667
FXUS61 KPBZ 221747
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
147 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FRONT THAT HAS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH IS FORECAST TO START
MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT EARLY TOMORROW EVENING BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) CONTINUED WARM WITH PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. STRONGER COLD FRONT POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
OH. A LOW TO MID LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTERACT WITH INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN OHIO TO
DEVELOP TH CAPE WHICH IS HOW THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG WITH MINIMAL LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR COULD IN A DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUSKINGUM AND COSHOCTON COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF
WINDOW LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNING'S SHOWERS WILL STALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA/SOUTHERN OH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TONIGHT, A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED TO THE SOUTH. BY THURSDAY EVENING, THE BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WEAK ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT.
A QUASI ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS BY
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW, AND A SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT, IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
(ML CAPE <500 J/KG) WITH MINIMAL SHEAR AS WELL. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS IN HOW FAST THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IF THE FASTER SCENARIOS WERE TO HAPPEN, POPS
COULD BE FURTHER REDUCED IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A STRONGER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH READINGS
GENERALLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND IS SHIFTING TO A WNW DIRECTION, GUSTING TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20
KNOTS, BEHIND A WEAK AND WAVY SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKING
SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAY FORM
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I-70. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S AT HLG, MGW, AND ZZV WHERE
CHANCES OF OCCURRENCE ARE BEST, WITH THUNDER MENTIONED AT ZZV
AND MGW WHERE BUOYANCY IS HIGHER. ANY ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE BRIEF, AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
AFTER CONVECTION WANES AFTER 02Z, WIND GOES LIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL MVFR STRATUS LATE TONIGHT - THINK THIS IS
MOST LIKELY WHERE RAIN OCCURS LATER TODAY, AND HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR CEILINGS WHERE THE PROB30S WERE USED. CONFIDENCE IN LOWER
CEILINGS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ELSEWHERE FOR INCLUSION AT THIS
TIME. PAST SUNRISE, ANY STRATUS WILL LIFT INTO A VFR CUMULUS
DECK BY MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS FAVORED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AND RESTRICTIONS BACK TO THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM/LUPO
AVIATION...CL
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