126
FXUS63 KIWX 102231
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
631 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
SOUTH OF US-24 ON SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- LESS HUMID AND MAINLY DRY, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
- DRY AND TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD FROM MI THROUGH THE
AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OUT IN FRONT OF THE FRONT, THE NAM
HAS 2000+ J/KG OF MUCAPE FOR STORMS TO FEED OFF OF. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE LOW LEVEL JET IS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THIS KEEPS ANY
SEVERE THREAT LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY, DCAPE IS LOWER THAN 1000 J/KG
AND ANY FORCING APPEARS TO BE WEAK DESPITE THE COLD FRONT'S
PROXIMITY TO THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS ARE BETWEEN 65 AND 70F AND 850
MB DEW POINTS DO SURPASS 10C SO THE LOW LEVEL COLUMN IS MOIST. AS A
RESULT, STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE TO COME FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AND CELL INTERACTIONS. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY DESPITE THE COLD
FRONT NOW BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE NAM FORMS OVER 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE FOR RAIN, BUT AGAIN, THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOWHERE NEAR THE
AREA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE AREA IS ALSO MUCH DRIER OVERALL,
BUT SOME OF THE UPTICK IN MOISTURE COMES FROM AN MCS THAT RUNS WEST
TO EAST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THINK THIS COULD STILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
GENERAL THUNDER AND SHOWERS AROUND, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US-24.
OTHERWISE, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY, DRIER AIR AND MID LEVEL RIDGING AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR A REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD, IT
ACTUALLY BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE BETTER
THETA-E PLUME ACTUALLY COMES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGH HUMIDITY (SFC DEW POINTS OVER 70F)
COME IN AND COMBINE WITH THE BETTER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONDUCIVE
TO 90F HIGHS. THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THE HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE
SLIGHTLY REMOVED (WEST OF I-69) FROM WHERE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES
RESIDE (EAST OF I-69) SO THAT WE ACTUALLY STRUGGLE TO ACHIEVE HEAT
HEADLINES. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO STRUGGLE WITH BRINGING IN HIGH ENOUGH
HUMIDITY FOR IT, WHICH MAY BE BECAUSE WE'RE ADVECTING IN AN AIRMASS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD OF THE GULF AREA.
BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE PLACEMENT OF THE
PEAKS OF THE TROUGH AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CONUS WILL MATTER IN
DECIDING WHERE RIDGE RIDERS HAPPEN, OR EVEN IF THEY DO. THE ECMWF
HAS A RIDGE RIDER FOR LATER THU OF NEXT WEEK, WHEREAS THE GFS BRINGS
IN ENERGY FROM THE GULF REGION. AT LEAST THEY AGREE THAT IT'LL RAIN
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THU AND FRI.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG US 30 WILL SLOWLY
CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TOMORROW. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US
24. BOTH KFWA AND KSBN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. KFWA IS LIKELY TO GET IN ON INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND POTENTIALLY HIGH-END MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 3000 FT
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE
VICINITY. CURRENTLY, THE NBM PROBABILITIES ARE ABOUT 20-30%.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE NORTH, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE FROM THE EAST
STARTING IN THE MORNING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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