822
FXUS64 KTSA 131131
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
631 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 629 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT ALONG THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDERS.
- LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH
A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE MID MAY NORMALS FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
A SLOW-MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF RECENT ATTEMPTS AT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS,
SIMILAR TO THAT CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED IN THIS EVENING/S HRRR RUNS.
WILL KEEP POPS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVELS IN MOST SPOTS BUT HAVE INCREASED THEM TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF OKLAHOMA GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HRRR DATA. OVERALL, IT SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL.
CLOUD COVER THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AND WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, WITH PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. ABOUT A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REMAINS EXPECTED FROM NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER, GIVEN THE EXPECTED FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH WARM ADVECTION SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARD AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY, SPURRING GOOD MOISTURE
RETURN INTO MAINLY EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA, BUT CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THOSE TO REMAIN WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A MENTION LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY AND WARM DAY. THE NBM
INITIALIZATION FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY IS MORE REASONABLE THAN IN PAST
DAYS, GIVEN THE EXPECTATIONS FOR CLOUD COVER, AND AS SUCH WILL NOT
BE MODIFIED FOR THIS FORECAST. LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO THE WEST,
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE, TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF
MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM LATE THIS WEEK
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT A GIVEN.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE ENERGY
EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT THAT LOOKS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE A FOCUS DURING THE PERIOD GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST TO BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXES.
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 82 58 84 71 / 0 10 0 10
FSM 87 56 84 66 / 0 0 10 0
MLC 87 60 85 72 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 81 52 85 68 / 0 10 0 10
FYV 82 51 79 68 / 0 10 20 10
BYV 79 50 79 66 / 0 10 20 10
MKO 82 57 83 69 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 78 53 80 68 / 0 20 10 10
F10 83 58 84 70 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 87 62 85 68 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05
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