043
FXUS61 KRLX 161724
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
124 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL SPAWN A ROUND OF STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.
- 2) ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
- 3) COOLER AND DRIER TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WILL
SWEEP A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING, AND INCREASING SHEAR, ON
THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS, WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW, AND SPC HAS
PLACED MUCH OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS
EVENING, BUT AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT COULD KEEP A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS GOING, POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM BUT GENERALLY
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING BY THEN.
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EXITS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH REBOUNDING
HEIGHTS TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE AREA, AND A MAINLY DRY, BUT CONTINUED
WARM FRIDAY ON TAP.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. BETTER INSTABILITY, AND DYNAMICS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR, LOOK TO
BE ACROSS SE OHIO AND THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE PERIOD,
AND SPC HAS PLACED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK
TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD DURING THIS TIME. THE GOOD NEWS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, IS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD GET A WETTING RAIN OUT OF IT, AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY DAMPENING FIRE CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
AREA, PARTICULARLY IN THE 20Z THROUGH 04Z TIME RANGE. EXPECT BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG, ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20 KT RANGE.
BULK OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 04Z, BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THERE MAY BE MVFR MIST, AND MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS IS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS
OR AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM THAN FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M M H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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