309
FXUS64 KTSA 240447
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
- AFTER A RELATIVE LULL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, NEAR DAILY RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL IN NW AR
SATURDAY EVENING HAVE WEEKEND SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN PERSISTS EARLY
TONIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SPARSE AND
FOCUSED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE FA
OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS NE OK
INTO NW AR. FOG MAY BECOME DENSE WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE
MILE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS SATURDAY.
AFTER FOG DISSIPATES SUNDAY MORNING, MOSTLY QUIET AND
PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80
WITH LIGHT NE WINDS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY
BEFORE AN UPPER LOW GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF
TEXAS/LOUISIANA. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASING RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES ACROSS SE OK AND INTO W-CENTRAL AR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH E OK AND W AR ON
TUESDAY, PROVIDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS OUR AR ZONES. A
SHORTWAVE THEN ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
KEEPING POPS ELEVATED AREAWIDE. BY LATE WEEK, AN OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES WITH LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT TENDING TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP
DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE GENERALLY WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL HELP KEEP SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES LOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING OVER THE CWA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE REGION. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH A LOW THUNDER
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO REMAIN COMMON FOR MAINLY FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO MID EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF AND EXIT TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
CAPABLE WITHIN THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO
SCATTER OUT WHICH WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TIMING OF THE GREATER
POTENTIAL, WITH THE GREATER CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH
A FEW PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO SUNDAY AND THEN BECOME MORE EAST
TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 61 82 61 84 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 63 85 64 84 / 30 0 0 20
MLC 62 84 62 85 / 10 0 0 10
BVO 57 82 57 85 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 58 82 59 83 / 40 0 0 20
BYV 59 80 59 81 / 70 0 0 20
MKO 61 82 61 84 / 10 0 0 10
MIO 59 82 59 84 / 20 0 0 0
F10 60 82 60 85 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 64 83 64 82 / 10 0 0 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page