119  
FXUS61 KPBZ 030543  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
143 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE FOURTH AND  
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.  
---------------------------------------------------------------  
 
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF MIXING THIS  
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT, GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND  
LIGHT TO CALM WIND. THIS EFFICIENT COOLING MIGHT SUGGEST LOWS  
AROUND AVERAGE, DROPPING TO NEAR DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS IN THE  
LOWER 60S AND UPPER 50S. AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH DEWS, FOG WILL  
BE POSSIBLE; MOST LIKELY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND SHELTERED  
SURROUNDING AREAS. FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY, MAINLY IN  
THE NORTHERN PA COUNTIES.  
- DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER FOR THE FOURTH.  
- TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  
 
----------------------------------------------------------------  
 
A TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT, IS EXPECTED TO TRACK  
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON THURSDAY. VERY  
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT UPDRAFT GROWTH, LIMITING THE  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE POSSIBLE (30%-45% CHANCE) OVER THE FOLLOWING PA COUNTIES:  
FOREST, VENANGO, BUTLER, EASTERN MERCER, CLARION, JEFFERSON,  
ARMSTRONG, INDIANA, AND NORTHEASTERN ALLEGHENY.  
 
GIVEN THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED CAPE, THERE  
WILL BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS IF MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS  
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE DOES MARGINALLY  
SUPPORT A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR THIS THREAT. ANY CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER  
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  
 
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL  
AVERAGE, WHILE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO  
BELOW AVERAGE.  
 
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE FOURTH WITH SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE AND RIDGING OVERHEAD. MODELS DO DEVELOP A FEW ISOLATED  
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OHIO, BUT THIS IS LIKELY TO  
REMAIN WEST OF COSHOCTON AND MUSKINGUM COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, THE  
FORECAST LOOKS GREAT FOR OUTDOOR PLANS AND EVENING FIREWORKS.  
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER  
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER  
80S OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL  
FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- DRY ON SATURDAY.  
- INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 
-------------------------------------------------------------------  
 
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY DRY AND  
WARM WEATHER AGAIN SATURDAY. RISING HEIGHTS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW  
SHOULD BOOST AREA HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F. NBM PROBS  
FOR 90F ARE HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN OHIO, NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA  
PANHANDLE, AND THE PITTSBURGH URBAN HEAT ISLAND (70%-85%). FOR OTHER  
AREAS, PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 35%-45% OR LOWER IN THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 
THE RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO FLATTEN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.  
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO  
PERIODICALLY CROSS THE REGION, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES RETURNING.  
 
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH  
590 DAM, BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH  
PROBABILITY (70%-90%) OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES  
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CHANCES OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA REMAIN  
LOW AS HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 90S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS EXPECTED MANY CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED AND LEFT US WITH LARGELY  
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR PREVAILING AT ALL PORTS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO BE  
THE RULE TODAY, WITH FEW EXCEPTIONS IN FOG THIS MORNING. FOG IS  
EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOST LIKELY  
IMPACTS BEING EAST OF PITTSBURGH. HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION FOR  
LBE AND LOWERED MGW FROM PREVAILING TO A TEMPO FOR ANY MVFR/IFR  
IMPACTS IN FOG THIS MORNING.  
 
VALLEY FOG IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY 13Z, WITH SCATTERED  
TO BROKEN VFR CU REPLACING IT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY POP ALONG A COLD  
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT POPS  
REMAIN RATHER LOW. DUJ MAINTAINS THE GREATEST CHANCE TO SEE STORMS  
AND HAVE CONTINUED THEIR PROB30. FKL AND LBE WOULD BE THE NEXT MOST  
LIKELY IMPACTED PORTS BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE TAF  
MENTION.  
 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A  
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION UNDER 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK... VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES  
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ISOLATED  
RESTRICTIONS POTENTIALLY RETURNING MONDAY.
 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY/LUPO  
NEAR TERM...MILCAREK  
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY/LUPO  
LONG TERM...RACKLEY/LUPO  
AVIATION...AK  
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