082
FXUS61 KRLX 280551
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
151 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1) TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE FIRST ROUND
AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING, THEN ROUND TWO FOCUSED
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK,
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HI-RES MODELS ARE SUPPORTED BY UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY WITH THE
IDEA OF A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONGEALING TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER MI AND OH AND RIDING AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PULL IN MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH A SOURCE REGION WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY AROUND 80. WIND SHEAR ALSO INCREASES OVERNIGHT. SO
WHILE TIMING SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
ELEVATED, WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS
PERHAPS REACHING THE SURFACE.
PROBABLY A BIT MORE CONCERNING GIVEN RECENT EVENTS IS THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. PWATS ARE SHOWN
TO RISE OVER 2 INCHES UP THE OHIO RIVER LATER THIS MORNING AND
HREF POINTS TO A POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CONVECTION AND AN
ELEVATED RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN A NARROW CORRIDOR
DROPPING DOWN OVER THE HEART OF OUR CWA TOWARDS DAWN. THIS LOOKS
LIKE A LOCALIZED THREAT AND I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME, BUT WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL AS
THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION TAKES SHAPE THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS.
AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER IN THE MORNING, WE SHOULD HAVE
SEVERAL HOURS TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL
PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WE
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS TO CARRY A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL, ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN COMES OUT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING, BUT WE REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NY AND PA FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TO
FIRE IN OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING PLEASANT WEATHER. MODELS THEN
SHOW A TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING IN TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND
PERHAPS CUTTING OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS RESULTS IN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND PROBABLY INTO
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN ACTIVE AVIATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS THIS SYSTEM OVER
NORTHERN OHIO, AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SWEEPS
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 09Z
AND 14Z.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY IN PLACE AT ISSUANCE, THEY
WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE. EXPECT MVFR AND POCKETS OF IFR CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS MOVES
THROUGH.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION AND CREATE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST
TO SLOWLY LIFT AND IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
TODAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE ONSET AND DURATION OF IFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY FROM
THE FORECAST. CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS MAY BE STRONGER AND MORE
ERRATIC THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE TAFS. THE TIMELINE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONLY A
LOW CONFIDENCE. AVIATION HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS INDICATIONS OF
IFR MIST ONSET WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF THE END OF THIS TAF SET SO
KEPT WITH A TEMPO FOR NOW AT KEKN FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATE NIGHT FOG LASTS THROUGH THE
WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATES THROUGH THE NY/PA REGION.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ABE
AVIATION...DLH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page