112
FXUS63 KIWX 280618
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
218 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A HIGH SWIM RISK AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
STAY DRY WHEN WAVES ARE HIGH.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WEAK FRONT WAS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF IT AND MID
TO UPPER 50 IN ITS WAKE. THE FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT CAME CLOSE
TO NE HILLSDALE COUNTY HAVE DISSIPATED. THE OVERALL SFC FLOW
WILL BECOME NE AND PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ALLOWING
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN.
CONCERNS FOR HIGH SWIM RISK AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS, WHICH
WERE ALREADY ON THE MARGINAL SIDE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY, APPEAR
TO BE EVEN MORE QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK FLOW THAT
MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WHILE THE
ARGUMENT CAN BE MADE TO DROP BOTH HEADLINES (WHICH GRR HAS
RECENTLY DONE TO OUR NORTH), WILL KEEP THINGS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND LET THE DAY SHIFT ASSESS CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTSIDE OF THE BEACH/MARINE ISSUES, NO REAL WEATHER CONCERNS AS
TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION AND A NW TO SE OMEGA BLOCK
TAKES HOLD INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
ATTEMPT TO LOWER SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
ANOTHER FRONT MAY ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH, BUT LITTLE OVERALL
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. MED RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE OMEGA BLOCK
WILL WEAKEN, BUT MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN LAKES WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD EVEN AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SEMI ZONAL BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR THE PERIOD AND BEYOND WITH LIGHT
WINDS BECOMING NE WITH TIME. SPEEDS MAY PICK UP SOME DURING
THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN EITHER SIDE OF 10 KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ046.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER
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