738
FXUS64 KTSA 231006
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
406 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 404 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN
OF WARM WEATHER AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS COMMON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE
ONGOING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ARE FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH COMMON OVER THE CWA. GREATER MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON MIN HUMIDITY VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AS WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED. IN RESPONSE, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
BURNING SHOULD LIKELY BE AVOIDED TUESDAY. FIRE WEATHER DANGER
SHOULD DECREASE TUESDAY NIGH WITH WEAKENING WINDS AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHILE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS COMMON. MUCH OF THE CWA LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL AID IN CONTINUED ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, THOUGH HIGHER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE COULD
CREATE AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THUNDER POTENTIALS JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA UNTIL
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THURSDAY
MORNING WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS SHORT-LIVED WHILE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES
OVER THE CWA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN
FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WHICH COULD CREATE LIMITED FIRE
WEATHER DANGERS EACH AFTERNOON. BEYOND FRIDAY, LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH A WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVING
OUT INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE LIMITED.
WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP THIS MORNING FOR A FEW
HOURS, WITH GUSTS OF 15 KTS OR SO FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST OK. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NO RAIN, SO VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 49 35 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 51 30 67 46 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 52 36 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 46 29 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 46 28 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 43 28 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 49 33 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 43 29 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
F10 50 35 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 55 34 68 53 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06
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