832
FXUS61 KCLE 291728
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
128 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
UPPER TROUGHING GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN TYPICAL LOCATIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING A RETURN TO INCREASED HUMIDITY AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER RAMPS
UP SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH DRY
EAST WINDS FIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM EASTERN OH INTO
PA THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF SATURDAY. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING THE FINER
DETAILS THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EVENTUAL TIMING, COVERAGE, AND
AMOUNT OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL MAXIMIZE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS THEN FAVORED FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A
MULTI-DAY WASHOUT THIS WEEKEND, MORE LIKE A 1-2 DAY PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES BUT ALSO INTERMITTENT DRIER
PERIODS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.75-2.00" LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SO EFFICIENT RAIN-RATES AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BECOME CONCERNS. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL SETUP APPEARS
UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE PRESSING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO A
GENERAL DRYING TREND FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING IF ENOUGH WARMTH/HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST
FOR LOWER CHANCES OF POP-UP SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY OR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. A SOMEWHAT
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THIS TAF
UPDATE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 3500 TO 5000 FEET
WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH
AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FROM THE NORTH 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS OF 4-7
FEET WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT IN ADDITION TO THE
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. SWIMMING IS DISCOURAGED! HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON THURSDAY, WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AND WAVES 1
TO 3 FEET. BY FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND WAVES 1 TO 2 FEET. WINDS TURN EASTERLY BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ009>012-
089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ149.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page