967
FXUS63 KIWX 150152
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
952 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY WITH TWO ROUNDS
OF STORMS POSSIBLE. ONE ROUND OF STORMS BETWEEN 5-10 AM EDT
AND ANOTHER FROM 2-11 PM EDT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.
- HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED FLOODING CONTINUE TO POSE THREATS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF US ROUTE 30 FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. SOME
PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
INDIANA WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY WAS MAXIMIZED TODAY WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM ENHANCED EASTERLY
FLOW FROM EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM WILL BE EXPECTATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS REDEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO/WEST CENTRAL
IL AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY. AS A MID LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE CORN BELT SLOWLY
TRAVERSES EASTWARD TONIGHT, SYNOPTIC SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SOME
NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, EXPECTED CONVECTION
COULD MODULATE THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY. LATEST HIGHER RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH A POTENTIAL OF
GREATER THAN AN INCH GENERALLY COVERED BY THE PRE-EXISTING FLOOD
WATCH. GIVEN MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW
OHIO AND POSSIBLE MCV MIGRATING INTO THIS AREA LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, DID EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH TO VAN WERT/ALLEN
CO OH COUNTIES. SOME ISOLATED WIND POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE AFTER
10 OR 11Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION PERSISTS
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH MODEST MLCAPE AXIS CAN PROGRESS. PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SATURDAY, AUGUST 15TH, ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR TWO SEPARATE ROUNDS OF STORMS. A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SATURDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT, BRINGING THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
BACK OVERHEAD. SYNOPTICALLY, OUR NORTHWEST FLOW 'RING OF FIRE'
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
US. CAMS ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT THAT AN MCS DEVELOPS IN IOWA
TONIGHT AND THAT THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE TO WATCH INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS MCS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND REACH NORTHWEST INDIANA BETWEEN 08-11Z SATURDAY MORNING.
DESPITE THE DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIMING, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH GIVEN ADEQUATE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS.
GIVEN A LINEAR STORM MODE, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ~5 TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT PUSHES EAST, SO I'D EXPECT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE MAINLY WEST OF IN-15 IN NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN
2-11 PM EDT ALONG AND EAST OF I-69 IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
MODELS VARY WIDELY ON A SOLUTION BUT 30-40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR,
100-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 SRH, AND A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY (UP TO 2000 J/KG SBCAPE) MAY DEVELOP. THIS WOULD BE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED,
BRIEF TORNADO. THE AFTERNOON ROUND IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS IN THE MORNING AND IF THERE IS ANY
CLOUD DEBRIS LEFTOVER THAT PREVENTS CLEARING. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
THE MORNING ROUND MAY BE THE MAIN SHOW AND THAT NOTHING
DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
WORKED OVER.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE. WPC DOES HAVE OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY AND
AREAS SOUTH OF US 24 IN A MARGINAL RISK ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THAT THE
GROUND IS SO SATURATED SOUTH OF US 30, WHERE 6-10"+ OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN SINCE THIS PAST TUESDAY, IT WON'T BE HARD TO HAVE SCATTERED
OCCURRENCES OF RENEWED FLOODING. FAR NORTHERN INDIANA, NORTHWEST
OHIO, AND FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE ESCAPED THE WORST OF THE
RAIN RECENTLY BUT SHOULD REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACK
OVER THESE AREAS SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY, SOME CONCERN FOR
FLOODING COULD DEVELOP. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES, WITH THE NAM AND RAP EVEN SUGGESTING POTENTIAL
FOR THEM TO BE AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES! WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD (99TH PERCENTILE PWATS), ANY STORM
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCER WITH RAIN RATES BETWEEN 1-2"
PER HOUR. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN IF YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED
ROADWAY! IN ADDITION, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS,
SOME RIVERS IN NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL INDIANA THAT ARE CURRENTLY
IN ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGE MAY STAY STEADY OR SEE RISES THIS
WEEKEND.
A WELCOME BREAK FROM DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IS AHEAD! WE
FINALLY SEE A REPRIEVE IN THE 'RING OF FIRE' PATTERN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
36-48 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE AREA TO DRY OUT, FLOODWATERS TO
RECEDE, AND FOR RIVER LEVELS TO FALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS COMES WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SHORT LIVED. MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DRY PERIOD BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP PAST FEW HOURS
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S
YIELDING SOME SFC BASED INSTABILITY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AT
TERMINALS LOOK MORE MINIMAL THIS EVENING WITH ATTENTION SHIFTING
UPSTREAM FOR LIKELY CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE THIS
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL LET IMPINGING ON LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN MO/WEST CENTRAL IL. WHILE SYNOPTIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY, SOME
POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT CONVECTION COULD LIMIT NORTHWARD EXTENT
OF ITS PROGRESS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD KEEP HEAVIEST
SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS, BUT OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE WITH THE 00Z TAF WITH SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING TERMINALS AFTER 11Z. GIVEN POSSIBILITY OF A
SOUTHWARD TREND IN HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS, THUNDER MAY BE OF A
BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 MENTION AT
KFWA. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT, SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN WEAK FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE QUESTION FOR LATE THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON EVOLUTION OF
POTENTIAL MCV LEFTOVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN TERMS OF
ITS STRENGTH, TIMING, AND TRACK. SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A
POSSIBILITY THAT KFWA WILL AT LEAST BE LOCATED ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER
TOWARD END OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE AT KFWA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON MENTION AT THIS FORECAST DISTANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR INZ012-013-015-020-022>027-032>034.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
OHZ024-025.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...MARSILI
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MARSILI
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