408
FXUS61 KRLX 131207
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
707 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A
STRONG CLIPPER. BITTER COLD SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWING AN
ARCTIC FRONT, THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...
ARCTIC AIR WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE ARCTIC FRONT LEADING THE CHARGE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND ARRIVE IN
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, AND THEN CROSS TONIGHT. AN
INCREASINGLY FLUFFY SNOW ARRIVES WITH THE FRONT, OR EVEN JUST
AHEAD OF IT, BUT THE BULK OF THE SNOW OCCURS IN ANAFRONT FASHION
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A FLAT WAVE AS THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH LAGS BEHIND. SNOW RATIOS START OUT MODEST, AROUND
15 TO ONE THIS AFTERNOON, NUT THEN LOWER TO AS LOW AS 25 TO 1 BY
DAWN SUNDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS UPGRADED FROM THE WATCHES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND 6 TO 10 INCHES IN AND JUST WEST OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, TO 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE
HOISTED FARTHER SOUTH FOR 1 TO 4 INCHES, BUT NOT INCLUDING FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS IS EXPECTED AS THE SNOW BAND, NOT QUITE THE WIDTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, TRAVERSE.
THE SNOW TAPERS OFF BY DAWN SUNDAY MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN AND
JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, AND THEN
ONLY SLOWLY TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, WITH FLURRIES
IN THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS
IN THE ARCTIC AIR EVEN INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT DOES NOT TAP MUCH WARM
AIR OR MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT DOES BUOY LOWLAND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THEN
CRASH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT, AND WILL BE IN THE 10S BY SUNDAY MORNING, SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OF
15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES, WIND CHILLS
DROP WELL INTO THE 10S BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND THE
COLD WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEGINS AT 4 AM THERE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 420 AM SATURDAY...
HAVE UPGRADED THE COLD WEATHER WATCHES FOR THE HIGHEST RIDGES
TO WARNINGS FOR THE HIGHEST RIDGES FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING, AND HAVE ISSUED COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES HE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, FOR SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL LATE MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE COVERED FOR RUPTURED WATER PIPES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
ALSO SNUCK IN A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY COUNTY FOR
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WITHOUT THE LONG DURATION COLD CAUSING
RUPTURED PIPES.
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...
SNOW IN AND JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AND CUTS OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES GO ALMOST NOWHERE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, EVEN
DROPPING DOWN TO ZERO ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
THE COLDEST DAYTIME PERIOD SO FAR THIS SEASON ON SUNDAY, AND
THEN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
MONDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, NEAR OR EVEN BELOW
ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, BUT WARMING AT FIRST IS MOST
IMPRESSIVE ALOFT. H7 TEMPERATURES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY, FROM -23C
AT 21Z SUNDAY TO 0C AT 00Z TUESDAY, OR 23C IN 27 HOURS, AS A
STOUT MID-LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL
BACK INTO THE 10S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT
SOUTH FLOW LIKELY TO DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS, WHERE IT WILL BE
COLDEST. THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW, ALONG WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUD STREAKING ACROSS, DO MAKE CONDITIONS A BIT LESS THAN IDEAL
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING.
STRONG WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL CREATE WIND
CHILLS RANGING FROM THE -20 TO N-25 F RANGE OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN, TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
THIS WARRANTS UPGRADING AT LEAST MOST OF THE COLD WEATHER
WATCHES TO WARNINGS AND WRAPPING THEM WITH COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES. LOWEST WIND CHILLS COULD GET CLOSE TO THE -5 F
CRITERIA ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...
STOUT SURFACE WARMING TAKES PLACE, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS
INCREASING IN CHUNKS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS THE TROUGH-
IN-THE-EAST AND RIDGE-IN-THE-WEST PATTERN GIVES WAY TO THE NEXT
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NATION. AFTER DRY WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THAT TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT, WITH RAIN,
NOT SNOW, ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
LOWER ELEVATION HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S TUESDAY,
40S ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ALL THE WAY UP TO THE 50S ON THURSDAY,
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. SEASONABLY
CHILLY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
ACTUALLY A BIT ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, FRIDAY
AND EVEN SATURDAY MORNINGS, AMID A BRIEF SHOT OF POLAR AIR IN A
FAST ZONAL FLOW FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH.
A MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE EXITING POLAR HIGH,
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND,
WHEN MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN
THE ZONAL FLOW.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW IMPACT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WERE ALREADY IFR TO VLIFR RANGE ACROSS SOUTHERN SITES
CRW/HTS, AND MVFR NORTH CKB/PKB, WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE MOUNTAIN SITES EKN/BKW WERE ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD, WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THEY
WILL HAVE MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES THIS MORNING, AND ALL SITES WILL
DROP TO IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS IN/AHEAD OF THE SNOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF IFR TO VLIFR VISIBILITY DURATION /START-END/ IN SNOW
IS 20Z-06Z PKB, 23Z-07Z CKB, 01Z-08Z EKN, AND 02Z-07Z CRW AND
HTS. BKW MAY HAVE BRIEF IFR IN SNOW DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
ON SUNDAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING BECOME NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ONSET OF
IFR SNOW IS JUST AHEAD OF OR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY DAWN SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY BECOMES LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ALOFT TONIGHT, AND THEN MODERATE
NORTHWEST BY DAWN SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CEILING CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY
TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH TIMING MAY VARY,
INCLUDING POSSIBLE EARLIER START TIMES.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H L H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H M H H H H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H M H M H H M M
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN STRATUS, AND PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013-024>026-515>518-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR WVZ007>011-014>020-027>032-519-520.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ032>034-039-040-515>522-524-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EST
MONDAY FOR WVZ039-040-521>523-525-526.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ523-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR OHZ087.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ066.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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