694
FXUS61 KPBZ 230617
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
217 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY HAS INCREASED A BIT, WITH INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT MAY
STALL IN OR NEAR OUR REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH TAPERING OFF THIS MORNING, WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
2) DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO AN
OVERALL DRYING TREND TODAY. HOWEVER, AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND LIFTS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
AREA, SOME RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY AREAS SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN. NEITHER HEAVY RAIN
NOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A THREAT. SHOWERS SHOULD DEPART THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES BY MIDDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
OTHERWISE, LOW STRATUS AND PATCHES OF FOG WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH SUNRISE THANKS TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ONCE DAYTIME
MIXING COMMENCES, AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IS FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD COME IN JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, WITH DRY
WEATHER AND A TREND TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY, AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARDS OUR REGION, AND THERE ARE ENSEMBLE INDICATIONS THAT THE
BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER
SIDE AT THIS DISTANCE, BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF PIT
THROUGH 12Z, MAINLY IMPACTING MGW AND LBE. OTHERWISE, LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH AN INVERSION. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST CASES, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST MAY MITIGATE IMPACTS AT FKL AND ZZV TO AT LEAST
SOME DEGREE.
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT WITH MIXING AFTER
SUNRISE ON TUESDAY, AND CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT BY
THE AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET, MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. EXPECT NW WIND 5-10KT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. RESTRICTION AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...CL
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