796
FXUS63 KIWX 130611
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
211 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH RECORD
OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. TUESDAY MAY ALSO
APPROACH RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE.
- ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF GREATER RAIN SHOWER CHANCES (40-70%)
ARRIVE IN TWO WAVES, ONE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER WAVE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
- TURNING MUCH COOLER FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER WI, WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST
REACHING NORTHERN LK HURON BY 18Z TUE. A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY
HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS, BUT SO FAR
THESE HAVE REMAINED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT TRAILS THE
LOW INTO EASTERN IA. THIS WILL BE OUR FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT AS IT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. WE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WITH ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S. BIT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT OVERALL WARMING AND KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING
TOO OUT OF HAND. THAT BEING SAID, RECORDS AT FWA (84 IN 1975 AND
1899) AND SBN (86 SET IN 1975) COULD BE IN JEOPARDY.
INCREASING MOISTURE BEGINS TO ARRIVE WEST OF THE AREA ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS IL/IA AND THEN
DRIFTING EAST ALONG THE STALLING FRONT. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP WHERE THE GREATEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXISTS
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT
EAST AND IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE RAP/HRRR FASTER (NEAR/AFTER 6Z) AND NAM CLOSER TO 12Z. HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO LIKELY AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS LIKELY (UNLESS THE NAM
WORKS OUT). SHOWALTERS INDICATE A PLUME OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY, BUT
LIMITED LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WHICH SHOULD KEEP THUNDER CHANCES ON
THE LOWER SIDE. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WED EVENING AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND WAVE MOVES AWAY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE LARGER TROUGH WHICH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
SW US. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE FINALLY COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT ON
PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES AND EVENTUAL
CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING NEAR/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN THURS AFTERNOON
INTO THURS EVENING BEFORE DRY SLOW WORKS IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A
BREEZY DAY WILL BE IN STORE FRIDAY AS NW WINDS WRAP AROUND THE LOW
AND USHER IN COLDER AIR FOR FRI AND SAT.
ANY COLD AIR SHOULD BE BRIEF AS PATTERN BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
ELEVATED WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY BUT RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ENSURE VFR
CONDITIONS. NOCTURNAL LLJ SUPPORTING SOME MARGINAL LLWS AT KSBN
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BUT LLJ IS WEAKER OVER KFWA AND WILL
THEREFORE CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF INCLUDING LLWS THERE. WSW WINDS
MAY GUST 20-25 KTS DURING PEAK AFTERNOON MIXING, HIGHEST AT
KFWA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARRIVES EARLY
WED MORNING BUT LIKELY JUST OUTSIDE THIS FORECAST WINDOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD
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