165
FXUS61 KRLX 031713
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
113 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
111 PM...UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT DETAILS REGARDING TIMING AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THIS WEEK, LEADING TO NUMEROUS DAYS
OF DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, REACHING THE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR THIS PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE EXACT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AND TIMING ARE ALL
UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WHILE OTHERS SHOW DRY
WEATHER RETURNING AMID HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS, POTENTIALLY CAUSING
IFR RESTRICTIONS AT CRW AND EKN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z THURSDAY,
BEFORE IMPROVING. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY, TURNING
CALM OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MIGHT BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
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