889
FXUS63 KIWX 191021
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
621 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS
OF POOR AIR QUALITY AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.
- MODERATE SWIM RISK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG LAKE MI
BEACHES IN BERRIEN COUNTY, MI AND LA PORTE COUNTY, IN THIS
MORNING. DANGEROUS WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS
LOOK TO IMPROVE FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
PRETTY QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH LAST EVENING. HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 80
TODAY AND WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SMOKE FROM THE
WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND CANADA WILL TRANSIT ALOFT
BUT WITHOUT THE RIDGING TO CAP THINGS OFF SOME MIXING OUT SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE DAYS FOR NEAR SURFACE BUT IN THE EVENINGS AND
OVERNIGHTS COULD SEE SOME OF THE SMOKE MAKE IT'S WAY BACK TO
THE SURFACE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE MONDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS PARTS OF OUR AREA UNDER MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
FOR BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE EXACT EVOLUTION AS THE TIMING SEEMS LESS THAN IDEAL WITH ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY IN WI/IL
NOT GETTING INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 10 PM EDT ON MONDAY, THIS
SHOULD MITIGATE THE NEAR SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH THE DOWNWARD
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
AND LOOKS TO DO SO FROM ABOUT 10 AM UNTIL 4 PM EDT. SO THE
BETTER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO EXIST FOR AREAS IN OUR FARTHEST
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. FORECASTED BULK SHEAR VALUES AT
THIS TIME ALSO LOOKS LESS THAN IDEAL WITH VALUES LESS THAN 25
KTS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO WILL HAVE A BIG
IMPACT ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION WITH A SLOWER TRANSITION MAY MAKE
FOR BETTER TIMING AND POTENTIAL OF STRONGER STORMS. SO WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW THE
SPC HAS PARTS OF OUR ARES UNDER MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FOR BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.
WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH TUESDAY COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER WILL USHER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SO A LIKELY
WELCOMED RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
MVFR VSBY FOR KSBN THROUGH 13Z TODAY IN SMOKE/HAZE. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT VARIABLE TO NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 5KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH SITES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...NONE.
MI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ078>081-
177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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