398  
FXUS64 KAMA 281744 AAB  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
1144 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY AS  
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN  
WEST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND LEE SIDE  
TROUGHING DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSLOPING WILL AID  
IN TEMPS CLIMBING TODAY INTO THE 60S. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS  
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS  
THE AREA. AS THE LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CO, THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE  
PANHANDLES TODAY. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR, WILL ALSO  
MEAN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE  
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE  
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, THE LEE SIDE LOW WILL BE KICKED OUT  
AND SLIDE EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN KS OVERNIGHT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE  
GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED. A LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS  
THE AREA AND WILL KEEP MIXING ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT, KEEPING  
WINDS BREEZY. THIS MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO  
STAY ELEVATED.  
 
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID  
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE DOORSTEP OF THE OK PANHANDLE.  
THERE MAY BE A COUPLE HOURS IN THE MORNING FOR WARMING TO TAKE  
PLACE AND GET THOSE AREAS INTO THE 40S, BUT AFTER THE FRONT STARTS  
PUSHING IN, THE TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DROP DRASTICALLY. MODELS  
CONTINUE TO QUICKEN THE PACE OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST  
OF THE MODELS. THE DETERMINISTIC EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE ON  
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND PROJECT IT TO BE IN THE TOP TIER OF  
THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE BY NOON. ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS  
HAVE THE FRONT CLEARING THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE BY THE EVENING  
HOURS. IF THE FRONT STAYS SLOW ENOUGH, THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE  
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMING TO CLIMB TO  
THE MID 50S OR LOW 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THESE FRONTS CAN COME  
BARRELING THROUGH THOUGH, AND IF SO, IT WOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE AND  
WARMING. THUS, THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE HIGH TEMPS COULD BE MUCH  
COOLER. SO FAR, EVEN THE NBM 5TH PERCENTILE SHOWS THE SOUTH HAVING  
TIME TO WARM UP.  
 
WITH A LLJ STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE  
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO  
WINDY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE WILL  
BE THE FAVORED AREA TO SEE THE STRONGER WINDS SINCE THAT AREA WILL  
BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IN THE LOCATION OF THE JETS AT 850MB  
AND 700MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 700MB WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 50 MPH,  
THERE ARE SOME STREAKS IN THE MODELS OF STRONGER WINDS THAT COULD  
BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE. THUS SOME ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS  
COULD BE POSSIBLE. EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG, RH IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT, LIMITING ANY FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS FOR THE DAY.  
 
THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA. AS THE  
TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA, THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES  
WITH THE FAR EASTERN OK PANHANDLE SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE  
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING HOURS, LEADING TO TEMPS  
DROPPING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN MAXIMIZE WITH THE NEW ARCTIC  
AIRMASS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO THE LOW TEENS TO PERHAPS  
THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT, WHICH  
MAY HELP LIMIT SOME OF THE WIND CHILLS FOR THE MORNING. HOWEVER,  
SOME AREAS, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH, MAY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE  
SINGLE DIGITS TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  
 
BEAT  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH A GRADUAL  
WARMING TREND GOING INTO FRIDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED THU AND FRI WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S TO  
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH  
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES LATE FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT THE NEXT COLD  
FRONT COOLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S FOR  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL POSSIBLY RETURN  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 
A COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY AND WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT  
THE AREA ON WED. H85 TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BARELY WARM TO  
THE -1 TO 3 DEGREES C. DESPITE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AGAIN  
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WED  
AFTERNOON WILL BE HELD BACK IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. GOING INTO  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S ACROSS  
THE ENTIRE FA ONE LAST TIME BEFORE THE WARMUP GOING INTO THU.  
 
THURSDAY, MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ALOFT OVER THE FA WITH A MID  
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER  
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
H85 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REBOUND INTO THE 10 TO 12 DEGREE C  
RANGE, WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR  
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES BOTH THU AND FRI. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL  
FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO AND IS PROGGED TO BRING SOME BREEZY TO  
POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH THU AND FRI. THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS  
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WILL AIDE IN THE WARM UP. WIND  
HIGHLIGHTS MAY POSSIBLY BE NEEDED THESE TWO DAYS.  
 
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS NORTH OVER  
MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., THE TROUGH OVER THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THU WILL START TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL TO  
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS FRI. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
TOWARDS THE FA LATE FRI INTO SAT. THOUGH THIS FRONT MAY BE WEAK  
THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FAVOR SOME GOOD SUBTROPICAL  
MOISTURE BEING PUMPED INTO THE SOUTHERN FA FROM BOTH THE GULF OF  
MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE  
50S ON SATURDAY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE PLUME OF  
MOISTURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW THE QPF SEEMS MORE  
LIKELY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF WEST  
TEXAS AS WELL AS SE NM. THIS MAY CHANGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND  
AND MAY VERY WELL GIVE SOME PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF  
THE FA. HAVE STAYED WITH THE NBM AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY SLIGHT  
CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND INTO LUBBOCK'S NORTHERN  
CWA. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE COVERAGE AND EVEN THE TIMING OF ANY  
POSSIBLE QPF AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND  
ON HOW LONG THE RAIN AND CLOUDS LAST GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
36  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND  
NORTHWEST AT DHT AND GUY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE  
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST AT THE AMA SITE AFTER SUNRISE.  
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMARILLO TX 42 57 19 43 / 0 0 0 0  
BEAVER OK 39 44 15 43 / 0 0 20 0  
BOISE CITY OK 34 38 11 42 / 0 0 0 0  
BORGER TX 45 54 20 47 / 0 0 0 0  
BOYS RANCH TX 41 54 18 47 / 0 0 0 0  
CANYON TX 42 58 18 45 / 0 0 0 0  
CLARENDON TX 41 62 22 42 / 0 0 0 0  
DALHART TX 37 51 13 43 / 0 0 0 0  
GUYMON OK 37 43 13 44 / 0 0 0 0  
HEREFORD TX 40 59 19 47 / 0 0 0 0  
LIPSCOMB TX 43 48 18 44 / 0 0 0 0  
PAMPA TX 41 50 19 44 / 0 0 0 0  
SHAMROCK TX 42 60 23 44 / 0 0 0 0  
WELLINGTON TX 41 66 25 44 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...16  
LONG TERM....36  
AVIATION...15  
 
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