116  
FXUS61 KILN 312339  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
739 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT,  
BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT  
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A  
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ATTM WILL DROP  
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR CVG BY 12Z MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL  
ALLOW SCATTERED CIRRUS TO DROP SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, BUT THE  
OVERALL CHARACTER OF THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR.  
 
TONIGHT WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS AIRMASS AS THE  
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S EAST OF COLUMBUS TO THE MID 40S IN WRN  
OH, DOWN THROUGH SE IN AND NRN KY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ON MONDAY, THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF INTO THE APPALACHIANS. SURFACE  
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES  
TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AS  
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE, BRINGING  
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE REGION.  
 
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF  
CONVECTION MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS TAKE A COMPLEX  
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, KEEPING IT NORTH OF THE FA. THE ECMWF  
AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS, BRING THE PCPN IN NORTHERN PORTIONS  
OF THE REGION. WILL MOVE PREVIOUS PCPN FORECAST NORTH A LITTLE,  
ONLY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS INTO THE FAR NE PORTIONS  
OF CENTRAL OHIO.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
BY TUESDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST  
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST. THIS PROMOTES BREEZY  
WARM/MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES  
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH MUCH OF  
THE AREA IN THE MID 80S. A FEW OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH  
90. PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE  
IN THE 500 MB NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. COULD  
SEE A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BUT  
OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT, ATTENTION SHIFTS TO A  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WITH ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY MOVING  
INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL (MID TO UPPER 60S) TUESDAY NIGHT  
AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INHIBIT DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING, THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A STRONG LIKELIHOOD  
OF ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH FAVORS  
ADDITIONAL HEATING WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER  
90S. DUE TO SOME SLOWING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION, CONFIDENCE IS  
INCREASING FOR THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH MUCH OF THE DAY BEING  
DRY. FOR THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, CAM GUIDANCE IS STILL A DAY  
AWAY, BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE NEW DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS  
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS  
IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE POTENTIAL  
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS A LATER ARRIVAL OF STORM  
DEVELOPMENT MEANS LESS TIME IN THE DIURNALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT  
ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. RECENT CIPS ANALOGS HAVE TRENDED  
LOWER WITH SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,  
HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LARGE CAPE PROFILES (2000-3000  
J/KG) AND SUFFICIENT DCAPE (>1000 J/KG) FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. MODEST WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDES EFFECTIVE  
BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS SUGGESTING ORGANIZED STORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW ONGOING ACTIVITY  
EVOLVES OVERNIGHT, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT IT WOULD DISSIPATE.  
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SUSTAINS ADVECTION OF HIGH  
THETA-E FROM THE WEST, FUELING ANY ONGOING STORM ELEMENTS. THIS  
POINTS TO A SEVERE THREAT IN THE EVENING THAT TRANSITIONS INTO A  
POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAM GUIDANCE  
SHOULD PAINT A CLEARER PICTURE ON THE THREATS OVER THE NEXT COMING  
DAYS WHILE DETAILS ON THE LOCATIONS AFFECTED AND TIMING MAY STILL  
VARY.  
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO NOT FADE THURSDAY AS YET ANOTHER  
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE  
FRONT NOW WASHED OUT, MODEST INSTABILITY (1000-2000 J/KG) STILL  
EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE SEVERE CHANCES ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER, FLOODING CONCERNS WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH  
THE DAY ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE  
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN MAY HAVE OCCURRED. TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR  
THURSDAY IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS CLOUD DEBRIS AND NEW  
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INHIBITS HEATING. AS A RESULT, KEPT  
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, HOWEVER, SOME LOCATIONS  
MAY BE LIMITED TO THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS.  
 
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN GIVEN CURRENT  
SYNOPTIC SET UP AND WEAK OVERALL FLOW. THE CUT-OFF LOW THAT WAS  
PARKED SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA REENTERS THE JET STREAM ON FRIDAY PUSHING  
IN TO THE ROCKIES. A RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE CENTRAL US WITH A TROUGH  
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DRY OUT MUCH OF  
THE AREA THROUGH A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY, BUT  
DECIDED TO KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE ON THIS  
OCCURRING INCREASES. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO  
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SOME HIGH  
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS  
AT KLUK WHERE DESPITE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS  
COME AROUND TO A MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION OFF THE RIVER. ANY  
FOG WOULD BE RATHER SHALLOW AND JUST KEPT A TEMPO MVFR  
VISIBILITY IN THE TAF.  
 
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES  
NEAR TERM...SITES  
SHORT TERM...SITES  
LONG TERM...MCGINNIS  
AVIATION...  
 
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