817
FXUS63 KIWX 221042
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
642 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH JUST A
LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER TODAY.
- LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED ON SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY. THOSE VISITING THE BEACH ARE
ADVISED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER AND AWAY FROM PIERS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE WED INTO THU AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
1005MB SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IN AND WILL
SHIFT INTO OH LATER THIS MORNING. A FAIRLY COMPLICATED MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH ONE REMNANT VORT MAX RIPPLING THOUGH OUR CWA
WHILE A MORE PROMINENT WAVE CROSSES THE TN VALLEY AND BECOMES THE
FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATER TODAY. VERY
IMPRESSIVE (ESP BY JUNE STANDARDS) DEFORMATION/FGEN AROUND 850MB ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SURFACE LOW CAPITALIZING ON SOME MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN
ROUGHLY ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE TOLL ROAD CURRENTLY WHERE AN
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING THOUGH WITH FOCUS SHIFTING TO LOWER PORTIONS OF THE FRONT IN
OUR CENTRAL/SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE LOW EXITS
ENTIRELY AROUND 12Z. SOME POCKETS OF 2-3+" REMAIN POSSIBLE EVEN IN
OUR CENTRAL/SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BUT OVERALL RAINFALL
RATES HAVEN'T BEEN EXCESSIVE AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN ISOLATED
AREAS OF MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE BULK
OF THIS RAIN SHOULD EXIT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THAT REMNANT VORT MAX
PASSES OVERHEAD BUT COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIMITED.
DRY/QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED. COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW RESULTS IN HIGHS ONLY MID/UPPER 70S ON TUE DESPITE
NEARLY FULL JUNE SUN. NEXT MIDLEVEL WAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATE WED AND SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW IS ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THIS FRONT WILL TAKE WELL
INTO THU BEFORE FULLY CLEARING OUR AREA. THETA-E RETURN AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY IS LIMITED FOR AREA, ESPECIALLY GIVEN CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS FOR A PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS BOTH WED EVENING AND
THU AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW THE SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW. THIS FRONT IS
THEN SLATED TO STALL SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF OUR AREA THU NIGHT-EARLY
SAT. THE EXACT LOCATION STILL SHOWS SOME VARIABILITY IN LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BUT TREND IS FOR JUST ENOUGH OF
A SOUTHWARD PUSH TO KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THE
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SURGE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND
AS A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS REMAIN HAZY THIS FAR OUT BUT GENERAL
PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST A FEW STORMS WITH THE WARM FRONT
BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO A HOT AND DRY PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW QUICKLY
PULLING EAST. RAIN HAS LARGELY ENDED AT KSBN AND WILL END AT
KFWA WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL STEADILY
IMPROVE CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE CURRENT CONDITIONS AT
KSBN ARE VFR, UPSTREAM OBS AND MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST AT
LEAST SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING. IFR
CEILINGS AT KFWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR NO LATER THAN 21Z
(POSSIBLY EARLIER). CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ046.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...AGD
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