510
FXUS61 KILN 181132
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
632 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2019
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY OFFERING
DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH KENTUCKY SATURDAY AND INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING A
WIDE VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES, INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW
AND ICE, ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CLEAR OUT LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE BY
SUNDAY. DRIER AND BITTER COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
TUESDAY, AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT PRECIPITATING SYSTEM.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR ALL OF ILN/S AREA EARLY. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
WEST WILL USHER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA CAUSING VSBYS
TO IMPROVE. THEREFORE, HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION OF DENSE FOG AND
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST WITH
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S
SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
FOCUS ON WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TRACK INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS KY AND INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING.
FLOW BACKS WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z TONIGHT AND INTO THE EAST BY 12Z. WILL
SPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. EXPECT ALL SNOW
NORTH OF I-70 WITH A MIX CENTRAL AND MAINLY RAIN SOUTH. EXPECT
LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AFTER EARLY LOWS...UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR A
SLOW RISE TONIGHT. HAVE LOWS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE 30S SOUTH.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 50 KTS OFFERS GOOD LIFT SATURDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL EARLY SATURDAY.
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE LOW -
EXPECT PCPN TO CHANGE TO A MIX ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR/ALL RAIN
SOUTH AND ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE THERMAL FIELDS AND THEREFORE THE EXACT
PCPN TYPE, WHICH WILL AFFECT WINTER PCPN AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF
1 TO 1.5 INCHES MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOOD ISSUES IN THE FAR SOUTH.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 30 NORTHWEST
TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.
FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
FASTER WITH THE COLD AIR. 8H LOW TRACK QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT
IN A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED. COUPLED
UPPER LEVEL JETS LEAD TO A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL SIGNAL POINTS TO FAVORABLE
DEFORMATION AXIS SATURDAY EVENING WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED SNOW FALL SATURDAY
EVENING PRIOR TO 06Z WHEN THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST.
HAVE STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH AND
STRONGLY CONSIDERED GOING WITH WARNING. BASED ON TIMING OF THE
IMPACTS OF THE EVENT, MODEL TRENDS (UNCERTAINTY), AND
COLLABORATION HAVE CONTINUED THE WATCH. HAVE 4 TO 7 INCHES AND A
MIX ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES
TO THE WATCH (PICKAWAY, ROSS, FAIRFIELD AND HOCKING COUNTIES
WHERE HAVE 3 TO 5 INCHES FORECAST. FURTHER SOUTH, AN ADVISORY
WILL BE A SLAM DUNK FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY - EXPECT A 1 TO 3 INCH TOTAL ACROSS THE SOUTH.
IF THE FAVORABLE DEFORMATION OVERACHIEVES - CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCAL 4 INCH TOTALS. WITH ARCTIC AIR
SETTLING IN EXPECT SUNDAY MORNING LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 20 SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN SUNDAY ON A NORTH WIND BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WINTER STORM. ONCE LINGERING SNOW ENDS IN FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES, STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SCANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 1038
MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP PRECIP FROM OCCURRING
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DUE TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTH INCREASE RAPIDLY ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE LOW, ALLOWING MAINLY RAIN, WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN. COLDER
AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A LARGER PROPORTION
OF SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM WORKS EAST OF THE REGION. CHANCE
OF SNOW LINGERS THURSDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST, SENDING
A SHIELD OF PRECIP BACK TO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHEN HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE TEENS AND 20S. BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ABRUPT WARM UP IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO 40. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD
ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER
30S BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ON WEST WINDS HAS CAUSED VSBYS TO
IMPROVE.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE MVFR THIS AFTN. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WINTER STORM. HAVE RAIN DEVELOPING AT KCVG/KLUK WITH FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW AT ILN AND SNOW AT DAY.
WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE WEST VEERING TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST TONIGHT. AS THE NEXT LOW
APPROACHES EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS ON SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>063-070>072.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR OHZ064-065-073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR
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