599
FXUS61 KRLX 060817
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
417 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY NUDGE INTO THE REGION EARLY
THIS WEEK, PROVIDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLD
NIGHTS, AND MILD, MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS. IN ADDITION, THE VERY DRY AIR,
COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, WILL
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT, ALTHOUGH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
2) THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY NUDGE INTO THE AREA TODAY,
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
BUT OVERALL CHANCES ARE LOW, AND MAIN EFFECT WILL LIKELY JUST BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, OR PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES IF PROFILES ARE
ABLE TO MOISTEN ENOUGH.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD CONCERNS THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS PROGGED TO TAKE HOLD, AND THE COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN THE NEED FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES,
PARTICULARLY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN CONTROL. PARTS OF SE OHIO
COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING, WITH FROST POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GROWING AREA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FROST AS WINDS MAY NOT BECOME LIGHT
ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR
SOME NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE ON FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXISTS, AND WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR
ADDITIONAL FROST HEADLINES FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. A MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LASTLY, WITH THE DRY AIR MASS ANTICIPATED TO BE IN PLACE, AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY DIP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE MOST DAYS THIS WEEK, WITH POCKETS OF TEENS POSSIBLE. THIS,
COMBINED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, WILL
AID IN THE DRYING OF FUELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK, AND
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE
AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY, CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GENERALLY
MAINTAIN ITS DOMINANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD.
WINDS INCREASE AFTER 15Z MONDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AROUND
7-13 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 00Z-04Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 04/06/26
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515-517-519-521-524-525.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ066-067-075-076-083-084.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL
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