634
FXUS64 KAMA 130528
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1228 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOLLOWED BY LARGE
HAIL.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND PEAK
THIS WEEKEND WHICH MAY RESULT IN HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES FOR
THOSE THAT ARE OUTSIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE MAIN AXIS OF AN H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND SHOULD BE OVER THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THIS SCENARIO,
WITH FORECAST HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 90S. VERY LIMITED SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE SO SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER MAY ARISE
EVEN THOUGH THE WIND WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH.
BEING UNDERNEATH A RIDGE IS NOT THE MOST IDEAL WAY TO GET STORMS,
BUT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEING ACHIEVED AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGING OVER THE REGION, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY
FORM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT QUITE A BIT
OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, SO FOR THESE SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BE
GOOD RAINFALL PRODUCERS IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY. PWAT VALUES INCREASE
NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE, BUT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT FORM MAY
BE DECREASING IN STRENGTH OR DISSIPATING BY THE TIME THEY GET THAT
FR EAST. EVEN THOUGH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST,
CANNOT RULE OUT STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS (PERHAPS UP TO 70-75
MPH) FROM STORMS OR EVEN ANY SHOWERS AS DCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
1000 J/KG. A LESSER THREAT OF HAIL MAY ARISE IF INSTABILITY VALUES
OVERACHIEVE COMPARED TO THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE. ANYTHING THAT
FORMS, WHETHER IT BE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR
SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFT OFF
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
OFF TO THE EAST, THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE PLACED OVER
EASTERN NM AND WEST TX WHICH WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER HOT DAY IN THE
90S AND SOME AREAS REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. THOSE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW WIDESPREAD THE CLOUD COVER
IS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON SINCE THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY BEING
REACHED, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS STILL ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS DCAPE VALUES PEAK INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. STORMS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HAVE A QUICKER FORWARD PROGRESSION ON THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD ONLY AID IN THE DOWNBURST WIND GUST THREAT, SO TO HAVE A
WIND GUST UPWARDS OF 80 MPH IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES A BIT LATER
INTO THE EVENING GIVEN THEY WILL HAVE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT RATHER THAN
JUST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING MET. ALL SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OR MOVE OFF INTO OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
EVEN THOUGH THE PANHANDLES WILL MAINLY BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW TO START
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST, THE HEAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 90S
TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAYS WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PEAKING INTO THE LOWER 30S
CELSIUS. IN FACT, CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (105 DEGREES TO 109 DEGREES), IN THE MORE PROMINENT HOT
SPOTS ACROSS THE CWA, SUCH AS PALO DURO CANYON AND THE CANADIAN
RIVER VALLEY. ANY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO AT
LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH THE CONTINUED HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY OCCUR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS THE EAST, SEVERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED BUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP. THAT TREND MAY
CHANGE AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE STARTS
TO MOVE IN. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE DATASETS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THAT ANY
SEVERE STORM THREAT ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF TO THE
EAST AS THE DRY LINE MIXES INTO WESTERN OK. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THOUGH THAT THE DRY LINES HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER WEST IN
RECENT WEEKS, BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THAT TREND CONTINUES OR
NOT BEFORE INTRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS
THE EAST. THE ENVIRONMENT ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME AS THE MODELS DO HAVE THE DRY LINE HANGING
BACK A BIT FURTHER WEST. IF THAT DOES OCCUR, SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.
THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY AND A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROPEL SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OUT AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT VARIES
QUITE A BIT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH LEADS TO LITTLE CONFIDENCE
IN THE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL, COOLER WEATHER DOES
APPEAR LIKELY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE PLAINS.
IF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN
DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH, ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
ARISE. IF IT TRACKS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH, BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD
TO CONTINUED ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE, WITH KAMA HAVING THE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS. STORM CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 10
PERCENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
GUSTY AND SPORADIC WIND GUSTS WOULD BE A RESULT OF ANY STORMS
FORMING NEAR THE TERMINALS. THE WIND, INITIALLY OUT OF THE EAST
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW AND THERE
COULD BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ001>003-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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