191  
FXUS61 KCLE 190611  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
211 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA TODAY WHILE  
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS IOWA/ILLINOIS/INDIANA.  
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY.  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A  
TROUGH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER  
TO DISAPPEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONLY MADE MINOR  
CHANGES TO THE CLOUD COVER AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT  
CURRENT TRENDS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION HELP  
DEVELOPED QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.  
INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE ALONG  
WITH COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION HELP DEVELOPED QUITE A BIT OF SCATTERED  
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL SCATTERED OUT THIS  
EVENING AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN WITH LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS. WEAK SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL  
RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
JUST A TOUCH BELOW SEASONABLE AVERAGES. QUIET WEATHER WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS STILL SHOWING LOW  
PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS BECOMING ABSORBED BY LOW PRESSURE MOVING  
EAST THROUGH ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM BOTH  
SPREADS INTO THE AREA. BELIEVE THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE  
DAY WILL REMAIN DRY BUT AFTER MID MORNING BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE  
POPS FOR RAIN INTO THE FAR WEST. FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE  
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA AND HAVE  
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BELIEVE PRECIP WILL BE  
FURTHER ENHANCED EAST BY A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH TO OUR  
NORTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AFTER  
MIDNIGHT. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS EAST AND CHANCE  
WEST. THURSDAY MORNING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TO OUR EAST  
BUT STILL WITH MODELS SHOWING THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH INTO NWRN  
PA AND NERN OH WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS INITIALLY IN NWRN  
PA WITH CHANCE POPS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
AREA. DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE  
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES AND INTO  
THE AFTER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT IN FLOW FROM NORTH OF THE  
ARCTIC CIRCLE. FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MOVE IN FROM THE  
WEST. WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS AND CLOUDS EAST BUT WEST  
SHOULD SEE SUN AND SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY 48 TO 52,  
THURSDAY LOW TO MID 40S, AND FRIDAY MID 40S TO NEAR 50.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND  
MODERATING TEMPS AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO  
FROM THE PACIFIC. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MODELS POINT TO INCREASING  
RAIN CHANCES AS MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND  
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL HAVE  
CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME. HIGHS UPPER 40S TO MID 50S  
SATURDAY, 55 TO 60 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR VFR  
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A PATCHY AREA OF 7000 FT CLOUDS  
OVER NW OHIO WILL EXPAND EAST THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS ENOUGH TO  
GET A BROKEN CEILING AT A TERMINAL OR TWO. HOWEVER, THESE CLOUDS  
SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS  
SHOULD BE PRESENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, A LAKE BREEZE  
WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND AT  
KERI AND KCLE. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY FORM OVER THE AREA BUT  
NOTHING TOO IMPACTFUL AT THE TERMINALS.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT ON LAKE ERIE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY  
NIGHT AT ROUGHLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE  
REGION. WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES  
EAST ACROSS ONTARIO DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL  
LAKES. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS  
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE  
TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST AND DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS  
BEHIND A COLD FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY WEST TO  
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. FRIDAY EXPECT  
NORTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE  
EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ONTO THE LAKES FROM  
THE WEST. SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE AND  
SHOULD KEEP WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...GRIFFIN  
NEAR TERM...GRIFFIN/MM  
SHORT TERM...TK  
LONG TERM...TK  
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC  
MARINE...TK  
 
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