077
FXUS64 KOUN 231054
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
554 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 545 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST DAYS INTO AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY INTO FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR
NORTHERN/WESTERN OK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY
WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY OVER WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN OK BUT A
LINGERING EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO
DRASTICALLY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS
WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX WHERE HIGHS IN THE LOW 100S AND
HEAT INDICES OF 105-109 ARE FORECAST. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS.
OTHER THAN HEAT, A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THAT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY IN
THE PANHANDLES BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO MAKING IT INTO
WESTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BRING DAMAGING
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, ALONG WITH A RISK FOR LIGHTNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS COULD MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN OK THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DRAWS CLOSER TO
THE AREA, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT STORM STRENGTH SHOULD BE
WANING AS THEY REACH OUR AREA.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL US ON FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY RETREATS WESTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY, EITHER FROM LINGERING OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY OR REDEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN NORTHERN OK AND/OR IN THE VICINITY OF LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT. STORMS FRIDAY COULD BRING A RISK FOR
STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY
BE 20-40% (ISOLATED-SCATTERED) SO MOST WILL STAY DRY.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HOT, THOUGH THERE IS GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPERATURES THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN OK) GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF AT LEAST SOME CLOUD
DEBRIS IN THE AREA LEFTOVER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS,
INCREASING HUMIDITY (LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS) IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO HEAT INDICES NEAR OR OVER 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, THOUGH WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE TO SEE WHAT IMPACT, IF ANY, LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY
HAVE ON TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING HOT TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 100S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH HEAT INDICES 105+ EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
WARE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS MAY IMPACT PNC FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS TO START THE FORECAST SO HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 AT
PNC. OTHERWISE, SOME DAYTIME CU WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS AT MOST SITES.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT IMPACTING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND HAVE INTRODUCED A
LOW PROBABILITY AT WWR BEGINNING AT 06Z TONIGHT. GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 97 76 97 78 / 0 0 10 20
HOBART OK 100 76 101 78 / 0 0 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 100 76 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 101 76 102 74 / 20 20 20 30
PONCA CITY OK 88 74 95 78 / 20 0 50 20
DURANT OK 96 77 96 79 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>037.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>089.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30
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