830
FXUS64 KOUN 250400
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1055 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS EARLY THIS
WEEK. LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN CONTROL OF OUR PLEASANT WEATHER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN
TEXAS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONLY THE SLOW APPROACH OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANY PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE WEST(MID/UPPER
70S), ELSEWHERE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80 TO
85 DEGREE RANGE ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT (AT
LEAST BY OKLAHOMA STANDARDS) AT 5 TO 15 MPH FROM THE SOUTH. A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.
TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE AS WINDS GO LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, BUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES. BY SUNDAY MORNING MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND A FEW LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WE WILL SEE THE RIDGE RETREAT
EASTWARD EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS A JET STREAK COMES AROUND THE BASE OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THE UPPER
LOW THEN BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, MUCH OF
THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP REMAINS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MODELS DO SHOW A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DOES LIFT NORTH OUT OF
NORTHERN MEXICO AS WE GO THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH WEST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY BRING LOW PROBABILITIES OF ANOTHER LIGHT
ROUND OF RAINFALL TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS OCCURRING, BUT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW SOME LIMITATIONS TO DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES, WITH MAINLY 70S ACROSS THE AREA FOR HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN PART OF THE SHORTWAVE THEN TRANSLATES NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME,
AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT LOW CHANCES
MAY SPREAD A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST TO INCLUDE CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, IF PRECIP DOES OCCUR THAT FAR EAST, AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
IF WE DO SEE THIS SECONDARY WAVE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, IT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY PUSHING THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
THERE IS NOW MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS
AND ECMWF OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK, AND ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS ONLY
SHOWS ROUGHLY A 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING FROM
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THAT YESTERDAY'S 00Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUN SHOWED. SO IT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY THAT WE
WILL BE IN A PATTERN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS
AUTUMN-LIKE AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
AND WESTERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
BROKEN CIRRUS CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS POTENTIALLY
DECREASING TO 5-7KFT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME CAMS SUGGEST VCSH FOR KWWR AND KCSM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MAINTAINED PROB30 FOR SHOWERS AT KWWR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVEN CONTINUED GUIDANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 59 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 79 60 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 61 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 78 56 77 56 / 0 0 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 80 56 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 84 57 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...01
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