654
FXUS61 KCLE 272353
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
753 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE DEPARTING EAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
2) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM ERIE, PA SOUTHWEST TO MARION, OH
HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
OVERALL WEAK ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA, NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THESE
TO TURN SEVERE. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY, AN EXPANSIVE
DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED, BUT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY GET ISOLATED LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN BY SATURDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. IN ADDITION, THIS HIGH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A MID WEEK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA,
ULTIMATELY ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
TO LATE WEEK, BUT GIVEN MODEL VARIATIONS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THIS IS FAIRLY LOW.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LARGE
DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT TO OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE POCKETS OF MIST AND FOG THAT COULD IMPACT KFDY, KMFD,
KCAK, AND KYNG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LESS
OF A CHANCE AT KTOL. TRENDED VISIBILITIES SLIGHTLY LOWER
(AROUND 3SM), BUT CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES IS
STILL LOW. ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH
JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT W TO NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NE LATE
TONIGHT, WITH NE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR, BUT WITH PATCHY NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/MIST EARLY IN THE MORNINGS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OF 5-15 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING THEN VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AT 5-15 KNOTS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY FRIDAY MORNING WITH WAVES OF
1 TO 3 FEET AND ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS DROP OFF QUICKLY THOUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A LOW END THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS OVERNIGHT AS THIS
TROUGH CROSSES LAKE ERIE.
GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS
OF GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 5-15
KNOTS AT TIMES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...10
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