620
FXUS64 KOUN 040347
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1022 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA DUE TO BREEZY, WARM, AND
DRY CONDITIONS.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MIDWEEK.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE WIND THAN YESTERDAY AND A LITTLE WARMER, ANOTHER
BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. VERY LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY, ALONG WITH WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE (MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S).
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
ON MONDAY, THE DRYLINE WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER TO THE WEST AND
A MODESTLY MOIST WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
VERY MINOR MID-LEVEL WAVE AND A DESCENT DRYLINE CIRCULATION, THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP
MUCH OF THE AREA DRY. WITH THAT SAID, SEVERAL OF THE MODELS,
ESPECIALLY THE CAMS, TRY TO OVERCOME THESE LIMITATIONS ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
DEVELOPING. IF THESE STORMS DO DEVELOP, LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK, BUT A
LOW-END SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE MAIN
IMPACTS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BY EARLY/MID EVENING.
WITH REGARDS TO THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE WEST OF THE
DRYLINE, THE ERC VALUES REMAIN IN THE 75TH-89TH PERCENTILE ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES TO ALLUDE
THIS AREA. HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSOLATION
TO A DEGREE AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE WINDS RATHER
LIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BURNING PERIOD EVEN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATE AT THIS TIME, BUT A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.
MONDAY NIGHT A RATHER STRONG COLD IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PUSH TOWARD THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THEN PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CREATE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FOR EARLY MAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.
THE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR NORTHWARD
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT AND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, DEWPOINTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THIS BETTER MOISTURE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME RESIDUAL CAPPING MAY LIMIT CONVECTION TO
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OUN CWA. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, UPWARDS OF 1500-2000J/KG CAPE AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KTS WILL BE IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE, FURTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTH A MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS BOTH
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE (60S AND
70S, BUT AGAIN WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY). WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DIP AS LOW AS THE 30S. NBM SUGGESTS A 25% PROBABILITY
THAT TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
ON THURSDAY, WE BEGIN WARMING BACK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PERIOD
SEEMS MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH SYNOPTIC UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.
DAY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
ALL OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN IN A VFR CATEGORY THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SURFACE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE ACROSS OUR TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE ISOBARS WILL REMAIN TIGHT ALONG WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH UP TO 15 KTS SUSTAINED WHILE AT LEAST PARTIAL MIXING INTO
THE LOW-LEVEL JET COULD KEEP GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 17Z WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL JET STARTS
WEAKENING A BIT. AFTER 18Z WILL SEE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
TERMINALS KCSM & KWWR START VEERING MORE WESTERLY AS A
DRYLINE/SURFACE BOUNDARY OFF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES STARTS ADVANCING
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MEANWHILE EXPECT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS GUSTING 30-35 KTS BY 18Z ACROSS THE REST OF
OUR TERMINALS ALL EAST OF THE DRYLINE. ANOTHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR INTO MOST TERMINALS BY 00Z. SURFACE WINDS BACK MORE
SOUTHERLY REMAINING BREEZY AND GUSTY AFTER 00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 86 63 73 / 0 10 0 0
HOBART OK 60 94 62 77 / 0 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 92 70 88 / 0 10 0 0
GAGE OK 56 91 50 65 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 86 57 66 / 0 10 20 10
DURANT OK 60 82 70 87 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...68
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