471
FXUS64 KTSA 310519
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1219 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT PUSHES
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ATTACHED TO THE SURFACE LOW IS A BOUNDARY
WHICH LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI. LATEST INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT THIS
BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTHWEST OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, BREEZY TO
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN COMMON
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IN RESPONSE, LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE CWA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER DANGER
OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH MIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 30-45 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION ORIGINATING FROM THE DRYLINE OUT WEST MONDAY EVENING
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY AND EASTWARD EXTENT MONDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET COULD ALLOW FOR A
REMNANT STRONGER WIND GUST TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THE GREATER
PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED NEAR/ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS
MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY. TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OVER AN
EXPANDING AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND THE BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE CWA,
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. IF
THE BOUNDARY SAGS FAR ENOUGH TO CLIP NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THERE COULD
BE A WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE POTENTIAL
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA RETREATS BACK NORTHWARD
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
AGAIN, WARM CONDITIONS AND BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE CWA. LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THEN BECOME MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE JOINS UP WITH SURFACE LOW AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. STORM CHANCES INCREASE OUT WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE.
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIALS EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS. WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY LOOK TO WEAKEN AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A MORE SATURATED COLUMN. THUS, A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALSO EXISTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMB INTO THE 75-99TH PERCENT-TILE. STORM CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN/TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ONCE
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT SEEM TO BE IMPACTED ALL THAT MUCH
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH ALLOWS FOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
CWA FRIDAY EVENING AND EXIT MID/LATE SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASING
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO INCREASE
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND BECOME MORE LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIALS AS WELL AS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AGAIN DEVELOP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. PRECIP CHANCES FINALLY EXIT SATURDAY EVENING
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE CWA BETWEEN A WESTERN RIDGE AND THE EASTERN TROF.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. LOW CLOUDS MAY APPROACH KMLC
BY SUNRISE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL CEILINGS. OTHERWISE
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INTO NE OK TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MENTION
INCLUDED FOR KBVO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 86 66 84 64 / 10 30 30 90
FSM 86 64 85 67 / 0 0 10 70
MLC 85 67 85 66 / 0 20 10 90
BVO 87 61 84 61 / 10 50 30 100
FYV 83 64 83 64 / 0 20 20 80
BYV 82 65 83 65 / 10 20 20 60
MKO 84 65 83 63 / 0 20 20 90
MIO 84 64 82 61 / 10 40 40 90
F10 85 65 84 61 / 0 30 20 90
HHW 83 64 82 64 / 0 0 10 70
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07
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