025
FXUS61 KRLX 091840
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
140 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY, WITH UPSLOPE SNOW
BEHIND THE FRONT. A CLIPPER FRIDAY WITH SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM
OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGS IN ARCTIC AIR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, CAUSING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWLANDS TO RISE LATER
TONIGHT ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER DURING
THE EVENING HOURS, WITH SOME RAIN ARRIVING FROM THE WEST LATER
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOME RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FOR MOST AREAS, WHILE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SNOW.
WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW, A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
MOUNTAINS STARTING AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE A BREAK
FROM BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE AN UPSLOPE SNOW
EVENT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO SET BACK IN FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WEST VIRGINA NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WHEN THE UPSLOPE SNOW BEGINS TO
TAPER OFF.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...
A STRONG CLIPPER WILL EFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, PROVIDING WINTRY WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO CREATE A MESSY COMMUTE FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
MODELS VARY ON THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER, INCLUDING THE
INTENSITY OF THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...
ANY REMAINING MVFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
CENTRAL OHIO WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SNOW AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOW, A BLIZZARD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS STARTING AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR SOME SITES
MAY VARY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SNOW.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR WVZ522-523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...RPY
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