018
FXUS64 KOUN 142322
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
622 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 608 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT PRIMARILY ALONG I-44.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD RISK.
- COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY, WITH WEATHER
BECOMING COOL AND PLEASANT BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
AN AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. RAINFALL
IN THIS BAND HAS BEEN BETWEEN 4 AND 11 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN MULTIPLE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AS WELL AS SEVERAL RIVERS
GOING INTO FLOOD.
COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS, EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AND WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A RATHER LARGE AREA
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH A BIT
OF A LULL MAY OCCUR MID-AFTERNOON, ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH RECORD PWATS, RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO VERY
HIGH AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLOOD WATCH. MAY
NEED TO RECONFIGURE THE WATCH BASED ON TRENDS (REMOVE NORTHWEST AND
ADD TO THE SOUTHEAST).
WILL ALSO KEEP AN EYE ON LOCATION OF EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THERE CURRENTLY IS A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. IF THIS BECOMES
THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH THE LARGE UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST, IF A
BREAK IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP DOES OCCUR THE BOUNDARY COULD LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD ADDING AREA TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG
WINDS GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD ALONG WITH THE FLOODING
RAINFALL, HOWEVER THE RISK OF HAIL AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY AS WINDS INCREASE THIS EVENING AS
LLJ REDEVELOPS.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THURSDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND MOVE NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, WE WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION BAND FROM
SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THIS COULD ADD ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL TO THOSE AREAS.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST, A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG, TO LOW END SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO CREATE A RATHER WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH
SKIES PERHAPS CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. IF THIS OCCURS
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MID/UPPER 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE. MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY, BUT IN THE WAKE OF THIS STRONG COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW/MID 60S.
FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING SATURDAY MORNING,
SO A FROST IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A FREEZE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
WINDS WILL TRY TO REBOUND TO THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY, SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS AND A
WARMING TREND INTO THE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AS INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVERSPREADS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A COUPLE COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY/LOWER CEILINGS.
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA (KWWR), FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT WITH IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW, WHICH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST (WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY). ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 78 48 58 / 100 100 20 0
HOBART OK 65 78 48 60 / 100 80 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 84 53 62 / 80 100 70 0
GAGE OK 58 72 42 57 / 90 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 64 78 45 58 / 100 90 10 0
DURANT OK 69 89 55 65 / 30 20 50 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ005>031-033>040-
042-044.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...10
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