691
FXUS64 KTSA 301021
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
421 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 421 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
- WARMING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE, 20 PERCENT, COMING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD START TO THE DAY, SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OVER SOUTHEAST TX TODAY, RESULTING IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS RETURNING TO THE AREA BY LATE MID-LATE MORNING. AS SUCH,
THIS WILL COMMENCE A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. FOR TODAY, VERY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL
TRANSPIRE, WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE
UNDERNEATH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. SOME LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MAY ARISE THIS AFTERNOON, SPECIFICALLY NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
75 IN NORTHEAST OK, WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 20
PERCENT OR LOWER WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT SOUTHWEST GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE, LOW-IMPACT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
IN SHORT, MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVERSPREADING
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST NEW YEARS EVE. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GET DISRUPTED
SOMEWHAT ON NEW YEARS DAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
EVENTUALLY RIDE THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES, BRIEFLY DE-AMPLIFYING
THE PATTERN AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILARLY TO WHAT WAS STATED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER DATA AND THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE BEST /LOW/ CHANCE OF QPF, GENERALLY ACROSS NORTH AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
LOW MENTIONABLE POPS /20 PERCENT OR LESS/ FOR MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. SURFACE LOW WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE RED RIVER ON FRIDAY AND
HELP DROP A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN TURN, THIS WILL BRING BACK ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
BACK TO THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 60S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE LATTER HALF. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH
SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 49 31 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 47 29 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 50 31 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 49 27 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 46 29 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 44 30 54 36 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 47 30 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 44 27 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
F10 50 31 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 47 30 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22
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