399  
FXUS61 KRLX 231032  
AFDRLX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
632 AM EDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM  
AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE  
SYSTEM RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 455 AM SATURDAY...  
 
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN SOUTHEAST RANDOLPH AND NORTHWEST  
POCAHONTAS COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WHILE A FEW FLURRIES  
WILL LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK, LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL  
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.  
 
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...  
 
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL  
CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR  
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO  
VALLEY. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT SHOULD BE  
LIGHT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR  
LESS. THUS, WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT  
09Z BASED OFF LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.  
 
BY MID MORNING, SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL LINGER NEAR THE NORTHEAST  
MOUNTAINS, BUT ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY LATE  
MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT LATE  
MARCH SUNSHINE, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL WITH COOL NW FLOW AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE CP AIRMASS  
ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN STREAMING INTO WESTERN AREAS BY THE END  
OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL AHEAD  
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST, OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST  
SUNDAY. FROM THE WEST, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A WARM FRONT FEATURE EXTENDING EAST  
INTO WV SHOULD LIFT NORTH, PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY WESTERN SECTIONS. STRATIFORM RAIN  
COULD LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE  
SUNDAY. THEN, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY MORNING AS THE FRONT SWEEPS FROM WEST TO EAST. ON THE BACK  
END THE SYSTEM, CAA WILL BRING FRESHER TEMPERATURE AND EVEN A BRING  
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OF ANY LINGERING MOISTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...  
 
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION. DESCENT AGREEMENT  
AMONG MODELS PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE ON FAIR WEATHER  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH A WARMING  
TREND TOWARD FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S  
LOWLANDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...  
 
SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE AREA WILL  
LINGER THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.  
THESE CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER ENOUGH TO MVFR, BUT EXPECTING  
THESE CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AS THE MORNING PROGESSES. THIS  
IS DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INTRODUCE VERY  
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION PROMOTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE  
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.  
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.  
 
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY  
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:  
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.  
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.  
 
UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21  
EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H  
 
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...  
PERIODS OF IFR IN RAIN MONDAY, AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WV...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
KY...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK  
NEAR TERM...RG  
SHORT TERM...ARJ  
LONG TERM...ARJ  
AVIATION...RG  
 
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