273
FXUS64 KOUN 150524
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES MID-WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW
WEAK "COOL" FRONTS DROPPING AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR-
NORMAL.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH, WILL SWING
ACROSS OKLAHOMA TODAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
A WARM MOIST AIRMASS INTO OKLAHOMA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND
ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY BECKHAM COUNTY TO GRANT COUNTY. ANY OF
THIS "POPCORN" CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH
LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OR FORCING TO MAINTAIN STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
A VERY WELL-MIXED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED BY INVERTED "V"
SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG, WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY COLLAPSING UPDRAFT. THUS,
STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
DEVELOPING STORM. ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING
SUN AND COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SIMILAR WEATHER AS MONDAY, WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING
TROUGH AXIS POSITIVELY TILTED OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. DESPITE THE
CHANGE IN FLOW ALOFT, THE FORCING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEGLIGIBLE WITH
VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE MID-LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE, A SOUTHERLY WARM
AIRMASS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG WINDS WITH THE
ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, SIMILAR TO MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM WEDNESDAY TO ABOVE-AVERAGED
DESPITE THE RAIN AND INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINING LOW AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAILY RAIN CHANCES. BASED ON
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THERE IS A MEDIUM-TO-HIGH (50-70%) CHANCE FOR
GREATER THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED RAINFALL THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND A LOW-TO-
MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT NEAR-
NORMAL IN THE 80S WITH A FEW WEAK "COOL" FRONTS AND INCREASED
RAIN/CLOUD CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH OF
THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS KWWR AND KCSM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 69 90 68 / 20 10 10 10
HOBART OK 91 68 92 66 / 20 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 92 69 92 69 / 20 10 10 0
GAGE OK 88 63 88 63 / 10 10 10 40
PONCA CITY OK 92 67 91 67 / 20 10 10 20
DURANT OK 93 68 93 67 / 20 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...08
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