256
FXUS63 KIWX 201822
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
222 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MODERATE SWIM RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR BERRIEN COUNTY BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2-3 FT AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THIS EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE 0.5-1.5" OF RAIN WITH
POCKETS OF 2" OR MORE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-24.
- A HIGH SWIM RISK IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS SHIFT.
PRETTY NICE SPRING DAY TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING RIPPLING
THROUGH THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER ONTARIO, CANADA.
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CWA
BY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON INTO OUR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FIRST BEFORE SPREADING NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH
STILL A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM THE MAIN IMPACTS
LOOK TO BE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN IN. THIS WILL PUT A MORE EASTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA AND MAIN DEFORMATION BAND THAT WILL LEAD TO MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. VIRTUALLY VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT OVER NORTHERN IN HOWEVER WITH SOME BETTER
LIFTING AND MID LEVEL FLOW AVAILABLE OVER CENTRAL IN SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
TOTALLY EXCLUDED AT THIS TIME. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR
SUNDAY. WITH A PRETTY JUICY ENVIRONMENT (PWATS AROUND 1.7
INCHES) THIS SHOULD BE A FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER.
EXPECTATIONS RIGHT NOW ARE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THIS EVENT, PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO 3 INCHES
ESPECIALLY IF SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THOSE AREAS. WPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY
OVER OUR AREA. CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH THAT WE COULD SEE
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS SO DID REFRAIN FROM HOISTING ANY FLOOD
WATCHES TO OUR AREA.
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BEGIN ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTION WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE
OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THIS TIME AND
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT HARDER TO COME BY SO NOT LOOKING AS
PRODUCTIVE AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
WE GO OUT IN TIME.
HIGHS THIS WEEK STILL LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 70S LOOK TO AT
LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, LOOKING FURTHER OUT IT APPEARS
AN OMEGA TYPE BLOCKY PATTERN MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WITH BROAD RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH LOOKS
TO BRING US MORE SUMMERLIKE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGINNING NEXT
WEEKEND AND IF THE BLOCK DOES INDEED DEVELOP WE COULD BE STUCK
IN THAT MODE FOR A BIT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-25
KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS WEAK SFC RIDGING SETTLES IN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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