877
FXUS61 KCLE 291130
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
730 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES AS TODAY MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE HEAT BUILDING INTO
OUR CWA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK UNDER A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THERE ARE NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK AND
THE IMPENDING HEAT WAVE THAT WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT FEATURE IN THE FORECAST
MODELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NAM IS NOW GIVING 850MB TEMPERATURES IN
THE 25-26C RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH REAFFIRMS THE UPPER 90S IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE DEWPOINTS THIS WEEK WILL
BE ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. FROM A MILESTONE
STANDPOINT, A BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY OF THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE
SITES WILL HIT THE 100F MARK AT ANY POINT THIS WEEK, AGAIN, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES BEING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THESE CLIMATE SITES AS WE GO
INTO THIS HEAT WAVE. HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETREAT SLIGHTLY FRIDAY, AND THEN FURTHER INTO
THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT TURNING EITHER
MORE ZONAL OR SLIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF
UPPER LEVEL WAVES INTO THE REGION, AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE ON THE RISE. AS MENTIONED DURING THE FORECAST PROCESS LAST NIGHT,
WILL NEED TO SEE HOW DETAILS UNFOLD WITH THIS PATTERN AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT ANY ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ENCOUNTER THE CWA. BUT DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING HOURS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, POPS IN THE 40
PERCENT RANGE WILL NOT BE UNREASONABLE GOING FORWARD.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AIRSPACE, SOME SUNRISE FOG/MIST
HAS DEVELOPED BUT HAS LARGELY MISSED THE TERMINALS. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TO THE
WEST, SOME RAIN AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAS ENTERED THE REGION
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THIS REGION
HAS ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR TO DEVELOP, WHICH SHOULD ALSO QUICKLY
MIX OUT THIS MORNING. OVERALL, THE THEME FOR TODAY IS VFR WITH A
MIX OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INTERMITTENT CEILINGS.
FOR KCLE AND KERI, THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE THAT WILL REACH
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE, ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW.
OUTLOOK...VFR.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW AVERAGING 10
KTS WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RECORD WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED. HERE ARE THOSE RECORDS
FOR EACH OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS:
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
06-29 100(1952) 96(1934) 94(2012) 98(1952) 99(1933) 90(2021)
06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930)
07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018)
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ003-
006-017.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
OHZ007>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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