476
FXUS61 KRLX 221440
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
940 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY TODAY. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TURNING MILD WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 940 AM MONDAY...
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION A
BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED SO INCREASED SKY COVER
ACCORDINGLY.
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* DRY TODAY, PRECIPITATION RETURNS TONIGHT.
* PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY DESPITE A GRADUAL
EASTWARD SHIFT IN HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. CLOUDS
START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATER TODAY,
THEN CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
FRONT LIFTS PAST OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS
RAIN; HOWEVER, COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS COULD
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN STARTING LATE TONIGHT. THE
DURATION OF THIS FREEZING RAIN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY WARM AIR ADVECTION BUOYS TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN ICE AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL
IMPACTS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO FOREGO ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES, WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO REASSESS THE NEED FOR AN
ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
KEY POINT:
* RAIN EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS.
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY,
THEN PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AS THE SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
DEPART LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD
AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE THEN
REINTRODUCES CHANCES FOR RAIN AS IT BRINGS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
KEY POINT:
* REMAINING ACTIVE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH ONE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND
THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM PROJECTED TO USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 515 AM MONDAY...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY INCREASING AHEAD OF A FRONT.
CEILINGS BEGIN LOWERING TOWARDS MVFR AS THE FRONT GLIDES NORTH,
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME BREEZY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF LLWS COULD ALSO OCCUR BEFORE GUSTS BEGIN
TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET TIME OF PRECIPITATION MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST. LLWS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EST 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY MORNING, AND THEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...ABE/20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20
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