855
FXUS63 KIWX 050602
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
202 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK.
- AFTER STARTING OUT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS,
HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TAKE OVER FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
- COLD TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN TO THE 30S FOR
SOME AREAS NORTH OF US-6.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
BEHIND THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT, A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR
MOVES IN. THAT ALLOWS TODAY'S HIGHS IN THE 70S, GENERALLY SOUTH OF
US-6, TO DROP BACK INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE FOR MONDAY. WHEN WE GET
THE BETTER FROST SCENARIOS, IT'S USUALLY ON THE HEELS OF A
TEMPERATURE UPSWING LIKE HAPPENS AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK THIS WEEK.
I USUALLY LIKE TO SEE AT LEAST 3 HOURS OF 36 TO 38F TEMPERATURES
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TO GET A GOOD SETUP
FOR FROST. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN MONDAY
NIGHT AND THIS SETS UP THE CHANCE FOR MID TO UPPER CLOUDINESS AT
LEAST IN AREAS WEST OF IN-15 (IF YOU CONTINUED IT INTO MI) AND NORTH
OF US-6. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO INDICATE SOME DECOUPLING,
BUT THOSE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR A FEW HOURS MAY STILL BE HARD TO COME
BY. THE NASA SPORT LIS ACTUALLY SHOWS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT 0-100 CM
SOIL MOISTURE PERCENTILE UP IN ST JOSEPH TO HILLSDALE AND LAGRANGE
TO FULTON OH COUNTIES, BUT WE'VE ADDED RAIN TO THAT AREA IN THE LAST
WEEK OR SO AND THIS MAY MAKE RADIATIONAL COOLING NOT ENTIRELY AS
EFFICIENT AS MAY BE NEEDED. THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS WOULD STILL
POINT TO AREAS NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FROST, BUT THINK MORE PATCHY FROST AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD AND THIS
MAY BE RELEGATED TO OUTLYING AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM THAT, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES. A DRY COLD FRONT WASHES OUT
AND STALLS NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME PERIOD BEFORE PUSHING
BACK NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS RAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT ITS MOISTURE COLUMN
LOOKS RATHER DRY OVERHEAD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COULD COME
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT MAY WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS AS A DEEP CUTOFF LOW MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BRINGING MOISTURE WITH IT. IT HAS TIMES OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE MOISTURE OUT, BUT
LITTLE INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...MCD
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