965
FXUS64 KTSA 140837
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 AM CDT WED APR 14 2021
DISCUSSION
AT THE TIME OF WRITING, A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED
ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY 850MB FRONT. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT (WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR BENTONVILLE WSW TO NEAR STILLWATER)
ARE EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL STORM ACTIVITY WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION JUST SOUTH OF I-40 AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 100
TO NEAR 500J/KG (NEAR THE RED RIVER) ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. BULK SHEAR, HOWEVER, DOES INCREASE THE CLOSER YOU GET TO
THE RED RIVER. WITH THAT SAID, SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS (PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 TO 1.4 WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THE RISK OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL) WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR THIS
MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL (OCCASIONALLY HEAVY WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS) WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY WRAP UP BY MID
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS
AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER
SMALL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. INSTABILITY WILL
BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND MAINLY CONFINED TO NEAR THE RED RIVER THUS
IT APPEARS FAR SE OK WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. POOR SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP OUR SEVERE CHANCES AT
BAY.
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS RETURNS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS A RATHER STRONG UPPER
WAVE/LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY BUT SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM REINFORCING A SHOT OF MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OK AS WE
MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL ALSO BE WHEN WE SEE OUR
COOLEST MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. A FROST WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WITH MONDAY
MORNING SEEING THE BEST CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WARM A LITTLE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.
SNIDER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 63 45 62 47 / 30 30 20 70
FSM 64 49 68 49 / 80 40 0 60
MLC 64 50 65 50 / 50 60 20 70
BVO 64 43 61 45 / 20 20 20 70
FYV 60 43 63 45 / 80 30 0 50
BYV 60 42 62 44 / 80 20 0 50
MKO 64 48 64 48 / 60 40 20 70
MIO 63 41 61 45 / 20 20 0 60
F10 63 48 63 48 / 40 60 20 70
HHW 65 51 67 50 / 50 60 20 70
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
LONG TERM....21
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