795
FXUS64 KOUN 301030
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
530 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 240 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LESS HOT
CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- THERE IS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH A FRONT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
THERE IS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW AND
ANY GRAVITY WAVES.
OTHERWISE, THE HEATWAVE CONTINUES TODAY WITH A ~596 DAM MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO/THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 90S TO UPPER 100S DEG F WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND
113 DEG F. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION, THE WINDS WILL BE THE LIGHTEST
HERE, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE AN EXTREME RISK FOR THOSE OUTDOORS AND INVOLVED IN PHYSICAL
ACTIVITY. THIS AREA WAS UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING.
ELSEWHERE, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD ON
ITS NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT/NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT--SO FRIDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WIND
SHIFT, SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE VERY HOT AHEAD OF THE WIND
SHIFT WITH VEERED, SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFYING
THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED
110 DEG F (THE AIR TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA COULD EVEN
BE CLOSE TO 110 DEG F). AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE, A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA,
WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY MAY RESULT
IN NOT AS HOT WEATHER.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING IS TO THE
NORTHEAST, THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (20 TO 30% CHANCE
AT A GIVEN LOCATION). ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS FROM DOWNBURSTS GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
DOWNDRAFT CAPE (>1000 J/KG).
COOLER/LESS HOT WEATHER ARRIVES ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING
HEATWAVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM UPPER 80S
DEG F (NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA) TO NEAR 100 DEG F (SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS) WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEG F.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
THE COOLER/LESS HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT
AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOT, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN/OCCASIONAL THUNDER CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
MID-MORNING, THOUGH CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL CATEGORY IMPACT ARE
VERY LOW.
OTHERWISE, CONTINUED MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS AND A MODEST SOUTH-TO-
SOUTHEAST BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 101 78 101 73 / 10 10 30 20
HOBART OK 104 78 104 73 / 10 10 30 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 104 79 105 76 / 0 0 10 20
GAGE OK 103 75 99 69 / 30 20 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 98 76 98 71 / 20 40 20 0
DURANT OK 101 79 103 77 / 0 0 10 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004>042-044>047-050-051.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ043-048-052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...09
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