699
FXUS64 KTSA 142345
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
545 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC BREEZY
DAYS WHICH COULD LOCALLY RAISE GRASSLAND FIRE CONCERNS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
60S MAKING FOR A SPRING-LIKE DAY. CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR SW
OF OKC METRO MAY NUDGE NORTHEAST TOWARD PARTS OF EASTERN OK LATER
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LOWER RH WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 AND
POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HIGHER FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR A SHORT TIME.
CONTINUATION OF SOUTH WINDS WITH HIGH DEW POINTS MAINTAINED WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S IN MOST PLACES.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
VERY WARM TO NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL ENTER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BUT WINDS WILL ALSO
VEER WITH A RELAXING GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST, SHOULD SEE A CORRIDOR SOUTH
OF THE FRONT WHERE TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE 80S, ALONG WITH A
NOTABLE DROP IN DEW POINTS. FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR WILL BE REDUCED BY THE LIGHTER WINDS. MAIN IMPACT OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND A MODEST COOL-DOWN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, ALBEIT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
INITIAL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH MONDAY STILL
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL AID IN QUICKLY LIFTING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH MONDAY, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG THE RETREATING BOUNDARY MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AR.
TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP BACK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS RESULTING IN LIKELY THE GREATEST PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, AS DEW POINTS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO RETURN.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS WET OVERALL, BUT THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST PRESENTLY REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, POTENTIALLY
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK SOUTH
AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO AT LEAST A LOW TO MEDIUM POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY OR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK, CURRENTLY FAVORING SOUTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST AR
BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREA IMPACTED. FORECAST TIMING, AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ONGOING EARLY EVENING SHOULD
REMAIN COMMON THROUGH LATE EVENING AND THEM BECOME MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR FEW TO
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS LINGERING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT. ALSO TONIGHT, AS WINDS WEAKEN THIS EVENING, WINDS ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WILL CARRY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR KBVO. DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FEW/SCATTERED MVFR
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 83 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 60 83 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 62 84 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 52 79 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 59 79 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 61 78 51 68 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 61 83 54 76 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 59 78 49 71 / 0 0 0 0
F10 60 86 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 61 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20
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