774
FXUS64 KAMA 061051
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
551 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
- MORE WIDESPREAD HOT (>=100 DEGREE) TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES.
- DAILY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO END THIS WEEK,
INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
A MORE "TRADITIONAL", ALBEIT DELAYED ITERATION OF PANHANDLE SUMMER
HAS FINALLY ARRIVED TO THE REGION AS OUR STRONGEST HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OF THE SEASON BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS "HEAT DOME" COMBINED WITH
WARMING 850MB TEMPS AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS IS REINFORCING
THE PRESENCE OF TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS A VAST
MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPS AS HIGH AS 105 FOR LOCATIONS
SUCH AS GUYMON, BORGER, AND PALO DURO CANYON OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE ONLY REAL FACTOR THAT MAY INHIBIT HIGHER TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WOULD BE THE PRESENCE OF INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, BUT WILL CONTINUE FAVORING HOTTER GUIDANCE FOR NOW. WINDS
WILL STAY NOTICEABLY BREEZY AS WELL, THANKS TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS AT TIMES. DESPITE SOME HUMIDITY BEING MAINTAINED, THESE BREEZY
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE HEAT INDEX RELATIVELY AT BAY.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES STAY <10% THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
ANY ACTIVITY FAVORED TO STAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM WHEN
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN. CHANCES SLIGHTLY IMPROVE THU
AFTERNOON-EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NW PANHANDLES UNDER SIMILAR
CIRCUMSTANCES, BUT AGAIN SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15% DUE TO THE
OVERWHELMING INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
MODELS INDICATE THAT FRIDAY MAY BE ANOTHER SHOE-IN FOR WIDESPREAD
TRIPLE DIGITS, SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITIES TO REACH 100 ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WITH THE RIDGE LIKELY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
ACCORDING TO GLOBAL GUIDANCE, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MAY BE ABLE TO
RIDE OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES FRIDAY EVENING. FOR NOW, THIS
FEATURE ONLY HAS ABOUT A 15% CHANCE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION, BUT THESE PROBABILITIES MAY END UP INCREASING IF THE
NAM AND GFS SIDE OF DATA SHOULD COME TO FRUITION.
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES SHOW FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE
HIGH CENTERED TO OUR WEST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM
THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT,
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES
LIKE WE'VE SEEN MOST OF THE SUMMER, ALLOWING DAILY SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES TO COME BACK WITH IT. ANOTHER BENEFIT OF THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS THE RETURN OF TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN
THE 80S AND 90S, PROVIDING HIGH PROBABILITIES (70-100%) FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO STAY BELOW 100 DEGREES MON-WED.
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
THE MAIN THING TO NOTE IS SOME POTENTIAL LLWS FOR ALL THREE
TERMINALS IN THE FIRST COUPLE TO THREE HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD
UNTIL WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 45 TO 50 KTS 2K FEET AGL UNTIL 14Z TO 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TAF PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BREEZY AND
GUSTY SSW WINDS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...36
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