949
FXUS64 KTSA 231703
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1203 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF HIGH
HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEEK. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
BEING AROUND ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
- DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY,
BRINGING AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE ONLY MINIMAL RAINFALL.
- AREAS OF LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
MUCH OF THE CURRENT NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE CALMER SIDE COMPARED
TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, WITH ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN THE
VICINITY OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LACK
OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
CORRESPONDING RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY, WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON DECK FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID, SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
AFTERNOON INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, ALONG WITH LOW SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES, WILL EXIST, CREATING A GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES CAPTURE EXPECTATIONS
WELL AND WILL BE LEFT ALONE. DEW POINT TRENDS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS POINT, WITH A POCKET OF HIGHER /MID 70S/ VALUES EXPECTED
TO SET UP ACROSS A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND LOWER VALUES ON EITHER SIDE. AN INITIAL STARTING POINT OF THE
SHORT-TERM BLENDED GUIDANCE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A TRANSITION
TO THE NBM GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR THE MOMENT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT INDICES IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40,
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AS FAR NORTH AS CREEK/TULSA/SOUTHERN
ROGERS COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS PORTION
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AREAS IN
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR MORE ACTIVE
THAN THE CURRENT NIGHT. LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
HANG ON DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, BUT MUCH GREATER COVERAGE
REMAINS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED TO THE WEST, WITH
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS BEFORE DAWN MONDAY. SOME
OF THE RECENT CAMS KEEP ISOLATED TO SHOWER POTENTIAL FARTHER WEST
IN THE AREA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NOT ADJUST THE NBM POPS
FOR THIS JUST YET BUT THE TREND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND
POTENTIALLY ADJUSTED FOR. ASSUMING THIS WESTWARD AND DELAYED TREND
DOES NOT OCCUR, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL
PUSH 105 IN SOME LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH ITS PROGRESSION
DETERMINING WHERE THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES SETUP AND HOW COOL
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA GET. WITH CURRENT EXPECTATIONS, AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 WILL AGAIN PUSH 105, WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA /ONLY/ IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. HEAT HEADLINES
WILL BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF THE AREA BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FROM MID TO LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE BASIC WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS SIMILAR, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE WEST
LEADING TO PERIODS OF LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SOME
AND A CORRESPONDING BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
ON AVERAGE SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL, SAVE FOR THE LUCKY LOCATIONS AND
DAYS WITH RAIN AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN ANY REDUCED
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO ERN OK AND NWRN AR OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS AFTER 06Z NERN OK AND NWRN AR
SITES, AND CONTINUED PROB30 GROUPS NWRN AR SITES AFTER 12Z, AS
CONVECTION WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR THAT AREA. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GENERALLY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 96 77 99 74 / 0 30 20 0
FSM 99 76 99 74 / 0 30 30 0
MLC 102 79 104 77 / 0 10 20 20
BVO 94 69 96 70 / 0 40 20 0
FYV 95 71 92 70 / 0 60 40 10
BYV 91 68 90 69 / 20 70 70 10
MKO 97 75 99 73 / 0 30 20 0
MIO 92 69 93 71 / 20 70 30 10
F10 99 76 102 74 / 0 20 20 0
HHW 100 77 103 76 / 0 0 20 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-060-061-
064>067-070-071-073>075-176-272.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...69
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