371
FXUS64 KOUN 130719
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
119 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
EVENING TO SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER (PRIMARILY
1-2 INCH HAIL) ARE POSSIBLE.
- FIRE WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK, WITH TUESDAY CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO HAVE THE GREATEST FIRE RISK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ADVECT MID 50 TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS INTO THE
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000
J/KG. AS ASCENT FROM THE TROUGH INCREASES EXPECT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE AS MID-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES AND
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS, BUT AT LEAST A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FRIDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NW OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES AND WEST TEXAS. MANY
OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX AND SOUTHWEST OK AND MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK THROUGH THE MORNING. AS OF
NOW THE RISK FOR QLCS TORNADOES APPEARS RATHER LOW OWING TO
LIMITED SURFACE INSTABILITY, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY AS
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE LOW-
LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DRY SLOT EXPECTED TO NOSE IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST (LIKELY LEADING TO A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
AFTER THE MORNING ROUND). HOWEVER, REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX AS
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW. WOULD ONCE AGAIN EXPECT HAIL TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LANDSPOUTS/ COLD AIR FUNNELS GIVEN SUCH STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMBIENT VORTICITY WITH THE TROUGH.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITHIN THE COMMA
HEAD OF THE UPPER LOW, TAPERING OFF BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED IN THE SYSTEM'S WAKE
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE
RETURNING BY THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTH WINDS DURING THE MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
WARE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN MONDAY AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S (AS MUCH
AS 20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE). A SERIES OF LOWS
ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH MID-WEEK. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
THESE SURFACE LOWS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ENHANCED BY MIXING INTO A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. INCREASING SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHARPENING UP A DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WITH VERY DRY AIR
FROM NEW MEXICO SPREADING ACROSS THE TEXAS/OK PANHANDLES. THIS
WILL ALL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST FIRE DANGER RISKED AREA ACROSS OUR WEST WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL BE PUNCHING THROUGH. FOR NOW TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST/CRITICAL FIRE DANGER RISK WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A POTENTIAL PACIFIC COLD FRONT MAY COME THROUGH LOWERING
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THURSDAY.
68
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL START APPROACHING OUR AREA
FROM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING IN AT LEAST A 30% PROBABILITY
FOR RAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS ALL OF OUR TERMINALS AND CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW ELEVATED TSRA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY BY 21Z MAINLY IN
CENTRAL & SOUTHWEST OK TO NEAR THE RED RIVER. PROBABILITIES FOR
RAIN AND/OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AFTER 00Z WITH TEMPOS
IN PLACE ACROSS OUR TERMINALS AND BECOMING LIKELY BY 03Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 57 67 47 / 30 90 100 60
HOBART OK 75 54 70 45 / 20 90 90 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 80 59 72 49 / 20 90 100 50
GAGE OK 67 47 64 37 / 20 90 70 20
PONCA CITY OK 70 53 66 44 / 50 100 100 50
DURANT OK 77 59 67 51 / 20 60 100 80
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...68
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