424
FXUS64 KOUN 260553
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1253 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, WITH HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS, GUSTS TO 70 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- HOTTER AND DRIER INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE WEEK BEYOND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
A POSITIVELY-TILTED STATIONARY FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY ALONG WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
RECENT CONVECTION, ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PROG'D TO BE NEAR
CHILDRESS BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG INSTABILITY (HIGHEST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY) AND ERODING MLCIN
WILL LEAD TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES.
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL, WESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS.
MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE TO AROUND QUARTER-
SIZED. HIGHER DOWNDRAFT CAPE (UP TO 1500 J/KG OR SO) ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL LEAD TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS PAST WEEK,
HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT WHICH COULD RESULT IN
EFFICIENT RAINFALL, AS WELL. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
LIMITED MAINLY TO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM A LINE NEAR AND WEST
OF BLACKWELL TO PERRY GIVEN 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF NEAR 7.5 INCHES
AT THE BLACKWELL MESONET SITE.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT ANOTHER WAVE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER CHIHUAHUA SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS AND REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH DESCENDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WILL SEE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE AS UPPER
FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWESTERLY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT ARE NONEXISTENT BY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, SUMMERTIME
HEAT IS EXPECTED.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90'S TO LOW 100'S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH WARMER VALUES EXPECTED
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO MID-WEEK. LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
COULD LINGER ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH OTHER STORMS POSSIBLY IMPACTING NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, LIGHTER ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME CHANCE TO
SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS FRIDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST, IMPACTING
WWR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 75 93 77 / 20 50 10 10
HOBART OK 94 74 96 76 / 0 50 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 76 97 77 / 10 10 10 10
GAGE OK 94 67 90 71 / 50 80 0 30
PONCA CITY OK 81 70 88 73 / 80 60 10 20
DURANT OK 92 77 92 78 / 0 0 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ004>013-019-020-026.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...30
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