833  
FXUS64 KOUN 151050  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
550 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 1230 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM  
 
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS TODAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT DAY OF MID TO UPPER  
80S BY THE AFTERNOON. LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LEAD TO  
A DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT  
OF THE SOUTH AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, SHOULD  
BE A NICE DAY IF HAVE TO BE OUTSIDE.  
 
BUNKER  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
LOWER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL  
TROUGH OUT WEST HELPS TO PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE  
EAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN  
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE  
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL  
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE COMING INTO  
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM.  
THE IMPLICATIONS THAT THIS WILL HAVE ON OUR AREA WILL BE MORE  
POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES, BUT ALSO A NON ZERO CHANCE AT  
SEVERE WEATHER. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL  
BE IN PLACE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST  
STORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  
 
BUNKER  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO  
EAST SATURDAY AS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. A  
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT  
INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.  
 
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH  
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE ROCKIES PROMOTES  
WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
RELATIVELY DRY, SO WE WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY WITH 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WIND  
GUSTS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.  
 
BUNKER  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE DURING THE UPCOMING PERIOD  
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SOUTHEAST BREEZE.  
 
SAFE TRAVELS!  
 
UNGAR  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 59 83 63 / 0 0 0 0  
HOBART OK 86 57 85 63 / 0 0 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 86 57 86 63 / 0 0 0 0  
GAGE OK 82 57 81 60 / 0 0 0 10  
PONCA CITY OK 86 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0  
DURANT OK 86 58 86 63 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...13  
SHORT TERM...13  
LONG TERM....13  
AVIATION...09  
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