783
FXUS63 KIWX 251822
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
222 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
-NOT AS HOT BY MIDWEEK AND MAINLY DRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
ANOTHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON ON THE FRINGE OF NORTHEAST US HIGH
PRESSURE. STRATUS AS SEEPED INTO OUR AREA FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST WHICH HE LIMITED TEMPERATURES TOWARD
MONTICELLO AND LOGANSPORT. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON SUNDAY (CLOUD
DEBRIS PERMITTING) AS UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AS A STRONG RIDGE TO
OUR WEST NOSES IN.
STATUS QUO ONCE MORE FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. 12Z CAM RUNS REMAIN SPLIT ON ANY CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE HRRR AND FV3 PERHAPS APPEARING AS OUTLIERS WITH ROBUST
CONVECTION WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT RIPE FOR CONVECTION AWAITING AN AMPLE TRIGGER.
CAPE WILL BE PLENTIFUL, EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT GREATER
THAN 1,500 J/KG, 0-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS, AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM. THE POSSIBILITY OF DECAYING CONVECTION OVER
FAR NORTHEAST IOWA SUNDAY MORNING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS ANY
OUTFLOW OR LINGERING MCV COULD SERVE AS A FORCING MECHANISM FOR OUR
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PRECEDING AFD, THE
THUNDERSTORM RISK IS CONFINED TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONSISTING
PRIMARILY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS
OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT IS STILL LOW GIVEN A GENERAL ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION IN MOST CAMS, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY WAVE THE "ALL CLEAR"
FLAG GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED MESOSCALE NUANCES TO COME SUNDAY.
SIMILARLY, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THINKING TO MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
PERHAPS A BETTER CONCENSUS THAT THIS ROUND IS THE ONE TO WATCH FOR
OUR AREA NOW THAT THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE IS FARTHER EAST. AGAIN, THE
DEVIL IS IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT REMAIN TO BE SEEN. HIGH
PRESSURE DESCENDS FROM CENTRAL CANADA LATER TUESDAY AND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OFFERING A BREAK FROM HOT AND STORMY CONDITIONS. THE
WESTERN US RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE, BUT TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES KEEPS TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME JUST WEST OF THE TERMINALS WILL SLOWLY
ADVECT EASTWARD TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH DEGREE
OF SPREAD IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONCERNING EXACT CEILING HEIGHTS
AND FOG POTENTIAL. HELD WITH CONSERVATIVE MVFR FORECAST FOR NOW
BUT IFR IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. CLEARING EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WELL AFTER
THIS FORECAST WINDOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...AGD
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