498
FXUS63 KIWX 251721
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
121 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, ARRIVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY.
- BECOMING HOT AND HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
HEAT INDICIES NEAR 100 AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS WILL IMPACT THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE WE SHIFT TO AN OVERALL
DRIER AND MUCH WARMER PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY NEXT
WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN NW LOWER MI WITH A COLD FRONT
(MORE OF A DEWPOINT FRONT AND WIND SHIFT) MOVING THROUGH OUR FAR NW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A LINE OF CU IS APPARENT ON VIS SATELLITE AND
THESE COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND EVENTUALLY BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS AS IT MOVES SE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM
COULD DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SOME AGITATED CU HAS
BEEN LOCATED NEAR A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY (MAINLY SE OF I-69). NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND MAYBE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN BRIEFLY WITH THE FRONT TEMPORARILY STALLING
TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE ALLOWS THE FRONT TO
PUSH BACK NORTH. STILL SOME VARIANCE IN MODELS ON HOW FAR NORTH AN
AREA OF OVERRUNNING RAIN/RAINSHOWERS (ISOLATED THUNDER) GETS AS THE
MAIN SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL IN. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN RELATED
TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US 30 AND MORESO US-24 WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF ONE HALF TO 1" POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH THEN TAPERING QUICKLY TO THE
NORTH. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK,
SO WE SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR FOR THIS SYSTEM.
AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT, THE SEMI ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION
TO MASSIVE RIDGING ALOFT AND AN EVENTUAL 592 TO 596 DM UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BEING CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY NEXT WEEK. ALL SIGNS STILL
POINT TOWARDS A RATHER DRAMATIC WARM UP (MUCH MORE SUMMER LIKE)
STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY, BUT MORESO TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT
HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE LIKIHOOD
OF CONVECTION IS MINIMAL, GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, A STRAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE AND IS DEPICTED BY THE
SPURIOUS POPS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KSBN WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD. AT KFWA, THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A BRIEF DROP
TO MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY
DEVELOP. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ANY
MENTION TO TAFS. RAIN CHANCES, AS WELL AS FLIGHT IMPACTS RETURN
TO KFWA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL IN. HAVE KEPT IMPACTS CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL EXISTING NEAR/AFTER 18Z. KSBN MAY ALSO SEE
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE SO HAVE
MAINTAINED VFR FOR NOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER
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