953  
FXUS64 KTSA 241753  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
 
- PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY.  
 
- LOW AND CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK INTO WESTERN AR.  
 
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION  
TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THROUGH TONIGHT )  
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
 
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING ROUGHLY  
ALONG THE RED RIVER, WITH COOL, CLOUDY AND RAIN COOLED AIR IN  
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OK. THE CURRENT ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS  
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OK, LIKELY FORCED BY WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT,  
IS LIKELY TO END THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE IS  
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TX AND  
OK AS LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE LOW  
LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS THAT IS IN PLACE THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL  
SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING  
TO MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS  
NE OK AS IS, WITH SOME THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE  
WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
LACY  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
 
BY SATURDAY MORNING, A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO PUNCH INTO OK FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON,  
DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE. THE LATEST CAM DATA DEVELOPS STORMS  
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK  
INTO WESTERN AR TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW. IF THERE IS  
ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE DRY SLOT, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY  
IN A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO YIELD A  
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST AND  
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY.  
 
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE ENERGETIC SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF AN EXTENDED CROSS-PACIFIC JET. THE  
12Z GFS/CANADIAN BOTH BUCKLE THE JET AND CLOSE OFF A 500MB LOW  
NEARBY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WOULD WARRANT THE LOW POPS  
FROM THE MODEL BLEND IN THE NORTH AND EAST. A STRONG FRONT IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER  
ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO FORCE CONVECTION UNTIL IT GETS WELL  
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG WIND GUSTS,  
LIKELY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA, ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KS DOWN INTO EASTERN OK. WINDS MAY  
BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY, WITH QUIET, FALL WEATHER TO  
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  
 
LACY  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
 
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES  
OVER MUCH OF NE OK AND NW AR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH MORE  
SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR SITES. OCCASIONAL  
MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS  
THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS CIGS  
LOWER AND MIST/FOG DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK SITES WHERE  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST. OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS  
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, WITH THUNDER  
CHANCES DIMINISHING AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW MORNING.  
 
BOWLAN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 56 63 56 66 / 100 80 50 20  
FSM 57 65 58 69 / 80 70 70 40  
MLC 57 68 56 70 / 90 80 50 30  
BVO 52 62 51 64 / 90 90 60 20  
FYV 52 64 52 66 / 80 80 70 50  
BYV 51 60 52 61 / 80 70 70 60  
MKO 56 63 56 68 / 90 80 60 30  
MIO 53 61 53 64 / 90 90 60 30  
F10 55 65 55 69 / 90 80 40 20  
HHW 57 69 59 73 / 90 80 60 20  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ054>056-059>061-  
064>067-070-071.  
 
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...30  
LONG TERM....30  
AVIATION...14  
 
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