756
FXUS64 KOUN 011142
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
- SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. POTENTIAL HAZARDS:
-- LARGE HAIL (> 2")
-- DAMAGING WINDS (70-75 MPH)
-- TORNADOES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
- STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
AS OF 3AM, DECAYING CONVECTION IS EXITING OUR NORTH TX COUNTIES
AND THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM HOLLIS-YUKON-
BLACKWELL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40'S OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND LOW-70'S OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE UPPER TROUGH TO
BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY CROSSING
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH A 65KT JET MAX (H500) EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
MID/HIGH-CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. BY MID-AFTERNOON, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE H500 JET MAX REACHES
THE PANHANDLES. THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS BEHIND IT. ONE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE LOW
(CURRENTLY OVER WEST TX) AND FRONT WILL RETREAT. A FEW OF THE CAMS
SUGGEST THE FRONT MAY NOT BUDGE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTERNOON AND HAVE
THE LOW PROG'D IN THE VICINITY OF CHILDRESS WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS STILLWATER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 70'S OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND 80'S SOUTH OF THE FRONT - WITH
THE HOTTEST TEMPS (LOW 90'S) CONCENTRATED OVER WESTERN NORTH TX.
CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RAISE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INTO
AT LEAST THE MID-60'S, ALTHOUGH THE HRRR/RAP SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
NEAR 70 DEG POSSIBLE. THE DRYLINE IS PROG'D TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM
THE SURFACE LOW AND BE ON THE CUSP OF ENTERING OUR CWA WHEN CI
BEGINS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TWO FOCAL AREAS FOR INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT:
1) ALONG THE QUASI-WARM FRONT, AND 2) EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING DRYLINE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE QUASI-
WARM FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOWER HERE. BETTER
CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT EXTEND
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE, I.E., WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS. INITIAL STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
SUPERCELLS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT HAIL (> 2 INCHES),
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH, AND A FEW TORNADOES (SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE). GUIDANCE HAS WAVERED SOMEWHAT ON THE
STORM MODE AS THESE STORMS ADVANCE TOWARDS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THERE
IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS GROWING UPSCALE BEFORE REACHING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR (WITH QLCS TORNADOES POSSIBLE), BUT WE STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SUPERCELLS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STRONGEST CORES
ARE PROG'D TO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
SOMETHING TO WATCH IS SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE MAIN LINE
AS THE DRYLINE REMAINS SITUATED OUT WEST. WOULDN'T EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO BE AS STRONG, BUT WILL MONITOR.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY AS IT
EXITS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON. A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH THEN EXITS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT INTO OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE ALONG THE FRONT AND PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MID-DAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL BY SATURDAY, WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS (FROM WED
AND FRIDAY NIGHT'S EVENTS) FORECAST TO BE 1.5+ INCHES EAST OF A
LINE FROM VERNON TO HOBART TO FAIRVIEW. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-44.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30'S TO MID 40'S. NO RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE
70'S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY. SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING AND ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 70+ MPH, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 62 83 64 / 40 100 0 0
HOBART OK 86 58 85 62 / 60 70 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 63 88 64 / 30 90 0 0
GAGE OK 77 50 84 58 / 50 60 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 80 60 80 62 / 60 100 0 0
DURANT OK 86 65 83 65 / 20 100 30 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01
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