938
FXUS61 KILN 210308
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1008 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY, WITH DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING BY MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
MOST OF THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW,
ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS. LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING
ACROSS THE EAST. WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S. WINDS ARE GUSTING
AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH IN SPOTS AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO DECREASE.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL START TO BREAK UP SOME TOWARDS THE END OF
THE NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ON SATURDAY, A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS REGION OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE ILN CWA, WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY AT ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS. THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY, THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN
DIURNAL CLOUD COVER BY 15Z-18Z AT THE TOP OF A WELL-MIXED LAYER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WITH QUIET CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT,
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST COLD DAY BEFORE A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP
OCCURS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FOR SUNDAY, FORECAST HIGHS
REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS DROP
INTO THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE HIGH STILL EXERTS IT'S
INFLUENCE.
ON MONDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LIFTING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. FROPA IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OCCURRING DURING
THE DAY. A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A
WEAK COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES SOUTH.
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO FEATURE LOW END RAIN
CHANCES WITH A STALLED FRONT REMAINING NEAR OR IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. DETAILS SURROUNDING EXACT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME DUE TO FORCING BE WEAK. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR MILD, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF WORK WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS REACH THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE VFR CIGS RETURN LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...
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