735
FXUS64 KTSA 300525
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- HOT, HUMID AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THIS WEEK. HEAT ADVISORY
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND
MAY BE NEEDED IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING.
- FLOODING CONTINUES ON MAIN-STEM RIVERS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- LOW CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK AND NW
AR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW STORM CHANCES CONTINUE WITH A WEAK
FRONT SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS REMAINS BETWEEN THE DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN/EASTERN
CONUS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THESE FEATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMER AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS TUESDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW
OUT WEST WEAKENING, AND THUS EASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE
SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE
STILL FORECAST THOUGH, WHICH WILL HELP IN THE CONTINUED AFTERNOON
MIXING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MUCH OF THE CWA BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH MID 90S TO
AROUND 102 DEG HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE EXCEPTION IS THE ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HAVE ADDED SOUTHERN
CRAWFORD AND NORTHERN SEBASTIAN COS TO GO ALONG WITH FRANKLIN CO
IN A HEAT ADVISORY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEG TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SHOULD BE
COMMON FOR THE CWA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS
IN THE 70S ARE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REPOSITION MORE TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN
MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING COULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE GREATER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT
COULD CREATE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO
WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES OR SO WARMER COMPARED TO
EARLY WEEK, WHICH WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOCATIONS TO
REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE WEEK.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN
WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY LATE WEEKEND WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
WEST/DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
NEAR PERSISTENT FLIGHT CONDITION TRENDS EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH GUSTY WINDS INCREASING AFTER
SUNRISE. LESSER COVERAGE OF MORNING STRATUS COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 79 95 78 96 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 77 96 78 96 / 0 0 0 20
MLC 78 94 78 95 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 77 94 77 95 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 75 93 75 92 / 0 0 0 20
BYV 73 92 74 92 / 0 10 0 20
MKO 77 94 77 94 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 76 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
F10 76 93 76 95 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 76 94 77 94 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07
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