947
FXUS61 KRLX 040128
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
928 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO KNOCK OUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPC
HAS TRIMMED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHWESTWARD, VIRTUALLY OUT OF OUR AREA, FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.
1236 PM UPDATE...
UPDATE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND
SATURDAY. CHANGES TO COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. AVIATION
FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND SATURDAY. DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND HAIL
WILL BE MAIN HAZARDS TODAY, BUT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO SATURDAY.
2) FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS FOR MULTIPLE NIGHTS NEXT WEEK BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO KNOCK OUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AS SOME
CAMS STILL INDICATE SOME OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT THERE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE ESPECIALLY STRONG NOR HEAVY, AND SPC HAS
TRIMMED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHWESTWARD, VIRTUALLY OUT OF OUR AREA, FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. THE TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
AREA SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN THERE, AS THE COLD FRONT ALONG WHICH
THEY ARE GENERATING REVERSES COURSE, AS A WARM FRONT.
1236 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING,
BUT MODELS SHOW DISSIPATION AND CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS THEN SCATTERED
STORMS WILL START TO FIRE BY 2PM OR 3PM, SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY'S
SETUP. OTHERWISE, THESE MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL IMPEDE
THE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON ROUND.
DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN RISKS
TODAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
MID-OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES TODAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WANE
SHARPLY AFTER SUNSET AROUND 8PM-9PM.
SATURDAY BRINGS A MORE WIDESPREAD CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DISCRETE CELLS WILL
LIKELY START POPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MAIN LINE OF
STORMS THAT MODELS SHOW MOVING IN AFTER SUNSET. MODELS STILL DON'T
EXACTLY AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE MAIN LINE. GFS AND EURO SHOW
EARLIER ARRIVAL BETWEEN 6PM AND 8PM, WHILE THE NAM AND CANADIAN
BRING THE LINE THROUGH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET BETWEEN 7PM AND 9PM.
DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SATURDAY'S STORMS. THERE IS
THE LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND TRI-STATE AREA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) EXISTS FOR
SATURDAY. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL BE THE MAIN FACTORS IN THE SEVERITY OF THE STORMS.
THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED TO MINOR FLOODING SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS CURRENT QPF HAS BETWEEN 0.50" AND 1.00" OF RAINFALL
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COALFIELDS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK LEADING TO MORE INSTANCES OF
DRIER WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES
STAYING IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY; SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE
UPPER 30S OR 40S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S LEADING TO MULTIPLE
NIGHTS OF FROST OR FREEZE FOR OUR ACTIVE GROWING SEASON
COUNTIES. MOST OF THE AREA IS IN ACTIVE GROWING SEASON OUTSIDE
OF PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS(AREAS ABOVE 2,500 FEET).
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL GRAZE OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY WITH SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS STAYING TO
OUR NORTH, BUT THE GFS AND EURO GIVE THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS
SOME VERY LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW ON TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND LOOKS
TO START ON WEDNESDAY CARRYING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT AMID A VERY WARM AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THIS EVENING DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN OHIO THIS EVENING WILL SCOOT EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT AND NORTHERN WV
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ONE OF THESE MAY DIRECTLY IMPACT PKB AND/OR
CKB LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATURDAY WILL ALSO START WITH VFR STRATOCU STILL PRESENT, WITH
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
THAT ACTIVITY THEN TREKKING EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND A
BIT GUSTY AGAIN SATURDAY, TO 15 TO AROUND 20 KTS. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY,
STRONGEST OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WHERE OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE. FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY
NIGHT, AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DIRECTLY
IMPACT PKB AND/OR CKB TONIGHT, AND THEN MOST ANY LOCATION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING AND LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COULD VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM/LTC
AVIATION...TRM
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