059
FXUS64 KOUN 040800
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
300 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
- WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DUE TO A PERSISTENT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAKNESS ALOFT. AS THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, SHOWER COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER.
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COULD SEE SOME CLOUD COVER LINGER A BIT
LONGER. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AREA WIDE, HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S DEG F FOR ALL
LOCATIONS.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS AND NORTHERLY WINDS, MONDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S DEG F
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S DEG F. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, SO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S DEG F (WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER).
BY TUESDAY, A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND THE
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER WEATHER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S DEG F.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN BIAS-CORRECTED
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS LOW, WHICH INDICATES HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
NO APPRECIABLE COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S DEG F WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
AROUND 90 DEG F (MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS).
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS BY ACROSS TEXAS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY; HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD
KEEP ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY FOR NOW.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TX INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH CLEARING THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG AND LOWER (IFR) CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING IN SOME AREAS, BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK
BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT (AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS) THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 82 56 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 84 56 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 84 58 84 56 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 80 52 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 79 53 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 85 60 86 55 / 30 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...08
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