118
FXUS64 KOUN 182145
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 443 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- THERE IS A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH COOLER WEATHER
BY TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
WINDY WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS OUR FAR WEST AND SEVERE
RISKS FOR STORMS ARE THE HEADLINES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT'S PERIOD.
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOO
MUCH TODAY AS WE COULD SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH AS WE
CONTINUE TO MIX HIGHER INTO THE JET. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LEE OF
THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH SOUTH WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20-25 MPH. AS A RESULT OUR
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
AREAS GENERALLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. A DRYLINE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN CWA IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ONE-TIER OF OUR COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN
TEXAS. AS A RESULT THE FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL WILL BE INCREASING NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL RISK WEST OF THE DRYLINE DUE TO VERY LOW
AFTERNOON RH'S EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND HOT
TEMPERATURES OVER STILL DRY VEGETATION. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THAT ONE-TIER OF
COUNTIES WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
AS FAR AS STORMS, THERE IS A 20-25% PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTION
FIRING UP ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST DIURNAL HEATING ERODING THE MID-LEVEL CAP. SHOULD ANY
STORMS INITIATE THEY WOULD BE GROWING IN STRONGLY UNSTABLE (3000-
5000 J/KG) ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE WEAK THIS
AFTERNOON IN OUR AREA BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ALTHOUGH THE
OVERALL HIGHEST SEVERE RISK WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THE RISK WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN
ENHANCED RISK ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO A SLIGHT RISK COVERING ALL
BUT OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. SHOULD ANY DRYLINE CONVECTION INITIATE
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A TORNADO WITH THAT
RISK HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
STORM POPS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT UP TO 80% WITH A COLD FRONT COMING
DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
EVENING PUSHING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TODAYS SEVERE RISKS AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS
WILL BE REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR TONIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT & STORM ACTIVITY TO BE
NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST. STORM
POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH UP 60-90% ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE REMAINING
MORNING HOURS BUT MORE RESTRICTED TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EXITING OUR AREA. THE
SEVERE RISK REMAINS ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE HAIL & WIND HAZARDS REMAINING ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE
VERY LOW. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH LIGHTER NORTH WINDS ADVECTING MUCH COOLER AIR DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE COOLEST AIR MAY LAG REACHING
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND OUR TEXAS COUNTIES FOR A DAY, THE REMAINDER
OF OUR AREA WILL SEE MILDER UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH THE MUGGY AIR RESTRICTED TO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH OUR AREA WILL BE POST-FRONTAL BY TUESDAY EVENING,
THE MAIN SYSTEMS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OPENED ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES
EXPELLED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EACH DAY PRODUCING
ELEVATED-BASED CONVECTION. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE STORM CHANCES TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, THE NAM SUGGESTS THESE ELEVATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SEVERE HAIL & WINDS OVERNIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY ALL OF OUR AREA WILL FEEL MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S BECOMING CHILLY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S AND STORM CHANCES AGAIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM (STJ) WITH SUBTLE WAVES LIFTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS NO DAY THAT HAS AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE MAY.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 443 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY, AS WILL REDUCED CEILINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITION STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN AFFECTING ANY TAF SITE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 70 55 71 / 60 40 60 30
HOBART OK 60 72 54 73 / 60 20 50 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 81 58 76 / 20 80 70 40
GAGE OK 49 72 46 70 / 20 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 58 69 52 70 / 80 20 30 10
DURANT OK 74 84 64 78 / 10 90 60 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-014-
021-033-034.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>027-
034>038.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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