487
FXUS63 KIWX 031135
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
735 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 77 TO 86
DEGREES, WARMEST WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LAKE MICHIGAN
BEACHES ALONG THE LA PORTE COUNTY, IN AND SOUTHERN BERRIEN
COUNTY, MI SHORELINE EARLY THIS MORNING. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT. FOR DETAILS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GREATLAKES/BEACHHAZARDS
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST POTENTIAL (30-60 PERCENT)
WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THEN LOWER CHANCES (20
TO 40 PERCENT) PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
80S THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WARMEST SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND LINGERS
THROUGH WED. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE HAVE A NICE BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S, LOW-MID 80S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM EDT FOR
LAKE MI BEACHES ALONG THE BERRIEN CO, MI AND LA PORTE CO, IN
SHORELINE. WAVES PER LATEST BUOY OBS WERE AROUND 2-4 FEET WITH 5-7
SECOND PERIODS (45026 COOK NUCLEAR/45168 SOUTH HAVEN, MI; SADLY
45170 AT MICHIGAN CITY, IN IS NOT REPORTING THIS MORNING). ALLOWED
THE SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AS PLANNED AT 5 AM EDT THIS MORNING, AND I
SUSPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE BH.S AT 8 AM EDT AS PLANNED,
WITH WAVES DROPPING TO AROUND 1-2 FEET BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE A
HIGH SWIM RISK FOR LA PORTE/SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY THIS MORNING,
DROPPING TO A MODERATE SWIM RISK AFTER THE STATEMENT EXPIRES.
DESPITE WAVE HEIGHTS DROPPING, STRONG CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE
PRESENT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
BERRIEN/LA PORTE). BY THE 4-5 PM UPDATE THIS AFT/EVE WE SHOULD BE
LOW SWIM RISK AT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE BEACHES. WITH THE HIGH WAVES
AND WINDS, WE HAD SOME UPWELLING AT THE BEACHES-SO WATER TEMPS
DROPPED FROM AROUND 66 DEGREES YESTERDAY TO ABOUT 57 DEGREES TODAY.
PRETTY CHILLY FOR AUGUST!
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT, CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUR UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD AND A
BROAD TROUGH STEMMING FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY TAKES HOLD
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT MOVES IN WED
PM AND STALLS OUT IN NORTHERN INDIANA/NW OH/LOWER MI/IL. BY FRIDAY,
RETURN FLOW STEMMING FROM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL BRING WARM AIR/MOISTURE NORTHWARD, WHICH WILL RE-
ORIENT THE FRONT (ORIGINALLY FROM SW TO NE) TO BE MORE W-E
(GENERALLY ALONG I 80-90). THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DON'T
EXACTLY AGREE ON THE BROADER PATTERN/PRECIPITATION LOCATION IN THIS
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD, SO KEPT CHANCES LIMITED TO 15-30 PERCENT
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING (KSBN) AND POTENTIALLY
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 9-12Z; BOTH SITES). LEFT TONIGHT
OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW KFWA WENT DOWN BRIEFLY TO 6SM BEFORE WINDS
PICKED UP SLIGHTLY. REMOVED THE TEMPO AS THEY HAVE SINCE GONE UP
TO 8SM AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUSPECT THATS THE END. HAVE A
TEMPO UNTIL 13Z FOR KSBN DOWN TO 4SM AS THEY ARE STILL HOVERING
AROUND 5SM (GOT DOWN FOR ONE OB TO 3SM BEFORE BOUNCING BACK UP).
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...MCD
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