029
FXUS61 KRLX 282156
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
456 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY ON SATURDAY AMID TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE. A SYSTEM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD START AS A WINTRY MIX. MORE WINTRY
WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 455 PM FRIDAY...
SNOW HAS DIMINISHED AND WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE THREAT OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER, THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS WHERE H85 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
PRESENT ON MODEL STREAMLINES. UNTIL WINDS GROW MORE WESTERLY IN
NATURE, PROGGED FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, THE LAKE
ENHANCED MOISTURE FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO OUR MOUNTAIN ZONES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL 5 PM THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
SHOWERS AND FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THAT COMES ABOUT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE
FEATURE WILL CUT OFF THE FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES, ALLOWING FOR
A QUICK BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE BEFORE MORE RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TRIUMPH FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. GRADIENT
WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS, WITH
BREEZY WIND GUSTS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEAKENING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AND
LOW 20S UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINS. SOME DAYTIME
RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH, USHERING IN WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE.
WHILE THE HIGHER RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LOWLAND AND FOOTHILL ZONES WILL
STRETCH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
A DISTURBANCE ORIGINATING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
EJECT OFF THE ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL AIM
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS SLATED TO ARRIVE AS TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO DECLINE FOR THE DAY, SETTING FORTH A SLEW OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AMID SUB-FREEZING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS
A WARM NOSE INVADES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND TRANSITIONS SHOWERS
OVER TO RAIN, WHILE OUR FAR NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN ZONES ARE
SERVED A VARIETY OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN
ALONG THE RIDGES THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THE SYSTEM
SLIDES EASTWARD BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH
ENOUGH WARM AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA TO SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN
AREAWIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS,
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE IN OUR FORECAST AREA
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, BUT WHAT COULD YIELD IMPACT CONCERNS WILL
COME FROM THE ICE THAT WILL BE PROMPTED BY FREEZING RAIN ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS ALSO A HIGHLIGHTED AREA
OF NOTE BY WPC FOR SUNDAY MORNING IN REGARDS TO ICE
ACCUMULATIONS, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLE HEADLINE ISSUANCES.
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WILL BE UNVEILED ON MONDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, BUT WILL BE QUICKLY MASKED ONCE MORE BY
MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOUND BELOW IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE FORMING OVER THE GULF COAST AT THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGS RENEWED CHANCES OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION HERE IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS STARTING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. GAINING SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
OHIO VALLEY, THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF STIRRING UP IMPACTS TO
NOT JUST THE MOUNTAINS, BUT ALSO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IF THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS STORM
HOLDS. SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM COMING IN THIS WEEKEND, THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD SUPPORT A HODGEPODGE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
AND WILL CERTAINLY BEAR MONITORING.
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM FRIDAY...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN PERIODICAL DROPS IN CEILINGS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WV AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING, LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BECOME
CUT OFF AND THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL TRANSPIRE.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE IN LOW END VFR ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND MVFR
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT, LIFTING BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AMID TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE. BREEZY WINDS PRESENT AT THE TIME
OF WRITING ARE ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, RETURNING TO LIGHT CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONJURE MVFR
CEILINGS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EST 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05/ARJ
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05
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