435  
FXUS61 KCLE 180933  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
433 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY  
WITH A RIDGE EXPANDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND IT. LOW PRESSURE WILL  
TRACK OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER  
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF  
THE AREA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA  
BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM NEAR JAMES BAY TO EASTERN LAKE  
ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW SPOTS ARE EXPERIENCING FOG BUT  
THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS NORTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE  
DEPARTING TROUGH. SNOW CONTINUES EAST OF CLEVELAND INTO NW  
PENNSYLVANIA BUT WILL TAPER OFF IN OHIO SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE  
AND IN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS  
AWAY TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT,  
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS BEFORE ENDING.  
 
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DIURNAL HEATING TODAY TO KEEP  
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY STEADY. STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO HOLD ON  
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WINTER STORM WATCH  
REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE  
WEEKEND. SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR INFORMATION ON THE  
APPROACHING WINTER STORM.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE  
LOW ON SATURDAY. ALL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT THAT THE LOW  
WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS  
TRACK WILL END UP PRODUCING A SWATH OF HEAVIER SNOW FROM WEST  
CENTRAL OHIO NORTHEASTWARD INTO NW PA. LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE 6+  
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE FROM UPPER  
SANDUSKY TO LORAIN. THE 8+ INCHES REGION WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR  
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT GILEAD TO MEADVILLE. THERE IS  
STILL SOME CONCERN THAT THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO DIG A  
BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH WITH PLENTY OF JET ENERGY ON THE WEST  
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE  
PLAINS. THIS COULD DELAY WHEN THE STORM WILL EJECT TO THE  
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO KEEP THE AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. SO FOR NOW WE HAVE TRENDED  
THE SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWN A BIT WITH FURTHER REDUCTION POSSIBLE  
WHEN WE KNOW FOR SURE THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW LATER TONIGHT.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THERE WILL  
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT DEVELOPS AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE  
SEASON ARRIVES. SO SOME LIGHT AND FLUFFY LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD  
ACCUMULATE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY TO DETERMINE WHICH AREAS NEED  
THE HEADLINES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AND END BY THE EVENING AS  
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  
 
THE COLD AIR AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER  
STORY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. WINDCHILL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY  
WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS BY THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHEAST WIND  
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THESE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS  
WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE COLD AIR  
ARRIVES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL  
DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY. AS SKIES CLEAR  
ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES  
WILL PLUMMET AND SHOULD FALL TO -5 TO -10 DEGREES. WARMER UNDER  
THE CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO  
AROUND ZERO. FORTUNATELY THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY MONDAY  
MORNING WHICH SHOULD ONLY ALLOW WIND CHILL READINGS TO DIP TO  
AROUND -10 TO -15. WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A HEADLINE FOR THE  
COLD WIND CHILLS AT A LATER POINT IN TIME.  
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE  
REGION TO THE EAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT A FEW  
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DIP JUST BELOW ZERO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM  
WILL BE APPROACHING ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.  
THIS WILL MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE IN  
THE TEENS AND 20S. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
BUT SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SOME RAIN FOR THE LATE  
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WE ARE HOPING THE PRECIPITATION  
ENDS BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SO WE AVOID  
ANY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT  
ON WEDNEDAY MAY END UP PRODUCING A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LOTS  
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM STORM  
SYSTEM THAT WILL RIDE THIS FRONT NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF  
THE US WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS MAY END UP ENHANCING THE  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR A BIT BUT AT THIS POINT THE TRACK AND  
TIMING IS VERY UNCERTAIN. EXPECT TO SEE WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD  
FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK TO THE 20S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
SNOW LINGERING AT YNG/ERI WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH  
09Z EXCEPT POSSIBLY LINGERING ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT ERI A  
LITTLE LONGER. IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND HAVE REACHED  
ALL TERMINALS BUT CLE/ERI. FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOME SITES  
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO AND MAY NUDGE NORTH INTO MFD/CAK THROUGH  
10Z. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS WEST TO  
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. A GRADUAL  
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM 10-18Z. OTHERWISE FRIDAY  
WILL BE DRY WITH SNOW SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE 06-12Z  
WINDOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY THEN RETURNS SATURDAY  
AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY COULD POTENTIALLY FEATURE  
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW  
VISIBILITIES. NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT MONDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TODAY WITH NORTHWEST  
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP  
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE  
NORTHEAST. THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME SATURDAY EVENING WHEN WINDS MAY  
APPROACH LOW END GALES. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THIS. A  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE  
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL GENERATE SOME  
FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS WINDS DECREASE UNDER  
THE COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING  
THERE COULD BE A RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF ICE ON THE WESTERN BASIN OF  
LAKE ERIE. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY  
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST OF THE US BY MID DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL  
ALLOW THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH  
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT  
FOR OHZ009>014-019>023-029>031-089.  
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING  
FOR OHZ028-032-033-036>038-047.  
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING  
FOR OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027.  
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT  
FOR PAZ001>003.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KEC  
NEAR TERM...KEC  
SHORT TERM...MULLEN  
LONG TERM...MULLEN  
AVIATION...KEC  
MARINE...MULLEN  
 
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