135  
FXUS64 KAMA 151118  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
618 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.  
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH AROUND 16Z TO 21Z TODAY WILL  
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z MONDAY TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AT ALL THREE TAF  
SITES.  
 
SCHNEIDER  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 343 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019/  
 
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...  
 
UPPER HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST FURTHER AWAY FROM THE  
PANHANDLES TONIGHT. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR  
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND  
PACIFIC AND BEGIN ADVECTING INTO THE PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT.  
INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST EXPECTED BY TONIGHT ACROSS  
THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES TODAY  
AND TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL  
DEEPEN THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALLOW THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TO  
INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTENS. A SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT  
TONIGHT.  
 
SCHNEIDER  
 
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ARKLATEX AND MIDWEST REGION THROUGH  
MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL OPEN WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER THE  
GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASED  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT OF NM/AZ WITH THE INCREASE  
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. A SUBTLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY NOTED  
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST AZ IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR  
NORTHWESTERN FA MONDAY AND WILL AID IN PRESSURE FALLS IN THE RATON  
MESA REGION. THE INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT  
IN INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING  
THE AFTERNOON WHEN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  
CONTINUED THE TREND OF USING STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TO INCREASE  
WINDS OVER WHAT THE BLEND OFFERED THROUGH TUESDAY. TOO MUCH  
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS BEYOND TUESDAY TO DEVIATE FROM WHAT THE  
BLEND OFFERED, WITH A POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING ON  
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SATURDAY.  
 
AT THIS TIME, EVEN THOUGH SOME DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE  
ADVECTS INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS MONDAY, NEAR SURFACE  
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID  
50S AT BEST. THAT COMBINED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL  
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM IN OUR AREA  
THROUGH MONDAY. THAT COULD CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES  
TO INCREASE WHILE THE MAIN GREAT BASIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THE NAM  
AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LITTLE PERTURBATION EMBEDDED  
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS  
AND STORMS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS RESIDES. AT THIS TIME,  
HAVE RAISED POPS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN TEXAS  
PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK  
AS MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER  
SECONDARY TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER NV/UT AND EVENTUALLY  
LIFTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. STRONGER  
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LEE TROUGHING WILL HELP INCREASE LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MORE LOW 60S DEW POINTS BY THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS  
PROGGED TO STAY NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES, MINOR SHORTWAVES AND  
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS  
(FAVORING THE WESTERN ZONES), SO HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO  
CHANCE POPS OFFERED BY THE BLEND.  
 
WARD  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
11/7  
 
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