524
FXUS63 KIWX 152321
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
721 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOL WEATHER PERSISTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR TUESDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
- AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE POTENTIAL THREATS.
- THERE'S A TREND BACK TOWARD DRY WEATHER FOR LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1141 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
QUIET DAY TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE 81 DEGREES FOR FORT
WAYNE AND 79 DEGREES FOR SOUTH BEND.
FOCUS TURNS TO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SPC PUTTING OUR AREA
IN FOR A MARGINAL RISK TOMORROW AND SLIGHT TO ENHANCED FOR
WEDNESDAY. TOMORROW A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH BEGINNING
AROUND 10 AM EDT TOMORROW MORNING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT ON THE BACK END OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WHEN THE BETTER SHEAR/LIFTING ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KTS AND LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7 TO 8 DEG/KM. SRH VALUES AROUND 100-200 WILL ALSO
AVAILABLE. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S
AND INCREASING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS FROM
THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BUT A FEW
TORNADO SPIN UPS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE BETTER THAN
MINIMAL HELICITY VALUES PRESENT.
WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY A
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS BEGINS TO FLOW NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROUGH AND SETS UP A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SCATTERED STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AFTER
1-2 PM EDT BUT WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AS THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTHWEST
BEGINS TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE AREA AROUND 21-22Z (4-5 PM EDT).
THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE LIFT AND SHEAR POTENTIAL WITH
OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT.
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG/KM WILL BE AVAILABLE AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30-50 KTS. SRH VALUES WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED WITH
AROUND 400 M2/S2 POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE. THERE ARE SOME CAVEATS
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WITH THE EXACT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PLACEMENT AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLIER CONVECTION TO
MITIGATE SOME OF THE CONVECTION LATER IN THE DAY. SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH THIS BUT AGAIN LOOKS LIKE ALL THREATS WOULD BE ON THE
TABLE AND THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER OF THE TWO EVENTS THIS
WEEK.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND SYSTEM WE SEE RIDGING BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA
BEFORE A WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES, WITH BRIEF DROPS
TO MVFR DURING ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS BY THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT (15-19Z TIME
FRAME). ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING, FIRST
AT KSBN AND THEN AT KFWA, WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY JUST
BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD. KFWA WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FROM 00-3Z (BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD) WITH THIS
FRONT, AND THERE MAY BE A GAP BETWEEN T-STORM/SHOWER POTENTIAL
(18-20Z IS FIRST RUN, THEN 23-03Z IS THE SECOND CHANCE).
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...MCD
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