926
FXUS64 KOUN 080627
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
127 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING & NIGHT.
- HEAT RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE, A
SHARPENING DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S TO THE WEST
OF THE DRYLINE.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN IS MODEST AT BEST, SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY THE DRYLINE, STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-
2000J/KG AND LIFT FROM THE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. AS THESE
STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY EARLY EVENING THERE REMAINS SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE CAMS WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS.
THE MODELS WITH LESS MOISTURE AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WOULD
SUGGEST A DECREASE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, OTHERS ARE
ABLE TO TAP INTO THIS BETTER MOISTURE AND KEEP SURFACE INVERSION
FROM DEEPENING AND MAINTAIN STORM STRENGTH WELL INTO THE EVENING AS
THE STORMS MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
BY SATURDAY, THE FRONT, LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS, WILL BEGIN TO
WASH OUT AND SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE SOUTH WINDS WILL TRY AND BRING BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND A
DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. IT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO SEE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY STORM OR TWO THERE. OTHERWISE, WE MAY
SEE SOME HIGH-BASED STORMS DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
FRONT. AGAIN, INITIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK. AS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IT SHOULD
ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE AND BECOME MORE OF A WIND AND
HAIL RISK OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH SOME LOW END SEVERE LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA AND COULD LINGER IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LATE IN THE
DAY SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-40 AND
LOWERS 50S FARTHER SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
UPPER RIDGING THEN BROADENS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
A FRONT THAT THE MODELS MOVES INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON
TUESDAY WITH A 850MB THERMAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR A VERY WARM DAY TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 100
DEGREES. THIS FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT RATHER QUICKLY WITH SOUTH WINDS
RETURNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST, KEEPING THE HOT TEMPERATURES
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME LOW-END LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE SOUTHWARD AND BRING NORTH WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
EXACT TIMING OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE
PROB30S WERE UTILIZED FOR A WINDOW OF STORM POTENTIAL AT MOST
SITES, EXCEPT WWR/DUA. IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP, ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND LIGHTNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 56 85 62 / 40 30 0 80
HOBART OK 90 54 91 62 / 20 20 0 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 59 90 65 / 0 50 0 10
GAGE OK 85 47 89 54 / 0 0 10 60
PONCA CITY OK 83 49 83 58 / 50 10 0 70
DURANT OK 81 61 84 65 / 0 30 0 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...23
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