714
FXUS61 KCLE 070622
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
222 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
POPPED UP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS CONVECTION TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES ARE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCH. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MEANDERING OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER FRIDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS WILL HEAVE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW MOVING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THAT WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WEAK FRONT WILL
SLOW DOWN AND MEANDER AROUND THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RAIN CONTINUES TO FILL IN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO EARLY THIS
MORNING. KTOL IS JUST MISSING OUT ON SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST
SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYBREAK,
RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A KCLE TO KMFD LINE AND
CONTINUING EAST. A BREAK IN ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AIRSPACE BEHIND THE RAIN ACTIVITY. TERMINALS THAT GET THAT BREAK
EARLIER IN THE MORNING MAY SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST OHIO. WITH A BIT OF CLEARING, THERE SHOULD
BE SOME SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING SOME THUNDER CHANCES.
THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM COVERAGE WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST
TERMINALS INCLUDING KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT STORM TIMING. HAVE SOME MIX OF PROB30 AND VICINITY RAIN
AND TS CHANCES AT ALL TERMINALS TO GIVE SOME INDICATION OF
ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLE NON-VFR BUT ADDITIONAL TWEAKS WILL BE
NEEDED AS NEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO SCATTERED RAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
DEPENDING ON RAIN COVERAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY, SOME FOG/MIST MAY
DEVELOP AS CONDITIONS CLEAR WITH THE BREAK IN ACTIVITY. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED FURTHER IN THE NEXT SET OF TAFS. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FAVORED.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY,
MONDAY, AND TUESDAY AND MAY BRING SOME INTERMITTENT NON-VFR TO
THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO ACROSS THE LAKE AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE AREA OF
THE LAKE TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH GOOD MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED NORTHWEST, ONSHORE FLOW.
WINDS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR WAVES TO
IMMEDIATELY BUILD AND A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE QUICK TO ENTER ON
SUNDAY TO FLIP WINDS TO THE SOUTH AGAIN. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE AND SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY. OVERALL, WITH MOSTLY OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, MARINE HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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