756
FXUS61 KRLX 161651
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1251 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BIT CLOUDIER TODAY INTO EARLY TOMORROW, WITH LOW-END RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FAR EAST. DRY AGAIN TO END THE WORK WEEK, WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1131 AM MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES,
AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER.
AVERAGE HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S,
WHILE AVERAGE HIGHS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
THIS IS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.
DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE, POPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE GENERALLY LIMITED TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1131 AM MONDAY...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FARTHER OUT TO SEA THURSDAY WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND IT. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SUMMERLIKE HEAT TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1131 AM MONDAY...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HIT
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL
FALL TO THE WEST SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS, ALONG WITH SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, MAY ALLOW FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS TO
APPROACH FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT WE WILL STILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
WITH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERING OVER THE APPALACHIANS, CHANCES OF
RAIN ARE LOOKING SLIMMER WITH EACH MODEL RUN. ALTHOUGH WE GREATLY
NEED THE RAIN, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE'LL SEE ANYTHING BENEFICIAL
SOON.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1248 PM TUESDAY...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AREAWIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A MIXTURE OF CIRRUS AND MID-LEVEL STRATUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA
FROM EAST TO WEST.
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, BKN008 CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT KEKN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BETWEEN 07Z AND 14Z. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PREVENT IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE EXPECTED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC
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