128
FXUS64 KTSA 072333
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW.
- SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
FROM TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED
KILLING FREEZE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING; FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT
FROM 9 PM SUNDAY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
- NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
A WEAK AND DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST
SURFACE OBS MAY NOT SHOW A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES,
BUT DO SHOW A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN DEWPOINTS BEHIND IT, WHICH
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND LOWER-50S IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OK. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER IN DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD FEEL NOTICEABLY COOLER
WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE, DROPPING GENERALLY INTO THE MID-
UPPER 40S (ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT) BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED
BEGINNING TOMORROW AND ESPECIALLY INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AS STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEST
COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGIONS. THIS WILL CAUSE A ROBUST TROUGH
TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THAT ONLY
DEEPENS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MENTIONED
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THIS PATTERN WILL HELP PUSH A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING AROUND MID SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, EXITING SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP
INTO THE LOW-MID 70S SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONT, WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH BEFORE DECREASING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THE INITIAL COLD
FRONT. WIND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
EVENING. A FEW ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW SOME VERY
LIMITED, SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
EMBEDDED IN THE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH, THAT WILL MOVE OVER FAR
NORTHEAST OK AND FAR NORTHWEST AR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT
LIGHT RAIN, A FEW SNOW FLAKES, AND/OR DRIZZLE EARLY-MID SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OK AND FAR NORTHWEST AR. INCLUDED
SOME SILENT (BELOW MENTIONABLE, 10%) POPS FOR THIS AREA IN THAT
TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOLLOWING THE STRONG COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. THE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
RISE ABOVE 50 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40. THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES FEEL LIKE THE MID-UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF
THE DAYTIME AS WELL. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO
CLEAR BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE AUTUMN SEASON (THUS FAR) WILL OCCUR.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A HARD FREEZE, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S,
WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. COLDER-PRONE AREAS
IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A KILLING FREEZE, WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER-20S. WITH THAT SAID, NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR
THESE COLDER AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HAVE A PLAN FOR PETS,
PLANTS, PIPES, AND THOSE VULNERABLE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA-WIDE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING AT 9 PM SUNDAY
THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAYTIME
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND
LOWER-50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD MONDAY EVENING AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN, HELPING WARM TEMPERATURES UP
SOME. HOWEVER, WARMING WILL BE GRADUAL AND ADDITIONAL FREEZE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN OK AND WESTERN
AR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE A LIGHTER FREEZE MAY
OCCUR. A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THOUGH THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
BY TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY
LOW TO UNLIKELY THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO NEAR 25 KNOTS AT TIMES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 46 73 39 47 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 48 76 44 51 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 46 78 42 51 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 41 70 34 44 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 44 73 36 44 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 46 71 37 42 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 46 75 41 47 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 44 70 36 42 / 0 0 10 10
F10 45 75 40 48 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 48 77 46 55 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ049-053>076.
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05
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