110  
FXUS61 KRLX 060622  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
222 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE PROMOTES DRY, BUT HOT WEATHER THROUGH THE  
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS BACK THE CHANCE  
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...  
 
TODAY WE HAVE A SORT OF SANDWICH PATTERN GOING ON WITH AN  
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST, WHICH IS FORECAST TO  
IMPACT THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN WE HAVE A TROPICAL  
DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL GRAZE OUR EASTERN  
BORDER OF WEST VIRGINIA TO WHERE CHANCES OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. WE WILL BE NESTLED UNDER HIGH  
PRESSURE HOLDING BACK MOST ACTIVITY POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF  
THE AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE  
LOWLANDS AND UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.  
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WE WILL NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT  
HEAT INDEXES AS THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK. WE  
MAY EVEN GET A SLIGHT BREEZE GOING TODAY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH  
SOME MIXING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GETTING SQUEEZED. A  
CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP, BUT WILL NOT OBSCURE THE SUN  
TODAY, AND THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN VERY DRY, THEREFORE NO HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS EXPECTED WHERE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE FAVORABLE.  
 
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE,  
HOWEVER WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS SO EVEN WITH  
SKIES CLEARING OUT FAIRLY DECENT AND WEAK SURFACE FLOW IT WILL  
BE HARD TO DEVELOP ANY FOG ALTHOUGH SOME VALLEY FOG IN THE  
MOUNTAINS MAY BECOME APPARENT. AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  
TRACKS MORE NORTH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHEAST  
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...  
 
FOR MONDAY, THE SANDWICH PATTERN REMAINS WITH GROWING CHANCES  
OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ACTIVITY OUT AHEAD OF  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON, DIURNAL  
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE  
STILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY IN THE UPPER LEVELS, HOWEVER THERE IS  
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ALONG WITH PWATS UP TO  
1.75 INCHES AND LAPSE RATES ABOVE ENVIRONMENTAL AND WITH HIGH  
DCAPE VALUES, SO THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS UNDER  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  
 
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL, WE WILL HAVE WEAK BULK SHEAR IN THE  
TEENS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY, BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT  
AND ALL THE DRY AIR, WE WILL LIKELY JUST HAVE A HYDRO THREAT TO  
LOCALIZED AREAS WHICH ARE FLOOD PRONE SINCE SLOW MOVING STORMS  
ARE LIKELY WITH ONLY 20KTS OF STEERING FLOW.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH, HOWEVER MOISTURE DOES RISE  
AS DEWPOINTS GET INTO THE MID 70S AT WHICH POINT LOCATIONS WILL  
BE IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE. GUIDANCE DID LOWER  
TEMPERATURES THIS FORECAST RUN, THEREFORE THE TREND MAY BECOME  
TO WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY MAY NOT BE NEEDED WITH THE 100 DEGREE  
MARK FOR 2 HOURS NOT MAKING IT TO FRUITION. WE WILL NEED TO  
KEEP AN EYE ON IT AND RE-EVALUTE IN THE NEXT FORECAST RUN.  
 
FOR TUESDAY, THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE  
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST  
AREA AND INSTEAD RETROGRADE AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY TO OUR  
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THIS DAY WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF  
ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE AREA AND THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL  
BE HIGH, SHEAR WILL STILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE AND WITH NO  
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, IT WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS  
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND LAST AWHILE.  
 
LOW LAPSE RATES, BELOW THE ENVIRONMENTAL RATE, WILL MAKE IT  
HARD TO PROLONG ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH WITH MORE MOISTURE AND A  
SATURATED COLUMN ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DCAPE STORMS WILL BE ABLE  
TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY CAUSE HYDRO ISSUES  
WHERE STORMS MOVE SLOW.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY START TO DECREASE STARTING TUESDAY  
WITH MORE RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE AND REMAIN SO IN THE NEXT  
PERIOD, HOWEVER WE WILL STILL BE JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BECOME  
STATIONARY BUT MEANDER SLIGHTLY ABOUT TO OUR NORTH. A WAVE OF  
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND KEEP IT HOVERING  
INTO OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL  
ALLOW FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD.  
 
MAINLY LOOKING AT ACTIVE DAYTIMES WHERE MOST OF THE  
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND THEN LESS  
ACTIVE NIGHTS ALTHOUGH LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER OR STORMS WILL  
REMAIN OVERNIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD.  
 
IF THE BOUNDARY DOES STAY JUST TO OUR NORTH THE SOUTHERN HALF  
OF OUR ARE MAY BE SPARED MUCH OF THE TIME SINCE HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL RESIDE THERE ALTHOUGH CHANCES FROM CENTRAL BLENDED MODEL  
GUIDANCE HAS US JUST AS BUSY AS THE NORTH, IF NOT BUSIER, ALONG  
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAYTIME. ACCEPTED CENTRAL GUIDANCE AS  
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE LESS ACTIVE IN THE SOUTHERN  
HALF OF THE AREA.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...  
 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG AT PKB AND  
EKN, VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT  
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS IN THE TEENS BY  
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING AS WELL.  
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
DATE SUN 07/06/25  
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13  
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L M L M H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...  
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
CLIMATE  
 
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...  
 
IT WAS A VERY WARM JUNE ACROSS THE NWS CHARLESTON FORECAST  
AREA. MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE 2025 WERE  
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TRANSLATED INTO  
FOUR OFFICIAL NWS CHARLESTON CLIMATE LOCATIONS MAKING THE TOP  
10 IN TERMS OF THEIR WARMEST MEAN JUNE TEMPERATURES ON RECORD.  
PRECIPITATION TOTALS VARIED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA, WITH SOME LOCATIONS BELOW NORMAL, WHILE OTHERS WERE ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 
LISTED BELOW ARE THE LOCATIONS, RANKS, AND OBSERVED VALUES OF  
THE TOP TENS THAT WERE SET.  
 
JUNE 2025 TOP TENS SET (MEAN TEMPERATURE)  
-------------------------------------------------------------  
LOCATION TOP 10 RANK OBSERVED VALUE  
-------------------------------------------------------------  
- ELKINS, WV : 2ND WARMEST -> 71.6 F  
- BECKLEY, WV : 3RD WARMEST -> 71.4 F  
- CLARKSBURG, WV : 3RD WARMEST -> 74.0 F  
- HUNTINGTON, WV : 7TH WARMEST -> 76.9 F  
-------------------------------------------------------------  
 
 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...JZ  
NEAR TERM...JZ  
SHORT TERM...JZ  
LONG TERM...JZ  
AVIATION...JZ  
 
CLIMATE...JZ  
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