815
FXUS64 KOUN 301013
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
513 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 511 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- EXCESSIVE HEATING WILL RETURN FRIDAY & ESPECIALLY ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES
- SOME RELIEF FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHEN OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN/STORMS CHANCES RETURN.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
CURRENTLY STORMS COMING OFF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO LOW-END SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS THEY DECAY INTO A WEAKER LESS
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS BETWEEN TWO WEATHER PATTERNS WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE & SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND DEEP
AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. A SURFACE LOW LEE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
AREA MAINTAINING WINDY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE SOUTH. OUR LOW-LEVEL
JET MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON YET KEEPING WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HEAT INTO THE UPPER 90S
WITH A NEGLIGIBLE HEAT INDEX. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE MID-LEVELS EJECTED
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MAY COME UP THROUGH
WESTERN TEXAS OVER A SURFACE BOUNDARY (TROUGH/DRYLINE) INITIATING
SEVERE CONVECTION UP TO SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THIS STORM COMPLEX SHOULD BE STAY WELL IN THE SOUTHERN UP
THROUGH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS A FEW OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS COULD
STRAY INTO PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHICH COULD PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
EXPECTING ANY TUESDAY EVENING STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TO BE DECAYING OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY ARE NEAR
REPEATERS OF TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE SOUTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR LATE THURSDAY WITH ONLY THE
ECMWF AS THE STORMY SOLUTION. FOR NOW OUR WESTERN (AS WELL AS OUR
ENTIRE) CWA REMAIN POP-FREE FOR BOTH DAYS. SOME OF OUR OKLAHOMA
COUNTIES WILL COME VERY CLOSE TO TYING OR EVEN BREAKING THEIR
WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE DAILY RECORD. NOT EXPECTING TO BE NEAR
BREAKING ANY TEMPERATURE RECORDS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS OUR
TEXAS COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
OUR WEATHER PATTERN DOES START TO CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGHING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE U.S. SOUTHWEST WITH RIDGING
BUILDING AND EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ON FRIDAY
WILL START TWO DAYS OF EXCESSIVE HEATING GOING INTO INDEPENDENCE
DAY (SATURDAY). AS A RESULT WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE TO
TRIPLE DIGITS WITH HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD PROMPT OUR NEXT HEAT ADVISORY. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT COULD SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTERACTING WITH WEAK TROUGHING IN THE RIDGING.
THIS MAY INITIATE STORM ACTIVITY IN KANSAS GOING INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA SATURDAY EVENING AND OUR ENTIRE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL RAIN/STORMS
SUNDAY & MONDAY SHOULD BRING SOME TEMPERATURE RELIEF FROM THE
2-DAY EXCESSIVE HEATING TREND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BELOW TRIPLE
DIGITS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
LLWS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NEAR KWWR WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 98 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 98 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 97 75 95 76 / 10 30 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 94 77 94 77 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 95 78 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...01
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