572
FXUS64 KOUN 031845
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH INCREASING CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY RISING TODAY TOWARDS THE 90S TO TRIPLE
DIGITS. DRIER DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE,
ALONG WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS THE UPPER
TEENS TO 20S. THESE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY GIVE WAY TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE CHANCES ARE VERY LOW FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO RETURN TUESDAY. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES WITH DRY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SIMILAR TO TODAY, LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL
MIX EASTWARD WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO 20S. DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED FROM THE NBM TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TREND IN DRIER AIR MIXING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND THEREFORE NO HEADLINE WAS ISSUED FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AND A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER DRY AIR MIXING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW FOR THE ACTIVITY TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOW CHANCE (10%) POPS WERE ADDED TO
ACCOMMODATE ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THAT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. CLOUD BASES WILL BE VERY HIGH BASED AND THE MAIN THREATS
WOULD BE GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS, ESPECIALLY WITH COLLAPSING UPDRAFTS.
ADDITIONALLY, CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING COULD POSE A RISK FOR FIRE
STARTS GIVEN LOW END ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DUE TO
THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED NEAR THE KS/OK STATE LINE WITH
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE DRY AIR MIXING MAY NOT
BE AS STRONG WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR A HEAT ADVISORY BEING NEEDED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONCE AGAIN, VERY HIGH CLOUD BASES WITH A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY VIRGA AND/OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND DRY DOWNBURSTS AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TO 30% ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
40% ON THURSDAY, AND AT LEAST 60% ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY. MEDIUM PROBABILITIES
(TO NEAR 40%) EXTEND TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL IS BEING MONITORED FOR THURSDAY, AS WELL, AS INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS.
GIVEN THE INCREASING TREND IN POPS, IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT UNCERTAINTY
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS ALSO INCREASING ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY,
AND MAY CONTINUE TO TREND THAT WAY IF PRECIPITATION CHANCES HOLD OR
INCREASE. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SETUP HAS AN INHERENT RISK OF LEADING
TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, BUT THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTIES (E.G., FRONTAL
LOCATION, TIMING, AND RAIN CHANCES) ARE TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT TO SAY
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.
OTHER THAN LOW RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND (PRIMARILY SATURDAY), SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 74 104 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 105 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 102 72 100 / 0 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 72 101 75 100 / 0 10 10 20
DURANT OK 73 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...13
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