025
FXUS64 KOUN 122239
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
439 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 437 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BRING A
RETURN TO GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES
COUPLED WITH DRY AIR FILLING IN FROM THE WEST (RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AS LOW AS ROUGHLY 15-25 PERCENT), WILL GIVE WAY TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE BIGGEST CAVEAT TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS BEING ONLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH. THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THUS, CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE WITH THE SETTING SUN THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL MORNING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
30S.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THE WARMEST WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH ONCE
AGAIN WARM DOWNSLOPING AIR GIVING WAY TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. SIMILAR TO TODAY, AS TEMPERATURES WARM, CONDITIONS WILL DRY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S, WHICH COUPLED WITH CONTINUED DROUGHT MAY
LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THESE FIRE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE DRIVEN BY DRY AIR
AND FUELS AS SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH.
A CUTOFF LOW PASSING EAST ACROSS TEXAS MAY BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO
NORTH TEXAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
TONIGHT, A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH OKLAHOMA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
FOLLOW DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS, TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE MILD FOR JANUARY WITH
MORNING LOWS ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HOWEVER, AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCING "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED WITH SOME BROKEN DECKS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. STRONG 30-35 KNOT 850-MB WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND GIVING WAY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS. WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. SOME LOW-
LEVEL POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS A BIT WEDNESDAY
AND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL GIVE WAY TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ROUGHLY ABOVE 30 PERCENT. THUS, MOSTLY WIND DRIVEN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RETURN AGAIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
WITH THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE, AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY WARM A
SLIGHTLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY OR DROP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING THE COLDER
AIRMASS INTO OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS, LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR JANUARY (20S).
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RETURN TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, A DOWNSLOPE-WARMED AIR MASS
WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IMPINGING WARMER AIR MASS, TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE HIGHER ON THURSDAY
THAN ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 100TH MERIDIAN WILL
BE IN THE 60S DEG F. ACROSS THE EAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S DEG F.
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CURRENTLY,
IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE MIDWEEK FRONT WHERE COLDEST AIR WILL LAG
BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT BEFORE A SECONDARY, REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR DIVES SOUTHWARD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
WHILE SATURDAY HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE TROUGH. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATES A LARGE SPREAD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE
FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S DEG F TO THE MID 50S/MID 60S DEG F.
EVEN IF THE COLDER SCENARIO OCCURS, ANY COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL
LIKELY BE BRIEF AS DOWNSLOPE-WARMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR
WEST WILL QUICKLY ERODE ANY COLD AIR AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST (AS WE'VE SEEN THROUGHOUT THIS WINTER).
MAHALE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 437 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ARE THIS EVENING, SLOWLY
VEERING TO THE WEST BY TOMORROW. NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL SEE
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 36 67 43 53 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 30 67 41 57 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 34 67 41 60 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 30 67 36 52 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 32 66 40 51 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 38 66 43 58 / 0 0 0 0
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...13
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