368
FLUS44 KTSA 222220
HWOTSA
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
520 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2020
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231045-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
520 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2020
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
DAY ONE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA... PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET... AROUND MIDNIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA... PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET... AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA... EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET... ONGOING.
FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA... EASTERN OKLAHOMA, MAINLY WEST OF US 75.
ONSET... ONGOING.
DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MILES PER HOUR CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR
BEING REPORTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE WINDS COMBINED
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES HAS ELEVATED THE FIRE
THREAT INTO THE LIMITED CATEGORY. THIS CATEGORY DESIGNATION WOULD
BE HIGHER IF IT WASN'T FOR THE UNSEASONABLY HIGH DEW POINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THE FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE ONCE THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES INCREASE.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. STORMS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND THE FRONT
THUS MAKING THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR
SIZE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY SUNRISE.
SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH STORM CHANCES DIMINISHING BY THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT. A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH RECORD COLD
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE THUS REDUCING THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCERTAIN
FOR MONDAY IN TUESDAY IN REGARDS TO THE WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THE ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS OF PRECIPITATION FALLING DURING THESE TWO DAYS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS CLOSELY.
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
SNIDER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page