597
FXUS61 KRLX 251755
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN LARGELY ISOLATED
WITH MINIMAL RISK OF ADDITIONAL WATER CONCERNS. STILL EXPECTING
AT LEAST SOME RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
2.) AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT, LEADING TO
LOCALIZED TRAVEL IMPACTS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
3.) A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
H250 JET STREAK WILL LARGELY FADE, ALLOWING LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO FADE AS IT SHIFTS EAST.
ISOLATED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR UNIMPEDED PARCEL
ASCENT. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNDER 10KTS WILL PRECLUDE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, GIVEN WET ANTECEDENT SOILS,
WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCING LOCALIZED SURFACE WIND GUSTS
OF 20-30 MPH COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL UPROOTING
OF TREES; HAVE ALREADY SEEN MANY REPORTS OF TREES DOWN TODAY
WITHOUT MUCH IMPETUS OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED WET SOILS.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES REGARDING A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND DRIFT BACK NORTH AS A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. A BELT OF STRONGER H850 WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 20 TO 30KTS WILL DEVELOP, ADVECTING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE DEFORMATION AXIS DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY. THIS AXIS WILL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BY
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES. THE ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW WILL SUPPORT WEST-TO-EAST TRAINING
CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SKINNY MLCAPE PROFILES,
HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM-CLOUD COLLISION-COALESCENCE PROCESSES, AND
RAINFALL RATES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
WITH SOILS ALREADY PARTIALLY COMPROMISED FROM RECENT RAINFALL,
SMALL BASIN RESPONSES COULD BE RAPID ALTHOUGH LARGE BASIN
AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY MANAGEABLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR TUESDAY, AND/OR MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE INDICATES A POTENTIALLY BETTER-ORGANIZED
AREA OF CONVECTION TRACKING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH TUESDAY, MAINLY AFFECTING THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THIS WILL REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, BUT TRENDS WILL REQUIRE
CLOSE MONITORING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOR TONIGHT, AS THE INITIAL FRONT CLEARS TO THE SOUTH, PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS, CLEARING SKIES, AND
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR QUICK COOLING TO SATURATION. UNCERTAINTY AND IN EXTENT
OF CLEARING PRECLUDES GETTING ANY DENSE FOG PRODUCTS EARLY WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, BUT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MIST/FOG IS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN IN PRECEDING
DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITING HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY DRAG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL FINALLY SHUNT THE TROPICALLY
INFLUENCED MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER STARTING THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL CLIMATE VALUES, GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, SUBSEQUENT
HUDSON BAY TRACK LOWS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE
NORTH, DROPPING VALUES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH. AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, LINGERING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF, AND CEILINGS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WHERE FILTERED INSOLATION ALLOWS MODEST INSTABILITY TO
BUILD. CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW,
AND HAVE ADDRESSED LARGELY WITH VCTS/VCTS AND A COUPLE TEMPOS
FOR SHRA/TSRA.
TONIGHT, PARTIAL CLEARING COUPLED WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
SATURATED SOILS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS. VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS AND CEILINGS BELOW 100 FEET AGL ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 13Z TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITY IMPACTS WITH ANY DIRECT HITS
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR THIS AFTERNOON. FOG
COULD BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THAN ADVERTISED
TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND SUBSEQUENT OVERNIGHT FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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