195
FXUS61 KILN 231043
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING.
2) MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SHORT WAVE BREAKING OFF THE SOUTHERN END OF ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND A
CLOSED LOW IN THE CANADIAN PLAINS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS LOOKING A BIT DISJOINTED WITH NO SINGLE
FOCUS OF MID LEVEL ENERGY. WEAKENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS
INDIANA DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY SEE AN UPTICK
IN INTENSITY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THEY HEAD FURTHER EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE ML CAPE COULD REACH AROUND 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR INTO THE EVENING AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO BE ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WIND BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ROBUST SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PRETTY GOOD BROAD AGREEMENT
WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE FOR THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT ARCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THIS LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. IT MAY STAY DRY ALL DAY MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. BUT THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF QUESTION WHETHER THAT WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAINED
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS MAY HAVE A SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. STILL QUITE A WAYS
OUT BUT A SYSTEM TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS TO START THE PERIOD
SHOULD END BY 14Z. BEYOND THAT VFR WILL PREVAIL. HIGH BASED CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK....THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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