216
FXUS63 KIWX 240611
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
211 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (30-60% CHANCE). DRYING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY
THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES (30-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF US-24.
- BECOMING HOT AND HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AS
EARLY AS MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO MODEST LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY
SWIRLING OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY A 30-60% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST 2AM EDT THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY IS A LIMITING FACTOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, CLOCKING IN AROUND 500 J/KG. PAIRED WITH 30-35 KNOTS OF 0-
6KM SHEAR, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG STORM, YET LAPSE
RATES OF ONLY 6C/KM COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TOO.
THE LOW'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HANGS UP SOUTH OF US 24 THURSDAY
MORNING, THREATENING TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RENEWED SHOWERS.
HOWEVER, ANY BENEFICIAL MOISTURE RESIDES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS (20% CHANCE) AS A 50-
KNOT 500MB JET ROTATES THROUGH. ALMOST SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND, A COMPACT LOW MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINING A PERIOD OF STEADY
RAIN TO AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
BEYOND THAT, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE GOING TO PAY FOR WHAT HAS BEEN A
PLEASANT (COOL) MID-JUNE PERIOD. STARTING SUNDAY, A STRONG RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US SENDING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE
90S BY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DAILY UNCERTAINTIES AS PASSING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES CAN DAMPEN ANY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST, BUT
OVERALL, THE HEAT IS ON. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THIS 594-597DM
RIDGE MAY PERSIST INTO THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
INHERITED TAFS WERE IN GREAT SHAPE REQUIRING MINIMAL UPDATES.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LATER TODAY,
PROMPTING A TEMPO GROUP AT KSBN. INSTABILITY REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE, THUS THE TAF REMAINS THUNDER-FREE. BOTH OF THESE
ELEMENTS WILL BE REEXAMINED (AT BOTH SITES) WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS BEHIND THE 850-MB TROUGH THAT DELIVERS -SHRA, BUT
GUIDANCE IS INCONGRUENT THERE. OTHERWISE, WIND GENERALLY BELOW
10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO A MINIMAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE BROADER MIDWEST.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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