796
FXUS63 KIWX 281040
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
640 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST
OUT OF NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING.
- COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 TO NEAR 60
DEGREES.
- FROST LIKELY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
FLOODING FROM THIS RAIN NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTING ACTIVE WEATHER NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER WAS GENERATING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAD BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, THE ACTIVITY HAD MOVED EAST
OUT OF NORTHWEST OHIO. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED MASS FIELDS WELL AND ALSO
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE TIMING AND THE HANDLING OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELDS. SEASONALLY CHILLY AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS COLD PERIOD INCLUDES FOUR NIGHTS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE 30S. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS FAVORS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AT TIME ARE AHEAD NEXT WEEK.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
MOISTURE-LADEN SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN
STRATUS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT BOTH TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY
IN LIGHT OF UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. TRANSITION TO VFR EXPECTED BY
18Z (PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO LATER AT KFWA) AS DRIER AIR AND
MIXING FINALLY ERODE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN JUST ABOVE 3 KFT THROUGH 12Z.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD
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