609
FXUS61 KILN 100614
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
114 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT. TIMING OF CLOUD ARRIVAL IS LATER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AHEAD OF
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THOUGH HELD BACK SOME
BY THE SNOWPACK, WILL RISE IN A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO MID AND
UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. THE SECONDARY IMPACT OF THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COLD GROUND IS THAT STRATUS AND FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP STARTING LATER THIS MORNING. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS
CAUSE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. EITHER
WAY, IT APPEARS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CAUSE
THEM TO THIN AND SCATTER TO SOME DEGREE.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST IN PROGRESSIVE, ZONAL
FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF PWATS EXCEEDING AN
INCH REMAIN LOW, THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TOTAL RAINFALL TO
APPROACH AN INCH ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL. IT
WILL DEPEND BOTH ON THE QPF AND ALSO ANY REMAINING LIQUID CURRENTLY
LOCKED IN THE SNOWPACK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR STARTING LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS A
COLD SNOW- COVERED GROUND. MODEL TIMING VARIES AND SO DOES THE CLOUD
BASE AND VISIBILITY. MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE 17Z-01Z PERIOD IS
WHETHER THE MOISTURE MANIFESTS AS A DENSE FOG OR A LOW STRATUS. FOR
NOW, HAVE KEPT IFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITY. HOWEVER, WITH
INCREASING HREF PROBABILITIES OF 1/2 MILE (OR LESS) VISIBILITY, WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND REVISIT FOR THE 12Z ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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