836  
FXUS64 KOUN 171125  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
625 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
SPS SHOULD BE THE ONLY TERMINAL TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS BY THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD STAY AROUND 050-100.  
SOME SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH OVER SPS LATER TODAY AND PERSIST,  
WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE OVER MOST OF OK. WINDS WILL  
GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING WHEN THEY BECOME MORE EASTERLY.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 327 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
FOR TODAY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE,  
PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  
SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS/VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY MID-  
LEVEL FLOW (DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED-LOW) WILL PROVIDE ASCENT.  
 
THE CLOSED-LOW, CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S., IS FORECAST  
TO OPEN UP THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ONCE THE LOW OPENS UP, IT WILL  
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME  
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  
 
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS  
SPREADING FARTHER NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE  
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY  
PRECLUDES THE MENTION OF THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE  
WAVE MOVES EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATES WITH THE TROUGH. THE  
ATTENDANT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL PASS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS WIND  
SHIFT ON SATURDAY. MOST LOCATIONS ARE ACTUALLY FORECASTER TO BE  
WARMER WITH MORE INSOLATION. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED  
ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TO THE  
SOUTHWEST WITH THE DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
A SUBTLE PERTURBATION MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY WITH A  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE  
OF RAIN MAY BE AT JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS  
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE, BUT AT LEAST A  
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS WARRANTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
MAHALE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 50 57 50 / 10 20 50 70  
HOBART OK 61 49 54 49 / 20 40 60 60  
WICHITA FALLS TX 55 50 57 50 / 60 60 70 70  
GAGE OK 62 47 52 47 / 10 20 50 50  
PONCA CITY OK 66 44 59 48 / 0 0 30 70  
DURANT OK 60 53 60 51 / 60 40 50 60  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
99/99/03  
 
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