792
FXUS64 KTSA 250440
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE, AND PATCHY FOG LINGERS INTO TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40.
- STRONG AND DRY COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- WETTER WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY ACCOMPANIED BY COLDER AIR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MO CONTINUES TO MOVE
QUICKLY EAST, WITH A CONTINUED DECREASE IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO
NW AR AND NE OK. STILL SEEING A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS BUT THESE
SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR
SATURATED OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS ALONG
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CLOUD DECK HAVE SEEN DENSE FOG AT TIMES
AND SOME OF THIS COULD BUILD INTO PARTS OF EASTERN OK, PRIMARILY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ORIENTED N-S LIES OVER EASTERN OK AND LATER TONIGHT THIS WILL SLIDE
MORE TO THE EAST WITH A SHIFT TO A MORE WEST SFC WIND, ALBEIT LIGHT.
HIGH-RES DATA SUGGESTS THIS MAY RESULT IN SUBTLE DRYING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND ULTIMATELY REDUCE FOG POTENTIAL. FOR NOW NO
ADVISORY IS PLANNED, HOWEVER A SHORT DURATION ONE MAY BECOME
NECESSARY SHOULD LATER TRENDS WARRANT.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SWING
THROUGH THE PLAINS LATER TODAY AND PUSH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE REGION LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SCOUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AND RESULT IN A
RETURN TO CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. SO A WARMER AFTERNOON SHAPING UP
DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS REACHING LOW-MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES ULTIMATELY DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING IN PARTS OF NE
OK/NW AR. AS THE HIGH SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT
LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEATHER REMAINS QUIET
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
THE OVERALL IDEA OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK HASN'T CHANGED, BUT A LOT OF DETAILS TO SORT OUT. A DEEP TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN STATES BY THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. WITH THIS
AND A RETURN TO STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DO BEGIN TO INCREASE BY SATURDAY, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS WELL. COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE POTENTIAL SURGE OF
CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR, AND WHEN IT MAY ARRIVE. A TREND TOWARD
COLDER TEMPS WITH CONTINUING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CARRIED
INTO MONDAY, BUT FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR ERN OK SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ALSO EXPECTED NWRN AR SITES TUESDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 51 64 34 51 / 30 0 0 0
FSM 52 66 37 53 / 40 0 0 0
MLC 49 66 37 54 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 46 63 30 51 / 40 0 0 0
FYV 50 61 32 49 / 40 0 0 0
BYV 52 61 32 47 / 50 0 0 0
MKO 52 64 34 51 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 51 61 32 48 / 40 0 0 0
F10 49 64 34 51 / 20 0 0 0
HHW 48 64 38 55 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...69
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