770
FXUS63 KIWX 221720
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
120 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF US-24. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME SMALL
HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- HIGHS DROP INTO THE 40S ON MONDAY BUT SLOWLY RECOVER BACK TO
THE 70S BY THURSDAY.
- AFTER TODAY, THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS NOT UNTIL THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED GENERALLY ALONG THE US-24
CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING. STRONG INVERSION AROUND 800-750MB IS EFFECTIVELY CAPPING
ANY CONVECTION WITH EVEN CU BEING HIGHLY LIMITED. A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS/CAA WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND SATURATE THIS INVERSION
WITH SOME RESIDUAL MUCAPE GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT/FGEN WITHIN AND JUST BELOW THIS UNSTABLE
LAYER WILL SUPPORTING EXPANDING SHOWERS AFTER 21Z AND PERHAPS A FEW
STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF US-24 AROUND 00Z. HOWEVER, SFC-850MB CAA
WILL ALREADY BE WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS EVEN OUR FAR SE BY THIS POINT
AND A VERY STABLE PROFILE BELOW 850MB WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ANY
POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS OR TORNADOES. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
SMALL HAIL BUT MUCAPE VALUES ARE 500-1000 J/KG AT BEST SO EVEN THAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED. BETTER CHANCES EXIST JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWA. ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA WILL QUICKLY EXIT AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BY 03-04Z. LOWS TONIGHT DROP TO AROUND 30F IN
STRONG CAA WITH HIGHS TOMORROW HOLDING IN THE 40S (EVEN SOME
UPPER 30S NEAR THE LAKE).
TEMPS SLOWLY RECOVER TUE-THU AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION AND RETURN FLOW GRADUALLY RAMPS UP ON THE BACKSIDE. A
VERY SIMILAR SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED ON THU WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
STRONG WAA PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP BACK
TO MARCH REALITY FOR FRIDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AT SOME
POINT WITH THE BEST CHANCES PROBABLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THU
EVENING. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT REGARDING EXACT PRECIP
TIMING AND AMOUNTS THOUGH. THE SEVERE THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS
LIMITED DUE TO POOR INSTABILITY PROFILES BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS
DETAILS ARE NARROWED DOWN IN THE COMING DAYS. RETURN TO DRY/QUIET
WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST THROUGH KFWA BY ISSUANCE WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID LEVEL
PORTION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AT KSBN 21-01Z, AND 23-02Z AT KFWA.
THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER AT KFWA DURING
THIS TIME. CIGS LIKELY LOWER INTO MVFR OTHERWISE TONIGHT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING A BIT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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