346
FXUS61 KRLX 071646
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1246 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON THE WIDESPREAD FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT
UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING - FREEZE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
LOCATIONS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS OPEN. CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A MAJOR WARM UP ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S, WITH TEENS LIKELY IN VALLEYS
SUBJECT TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE.
2) INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY DEAD FUELS.
3) A RAPID WARMING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOARING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 70S
AND 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY
AIRMASS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES WILL ESTABLISH IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MORNING REGIONAL SOUNDINGS
UPSTREAM AT ILN EXHIBIT A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.25 INCHES, UNDERSCORING THE
LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. CONSEQUENTLY, WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE FORECAST. AREAS SUBJECT TO COLD AIR
DRAINAGE AWAY FROM MAJOR RIVERS AND IN SHELTERED HOLLOWS WILL
LIKELY PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS AS COLD, DENSE AIR POOLS NEAR THE
SURFACE. BUILT UP URBAN AREAS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL MARGINALLY BELOW FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE DEEP DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE EASILY
TAPPED DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING PROCESSES WILL EFFICIENTLY TRANSPORT THIS DRY AIR TO THE
SURFACE, CAUSING DEWPOINTS TO CRASH INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMETING
INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
DRY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING NEARLY OVERHEAD WILL
ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX, KEEPING SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND PREVENTING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS FROM BEING MET TODAY/WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY
ESPECIALLY WITH SEVERAL INTERVENING DRYING DAYS SINCE THE LAST
RAINFALL.
RAPID SPRING GREEN UP IS INTRODUCING LIVE FINE FUELS INTO THE
ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT TEMPER THE RISK IN MIXED FUELS.
HOWEVER, THE FOREST FLOOR REMAINS LARGELY UNSHELTERED SINCE
LEAVES ARE ONLY JUST STARTING TO EMERGE ON HARDWOODS ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, MEANING DEAD FOREST LITTER REMAINS HIGHLY
RECEPTIVE TO IGNITION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H500 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
SHIFTING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT
A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STEADILY CLIMB, REACHING THE 70S BY FRIDAY AND PUSHING INTO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS BY SUNDAY. THESE VALUES ARE
ROUGHLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. WHILE A
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AS
IT ENCOUNTERS THE RESILIENT RIDGING AND COMPLEX TERRAIN. ONLY A
STRAY, LIGHT RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES, WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING
DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7 DAY PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD WILL
MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING,
BECOMING CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED
DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515-517-519-521-
524-525.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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