378
FXUS64 KOUN 071907
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
207 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 207 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
- STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE PATTERN ALOFT.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA ALONG AN AXIS FROM WOODWARD TO DUNCAN AND ARDMORE. THE
CAMS (MAINLY THE HI-RES NAM AND THE ARW) ONLY MARGINALLY SHOWED
THIS AREA AND OF COURSE THE NBM HAD NO CLUE, SO HAVE ADDED SOME
LOW POPS ALONG THE AXIS OF THE BEST CUMULUS FIELD INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY DIURNAL, BUT
MESOANALYSIS DOES SHOW HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES (~1500 J/KG)
THAT ANY STRONG, ESTABLISHED CORE COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS.
LATER TONIGHT, A NUMBER OF THE CAMS HAVE SOME SIGNAL OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOWARD SUNRISE, SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE SAW WITH THE ACCAS FIELD THIS MORNING. SO HAVE ADDED AN
AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND PUSH
INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES OF
STORMS WILL BE FARTHER NORTH, THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
WARMER HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS WITH MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, AND THE LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL AXIS SHIFT EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER
PLAINS. WITH THIS VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO COMES LOWER
DEWPOINTS, SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE KEPT SOMEWHAT IN CHECK BY
THE LOWER HUMIDITY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, EVENTUALLY MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER, THE LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL. IN TURN,
HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN IN THE 100-105 F RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE OF NORTH-CENTRAL OK, THOUGH PROB30 WAS ONLY
INCLUDED AT KLAW/KDUA WHERE THE RELATIVE CHANCE IS HIGHEST.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, VEERING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 73 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 100 78 101 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 101 76 101 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 70 95 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 74 97 79 98 / 20 20 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...08
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