814
FXUS61 KILN 011037
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
637 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL IN AND
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO INTO THE MIAMI VALLEY FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME TODAY.
2) SOME FROST IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
IMPACTS TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION LIKELY. FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA EACH NIGHT AS WELL.
3) EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLES INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SEASONABLY MILD PATTERN WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN WILL EVOLVE THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE CHILLY AIR
RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
APPROACH OF A S/W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASAL PORTION OF A
BROAD/EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROF CENTERED OVER SE CANADA. THIS S/W
WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY THROUGH THE OH VLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAYTIME, WITH A WEAK SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING W
TO E THROUGH THE ILN FA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE FOCUSED NEAR/NORTH OF
I-70. WITHIN THE CAA REGIME IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, EVEN AS
THE WEAK SFC WAVE TRANSLATES TO THE E, SOME WEAK INSTBY WITH
STEEPENING (AND DEEP) LL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR ISO/SCT SHRA TO
DEVELOP MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING (INCLUDING TO SEVERAL
HOURS PAST SUNSET). SOME ISO TS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST CORES GIVEN THE COOL THERMAL PROFILE AND SOME VERY SHALLOW
INSTBY BELOW -10C, BUT THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ISO IN
COVERAGE. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL EVOLVE AREA-WIDE BY MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ALTHOUGH EXPANSIVE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING,
CLEARING SKIES WILL EVOLVE INTO WC OH AND EC IN PAST SUNSET,
EVENTUALLY REACHING MANY AREAS NEAR/N OF I-71 PAST MIDNIGHT AS THE
STRATOCU SCATTERS OUT. SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST
FROM CENTRAL OH THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL OH INTO NE KY, WITH A "WEDGE"
OF CLEARING STRETCHING FROM WC OH THROUGH SW OH AND NORTHERN KY AND
ALL OF EC/SE IN BY DAYBREAK. THIS, COMBINED WITH LIGHT SFC FLOW, WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR SOME FROSTY (AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZE) CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF FROST (AND POTENTIAL PATCHY FREEZE
CONDITIONS) IS EXPECTED FROM EC IN INTO WC OH AND THE MIAMI VALLEY.
SOME EXPANSION (OR POSSIBLY AN UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING) MAY BE
NEEDED IF SKY/WIND CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THE SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS IS PROBABLY EVEN A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A NEARBY SFC
HIGH DRIFTS TO THE SE INTO THE TN VLY, WITH VERY LIGHT SFC FLOW AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AS WELL. EITHER WAY,
SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED FROM THE IMPENDING
COLD CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3)
PERSISTENT ANOMALOUSLY-DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE ERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD AN
EXTENDED STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE OH VLY, WITH A FEW
BRIEF WARM-UPS TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR
MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK.
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ALSO EVOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT
STRETCHES OUT ACROSS THE OH VLY, WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL OCCUR AS DEEP TROUGHING IMPINGES INTO THE NRN
GREAT LAKES, WITH ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING FROM THE MID MS
RVR VLY INTO THE OH VLY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROPAGATE E WITHIN
THIS FLOW, PROVIDING OPPORTUNITIES FOR EPISODIC SHOWERS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A RETURN TO AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY PATTERN IS
LIKELY BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE W ALONGSIDE
LIGHT SHRA, WHICH WILL PROGRESS W TO E THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL EVOLVE
PAST 18Z FOR THE LOCAL TERMINALS, SOME ISO SHRA WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FAVORED NEAR KCMH/KLCK. SPOTTY TS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. COVERAGE OF THE LATE-DAY ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY ISO, BUT A PROB30 HAS BEEN ADDED AT KCMH/KLCK
FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN BY MIDNIGHT.
THE VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY GO MVFR VERY BRIEFLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING/SCATTERING SOMEWHAT AND RETURNING TO VFR BY
AROUND 18Z. BUT VFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SKIES
WILL TREND CLEARER FOR WRN SITES OF KDAY/KILN/KCVG/KLUK PROGRESSIVELY
TONIGHT, WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070-071.
KY...NONE.
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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