089  
FNUS74 KAMA 181155  
FWSAMA  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SEWAGE AREA RX...BORGER FIRE DEPT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
655 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 18.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (806) 335-1421, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED  
AT THE BURN SITE THROUGH THURSDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT BOTH TODAY AND  
THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR AT THE BURN  
SITE AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY LEAD TO GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR  
OR AT THE BURN SITE.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1600, THEN 1-8 STRIKES.  
TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 97.  
RH..................68 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE  
SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 0-1500 FT AGL  
INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING,  
THEN INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 9500-11000 FT AGL EARLY  
IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL  
DECREASING TO 10000 FT AGL LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 15  
TO 22 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO  
THE SOUTH 10 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /0 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. MAX...FAIR /28500  
KNOT-FT/ INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (68000  
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE MORNING.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY COVER.......CLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR PCLDY PCLDY  
WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ ISOLTD  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 20  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 2  
TEMP............68 74 85 92 96 92  
RH..............68 57 39 29 24 28  
20 FT WIND......S 10 SW 12 SW 10 SW 9 S 9 S 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 11 11 11  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 1.0 4.0 9.5 11 10  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 20 20 12 10 10  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/10000 17 68 95 96 91  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES UNTIL 2200, THEN NO TSTMS.  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 68.  
RH..................MAX 81 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 14  
TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (43500-75700 KNOT-FT)  
DECREASING TO POOR TO FAIR (0-23700 KNOT-FT) IN  
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY COVER.......MCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR  
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........ISOLTD ISOLTD  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 10 10 0 0  
LAL.............2 2 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............92 84 78 76 74 71  
RH..............28 38 51 59 64 72  
20 FT WIND......S 10 S 10 S 12 S 10 S 9 S 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 14 11 7  
MIX HGT (KFT)...8.0 4.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SE S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 13 15 18 20 16  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/100076 44 0 8 8 7  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1300, THEN 9-15 STRIKES.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 89.  
RH..................MIN 38 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-4500 FT AGL  
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO  
1000-2500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-34100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
POOR TO GOOD (12900-54000 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY COVER.......PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY  
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ CHANCE CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 30 30  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 3 3  
TEMP............69 68 79 84 87 89  
RH..............75 81 59 47 42 38  
20 FT WIND......S 7 S 8 S 9 S 9 S 10 SE 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 9 11 11 14 14  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.1 0.5 3.0 3.5 1.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 12 13 15 15  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/10000 0 5 34 44 20  
 

 
FORECASTER...ANDRADE  
REQUESTED BY...ARCHIE STONE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1915682.0/AMA  
.DELDT 09/18/19  
 
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