415  
FXUS64 KAMA 140541 AAB  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
1241 AM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, A GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS INTO THE MVFR AND  
IFR CATEGORIES IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES DURING  
THIS FCST CYCLE DUE TO LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND  
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A MINOR UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM  
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR  
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL  
BE AT KAMA AND HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION FROM MID MORNING UNTIL MID  
AFTERNOON.  
 
02  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 647 PM CDT TUE APR 13 2021/  
 
AVIATION...  
 
FOR THE 00Z TAFS:  
 
A SOMEWHAT TRICKY SET OF TAFS IS ON DECK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT, BUT CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO  
DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND PERHAPS ALL DAY TOMORROW. THIS IS  
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE KAMA SITE. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL  
SLOWLY START TO FILL IN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WHICH WILL RESULT IN  
MVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THREE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE  
FOR LIGHT RAIN AS WELL. AT TIMES, WE COULD SEE CEILINGS DROP TO  
IFR AND SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES WITH THE LIGHT RAIN.  
 
GUERRERO  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE APR 13 2021/  
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...  
NAM DOES BRING IN SOME PRECIP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS  
PANHANDLE AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND  
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS PERTURBATIONS WITHIN  
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT APPROACH THE PANHANDLES THROUGH  
TONIGHT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE MID LEVELS  
MOISTENING UP AS OF 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE  
TO BE TOO DRY. HOWEVER, BY 06Z WEDNESDAY, THE LOWER LEVELS  
SATURATE AS THE MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW ADVECTS LOW LEVEL GULF  
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD  
DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL  
CLOUDINESS INCREASE THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG  
WITH CLOUD COVER AND THE COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW WILL  
KEEP HIGHS LOWER WEDNESDAY AND WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER NAM MOS  
GUIDANCE AND CONSALL RATHER THAN THE NBM. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN  
AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING  
BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES FROM THE  
SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER  
ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN AND ALSO CENTRAL PANHANDLES  
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
SCHNEIDER  
 
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...  
BY THURSDAY, THE WEAK RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL  
BE PUSHED EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES EAST  
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ANOTHER PERTURBATION WILL EJECT OVER  
THE PANHANDLES WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY  
THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES SOCKED IN WITH LOW  
CLOUDS WITH MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW  
700MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OF A DRIZZLE ACROSS MOST AREAS AND  
A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DUE TO A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NEAR THE  
SURFACE, ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS.  
 
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM WILL BE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT  
CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND PULLS UP PACIFIC MOISTURE. THE BEST  
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE NORTH AND EASTERN PANHANDLES  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME ELEVATED WEAK  
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES AFTER MIDNIGHT  
WITH SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. BY FRIDAY MORNING  
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY BEGINS TO FILTER IN, CUTTING OFF A  
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST  
PANHANDLES. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN  
PANHANDLES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY CONTINUES  
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY ACROSS BOTH THE NORTHERN AND  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES AS THE SYSTEM BRINGS A COLD  
FRONT THROUGH AND COOLER AIR ALOFT. THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED  
TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WITH THE FRONT COMES  
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS A FACTOR THAT COULD LIMIT THE  
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH  
THE COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF  
TIME WHERE THE RAIN TRANSITIONS TO A FREEZING DRIZZLE/SNOW IN SOME  
AREAS. NO MAJOR CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS SOME OF THIS  
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.  
 
RIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE, ANOTHER TROUGH FORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND  
DISTURBANCES EJECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE  
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. THERE  
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION EARLY  
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNINGS MAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING. BY MONDAY, THIS NEXT  
SYSTEM TAKES A DIVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTHWEST MEXICO WITH ONLY A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES  
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DRY AIR CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE  
SUPPLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
MODELS ARE SLOW TO PICK UP ON A POTENTIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES  
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO CONTINUOUS LOW CLOUD COVER AND  
LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, THE NBM IS TRENDING  
LOWER BY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. BASED ON THE FACT  
THAT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH HEATING FROM THE SUN, TEMPERATURES  
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED LOWER THAN NBM. FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES ARE  
ESPECIALLY TRICKY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING AND  
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TRENDING TOWARDS A NON-DIURNAL PATTERN ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES.  
 
RUTT  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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