547
FXUS61 KPBZ 120004
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
704 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH PASSING OF THE TROUGH AXIS,
BACKING WINDS, AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
2) GUSTY WIND TODAY, WITH 55 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY WV.
3) RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COLD WEATHER
TREND TO FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH FLAT
LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE
SURFACE WINDS TO BACK OUT OF THE SW, CUTTING OFF CONNECTION
WITH THE LAKES. MOISTURE ALSO RAPIDLY DECREASES IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT, TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND
MIXING WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN GUSTY WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW
MORNING, WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AS SURFACE LEVEL TROUGH
CLIPS US JUST TO THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A TEMPORARY WARMUP (TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE AVERAGE) IS
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DEEPENING TROUGH. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. SNOW CHANCES COULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER
DEEPENS, AND A SURFACE WAVE POSSIBLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM MID-WEEK, A COLDER WEATHER TREND IS
EXPECTED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
2) VFR RETURNS MONDAY MORNING
------------------------------------------------------------
WINDS WILL REMAIN WNW THROUGH THE EVENING AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT
AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT A
FEW INSTANCES OF MVFR VIS AND CIGS THROUGH 06Z BEFORE THE SNOW
SHOWERS FINALLY END FOR GOOD. STILL SOME STRATOCU WILL REMAIN
THROUGH 12Z AND EVEN LASTING A BIT PAST DAWN. MOST TERMINALS
WILL BECOME VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT SOME WINDS
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE LESSENING TO 15
KNOTS TOWARDS DAWN.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR WVZ512-514. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...WM/RACKLEY/LUPO
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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