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FXUS61 KILN 091354
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
954 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2020
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
WESTERN EDGE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
COVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER WESTERN KENTCKY ATTM IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT COMES EAST INTO THE RIDGE, LEAVING THE FORECAST
DRY FOR TODAY.
CONTINUED HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MID LEVEL
ENERGY TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY OFF TO
OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT AND HIGH RES
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY OF
THIS WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA SO WILL GENERALLY JUST BRING
SOME LOWER END POPS INTO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT WE WILL SEE THEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY AS WE START TO DESTABILIZE
AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THE CAMS ARE NOT SHOWING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DEVELOPMENT, WILL AT LEAST BRING SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE OF
MID LEVEL ENERGY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
TIME FRAME WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ONE IMPULSE WILL BE
WORKING THROUGH AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
THIS TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY LATER IN THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AREAS OF MAINLY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH MID
MORNING. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CU POSSIBLE. ANY CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HEADING INTO TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MAY REACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT THE CHANCE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL
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