849
FXUS63 KIWX 162326
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
626 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. MILD AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE.
- RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- COOLER BY THE END OF THE WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 30S) WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL BECOME
STALLED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. WITH CONTINUED SNOWPACK
MELTING AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY. I DON'T EXPECT FOG TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER
THIS MORNING. A LOT OF THE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE (HRRR, NAM, RAP,
ETC) IS TRENDING COLDER TOMORROW WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MODELED ON
SEVERAL MODELS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS OUR AREA, MOST NOTABLY ON THE
RAP WHERE 925MB TEMPS ARE AROUND 5C. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
MAYBE WE ONLY GET INTO THE 40S TOMORROW WITH THE SURGE OF WAA
NOT HAPPENING UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY; THIS MAY BE
TOO COLD OF A SOLUTION THOUGH. I DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO FAR
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS BUT I HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN FOR TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR LOWER MICHIGAN (AS
OPPOSED TO LOW 50S WHICH IS WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST). WITH
STRATUS AROUND TOMORROW AND DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THE FRONT
STALLS, I THINK THAT IT ISN'T UNREASONABLE IF THE ENTIRE AREA
STRUGGLES TO GET INTO THE 50S TOMORROW. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ADJUST AS NEEDED BASED ON FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO THE AREA THIS WEEK WITH SEVERAL
OPPORTUNTIES FOR RAIN. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW
FOR SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEK.
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AS RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH WILL HELP A STALLED STATIONARY/WARM
FRONT LIFT NORTH AND CLEAR OUT OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THIS AIRMASS
WITH PWATS UP TO 1" AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.
RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND OVERSPREADS THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL CURVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WARM
INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME WEAK,
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WE DRY OUT DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WITH OUR FORECAST AREA FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR, NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS, ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 SHOULD BE WELL INTO
THE MID TO MAYBE EVEN UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON!
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN (AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS?)
ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE MIDWEST, WITH CONVECTION FOLLOWING ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT STILL EXPECTING 30-50% RAIN CHANCES BY THE
EVENING HOURS. AIDED BY A 500MB SHORTWAVE, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE RAIN AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW STORMS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT MODEST
WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS, ~500 J/KG OF MUCAPE, AND GOOD MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE FRONT OF ~8C/KM. SPC HAS A DAY 4 15%
SEVERE RISK FOR THURSDAY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA; WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTY STORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DESPITE THE WARM WEEK, DON'T LET FALSE SPRING FOOL YOU! IT'S STILL
FEBRUARY, MEANING WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL WEEKS OF WINTER TO GO. WE
RETURN BACK TO REALITY BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S, LOWS IN
THE TEENS, AND LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
FOG IS THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT GIVEN WAA OVER COLD GROUND AND
RECENT SNOWMELT. SIGNAL IS MUCH LESS CLEAR TONIGHT THOUGH DUE TO
A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING SURFACE TEMPS WARMER. NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN LAST
NIGHT AND THERE REMAINS SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HI-RES GUIDANCE
IS MUCH LESS SUPPORTIVE THAN LAST NIGHT, MOST NOTABLY THE HRRR.
WILL THEREFORE TEMPER VIS FORECAST AND HOLD WITH JUST TEMPO 1SM
AS THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BR AT TIMES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND MOST OF
THE DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT (JUST AFTER 00Z).
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...AGD
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