467  
FXUS61 KILN 091354  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
954 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH  
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY  
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE  
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
WESTERN EDGE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.  
COVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER WESTERN KENTCKY ATTM IS FORECAST TO  
WEAKEN AS IT COMES EAST INTO THE RIDGE, LEAVING THE FORECAST  
DRY FOR TODAY.  
 
CONTINUED HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND  
90 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
 
 
ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MID LEVEL  
ENERGY TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT SAGS  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY OFF TO  
OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AND HIGH RES  
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA LATE  
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY OF  
THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SO WILL GENERALLY JUST BRING  
SOME LOWER END POPS INTO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS  
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT WE WILL SEE THEN  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AS WE START TO DESTABILIZE  
AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THE CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF  
DEVELOPMENT, WILL AT LEAST BRING SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEST  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE OF  
MID LEVEL ENERGY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO  
LOWER 90S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM  
TIME FRAME WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ONE IMPULSE WILL BE  
WORKING THROUGH AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY NIGHT. THERE  
IS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. CANNOT RULE OUT A  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL  
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.  
 
THIS TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS SEVERAL ADDITIONAL  
DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS IN THE  
WAY OF INSTABILITY LATER IN THE WEEK.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOW  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AREAS OF MAINLY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH MID  
MORNING. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH  
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME SCATTERED  
AFTERNOON CU POSSIBLE. ANY CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET  
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HEADING INTO TONIGHT. A WEAKENING  
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE  
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS  
MAY REACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE TAF  
PERIOD, BUT THE CHANCE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT  
OF THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.  
 
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JGL  
NEAR TERM...SITES  
SHORT TERM...JGL  
LONG TERM...NOVAK  
AVIATION...JGL  
 
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