227
FXUS63 KIWX 070448
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1248 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE UPCOMING 7 DAYS WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED STRUGGLE BETWEEN
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS VS WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL OCCURRING WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY CLEARLY THE DIVIDING LINE BEING
REPRESENTED BY AN ARE OF STRATUS/STRATOCU FROM E IA INTO SW IL AND
TO CENTRAL KY. THE MUGGY 70+ DEWPOINTS ARE TO THE WEST OF THIS AND
60S (EVENTUALLY SOME 50) DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH TIME, THIS
HIGHER MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WORK BACK, ARRIVING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN US DISTURBANCE SET TO
FLATTEN THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SURGE BACK NORTH.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RETURN BACK INTO THE 60S WITH SOME MED RANGE MODELS
SUGGESTING SOME 70S AS WELL. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME FINER DETAILS STILL NEED
TO BE WORKED OUT REGARDING COVERAGE, INTENSITY AND TIMING. MODEL
BLENDS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSERVATIVE IN PAST DAYS, BUT HAVE BEGAN TO
INTRODUCE LIKELY (60 TO 70%) POPS WITH DECAYING PRECIP WED MORNING
NW AND RENEWED DEVELOPMENT SE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD
FALL ONCE AGAIN AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT WAVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, WHICH
RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY NW OF THE AREA. LOWER POPS EXIST IN
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER LAKE HURON, TAFS CARRY ON
LARGELY UNCHANGED. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY STRATUS
OFF LAKE ERIE THAT MAY ATTEMPT TO SEEP INTO KFWA NEAR DAYBREAK.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...BROWN
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