102  
FXUS64 KAMA 091131  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
631 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 525 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO RACE SOUTH AND IS CURRENTLY  
THROUGH MUCH OF HANSFORD AND OCHILTREE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.  
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE TO MOVE  
SOUTH AND THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE STORM HAVE PRODUCED WIND  
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF 45-50 MPH. AS THIS  
STORM MOVES INTO AN ALREADY WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT FROM  
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE NIGHT, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT IT SHOULD  
WEAKEN, ESPECIALLY WITH BULK SHEAR DECREASING AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE  
UPDATED THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON  
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.  
 
MUSCHA  
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
-SMALL BREAK FROM STORMS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED  
STORMS POSSIBLE, BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN THURSDAY  
INTO THE WEEKEND, AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING BECAME MORE ORGANIZED AS A  
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. STORMS EARLIER  
THIS EVENING CREATED A STRONG OUTFLOW THAT CONTINUES TO PUSH  
SOUTHWEST TOWARD AMARILLO WITH MULTIPLE STORMS DEVELOPING IN A STILL  
FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. OTHER RESIDUAL OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AS WELL, AND ANY  
COLLISION WITH THIS STRONGER OUTFLOW COULD CERTAINLY SPARK UP NEW  
STORMS. POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 1AM AND  
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH FROM 1-4AM. THINGS SHOULD QUIET  
DOWN THEREAFTER, BUT THERE IS A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE  
NORTHWESTERN KS AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED, AS IT COULD TRACK  
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,  
GIVEN THE STORMS THAT WERE ACTIVE IN OUR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND  
SOUTHWEST KS, THAT AREA IS LIKELY WORKED OVER, AND STORMS MAY NOT BE  
ABLE TO SUSTAIN IF THEY REENTER THAT ENVIRONMENT.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE  
FOUR CORNERS TOMORROW, AND THAT WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS TOMORROW. GIVEN HIGHER THAN NORMAL  
DEWPOINTS AND RECENT MOISTURE THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE FOR POP UP  
STORMS TOMORROW, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A SUBTLE WAVE THAT COULD HELP  
TRIGGER A STORM OR TWO, SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES, TO REALLY ACCOUNT FOR JUST THE  
ISOLATED POTENTIAL. OVERALL, TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE ON THE QUIETER  
SIDE.  
 
THURSDAY, LOOKS TO HAVE A LOT MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO  
THE PANHANDLES AND A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE  
LATE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS  
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD  
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME  
HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH.  
 
WEBER  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WE'RE LOOKING AT QUITE THE ACTIVE  
WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME CAVEATS THAT COULD SUPPORT OR SUPPRESS  
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST OFF, THE HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS  
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE  
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY. THAT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR  
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST  
AND TRACK EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE WIND WITH  
THESE STORMS. PWAT'S WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.2-1.4" RANGE AND MODERATE  
TO HEAVY RAIN IS ANOTHER CONCERN AS WELL. HAIL STILL A POSSIBILITY,  
BUT A HIGHER FOCUS WILL BE ON THE WIND.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WE'LL BE REALLY GETTING THAT MOISTURE  
PUSHED INTO OUR AREA AS A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO HELP PUSH GULF MOISTURE TO THE  
AREA. ADD TO THAT ANY DISTURBANCES THAT PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES  
TO HELP PROVIDE MORE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
INTO TUESDAY. NOW, SOME THINGS THAT MAY WORK AGAINST US WOULD BE  
MODELS NOT ACCOUNTING FOR THE ENVIRONMENT BEING WORKED OVER FROM THE  
DAY BEFORE AND IT MAY BE OVER-CONVECTING ON A DAILY BASIS, AS WELL  
AS OUTFLOW FORM OTHER STORM OR COMPLEXES THAT COULD BE  
NORTH/SOUTH/EAST OF OUR AREA, COULD SEND A COLD POOL INTO OUR AREA  
AND STABILIZE US. SO IT'S LIKELY GOING TO NEED TO BE TAKEN A DAY AT  
A TIME.  
 
WEBER  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONGOING  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF  
KGUY/KAMA BUT OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SPORADIC  
GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER  
IN THIS TAF CYCLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT ANY SITES IS LOW.  
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10-15 KTS.  
 
MUSCHA  
 
 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...89  
LONG TERM....89  
AVIATION...05  
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