236
FXUS61 KCLE 311839
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
239 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ASIDE FROM A FEW STRAY SHOWERS THAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
DURING THE DAYTIME WILL GENERALLY BE WEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR,
PARTICULARITY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM FINDLAY TO MARION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP
AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION, AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO
1.75-2.00 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WEST OF THE AREA ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF
THE SURFACE LOW, BUT THIS PRECIP MAXIMA COULD SNEAK INTO THE
I-75 CORRIDOR BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SYSTEM. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY, MID/UPPER
FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLOWLY PIVOTS EASTWARD. WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF SLOW MOVING/TRAINING STORMS
AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING AREAS EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR
WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, COMBINED WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG, COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE CONVECTION TRACKS EAST OUT OF THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE, AND A TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH LOW LCLS AND SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
HODOGRAPHS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH
CUTS OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW
FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS HUMID AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD BE VULNERABLE TO AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
ANY SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS
AROUND 4-6KFT LINGERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW LIGHT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KMFD, KCAK, AND
KYNG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH RAIN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA WEST TO EAST STARTING NEAR THE
I-75 CORRIDOR SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE
PERIODIC NON-VFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT PREVAILING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR STILL. LIGHTNING ISN'T EXPECTED
UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY, AND EVEN THEN THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW AT THIS POINT (~20%).
A LAKE BREEZE BRINGS NORTHERLY WINDS TO KCLE AND KERI THIS
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING AND
APPROACH 10 KNOTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, POTENTIALLY MOVING
EASTWARD SOUTH OF OR ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE
IS GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE REGARDING
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK, WHICH GREATLY INFLUENCES THE WIND
AND WAVES FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW ON MONDAY. IT'S
BECOMINGLY INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
15-20 KNOT ONSHORE FLOW WITH WAVES IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE,
ESPECIALLY EAST THE ISLAND TOWARDS THE CLEVELAND AREA, BUT THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING. WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR
SWIMMERS AND SMALL CRAFT, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL BASIN OF
LAKE ERIE.
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE BY MIDWEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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