625  
FXUS64 KAMA 310537  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
1237 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z  
MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME  
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS  
AFTER 09Z TO 11Z SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS  
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 18Z SUNDAY.  
 
SCHNEIDER  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2020/  
 
AVIATION...  
 
FOR THE 00Z TAFS:  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WIND  
SPEEDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.  
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLY FOR KDHT AND KGUY AS THUNDERSTORMS  
CONTINUE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO.  
 
GUERRERO  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2020/  
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE  
REST OF TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE  
PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL, AS MOST OF THE  
MOISTURE WILL BE ISOLATED TO THE NM AREA. SMALL CHANCE THAT  
SOMETHING CLIPS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION  
IN THE FORECAST. THE STORY DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH FOR SUNDAY AS THE  
HIGH DOESN'T REALLY MOVE MUCH OVER THE CONUS, AND THEREFORE NOT MUCH  
DIFFERENT. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LEE SURFACE LOW DOES  
CHANNEL A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND HIGH  
PLAINS AREA. THEREFORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH  
RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.  
 
WEBER  
 
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY SAMPLED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL  
SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS  
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY INCREASED SUBSIDENCE, WARMER 500MB  
TEMPERATURES TRANSLATING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.  
EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, MAXING OUT  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S GIVEN 850MB  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 26 TO 28 DEG C RANGE ON THE CAPROCK. BREEZY  
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE  
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ADJACENT TO LEE SURFACE TROUGH.  
 
A WEAK 500MB CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO IS  
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER  
AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS  
LOW DOES SHOW 500MB PVA AND INCREASED MOISTURE AMIDST GENERAL  
500MB RIDGE ACROSS PLAINS, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SLUGGISH LAPSE RATES  
AND LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES VERY LOW MONDAY.  
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY DO IMPROVE TUESDAY BASED ON MODEL  
SKEW-T PROFILES, BUT NVA TAKES OVER IN WAKE OF WEAKENING LOW AS IT  
SHIFTS EAST KEEPING POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE  
COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WHICH MAY BE A  
FACTOR IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHERN  
CWA AS OPPOSED TO UPPER 90S IN THE NORTHERN CWA.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST FLOW  
ALOFT AS 500MB ANTICYCLONE BECOMES DOMINANT OVER FAR SOUTHERN NM,  
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX, AND NORTHERN MEXICO THEN EXPAND  
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, A WEST COAST TROUGH STRENGTHENS WITH MODELS  
INDICATING A CLOSED CUTOFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA BY WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AS  
FAR EAST AS WEST TEXAS. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES  
WITH A DIFFUSE QUIESCENT DRYLINE / SFC TROUGH IN THE AREA. DEW  
POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE  
PANHANDLE BY PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BE  
QUITE HIGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH, WITH VALUES IN  
EXCESS OF 1" RESULTING IN NEAR DAILY MAX VALUES POSSIBLE AT KAMA.  
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE DIURNALLY. THE GFS AND EC HAVE BEEN  
CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BOTH WED AND THURS  
NEAR THE SFC TROUGH. SUBTLE IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO  
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THUS, A FEW STORMS CERTAINLY CAN'T  
BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED  
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.  
 
WARD  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
11/29  
 
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