734
FXUS61 KRLX 181259
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
859 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, ALLOWING THE FREEZE WARNING TO END AT
THE TOP OF THE HOUR.
635 AM UPDATE...
AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED THIS
MORNING, PRIMARILY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WITH STEAM FOG GIVEN A
SIGNIFICANT AIR/WATER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. HAVE ISSUED A SPS
UNTIL 930 AM TO HIGHLIGHT THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS ALL OF
OUR NE KY AND SW VA ZONES, ALONG WITH MOST OF OUR WV ZONES.
AS OF 441 AM SUNDAY...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
HAD TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY TO REPRESENT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS SINCE CENTRAL GUIDANCE WAS
RUNNING TOO WARM FOR THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD FREEZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING COULD END THE
GROWING SEASON. IF NOT, MORE FROST/FREEZE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS, THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
2) A HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKING PATTERN DOMINATES THE NEW WEEK
PROMOTING DRY WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM THIS MORNING. WITH
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH CALM
SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES ARE PROGRESSIVELY
DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING ALREADY IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND SOON THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD FOLLOW. MOST PLACES SHOULD
SEE FREEZING OR BELOW WHICH SHOULD END THE GROWING SEASON FOR
US WHICH WOULD END ISSUING FUTURE PRODUCTS FOR FROST/FREEZE.
HOWEVER, AFTER COLLABORATION WILL NEIGHBORING OFFICES, THE DAY
SHIFT WILL HAVE TO REASSESS WHICH AREAS TO BE TAKEN OUT OF THE
GROWING SEASON AFTER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER
GUIDANCE WHETHER ANY FUTURE HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED HERE ON OUT
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS AS TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER THAN NORMAL. BY MIDWEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK
TO AROUND SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TRUE FOR THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG OMEGA TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN TAKES HOLD STARTING THE NEW
WORK WEEK AND LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES, LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT FOR THE FORECAST.
BESIDES SOME FREEZE OR FROST THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS, THE ONLY
OTHER HAZARD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE VALLEY FOG EACH
MORNING THROUGH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY CALM SURFACE FLOW. OUTSIDE
SOME VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING VFR WILL DOMINATE ONCE IT LIFTS BY
13Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITONS TO PREVAIL UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE VALLEY FOG RETURNS MONDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG RESTRICTIONS MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
CRW CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L L H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05/GW/JZ
AVIATION...JZ
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