107
FXUS61 KRLX 151728
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1228 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND MILD TODAY BEFORE RAIN RETURNS ALONG A COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. TURNING MUCH COLDER AND WINDIER SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1132 AM SATURDAY...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN PLACE TODAY, AND THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT SEEMS TO BE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS, MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN
AREAS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. ALTHOUGH
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE PLENTIFUL (60-75 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR),
INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL (200-400 J/KG OF MLCAPE). THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE MAIN CONCERN
TODAY WOULD BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STRONGER WINDS FROM
ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING ANY SHOWERS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT, LEAVING COOLER
CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE,
AND SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 50 MPH
DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE CREATES A TIGHT ISOBARIC GRADIENT
OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS,
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-
30 MPH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1132 AM SATURDAY...
COLD WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S
AND LOWER 30S. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY IN CONTROL. A WEAK 500-MB VORT MAX WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNRISE. HOWEVER, THE AIR THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE LOWER COLUMN SHOULD WARM BY MID TUESDAY MORNING, CHANGING ANY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN FOR MOST OF TUESDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS OVER 3,500 FEET, WHERE SNOW MAY MIX
WITH RAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1132 AM SATURDAY...
WEAK ENERGY LINGERING IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT RAIN
THE ENTIRE TIME DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
WIND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT, AND LLWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY OF THE TERMINALS AS IT PASSES. THE
TIME PERIOD FOR LLWS WOULD LIKELY BE ANYTIME BETWEEN 22Z THIS
EVENING AND 08Z SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, A LINE OF GUSTY
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH,
WHICH COULD BRING VISBY DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME.
CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF THIS LINE OF SHOWERS IS
MEDIUM, AS THIS LINE OF SHOWERS COULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS
IT TRACKS THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA AFTER SUNSET. TEMPO GROUPS WERE
INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH VISBY RESTRICTIONS TO 3SM. THIS COULD END UP
BEING REDUCED TO 1SM OR LESS IN LATER AMENDMENTS, DEPENDING ON
HOW THIS LINE OF SHOWERS HOLDS TOGETHER.
MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM BEING SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER 03Z SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EST 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H H H M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN ON SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26
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