750  
FXUS64 KOUN 231149  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
649 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THAT THE PRIMARY AREAS OF  
CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF  
THE FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH KAY COUNTY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOME OF  
THE STORMS THAT IT IS WORTH KEEPING SOME LOW POPS IN THAT AREA  
BEFORE THE CONVECTION DECREASES AND/OR MOVES EAST.  
 
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE MID-LEVEL  
WAVE COMING TOWARD THE PLAINS TONIGHT MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS  
BY 06Z AND INTO KANSAS BY 12Z. WITH THIS TIMING, IT IS MUCH LESS  
LIKELY THE ENHANCED LIFT WITH THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE DRYLINE IN  
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND THEREFORE IT WILL  
BE MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE  
TODAY AS THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE TO  
PREVENT VERY MUCH DEVELOPMENT. AND THIS SHOWS IN THE CURRENT  
MODELS WITH MUCH LESS QPF SIGNAL FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  
WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE  
SO SOME LOW POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED, BUT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT A  
CERTAINTY. WE WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS SUNDAY MORNING AFTER  
09Z IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE  
THROUGH KANSAS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
SUMMARY:  
 
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (DETAILS  
BELOW). EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY (WHICH WILL BE WARMER THAN  
AVERAGE), TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THANKS TO A FEW  
COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH.  
 
WEATHER IMPACTS:  
 
- SUNDAY: SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON,  
CONCENTRATED MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING  
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.  
 
- TUESDAY: SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE EVENING /  
OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION.  
 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS:  
 
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE, BRINGING A TROUGH ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT  
WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MID AFTERNOON, WHEN DAYTIME  
HEATING SHOULD AID IN INITIATING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. AMPLE  
INSTABILITY (1500-2000 JOULES OF MUCAPE) AND SHEAR (50 KNOTS 0-6KM)  
WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS.  
 
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, MONDAY WILL SEE BRIEFLY  
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE WARMING UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY UNDER AN  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BARREL  
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. DETAILS  
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, THOUGH THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT  
AMONG THE MODELS THAT OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE LINE OF  
FIRE.  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS, THE UPPER  
PATTERN SEEMS TO CALM DOWN A BIT, GIVING US MORE SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.  
 
DAY  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF WIDELY  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
OR THIS EVENING IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE  
ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND LOWER CEILINGS. THE CHANCES OF  
THESE AFFECTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES ARE QUITE LOW EXCEPT FOR A  
PROB30 AT KPNC AFTER 06Z.  
 
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS EVENING WHICH WILL  
CREATE NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA. WIND SPEEDS ABOVE THE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THIS SHEAR  
LAYER MAY BE AS HIGH AS 55-60 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
UPPER AIR
 
 
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021  
 
NO UPPER AIR FLIGHTS ARE PLANNED FOR TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 83 67 83 52 / 0 20 10 0  
HOBART OK 87 66 86 51 / 10 20 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 66 90 55 / 0 10 0 0  
GAGE OK 87 60 77 45 / 20 20 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 84 66 79 46 / 0 30 20 0  
DURANT OK 85 67 85 59 / 0 0 20 20  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...26  
LONG TERM....14  
AVIATION...26  
 
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