677
FXUS64 KOUN 121736
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- REMAINING UNSEASONABLY HOT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH COOLER/MORE
"FALL-LIKE" TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING EXISTS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, IT WILL BE A DRY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS OUR AREA. STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE TX PANHANDLE
WITHIN A MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT LATE TODAY. WITH THAT
SAID, THE ENTIRE SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY CONVECTION WEST OF
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, AND THUS NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES WERE
INCLUDED (WE ESTIMATE THE CHANCE OF ANY RAIN MAKING IT INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 1 IN 10 AND 1 IN 20).
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE REMARKABLY WARM FOR MID-OCTOBER. WE EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN OCTOBER TO BE IN THE LOW 50S, NOT THE LOW 70S LIKE
THEY WILL BE. THIS IS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE ENHANCED TROPICAL
MOISTURE FETCH. A SURGE OF 70+ DEWPOINTS WILL OCCUR INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT AS FAR NORTH AS PONCA CITY.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER INCREASES QUITE A BIT IN THE
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. RECORD HEAT, SEVERE WEATHER, AND
FLOODING ARE ALL WITHIN THE RANGE OF PROBABLE OUTCOMES.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A DEEP, HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS PWATS RANGING FROM 1.4
TO 2.1 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT
DAYBREAK. IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE DEPTH OF THE HUMID LAYER WILL
MAKE DIURNAL MIXING INEFFICIENT AND REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WHAT HIGHER-END MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. EVEN
WITH THAT, 500 MB HEIGHTS AT 5,900 METERS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AS WELL AS GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL BRING POTENTIAL RECORD-BREAKING HEAT TO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
GET INTO THE UPPER 80S AREA-WIDE WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS (SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS) EASILY REACHING INTO THE MID-90S.
THE TROUGH'S APPROACH LATE TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION OUR CONCERNS FROM
HEAT TO PRECIPITATION. CONVECTION INITIATION IS EXPECTED IN TWO
REGIMES:
1) ALONG A SEMI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN KANSAS,
THOUGH A SMALL ERROR IN FRONTAL LOCATION COULD PUT THIS STORM ZONE
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
2) ALONG THE DRYLINE, WHICH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.
SHEAR PROFILES LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION INTO SUPERCELLS WITH ABOUT 50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. GIVEN HOW HUMID THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL BE, THOSE
SUPERCELLS AREN'T LIKELY TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL (THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING
PONG BALLS) AND MAY SHOW MORE WARM-RAIN PROCESSES. THE NATURAL
TENDENCY WOULD THEN BE TO ASSUME HP SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS, WHICH CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE AGREES WITH. THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY THE HUMIDITY OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER (LOWER DCAPE VALUES THAN WE'VE SEEN MOST OF THE
SUMMER/FALL), WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY
THE TENDENCY OF STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE, WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES,
AND SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ALL IN ALL, IT'S NOT A
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY ONE SEVERE RISK. WITH
THAT SAID, THE NEAR-CERTAINTY OF STORMS, THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
PRESENCE, AND THE SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR WILL MAKE IT LIKELY THAT WE
DO SEE SEVERE STORMS IN THE EVENING.
THE INITIAL WAVE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING,
THOUGH THERE IS A PRETTY STRONG INDICATION ON 12Z CAM SUITES THAT IT
WILL WEAKEN. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR EITHER LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD OUT OF KANSAS AND A MILD LLJ KICKS UP NEAR THE 100TH
MERIDIAN. THIS NEXT WAVE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY CARRY A LOWER SEVERE
RISK DUE TO ITS ANAFRONTAL NATURE. WITH THAT SAID, THE INGREDIENTS
ARE COMING INTO PLACE ON WEDNESDAY FOR A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST
CORRIDOR SOMEWHERE TO RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ON THE ORDER OF 2-5 INCHES. IT'S NOT
CLEAR YET EXACTLY WHERE THIS AXIS WILL SET UP. NAM/RRFS GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT WE OFTEN
SEE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE ISN'T PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH IN MOVING THE
INITIATING FRONT SOUTHWARD, AND QPF FORECASTS AT THIS RANGE HAVE A
TOO-FAR-NORTHWEST BIAS. IF A SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT OCCURS HERE, THE I-
44 CORRIDOR AND LAWTON/OKLAHOMA CITY/STILLWATER CORRIDORS WILL BE AT
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITHOUT
THAT SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT, WE WILL BE WATCHING THE
WEATHERFORD/ENID/PONCA CITY REGION.
THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LOWER WEDNESDAY ROUGHLY FROM I-44
NORTHWESTWARD. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
THE PASSAGE OF A RATHER NOTABLE FALL FRONT IS BEGINNING TO FOCUS ON
THURSDAY, AS THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER/LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY, SLOWLY
ABATING FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH AFTER NIGHTFALL. IT IS LIKELY THAT
OUR CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ON THURSDAY CONTINUE TO TUMBLE (ESP.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ONE-HALF OF OKLAHOMA) AS A MORE REFINED
FRONTAL TIMING, AND DEGREE OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN AND CLOUDS, COMES
INTO CLEARER VIEW.
THINGS TURN DRIER AND BEGIN TO FEEL MORE "CLASSICALLY FALL" BY
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
BECOMING MORE PROBABLE.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG WITH
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT AT KDUA WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY MID
MORNING TUESDAY, MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 92 73 82 / 0 0 40 100
HOBART OK 73 93 71 81 / 0 20 60 100
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 93 74 88 / 0 0 30 70
GAGE OK 71 90 66 76 / 0 30 60 90
PONCA CITY OK 72 93 70 78 / 0 0 70 100
DURANT OK 74 88 75 89 / 0 10 10 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...08
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