361
FXUS64 KOUN 031142
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
642 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- OUR HEATWAVE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- VERY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BUT OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT AND DRY FUELS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S. TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE
REMNANTS OF EDOUARD WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DRIFT AS IT WEAKENS ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN TX TODAY. THESE REMNANTS MIGHT BRING A CHANCE (15-
20%) OF RAIN TO FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY. HOWEVER, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (<0.25"), IF THE AREA RECEIVES ANY RAIN AT
ALL. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE FA IS GOING TO BE DRY ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
HOT, WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S (GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-
35) TO THE LOW 100S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURES
EAST OF I-35 WILL BE A FEW DEGREES "COOLER" BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER FROM THE
EFFECTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD, ESPECIALLY IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA. IF CLOUDS ARE MORE EXTENSIVE AND/OR HANG ON LONGER THAN
EXPECTED, THEN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY BE TOO HOT. ON THE
REVERSE SIDE OF THAT IF THERE IS NOT AS MUCH CLOUD COVER THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD BE HOTTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY
LEADING TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA. THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 105 TO 110F RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO
7 PM WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE. REMOVED THE ADVISORY FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL OK WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN
JUST ENOUGH. ALSO EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REST OF
WESTERN NORTH TX AND ADDED SOME COUNTIES IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OK.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED MORE OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION, THE HOT,
HUMID, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA WITH NO CHANCE
FOR RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 90S/LOW 100S WILL RETURN AREAWIDE FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. HEAT INDICES OF 105-110F ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME VALUES OF 110+ POSSIBLE IN SE PARTS OF THE FA. HEAT ADVISORIES
AT LEAST WILL VERY LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN SOME AREAS.
WITH THE HUMID CONDITIONS STICKING AROUND, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN LOW BUT THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN VEGETATION WILL REMAIN
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDFIRES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
105-110F RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS MEAN THAT HEAT HEADLINES (MOST
LIKELY HEAT ADVISORIES) WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
NOT BE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY MUCH NEED RAINFALL INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER THE VERY DRY VEGETATION WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDFIRES
SO EVERYONE NEEDS TO TAKE STEPS TO PREVENT FIRE STARTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
MVFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KDUA THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KDUA, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND KWWR THIS
MORNING.
SOUTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 98 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 102 72 103 74 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 103 73 102 73 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 102 71 101 72 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 98 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 93 72 97 72 / 20 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-017>020-022>027-033>039-044-045.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...10
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