274
FXUS64 KTSA 120543
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1243 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
- A WINDOW FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STEADILY EXPAND THROUGH CENTRAL TX THIS
EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSE AIDED
BY AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL WAVE. INSTABILITY DOES DECREASE
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTION INCLUDING ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA, AND THE FAVORED SCENARIO REMAINS OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WITH SCATTERED STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS. BY
AFTERNOON, EXPECT INSTABILITY TO RECOVER ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE OVERTURNED AIRMASS AND A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORM REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR
THIS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT IT WILL BE A FORECAST TIME FRAME TO MONITOR.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
DRYLINE SHARPENS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT EXPANDING IN A
BROAD FETCH INCLUDING THE LOCAL REGION. MOST GUIDANCE REMAINS
RELUCTANT TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS AN EARLY DAY
WAVE PASSAGE PLACES WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THE RESULT IS A HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST AS OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BUT ANY STORM WHICH
DOES DEVELOP MAY MAINTAIN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO A SMALL
PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
SIMILAR PATTERN DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. FORCING CONTINUES TO APPEAR MORE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECASTS WOULD FAVOR A
WINDOW FOR HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE PASSAGE ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC
FRONT IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MARK A PERIOD OF HIGHER
STORM COVERAGE AND AGAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE. WHILE DETAILS BECOME LESS DEFINED AT THIS FORECAST RANGE,
MULTIPLE EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUITES SUPPORT A HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR THE LOCAL REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
A BRIEF LULL IN STORM CHANCES MAY OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE STORM
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LLWS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
ADVANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY PRECEDE GREATER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE AROUND 10-14Z FOR E OK SITES. SHOWERS AND
STORMS GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND IMPACT NW
AR SITES BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS TIME, WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER STORMS. PRECIP ENDS
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE OVER E OK
SITES FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING, BUT OTHERWISE, MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY, WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 77 67 83 70 / 100 20 10 10
FSM 78 66 84 67 / 80 60 30 10
MLC 76 67 83 68 / 90 40 20 10
BVO 77 62 84 65 / 90 20 10 10
FYV 75 63 81 66 / 80 50 20 10
BYV 75 65 81 68 / 80 50 20 10
MKO 75 65 82 67 / 100 30 10 10
MIO 73 65 81 68 / 90 30 10 10
F10 77 66 84 68 / 100 20 10 10
HHW 75 65 79 65 / 80 50 30 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43
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