625
FXUS61 KILN 121052
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WED
AND THURS BEFORE TRENDING MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AND WARMER
AIR ON SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STREAM IN. AS THE FRONT CROSSES, THIS
PRECEDING AIRMASS WILL BE LIFTED AND A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS IT PASSES.
MOST OF THE THUNDER TONIGHT WILL BE SCATTERED AS SHOWERS MOVE IN,
BUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED AS INDICIES ARE NOT FAVORING
THESE PROCESSES.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT MAY LAG TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING IN THE
MORNING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY. EARLIER
MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME POSSIBILITY OF COLD POOL SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
OH, BUT IS NOT TRENDING THIS WAY NOR APPARENT IN LATEST MODEL RUNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
TEMPERATURES REBOUND A LITTLE BIT TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. SOME LOW 70S WILL BE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT OVER NRN KY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WED AND THURS NIGHTS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL, WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS. SAT THROUGH MON WILL JUMP 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S SAT, UPPER 80S SUN, AND NEAR 90 MON. A CORRESPONDING
UPWARD TREND IN OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S SAT NIGHT,
UPPER 60S SUN NIGHT, AND MID-UPPER 60S MON NIGHT.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE DURING THIS WARM PERIOD, BUT MODELS ARE NOT
IN SYNC BUT ALL SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK RIDGING SUN. THIS RIDING IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT S/W ACTIVITY FROM SPARKING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME GIVEN ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BACKING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 8KT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN DURING THE
EVENING, AS WIND TURNS SOUTHERLY. THIS SOUTHERLY WIND WILL PICK UP
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AT 10-15KT AND A 12KFT OVC DECK SHOULD
BE WORKING IN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEFORE DAYBREAK, SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO BE SHORT-LIVED (1-3 HOURS), ENDING
AT KDAY AND KILN BEFORE 12Z. THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE LOOKS TO BE SCATTERING OUT TOWARDS CVG/LUK, SO THIS WAS HANDLED
WITH VCSH AND A TEMPO VSBY RESTRICTION IN -SHRA WITH LOWER CIGS
NEARER TO DAYBREAK.
SIMILAR TO CVG, THE 3 HOUR TIME FRAME OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND LOWER
CIGS IN SHOWERS AT CMH/LCK HAVE BEEN HANDLED IN THE TEMPO GROUP.
WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE FOUND,
BUT INDICIES ARE BULLISH ON ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHTING, PRIMARILY CLOUD-CLOUD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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