007
FXUS61 KILN 131803
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
203 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND GUSTY WINDS.
2) COOLER WEATHER AND FROST POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOME MID LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIDES EAST ALONG IT.
FINALLY, A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL HELP CARVE OUT A SHARP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING PWS, CLIMBING INTO THE 2-2.25 INCH RANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAINING HIGH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND FORCING,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
WARM DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S NORTH TO THE MID 80S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OR SO, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL FLOW, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, SO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS,
BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON HOW WELL WE ARE
ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH PWS.
INITIALLY, STORMS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO STALL OUT, SOME TRAINING
STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP, LEADING TO SOME POTENTIAL FLOODING
CONCERNS HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK
TO THE NORTH. GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT SO IF WE
ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, GOOD LOW
LEVEL CAA WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN. IN ADDITION, THE STRONG CAA WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 40 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN FALLING OUT OF A MID LAYER DECK MAY AFFECT THE
CENTRAL OHIO TAFS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP A BIT BUT MAY GO
LIGHT ENOUGH IN THE RIVER VALLEYS TO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
TAIL END OF THE 30 HOUR KCVG TAF.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
WINDS LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
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