364   
FXUS63 KIWX 012325  
AFDIWX  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
725 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
  
- SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS  
  WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS POSSIBLE. SOME SMALL HAIL IS ALSO   
  POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
  
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON  
  THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE   
  INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. SOME   
  THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS  
  FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO.  
  
- WINDY ON WEDNESDAY EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH   
  GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.  
  
  
   
DISCUSSION  
  
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025  
  
LOW PRESSURE EMERGES FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES THIS EVENING RACES   
NORTHEAST BRINGING US THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER   
WEDNESDAY. PRECEDING THIS, SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET   
THIS EVENING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING, THOUGH A LARGE WEDGE OF   
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION   
GUIDANCE STRIKES ME AS OVERZEALOUS WITH SUCH EARLY PRECIP.   
THEREFORE, HAVE LEANED ON THE EXISTING FORECAST TO DELAY THE ONSET   
OF RAINFALL SOMEWHAT. RAIN IS MOST WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.   
  
THE RISK OF THUNDER IS LOW OVERNIGHT WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY   
ABSENT PRIOR TO ABOUT 5AM EDT. THEREAFTER, A POOL OF 500 J/KG OR SO   
ARRIVES COLOCATED WITH ABOUT 50 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. SOUNDINGS   
APPEAR TO BE CAPPED WEDNESDAY MORNING (UNSURPRISINGLY) WHICH WILL   
LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN THE MORNING.  
  
THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF CONCERN IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.   
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MEDIUM-HIGH IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING AS A LINE   
OF STORMS RACES EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING   
STILL VARIES SOMEWHAT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT GENERALLY FAVORS A   
WINDOW OF 4PM TO 11PM EDT. DUE TO THE STRONG WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED   
WITH THE LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL JET, RECOVERY FROM MORNING   
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS QUITE LIKELY. ALL HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT   
A CLOSER INSPECTION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAKES ME WONDER IF LCLS   
NEAR 1000M AND SURFACE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH (VS SOUTHEAST) WILL   
REDUCE THE TORNADO THREAT SLIGHTLY. THROUGH THAT LENS, AS INDICATED   
BY THE SPC OUTLOOK, THE TORNADO PROBABILITIES ARE INDEED HIGHER JUST   
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, ALL AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR   
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND EVEN TORNADOES WEDNESDAY   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
  
TWO ADDITIONAL NOTES FOR WEDNESDAY...1) IN THE WAKE OF MORNING   
SHOWERS, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON. WIND   
GUSTS TO 40 MPH AREA EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24.   
A WIND ADVISORY WAS PONDERED WITH NEIGHBORS, BUT THE DURATION LOOKS   
BRIEF AND PROBABILITIES OF 45 MPH OR MORE IS LIMITED SPATIALLY. WILL   
PUNT TO THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT FOR CONSIDERATION.  2) DETROIT HOISTED A   
FLOOD WATCH AND THUS ONE WAS CONSIDERED FOR OUR AREA AS WELL. FLASH   
FLOOD GUIDANCE ACCORDING TO THE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS ABOUT   
2 INCHES IN 6 HOURS. MOST OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO SEE ABOUT 1.5   
TO 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS, AND SOME AREAS 1 INCH IN 6 HOURS. SO, WE   
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FLOOD RISK BUT THERE ARE NO FLOOD   
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.  
  
THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERE WEATHER HANGS-UP ACROSS   
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND IS THE FOCAL   
POINT FOR NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY,   
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE   
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING DOSE OF COLD AIR MONDAY.   
  
  
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/  
  
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025  
  
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING   
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES TO RETURN AND FOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DROP   
INTO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND LOW  
CEILINGS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING DURING THE MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON OR EVENING BRINGS BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.   
ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT LLWS AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING INTO   
WEDNESDAY AND GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KTS THROUGH THE TAF   
PERIOD AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN.  
  
  
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
IN...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.  
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.  
  
  
  
  
  
DISCUSSION...BROWN  
AVIATION...ROLLER  
 
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