057
FXUS61 KRLX 281056
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
556 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM BUT TURNING WINDY TODAY AND TONIGHT. ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS
STRONG, GUSTY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY STRONG, GUSTY
WINDS, SNOW SHOWERS AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY TODAY.
* POTENT ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHIPS THOUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.
STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN A LINE OF
SHOWERS CROSSING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AS WELL AS RIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF.
VALLEY FOG THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR, CALM CONDITIONS IN
NORTHERN WV WILL DISSIPATE JUST AS QUICKLY, AS CLOUDS AND
SURFACE FLOW INCREASE.
A MID/UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY, AND THEN SCOOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. IN
RESPONSE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IF MOVES NORTHEAST
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SYSTEM PICKS UP THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING BACK AND
FORTH ACROSS THE AREA ALL OF LAST WEEK, AS A WARM FRONT. THIS
WARM FRONT BRING LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND COULD ALSO SPAWN SHOWERS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS, BEFORE MOVING ON THROUGH. AFTER THAT, IT
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM, INCREASINGLY WINDY AND MAINLY DRY
THIS AFTERNOON, IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSIFYING SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
TODAY, WITH 71 FORECAST FOR HUNTINGTON. THIS WOULD BE JUST 2
DEGREES F SHORT OF THE RECORD THERE SET IN 1984. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HIGHS VS RECORD
HIGHS IN THE AREA TODAY.
AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO FROM 30
TO 35 MPH TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST RIDGES. A LINE OF
STRONG SHOWERS CROSSES JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, AS EVINCED BY MOST AMY MODEL WITH A RESOLUTION OF 20 KM
OR LESS. THIS STRONG LINE COULD MIX DOWN 40 TO 45 MPH WIND
GUSTS JUST BASED ON THE FORECAST SPEED OF THE LINE ALONG, WITH
LOCALLY EVEN STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SPC HAD BACKED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON DAY
2 OUTLOOK UPDATE, AND HAS MAINTAINED THIS THINKING IN THEIR NEW
DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO MIX DOWN WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT ITSELF WITH THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL MIXING, WITH
GENERAL GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE CONTINUING IN THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE POST-
FRONTAL DRY SLOT BRIEFLY ENDS THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN THERE.
AFTER THE UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT, TEMPERATURES FALL FROM WEST
TO EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
WITH THE 32-DEGREE LINE REACHING THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR DAWN MONDAY. THIS COULD IMPACT THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE THERE WITH RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE FREEZING ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. THE WARM WEATHER TODAY WILL STAVE OFF THIS
PROCESS SOMEWHAT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MOUNTAINS, WHERE WINDS COULD GUST IN
EXCESS OF 58 MPH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
* RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH
ONLY A DUSTING FOR THE LOWLANDS.
* MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT EAST OF
THE AREA FIRST THING MONDAY MORNING CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES AND
MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AREA ON MONDAY, AS
THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES WHILE MOVING INTO THE THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AREA AS
WELL. THE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED BY MONDAY EVENING, ABOUT WHEN
PEAK INTENSITY IS REACHED, AND THEN DRIFTS THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH TUESDAY.
AFTER THE POST-FRONTAL DRY SLOT BRINGS A BRIEF END TO THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING, AS RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS BUT
POSSIBLY AS SNOW OR AT LEAST A MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS, THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ITSELF BRINGS ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. YET ANOTHER, MORE NEGATIVELY-TILED SHORT WAVE
AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MUCH LARGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION
MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER BURST OF, BY THIS TIME, VERY FLUFFY
SNOW AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT, OTHERWISE, SNOW WILL BE MAINLY
OF THE UPSLOPE VARIETY, IN AND JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS,
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND THEN 30S, MONDAY, FALLING
BELOW FREEZING IN THE FAR WEST MONDAY MORNING, AND THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A QUICK, THIN COATING COULD OCCUR IN THE LOWLANDS MONDAY AND A
FLUFFY COATING MONDAY NIGHT, AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MOST
FAVORED HIGHER WINDWARD SLOPES COULD REACH 4 INCHES OR BETTER.
