038
FXUS64 KOUN 100658
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
158 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 158 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY;
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- HOT & MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES
NEAR AND ABOVE 100-105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A SLOWLY DECAYING COMPLEX OF RAIN/THUNDER ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO OFFER SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
(UP TO ~50-60 MPH) THROUGH 4 AM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF HOT AND HUMID DAYTIME
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR STORMS/SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN EXTENTS OF THE AREA.
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO TUESDAY, AS THE AXIS OF A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. A CONTINUED RESERVOIR OF
~65-70+ DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL COMBINE TO YIELD PEAK HEAT
INDICES ABOVE 105F ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, WHERE A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM THIS EVENING, AND WAS
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE HARPER, ELLIS, WOODWARD, DEWEY AND ROGER MILLS
COUNTIES.
WHILE MOST FOLKS WILL AGAIN REMAIN RAIN/STORM-FREE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED EVENINGTIME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA,
AS A WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS SLOW APPROACH. STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
WHILE HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY TEMPER THE HAIL RISK SOME, AT
LEAST PRIOR TO ~SUNSET, SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW/WIND
SHEAR (COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS) WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE "EQUAL"
CHANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
SLOW-DECAYING CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE IN SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO THE INITIAL PHASES OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH CONCERN
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST TO BE NIL BY THIS TIME.
A MORE NOTABLE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, AS A COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE THIS,
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE CONTINUATION OF DANGEROUSLY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR AREA. AT
LEAST LOCALLY >105F HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST AND ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AT FORTHCOMING UPDATES.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EVENING AND NIGHT. RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND HOT TEMPERATURES, YIELDING STRONG
INSTABILITY BUILD, WILL COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELDS/SHEAR FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONCERN.
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND EVENTS AND LARGE HAIL LOOK TO REMAIN THE
MAIN SEVERE HAZARDS DURING THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AS A
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE SLOWING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS EARLIER
IN THE EVENING, SOME CONCERN FOR FLOODING MAY EMERGE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO FRIDAY.
WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER AMBIENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WHERE RAIN/CLOUDS PERSIST TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON, CONTINUED HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT
INDEX READINGS BACK TOWARDS 100 DEGREES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN AREA/COVERAGE IS LOW AT THIS POINT, WITH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ATOP A REGIONALLY LOCATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY EVENING INTO NIGHT.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS INTO THE WEEKEND, AS AN UPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MATURE
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF
RAIN AND STORMS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
AS ANOTHER STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME STRONG-SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING
RISK IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH NO PARTICULAR PERIOD
STANDS ABOVE THE REST AT THIS POINT.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY (PRIOR TO THE FRONT), BEFORE A MORE
PROLONGED AND NOTABLE "COOLDOWN" - LOW TO MID-80S HIGHS - ARRIVES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS ON
TUESDAY, OFFERING CONCERN FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AT KWWR
THROUGH ~09 UTC. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR-SUNRISE STRATUS BUILD IS EXPECTED
AT TERMINALS NEAR AND EAST OF I-44/I-35, WITH AT LEAST
INTERMITTENT MVFR CATEGORY EXPECTED. CLEARING SKIES AND A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND WILL BE COMMONPLACE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE CURRENTLY LOW PROBABILITY, WILL MONITOR NEED FOR ESCALATED
THUNDER MENTION AT KWWR/KPNC/KSWO/KCSM THIS AFTERNOON, AS MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 95 78 96 70 / 0 0 40 80
HOBART OK 97 77 97 70 / 10 20 40 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 96 77 98 74 / 0 0 0 60
GAGE OK 101 79 94 66 / 20 20 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 95 79 95 67 / 40 30 50 30
DURANT OK 90 79 91 77 / 0 0 0 60
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ004>015-017-018.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...09
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