935  
FXUS64 KOUN 291459  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
859 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 855 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS TODAY AND LOWER TEMPERATURES  
SLIGHTLY. APPEARS TO BE AN EVENT WHERE A LOT OF LOCALES WILL GET  
PRECIP WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. DID STAY WITH THE NBM FOR THE  
THERMAL PROFILE AND ASSOCIATED WINTER WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING.  
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND DURATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT  
IN ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/SLEET, SO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
6  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY.  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ALTHOUGH WITH DRY  
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, MOISTENING WILL HAVE TO OCCUR BEFORE  
IT CAN REACH THE GROUND. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION  
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE  
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA. LITTLE TO NO SNOW  
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING  
VERY LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ALSO EXPECTED DUE TO THE SNOW.  
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR  
JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCUR. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE  
FA THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW/MID 40S TO LOW  
50S ACROSS THE FA TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER  
20S TO MID 30S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A CONCERN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND FOR  
AREAS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. WARM, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES  
(HIGHS 70S AND 80S) ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN OK AND WESTERN  
NORTH TX WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOW RH WEST OF THE  
DRYLINE, AND DRY VEGETATION. STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS  
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS  
WEST OF THE DRYLINE LEADING TO CRITICAL TO POSSIBLY EXTREME FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
EAST OF THE DRYLINE, SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED BUT THE RETURN  
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ROBUST WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID  
50S IN SE PARTS OF THE FA ON SUNDAY. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR  
SUNDAY CONTINUE TO LOWER AND DECREASE IN AREA. IF MODEL TRENDS  
CONTINUE, SUNDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE FA.  
 
MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, ALTHOUGH  
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT. RAIN  
COULD BE POSSIBLE IN SE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS THE FRONT MOVES  
ACROSS THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE IN THE FA.  
MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS  
IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COULD BE  
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE  
REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST WED FEB 28 2024  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TAFS. WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO  
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING LIGHT  
THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN INCREASING LATER IN THE MORNING. LOWER  
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA  
AFTER SUNRISE WITH MOSTLY VFR BUT SOME AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 44 33 64 46 / 70 20 0 0  
HOBART OK 41 31 69 42 / 50 0 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 43 32 74 46 / 70 10 0 0  
GAGE OK 43 28 72 41 / 50 10 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 49 32 62 43 / 40 20 0 0  
DURANT OK 45 35 66 48 / 70 30 0 0  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...25  
LONG TERM....25  
AVIATION...26  
 
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