432
FXUS61 KRLX 010526
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND COMING IN A BIT
FASTER, MORE SATURDAY NIGHT THAN SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY.
- 2) A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR BACK TO THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY, BEFORE STALLING, AND THEN RETURNING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WORK WEEK.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND HOW MUCH HEATING CAN OCCUR SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
LARGE HAIL.
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS HAVE DIVERGED A BIT ON THE TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
SOME MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A FASTER TIMING WITH THE FRONT
ARRIVING SATURDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS, THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE BRINGING COOLER AIR FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS COULD SET
THE AREA UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZING CONDITIONS.
MODELS ARE NOW FURTHER NORTH WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THIS COULD LEAVE THE AREA IN WARMER AIR, OR WITH
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN DEEPER
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA TODAY, BEFORE STALLING NEAR PKB, AND THEN
RETURNING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, MOST INTENSE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH A
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW, WITH MVFR CLOUDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND FLOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, BUT HAVE BEEN TIMED TO THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING IN THE TAFS. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY. EXTENT OF
LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 04/01/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H H L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
BRIEF IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY/SL
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