830
FXUS64 KTSA 192258
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
558 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
PASSES.
- NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
ONE MORE HOT AFTERNOON IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 AGAIN FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. LOWER HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE, WHICH WILL AT LEAST KEEP
HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. THE RESULT OF THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LOWER
HUMIDITY, RECORD TEMPERATURES, AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
RAISE FIRE CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
RESIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, THOUGH MORE RECEPTIVE FUELS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LESS RECENT
RAINFALL.
LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS
IT GETS REMOVED FROM THE BOUNDARY AND WILL GENERALLY STALL OUT
NORTHWEST OF I-44 LATE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS
SUNDAY. THE INITIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD POSE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE RISK ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AS
THE FRONT SLOWLY TRACKS INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, EVENTUALLY
GROWING INTO ONE OR MORE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING CLUSTERS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. INITIAL CELLS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, POSING A
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
CLUSTERS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED, A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
THREAT COULD DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITHIN THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE/WAA REGIME THAT
WILL STALL OUT OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
A MUCH MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND FINALLY PUT AN END TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF EXTREME HEAT.
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN TREND SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AFTER MONDAY, AS MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
IN THE VICINITY AND BUILDS MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE
WEEK. A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
TOUGH TAF FORECAST FOR MAINLY THE NE OK TERMINALS, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA TO IMPACT THEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECTATION IS STILL FOR THIS EVENING/S STORMS TO DIMINISH UPON
APPROACHING THE TERMINALS ALTHOUGH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY MOVE
THROUGH. BVO HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF HAVING IMPACTS MAINLY AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW AND BOTH THE PROB30 AND THE TEMPO WILL BE
MAINTAINED, ALBEIT WITH ALTERED TIME FRAMES. PROB30S FOR TWO
POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STORM IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUL/RVS. MLC
MAY SEE STORMS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT THE CHANCE
IS HIGHER AFTER 21/00Z. WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF PROB30 THERE AT THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 76 93 68 83 / 10 60 60 10
FSM 73 100 73 93 / 0 0 40 40
MLC 74 100 70 90 / 0 20 60 30
BVO 69 88 62 82 / 40 60 40 10
FYV 69 97 66 87 / 0 10 50 40
BYV 72 96 69 86 / 0 10 50 50
MKO 72 96 67 87 / 0 30 70 20
MIO 71 90 65 81 / 10 40 60 20
F10 73 96 66 86 / 0 50 70 20
HHW 72 98 71 95 / 0 0 30 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22
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