283
FXUS61 KRLX 060533
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
2) COOLER AND DRIER FOR FRIDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND ANOTHER BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, GENERALLY PROGGED
TO BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY,
EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH MOST
AREAS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO GET AT LEAST HALF AN INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION,
ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED IN RECENT RUNS.
A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES. DRIER, ALTHOUGH POTENTIALLY SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH UPPER TROUGH
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA, DRYING OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, DEPENDING
ON SLACKENING OF WINDS.
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE SLATED FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY, AND A MORE POTENT
SYSTEM POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z, WHEN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RAIN LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND THE
MOUNTAINS, AND SW VIRGINIA.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA,
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, PARTICULARLY AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY, WITH A
GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOCAL LIFR AFTER
12Z.
AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON,
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR LOW END VFR IS EXPECTED, GENERALLY
TOWARDS/AFTER 00Z, AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER REMAINING MVFR/IFR,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE WIDESPREAD IFR IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
BEYOND.
AREAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THAT RECEIVE CLEARING/BRIEF RETURN
TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP THURSDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. PRESENCE, TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
LLWS TONIGHT MAY VARY. IMPROVEMENT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 05/06/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STRATUS MAY LINGER IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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