578
FXUS61 KRLX 260954
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
554 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE. RADAR TRENDS REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH PREVIOUS THINKING, WITH A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AIMING FOR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
302 AM UPDATE...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR LATE
THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, CARRYING A SLIGHT RISK FOR
PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
ORIENTATION OF ACTIVITY DRAPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK TONIGHT EITHER, WITH A MARGINAL RISK SLATED
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE FIRST
ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING ALONG A WARM FRONT,
FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONITORING FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THIS SECOND ROUND.
- 2) HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, PROMPTING A MULTI-DAY DRY SPELL. RENEWED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TAKES AIM FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEGINNING
ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A QUIET START TO THE DAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY TWO ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
THE FIRST ROUND ENCROACHES THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING,
GLIDING ALONG A PASSING WARM FRONT. HI-RES CAMS DEPICT THIS
CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY REACHING THE TRI-STATE AROUND 8 TO 9 AM,
PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND DIMINISHING IN SIZE BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT, COUPLE WITH RADAR COVERAGE, WILL DETERMINE TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WILL ENCOURAGE A STRONGER RISE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
TODAY, WITH OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BRANCHING INTO THE LOW 80S
WHILE THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS PLATEAU AROUND THE MID 70S DUE
TO LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND LINGERING PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT.
A COLD FRONT, ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, TRAVELS DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY WILL
BEAR CLOSE MONITORING LATE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD. TIMING OF STORMS PLAYS A ROLE IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS,
WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THE FURTHER SOUTH ACTIVITY TRAVELS TONIGHT. A SIMILAR
SETUP TOOK PLACE THIS PAST WEEKEND, WHERE STORMS RETAINED STRONG
TO LOW END SEVERE STRENGTH AS THEY VENTURED DOWN INTO PERRY
COUNTY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PROCEEDED TO WEAKEN FURTHER
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHILE LOSING SEVERITY
CHARACTERISTICS, STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING, BURSTS OF STRONGER WINDS, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR LATE
THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, CARRYING A SLIGHT RISK FOR
PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL REMAINS SLATED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH IN ITS WAKE. THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION MAY TRANSITION
OVER TO A WET RAIN/SNOW MIX, AND COULD LEAD TO VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER AN ACTIVE END TO THE WORK WEEK, THE WEEKEND WILL SHAPE UP
TO BE PLEASANT AMID ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE SLIDES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY AND WILL RETAIN STRONG
INFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BOLSTER A WARMING TREND TO TRANSPIRE BY SUNDAY,
RETURNING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK
MAY BEGIN TO ENCOURAGE RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
DESPITE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
ROUNDS OUT THE DAYS 6 THROUGH 7 FORECAST PERIOD (TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY), WITH PEAK AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 80
DEGREES AMID AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE SETTLED INTO THE AREA FROM
ONSHORE FLOW AND PASSING SHORTWAVES.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MORNING RADAR TRENDS DEPICT A CLUSTER OF STORMS PROGRESSING FROM
INDIANA INTO OHIO, WITH AN ANTICIPATED TRACK INTO OUR WESTERN
TERMINALS SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
ACTIVITY WILL THEN PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE FADING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DRAPED ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO
WHETHER STORMS WILL RETAIN STRONG TO SEVERE STRENGTH AS THEY
DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OPTED TO COVER THIS WITH PROB30 GROUPS WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE LIES WITH CEILING REDUCTIONS ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RADAR ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL BLANKET THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
SLUGGISHLY PROGRESSES OVERHEAD.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS PLAUSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL THEN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AFTER DAYBREAK
AND WILL PROMPT A BREEZY DAY, WITH GUSTS ON THE UPWARDS OF 20
TO 25KTS INCLUDED FOR EACH SITE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WITHIN MORNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HTS, CRW, OR PKB.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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