124
FXUS61 KILN 261033
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR STORMS HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH US WITH A BAND OF
WESTERLIES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THRU THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK EMBEDDED
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO TRACK THRU THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. IN
THE HUMID AIRMASS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL WITH BEST
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH - CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS - MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 COULD
PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH - DUE TO LACK OF A FORCING MECHANISM CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH. THE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY SOUTH OF
I-70.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LACK OF FORCING ONGOING CONVECTION TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
(CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY) OVERNIGHT. WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY DROP TO LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH FLOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND ITS PERIPHERY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY. EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
AGAIN EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN TO THE RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S TO THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH 100 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD AND STORM
COVERAGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST WITH THE ILN CWA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE. THIS CONTINUES THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AROUND THE
REGION. SHOULD NOTE THAT THE BLEND TDS CONTINUE TO BE TOO HIGH AND
HAVE COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO LOWER THESE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE START OF THE WORKING WEEK. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THIS TWEAK,
APPARENT TS STILL FORECAST TO BE AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF THE WORKING WEEK. DIURNAL POPS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME AND WITH THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS,
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON A LARGER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH CANADA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MID WEEK. DESPITE BEING PRETTY FAR DISPLACED FROM THE PARENT
LOW, THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE POTENT ENOUGH IN TERMS OF DRIVING
DRY AIR DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A
REPRIEVE FROM THE HUMIDITY NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. RIGHT NOW,
BLEND KEEPS A WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS IN WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THIS FROPA, SO WE'LL EXPECT TO BE DEALING WITH AT
LEAST SOME CONVECTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT WILL WAIT FOR LATER
RUNS TO GET MORE DETAILS ON TIMING/PLACEMENT.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF STORMS. SOME
EARLY MORNING MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR FOG AT KLUK WILL IMPROVE
QUICKLY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. DUE TO A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY
PARTICULAR TIMING, PROB30S CURRENTLY OUTLINE THE GENERAL THREAT FROM
16Z-02Z. COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE MORE THAN WE OBSERVED
YESTURDAY.
DIUNRALLY DRIVEN STORMS DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 8-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY,
PEAKING IN ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
INZ058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR
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