102
FXUS64 KTSA 101733
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1233 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND A LIGHT FREEZE MAY
OCCUR FOR A FEW AREAS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UPTICK THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL
JET THAT EXTENDS EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE OR AT MOST
MARGINALLY SEVERE INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN ITS LOCATION IN A
RELATIVE MINIMUM OF INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
THIS SHOULD SHIFT LARGELY EAST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THERE HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SIGNALS IN THE CAMS OVER
THE LAST 24 TO 35 HOURS THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD DEVELOP
WITHIN AN INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THAT AREA. CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PLENTY OF MUCAPE ALREADY ALONG WITH MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. IF A STORM CAN GO IN THIS ENVIRONMENT,
A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS, PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF LARGE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS.
THE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND HIGHEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING TORNADOES, REMAINS LIKELY TO OCCUR
FROM MID TO LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. A
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA EARLY
EVENING AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST IN TEXAS.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE RAMP
UP OF THE LOW LEVEL JET, LEADING TO TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY
FAVORED AREAS OF THE EXPECTED LINE. THIS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA, EARLIER IN THE EVENT. THE LINE
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME DECREASE
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LOWER INSTABILITY IN FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY, WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST DURING MAINLY THE MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DONE BY
DAYBREAK. THE GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, PRIMARILY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS WITH
TONIGHT'S EVENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S. PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY FREEZE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST, WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS, WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE COLDEST AIR. MUCH COLDER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE
SEEN OF LATE WILL OPEN NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES, BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON FUELS ACROSS THE AREA,
LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. THE
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE VFR
CEILINGS AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS REMAINS ON TRACK FROM MID
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS AND STRONG VRB WIND GUSTS. WILL CARRY THE WORST
CONDITIONS IN NE OK GIVEN RECENT CAM SOLUTIONS, WITH A MODEST
DECREASE IN INTENSITY FOR THE W AR SITES GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOWER
INSTABILITY THERE. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE IN
SPEED/GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES DURING THE LAST 6-8 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD FOLLOWING THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE FRONT AT MOST SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 83 55 64 35 / 20 60 40 0
FSM 80 63 73 37 / 30 90 60 0
MLC 79 60 71 37 / 30 90 40 0
BVO 86 49 62 30 / 20 50 30 0
FYV 78 57 67 32 / 30 90 60 0
BYV 78 58 64 34 / 20 80 70 0
MKO 80 58 67 34 / 20 80 40 0
MIO 80 50 62 32 / 20 60 60 0
F10 81 57 68 35 / 20 80 30 0
HHW 78 62 76 38 / 40 90 50 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...22
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