574
FXUS64 KOUN 041827
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
127 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA DUE TO BREEZY, WARM, AND
DRY CONDITIONS.
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.
- FROST AND FREEZE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH DRYLINE TIGHTEN UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR HWY 81
OR JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE AREAS
OF ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP. WITH GREEN UP OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE NEAR THE 100TH MERIDIAN AND FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THIS AREA
AS WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA NECESSARY FOR A RED FLAG.
OTHERWISE, WILL WATCH THE DRYLINE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP ALONG IT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A GOOD DRYLINE CIRCULATION DEVELOP
BY LATE IN THE DAY. UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHERE MANY OF THE MODELS HAD A
STRONG CAP IN PLACE, TODAY THE MODELS ERODE MUCH OF THE CAP BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION, WINDS THAT
ARE VEERED CURRENTLY BEGIN TO BACK LATE TODAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE.
THAT SAID, A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS DO APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS, ALONG WITH THE LIGHTNING. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD
THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.
ANY STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING RATHER STRONG COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA JUST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THEN BE NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
THIS FRONT WILL THEN TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT MAY CLEAR OUR AREA BEFORE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A STORM OR TWO BEFORE THIS OCCURS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SOME MODELS SUGGEST A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE FALLING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT A LARGER SCALE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ALONG WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THESE RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT (<0.10).
AS THESE WAVES MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY IT WILL BRING
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. AS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FROST
AND/OR A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS WE APPROACH THIS TIME FRAME.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTY DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD REMAINS HIGH. IN
BROAD STROKES, WE'RE LOOKING A MILD THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST MODELS KEEP US DRY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT THERE ARE A FEW MEMBERS THAT BRING PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY (LOW CHANCES).
DAY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IF A STORM DEVELOPS, DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER
STORMS DEVELOP AND THE LOCATION. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS WELL. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND A LOW
POTENTIAL OF LIGHT DRIZZLE FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 70 48 64 / 20 10 10 0
HOBART OK 61 73 46 70 / 10 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 69 84 52 76 / 20 0 0 0
GAGE OK 50 63 40 53 / 0 10 30 20
PONCA CITY OK 55 63 46 58 / 30 20 30 10
DURANT OK 71 87 55 73 / 20 10 30 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...01
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