431
FXUS61 KRLX 150905
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
505 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IN RESPONSE TO FASTER TIMING WITH A
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, AND ISOLATED 90S
POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- 2) ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO
ANOMALOUS HEAT, MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PERCENTAGES IN THE 30S, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND ANTECEDENT DRY
DEAD FUELS WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR A
CONDITIONAL WETTING RAIN.
- 3) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
OHIO. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL IN
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- 4) A STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL END THE
HEATWAVE, BRINGING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STRONG
STORMS EVOLVING INTO A PERIOD OF BENEFICIAL NIGHTTIME RAIN.
- 5) MUCH COOLER AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT
FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES IN THE 20S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY TODAY, AND THEN
REBUILDS FRIDAY BEHIND A THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN THE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER, WITH RECORD TO NEAR-
RECORD HEAT THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH
UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHTS.
THE HOTTEST AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IN THE NEXT KEY MESSAGE
DAMPENING HIGHS A BIT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES WILL BE IN THE
30S FOR ALL BUT INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OHIO THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
AND THEN IN THE 20S NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH WIND GUSTS OF
15 TO 25 MPH MOST DAYS (LESS FRIDAY), AND ONLY A COUPLE OF
OPPORTUNITIES FOR A CONDITIONAL WETTING RAIN, AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED. THIS MAY BE
MITIGATED BY RAPIDLY INCREASED CANOPY COVERAGE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WEAK, FLAT MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SOMEWHAT FOCUS
LOW COVERAGE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH A CORRIDOR OF INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO
THE NORTH AND WEST, THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAN
BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING
WIND, GIVEN MARGINALLY ADEQUATE SHEAR AMID LARGE TEMPERATURE-
DEW POINT SPREADS.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION PASSING WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. AMID FASTER TIMING, THE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO GET
CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SHEAR AMID AFTERNOON HEATING AT LEAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, AND A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL THERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS, THE
NEXT ONE IN THE NEXT KEY MESSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS THIS TROUGH DRIVES A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM IS AGAIN LIKELY TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE INSTABILITY FORECAST WILL AGAIN NEED
WATCHED GIVEN THE INCREASED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM,
AND TIMING NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING. OF NOTE IS
THE EXPANSIVE SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA DEPICTED UPSTREAM OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ON DAY
3, FRIDAY, RANGING AS HIGH AS ENHANCED. THIS THEN TRANSLATES TO
A SLIGHT, OR 15 PERCENT RISK, OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR DAY 4,
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN PROVIDE MINIMAL DROUGHT RELIEF ALTHOUGH
THE EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SOMEWHAT
BENEFICIAL NIGHTTIME WETTING RAIN. ANOTHER DRY PERIOD IS TO
FOLLOW, NEXT KEY MESSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 5...
A PERIOD OF DRY, COOLER WEATHER WILL START THE NEW WEEK, AS
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A LARGE MID/UPPER-
LEVEL LONG WAVE BUT TRANSIENT TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DROPS H85 TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY, TO AROUND 5 C BELOW 0 GIVE OR TAKE SUNDAY NIGHT,
COMPARED WITH THE 15 C OR SO TEMPERATURES OF THE CURRENT EARLY
SEASON HEAT WAVE. HIGHS WILL RETREAT TO THE 50S TO LOW TO MID
60S F FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH AREAS SUBJECT TO COLD AIR
DRAINAGE AWAY FROM MAJOR RIVERS SEEING FROST POTENTIAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, THOUGH THE HIGH UN-STRATEGICALLY CROSSES
OVERHEAD LATE MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE PROMPTLY FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT, AS THE EXITING HIGH ALLOWS RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE EXITING HIGHS, AND BENEATH RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH ALTHOUGH ANOTHER MAY DROP IN MIDWEEK. THE DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES, TO INCLUDE THE LACK OF RAIN AND LOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH A DRIER DAY IN STORE.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AGAIN TONIGHT. MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MIX THROUGH TO
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TODAY, BEFORE BECOMING MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE MAY BE MINIMAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FLUCTUATE, POSSIBLY INCLUDING
STRONGER GUSTS THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 04/15/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF
MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
DAYTIME RECORD HIGHS CHALLENGED AT LEAST TODAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
------------------------------------------------------------------------
WED, 4/15 | THU, 4/16 | FRI, 4/17 | SAT, 4/18 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 89 / 89 (1994) | 86 / 89 (2002) | 82 / 89 (1976) | 88 / 90 (2019) |
HTS | 89 / 87 (2024) | 85 / 89 (2024) | 84 / 87 (1976) | 87 / 89 (1955) |
CKB | 86 / 83 (1974) | 83 / 86 (2002) | 77 / 88 (1969) | 85 / 88 (1976) |
PKB | 87 / 84 (2024) | 84 / 88 (2002) | 80 / 89 (1976) | 86 / 91 (1976) |
BKW | 83 / 82 (2012) | 81 / 84 (2002) | 77 / 84 (1976) | 82 / 86 (1976) |
EKN | 84 / 81 (2012) | 82 / 85 (2012) | 76 / 87 (1976) | 83 / 88 (1976) |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
CLIMATE...TRM
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