348
FXUS64 KOUN 160255
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HEAVY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK BEFORE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNS SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
RADAR SHOWING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA APPROACHING OUR EASTERN CWA.
WE ALSO HAD AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE OKC METRO PRODUCING 40-50 MPH
GUSTS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTH METRO CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE MOORE AREA.
WEAK TROUGHING WITHIN OUR UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE DIGGING
WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND COMBINED
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND A WEAK TO NO INVERSION CAPPING BENEATH IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUD COVER PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. WITH UP TO LOW-END MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR DUE TO WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS NOT
EXPECTING ANY STORM CELLS TO BE SEVERE OR ORGANIZE OTHER THAN
PRODUCING BRIEF BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. DCAPE VALUES SUGGEST
DISSIPATING CELLS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN THE DOWNDRAFTS BUT
BELOW SEVERE. SEASONABLY HOT TODAY BUT NOT EXCESSIVE WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
UPPER JET FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS WAY UP IN THE U.S. PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH CANADA AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WITH WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. WEAK SURFACE FLOW/WINDS WILL
ALSO PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
ACROSS GULF REGION MAY SLIGHTLY INCREASE SOUTH WINDS BY FRIDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET RETURNING FRIDAY NIGHT. A CUT-OFF LOW IN
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE STALLED OVER WESTERN THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR OUR AREA ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. WEAK
FLOW ALOFT AND UP TO LOW-END MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY
CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE ALTHOUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD SEE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH OUR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UNTIL THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. POSSIBLY
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NW FLOW POSSIBLY SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC, SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO MOVE INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE AREA AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A FEW DEGREES NEXT WEEK IF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A DRIER FORECAST IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING LESS OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. ONE CHANCE FOR SOME MORE RAIN MAY ALSO BE WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, BECOMING
BREEZY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN AFFECTING ANY ONE
TAF SITE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 89 70 89 71 / 30 20 10 10
HOBART OK 90 68 89 69 / 20 10 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 92 69 89 70 / 10 10 50 20
GAGE OK 91 68 91 68 / 20 20 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 89 71 90 72 / 40 20 10 0
DURANT OK 90 72 89 73 / 30 20 30 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...13
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