554  
FXUS64 KAMA 230535  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
1235 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2020  
   
AVIATION...06Z TAFS
 
 
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IS THE ONGOING LARGELY FUEL ALTERNATE  
MVFR STRATUS. THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH IMPROVEMENT COMING FOLLOWING  
SUNRISE FRIDAY. SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE GUSTY WINDS, WITH  
NORTHERLY GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE  
DAY FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY VEERING TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT ALL SITES BY  
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
FERGUSON  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2020/  
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT  
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AT MID  
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AT A  
RAPID PACE AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS  
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE UP IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE AT LEAST WITH  
GUSTS CLOSE TO 45 MPH BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO  
FILTER SOUTH BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TONIGHT.  
 
LOW CLOUDS WILL THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE POST DAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY  
AND THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY. CLEAR SKIES AND  
LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES TO FALL  
TO AROUND FREEZING OR COLDER BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
 
UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS LIES AT ROUGHLY A 9 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 10  
IN THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. THAT MIGHT SOUND LIKE A COP-OUT, BUT  
HERE'S THE DEAL WITH THIS FORECAST. THE ATMOSPHERE WORKS LIKE A  
RIVER. THE JET STREAM IS THE "CURRENT" OF THE RIVER AND AS EDDIES  
FORM IN THE JET STREAM THEY GENERALLY MOVE ALONG WITH THE  
CURRENT. WELL, NEXT WEEK IT'S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT  
ONE OF THESE EDDIES (IN THIS CASE A STRONG UPPER LOW) WILL GET  
CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN CURRENT AND SET ADRIFT A BIT. HOW FAST AND  
WHERE THIS LOW TRACKS ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. IF YOU  
THROW A STICK INTO A RIVER, YOU GENERALLY KNOW WHERE IT'S GOING TO  
GO. IN THIS CASE, IT'S A BIT MORE LIKE THROWING A STICK INTO A  
STAGNANT POND AND WAITING TO SEE WHERE IT SLOWLY DRIFTS. IN SPITE  
OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW, THERE ARE  
TWO THINGS WE KNOW FOR SURE. ONE, THERE WILL BE VERY COLD AIR IN  
PLACE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND TWO, THERE WILL BE CLOUDS NEXT WEEK.  
THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING RAIN, SNOW, SLEET, OR  
FREEZING RAIN (AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF ALL OF IT).  
 
SATURDAY...  
BEFORE WE DRIFT INTO MORE DETAIL ABOUT NEXT WEEK'S  
SYSTEM, THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE BENIGN BY  
COMPARISON. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO  
CLIMB TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
SUNDAY...  
SUNDAY'S HIGH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS... QUITE  
POSSIBLY AT MIDNIGHT FOR SOME. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH,  
CLEARING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING AT THE LATEST, THOUGH  
IT WILL MORE LIKELY BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK.  
BY LATE AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST WITH  
20-30 MPH WINDS COMMON.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...  
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WILL BE APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY  
CROSSING OUR AREA IN SOME FASHION NEXT WEEK. EVERY FORECAST MODEL  
HAS IT'S OWN UNIQUE TAKE. FOR THIS FORECAST, WILL LEAN TOWARD THE  
ECMWF AS IT HAS THE SLOWEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION, WHICH  
SEEMS TO WIN OUT 7 TIMES OUT OF 10 AROUND HERE. AS OF THIS  
WRITING, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE ARE TWO MAIN WINDOWS FOR  
PRECIP. THE FIRST IS A PERIOD OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT WINTRY  
PRECIP ON MON/MON NIGHT WITH A LEAD SHRTWV/JET STREAK. THE SECOND,  
LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND WED/WED NIGHT, LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO BE A  
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH THE MAIN CROSSING OF THE UPPER LOW.  
 
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR  
SLEET MON OR MON NIGHT, AND THIS IS THE PERIOD THAT WILL BE WATCHED  
MOST CLOSELY. A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW EVENT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY  
AS OF THIS WRITING.  
 
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW NORMAL WITH  
RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS AND A RECORD COLD  
HIGH POSSIBLE MONDAY.  
 
SIMPSON  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID EVENING CHANGING THE WINDS AROUND TO  
THE NORTH. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE  
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON RFTI VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 4  
TO 6 RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...MOORE...  
OCHILTREE...SHERMAN.  
 
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER.  
 

 
 

 
 
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