183
FXUS64 KOUN 200347
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1016 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- COOL, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL EXCEPT THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
OUT. BUT WINDS ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO BE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS DEVELOPING AROUND THE
295K/300K SURFACES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ABOVE THE FRONT (AND THEREFORE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT) INCREASES THIS
TONIGHT. MOST MODELS (THE NAM BEING THE EXCEPTION) SHOW VERY
LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT
DECREASES. BUT THEN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE
WILL STILL BE IN THIS COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, SO NO SURFACE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A SUBTROPICAL JET, WITH PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE BROADER MID-LEVEL
FLOW, WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
CONTINUOUS MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WIDESPREAD MVFR ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE WE GET A BREAK WITH INCREASING CHANCES
AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING. OTHERWISE, EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF
MAINLY 8-12KTS ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 54 70 58 71 / 60 20 60 90
HOBART OK 52 73 56 73 / 50 20 80 80
WICHITA FALLS TX 56 76 60 76 / 60 30 80 80
GAGE OK 46 70 51 69 / 0 20 80 80
PONCA CITY OK 52 67 55 70 / 40 10 60 80
DURANT OK 62 78 65 76 / 40 30 50 90
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...30
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