281
FXUS61 KPBZ 200650
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
250 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QPF HAS TRENDED UP QUICKLY FOR THE FRIDAY RAINFALL WITH A MORE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT RAISING TOTALS TO BETWEEN 0.25-0.75 INCHES
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ROSE SOME ON SUNDAY,
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MORE PRE-FRONTAL HEATING
THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
2) WARMING TREND OVER THE COMING DAYS BEFORE A SUNDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROUNDS THROUGH THE LARGELY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY AND PUSHES A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. SFC HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPLY WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
100-200 J/KG, WHICH COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN A
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SOLID
SURFACE HEATING, VEERING WIND PROFILES AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR CAN ALLOW FOR SOME CELLULAR STRUCTURES TOMORROW. LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE POINTS TOWARDS LOW-END TORNADO
PROBABILITIES AS WELL IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE MEAGER
INSTABILITY. SPC HAS RELEASED A DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT
OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
WITH A MORE CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE PRECIPITATION (AND THE
AVAILABILITY OF CAMS NOW) QPF EXPECTATIONS HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN
0.25-0.75 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE UPTICK, LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED
FROM THIS QPF.
AN ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT RETURN
RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. AMPLE HEATING IN
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SETS THE STAGE FOR
STORMS ONCE AGAIN AND THE MACHINE LEARNING MODELS ARE PROJECTING
SOME RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, THE OVERNIGHT TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND A NOTABLE HIGH BIAS EARLY THIS SEASON IN THE
MACHINE LEARNING MODELS ACROSS OUR REGION BRING SOME QUESTION AS
TO HOW REAL A THREAT THIS WILL BE. AT THIS TIME, SPC HAS NO
OUTLOOKS FOR OUR REGION FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE REGION PAIRED WITH OVER 3 DAYS
OF GENERAL WAA AT 850 MB AND A LARGELY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TAKE A 10-15 DEGREE LEAP OVER
YESTERDAY AND RETURN US TO ABOVE NORMAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
SET TO CLIMB AS HIGH AS 15C SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED
WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO
PUNCH INTO THE 70S, WITH UPPER 60S NORTH OF I-80. PROBABILITIES
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 75 DEGREES F ARE OVER 40% SW OF
US-422 AND RISE TO 70-80% SOUTH OF I- 70. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY COULD BE AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES BUT CAN FALL ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES
FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. SFC MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT THAT WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY CONDITIONS LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH.
THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES BETWEEN 18Z
AND 20Z AS THE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND VENTURES SOUTH.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE CONSIDERED STRONG TO SEVERE SOUTH
OF BVI. PERIODS OF LOW VIS AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH
PASSING CONVECTION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT CIGS TO DECREASE TO MVFR
AND POTENTIALLY IFR WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CIGS RETURN LATE MORNING SATURDAY. A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
COULD RETURN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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