764
FXUS64 KOUN 011701
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
- SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OK. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
- HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN OK LATE THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL GO BUT AT LEAST
MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S (NW OK) TO THE MID 70S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL OK.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE/MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WESTERN KS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC, A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SE CO/NE
NM MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA. HIGHER STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN THE AREA ALONG THE DRYLINE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
MODELS SHOW MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN KS AND NORTHERN OK
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE/DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO KS. CAPE VALUES OF 2000-4000 J/KG
COULD DEVELOP MAKING SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS. HUMID CONDITIONS IN
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA COULD LEAD TO MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-
105 GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN KS/N OK MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
COULD DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX THAT MOVES SE/S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL PUSH A
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EXTEND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHIFTING TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD
DEVELOP FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO WHERE THE RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL BE.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY LEADING TO
"COOLER" TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE
ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE RAIN/CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL OK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
FROM KANSAS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IN ADDITION TO
STORMS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, ANY OUTFLOW
FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION.
DAY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 91 69 85 / 30 20 10 10
HOBART OK 69 94 68 86 / 10 20 40 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 95 70 87 / 0 10 30 40
GAGE OK 68 90 66 83 / 20 30 50 60
PONCA CITY OK 70 87 68 84 / 30 20 10 10
DURANT OK 74 93 70 85 / 10 20 20 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14
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