487
FXUS61 KRLX 180852
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
452 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
09Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING WITH
DRY WEATHER RETURNING. HOWEVER, CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS REMAIN
HIGH IN MANY AREAS FROM RECENT RAINFALL. PLEASE BE MINDFUL OF
LINGERING FLOODING AND COMPLY WITH ANY EXISTING ROAD CLOSURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THIS MORNING'S COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED BY DENSE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS, REDUCING VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS.
2) A DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT THE THREAT LEVEL WILL NOT BE AS
INTENSE COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE GROUND REMAINS VERY SATURATED FROM NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF RAINFALL
SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SETTLE AND WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN MOSTLY CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH CAN ALREADY BE
SEEN VIA GOES MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASOS OBSERVATIONS.
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. UNTIL THEN, THE MORNING COMMUTE CAN BE
IMPACTED WITH LOW VISIBILITY IN SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING WITH MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST, AS SEEN ON GOES SATELLITE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH DRIER DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BUT LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, REINTRODUCING RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE GROUND
IS WITH MANY RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH, THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL INTENSITY APPEARS LOWER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED AT
1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES THURSDAY, BUT THIS IS LOWER THAN WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS (PWATS OF 2.10 TO 2.25
FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND). THEREFORE, ANY NEW DOWNPOURS SHOULD NOT BE
AS INTENSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LINGERING MID-LEVEL ENERGY ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES AROUND. MODELS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW DO
NOT LOOK AS INTENSE, BUT NEW FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE, GIVEN HOW
SATURATED OUR SOILS ARE.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS IN LOW STRATUS IS THE PRIMARY ISSUE THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z
WITH VFR RETURNING FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. EXPECT LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE IF
LOW STRATUS BECOMES SCT OR FEW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 08/18/26
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M H L H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L M M L H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M L M L H M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
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