459
FXUS64 KOUN 101828
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
128 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- RAINY/STORMY DAY AND NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION; SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY WITH
REBOUNDING HEAT BY THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY, AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. A MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LARGE
SCALE SCENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE LIKELY TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
NOT GET OUT OF THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AFTERNOON, STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE PATH OF THE MID-
LEVEL PERTURBATION, THE BEST CHANCE (30-50%) FOR ANY LOCATION TO
SEE OVER A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO WASH
OUT/MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST FRIDAY, WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, BUT
GENERALLY SPEAKING, FRIDAY SHOULD MOSTLY BE DRY. WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO JUMP BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING HIGHS POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S.
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS INTO NORTHEASTERN
OK, POTENTIALLY CLIPPING PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA, HOWEVER, STRONG
WINDS MAY STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR
AREA. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH
INCREASING MID- LEVEL HEIGHTS EXPECTED, THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS OUTCOME.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
WE LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES. DAILY HIGHS LOOK
TO CONTINUE RUNNING IN THE MID-90S TO LOW-100S, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
EVEN WARMER HEAT INDICES.
THE NEXT CURVEBALL IN THE FORECAST ARRIVES ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. THERE IS INCREASINGLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A NOTABLE FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME. IF THIS OCCURS, AND REACHES OUR AREA, "LESS HOT" CONDITIONS
WOULD MATERIALIZE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS OF THIS
MORNING, GRAND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS <90 DEG F ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
ALTHOUGH TERMINALS CURRENTLY IN A VFR CATEGORY, SHOWER &
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD REDUCE THEM FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
TO IFR MOSTLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z PROBABILITIES FOR TSRA AS SOME OF OUR
TERMINALS DECREASE TO 30% AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP
THEM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AT TERMINALS IN SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE OVERTAKEN
THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS SOME GUSTY NEAR THE
STORM ACTIVITY. BY 12Z-17Z SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 93 73 97 / 30 10 10 40
HOBART OK 69 99 74 102 / 30 20 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 100 75 103 / 50 20 0 10
GAGE OK 64 96 71 100 / 20 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 65 90 69 93 / 10 10 30 60
DURANT OK 73 96 74 100 / 50 40 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...68
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