818  
FXUS64 KOUN 091935  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
235 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
   
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
- WARM WEATHER AND ELEVATED/NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
ARE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
- IMPACTFUL WEATHER DAY ON FRIDAY WITH CRITICAL/EXTREME FIRE  
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM
 
 
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
AFTER A DAY OF RATHER PUTRID SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY  
ALONG-SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR, MUCH MORE PLEASANT  
WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. OUR PREVIOUS WEATHER  
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON, BEING  
REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. SCATTERED  
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW CONFINED ACROSS THE OUACHITA RANGE, WITH  
LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EXPECTED TO  
CLEAR SHORTLY. UPPER-50S/LOW-60S WITH A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE WILL  
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.  
 
UNGAR  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
THE BEGINNING OF A NEW WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH  
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY, IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING  
NORTHERN LATITUDE UPPER WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF RE-ESTABLISHING  
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ADVECTION OF A WARMED/DOWNSLOPED  
AIRMASS WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE MID-MARCH NORMS  
BY THE AFTERNOON (IN THE 70S TO PERHAPS ~80-DEGREES ACROSS THE  
WEST).  
 
A TRAILING SURFACE FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED  
SYSTEM, IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BEGINNING  
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE OVERALL IMPACT TO SENSIBLE CONDITIONS  
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES  
COOLER AND A NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT EXPECTED IN THE POST-  
FRONT. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY FOSTER  
UPPER-70S TO LOW-80S TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS  
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
GIVEN EXPECTED WARM, DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER EACH AFTERNOON, AREAS OF  
ELEVATED/NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO  
EMERGE. CONCERN ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN  
OKLAHOMA, WHERE WINDS WILL BE BREEZIEST AND A LACK OF WETTING  
RAINFALL OCCURRED WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. TUESDAY'S THREAT LOOKS  
TO SHIFT TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHERE  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
<20% ARE MOST LIKELY.  
 
UNGAR  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
TWO STORM SYSTEMS APPEAR PRIMED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE LATE  
WEEK, WITH FRIDAY LOOKING LIKE A VERY IMPACTFUL WEATHER DAY ACROSS  
THE FORECAST AREA/PLAINS.  
 
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE OUT ACROSS WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS DURING  
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTATION IS FOR A PACIFIC FRONT TO RESIDE  
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BY THE EVENING HOURS. THE  
TRAILING AIRMASS IF FORECAST TO BE QUITE DRY (RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
NEAR AND LESS THAN 20%) AND WINDY (WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH).  
IN CONCERT WITH MULTIPLE PRECEDING DAYS OF DRYING ACROSS SOUTHWEST  
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS, ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A  
RELATIVELY DRY RETURN FLOW PATTERN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE  
VERY LOW (20%) AND FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
STATE.  
 
A MUCH STRONGER (POTENTIALLY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG) UPPER WAVE IS  
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL CONUS ON FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE, AN  
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTER (DIPPING INTO THE 970S (MB) ACROSS ALL  
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS) IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM THE FRONT  
RANGE INTO NEBRASKA/KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY. A VERY SHARP SURFACE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESPONDING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL  
PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN WINDSTORM ACROSS  
THE REGION FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING HOURS. AS WAS NOTED IN  
PREVIOUS UPDATES, CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE DEPICTS SWATHS OF >50-55  
MPH WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN ZONES, AN  
IMPRESSIVE SIGNAL AT THIS RANGE.  
 
THE CURRENT "MOST FAVORED/LIKELY" SOLUTION ALSO PLACES MOST OF THE  
AREA ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE BY THE  
AFTERNOON. AS WINDS INCREASE ATOP THE VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS,  
COMBINED WITH PRECEDING DAYS OF DRYING (ESPECIALLY TO FINE FUELS),  
A VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER SETUP IS EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF  
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. OUR LATEST FORECAST KEEPS MOST AREAS IN  
CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
UNGAR  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT AT KDUA WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE  
FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA.  
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH WINDS  
SHIFTING FROM THE NW TO SW THIS TAF PERIOD. PRECIPITATION HAS  
ENDED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KDUA. HOWEVER THE LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED  
TO END BY 18Z SO NO MENTION IN THE TAF.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 37 75 46 74 / 0 0 0 0  
HOBART OK 33 76 40 75 / 0 0 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 36 78 44 80 / 0 0 0 0  
GAGE OK 34 82 42 73 / 0 0 0 0  
PONCA CITY OK 35 80 44 75 / 0 0 0 0  
DURANT OK 38 74 45 74 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...09  
SHORT TERM...09  
LONG TERM....09  
AVIATION...25  
 
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