175
FXUS64 KOUN 011705
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 103 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- HOT, MUGGY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- EXCESSIVE HEATING WILL RETURN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH HEAT
INDICES EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.
- A WETTER TREND BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF
FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
A FAIRLY PERSISTENT FORECAST OF YESTERDAY'S FOR TODAY WITH HOT,
BREEZY, AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SEASONABLY
NORMAL FOR THE 1ST OF JULY. DID GO WARMER THAN NBM MAINLY FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA USING THE CONSSHORT FOR THIS AFTERNOONS MAXT. THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS BETWEEN TWO UPPER SYSTEM FLOWS WITH A DEEP
AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN U.S. AND A CLOSED UPPER
HIGH RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA MAINTAINING BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS WHILE LATE MORNING MIXING TO 850 MB FLOW WILL INCREASE GUSTS
25-30 MPH. DENSE HIGH CLOUDINESS COMING UP FROM OLD MEXICO THROUGH
WEST TEXAS, MUCH OF IT CIRRUS BLOW-OFF WILL DIRTYING UP THE RIDGE
FLOWING INTO OUR AREA KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR WESTERN CWA WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF AFTERNOON SUN.
WE MAY SEE ANOTHER SEVERE STORM COMPLEX INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ON THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVES
EXPELLED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH OVER AND INTERACTING WITH A
SURFACE DRYLINE STRETCHED LEE OF THE NEW MEXICO ROCKIES. FOR NOW
MUCH OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF
OUR CWA OUT ON THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SUBSEQUENT CAMS RUNS SHOULD THEIR SOLUTIONS CHANGE. CAN'T RULE OUT A
FEW OF THESE STORMS TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TOWARD LATE
EVENING AND DECAYING IN LESS UNSTABLE AIR PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME
GUSTY WINDS. AS RESULT WILL HAVE LOW STORM POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING BUT NO SEVERE RISK.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
THURSDAY & FRIDAY MORNINGS WE WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO BREAKING OR
TYING WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE DAILY RECORDS AND BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST COULD TIE AT OKLAHOMA CITY ON THURSDAY MORNING. A
PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AGAIN GOING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NBM ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST CWA USING THE CONSRAW. NO STORM POPS IN
OUR CWA FOR LATE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THERE STILL COULD BE SOME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT ON THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. STILL SEEING A
PATTERN CHANCE ON FRIDAY THAT MAY AFFECT OUR WEEKEND. PRESSURE
HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ON FRIDAY OVER OUR AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
OUT WEST STARTS BREAKING DOWN WITH RIDGING WHILE EXPANDING EASTWARD.
AS A RESULT WE WILL START TRENDING HOTTER ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY OUR
WESTERN CWA WITH HIGHS REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND WITH OUR 2-DAY HEATING TREND PEAKING ON
SATURDAY/INDEPENDENCE DAY. NBM MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM WITH SATURDAYS
TEMPERATURES AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BUT WILL STILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE DIGIT PLUS HEAT INDICES AND A POTENTIAL HEAT
ADVISORY DUE TO EXCESSIVE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA UNTIL
SUNDOWN. EXPECTING THE SURFACE ISOBARS TO WEAKEN A BIT BY SATURDAY
WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT IT'S NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY WINDY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WHICH SHOULD NOT SPOIL
ANY FESTIVITIES AT DUSK. RAIN/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY BUT MOST LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
THE MAIN JET STREAM STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY, A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS
MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS THEN STALLING OUT. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING STORMS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY START BREAKING DOWN IN SPOTS ON SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES INITIATING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE STORM POPS EVERY DAY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THE BEST TIMING FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD CHANCES WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TREND TO A WETTER PATTERN ON SUNDAY WILL BRING
RELIEF FROM SATURDAYS EXCESSIVE HEATING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CATEGORY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF A HIGH CLOUDS
(WEST & CENTRAL) AND AN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF EVENINGTIME CONVECTION MAY
APPROACH TERMINALS ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
IN LONGEVITY PRECLUDES ADDITION OF PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS UPDATE.
SOME RESIDUAL GUSTY WINDS/WIND SHIFT MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE EVEN IF
STORMS DISSIPATE PRIOR TO REACHING THIS AREA NEAR AND AFTER
SUNSET.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 95 77 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 97 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 98 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 94 75 95 75 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 94 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 94 77 93 77 / 0 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...09
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