737
FXUS64 KTSA 030527
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1227 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PEAK ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. HEAT ADVISORY
HEADLINES LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
- LOW STORMS CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND
GREATER COVERAGE ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN A PERSISTENT PATTERN DURING THE
TRANSITION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ORIENTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS AND LIKE THURSDAY THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THURSDAY SAW DEWPOINTS INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY WHICH PUSHED THE HEAT INDEX AT SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE
105F. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD OFFSET TEMPERATURES SOME ADDING MORE
UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WOULD BE MET. BASED ON
EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE WILL OPT TO FORGO AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. AS
DEWPOINTS TRENDS AND CLOUD COVER BECOME MORE CERTAIN, A SHORT TERM
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE IN ORDER.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
ANY ONGOING SHOWERS OR STORM ACTIVITY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING LEAVING
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE PERIOD AS BOTH H8 TEMPS AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE THE THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID 90S, HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO
REACH 105-110F ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE TERRAIN OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE SOME RESIDUAL MID- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE, OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED. BETTER RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS KANSAS TOWARD
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME TO HELP SUSTAIN THE ACTIVITY AND BRING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR OUTFLOW IS LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTH AND HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY TO MAINTAIN SHOWER AND STORMS WITH COVERAGE
INCREASING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER MCS LOOKS TO FORM
NEARBY AND DROP INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE TO
OUR WEST ATTEMPTS REBUILDS THOUGH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY COMBINED WITH SEASONALLY HIGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP SCATTERED PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BEFORE
THE THREAT OF DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDICES RETURN BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS E OK
SITES, WITH DIURNAL SCATTERED CUMULUS ALSO DEVELOPING BY MID
MORNING ACROSS ALL SITES. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK
INTO NW AR TERMINALS, BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DROPPING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 93 77 97 76 / 10 0 10 20
FSM 94 76 95 76 / 20 10 10 10
MLC 93 76 95 77 / 20 0 10 10
BVO 93 75 96 73 / 0 0 10 40
FYV 90 73 91 73 / 20 10 10 20
BYV 90 72 91 71 / 20 10 20 20
MKO 92 75 95 75 / 20 0 10 10
MIO 91 74 94 73 / 10 0 10 30
F10 92 74 95 74 / 10 0 10 10
HHW 90 74 93 74 / 20 10 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...04
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