625
FXUS64 KAMA 310537
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1237 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020
AVIATION
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER 09Z TO 11Z SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z TO 18Z SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 620 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2020/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLY FOR KDHT AND KGUY AS THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO.
GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2020/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL, AS MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ISOLATED TO THE NM AREA. SMALL CHANCE THAT
SOMETHING CLIPS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST. THE STORY DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH FOR SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH DOESN'T REALLY MOVE MUCH OVER THE CONUS, AND THEREFORE NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LEE SURFACE LOW DOES
CHANNEL A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND HIGH
PLAINS AREA. THEREFORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
WEBER
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY SAMPLED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL
SLOWLY PUSH EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY INCREASED SUBSIDENCE, WARMER 500MB
TEMPERATURES TRANSLATING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, MAXING OUT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S GIVEN 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 26 TO 28 DEG C RANGE ON THE CAPROCK. BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ADJACENT TO LEE SURFACE TROUGH.
A WEAK 500MB CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO IS
PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER
AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
LOW DOES SHOW 500MB PVA AND INCREASED MOISTURE AMIDST GENERAL
500MB RIDGE ACROSS PLAINS, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SLUGGISH LAPSE RATES
AND LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES VERY LOW MONDAY.
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY DO IMPROVE TUESDAY BASED ON MODEL
SKEW-T PROFILES, BUT NVA TAKES OVER IN WAKE OF WEAKENING LOW AS IT
SHIFTS EAST KEEPING POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS WHICH MAY BE A
FACTOR IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE LOW 90S IN THE SOUTHERN
CWA AS OPPOSED TO UPPER 90S IN THE NORTHERN CWA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS 500MB ANTICYCLONE BECOMES DOMINANT OVER FAR SOUTHERN NM,
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX, AND NORTHERN MEXICO THEN EXPAND
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, A WEST COAST TROUGH STRENGTHENS WITH MODELS
INDICATING A CLOSED CUTOFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AS
FAR EAST AS WEST TEXAS. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES
WITH A DIFFUSE QUIESCENT DRYLINE / SFC TROUGH IN THE AREA. DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE BY PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BE
QUITE HIGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH, WITH VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1" RESULTING IN NEAR DAILY MAX VALUES POSSIBLE AT KAMA.
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE DIURNALLY. THE GFS AND EC HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BOTH WED AND THURS
NEAR THE SFC TROUGH. SUBTLE IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THUS, A FEW STORMS CERTAINLY CAN'T
BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
WARD
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
11/29
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page