941
FXUS63 KIWX 191832
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
232 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER
THE REGION IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A
GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE/CHANCES WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH
MID EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ARRIVES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND THETA-E SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOCUSING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE US 30 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER ROUND THEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF/WHERE ANY BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING CAN
OCCUR, RESULTING IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. LOCALIZED
LOWLAND AND RIVER/STREAM FLOODING, ALONG WITH FLASH FLOODING,
REMAINS A CONCERN GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND AND OPPORTUNTIES
FOR TRAINING ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THIS VERY MOIST 1.8-2.2 INCH
PWAT AIR MASS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW
(IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING). LATEST GUIDANCE DOES FAVOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE US 30 CORRIDOR FOR HIGHER PROBS FOR 1-3"
PLUS. LUCKILY THERE ARE LOWER PROBABILITIES TO THE SOUTH, THOUGH
ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IN AREAS JUST SOUTH OF FORT WAYNE WILL
FURTHER EXACERBATE ONGOING HIGH WATER ISSUES.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY SOUTH OF US 30. THEN, A SLOW MOVING
THROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
FINALLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS THE LOW CROSSES
THE AREA GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE,
AND POSSIBLY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MILD AND DRY WEATHER
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED
WITH THE LAST BAND OF SHOWERS NOW PASSING OVER KFWA. CAN'T RULE
OUT A SHOWER OR 2 POPPING AT TIMES, BUT FOR THE MOST MOST WE
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUN. PLENTY OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AROUND, ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN OCCASIONAL
JUMPS TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR UPSTREAM WHICH ARE HARD TO CAPTURE IN
TAFS. HAVE TRIED TO CAPTURE TRENDS AS BEST AS POSSIBLE THROUGH 1
TO 2Z BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES RETURN. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE AT KSBN
AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EITHER FORM OVERHEAD OR DEVELOP
OVER LK MI AND N IL AND MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. GENERAL IFR AND
POSSIBLY LIFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER
MIXED IN. HAVE LEFT PROB30 FOR ACTUAL THUNDER THREAT UNTIL WE
CAN HOPEFULLY TIME OUT A BETTER WINDOW FOR GREATER IMPACTS. KFWA
COULD SEE MUCH OF THE PRECIP HOLD OFF TILL 6Z OR AFTER SO HAVE
WENT MORE CONSERVATIVE HERE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR INZ005>009-012-014-015-
017-018-023>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ015-024.
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MIZ078>080-177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL/COBB
AVIATION...FISHER
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