982
FXUS64 KOUN 180340
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- CONTINUED HOT TODAY, THEN BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE LATE IN THE
WEEK.
- INCREASED WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEK
- MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE OF OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON IS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE 15-25
MPH SUSTAINED, WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET, BEFORE THE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR
THIS AFTERNOON, AS HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE ALREADY PUSHED PAST 100
FOR A LARGE AREA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ONE OF THE REASONS FOR THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY IS A COLD
FRONT (YUP, YOU READ THAT RIGHT, BEAR WITH ME). A COLD FRONT IS
JUST BARELY BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO FAR NW OKLAHOMA, WITH NORTH
WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE, AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED IN THE PAST
HOUR IN HARPER COUNTY. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE ARE
SOUTHWEST SURFACE AND 700/850 MB WINDS CREATING A BIT OF A
BLOWTORCH AFFECT, HELPING CREATE A LARGE AREA OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING, AS THERE IS
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE AREA(S)
AFFECTED ARE IN QUESTION, AS MOST OF THE CAMS KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
IN EASTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, A LOW POTENTIAL (15% OR LESS) EXISTS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHILE TODAY AND EVEN TONIGHT IS FAIRLY WELL BEHAVED IN OUR AREA
(THE MIDWEST IS A BIT CHAOTIC), TOMORROW AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX. TODAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY, AND THEN CONTINUE TO PUSH ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNSET. COLD FRONT PLUS DEW POINTS IN THE
60S/70S USUALLY COMBINE IN JUNE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, AND THAT SHOULD BE THE CASE AS WELL THURSDAY. RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
DAY, BUT ANY ONE SPOT SHOULD ONLY SEE ABOUT A 30-50% CHANCE AT ANY
GIVEN TIME.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH GET GOING, HOWEVER, COULD BE ON THE STRONG
TO SEVERE SIDE. MACHINE LEARNING MODELS AND FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EVEN ALONG THE FRONT, IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OKLAHOMA AND OUR NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES MAY
HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THE ODDS ARE LOW, ONLY ABOUT 1%,
WHICH AT BEST IS VERY LOW ODDS. HOWEVER, ANY PLACE WHERE THERE
WILL BE BACKED WINDS ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS.
THE WINDOW FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY NARROW, ONLY
ABOUT ONE OR PERHAPS TWO HOURS. MUCH MORE LIKELY IS A SMALL MCS
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER SW OKLAHOMA OR THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN THE FORM
OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CALM DOWN AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS /
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY FRIDAY, BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 90
ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY,TEMPERATURES RISE AGAIN TO THE UPPER 90S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEN, ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BY
BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S AND DAILY STORM CHANCES BETWEEN
50-70%. THIS SOUNDS PRETTY GOOD, BUT THE DEVIL IS ALWAYS IN THE
DETAILS.
THE EXTENDED ENSEMBLES ARE CLUSTERED INTO ONLY 2...MAYBE 3 SETS OF
CLUSTERS THROUGH DAY 5. EVEN SO, THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN A RIDGE BEING IN PLACE OVER THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES, GIVING US NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. 71% OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN, WITH THE REMAINING 29% SHOWING
EITHER A WEAKER RIDGE, OR A RIDGE THAT IS FARTHER EAST. THUS, THIS
IS GIVING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED, WITH
AN ACKNOWLEDGMENT THAT A FARTHER EAST RIDGE WOULD PUSH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND/OR ARKANSAS. BY DAYS 6 AND
7, THERE ARE 4 DISTINCT CLUSTERS IN THE DATA, SUGGESTING A LOT
LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING
RAIN, AND OTHERS SUGGESTING A RETURN OF MORE HEAT. CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE JUNE, IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE HOTTER SOLUTION IS MORE
FAVORED, YET THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BEGIN TO SWAY THE
FORECAST ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
LOW CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS LATER TONIGHT IN PARTS OF N
OK. CHANCES INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE NE. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
THIS TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 88 67 86 / 0 40 80 50
HOBART OK 75 93 66 88 / 0 20 80 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 76 99 70 89 / 0 10 80 60
GAGE OK 72 84 62 87 / 0 20 50 30
PONCA CITY OK 72 79 65 84 / 30 60 60 20
DURANT OK 76 94 76 88 / 0 10 70 50
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ044-045-050.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ084>090.
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...25
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