576
FXUS63 KIWX 191806
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
206 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-60 PERCENT) THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30.
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL (40-60 PERCENT) ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LAKE MI BEACHES
ALONG BERRIEN CO, MI AND LA PORTE COUNTY, IN THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. DANGEROUS CURRENTS AND WAVES ARE
POSSIBLE. MONITOR THE BEACH FORECAST FOR UPDATES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
A PRETTY WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AND ORIENTATED SLIGHTLY FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO EAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE FLOW
RUNNING PRETTY PARALLEL TO THAT BOUNDARY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
WILL BE LIKELY TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE CONCERN THAT THIS WILL IMPACT
AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY HAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ISSUES
DID HOIST A FLOOD WATCH OVER THESE LOCATIONS WHICH WAS MAINLY
THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF US-30 AND THIS WILL RUN UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE
STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7
C/KM, SR HELICITY VALUES AROUND 50 M2/S2 OR LESS, AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50-60 KTS. THIS LEADS TO THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THESE STORMS BEING FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA UNDER A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE THEME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING
AND PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF I-69 ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS
TIME ANY STORMS LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW (HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S). THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE CHANCES FOR
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ON LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT SITUATION.
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
A WEAK FRONT COMBINED WITH BUILDING DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST
CHANCES (40-50%) REMAIN AT KFWA IN THE 20-00Z WINDOW WHERE BRIEF
VIS RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. LAKE BOUNDARY
MAY EVEN TOUCH OFF ISOLATED STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KSBN THIS
AFTERNOON. TRENDING DRY AND PRIMARILY VFR OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY
BR/FG.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR INZ013-015-020-
022>027-032>034.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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