251
FXUS64 KOUN 051841
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
141 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
- FROST POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
NEAR TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF ELEVATED
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WITH SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER MOST OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CWA.
FARTHER NORTH, BEHIND THE FRONT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS HAS OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S
ACROSS THE NORTH, WHILE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED
THEIR MAX AND HAVE BEGUN TO FALL WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION. THIS HAS ALSO CREATED SOME STRONG, GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST,
WHILE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND MAY
MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY OUT INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLDER AIR. THIS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AGAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NORTHWEST, 60S ALONG I-40 TO THE LOW
TO MID 70S ALONG THE RED RIVER AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. DEPENDING ON HOW LOW THE
DEWPOINTS GO AND CLOUDS CLEAR THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FROST IN THESE
AREAS AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GETTING NEAR FREEZING IN FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW, A DEEP LAYER OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SO AFTER A VERY
COOL MORNING, THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
AS QUICKLY AS THE MINI-COOLDOWN ARRIVED, IT WILL BE GONE WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET'S DEPARTURE AND WE'LL MOVE BACK INTO A MINI-HEATWAVE
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE LOW-90S IN
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS ON THE FORMER DAY AND NEAR 100 ON THE LATTER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
FOLLOWING THAT, NORTHWEST FLOW GETS INTRODUCED INTO THE EQUATION AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDS AND DOMINATES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. IT'S STILL A LITTLE EARLY IN THE WARM SEASON FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW TO BE AUTOMATICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OFF OF
THE HIGH TERRAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT THERE'S AT LEAST SOME SIGNAL
ON GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEING WRAPPED INTO OUR NBM/GRIDDED FORECAST ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THAT IS DECIDEDLY NOT THE CASE ON TUESDAY, AS THE
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES AND MIGRATES EASTWARD. THE SIGNAL ON TUESDAY WOULD
SUGGEST THAT RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS WITHIN THE DISTRIBUTION OF
REASONABLE OUTCOMES.
MEISTER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TOWARDS KDUA WITH MVFR CEILINGS
GUSTY N/NNE WINDS PREVALENT BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT CEILINGS LIFT FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS EVENING. LLWS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I40. WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS EARLY MORNING AND THEN BECOME
GUSTY ONCE AGAIN AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 47 65 43 72 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 46 70 43 75 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 49 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 41 55 35 75 / 30 20 30 0
PONCA CITY OK 46 60 41 70 / 30 0 10 0
DURANT OK 53 71 50 72 / 20 10 0 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...01
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