213
FXUS64 KOUN 041707
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- OUR HEATWAVE WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER REMAINS A CONCERN GIVEN HOT TEMPERATURES AND
ONGOING DROUGHT/VERY DRY FUELS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
OUR STUBBORNLY PERSISTENT HOT AND DRY PATTERN ROLLS ON TODAY, AS A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THE REMNANTS OF A PRIOR TROPICAL SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND A BRIEF
(LIGHT) RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AS FAR NORTH AS
THE RED RIVER THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY/THURSDAY, A WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TODAY, WITH HOTTEST CONDITIONS (MID-100S)
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS. EVEN
WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" AMBIENT CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST, CONTINUED
NORTHWARD MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD 105-110 DEG
F HEAT INDICES. A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM, AND
WAS EXTENDED TO INCLUDE MORE OF WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA,
WHERE AMBIENT OR HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED
105 DEG F FOR MUCH OF THE MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
WHILE CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (~10%), WE WILL BE MONITORING WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS ROLLING PLAINS THIS
EVENING THAT MAY APPROACH PORTIONS OF HARDEMAN/FOARD/KNOX
COUNTIES PRIOR TO DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE GENERALLY UNSPECTACULAR SENSIBLE WEATHER,
AT LEAST FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR A BREAK FROM THE MONOTONY OF OUR
CONSISTENT HOT AND DRY FORECAST. A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE, FOSTERING CONTINUED TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES
AND >105 DEG F HEAT INDICES. ADDITIONAL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HEAT
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY DURING THE WEEKEND. WHILE WE KNOW THIS
PATTERN IS BECOMING OLD, HEAT SAFETY PRACTICES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE IMPLEMENTED, AS CONDITIONS REMAIN MORE AKIN TO MID-SUMMER THAN
EARLY FALL. DRY TIME WILL REIGN, THOUGH WE WILL BE MONITORING
TRENDS ON A FEW WEAKER SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST
BY SUNDAY FOR PERHAPS SOME VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WHILE THE WEATHER COMPONENT INCORPORATED INTO BROADER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN HAS TEMPERED SOME OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, MAINLY
RELATED TO THE ARRIVAL OF GREATER SURFACE MOISTURE (AND RESULTANT
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY), HOT CONDITIONS DURING THE PEAK BURN PERIOD
AND VERY DRY FIRE FUEL PROVIDES REASON TO CONTINUE REMAINING
VIGILANT, DESPITE LESSENING OF TRADITIONAL FIRE CATEGORIES.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
ENSEMBLE SIGNAL REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING CENTERED NEAR/ACROSS OUR AREA INTO NEXT WEEK,
DESPITE AT LEAST ONE STRONGER UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO IMPINGE
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE STREAK OF UPPER-90S TO MID-100S
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND >105 DEG F HEAT INDICES ROLLING ON INTO NEXT
WEEK. WHILE NIL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN
OUR FORECAST, CAN'T RULE OUT THE LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN EXACTLY THE PATTERN BREAKS, EVEN FOR JUST A
FEW DAYS. RIGHT NOW, THERE IS *SOME/MODEST* SIGNAL IN ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND
PERHAPS MODERATED TEMPERATURES ARRIVES BY NEXT WEEKEND
(12TH-14TH). SOMETHING WE WILL BE WATCHING WITH KEEN INTEREST OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH OCCASIONAL DIURNAL
CUMULUS BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 74 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 73 101 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 73 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>008-010>013-
015>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...08
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