372
FXUS64 KAMA 200536
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1136 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
- SLIGHT WARMUP TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S THIS AFTERNOON.
- WATCHING FOR A POTENTIAL ARCTIC AIRMASS TO MOVE IN WITH SNOW
CHANCES PRESENT FOR THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
A STRONG CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY HOLDING OVER THE
HUDSON BAY, WHICH IS KEEPING THE PANHANDLES UNDER A MORE NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO STAY
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE REGULATED
FOR THE MID-WEEK. AS IT STANDS, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO STAY
MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH THE OCCASIONAL LEANING TOWARDS THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 60S IN OUR NOTORIOUSLY HOTTER AND COLDER SPOTS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS PATTERN IS NOT SEEING MUCH IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION, WITH CHANCES STAYING BELOW 10% FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO MARK THE START OF A PATTERN CHANGE WITH
MULTIPLE MODELS SEEING A COLD FRONT PUSH IN SOMETIME THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION OF A NEW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING IN FROM OUR NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT AND TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY
TRENDING TOWARDS PUTTING THE PANHANDLES UNDER A TWOFOLD WINTER
WEATHER IMPACT FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FIRST AND
CURRENTLY MOST CONFIDENT IMPACT, IS GOING TO BE THE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AS MULTIPLE MODELS ARE SEEING A VERY COLD AIR MASS
FOLLOW BEHIND THE INCOMING FRONT. AS IT STANDS LATEST TRENDS ARE
SEEING AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY PLUMMET INTO THE 20S TO 30S WITH
SATURDAY POSSIBLY SEEING HIGH NEAR THE TEENS. THESE COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONCERNS ABOUT MORNING CONDITIONS
AS WINDS CHILLS COULD REACH BELOW ZERO. AS FOR THE SECOND IMPACT,
MULTIPLE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN SEEING HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FORCE IT WAY ACROSS TEXAS FROM BOTH GULF SOURCES FOR BOTH THE MID
AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS MOISTURE ALONGSIDE THE
LIFT COMING FROM THE FRONT IS MORE THAN CAPABLE OF CREATING SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, WHERE, WHEN, AND HOW MUCH
ARE A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT STORY. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON THE WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT THE BIGGEST
BULLSEYE IN FOR HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNT, WITH PRESENT GFS FAVORING
JUST SOUTH OF US. AS FOR THE ENSEMBLES, THEY CURRENTLY FAVOR US
SEEING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS, WITH CHANCES OF
SEEING AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW BY SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 50 TO
70%. EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THAT TIME FRAME
WITH PRESENT ENSEMBLE RUNS SUGGESTING CHANCES OF 5 INCHES OR MORE
RUNNING AROUND 30 TO 40% FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER, HOPES ARE NOT SET TOO HIGH ON THESE AMOUNTS AS THEY ARE
RELYING ON A LOT OF MESOSCALE FEATURES FALLING INTO PLACES THAT
CAN EASILY CHANGE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. FOR
NOW, CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN HIGH ON THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SNOW IN
THE PANHANDLES, BUT NOT IN THE POSSIBLE AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO HOLD FOR THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WELL AS
ALL OF TUESDAY. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PICKUP AT THE SURFACE FOR ALL
THREE TERMINALS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY AROUND 10 TO 15KT WITH GUST AROUND 25KT.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD FOR THE CURRENT
PACKAGE.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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