399
FXUS64 KOUN 302241
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
541 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 538 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- A WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING ARE IN EFFECT TODAY, WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
WARM, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 850-MB LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS BUT ALSO INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. STRONG 850-MB SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL
MIX THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO
40-45 MPH POSSIBLE. THE DRYLINE IS DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND IS EXPECTED TO CREEP INTO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING IN DRIER CONDITIONS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WITH INCREASING VALUES SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S EAST OF THE DRYLINE, WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT.
FUELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE
STARTS WITH A CONTINUED ABSENCE OF RAIN. ELEVATED (MOSTLY WIND
DRIVEN) FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA, MORE SPECIFICALLY NEAR OR BEHIND THE DRYLINE WHERE
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ALIGN. A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THROUGH 9 PM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA, EXCEPT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, BUT THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BEFORE REACHING THE 100TH MERIDIAN. IF A STORM OR TWO WERE TO MAKE
IT INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA, MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH DECAYING UPDRAFTS.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
ANOTHER WARM DAY TUESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL FROM MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL MEANDER
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE DRYLINE DRAPED
SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD JUST WEST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 15 TO 30 PERCENT.
WHERE THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL EXIST, WINDS WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG, THUS LIMITING THE FIRE RISK TO ELEVATED VERSUS NEAR
CRITICAL.
AFTERNOON STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT IN WEST TEXAS. STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT WITH
PLENTY OF BUOYANCY (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG) WILL GIVE WAY TO TOWERING
CUMULUS AND UPDRAFT ATTEMPTS. WEAKER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO MEAGER BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KNOTS. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PERSIST LONGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERALL, THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH DRY INVERTED 'V' SOUNDINGS UP TO AROUND 700-500MB
WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF NEARLY 40 DEG F. DCAPE VALUES ARE
AROUND 1000 J/KG, SO DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WITH DECAYING STORMS. WITH A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER,
DRY LIGHTNING WILL ALSO PLAY A CONCERN FOR INTRODUCING NEW FIRE
STARTS. BEST TIMING FOR STORMS WILL BE AS EARLY AS 4-5PM AS STORMS
MOVE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND DIMINISH LIKELY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
WITH THE STALLED COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH ALOFT WITH STRENGTHENING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD WITH CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S. THE DRYLINE WILL SETUP NEAR
THE SAME AREA AS TUESDAY. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. INITIAL STORMS MAY
BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINE.
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BECOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR QLCS TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS WITH
STORM CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL COLD
FRONTS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THURSDAY WITH CHANCES
ENDING/DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.
MODELS SHOW WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
CAUSING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT THEN
COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND LATE FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL
LEAD TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE S AND SE THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN RATHER BREEZY THROUGH THE
NIGHT THEN VEER BACK TO THE S AND SW TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF NW OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT STARTING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AT ALL
TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 86 64 84 / 0 10 40 40
HOBART OK 63 89 61 84 / 0 20 30 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 62 88 65 88 / 0 10 20 40
GAGE OK 61 87 48 79 / 10 20 30 30
PONCA CITY OK 65 87 60 81 / 0 20 60 50
DURANT OK 62 84 65 84 / 0 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>029-033>038-
044.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-
009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25
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