094
FXUS63 KIWX 241833
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
233 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE ARE CHANCES (60-80 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY
ALONG/WEST OF IN-15. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
- RAIN AND ISOLATED T-STORM CHANCES PERSIST ON AND OFF THROUGH
MID-LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 THU PM
INTO SAT AM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND
LOW-MID 90S MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LED TO
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS (ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING). SPC CLIPS OUR
WESTERN FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT (SLIGHT RISK NEAR LA PORTE/STARKE,
COUNTIES, IN). IN THIS AREA WE WILL HAVE SOME AVAILABLE SFC
INSTABILITY (500-1500 J/KG) AND AROUND 30-40KTS OF BULK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY PALTRY--SO I SUSPECT
THIS MAY KEEP OUR STORMS LIMITED (AROUND 5.5-6 C/KM). CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN SHOWERS MAY ALSO LIMIT OUR ABILITY TO HEAT UP IN THE NORTH
AND WEST, SO WE'LL SEE HOW MUCH WE CAN RECOVER IN TERMS OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY LATER.
IF WE DO GET STRONG-SEVERE STORMS IT WILL BE TOWARDS THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, PROBABLY 6-11 PM EDT. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD AND WE LOSE OUR DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY.
IF ANY STORMS DO BECOME SEVERE, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. IF STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SUPERCELLULAR FURTHER
WEST AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA, WE DO HAVE A 2% TORNADO RISK (15-20KTS
OF 0-1KM SHEAR)...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS PRETTY LOW. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND VARIABLE CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S, LOW 60S.
CHANCES (20-30 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.
ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSS THE AREA ON
LATE THU PM INTO SATURDAY AM, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/SOUTH OF US 30 (60-80
PERCENT). ELSEWHERE, EXPECT AROUND 20-50 PERCENT CHANCES. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID-UPPER 70S, LOW 80S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S, LOW-MID 90S (ESP.
TUE/WED). THERE ARE SOME LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THIS PERIOD (20-30 PERCENT)-ESPECIALLY LATE SAT PM-SUN AM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
DESPITE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL EXCEPT PERHAPS IN
ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES ARE LACKING
FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CAMS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASED ACTIVITY NEAR SBN THIS EVENING. WIND WILL REMAIN LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THEN SHIFT WESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND 12 KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...COBB
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