600
FXUS61 KPBZ 041139
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
739 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
2) ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DAILY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT,
MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY, WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE
LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION WEDNESDAY, AS A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DRIFTS NORTH. THE LOW IS PROGGED
TO PHASE WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH, AS MOISTURE AND LIFT BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE OVERALL FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK, WITH
MINIMAL SHEAR. ML CAPE IS GENERALLY PROGGED FROM 500-1000 J/KG.
IT APPEARS ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LIMITED.
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS THEN PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRACK THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH, RESULTING IN DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH DIURNAL COVERAGE TRENDS. WHILE
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS, IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WAVE IS
PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY PASSAGE. WHILE THERE WILL BE
A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, IT
REMAINS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS, SUCH AS HOW CLOUD COVER
AFFECTS INSTABILITY, ETC, AND HOW THIS AFFECTS THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE CU RULE INDICATE
A FEW-SCT CUMULUS DECK WITH CIGS ~5KFT CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, RETURN LATER IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING DAILY
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK/WM
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