679
FXUS64 KOUN 021903
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
203 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 203 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT LIKELY.
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
COMPLEX FORECAST THIS EVENING AS TO WHERE PRECIPITATION (IF ANY)
IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SURFACE
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY FOR OUR AREA IS
NEAR THE RED RIVER WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA, BUT THERE ARE ALSO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES JUST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE OKC METRO AND
ANOTHER ONE PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FROM THE EARLIER
CONVECTION IN KANSAS. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING, BUT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE
SOUTH WITH DECREASING CIN, AND THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
HELP FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. CUMULUS HAS
BEEN GROWING IN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHERE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
FORCING OR UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING, WE DON'T REALLY EXPECT
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BECOME TOO WIDESPREAD, BUT HAVE INCLUDED AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER A BROADER AREA THAN
THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. THERE IS 1400-1500 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT
CAPE CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AND
2500-3000 J/KG OF MIXED-LAYER CAPE, SO ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEW MEXICO HIGH PLAINS
MAY MOVE TOWARD THE THE MERIDIAN TOWARD SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW HANGING AROUND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA/GULF OF CALIFORNIA AREA WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ALLOWING SOME ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS, THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MID-WEEK, BUT SPECIFIC TIMING WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN-POINT IN THE WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN OUR EARLY-JUNE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
AFTER TEMPORARILY RETREATING WESTWARD, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OVER LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS INCHES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BRINGING A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
A LOW (BUT NON-ZERO) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
LIGHT WINDS WILL HAVE SOME VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION AS SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 87 67 86 / 10 20 10 20
HOBART OK 69 90 66 88 / 20 20 20 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 90 67 88 / 10 20 20 40
GAGE OK 68 89 64 86 / 30 40 60 30
PONCA CITY OK 69 85 65 86 / 10 10 0 20
DURANT OK 72 87 70 85 / 20 10 0 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14
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