920
FXUS63 KIWX 200833
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
333 AM EST THU FEB 20 2020
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU FEB 20 2020
A COLD COUPLE OF DAYS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S, FOLLOWED BY
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL INTO THE TEENS. BY SUNDAY, HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 50 DEGREES BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU FEB 20 2020
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL DOES NOT
LOOK NOT SO GOOD. DRY LOOKS TO BE CAPPING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
MOST PART. WHILE IT IS EARLY IN THE MORNING, EVEN CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO
GET GOING AT THIS TIME. FURTHERMORE, A STOUT AREA OF DRY AIR CAN BE
SEEN PLOWING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. FARTHER NORTH
TOWARD GRAND RAPIDS, THERE ARE SOME RADAR RETURNS, WITH TEMP/DEW
POINT OF 18/6 AND 19/9. NO SNOW REPORTED. NORTH OF TRAVERSE CITY IS
WHERE THE MOST PERSISTENT LES HAS BEEN SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH KGOV REPORTING 11/8 AND 7-MILE SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOCALLY
STILL SUGGEST SOME OMEGA AND A TOUCH OF SATURATION IN THE DGZ
(DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE). ALL OF THAT BEING SAID, I HAVE
TAPERED THIS DOWN TO FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
OUTSIDE OF THE LES, LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS LOOKS TO BE IN PLAY FOR A
PORTION OF TODAY BEFORE WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. SKIES LOOK TO BE
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO
THE TEENS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM EST THU FEB 20 2020
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY, ENDING UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS LOCATION WILL PERMIT MILD AIR TO RETURN TO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH IS ONSHORE OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS IS FORCED NORTHEASTWARD BY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, EVENTUALLY PLACING THIS TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS BY
SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY BEFORE RAIN ARRIVES TO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. AT THIS JUNCTURE, RAIN IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER LAKE
EERIE, ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO WRAP AROUND INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS TOWARD
THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE. PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT THIS OUT IN THE
COMING FOUR DAYS.
AS THIS STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS OF THE NORTHEAST US, A DEEP TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL US PROVIDING US WITH A DOSE OF COLD
AIR AND POSSIBLE SNOW IN THE FORM OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND PERHAPS
LAKE EFFECT. DON'T BE TOO ALARMED THOUGH BY THE COLD AIR, AS 850 MB
TEMPS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO TONIGHT'S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST THU FEB 20 2020
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM A WEATHER
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. EVENTUALLY THE COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH
SHOULD PROMOTE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
AROUND 3K FEET EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT KSBN. BEST CHANCE OF SOME
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 09Z
AT KSBN WITH BEST CHANCES CENTERED AROUND 12Z AS THE UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IMPINGES ON THE AREA. THIS LAKE EFFECT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH HOWEVER AS MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
QUICKLY BUILDS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
GRADUAL VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING MAY PROVIDE BRIEF MVFR POTENTIAL AT KFWA IN THE 13Z-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND POSSIBLY CLEAR LATE
THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
SYNOPSIS...BROWN
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...COBB
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