927
FXUS61 KILN 182352
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
752 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED TO TWEAK MONDAY/TUESDAY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD
FROM BLENDED SOLUTION. INCREASED PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM BLENDED SOLUTIONS, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
2) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID-UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE
MITIGATED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NORTHWEST TO
AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY,
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE, SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING TOWARDS OR PERHAPS A BIT
PAST MIDNIGHT.
A GREATER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, WITH MAIN TIMING FROM 19-06Z, THOUGH MARGINAL
CONFIDENCE IN ESPECIALLY ONSET TIME WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM THE
CAMS. SEVERAL OF THE CAMS RAMPING UP SBCAPE VALUES TO 2500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
INCREASES TO BETWEEN 20-25KTS, BUT CAM SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW PRETTY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT,
WITH DCAPES RAMPING UP TO 900+ J/KG. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHERN OHIO/LOWER MICHIGAN.
WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PWATS RAMPING UP TO 1.6-1.8",
HREF LPMM 24 HOUR QPF POTENTIAL OF 2 TO 2.5" POSSIBLE, SO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING, THOUGH GREATER HEAVY RAIN
THREAT REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KCVG/KLUK TO KDAY TO START THE
TAF PERIOD. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT IT COULD MAKE IT TO KILN BEFORE DOING SO. AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION DISSIPATES, WILL JUST BE LEFT WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
IF THERE ARE SUFFICIENT BREAKS, THEN SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG MAY OCCUR AT KLUK.
FOR TUESDAY, FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST OVER 20 KT AGAIN FROM ABOUT 15Z ONWARDS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FAIR
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP, BUT GREATER PROBABILITY
THROUGH 0Z LOOKS TO BE KCVG/KLUK TO KDAY AT THIS POINT.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDR
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page