489
FXUS63 KIWX 062315
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
715 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY, BEST
CHANCES (30-60%) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FEATURES BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WITH MOIST CONDITIONS EMBEDDED IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WITH
ANY SMALL SCALE PERTURBATIONS AND OUTFLOWS EMBEDDED IN THIS
WEAK FLOW, BEST CHANCES (30-60%) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS TODAY AND FRIDAY. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY CONVECTION GIVEN THE LACKING
FLOW/SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN. PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE AGAIN
OTHERWISE LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF THE US 24 CORRIDOR IN
THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SFC FRONT.
THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER GREAT GREAT LAKES WILL GET A PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM BROAD TROUGH FINALLY
RELEASES EASTWARD. LATEST TIMING FAVORS LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A
LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. DRIER
AIR BRIEFLY FILTERS IN POST-FRONTAL ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY, AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
THE PATTERN ALOFT SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO
LOW AMPLITUDE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SOUTHERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS A FRONTAL
ZONE AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E GRADIENT WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS
REGIME LIKELY KEEPS THE MORE OPPRESSIVE HEAT OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WERE ALSO RETAINED DURING THESE PERIODS
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE VICINITY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT EASTWARD AND A BREAK IN
STEADY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. LINGERING NEAR-SURFACE
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST MVFR STRATUS
AND BR THOUGH WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KSBN.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IS LOW HOWEVER GIVEN A
WIDE SPREAD IN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. CONDITIONS TREND BACK TOWARD
VFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS) WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD
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