364
FXUS64 KTSA 282324
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK,
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLY, SEVERE
WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WARMER TEMPERATURES, A CONTINUED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS ALL REMAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES, AND
ALONG WITH ALREADY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH LOWS
10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR
MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BEFORE THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN AREAWIDE, AIDED BY DECREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
DEW POINTS THAT WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE
TYPICALLY CONCERNING THRESHOLDS. NEVERTHELESS, WITH PLENTY OF AREA
THAT HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED GREENUP IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM
AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY, DESPITE THE HUMIDITIES. MONDAY WILL
LIKELY FEATURE THE MOST CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER COMBINATION, WITH
NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGHS, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOCALLY IN THE
UPPER 20 PERCENTS, AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS.
TURNING TO TUESDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL FAVOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT THAN WE HAVE SEEN OF
LATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF SOME. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEEN DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM
INITIALIZATION GIVEN THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR A FRONTAL ARRIVAL MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EXPANDING PRECIP/CLOUD
COVER IN RESPONSE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IN THE WEST
LEADING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH LOWER THAN
USUAL CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF VFR CEILINGS (~5KFT) BEGINNING AT
00Z FOR EASTERN OK SITES AND NEW DEVELOPMENT AFTER DAYBREAK
IMPACTING MAINLY NORTHWEST AR LOCATIONS. MORE CERTAIN WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS RETURNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT COMMON AFTER 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 50 80 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 45 79 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 50 79 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 45 80 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 44 74 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 44 74 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 48 78 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 46 76 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
F10 49 79 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 48 79 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...24
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