114
FXUS61 KILN 152241
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING
FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES LATER ON
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE FIRST LOW FORMS ON
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A WEAK,
TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE FIRST LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR GREATER STORM
COVERAGE AND STRONGER STORMS IS NORTHWEST OF I-71 TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO BETTER FORCING AND AND STRONGER SHEAR.
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT
THIS LOW BEING ANOMALOUSLY DEEP FOR MID JUNE ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS STRONG LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO
IMPACTFUL WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE FORM OF SEVERE
WEATHER, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE DEEPENING LOW ENTERS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY
STRONG SHEAR AND STRUNG OUT HODOGRAPHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE
WHILE DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IF STORMS DO END UP FORMING ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE WARM
SECTOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANY MODE OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
COULD OCCUR AS PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2+ INCHES ARE LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE STORM THREAT PERSISTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE
WARM SECTOR. AT THIS TIME, IT IS NOT CLEAR YET IF STORMS WILL OCCUR
AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT. THIS LEANS TOWARDS
THE SEVERE THREAT BEING CONDITIONAL ON STORM OCCURRENCE.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR SOME POINT ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE STRONG LOW PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUFFICIENT SHEAR,
INSTABILITY, AND PWATS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE AND FLOODING
RISK UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. HOWEVER, THIS IS ALL CONTINGENT ON TRACK OF
THE LOW, POSITIONS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES, AND ANTECEDENT CONVECTION.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT DETAILS THAT NEED TO BE WORKED OUT, GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND
THE DEEP LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME RIVER VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLUK.
ON TUESDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH
SOME 15-20 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE. LATE IN THE DAY SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS
LOW, SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR SHOWERS AT KDAY (PRIOR TO
00Z) AND AT KCVG (AFTER 00Z) FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...HATZOS
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