316
FXUS61 KILN 041624
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1224 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PIVOT NORTH WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-70. LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EVENING STORMS.
2) THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PIVOT NORTH WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING MAINLY
NORTH OF I-70. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY 8H JET OF 45-50KT JET ADVECTING THE FAVORABLE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
INCREASES THE FORCING APPEARS TO BE RATHER DIFFUSE AND WEAK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES GIVEN THE WEAK
FORCING. SBCAPE VALUE ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTN.
GIVEN INSTABILITY AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT - CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CWA
ON TUESDAY, GRADUALLY MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NORTHEAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE A PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF > 1" OF
RAIN RAMP UP TO 80 PERCENT OR MORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO, WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF 2" OR MORE OF
RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MOST SOLUTIONS
PRODUCE A 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL, WITH A TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
STREAM FLOODING, THOUGH WITH THE SEASONAL TRANSITION INTO EARLY MAY,
1-2" RAINFALL OVER 24 HOURS MAY NOT POSE AN ISSUE.
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY, INFLUENCE FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS (SHOWERS) IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY 8H
JET OF 45-50KT JET ADVECTING FAVORABLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES THE FORCING
APPEARS TO BE RATHER DIFFUSE AND WEAK. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING - SO CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS LOW. THERE MAY BE A PASSING SHOWER FROM
A VFR DECK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS THE MOISTURE SHIFTS
NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR AT
KDAY AND KILN. CONFIDENCE FURTHER EAST TOWARD COLUMBUS DURING THE
EVENING IS LOWER SO HAVE A PROB30 MENTION UNTIL 02Z.
VFR CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
POSSIBLE. HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, AND MAY
REMAIN GUSTY AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING. NON-CONVECTIVE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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