161  
FXUS61 KPBZ 190754  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
354 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE TODAY. THE NEXT  
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
A QUIET DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS AN UPPER RIDGE CROSSES  
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE  
TERRAIN OF EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND  
MARGINAL MOISTURE DEVELOPS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
A NEW UPPER LOW WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, CARVING OUT A NEW TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY  
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH  
WILL CROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY  
ARRIVE SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, FED BY  
GENERALLY MODEST BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.  
 
THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY. THE  
RESULTING MOISTURE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST FLOW, PLUS SUPPORT  
FOR LIFT FROM SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH THE TROUGH, WILL BRING  
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
SUNDAY'S PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY, MEANING ANOTHER DAY  
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.  
 
THE TROUGH THEN SETS UP SHOP OVER THE UPPER OHIO  
VALLEY/NORTHEAST CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,  
ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS MODELS/ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT AND  
STRENGTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY THEN TAKE ON MORE OF A  
DIURNAL CHARACTER, SIMILAR TO THE RECENT PATTERN, AGAIN WITH  
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH  
MOSTLY SCT AFTN CU THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
PATCHY PRE-DAWN FOG IS LIKELY GIVEN A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND,  
BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC MOISTURE MEANS MOST IMPACTS WILL BE  
SHORTER-LIVED AND RELEGATED TO TERMINALS ADJACENT RIVER  
VALLEYS.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PLUS POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS  
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A  
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...  
NEAR TERM...  
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...  
 
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