340
FXUS61 KRLX 121005
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
605 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 12Z DISCUSSION.
INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA IS LARGELY SLIDING
SOUTH, WEST OF AS ADVERTISED. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE IN/OH BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST, EVENTUALLY BEING CAUGHT UP TO BY THE PREVIOUS
ALLUDED TO COMPLEX COMING OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THE FORMER
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRODUCING ROBUST RAINFALL AND EXHAUSTING
QUITE A BIT OF UPSTREAM INSTABILITY. THIS MAY SOMEWHAT REDUCE
BOTH SEVERE AND HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL LATER TODAY, ESPECIALLY
IF IT CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH IN WARM ADVECTION THIS
MORNING.
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY....
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH WIND SPEEDS THRESHOLDS FOR TREE
UPROOTING SUPPRESSED BY SATURATED SOILS. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) ELEVATED FLASH FLOODING RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DUE TO ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER SATURATED SOILS AND HIGH STREAMFLOWS
FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL.
2.) LOCALIZED GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
3.) BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AS EARLY AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
GIVEN ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS SOILS
REMAIN THOROUGHLY SATURATED ACROSS THE REGION. STREAMS ALSO
REMAIN HIGH. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ROUNDS THIS MORNING,
TONIGHT, AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE INDICATE AN AIRMASS CAPABLE OF
EFFICIENT, HIGH RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESSED WITH
VALUES OF AROUND INCH IN 3 HOURS SUFFICIENT FOR RENEWED ISSUES.
THE FLOOD WATCH IS KEPT UNCHANGED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
TRIMMING OF NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT
HEAVIER RAINFALL CORES TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN INDIANA ALONG AN EASTWARD
ADVECTING INSTABILITY GRADIENT MAY APPROACH WESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO INITIATE IN WARM
ADVECTION OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO, TRACKING
TOWARD WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING. PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THIS INITIAL ROUND INCLUDE LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES.
A SECOND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX, ORIGINATING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, IS PROJECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
LATE ARRIVAL TIME, SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MAY ALREADY BE
WANING, SOME WHAT LIMITING SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL. IN SATURATED
SOILS, EVEN SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS CAN UPROOT TREES AND CAUSE
POWER OUTAGES DUE TO LOST SOIL FRICTION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON
SATURATED BASINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAY RENEW FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS.
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN MODEL SPREAD IN
RIDGE-RIDING SHORTWAVES AND EVOLUTION OF THE BROADER INSTABILITY
FIELD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, SHIFTING THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK NORTHWARD AND ALLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD FOR
SOILS TO DRY OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 80S
ACROSS THE METRO VALLEY AND LOWLANDS WITH LOWER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES. BY SUNDAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOUTHWARD,
REOPENING THE CORRIDOR FOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO RIDE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL US. HEAT DOME. STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT RENEWED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, THOUGH OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM ACTIVITY HAS
LARGELY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LIMITING FOG IMPACTS WITH
PRIMARILY PATCHY STRATUS. SHOULD SEE THIS LIFT THROUGH 13-14Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY TO OUR WEST ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE AT HTS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ALONG THE OH/IN BORDER
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND PERHAPS BUILD BACK TO THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEING CAUGHT UP TO BY ACTIVITY
PRESENTLY OVER THE NE/IA BORDER AND THEN OVERSPREAD US FROM THE
WEST. OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND CELL COVERAGE
WARRANTS VCTS AND PROB30 GROUPS RATHER THAN PREVAILING
THUNDERSTORM MENTIONS AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT OF STRATUS MAY VARY
THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
MAY VARY LATER TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H M H M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H M M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M L H H M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
PERIODIC CHANCES OF COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR IFR
IN HEAVY RAIN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. ANY CLEARING OF
SKIES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY STRATUS OR FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHTS GIVEN VERY WET GROUND CONDITIONS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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