116
FXUS64 KTSA 221128
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ZONE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION
/ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN THE
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. IN ADDITION,
A NARROW BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS THIS MORNING
BEFORE ACTIVITY SLOWLY WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING
CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, MAINLY NORTH OF I-44.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH DURING THE DAY
AND WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING, MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS COMPACT UPPER
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH CONVECTION SWEEPING INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, INCLUDING
AT LEAST A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
WITH A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE
ALREADY SEEN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD ALSO BE SEVERE WITH A CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF FRONT.
A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. A SLOW WARMING TREND
IS FORECAST BY FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE CONUS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2023
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN OK AT PRESENT, WILL TEND TO SHIFT A LITTLE EAST WITH TIME
THROUGH THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WITHIN THIS AREA WILL OCCASIONALLY
DROP INTO THE MVFR AND EVEN IFR CATEGORIES AS STRONGER CELLS
PASS. AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH DECREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND
SOME SFC WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN OK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 82 70 87 69 / 80 10 40 80
FSM 85 69 90 70 / 70 20 30 90
MLC 84 70 90 70 / 80 10 40 80
BVO 82 66 87 65 / 70 10 40 80
FYV 81 65 86 65 / 70 20 30 90
BYV 81 65 84 64 / 50 20 30 90
MKO 79 67 87 67 / 80 10 40 90
MIO 80 67 86 65 / 70 20 40 90
F10 80 67 88 67 / 80 10 40 80
HHW 83 69 92 70 / 80 10 30 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14
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