201
FXUS64 KOUN 291042
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FROM TUESDAY ONWARD NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
SUNNY, VERY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW-80'S TO LOW-90'S AND
ELEVATED (WIDESPREAD) TO NEAR CRITICAL (LOCALIZED) FIRE RISK.
A MID-LEVEL 45 KT JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER THE REGION TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE LEE-SIDE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER OUR FA. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 MPH EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN,
CENTRAL, AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE SPORADIC AND NOT VERY WIDESPREAD, NOR LONG-DURATION, AND WE
HAVE OPTED AGAINST A WIND ADVISORY TODAY.
DOWNSLOPING LOW-LEVEL FLOW (H850) WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE OVER PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 10 TO 25 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, CENTRAL,
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, AFTERNOON RH WILL
DECREASE TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING
AND SPREAD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE
DAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
EXCLUDING PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THOMPSON
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RAISE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES RISING TO 55+ DEG BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LEND TO A
LARGER AREA OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG
WARNING. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARING RECORD
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY, WITH A FEW OLD RECORDS IN
JEOPARDY.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY:
OKC 88/1904
LAW 90/1917
SPS 91/2008
ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN TO OUR FA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES PEAKING ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
THOMPSON
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH OFF AND ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN ALTHOUGH
NOT LIKELY TO BE A DROUGHT BUSTER. BUT, AT LEAST ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR A FEW DAYS IN SOME AREAS. MORE SPRING-
LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AROUND TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40
MPH TODAY. DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOON AFTER SUNSET WITH
LLWS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 82 61 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 85 58 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 85 58 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 90 56 92 60 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 82 59 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 81 60 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01
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