915
FXUS61 KRLX 240557
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LINGERING RAINFALL ENDS BY MID-MORNING. MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
SHIFTS TO CLEARING SKIES, DROPPING DEWPOINTS, AND POTENTIAL
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) RAIN TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE VALLEY FOG EXPANDS OVERNIGHT.
2.) DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A WARMING TREND BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE LOW
80S BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A MID-WEEK COLD FRONT AND RETURNING
RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STRATIFORM RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO ERODE FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE CORE OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS SOUTH AND MID AND UPPER-LEVEL DRY
ADVECTION TAKES HOLD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FLOW WILL FILTER A
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION, FORCING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND INTO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING, LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL
PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. COLD AIR DRAINAGE INTO
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S HEADING INTO DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY MORNING. A
FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS, WITH POTENTIAL EXPANSION INTO PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS
DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON DEWPOINT TRENDS. ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LOWLANDS, MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INITIALLY LIMIT FOG
FORMATION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND METRO VALLEY, LIGHTER FLOW
WILL ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP EARLIER. FOG WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY AS SURFACE WINDS PROGRESSIVELY GO LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, KEEPING LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND UPPER 50S TO 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL
SUPPORT CRISP CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST AS A DYNAMIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RESUME ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT, INITIATING A STEADY WARMING TREND. LOWLAND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY AND
LOW 80S BY WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, DRIVING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BACK NEAR 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE ROBUST, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK,
KEEPING ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY MEAGER AND LIMITING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL ERODE FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRY ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10KTS SHOULD
LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK DESPITE WET SURFACE
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, SCATTERED FRACTURED STRATUS CEILINGS
AROUND 800 TO 1200 FT AGL MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT RAPIDLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z,
YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
UNDER NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10KTS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING. FOG FORMATION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS
INCLUDING KCRW AND KHTS WHERE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE FIRST WITH
SOME FOG POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND 1000 FT THIS
MORNING WITH FRACTURED STRATUS. END TIME OF PRECIPITATION MAY
VARY SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 09/24/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY L L M M M M L L L M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H L L M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M L L L L H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN MORNING VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING STARTING FRIDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page