503
FXUS64 KOUN 291006
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
506 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 505 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST DAYS THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THE 596 DAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
MOVE AND EXPAND EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. WITH
THE RIDGE OVERHEAD, TODAY MARKS THE RETURN TO HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM ~100 TO 105 DEG F ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST.
STRENGTHENING LEE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THESE WINDS,
COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 20%
FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES, WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND VERY DRY FUELS, THE TOTAL FIRE
ENVIRONMENT (WEATHER + FUELS) WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO INITIAL
ATTACK FIRES TO LOW-END LARGE FIRES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THEREFORE, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) WAS ISSUED FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING
THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM AROUND 100 TO 105
DEG F WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. THESE BREEZY
WINDS, COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS--ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST, WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOWER (~20% OR LOWER). FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS
(RFDS) WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON BOTH DAYS.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS,
HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED. HOWEVER, DEW POINTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN MIXING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON (LIKELY DUE TO THE
ONGOING DROUGHT AND THE MORE LIMITED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION). IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, IT WOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES CLOSE TO THE AIR
TEMPERATURES.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH NO
EVIDENCE OF ANY IMPACTFUL SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NWP.
THE PROBABILISTIC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) FORECAST HAS
VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH EVEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE-
NORMAL. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S DEG F WILL PERSIST ALL
OF NEXT WEEK. BOTTOM LINE--EXPECT A HEATWAVE NEXT WEEK.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BLOCKING ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT WOULD BRING RAINFALL ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THEREFORE, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH VERY DRY FUELS. THE TOTAL
FIRE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO INITIAL ATTACK
FIRES TO LOW-END LARGE FIRES.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CEILINGS WITH HIGH CLOUDS. S TO SE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S
AND SSW BECOMING BREEZY TODAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE THIS
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 101 76 101 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 103 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 103 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 102 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 100 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 102 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page