780
FXUS64 KOUN 060617
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
117 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
- FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
- HEAT RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
OUR ENTIRE AREA SITS BEHIND A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRY AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT UNIMPRESSIVE, BUT
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HAS STILL DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
50S PRETTY EARLY IN THE NIGHT. HOW MUCH FURTHER TEMPERATURES DROP
WILL LARGELY BE A PRODUCT OF THAT COLD/DRY ADVECTION WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
FURTHERMORE, STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NOSE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE
ALOFT IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. 1,000-2,000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ARE IN PLACE
SOUTH OF THAT ELEVATED FRONT, WHICH IS AT LEAST ATTEMPTING TO
MIGRATE NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY. EXTREME WIND SHEAR ALOFT UNDERNEATH A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO ELEVATED
CORES, WHICH COMBINED WITH COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR HAIL
IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK,
WHEN RENEWED COLD ADVECTION SHOVES THE ELEVATED FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
AREA.
PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS A 1022 MB SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THAT, EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE A CLASSIC SPRING UPSLOPE STORM
ON THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH STRONG MID-TO-UPPER WESTERLIES ABOVE THIS,
THERE'S AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME POCKETS OF RAIN TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO FAR NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAYTIME AND
ESPECIALLY THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UNSATURATED BOUNDARY LAYERS; THEREFORE,
TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT.
MEISTER
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE SHORT TERM WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR RIGHT AS THE
SHORT TERM COMMENCES - COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING. NBM DATA
CONTINUE TO RUN COLDER THAN THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH LOWS
IN ELLIS/HARPER/WOODWARD COUNTIES SITTING IN THE 32-35 RANGE
(CONTRASTED WITH NAM/HRRR SHOWING LOWS OF CLOSE TO 38). HOWEVER,
TEND TO THINK NBM IS GOING TO BE CLOSER TO CORRECT HERE THAN DIRECT
MODEL OUTPUT, AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE SURFACE MOIST LAYER
THAT WOULD IMPEDE FURTHER COOLING TO BE EXTREMELY SHALLOW. WITH
CLEARING SKIES OUT WEST, THIS IS A RECIPE FOR SURPRISING TEMPERATURE
TANKS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT FROST ADVISORIES WILL BECOME
NECESSARY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FOR TOMORROW MORNING.
THE SURFACE HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. BEHIND IT, A SUNNY AND MILD AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE WIND IS
EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL RENDER
LOW TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PRIOR NIGHT.
THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS RETURN FLOW COMMENCES IN EARNEST.
MOST MODEL DATA SHOWS A DRY SECTOR/DRY RETURN FLOW REGIME FURTHER
WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA, BUT THIS WILL
BE COMPLICATED BY ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUT WEST,
BUT THE EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF THE FIRE WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THIS FRONTAL INTERACTION. LOW STORM CHANCES WILL EXIST FRIDAY NIGHT
ALONG THAT BOUNDARY, BUT AGAIN, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
MEISTER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY, KICKING US INTO A TRANSITION PERIOD. WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW, INCREASING HEAT/MOISTURE, AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING ON SATURDAY NIGHT, MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORM CHANCES
WILL BE REALIZED. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WILL SOAR 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE USUAL.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS
POSTFRONTAL TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. FROM THERE, THE
SIGNAL CONTINUES TO GROW FOR RIDGING TO APPROACH OUR AREA WITH MUCH,
MUCH HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, THE
SEVERE RISK LOOKS BELOW NORMAL IN THE COMING WEEK, BUT THAT DOESN'T
MEAN THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE ABSOLUTELY ZERO. SOMETHING SIMILAR
COULD BE SAID ABOUT THE FIRE RISK IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WHERE
PROBLEMATIC CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ONE OR MORE DAYS IN THE COMING WEEK.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA (WWR/PNC)
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE (<30%) FOR
A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP NEAR DUA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY
STORM COULD BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS.
NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BREEZY WINDS UP
TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 43 72 50 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 70 43 75 49 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 46 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 55 35 75 46 / 20 30 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 41 70 47 / 0 10 0 0
DURANT OK 71 50 72 50 / 10 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...23
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