352
FXUS61 KRLX 202239
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
639 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WHEN
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST
ROBUST ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN CONCERT WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES.
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON, THEN THE NEXT
ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ARRIVES THIS EVENING. A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA,
WHERE HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD RAPIDLY PRODUCE A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS THAT ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY
RAIN EARLIER TODAY WILL BE AT GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAIN ON MONDAY COULD NECESSITATE AN
EXTENSION TO THE FLOOD WATCH. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
COULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR FLOODING AS AN UPPER TROUGH SPIRALS ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE VFR, ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE RESTRICTIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE LOCATION IS LOW. IN ADDITION, FOG
OR LOW STRATUS COULD FORM AT LOCATIONS WHERE THERE ARE ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
EXPECT A RISING CUMULUS DECK ON MONDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING, THEN LOW LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY OR
MAY NOT FORM OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L M M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M L L L L L L L
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
MID WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WVZ006>011-013>020-
026>032-039-040-517>526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...RPY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page