372
FXUS61 KPBZ 230033 CCA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
833 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MID- WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A DRY UPCOMING WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
2) BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ELECTED TO CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE FLOOD WATCH. RAINFALL
RATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE BEEN MEAGER FOR THE MOST PART,
AND MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE REMAINS AT THIS TIME. THE
I-80 LIGHT RAIN BAND FED BY MID- LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL
CONTINUE TO FADE THIS EVENING. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN OHIO, IN WEAK
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER,
THE LACK OF STRONG LIFT AND INSTABILITY, PLUS MORE SUBDUED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, SHOULD KEEP RAIN RATES BELOW
CONCERNING LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SUPPORT FOR RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES SHIFTING SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SET-UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WEST. LONGER
RANGE ENSEMBLES THEN POINT TOWARD A DRY WEEKEND LOCALLY AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN THAT AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BECOMES OUR
DOMINANT FEATURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BENEATH THE COLD UPPER LOW, WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW, AND
BENEATH THICK CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS, NBM ADVERTISES A 60-70%
CHANCE THAT THE PA & WV RIDGES CAN'T GET ABOVE 60F FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, THE GOAL POSTS SPREAD FROM LOW 60S ON THE
COOL END TO MID 60S ON THE WARM END, AND GIVEN THE CONDITIONS
IN PLACE, IT'S LIKELY A BETTER BET TO HEDGE COOLER. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING. SO, EVEN OPTIMISTICALLY, MID 60S IS LIKELY
OUR CEILING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COMPLICATED START TO THE TAF WINDOW WITH VARYING DECKS AND
RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR IS SLOWLY
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH AND EATING AWAY AT DEFORMATION BAND
SHOWERS OBSERVED ON RADAR.
THIS DRY AIR AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND HAS PUSHED DUJ TO VFR.
DOWNSLOPE WINDS LIKELY HELP PERIODS OF IMPROVEMENTS AT LBE AND
MGW AS WELL. DRY AIR PRESSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL LIKELY
HELP CLEAR FKL HERE SHORTLY AS WELL.
FURTHER SOUTH, RESTRICTIONS AT OTHER PORTS CONTINUE BUT, AREAS
OF DRIZZLE ARE SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST CLEARING HLG AND AGC AND
ARE EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN HERE SHORTLY AT PIT AND BVI. THESE
PORTS WILL FACE A COMPLEX INTERACTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ADVANCING DRY AIR BEING PUSHED IN FROM THE NORTH. IF DRY AIR
WINS OUT THESE CIGS COULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY 06Z AS IN SOME OF THE
MOST AGGRESSIVELY OPTIMISTIC MODELS. ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
SIDE, DRY AIR SLOWS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDS MOST PORTS AT
LOW END MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE MIXING BEGINS TO
CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW.
ZZV IS THE MOST COMPLICATED TAF AS IFR LIKELY MAKES A HOME HERE
WITH WAVES OF MIST AND SHOWERS OCCUPYING THE MAJORITY OF THE
NIGHT CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY ZZV IS
LIKELY THE LAST PORT TO CLEAR BACK TO VFR TOMORROW.
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT NEAR 10KTS. GUSTS RETURN
TOMORROW WITH MOST PORTS HAVING A SHOT TO GUST TO NEAR 20KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
ONCE PORTS CLEAR TOMORROW, WE LIKELY ENTER A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF VFR, POSSIBLY ONLY BROKEN LOCALLY BY STEAM FOG MIGRATING OFF
OF THE RIVERS. OTHERWISE, OUR NEXT SHOT AT ACTIVE WEATHER
DOESN'T LOOK TO COME UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL/LUPO
AVIATION...AK
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