568
FXUS63 KIWX 041817
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
217 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF US 24. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED BETWEEN 4-11 PM EDT.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY; A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WITH CONTINUED WARMTH AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
HAPPY 4TH OF JULY! THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO. WE ARE
MONITORING A REMNANT MCV LOCATED OVER EASTERN IA/WESTERN IL AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA WITH DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES AS OF 2 PM EDT. AMIDST A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OVERHEAD, MULTICELL
STORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
BETWEEN 4-11 PM EDT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30. WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S, STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO 2000-2500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY
BUT THEY DO ONCE AGAIN DEPICT INVERTED V PROFILES WITH DCAPE
ABOVE 1000 J/KG, WHICH INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER FAVORABLE PARAMETERS INCLUDE LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM AND PWATS AROUND 1.5". EVEN IF
STORMS STAY SUB- SEVERE, HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL STILL BE
HAZARDS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING MAY OCCUR GIVEN RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL, SATURATED GROUND, AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS GIVEN
WEAK SHEAR. IF YOU HAVE ANY OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE 4TH OF JULY
TODAY AND TONIGHT, STAY SAFE AND STAY COOL!
CONVECTION EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN ON SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
PLACEMENT OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TODAY'S CONVECTION, BUT
HAVE CONTINUED POPS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN 40-
70%. ANOTHER MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH WEAK SHEAR SETUP IS LIKELY
GIVEN THAT WE WILL BE WARM AND HUMID ONCE AGAIN. SCATTERED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,
BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. GIVEN SLOW
STORM MOTIONS, I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-69, WHERE 20-40%
POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
STARTING ON THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED
WARMTH AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WE'LL BE WATCHING AREAS TO OUR WEST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR MORE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MORNING CLOUDS
BROKE GIVING TIME FOR INSTABILITY AND HEAT TO REGENERATE. A
RELATIVELY STRONG VORT MAX (FOR HOT WEATHER) APPROACHES THIS EVENING
PROVIDING THE CHANCE FROM 20 TO 04Z OR SO (MAYBE ENDING AROUND
6Z AT FWA). THERE'S STILL SOME QUESTION ON EASTWARD AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF RAIN/STORM COVERAGE, SO WILL USE PROB30
GROUPS FOR THIS CHANCE. SHOWERS MAY ALSO ATTEMPT TO ERUPT AGAIN
ON SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AS WELL. ESPECIALLY IF
IT DOES RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SOME
FOG POTENTIAL, BUT IT LOOKS TO EVAPORATE NOT TOO LONG AFTER
SUNSET PERHAPS OWING TO ITS POTENTIAL SHALLOW-NATURE. IT COULD
ALSO BE A THIN STRATUS LAYER, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS APPEAR TOO
WEAK TO GO THAT ROUTE FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
WINDS ARE MORE WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS WEAKER THAN 10 KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ009-017-018-
022>027-032>034.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ROLLER
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