536
FXUS64 KTSA 111117
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- NEAR RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
ARE LOOKING MORE PROBABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP SUNDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
DESPITE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS DRIFTING OVER THE AREA. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP, WHICH WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, WITH HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT LEAST ON
MONDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES TUESDAY ALONG
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
IN CHECK COMPARED TO MONDAY.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. AND A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND A
LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A
PERIOD OF NOTABLE HIGH CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT
RANGE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE GUSTS SHOULD MOSTLY DECOUPLE
AFTER 00Z, HOWEVER LLWS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME PREVALENT MAINLY
AT NE OK TERMINALS LATE IN THE FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 70 91 74 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 93 66 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 91 68 89 74 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 90 66 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 90 63 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 90 67 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 90 68 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 88 68 88 71 / 0 0 0 0
F10 90 68 89 72 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 90 66 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14
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