398
FXUS64 KAMA 240232 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
932 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2018
UPDATE
BASED ON HRRR AND TTU WRF RUNS AS WELL AS MODEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
FORECASTS LATE TONIGHT, WAS NOT COMFORTABLE SHOWING NO POPS FOR
LATE TONIGHT PERIOD FOR CENTRAL ZONES. EXTENDED A SLT CHC TO LOW
CHC POP TO INCLUDE AMA TO GUY FOR LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, STILL
LOOKS LIKE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE FOR MOST
WITH A SOGGY WEDNESDAY IN STORE FOR MOST. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2018/
AVIATION...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MORNING AND EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AROUND MID DAY AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST. VSBY WILL ALSO
BE REDUCED TO 1 TO 3 MILES, BUT MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CIGS BELOW 1000
FT. LOOKS LIKE LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT DESPITE
RAINFALL ENDING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MJG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2018/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND WILL TAP
INTO SOME MOISTURE FROM WILLA. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S AS
COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES
WILL PICK UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES
LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EVENT,
BUT ALL AREAS HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE TO SEE ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL.
WEBER
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
A BENIGN AND SEASONAL PATTERN LOOKS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM.
PRECIP WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV TROUGH EXITS. THURSDAY HIGHS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS CLEAR AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BE MORE LIKELY
TO SEE A BIT WARMER READINGS THAN EASTERN SECTIONS.
A WEAK NW FLOW UPR TROUGH MAY TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THU
NIGHT IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT TOO DRY FOR PRECIP.
TWO WARM AND NICE DAYS ARE ON TAP FRI AND SAT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE FRIDAY WILL
BACK TO WEAK SOUTHWESTERLIES ON SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS MAINLY UNDER 15
MPH MAKING FOR A NICE COUPLE OF DAYS. WENT WITH HIGHS AROUND
ECE/MEX WHICH WAS ODDLY WELL ABOVE SUPERBLEND TEMPS.
A COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO BRUSH THE AREA SAT NIGHT AS A
SEASONALLY STRONG UPR LOW SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAGS THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. OUTSIDE OF BREEZY WINDS
SUNDAY MORNINGS, IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH
JUST A BRIEF COOL DOWN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A MIDWEEK
UPR LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH SHOWS SOME PROMISE OF BRINGING OUR NEXT
DECENT PRECIP CHANCES JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST.
SIMPSON
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
88/89
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