING. GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
MARINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH, PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AVERAGING 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE THAT DEVELOPS EAST OF
CLEVELAND EACH AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MINOR SHIFTS IN
WIND DIRECTION AND BRIEF 2 FT WAVES THAT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RETURN STARTING ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
VERY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. RECORD
WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED. HERE ARE THOSE RECORDS
FOR EACH OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS:
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018)
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)
07-04 100(2012) 96(2012) 98(1990) 99(1911) 99(1897) 99(1990)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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