956
FXUS64 KOUN 260404
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1104 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1101 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL PRIMARILY STAY WEST OF THE
AREA.
- THE NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, AND AREAWIDE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS. IT IS ALSO KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST FROM PUSHING EAST, THUS THE RAIN REMAINS
WEST OF THE AREA. BY LATER TODAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN
UP AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
TODAY TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN SPITE OF THE EXTENSIVE HIGH AND
INCREASING MID CLOUDS SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER LOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.
FOR TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY HOWEVER AND WITH THE SOUTH WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
BY MONDAY ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OUT OF NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS WILL INITIALLY PROVIDE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, BUT GULF MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER MEAGER AS
OFF-SHORE WINDS HAVE LIMITED NORTHWARD TRANSPORT. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER DURING THE DAY, BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE COULD SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND, DEEPER MOISTURE
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL(AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT) FURTHER EAST INTO THE
BODY OF THE STATE, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE INCLUDING WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THOSE WOULD LIKELY BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH.
EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
ANY LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE STUCK IN THE NORTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES OR UNDER THE LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S., SO OUR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TREK SLOWLY EASTWARD AND BRING
BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT KWWR, WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY
EVENING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVE AT KCSM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 79 57 77 59 / 0 0 0 20
HOBART OK 79 58 76 59 / 0 0 0 40
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 58 80 60 / 0 0 0 20
GAGE OK 77 56 75 55 / 60 40 20 80
PONCA CITY OK 80 57 78 58 / 0 0 0 30
DURANT OK 82 55 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...01
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