177
FXUS64 KTSA 180527
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1227 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST ALONG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE EXITING SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.
FROST DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM PROVIDES INCREASING RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF E OK AND NW AR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE
WITH TIME. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS
IMPACTED BY PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY IN NE OK AND NW AR.
STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTH WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE STORMS
TONIGHT, AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH. SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND BRIEF. STORMS EXIT THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENTLY
OBSERVED WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
60S. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY THE EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PROVIDE A COOL NIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE TYPICALLY
COLDER SPOTS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN
NW AR. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT WEATHER-WISE. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WHICH COULD BRING SOME
LOW SHOWER/ THUNDER CHANCES TO THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH THIS SYSTEM. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MID-WEEK AND THEN EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION, WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR/ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AR AND SOUTHEAST OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND AT LEAST
BRIEF IFR VIS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT/STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY SUNRISE. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 64 41 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 66 40 74 45 / 20 0 0 0
MLC 64 38 74 43 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 64 36 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 62 35 71 42 / 20 0 0 0
BYV 60 38 69 44 / 20 0 0 0
MKO 63 38 72 44 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 61 38 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
F10 63 38 72 44 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 64 41 72 44 / 30 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14
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