464
FXUS64 KAMA 202329
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
529 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
- SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PANHANDLES. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THIS AREA
WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES AND TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY OCCURRING AND SPREADING TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILL VALUES ARE DROPPING DOWN TO -10 TO -25 LASTING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PANHANDLES DUE TO THESE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
A WINTER SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT ARE CURRENTLY PASSING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BEFORE EJECTING SOUTHWARD BY THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSING SNOWFALL IN THE PANHANDLES WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT, BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL
ALONG THE FRONT, AND LIGHT SNOW DEGRADING TO SNOW FLURRIES POST
FRONT. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FURTHER HALF INCH TO ONE AND HALF
INCHES IN THE PANHANDLES BEFORE IT DEPARTS. THE GRADIENT OF SNOW
IS SUCH THAT THE EASTERN PANHANDLES HAS A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING
THE ONE AND HALF INCHES WHILE THE WESTERN PANHANDLES HAS BETTER
CHANCES OF SEEING JUST HALF AN INCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO OR ARE
CURRENTLY RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL. ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF THE DYNAMICS ARE SUCH THAT SNOW SQUALLS COULD OCCUR CAUSING
A BRIEF BUT VERY SHARP DROP IN VISIBILITIES. SO TRAVEL THROUGH
THIS EVENING MAY BE HAZARDOUS BOTH FROM THE ICY ROAD CONDITIONS
CAUSED BY SNOW AND THE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES CAUSED BE SNOW
SQUALLS. THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING A SHARP
DECREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES AND AN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS IS
CAUSING EXTREME COLD CONDITIONS THAT IS ONGOING IN THE NW
PANHANDLES AND WILL SPREAD SE TO COVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING
PANHANDLES OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE EXTREME COLD
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EVEN WHEN
THE WINDS WEAKEN AS THE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP. THIS WILL
LEAD TO TUESDAY MORNING BEING THE COLDEST MORNING SEEN IN THE
PANHANDLES SINCE LAST WINTER. THESE COLD CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY
END WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WHICH WILL BRING WARMER DOWNSLOPING AIR TO THE PANHANDLES. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A LACK OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY WILL LEAVE
THE DAY DRY WITH SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SH
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
WEDNESDAY THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF BEING
PUSHED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL
INCREASE IN THE TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TUESDAY. THAT SMALL
CHANGE WILL BE THE FULL EXTENT OF THE WARMUP AS A GUSTY NORTH
WIND WILL STABILIZE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE
BOTH DAYS SEE DRY AND FAIR WEATHER.
COME FRIDAY THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT THE WINDS SWING BACK
AROUND TO THE SW BRINGING WARMER DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD IN TURN CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. IF THIS COME TO PASS THEN
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. A CONTINUED LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE DAY DRY AND FAIR AS WELL.
THEN FOR THE WEEKEND THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT ANOTHER PUSH
OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER AS THIS OCCURS THE
UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL WHICH MAY CAUSE THE PUSH OF COLD
AIR TO STALL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WOULD MAKE CONDITIONS
COLDER BUT NOT AS COLD IT COULD HAVE GOTTEN WITH A MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT SOME MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER. THIS MOISTURE CURRENTLY DOES NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT TO
CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. SO THE WEEKEND MAY JUST WIND
UP BEING COLDER AND CLOUDIER WITHOUT MUCH OTHER WEATHER OCCURRING.
THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK HAS A MODERATE CHANCE OF KEEP THE
COLDER AIR AND THUS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. IT SEEMS MORE
FAVORABLE THAN NOT FOR THE MOISTURE TO DECREASE WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO SUNNIER SKIES.
SH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING, LATEST RADAR HAS SEEN THE FULL BREAKDOWN
OF THE SNOW SQUALL THAT MOVE THROUGH KAMA WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HOWEVER, LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER AT THE TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO CREATING IFR TO BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS FOR
CIG AND VISIBILITY. AFTERWARDS, CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT, MUCH
LIKE KDHT AND KGUY ARE CURRENTLY DOING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FULLY RETURN BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 0 36 21 42 / 30 0 0 0
BEAVER OK -5 34 16 42 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK -7 37 16 37 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 1 38 21 44 / 10 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 2 38 19 44 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 2 36 21 43 / 30 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 1 37 20 46 / 40 0 0 0
DALHART TX -5 35 15 41 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK -6 36 16 41 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 0 36 21 43 / 30 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX -2 33 18 42 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX -1 35 21 42 / 20 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 1 36 17 46 / 50 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 3 36 18 47 / 50 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ001>010-013>015.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ001>014-
016>018-317.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ001>003.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...11
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