945
FXUS61 KRLX 111840
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
140 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS COME TO AN END TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WIND GUSTS
AMID BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. DRY TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. A
MIDWEEK SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
FOR REMAINING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
* WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST POCAHONTAS AND SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH
COUNTIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH.
* HIGH PRESSURE ADVERTISES DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
RADAR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT PASSING SNOW SHOWERS GROWING
MORE CONFINED TO THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
AFTER A MORNING OF SNOW SQUALLS ENCOMPASSING THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST AREA, MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS OUR SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER
IS NOW ALIGNED ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES CUT OFF DUE TO WIND FLOW
BACKING OUT OF THE WEST TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES REMAINS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT DRAPED THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE UP STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS ANTICIPATED TO EASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES. GUSTS OF UP TO 55MPH ARE STILL FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUE RECORDED SO FAR TODAY OF AROUND
36MPH UP NEAR SNOWSHOE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1 AM TONIGHT TO CAPTURE THE TIMEFRAME UNTIL THESE HOWLING WINDS
BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL OBTAIN
ENOUGH INFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO ENFORCE THE RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER. AFTER SQUEEZING OUT SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING,
WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL RULE THE ROOST FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOURAGE DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE
A SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST, SUNSHINE AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY, WITH MANY SPOTS IN
THE LOWLANDS BRANCHING OUT INTO THE LOW 50S.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ENCROACHES TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL
REINTRODUCE PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF RAIN, TO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES BEFORE SAILING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES WILL SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSPIRING WITH
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE MIDWEEK PRECIPITATION
IN THE LOWLANDS WILL FALL AS RAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...
KEY POINT:
* RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS.
THE FORECAST PERIOD OPENS UP WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONING OVER TO A WINTRY WEATHER MIX LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW FOR THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OVERHEAD AROUND THIS TIME WILL AMPLIFY SHOWER
POTENTIAL AND ALREADY SEE A DECENT SIGNAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO THURSDAY. WHILE SOME
AGREEMENT IS APPEARING AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS FOR THIS SET UP,
STILL THINK FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES WILL HELP SOLIDIFY TIMING
AND OVERALL SNOW AMOUNT MESSAGING, BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN
HIGHLIGHTING THIS NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTER WEATHER.
SHOWER CHANCES WRAP UP BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER THE
GUISE OF TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 PM SUNDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DWINDLING THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE SLIPS BY TO THE NORTHWEST. CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL
REMAIN PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT ARRIVES FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. SURFACE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LAST BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS PERUSE OUR AIRSPACE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE CONTAINED TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS
EVENING UNTIL ITS EVENTUAL CONCLUSION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL.
BREEZY TO STRONG WIND GUSTS FLOURISH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
WERE INCLUDED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN ANY PASSING SNOW SHOWER. SURFACE WINDS
TAPER DOWN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY IN AND
OUT OF SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EST 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M L M H H M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ520-522-
523-526.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...05
NEAR TERM...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...05
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