893  
FXUS64 KAMA 181919  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
219 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2024  
 
AS OF 12 PM, A BOUNDARY IS PUSHING WEST, BUT SLOWING WITH TIME, INTO  
THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NOW IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING  
CUMULUS UPON IT JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF DALHART. A FEW CAMS SUGGEST  
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THAT VICINITY OR FURTHER SOUTH.  
ADDITIONALLY, CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TX  
PANHANDLE THAT HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GROW VERTICALLY, BUT HAVE  
GENERALLY FAILED THUS FAR. AS ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS,  
WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP.  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON'T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON,  
PRIMARILY DUE TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.5-6.5 C/KM, BUT  
RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD STILL  
MAKE 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACHIEVABLE WITH 1500 J/KG SEEMING TO BE  
THE CEILING. PER USUAL FOR JULY, WIND SHEAR IS NOTHING TO WRITE HOME  
ABOUT BUT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 25-30 KTS WOULD LEAD  
TO SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. DCAPE VALUES WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO  
WHAT WE'RE USED TO FOR JULY DUE TO THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,  
BUT VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1300 J/KG IS STILL ACHIEVABLE WHICH IS STILL  
ENOUGH FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS  
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES, BUT DOES SEEM TO BE A LOWER  
THREAT THAN THE WIND DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK MID-LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES AND GENERALLY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. HOWEVER, IF EFFECTIVE  
BULK SHEAR CAN OVERACHIEVE AND A SUPERCELL CAN OCCUR, CERTAINLY  
COULD SEE SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NEW  
MEXICO/COLORADO ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,  
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY BUT TREND TOWARD  
NORTHERLY TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN NEW MEXICO AWAY  
FROM THE CWA. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE  
FROM WHAT DEVELOPS IN EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND MOVE SOUTH-  
SOUTHEAST. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  
 
FRIDAY MORNING... CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LINGERING RAIN/STORMS OR  
CLOUDS, BUT THAT SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST  
THERE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE 700MB THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN  
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  
CAMS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN COLORADO FRIDAY  
EVENING THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES AROUND MIDNIGHT.  
HOWEVER, MOST CAMS HINT THAT THE LINE WILL STRUGGLE AS IT MOVES  
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES.  
 
VANDEN BOSCH  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2024  
 
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES  
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL  
PERSIST OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL  
PERSIST OVER THE MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES  
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON  
SUNDAY. THESE FRONTS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONTS PROVIDE A FOCUS TO LIFT THE LOW  
LEVEL MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. OTHERWISE, DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE TO RELY ON ANY  
CONVECTION MOVING THIS WAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS OR ANY LEFT OVER  
SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM DAY TO DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
TO BE AROUND OR BELOW AVERAGE SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CDT THU JUL 18 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE  
IS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH TERMINAL  
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE, TIMING, AND OCCURRENCE  
IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. THE MOST FAVORED  
TIME WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z TO 03Z. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF  
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.  
 
VANDEN BOSCH  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMARILLO TX 67 93 68 90 / 20 10 40 50  
BEAVER OK 65 91 64 87 / 20 20 50 20  
BOISE CITY OK 62 93 61 86 / 40 30 50 20  
BORGER TX 69 98 69 95 / 20 20 40 40  
BOYS RANCH TX 67 96 66 91 / 40 10 50 40  
CANYON TX 65 93 65 89 / 30 10 40 60  
CLARENDON TX 65 91 67 90 / 20 20 20 50  
DALHART TX 62 94 61 89 / 40 10 50 30  
GUYMON OK 64 93 62 87 / 20 20 50 20  
HEREFORD TX 65 94 66 90 / 30 10 40 50  
LIPSCOMB TX 65 91 67 89 / 20 20 40 40  
PAMPA TX 65 91 66 89 / 20 20 40 50  
SHAMROCK TX 65 91 67 90 / 20 20 20 60  
WELLINGTON TX 65 93 68 92 / 10 20 20 60  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...52  
LONG TERM....15  
AVIATION...52  
 
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