776
FXUS64 KOUN 100618
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
118 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
- LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.
- DRY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK BEFORE RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES RETURN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
TODAY WILL FEATURE PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST BREEZE
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN
FROM THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH A SCANT AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR
ZERO TODAY. TONIGHT, MILD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
THE UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR THE GULF COAST WILL PIVOT BACKWARDS
SLIGHTLY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STACKED SURFACE LOW. THUS, BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL CLIP SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE MILD OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN FLOW TO THE NORTH. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW AND
THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LEE TROUGHING
WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE, WITH A RETURN TO WARM
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. THUS, ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL BE HALTED BY A STRONG CAP DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY, MORE WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND
ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO HEAT UP AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THE INCOMING LOW FROM THE WEST WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN
REGION NEAR MIDWEEK BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN WITH CONTINUED WARM RETURN
FLOW AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 90S BY MIDWEEK. ANY
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THE LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUS MAY BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA,
ALONG WITH COOLER NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MID-MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20KTS. SOME AFTERNOON
CU AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 51 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 76 47 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 51 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 80 45 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 77 49 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 77 54 76 55 / 0 0 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...30
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