010
FXUS63 KIWX 112324
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
724 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY (WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE)
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24 SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NW INDIANA AND FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN
DRY.
- WARMER AND HUMID BY MIDWEEK. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS
(20%) LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES (30-60%)
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK FORECAST ON SUNDAY FOR SOUTHEAST
LAKE MI BEACHES. BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS MAKING FOR
A BEAUTIFUL END TO THE WORK WEEK TODAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY,
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, AND SOME SUNSHINE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
SEEN ADVECTING NORTHWARD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND WAA WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR 40-60% CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS ON
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH POTENTIALLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT 500MB SHORTWAVE. THEN, AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATER SATURDAY EVENING. INCREASED WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONGSIDE LIFT FROM THE WARM FRONT WILL SPARK CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24 IN INDIANA AND
OHIO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK
BETWEEN 06- 09Z SATURDAY AND END AROUND 18-21Z). SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1000
J/KG BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. SHEAR AND LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE TOO WEAK FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. NORTHWEST
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY, AS
THE COLD FRONT LIKELY PASSES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
PRIOR TO PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY.
STAY WEATHER AWARE IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO HEAD TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY! BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY, WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES IN
BERRIEN AND LA PORTE COUNTIES. CAA AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD ONSHORE FLOW AND WAVES OF 2-3 FT,
MEANING THE SWIM RISK WILL BE MODERATE FOR BOTH LA PORTE AND BERRIEN
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED.
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY, WITH LOW
CHANCES (20%) FOR RAIN/STORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. WITH A POTENTIALLY CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW BUILDING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THIS ALLOWS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US ON TUESDAY
TOO, WITH RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF USHERING IN WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH THE PEAK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
LIKELY APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS (30-60%). THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLOW MOVING
OR POTENTIALLY EVEN STALL TO OUR NORTHWEST (STILL MIXED MODEL
GUIDANCE RESULTS ON IF IT ACTUALLY COMES THROUGH OUR AREA OR NOT),
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS. THERE ARE NO CLEAR
SIGNS OF FALL IN ANY OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AS OUR FORECAST AREA
LOOKS TO REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN HOT AND HUMID AIR TO OUR SOUTH
AND COOLER, DRIER AIR TO OUR NORTH FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGING TRANSITIONS
TO A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH BY TAF END TIME. THIS ALLOWS S WINDS TO
BECOME SW WINDS BY THE END OF PERIOD AND FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME POSSIBLE AT FWA AFTER 9Z, POTENTIALLY WITH A
FEW DRY HOURS BEFORE 18Z. OVERALL, IT APPEARS MOST HOURS LEAN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD BETWEEN 10 AND
15Z WHERE THUNDERSTORMS BRING SOME REDUCTION INTO MVFR SO WILL USE A
PROB30 GROUP TO INDICATE THAT POTENTIAL.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ROLLER
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