740
FXUS64 KAMA 091124
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
524 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AVOID
ACTIVITIES THAT PROMOTE OPEN FLAMES AND SPARKS.
- PRECIPITATION IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FORECAST RAIN TOTALS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS LOWER VALUES AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE IN ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS MORNING WITH OBSERVED DEW POINTS IN
THE TEENS. THESE VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO GO WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES. WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS COMBINED WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR FURTHER DETAILS, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW. HAVE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE
GRAY COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS.
MUSCHA
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND MOST PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70'S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THE NBM ENSEMBLES FAVOR MORE
WIDESPREAD 80'S, RECENT CAMS AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO 70 THAN 80 DEGREES. STILL, THERE
ARE A FEW LOCATIONS, MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES, THAT COULD TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER 80'S THIS AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50'S AND 60'S ACROSS THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL STILL BE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH UNTIL THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE
TO WAIVER IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE; BUT IF A FEW SHOWERS
CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH, QPF TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT (<0.1").
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT, A STEADY RAMP UP IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. 20'S AND LOWER 30'S ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AS LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL EXPERIENCE
ANOTHER INCREASE BEFORE OUR NEXT COOLDOWN THIS WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT MOST LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE MAIN TIME FRAME WILL BE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NBM POPS ARE HIGH DURING THIS TIME WINDOW, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW FAR LESS QPF
COVERAGE THAN THE NBM CURRENTLY SUGGESTS. MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE,
LIKE THE GEFS, SHOW MEAN PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION TOTALS CLOSER TO
0.25" INSTEAD OF 0.5" OR 0.75". THE CURRENT TAKE ON THE OUTLOOK IS:
PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT MAY
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY AS THE NBM WOULD PROPOSE. GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE ONCOMING TROUGH LATE THIS WEEK, THIS WOULD FAVOR
LOWER QPF OUTCOMES; HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLES
THAT GIVE THE COMBINED PANHANDLES GREATER THAN 0.5" TOTAL QPF.
CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ARE EXPECTED, SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. BREEZY TO
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS. WIND GUST POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AROUND 15 KTS OR SO.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD. ADDITIONAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.
MUSCHA
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
AN INCOMING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE LOW
AND UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT SET UP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. PRESENT CAMS DO SEE POTENTIAL FOR THE 850MB JET TO PEAK
AROUND 40KT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE
A BENEFIT FOR THESE WINDS TO BLEED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH PRESENT
EXPECTATIONS SEEING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUST
UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. IN THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLES,
LATEST CAMS HAVE SEEN A STRONG PRESENCE OF THE JET, WHICH HAS SEEN
BEST CHANCES (40 TO 45%) OF GUST EXCEEDING 40 MPH. HOWEVER, WHAT
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THIS AFTERNOON IS THE STRONG SIGNAL OF VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AS IT STAND LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SEE AFTERNOON HIGH PUSH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME WELL KNOW HOTTER LOCATIONS
POSSIBLE NEARING 80. THESE ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURE HAVE ALSO
COINCIDED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MULTIPLE MODELS SEEING RH
VALUES BOTTOMING OUT BELOW 10% WITH PARTS OF THE CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY HAVING CHANCES TO DROP AS LOW AS 5%. THESE WEATHER FEATURES
IN CONJUNCTIONS WITH PRESENT FUEL STATUS HAS LEAD TO THE EXPECTATION
OF CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR MULTIPLE COUNTIES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM NOON TO 6 PM.
ONE CAVEAT FOR TOMORROW, HOWEVER, WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW GOING INTO TUESDAY. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES,
EXPECTATIONS ARE TO SEE WINDS STAY BREEZY BEYOND SUNSET WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR AN EXTENSION OF THE PRESENT RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WHERE THE UNCERTAINLY LIES; HOWEVER, IS
OUR RH RECOVERY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRESENTLY
MODELS DOSE SEE THE INCOMING FRONT BRING IN MOISTURE BEHIND IT WITH
A LITTLE EXTRA AID COMING FROM THE SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF US ALONG THE
US/MEXICO BOARDER. IF THE FRONT OR THIS MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE EARLY,
WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THEN THESE CONCERNS COULD BE
SHORT LIVED. REGARDLESS DO LOOK FOR A SHIFT IN WINDS TO MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ001>014-016-017-317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...05
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