457
FXUS63 KIWX 101725
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
125 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
LOW HUMIDITY.
- NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF 40-60% SOUTH OF US 24.
- DRY, SLIGHTLY WARMER, AND MORE HUMID SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO COME THROUGH
YESTERDAY SLOWED QUITE A BIT FROM WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED
AND STALLED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING; AS THAT FRONT NOW
MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY, AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS
PASSING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AS SEEN ON CURRENT RADAR.
WHILE I CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM, A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND SBCAPE OF 1000 J/KG OR LESS SHOULD KEEP
WIDESPREAD CHANCES AT BAY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE 50S ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUES
ON THE BACKSIDE, USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR TONIGHT.
MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT, PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE GIVEN CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD RADIATION FOG OCCUR, VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT
BE AS LOW AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING GIVEN A LACK OF SATURATION AT
THE SURFACE. I WOULD EXPECT THAT AREAS SOUTH OF US 24 WOULD BE MOST
PRIMED FOR FOG TO DEVELOP TODAY GIVEN THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH. FRIDAY WILL BE A FANTASTIC DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
PROVIDING LOW HUMIDITY, HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES, AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE!
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS ARRIVE STARTING BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US 24 ONCE AGAIN,
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN MAY STAY ENTIRELY DRY GIVEN THAT THE BETTER DYNAMICS
FOR THIS RAIN/STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SATURDAY, AND WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR OUR SOUTHEAST HALF. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE RAIN WILL GET, WITH OUR
HIGHEST POPS OF ABOUT 40-60% SOUTH OF US 24 ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
HAS THE TROUGH AT 500MB SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER EAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAN THE GFS AND NAM DO SO THAT WILL MAKE A
DIFFERENCE TOO AS TO WHERE AND WHEN THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ON SATURDAY.
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, SO HAVE MAINTAINED WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR POPS THROUGH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SINCE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
EVOLVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS HAVE A FRONTAL SYSTEM
COMING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WHILE
OTHERS KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA. THERE
ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS OF FALL IN ANY OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS
OUR FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN HOT AND
HUMID AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND COOLER, DRIER AIR TO OUR NORTH FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
PASSING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY BUT RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT
KFWA BUT LITTLE/NO IMPACT ANTICIPATED. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
SCATTER OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS SOME PATCHY BR POTENTIAL FRI
MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
INCLUDING IN THE TAF'S FOR NOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...AGD
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