976
FXUS63 KIWX 071000
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
600 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
QUIET WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A 130+ KT
UPPER LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT PV ANOMALY PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY. HOWEVER, WE REMAIN IN THE UNFAVORABLE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THIS JET STREAK. BETTER CVA ALSO PASSES TO THE NORTH AND
LAGS WELL BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. MODEST RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH HIGHS NEAR 80F (PARTICULARLY IN OUR
S/SW) BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW VERY DRY/STABLE AND CAPPED PROFILES. NO PRECIP EXPECTED WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LIKELY JUST SOME HIGH-BASED CLOUDS AT TIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THEN SETTLES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF LARGE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. HIGHS ON THU DROP BACK TO AROUND 70F WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 40F. SURFACE HIGH PASSES OVER OUR AREA THU NIGHT
AND RETURN FLOW STARTS AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY. SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC
00Z MODELS GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/
THETA-E SURGE BUT NBM IS HOLDING DRY. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE
HAVE TO ADD A LOW CHANCE POP OR SPRINKLE MENTION FRI NIGHT BUT WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWING A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD THAT
NOW CLIPS MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY.
NBM POP'S NOW OVER 60% FOR MUCH OF OUR SE CWA. STILL NOT EXPECTING
ANY APPRECIABLE IMPACTS FROM THIS EVENT THOUGH. EVEN A WIDESPREAD 1-
1.5" SHOULD BE TOLERABLE GIVEN RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND THAT IS
DEFINITELY ON THE HIGH-END OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. QPF AMOUNTS COULD
EASILY BE MUCH LOWER. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN
NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO BE IMPACTFUL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS, WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHIFTING WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 21KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AT KFWA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...MCD
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