597
FXUS61 KILN 191047
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2022
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE STILL EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH THE DAY. CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP AGAIN,
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
AND THAT AREA IS WHERE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME HINT WITHIN GUIDANCE THAT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A BIT OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY THAT COULD BE TAPPED IN A VERY WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS MAY OCCUR, BUT IT IS
WORTH MONITORING.
AS A MID LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, HEIGHTS WILL FALL AND SOME ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GREATER
COVERAGE NORTH AND WEST OF I-71.
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TONIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH SUN BEFORE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY FOR HIGHS TO END UP NEAR
PERSISTENCE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH GOOD CONTINUITY AND A
VERY MINIMAL VARIABILITY ON HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM 77 TO 85 THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY BETWEEN 79 AND 83. THE
COOLEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY WITH CLOUD COVER, NORTH WINDS AND SOME
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THURS/FRI WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS
FROM 81-85. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM 61 TO 67 THROUGH THE
FORECAST WITH SATURDAY NIGHT BEING THE WARMEST AROUND 66 DEGREES.
LARGER PATTERN SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION AS AN
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER LOW
WEAKENS BUT BECOMES A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH THAT WILL INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST. AS THE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CWA, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CULMINATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH CROSSES IN THE EVENING AND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL TURN OFF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RELATIVELY
QUICKLY.
HAD TO LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES A BIT ON MONDAY FROM THE NBM AS IT
JUST LOOKED MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN.
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE DAY SEEMED A BIT OVERDONE BUT GIVEN SOME
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SUNNY BREAKS I DID NOT OPT
TO REMOVE IT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE FOUND THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
PASSES EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A MUDDLED SURFACE FLOW IS FOUND FOR THE
FINAL FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST WITH RELATIVELY UNCHANGED HEIGHTS IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT A FEW SITES WILL END VERY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. A FEW MID CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY,
THEN CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 16Z. BASES WILL LIFT LATE IN THE
DAY WITH AT LEAST SOME CUMULUS PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...
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