827
FXUS63 KIWX 230510
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
110 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY MILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES.
- DRY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS DECENT
SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG DUE TO THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 DEG/KM AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS WILL KEEP THE STORMS
RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED AND ON THE WEAK SIDE, HOWEVER AS SEEN
ALREADY TODAY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN A FAIRLY ORGANIZED AND SLOW
MOVING STORM HAD DEVELOPED IN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY. SO STORMS WILL MAINLY REMAIN THE GARDEN VARIETY BUT A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME STRONGER. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, FORECASTED DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES AROUND
500-800 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE. SOME SMALL HAIL WOULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 0.75 INCH. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 9-10 PM EDT.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN QUIET WEATHER WISE THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY WITH AGAIN A CONTINUATION OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AN APPROACHING COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 70S. INTO THE
WEEKEND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY BUT
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE SPRING DAY
WITH RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST.
BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE AREA INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WPC RAINFALL
FORECAST STILL HAS AROUND 0.75-1.00 INCH ON MONDAY WHICH MAY
HAMPER RIVER LEVELS FROM DROPPING AS FAST AND EVEN MAY BRING
SOME SLIGHT INCREASES. OF COURSE, THIS IS DEPENDING ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE RAIN FALLS THAT WILL DETERMINE WHICH RIVERS ARE
AFFECTED AND BY HOW MUCH. DEFINITELY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON MONDAY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 60S AND RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING
GIVEN RECENT RAIN AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. BEST
CHANCES FOR IFR ARE AT KSBN BUT GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON HOW
WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG WILL BECOME THIS MORNING SO WILL HOLD WITH
JUST A TEMPO 2SM FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN/AVIATION IMPACTS NOT UNTIL LATE
FRI MORNING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...AGD
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