368  
FLUS44 KTSA 222220  
HWOTSA  
 
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
520 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2020  
 
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231045-  
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-  
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-  
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-  
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-  
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-  
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-  
520 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2020  
 
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS  
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  
   
DAY ONE
 
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  
RISK...LIMITED.  
AREA... PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  
ONSET... AROUND MIDNIGHT.  
 
HEAVY RAIN.  
RISK...LIMITED.  
AREA... PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  
ONSET... AROUND MIDNIGHT.  
 
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.  
RISK...LIMITED.  
AREA... EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  
ONSET... ONGOING.  
 
FIRE WEATHER DANGER.  
RISK...LIMITED.  
AREA... EASTERN OKLAHOMA, MAINLY WEST OF US 75.  
ONSET... ONGOING.  
 
DISCUSSION...  
ELEVATED WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MILES PER HOUR CONTINUE ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR  
BEING REPORTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE WINDS COMBINED  
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES HAS ELEVATED THE FIRE  
THREAT INTO THE LIMITED CATEGORY. THIS CATEGORY DESIGNATION WOULD  
BE HIGHER IF IT WASN'T FOR THE UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEW POINTS  
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA  
AND PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THE FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL  
QUICKLY DECREASE ONCE THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
VALUES INCREASE.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY  
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT  
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT  
AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA BY MID MORNING  
TOMORROW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED  
SEVERE STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS  
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. STORMS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND THE FRONT  
THUS MAKING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR  
SIZE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH  
BY SUNRISE.  
 
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...  
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.  
   
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN
 
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.  
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  
 
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT  
CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH STORM CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE AFTERNOON.  
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT. A BRIEF DRY  
PERIOD IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT  
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY  
THIS FRONT FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD COLD  
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR  
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE THUS REDUCING THE  
WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCERTAIN  
FOR MONDAY IN TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL.  
THE ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT  
AMONG THE MODELS OF PRECIPITATION FALLING DURING THESE TWO DAYS.  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS CLOSELY.  
 
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  
 

 
SNIDER  
 
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