430
FXUS61 KPBZ 162345
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
745 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT TEMPERATURES COULD IMPACT HEAT-SENSITIVE POPULATIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) SEVERE CHANCES PERSIST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HEIGHT RISES UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH A RIDGE BREAKDOWN FAVORED SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ALONG A WARMING TREND. THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
PROBABILISTIC ENVELOPE, WHILE A NON-BC MODEL LIKE THE LREF SHOWS
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ARE GENERALLY FAVORED FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE MAIN DEVIATIONS WOULD BE MID- TO-LOW 80S FAVORED
NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF PA/WV, AND PERHAPS A
FEW 90F READINGS FOR URBANIZED VALLEY LOCATIONS. OF COURSE,
TEMPERATURES MAY UNDERPREFORM IF STORMS ARE PRESENT (MOST LIKELY
INTO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
IN ACCORDANCE WITH PRIOR SHIFTS, TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NBM WARM
BIAS, TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS IN THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY PERIOD, AS WELL AS MONDAY
NIGHT.
HEAT RISK CONTINUES TO SHOW MOSTLY MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS THE
AREA, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO AFFECTS FOR SENSITIVE POPULATIONS AND
THOSE WITHOUT COOLING AND HYDRATION. BE SURE TO MONITOR FOR
SIGNS OF HEAT ILLNESS IF YOU ARE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE, AND
HYDRATE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OUTDOORS. WHILE MID-DAY MONDAY IS
MOST LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST PERIOD, CUMULATIVE HEAT IMPACTS
PEAK ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON MONDAY, IF THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE INTO THE LOW LEVELS WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ON THE
RIDGETOP IN A HIGH-DCAPE ENVIRONMENT, DOWNBURST WIND CHANCES
COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS LOW PROBABILITY
FOR NOW. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. CHANCES ARE
GENERALLY THE HIGHEST IN THE NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY,
AND SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROGRESSION TO
THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT (AS INDICATED BY CIPS AND
VARIOUS ML MODELS). AS WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME RIDGE BREAKDOWN
EVENTS, THE EXACT TIMING AND SCALE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
LOW PROBABILITY WITH A LOW-HORIZON ON TEMPORAL PREDICTABILITY.
WE'LL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDER POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF A DECAYING
MCS CROSS INTO THE REGION. LATEST HIRES MODEL TRENDS KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT, POSSIBLY IMPACTING MGW AFTER
AROUND 09-10Z. CARRIED PROB30S FOR PIT SOUTHWARDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SPATIAL AND TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR IFR
VSBY AT FKL/DUJ. CLEARING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN
CHANCE DECREASES.
OUTLOOK...
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND
RESTRICTIONS MAY ARRIVE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK
AVIATION...RACKLEY/SHALLENBERGER
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