113
FXUS64 KOUN 031841
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
141 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 137 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
- DAILY RAIN/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- STORMS WILL BRING A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS DEVELOPING INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DUE TO MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT. AN EXTENSIVE
SHIELD OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SLOWING
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT AS CLOUDS BEGINS TO BREAK
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 80S AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, OUT WEST
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING NICELY INTO THE 80S. EXPECT HIGHS
SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY.
AN MCV HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
EXPECTED NEAR THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE ALONG A
WEAK TROUGH IN WEST TEXAS. STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE 100TH
MERIDIAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS WHEN STORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. LCLS
WILL BE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO QUICK ACCELERATIONS DOWNWARD. MODEST MLCAPE WILL
GIVE WAY TO ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS, BUT WEAK BULK SHEAR WILL LEAD TO SHORT-LIVED, PULSE-LIKE
STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD BECOME THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
PWATS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES, WHICH IS NEAR THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR CLIMATOLOGY. THUS, SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES. ADDITIONALLY, SLOW
STORM SPEEDS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL AND FLOODING
CONCERNS OVER A SMALL FOOTPRINT. ANY TRAINING STORMS OVER THE SAME
AREA COULD ALSO POSE A RISK FOR FLOODING. THEREFORE, LOCALIZED
FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY AND/OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
THURSDAY COULD BE ANOTHER RINSE AND REPEAT, SIMILAR TO TODAY.
ISENTROPIC SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BRING IN LOW TO MID CLOUD COVER THAT LIMITS DAYTIME
HEATING AND HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 80S (SIMILAR TO
TODAY). OTHERWISE, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HELPING TO DRIVE STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
BE SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED
FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN FRIDAY WITH
MOISTURE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN THE GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO TEXAS, IN
ALIGNMENT WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS FOR LIFT WITH THE INCOMING
SYSTEM. THERE ALSO IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE MID-LEVEL FRONT ACROSS KANSAS AND PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY OCCUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL, BUT THE THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY LIFT EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, MAINTAINING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
PERIODIC STORM CHANCES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST THE WAVE WILL THEN MOVE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY, SHEARING
OUT AS IT DOES SO AS IT BECOMES ENVELOPED BY A LARGER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US. UPPER FLOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AND
BECOME MORE NEBULOUS OVER THE AREA, BUT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
WARE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
A LOW CEILING FROM A STRATUS DECK COULD REDUCE TWO OF OUR
TERMINALS KSWO & KPNC IN NORTHCENTRAL OK TO AN MVFR CATEGORY
THROUGH 21Z. OTHERWISE OUR REMAINING TERMINALS SHOULD STAY IN A
VFR CATEGORY THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z ACROSS OUR REMAINING TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE ON THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS WESTERN OK AND ADJACENT
NORTHERN TX AS PROB30S ARE INITIALLY IN PLACE THERE FROM 21-23Z
INCREASING TO TEMPO GROUPS FROM 23Z THROUGH 04Z AS THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS KCSM & KWWR. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY HIGH-
BASED STORMS THESE TERMINALS COULD LOWER TO AN MVFR CATEGORY DUE
TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN RAIN. WILL EXTEND THE 30% PROBABILITY
FOR -TSRA ACROSS FOUR OF OUR TERMINALS IN CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHCENTRAL OK FROM 21-24Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT &
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 00Z BUT CAN'T RULE OUT GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS
FROM STORM OUTFLOW OR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEING FORMED OUT WEST.
BY 15Z WILL SEE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 KTS
GUSTING TO 20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 87 69 87 / 10 20 10 10
HOBART OK 67 90 68 91 / 50 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 90 69 89 / 10 10 10 30
GAGE OK 65 88 68 91 / 70 20 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 67 86 70 87 / 10 30 20 10
DURANT OK 71 84 71 85 / 10 40 10 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
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