922
FXUS64 KOUN 071918
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
218 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 206 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- HOT & MUGGY CONDITIONS THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR
TO ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS EACH DAY.
- OUR FIRST HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE SEASON WILL BE IN EFFECT MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH HEAT INDICES
THERE EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THEN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THE MCS IS MOVING OUT OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH MUCH OF IT
ALREADY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WE WILL KEEP LOW STORM POPS IN FOR
TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS
LIFTING INTO THE U.S. MIDWESTERN REGION. A VERY REMOTE POTENTIAL
FOR ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPING EARLY TO MID-MORNING MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST HREF. WITH A WET
GROUND AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ADVECTING MOISTURE THE CONDITIONS
COULD BE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING DESI ENSEMBLES
NOT BUYING IT AT THIS TIME SO DID NOT PUT IT INTO THE FORECAST DUE
TO VERY LOW PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER THE FOG POTENTIAL IS NOTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THIS DISCUSSION AND WILL BE PASSED ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT
SHOULD GUIDANCE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY WHICH WILL PRECEDE
AN AFTERNOON HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
HOT & MUGGY CONDITIONS.
ALOFT, A LARGE OPEN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL REMAIN UNDER A RIDGE. A SURFACE LOW LEE OF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS & NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A
MODERATE UP TO STRONG (SBCAPE 3000 J/KG) UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE
EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD STAY WELL
CAPPED ALTHOUGH A WEAKER CAP ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO A BROKEN
CAP FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHERE THE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN PLACE. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SURFACE LOW WHERE
CONVECTION MAY START INITIATING. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE OVER OR
INTO NORTHERN ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHERE ASCENT IS
STRONGEST THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE. ALTHOUGH
OVERALL CHANCES ARE LOW WE DO HAVE 20% STORM POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST
OK TO 14% ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH A SEVERE
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETS STARTING
MONDAY BECOMING A BIT WINDIER DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND GUSTY AFTERNOONS (25-30 MPH) AFTER LATE MORNING MIXING. WE WILL
SEE SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THIS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALTHOUGH NBM WAS ADVECTING UPPER 70S DEWPOINT INTO OUR AREA WHICH IS
A BIT AGGRESSIVE ESPECIALLY WITH CALCULATING HEAT INDICES. AS A
RESULT WENT SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NBM USING THE CONSMOS IN THE MONDAY
AFTERNOON DEWPOINT GRIDS. STILL WILL SEE MONDAY HEAT INDICES IN THE
LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA WITH UPPER
90S INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
HEATING TREND CONTINUES MONDAY WITH MAXIMUM SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA.
OUR WESTERN CWA WILL BE HOTTEST IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. DID GO SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NBM FOR MONDAY'S MAXT USING THE CONSALL. WITH THE HOTTER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE DID ISSUE A 10-COUNTY HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-108 DEGREES. THIS
WILL BE OUR FIRST HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE SEASON.
HOT AND MUGGY BUT DRY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER CIRRUS MAY DIRTY THE
UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING SOME CLOUD COVER TO KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DOWN BELOW TRIPLE DIGIT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL MID WEEK.
BUT WITH SUNNY SKIES, ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH PROJECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY
DECREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND PROVIDING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
RAINFALL IS GENERALLY DONE WITH AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KDUA FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. EVEN THIS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT. MFVR AND IFR CEILINGS HAVE STUBBORNLY PREVAILED
MUCH LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, BUT CEILINGS WILL BE RISING
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. MFVR CEILINGS AT LEAST WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT, AS MOST OF THE AREA IS FAIRLY WELL SATURATED.
FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY NEAR THE RED RIVER, MAINLY AT THE KSPS,
KDUA, OR KLAW AIRPORTS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE
PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 20%, SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT CAN AND WILL UPDATE IF/WHEN A BETTER SIGNAL
SHOWS UP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 86 73 92 75 / 40 10 0 0
HOBART OK 93 73 98 74 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 92 73 96 74 / 60 0 0 0
GAGE OK 92 73 102 75 / 0 0 0 20
PONCA CITY OK 84 72 92 77 / 70 30 10 10
DURANT OK 88 76 90 76 / 80 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ005>007-
010>012-015>018.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...21
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