784
FXUS64 KOUN 210846
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
346 AM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019
DISCUSSION
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN KS AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO WANE APPROACHING SUNRISE, AS FORCING REMAINS VERY LIMITED UNDER
THE RIDGE. SOME CLOUD DEBRIS WILL LINGER OVER THIS AREA THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING KEEPING TEMPS FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY BUT BY THIS
AFTERNOON, LITTLE WILL REMAIN. PREFRONTAL WARMING SHOULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG I44.
MOST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO REDUCE THEIR QPF OUTPUT THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH THE COLD FRONT LIKELY DUE TO LOW MID TO UPPER
MOISTURE AND BROAD SCALE ASCENT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN OK THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THIS
AREA IS BEGINNING TO LOOK BLEAK. DECIDED TO KEEP HIGH CHANCES EAST
OF I-35 DURING THIS TIME BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THEY'RE
REDUCED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE RED RIVER BY MON 18Z AND MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW IT. TEMPS WILL DROP WELL BELOW AVERAGE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, AND NEAR RECORD LOWS (UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S) ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE BY WED MORNING UNDER THE
SURFACE RIDGE. THE TREND THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WARMING TEMPS, ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO
RETURN WITH THE GULF "SHUT-OFF" FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME SO
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HEAT HEADLINES FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW, SCHC
POPS HAVE LIMITED TO NW OK FOR SUN MORNING AS CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW WITH THIS FEATURE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 75 88 66 / 10 30 30 10
HOBART OK 101 74 88 65 / 10 20 20 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 100 76 93 69 / 0 20 20 20
GAGE OK 98 68 83 58 / 30 30 30 0
PONCA CITY OK 98 72 84 63 / 20 50 50 0
DURANT OK 97 74 93 70 / 0 20 20 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ007-008-013-020-026.
TX...NONE.
06/03
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