992
FXUS61 KCLE 170807
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
407 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONTINUES TO INCREASE,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL PRODUCE POOR AIR QUALITY AND REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TODAY.
2) A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
3) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY AND THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL WILDFIRE SMOKE INTO THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, RESULTING IN CONTINUED REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AND UNHEALTHY TO HAZARDOUS AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 2 MILES THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY WORSE VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE.
LOCAL AND STATE PARTNERING AGENCIES HAVE ISSUED AIR QUALITY
ALERTS AREAWIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A WARM
FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION. BY THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY
MORNING, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT PATCHY SMOKE IS ONLY PRESENT ACROSS
FAR NW PA. IN ADDITION, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HELP IMPROVE
AIR QUALITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/PLACEMENT
OF STORMS IS LOW AT THIS POINT. STORMS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
ELEVATED LATER THIS EVENING AND IT'S POSSIBLE THAT PRECIP
STRUGGLES TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM THE
WILDFIRE SMOKE. ANY STRONGER STORMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD EXIT
TO THE EAST BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME CAMS HAVE
SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
DEVELOP WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF SHOWERS AND REMAINING
CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING, MLCAPE VALUES WILL
LIKELY REACH 2500-3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD
CERTAINLY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT. A LLJ WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION AND EXPECT SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH
THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE AND OVER NE
OH/NW PA. AS A RESULT, STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE A QLCS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES
CAN'T BE RULED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE GIVEN THE
SHEAR PROFILE. THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
5) OF SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-71 ARE HIGHLIGHTED WITH GREATER PROBABILITIES OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A SLIGHTLY MORE ENHANCED TORNADO RISK
DUE TO THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SMOKE WILL HELP MITIGATE HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES TODAY, BUT
STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY FLIRT WITH 100 DEGREES OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID, THERE MAY BE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND DURING PEAK
HEATING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE/HEAT
INDEX VALUES. AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS LOW AND ISOLATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY; HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. TEMPS WILL WARM BY SEVERAL DEGREES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RETURN FOR MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR CONTINUES ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH WILDFIRE SMOKE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION, THOUGH ANTICIPATE IFR SMOKE TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT AT TOL/FDY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, 5 TO 7 KNOTS. A LAKE BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP AT CLE/ERI EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 6 TO 8 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 50
KNOTS.
MARINE
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY
AS SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, 15 TO 20 KNOTS, BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS, TRANSITIONING TO BOTH A WIND AND WAVE CONCERN
BY SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER
PERIOD FOR ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORED TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS LAKE
ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ003-
006>009-017>019-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>149-162>169.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
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