016  
FXUS64 KOUN 190351  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
1051 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024  
 
LOW END FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TREND ARE THE TWO  
HEADLINES FOR THE SHORT TERM. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE MOVES OUT AND  
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH REGION TONIGHT GRADUALLY SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF  
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH CLEAR NIGHT SKIES, WINDS  
SHOULD IMPEDE STRONG RADIATIONAL MEASURABLE COOLING BUT IT PLACE  
THERE WILL BE A WIND CHILL. WE WILL STILL HAVE A FINAL COLD NIGHT  
IN THE 30S WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHILE  
VERY DRY AIR SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FROST. HOWEVER, WIND CHILL VALUES  
WILL MAKE IT FEEL IN THE 20S TONIGHT. WHILE A CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES  
TO SPIN OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST, AN RIDGE IN THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL  
WESTERLIES START BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.  
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER THE RIDGING  
AND SUNNY SKIES WILL START A WARMING TREND AS OUR TEMPERATURES RISE  
ABOVE CLIMATICALLY AVERAGE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ALTHOUGH WE  
WILL SEE SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO MUCH OF OUR AREA,  
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MAY RESULT IN LOWER AFTERNOON RH  
VALUES ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE DRY AIR AND WARMER  
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH GUSTY (25-30 MPH) SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BE  
SUFFICIENT TO ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHERE GROUND FUELS/VEGETATION REMAINS DRY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024  
 
A BIT WARMER WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER THE EXITING RIDGE WITH LOWS IN  
THE 40S. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF SYSTEM GETS RECAPTURED BY THE  
STRONGER POLAR JET FLOW AND STARTS DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.  
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES BY  
WEDNESDAY INTO OUR AREA SHARPENING UP A DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS  
UP THROUGH THE TEXAS/OK PANHANDLES.  
 
THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COLDER PACIFIC AIR  
ALOFT COMING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL START DESTABILIZING MUCH OF OUR  
AREA FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE WEATHER ALONG WITH RAIN WITH THE  
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS HAS A BULLSEYE  
OF UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
PANHANDLES THROUGH MUCH OF OUR WESTERN CWA ALTHOUGH OVERALL SHEAR  
IS WEAK. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND  
SETTLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A  
WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEARLY ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE LINES.  
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS STARTS INCREASING IN THE  
AFTERNOON, OUR BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID-LEVELS MAY STAY MIXED AND  
UNCAPPED FOR SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION WITH ADDITIONAL ELEVATED  
STORMS/RAIN WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT FROM THE TROUGH AS SEEN IN THE  
VORTICITY & OMEGA FIELDS. WILL HAVE STORM POPS GENERALLY WEST AND  
NORTH OF I-44 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR  
SEVERE STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS  
WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE INSTABILITY COULD BE NEAR MODERATE IN THE  
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEAK  
SHEAR WOULD KEEP ANY STORMS FROM ORGANIZING AND BECOMING SUPERCELLS  
BUT A FEW STORMS COULD PULSE UP LOW-END SEVERE WITH UP TO QUARTER  
SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS POTENTIAL HAZARDS. POPS  
INCREASE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE  
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH MOSTLY SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK  
ELEVATED STORMS. BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING, THE STALLED COLD FRONT  
STARTS PUSHING THROUGH MAINTAINING RAIN/STORM POPS IN OUR AREA. NEAR  
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHCENTRAL  
OKLAHOMA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE  
COLD FRONT, SO CANNOT RULE OUT A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOW END  
SEVERE STORMS IN THAT AREA. POPS END IN OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS  
THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO THE EAST.  
 
ON FRIDAY, A CANADIAN SYSTEM PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH BOTH GFS & ECMWF NOW CONSISTENT WITH TIMING.  
HOWEVER MODELS NOT CONSISTENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR  
SURGES WITH THE GFS AND MEX GUIDANCE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT  
AND COOLER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE 1000-850 MPH  
CRITICAL THICKNESS LINE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. FOR NOW WILL STICK  
WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF AND WARMER NBM GUIDANCE IN THE  
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHTS MINT AND SATURDAY'S MAXT ALTHOUGH IT  
COULD CHANGE. WILL KEEP LOW (20-30%) RAIN/STORM POPS ACROSS  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY DUE TO A POTENTIAL  
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH OUR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS  
RETURN ON SUNDAY WHILE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS A  
LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE  
COUNTRY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES INCREASING WIDESPREAD INTO  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE COULD SEE A BRIEF SURGE OF COLD  
WINTERLIKE CANADIAN AIR BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK  
PERHAPS MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024  
 
VFR ARE STILL EXPECTED TO APPLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES  
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SSW WINDS WITH  
SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AFTER 18Z TUE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY  
ALSO SNEAK IN AFTER THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 54 36 72 47 / 0 0 0 0  
HOBART OK 58 35 71 44 / 0 0 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 59 36 71 46 / 0 0 0 0  
GAGE OK 59 38 75 41 / 0 0 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 51 33 76 44 / 0 0 0 0  
DURANT OK 57 33 69 45 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...68  
LONG TERM....68  
AVIATION...03  
 
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