054
FXUS64 KOUN 162306
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
606 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 553 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR FAR NORTHWEST OK TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FROST ADVISORY IN THE NORTH AND WEST.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
COOL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN THE STORY
TODAY. THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. THE NBM FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE AT
THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, BUT STILL SEEM REASONABLE
GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH A FLOOR WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE DEWPOINT. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 32 ARE FORECAST IN HARPER AND ELLIS COUNTIES, SO
THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A FREEZE WARNING. IT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE A HARD OR LONG-DURATION FREEZE, BUT IT WILL BE A
FREEZE NONETHELESS. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THE FORECAST LOW
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE
COOL, BUT HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER (BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE)
ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE
PRESSURES DROP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A WARMING TREND AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AND A LARGE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING
THIS PERIOD (CURRENTLY <10%) IS ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OK
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NM/CO, BUT FOR NOW THE BULK OF THE FORCING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
TO OUR NORTHWEST. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY ACCOMPANY THE WESTERN US
TROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT MODEL DISAGREEMENT
IS HIGH REGARDING THE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AS IT
BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD.
WARE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
A FEW AFTERNOON CU IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE
GUSTY NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY AROUND 01Z. LIGHT NORTH WIND
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A GRADUALLY
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. ACROSS THE WEST AT CSM/WWR WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CLEAR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 38 59 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 36 61 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 39 61 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 32 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 35 60 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 43 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ004-009.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
010>016-021-022-033-034.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30
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