990
FXUS61 KRLX 301713
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
113 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. BUILDING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA, WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION, HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK, AS MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSS THE
AREA. CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST PER THE BLEND OF MODELS FOR MOST DAYS THIS WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY DURING THE PERIOD CONCERNS INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AS WE PROGRESS INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S FOR MUCH OF
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S AT TIMES.
HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND A BREAK IN THE OPPRESSIVE
HEAT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 23Z, WITH NO RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE, PATCHY IFR OR WORSE VALLEY FOG, GENERALLY 06Z THROUGH
12Z IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS, WITH A RETURN OF VFR WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND INTENSITY OF FOG
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG EACH
MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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