175
FXUS64 KOUN 210341
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1041 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEK.
- ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THE
PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ON RADAR IS STILL HAVING TO FIGHT LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR ACTING TO EVAPORATE THE RAIN, SO MUCH OF THIS IS VIRGA. SO
FAR, NO MESONET STATIONS HAVE RECORDED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA, SO THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED SUPPORT INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE A
LOT OF EVAPORATION SO PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
STILL RATHER LOW AT ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20
PERCENT, BUT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
SOME OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER A LITTLE PAST SUNRISE
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE DIMINISHING. AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
WESTERN TEXAS WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA MID-
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT ALL THROUGH THURSDAY THANKS TO THIS
RIDGE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME MORE RAIN AND MAYBE SOME STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY, RAINFALL TOTALS DO NOT LOOK AS HIGH (3+
INCHES) AS WHAT OCCURRED IN SOME AREAS WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF RAIN
EVENTS BUT SOME LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA,
MIGHT SEE AS MUCH AS AN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE
TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHEN/WHERE
RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR WHICH COULD ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON AMOUNTS
SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS COME TOGETHER.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
OCTOBER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH WITH MAYBE A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO PERCOLATE AT TIMES PRIMARILY IN
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. VERY LITTLE IMPACT
IS EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS APART FROM A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THROUGH 12Z, THE LIKELIEST TAF SITES TO SEE ANY SORT OF LIGHT
RAIN/LIGHTNING WOULD BE SWO AND PNC. VFR CEILINGS OF 10,000 FEET
OR MORE CONTINUE OTHERWISE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLIES/SOUTHEASTERLIES.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 54 77 56 79 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 55 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 55 81 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 54 81 56 82 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 53 76 55 79 / 10 10 0 0
DURANT OK 50 80 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...04
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