920  
FXUS63 KIWX 200833  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
333 AM EST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
A COLD COUPLE OF DAYS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO  
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S, FOLLOWED BY  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL INTO THE TEENS. BY SUNDAY, HOWEVER,  
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 50 DEGREES BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL DOES NOT  
LOOK NOT SO GOOD. DRY LOOKS TO BE CAPPING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE  
MOST PART. WHILE IT IS EARLY IN THE MORNING, EVEN CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO  
GET GOING AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE, A STOUT AREA OF DRY AIR CAN BE  
SEEN PLOWING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. FARTHER NORTH  
TOWARD GRAND RAPIDS, THERE ARE SOME RADAR RETURNS, WITH TEMP/DEW  
POINT OF 18/6 AND 19/9. NO SNOW REPORTED. NORTH OF TRAVERSE CITY IS  
WHERE THE MOST PERSISTENT LES HAS BEEN SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING,  
WITH KGOV REPORTING 11/8 AND 7-MILE SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOCALLY  
STILL SUGGEST SOME OMEGA AND A TOUCH OF SATURATION IN THE DGZ  
(DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE). ALL OF THAT BEING SAID, I HAVE  
TAPERED THIS DOWN TO FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. IMPACTS ARE NOT  
EXPECTED.  
 
OUTSIDE OF THE LES, LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS LOOKS TO BE IN PLAY FOR A  
PORTION OF TODAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. SKIES LOOK TO BE  
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO  
THE TEENS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER VALLEY, ENDING UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY SATURDAY MORNING.  
THIS LOCATION WILL PERMIT MILD AIR TO RETURN TO OUR AREA FOR THE  
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH IS ONSHORE OF SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA. THIS IS FORCED NORTHEASTWARD BY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE  
EASTERN PACIFIC, EVENTUALLY PLACING THIS TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS BY  
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES TO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES  
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. AT THIS JUNCTURE, RAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER,  
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER LAKE  
EERIE, ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO WRAP AROUND INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL  
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS TOWARD  
THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE. PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT THIS OUT IN THE  
COMING FOUR DAYS.  
 
AS THIS STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS OF THE NORTHEAST US, A DEEP TROUGH IS  
FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US PROVIDING US WITH A DOSE OF COLD  
AIR AND POSSIBLE SNOW IN THE FORM OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND PERHAPS  
LAKE EFFECT. DON'T BE TOO ALARMED THOUGH BY THE COLD AIR, AS 850 MB  
TEMPS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO TONIGHT'S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM A WEATHER  
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. EVENTUALLY THE COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH  
SHOULD PROMOTE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS  
AROUND 3K FEET EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KSBN. BEST CHANCE OF SOME  
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 09Z  
AT KSBN WITH BEST CHANCES CENTERED AROUND 12Z AS THE UPSTREAM  
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IMPINGES ON THE AREA. THIS LAKE EFFECT IS  
NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH HOWEVER AS MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR  
QUICKLY BUILDS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.  
GRADUAL VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY  
MORNING MAY PROVIDE BRIEF MVFR POTENTIAL AT KFWA IN THE 13Z-16Z  
TIMEFRAME. CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND POSSIBLY CLEAR LATE  
THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-  
046.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...BROWN  
SHORT TERM...BROWN  
LONG TERM...BROWN  
AVIATION...COBB  
 
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