807
FXUS64 KOUN 241840
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. GUSTY
WIND AND SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BECOME
POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
MCV THAT DEVELOPED FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION HAS VERY SLOWLY
MEANDERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TX THIS MORNING WITH A
GENERAL SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE SOUTH. THIS MCV AND AFTERNOON HEATING
COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK. INSTABILITY OF 1000-
1500 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA SO IF STORMS DEVELOP A FEW
COULD BECOME STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING.
MODELS ALSO SHOW SHOWERS/STORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF
THE FA IN THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MANY OF THE MODELS SHOW
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FA. HOWEVER, IT IS
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION (10-20%) FOR A DISSIPATING STORM
OR TWO TO SNEAK INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BEFORE
COMPLETELY ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. IF A STORM DOES MAKE IT INTO
THE FA, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DESPITE A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE FA, MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE FA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING PLENTY OF
SUN, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN 60S.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
MODELS SHOW A CLOSED LOW THAT MEANDERS OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN/EASTERN
TX TODAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING IN TX. HOWEVER, IF THIS LOW TRACKS
CLOSER TO THE FA, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS AFFECT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
MODELS ALSO SHOW A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
THEN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN/HIGH PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH MODELS
RIGHT NOW HAVING IT DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA ALTHOUGH SOMETHING THAT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TO SEE
IF STORMS CAN MAKE IT FURTHER EAST THAN MODELS FORECAST. OVERALL,
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO ALSO BE DRY FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE FA.
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF RAIN CHANCES.
THE FIRST AREA IS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA, GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD BE DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED CLOSED LOW FROM TX LIFTING N OR NNE EAST OF THE FA. THE
OTHER AREA OF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
COULD DEVELOP THAT A FEW STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE STORMS MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THE SHORTWAVE FROM TUESDAY WILL STILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY SPINNING OVER NEVADA, WHICH IS PARTLY WHY THE SHORTWAVE
IS SLOW MOVING TO EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW OUT
WEST, WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND. LOOKING AT THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR GREATER RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE 7 DAY PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND DECREASE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT.
HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS ANY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT WEEK REMAINS
MEDIUM TO HIGH (40+%) WITH THE GREATER CHANCES LINING UP WITH THE
AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN THE LAST SENTENCE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
AREAWIDE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO RETURN LATE THIS MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF VERY LOW (~20-30%) CHANCES FOR THUNDER NEAR KSPS THIS
AFTERNOON, SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. WILL MONITOR FOR RENEWED PREDAWN FOG CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 86 63 85 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 62 89 62 86 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 88 63 87 / 10 0 0 10
GAGE OK 62 88 62 84 / 10 10 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 60 85 61 84 / 0 0 0 10
DURANT OK 64 86 65 85 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...09
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page