954
FXUS64 KTSA 061738
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1238 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
- SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LIMITED RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS, DAMAGING WIND BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING
WINDS. ONCE THE STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ONLY
LOW...BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS...CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWER OR STORM EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME PLACES, ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
ASIDE FROM ANY IMPACTS RELATED TO THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. GREATEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EXIST ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR THROUGH 02Z. POTENTIAL
WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE PROB30 GROUP AT KFSM, BUT TOO LOW
FOR ALL OTHER SITES. AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED ELSEWHERE. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SUDDEN STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS. CONVECTION WILL TREND DOWN
THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING/MOVING OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 92 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 72 93 73 96 / 20 10 0 10
MLC 70 93 71 95 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 66 91 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 66 90 66 92 / 10 10 0 10
BYV 66 88 67 91 / 10 10 0 10
MKO 70 92 71 95 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 68 90 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
F10 69 91 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 71 92 72 93 / 20 10 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43
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