895
FXUS61 KPBZ 021202
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR WV AND PA RIDGES FOR SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 THIS
MORNING
2) FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT / TUESDAY MORNING
3) UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER BY WEEKS END
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 500MB AND 40
KNOTS AT 700MB OWING TO A FASTER PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA.
THUS, THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE MINOR GIVEN LESS TIME
ACCUMULATE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE IN THE LOW LANDS
THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT/UPSLOPE, THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES HAVE A POTENTIAL OF
REACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES DUE TO SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES,
ADDITIONAL LIFT, AND PLACEMENT OF THE BAND. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE WV RIDGES. TO BOOT, THE PROBS
OF EXCEEDANCE WITH 3 INCHES CROSS 70% IN TUCKER COUNTY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE
SNOW CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WARM NOSE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THIS WILL FEATURE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS, IT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE WARM NOSE TO
DEVELOP. AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD, FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE LAURELS AND FURTHER NORTH INTO JEFFERSON COUNTY. HERE IN
THE HIGHER, OR SLIGHT HIGHER TERRAIN, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLIGHTLY BE COOLER ALLOWING FREEZING RAIN FOR A LONGER DURATION.
THUS, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUE FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE LAURELS AND JEFFERSON COUNTY.
THE HREF IN GETTING THE NEW HI-RES DATA CLOSE TO THE EVENT
GIVES PROB OF RECEIVING GREATER THAN A 0.01 OF FREEZING RAIN AT
OVER 80% IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVING SOME VALIDATION TO THE
NEED OF A HEADLINE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FROM 03Z TONIGHT
THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION, AND A PERSISTENT
GULF MOISTURE FETCH WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETUP OVER THE SE CONUS.
THIS WILL POSE A POSSIBLE FLOODING THREAT AS WELL THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLES IN THE COMING DAYS.
LATEST 7 DAY WPC QPF TOTALS SHOW BETWEEN 2.5" AND 3" OF
ACCUMULATED QPF BY NEXT SUNDAY IN THIS PATTERN. 5 DAY TOTALS
AVERAGE AROUND 2.25" ACROSS THE REGION. ANALOGS SUPPORT THIS WET
PATTERN AND ALSO THE LATE WEEK SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT.
500MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE AS HIGH AS 578DM BY FRIDAY SO
RECORD HIGHS AND OR HIGH MINS COULD BE CHALLENGED. LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CHANCE OF RECORD HIGHS AT KPIT RANGING
ANYWHERE FROM 30-60% THE 6TH THROUGH THE 10TH.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS BRINGING SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS A
CORRIDOR FROM ZZV TO MGW. SOME OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE IN BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW AT MGW AROUND MID MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT ZZV AND MGW WHERE MORE FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEFT BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.
STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOUTH OF FKL AND DUJ THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH RAIN EXPECTED SOUTH OF A PHD-
PIT-LBE LINE. INCLUDED MAINLY RAIN AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR AIRPORTS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
FAST TEMPERATURES RISE AS THE PRECIP LIFTS NORTH. MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES PIT WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING, THOUGH WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE RISE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR
FREEZING RAIN AT PIT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH PHD-PIT-LBE.
OUTLOOK...
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BVI, FKL AND DUJ
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE DAY. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND
RESTRICTIONS ARE THEN LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
STALLS AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ016-074-076>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ512-514.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...WM/LUPO
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