777
FXUS64 KOUN 180300
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 957 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR AND NORTH OF A
COLD FRONT, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- OCCASIONALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AS FUELS REMAIN VERY DRY ACROSS
THE AREA.
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH TODAY, AND THROUGHOUT THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION HAS MORE OR LESS COMBINED WITH THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OK
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN MCV WAS ALSO NOTED ON SATELLITE/
RADAR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK WHERE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED.
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH
STRONG HEATING, WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS, EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO
YESTERDAY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH BRING A RETURN OF SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE
REGION. THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR ON TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 105+
AIR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
LIKELY APPROACHING 110 DEGREES. THESE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS,
ALONG WITH MODEST SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS, WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OK, THOUGH THE RISK FOR FIRE
STARTS REMAINS HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA AS WELL
WITH SUCH DRY FUELS IN PLACE. THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN THE CAMS
THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD POP UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL OK AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE
REACHED TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT HIGH CLOUD BASES AND DRY NEAR-
SURFACE AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THE SURFACE VERY
LIGHT IF THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS.
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
105+ TEMPERATURES LIKELY ONCE AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE GOTTEN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN OK COUNTIES
(BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT HEAT RELIEF), BUT MUCH OF THE
FRONT'S PROGRESS WILL LIKELY HINGE ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS ACROSS KS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT COULD ALSO BRING
ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME RAIN FOR THESE AREAS, WITH 20-30% POPS IN
PLACE, MAINLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WARE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
THE PATTERN SHIFT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING IN THE MODEL FORECASTS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHING ITSELF MORE IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND TROUGHING EXPECTED IN THE GREAT LAKES/MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WITH THIS PATTERN, THE POTENTIAL INCREASES OF GETTING A
COLD FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE, HOW MUCH COOLER WILL IT BE NORTH
OF THE FRONT GIVEN THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE BEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF HERE PUSHING MORE TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY. NBM SUGGESTS HIGHS MAY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 90S IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH GRANTED WILL BE
SOME RELIEF FROM THE 104-110 HIGHS WE EXPECT IN THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FARTHER SOUTH THE FORECAST REDUCTION IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT.
THEN, THE RIDGE STARTS BUILDING BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AND WE ARE BACK TO THE AREAWIDE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THEN
THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS). THESE WINDS WILL BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW
EVENING.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 74 105 79 106 / 20 10 10 0
HOBART OK 75 107 78 108 / 20 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 78 107 79 107 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 71 105 75 102 / 10 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 72 106 78 103 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 76 107 80 106 / 20 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>006-
009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038-044.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-
008-012-013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...10
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