138
FXUS64 KOUN 111604
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1059 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS.
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
MORE SEASONABLE/COOLER TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN & STORMS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY, AND EXPAND ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
ANOTHER HOT, DRY AND WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS A REGIONAL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. UNSEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-90S READINGS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS/GUSTS MAY ALSO BE A
TOUCH STRONGER (MORE FREQUENTLY >30-35 MPH) COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ONE-HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
WHILE A SLOW INFLUX OF "RICHER" SURFACE MOISTURE WILL PREVENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM TUMBLING (I.E., FALLING BELOW 20%) DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, HOT
TEMPERATURES AND SLOW DEGRADATION OF SHORT-RESPONSE FUELS WILL
AGAIN OFFER POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
WESTERN EXTENTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCORDINGLY, A RANGELAND
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) IS IN PLACE FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM TODAY.
UNGAR
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER ROLLS ON INTO MONDAY,
AS STRONGER MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE
ROCKIES. LOW POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, THOUGH
ANY DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS HERE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE PRIOR TO
IMPACTING THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
EVENING.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MORE CHANGEABLE, INCLUDING RENEWED CHANCES
FOR RAIN/STORMS, AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. WHILE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE NOTABLY HOT FOR THIS POINT IN FALL
(UPPER-80S TO LOW-90S), WE HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS 1-4 DEGREES
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ITERATIONS. THE PRIMARY REASON TO
NOTE THIS IS THE REDUCED POTENTIAL FOR ACHIEVING DAILY RECORDS
FOR OCTOBER 13TH.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS A LEAD WAVE PERTURBATION
(REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON) SLIDES ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR. STRONG
PRECEDING MOISTURE FLUX, INCREASING MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND
WARM TEMPERATURES ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEGREE OF
STRONG-SEVERE STORM RISK, WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL EXPECTED.
UNGAR
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE PRIMARY MESSAGE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINY/STORMY PERIODS AND EVENTUALLY A DROP
IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MORE TRADITIONAL FALL-LIKE READINGS.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND INTENSIFYING SUBTROPICAL JET LOOK TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD. IT IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT
THAT THAT PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MAY
BE EMBEDDED/WEAKER SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE SUBTROPICAL JET, AS
OPPOSED TO THE LARGER POLAR-ORIGINATING TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS.
THIS ONLY ACTS TO INCREASE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
BETTER PRECIPITATIVE CHANCE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE PICTURE
BECOMES EVEN MUDDIER WHEN ADDING THE ARRIVAL OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. AT
LEAST EPISODIC ROUNDS/AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE
PERIOD, AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR OBLIGATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHECK
BACK IN AS THESE PERIODS OF GREATER COVERAGE ARE IDENTIFIED FOR
YOUR AREA(S) OF INTEREST.
NOT ALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME IN THE FORM OF BENIGN FALL
SHOWERS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING
AND STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
EVENTUALLY, AS A STRONGER/FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST, A REINFORCED FRONTAL
INTRUSION IS LIKELY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. FOR NOW,
THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR BY FRIDAY, WITH THE RETURN OF NEAR TO
POSSIBLY BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THIS TIME.
UNGAR
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
LLWS (40 TO 45 KNOTS) IS ANTICIPATED BEGINNING LATE EVENING AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT FOR MOST SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 68 89 73 90 / 0 0 0 10
HOBART OK 68 91 73 91 / 0 0 0 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 92 73 92 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 67 91 71 88 / 0 0 0 40
PONCA CITY OK 70 90 71 93 / 0 0 0 20
DURANT OK 65 88 72 90 / 0 0 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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