925
FXUS64 KOUN 061826
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
126 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
OUR REGION RESIDES UNDER A SPLIT-FLOW UPPER PATTERN AND LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TODAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80'S AREA-
WIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, THANKS TO WEAK DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. SOMEWHAT BREEZIER WINDS CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS, AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50'S (IN SPOTS) TO LOW-60'S.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THE BROAD, LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
COLORADO TO CHIHUAHUA, GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR TROUGH AXIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF A SUBTLE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS WOULD ONLY RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MANY OF THE SHORT-TERM
MODELS ALONG WITH THE NAM SUGGEST THIS OUTCOME. THE NAM SUGGESTS AREA-
WIDE NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THIS FEATURE AMONG MEDIUM TO LONG-RANGE
MODELS.
REGARDLESS, THERMAL GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK AND HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES DUE TO DIABATIC HEATING AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, THOUGH NOT
QUITE AS HOT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 60'S.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
A FAIRLY PERSISTENT UNSEASONABLY HOT & DRY FORECAST AT THE END OF
THE WEEK GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM COMING ASHORE FROM THE GULF COAST WHICH MAY TRACK UP THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION STAYING EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY
IMPACT FROM THIS POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY BE SOME CLOUD COVER IN
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER WE COULD SEE SOME WEATHER CHANGES
IMPACTING OUR AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CEILINGS THIS TAF PERIOD WITH MAYBE A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S AND SW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DOING THE NORMAL DIURNAL BACKING THIS EVENING TO S AND SE. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO VEER BACK TO THE S AND SW WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 88 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 60 88 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 59 91 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 60 89 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 61 88 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 56 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...25
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