624
FXUS61 KILN 271726
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
126 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
2) THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RETURNS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CROSSES NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. FLOW WILL THEN BECOME PRIMARILY ZONAL UNTIL LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE SATURDAY. THEN AN UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEFINITIVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ALSO BRING THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF ANY RAINFALL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING OVER TIME. SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL CAUSE A FRONT TO LAY OUT AND SAG ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ANY
PRECIPITATION. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL ALSO
BE MILDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH READINGS NEARLY 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS SPREAD IN
AMPLITUDE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPER MOISTURE, SO RAIN WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE AREA, POSSIBLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT MOSTLY
FOCUSED ON SUNDAY. SOME RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY, DEPENDING ON
THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF A TRAILING TROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT,
CLEARING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS
THAN 10 KT, TURNING SOUTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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