426  
FXUS64 KTSA 190811  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
311 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2024  
 
COLD START AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF  
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BELOW FREEZING. BIG WARM  
UP HOWEVER EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING AT  
15 TO 25 MPH. WITH THE WARM CONDITIONS, AT LEAST LIMITED FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING  
TO AROUND 25 PERCENT, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2024  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA  
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,  
COUPLED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA  
DURING THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFT EAST THROUGH  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS.  
 
GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH  
MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION COMPARED  
TO THE SLOWER/WEAKER EC SOLUTION. STILL EXPECT RELATIVELY MILD  
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN  
THE UPPER 60S. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY  
STALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY BE  
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY BEHIND FRONT.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER WAA/  
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING  
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MAIN UPPER WAVE PROGGED TO EJECT  
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME  
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING THE  
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. COULD ALSO SEE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE  
THREAT AROUND THIS TIME, HOWEVER THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON EVENTUAL  
TIMING/EVOLUTION OF STORM SYSTEM, WHICH OBVIOUSLY REMAINS SOMEWHAT  
UNCERTAIN THIS FAR INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2024  
 
VFR TAF ELEMENTS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH  
THE VALID PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 74 46 75 50 / 0 0 30 60  
FSM 68 44 75 50 / 0 0 10 40  
MLC 69 46 73 52 / 0 0 10 60  
BVO 76 41 73 44 / 0 0 30 50  
FYV 67 43 74 47 / 0 0 20 40  
BYV 65 45 72 46 / 0 0 20 30  
MKO 69 45 73 51 / 0 0 20 60  
MIO 71 43 71 46 / 0 0 20 40  
F10 71 46 73 51 / 0 0 20 60  
HHW 65 42 68 50 / 0 0 0 50  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...12  
LONG TERM....12  
AVIATION...23  
 
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