092
FXUS61 KILN 011043
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY. HEAT MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE EASING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A GRADUAL
COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN
ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
EXPANSIVE, ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (APPROACHING 2 SIGMA) MID LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT INDICES AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED
THE HEAT ADVISORY OUT THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WILL DIG INTO THE MARITIMES LATE IN
THE WEEK WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN TROUGHING MOST OF THE WAY
DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE HIGH TO CHANGE
ORIENTATION AND THEN RETROGRADE OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE WELL
ADVERTISED, THIS PROCESS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER. SO, FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP QUITE AS MUCH AS EARLIER FORECAST WHICH MAY
RESULT IN HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXTENDING EVEN ANOTHER DAY, AT
LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THE HEAT WAVE WILL EASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
WEST-EAST ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WHILE BETTER FORCING WILL BE
NORTH OF THE AREA, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE CONVECTION TO
BUILD FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THEN THERE WILL THE RISK OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SOMEWHAT BETTER SHEAR
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ON FRIDAY, THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND REASONABLE
SHEAR WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
STILL SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD. FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING AND THEN
DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT, THEN BACK AND FALL BACK TO 5 KT OR LESS.
SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SHALLOW FOG ARE LIKELY AT KLUK LATE.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35
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