439
FXUS61 KILN 301044
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
EAST OUT AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATE RAIN RATES NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH AN INCH OR SO OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
AFTER THIS PASSES, THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE MOVING
THROUGH AND SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME CONVECTION TO OCCUR, PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF I-71
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOWER 70S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
A WEAK SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS IT QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE TAIL END OF IT MAY
STRING OUT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY MAY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
MEAN H5 TROUGH WILL BE ALIGNED THROUGH OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOBES
OF PVA DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA WILL KEEP THE TROUGHING
STRUCTURE INTACT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, PROMOTING
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE, EXPECT
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S (~5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES).
THE SEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END AS THIS TROUGH
PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND BEGINS TO BE REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE RIDGE ON
MONDAY. WE WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO OBSERVE A RESPONSE IN SURFACE TEMPS
MONDAY AS MANY LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO HIT THE 80 DEGREE MARK. A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH ABOUT MID-WEEK. GIVEN THAT THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE LOCATED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, PERSISTENT
RETURN FLOW WILL PROMOTE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S ON TUESDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING THROUGH THE MIDWEST REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS, MORE LONG LASTING
AT THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS, WHERE THERE MAY EVEN BE TEMPORARY IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
SHORTLY AFTER THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES EAST, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
VFR AREA WIDE. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH, BUT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR WITH THIS LAST SYSTEM. IN THE WAKE OF THIS,
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP IN THE COLUMBUS
AREA.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CLARK
AVIATION...
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