879
FXUS64 KOUN 200742
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
142 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- COOLER, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT A RETURN
TO MORE TYPICAL FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEAS, IT WILL PROBABLY
STAY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN SO, IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH
THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL TODAY AND GO THROUGH
FRONTOLYSIS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT, SURFACE WINDS
WILL VEER TOWARD THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS IN THE FRONT'S WAKE, SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO THE LOW 60S DEG F
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS WITH WINDS BACKING
TOWARD THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE
IS LOW CHANCE (~20%) OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION (RAIN OR SNOW)
NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH NO IMPACTS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION DUE TO BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FRONT'S
WAKE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL (BUT SEASONABLE) DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S DEG F.
LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DRY AIR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL PROVIDE AN EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. AS A RESULT, A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND ANOTHER FREEZE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RECEPTIVE/DRY
FUELS, FIRE WEATHER WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN ONCE AGAIN.
MONDAY WILL BE TRANSITION DAY WITH THE WARMEST WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THE EARLIEST IN THE
DAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE CONFINED NEAR THE
100TH MERIDIAN ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS--WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST.
BY TUESDAY, THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST
AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
IN THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEG F (~15 DEG ABOVE-NORMAL) WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
EVEN WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS, MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS LIMITED
WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 TO 30%. THIS
DRY RETURN FLOW (DRF) PATTERN WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATING TEMPERATURES ~10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT,
AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
A COLD FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A ~25 DEG F SPREAD BETWEEN THE
10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE. EVEN SO, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME IS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME VERY LOCALIZED AREAS OF SMOKE AND/OR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES NEAR OR DOWNWIND OF ANY ONGOING WILDFIRES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 54 32 50 28 / 10 10 0 0
HOBART OK 56 28 52 26 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 35 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 52 21 51 21 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 49 28 49 25 / 10 20 0 0
DURANT OK 59 42 59 31 / 10 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26
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