492
FXUS63 KIWX 190659
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
259 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BETWEEN 3-11 PM
EDT.
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE
MAIN THREATS. LOW BUT NON-ZERO RISK FOR HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
- WARM AND HUMID AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- COOLER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY MIDWEEK. HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW STORMS ARRIVE FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING ILLINOIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AROUND DAYBREAK (15-20% CHANCES) IN OUR FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY; DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG SOUTHWEST LLJ RAMPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S) TO SUPPORT SBCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
HIGHEST BETWEEN 3-11 PM EDT TODAY. THE GREATEST RISK AREA WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE. SPC ACTUALLY PULLED THE SLIGHT RISK FROM
OUR NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH I AGREE WITH AS THE
US 24 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE AMPLE TIME TO HEAT UP AND DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BE WEAK GIVEN A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE, BUT IT
WILL BE BETTER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AT 20 TO 30 KTS. WITH WEAKER
SHEAR, THE FAVORED STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR LINE
SEGMENTS. GIVEN DCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT TODAY. IN ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
VEERING BETWEEN 0-1KM, LOW LEVEL SRH UP TO 200 M2/S2, AND LCLS BELOW
1000M, SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS POTENTIAL IS
GREATEST IN NW OHIO, WHICH WILL HAVE THE LONGEST TIME TO HEAT UP AND
DESTABILIZE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING IN FROM
WEST TO EAST. WITH PWATS AROUND 1.25-1.5", EVEN IF STORM CLUSTERS
ARE NOT SEVERE, THEY WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT WITH RAINFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1"/HR.
IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER WITH MUCH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
MIDWEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S AND IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
STRETCH OF WARM AND HUMID DAYS. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW
STORMS ARRIVE FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S.
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S RETURN BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL DAILY PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO AROUND 10 KTS FOR NOW, BUT WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP
AFTER SUNRISE AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KTS TODAY, EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY
WHERE. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY END UP EAST OF IN-15 TOWARDS
KFWA, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 AT KSBN FOR 17-20Z AND A FEW
HOURS LATER AT KFWA FROM 19-22Z. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS TODAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...FISHER
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