414
FXUS64 KOUN 170653
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
153 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 147 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- SEVERE STORMS, WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE, ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND FRIDAY.
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A FREEZE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING (WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA).
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY.
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL BEGIN
TO BECOME IN FAZE WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE PLAINS. AS OF RIGHT NOW,
IT DOESN'T APPEAR AS THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY
INTO OKLAHOMA UNTIL THE 21Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT WILL INTERSECT ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, CREATING A TRIPLE POINT. THIS ZONE OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCAL POINT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE OPEN WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE
TRIPLE POINT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. INSTABILITY WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG BY THE TIME STORMS
BEGIN TO INITIATE, IN ADDITION TO 40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRYLINE WILL
CONVECT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR INITIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE NORTH OF I-40, TO THE
TRIPLE POINT IN KANSAS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH,
THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ON IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE. IF STORMS CAN FORM, THEY WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER (STP) OF 3-5.
THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ALL HAZARDS. AGAIN, WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE ENVIRONMENT
SOUTH OF I-40 FOR INITIAL CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY LOW-LEVEL
INHIBITION (CAP) DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF BROADER LARGE
SCALE ASCENT.
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE, NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GET RH VALUES DOWN IN TO THE TEENS THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM
FRIDAY.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STORMS
ARE EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO GET UNDERCUT FROM THE COLD FRONT, AND
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO
THE MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY. WINDS OF 20-30 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED,
AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND
GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS,
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY MORNING, WILL BE QUITE COLD. IN FACT, MOST OF
US WILL GET DOWN INTO THE 30S SUNDAY MORNING. IF TRENDS CONTINUE
TO COME IN COLDER SUNDAY MORNING, FREEZE-RELATED PRODUCTS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATING THE PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. OVERALL,
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY WITH HEIGHT RISES AND RIDGING IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
ON MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN OUR NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
ARRIVING THURSDAY WITH STORM POTENTIAL RAMPING BACK UP DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BE A DAY TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR IN THE
COMING DAYS.
BUNKER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS. CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY AND INCREASE IN
SPEED BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT WITH A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (>50 KNOTS) AND LARGE HAIL. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 81 45 64 39 / 40 80 0 0
HOBART OK 88 44 68 36 / 30 50 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 85 49 67 38 / 20 70 10 0
GAGE OK 90 37 66 36 / 30 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 82 42 63 37 / 60 90 0 0
DURANT OK 82 51 65 40 / 10 80 30 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-022.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
OKZ004>007-009>012-014>019-021>025-027>029-033>038-044.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TXZ083>086.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...10
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