964
FXUS64 KOUN 270410
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1110 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1104 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT/TUESDAY.
- ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS LATE THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
THE UPPER LOW THATS BEEN TO OUR WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAY HAS
OPENED UP AND BEGAN LIFTING NORTH ACROSS COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP A MOISTURE
PLUME MOVING NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE,
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST. THE CLOUD COVER MAY AID IN LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THAT
AREA. SOME LOW CHANCES MAY STRETCH AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH
PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS PICKING UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS ON TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE
MODELS SHOWING A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE MID-LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
BY THE TIME WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE
EAST, BUT A FEW MINOR DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BY
THIS TIME, NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A ROGUE SHOWER TO OCCUR, BUT
FOR NOW WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT 10% OR LESS.
ALSO, WEDNESDAY WE GET PRESSURE FALLS THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE SOUTH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF. THESE STRONGER WINDS
AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
MEAN TROUGHING PERSISTS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
PACIFIC LATE THIS WEEK WITH A PLUME OF HIGH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WAVE. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE,
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE SECOND WAVE IN THE MODELS,
SO TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ARE LESS CERTAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
THE TROUGH BRINGING RAIN TO MAINLY NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA IS MOVING A
BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST. IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KCSM AND KWWR, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF LIFR AT KCSM
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAIN SHOULD EXIT OUR CWA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. ALTHOUGH NBM HAS SKIES
CLEARING RELATIVELY QUICKLY DURING THE DAY, THERE ARE SIGNS AMONG
SOME SHORT-TERM MODELS THAT STRATUS HANGS AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY.
AS IT STANDS, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY AS LATE AS MID-DAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER OVER
KWWR AND KCSM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 58 75 60 / 0 40 30 10
HOBART OK 77 58 76 60 / 10 60 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 80 59 79 62 / 0 30 30 0
GAGE OK 74 52 73 57 / 40 90 20 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 58 74 59 / 0 50 30 10
DURANT OK 80 57 81 59 / 0 10 10 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...01
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