972
FXUS61 KRLX 111731
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1231 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOSTLY DRY WARM FRONT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN AND BRINGS DRY WEATHER INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM TUESDAY...
WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY WAS CAUSING THE SNOW TO END AND CLOUDS
TO ERODE. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT BRINGING MORE CLOUDS. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED
HOWEVER, SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT, MAINLY JUST A
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IF ANYTHING.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT THIS EVENING, ONLY TO PICK BACK UP
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH IN
THE LOWLANDS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND REMAINING ON
THURSDAY. A STRONG 850 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED, SO
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM NOTICEABLY COMPARED TO
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY, PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS VARY SOME ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR TO
EXPECT BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND ON
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1130 AM TUESDAY...
MVFR CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL BECOME
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS COULD REFORM
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT THIS EVENING, ONLY TO PICK BACK UP
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH IN
THE LOWLANDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR THIS
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...RPY
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