063
FZUS81 KCLE 061747
ICEGL
GREAT LAKES FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1239 PM EST WED MAR 6 2024
...MAXIMUM ICE COVERAGE FOR THE SEASON WELL BELOW AVERAGE AT 17.68
PERCENT...
THE EL NINO OF 2023-2024 LIVED UP TO ITS BILLING AND THEN SOME FOR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WAS CHARACTERISTIC OF MUCH LESS ICE
COVERAGE THAN NORMAL ON THE WHOLE ACROSS ALL FIVE OF THE LAKES. THIS
WAS THE STRONGEST EL NINO SINCE 2015-2016, AND THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER HAD INDICATED STRONG SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, INCREASING IN CONFIDENCE FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE US -
CANADA BORDER GOING INTO THE FALL OF 2023. THE MOST COMPELLING DATA,
OTHER THAN THE FIGURES ON THE ICE COVERAGE ITSELF, WAS PERHAPS THE
CUMULATIVE FREEZING DEGREE DAYS. AS OF MARCH 5, 2024, FREEZING
DEGREE DAYS WERE ONLY A FRACTION OF THEIR NORMAL VALUES WHICH WAS
THE STORY ALL WINTER, WITH ALL LOCATIONS WELL BELOW HALF AND MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN SITES CURRENT BALANCE AT ZERO. OUTSIDE OF ONE SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF COLD FOR AROUND 2 WEEKS IN THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY, COLD
AIRMASSES THAT FAVORED ICE GROWTH WERE CONSISTENTLY BEING REPLACED
BY AIRMASSES THAT ROUTINELY OSCILLATED BETWEEN BELOW FREEZING AT
NIGHT AND ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. ICE GROWTH WAS JUST NOT
ABLE TO GET ANY TRACTION, OTHER THAN THE MOST FAVORED SPOTS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. BUT EVEN THOSE FAVORED LOCATIONS, SUCH AS THE ST
MARYS RIVER, STRAITS OF MACKINAC, GREEN BAY, AND SAGINAW BAY SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT SIGNS OF ICE DECAY THROUGH FEBRUARY AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF MARCH.
FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS
COMPARED TO NORMAL CALCULATED ON TUE MAR 5:
LOCATION DATE NORMAL CURRENT
----------------------------------------
DULUTH, MN MAR 4 1716 715
MARQUETTE, MI MAR 4 1492 630
SAU_S_MAR, MI MAR 4 1204 410
GREENBAY, WI MAR 4 989 145
MILWAUKEE, WI MAR 4 469 0
CHICAGO, IL MAR 4 350 0
MUSKEGON, MI MAR 4 321 0
ALPENA, MI MAR 4 893 185
DETROIT, MI MAR 4 349 0
TOLEDO, OH MAR 4 203 0
CLEVELAND, OH MAR 4 101 0
BUFFALO, NY MAR 4 427 0
ICE COVERAGE PEAKED AT 17.68 PERCENT ON JANUARY 22, 2024,
APPROXIMATELY ONE MONTH EARLIER THAN THE ANNUAL NORMAL FOR PEAK ICE.
THIS ICE COVERAGE MAXIMUM IN JANUARY HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWO OTHER
TIMES, IN JANUARY OF 2012 AND JANUARY OF 1999. THIS PEAK IS FAR
LOWER THAN THE AVERAGE ANNUAL MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF 53 PERCENT.
CURRENT ICE CONCENTRATIONS SIT AT LESS THAN 3 PERCENT, WITH ICE
DRIFTING AROUND PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STRAITS OF
MACKINAC AND THE DETERIORATION PROCESS CONTINUING DESPITE SOME
OVERNIGHTS STILL BELOW FREEZING. SUN ANGLES INCREASING WITH THE
CHANGE IN SEASONS AS WE APPROACH SPRING WILL ALSO HELP TO INHIBIT
ANY FURTHER SIGNIFICANT ICE FORMATION AS HEATING OF THE WATER UNDER
THE ICE CAN ASSIST IN THE DECAY PROCESS DESPITE ANY BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.
WHEN ICE EXISTS EXTENSIVELY IN THE RIVERS, FLUSHING OF THE ICE
NORMALLY BEGINS THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. AREAS OF OPEN WATER ALREADY
EXIST AND ARE CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN THE ST MARYS RIVER.
THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC AND THE ST MARYS RIVER USUALLY SEE THEIR
LAST ICE IN LATE APRIL. WITH THE WARMER WINTER THIS SEASON, THE
AMOUNT OF SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINING IS LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
GONE BEFORE THIS TIME FRAME.
PERHAPS USING EL NINO ITSELF DOES NOT DESCRIBE FULLY THE UNUSUALLY
MILD CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY
OF 2024. NORTHERN GREAT LAKES CLIMATE SITES, ON AVERAGE, WERE 4 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY, AND 2 TO 4 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES CLIMATE SITES. THIS WAS
LIKELY HELD IN CHECK SOMEWHAT BY, AGAIN, THAT MIDDLE 10 DAY TO 2
WEEK PERIOD DOMINATED BY THE POLAR VORTEX WHERE WE HAD OUR ONLY
REALLY SIGNIFICANT SUSTAINED COLD/BELOW FREEZING AIRMASS IN PLACE
FOR ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE SEASON, YET THE MONTH OF JANUARY
STILL ENDED UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AND YET, THIS PALED IN COMPARISON
TO FEBRUARY 2024. THE CLIMATE SITES FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WERE ANYWHERE FROM 9 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH, WITH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SLIGHTLY LESS DRAMATIC, YET STILL WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AT 7 TO 10 DEGREES FOR THE MONTH. THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION WAS IN THE POSITIVE PHASE FOR THE BULK OF THE WINTER,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID JANUARY, A CHARACTERISTIC OF MILDER
CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN US. THE RESULT WAS THE EARLY ICE COVERAGE
PEAK WE SAW AND LOW PERCENTAGE OF COVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON.
SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES SHOW LAKE SUPERIOR
PRIMARILY SHOWING MID TO UPPER 30S, BUT STILL SLIGHTLY COLDER IN
WHITEFISH BAY AT JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. LAKE
MICHIGAN SITS NEAR 40 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS EXCEPT FOR
THE AREAS WEST OF THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE MID 30S AT THE SURFACE. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR
NORTHERN LAKE HURON EAST OF THE STRAITS, BUT FURTHER SOUTH, UPPER
30S DOMINATE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE ST. CLAIR RIVER. LAKE ERIE IS
ALSO IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN, AND LOW
TO MID 30S FOR THE EASTERN BASIN.
LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF MARCH, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO PUSH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE GREAT
LAKES, AGAIN, INCREASING IN CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE US - CANADIAN
BORDER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TRANSITION TO A NEUTRAL PHASE OF EL
NINO IN LATE SPRING, AND THEN POSSIBLY BACK TO LA NINA FOR THE NEXT
ICE SEASON COMING UP AT THE END OF 2024. WHILE COLDER AIRMASS
INTRUSION INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EVEN
INTO APRIL, ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ICE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ICE PRODUCT ISSUED FOR THE 2023-2024 ICE
SEASON. SPECIAL THANKS TO THE US NATIONAL ICE CENTER FOR THEIR
COORDINATION THIS SEASON. THE NEXT FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE
UPCOMING 2024-2025 WINTER SEASON WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOVEMBER AND WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL ICE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP ON THE GREAT LAKES.
MARSALEK
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