018
FXUS64 KOUN 082355
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
BY 6PM THIS EVENING, THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA (STRETCHING FROM ABOUT BECKHAM COUNTY TO ALFALFA COUNTY,
GIVE OR TAKE A COUNTY). THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT, REACHING OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES BY EARLY MORNING.
WITH THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD CLEAR OUT, BUT SHORT TERM MODELS (E.G. NAM, RAP) HOLD ONTO A
RAZOR THIN SATURATED LAYER AT THE SURFACE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES, DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT TOWARD
MORNING UNTIL DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVES A BIT LATER.
FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
STARTING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DAY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA SATURDAY, PUSHING RAIN CHANCES TO
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES SUNDAY, BRINGING BACK WARM MOIST AIR
SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH BOTH STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AT
LOW LEVELS AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW, SPC HAS US OUTLOOKED FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS DAY 5 / 6 PERIOD.
DAY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
A COLD FRONT/NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT, CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA, WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND STRATUS AND/OR FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
(EXCEPT KWWR) BY LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS;
HOWEVER, EVEN LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR LIFR TO VLIFR CEILINGS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS (KLAW/KSPS). CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. KSPS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
OTHER TERMINALS
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 39 56 48 56 / 0 10 90 20
HOBART OK 38 57 46 57 / 0 30 80 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 48 63 54 62 / 0 30 70 40
GAGE OK 28 55 36 57 / 0 10 50 0
PONCA CITY OK 32 54 43 56 / 0 0 90 10
DURANT OK 54 65 58 67 / 20 10 70 80
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...10
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