609
FXUS61 KCLE 240723
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
323 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
2) SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MAJOR CHANGE TO BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH SETTLES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE DEPARTING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AGAIN AND CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
ATTENTION TONIGHT WILL TURN TO THE NEXT SYSTEM AS A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MOVES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE LEFT EXIT OF A 90-100 KNOT H3 JET STREAK WILL
SUPPORT A MODEST SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
AND LAKE HURON THURSDAY, AND THIS WILL PULL A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ENTERING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY WHERE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT CAN BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT.
THE LATEST CAMS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE, BUT TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD A STRONGER NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET AVERAGING 20-30 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER JET STREAK MENTIONED ABOVE, AND THIS WILL ADVECT IN ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER AND WILL ALSO BOOST THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF RAIN NEAR THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS POINTS TOWARD THE GREATEST COVERAGE BEING NEAR
THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES, SO EXPANDED LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS IN
THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION, BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW-IMPACT RAIN.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS
STARTING TO CONVERGE ON AN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WHICH IS DIURNALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER,
THE MORNING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER LINGERING FROM THE
REMNANTS OF THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
IS ABLE TO BUILD. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY LINGER OVER
MUCH OF NE OHIO AND NW PA THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING, AND THAT
WILL DISRUPT SURFACE HEATING OF WHAT IS ALREADY NOT A VERY WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS BY SUMMER STANDARDS. IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR,
MLCAPE SHOULD REACH AROUND 1000 J/KG, AND THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP
LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR LIKELY OVER 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE LATEST SWODY2 PLACES
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA, AND THIS IS
REASONABLE. THE 90-100 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK ROTATING OVERHEAD AND
45-50 KNOTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW MAKE THINGS POTENTIALLY INTERESTING IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REACHED. THE 00Z HREF IS STARTING TO PICK
UP ON CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR, SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS MARGINAL RISK
EXPANDED FARTHER NORTHWEST INTO MORE OF OUR CWA.
BRIEF DRYING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SETTLES
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT ANOTHER MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES THE PAST FEW RUNS AND BLOWS UP AN
UNREALISTICALLY STRONG SURFACE LOW, BUT PLENTY OF MID/UPPER JET
SUPPORT WILL EXIST FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION,
SO THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT STRATIFORM
RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REACH INTO OUR CWA AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A FINDLAY TO WARREN LINE. THIS
WILL ELEVATE CLOUD COVER AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IF YOU HAVE ENJOYED THE COOL WEATHER OF LATE, ENJOY IT WHILE IT
LASTS BECAUSE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS LIKELY NEXT
WEEK. THE MID/UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS DOMINATED THE NORTHERN
TIER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN START
TO RETREAT INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP MID/UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING WEST OF THE ROCKIES. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WILL CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY (SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT), BUT THAT
WILL BE REPLACED BY BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOW 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND WITH DEW
POINTS RISING INTO THE 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY NEAR OR EXCEED
100 F EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY SEASON HEAT IS ALWAYS MORE DANGEROUS,
AND EVERYONE WILL HAVE TO RE-ACLIMATE AFTER THE RECENT COOL WEATHER.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HEAT COULD
PERSIST ALL OF NEXT WEEK, SO HEAT HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE IF THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE IN THIS MANNER.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITES AT YNG BUT COULD SEE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT
TOL/FDY/MFD/CAK AS WELL. OTHERWISE, VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD LATER TODAY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVE BETWEEN 06-12Z THURS AND INCLUDED A VICINITY SHOWER AT
CLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
AFTER 15Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT CLE/ERI WHERE LAKE BREEZES
ARE EXPECTED WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW OF 5-9 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
LAKE BREEZES WITH ONSHORE FLOW OF 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND COULD LEAD TO ERRATIC WIND/WAVE
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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