323  
FXUS61 KRLX 171733  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
133 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A TROPICALLY INFLUENCED AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH  
NUMEROUS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK.  
AS SOILS BECOME INCREASINGLY COMPROMISED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL, FLASH FLOODING WILL PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE LIKELY  
WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
* A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY  
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
 
* CONTINUED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ATOP OF INCREASINGLY LOCALLY  
COMPROMISED SOILS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, SOME LOCALLY  
SIGNIFICANT  
 
* WET MICROBURSTS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT  
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED  
 
* A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE TROPICALLY INFLUENCED AIRMASS IS POSSIBLE  
EARLY NEXT WEEK  
 
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US AND SLOWLY  
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLE  
TO STL ARE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION  
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. ALONG AND OF THE FRONT, PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST IN-LINE WITH 12Z OBSERVED  
UPSTREAM UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS WHILE VALUES NORTH SLOWLY TAPER OFF,  
BUT REMAIN ABOVE 75TH PERCENTILE VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.  
 
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER PALTRY (~5.5C/KM)  
TYPICAL OF A TROPICALLY INFLUENCED AIRMASS, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
AND SURFACE HEATING SHOULD YIELD 1000-2500J/KG MLCAPE BY PEAK  
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FORECAST TO REMAIN  
RELATIVELY WEAK (15-25KTS), THE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL FAVOR  
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF  
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE, ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF GUSTY WINDS  
ASSOCIATED WITH WET MICROBURSTS. WHILE STORMS WILL BE MOVING  
ALONG AT 20-25 MPH, SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LAY OUT MORE WEST TO EAST ACROSS  
OUR AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING, SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH THROUGH  
THE NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR  
STORMS WHICH WOULD STRONGLY SUGGEST SOME WEST TO EAST TRAINING  
POTENTIAL. SOME AREAS ACROSS OUR NORTH HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT  
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH 3HR FLASH FLOOD  
GUIDANCE AS LOW AS 1.2 INCHES. FARTHER SOUTH PRECIPITATION HAS  
BEEN MUCH MORE SPOTTY WITH 3HR GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN EXCESS OF 2  
INCHES.  
 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL  
HEATING. HOWEVER, THE STALLING FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH  
FORCING TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
OVERNIGHT, CONTINUING THE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT. A FLASH FLOOD  
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  
 
NO CHANGE IN THE SETUP FOR FRIDAY, EXCEPT THE COLD FRONT REVERSES  
COURSE AND SLOWLY HEAD BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL  
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR STORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON, AND WEST TO EAST TRAINING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THAT ALREADY HAVE  
COMPROMISED SOILS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION WITH NEIGHBORING  
WFOS WITH HOW TO BOTH COVER THIS, AND A CONTINUING THREAT WITH THE  
SAME AIRMASS LINGERING FOR SATURDAY. CURRENT LOCAL THINKING IS THAT  
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A GAP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO  
HOIST A SEPARATE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LATER EVENTS. FOR THOSE  
AMPLIFYING OUR MESSAGING, THE MESSAGE WE WANT TO GET OUT IS THAT  
THIS TYPE OF SETUP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT  
LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS LEADING TO LIFE THREATENING FLASH  
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A VULNERABLE AREA (EXAMPLE - A HOLLOW  
DRAINING A FAIRLY LARGE AREA WITH STRUCTURES ALONG A FAIRLY NARROW  
DRAINAGE NEAR THE MOUTH) IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TO MAINTAIN  
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...  
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH ZONAL  
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH FEATURING A WARN FRONT LIFTING NORTH EARLY  
SATURDAY LEAVING THE ENTIRE REGION MIRED DEEPLY IN THE TROPICALLY  
INFLUENCED AIRMASS AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS TO  
FINALLY HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO PUSH ALL THE WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE  
AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER  
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED SOILS (CONTINGENT ON PRECEDING  
RAINFALL). AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION, WILL LIKELY  
NEED AT LEAST SOME CONTINUING FLOOD WATCHES, LARGELY CONTINGENT ON  
SOIL CONDITIONS. WHILE LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE  
POSSIBLE, AVERAGE RAINFALL OVER THE LARGER BASINS WILL REMAIN QUITE  
MANAGEABLE, GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY SO  
PROBLEMS ON ANY LARGER WATERWAYS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...  
 
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE  
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THIS SHOULD LEAVE OUR REGION ON THE EASTERN  
FLANK OF THE PLUME OF BETTER COLUMN MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN  
A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER, THE  
ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY VOID OF MOISTURE, AND ISOLATED TO  
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON "POP-UP" THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE  
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE  
WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST TO CLIMB FROM THE UPPER 80S ON MONDAY INTO THE LOW 90S BY  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH CONTINUED HUMIDITY, HEAT INDEX VALUES  
WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...  
 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE THE PRIMARY AVIATION  
HAZARD THROUGH THIS EVENING, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR/IFR  
CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING. CEILINGS  
WILL DROP TO 1000-3000 FEET AGL WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 1-3 MILES  
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
PREVAIL.  
 
OVERNIGHT, AS CONVECTION DIMINISHES, AREAS OF VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS  
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE  
RAINFALL. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SLOWLY  
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AS FOG AND STRATUS LIFTS AND DISSIPATES.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATIONS AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. OVERNIGHT FOG  
FORMATION IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02  
EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...  
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS INTO  
NEXT WEEK. IFR OR WORSE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE  
OVERNIGHTS, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY HEAVY RAIN FALLS THE PREVIOUS  
DAY.  
 
 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-  
024>034-039-040-515>526.  
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ075-076-083>087.  
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.  
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...JP  
NEAR TERM...JP  
SHORT TERM...JP  
LONG TERM...JP  
AVIATION...JP  
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