513
FXUS64 KTSA 181705
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1154 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
- PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF NW AR AND SE OK.
- THERE ARE LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY BETTER
RAIN/STORM CHANCES WITH A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CANADA SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND
DOWN INTO THE BIG BEND AREA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE CHILLY DAY FOR MID APRIL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT,
THE CENTER OF WHICH SETTLING DOWN OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A NOD TOWARD THE COLDER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEY AREAS OF NW AR AND SE OK, WHERE LOWS WILL DIP
FAR ENOUGH INTO THE 30S TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
THE PATCHY NATURE OF THE FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT, A HEADLINE IS
NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
LACY
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A WARM ADVECTION SIGNAL IN BOTH THE GFS AND EC,
ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE TRAVERSING ACROSS TX THAT WOULD SUGGEST A
LOW POP FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS WARRANTED FOR
TUESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THEN PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
BY THURSDAY. FOCUS THAT DAY WILL BE ON THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY. SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL RAMP UP THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS, BUT
STORM COVERAGE MAY BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. RAIN/STORM CHANCES
INCREASE WITH THE FRONT INTO FRIDAY, WITH SOME CONTINUED SEVERE
AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
LACY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS PICK UP SOME AND TURN OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 42 74 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 40 74 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 38 74 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 36 74 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 34 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 39 69 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 39 72 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 38 70 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
F10 39 72 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 39 72 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page