986  
FXUS61 KCLE 261111  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
711 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL  
SAG ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRONT  
WILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY, ALLOWING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TO  
RETURN TO START THE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO  
CROSS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST THROUGH TONIGHT INCLUDE TIMING OF  
CONTINUED INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...  
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER...  
AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS DRIVING PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES  
WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST NORTH OF TOLEDO  
TO NEAR WOOSTER AS OF 3 AM AND IS LIFTING NORTHEAST. A COLD  
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS  
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST  
LATE TONIGHT. ALOFT, A VERY SUBTLE VORT MAX IS LOCATED OVER  
NORTHWEST OHIO AND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES  
THIS MORNING BEFORE EXITING. THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS  
CURRENTLY NEARING LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH EARLY  
TO MID AFTERNOON, WITH INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL AREA LIMITED BY  
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. A MORE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE IS  
LIFTING INTO IA AND MO EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL RIDE THROUGH  
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  
 
THE LIFTING FRONT AND SUBTLE VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS  
MORNING ARE TEAMING UP TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM OVER  
NORTHWEST OH AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT  
EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS OVER THE  
LAKE AND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY  
DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS EARLY ROUND. THERE IS  
QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD/DISAGREEMENT REGARDING NOT ONLY WHEN  
AND WHERE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, BUT ALSO INVOLVING HOW ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD IT IS.  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY START TO RE-DEVELOP EARLY  
TO MID-AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED AND AS  
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT  
HIGH, THOUGH WITH A HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE DO HAVE  
POPS RAMPING BACK UP INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH A  
LAKE BREEZE AND PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY CONVECTION  
TO OUR WEST (OVER IN/IL) AS POTENTIAL TRIGGERS. THE MORE  
CONFIDENT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING (AFTER 4 PM) AS GREATER FORCING  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE STARTS  
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS  
WILL ENCOURAGE MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO OUR  
WEST THIS AFTERNOON THAT SPREADS IN THIS EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL  
FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THAT. FOR  
THIS MAIN POTENTIAL ROUND OF LATE- DAY/EVENING CONVECTION, THE  
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW MUCH ACTIVITY OCCURS DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF IT...WHICH COULD WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE AND  
LEAD TO A DRIER TREND IN THIS EVENING'S FORECAST. ANOTHER ROUND  
OF CONVECTION IS STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY HI-RES MODELS OVERNIGHT  
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS  
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH, ESPECIALLY FROM OVER LAKE ERIE INTO  
NEARBY NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PA.  
 
THE FORECAST HAS "LIKELY" (60-70% POP) WORDING AT SOME POINT  
THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WITH  
SOME 80% "CATEGORICAL" WORDING OFF OF LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT,  
WITH SOME ATTEMPTS AT TIMING THE VARIOUS POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF  
CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE. IT WILL NOT RAIN ALL DAY OR NIGHT BY  
ANY STRETCH, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE IT AT SOME POINT.  
 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1.80-2.00" RANGE TODAY,  
WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 2.00-2.25"+ TONIGHT  
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH SKINNY INSTABILITY  
PROFILES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS, CONVECTIVE CORES WILL BE  
ACCOMPANIED BY IMPRESSIVE/TORRENTIAL RAIN RATES TODAY AND  
TONIGHT. ANY LOCALIZED TRAINING/REPEATED STORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER  
URBAN OR OTHERWISE PRONE LOCATIONS, COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED  
FLASH FLOODING. MAY NEED TO PAY ESPECIALLY CLOSE ATTENTION  
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH SIGNS OF A MOISTURE RICH LOW-  
LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO ANY CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING  
COLD FRONT, AND WITH HINTS THAT THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY  
PROVIDE A FOCUS INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA. ADDED  
HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ASSUMING WE SEE  
A WINDOW OF HEATING LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,  
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH STEEP LOW-  
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST TO MODERATE DCAPE OF 700-1000 J/KG.  
POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE A LIMITING FACTOR. SLIGHTLY  
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 25-30KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER  
SHEAR, WHICH SUPPORTS SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...  
ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE  
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. THE  
SPC AND WPC MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND  
HEAVY RAIN. A LOCALLY MORE ORGANIZED THREAT MAY PLAY OUT LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH  
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR EARLIER CONVECTION TO WORK THINGS OVER. A  
LOCALLY MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH  
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY INTO COUNTIES NEAR AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE  
FROM NORTHERN OH INTO PA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS AGAIN LOW.  
 
