954
FXUS61 KRLX 150020
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
820 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
157 PM UPDATE...
ADJUSTED DEW POINTS DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OF MIXING INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT.
STILL EXPECT INSTABILITY LIMITED GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HIGHLIGHTED THE WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS FREEZE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. VERY DRY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT.
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
2. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY.
3. TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH ON MONDAY, TRANSITIONING RAIN TO
SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
4. A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, POSING A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD TO ANY VERY EARLY
SEASON VEGETATION THAT HAS EMERGED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT
PARTLY SKIES AND AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS MIXING TO THE
SURFACE. DEW POINTS HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS ACROSS THE REGION, DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH, PREVENTING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, THE 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES FROM
REGIONAL RAWS SITES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 10. THIS INDICATES THAT
FINE-SMALL DEAD FUELS ARE HIGHLY RECEPTIVE TO IGNITION.
OVERNIGHT BURNING IS DISCOURAGED TONIGHT TO LIMIT THE RISK OF
ANY HOLDOVER EMBERS SUNDAY.
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY JUST SOME THIN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS, SETTING UP STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT A PRONOUNCED RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO DEVELOP. COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES SHARPLY IN THE HOLLOWS AND OTHER PROTECTED VALLEYS
WHILE THE RIDGES REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM. INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THE RIDGES HEADING INTO DAYBREAK.
ON SUNDAY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WHILE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM,
THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS AND RESTRICT
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM FLUX. CONSEQUENTLY, SURFACE GUSTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER,
LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER, AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE COULD
TRANSPORT STRONGER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A HIGHLY DYNAMIC MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL TRACK TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT, SWINGING A POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THE
SEVERE WIND THREAT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOW A DISTINCT LACK
OF INSTABILITY, WITH MLCAPE VALUES REMAINING NEGLIGIBLE.
HOWEVER, KINEMATICS ARE EXTREME, CHARACTERIZED BY AN H850 JET
SURGING TO 60-70KTS.
GIVEN THE INTENSE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND THE PRESENCE OF MODEST
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BELOW H850 FOR THE MORNING HOURS, DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE
WITHIN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A FAST-MOVING LINE IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AT 40 TO 50 MPH. FURTHERMORE,
INTENSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR YIELDS A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR ISOLATED,
BRIEF TORNADOES WITHIN THE LINE. SHOULD ANY SPIN-UPS OCCUR, THE
RAPID FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM WOULD LEAD TO A PATH OF
ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TORNADIC
CIRCULATION WITH DAMAGE THAT WOULD LIKELY LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WILL LIKELY END UP WITH AN OVERARCHING
PRODUCT, SPS OR WIND ADVISORY TO COVER THE MORE WIDESPREAD
EFFECTS OF THIS MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ALONG WITH NON-CONVECTIVE
WINDS AND TARGET ANY STRONGER CELLS OR TYPICAL QLCS TROUBLE
SPOTS WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR TORNADO WARNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING, INTENSE COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A SEVERELY NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH FROM THE 50S AND 60S EARLY MONDAY
MORNING DOWN INTO THE 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW SYNOPTIC WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CRASHES BELOW FREEZING, PRECIPITATION
WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS. DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS, THE RELATIVELY WARM GROUND CONDITIONS AND HIGHER
MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL LARGELY MITIGATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER, HEADING INTO MONDAY EVENING, SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY REPLACED BY A NORTHWESTERLY FETCH OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN, ESTABLISHING A LAKE-ENHANCED UPSLOPE SNOW PATTERN.
WHILE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE REMAINS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
APPEARS RELATIVELY ROBUST, BUT WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED AS THE
MOISTURE SOURCE IS REPLACED. COULD EVENTUALLY NEED SOME LOW END
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WITH 1-2" ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 2-4" IN THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY MORNING, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID-TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PROMOTE
ANOTHER NIGHT OF EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS HARD
FREEZE WILL BE DAMAGING TO UNPROTECTED SENSITIVE EARLY-SEASON
VEGETATION THAT HAS EMERGED WITH RECENT WARM AND WET CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PERUSING THE AREA TONIGHT WILL POSE NO
CONCERNS TO FLIGHT RULES AHEAD OF A SYSTEM ARRIVING FOR THE END
OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT PRESSES NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY
MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. WINDS
ALOFT NEARING 40-45KTS WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR
GUSTS BEFORE DAWN. THIS WILL THEN TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE UPWARDS
OF 20 TO 30 KTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DASHING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 03/15/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...05
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