261  
FXUS61 KILN 291755  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
155 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH  
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO TAPER OFF. MORE ISOLATED SHOWER  
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT  
TIMES. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH  
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH TODAY WITH  
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE THERE IS LESS RAIN AND THE CLOUDS ARE  
NOT AS THICK. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE LITTLE  
DIURNAL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
A COOL RAW DAY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED RAIN AND  
CLOUDS ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN  
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. RAIN WILL START TO TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, LINGERING LONGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS  
OF OHIO.  
 
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS  
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S. DECIDED AGAINST ANY FROST  
MENTION SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
CONUS ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SOME  
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND  
OHIO VALLEY REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THE MID  
LEVEL ENERGY SO WHILE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TOUGH TO  
RULE OUT, WILL GENERALLY LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS SATURDAY  
INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL  
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS HEADING THROUGH EARLY TO MID  
NEXT WEEK ON HOW TO HANDLE A POTENTIAL CUTOFF LOW IN THE GULF COAST  
REGION. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE MAY TRANSITION OVER TO A  
MORE PROGRESSIVE, PSEUDO ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS  
FOR US AND A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
CONDITIONS WILL START OUT VFR AT KCMH AND KLCK. KILN, KLUK, AND  
KDAY START OUT MVFR, AND KCVG STARTS OUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH IFR  
CONDITIONS. RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND WILL INCREASE GOING  
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO  
DECREASE AND THEN REMAIN IN THE IFR TO LIFR CATEGORIES. KCVG WILL  
START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE LONGER  
TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LLWS AT THE END OF  
THE LONGER KCVG TAF. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...  
NEAR TERM...  
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...JGL  
AVIATION...  
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