852
FXUS61 KPBZ 171856
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
156 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE 1PM. A PASSING
SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX OR
SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MILDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING
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LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, ALLOWING
ALL WINTER HEADLINES TO BE CANCELLED.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT, WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BY SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY BRING TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER, WITH LIGHT AND VARAIBLE WINDS, WIND
CHILL VALUES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EARLY TUESDAY WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY; HEAVIER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-70
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A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE JUST BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO. WITH COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION, SOME ICY SPOTS
MAY DEVELOP. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS EASTERN OHIO
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA FOR LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATION BETWEEN 8AM TO 12PM TUESDAY.
IN THE VICNITY OF PITTSBURGH AND NORTH, A PERIOD OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. ACCUMULATIONS COULD RANGE
FROM A TRACE TO ONE INCH; LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND
ON WHERE STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS. AT THE MOMENT, HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT COLUMBIANA, BEAVER, ALLEGHENY,
AND HANCOCK COUNTIES MAY BE WHERE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
RESIDE. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE 'WET' AND HEAVY IN NATURE, WITH
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 5:1.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON, MODELS INDICATE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY
OVERTAKE THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO
RAIN. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, RANGING BETWEEN 0.50 TO 0.80
INCHES, IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-70. WITH THESE PROJECTED AMOUNTS,
MORGANTOWN, WV COULD BE CLOSE TO A DAILY PRECIP RECORD
(0.75"/1984).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND
- RAIN CHANCES RISE AGAIN LATE WEEK WITH ANOTHER PASSING
DISTURBANCE LIKELY
- POSSIBLE DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY
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ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO AGREE ON HEIGHT RISES DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL SUPPORT MODERATING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE
RIDGE ALOFT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ALONG IT AND COULD SUPPORT
LOW END RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT, A MAJORITY OF CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR
A TROUGH DROPPING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN BOTH STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THIS WAVE. A FASTER TROUGH WOULD RESULT IN LESS RAIN
COMPARED TO A SLOWER TROUGH. THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH (WEAKER
OR STRONGER) RESULTS IN SIMILAR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
REGARDLESS OF HOW THE TROUGH PANS OUT, THE START OF RAIN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING WITH AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT, FRIDAY'S DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (TYPICALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S). THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TRIGGERING A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP POPS ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO
THE CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS.
A DRIER TREND MAY RETURN BY SUNDAY AS ENSEMBLES WEAKLY AGREE ON
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF I-80 THIS
MORNING. MOST PORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, BUT KDUJ MAY SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH SNOW WITHIN A LINGER SNOW
BAND.
WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, EXPECTED WIND GUSTS TO RANGE
BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KTS TODAY.
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z AS A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY FROM THE WEST. LINGERING MID AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
MAY ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW OR AS A WINTRY MIX AS
MOISTURE MOVES INTO EASTERN OHIO. CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY DEPEND
ON THE SPEED OF THE LOW'S PROGRESSION INTO THE MIDWEST AND THE
ONSET TIME OF THE WARM ADVECTION. A FASTER ARRIVAL TIME WOULD
FAVOR A PERIOD (1-2 HRS) OF SNOW OR SLEET BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN AT SOME TERMINALS. IF THE LOW REMAINS FARTHER WEST FOR
LONGER, THE LIKELIHOOD OF A WINTRY MIX OR SNOW WILL BE REDUCED.
CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO MVFR FOLLOWED BY IFR AFTER 15Z TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AND REMAIN LOW INTO
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
PERIODIC RESTRICTION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A RELATIVELY
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN
SHORT TERM...HEFFERAN
LONG TERM...LUPO
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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