012
FXUS61 KRLX 071805
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH LITTLE CHANGE
NECESSITATED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. A LOW RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS INTACT AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND WARM WEATHER REMAINS FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, AN OMEGA BLOCK EXISTS ACROSS THE U.S., WITH
THE CWA BENEATH THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE EASTERNMOST CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED IN
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE BECOMING
EVEN MORE-PRONOUNCED TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SLOSHES EASTWARD FOLLOWING THE COLLAPSE OF THE OMEGA BLOCK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS BREACHING 90 DEGREES FOR SOME LOCALES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CWA WILL REMAIN BEREFT OF POPS
OTHERWISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME BOUTS OF VALLEY FOG
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AMIDST LIGHT WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE COLLAPSE
OF THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL HAVE BEEN INDUCED BY THE WESTERNMOST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE GLACIER COUNTRY, WITH
SAID FEATURE EJECTING EASTWARD AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
THURSDAY WHILE REMAINING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CWA, THEREBY PLACING THE CWA BENEATH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION TO
THE INTENSIFYING, POSITIVELY-TILTED JETLETS ALOFT. THE ADVECTION OF
A TALL, SKINNY EML WILL BE DRIVEN BY MODEST GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
FALLS, ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE <1,500 J/KG AMIDST
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD DEBRIS, WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC
HEATING. ORTHOGONALLY-ORIENTED SHEAR VECTORS THROUGHOUT THE CLOUD-
BEARING LAYER RELATIVE TO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY, WITH PWATS
CLIMBING BETWEEN 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MEAN. HOWEVER, THE DEEP- AND CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL ALSO
BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT ATTAINS A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO ITS MOVEMENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEREBY POSING A
RISK FOR TRAINING STORMS WITHIN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY PORTIONS OF THE LINEAR CONVECTION THAT
CAN BECOME ORGANIZED. WATER-LOADED CORES MAY POSE A RISK FOR LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LOW THURSDAY. POPS
WILL GRADUALLY WANE FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD AND ITS
AXIS OF DILATATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THAT IS, THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT
WILL DO LITTLE TO SCOUR OUT THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WILL HAVE
BEEN INTACT DAYS PRIOR. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL SOUTH OF
THE CWA THIS WEEKEND WHILE CONTINUING TO DECAY, WITH OFF-AND-ON POPS
LASTING THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SMALLER-SCALE
PERTURBATIONS EJECT OVER THE WARM, AND SOMEWHAT RECYCLED, MOIST
AIRMASS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. MUGGY AND
WARM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBKW, WHERE MVFR STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE BREAKING UP. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT KBKW, WITH CALM-TO-LIGHT WINDS FOR ALL OTHER
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. VALLEY FOG WILL RETURN TONIGHT, WITH VSBY
REDUCTIONS RANGING FROM MVFR-IFR, WITH LIFR/BLO MINS POSSIBLE AT
KEKN PRIOR TO SUNRISE. A BELT OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST
FEW KFT AGL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OF WV SHOULD PREVENT
GREATER COVERAGE OF FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS FROM COMING TO FRUITION
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY. RAPID IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR WILL
ARRIVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AT ALL TERMINALS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN LOW-MEDIUM FOR
FOG TONIGHT.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF FOG FOR TONIGHT MAY
VARY FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VALLEY FOG WEDNESDAY
MORNING. REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY -SHRA/-TSRA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SINCAVAGE
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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