671
FXUS63 KIWX 111802
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
202 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
- STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AT TIMES.
- A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN, SNOW, GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A CHANCE
FOR STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- TURNING MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
AREAS OF LIGHT DEFORMATION RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY ENDING WITH SNOW
NORTHWEST (NO ACCUMULATION) AS COLDER/DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH OTHERWISE TONIGHT
WITH THURSDAY A COOL YET PLEASANT DAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.
A HIGHLY DYNAMIC NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH A DEEPENING SUB 990
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A RATHER IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD. PROBS FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE NBM ARE HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY WIND EVENT, WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
SUGGESTING TIMES OF WARNING LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY. LEADING CORRIDOR OF DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW MIXED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
OTHERWISE, BEST CHANCES (60%) NORTH OF THE MI BORDER.
THE NEXT VIGOROUS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST SUNDAY, AND THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. LEADING
WAA WING AND CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS LIKELY BYPASSES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA,
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MI BORDER WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE MAIN SLUG OF RAIN AND CHANCES FOR
EMBEDDED THUNDER ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
ASCENT PLUME AND DEEPENING SFC REFLECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER THEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MI.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AND HAD JUST PASSED
FWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WERE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER ALL OF FAR NORTHERN INDIANA.
HAVE INCLUDED THESE STRONG WINDS IN THE TAF SITES WITH GUSTS
ABOVE 30 KNOTS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA; AS A RESULT, WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS, SHOWERS WHERE
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS OVER IL WAS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WILL REACH THE SBN TERMINAL EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN THE HIGH EXPECTED COVERAGE IN THE
PRECIPITATION, WENT WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AT
THE SBN TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, THE IFR/MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTERED OUT AROUND OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
REACHES THE AREA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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