719
FXUS64 KTSA 230531
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1131 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020
AVIATION
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH FAR NW AR MAINTAINING A
MORE VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITION. BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS
EASTERN OK WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND PUSH EAST OF THE AR
TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. IFR TO POSSIBLY BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
FLIGHT LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT AREA OF PRECIP SPREADS BACK
INTO NE OK / FAR NW AR BY LATE THURS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 838 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020/
.UPDATE
DISCUSSION...
CONTINUING TO HAVE ISSUES WITH FROZEN PRECIPITATION,
MAINLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET, ACROSS SOME OF THE
COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
WITH THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUING THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY, WILL KEEP
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 12Z FOR OUR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS COUNTIES EXCEPT BENTON AND SEBASTIAN. WILL CANCEL
THE REMAINING OKLAHOMA COUNTIES WITH THIS UPDATE AS
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING AS RAIN.
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE LATER
TONIGHT BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. SOME
AREAS MY SEE DENSE FOG BUT DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
ONGOING IFR TO PERIODIC LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS FAR NW AR WHERE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE. LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A GRADUAL FOCUS EASTWARD. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT THROUGH E OK ON PERIPHERY OF LOWER CLOUD
DECK AND FCST WILL BEGIN TREND THIS DIRECTION. THURS AFTERNOON
SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST WED JAN 22 2020/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TRAVEL IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM
FROM LIGHT WINTRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LIFT IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL OK IS
PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS, THUS A LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS MOST
LIKELY. HOWEVER, IN THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY AND IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF W AR AND SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY OK, TEMPS
CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR FREEZING. THUS A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE OR SLEET IS POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENING IN THESE
LOCATIONS. TRAVEL DOWN THRU THE BOSTON MOUNTAINS ON ROADWAYS WITH
LONG BRIDGES SUCH AS I-49 WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES. THUS, A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER MUCH OF NW AR AND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THRU MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY ENDING THE TRAVEL
ISSUES.
THE LATEST HI-RES DATA SUGGESTS A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AN ADVANCING WIND SHIFT/FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER
WITH SOME AIRMASS IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. ONCE
THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CLEARS THE AREA, THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTION UNTIL WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER MO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CURRENT THOUGHT IS INITIAL PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERS BUT A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH, WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NEAR THE KS AND MO BORDERS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS, QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BY TUESDAY. IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TIME TO DRAW ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
NORTHWARD IN TIME TO PRODUCE A SEVERE THREAT, BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL OF SOME WINTER WEATHER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT DEPARTS. DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING
DAYS.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 39 36 47 32 / MMM 70 20 20
FSM 35 34 43 33 / MMM 80 40 20
MLC 39 36 48 32 / MMM 70 10 0
BVO 38 35 46 30 / MMM 50 20 20
FYV 36 36 40 30 / MMM 80 40 40
BYV 35 32 40 31 / MMM 80 50 50
MKO 37 34 46 31 / MMM 70 10 10
MIO 37 34 42 30 / MMM 70 40 50
F10 39 36 47 32 / MMM 70 0 10
HHW 38 36 48 34 / MMM 100 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ002-010-
011-019-020.
AVIATION.....07
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