635  
FXUS61 KRLX 221846  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
246 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, TAKING SHOWERS  
AND STORMS WITH IT. COOLER, DRIER WEATHER TO FOLLOW THIS WEEK.  
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY.  
 
COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,  
WILL CROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, TAKING THE  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.  
 
CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF RAIN HAS LIMITED HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE FORECAST AREA EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. FARTHER WEST, LESS  
RAIN, AND BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST, HAS ALLOWED SOME HEATING  
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH  
WERE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR  
HEATING AHEAD OF THIS LINE WAS LIMITED, AND SO IS THE POTENTIAL  
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE STORMS WILL ONLY WEAKEN FURTHER EAST OF  
THE OHIO RIVER AS THEY ENTER MORE STABLE AIR, AND THEN FURTHER  
STILL AS THEY TREK EAST AFTER SUNSET.  
 
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL  
ALLOW FOR INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, WITH DUAL POL RAINFALL RATES  
OF 1 TO 2 1/2 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY TO INCREASE A BIT. THIS  
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE BRIEF, BUT ANY REPETITION OF DOWNPOURS,  
ESPECIALLY OVER POCKETS HIT HARD EARLIER, MAY CAUSE FLASH  
FLOODING, AND THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE EAST OF THE OHIO  
RIVER, ENDING WEST TO EAST IN TWO SEGMENTS AS THE FRONT CROSSES  
TONIGHT.  
 
STRATUS IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST  
OF THE OHIO RIVER IF NOT MAINLY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS,  
MODELS SHOW LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR FARTHER WEST TONIGHT, ONCE  
THE FRONT IS PAST. STRATUS WILL LIFT INTO STRATOCU AND MORNING  
CU TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE MIXING INTO A SCATTERED CU FIELD  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BECOMES  
ESTABLISHED.  
 
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS CLOSE TO THE NAM AND A SHORT TERM  
BLEND, AND NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PRECIOUS FORECAST. HAVE LOWS  
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT, AND THEN HIGHS BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY, A  
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER DAY ON TAP.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...  
 
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL AID IN  
DEAMPLIFYING THE DEEP TROUGH RESIDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS  
THIS WEEK. DURING WHICH TIME, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NESTLE  
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAIN  
POSITION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
NORTHERLY FLOW BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL INVITE COOLER  
AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA, A MUCH NEEDED COOL DOWN COMPARED  
TO LAST WEEK'S EXTREME HEAT. EXPECT HIGHS TO LEVEL OUT IN THE  
LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND THE LOW 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS ON  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY RISING INTO THE MID- TO  
UPPER-80S/MID 70S ON FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BEGINS TO  
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD.  
 
NON-ZERO PRECIP CHANCES EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY  
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE LOITERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,  
DIURNAL HEATING, AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS EACH AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...  
 
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AS THE MIGHTY RIDGE OUT WEST BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS FOR  
GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE MIDST OF CENTRAL  
APPALACHIA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS WEEKEND, WITH STILL A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR  
RAIN AND SHOWERS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST  
THIS FAIRLY DRY PATTERN PERSISTING UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE LONG  
TERM PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...  
 
PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT TIMES GIVE WAY TO VFR THIS  
AFTERNOON IN A MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA, AHEAD OF A COLD  
FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY. AREAS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE MVFR TO BRIEF  
IFR VISIBILITY.  
 
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY  
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY  
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER, AT PKB 19Z-21Z, HTS 20-22Z, CKB 21-23Z,  
AND CRW AND EKN 22Z-00Z TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS LIKELY  
TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON BKW, AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES THERE LATER  
TONIGHT.  
 
AREAS OF POST RAIN FOG TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY MVFR, AS DRIER  
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SOME IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
IFR STRATUS WILL FORM BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION ONCE THE FRONT  
PASSES TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, AND THEN  
LIFT TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE FRONTAL INVERSION DEEPENS WITH THE  
HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL CLEAR THE WAY FOR A VFR  
AFTERNOON TUESDAY.  
 
LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHWEST BEHIND  
THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AS LIGHT TO MODERATE  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOME LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST ALOFT  
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN  
WILL LIKELY REQUIRE AMDS INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG  
AND STRATUS AND STRATOCU MAY VARY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN VFR  
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05  
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01  
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H M M M M H H H M H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H L H H H M M H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H L L M H  
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H M H H H H H M  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H M M H  
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M H H H H H  
 
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...  
IFR POSSIBLE WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR  
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ024>026-033-  
034-515>526.  
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-  
013>020-027>032-039-040.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105.  
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...26/TRM/SL  
NEAR TERM...TRM  
SHORT TERM...MEK  
LONG TERM...MEK  
AVIATION...TRM  
 
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