443
FXUS64 KOUN 190631
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
131 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
- HOT AND DRY THIS WEEK WITH DAILY HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN SOME OF ITS IDENTITY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS TODAY. AS AN EXTENSION OF THAT LOW THERE IS A
WEAKNESS AT 500MB THAT STRETCHES UP INTO NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS
TO GET WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BLANKET MUCH, IF NOT ALL THE AREA WITH A 15-20% CHANCE OF A
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO DAYS
BEFORE, MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE, WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY HITTING TRIPLE DIGITS. THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S WILL PUT THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY. EXCEPTION COULD BE FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE
THEY COULD GET CLOSE. WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR DURING THE DAY
TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, ANY
INFLUENCE FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEST TEXAS UPPER LOW GETS PUSH
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE TO THE AREA MONDAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS.
MEANWHILE, VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST WITH RESULTING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 90S TO LOWER 100S. PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL (AROUND 105).
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AND
ARE ALMOST FROM DUE WEST EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE RELAXING AND GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE DAY. PRE-FRONTAL
STRENGTHENING THERMAL RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF
THE YEAR TUESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 100 TO
107 DEGREES AND ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, STILL ANTICIPATE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 103-110 RANGE. HEAT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY LATE
WEDNESDAY, BUT ANY COOLING LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S COMPARED TO LOW 100S ELSEWHERE. AGAIN HEAT
ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS.
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY THURSDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING TO THE AREA. FROM THIS POINT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND
LIKELY LONGER, THE UPPER RIDGE, CENTERED NEARLY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD,
REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH NO REAL SIGNAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
PRECIP. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAILY HEAT
HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
PREVAILING VFR CATEGORY IS EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING PERIOD.
OUTSIDE OF LOW/INTERMITTENT POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AT KPNC & KSWO
NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING, ANOTHER DAYTIME PERIOD OF FAIR-WEATHER
CUMULUS AND WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CORES IS FORECAST.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 94 75 98 77 / 20 0 0 0
HOBART OK 95 73 98 75 / 20 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 95 73 98 75 / 20 0 0 0
GAGE OK 95 72 98 74 / 20 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 94 76 98 78 / 20 0 0 0
DURANT OK 96 78 99 78 / 20 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09
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