420
FXUS61 KPBZ 271147
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
647 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES ARE DECREASING FOR WIDESPREAD WINTER HEADLINES ON
MONDAY. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHIFT OPENS THE DOOR TO HEAVY RAIN
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MID-WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ALBERTA CLIPPER EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY, LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION
2) PROBABILITIES DECREASING FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS MONDAY
3) PATTERN SHIFT IN EARLY MARCH, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, REACHING WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
EASTERN OHIO EARLY SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW, GENERALLY A HALF TO ONE
INCH, IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH, WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR
TRAVEL ISSUES. MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ), SO ONE CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ON MONDAY HAS
DECREASED NOTABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WHILE MODELS STILL
AGREE A SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY, THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINING SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. THE CHANCE OF WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES IS CURRENTLY LOW (BELOW 20%). IF PRECIPITATION DOES
OCCUR, AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE 1-2 INCH MARKER, WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS CONFIDED TO THE RIDGES OF WEST VIRGINIA DUE TO
UPSLOPING. AT THE MOMENT, EASTERN TUCKER IS THE ONLY ZONE THAT
HAS A CHANCE OF LOW-GRADE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONSISTENT LONG-RANGE MODEL DATA INDICATES A DRASTIC TEMPERATURE
SHIFT BEGINNING TUESDAY AND COULD LAST THROUGH MID-MARCH,
ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND A TROUGH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RESULTING
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW, EXTENDING FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY, WILL GENERATE ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NUMEROUS
WESTERN DISTURBANCES.
INDIANA, ILLINOIS, AND MISSOURI CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK
OF FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE PRESENT ALIGNMENT OF THE TROUGH
AND RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE AXIS COULD
EXTEND HIGH WATER ISSUES INTO OHIO AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER NEGLIGIBLE AND COULD
ACCOMPANY THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN EARLY MARCH. THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ESCALATE IF A
DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINES ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
(FROM WARM, MOIST AIR) AND HIGH WIND SHEAR NEAR OUR LOCATION.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A TRICKY FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD THIS MORNING AS
POORLY MODELED LOW STRATUS AND PATCHES OF GROUND FOG IMPACT
ALL TERMINALS BUT FKL. THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BLEED
NORTHWARD BRINGING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AND IS NOW
APPROACHING PIT/AGC AT 12Z. EXPECT THAT IT WILL REACH THOSE
TERMINALS WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LIFR CIGS.
CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG IT LASTS IS LOW GIVEN POOR MODELING, BUT
WOULD IMAGINE THAT IT CAN'T HOLD ON VERY LONG AFTER WE START TO
MIX, SO HAVE QUICKLY ERODED BOTH CIG AND VIS RESTRICTIONS FROM
THE TAFS AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER 12Z.
AFTER THAT, VFR/SKC PREVAILS FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL FRESHEN UP TO 5-10 KNOTS WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW
CIRRUS. LATE TONIGHT, A WEAK WAVE SLIDES THROUGH AND WILL
INCREASE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE AND A POSSIBLE
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS A 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
SLIDES BY. LLWS PROBS ARE HIGHEST FOR FKL/DUJ WHERE THE CORE OF
THE JET IS STRONGEST, BUT THE ONLY TERMINAL LIKELY TO ESCAPE IT
IS MGW.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
WITH SNOW ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...MLB
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