757  
FXUS61 KRLX 171823  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
223 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
VERY WARM AND QUIET WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD  
FRONT APPROACHES BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 203 PM TUESDAY...  
 
PRETTY STOUT CU FIELD EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE IS  
TRAPPED IN A THIN LAYER AROUND H8. CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE  
THICKER ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM  
ENE LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.  
IMPACTS, HOWEVER, SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  
 
CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH RATHER  
TRANQUIL NOCTURNAL WEATHER EXPECTED. AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG  
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN  
CWA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PROG TO BE THE WEAKEST.  
 
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. WEAK SFC  
TROUGHING MAY DEVELOP FROM NE TO SW, BISECTING THE CWA, BUT WILL  
HAVE MINIMAL INFLUENCES ON AREA WEATHER. IF ANYTHING, IT MAY  
PROMOTE A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ALONG WITH CONTINUED VERY  
WARM TEMPS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 155 PM TUESDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD,  
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED  
SHOWER CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DURING THE PERIOD FROM ANY  
PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE, BUT OVERALL CHANCES TOO LOW FOR A  
MENTION IN THE FORECAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 155 PM TUESDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT UPPER  
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK DOWN IN ADVANCE OF AN  
APPROACHING SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, FINALLY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY COULD BE AN ENHANCED FIRE  
DANGER DAY, WITH LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING  
FRONT, BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO WARRANT NOTHING MORE THAN A  
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT/NO RED FLAG WARNING ANTICIPATED AT  
THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 132 PM TUESDAY...  
 
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STATUS DECK OVER  
KPKB HAS BEEN STUBBORN ALL MORNING, BUT IS FINALLY ERODING WITH  
CIGS RISING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD ONLY PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER AT  
KPKB BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. OTHERWISE A DENSE CU FIELD SHOULD  
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE REGION. A FEW  
SHRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, BUT IMPACTS TO  
AERODROMES SHOULD BE LOW TO NIL.  
 
OVERNIGHT, CLEARING IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNSET AS CU FIELD  
DISSIPATES. AREAS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP LATER  
IN THE NIGHT ACROSS KEKN TO KPKB, BUT COVERAGE ELSEWHERE IS  
RATHER UNCERTAIN AS FLOW AT 925MB IS PROG TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO  
STRONG (10 TO 20 KT) FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG  
DEVELOPMENT...HOPEFULLY.  
 
VFR THEN EXPECTED BY MID MORNING WED WITH A MUCH DRIER  
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN EXPECTED, AS COMPARED TO TODAY.  
 
WEAK/VRB SFC WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BECOMING CALM AT  
TIMES OVERNIGHT.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE AND TIMING OF OVERNIGHT FOG MAY  
VARY.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M L L L  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...  
EARLY MORNING DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,  
ESPECIALLY AT KEKN.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RH/SL  
NEAR TERM...RH  
SHORT TERM...SL  
LONG TERM...SL  
AVIATION...RH  
 
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