442
FXUS63 KIWX 272238
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
638 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A LOW
CHANCE (10-15%) OF A SHOWER.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THEN
WARMING AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
A ROGUE SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET AS ONE MORE WEAK
WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY (LESS THAN 1000 J/KG MUCAPE) AND LITTLE OVERALL
SHEAR.
OTHERWISE, AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD IS POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE EXISTING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND ON THIS
OCCURRING. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AND TRANSITION
MORE SW TO NE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN MORE WEST TO EAST AS A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES NORTH. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE REGION, THIS STILL LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO WEAK WAVES THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW
WILL RESIDE FAR ENOUGH WEST INTO SUNDAY TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES WEST
OF THE AREA WITH MAYBE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS DURING THE WORK WEEK. FORECAST WILL REMAIN RIDDLED
WITH PERIODS OF SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS
STRUGGLE TO HANDLE EACH OF THE WAVES.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY, SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S AND SOMEWHAT LOWER HUMIDITY SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BEGINS TO PUSH BACK IN WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MIDWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS RELAX AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06-12Z FRIDAY, BUT OPTED TO LEAVE
ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
IMPACTS BELOW VFR AT THE TERMINALS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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