272
FXUS64 KOUN 270716
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
216 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 201 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- DRIER AIR MOVES IN TODAY, WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK TUESDAY,
WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR LOW OVERALL.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN OVER THE AREA AS FORCING FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE DAY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY AS OUR SUBSIDENCE IS MAINTAINED OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
WAVE. VEERING FLOW WILL HELP PUSH SURFACE MOISTURE TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH VERY DRY AIR EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN OK AND WESTERN
NORTH TX TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN OK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT IN WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX, THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT
THE PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OK WITH THE DRIEST FUELS WILL BE NORTH OF
THE FRONT WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER, HELPING MITIGATE
THE FIRE DANGER HERE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NEAR THE RED RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS
TO THE WEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTHERN OK WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE RICH
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE MILD.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE STALLED NEAR THE
RED RIVER BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A BIT FURTHER NORTH/WEST
POSITIONING WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PERHAPS AS FAR AS
THE I-44 CORRIDOR, WHICH WILL PUT MORE OF OUR AREA IN PLAY FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RISK FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. EXPECT
THE SEVERE THREAT TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE STORMS MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ONCE MORE.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTH.
WARE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST US.
MOST OF THE AREA APPEARS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BEING FORCED BY
WARM ADVECTION OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK DOWN NEAR THE RED
RIVER, BUT OVERALL SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR RATHER LOW GIVEN THE COOL
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE A CONCERN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA DURING
THIS PERIOD, BUT MODEL SPREAD REGARDING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
MAY FALL IS STILL QUITE LARGE. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE DURING
THIS PERIOD, WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S (POTENTIALLY 50S IF RAIN IS WIDESPREAD).
THE TROUGH MAY BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA, WITH SHOWER CHANCES
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY ENDING. A GRADUAL
WARMUP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS AND HOW QUICKLY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET, WIND SHEAR CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH ROUGHLY
10-12Z MONDAY. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE,
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AND VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED, AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 55 76 50 / 0 0 30 10
HOBART OK 90 53 85 50 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 61 92 56 / 0 0 30 10
GAGE OK 79 44 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 80 49 65 45 / 0 0 20 10
DURANT OK 91 67 85 58 / 10 10 70 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...06
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