748
FXUS61 KCLE 301129
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT.
PATCHY FROST ELSEWHERE IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER CLOUDS COVER SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND POSE A RISK OF FROST
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHTS. A WARM UP IS ON THE WAY
FOR NEXT WEEK.
2) MULTIPLE CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
DROP INTO THE -3 TO -5C RANGE, RESULTING IN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE BIGGER CONCERN
IS THE VERY COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES
COULD POSE A RISK TO VEGETATION THAT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO GROW DUE
TO THE EARLY SPRING WARM UP. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
MULTIPLE DAYS OF POTENTIAL FROST RISK IS THE TIMING OF CLOUD
COVERAGE AND HOW MUCH THAT INHIBITS TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. OPTED
TO ADD FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. FOR TONIGHT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND NWPA WHERE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD LEND TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE IN
OHIO, CLOUD COVERAGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD WORK
TO INHIBIT THAT FROST POTENTIAL, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS TODAY TO DETERMINE ANY NEED FOR EXTENSION FURTHER WEST.
PEOPLE SHOULD TAKEN PROACTIVE MEASUREMENTS TO PROTECT ANY VULNERABLE
VEGETATION TO THESE COLD TEMPERATURES THE NEXT THREE NIGHTS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THESE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND. BY SUNDAY, A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY, WAA REGIME TO DEVELOP
AND THE WARMER AIR TO RETURN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THIS MORNING, AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST,
RESULTING IN AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 3SM. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD DEPART TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES EAST ALONG THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
PROVIDES ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL MESOSCALE SUPPORT WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL WITH THESE SHOWERS, SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL
OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF US30, THOUGH THERE ARE
NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA
PUSHES EAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
UNTIL ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH NEXT WEEK REINTRODUCING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FROM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST PROVIDING ENERGY TO ENHANCE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOWS AND SUPPORT MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
GIVEN THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES, EXPECTING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRESENT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE AND HOW
MUCH DIVERSION THERE IS AMONGST MODELS, ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS, THOUGH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
ALSO RESULTING IN LOWER VSBYS AT ERI. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BRIEFLY ENTERS THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA
OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, BRINGING MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING,
8 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTHWEST DIRECTION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY, INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
MARINE
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY, WITH WEAK WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY,
BECOMING 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
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