392
FXUS61 KRLX 170930
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
530 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MADE AT
THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- 2) FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEW WORK
WEEK.
- 3) COOLER AND DRIER TO START NEXT WEEK WITH FROST AND FREEZE
POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THIS SATURDAY
WHILE EXITING BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A
NICE WETTING RAIN TO THE AREA SUPPRESSING FIRE DANGER FOR NOW
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC
HAS US UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENTER THE AREA WITH NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH DUE
TO CLOUD COVERAGE AND TIMING OF A LATER ENTRY TO THE AREA ALONG
WITH POST FRONTAL RAIN ACTIVITY. WHAT IT DOES HAVE IS MODEST TO
STRONG WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AS
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THINGS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH THIS ONE. ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD
WILL BE TORNADOES SINCE THERE WILL BE A LOT OF HELICITY TO WORK
WITH WHICH WILL HELP POTENTIAL SPIN UPS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
WITH THE EXIT OF THIS FEATURE, COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ADVECT IN PROMOTING LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY
WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES MAY EVEN TURN INTO SNOW
FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND RIDGES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL POTENTIALLY BE A CONCERN FOR THE NEW
WORK WEEK ON A DAILY BASIS AS RH VALUES PLUMMET EVERY AFTERNOON
WITH ELEVATED WIND ON A DAILY BASIS AS WELL. A FEW DISTURBANCES
WILL RIDE BY THE AREA, HOPEFULLY PROVIDING SOME RELIEF TO
SUPPRESS FIRE DANGER IN CERTAIN AREAS, HOWEVER THESE
DISTURBANCES LOOK VERY MINOR AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
NOT RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL. THEREFORE, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN DAILY FROM TUESDAY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN, THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO DAMPER THE FIRE
THREAT CONCERNS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED ON A
DAILY BASIS TO SEE IF ANY HEADLINES OR SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FOR MONDAY MORNING, FROST AND FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. THERE IS EVEN A LITTLE CHANCE
FOR SNOW TO GET INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS LINGERING PRECIPITATION
CHANGES FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE PEAKS
AND RIDGES OF THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING AS COLD
AIR SETTLES IN AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE FREEZING WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA, EXCLUDING THE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO WHO MAY
BE FREEZING OR BELOW, WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING ALLOWING FOR
FROST TO DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE WIND OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS FROST DEVELOPMENT.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
AND FREEZE HEADLINES. THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING ONCE AGAIN AND THE REST OF THE AREA EXCLUDING PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS WILL BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING TO ALLOW
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY UNDER WEAK
SURFACE FLOW.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE AREA WILL WARM BACK UP TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE AND THE START OF A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE GOING
INTO FRIDAY DETERRING THE FROST OR FREEZE POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AFTER THE MORNING ANY FOG LIFTS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
RETURN. TODAY EXPECT A PLEASANT AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH JUST
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY GUSTING INTO THE TEENS
OCCASIONALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 04/17/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L M M H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L L M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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