996
FXUS61 KRLX 150856
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
456 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY OUTSIDE OF A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. TURNING HOTTER
THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SURFACE AND ALOFT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1215 AM FRIDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FIRMLY OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AT NIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A COUPLE
OF WEAK AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS TODAY, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...
THE WEEKEND STARTS OFF WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WHICH WILL BOTH
KEEP THE AREA MAINLY SETTLED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE
HIGH START TO WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS INTO OUR
AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL THING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE HEAT
TO WHERE HEAT INDEXES START TO INCREASE TO NEAR THE 100 DEGREE
CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY IN CERTAIN AREAS SUCH AS THE TRI- STATE
AND CHARLESTON METRO AREAS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TO
DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT CERTAIN LOCATIONS NEED A HEADLINE OR NOT,
BUT AT THIS TIME ELECTED TO NOT ISSUE ANYTHING AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL PROMOTE CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO OUR NORTHERN SECTORS OF THE CWA, BUT
WITH THE HELP OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST BUILDING
BACK INTO OUR REGION, THIS WILL AID IN RESTRICTING THOSE
CHANCES TO JUST LOW END DUE TO DRIER AIR INFILTRATING INTO THE
UPPER LEVELS AND CONSEQUENTLY STARVING THE FRONT OF MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTHERN SECTORS. WITH A SLIGHT BREAK IN BETWEEN THEN AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
AGAIN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING ACROSS THE
REGION TO OUR NORTH PROVIDING DIURNAL CONVECTION POTENTIAL WITH
AN AMPLY MOISTURE INFLUX.
THE SHORT WAVE TAKES ITS TIME TO CROSS THROUGH THE REGION
PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF DIURNAL DESTRUCTION FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, EVEN FRIDAY AS IT FINALLY EXITS TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO THE AREA
FOR THE DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO REMAIN ON
THE TABLE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
GET TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR HEAT INDEXES, THEREFORE HEAT
WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FROM MIDWEEK ON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH BASICALLY LOW END CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.
TEMPERATURES PROFILES WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD
UNTIL REACHING SEASONABLE BY FRIDAY, THIS DECREASE WILL STILL
NOT ALLOW US TO FORGET ABOUT HEAT INDEXES IN THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PROMOTE HEAT
INDEXES IN THE LOW 100S FOR ISOLATED AREAS PARTICULARLY AROUND
THE TRI-STATE AREA.
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION AND
SUPPORT STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASED WIND
SHEAR AND VORTICITY MAXES ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
HIGH DEWPOINTS AND MODEST DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROVIDE THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH THE RIGHT ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 500 AM FRIDAY...
FOG MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WITH SOME CUMULUS TODAY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A COUPLE OF WEAK AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS TODAY.
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG LIFTING COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 08/15/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H L M M M M M L H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L L M L L H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M L H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M L H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...RPY
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