629
FXUS64 KTSA 261121
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
621 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 618 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT THURSDAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT. STRONG
POST FRONTAL WINDS WITH SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH RECORD
TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
FREQUENT 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL MODERATE THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALL WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION ACROSS OSAGE, PAWNEE, AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES WHERE GUIDANCE IS MORE PRONE TO ALLOWING MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL FIRES REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS THIS
SAME REGION TONIGHT AND A QUICK RE-INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AFTER
SUNRISE. ANY NEW FIRE STARTS COULD QUICKLY BECOME PROBLEMATIC
ACROSS NE OK GIVEN THE LANDSCAPE OF ABUNDANT FUELS. WINDS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH ATTENTION TURNING TO
THE ADVANCING STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED INTO NE OK
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CLEARING SE OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR BY EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP NORTH
OF THE FRONT BUT MEANINGFUL WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED. STRONG
AND GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS ALONG WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT WILL
COMPLICATE ANY ONGOING FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
WINDS RELAX ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEARER NORMAL. THE COOL
DOWN IS SHORT LIVED WITH DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR RAIN CHANCES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING THROUGH THE
WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH LLWS ALSO PRESENT FOR NE OK TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH MID-MORNING,
WITH GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON. APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH BY 06Z FRIDAY AT
KBVO AND AT OTHER NE OK AND NW AR TERMINALS BY 12Z, WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE. ALSO EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELY POST-FRONTAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 94 53 61 37 / 0 20 10 0
FSM 92 59 68 41 / 0 0 20 0
MLC 90 60 65 43 / 0 0 20 0
BVO 96 46 61 31 / 0 40 0 0
FYV 91 52 59 34 / 0 20 40 0
BYV 89 54 59 36 / 0 20 50 0
MKO 90 54 60 40 / 0 10 20 0
MIO 90 49 58 35 / 0 40 20 0
F10 91 54 60 42 / 0 10 10 0
HHW 86 59 73 49 / 0 0 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ054>067.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14
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