246
FXUS64 KTSA 291732
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1122 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. DAILY HEAT HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY.
- THE ONLY POSSIBILITY OF RAIN WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- THE ONGOING DROUGHT SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN.
LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, HEAT INDICES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES. ACCORDINGLY, NO HEAT PRODUCTS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT TOTALLY DIE OFF, WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP LOWS HIGHER. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SIT NEARLY
OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HOT AND STAGNANT, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS REMAINING 98-103 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. MOSTLY TRIMMED
TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NBM VALUES, WHICH LOOK TOO HOT
OVERALL. WITH CONTINUOUS MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW, DEW POINTS WILL
GRADUALLY RISE. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF
105-110 FOR GOOD CHUNKS OF EASTERN OK AND WEST- CENTRAL AR. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR NORTHEAST OK, WITH ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES LIKELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SLIGHTLY SHIFT, AND BECOME CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE AREA, WITH
MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY CLIMBING AS THIS OCCURS. OVERALL, THE SAME
GENERAL PATTERN OF HEAT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER, THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE CHANCE OF
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN DIURNAL SHOWERS OR STORMS (10-15 PERCENT
CHANCE). EVEN LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE (BEYOND DAY 7) HAS UNUSUALLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING NEAR OR OVERHEAD
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND LIKELY BEYOND.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON OF THE NEXT WEEK
DUE TO HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE BREEZIEST DAYS OVERALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS BETWEEN EASTERLY AND
SOUTHERLY SHOULD REMAIN COMMON OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 100 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 101 70 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 102 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 101 75 101 74 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 97 71 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 95 71 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 99 72 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 98 74 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
F10 101 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 99 72 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ055>057-
059>062-064-067-154-254-354.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page