536
FXUS61 KCLE 151128
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
728 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE LOW PRESSURE HAS TRENDED WEAKER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF FORECAST
RUNS LEADING WIND GUSTS TENDING LOWER FOR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS.
3) COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MIDDAY TODAY AND DEEPEN TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
LATE THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER NORTHWESTERN OHIO BY 6-8PM THIS
EVENING AND MOVE EASTWARD. THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER EAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INSTABILITY WILL WANE. ON THE NOTE OF INSTABILITY, TEMPERATURES
THROUGH OUT THE DAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 70S WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S BY LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY, IN THE FOR OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ALONG AND
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES
NORTH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 50 KNOTS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET. WITH THIS, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR GREATER. THOUGH
POOR LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN AND LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
CURRENTLY, SPC HAS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE AS WELL WITH
THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES THROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING AROUND 0.25-.50" OF ACCUMULATION WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LOW PRESSURE
ITSELF HAS TRENDED WEAKER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. THIS
IS LEADING TO WIND GUSTS AND WINDS OVERALL BEING LOWER, EVEN WITH
THE STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE 15-
20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST TIMEFRAME FOR
WINDS WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE
LAKESHORE, GENERALLY FROM THE ISLANDS EAST THROUGH LAKE COUNTY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35-40 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFTING TO BE
OUT OF THE NORTH, LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AN ADDITIONAL
COUPLE TENTH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE LINGER SHOWERS,
PRIMARILY AROUND CLEVELAND AND SOUTH THROUGH AKRON DUE TO THE
CONNECTION FROM LAKE HURON WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS. THE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION WITH THE NORTHWEST THE NORTH FLOW SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORE STAYING IN THE
40S. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR THE REGION,
SO THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING FROST HEADLINES FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE THE COLDEST LOCATION IN
THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S, BUT WINDS BEING 10-15 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY INHIBIT FROST FORMATION.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES AT 36 DEGREES OR LOWER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE BUILT
IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
CLOUD COVER AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AT LESS THAN 5 MPH ALLOWING FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TRENDS STILL HAVE THE AREAS EAST OF THE
I-71 CORRIDOR AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE WITH AN OVER 50% CHANCE OF
SEEING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. FROST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE WITH LOWER PROBABILITY NEAR THE LAKESHORE GIVEN THE LAKE
IS STILL RELATIVELY WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TO
MORE SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS STARTING SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. MOST SITES REMAIN
MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS THIS MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE MOST
COMMON TODAY, THOUGH THEY'LL BOUNCE UP AND DOWN SOME AND THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MODEST IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN
WHICH SOME SITES WILL TRY GOING VFR. MVFR CEILINGS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH, WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AS WELL. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS CAN BRING BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. HAVE SOME
PROB30 GROUPS FOR LOWER VIS AND/OR TSRA POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH TOL/FDY NEAR THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD (12Z FRIDAY) AND THE REMAINING SITES SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. SHOWERS WITH SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY FILL
IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH CEILINGS MAINLY
REMAINING MVFR BUT PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR AT A FEW SITES.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY, AND THEN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15KT WITH SOME
25-30KT GUSTS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A 40-50KT LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NO SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION SO IT'S
UNCLEAR IF WE'LL SEE TRUE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OR IF
GUSTS/TURBULENCE WILL BE MORE COMMON. FOR NOW LEFT THE LLWS OUT
OF TAFS, THOUGH FUTURE CYCLES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE IT AND EITHER
WAY CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLE ON TAKEOFF/LANDING.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY
GUST OVER 30KT AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES FROM THE ISLANDS THROUGH WILLOWICK, OH WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELED EARLY. WINDS THROUGHOUT TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
AT 10-15 KNOTS, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING
TO 20-25 KNOTS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THIS
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THOUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 20-25 KNOTS FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FEET ACROSS
THE LAKE AS A RESULT.
A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 25-30 KNOTS AND
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 7-11 FEET. THE PROBABILITY OF GALES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN AS DECREASE DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRENDING
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY. THOUGH, WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOT GALES
ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ELEVATED WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THEY DIMINISH TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY
MIDDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO SATURDAY EVENING TO
AROUND 5-15 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH
WAVES DIMINISHING AS WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING TO 10-15 KNOTS AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...23
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