314  
FXUS61 KILN 241052  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
652 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TODAY AS MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE  
AREA. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SEVERAL  
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE  
UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY  
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
MODELS LIFT A SERIES OF EMBEDDED VORTICES UP ACROSS THE REGION  
TODAY AHEAD OF AN EJECTING S/W TROF. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES  
QUICKLY THIS EARLY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY, THEN UP  
INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY,  
ALTHOUGH MARGINAL, DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, SO WILL  
CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER. MODERATE TO EARLY RAIN  
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA, SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH  
UNTIL 00Z FOR AN AREA SOUTH OF A RIPLEY COUNTY INDIANA EAST TO  
SCIOTO COUNTY LINE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONGER  
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COINCIDES  
WITH THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK. WILL ADD THIS THREAT TO THE  
HWO. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, THE PCPN WILL SPREAD NORTH AS  
THE DAY PROGRESSES. KEPT THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS GOING  
ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY  
OF THE REGION, AND THE UPPER 60S FOR THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF  
CENTRAL OHIO.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED THIS EVENING AS THE  
REGION MOVES INTO AN AREA NVA. HOWEVER, AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES  
AND BROADSCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS OVER THE  
REGION, SO THE PCPN IS FORECAST BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TONIGHT, WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID  
60S.  
 
ON TUESDAY, A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF SWINGS OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT  
PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE TROF,  
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES  
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL  
REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER,  
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.  
 
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER  
TROF AND CDFNT MOVE INTO THE REGION. INCREASING WIND SHEAR MAY  
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS COVERED  
BY THE SPC SWODY2 SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE  
DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY  
RAINFALL. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS TODAY, BEFORE ISSUING A  
FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE BISECTING THE REGION AS WEDNESDAY  
BEGINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS  
DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL  
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO THE MID  
70S IN THE SOUTHEAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALSO BUILDS IN FOR MUCH  
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED  
WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND  
PERHAPS A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA.  
 
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN  
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE OHIO  
VALLEY, IT APPEARS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AND ONE OR MORE  
SHORTWAVES COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER,  
DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES IS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW, HAVE  
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SHOWERS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH, AFFECTING  
CMH/LCK AND DAY BY TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THIS PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN  
WILL OCCUR WITH CIGS AROUND 12-1500' THROUGH THE PERIOD,  
OCCASIONALLY RISING TO 2KFT LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. LOWER  
CIGS DROPPING TO IFR CATEGORY WILL PROBABLY OCCUR THROUGH EARLY  
MORNING TODAY AND THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 
AFTER SUNSET, PREVAILING RAIN WILL BREAK UP IN FAVOR OF  
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT  
PERIOD.  
 
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, PARTICULARLY AT KDAY WHERE THE  
DYNAMICS LINE UP BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z. HAVE SEEN TWO CG STRIKES  
IN THE CWA WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD.  
GIVEN SOME INSOLATION DURING THE DAY, A FEW MORE ISOLATED  
STRIKES COULD BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TODAY.  
CHARACTERIZING THIS AS THE EXPECTED WEATHER WOULD BE AN  
EXAGGERATION THOUGH, AND THUNDER REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE TAF  
FORECAST TODAY. WILL AMEND IF NOTED DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OR IF  
MOVEMENT OF A DISCRETE CELL LOOKS TO IMPACT A TAF SITE LATER  
TODAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE  
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ077>079-081-088.  
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.  
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ073>075-080.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/AR/SITES  
NEAR TERM...SITES  
SHORT TERM...SITES  
LONG TERM...BPP  
AVIATION...FRANKS  
 
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