512
FXUS61 KRLX 120941
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
541 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
312 AM UPDATE...
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS, NOW PUSHING OFFSHORE, LEAVES BEHIND A
BLANKET OF OVERCAST WITH EMBEDDED DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
INTO LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. OPTED TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
DRIZZLE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AS A RESULT.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) LOW STRATUS, EMBEDDED DRIZZLE, AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS REMAIN
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
A DEPARTING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
2.) HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL YIELD A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT
ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
3.) THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ADVERTISES A BLAST OF COLD AIR
USHERING IN BEHIND A SUCCESSION OF COLD FRONTS. THIS MAY SUPPLY
THE FIRST OBSERVATION OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR THE SEASON
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS THE BULK OF LEFTOVER
SHOWERS PROMPTED BY THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS NOW LOCATED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. EXCESSIVE MOISTURE TRICKLING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST CASTS WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FEATURING EMBEDDED DRIZZLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY
SATURATED THERMAL PROFILE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL CLIMATE
SITES THAT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGHOUT TODAY AS MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR PRESSES DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE. THIS SIGNATURE
HOLDS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING THEN BREAKS DOWN FROM WEST TO
EAST HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING
COMPRESSED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING.
SUNSHINE WILL THEN RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA, ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO
THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AND LOWERING SURFACE FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING INTO THE GULF COAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO SPAN THE 70S AND
80S AHEAD OF ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING ONCE MORE FOR MIDWEEK.
THE RIDGE LOSES INFLUENCE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS DRIVES A
COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ATTACHED TO THE FRONT ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH BY
THE LATER HALF OF WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN
CLOSE VICINITY TO THE FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER WITH THIS FEATURE, WHICH MAY HELP TO
SUPPRESS CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK MAINTAINS UNSETTLED WEATHER AS
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIFTS AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME ON
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SUCCESSION OF COLD FRONTS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS UNLOCKS THE DOOR FOR A SURGE OF COLD AIR TO PIVOT
DOWN FROM CANADA AND YIELD THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FORECAST SO
FAR THIS SEASON. POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN
LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE THAT COULD STIR UP SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE RIDGES OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN ZONES. ADDITIONALLY, SUB-
TO NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY PROMOTE AN AREAWIDE FREEZE THAT
COULD BRING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINS MASKED OVER OUR
AIRSPACE THIS MORNING WITHIN LOW STRATUS AND EMBEDDED
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN. THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
DURING THE MORNING, WITH CLEARING PROGGED BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR RIVER VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
BACK OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE ZULU DAY.
AFTERNOON GUSTS AVERAGING AROUND 15KTS MAY BE OBSERVED AT BKW
AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WITH
LOW STRATUS, RAIN, AND PATCHY FOG WILL VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
IN ADDITION, THE TIMING OF A RETURN TO VFR WILL ALSO VARY THIS
AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 10/12/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H M M H H M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L H H M H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H M H L H M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MORNING VALLEY FOG ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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