823  
FXUS64 KOUN 301044  
AFDOUN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
544 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 542 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025  
 
- NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
- MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  
 
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  
WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM  
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY THIS  
MORNING, NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO NEAR/SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.  
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT  
TODAY AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE  
REGION. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH  
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, MAKING FOR QUITE PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH WINDS BECOMING  
SOUTHERLY LATE, BUT REMAINING LIGHT.  
 
WARE  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025  
 
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY,  
BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL YIELD INCREASING  
SURFACE MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE  
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP  
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. FORECAST WIND PROFILES SHOW MODEST  
FLOW ALOFT BUT STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURNING WHICH WILL LEAD TO  
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD  
LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE MAGNITUDE, BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER  
STORMS COULD POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS  
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE  
AREA.  
 
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE  
SHORTWAVE. HIGHS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR  
AVERAGE, OR IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AREAWIDE.  
 
WARE  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025  
 
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING DRYLINE  
WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL  
PLAINS FROM WITHIN BROADER WESTERN US TROUGHING. THE FIRST OF SUCH  
WAVES IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING  
RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER. THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE KEY AS TO WHERE THE  
HIGHEST RISK FOR STORMS WILL BE, BUT AS OF NOW TUESDAY APPEARS TO  
BE THE MORE FAVORABLE DAY FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE WAVE MAY NOT  
REACH OUR AREA BY PEAK HEATING MONDAY. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR  
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY BUT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE  
FRONT MAY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BRING  
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO THE AREA.  
 
WARE  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025  
 
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WILL DIMINISH TODAY, AND CEILINGS  
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS. RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH  
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, EXCEPT IN THE  
WEST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 85 63 82 / 0 0 40 10  
HOBART OK 59 87 62 87 / 0 10 30 10  
WICHITA FALLS TX 60 87 65 87 / 0 0 30 20  
GAGE OK 58 88 59 85 / 0 0 20 10  
PONCA CITY OK 55 86 60 84 / 0 10 30 10  
DURANT OK 60 84 65 83 / 0 0 40 20  
 
 
   
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...08  
SHORT TERM...08  
LONG TERM....08  
AVIATION...26  
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