184  
FXUS61 KPBZ 082317 CCA  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
717 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND WITH  
DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE. A MODERATE CHANCE FOR SOME MEASURABLE  
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. PATTERN VARIABILITY EXISTS  
AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S, WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FROST LIKELY  
NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH  
---------------------------------------------------------------  
 
EVENING UPDATE...  
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH DIURNAL CU  
DISSIPATING AND GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND PATCHY FROST, PRIMARILY NORTH AND  
EAST OF PITTSBURGH, IS STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY  
THURSDAY MORNING. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW FOR  
REFERENCE.  
 
PREVIOUS (AFTERNOON) DISCUSSION...  
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS REMAIN ACROSS THE  
REGION THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE  
DEPARTED COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INTERMITTENT  
SO FAR, BUT WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS INDICATED  
ON ACARS SOUNDINGS, STILL EXPECT SOME TO 20 TO 25 MPH PEAK  
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL COLLAPSE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL  
HEATING, WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DESPITE THE RAIN  
YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT, A DAY OF DRYING (AIDED BY WIND) AND  
FALLING DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT FOG TO A FEW ISOLATED VALLEYS  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH THE  
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK, MUCH  
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHEAST WIND  
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT  
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM BEING AS EFFICIENT AS IT COULD BE, AND  
COULD ALSO HINDER THE FORMATION OF DEW (AND THUS FROST) IN SOME  
CASES. STICKING WITH NBM MEAN LOW TEMPERATURE STILL SEEMS  
PRUDENT IN THIS SETUP. THE AREA WHERE VALUES IN THE LOWER AND  
MID 30S ARE EXPECTED, TO THE NORTH AND/OR EAST OF PITTSBURGH,  
STILL MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE EXISTING FROST ADVISORY AND WILL  
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THAT HEADLINE. STILL, AS SUGGESTED  
ABOVE, FROST MAY END UP BEING A BIT MORE PATCHY THAN ANYTHING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY  
- THURSDAY NIGHT'S LOWS MAY RESULT IN MORNING FROST OR FREEZING  
CONDITIONS  
- FRIDAY'S HIGH AROUND AVERAGE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S  
----------------------------------------------------------------  
 
DRY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES  
TO TRANSITION SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING  
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. DUE TO THE  
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE, CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED. EVEN WITH  
CLEAR SKIES, THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE  
LOW 60S WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-80 ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S.  
 
OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE (WARMING) EASTERLY WIND,  
HOWEVER, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE COOLER THAN TONIGHT.  
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST A 35% OR HIGHER PROBABILITY OF  
REACHING 32F IN AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-76. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN  
ISSUED FOR THE SAME AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE, AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH  
COULD POTENTIALLY NEED A FROST ADVISORY AS WELL.  
 
ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES. WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGHS ARE  
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, AROUND AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT  
INHIBITING EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER  
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY  
- TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F  
- PATTERN VARIABILITY EXISTS AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK  
-------------------------------------------------------------------  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. BY  
SATURDAY, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL  
BRING A MODERATE CHANCE (40%-50%) FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH SECOND UPPER-LEVEL  
OVER THE EAST COAST (ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD). THIS BRINGS A HIGHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE  
FORECAST FROM THERE ON OUT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS  
WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEAGER DECOUPLING  
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS MORE NNW OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING NW  
WITH MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH OVERNIGHT WINDS AND DRY  
AIR, CHANCES OF VIS OBSTRUCTION IN FOG AT ANY PORT IS <10%.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
VFR EXPECTED APART FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.  
CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING LOW LATE  
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-  
013>016-022-073>078.  
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING  
FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-022-073>078.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.  
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING  
FOR WVZ510>514.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...CL  
NEAR TERM...CERMAK/CL  
SHORT TERM...LUPO  
LONG TERM...LUPO  
AVIATION...MILCAREK  
 
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