165
FXUS64 KOUN 230630
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
130 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS WITH
THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING STRONG WINDS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EVER SO SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST TODAY AND WITH
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CLIMB WELL
ABOVE 100 DEGREES TODAY. SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL BE NEAR RECORD HEAT AT 110-115 DEGREES. THIS WILL
REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS
EASTWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER.
ALTHOUGH LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR, THE VERY HOT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES BELOW 20% AND VERY DRY
VEGETATION WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL ISSUE A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS FOR TODAY.
ELSEWHERE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS REGION TODAY. ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, SOME MAY SKIRT
FAR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM REACHING
100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. AN EXTENSION OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
THERE AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
AFTERNOON HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL MAKE A RUN AT NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING, MOST OF THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS WE
GO THROUGH THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET MAY KEEP
ACTIVITY GOING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN MANY OF MODELS INDICATE.
SOME OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT LLJ VEERS TO THE WEST AND A RATHER DEEP
LAYER OF WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS, ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA. MAY SEE ACTIVITY AGAIN DEVELOP NEAR OF JUST EAST
OF I-35 CORRIDOR AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY
MORNING.
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE HIGH
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS LOW WILL THEN
TRACK EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA NEAR OF JUST NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR
ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE SURFACE BOUNDARY. VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP A "PRE-FRONTAL TORCH"
TYPE SCENARIO WITH RECORD HEAT ACROSS THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH 115 DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS.
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. MUCH LIKE SUNDAY, A LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG, BUT STILL SOME
10-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. AT
LEAST A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES EVER SO SLIGHTLY WE SEE A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE SHOULD PROVIDE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE
UPPER RIDGE DRIFTING FURTHER SOUTHWEST AS WE GO THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE.
WITH THIS RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE, IT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL FROM THE PEAK OF THE HEATING THAT WILL BE SEE
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, IT STILL APPEARS THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH VFR CEILINGS. THE STORMS IN WESTERN NORTH TX
ARE EXPECTED TO NOT AFFECT KSPS AFTER 06Z BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND ADD A MENTION IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE, SOME
MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS IN PARTS OF OK STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY(IES) WILL CAUSE SHIFTING/GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 103 77 105 75 / 10 10 10 0
HOBART OK 109 80 109 76 / 0 20 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 109 82 111 80 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 105 73 102 70 / 10 30 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 95 71 97 72 / 10 30 10 0
DURANT OK 106 79 108 80 / 0 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ005-006-009>012-014>020-023>032-040>042.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ021-022-033>039-043>048-050>052.
TX...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25
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