005
FXUS64 KOUN 011131
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
- FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT AND DRY FUELS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
CENTER OF THE ~596 DAM UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TODAY. WITH THE HIGH NOT BEING CENTER OVER THE
REGION, WE WILL NOT SEE SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
YEAR BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 98F TO 103F. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 105F POSSIBLE IN SE PARTS OF THE FA WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE/MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
OVERALL, MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT BETTER TODAY COMPARED TO THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH RH DROPPING TO THE 20-35% RANGE ACROSS THE FA. WITH
THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY, ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN TERMS OF WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
WITH THE VERY DRY, DROUGHT-STRICKEN VEGETATION, THE FUELS ARE
STILL SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDFIRES.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD, CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST
OF LOUISIANA, IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TUESDAY EVENING.
MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVING N OR NW ACROSS EASTERN TX.
UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS ALSO SHOW THE REMNANTS
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING BEFORE IT CAN MOVE INTO/NEAR THE FA.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT IF THIS SYSTEM
DOES MAKE IT CLOSER OR INTO THE FA, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
MIGHT OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE FA WITH SOUTHEAST PORTIONS HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE KEEPING MINIMUM RH
ABOVE 20% ACROSS THE AREA. THESE RHS ALONG WITH WINDS NOT BEING TOO
STRONG WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS TOO LOW TO MEET ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE VERY DRY VEGETATION WILL STILL
REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO WILDFIRES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT, WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS. WITH THE
INCREASING HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES BOTH DAYS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
"COOLER" THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
EDOUARD BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE REACH OF THE TROPICAL STORM
REMNANTS THE FULL IMPACT OF ANY CLOUD COVER ON THE TEMPERATURES IS
UNCERTAIN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING WEST BACK OVER THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO HOT, HUMID, AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
HIGHS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S/TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES EACH AFTERNOON WITH
105+ HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FA.
IN TERMS OF THE WEATHER PARAMETERS, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, WITH THE VERY DRY VEGETATION, THE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE FA RECEIVES
RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 6000 TO 9000 FT AGL.
WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BEFORE
BACKING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
MAHALE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 99 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 101 74 101 74 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 101 75 101 74 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 100 72 101 72 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 100 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 100 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...10
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