790
FXUS63 KIWX 051539
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1139 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LOW CHANCES (10-20%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
THIS AFTERNOON
- DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
SFC OBS SUGGESTING A WEAK SFC LOW (REMNANT MCV?) IS WORKING
SLOWLY EAST WITH AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS OUR FAR NE COUNTIES
SIGNALING THE EDGE OF THE MORE STABLE AIR. AROUND THIS WAVE,
AGITATED CU ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 70S AND EVEN SOME LOW 80S, WHICH WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL LINGERING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IS
YIELDING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OR MORE OF CAPE. HRRR CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SOME SPORADIC DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE NE FLOW FINALLY
PUSHES THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA. HAVE
CLEANED UP SOME OF THE POPS, MORESO WRT LOCATION, AND MAINTAINED
SLGT CHC INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS.
OVERALL SETUP NOT REALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE, BUT GIVEN THE
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND MAYBE HELP FROM THE ENERGY OF THE LOW
ITSELF, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEISTY STORM OR 2 WITH SOME LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER FAR NE IL AND NW OH SHOULD EXIT THE AREA TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY 9-10Z. AN ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE CELL (WIND)
REMAINS POSSIBLE, THOUGH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO REMAIN LARGELY OUTFLOW
DOMINANT IN OUR AREA. LOWER CHANCES (10-30%) FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY AS THE PRIMARY
FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER HUMID DAY
OTHERWISE ALONG/SOUTH OF US 30 IN IN WHERE PEAK PM HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 90S.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS DISPLACED WELL OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY, BUT THE UPEPR-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPANDING BACK
EASTWARD OVERHEAD BY THIS TIME. THIS OCCURS AS A TROUGH MOVES
WELL INLAND TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WARM WELL
INTO THE 80S MONDAY BUT DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL WITH A LACK
OF FORCING MECHANISM.
MIDWEEK, LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES MANITOBA/ONTARIO WHILE A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPILLS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS REPRESENTS OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT NOT QUITE A
SLAM-DUNK GIVEN POOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
STILL LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOOKS TO EXPAND OVERHEAD
LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IS SEEPING SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THIS MORNING. TIMING IS A TOUCH MURKY AT KFWA AS THEY'RE
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEPARTING THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN. OVERNIGHT, WIND AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDS MAY LIMIT ANY
RADIATION FOG.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...FISHER
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...BROWN
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