587
FXUS61 KPBZ 072333
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
733 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN
WV WHERE THE COMBINATION OF LOWER TEMPERATURE AND CALM WINDS MAY
RESULT IN FROST THAT COULD HARM SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST FAVORED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN PA INTO NORTHERN WV.
2) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN (AREA VARYING) EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MORNING, PEAKING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE PASSAGES (THE FIRST OF WHICH MAY CREATE A
BRIEF AFTERNOON SPRINKLE IN NORTHWEST PA), A WINDOW OF CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT SURFACE WIND DEVELOPS THAT LIKELY RESULTS IN
FROST FORMATION IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST PA AND DOWN ALONG THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHERN WV. A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
VEGETATION FOR THESE AREAS. IT IS UNLIKELY ADDITIONAL AREAS
EXPERIENCE FROST DUE TO LACK OF STRONGER COOLING AND/OR THE
INTRUSION OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (AND LOW
PROBABILITY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A CONTINUATION OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGHING PATTERN IS STRONGLY
FAVORED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, FEATURING MULTIPLE PASSAGES OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES (OF VARYING STRENGTH) TO GENERATE PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE PERIOD CONTAINING
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS, GENERALLY
ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL OH THROUGH WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PA.
MEAN QPF VALUES WITHIN THIS HIGHER AXIS HOVER AROUND 0.5" WITH A
20-30% PROBABILITY FOR JET ENHANCEMENT TO 24-HOUR TOTALS ABOVE
1" (LESS THAN 1% PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 2"). THE LONG
DURATION AND LIMITED QPF AMOUNTS KEEP ENSURE FLOODING CONCERNS
ARE VERY LOW.
THOUGH THE START OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK MAY START DRY, THE UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN FEATURING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND PERIODS
OF RAIN IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH BASED CUMULUS SHOULD FADE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING, AND AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSES THE REGION, AND WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS. VFR IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, THOUGH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD LOWER INTO A CU/STRATOCU LAYER AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED.
INCLUDED A PROB30 MENTION FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR MOST
AIRPORTS ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, THOUGH
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN WITH A STRONGER TROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20KT FRIDAY
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
AND AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, UNDER THE CONTINUED SERIES OF
CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. VFR SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
PAZ008-009-015-016-074-076>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...WM
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