259
FXUS61 KRLX 081052
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
552 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
LAST DAY OF DRIER WEATHER TODAY. ROUNDS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SNOW SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
ISSUED AN SPS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
TO COVER INSTANCES OF DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG. VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN A QUARTER OF A MILE AND THREE MILES ARE BEING REPORTED
AT MANY ASOS SITES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS
AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ARE AROUND FREEZING AND MODELS PROJECT
THEY WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE
COULD BE SOME SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND ELEVATED SURFACES AS A
RESULT OF ANY FREEZING FOG.
AS OF 128 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING REINFORCES DRIER WEATHER.
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED THIS MORNING UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. SATELLITE OBS SHOWS SOME HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING THROUGH, SO FOG DENSITY WILL LIKELY BOUNCE,
HOWEVER INSTANCES OF VISIBILITY A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLDER WITH UPPER 20S AND 30S EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST LATER THIS MORNING, ALLOWING A
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FILL IN BEHIND. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES AS A RESULT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
FOG WILL LIFT AND SCATTER GIVING WAY TO DRIER WEATHER FOR OUR
THURSDAY. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. EXPECT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
THE LOWLANDS BREAKING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE MID 40S AND UPPER 50S.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS A POTENT LOW
AND TROUGH ADVANCE FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS DRIER WEATHER COMES TO AN END.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 302 AM THURSDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST.
ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDES SOMEWHAT
OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER FROM THE GULF ACROSS OUR AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.25 INCHES, WHICH
IS MORE TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME SOAKER PATTERN. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS OUR VIRGINIA AND KENTUCKY COUNTIES, AS
WELL AS THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE BULK OF THIS (0.50-1.50 INCHES) FALLING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.
WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) PAINTED ACROSS THE AREAS
LISTED ABOVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BE EXPANDED. A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, SHOWS THAT OUR AREA IS MORE THAN PRIMED TO
HANDLE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS RAINFALL, WITH 6-HOUR FFG ABOVE
2 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOCALIZED TO MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IF TRAINING
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN SET UP.
RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST, BECOMING MORE OF A
DRIZZLE TO LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY AS A RESULT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL,
EVEN RATHER WARM BY SUBJECTIVE STANDARDS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. SOME MODELS PREDICT THAT OUR
WARMEST SITES MAY REACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES. SCATTERED 60S AND
50S ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, BUT HOW FAR INTO THE 60S WE CAN
GO WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS
TEMPERATURES WILL START DROPPING IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 320 AM THURSDAY...
CHANGE UP COMES SUNDAY WITH A VIGOROUS LOW AND TROUGH SWEEPING
THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY
MORNING CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AND RAIN TO CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN UPPER 20S AND 30S, RESULTING IN A FLASH FREEZE.
WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BLEND OF
MODELS WAS UNDERDONE WITH WIND GUSTS SO OPTED TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE WHICH HIGHLIGHTS ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS ACROSS OUR HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES IN POCAHONTAS,
RANDOLPH, AND WEBSTER COUNTIES. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (1-3") ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LESS ELSEWHERE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
TOO AS SOME SHALLOW DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH TO AMPLIFY LAKE-
ENHANCED MOISTURE. OTHERWISE, DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY FOR TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS POTENT SYSTEM.
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TURNS INTERESTING AS MODELS DIVERGE ON
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER. A DEEP TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH A LOW RIDING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS IS NORMALLY A SOLUTION THAT PROVIDES DECENT SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT MODELS DO NOT AGREE WITH THE GFS EQUATING
TO MORE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AND THE EURO GIVING US BARELY ANY.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 550 AM THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO OUR EAST, BUT DRIER WEATHER WILL BE
IN STORE FOR TODAY. AREAS OF DENSE FG AND FZFG WILL AFFECT
TERMINALS UNTIL ~14-15Z. IFR OR LOWER VIS IS POSSIBLE IN ANY FOG.
AFTER FOG DISSIPATES, EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SCT
TO BKN MID TO HIGH- LEVEL CLOUD DECK PASSING OVERHEAD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM SURFACE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT TO BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A JET ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT RESULTING IN SOME LLWS, WHICH HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE TAFS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY VARY AS
FOG COULD LINGER A FEW HOURS PAST WHEN IT IS FORECASTED TO LIFT
OUT.
FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST
TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 01/08/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EST 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 01/08/26
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L M M L H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page