267  
FXUS63 KIWX 190929  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
529 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, ALLOWING  
FOR QUIET AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. THIS MORNING THERE WILL  
SOME VERY PATCHY LOW LYING FOG, HOWEVER MUCH LESS COVERAGE THAN  
YESTERDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE REGION ON  
SATURDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. TUESDAY THERE MAY BE A  
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 69. HIGH  
PRESSURE RETURNS BEGINNING TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG  
WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
 
AS OF 07Z, SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE GENERALLY RANGING  
FROM ABOUT 2 TO 6 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE NARROWER  
DEPRESSIONS IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE  
RIDGE IS CENTERED FURTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE  
FORMATION OF SOME PATCHY LOW LYING GROUND FOG FURTHER EAST THIS  
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE  
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 3 MILES BUT GENERALLY VISIBILITIES WILL  
STAY ABOVE 5 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS AND THIS IS MORE TO THE FACT  
THAT THE FOG IS MAINLY THE LOW LYING VARIETY.  
 
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY IS ON TAP ALBEIT A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH  
THE RIDGING STILL IN THE DRIVERS SEAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
RANGE FROM ABOUT 79 NEAR THE LAKE TO 86 FURTHER INLAND. CLOUDS  
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE APPROACHING WELL  
ADVERTISED LOW CREEPING IT'S WAY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
 
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD JUST A  
BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND  
AFTER 8AM A FEW SHOWERS MAY BEGIN IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PARTS  
OF THE CWA AND WILL GRADUALLY MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.  
SHOWERS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM.  
 
THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVERHEAD WILL  
SUPPLY THE INSTABILITY, AROUND 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF MU CAPE, AND  
LIFT HOWEVER WITH VERY MINIMAL SHEAR VALUES, 20KTS OR LESS, DUE TO  
THE FACT THE SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACKED WILL KEEP THE STORMS  
TAME. OF COURSE ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN BE DANGEROUS DUE TO THE  
LIGHTNING BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE BETTER CHANCES  
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME  
PERIODS.  
 
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION AND THE BEST  
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY  
MORNING ACROSS THE CWA. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE BETTER CHANCES WILL  
BE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. BY MONDAY, A FEW SHOWERS AND  
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN THE  
BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE  
DISSIPATING SYSTEM AS IT MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. STORM TOTALS LOOK TO  
RANGE FROM ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN  
INCH. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH WHERE THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS.  
 
BY LATE MONDAY, SHORTWAVE RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BEGINS TO ESTABLISH  
ITSELF INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND  
ANOTHER SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH AT  
LEAST WEDNESDAY. CURRENT SBN NORMAL HIGH IS 81 DEGREES AND FWA IS  
SITTING AT 82. A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 519 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2022  
 
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUED OVER THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WAS  
BRINGING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY TO  
AREAS OF MOSTLY LIGHT GROUND FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT. ADDED  
MVFR FOG AT FWA EARLIER AND WILL LEAVE IN FOR NOW GIVEN TEMPS  
FALLING BELOW CROSS-OVER TEMPS. TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS OVER  
NORTHEAST INDIANA WERE AT OR CLOSE TO ZERO. IN ADDITION, THERE  
WAS VERY STRONG SUPPORT FOR MVFR FOG FROM CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY.  
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE  
HIGH LATER TODAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT DAYTIME SCATTERED CUMULUS AT  
ABOUT 050.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN  
SHORT TERM...ANDERSEN  
LONG TERM...ANDERSEN  
AVIATION...SKIPPER  
 
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