819
FXUS64 KOUN 292014
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
314 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THE FLOW INTENSIFIES, THE STANDING WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO IS LEADING TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH. RETURN FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY REACHING
35 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. UNLIKE THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, THIS
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.
CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND
DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM
THE GULF. THIS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW AND HELP MAINTAIN
A WEAK EML CAP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THERE ARE TWO SPOTS WHERE
CONVECTION INITIATION LOOKS PLAUSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNSET TOMORROW
NIGHT. THE FIRST IS WITHIN THE DRYLINE REGION OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND POTENTIALLY SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HERE, SHORT-RANGE MODELS DEPICT
GREATER INSOLATION ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID-70S AND A
NEAR-COMPLETE EROSION OF MLCIN. HOWEVER, THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE
FIRMLY WITHIN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
JET. THEREFORE, SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO TAMP DOWN STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN LIEU OF A STRONG CAP. OVERALL CHANCES FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ARE LOW. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP, WIND
PROFILES STRONGLY SUGGEST DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELIER BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW IN
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. HERE, DEEP MOIST ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM NOSE TO DEVELOP WITH
ABOUT 1000-1500 MUCAPE ABOVE IT. MODELS ARE FAIRLY INSISTENT IN
SHOWING A LEAD STJ WAVE PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR SHOWERS AND
EVENTUALLY STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, BUT THE OVERALL GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE A
WETTING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF FRIDAY'S FIRE WEATHER.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023
STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS BACK INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A STRONGER CAP
WILL BUILD BACK IN AROUND MIDNIGHT AREA-WIDE, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A
LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE HEART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AFTER
THAT, THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP EASTWARD WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC WAVE. HREF MEMBERS DEPICT THE RAPID
DESTRUCTION OF MLCIN AS THE CAP QUICKLY GETS LIFTED ALONG I-35 JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK. SO FAR, THOSE SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE A BIT BASHFUL
IN ACTUALLY RESOLVING CONVECTION WITHIN THAT UNCAPPED CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER, THE TTU WRF SHOWS CI OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE OKC
METRO BETWEEN 7:00 AND 9:00 A.M, WITH A SQUALL LINE QUICKLY
DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY AN EMBEDDED TORNADO THREAT WOULD
BE POSSIBLE IF THE TTU WRF IS MORE CORRECT THAN THE HREF AND STORMS
REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY NOON WITH A PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL WAVE ALLOWING STRONG
WINDS TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A SITUATION
WHERE THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL DEPART ABOUT 3 HOURS TOO EARLY FOR
DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TO BE COLLOCATED. HOWEVER,
WITH A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO OR ABOVE 50 MPH BY NOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. FIRE WEATHER WILL RAPIDLY
ESCALATE INTO THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AFTER THE
LLTR DEPARTS BY MIDAFTERNOON. THE BEST OVERLAP OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS AND THE DRIEST FUELS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH
AND EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAIN MAY MITIGATE
THE ENVIRONMENT FROM REALIZING FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER.
A BRIEF INTRUSION OF COLDER AIR WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE WINDS RAPIDLY SHIFT BACK AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS YET ANOTHER
WAVE APPROACHES. DRY RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON
SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AREA-WIDE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A PERIOD WHERE EITHER
HAZARDOUS SEVERE OR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER ARE REALIZED, DEPENDING
ON THE PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES SUCH AS THE DRYLINE. ANOTHER
EXTREMELY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY. A BEST GUESS NOW SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE LOW-END SEVERE
CHANCES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35, WHILE A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE AREA WILL SEE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ONCE MORE ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY, AS FUELS MAY HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT BEFORE THEN.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH, WITH WINDS BECOMING
STRONG DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DECREASING OVERNIGHT, AND
BECOMING STRONG AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.
LOWER CEILINGS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING INTO THE
REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 49 66 59 73 / 0 20 60 30
HOBART OK 47 69 55 74 / 0 10 40 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 51 70 62 75 / 0 20 50 20
GAGE OK 45 70 50 70 / 0 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 46 69 58 74 / 0 10 50 20
DURANT OK 51 68 61 80 / 0 50 50 60
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ004>030-033>038-044.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083>089.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...50
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