713
FXUS63 KIWX 140641
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
241 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH.
- A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT, TRANSITIONING TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THAT LINGERS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PAIRED
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, TREACHEROUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND AROUND THE GREATER SOUTH BEND AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A COMPARATIVELY QUIET DAY AS WE'RE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S ABSOLUTELY REMARKABLE WIND STORM
IS NOW WRAPPING UP OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IS BRINGING A NARROW AREA OF VIRGA THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP US DRY. THE
MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THIS PACKAGE IS SUNDAY'S WIND AND SEVERE
WEATHER, FOLLOWED BY MONDAY'S SNOW AND WIND.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
RACES INLAND AND DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR RAMPS UP CONSIDERABLY
WITH A 50-60 KNOT 850MB JET WHILE THE LOW DEEPENS TO ~990MB.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A RESULT, BUT THIS TIME WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH (RATHER THAN 70+ MPH WIND
GUSTS OBSERVED FRIDAY).
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH ILLINOIS, ARRIVING TO NORTHWEST INDIANA NEAR SUNSET
SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS OUR PRIMARY POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
MUCAPE OF BARELY 250 J/KG, IN CONTRAST TO SCREAMING 40-60 KNOT
BULK SHEAR. INCOMING HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST GUIDANCE MAY
BOLSTER CONFIDENCE LATER TODAY, BUT LOW-TOPPED GUSTY SHOWERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT APPEAR THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. DESPITE
IMPRESSIVE SRH VALUES, THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK IS MURKY IN PART
TO POOR 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION (PARALLEL) TO THE
ANTICIPATED LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
LASTLY, THE SNOW. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I
DID INCREASE QPF/SNOW TOTALS WHICH THE IN-HOUSE BLEND TENDS TO
HANDLE POORLY, RESULTING IN ABOUT 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE FAVORED
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BELTS. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE
APPEARS TO BE OK, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
DAY. REGARDLESS OF EXACT SNOW TOTALS, BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST
SUCH THAT 35 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
RESULT IN TERRIBLE VISIBLILTY AT TIMES. SNOW PERSISTS THROUGH
MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING.
CRASHING TEMPERATURES EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY
MARKING A BRUTAL RETURN TO WINTER. TUESDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL
BE NEAR ZERO AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE CARDS MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF WARM UP LATE-WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW ENERGETIC NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES EVOLVES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WINDS CONTINUE TO RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION.
SUBSIDENCE/HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ENSURE
VFR/TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER THIS PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE TODAY AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A STRAY SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE AT KSBN LATER TODAY BUT NO
IMPACT ANTICIPATED AND CHANCES ARE VERY LOW ANYWAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...AGD
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