544
FXUS61 KPBZ 260943 CCA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
543 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY AS A FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE FRONT DRIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF
THE STORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN TODAY
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
---------------------------------------------------------------
A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN OH WILL TRACK EAST THIS MORNING,
CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE, MAINLY NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH, THOUGH SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED FROM
NEAR PITTSBURGH AND POINTS SOUTH. SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
INITIAL SHORTWAVE.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AND SHOULD BE ORIENTED FROM NORTHERN OH
INTO NW PA LATE THIS MORNING, SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS OH AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN OH/WRN PA. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE MET
BY AFTERNOON, WITH GENERAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE MOST
NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF PIT.
THE HIGHEST PWATS OF 1.8 TO 2.0 ARE PROGGED TO BE FROM PIT
NORTHWARD TODAY, WITH THESE AREAS THE MOST FAVORABLE TO SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ML CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY, RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SEE MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF PIT. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ARE DRYER FOR THIS AREA, SO HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS ALSO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA, THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE LESS
ORGANIZED AND SCATTERED.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AGAIN TODAY,
WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. ENSEMBLE BASED DCAPE IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-800 J/KG, WITH SOME LIMITED DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS. SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR COULD ALSO RESULT IN A
WIND POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TONIGHT
- MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND POSSIBLE IN SUNDAY
STORMS
- HOT WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY
----------------------------------------------------------------
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, MAINTAINING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
STORM INTENSITY SHOULD WANE IN THE EVENING WITH DIMINISHING
SURFACE INSTABILITY, THOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN
A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS
THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO THE NW, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
MORNING SHORTWAVE. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE MORNING SHORTWAVE, AND AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 30KT, AND W-NW FLOW ALOFT COULD
RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS SOUTH AND DISSIPATES, AND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IN NW FLOW. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND CROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SPARK
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WITH ITS PASSAGE. MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. THE HEAT WILL
RETURN MONDAY AS WELL, WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK.
- MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER HIGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL
REMAIN ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. AT
THIS TIME, ENSEMBLES INDICATE LITTLE SHORTWAVE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.
THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE SW LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS, WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE NE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN TROUGH, ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT,
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DRY,
COOLER, AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WITH LIGHT WIND AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS, PATCHY FOG WILL
PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING WHEN MIXING BEGINS TO INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ZZV->PIT->DUJ WHERE PROBABILITIES
RANGE FROM 30-50%. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE SUSTAINED AS IT
MIGRATES EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY REACHING FKL AFTER
SUNRISE AND DUJ BY MID-MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INITIATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH COVERAGE PEAKING LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PIN
DOWN EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, SO OPTED FOR
PROB30 AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON FOR NOW. A STRONGER STORM
COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION,
WIND WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH A BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK.
OUTLOOK...
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND
MAINTAINING DAILY PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTION CHANCES PEAKING
EACH AFTERNOON.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...88
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