005
FXUS64 KAMA 302300
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
- LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PANHANDLES.
- FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING FOR
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THE LATEST H500 RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND STEADILY
MOVING EAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
MUCH OF TEXAS, WITH ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS REACHING THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. FOR TODAY, MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS HIGHER LEADING
TO AT LEAST SCATTERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THE EASTERLY
SURFACE WIND IS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TRAVERSE OVER THE PANHANDLES. LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE WAVES WILL
LIKELY BE THE ONLY CHANCES THE PANHANDLES HAVE AT GETTING RAINFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CWA. RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DECLINE AND THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IS
UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH. MOST LOCATIONS THAT SEE RAIN WILL LIKELY SEE
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL DECREASE BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS NEGATIVE H700 THETA-E MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL TO START THE NEW MONTH
OF MAY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLEARING SKIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP CONSIDERABLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S. IN FACT, FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL AID IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE 70S AND 80S, WITH WIDESPREAD 80S
FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ARISE DUE TO IT BEING BREEZY AND WARM.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS LEADING TO A COOL DOWN FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE LOW
CLOUDS SHOW UP, ALONG WITH PROSPECTS OF RAIN. THIS TAF PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MESSY ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. KDHT HAS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, KAMA AND
KGUY MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AS WELL PRIMARILY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND THE EXTENT OF
LOWERED CIGS AND VIS DUE TO THIS SYSTEM COMING OVER THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT. THUNDER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE HERE
AND THERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO MAYBE 15 KTS THROUGH 12Z BEFORE THEY FALL OFF AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...03
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