033
FXUS61 KILN 062325
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
725 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS.
2) SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID-WEEK. WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED IN THE CONVERGENT LOW CLOUD FIELD ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A
CONVERGENT AXIS SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH EVENING BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO.
MEANWHILE, SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTION FROM NORTHERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THIS AREA DUE TO THE DEEP MOISTURE NOTED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2).
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). LATE IN THE WEEK, A PASSING SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KCVG, KLUK, AND KILN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES AFTER THE FIRST FEW HOURS.
THERE WILL THEN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CU ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY, CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS UNLESS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM GENERATES A
HIGHER GUST.
OUTLOOK... THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...08
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