398  
FXUS64 KAMA 240232 AAA  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
932 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
BASED ON HRRR AND TTU WRF RUNS AS WELL AS MODEL ISENTROPIC LIFT  
FORECASTS LATE TONIGHT, WAS NOT COMFORTABLE SHOWING NO POPS FOR  
LATE TONIGHT PERIOD FOR CENTRAL ZONES. EXTENDED A SLT CHC TO LOW  
CHC POP TO INCLUDE AMA TO GUY FOR LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, STILL  
LOOKS LIKE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE FOR MOST  
WITH A SOGGY WEDNESDAY IN STORE FOR MOST. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT  
CHANGES.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2018/  
 
AVIATION...  
 
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION  
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CIGS  
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MORNING AND EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS  
DEVELOPING AROUND MID DAY AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST. VSBY WILL ALSO  
BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 MILES, BUT MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CIGS BELOW 1000  
FT. LOOKS LIKE LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT DESPITE  
RAINFALL ENDING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
MJG  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2018/  
 
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...  
 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND WILL TAP  
INTO SOME MOISTURE FROM WILLA. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS  
THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF  
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AS  
COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES  
WILL PICK UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND WILL CONTINUE  
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES  
LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EVENT,  
BUT ALL AREAS HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE TO SEE ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN  
INCH OF RAINFALL.  
 
WEBER  
 
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK  
 
A BENIGN AND SEASONAL PATTERN LOOKS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM.  
PRECIP WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING AS  
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV TROUGH EXITS. THURSDAY HIGHS WILL DEPEND  
ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS CLEAR AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BE MORE LIKELY  
TO SEE A BIT WARMER READINGS THAN EASTERN SECTIONS.  
 
A WEAK NW FLOW UPR TROUGH MAY TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THU  
NIGHT IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY  
BE A BIT TOO DRY FOR PRECIP.  
 
TWO WARM AND NICE DAYS ARE ON TAP FRI AND SAT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT. FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY WILL  
BACK TO WEAK SOUTHWESTERLIES ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS MAINLY UNDER 15  
MPH MAKING FOR A NICE COUPLE OF DAYS. WENT WITH HIGHS AROUND  
ECE/MEX WHICH WAS ODDLY WELL ABOVE SUPERBLEND TEMPS.  
 
A COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO BRUSH THE AREA SAT NIGHT AS A  
SEASONALLY STRONG UPR LOW SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAGS THE  
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. OUTSIDE OF BREEZY WINDS  
SUNDAY MORNINGS, IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH  
JUST A BRIEF COOL DOWN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.  
 
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A MIDWEEK  
UPR LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH SHOWS SOME PROMISE OF BRINGING OUR NEXT  
DECENT PRECIP CHANCES JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST.  
 
SIMPSON  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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