155
FXUS64 KTSA 022330
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT TIMES.
- RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- THE ONGOING DROUGHT SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN.
LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
ANOTHER HOT AND PRIMARILY DRY DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING HOLD FIRM OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. AN
UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE NOTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
EAST TEXAS. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, THOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
TREND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THEREFORE, A MORE EXPANSIVE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW,
THOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO COULD SLIP INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS
EDOUARD CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS HAPPENS,
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE NOTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE
TROPICAL LOW. THEREFORE, AN UPTICK IN FIRE CONCERNS WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AS VEGETATION CONTINUES TO GROW INCREASINGLY
STRESSED DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS EDOUARD MORE OR LESS
DISSIPATES OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. MEANINGFUL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, BUT AT LEAST A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
IS POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-40 AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES
MORE EXPANSIVE THURSDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT LOOK
TO CONTINUE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40 AS HIGHER CLOUD COVER REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, WILL ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY. BEYOND THURSDAY, PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE THEME OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL LIKELY
BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MORE
HEAT HEADLINES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR STORM CHANCES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TERRAIN
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, OWING TO AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICS OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HOT AND DRY TRENDS CONTINUING
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS LOOK TO
WORSEN THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS
WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR TO A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR THE
CWA. THURSDAY MORNING, AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD
MOVE INTO NORTHERN TEXAS, SCATTERED MVFR/LOWER END VFR CEILINGS
COULD REACH KMLC BEFORE LIFTING TO SCATTERED/BROKEN MID CLOUDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BROKEN MVFR, THOUGH FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO SCATTERED. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA, SCATTERED MID CLOUDS ARE AGAIN ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KFSM WHERE EASTERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE BRIEF WINDOW FOR MVFR MENTIONED
ABOVE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 77 98 77 99 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 76 101 76 102 / 0 10 0 10
MLC 74 96 75 99 / 0 10 0 0
BVO 74 99 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 72 98 73 100 / 0 10 0 10
BYV 74 97 74 99 / 0 10 0 10
MKO 73 97 73 99 / 0 10 0 10
MIO 75 98 75 99 / 0 10 0 0
F10 72 96 73 99 / 0 10 0 0
HHW 73 93 73 96 / 10 20 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-055>062-
064>067-070-071-073>075-154-176-254-272-276-354-376.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ055>058-
060>062-066-067-070-071-074-176-254-272-276-354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220-229.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220-
229.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20
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