207
FXUS61 KCLE 311832
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
232 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE WEEK. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY.
2) POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY AND PEAKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TODAY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY INTO MONDAY WITH
RE-ENFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY/TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WE GET INTO LIGHT RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN
TO RISE OVER THE EASTERN US. THE WEAK GRADIENT WILL LIKELY
ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES MOST AFTERNOONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, KEEPING LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE LAKE A BIT COOLER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BUILDING WARMTH AND INCREASING HUMIDITY, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY, THOUGH AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
PROVIDES SOME MINIMAL FORCING IT'S POSSIBLE THERE'S JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BY
JUST TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT WITH RATHER MINIMAL JET
SUPPORT, LIKELY ALLOWING FOR DISORGANIZED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY.
WHILE SOME MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES BUILD HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH FOR SUNDAY, OTHERS MOVE THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE IN FROM THE WEST QUICKER. THAT WOULD KEEP THE
FRONT FARTHER NORTH FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
LEADING TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEW POINTS ALSO
CLIMB INTO THE 60S. SUNDAY'S FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT'S
PLACEMENT, WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AND SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND MILDER, DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH.
OVERALL, THERE ARE LOW RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY BUT SOME LIMITED
ACTIVITY CAN'T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE DAY. SATURDAY IS THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DAY FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED/DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, WITH A 40-60% CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR CHANCES (40-60%) ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH DO NOTE THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. THE OVERALL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS LOW, GIVEN
RATHER MODEST AMOUNTS OF FORCING AND SHEAR. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE AVERAGE AND A
MORE HUMID AIRMASS THAT AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND
HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL BECOME SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FLYING IN AND OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NWPA WILL BE IDEAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS. A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OF 5 TO 8 KNOTS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE A LIGHT LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AT CLE AND ERI UP TO
8 KNOTS BEFORE RETURNING TO VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND KEEP QUIET
MARINE CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK.
A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE. WITH THAT UPTICK OF NE WINDS,
WAVES MAY BRIEFLY CLIMB UP TO 2 TO 3 FEET WITH THOSE DAILY
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. A SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
AROUND TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS MAY RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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