336
FXUS64 KOUN 142335
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA, WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RELIEF
FROM THE DROUGHT FOR MOST AREAS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
THE FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY IS NOT AS
LOW AS SOME TYPICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENTS, THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY
FUELS STILL ARE CREATING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND SPEED WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT AROUND SUNSET, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING WILL STILL
CREATE GUSTINESS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL JET ARE THE HIGHEST. HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER TONIGHT
BUT THE WINDS MAY STILL CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE SPREAD WITH ONGOING
WILDFIRES.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE EAST, HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. THE 594 DM
500 MB CONTOUR BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND THE
PROJECTED PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO LINE UP NORTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING. SO WITH THESE TWO FACTORS, HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT TOWARD THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DECREASES. THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPC HAS CREATED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA, BUT THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT THE ADVISORY WILL
NEED TO BE EXPANDED WITH A FUTURE PACKAGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, DEPENDENT ON HOW EARLY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST AND HOW FAR EAST ANY
CLOUDINESS SPREADS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
EVEN IF THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY,
THE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND YET ANOTHER
HOT DAY IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, REINFORCED BY BIAS-CORRECTED
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT EVEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE
REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BY THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK (SEPTEMBER 19-21),
WHICH INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE. THERE IS A
CHANCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS, DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SUNDAY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMEFRAME FOR
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THAT SAID, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS SHOWN A DISTINCT TREND
TOWARD A SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS
THIS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY, INDICATING A 20 TO 75% PROBABILITY OF
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW 90 DEG F ON SUNDAY (20%
SOUTHEAST TO 75% NORTH). THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE REFLECTS A LOW
TO MODERATE PROBABILITY (5% SOUTHEAST TO 40% NORTH) OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW 80 DEG F. NEVERTHELESS, A REASONABLE
CHANCE PERSISTS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP AT LEAST 90 DEG F
(25% NORTH TO 80% SOUTHEAST) SHOULD THE FRONTAL TIMING CONTINUE TO
SLOW DOWN. THE FIRST DAY OF FALL IS TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, SO
PERHAPS WE'LL SEE A TIMELY FRONT SOMETIME BY THEN.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT RETURN BY MID MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS WINDS ALSO VEER TO SOUTH OR
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 100 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 78 102 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 103 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 78 100 68 98 / 0 40 70 0
PONCA CITY OK 76 99 73 97 / 0 0 20 0
DURANT OK 77 103 76 101 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ032-043-047-048-
051-052.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ032-043-047-
048-051-052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...08
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