351
FXUS63 KIWX 061039
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
639 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
(20-50%) WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE
MAIN CONCERN.
- ADDITIONAL, POTENTIALLY HIGHER, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY EVOLVE LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY
INCREASE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EXACT LOCATION OF GREATEST
CONCERN.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT HAS DRIFTED SE LITTLE MORE THAN 100
MILES WITH A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF IT AND
DRIER, MORE STABLE TO THE NORTH. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY SLOW OVERALL
MOVEMENT AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS REMAINS QUITE LOW AS ANY
INCREASE IN CONVECTION WILL NEED ASSISTANCE OF ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES. EVENTUALLY, THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLOWLY WASHOUT
LATER FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. CAMS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH POPS
AND QPF. GIVEN THE CONCERNS NOTED, HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLGT CHC
TO CHC POPS INTO FRIDAY AND DEFER ANY INCREASE TO LATER
FORECASTS IF TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. PWATS OF 1.75" OR HIGHER
WILL YIELD A SMALL RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH AREAS THAT SEE
TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS SEEING SOME LIMITED FLOODING CONCERNS
POSSIBLE. WPC HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES LATER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY,
BUT EVENTUALLY ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL SETUP ACROSS THE REGION
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING. WHILE
CHC TO LIKELY POPS EXIST IN THE LATER PERIODS, CONFIDENCE ON
LOCATION, TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN LOW THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
SOME PATCHY, LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO KSBN DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. VSBYS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE AT
SURROUNDING SITES SO HAVE OPTED FOR A TEMPO GROUP WITH EXPECTED
IMPROVEMENT. OTHERWISE, LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH REGARDS TO
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO BOTH SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN THE PROB30 FOR NOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER
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