195
FXUS61 KPBZ 230602
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MACHINE LEARNING CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM CHANCES
INCREASE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. THIS AFTERNOON, AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MAY SEE A
WINTRY MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
QUIET, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT, MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM, MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW. ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. RECENT MACHINE LEARNING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THAT THESE STORMS, PARTICULARLY IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE CURRENT PROBABILITY OF OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RANGES BETWEEN 15-30% THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ALONG WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, THERE COULD BE A
FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN. THE PROBABILITY
OF 1 INCH OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS IN EASTERN OHIO RANGES BETWEEN
35 TO 45%. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF >= 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
CONSIDERED "LOW" (LESS THAN 10%).
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG AN EXITING COLD FRONT.
MGW WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY MORNING
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN.
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AS DRY
ADVECTION BEGINS UNDER NW FLOW. THIS COLD NW FLOW AND A CROSSING
UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. FKL AND DUJ COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON, AND INCLUDED A TEMPO MENTION FOR THIS. A FEW
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT OTHER AIRPORTS, THOUGH THE
CHANCE APPEARS TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. NW WIND
WILL ALSO INCREASE AS MIXING BEGINS TODAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KT.
VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. RESTRICTION
POTENTIAL RETURNS WITH A THURSDAY WARM FRONT, AND CONTINUES ON
FRIDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...WM
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