451
FXUS61 KRLX 311239
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
739 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE POTENT
SYSTEM THAT WILL RING IN THE NEW YEAR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 740 AM WEDNESDAY...
BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND REGIONAL WEBCAMS PRODUCING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THAT PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS TO SEE IF
ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE WARRANTED. ALSO OPTED FOR AN SPS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS MORNING FOR SLICK TRAVEL
POTENTIAL THAT COULD ARISE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
AS OF 500 AM WEDNESDAY...
TWEAKED POPS TO KEEP THEM A BIT HIGHER FOR LONGER AFTER 12Z,
AND ALSO TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FURTHER
SOUTHWEST INITIALLY IN THE MORNING. EVEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODELS ON THE LIGHT SNOW, SUCH AS THE 3KM NAM AND THE REGIONAL
CANADIAN, HAVE THIS WINDING DOWN BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z, SO WE
DON'T CONTINUE THE MORNING LIGHT SNOW POPS BEYOND THAT. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS, BUT COULD BE ENOUGH
TO MAKE ANY UNTREATED ROADS SLICK FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, SOME HINT AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER DROPPING LOW ENOUGH TO BE WARMER THAN -10C,
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME AREAS TO END AS A BIT OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE BEFORE COMPLETELY CUTTING OFF LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, SO
FOR NOW WILL KEEP ALL AS LIGHT SNOW.
AS OF 150 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.
* WIDESPREAD SNOW EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS, WITH LIGHTER BUT STILL IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL FOR MUCH
OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MORE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED
AROUND THE REGION AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCOOTS ACROSS
THE CWA. A MORE SOLID AREA OF SNOW COVERAGE, WITH LOCALLY
MODERATE SNOW, IS NOTED OVER SW OHIO, HEADING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
US OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. POPS WERE BOOSTED A BIT IN THE
SHORT TERM OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA, AND WILL MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER INCREASES LATER TONIGHT.
AFTER A MINIMUM IN PRECIP COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, OUR POTENT NEW YEAR'S EVE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
SNOW BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SOON AFTER SUNSET. SNOW
SPREADS SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WILL LIKELY BE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA FOR
AT LEAST A SEVERAL HOUR BURST, WITH MORE SUSTAINED HEAVY SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WARNING AREA, PERIODS OF SNOWFALL RATES OF 1"/HR OR HIGHER
ARE LIKELY DURING THE LATE EVENING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST DID INCREASE SLIGHTLY, BUT NOT BY A HUGE
AMOUNT, OWING TO A SLIGHT BOOST IN THE QPF FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
IN COLLABORATION WITH RNK, DID EXPAND THE WSW A BIT FURTHER
SOUTHWEST, AND ALSO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO A FEW ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF CHARLESTON. ACROSS MUCH OF
ADVISORY AND WARNING AREA, THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES MAY BE IN
THE HOURS IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ON NEW YEAR'S
EVE, WHICH COULD MAKE TRAVEL TO AND FROM ANY NEW YEAR'S EVE
FESTIVITIES PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS.
SNOW WILL START TAPERING FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS ON NEW YEAR'S DAY, BUT THE NBM WAS LIKELY CUTTING POPS
DOWN TOO QUICKLY, WHICH IS A KNOWN BIAS IN POST-FRONT WNW-NW
FLOW. SO WE WORKED WITH NEIGHBORS TO BOOST POPS A BIT THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* THE NEW YEAR DAWNS WITH OUR WINTER STORM WINDING DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA, AND SNOW SHOULD BE ENDED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* SOME WARMING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
CONTINUING THE THEME FROM THE END OF THE NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION,
WE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS AROUND AND
JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE
CUTTING OFF POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE SNOW, AND
ALMOST ALL OF THE HEAVIER SNOW, WILL BE OVER BY THE FIRST
SUNRISE OF 2026, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW LIKELY LINGERS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. ENCROACHING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING LOWER LEVELS
WILL CUT OFF PRECIP AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE REMAIN DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE CLIPPER'S COLD
FRONT, WITH LOWLAND HIGHS GENERALLY MID-20S TO MID-30S, AND
MOUNTAIN HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. AFTER THE HIGH SLIDES
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST, GENTLE WINDS WILL SHIFT SW'LY,
ALLOWING SOME WARMER AIR TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY, AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...
DRY WEATHER STRETCHES INTO THE WEEKEND AS FORECAST TRENDS
REMAIN ON TRACK WITH A DISTURBANCE ORIGINATING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STAYING WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHERN VA COALFIELDS, SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE OVERALL DRY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS UNDER A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL ON
TEMPERATURES UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MODELS START TO DISAGREE ON DISTURBANCES OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA EARLY NEXT WEEK, IN TERMS OF TIMING AND WHETHER THEY
WILL IMPACT US OR MISS US TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT, POPS ARE
KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS LEAD TIME.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 600 AM WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS CAUSING A RANGE OF
CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO VFR, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z, SNOW
SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA, AND MANY SITES MAY BRIEFLY POP UP TO
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH CKB AND EKN LOOK TO REMAIN
UNDER AN MVFR CLOUD DECK. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROBUST
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TO NORTHERN SITES AROUND OR JUST
BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING, QUICKLY SPREADING SOUTH BY 03Z.
CONDITIONS COULD QUICKLY DROP TO IFR OR LIFR IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST TAF SITES CONDITIONS SHOULD
START TO IMPROVE FOR MOST BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA, BRINGING GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND A SHIFT TO A MORE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW.
SW'LY WINDS, INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY TO 15-20KTS THROUGH THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE A BIT LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER, POSSIBLY ON THE ORDER OF
30-40KTS AFTER 00Z. LLWS MAY PERSIST OVER AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS INITIALLY BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN RETURN LATER TONIGHT, HOWEVER IT IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS COULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THIS MORNING IN ANY AREAS OF SNOW.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT MAY
CAUSE FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES TO VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H L H H H H H H H H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H H L
CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H M H H M
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY EXPECTED IN AREAS OF SNOW INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ008>011-013>020-025>031-034-515>517-524.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR WVZ032-039-040-518>523-525-526.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR OHZ076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...05/FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK
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