421
FXUS64 KOUN 190715
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
215 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 215 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
- SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, MAINLY
SOUTHEAST.
- HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES LATER TODAY.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THE FOCUS IS
SHIFTING TO THE EAST CURRENTLY WITH AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS
THAT DIRECTION. THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWING DOWN, BUT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY
AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL SURFACE INCREASES. THE STORMS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE FRONT, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH AS WELL.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND THE POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS TRAINING OF STORMS. THE AREA OF THE FLOOD
WATCH WAS IN GENERALLY GOOD SHAPE, ALTHOUGH WE ADDED MARSHALL
COUNTY TO THE WATCH AS THE AXIS OF FORECAST HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE WIDESPREAD EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHED, AND THERE IS ENOUGH SIGNAL FOR WRAP-AROUND
PRECIPITATION THAT SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH MOVED INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION, BUT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REDEVELOPS QUICKLY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH WARMER AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
THE NEXT BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES EARLY IN THE WEEK, AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE WEEK. AS THESE SHORTWAVES EJECT TOWARD THE PLAINS,
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN AFFECT THE AREA AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. SPECIFIC TIMING OF THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
MAY SHIFT AS WE GO FORWARD AS TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS
CHALLENGING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT ACROSS JUST ABOUT EVERY CORNER
OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY
DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR BY EARLY MORNING. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS SET TO BEGIN THIS COMING AFTERNOON AND BECOME QUITE
WIDESPREAD BY EVENING. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE CEILINGS BELOW 500 FEET AT
TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
A COLD FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 52 65 46 / 80 100 80 0
HOBART OK 61 48 65 44 / 60 90 70 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 71 54 69 47 / 80 100 40 0
GAGE OK 52 41 61 41 / 40 90 90 0
PONCA CITY OK 57 50 65 42 / 80 100 100 10
DURANT OK 75 62 73 50 / 90 90 80 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-018>020-
023>032-037>047-050-051.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ085-086-088>090.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04
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