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME GUIDANCE  
TOUCHING 90 ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA (MAINLY INTERIOR OHIO).  
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S FOR MOST, WITH  
LOW POTENTIAL (<30%) FOR ISOLATED PEAK VALUES NEAR 100. GIVEN  
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND CLOUDS, HELD OFF  
ON HEAT HEADLINES. HOWEVER, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS OR WITHOUT  
AC WILL NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR THE HEAT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL  
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD, UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED FROM NEAR TOLEDO AND  
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO START SUNDAY, AND WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND A  
FEW STORMS ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT TO START THE DAY, ESPECIALLY  
OVER LAKE ERIE AND INTO NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA. ACTIVITY WILL  
PUSH INLAND AND BEGIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION  
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVERYONE HAS  
POTENTIAL TO SEE A SHOWER OR STORM ON SUNDAY, THOUGH THE HIGHEST  
CONFIDENCE IS FROM A WYANDOT TO TRUMBULL COUNTY LINE POINTS  
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, WHERE COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED  
TO PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM  
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEHIND  
THE FRONT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT,  
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT  
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH  
FLOODING ON SUNDAY, WITH MODEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IF ANY STRONGER  
CELLS CAN PRODUCE A WET MICROBURST OR TWO.  
 
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90, THOUGH  
WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE DEW POINTS TRYING TO WORK IN FROM  
THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL  
AGAIN PUSH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN OH (STAYING <90F IN MUCH  
OF NORTHWEST PA), BELOW CRITERIA BUT STILL HOT ENOUGH TO IMPACT  
THOSE WITH SENSITIVITY TO HEAT, OUTDOOR PLANS, AND/OR NO AC.  
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S, WITH  
SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN TYPICAL LOWER-LYING/RURAL AREAS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
A HOT START TO THE WORK-WEEK IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, AS SUNDAY'S  
COLD FRONT DISSIPATES AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF HOT, HUMID  
AIR FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WON'T LAST TOO LONG, WITH A  
COLD FRONT CROSSING ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY  
SETTLE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE STRONGER  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
HAVE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY GIVEN NO  
NEARBY FRONTS AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO  
WATCH FOR A SHORTWAVE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE  
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A ROUND OF CONVECTION.  
LOW CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH. THE FORECAST NOW INTRODUCES A LOW CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT  
STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND A SHORTWAVE RIDES BY. CONFIDENCE IN  
THE DRIER FORECAST INCREASES TO END THE WEEK.  
 
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY,  
BEFORE WE TREND TOWARDS NORMAL AND EVEN BELOW IT DURING THE  
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY MAY GET CLOSE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SOME MORNING CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OVER THE  
NEXT FEW HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF  
THE MID DAY HOURS. SOME SPOTTY SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE IN  
THE 17-22Z TIME FRAME, COVERED BY VCSH IN THE TAF FOR LOCATIONS  
AFFECTED. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT GETS TSRA BACK INTO THE FOLD  
IN THE FORM OF 2 HOUR TEMPO GROUPS AFTER 22Z TODAY FOR  
TERMINALS WEST AND LATER FURTHER EAST. THIS FORCING FEATURE IS  
PROVING THE BEST WAY TO TRY AND TIME THE LATER, MORE ORGANIZED  
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA.  
NON-VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING, WINDS  
WILL BE SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS TODAY AND WAVE HEIGHTS LESS THAN A FOOT  
BEFORE TURNING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 10-15KTS BY  
SUNDAY MORNING, AND WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 1-2FT CLEVELAND  
EASTWARD. BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS FOR MONDAY THROUGH  
EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY TURNING  
WINDS ONSHORE AROUND 10KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 15KTS  
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE  
ACCORDINGLY, LIKELY TO THE 2-3FT RANGE.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...SULLIVAN  
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN  
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN  
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN  
AVIATION...26  
MARINE...26  
 
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