106
FXUS61 KRLX 242314
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
714 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RIVER VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
- 2) THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATE THURSDAY, WITH BETTER PROSPECTS FOR STORMS
ARRIVING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG.
- 3) STORM CHANCES WANE SUNDAY, WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE REMAINING HUMID.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A POSITIVELY-TILTED, SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF A
BELT OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ADVECTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN OH RIVER
VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT REMAINED CONFLUENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW PIVOTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
WITH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS THE
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CU FIELD BUBBLING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA, THE
EXCEPTION BEING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE THE SKY WAS
CLEAR. AT THE SURFACE, AN ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL WV,
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS; AND THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL
MEANDER IN THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OFF
TO THE EAST AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CU WILL
DISSIPATE FOLLOWING THE CESSATION OF VERTICAL MIXING, AND THE
COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL FOSTER ANOTHER BOUT
OF RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY. IT APPEARS
THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE
RECENT EPISODE OF HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK. VISIBILITIES OF
LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER MILE WILL ACCOMPANY THE VALLEY FOG. FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY, OR BY 8 AM EDT, SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY, WITH
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCALES
SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO EJECT OVER THE NIAGARA
ESCARPMENT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE RUST BELT AND TOWARDS THE CWA, WITH SURFACE
WINDS VEERING SOUTHWESTWARD AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN OH RIVER VALLEY. WARMER AND MUGGIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY, AS DEWPOINTS RISE
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AMIDST TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 80S. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO BUBBLE
AROUND 16Z, WITH CU EXPECTED TO BECOME CONGESTED AND AGITATED BY THE
LATE-AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BELT OF AMPLIFIED FLOW
EJECTS OVER THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. DEEP- AND CLOUD-LAYER FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACCORDINGLY, WITH EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES APPROACHING 50
KT, RESULTING IN THE ADVECTION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT WILL
FACILITATE MODERATE THERMAL INSTABILITY, WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1,500-2,000 J/KG. HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER
WILL KEEP LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO MOIST-ADIABATIC, BUT THE EFFECTS OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A BROKEN LINE
OF STORMS ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG TO PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 50-60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL (BELOW
QUARTER SIZE) WITH THE DEEPEST CORES. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS, AND WITH PWATS CLIMBING TOWARDS THE 99TH
PERCENTILE, EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL A LOCALIZED RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOW INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS IS ALONG A LINE FROM CARTER CAVES STATE PARK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CLARKSBURG, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING THAT
WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE STALLING FRONT.
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AREA-WIDE FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR, ALTHOUGH ITS
POSITION MAY BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH OWING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE REINFORCEMENT. REGARDLESS, THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED
IN PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER WEST, A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BELT OF AMPLIFIED FLOW IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT
OVER OH RIVER VALLEY IN CONGRUENCE WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION TO
THE 300 MB JET STREAK. THE RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAINTAINED AMIDST WEAKER STEERING FLOW WHICH WILL BE ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. A BETTER FOCUS FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
EJECTS OVER THE REGION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL-PARALLEL
MOVEMENT OF STORMS AMIDST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS. A STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER, BUT THE RISK IS TOP-HEAVY
TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS BECOME MURKY BY SATURDAY DUE TO
THE RELATED MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF THE
STALLED FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD BENEATH A TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT WILL FACILITATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH STORMS FINALLY VACATING THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HOTTER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO LOWER-MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE 70 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE
FORECAST IS OFFICIALLY DRY DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK, A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE CENTER OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE MIDDLE MS RIVER
VALLEY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
OTHER THAN PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR VALLEY FOG IN DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS, GENERALLY 08Z TO 12Z, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED.
AFTER 20Z THURSDAY, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF SE OHIO AND THE MID-OHIO VALLEY REGION, POSSIBLY
AFFECTING SITE KPKB, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
POINT TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/25/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SINCAVAGE
AVIATION...SL
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