773
FXUS64 KTSA 300527
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1227 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RAISE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK,
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
ANOTHER WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP MONDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DESPITE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AREAS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 FROM 10 AM-9 PM MONDAY,
WHERE A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 40 MILES AN HOUR LOOK LIKELY,
SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY, BUT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PERHAPS KNOCKING BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
PEAK WIND GUSTS BACK SLIGHTLY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE BETTER STORM
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OR NORTH OF THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
DRIFT INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST A LOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY, THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES, COOLER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. LLWS PERSISTS INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE WANING
AND SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE OK SITES. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EVENING WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ PROVIDING LLWS AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS WORKING INTO SE
OK AND NW AR THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 87 67 86 63 / 0 0 10 50
FSM 87 61 87 63 / 0 0 0 20
MLC 84 64 84 65 / 0 0 0 30
BVO 89 65 87 59 / 0 0 20 70
FYV 84 62 84 61 / 0 0 0 30
BYV 82 64 82 64 / 0 0 10 30
MKO 85 64 85 63 / 0 0 0 40
MIO 84 65 83 62 / 0 0 20 60
F10 84 64 83 64 / 0 0 10 40
HHW 83 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ054>057-059>062-064.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43
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