669
FXUS61 KRLX 300446
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1246 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 940 PM WEDNESDAY...
INCREASED POPS NORTH WHERE PERSISTENT SHOWERS CONTINUE AT THIS
HOUR WITH A MODEST UNSTABLE LAYER THROUGH AROUND 10KFT. SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS UNSTABLE LAYER WANE THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TODAY,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2.) MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE
CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN PREVALENT THUS FAR, ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
QUITE MUTED GIVEN SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER GREATLY
LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN DECENT KINEMATIC
FIELDS AND LOW/MID LEVEL FORCING, THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS REMAINS AHEAD OF AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. THE MAIN HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
AN ISOLATED SPIN-UP AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY BECOMES MORE SO OF THE ISOLATED VARIETY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY FALLING INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA BY DAWN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MUCH COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MEANDERS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHEAST
CONUS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF PROLONGED GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES AMID THE BROADER UPPER
AIR PATTERN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-50%), BUT IN GENERAL, MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
GENERALLY BEING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS.
IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, POSSIBLY FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. AT THE CURRENT TIME, IT APPEARS THAT
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POCAHONTAS/RANDOLPH COUNTIES
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL LATE IN THE DAY. WORKING
AGAINST THE FOG IS A NORTHWEST WIND, SO ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM
COULD DISSIPATE AS WELL. SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS NEAR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AGAIN TONIGHT ON WHETHER ANY FOG WILL FORM.
WINDS WILL BE CALM HOWEVER, SO ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM COULD
BECOME RATHER DENSE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG, OTHERWISE HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING, AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MVFR MAY OR MAY NOT FORM ALONG THE WV
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 04/30/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M L L L L M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L H H M H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY M H M H M M M M M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H M M M M
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WVZ523>526.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP/GW
AVIATION...RPY
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