451
FXUS61 KRLX 282336
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
736 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE
WARNING. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY IN VALLEYS AND AREAS SUBJECT TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE.
2.) ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA GIVEN CONTINUED DRYING AND
BREEZY WINDS AT TIMES.
3.) UNSEASONABLE WARMTH RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY/TUESDAY, WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY
ONWARD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AMID A RATHER DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER COURTESY OF DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON - SURFACE
DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. GIVEN
SUCH, DID TWEAK OVERNIGHT LOWS TOWARDS THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF
CENTRAL GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TYPICAL VALLEY COLD
SPOTS, GIVEN THE RATHER OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
INCREASING (RETURN) LOW-LEVEL FLOW LATER TONIGHT COULD RESULT
IN A LEVELING OFF OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RIDGES. LOWS ARE
GENERALLY PROGGED FOR THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WHILE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING (MIDNIGHT
UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING) ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA PROVIDING RETURN FLOW AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH 60S PROGGED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, WHILE
50S TO LOW 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ANOTHER SUBSTANTIALLY DRY LAYER (~ H800 TO H700) AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER ON SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN TO AN EXTENT
GIVEN JUST FEW/SCT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN
SUCH, EXPECT AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 15-30% ACROSS THE AREA
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AMID OCCASIONAL BREEZES OF
15-20+ MPH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW AS FINE FUELS CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DRY OUT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED LITTLE RAIN
WITH THE LAST COLD FRONT. DO ANTICIPATE NEEDING A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONTINUED RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WARMTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY/TUESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 70
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS ON MONDAY, WHILE LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY AMID BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN ISOLD DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
MONDAY/TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO THE
WEST, LEADING TO AN OVERALL UNSETTLED LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. WHILE COOLER THAN TUESDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT TO WHAT
EXTENT WILL BE HIGHLY CORRELATED TO THE POSITION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. THE AIR SHOULD BE DRY
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN
UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF IMPACT OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
WVZ005-013-024>026-033-034.
OH...NONE.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
DISCUSSION...JP/GW
AVIATION...26
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