769
FXUS64 KOUN 200347
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1044 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2024
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
- HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- HEAT RELIEF IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2024
THE MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING WILL BE STORM POTENTIAL. WE HAVE BEEN
GETTING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN AREA OF CONFLUENT LOW-
LEVEL WINDS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH SOME
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WE'LL LIKELY SEE A
FEW MORE STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS WITH SOME WIND POTENTIAL AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER 1500 J/KG. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE
EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING, IT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AND NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
COOLING, SO HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM NEW MEXICO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2024
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY EVENING AS
WELL, BUT THE PRIMARY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TREND
CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AREA (AT LEAST INITIALLY), AND WILL CONTINUE THIS
TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY IN OUR FORECAST.
RIGHT NOW THERE LOOK TO BE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA, SO HOPEFULLY WE WILL NOT GET HORNSWAGGLED OUT OF THESE
STORMS WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED TIMING OF THE
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT ON SUNDAY WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY AREAS OF RAIN, AND THEN THE FRONT BRINGS
MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PROB30 TSRA WILL BE INCLUDED AT KWWR FOR
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AS TSRA BUILDS CLOSE TO RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE ARE A FEW HIGH RES MODELS THAT DEVELOP
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 12Z, BUT RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY AND WEAK FORCING, WILL ONLY MENTION BKN MID CLOUDS
TO START FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 98 74 95 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 75 100 72 98 / 20 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 101 72 98 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 68 101 71 95 / 10 20 0 20
PONCA CITY OK 71 98 75 98 / 30 10 20 10
DURANT OK 73 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...11
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