102
FXUS64 KAMA 091131
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 525 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO RACE SOUTH AND IS CURRENTLY
THROUGH MUCH OF HANSFORD AND OCHILTREE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH AND THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE STORM HAVE PRODUCED WIND
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF 45-50 MPH. AS THIS
STORM MOVES INTO AN ALREADY WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT FROM
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE NIGHT, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT IT SHOULD
WEAKEN, ESPECIALLY WITH BULK SHEAR DECREASING AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE
UPDATED THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MUSCHA
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
-SMALL BREAK FROM STORMS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE, BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING BECAME MORE ORGANIZED AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. STORMS EARLIER
THIS EVENING CREATED A STRONG OUTFLOW THAT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWEST TOWARD AMARILLO WITH MULTIPLE STORMS DEVELOPING IN A STILL
FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. OTHER RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AS WELL, AND ANY
COLLISION WITH THIS STRONGER OUTFLOW COULD CERTAINLY SPARK UP NEW
STORMS. POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 1AM AND
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH FROM 1-4AM. THINGS SHOULD QUIET
DOWN THEREAFTER, BUT THERE IS A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN KS AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED, AS IT COULD TRACK
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE STORMS THAT WERE ACTIVE IN OUR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
SOUTHWEST KS, THAT AREA IS LIKELY WORKED OVER, AND STORMS MAY NOT BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN IF THEY REENTER THAT ENVIRONMENT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS TOMORROW, AND THAT WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS TOMORROW. GIVEN HIGHER THAN NORMAL
DEWPOINTS AND RECENT MOISTURE THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE FOR POP UP
STORMS TOMORROW, AND THERE MAY EVEN BE A SUBTLE WAVE THAT COULD HELP
TRIGGER A STORM OR TWO, SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES, TO REALLY ACCOUNT FOR JUST THE
ISOLATED POTENTIAL. OVERALL, TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE ON THE QUIETER
SIDE.
THURSDAY, LOOKS TO HAVE A LOT MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO
THE PANHANDLES AND A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WE'RE LOOKING AT QUITE THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME CAVEATS THAT COULD SUPPORT OR SUPPRESS
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST OFF, THE HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY. THAT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
AND TRACK EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE WIND WITH
THESE STORMS. PWAT'S WILL BE BACK IN THE 1.2-1.4" RANGE AND MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN IS ANOTHER CONCERN AS WELL. HAIL STILL A POSSIBILITY,
BUT A HIGHER FOCUS WILL BE ON THE WIND.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WE'LL BE REALLY GETTING THAT MOISTURE
PUSHED INTO OUR AREA AS A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO HELP PUSH GULF MOISTURE TO THE
AREA. ADD TO THAT ANY DISTURBANCES THAT PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
TO HELP PROVIDE MORE LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO TUESDAY. NOW, SOME THINGS THAT MAY WORK AGAINST US WOULD BE
MODELS NOT ACCOUNTING FOR THE ENVIRONMENT BEING WORKED OVER FROM THE
DAY BEFORE AND IT MAY BE OVER-CONVECTING ON A DAILY BASIS, AS WELL
AS OUTFLOW FORM OTHER STORM OR COMPLEXES THAT COULD BE
NORTH/SOUTH/EAST OF OUR AREA, COULD SEND A COLD POOL INTO OUR AREA
AND STABILIZE US. SO IT'S LIKELY GOING TO NEED TO BE TAKEN A DAY AT
A TIME.
WEBER
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
KGUY/KAMA BUT OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SPORADIC
GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
IN THIS TAF CYCLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT ANY SITES IS LOW.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10-15 KTS.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...05
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