668
FXUS64 KAMA 101722
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1222 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT IT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS IN THE
DAYS BEFORE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF
THE COAST OF NORTHERN CA WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SADDLE
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS
ALLOWING FOR A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES LATE IN THE MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL, WITH UNCERTAINTY TO HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT INTO THE
PANHANDLES BEFORE IT DOES. THIS FRONT WILL BE KEY FEATURE FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS AS CAMS SUGGESTS THE CONVERGENCES ALONG THE FRONT
WILL AID IN LIFT FOR CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LIES IN THE OK PANHANDLE
AND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN NM. THERE ARE
ALSO HINTS AT SOME PERTURBATIONS IN THE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO HELP THIS EVENING. TIMING OF THE PERTURBATION OF THE
FLOW ALOFT MAY BE KEY TO INITIATE STORMS AS WELL. HENCE, WHY MOST
CAMS ARE NOT EXCITED FOR ACTIVITY UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNSET.
H7 THETA-E ADVECTION IS ALSO LOOKING TO BE THE BEST ACROSS THE WEST
WRAPPING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO 80S A POSSIBILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, IF MODELS ARE
NOT HANDLING H7 THETA-E VERY WELL ENOUGH MOISTURE COULD POP SOME
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, A DRY H7 LEVEL MAY CAUSE A SMALL CAP, ENOUGH SO
TO LIMIT CONVECTION UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE COMES IN LATER IN THE DAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO THEN EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS WHAT WILL HELP POPS
INCREASE FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SATURDAY IS GOING TO HIGHLY DEPEND
ON THE RECOVERY FROM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, AT LEAST FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT EXITING AND WINDS
RETURNING TO THE SOUTH, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE 70S. MOISTURE WILL BE THERE, BUT BEING SOCKED IN UNDER
CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY MAY INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING AND COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT CONVECTION. HERE'S TO HOPING FOR SOME RAIN
WITHOUT MUCH OF THE SEVERE ASPECT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
SUNDAY, THE EASTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES MAY BE UNDER THE GUN FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER,
NEGATIVE H7 THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. WHERE THIS CUTOFF WILL BE IS IN
QUESTION. THE FA IS LIKELY TO SEE A POTENT DRYLINE SET-UP, BISECTING
THE WESTERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE PANHANDLES FROM THE EASTERN. DRIER
TDS IN THE LOW 30S ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH WSW
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE THE
DRYLINE FEATURE MIX WELL INTO WESTERN OK, MAYBE LEAVING A SMALL
SLIVER OF COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY BY 7 PM SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC, MODELS HAVE
THE TRACK SUCH THAT SUNDAY ONWARD THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ARE
LIKELY TO BE DRY SLOTTED WITH VERY MINIMAL POPS, BELOW 10, THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES THAT COULD SEE SOME SURFACE MOISTURE FROM A RETREATING
DRYLINE GIVING THEM UPWARDS OF 20 POPS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO INTRODUCE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE WEST AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE EAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT KGUY WHILE VFR PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT KDHT, AND
THIS EVENING AT KGUY AND KAMA. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT
KGUY AND KAMA, CONFIDENCE IS STILL THERE TO INCLUDE A PROB30 AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, KGUY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR CEILINGS
FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VANDEN BOSCH
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...52
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