098
FXUS61 KRLX 271944
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
344 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
IN COORDINATION WITH THE KY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER CENTER AND WFO
JKL, WE HAVE INITIATED THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE 2026
CALENDAR YEAR FOR OUR NORTHEAST KY COUNTIES AND, BY
EXTRAPOLATION AND EMPLOYEE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING WEBCAMS, HAVE
ALSO INITIATED THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE 2026 CALENDAR
YEAR FOR OUR SOUTHERN WV AND SW VA COUNTIES. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO ISSUED FREEZE
WATCHES FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY FOR
THESE SAME AREAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STOUT WARM-UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER
THE COLD START SUNDAY MORNING, BUT ARE NOW HONING IN BETTER ON
LATE WEEK SYSTEMS INTERFERING WITH THE WARM WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ANAFRONT RAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING EXITS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND
THEN THE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- 2) THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WAS PROVING TO MORE MORE
STOUT THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A HARD FREEZE IS ON TAP AREA-WIDE ON COLD
ADVECTION, AS LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS, AND CLEARING
IS PARTIAL/LATE. THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MAY EVENTUALLY CLEAR
OUT ENTIRELY, AND WINDS THERE MAY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM BY DAWN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REPRESENTING THE
CENTER OF THE COLD AIR MASS APPROACHES FORM THE WEST. AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY EVENING, AND THEN EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN LIKELY, THIS
TIME MAINLY IN LOW SPOTS WITH FROST ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH THE
AIR MASS ALSO VERY DRY, AFTERNOON RH PERCENTAGES WILL BE VERY
LOW, BUT AMID RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND FREEZE WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE SPRING
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS BEEN INITIATED.
- 3) UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT ALONG
WITH SYSTEM MID TO LATE WEEK INTRODUCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE SYSTEMS ULTIMATELY INTERFERE WITH
THE WARM WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BANDS OF LIGHT ANAFRONT RAIN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSED THE AREA THIS MORNING STARTING EARLY, WERE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BE NUDGED
OUT OF THE AREA BY A FLAT, BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
TAKES OVER FROM THE ORIGINAL CENTER FADING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THE RAIN MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS, AS LOW CLOUDS PERSISTS BEHIND THE SHALLOW POST-
FRONTAL INVERSION.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT BEFORE THE AIR
MASS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, EVEN OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
AN INCH TO AN INCH A HALF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES, AND POINTS NORTH, CAUSED
MINOR ISOLATED FLOODING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER THERE, BUT
ALSO CREEK AND RIVER RISES FLOWING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST. CREEKS SWILL RECEDE TONIGHT WHILE RIVERS PEAK
OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE POST-FRONTAL INVERSION DEEPENS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY,
ALLOWING CLOUD BASES TO LIFT AND CLOUDS TO BREAK UP OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY A MINIMAL DELAY IN MORNING
BREAK UP DURING POST-SUNRISE HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WAS PROVING TO MORE MORE STOUT
THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OHIO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S.
WITH THE HIGH REPRESENTING THE CENTER OF THE COLD AIR MASS NOT
BUILDING INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS, AND CLEARING WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO
OCCUR, ESPECIALLY INN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY MAY EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT ENTIRELY, AND WINDS THERE MAY GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM BY DAWN AS THE HIGH APPROACHES FORM
THE WEST.
AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT WILL BE
DRIVEN LARGELY ON COLD ADVECTION AS OPPOSED TO RADIATIVE
CONDITIONS, AND GUIDANCE AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS STRONGLY
SUGGEST A FREEZE IF NOT A HARD FREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH THE GROWING SEASON INITIATED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED THERE FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY, DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE, AS THE MIXED LAYER DEEPENS AND VERY DRY AIR TAKES
HOLD. WENT CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE CENTRAL GUIDANCE
PROBABILISTIC ENVELOP FOR AFTERNOON DEW POINTS BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RH PERCENTAGES WELL DOWN IN THE
20S THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WITH QUICKLY DRYING FUELS, FIRE
CONCERNS WILL ONLY BE MITIGATED BY RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS,
RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
HIGH ON SATURDAY, AND THEN RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE THEN EXITING HIGH ON SUNDAY.
WITH THE HIGH CROSSING THE AREA OUTSIDE THE IDEAL TIME FOR
NOCTURNAL RADIATIVE COOLING, THE RETURN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON ITS BACK SIDE WILL LIMIT IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING TO THE
LOW SPOTS, WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING, COMPARED WITH SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
HAS BEEN INITIATED, AND FREEZE WARNINGS FOR TONIGHT ARE IN
EFFECT.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY EVENING, AND THEN
EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN
LIKELY, THIS TIME MAINLY IN LOW SPOTS WITH FROST ALSO POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE NEW WEEK BEGINS WITH A STOUT WARMING TREND THAT WILL SEND
LOWLAND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO 60S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY, THEN
UP TO AROUND 70 ON MONDAY AND AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY.
ROUNDS OF WARM ADVECTION INTRODUCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS
EARLY AS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND
AFTERNOON HEATING SUPPORTS LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY.
MID/UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AMID EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
BACKS NORTHWEST FLOW TO SOUTHWEST. MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THEN LIFT THROUGH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK, CURRENTLY
TIMES OUT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THURSDAY
NIGHT/OVERNIGHT, AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH
THESE, WITH THE NIGHT TIMING ALSO GIVING ENHANCING THE CHANCE
FOR LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE THIRD SYSTEM, NEXT WEEKEND, APPEARS TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED,
BUT, AT THAT PROJECTION, ALSO CARRIES INCREASING MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING.
THE MID/LATE-WEEK SYSTEMS INTERFERE WITH THE WARM WEATHER,
KNOCKING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE 60S AND 70S WHILE
OVERNIGHT KNOCKING LOWS, WHICH RISE TO THE 50S AND 60S BY
MIDWEEK, BACK DOWN TO THE 40S AND 50S LATE WEEK, STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS AND, MVFR TO AT TIMES IFR LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE, IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THIS MORNING, WILL
EASE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, AS COLDER, DRIER AIR DEEPENS
THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION, ENDING THE PRECIPITATION AND
RAISING AND EVENTUALLY BREAKING UP THE CEILINGS. THIS TREND
WILL TAKE PLACE IN TANDEM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND LOWLANDS TO
MOUNTAINS.
THIS YIELDS A 10+ HOUR IMPROVEMENT WINDOW, WITH VFR AS EARLY AS
02Z TONIGHT AT PKB, AND AS LATE AS 13Z SATURDAY MORNING AT BKW.
VFR PREVAILS BEYOND THESE TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH DRY LOW
LEVEL FLOW PREVENTING EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG EVEN IN THE WAKE
OF THE RAIN.
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW, A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MODERATE NORTHWEST TONIGHT, AND THEN
LIGHT NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TERMINALS MAY BOUNCE EITHER SIDE OF 1000 FT
AND 3SM INTO TONIGHT, AND IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR
THROUGH TONIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H L L H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
WVZ005-013-024>026-033-034.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ005-013-024>026-033-034.
OH...NONE.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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