275
FXUS61 KCLE 171757
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
157 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FARTHER SOUTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN
HIGHS MAY APPROACH DAILY RECORDS AT A FEW SITES.
2) MAINLY DRY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL BOTH
TODAY AND MONDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
STORM POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
3) DRIER AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER SPREADS IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS THAT FAR OUT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1:
BROAD AND PROLONGED DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY,
SUPPORTING WELL ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. TODAY WILL BE THE FIRST
NOTABLY WARM DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TODAY TO ALLOW FOR A MORE UNIFORM
WARM DAY THAN ON SATURDAY. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OVERALL, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.
TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY AS WARM AS MONDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
COOL JUST A TOUCH, WHICH ALONG WITH LIKELY SOME MORE CLOUDS AND
GREATER AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL KEEPS THE FORECAST A BIT
COOLER THAN MONDAY...STILL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S
CLOSER TO THE LAKE AND IN THE MORE URBAN CLEVELAND METRO...LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND STAY
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE LAKE, ESPECIALLY IN AND
AROUND THE CLEVELAND AREA. EVEN WITH THE COOLER LAKE, WE TYPICALLY
SEE THE MILDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TERRAIN CLOSER TO THE
LAKE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. DEW POINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY AND MONDAY, WHICH WON'T BE
ENOUGH TO ADD MUCH IF ANY "HEAT INDEX". DEW POINTS CREEP UP A BIT
MORE INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY, SO IT WILL FEEL MORE HUMID.
THOSE WHO WORK OUTSIDE OR DON'T HAVE ADEQUATE COOLING WILL WANT TO BE
READY FOR THE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE WELL SHY OF OUR 100 DEGREE ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
EARLY SEASON HEAT CAN HAVE GREATER IMPACTS. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY
THE NWS HEAT RISK PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTING THE AREA IN MODERATE TO
BORDERLINE MAJOR RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE #2:
WE ARE STARTING DRY TODAY. A WEAKENING VORT MAX IS TRACKING TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
SHEARING OUT AND DRIFTING EAST AS HEIGHTS RISE. STILL, DAYTIME
HEATING WILL YIELD MODERATE AND UNCAPPED INSTABILITY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS THE VORT MAX CONTINUES TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH THIS MORNING AS HAS BEEN SEEN ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO, AND
FROM NEAR THE WESTERN LAKESHORE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS CONVECTION OCCURRING
IS NOT HIGH WITH MINIMAL FORCING IN THE FACE OF RISING HEIGHTS, WITH
THE FORECAST GENERALLY MAINTAINING A 20-30% MENTION ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA FOR IT. IF WE DO SEE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOP TODAY IT WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MAINLY DRY DAY, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS
CONVECTION WILL FIRE TO OUR WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY PUSH IN
BEFORE WEAKENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY ADD ENOUGH LIFT TO ASSIST IN
CARRYING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN OH AND INTO WESTERN PA WHERE A POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND GREATER INSTABILITY IS HINTED AT ON SEVERAL MODELS, BUT
CONFIDENCE HERE IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW (<20%) FOR A FORECAST MENTION.
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, DRIVEN BY
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL. THIS RISK IS
SUPPORTED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WELL-MIXED LOW LEVELS
SUPPORTING DOWNBURSTS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND JUST ENOUGH FLOW
FARTHER WEST FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS.
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH A SHORTWAVE
PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH THE FORECAST HANGS ONTO A LOW CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OUT OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
TUESDAY EVENING AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. FORCING WILL NOT BE TREMENDOUSLY STRONG AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES, BUT WILL BE GREATER THAN PRIOR DAYS THANKS TO THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT IN UNCAPPED AND MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA DUE
TO STRONG HEATING OF A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS, WITH MODESTLY STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT FOSTERING UP TO 30KT OF EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
GENERALLY EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD IN LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
FARTHER EAST DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS, THOUGH FORCING THAT FAR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET, THOUGH MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
THROUGH. THE SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA, WEST OF
APPROXIMATELY AN ASHTABULA TO MANSFIELD LINE, IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FARTHER SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 1.50", ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-MAY. THIS COULD SUPPORT
LOCALIZED TRAINING CONVECTION WITH A HEAVY RAIN RISK TOO.
KEY MESSAGE #3:
SHOWER POTENTIAL EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT EXITS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
LATER WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS LOCALLY. A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN LIKELY RETURNS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK OR WEEKEND AS A SUBTLE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S., WITH RIDGING ALOFT FOCUSED OFF THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE DISAGREES CONSIDERABLY ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ANY
SYSTEMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE MORE ACTIVE FLOW LOCALLY, WITH SOME
GUIDANCE ALSO TAKING LONGER TO DISPLACE THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE AS WELL AND KEEPING US DRIER. OVERALL, AFTER BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE FORECAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH WILL NEED REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
BRIEF PERIODS OF BROKEN LOW-END VFR AND POSSIBLY HIGH-END MVFR
CEILINGS IN DIURNAL CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT ROUGHLY 6 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
VARIABLE WINDS LIKELY AT KERI DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AND LIGHT AT EASTERN TERMINALS WITH WINDS REMAINING SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED AT KTOL/KFDY. A LLJ WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND A PERIOD OF LLWS IS LIKELY AT KTOL/KFDY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT WESTERN
TERMINALS LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
WESTERN TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. NON-
VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE
WESTERN BASIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS DURING PEAK DIURNAL MIXING. AT THIS POINT, IT
APPEARS THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND THE HIGHER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED INTO THE OPEN
WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT, HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS (POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KNOTS) IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
THURSDAY. WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LIMITS LATER THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME CHOPPINESS IS LIKELY WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL APPROACH RECORD
VALUES. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORDS FOR MAY 18 AND 19 AT LOCAL
CLIMATE SITES.
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
05-18 95(1962) 92(1962) 91(1962) 92(1962) 92(1962) 89(1889)
05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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