136  
FXUS64 KOUN 132002  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
302 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT IN  
KANSAS AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO/WESTERN  
KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, A  
CAPPING INVERSION WILL PREVENT DEVELOP THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS THAT FORM TO OUR WEST AND NORTH MAY  
MOVE INTO NORTHERN (NORTHWEST) OKLAHOMA MAINLY AFTER 6-7 PM. WEAK  
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH-BASED CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS THIS EVENING. STORMS  
THAT REACH NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND  
SHOULD HAVE A REDUCED RISK OF STRONG WINDS.  
 
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY, AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS  
OVER OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
TO BE LIGHTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND  
HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX  
VALUES WILL APPROACH 105 ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT SHOULD  
REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL  
ROCKIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH  
THIS FEATURE, AND A STALLED WEAK FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN  
KANSAS, SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS  
THAT FORM SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE NORTHEAST, SO THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY  
SATURDAY. THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY MAY NOT BE IDEAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON OR  
EARLY EVENING STORMS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MAINLY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS  
IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  
 
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN  
WILL PLACE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD  
OF THE U.S. AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD FAVOR  
A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH ROUGHLY 700 MB. THIS IS EXPECTED TO  
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHANCES OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED  
TO PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
RATHER UNIFORM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THOSE WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
MANY SITES SEEING 15+ KNOTS SUSTAINED, AND THEN MOST SITES WILL  
DROP NEAR OR BELOW 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH  
MIDDAY TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE VFR UNIFORMLY WITH THE POTENTIAL  
EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING, WHERE A  
CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY IMPACT THE AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 0Z AND 04Z.  
GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
MEISTER  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 71 95 71 93 / 0 0 0 0  
HOBART OK 71 97 71 95 / 0 0 0 0  
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 0  
GAGE OK 68 99 69 95 / 20 0 20 20  
PONCA CITY OK 71 95 71 95 / 20 0 10 0  
DURANT OK 68 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...06  
LONG TERM....06  
AVIATION...04  
 
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