636
FXUS64 KAMA 251108
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
608 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2021
AVIATION
12Z ISSUANCE...ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS.
WIND GUSTS MAY DROP OFF THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND SHEAR CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STARTING AT 02Z IN THE NORTH AND BY 06Z IN
THE SOUTH AS A 45KT JET WILL BE OVERHEAD.
BEAT
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2021/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TOMORROW ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES.
TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY WARM (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S) AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING WAA IN CONJUNCTION WITH LEE SIDE
TROUGHING THAT WILL ADD DOWNSLOPING WARMING IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY, WE WILL SEE
WINDS BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN
PLACE OVERNIGHT AND WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING OF WINDS TO MAINTAIN THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A WARMER
NIGHT WITH LOW IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE WARM WEATHER AS THE LEE
SIDE LOW PERSISTS. THE LLTR WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTERLY THOUGH.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT, WE MAY HAVE A STACKED JET
OVERHEAD. IF SO, THEN WE COULD SEE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS MIX DOWN
AND BRING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW
HAVE GONE WITH 90TH PERCENTILE NBM, WHICH DOES NOT REACH THE
CRITERIA OVER ENOUGH AREA. THE COMBO OF DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH THE FUELS BEING DRY WILL LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THAT ARE DISCUSSED BELOW. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO POSSIBLY
SET UP IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES
TO BREAK THE CAP, WE MAY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN OUR
AREA. IF IT TAKES TOO LONG, THE DRYLINE MAY SLIDE EAST INTO OK,
LEAVING US ENTIRELY DRY. IF WE CAN KICK OFF STORMS IN OUR AREA,
MODELS INDICATE QUITE LARGE INSTABILITY WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS. BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO BE 30 TO 40 KTS,
PROVIDING SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. DCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
1000 J/KG AND MLCAPE IS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG, PROVIDING FOR
70 TO 80 MPH WINDS AND 1.5 TO 2 INCH HAIL IF ALL THE CAPE CAN BE
REALIZED. 0-1 KM SRH IS A WHOPPING 200 M2/S2 AND WITH LCLS AROUND
1500M, A TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. MANY MODELS DON'T INITIATE
STORMS UNTIL AFTER 7 PM, WHICH COULD LEAVE AMA OUT OF THE PICTURE
FOR STORMS, BUT THOSE FEW THAT DO PRODUCE STORMS EARLY ENOUGH HAVE
ISOLATED COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE ADDED
LIFT FOR SOME PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
SINKS OUR DIRECTION AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEAT
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES. RH WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH.
RFTI VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 0 TO 1, AND ERC VALUES ARE IN THE
50TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE.
TUESDAY WILL SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES WITH CRITICAL BEING
FAVORED IN THE NORTHWEST. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN
THIS AREA. RH IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50
MPH. RFTI VALUES WILL BE 3 TO 4 AND ERC VALUES WILL BE 60TH TO
80TH PERCENTILE. STRETCHING FARTHER OUTWARDS IN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLES, RFTI VALUES REACH 1 TO 3 AND ERCS WILL BE 50TH
TO 70TH PERCENTILE. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE 20 TO 25
MPH WITH 35-40 MPH GUSTS. RH IS EXPECTED TO ALSO DROP TO 15 TO 20
PERCENT. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO POSSIBLY SETUP IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES, WHICH WOULD KEEP THE EASTERN STACK OR TWO JUST MOIST
ENOUGH TO AVOID FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH THE STRONG WINDS
DURING THE DAY, THERE MAY BE PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE WEST. THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN
A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA AND TURNS WINDS NORTHERLY.
TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER 10 PM IN THE NORTHWEST TO START SEEING
THE WINDS TURN. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 7 AM.
BEAT
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SYNOPSIS: THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT. EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY
DROPPING DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER, THE WINDY AND DRY CONDITION WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DETAILS: MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
BRINGING A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TAKE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
AS IT MOVES OVER THE MS/OH VALLEY AREA AND BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF
OVER AR/TN. A STRONG JET STREAK ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST,
WITH 40 TO 45 KNOT NORTH WINDS EXTENDING DOWN TO 850MB WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY (AND POSSIBLY A SMALL PART OF THE EASTERN ZONES
ON FRIDAY). THIS JET STREAK WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. PRESSURE RISES WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
ONE MORE SURGE PROGGED ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF HEIGHT
RISES AT THE SURFACE AND MODEST MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
25 TO 35 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS AT TIMES REACHING AROUND 50 MPH
(LOCALLY HIGHER). BASED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF WINDY CONDITIONS, SHIFTING MORE
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SOME
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING PARTS OF THE AREA (MAINLY
NORTHERN ZONES) COULD APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 60S
FOR MOST AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH SOME RECOVERY GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CAN FINALLY RETURN ONCE AGAIN.
ALSO NOTED IN THE FORECAST BEYOND DAY 7 (HALLOWEEN) THAT MODELS
ARE HINTING AT SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL BASED ON A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING HUDSON BAY LOW. WILL HAVE
TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS, BUT SOME CHILLY AIR IS
SHOWING UP IN ALL OF THE MAJOR OPERATIONAL MODELS AT THIS TIME.
AT LEAST RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER
HALLOWEEN, YET A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BE IN STORE FOR ALL HALLOWS'
EVE.
WARD
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
SOLID ELEVATED WITH AT LEAST SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THIS IS BASED ON MAX RFTI VALUES OF 2 TO 3
WHICH ARE ENTIRELY DUE TO NORTH TWENTY FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH. TWENTY FOOT WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON ON
BOTH DAYS. MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY STAY AROUND 20 PERCENT
BOTH DAYS, WITH NO RHRFTI COMPONENT BEING GENERATED. WFAS ERC
VALUES ARE ALSO PROGGED TO INCREASE TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 70TH
PERCENTILE OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT THESE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN A POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.
WARD
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY...SHERMAN.
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.
16/7
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