966
FXUS64 KOUN 031039
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
539 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 534 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA DUE TO BREEZY,
WARM, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MIDWEEK.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
OUR WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S.
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL SEE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
AS RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS COMBINE WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS (15-20 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH). WHILE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW RHS WILL SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, FIRE WEATHER WILL BE
MITIGATED BY GREEN UP IN AREAS OUTSIDE FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AN
RFD HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA OF CONCERN.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
ELEVATED RFTIS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE DRYLINE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THOUGH A MISALIGNMENT OF FEATURES WILL MITIGATE
AGAINST THE OVERALL FIRE RISK. THE AXIS OF HIGHER WINDS IS EXPECTED
TO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE HIGHEST ERCS AND LOWEST RH VALUES.
ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING CLOUDS WILL DAMPEN ANY MIXING.
OTHERWISE, MONDAY LOOKS WARM AND GUSTY (90S WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND
80S EASTWARD). AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD, THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
OFF THE DRYLINE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THESE
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (AROUND 10%) DUE TO STRONG CAPPING. THE HREF IS
STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNAL FOR A STORM OR TWO IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA / NORTH TEXAS, SO HAVE ADDED 10% POPS FOR THAT AREA.
A FRONT WILL MOVE IN EARLY ON TUESDAY, BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGH FOR
TUESDAY'S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES, BUT WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE A SHARP
GRADIENT WITH 50S / 60S IN THE NORTH TO 80S / 90S IN THE SOUTH.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHERE IT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
(INCLUDING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS). ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA.
DAY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS BOTH
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE (60S AND
70S, BUT AGAIN WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY). WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP AS LOW AS THE 30S. NBM SUGGESTS A 25% PROBABILITY
THAT TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
ON THURSDAY, WE BEGIN WARMING BACK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PERIOD
SEEMS MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
DAY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NEAR
DUE SOUTHWESTERLY AT MOST SPOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON (10-15 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS). THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL BRING IN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 60 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 85 59 93 63 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 85 59 91 70 / 0 0 10 10
GAGE OK 86 56 91 51 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 85 60 86 58 / 0 0 10 20
DURANT OK 81 58 82 69 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04
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