185  
FXUS61 KILN 171740  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH  
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT APPRECIABLE  
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL COME LATE SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/
 
 
STRATUS HAS FINALLY LIFTED IN CENTRAL OH TO A CU FIELD, WITH CU  
FIELD PROMINENT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY. THIS CU  
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND SOME THIN CI WILL LINGER  
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED EVER SO SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY  
BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINED UNCHANGED AFTER LOWERING CLOUD  
COVER A LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
CONTINUED VERY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS STRONG  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES SUBSIDENCE AND  
VERY DRY NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A GOOD  
VALLEY FOG EPISODE LATER TONIGHT IN THE USUAL SPOTS WITH THE  
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP BACK INTO THE  
50S.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, MODIFICATION OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL  
CONTINUE UNDER STRONG INSOLATION AND VERY DRY SOILS. WITH 925MB  
TEMPS RISING TO 19C /EAST/ TO 22C /WEST/, THIS WILL PUSH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED  
TO ONCE AGAIN SEE A ROGUE 90F READING OR TWO IN AREAS OF  
NORTHERN KY WHERE SOILS ARE PARTICULARLY DRY AND THE WARMEST LOW  
LEVEL THICKNESSES RESIDE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY. THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER. AS HAS  
BEEN POINTED OUT IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH  
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN POOR, PERHAPS THEY ARE NOT CAPTURING THE  
VERY DRY CONDITIONS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. THUS,  
HAVE BEEN STARTING WITH A MODEL BLEND, THEN RAISING HIGH  
TEMPERATURES 3 TO 4 DEGREES, WHICH FITS MORE IN LINE WITH 925 MB  
MIXED TEMPERATURE RELATIONSHIPS. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  
 
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPRESSED  
DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO  
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH A SLOW-MOVING COLD  
FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE  
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF  
THUNDER, DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE MID AND  
UPPER 80S SUNDAY SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S BY  
MONDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
FAIR WX CU TOPPED WITH THIN CI AND AN EAST-NORTHEAST WIND UNDER  
10KT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH CU  
DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING. TRIED TO SHOW A LIGHTENING OF  
THE WIND OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CI BUT IN ALL, ONE LINE  
TAF FORECASTS MIGHT HAVE BEEN A GOOD CATCH-ALL. ONE EXCEPTION  
HERE IS KLUK WHERE RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY TO OCCUR FOR  
ANOTHER NIGHT. DID NOT GO WITH THE LONGER MVFR VSBY AND TEMPO  
LIFR CIG/VSBY AND TRIED TO LIMIT THE TIMING OF BOTH OF THESE  
RESTRICTIONS, KEEPING IT TO A 2 HOUR FAVORED PERIOD OF LIFR  
BETWEEN 9 AND 11Z.  
 
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS  
NEAR TERM...FRANKS  
SHORT TERM...BINAU  
LONG TERM...HICKMAN  
AVIATION...FRANKS  
 
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