540
FXUS64 KAMA 132326
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
626 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES.
- VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 TO 80
MPH. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TOMORROW AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ARISE EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
THE BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. THESE BREEZY WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE TONIGHT, WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
A STRONG H500 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TOWARDS THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER THE CWA TOMORROW MORNING WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH
REGARDS TO THE HIGH WINDS, STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
OF 60 MPH OR HIGHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING SHORTLY AFTER
OR AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE
FORECAST DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
LLJ WILL BE THE STRONGEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH FORECAST
WINDS AROUND 55 TO 65 KTS ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THESE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS AT LEAST A
20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 70
MPH TOMORROW. THESE STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO BRING IN DRIER AIR
SO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT THE
PEAK WIND GUSTS MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED BY MID AFTERNOON.
JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO GENERATE VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. GIVEN ALL THE DRY AIR
AT THE SURFACE WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH, IF ANY, RAIN TO GET
TO THE SURFACE BUT HAVE KEPT IN LOW MENTIONS OF POPS FOR NOW.
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WINDS WILL START TO SLOWLY DECREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AND A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE IN OVER THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS
TIME. THIS FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO OUT OF THE NORTH BUT WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, BUT
IF THERE ARE ANY FIRES ONGOING, THE DIRECTION OF SPREAD COULD
EASILY SWITCH WITH THE WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE 30S AREA
WIDE WITH SOME LOCATIONS BELOW FREEZING TO START THE WEEKEND.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MID MARCH. AS THAT TROUGH EXITS OFF TO THE EAST LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB AND
HIGHS TO START THE NEW WEEK MAY EVEN REACH THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. IN FACT, THERE IS AT THE MINIMUM
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE IN ANY LOCATION REACHING 80 ON MONDAY OR
TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE NBM (WITH UPWARDS OF 90
PERCENT OR HIGHER). IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES, WINDS
WILL START TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL VERY LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE MAIN CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND THAT WILL USHER IN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP TEMPERATURES BY 20 TO
30 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO STRENGTHEN LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO BECOME VERY
WINDY AROUND SUNRISE, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 35-45 KTS
GUSTING TO 60-65 KTS. BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED THAT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. HAVE DROPPED VISIBILITY
TO 3 TO 4 MILES DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS, BUT IT COULD
CERTAINLY BE LOWER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME LESS STRONG IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT STILL EXPECTING 25-35 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 KTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
VANDEN BOSCH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN UPWARDS OF 35
TO 45 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR LOWER AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY
AS WEST WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 TO
POTENTIALLY 80 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO LEAD TO RFTI VALUES OF 4 TO 7. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BY THE EVENING
HOURS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THANKFULLY,
WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE WIND
SHIFT COULD CHANGE THE DIRECTION OF FIRE SPREAD IF ANY ARE STILL
ONGOING. A HIGH WIND WARNING AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
MUSCHA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 42 64 37 57 / 0 0 0 20
BEAVER OK 44 68 34 60 / 0 20 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 39 61 30 53 / 0 20 10 10
BORGER TX 45 69 39 60 / 0 10 0 10
BOYS RANCH TX 41 66 36 58 / 0 0 10 20
CANYON TX 41 63 36 56 / 0 0 0 20
CLARENDON TX 47 66 41 58 / 0 0 0 10
DALHART TX 36 63 31 55 / 0 10 10 20
GUYMON OK 41 65 33 57 / 0 20 0 0
HEREFORD TX 39 62 34 56 / 0 0 10 30
LIPSCOMB TX 48 68 39 59 / 0 10 0 0
PAMPA TX 45 67 39 58 / 0 0 0 10
SHAMROCK TX 48 69 40 60 / 0 0 0 10
WELLINGTON TX 48 68 41 61 / 0 0 0 10
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>012.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ001>020-317.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ001>020-
317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ001>003.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...52
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