523
FXUS64 KAMA 250541
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1241 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING MAY DROP DOWN ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON BOTH OF THESE DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THANKFULLY,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE MOSTLY ABOVE 15 PERCENT SO ONLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY TIED THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT
AMARILLO AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
DAYTIME HEATING LEFT TO GO. BORGER MAY ALSO TIE OR BREAK THE
RECORD HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN
KANSAS AND SHOULD START TO ENTER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE NEAR
SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLES BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
INITIAL GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE UPWARDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. A MUCH
COOLER AIR MASS WILL SIT OVER THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW WITH H850
TEMPERATURES PEAKING AROUND 12 TO 24 CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH DECREASING
WINDS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE COOL AIR MASS STILL IN
PLACE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY MORNING.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. THE MORE FALL LIKE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S, WHICH ARE STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. H500 HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA. A SUBTLE RIDING PATTERN WILL AID IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RECORD HIGHS ONCE AGAIN TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
OVERALL TRACK AT THIS TIME DOES NOT FAVOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
PANHANDLES. INSTEAD THE TREND LOOKS TO BE TOWARDS STRONG WINDS
WITH THE DRY SLOT MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED IF NOT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE SOUTH
OVER THE PLAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE POTENTIAL FRONT REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 5-15
KTS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MECCARIELLO
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 71 42 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 69 39 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 65 37 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 73 42 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 70 41 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 71 40 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 73 44 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 66 37 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 67 36 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 71 41 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 71 40 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 70 42 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 74 43 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 76 45 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...29
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