160
FXUS63 KIWX 091043
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
643 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-69, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ISAIAS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
- GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MORE PRONOUNCED DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED
LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM SE NEBRASKA TO SW MISSOURI. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY AIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
IOWA. WHILE THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS NE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL TRY TO WORK NE WELL AHEAD OF
IT, BUT RUN INTO INCREASINGLY DRY AIR WITH SOME SATURATION
STARTING IN THE MID LEVELS. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS, SUSPECT MORE
OF A SPRINKLE VS LIGHT RAIN RISK, BUT FOR NOW HAVE JUST LOWERED
POPS TO SLGT CHC CATEGORY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY SOME IMPACTS FROM WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF HURRICANE
ISAIAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND
MAYBE A FEW 80S IN FAR SW AREAS ON SATURDAY PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL
OF A SPOKE OF ENERGY AND INVERTED TROUGH THAT PUSHES NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE MAIN SFC AND UPPER LEVEL
REMNANTS WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO RIVER, REACHING WEST VIRGINIA
BY 6Z/12. AN AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST THIRD TO MAYBE HALF OF THE AREA. BIT HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN FAR SE SECTIONS (SE OF I-69) WHERE SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO A HALF INCH. WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP
SOMEWHAT AS WELL IN THIS WINDOW IN THE SAME AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO TAKE HOLD INTO MID WEEK, BUT A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DROP IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER BRIEF WARMUP MONDAY (MAYBE MORE LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 80). MID TO LATE WEEK WILL THEN FEATURE LIKELY PHASING
OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS, CARVING OUT A DEEPER
TROUGH WITH THE SFC REFLECTION REMAINING WELL NW OF THE AREA. A
STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING A MUCH MORE FALL LIKE AIR MASS
IN ITS WAKE JUST OUTSIDE THE CURRENT PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW 0 C.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS, WITH CALM/VARIABLE
WINDS STRENGTHENING OUT OF THE S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT KSBN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE-THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...MCD
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