504
FXUS64 KTSA 241101
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- PERIODS OF LOW RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER STRETCH OF DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
DECAY IS IT MOVES INTO A ZONE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND LOW
INSTABILITY OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. STILL, THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND TOWARD DAYBREAK.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL IF ANY THROUGH THE PRE DAWN
HOURS AND ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY FRIDAY, A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO THE OZARKS BY MID
AFTERNOON. INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO
THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW MODEST
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY AND
REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A STRONGER STORM OR TWO,
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT LIKELY. WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN
CHECK MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CREEP BACK OVER 100 HOWEVER, AS
THE HUMIDITY INCREASES. ANY PLACES THAT SEE A LITTLE MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE COULD APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THOSE LOCATIONS IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO HAVE
OPTED TO LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THE OBS TO SEE IF ONE IS
WARRANTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SPOTTY SHOWERS OR
STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE AREA, WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BE THE STORY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO HEAT HEADLINES FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SOME EXTREME HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA ON THOSE DAYS AS HEAT INDICES AROUND 115 DEGREES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING HEAT INDEX VALUES DOWN SOMEWHAT, BUT STILL OVER ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST SOME BY LATE WEEK
WITH A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL AND ALLOWING LOW RAIN CHANCES TO ENTER BACK INTO THE
FORECAST.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND POTENTIAL FOR ON-STATION SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS REMAIN THE AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE EXPANDED NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH
POTENTIAL NOW INTO RVS/XNA/ROG, AS WELL AS MLC/FSM/FYV. A LOW
CHANCE OF EXPANSION AS FAR NORTH AS TUL AND BVO EXISTS BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE TEMPOS AT THOSE SITES. THE TIMING OF THE VCSH FOR THE
NE OK AND NW AR TERMINALS REMAINS LARGELY SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER
TAFS. THE PROB30 FOR CEILING REDUCTIONS ON-STATION DUE TO LIGHT
RAIN REMAINS AT BVO, WITH CONFIDENCE NOW HIGH ENOUGH AT
FYV/XNA/ROG TO INTRODUCE A PROB30 AT THOSE SITES AS WELL. SOME
CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO A TSRA MENTION IN NW AR BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 80 99 81 / 20 20 10 0
FSM 93 79 98 79 / 10 10 10 0
MLC 92 80 97 79 / 0 0 10 0
BVO 89 77 98 79 / 30 20 20 0
FYV 88 76 94 77 / 10 20 20 0
BYV 88 75 94 76 / 20 20 20 10
MKO 90 78 96 79 / 10 10 10 0
MIO 88 76 96 78 / 20 20 20 0
F10 91 78 97 78 / 0 10 10 0
HHW 92 78 94 77 / 0 0 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page