170
FXUS61 KRLX 210802
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
402 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS OF WV. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRIOR CYCLE,
WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT REDUCTION OF LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, AND THE
INCLUSION OF PATCHY FROST IN SOME AREAS. UPDATED 12Z AVIATION
DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE RULING THE ROOST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE EXTENDED DRY WEATHER, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, WHILE CHILLY OVERNIGHTS WITH PATCHY FROST
POTENTIAL AND RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD (THROUGH
TUESDAY), AS IT CONTINUES TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NE/SE
CONUS. NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AMID NEAR WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. A WEAK AND DRY
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA ON THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY/FRIDAY, BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
BEGINS ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS PERHAPS REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S
ON MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS (~ 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO PROG A VERY DRY LAYER AT ~H850, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO AN EXTENT DURING
THE AFTERNOONS WITH DIURNAL MIXING. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
LOWERING AFTERNOON DEW POINTS FROM CENTRAL GUIDANCE EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 20S AND 30S, ALTHOUGH LOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS, AS FINE FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. SURFACE FLOW WILL
HOWEVER REMAIN QUITE LIGHT, WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZES OF 10 MPH
OR GREATER CONFINED TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS.
THE PERSISTENT 'ARID' LOW/MID LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO FACILITATE VERY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING GOING
FORWARD GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT H925 FLOW. WITH
THIS IN MIND, MAINTAINED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES FROM THAT OF CENTRAL GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWLANDS OF WV,
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKES AND RIVERS. PATCHY FROST REMAINS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOWLANDS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE, BUT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AND PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. ADDITIONAL FROST POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHTS CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND UNDER THIS PERSISTENCE PATTERN, WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE 30S GENERALLY EXPECTED MOST NIGHTS. NO NEW FROST
HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR TONIGHT, GIVING
DAY/EVENING SHIFT A CHANCE TO RE-EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR
A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT BASED ON AFTERNOON AND EVENING T/TD
TRENDS.
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND GIVEN A
CONTINUED LARGE AIR / WATER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE, WITH FOG
LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 12Z
THURSDAY) AMID CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN DURING
THIS PERIOD IS WITH RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG THIS MORNING, AND
AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT
CRW/EKN/HTS/PKB. FOG THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT / SCATTER
FROM ~ 12-1400Z, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR THEREAFTER. RIVER VALLEY
FOG WILL THEN BEGIN DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN AT ~6-9Z THURSDAY
MORNING.
CALM FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT NNW TO NNE
SURFACE FLOW DURING THE DAY TODAY. FLOW GOES CALM AFTER SUNSET.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 10/21/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ010-011-
016>020-027>032.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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