319
FXUS61 KILN 170619
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
219 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP US DESTABILIZE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT WITH THE SOMEWHAT FASTER TIMING, THE
BETTER INSTABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAKENING AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE STORMS WILL THEN BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE MORE FAVORABLE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS
HEADING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY OUR EASTERN AREAS BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
STRONG CAA WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS TO
START THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GENERALLY
IN THE 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S,LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY MAKE A RUN AT CMH/LCK THIS
MORNING, BUT DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS AND MID-HIGH CLOUDS THIS FAR
SOUTH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL. MAINTAINED TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 10-13Z, BUT TRENDED TOWARD HIGH-END MVFR GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BY MID
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS AND VEERING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...GUSEMAN
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