498
FXUS64 KOUN 101134
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 558 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
- WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS TO RETURN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN THE CENTRAL U.S. OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO CONTINUED
WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE S AND SW TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
A FEW OF THE MODELS/CAMS SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY MIGHT MOVE INTO NORTH
CENTRAL OK FRIDAY. IF THIS OCCURS, AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OR
TWO MIGHT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL OK LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE
FORECAST BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO SHIFT EASTWARD, THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE THIS WEEKEND.
AT THE SFC, BREEZY S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND AS SFC LOW DEEPENS IN E CO AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT A BIT EASTWARD EACH DAY OVER THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THERMAL RIDGE, THE WARM, ABOVE
AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX
COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING INTO NW
PARTS OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
AREA, THERE IS A LOW (15%) CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK
MONDAY BEFORE STALLING. HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO MOVE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND RAIN CHANCES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WHEREAS THOSE AREAS SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT
REMAIN LOW (20-30%).
UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN INCREASES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. HOWEVER,
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS ACROSS THE WEST.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 86 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 89 61 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 88 60 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 88 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 89 62 89 65 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 85 59 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...30
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