545
FXUS64 KOUN 200453
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1053 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1051 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
- THERE IS A LOW-TO-MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
RETURN TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH A
MEDIUM (40-70%) CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB (HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S) UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WE'RE SEEING RADAR ECHOES IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MOVING INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA (AND HAVE HEARD A FEW REPORTS OF FLURRIES), BUT
MOST OF THE SNOW SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING TO REACH THE GROUND.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT,
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 50S TOMORROW UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES. EFFICIENT
MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO NORTHERLY (WITH
LIGHT SPEEDS). AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THE WARM AND MOIST FLOW WILL
BRING A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY, DESPITE THE
FRONT, THEN DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DAY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
UPDATE: THE NBM CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SNOW PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED. FREEZING RAIN PROBABILITIES
HAVE TIGHTENED ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
(BELOW) REMAINS LARGELY VALID WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES TO 40-70%. NOTE, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND IS INCREASING.
DAY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO 50S. HEADING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND THE WEEKEND, MODELS
ARE STARTING TO BECOME CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING
A VERY COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND LINGERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NBM TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
LOWERING FOR THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE MOST RECENT 19/01Z MODEL RUN HAS
BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THERE
STILL REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TIMING
OF THE COLD AIR. THE NBM RANGE OF HIGHS FOR OKC ON SATURDAY IS STILL
AROUND 40 DEGREES (WARMEST SOLUTION) AND NEAR 10 DEGREES (COLDEST
SOLUTION).
THE PATTERN HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS FOR
A CLOSED LOW TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALI WITH
INCREASED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM COMES INTO PLAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE LONGEVITY, INTENSITY
AND PRIMARY LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THERE IS A LOW-TO-
MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND A
HIGH (>90%) CHANCE FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME.
THUS, THERE IS MEDIUM-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WOULD BE SOME
SORT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE
CONFIDENCE ON HOW THE PATTERN ALOFT AND MOISTURE EVOLVE WILL PLAY A
BIGGER ROLE IN THE QUESTION OF "WHAT TYPE", "EXACT TIMING", AND "HOW
MUCH" AND THESE DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. AFTER
SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT, A SHIFT TO UNIFORM
SOUTHERLY WILL OCCUR TOMORROW. MAXIMUM GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 36 22 50 33 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 39 19 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 43 22 54 40 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 35 20 55 23 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 33 19 51 26 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 42 23 54 41 / 0 0 0 40
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...04
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