170
FXUS63 KIWX 052306
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
706 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
INTESTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
- CHANCES (30-70 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST AT TIMES INTO THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY (20-40
PERCENT).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD DID FURTHER TREND LOWER WITH POPS AND
FURTHER PUSHED BACK TIMING AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS ABNORMAL SYNOPTIC SETUP. THE SLOW
MOVING, WEAKENING, AND WASHED OUT COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
FAIRLY LOW AMOUNTS OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY LESS THAN 2000
J/KG IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL AT ALL BY GUIDANCE. THERE STILL
IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES IF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS RICH IN
MOISTURE WITH PWATS 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AVAILABLE. HOWEVER, THE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND HIT OR MISS
WITH THE SHOWERS NATURE. WPC STILL HAS PORTIONS OF OUR ARE UNDER
A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS EVENT SURE HAS THE EARMARKS OF
HAVING BUST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
AND A MAJORITY OF THE TROUGHS ENERGY BEING PUSHED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA INTO CANADA.
A PRETTY STAGNANT PATTERN SEEMS TO SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH
TROUGHING REMAINING IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND
CYCLONIC TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TREND STABLE WITH SEASONAL
VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
ALSO BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME BUT WITH THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE WILL BE AGAIN A HIT OR MISS COVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
RADAR SHOWS A NARROW LINES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTERING
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AS OF THE TOP OF THE
HOUR. WHILE THE LINE IS WEAKENING, A STRONG STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR AT KSBN, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THESE CHANCES WILL OCCUR. HAVE ADDED A
FEW PROB30 GROUPS IN AT KSBN AND KFWA; BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
STORMS AT KSBN WILL BE BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z THURSDAY WHILE THE
BEST CHANCES AT KFWA START AROUND 12Z THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. IN ANY STORMS, MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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