035
FXUS61 KPBZ 062251
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
651 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PROLONG PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START TONIGHT.
COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
WARMING TREND DURING THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SAVE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY
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CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS WITH ADVANCING DRY AIR NOTED ON LOW-LEVEL WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE RIVER VALLEYS
BETWEEN 3AM AND 6AM SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER FOR MOST, WITH LOW-
LEVEL RIDGING TAKING CONTROL OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MODEST, SHALLOW INSTABILITY FOR
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WITH 850 TEMPS OF 3-4C ADVECTING
OVER LAKE ERIE WATER TEMPS OF 22C OR SO, A FEW LAKE-EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80 DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY, AS INCREASED
SUNSHINE IS OFFSET BY THE COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER AND WARMER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
- PATCHY VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING
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THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEIGHT RISES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE MAIN EASTERN TROUGH AXIS WEAKENS IN AMPLITUDE AND
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, REPLACED BY A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AXIS
RIDING UP THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
MONDAY ALLOWING EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING TO TAKE LOWS AROUND
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. MONDAY, MIXING
WILL ALLOW WARMER (BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE) AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WITH ONLY PATCHY AFTERNOON CUMULUS WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING MUCH OF THE SAME WITH COOL
LOWS AND VALLEY FOG, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY OF HEATING.
CORRESPONDINGLY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB A COUPLE
DEGREES COMPARED TO THE DAY PRIOR, BUT STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE. HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER
MOISTURE BLOWS OFF FROM A COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY LATE-WEEK
- FORECAST UNCERTAINTY GROWS NEXT WEEKEND
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THERE APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED CONSENSUS THAT UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING DROPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
PERIOD, SLOWING THE WARMING TREND AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE. DESPITE THE UPPER VEERING FLOW, NEAR-SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL AND MUCH OF THE AREA
DRY.
ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO SNOWBALL ON FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES STRUGGLE WITH 1) JUST HOW LONG TO KEEP THE
WEAK EASTERN TROUGHING AROUND 2) THE AMPLITUDE AND EASTWARD
EXTENT OF A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE, AND 3) THE LOWER-PROBABILITY
EVENT OF REINFORCED TROUGHING PATTERN DEVELOPING NEXT WEEKEND.
THE RANGE OF ALL SOLUTIONS WOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ON
THE WHOLE, ENSEMBLE MEANS HOLD TEMPERATURES STEADY, BUT TRENDS
ARE LIKELY TO FALL ON EITHER SIDE AS PATTERN RESOLUTION
CONTINUES. IN ALL SCENARIOS EXCEPT THE LOW- PROBABILITY OF A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH REINFORCEMENT, HOWEVER, RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
LIMITED TO NONE.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
03Z; VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD MINUS SOME PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z.
MGW, LBE, AND DUJ HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY ACCORDING TO HREF PROBABILITIES, AND HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION IN THOSE TAFS.
ANY FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z SUNDAY, WITH VFR FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND SOME NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z. FKL/DUJ MAY
EXPERIENCE A STRAY SHOWER BETWEEN 15Z TO 22Z DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT, BUT VIS AND CIG IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LOW.
OUTLOOK.
ISOLATED SITES MAY EXPERIENCE VALLEY FOG FOR BRIEF PERIODS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE LONG TERM. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...MILCAREK
LONG TERM...MILCAREK
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/CL
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