320
FXUS61 KCLE 221151
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
751 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ADDED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO INTO
CENTRAL OHIO. THE REST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR NWOH INTO CENTRAL
OHIO. SPC HAS ADDED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LATER TODAY.
2) WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS
THE REGION.
3) MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK FRONT HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING OUT TODAY. THIS WEAK FRONT IS
RATHER ILL-DEFINED BUT IS LOCATED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NEOH AND NWPA WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. MOST OF THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA AND FADE AWAY LATER THIS
MORNING. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLE SUN AND CLOUDS AT TIMES BUT
OVERALL IT WILL BE A DECENT DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO INTO NWPA. THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE MAY STAY IN THE 60S DUE TO A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAK LAKE BREEZE LATER TODAY.
THE LATEST HIGH-RES NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL IS
MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST OHIO INTO CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY
WILL STALL OUT LATER TODAY. THIS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER TO
ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY IS WHY SPC HAS NWOH
AND NCOH HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND 2000 JULES OF MLCAPE
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
MARGINAL AROUND 30 KNOTS LATER TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE 500 MB FLOW NEAR CHICAGO THIS MORNING
THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAK
FRONT. THE STORM MODE EXPECTED WILL BE CLUSTERS OF STORMS AND
SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE EVENING AROUND OR AFTER
SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD LATE THURSDAY AS A
WARM FRONT. IT MAY TRY AGAIN TO SPARK OFF A COUPLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OHIO. BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
UNORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACH 80 DEGREES POSSIBLY THURSDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED AND START TO INCREASE BY FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY
LOOKS DRY BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO CREEP BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE MIDDLE
70S TO NEAR 80 AREAWIDE BEFORE THE RAIN CHANCES MOVE IN LATE IN
THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. IT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
AVERAGE AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND BUT
CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEASONABLE MILD IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH UNSETTLED, WET
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN NEXT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF HOW TO HANDLE THAT POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. BUT THE GENERAL EXPECTATIONS WILL BE A WELL DEVELOPED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE APRIL SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAYBE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLE MILD TO WARM
AND ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL STANDARDS GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THIS MORNING AND ALLOW FOR LOW
VFR CLOUDS TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TS AT A
LOCATION IS JUST KFDY AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30. ANY RAIN IS
CONDITIONAL AT KTOL AND KMFD AND WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT FROM THE
TAFS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO, MAINLY WHERE ANY RAIN
TRACKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
BENIGN WEATHER AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS REMAIN EXPECTED ON
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS ARE STARTING
OFF QUIET WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONT. THIS
FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS
TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO BE FAVORED NEAR THE SHORELINE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TARGET THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH, WHERE THEY SHOULD REMAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NO MARINE
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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