398
FXUS64 KAMA 281744 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1144 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY AS
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND LEE SIDE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSLOPING WILL AID
IN TEMPS CLIMBING TODAY INTO THE 60S. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. AS THE LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN CO, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR, WILL ALSO
MEAN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE
ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, THE LEE SIDE LOW WILL BE KICKED OUT
AND SLIDE EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN KS OVERNIGHT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED. A LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA AND WILL KEEP MIXING ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT, KEEPING
WINDS BREEZY. THIS MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO
STAY ELEVATED.
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE NEARING THE DOORSTEP OF THE OK PANHANDLE.
THERE MAY BE A COUPLE HOURS IN THE MORNING FOR WARMING TO TAKE
PLACE AND GET THOSE AREAS INTO THE 40S, BUT AFTER THE FRONT STARTS
PUSHING IN, THE TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DROP DRASTICALLY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO QUICKEN THE PACE OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST
OF THE MODELS. THE DETERMINISTIC EC AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND PROJECT IT TO BE IN THE TOP TIER OF
THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE BY NOON. ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE THE FRONT CLEARING THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE BY THE EVENING
HOURS. IF THE FRONT STAYS SLOW ENOUGH, THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMING TO CLIMB TO
THE MID 50S OR LOW 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THESE FRONTS CAN COME
BARRELING THROUGH THOUGH, AND IF SO, IT WOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE AND
WARMING. THUS, THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE HIGH TEMPS COULD BE MUCH
COOLER. SO FAR, EVEN THE NBM 5TH PERCENTILE SHOWS THE SOUTH HAVING
TIME TO WARM UP.
WITH A LLJ STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO
WINDY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE WILL
BE THE FAVORED AREA TO SEE THE STRONGER WINDS SINCE THAT AREA WILL
BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IN THE LOCATION OF THE JETS AT 850MB
AND 700MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 700MB WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 50 MPH,
THERE ARE SOME STREAKS IN THE MODELS OF STRONGER WINDS THAT COULD
BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE. THUS SOME ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG, RH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT, LIMITING ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR THE DAY.
THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA. AS THE
TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA, THE NORTHERN AREAS MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES
WITH THE FAR EASTERN OK PANHANDLE SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING HOURS, LEADING TO TEMPS
DROPPING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN MAXIMIZE WITH THE NEW ARCTIC
AIRMASS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO THE LOW TEENS TO PERHAPS
THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT, WHICH
MAY HELP LIMIT SOME OF THE WIND CHILLS FOR THE MORNING. HOWEVER,
SOME AREAS, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH, MAY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BEAT
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND GOING INTO FRIDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THU AND FRI WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S TO
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES LATE FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT COOLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL POSSIBLY RETURN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY AND WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA ON WED. H85 TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BARELY WARM TO
THE -1 TO 3 DEGREES C. DESPITE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AGAIN
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WED
AFTERNOON WILL BE HELD BACK IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA. GOING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FA ONE LAST TIME BEFORE THE WARMUP GOING INTO THU.
THURSDAY, MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ALOFT OVER THE FA WITH A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
H85 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REBOUND INTO THE 10 TO 12 DEGREE C
RANGE, WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED FOR
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES BOTH THU AND FRI. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO AND IS PROGGED TO BRING SOME BREEZY TO
POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH THU AND FRI. THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WILL AIDE IN THE WARM UP. WIND
HIGHLIGHTS MAY POSSIBLY BE NEEDED THESE TWO DAYS.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS NORTH OVER
MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., THE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THU WILL START TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS FRI. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE FA LATE FRI INTO SAT. THOUGH THIS FRONT MAY BE WEAK
THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FAVOR SOME GOOD SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING PUMPED INTO THE SOUTHERN FA FROM BOTH THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE
50S ON SATURDAY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AS OF NOW THE QPF SEEMS MORE
LIKELY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
TEXAS AS WELL AS SE NM. THIS MAY CHANGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
AND MAY VERY WELL GIVE SOME PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. HAVE STAYED WITH THE NBM AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND INTO LUBBOCK'S NORTHERN
CWA. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE COVERAGE AND EVEN THE TIMING OF ANY
POSSIBLE QPF AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW LONG THE RAIN AND CLOUDS LAST GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
36
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AT DHT AND GUY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST AT THE AMA SITE AFTER SUNRISE.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 42 57 19 43 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 39 44 15 43 / 0 0 20 0
BOISE CITY OK 34 38 11 42 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 45 54 20 47 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 41 54 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 42 58 18 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 41 62 22 42 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 37 51 13 43 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 37 43 13 44 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 40 59 19 47 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 43 48 18 44 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 41 50 19 44 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 42 60 23 44 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 41 66 25 44 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...15
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