807
FXUS61 KRLX 090914
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
514 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) QUIETER TODAY. ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FIRED ALONG A BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH LAST NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, ALTHOUGH ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATER TODAY AS A WAVE PASSES BY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
EXPECTING CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
BUT CHANCES FOR SEVERE LOOK TO REALLY LIE MORE DURING THE DAYTIME
AND EVENING/NIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY, WHEN A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOOKS
TO FORM ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT
THE AREA TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY BEYOND, BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS CAN FINALLY TAKE HOLD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE IS THIS FAR OUT, EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING AND PATH OF ANY COMPLEXES ARE
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. BUT, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK, WITH DAMAGING
WIND AND FLOOD THREATS. NATIONAL CENTERS HAVE ALREADY OUTLOOKED
THE AREA FOR SEVERE AND FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH THESE
COMPLEXES.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN SPOTS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN LAST NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13Z, WITH VFR
EXPECTED AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, ALTHOUGH, IN
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN
VICINITY OF STORMS.
AFTER 09Z MONDAY, IFR FOG MAY FORM IN DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
INCLUDING AT SITE KEKN, BUT MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN FOG FREE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE VALLEY FOG COULD FORM TONIGHT THAN
ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L H L M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H L M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M L M M H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L H M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK, PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG
AND/OR LOW CEILINGS EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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