667
FXUS64 KTSA 232252
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
552 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 551 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- LOCALLY ENHANCED GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD RATES POSSIBLE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 IN NE OK THIS AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
IT IS ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS
WILL TEND TO BE MORE COMMON. LOCALLY ENHANCED GRASSLAND FIRE
SPREAD RATES ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
LOW MIN RH VALUES, AND BREEZIER AFTERNOON WINDS TODAY (10-20 MPH,
GUSTING TO 25 MPH NW OF I-44). QUIET CONDITIONS PERSIST OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S (SLIGHTLY COLDER FOR
TYPICAL SHELTERED VALLEYS).
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
RIDGING KEEPS THE WEATHER WARM AND DRY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
THOUGH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING, CURRENTLY OVER S CALIFORNIA, WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION INTO A CUTOFF LOW AND MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE C/N PLAINS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PLAUSIBLE IN OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES
MONDAY-EARLY TUESDAY DESPITE THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. MOST
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NOW
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH LESS OF A COOL DOWN EXPECTED
TUESDAY.
BY MID TO LATE WEEK, A SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE N PLAINS
AND SEND A STRONGER COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CWA. MODEL SPREAD IS
HIGHER BY THIS POINT, BUT IF THIS FRONT MANAGES TO MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA THEN HIGHER RAIN POTENTIAL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD
LIKELY RESULT. UNTIL THEN, WARM AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE LOCALIZED AND HIGHLY
VARIABLE WITH ANY IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE VERY BRIEF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 54 81 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 55 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 53 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 48 80 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 46 81 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 53 80 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 54 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 54 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
F10 54 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 54 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
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