089
FXUS64 KTSA 161854
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
154 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER
WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- LOW AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS NW AR THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGHER RAIN POTENTIAL ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING, WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS 109
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
OVERALL, THE SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN LOW, AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY MISS OUT ON THE RAIN. THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD BE ON
THE QUIETER SIDE WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE UNSEASONABLE HEAT WILL EXTEND INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. HEAT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CONTINUED INTO THURSDAY AND MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR SOME AREAS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
LOWER FOR THE WEEKEND ON THEIR NECESSITY, HOWEVER, WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BRINGING SUBSTANTIALLY
COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION EXTENDING INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF ALL OF THIS, WITH RECENT DATA PUSHED ABOUT
A DAY LATER THAN EARLIER EXPECTATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE MUCH
WELCOMED EXPECTATION OF COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, IS
AN INCREASE IN THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY, IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, AND ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS AND
AFOREMENTIONED LOWER DEW POINTS, VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST. THIS COMBINATION, ALONG WITH THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN FUELS,
WILL LEAD TO THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE INFORMATION WE HAVE AT
THE MOMENT AND COORDINATION WITH FIRE MANAGEMENT AGENCIES, THIS
MAY BE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT DAY RATHER THAN SOMETHING STRONGER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
EXPECT DOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVER ERN OK INTO
NWRN/WEST CENTRAL AR THIS AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING, BUT SPATIAL
CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION WITHIN TAF AT THIS
TIME. SRLY WINDS SHOULD BE DOMINANT DURING THE PERIOD AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 77 101 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 76 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 76 100 75 100 / 0 10 0 0
BVO 73 101 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 73 97 72 97 / 0 10 0 0
BYV 74 97 73 97 / 0 10 10 0
MKO 74 103 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 74 98 73 98 / 0 10 10 0
F10 74 100 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 75 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-055>058-
060>071-073>075-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ055>058-
060>063-066>071-073>075-172-176-272.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220-229.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...22/JC
LONG TERM....22/JC
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page