299
FXUS61 KCLE 121121
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
721 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE WEATHER, ALLOWING FOR THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO BE CANCELED THIS MORNING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
DEPARTS EAST. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST, BUT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AND STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS A ROBUST COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
FRIDAY HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. IN ADDITION TO COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND WITH FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WILL BE A NICE REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN
LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ADDITIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY AND HIGHS DROP INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ON FRIDAY, A SURFACE RIDGE WILL NUDGE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA,
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND LINGERING STORMS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY, A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODELS SUGGESTING IT
LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEK. ALONG THIS BROAD TROUGH, MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE AXIS, PROVIDING PERIODS OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
EAST ON SUNDAY, MOVING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EAST. MODELS DIVERGE
A BIT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE A DETERMINING FACTOR IN STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING MORE
DIURNALLY FAVORABLE TIMING. AFTER SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MAY
BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT, NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
CONVECTION OR FLOODING CONCERNS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
KTOL/KFDY SHORTLY AND TERMINALS TO THE EAST WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE 2 TO 3 HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE CEILINGS RISE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF WEST AT 8 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO
25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.
MARINE
WEST WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. SIMILAR FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING
AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME. WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ007-009.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ010-011.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>144.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ145-
146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ147>149.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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