280
FXUS61 KILN 121617
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1117 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL EVOLVE DURING THIS TIME, WITH THE
WARMTH PEAKING ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT, WHICH WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER, YET STILL NEAR NORMAL,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ONCE AGAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BROAD DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A LL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E ACROSS THE TN
VLY, ALLOWING FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A MORE MARKED WARMING TREND INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK, WITH WAA BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
BUT UNTIL WE GET TO THAT POINT, SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HELP TEMPS TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE N TO THE MID 50S IN THE S. THERE WILL BE
SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE FROM TIME-TO-TIME THROUGH TODAY, BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACT THE THERMAL TRACE.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN WAS THE CASE EARLIER THIS
MORNING, OWING TO LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE CALMER FOR LOCALES
NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH
DRIFTS E THROUGH THE TN VLY. SOME GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED NEAR/N
OF THE OH RVR TO KEEP WIND UP A BIT MORE FOR THE NRN OH VLY THAN WILL
BE THE CASE FURTHER S. NEVERTHELESS, HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE N TO
THE UPPER 50S NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR AMIDST SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE.
THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER IN
THE W THAN THE E FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN CENTRAL/SOUTH- CENTRAL OH AND
NE KY TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN EC IN WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE INTO THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NW FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ALOFT INTO FRIDAY/SATURDAY, EVEN WITH WAA
BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN THE LLS ON FRIDAY. THE ONSET OF WAA AND AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COINCIDENT WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISO LIGHT SHRA, ESPECIALLY NEAR/S OF I-70,
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, DEPTH OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS MARGINAL, AT BEST, AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE
RAINFALL OCCURRING, EVEN ACROSS THE S, IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
BY EARLY SATURDAY, A DEEPENING/DIGGING LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN LL W/SW FLOW FROM THE MID MS RVR VLY
INTO THE OH VLY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY, HELPING TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 60S. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ENHANCED H8 LLJ ON THE
ORDER OF ABOUT 50KTS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE OH VLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH WARMER AIR BEING BROUGHT IN WITHIN INCREASED
SW FLOW IN THE LOWER PART OF THE PROFILE. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THE MIXING WON'T BE
OVERLY DEEP (WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT THE MAX GUST POTENTIAL), A
SUFFICIENTLY-TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING IN THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH
AT TIMES.
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND NE CONUS REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT, WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURNING BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR SETTLES BACK IN.
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY, VERY DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE OH VLY BEFORE
SOME RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND BEYOND. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING. A SLOW
MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL EVOLVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING BY WEDNESDAY ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, ASIDE FROM SOME
RIVER VALLEY BR/FG, WHICH MAY LEAD TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT KLUK IN THE
SEVERAL HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SOME CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE W TOWARD/BEYOND 18Z THURSDAY.
SOME WNW LLWS ON THE ORDER OF 40KTS WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 00Z-06Z IN CENTRAL OH BEFORE SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.
WSW WINDS OF 12-15KTS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TOWARD/BEYOND 00Z. LIGHT W FLOW AT 5-
10KTS SHOULD STILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT AT KLUK WHERE
WINDS MAY GO CALM AFTER 06Z, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BR/FG
DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT WNW FLOW AROUND 10KTS IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY, WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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