468
FXUS63 KIWX 200040
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
740 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS DECREASING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AS 50 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR 45 MPH GUSTS DURING THE DAY. WITH THE COLD AIR ARRIVING
AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE, EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW.
- SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR OF A LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MO. ACTIVITY IS
STEADILY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST AND POSES A MINIMAL THREAT TO
OUR FORECAST AREA. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS, MAINLY
INSTABILITY, ARE WEAKENING AT THIS HOUR THUS REDUCING OUR LOCAL
RISK. OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE US-24 CORRIDOR HAS BEEN LOCKED INTO
THE COOL SECTOR AND FOG HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC FOR SOME AS WELL.
ISOLATED WARM SPOTS INCLUDE LIMA, PORTLAND, AND MARION WHICH ARE
IN LINE FOR SOME RAIN AS THE CENTRAL INDIANA ACTIVITY PASSES
BY, WITH ANY SEVERE RISK REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THOSE
LOCATIONS.
I DID PASS MY CONCERN ON TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR
CONSIDERATION. ONE ITEM THEY MENTIONED WORTH MONITORING IS
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL IL. MODEST ELEVATED CAPE PROFILES
THERE ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS AS WELL,
MAKING A POOR CASE FOR OUR LOCAL AREA AS WELL. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, BUT, THE
OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
APPEARS MINIMAL.
CIRCLING BACK TO FOG FOR A MOMENT, FOG PERSISTS OVER A NUMBER OF
COUNTIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE IN-OH-MI LINE. SOUTHERN COUNTIES
HAVE IMPROVED AS THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN HAVE
ARRIVED. HOWEVER, FAR NORTHERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS HILLSDALE, MI
PRESENT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION HOLDING STRONG
UNTIL ANY RAIN ARRIVES. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSES
THE FOG FOR NOW, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY UPGRADES
THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
THE NEAR TERM FEATURES CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LOW RESIDES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS REGIONS. TO
ITS SOUTH, A SFC LOW MEANDERS NORTHEASTWARD FOR THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW THAT FAR WEST, IT'LL BE DOWN TO THE
BOUNDARIES MOVING NORTHWARD OR STALLING AND WEAKER
SHORTWAVES/CONVERGENCE IN THE FLOW TO CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS GOING TO BE
INSTABILITY GIVEN EARLY SEASON TIMEFRAME AND LINGERING CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM MORNING CONVECTION. FREEZING LEVEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY
LOW AT AROUND 6 KFT, BUT DOES MAKE SOME SENSE GIVEN TIME OF
YEAR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM ARE APPRECIABLE AND
HAVE LIKELY FACTORED INTO LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THIS MORNING'S STORMS. THE OTHER FACTOR HAS BEEN THAT MANY OF
THE MORNING STORMS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED WITH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING THE HAIL AND LIMITING THE DOWNDRAFT MAGNITUDES WITH
THE INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS. ON THE OTHER HAND, SHEAR HAS
BEEN SOMETHING THAT STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO TAP INTO WITH
AROUND 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AVAILABLE AND THIS ALSO APPEARS
TO THE CASE FOR INTO THIS EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE 21
TO 01Z WINDOW IS THE TIME TO WATCH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TO FORM AGAIN AS MOIST CONVERGENCE AND THE ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVES
BRING THE POTENTIAL TO REIGNITE STORMS AGAIN. IT'LL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHERE INITIATION OCCURS BECAUSE STORMS THIS
MORNING FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND EAST- CENTRAL
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO ERODE IN CENTRAL IL/IN
AREAS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE. THIS AREA OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
EVACUATES THE AREA 3-6Z ACCORDING TO THE HRRR. THERE COULD BE
ONE MORE AXIS OF INSTABILITY THAT SWINGS THROUGH BETWEEN 5 AND
9Z AHEAD OF THE THE COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT,
ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF SUNSHINE IS ABLE TO
CUT THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR MORE SURFACE-BASED STORMS.
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS DOWN AND DEW POINTS DROP FOR FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, AN INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LAKE MI 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING AND THIS DOES APPEAR TO HAVE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP 1000 TO 850 MB LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
POTENTIALLY SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF GRAUPEL, HAIL, OR MAYBE SNOW
MIXED WITH RAIN AS THE COLUMN COOLS BACK DOWN TO FREEZING.
ADDITIONALLY, BECAUSE OF THE CAA AND MIXING INTO A 40 TO 50 KT
LLJ, HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA. 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IS ONE
NEGATIVE THAT ALLOWS FOR A LOWER CEILING ON GUSTS. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE STOPS PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TREKKING TOWARDS THE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING HALTS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION.
AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND
TRAJECTORIES TURN TO BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THETA-E LAPSE RATES
GET BETTER AND THE COLUMN MOISTENS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. INVERSION HEIGHTS UP AROUND 5 TO 6 KFT DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE SNOW, BUT DELTA TS ARE ONLY 15
TO 20C. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF INDICATES A 24 HR TOTAL
OVER WINTER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. THE SNOW WOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY, WHICH BRINGS
SOME COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
PERSISTENT, DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KFWA ON THE NORTH EDGE OF
A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT, PERHAPS WITH MARINE INFLUENCE
FROM LAKE ERIE. SIGNALS ARE MURKY FOR HOW LONG THIS MAY
PERSIST, WITH 50-DEGREE DEW POINTS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. OVERALL, AT
BOTH SITES, A PERIOD OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AFTER
12Z IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT RACING THROUGH.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/
FRIDAY FOR INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-
103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ078>081-177-
277.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...BROWN
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...BROWN
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