146
FXUS63 KIWX 111749
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
149 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20% TO 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN STATE LINE.
- VERY WARM AND BREEZY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30
MPH AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.
- INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY EVENING (40% CHANCE) THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING (60% CHANCE) BUT REMAINING WARM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO AN INCOMING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT ATOP A
STRONG SOUTHEAST US UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE RESULTING IN A 20% TO 40%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN MI BORDER. A SPECIAL
SOUNDING FROM THE STUDENTS AT VALPARAISO UNIVERSITY LATE THIS
MORNING REVEALED A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND PLENTY OF DRY
AIR; PWAT OF 0.45". UPSTREAM DEW POINTS IN THE MID-40S ARE BETTER
THAN OUR LOCAL DEW POINT THIS HOUR, THUS, IMPROVED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND FORCING WILL BE NEEDED PRIOR TO RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND.
WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30
MPH, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAINST SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THIS ACTIVITY, LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING, DOES NOT APPEAR TO
POSE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK OWING TO AN ABSENCE OF INSTABILITY.
INSTABILITY IMPROVES MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BEST COLOCATION OF
SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST WI. UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DRIFT EAST.
TUESDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR
SEVERE STORMS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPEN WHILE AN ELONGATED FRONT DRAPES
ACROSS OUR AREA. INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 1,500 J/KG LOCALLY ALONG
WITH 45 KNOTS OF SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE INDICATORS THAT ANY STORMS
THAT FIRE OVER ILLINOIS CAN TRACK EAST INTO OUR AREA. BOUNDARY-
PARALLEL FLOW RAISES THE RISK OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.
WET WEATHER LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNTIL THE PARENT
TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST. A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US KEEPING TEMPERATURES VERY WARM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL STRATUS BUILDING WESTWARD FROM
NORTHWEST OHIO ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA. KFWA HAS BEEN REPORTING
HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AS THESE STRATUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVERHEAD
FOR THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM
ILLINOIS. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
EVENING. EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND
NORTH OF US 6, INCLUDING AT KSBN. MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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