769  
FXUS64 KOUN 200347  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
1047 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 1044 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2024  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING, WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.  
 
- HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
- HEAT RELIEF IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2024  
 
THE MAIN ISSUE THIS EVENING WILL BE STORM POTENTIAL. WE HAVE BEEN  
GETTING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN AREA OF CONFLUENT LOW-  
LEVEL WINDS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH SOME  
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WE'LL LIKELY SEE A  
FEW MORE STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS  
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY  
SEVERE STORMS WITH SOME WIND POTENTIAL AS DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS  
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER 1500 J/KG. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE  
EVENING.  
 
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS  
EVENING, IT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AND NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT  
COOLING, SO HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE  
AREA FRIDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN  
OKLAHOMA BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM NEW MEXICO THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2024  
 
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FRIDAY EVENING AS  
WELL, BUT THE PRIMARY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE  
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TREND  
CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE  
PRECIPITATION AREA (AT LEAST INITIALLY), AND WILL CONTINUE THIS  
TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION TIMING AND GEOGRAPHY IN OUR FORECAST.  
RIGHT NOW THERE LOOK TO BE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS  
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE  
AREA, SO HOPEFULLY WE WILL NOT GET HORNSWAGGLED OUT OF THESE  
STORMS WITH THE FRONT. WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED TIMING OF THE  
FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT ON SUNDAY WITH MORE  
CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY AREAS OF RAIN, AND THEN THE FRONT BRINGS  
MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PROB30 TSRA WILL BE INCLUDED AT KWWR FOR  
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AS TSRA BUILDS CLOSE TO RETREATING  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE ARE A FEW HIGH RES MODELS THAT DEVELOP  
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 12Z, BUT RUN TO RUN  
INCONSISTENCY AND WEAK FORCING, WILL ONLY MENTION BKN MID CLOUDS  
TO START FORECAST.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 98 74 95 / 20 0 0 0  
HOBART OK 75 100 72 98 / 20 0 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 101 72 98 / 10 0 0 0  
GAGE OK 68 101 71 95 / 10 20 0 20  
PONCA CITY OK 71 98 75 98 / 30 10 20 10  
DURANT OK 73 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...26  
LONG TERM....26  
AVIATION...11  
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