786
FXUS61 KRLX 071018
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD AND GENERALLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO RETREAT FROM THE MIDDLE-OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE PARENT LOW LUMBERS ACROSS JAMES BAY AND CENTRAL
QUEBEC. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT, AND A SWIFT
RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AFTER ITS PASSAGE, BENIGN WEATHER IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DURING THE WEEKEND, A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO INVADE THE
GULF STATES BEFORE MERGING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
TROUGH AND LOW MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM HEADS INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY; HOWEVER, THIS DRIER INTERLUDE IS LIKELY TO
BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH AND FERRIES A
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 12-14Z, THEN VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE AS
A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS COULD
PROMPT A FEW RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, THEN PIVOT TO
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS MORNING,
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M L M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M L L M M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY OUTSIDE OF LATE-NIGHT
AND EARLY-MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG. CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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