741
FXUS63 KIWX 281808
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
208 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY.
- A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MAY CLIP (40-70%) AREAS MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 69 WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- REMAINING COOL WITH PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION ON
TARGET TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
GETTING PULLED NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THURSDAY. THIS TRACK AND CONTINUED EASTERLY FEED OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH FAVORS A DRY
SOLUTION LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH A PERIOD
OF DEFORMATION RAIN LIKELY CLIPPING AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOOKING AT THE LIMA OH AREA, GRAND
ENSEMBLE PROBS (ENS/GEFS COMBINED) FOR > 0.25" ARE AROUND 50-60%,
WITH A 30-40% FOR TOTALS NEAR A HALF INCH. COOL AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OTHERWISE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE BLOCKING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN GENERALLY AGREE ON A
MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AND AT TIMES SHOWERY
(LAKE ENHANCED) CONDITIONS IN PLAY DURING THESE PERIODS, THOUGH
DAILY DETAILS REGARDING POPS ARE OF LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
IT IS QUITE A COMPLICATED PATTERN AS A DEEPENING AND SOUTHEASTWARD-
MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTERACTS WITH DEEPENING
VORTICITY OVER THE NORTHEAST US, THAT PUSHES WESTWARD. THIS WHOLE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASED GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA LEADING TO EASTERLY EXCITED SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 10
KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS, ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING
PERIODS. ENOUGH DRY AIR AROUND, AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE 30S AND LOW ATMOSPHERIC RH, IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE AREA IN
VFR CONDITIONS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ROLLER
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