127
FXUS61 KILN 112322
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
622 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND FOR
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKS, WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASING CLOUD/WIND TREND FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL ENERGY COULD LEAD TO SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND CONUS WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED. A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THIS FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY A 45-50 KNOT JET. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TUESDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 40S; AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND PTYPE
LOOK TO REMAIN ALL RAIN GIVEN THE WARM LOWER LAYERS OF THE COLUMN.
IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF THIS COLD FRONT, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
LOBE PIVOTS AROUND THE LARGER FLOW, ALSO DEEPENING AS IT MOVES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR AS WELL AS ROBUST LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. AS THE COLUMN
COOLS, P-TYPE WILL BEGIN TO MIX OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE
BECOMING ALL SNOW ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME DETAILS
STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT, BUT DECENT CONSENSUS FOR SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL AS MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S LOWS LOOK TO FALL TO THE TEENS WITH
THURSDAY'S HIGHS IN THE 20S.
AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND, OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT
WAVE OF ENERGY ON OUR DOORSTEP, BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/PLACEMENT PREVENT MUCH CONFIDENCE AT THIS JUNCTION. FOR NOW,
HAVE MAINTAINED THE BLEND, WHICH REINTRODUCES CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL TAPER OFF EARLY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON
MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 KTS EARLY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE
HIGH STARTS TO BUILD IN. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-23 KTS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page