977
FXUS61 KCLE 302329
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.
2) EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK INCREASES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH PEAK
IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY. MAX HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW
100S.
3) PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY, SHOULD QUICKLY
SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
DISSIPATES.
A LOW-LEVEL JET OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL FUEL CONTINUES
MOISTURE ADVECTION, WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAM, SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE STEADIER STREAM OF MODERATE RAIN
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. THE LATEST 12Z HREF HAS ABOUT A 20-30% OF >1" OF
RAIN, MAINLY IN ERIE, PA. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THERE
BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH QPF FOR SOME MINOR, NUISANCE FLOODING.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AS THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA),
MOVES THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST FAVORS CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
ADVECTION OF A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
STARTING MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN MAJOR
HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. WHILE HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN
THE LOW 90S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HUMIDITY WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEK WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO BUILDING INSTABILITY TO THE REGION, THOUGH WEAK FORCING WITH
A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. IF STORMS
DEVELOP, MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE WOULD FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER, HENCE A BROAD DAY 3
SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR TUESDAY, DESPITE THE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR BEFORE WE
GET SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOP ON THURSDAY
AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR A TIMED BATCH OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER
06Z TONIGHT WHERE TEMPO 5SM IS POSSIBLE. BUT THE MAIN THEME WILL
BE CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD, AND BECAUSE OF THE LOW END CHANCES, IT MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO POPULATE THIS THREAT IN THE TAF ITSELF WITH ANY
SORT OF TIMING OR CONFIDENCE. BEST TO SAY THESE ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE, BUT ANY FLIGHT CATEGORY IMPACT IS EITHER
NOT EXPECTED OR WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED. MAIN CEILINGS WILL BE
AROUND FL100, AND EXPECT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH THAT MONDAY
DURING HEATING. WINDS STAY UNDER 12KTS FOR THE MOST PART AT THE
SURFACE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR NEOH AND NWPA. NON-VFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
MARINE WEATHER WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY STORMY
AT TIMES DURING THIS WEEK. THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY WILL BE STAY ALERT ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND TIMING
OF ANY STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
LAKE TODAY AND WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
THIS WEEK WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF
POSSIBLE STORMS TO LOOK OUT FOR ON THE LAKE THIS WEEK, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND
WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET. THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WINDS WILL FAVOR THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS THIS WEEK AS WELL AS THE OPEN WATERS.
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION, GUST FRONTS, AND OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS
MAY CAUSE RAPID CHANGES IN MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK ON THE LAKE AT THIS TIME.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...26
MARINE...77
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