567
FXUS64 KOUN 242334
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
- RECORD HEAT LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- COOLER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES EXTREMELY LOW FOR ANOTHER WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE DIDN'T
NEED RAIN SO BADLY, THIS WOULD BE CONSIDERED A NICE DAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOMEWHAT TOMORROW, AS THE 90S RETURN.
RECORD HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AT ALL 3 LONG TERM CLIMATE
SITES ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30 ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN, AND
THERE IS ALREADY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR A BIG CHUNK OF
THE AREA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO OVER
30 MPH, AND A FEW GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH. THIS WILL BE AT THE SAME
TIME OF RH VALUES LESS THAN 20%, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE TO MOVE
THROUGH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LIKE MOST
SPRING TIME COLD FRONTS, THIS ONE WILL HAVE EQUALLY STRONG WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR A FEW HOURS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
EASY WAY TO WRITE THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS "NO RAIN." WHILE THAT
WOULD BE TRUE THROUGH MONDAY, IT DOESN'T QUITE GIVE THE FULL
STORY. SO, GOING BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST, THINGS ARE BEGINNING
TO LOOK BETTER AND BETTER FOR A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION BY NEARLY ALL ACCOUNTS, AND THERE
REMAINS SOME HOPE FOR RAINFALL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
BEFORE THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF
OCCASIONAL HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THURSDAY WILL BE THE NEXT MAIN CONCERN, AS
WINDY, DRY, AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. GOING A BIT DEEPER,
WE HAVE A FEW THINGS CONSPIRING WITHIN THIS PATTERN:
* FUELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY AND CURED. EVEN WITH SOME MINIMAL
HUMIDITY RECOVERY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE FUELS REMAIN
RIPE. ERC VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 85TH-95TH PERCENTILE
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE IN THE +30 DEGREE RANGE WITH THE
RECORD HIGHS FORECAST.
* RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
USHER IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY, BEFORE DROPPING FURTHER.
* SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG, ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A JET
STREAK AT 850MB WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAAST THROUGH THE
DAY, ALLOWING FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 45 MPH FOR AN EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 59 91 65 92 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 56 93 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 59 93 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 51 94 61 99 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 53 91 65 94 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 60 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ004>031-033>040-044.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ083>088.
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...08
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