133
FXUS61 KILN 221815
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
215 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. MORE DRIZZLE AND A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EKE WWD OVERNIGHT, AT THE SAME
TIME AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW. BEST DYNAMICS
FROM THE UPPER LOW LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW
MOVES TOWARD THE IN/OH/KY REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL OH AND MOVE WEST. CANNOT
RULE OUT A BIT OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEEP NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW.
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM CENTRAL
OHIO INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND TAIL OFF THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO THEN GET
ABSORBED INTO A LARGER CUT OFF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AT THE END OF
THE WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL BE ABLE TO
SPREAD BACK SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A STUBBORN CLOUD DECK,
THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE NARROWED SO THAT LOW WILL BE A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVELS WILL FINALLY DRY OUT
ON THURSDAY AND THE CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE. SO LOWS WILL GET A BIT
CHILLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR CIGS WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR WITH THE SETTING SUN. A SIMILAR
REBOUND TOMORROW DURING THE DAY IS EXPECTED. ONE EXCEPTION IS
KCVG/KLUK WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY.
DRIZZLE AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION
BUT CAN NOT BE PLACED AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL NOR TIME. USED
DAYBREAK WHERE THE LOW WILL BE ENCROACHING AND CIGS THE LOWEST TO PUT
A LIGHT VSBY RESTRICTION OR CIG LOWERING INTO THE FORECAST. A VERY
WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH ALSO TRACKS TOWARD THE LOW EARLY WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY PRECIP REMAINS IN HIGH QUESTION.
SIMILAR SITUATIONS IN THE PAST HAVE COME WITH A PREVAILING LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND LOW CIGS/VSBYS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ATTM AND
IN THE PAST, SIGNALS FOR THIS SETUP REMAIN MUTED AS THE BROADER
SYNOPTIC INDICATORS DO NOT HAVE RESOLUTION AT THIS LOWER LEVEL WHERE
WX IS BEING GENERATED.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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