665
FXUS61 KRLX 282307
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
707 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
706 PM UPDATE... NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION.
253 PM UPDATE... DECREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH PRIMARILY JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS.
AVIATION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS BENEFICIAL RAINFALL LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
2.) MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED JUST WEST OF THE AREA, WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME VERY MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THUS FAR, BUT GIVEN A FAIRLY STOUT CAP IN
PLACE NEAR ~ H800, ANTICIPATE MAINLY JUST ISOLD SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OVER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. LOW END PROBABILITIES ARE SAYING AT
LEAST A WIDESPREAD TENTH OR TWO, WITH HIGH END PROBABILITIES OF
OVER AN INCH. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE OF THE BENEFICIAL VARIETY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON HOW MUCH HEATING CAN OCCUR BEHIND
THE INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF ENOUGH
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OCCURS GIVING CLEARING, SOME
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH. DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD PROVIDE SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER WEATHER QUICKLY BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH JUST LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS
POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MUCH COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MEANDERS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF PROLONGED GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES AMID THE BROADER UPPER
AIR PATTERN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-50%), BUT IN GENERAL, MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, POSSIBLY
FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. AT THE CURRENT
TIME, IT APPEARS THAT SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN START TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
TONIGHT; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
CURTAILED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND 8 TO 14 KTS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE
15 TO 25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COULD VARY. FOG COULD
LEAD TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT A FEW TERMINALS TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H L H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M L
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...20
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