840
FXUS63 KIWX 030838
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
338 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
- NUMEROUS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SEVERE STORMS NOT EXPECTED.
- THE RAIN RUNOFF WILL CAUSE RISES ON RIVERS WITH SOME RIVERS
EVENTUALLY REACHING ACTION OR FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
AT THE ONSET, A CHILLY EAST FLOW WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. DEW POINTS
WERE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS, ALTHOUGH SOME SURFACE MOISTURE WAS
TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. HAVE REMOVED
ALMOST ALL OF THE FREEZING RAIN BY DELAYING THE START OF
PRECIPITATION. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE MODELS WAS TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TOO FAST AND TOO FAR NORTH WHILE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING. OBSERVED PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AS OF 3AM EST WERE ALL ABOVE FREEZING. TO
SUMMARIZE, FEW IF ANY WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE
EXPECTED EARLY TODAY.
AN ALMOST UNPRECEDENTED MILD PATTERN WILL SET UP AND PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AT TIMES. IN ADDITION TO THE MILD PATTERN, WET CONDITIONS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE MILD TEMPERATURES. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN "NORMAL" FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
BECOME UNSEASONABLY MILD. THIS MILD PATTERN WILL PERSIST PAST
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NEXT TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES, AN EXTENDED WET PATTERN
WILL COEXIST WITH THE MILD WEATHER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL SKYROCKET ABOVE 1.00 INCH AND HOVER AROUND 1.25". PRECIP
WATER VALUES WILL REACH UP TO 1.40" AT TIMES PER GFS. THESE
VALUES WILL APPROACH 1.00 INCH ABOVE NORMAL. ANTECEDENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND LOW RIVER LEVELS WILL HELP DELAY ANY AREAL OR
RIVER FLOODING. AT THIS TIME, HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
GIVEN GENERALLY A LIGHTER RAIN INTENSITY OVER A LONGER PERIOD.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
1.75" OVER FAR SOUTH AREAS FROM MARION TO PORTLAND. MUCH LOWER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STEADILY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PERIOD WITH IFR LIKELY AT KFWA DURING THE DAY. IFR IS POSSIBLE
AT KSBN BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT FAR NORTH. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE (AGAIN BEST CHANCES AT KFWA) BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND CEILINGS WILL DRIVE AVIATION
IMPACTS TODAY REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS. FREEZING
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AS PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE WHEN TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES
SOUTH.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD
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