959
FXUS61 KILN 192324
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
724 PM EDT MON APR 19 2021
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT WHERE IT
WILL BRIEFLY STALL OUT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT ON TUESDAY, MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
REGION. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT
WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
A COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
CROSS THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
EXTENSIVE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR, BUT THE CELLULAR
NATURE OF THE CLOUDS SOUTH OF HERE, AND PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST
OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR INDICATE THAT THEY WILL BREAK UP EARLY THIS
EVENING IN FAVOR OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WILL GRADUALLY SEE THE NORTHERN CLOUD COVER PUSH TO A
BATESVILLE-CINCINNATI-CIRCLEVILLE LINE AND THEN FOCUS MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST.
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE HAVE SKIRTED EAST
TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO BUT NO OBSERVATIONS NOTED ANY PRECIP
HITTING THE GROUND. A SPRINKLE NORTH OF COLUMBUS THIS EARLY
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OUTSIDE OF
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE SUNSET THIS
EVENING.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IT WILL BE AN INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME.
MID LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING EAST THEN NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PERTURB A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BRIEFLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL INITIALLY RESULT IN A
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S FAR NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERATED BY DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK. SO, WE SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE QUICKLY AS THE LOW
MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, A LOT OF WEATHER WILL BE PACKED IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. AS THE LOW DEEPENS, FRONTOGENETIC DRIVEN PCPN
WILL ROTATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
AS THE LOW PULLS WAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT TREND TO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW TRACK WHICH WOULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE
SNOW FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. SPEAKING OF
SNOW, DETERMINING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TOUGH GIVEN WARM GROUND.
HOWEVER, FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 30S AND THE EVENT
OCCURRING AT NIGHT ARE IN FAVOR FOR ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS GRASS, VEHICLES, ETC. IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL WILL BE LIMITED TO VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND SOME SLUSHY
ACCUMS ON PAVEMENT WHERE SNOW MAY FALL MODERATELY TO LOCALLY
HEAVY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
THE MOST SNOW TO FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE 1 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
WHITEWATER/MIAMI VALLEYS, WITH AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE I-71 CORRIDOR. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND
PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S, A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE HOISTED FOR A
GOOD PART OF THE AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE LOW AND ITS MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL QUICKLY
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE PCPN TAPER OFF BY
MORNING WITH A BREAK IN PCPN ACTION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA. BY THEN,
LIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. DESPITE THIS RISE, THESE VALUES
WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. IT WILL BE
CHILLY WITH BRISK WEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THROUGH
A WEAK FEATURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.
ONE MORE COLD NIGHT OF POTENTIAL SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. KEPT FROST OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUD COVER, HOWEVER FROST MAY
HAVE TO BE ADDED FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE AREA AS IT GETS
CLOSER.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN FOR
SATURDAY. DUE TO A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS, INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. AFTER THIS FEATURE
MOVES OUT SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEST WINDS GUSTING 18-24KT THIS EARLY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE AS
THE FLOW RELAXES WITH THE SETTING SUN. CLOUD COVER SOUTHEAST OF
THE I-71 CORRIDOR WILL PROVIDE FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY
ON AT CVG/LUK/ILN, WHILE NORTHERN TAF SITES ALONG AND NEARER THE
I-70 CORRIDOR WILL BE MORE OVERCAST FROM 8-10KFT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE NORTH, AND BY
DAYBREAK AT CVG/LUK AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY NOSE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
CVG/LUK/ILN TOWARDS 06Z, BUT THEN SHOULD ERODE IN THE WARMER MEAN
SW FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WHICH
WILL HAVE LAID OUT ALONG OR NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR. SOME MODELS
STILL HAVE THE LOW TRACK RIGHT THROUGH A CINCY- CIRCLEVILLE
TRACK, BUT MORE THAN A FEW ARE INDICATING A NORTHERLY SURGE OF
COLD AIR PUSHING THE TRACK OF THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH - MORE ALONG
THE OH/WV PORTION OF THE OHIO RIVER. KEPT A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH AND EXPECT LOWER CIGS AT DAY/CMH/LCK AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT ILN BY LATE TOMORROW. RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH IN THE
00Z-06Z TIME FRAME, HITTING CVG TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR
TAF BUT NOT DAY AT THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AND GUSTS TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>045-051>054-060>063-070>072.
KY...NONE.
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-
059-066-073-074.
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...FRANKS
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