959  
FXUS61 KILN 192324  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
724 PM EDT MON APR 19 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT WHERE IT  
WILL BRIEFLY STALL OUT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS  
FRONT ON TUESDAY, MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY  
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE  
REGION. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT  
WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
 
 
A COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND  
CROSS THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE  
EXTENSIVE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR, BUT THE CELLULAR  
NATURE OF THE CLOUDS SOUTH OF HERE, AND PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST  
OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR INDICATE THAT THEY WILL BREAK UP EARLY THIS  
EVENING IN FAVOR OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTH OF THE I-70  
CORRIDOR WILL GRADUALLY SEE THE NORTHERN CLOUD COVER PUSH TO A  
BATESVILLE-CINCINNATI-CIRCLEVILLE LINE AND THEN FOCUS MORE TO  
THE NORTHWEST.  
 
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE HAVE SKIRTED EAST  
TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO BUT NO OBSERVATIONS NOTED ANY PRECIP  
HITTING THE GROUND. A SPRINKLE NORTH OF COLUMBUS THIS EARLY  
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OUTSIDE OF  
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE SUNSET THIS  
EVENING.  
 
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
IT WILL BE AN INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY  
NIGHT TIME FRAME.  
 
MID LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING EAST THEN NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PERTURB A WAVE OF LOW  
PRESSURE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BRIEFLY STALLED OUT FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL INITIALLY RESULT IN A  
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM  
THE MID 40S FAR NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S FAR SOUTHEAST.  
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE  
GENERATED BY DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ON THE BACK  
SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK. SO, WE SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY DRY DAY FOR  
MOST OF THE REGION, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE QUICKLY AS THE LOW  
MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  
 
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, A LOT OF WEATHER WILL BE PACKED IN A SHORT  
PERIOD OF TIME. AS THE LOW DEEPENS, FRONTOGENETIC DRIVEN PCPN  
WILL ROTATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA  
OVERNIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE AREA  
AS THE LOW PULLS WAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND  
CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY  
MORNING. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT TREND TO  
THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW TRACK WHICH WOULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE  
SNOW FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. SPEAKING OF  
SNOW, DETERMINING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TOUGH GIVEN WARM GROUND.  
HOWEVER, FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 30S AND THE EVENT  
OCCURRING AT NIGHT ARE IN FAVOR FOR ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY  
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS GRASS, VEHICLES, ETC. IMPACTS TO  
TRAVEL WILL BE LIMITED TO VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND SOME SLUSHY  
ACCUMS ON PAVEMENT WHERE SNOW MAY FALL MODERATELY TO LOCALLY  
HEAVY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR  
THE MOST SNOW TO FALL OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE 1 TO 3  
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE  
WHITEWATER/MIAMI VALLEYS, WITH AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE ALONG  
THE I-71 CORRIDOR. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND  
PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 20S, A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE HOISTED FOR A  
GOOD PART OF THE AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, THE LOW AND ITS MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL QUICKLY  
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD SEE PCPN TAPER OFF BY  
MORNING WITH A BREAK IN PCPN ACTION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN A  
WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA. BY THEN,  
LIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL  
RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. DESPITE THIS RISE, THESE VALUES  
WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. IT WILL BE  
CHILLY WITH BRISK WEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP  
INTO THE 20S. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THROUGH  
A WEAK FEATURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT  
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR  
THIS. EXPECT THIS PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.  
 
ONE MORE COLD NIGHT OF POTENTIAL SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IS  
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S EXPECTED  
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. KEPT FROST OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS  
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLOUD COVER, HOWEVER FROST MAY  
HAVE TO BE ADDED FOR AT LEAST A PART OF THE AREA AS IT GETS  
CLOSER.  
 
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN FOR  
SATURDAY. DUE TO A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS, INCREASED  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. AFTER THIS FEATURE  
MOVES OUT SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
WEST WINDS GUSTING 18-24KT THIS EARLY EVENING WILL SUBSIDE AS  
THE FLOW RELAXES WITH THE SETTING SUN. CLOUD COVER SOUTHEAST OF  
THE I-71 CORRIDOR WILL PROVIDE FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY  
ON AT CVG/LUK/ILN, WHILE NORTHERN TAF SITES ALONG AND NEARER THE  
I-70 CORRIDOR WILL BE MORE OVERCAST FROM 8-10KFT THROUGH THE  
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH EARLY IN THE NORTH, AND BY  
DAYBREAK AT CVG/LUK AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES SOUTH THROUGH THE  
REGION TONIGHT. SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY NOSE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO  
CVG/LUK/ILN TOWARDS 06Z, BUT THEN SHOULD ERODE IN THE WARMER MEAN  
SW FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE.  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WHICH  
WILL HAVE LAID OUT ALONG OR NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR. SOME MODELS  
STILL HAVE THE LOW TRACK RIGHT THROUGH A CINCY- CIRCLEVILLE  
TRACK, BUT MORE THAN A FEW ARE INDICATING A NORTHERLY SURGE OF  
COLD AIR PUSHING THE TRACK OF THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH - MORE ALONG  
THE OH/WV PORTION OF THE OHIO RIVER. KEPT A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD  
APPROACH AND EXPECT LOWER CIGS AT DAY/CMH/LCK AND TO A LESSER  
EXTENT ILN BY LATE TOMORROW. RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH IN THE  
00Z-06Z TIME FRAME, HITTING CVG TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR  
TAF BUT NOT DAY AT THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF.  
 
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AND GUSTS TO 30 KT  
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-  
035-042>045-051>054-060>063-070>072.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-  
059-066-073-074.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN  
NEAR TERM...FRANKS  
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN  
LONG TERM...NOVAK  
AVIATION...FRANKS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab IN Page
The Nexlab KY Page Main Text Page