270
FXUS64 KOUN 291549
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LESS HOT
CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
GRAVITY WAVES AND OUTFLOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE ARE MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS
THESE GRAVITY WAVES APPROACH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THERE IS EVEN THE
POTENTIAL IF THESE WAVES CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD, ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
LATER TODAY. ANY CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE INTENSE WITH NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, THE HEATWAVE CONTINUES WITH A ~595 DAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN NEW MEXICO CONTINUING TO BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON
THE WEATHER ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 100S DEG F WITH HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 113 DEG F. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES WILL
BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL, EAST CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE. THIS AREA WAS UPGRADED TO AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR TODAY.
MAHALE
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
THE HEATWAVE WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS WITH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUING TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. HEAT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED BOTH AFTERNOONS WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS.
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. IN RESPONSE, THE RIDGE
WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT/NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT--SO FRIDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WIND
SHIFT/COLD FRONT, SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE VERY HOT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH VEERED, SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THIS IS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS, WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED 110 DEG F (THE AIR
TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS COULD EVEN BE NEAR 110 DEG F).
THEREFORE, AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER, WITH STRONGEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING REMAINING
TO THE NORTHEAST, THE CHANCE IS ONLY 20 TO 30%.
MAHALE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
COOLER/LESS HOT WEATHER ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WITH MORE APPRECIABLE
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, THE
STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. AS A RESULT, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE NEAR 90 DEG F (NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA) TO NEAR 100 DEG F (SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS). IN OTHER WORDS, THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING US CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A SLOW
WARMING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT
AND ATTENDANT THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD--BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MAHALE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KPNC. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
AFTERNOON, THEN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 78 102 78 102 / 10 10 10 20
HOBART OK 78 105 79 105 / 0 10 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 104 79 106 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 76 105 76 101 / 10 10 10 10
PONCA CITY OK 76 99 77 100 / 20 30 20 10
DURANT OK 79 101 79 104 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>019-021>025-
027>031-033>042-044>047-050-051.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ020-026-
032-043-048-052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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