512
FXUS63 KIWX 022302
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
702 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
EXPECTED.
- SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 5-11 PM EDT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- FLOODING CONCERNS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH SATURDAY. COOLER, IN THE
40S, TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS CONTINUES TO BE OUR FOCUS FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICALLY,
A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MID-50S. SOUTH OF THIS
WARM FRONT, STRATUS IS CLEARING AS WELL. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
HANDLING THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WELL, WHICH BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN
THE GUIDANCE. THE SOURCE REGION FOR STORMS LATER TODAY, WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, REMAINS SOCKED IN BENEATH CLOUDS FOR THE TIME BEING. YET,
HREF MEMBERS AND HOURLY CAMS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE, THE STRATUS AND CAP WILL BREAK, RESULTING
IN A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST IN NEAR 5PM EDT.
IN GENERAL, INGREDIENTS REMAIN DISJOINTED WITH DEPARTING 500MB AND
850 MB JETS PLACING OUR AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION BRIEFLY,
ALONG WITH WANING MUCAPE BELOW 1,000 J/KG WHICH CAN BE ENOUGH WHEN
PAIRED WITH 45-50 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR (SEEN HERE). 0-1 KM HELICITY
IS SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES, BUT AGAIN, THE HOLISTIC ENVIRONMENT IS
DISJOINTED/MARGINAL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORNADOES, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FROM 5PM AND 11PM EDT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A WEAKENING TREND AS ANY STORMS NEAR THE I-69 CORRIDOR
DUE TO DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND WANING INSTABILITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH, CONDUCIVE FOR DOWNPOURS, BUT
AREA-WIDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE 0.25-0.50". LASTLY,
THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK BUT LIMITED BY EXISTING
CLOUDINESS. UPSTREAM, WIND GUSTS ARE INCREASING (ABOUT 40-42MPH IN
CENTRAL IL).
ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TONIGHT'S COLD
FRONT HAS MINIMAL EFFECT AS STRONG RIDGING OFF THE OUTER BANKS
ENCOURAGES WARM, SOUTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE, OVER THE CENTRAL US,
CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY BRINGING ANOTHER WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR
AREA FRIDAY. THIS FAVORS RAIN PRIMARILY SOUTH OF US-24 THAT
GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY. PRECEDING RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND LAGGING JET DYNAMICS
LOOK TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, AN
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO THREATEN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN 0.5 TO 1" OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
SHARPLY COLDER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
THIS REMAINS THE CASE ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD,
CANADIAN AIR BECOMES ESTABLISHED VIA EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM PRECEDES THIS, BRINING A 20%-30% CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MICHIGAN. LOOK FOR WARMER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN, WITH ALL OF
NORTHERN INDIANA IN THE MILD (WARM) SECTOR. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL
LINE WAS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA, WELL AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT FURTHER WEST OVER NORTHEAST IA. STORMS WERE
GOING UPSCALE IN THIS LINE. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A
REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS THESE STORMS. HAVE UPDATED THE SBN TAF
FOR BRIEFLY MUCH LOWER VISIBILITIES WHICH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN
THIS LINE. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME WEST WITH
MVFR RETURNING OVERNIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...NONE.
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ078>080-177-
277.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...MARSILI/SKIPPER
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