277
FXUS63 KIWX 051048
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
648 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIMITED (LESS THAN 0.1").
- A RETURN TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ALLOW WATER LEVELS
TO SLOWLY RECEDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
A WELCOME RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVES TODAY.
FIRST CAA PUSH IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
AROUND -6C. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR LATE DAY WAA AND THIS COUPLED
WITH SOME AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 50F IN OUR SW
WHILE NE ZONES HOLD IN THE LOW 40S. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR NORTH TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BUT BY
AND LARGE DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD. A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES TONIGHT
WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN. BEST MID/UPPER
FORCING SKIRTS TO THE NE BUT SUSPECT MOST AREAS NORTH OF US-30 WILL
SEE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN (<0.1"). A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD EVEN MIX IN
ACROSS OUR FAR NE BUT OF COURSE THERE WILL BE NO ACCUMULATION. SOME
WEAK CAA ARRIVES ON MON BUT SHOULD STILL CLIMB TO AROUND 50F. THE
REAL COLD AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUE WHEN 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO ALMOST -15C OVER MICHIGAN AND NEAR -10C IN OUR CWA. LOWS WILL DIP
WELL INTO THE 20S WITH SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE FAR NE. WHILE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS NOT OFFICIALLY BEGUN, ANY VULNERABLE OUTDOOR
PLANTS SHOULD BE PROTECTED, IF POSSIBLE.
AFTER HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40F ON TUE, TEMPS SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S FOR
WED AND 70S FOR THU AS THE EASTERN CANADA TROUGH EXITS AND SOME
RIDGING/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
WITH OUR NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN. THIS BOUNDARY THEN OSCILLATES
OVER REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH RAISES CONCERN
FOR ADDITIONAL SOAKING RAIN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL SPREAD ON HOW EXACTLY EVERYTHING
EVOLVES IN THIS 6-10 DAY WINDOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH WESTERLY FLOW (WNW TO WSW AT TIMES)
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25-30KTS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF. OTHERWISE,
MVFR DECK (1500-3000FT) AT THE MOMENT LOOKING MORE SCT-BKN THAN
EXPECTED BY THIS POINT, THOUGH I SUSPECT THIS WILL THICKEN ONCE
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH PASSES THROUGH (AS OF THIS WRITING IT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN LAKE
MI AND NORTHERN IL). PREDOMINANTLY WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WNW ONCE AGAIN, WITH GUSTS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, THEN WE
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS BACK WITH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AROUND 7Z-11Z AT
KSBN AND 8-12Z AT KFWA. USED PROB30S AND VCSH FOR NOW GIVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION/MVFR CEILINGS-
ESPECIALLY AT KFWA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...MCD
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