962
FXUS64 KTSA 290517
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1217 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- HOT, HUMID AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THIS WEEK. HEAT ADVISORY
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND
MAY BE NEEDED IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING.
- FLOODING AND HIGH WATER CONTINUE ON AREA MAINSTEM RIVERS IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
- LOW CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK
AND NW AR DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. LOW STORM CHANCES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
QUITE WARM WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS, LIKELY YIELDING LOWS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S. YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. DEWPOINTS WERE A TAD LOWER
SUNDAY WHICH KEPT MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 102-106 RANGE WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON
SUNDAY OBSERVATIONS AND IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE, WHICH
SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER-END ADVISORY HEAT INDICES FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BETWEEN 1 AND 8
PM FOR PORTIONS OF NE OK AS WELL AS THE AR RIVER VALLEY. NO
CHANGE TO THE CONFIGURATION WAS MADE AT THIS TIME. ALSO SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY, BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH. SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN, THOUGH THEY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH SLIGHT CHANGES IN DAILY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT VALUES ARE EXPECTED. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE HEAT INDICES MAY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DEWPOINTS DECREASE A FEW DEGREES. BY
THURSDAY, HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS/SLIDES EASTWARD SLIGHTLY
PERMITTING MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BRING HEAT INDICES BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
PRIMARILY OVER THE TERRAIN OF SE OK AND NW AR. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RECONFIGURES THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES FOCUSED
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A WEAKNESS OVER THE C TO S PLAINS. THIS
MAY PERMIT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE THE FORM OF
PULSE SHOWERS/STORMS, IMPLYING A MESSY AND VARIABLE RAINFALL
FOOTPRINT. OVERALL, TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, HOWEVER AT LEAST TRANSIENT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BY AROUND 12Z FROM SE OK
THROUGH NW AR. LLWS AT ALL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO
INCREASING SOUTH WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 80 95 78 94 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 77 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 79 94 77 93 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 78 93 76 93 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 74 92 74 92 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 75 93 72 91 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 78 93 75 93 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 77 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 0
F10 77 94 76 92 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 76 93 75 92 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ055>058-060>062-067-070-074-176-254-272-354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14
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