835
FXUS64 KOUN 060435
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1035 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1029 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- SEVERAL FRONTS WILL LEAD TO TEMPORARY COOL-DOWNS FOR NORTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT BRINGS BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH OKLAHOMA (IT HAS PROGRESSED
JUST PAST I-44) WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. THIS WILL YIELD A
FAIRLY STEEP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S / LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. TONIGHT, WE'LL SEE A SIMILAR
GRADIENT SET UP WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING A RETURN TO 70S AND
LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AFFECTING TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
ON FRIDAY (WHERE WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP AROUND 5 DEGREES FROM
THE PREVIOUS DAY).
DAY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A POTENT, PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID-DAY SATURDAY (NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED).
GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL CAA, WOULD EXPECT WIND NBM'S POST-
FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS TO TREND UPWARD (WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30MPH+
FOR SOME AREAS) FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30'S TO MID-40'S. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50'S. WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF I-44/I-35 CORRIDOR, WHICH
INCLUDES ALL SITES BUT WWR/CSM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE
EXTENT AND COVERAGE, BUT BKN MVFR CEILINGS WERE INTRODUCED DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD WITH PNC/SWO POTENTIALLY SEEING LOW CLOUDS UNTIL THE
MID-MORNING HOURS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF LOW CEILINGS
DEVELOP QUICKER OR LOWER THAN MODELS AND CURRENT
SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS. NORTH WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTH BEFORE A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT WWR AND BRINGS A RETURN TO NORTH
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 49 76 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 45 77 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 48 80 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 38 76 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 45 74 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 56 80 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...23
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