254
FXUS61 KILN 291051
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
651 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY,
BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAINFALL.
2) EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH TODAY, OFF AND ON PERIODS
OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. LIMITED INSTABILITY INHIBITS THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS, BUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL KEEPS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THE LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST SUPPORTING STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, AND A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE OVERALL EXPECTATIONS FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH
OF COOLER DAYS LATER THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY, BEGINNING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 55 AND 60, WHICH IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST LOOKS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY BETWEEN THE TWO DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS AND CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOLER AIR WEATHER, BUT THERE
WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
THIS WEEKEND, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL
EXIT TO THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH, BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE SHOWER-LIKE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF.
A WIDE VARIETY OF CIG RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WITH VFR TO LIFR
PRESENT AT THE ONSET OF THE 12Z TAFS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON IN
MOST PREVAILING GROUPS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SCATTERING OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR BEFORE CHANCES OF MVFR INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHERN SITES LIKE CVG/LUK HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE MVFR
CONDITIONS SO HELD OFF ON A MENTION THERE UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW BUT NOT ZERO. GIVEN THE LOW
PROBABILITY, NO MENTIONS WERE USED IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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