931
FXUS61 KCLE 052342
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
742 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO NOTE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2.) AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER THIS SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND THIS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
JUNE 12TH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ALOFT, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS E'WARD TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND GIVES WAY TO CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW
AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES OVER OUR REGION AS A PRIMARY
TROUGH AXIS MOVES FROM NEAR WESTERN ON AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, RIDGING EXITS GENERALLY
SE'WARD BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW
OF WARM, HUMID, AND UNSTABLE AIR ORIGINATING OVER THE GULF.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A SURFACE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM NORTHERN
ON AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. PERIODIC
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET, THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY, INCLUDING ELEVATED CAPE, IS RELEASED
BY THE FOLLOWING: LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH AXES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AND
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT; MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXES AND ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE
COLD FRONT. NOTE: A WSW'ERLY LLJ SHOULD DEVELOP OVER/NEAR LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND ENHANCE
MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL,
RESPECTIVELY, OVER AND NEAR THE LAKE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE
WARM/MOIST SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES VIA PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME HEATING, AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER
BULK SHEAR RESIDES IN OUR REGION. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER
HAZARD AS DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDS
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DCAPE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, SIZABLE MUCAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND AMBIENT
MELTING LEVELS NEAR 10KFT AGL SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMIDST
UNUSUALLY-HIGH PWAT'S IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL
SINCE W'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY-
STRONG AND EXHIBIT A LARGE COMPONENT PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT,
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION. AS
THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXITS SE'WARD, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT OUR REGION GENERALLY FROM WNW TO ESE
BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING AND DAYBREAK SUNDAY
MORNING.
TONIGHT'S LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 60'S TO LOWER 70'S
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70'S TO MID
80'S LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COOLEST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND WITHIN SEVERAL MILES OF ~59F LAKE ERIE, FROM
NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY, OH TO ERIE COUNTY, PA, DUE TO
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. NOTE: LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE LAKE
BREEZE FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WEAK AND NET
LOW-LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOWS
REACHING THE MID 50'S TO MID 60'S AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE REGION AND UPPER OH
VALLEY ON SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, JUNE 12TH. ALOFT, THE MEAN
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD DRIFT FROM NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
LOWER OH VALLEY TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED
STATES. AT THE SURFACE, THE PRIMARY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHOULD
WOBBLE SE'WARD FROM NORTHERN ON AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS PROJECTED WEATHER PATTERN
EVOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW NET LOW-LEVEL WAA
TO IMPACT OUR CWA. IN ADDITION, A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TAP TO THE
SOUTHERN GULF STREAM AND/OR GULF SHOULD DEVELOP THIS MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND ALLOW HUMIDITY TO INCREASE NOTICEABLY,
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY ONWARD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES SHOULD
INCLUDE LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70'S TO MID 80'S ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80'S TO MID
90'S THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NOTE: SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING
OF SURFACE AIR OVER LAND SURROUNDING ~59F LAKE ERIE AND A
FAVORABLY-WEAK SYNOPTIC MSLP GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE
TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT LOCATIONS WITHIN SEVERAL MILES OF THE
ENTIRE LAKE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS
OF THIS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, RESPECTIVELY. THE COOLEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE LAKE BREEZE.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DUE, IN
PART TO STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD RIPPLE GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
RIDGE ALOFT THIS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST
ASCENT ALONG ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH AXES MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AS A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
VIA DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST TRENDS IN NWP MODEL GUIDANCE DO NOT
DEPICT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER,
THE COMBINATION OF APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP NW OH EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD WITH MORE ONE OR TWO MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS, CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER CHANCES WITH THIS UPDATE. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVES SOUTH INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THERE'S STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR EARLY-DAY CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION, BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KTOL TO KCLE TO
KERI BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z AND 00Z. THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE
REFINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD COULD PRODUCE NON-
VFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND ESPECIALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK IS LOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH ANY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG/ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PERIODS OF NON-VFR LIKELY IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WITH THE STRONGER WINDS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WAVES
IN THE OPEN WATERS OF 3-6 FEET. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH WINDS DECREASING QUICKLY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND 15 KNOTS OR LESS ON MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES ON TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...15
MARINE...10
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