123
FXUS61 KPBZ 170425
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1225 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS DUE
TO THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD BRING RAPID
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND ROAD CONDITIONS. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR RIDGES AND ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR IS UNCHANGED AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EXTENDED THROUGH 4AM THROUGH THE LOWLANDS AND LASTING
THROUGH 5PM FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
2) MILDER CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION, AND
TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS IN WESTERLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES.
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER ALSO MAXES OUT AROUND 6-7 UNITS TUESDAY
MORNING, INDICATING WE COULD SEE SQUALLS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WOULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS OF
SNOW TOTALS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TRENDED UP AGAIN WITH THE 12Z CYCLE, WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW REACHING 75 PERCENT
OR GREATER ACROSS NORTHERN WV, AND WRN PA. THOSE PROBABILITIES
DECREASE FARTHER WEST. INTER-QUARTILE RANGES FOR THE SAME AREA
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES, AND IT IS EXPECTED SOME MAY SEE
A LOCALIZED 3+ INCHES UNDER SNOW BANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST THREE INCHES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF
I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES. WITH UPWARD TRENDS AND BETTER CONFIDENCE
IN EARLIER ACCUMULATION THIS EVENING, HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND ALL OF THE RIDGES
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TUCKER
COUNTY, WV, WHERE RIDGETOPS MAY EXCEED 6 INCHES.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ONLY 25 TO 30
DEG ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT,
GRADUALLY RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL BRING PERIODIC, MAINLY RAIN, CHANCES
TO THE REGION FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF IFR AND BELOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SNOW IS LIKELY TO HAVE ENDED AFTER, SCATTERED SNOW
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS COLD UPPER TROUGHING
CROSSES THE REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE GIVES A 50-70% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COLD AIR
STRATOCU REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WELL MIXED, WITH W TO WNW GUSTS REACHING
30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...DRY AND MAINLY VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN UPSTREAM IN THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH CLOUDS BUT THE SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT INTO UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANGES AND PERHAPS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY FALL AS RAIN
IF IT DOES OCCUR.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073-075.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ007>009-015-016-074-076>078.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ040-041-049-050-059-069.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/LUPO
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER/88
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