075
FXUS61 KRLX 220813
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
413 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WORST OF THE WEATHER IS OVER AND THE FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER, FLOODING, AND
STREAM AND RIVER RISES, CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA, WITH SOME OF THE SMALLER STEMS ALREADY IN
FLOOD AND SOME LARGER STEMS WARNED ON WHERE THERE ARE GAUGES
FORECAST TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.
QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK,
BUT THEN THE WEATHER TURNS MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND, AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, AS
MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT PATTERN IN WHICH CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THE WORST OF THE WEATHER IS OVER, BUT FLOODING CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- 2) CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SAILING INTO THE AREA BENEATH
MID/UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES COOLER AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK.
- 3) THE WEATHER TURNS ACTIVE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND, AND ESPECIALLY
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT, WHEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
BENEATH MID/UPPER-LEVELNORTHWEST FLOW MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING BENEATH A MID/UPPER-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY, THE WORST OF THE WEATHER IS OVER, THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCHES WERE CANCELED OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, AND
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
HOWEVER, FLOODING, AND STREAM AND RIVER RISES, CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA, WITH SOME OF THE
SMALLER STEMS ALREADY IN FLOOD, AND THREE LARGER STEMS WARNED
ON WHERE THERE ARE GAUGES FORECAST TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. THE
THREE LARGER STEMS WERE THE WEST FORK, TYGART AND BUCHANAN. OF
NOTE, MAJOR FLOODING WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AT BUCKHANNON ON THE
BUCKHANNON, AND WAS FORECAST TO OCCUR AT PHILIPPI ON THE TYGART
VALLEY AND CLARKSBURG ON THE WEST FORK, THIS AFTERNOON.
ON THE SEVERE END, STORM SURVEYS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR
POSSIBLE TORNADIC DAMAGE TUESDAY.
SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING, EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
TO LINGER IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TODAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH A MORE COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON AS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR CAPS LOWLAND TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BENEATH MID/UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
50S AREA-WIDE THURSDAY MORNING, AND MAY FALL JUST SHY OF 80 FOR
HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN START A SLOW MODERATING TREND THURSDAY NIGH AND FRIDAY.
RIVER VALLEY FOG, SOME DENSE, CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST
PERSIST, A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SHOWERS, AND AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, TO AREAS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS,
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEN, A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT AND DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN
MAY GET US CLOSER TO THE RING OF FIRE, OR HIGHER HEIGHT EDGE OF
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW, IN WHICH CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES MAY SAIL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SLIGHT SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST AND
REAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN MAY ALLOW A COLD TO CROSS BY
MIDWEEK, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO AT LEAST NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND, AND THEN GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON TEMPERATURES DURING THE
NEXT WORK WEEK, WHICH COULD CERTAINLY BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS
MAY IMPACT EKN OR BKW EARLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE MOVING OUT BY
DAWN, AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL LOWER TO IFR STRATUS AT LEAST IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE LIFTING DURING THE
LATE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS, INTO A CUMULUS FIELD THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WITH A
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, AND THE STRATOCU,
THE IFR FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS 09-12Z THIS MORNING.
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
THEN LIGHT NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD
THE AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST LATER THIS MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG AND/OR STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING MAY
BE WORSE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, OR OTHERWISE VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 07/22/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L M M M H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H L L L M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H L M H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H M H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L M M L M H H H H M
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR TO VLIFR VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TRM
AVIATION...TRM
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