242  
FXUS64 KTSA 161735  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025  
 
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH  
LOW TO MEDIUM /10-40 PERCENT/ SHOWER/STORM CHANCES EACH  
AFTERNOON.  
 
- WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END  
OF THE WEEK BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY  
COOLER TEMPERATURES  
 
- AT LEAST LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND  
AS VARIOUS DISTURBANCES MOVE NEARBY THE LOCAL REGION.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025  
 
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE IS FORECAST  
ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS, BUT THE WHOLE AREA WILL SEE CHANCES FOR  
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. SEVERE  
CHANCES REMAIN LOW, BUT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR,  
WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPERATURES  
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH HIGHS  
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION. PERSISTENCE  
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH DIMINISHING RAIN  
CHANCES AFTER SUNSET AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO  
LOWER 70S.  
 
BOWLAN  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025  
 
A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER  
LOW BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND  
BECOME "CUTOFF" FROM THE MAIN JET ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH IN  
CANADA. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS AND FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY LATE  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE PARENT UPPER  
LOW. TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR ON  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL  
DAYS, WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN CHANCES NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER AS  
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.  
 
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM NORTH TO  
SOUTH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE  
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE  
BECOMES MORE FOCUSED OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE  
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL BE  
NOTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID  
80S DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE WHERE RAIN  
LINGERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE WEAK FRONT/OUTFLOW WILL  
GRADUALLY WASH OUT/LOSE DEFINITION BY FRIDAY, THOUGH CONTINUED  
CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL HELP KEEP  
TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID  
SEPTEMBER.  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGHING REMAINS IN THE VICINITY AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS  
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT WON'T RAIN AT ALL  
TIMES, BUT AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE  
FORECAST EVERYDAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO  
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A MORE NOTABLE STORM SYSTEM AND POTENTIALLY  
STRONGER COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT TIMING  
AND EVOLUTION REMAIN IN FLUX AT THIS RANGE.  
 
BOWLAN  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025  
 
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST AGAIN THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THE CWA, WITH THE GREATER  
POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUS, WILL CONTINUE WITH  
PROB30 GROUPS FOR TIMING FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES AND HOLD  
OFF ON MENTIONING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA TAF SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY  
OF COVERAGE IMPACTING ANY ONE TERMINAL. GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG  
WINDS AND A BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN  
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER CHANCES JUST OUTSIDE THIS  
PERIOD. CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY  
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS THIS  
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY  
LOOKS TO AGAIN DEVELOP FOR KFYV AND KBVO, AND HAVE ADDED TEMPO  
GROUPS FOR TIMING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE  
PERIOD.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
TUL 69 92 69 84 / 20 20 30 50  
FSM 70 94 69 90 / 20 20 10 30  
MLC 67 93 68 89 / 20 20 10 50  
BVO 64 90 65 84 / 20 20 40 60  
FYV 64 91 64 87 / 20 20 10 40  
BYV 65 91 65 87 / 20 20 10 40  
MKO 67 92 68 87 / 20 20 20 40  
MIO 66 91 66 84 / 20 20 30 50  
F10 67 92 67 87 / 20 20 20 50  
HHW 68 91 68 90 / 20 20 10 30  
 
 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...04  
LONG TERM....04  
AVIATION...20  
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