932
FXUS64 KTSA 161845
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING;
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES EAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING; ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
- LIMITED TO LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THURSDAY AND
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FORM GOES-19 SHOWS A DISTINCT UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TX. THIS TROUGH HAS PRODUCED A
PLETHORA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE BLANKETING OVER THE
AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND INTO THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT, SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK LATE TONIGHT
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS, BUT NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. AT THE
SURFACE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK AND DECAYING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE KS/OK BORDER BEFORE WASHING OUT. AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO
BREAK APART AND CLEAR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OK, PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL BE, BUT A FEW
AREAS MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-44 WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHTEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH, WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG
THE KS/OK BORDER TO MID-40S NEAR THE RED RIVER.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
A ROBUST AND RAPID MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW WILL
SHIFT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND
WILL HELP GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, BEST CHANCES (40-70%) WILL BE
CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIT
SOUTH AND EAST AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BY MIDDAY OR SO. OVERALL,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH AND UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS. NO
IMPACTS FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY GUSTY BOTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT
WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONT THURSDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME GUSTY AS WELL. WIND GUSTS
30-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL INCREASE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FIRE SPREAD RATES BETWEEN 130-200 FEET/MINUTE LOOK
PLAUSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
HIGHEST SPREAD RATES NORTH OF I-44.
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY FRIDAY MORNING, BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN AND QUICKLY WARM TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY
AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS DUE TO A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY AS WELL AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DESPITE THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW, BUT NON-ZERO,
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALMOST
DAILY AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY ACROSS E OK AND NW AR SITES WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BETWEEN 10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT/ WEDNESDAY MORNING,
MVFR CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SE OK AND W-CENTRAL
AR. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NE OK
AND NW AR BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AREAWIDE. AHEAD OF THE INCREASING LOW CLOUD, FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OK, AND HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTION OF REDUCED VSBYS DURING THE EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 37 57 49 57 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 40 62 51 63 / 0 0 40 30
MLC 42 61 51 61 / 0 0 20 10
BVO 31 57 44 56 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 39 60 50 59 / 0 0 30 40
BYV 39 61 50 59 / 0 0 30 50
MKO 40 60 51 61 / 0 0 20 10
MIO 36 59 48 57 / 0 0 20 10
F10 40 60 50 60 / 0 0 10 0
HHW 44 60 53 63 / 10 20 30 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43
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