307
FXUS61 KRLX 150950
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
550 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
311 AM UPDATE...
REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE WEATHER GRIDS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LAST BATCH OF RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT PRESSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL WOBBLE OVERHEAD BEFORE LIFTING
BACK AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. SMALL AREAS OF MARGINAL RISKS
(LEVEL 1) FOR SEVERE AND FLOODING WERE PLACED IN VARIOUS SPOTS
OF THE CWA TODAY IN THE DAY ONE OUTLOOKS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STALLED FRONT PARKED OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS A
WARM FRONT TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
THIS EVENING.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES ON FRIDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS,
STORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. A SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR INFILTRATING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD A CHILLY
WEEKEND, WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTS LEFTOVER SHOWERS FROM
LAST NIGHT SLOWLY PETERING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS,
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS SPROUTING AROUND THE FORECAST AREA AMID
BLANKETED STRATUS. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD
FRONT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SERVE UP LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE
PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHER NORTHWARD IN OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED. THE SEVERE
RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PRIMARILY ALIGNED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, BUT A MARGINAL RISK CLIPS PORTIONS OF PERRY COUNTY FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HYDRO CONCERNS WILL
BE GEARED TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS AND GREENBRIER VALLEY, WHERE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGH WATER ISSUES.
OTHERWISE, THE CHARLESTON METRO AND TRI-STATE AREAS AND DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN COALFIELDS WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE OUR NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN
ZONES WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S DUE TO LINGERING
CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL.
TURNING QUIETER TONIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS COMING
TO AN END. AN ENCROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLATED TO ARRIVE
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL PLANT THE CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH LOWS HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF OF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
THURSDAY WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ATTACHED TO THE FRONT DASHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD GUSTY WINDS BY FRIDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE FORECAST
WIND GUSTS COULD REACH STRENGTHS OF 30 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR.
POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE TO INFILTRATE
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINATION WILL
ADVERTISE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS LINGERING SHOWERS BECOME
SUPPRESSED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN UNLIKELY
WITH THIS EVENT FOR SNOW, BUT A FEW FLAKES COULD TRANSPIRE ALONG
OUR HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WRAP UP BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
HELP TO SOFTEN THE GRIPS OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSE
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO GRADUALLY PETER OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND, ENCOURAGING ARCTIC AIR TO CONTINUE PRESSING OVER
THE AREA. THIS WILL YIELD WEEKEND MORNING LOWS TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED. A MODERATING TREND SLOWLY ARISES HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATES TO THE EAST AND WINDS VEER
BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TRIUMPH THIS MORNING IN THE
FORM OF LOWERED CEILINGS, CEILINGS, AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE
TO A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO LIFT AS
A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GRADUAL CEILING IMPROVEMENTS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERIODICALLY DEVELOP TODAY AND COULD RESULT IN AMENDMENTS DUE TO
THE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS THEY MAY CAUSE. PATCHY FOG MAY THEN FORM
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL WINDS.
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. LACK OF A
NOCTURNAL INVERSION TONIGHT WILL IMPOSE OCCASIONAL BREEZES TO
REMAIN PREVALENT OVERNIGHT. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET FORMS
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MAIN
IMPACTS WITHIN THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE THE INTRODUCTION OF
LLWS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AFTER
DAYBREAK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS WILL PERIODICALLY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST DEPENDING ON RAINFALL, LOW STRATUS, AND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING. IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER TODAY MAY
ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H M H H L H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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