266
FXUS64 KOUN 210305
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
- EXCESSIVE HEATING RETURNS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE MOST DANGEROUS HEATING
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
- ISOLATED RAIN/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS PARTS OF OUR
AREA BUT ARE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND UNORGANIZED.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
DESPITE THIS MORNING'S WELCOME RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER, WE ARE
ON TRACK TO SEE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY 100-105 NORTH OF I-40 AND 105-
110 SOUTH OF I-40. ADDITIONALLY, DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BUMP UP HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105-
110 RANGE THERE. THE HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW RH VALUES IN
THE UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, HOVERING AROUND THE
THRESHOLD THAT WOULD LIMIT RFTI TO 0. ERCS CONTINUE ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE.
THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40. CAMS SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN
EASTERN OKLAHOMA, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
DAY
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
HEAT REMAINS THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 112 RANGE. HEAT IMPACTS WILL BE
EXACERBATED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (APART FROM SOME POSSIBLE
POCKETS OF CLOUD COVER), LIGHT WINDS, AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS (70S
TO LOW 80S).
WE'LL BE WATCHING FIRE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AS WELL. RH DRIVEN ELEVATED RFTIS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LIGHT WINDS BEING THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR.
WE'LL ALSO BE WATCHING FOR AREAS WHERE WE MAY SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, BUT THE
RIDGE IS SHIFTED JUST FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD TO ALLOW FOR SUBTLE WAVES
IN THE UPPER FLOW (+ LINGERING BOUNDARY REMNANTS IN THE AREA) TO
TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION.
DAY
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY WITH THE HIGH/HEAT DOME ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH
ITS EASTERN EXTEND CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY SEE ANOTHER SLIGHT BREAK FROM THE HEATWAVE
ON SUNDAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR COOL FRONT BUT RETURNING
BACK ON MONDAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS WIDESPREAD. A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE MAY MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING RAIN/STORM CHANCES ON BOTH DAYS. FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS OUR WEST BUT
MAINLY DRIVEN BY VERY DRY AND HOT AIR OVER DRY VEGETATION FROM THE
PERSISTING EXTREME DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE UPCOMING
PERIOD, THOUGH WILL STILL CARRY LOW/SCATTERED MENTIONS OF RAIN AND
STORMS INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW, THE MOST "LIKELY" PERIODS ARE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER 08Z AND AGAIN BY THE EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY-ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY DURING THE
LATTER PERIOD.
PASSING OUTFLOWS/WEAK FRONTS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO SHIFT WIND
DIRECTION OCCASIONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ONE-HALF OF OKLAHOMA,
THOUGH A SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
SAFE TRAVELS!
UNGAR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 105 76 104 / 10 10 10 20
HOBART OK 77 108 77 108 / 10 0 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 108 79 109 / 10 0 20 20
GAGE OK 72 104 73 102 / 10 0 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 72 100 74 98 / 20 10 10 10
DURANT OK 78 107 77 107 / 10 20 30 20
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ006>008-011>023-026-
033>038-044.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ024-025-
027>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ083>090.
NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...09
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