993
FXUS64 KOUN 071832
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
132 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 132 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING & NIGHT.
- HEAT RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING, WARMER AND DRY WEATHER IS ONGOING
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING/DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH IS BEING REPLACED
BY A LEE CYCLONE TO OUR NORTHWEST, YIELDING A MODEST WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE. COUPLED WITH A WARMER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND
CLEAR SKIES, NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (MID TO UPPER-70S) ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
THE OVERLAP OF WARM TEMPERATURES, RELATIVE HUMIDITY ~20% AND BREEZY
WINDS WILL LIKELY YIELD PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN-NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MID-EVENING.
WHILE THIS FORECAST COMBINATION LOOKS TO FALL ON THE LOWER
MARGINS OF MORE CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER CONCERN, UNTIL IT RAINS AGAIN
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA, FUELS WILL REMAIN CRITICALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
THE LEADING EDGE OF A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, AS A SOUTHERLY BREEZE IS MAINTAINED. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RUN 10-15 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
INCREASING CONCERN FOR BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, INCLUDING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS, REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
ON FRIDAY, A FAST-MOVING/LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PUSHING A TRAILING SURFACE
FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY THE EARLY
EVENING. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE, WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 90 DEGREES, SHOULD HELP ERODE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO ENSUE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT, WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.
DESPITE RATHER MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN, COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ATOP A VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
INSTABILITY BUILD. COMBINED WITH STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW/SHEAR, STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. CONCERN
LOOKS TO FOCUS ON DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND EVENTS, THOUGH A FEW
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LARGE HAIL RISK WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENING.
ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH TOWARDS SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG-SEVERE STORMS, PENDING DETAILS ON
THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT BY THIS TIME. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS REGARD IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH RICH MOISTURE ADVANCES THROUGH
THE EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS IF THIS POTENTIAL MATERIALIZES.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A CLOUDY AND COOLER ONE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA IN THE IMMEDIATE POSTFRONTAL REGIME. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXIST NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
DAY.
A BROADER PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS ON MONDAY AND LASTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THE
JET WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MAKING
ONE OR MORE OF THOSE DAYS (ESPECIALLY TUESDAY) PRIMED FOR POTENTIAL
RECORD-SETTING HEAT. THE OTHER DAYS WILL BE MERELY VERY WARM INSTEAD
OF HOT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULDN'T BE ALTOGETHER DISMISSED, ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT DON'T LOOK IMPRESSIVE
AT THE MOMENT.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PERSIST AT MOST SITES INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING, VEERING FRIDAY MORNING AND BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS WILL IMPACT
MOST SITES AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 84 57 85 / 0 40 60 0
HOBART OK 54 89 56 90 / 0 20 40 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 55 86 59 89 / 0 0 30 10
GAGE OK 51 85 48 89 / 0 10 0 20
PONCA CITY OK 54 83 50 83 / 0 50 20 10
DURANT OK 54 80 61 84 / 0 0 30 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...08
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