555
FXUS64 KOUN 102320
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
620 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 618 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORM EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 IN THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE PRIMARY DRIVER IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY IS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. DYNAMIC FRONTOGENESIS HAS OCCURRED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY OWING IN PART TO SUBTLE PRESSURE RISES ACROSS KANSAS AND
SUBTLE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PANHANDLES. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
SLIDE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THAT IN MIND, THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON COMES IN TWO FORMS. FIRST OF ALL, HEAT INDICES WILL
AGAIN APPROACH 105 IN OUR EASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTIES WHERE LATENT
HEAT FLUXES HAVE DOMINATED A LITTLE MORE STRONGLY IN RECENT DAYS.
THIS WILL OCCUR WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, ALLOWING
HIGHS IN THAT REGION TO BREACH INTO AT LEAST THE MID-90S. HEAT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS A FEW OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE ACCOMPANYING POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE STORM
REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH ONLY MODEST
OVERALL INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE MODEST AT MOST (15-25 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR).
THERE IS A BIT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AS WELL, WHICH IS KEEPING DCAPE MORE IN THE STANDARD SUMMERTIME
RANGE OF 1,600 OR SO J/KG. THAT IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR
TWO DOWNBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CORES THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY'S CONVERGENCE ZONE.
SHOWER CHANCES TAPER OFF TONIGHT THOUGHT IT WOULDN'T BE A SHOCK TO
SEE ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF WEAK CONVECTION WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND A 30 KNOT LLJ. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 70S.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A SECOND ROUND OF BOUNDARY MADNESS IS IN PLAY TOMORROW, THOUGH THE
MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF STORMS DOES LOOK A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY.
THIS IS IN PART BECAUSE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT
NORTHWARD TO OUR WEST, BRINGING US INTO MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW
REGIME ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THAT, THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE QUITE WEAK.
IN FACT, CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE IS EXPLICITLY RESOLVING
INITIAL UPDRAFTS, THEN A POND-RING PATTERN OF NEW CONVECTION
BLOWING UP AS INITIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SURGE. BECAUSE OF THAT,
SHORT-LIVED DOWNBURSTS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS
ONCE AGAIN. PWATS ARE SEASONALLY HIGH, SO WHILE FLOODING ISN'T
IMPOSSIBLE, WOULDN'T EXPECT OBSCENE RAIN RATES. THE EXPECTED ZONES
FOR STORM INITIATION AND PROGRESSION BEGIN IN THE EVENING JUST
NORTH OF THE OKC METRO AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-40 AS THE FRONT IS CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED.
WE'LL ENTER DAY 3 OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY PATTERN ON
SUNDAY. THE EXACT ZONE FOR STORM POTENTIAL IS UNKNOWN, BUT BASED ON
PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE WILL LIKELY EXTEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TOWARD THE RED RIVER.
HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE ACROSS BRYAN/ATOKA/COAL
COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SAT SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER DURING RECENT AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER, FOR THE REST OF US WE
MIGHT START TO SEE A TREND BACK TOWARD "COOLER" TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 90S AND SLIGHTLY MORE MANAGEABLE HUMIDITY.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE SURFACE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SETTLE INTO OR SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY, AND 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 1000MB-500MB
THICKNESSES DECREASE A LITTLE BIT, WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL (I.E. NOT QUITE AS HOT AS WE HAVE
HAD RECENTLY) THROUGH MID-WEEK, ALTHOUGH WILL START CLIMBING AGAIN
MID-LATE WEEK. WIDELY SCATTERED, MAINLY DIURNAL, CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER, BUT THERE
IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE POPS
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EARLY-MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE, WITH THIS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A LOW CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM REMAINS
ACROSS NORTHERN OK THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY SUNSET. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OK, THOUGH CHANCES WERE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 95 76 96 / 0 30 40 40
HOBART OK 75 97 75 97 / 0 20 40 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 98 76 98 / 0 0 20 30
GAGE OK 72 94 71 96 / 30 10 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 72 90 72 90 / 20 10 40 10
DURANT OK 76 96 78 95 / 0 0 20 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ043-048-052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...08
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