231
FXUS64 KTSA 220028
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
728 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 726 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- MODERATE RAIN/LOW STORM (NON-SEVERE) CHANCES LINGER TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED STARTING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. THE OVERALL IMPACT WITH THIS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AT WORST, WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN VERY SPOTTY AND MOSTLY CONFINED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PLETHORA OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER SPREADING
NORTHWARD. THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY COOL, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40, WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING CLOSER TO AVERAGE NEAR/NORTH OF THE PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD
DECK.
HIGHER RESOLUTION CAMS SUGGEST A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION
BY EARLY-MID EVENING, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PICK RIGHT
BACK UP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK AS A SECONDARY
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE RED RIVER AREA. IMPACTS STAY
VERY LOW. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE MILD THAN LAST
NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE (WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY) RAIN SHOWERS
MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR AT THE
START OF THE LONG-TERM AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE BEGINS MAKING
ITS EXIT TO THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES AND IMPACTS WILL STAY LOW FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR THROUGH MIDDAY OR SO
BEFORE CHANCES SHUT OFF. MAINLY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BEGINNING WITH A ROBUST MID/UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OFF THE ROCKIES AND MOVING OVER THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHARPENING
DRYLINE POSITIONING ITSELF ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND WESTERN OK BY
THE AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT.
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF OK. THUS, MOST
MODELS SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS FIRING OFF THE DRYLINE IN THE
AFTERNOON. IF ONE OR FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND BREAK THE
CAP, SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS (CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS) ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM IN A FAIRLY VOLATILE STORM ENVIRONMENT, LIKELY SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES INTO EASTERN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY. WILL KEEP IN
SOME LOW MENTIONABLE POPS (15-20%) DURING THE AFTERNOON TO COVER
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
STORMS. BETTER STORM/SEVERE CHANCES, AT LEAST FOR NORTHEAST OK AND
FAR NORTHWEST AR, WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LATEST THINKING IS A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FROM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EARLY-MID THURSDAY EVENING IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS AND WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
CAPPING INVERSION LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE STORMS PUSH INTO
THE AREA, SUGGESTING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER, ANY WEAKNESS IN THE INVERSION MAY CAUSE
A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH THE LINE OF STORMS, WITH HIGHEST FLOODING
THREAT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412 IN NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR.
GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH, BUT LOCAL
AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OK AND STALL NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING. A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FRIDAY. EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION FROM THE MORNING
STORMS AND STORM INITIATION IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAKE FOR A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO ON FRIDAY. GENERAL IDEA IS ANY
LINGERING STORMS NEAR OR AHEAD OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND/OR NEW
STORM INITIATION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED IN THE
AFTERNOON, THOUGH EXACT LOCATION(S) OF GREATEST THREAT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON LOCATION OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST OK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE STALLING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BETTER DETAILS TO
COME. AT THIS TIME, SUNDAY HAS THE MOST CONSISTENT SETUP
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY IF THE 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT, AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY, BUT TIMING AND EXACT COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN. BETTER
DETAILS TO COME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
MVFR CIGS PERSIST ACROSS E OK THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING RECENTLY
OBSERVED ACROSS NW AR SITES. EXPECT A DOWNWARD TEND IN CEILINGS
FOR ALL SITES TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE OK THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KMLC AND KFSM LATE OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR POSSIBLE ACROSS NW AR
SITES. SOUTH WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 57 74 64 80 / 0 0 10 20
FSM 53 76 61 83 / 10 20 10 20
MLC 54 75 64 80 / 20 20 10 20
BVO 54 74 60 80 / 0 0 10 20
FYV 50 74 59 79 / 0 10 10 20
BYV 51 74 59 79 / 0 10 0 20
MKO 55 72 62 78 / 10 10 10 20
MIO 55 72 61 78 / 0 0 0 20
F10 55 72 64 79 / 10 10 10 20
HHW 54 72 62 78 / 40 30 10 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06
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