491
FXUS61 KRLX 180958
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
558 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
301 AM UPDATE...
THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATE WITH THE POWERFUL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, DOWN TO JUST UNDER 950 MB JUST OFF THE
NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR COAST, CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER
DELIVERING A ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SEVERE WEATHER AND THEN
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA AND LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES, ENDED LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM LEAVES BEHIND A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY TODAY.
A MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS IN FOR THE END OF
THIS WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND, AND THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THE POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, DOWN TO JUST UNDER 950 MB
JUST OFF THE NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR COAST, CANADA EARLY THIS
MORNING AFTER DELIVERING A ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SEVERE WEATHER
AND THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA AND LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES, LEAVES BEHIND A
VERY COLD START TO THE DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
FREEZING COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HARM TO ANY EARLY SEASON
VEGETATION GIVEN THE RECENT WARMTH.
- 2) A MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN THEN SETS IN FOR THE
BALANCE OF END OF THIS WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND, AND THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE POWERFUL
STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT A ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. VERY COLD AIR THAT ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT ON MONDAY, HAS PUT THE
AREA IN A HARD FREEZE SINCE MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A VERY COLD
MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA, AND SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ALL DESPITE A
MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK, THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXITS, ALLOWING A
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO TAKE US OUT OF THE HARD FREEZE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THIS
EXTENDED HARD FREEZE HAS LIKELY LED TO HARM TO ANY EARLY SEASON
VEGETATION GIVEN THE RECENT WARMTH.
ONCE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON, THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE BELOW FREEZING AGAIN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS A WARMING TREND ENSUES.
WHILE THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WRAP AROUND
UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAVE ENDED, THERE
COULD STILL BE SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SURFACE THIS MORNING DUE
TO RECENT SNOW, OR REFREEZE OF ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE LAST NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THESE INSTANCES SHOULD BE ISOLATED.
WARM ADVECTION LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BENEATH
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW CAN PRODUCE SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES OUT OF ABOUT A 6 KFT CLOUD DECK, BUT MODELS FROM THE
GLOBALS TO MOST CAMS DISSIPATE PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE FEATURE
REACHES OUR AREA TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SETTLES DOWN FURTHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND, WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AMID ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WARM
ADVECTION LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BENEATH WEAK
IMPULSES WITHIN NORTHWEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THESE ARE TIMED
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT, WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
WITH THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE AREA, COLDEST TO THE NORTHEAST, DRIFTING ONLY SLOWLY
EAST/NORTHEAST, IT MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THURSDAY EVENING. ON THE OTHER HAND,
CENTRAL GUIDANCE AND SPC DEPICT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH MAINLY ELEVATED NARROW CAPE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH 70 AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE THEY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW 70S ON SATURDAY, THEN UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON
SUNDAY.
THERE IS GOOD GLOBAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT CROSSING
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT COULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS, AS IT CROSSES, AND IS LIKELY TO TAKE
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN WARM ADVECTION LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THIS
PERIOD. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A LOWERING CLOUD DECK,
BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE 3 KFT VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD
THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THEY MAY GET DOWN TO CLOSE TO IT IN
THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. A SPRINKLE OR MORNING SNOW FLURRY MAY
OCCUR, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MEASURABLE NOR RESTRICT
VISIBILITY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES A BIT TONIGHT, BUT LIKELY NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, AND HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER, DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WILL BE A COMPONENT, AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FLOW
VEERS WITH HEIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, INCLUDING DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR, MAY REACH LLWS CODING CRITERIA TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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