596
FXUS64 KOUN 221050
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
550 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 548 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
NORTH TEXAS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS FAR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- RAINY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A SHORTWAVE WILL DIG NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY WITH
A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND A COLD FRONT DRAPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE. A
DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO DRIVE
STORMS EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY, MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR AROUND 20-30
KNOTS, TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
MORNING CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
THE EVENING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THERE ISN'T MUCH OF A LOW-
LEVEL JET PRESENT, BUT THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
STORMS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE, THE
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND BRING
ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME
STORMS MAY REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT SOME LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY
MORNING.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY
ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. A LACK OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL JET, THE CHANCE
FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE AND MAINTAIN AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD INTO
OKLAHOMA SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER, IF A STORMS CAN
SUSTAIN INTO OKLAHOMA, IT COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WINDS
AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
MOSTLY BEING KEPT EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. THUS, DAILY SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A
LOW-TO-MEDIUM CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40-70%) ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND DECREASING
CHANCES (<40%) WESTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLOAT AROUND NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN
THE 70S TO 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY, WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 61 78 61 / 10 90 50 50
HOBART OK 82 59 80 59 / 10 90 60 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 84 61 82 61 / 10 80 70 60
GAGE OK 79 54 75 54 / 40 80 30 40
PONCA CITY OK 78 60 77 59 / 20 60 50 40
DURANT OK 82 65 81 65 / 20 70 70 60
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...13
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