023
FXUS64 KAMA 082249
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
549 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOLD FOR THE PANHANDLES WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
STARTING TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLE CLEAR
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A DRY AND HOT PATTERN MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKING TO SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS MODELS SEE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRY TO FORCE IT WAY EAST OUT OF THE ALASKA
REGION. IN DOING THIS THE TROUGH WILL FORCE THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE TO RETREAT SOUTHWEST OUT THE
PANHANDLES. THIS RETREAT WILL THEN OPEN US UP TO BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST OR MANY
SHORT-WAVES PUSH ACROSS. CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCES ARE MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, HOWEVER EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE CAMS HAVE
SEEN SOME STORMS EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED WITH
SOME LOW CHANCES (10 TO 15 PERCENT) OF REACHING THE I-40 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING. AS FOR THURSDAY, MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE A
MUCH STRONGER SHORT-WAVE PUSH THROUGH LEADING MUCH BETTER CHANCES
(30 TO 50 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLES THAT EVENING AND NIGHT. WHAT WE WILL NEED TO
BE MONITOR, HOWEVER, IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING BOUNDARIES
FROM TODAY’S ACTIVITY. IF THESE BOUNDARIES CAN STAY WITHIN THE
PANHANDLES, THEN IT IS POSSIBLE FOR ACTIVITY TO START MUCH EARLIER
AND FURTHER SOUTH THEN PRESENT FORECASTS HAVE.
IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY, MOST MODEL
SOUNDINGS HAVE SEE US STRUGGLE IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY WITH ANY
CAPE VALUES STRUGGLING TO REACH 1000 J/KG FOR BOTH DAYS ACROSS OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER, THOSE SAME MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT INVERTED V
STYLE SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE UPWARDS 1700 TO 1900 J/KG. WITH THIS
SIGNAL PRESENT, IT WOULD POSSIBLE TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 70 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH WHERE BOTH CHANCES AND DCAPE ARE AT THEIR BEST. HOWEVER IF
WE CAN GET STORMS TO SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH THURSDAY, THEN THERE IS
SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER CAPE AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAT COULD
RESULT IN LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE
DAY. MEANWHILE THE SOUTH WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL
IMPACT OF WARMER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WHILE
NORMALLY THIS WOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A CONCERN, THIS SLIGHT INCREASE
COULD RESULT IN MUCH OF THE SOUTH REACHING OR NEARING THE TRIPLE
DIGIT MARK FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS. IN SOME OF OUR HOTTER LOCATIONS,
LIKE THE PALO DURO CANYON, THESE HOTTER TEMPERATURE CAN BE
AMPLIFIED TO THE POINT THAT A HEAT RELATED PRODUCT MAY BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
AS WE PROGRESS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, MODEL DO SEE THE
RETREAT OF THE HIGH HOLDING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE PANHANDLES TO
FALL BACK INTO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN. THIS PATTER IS MORE IDEAL IN OPENING US UP TO MORE SHORT-
WAVE ACTIVITY PUSHING THROUGH CLEAR INTO THE WEEKEND. AS IT
STANDS, PRESENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN KEEPING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT EACH DAY. FRIDAY IN PARTICULAR,
CONTINUES TO TREND AS BEST CHANCES (30 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODELS DEPICTING MORE POTENT SHORT-WAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THAT AFTERNOON. OF COURSE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE PRESENT
EACH DAY, WITH CURRENT CAMS SEEING MUCH BETTER CAPE VALUES PRESENT
FOR FRIDAY.
REGARDLESS, STILL LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
LOOK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES HOT WITH MOST LOCATIONS LOOKING TO STAY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER IN SOME
OF OUR LOCATIONS LIKE THE PALO DURO CANYON AND CANADIAN RIVER
VALLEY, THE TERRAIN INFLUENCE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE TO MUCH
MORE. THIS POTENTIAL WILL ONLY LOOK TO INCREASE AS WE NEAR SUNDAY
WITH MANY OF THE MODELS SEEING THE RIDGE AND ITS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
RETURN AND PUSH FURTHER NORTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS PUSH MAY BRIEFLY HELP PUSH STORMS CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH ON FOR THE WEEKEND, THE PANHANDLES COULD BE IN FOR A
HOT AND DRY WEEK, SHOULD THE PATTERN HOLD INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE 00Z PERIOD IS WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR
KGUY AND KDHT THIS EVENING WHERE CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGHEST.
ACTIVITY IS SPOTTY AND MAY BE HARD TO TIME, BUT COULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD IN THE COMING HOURS. REGARDLESS, MENTIONS OF THUNDER
HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10-20 KTS FOR
A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, BUT WILL BE MORE ERRATIC OVERNIGHT.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...38
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