615
FXUS64 KOUN 301652
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1149 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
- A WIDESPREAD ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT
COULD BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-40.
- SEVERE STORMS LOOK UNLIKELY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
- COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WARMING.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TODAY. THE FIRST IS
IN THE NORTHWEST AS PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE COLORADO
HIGH PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND COULD MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED TO
BE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE SECOND AREA IS TO THE SOUTH. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS WHERE 850 MB (~300K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE) WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND SPREADING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE NORTH ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE. HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE A NORTHWARD EXTENT OF HOW FAR NORTH THIS PRECIPITATION
AREA SPREADS TODAY, AND WHILE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO REACH AT LEAST OUR NORTH TEXAS
COUNTIES, IT IS NOT GUARANTEED IF IT WILL, OR HOW WIDESPREAD THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT THE NORTHERN EDGE. NBM POPS SEEMED A BIT
TOO BULLISH WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS TODAY
GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS, SO IN COORDINATING
WITH ADJACENT OFFICES TO THE WEST, WE HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
NBM INITIALIZATIONS TODAY.
DESPITE THE SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
WITH THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS, IT WILL BE A COOL AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS.
THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS ABOUT THIS SYSTEM TAKING A
SOUTHERN TRACK THROUGH TEXAS WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. SO AGAIN THERE
WILL BE A SOUTH-NORTH GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH
PRECIPITATION LIKELY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AND DECREASING CHANCES
FARTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL STILL
BE LIMITED AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ENDING LATE FRIDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LIFT
PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AGAIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
RAIN (AT LEAST IN THE SOUTH) WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. THE HIGH AT WICHITA FALLS IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO GET TO AROUND 61 ON FRIDAY AND THE RECORD COOLEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR WICHITA FALLS FOR MAY 1 IS 57.
SKIES CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM,
AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH
STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REDEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A FEW WAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL CREATE A LOW
POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FARTHER NORTH.
CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST THAT A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF ONE OF THESE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES. WE
WILL WATCH THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THAT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OK AND
WESTERN NORTH TX THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE TOO
LOW AT TIMES FOR MENTION AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE AT KSPS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. NO MAJOR WIND SHIFTS
EXPECTED WITH NE TO E WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 50 67 45 / 20 10 10 0
HOBART OK 64 49 65 43 / 30 20 40 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 53 62 45 / 50 40 60 10
GAGE OK 64 41 64 39 / 30 30 30 10
PONCA CITY OK 66 45 68 43 / 10 10 0 0
DURANT OK 68 53 65 47 / 40 30 40 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25
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