607
FXUS64 KOUN 100455
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1055 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1053 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING; RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM.
- LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ON TUESDAY-EARLY WEDNESDAY;
GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
AN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OF FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS UPCOMING
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS. THE CENTER
OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HUG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
LEADING TO AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM (BY EARLY FEBRUARY STANDARDS) AND
DRY DAY TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. WIDESPREAD PEAK TEMPERATURE READINGS
IN THE 80S ARE LIKELY, AND A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY APPROACH DAILY RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 9TH.
AN EJECTING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INSTIGATE LEE CYCLOGENESIS
THROUGH THE DAY, LEADING TO A SHARPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS, AS HIGH AS 30-35
MPH, WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNSET.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG DIURNAL MIXING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 10% IN SPOTS, ACROSS
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE COMING HOURS. AMIDST
INCREASINGLY DRY FUELS, PROBLEMATIC FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. ANY INTRUSION OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THIS AREA LOOKS
MINIMAL THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE BURN PERIOD TODAY.
A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA
THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING, AND BURNING IS DISCOURAGED IN AND NEAR
THE WARNING AREA.
A STRONG SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN SENSIBLE
CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHIFTING (SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTH) AND
GUSTY WINDS (UP TO 40-45 MPH POSSIBLE). AT PRESENT, THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAYBREAK
ON TUESDAY.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
THE PASSING FRONT, AND INFLUENCE FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM,
WILL OFFER POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ON
TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR, AS A NOTABLE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AND MIXING INTO 40+ KNOT LOW-LEVEL
JET BEGINS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
BOTH FEATURES BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
WHILE AIRMASS MODIFICATION IN THE POST-FRONT WILL NOT BE OVERLY
NOTEWORTHY, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WHAT WE CAN SEE AT THIS POINT OF
THE YEAR, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL, WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH THE FRONT
CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL OBSERVE THEIR WARMEST
TEMPERATURE TOWARDS MIDDAY, WITH SUBSEQUENT COOLING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE I-40/44 CORRIDORS REMAIN THE EPICENTER FOR GREATEST
TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN 50S
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND UPPER-70S ACROSS THE EASTERN RED
RIVER VALLEY.
WE ARE STILL EYEING LOW-MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON, EVENING AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR, AS A LIFTING UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL FORECAST
TO REMAIN <0.25" ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY, AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE
MORNING AND LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP US COOLER THAN THE PAST
WEEKEND/MONDAY, THOUGH WE STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL (IN THE 60S).
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
AFTER THE UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MODELS SHOW
SOME WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SFC,
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK. RAIN AND MAYBE SOME STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS MONDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND IT. WINDS COULD GUST OVER 30 KNOTS FOR
A TIME TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OK, WITH SPEEDS DECREASING
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE WILL
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX INTO SOUTHERN OK LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. CEILINGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 81 53 59 40 / 0 0 10 20
HOBART OK 79 49 57 38 / 0 0 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 57 65 45 / 0 0 30 50
GAGE OK 82 39 55 28 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 79 45 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 80 60 75 48 / 0 0 10 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...08
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