686  
FXUS63 KIWX 062310  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
710 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS THIS EVENING ALONG/NORTH OF THE  
IN TOLL ROAD WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE NEXT  
7 DAYS.  
 
- TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM STARTING MONDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING  
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY MID TO LATE WEEK.  
 
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEASTERN  
LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN BERRIEN  
COUNTY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025  
 
ONLY WRINKLE IN AN OTHERWISE QUIET FORECAST WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE  
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION  
COURTESY OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY  
POPPED WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN WEST CENTRAL LOWER MI, BUT  
CLOUD BASES AROUND 7 KFT AND LARGE T/TD DEPRESSIONS LIMITING PRECIP  
TO SPRINKLES AT BEST. SAME CHALLENGE EXISTS WITH THE MAIN WAVE,  
WHICH WILL BRING SOME INCREASED MOISTURE, BUT STILL SEEING HINTS OF  
SATURATION/DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING ABOVE 800 MB. THERE WILL  
DEFINITELY BE A LAKE ENHANCED RESPONSE WITH DELTA TS IN THE MID  
TEENS, IMPRESSIVE EQLS AOA 10 KFT AND 0-2 KM THETA E LAPSE RATES  
SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE NEGATIVE. A W TO NW 925 FLOW FAVORS ANY  
CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT STAYING NORTH OF US-6 WITH GREATEST CHANCES  
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP LIKELY STAYING IN FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI. IF  
MOISTURE WAS DEEPER, WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH GRR HAVE INCREASED POPS  
SOMEWHAT INTO CHC CATEGORY. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THIS MAY NOT BE  
HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS N BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES, BUT THE ANTICIPATED  
BATTLE WITH THE DRY AIR WARRANTS REMAINING CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.  
MAIN WINDOW WILL BE BETWEEN 2Z AND 7Z WITH A QUICK TAPER OFF IN  
PRECIP THERE AFTER.  
 
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S AS THE DEEP  
TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL NE. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY MORNING  
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, BUT AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED, SOME OF  
THE TRADITIONALLY COOL SPOTS IN HILLSDALE COUNTY COULD SEE A BRIEF  
VISIT WITH UPPER 30S. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS, TEMPERATURES WILL  
SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS (UPPER 70S) BY TUESDAY WITH  
THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE RATHER SPARSE WITH SOME 50 DEWPOINTS  
ARRIVING FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT ALSO SUBJECT TO MIXING OUT DURING  
PEAK HEATING. AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 35 TO 45% RANGE ARE  
EXPECTED, WHICH MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL DRYING OF FUELS AND ALSO  
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS TRYING TO TAKE HOLD EVEN  
FURTHER.  
 
ONE FINAL ELEMENT TO MONITOR WILL BE THE CONTINUATION FOR HAZARDOUS  
BEACH CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY AS THE W TO NW FLOW PERSISTS. WIND  
SPEEDS WON'T BE AS STRONG AS FRIDAY, BUT THE LONGEVITY OF THE  
OVERALL FLOW AND 5 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE TO  
HIGH SWIM RISK, WITH THE GREATEST CONCERNS ON THE BEACHES OF BERRIEN  
COUNTY WHERE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEACH WEBCAMS SHOWING THE COOL AIR MASS ALONG THE  
SHORES IS KEEPING MANY PEOPLE AWAY TO HOPEFULLY LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL  
ISSUES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025  
 
ALTOCU WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT BUT MORE DIURNAL, HIGH-  
BASED CU ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AIR AND DEEP MIXING  
WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO  
GRADUALLY RELAX EACH DAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.  
 
 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IN...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ177-  
277.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...FISHER  
AVIATION...AGD  
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