684
FXUS64 KOUN 211134
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 629 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY; LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH
TEXAS.
- RAINY PATTERN AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
TODAY WILL BE COOL AND WET WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-60'S TO MID-70'S.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF I-44 BY THIS EVENING, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (3
TO 4 INCHES) POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
RADAR ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO APPEAR AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES AHEAD
OF A SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM WEST TEXAS. AS THE
WAVE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE, WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AFTER
DAWN. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AND COULD INCREASE TO PERHAPS 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR THIS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE AXIS OF GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH NOON (80-95%) RESIDE ALONG
THE I-44 CORRIDOR AND SHIFT A BIT ALONG/EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST TWO DAYS - NAMELY PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA (E.G., STUART, CENTRAHOMA AND MADILL). EVEN THE
OKC METRO, WHICH HAS RECEIVED UPWARDS OF 1 INCH OF RAINFALL, MAY BE
PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING DUE TO URBAN RUNOFF. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE MAJORITY OF RAINFALL EXITS THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH
TEXAS. THIS IS NOT THE MOST PROMISING SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS OUR AREA RESIDES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME
MORE DEFINED - BUT WEST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN - AND A WARM FRONT
MAY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. FOR NOW, SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES REMAIN LOW AND HAZARDS FROM ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEFORE
SHIFTING TO A WIND THREAT AS STORMS GROW INTO A COMPLEX ON FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER WEST-CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
DEG. WHILE THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, PROBABILITIES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WAVE. STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
BRING CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD RISE TO NEAR SEASONABLE,
IT APPEARS IT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AS WE GO INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80'S.
THOMPSON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW
CEILINGS. KSPS AND KWWR ARE THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BRIEFLY
SEE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AGAIN
TONIGHT.
RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST. DRIZZLE AND MIST IS STILL POSSIBLE EVEN WHEN THE RAIN
EXISTS.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 59 79 60 / 90 60 10 80
HOBART OK 70 57 82 58 / 70 20 20 80
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 59 84 61 / 90 30 10 80
GAGE OK 70 54 79 53 / 50 30 40 70
PONCA CITY OK 68 58 78 58 / 80 60 30 60
DURANT OK 75 64 83 65 / 80 80 20 70
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10
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