553
FXUS61 KCLE 212316
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
716 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT,
AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THE POSITION OF A FRONT WILL
WAVER ACROSS THE REGION AND BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT 850/700 MB WILL CONTINUE PRODUCE LIFT
OVER THE REGION. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FAIRLY
DRY SO ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. THE AREA OF STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION IS ACROSS INDIANA INTO SW OH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THIS DOES NOT REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES EAST TO
AKRON THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH
APPROX DARK. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE THICK CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NIGHT WITH ONLY NW PA GETTING SOME THINNING AT TIMES. LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S, BUT WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY UPPER 30S
WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE FLOW BEGINNING TO VEER.
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. LINGERING
CONVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL BE REACHING NORTHWEST OH IN THE
MORNING. EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE LIMITED AS THIS AREA GETS INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND DEVELOPMENT
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EAST OF I-71. AREA
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ENOUGH LOW AND
MID LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL AID IN THE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE CHOSEN SCATTERED AND LIKELY WORDING. AGREE
WITH THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IDENTIFIED BY SPC. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S (ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH). THE
GRADIENT FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT A LAKE BREEZE.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FAIR AND
MILD IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE RIDGE WILL
EXTEND NORTH FROM UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA BY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL FORCE A COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED BUT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
UP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. FRONT SHOULD KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
NORTHEAST PORTIONS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SCOOT BY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER WARM
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
A SURGE OF WARM AIR BACK TO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE WEST COAST AND CAUSE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
UNITED STATES BY TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO,
CANADA SATURDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE ONCE
AGAIN. DEWPOINTS ON SATURDAY COULD SURGE WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S
AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY BUT
THE FEATURE WASHES OUT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE OF AIR
MASS WILL TAKE PLACE. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY FORCING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN LAKES. THIS LOW
WILL THEN FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND
GRADUALLY COOL TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT 850/700 MB WILL CONTINUE PRODUCE LIFT
OVER THE REGION. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FAIRLY
DRY SO ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. THE AREA OF STRONGEST WARM
ADVECTION IS ACROSS INDIANA INTO SW OH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THIS DOES NOT REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
SO EXPECT TO SEE CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER ALL THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY LOWER AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY REACH NW OHIO IN THE STRONGER WARM ADVECTION IN THE
MORNING. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 12 KNOTS.
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT CAUSING WATER
LEVELS TO RISE ONCE AGAIN ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF THE LAKE.
POSSIBLE SHORE LINE FLOODING COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 2
AM THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM TOMORROW. EVENT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS
FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY CUTTING DOWN ON THE FETCH.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WESTERLY THURSDAY AND
INCREASE IN SPEED TO ABOUT 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND THEN DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT LIGHT AND THEN
INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ003-007>009.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...MM/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...LOMBARDY
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