556
FXUS64 KAMA 210511
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1211 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- WATCHING FOR A POTENTIAL SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN, POTENTIALLY SOME
HEAVY RAIN, TO THE COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS COMING WEEKEND.
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALOFT TODAY AND
TOMORROW. LEADING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. FOR TODAY, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF AND BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT, LESS THAN 10 MPH, UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE LOW. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE SOME VARIABILITY IN THE
WIND DIRECTIONS AS WELL. TOMORROW, HOWEVER, THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REORGANIZE TO GIVE BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SETS UP OVER THE WEST COAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
GOING INTO FRIDAY, THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ARE PROGGED TO FALL
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN TIPS
OF CA/NV. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER LIMITING DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S FOR FRI. POPS ARE EXPECTED TO START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT AS PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE GETS
CARRIED UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
INCREASING FRI NIGHT TO AROUND AN INCH ON SAT, MAYBE EVEN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN, AND MAINLY
CONFINING POPS TO THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT, EVENTUALLY SPREADING LIKELY POPS TO INCLUDE THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER AND EXIT
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. WHICH WILL IMPACT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN AMOUNTS. GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EVENT AT THIS TIME. IN FACT, WPC CURRENTLY HAS THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES UNDER A 15%
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT. WITH THE EASTERN PANHANDLES UNDER A 5% PROBABILITY WITHIN
25 MILE OF A GIVEN POINT. AT THIS TIME WIDE SPREAD SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWER 60S FOR AN AFTERNOON HIGH SUN INTO MON. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE KEPT COOL DUE TO THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER, MORE SO THAN ANY ACTUAL CAA BEHIND A FRONT. WINDS ARE
LOOKING TO SHIFT BEHIND A FRONT ON MONDAY, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT LOOKING TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KTS DECREASING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 KTS AND
POTENTIALLY GAINING A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page