365
FXUS64 KTSA 151120
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
-LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIMITED SEVERE
RISK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE RISE, BUT
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE DETAILS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OUT WEST HAVE DISSIPATED
BEFORE MOVING INTO EASTERN OK. MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET,
WITH INCREASING RAIN/ISOLATED STORM CHANCES TOWARD DAYBREAK
FRIDAY ACROSS NE OK. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINT
AIR INTO THE REGION AND MUCH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE
RESULT.
THE CAMS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SPOTTY ELEVATED/HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTLE UPPER
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SW KS/OK/TX PANHANDLES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY, AND
SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE MOST PART BY EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
PRETTY LOW.
LACY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE CAMS SUGGEST STORM COVERAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OUT WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH A
LOW CHANCE OF STORMS AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, EARLIER
RUNS DID SUGGEST THAT IF ANY STORMS GET GOING AND MOVE INTO EASTERN
OK BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY EVENING, THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH A HEAT BURST
TYPE FEEL. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE THE ONION LOOK TO THEM. WHILE
CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING ARE PRETTY LOW, THIS DOES BEAR WATCHING.
THE 00Z HRRR AND 18Z RRFS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE, POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED (MCV-LIKE), EMANATING FROM SW OK/W NORTH TX REGION MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS
SATURDAY. ASSUMING PERFECT PROG, AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED/HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WOULD BE THE RESULT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE EAST BY AFTERNOON, WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST CAMS SHOW DRYLINE STORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER WESTERN KS, BUT NOT SOUTH OVER OK/TX. BY THIS TIME, MID
LEVEL TEMPS ARE PRETTY WARM OVER THIS PORTION OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
MINIMIZES THE CHANCE OF ANY STORM IMPACTS SATURDAY EVENING. STORM
COVERAGE ON SUNDAY ALONG DRYLINE COULD BE HIGHER BUT STILL PRETTY
ISOLATED WITH WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
STILL WEST. SOME MODELS HAVE DEVELOPMENT, SOME DO NOT. ANY STORMS
THAT CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OK WOULD POSE A HIGHER-END
THREAT.
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, A SHARP DRYLINE WILL LIE OVER WESTERN
OK EXTENDING TO A TRIPLE POINT OVER KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS A
SOUTHWARD-SURGING COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A MORE PRONOUNCED
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES
AND MOVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVER OUR REGION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.
THE MODELS TODAY ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
COLD FRONT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A CHANGE IN
THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES. WEAKER SE CONUS RIDGE AND A MORE
PRONOUNCED EASTWARD PUSH TO THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES. CURRENT PROGS HAVE THE FRONT SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT WOULD FOCUS
STORMS AND SOME SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE EC IS NOT AS
FAST AS THE GFS, WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER SE OK AND NW AR. EITHER WAY, THE BULK OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY, AND THUS A MORE
AGGRESSIVE FRONTAL PUSH WOULD REDUCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
HOWEVER, ALL OF THESE DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS MODELS TRY TO
GET A HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED.
LACY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FOR ANY ONE SITE REMAINS LOW (LESS THAN 20
PERCENT CHANCE) AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME,
OPTING INSTEAD FOR SITE-SPECIFIC AMENDMENTS AS REQUIRED. PRECIP
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THEN DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT,
THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION AT THIS TIME. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
LLWS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 88 71 87 72 / 20 30 10 0
FSM 90 70 89 69 / 20 30 10 0
MLC 88 72 88 71 / 20 20 10 0
BVO 89 69 88 71 / 20 30 10 0
FYV 86 70 86 68 / 30 30 20 0
BYV 86 71 86 67 / 30 30 30 0
MKO 87 71 86 70 / 30 40 20 0
MIO 86 70 86 70 / 20 30 30 0
F10 88 71 87 71 / 30 30 10 0
HHW 87 70 86 70 / 10 20 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43
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