648
FXUS64 KOUN 150349
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1049 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- COOL, BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK BEFORE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS.
- INCREASED WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS THIS MORNING AND MOST OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORM ACTIVITY NOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WEAK WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY OR SHEAR. COULD A FEW AREAS SEE A
BRIEF SPRINKLE OF RAIN? YES. WILL MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY? YES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH COOLER, BELOW NORMAL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND LOWER 80S.
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, MOSTLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION AT THE SURFACE, BUT THERE
IS PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD REACH THE SURFACE FOR A
BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY
AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST MONDAY WITH
SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS BREAKING THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
PEEKS OF SUNSHINE DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH DIGS
INTO THE OZARKS, LIGHT NORTHEAST EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE COME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE LATER MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
WILL INITIATE STORMS, BUT WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND INSTABILITY,
STORMS MAY WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING WESTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, IF
STORMS CAN MAINTAIN EASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA, STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TUESDAY WITH ADIABATIC WARMING
BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MAY BRING INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SOUTH WINDS RETURN IN EARNEST WEDNESDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. ANOTHER SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER PROLIFERATING OFF OF THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD
REMAIN WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 5,000 FEET ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
TONIGHT. LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-40, PARTICULARLY
IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, WHICH WILL LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 62 81 62 / 50 10 10 0
HOBART OK 78 61 84 62 / 40 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 84 64 84 64 / 40 20 20 0
GAGE OK 76 57 82 61 / 10 10 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 76 59 79 61 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 84 67 81 66 / 100 50 30 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04
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