624
FXUS61 KILN 021031
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
631 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN OHIO
THROUGH THE SCIOTO AND HOCKING VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT AS WELL.
3) SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MIDWEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN OHIO
THROUGH THE SCIOTO AND HOCKING VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY DROP INTO THE MID 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME VALLEY AREAS DROPPING BELOW
30 IF CLOUD CONDITIONS ALLOW. THIN CIRRUS INCHING SLIGHTLY NORTH FROM
KY MAY MITIGATE THIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA, WITH THICKER MID
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST OVER THE MID/LOWER SCIOTO VALLEY AND HOCKING VALLEY, WITH SOME
LIGHT FOG ALSO POSSIBLE HERE.
WITH THE HIGH CLOSER TO THE MID OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY AND CLEARER SKIES, WIDESPREAD FROST AND POSSIBLE FREEZING
CONDITIONS LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE. CURRENT THINKING IS TO ISSUE
FROST/POSSIBLE FREEZE HEADLINES ONCE THE EXISTING FROST ADVISORY
EXPIRES.
KEY MESSAGE 2)SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MIDWEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
WEAK INSTABILITY WORKS INTO THE REGION AS THE HIGH EXITS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
FORCING AND INSTABILITY RELATIVELY WEAK, SO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE
INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. AT THIS TIME, NOT
SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR REPEATED FROST, AS CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT UNDER THE TROUGH PATTERN.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AREAS OF BR STAYING MOSTLY WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF TAF LOCATIONS, WITH
THIN CI CONTINUING TO SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA. MID CLOUDS SHOULD
EXPAND DIURNALLY, RESULTING IN VFR BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS, WITH NW
WIND INCREASING TO NEAR 10KTS.
BETTER CHANCE OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO SKC CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. AFTER 06Z, RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AND NEARLY CALM WIND BEINGS TO PICK UP A BIT, SO HAVE
HELD OF ON MENTION OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KLUK DUE TO INCREASED SW
FLOW.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...JDR
AVIATION...JDR
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