281
FXUS64 KTSA 211136
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 636 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 105-115 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME HEAT RELIEF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BUT THE HEAT WILL RETURN FRIDAY.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE WIDESPREAD EXTREME HEAT SEEN EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING ON
THE HIGH SIDE ONCE AGAIN. A FEW SPOTS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 80
DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT TEMP AND DEW POINT READINGS AND THE 24 HOUR
TRENDS. THE WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
AROUND OF EXTREME HEAT ON TUESDAY. EXPECT AIR TEMPERATURES TO BE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE SEEN TODAY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND WARMER 850 TEMPS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT SET TO
MOVE THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. NBM TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO WARM, AND AS SUCH, THIS FORECAST
REFLECTS HIGHS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT TERM BLENDED GUIDANCE.
HIGHS SHOULD STILL LARGELY BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS AREAWIDE, AND
WITH CONTINUED HIGH DEW POINTS, WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM 110 TO 115. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED TODAY, CHEROKEE AND
NORTHERN SEQUOYAH COUNTIES HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING TOMORROW. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO ADDING BENTON
AND CARROLL AS WELL AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY NEED TO BE
ADDED AT SOME POINT TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, SOME CAMS DO
SHOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM THE NBM
INITIALIZATION ACROSS THESE AREAS TO JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
THE WEAK FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND A MODEST COOLDOWN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST SPOTS BUT
SHOULD FEEL NICER GIVEN THE LOWER HUMIDITY AND CERTAINLY COMPARED
TO EXPECTATIONS ON TUESDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT WILL LINGER
INTO THURSDAY, BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A RETURN TO HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE NBM INITIALIZATION USING THE
BLENDED TRADITIONAL MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
OVERFORECASTING BY THE NBM IN SIMILAR SCENARIOS. AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR
REGARDING HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
UPPER HIGH. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD EXPAND SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY
BOTH MAKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN, WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO
EAST LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD REMAIN
STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO AN ADDITIONAL STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND EXTREME HEAT. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH THAT THE NBM HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT A DAY OR TWO
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS AND CERTAINLY ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES
SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 102 76 93 73 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 104 79 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 103 80 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 101 73 91 70 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 99 74 91 69 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 99 71 89 68 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 103 77 94 73 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 98 72 90 70 / 10 0 0 0
F10 102 76 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 102 79 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ069.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ049-053-055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-
276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05
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