347
FXUS61 KRLX 022353
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
753 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR THE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- 2) MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF FROST AND FREEZE POSSIBLE STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
STATIONARY FRONT DOCKED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES LIFTS
NORTH TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL THEN REMAIN PARKED THERE
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY WARM, ALMOST
SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS STOUT WARM
SECTOR PAIRED WITH SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER-LEVEL WILL CREATE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECTING MOSTLY "GARDEN VARIETY" PULSE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT SOME MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MORE SUPPORT FROM UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING
TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS WITH STORMS
ON FRIDAY.
MUCH OF THE SAME RISKS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, BUT
SATURDAY'S STORMS WILL BE DRIVEN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN A SOLID
AGREEMENT, EXCEPT THE NAM WHICH DELAYS ITS ARRIVAL BY 2 TO 3
HOURS. SOME MODELS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF A MAIN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK OUR TEMPERATURES
BACK QUITE A BIT FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING STARTING
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY (LOWLANDS WILL BE IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S).
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AND 30S WHICH
WILL POSSIBLY LEAD TO MULTIPLE NIGHTS OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
ACROSS OUR ACTIVE GROWING SEASON COUNTIES(ALL OF THE LOWLANDS
AND THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF VA AND WV). THIS WOULD BE OF
CONCERN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE A WARMING TREND STARTS THURSDAY.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OR GRAZE OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY,
BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FETCH FROM THE NW TO BRING SOME
VERY LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN WV MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER AND ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
IMPACTS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
FORECAST, WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
LEAVE A VFR BALANCE OF THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. PKB HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR BEING IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM, POSSIBLY STRONG, FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE SOUTH AND GUSTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, TO 15
TO 20 KTS, AND THEN SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY SATURDAY, TO 15 TO 25
KTS, BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND THEN
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT AT
TIMES WHEN SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT GUSTING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT MAY VARY. A THUNDERSTORM MAY
DIRECTLY IMPACT A TAF SITE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE HIGHEST CHANCE
BEING FOR PKB.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 04/03/26
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY EVENING, MAINLY NORTH/NORTHWEST, AND THEN AREA-WIDE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...TRM
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