844
FXUS61 KPBZ 261756
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
156 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AND KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2) BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY MAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST. BY EARLY TUESDAY,
THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ALONG THE EASTER SEABOARD. DUE TO THIS SETUP, PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT,
HOWEVER, THERE IS LIMITED INSTABILITY REDUCING ANY LIKELIHOOD FOR
HAIL/STRONG WIND. ADVANCING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LIKELY REDUCE
PRECIP CHANCES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.
A NEW DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
LATE TUESDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
DURING LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY, THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, SOME
SMALL HAIL AND MODERATELY GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OF THE TWO SYSTEMS, WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WETTER PERIOD.
THE PROBABILITY OF OF RECEIVING MORE THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
IS AROUND 60%-80% ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, COMPARED
TO ROUGHLY 35%-45% ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A COOLER START TO MAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST, PROMOTING A COLD-AIR ADVECTION ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF MAY ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, RESULTING
IN LOWS IN THE 30S. THE RISK FOR FROST AND/OR FREEZING CONDITIONS IS
INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION, MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGES AND
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. AT THIS TIME, FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE AREAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND BREAK THIS
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME MIXING MAXIMIZES AND AS DRY ADVECTION
CONTINUES, WITH ALL SITES ACHIEVING VFR BY 20Z. THEREAFTER, VFR
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ONLY
CIRRUS SPILLING OVER AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. LIGHT EAST
WIND THROUGH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY VEER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
MIDDAY MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS (AND LOW PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORMS)
RETURN TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
TRENDS TOWARD GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGHING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/LUPO
AVIATION...CL
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