020
FXUS63 KIWX 240640
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
240 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL IMPACTS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE
MORNING. AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- OTHERWISE, PLEASANT WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH HIGHS AROUND 70, LOWS IN THE 40S, AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
ANOTHER DAY WITH FOG AS THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN. LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW DENSE FOG RAPIDLY EXPANDING ACROSS
OUR EASTERN CWA THANKS TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OFF
LAKE ERIE AND PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH CLOUDS THAT WERE IN
PLACE EARLIER THANKS TO UPSTREAM TROUGH HAVE NOW LARGELY DISSIPATED
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND SEE NO REASON WHY FOG WON'T CONTINUE TO
EXPAND AND PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY PLETHORA
OF LATEST GUIDANCE. ONLY QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST AND SOUTH IT WILL
BUILD. WITH LIGHT E TO EVEN ESE FLOW, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A RAPID EXPANSION TO THE NW
BUT VERY LITTLE SOUTHWARD EXPANSION. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT
LEFT OFF THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR OBS AND EXPAND AS NECESSARY. SURFACE WINDS FINALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND MORE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
(SAVE PERHAPS FOR OUR EXTREME NE AREAS WHERE LAKE ERIE COULD STILL
BE A FACTOR).
HIGHS TODAY A NEAR CARBON COPY FROM YESTERDAY GIVEN NO THERMAL
ADVECTION. HIGHS DO CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES SUN AND MON AS VERY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW/MINOR WAA TAKES SHAPE. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT THEN
BRINGS A BRIEF RETURN TO COOL EASTERLY FLOW FOR TUE BUT WAA
INCREASES AGAIN FOR WED AND THU AS A DECAYING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND WASH OUT JUST TO OUR NW
WITH JUST SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN NEAR LAKE MI THU INTO
FRI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THERE IS STILL
A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD REGARDING EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS ALLOWING FOR A REPEAT FOG
POTENTIAL SETUP THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN EXPANDING AREA OF STRATUS AND
DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO, WITH A WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF 15
TO 20 MPH. THIS FOG HAS BEEN FAVORED IN A PATTERN WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A WEAK EASTERLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN DENSE FOG POTENTIAL
AT KFWA FROM ROUGHLY 0730Z TO POSSIBLY MID MORNING. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY DEALS WITH WESTWARD EXTENT OF DENSE FOG WITH SOME
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POCKETS OF DENSE FOG AS FAR WEST
AS KSBN. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY, DID LIMIT MENTION TO MVFR VSBYS
TREND BY 10Z AT KSBN WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS. IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE SLOW AT KFWA GIVEN VERY POOR MIXING
CONTINUING. OTHERWISE, QUIET AVIATION WEATHER TODAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD A BIT, ALLOWING FOR
EVENTUAL VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS
PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT FOG
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ005>009-
017-018-024>027-116-216.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ079>081.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI
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