243
FXUS63 KIWX 141030
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
630 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORNING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GIVE WAY TO DRIER AND
COOLER AIR FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND MONDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR
TUESDAY AND A SLIGHT RISK EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY.
- TRENDS ARE FOR A COOLER AND DRIER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A HIGH SWIM RISK FOR SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. LIFE THREATENING WAVES AND
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AND,
WHILE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO BUILD THIS MORNING, THINK THE COLD
FRONT MOVES FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP SEVERE WEATHER OFF TO OUR EAST.
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME GENERAL THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, THIS COLD FRONT SPELLS THE END OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR. DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SHRINK BACK INTO THE 50S AND UPPER 40S BY
THE END OF THE DAY AND HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
TODAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT BREEZES TO 25 TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LINGERING GRADIENT.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA AND SERVES AS THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEK. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE AREA AROUND 12Z MONDAY, BUT MODELS SHOW
MINIMAL RESPONSE IN THE MOISTURE FIELD AT THIS POINT AND SO EXPECT
MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS AROUND.
ON THE HEELS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND PROVIDES A DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THEN, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA
WITH MINIMAL GULF CONNECTION AND MINIMAL THETA-E PLUME RESPONSE FOR
TUESDAY. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES BY TO
THE SOUTH WITH VORT MAXES MOVING THROUGH IN THE FLOW AND SOME
INSTABILITY. SHEAR ATTEMPTS TO ENTER AREAS WEST OF IN-15 AROUND 00Z
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF, BUT IT MAY BE TOO LITTLE TO LATE. AT
THE VERY LEAST, THINK SOME GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL COULD
BE POSSIBLE.
STILL ANOTHER SHORTWAVE (STRONGER THIS TIME) TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REFLECTION, WHICH MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT IS
STILL BEING MODELED AS SLOW TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY AND SO IT WOULD APPEAR A SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE WOULD BE
CONTINGENT ON ITS EVENTUAL PLACEMENT. WE COULD BE IN STORE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION OR JUST RAIN IF IT DOESN'T ADVANCE NORTHWARD
QUICK ENOUGH. IF IT DOES ADVANCE NORTHWARD QUICK ENOUGH, IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT ALL HAZARDS COULD BE ON THE TABLE. WITH PWATS UP AROUND
2" AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
OVERHEAD, IT WOULD APPEAR WE'D BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH. THE NBM HAS A 20 TO 40% CHANCE TO SEE 2"
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA IN 48 HOURS ENDING THURSDAY
MORNING, WHICH IS A COMBINATION OF BOTH THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WAVES. A BLEND OF JUST THE LONG RANGE (CMC/GFS/ECMWF) IS LOWER, BUT
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE GFS IS MUCH LOWER WITH ITS OUTPUT WHEN
COMPARED TO THE CMC AND ECMWF.
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH STILL RETAINS SOME VORTICITY IN IT BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THERE'S ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, BOTH DAYS APPEAR TO HAVE A LACK OF
SHEAR LIMITING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
USHERING DRIER CONDITIONS INTO SBN EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, FWA
TAKES A LITTLE LONGER TO DO SO AND WILL EVEN GET INTO SOME RAIN AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE FRONT DEPARTS. IN ADDITION TO
SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION THIS
MORNING, FWA WILL ALSO HAVE ADVERSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.
WINDS VEER NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER STARTING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROLLER
AVIATION...ROLLER
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