645  
FXUS61 KILN 171912  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
312 PM EDT WED APR 17 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
THE AREA DRIES OUT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT  
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR  
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, THERE  
WILL BE A NOTABLE COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND, BEFORE  
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AT THE START OF  
THE NEAR TERM PERIOD, HERALDING IN A ~10 DEGREE DROP IN TDS.  
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN  
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST. WEAK RIDGING  
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PARENT SHORTWAVE HELP CLEAR SKIES  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP TO THE LOW 50S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
THE WEAK RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES EAST OUT OF THE REGION, WITH  
MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY MORNING SKIES BEING SLOWLY REPLACED WITH  
HIGH CLOUDS BY THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT  
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM. THE ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES UP FROM  
THE OZARKS REGION, BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF THETA-E THROUGH THE  
REGION LATE THURSDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN  
THE LOW 80S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS  
CENTRAL OHIO.  
 
12 AND 18Z CAM RUNS INDICATE A MULTICELL CLUSTER OFF TO OUR WEST  
QUICKLY CONGEALING INTO A (POSSIBLY BOWING?) LINE AS IT MOVES  
THROUGH OUT AREA. RIGHT NOW, THE HIGHER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS  
TO BE CLOSER TO THE TRI- STATE, WHERE FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE  
IS A BIT STRONGER. IN TERMS OF HAZARDS, PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE  
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH THAT BEING SAID... TIME OF  
ARRIVAL IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION  
AS TO WHETHER THE LINE ARRIVES LATE ENOUGH IN THE EVENING THAT  
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE DIMINISHED. CONTINUED HIGH  
MOISTURE CONTENT SUGGESTS EFFICIENT RAIN RATES AND THE  
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF FLOODING.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
LINGERING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILL TAPER  
OFF FROM THE WEST THROUGH MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE  
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW  
PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN  
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL NOSE DOWN INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST  
US THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS  
ACROSS OUR AREA FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DAYTIMES HIGHS WILL BE  
IN IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 30S.  
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST CONDITIONS BOTH SATURDAY  
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.  
 
MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A  
THUNDERSTORMS TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS  
IN THE 60S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
A LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO  
NORTHWEST OHIO WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SITE  
(EXCEPT KCVG/KLUK) HAS A PERIOD OF TSRA WHEN STORMS ARE FORECAST  
TO MOVE THROUGH. FOR THE TWO SOUTHERN SITES, CONFIDENCE IS  
LOWER THAT STORMS WILL REACH THAT FAR SOUTH, SO OPTED TO KEEP  
TAFS CLEANER FOR THE TIME BEING.  
 
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, CIGS HAVE CLEARED UP TO A SCATTERED DECK OF  
STRATOCU AND WILL CONTINUE CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS, SHIFT TO OUT OF  
THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.  
 
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND VFR  
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME HI-RES  
GUIDANCE HINTS AT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWEST OHIO/  
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AFTER WINDS DIE DOWN, HOWEVER, DOESN'T LOOK TO  
BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE, THEREFORE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS.  
 
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE  
POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30  
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...CA  
NEAR TERM...CA  
SHORT TERM...CA  
LONG TERM...JGL  
AVIATION...CA  
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