225
FXUS64 KOUN 152321
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
521 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 519 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.
- THE FIRE DANGER RISK INCREASES AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN TEXAS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
WEAK "COLD" FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXIST. AS WE TAP INTO THOSE WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING, SURFACE HIGHS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH OR EXCEED DAILY RECORDS, INCLUDING OKC, WICHITA
FALLS AND LAWTON.
ALONG WITH THESE VERY ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES, VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL AID IN MIXING OUT OR PUSHING EAST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE,
WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO DROP INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT
RANGE. THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL RISK. THERE IS A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT OUT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
COOL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THIS
MORNING TEMPS ONLY DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. BY LATE
TONIGHT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE "COOL" SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ON
SUNDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND A LIGHT/MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND. THIS IS STILL SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
WASH OUT AND LIFT BACK NORTH. A PACIFIC FRONT/SUEDO-DRYLINE WILL
SWING EAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AND MUCH WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD
HIGHS.
DEEPER MIXING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS, WILL CREATE AN AREA OF STRONGER WINDS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE,
THE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN LOWERING DEWPOINTS, WHICH IN
TURN WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RH VALUES AS WELL.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY DORMANT VEGETATION TO ELEVATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN THESE AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPERIENCE WOULD SAY THAT NBM IS PERHAPS KEEPING DEWPOINTS A BIT TOO
HIGH ACROSS THE WEST, WHICH IN TURN KEEPS RH VALUES HIGHER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAY ALSO NEED TO BE RAISED AS MODELS
UNDER DO WIND SPEEDS IN THESE TYPE OF SCENARIOS MUCH OF THE TIME.
THIS ALL BEING SAID, CURRENTLY NOT MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA, BUT
IF ABOVE FACTORS CHANGE IN THE WAYS DISCUSSED, HEADLINES ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR MONDAY.
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH THIS SOME WEAK, BUT
DEEP WAA ALSO DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES, BUT WILL NEED
TO MONITOR TRENDS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
AFTER THE MONDAY SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
RICHER GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BE DISPLACED JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN
NORTHERN TEXAS AND PERHAPS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OKLAHOMA.
AS A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST COAST, A WARM FRONT
MAY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GENERAL SETUP, BUT SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SUGGEST A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY DELAY
THE ONSET OF MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY, THE QUICKLY
SOLUTION IS FAVORED WHICH WILL BRING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM VERY LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD TOO.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
MAINLY A WIND SHIFT FORECAST AS A WEAK FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. BY LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON TOMORROW, THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO
EASTERLY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STRATUS AND/OR FOG TO
MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 51 74 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 47 77 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 50 78 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 43 71 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 48 72 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 56 80 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...14
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page