626
FXUS64 KOUN 182316
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
616 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- MOSTLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THIS COMING WEEK.
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
MAINLY WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RETURNED, WITH HIGHER/GUSTIER WINDS
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA CLOSER TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS IN COLORADO/NEW MEXICO.
DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AS OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION TO THE NBM FORECAST WAS TO THE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TODAY AND TONIGHT (AND ACTUALLY THROUGH
TUESDAY). THE NEAR-TERM DEWPOINT GRIDS WERE ALREADY SIGNIFICANTLY
OVERDONE BY 10 DEGREES OR SO IN SOME PLACES, DUE TO THE NBM
APPLYING BIAS CORRECTION APPARENTLY TO A LOW BIAS THAT DOES NOT
EXIST TO THAT EXTENT WITH THIS POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. NBM DEWPOINTS
WERE HIGHER THAN THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS WELL AS
MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT OBS. SO REDUCED THE FORECAST DEWPOINTS
QUITE A BIT FROM THE NBM FORECAST.
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HAVING MORE WIND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES EAST, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN RECENT MORNINGS
AND BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A DAY-TO-DAY WARMING TREND. AGAIN DECREASED THE
FORECAST DEWPOINTS THROUGH TUESDAY AS MENTIONED ABOVE AND SURFACE
RIDGING PERSIST OVER SOUTH TEXAS PREVENTING GULF MOISTURE FROM
BEGINNING A RETURN TRIP TOWARD NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
ONE POTENTIAL THING TO WATCH FOR IS THE MODEL SIGNAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WHERE SOME MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY ON THE
310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. BUT WITH THE CONCERN OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, THIS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRIMARILY BE
VIRGA IF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS AT ALL, SO THE POTENTIAL OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WEST COAST MAKES ONLY SLOW
PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TAKES THIS
LOW WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST, WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO, AND HAVE
BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR AREA ACCORDINGLY.
CHANCES ARE NOW LIMITED TO 20-30% NEXT WEEKEND, MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES, WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
WARE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 15,000 FEET AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS A SURFACE LOW INCREASES.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 49 70 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 50 71 52 73 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 49 74 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 48 70 50 72 / 0 0 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 49 71 51 73 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 46 78 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...04
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