888
FXUS64 KOUN 101836
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
136 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
MAIN HAZARDS.
- THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN
ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA,
ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL REMAINS LIMITED IN THAT AREA.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS
OF COUNTIES. MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. AFTERNOON HEATING, IN ADDITION TO
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, WILL HELP BOLSTER INSTABILITY BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK
COLD FRONT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INEVITABLY STALLS. GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK
SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY PARAMETERIZATION THIS AFTERNOON,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THE STRONGEST CORES THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AFOREMENTIONED STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY, WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY "TALL, SKINNY CAPE", UPDRAFTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ROBUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS DURING THE MORNING. NEVERTHELESS, AN UPDRAFT OR TWO MAY
OVER PERFORM AND PRODUCE HAIL UP TO QUARTERS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS -- ALTHOUGH, SMALL HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE LIKELY SCENARIO.
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY BOTH THE INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TEXAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHWARD
INTO KANSAS, WHERE MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S BY THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OFF
A DRYLINE THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. DEEPENING MOISTURE
WITHIN THE VERTICAL PROFILE MAY FOSTER AN INCREASED FLOODING
THREAT FOR THIS LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY'S SEVERE RISK IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, AS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING'S STORMS MAY "OVERWORK" THE ENVIRONMENT AND
LIMIT THE DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IF THE
ENVIRONMENT CAN RECOVER, A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX JUST EAST OF
THE 100TH MERIDIAN, WHICH WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN FORM
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
STORMS THAT REMAIN ISOLATED INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION OF THE
U.S. ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. PATTERNS ALOFT BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS BY MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK AND THE EXACT TIMING OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE(S) WILL
DETERMINE THE BEST DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS
OF NOW, MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER DAYS WITH A DRYLINE SETUP. WEDNESDAY'S POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER COULD BE SHIFTED EASTWARD IF THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH BY
THEN. DETAILS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS THE
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE WESTERN COAST THIS WEEKEND. FIRE WEATHER
MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WEST OF THE DRYLINE. SO NOT
ONLY WILL THE DRYLINE POSITIONING BE KEY FOR STORMS, BUT ALSO FOR
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IF AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA DO NOT RECEIVE SUFFICIENT RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A SMATTERING OF STRATOCUMULUS IS FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
RIGHT ON THE 3,000 FOOT CEILING LINE AND THE SCT/BKN CUTOFF AS
WELL, SO VFR VS MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE AROUND AT RANDOM AT
CERTAIN SITES. OF GREATER IMPACT IS THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ENID EASTWARD THROUGH STILLWATER. THIS AREA ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STORMS
SHOULD DECAY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 60 78 62 78 / 10 40 80 80
HOBART OK 60 79 60 82 / 20 60 90 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 62 81 63 82 / 10 40 90 70
GAGE OK 56 77 57 85 / 20 70 70 30
PONCA CITY OK 59 79 61 78 / 30 50 80 80
DURANT OK 61 81 64 78 / 10 20 50 90
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...04
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