332
FXUS64 KOUN 021836
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
136 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WITH LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURNING
TUESDAY AND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER LIKE DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY IN THE 90S AND POTENTIALLY APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE OVER OKLAHOMA TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO
ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
MONDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVER GEORGIA AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EXPANDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BRINGS HEIGHT RISES TO THE
FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGHING
BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL
RETURN TO AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF I-35, WITH UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE.
WHERE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES ARE THE WARMEST, DAYTIME MIXING WILL
KEEP DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS THE
UPPER TEENS TO 20S. THUS, HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND OR ONLY A
DEGREE OR TWO AWAY FROM THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE. WITH BORDERLINE
TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 105 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR MONDAY.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL RETURN TO MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR THE RED RIVER AND INTO
ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH HIGHS NEAR 105-107 DEGREES. WITH
THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT, THE LEE LOW WILL BE PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN SOUTHERLY WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR MIXING AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF UPPER TEENS TO 20S SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO
OKLAHOMA. THUS, HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AROUND THE AMBIENT
AIR TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BRINGING WITH IT A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT. LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES (<20%) WERE ADDED
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO STALL ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE TUESDAY.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY HIGH CLOUD BASES WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS VIRGA, WITH DCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1500
J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
MODEL BLENDS SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER
KANSAS. HOWEVER, A FEW DETERMINISTIC MODELS (NAM/GFS) INDICATE THE
FRONT COULD SAG INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN
THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS (15%) OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH CHANCES IN THAT VICINITY RISING TO NEAR 30% ON THURSDAY
EVENING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND RAIN CHANCES,
TEMPERATURE BOX PLOTS FOR THESE LOCATIONS WIDEN BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. STILL, HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA AND HUMIDITY RISES MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 60'S AND LOW 70'S. HEAT HEADLINES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KWWR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 100 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 69 102 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 103 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 68 102 72 101 / 0 0 0 20
PONCA CITY OK 68 97 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 69 98 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...13
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