371
FXUS61 KCLE 222345
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
745 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXIT THROUGH THIS EVENING, LEAVING A
PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
3) INTERMITTENT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRANSFER TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THOUGH MAY NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND PLEASANT, THOUGH WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME RADIATION FOG TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A BIT OF THUNDER SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF THE EXIT REGION
OF AN INCOMING JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH A BIT
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRYING TO ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST. SO,
NOT EXPECTING A PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY BUT THERE'S ENOUGH TO HAVE A CHANCE
MENTIONED. THE COLD FRONT IS FAVORED TO CROSS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MODELS EXHIBIT SOME DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AMOUNT OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH
ON THURSDAY AND EXITING TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER,
THE FRONTAL TIMING DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS SUPPORTS ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM ROUGHLY
SANDUSKY TO MARION POINTS EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE MODEST, THOUGH
SUFFICIENT HEATING COULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. OVERALL, WE ARE EYING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER MAY PAN OUT, ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND BEGIN MATURING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THURSDAY'S FRONT WILL LIKELY SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
FRIDAY MORNING, AND WILL WAIVER JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST WILL TRY TO KEEP US RAIN-FREE, WAVES TRACKING ALONG
THE FRONT MAY LIFT IT BACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH AT TIMES TO BRING
RAIN POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA.
RIDGING ALOFT GRADUALLY STARTS BUILDING FROM THE CENTRAL AND
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, SIGNALING WHAT SHOULD
BE A GRADUAL BUT MORE PROLONGED WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING, LEAVING A RAIN-FREE AND
OVERCAST AIRSPACE. THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL MOVING THROUGH AND PROVIDING LIFT IN THAT
AREA. CONDITIONS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO EVEN BRIEFLY LOWER TO
IFR FOR KERI, KYNG, AND KCAK WITH THE HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING IN THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE
EAST FOR TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN AND DRY
AND GENERALLY CLEAR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR VISIBILITY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FOG.
NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASIN OF LAKE ERIE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH WAVES REMAINING IN
THE 3 TO 4-FOOT RANGE AND THUS WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEADLINES
IN PLACE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT, ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 KNOTS OR
LESS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY, 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BEFORE SHIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, AROUND 10
KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...KAHN
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