438
FXUS64 KTSA 280527
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1227 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR AGAIN
THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, MINOR FLOODING, AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY CONCERN, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY BOTH SHOW A WELL-DEFINE AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE RED
RIVER AND INTO SOUTHERN OK. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION FALLING NORTH OF I-40 OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A FEW TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY PULSE NEAR AND AROUND THE
LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OK. WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP
A LID ON ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MINOR FLOODING AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. CONSENSUS IN HI-RES
MODEL DATA SHOW A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN OK. AS DAYTIME HEATING GETS GOING,
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMETIME
AROUND LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY THURSDAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
EXTREMELY LOW, BUT BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND/OR A LANDSPOUT
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ROBUST
CONVECTION IN OR NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. THE MOST IMPACTFUL THREAT
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLOODING AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING. CAMS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, MOSTLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-40. HOWEVER, THEY BOTH ALSO PAINT ISOLATED SWATHS OF
HEAVIER AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR (OR GREATER) INCHES WHERE
TRAINING STORMS AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS/CORES OCCUR. GIVEN THE
LATEST DATA, THESE ISOLATED SWATH AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE, BUT
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. BY THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES MUCH LESS DEFINED AND MORE
BROAD AS IT LIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST KS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
WANE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND MUCH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL LIFT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, CAMS SUGGEST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE
FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW IN KS, MAINLY IMPACTING
FAR EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR. THIS SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN, BUT IN GENERAL, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S, TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES
MAY WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S IF SUNSHINE IS ABLE TO
BREAK OUT AT ANY POINT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER IN
THE MID-60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH OR WIDESPREAD, ESPECIALLY AS WE GET
TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THAT SAID, WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-50%) DAILY (NIGHTLY) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER, MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOSTLY ACROSS EASTERN OK,
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACHES AND ENHANCES LIFT THAT
DEVELOPS STORMS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL OK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME, BUT IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT AND STORMS ARE ABLE TO
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ORGANIZED STORMS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HAVE MORE OF A PRESENCE
AND WILL BE FIGHTING WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON. RIDGING BECOMES THE MORE DOMINATE FORCE BY MIDWEEK,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD SUNRISE.
CURRENT VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER INTO PREVAILING
MVFR TO IFR LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINS IMPACTING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN LOWERING AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY WITH A DECREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 65 83 68 86 / 60 30 40 50
FSM 67 85 68 88 / 50 50 30 40
MLC 66 86 70 89 / 30 20 10 30
BVO 63 83 66 86 / 70 30 40 40
FYV 66 81 66 85 / 60 70 30 60
BYV 64 79 64 83 / 70 80 20 60
MKO 65 83 68 86 / 50 40 30 40
MIO 65 81 66 85 / 60 50 30 50
F10 64 85 68 87 / 40 20 30 30
HHW 66 85 69 88 / 40 10 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07
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