139
FXUS61 KCLE 191104
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
704 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON TUESDAY.
2) COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY WILDFIRE SMOKE RETURN TODAY
WITH A BRIEF WARMUP EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE
DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO A
REGION AS AN UNSEASONABLY DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A WEAKENING COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD LEAVE BEHIND
BOUNDARIES FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE DYNAMIC WIND FIELD WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS AND RESIDUAL CLOUDS. REGARDLESS, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT ON
TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF STRONG
STORMS IS STILL LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
THE TRAJECTORY OF MONDAY NIGHT'S WEAKENING CONVECTION. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LAKE-
ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 50S EXPECTED. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE THE
COOLEST IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH WIDESPREAD 50S ANTICIPATED.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE INTO THE AREA
TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY BE A BIT HAZY AT
TIMES, BUT IMPACTS TO VISIBILITIES/AIR QUALITY WILL NOT BE AS
SEVERE AS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH
HUMIDITY RETURNING IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST ON TUESDAY, BUT AS MENTIONED IN THE FIRST KEY MESSAGE
DISCUSSION, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TIMING
AND PLACEMENT IN ADDITION TO CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY RECOVERING STARTING FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MIXED-BAG OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH POCKETS OF LOWER VSBYS DUE TO WILDFIRE
HAZE/SMOKE. ANTICIPATE VSBYS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING, THOUGH 6SM HAZE MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY, 8 TO 10 KNOTS,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WINDS AT CLE/ERI MAY
FAVOR A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LAND
BREEZE DEVELOPS.
OUTLOOK...POCKETS OF NON-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. RESIDUAL
NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ON RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.
MARINE
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
MORNING AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS AND
MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, AROUND 20 KNOTS, USHERING IN WAVES
OF 3 TO 5 FEET. IN ADDITION, STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ009>012-089.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ144>148.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
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