725
FXUS64 KOUN 191753
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- COOL, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
WESTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION/SPEED OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THERE IS A CHANCE A FEW
EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS COULD OCCUR AND THEREFORE A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW, BUT NOT ZERO FOR A
TORNADO TO OCCUR. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY DECREASE WITH FLOODING,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BECOMING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ENDING BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, IF THEY FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND/OR
STALLS, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE UPDRAFTS COULD
DEVELOP IF TEMPERATURES HAVE A CHANCE TO WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE.
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE FOR THIS SLOWER
FRONT SOLUTION.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 20-25 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR ISENTROPIC SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THESE ELEVATED STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES THANKS TO SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET.
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S THROUGH
MID-WEEK WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A SUBTROPICAL JET, WITH PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE BROADER MID-LEVEL
FLOW, WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
CONTINUOUS MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH ALL TAF SITES WITH NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE DAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LINGERING THROUGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ALONG WITH THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER CHANCES.
THUS, THE CURRENT TAF ISSUANCE INCLUDES PROB30S FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
STORMS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT WWR/DUA WHERE CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE
WERE EVEN LOWER. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE WHERE NECESSARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 54 71 58 72 / 50 20 60 90
HOBART OK 53 74 57 75 / 40 20 80 80
WICHITA FALLS TX 57 77 60 77 / 50 20 70 90
GAGE OK 46 70 52 71 / 10 20 80 80
PONCA CITY OK 52 70 56 72 / 40 10 60 80
DURANT OK 64 79 65 77 / 50 40 60 90
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...23
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