872
FXUS64 KOUN 241135
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 133 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX TODAY INTO FRIDAY, EXPANDING EAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT NOT AS HOT AS RECENT WEEKS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS DECREASED
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY NOW BACK
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES INTO NM. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS TX INTO EASTERN OK. DAYTIME HEATING IS
FORECAST TO HELP SPARK REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND PWATS CLIMB HIGHER (1.75-2.0"), THE
STRONGER STORM CORES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL,
WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR THIS ACROSS NORTHWEST OK WHERE WPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY TODAY GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR
PROFILES, BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING MAINTAINED, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN OK.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE BULK
OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR ALL BUT NORTHWEST
OK WHERE GREATER CLOUDS/RAIN COVERAGE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
THIS AFTERNOON.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
TROUGHING TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP
BRING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FURTHER EAST ACROSS MORE OF THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER
AND BEGIN TO BRING SOME DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE
TROUGH ALSO BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
WITH TIME, WITH CHANCES CAPPED AT 50-60% ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND
LESS THAN THAT FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING, VEERED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BRING DOWNSLOPE-WARMED MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION,
HELPING KEEP HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH
CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE
AREA AND THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST. NO REAL AIRMASS
CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS CONTINUING TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONGER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND HEAD OUR
DIRECTION BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE AREA. HOW MUCH RAIN WE SEE AND THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE TROUGH REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, WITH THE POTENTIAL
INJECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC LIKELY
PLAYING A KEY ROLE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IF EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT
WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OUR AREA HAS SEEN IN MANY WEEKS.
THAT SAID, CURRENT NBM PERCENTILES FOR OKC RAIN TOTALS SHOW WIDE
VARIABILITY, RANGING FROM ONLY 0.05" AT THE 25TH PERCENTILE TO
OVER 2 INCHES AT THE 75TH PERCENTILE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, UNCERTAINTY
IS HIGH. AT LEAST A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS ALSO IN THE CARDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
WARE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AFFECTING KCSM AND KWWR. MVFR CEILINGS WITH
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT
KWWR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 70 89 70 / 0 10 30 40
HOBART OK 91 69 88 68 / 40 40 50 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 70 94 69 / 20 10 20 30
GAGE OK 84 65 80 63 / 60 80 60 70
PONCA CITY OK 87 68 83 67 / 10 10 50 40
DURANT OK 94 64 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26
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