629
FXUS63 KIWX 280722
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
322 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADILY INCREASING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HIGHEST CHANCES, INCLUDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING (60-80%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER PLAINS, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND THE
CENTRAL CONUS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR
PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 20S THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD THIS
WEEK WITH INCREASINGLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAINFALL. PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY WARM. STRONG WAA PEAKS ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US 24 MAY
REACH 80 DEGREES. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE GRADUAL, BUT BY TUESDAY,
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S ACROSS
THE AREA. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES; WITH A BREEZY AND WARM TUESDAY
AHEAD, WE ARE MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THAT COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH THE SYSTEM'S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DESTABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. MODELS ARE ALSO COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL RAMP UP TUESDAY EVENING. SPC HAD MENTIONED THE LAKE
MICHIGAN VICINITY IN THEIR DAY 4-8 DISCUSSION YESTERDAY AS BEING A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...LOOKING AT MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW, I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF OUR AREA IS INCLUDED IN A
DAY 4 OUTLOOK LATER THIS MORNING AS MODELS COME TO A DECENT
CONSENSUS. WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD
AND A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH, THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT
IS DECENTLY FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DURING A DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE TIMEFRAME, WHAT STORM MODE MAY BE, AND HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. LIKE WITH THE PAST FEW
MARCH SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS WE HAVE HAD, THIS MAY BE ANOTHER
HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE SETUP.
TEMPERATURES CRASH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS LIKELY BEING REACHED FOR THE DAY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE IN THE 40S DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MILD AIR THEN GRADUALLY RETURNS AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS
WITH THE CEILINGS AROUND 7000FT SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LIGHT W-NW WINDS GRADUALLY DROP TO THE S-SW BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MCD
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