492
FXUS61 KCLE 101103
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
703 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO, INCLUDING THE CLEVELAND METRO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. LIMITED TO
ISOLATED RISKS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER.
2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE
OVERNIGHT RELIEF ANTICIPATED. DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK NEAR
100F ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER
BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWING
FOR ANY REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE LATEST
HREF SHOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 2000-2700 J/KG SBCAPE.
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.
BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A NUMBER OF HI-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN MCS DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MCS AS IT MAY BE WEAKENING
AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE WEAKENING MCS, THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF
THURSDAY LOOKS FAIRLY DRY OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVING THE HOT AND
HUMID AIRMASS.
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
SPC HAS A CIG1 HATCHING FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 65+ KNOTS
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH EMBEDDED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL AS SECONDARY RISKS. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT CONTINUES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ON FRIDAY.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION UNTIL IT
CLEARS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED OR SPORADIC
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING, THOUGH
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE IN ANY TRAINING OR REPEATED
STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA.
WE'LL DRY OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT GLIDES EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND/OR CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE MID 80S FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. OPTED TO
EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EAST
TO INCLUDE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF I-71. PEAK HEAT INDICES
WILL LARGELY RANGE BETWEEN 95-100F THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SPOTS IN
THE ADVISORY MAY NOT REACH THE 100F CRITERIA, BUT GIVEN THE
EARLY SEASON NATURE AND LACK OF OVERNIGHT RELIEF HEAT-RELATED
IMPACTS ARE A CONCERN.
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR IF A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
THURSDAY GIVEN LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND/OR SHOWERS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CURRENTLY IN THE WAKE OF SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS OF 11Z
THIS MORNING, AND THE REST OF THE TRAILING STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION IS WANING. VFR FOR THE MOST PART AT THIS POINT,
AND EXPECT IT TO STAY THERE AS THE SUN RISES AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS TO MIX. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY UNDER 12KTS WILL
INCREASE TO HAVE GUSTS OF 15-25KTS LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TONIGHT, AND
HAVE THAT COVERED WITH PROB30 FOR CLE-MFD AND EAST.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR LIKELY IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON-
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20KTS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS LESS THAN 2FT IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES. FRIDAY, A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY
15-20KTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS 2-3FT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASINS, LESS THAN 2FT IN THE WESTERN BASIN NEARSHORE ZONES.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND 10-20KTS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS 2FT OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ003-006>011-017>020-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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