654
FXUS61 KRLX 081802
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
202 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDITIONAL FROST AND FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST RETURN TONIGHT,
THREATENING SENSITIVE VEGETATION IN PROTECTED VALLEYS.
2.) INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES DUE DRY FUELS AND LOW RH.
3.) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING NEAR
0.15 INCHES. AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE
EASTWARD, INITIATING A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. DESPITE
THE FLOW SHIFT, THE DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE
DEEPEST, MOST PROTECTED HOLLOWS TO PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S, SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND LOCALIZED
HARD FREEZES. OUTSIDE OF THE FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS, SOME
OF THE BEST PROTECTED POCKETS SUBJECT TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE COULD
ALSO FREEZE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN A VERY
DRY AIRMASS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IS LOW, HAVE UNDERCUT
CENTRAL GUIDANCE AS MUCH AS IS REASONABLE WHILE MAINTAINING
CONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, BUT MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH.
BOTTOM LINE: IF YOU HAVE SENSITIVE VEGETATION, PROTECT IT
TONIGHT.
A COMPLICATING MESOSCALE FACTOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CROSS-BARRIER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE EASTERN
TERRAIN GENERATING A LOCALIZED SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND FOR
A FEW HOURS. THIS FLOW WILL MAINTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT LOWLANDS INITIALLY, LIMITING COOLING IN THESE SPECIFIC
DOWNSLOPE ZONES COMPARED TO THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THESE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CATCH UP AS THE DOWNSLOPE WEAKENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PERSISTENTLY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL TAP INTO VERY DRY AIR ALOFT, ALLOWING
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS TO CRASH AND YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. TEN-HOUR FUEL
MOISTURES REMAIN VERY DRY, INDICATING THAT THE DEAD LEAF LITTER
AND OTHER FINE DEAL FUELS ON THE LARGELY UNSHELTERED FOREST
FLOOR REMAINS HIGHLY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE.
WHILE RAPID GREEN-UP ACROSS THE LOWLANDS IS INTRODUCING FINE
LIVE FUELS THAT WILL SOMEWHAT TEMPER THE OVERALL RISK FOR RAPID
FIRE SPREAD, ANY AFOREMENTIONED DOWNSLOPE IN THE VICINITY OF A
FIRE THIS EVENING OR THURSDAY EVENING COULD PRESENT SOME CONTROL
ISSUES. WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
THERE FOR TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SUBSIDENCE AND RISING H500 HEIGHTS WILL ESTABLISH A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM THE UPPER 60S F TODAY TO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S F BY THE WEEKEND, PUSHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR EARLY APRIL.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SEVERE LACK OF ANTECEDENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SURFACE. ANY
RAIN THAT DOES MANAGE TO OVERCOME THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL
BE EXCEPTIONALLY LIGHT, AMOUNTING TO A PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO AT
BEST, PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST OHIO.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING RAPIDLY RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY, ENSURING A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO
PASSING HIGH CIRRUS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EXCEPT IN
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE AT BKW. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE
THIS EVENING UNTIL CROSS BARRIER THERMAL GRADIENTS RELAX.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
WVZ011-015>020-026>031-033-034-515-517-519.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
WVZ032-039-040-521-524-525.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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