195
FXUS61 KRLX 182042
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
342 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS HAS INCREASED. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST VIRGINIA.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS. IN GENERAL, ACCUMULATIONS
OF A HALF INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP
TO ONE INCH. THIS COULD LEAD TO SLICK CONDITIONS FOR THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN SOME AREAS GIVEN THE COLD.
- 2) AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS ON THE MLK HOLIDAY WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF EVEN COLDER AIR, GUSTY WINDS OF 20-35 MPH,
AND THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN MONDAY NIGHT AMID DRY CONDITIONS, WITH LOW WIND
CHILLS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- 3) THE OVERALL PATTERN OF SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS PERSISTS,
WITH ONE CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN ANOTHER NEXT
WEEKEND, THAT ONE POSSIBLY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING
UP ALONG IT. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONTS, AND THEN BACK DOWN BELOW BEHIND THEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER/SASKATCHEWAN SCREAMER
PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE
NORTHERN LOWLANDS, WITH LIGHT SNOW PROGGED BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT UNTIL NEAR DAWN. HAVE INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM
CENTRAL GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME-FRAME, WITH 40-60% CURRENTLY
PROGGED NORTH, WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST SOUTH. IN GENERAL,
EXPECT UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP
TO ONE INCH POSSIBLE, WITH AMOUNTS BEING 'GREATEST' FURTHER
NORTH. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY/TONIGHT, EVEN MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS COULD CAUSE SLICK CONDITIONS FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER THE OVERNIGHT SNOW (KEY MESSAGE 1), ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY, MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. DAY, AS AN ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES
THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
ALBERTA CLIPPER/SASKATCHEWAN SCREAMER THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-
STARVED, BUT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT SNOW SHOWERS (20-30
PERCENT), PRIMARILY FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES COULD LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT VIA A WEAK /
DISSIPATING MOISTURE FEED FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN BRIEF, BUT SUDDEN, REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.
IT WILL BECOME GUSTY ON MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES, WITH
PROGGED WIND GUSTS INCREASED FROM CENTRAL GUIDANCE. GUSTS OF
20-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WITH UP TO 45 MPH
(LOCALIZED HIGHER) ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AS CAA
OVERTAKES THE CWA.
THE BIGGEST STORY WILL BE THE COLDER AIR THAT WILL FILTER IN
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT, WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED,
AND THEN UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND
10S FOR HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STEADY SUSTAINED WINDS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT, COMBINED WITH
THE LOW TEMPERATURES, COULD RESULT IN MINIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURE, OR WIND CHILL, VALUES AS LOW AS -5 TO -20 IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WHILE (IN GENERAL) +5 TO -5
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BY DAWN TUESDAY. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST
VIRGINIA, RUNNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY UNTIL 2 PM TUESDAY ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN ZONES, WHILE FROM 9 PM MONDAY UNTIL
NOON TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN ZONES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER THE COLD START WEDNESDAY MORNING, STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES BY APPROXIMATELY 20
DEGREES FROM THAT OF TUESDAY, OR BACK TO NORMAL FOR THAT OF MID-
JANUARY (UPPER 30S TO MID 40S LOWLANDS; 30S TO LOW 40S
MOUNTAINS). THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A SNOW TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW TRANSITION
WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR DURING THIS TIME
(MOUNTAINS EXCLUDED - ALL SNOW THERE). TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK TO ~ 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THEREAFTER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS PROG ANOTHER FRONT, THAT BEING A
SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC BOUNDARY, ATTEMPTING TO CROSS THROUGH THE
AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
RIDING NORTHEAST. MULTIPLE DIFFERENT OUTCOMES REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH THIS, RANGING FROM COLD/DRY VERSUS A PERIOD OF MORE
PROLONGED / WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN STORM TRACK
AND PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS LOW, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT OVERALL ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY, WITH
A NOTED SOUTHERLY SHIFT WITH TODAY'S 12Z GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AT PRESENT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY POSSIBLE AT
CKB/PKB, WHILE MVFR CIG AT EKN. FOLLOWING THIS, AN ARCTIC FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH (CKB/PKB),
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS (CKB/EKN/PKB), WITH VFR
PROGGED ELSEWHERE.
WSW TO SW SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD (UNTIL
18Z MONDAY). FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT, THEN QUICKLY BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES/CROSSES,
WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS EXPECTED AT TIMES ON MONDAY, SLIGHTLY HIGHER
IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
AT BKW UNTIL SURFACE FLOW INCREASES THERE NEAR DAWN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, MEDIUM THEREAFTER.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
SNOW OVERNIGHT AND ON MONDAY MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST. LOCATION
AND TIMING OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEFORE DAWN MONDAY MAY VARY.
GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL FLUCTUATE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
WVZ039-040-516-518-520-521-524-525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
WVZ522-523-526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GW
AVIATION...GW
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