027
FXUS61 KRLX 201731
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER AND DRIER
AIR RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...
THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND MID 40S TO MID
50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY LIGHT AND SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INITIALLY STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL YIELD A
DECENT RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT BY DAYBREAK AS THE RIDGES RAPIDLY
WARM. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY TOUCH OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK, BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND ANY RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. AS THE HIGHER MOMENTUM
AIR MIXES DOWN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH.
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER AROUND OF SHOWERS. COLD AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT, WITH H500 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -20C,
WILL STEEPEN MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE, MLCAPE VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS GENERALLY BELOW
15KFT. THIS WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE A THUNDER THREAT, THOUGH SOME
GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT CAN
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...
MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WHILE PARCEL TRAJECTORIES DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT, SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST, THOUGH SOME
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, CONDITIONS
WILL BE IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A
DECENT FROST FOR MANY AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZE IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO REMAIN DRY. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES, DEW POINTS MAY RISE BACK INTO THE 40S, WHICH WOULD REDUCE
THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT FROST OR FREEZE CONCERNS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH
THE REGION, BUT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW, WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING. A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AFTER 06Z TUESDAY WILL CREATE
CONDITIONS FOR LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR, WITH SPEEDS AT 2000 FT
INCREASING TO AROUND 40KTS. THIS WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS FROM
ROUGHLY 07Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. WHILE THIS INCREASING FLOW SHOULD
LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG, SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOST PROTECTED VALLEY LOCATIONS IF IT CAN DEVELOP BEFORE
FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE.
A LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 11Z AND
15Z TUESDAY, BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page