454
FXUS61 KRLX 210350
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1050 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
QUICK HITTING CLIPPER WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY. DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES BY DAWN TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1050 PM FRIDAY...
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A TOUCH LOWER THAN FORECAST. THE SNOW
SHOWERS WERE MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER, BUT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS, AND SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS OF WV, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, GIVEN MID LEVEL
DRYING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...
FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK, WITH SNOW CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS OF WV,
INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON AREA. A WEST TO EAST AXIS OF WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WV UNTIL
DISSIPATING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THERE FILLS COMPLETELY TONIGHT,
MAKING FOR A SLOWER TRANSITION TO SNOW THERE. 1.1 INCHES OF
SNOW HAS FALLEN NEAR FLAT TOP/GHENT, WV, SOUTH OF BECKLEY, SINCE
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH JUST A COATING AT BECKLEY.
AS OF 120 PM FRIDAY...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING, WITH
AN UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY, BUT MAY TAPER OFF TO A
-DZ LATER IN THE EVENING AS MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES TO ERODE.
PERIODS OF FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, OWING TO CAA
AND TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT, RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO NUDGE IN. EXPECTING LITTLE
RISE IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SNOW TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE RATHER LIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH GENERALLY A DUSTING TO HALF AN
INCH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL YIELD PLUNGING TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND AS FAR DOWN AS THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS. COUPLED WITH LINGERING GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS, A FEW LOCATIONS COULD OBSERVE WIND CHILLS BELOW
ZERO.
DRY WEATHER THEN TRIUMPHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY WITH A WARMING TREND ENSUING FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO RISE UP INTO THE
40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE 30S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING BY THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY MONDAY
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SERVE AS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION HEADING
INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. MODELS SHOW THIS SOUTHERN STREAMED
SYSTEM EVOLVING BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND VENTURING ITS WAY TO
EAST AROUND MIDWEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE PULLS IN GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD A WARMING TREND FIRST
NOTED WITHIN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 40S/50S WILL BE COMMON ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
CONTRIBUTING TO A MOSTLY RAIN FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY ONCE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES INTO THE REGION. WHILE A FEW SPOTS,
PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS, SNEAK OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS, THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS EVENT DOWN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOKS TO
FALL AS RAIN.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING FILLS TONIGHT, AS ITS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL COUNTERPART DRIFTS QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORST AT BKW, WITH MVFR TO AT TIMES VLIFR IN
SNOW THIS EVENING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR THERE UNTIL MID-MORNING SATURDAY,
BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR.
NEXT IS CRW AND EKN, WHERE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX THIS EVENING
BECOMES ALL SNOW TONIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE TIME AT CRW
WHILE LOWERING FROM MVFR TO IFR AT EKN TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
BE MVFR AT BOTH LOCATIONS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS THE SNOW
DIMINISHES, AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN AT PKB MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE
TONIGHT, POSSIBLY LOWERING THE LOW MVFR CEILINGS THERE TO IFR.
OTHERWISE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THERE IMPROVE
TO VFR EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LASTLY, HTS AND CKB MAY HAVE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TONIGHT WITH
BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BECOME MORE PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT AFTER AT TIMES VFR AT CKB AND
IFR AT HTS. THESE MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR THERE EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES SOUTHERN
SITES HTS, CRW AND BKW TONIGHT, AND THEN NORTHWEST, GUSTY AT
TIMES SITES IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, BKW, EKN AND CKB, LATE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST, INCLUDING FURTHER DETERIORATION TONIGHT, AND
THEN IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 12/21/24
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H M L L H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
WVZ024>026-033-034-515-517-519.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ516-518-
520>523-525-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-
004.
SYNOPSIS...MEK/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/SL
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...TRM
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