361
FXUS61 KRLX 261058
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
558 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
MILD PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS. AN ARCTIC FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING
A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 555 AM FRIDAY...
MUCH OF THE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARED TO NOT BE
MEASURING.
AS OF 155 AM FRIDAY...
A WAVY FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH IFR TO LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE TIME. THAT FRONT, SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG
THE TUG FORK EARLY THIS MORNING, MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, AS A WARM
FRONT, INTO THE AREA TODAY, AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD, AS A COLD
FRONT, TONIGHT, AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS NORTH OF THE
AREA BUT WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST HEADING.
CLOUDS RETURN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER AREAS THAT CLEARED LAST EVENING, AND SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MAY EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
RAIN WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT CROSSES
AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT, BUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, THE AREA
WILL BE LEFT SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS AND PERHAPS FOG IN A STOUT,
SATURATED LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WAS
SETTING UP A CLASSIC COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT, AND FREEZING RAIN
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WHEN
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THERE TODAY. WITH LOWEST TEMPERATURES
BARELY BELOW FREEZING, DAYTIME TIMING, WARM GROUND, LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND LESS THAN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE, NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AS CONFIDENCE IS STILL
NOT HIGH ENOUGH, BUT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED
AS CONDITIONS UNFOLD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN CONCERT WITH THE FRONT FARTHEST
NORTH TODAY AND FARTHEST SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
REINFORCES THE NORMAL DIURNAL TIMING OTHERWISE DAMPENED BY CLOUD
COVER, WITH THE TEMPERATURES HIGHEST AND FURTHEST ABOVE NORMAL TO
THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND SOUTH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO FIND THE AREA SOCKED IN WITH
STRATUS AND PERHAPS FOG IN A STOUT, SATURATED LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. ANY FOG WILL THIN OUT, AND THE STRATUS MAY BREAK UP
IN THE AFTERNOON, IF THE INVERSION BECOMES SHALLOW ENOUGH. EVEN
SO, IT REESTABLISHES, COMPLETE WITH LOW LEVEL SATURATION, AS
HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE, LOWER AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. ALL THE WHILE, THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SNEAKS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST ALOFT, WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY, AND MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND THEN CLOSES OFF INTO A STOUT MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHILE
MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AREA MONDAY. IN
RESPONSE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COMES TOGETHER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY, AND THEN INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AREA ON MONDAY.
WITH A TRACK MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREDECESSORS THIS
WEEK, RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE
NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURES GRADIENT VANISHES AMID THE ADVANCING
WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS ON SUNDAY, WITH 70 EVEN POSSIBLE IN A FEW SOUTHERN
LOWLAND LOCATIONS AS POINTED OUT IN THE CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...
THE LONG TERM BRINGS A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK, AS TWO
SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVE.
MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF AN ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING ON MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AND FAST APPROACHING
THE MOUNTAINS COME DAWN MONDAY, EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE CASE OF THE ECMWF. THE NAM12 STILL HAS THE FRONT WEST OF THE
OHIO RIVER AT THAT TIME.
EITHER WAY, MODELS SHOW A STOUT LINE OF SHOWERS WITH/JUST AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, WHICH COULD PULL DOWN STRONG WINDS THAT
ARE LIKELY TO BE PRESENT ALOFT LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. SPC HAS
INTRODUCED GENERAL THUNDER IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS RIGHT UP AGAINST OUR WESTERN FLANK, FOLLOWED
BY A POTENTIAL TOO LOW FOR DAY 4, MONDAY.
RAIN EITHER CHANGES TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING, OR THERE IS ANOTHER
BRIEF SHOT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW ONCE THE COLUMN
IS COLD ENOUGH, AS THE MID/UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
AND CROSSES. THE MOUNTAINS STAND TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
CHANGEOVER AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BEHIND THE FRONT, AS WELL
AS A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW AS THE SECOND SHOT OF PRECIPITATION
EVOLVES INTO UPSLOPE SNOW THAT CONTINUES INTO, IF NOT THROUGH,
MONDAY NIGHT.
THE STRENGTHENING SYSTEM WILL ALSO CREATE STRONG WIND GUSTS
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IT APPEARS THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE STRONG AND QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH
FREEZE OF MOISTURE ON SURFACES MONDAY AFTERNOON, OR AT THE
LATEST, UPON ONSET OF DARKNESS MONDAY EVENING, DEPENDING UPON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. WINTER IMPACTS ON THE COMMUTE ARE MOST
LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
BEING IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE IT GETS COLDEST AND SNOWS THE
MOST. MODELS GENERALLY CONCUR ON H85 TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING
INTO THE NEGATIVE 10 TO 15 DEGREE C RANGE, MODEST FOR A LATE
DECEMBER ARCTIC OUTBREAK.
AFTER A DRY, COLD FINISH TO 2025, MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE ARRIVAL AND EVEN SOMEWHAT FASTER TIMING
ON THE SECOND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO START THE NEW YEAR. THERE IS
ALSO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS OUTBREAK, WITH
THE ECMWF NOW IN APPROXIMATE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS IN SHOWING
H85 AIR IN THE NEGATIVE 10 TO 15 DEGREE C RANGE, AND THE CANADIAN
HANGING ON TO SUB -20 C H85 AIR.
CENTRAL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THE BETTER AGREEMENT AND TIMING WITH
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND, ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS, INTO THURSDAY TO START THE NEW YEAR.
AFTER FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY THE END OF THE DAY
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE 10S AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
COMMON.
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO ARE LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAINS AMID THE COLD, BLUSTERY CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT, AND MAY STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THERE AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 555 AM FRIDAY...
A WAVY FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH IFR TO LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE TIME. THAT FRONT, NUDGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN WV COALFIELDS EARLY THIS MORNING, MOVES NORTHEASTWARD,
AS A WARM FRONT, FARTHER INTO THE AREA TODAY, AND THEN RETURNS
SOUTHEASTWARD, AS A COLD FRONT, TONIGHT, AS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA.
CONDITIONS VARIED FROM VFR AT CKB TO LIFR IN STRATUS THAT
PERSISTED EVEN AS THE DENSE FOG DISSIPATED THERE OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS VARIED FROM IFR TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR AT
TIMES.
WITH CKB TO LOWER TO MVFR CEILING BY MID MORNING IF NOT SHORTLY
INTO THE TAF PERIOD, MVFR TO AT TIMES IFR WILL BE COMMON TODAY
AND TONIGHT. IFR IS MOST LIKELY ON CEILINGS SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, AND AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR IN RAIN IS MOST LIKELY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
AROUND THIS MORNING.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, AND THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS THE FRONT RETURNS SOUTHEASTWARD, AS A
COLD FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING, AND THEN
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
A BIT TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY.
MARGINAL LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST
SITES, ALTHOUGH MIXING MAY LIMIT THIS THREAT WITH GUSTY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT PKB
AND CKB EARLY THIS MORNING MAY VARY. OTHERWISE, TIMING OF MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 12/26/25
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H L H M M L H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H M M L L M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M L M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR STRATUS MAY LINGER PAST 12Z SATURDAY. IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND IN RAIN TO SNOW ON MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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