187
FXUS63 KIWX 141056
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
656 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND EXIT THE AREA
THIS MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT.
- MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
THE OVERALL FLOOD RISK IS LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
INTENSIFYING LLJ AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E SURGE YIELDING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL IN AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH A DECENT
EML NOSING INTO OUR SW CWA. SURFACE OBS/MESOANALYSIS SHOW FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE INSTABILITY GRADIENT CURRENTLY WELL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED IN IND'S
CWA. STILL GETTING A FEW STORMS AND MODERATE RAIN ALONG MORE
ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE FRONT IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE AROUND 1000
J/KG OF MUCAPE STILL EXISTS. THESE STORMS POSE LITTLE/NO SEVERE RISK
BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN HOW SOAKED THAT
PORTION OF OUR CWA IS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STABILIZE
SOMEWHAT. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS MIDLEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER OUR AREA WITH GENERAL AVA. STILL, THE
AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A WEAK MCV
ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. THESE TWO FACTORS COULD SUPPORT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT COVERAGE
AND IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY RUNS UNTIL
15Z BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL A FEW HOURS EARLY IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS
BEHAVE AS EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY, ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLAGUING OUR AREA ALL WEEK WILL LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT GIVEN EXITING EASTERN CANADA UPPER LOW AND EASTWARD
EJECTION OF WHAT COULD BE A VERY POTENT MCV OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR GIVEN A HIGH
DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONG VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
STAGE IS SET FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION.
ANOTHER SURGE OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED, PUSHING AT LEAST MODERATE
INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA WHILE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH ON THE NE FRINGES OF THIS RIDGE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. ONE WILD CARD IS THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
DURING THE MORNING AND THAT COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HI-RES CAM'S ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER WE WILL GET ORGANIZED
REDEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY. IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP
THEN STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN, BUT HAIL AND
TORNADOES CAN'T BE RULED OUT. LUCKILY, BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD OUR NORTHERN CWA WHICH CAN HANDLE MORE RAIN
BETTER THAN OUR SOUTH. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH LESS POTENTIAL TRAINING/BACKBUILDING. WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO
WATCH THE HYDRO ASPECT GIVEN OUR WATER-LOGGED SOUTH BUT OVERALL
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A HUGE FLOODING RISK AT THIS POINT.
THE FRONT RETURNS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN,
SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN MODERATE LEVELS OF MLCAPE AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLY AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT LIMITS
INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF OUR CWA AND FOCUSES BETTER SEVERE CHANCES
JUST TO OUR S/SE. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR REFINEMENTS TO THIS
FORECAST THOUGH. THANKFULLY, QUIET WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
AN AREA OF RAIN IS SLOWLY SEEPING SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM KSBN
AND KFWA. PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH IFR CEILINGS IMPROVING AT KSBN AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. -TSRA COULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OF KSBN BY
THE VERY END OF THIS PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ013-015-020-
022>027-032>034.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ024-025.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...BROWN
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