750
FXUS64 KOUN 231149
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
649 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THAT THE PRIMARY AREAS OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH KAY COUNTY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOME OF
THE STORMS THAT IT IS WORTH KEEPING SOME LOW POPS IN THAT AREA
BEFORE THE CONVECTION DECREASES AND/OR MOVES EAST.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE COMING TOWARD THE PLAINS TONIGHT MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BY 06Z AND INTO KANSAS BY 12Z. WITH THIS TIMING, IT IS MUCH LESS
LIKELY THE ENHANCED LIFT WITH THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE DRYLINE IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND THEREFORE IT WILL
BE MORE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
TODAY AS THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE TO
PREVENT VERY MUCH DEVELOPMENT. AND THIS SHOWS IN THE CURRENT
MODELS WITH MUCH LESS QPF SIGNAL FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE
SO SOME LOW POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED, BUT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT A
CERTAINTY. WE WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS SUNDAY MORNING AFTER
09Z IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE
THROUGH KANSAS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
SUMMARY:
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (DETAILS
BELOW). EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY AND TUESDAY (WHICH WILL BE WARMER THAN
AVERAGE), TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE THANKS TO A FEW
COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH.
WEATHER IMPACTS:
- SUNDAY: SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON,
CONCENTRATED MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
- TUESDAY: SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE EVENING /
OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION.
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS:
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE, BRINGING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MID AFTERNOON, WHEN DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD AID IN INITIATING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. AMPLE
INSTABILITY (1500-2000 JOULES OF MUCAPE) AND SHEAR (50 KNOTS 0-6KM)
WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, MONDAY WILL SEE BRIEFLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE WARMING UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BARREL
THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING ANOTHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. DETAILS
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, THOUGH THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS THAT OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE LINE OF
FIRE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS, THE UPPER
PATTERN SEEMS TO CALM DOWN A BIT, GIVING US MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
DAY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH THE
ASSOCIATED VISIBILITY REDUCTION AND LOWER CEILINGS. THE CHANCES OF
THESE AFFECTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES ARE QUITE LOW EXCEPT FOR A
PROB30 AT KPNC AFTER 06Z.
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
CREATE NON-CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WIND SPEEDS ABOVE THE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THIS SHEAR
LAYER MAY BE AS HIGH AS 55-60 KNOTS.
UPPER AIR
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2021
NO UPPER AIR FLIGHTS ARE PLANNED FOR TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 83 67 83 52 / 0 20 10 0
HOBART OK 87 66 86 51 / 10 20 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 66 90 55 / 0 10 0 0
GAGE OK 87 60 77 45 / 20 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 84 66 79 46 / 0 30 20 0
DURANT OK 85 67 85 59 / 0 0 20 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...26
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