391
FXUS61 KRLX 151854
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
254 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN A
STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SEVERE
STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FEEDING
INTO THE AREA FROM A GULF SYSTEM COULD ALSO ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) QUIET START TO THE WORK WEEK WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY A
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- 2) A STRONGER SYSTEM BRINGS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM A GULF SYSTEM COULD ALSO HEIGHTEN
THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD POP UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST FRINGE
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SUPPORT MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS, ARRIVES AS A
SHORTWAVE STEERS A FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS SOME
MODELS INTRODUCE DRIER AIR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE
OTHERS MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF A
WARM FRONT. SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF ACTIVITY
WERE TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, THEN ACTIVITY CONTINUES AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR
THURSDAY COULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND/OR ACTIVITY THAT
OCCURS EARLIER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM A
GULF SYSTEM COULD ALSO HEIGHTEN THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING FOR A QUIETER
FINISH TO THE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AMID SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, MVFR MAY LINGER AT A TERMINAL OR
TWO IN SOME LOWER CLOUDS (AROUND 2-3KFT). ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG TONIGHT, WITH IFR OR
WORSE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AREA WIDE VFR WILL THEN RETURN ONCE FOG DISSIPATES
AFTER SUNRISE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME CALM AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN LIGHT ON TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT
MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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