239
FXUS61 KPBZ 071848
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
148 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY, BEFORE RAIN RETURNS SUNDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT ,
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS AND GUSTY WIND RETURN TODAY
---------------------------------------------------------------
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS
THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER EASTWARD, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250MB JET, RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL ASCENT. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE
AREA AS STRIKES WERE SEEN ALONG THE LINE ALL THE WAY UP TO LAKE
ERIE IN THE CURRENT SITUATION. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME STRIKES
FURTHER SOUTH. THUS, THE HREF PROBS GIVE ABOUT 30% TO 40% FOR
GREATER THAN 250 J/KG BUT THIS TRAILS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF
I-70. PLENTY OF SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE, THOUGH
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO RESULT IN A SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER THOUGH, THE MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN
WITH ROUGHLY 35 TO 40 KNOTS ABOVE THE MORNING INVERSION AND THE
NBM PROBS TODAY GAVE 60% TO 80% FOR WIND GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 MPH
BUT ONCE AGAIN TRAILS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FOR GREATER THAN 45 MPH
FOR THE LOWER TERRAIN. THERE STILL REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR
CONSISTENT GUSTS OVER 45 MPH. SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IS A WARM
LAYER OFF THE SURFACE THAT FOR THE MOST PART, WILL KEEP THE
STRONGEST WIND ALOFT FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE TODAY. CURRENTLY
EXPECT GUSTS FROM 30-35 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY.
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
EXITS, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
- COLDER WITH RAIN MIXING WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
----------------------------------------------------------------
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT
THE SFC, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM IL/IN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY MID SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOSEST TO THE LAKES FIRST, NEAR THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES THEN RAMP UP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TRAVERSES THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND DRAGS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION.
AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL FROM HIGHS NEAR THE MIDDLE 50S IN
COLD ADVECTION.
SOME DECREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AFTER FROPA. TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT AS RAIN MIXES WITH AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW. WITH WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES AND PRIOR RAINFALL SUNDAY, ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS (A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH) ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE
ON MONDAY, MAINLY ON GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- MUCH COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
- ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES
- UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH
-------------------------------------------------------------------
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERNS BETWEEN THE GEFS AND THE EURO
THAT WOULD MEAN DIFFERENT DURATIONS OF NW FLOW AND THUS
DIFFERING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE THESE
DIFFERENCES, THE PICTURE REMAINS THE SAME THAT NW FLOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OH VALLEY.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN -8 TO -10
DEG C BY MONDAY, WHILE LAKE ERIE TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND +12
TO +14 DEG C. LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY
INTO PORTIONS OF MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
FLOW BACKS TO THE W AND THE MOST EFFICIENT LAKE AND TERRAIN
ENHANCEMENT IS TURNED NORTH OF THE REGION. MESOSCALE FEATURES
(SUCH AS A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH) WILL GREATLY AFFECT SFC
TO 850MB FLOW AND THUS THE POSITIONING, DURATION AND INTENSITY
OF ANY HEAVIER FOCUSED LAKE BANDS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ONE OR SEVERAL LAKE BANDS YIELDING ENHANCED SNOWFALL NEAR AND
SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE. NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO EBB AND FLOW
BUT CURRENTLY SIT BETWEEN 40- 50% FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW NORTH
OF I-80. THESE PROBABILITIES HAVE REMAINED RATHER STEADY FOR THE
PA AND WV RIDGES HOWEVER WHERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN BETWEEN
50-60%. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
AND PATTERN OVER THE COMING FORECAST PERIODS.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AND SNOW CHANCES
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AREAS
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND. OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH OF PIT, AS INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BEFORE MODERATING SOME BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING A LING OF
GUSTY SHOWERS AHEAD ON IT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DURING
THIS TIME, EXPECT DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS
THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE SOME PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO WANE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
LESSENING AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO THIS, CIGS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL THE THE CASE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FKL AND DUJ WHERE LIFR AND POSSIBLY LOWER WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE SOUTHWEST UP TO 25 KNOTS AND
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER 00Z WITH THE FROPA AND STILL GUST
UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...
WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE ON SATURDAY, BUT THE
REPRIEVE WILL BE BRIEF AS BOTH ARE FORECAST TO RETURN SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR FIRST
WINTRY PRECIPITATION OF THE SEASON) AS A SERIES OF ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...WM/AK
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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