470
FXUS63 KIWX 220558
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WAVES AND STRONG CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. STAY OUT OF THE WATER AND OFF
OF PIERS!
- DRY, COOLER, AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
GRADUALLY WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
(20-40% CHANCES).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES, A
STRETCH OF SEVERAL DAYS OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY STARTS TODAY! THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO USHER IN COOLER AIR; HIGHS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S! THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL FEEL REFRESHING AND IS A WELCOME
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY EARLIER THIS MONTH. LOWS IN THE
50S, WHILE UNUSUAL FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING, ARE NOT THAT
UNCOMMON IN JULY. WE TYPICALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 5 NIGHTS WITH LOWS
BELOW 60 DEGREES IN JULY. THE COOLEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID 50S. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF OUR RURAL, LOW LYING AREAS GET TO 50 OR BELOW.
NBM PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY HAVE ABOUT A 15% CHANCE OF THIS TONIGHT,
BUT CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 5% FOR FORT WAYNE AND SOUTH BEND, WHERE
LOWS WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER, LIKELY CLOSER TO 52-53 DEGREES. RECORD
LOWS ARE SAFE THIS WEEK AS MANY OF THEM ARE IN THE MID 40S. WHILE
NOT RECORD BREAKING, WE WILL CERTAINLY WELCOME THESE COOLER, CRISP
NIGHTS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY!
ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER IS QUIET, THE COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH
YESTERDAY HAS STIRRED UP SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT AND CORRESPONDING HIGH SWIM RISK WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR LA
PORTE COUNTY, IN AND BERRIEN COUNTY, MI TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS, WAVES OF 5 TO 9 FEET, AND STRONG CURRENTS WILL
CREATE LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR SWIMMERS AND BOATERS. STRONG
RIP, STRUCTURAL, AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG
LONGSHORE AND STRUCTURAL CURRENTS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRESENT ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF PIERS. STAY OUT OF THE WATER AND OFF OF PIERS!
CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH CALMER ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
LOW SWIM RISKS EACH DAY.
GRADUALLY WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S BY SUNDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES TOO, WHICH MEANS HUMIDITY LIKELY
GOES UP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
UNCERTAIN ON EXACT TIMING. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST, SO IF WE CAN GET
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE, WE MAY BE ABLE TO GET
STORMS THAT RIDE THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WITH HIGH SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE,
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
SCATTERED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST
INDIANA DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. CEILINGS ARE STILL VFR FOR
NOW, BUT MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR
NEAR KSBN AND WEST TODAY. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A VFR
FORECAST WITH 3500 FOOT CEILINGS, THOUGH OCCASIONAL LOWERING TO
2500-3000 FEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AT KSBN. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO COME FROM THE NORTH TODAY, BUILDING TO 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS NEAR THE LAKE (INCLUDING AT KSBN)
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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