532
FXUS64 KOUN 310927
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
427 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 426 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT AND DRY FUELS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE ~595 DAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE
MIDWEST TODAY. EVEN WITH THE SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT, THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WITH A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS ITS WESTERN FLANK. AS A RESULT, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S DEG F. DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH WHERE THERE SHOULD NOT BE AN APPRECIABLE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AIR TEMPERATURE AND THE HEAT INDEX. AS A
MATTER OF FACT, SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE HEAT INDICES LOWER THAN
THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TODAY, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN WEAKER WINDS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THEREFORE, THE AREA FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL.
THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE COMBINATION OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
(~100 TO 106 DEG F), LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY (~18 TO 25%), AND
RELATIVELY STRONGEST WINDS (SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH). GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND VERY DRY
FUELS (I.E., ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT [ERC] PERCENTILES >90TH
PERCENTILE), THE TOTAL FIRE ENVIRONMENT (WEATHER + FUELS) WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO INITIAL ATTACK TO LOW-END LARGE WILDFIRES. A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING FOR THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE, EVEN THOUGH THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ELEVATED, THE FUELS BY THEMSELVES REMAIN
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDFIRES GIVEN THE ERC IS >90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS
ITS WESTERN FLANK. THE MOST IMPACTFUL CHANGE DURING THIS TIME IS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY RISE WITH HEAT ADVISORIES POTENTIALLY NEEDED--ESPECIALLY
BY WEDNESDAY. THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD TEMPER THE
FIRE WEATHER RISK. HOWEVER, AS NOTED ABOVE, THE VERY DRY FUELS BY
THEMSELVES REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDFIRES GIVEN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT AND THE LACK OF RAINFALL.
ONE FEATURE THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IS A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE (INVEST AL97) THAT WILL IMPACT THE TEXAS AND/OR
LOUISIANA COASTLINE. THE DISTURBANCE HAS A 70% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL DYNAMIC, AI,
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN CURVE TO THE NORTH ACROSS TEXAS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (THE PRIMARY
STEERING CURRENT FOR THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE). FROM THERE, IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR NORTH THE REMNANTS WILL SURVIVE BEFORE
DISSIPATION. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT THE REMNANTS COULD
GIVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS (OR AT LEAST INCREASED CLOUD
COVER) ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA SOMETIME DURING THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD AS A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO KEEP A COHERENT
VORTICITY MAXIMA INTO OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE, THE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BE FEATURE THAT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEPING A REMNANT VORTICITY
MAXIMA/WEAKNESS IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
OTHERWISE, HOT WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE NWP IN AGREEMENT THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. AS A MATTER OF FACT,
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY FURTHER
AMPLIFY/STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE PROBABILISTIC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) FORECAST DOES
NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH EVEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GENERALLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL INFLUENCE. NOTE THAT GIVEN THE
LOWER SUN ANGLE AND SHORTER DAYS, OUR NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN QUICKLY DECREASING OVER THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS. FOR EXAMPLE,
OKLAHOMA CITY IS DOWN TO 89 DEG F AND WICHITA FALLS IS DOWN TO 93
DEG F TODAY. THEREFORE, EVEN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WOULD STILL RESULT
IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS. S TO SW WINDS TODAY BACKING TO THE S AND
SE THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW
DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 101 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 102 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 102 75 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 102 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 101 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 103 75 101 74 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...25
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