289
FXUS64 KOUN 081800
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
- A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT BRINGS BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH A HARD FREEZE MONDAY
MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REST OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
NOT REACH PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE, ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80.
PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING
SLIGHTLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH DECENT MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUSTS TO
30 TO 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL
DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT WHICH WILL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME, AT LEAST THE GUSTS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY
AT TIMES. SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY BUT OVERALL VARIABLE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
STRONG, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (~1040 MB), CENTERED NEAR NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY. BY
SUNRISE MONDAY, THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME
SUNDAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY, BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA MAY NOT REACH THE 50S FOR HIGHS, BUT SHOULD ELSEWHERE.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE'S SOME INDICATION OF HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA, BUT THIS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL INFLUENCE ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. A HARD
FREEZE IS STILL ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF
OKLAHOMA. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HARD FREEZE/FREEZE, THE
FREEZE WATCH WILL BE CONVERTED TO A FREEZE WARNING.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION BACK TO WARMER WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE
DAY WILL START RATHER COLD, THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL RETURN TO ALL AREAS
AND INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING (MOST AREAS), THE WIND WILL CERTAINLY ADD A CHILL TO THE
AIR FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
AS QUICKLY AS FALL IS GOING TO SWEEP IN HERE, BY TUESDAY IT WILL BE
NOTHING BUT A MEMORY AS ANOMALOUS WARMTH BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE DRIVER FOR THE WARMTH WILL BE A RETURN OF
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH
THE JET MIGRATING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ON TUESDAY BESIDES THE RAPID WARM-UP WILL BE
WINDS AS WE END UP IN A FAIRLY SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND THE LEE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN NEWLY DORMANT FUELS.
AFTER THAT, WE ENTER BACK INTO THE SAME OLD PATTERN OF NORTHWEST
FLOW, THE JET REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, AND DAILY OSCILLATIONS BETWEEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK COLD FRONTS WITHOUT ANY COLD SOURCE AIRMASS
TO OUR NORTH. WE CONTINUE TO SEE NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY AT LEAST.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
AS OF 1730 UTC, THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM KCDS TO
KCSM, TO KICT. THIS FRONT IS A BIT SKEWED, MORE OR LESS RUSHING
STRAIGHT SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WHILE TAKING A MORE
WEST TO EAST ROUTE IN OKLAHOMA. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO THE FACT
THAT THE 850MB TROUGH (AND THEREFORE FLOW) IS CENTERED RIGHT ABOVE
THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL JET IS STRONG, YET IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS
NEAR THE FRONT...KEEPING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE JET SOMEWHAT
IN CHECK FOR MOST OF THE MORNING.
THIS WON'T LAST, AS THE 850MB TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST,
AND WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MAKE MORE OF AN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST PUSH. DESPITE THE FRONT, THERE ARE ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WITH VFR CEILINGS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, SO VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE. HOWEVER, AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS EACH AIRPORT. INCREASING WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY FLYING TODAY.
FOX
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 40 48 25 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 71 40 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 44 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 64 33 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 68 35 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 79 46 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...21
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