800
FXUS61 KILN 250649
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
249 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS THURSDAY. COLDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
2) THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THAT
MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, SOME OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE TODAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TONIGHT
AND THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO 10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL ADVECT IN ABNORMALLY WARM AIR THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. AN EARLY ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
WILL GREET US THURS MORNING, BUT IT WILL NOT HAMPER ANY TEMPERATURE
RISES AS TEMPS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN/ADVECTED AND NOT OVERLY DEPENDENT
ON INSOLATION.
THOUGH HIGHS WILL BE 20-25 DEG ABOVE NORMAL, FORECAST IS TRENDING
EVER SLIGHTLY LESS WARM, REMAINING JUST A FEW (2-4) DEG BELOW
RECORDS. THURS MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S MOST LOCATIONS,
NEAR OR LOW 80S IN THE SWRN CWA AND ALONG OHIO RIVER, MID-UPPER 70S
IN CENTRAL OHIO.
RECORDS FOR THURSDAY 3/26:
CVG 82 SET IN 1907
DAY 81 SET IN 1907
CMH 80 SET IN 1907
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 40S, NEAR OR LOW 50S ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING, AND SATURDAY A BIT
MORE UNIFORM WITH READINGS 1-2 DEG ON EITHER SIDE OF 50.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND TAP INTO THE UNUSUALLY WARM AND MOIST AIR AHEAD OF IT TO
CREATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES. LLVL 850 JET
50-60KT WILL PEAK 00Z-03Z FRI IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF SVR THREAT AS THERE IS NO UPPER
TROUGH OR DEEP LOW. SOME MODELS ARE NOTING POCKETS OF HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS IN THIS JET, BUT THIS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE AS I
CAN SEE ATTM. DECENT H5 S/W ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE WLY FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SOME STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO BECOME SEVERE
IN RESULTING CONVECTIVE BANDS. DISCRETE CELLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PRESENT A LARGE HAIL THREAT, BUT THIS SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE
EVOLUTION AND NORTH OF THE CWA. IF STORMS POP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OR
THE FRONT COMES IN EARLIER /IT'S BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER/ THEN
THOSE THAT PRESENT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO POSE A TORNADIC
THREAT AS WELL. THIS IS ENTIRELY CONDITIONAL ON SEVERAL ATTRIBUTES
LINING UP WHICH WHILE POSSIBLE, IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY, AT LEAST THIS FAR
OUT IN TIME.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTH AROUND 10KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WIND WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
CVG/DAY, WITH A DROP OF A FEW KTS IN THE EVENING AT ILN.
CMH/LCK/LUK WILL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING TO UNDER 10KT AND MAINTAIN
THAT LOWER VALUE THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONSTITUTE A BKN DECK AT TIMES, AND HEIGHT OF THE
CLOUD LAYERS WILL WAFFLE BETWEEN 12 AND 25KFT.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ESE THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THURS,
WHICH CLIPS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR TAF AT CVG. THERE MAY BE EMBEDDED
THUNDER WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. LINGERING
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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