972
FXUS61 KRLX 041836
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2) COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY AND INTERACTS WITH A TRAVERSING
DISTURBANCE. THE END RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT
A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME TALL ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO DROP
SOME SMALL GRAUPEL, BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW TO
NONEXISTENT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK LOW DUE
TO A LATE INITIATION OF ACTIVITY, WHICH WILL OVERALL SQUASH THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL.
A STORM OR TWO MAY STILL BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE DUE TO FORCING
FROM THE FRONT, BUT THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON THE
TOTALS WITH MOST OF THE AREA SITTING BETWEEN 0.75" AND 1.00" AS
OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS RUNS SHOWING GREATER THAN AN INCH ACROSS
SEVERAL SPOTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS
ARE THE CURRENT BULLSEYE FOR GREATER THAN AN INCH.
THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT FFG GUIDANCE IS VERY HIGH AND
THE RAIN IS NEEDED ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN MODERATE TO
SEVERE DROUGHT AREAS AFTER THESE RECENT FEW DRIER DAYS. SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY STILL OCCUR IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS THE
RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY CROSSES THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME
RAIN/STORM CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH THE LOWLANDS BARELY REACHING
60 DEGREES ON THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH THAT SCATTERED FROST WILL BE A CONCERN, PROVIDED
THAT CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS IN TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THOUGH
WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL UNTIL SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL FROST
CONCERNS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MOSTLY VFR TODAY UNDER SCT TO BKN STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS
DECKS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARRANT TEMPORARY MVFR VIS AND
CIGS, ESPECIALLY IF THEY MOVE OVER. TEMPO GROUPS AND VCTS WERE
USED AT MANY SITES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CHANCE POPS. CIGS WILL
LIFT AND SCATTER AROUND OR JUST AFTER ~00Z TONIGHT WITH HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVER AT TIMES.
S-SW FLOW WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. LLWS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
FROM THE WARM FRONT AND HAS BEEN CODED INTO THE TAF AT MOST
SITES AS SFC WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SLACK OFF SOME AFTER ~00Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND IMPACTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY VARY. WIND
GUSTS MAY ALSO VARY THAN FORECASTED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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