090
FXUS64 KTSA 250513
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1213 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- NEAR RECORD HEAT TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
PERSISTENT MID AND HIGH CLOUD ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER WARM NIGHT BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE 50S. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AND BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, SENDING TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE
FIRE CONCERNS BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. LOWS WILL BE WARM AGAIN, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THE WORST FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE TEMPERATURES REACH
NEAR RECORD LEVELS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP MIN
RH VALUES FROM BECOMING CRITICALLY LOW, BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE
25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THAT COULD BE EXPANDED EASTWARD AS
NEW DATA AND TRENDS ARE EVALUATED IN LATER SHIFTS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT PASSES. BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS
INFLUENCE FROM THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE. UNFORTUNATELY, AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK TO BE PRETTY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH. SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WHERE MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. WIND
GUSTS COULD BE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL FOR A TIME FRIDAY MORNING,
BEFORE DYING OFF AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD. ANOTHER
SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES IS IN STORE
FOR SATURDAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN BY SUNDAY AND A WARMING TREND WILL FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST PLACES WILL STILL REMAIN
LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MORE WESTERN US TROUGHING
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. LIGHT SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
MID-LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
BECOMING LIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 65 93 51 63 / 0 0 20 10
FSM 61 92 60 74 / 0 0 10 30
MLC 64 89 59 71 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 61 93 47 62 / 0 0 30 10
FYV 62 89 52 65 / 0 0 20 40
BYV 66 88 51 62 / 0 0 30 50
MKO 64 89 56 67 / 0 0 10 10
MIO 65 88 49 60 / 0 0 40 20
F10 65 89 56 66 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 62 85 60 76 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ054-055-059-060-064>066.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14
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