644
FXUS61 KPBZ 042349
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
649 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF WEST VIRGINIA AND
PENNSYLVANIA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADVISORY TO WARNING LEVEL SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING
2) POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
3) POTENTIAL WARM-UP NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IN GENERAL, FORECAST VALUES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
AVERAGE AROUND 2.5 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS MEASURING AS
HIGH AS 4 INCHES. PEAK TIMES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION STILL LOOK
TO BE BETWEEN 10AM AND 5PM, WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE FRIDAY
EVENING COMMUTE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SNOW
TYPE; IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, FLUFFY SNOW, WITH SNOW-LIQUID
RATIOS RANGING FROM 18:1 TO 21:1.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN THE RIDGES WITH ENHANCED RATE DUE
TO UPSLOPING. 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW AND EVENTUAL WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45MPH. IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, A WINTER
STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE RIDGES OF WV AND PA.
IN THE EVENING, AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF INCREASED SNOW RATES, AND POSSIBLY SNOW SQUALLS. BE
PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CRASHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW VISIBILITY IF SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 2....
STRONG WINDS AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WILL SWITCH THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM SNOW TO EXTREME
COLD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CRASH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR LOWER BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY. WITH PREVAILING WIND GUSTS OF
25-30MPH NEAR THE SURFACE, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO WELL
BELOW ZERO, LIKELY PROMPTING ADVISORY-LEVEL COLD HEADLINES AND
POSSIBLE WARNING- LEVEL HEADLINES IN THE RIDGES AND ALONG/NORTH
OF I-80.
WITH LITTLE WIND RELIEF EXPECTED, COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY
CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
SATURDAY'S FORECASTED LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BREAK DAILY
RECORDS FOR A FEW CLIMATE SITES. FOR EXAMPLE, ZANESVILLE IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO TOP OUT AT 14F (RECORD IS 17F FROM
2014), AND WHEELING IS FORECAST TO 15F (THE RECORD IS 17F FROM
2007).
KEY MESSAGE 3....
LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A SHIFT IN THE EAST COAST'S WEATHER
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD FINALLY BRING ABOVE-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THE WARMING TREND IS
DEPENDENT ON A RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST MOVING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND A LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
CALIFORNIA TO HELP PROMOTE ZONAL FLOW. THE MILDER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SNOW TO MELT, WHICH COULD AFFECT LOCAL ICY
RIVERS, CURRENTLY 3-6 INCHES THICK. THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK IS ESTIMATED AT 1.3 (AROUND THE PITTSBURGH
METRO REGION) TO 2.3 INCHES (AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH). ALONG
WITH SNOW MELT, SHOULD A NEW WEATHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOP AND
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN, THERE IS A RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) DEGREE OF CLEARING OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT DETERMINES
FOG CHANCES, IFR POSSIBLE
2) CONTINUED FEED OF MVFR STRATUS NEAR FKL EXPECTED TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT
3) MORE EXPANSIVE FOG THURSDAY MORNING YIELDS SLOWER CLEARING,
LESS EXPANSIVE FOG YIELDS A QUICKER IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN
RETURN TO VFR THURSDAY PM
------------------------------------------------------------
A COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST IS SET TO UNFOLD FOR THE COMING
TAF PERIOD. MIXING INDUCED STRATOCU FAILED TO MATERIALIZE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PAST AFTERNOON AND THUS COULD NOT LOWER
AND INSULATE US THIS EVENING. THE CONSEQUENCE OF THIS IS NOW,
WITH DECREASING HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE, FOG POTENTIAL IS RISING
QUICKLY. THE ONLY PORT THAT MANAGED TO GET MVFR CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON (FKL) MAY ACTUALLY HAVE A LOWER FOG CHANCE THAN OTHER
PORTS AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM A LAKE
HURON CONNECTION, WITH ERIE FROZEN OVER. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO
PERSIST AND LOWER OVERNIGHT. IFR REMAINS POSSIBLE AT FKL BUT
FAVORS LOW STRATUS UNLIKE OTHER PORTS. THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVERNIGHT.
PORTS THAT CLOUD OVER WITH THIS STRATUS WILL FAVOR MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND HAVE A LOWER CHANCE FOR FOG.
RESTRICTIONS IN MIST SEEM POSSIBLE AT ALMOST ALL OTHER PORTS,
WITH FURTHER REDUCTIONS TO IFR POSSIBLE IN A COUPLE OF
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS, CURRENTLY FAVORING AGC/LBE/DUJ. REFLECTING
THIS, MOST PORTS HAVE BEEN GIVEN TEMPOS FOR BR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MORE FAVORED AREAS FEATURE PREVAILING GROUPS AND LOWER
TEMPOS. IT DOES SEEM POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SETUP THAT A COUPLE
PORTS COULD SEE VIS FALL BELOW 1SM IN FZFG.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SETUP REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT, WITH HOW
POOR MODELING WAS THIS PAST AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID, THE
METEOROLOGICAL BACKING FOR THIS SITUATION IS STRONG IF: 1) WE
CAN ERODE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY AND EFFICIENTLY LIKE MODELING
SUGGESTS AND 2) WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. IF BOTH OF
THESE OCCUR THEN THE CURRENT TAFS ARE LIKELY NOT PESSIMISTIC
ENOUGH. IF WINDS CAN GO COMPLETELY CALM THE CHANCE FOR FZFG
RISES QUICKLY AT ALL PORTS. THESE CURRENT TAFS ARE MEANT TO BE A
GO-BETWEEN OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A POSSIBLE FOGGIER
FORECAST THAT COULD BE NEEDED BY 03-06Z WITH AN EYE ON HOW
QUICKLY HIGH CLOUDS ERODE AND HOW EXPANSIVE LAKE HURON
CONNECTION STRATUS BECOMES.
THIS FORECAST IS AN EITHER/OR SITUATION FOCUSED ON HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD EROSION, IF THESE CLOUDS DO NOT ERODE THEN FOG BECOMES
LESS LIKELY AND THE CURRENT TAFS MAY BE SUFFICIENT. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE EROSION SEEN OVER KCVG RIGHT NOW, THE FORECAST LEANS
TOWARDS FOG DEVELOPMENT.
IF FOG BECOMES EXPANSIVE IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE WE
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ERODING IT ON THURSDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SFC, MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION AND LITTLE
MIXING OBSERVED THIS PAST AFTERNOON IT IS EASILY CONCEIVABLE
THAT FOG IS SLOW TO LIFT AND ONLY INCREMENTAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ACHIEVED TOMORROW. IF FOG COVERAGE IS LESS EXPANSIVE THEN IT
SEEMS MORE LIKELY WE COULD BEGIN TO LIFT IT BY LATE MORNING AND
SEE POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THEN BROKEN PATCHES OF VFR BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SET UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THIS LIKELY DOESN'T SPUR MUCH
MIXING.
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD
SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1-3" LIKELY WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS AROUND LBE WITH LIGHT RATES AND A FLUFFY SNOW CHARACTER.
HI- RES MODELING IS ALREADY SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE BANDED
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS COULD CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY UNDER COLD NW FLOW. VFR SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/88
AVIATION...AK
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