389
FXUS64 KOUN 311617
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
UP TO 114 DEGREES.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
- EXCESSIVE HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 114 EXPECTED
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY ELSEWHERE. IN
ADDITION, SEVERE STORMS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF
65 TO 70 MPH, ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
A COLD FRONT, WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS, IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING (WITHIN
A FEW HOURS AFTER DAWN). GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT REACHES CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA'S DOOR BY EARLY TO MID- AFTERNOON AND PUSHES SOUTH OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AND HUMID IN THE "WARM SECTOR" WITH
AIR TEMPERATURES RISING TO 105 DEGREES (PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 110 DEGREES
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY).
DESPITE THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW AFTER FROPA, THE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
WILL COINCIDE WITH A RISE IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING FROPA AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY HOT HEAT INDICES OF 110 TO 115 DEGREES
FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SIMILAR HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED INTO
SOUTHERN, AND SO THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING EXTENDS THERE, AS WELL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. CI IS PROG'D TO OCCUR NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR, WHERE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (~10 DEG C/KM) AND 40 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURE SPREADS COULD LEAD TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 65 TO
70 MPH. ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO WANE AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY
LATE EVENING.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY, BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
AND LESS HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 90'S (NORTH AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA) TO THE UPPER
90'S (SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
ON SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
EXCESSIVE HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES FROM
THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW
THROUGH THURSDAY.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE BE NORTHERLY AND GUSTY AT TIMES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH MAY AFFECT TAF SITES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 93 69 93 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 72 97 67 96 / 20 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 99 70 98 / 30 0 0 0
GAGE OK 68 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 71 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 76 96 70 95 / 30 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-014>016-
021-033-034.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ007-008-
011>013-017>020-022>032-035>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...13
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