214
FXUS61 KRLX 190010
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
710 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN SE OH AND GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE OH RIVER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
- 2) LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WV/SW VA AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WV.
- 3) A PATTERN SHIFT TO COLDER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LAKE-EFFECT MOISTURE FLOWS INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND
APPALACHIANS, AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CROSSES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SE OH, NE KY,
AND GENERALLY AREAS NEAR/ALONG THE OH RIVER. THERE COULD EVEN BE
A STRONGER STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL.
TIMING OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME IN TWO TIME FRAMES. THE
FIRST TIME FRAME WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THEW REGION THURSDAY AND THE SECOND WITH THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA,
WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MAIN THREATS ARE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND A
LOW(2%) TORNADO RISK FOR SE OH, NE KY, AND AREAS ALONG THE OH
RIVER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING WHERE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS/T'STORMS SETUP. ANY RISK IS
LOW, BUT STILL WORTH MENTIONING GIVEN THE NEARLY SATURATED TO
SATURATED SOILS IN LOCALES, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HREF PAINTS MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL WV AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WV
INTO SW VA WITH PROBABILITIES OF 50-80% OF SEEING GRATER THAN
0.5" OF RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE PROBABILITIES ARE
LOWER FOR 1" OF RAIN, THEY ARE STILL IN THE 10-30% RANGE. THESE
AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY IF RATES ARE HIGH, COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR
ISSUES. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT JOG WEST/NORTH WITH THE WEEKEND
STORM SYSTEM (SAT INTO SUNDAY), ENSEMBLES/GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
BULK OF PRECIP JUST OUTSIDE OF THE AREA. THERE STILL COULD BE
SOME RAIN/SNOW FOR SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA, SW VA, AND
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS, BUT ANY AMOUNTS WITH THE STORM SYSTEM
WOULD BE LIGHT AS OF NOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF THERE
ARE ANY TRENDS IN GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST AN INCREASE RISKED OF
WINTRY PRECIP.
AS FOR THE SECOND PORTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, REMAINS ON TRACK. PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND SOME FOOTHILL LOCATIONS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWLANDS
AT THIS TIME WOULD BE SPOTTY AND ISOLATED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING, BUT WILL BE EXITING EAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BKW, EKN, AND CRW WILL BE THE MOST
IMPACTED SITES FROM THESE SHOWERS. GUST SW'RLY WINDS WILL TAPER
DOWN SOME AFTER ~00Z WITH A FEW SITES GOING CALM OR VERY LIGHT.
EXPECTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO IMPACT MANY SITES TONIGHT WITH
MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VIS IN THE FORECAST.
LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS ALSO RETURNING TOMORROW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA AND THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS/MOUNTAINS. LEFT VCTS OUT FOR NOW SINCE CHANCES ARE
LOW AND LOCATIONS IMPACTED ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TONIGHT MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
VCTS TOMORROW MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H H M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H M H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H M H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES, AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IFR POSSIBLE
IN SNOW SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRM
AVIATION...LTC
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