111
FXUS64 KOUN 240645
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
145 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
- EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH "LESS HOT"
CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE MIDWEEK.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
A CORRIDOR OF SCATTERED RAIN AND STORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO
RAPIDLY TAKE SHAPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING, COINCIDENT WITH A
STRENGTHENING/TRANSLATING LOW-LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. A FEW STORMS HERE MAY POSE A RISK FOR STRONG-DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL OVER THE COMING HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO GREEN COUNTRY AND THE WESTERN OZARKS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.
A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. AIRMASS MODIFICATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EARLY MORNING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (I.E., OUTFLOWS, REMNANT
CLOUDS, ETC.) WILL LIKELY HAVE A STRONG CONTROL ON SENSIBLE
CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO IN
OKLAHOMA. HOTTEST CONDITIONS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED JUST SOUTH OF
THE FRONT IN AREAS LEAST AFFECTED BY AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS. FOR
NOW, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE AREA SOUTH OF I-40 AND ALONG/WEST OF
I-35. HERE, HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR 112-115F IS NOT OFF
THE TABLE (~20-30% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE). A DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 115F HAS ONLY BEEN ACHIEVED THREE TIMES (SINCE
1923) AT WICHITA FALLS AND ONCE (SINCE 1912) AT LAWTON. ELSEWHERE,
DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SLUGGISH START TO WARMING, HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE LATE AFTERNOON (AMBIENT HIGHS
95-100F; HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 105F). A HEAT ADVISORY AND
EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUE FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM MONDAY, AND HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED EAST-NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR AN INCREASING WARM SIGNAL
IN LATEST GUIDANCE.
SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES, THE NATURE OF AN AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
STORM RISK ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY WHAT OCCURS
FROM SUNRISE THROUGH LUNCHTIME. FOR NOW, WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
VERY LOW (~20%) MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL ZONE (I.E., GENERALLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHWARD) FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO MID-EVENING. GIVEN A VERY
HOT AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL
ENERGY, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD SHOULD A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CORES EMERGE DURING THIS TIME.
WHILE THE PERSISTENT HOT AND DRY WEATHER AND WORSENING/EXPANDING
DROUGHT IS LEADING TO MANY DAYS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS, THE ADDITION OF A FRONT MAY
OFFER A LOCALLY FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF MORE CONCERNING POTENTIAL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALONG WITH PRE-FRONTAL "TORCHING", A
LOCAL MINIMA IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITY (AS LOW AS ~13-15%) AND MAXIMA IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS (~20-25 MPH) MAY OFFER BRIEF PERIODS OF
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT SEEMS MOST APPROPRIATE FOR NOW - GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
DISCUSSED ABOVE - A TARGETED RED FLAG WARNING MAY BECOME WARRANTED
IF THIS HIGHER THREAT CORRIDOR EMERGES IN THE NOWCAST SPACE. AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO OOZE SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO SUNSET, A WEST-TO-
NORTH WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED SHOULD
ANY FIRES BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
THE COLD FRONT INTRODUCED ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE MIDWEEK. A NOTABLE NORTH-
TO-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY, WITH "COOLEST" (UPPER-90S) HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
IF THE FRONTAL ZONE CAN REMAIN MOSTLY INTACT (I.E., NOT GET "WASHED
OUT"), THEN ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF VERY HOT WEATHER (HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND HEAT INDICES >105F) IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH A SEMI-ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LIKELY TAKING SHAPE DURING THE EVENING HERE.
AS ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD, THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SPORADIC
STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THINGS CONTINUE TO TAKE A COOLER TURN INTO WEDNESDAY FOR MOST AREAS
NORTH OF THE RED RIVER, AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. UPPER-90S TO LOW-100S HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH POTENTIAL FOR >105F AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES CONTINUING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE STORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY
NEAR THE FRONT IS A BIT MURKY/LOW, THOUGH SOME SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
DOES ADVERTISE CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN-NORTH
TEXAS, AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED PERTURBATION ROUNDS THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE/STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL
SUBTLY RETROGRADE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, PUTTING A CHECK ON
TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DOOR OPEN FOR AT LEAST LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER "COOLER" (YET STILL ABOVE AVERAGE) DAY
ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, WITH UPPER-90S TO NEAR-100F HIGHS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS. THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD
ADVERTISE THE LOWEST/LEAST AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAT HEADLINES THIS
DAY, THOUGH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW SURFACE FEATURES (NAMELY A
FRONT) EVOLVES ON WEDNESDAY. IT DOES CURRENTLY APPEAR THAT WE BEGIN
TO WARM MORE NOTABLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AS ADVECTION OF WARMER
AIRMASSES RE-ESTABLISHES.
WHILE NO PERIOD STANDS OUT AMONGST THE REST IN TERMS OF RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES, OUR POSITION RELATIVE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST EPISODIC (LOW) CHANCES FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THE WEEKEND (ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA).
UNGAR
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CEILINGS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A FRONT AND SFC LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE AREA MONDAY WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE WINDS BUT IN GENERAL SW TO W WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MAINLY N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF
NW OK OVERNIGHT AND MAY AFFECT KWWR. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IN PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL OK. THERE IS THEN A THIRD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY TOO LOW IN SOME AREAS FOR MENTION IN
TAFS. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT/SFC
LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. IF STORMS DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, STRONG, VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 107 75 100 73 / 20 20 10 10
HOBART OK 111 75 104 73 / 20 20 10 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 111 81 106 76 / 10 20 10 10
GAGE OK 100 70 97 66 / 0 10 10 60
PONCA CITY OK 96 72 98 71 / 10 0 10 20
DURANT OK 107 79 106 77 / 20 20 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ016>019-021-022-026-030>032-042-043-048.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ023>025-027>029-033>041-044>047-050>052.
TX...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...25
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