383
FXUS63 KIWX 271858
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
258 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2021
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2021
INCREASING CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, RAIN COMES IN AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST OF THAT RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS STAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES INTO
THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COOLING TREND COMMENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2021
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEAST CANADA
CONTINUES TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON LIGHT EAST WINDS
PUSHES STRATUS CLOUD COVER BACK OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL SERVE AS A SET OF INSULATION AND NOT ALLOW
RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FURTHER
THAN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SO, FROST IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM
TONIGHT.
THOSE LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS STAY AROUND THE AREA ON THURSDAY,
HOWEVER, THE MID LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WON'T MOISTEN UP TO BE
CONDUCIVE TO RAIN UNTIL MIDDAY, AT THE EARLIEST, AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON POCKETS OF MID LEVEL
OMEGA LINE UP WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND NOW WITH PWATS OVER 1", SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THIS TIME. BETWEEN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING PERIODS OF RAIN MOVE THROUGH WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORCING AND MOISTURE, HOWEVER, THE FORCING CALMS DOWN
AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME MOISTURE STILL
EXISTS IN THE COLUMN SO EXPECT TIMES OF LIGHTER RAIN DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. WITH QPF RANGING FROM JUST UNDER A HALF INCH IN THE
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 1 INCH IN NW OH, WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE IDEA
THAT THIS WON'T CREATE TOO MUCH MORE FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE AREA
WITH SOME RIVERS ALREADY STARTING TO COME OUT OF FLOOD ALREADY.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESIDE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S ALSO POSSIBLE EAST OF I-69 ON THURSDAY.
SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2021
RAINFALL BEGINS TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH CLOUDS LINGERING EAST OF I-69 BEYOND SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY KEEPING THOSE DAYS DRY. THEREAFTER, A COOLING TREND STARTS
SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. MODELS HAVE BEEN CREATING SOME FUNKY BUSINESS WITH THAT
FRONT AND DEVELOPING WAVES ALONG IT. WITH THE COLD AIR COMING IN,
BLENDS OF MODELS ARE MIXING PRECIPITATION FROM ONE MODEL AND ITS
SLOWER TIMING WITH THE COOLER AIR OF ANOTHER AND ITS FASTER TIMING
SO DON'T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY WINTRY WEATHER THE BLENDS
ARE PUTTING INTO THE LONG RANGE THIS FAR OUT ESPECIALLY WHEN A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS A POSSIBLE SOLUTION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2021
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN TRANSLATES EWD TONIGHT
WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF
SAINT LOUIS BY THE END OF THE FCST PD. A DRY AIRMASS TODAY WILL
CHANGE AS LLVL CIGS ADVECT WEST INTO IN FROM OHIO BY THIS
EVENING. THE MVFR DECK WILL IMPACT KFWA AROUND 21-22Z AND AFTER
03Z AT KSBN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY
SUNRISE THU.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ROLLER
SHORT TERM...ROLLER
LONG TERM...ROLLER
AVIATION...FRAZIER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page