603
FXUS61 KRLX 120003
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
803 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS QUIETLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONVECTION
ENTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AT THE TIME OF WRITING.
THE EARLIER TORNADO WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO END AND NO ADDITIONAL
WATCHES HAVE BEEN WARRANTED.
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AS MANY LOCATIONS IN THE CHARLESTON METRO
AREAS AND EASTWARD REMAIN MILD THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY DUE TO
LACKLUSTER CONVECTIVE TRENDS THUS FAR AND MAINTAINING STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TUMBLE DOWN TO
ANTICIPATED LOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT
TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
328 PM UPDATE...
THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO NORTH CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA, WITH THE WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TODAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. PRECIPITATION THEN TRANSITIONS TO
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE
HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
- 2) ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST, WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOLLOWING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, PROGGED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A
TORNADO WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA UNTIL 5 PM. THE MAIN THREATS CONTINUE TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES,
WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE CAN BECOME AFTER
THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH, BUT SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT GIVEN STRONG KINEMATICS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT
QUICKLY TAPERS BY LATE THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT CROSSES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF OVER AN INCH ALREADY BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH SOME TRAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN HOW FAST
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MOVES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, HAVE OPTED
TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING DO REMAIN POSSIBLE, HOWEVER,
ESPECIALLY IF HEAVIER RAIN MOVES OVER LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCED FLOODING RECENTLY WITH THE LAST EVENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK,
PUSHING THE LOW 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS. IN
ADDITION, IT WILL BE BREEZY OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. GIVEN SUCH, HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS FROM CENTRAL
GUIDANCE, WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS HIGHER THAN THAT
POSSIBLE.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES TONIGHT MAY
RESULT IN A BRIEF TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE A SLUSHY HALF INCH TO AN INCH COULD BE
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE RECENT WARMTH AND WET
ANTECEDENT GROUND FROM RAIN, MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, AND
MAINLY ABOVE 3500 FEET. DRIER WEATHER QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AMID MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 45 MPH WILL BRIEFLY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS (30 TO 40 MPH)
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND, BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TO THE AREA THIS EVENING ALONGSIDE
GUSTY WINDS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS QUICKLY TAPERED
DOWN IN THE FORECAST AREA, BUT ONE PESKY STORM HEADING TOWARDS
BKW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR COULD POSE BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS
IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A BLAST OF COLDER AIR
TRICKLES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL PROMOTE A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
OPTED TO INCLUDE THE LAST LINE OF PRECIPITATION MENTION AS
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS SHOWERS
QUICKLY DEPART EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER
DOWN INTO IFR/MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES
ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
GUSTY WINDS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STRETCH INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. INTENSITY OF SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST
AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF PERIOD, BECOMING 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS
WILL FLUCTUATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H M H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SET (R) OR TIED (T) ON
TUESDAY, AND A FEW MORE MAY BE SET OR TIED TODAY.
OBS-FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
---------------------------------------
TUE, 3/10 | WED, 3/11 |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 81R/ 80 (2009) | 82 / 83 (1990) |
HTS | 81R/ 80 (2009) | 83 / 83 (1990) |
CKB | 78 / 79 (1973) | 79 / 78 (1973) |
PKB | 78 / 79 (2009) | 79 / 78 (1990) |
BKW | 74 / 77 (2016) | 77 / 74 (2006) |
EKN | 78T/ 78 (2016) | 79 / 76 (2006) |
---------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05/GW
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...TRM/GW
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