604
FXUS61 KCLE 261845
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
245 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL REACH
THE I-75 BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM EDT WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING GUSTY
WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE I-71 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
2) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT, A LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE LOW OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA, MOVING INTO THE CWA BETWEEN
7 AND 8 PM EDT. CURRENT DEWPOINTS OVER INDIANA IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S MIXED WITH THE ONGOING DIURNALLY HEATING AND THETA-E
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONALLY, SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30 KNOTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO AID IN
STORM MAINTENANCE AS THEY PUSH EAST. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS
EVENING'S CONVECTION IS GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A NON-ZERO TORNADO CHANCE. THE TRICKY PART ABOUT THE
FORECAST OVER THE CLEVELAND CWA IS HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL
PROGRESS AND REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
PLACING STORMS IN NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 7-8PM, GENERAL
THINKING IS THAT CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BEFORE THE THREAT RAPIDLY DECREASES FURTHER EAST WITH THE
TIMING OF CONVECTION BECOMING LESS DIURNALLY FAVORABLE AND
INSTABILITY DECREASING. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHT THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN A
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) FOR THE STORM POTENTIAL AND HAS ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE REGION UPSTREAM IN A RECENT MCD
HIGHLIGHTING THE ONGOING DESTABILIZATION BEING OBSERVED. WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP, THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DUE TO THIS WPC HAS ISSUED A DAY 1 MARGINAL ERO (1 OF
4) FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST TONIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND EAST OF I-71 BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH INTO FAR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA BY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR BUT SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE GIVEN THE WEAKER ENVIRONMENT
EARLIER IN THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER OVER THE AREA IN ADDITION TO THE
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN MILD
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE 60S,
IT WILL BE HUMID BUT OVERALL HEAT INDICES SHOULDN'T EXCEED THE MID-
90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S BEFORE THEY
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OF 4-5K ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
TOL TOWARDS 23Z AND FDY TOWARDS 00Z. INCLUDED A 2 HOUR TEMPO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THOSE SITES. CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO IFR IN
HEAVY RAIN WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP AS IT MOVES EAST SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE 03-06Z
TIME FRAME. TERMINALS IN NE OHIO AND NW PENNSYLVANIA CAN EXPECT
PRIMARILY SCATTERED SHOWERS BY LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN HOUR OR TWO AT ANY LOCATION WITH VFR
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 4-7K INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY AT YNG/ERI. NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING OFF OF LAKE ERIE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION, THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH
THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE BETWEEN 6-10 PM. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN IN INTENSITY
AS THEY CROSS LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT BUT COULD STILL LEAD TO
ERRATIC WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AT 10-15 KNOTS BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT CHOPPY CONDITIONS AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS COULD BE POSSIBLE. THE TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE LAKE
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WATERSPOUTS TO DEVELOP. GENERALLY GOOD
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page