402
FXUS61 KRLX 182309
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
709 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
720 PM UPDATE... NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
1226 PM UPDATE... A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND LAWRENCE COUNTY
KENTUCKY THROUGH 06Z. LATEST THOUGHTS ON TODAY'S FLOODING THREAT
BELOW. 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING RAIN MAY LEAD TO FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA COALFIELDS AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TODAY.
2) ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING,
LINGERING RAIN MAY PRODUCE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING,
AN EXTENSIVE LINE OF WEST-EAST TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRAJECTORY
OF THESE TRAINING STORMS, DICKENSON, BUCHANAN, AND MCDOWELL
COUNTIES MAY BE AT GREATEST RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THIS
EVENING, POTENTIALLY CREATING FLOODING PROBLEMS. A FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE I-64
CORRIDOR, WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING AROUND 2.00
INCHES FOR THIS AREA, WHICH REINFORCES THE CONCERN OF FLOODING
DOWNPOURS THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DRIER AIR SHOULD RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN, AND THE DRY WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAINFALL. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALONG WITH A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREAWIDE MONDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE 1.80 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WHICH REINFORCES THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
BEYOND SUNDAY, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS MESSY. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT LINGERING ENERGY IN THE 500-MB FLOW WILL PREVENT A
TOTALLY DRY FORECAST. FOR NOW, POPS WILL BE KEPT TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST. IN ADDITION TO BRIEF SUB-VFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS,
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND ANY AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOG DISSIPATES AND CEILINGS LIFT BY MID
TO LATE MORNING, ALLOWING AREA WIDE VFR TO RETURN FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL RELAX AND BECOME CALM TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 12 KTS ON FRIDAY WITH 15
TO 25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AND EXTENT OF FOG
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
IN THE MORNING MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H L L
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG SATURDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005-013-024>026-033-
034-515-516.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...20
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