348
FXUS64 KOUN 112245
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 519 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HEAT
ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE IT
WILL HAVE TO BE EVENTUALLY EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA TUESDAY
AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE POST-HARVEST
WHEAT BELT OF NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE SOLIDLY IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE RED ROCK AND LAKE CARL
BLACKWELL MESONET SITES HAVING REACHED 109 THIS AFTERNOON ALREADY
(AS OF 120 PM).
A CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN ALTHOUGH VERTICAL GROWTH HAS
NOT BEEN AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS. WILL STILL BE LOOKING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
RAIN AT ANY ONE LOCATION IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 105 OR HIGHER IN MOST AREAS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND LIKELY LONGER. LOW
TEMPERATURES RECENTLY HAVE BEEN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SOME
LOWER 80S AS WELL, AND THESE WARM LOWS WILL CONTINUE PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
HEAT AND THE WARM NIGHTS AS WELL, AND IN COORDINATION WITH THE NWS
OFFICE IN TULSA, WE HAVE ISSUED A BLANKET HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH
FRIDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WILL HAVE TO EVENTUALLY BE EXTENDED
IN TIME, BUT WE WILL START BY ISSUING IT THROUGH FRIDAY AND WORK
FROM THERE.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ABOUT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ON A SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA, THE
CHANCES ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW, AND EVEN IF WE SEE ANY
DEVELOPMENT, IT WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THERE'S NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT THE LONG-TERM PATTERN THAT HASN'T
ALREADY BEEN SAID. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO AND NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DAILY THROUGHOUT THE PLUME. HOWEVER, FOR MOST OF US,
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOOKS LIKELY TO KEEP ALL RAIN
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AWAY AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION TO THE RULE IS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. HERE,
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH. THERE'S ALSO A LITTLE LESS DISTANCE TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN FEATURES THAT WILL INITIATE DAILY THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS, LOW-END NOCTURNAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST IN FAR NORTHWEST OK FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REST OF US, EXPECT HOT, DRY, AND SUNNY WEATHER
TO CONTINUE.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
THE RETURN OF A GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND PATCHY DIURNAL
CUMULUS EXPECTED TOWARDS MIDDAY.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 102 79 102 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 78 104 79 104 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 104 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 75 104 78 105 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 79 104 80 103 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 78 102 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...09
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