333
FXUS64 KOUN 061058
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
458 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 454 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY EAST OF
I-35.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA/WESTERN-NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND RETURNING
TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL RETURNS NEXT TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD (THROUGH ABOUT 2 OR 3 AM) WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AS THE MAIN CONCERN.
FRIDAY WILL BE A DUEL THREAT DAY, WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN
THE WEST AND A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE EAST.
FIRE WEATHER: GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WEST OF
A DRYLINE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS SHOW RH VALUES AS LOW AS 7 TO 10
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WILL ONLY HAVE A PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
SKIES LOOK TO BE CLEAR OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN. AN RFD HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS, A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO BREEZY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT
WILL IMPACT ANY FIRES THAT BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY.
SEVERE STORMS: AN UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DRIVEN BY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DAYTIME HEATING.
DESPITE ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
YIELD STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT, A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA, A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. BY THIS TIME, THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS
TO WEAKEN SOME, THOUGH OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS.
WE WILL BE WATCHING THE DRYLINE FOR POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT CAMS RIGHT NOW ARE KEEPING THIS
AREA QUIET. IF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DOES DEVELOP, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS, INCLUDING A LOW TORNADO RISK.
OUTSIDE OF FIRE WEATHER AND STORMS, EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE WARM (70S
AND 80S) WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS (APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA,
ESPECIALLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA). BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
SATURDAY: BY MID MORNING SATURDAY, THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE POST-
FRONTAL. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CAMS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY WILL BE A MINIMUM IN RAINFALL CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO WARM BACK UP (LOW 70S) AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES.
DAY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK
(INITIALLY AROUND THE RED RIVER VALLEY) AS A CUT-OFF LOW IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES PEAK
AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY INCLUDING A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. DETAILS ON
TIMING, AREAS, AND POTENTIAL HAZARDS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SO MAKE SURE
TO CHECK BACK FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER EASTWARD, ALLOWING PRECIP
CHANCES TO DECREASE MID TO LATE WEEK.
DAY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 454 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST AS A DRYLINE MOVES EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IN AFFECTING ANY ONE TAF SITE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR ANY ONE TAF SITE TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS IS AT KPNC, KSWO, AND KDUA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 42 58 38 / 40 20 10 10
HOBART OK 82 39 59 34 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 83 46 62 40 / 40 20 50 10
GAGE OK 79 32 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 74 38 58 34 / 30 20 0 0
DURANT OK 76 52 66 46 / 90 80 60 30
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...13
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