180
FXUS64 KOUN 211720
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1220 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- RECORD HEAT LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE TEMPERATURES
LIKELY.
- FIRE RISK CONTINUES TODAY & SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ON
SUNDAY NEAR AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- AFTER "NOT AS HOT" TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY, HOTTER TEMPERATURES
RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED NEAR AND WEST OF THE
AREA. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 F WILL OCCUR AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DAILY RECORD HIGHS LIKELY IN SPOTS. MODEST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH AND MINIMUM RH OF 10-20
PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP, WITH
LOWS RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA, EXITING
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 90S TO LOW
100S, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THE
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP. FOR A FEW HOURS, GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONSIDERING THE ONGOING DRY WEATHER AND
INITIALLY STILL VERY WARM CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING, WHICH COVERS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR
A POCKET OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OK. BY THE EVENING HOURS, WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP, AND RH WILL RISE. THIS
SHOULD HELP THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MONDAY WILL BE COOLER AND A BIT CLOUDIER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER, COOLER IS RELATIVE, AS HIGHS WILL ONLY DROP TO
NEAR NORMAL. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES ON TUESDAY, WITH VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING INTO MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
WIDESPREAD 90S WILL RETURN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO RETURN, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER LIKELY DRY COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED LATE NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TOWARDS DAY 7.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODEST SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, MOSTLY 15 KTS OR LESS, BUT A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. LLWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, GUSTING TO 20-30 KTS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF
25-35 KTS FOR MOST TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 95 66 90 50 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 97 61 90 48 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 64 99 54 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 97 58 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 95 61 82 45 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 90 64 92 58 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-
009>011-014>016-021-022-033>036.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ004>042-
044>046-050.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...06
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