262
FXUS63 KIWX 191922
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
322 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO BE THE WEATHER STORY THROUGH TODAY. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORM IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH BEHIND THESE STORMS, SENDING OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS SHY OF 60 DEGREES. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN IS TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED OVER THE AREA AND IS STARTING
TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH TIME. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A FEW
EMBEDDED ENHANCED ECHOS THE MAIN IMPACTS HAVE BEEN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW WIND GUSTS INTO THE 40MPH RANGE. WEAK UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WITH THIS FIRST ROUND HAVE BEEN EASILY SHEARED APART.
CLEARING LINE OF CLOUDS IS QUICKLY ENCROACHING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK JUMP IN TEMPS OF
3-5 DEGREES. LOOKING ACROSS EASTERN IL, DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED
IN THE MID-60S AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID-70S.
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST INTO SOUTHERN IL, LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN IL DEVELOPED ON THE INTERSECTION OF THESE
DEWPOINTS. THIS DEVELOPMENT ALSO CORRELATE WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TRAJECTORY
OF THIS JET REGION WOULD BRING IT ACROSS OUR WESTERN/CENTRAL ZONES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS, COUPLED WITH ANY DESTABILIZATION
FROM THE CLEARING LINE, WILL HELP TO SUPPORT RENEWED/REINVIGORATE
CONVECTION. RADAR VAD PROFILES ACROSS IL SHOW MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW WITHIN THIS AREA OF DEVELOPING/ONGOING CONVECTION. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH INFLUENCE OF THE CLEARING LINE AS THE KIWX VAD PROFILE
DOES SHOW SOME VEERING IN THE LOWEST 1000M. IF THIS VEERING
PERSISTS DESPITE MIXING, THEN A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A TORNADO
WOULD EXIST. GREATER CONFIDENCE IS WITH A QUICK JUMP IN
TEMPERATURES, LOW LEVEL MIXING, AND VAD WINDS QUICKLY BECOMING
UNIDIRECTIONAL. PRIMARY HAZARD WITH STORMS REMAINS DAMAGING WIND.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, STRONGLY SHEARED STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO RESULT
IN MUCH OF A LARGE HAIL RISK.
FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS A WINDOW WHERE THE LIFTING JET EXIT REGION AND
THE FRONT OVERLAP TO STRENGTHEN CONVECTION. THE BEST AREA FOR THIS
OVERLAPPING WOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THIS IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE HRRR WITH A PROGRESSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION. THIS
LINE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE EXITING AROUND 03Z.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE NEAR TERM, BUT THE GENERAL THEME FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, WARMER THURS AND FRIDAY. LOCATION OF THE
BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL DICTATE
IF THURS/FRI HAVE CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019
PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH CEILINGS NEAR/AT MVFR CRITERIA WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS TO START OFF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS TO
ABOUT 30 KNOTS REMAIN IN PLAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
NEAR THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS OUTLINED IN
THE TEMPO GROUPS; THROUGH FWA REMAINS MORE LIKELY TO HAVE A
THUNDERSTORM COMPARED TO SBN. AFTER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT PASS THROUGH, VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH NEAR 12Z, BRINING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK TO THE TERMINALS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
SYNOPSIS...BROWN
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...BROWN
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