413
FXUS61 KPBZ 080016
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY PRIMARILY NORTH AND
EAST OF PITTSBURGH. CONTINUED ROUNDS OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING WIND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT SNOW EARLY TONIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80, LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE.
- COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS
---------------------------------------------------------------
..7:00PM UPDATE..
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW OBSERVED
SOUTH OF I-80, AND PERHAPS A LIGHT COATING OBSERVED THUS FAR
NORTH OF I-80 AS EVIDENCED BY WEBCAMS. ALL PRECIPITATION THAT
HAS FALLEN HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS SNOW THUS FAR WITH SEEDER-FEEDER
PROCESSES. SNOW LOAD REMAINS A MINIMAL CONCERN THROUGH THIS
EVENING. TIMING HAS SNOWFALL RATES DETERIORATING AFTER 10PM,
WITH PERHAPS ONLY SOME FLURRIES ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.
WHILE MOST ROAD TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING WITH
NO ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS OBSERVED (AS OF 6:00PM), WITH THE
POTENTIAL DOWNTREND OF AREA TEMPERATURES THERE MAY BE SOME ICY
SPOTS ON ROADS WITH REFREEZING OF ANY STANDING WATER IN AREAS
THAT SEE THE HIGHEST QPF (MOST LIKELY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH).
EXTRA CAUTION IS ADVISED IF ON THE ROADS THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT.
..PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SOUTH OF I-80, SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AS POTENTIAL SEEDER-FEEDER EFFECTS CAN SATURATE
THE DRY LAYER ENOUGH, BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80 IS WHERE THE "HIGHER" SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
AS MOISTURE IS A BIT BETTER AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT OVERLAP AIDS IN FORCING. 12Z HREF
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IS 70-90% ALONG AND NORTH OF 80
AS WELL AS IN THE PA RIDGES, BUT SHARPLY DROPS OFF TO <20%
FARTHER SOUTH AND IN THE LOWLANDS. BUMPING UP TO A HALF AN INCH
SHOWS <10% FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA, EVEN AFTER INCREASING THE
NEIGHBORHOOD RADIUS TO ACCOUNT FOR SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY. SO, MOST
WILL SEE PERHAPS A DUSTING WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND I-80
CORRIDOR COULD SEE UP TO A HALF AN INCH AT MOST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND USHERS IN A COLDER AIRMASS FROM CANADA. DEW POINTS TANK
INTO THE LOW TEENS/SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT THUS LOWERING THE
POTENTIAL FLOOR FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH
OF A NORTHERLY FLOW AND SLOW TO CLEAR CLOUD COVER IS GOING TO OFFSET
IT. STILL, LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AND SINGLE DIGITS
NORTH OF I-80.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND COLD MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
- ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF PITTSBURGH TUESDAY
----------------------------------------------------------------
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY, WHICH WILL
YIELD LIGHT WINDS, BUT ALSO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
THE CP AIRMASS TRANSITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION,M FOR PERSPECTIVE, THEY WILL STILL BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT LOW MAX RECORDS. EXPECT
HIGHS BETWEEN 20 TO UPPER 20S.
A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY, RETURNING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH OF PGH
DURING THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW.
THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO SUPPORT A MELTING SNOWFALL AS MODEST
WAA SUPPORTS DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS LOOK UNLIKELY FROM THIS
SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER WITH A SERIES
OF PASSING DISTURBANCES MID AND LATE WEEK.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE
SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE
RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN. CONTINUED WAA ACROSS THE REGION
LEAVES OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THAT FREEZING MARK BUT SUPPORTS
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 40S ON WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH
THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WITH SNOW
MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80 AND RAIN FAVORED
ELSEWHERE. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW, MOST LIKELY IN THE PA/WV
RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80, WOULD WIND DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND MANY AREAS TURN OVER TO RAIN. THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY TURNING REMAINING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. QPF ESTIMATES FROM THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN NEAR 0.25 INCHES.
POPS LOWER SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY FAVORING A
BRIEF STINT OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. ONCE AGAIN, TIMING UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
DEPARTURE OF THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM ARE SPREADING POPS WIDELY ACROSS THURSDAY, BUT SOME STAY
OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LOOKS TO SWEEP THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE WHAT KIND AND HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT. AT THIS TIME, ENSEMBLES ARE
RATHER SPREAD ON THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS TRACK, BUT A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING IMPACTFUL
WINTER WEATHER. A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WOULD FAVOR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WITH THE BEST SNOW IN THE RIDGES AND NORTH OF I-80, SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOK TO FLUCTUATE SOME BUT
WITH THE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE REGION, GENERALLY TREND DOWN
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF THE
DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD LEAD TO A WIDE SPREAD
IN TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT ENSEMBLES THAT FAVOR A
DEEPER TROUGH FEATURE ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE HAS BEEN SOME INSTANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 4 OR 5 MILES AT TIMES. THIS WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY 06Z. BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT SOME LINGERING
STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA DROPPING CIGS.
SNOW TAPERS OVERNIGHT THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AND LIGHT WEST WINDS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY
UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH INDICATION THAT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR COULD BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION REGIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT EVEN SOME BELOW IFR
OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBLE.
EXPECT THAT VFR WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK IN AS DRIER
AIR INTRUDES IN THE AREA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. WIND WILL HOLD
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK STRONGLY FAVORS
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT WITHIN UPPER TROUGHING THAT BRINGS
PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTION POTENTIAL TO THE AREA GENERALLY
EVERY OTHER DAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LARGELY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW, SAVE FOR SHORT PERIODS OF RAIN AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS DURING DAYTIME HOURS. WIND LOOKS TO INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH PASSING LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MLB/AK
NEAR TERM...MLB/MILCAREK
SHORT TERM...88/AK
LONG TERM...88/AK
AVIATION...MLB/SHALLENBERGER
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