870
FXUS64 KOUN 160337
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1037 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- NEAR-RECORD HEAT, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER, AND SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
- ABOVE-AVERAGE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH END OF THE WEEK.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING MEDIUM-HIGH
RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
FIRST, WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. THIS
FIRE DANGER IS ESPECIALLY DRIVEN BY VERY DRY FUELS BEING IN THE
DROUGHT, AND THE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH NOT EXCEPTIONAL FOR WIND AND
HUMIDITY, IS SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE THE OVERALL FIRE ENVIRONMENT IN
THE AREA OF DRY FUELS. THE GRACEMONT FIRE IN CADDO/CANADIAN COUNTY
HAS BECOME VERY ACTIVE AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES FROM NEAR DODGE CITY TO EAST OF GUYMON. MOST MODELS
SUGGEST THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BEFORE 00Z. WITH THIS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING
PEAK HEATING, PROBABILITY IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER IN THE FAR NORTHWEST,
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE LURKING CLOSE BY WITH HIGH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A AXIS OF 1500 J/KG OF
DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WITH THE
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR, THIS CREATES THE RISK OF BOTH (A) STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, AND (B) THE
POTENTIAL OF HIGH-BASED STORMS WHERE LIGHTNING COULD CREATE NEW
WILDFIRE STARTS.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
SUNRISE, SO SOME COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT/LIFT NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO WE
RETURN TO HOT WEATHER AREAWIDE. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA FOR WEDNESDAY WHERE
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH AT
LEAST 105. NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER TOMORROW
WITHOUT THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WE ARE
SEEING TODAY SO WILL NOT REISSUE THE ADVISORY THERE FOR TOMORROW
AT THIS TIME. BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE ADVISORY AREA MAY
BE EXPANDED AGAIN IN A SUBSEQUENT FORECAST. THE HOT AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY.
AS WITH TODAY, THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THEIR OWN MAY NOT REACH
TRADITIONAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS, BUT THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH THAT FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK
DUE TO THE VERY DRY FUELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS PROG'D TO SLOW/STALL IN THE VICINITY OF ARKLATEX
BY FRIDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH DEPARTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER FOR LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH BENEFICIAL AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST NBM
RUN HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80'S ON SUNDAY AND UPPER 70'S
ON MONDAY FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL BE THE LAST TO BENEFIT FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS AND IS
FORECAST TO HAVE MAX TEMPERATURES FINALLY BELOW 90 DEGREES ON MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES LINGER ON SUNDAY AND DEPART OUR AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE UPCOMING
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AFTER ~09-10Z INTO THE MID-MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA (KWWR), WHEN MVFR
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED HIGH CEILINGS
AND EVENTUALLY PATCHY DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
OFFER SHIFTED/CHANGING WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AT
KPNC/KSWO/KCSM, WITH A PREDOMINATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
DIRECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY NO LATER THAN MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 99 76 98 / 10 0 0 10
HOBART OK 76 101 75 99 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 102 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 66 98 72 98 / 70 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 73 98 74 96 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 76 102 75 101 / 0 10 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ032-042-043-
046>048-050>052.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...09
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