658
FXUS64 KOUN 230631
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
131 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH HAIL AND WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY FEATURE A DRIER PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN AGAIN MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A LINE OF STORMS WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE. MOST OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL HAVE
ENDED AND MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL COME AS MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS MAY PERSIST WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING, CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
BREAK BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
FEATURE A LULL IN ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT
HELPS TO KICK OFF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
NEW MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS. SEE THE SHORT TERM FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THE STORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING STORMS TOWARDS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY LATE TONIGHT, LIKELY AFTER 10
PM. SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MINIMAL WITH A LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL JET
TO KEEP STORMS GOING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MUCAPE
500-1500 J/KG THAT WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE UPDRAFTS AS
THEY ENTER THE AREA. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, THE UPDRAFTS MAY BE
PULSE-LIKE AT FIRST BUT EVENTUALLY WEAKEN/DECAY AS THEY CONTINUE
EASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE OUR DRIEST DAYS IN THE FORECAST WITH
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN NORTH TEXAS AND
BRINGS WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE RETURN
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH IN TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SIMILARLY TO EARLIER IN THE
WEEK, MOST OF THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE LATE IN THE EVENING AFTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST.
HOWEVER, TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT TROUGH/LOW. BRIEF RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF LULL IN PRECIPITATION, BUT
IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EJECT EASTWARD, THEN ADDITIONAL RAIN AND
STORMS CHANCES COULD CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW OUTSIDE OF THE LINE
OF STORMS THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 62 81 63 / 50 20 10 0
HOBART OK 81 60 84 61 / 30 40 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 62 83 62 / 20 40 10 10
GAGE OK 76 54 84 60 / 40 20 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 78 59 81 61 / 70 10 0 0
DURANT OK 83 66 82 66 / 60 30 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page