185
FXUS61 KILN 171740
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
140 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT APPRECIABLE
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL COME LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/
STRATUS HAS FINALLY LIFTED IN CENTRAL OH TO A CU FIELD, WITH CU
FIELD PROMINENT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY. THIS CU
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND SOME THIN CI WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE MODIFIED EVER SO SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY
BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINED UNCHANGED AFTER LOWERING CLOUD
COVER A LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
CONTINUED VERY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A GOOD
VALLEY FOG EPISODE LATER TONIGHT IN THE USUAL SPOTS WITH THE
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP BACK INTO THE
50S.
ON WEDNESDAY, MODIFICATION OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE UNDER STRONG INSOLATION AND VERY DRY SOILS. WITH 925MB
TEMPS RISING TO 19C /EAST/ TO 22C /WEST/, THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO ONCE AGAIN SEE A ROGUE 90F READING OR TWO IN AREAS OF
NORTHERN KY WHERE SOILS ARE PARTICULARLY DRY AND THE WARMEST LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES RESIDE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER REGIME
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER. AS HAS
BEEN POINTED OUT IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN POOR, PERHAPS THEY ARE NOT CAPTURING THE
VERY DRY CONDITIONS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. THUS,
HAVE BEEN STARTING WITH A MODEL BLEND, THEN RAISING HIGH
TEMPERATURES 3 TO 4 DEGREES, WHICH FITS MORE IN LINE WITH 925 MB
MIXED TEMPERATURE RELATIONSHIPS. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPRESSED
DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AND THE
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER, DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S SUNDAY SHOULD COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FAIR WX CU TOPPED WITH THIN CI AND AN EAST-NORTHEAST WIND UNDER
10KT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH CU
DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING. TRIED TO SHOW A LIGHTENING OF
THE WIND OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CI BUT IN ALL, ONE LINE
TAF FORECASTS MIGHT HAVE BEEN A GOOD CATCH-ALL. ONE EXCEPTION
HERE IS KLUK WHERE RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE LIKELY TO OCCUR FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT. DID NOT GO WITH THE LONGER MVFR VSBY AND TEMPO
LIFR CIG/VSBY AND TRIED TO LIMIT THE TIMING OF BOTH OF THESE
RESTRICTIONS, KEEPING IT TO A 2 HOUR FAVORED PERIOD OF LIFR
BETWEEN 9 AND 11Z.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS
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