683
FXUS61 KILN 252346
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
646 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH BRISK WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OFFER CONTINUED DRY AND COLD WEATHER
ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTERY MIX TO THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
WEST-SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF
A LOW THAT TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
JET - WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO TAPER TO SOME DRIZZLE AND WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES IN THE LOW
LEVELS WHICH MAY LEAD TO CONTINUED DRIZZLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING. A TEMPORARY DRY SLOT LOOKS TO DEVELOP INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO
THE FRONT COMING THRU. THIS WILL LIKELY END THE POSSIBILITY OF
DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
WESTERN OHIO LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND EXTREME WESTERN OHIO TO THE UPPER 40S IN
THE SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
DEEP STACKED LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK THRU THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
HAS ENTERED WESTERN OHIO LATE TONIGHT WILL SWEEP EAST THRU THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN THE STRONG CAA TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING
THE DAY REACHING READINGS FROM 35 NORTHWEST TO NEAR 40 SOUTHEAST BY
LATE DAY. CLOUDS LINGER AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 45 MPH AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM SOUNDINGS - EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WINDS
DIMINISH - SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
PERIOD FROM 10 AM UNTIL 10 PM.
CLOUDS LOOK TO START BREAKING UP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTI-
CYCLONIC. COLD TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S BY
THANKSGIVING MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
QUEBEC BY THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL STILL
BE FAIRLY TIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND WEAK CAA, EXPECT BRISK CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S IN OUR FAR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS
AND WINDS, BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE LOW TO
MOVE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, WE WILL SEE INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEVELOPING WAA INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS PCPN OVERSPREADS THE OHIO VALLEY. PCPN IS LIKELY TO START OFF AS
MAINLY SNOW ON SATURDAY BUT THEN MIX WITH/CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE STARTING OFF COLD ON SATURDAY SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST WHERE RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE AN INCH OR SO
COULD BE POSSIBLE.
AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS TOO THOUGH SO FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE
SOME LOWER END PCPN POPS AND A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY IN DZ
THIS EVENING. TRENDS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATE TONIGHT, AS GUIDANCE
OFFERS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES ABOVE IFR. HOWEVER, MAIN
IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE INCREASING SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH GUSTS
HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE, THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. DIRECTION
WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST OR JUST SOUTH OF WEST, WITH GUSTS PEAKING
ABOVE 30 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR TO CLOSE THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...WINDS GUSTS OF 25-30KTS LIKELY THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-
066.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...
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