190  
FXUS64 KOUN 251148  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
648 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020  
 
BRIEF FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS  
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH FAIRLY RAPID  
RECOVERY EXPECTED. VEERED WINDS WEST OF A DRYLINE WILL YIELD  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S, WITH THE HOTTEST  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED UP AROUND THE FREEDOM, BUFFALO, LAVERNE, AND  
GAGE AREAS. A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE  
QUESTION. A MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED GOING INTO ANOTHER HOT SATURDAY  
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020  
 
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR  
NEXT WEEK. INITIAL AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL ENTER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF  
THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW A STRONG (PACIFIC) FRONT TO SURGE  
OVER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. WHILE THERE WILL  
BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT, LAYER OF WARM AIR NEAR 700MB SHOULD PREVENT ANY PRE-FRONTAL  
CONVECTION. DURING THE EVENING HOURS, LIFT/COOLING FROM THE  
MENTIONED TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT NEAR THE FRONTAL  
SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS (MORE  
NUMEROUS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA). SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER  
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SEVERE STORM RISK WITH  
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN. EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE  
POST FRONTAL, CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH STRONGER  
STORM SEGMENTS AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION MOMENTUM  
TRANSFER. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE STORM CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE COLD FRONT, WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY  
NIGHT ACROSS THE WINDIER/GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED PORTIONS OF  
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY WELL INTO MONDAY WITH  
DIURNAL MIXING INTO FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO  
PROXIMITY TO DRIER AIR AND SURFACE RIDGE TUESDAY MORNING, CHILLY  
MORNING EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA WITH  
WIDESPREAD 40S EXPECTED.  
 
WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF LARGE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH, STRONG  
JET SEGMENT PROGD TO DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES,  
ALLOWING MORE OF A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR  
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS AIRMASS WOULD BE COLDER AND  
DRIER THAN THE ONE WE ARE EXPECTING LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE TIMING  
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS STRONGER COLD FRONT, SO WILL NOT GET TOO  
AGGRESSIVE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME  
FRAME, BUT CURRENT MODEL BLENDED FORECAST MAY BE MUCH TOO WARM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020  
 
GENERALLY UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS  
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTHEAST OF MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING.  
HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE FOG COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KSPS THIS  
MORNING, SO OPTED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS.  
 
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND BECOME  
GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING  
WITH THE LOSS OF VERTICAL MIXING.  
 
MAHALE  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 86 63 89 66 / 0 0 0 0  
HOBART OK 91 63 93 66 / 0 0 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 90 62 92 67 / 0 0 0 0  
GAGE OK 99 65 98 63 / 0 0 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 89 63 91 65 / 0 0 0 0  
DURANT OK 82 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...11  
LONG TERM....11  
AVIATION...10  
 
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