618
FXUS61 KILN 131841
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
141 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SNOW,
BRINGING BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
INITIAL AREA OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS CAUSED SNOW TO QUICKLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS INITIAL BURST WILL MOVE OFF THIS
AFTERNOON BUT BE RAPIDLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL
RATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER CONCENTRATED
AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE. THE EARLY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED MORE WEST TO
EAST WHILE THE LATTER WILL PIVOT TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK TO DEPART THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING IN FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY 06Z.
DESPITE BEING A QUICK HITTER, SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS BECOME GREATER WITH TIME AS COLD AIR START TO SPILL
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SLRS DURING THE TIME OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15:1 TO 20:1. TRENDS IN HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HAVE LED TO A TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER, NORTH OF THERE, QPF HAS GOTTEN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SNOWFALL FROM HIGHER FORECAST
PRECIPITATION HAS LED TO EXPANSION OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING INTO
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. WITH BANDING, THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES OR MORE, ESPECIALLY WHEREVER THAT PIVOT POINT ENDS UP BEING.
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE
COMBINATION RESULTS IN BITTER WIND CHILL. COLD ADVISORY HAS THESE
CONDITIONS COVERED WELL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
DECREASING BUT PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLING SUNDAY NIGHT. RECORD
COLD HIGHS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH HIGHS FOR THE DAY
MAY END UP BEING AT MIDNIGHT. AFTER INITIALLY DECREASING LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INCREASE WHICH SHOULD THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT.
RECORD COLD MAXIMA FOR DECEMBER 14:
CVG 15 IN 1917
CMH 16 IN 1917
DAY 16 IN 1917
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL FALL AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT EVEN
WITH LIGHTER WINDS BECAUSE OF COLDER AIR TEMPERATURES. IT MAY BE
MARGINAL WHETHER SOME OF THE AREA REACHES THE CRITERIA, BUT NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TIMING OF THE ADVISORY AT THIS STAGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH BROAD
CONSENSUS IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITHIN THIS CONSENSUS THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SPREAD, PRIMARILY IN AMPLITUDE AND LESSER SO IN THE TIMING.
LOOKING AT THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS, THESE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT MAKING A
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER, AT LEAST FOR THAT FAR
OUT IN TIME WHEN WE ARE NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH DETAILS. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
WILL LARGELY INFLUENCE THE QPF AS WELL AS HOW STRONG THE WIND FIELDS
ARE BOTH PRE AND POST FRONTAL. THAT WILL BE RESOLVED AS THIS GETS
CLOSER IN TIME, BUT FOR NOW A BROAD BRUSH SUFFICES.
OTHER THAN THIS SYSTEM, THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
BIG WARMUP THAT WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER THE BRIEF ARCTIC INTRUSION.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL GOING TO BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY, BUT THEN READINGS WILL BE JUMPING 7 TO 10 DEGREES EACH
FOLLOWING DAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY TO EVEN
APPROACH NORMAL WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES STILL RATHER LOW TO
REACH THIS THRESHOLD (20 TO 30 PERCENT). THURSDAY WILL DEFINITELY
RISE ABOVE NORMAL, ALTHOUGH TO WHAT DEGREE IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR.
PROBABILITY OF REACHING AT LEAST 50 RANGE FROM 80 PERCENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO NEAR 30 PERCENT NORTH OF I-70.
IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY BUT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING 50 AGAIN BY SATURDAY (PROBABILITY 30 TO 70 PERCENT). THE
WARMTH WILL COME WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD ON THAT POTENTIAL. GFS ENSEMBLE IS THE MOST ROBUST
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH ALMOST ALL OF ITS MEMBERS GENERATING
PRECIPITATION. ABOUT HALF OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOLLOW
SUIT. BUT THE OTHER HALF OF THE CANADIAN ALONG WITH MOST OF THE
ECMWF MEMBERS ARE MORE SCANT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES IFR TO LIFR.
AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST OF THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z,
VISIBILITIES WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE. HOWEVER, MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BUT ELSEWHERE, IT APPEARS THAT THE CEILING WILL BREAK, AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY, AND THEN FILL BACK IN DURING THE DAY. BASES AREA WIDE
WILL RISE ABOVE 2KFT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST NORTHWEST BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ053>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY
FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051-052.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR KYZ091>093.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY
FOR KYZ089>100.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR KYZ089-090-
094>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY
FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR INZ080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page