986
FXUS61 KRLX 100622
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) REMAINING UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ISOLATED STORMS
COULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
2) QUIETER TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK, UNCERTAIN THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TODAY WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER LAKE ERIE,
NORTHERN OHIO, AND NEW YORK. THIS FRONT IS PROJECTED TO START
DRIFTING SOUTH OVERNIGHT, THEN A LOW MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND PROPELS THE FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER, BOTH THE FRONT AND THE LOW MEANDER AWAY FROM THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING
THE DAY TODAY, AS WELL AS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR, COURTESY OF A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2
INCHES. SOILS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING
AS NEW ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION IMPACT LOCATIONS THAT HAVE
ALREADY SEEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THUS, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE FLOODING WILL CERTAINLY BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK, THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE MID TO LATE
WEEK. AT THIS POINT, HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BOTH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME MVFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH THE EXTENT OF FOG MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY.
PERIODIC IFR CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR STORMS. RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AMID
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION, FOG, AND STRATUS.
SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION; HOWEVER, LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN ANY
STORMS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WITH FOG AND/OR
STRATUS MAY BE WORSE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 07/10/26
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H L L M M M H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M M M M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M L L M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H L L H M M H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND/OR STRATUS EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>034-039-040-515>526.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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