733  
FXUS61 KILN 191956  
AFDILN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH  
356 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOLER AND  
DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A  
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,  
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG  
WITH WARMER, MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
PCPN MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS  
EXHIBITING LITTLE IF NO LIGHTNING. THIS PCPN IS IN ASSOCIATION  
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTHWEST, WHICH HAS INDUCED  
A CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL JET. AM EXPECTING THIS PCPN TO MOVE OUT  
OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER  
POSSIBLE. THUS, THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY ACROSS  
OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY, ONLY  
ONE REPORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN MET TODAY. WITH  
THE PCPN MOVING IN, LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN AND TEMPERATURES  
WILL DROP, LIMITING MIXING POTENTIAL. THUS, ANY WIND GUSTS OVER  
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY IN THE PCPN, ESPECIALLY THE  
FOCUSED LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWFA.  
 
FOR LATER THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO  
OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO  
RECOVER ENOUGH FOR A ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, BUT BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  
 
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS  
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, FORCING WILL WEAKEN AS WELL AS  
LOWERING INSTABILITY SUCH THAT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOW  
EXPECTED AS IT MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MORNING.  
 
SKIES WILL BRIEFLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE LOWER CLOUDS/MOSTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOP IN THE CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS  
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WEST TO THE LOWER 60S EAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN  
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. CAA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP  
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY  
AFTERNOON, LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT UP INTO A CUMULUS DECK WITH  
MORE HOLES DEVELOPING AS THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROGRESS. IT WILL  
BE LOCALLY GUSTY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST.  
IT WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S  
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S FAR SOUTHEAST.  
 
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE  
BUILDING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CUMULUS  
CLOUDS SHOULD DISPERSE AND/OR DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING,  
BEING REPLACED BY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN  
FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE A LITTLE CHILLY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM  
THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL INDUCE THE SLIGHT NOSING OF THE RIDGE  
AXIS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY  
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL  
MAINTAIN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN A POST-FRONTAL  
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ILN FA, WITH POTENTIALLY ONLY A FEW  
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST- SOUTHWEST THROUGH  
THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN  
WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OHIO TO THE LOW 70S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE  
OHIO RIVER.  
 
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANTS OF WHAT  
ONCE WAS A COHESIVE AND WELL-FORMED CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THE  
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY WILL NUDGE EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA  
BUT WILL MOST LIKELY DO SO IN A WEAKENING STATE AS THE SOURCE  
IMPULSE/DISTURBANCE ESSENTIALLY BECOMES SHEARED-OUT AS IT  
PROGRESSES INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT  
CHARACTERIZED BY A MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FROM EASTERN TN  
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN MI. AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL  
DECREASE WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE NUDGING OF THE  
PSEUDO-WARM FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH JUST CHANCE POPS  
DURING THE DAY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE DISTURBANCE PUSH EAST  
THROUGH THE REGION.  
 
BY MIDWEEK, THE EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF STATES  
AND SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL YIELD AN INCREASINGLY LARGE, WARM, AND  
HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS BOTH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. SOME  
OF THIS WARMTH WILL BUILD BACK NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS  
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY (AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES EAST), WHICH  
WILL HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTBY WITH THE  
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TO SPROUT SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN  
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT  
OVERLY STRONG, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SEASONABLY  
MODEST ISTBY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SO CERTAINLY  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST DURING THIS  
TIME PERIOD.  
 
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL  
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY -- AND THIS HAS BEEN, AND CONTINUES TO  
BE, SUPPORTED BOTH IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATASETS AMONG  
MULTIPLE SYNOPTIC-BASED MODELING SYSTEMS. THE POSITIONING OF THE  
HIGH ITSELF WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER  
LOCALLY -- AS IT AT THE VERY LEAST APPEARS LIKE THE CENTER OF  
THE RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SETUP DOES  
LEND ITSELF TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES RIDING  
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE, WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP  
A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST  
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE OHIO VALLEY)  
OPPOSED TO GOING WITH A HOTTER/DRIER SOLUTION. AM LEANING RIGHT  
NOW TOWARD DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BEING MAINTAINED WITH  
THE OHIO VALLEY POSITIONED MORE SQUARELY ON THE FRINGES OF THE  
RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THESE KINDS OF PATTERNS CAN BE DECEIVINGLY  
ACTIVE FOR US HERE LOCALLY, DID NOT WANT TO JUMP TOO MUCH ON  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND  
PLACEMENT. THE PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST  
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY VERY WELL FEATURE MULTIPLE  
ROUNDS OF STORMS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THE SPECIFICS OF WHICH MAY  
NOT COME INTO BETTER FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS.  
NEVERTHELESS, THE PROSPECT OF HAVING MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES PIVOT  
ABOUT THE RIDGE AXIS AMIDST AN INHERENTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL  
BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR EPISODIC  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 
WITH ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A VERY  
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD -- WITH HIGHS IN THE  
80S/NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST AROUND  
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, INDUCING A LOW LEVEL JET TO PUSH  
NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND  
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT (MARGINAL)  
AND HAVE BACKED OFF TO PREDOMINATE SHRA/-SHRA AND A VCTS/CB.  
SOME LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER  
SHOWERS AND WHERE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY  
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  
 
FOR THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION.  
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND  
AHEAD OF IT.  
 
FOR THE OVERNIGHT, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE  
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT EAST  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL  
SHRINK/DECREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO  
INDICATE THAT MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET WILL FORM  
BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
ON MONDAY, OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE CAA PATTERN BEHIND THE  
FRONT. IT WILL REMAIN A LITTLE GUSTY WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING  
NORTHWEST. MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT INTO A CUMULUS BASE BETWEEN  
3500 AND 4500 FEET BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.  
 
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
IN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN  
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN  
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN  
LONG TERM...KC  
AVIATION...HICKMAN  
 
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