124  
FXUS61 KILN 261033  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
633 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT  
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS THIS  
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR STORMS HOT AND  
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH US WITH A BAND OF  
WESTERLIES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THRU THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK EMBEDDED  
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO TRACK THRU THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. IN  
THE HUMID AIRMASS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL WITH BEST  
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH - CLOSER TO  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED  
FLOODING. A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS - MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 COULD  
PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  
FURTHER SOUTH - DUE TO LACK OF A FORCING MECHANISM CONVECTION WILL BE  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S  
NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH. THE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE  
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100  
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY SOUTH OF  
I-70.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/  
 
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LACK OF FORCING ONGOING CONVECTION TO  
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES  
(CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY) OVERNIGHT. WARM OVERNIGHT  
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.  
 
MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH FLOW OVER THE OHIO  
VALLEY AROUND ITS PERIPHERY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY  
SUNDAY. EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY  
AGAIN EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO THE RANGE FROM THE UPPER  
80S TO THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH 100 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH  
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD AND STORM  
COVERAGE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO  
SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST WITH THE ILN CWA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF  
THIS FEATURE. THIS CONTINUES THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AROUND THE  
REGION. SHOULD NOTE THAT THE BLEND TDS CONTINUE TO BE TOO HIGH AND  
HAVE COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO LOWER THESE AS WE HEAD  
INTO THE START OF THE WORKING WEEK. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THIS TWEAK,  
APPARENT TS STILL FORECAST TO BE AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE  
EARLY HALF OF THE WORKING WEEK. DIURNAL POPS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE  
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME AND WITH THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS,  
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN.  
 
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING  
THROUGH CANADA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION MID WEEK. DESPITE BEING PRETTY FAR DISPLACED FROM THE PARENT  
LOW, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE POTENT ENOUGH IN TERMS OF DRIVING  
DRY AIR DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A  
REPRIEVE FROM THE HUMIDITY NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. RIGHT NOW,  
BLEND KEEPS A WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS IN WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH  
THURSDAY WITH THIS FROPA, SO WE'LL EXPECT TO BE DEALING WITH AT  
LEAST SOME CONVECTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT WILL WAIT FOR LATER  
RUNS TO GET MORE DETAILS ON TIMING/PLACEMENT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED THRU THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF STORMS. SOME  
EARLY MORNING MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR FOG AT KLUK WILL IMPROVE  
QUICKLY.  
 
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION AGAIN THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY  
PARTICULAR TIMING, PROB30S CURRENTLY OUTLINE THE GENERAL THREAT FROM  
16Z-02Z. COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE MORE THAN WE OBSERVED  
YESTURDAY.  
 
DIUNRALLY DRIVEN STORMS DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SOME MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.  
 
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON  
AROUND 8-10 KNOTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY,  
PEAKING IN ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  
 
 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088.  
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
KYZ089>100.  
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
INZ058-059-066-073>075-080.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...AR  
NEAR TERM...AR  
SHORT TERM...AR  
LONG TERM...CA  
AVIATION...AR  
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