261
FXUS61 KILN 291755
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO TAPER OFF. MORE ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH TODAY WITH
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE THERE IS LESS RAIN AND THE CLOUDS ARE
NOT AS THICK. WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE LITTLE
DIURNAL CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A COOL RAW DAY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED RAIN AND
CLOUDS ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. RAIN WILL START TO TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, LINGERING LONGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF OHIO.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S. DECIDED AGAINST ANY FROST
MENTION SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SOME
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THE MID
LEVEL ENERGY SO WHILE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TOUGH TO
RULE OUT, WILL GENERALLY LIMIT POPS TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS HEADING THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK ON HOW TO HANDLE A POTENTIAL CUTOFF LOW IN THE GULF COAST
REGION. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE MAY TRANSITION OVER TO A
MORE PROGRESSIVE, PSEUDO ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR US AND A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL START OUT VFR AT KCMH AND KLCK. KILN, KLUK, AND
KDAY START OUT MVFR, AND KCVG STARTS OUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND WILL INCREASE GOING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AND THEN REMAIN IN THE IFR TO LIFR CATEGORIES. KCVG WILL
START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE LONGER
TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LLWS AT THE END OF
THE LONGER KCVG TAF. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...
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