511
FXUS64 KOUN 160259
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
959 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 956 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY, HOT WEDNESDAY, THEN BACK CLOSER TO
AVERAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.
- INCREASED WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO RAISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN GENERALLY
GOOD SHAPE FOR TODAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS TONIGHT. THERE IS A QPF SIGNAL IN
MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODELS AND MANY OF THE CAMS OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT, AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST SIGNAL REMAINS NORTH IN KANSAS,
HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA OF THE MENTION OF SLIGHTS CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT NEAR OR MORE LIKELY NORTH OF THE KANSAS
BORDER WHILE SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT. AGAIN, THE
BEST SIGNAL IS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO
KEEP 20 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY, HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AND WITH THIS...
ANOTHER HOT DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WEST AND 90S ELSEWHERE, AND TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDEX VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY. BUT AGAIN, A COLD FRONT OVER
KANSAS WILL PUSH TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER OR INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BUILDING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY, BUT CHANCES
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD RATHER QUICKLY AS WELL AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE AND INTO TEXAS. MODELS DIFFER SOME ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO BEFORE LIKELY STALLING. CURRENTLY WILL KEEP
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IF THE FRONT MOVES A BIT FURTHER SOUTH BETTER
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO LIKELY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH.
THIS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL
(MID/UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S).
A BIT WARMER ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN AND CAN NOT RULE OUT
A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE, BUT WILL
LACK ANY ORGANIZATION AS FLOW ALOFT IS VERY WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
PRIMARY AVIATION CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR-TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
RETURN/REINVIGORATION OF STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. 3,000
FOOT CEILINGS ARE NOTED NOT FAR AWAY IN CHOCTAW COUNTY, AND SOME
NORTHWARD RETURN OF THOSE CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DESPITE
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS. BY LATE MORNING, FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA AS WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 82 63 90 72 / 10 0 10 10
HOBART OK 84 63 92 72 / 20 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 85 65 92 72 / 20 0 10 10
GAGE OK 84 62 91 72 / 0 20 20 20
PONCA CITY OK 81 63 90 72 / 0 20 30 20
DURANT OK 83 69 88 73 / 20 10 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04
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