865
FXUS63 KIWX 122034
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
434 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND THE FIRST
PART OF SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EDGES INTO AREAS WEST OF
US-69 FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN RISK IS DAMAGING WIND, BUT
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO WANE
FARTHER EAST OF I-69.
- THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING
TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA, SURFACE DEW POINTS
ABOUT 20 DEGREES LESS WITH VALUES IN THE MID-50S TODAY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ALSO, A BIT COOLER
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S TODAY. THIS COMFORTABLE
WEATHER WILL SPILL OVER INTO TOMORROW ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE IN 80S WITH JUST A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES, DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AS IT PUSHES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, SPC DOES HAVE OUR AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY WEST OF THE I-69
CORRIDOR. THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
LATE IN THE EVENING ONCE AGAIN BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE EXACT TIMING WHICH LOOKS TO BE FROM 9 PM TO 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTED ENVIRONMENT HAS SB CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG AND
SR HELICITY AROUND 100 M2/S2 BUT THE LIMITING FACTOR HERE WILL
BE THE AVAILABLE SHEAR WITH VALUES AROUND 20-25 KTS. PWATS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THIS EVENT.
TROUGHING THEN SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S AND ALSO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF MVFR CIGS AROUND
3 KFT AFTER 00Z THROUGH 12Z SAT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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