550
FXUS61 KILN 082317
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
717 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A HIGH PRESSURE OF CANADIAN ORIGIN PROVIDES COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
REMAINING LOW INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPERIENCING THE EFFECTS OF A MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. BETTER
MOISTURE OFF LAKE ERIE IS PRODUCING SOME STRATO-CUMULUS, WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. THE COOLER AIR MASS IS PROVIDING THE
FIRST SUB-70 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE DAY IN MANY MONTHS IF YOU DON'T
COUNT THE CLOUDY-RAINY DAY YESTERDAY.
CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH, A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S AREA WIDE, WITH SOME MID 30S POSSIBLE. SOME ISOLATED FROST
IS POSSIBLE, BUT GIVEN THE LINGERING WINDS AND LACK OF WIDESPREAD MID
TO LOW 30S, HAVE HELD OFF ON A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST
US THROUGHOUT THE DAY, SWITCHING SURFACE WINDS TO BE MORE OUT OF THE
EAST VERSUS STRICTLY NORTHEAST. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST ONCE
AGAIN WITH DAY TIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. SO FAR
THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A WHILE, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY LESS OVERNIGHT FLOW, FROST
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL LIKELY
NEED AN ADVISORY DURING THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. THE MENTION REMAINS
IN THE HWO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MOSTLY NEGATIVE PW ANOMALIES AND LONG STRETCHES
OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
FOR FRIDAY, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR NE CONUS,
PROVIDING A CONTINUED SUPPLY OF COOL/DRY AIR LOCALLY AMIDST SUSTAINED
NE LL FLOW. A COMPACT/DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PIVOT TO THE SE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE OH VLY ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXPANDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
A DRY FCST FOR NOW GIVEN LATEST TRENDS SHOWING ANY LOW-END PCPN
CHANCES STAYING OFF TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA. BUT CERTAINLY SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WHICH MAY KEEP
DAYTIME TEMPS A BIT COOLER AS WELL.
A WARMING TREND WILL EVOLVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS EASTWARD, WITH THE CENTER OF THE MIDLEVEL HIGH POSITIONED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE NW GULF OR SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. EITHER WAY, THE
PATTERN SUGGESTS A WARM/DRY PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPS NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY
PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD MIDWEEK. TEMPS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS STRETCH, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 70S BY MIDWEEK. DAILY
MORNING TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT GIVEN THE DRIER AIR
MASS AND WINDS REMAINING AROUND 5 KTS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SHELTERED
LOCATION OF KLUK, SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. KEPT
A TEMPO MVFR VSBY MENTION FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 5-10
KTS, MAINTAINING A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MCGINNIS
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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