OTHERWISE, FLURRIES ARE LIKELY TO LINGER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
FAVORED ARCTIC AIR INTO TUESDAY, EVEN AS MEASURABLE SNOW
DIMINISHES.
THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE WITH THE QUICK
FREEZE FOLLOWING THE FRONT, POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE, AND THEN THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA MONDAY, WITH ANY MOISTURE NOT FREEZING ON SURFACES
DURING THE DAY DOING SO WITH THE ONSET OF DARKNESS, AND THE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY IMPACTED. WPC PAINTS THE WSSI, WINTER STORM SEVERITY
INDEX, AS JUST GENERAL WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR NOW.
DRIVERS WOULD BE URGE TO JUST USE CAUTION.
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING UP AND DOWN THE PLAINS
MONDAY BUILDING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY, THE FORECAST
AREA WILL BE IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT THAT THEN STARTS TO SLACKEN ON TUESDAY. THIS
STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
GRADUALLY SLACKENING OFF ON TUESDAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS COULD RANGE
FROM 30 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
TO 55 TO 60 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY, WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS, NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR WIND
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
THESE STRONG WINDS AND FLUFFY SNOW ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, EXACERBATING WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS A
BIT.
WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE 10 TO 15 DEGREE C RANGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10S TO AROUND 20 F MONDAY NIGHT, AND THEN TOP
OUT IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30, TEENS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN, ON TUESDAY. WIND CHILLS DROP IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THEN REMAIN THERE THROUGH TUESDAY, EVEN DIPPING
INTO THE TENS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* CLIPPER POSSIBILITY WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW REGION WIDE.
* REMAINING COLD THROUGH THE WEEK.
AFTER A DRY, COLD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING IN A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST, A SECOND ARCTIC
OUTBREAK ARRIVES TO RING IN 2026. THIS ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS
THROUGH NEW YEARS MORNING, WITH SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES POSSIBLE
IF NOT LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND THEN A
FLAT-WAVE-TYPE ANAFRONT SNOW IN ITS WAKE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY, COLD WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND OFF THE GFS. HOWEVER, THE DRY
WEATHER IS INTERRUPTED NEXT WEEKEND BY A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE ECMWF, AND A MORE FULLY-PHASED
SYSTEM WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA IN THE CANADIAN.
H85 TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE 10 TO 15 DEGREE C
RANGE WITH THIS SECOND ARCTIC BLAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A
LITTLE LOWER IN THE ECMWF BUT A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE CANADIAN.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S LOWLANDS AND 20S MOUNTAINS,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 20S LOWLANDS AND TEENS MOUNTAINS, THESE H85
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT CHALLENGING ANY RECORD LOWS, AND A
BIT MODEST FOR AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK APPROACHING MID WINTER. WITH
GUSTY WINDS, WIND CHILLS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, MOSTLY ABOVE ZERO, THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 555 AM SUNDAY...
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM NORTHERN
SITES CKB AND EKN, WHICH HAD ALREADY BROKEN UP AT CKB, AND WAS
BREAKING UP AT EKN.
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE AROUND AT TIMES THIS MORNING, WITH
SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THAT,
IT WILL TURN INCREASINGLY WINDY AMID VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 20
TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT.
A LINE OF STRONG, GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM 07Z TO 10Z MONDAY, ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 40 KTS. THE HRRR MODEL IS AN HOUR OR
TWO FASTER.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MODERATE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN STRONG
SOUTHWEST, 50 TO 55 KTS AT AROUND 5 KFT, BY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MODERATE TO STRONG WEST BY
DAWN MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT EKN COULD
VARY BY AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS AND MAGNITUDE
COULD VARY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LINE OF STRONG, GUSTY RAIN
SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AND BE MORE OR LESS
INTENSE THAN CODED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 12/28/25
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M L L L L H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H M M M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H M M H M
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TO BRIEF SNOW ON MONDAY. AND IN UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY, DECEMBER 28:
LOCATION FORECAST RECORD
======== ======== ======
KCRW: 68 73/1984
KHTS: 71 73/1984
KCKB: 63 67/2005
KPKB: 66 73/1982
KBKW: 61 70/1984
KEKN: 62 67/1984
MUCH COLDER THE REST OF THE WEEK, BUT NO RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
CLIMATE...TRM
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