584
FXUS61 KILN 240707
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
207 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
KEY MESSAGES
1)BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
2)NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IMPACTS THE AREA FOR MID
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WAS KEEPING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE TOP OF THE MOIST CLOUD LAYER COINCIDES WITH THE DGZ
WHICH IS HELPING TO SQUEEZE OUT SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. AS A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST. DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 BY BY SUNRISE. COLD
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATIONS OF WIND AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE TEEMS THIS MORNING AND IN THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
FOCUS ON AN IMPULSE THAT DROPS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS THURSDAY. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM AND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK BUT SHOW GOOD SPREAD AND THEREFORE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS. THIS SPREAD AFFECTS THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE PRECIPITATION AND VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES, AND THEREFORE
AFFECTS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS.
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST SOUTH BUT
IT'S ENSEMBLE SUITE YIELDS SOME CREDENCE TO A MORE NORTHERN
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW, WHILE
ITS AI SOLUTIONS LEANS TOWARD THE POTENTIAL OF 1-2 INCHES. GFS
ENSEMBLE ALSO YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. WPC
GUIDANCE YIELDS 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS LIGHT SNOW
IMPACT IN THE HWO AND WILL EXPAND THE AREA A LITTLE SOUTH DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING PCPN BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY, HAVE LIMITED THE WEATHER TO RAIN AND SNOW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS ON FREEZING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES WAS KEEPING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE TOP OF THE MOIST CLOUD LAYER COINCIDES WITH THE DGZ
WHICH IS HELPING TO SQUEEZE OUT SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. VFR CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES IN THE SNOW SHOWERS
PRIOR TO TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
AS A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DECREASE WITH JUST SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KTS LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING AS A SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE
GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z OVERNIGHT AS A PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.
AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND PIVOTS INTO THE AREA A PERIOD OF LLWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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