851  
FXUS64 KTSA 090157  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
757 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 756 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST  
OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WITH  
A MOIST AIR-MASS IN PLACE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR  
MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN  
TO FILTER INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY  
ALLOW THE HEAVIER FOG TO LIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ELSEWHERE, THE  
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THRU TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY, THE SEPARATION BETWEEN SHALLOW COOL AIR AND WARM, HUMID  
GULF AIR, STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN TX ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND THEN  
ACROSS SOUTHERN AR. THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT RAIN LAST NIGHT  
INTO THIS MORNING IS LIFTING INTO WESTERN NE. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE  
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE STRATUS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY,  
INDICATING SOME MODIFICATION OF THE SHALLOW COOL AIR IS  
OCCURRING, THEREBY ERODING THE INVERSION IN SOME PLACES. NOT MUCH  
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THRU TONIGHT. WEAK  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SW KS CURRENTLY WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS  
KS AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO MO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE  
NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN ITS WAKE, ADVECTING COOLER AND DRIER AIR  
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE WIND  
SHIFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG, SOME POSSIBLY DENSE IN SPOTS, AND  
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL EXIST. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AN  
ISOLATED STORM WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER FAR SE OK CLOSER TO THE  
FRONT.  
 
LACY  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
THE NEXT WAVE TO INDUCE LIFT ATOP THE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE OVER  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL  
SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONCE  
AGAIN, AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.  
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH  
THIS NEXT FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. THUNDER PROBS WERE ADJUSTED  
UPWARD ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR BASED ON THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE.  
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS PRETTY LIMITED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE  
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT WEEK'S POWERFUL STORM  
THAT'S EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER  
ANALYSIS, AS WELL AS THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z GFS/EC/UKMET, HAVE ALL  
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM COMPARED  
TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN OUR  
AREA WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW TRACKING TO  
OUR NORTH. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF  
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT, WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT THERE WOULD BE  
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ALSO, SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK INTO  
WESTERN AR. COLDER, DRIER AND WINDIER WEATHER WILL EXIST IN THE  
WAKE OF THE FRONT THRU THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LARGE  
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY.  
 
LACY  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT  
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR OCCURS AFTER 15-16Z ACROSS NE OK  
AND NW AR. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST PAST 18Z  
AT KFSM/KMLC, POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 42 58 45 58 / 0 0 100 30  
FSM 53 65 53 62 / 20 0 80 90  
MLC 51 61 53 62 / 10 0 90 70  
BVO 33 56 43 57 / 0 0 90 20  
FYV 47 62 47 60 / 10 0 90 80  
BYV 48 60 46 58 / 20 0 80 90  
MKO 47 60 50 59 / 0 0 90 60  
MIO 40 55 42 56 / 0 0 90 40  
F10 46 59 49 60 / 0 0 90 50  
HHW 56 65 58 65 / 30 10 70 90  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST FRIDAY FOR OKZ068>072-074.  
 
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CST FRIDAY FOR OKZ054>067.  
 
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-  
019-020-029.  
 

 
 

 
UPDATE...12  
SHORT TERM...30  
LONG TERM....30  
AVIATION...23  
 
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