864
FXUS64 KOUN 101847
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
147 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 147 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT AND AT LEAST A MODERATE HEAT RISK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES AND/OR HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY
AND LOWER WIND SPEEDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE ELEVATED
CATEGORY AS OPPOSED TO NEAR-CRITICAL.
A DECENT CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA,
AND THE FV3 AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ARW VERSIONS OF THE WRF DO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED 10% POPS WITH
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE WICHITA FALLS AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
STOP ME IF YOU'VE HEARD THIS BEFORE, BUT IT'S GOING TO BE HOT
AGAIN TUESDAY. AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT WE MAY KEEP SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WHICH WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER
TOMORROW. AND STILL NO ORGANIZED POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION...
ALTHOUGH WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT VERY SMALL CHANCES (LESS
THAN 20%) OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
HOPE CONTINUES TO DWINDLE FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS TREND TOWARD A
STRONGER RIDGE KEEPING US MOSTLY HOT AND DRY. WE STILL HAVE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND, BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL HELP LIMIT FIRE CONCERNS, WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME KEEPING THOSE HEAT INDICES HIGH.
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING, AND BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TOMORROW MORNING TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST, AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 77 103 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 103 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 74 104 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 103 79 102 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 77 100 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...13
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