307
FXUS61 KRLX 090626
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED MOTHER'S DAY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. STILL
LOOKING AT FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY MORNING. SOME
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LIGHT RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE TODAY,
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING VERY LIGHT.
2. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE
REGION MOTHER'S DAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
3. LATE SEASON FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS.
4. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MEAN H500 TROUGHING REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES, MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TODAY
AMIDST WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, AND THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOLLOWING A MAINLY DRY SUNDAY MORNING, A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 45KTS. HOWEVER,
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER (OR PERHAPS ANY THUNDER AT ALL). WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT, AND EVEN THE TYPICALLY
MOIST- BIASED NAM GUIDANCE ONLY GENERATES AROUND 800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY, THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS LOW, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE MOST ROBUST
CORES WITHIN THE LINE. AT PRESENT, THE SPC OUTLOOK DOES NOT
HAVE ANY GENERAL THUNDER DEPICTED FOR DAY 2, BUT WOULD EXPECT
SOME TO EVENTUALLY BE ADDED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN
SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE UNDER CLEAR SKIES, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. CENTRAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INITIALIZE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM IN THIS PATTERN. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN AREAS SUBJECT TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE AWAY FROM
MAJOR RIVERS TO PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WITH FREEZE IN THE BETTER PROTECTED VALLEYS.
PRESENT DETERMINISTIC GRIDS WOULD LIMIT RISK FARTHER OUT INTO
THE LOWLANDS, BUT WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE
HIGHLIGHTS GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP. WITH THE GROWING SEASON
WELL UNDERWAY, THIS LATE-SEASON COLD WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD TO AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS AND SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS BY MIDWEEK, ALLOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
ADVECT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE EXTENT OF
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, WITH CEILINGS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 050 AND 100. COULDN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN A HEAVIER SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10KTS. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT AS THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE EXITS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: AN ISOLATED HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER COULD
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR BRIEFLY TODAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/09/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JP
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