544  
FXUS61 KPBZ 260943 CCA  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
543 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY AS A FRONT LIFTS  
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE FRONT DRIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTH.  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF  
THE STORMS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN TODAY  
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE  
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS  
---------------------------------------------------------------  
 
A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN OH WILL TRACK EAST THIS MORNING,  
CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE, MAINLY NORTH OF  
PITTSBURGH, THOUGH SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED FROM  
NEAR PITTSBURGH AND POINTS SOUTH. SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE  
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS  
INITIAL SHORTWAVE.  
 
A SURFACE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH  
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AND SHOULD BE ORIENTED FROM NORTHERN OH  
INTO NW PA LATE THIS MORNING, SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE NORTH THIS  
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST  
ACROSS OH AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS  
EASTERN OH/WRN PA. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE MET  
BY AFTERNOON, WITH GENERAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE MOST  
NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF PIT.  
 
THE HIGHEST PWATS OF 1.8 TO 2.0 ARE PROGGED TO BE FROM PIT  
NORTHWARD TODAY, WITH THESE AREAS THE MOST FAVORABLE TO SEE  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ML CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO  
FRIDAY, RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR  
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SEE MORE  
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF PIT. THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS  
ARE DRYER FOR THIS AREA, SO HELD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS  
TIME. THERE IS ALSO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA, THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE LESS  
ORGANIZED AND SCATTERED.  
 
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AGAIN TODAY,  
WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. ENSEMBLE BASED DCAPE IS  
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 500-800 J/KG, WITH SOME LIMITED DRY AIR  
IN THE MID LEVELS. SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR COULD ALSO RESULT IN A  
WIND POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS.  
 
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF ANY  
CONVECTION, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TONIGHT  
- MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY  
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND POSSIBLE IN SUNDAY  
STORMS  
- HOT WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY  
----------------------------------------------------------------  
 
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION  
OVERNIGHT, MAINTAINING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  
STORM INTENSITY SHOULD WANE IN THE EVENING WITH DIMINISHING  
SURFACE INSTABILITY, THOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN  
A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT.  
 
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS  
THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO THE NW, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE  
MORNING SHORTWAVE. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED  
WITH THE MORNING SHORTWAVE, AND AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA IN  
THE AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 30KT, AND W-NW FLOW ALOFT COULD  
RESULT IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.  
 
THE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT  
SHIFTS SOUTH AND DISSIPATES, AND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINS TO  
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
MOST OF MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION IS  
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IN NW FLOW. A  
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND CROSS  
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SPARK  
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WITH ITS PASSAGE. MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD  
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. THE HEAT WILL  
RETURN MONDAY AS WELL, WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK.  
- MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY  
- SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY  
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND  
-------------------------------------------------------------------  
 
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER HIGH WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL  
REMAIN ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. AT  
THIS TIME, ENSEMBLES INDICATE LITTLE SHORTWAVE SUPPORT FOR  
PRECIP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE.  
 
THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE SW LATE WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY, WITH AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN CONUS, WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE NE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE  
EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN TROUGH, ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT,  
ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DRY,  
COOLER, AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
WITH LIGHT WIND AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS, PATCHY FOG WILL  
PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING WHEN MIXING BEGINS TO INCREASE IN THE  
LOW LEVELS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE  
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ZZV->PIT->DUJ WHERE PROBABILITIES  
RANGE FROM 30-50%. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE SUSTAINED AS IT  
MIGRATES EAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY REACHING FKL AFTER  
SUNRISE AND DUJ BY MID-MORNING.  
 
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INITIATE  
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH COVERAGE PEAKING LATER  
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PIN  
DOWN EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, SO OPTED FOR  
PROB30 AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON FOR NOW. A STRONGER STORM  
COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION,  
WIND WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH A BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD  
DECK.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND  
MAINTAINING DAILY PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTION CHANCES PEAKING  
EACH AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...WM  
NEAR TERM...WM  
SHORT TERM...WM  
LONG TERM...WM  
AVIATION...88  
 
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