106
FXUS64 KOUN 110626
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
126 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
- HOT, WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MIDDLE TO
LATE WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.
- SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST
BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES NEXT SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT YESTERDAY AND CLEARING SKIES, EXPECT A COOL START TO THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER THIS SAME SET UP WILL AID IN A
QUICK WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT, INITIALLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST, BUT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AND SOME MOISTURE RETURN WILL
AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THOSE AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON (HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S). EVEN CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WILL SEE HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION, BUT
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM LAYER
ALOFT AND ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL LIKELY NOT BE SUFFICIENT
TO OVERCOME THE CAP THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. PERHAPS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT
EVEN THERE CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN 10-15%. AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF I-40 TUESDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EASTWARD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A RETURN
OF SOUTH WINDS. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS WEDNESDAY CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE
IN THE 80S.
A FEW OF MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WOULD NOT
BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF WE SEE SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EVEN THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
KEEPS THAT PERIOD DRY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS LEE TROUGHING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, WHICH WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH A LEAD WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME PRECIP TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING FURTHER EAST TO SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME VIRGA ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
ON THURSDAY.
ALSO AT THIS TIME, DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF DRYLINE AND IMPACTS OF
RECENT RAINS ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA'S VEGETATION, SOME ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OUT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN,NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY THEN
LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND A TRANSITION TO MORE SOUTHWEST
FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AND A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY
RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR KDUA EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND
THEN LIFTING TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTH WINDS
BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS EARLY
MORNING NEAR KWWR AND KCSM BUT MINIMAL REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY
ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 55 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 80 55 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 56 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 79 54 95 59 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 53 88 61 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 78 56 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01
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