002
FXUS63 KIWX 032334
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
734 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
AND NORTHERN INDIANA. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL WORSEN ANY ONGOING FLOODING.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
- ON SATURDAY, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO.
- COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH PRIMARILY
DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
A MODEST COLD FRONT IS DRAPED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THROUGH ABOUT LAFAYETTE. WIND DIRECTION (SOUTHEAST) AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ARE THE PRIMARY INDICATORS OF THIS FRONT THAT
SERVES AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO SUNSET. A
SUBTLE CAP IS IN PLACE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, BUT THROUGH TIME AS
THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH, THE CAP LIFTS PERMITTING THESE
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, SHEAR IS MODEST
AT ABOUT 25-35 KNOTS WHILE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS
PLENTIFUL AROUND 1,500 J/KG (MUCAPE). LAPSE RATES AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARE LACKLUSTER WHICH LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINING DAYTIME HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE A SLIGHT FAVOR TOWARD HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT THE
FREEZING LAYER REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AND RECENT STORMS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO ACHIEVE MUCH DEPTH/HEIGHT.
TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A 45-KNOT
850MB JET TAKES SHAPE ACROSS EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN. THIS WILL
PERMIT LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO TAKE SHAPE AND HAZARDS WILL
TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. INSTABILITY WANES QUICKLY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, LIMITING THE OVERALL DURATION OF ANY SEVERE
STORMS. FLOW BECOMES BOUNDARY-PARELLEL WHICH INCREASES THE RISK OF
PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN BENEATH TRAINING STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DEEP CLOUD TOPS, MINIMAL 500MB DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, AND
CONTINUED PWATS NEAR THE DAILY MAX. RECENT RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
BETWEEN THE US 30 AND US 24 CORRIDORS, ALONG WITH RAIN LAST NIGHT OF
OVER 1" IN SOUTHWEST MI FURTHER TIPPED THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF A FLOOD
WATCH. NORTHWEST OHIO WAS CONSIDERED, BUT 24-HOUR RAIN TOTALS ENDING
THIS MORNING WERE MINIMAL AND THE COLD FRONT DOESN'T ARRIVE THERE
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY. NW OHIO COULD BE ADDED IN THE FUTURE
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. WITHIN THE WATCH, ABOUT 1" TO PERHAPS 1.5" OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS OVER MICHIANA.
TURNING NOW TO THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA DURING
THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, IN NORTHWEST OHIO, DESTABLIZATION MAY
OCCUR TO PERMIT A STRENGTHENING OF STORMS OR DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
IN THE WARM SECTOR. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A LIMITING FACTOR,
BUT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR COULD PERMIT DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.
SHARPLY COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A BREAK
FROM SEEMINGLY DAILY THUNDERSTORMS. A TROUGH TAKES SHAPE WHICH
ALLOWS A CLIPPER TO RACE THROUGH MONDAY, BRINING A 20% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TOWARD 60 DEGREES. THE WEATHER PATTERN
COULD BECOME ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT. A
VERY ACTIVE TAF PERIOD IS JUST AHEAD WITH MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY PREVAILING. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THROUGH ABOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR RIDES OVER THE FRONT AND THEN REMAINS IN PLACES AS
DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSE THE AREA. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...NONE.
MI...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ078>080-177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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