977  
FXUS61 KCLE 272028  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
428 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD SOUTH OVER THE AREA THIS  
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS  
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE MAJORITY OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE QUIET WEATHER  
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES THANKS TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING IN THE EASTERN REACHES OF  
THE CWA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER  
40S ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. A  
FEW SPOTS IN INTERIOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MAY VERY BRIEFLY  
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  
PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THIS  
WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS OVERNIGHT - ANY  
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT IF CLOUDS  
CLEAR MORE THAN ANTICIPATED THERE MAY BE MORE RADIATIONAL  
COOLING AND AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FROST. WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES, BUT INCLUDED  
PATCHY FROST IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT (MOST  
LIKELY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT) AS ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES  
NORTHEAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN TENNESSEE  
VALLEY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF  
PRECIP, BUT HAVE POPS RAMPING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST  
AROUND 00Z, WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SPREADING ACROSS THE MAJORITY  
OF THE LOCAL AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOCALLY MODERATE TO  
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIP  
POSSIBLE BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE  
50S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ROTATE NORTH INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AND  
PROLONGED EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ON LAKE ERIE. DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY  
FLOW ORIGINATING FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL FOCUS MOISTURE  
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LOW.  
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVING  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE  
BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NEW YORK WITH  
DRY AIR ALOFT STARTING TO WRAP NORTH INTO THE SYSTEM. BREAKS IN  
THE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OCCASIONAL LIGHTER  
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, LAKE ENHANCED RAIN ACROSS  
NORTHWEST OHIO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO ON  
SATURDAY AND MORE TOWARDS THE SNOWBELT REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT  
AS FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE SHIFTS FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO  
NORTHWESTERLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL AND  
ROTATE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER, LOWERED HIGHS ON FRIDAY  
BY A COUPLE DEGREES CLOSER TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MOIST SYSTEM  
WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL SPREAD WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID  
40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS AND HOW LONG  
IT TAKES FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PULL AWAY. THESE CLOSED  
SYSTEMS CAN OFTEN EVOLVE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED SO WILL MAINTAIN  
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT INTO SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A WEAK  
TROUGH NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS  
LAKE ERIE SO CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.  
 
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE  
ENERGY STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE A LOW  
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW AND  
WILL NEED ADJUSTED. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL AS THE  
UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT  
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE A FEW SIGNS OF CLEARING ACROSS  
NORTHWEST OHIO, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A MORE OPTIMISTIC OUTCOME FOR  
KTOL/KFDY. CLEARING IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF  
THE AREA AND THIS TREND SHOULD BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AS HIGH  
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD  
GRADUALLY DEVELOP AT KERI BY 00Z AND EXPAND WEST TO KCLE BY 04Z  
AND KFDY/KTOL BY 15Z THURSDAY AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH  
18Z THURSDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS CONTINUE  
THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO  
6 TO 12 KNOTS BY 12Z THURSDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO  
QUEBEC AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE MID-  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25  
KNOTS LATE THURSDAY, THEN TO 30 KNOTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW  
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT A MINIMUM EXPECT TO NEED  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. WE WILL BE  
MONITORING FOR ANY STRONGER PERIODS OF WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR  
GALES. THE PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN  
RISING WATER LEVELS ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE AND WE WILL  
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE LAKESHORE FLOODING. WINDS WILL  
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTHERLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
DECREASE BELOW 20 KNOTS. BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE  
WEST AT 10-20 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN  
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH  
OF THE LAKES.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MAINES  
NEAR TERM...MAINES  
SHORT TERM...KEC  
LONG TERM...KEC  
AVIATION...MAINES  
MARINE...KEC  
 
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