919
FXUS61 KPBZ 271749
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
149 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED HIGH WATER ISSUES LINGERING FOR LARGER CREEKS AND
STREAMS. PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED FOR MOST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MOSTLY COOL AND DRY WEEKEND IN STORE.
2) RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG COLD FRONT RESULTED IN BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN AREA-WIDE, AND TEMPERATURE DROPS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES
AREAWIDE. LAKE-ENHANCED FLURRIES POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR, BUT OTHERWISE, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
BUT THERE IS SOME HOPE OF TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
SUNDAY AS WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM ENCROACHES. A RIDGE-ROUNDING SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY, ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF >1" ARE
GENERALLY <5%. INTO TUESDAY, A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY TRY TO
STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA AND DRAG NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS DRAG THIS THROUGH WITH A 90% CHANCE OF <1",
WITH THE ONLY SCENARIO OF SEEING MORE BEING IF THE WARM FRONT
STALLS IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THIS WARM FRONT MAY BRING STORMS,
BUT REALIZING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL (AS ALLUDED BY CSU ML) WOULD
BE DEPENDENT ON A AFTERNOON ARRIVAL TIME (MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS
THIS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME).
INTO WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM AND AFFILIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SWING THROUGH, BRINGING THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER, THOUGH DETAILS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN IN THE
ENVIRONMENT(SEVERE CHANCE MAY INCREASE IF THE FRONT PASSES IN
THE AFTERNOON).
AN ACTIVE PATTERN, ALONG WITH A PARADE OF WET SYSTEMS IS FAVORED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE CPC FAVORING PRECIPITATION
"ABOVE AVERAGE" IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WHICH MAY ALLUDE TO A
HIGHER THAN ADDITIONAL FLOODING. NBM PROBS SHOW A ~20% CHANCE
OF >2" IN THE 72 HOURS SPANNING WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE AT SOME PORTS DUE TO LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING SKIES SCATTERING OUT.
AREAWIDE VFR IS EXPECTED BY SUNSET TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SETTLES
IN. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 5-10 KNOTS THAT BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SHOULD RESULT
IN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK
AVIATION...CERMAK/LUPO
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