806
FXUS61 KRLX 120111
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
811 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
POPS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAKE HOLD TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH FROM
MOISTURE FETCH OFF OF OF GREAT LAKES, AND WEAK PASSING WAVE.
2.) LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY PROVIDE SOAKING RAIN TO PARTS OF
THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO HAVE MOSTLY ENDED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW WILL TAKE HOLD FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AS
A FAVORABLE MOISTURE FETCH SETS UP OFF THE GREAT LAKES,
COMBINED WITH WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. QPF SHOULD BE OVERALL RELATIVELY LIGHT,
BUT WITH COLDER AIR SETTLING INTO THE AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW MOVES NORTH AND EAST AND FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY,
SLR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 18:1, WITH ANY SNOWFALL EASILY
ACCUMULATING. HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS SO THAT WE FALL JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE
A GENERAL 1 TO 4 INCHES CODED FOR THE NORTHEAST, WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS OF UP TO 5 ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT FLURRIES MAY LINGER
THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. ISSUED AN SPS PER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORS FOR THIS EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOCUS THIS WEEKEND SHIFTS TO A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN BOTH
TIMING AND OVERALL SOLUTION CONCERNING THE PATH AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS LOW BETWEEN THE MODELS, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS FAR OUT.
LATEST RUN OF THE GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD, WITH LESS PHASING WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. GFS RUNS WOULD KEEP
THE BULK OF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER, WHERE AS ECMWF WOULD
PROVIDE A MORE PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT
FOR THE AREA AS IT PHASES BETTER WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY,
AND TAKES A PATH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THERE IS ALSO
CONCERN ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ALTHOUGH DETAILS AND IMPACTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL, TRENDS TEND TO FAVOR A SCENARIO WHERE THE LOW BECOMES
BETTER PHASED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND TAKES THE MORE
NORTHERLY PATH AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS. AT THIS POINT, WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, HOWEVER, LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONTINUES TO REMAIN A CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD WITH LINGERING SNOW
PACK AND SATURATED SOILS, COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT THERE
COULD BE LINGERING ICE ON SOME WATERWAYS EVEN AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THREATS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AT PRESENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF
MVFR/VFR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOWER STRATUS FROM THE NORTH
ATTEMPTS TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS SOMEWHAT LOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT BKW/CRW/HTS, WHILE MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AT
CKB/EKN/PKB. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ADDITIONALLY,
ISOLD/SCT SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR AT CKB/EKN DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR VSBY. VFR THEN
CONTINUES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH JUST A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT CKB/EKN.
WNW SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 00Z
FRIDAY). BREEZY FLOW AT PRESENT (GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS) WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, BUT REMAIN GUSTY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BREEZES OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, HIGHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS MAY BE LESS WIDESPREAD
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 02/12/26
UTC 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
EST 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN, AND MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...GW
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