311
FXUS61 KILN 080942
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
542 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SLOWING
PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OUR PRIMARY WEATHER DRIVER
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS ALLOWS RETURN FLOW TO
PERCOLATE THROUGH THE REGION AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TO MOVE OVER THE
CWA. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN AN INFLUX OF HIGHER TEMPERATURES
A DEW POINTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN
RISE INTO THE 90S, WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE HOTTER OF THE TWO DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES, PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED, BUT SOME
INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP, WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE BEING
REALIZED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST BULK SHEAR REMAINS OFF
TO OUR NORTH, POSSIBLY TICKLING AREAS NORTH OF I-71. SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS,
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA, WHERE DEEPER SHEAR MAY AID IN STORM
ORGANIZATION.
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN, IT LOOKS TO TAKE ON A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTATION AND BE VERY SLOW TO PROGRESS. PWATS ALONG THE
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 200% OF NORMAL. AS ANY ROBUST CAPE
GETS PINCHED OFF AND A A SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT LLJ RAMPS UP, THE
THREAT FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS (TRAINING) INCREASES. THIS
INTRODUCES A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT WILL STILL BE LAID OUT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, NEARLY STALLED OUT. THIS CONTINUES THE CHANCES FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
REDEVELOPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL FORCING. THIS WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
AND TRAINING CELLS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, ALONG WITH THE
FRONT, ON THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DIURNAL VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPS AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS, THEN RETURN TO SOUTHERLY AROUND SUNSET. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AIENA/35
AVIATION...AIENA
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