710
FXUS61 KCLE 232003
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
403 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REDUCED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE EVENING GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS.
TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE NORTH AND EAST SLIGHTLY FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LAKE BREEZES OR FLOW OFF THE LAKE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING RISES DUE TO THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND A FEW HAVE EXCEEDED MINOR FLOOD. A WIND ADVISORY
ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM SUNDAY FOR ERIE COUNTY
PENNSYLVANIA.
2.) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING ON SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY.
3) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND WE ARE
MONITORING RADAR TRENDS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING.
ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHEAR VALUES
ARE HIGHEST ACROSS NE OHIO WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH VEERING ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH 35-40 KNOTS
AT 850MB. HODOGRAPHS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION IF WE CAN GET
DISCRETE CELLS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHOWERS, GENERALLY BETWEEN
NOW AND 7 PM. THIS IS THE WINDOW OF CONCERN FOR A SHORT-LIVED
AND GENERALLY WEAK TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTH AND THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES. THUS FAR NOT SEEING A SUFFICIENT
UPTICK ON RADAR TO BE CONCERNED BUT THE WINDOW OF POTENTIALLY
STRONGER ACTIVITY IS JUST GETTING STARTED. COVERAGE OF STORMS
HAS BEEN LESS THAN EXPECTED TODAY AND TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS FORECAST. STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST COULD
SUPPORT SOME TRAINING BUT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DID NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH RAIN (~0.50-0.75 INCH OVERNIGHT) AND
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAIN IN THE ABSENCE OF ROBUST
CONVECTION.
RIVERS ARE RISING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND MINOR FLOODING IS
ONGOING ON KILLBUCK CREEK AND THE SCIOTO RIVER AT LARUE. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN LAST NIGHT OF 1.5 - 2.5 INCHES OCCURRED IN A SWATH
FROM MARION/MORROW COUNTIES NORTHEAST TOWARDS ERIE/HURON COUNTIES IN
OHIO. WE ARE MONITORING RIVERS IN THE GREAT LAKES BASIN AS WELL
INCLUDING BOTH THE SANDUSKY RIVER AT TIFFIN AND THE HURON RIVER AT
MILAN WHICH ARE RISING QUICKLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND
MOVE INTO NW OHIO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE
SPREADS BACK NORTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND COULD RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE, GENERALLY
AFTER 2 OR 3 PM. TEMPERATURES DO TREND WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. MODEST
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BUT TEMPERED BY A WIND SHIFT OFF LAKE ERIE
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NW OHIO BUT FOCUSED NORTH OF THE HEAVIER
AXIS FROM LAST NIGHT WHICH IS GOOD. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH, HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH A DRY
MEMORIAL DAY FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOCUSED ALONG THE EAST COAST EXPANDS NORTH
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
THE LOWER 80S. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTH INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A MIXED BAG ACROSS TERMINALS FROM LIFR TO VFR IN THE WAKE OF
RAIN SHOWERS EARLIER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT AND
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS WESTERN AND EXTREME EASTERN TAF SITES. BIGGEST CHANGE TO
THE TAF WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO INCLUDE A 2-3 HOUR TEMPO GROUP
FOR TSRA ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS (KCLE/KCAK/KYNG/KERI). HAVE
THE TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN ~19Z/SAT TO ~00Z/SUN AS A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ASIDE FROM LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, EXPECT FOR MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIFR, TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE A WINDOW OF AT LEAST IFR
CIGS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES IN BR. BEST
CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OHIO TERMINALS.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS OF 35-40 KNOTS NEAR THE LAKESHORE
(KERI) IN DOWNSLOPING. EXPECT FOR GUSTS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST GIVING WAY TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON-VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM AVON POINT TO RIPLEY NY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS 20-30 KNOTS PERSIST. GIVEN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT,
HIGHEST WAVES WILL OCCUR IN THE OPEN WATERS. THE CURRENT SWIM
RISK FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF HIGHEST WAVES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION
GIVING WAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND WAVES 1 FOOT OR LESS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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