037
FXUS61 KRLX 282332
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
632 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
630 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
DESPITE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT TONIGHT, MOISTURE IS SHALLOW
AND LIMITED TO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THEREFORE, EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE VALLEYS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ENHANCE LIFT
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, RESULTING IN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE CAME A LITTLE COLDER ACROSS SE OH AND
NORTHWEST WV WITH THE LATEST RUN. BUFKIT SOUNDING SUGGESTS
SHALLOW MOISTURE ABOUT 3500 FEET SHOULD ERODE OVERNIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST. THIS MAKES SENSE PER LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES TO THESE AREAS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
RECENT RUN OF THE BLEND OF MODELS HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, BULK OF ACTIVITY STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST.
INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH EXPECTED LOW CLOUD COVER/SATURATION IN CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE.
ADDED JACKSON COUNTY OHIO TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
TONIGHT AS ZONE AVERAGE WIND CHILL IS -5.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. GREATEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT
IS ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, HOWEVER, WITH THE PREDICTED
THICK/LOW CLOUD COVER, A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
- 2) ADDITIONAL SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA,
EVENTUALLY FORMING A CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.
- 3) CONTINUED BITTER COLD DURING THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY THIS WEEKEND,
FROM REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/CLIPPER WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS IT DOES SO. GREATEST AREA FOR CHANCE OF
POPS/LIGHT ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES, BUT WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THURSDAY, AS LOWER CLOUDS TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN
THE POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE/SNOW SHOWERS TO BE PRODUCED AREA WIDE
FROM SATURATION IN CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE. THIS SHOULD IN THEORY
GENERALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
ERODES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF, AND AN
UPPER TROUGH/LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S., EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM/NOR'EASTER ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RECENT
RUN OF THE NBM HAS RESULTED IN INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES, AND LIGHT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THESE AREAS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS GENERALLY LOW TO MEDIUM,
WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
BEING FORCED NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
SE U.S., AND THE NAM AND ECMWF SHUNTING THE BULK OF MOISTURE JUST
OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, WITH AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW STILL PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
NORTHERLY FETCH SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. SO, OVERALL, EXPECT AT
LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AT TIMES
THIS WEEKEND, WHETHER OR NOT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ABLE TO STREAM NORTHWARD/WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA
OR NOT. IF THE CURRENT BLEND OF MODELS FORECAST HOLDS, COULD SEE AT
LEAST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR SOME EXTREME SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
HOPEFULLY, AS WITH TUESDAY NIGHT, ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO LOW. HOWEVER, THIS WEEKEND,
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA, BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, ALONG WITH THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES. THIS PROLONGED COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT AN
INCREASING THREAT TO WATER INFRASTRUCTURE, THOSE REMAINING WITHOUT
POWER FROM OUR PREVIOUS WINTER STORM, AND TO THOSE WHO NEED
ASSISTANCE WHO MAY LIVE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RADAR AND METARS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE EKN AND BKW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES UNDER SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SITES, VFR CONDITIONS UNDER AN ERODING
3500 FEET DECK ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HTS
AND PKB WHERE CLEARING SKIES MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. VFR
CEILINGS AT CRW AND CKB MAY BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT, WITH FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CKB POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY SLACKEN AND
BECOME LIGHT AFTER 03Z, EXCEPT FOR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE
GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO 20 KT RANGE WILL PERSIST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L M M M M M L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ009>011-
019-020-030>032-039-040-516-518-520>522-524-525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083-084.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ARJ/SL
AVIATION...ARJ
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