942
FXUS63 KIWX 200630
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
230 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MODERATE SWIM RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR BERRIEN COUNTY BEACHES
TODAY. WAVES OF 2-3 FT AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE 0.5-1.5" OF RAIN WITH
POCKETS OF 2" OR MORE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-24.
- HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SHEARING OUT JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. A FEW
SHOWERS NOTED IN RADAR/SURFACE OBS BUT DRY/STABLE LOW LEVELS AND
WEAK FORCING KEEPING COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS VERY LIMITED. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR SE ZONES RIGHT AROUND 12Z WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. PEAK SOLSTICE SUN ANGLE WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PUSH HIGHS
VERY NEAR 80F DESPITE COOL-ISH 850MB TEMPS.
LATE SUNDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS A
MORE FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RIGHT
ENTRANCE UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL YIELD INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION INTO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. EARLIER NOTED TREND TOWARD A SURFACE LOW TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF OUR CWA CONTINUED IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE AND LOWERS THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THERE ARE STILL A FEW EXCEPTIONS (SUCH AS THE 3KM
NAM) WHICH STILL LIFT THE SURFACE LOW INTO OUR AREA. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY STILL BEARS WATCHING, THIS IS LOOKING MORE LIKE AN
OUTLIER. OF SLIGHTLY GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN IN OUR SE ZONES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
WIDESPREAD 0.5-1.5" FOR OUR CWA (LOWEST NORTH) WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR POCKETS OF 2" OR MORE IN OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK LIMITS EVEN THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THOUGH WITH POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PW
VALUES STAY GENERALLY BELOW 2" OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR S/SE. A FLOOD
WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF OUR SOUTH BUT
UNCERTAINTY WITH INSTABILITY/RAINFALL AMOUNTS RESULTS IN CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW FOR WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. OUR FORECAST AREA ALSO
LUCKILY MISSED OUT ON THE VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH FELL OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA WED NIGHT AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1-2" OF RAIN WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS.
SHOWERS EXIT MON MORNING AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE.
PERSISTENT NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN
COOL WNW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH FRI. SEVERAL WEAK
MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL ALSO YIELD PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
A FEW STORMS MID-LATE WEEK. A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA COULD BRING A
FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS BUT DRY LOW LEVELS WILL
ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS AND THE RISK OF THUNDER APPEARS VERY LOW.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GUST IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT
KFWA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...AGD
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