420
FXUS63 KIWX 301019
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
619 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 69. A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN INDIANA WEST OF SR-15, WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK (BEST CHANCE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING).
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THIS WEEKEND, THEN CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY. MORNING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL
SHIFT E-SE, GIVING WAY TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE A TROUGH
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING
FAR SOUTH AND EAST OF US 24, BUT THUS FAR SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
CONTINUED TO FOCUS SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE
CASE GOING FORWARD WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HAVE AROUND 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THROUGH LATE MORNING. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY SNEAK
INTO THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, BUT IT'S
STILL UNCLEAR AS TO HOW EXTENSIVE IT WILL BE OVER OUR AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S, WARMEST SOUTH AND WEST.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS (BEST POTENTIAL AROUND 00Z/8 PM). THERE ARE DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE WAVE, AND IT DOES ARRIVE JUST AFTER PEAK
HEATING TIME. MODELS HAVE ANYWHERE FROM 200-1000 J/KG SURFACE CAPE
BY THEN, MAINLY WEST OF I 69. MOISTURE IS LACKING UNTIL THE MAIN
WAVE ARRIVES, HOWEVER, SO UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE (MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE). FOR NOW,
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN (30-60 PERCENT) AROUND 6-10 PM ET. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF IN-15, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS (SPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR THIS
POTENTIAL JUST CLIPPING OUR FAR WESTERN IN COUNTIES).
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR COOLER WEATHER WILL START TO
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDING
INTO OUR AREA FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S THIS WEEKEND WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL MON-WED,
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY, SO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MID WEEK. LEFT THE
LOWER-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES TOWARDS THAT PERIOD-WITH THE
ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE BRINGING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING-AND
THE GFS SHOWING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK TROUGH. TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL BE IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FOR KSBN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THUNDER FOR SITE KFWA SO
AT THIS TIME LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAF. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY AFTER
17Z-20Z FRIDAY THROUGH 04Z-06Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH SITES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page