161
FXUS61 KPBZ 190754
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
354 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2022
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE TODAY. THE NEXT
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A QUIET DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS AN UPPER RIDGE CROSSES
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
TERRAIN OF EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE DEVELOPS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
A NEW UPPER LOW WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, CARVING OUT A NEW TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH
WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY
ARRIVE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, FED BY
GENERALLY MODEST BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY. THE
RESULTING MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST FLOW, PLUS SUPPORT
FOR LIFT FROM SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH THE TROUGH, WILL BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUNDAY'S PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY, MEANING ANOTHER DAY
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.
THE TROUGH THEN SETS UP SHOP OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY/NORTHEAST CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS MODELS/ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A
DIURNAL CHARACTER, SIMILAR TO THE RECENT PATTERN, AGAIN WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY SCT AFTN CU THROUGH FRIDAY.
PATCHY PRE-DAWN FOG IS LIKELY GIVEN A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND,
BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC MOISTURE MEANS MOST IMPACTS WILL BE
SHORTER-LIVED AND RELEGATED TO TERMINALS ADJACENT RIVER
VALLEYS.
OUTLOOK
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PLUS POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page