845
FXUS64 KOUN 021746
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1141 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S SHORTWAVE, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TONIGHT WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COME MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING OVER OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN AS VIRGA. HOWEVER, THERE
MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW WHERE SHALLOW MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE EXISTS
AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR, PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING, THERE IS A LOW-TO-MEDIUM
CHANCE (10-40%) THAT SATURDAY MORNING MAY FEATURE SOME FEW TO
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT WILL CLEAR
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DIG INTO OKLAHOMA AND
BRING COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE-NORMAL
BY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID-60S. WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THUS, SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST TO EAST. A LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A RETURN TO WARM SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. THUS, WARMER AND CONTINUED ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGHS TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
MONDAY A SURFACE LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO MOVE EAST. AS THIS
OCCURS, A SURFACE TROUGH AND PSUEDO-DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. WHILE THE STRONGER WINDS MAY REMAIN FURTHER EAST, THE DRY
AIR ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES THAT AGAIN
WILL BE SOME 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TO CREATE AN AREA OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. AGAIN, CLOUD COVER MAY
LIMIT CONCERN TO SOME DEGREE.
OTHERWISE, THE VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AS MENTIONED ABOVE BRING
VERY WARM AIR EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS RESULTING
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL INTO THE 70S AND PERHAPS A FEW LOW
80S IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
DRY AND ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY, HOWEVER WINDS
APPEAR TO BE MUCH LIGHTER AS WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY
SOUTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WE SEE POTENTIAL
PATTERN CHANGE AS STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST FROM THE BAJA AREA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MAY
BRING A CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER, SOME MODEL RUNS
KEEP BETTER RAIN CHANCE EITHER EAST OR NORTH OF OUR AREA. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION, REMAINS LOW AS
WE HAVE SEEN THAT AS THESE SYSTEMS APPROACH THE AREA THIS WINTER
THEY END UP NOT PRODUCING MUCH PRECIP. PERSISTENCE WOULD SAY KEEP
THINGS DRY UNTIL YOU START TO SEE IT RAIN. HOWEVER, NBM HAS KEPT
SOME 20-40% POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL NOT
DEVIATE FROM THIS FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WILL CAUSE A 30-50 DEGREE
COUNTERCLOCKWISE SHIFT OF THE WIND DIRECTION AT MOST SITES, BUT
MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KNOTS AND BELOW.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 36 53 34 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 65 35 60 33 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 39 62 35 / 0 10 0 0
GAGE OK 63 30 62 35 / 0 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 56 31 51 31 / 0 10 0 0
DURANT OK 71 44 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04
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