379
FXUS61 KILN 172257
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
657 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL THEN BE IN THE FORECAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE,
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH SOME
WITH A FEW FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING, LEAVING JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOWS TONIGHT
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW OVER THE PLAINS AND TROF
ALONG THE EAST COAST. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
SHORT TERM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. A FEW LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT
AROUND 90 DEGREES. THESE READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FEW TO SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS WHICH DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 55 AND 60.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STARTING 12Z MONDAY, MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS PUSH LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND ARE NOT IN ANY
SYNC WITH EACH OTHER STARTING AT THIS TIME. TO ADD TO THIS, EVEN THE
RUN-TO-RUN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS IS INCONSISTENT
AT BEST. A LITTLE LOWER AT 850MB, SLIGHTLY CLOSER LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS BUT STILL LARGE VARIATIONS OF STRENGTH CAN BE FOUND THROUGH
00Z TUES. THE BROAD PICTURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY IS FOR SOUTHERLY
WINDS AS THE MEAN TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE TANKS FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
HIGHS NEAR 90 FRI AND SAT ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO THE 80S SUN AND
LOWER 80S BEYOND THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS 55-60 FRI NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR 60 SAT NIGHT, LOW 60S THROUGH MON NIGHT AND
BACK TO NEAR 60 TUES NIGHT. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST PATTERN IS
LOW AND THE NBM FORECAST TAKING IT'S BUILT-IN MIDDLE GROUND LOOKS TO
BE THE BETTER COURSE OF ACTION FOR NOW.
PRECIP FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH SUN AND THEN LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP
ONWARD - WITH INDICATIONS BEING LIGHT OVER THE CWA WHERE IT IS
PLACED. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY GOING FORWARD, A DRY FORECAST SHOULD
BE THE BETTER COURSE OF ACTION. THE FEW PERIODS OF 25-35% POPS MON
THROUGH TUES REMAINS OVERDONE GIVEN PAST AND CURRENT DRY SPELL. IMO
UNTIL A UNIFIED DECISION STARTS COMING ACROSS IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS BETTER. THAT BEING SAID, THE NBM
FORECAST IS NOT UNREASONABLE AND WHAT MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE PRESENT
SHOULD ALL COME OUT IN THE WASH.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME MVFR FOG (LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IFR) AT KLUK OVERNIGHT.
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW, WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ070-071-
077-078.
KY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ091>093.
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073-075-080.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR INZ074.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HATZOS
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