869
FXUS63 KIWX 080545
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
145 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR STORM ON
SATURDAY.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGS PERIODIC CHANCES (50-70%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAIN
AND CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, BEST CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH ENOUGH
ASCENT AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS,
BEST CHANCES (30-50%) ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US 24 CORRIDOR. LOWER
CHANCES (20%) TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG ANY OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES. FLOW AND LIFT THROUGH THE COLUMN REMAIN WEAK
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POTENTIAL
HAZARDS.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL FORCE AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL MOISTURE QUALITY AND FRONTAL FORCING APPEARS WEAK
WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE POP (20%) FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/STORM WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND/OR A LEADING PRE-FRONTAL FEATURE. DRIER AIR DOES
BRIEFLY MAKE INROADS THEN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
POST-FRONTAL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF MONITORING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES RIDING WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLAY LATER SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE INITIAL THETA-E SURGE IN ADVANCE OF A RETURNING
WARM FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS DECENT CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION, THOUGH CAPPING AND UNCERTAINTY ON IF A MCS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH IL/MO DELAYS THE MOISTURE RETURN WITH POPS LIMITED
IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY (40-70%) FOR NOW. A QUASI-ZONAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN LINGERS IN THE GENERAL VICINITY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A SOUTHERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS POSSIBLE. THIS PATTERN
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD SOME HYDRO ISSUES, ALONG WITH A THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, PARTICULARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT BOTH LOCATIONS AS THE DISTURBANCE
WHICH BROUGHT A BRIEF STORM TO KFWA WAS DEPARTING. CONFIDENCE IN
FOG/STRATUS AT BOTH SITES ON THE LOWER SIDE GIVEN VERY LIMITED
RAINFALL (AT KFWA). MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND APPROACHING FRONT
FROM THE NW COULD HELP OR HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT. MAINTAINED
STATUS QUO FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR OBS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEAR KSBN NEAR/SOON AFTER 12Z SAT AND
SEVERAL HOURS LATER AT KFWA. WEAK LIFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BRING A STRAY SHOWER TO KSBN WITH MAYBE A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCE AT KFWA. LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND HOLDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
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