860
FXUS63 KIWX 231005
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
605 AM EDT SAT MAR 23 2019
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT MAR 23 2019
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 50. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH RAIN
DEVELOPING SUNDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING
EARLY MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY
AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE, MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY
BUT COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 TO 45.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAR 23 2019
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE AREA AND HAD BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY TODAY,
ALTHOUGH THE COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH LOWS IN THE
30S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT MAR 23 2019
AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND WILL
THEN REACH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND PERSIST SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR JUST RAIN FOR
THE BULK OF THIS EVENT, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SNOW TO
BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ANY TRAVEL ISSUES EARLY MONDAY WITH MOST
ROADS STAYING JUST WET EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY EARLY MONDAY SHOULD BE
UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR THE MICHIGAN LINE UP TO HALF AN
INCH FROM NEAR PORTLAND TO MARION. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE AHEAD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS COLD AIR SPREADS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 40 TO 45 WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT FROM AROUND 20 TO 25. THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME HIGH ZONAL BY
MID WEEK AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE INCREASING
LATE THIS COMING WEEK AS ENERGY EVENTUALLY EJECTS EAST OUT OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF OFF THE WEST CONUS AND REACHES THE MIDWEST.
THERE IS STILL A LARGE RANGE OF TIMING AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS;
HOWEVER, THE CONCENSUS FOR RAINY CONDITIONS IS GENERALLY IN A 48
HOUR WINDOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM EDT SAT MAR 23 2019
VFR IN SKC CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS RIDGING DOMINATES THE WRN LAKES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
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