961
FXUS63 KIWX 240716
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
316 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT.
- ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 TO AROUND 80
THROUGH MONDAY.
- DRY THIS WEEKEND THEN NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL NEXT WEEK IS LIKELY TO PROLONG RIVER
FLOODING AND KEEP NUMEROUS RIVERS ABOVE "ACTION" STAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES IN THE PW AXIS THAT WILL BE TRANSLATING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. THESE HIGH VALUES
SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES THAT ARE LIKELY TO REACH UP TO 3"/HR;
HOWEVER, THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOOD POTENTIAL,
THERE IS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS EXPANDED THE "MARGINAL" SEVERE RISK WEST TO INCLUDE ALMOST
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE PARCELS
SHOULD REACH AN EQL OF ABOUT 25K FEET. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH
DAYTIME HEATING FAVORS WIND GUSTS REACHING BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BETWEEN 3P AND 9P EDT.
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ON THE 00Z RUN REACH AS HIGHS AS +10C.
THESE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SUPPORT HIGH FROM AROUND 70 TO 80
DEGREES. A MILD BUT WET PATTERN IS FARTHER AHEAD EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECT EAST AND NORTHEAST OUT OF
SOME DEEPER TROFFING UPSTREAM. THE MODEL BLEND HAS THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD. TWO
ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT KSBN WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING
AROUND 12-15Z AND THE SECOND ARRIVING ROUGHLY 18-21Z. THUNDER
CHANCES ARE A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE SECOND ROUND BUT STILL
OVERALL LOW FOR BOTH. AT KFWA, THUNDERSTORMS ARE MUCH MORE
LIKELY AND FOCUSED IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW. RELATIVELY DRY LOW
LEVELS SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS,
THOUGH.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN/SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD
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