527
FXUS64 KOUN 200347
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1044 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
- MOSTLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THIS COMING WEEK.
- SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
MAINLY WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN OK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
DESPITE THE RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN, THERE ARE STILL A COUPLE
OF THINGS TO TALK ABOUT. FIRST, MANY MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
LOW QPF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING ON THE 315K ISENTROPIC SURFACE AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE DID END UP WITH SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH THE ISENTROPIC
SIGNAL WAS NOT AS STRONG. NO MESONET STATIONS REPORTED MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SO THIS WAS PRIMARILY VIRGA OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. WITH
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIGURATION FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT, WE DO EXPECT
SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT SHOWERS BEING ELEVATED AND
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR HELPING TO EVAPORATE FALLING PRECIPITATION, AGAIN
EXPECT IT WILL GENERALLY BE VIRGA AND/OR SPRINKLES, ALTHOUGH SMALL
SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WILL KEEP THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT, BUT ADD THE MENTION OF
SPRINKLES.
ALSO AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, NBM IS INITIALIZING/FORECASTING
DEWPOINTS TOO HIGH. WILL BE LOWERING DEWPOINTS TONIGHT (AND INTO
WEDNESDAY).
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA/SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH
KANSAS, AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE AFTER THAT
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST, THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS MORE STRONGLY INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE 588 DM
500 MB CONTOUR HAS BUILT INTO AT LEAST WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US MAKES SLOW PROGRESS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR WEST ACROSS NM INTO THE
PANHANDLES.
TROUGHING IS THEN FORECASTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD LATER
IN THE WEEKEND WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASING THEREAFTER ON
WHETHER WE SEE RIDGING RETURN TO THE REGION OR ADDITIONAL
TROUGHING DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US. EITHER WAY, IT APPEARS
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
ELEVATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN NW OKLAHOMA, BUT LITTLE IS ACTUALLY
REACHING THE GROUND. CEILINGS CONTINUE TO BE VFR (AT LEAST 10,000
FEET), THOUGH THE ELEVATED CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN BURSTS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOME 15-20
KNOT GUSTS DURING THE DAYTIME, CALMING AT SUNSET.
MEISTER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 51 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 71 51 73 54 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 75 53 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 70 49 72 53 / 0 10 10 20
PONCA CITY OK 71 50 72 51 / 0 0 10 10
DURANT OK 78 50 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...04
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