190
FXUS63 KIWX 192322
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
622 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S TODAY, AND THE LOW-MID 50S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A CHANCE (20-60%) FOR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF US 24.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
CLEARING LINE OF EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK CAME TO A HALT NORTH OF THE
MI/IN STATE LINE AND IS UNLIKELY TO BUDGE ANY FURTHER FOR THE TIME
BEING. EVEN IF IT WAS CLEARING OUT, MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING
IN FROM THE WEST TO LIMIT (WELL AT LEAST DIM) ANY SUNSHINE. AFTER
SUNSET, THE STRATUS SHOULD EXPAND BACK NORTH SOMEWHAT AS THE
INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE OVERALL ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH A
WEAK TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF MI THAT WILL LIKELY DO LITTLE MORE
THAN KEEP THE CLOUD COVER AROUND. ONE PLUS WILL BE A SHIFT TO SW
WINDS AND A QUICK SHOT OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR (HIGHS IN THE 50S),
BUT DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THIS COULD BE HAMPERED
SOMEWHAT. MODEL BLENDS ARE KEEPING SOME SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES, BUT THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY YET SO BEST CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, STILL MIXED SIGNALS
IN THE MODELS AS TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SLOW
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL EJECT NE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL RUN INTO THE STRONGER UPPER LOW CENTERED
SOUTH OF JAMES BAY RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR NORTH ANY
PRECIP WILL MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
HAVE NOT DEVIATED FROM MODEL BLEND WHICH KEEPS HIGHEST POPS SOUTH.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEAKER SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY, YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND
THEN SLOWLY EDGE EAST INTO NEXT WEEK. AS IT DOES, A STRONG NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEKEND AND
APPROACH NORTH DAKOTA BY MID WEEK. AT THE MOMENT, TIMING OF THESE 2
FEATURES IS SEPARATED ENOUGH TO LIKELY LIMIT PHASING, BUT BOTH WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD BRING AT LEAST
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEK, BUT POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC
RANGE FOR NOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ON THE
HEELS OF A DEPARTING AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS IS
NORMALLY WHERE THE WAA AREA MOVES IN. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
TRAPPING MOISTURE BELOW IT AND CREATING MVFR CIGS, WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED BY TIMES OF MVFR VISBY OBSTRUCTIONS IN THE FORM OF HAZE AS
WINDS STAY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THESE MVFR VISBY READINGS ARE ALREADY
BEING OBSERVED IN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SBN ALSO OBSERVED THEM
AS EARLY AS 19Z. WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CIGS INTO MUCH OF THU FOR
BOTH TAF SITES, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE WE SEE SOME MODERATION BY THE
TIME WE GET INTO PEAK HEATING PERIOD THU AND THE HAZE MAY MODERATE
EARLIER, BY LATER MORNING THU. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME IFR
CIGS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU AS WELL.
WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER
STARTING OUT OF THE EAST, BUT MAGNITUDES WILL CONTINUE TO STAY LESS
THAN 10 KTS SUSTAINED.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...ROLLER
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