778
FXUS61 KPBZ 312133
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
533 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVE UPDATE AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN A CLEAR SKY AND GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS. MORNING LOWS WILL
THUS BE WELL BE WELL BELOW THE AVERAGES WITH READINGS AROUND THE 40F
MARK, AND INTO THE 30S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA IN NW FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
MAIN RIDGE, WHILE A WARM FRONT CROSSES AT THE SURFACE. THE RESULTANT
LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO CREATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY. WHILE GFS/NAM INDICATE 40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY IS MORE QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN THE LIKELY MORNING PRESENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
THUS, SEVERE RISK IS MUTED AT THIS POINT. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT AND UPPER WAVE DEPART. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY
ZONAL, PROGRESS OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWED, AND MODELS DIFFER A
BIT ON TIMING. THIS TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL, AS THE MODELS SUGGEST A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG, ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40 KNOTS AND AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THE UPPER NW
FLOW PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE AS WELL.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY AT LEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS LYING TO THE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. ANOTHER BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTH COULD PROVIDE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY,
WITH DRIER WEATHER BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR AND LIGHT WIND.
OUTLOOK
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK VIA SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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