055
FXUS63 KIWX 112300
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
700 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS SOUTH OF US-24 HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE TO SEE
RAINFALL INTO THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLOODING IS
A POSSIBILITY THERE.
- BECOMING DRIER AND WARMER BETWEEN LATER TONIGHT AND NEXT
WEEK. A RETURN TO 90F DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND 70F DEW
POINTS LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR BEACHES ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE IN LA PORTE COUNTY, IN. BREAKING WAVES AND
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND NEVER
SWIM ALONE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A COLD FRONT IS STILL CAUGHT UP AROUND THE AREA TODAY AS A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, SOUTH OF WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A LEFT OVER OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY. CONVERGENCE
RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WHERE
CONVECTION IS TAKING PLACE. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUCH AREAS OF
CONVERGENCE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS THERE'S SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THEM TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN 1 TO 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THERE'S STILL 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ON THE NAM AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
INDICATING SOME HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL.
THAT CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE SAUNTERS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY MORNING AND THIS ALLOWS THE DRIER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL
EAST WINDS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
LOOKING AT THE LOW LEVEL WARMTH AND MOISTURE PICTURE, THE AREA IS IN
A RELATIVE THETA-E TROUGH ON MONDAY BETWEEN AN APPROACHING AREA OF
WARM AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST (WHICH IS A LITTLE UNUSUAL) AND THE
STALLED COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS STILL KEEP THE AREA DRY ON
MONDAY EVEN AS A RELATIVELY WEAK VORTICITY STREAMER PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD SEES HIGH TEMPS TREND
FROM THE UPPER 80S INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE SFC HUMIDITY IS
WHERE MORE OF THE QUESTIONS RESULT. THE NBM HAS BEEN ADVERTISING DEW
POINTS STAYING FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70F ON TUESDAY WHEREAS
SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A CHANCE TO
BREAK THROUGH THE 70F MARK ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD MAKE TUESDAY HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE HEAT HEADLINES AS LONG AS POP STORMS STAY
AWAY LIKE THEY'VE BEEN FORECAST TO. IT WOULD JOIN WEDNESDAY THAT HAS
BEEN SHOWN IN MODELS TO HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE TO REACH THAT 70 TO
MAYBE EVEN 75F THRESHOLD OF DEW POINTS. THE CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
MOISTURE MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY CAPTURED BY MODELS AND THAT MAY BE
CONTRIBUTING TO UNDERDOING MOISTURE ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS AIRMASS IS
COMING IN FROM AN AREA WHICH IS NORMALLY DRIER AND DIFFERENT FROM
THE GULF, WHICH MAY BE MORE EASILY SEEN AS HUMID.
TRYING TO JUDGE WHEN RAIN GETS INTO THE AREA IS ANOTHER TOUGH
CONVERSATION TO HAVE AS THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN A TROUGH BUILDING INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS FIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR
CONTROL OF CONUS WEATHER. SOME SORT OF MODEL CONFLUENCE OF BRINGING
RAIN INTO THE AREA TAKES PLACE ON THURSDAY AS SOME COMBINATION OF
THE REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION FROM TODAY WRAP BACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND COMBINE WITH ENERGY SLIDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE TROUGH IN THE
EAST. THINGS REALLY START TO DIVERGE AFTER THURSDAY, THOUGH, AS A
TROUGH IN THE WEST BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND SHOVES IT EASTWARD ON
THE GFS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE BUT
BRINGS RIDGE RIDERS INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS FINALLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. DRY, QUIET CONDITIONS WILL
SETTLE IN THIS EVENING AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST; SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH VFR CEILINGS AS OF NOW.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NORTHEAST INDIANA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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