168
FXUS64 KOUN 091904
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
204 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 203 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT AND AT LEAST A MODERATE HEAT RISK.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ELEVATED CONDITIONS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER CONTINUE TO BE THE CURRENT ISSUES. AS OF
130 PM, TEMPERATURES ARE UP TO 105-108 ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HUMIDITY IS DOWN BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WITH GUSTY WINDS CREATING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECT SOME AREAS OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
SO BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES POKES A LITTLE
MORE INTO OKLAHOMA WITH HEIGHTS RISING A DECAMETER OR TWO
TOMORROW. TYPICALLY THIS WOULD GIVE THE EXPECTATION OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST WE WILL
HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOMORROW. SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
MORE LATENT HEATING AS OPPOSED TO QUITE AS MUCH SENSIBLE HEATING,
SO FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR MAYBE JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN TODAY. OF COURSE WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
TODAY, SO A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AS WELL.
TUESDAY LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR AGAIN AND HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE
LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE HANGING ONTO THE RIDGE A BIT LONGER WITH MAXT
INTERQUARTILE SPREADS NOT INCREASING UNTIL FRIDAY (MEANING HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY THROUGH THURSDAY). WE'RE ALSO SEEING A
NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE UPPER SYSTEMS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK, REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
PRIMARILY BE FROM THE SOUTH, BUT MAY VEER AND BACK ANYWHERE FROM
160 TO 210 THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL, SHOULD BE GREAT CONDITIONS
TO FLY IN!
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 101 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 76 104 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 102 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 74 104 74 104 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 77 103 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 76 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ004>048-
050>052.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-
009>011-014>016-021-022.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...13
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