399
FXUS64 KOUN 021718
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 225 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- HEATING TREND ON FRIDAY PEAKING SATURDAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES RETURNING BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
- STORM CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES IN OUR AREA ON SUNDAY.
- ISOLATED STORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME AREAS NOT
SEEING ANY RAIN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
ANOTHER PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND
HOT MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WHICH
IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (LOWER TO MID 90S) FOR EARLY JULY. WE
DO HAVE A 25% PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. RIDGING FROM THE CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BE GRADUALLY EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL START
BREAKING DOWN SIGNALING AN UPCOMING CHANGE (HOTTER) IN OUR WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SURFACE MOISTURE IS STRONGEST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES INCREASE IN THE
DEWPOINT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP UNDER A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
ROUNDING THE RIDGE. IN A WEAK SHEAR LOW-END MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THERE COULD BE SOME SHORT-LIVED ISOLATED STORMS PULSE UP
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST CWA TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN GUSTY
WINDS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH THIS POSSIBLE CONVECTION IN
OUR SOUTHEAST. LATEST CAMS RUNS ALSO SUPPORTING CONVECTION IN OUR
SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS NBM. HOWEVER DID SPATIALLY EXPAND THE NBM
POPS FURTHER WEST AND NORTH BY A FEW COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUILDING NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD ON
FRIDAY AND OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY LATE
SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN JET STREAM FLOWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. WE WILL SEE A 2-DAY HEATING TREND STARTING FRIDAY
AND PEAKING ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH MORE SUBTLE MID TO UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA BUT OUR WESTERN HALF WILL SEE
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS BY SATURDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING TRIPLE DIGITS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY GENERALLY
BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY REACH OR EXCEED
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGHEST ALTHOUGH NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY AS PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. NBM HAS BEEN
RUNNING A BIT WARM BIASED WITH TEMPERATURES IN TIME AND APPEARS
FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE FOR FRIDAY BUT DID HAVE TO ADJUST SLIGHTLY
COOLER FOR SATURDAY'S MAXT USING THE CONSMOS.
A SURFACE LOW LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS LOOSENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA
WEAKENING OUR SOUTH WINDS BECOMING LESS BREEZY GOING INTO SATURDAY.
STRONG MOISTURE & DIURNAL HEATING COULD AGAIN BREAK THE CAP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY & SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WHERE ISOLATED
STORM POPS (15%) WILL RETURN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A SHORT-WAVE PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE MAIN JET STREAM WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. NORTHERN
PLAINS MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/KANSAS
INITIATING CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. FOR
NOW THERE IS NO SEVERE RISK EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION.
INDEPENDENCE DAY RECAP: LIGHT SOUTH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER
SUNDOWN. HEAT INDICES 100-105 ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON BECOMING MID TO UPPER 90S JUST AFTER SUNDOWN. ALTHOUGH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK WILL BE
EXPECTING ANY STORMS COMING DOWN FROM KANSAS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE
EVENING AT THE EARLIEST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE SKIES MAY BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH-
BASED CEILINGS WELL ABOVE THE HEIGHTS OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
STORM CHANCES INCREASE SOUTH OF I-40 BY DAYLIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT IN HANDLING
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING IT THROUGH ON MONDAY AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WASHES IT OUT ON THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE LINES WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW/WINDS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. OUR UPPER AIR PATTERN STARTS
BECOMING MORE CHAOTIC WITH THE UPPER RIDGE LIFTING THE MAIN JET
STREAM FLOW FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA THEN BREAKS DOWN INTO NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THIS WILL RESULT IN STORM CHANCES EVERY DAY BUT
WOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED WHERE SOME OF OUR AREAS COULD SEE RAIN
WHILE OTHERS WON'T. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL MEANING NORMAL HOT & MUGGY BUT NO WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE
HEATING. HOWEVER STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WILL PERSIST SO HEAT INDICES MAY REACH EXCESSIVE IN THAT AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A MIX OF (SCATTERED) CLOUD
HEIGHTS AND AN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGE AT THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADD
PROB30 MENTIONS AT KWWR & KCSM FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHERE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS NOW ANTICIPATED. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS MOVE NEAR THESE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, STILL EXPECT ANOTHER DISPARATE AREA OF STORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/KDUA THROUGH SUNSET.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 76 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 95 75 100 75 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 92 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 90 76 95 76 / 0 0 10 0
DURANT OK 91 77 95 77 / 30 10 20 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...09
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