986
FXUS64 KTSA 181619
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND, BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
QUIET, WITH JUST A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS MORNING, MAINLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
70S AND EVENTUALLY APPROACH 80 F FOR SOME AREAS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
SLOWING THE WARM UP SLIGHTLY. NBM HAD NO POPS, BUT A FEW MODELS
INDICATED AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE, SO ADDED A TOKEN 5 PERCENT POP
NORTH OF I-40. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.
AT THAT TIME A WEAKENING PACIFIC TROUGH MAY EJECT THROUGH THE
REGION. SOME GUIDANCE PULLS UP SUFFICIENT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WHILE OTHER MODELS DO NOT. SO THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME, BUT MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST THEN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE NE OK
TERMINALS, AS WELL AS FYV/XNA, WITH SPEEDS DROPPING OFF WITH SUNSET.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING, LIKELY
REMAINING BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH 19/18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 69 45 74 50 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 71 45 78 48 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 70 44 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 68 41 72 46 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 70 41 74 45 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 70 42 74 45 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 69 44 74 49 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 68 44 72 48 / 0 0 0 10
F10 70 44 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 71 46 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22
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