046
FXUS61 KPBZ 081640
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1240 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ISSUED FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT
FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 10AM APRIL 9TH. DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY
LOWERED AREA-WIDE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MORE ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH A COUPLE NOTABLE
EXCEPTIONS:
- FIRST, A BRIEF PERIOD OF FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS LINGER TONIGHT
FOR THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL TO ESTABLISH A DEEP INVERSION
WITH LOW DEW POINTS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. HREF PROBS OF
FROST ARE GENERALLY 20% FOR RURAL MON/WETZEL/MARION COUNTIES,
BUT IN INSULATED VALLEYS, CHANCES MAY BE A BIT HIGHER OF <36F
WITH MORE MOISTURE. HENCE, A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED,
THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IS THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR FROST. CHANCES ARE SIMILAR OF A FREEZE IN THE
RIDGES OF MON AND WESTERN PRESTON, BUT AGAIN, INSULATED
VALLEYS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY HAVE LOCALIZED HIGHER CHANCES
OF SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
- A GLANCING BLOW FROM A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT MAY SCRAPE
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY LATE-AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES. THOUGH CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN LOW WITH
A BIT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, DCAPE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED (95%
OF DCAPE <500 AT 8PM AT FKL).
- A PASSING FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME STORMS, BUT WITH
MOST PROFILES SHOWING SATURATION ALOFT AND DRY AIR NEARER THE
SURFACE, ACHIEVING MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE DIFFICULT, KEEPING
SEVERE CHANCES LOW. THERE'S A 95% CHANCE OF DCAPE <200 AT 8PM
FRIDAY AT PIT. LREF HAS A 90% CHANCE OF <0.3" OF QPF. NO
THREATS ARE FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.
EARLY-SEASON HEAT WILL BRING IN LIMITED HEAT RISK AS CHANCES OF
HIGHS EXCEEDING 80F INCREASE IN THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY PERIOD
WITH CONTINUED RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH DRY WEATHER TODAY, DECENT MIXING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB,
AND PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ARRIVING IN THE MIXED LAYER, WIDESPREAD
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS THE MID-TO-UPPER 10S ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN
10MPH, THIS WILL ACT TO DRY OUT FUELS. BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL HAVE THESE DRY FUELS TO WORK WITH AS WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 20MPH TO 30MPH EACH AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AS LOW AS THE UPPER 20S TO MID-30S. FIRE CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACH DURING THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW FLOW VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY.
OUTLOOK...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY ENCROACH DUJ/FKL LATE THURSDAY, WHICH WILL
CARRY CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY ON A COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
WVZ012-021-509.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
WVZ510-511.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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