967
FXUS64 KAMA 120458
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1158 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY -
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR A COOLER END TO THE WORK WEEK, THIS "FRY-DAY"
MIGHT NOT BE YOUR CUP OF TEA. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNSHINE STAY IN
CONTROL TODAY, FORCING TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
ONCE AGAIN. WINDS ARE GONNA BE BREEZY AGAIN TODAY, SUSTAINED OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 15-25 MPH, GUSTING 30-35 MPH. DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE AND
PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM MATERIALIZING UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REACHES THE PLAINS.
THIS IS SET TO DRAW SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIFT/DISTURBANCES AND
MOISTURE TO THE REGION, GENERATING PWATS OF 1-1.5" AND UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEW POINTS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE
ONGOING TO OUR WEST OVER NEW MEXICO BY SATURDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY
TRYING TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY.
EARLY ON, SHOWERS SHOULD STRUGGLE WITH WESTWARD EXTENT, LIKELY DUE
IN PART TO A 700MB HIGH TO OUR EAST OVER THE OZARKS PULLING A
DRY-SLOT OVER THE EASTERN TO CENTRAL PANHANDLES. INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S),
WHILE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD BUILD UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH CAPE
VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH 30-40KT
BULK SHEAR. IF PROPER DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR, SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER
THE PLAINS, WITH MODELS HAVING IT TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS
THE BASE REACHES THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MAXIMIZED LIFT TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION FURTHER EAST AS THE THE
DRY LAYER IS LIKELY ERODED BY THE TROUGH. BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS QUITE EXCITED REGARDING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SAT-SAT
NIGHT, PRODUCING 40-70% POPS ACROSS THE CWA AT SOME POINT OR
ANOTHER. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL THE VERY DISTINCT POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN QUITE SCATTERED AND TO DECAY WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT. IN GENERAL THOUGH, THE TRENDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. LOWER-END
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE COMING IN AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A 1/4"
(MORE LIKELY IF ACTIVITY REMAINS SHOWERY), WHILE HIGHER-END TOTALS
COULD EXCEED 1" (MORE LIKELY UNDER ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS).
HARREL
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
WE HAVE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POTENTIALLY LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST
(20-40% POPS). SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES COULD STILL SUPPORT
A ROGUE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THOUGH, WITH DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS. NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION TAKES OVER FROM
THERE AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
COULD ARRIVE THROUGH THE WEEK, PERPETUATING NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S) AND LOW
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL. ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORT AN
UPWARD TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE'S STILL
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE.
HARREL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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