263
FXUS61 KRLX 062240
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL ELIGIBLE ZONES. WILL LIKELY NEED
ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION FORECAST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY DUE TO
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S, GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS, AND DRY FINE DEAD FUELS.
2) FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
COLDEST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND IN AREAS SUBJECT TO COLD AIR
DRAINAGE.
3) A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY, PUSHING
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND WITH
LARGELY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, USHERING IN A COOLER AND DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS. ANALYSIS
OF THE 12Z ILN AND PIT SOUNDINGS REVEALS A PRONOUNCED LAYER OF
DRY AIR SITUATED JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING INTO THIS DRY LAYER TODAY AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS CARRIES A KNOWN
MOIST BIAS REGARDING DEW POINTS DURING THE SPRING SHOULDER
SEASON WHEN VEGETATION IS NOT YET FULLY ACTIVE. THEREFORE, THE
FORECAST DEVIATES BELOW NBM DEW POINT GUIDANCE, FAVORING VALUES
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. THIS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE, WITH LOCALIZED UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON, REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH. WHILE THE LOWLANDS ARE
EXPERIENCING RAPID GREEN-UP, THE FOREST CANOPY REMAINS LARGELY
BARE, LEAVING THE FOREST FLOOR UNSHELTERED. OBSERVATIONS OF
10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURES FROM THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DROPPED INTO
THE CRITICAL 9 TO 12 RANGE ACROSS SEVERAL RAWS SITES. THIS
INDICATES THAT FINE DEAD FUELS, SUCH AS LEAF LITTER AND DEAD
GRASSES, ARE HIGHLY RECEPTIVE TO IGNITION. THE COMBINATION OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, GUSTY WINDS, AND DRY FINE FUELS WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE LIVE FUELS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LUSH
WITH RECENT RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT, COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE INVOLVES THE
PERSISTENCE OF BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT WINDS, WHICH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 8 MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS RIDGETOPS. THIS WILL HINDER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER, AREAS SUBJECT TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE
SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO DECOUPLE, ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO DROP TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. BECAUSE THE GROWING
SEASON IS ACTIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, A FREEZE WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE VULNERABLE PROTECTED VALLEYS WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. A FREEZE
IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN ALL TOPOGRAPHY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE COMBINATION OF CALM WINDS, CLEAR
SKIES, AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MAXIMIZED COLD AIR DRAINAGE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND SEVERE FREEZE, WITH
TEMPERATURES PLUNGING INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS MOST VALLEYS.
ADDITIONAL FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS
PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY,
INITIATING RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
APPALACHIA. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED AND
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB EACH DAY, RISING 10 TO 15
DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY, AND APPROACHING 20 DEGREES F
ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S F ACROSS THE LOWLANDS THIS WEEKEND.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SLOW INITIALLY, KEEPING THE FORECAST
LARGELY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES, BUT OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN FIRM PLACE FOR MOST ALL SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OR FEW HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN
12,000 AND 25,000 FEET AGL AFTER ~00Z. SOME MODELS SHOW LOW
CLOUDS FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS DUE TO A COLD
FRONT CROSSING TONIGHT. BKN CIGS BETWEEN 2,000 AND 3,500 FEET
AGL(MVFR) COULD BE POSSIBLE AT EKN AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE, VFR
WILL PREVAIL MOST EVERYWHERE.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WNW'RLY TONIGHT SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5 AND
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. EXPECTING WINDS TO
SLACK OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BY ~06Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
NNW'RLY TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS MAY NOT OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515-517-519-521-524-525.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...LTC
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