175
FXUS64 KTSA 151134
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS BEHIND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES.
- SEVERAL MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
COLD START TO THE DAY WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN DURING THE DAY BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES
ACROSS EASTERN OK. A QUICK WARM UP IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S BY MID AFTERNOON. A SHORT DURATION WINDOW
OF HIGHER GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD RATES COULD DEVELOP ACROSS NE OK
WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWEST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
DOWNSTREAM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL USHER
SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT
PASSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE WITHIN THIS PATTERN, HOWEVER A
FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES COULD DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MEASURABLE
PRECIP NOT LIKELY. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND FALLING HUMIDITY VALUES. THIS
WILL RAISE GRASSLAND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AREA WIDE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN SEVERAL
LOCAL BURN BANS AND THESE SHOULD BE CLOSELY FOLLOWED AS ANY FIRE
STARTS COULD SPREAD QUICKLY.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN IS
EXPECTED TO PASS DRY THROUGH THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOLLOW THIS FRONT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND FEW COLDER VALLEYS
COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WITHIN THIS PATTERN LIKELY REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SO NO PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY. ANOTHER DRY FRONT IS FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AGAIN NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER OTHER THAN A PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD LOCALLY INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 54 35 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 51 31 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 54 36 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 54 30 51 19 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 48 30 49 21 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 46 33 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 52 34 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 48 32 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
F10 56 35 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 53 36 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page