252
FXUS64 KTSA 242335
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR SOUTH
OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
- DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE AN ACTIVE PATTERN RESUMES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
A WEST-TO-EAST BOUNDARY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH WITH EXISTING OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. DAYTIME HEATING AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN A REINVIGORATION OF STORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. MOST CAMS AGREE THAT SCATTERED SUPERCELL
FORMATION IS LIKELY. SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS RELATIVELY
LOW, AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE DECENT VERTICAL DEPTH, SO
HAIL SHOULD DOMINATE INITIALLY. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS
BALLS MAY OCCUR. WITH THAT SAID, ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG
WIND REMAIN POSSIBLE. OVER TIME, STORMS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A
LINE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST, WITH WIND AND PERHAPS QLCS TORNADOES
BECOMING MORE LIKELY INTO THE LATE EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 70
MPH MAY OCCUR.
AREAS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SEE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH SOME
NORTHERLY BREEZES. OVERNIGHT, TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL MORE
EFFECTIVELY THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST SPOTS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE OLD BOUNDARY SURGE BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. CAMS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL GO, BUT THIS IS
CRITICALLY IMPORTANT FOR IDENTIFYING WHERE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
MAXIMIZE. CURRENTLY THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MCALESTER AND HENRYETTA, ANGLING EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO WEST- CENTRAL ARKANSAS. BUT SOME GUIDANCE PUSHES THIS
CORRIDOR FURTHER NORTH. AREAS NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL SEE THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. CAMS ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN EVEN IF THEY
AREN'T SURE WHERE IT WILL HAPPEN, WHICH IS MULTIPLE DISCRETE RIGHT
MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, BUT VERY LARGE
HAIL IN PARTICULAR. AS TYPICALLY OCCURS, THESE CELLS WILL FAVOR
CONGEALING INTO AN MCS OVER TIME, WITH MORE OF A WIND AND RAIN
THREAT LATER ON.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A VERY UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ATMOSPHERE WITH THE
DRY LINE WEST OF THE AREA AND WARM SECTOR OVERHEAD. THE QUESTION
WILL BE CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IF STORMS CAN GET GOING, THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER. BUT AS OF NOW, SOME MODELS SHOW STORM ACTIVITY AND SOME DO
NOT. THOSE THAT DO SHOW IT BEING MOST LIKELY NEAR THE OK-KS-MO
TRIPLE POINT, AND PROPAGATING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FROM THERE. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY, BUT ULTIMATELY LIKELY DEPENDS ON
WHAT HAPPENS ON SATURDAY. MONDAY WILL BE WARM WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM STORM
ACTIVITY, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON (MOSTLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA). SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 70S
BEYOND THE FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT FSM/MLC
FOR THE FIRST TWO TO THREE HOURS OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SITES
PRIOR TO 00Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH
THE EVENING, EXCEPT AT MLC/FSM, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO
LOCALLY, IFR FOG AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AND EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE E OK SITES MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. W AR SITES WILL SEE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR THESE IMPACTS
AFTER THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 56 79 62 81 / 0 50 70 30
FSM 60 82 63 83 / 40 40 80 30
MLC 59 83 63 83 / 30 60 70 20
BVO 53 78 58 80 / 0 50 50 40
FYV 54 81 59 79 / 30 30 70 40
BYV 55 76 59 76 / 30 10 50 40
MKO 56 78 61 80 / 20 50 70 30
MIO 54 78 58 77 / 10 20 50 50
F10 57 80 61 81 / 20 60 70 20
HHW 61 84 63 82 / 30 30 70 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22
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