286
FXUS61 KILN 052317
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
617 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, MAINLY DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT GETS SHUNTED OFF
TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE, WEAK SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
HELP SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE AWAY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE
ALONG WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS SAGS INTO OUR REGION. ANY
BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER, SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER RHS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL INTERSECT
WITH THE DGZ ZONE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A
MENTION OF FLURRIES. THIS COULD MIX WITH/TRANSITION INTO SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ENDING AS THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT, BUT
BY THIS TIME, THINK TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SW-NE ORIENTED SFC TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND CROSS EAST EARLY
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT. UNTIL IT DOES, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF
A WARM SURGE AHEAD OF IT WHERE RAIN WILL OVERCOME ANY EARLY START
WITH SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA. ALONG AND NEAR I-70 CORRIDOR
WILL BE A MIX, AND WEST CENTRAL OH SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SNOW. WHILE AN
EARLIER END TO SNOW IS FAVORED, KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND CUT THEM FROM NW-SE IN THE POST-FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE.
THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCE IS A WEAK ONE EARLY TUESDAY IN CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE UPPER LEVEL S/W ENERGY IN NRN MI AND AN
INFLUX OF MOIST AIR ON SLY WINDS OCCUR. MODELS HAVE A GOOD BIT OF
VARIANCE IN THIS TIME PERIOD AND I FEEL THAT THE HEDGE TOWARDS THE
WETTER ENSEMBLE SOLUTION IS IN ERROR.
A MORE VIABLE PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY BUT STILL SHOWS
A GOOD BIT OF VARIANCE IN PLACEMENT/TIMING, WHICH ISN'T ANY SURPRISE
THIS FAR OUT. KEPT NBM GUIDANCE HERE, WHICH STARTS AS RAIN, MIXES
WITH SNOW IN THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING, AND CONTINUES TO CHANGE
TO SNOW N-S OVERNIGHT. A BIT MORE DETAIL FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD,
BUT AT LEAST ANY FREEZING RAIN BEING SPIT OUT BY MODELS HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO SNOW.
AFTER A SLIGHT WARMING ON SUN INTO THE 30S/LOW 40S, TEMPERATURES
DROP BEHIND A COLD FRONT INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND LOWER 20S OVER KY AND FAR SRN OH.
MONDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS FROM LOW 20S NW TO LOW 30S SE, AND LOWS WILL
NOT HAVE AS LARGE OF A SPREAD - LOWER TEENS NORTHERN 1/2 OF CWA AND
UPPER TEENS SRN 1/2.
TUE AND WED SHOULD BRING MILDER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S
AND LOWS TUE NIGHT NEAR 30 DEGREES. FROPA WED WILL SEE LOWS DROP
BACK TO LOW-MID 20S AND TEENS AGAIN FROM THURS NIGHT. HIGHS FALL
BACK TO THE MID 20S-MID 30S THURS, 20S ON FRI.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR CIGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT FOR ALL AREA TAF SITES, BUT THE MVFR
CLOUD DECK REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE AS IT STALLS NEARBY. HAVE KEPT
FEW/SCT MENTIONS FOR MOST SITES AS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR THIS TO
RETROGRADE CLOSER DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT ROUND OF MVFR CIGS ARRIVING AFTER
12Z SATURDAY. CLOUDS LOWER BELOW <2000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND
THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS MAY BE OBSERVED.
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR THIS FORECAST, HOWEVER, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS BETWEEN 16-20Z SATURDAY. AFTER 00Z,
CIGS REMAIN MVFR BUT MAY INCREASE IN HEIGHT ABOVE 2000 FEET.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR QUITE LOW, BUT SOME FLURRIES AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY DURING THE 16-20Z
TIME FRAME.
LIGHT WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL/MCGINNIS
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