392
FXUS61 KCLE 161034
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
634 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
2) A COMPACT SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... ANOMALOUSLY LOW PRESSURE FOR MID-JUNE WILL PASS
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PUSHING
ACROSS A WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EXPAND EAST IN COVERAGE.
WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND CORRESPONDING SEVERE WEATHER
RISK CONTINUES TO CORRELATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO MORE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING, A ROBUST WIND FIELD
FROM A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT EVEN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. MESO-SCALE FEATURES
AND PARAMETERS ARE JUST STARTING TO SHINE A LIGHT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND GIVEN ITS EARLIER STAGES, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-77, AND A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE AREAS EAST OF I-77 TO ROUGHLY
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS IF THE
MEAN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF OHIO AND A
MARGINAL RISK ALONG THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, THE WIND FIELD WILL BE
POIGNANT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, AND THEREFOR SUPPORT GUSTY
NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AREA WIDE, WITH A PERIOD OF 45MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK DIURNAL MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS BEING SAID, WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST
TRENDS; A WIND ADVISORY CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT SOME POINT FOR
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO PASS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATER HALF OF TONIGHT. DUE TO THE TIMING
OF CONVECTION, THE BEST AREAS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING, DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OHIO
MAINLY WEST OF I-75 WHERE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS THE ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EAST,
AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL EFFECT, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LOSE THEIR POTENCY AND PASS IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WITH A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RIDGE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
DESPITE SOME CIRRUS ADVECTING OVERHEAD OF NORTHERN OHIO.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND BE LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS LATER
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WESTERN
TAF SITES (KTOL AND KFDY) WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THE
STRONGER OF THE STORMS, THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES AS THE SYSTEM PASSES EAST
THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO LOW END VFR.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. MAINLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A LIGHT CHOP WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS
FRESHEN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS
EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW WAVES SHOULD
REMAIN 1 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE ZONES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO MONITOR TREND IN WINDS FOR
THE POTENTIAL NEED OF HEADLINES, THOUGH AT THIS TIME THIS
POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL.
THE MOST HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT LAKE
ERIE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN
AND THEREFORE RESULT IN INCREASING WAVES TO OVER 6 FEET AND
POSSIBLE TOUCHING 10 FEET AT TIMES IN THE OPEN WATERS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRASTICALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY, BUT IT IS HIGHLY ADVISED TO REMAIN OFF OF LAKE ERIE
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFTS AND THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD
OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THIS
STORM SYSTEM TO DETERMINE APPROPRIATE HEADLINES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page