130
FXUS61 KCLE 192344
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAIN. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FLOODING
WILL BE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
2) A COOL, FALL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE BULK OF THE WEEK
WITH SOME INTERMITTENT RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WITH A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA, SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OVERALL, THE
THUNDER AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LIMITED, AS ONGOING AND
EXPECTED ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE, AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.80-2.00" ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE, ANY RAINFALL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE EFFICIENT. ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
LIMITED TO WHERE ROUNDS OF RAIN CAN PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. HOWEVER, FOR OUR AREA, THE SETUP IS TRENDING TO ALLOWING
SEVERAL GAPS IN THE RAIN COVERAGE AT TIMES AND THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR FLOODING COULD BE AREAS SOUTH AND WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A MORE
FALL-LIKE PATTERN STARTING ON MONDAY WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND A COOLER TROUGH ENTERING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 60S
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THERE COULD BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, MAINLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS A
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RAIN TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE AREA, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
RETREATS SLIGHTLY NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON
THURSDAY AND TRY TO DRY OUT THE FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WE START WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY VFR AND
POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS BUT CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARDS
MOSTLY IFR AND LIFR TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS
IMPACT THE REGION. WHILE IFR AND LOWER WILL BE THE PREVAILING
CATEGORY, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT POCKETS OF VFR AND MVFR WILL OCCUR
AT TIMES. HEAVIER RAIN ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED LIGHTNING WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT IN THIS PATTERN BUT IS MOST LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z.
RAIN WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARDS
MOSTLY MVFR AND EVEN A BIT OF VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL TREND TOWARD SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTH BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL LARGELY STALL OUT OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE A MIX OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW WAVES THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY AND DRAG THE FRONT SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE LAKE. WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULTANT WAVES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FOR 4
FT OR GREATER. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A TROUGH OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR NORTHEAST FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KTS
OVER THE LAKE. THERE IS SOME LOW END POTENTIAL FOR GALES,
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTHS OF THESE SYSTEMS. REGARDLESS, WAVES
WILL BUILD SUBSTANTIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH WILL TRY TO BUILD NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT FLOW TO
THE EAST, WHILE STAYING IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. OVERALL, A
LONG PERIOD OF MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE EXPECTED STARTING ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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