129
FXUS61 KRLX 091909
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
309 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY
SUPPRESSED BY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ACTIVE WEEK CONTINUES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE
THROUGH TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE POTENTIALLY ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SUCCESSIVE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS TIME
MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- 2) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
- 3) VERY WARM TO HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
GIVEN THE EXTENDED STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER, HEAT
SAFETY WILL BE IMPORTANT, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY, WHICH IS LIKELY
TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THIS CURRENT STRETCH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY HOVERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHWEST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WHILE A SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ROUNDS OF RAIN, AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS, THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES,
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RATHER EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGH THE NIGHT. BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING, 12Z MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICALLY WHERE, OR IF, HIGHER AMOUNTS (>2") WOULD
MATERIALIZE IS LOW.
THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN AS SUCCESSIVE
ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. ONE THING TO NOTE: SOUTHWEST VA,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WV HAVE BEEN THE DRIEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION SUSTAINING DROUGHT AND BELOW NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS THIS MONTH. HOWEVER, EVEN IN THIS AREA, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE IF HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAIN WERE TO
ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, A FEW STORMS
COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS TODAY. ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WEAK RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD FOR THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
AMID HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THAT AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FURTHER AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE PASSING BY
DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD HELP TO
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONGER DOWNBURST WINDS.
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONGER STORMS
COULD ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
THEN THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MURKY AS MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON HOW LONG THE DRY SPELL LASTS BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH HOTTEST
CONDITIONS PROJECTED TO OCCUR ON THURSDAY. WITH LOWLAND HIGHS
PROJECTED TO REACH UPPER 80S TO 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S,
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT HEAT ADVISORIES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO PROMPTING
PERIODIC MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AMID
CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS GRADUALLY START TO IMPROVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES, WITH STRONGEST
GUSTS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M L H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY AND EVEN AT NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EPISODES OF LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING IFR OR WORSE FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS WEEK, LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON WHERE RAINFALL
OCCURS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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