783
FXUS64 KTSA 191630
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1124 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN RATHER LOW FOR THE NEXT WEEK. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
A COUPLE HIGH BASED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED VIA RADAR/SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING, THOUGH DRY LOWER LEVELS HAVE REDUCED THESE
FEATURES TO VIRGA OR A FEW SPRINKLES. SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS (AND LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SPRINKLES) WILL PERSIST
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DESPITE THIS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL WARM NICELY INTO THE 70S
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WHICH SHOULD HELP HOLD
TEMPERATURES HIGHER IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY,
PROVIDING MORE MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER ATTEMPTS,
THOUGH DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEVERELY LIMIT ANY
RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, PROVIDING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES ARE LIKELY MID TO LATE
WEEK. TIGHTENING MSLP GRADIENTS WILL TEND TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY LATE WEEK, BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 MPH
OVERALL. THUS, WHILE LOCALLY INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LOW AFTERNOON RHS, FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY CONCERNING AT THIS TIME. BY THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS, BUT WITH VARYING INTENSITY.
THIS FEATURE MAY PUSH ONE OR MORE COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION
(WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES), BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME. OVERALL, THE CPC CONTINUES TO INDICATE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED
AS WE CLOSE OUT OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A MIX OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10KTS
OR LESS SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE DIURNAL TREND OF
LOWER SPEEDS AT NIGHT AND AN INCREASE LATE MORNING LIKELY AT ALL
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 50 76 51 78 / 0 10 10 10
FSM 50 79 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 48 78 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 48 74 48 77 / 0 10 10 10
FYV 50 76 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 48 74 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 50 76 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 49 73 50 75 / 0 0 10 0
F10 49 76 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 48 78 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22
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