239
FXUS64 KOUN 041909
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
209 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
- SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW BECOMING STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE. MAIN HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- INCREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A MCV IS SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST WITH STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION KEEPING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHER INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING. STORMS
ARE DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DRAPED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS. BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS WITH SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS. SUFFICIENT
MLCAPE WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. AREA OF GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY, AN UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP PIN NORTHWEST MEXICO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP FEED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, BUT OVERALL THE FORCING ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER
OKLAHOMA. THUS, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL RELY ON DIURNAL HEATING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK TROUGH SETS UP CLOSER TO THE NM/TX STATE
LINE. IF A STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP, HAIL AND WINDS WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN WEST TEXAS BY SATURDAY. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BRINGS
LIFT AND MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY COULD GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN SOME AREAS AS HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING
SLIGHTLY TOWARDS NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SATURDAY WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO OK, THOUGH WE WILL LIKELY
SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION OF RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD OVER TIME AS THE
TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY SHOWN
CONTINUED STORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL US ARE NOW SHOWING THIS TROUGH REMAINING FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INSTEAD.
IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOTTER
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.
WARE
.AVIATION..(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THERE IS A 30% PROBABILITY FOR TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN & SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHICH COULD IMPACT 3 OF OUR TERMINALS (KPNC, KSWO, &
KDUA) THROUGH 00Z. ANY OF THESE IMPACTED TERMINALS COULD DEGRADE
BRIEFLY TO AN MVFR CATEGORY DUE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN RAIN.
STRATUS MAY INCREASE TONIGHT FROM OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP. FIVE OF OUR TERMINALS ALL LOCATED IN
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD DEGRADE TO AN MVFR
CATEGORY DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS AFTER 11Z. ALSO INCLUDED A
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF OUR TERMINALS
BETWEEN 05Z THROUGH 16Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS THROUGH 01Z, THEN WILL BE
BACKING MORE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS. BY 15Z EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS
TO VEER SOUTH AGAIN AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 88 70 83 / 10 10 20 70
HOBART OK 71 91 68 86 / 10 10 30 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 89 69 85 / 10 20 50 70
GAGE OK 71 93 69 87 / 10 10 10 40
PONCA CITY OK 72 90 72 85 / 10 10 10 40
DURANT OK 71 86 72 83 / 10 30 50 80
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...68
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