384
FXUS61 KRLX 240957
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
557 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
557 AM UPDATE...
~12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
235 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR THE ~06Z TAF PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN
INTACT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED EACH
MORNING. PATCHY FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED. DRY WEATHER
AND COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND STARTING NEXT WEEK. THE LOWLANDS WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH MID 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON.
DEW POINTS WILL BE A BIT ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH THE LOWLANDS
STAYING IN THE 40-50 RANGE THIS WEEK, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE IN THE 30-45 RANGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY RH VALUES IN THE 30-50%
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM MOST OF THE
WEEK THOUGH, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEK
AND PATCHY FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, BUT THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS
COULD SEE IT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
A DRY, BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND
PARK ACROSS OUR NORTHERN PERIPHERY. RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN BY
NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BY ~14Z AFTER VALLEY FOG LIFTS AND
SCATTERS THIS MORNING. SITES IMPACTED ARE CRW AND PKB WHERE IFR
OR LOWER COULD BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BE CALM THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS AFTERNOON. A SE'RLY INCREASE OCCURS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE RIDGES OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 7 AND 12
KNOTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND IMPACTS FROM FOG MAY
VARY THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY FOG.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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