314
FXUS61 KILN 241052
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2018
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS WILL RETURN TODAY AS MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MODELS LIFT A SERIES OF EMBEDDED VORTICES UP ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF AN EJECTING S/W TROF. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
QUICKLY THIS EARLY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY, THEN UP
INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY,
ALTHOUGH MARGINAL, DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER. MODERATE TO EARLY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA, SO WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
UNTIL 00Z FOR AN AREA SOUTH OF A RIPLEY COUNTY INDIANA EAST TO
SCIOTO COUNTY LINE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONGER
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK. WILL ADD THIS THREAT TO THE
HWO. AS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, THE PCPN WILL SPREAD NORTH AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. KEPT THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS GOING
ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO LOWER 70S FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION, AND THE UPPER 60S FOR THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL OHIO.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED THIS EVENING AS THE
REGION MOVES INTO AN AREA NVA. HOWEVER, AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES
AND BROADSCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION, SO THE PCPN IS FORECAST BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TONIGHT, WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID
60S.
ON TUESDAY, A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF SWINGS OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT
PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE TROF,
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL
REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROF AND CDFNT MOVE INTO THE REGION. INCREASING WIND SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS COVERED
BY THE SPC SWODY2 SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS TODAY, BEFORE ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE BISECTING THE REGION AS WEDNESDAY
BEGINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO THE MID
70S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALSO BUILDS IN FOR MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A PASSING SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA.
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY, IT APPEARS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AND ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER,
DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES IS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW, HAVE
KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWERS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH, AFFECTING
CMH/LCK AND DAY BY TAF ISSUANCE TIME. THIS PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN
WILL OCCUR WITH CIGS AROUND 12-1500' THROUGH THE PERIOD,
OCCASIONALLY RISING TO 2KFT LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. LOWER
CIGS DROPPING TO IFR CATEGORY WILL PROBABLY OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
MORNING TODAY AND THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AFTER SUNSET, PREVAILING RAIN WILL BREAK UP IN FAVOR OF
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, PARTICULARLY AT KDAY WHERE THE
DYNAMICS LINE UP BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z. HAVE SEEN TWO CG STRIKES
IN THE CWA WITH THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD.
GIVEN SOME INSOLATION DURING THE DAY, A FEW MORE ISOLATED
STRIKES COULD BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TODAY.
CHARACTERIZING THIS AS THE EXPECTED WEATHER WOULD BE AN
EXAGGERATION THOUGH, AND THUNDER REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE TAF
FORECAST TODAY. WILL AMEND IF NOTED DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OR IF
MOVEMENT OF A DISCRETE CELL LOOKS TO IMPACT A TAF SITE LATER
TODAY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ077>079-081-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...BPP
AVIATION...FRANKS
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