132
FXUS63 KIWX 062251
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
651 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST COVERAGE (30-50%)
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE
24 IN NORTHERN INDIANA.
- SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY, BUT SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN THAT OF YESTERDAY.
- DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH A
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN OHIO DIRECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE CAPE VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG, BUT BULK SHEAR
WILL BE WEAK AT ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. THEREFORE, SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO WEAK,
WHICH TRANSLATES TO SLOW STORM MOTION. THIS, COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.75 INCHES, COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS YESTERDAY. EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE, DUE TO LAKE ENHANCED
CONVECTION AS A RESULT OF VERY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES OF 78 TO
80 DEGREES. ANY LINGERING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
SAGS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST, AND WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP A LITTLE BIT IN
VICINITY OF THE DEPARTING LOW, WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PATCHY GROUND
FOG WILL THEREFORE BE MORE NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
RAIN WILL RETURN THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY
BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SATURDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS, LIGHT
WINDS, AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS
ON TUESDAY. ANY FOG POTENTIAL MAY BE THWARTED WITH THE DRIER AIR
PUSHING INTO THE AREA SO CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW ON THIS
EVOLUTION SO DID LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COBB
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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