143
FXUS61 KRLX 220517
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
117 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE.
- 2) ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK, WITH COOLER CONDITIONS
IN ITS WAKE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WARM,
AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT, PROGGED TO BE IN SE OHIO/APPROACHING OHIO RIVER
VICINITY BY EVENING. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING INDICATE AN ATMOSPHERE WITH STRONG
SHEAR, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS
TO DEVELOP, AND THUS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
GREATEST THREAT AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER VICINITY DUE TO TIMING OF FRONT, WITH INSTABILITY WANING AFTER
SUNSET, ALTHOUGH SOME STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY SURVIVE INTO THE
FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTH/EAST. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK, WITH ALL HAZARDS MENTIONED.
STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY REDUCE IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET, WITH THE
FRONT CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA, MAKING ITS WAY
TO OUR EAST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE HOLD FOR MONDAY,
ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO GRADUALLY
NUDGE IN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. STILL PRETTY FAR OUT, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS IT COULD
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS, WITH MULTIPLE WAVES MOVING
ALONG, POSSIBLY ENHANCING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. TOO EARLY TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT ANY WATER ISSUES THIS FAR OUT, BUT REGARDLESS, LOOKS
LIKE A WET END TO THE WEEK/INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND IS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, THEN
MVFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP AS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACCOMPANY A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
CALM TO LIGHT FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TOWARDS DAYBREAK, WITH
15 TO 25 KT GUSTS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 03/22/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...20
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