567
FXUS61 KILN 111817
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
217 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK, TRENDING MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A ROBUST, H5 TROUGH WILL CARVE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MIDWEST REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING TO GENERATE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE
RAIN MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS MOVES IN, BUT STORM COVERAGE APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT AS MUCAPE GENERALLY PEAKS AROUND 200 J/KG.
STILL MAINLY EXPECTING RAIN TOTALS AROUND 0.1" TO 0.25" TUESDAY
NIGHT, SO NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION AS WELL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE FRONT MAY LAG JUST
ENOUGH ON WEDNESDAY THAT SOME ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN OUR EAST, MAINLY AROUND SOUTH-CENTRAL OH. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY CONVECTION IN OUR CWA.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON TUESDAY INTO THE 70S FOR MOST, BUT WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLACED IN A WARMING TREND TO END THE WORK WEEK,
WITH A POTENT H5 RIDGE USHERING IN SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE MAY ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH 90
DEGREES IN OUR FAR SOUTH, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY.
WHILE TOO FAR OUT TO GET INTO THE DETAILS, IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED
THAT SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS WE
GET INTO A MORE TROPICAL-LIKE AIR MASS. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY, AIDING IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. GLOBAL
MODELS STILL DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND, BUT CAM GUIDANCE WILL OFFER MORE INSIGHT
AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS STILL MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL CU
WILL DISSOLVE THIS EVENING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TODAY PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NW, BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME VARIABILITY. VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST TONIGHT, WITH GRADUAL
VEERING TOWARDS THE SE IN THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SW BY THE
AFTERNOON, REMAINING BELOW 10 KTS WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLARK
AVIATION...CLARK
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