323
FXUS61 KRLX 281755
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REASONING. DRY WEATHER
AND VALLEY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
2.) DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY.
3.) UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
INITIALLY MODEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
COMBINING THESE LIGHT WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LINGERING WET
SOIL CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINFALL, ROBUST RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL ESTABLISH STEEP VALLEY INVERSIONS,
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. FOG IS LIKELY TO BE
MOST EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND IN VALLEYS SUBJECT TO
COLD AIR DRAINAGE AWAY. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING EACH
DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
CONTINENTAL US, WITH A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST US
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
ENFORCE A DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK,
MOISTURE-STARVED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.
AHEAD OF THIS, FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, AND UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY, A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD BREEZY
CONDITIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL TAP INTO FLOW JUST ALOFT,
RESULTING IN SURFACE GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO AS ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES
REVEAL A PRONOUNCED LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX, ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE. A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE, SETTING THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING ARE BROADLY
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
HOWEVER, IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SUBJECT
TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET. TYPICAL MODEL
UNDER-REPRESENTATION OF COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
IN FAVORED HOLLOWS. DESPITE THE CHILL, THE FORMATION OF VALLEY
FOG SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FROST DEVELOPMENT FOR THOSE COLDEST SPOTS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR
FRONT AND ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY COULD INTERACT WITH
THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SITUATED OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THIS INTERACTION MIGHT YIELD ISOLATED, LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COALFIELDS, BUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. OTHERWISE, BENIGN WEATHER
CONTINUES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF NOCTURNAL VALLEY FOG. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DECOUPLE UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIVER VALLEY
FOG, RESULTING IN PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS AT AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z FRIDAY. FOG WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY BY 13Z FRIDAY MORNING,
GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ADDITIONAL FOG MAY FORM OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS IF WINDS DECOUPLE QUICKLY ENOUGH TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING IN FOG THROUGH SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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