559
FXUS64 KTSA 062335
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 633 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES THIS EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINING A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 109 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 8
PM THIS EVENING. MORNING CONVECTION HAS LEFT A WEAK MCV AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS N-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHICH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 412. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK AND W AR. HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE THEN FORECAST THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
FAR NE OK AND NW AR AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS.
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, DEEP INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT TODAY AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, HIGHER
SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
PERMIT BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION. THUS, A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LARGE HAIL
BECOMING A GREATER THREAT LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST
STORM CHANCES (AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL) ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF HWY 412 AND NORTH FOR MUCH OF THE
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT, LATEST CAMS SUGGEST SE KS INTO
FAR NE OK AND NW AR WILL BE THE FAVORED ZONE FOR STORM
REDEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL TRAINING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WHERE THIS OCCURS, REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
PROVIDE AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER, THE RECENT DRY SPELL SHOULD
HELP LIMIT IMPACTS OVERALL.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF NE OK AND NW AR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A PREFERENCE FOR SE OK AND W AR.
AGAIN, A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR E OK AND NW AR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY, BUT MAINLY
INFLUENCES AREAS TO OUR EAST. THEN, FOR THE MOST PART, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS WEAK-
MODERATE RIDGING SITS OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED SIGNIFICANTLY BY
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HIGHER
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT HEATING OVER PARTS
OF NE OK AND NW AR FRIDAY. BUT FOR LOCATIONS UNAFFECTED BY CLOUD
COVER, STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING IS STILL EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 90S. THUS, HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF E OK
AND THE AR RIVER VALLEY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS
OCCURS IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FOR NOW, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF E OK SOUTH OF TULSA, AS WELL AS IN THE AR
RIVER VALLEY, WHERE CLOUDS MAY NOT BE AS EXPANSIVE. HOWEVER,
CHANGES TO THE CONFIGURATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES BASED ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES
THEN APPEAR PROBABLE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 100 AND HUMIDITY
REMAINS ELEVATED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SITES THIS EVENING, AND MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED STORMS MAY OCCUR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF'S AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 78 96 76 101 / 30 20 20 0
FSM 78 99 75 99 / 10 30 30 10
MLC 78 99 76 99 / 0 20 20 0
BVO 72 96 71 101 / 40 40 20 0
FYV 74 94 72 96 / 20 30 30 10
BYV 75 92 72 95 / 30 40 30 10
MKO 76 97 73 98 / 20 20 30 0
MIO 73 93 72 97 / 50 50 20 0
F10 76 99 74 100 / 20 20 20 0
HHW 77 98 76 96 / 0 10 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055>062-064>068-
070-071-073-074-154-176-254-272-354.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ064>066-070-
071-073-074-176-272.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05
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