969
FXUS64 KOUN 260348
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1044 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GUSTY WIND AND
SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN TX THIS AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS
EASTERN OK TONIGHT. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE AROUND THIS LOW. THIS ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP AS FAR
NORTH AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. WITH
INSTABILITY AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK SHEAR,
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG BUT PULSE IN NATURE. SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.
DESPITE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THAT
WILL LEAD TO A WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
TODAY CONTINUING TO ADVECT 60S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD. WITH THESE
DEWPOINTS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL AS LOW AS THE 60S
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WE MOVE INTO A WET PATTERN. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY THEN SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS LOW MOVING NE THEN NNE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING THE
INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS THE FA BUT BEGINNING IN SW PORTIONS OF
THE FA BEFORE SPREADING NORTH AND EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW
A LINE OF STORMS/MCS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES/MOVES INTO THE REGION. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE FA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TX LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OK.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN EXPECTED IN THE AREA, TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AND COOLER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE, THERE MAY BE BRIEF RIDGING THAT COULD
BRING A POTENTIAL DECREASE/LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA WILL BECOME A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT
EJECTS NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING IN BEHIND THE LOW OVER BAJA CALI THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING
A RETURN TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MOISTURE WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. THUS, SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MAY
ONCE AGAIN RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDDAY
MORNING BUT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED, WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS TO POP-UP JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SO PROB30 WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AT
KCSM/KLAW/KSPS WHERE ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 64 83 64 / 10 0 30 60
HOBART OK 87 62 82 61 / 0 10 60 100
WICHITA FALLS TX 86 63 83 63 / 20 10 70 90
GAGE OK 88 60 82 58 / 0 0 40 70
PONCA CITY OK 85 62 84 63 / 0 0 10 20
DURANT OK 85 66 84 67 / 20 10 30 60
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...08
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