846
FXUS61 KILN 222000
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
400 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE OHIO RIVER AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
AROUND THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
SAG SOUTH WITH FRONT, COMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO APPEARS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 TROF. THIS AREA SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DRIER DEWPOINTS WILL FILTER IN,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. AN H5 TROF WILL SWING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH CAA AND THE LIFT FROM UPPER TROF, SCATTERED CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL GO MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
IN GENERAL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LONG TERM, ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND
THEN WARM BY SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL THE TAFS AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LINE OF STRONGER SHOWERS ON RADAR. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. DON'T EXPECT THE THUNDER TO
AFFECT THE TAFS HOWEVER.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE AFFECTING THE TAFS, BUT THERE ARE IFR CLOUDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH COULD FLOAT IN AND OUT OF THE TAFS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH,
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
SCATTERED CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 14-15Z ON TUESDAY AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT KICKS THE LAPSE RATES OVER.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES
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