765
FXUS61 KRLX 210935
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
535 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TODAY AND
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A BIG BREAK IS THEN FORECAST WITH
SETTLED WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FOR TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND TO OUR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD
BECOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND DCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AS WELL AS MOIST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS IS JUSTIFIED WITH A MARGINAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM WPC WHERE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR TODAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BY
TONIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COURTESY OF A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DROP A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN TOWARD THE AREA OUT TOWARD THE WEST OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM DESTABILIZED SECTOR ACROSS THE
AREA FROM SATURDAY GOING INTO SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, THE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOMETIME IN THE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY HIGH
INSTABILITY, MODEST SHEAR AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL WITH PWATS SLIGHTLY
OVER 1.5 INCHES, MOIST SOUNDINGS, DRIER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
ALONG WITH HIGH DCAPE, HOWEVER THEY WOULD LIKELY BE VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE AND SO CONCERNS FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WHICH WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THEN EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL OPEN UP FOR SETTLED WEATHER THE REST OF SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH A DIURNAL POP UP SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE US RELATIVITY DRY GOING INTO
MIDWEEK AND CENTRAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY HIGHER THAN 10% LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER AHEAD UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN A FEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
FORECAST TO IMPEDE THE REGION WILL LIKELY AFFECT US THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAS ENCOMPASSED THE AREA AND IS AFFECTING
MOST SITES WITH VLIFR IN VIS AND/OR CIGS. AFTER 13/14Z, VFR
WILL TAKE BACK CONTROL OF THE SITES WHICH SHOULD LAST
PREDOMINATELY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND STORMS AT CRW/EKN/BKW
DURING THE AFTERNOON IF HIT DIRECTLY COULD CAUSE SOME
RESTRICTIONS TO VIS/CIGS, HOWEVER WOULD BE VERY TEMPORARY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND LIKELY VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNLESS
UNDER HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND LOW STRATUS THIS
MORNING COULD VARY FROM TAFS. THUNDERSTORM TIMING THIS
AFTERNOON COULD VARY FROM TAFS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 08/21/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L M L M M M M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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