370
FXUS64 KOUN 161920
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
- SEVERE STORMS, WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE, ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING (WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA).
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
FIRE WEATHER IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWEST, WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS AS THE DRYLINE
MIXES EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 8-20%, SSW WINDS OF 15-20G35 MPH, AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
90 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL, THE AREA WITH GREATEST FIRE DANGER IS COVERED WITH
A RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING.
A SECONDARY WEATHER CONCERN IS THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS
ALSO A VERY LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED, SUB-SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA. OVERALL, SEVERE THREAT IS MITIGATED BY MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.
TONIGHT, A STRONG UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
SUBSEQUENT HEIGHT FALLS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LLJ AND
DEEPENING LEE-SIDE TROUGH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
SCATTERED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60'S ARE
EXPECTED. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES AND THE ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE PLAINS AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN RESPONSE, A 50-70KT H500
JET DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH A 30 KNOT H850 SPEED
MAX OVER THE PANHANDLES AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH 40 MPH GUSTS BEHIND THE DRYLINE DUE
TO VERY DEEP MIXING. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE (AND ACROSS MOST OF THE FA),
BROKEN CLOUD-COVER IS FORECAST IN THE MORNING WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER:
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG POST-DRYLINE GUSTS (MENTIONED ABOVE)
COULD FACILITATE RAPID FIRE SPREAD WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTH
BEHIND FROPA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ALSO OF CONCERN (AND DISCUSSED
FURTHER BELOW), IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-THUNDRSTORM SEVERE GUSTS
TOMORROW EVENING (OUT OF THE NORTH) OVER PARTS OF WEST/SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS:
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE OR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. BY THIS TIME, AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL
RESIDE OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES OF 8.5-9 C/KM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY MID-/LATE-AFTERNOON
BEFORE GROWING UPSCALE WHILE PROPAGATINGSOUTHWARD. AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE, ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER,
12Z CAMS SHOW VARIED SOLUTIONS WITH CI HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE DUE TO POTENTIAL CAPPING ISSUES. ALL HAZARDS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO EXIT OUR FA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
POTENTIAL HIGH WINDS:
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA TOMORROW EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW IS PROG'D TO REACH WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH A STRONG POST-FRONTAL LLJ,
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY (SOUTH OF I-40) ON THE NORTH AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE RAP/HRRR DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED, NON-THUNDERSTORM SEVERE GUSTS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS INTO LATE EVENING.
ON SATURDAY, DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH MORNING LOW'S IN THE UPPER 30'S TO UPPER 40'S AND DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 60'S. BREEZY NORTH WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR LOCALIZED AREAS
(NORTHWEST/WEST OKLAHOMA) ON SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE RATHER SIMILAR WITH
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST, DRY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TEXAS/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A WARMING TREND
STARTING TUESDAY.
A MORE HUMID AIRMASS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY, AS A WESTERN TROUGH/LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A DRYLINE WILL SETUP ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MID AND UPPER FLOW
WILL REMAIN WEAK. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY
EMERGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
EXPECTING THE CEILING TO BREAK ACROSS TERMINAL KDUA AND RETURNING
TO A VFR CATEGORY BY 20Z. OTHERWISE ALL REMAINING TERMINALS SHOULD
REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10 GUSTING 15-20 KTS THROUGH 00Z,
THEN BACKING SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BY 01Z. A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY 06Z WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 16Z ACROSS ALL OF OUR TERMINALS. EXPECTING STRATUS TO
BEGIN INCREASING AFTER 06Z PRODUCING A CEILING BY 12Z REDUCING
MOST OF OUR TERMINALS TO AN MVFR CATEGORY AT LEAST THROUGH 16Z
WITH TEMPOS IN PLACE SHOULD THE CEILINGS FURTHER LOWER TO AN IFR
CATEGORY. BY 16Z SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 15 GUSTING 25-30 KTS. AS FAR AS ANY STORM ACTIVITY, THERE
COULD BE SOME CONVECTION FIRE UP TOWARD EARLY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN TX SO HAVE A 30% PROBABILITY FOR A -TSRA IMPACTING ONLY
TERMINAL KSPS BETWEEN 01-03Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 78 44 64 / 10 40 70 0
HOBART OK 65 86 44 68 / 10 30 40 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 85 48 68 / 20 10 50 0
GAGE OK 62 89 36 65 / 0 20 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 67 81 41 62 / 10 70 80 0
DURANT OK 67 81 50 65 / 10 10 80 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-
010-014-021.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...68
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