910
FXUS63 KIWX 231724
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
124 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET TODAY.
- BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 20 TO 25 MPH.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING ON
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A HIGH SWIM RISK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND STORMS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 30-60% CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WE ARE GETTING A TASTE OF FALL TODAY WITH CLOUDS, SHOWERS, BREEZY
CONDITIONS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES! A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS
DEPARTED THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ISOLATED LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM'S ATTENDANT MID LEVEL TROUGH
PIVOTS THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA. NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW AND DELTA
TS OF ~14C (WATER TEMPS ~24C, 10C AT 850MB TONIGHT) OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST A WEAK LAKE ENHANCED RESPONSE UNTIL
SUNSET. IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS, THE DEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF OUR NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 MPH THROUGH SUNSET. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 70S TODAY, ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING FOR SOUTHEAST LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR LA PORTE AND BERRIEN
COUNTIES THROUGH 11 PM EDT TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH SWIM RISK TODAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERATING 3 TO 5 FT WAVES. STRONG RIP AND
STRUCTURAL CURRENTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED! IF YOUR WEEKEND PLANS INCLUDE
HEADING TO THE BEACH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HEED ALL WARNINGS
FROM LIFEGUARDS AND STAY OUT OF THE WATER!
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST WITH BUILD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK. MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY AND
SEVERAL DAYS OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR REFRESHING
EARLY FALL-LIKE DAYS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 80; IT WILL BE GRADUALLY
WARMER INTO MIDWEEK AS THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD MODERATES. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT MEAN THAT SEVERAL CRISP MORNINGS ARE
AHEAD! GET THE PUMPKIN SPICE LATTES READY AS LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 50S!
WEDNESDAY IS A BIT WARMER AND HUMID WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND STORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. THERE ARE HAVE
30-60% CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US 30 CORRIDOR. THIS
SETUP LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WHERE THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS LOCATED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MICHIGAN SO
OUR AREA MISSES OUT ON THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. INSTABILITY
APPEARS DECENT BUT SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES MAY BE LACKING. WE
WILL MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS BUT AT THIS TIME, SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING RISKS ARE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, FOR KFWA THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 17Z TO 22Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS OUTCOME AND EVEN COVERAGE. BREEZY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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