994
FXUS61 KCLE 250504
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1204 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLIP THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY BEFORE A
MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT,
SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW AND MARKING THE RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS UPDATE, THE SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH COMPARED TO PRIOR, ALLOWING FOR THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30. THERE
IS EXPECTED TO BE PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAT THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND NUISANCE FLOODING
BRIEFLY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A NON- ZERO POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER AS MODELS SUGGEST MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK MOVING WITH
ALL SHOWERS ENDING BY 12Z THURSDAY AS A BRIEF RIDGE BUILDS IN.
THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY CHRISTMAS DAY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDY
SKIES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES,
GRADUALLY WARMING AS ONE MOVES SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SEE THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ON THE UPCOMING WINTER MIX.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
6:30 PM UPDATE...
SOME MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY
WINTRY WEATHER. POPS WERE UPDATED TO 3-HR BLOCKS TO PROVIDE
BETTER TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF WINTRY WEATHER FRIDAY MORNING AND
FOR THE END TIME FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE WINTER STORM
WATCH WAS ALSO ADJUSTED FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE START
TIME WAS CHANGED FROM 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AS MOST OF THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT IN THE
850-700MB LATEST THAT WILL TAKE SOME TO SATURATE, PREVENTING ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM FALLING UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. THE END TIME
WAS ALSO ADJUSTED FROM 00Z TO 03Z FRIDAY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HANGING ON FOR A FEW HOURS, THERE ARE A
FEW MODELS THAT HAVING FREEZING RAIN LASTING AS LONG AS 06 OR
09Z, SO THE EVENTUAL WARNING OR ADVISORY MAY NEED A LATEST TIME
THAN EVEN 03Z, DEPENDING ON WHAT FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS
LIKE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN IMPACTFUL MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT IS LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH ADDITIONAL IMPACTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO. IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS
ACCUMULATING ICE DUE TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WITH 0.1 TO 0.3
INCHES OF ICE POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 0.1 INCH OF
ICE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, A WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN
PA. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE, BUT WOULD BE
ISSUED WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
NOW LOOKING AT MORE OF THE INTRICACIES OF THIS TRICKY FORECAST... ON
THURSDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, THE TRICKY PART IS
IN WHAT FORM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED WARM AIR WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID LAYERS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A LAYER OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES, LENDING TO MELTING PRECIPITATION. THE TRICKY
PART IS HOW QUICKLY THE WAA KICKS IN AT THE SURFACE TO HELP BRING
THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THERE AS WELL. MANY MODELS MAINTAIN
SURFACES WINDS WITH A EASTERLY COMPONENT INTO FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A
VERY GRADUALLY WARMING AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE SWATCH OF HEAVIEST QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE
AND INTO NORTHWEST PA. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING ICE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS
NWPA WHERE HIGHER QPF AND PROLONGED COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.1-0.3 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES AND THE MAGNITUDE OF PRECIPITATION.
AS WAA GRADUALLY INCREASES SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS GAIN A
MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT FREEZE TO
SURFACES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS OCCURRING FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.
AS WITH ANY FORECAST RELATED TO WINTER WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION
TYPES, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AND ANY MINOR CHANGES HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO DRAMATICALLY SHIFT THE FORECAST. THE BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS ACROSS NWOH AS THERE REMAINS SOME
DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WITH THIS UPDATE, THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT TREND IN THAT LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTH A BIT, WHICH MAY POSE AN INCREASED THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NWOH, INCLUDING THE TOLEDO METRO. WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS ADDITIONAL WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED OUTSIDE OF NWPA.
BY LATE FRIDAY, ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AS
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED POPS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
ON FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD FRIDAY NIGHT, FALLING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S. SATURDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT ACROSS THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 40S BEFORE COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ON SUNDAY, A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SUPPORT
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
MOVING A ROBUST COLD FRONT EAST AND ULTIMATELY MARKING THE RETURN OF
WINTER THE AREA. MUCH OF THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN AS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH QPF TOTALS OF 0.25 TO 0.7
INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. THESE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BECOME ALL SNOW AS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF -14 TO - 16C MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHICH
REMAINS ABOVE 0C WILL RESULT IN MODERATE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE, EXTENT, OR
EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOWFALL, BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LAKE
EFFECT OCCURRING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, CLIMBING INTO THE 50S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COOL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
20S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. PERIODS OF SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
AROUND 10-11Z. LOWER CEILINGS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH WILL LAG THEIR DEPARTING, LINGERING LONGER
THROUGH THE MORNING WHERE THEY OCCUR. MVFR IS MOST LIKELY,
THOUGH IFR IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION,
INCLUDING KFDY & KMFD.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES, WITH A MORE
MVFR CLOUDS ROLLING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE LATER THIS EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, GIVING WAY TO RAIN BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTRY MIX MAY
LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW
CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. NON-VFR IS LIKELY TO
RETURN ON SUNDAY IN WIDESPREAD RAIN, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
MAINLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY WITH
VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS AND GENERALLY WEAK TO MODEST FLOW. ONE
PERIOD THAT MAY NEED MONITORING IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WHEN INITIALLY EASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER, FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FAVOR A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEADLINES. OTHERWISE, ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA,
USHERING IN WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. POTENTIALLY HIGHER
WINDS OF NEAR 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST ITERATIONS TO
SEE IF A GALE WATCH IS WARRANTED.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...04/SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...04/SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...KAHN
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