087
FXUS63 KIWX 080600
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
200 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S, BUT SOME UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING IN LOWER MI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
DESPITE SOME AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER HEIGHTS, A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL STILL IMPACT THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR 2 (NON-SEVERE). GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF, RESULTING IN ANY PRECIP TENDING TO BE
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. UPSTREAM SFC AND RADAR OBS SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM
SE IOWA INTO CENTRAL IL. A SECOND AREA OF WEAKER RETURNS
(APPEARS TO BE VIRGA AT THIS TIME) EXTENDED FROM EASTERN WI INTO
CENTRAL LOWER MI. SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THE
SOUTHERN AREA (UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH), WHICH WILL HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCE TO BRING SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA (GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-24). HAVE KEPT
POPS RATHER SUBDUED IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR THE TIME BEING WITH
INITIAL RETURNS LIKELY TO NOT REACH THE GROUND FOR AN HOUR OR 2.
HINTS OF ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED BY SEVERAL
MODELS WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SAME AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME CHC POPS AS A
RESULT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA.
A BRIEF LULL WILL OCCUR FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES
WITH ALL SIGNS POINTING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE
ARRIVING. AREAS SOUTH OF US-24 WILL BE FAVORED ONCE AGAIN, BUT
SOME INDICATIONS OF A MORE NORTHWARD TREND ARE SUGGESTED IN A
FEW MODELS. HRRR EVEN DEVELOPS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP. SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE TO POPS,
BUT OVERALL LIKELY POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH, TAPERING OFF
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT MAY HELP WITH
THUNDER CHANCES SO SLGT CHC MENTION LEFT IN.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE AND SFC FRONT DIVE SOUTH LATE SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MOTHER'S DAY APPEARS
TO BE MAINLY DRY (MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS SE IN THE MORNING) WITH
DRY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON, LINGERING INTO MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DO EXIST NEXT WEEK AS THE SEMI ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES.
EACH WAVE WILL RAISE HAVOC ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH 60S DOMINATING MUCH OF THE PERIOD (SOME OCCASIONAL 70S IN
BETWEEN WAVES). MORNING LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE IN THE
UPPER 30S IN NE AREAS, BUT WAY TO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY FROST
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A LULL IN THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH DEPARTURE OF INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
STRONGER LOW LEVEL FGEN FORCING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE LINING UP BACK TO THE WEST FROM KMUT TO KPNT IN THE VICINITY
OF LEFTOVER STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT. ADVECTIVE
FORCING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS, WHILE NORTHERN INDIANA
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE A BREAK IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
THIS SHOULD YIELD LOW PROBABILITIES OF RAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK. BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN, PARTICULARLY AT KFWA WHICH WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH ADVECTIVE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHARP LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WILL ALSO TRACK INTO NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON
ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. KSBN SHOULD BE POSITIONED FAR ENOUGH
NORTH OF THE FORCING FOR JUST LOW PROBS OF RAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 MENTION
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER MID-LATE
EVENING AT KFWA AS COOL FRONT FEATURE SHIFTS ACROSS NE INDIANA.
AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE AT KFWA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT VERY
WEAK AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY MAKE THIS PROBABILITY QUITE LOW
(~10%). SOME STRATUS AND FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEHIND SFC
TROUGH FEATURE TONIGHT, WITH BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
KFWA FOR LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI
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