664
FXUS61 KCLE 192013
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
313 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON THURSDAY, THEN CONTINUING TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A RARE CLOUDLESS SKY (ASIDE FROM A FEW STRAY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS)
WILL ENSUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE COUPLED WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT BRIEFLY
BRINGING BACK CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MADE POSSIBLE BY SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD AIRMASS BUT WILL BE LIGHT/SCATTERED IN NATURE
DUE TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS, SHORT FETCH AND MINIMAL TO NO LAKE HURON
CONNECTION. COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
STEADILY DECREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
THE COOLING TEMPERATURE TREND FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE NEAR TERM PERIOD. DEVELOPING CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL
KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM DECREASING TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH
TONIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20. CLOUD
COVER EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING MUCH
TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY OVER THE AREA, RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW TEENS WITH SOME AREAS MAYBE EVEN
TOUCHING THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM BEGINS FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS DOMINANT HIGH WILL BE
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLOW WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL START THE
PERIOD IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FRIDAY AND THEN RECOVER INTO THE 40S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TO GET INTERESTING WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH
MODELS MOVE THE LOW NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW INTO NRN OH BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS TRACK IS
FURTHER WEST ACROSS CHICAGO. EITHER WAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT,
AT THIS POINT, FAVOR RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ALTHOUGH THIS OBVIOUSLY WITH BE DETERMINED BY
THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SHIFT ON SUBSEQUENT RUNS. FOR
NOW WILL ALSO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THE RAIN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES GLFMX
MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC
LIFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR
WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW TURNING ANY LINGERING
PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. TUESDAY THE GFS SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE THE ECMWF WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THE SYSTEM FURTHER TO OUR
NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR A MIX OF RAIN OR
SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN MID WEEK THAT COULD BRING MORE
SNOW THAN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER 40S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SOME RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS PROVIDING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AT KERI RIGHT NOW, WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW, PRODUCING MORE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM LAKE
ERIE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING
EXCEPT AT KTOL AND KFDY WHERE ONLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED. VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY BE AROUND KERI AS
WELL. NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK
NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL
RAIN ON MONDAY.
MARINE
WILL DROP THE HEADLINES AS EXPECTED AS WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH.
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE LAKE. ON BALANCE, WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OR SO FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DROP SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ON THE WATER. THIS MAY REQUIRE
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE AS WAVES INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET. IF
WINDS END UP BEING MORE SSW HOWEVER, HIGHER WAVES WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SUNDAY, WINDS BACK 20 TO 30 DEGREES AND
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW 4 FEET
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. MONDAY LOOK FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...TK
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