726  
FXUS61 KPBZ 240755  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
355 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE  
GREAT LAKES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
HEIGHT RISES, AND A SURFACE HIGH, WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY. NORTHWEST  
FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TONIGHT, AS THE REGION RESTS ON THE  
NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING EASTERN CONUS RIDGE. A SERIES OF UPPER  
LEVEL WAVES, MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FIND ITS  
WAY THROUGH THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL  
INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BOOST AS  
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE REGION REMAINS WELL  
ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR, MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TO  
LIMIT CONVECTION UNTIL THE TROUGH ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY. UPPER  
LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING SO ANY  
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, MODELS  
ARE HINTING AT A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE  
REGION SUNDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL AND  
ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY WILL SPRINT TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST AND MOVE  
EASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED  
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL WORK TO MAINTAIN DECREASING 500MB HEIGHTS, AND THE  
STALLED FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY DIRECTED TOWARD NORTHERN WV SUNDAY  
EVENING. THIS MOVEMENT WILL FORCE THE MIDWEST SURFACE LOW TO DRIFT  
SOUTHWARD AS WELL. THIS SETUP WOULD PROMOTE A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THAT WILL DRIFT  
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE  
EASTERN CONUS RIDGE. THE AREA WILL LIE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF  
SAID RIDGE, MEANING THE WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.  
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD  
AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS QUICKLY PASS OUR CWA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKY AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WIND. STRONGER WIND WILL LIKELY  
MIX DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME, RESULTING IN GUSTS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF  
20 MPH.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A  
FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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