790
FXUS64 KTSA 180211
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
811 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 744 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
- LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARY
HAZARD BECOMING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING
POTENTIAL THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 744 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN NE
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KS. A
SURFACE LOW WAS FOUND OVER NORTHEAST KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO CENTRAL OK THEN
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WEST OF DFW INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE
WARM FRONT EARLIER ACROSS NORTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST AR HAD
MOVED A BIT FURTHER EAST INTO THE TERRAIN OF AR AND MO. AREA VAD
PROFILER SHOWED A 35-45KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT WITHIN AN AXIS OF INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS LIFT FROM THE KS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK APPROACHES
NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR. BLENDED POPS
WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO 50%, LARGELY AS A RESULT
OF THE 18Z AND 21Z CAMS INPUT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH ANY UPDRAFTS THAT ARE ABLE TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO ENTER NORTHEAST OK.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
PRECIP TONIGHT SHOULD TAPER OFF/EXIT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE EXITING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A TRAILING WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AND LOOKS TO STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, NORTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORT A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION WHICH COULD DEVELOP AREAS OF LIMITED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, WHILE LOWER 80S DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MUCH ADVERTISED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WHICH PUSHES A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CWA. THE CWA LOOKS TO GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING THE FRONT FROM TUESDAY BACK NORTH OF THE
CWA. IN RESPONSE, THIS BEGINS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE OUT
INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A LEAD IMPULSE/VORT MAX LIFTING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
MOVES THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THIS IMPULSE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THEN SPREADS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASES AGAIN OVER THE
REGION WITH THE VORT MAX, WHICH CREATES AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MORE NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THUS, A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES SPREAD OVER THE
REGION. THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG LATEST DATA FOR THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS, THOUGH THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN FLOODING
CONCERNS IS MAINLY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY, THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
AS A DRY SLOT TRIES TO WRAP AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW INTO THE
CWA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EXITING WITH FRONT FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES MORE
CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE A WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE PLAINS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
LOW VFR CLOUDS HAVE MIXED EAST OF THE NORTHWEST AR TERMINALS FOR
THE TIME BEING BUT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THEY WILL
RETURN LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BETWEEN 04Z-06Z BUT CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD
DAYBREAK AS HIGHER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH WITH TIME.
WINDS WILL VEER OVERNIGHT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND BECOMES GUSTY AGAIN FOR AR
TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LLWS WIND SHEAR WILL BE A
FACTOR OVERNIGHT FOR THE AR TERMINALS BEFORE WEAKENING BY 12Z. A
WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OK SITES AFTER 15Z WITH
SPEEDS NEAR 10 KT CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE
SLOWER PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST WITH A LATER WIND SHIFT FOR
REMAINING SITES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 77 50 74 / 10 0 0 20
FSM 63 83 54 79 / 30 0 0 20
MLC 67 85 54 80 / 10 0 0 30
BVO 52 75 44 71 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 63 78 48 75 / 50 0 0 10
BYV 61 78 49 73 / 50 0 0 10
MKO 64 80 51 78 / 20 0 0 20
MIO 60 75 47 72 / 30 0 0 10
F10 62 80 51 78 / 10 0 0 20
HHW 68 85 62 81 / 20 0 0 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24
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