085
FXUS61 KRLX 050206
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
906 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
500 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE KY, S OH, AND WEST
CENTRAL WV CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA AT PRESENT, WITH THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING IN SOME LOCATIONS,
AND COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS FURTHER NORTH IF
HEAVIER RATES WERE TO MOVE OVER LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED THROUGH THE EVENING
TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN
ADDED INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, PRIMARILY
CENTRAL/NORTH WHERE RAIN HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED.
1235 PM UPDATE...
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
LESSER ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND LOWER CONVECTIVE TRAINING
POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1. REPEATED ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WILL MAINTAIN A FLOOD THREAT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
2. ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEARING OR EXCEEDING DAILY RECORDS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
3. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BRING A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE, PROVIDED
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT, A NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL DEVELOP AND OVERRUN THE STALLED BOUNDARY, PROVIDING FOCUSED
ASCENT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA. THIS REGION IS PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE
TO RUNOFF GIVEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THAT
HAS RESULTED IN SATURATED SOILS.
FLOW ALOFT IS ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY,
ESTABLISHING A HIGHLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC SETUP FOR CELL
TRAINING. WHILE DETERMINISTIC NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREAL
AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 1 INCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
PERSISTENT TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD EASILY YIELD
LOCALIZED TOTALS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING
1 INCH PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTIVE CORES WILL RAPIDLY
TRANSLATE TO SURFACE RUNOFF, OVERWHELMING SMALL BASINS AND
NARROW HOLLOWS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
IN TIME FOR THESE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST, LESSER ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR
CONVECTIVE TRAINING HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE CANCELLATION OF THE
WATCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL WANE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT,
PLACING THE FORECAST AREA FIRMLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. H500
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US AND EXTEND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL ADVECT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION, SETTING THE STAGE FOR NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING
TEMPERATURES. NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PUSHES AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
EXCEPTIONALLY MILD, REMAINING IN THE 60S AND LIKELY EXCEEDING
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE A POTENT COLD
FRONT SLATED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE PROGGED TO BE HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PARAMETERS, SUCH AS
EFFECTIVE BULK WIND DIFFERENCE, APPROACHING 40KTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THE
THERMODYNAMIC EVOLUTION. EXTENSIVE PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER OR
LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS COULD INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING AND
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING OCCURS
AND MIXED-LAYER CAPE (MLCAPE) VALUES CAN APPROACH OR EXCEED 1000
J/KG, A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE. GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT, DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD, EXACERBATED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ANY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT CAPE (DCAPE). ADDITIONALLY, ADEQUATE 0-1
KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WOULD
INTRODUCE A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A MIXTURE OF AVIATION CONDITIONS AT PRESENT RANGING FROM VFR TO
LIFR ACROSS THE AREA, PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CIGS. IN
GENERAL, A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS CIGS GRADUALLY RISE AND SCT SHOWERS
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER NORTH. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN CENTRAL/SOUTH, WHILE MVFR/IFR LINGERS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN ANY BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER, BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVERNIGHT
SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTH, WHILE MVFR COULD LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH WITH LOWER CIGS. ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN BRIEF
MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT A FEW TERMINALS.
CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ON THURSDAY. BREEZES OF 15-20
KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, LLWS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY VARY FROM THE
FORECAST DEPENDING ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF RAIN. PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN LOWER VSBY THAN IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H L M H M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H M L H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H M M H H L
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS/STORMS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST / RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
---------------------------------------
FRIDAY, 3/6 | SATURDAY, 3/7 |
---------------------------------------
CRW | 80 / 80 (1956) | 80 / 81 (2009) |
HTS | 80 / 81 (1956) | 80 / 82 (1983) |
CKB | 74 / 83 (1983) | 77 / 77 (2009) |
PKB | 76 / 76 (1973) | 78 / 80 (2009) |
BKW | 74 / 75 (1910) | 76 / 74 (2009) |
EKN | 74 / 77 (1946) | 77 / 76 (2009) |
---------------------------------------
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ007>011-017-019-
020.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP/GW
AVIATION...GW
CLIMATE...JP/GW
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