422
FXUS64 KOUN 051954
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
254 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 254 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DOWNDRAFT CAPE IN ANALYZED BETWEEN
1000 AND 1400 J/KG IN THE SOUTHWEST SUPPORTING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
AND THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG WINDS, ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL STILL BE A
THREAT WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, SO MANY INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS MAY NOT BE
THE MOST PERSISTENT, BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND STORMS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS THIS EVENING
WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE COLD FRONT AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS EVENING'S
STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AND WHILE THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS IS NOT COLD BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION, IT
QUALIFIES AS "NOT-AS-HOT" AND HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 95-100 RANGE AS OPPOSED TO THE
100-105 RANGE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION IN THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW, BUT OVERALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
BY MIDWEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALI. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND WARM DOWNSLOPING ADIABATIC HEATING. THUS, WIDESPREAD
NEAR TO ABOVE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, DRIVEN BY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN
THE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES TO OKLAHOMA, ESPECIALLY WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BOTH DAYS.
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS MAY BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX, MAINLY IMPACTING KDUA
AND KSPS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF STORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 94 71 96 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 68 96 71 98 / 20 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 97 72 99 / 30 0 0 10
GAGE OK 66 95 69 97 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 69 89 70 90 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 73 94 73 95 / 20 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08
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