848
FXUS64 KTSA 030516
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
- LOWER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE RETURN TO MAINTAIN
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS E OK AND NW AR IS PRIMARILY BEING AIDED
BY THE SLOW MOVING REMNANT MCV THAT IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
E OK. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS ATTEMPTING TO ADVECTION WESTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL REGION BUT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS. WHILE THE BULK OF
GUIDANCE FOCUSES HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND OVERALL COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON
BY AGAIN TREND HIGHER. SLOW STORM MOTIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND THIS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN GIVEN THE WEAK
STEERING FLOW.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN CHANCES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN RETURNS TO PERSISTENT SUBTLE FORCING
WITHIN A PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE. MID LEVEL TROUGH MAKES SLOW
PROGRESS ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH DRAWING AN UPPER LOW NORTHWARD ACROSS N
MEXICO AND INTO FAR W TX BY SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THE SLOW MOVING
TROUGH PASSAGE WILL FOSTER INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION COUPLED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE OVERALL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR
ALL TERMINALS, BUT ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ANY
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND
LIGHTNING. THESE STORMS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS, BUT IN GENERAL CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT. A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAFS AS THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
BE SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 85 68 85 70 / 20 10 30 30
FSM 86 68 87 69 / 0 0 40 10
MLC 88 69 86 71 / 20 10 40 20
BVO 84 64 85 68 / 20 10 30 30
FYV 84 63 84 68 / 0 0 30 10
BYV 80 61 82 65 / 0 0 20 10
MKO 85 67 85 69 / 20 10 30 20
MIO 84 65 85 68 / 10 0 30 20
F10 85 67 84 68 / 20 10 30 20
HHW 86 70 83 70 / 20 10 50 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06
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