425
FXUS63 KIWX 311846
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
246 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL FEATURE INCREASING CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020
VERY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TIGHT THETA-E GRADIENT
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF RETURNING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLD
OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WAA SURGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A NW FLOW
IMPULSE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME. RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME, HIGHEST
NORTH, AS MORE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON LEADING EDGE OF
LLJ CORE BYPASSES NORTH. TRENDING WARMER OTHERWISE INTO MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020
WARM SECTOR BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON TUESDAY IN WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT'S
WARM FRONT MAKING FOR A HOT/BREEZY DAY. ATTENTION BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL TURN TO CONVECTION UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN BRIEF RING OF FIRE SETUP. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD TAKE AIM AT OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN IN/OH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE COULD BE A DAY 4
SEVERE RISK IF THIS TIMES OUT JUST RIGHT AND THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM
GROWS UPSCALE WITH AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS FCST RANGE BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR GOING FORWARD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T
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