962
FXUS61 KCLE 131620
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1220 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
..18Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
WEAK TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
PRIMARILY DRY COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
THOUGH CLOUD COVER AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE AREA, LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE WEAK
FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, COULD SEE A MORE
EXPANSIVE AREA OF DENSE FOG DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE
I-71 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE A
PRIMARILY DRY COLD FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING MUCH-NEEDED WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE REGION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
SOME RAIN SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A MODEST
SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET OF AROUND 35 KNOTS ENTERS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY WHERE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD OCCUR,
THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
FRONT.
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID-70S AND PERHAPS
EVEN THE UPPER 70S IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO NEAR RECORD-HIGHS AT THIS TIME
WHICH CURRENTLY SIT IN THE LOW TO MID-80S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF UPDATE. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LIGHT FOG AGAIN AGAIN AT TOL, FDY, AND MFD WITH TEMPO
GROUPS FOR 3SM TO 5SM BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...LOW POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG IN NORTHWEST OHIO ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST
COAST WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE
TODAY. OVERALL, THE AGGREGATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
FROM THESE SYSTEMS HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND WINDS WILL ULTIMATELY
SETTLE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. FOR TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE AND SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND ALLOW
FOR THEM TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WAVES TO BUILD TO ABOUT 4 FT OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FULLY ENTER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEAKEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE. SOME 2 TO 3 FT
WAVES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH 10 TO 15 KTS OF NORTHERLY FLOW
IN THE CENTRAL BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE LAKE ON
THURSDAY AND REDUCE FLOW TO 10 KTS OR LESS, AS FLOW BACKS TO THE
EAST THEN SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR
FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
LAKE. FLOW MAY INCREASE LATER ON FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING THE BASIN.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...77
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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