535
FXUS63 KIWX 262310
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
710 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY SEVERE, ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN 5 PM AND 11 PM
EDT. ALL HAZARDS (LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOES,
FLOODING) POSSIBLE.
- SHARPLY COLDER AND BREEZY ON FRIDAY.
- DRY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE
RISE.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN MIDWEEK INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
SEVERE PARAMETERS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A SOUTHWARD SINKING
FRONTAL ZONE. FOR BUOYANCY, ONGOING LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND
HEATING UNDER AN EML WILL SUPPORT ~1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. UPDRAFT
MAINTENANCE AND GROWTH SHOULDN'T BE A PROBLEM GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAGNITUDES IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE INCREASING HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND
0-1/3 KM SRH VALUES. ALL HAZARDS (HAIL/WIND/TOR) REMAIN ON THE
TABLE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ONLY
CHANGE TODAY HAS BEEN FOR SLIGHTLY QUICKER START AND END TIMES OF
THE CONVECTION.
AS FOR FORCING, TIMING AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION... AN INCOMING
SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED 700/500 MB SPEED MAX
STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE STRONG EML CAPPING
INVERSION AROUND 21-22Z. ANYTHING BEFORE THIS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO DO ANYTHING MORE THAN SMALL HAIL. DEEPER CONVECTION
LIKELY INITIATES IN NW IN AND NE IL NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE
AUGMENTED PORTION OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ALONG THE LAKESHORE TO LOW-MID 80S JUST
INLAND. PROGGED SHEAR/INSTABILITY PROFILES MENTIONED ABOVE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL
PROBABLY THE MAIN THREAT INITIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE US 24
CORRIDOR. MERGERS AND UPSCALE GROWTH IS THEN EXPECTED INTO
EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA 22-02Z WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, LARGE HAIL, AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES INCREASING IN THIS TIME WINDOW. A TRANSITION
TO MORE OF A HYDRO THREAT THEN REMAINS POSSIBLE MID EVENING
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US 24
CORRIDOR. CONVECTION, HOPEFULLY NON-SEVERE BY THIS POINT,
LIKELY FILLS IN AS DEEP LAYER FORCING INCREASES OVER THE
ELEVATED PORTION OF THE FRONT WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BRIEFLY POOL UP TO 1.50 INCHES.
BREEZY AND SHARPLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN POST-FRONTAL ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW 40S. THIS SHOT OF COLD
AIR WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
SENDING TEMPS BACK UP TO NEAR 70 BY MONDAY. PATTERN THEN BECOME MORE
ACTIVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH INTO
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT
THU MAR 26 2026
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO PROCEED SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 4Z FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND 8Z
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A FEW STORMS
WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. CONFIDENCE AFTER 0Z IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE SPECIFIC MENTION
OF STRONGER WINDS IN TAF WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE,
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOWN INTO MVFR/IFR EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH CONVECTION. POST- FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY WITH AN MVFR STRATOCU CLOUD
DECK.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/LADER
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