854
FXUS61 KPBZ 211332
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
832 AM EST MON JAN 21 2019
SYNOPSIS
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS
LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS A COUPLE
BANDS SNOW SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING WITH ENCROACHMENT OF A COLD
CORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DRY ADVECTION AND EVENTUAL SUBSIDENCE
WILL SUPPRESS THESE AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS LATER THIS MRNG.
WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE AS IS.
EXPECT MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT, ALBEIT WITHOUT THE WIND CHILL INDICES, CAN
BE EXPECTED AS THE WIND CALMS AND THE SKY CLEARS UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO ARE
ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK TOWARD THE AVERAGES CAN BE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ENSUES IN ADVANCE OF PLAINS
LOW PRESSURE. A 30 TO 35 DEGREE LOW-TO-HIGH SPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.
THAT PLAINS LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG RAPIDLY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND CONTINUE THE WARM, AND EVENTUALLY MOIST ADVECTION
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. THOSE PARAMETERS NOW LOOK SUFFICIENT
TO ELIMINATE ANY SNOW MENTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS PER
INDICATIONS OF A MUCH WARMER OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE
THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ALSO LOOKS DIMINISHED AND WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON LINGERING SUB-FREEZING GROUND TEMPERATURE AFTER
THIS QUICK COLD SNAP. BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ADVECTION AND LATENT
HEATING AS ANY ICE FORMS SHOULD QUICKLY NEUTRALIZE THAT
POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
MENTION WAS RESTRICTED TO THE MORE FAVORABLE NORTH AND EASTERN
ZONES OF THE REGION.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE REGION WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW. PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AN INCH OR TWO
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
PASSAGE OF THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER
WEATHER AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A BROAD, HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FAIRLY DRY NW WIND WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR FOR WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK
SLIGHTLY IN COINCIDENCE WITH FLOW ALOFT, SHIFTING THE BANDS OF
SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS MORE TO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS, BECOMING VFR FOR MOST LOCALES. NW WINDS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK
RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ074-
076.
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509-510.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ511>514.
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