161  
FXUS61 KPBZ 281434  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
1034 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL  
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH  
FRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING  
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY; HAZARDOUS WEATHER MAY DEVELOP.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE A COLD FRONT.  
- DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.  
 
----------------------------------------------------------------  
 
CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY ERODING WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND  
DIURNAL MIXING. THE 12Z PIT SOUNDING SHOWS SUFFICIENT DRY AIR  
ABOVE 3KFT. WITH LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS RANGING  
BETWEEN -5C TO -2C), HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE  
UPPER-40S/NEAR 50 DEGREES.  
 
A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE WESTERN EDGE  
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS THE AXIS CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT. THE SECOND OF THESE WAVES MAY SPAWN A FEW LIGHT  
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANY  
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF  
PITTSBURGH AND FOCUSED ALONG THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. GIVEN  
THERMAL PROFILES AND LIMITED MOISTURE MOSTLY BELOW THE DGZ,  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS LIGHT RAIN, THROUGH A FEW  
FLAKES AND FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
ACCUMULATION (RAIN OR SNOW) WILL BE MINIMAL AND END FRIDAY  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER SOUTH OF PGH, DRY WEATHER  
CONTINUES FRIDAY.  
- GRADUALLY WARMING DAILY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.  
- GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN TUCKER  
COUNTY WV RIDGES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING  
-  
 
------------------------------------------------------------------  
 
ANY LINGERING LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL END FRIDAY MORNING  
AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND UPPER HEIGHT RISES BEGIN. PLENTIFUL  
SUNSHINE AND RENEWED WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THURSDAY.  
 
AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 55-60KT  
MOUNTAIN WAVE AT 850 MB JUST EAST OF TUCKER COUNTY, WV FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA  
(>40 KNOT GUSTS) HAS INCREASED TO 75-95% IN EASTERN TUCKER.  
STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN DOWNSTREAM, BUT EXPECT THE RIDGES  
TO GET QUITE WINDY WITH 45 TO 55 MPH GUSTS LIKELY AT THE DOLLY  
SODS MESONET SITE.  
 
THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE FLATTENED WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF  
SHORTWAVES CROSSES THE REGION, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OUT  
OF THE MIDWEST. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL  
RETURN WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY  
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
, SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE  
TAF AT THIS TIME. KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.  
- RAINFALL TOTALS SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY OF 2-4 INCHES EXPECTED  
FROM MORGANTOWN WV TO TUCKER COUNTY WV.  
 
----------------------------------------------------------------  
 
A BRIEF LULL IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY, IN THE WAKE OF THE  
LOW AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND STALLS. RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL  
DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT STALLS. FOR NOW, GREATEST POPS  
(25-40%) REMAIN SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARDS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT  
AND EARLY MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION RENEWS. THIS WILL BRING  
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE  
WEST-EAST BOUNDARY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
AS A PHASING AND DEEPENING TROUGH CREATES A DEEPER LOW ON  
TUESDAY, A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM CLOSES OUT THE WET PERIOD WITH  
COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES  
EAST OF AREA.  
 
CSU MLP SHOWS INCREASING SEVERE RISK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THE  
OHIO VALLEY. THE EXCESSIVE RAIN COMPONENT ALSO SHOWS POTENTIAL  
INCREASING MONDAY IN THE OHIO AREA FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. NBM HAS  
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF 2"+ OVER THE NORTHERN WV PORTION OF  
THE FORECAST AREA AND THERE IS CERTAINLY CONCERN FOR 2-4" OF  
RAIN DOWN IN THE MORGANTOWN WV, PRESTON, AND TUCKER COUNTY AREAS  
FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. WPC NOW  
HIGHLIGHTS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON  
MONDAY (DAY 5).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DAY UNTIL A MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL  
PREVAIL FROM THE NORTHWEST/WEST INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE  
LIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
STRATOCU CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WEAK  
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS  
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PIT, WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE  
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE WAVE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS  
POSSIBLE AT MGW, THOUGH THE LATEST MODEL PROBABILITIES OF  
OCCURRENCE ARE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.  
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY WITH  
CROSSING LOW PRESSURE. VFR BRIEFLY RETURNS SUNDAY UNDER HIGH  
PRESSURE, BEFORE RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS RETURN  
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A WARM FRONT.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...HEFFERAN/RACKLEY  
NEAR TERM...HEFFERAN/RACKLEY  
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY  
LONG TERM...CRAVEN/RACKLEY  
AVIATION...WM/HEFFERAN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab PA Page
The Nexlab WV Page
The Nexlab MD Page Main Text Page