670
FXUS63 KIWX 210549
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1249 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH 2-4 INCHES
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS LA PORTE AND NORTHWESTERN ST. JOSEPH
COUNTIES IN IN; AND BERRIEN COUNTY, MI.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- TRENDING WARMER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CAUSING THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY SHIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
UPSTATE NY AND THIS CONTINUES TO OPEN THE ACCESS POINT FOR COLD AIR
TO ENTER THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE, ALLOWS THIS
SNOW/DRIZZLE MIX TO SHUT OFF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS DRY
AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS TO CALM DOWN THIS
EVENING AS THE LLJ PUSHES EASTWARD AND MIXING RELAXES. WE'RE ALSO
BACK TO THE COOL WEATHER AS LOWS TONIGHT DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S TONIGHT.
AFTER A DRY DAY SATURDAY, MOISTURE RETURNS LATER SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT PRECIP
MAY PICK UP LATER AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING AS LAKE ENHANCED
INSTABILITY RETURNS AND, THAT PAIRED WITH LIFT AND CONVERGENCE,
ALLOWS FOR A RETURN OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LAKE ENHANCED INVERSION
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY EVENING, REACHING 5 TO 6 KFT
BY AROUND 6Z. HOWEVER, DELTA TS ARE STILL RELATIVELY MODEST AT
AROUND 15 DEGREES. THERE IS SOME TRANSIENCE TO ANY BANDS THAT FORM
WITH A SFC TROUGH OR TWO MOVING THROUGH AND THERE MAY BE A
PREFERENCE TOWARDS A MULTIBANDED STRUCTURE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO DRY
OUT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY ALLOWING A DROP IN INVERSION HEIGHTS AT THAT
POINT. THERE'S FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
FOR BERRIEN, LAPORTE, AND NORTHERN PARTS OF ST JOSEPH COUNTY BETWEEN
6Z SAT NIGHT TO 6Z SUN NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
PUSH OUT LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES, DRY
AIR TAKES OVER, AND TRAJECTORIES CHANGE TO MORE SOUTHERLY.
WAA ENSUES TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES INTO MI. LOOK FOR MORE
SNOW BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
HOT ON ITS TAILS WITH A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT (THE AIGFS ALIGNS MORE WITH GEM/ECMWF TIMING
THAN TRADITIONAL GFS). FRIDAY LOOKS DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY
TO THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT ARE EXPECTED, WITH LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT AT KSBN, MOST OCCURRING BEYOND THE PERIOD-BUT POTENTIAL
BEGINS AROUND 3Z. KFWA MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS WELL, BUT HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION BEYOND VCSH FOR
NOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...MCD
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