314
FXUS64 KOUN 220319
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1019 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1012 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
LINGERING CONVECTION HAS BROUGHT WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IT'S ALSO REQUIRED
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND HEAT
HEADLINES. ADDITIONALLY, AN AREA OF GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS RESULTING
FROM THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY OVER HIGHWAY 81 AT THE TIME
OF WRITING, GRADUALLY MIGRATING WESTWARD.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAVE ALREADY
REACHED TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
WON'T GET QUITE AS HOT, BUT DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR
HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL.
FIRE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A CONCERN WITH ELEVATED RFTIS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
OF GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF THIS AREA, POTENTIALLY
COMPLICATING FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
CONVECTION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH CAMS GETTING
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE ABOUT PRODUCING STORMS.
FIRST, SOME EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR OR EAST OF
I-35 (LOWER CHANCES) DRIVEN BY WARM AIR ADVECTION.
SECOND, CAMS ARE PRODUCING AN MCS IN EASTERN KANSAS THAT IS FORECAST
TO DIVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING SOME OF OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES.
THIRD, AS THE MCS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTH AND
DAYTIME HEATING REACHES ITS PEAK, WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES IN THE
AREA WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP WESTWARD,
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40.
THIS ALL MAKES THE HEAT FORECAST COMPLICATED. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY
GET CUT OFF BY OUTFLOW. SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY GET
SHIELDED BY RAIN AND CLOUD COVER (THOUGH SOME OF THAT MAY ARRIVE TOO
LATE IN THE DAY TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE). RIGHT NOW, OUR HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN HEAT IMPACTS IS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH
TEXAS. WE'VE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA, BUT ADDITIONAL
AREAS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS THE MESOSCALE FEATURES COME INTO
GREATER FOCUS.
WE'LL BE WATCHING FIRE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AS WELL. RH DRIVEN ELEVATED RFTIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LIGHT WINDS (OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION) BEING THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER, LIKE TODAY, CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WINDS MAY
COMPLICATE FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS.
RAIN CHANCES COME DOWN ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE EXERTS MORE INFLUENCE
(THOUGH WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT
MAY CHANGE THIS FORECAST). HEAT (SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS) AND FIRE WEATHER (SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS) WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
DAY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY
RETROGRADES BACK WESTWARD. EVEN BY MONDAY THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE
NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW, ALTHOUGH WEAK, TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY BIG CHANGES MONDAY OR TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
AS WE GO INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO OKLAHOMA, BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CURRENTLY WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE OF PRECIP, BEST ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. HOPEFULLY THESE INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER, BUT I DON'T
WANT TO GET TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT.
IN THE WAKE OF WHAT WE HOPE IS SOME PRECIP, SOME COOLER AIR SLIDES
INTO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-40 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
VFR CEILINGS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS A CHANCE (20-30%) FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. E TO SE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. OUTFLOW FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT DIRECTIONS AND/OR SPEED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 104 76 103 / 20 30 10 0
HOBART OK 79 107 76 108 / 10 30 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 80 108 79 109 / 10 30 30 0
GAGE OK 73 98 71 104 / 0 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 94 73 95 / 20 20 10 10
DURANT OK 78 107 77 106 / 20 30 30 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ033-036-037-
044.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25
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