785
FXUS64 KTSA 150524
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1224 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- HIGH HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN A DAILY CONCERN DUE TO DRYING
FUELS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.
- A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOCALIZED STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE. ANY COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MINOR AND BRIEF WITH HOT WEATHER RETURNING BY MID NEXT WEEK.
- UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME EARLY SIGNALS
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
NEAR PERSISTENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST
DEWPOINT TRENDS MAINTAIN HEAT INDEX VALUES MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE
ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY. SHOULD HIGHER DEWPOINTS BE REALIZED OVER A
LARGER AREA THEN HEAT WARNINGS MAY AGAIN BE POSTED. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME A NOTABLE FOCUS AS FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY.
PERIODIC GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL
PROVIDE HIGHER FIRE SPREAD RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NE OK SUNDAY MORNING AND
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXACT LOCATION VARIES
AMONGST GUIDANCE BUT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LARGE
T/TD SPREADS AND DEEP INVERTED V PROFILES FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DOWNBURSTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MAY SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHILE WEAKENING. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL FAVOR AREAS NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SPOTTY.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY SPIKE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH
HOT PRE FRONTAL TEMPS AND POOLED MOISTURE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY PROVIDING NO APPRECIABLE HEAT STRESS RELIEF. A SIMILAR
NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY ON MONDAY,
HOWEVER OVERALL HEAT INDEX RELIEF WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE BOUNDARY LOSES DEFINITION AS UPPER RIDGING INTENSIFIES BY
TUESDAY WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES RETURNING AREA WIDE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE MAY BUILD WESTWARD BY LATE WEEK AND ALLOW A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
LATE NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE AT THIS TIME RANGE BUT A
GLIMMER OF HOPE FROM THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF FEW/SCATTERED MID CLOUDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
AND BECOME BREEZY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS ALOFT TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 103 83 103 78 / 0 0 20 20
FSM 102 79 104 76 / 0 0 10 20
MLC 101 80 103 77 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 105 79 102 72 / 0 0 20 30
FYV 100 78 101 76 / 0 0 10 20
BYV 101 78 101 75 / 0 0 10 30
MKO 100 78 104 75 / 0 0 10 20
MIO 100 79 101 73 / 0 0 20 30
F10 101 78 104 75 / 0 0 10 20
HHW 98 78 102 76 / 0 0 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
120-129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
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