510
FXUS64 KOUN 211720
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY; LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH
TEXAS.
- RAINY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
EPISODES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE TWO FEATURES THAT CAN BE SEEN ON REGIONAL
RADAR/SATELLITE:
1) A SUBTLE MCV LIFTING NORTHWARD NEAR OR JUST WEST OF I-35 FROM
TEXAS THROUGH OKLAHOMA
2) THE BROADER TROUGH AXIS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET
THE FIRST OF THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY
WITH LOCALIZED CLEARING INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ABOUT 1,000-1,500
J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISM NEAR OR BEHIND THE
MCV IS UNCERTAIN, AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A RATHER SCATTERED "POPCORN"
NATURE OF STORM REDEVELOPMENT. BECAUSE OF THAT, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
VARY GREATLY FROM POINT TO POINT, WITH SOME SPOTS MAYBE SEEING
LITTLE TO NO RAIN (ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35), AND A COUPLE OF
LOCATIONS SEEING 2-3 MORE INCHES. THE SECOND AREA'S IMPACT IS LESS
CERTAIN, AS SEVERAL CAMS SUGGEST AN EASTWARD RATHER THAN
NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS IN WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER, IT
STILL APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH INCHES NORTH.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
THE ENVIRONMENT BEGINS TO STABILIZE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WHERE A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM AFTER DEVELOPING ON THE RATON MESA.
WHILE MODEST INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE INTO OUR AREA, THE LACK OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD COMMENCE A WEAKENING TREND WITH THESE STORMS AS
THEY ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, AND THEY WILL DECAY BEFORE LONG.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS TOMORROW AS THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER DRIVER. BECAUSE OF THIS, AND WITH THE 500 MB JET
STREAK IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, A COLD FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT, BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE FORCING
SHOULD EXIST FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT SEEMS TO ENTAIL A CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING IN DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY
PEAK RATHER EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH AT LEAST SOME
DAMAGING WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL, BUT DOSN'T LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. FRONTAL UNDERCUTTING WILL OCCUR
LATER IN THE NIGHT, BUT IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT ALMOST ALL CAM
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS AT LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN MCS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT DESPITE THE LACK OF A LLJ AGAIN.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LEAK SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY.
RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD NOT LEAD
TO ANY SORT OF FOCUSED SEVERE/FLOOD RISK. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND (EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT) TO GET CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST SPOTS WILL HIT ABOUT 80 DURING
BOTH DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH AT LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
BRING CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD RISE TO NEAR SEASONABLE,
IT APPEARS IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AS WE GO INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80'S.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
STRATUS PERSISTS, THOUGH SOME LIFTING (MOSTLY TO MVFR) IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CEILINGS CRASH TO IFR / LIFR AGAIN TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH
NORTHEASTERLY STORM MOTIONS INTO THE EVENING, WITH CHANCES
DECREASING GENERALLY WEST TO EAST. DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AS WELL.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 78 60 78 / 40 10 70 50
HOBART OK 57 81 58 80 / 20 10 70 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 59 83 60 82 / 30 10 70 40
GAGE OK 54 77 52 76 / 30 40 70 60
PONCA CITY OK 58 78 58 78 / 50 20 50 40
DURANT OK 63 82 64 82 / 80 20 50 60
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...14
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