873
FXUS64 KOUN 301725
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY & MONDAY.
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY & PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, INCLUDING SOME HOPE FOR MEANINGFUL RAINS IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA!
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER MESSAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE A RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS TWO NOTABLE
FEATURES: 1) A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND 2)
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER WEST TEXAS. REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MIDLEVEL CONVECTION ADVANCING FROM WEST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH THE LATTER. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS
ACCOMPANIES A 50 KT JET THAT IS SHOWN TO ATTENUATE IN THE COMING
HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA, AND HENCE CAMS VARY ON
EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, NWP TRENDS SEEM TO
INCREASINGLY SUPPORT THE IDEA OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION
FAVORING WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE AND/OR MOVE IN PROXIMITY TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. STRONG INSTABILITY (SBCAPE 4000 J/KG) AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (30 KT) EXISTS FOR MODESTLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT
WILL PRESENT A RISK OF LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER RISKS TODAY WILL
BE FROM THE 100TH MERIDIAN TO HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR... WITH PERHAPS
MORE EASTWARD EXTENT TO NEAR I35 IN NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MODELS
STRUGGLE TO PROGRESS ROBUST CONVECTION EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, SO CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS IN THE OKC METRO AREA IS
LESS...AS CONVECTION APPEARS TO WANE BY LATE EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY. AS SUCH... SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL AID
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 90+ DEG TEMPERATURES BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH A CORRIDOR OF 100 DEG TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NORTHWARD OVER WEST-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW EITHER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
AND/OR FRONTAL FEATURES IN PROXIMITY TO THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
STATELINE AND THIS COULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION, ESPECIALLY
LATE MONDAY. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP (30-40% PROBABILITY), HIGH LCLS
AND MODEST SHEAR WOULD REGULATE HAZARDS TO HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A 590 DAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. A NOTABLE UPPER AIR LOW/TROUGH IS DEPICTED
EVOLVING OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. BY MIDWEEK. AFTER A HOT
START TO THE WEEK HERE IN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS, THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT
THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION MAY SUPPORT THE BACK SIDE/WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF SURFACE RIDGING SETTLING INTO THE REGION WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO RESIDE OVER OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO BROAD AND
MODEST (~15-20 KT AT 500 MB) CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW AND FALLING
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WHICH MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF CONVECTION,
PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGIME ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
OUR WEST, AND IN VICINITY OF A GRADUALLY DECAYING FRONTAL FEATURE.
WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIMITED, BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME POSSIBLE AS MODELS
SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH WOULD PUSH
DAILY CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMA. AS SUCH, MEAN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AROUND
1 INCH TOTAL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA TUE-FRI, WITH 90TH PERCENTILE SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING AT LEAST
LOW PROBABILITIES OF LOCALIZED TOTALS APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES BY
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE (20-30%) OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON,
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON BREEZINESS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 97 73 97 / 20 0 0 10
HOBART OK 69 99 72 99 / 20 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 97 72 97 / 30 0 0 0
GAGE OK 65 97 69 97 / 20 0 0 20
PONCA CITY OK 69 93 70 93 / 20 0 0 20
DURANT OK 75 93 75 94 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...14
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