973
FXUS63 KIWX 142316
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
716 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED
EARLY THIS EVENING.
- THERE IS A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
INTO THIS EVENING. LIFE THREATENING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED.
- DRY AND COOL WEATHER PERSISTS INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR TUESDAY AND A
SLIGHT RISK EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN STORE TO BEGIN THE WEEK, BUT
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD.
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE LOCAL AREA AS OF 19Z WITH PRIMARY
INSTABILITY AXIS NOW SITUATED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED LOCALLY WITH JUST
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SHOWER POTENTIAL AS LAGGING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTS WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING STRONG LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING CLOUDS. A
LULL IN WIND GUSTS HAS BEEN NOTED IN WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE
THAT WENT THROUGH NE IN/NW OH, BUT GRADUALLY DEEPENING MIXED LAYER
UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION INFLUENCE SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A BRIEF
WINDOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON OF STRONGER 25 TO 35 MPH WIND GUSTS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL SINK SOUTHEAST INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A BROAD ANTICYCLONE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE FOR MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES.
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT GUIDANCE SIGNAL OF A NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE
DROPPING THROUGH DOWNSTREAM PORTION OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE FOR
TUESDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP FLOW MORE WESTERLY PRECEDING THIS SHORT WAVE WHICH
WILL ULTIMATELY LIMIT ANY NOTABLE MOISTURE RETURN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BUT
OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL
GIVEN BROAD DEEP LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY SHEAR.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
DAMPENING OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK AS A 140+
KNOT UPPER JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT. A
40-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
MO/IL/IA ON WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
INTO THIS REGION. CATEGORICAL POPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOCAL AREA MAY BE POSITIONED
ON A FAIRLY STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP
THAT WOULD FAVOR PROPAGATION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE EXACT WEST-EAST (WARM FRONTAL) BOUNDARY
PLACEMENT AND JUST HOW STRONG LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS ARE. GFS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SEEM TO BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE DEGREE OF
INFLUENCES FROM DIABATIC PROCESS AND POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IMPACTS ON MASS FIELDS WHICH MAKE THIS DETERMINATION
DIFFICULT AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE. SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE
ROBUST HOWEVER, SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD GOING
FORWARD.
ANOTHER SHOT OF LOW LEVEL CAA LATER THURSDAY SHOULD SUPPRESS THIS
FRONT ENOUGH FOR COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS LATE WORK WEEK/EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
BY NEXT WEEKEND IN TERMS OF EXTENT OF BLOCKING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY RETURN ADVECTIVE
FORCING CAN REACH. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
DECREASING CLOUDS AND DECREASING WIND SPEED THIS TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20
KTS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...BROWN
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