430
FXUS64 KTSA 101110
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS STRONGER SOUTH WINDS RETURN.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOW A
MORE SIGNIFICANT RISE BY TUESDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE PLAINS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN OUR AREA, BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND UKMET
HOLD THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM BACK WEST, WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. EITHER WAY, A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BY LATE WEEK BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DICTATE WHETHER WE SEE
SOME COOL FALL MORNINGS FOR A CHANGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY, MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 65 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 92 62 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 91 62 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 90 58 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 89 55 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 88 61 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 91 63 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 88 62 88 68 / 0 0 0 0
F10 91 64 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 90 63 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14
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