476
FXUS64 KOUN 161906
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
206 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL SATURATION
WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER
THAN NORMAL THIS EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
CLEARING THIS EVENING, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS IN
NORTHWEST OK TO REACH NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW MORNING.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, FROST DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE LIKELY AS WINDS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10 KTS AND CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE LINGERING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S, WHICH
WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL MONDAY EARLY MORNING, WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM THE
AREA UP INTO THE LOWER 70S. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE ON MONDAY AND WILL BRING WITH IT THE NEXT COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA. PARTS OF NORTHWEST OK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ON TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS OF NOW,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING THAT THE THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN, NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTH-
CENTRAL OK EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE
AND/OR FROST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AS LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE
WARRANTED WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY MORNING AS A
MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT, COUPLED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY, COULD POSE SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO TREND UPWARDS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHERE MOST OF THE AREA
COULD SEE TEMPERATURE NEAR NORMAL.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. OUR TAFS ARE ON THE PESSIMISTIC
SIDE, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHWEST TAF SITES, INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW WITH REGARDS TO CEILINGS. IT'S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT AT
LEAST PERIODIC BREAKS AND VFR PERIODS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
TRENDS IN SHORT TERM MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND AMEND AS
NECESSARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 38 57 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 36 58 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 40 60 38 66 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 32 56 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 38 57 36 63 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 46 62 42 67 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...12
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