208
FXUS63 KIWX 151731
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
131 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
- A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.
- BREEZY, COLD, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON MONDAY. WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH WITH SNOW WILL RESULT IN WORSENING TRAVEL
CONDITIONS MONDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- VERY COLD THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MORNING WIND
CHILLS RANGING FROM ABOUT 0 TO 15 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING INTO TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A
MAJOR EARLY SPRING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. AS OF
17Z, A ~993 MB SFC LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE IA/IL BORDER. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN EAST-NORTHEAST AS ITS MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF A DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LOW CENTER NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SURGING WELL INTO THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WEAKENING SHOWERS WILL CLIP FAR NW
IN AND SW MI THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOST REMAINING DRY WITH HIGH
END ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS (UP TO 55 MPH) ANTICIPATED AT
TIMES.
A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON TARGET TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT ALONG AN INCOMING STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WITH 850 MB
MAGNITUDE UP AROUND 70 KNOTS DOES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPC'S SLIGHT
RISK FOR ISO-SCT DAMAGING WINDS WITH MORE ROBUST LOW TOPPED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE POTENTIAL SAVING GRACE THIS GO AROUND IS
THE OVERALL DEARTH OF INSTABILITY THIS FAR NORTH WITH MODELS STILL
ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S FOR SFC DEWPOINTS POOLED ALONG THE FRONT.
MAY VERY WELL JUST END UP JUST BEHIND A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTS
40-50 MPH.
BLUSTERY AND SHARPLY COLDER AIR WRAPS IN UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE A ~980
MB LOW INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WIND WHIPPED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE FLYING LATER MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING CWA-WIDE AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE STEEPEN UNDER THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING DEFORMATION/UPPER TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT MINOR
ACCUMS AND BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS OUTSIDE OF OUR LES BELTS DURING THIS
TIME. NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHWEST
FLOW LES BELTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM A COMBINATION OF 2-
5" OF ACCUMULATING SNOW, TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING, AND GUSTY WINDS
HELPING TO CREATE REDUCED VISBYS AND BLOWING SNOW. WIND CHILLS ARE
THE STORY OTHERWISE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AROUND ZERO
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE
FLOW PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT THEREAFTER SUPPORTING A
WARMING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS LIKELY CLIPS KSBN 19-23Z WITH BRIEF
VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. VFR WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS OTHERWISE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS,
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A CLAP OF THUNDER. ANY ORGANIZED LINEAR
SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. COLD AIR
THEN WRAPS IN POST-FRONTAL LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS, PRIMARILY MVFR
CIGS AND HIGHLY VARIABLE VISBYS IN AND OUT OF ROBUST SNOW
SHOWERS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ MONDAY TO 11
AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR INZ005-006-103-104-204.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ078>081-177-
277.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR MIZ078-079-177-277.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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