174
FXUS64 KOUN 230336
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
WATCHING SOME CIRRUS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST. MEANWHILE, WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD,
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER
70S / LOWER 80S). WINDS ARE 5 TO 15 MPH FROM THE SOUTH / SOUTHEAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON FRIDAY, YIELDING
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA (15 TO 20 MPH).
OTHERWISE, WARM (UPPER 70S / LOWER 80S), DRY, AND PARTLY CLOUD
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
APPROACHES.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION BEFORE OPENING UP INTO A
WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ALSO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME STORMS SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS
ABUNDANT AS THE LAST COUPLE OF RAIN EVENTS THAT THE AREA HAS HAD
WHICH MEANS LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVERALL COMPARED TO
THOSE EVENTS. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING 90TH PERCENTILE (REASONABLE
WORST CASE SCENARIO) RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA. HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER (10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED) DURING
THE DAYTIME.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 58 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 80 58 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 82 58 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 82 57 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 80 56 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 83 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...04
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