976
FXUS63 KIWX 170943
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
543 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING POTENTIAL ARE THE GREATEST
CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS
OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO.
- DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY RENEWED
OPPORTUNTIES FOR RAIN AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN A BROAD ~25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
A STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE THIS MORNING. SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT ALSO
NOTED FROM A SHORTWAVE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL JET TRACKING EAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AIDING IN SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND THE RESULTING POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOCALIZED
FLOODING THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ROUND GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
COLUMN AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FAVOR AREAS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF FORT WAYNE AREA FOR GREATEST FLOOD THREAT. DID OPT
TO ADD A ROW OF COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE FLOOD WATCH
GIVEN RADAR/MODEL TRENDS. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OTHERWISE THIS MORNING.
CHANCES FOR RAIN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THE PRIMARY MUCAPE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH THAT SAID CANNOT RULE THE LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE ELEVATED PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWARD SINKING FRONTAL SLOPE, MAINLY SOUTH OF US 30 CORRIDOR IN
IN. A LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN GREAT LAKES SHUNTS THE BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF LOWER HUMIDITY
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER WET PATTERN EMERGES THIS WEEKEND AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
WAVES EJECT EAST OVER A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE. THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
AND SURGES OF THETA-E SHOULD FOCUS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT LOOKS TO SINK SOUTH
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY LINGERING OVER THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIVER AND LOWLAND FLOODING MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME
AN ISSUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS AND FEW EMBEDDED STORMS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE MORNING WILL GENERALLY FEATURE LIFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS GIVEN MOIST CONDITIONS WITHIN THE LINGERING
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOME DRYING AND DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT
IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO MAINLY MVFR WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, THOUGH
CHANCES (10-20%) ARE TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OTHERWISE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ017-018-
023>027-032>034.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ024-025.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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