061  
FNUS74 KTSA 191015  
FWSTSA  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR PRESSON RX...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
515 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 19.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT NWS TULSA AT (918)838-7838, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE  
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION IMELDA LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.  
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............70.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 14  
TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO FAIR (19900 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
STABILITY CLASS.....4.  
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).88.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........50 52 53 55 57 58 60 62 63 65 65 65  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............72 72 73 76 80 84 86 89 90 91 92 92  
DEWPOINT........68 69 70 72 72 72 72 72 72 71 71 71  
RH..............87 90 90 87 77 67 63 57 56 52 51 51  
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 6 6 7 7 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.3 3.1 5.3 7.0 7.8 7.9 7.3 5.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 3 6 8 10 14 16 17 18 18 18 18  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 12 12 12 12 12 12 20 20 20 20 20  
1700FT MIX T(F).89 86 85 85 85 87 88 90 91 92 92 90  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,  
THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.  
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............71.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND  
5 MPH AFTER 3 AM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH DECREASING TO 2 TO 7 MPH  
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (19900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (100 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
STABILITY CLASS.....5.  
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).83 DECREASING TO 76 AFTER 3 AM.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 68 70 72 75  
WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
TEMP............91 88 83 80 78 77 75 74 74 73 72 71  
DEWPOINT........71 71 72 72 72 72 71 72 71 71 70 70  
RH..............52 57 70 77 82 85 87 93 90 93 93 97  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST. 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.8 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 16 12 7 3 2 3 5 5 6 6 6  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..20 4 4 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0  
1700FT MIX T(F).87 85 85 86 86 86 85 83 81 79 77 75  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS LIKELY.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.  
MIN HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT.  
DEWPOINT............71.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 23 TO  
29 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO FAIR (20000 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
STABILITY CLASS.....4.  
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).76.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........77 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 83 82 80 79  
WEATHER COV.....CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
TEMP............70 70 70 72 75 76 78 79 80 81 81 81  
DEWPOINT........70 70 70 72 72 72 73 73 73 73 73 73  
RH..............100 100 100 100 90 87 85 82 79 77 77 77  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 10 10 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 12  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.7 3.4 4.8 5.5 5.5 4.9 3.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 6 8 10 16 23 29 29 28 25 23  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 11 11 11 11 11 11 20 20 20 20 20  
1700FT MIX T(F).75 74 74 73 74 75 77 78 79 79 79 78  
 

 
FORECASTER...JANKOWSKI  
REQUESTED BY...ERICK RIETSCHIER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1915705.0/TSA  
.DELDT 09/19/19  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL ERIETSCHIER@TNC.ORG  
 
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