708
FXUS61 KCLE 231950
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG LOOKS WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY DENSE IN NW AND NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT NW AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AGAIN TONIGHT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SATURDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WELL ESTABLISHED MID/UPPER OMEGA BLOCK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, CHARACTERIZED BY A COUPLE OF CLOSED LOWS
ROTATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ROCKIES AND ANOTHER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION, WITH A SHARP RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY PLACED BENEATH UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE, MAINTAINING STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN
ORIGIN. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FAMILIAR PATTERN OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MONDAY, BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A SE
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS (MID/UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND UPPER 60S/LOW
70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY). THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS OFF LAKE ERIE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ADVECTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO NW
AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO, AND THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AID IN
SMALL TEMP/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND LOW-LEVEL SATURATION
BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE FOG WAS LOCALLY
DENSE THIS MORNING ACROSS NW OHIO AND LINGERED THROUGH ABOUT
17Z, SO EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG WILL OCCUR IN NW AND
NORTH CENTRAL OHIO, BUT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS
WELL. THIS SAME SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PLAY OUT AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT MORE OF A SE FLOW DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE IN-CHECK, SO DO NOT
THINK IT WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY, BUT VERY DRY AIR SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED POST FRONT TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES, BUT THE PATTERN
LOOKS TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A QUASI-ZONAL MID/UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES DUE TO THE LOW/TROUGH
OFF THE EAST COAST PULLING AWAY AND STRONG PACIFIC JET EXTENSION
INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND FOR MID
AND LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE VISIBILITY WILL BE BACK ABOVE 6 MILES SOON AT TOL AFTER
DENSE FOG OCCURRED IN NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A
SCATTERED-BROKEN CU DECK HAS DEVELOPED BUT WILL TEND TO CLEAR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
ACROSS NW OHIO. FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL TRAP MOISTURE BELOW A
SHALLOW INVERSION OVERNIGHT AND DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT TOL
AND FDY BETWEEN 10-14Z. MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AT MFD AND CAK BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BAD.
ELSEWHERE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM AT TOL
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, PRIMARILY VFR IS EXPECTED.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY SLIDES
SOUTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND APPALACHIANS BY LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME LIGHT
E TO SE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING SSE AT 5-10 KNOTS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SW AT 5-10 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, THEN NW BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS STILL IN THE 5-10 KNOT
RANGE. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SETS UP NE WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS, BUT EXPECT
QUIET CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
EAST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...10
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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