477
FXUS64 KOUN 091750
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY.
- DRY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY.
- RAIN & STORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COOLER/SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PATTERN AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CONTINUES ABOVE US. WE'LL SEE HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S TODAY WITH LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY (NW OK) WINDS UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S / LOWER 60S.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HOT AND DRY CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN THE LOW LEVELS, WE'LL SEE
WINDS START TO INCREASE, STARTING WITH GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD (ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-44 / I-35) GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR, WE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS ON SUNDAY AS
WELL.
SOME PATCHY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY, THIS LOOKS TO BE RH DRIVEN WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON
SUNDAY, BUT GUSTY WINDS IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY GET JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO PUSH A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS INTO THE ELEVATED RFTI
CATEGORY. ERCS ARE STARTING TO CREEP BACK UP INTO THE 60TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE RANGE.
DAY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
MONDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO FEATURE LOW END (~10-30%) POTENTIAL FOR
RECORD-SETTING HEAT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER, AS THE PREVIOUS UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT REGIONAL CONTROL OF SENSIBLE
CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME NOTABLY WARMER BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES +5-10 DEGREES
(NEAR 70 DEGREES) COMPARED TO LATE THIS WEEK/WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE BY THE TIME WE GET TO TUESDAY
AS PACIFIC-BASED SYSTEMS, INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON,
BEGIN TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE AREA. WHILE OUR CURRENT GRIDDED
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE NEXT WEEK ON
TUESDAY (MID-90S), THE COMBINATION OF A MORE MUTED LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RESPONSE, INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST LOW (~20-30%)
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/STORMS CASTS SOME DOUBT ON ACHIEVING THESE WELL
ABOVE-AVERAGE CONDITIONS.
BETTER/MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS LOOK TO
MATERIALIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AS A PREVIOUSLY CLOSED
UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO OPEN AND ACCELERATE
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PLAINS. GIVEN A SEASONABLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
ADVECTION PATTERN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM, AND WITH CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES, WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS TIME AS WELL.
A MORE NOTABLE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED COOLDOWN LOOKS OCCUR A
BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, NOW FOCUSED ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED/TIMING OF THE FRONT, SOME CONTINUED
RAIN/STORM CHANCE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS, VARIABLE AT TIMES,
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE MODERATELY TOMORROW BY MID-DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AT KCSM, KWWR, KPNC, AND KSWO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 60 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 60 91 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 61 94 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 58 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 57 89 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 61 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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