613
FXUS61 KRLX 230601
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
201 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE WEAKENED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLIER
SUNDAY EVENING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, AND NOW RADAR TRENDS
ARE FOCUSED ON SUB-SEVERE WINDS THAT MAY CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE,
DECLINING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT WILL YIELD A COOLER AND DRIER
DAY MONDAY AMID BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING, WITH STRONG BURSTS OF WIND AND WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. PLUNGING
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
- 2) INCREASED FIRE WEATHER RISK BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AMID MINIMUM RH VALUES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S/30S.
- 3) ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK, WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT ITSELF WAS NOTED ON RADAR AND NIGHTTIME
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER TONIGHT, BUT HAS QUICKLY BEEN COVERED
BY ANVIL BLOW OFF ALOFT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE FRONT HAVE ALREADY DROPPED 15 TO 20 DEGREES, AND A SHARP
DECLINE WILL REMAIN THE TREND OVERNIGHT INTO LATER ON THIS
MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN THE DAY TODAY AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK, WHILE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS PROGGED TO HAVE MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REBOUND INTO THE 40S/50S THIS AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVERNIGHT, THE SEVERITY OF
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED AS THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TRACKS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ON THE UPWARDS OF 40 TO 50
MILES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO VENTURE THROUGH THE AREA AS
STORMS CATCH UP TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH RAIN FOLLOWING
SUIT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS CREPT INTO
SOUTHEAST OHIO AT THE TIME OF WRITING, AND FURTHER CLEARING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS WILL THEN WRAP UP LATER ON ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY SEE WET FLAKES
MIXING INTO LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AMID SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING. ANY LINGERING SHOWER
SQUEEZING OUT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO WRAP UP
ALTOGETHER BY THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER RISK BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR ADVECTION AMID HIGH PRESSURE YIELDS LOWERED
DEW POINTS AND MINRH VALUES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE PROGGED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S AND 30S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY,
BEFORE MOISTURE RIDES FROM THE SOUTH ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE
WON'T BE MUCH OF A WIND COMPONENT TO CAPITALIZE ON WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED OVERHEAD, AND BUDDING TREES AND
VEGETATION SHOULD ALSO HELP REDUCE THE OVERALL RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
RENEWED PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL TRENDS
HINT AT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST
EVENING, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY WILL
ONCE AGAIN SERVE UP AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FROPA
CONDUCIVE FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, BUT TIMING OF
STORMS POST-SUNSET WILL YIELD A WEAKENING TREND SOMEWHERE
UPSTREAM OR RIGHT OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. STILL A BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK FOR THIS TO BE NOTED IN THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER'S SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS, BUT
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES PLUNGE DOWN INTO THE
30S/40S FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT TO CONTINUE FALLING AS RAIN, BUT MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ROUND OUT THE EVENT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS PLUNGE DOWN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE BOARD.
ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME,
ADVERTISING PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH OUR AIRSPACE EARLY THIS
MORNING IS SET TO BRING LOWERED CEILINGS AND LATE NIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AT THE TIME OF WRITING, THE FRONT
WAS ANALYZED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A WEAKENING LINE
OF STORMS PUSHING SOUTH AND EASTWARD. UPSTREAM IN OHIO AND
INDIANA, CEILINGS WERE NOTED TO HAVE DROPPED TO IFR CONDITIONS
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE FRONT MAKES FORWARD
PROGRESS THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FURTHER EASTWARD.
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THESE IFR CEILINGS ARRIVE TO OUR WESTERN
TERMINALS AROUND 9Z THIS MORNING AND REACHING THE MOUNTAINS
CLOSER TO 12Z. A SLIGHT RISE BACK INTO MVFR IS PROGGED MONDAY
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST, BUT MAY HOLD ONTO IFR THRESHOLDS
ALONG THE MOUNTAIN FOR LONGER BASED ON LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO YIELD IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR OUR
AIRSPACE, WITH MANY TERMINALS RETURNING TO VFR BY THE CONCLUDING
HOURS OF THE VALID ZULU DAY. SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL
COMPRESS ALONG THE NORTHEAST WV MOUNTAINS BEFORE RISING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.
POST-FRONTAL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE HIGH
EASES GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT. SURFACE GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO
20KTS WERE INCLUDED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR TODAY, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS NEARING 35KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST. TIMING OF IFR CEILINGS MAY ALSO VARY
MONDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 03/23/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M H M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H L L M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H M M M H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H L H L H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H M H M H M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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