183  
FXUS64 KTSA 201839  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
139 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON )  
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2024  
 
WARM, HUMID, BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF POTENTIAL  
INSTABILITY, BUT A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM  
INITIATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 80S TO  
LOW 90S, DECREASING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S OVERNIGHT. A BREEZY  
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE PRESENT FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2024  
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY  
WITH GOOD HEIGHT FALLS, IMPLYING BROAD LIFT OVER THE AREA.  
ADDITIONALLY, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE POSITIONED TO ALLOW  
FOR GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER DOWN,  
DECENT CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FURTHER AID IN  
PROMOTING LIFT. STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT, FOCUSING IN THE  
MID LEVELS. THESE FACTORS WILL COME INTO PLAY WITH A VERY WARM  
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, WITH 3000-4000 J OF MLCAPE AND PWAT  
VALUES APPROACHING 1.5". THESE VALUES ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL  
WITH THE EPS EFI FOR CAPE-SHEAR SHOWING VALUES OF 0.7 TO 0.8.  
MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS,  
WITH THE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN THE SURFACE TO 850 HPA LAYER NEAR  
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING  
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HOWEVER, CAMS ARE UNCERTAIN WITH  
RESPECT TO WHERE AND WHEN THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO GET GOING,  
WHICH MOSTLY STEMS BACK TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE CAPPING  
INVERSION IS BROKEN. WHEREVER STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY WILL CERTAINLY  
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. WITH THAT IN MIND, STORMS  
WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN NORTHEAST OK IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR  
EARLY EVENING, INITIALLY AS DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS.  
STORMS WILL THEN CONGEAL AND MOVE INTO EAST-CENTRAL OK AND  
NORTHWEST AR IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. DISCRETE  
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING  
HAIL, WIND, TORNADOES, AND HEAVY RAIN. AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE, THE  
THREAT FOR HAIL WILL DIMINISH AND WIND WILL INCREASE. THERE IS  
SOME QUESTION OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, WITH MOST MODELS NOT SHOWING  
STORMS EVERYWHERE. ACCORDINGLY, KEPT POPS MOSTLY IN THE 50-70%  
RANGE FOR NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR, WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS  
TO THE SOUTH.  
 
THE COLD FRONT DRIVING TUESDAY'S STORMS WILL SAG SOUTH, SETTLING  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK OR PERHAPS NORTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, BUT  
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP WELL  
TO THE NORTH, EVEN INTO NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR. MODEL  
SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG, SO SEVERE HAIL  
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST OK, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PROMOTE A FLASH FLOOD  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS.  
 
THE COLD FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY, NOW AS A WARM FRONT,  
WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL INSTABILITY, WIND SHEAR, AND LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN PRODUCES WIDESPREAD SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE STRONGEST SIGNAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK  
INTO WEST-CENTRAL AR. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE  
CONSIDERING THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT FLOW FOR  
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT, BUT AT THIS LEAD TIME IT'S DIFFICULT TO PIN  
DOWN DETAILS.  
 
THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL  
STORM CHANCES AND DAILY SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES. THE EXACT  
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE GET CLOSER. SOUTHWEST USA  
RIDGING MAY FINALLY BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO A WARMING  
TREND, THOUGH IF TYPICAL MCS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS, TEMPERATURES WOULD  
BE SLOWER TO WARM THAN MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME  
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL  
ALSO BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW. SOME LOW  
LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD IMPACT SOME TERMINALS TONIGHT, BUT HAVE  
LEFT OUT OF MENTION FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.  
 
BOWLAN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 73 89 62 74 / 0 20 60 60  
FSM 71 90 72 82 / 0 10 50 80  
MLC 72 87 71 81 / 0 20 40 80  
BVO 70 89 59 73 / 0 20 60 50  
FYV 68 86 66 79 / 0 20 70 80  
BYV 68 88 65 77 / 0 10 60 80  
MKO 71 87 67 77 / 0 20 60 80  
MIO 71 87 60 72 / 0 30 80 70  
F10 72 86 67 76 / 0 20 50 70  
HHW 69 86 74 84 / 0 10 20 70  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...06  
LONG TERM....06  
AVIATION...04  
 
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