854  
FXUS61 KPBZ 211332  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
832 AM EST MON JAN 21 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPRESS RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS  
LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH  
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS A COUPLE  
BANDS SNOW SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING WITH ENCROACHMENT OF A COLD  
CORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DRY ADVECTION AND EVENTUAL SUBSIDENCE  
WILL SUPPRESS THESE AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS LATER THIS MRNG.  
 
WIND CHILL HEADLINES CONTINUE AS IS.  
 
EXPECT MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 20  
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT, ALBEIT WITHOUT THE WIND CHILL INDICES, CAN  
BE EXPECTED AS THE WIND CALMS AND THE SKY CLEARS UNDER BUILDING  
HIGH PRESSURE. SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO ARE  
ANTICIPATED.  
 
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY BACK TOWARD THE AVERAGES CAN BE EXPECTED  
ON TUESDAY AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION ENSUES IN ADVANCE OF PLAINS  
LOW PRESSURE. A 30 TO 35 DEGREE LOW-TO-HIGH SPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.  
 
THAT PLAINS LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG RAPIDLY TOWARD THE GREAT  
LAKES AND CONTINUE THE WARM, AND EVENTUALLY MOIST ADVECTION  
OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. THOSE PARAMETERS NOW LOOK SUFFICIENT  
TO ELIMINATE ANY SNOW MENTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS PER  
INDICATIONS OF A MUCH WARMER OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THE  
THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ALSO LOOKS DIMINISHED AND WILL BE  
DEPENDENT ON LINGERING SUB-FREEZING GROUND TEMPERATURE AFTER  
THIS QUICK COLD SNAP. BOUNDARY LAYER WARM ADVECTION AND LATENT  
HEATING AS ANY ICE FORMS SHOULD QUICKLY NEUTRALIZE THAT  
POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK  
MENTION WAS RESTRICTED TO THE MORE FAVORABLE NORTH AND EASTERN  
ZONES OF THE REGION.  
 
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS  
THE REGION WITH RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW. PROGRESSION OF  
THE FRONT WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AN INCH OR TWO  
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
PASSAGE OF THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER  
WEATHER AND SNOW SHOWERS AS A BROAD, HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH  
DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
A FAIRLY DRY NW WIND WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN  
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR FOR WESTERN PA AND NORTHERN WV  
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK  
SLIGHTLY IN COINCIDENCE WITH FLOW ALOFT, SHIFTING THE BANDS OF  
SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS MORE TO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA.  
 
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON  
HOURS, BECOMING VFR FOR MOST LOCALES. NW WINDS WILL WEAKEN  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.  
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.  
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073-075.  
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ074-  
076.  
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
WVZ001>004-012-021-509-510.  
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
WVZ511>514.  
 

 
 

 
 
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