878  
FXUS61 KRLX 082254  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
654 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL  
LEAD TO CHILLY NIGHTS WITH FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
POST-FRONTAL STRATUS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE ARE GRADUALLY ERODING FROM  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE  
AREA. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
AFTERNOON, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO AROUND 15 TO  
20 MPH.  
 
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH, CAUSING THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. THIS WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS  
UNDER CLEARING SKIES. WHILE A MODEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST FOR AT  
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, LIMITING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF  
RADIATIONAL COOLING, WELL-PROTECTED VALLEYS SHOULD STILL DECOUPLE  
AND COOL EFFICIENTLY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S  
TO MID 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN  
MOUNTAINS, LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED, LEADING TO  
AREAS OF FROST WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZE IN THE TYPICAL  
MOUNTAIN COLD SPOTS. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE  
AREAS AND WILL PLAN TO LEAVE HIGHLIGHTS AS IS FOR NOW.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND WILL  
RIDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS, REINFORCING THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS  
OVER THE REGION. THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH  
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 50S  
TO MID 60S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING PRESENTS THE MOST  
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. CLEAR  
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING  
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT  
LEAST PATCHES OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND A  
FREEZE IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN AREAS SUBJECT TO  
COLD AIR DRAINAGE ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S,  
WITH NOTORIOUSLY COLD SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DROPPING  
INTO THE UPPER 20S. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN  
MOUNTAINS AND FROST ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT  
LEAST SOME OF THE NORTHERN LOWLAND COUNTIES, PERHAPS EXTENDING  
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, ALTHOUGH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW  
MAY LIMIT FROST FORMATION IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN.  
 
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING A  
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS INITIATES A WARMING TREND  
UNDER CONTINUED SUNNY SKIES, WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER  
60S TO LOW 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL, BUT NOT AS COLD, WITH  
ISOLATED FROST POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH A FURTHER  
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
AS OF 120 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
THE QUIET AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG-TERM PERIOD  
FEATURES SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DUE TO A COMPLEX INTERACTION  
BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A  
NORTHERN STREAM LOW DIVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE BULK OF  
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS OUT OF  
OUR FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS, IF THE NORTHERN  
STREAM LOW POSITION ENDS ON THE THE SOUTHERN ENVELOPE OF MODEL  
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S  
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 654 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THIS EVENING AS MVFR CIGS RISE AND SCATTER  
AS A COLD FRONT DEPARTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY,  
GOING CALM ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS LATER ON.  
 
SOME VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED FOR EKN. OTHER SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH MAYBE A  
FEW SEEING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS ~11-12Z. ANY FOG THAT  
FORMS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY ~13-14Z THURSDAY, GIVING WAY TO  
VFR CONDITIONS.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG FORMATION COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD  
THAN IS FORECAST IF WINDS GO CALM AT MORE SITES.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08  
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...  
AT LEAST PATCHY IFR MORNING VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.  
 
 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ039-040-  
518>526.  
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING  
FOR WVZ523>526.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...JP  
NEAR TERM...JP  
SHORT TERM...JP  
LONG TERM...JP  
AVIATION...LTC  
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