095
FXUS64 KOUN 281119
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 148 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, SOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.
- COOL TODAY IN THE NORTH, BUT NEAR-RECORD HEAT IN THE SOUTH.
- AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED..
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME MAY BE SEVERE.
THE SEVERE RISK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION EVOLVING THIS MORNING. A 30-40 KNOTS
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND INTERACT
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING NEAR THE RED RIVER UP INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WEST OF AMARILLO. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE
PORTION OF THE FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND
THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S
LURKING SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS THAT WILL ADVECT NORTH
WITH THIS WARM FRONT, WE WILL SEE INCREASING SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. SO
WHILE THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE
ELEVATED STORMS PRODUCING HAIL, WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH NEAR THE
BOUNDARY WHERE THE INCREASING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS.
WITH TIME, THE WARM FRONT LIFTING WILL STALL OUT AGAIN AND START
MOVING BACK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT AS A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD BEHIND A NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES BACK SOUTH. WITH
INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY, SEVERE SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
WITH THE FRONT ONLY EXPECTED TO MOVE SO FAR NORTH TODAY AND
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL. BUT
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE FORECAST
HIGH OF 93 AT WICHITA FALLS WOULD TIE THE DAILY RECORD. /26
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
WITH THE FRONT TODAY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE PLAINS, COOLER WEATHER
IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND/OR DEVELOPING MID-
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT START INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND CHANCES INCREASE MORE AS A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME AREAS MAY
RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
REMAINS LOW AS SURFACE INSTABILITY REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE COOL POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND CLOUDS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY
COOL AGAIN SATURDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM EXITS FRIDAY EVENING, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR THE RED RIVER WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
(AND MVFR CEILINGS) NORTH OF THE FRONT, AND THIS STRATUS IS
SPREADING TO COVER MORE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY, AND THE FIRST STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARD WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SOUTH OF KCDS AND SOUTHWEST OF KSPS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATER
TODAY AS MORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA,
AND THIS WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 72 47 69 49 / 40 0 0 0
HOBART OK 80 45 73 49 / 20 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 92 52 73 54 / 60 0 0 10
GAGE OK 69 38 70 44 / 10 0 0 20
PONCA CITY OK 63 44 69 46 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 86 55 70 56 / 70 40 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26
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