142
FXUS61 KRLX 070419
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1219 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEK.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.6 TO 2 INCHES. EFFECTIVE LAYER CAPE IS
GENERALLY IN THE 1200 TO 1800 RANGE. THOSE VALUES COMBINED WITH
STORM MOTIONS AROUND OR UNDER 10 KNOTS COULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME DRIER AIR DOES MOVE INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL
OHIO ON WEDNESDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH
HOWEVER, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL IN THE 1.75 TO 2
INCH RANGE OVER NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY
SATURATED IN MANY LOCATIONS, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK AND
SOME AREAS BECOMING SATURATED, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBILITY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE CHANCES OUTSIDE OF THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME DRY AIR DOES SLIP IN ON WEDNESDAY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, POSSIBLY LIMITING CONVECTION THERE.
FURTHER SOUTH THE DRY AIR IS MAINLY IN THE MID LEVELS WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SOME STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY, AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT
LOCATIONS RECEIVING RAINFALL LAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT A CUMULUS DECK TO FORM BY MID MORNING, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE RAINFALL
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND DENSITY OF FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING COULD VARY. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 07/07/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H L H M M M L M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, MORE LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPY
AVIATION...RPY
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