177
FXUS64 KOUN 291131
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 548 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH MID-WEEK; STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE.
- INCREASING HEAT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TOWARD END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN KS AND NORTHWEST
OK OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE ROCKIES, AND THIS HAS LED
TO BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER
FOR SEVERAL OF OUR WESTERN OBSERVATION STATIONS EARLIER THIS EVENING
(AND PRIOR TO THE BL DECOUPLING). SOME AREAS COULD SEE THIS RECUR
AFTER SUNRISE AND AS THE BL BEGINS TO MIX, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
THESE GUSTS TO LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS.
OTHER THAN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY, WILL SEE SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
STILL PRESENT (ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35), HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW 90'S THERE AND INTO THE MID-90'S ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 81, PEAK READINGS NEAR 100 DEG ARE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE LOWER TODAY WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES (NEAR 105) EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NEAR THE DRYLINE (WEST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN) AND A FEW
DECAYING STORMS MAY REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING WITH
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
STORM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OUT WEST, BUT THIS
MODEL SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS.
LOW STORM CHANCES RETURN EACH EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED
MID- AND HIGH-CLOUDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN
THOSE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. HIGHS OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE FORECAST TO BE
WIDESPREAD BY JULY 4TH WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY WHICH WILL DIAL
DOWN THE INTENSITY OF THE HEAT JUST A BIT ON SUNDAY.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO STAY IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS SOME STRATUS FORMING BETWEEN THE CITIES
OF LAWTON TO NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY PROPER SO WILL TEMPO BOTH
TERMINALS KOKC & KOUN FOR A POTENTIAL BUT BRIEF MVFR CATEGORY
CEILING THROUGH 14Z. WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OUR TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z DUE TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY FROM PARTIAL MIXING INTO
THE LOW- LEVEL JET AND EXPECTING THEM TO VEER SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST BY 14Z. BY 14Z WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20
KTS WHILE HIGHER MIXING WILL RESULT IN 30-35 MPH GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BY 01Z EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO BACK SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHERLY ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING THEM TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE FROM
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW STAYING GUSTY OVERNIGHT AROUND 20-25 KTS.
ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AT 40-50 KTS WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BY 06Z WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
RETURNING ACROSS ALL OF OUR TERMINALS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AFTER 02Z WHICH COULD
IMPACT FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR TERMINALS KCSM &
KWWR BUT IS WORTHY OF AT LEAST BEING MENTIONED IN THIS DISCUSSION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 95 78 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 99 77 98 75 / 0 10 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 99 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 100 78 97 76 / 10 20 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 93 79 94 76 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 95 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...68
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