645
FXUS64 KOUN 131114
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
614 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE.
- NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE SUNDAY DUE TO
STRONG WINDS.
- DRY WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NEAR-RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE TROUGH
TRAILING A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
CROSSES THE AREA. A WEAK FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST WILL QUICKLY CAUSE WINDS TO VEER THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ONCE AGAIN BY THIS EVENING.
EVEN WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL END UP
BACK ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF OK WITH SOME LOW 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON SATURDAY AS LEE TROUGHING
DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTHWEST.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY,
HELPING SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MODELS EXHIBIT SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT BUT ALL
AGREE WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG BEHIND IT. ~6 MB/3HR PRESSURE
RISES COMBINED WITH 925-850MB WINDS OF 50-55 KTS BEHIND THE TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH. NBM90TH
PERCENTILE (REASONABLE WORST CASE) SHOWS WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND 55-65 MPH INTO CENTRAL OK. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MODEL TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO BETTER DETERMINE
WHERE/IF HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY. AT A
MINIMUM, A WIND ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS ALSO FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN OK, WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD FALL INTO THE
30S AND 40S BY MID AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER (RAIN OR
SNOW) ACROSS NORTHERN OK AS WELL, THOUGH DRYING IN THE LOW-LEVELS
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT HARD FOR MUCH TO REACH THE GROUND. FINALLY,
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST AN ELEVATED
FIRE RISK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TX
INTO SOUTHWEST OK WHERE AFTERNOON RH MAY DROP BELOW 30%.
WARE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
MONDAY MORNING WILL START OFF QUITE CHILLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND TWENTIES ACROSS THE AREA, REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS AND A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY SOARING TOWARDS RECORDS BY THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, NBM90TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 90S ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND NEAR 105
DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. THESE VALUES WOULD
BREAK THE HIGHEST MARCH MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT EACH OF OUR
CLIMATE SITES AND, WHILE UNLIKELY TO OCCUR, SHOW HOW ANOMALOUSLY
WARM THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO BE. WITH SUCH A HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS, EACH DAY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO FEATURE AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA.
WARE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME HIGH CLOUD
COVER IS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE DAYTIME.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 47 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 78 43 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 48 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 72 41 83 43 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 71 43 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 74 49 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...04
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