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FXUS61 KRLX 050814
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
414 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING, JUST
WETTING SHOWERS. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION AT 409 AM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE ARE CLOSELY
WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND/OR FREEZE HEADLINES EARLY
THIS WEEK.
2) RAIN WILL MOVE OUT BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN A POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AREAWIDE. A
WINTER-LIKE CHILL WILL RETURN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIND
SHOULD BE JUST BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST
FORMATION WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN, BUT WE
HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IF GUIDANCE
CHANGES AND WIDESPREAD FROST APPEARS MORE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS, HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. TUESDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, AND THIS IS WHEN OUR CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST IN A POTENTIAL FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING FOR OUR
GROWING SEASON ZONES.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF WEST VIRGINIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN, WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER
BACK INTO THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. AS IT DEPARTS TO
THE EAST, RAIN WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID-
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. IN TOTAL, A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
FLOODING ISSUES.
BEYOND TODAY, AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXPECT A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN. SOME OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE SEE
DURING BREAKS IN THE RAIN. BY 12Z, RAIN WILL HAVE MOSTLY ENDED
AT KHTS AND KPKB. OTHER TERMINALS FARTHER TO THE EAST WILL SEE
RAIN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 15-16Z. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (16-18Z).
EXPECT A WINDY DAY TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST REACHING 20 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVING CEILINGS THIS
MORNING MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 04/05/26
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...26
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