008
FXUS64 KOUN 311718
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY & MONDAY.
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY & PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS THE AREA CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FA. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS ACTIVITY, IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP.
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC, A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NE TO SW
ACROSS PART OF THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE AND
AFTERNOON HEATING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS
WORKING AGAINST STORM DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT. MODELS SHOW
MODEST HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WEST TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS SHOWN IN
SOME OF THE MODELS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY APPROACH/MOVE INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH TX THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE (10%) OF
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE DRYLINE. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP IN THE AREA, THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.
THE MOST IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS FOR MOST PEOPLE IN THE FA SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES. MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS THERMAL RIDGE,
THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE, AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING TRIPLE
DIGITS IN PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. WITH THESE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE OF THE HOTTEST
DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR. FOR A FEW LOCATIONS, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR RECORD BREAKING, INCLUDING OKC. THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR MAY
31 AT WILL ROGERS AIRPORT IS 98 DEGREES WITH A CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
OF 98 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD BE
MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC, MODELS SHOW A
BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER THE FA, SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. ON
TUESDAY, EASTERLY, UPSLOPE SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. SHOWERS/STORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA IN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME AND POSSIBLY MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH TUESDAY
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. MONDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 90S AND
SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE IN THE LOW/MID 90S. THE NIGHTS EARLY THIS
WEEK WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES/DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE MORE VARIABLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. VERY LOW CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG A CORRIDOR STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 98 71 93 / 10 10 10 10
HOBART OK 72 99 70 94 / 10 0 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 98 72 95 / 10 0 0 10
GAGE OK 69 98 69 91 / 0 10 40 30
PONCA CITY OK 71 94 70 88 / 10 10 40 10
DURANT OK 75 94 73 93 / 0 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14
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