027  
FXUS61 KRLX 201731  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
131 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER AND DRIER  
AIR RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...  
 
THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES  
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND MID 40S TO MID  
50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA  
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY LIGHT AND SKIES WILL REMAIN  
CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INITIALLY STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING.  
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL YIELD A  
DECENT RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT BY DAYBREAK AS THE RIDGES RAPIDLY  
WARM. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS,  
MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK, BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND ANY RAINFALL  
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. AS THE HIGHER MOMENTUM  
AIR MIXES DOWN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF  
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH  
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER AROUND OF SHOWERS. COLD AIR  
MOVING IN ALOFT, WITH H500 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -20C,  
WILL STEEPEN MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED LOW-  
LEVEL MOISTURE, MLCAPE VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH A  
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS GENERALLY BELOW  
15KFT. THIS WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE A THUNDER THREAT, THOUGH SOME  
GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT CAN  
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE  
FAR NORTH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...  
 
MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY. WHILE PARCEL TRAJECTORIES DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR  
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT, SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK  
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE  
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH NO  
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL,  
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST, THOUGH SOME  
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS.  
 
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD  
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, CONDITIONS  
WILL BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A  
DECENT FROST FOR MANY AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE  
WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZE IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A  
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO REMAIN DRY. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW  
CONTINUES, DEW POINTS MAY RISE BACK INTO THE 40S, WHICH WOULD REDUCE  
THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT FROST OR FREEZE CONCERNS HEADING  
INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH  
THE REGION, BUT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE  
REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW, WILL  
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH  
SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
COALFIELDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL  
DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING. A  
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WILL CREATE  
CONDITIONS FOR LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR, WITH SPEEDS AT 2000 FT  
INCREASING TO AROUND 40KTS. THIS WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS FROM  
ROUGHLY 07Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. WHILE THIS INCREASING FLOW SHOULD  
LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG, SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN  
THE MOST PROTECTED VALLEY LOCATIONS IF IT CAN DEVELOP BEFORE  
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE.  
 
A LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 11Z AND  
15Z TUESDAY, BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE  
NOT ANTICIPATED.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.  
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...  
PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JP  
NEAR TERM...JP  
SHORT TERM...JP  
LONG TERM...JP  
AVIATION...JP  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WV Page
The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab KY Page
The Nexlab VA Page Main Text Page