102
FXUS64 KAMA 221132
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR SOME LOCATIONS AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. THESE LOWS ARE BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO HAVE
ADJUSTED THE ONGOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT IMPACT THE HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
MUSCHA
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE STILL PRESENT FOR NEXT WEEK. THE AREAS WITH
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FLOOD RISK ARE IN THE NORTHEAST COMBINED
PANHANDLE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN DAY 1 OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. PREVAILING
SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY, A SURFACE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THIS FEATURE. 00Z CAMS SUGGEST THAT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
IN, BUT THE LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY HINDER THUNDERSTORM
SUSTAINABILITY. 1-3 KM THETA-E VALUES SHOW FAVORED MOISTURE CONTENT
THE NORTHERN ZONES OF OUR CWA; THUS, POPS HAVE BEEN RESTRICTED TO
THOSE AREAS.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN THE EXTENDED, THE AFOREMENTIONED
PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MOST OF THIS PERIOD. ONCE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH, LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE NOT KEEN ON REINTRODUCING THE HIGH BACK OVER THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL AND PUT US BACK INTO A PATTERN OF DAILY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR AREAS ACROSS THE REGION.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK, MODEL BLENDS AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE HONING IN ON A TIGHTER HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL BE THE COOLEST
DAYS OF THE COMING WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70'S AND 80'S. A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST HAVE THE BEST CHANCES TO STAY BELOW 70
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT NOT ALL LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
CONFIDENT ON THIS OUTCOME SINCE IT WILL BE PRECIPITATION (AND SKY
COVERAGE) DEPENDENT. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES
RANGE IN THE 80'S AND A SECOND POTENTIAL COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL
MAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RETURN TO THE 90'S ANY TIME
SOON.
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE
HIGHEST QPF WILL SET UP OVER THOSE AREAS, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH +1" RAIN TOTALS WILL BE. AS PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSES, A MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN REGIME, WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER, WILL OVERTAKE THE COMBINED PANHANDLES STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FLOODING POTENTIAL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES RECEIVING THE HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS DUE TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN A THREE DAY
TIME FRAME. NOT ONLY THAT, BUT THE WHOLE CWA MAY SEE MAX QPF
INCREASE THROUGH THE WHOLE WEEK SINCE POPS CARRY ON EVEN BEYOND THE
CURRENT EXTENDED PERIOD. CONTINUOUS WAVES OF RAIN WITH SMALL WINDOWS
OF RECOVERY MAY EVENTUALLY HEIGHTEN FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE WHOLE
AREA.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
PRISTINE FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS AROUND
10 KTS OR LESS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS TAF CYCLE.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...05
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