150
FXUS61 KPBZ 132337
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO PART OF EASTERN OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINDY WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ON FRIDAY
2) SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PASSING LOW
PRESSURE; STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING TO OUR NORTH TODAY HAS TIGHTENED
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT DOES SO. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WITH 850 MB FLOW UP TO 60 KNOTS IS GLIDING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES AND TAPS INTO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
FLOW. NBM AND HREF PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS >46
MPH FOR NEARLY ALL OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON, SO THE WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES. HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO TWO
TIERS OF OUR EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE THE CORE
OF THE 850 MB JET WILL TRAVERSE, AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER OFF OF
THE HRRR/RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS >58 MPH GUSTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2-6PM. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY CONTINUES AS WELL.
ACCOMPANYING A SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDING ALONG LAKE ERIE. 12Z CAMS SUPPORT A
NARROW, BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVING ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX WITH ALL BUT A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF OF THE
SURFACE BELOW FREEZING. ANY MIXING SNOW WILL NOT ACCUMULATE TO
MUCH, BUT IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE (HREF PROBABILITY
FOR >100 J/KG ~60-70%), THESE "POWER SHOWERS" COULD MIX DOWN
LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS THEY PASS. IN
COORDINATION WITH SPC, NO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPGRADE HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED AS THIS WOULD ONLY BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS
FROM WHAT HAS BEEN MESSAGED AND DESPITE THE CONDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE NATURE.
GIVEN MINRH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE LOW 30% RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN SPS
ADDRESSING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND THE WV DIVISION OF
FORESTRY. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND RELAX INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY
ESTABLISHING STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
COLUMN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH OPEN FLOW FROM THE GULF AND THE
PRIMARY HIGHEST PWAT AXIS LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED OFF TO OUR EAST, BUT
STILL, LOCAL VALUES REACHING NEAR 1 INCH WILL EXCEED THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY ON MONDAY. THESE MAY POSE A LOW END
SEVERE CHANCE THAT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING; MACHINE
LEARNING SUGGESTS HIGHER CHANCES TO OUR WEST AND TO OUR EAST
FURTHER ILLUSTRATING THE POTENTIAL TIMING LIMITATION ON SEVERE
WEATHER LOCALLY. WITH STRONG FLOW AND A QUICK MOVING FRONT,
HEAVY RAIN SHOULDN'T POSE MUCH OF A THREAT DESPITE THE HIGHER
PWAT VALUES. THE STRONG MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY
POINT TOWARD A SLOWER COLD FRONT PROGRESSION WHICH IS
REPRESENTED BY THE GFS AI AS WELL AS TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS, SO THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, ANOTHER STRONG WIND THREAT
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH AN INCREASED LOW LEVEL JET AND A STRONG
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. NBM MAX 24
HOUR WIND GUST AGAIN INCREASES PROBABILITY FOR WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA TO 40-60%. A SHARP TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT DROP
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW
SHOWERS, THOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS DRIER AIR
ERODES THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND MODELS TEND TO OVERDO POST-
FRONTAL SNOW AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, SAVE FOR SOME MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS AT FKL/DUJ THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF I-80. THE
MAIN STORY REMAINS THE WIND - WITH WIDESPREAD 50 TO 60 KNOT
GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WIND WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS MIXING EASES, BUT GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE
FINALLY EASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND ASIDE FROM A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS NORTH OF PIT
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT RETURNS WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY, AS WELL AS RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-073-074-077-078.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ031-075-076.
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ069.
WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ001>003.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ004-012-021-
509>513.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...MLB
AVIATION...CL
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