713
FXUS64 KOUN 291133
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH SEVERE RISKS ON BOTH DAYS.
- FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-35.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK. THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE BUT A FEW STORMS MIGHT BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. THE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO END/MOVE OUT OF THE FA LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS/STORMS, PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE EAST OF I-35 WHERE THERE
IS BETTER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK. WINDS HERE ARE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT IN SOME
LOCATIONS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY MID-
MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE REGION BRINGING SOME LIFT TO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LIFT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY OF 2000 TO AS MUCH AS
4000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK.
WITH THIS INSTABILITY, SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
CONCERNS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING.
WARMER, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAT THURSDAY'S HIGHS.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OK AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FA SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG WITH A DRYLINE SETTING UP IN
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S/70S. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 4000 J/KG. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
ON SUNDAY, MODELS SHOW A WEAK RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY SUNDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS DO
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP IN WEST TX THAT MAY MOVE
INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TX BEFORE DISSIPATING SUNDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY.
THE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND POSSIBLY A
FEW TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD AND AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A BIT OF A DIRTY RIDGE WITH VARIOUS WEAK DISTURBANCES MEANDERING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE 90S. AFTER THAT, TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT TERMINALS
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OK BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF SOUTHEAST
OK. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOW STRATUS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL OK IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THIS MORNING,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 70 92 71 / 30 20 10 20
HOBART OK 91 68 95 68 / 10 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 92 71 94 71 / 0 10 10 10
GAGE OK 88 64 94 65 / 20 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 84 68 90 70 / 30 50 20 30
DURANT OK 88 74 91 75 / 10 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...08
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