426  
FXUS64 KOUN 210049  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
649 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
IT'LL BE A QUIET NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE REGION. THE LIGHT SNOW  
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING HAS ENDED,  
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE EXITING  
CLOUD COVER, YOU ARE ABLE TO SEE HOW THE SNOW ACCUMULATION DID AN  
IMPRESSIVE JOB OF AVOIDING OUR CWA BOUNDARY EXCEPT FOR  
NORTHWESTERN HARPER COUNTY.  
 
ONLY MAJOR CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE COLD TEMPERATURES  
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. WINDS WILL  
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH OUT OF THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
A WARMING TREND WILL START ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE  
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.  
 
ZWINK  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE  
NEXT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE FA. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER CLOSED LOW  
ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS  
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE PATH OF THE LOW IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND  
SLOWER IN THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE GFS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,  
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ALSO SHOW A  
SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE NE NM/SE CO/OK & TX PANHANDLE AREA. THIS  
LOW WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY WITH THE GFS TRACKING ACROSS  
SOUTHERN KS WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OK. THE COLD FRONT  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH  
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE INCREASING  
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM  
SYSTEM, RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT  
WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE UNLIKELY.  
 
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY BUT  
DIFFER ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION, IF ANY, WOULD OCCUR IN THE FA. THE  
ECMWF IS MORE WIDESPREAD AND GREATER WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS  
COMPARED TO THE GFS SO THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE  
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 645 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
 
WHAT CLOUDS THERE HAVE BEEN THIS AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY  
DISSIPATING, ALTHOUGH A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST IN  
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AT KGAG AND NEAR KWWR. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES ARE FORECAST. WINDS ARE BECOMING LIGHT, BUT WILL INCREASE  
FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 22 47 34 58 / 0 0 0 0  
HOBART OK 21 48 33 59 / 0 0 0 10  
WICHITA FALLS TX 26 49 36 61 / 0 0 0 0  
GAGE OK 20 50 31 61 / 0 0 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 20 46 31 58 / 0 0 0 0  
DURANT OK 27 49 33 55 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...50  
LONG TERM....25  
AVIATION...26  
 
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