630
FXUS64 KOUN 280645
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
145 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHEST
RAIN TOTALS WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
TODAY WILL FEATURE RATHER PLEASANT, BUT WARM, CONDITIONS AS WE SEE
MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND
HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON, OR ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BOOST WINDS A BIT OVER YESTERDAY, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA (HIGHEST NORTH). HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.
WARE
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM VANCE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITHIN
BROADER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AS
WELL ACROSS OUR WESTERN NORTH TX COUNTIES LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS TOWARDS THE AREA. BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE REACHES THE
AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS STILL FAVORED ACROSS
WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
STRONGEST. INSTABILITY APPEARS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED AT BEST,
MEANING A FAIRLY LOW LIGHTNING RISK (10-20%) IN MOST AREAS.
WARE
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SATURDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
EASTWARD, BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS A BIT SLOWER EXIT
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY, WITH RAIN SHOWERS POTENTIALLY
LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL OK. ONCE AGAIN LIGHTNING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.
STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED AN INCH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX WHERE NBM IS STILL
HIGHLIGHTING OVER 60-70% PROBABILITIES OF THIS AMOUNT, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAIN QUICKLY DROPPING TO
10-20% ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WHERE TOTALS CLOSER TO 0.5-0.75" ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE COMMON.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED TO
MOVE IN RATHER QUICKLY BEHIND THIS ONE. MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ENERGY FROM
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ATTEMPTS TO PHASE OVER THE
CENTRAL US. DEPENDING ON HOW THE TWO STREAMS INTERACT WILL
DETERMINE THE TRACK AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS WOULD
BRING A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW EXTENSIVE DRY-SLOTTING AND
MUCH LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS. NO CLEAR FAVORITE IS EVIDENT IN THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AT THE MOMENT LEADING TO RATHER LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH FOR NOW THE PERIOD OF
GREATEST POTENTIAL IMPACT APPEARS TO BE CENTERED AROUND MONDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST TO MOVE IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, BRINGING AT LEAST A BRIEF BREAK FROM OUR ABOVE AVERAGE
STRETCH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WARE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR 5KFT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BY
MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CIRRUS FROM THE SOUTH BY
LATE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 81 62 82 61 / 0 0 10 30
HOBART OK 82 61 82 60 / 0 0 10 60
WICHITA FALLS TX 84 62 83 61 / 0 0 30 50
GAGE OK 80 58 82 57 / 0 0 0 30
PONCA CITY OK 83 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 20
DURANT OK 84 63 84 63 / 0 0 10 10
OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...01
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page