426
FXUS61 KCLE 201804
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
204 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY DECREASED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
2) WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH
MAY RESULT IN RISES ON AREA RIVERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING AND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHEST COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY, ALBEIT FAIRLY WEAK AT 400-700 J/KG, EXISTS. LOCALLY
STRONGER BUT SUB- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK DUE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
RICH AS PWAT VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES, WHICH ARE
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID/LATE JUNE. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH CURRENT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 0.75-1.25 INCHES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
1.25-1.50 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORE. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING, THOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION AND/OR
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST WINDS
MORE WESTERLY, AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, POSSIBLY AFFECTING YNG
AND CAK. STORMS CAN PRODUCE BRIEF IFR OR LOWER VSBY AND ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS (UP TO 40KT) AND SMALL HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SWEEP OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING, LEAVING DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE TAFS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT ARE
ONGOING, BECOMING LIGHT (<7KT) TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SHIFTING WINDS TO A WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION...GENERALLY 10-15KT
IN THE OHIO WATERS AND 10KT OR LESS TO THE EAST. THESE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY PERK UP TO 15 TO NEARLY 20KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN BEFORE
SHIFTING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET WILL GENERALLY
HANDLE THINGS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SOME
3 FOOTERS IN THE CENTRAL BASIN THIS EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY
FLIP AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY, TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND MORE NORTHEAST TO NORTH ON SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL
BECOME ELEVATED 15-25KT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND WITH THE E
TO N DIRECTION WE'LL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS FOR A NUMBER OF OUR NEARSHORE/COASTAL
ZONES. CALMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY TUESDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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