890  
FXUS64 KOUN 250405  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
1105 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020  
 
IT'S BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS OK AND PORTIONS OF NORTH TX THIS  
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/MCV OVER CENTRAL TX. AS A  
RESULT, AN AREA OF MOIST CONVECTION IS STARTING TO BLOSSOM NEAR THE  
RED RIVER. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING  
HOURS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EXTENDING FROM PERHAPS AS FAR  
WEST AS WICHITA FALLS, EAST TO ATOKA. SOME HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF  
GOLF BALLS AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS  
HERE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ORGANIZATION WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER  
SHEAR/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PRESENT.  
 
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL OCCUR LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OK/N TX AS A SIMILAR  
SCENARIO TO LAST NIGHT UNFOLDS. EXPECT EVEN MORE CONVECTION TO  
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE AND STALLING COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON OVER THE PANHANDLES, AND THEN PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO OUR  
WESTERN ZONES. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT OVER THE  
EXTREME WEST, WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND WIND DAMAGE THEN POSSIBLY  
MOVING FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS MOST SOLUTIONS, AGAIN,  
WANT TO DISSIPATE THIS LINE A BIT TOO EARLY ESPECIALLY WITH MORE MID  
TO UPPER LIFT MOVING OUT OF WEST TX TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LLJ  
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SO WILL KEEP SOME CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE  
FORECAST THROUGH 12Z MON FROM SOUTHERN OKC METRO INTO THE RED RIVER.  
 
AFTER THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WANES TOMORROW MORNING, SOME  
REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALVES OF OK  
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID TO UPPER VORT MAX. A BREAK IN  
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE  
THE FINAL, MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT AGAIN RESULT IN  
REDEVELOPMENT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. BY THIS  
TIME INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE FA WILL BE ON A DOWNTREND SO DO NOT  
EXPECT GIANT HAIL PRODUCERS, BUT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND  
SOME LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HEATING ACROSS SE OK/NEAR RED RIVER COULD  
RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY MON AFTERNOON/EVE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020  
 
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CLOSING  
OFF, WITH AN UPPER LOW LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE ALONG THE RED RIVER  
BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A FURTHER  
SOUTH AND EAST SOLUTION THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, WHICH MAY TEND TO  
FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS AND FLOODING THREAT ACROSS  
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON (OR  
POTENTIALLY EVEN SOUTH OF OUR AREA ALTOGETHER). HOWEVER, THERE IS  
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING REGARDING THE DETAILS ON HOW  
THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND EXACTLY WHERE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST  
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL SET UP.  
 
FOR NOW, HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE LOW  
SLOWLY MEANDERS OVER THE REGION. AS WE GET TOWARDS THE END OF THE  
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR LESS WIDESPREAD  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY  
FROM THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH  
THE PERIOD AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN LOW. CLOUDS AND RAIN  
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS  
IN THE 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020  
 
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST  
ACROSS OKLAHOMA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WITH  
THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH  
SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS IN IFR CEILINGS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 73 60 72 / 70 70 50 50  
HOBART OK 62 73 57 72 / 80 50 50 40  
WICHITA FALLS TX 64 75 61 72 / 80 60 70 50  
GAGE OK 59 69 53 74 / 80 40 30 30  
PONCA CITY OK 65 74 60 74 / 40 80 60 50  
DURANT OK 65 76 63 75 / 40 50 80 80  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...03  
LONG TERM....08  
AVIATION...09  
 
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