216
FXUS61 KILN 031849
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
249 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE THREAT FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BRINGING AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION, PEAKING ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ONCE
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER,
ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO LATE IN THE DAY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AND
AS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TRACKS FURTHER EAST EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AND MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT INTO ILN/S SOUTHWEST AT THE NOSE OF A 40-45KT
8H JET. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER
ACROSS ILN/S SOUTHWEST COUNTIES - WHICH THEN TRACKING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT A LOW IN PCPN ACTIVITY
MID MORNING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY 8H JET OF
40-45KT JET ADVECTING FAVORABLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE INCREASES THE
FORCING APPEARS TO BE RATHER DIFFUSE AND WEAK. MODEL SOLUTIONS -
ESPECIALLY THE CAM/S SOLUTIONS DIFFER GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING. GIVEN
LOW END MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT - CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO THE EVENING WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND.
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
ZONAL MID LEVEL BACKS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DIGS
SOUTH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT MIDWEEK. A
SURFACE FRONT WHICH MOVES INTO ILN/S AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON SLOWS
DOWN AS WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MOST FAVORED RAIN POTENTIAL IS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION SERVES
AS A FOCAL AREA FOR A WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, ALONG WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF > 1" OF RAIN RAMP UP TO 80 PERCENT OR MORE
ESPECIALLY IN THE TRI STATE, WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF 2" OF RAIN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS REACH 150-160% OF NORMAL FOR
EARLY MAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM
FLOODING, THOUGH WITH THE SEASONAL TRANSITION INTO EARLY MAY, 1-2"
OVER 24 HOURS MAY NOT POSE AN ISSUE. WILL HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE
ON AMOUNTS AND TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT COMES INTO THE RANGE OF
THE CAMS.
AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS LEADING TO CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY AND AS THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
TRACKS FURTHER EAST - SO EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE. AT
THIS TIME HAVE LIMITED THE MENTION OF RAIN TO A PROB30 SHOWER AT
KDAY FOR A FEW HOURS.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AND MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT INTO ILN/S SOUTHWEST AT THE NOSE OF A 40-45KT
8H JET. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER
ACROSS ILN/S SOUTHWEST COUNTIES - WHICH THEN TRACK ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE LIMITED THE MENTION OF
PCPN TO A PROB30 AT KCVG AND KLUK LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CAN
NOT RULE OUT THUNDER DUE TO MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT AT THIS
TIME HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO SHOWERS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE
AND PLACEMENT.
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTH ON MONDAY SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEYOND THE TAF TIME FRAME.
A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
TAF SITES IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS REDEVELOP ON
MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR
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