851
FXUS64 KTSA 090157
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
757 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 756 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WITH
A MOIST AIR-MASS IN PLACE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO FILTER INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY
ALLOW THE HEAVIER FOG TO LIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ELSEWHERE, THE
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(THRU TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, THE SEPARATION BETWEEN SHALLOW COOL AIR AND WARM, HUMID
GULF AIR, STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN TX ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND THEN
ACROSS SOUTHERN AR. THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT RAIN LAST NIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING IS LIFTING INTO WESTERN NE. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE STRATUS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY,
INDICATING SOME MODIFICATION OF THE SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
OCCURRING, THEREBY ERODING THE INVERSION IN SOME PLACES. NOT MUCH
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THRU TONIGHT. WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SW KS CURRENTLY WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
KS AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO MO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN ITS WAKE, ADVECTING COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE WIND
SHIFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG, SOME POSSIBLY DENSE IN SPOTS, AND
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL EXIST. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED STORM WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER FAR SE OK CLOSER TO THE
FRONT.
LACY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
THE NEXT WAVE TO INDUCE LIFT ATOP THE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ONCE
AGAIN, AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS NEXT FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. THUNDER PROBS WERE ADJUSTED
UPWARD ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR BASED ON THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS PRETTY LIMITED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO NEXT WEEK'S POWERFUL STORM
THAT'S EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
ANALYSIS, AS WELL AS THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z GFS/EC/UKMET, HAVE ALL
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR WEATHER IMPACTS IN OUR
AREA WILL BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW TRACKING TO
OUR NORTH. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT, WITH THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT THERE WOULD BE
SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ALSO, SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK INTO
WESTERN AR. COLDER, DRIER AND WINDIER WEATHER WILL EXIST IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THRU THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
LACY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT
BEFORE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR OCCURS AFTER 15-16Z ACROSS NE OK
AND NW AR. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST PAST 18Z
AT KFSM/KMLC, POSSIBLY CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 42 58 45 58 / 0 0 100 30
FSM 53 65 53 62 / 20 0 80 90
MLC 51 61 53 62 / 10 0 90 70
BVO 33 56 43 57 / 0 0 90 20
FYV 47 62 47 60 / 10 0 90 80
BYV 48 60 46 58 / 20 0 80 90
MKO 47 60 50 59 / 0 0 90 60
MIO 40 55 42 56 / 0 0 90 40
F10 46 59 49 60 / 0 0 90 50
HHW 56 65 58 65 / 30 10 70 90
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST FRIDAY FOR OKZ068>072-074.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CST FRIDAY FOR OKZ054>067.
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
019-020-029.
UPDATE...12
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...23
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