491
FXUS63 KIWX 100651
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
251 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN WARMING UP THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES (20-50 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30.
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR SE LAKE MI BEACHES IN
NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY, MI EARLY TODAY. BREAKING WAVES AND
CURRENTS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO DOWN THROUGH
SOUTHERN LOWER MI, NW IN, AND IL. WINDS ARE LIGHT GENERALLY OUT OF
THE WEST, BUT BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. SOME BR/PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING THERE IS
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A MORE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW THROUGH THE DAY, WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST
FLOW BECOMING VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT. WAVES ON LAKE MI BEACHES THIS
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET, MAYBE A FEW UP TO 3 FEET FURTHER
NORTH NEAR ST. JOSEPH, MI BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 1-2 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR NORTHERN BERRIEN
COUNTY, MI TODAY, WITH BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, LOW SWIM RISK CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FURTHER SOUTH
AS WAVE HEIGHTS STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 2 FEET.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS E-SE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS SOUTH OF US 30 (WHERE WE HAVE
20-50 PERCENT CHANCES), BUT A FEW MODELS DO KICK OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
A BIT FURTHER NORTH-MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF US 24 IN NW OH/NE IN. KEPT
FOCUS ALONG/SOUTH OF US 30 FOR NOW. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH
A SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S, LOW 60S.
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
(20-40 PERCENT) AS A SHORTWAVE/WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY
ZONAL FLOW. ZONAL FLOW LINGERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO HAVE LOW
CHANCES (20 PERCENT OR LESS UNTIL MONDAY EVENING) TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POTENTIAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MONDAY NIGHT INTO THU A
BROAD FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS ACROSS OUR AREA, SO HAVE POPS INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. WILL
LIKELY COVER LESS TIME THAN FORECASTED, BUT THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND KEY UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. KEPT GENERIC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S, LOW
TO MID 80S FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD REACH 90 DEGREES
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU AM IN THE VICINITY OF
A COLD FRONT. SOME REPORTS OF BR ALREADY THIS AM (AROUND 5-6SM
AS OF THIS WRITING), WITH MOST GUIDANCE DROPPING KFWA TO 2-4SM
ONCE WINDS BECOME MORE CALM. OTHER MODELS SUGGEST MORE OF A LOW
CEILING THREAT, AROUND 700-1,000FT. FOR NOW, KEPT CEILINGS AT
1500 WITH 2-4SM VIS. OTHERWISE, HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 15-25KFT AND
A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5-10KFT AT THE MOMENT, BECOMING
CLOUDIER AS THE BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHWEST
EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS COULD LIMIT OR PRECLUDE BR
DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST NEAR KSBN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...MCD
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