436
FXUS61 KRLX 292045
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS LIKELY TO START AS A WINTRY
MIX, AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS. MORE WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN AN ACTIVE AND CHILLY PATTERN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...
GIVEN WPC PROBABILITIES OF 40-50 PERCENT FOR FREEZING RAIN
EXCEEDING A TRACE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SLOPES OF WEBSTER AND
NICHOLAS COUNTIES, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED
TO INCLUDE THESE ZONES FROM 2 AM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW AND A TRACE OF ICE ARE EXPECTED IN THESE
AREAS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WAS SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIPITATION, SPOTTY IN NATURE AS FAR AS
REACHING THE GROUND IN MEASURABLE QUANTITIES, MAKES IN-ROADS
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKER WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL THEN OVERSPREAD
THE AREA TONIGHT, STILL SPOTTY IN NATURE, AND THEN CROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONGEAL IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
THE HELP OF THAT TERRAIN, BEFORE PUSHING ON TO THE EAST DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT YET CODED, A BIT OF DRIZZLE, OR EVEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES, MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
EVENING.
THE TRICK OF THE TALE WITH THIS FORECAST ARISES FROM THE COLD
AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THOUGH SOMEWHAT MODIFIED BY DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY, THE COLUMN WILL
STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT WEST, AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT EAST. WHILE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR, FOR A RELATIVELY CLEAN TRANSITION
TO RAIN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE COLD AIR TO HANG IN
THERE LONGER A LA COLD AIR DAMMING, ALLOWING FREEZING RAIN AND
PERHAPS SLEET IN THE TRANSITION OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS
THERE OVERNIGHT, AND WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION THERE
SUNDAY MORNING.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR SNOW AND POSSIBLY SLEET, AND MAINLY THE FREEZING
RAIN, AS ANY ICE ACCRETION AT ALL CAN CAUSE SLICK CONDITIONS.
THERE IS NO CHANGE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE ADVISORIES,
WHICH STILL ALLOW FOR UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET, AND A
TRACE, OR LIGHT GLAZE, OF FREEZING RAIN, IN WHAT IS OTHERWISE A
GENERALLY LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIPITATION EVENT.
AFTER DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S TONIGHT, BELOW FREEZING IN
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS,
TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, WITH LOW TO MID 30S OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE POLAR-ARCTIC HIGH DOES BRING IN A
SHOT OF AIR COLD ENOUGH TO GIVE RISE TO MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE KEY HERE IS SOUTHERN
STREAM, AND WITH ONLY WEAK PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINALLY LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVEN WITH A
SYNOPTICALLY CORRECT TRACK FOR THE CRYSTALLINE HYDROMETEORS.
WITH THE TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, THE CLASSIC WARM
WEDGE EFFECT SETS UP, WITH SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AT LEAST ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
THE EVENT MAY ACTUALLY START OUT AS JUST RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. THERE MAY BE A TRANSITION ZONE WITH
FREEZING RAIN IN THE WV LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. AT
LEAST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SNOW AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MOUNTAINS ARE WHERE THINGS GET TRICKIEST, WITH A MORE
CLASSIC SETUP FOR COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST THEREOF,
COMPARED WITH THIS WEEKEND. THERE, AT LEAST WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED FOR SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
WHILE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
FALL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER THAN WITH THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN GREATER WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS.
THERE MAY BE A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS
TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE PRECIPITATION
LINGERS LONGEST.
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT WELL DOWN IN THE 20S SUNDAY NIGHT, TEENS
OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN, AND THE RECOVER TO HIGHS FROM THE MID
40S SOUTH TO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND 30S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH THE SYSTEM BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOWLANDS,
AND LOW 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS, MONDAY NIGHT, THEN
RECOVER TO JUST THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY, BEFORE
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
NIGHT, TEENS FAR NORTHWEST AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MAINLY OF POLAR-PACIFIC ORIGIN PROVIDES DRY,
MODESTLY COLD WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. MODELS
DIVERGE ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MID TO
LATE WEEK, BUT DO APPEAR TO CONVERGE ON THE ARRIVAL OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. THE STRONGER THE COLD FRONT, THE MORE
COMPLEX THE FRIDAY SYSTEM COULD BE IN TERMS OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MODEST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM,
WITH EVERY SYSTEM IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE POTENTIALLY PRESENTING
A 0C H85 ISOTHERM THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 125 PM SATURDAY...
CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THAT SYSTEM COULD BRING RAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS LOWLAND LOCATIONS.
THIS PRECIPITATION COULD TAKE THE FORM OF SNOW IF IT STARTS OUT
EARLY ENOUGH TONIGHT. SNOW OR A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
IS MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS IF PRECIPITATION GETS THERE
EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE DAWN MONDAY MORNING, BUT ANY PERSISTENCE OF
THE FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MORNING WOULD MOST LIKELY BE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES EKN AND BKW.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING ARE MOST LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AREA WIDE BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY AT BKW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND ELSEWHERE LATE
TONIGHT OR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE
WHERE SURFACE FLOW DOES NOT PICK UP QUICKLY ENOUGH TONIGHT. THIS
IS MOST LIKELY AT AND CODED UP FOR NORTHERN SITES PKB AND
CKB. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME STRONG SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, AND THEN
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
WVZ516-518-520-522>524-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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