571
FXUS64 KTSA 132317
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
- A LOW THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY.
- A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT BISECTS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA
SIGNIFYING THE LACK OF AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE UNDERWAY BY LATE MORNING
SATURDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO
THE 70S. INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL OFFSET HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS AND
WARMER CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS WEST OF US 75 WHERE
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT MAINTAINING
A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SATURDAY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
BETTER DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY BRINGING IMPACTFUL WINDS TO THE ENTIRE AREA AND A LOW
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. SUNDAY WILL START OUT
VERY MILD THANKS TO LOW CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE IN
THE MORNING THEN QUICKLY PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS IT
INTERSECTS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT WINDS SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. ONE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL THUNDERSTORMS THREAT UNTIL THE BOUNDARY MOVES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
WINDS AT 850 MB OF 45-50 KT ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL (40 TO 45 MPH) WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH READINGS INTO THE 30 SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. RAPID TO EXTREME
FIRE SPREAD RATES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS, HOWEVER, THOSE THAT MISS OUT ON
THE RAIN WILL LIKELY SEE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS VERY DRY AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WITH
WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A
TRANSITION TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT,
NON- IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER, VISIBILITIES
WILL BE RESTRICTED WITH ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AS WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES STARTING OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY AS
WINDS ARE SLOW TO DIMINISH UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE DAY.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND PROVIDES A QUICK WARM UP WITH READINGS BY
MIDWEEK BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S. CONTINUED WARMING WITH DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FINISH NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A CONTINUED
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
EAST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 48 79 60 67 / 0 0 0 30
FSM 48 80 58 71 / 0 0 0 80
MLC 51 78 60 72 / 0 0 0 30
BVO 41 79 53 65 / 0 0 0 30
FYV 47 77 55 66 / 0 0 0 80
BYV 46 75 58 67 / 0 0 0 90
MKO 48 77 60 72 / 0 0 0 40
MIO 46 75 56 67 / 0 0 0 60
F10 48 78 60 70 / 0 0 0 30
HHW 49 77 59 77 / 0 0 0 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...14
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