847
FXUS61 KRLX 090914
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
514 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) DRY FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
2.) ISAIAS MOVES INTO THE REGION, PROVIDING A SOAKING RAIN FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OHIO.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONTINUED DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROGGED TO BE AS
CHILLY OWING TO INCREASED FLOW AND CLOUD COVER.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW ONCE AGAIN, GENERALLY IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT, FIRE DANGER RISK REMAINS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION BY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY
OF ISAIAS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MTNS AND PERHAPS
PARTS OF SE OHIO SEEING PRECIPITATION FIRST, WITH PARTS OF WV
LOWLANDS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE REGIONS REMAINING DRIER AT THE START,
BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE LOW NUDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON SUNDAY, AND FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH TIME.
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS LINGERING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE RAINY WEATHER, BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTS THE AREA
MID WEEK, PROVIDING FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS AND SE OHIO COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FROM
THIS FOR NOW, THOSE AREAS ARE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. BUT THE PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING OF AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS, PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. DRY CONDITIONS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT
SHOULD HOPEFULLY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT OR OVERLY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES.
IN ADDITION, THE RISK FOR TREE FALL WILL BE INCREASED ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY AS THE GROUND BECOMES SATURATED
IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF ISAIAS. THIS OF COURSE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK
OF POWER OUTAGES DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PATCHY VALLEY FOG THROUGH 14Z, WITH LOCAL IFR RESTRICTIONS.
AFTER 14Z, VFR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH AFTER 06Z, SE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS,
AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE TEENS,
INCLUDING AT SITE KBKW.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS,
HOWEVER, WITH A GRADUAL UPTICK IN WINDS EXPECTED TOWARDS DAWN OR
EARLIER, AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER, WILL BE LIMITED IN NATURE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M L H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IN DEEPER/SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS SATURDAY
MORNING, AND IN RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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