111
FXUS61 KRLX 302241
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
641 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS LATEST MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT IT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAT WAVE CONTINUES WITH DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS AND
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
2. STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES IN THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR MOST, HOWEVER CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TODAY AND THURSDAY.
3. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE HEADING INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DANGEROUS AND PROLONGED HEAT WAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG AND BROAD H500 HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION, MOVING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS UNDER LIGHT SW FLOW AND
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THESE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S WILL CREATE AN OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 100S. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE HEAT
INDICES NEARING 110 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
DID LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMPS AWAY FROM THE NBM DUE TO KNOWN
WARM BIAS WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED TO MIX DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH DOING THIS HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
RANGE BETWEEN 95 AND 110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT SAFETY
SHOULD BE EXERCISED THIS WEEK.
THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE
COUNTIES OF TYLER, DODDRIDGE, CLAY, BRAXTON, GILMER, LEWIS, AND
HARRISON AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES
AND IMPACTS ACROSS THESE COUNTIES. THE HEAT ADVISORY STILL
STANDS ACROSS OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES DICKENSON, VA UP THROUGH
BARBOUR AND TAYLOR IN WV. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF RALEIGH,
FAYETTE, NICHOLAS, WEBSTER, POCAHONTAS, AND RANDOLPH ARE
CURRENTLY OUTSIDE OF DANGEROUS HEAT CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS WITH FORECASTS UPDATES TO DETERMINE THE NEED FOR
FURTHER PRODUCT EXPANSION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
H500 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU REGION OF TN AND KY. BROAD AXIS OF RIDGING IS STATIONED
OVER OUR AREA WITH SOME NOTABLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE ISOBARS.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
THE CHANCES DO EXIST FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MIGRATES OVER OUR SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AND MOUNTAINS. AS
SUCH, WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE DRIEST DAY, AFTER
FLEETING CHANCES FOR MORNING SHOWERS PASS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
BREAK DOWN. DURING THIS TIME, THE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
ACTIVE WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGENT AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE
MESSINESS OF THIS UPCOMING PATTERN, BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
COVERAGE IS INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. THE MAIN DRIVER
WITH THIS WILL BE A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL
SET UP SHOP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND DENSITY OF FOG
TONIGHT COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW DAILY RECORD HIGHS COULD BE
CHALLENGED.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
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TUE | WED | THU | FRI |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW | 99 (1936) | 102 (1931) | 105 (1931) | 105 (1931) |
HTS | 100 (2012) | 102 (1941) | 101 (1931) | 97 (2012) |
CKB | 98 (1969) | 98 (1931) | 99 (1931) | 100 (1966) |
PKB | 97 (1933) | 99 (1931) | 98 (1931) | 99 (2012) |
BKW | 100 (1936) | 93 (1941) | 94 (1931) | 93 (1931) |
EKN | 95 (2012) | 94 ( 1913) | 93 (1966) | 92 (1911) |
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RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>031.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ032>034-039-040-
515-517-519-521-525.
OH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...RPY
CLIMATE...RPY
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