188
FXUS63 KIWX 180455
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1255 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS
OF POOR AIR QUALITY AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
- HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG LAKE MI BEACHES
IN BERRIEN COUNTY, MI AND LA PORTE COUNTY, IN BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE SWIM RISK CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EARLIER IN THE DAY. DANGEROUS WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MAJOR AIR
QUALITY IMPACTS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. EPA SENSORS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN SAMPLING VERY
UNHEALTHY TO HAZARDOUS PM2.5 DUE TO THE SMOKE. IT IS ADVISED TO
STAY INDOORS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE IN THESE CONDITIONS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, COUPLED WITH SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW (THEN
BECOMING WEST TONIGHT), WILL HELP TO NUDGE THE SMOKE SLOWLY OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THIS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FOR
TOMORROW, BUT MOST AREAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
GL TOMORROW NIGHT WILL RESTRENGTHEN THE SMOKE CONVEYER BELT, FOR
A LACK OF BETTER WORDS, AND SUNDAY WE COULD HAVE REINVIGORATED
SMOKE IMPACTS. MONDAY, WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP SUNDAY'S SMOKE HANGING AROUND.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE NICE BREAK FROM SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO COME
TO AN END. FOR TODAY, A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS (STRONG
WINDS IS THE MAIN THREAT WHERE MIXED LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE THE
STRONGEST) WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AREAS GENERALLY FORT-WAYNE
SOUTHWARD. AS OF THIS WRITING, MORE ROBUST CONVECTION HAS
INITIATED OVER LAFAYETTE, IN AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS
WAY EAST-NORTHEAST. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH TODAY, SO WE EXPECT A GOOD MAJORITY OF
THE CWA TO GET WETTING RAIN.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY BRINGS MORE SMOKE
DOWN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL DRAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS, 850MB
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30KT AND CAPE VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 2500-3000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT, LOW-LEVEL HELICITY WILL BE MARGINALLY
ADEQUATE (75-100 M^2/S^2)) TO PRODUCE A QUICK SPIN-UP TORNADO.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER TOMORROW, WE CAN SAY GOODBYE TO
TEMPS IN THE 90S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE RETURN TO A MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN. ACTUALLY, WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S. THIS
WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF A POTENT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR AREA UNDER A D4/D5 SLIGHT RISK.
STAY TUNED TO SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR THE LATEST ON THAT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z SAT. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AFTER THIS TIME AND BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AS IT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
EVENING PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM DOWNPOURS
ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 21Z SAT FOR
KSBN AND AFTER 01Z SUN FOR KFWA. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY
FOR BOTH TAF SITES BEFORE A SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY POST
FRONTAL. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITHIN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ078>081-
177-277.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR LMZ046.
DISCUSSION...NORMAN
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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