310
FXUS61 KRLX 150936
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
536 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AT 500 AM.
UPDATED THOUGHTS ON SATURDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND THE
UPCOMING STRETCH OF SUMMERLIKE WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. TIMING OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, A SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND A
STREAM OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTS INTO THE AREA, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG AND JUST WEST OF
THE OHIO RIVER, ALIGNED WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE
MOST FORCING.
MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THE MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AS WELL, WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING ANYWHERE
FROM 1,000 TO 2,000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH MODELS
SHOWING DEW POINT VALUES IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION, LIKELY ANYWHERE FROM 25-35
KTS.
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT OF ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A VERY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF
HOT, SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND A PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN SOME SPOTS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL ALLOW MID-LEVEL VORTICITY TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
APPALACHIANS, BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT TO PASS EITHER WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD FLIP THE PATTERN BACK TO COOLER, MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
*SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR FORECAST HIGHS AND PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORDS*
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PATCHY FOG CAN BE SEEN THIS MORNING AT CKB, EKN, AND CRW.
VISIBILITY CAN BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR IFR THROUGH 13Z THIS
MORNING DURING PERIODS OF DENSE FOG. FOG WILL THEN DISSIPATE AT
13Z AND VFR WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY OR MAY NOT DEVELOP AT TIMES AT
CKB, EKN, AND CRW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/15/26
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE ACROSS OH,
KY AND PORTIONS OF WV.
CLIMATE
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
--------------------------------------
MON, 5/18 | TUE, 5/19 |
--------------------------------------
CRW | 91 / 92 (1982) | 93 / 95 (1931) |
HTS | 91 / 92 (1962) | 94 / 92 (1996) |
CKB | 89 / 92 (1962) | 90 / 90 (1959) |
PKB | 91 / 95 (1962) | 94 / 90 (1964) |
BKW | 83 / 87 (1996) | 85 / 89 (1996) |
EKN | 86 / 89 (1911) | 88 / 93 (1996) |
--------------------------------------
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
-------------------------------------------------------
MON, 5/18 | TUE, 5/19 | WED, 5/20 |
-------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 64 / 66 (2020) | 66 / 67 (1987) | 66 / 67 (1910) |
HTS | 66 / 68 (2017) | 69 / 67 (2019) | 67 / 70 (1996) |
CKB | 63 / 64 (2020) | 66 / 66 (2017) | 66 / 66 (2018) |
PKB | 67 / 68 (2017) | 69 / 66 (1949) | 67 / 68 (1996) |
BKW | 63 / 63 (2015) | 63 / 66 (2019) | 63 / 64 (2022) |
EKN | 61 / 61 (2018) | 61 / 62 (2000) | 61 / 65 (1902) |
-------------------------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
CLIMATE...26
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