155
FXUS61 KCLE 011918
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
318 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE RAINFALL FORECAST HAS TRENDED HIGHER FOR PORTIONS OF NE OH/NW PA
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AND THE RESULTING GREATEST FLOODING RISK IS STILL
RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS POINT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH
SOME FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.
2) PERIODIC SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE START OF THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT, ALTHOUGH RAINFALL RATES
WILL LIKELY PICK UP AS BETTER MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
MOST SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75 LIKELY
RECEIVING UP TO 0.75" OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FOR
TRAINING AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ALONG THE FAR
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE LOCAL AREA, ALTHOUGH THAT HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AXIS MAY BE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE SWATHS OF HEAVIER RAIN OCCUR, BUT IN
GENERAL THIS INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN WILL LARGELY SERVE AS A
PRIMER FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION (OR AT LEAST, LOWER COVERAGE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY) IS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL OHIO. BY THE AFTERNOON, BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE WINDOW FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND LIKELY THE GREATEST FLASH FLOODING RISK.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE 0.5 TO 0.75" OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING 2 OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST
RAIN AMOUNTS COULD FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OH/NW PA WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FLASH FLOODING RISK, BUT WILL NEED
TO SEE HOW HIGH RES MODELS TREND OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. HAVE
OPTED AGAINST ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE SINCE
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL/GREATEST
TRAINING POTENTIAL IS STILL MEDIUM AT BEST. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS TONIGHT BEFORE MAKING A FINAL
DECISION ON ANY HEADLINES. ON SUNDAY, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. JET SUPPORT
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MEANDERS EASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY, RESULTING IN INCREASED SHEAR. THERE'S STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH WE DESTABILIZE GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE MANAGE TO
CLEAR OUT BETWEEN ROUNDS OF RAIN THEN INSTABILITY WILL BE
HIGHER, BUT ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS COULD RESULT IN LOWER
INSTABILITY AND A LOWER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. BASED ON THE
SHEAR PROFILE/WIND FIELD, ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESULT CONTINUED
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA BRINGS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA,
AND THE CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST WAS THE TIMING AT EACH
TERMINAL. TRIED TO LIMIT THE TSRA AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE IN THE END
AND KEEPING RESTRICTIONS WITHIN MVFR, BUT A STRONGER CLUSTER OF
STORMS MAY REQUIRE /AMD TO IFR VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER FROM MVFR AND LIKELY TO IFR IN PLACES BY DAWN SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR NON-VFR CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 10KTS TONIGHT,
INCREASING TO 15-20KTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5FT SUNDAY NIGHT, DECREASING
TO 1-3FT AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS TURN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS LESS THAN A FOOT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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