679
FXUS64 KOUN 262217
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
517 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 514 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
- CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IF STORMS OCCUR, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING
VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A LOW TORNADO RISK.
- DRIER AIR MOVES IN MONDAY, WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OK.
- LOW STORM CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK TUESDAY, BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK WITH A COMPLEX SET OF METEOROLOGICAL
FEATURES IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING AND HAS ALREADY PRODUCED A FEW
WEAK STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK, THOUGH A
STRONG STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WE'LL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO FOCUS IN TWO MAIN AREAS: ALONG A DRYLINE ROUGHLY NEAR
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 81 (MAINLY SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS),
AND IN THE WARM FRONT ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
DRYLINE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME HEATING WITH
UPPER SUPPORT BEING QUITE DISTANT. CAMS ARE INCONSISTENT ON WHETHER
THERE'S ENOUGH FORCING TO GET STORMS TO FORM, BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL HAVE A RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
THE WARM FRONT MAY BE A LATER SHOW AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES.
CAMS DEPICT STORMS STARTING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. AGAIN, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
GETTING STORMS TO FORM, BUT THE CHANCES ARE HIGHER IN THIS REGION.
SIMILARLY, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE BOTH POTENTIAL
HAZARDS.
THE TORNADO RISK MAY BE MOST ACUTE WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO
RAMP UP THIS EVENING. THIS JET WILL ALSO HELP STORMS PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY / WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ON MONDAY, SETTING US UP FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, PUTTING IT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE HIGHEST ERCS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME OVERLAP TO WATCH, BUT MOST AREAS
OUTSIDE OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAVE SEEN ENOUGH GREEN-UP TO MITIGATE
FIRE DANGER. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE THERMAL
RIDGE) AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT, THEN
STALL ROUGHLY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY (THOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FRONTAL POSITION). THIS WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO SET US UP WITH A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT RANGING FROM HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO THE LOW 90S IN NORTH TEXAS.
DAY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
DRY/COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AS THE WAVE DRAWS MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE RESIDUAL
FRONTAL ZONE. EXTENSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
IS FORECAST COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA (CURRENTLY MOST FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH
TX). THE SEVERE RISK APPEARS MORE UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN RETURN NORTHWARD.
HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WARE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY INTO IMPACTING TAF SITES, BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE.
LLWS WILL AFFECT MOST TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 88 55 80 / 20 0 0 20
HOBART OK 63 90 52 86 / 20 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 93 62 91 / 10 0 0 20
GAGE OK 53 82 44 76 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 65 84 48 71 / 40 0 0 10
DURANT OK 71 90 68 83 / 20 10 10 60
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14
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