421
FXUS61 KCLE 270022
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
822 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY HAVE INCREASED,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A FINDLAY, OH TO MEADVILLE, PA LINE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A FINDLAY, OH TO MEADVILLE, PA LINE. THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE ANY RAIN.
2) DRY AND VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS (AND LIKELY
BEYOND) WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TRAVERSES AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS DRIVING A BAND OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AND AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT, THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT THE BOUNDARY
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH
A 60-70 KNOT H3 JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. THE LATEST HREF, RAP, AND NAM
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A BAND OF SHOWERS SETTING UP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A ROUGHLY FINDLAY TO MEADVILLE LINE IN THE 09-16Z
TIMEFRAME BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEPART.
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN MUCH OF THIS SWATH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME CHANCE POPS
FARTHER NORTH, ALTHOUGH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
NOT SEE ANY RAIN.
A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVERTAKE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO COOL, DRY N
TO NE FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LONG STRETCH OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
THAT SETS IN THURSDAY WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEYOND THE NEXT 7
DAYS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN HIGH AT THE SURFACE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, IT WILL BE
HELD LARGELY IN PLACE BY AN OMEGA BLOCK IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. LINGERING MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NE CONUS WILL
EVOLVE INTO A LARGE CLOSED LOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A SERIES
OF MID/UPPER TROUGHS AND CLOSED LOWS ROTATE THROUGH THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL PINCH OFF A LARGE MID/UPPER RIDGE IN BETWEEN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA. THIS BLOCK WILL ALSO BE
REINFORCED BY SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IN THE DEEP SOUTH. THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE
OF THE OMEGA BLOCK, WITH UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE LAKES SUPPORTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL N TO NE FLOW THURSDAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S, WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A THICK DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND WILL
REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS ARE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND CEILINGS BELOW 10 KFT WILL START
TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN IMPACTING KFDY, KMFD, KCAK, AND
KYNG. SOME MORE INTENSE RAIN WITH LOWERING VISIBILITIES COULD
GET INTO KFDY AND KMFD AND HAVE INTRODUCED SOME MVFR TEMPO
GROUPS. RAIN WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
VFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...VFR IS LARGELY FAVORED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS SLOWLY SE'WARD BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT
SWEEPS GENERALLY S'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT BECOME N'ERLY TO NE'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE
FRONT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE HUDSON BAY
AREA. THIS RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY THROUGH THIS SUNDAY AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY NW'ERLY
TO NE'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3
FEET OR LESS THE REST OF THIS WEEK THROUGH SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...JASZKA
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