811
FXUS64 KOUN 171752
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1151 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS
MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEKEND COULD BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGE: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON
DETAILS: HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS
MORNING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A
STRONG 700MB JET (45-55KTS) IN PLACE, WE'RE STARTING TO SEE WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A SHORT TERM
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDS 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS, GUSTING UP TO 30
TO 35 MPH, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WHERE
WE'LL SEE THE GREATEST CLEARING. WE ARE SEEING A FEW TRANSIENT GUSTS
TO 40 MPH AS WELL.
REGARDING HUMIDITY, REAL TIME VERIFICATION INDICATES DEWPOINTS IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ARE RUNNING 5 TO 8 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE. CONVERSELY,
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IS SHOWING A SLIGHT POSITIVE BIAS. USING A MOS
/ NAM BLEND FOR DEWPOINTS THAT BETTER REFLECTS THESE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS SOLUTION KEEPS MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 20-25%
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS, THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
(LIMITED, IN PART, BY THE COLD TEMPERATURES).
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN CHILLY RANGING FROM THE 30S IN THE NORTH TO
THE 40S IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET, AND
WITH CLEAR SKIES, EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ON SUNDAY AS WINDS RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. A SLIGHTLY OUT OF SYNC DOWNSLOPE SETUP WILL TAKE
SHAPE BY LATE MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MIXING WINDS VEERING
WESTERLY. HAVE NUDGED WINDS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA / WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS UP TOWARD MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE LATE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON
PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE 850MB JET DEPARTS AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.
WITH MOISTURE RECOVERY LAGGING, RH VALUES WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE
15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINTAINING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA,
PERHAPS BECOMING NEAR CRITICAL IN PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S
AND 40S ON MONDAY.
MODELS STILL SHOW SOME SIGNAL (<20% CHANCE) FOR SNOW FLURRIES MONDAY
MORNING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
DAY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE THE TYPICAL TREND OF WARM UP
AND THEN COLD FRONT COOL DOWN EVERY OTHER DAY OR SO. TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE THE WARMING TREND BEFORE A COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY PASSES THROUGH OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF BAJA CALI REGION ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS, WHICH COULD BRING SOME
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO SOUTHERN/EASTERN
TEXAS BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
POST-FRONTAL COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND AGAIN FRIDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
PEEKING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A SLIGHT
PATTERN CHANGE THAT MAY BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY PAST
DAY 7, SO THE TRENDS FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KT GUSTING 25-30 KTS BETWEEN 18-20Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z, THEN VEERING NORTHERLY AT 5-10 KTS WITH
SOME TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT & VARIABLE BY 04Z. SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KTS BY 12Z THE VEERING
SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS BY 16Z AND GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 18 57 25 36 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 16 60 25 40 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 19 61 27 44 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 14 57 21 36 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 13 53 22 33 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 20 57 27 44 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68
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