392
FXUS64 KTSA 041137
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PEAK ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS MOST OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
- LOW STORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HIGHER STORM CHANCES/
COVERAGE AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND COULD IMPACT THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCREASING
AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DIED OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET. THE MODELS
FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE PEGGED SATURDAY AS THE HOTTEST DAY, RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. A NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE LLTR IS EXPECTED FROM THE
PANHANDLES ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER KS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MERCURY TO CLIMB A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL
BE ACROSS FAR NE OK NEAR THE KS BORDER, WHERE POTENTIAL OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT STORMS OVER KS COULD KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY COOLER THERE.
FORECAST HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK, AS WELL AS THE LOWER ARK RIVER
VALLEY OF WEST-CENTRAL AR.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME SPOTTY AFTERNOON STORMS ON SATURDAY, MUCH LIKE
THERE WAS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM SE OK INTO NW AR. GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE GENERAL IDEA OF AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG A FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KS AND EVENTUALLY
INTO NORTHERN OK IS PRESENT IN MUCH OF THE MODEL DATA. THIS IS ALL
IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THERE IS
ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE CAMS (RRFS, HRRR) AND THE GFS THAT
AN MCS WILL EVOLVE FROM THESE STORMS AND TRACK SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT FROM THE PASSING WAVE, DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR MORE ORGANIZED DISCRETE STORMS INITIALLY, BEFORE STORMS CONGEAL
INTO A COMPLEX AND COME SOUTH. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
FROM THE INITIAL STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WITH ANY COMPLEX (OR COMPLEXES) THAT ORGANIZES. THE FASTER TIMING
OF THE STORMS FROM RECENT CAM DATA SUGGESTS THE ACTIVITY COULD
IMPACT THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY EVENING FESTIVITIES.
THE MCS SHOULD SHOVE THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AND
COULD FOCUS MORE STORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE
REGION, DEPENDING ON HOW IT EVOLVES OVER OUR AREA THAT MORNING.
THESE STORMS COULD ALSO GROW UPSCALE AND DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE RED
RIVER BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE MORE SOUTHEAST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST EAST OF OUR AREA,
SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS WELL. POP-UP AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST
THURSDAY COULD LEAD TO INCREASED STORM CHANCES WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUD INTO THE AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND TRACK TOWARD NE OK SITES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. ANY STORMS WILL CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VSBY ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. STORMS WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD SE OK AND NW AR, WHILE
WEAKENING, THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
AROUND OR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. MORE
VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING AND AFTER THE COMPLEX OF
STORMS PASSES OVER THE AREA.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 97 75 90 73 / 10 70 40 20
FSM 95 75 93 74 / 20 30 30 50
MLC 96 76 93 73 / 10 40 40 40
BVO 96 72 89 70 / 10 70 30 10
FYV 92 72 88 69 / 20 40 40 40
BYV 92 71 87 69 / 20 40 30 40
MKO 95 74 91 71 / 10 50 40 40
MIO 94 72 87 69 / 20 60 50 20
F10 96 74 92 71 / 10 50 60 30
HHW 94 74 93 74 / 20 10 20 40
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ055>067-070-071-073-074-154-176-254-272-354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04
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