451
FXUS64 KOUN 030756
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
256 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY.
- WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SUBTLE WAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
LATER THIS MORNING.
WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PRESENT (~1.8 TO
1.9 INCHES), SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. THE 90TH
PERCENTILE (I.E., REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO) AMONG
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ~1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL NEAR THE RED RIVER. GIVEN THE MOISTURE PRESENT,
THESE POTENTIAL HIGHER-END TOTALS DO NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE.
ALTHOUGH THESE TOTALS ARE UNLIKELY FOR MOST, A FEW ISOLATED
LOCATIONS COULD POTENTIALLY RECEIVE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WITH
SOME FLOODING RISK. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTHWEST
AS THE I-44 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING, BUT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SHOULD BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. THESE SHOWERS
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST.
WITH THE WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44 TODAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY OCTOBER ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEG F.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE, DECREASING CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A
WARMER AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S
TO THE MID 80S DEG F. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS BOTH DAYS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO
QUICKLY EVEN WITH MORE SUNSHINE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH
DAYS.
WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS, LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE 50S DEG F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA MAY EVEN SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S DEG F.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK AS THE WESTERLIES RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG BIAS-CORRECTED PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS MINIMAL, WITH EVEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE INDICATING WARM,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TO AN ELONGATED MID-
LEVEL RIDGE (~585-587 DAM) AS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TOWARD OR EVEN EXCEED 90 DEG F.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX, WITH
CEILINGS MOSTLY VFR/MVFR (IFR AT KDUA). EXPECT SOME THINNING OF
CLOUDS AND IMPROVING CEILINGS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST, WITH MORE
VARIABILITY IN NORTHWEST OK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 59 81 55 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 77 58 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 60 84 57 / 30 0 0 0
GAGE OK 77 54 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 56 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 77 63 85 59 / 60 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...08
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