312
FXUS61 KCLE 221117
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
717 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOMALOUSLY-COOL AIR MASS ARRIVES TODAY WITH LAKE- EFFECT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
3) TEMPERATURES RETURN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 6C. STARTING TO SEE SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SNOWBELT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE LAKE-
INDUCED CAPE RESULTING FROM THE NEAR ~21C 850 MB/WATER
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE, COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIMITED WITH A 700 MB INVERSION AND DRY AIR ALOFT IN PLACE.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE ARRIVING OFF OF LAKE HURON MAY RESULT
IN BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. GIVEN THE CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE AND
CLOUD COVER, HIGHS TODAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70 MARK IN
SOME SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND FURTHER EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HOWEVER,
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ACROSS HUDSON BAY APPEAR POISED
TO BLOCK THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK (LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY), WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ORGANIZED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE SUPPORTIVE MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AT NE OH/NW PA TERMINALS THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 8 TO
12 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST WINDS TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KERI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE
ISLANDS EAST TO RIPLEY NY THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE HEADLINES MAY END AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON AS WAVES QUICKLY SUBSIDE WITH THE DIMINISHING ONSHORE
FLOW. FROM THERE, VARIABLE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS MAY INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER LAKE ERIE
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS IN
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TODAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN ANY LAND BREEZE
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL SO
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS POINT, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL DURING FUTURE UPDATES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ010>012-
089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ144>149.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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