852
FXUS61 KRLX 311700
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
100 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES SUPPORT CHANCES OF SHOWERS, AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AT TIMES THIS WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND.
2) AREAS OF VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP AND IMPACT SOME EARLY
MORNING COMMUTERS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INITIALLY CONSISTS OF A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST US AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE TRAVELING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
PROMPTS LOW-END CHANCES (15 TO 30 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AS IT GRAZES
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VA, WHILE
DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAY DEVELOP AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY. THIS TIME,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PROJECTED TO BE HIGHEST ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS.
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS, RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING RECEDES AND MOISTURE INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE PRESENT TO LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CLEARER SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT FLOW THEN PROVIDE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF NIGHTS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DURING THIS TIME, SOME EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS COULD BE AFFECTED
BY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH A LITTLE FOG OR STRATUS COULD TRY TO FORM AT EKN
OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE ALSO BRINGS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS OCCURRING AT A TERMINAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO FORGO MENTION
IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD CALM OVERNIGHT, THEN FLOW
BECOMES LIGHT AND NORTHERLY ON MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND DURATION OF FOG MAY VARY FROM
THE FORECAST. A RAIN SHOWER OR TWO COULD REACH HTS OR BKW
OVERNIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH MID-
WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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