311
FXUS64 KOUN 271056
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
556 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 554 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
- EXCESSIVE HEAT TODAY WITH AN EXTREME RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. TIME OUTDOORS SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH PLENTY OF
LENGTHY BREAKS AND HYDRATION.
- PATTERN CHANGE WITH A SUMMER COLD FRONT FRIDAY MAY BRING BRIEF
RELIEF TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH "SLIGHTLY COOLER", NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
TODAY IS LOOKING TO SHAPE UP SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD THIS EVENING. THUS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND SOME
AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA APPROACHING ABOVE 110 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, DESPITE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST,
DRIER AIR WILL MIX IN ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS, WHICH WILL BRING LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND KEEP THE
"FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. AIR
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES, BUT WITH
HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (60S DEWPOINTS) THE HEAT INDICES WILL BE
CLOSER TO 105 TO 109 DEGREES. SO WITH VERY HOT AIR TEMPERATURES IN
THE WEST AND HIGHER HEAT INDICES IN THE EAST, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON TO 9 PM.
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. THERE IS
LOW CHANCES FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS IT DECAYING BEFORE
REACHING THE KS/OK STATE LINE. HOWEVER, IF ANYTHING DOES MAINTAIN AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE RETROGRADED WEST OVER NEW MEXICO BY
TUESDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SADLY THIS
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL STILL EXTEND EASTWARD AND KEEP THE HEAT
DOME OVER OKLAHOMA WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT TO CONTINUE. SIMILARLY TO
MONDAY, SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND INCREASING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOWARDS THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND EVEN
SOME LOWER 70S. THEREFORE BETWEEN A COMBINATION OF VERY HOT AIR
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HEAT INDICES, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
ALONG THE ROCKIES WILL BE STEERED BY WESTERLY FLOW OVER KANSAS AND
HAVE LOW CHANCES (<10%) TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER, IF STORMS COULD BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD, NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
COULD SEE SOME DECAYING SHOWERS AND CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER WESTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT
AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT IS
STILL PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR "COOLER" TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. BY COOLER, THIS
MEANS A BREAK FROM THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND WIDESPREAD HEAT
ADVISORIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF AUGUST (MID TO UPPER 90S). THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY, BUT THESE CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 103 78 102 79 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 105 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 104 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 107 75 105 75 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 104 79 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 102 78 101 79 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ004>013-018>020-026.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ014>017-021>025-027>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...10
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page