363
FXUS61 KILN 030720
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
220 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD
POSE A MINOR FLOODING RISK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS RESULTING IN MINOR FLOOD POTENTIAL TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
2) SEASONABLY WARM AND WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SYNOPTICALLY, ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, WITH TROUGHING IN THE WEST. PERSISTENT, DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A TROPICAL AIR MASS, RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WET AIR. FOR PERSPECTIVE, PWATS WILL INCREASE
TO ABOUT 2-3X THE NORMAL VALUES TODAY AND PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEK.
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TODAY BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM THAT WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STEADY
RAINFALL FOR NEARLY 24 HOURS STRAIGHT.
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT A MORE BROAD COMPLEX OF MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL BE USHERED IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. THIS SLUG OF RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAM GUIDANCE, ENSEMBLES AND HREF
LPMM ALL SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MOST PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE OHIO RIVER AND THE
I-70 CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN THE LARGEST QPF FOOTPRINT. DURING THIS
NEXT 24-36HR TIME PERIOD, MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT 1-3" OF
RAINFALL, WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS JUST OVER 3".
SEASONABLY, LOWER SOIL PERMEABILITY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FLOOD RISK WITHOUT HAVING A GOOD SPRING THAW YET, NOR A
GREEN-UP WITH VEGETATION. THE BIGGEST RISK WITH THIS PERIOD OF
RAINFALL WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAL FLOODING AND FREQUENT
HYDROPLANING ON ROADWAYS WITH THE STEADY RAINFALL.
IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A FAIRLY ROBUST
SWATH OF THIS HIGHER QPF ALIGNING ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER. OTHER
RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THESE
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS MAY SEE INCREASED HYDRO ISSUES, ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS WEEK AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON APPEARS TO OFFER SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN AS THE
WARM FRONT TRIES TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL PLACE THE
ILN CWA MORE IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR AND RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY
BUILDING IN. MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR COMPLEX OF STORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE SOME STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SEEM TO KEEP
MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ELEVATED WITH SOME RESEMBLANCE OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION MAINTAINING ITSELF DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. COMBINE THIS WITH VERY SATURATED PROFILES, IT WILL LIKELY BE
DIFFICULT FOR HAIL OR WIND TO REACH SEVERE CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME
LOCALIZED STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE. ML
TOOLS ALSO NOT STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH THIS.
ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE MIDWEST REGION
THURSDAY, OFFERING ANOTHER GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH EVERY ROUND OF RAINFALL, THE
FLOODING RISK WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO RISE. THE MORE CONVECTIVE-TYPE
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD ALSO RESULT IN MORE FLASH
FLOODING SCENARIOS AS WELL.
WHILE FRIDAY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY, IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL
OBSERVE MORE BREAKS IN THE RAIN, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS REMAINS SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL USHER IN A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY. TOO FAR OUT TO GET INTO DETAILS ON
TIMING/INTENSITY, BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS YET ANOTHER WAVE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL THAT WILL ADD TO THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND
RISING RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT DURING
THIS PERIOD, SO TRIED TO REMOVE SHRA MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING WHEN PCPN SHOULD BE THE LIGHTEST OR MOST LIMITED
IN COVERAGE.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, STALLING OUT ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN CONTINUOUS
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS STEADY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS OUR TERMINALS, SO TRIED TO TIME
OUT A TRANSITION FROM MODERATE TO LIGHT SHRA FOR KCMH/KLCK AND KDAY.
ELSEWHERE, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE SHRA.
CIGS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT LEAST IFR FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME POCKETS OF MVFR/VFR CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, BUT
BY THE AFTERNOON, IFR/LIFR CIGS LIKELY BECOME SOCKED IN. AS FOR
VSBYS, A MIX OF MVFR/IFR PRIMARILY EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN. MVFR
BECOMES MORE FAVORED LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETTER CHANCES FOR IFR TONIGHT.
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO START, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BUT BECOMING MUCH MORE VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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