207
FXUS61 KRLX 030635
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
235 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS LINGER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, THEN COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS SET IN FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK. EARLY MORNING FROST
MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE FRONT HAS ALREADY DEPARTED THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE
LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUSTAIN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND AT
LEAST LOW-END CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN COALFIELDS.
ANOTHER FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA AND PROPELS THE STALLED FRONT
OUT TO SEA WHILE THE PARENT LOW TRAVELS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THEN SETS IN FOR THE WORK WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT.
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM FLOW WILL RESULT IN
RATHER CHILLY NIGHTS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
TEMPERATURES THEN TREND MILDER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A
FRONT DEPARTS THE AREA, THOUGH SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN COALFIELDS THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT, THOUGH EXTENT IS LIKELY TO BE CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OVERNIGHT.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 12KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE DAY, THEN TURN CALM TO LIGHT AFTER 00Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED
TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 10/03/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L H H H H H M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M L L M H H H H M H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H M M M M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG SUNDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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