615
FXUS64 KOUN 120700
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
200 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 200 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
- INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY.
- SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF
WIND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WILL
SPREAD EAST THIS MORNING. AND A SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE OKLAHOMA-
KANSAS BORDER WILL SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR MORE STORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TODAY TO VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2
INCHES, ALTHOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW POCKETS OF 2.25 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO STORMS WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCTION. THE AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY NOT BE TOO
WIDESPREAD, BUT LOCAL AREAS MAY SEE 3 TO 4 INCHES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR
THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTH, BUT THIS COULD INCLUDE THE OKC
METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH LOOKS
TO HIT THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND WILL NOT MAKE
ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GEOGRAPHY OF THE WATCH THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF ONE-HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WILL BE MORE COMMON.
THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
TODAY. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED TODAY. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG IN GENERAL. WINDS FROM WET
MICROBURSTS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN, ALTHOUGH HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. COVERAGE OF STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD, AND THE ISSUE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGER PROBLEM TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE FOCUS LIKELY SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A MORE OPEN QUESTION ON HOW WIDESPREAD THESE WILL BE AND WHERE
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STORMS WILL BE. THESE ISSUES WILL DEPEND
ON WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED, AND WHERE SPECIFICALLY THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND/OR ANY MCV IS LOCATED TO ENHANCE
THE RAIN CHANCES. BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO ADJUST WHAT AREAS
ARE COVERED BY THE WATCH.
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL MOST LIKELY SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO KEEP SOME
STORM CHANCES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
THE PESKY MID-LEVEL LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH A GENERAL
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. WITH
WEAK FLOW IN THE SOUTH. BUT THE RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD STRONGLY OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. OR THE PLAINS, SO TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF DOES BRING A FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY
AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. EVEN
IF THIS OCCURS, THE FRONT LOOKS TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND/OR LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, SO ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS
UNLIKELY. BUT THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SOME STORM
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE STORM CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON ANY WAVE IN THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THAT HAPPENS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO INFLUENCE
OUR STORM CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MOVE INTO AND DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW. BREEZY/VARIABLE WINDS AND BRIEF REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH. ONCE THUNDERSTORMS PASS BY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 85 69 83 70 / 80 60 60 30
HOBART OK 86 67 86 69 / 70 60 50 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 70 87 71 / 70 60 60 40
GAGE OK 79 64 84 65 / 70 30 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 87 68 83 68 / 50 50 40 20
DURANT OK 91 72 88 72 / 60 60 70 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OKZ008-009-012>048-
050>052.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...10
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