882  
FXUS64 KOUN 191918 CCA  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
218 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025  
   
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 1251 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025  
 
- SEVERE WEATHER TODAY/TONIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,  
AND STRONG TORNADOES.  
 
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM  
 
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025  
 
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FORECAST  
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING, IMPACTING  
GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY  
OVER THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO ROCKIES WILL START DIGGING ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT  
ALTHOUGH THE IMPACTFUL SEVERE WEATHER WILL INITIATE EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON NEAR AND EAST OF AN ADVANCING DRYLINE. VERY MOIST IN THE  
LOW LEVELS WITH MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE  
EAST OF THE DRYLINE PER THIS MORNINGS 12Z BALLOON OBSERVATION  
SOUNDING WITH A MID-LEVEL CAP. AS THIS MORNINGS STRATUS CONTINUES TO  
BURN OFF, DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES WILL INCREASE THE INSTABILITY STRONG TO EXTREME (SBCAPE 4000-  
5000 JKG) WHILE BREAKING THE MID-LEVEL CAP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS  
PER LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND  
WILL PERHAPS STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES.  
 
AN INITIAL ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF  
THE DRYLINE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN  
COUNTIES BORDERING THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WHERE THE CAP SHOULD BE  
ERODED. ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM SHORTWAVES EJECTED FROM THE MAIN  
WAVE MAY ALSO START BECOMING SURFACE-BASED BY AFTERNOON AS WELL.  
HOWEVER, THE TIMING FOR THE HIGHEST SEVERE RISK AND ROUND #2 NEAR  
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK  
HEATING AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. EXPECTING THE DRYLINE  
TO HAVE PUNCHED FURTHER EAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND  
ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON, SO ALL AREAS NEAR TO  
THE EAST OF THIS ADVANCING DRYLINE WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST RISK AREA  
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE COMES THROUGH.  
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE  
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NUMEROUS  
TORNADOS. STORM MOTION FOR UNBROKEN CELLS WILL BE STEERED TO THE  
NORTHEAST. THE SEVERE RISK WILL LOWER BEHIND THE DRYLINE.  
 
THE SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO END IN OUR FORECAST AREA BY  
MIDNIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO MOVE OUT. A COLD FRONT  
WILL SWEEP THROUGH OVERNIGHT SCOURING OUT THE MOISTURE BY MORNING.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025  
 
ALL STORM POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH THE COLD  
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WILL BE SUNNY, COOLER, AND  
LESS MUGGY WITHIN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS UNDER THE EXITING  
UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY  
AVERAGE (LOWER TO MID 80S HIGHS) AND COOLER NIGHTS (50S). NORTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF RETURN OF SOUTHERLY  
SURFACE WINDS BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY. WILL  
SEE A BRIEF WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MEAGER MOISTURE  
RETURN AS WE SHOULD STAY DRY. THERE COULD BE SOME MCS ACTIVITY  
COMING DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RETURN OF  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALTHOUGH FOR NOW WOULD BE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA  
PERHAPS AFFECTING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2025  
 
LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.  
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD  
LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS WEEK. A SHORTWAVE MOVING  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN  
THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE AREA DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO  
TIMING/STRENGTH/PATH OF THIS SHORTWAVE SO DEFINITELY UNCERTAINTY  
WITH THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND.  
 
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT/THURSDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES  
(COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY) ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW/MID  
80S. AFTER THURSDAY, HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S ARE EXPECTED INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2025  
 
MVFR CEILINGS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING / SHIFTING EASTWARD. MULTIPLE  
ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12  
HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS WHERE IMPACTS IS MOST POSSIBLE.  
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION  
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
DAY  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 79 56 85 / 50 0 0 0  
HOBART OK 57 81 55 90 / 10 0 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 82 58 90 / 20 0 0 0  
GAGE OK 51 81 51 85 / 10 0 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 56 78 52 81 / 50 0 0 0  
DURANT OK 64 79 58 85 / 60 0 0 0  
 
 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...68  
SHORT TERM...68  
LONG TERM....25  
AVIATION...14  
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