848
FXUS64 KOUN 271900
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 155 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED BEGINNING TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE COOLING DOWN MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL RESULT IN A NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. THE HOTTEST WEATHER WILL BE NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S DEG F.
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MID TO UPPER
80S DEG F. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE-
NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (~1.80 INCHES) AND
WEAK/NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON (ESSENTIALLY NEAR AND JUST EAST OF
THE SURFACE LOW). CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
ARE THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S
DEG F. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING, PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED (>1.70 INCHES).
POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
BY TUESDAY, A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE WITH THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO CLOSE-OFF INTO
A CUTOFF LOW. WITH THE SYSTEM CLOSING-OFF AND SLOWING DOWN, THE
MOST APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT (AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES)
WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN THE COOLEST WEATHER ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 80S DEG F. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE
ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON (FOR LATE SEPTEMBER) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S DEG F.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
MODELS ARE IN DESCENT AGREEMENT AS WE GO THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO THE CLOSED
LOW MAKING A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION. ALONG WITH ALREADY PRESENT
PLUME OF MOISTURE, THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO WILL GET PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM AS WELL, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY AND
FLOODING RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
TO GO ALONG WITH THE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOW/MID 80S FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, OUTSIDE OF THE LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES
THROUGH A TERMINAL COULD HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
OTHERWISE, A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
WILL KEEP THE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR MOST OF US.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 90 71 90 / 10 20 0 30
HOBART OK 67 92 71 89 / 0 0 10 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 97 72 96 / 10 10 0 10
GAGE OK 62 85 65 80 / 10 10 20 80
PONCA CITY OK 64 83 66 83 / 10 10 10 60
DURANT OK 69 94 71 96 / 30 30 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...13
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