234
FXUS61 KILN 271753
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1253 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
READINGS SOARING TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST US LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS TODAY, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER REGION. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST MEANS THAT THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS DURING THE MORNING ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.
OVERNIGHT, THE WARM FRONT THAT IS SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WHILE THE COVERAGE IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN, DENSE FOG IS A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
INDIANA AND OHIO, AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, SOME FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE, IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING. THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE STATE OF OHIO, WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING AN IMPRESSIVE WARM UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AREA WIDE.
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE, SOME SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES, BUT OVERALL, THE FORECAST INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES.
RECORD HIGHS FOR 12/28:
CVG 67 IN 1984 CMH 68 IN 1984 DAY 64 IN 1984
IN ADDITION TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES, A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DEEPER MIXING
HEIGHTS SO WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY CAPPED IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.
SEVERE THREAT: A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE
FOR THE COLD FRONT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES IN SUNDAY EVENING AND MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE THUNDERSTORM LINE OF CONCERN IS LIKELY TO BE ITS MOST
ORGANIZED/STRONGEST OVER INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. DURING THAT TIME FRAME, SOME INSTABILITY IS PRESENT,
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS THE
LINE APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM, THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY BECOMES EVEN MORE NEGLIGIBLE, LIKELY LIMITING THE AMOUNT
OF THUNDER (IF ANY) WITHIN THE LINE. DESPITE THIS, THE FRONT IS STILL
VERY ORGANIZED, WITH A WELL DEFINED PRESSURE TROUGH. THIS COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE LINE OF
HEAVY SHOWERS/DOWNPOURS MOVES THROUGH.
AFTER THE SEVERE THREAT, TEMPERATURES PLUMMET QUICKLY AS BLUSTERY
WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE LINE
BEFORE A GENERAL LULL TO 25 TO 35 MPH. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN
THROUGHOUT MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MONDAY,
CONTINUED DROPPING TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY CREATING
POTENTIAL SLICK CONDITIONS, SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
SHOT OF SNOW LATE NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY, AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS, DROPPING TEMPERATURES, AND POTENTIAL SLICK SPOTS. WITH
THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S AND THEN DROPPING THE REST OF THE
WAY INTO THE 20S DURING THE DAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS
THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SLICK SPOTS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE. WIND GUSTS
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL AND
INCREASED WIND GUSTS AGAIN DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST 40
TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. WITH THE WINDS AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN, SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY, THERE ARE
STILL ENOUGH SIGNALS TO INCREASE SNOWFALL CHANCES BACK INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME IN ORDER TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF
THIS FEATURE. THE COOL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THIS EXPECTED SNOW AND
CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE 20S TO AROUND FREEZING ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STILL DEALING WITH A MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CVG/LUK. THIS IS ALREADY STARTING TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH DO THE IMPROVEMENTS MAKE IT
BEFORE RESTRICTIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. ADDITIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE TAF. BETWEEN 11Z-15Z, SOME FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH
THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN LOWER VIS REMAINS AT DAY WITH MVFR VIS ELSEWHERE.
AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS BEING MENTIONED. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
REMNANT CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THESE LIMITED UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AFTER 00Z MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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