874
FXUS61 KRLX 212335
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
635 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HOISTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS FOR LIGHT SNOW AND ICE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPDATES
TO THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THAT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A CLIPPER CROSSES TONIGHT BRINGING LOWLAND RAIN AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
2.) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT HEAVY, PLOWABLE, AND IMPACTFUL
SNOW IS LIKELY.
3.) BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS RETURN THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A DECENT BIT TODAY IN COMPARISON TO
PREVIOUS DAYS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS FRONT. COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER CROSSES, WHICH WILL PROMPT
A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT SAID, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FROM 4PM
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 10AM THURSDAY. ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRETIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPACTS TO THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS A RESULT.
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS MAY
GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
A BRIEF STINT OF DRIER AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOSTLY DRY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OUR WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A BROAD QUANTITY OF OUR
COUNTIES FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHILE
HISTORIC OR CATASTROPHIC SNOWFALL IS NOT QUITE ON THE TABLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL STILL BE VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW
WITH MAJOR IMPACTS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL.
MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY THE
AMOUNTS WILL BE, BUT THERE IS A STARK SHIFT NORTH AND WEST WITH
THE HEAVIEST BANDING OF SNOWFALL. THAT SHIFT SKEWS MOST OF IT
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF IT. THERE IS THE
INCREASED POSSIBILITY WITH THIS SOLUTION THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME MIXING (SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN) AND A DRY SLOT OCCURRENCE
SUNDAY.
THE LATEST GFS IS MORE OF A WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH 1 TO 2
FEET SHOWING UP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WOULD BE A SOLUTION WHERE
WE SEE MOSTLY ALL SNOW AND LESS MIXING DURING THE DURATION OF
THE EVENT.
THE LATEST NAM IS INCLINED TO GIVE US LESS SNOW (4 TO 8 INCHES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS) WITH MUCH MORE MIXING AS OVERRUNNING OCCURS
WITH THE LOW BEING CLOSER TO THE AREA. THIS COULD BE EQUALLY AS
CHAOTIC AS ICE ACCRETIONS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE JUST AS MANY IF
NOT MORE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND INFRASTRUCTURE COMPARED WITH
HEAVY SNOW.
THE LATEST EURO, CANADIAN, AND ICON MODELS ARE MORE TOLERABLE.
THEY ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AS FAR AS AMOUNTS THAT WERE
MENTIONED WITH THE OTHER MODELS ABOVE. THIS WOULD BE A 6 TO 12
INCH RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WITH 8 TO 15 INCHES
BEING COMMON IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE TOO. THESE MODELS HIGHLIGHT A WARM-AIR WEDGE THAT WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA, METRO VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS IN OUR AREA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE MIXING AND
LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW AMOUNTS. HEAVIER BANDS WOULD
SUBSEQUENTLY FORM ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, NORTHERN
LOWLANDS OF WV, AND THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS IN WV. THESE
MODELS ALSO SHOW MORE AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
LATEST BLEND OF MODELS IS IN LINE WITH THE ABOVE THREE MODELS.
MOST OF THE AREA IS IN THE 7 TO 10 INCH RANGE, WHERE CURRENT
CONFIDENCE IS UPWARDS OF 80 TO 90 PERCENT OF REACHING THESE
AMOUNTS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. 10 TO 15 INCHES MAY
ALSO BE ACHIEVED IN OUR AREA, MORE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MORE IN THE REALM OF
50 TO 60 PERCENT FOR THESE AMOUNTS. UPSLOPE SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THE MAIN SNOWFALL
EVENT IS TAPERING OFF.
REGARDLESS OF THE METRICS, IT IS BEST TO PREPARE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT AND MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA
FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT THIS
WEEKEND AND POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LARGE-SCALE
STORM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY KNOCKING THE TEMPERATURES BACK AHEAD
OF THIS STORM. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY,
BUT SOME WARMING MAY OCCUR SUNDAY WITH THE OVERRUNNING POTENTIAL.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY SEE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN THE MIXING THREAT.
COLD AIR IS REINFORCED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THOUGH AS STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW MOVES BACK IN WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH TO OUR
NORTHWEST INCHING CLOSER. LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS. MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WIND
CHILLS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE AND NEGATIVE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS BITTER COLD TREND LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR OUR LAST
WEEK OF JANUARY. HIGHS IN THE 20S TO THE LOWER 30S WITH TEENS IN
THE MOUNTAINS ARE ON THE BOARD GOING INTO FEBRUARY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOK EVEN MORE FRIGID WITH TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEING
COMMONPLACE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AFFECTING SITES SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
MOST SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAIN, ALTHOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING AT SITE KEKN, ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, WITH
LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING AT SITE KEKN. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM
WEST TO EAST/NORTH TO SOUTH TO VFR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY
AFTER 08-10Z THURSDAY, WITH MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NOT
IMPROVING TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 14Z ON THURSDAY.
IN ADDITION, GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD, WITH SUSTAINED LOWER TO MID TEENS, AND GUSTS IN THE 20
KT RANGE, EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO LOWER 40KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, LLWS IS EXPECTED FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT, GENERALLY
THROUGH 08-10Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR ON THURSDAY MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H L H M H H M M H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M M H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ523-
526.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...SL
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