742
FXUS61 KRLX 041045
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
545 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BECOMING BREEZY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
WHICH CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS ARRIVE LATE
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH
HIGHS RANGING MID 40S TO UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S IN THE LOWLANDS.
LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
REACH MID 20S. AN ABSENCE OF STRONG WINDS WILL, HOWEVER, HELP TO
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY BE USHERED INTO THE AREA BY A PASSING WARM
FRONT, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S TO
40S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOUT TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MID 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
MID 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE LOWLANDS. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 25 TO 35 MPH IN THE
LOWLANDS AND 30 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY AND BREEZY AS THE MOISTURE DEPRIVED
COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE THEN FACILITATES DRY WEATHER AND A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...
RAIN IS PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TAPERS OFF BEHIND THE
FRONT, LIKELY ALLOWING FOR A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM ARRIVES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEPART SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH
MAY SUSTAIN MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA INTO MONDAY.
RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
SNOW SHOULD START TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AS TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER
SUNDAY NIGHT. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS COULD ALSO
RECEIVE SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 545 AM TUESDAY...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN
HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS AREA WIDE VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. 5-10KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE DAY. A FEW GUSTS INTO THE TEENS MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY RELAX EARLY IN THE NIGHT, THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN AS A
WARM FRONT PASSES BY. THIS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING
OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR VARY FROM THE
FORECAST. LLWS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 11/04/25
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20
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