545
FXUS64 KOUN 280732
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
232 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 232 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
BESIDES THE ELEVATED FIRE RISK OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, TODAY WILL BE
A PLEASANTLY COOL SPRING DAY ACROSS MOST THE AREA...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN QUITE STUBBORN TONIGHT AND HAVE REMAINED
OVER NORTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE, WE HAVE RAISED
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE LOOKING HIGHLY DOUBTFUL. GIVEN THIS TREND, HAVE INCREASED CLOUD-
COVER SOME FOR TODAY, BUT SUSPECT DENSE CLOUD-COVER MAY HANG ON LONGER
THAN FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE COOL-SIDE COMPARED TO THE RECORD-WARMTH OBSERVED LAST WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60'S - WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO VEER
TO THE SOUTH WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE ESTABLISHMENT
OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MODESTLY BREEZY
OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED
DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING. WITH THE DRY AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (15-25%) COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH JUST BEFORE SUNSET.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALONG
WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...
THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS AND REACHES THE GULF ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
ARRIVES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES WITHIN THE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTS IN THE
DEEPENING OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
ON SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND WIDESPREAD GUSTS
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY APPEARS PROBABLE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA, INCLUDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE ENHANCED RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80'S TO NEAR 90 DEG OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN OK AND ADJACENT NORTH TX. DESPITE THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, THE HOT TEMPERATURES OUT WEST WILL YIELD LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS (NORTHWEST/WEST OK) AND NEAR 30%
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL TICK UPWARDS COMPARED
TO SUNDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A LARGER AREA OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY (CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS (ALONG WITH FIRE RISK) CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS MORE OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THE SEVERE RISK IS STILL
MUTED SOMEWHAT AT THIS RANGE, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE
INSTABILITY, MODEST UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD
BASES, AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
SOME HAIL. FOR NOW, THE BENEFIT OF RECEIVING RAINFALL APPEARS
GREATER THAN THE SEVERE RISK. UNFORTUNATELY, THE PROBABILITY OF
RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.5" OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOW (<20%)
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH A MEDIUM POTENTIAL (40-50%) FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-35.
THE DYNAMIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURNING DAILY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA, ALONG WITH SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN OK. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TI DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE CLOUD COVER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE REST OF
TONIGHT, BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND VEER MORE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 47 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 64 43 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 44 86 58 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 67 44 90 57 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 65 46 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 65 50 81 60 / 10 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...06
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