726
FXUS63 KIWX 071815
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
115 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
- MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS VERY LOW THIS
FAR OUT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURN BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT
BUT WARM BACK TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING POSITIVELY-
TILED MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ENTERING OUR CWA. MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE. HI-RES FORECAST SOUNDINGS FURTHER SHOW A
SHARP WARM NOSE AROUND 750MB, LIKELY DUE TO PASSAGE OF MORNING
CONVECTION. SOME MINOR SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT INVERSION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME AND NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, WINDS IN THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE AROUND 45 KNOTS
SO EXPECT THERE WILL BE A FEW 40-45MPH GUSTS AS THIS FRONT PASSES.
GIVEN THE SHORT WINDOW AT ANY ONE LOCATION, WILL PLAN TO HANDLE WITH
SPS'S ALONG THE LINE AS NEEDED VS. A WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OUR SE ZONES AROUND 00Z WITH DRY WEATHER THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT DROP INTO THE 30S BUT
TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY ON SUN AS MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES HIGHLY ZONAL
AND WAA SLOWLY RAMPS UP IN STRONG WSW FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70F ON
MON AND WELL INTO THE 70S ON TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
TUE NIGHT/WED BEARS WATCHING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PACIFIC
JET/TROUGH. THE NET RESULT IS WHAT BECOMES A VERY STRONG, NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WITH NEAR 988MB SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO QUEBEC. AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE WARM FRONT
TUE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE FROM OUR CWA INTO CENTRAL
MI. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH
AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. INSTABILITY IS MUCH MORE
QUESTIONABLE, ESPECIALLY IF THE BEST ASCENT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
06Z OR LATER AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY WED. HARD TO NAIL DOWN MESOSCALE
DETAILS THIS FAR OUT BUT TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED IS CERTAINLY WORTH
WATCHING. COLDER AIR RETURNS QUICKLY LATE WED AND PRECIP MAY EVEN
END AS SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS THEN POSSIBLE ON
FRI BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LOT OF VARIABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAD THE INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWING THROUGH BEHIND, BUT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MVFR
PREVAILING AT SBN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT IFR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD
AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT. EARLY VFR AT FWA TRENDS DOWN INTO MVFR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AM. THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES HELPS THIS OUT. A RETURN TO VFR
LOOKS MORE LIKELY MID TO LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY.
WIND-WISE, GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FRONT, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SPORADIC GUSTS APPROACHING
THAT MAGNITUDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL WITH SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...ROLLER
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