884
FXUS63 KIWX 202345
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
745 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD THIS WEEKEND, THEN TURNING COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A DRY PATTERN OVERALL WITH CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ON SUNDAY, AND THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL DROP A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE THIS A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH COOLER AIR FUNNELING IN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL RETREAT AND/OR WASH OUT COMPLETELY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SUPPORTING A NICE TEMP RECOVERY
BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE SLIGHTLY BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT FOR A
POTENTIAL WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. THIS BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL SLOPE DURING THIS TIME FROM
NW TO SE, THOUGH CHANCES WERE GENERALLY HELD IN THE 20-40% RANGE
AS SPREAD REMAINS ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE RETURN AND
DEVELOPING SFC WAVE COME TOGETHER (BETTER CHANCES EAST OF THE
AREA). MID AFTERNOON TIMING OF THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY MAKING A RUN AT 80F WITH AMPLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD BRING AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH ANY
CONVECTION SOUTH OF US 24 SAT PM, THOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WHEN THE CAP BREAKS
(BEST CHANCES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING).
THE POST-FRONTAL SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
APPEARS BRIEF WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY ON THE RISE THROUGH THE
THURSDAY. THE NEXT IN THESE SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS THEN BRING
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE FOLD LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT LIGHTENING UP LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, THEN TOWARDS THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BR IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT AM FOR A
PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ANDERSEN/MCD
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