661
FXUS61 KRLX 221420
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
920 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY. QUIET
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN DURING THE
WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS THIS MORNING,
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES NEEDED. QUIET DAY ON ITS WAY.
AS OF 430 AM SATURDAY...
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS GOOD RADIATIVE
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND HAS ALLOWED LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE CLEARED TO DROP TO OR BELOW FORECAST LOWS.
AS OF 1200 AM SATURDAY...
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY
PROVIDING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MODELS AREN'T SHOWING THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND FROM THIS SYSTEM.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME MESO
MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH A WESTERLY FLOW TO SQUEEZE SOME PRECIPITATION OUT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MESO NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE IS TOO
SHALLOW AND MOS POP GUIDANCE AT ELKINS IS 3 AND 0, SO OPTED TO
LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. LOWERED SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DUE TO SNOW COVER AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS, IF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DON'T FORM IN THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* DRY AND BECOMING MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA. WHILE MONDAY REMAINS
UNEVENTFUL, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY. CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE THEN INCREASE AS A LOW PIVOTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
A WARMING TREND, WHICH INITIATES THIS WEEKEND, WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 30S
TO 40S ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY 20S TO LOW 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
THEN WARMS INTO THE 40S TO 50S DURING THE DAY, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGE FROM 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN DURING THE WORK WEEK.
* MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
MOISTURE SEEPS DOWN INTO THE CWA AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY. RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AMID MILD
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A LITTLE SNOW COULD BEGIN TO MIX IN OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK, ANOTHER SYSTEM USHERS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA IS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE RAIN. AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, BRINGING COLDER AIR AND CHANCES FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 505 AM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME MVFR CLOUDS COULD FORM IN THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JLB
NEAR TERM...RPY/JP
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RPY
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