709
FXUS61 KCLE 112358
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
758 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED A BIT FOR SATURDAY, BUT OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER EACH DAY.
2) WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION FOR SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MAY PREVENT DESTABILIZATION THAT
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER STORMS. AS OF NOW, THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IF
SHOWER/CLOUD COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING LOWER THAN EXPECTED IN
EASTERN ZONES DURING PEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
DEFINITELY BE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER, MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY, AND THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. SPC HAS
PLACED LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF I-75 IN A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR MONDAY, HOWEVER
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND MAYBE HEAVY RAINFALL.
THAT SAID, IT'S STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF STORMS AND ANY ASSOCIATED HAZARDS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRACK
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A FEW HOUR
LONG PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME THUNDER TO MOST TAF
SITES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT MFD, CAK, AND YNG AND LOWEST AT
TOL. THUNDER POTENTIAL IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS AT CAK
AND YNG, LOWER ELSEWHERE (SO NO INCLUSION) BUT NOT ZERO EITHER.
THE BATCH OF SHOWERS CAN BE ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONAL VSBY AND
CIG RESTRICTIONS MAINLY TO MVFR, WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY POSSIBLE
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDER. THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST INTO SATURDAY EVENING. JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAFS,
A PERIOD OF MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT SOME FOG
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, TO BE ADDRESSED IN FUTURE CYCLES.
LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT UNDER 10KT THIS EVENING SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NON-VFR AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FLOW WILL THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS IN THE OPEN WATERS POTENTIALLY
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY
EVENING WITH WINDS LIKELY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR A
PERIOD LATE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. BASED ON
CURRENT WIND/WAVE FORECAST, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING. OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THOUGH WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS MAY BECOME MORE
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...15
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