143
FXUS64 KOUN 170408
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1108 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- HOT WEDNESDAY, THEN BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
- INCREASED WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS (THE HRRR BEING THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION)
DEVELOP A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY 00Z.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT CIN IS WEAKENING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE. GIVEN
MESOANALYSIS TRENDS AND THE SIGNAL ON MOST MODELS, WE DO EXPECT
SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL AND/OR WIND. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MID
TO LATE EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WEDNESDAY IN A WORD: HOT. THE HEAT RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES AREAWIDE. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 105 AND 110 IN A BROAD AREA FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
TOMORROW, SO WE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. BUT
THIS HEAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA. THURSDAY HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON
THE WARM SIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS UNTIL THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER IN NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
ALONG WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS MAY BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, ALTHOUGH IT IS MORE LIKELY WE
WILL START SEEING DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY EVENING. AGAIN
INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A
BROADER AREA ON THURSDAY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING HAIL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM
AND OPERATIONAL GFS HINT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES WHICH DEVELOPS MORE MODEL QPF, WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWS SHOWERS/STORMS DECREASING OVER THE AREA
AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE WILL KEEP POPS
PRETTY HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT THIS POINT, BUT WATCH THE TRENDS
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WITH COOLER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE 80S, EVEN ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS.
MOST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH PERHAPS A ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WITH WARMING TREND. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNS TO PORTIONS
OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT
INDICES.
ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING KDUA.
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KDUA WITH MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
(LLJ), RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY
FROM THE SOUTH. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT KWWR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 73 98 76 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 93 73 102 75 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 73 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 93 73 104 72 / 30 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 91 74 99 73 / 20 20 10 30
DURANT OK 88 74 92 77 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ005>008-
011>013-015>025-027-033>039-044-045.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...10
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