719
FXUS64 KOUN 180204
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
904 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 827 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- MOSTLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
- NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
OVER THE COLORADO HIGH PLAINS. WITH THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW, LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, BUT THE LIGHT WINDS SOUTHEAST NEAR
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SURFACE RIDGE AND THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS. THUS STARTS THE WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
OK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE PASSES BY, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK UNTIL A LARGER TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD, POTENTIALLY BRINGING GREATER
RAIN CHANCES BY NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VARIED WITH
THIS SYSTEM REGARDING ITS PROGRESSION AND AMPLITUDE, BUT FOR NOW
THE HIGHEST POPS (20-40%) ARE FAVORED ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA NEXT FRI/SAT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD,
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND 50S TO LOW 60S FOR
LOWS.
WARE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 827 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING, STRONGEST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGHS CLOUDS AS WELL DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 40 63 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 39 65 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 39 67 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 39 65 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 38 64 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 43 70 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30
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