882
FXUS63 KIWX 290953
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
553 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE SPOTTY SHOWERS CREEP INTO AREAS NORTH OF
US-6 ON WEDNESDAY, A MAJORITY OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AROUND AN
INCH IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. NO SEVERE WEATHER OR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
- A WARMING TREND TAKES MID TO UPPER 70 DEGREE HIGH TEMPS TODAY
INTO THE 80S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF US-30 BY THURSDAY.
- TRENDS ARE TOWARDS A DRY AND COOLER WEEKEND WHICH LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST UNDERNEATH MID LEVEL RIDGING
AND THIS KEEPS THE AREA DRY ONCE AGAIN. ONE THING THAT DOES HAPPEN,
THOUGH, IS THAT WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES BRINGING A RETURN TO UPPER
CLOUDINESS FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WARM ADVECTION ALSO
HELPS SOUTHERN AREAS GET INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREE
HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE BECAUSE THE
VORTICITY IS MORE FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AS OPPOSED TO
OVERHEAD. THE BEST OF THE INSTABILITY (STILL LESS THAN 100
J/KG OF MUCAPE) FINALLY ARRIVES AROUND 00Z IN OUR NORTHWEST, BUT
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE STILL BELOW 60F AND THE BEST FORCING HAS
MOVED MORE NORTHEASTWARD INSTEAD OF EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MI. ALL OF THIS TO SAY THAT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN GETS INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LOW, IF NOT NON-EXISTENT.
THIS IS WHY WE HAVE GOOD CHANCES TO SEE THOSE 80 DEGREE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY IS THAT, DESPITE CLOUD COVER, WE HAVE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES
DOWN SOUTH THERE. BY THE TIME WE GET TO THURSDAY, THE STALLED FRONT
TO OUR WEST SLIDES EASTWARD SLOWLY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT IS OUR BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OF THIS RAINY PERIOD AS THE
NAM BRINGS THROUGH AREAS OF INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE.
RAIN MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE, THE TREND WILL BE TO
DRY OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN.
THIS DRY PERIOD ALSO LOOKS TO LAST A WHILE AS THE LATER
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCE DOESN'T HAVE MUCH MODEL
AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT. SO, A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
THROUGH AND THE AREA REMAINS UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AS A
RESULT.
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, TREND LOWER,
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOG FORM THIS MORNING THAT'S NOT AS DENSE AS
YESTERDAY MORNING'S. EVEN STILL THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AT LEAST
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT ONE OR BOTH OF THE TERMINALS. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PERHAPS FWA IS MORE SHALLOW GROUND FOG, WHEREAS
SBN GETS DENSER FOG. HOWEVER, LAV GUIDANCE INDICATES IT'S FWA THAT
GETS THE DENSER FOG. THIS CREATES QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THESE TAFS. AT THIS POINT, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS, HAVE GONE WITH TEMPO MVFR FOG UP TO 13Z.
OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST UNDERNEATH MID
LEVEL RIDGING AND THIS KEEPS THE AREA RAIN-FREE ONCE AGAIN AND CLOUD
FREE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF PERIOD. ONE THING THAT DOES
HAPPEN, THOUGH, IS THAT WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES BRINGING A RETURN
TO UPPER CLOUDINESS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTH WINDS
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING, STAYING BELOW 10 KTS
SUSTAINED THROUGH THE DAY AGAIN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...ROLLER
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