345  
FXUS61 KRLX 191953  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
353 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COLD FRONT MONDAY. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO PROVIDE PLENTY  
OF SUNSHINE AND A GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS INDEED DEVELOPED ALONG THE  
MOUNTAIN RIDGES AS OF 18Z. THE LIFT FOR THESE STORMS IS  
PRIMARILY DUE TO OROGRAPHICS FROM STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW,  
THOUGH NOT AN IDEAL DIRECTION. LATEST RUN OF RAP INDICATES ML  
CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1200 TO 1400 J/KG RANGE. THE APPROACH OF  
A MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FLOW  
SHOULD ALLOW COVERAGE TO INCREASE A BIT ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS  
IN THE THRU 21Z. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN, CONVECTION CHANCES  
DIMINISH RAPIDLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH NO  
REAL FORCING TO LIFT PARCELS. SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION  
MAY SPILL OVER INTO THE ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES, HOWEVER  
STEERING FLOW SHOULD MOTION STORMS TO NNE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT  
HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING ATTM. HAVING SAID THAT, THE BEST  
ADJACENT LOWLAND LOCATIONS TO SEE ANY CONVECTION LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON WOULD BE SAY FROM SUTTON TO CLARKSBURG.  
 
SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT  
RISK THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES ARE MARGINAL FOR OVERALL  
ORGANIZATION, HOWEVER SURFACE TO MID LEVEL DELTA THETA E VALUES  
AND DCAPE DO SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY WITH  
THE STRONGER COLLAPSING CORES.  
 
MOUNTAIN/ADJACENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY  
AND COVERAGE WITH SUNSET. THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD  
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE IN  
THE WAY INSTABILITY, I HAVE ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR A PREFRONTAL  
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THRU.  
 
A SECONDARY FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS ON MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH  
MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS, THINKING ANY PRECIP WOULD  
BE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VOID OF THUNDER.  
CAA AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS SE OH LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON ON A REFRESHING BREEZE, TAKING UNTIL THE EVENING TO  
ARRIVE EAST OF THE OH RIVER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 244 PM SUNDAY...  
 
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO  
PROVIDE DRY AND ABOUT NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER LIGHT NORTHERLY  
FLOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE  
LOWER 50S LOWLANDS TO THE LOW 40S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. HIGHS  
TUESDAY WILL STAY A AROUND 70 DEGREES LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE  
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...  
 
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA  
AND SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWEST  
FLOW INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THEN, THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM  
SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODEL'S CONSENSUS  
INDICATE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY  
INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE  
FROM THE MID 80S WEDNESDAY, TO AROUND 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY.  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING HOURS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...  
 
MAINLY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHRA/TSRA THRU 00Z WITH SOME TEMPO  
MVFR TS GROUPS FOR EKN/BKN WITH A SCT TO BKN 4-6KFT CU FIELD  
ELSEWHERE. SOME CONVECTION MY SNEAK CLOSE TO CRW AND CKB AFTER  
21Z SUCH THAT VCTS WAS INSERTED IN THE TAF, BUT CONFIDENCE IS  
NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH ON DIRECT IMPACTS. GUSTY SW WINDS 20 TO  
25 KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  
 
AFTER 00Z, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OVERNIGHT. A FEW  
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH  
PREDOMINATE VFR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED.  
 
A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSES MONDAY AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF  
MOISTURE DEPTH, ONLY THINKING ISOLATED SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON FOR  
THE MOUNTAINS AND DRY ELSEWHERE. SOME MORNING MVFR STRATUS IS  
POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OH BUT SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF PKB/HTS. WINDS  
WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON 20 TO 25 KTS AND VEERING TO  
THE W AND EVENTUALLY WNW WITH ANY BKN CU BECOMING SCT.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EXCEPT MODERATE EKN/BKW.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EKN/BKN IN  
SHRA/TSRA THRU 00Z TONIGHT.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...  
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER  
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30  
NEAR TERM...30  
SHORT TERM...RH  
LONG TERM...ARJ  
AVIATION...30  
 
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