531
FXUS61 KRLX 190622
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHERN MOST PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
2) TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO BELOW SEASONABLE FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
3) THE NEXT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TAKES PLACE TODAY AND WILL HOVER SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST PARTS OF
THE CWA OR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THESE POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GENERAL KIND OR SUB-SEVERE WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG
LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS. WPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA TO
SUPPORT THIS FLOODING POTENTIAL.
BY AFTERNOON, THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA AND STAY FAR TO THE SOUTH PROMOTING SETTLED WEATHER AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL SOME SMOKE WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE
REGION FORM THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, HEIGHTS WILL RISE
AND SETTLED WEATHER WILL TAKEOVER THE ENTIRE AREA AND KEEP THE
AREA SETTLED THROUGH MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA
HEIGHTS WILL START TO FALL AND ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM ON TUESDAY AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
IN FROM ITS PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONABLE FOR SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO FALL FOR THE THE NEW WORK
WEEK COURTESY OF THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL
SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA AS NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES PASS
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD
UNTIL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES INTO PLAY AND PROMOTES SETTLED
WEATHER PAST MIDWEEK AND FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FOR TUESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL DRAG THROUGH A COLD
FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. AFTER LOOKING THROUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER AS THE
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SUPPORT THIS
VERY FAVORABLY. A MODEST JET WILL HANG OVERHEAD AND PROMOTE
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHEAR WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REPRESENTING OVER 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LEVELS.
VERY HIGH HELICITY AND LOW LCLS WILL PROMOTE A TORNADIC THREAT
AS WELL. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS WELL
THEREFORE IF IT IS DURING THE DAYTIME WE COULD SEE A LOT MORE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS, OVER 2.0 INCH VALUES, WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM. THIS ALONG WITH EXTREMELY HIGH DCAPE
VALUES WILL PROMOTE DOWNBURSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD
ALSO RAISE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. ANOTHER MAJOR
PART OF THE SEVERE THREAT MAY JUST BE A HYDRO EVENT AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY IF THE ACTIVITY RESIDES DURING THE EVENING AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS AS STEERING FLOW SLOWS DOWN.
THE REST OF THE INDICES, INCLUDING THE SUPER CELL PARAMETER AND
LARGE HAIL PARAMETER ARE IMPRESSIVE, BUT THESE PARAMETERS COULD
CHANGE FROM NOW UNTIL THEN. HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER SUCH AS DAMAGING WIND WILL LIKELY HOLD TRUE. SPC HAS US
IN A 15% RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR
TUESDAY ALONG WITH WPC HAVING US IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE AN IMPRESSIVE
EVENT WITH AN ALL HAZARDS RISK.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL LIMIT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SITES WILL ENDURE VALLEY FOG AND SOME
FAIRLY DENSE SUCH AS CRW/EKN. EKN VIS SENSOR IS DOWN, THEREFORE
THERE WILL BE NO AMDS AT THIS SITE. LOW STRATUS WILL DOMINATE AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING THEN LIFT OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FROM THEN ON, VFR IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER BKW COULD HAVE A SHOWER
OR STORM WHICH COULD CAUSE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A MIX OF FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENTS MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 07/19/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H M L H H M H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M L L H H H H L H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M M H M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M L L L L H L H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M L M H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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