770
FXUS63 KIWX 300609
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
209 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
MODERATION CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN SHOWERS (50-80%) MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- FROST MAY IMPACT SENSITIVE VEGETATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
A COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF AN UPPER LOW MEANDERING EAST TOWARD THE
QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. FOCUS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS ON SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER SC MI AND NW OH. THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS TETHERED TO AN INVERTED TROUGH LINGERING ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF A SMALLER SCALE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. THE BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE EAST SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TODAY,
LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS AND A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE
BULK OF THE DAY IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20 MPH BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
THE NEXT BOUT OF PVA AND CORRIDORS OF ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE APPEARS MORE ENERGETIC WITH HIGHER
POPS (50-70%)/QPF (UP TO 0.30") FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
WEAK RIDGING DOES BUILD IN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING
A BREAK FROM THE DAILY RAIN CHANCES. CHILLY AIR MASS WELL
ESTABLISHED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES BRING A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO REBOUND
CLOSER TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS RETURN WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF THE WEAK SFC RIDGE AND IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL US.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN RELEASES THIS FEATURE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND HEAVIER RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS LOCKED IN THROUGH DAYBREAK AT KFWA,
WHILE LATEST SATELLITE/OB TRENDS SHOWING THIS CLOUD DECK ALREADY
CLEARING KSBN TO THE EAST. COULD SEE THIS FILL BACK IN FOR A
TIME HERE EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS LOW. PRIMARILY VFR THEN AT BOTH SITES THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. RAIN SHOWERS AND
REDUCTIONS BACK INTO LOW VFR OR MVFR THEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS THROUGH.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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