562
FXUS64 KAMA 142314
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
614 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2022
OVERVIEW:
BESIDES THE HEAT, THE WEEKEND WILL END ON AN UNEVENTFUL NOTE
WEATHER-WISE. A FEW AREAS COULD HIT THE 100 DEGREE MARK TODAY,
INCLUDING THE PALO DURO CANYON, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
AROUND THE MID/UPPER 90S. VERY SIMILAR STORY WITH THE HIGHS FOR
TOMORROW. THE ONE DIFFERENCE FOR TOMORROW WILL BE THE FACT WE HAVE
RAINFALL CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST, BUT THOSE CHANCES WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FURTHER DETAILS:
AN UNFAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NOTED OVER THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT BY TOMORROW NIGHT THE RIDGE ALOFT
MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION INTO
THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, WE MAY HAVE A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER ENERGY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXIST. INITIALLY, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
AROUND 7-8 C/KM, AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR MLCAPE AROUND A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. NOT THE BEST INSTABILITY, BUT IF AN UPDRAFT CAN
MAINTAIN IN THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WE COULD HAVE A
POTENTIAL DOWNBURST AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMICS PROFILE. WE QUICKLY LOSE THE DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH, SO OUR WINDOW FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHORT AS INHIBITION
SETTLES IN AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF ACTIVITY TOMORROW
NIGHT, BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.
GUERRERO
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2022
STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE THE FRONT STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BY MID TO LATE MORNING, THE FRONT WILL BE
AROUND THE I-40 LINE, WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS WANTS TO STALL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE, THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THE
FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IN
LUBBOCK'S AREA. IN PAST EXPERIENCES, THE FRONT HAS BEEN KNOWN TO
CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHWARD WITHOUT STALLING SO THIS PATTERN WILL
NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY. IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TUESDAY,
ONE OF THE AREAS OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THIS
LINE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE, DUE TO THE WEAK SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE
MUCH THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND EVEN
90S ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
NEW MEXICO/COLORADO. GIVEN THE SLIGHT SHIFT OF THE HIGH SOUTHWARD
MONDAY, THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES HAVE THE BEST
SHOT FOR MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE
STEERING FLOW ALOFT BEING WEST NORTHWESTERLY, THE WINDS ARE VERY
WEAK WITH LITTLE TO NO DRIVING FORCE TO SUSTAIN THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WESTERN PANHANDLES HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR SOME
RAINFALL, BUT LINGERING LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE "POST FRONTAL" WITH NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST,
WITH TEMPERATURES BARELY WARMING OUT OF THE 70S. THE REMAINDER OF
THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH A CONTINUED NORTH
NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS IN NORTHWEST MEXICO AND PUSHES THE HIGH UP INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION WITH SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WITH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND EVEN MORE SO THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES.
THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THIS EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY THE HIGH GETS SQUISHED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPPER LOW OVER UTAH AND THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR
WEST, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO CLIP THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN
THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, BUT OVERALL THE CHANCES
FOR THURSDAY AREA BEGINNING TO DECREASE WITH THE LATEST PATTERN
CHANGE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR AS WELL ALOFT; HOWEVER, A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO THE PANHANDLE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP.
BY THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE NOT QUITE TO ONE SOLUTION BUT THE
OVERALL LOOK IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY CONTINUE AND
POTENTIALLY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER, THIS IS DAY 7 AND 8 IN THE FORECAST AND A LOT CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN THEN AND NOW.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT IN THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED AND GIVE A SHORT BREAK FROM THE 90S
AND TRIPLE DIGITS.
RUTT
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2022
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (95%) THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT VFR
AND FREE OF ANY OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM COULD GET NEAR DHT OR GUY VERY LATE IN THE
PERIOD BUT THE CHANCE OF A STORM ACTUALLY AFFECTING EITHER OF
THESE TERMINALS IS VERY LOW (5%). OTHERWISE, GENERALLY SOME FORM
OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FERGUSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 69 95 70 91 / 0 0 0 20
BEAVER OK 71 100 71 94 / 0 0 10 30
BOISE CITY OK 64 96 65 86 / 0 10 20 50
BORGER TX 72 100 73 95 / 0 0 10 20
BOYS RANCH TX 69 96 70 92 / 0 0 10 30
CANYON TX 68 94 68 91 / 0 0 0 10
CLARENDON TX 71 96 71 95 / 0 0 0 10
DALHART TX 64 95 65 89 / 0 0 10 40
GUYMON OK 68 100 68 92 / 0 0 10 40
HEREFORD TX 68 96 68 92 / 0 0 0 10
LIPSCOMB TX 71 100 72 96 / 0 0 10 20
PAMPA TX 70 96 71 93 / 0 0 0 20
SHAMROCK TX 70 99 71 98 / 0 0 0 10
WELLINGTON TX 71 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 10
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...77
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