642
FXUS61 KPBZ 090735
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
335 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WAS INTRODUCED FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
MID-WEEK
2) HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
3) HOT TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR-RECORD OVERNIGHT WARMTH THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES BEGIN TODAY
WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING SHORTWAVES. THE COMBINATION OF A
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS, ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND WEAK
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANY STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE A RANGE OF HAZARDS, INCLUDING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS HAS INCREASED
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE
(WIDESPREAD 70+ DEW POINTS) AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY BOOST INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500+ J/KG. BULK SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL, WITH VALUES AROUND 20-25KTS. STILL, THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. ML GUIDANCE INDICATES A 15-30%
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AND SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS.
ML GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SEVERE POTENTIAL A BIT FOR THURSDAY,
BUT STILL INDICATES ~15% PROBABILITIES FOR THE AREA. DESPITE
SUBSTANTIAL CAPE, WEAK RIDGING, LACKING SHEAR, AND DRY MID-
LEVELS MAY INHIBIT UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONTINUES FOR THE ZANESVILLE AREA AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH A CROSSING
SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES NEAR 2.0" (NEAR THE
99TH PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY) AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO BY THIS AFTERNOON. MBE
VECTORS <15 KTS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND
BACKBUILDING STORMS.
HREF PROBABILITIES FOR 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE ZZV AREA HAVE
DECREASED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS (DOWN TO 20~30%), BUT GIVEN
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH PWATS AND POTENTIAL FOR SLOW
MOVING/BACKBUILDING STORMS, THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUES. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
(1/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN TEMPERATURES OF 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF THE
DAILY RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY
WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S LATE WEEK WILL BE NEAR RECORD WARM
MINIMUMS. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
DURING PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAT. LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA
HAVE A 70%+ CHANCE OF MAJOR HEAT RISK ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF MODERATE HEAT RISK OTHER DAYS THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY OUTSIDE OF LOCAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM-RELATED RESTRICTIONS. AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
LOWER CLOUD DECKS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PROBABILITY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OVER EASTERN OHIO (ZZV).
DAYTIME HEATING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. HEAVY RAIN
MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES. THUNDER
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z WEDNESDAY, BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER INTO IFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
A WARM, MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH INTERMITTENT PASSING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES FAVOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY STORM WHILE EXCESSIVE
RAIN COULD CREATE CIG/VIS IMPACTS EVEN DURING NON-RAIN PERIODS,
LIKELY AROUND THE DAWN HOURS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CRAVEN/RACKLEY
AVIATION...RACKLEY
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