185
FXUS64 KOUN 081739
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
- UNSEASONABLY HOT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THIS TREND ENDING TUESDAY
- DRY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A 15-20% CHANCE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY
- RAIN & STORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH COOLER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR 60 TONIGHT FOR LOWS.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
THE PATTERN STAYS STATIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S / LOWER 90S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS A BIT BREEZIER IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
ON SUNDAY, THE REMNANTS OF "ISAIAS" IS EXPECTED TO BE TRACKING UP
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. THE CIRCULATION FROM THIS POST-
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE BUILDING A RIDGE UPSTREAM/WESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL RESULT IN HOTTER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OUR AREA COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S FOR SUNDAY & MONDAY AND WARMER NIGHTS WHICH WILL BE NEAR RECORD-
BREAKING FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
MAIN JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MAY PUSH THE FIRST
OF TWO COLD FRONTS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH THE LATTER
MUCH STRONGER AT THE END OF THE WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE FIRST FRONT WITH THE
ECMWF & NBM PUSHING IT INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT OUT UP IN
KANSAS. BASED ON THE FIRST SOLUTION, MUCH OF OUR AREA COULD SEE A
SLIGHT COOL-DOWN TUESDAY FROM HOT TO STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALTHOUGH OUR SOUTHWEST CWA COULD STAY
HOT. THERE IS ALSO A 15-20% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED RAIN ON TUESDAY
WITH THIS FIRST POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN & STORM CHANCES
INCREASE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE PACIFIC-
BASED SYSTEM STARTS DIGGING ACROSS THE U.S. SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 61 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 92 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 61 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 61 89 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 62 90 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...01
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