937
FXUS61 KRLX 051706
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
106 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT NEW SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
QUESTIONABLE, AND WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
THAT OCCURS LATER TODAY. THIS IS DISCUSSED IN KEY MESSAGE 1.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION HAS LARGELY STABILIZED MUCH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER TODAY MAY ALLOW FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS QUESTIONABLE.
2) A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. MUCH OF
THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY EXITED NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA, SOUTHEAST OHIO, AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, BUT A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND FAR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
MIDDAY HOURS.
THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
LARGELY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE, LEAVING OVERCAST TO BROKEN
STRATUS IN ITS WAKE. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS ARE LARGELY
IN AGREEMENT TODAY, SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AFTER 20Z. ADDITIONAL SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS QUESTIONABLE, AND
WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES LATER
TODAY, IF AT ALL.
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR CAN BE SEEN ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AIR FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL RETURN SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THE COMFORTABLE,
LESS HUMID AIR SHOULD STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE 500-
MB RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING THE RETURN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO CROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH MAY SIGNAL THE
RETURN OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD MORNING CONVECTION HAS CLEARED OUT, BUT MVFR STRATUS
FROM PRIOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGERS AT A FEW OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR AREAWIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WHICH CAN BRING VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DURING DOWNPOURS. VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED TO A FEW OF
THE 18Z TAFS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT IFR AND LIFR RESTRICTIONS. THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND VFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
FOG OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE
MORNINGS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
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