049
FXUS63 KIWX 241620
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1220 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (COOLEST ON FRIDAY)
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH NEXT RAIN CHANCES NOT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
OUR UPPER LOW THAT'S BROUGHT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY TODAY SO THAT IT RESIDES IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY THIS EVENING. VORTICITY
CONTINUES TO DAMPEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WITH EAST WINDS,
A THIN LAYER OF CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS IS UNTIL AN AREA OF DRY AIR ADVECTION PUSHES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RAP TIME SECTIONS FROM LAST NIGHT WHICH SHOWED
THIS EROSION OF MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB LAST EVENING AND HANGED
ONTO LOW STRATUS, BUT IT CERTAINLY MAKES SENSE THAT THIS
BOUNDARY COMING THROUGH THIS EVENING WOULD ERODE THE THIN LAYER
OF LINGERING STRATUS.
FOLLOWING THAT, ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF LK MI LATER FRI. HOWEVER, ENOUGH DRY AIR
RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY PASSAGE.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH IT BEING ON THE FRONT EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGING INTO THE AREA, GRADIENT WINDS LOOK TO STAY
WEAK.
DURING THIS LATE WEEK PERIOD, LOW TEENS CELSIUS AT 850 MB COULD
BE TAPPED INTO TO, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING TODAY
SOUTH OF US-30 AND WEST OF US-31, WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES RESIDE. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING FOR SUB-70F DEGREE HIGHS. HIGHS
SURPASSING 70F APPEAR TO EDGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE DAMPENS OVER LK MI AND THE VORTICITY FROM THE
STRONG NOR'EASTER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BACKS WESTWARD. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SECURELY IN THE 40S FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT SO IT'LL FEEL COOL AT NIGHT THEN.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
DEEPENS AND WORKS NORTHEASTWARD. THERE'S SOME QUESTION ON TIMING
OF ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER AIR SO HIGHS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY. INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
HIGHS SURPASSING 70F AREA-WIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS
THURSDAY AS 20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR HIGHS >79 DEGREES OCCUR FROM
WHITE COUNTY TO JAY COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
MVFR/FUEL ALTERNATE CIGS HAVE SETTLED INTO KFWA WITH A POCKET OF
VFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN ABOUT TO BE REPLACED BY MVFR CIGS AS
WELL. THE STRATUS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST AND OVER TIME SHOULD
BREAK DOWN AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN TOWARDS 00Z FRI. THEREAFTER, NO
FLIGHT CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THE PRESENT TIME.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...FISHER
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