942
FXUS64 KOUN 261101
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
601 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 557 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- A ROUND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
LATE TODAY WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
- WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED BEGINNING TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE COOLING DOWN MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED
FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE GULF. AS THIS OCCURS AND THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS, EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND
EVENTUALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS OF 1.4-1.7 INCHES ARE
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF I-35.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
PUSH EAST AS HEIGHT RISES OCCUR FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL BE PLAY A
ROLE FOR LATER IN THE DAY, IT APPEAR BY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER, DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1500-2000J/KG ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION, BUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST INTO THE
EVENING ANTICIPATE A GRADUALLY WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION AS
INSTABILITY WANES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SOME RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35 AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. BY
AFTERNOON MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE WITH
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE RIDGING ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS OUT INTO THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUMES REMAINS AND DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN INCREASING
INSTABILITY.
THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BACK INTO THE 90S OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES
BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
SUB-TROPICAL JET COMING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE, INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING WESTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW
PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
THE 00Z GFS HAS COME IN MORE IN LINE WITH THE EURO IN A MUCH SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK. AFTER THE INITIAL INCREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES TUESDAY, ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING AN EXTENDED CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. I'M RELUCTANT
TO SAY THIS, BUT THIS WOULD BRING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF FLOODING RAINFALL, BELIEVE IT OR NOT AS WE GO THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING, BUT
MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG/NORTH OF I-44 WILL SEE AT LEAST BRIEF
RAIN/LIGHTNING THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 10 AM. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES, AND GENERALLY DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE,
WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 5,000+ FEET ACROSS THE AREA
REGARDLESS OF RAIN.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 69 91 70 / 40 40 20 10
HOBART OK 90 68 92 68 / 20 40 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 69 98 70 / 20 40 20 10
GAGE OK 88 63 87 62 / 10 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 84 65 85 65 / 70 60 20 10
DURANT OK 93 69 96 70 / 0 20 30 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page