401
FXUS61 KILN 041049
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS MID-WEEK WITH A RETURN OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL TO BRING NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY. ON
WEDNESDAY, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE FOUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. MID
LEVEL VORTICITY WILL BE FOUND ALONGSIDE IT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE SE CWA
BUT MORE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN SCIOTO RIVER VALLEY. ADJUSTED POPS TO
BE CAPPED AT CHANCE, WHICH WAS A QUITE MINOR CHANGE.
BY THURSDAY, A LARGER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
DRAG A LONG, TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL OUT JUST WEST OF OUR CWA, PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT REGARDING HOW THINGS
WILL PROGRESS, BUT BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND LARGE
SCALE FLOW, TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD INTRODUCE A FLOODING THREAT.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND WITH A LIGHT NE WIND TURNING NLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. DID NOT ADD ANY LINES TO THE TERMINALS TO ANNOTATE A 040
WIND AT 4-5KT TURNING NORTH AND DECREASING IN SPEED LATE IN THE DAY
OR EARLY EVENING. USED THE DAYTIME "STRONGER" SPEEDS.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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