405  
FXUS63 KIWX 172322  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
722 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- REMAINING WARM AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
- RAIN SHOWER CHANCES (20-40%) ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
STAGNANT WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH FRIDAY  
(AND PROBABLY INTO SATURDAY) WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE  
THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE REGION. A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH  
SOUTHEAST CANADA LIKELY FORCES A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT INTO THIS  
RIDGING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WASHING OUT NEAR THE  
US 30 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS ON FRIDAY  
IN OUR NORTHEAST WITH LACKING FORCING AND WASHED OUT NATURE SUGGESTING  
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME DIURNAL CU NEAR THE FRONT.  
 
CHANCES, ALBEIT LOW (20-40%), FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ENTER  
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN  
GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST TOWARD  
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. LEADING SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES ADVECT BETTER  
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SEVERAL  
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO SWING THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL US AND  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST WAVE ON SUNDAY APPEARS WEAKER WITH  
LINGERING DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR POTENTIALLY LIMITING SHOWER COVERAGE.  
BETTER SHOWER AND ISO STORM PROSPECTS ARRIVE AROUND  
MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
EJECTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, THOUGH DAILY POPS REMAIN ON  
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE. TEMPS  
GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OTHERWISE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025  
 
STILL WITHIN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN A LOW  
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND A HIGH PRESSURE AREA  
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SW CANADA AND THIS ALLOWS VFR CONDITIONS  
TO CONTINUE THEIR HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THE ONE  
QUESTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG.  
CROSS OVER TEMPS ARE JUST TOUCHED AT FWA, BUT NOT MET AT SBN.  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK MORE LIKE A SHALLOW GROUND SET UP EVEN  
AT FWA TONIGHT WHEREAS SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE AT SBN.  
AVIATION GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A COUPLE HOURS OF 2 MILES  
STARTING AT 10Z TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND, AM INCLINED TO LEAVE  
THE FWA TAF THE WAY IT IS WITH TEMPO MVFR VISBY, BUT WOULDN'T  
BE SURPRISED TO SEE JUST SHALLOW GROUND FOG THERE TOMORROW AM.  
 
 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IN...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL  
AVIATION...ROLLER  
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