572
FXUS63 KIWX 261024
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
624 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST,
TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN STATE LINE.
- HOT AND HUMID NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND HEAT
INDICIES NEAR 100 AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A WARM FRONT CREEPS NORTH TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30. NORTHWARD PROGRESS
BEYOND THAT IS LIMITED BY PRECEDING 1019MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER PENINSULA. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE DECREASED NOTABLY WITH THE
SOUTHERN TRACK SHIFT AN A LACK OF LOCAL UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. MOST
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US 30 WILL SEE ABOUT 0.25" TO 0.50", WITH AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW FOLKS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 TO SEE 1". RAIN
ARRIVES LATE THIS MORNING AND TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
SUNSET.
BEYOND TODAY'S RAIN, THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE
INCOMING HEAT. TODAY'S WARM FRONT DRIFTS EAST, SANDWICHED
BETWEEN EASTERN GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE AND A SUBTROPICAL
SOUTHEAST US RIDGE. TO THE WEST, A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN BUCKLES THE JETSTREAM SIGNIFICANTLY RESULTING IN A 594DM
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE BECOMES
CENTERED OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS REPRESENTING
OUR HOTTEST DAYS OF THIS "HEAT WAVE". AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY KEEPS THIS RIDGE AROUND THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
WEEKEND. DAILY HIGHS IN THE 90S ALONG WITH HEAT INDICIES IN THE
TRIPLE-DIGITS ARE NEARLY A GIVEN. AMID THE HOT AND HUMID
ENVIRONMENT, UNSTABLE CONDITIONS INVITE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED ON A
DAILY BASIS. WHEN THE RIDGE DOES BREAK DOWN, WE'LL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY RIDGE-RUNNING MCS'.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY. EXISTING
TAFS REMAIN ON TRACK THIS MORNING. KSBN STILL LOOKS TO DODGE A
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TODAY, THROUGH THE PROB30 REMAINS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR AT KSBN.
AT KFWA, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH
DECREASING CEILINGS. WIND NEAR 10 KNOTS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
BR OR FG CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. LESS CONFIDENCE ON ANY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AT KSBN WHERE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS
WEAKER.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...BROWN
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