415
FXUS64 KAMA 140541 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1241 AM CDT WED APR 14 2021
AVIATION
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS INTO THE MVFR AND
IFR CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES DURING
THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A MINOR UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AT KAMA AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION FROM MID MORNING UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON.
02
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 647 PM CDT TUE APR 13 2021/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS:
A SOMEWHAT TRICKY SET OF TAFS IS ON DECK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT, BUT CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO
DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND PERHAPS ALL DAY TOMORROW. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE KAMA SITE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY START TO FILL IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THREE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN AS WELL. AT TIMES, WE COULD SEE CEILINGS DROP TO
IFR AND SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES WITH THE LIGHT RAIN.
GUERRERO
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE APR 13 2021/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
NAM DOES BRING IN SOME PRECIP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT APPROACH THE PANHANDLES THROUGH
TONIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE MID LEVELS
MOISTENING UP AS OF 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE
TO BE TOO DRY. HOWEVER, BY 06Z WEDNESDAY, THE LOWER LEVELS
SATURATE AS THE MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW ADVECTS LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS INCREASE THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
WITH CLOUD COVER AND THE COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGHS LOWER WEDNESDAY AND WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM MOS
GUIDANCE AND CONSALL RATHER THAN THE NBM. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AND ALSO CENTRAL PANHANDLES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCHNEIDER
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
BY THURSDAY, THE WEAK RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
BE PUSHED EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES EAST
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ANOTHER PERTURBATION WILL EJECT OVER
THE PANHANDLES WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES SOCKED IN WITH LOW
CLOUDS WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW
700MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OF A DRIZZLE ACROSS MOST AREAS AND
A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DUE TO A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE
SURFACE, ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM WILL BE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND PULLS UP PACIFIC MOISTURE. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE NORTH AND EASTERN PANHANDLES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME ELEVATED WEAK
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. BY FRIDAY MORNING
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY BEGINS TO FILTER IN, CUTTING OFF A
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLES. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY ACROSS BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES AS THE SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH AND COOLER AIR ALOFT. THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED
TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WITH THE FRONT COMES
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS A FACTOR THAT COULD LIMIT THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH
THE COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
TIME WHERE THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO A FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW IN SOME
AREAS. NO MAJOR CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
RIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE, ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES EJECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION EARLY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNINGS MAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING. BY MONDAY, THIS NEXT
SYSTEM TAKES A DIVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DRY AIR CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE
SUPPLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE SLOW TO PICK UP ON A POTENTIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO CONTINUOUS LOW CLOUD COVER AND
LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THE NBM IS TRENDING
LOWER BY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. BASED ON THE FACT
THAT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH HEATING FROM THE SUN, TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED LOWER THAN NBM. FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES ARE
ESPECIALLY TRICKY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TRENDING TOWARDS A NON-DIURNAL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES.
RUTT
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
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