816
FXUS63 KIWX 131030
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
630 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND SNOW ON
MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED, MAINLY IN NORTHWEST IN
AND SOUTHWEST MI.
- TEMPERATURES MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SUNDAY WILL CRASH INTO THE 20S
BY MONDAY. TUESDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS NEAR 0.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
A POWERHOUSE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY BRINGING A
SHARP INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING THAT PERSISTS THROUGH THE
DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS BY SUNRISE (45-50MPH) BECOME WESTERLY
PRIOR TO NOON AND REACH THEIR PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS
(50-60 MPH). WIND GUSTS DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH COULD LINGER IN NORTHWEST OHIO JUST BEYOND OUR
8PM EDT EXPIRATION TIME OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING; TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.
THE 992MB LOW, CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MN, IS ALREADY PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD 45-55 KNOT (52-63 MPH) WIND GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT(S). THIS IS WELL CORRELATED TO A 925-MB JET OF
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THIS JET
MIGHT LOSE A FEW KNOTS OF ITS PUNCH THROUGH TIME AS THE PARENT
TROUGH FLATTENS THROUGH TIME, BUT NONETHELESS, A VERY IMPRESSIVE
SETUP FOR WIND TODAY WITH THE ~990MB LOW CONTRASTING WITH A
1024MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST US, AND MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
TAPPING INTO THE 60+ KNOT JET AT 850MB (4K FT AGL).
ALONG WITH THE WIND, A BRIEF PERIOD RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US 6 CORRIDOR. A STOUT
DRY LAYER IS SO FAR PREVENTING HYDROMETEORS FROM REACHING THE GROUND
AS OF THIS EARLY-MORNING WRITING. BUT, RACING ACROSS IOWA IS A
STRONG BUT NARROW AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS. DESPITE THE 12-DEGREE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS THERE, RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND. THE
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE BRIEF LOCALLY AND LITTLE TO NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS AFTERNOON, THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW BUT DURATION WILL BE BRIEF
AS WELL, IN PART DUE TO THE OVERWHELMING WIND PROFILE TODAY.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST TAKES SHAPE DURING THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL US. AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS PLACES US IN THE WARM SECTOR
STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WHERE THIS WARM FRONT SETS UP WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR RAIN (EVEN SOME EARLY-AM SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN
MI). AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES NORTH DURING THE DAY, A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DURING THE DRY PERIOD,ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE (40-70% CHANCE OF 40MPH WIND GUSTS).
SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY PROFILES COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AS WELL. THEN, BY MONDAY MORNING, RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW LOOKS TO RESULT IN 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AREA-WIDE BEFORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADDS TO THE TOTAL FOR WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LOCATIONS. ONCE AGAIN, THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD WILL FEATURE
A 30 TO 40 DEGREE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
TUMBLING INTO THE 30S.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
OUR AREA ON THE FRINGE OF A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THIS
GRADIENT WOULD BE THE CHANNEL FOR PASSING SHORTWAVES, INCLUDING
A CLIPPER SYSTEM (SNOW) WEDNESDAY, ATTEMPTING TO SUPPRESS THE
BUILDING FOUR CORNERS RIDGE. OVERALL, AM OPTIMISTIC FOR A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEYOND MIDWEEK BUT THE THERMAL GRADIENT
AND ACTIVE JET STREAM RESULTS IN MURKY DETAILS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WIND FORECAST TODAY WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 45-50KTS EXPECTED AS DIURNAL MIXING RAMPS UP. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ROUGHLY 15-18Z WITH A WIND
DIRECTION VERY NEAR 260 DEGREES. LIGHT RAIN IS EXITING THE AREA
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SLOWLY
VEER AND RELAX THIS EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ078>081-
177-277.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...AGD
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