823
FXUS64 KOUN 301044
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
544 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 542 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
- NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO NEAR/SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TODAY AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, MAKING FOR QUITE PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY LATE, BUT REMAINING LIGHT.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL YIELD INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. FORECAST WIND PROFILES SHOW MODEST
FLOW ALOFT BUT STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURNING WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE MAGNITUDE, BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
AVERAGE, OR IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AREAWIDE.
WARE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING DRYLINE
WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM WITHIN BROADER WESTERN US TROUGHING. THE FIRST OF SUCH
WAVES IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING
RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE KEY AS TO WHERE THE
HIGHEST RISK FOR STORMS WILL BE, BUT AS OF NOW TUESDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE MORE FAVORABLE DAY FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE WAVE MAY NOT
REACH OUR AREA BY PEAK HEATING MONDAY. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY BUT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
FRONT MAY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO THE AREA.
WARE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WILL DIMINISH TODAY, AND CEILINGS
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS. RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, EXCEPT IN THE
WEST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 85 63 82 / 0 0 40 10
HOBART OK 59 87 62 87 / 0 10 30 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 87 65 87 / 0 0 30 20
GAGE OK 58 88 59 85 / 0 0 20 10
PONCA CITY OK 55 86 60 84 / 0 10 30 10
DURANT OK 60 84 65 83 / 0 0 40 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...26
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