230
FXUS64 KAMA 210914
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
314 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
- MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO POTENTIALLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60, WITH MID 30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE HIGHWAY. GRADUAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA STARTING TODAY. THIS WILL TRANSITION OUR TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER EACH DAY, WITH TODAY'S HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. SIMILAR
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN WE ENDED UP WITH THIS MORNING'S LOWS. WITH THE RIDGE
MORE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY, WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS TO CREEP UP A BIT
MORE, AND WIDESPREAD 60S ARE EXPECTED. THE PALO DURO CANYON AREA
MAY GET CLOSE TO 70 FOR A HIGH ON FRIDAY, AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE ABOVE AVERAGE DAY. AND FRIDAY NIGHT'S LOWS
WILL BE FOLLOWING THE SAME TREND. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THURSDAY
MORNING.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
ON SATURDAY, BUT SUNDAY COULD STILL BE QUITE MILD, WE'RE STILL
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WIND SHIFT AND FRONTAL TIMING. IT DOES LOOK
AS THOUGH A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY ON SUNDAY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40. SO HIGHS IN THE NORTH MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK 60, WHILE THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WE DO HAVE AN OUTLIER MODEL THAT HINT'S AT A SLOW FRONT ARRIVAL,
BUT WHEN IT ARRIVES IT WILL SURGE THROUGH QUICKLY. THAT WOULD
SUPPORT POSSIBLE HIGHS IN THE SOUTH TO APPROACH 80. RIGHT NOW THAT
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT 10%, BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS, THAT THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER, BUT SURGE FASTER.
BACKING UP TO SUNDAY MORNING IS ANOTHER INTERESTING THING TO
NOTE. WE'RE EXPECTING A SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST TO KEEP WINDS UP
IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD SUPPORT GOOD MIXING
AND KEEP THE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP NEAR 60, AND WE CERTAINLY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARMEST LOWS TO BE SET IN AMARILLO AND
DALHART FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
MONDAY ONWARD, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, BUT
AGAIN, WE STILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND POSSIBLE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN, AN BRING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S ON TUESDAY. AGAIN, THERE'S A LARGE
DISAGREEMENT WITH WARMER SOLUTIONS GETTING CLOSE TO 70 ON
TUESDAY, AND COLDER SOLUTIONS BARELY GETTING ABOVE 50 FOR A HIGH.
THIS DISCREPANCY WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER TO WEDNESDAY, WITH
AGAIN SOME HIGHER END MODELS SUGGESTING WE GET TO 70, AND THE COLD
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING 40S TO NEAR 50. IT ALL COMES DOWN TO IF WE
REMAIN UNDER THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SUPPRESSING THE
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH, OR IF WE CAN GET ANOTHER RIDGE TO BUILD
AND ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO RETURN. ALL IN ALL, IT LOOKS LIKE VERY
LIMITED CHANCES AT PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED, AND HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEBER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD ALL TERMINALS AT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER WEATHER OF NOTE
WILL BE A WIND SHIFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT WILL SEE
SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
TERMINALS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE SPEEDS GREATER THAN 10 TO 12 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 61 33 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 54 29 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 56 28 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 60 32 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 59 30 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 60 31 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 59 34 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 58 27 62 27 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 55 26 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 62 31 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 56 32 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 58 34 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 59 34 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 59 33 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...11
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