958
FXUS64 KOUN 231147
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 150 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT NOT
AS HOT AS RECENT WEEKS.
- LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY ACROSS WESTERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX THROUGH THURSDAY, INCREASING AND EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS TX WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX THROUGH THE
DAY, PROMOTING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
THE AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. WITH WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST
INSTABILITY THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED, BUT INCREASINGLY
DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES (PWAT 1.7-2.0") COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETREAT
WESTWARD WITH TIME AS THE BETTER FORCING TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND EASTERN NM ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL WAVE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
THE NORM ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
ON THURSDAY THE MOISTURE PLUME TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO MAKE
SLIGHT PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COULD BRING
INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY REACHING
AS FAR EAST THE I-35 CORRIDOR, HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED THE
FURTHER WEST YOU GO.
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OK. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR,
WITH UPPER 80S LOW 90S FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA, WITH SOME LOW 80S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OK WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN
WILL BE MOST PREVALENT.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FURTHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US DEEPENS. MODELS SHOW TWO
SHORTWAVES, ONE THIS WEEKEND AND A POTENTIALLY MUCH STRONGER ONE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, THAT COULD BRING INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES OVER A BROADER PORTION OF THE AREA. CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
APPEAR MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELS LARGELY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS MORE SUBSTANTIALLY. THE WAVE NEXT WEEK HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY IF
MOISTURE FROM EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL ACTIVITY CAN BECOME
INVOLVED AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST, BUT THOSE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN FROM THIS RANGE.
WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FRONTS, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, WITH 90S
POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE WEEKEND.
WARE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS IS SPREADING SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY, IT IS NOT A GUARANTEE THAT
IT WORK INTO KPNC AND KSWO, THE PROBABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP OF IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS AT THE NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TAF SITES. UNFORTUNATELY CEILINGS ARE NOT BEING REPORTED
RIGHT NOW ON THE KPNC OBSERVATION, SO WE INCLUDE THE AMD NOT SKED
NOTE WITH THE KPNC TAF. ANY LOW CEILINGS THAT DO IMPACT THESE
SITES SHOULD LIFT OR DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 67 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 91 70 92 69 / 20 20 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 71 95 69 / 20 20 10 0
GAGE OK 86 66 88 65 / 20 30 50 70
PONCA CITY OK 85 61 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 95 67 94 64 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26
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