985
FXUS61 KILN 221129
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
629 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY MODERATING
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WARMER PATTERN DEVELOPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK AND
BEYOND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AREA-WIDE AS THE STRATUS DECK HAS PULLED AWAY
TO THE E. STARRY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS (COURTESY OF A MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE) MOVE BACK IN FROM THE SW THROUGH SUNRISE AND
BEYOND.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS (WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN RURAL/SHELTERED/LOW-LYING AREAS)
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS AROUND DAYBREAK. BUT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE A CLEARING TREND DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY
EVENING, LEADING TO INCREASINGLY SUNNY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY TO OUT IN THE LOWER 30S (NEAR/N
OF I-70) TO AROUND 40 DEGREES (S OF THE OH RVR). SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS WELL AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE TN VLY. A MIX OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY,
BUT PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION,
PARTICULARLY S OF I-70.
TEMPS TONIGHT DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES AMIDST MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SW FLOW BEFORE REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ON SUNDAY EVENING, A REGIME OF SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST, AS
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE. THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL INITIALLY BE BETWEEN THE ACTIVE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS, BUT EVENTUALLY, THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL BRING SOME WEATHER INTO THE AREA.
THE GENERAL PATTERN ALOFT EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE FOR PROGRESSIVE
WNW FLOW, WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BRING SOME 25-30 MPH WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE LIKELY TO BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA. IT IS INTERESTING THAT
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS QUITE DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND THUS PRODUCES MORE
PRECIPITATION. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DO LEAN TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL
RUNS, BUT DEFINITELY SEEM TO BOTH FALL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUN SCENARIOS. POPS WILL BE KEPT FAIRLY LOW, BUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY.
THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MEAN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ON
MONDAY, UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY, AND LOWER 50S TO AROUND
60 ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES AND TIMING) TO THE AREA. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SYSTEMS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT
ALL IN ALL, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS FILTERING BACK IN FROM THE W, WITH
BKN/OVC 10KFT-12KFT CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME, ALONGSIDE A FEW/SCT BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
CU/STRATOCU DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF MVFR CIGS, BUT HAVE KEPT THESE OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN COVERAGE OF THE CU/STRATOCU.
SKIES WILL TREND CLEARER ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY BY 00Z, WITH
JUST A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LIGHT SSW FLOW AROUND 5KTS WILL GO MORE OUT OF THE SW AT
10-12KTS DURING THE DAYTIME BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 5KTS ONCE
AGAIN PAST 00Z.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...KC
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