688
FXUS64 KOUN 071059
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
559 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 558 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
- FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING & NIGHT.
- HEAT RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO/THE PANHANDLES HAS TRIED ITS HAND AT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE
SURFACE REMAINING AROUND 15 JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE PRECIPITATION,
IT SEEMS AS THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT (1/10 OF
AN INCH OR LESS). PERHAPS MORE TO THE POINT, THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS INTERRUPTED THE
NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID-40S
EARLY THIS MORNING. THOSE WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE TO DROP ONCE THE
CLOUD COVER DEPARTS, BUT WITH THE LIGHT WETTING/WET-BULBING AND
DELAYED ONSET OF COOLING, FROST CHANCES THIS MORNING SEEM TO HAVE
DECREASED SOME.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND IT. BECAUSE OF THAT,
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE DUE WEST TODAY, A RECIPE FOR QUICK
CHINOOKING AND TEMPERATURES BOUNDING BACK TO OR ABOVE NORMAL.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHERE
RHS DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WINDS REACH ABOUT 15 MPH SUSTAINED -
FAR FROM THE WORST FIRE CONDITIONS WE HAVE SEEN THIS SPRING, BUT
WORTHY OF CAUTION NONETHELESS.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS REACHES BACK INTO OUR
AREA LATE TONIGHT, SO LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE 10-
15 DEGREES WARMER AS WELL.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE PRIMARY STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE THE INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK IS EXTANT IF NOT OVERWHELMING BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE
MONITORED.
ON FRIDAY, THE SEEMINGLY NEVER-ENDING SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENSION WILL
FINALLY CONCLUDE ITSELF WITH A CUTOFF LOW EJECTING INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE POLAR JET WILL FEATURE LARGE-SCALE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US, ENCOURAGING AN ELONGATED PRESSURE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE RED RIVER. A SHARPENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY KICK OFF CONVECTION INITIATION SOMEWHERE NEAR
I-44. STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT WITH A
TENDENCY TOWARD UPSCALE GROWTH ENCOURAGED BY FRONTAL FORCING,
RATHER MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND DRY MID-LEVELS. THE
STRONGEST CORES WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS.
ON SATURDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL CUTOFF WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
TEXAS, BUT MORE MIDLATITUDE FORCING WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW PERTURBATION. ASSUMING THAT MOISTURE ISN'T WIPED BY
THE FRIDAY ROUND OF STORMS, RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD EAST OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW. ANOTHER SOUTHWARD-
SURGING FRONT WILL APPROACH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND KICK OFF A
SECOND, PERHAPS MORE-WIDESPREAD ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
EVENING AND EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, BUT STORM-
SCALE DETAILS REMAIN TO BE SEEN.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A CLOUDY AND COOLER ONE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA IN THE IMMEDIATE POSTFRONTAL REGIME. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXIST NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
DAY.
A BROADER PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS ON MONDAY AND LASTS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THE
JET WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MAKING
ONE OR MORE OF THOSE DAYS (ESPECIALLY TUESDAY) PRIMED FOR POTENTIAL
RECORD-SETTING HEAT. THE OTHER DAYS WILL BE MERELY VERY WARM INSTEAD
OF HOT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULDN'T BE ALTOGETHER DISMISSED, ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT DON'T LOOK IMPRESSIVE
AT THE MOMENT.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WIND DIRECTION WILL
SHIFT AROUND FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 53 85 57 / 0 0 20 20
HOBART OK 78 52 89 56 / 0 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 53 87 59 / 0 0 0 30
GAGE OK 79 50 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 75 53 83 51 / 0 0 30 10
DURANT OK 73 53 81 60 / 0 0 10 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ004-009-014.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14
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