439
FXUS63 KIWX 061033
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
633 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP TODAY WITH GREATEST COVERAGE (30-50%) ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST
OHIO AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE 24 IN NORTHERN INDIANA.
- SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY, BUT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN THAT OF YESTERDAY.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
A STAGNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY WITH CONTINUED
POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH JUST
SOME LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR NE IN/SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MI IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME WEAK DEFORMATION FORCING.
ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES JUST DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AS FAR WEST AS
LUCAS/WOOD COUNTIES. THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT MINIMUM ACROSS FAR NW
OHIO THIS MORNING WILL ONLY SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD TODAY,
REACHING EASTERN LAKE ERIE VICINITY BY THIS EVENING. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAIL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING AGAIN TODAY WITH MOST FAVORED AREAS
ALONG THIS TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. PWATS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE TODAY, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES
WILL BE MORE MUTED WITH MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG.
DEEP LAYER/SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE WEAK TODAY WITH SLOW
MEAN STORM MOTIONS.
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED
AS FOCUS FOR STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL HAVE
SHIFTED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS TODAY, NOT
EXPECTING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT
AS YESTERDAY. ONE ITEM THAT MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED A LITTLE
LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL OF HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO. LOW LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL HEIGHT MINIMUM TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME AUGMENTED IN NORTHWARD EXTENT BY WARM WATERS
OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE (APPROXIMATELY WARMEST 80 TO 90 CLIMO
PERCENTILE WITH 78 TO 80 DEGREE WATER TEMPS). THESE VERY WARM
LAKE WATERS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RIDGE OF THE
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION AND SHOULD HELP TO CREATE RESULTANT
STRONGER FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. THIS SETUP SHOULD HELP CREATE SOME HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE, BUT THERE IS A GOOD DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR INLAND THIS WOULD OCCUR WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER TOTALS CLOSER TO THE LAKE. ANY
LINGERING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SAGS SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG ACROSS FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHERE SOME
HIGHER CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
FOG REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS WILL BE WEAK EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT
INCREASED INSOLATION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO WARM BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S MOST AREAS FOR TUE-WED
WITH DEW POINTS MORE IN CHECK IN THE 60S.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA
TODAY WILL TOP THE LONGWAVE RIDGE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS DAMPENING OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTIVE FORCING BY LATE WED/THU. GIVEN
INITIALLY MORE SUPPRESSED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT, HAVE
SOME SUSPICION STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
MORE FAVORED AREA FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR THU-FRI MAY BE MOST
FAVORED JUST SOUTHWEST/SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED
PREVIOUS HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE ADVECTIVE
FORCING NATURE TO THIS SCENARIO HOWEVER FOR THU-FRI. THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO WATCH GOING FORWARD AS AT LEAST THERE WILL BE
SOME STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW BY LATE WORK WEEK. THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A WELCOME BREAK FOR FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK TO ALLOW
SOME AREAS TO RECOVER FROM THE RECENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR THE LONGER TERM PERIODS NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS
WITH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DEPICTING AN AMPLIFYING
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DESPITE AGREEMENT IN THE
GENERAL NATURE OF THIS AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE PATTERN, INDIVIDUAL
GEFS MEMBERS EXHIBIT VERY LARGE DISCREPANCY IN UPSTREAM LONGWAVE
RIDGE AMPLITUDE AND POSITION WHICH WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON
DOWNSTREAM TEMP/PRECIP FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER
PERTURBATIONS DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
COMBINED WITH THIS SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT
IN A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SINKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NE INDIANA TODAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED CLOSER AND JUST NORTHWEST OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER ACROSS EXTREME NE IN/NW OH , WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM AFFECTING KFWA AREA MIDDAY THROUGH MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED
TODAY, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT TERMINALS.
AS A RESULT, WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 SHRA MENTION AT KFWA DURING
THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE FOR TODAY, INITIAL IFR/MVFR CIGS AT TERMINALS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR TODAY, WITH EARLIER IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AT
KSBN. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AT
KFWA DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY SOME PATCHY STRATUS/PATCHY SHALLOW FOG COULD
REDEVELOP AT KFWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI
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