190
FXUS64 KOUN 251148
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
648 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020
BRIEF FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH FAIRLY RAPID
RECOVERY EXPECTED. VEERED WINDS WEST OF A DRYLINE WILL YIELD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S, WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED UP AROUND THE FREEDOM, BUFFALO, LAVERNE, AND
GAGE AREAS. A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. A MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED GOING INTO ANOTHER HOT SATURDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEK. INITIAL AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL ENTER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW A STRONG (PACIFIC) FRONT TO SURGE
OVER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, LAYER OF WARM AIR NEAR 700MB SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION. DURING THE EVENING HOURS, LIFT/COOLING FROM THE
MENTIONED TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT NEAR THE FRONTAL
SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS (MORE
NUMEROUS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA). SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SEVERE STORM RISK WITH
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN. EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE
POST FRONTAL, CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER
STORM SEGMENTS AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION MOMENTUM
TRANSFER. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE STORM CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT, WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE WINDIER/GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY WELL INTO MONDAY WITH
DIURNAL MIXING INTO FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO DRIER AIR AND SURFACE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING, CHILLY
MORNING EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH
WIDESPREAD 40S EXPECTED.
WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF LARGE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH, STRONG
JET SEGMENT PROGD TO DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES,
ALLOWING MORE OF A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS AIRMASS WOULD BE COLDER AND
DRIER THAN THE ONE WE ARE EXPECTING LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS STRONGER COLD FRONT, SO WILL NOT GET TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME
FRAME, BUT CURRENT MODEL BLENDED FORECAST MAY BE MUCH TOO WARM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020
GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTHEAST OF MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE FOG COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KSPS THIS
MORNING, SO OPTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND BECOME
GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF VERTICAL MIXING.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 86 63 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 91 63 93 66 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 62 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 99 65 98 63 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 89 63 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 82 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10
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