475
FXUS64 KOUN 220644
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
144 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST DAYS INTO AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL OFFER A BRIEF RESPITE FROM EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHILE OTHER PARTS WILL SEE ANOTHER AFTERNOON
OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OK DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 100S
AND HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN 105 TO 110 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. TO THE NORTH, ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
OK, IT WILL STILL BE HOT BUT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY
DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS TO THESE AREAS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES LESS THAN 100 DEGREES.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, STRONG HEATING COULD HELP SPARK ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE CHANCES OF
DEVELOPMENT ARE ABOUT 10-15%.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY, BUT RESIDUAL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL TEMPER THE
WARMUP SOMEWHAT. READINGS HERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
WITH LOW 100S AND HEAT INDICES OVER 105 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT SOUTH/WESTWARD ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK
THURSDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE PASSES BY, ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.
UNFORTUNATELY, EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE RETREATING, HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOW 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY PUSHING HEAT INDICES BACK CLOSE TO 110 DEGREES
IN SOME SPOTS.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND BACK OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS OVER THE AREA AND
SQUASHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NEAR ZERO. HIGHER HUMIDITY MAY
ALSO BRING A RETURN OF HEAT INDICES NEAR OR OVER 110 DEGREES FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY,
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS STRONG UPPER RIDGING IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK, FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA AND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WINDS HAVE BEEN KEEPING UP
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO BE
GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 97 73 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 102 75 101 77 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 102 77 100 76 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 99 73 102 77 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 90 71 91 74 / 0 0 20 30
DURANT OK 100 75 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ033>039-043>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...14
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