724
FXUS64 KOUN 200342
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1042 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1234 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCREASE TO AN ELEVATED RISK TODAY
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESTRICT THE DANGEROUS HEAT TO SOUTHERN
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA & WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY,
BUT IT WILL RETURN AND BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THE MAIN HAZARDS TODAY WILL BE HEAT AND FIRE WEATHER, WITH SOME
RELIEF STARTING TO COME IN FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT.
MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
WITH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS RISING
INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE. THE INCOMING FRONT (AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER) WILL INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO CANCEL OUR HEAT PRODUCTS FOR
THE NORTHERN ROW OF OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY LOW RHS (MID TO UPPER TEENS)
COMING IN FROM THE WEST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS,
POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE LOWEST RH VALUES
WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ALONG AN AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE PRE-
FRONTAL TORCHING IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE, THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT FIRE
WEATHER IN THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY (10-15
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH) THROUGH THE DAY. ERCS REMAIN
ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH TODAY'S FORECAST WILL BE THE FRONT AND
ITS EFFECTS. WE'VE SEEN A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AS FAR SOUTH
AS I-44 (FARTHER THAN MOST MODELS HAD PLACED IT BY THIS TIME). THAT
SAID, WE'RE ALSO EXPECTING SOME OF THE LEADING EDGE TO MIX BACK OUT
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION HAVE ALSO BEEN A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN MODELS HAD ADVERTISED, THOUGH THE SHOWERS ARE
QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS WE MOVE TOWARD AFTERNOON. THERE'S ANOTHER
SIGNAL (LOW CHANCE) FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE HOT, BUT LESS HOT NORTH OF I-40. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 100-105 RANGE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40, WITH 105-
110 DEGREE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS (A HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA). ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL HAVE A VERY LOW CHANCE
(10%) OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE "RELIEF" WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH HEAT STARTING
TO RETURN NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY.
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER LIMITED MAINLY TO LOW RISK,
THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHES OF ELEVATED
RFTIS.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
PRESSURE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER
HIGH "HEAT DOME" ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EXPANDS EASTWARD
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE BEING PUSHED BY A PACIFIC
TROUGH COMING ASHORE ON THE WEST COAST. WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
WASHED OUT SOUTHERN LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNS AS OUR TEMPERATURES GET
EVEN HOTTER WITH DANGEROUS HEATING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVES MAY DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE PUSHING OUR
NEXT "SUMMER" COLD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY BUT
TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO DETERMINE ANY HEATWAVE RELIEF FROM THIS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
LOW/SPORADIC COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS REMAINS THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL, "BEST" CHANCES
(COVERAGE) WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE EARLY MORNING INTO
EVENING. WHILE ONLY ADDED AT KDUA FOR NOW, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
YIELDING GUSTY-ERRATIC WINDS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY NEAR
THE RED RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE, A REINFORCED FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
I-40 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OFFERING A MORE SUSTAINED
NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT IN ITS WAKE. FOR NOW, BARRING POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE, SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN BACKING
(AT LEAST SUBTLY) BY THE LATE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 101 75 104 / 0 10 10 0
HOBART OK 76 105 75 106 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 107 78 107 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 70 98 71 103 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 71 98 71 100 / 20 0 20 0
DURANT OK 81 107 77 106 / 0 10 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ023-027>039-
044-045.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
OKZ040>043-046>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...09
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