316
FXUS61 KRLX 302335
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
735 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE DONE TO D1 POPS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR
TONIGHT.
AS OF 720 PM THURSDAY...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. ADDED SOME VALLEY FOG IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
2.) A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS.
3.) A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COOLER CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS
LOWER CANADA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S OR UPPER
20S IN SPOTS WILL ALLOW FOR FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS TONIGHT,
TO A LESSER DEGREE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH LOWS ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S IN SPOTS.
THE LIMITING REAGENT IN FROST FORMATION THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS
LOOKS TO BE CLOUD COVER, WHICH MAY HUG THE RIDGES TONIGHT.
TOMORROW FROST POTENTIAL SHIFTS WEST INTO EASTERN OHIO, BUT MORE
STOUT CLOUD COVER MAY LOWER THIS RISK ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
HEADLINE ISSUANCE. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH LINGERING CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO BE FLEETING NEAR THE RIDGES AS WE NEAR SUNRISE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED IN
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO
ROUND THROUGH THE FLOW AND EACH BRINGS RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
TODAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AFTER SUNSET. CHANCES PICK UP AGAIN WITH
THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO RETURN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN
HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL OHIO.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KICKS EASTWARD SATURDAY, ALLOWING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FAVORING THE EASTERN RIDGES, AIDED BY
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. HEIGHT RISES AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO AGREE ON ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE EASTERN CONUS SOMETIME MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES STILL DON'T YET FULLY AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THIS
WAVE, WITH CLUSTERED ENSEMBLES FAVORING A POSSIBLY SLOWER WAVE.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING, THE PRESENCE OF THIS
WAVE LIKELY RENEWS RAIN CHANCES AND PROMOTES ANOTHER PUSH OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AS DIURNAL
CUMULUS DISSIPATES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT EKN, WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS
MOISTENED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR FOG
AT CRW, CKB, AND PKB. GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT
THESE TERMINALS WITH ONLY A HINT OF FOG OR LOW CLOUD FOR NOW
HEADING INTO DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KT ON FRIDAY BEHIND
A PASSING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS AND BRIEF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT WITH FOG, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLOUD COVER AT EKN MAY BE SLOW TO
DISSIPATE, SLOWING FORMATION OF ANY FOG. FOG COULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WHERE AT LEAST PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN FELL TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H M M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR IN FOG SUNDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ031-032-039-040-515>522-524.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP/99
AVIATION...JP
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