200
FXUS64 KOUN 272325
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOME AREAS EAST OF I-35 COULD SEE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHILE
A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL &
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WEST.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH
THE UPPER HIGH RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND ONE OF THE CLOSED LOWS OVER THE U.S. WEST. DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN
PLAINS ALL OVER A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THROUGH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD PERSIST WELL THROUGH THIS
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE DRYLINE STAYING FAR TO OUR WEST.
WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND FORCING UP THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WILL
MAINTAIN A "WET" FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS POTENTIALLY BECOMING CONVECTIVE AS
DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASES.
AN OVERNIGHT MCV OVER NORTHERN TEXAS EAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS
OKLAHOMA. CURRENTLY SEEING WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL BY THE EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. WITH A
PW OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES WITH THE MCV WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
RAINFALL RATES FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAINLY EAST OF I-35.
A SECOND AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
NORTHERN TEXAS WHERE A CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD INITIATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
WEAK CAP HOLDING ACROSS OUR AREA IT COULD BREAK ACROSS PARTS OF OUR
WESTERN CWA WHERE MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL MODERATE INSTABILITY OFF
THE SURFACE ALTHOUGH WEAKLY SHEARED. ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL FORCING
FROM THE TROUGH WILL ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS
OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL BE
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS MOST
WIDESPREAD, IT DOES EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE A FEW OF THESE STORM CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL & DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDOWN. ONE
SPOILER WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SURFACE MIXING WILL BE OUR
CLOUD COVER & DIURNAL HEATING. ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES AREAWIDE ON SATELLITE SOME OF THE LOWER-BASED CLOUDS
COULD SCATTER IN SOME PLACES ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN DEVELOPS ALTHOUGH
STILL LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST BROKEN WITH MID TO HIGH BASED CLOUDS. FOR
TONIGHT WILL KEEP RAIN/STORM POPS HIGHEST ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA AT
40-60% TO LOWER POPS 15-30% ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVER OUR AREA ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW CLOSING
OVER THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY THEN OPENING
AGAIN FRIDAY. A PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SOME RAIN/STORM POPS WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE FORCING MAY BE
STRONGEST. THURSDAY OVERNIGHT MIGHT SEE A LULL IN RAIN/STORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40.
TEMPERATUREWISE, WE WILL START TO SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLY AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH NEAR 90 DEGREE HIGHS ACROSS OUR COUNTIES
IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IT COULD
FEEL A BIT MUGGIER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA WHERE THOSE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
BEYOND FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA. POPS
BEYOND SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL REMAIN
LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING WESTERN OKLAHOMA FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE
STORMS COULD BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING. CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO
MVFR FOR MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 80 63 84 / 40 40 30 20
HOBART OK 61 84 63 87 / 60 30 10 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 85 65 89 / 30 30 0 10
GAGE OK 58 80 60 84 / 70 30 20 40
PONCA CITY OK 64 78 63 83 / 70 80 40 20
DURANT OK 66 84 68 86 / 20 30 20 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...01
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