219
FXUS63 KIWX 141003
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
603 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AN IMPRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, 500 MB CENTER CURRENTLY ~600
DAM OVER SOUTHERN MN AND CENTRAL WI, WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
ELONGATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENT HEAT DOME WILL FOLD OVER AS
A RESULT WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES UP NEAR 100F EACH
DAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDICES (100F
PLUS) STILL LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US 24 CORRIDOR BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO CHANGES MADE TO TODAY'S HEAT ADVISORY.
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
WELL, BUT WILL TAKE THIS DAY BY DAY FOR NOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER MAY SNEAK JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY THURSDAY
TO ALLOW A SUBTLE BACKDOOR FRONT TO NEAR THE US 30 CORRIDOR BY PEAK
HEATING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP (10-20%) NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
GIVEN THE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION. WHERE THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP AND ANY POTENTIAL CLOUD
DEBRIS WILL DICTATE HOW HOT/HUMID WE GET ON THURSDAY, THOUGH CURRENT
NBM PROJECTIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO ANOTHER DAY OF UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100F PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES.
00Z GUIDANCE OVERALL IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
AND A WEAK VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO BETTER COVERAGE/CHANCES
(40-60%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LEFTOVER FRONTAL ZONE. REMAINING HOT AND HUMID OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF
ANY CONVECTION.
A LOW PREDICTABILITY POP/TEMP FORECAST SETS UP THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
BECOME PROBLEMATIC IN THE VICINITY OF A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE.
THIS FEATURE WILL OSCILLATE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF
PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
CONTINUE TO HINT A A MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS
DEVELOPING FLOW REGIME SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A LARGER
SCALE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER, AND LIGHT
WINDS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
INZ005-012>015-022-023-104-116-204-216.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM EDT /7
PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-
022>024-103-104-116-203-204-216.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR INZ103-203.
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016.
MI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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