898
FXUS64 KTSA 052313
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 612 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF E OK AND W-CENTRAL AR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- PERIODIC LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINING A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDICES INCREASE TO 100-107 DEGREES. AS A
RESULT, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF E OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR UNTIL 8 PM. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE
MAIN POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412...CLOSER
TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER. SOME LOW POPS
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT FOR FAR NE OK / NW AR AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS, THOUGH THE BULK OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO LAST
NIGHT IN THE 70S FOR MOST.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR
NE OK AND NW AR, BUT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL AGAIN OCCURRING GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 412. BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, HIGHER
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IN NE
OK AND FAR NW AR AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION
WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, BUT ANY STORMS IN THE AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, FLOODING CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER OUR AREA.
APART FROM LOCAL DEVIATIONS CAUSED BY PRECIPITATION OR PROLONGED
CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY IN THE
MID 90S TO LOWER 100S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DEWPOINTS WILL
NOT BE AS HIGH AS DURING OUR LAST HEATWAVE, BUT CERTAINLY STILL
HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS, ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES APPEAR PROBABLE,
THOUGH THE EXACT CONFIGURATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN NE OK AND NW AR. FOR NOW, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS AS WEDNESDAY, NAMELY
THE TULSA METRO AND AR RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE
CLOUD COVER NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER, THE ADVISORY DOES NOT COVER
THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, LOCAL EXPANSIONS MAY BE
REQUIRED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THE HEAT, LOW IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 78 100 78 99 / 10 10 30 20
FSM 76 100 77 99 / 10 10 10 20
MLC 77 100 76 98 / 10 10 0 10
BVO 72 98 72 97 / 20 20 50 40
FYV 71 96 73 94 / 10 10 30 30
BYV 74 95 74 93 / 10 10 30 40
MKO 75 99 74 97 / 10 10 20 10
MIO 74 96 74 93 / 20 20 60 30
F10 75 101 75 99 / 10 10 10 10
HHW 76 96 76 95 / 10 10 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055-056-059>062-
064>067-070-071-073-074-154-176-254-272-354.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ060>062-
064>067-070-071-073-074-176-272.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05
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