833
FXUS64 KOUN 151050
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
550 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT DAY OF MID TO UPPER
80S BY THE AFTERNOON. LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LEAD TO
A DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, SHOULD
BE A NICE DAY IF HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OUT WEST HELPS TO PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE
EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM.
THE IMPLICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAVE ON OUR AREA WILL BE MORE
POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES, BUT ALSO A NON ZERO CHANCE AT
SEVERE WEATHER. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST SATURDAY AS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE ROCKIES PROMOTES
WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY, SO WE WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY WITH 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE DURING THE UPCOMING PERIOD
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SOUTHEAST BREEZE.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 59 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 86 57 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 86 57 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 82 57 81 60 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 86 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 86 58 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09
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