836
FXUS64 KOUN 171125
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
DISCUSSION
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
SPS SHOULD BE THE ONLY TERMINAL TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD STAY AROUND 050-100.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH OVER SPS LATER TODAY AND PERSIST,
WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVER MOST OF OK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHEN THEY BECOME MORE EASTERLY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018/
DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR TODAY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS/VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW (DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED-LOW) WILL PROVIDE ASCENT.
THE CLOSED-LOW, CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S., IS FORECAST
TO OPEN UP THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ONCE THE LOW OPENS UP, IT WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
SPREADING FARTHER NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PRECLUDES THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
WAVE MOVES EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATES WITH THE TROUGH. THE
ATTENDANT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL PASS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS WIND
SHIFT ON SATURDAY. MOST LOCATIONS ARE ACTUALLY FORECASTER TO BE
WARMER WITH MORE INSOLATION. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A SUBTLE PERTURBATION MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
OF RAIN MAY BE AT JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE, BUT AT LEAST A
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS WARRANTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 50 57 50 / 10 20 50 70
HOBART OK 61 49 54 49 / 20 40 60 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 55 50 57 50 / 60 60 70 70
GAGE OK 62 47 52 47 / 10 20 50 50
PONCA CITY OK 66 44 59 48 / 0 0 30 70
DURANT OK 60 53 60 51 / 60 40 50 60
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
99/99/03
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