680
FXUS64 KTSA 181738
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1238 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT NEAR OK/KS BORDER THIS MORNING,
AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF I-40. WIND AND
HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH AT LEAST LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
- ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT AND HUMIDITY FORECAST ACROSS FAR SE OK
THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 IN SOME SPOTS.
- THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AT LEAST DURING
PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS TO OFFER THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AND INTO
THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF AR LATE THIS MORNING, EXTENDING
ROUGHLY ALONG AN OKC-FYV LINE AT PRESENT. ONGOING SCATTERED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR THE 925 MB FRONT IN A
CORRIDOR OF AROUND 2000 MUCAPE. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AN OVERALL DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE, THOUGH SOME RENEWAL IS ALSO
INDICATED NEAR THE 850MB FRONT IN SOUTHERN KS. GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO POSE A LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL
AND WIND, AND WITH NEAR 2 INCH PWATS POOLED NEAR THE FRONT A
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXISTS AS WELL.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO A HOT AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40, SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE. CAMS DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH, BUT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAY APPROACH 105 HI
AND AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OK.
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THERE REMAINS A SIGNAL OF
AT LEAST SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT.
THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO OFFER MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE THREAT,
HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR A FRONT/DRY LINE
INTERSECTION OVER NW TX, WHICH SHOULD GROW INTO AN EAST-MOVING
COMPLEX OVERNIGHT THAT COULD AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL ONGOING STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING, FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY DRY. STORMS CHANCES SHOULD RETURN QUICKLY
HOWEVER AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY THOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A POTENTIAL
COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
IMPACT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG WAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW FORCES A COLD
FRONT SOUTH. HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS MORE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD,
WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-40 LOOKING MORE FAVORED AT THIS TIME. WE MAY
ALSO BE IMPACTED BY A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD
OFFER AN UPTICK IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH NO
INDICATIONS YET OF STRONG RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE PRETTY MUCH DAILY AS A RESULT, BUT PINNING DOWN A
TIME AND LOCATION OF HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE CHALLENGING. THIS
WILL GENERALLY KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL OUTSIDE OF SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE THE 850-MB BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER. IN RESPONSE, SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN
FORECAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH/PROB30 GROUPS
FOR TIMING ACROSS THESE TAF SITES. INDICATIONS REMAIN FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO WEAKEN BEFORE ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES
RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN, WILL CONTINUE
WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR GENERAL TIMING, WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING FRIDAY. WITHIN THE
CONVECTION, GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS FOR THE CWA VARY FROM
EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 67 84 70 86 / 60 20 30 30
FSM 71 85 71 87 / 60 50 40 50
MLC 71 85 72 88 / 60 50 50 40
BVO 63 84 67 85 / 40 10 30 30
FYV 65 84 68 85 / 60 20 30 50
BYV 64 83 66 84 / 40 10 20 50
MKO 68 83 70 85 / 60 40 30 40
MIO 63 85 67 85 / 40 0 30 40
F10 67 83 70 86 / 60 40 40 40
HHW 73 84 72 86 / 60 60 60 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20
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