522
FXUS63 KIWX 191931
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
331 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
WITH PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ESPECIALLY FOR OUR FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS.
- WIDESPREAD, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3"
ARE EXPECTED.
- COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
COOL WEATHER CONTINUES (HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S) WITH
A THICKENING CUMULUS DECK INTO THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SKIRTS OUR
AREA TO THE NORTH INTO SATURDAY EARLY MORNING HOURS. PERIODIC
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE DUE TO A BROAD
LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA.
WE WILL SEE A SHORT BREAK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND RIGHT NOW THERE IS QUESTION TO EXACTLY
WHERE THE CIRCULATION EXACTLY TRACKS. AS THE FURTHER NORTH THE
STORM TRACKS THE BETTER THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (PERHAPS
STRONG TO SEVERE) WOULD BE FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON CONSENSUS IS FOR A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WHICH
WOULD LOWER OUR CHANCES FOR THE STRONGER STORMS AND A BIT LESS
RAINFALL THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WITH THE CIRCULATION
DEFORMATION ZONE OVERHEAD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS A GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS THREAT FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A MARGINAL THREAT JUST ON
THE FRINGE OF WHITE COUNTY. WPC ALSO HAS OUR ENTIRE AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR DAY 3.
CURRENT THINKING IS TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LOCATIONS HITTING THE 3 INCH MARK. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BUT AGAIN WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE EXACT TRACK AS
THAT WILL DICTATE IF WE SEE HIGHER/LOWER AMOUNTS.
ANOTHER BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ARE A BIT SPARSE RIGHT NOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT IN THE COMING DAYS WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA. THIS
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER SYSTEM TO WATCH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH LATER TONIGHT WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW. DRY OTHERWISE WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING AND
BACKING MORE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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