836
FXUS63 KIWX 241722
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
BETWEEN 3-9 PM EDT.
- DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER COMES MONDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF DEVELOPING
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.
THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO OUR AREA AND
MAY INTENSIFY WITH BETTER DAYTIME HEATING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WAA HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE
MID 70S SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO SURGED INTO
THE UPPER 50S. DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UP TO 500-1000
J/KG OF SBCAPE. SPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ALONG AND EAST OF IN-15. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT TODAY, DESPITE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER AND A LACK OF ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA AND INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN
3-9 PM EDT. PWATS OF 1.25"-1.5" ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN IN ANY STORMS, ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT A FLOODING THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS DIMINISH AND PRECIPITATION SUBSIDES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT, GIVING WAY TO A CALM AND DRY WEEKEND AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S BOTH DAYS WITH CAA FROM PREVAILING NORTHERLY WINDS.
CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO INCREASE THAT THERE COULD BE A BETTER,
MORE WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVES WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY, WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEEPENING AS IT
LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM'S
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SPARK SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WEST OF OUR
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THIS CONVECTION (LIKELY AN
ORGANIZED QLCS OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS) IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT
APPEARS CONVECTION COULD GET INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA BETWEEN
22Z TO 02Z. I DO WANT TO NOTE THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD MAKE ALL
THE DIFFERENCE ON IF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS. THE GFS HAS A
SLIGHTLY FASTER SETUP THAN THE ECMWF, WHICH LENDS ITSELF TO A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO TAP INTO. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN ON
EXACT TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT THE ENVIRONMENT HERE WILL BE
FAVORABLE, BUT SPC DOES HAVE AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN THEIR DAY 4 SEVERE OUTLOOK.
WHETHER OR NOT OUR AREA GETS SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON IF THE SYSTEM'S ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTS FAR
ENOUGH NORTH ON MONDAY AND IF THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO GET HERE
BEFORE INSTABILITY WANES AND WE LOSE OUR DAYTIME HEATING.
DESPITE A LOSS OF INSTABILITY AFTER SUNSET (ONLY 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE), THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A DECENT SETUP GIVEN ~40 KTS OF
BULK SHEAR AND ~150 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
A MOISTURE AXIS, INITIALLY DISCONNECTED WITH INSTABILITY ENTERED THE
AREA THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALLOWS FOR BETTER OVERLAP BETWEEN THE
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THIS ALLOWS FOR
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR INDICATES SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE AROUND SBN AROUND INITIATION AROUND 18Z AND
THE SHOWER/STORM THREAT CONTINUES TO 00 TO 02Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY START AN HOUR OR TWO LATER AROUND FWA AND MAY LAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD SO THAT THE SEVERE
THREAT VACATES SBN AFTER A FEW HOURS, BUT FWA'S THREAT LASTS UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET. SOME 2 TO 4SM VIS RESTRICTIONS AND MVFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STORMS MOVING THROUGH. SPC'S
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK STARTS RIGHT ON SBN AND EXTENDS
EASTWARD MAINLY EAST OF US-31 FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE MID LEVELS, LOW LEVELS DEVELOP AN INVERSION, AND IF
THERE'S ANY LINGERING MOISTURE FROM DEVELOPING RAIN, THERE COULD BE
SOME STRATUS OR FOG THAT DEVELOPS. THERE'S A LARGE DISTRIBUTION IN
SOLUTIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THOUGH SO LOW CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN THE PREVIOUS HAZARD OCCURRING, ESPECIALLY FOR SBN.
GIVEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, GUSTY WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UP UNTIL THUNDERSTORM APPROACH. EXPECT TRAJECTORIES TO BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL AFTER THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS, THEN, VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ROLLER
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