318
FXUS61 KRLX 061722
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
122 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AT 118 PM... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT, BUT HAIL AND A TORNADO ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEW WEEK WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES, A 500-MB SHORTWAVE,
AND BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO, WHERE THE LARGEST AMOUNTS OF FORCING
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY STRONG
AGREEMENT WITH A ZONE OF 1,000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A ZONE OF 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO TRACK EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAN BE
SEEN TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA. IT'S HOLDING
TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL AS IT TRACKS EAST, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (1 PM TO 5 PM). THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS (CAMS) SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE SAME
AREAS THIS EVENING, BETWEEN 7 PM AND 10 PM.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY PLACES NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 1.80 INCHES
TODAY IN THESE AREAS, AND IF MULTIPLE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD INTO THE NEW WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEGINNING SUNDAY, A VERY
JUICY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOWER 70S. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAT, HUMIDITY, AND AMPLE FORCING WILL TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
EACH DAY. THE AIR WILL FEEL SUMMERLIKE ALL WEEK WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. DEW POINTS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, KEEPING THE AIR FEELING VERY
HUMID. THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY, IN COMBINATION WITH ENERGY ALOFT,
WILL TRIGGER DIURNAL ACTIVITY EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORMS IN OHIO
ARE ADVANCING EASTWARD, AND MAY IMPACT KPKB, KCKB, AND KEKN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS HAVE
BEEN ADDED WHERE APPROPRIATE. ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN BRIEFLY AND
TEMPORARILY CAUSE VARIABLE WIND GUSTS AND IFR RESTRICTIONS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, SO THESE RESTRICTIONS WERE NOT
INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT KPKB, KCKB, AND KEKN OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAS INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY. FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND
LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
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