180
FXUS64 KOUN 172329
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
529 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG RETURNS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER RISK ACROSS PARTS OF OUR
AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- WARMING TREND PEAKS ON SATURDAY WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ON EVERY DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
VISIBILITIES WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD HAVE ANY ISSUES GETTING INTO THE UPPER 50S.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD,
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE
TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR FOG (POTENTIALLY
DENSE AT TIMES) TO RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS OF RIGHT NOW, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
AND DURATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO ADDITIONAL FOG PRODUCTS
WILL NOT BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BUNKER
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING.
WINDS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE GUSTY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA -- WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE
DAY. DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, FOSTERING AFTERNOON
RHS MINIMUMS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST AND INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. WITH THESE LOW RHS, COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS, ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH BREEZY WINDS RETURNING FRIDAY. A DRY RETURN FLOW
PATTERN IS FAVORED FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, SO RHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS AT LEAST THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA.
BUNKER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
OUR UPPER FLOW NEAR ZONAL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH MILD
CALIFORNIA PACIFIC-BASED AIR OVERHEAD. OUR WARMING TREND EXPECTED
TO PEAK ON SATURDAY WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER.
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE
DANGER RISK SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WHERE THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEATHER SYSTEM
TRAINING ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A BIT MORE ROBUST
COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY YET TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGING STARTS BUILDING IN TUESDAY
RESTARTING A STRONG WARMING TREND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
MVFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
(KSWO AND KPNC) FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS (BOTH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES) WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KDUA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. A STRENGTHENING
50 TO 55 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) AT MOST TERMINALS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, NORTHERLY LLWS IS POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY BY MID MORNING.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 46 57 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 42 60 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 45 64 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 38 56 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 44 57 27 57 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 55 64 33 60 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...10
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