530
FXUS61 KRLX 082053
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
453 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO. GIVEN SUCH, HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, WITH
ANY ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
154 PM UPDATE...
~18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
1231 PM UPDATE...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT INCREASES FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING DRY, QUIET, AND VERY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
2) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING
STORMS COULD PROMPT LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO BE AN INFLUENCE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT. THE LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S, WHILE THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY BETWEEN THE LOW 70S
AND MID 80S.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP IT FROM BEING TOO DENSE, MOSTLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY PERMITTING
THE ENTRANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD INITIALLY BE STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE ACROSS OUR OHIO COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BE CONDITIONAL, DEPENDING MOSTLY ON WHERE THE BEST FORCING
OF THE FRONT WILL BE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WANES QUITE A BIT ON THURSDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND SLOW
FRONT MOTION MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
THE MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
WILL LEAD TO CONCERNS FOR LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING BETWEEN
1.00" AND 2.00" OF RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND
OH BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST OF THIS
WILL FALL THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE STUBBORN FRONT FINALLY
TRUDGES OUT OF THE AREA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THIS FRONT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTH AND PARKS NEARBY.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCT TO BKN HIGH-END MVFR AND VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
CIGS WILL RISE GRADUALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (4-7 KNOTS) AND OUT OF THE SSW.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM TONIGHT, MOSTLY ACROSS THE
RIVER VALLEYS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, BUT CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT WINDS MAY IMPEDE IT FROM OCCURRING IN MOST LOCATIONS
AND FROM BEING TOO DENSE IN GENERALLY. IFR OR LOWER IS FORECAST
FOR CRW AND EKN. OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR OR MVFR AT
THE WORST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG LOCATION AND INTENSITY COULD VARY FROM
THE FORECAST TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ROUNDS SHOWERS/STORMS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD SET AT CHARLESTON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION AT CHARLESTON THIS AUGUST WAS 10.92
INCHES, MAKING IT THE WETTEST AUGUST ON RECORD. THIS BREAKS THE
OLD RECORD OF 10.45 INCHES SET IN 1958.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW/LTC
AVIATION...LTC
CLIMATE...GW
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