161
FXUS64 KTSA 090509
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1109 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1107 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING MAINLY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE OUACHITAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH PROMOTING LIMITED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
- NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK
BEFORE ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW
COUNTIES WITH VISIBILITIES LOCALLY FALLING BELOW A MILE OR LESS.
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FREEZING FOG COULD DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES
FALL TO NEAR FREEZING, BUT COVERAGE AND ANY IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AND NO ADVISORY IS PLANNED WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT REEVALUATE AND ISSUE
AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED. DOWNSLOPING SW FLOW STRENGTHENS TODAY AS LEE
TROUGHING TIGHTENS PRESSURE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S, WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SOUTHWEST WINDS INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. AS A RESULT, LIMITED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS MIN RHS FALL
INTO THE 35-45% RANGE AND IT HAS BEEN ONE TO TWO WEEKS SINCE THE
LAST WETTING RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
WINDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP
HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 40S IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/ WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE FRONT
ADVANCES THROUGH THE FA, BRINGING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS TO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. SOUTHWEST FLOW
THEN RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND LEE
TROUGHING REDEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOWER 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, COOLING
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR, WHERE
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 50 DEGREES. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA OVER THE WEEKEND, PULLING HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO START
NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CREEP INTO SE OK AND W AR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WILL
HOLD POPS JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, BUT AN INCREASE MAY
BE REQUIRED IF IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL EXPAND THIS FAR WEST PRIOR
TO FROPA. APART FROM THE SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS TO END THE WEEK,
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM, WITH NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUD. SHORT TERM MODELS STILL FORECAST LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO STAY SOUTH OF THE OUACHITAS AND AWAY FROM KMLC
AND KFSM. REMOVED SCT MENTION OF LOW CLOUD AT KFSM. SFC WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KTS ACROSS E OK AND FAR NW AR.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 46 33 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 49 31 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 49 33 61 42 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 46 29 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 48 32 58 41 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 45 32 58 43 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 46 32 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 43 32 57 41 / 0 0 0 0
F10 48 33 62 42 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 51 31 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30
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