917
FXUS64 KOUN 170728
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
228 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 227 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
- HEAT WAVE AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING MEDIUM-HIGH RAIN
CHANCES AND LESS HOT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
NEAR-RECORD HEAT AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TODAY, WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...
THE 00Z SEPT 17 UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS 600
DAM RIDGE CENTERED OVER ALABAMA, SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION,
AND A TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
WESTWARD TODAY, AND WHILE SOUTH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER
THAN YESTERDAY, WE WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA, AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHERE A VOLATILE FUEL-DRIVEN ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN
PLACE.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN IS ANTICIPATED TO
KEEP RH VALUES SOMEWHAT BETTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (~35%).
ANOTHER BALMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70'S.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
THE HEAT PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SIMILAR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH, WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING KANSAS ON
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH CHANCES EXPANDING ACROSS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
THE FRONT WILL BATTLE THE HEAT ON SUNDAY AND COULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH
MEDIUM-HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN/STORMS EXPANDING AND SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
ON SUNDAY. AS THE COOLER AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO OKLAHOMA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHARPENS AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. AS A RESULT, STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
AND MAY NOT FULLY EXIT OUR AREA UNTIL LATE MONDAY. THERE IS THE
HOPE THAT MONDAY WILL MARK THE END TO OUR LONG SEASON OF TRIPLE-
DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 80'S AND 90'S, WITH
CONTINUED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
JUST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE SLOWLY BACKING INTO THE EVENING. PATCHY
DIURNAL CUMULUS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FROM WEST-CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 76 98 75 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 75 102 74 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 98 74 99 73 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 98 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 101 74 101 73 / 20 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ032-042-043-046>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...09
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page