114
FXUS61 KRLX 081443
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1043 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING THEN MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY...
FRESHENED UP SKY CONDITIONS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES AND POPS REMAIN ON TRACK.
RADAR TRENDS DEPICT EARLY MORNING CONVECTION THAT PUSHED THROUGH
KENTUCKY HAS PETERED OUT AS THIS CLUSTER ENTERED INTO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. NO CHANGES FROM SPC FOR TODAY'S MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
AS OF 1250 AM THURSDAY...
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GENERATE DECENT AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES, THEN SOME LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE AS THE FREEZING LEVEL RANGES FROM 8500 TO 10000 FEET.
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR COULD ALSO CAUSE SOME DAMAGING WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT, SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SQUEEZED
BY COOLING TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH SHARP TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY
MORNING. A JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN END OF THE UPWIND
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD SERVE TO HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT REMNANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING, DISSIPATING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUD BASES RISE AS
ASCENT SHIFTS EAST. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF INTO BAROTROPIC LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THERE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE WILL LARGELY BLOCK ADVECTION OF ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE
POLEWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND YIELDING A MAINLY DRY FORECAST OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN POP-UP SHOWERS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, BUT MOST REMAIN DRY AMIDST A WARMING TREND.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S/UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...
EVENTUALLY, THE UPPER LOW WILL START WOBBLING BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST BRINGING ENHANCED MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
NEW WORK WEEK. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS PROGRESSION SOME RUN TO RUN,
AND WOULD STILL EXPECT RATHER POOR HANDING OF THIS FEATURE UNTIL IT
STARTS MOVING AGAIN GIVEN TYPICAL MODEL STRUGGLES WITH CUT-OFF
FEATURES.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LONG DWELL TIME OVER THE SOUTH, AND
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO
BEGIN WITH, NOT EXPECTING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE, ALTHOUGH THE COMBINATION OF SPRING SUN ANGLE AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD STILL YIELD SOME MODEST CAPE. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE PRETTY MODEST AS THE LOW WOBBLE IN LIMITING ANY SEVERE
THREAT, BECOMING VERY LIGHT AS IT WANDERS OVERHEAD.
ONCE THIS FEATURE CLEARS THE REGION, WE LOOK TO GET INTO AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH COULD YIELD A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PATTERN MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 510 AM THURSDAY...
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RESTRICTIONS
TODAY, MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND EARLY MORNING FOG, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT, LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RIVER VALLEY FOG LIFTING MAY
VARY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...MEK/RPY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RPY
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