677
FXUS61 KRLX 122326
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
726 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED 725PM. THE EARLIER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER HAS WANED. ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS
REMAIN, BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY TRIMMED BASED
WITH THE RISK REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE I-79 AND US-119
CORRIDORS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD IS DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS, THOUGH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF STORM
TRACKS PHASE.
2. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY, WITH AREAS
OF FOG EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
3. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR SUNDAY REGARDING THE
TIMING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRE-
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000
TO 2000 J/KG WITH ONLY MINIMAL MLCIN. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
ALONG THE EXPECTED CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION WILL BE 20 TO 30KTS,
SUPPORTING MAINLY MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS
ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. WITH SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF
15 TO 20F AND DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG COUPLED WITH
WATER LOADED SOUNDINGS, THIS SHOULD READILY SUPPORT MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT TO THE SURFACE FROM COLLAPSING PRECIPITATION CORES.
GIVEN THE MODESTLY STRONGER SHEAR COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, STOUT
CORES WILL LIKELY BE LONGER LIVED AND LESS SUBJECT TO IMMEDIATE
UPDRAFT PRECIPITATION LOADING. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITHIN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS,
PARTICULARLY WITH ANY LEFT SPLITS.
AN ADDITIONAL TRAILING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH
THIS SECONDARY LINE, INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER OR
NEGLIGIBLE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND
NARROWER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FROM THE INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS.
HOWEVER, IF THIS TRAILING LINE INTERACTS WITH A LESS OVERTURNED
ENVIRONMENT, A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND OR MARGINAL HAIL THREAT
MAY PERSIST.
ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE, ISOLATED
HIGH WATER ISSUES COULD MATERIALIZE IF THE PRECIPITATION
FOOTPRINTS OF THE PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL CONVECTION PHASE OVER
THE SAME NARROW VALLEYS OR BUILT UP AREAS. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO LARGELY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 8 TO 9 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
FOSTER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESTABLISHING STEEP VALLEY
INVERSIONS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY
FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. ANY FOG
THAT DEVELOPS IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 8 AM, GIVING WAY TO A
DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR SUNDAY REGARDING
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
COULD DRIVE A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES BY SUNDAY MORNING, OR THIS ACTIVITY COULD
REINVIGORATE AS IT ADVANCES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FURTHERMORE, ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. IF THIS LATE-DAY CONVECTION INITIATES WITHIN
A PRISTINE, UNDISTURBED ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE RATHER WEAK OR EXITING THE AREA AND THIS
CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, DENSE VALLEY FOG IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT FOG-PRONE VALLEY
TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 06Z TO 08Z, PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY 13Z SATURDAY, LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG DEVELOPMENT TIMING AND DENSITY COULD
VARY TONIGHT.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 06/13/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H L M M L L L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L M
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.
IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JRM/JP
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