261
FXUS63 KIWX 042236
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
636 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-
MID 80S.
- CHANCES (40-80 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE.
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY(20-40
PERCENT).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO ALSO REMAIN
DRY HOWEVER, WE WILL SEE THE ADVERTISED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. SOME
UNCERTAINTY NOW EXISTS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC
CONDITIONS INDICATING THAT THE MAIN ENERGY/COLD POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA MAY PUSH FURTHER
NORTH (STAYING WITHIN CANADA'S BORDERS). THIS WOULD MAKE THE
COLD POOL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEAKER AND WOULD ALSO ORPHAN THE
FRONT AND WOULD BECOME WASHED OUT AND MAKE FOR MUCH SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY THOUGH STILL LOOKS TO
ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR LIFTING AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG ITS LATERAL. WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE
PRESENT (PWATS STILL AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES) AND THE SLOW SPEED
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR FAVORABLE TRAINING OF CELLS TO
POTENTIALLY CREATE HEAVIER RAINFALL WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY SITS
OVER. WPC HAS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF THE MARGINAL FLOOD RISK WOULD BE ON THURSDAY WHEN THE FRONT
IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO EXPECTED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME PER SPC WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE
LACK OF ENERGY/COLD POOL AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE OTHER BIG CHANGE TO THE LONGER TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A
LONGER DURATION OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD KEEP US MORE ON THE
COOLER AND DRIER SIDE PROVIDING CONTINUED SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON POSSIBLE. BUT
STILL NEED TO WATCH INTO NEXT WEEK AS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MAY PUSH NORTHWARD AND THAT WOULD MAKE FOR HOTTER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA. AT THIS TIME THOUGH THE
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE DOES KEEP US NORTH OF THE MORE
HUMID/HOTTER AIRMASS. SO A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY SEEMS TO HAVE
MADE IT'S WAY INTO THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE FOR THE 00Z TAFS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO KEEP THINGS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO 5-10
KTS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS TO NW INDIANA
AND SW LOWER MICHIGAN (INCLUDING AT KSBN) AFTER 00Z THURSDAY,
SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER
CONFIDENCE IS GAINED ON THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
PRECIPITATION.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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