761
FXUS61 KRLX 300434
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1234 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS HAS SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH LIKELY POPS COMING IN A BIT SOONER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS TO BE UP IN
THE AIR WITH MODELS SHOWING LOW CONFIDENCE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
A TIMELY MANNER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING INTO
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) DRY WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY.
2.) WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CONSIDERABLY, WITH EVEN MORE WARMING BY
THURSDAY. AFTERNOON READINGS BY THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S FOR
ALL BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE AREA WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT HOWEVER, THAT SOME RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, MORE LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ONCE AGAIN, THIS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH, LEAVING DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING, A CUMULUS DECK WILL FORM
OVER/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
THE FOG DISSIPATES THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF FOG FORMING
COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 09/30/26
UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
EDT 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M L L L M M M L H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L L L H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M L M M M M M M L H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L M M H H L H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L L L M M L L H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN FOG MAY RETURN TO KEKN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PROVIDE BRIEF IFR FRIDAY. IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWESTERN VA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page