764
FXUS64 KOUN 041848
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
148 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 148 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- HOT AND HUMID FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY WHICH WILL CREATE A RISK FOR
HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
- STORMS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT VARIOUS
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING.
STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH KANSAS THIS MORNING HAVE SENT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. STORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP (A) IN CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS,
AND (B) IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE IN AN AREA OF CONFLUENT
SURFACE WINDS. ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ON THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY,
THAT MAY BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. OTHER FIELDS OF CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, AND FROM SEMINOLE
COUNTY DOWN INTO THE ARBUCKLES.
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH
AND EAST, THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE ANY STORMS DEVELOPING DOWN THE
LINE IN KANSAS, ANY STORMS THAT FORM NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY,
AND STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY IS
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS, AND HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES
DEFINITELY SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. WITH THE EVOLUTION
TODAY AND SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND
NEAR AMARILLO, BELIEVE STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFFECTING OKLAHOMA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DO NOT HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN THE CAMS (ESPECIALLY IN PLACEMENT OF STORMS) AS THEY GENERALLY
STRUGGLED WITH THE MORNING KANSAS CONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY, THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING SIGNAL TODAY OF MORE
ORGANIZATION AND MORE PERSISTENCE IN THE STORMS, AND THE SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SO WE AGREE WITH THE SPC UPGRADE TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS AND THE EXPANSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.
SO THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL THAT STORMS WILL BE AFFECTING
INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES IN SOME AREAS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.
OTHERWISE WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND THE
EFFECTS OF THESE ON AFTERNOON FESTIVITIES AND THE POTENTIAL OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS KEPT THINGS
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, SO HAVE CANCELLED THIS
PORTION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE FRONT AND ANY CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFICS IN THE LOCATION OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL SOMEWHAT DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF STORM REDEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY. SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BRING LESS-HOT AIR TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, ALTHOUGH ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE LESS-HOT TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS, ALTHOUGH THIS IS RELATIVE AS HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL LIKELY AGAIN REACH 100 IN THE SOUTH ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN TO OUR WEST WITH HEAT REMAINING
THROUGH THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST FLOW, WHICH COULD LEAD TO DAILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS TYPE OF
SETUP TYPICALLY FAVORS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS
STORMS STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FARTHER SOUTH PAST SUNSET WITH
LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT MOST SITES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK WITH
VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH
WINDS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A
PREVAILING SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS BY SUNDAY MORNING AT MOST
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 94 70 93 / 50 30 20 10
HOBART OK 74 99 69 96 / 20 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 101 72 98 / 10 30 30 10
GAGE OK 68 93 67 95 / 40 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 70 87 69 89 / 80 20 20 0
DURANT OK 77 96 75 94 / 20 30 30 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ013-017>020-
024>032-039>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08
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