510  
FXUS61 KILN 181132  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
632 AM EST FRI JAN 18 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY OFFERING  
DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS. A WINTER STORM WILL TRACK FROM  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH KENTUCKY SATURDAY AND INTO  
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING A  
WIDE VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES, INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW  
AND ICE, ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL CLEAR OUT LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE BY  
SUNDAY. DRIER AND BITTER COLD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL  
TUESDAY, AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT PRECIPITATING SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE  
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTH TRAILING COLD  
FRONT WILL CLEAR ALL OF ILN/S AREA EARLY. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE  
WEST WILL USHER SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA CAUSING VSBYS  
TO IMPROVE. THEREFORE, HAVE DROPPED ALL MENTION OF DENSE FOG AND  
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.  
 
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA  
OFFERING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST WITH  
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL  
WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 30S  
SOUTHEAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
FOCUS ON WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS  
WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO TRACK INTO THE  
LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN ACROSS KY AND INTO THE  
UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
FLOW BACKS WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE  
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z TONIGHT AND INTO THE EAST BY 12Z. WILL  
SPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. EXPECT ALL SNOW  
NORTH OF I-70 WITH A MIX CENTRAL AND MAINLY RAIN SOUTH. EXPECT  
LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. AFTER EARLY LOWS...UNDER  
THE INFLUENCE OF WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR A  
SLOW RISE TONIGHT. HAVE LOWS FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE  
MIDDLE 30S SOUTH.  
 
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OF 50 KTS OFFERS GOOD LIFT SATURDAY.  
WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL EARLY SATURDAY.  
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE LOW -  
EXPECT PCPN TO CHANGE TO A MIX ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR/ALL RAIN  
SOUTH AND ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS STILL A FAIR  
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE THERMAL FIELDS AND THEREFORE THE EXACT  
PCPN TYPE, WHICH WILL AFFECT WINTER PCPN AMOUNTS. RAINFALL OF  
1 TO 1.5 INCHES MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOOD ISSUES IN THE FAR SOUTH.  
 
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 30 NORTHWEST  
TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.  
 
FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND  
FASTER WITH THE COLD AIR. 8H LOW TRACK QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER  
OHIO VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT  
IN A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL  
BECOME GUSTY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED. COUPLED  
UPPER LEVEL JETS LEAD TO A REGION OF GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE  
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL SIGNAL POINTS TO FAVORABLE  
DEFORMATION AXIS SATURDAY EVENING WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC  
FORCING. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED SNOW FALL SATURDAY  
EVENING PRIOR TO 06Z WHEN THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST.  
 
HAVE STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH AND  
STRONGLY CONSIDERED GOING WITH WARNING. BASED ON TIMING OF THE  
IMPACTS OF THE EVENT, MODEL TRENDS (UNCERTAINTY), AND  
COLLABORATION HAVE CONTINUED THE WATCH. HAVE 4 TO 7 INCHES AND A  
MIX ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES  
TO THE WATCH (PICKAWAY, ROSS, FAIRFIELD AND HOCKING COUNTIES  
WHERE HAVE 3 TO 5 INCHES FORECAST. FURTHER SOUTH, AN ADVISORY  
WILL BE A SLAM DUNK FOR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY  
NIGHT. GENERALLY - EXPECT A 1 TO 3 INCH TOTAL ACROSS THE SOUTH.  
IF THE FAVORABLE DEFORMATION OVERACHIEVES - CAN NOT RULE OUT THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCAL 4 INCH TOTALS. WITH ARCTIC AIR  
SETTLING IN EXPECT SUNDAY MORNING LOWS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS  
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 20 SOUTHEAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
COLD AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN SUNDAY ON A NORTH WIND BEHIND THE  
DEPARTING WINTER STORM. ONCE LINGERING SNOW ENDS IN FAR EASTERN  
COUNTIES, STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SCANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 1038  
MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY KEEP PRECIP FROM OCCURRING  
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DUE TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND  
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTH INCREASE RAPIDLY ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF  
THE LOW, ALLOWING MAINLY RAIN, WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN. COLDER  
AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A LARGER PROPORTION  
OF SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM WORKS EAST OF THE REGION. CHANCE  
OF SNOW LINGERS THURSDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST, SENDING  
A SHIELD OF PRECIP BACK TO THE OHIO VALLEY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHEN HIGHS ARE  
FORECAST TO REACH THE TEENS AND 20S. BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES AND  
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ABRUPT WARM UP IS EXPECTED  
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO 40. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD  
ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER  
30S BY THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TAF SITES. SLIGHTLY  
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ON WEST WINDS HAS CAUSED VSBYS TO  
IMPROVE.  
 
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.  
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE MVFR THIS AFTN. MVFR CEILINGS  
WILL LIKELY DROP DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT  
WINTER STORM. HAVE RAIN DEVELOPING AT KCVG/KLUK WITH FREEZING  
RAIN AND SNOW AT ILN AND SNOW AT DAY.  
 
WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE WEST VEERING TO THE  
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST TONIGHT. AS THE NEXT LOW  
APPROACHES EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH PRECIPITATION ON  
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY  
WINDS ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>063-070>072.  
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING  
FOR OHZ064-065-073-074.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...AR  
NEAR TERM...AR  
SHORT TERM...AR  
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO  
AVIATION...AR  
 
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