998
FXUS61 KRLX 270717
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
317 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
LOWERED DEW POINTS BY A FEW DEGREES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS A POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
MODELS STILL DIVERGE FOR END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND, BUT A WET
PATTERN MAY FORM COME NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK, OUTSIDE OF CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. WET PATTERN MAY SET UP BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH REMAINS AN INFLUENCE KEEPING MOST OF
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF, DRY AND COOLER. A MASSIVE,
990-MB COASTAL LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND. STREAMS OF
CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT UNTIL THIS LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA IN CANADA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS,
PARTICULARLY THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION, AS WELL AS NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. DUE TO THE ARIDITY OF OUR AIR MASS, QPF WILL BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
OUTSIDE OF THESE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, THE WEATHER
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
FRONT WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND PARK OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH THIS FRONT AS IT HANGS AROUND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LACKING WITH MODELS SHOWING A
LARGE DIVERGENCE IN OUTCOMES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT ODDS
ARE FAVORING A REEMERGENCE OF A WET PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 50S
AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS MORNING WILL MAY PROVE TO BE
THE COOLEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING 40S, AND COLD SPOTS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY REACH THE UPPER 30S. CLOUD
COVER WOULD BE THE SOLE HINDRANCE FOR THIS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CLOUD COVER STREAMING OVERHEAD OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, COURTESY OF
THE NOR'EASTER OFFSHORE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL CREATE SOME
HEADACHES FOR THE FOG FORECAST. MOST NOTABLY AT CKB AND EKN.
MVFR OR IFR FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN BETWEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LATER THIS MORNING FROM ~09-12Z. CRW IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
HTS AND PKB. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT BKW FROM ~10-12Z.
RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE BETWEEN ~12-15Z THIS MORNING, THEN
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM THIS MORNING, BUT WILL PICK UP OUT
OF THE NW BY MID-MORNING, BREEZY TO GUSTY AT TIMES WITH 10-20
KNOTS IN THE LOWLANDS AND 20-35 KNOTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG THIS MORNING MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST. SHOWERS MAY END UP BEING MORE SCATTERED
THAN FORECAST THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 09/27/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H L L M M M M M L H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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