911
FXUS61 KRLX 121827
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL MINIMAL CHANGES, SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 MPH OVERLAP WITH A MIX OF EXTREMELY DRY DEAD VEGETATION
AND INCREASINGLY DRY LIVE FUELS.
2.) UNSEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK UNDER AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN 15 TO 25 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL, CHALLENGING DAILY
RECORDS.
3.) MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE WEEK. PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
TYPICAL VALLEY RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
4.) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, BUT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WORSEN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
PLACING THE REGION SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR. STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE, WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE LOW 40S TO
MID 50S. COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S F ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
DROPPING INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. FURTHERMORE, THIS
DEEP MIXING IS TAPPING INTO A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET, TRANSPORTING
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE AND RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ARE WHERE
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH, WHERE LITTLE,
IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED RHS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 30S
AGAIN WITH RENEWED GUSTINESS MONDAY. WHILE LOWLAND FOREST
FLOORS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHELTERED, WITHOUT
PRECIPITATION OR SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT RH RECOVERIES, FINE
DEAD FUELS REMAIN VERY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE. THIS IS SOMEWHAT
TEMPERED BY INCREASINGLY MIXED LIVE/DEAD FUELS AS THE GREEN UP
CONTINUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED AND STAGNANT LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL
DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A STRONG H500 RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE EAST
COAST, MAINTAINING PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND APPALACHIA. THIS SETUP WILL YIELD A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SUMMER-LIKE HEAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONSISTENTLY REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHICH IS 15
TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. SEVERAL DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE THREATENED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
UNLIKE TYPICAL QUIESCENT WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN
OF APPALACHIA, THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP NOCTURNAL VALLEY
INVERSIONS TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WITHOUT THIS
DECOUPLING AND SUBSEQUENT COLD AIR DRAINAGE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN QUITE MILD, GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. THIS PERSISTENT FLOW WILL ALSO LARGELY INHIBIT THE
FORMATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG THAT IS OTHERWISE COMMON
UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR FOR THE DURATION
OF THE WORK WEEK. A STEADY, ALBEIT WEAK, MOISTURE FEED FROM THE
GULF WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WITH THE H500 RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST, THE PRIMARY
STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER,
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERIODICALLY RIPPLE ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE SUBTLE IMPULSES, COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, WILL
SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE MLCAPE VALUES
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG BY MID-WEEK.
HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS NOTABLY WEAK, GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20KTS, WHICH WILL FAVOR DISORGANIZED, PULSE-TYPE
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CORES TRACK. GUIDANCE
INTERQUARTILE RANGES SUGGEST BASIN-AVERAGED TOTALS WILL BE
RATHER MEAGER, GENERALLY HALF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE HIGHLY LOCALIZED NATURE OF ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS,
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE LACK OF A WIDESPREAD,
ORGANIZED WETTING RAIN WILL OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE REGION,
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED DAILY AS
FINE FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE TERMINALS, ESTABLISHING A
WARM AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED HIGH BASED CUMULUS
WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 5000 TO 7000 FT AGL WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
25KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z.
TONIGHT, SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KTS AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER PARTIALLY DECOUPLES. HOWEVER, A 30 TO 40KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY BETWEEN 05Z AND 13Z
MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER, BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLIMATE
PERSISTENT, ANOMOUSLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF NEAR OR RECORD HIGHS.
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUN, 4/12 | TUE, 4/14 | WED, 4/15 | THU, 4/16 |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 86 / 92 (1930) | 85 / 88 (2018) | 88 / 89 (1994) | 86 / 89 (2002) |
HTS | 87 / 92 (1930) | 86 / 87 (1941) | 89 / 87 (2024) | 85 / 89 (2024) |
CKB | 81 / 88 (1930) | 81 / 87 (2018) | 85 / 83 (1974) | 84 / 86 (2002) |
PKB | 83 / 88 (1930) | 85 / 85 (1941) | 87 / 84 (2024) | 85 / 88 (2002) |
BKW | 78 / 80 (1916) | 80 / 83 (2018) | 83 / 82 (2012) | 81 / 84 (2002) |
EKN | 79 / 82 (1930) | 80 / 85 (2018) | 85 / 81 (2012) | 82 / 85 (2012) |
------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------
FRI, 4/17 | SAT, 4/18 |
--------------------------------------
CRW | 87 / 89 (1976) | 89 / 90 (2019) |
HTS | 88 / 87 (1976) | 89 / 89 (1955) |
CKB | 83 / 88 (1969) | 86 / 88 (1976) |
PKB | 86 / 89 (1976) | 87 / 91 (1976) |
BKW | 80 / 84 (1976) | 84 / 86 (1976) |
EKN | 81 / 87 (1976) | 85 / 88 (1976) |
--------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
CLIMATE...JP
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