979
FXUS61 KRLX 221309
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
909 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES ON THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA. THIS WAS IN COLLABORATION WITH PBZ JOINING IN ON
THE WATCH AND ILN EXPANDING THEIRS NORTH, THE THE SLIGHT RISK
ERO COVERING THE BETTER SOUTHEAST HALF OF OHIO AND SWOOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WV.
451 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
403 AM UPDATE...
A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, FAR WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A WAFFLING FRONT IN / NEAR THE AREA AND MID-LEVEL WAVES
WILL KEEP CLOUDS, AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND, AT TIMES
THUNDERSTORMS, AROUND THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES LEADING TO FLOODING
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY
MORNING.
- 2) THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH SOME DRYING POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE WEEK.
- 3) COOL TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL SATURDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING, IN
COLLABORATION WITH PBZ AND ILN, FILLS IN THE GREATER SOUTHEAST
OHIO AREA WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK ERO EXISTS. THIS FITS THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY, AND DESI RAINFALL EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES.
403 AM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THIS, SOME
DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOW STRATUS
IS INTERSECTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. RAIN WILL
QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THEN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT AMID COOL
TEMPERATURES (MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS) COMPARED
TO LATE MAY NORMALS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN A GULF
FEED, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WHICH WILL BE
MOST PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA,
AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS. PROGGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY RANGE
FROM LESS THAN HALF AN INCH (DOWNSLOPING AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN), UP TO 1-2" ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY,
SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS, HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 8 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF THE WATCH TO INCLUDE OUR
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES OF MORGAN/PERRY COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER
WAVES CONTINUE TO LINGER/IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL
HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOR THE SHORT WORK WEEK TO FOLLOW, UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE FRONT MAY SLIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY TO ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE 50S TO LOW 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS THEN PROGGED TO REMAIN ~ 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY). ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY, SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. IN GENERAL,
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED, BUT BRIEF IFR REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAINFALL. CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
VARIABLE, CURRENTLY RANGING FROM VFR ALL THE WAY TO IFR. IN
GENERAL, MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS TAF
PERIOD, SAVE VFR IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE AREAS (E.G.
CRW/CKB/EKN). FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE TOO STRONG FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
FOG OCCURS WITH STRATUS INTERSECTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ESE TO SE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
BREEZES OF 15-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, PRIMARILY IN THE
TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIGS AND/OR VSBY MAY OSCILLATE FROM THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AND WIND
DIRECTION.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
EDT 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M H L L M
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M H M M L H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M L L L L M L L M L L M
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H L L M L L M M H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR REMAINS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-017-019.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM/GW
AVIATION...GW
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