926
FXUS64 KOUN 062316
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
616 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING & NIGHT.
- HEAT RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE YOU MAKING SURE THE
CALENDAR REALLY DOES SAY "MAY". GENERALLY FILTERED INSOLATION, WITH
A COMBINATION OF BOTH LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS, ALONG WITH MODEST COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL MUTE PEAK TEMPERATURE READINGS OVER THE COMING
HOURS. MID-50S ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
ACROSS WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS ARE FORECAST.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, THOUGH
ANY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (<0.1"). ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, NEAR/BENEATH THE COLD UPPER LOW, MAY
CONTINUE PAST SUNSET TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING
THE INITIAL HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN THE COMING 48 HOURS LOOKS TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-SPRING FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THE CADENCE OF DISSIPATING/CLEARING SKY COVER REMAINS THE
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK ON HOW LOW PREDAWN TEMPERATURES FALL THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH NBM REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE SUITE. HOWEVER, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER, NEAR TO BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AT LEAST ON A
LOCALIZED BASIS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. WHILE CERTAINLY NOT
A "SLAM DUNK", HAVE OPTED TO POST A FROST ADVISORY (3 AM TO 9 AM)
GIVEN THE SEASONALLY ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THIS POTENTIAL.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
WE WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. THE REGIONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BY THIS
TIME BECOMES SOMEWHAT COMPLEX, WITH A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE-TROUGH
PATTERN ESTABLISHING OVER THE CONUS, ALONG WITH A CLOSED UPPER
LOW MEANDERING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
AFTER ANOTHER COLD AND POTENTIALLY FROSTY (NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA)
START TO THE DAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A WARMER DOWNSLOPED AIRMASS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL FOSTER AREAWIDE MID TO UPPER-70S HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO GLIDE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES (LOW-
90S NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT), THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR FRIDAY EVENING, CENTERED
AROUND THE I-44 CORRIDOR. WHILE RATHER MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY SOME, STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING. WHILE IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT MOST REMAIN STORM-FREE
ON FRIDAY, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS WILL WANT TO CHECK BACK OVER
COMING UPDATES.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
AN UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EVIDENT FOR SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WHILE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FRONTS, TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE, AND DEGREE
OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION (I.E., EFFECT ON
INSTABILITY/"CAP"), A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD EMERGE
IF DEEP CONVECTION IS REALIZED ACROSS THE AREA. INTERESTS WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS ON SATURDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK AS DETAILS
CONTINUE TO COME INTO FOCUS.
UNGAR
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY, KICKING US INTO A TRANSITION PERIOD. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW, INCREASING HEAT/MOISTURE, AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING ON SATURDAY NIGHT, MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORM CHANCES
WILL BE REALIZED. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL SOAR 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE USUAL.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS
POSTFRONTAL TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. FROM THERE, THE
SIGNAL CONTINUES TO GROW FOR RIDGING TO APPROACH OUR AREA WITH MUCH,
MUCH HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, THE
SEVERE RISK LOOKS BELOW NORMAL IN THE COMING WEEK, BUT THAT DOESN'T
MEAN THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE ABSOLUTELY ZERO. SOMETHING SIMILAR
COULD BE SAID ABOUT THE FIRE RISK IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WHERE
PROBLEMATIC CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ONE OR MORE DAYS IN THE COMING WEEK.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MOST OF THE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR THIS EVENING, DUA
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. FEW
TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET MAY PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO BACK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 43 75 53 85 / 0 0 0 20
HOBART OK 42 78 52 90 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 46 76 53 87 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 34 78 50 86 / 30 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 39 74 52 85 / 0 0 0 40
DURANT OK 49 73 53 81 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
009>011-014-015.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...23
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