935
FXUS63 KIWX 081757
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
157 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THURSDAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING SOME BRIEF COOLING FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS MID 70S TO AROUND 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO THIS WEEKEND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC ISSUES WITH HIGHEST
FORECASTED RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 0.50" ACROSS NW INDIANA/SW
LOWER MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT, WATER LEVELS ON MANY RIVERS,
STREAMS AND LAKES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHILE THERE WILL BE A FEW BUMPS IN THE ROAD, OVERALL A WARMER PERIOD
IS IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR SO. THE INITIAL BUMPS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PASS MAINLY
TO OUR NORTH, GIVING THE AREA GLANCING BLOWS OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE FIRST ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A CLOSED
UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THU. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUFFICIENT
TO ALLOW AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST FOCUS
RESIDING ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND OUTRUNS THE BETTER LIFT FROM THE DEPARTING WAVE. OVERALL
QPF STILL APPEARS TO BE A TENTH OR LESS. THE FRONT WILL STALL
OUT NEAR/SOUTH OF US- 24, AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL BRING SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH IT (PWATS CLOSER TO 1" VS AROUND A HALF INCH WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM). THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE FOCUSED BETWEEN 6Z FRI AND 00Z SAT.
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE HIGHER, OVERALL QPF
SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MAJOR ISSUES WITH LOCAL RIVERS
(OUTSIDE OF MAYBE SLOWING THE SPEED OF THE DROP IN LEVELS). A
COMBINATION OF LIMITED CAA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE
A LARGER GRADIENT IN HIGHS ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
50 NEAR LAKE MI AND INTO THE 60S SOUTH OF US-24. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FROST IF SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY.
A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL THEN COMMENCE OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN US,
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING SW FLOW INTO THE REGION. BY SUNDAY, WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE (INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE SOME
80S). WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST, A SERIES OF
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BRINGING HIGHER MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE SOME CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN DEPENDING ON THE DAY TO DAY EVENT EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF EACH SYSTEM.
AREA RIVERS, STREAM AND LAKES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A STEADY
LOWERING OF LEVELS WITH ADDITIONAL QPF NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLOWER DOWNWARD TREND IN SOME RIVER BASINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH IT HAS
BEEN BREEZY TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20 TO
25 KTS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST NOW TO SOUTH
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDED STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT; THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 09-15Z AT KSBN AND 12-18Z
AT KFWA ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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