144
FXUS61 KRLX 032329
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
729 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
LATEST FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS
ISSUANCES. THE DAY 2 AND 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS FROM SPC
DENOTING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY'S THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HOLDS FIRM
WITH A SLIGHT RISK EACH DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SUPPRESSED STARTING TODAY, OPENING THE
DOOR FOR A PARADE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
2. THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE MARCHES INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100 TO 105.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE COUNTRY SHOWS RAPID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FIRING OFF ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REMAINS NESTLED UNDER ONE MORE DAY OF
DECAYING SUBSIDENCE FROM AN ERODING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELDS AT THE TIME OF WRITING SHOWED NO
INDICATION OF FURTHER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT, MOST LIKELY SPARED
BY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NOT BECOMING BREACHED YET TODAY.
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
ATTEMPTING TO SPARK ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWN INTO THE
GREENBRIER VALLEY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT SHOULD THEN DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ACTIVE
WEATHER INFILTRATES BACK INTO THE REGION. FIRST AREA OF
CONTENTION WILL BE FROM LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES SPILLING
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. OUTFLOW DRIVEN
STORMS MAY STEER INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL LOWLANDS SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT, WITH FURTHER WEAKENING ANTICIPATED AS THEY REACH
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL THEN START OFF AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW
DAYS, HOT AND HUMID, BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT FIRES UP QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TIMING
OF STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON UPSTREAM, WITH CUMULUS FORMATION QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY STORM EVOLUTION AROUND 1 TO 2 PM. DRY AIR ALOFT
FESTERING OVER THE REGION WILL BOLSTER DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
ANY STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM IN THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK STEERING
FLOW ALOFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE SLOW MOVING AND HEAVY
CONVECTION, LEADING TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN THE EVENT OF REPETITIVE AND TRAINING ACTIVITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DESPITE THE EROSION OF THE DOMINATING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY MARCHES INTO ANOTHER DAY SATURDAY WITH
FORECAST HIGHS REACHING THE 90S AND RESULTING HEAT INDICES INTO
THE 100S. WHILE UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND CLOUD COVERAGE ON SATURDAY, HEAT RISKS
WILL REMAIN PLAUSIBLE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY AS MUGGY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST. THEREFORE, THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORIES THAT HAVE BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS WILL STRETCH INTO THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
HEAT WAVE BREAKS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH THE DEPARTURE AND EROSION OF
THE RIDGE, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL HOVER IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S THROUGH THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS, WITH VALLEY FOG SET TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY. IFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FOG
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPORARY LIFR POSSIBLE, BEFORE FOG
ERODES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED -SHRA MAY AFFECT KHTS
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL. A CU FIELD
WILL BEGIN TO BUBBLE BY THE LATE-MORNING HOURS SATURDAY, WITH AN
EXPECTATION FOR SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. PROB30
GROUPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT ALL TAF SITES, ALTHOUGH THE TIMES
WERE ADJUSTED TO START IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ACCOMPANY TSTMS SATURDAY, WITH STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE AT THE
SURFACE. VFR WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TONIGHT MAY BE MORE DENSE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
TSTM POTENTIAL SHORTLY AFTER THE END THIS TAF PERIOD IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>031.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ032>034-039-040-
515-517-519-521-525.
OH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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