890
FXUS64 KOUN 250405
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020
IT'S BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS OK AND PORTIONS OF NORTH TX THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/MCV OVER CENTRAL TX. AS A
RESULT, AN AREA OF MOIST CONVECTION IS STARTING TO BLOSSOM NEAR THE
RED RIVER. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EXTENDING FROM PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS WICHITA FALLS, EAST TO ATOKA. SOME HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS
HERE BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ORGANIZATION WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PRESENT.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL OCCUR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OK/N TX AS A SIMILAR
SCENARIO TO LAST NIGHT UNFOLDS. EXPECT EVEN MORE CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE AND STALLING COLD FRONT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE PANHANDLES, AND THEN PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT OVER THE
EXTREME WEST, WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND WIND DAMAGE THEN POSSIBLY
MOVING FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS MOST SOLUTIONS, AGAIN,
WANT TO DISSIPATE THIS LINE A BIT TOO EARLY ESPECIALLY WITH MORE MID
TO UPPER LIFT MOVING OUT OF WEST TX TONIGHT COMBINED WITH LLJ
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SO WILL KEEP SOME CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH 12Z MON FROM SOUTHERN OKC METRO INTO THE RED RIVER.
AFTER THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WANES TOMORROW MORNING, SOME
REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALVES OF OK
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID TO UPPER VORT MAX. A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE
THE FINAL, MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT AGAIN RESULT IN
REDEVELOPMENT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. BY THIS
TIME INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE FA WILL BE ON A DOWNTREND SO DO NOT
EXPECT GIANT HAIL PRODUCERS, BUT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HEATING ACROSS SE OK/NEAR RED RIVER COULD
RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE STORMS BY MON AFTERNOON/EVE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CLOSING
OFF, WITH AN UPPER LOW LIKELY CENTERED SOMEWHERE ALONG THE RED RIVER
BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST SOLUTION THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, WHICH MAY TEND TO
FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS AND FLOODING THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON (OR
POTENTIALLY EVEN SOUTH OF OUR AREA ALTOGETHER). HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING REGARDING THE DETAILS ON HOW
THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AND EXACTLY WHERE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL SET UP.
FOR NOW, HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE LOW
SLOWLY MEANDERS OVER THE REGION. AS WE GET TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR LESS WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN LOW. CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2020
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WITH
THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS IN IFR CEILINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 73 60 72 / 70 70 50 50
HOBART OK 62 73 57 72 / 80 50 50 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 64 75 61 72 / 80 60 70 50
GAGE OK 59 69 53 74 / 80 40 30 30
PONCA CITY OK 65 74 60 74 / 40 80 60 50
DURANT OK 65 76 63 75 / 40 50 80 80
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...09
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