819  
FXUS64 KOUN 292014  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
314 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023  
 
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS  
AFTERNOON. AS THE FLOW INTENSIFIES, THE STANDING WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST  
COLORADO IS LEADING TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH. RETURN FLOW WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY REACHING  
35 MPH IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. UNLIKE THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS, THIS  
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW  
50S.  
 
CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING AROUND  
DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM  
THE GULF. THIS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW AND HELP MAINTAIN  
A WEAK EML CAP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THERE ARE TWO SPOTS WHERE  
CONVECTION INITIATION LOOKS PLAUSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNSET TOMORROW  
NIGHT. THE FIRST IS WITHIN THE DRYLINE REGION OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS  
AND POTENTIALLY SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HERE, SHORT-RANGE MODELS DEPICT  
GREATER INSOLATION ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID-70S AND A  
NEAR-COMPLETE EROSION OF MLCIN. HOWEVER, THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE  
FIRMLY WITHIN THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL  
JET. THEREFORE, SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO TAMP DOWN STORM  
DEVELOPMENT IN LIEU OF A STRONG CAP. OVERALL CHANCES FOR STORMS TO  
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ARE LOW. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP, WIND  
PROFILES STRONGLY SUGGEST DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  
 
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELIER BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW IN  
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. HERE, DEEP MOIST ADVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF  
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM NOSE TO DEVELOP WITH  
ABOUT 1000-1500 MUCAPE ABOVE IT. MODELS ARE FAIRLY INSISTENT IN  
SHOWING A LEAD STJ WAVE PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE  
EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR SHOWERS AND  
EVENTUALLY STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN  
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, BUT THE OVERALL GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE A  
WETTING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF FRIDAY'S FIRE WEATHER.  
 
MEISTER  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023  
 
STORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL  
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS BACK INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A STRONGER CAP  
WILL BUILD BACK IN AROUND MIDNIGHT AREA-WIDE, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A  
LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE HEART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AFTER  
THAT, THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP EASTWARD WITH THE  
APPROACH OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC WAVE. HREF MEMBERS DEPICT THE RAPID  
DESTRUCTION OF MLCIN AS THE CAP QUICKLY GETS LIFTED ALONG I-35 JUST  
BEFORE DAYBREAK. SO FAR, THOSE SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE A BIT BASHFUL  
IN ACTUALLY RESOLVING CONVECTION WITHIN THAT UNCAPPED CORRIDOR.  
HOWEVER, THE TTU WRF SHOWS CI OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE OKC  
METRO BETWEEN 7:00 AND 9:00 A.M, WITH A SQUALL LINE QUICKLY  
DEVELOPING AND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA.  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY AN EMBEDDED TORNADO THREAT WOULD  
BE POSSIBLE IF THE TTU WRF IS MORE CORRECT THAN THE HREF AND STORMS  
REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.  
 
THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY NOON WITH A PRONOUNCED  
DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL WAVE ALLOWING STRONG  
WINDS TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE. THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A SITUATION  
WHERE THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL DEPART ABOUT 3 HOURS TOO EARLY FOR  
DAYTIME HEATING AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS TO BE COLLOCATED. HOWEVER,  
WITH A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND STRONG  
SUBSIDENCE, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST TO OR ABOVE 50 MPH BY NOON  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. FIRE WEATHER WILL RAPIDLY  
ESCALATE INTO THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND  
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AFTER THE  
LLTR DEPARTS BY MIDAFTERNOON. THE BEST OVERLAP OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL  
CONDITIONS AND THE DRIEST FUELS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL  
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTH  
AND EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAIN MAY MITIGATE  
THE ENVIRONMENT FROM REALIZING FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER.  
 
A BRIEF INTRUSION OF COLDER AIR WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING  
BEFORE WINDS RAPIDLY SHIFT BACK AROUND TO SOUTHERLY AS YET ANOTHER  
WAVE APPROACHES. DRY RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE  
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON  
SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE AVERAGE AREA-WIDE.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A PERIOD WHERE EITHER  
HAZARDOUS SEVERE OR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER ARE REALIZED, DEPENDING  
ON THE PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES SUCH AS THE DRYLINE. ANOTHER  
EXTREMELY POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA  
TUESDAY. A BEST GUESS NOW SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE LOW-END SEVERE  
CHANCES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35, WHILE A LARGE  
CHUNK OF THE AREA WILL SEE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ONCE MORE ON  
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY, AS FUELS MAY HAVE  
SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT BEFORE THEN.  
 
MEISTER  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2023  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY  
MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH, WITH WINDS BECOMING  
STRONG DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DECREASING OVERNIGHT, AND  
BECOMING STRONG AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY STARTING THURSDAY MORNING.  
LOWER CEILINGS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING INTO THE  
REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 49 66 59 73 / 0 20 60 30  
HOBART OK 47 69 55 74 / 0 10 40 10  
WICHITA FALLS TX 51 70 62 75 / 0 20 50 20  
GAGE OK 45 70 50 70 / 0 10 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 46 69 58 74 / 0 10 50 20  
DURANT OK 51 68 61 80 / 0 50 50 60  
 
 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING  
FOR OKZ004>030-033>038-044.  
 
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING  
FOR TXZ083>089.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...04  
LONG TERM....04  
AVIATION...50  
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