184
FXUS64 KTSA 261725
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM STORM CHANCES ACROSS FAR E OK AND W AR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BEHIND A FRONT TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK,
BEFORE A WARMUP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AREAS OF LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OCCURS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORTICITY MAX IS TRACKING EASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS
IT APPROACHES PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF CLOUD COVER OR ANY SHOWERS, HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS EXISTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE ALREADY COMMON ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY POOLING ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY, HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE PUSHED ABOVE 100 DEGREES F IN
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS THAT
ARE LESS LIKELY TO SEE APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIMIT FURTHER WARMUP ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA, SO HAVE KEPT THOSE LOCATIONS OUT OF THE
ADVISORY FOR NOW, THOUGH IT COULD BE EXPANDED LATER BASED AS
TRENDS SUGGEST.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THE LOBE OF VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO TRACK
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS A PSEUDO WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY SET
UP OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS DIURNAL TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR PEAK DURING THE
MID AFTERNOON. BEST STORM CHANCES LOOK TO SET UP NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS, EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WOULD SUGGEST
SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG
THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AS THEY EXTEND OUT IN ALL DIRECTIONS. A
GENERAL SOUTHWARD MOTION WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES TRANSITIONING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. DEEP INVERTED V PROFILES AND MEAGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL FAVOR A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD WANE NEAR
AND AFTER SUNSET. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS COULD LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY ALONG THE RED RIVER, AS THE VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
OTHERWISE, DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH
FRIDAY OVER THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE FORECAST REMAINING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
THE RIDGE MAY SHIFT FAR OF ENOUGH EAST BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK, TO ALLOW ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COME NEAR THE AREA,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK UP THROUGH NORTHWEST
AR, WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING ALL
POSSIBLE. SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 73 95 71 95 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 74 98 72 97 / 30 30 10 0
MLC 72 98 70 97 / 10 20 10 10
BVO 68 94 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 68 94 66 94 / 30 20 0 0
BYV 69 92 66 91 / 20 10 0 0
MKO 71 97 69 95 / 10 20 0 0
MIO 69 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 0
F10 71 96 69 95 / 10 20 10 0
HHW 73 98 72 95 / 20 20 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ056>058-060>063-
066>068-070-071-074-075-176-272-276.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
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