211
FXUS61 KRLX 241542
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1142 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DEPENDING ON TIMING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S SUPPORTING
DECENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. MESO NAM SHOWING EFFECTIVE
LAYER CAPES OVER 2000 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPES OVER 3000. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25 TO 40 KTS WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT STORM ORGANIZATION. MESO NAM SHOWING
DCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1300. GIVEN A DRY MID-LEVEL LAYER AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES, DOWNDRAFT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND HAIL
SURVIVAL WILL BE ENHANCED, SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXPECT VFR CONDITONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT MAY
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
VALLEY FOG LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY
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