291
FXUS63 KIWX 120523
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
123 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
- STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AT TIMES.
- A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN, SNOW, GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A CHANCE
FOR STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- TURNING MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW SW TO NE BANDS OF SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE
PRECIP CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUING FALLING.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE ALLOWING MOST OF THE PRECIP WEST
OF I-69 TO BE SNOW, BUT GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE AND RECENT WARM
SPELL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST
WILL BE NEEDED TO LINGER THE LIGHT PRECIP JUST A BIT LONGER BUT
BY 3 OR 4Z LATEST EVERYTHING SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA WITH
SOME CLEARING STARTING FROM THE NW. GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
AREAS OF LIGHT DEFORMATION RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY ENDING WITH SNOW
NORTHWEST (NO ACCUMULATION) AS COLDER/DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH OTHERWISE TONIGHT
WITH THURSDAY A COOL YET PLEASANT DAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.
A HIGHLY DYNAMIC NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH A DEEPENING SUB 990
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A RATHER IMPRESSIVE WIND
FIELD. PROBS FROM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE NBM ARE HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY WIND EVENT, WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
SUGGESTING TIMES OF WARNING LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY. LEADING CORRIDOR OF DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW MIXED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
OTHERWISE, BEST CHANCES (60%) NORTH OF THE MI BORDER.
THE NEXT VIGOROUS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST SUNDAY, AND THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. LEADING
WAA WING AND CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS LIKELY BYPASSES NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA,
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MI BORDER WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE MAIN SLUG OF RAIN AND CHANCES FOR
EMBEDDED THUNDER ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
ASCENT PLUME AND DEEPENING SFC REFLECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDY AND SHARPLY COLDER THEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MI.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
A DRY BUT BREEZY DAY IS AHEAD. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CURRENT
CLOUD DECK OVER THE AREA CAN BE SEEN AT KSBN. CLEARING WILL
COMMENCE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FROM 09Z AND ONWARD. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS TODAY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
20-25 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
UPDATE...FISHER
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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