131
FXUS64 KTSA 101343
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
843 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 830 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
- LOW THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE
THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES INCREASE AREAWIDE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL HEAT IMPACTS EACH DAY.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 830 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
ADDED LOW POPS ACROSS OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES FOR LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING TIME PERIOD FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SPC OUTLOOK.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF IT. JET STREAK
AND SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF SOUTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST KS WILL AID IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED.
DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD IF ACTIVITY DOES
MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST. ALSO INCREASED POPS CLOSER TO 10% ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE LATEST CAMS SHOW SOME POPUP ACTIVITY.
PROXIMITY TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL UPDRAFTS.
HOT, HUMID AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE AR RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE CWA CLOSER TO A THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO
NORTHERN OK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT, HUMID, AND BREEZY DAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES
IN SOME PLACES, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS A BAND OF HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
ACROSS, BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THURSDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, BUT PERHAPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE AREA, AND A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, WITH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHING WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SATURDAY. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE, ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE DATA THAT AN
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF KANSAS AND
ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BOTH BE POSSIBLE IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, WITH STORM CHANCES FINALLY STARTING TO WIND DOWN BY
TUESDAY ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARS THE AREA. SOME COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MAY ALSO FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
ACROSS FAR SE OK AND FAR W. AR, TRYING TO EXPAND WESTWARD. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS MAY PUSH OVER KMLC FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING,
WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR IS
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY
AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING, PEAKING THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS THROUGH
SUNSET THIS EVENING. PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CIGS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT ANY
PARTICULAR TAF SITE AT THIS TIME.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 79 93 68 / 10 10 30 80
FSM 93 78 94 74 / 10 10 0 90
MLC 91 78 93 74 / 10 10 0 90
BVO 92 78 94 64 / 10 20 50 50
FYV 90 75 91 68 / 10 10 0 90
BYV 89 75 90 67 / 10 10 10 90
MKO 91 78 92 70 / 10 10 10 90
MIO 90 77 91 63 / 10 10 40 80
F10 90 78 92 70 / 10 10 10 90
HHW 91 78 92 76 / 10 10 0 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...67
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