735
FXUS64 KTSA 171756
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1256 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1153 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- LOW-MEDIUM CHANCE OF STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- HOT AND HUMID THIS AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE, AND POTENTIALLY SOUTH
OF I-40 THURSDAY WITH HI VALUES NEAR 105 IN SOME SPOTS.
- A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH A LOW END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
WINDY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-NID 70S DEW POINTS COVERING THE LOCAL AREA.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR DEW POINT TRENDS FOR A POTENTIAL HEAT
ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF NORTHEAST OK WHERE TEMPS ALREADY IN THE
UPPER 80S AND HI INCHING TOWARD 100 PRESENTLY NW OF TULSA. IN
THIS SAME GENERAL CORRIDOR, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS
IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. THE
WIND WILL TAKE A BIT OF THE EDGE OFF THE ANTICIPATED HEAT AS NOTED
BY PREVIOUS SHIFT, BUT SHOULD TEMPS AND/OR DEW POINTS OUTPACE
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS, A SHORT-FUSED HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
BY EVENING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST OK AND
POSSIBLY FAR NORTHWEST AR TONIGHT. CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS IT
APPROACHES, WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION. AS SUCH THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF LARGE
HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND FOR STORMS THAT CAN SUSTAIN THIS EVENING.
POTENTIALLY, AT LEAST, STORMS COULD PERSIST INTO TONIGHT THOUGH
MOST LIKELY IN A WEAKENED STATE.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NOTABLY COOLER AIR
IN IT'S WAKE. CAM SOLUTIONS VARY ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THURSDAY AS IT MOVES SOUTH BUT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
PLAUSIBLE, WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON. AREAS THAT REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN, WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY
SEEING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE, WHILE AREAS TO THE
NORTH WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER. PRESENT FORECAST WILL SIDE WITH
HIGH TEMPS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE NBM MEAN, MORE TOWARD THE 50TH
PERCENTILE, BUT MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS COULD HOLD TEMPS WELL
BELOW 80 MUCH OF THE DAY IN NORTHEAST OK.
RECENT TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD FAVOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT AND ALONG THE 850 MB BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE PWAT
VALUES ABOVE 90TH PERCENTILE AND POSSIBLE RESURGENCE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, SOME SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS SHEAR REMAINS
RELATIVELY STRONG. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE
DURING THIS PERIOD, LIKELY MORE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
412. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO PART OF FRIDAY
WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST, WITH SOME RENEWAL OF
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG RIDGING NOTED IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO VARYING DEGREES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION INDICATED
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HELD LARGELY IN CHECK, OUTSIDE OF SUNDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
FEW TO BROKEN MID LEVEL DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN COMMON
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
25-35KT. THIS EVENING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CWA, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO REACH INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN A WEAKENING STATE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30/VCSH FOR
TIMING OF GREATER POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
ALSO LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, MVFR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TO MEET THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD MUCH OF CWA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING
BACK TO LOW END VFR CEILINGS. WINDS TONIGHT SUBSIDE AND BECOME
MORE VARIABLE WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING IN, AND THEN TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A NORTH TO EAST COMPONENT THURSDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 93 75 82 68 / 0 20 60 60
FSM 93 76 92 72 / 0 0 20 70
MLC 92 77 92 73 / 0 0 10 80
BVO 93 71 78 64 / 0 50 60 50
FYV 89 73 84 66 / 0 20 50 60
BYV 88 71 81 65 / 0 50 60 60
MKO 91 75 86 69 / 0 20 30 60
MIO 90 70 79 64 / 0 70 60 40
F10 91 75 87 68 / 0 10 20 80
HHW 90 75 91 75 / 0 0 0 70
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20
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