282
FXUS64 KTSA 170420
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1120 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1116 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 105-110 F FOR MANY AREAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
TEXAS AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, RAIN CHANCES WILL MOSTLY
REMAIN BELOW 15% OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
LOWER 70S.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES OF 95-100. UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE, BUT A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE AS A SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM TEXAS. IMPACTS WOULD BE
ISOLATED, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING BEING
THE MAIN HAZARDS. ANY STORMS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE UP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S. A COUPLE OF VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT, BUT THE PROBABILITIES ARE MOSTLY 15% OR
LESS.
THE STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE HEAT. AN
INTENSE AND SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LARGELY
CONSISTENT, WITH A STRONGLY WARMING THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S MONDAY TO
TUESDAY. WITH CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW, HEAT INDICES WILL
REACH 100-110 F EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT HEADLINES OF SOME KIND
EXPECTED. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHIFT THE RIDGE JUST ENOUGH AWAY
FROM THE AREA (MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK) TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
MORE REASONABLE AND INTRODUCE A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN. HOWEVER, THE
VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A PROLONGED HEAT EVENT
THAT WILL STRETCH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS
REMAINING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HOLDING
OVER WESTERN TEXAS. ALSO EARLY THIS EVENING, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA ARE
FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND TAPER OFF
MID EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE CONVECTION. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN FORECAST OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP TAFS DRY
AFTER THIS EVENING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF/LIMITED COVERAGE
IMPACTING ANY ONE TERMINAL. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN
SOUTHERLY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 91 76 94 / 40 20 20 10
FSM 73 93 75 95 / 40 10 0 10
MLC 73 90 75 93 / 20 20 10 10
BVO 71 89 73 93 / 20 30 10 10
FYV 70 89 72 90 / 20 20 20 10
BYV 70 90 72 91 / 20 20 20 10
MKO 72 89 74 91 / 30 20 20 10
MIO 71 90 73 91 / 20 20 20 10
F10 71 89 73 91 / 20 20 10 10
HHW 72 89 74 91 / 20 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20
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