830
FXUS64 KOUN 081821
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
121 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
- HOT & MUGGY CONDITIONS THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR
TO ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH DAY.
- MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE
THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK WRT HEAT INDICES, WITH SOME IN
EXCESS OF 105 ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
IN ADDITION WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AS WE REACH
MAX HEATING AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. IF STORMS
DO FORM THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TONIGHT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY, WARM AND MUGGY AS SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
ANOTHER HOT, BREEZY AND MUGGY DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY. AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTS BACK NORTH, THE WINDIER CONDITIONS WILL INCLUDE
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WHICH HAD SEEN LIGHTER WINDS MONDAY. PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER DEWPOINTS LOOK TO KEEP US JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. THESE STORMS WILL MAKE A
RUN AT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE DAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, MEANWHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN
THE DAY. TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, A
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WARMER
DAY AS WELL. THIS COMBINATION WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR
HEAT HEADLINES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA, SUFFICIENT HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE TREND IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAS BEEN TO KEEP STRONGER
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA AS A BROAD TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS CANADA AND THE UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM, THEY MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HOT
LATE IN THE WEEK AS EARLY THIS WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER THE
PLAINS AND A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES OR MOVES INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. STORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ALONG AN AXIS NEAR AND
EAST OF I-35. CLOUD BASES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND FULLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAR AWAY, BUT DON'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 3,000 FOOT BKN CEILINGS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ABATE SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE SIGNAL FOR TOMORROW MORNING SUGGESTING THAT
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 92 76 94 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 75 96 75 98 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 93 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 76 98 77 102 / 20 0 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 77 93 77 94 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 76 91 78 92 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-010>013-
015>020.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04
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