030
FXUS63 KIWX 281014
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
614 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND QUITE
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY, WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
- THE NEXT CHANCE (50-70%) OF RAIN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY IS LOW BUT IT DOES
APPEAR TO TREND TOWARD COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
THE AREA IS BOOKENDED BY TWO AREAS OF VORTICITY TO START THIS
MONDAY, BUT THE STALLED PATTERN SHEARS OUT THE VORTICITY TO OUR WEST
AND THE NOR'EASTER OVER THE NORTHEAST PUSHES OUT TO SEA DURING THE
DAY TODAY. THIS LEAVES THE AREA UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID
LEVEL RIDGING SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY AND KEEPING THE AREA DRY TODAY.
THIS CONTINUES A 3 DAY STREAK OF SEEING MINRH VALUES REACH 30
PERCENT OVERHEAD INDICATING HOW DRY IT HAS GOTTEN EACH DAY. WE
SECURELY REACHED INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MUCH OF OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES AND PORTIONS OF NW OH SAW 75F HIGHS. THIS
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND SEASONABLE HIGHS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR TODAY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS (SOME AREAS
MAY STRETCH INTO THE UPPER 70S) AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S THAT
MAY ATTEMPT TO MIX BACK INTO THE 40S DURING PEAK HEATING. THE
ONE THING THAT COULD STOP MIXING TODAY IS SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD.
AT THE SAME TIME, A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US AND PUSHES
EASTWARD. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SHEARS OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND A CUTOFF LOW FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES THE
STRONGER VORTICITY TO PASS BY NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER JET
DYNAMICS RESIDE. THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR TUESDAY AND HELPS
TREND WEDNESDAY AWAY FROM BEING WET TO MORE OF A DRY DAY. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AT BEH INDICATE A VERY DRY LAYER BELOW 850 MB THROUGH ALL
OF WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL CANADA PUSHES A
TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD AND THIS HELPS PUSH THE SHEARED OUT VORTICITY
INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO PUSHES BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE
AREA AND SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ON FINALLY GETTING A RETURN TO
RAIN. EVEN STILL, SURFACE MOISTURE DOESN'T APPEAR AS HYDRATED AS IT
COULD BE, INSTABILITY IS VERY LOW, AND THE TROUGH IS RATHER
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY INDICATING RAIN THAT DOESN'T
APPEAR ALL THAT HEAVY.
NOW THAT THAT TROUGH IS THROUGH THE AREA BY DAY'S END FRIDAY, THE
CUTOFF LOW DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST DOESN'T HAVE THE NECESSARY KICK TO
GET IT UP TO THE AREA AND SO IT CONTINUES TO REMAIN DOWN IN THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON WHETHER
TO BRING THE ENERGY/MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND.
EVEN THE AIGFS IS BETWEEN THE TWO IN A CAMP CLOSER TO THE CMC, WHICH
BRINGS IT INTO THE AREA EARLY, BUT KEEPS IT SOUTH OF THE STORM TRACK
OF THE ECMWF.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AREA DRY
AND IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE HIGH, TRAJECTORIES WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ012-013-020-203.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...ROLLER
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