004
FXUS61 KCLE 161149
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
749 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
2) COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL PRE-
FRONTAL ACTIVITY EXITING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING,
WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING, THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS
ACROSS OUR AREA APPEARS LOW. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT/SECONDARY
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND COLDER AIR ACROSS
THE REGION, CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING AS LOW
AS -6 TO -7 DEGREES C BY SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKES HURON AND
ERIE, ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BETWEEN THE
I-71/I-77 CORRIDORS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE 25 TO 30
MPH RANGE, THOUGH WILL BE MOST GUSTY (UP TO 40 MPH) WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING, AND WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN EFFICIENT RADIATIVE
COOLING, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 30S OR EVEN UPPER
20S IN SOME SPOTS. AT THE MINIMUM, A WIDESPREAD FROST IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
FROST CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER, THOUGH LOWS
MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE MODERATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED TAF PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS
AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING, AS OF
12Z IT HAS JUST CLEARED CLE-MFD AND IS APPROACHING ERI-YNG-CAK.
A BROKEN LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS (BUT VERY
LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING THUS FAR) WITH SOME 30-35KT WIND GUSTS IS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY
IN AN MVFR RANGE...WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH
THE DAY, THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS. RAIN BRIEFLY
STOPS BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD BATCH OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO FILL IN 13-17Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 20-0Z THIS
EVENING. SOME MORE MODERATE SHOWERS CAN ACCOMPANY THIS SECONDARY
FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN AT MOST SITES AS MVFR
CEILINGS PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS ALIGNING OVER
LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF CLE. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB
AND SCATTER OUT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN,
THOUGH THIS PROCESS WILL BE SLOWEST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE.
WINDS ARE SHIFTING WEST AT 10-15KT WITH 25-30KT GUSTS WITH THE
FIRST FRONT, AND THEN WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15KT
TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE STRONGER (15-20KT WITH 30KT GUSTS) CLOSER
TO LAKE ERIE, ESPECIALLY IMPACTING CLE AND ERI.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT USHERS IN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25
TO 30 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY BEHIND A
SECONDARY TROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS NORTH WINDS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST, 10 TO 15
KNOTS, BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE WEATHER PATTERN.
WATER LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR THE CRITICAL MARK OF 5 INCHES
ABOVE LOW WATER DATUM ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN EARLY THIS
MORNING, THOUGH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RISE LATER THIS
MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ142-143-
149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ144>148.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...KAHN
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