669
FXUS64 KOUN 240346
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
LONG WAVE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS TODAY, WITH A
PRONOUNCED LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE DAILY WEATHER PATTERN IN THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR
TO A TYPICAL OKLAHOMA DAY IN APRIL. THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED BRING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FOR US, ONLY SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS RIDING THE RIDGE, LEAVING MOST
OF US WITH DIRTY SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE
A LEE TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM A SURFACE LOW IN MONTANA ALL THE WAY
TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SURFACE TROUGH RELAXES A BIT IN THE SOUTH
PLAINS, KEEPING OUR WINDS SOUTHERLY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT.
WITHOUT THE HIGH CLOUD COVER, OUR TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE MADE A RUN
TO BE EVEN HIGHER THAN WHAT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING.
EVEN WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS, MOST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S, SHOOTING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT, LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S, WITH SOME AREAS
LIMITED TO NEAR 60 IN PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH CLOUD COVER.
FOX
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR TEXAS COUNTIES. THE NORMAL
HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER 70S, SO TEMPERATURES
NEAR 80 DEGREES ARE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT RANGE NUMERICAL MODELING IS IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT IN THE (LACK OF) MOVEMENT
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS AGREE
THAT THE TROUGH WILL MAKE INCREMENTAL EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY, KEEPING
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUITE LOW (< 10%) IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT ALL WE SHOULD SEE IS AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUD COVER, AND SLIGHTLY "LOWER" TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
LATE SUNDAY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CREEP UPWARD IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA, TOPPING OUT
AROUND 40-60% IN AREAS WEST OF US 81 AND NORTH OF I-40. AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY /
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN LOW (30-50%),
BUT VERY SLOWLY CREEP EASTWARD TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
FOX
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHILE THE TROUGH AND RAIN CHANCES MOVE EAST, THIS SHOULD BE A NICE PATTERN.
HOWEVER, ONCE THE TROUGH GETS NEAR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, THE LONG FETCH
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE DISAPPEAR FASTER THAN KIDS BEING TOLD TO
CLEAN UP. MORE SCIENTIFICALLY, THE MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TODAY...FINALLY DRIES UP. WHILE WE MAY STILL SEE
SCATTERED RAINFALL OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY OR TUESDAY, THE CHANCES
DECREASE TO 10-30% AS THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES OVERHEAD. LATEST
ENSEMBLE BLENDS PUT THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 0 AND ABOUT 1/2 INCH. RAINFALL WOULD BE MORE WELCOME, MOST
OF US WON'T SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS.
LATER IN THE WEEK, THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES WIDENS FURTHER. LONG
RANGE FORECASTING IS HARD ENOUGH, BUT CHECK OUT THESE RANGES FOR OKC:
THURSDAY MORNING ENSEMBLE FORECAST GUIDANCE
LOW TEMP: BETWEEN 48 AND 61 F
HIGH TEMP: BETWEEN 66 AND 76 F
POP: BETWEEN 1% AND 46%
PRECIP: BETWEEN 0.00 AND 0.89"
AND THAT IS JUST THURSDAY MORNING. THE SAME WIDE RANGES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE HALLOWEEN WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH IT IS JUST OUT OF
THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST RANGE.
BUT...WHAT IS KNOWN NOW IS THERE IS STRONG (MORE THAN 60% OF
MEMBERS) ARE SHOWING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY, AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES, ALONG WITH
ANOTHER FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL JET. WHILE THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN,
WITH THE EVIDENCE IN THE WIDE RANGE OF ENSEMBLE DATA, IT DOES
APPEAR THAT A PATTERN CHANGE TO A WET PATTERN IS LIKELY BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO EARLY TO MAKE FINAL DECISIONS
BASED ON ALL OF THIS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING.
FOX
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS. FOR THE
MOST PART, LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY, WINDS VEER MORE TO THE
SOUTH WITH MODERATELY GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 58 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 81 59 79 61 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 58 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 80 58 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 80 56 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 83 55 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...01
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