476  
FXUS64 KOUN 161906  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
206 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021  
 
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL SATURATION  
WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING  
HOURS. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER  
THAN NORMAL THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER  
CLEARING THIS EVENING, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS IN  
NORTHWEST OK TO REACH NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW MORNING.  
WITH THAT BEING SAID, FROST DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE LIKELY AS WINDS  
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 KTS AND CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE LINGERING.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S, WHICH  
WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
BUNKER  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA  
UNTIL MONDAY EARLY MORNING, WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM THE  
AREA UP INTO THE LOWER 70S. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE  
INTO THE AREA LATE ON MONDAY AND WILL BRING WITH IT THE NEXT COLD  
FRONT INTO THE AREA. PARTS OF NORTHWEST OK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES  
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS  
EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS OF NOW,  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING THAT THE THERE WILL BE SOME  
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN, NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTH-  
CENTRAL OK EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
LIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE  
AND/OR FROST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AS LOWS WILL BE  
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER  
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE  
WARRANTED WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.  
 
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY MORNING AS A  
MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC  
ASCENT, COUPLED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY, COULD POSE SOME  
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO TREND UPWARDS IN THE MIDDLE  
OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHERE MOST OF THE AREA  
COULD SEE TEMPERATURE NEAR NORMAL.  
 
BUNKER  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021  
 
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST  
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. OUR TAFS ARE ON THE PESSIMISTIC  
SIDE, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHWEST TAF SITES, INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY  
TOMORROW WITH REGARDS TO CEILINGS. IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT AT  
LEAST PERIODIC BREAKS AND VFR PERIODS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE  
TRENDS IN SHORT TERM MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND AMEND AS  
NECESSARY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 38 57 38 64 / 0 0 0 0  
HOBART OK 36 58 35 64 / 0 0 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 40 60 38 66 / 10 0 0 0  
GAGE OK 32 56 31 64 / 0 0 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 38 57 36 63 / 20 0 0 0  
DURANT OK 46 62 42 67 / 10 0 0 0  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...13  
LONG TERM....13  
AVIATION...12  
 
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