426
FXUS64 KOUN 210049
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
649 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
IT'LL BE A QUIET NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE REGION. THE LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING HAS ENDED,
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE EXITING
CLOUD COVER, YOU ARE ABLE TO SEE HOW THE SNOW ACCUMULATION DID AN
IMPRESSIVE JOB OF AVOIDING OUR CWA BOUNDARY EXCEPT FOR
NORTHWESTERN HARPER COUNTY.
ONLY MAJOR CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH OUT OF THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARMING TREND WILL START ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
ZWINK
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE FA. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER CLOSED LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE PATH OF THE LOW IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND
SLOWER IN THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE GFS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ALSO SHOW A
SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE NE NM/SE CO/OK & TX PANHANDLE AREA. THIS
LOW WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH THE GFS TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OK. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM, RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT
WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE UNLIKELY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
DIFFER ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION, IF ANY, WOULD OCCUR IN THE FA. THE
ECMWF IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND GREATER WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
WHAT CLOUDS THERE HAVE BEEN THIS AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY
DISSIPATING, ALTHOUGH A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT KGAG AND NEAR KWWR. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE FORECAST. WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHT, BUT WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 22 47 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 21 48 33 59 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 26 49 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 20 50 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 20 46 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 27 49 33 55 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page