169
FXUS61 KRLX 021749
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
2) SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES THE HOT
AND HUMID CONDITONS ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATE FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
DRY AIR INFILTRATE INTO THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS LEVELS ACCORDING
TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL HELP OUT WITH SUPPRESSING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. HI-RES MODELS DO NOT HAVE MUCH ACTIVITY FOR
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THE HRRR DOES HAVE A COMPLEX COMING THROUGH
AND JUST SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 18Z.
SOME ACTIVITY OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR FOR
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY EVENING FURTHER
SOUTH. THIS DRY AIR MAY PROVIDE CAPS AND SUPPRESS THIS SOLUTION.
HOWEVER, SPC DOES KEEP A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. WITH THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR THIS WILL JUSTIFY THE
ISOLATED NATURE. THE MAIN IMPACTS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND/OR LARGE HAIL.
WPC DOES HAVE US IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THIS IMPLIES THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
ALTHOUGH A LOW PROBABILITY WILL EXIST. ESPECIALLY SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN DRY, HOWEVER THE THING WE HAVE GOING FOR US IS HIGH PWATS
WITH SUFFICIENT DCAPE TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO FLOOD PRONE OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
FOR FRIDAY, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
WEATHER. SPC DOES HAVE US IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ENTIRE AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINA WHICH ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND/OR LARGE HAIL. WPC DOES HAVE US UNDER
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, BUT HAS A LOW PROBABILITY
DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THE HEAT ADVISORIES WERE LEFT UNTOUCHED AS FAR AS COVERAGE GOES
ALTHOUGH IT WAS EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY UNTIL 00Z. FOR FRIDAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA AND EXPECTED
CONVECTION MAY RELINQUISH SOME OF THE HEAT INDEX VALUES LATER ON
IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THE MAIN FEATURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FOR SATURDAY, AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA, THEREFORE WE MAY SEE REPRIEVE FROM
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR
STORMS WILL STILL EXIST FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, HOWEVER
THINGS WILL SHAPE UP BY EVENING.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN SUGGEST MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE AREA. DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY ONLY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AND WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, HOWEVER DUE TO THE
PREVIOUS HOT AND HUMID CONDITONS IT WILL FEEL A LOT MORE
COMFORTABLE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE SOME VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND WINDS GO CALM. HAVE
CODED UP IFR OR WORSE AT CRW/EKN AND SOME MVFR AT THE OTHER
SITES EXCEPT FOR BKW. THE FOG AT THESE OTHER SITES SHOULD BE
PATCHY IN NATURE AND ALL FOG SHOULD LIFT EARLY EXCEPT FOR MAYBE
CRW/EKN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST FOR THE
EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN PICKING UP AROUND 5KTS FOR THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT, TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FOG
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS
AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>031.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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