541
FXUS61 KRLX 300730
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A POTENT LOW BRINGS STOUT RAINFALL FRIDAY, WITH STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH. SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER SATURDAY. DRY
NEXT WEEK, TURNING HOT BY MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...
MOST VALLEYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV, INTO NE KY AND SW
VA APPEAR TO HAVE FOG OR LOW STRATUS IN THEM, EVEN IN AREAS THAT
HAVE HAD HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOG IS MORE PATCHY IN NATURE, OR
ABSENT ALTOGETHER, OVER MOST OF SE OH AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV,
THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW A QUICK DETERIORATION
THERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BETWEEN RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST, AND WINDS STARTING TO STIR AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, FOG SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM THIS MORNING.
THAT RAIN, CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SW OHIO AND CENTRAL KY, SHOULD
WORK EAST TOWARDS THE HUNTINGTON TRI-STATE AREA BETWEEN SUNRISE
AND 9 AM, THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA BY AROUND
MIDDAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS THIS MORNING, THEN UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM
ADVECTION TO PROMOTE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRONGER
STORMS, AND SPC DID MAINTAIN THE MARGINAL RISK OVER OUR AREA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR STRONG WINDS, BUT GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARIES AND LOW, AND SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING NICELY LOOPING HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOWER LEVELS, IF A
STRONG ENOUGH STORM DEVELOPS, A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ONCE
THE LOW PUSHES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH A GIVEN LOCATION, THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD END THERE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
THE MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD
LARGELY BE TAMPED DOWN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TRAILING UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A RESURGENCE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THE CURRENT
QPF FORECAST USING MOSTLY WPC DATA SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1.00"
OR MORE FOR THE OHIO VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE CHARLESTON METRO
AND EAST TO THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR OUR FAR NW
COUNTIES, AND OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
TOTALS GETTING UP TO OR EVEN OVER 2" APPEARS TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND THEIR WESTERN SLOPES. GIVEN THAT THIS AREA HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 1.5-2.25" OF RAIN IN THE TUE-THURS SYSTEM, THAT
WOULD BE OUR MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING. WHILE
A FEW OF THE HREF MEMBERS SHOW CONCERNING HIGH-END RAINFALL
POTENTIAL, AT THIS TIME, IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS AND WPC,
WE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY EXPANSION OF THE FLOOD WATCH INTO
OUR CWA AND WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO MONITOR THE MORNING
MODEL DATA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW OVER NYC AND MORE
EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE STATIONED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL
YIELD MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION ALOFT - M22C AT H500.
DESPITE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, LATE MAY SUN ANGLE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO YIELD AT LEAST SOME SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION OF
PARCELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR (HIGHEST SOUTH), ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS IS SOMEWHAT
QUESTIONABLE. CURRENTLY WE ARE OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR A MARGINAL RISK
OF WIND AND HAIL FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND IF
DESTABILIZATION COMES IN ON THE HIGHER END THIS DOES SEEM LIKE A
POSSIBILITY. THINK THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE ALONG THE
LINES OF GRAUPEL SHOWERS GIVEN THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
NARROW SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.
NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE SATURDAY UNDER COOL
ADVECTION, GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 MPH.
COOLER AIR ALOFT SHOULD PIVOT OUT OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY
TAKING ANY INSTABILITY WITH IT.
DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...
HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUING DRY CONDITION AND
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEAR 90 DEGREES (THIS WILL REMAIN
SHORT OF DAILY RECORDS AT ALL SITES).
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES WITH A COLD FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE UPSTREAM OF ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WIT THE EML LOOK TO GET PRETTY
EXTENSIVELY WORKED OVER WELL UPSTREAM OF THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE RISK
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MODEL SPREAD OPENS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT A
GENERAL CONSENSUS KEEPS US UNSETTLED, EITHER WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WORKING UP OVER IT, OR A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DOING IT BY ITSELF.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS DONE FOR NOW UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVERAGE IS ON ITS WAY OUT BUT MORE
CIRRUS AND LOWER STRATUS WILL ADVECT IN AND DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
RESPECTIVELY. HAVE CODED UP ALL SITES WITH IFR OR WORSE IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS FROM THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS
UNTIL SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO LOW MVFR OR
BETTER BY LATE MORNING THEN A SYSTEM BRINGS IN RAIN FROM THE
WEST STARTING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN TERMINALS FIRST WITH RESTRICTIONS TO VIS
UNDER HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CIGS WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN
HEIGHT AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SAME GOES FOR THE
EASTERN SITES WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK SURFACE WIND WILL PICK UP SOME FOR THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS LIKELY UNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY AND BKW
WILL REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG AND LOW CLOUD FORMATION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT ARE UNCERTAIN AND WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND IN VIS/CIGS.
TIMING OF RAIN ARRIVAL AND INTENSITY FRIDAY MORNING MAY VARY,
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEEDED ADDED TO SOUTHERN SITES FOR FRIDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/30/25
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L M M M M L H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M H M H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M L H H H M H M
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FK/JP
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...FK
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