228
FXUS61 KILN 211029
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
629 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1) THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2) DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
--> UPDATED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO AREAS OF ONGOING
CLUSTERS OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS, ONE UP ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND ANOTHER ACROSS IOWA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ALONG THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF
THE CLUSTER BACK ACROSS IOWA/ILLINOIS, WITH THIS NEW ACTIVITY THEN
DROPPING DOWN INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY START OFF AS ELEVATED, BUT AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THETA E
ADVECTION UP INTO OUR AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. IF THIS ALL COMES
TOGETHER, THERE COULD BE A LOW END SEVERE RISK ACROSS MAINLY OUR
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS.
THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW WELL WE WILL RECOVER ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. AGAIN THOUGH, GIVEN THE CONTINUED THETA E ADVECTION INTO
OUR AREA, WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME RECOVERY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SBCAPES POSSIBLY RECOVERING INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.
IF THIS OCCURS, WE SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, POSSIBLY FOCUSING ON REMNANT BOUNDARIES FORM THIS
MORNING'S CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD LIKELY BE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. FINALLY, SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
ALL OF THIS MAKES FOR A SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL AND NOT TOTALLY CLEAR
SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRONG
WIND FIELDS (0-6KM AND 0-3KM SHEARS BOTH IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE),
SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AGAIN THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEAR TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. WHILE DAMAGING WIND FROM BOWING
SEGMENTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, SOME LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF SOME OF THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN BETTER ROTATION, MOSTLY LIKELY EARLIER IN THE EVENT THIS
AFTERNOON.
PWS, WILL AGAIN BE IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE ACTIVITY DOES LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE THOUGH
SO THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THAT
BEING SAID, SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS,
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR MID WEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS WITH HIGHS
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST OHIO
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN AREAS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MAINLY AFFECTING THE I-70 TAF SITES. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING SO HAVE INCLUDED JUST A PROB30 FOR -TSRA
LATE THIS MORNING AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH WITH THE TIMING AND OVERALL
COVERAGE DUE TO THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT, WILL HEDGE A
BIT IN THE TAFS AND ALLOW FOR A PREVAILING -SHRA AND THEN A 6 HOUR
PROB30 FOR TSRA TO COVER THE HIGHEST THREAT PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE PREVAILING WIND WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO DECREASE. DRIER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO LEAD TO A DECREASING CLOUD
TREND OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ079-081-
082-088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ094>100.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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