739
FXUS64 KTSA 271753
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1253 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- RAINS GRADUALLY END BY SUNDAY EVENING. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ON
MONDAY BUT EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY SE OK.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. EXPECT SEVERAL PERIODS
OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. SOME SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR E OK AND NW
AR IS IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD. CORRESPONDING ZONE OF LOW LEVEL UPGLIDE
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WANE. THE RESULTANT COLD POOL SFC BOUNDARY
WILL ARC ACROSS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL
RESIDE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SIMILAR PATTERN OF STRENGTHENING UPGLIDE
OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS PRIMARILY ACROSS SE OK AND PERSIST
INTO THE DAY MONDAY. GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH MUCH
LESS COVERAGE THAN THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BUT REMAIN LOW. LESSER CLOUD COVER AND
WARMING PROFILES WILL LEAD TO MOST LOCATIONS BEING NOTICEABLY
WARMER ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND BREEZY AS THE MID WEEK STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE PLAINS. A CORRIDOR OF WIDESPREAD RAINS
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY
EASTWARD INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING FOR A RENEWED CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME FROM TROPICAL REMNANT OF POLLO WILL BE
INGESTED INTO THIS STORM SYSTEM AND EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL HOWEVER THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE DEEP MOIST
PROFILES. THESE DETAILS WILL IMPACT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
AND WILL ALSO BE REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS.
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO PASS ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS NOT YET
BECOME CONSISTENT WITH WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS STILL BEING SHOWN.
THE FORECAST WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN INTO NEXT WEEKEND
LARGELY A REFLECTION OF THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY. ONCE THE UPPER
TROUGH DOES PASS A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS LIKELY OVERSPREADS THE
REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON, MOVING OUT OF NW AR SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. OUTSIDE OF SOME VSBY REDUCTION IN HEAVIER SHOWERS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS SE OK, BUT
CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT. SOME VERY PATCHY
FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS NW AR, BUT WILL ALSO LEAVE
OUT OF MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 66 85 68 89 / 20 10 0 10
FSM 64 88 66 92 / 10 10 0 0
MLC 65 90 67 93 / 30 30 0 0
BVO 61 84 63 87 / 20 10 0 10
FYV 61 83 60 87 / 10 10 0 0
BYV 61 82 59 86 / 10 10 0 0
MKO 64 86 66 90 / 20 20 0 10
MIO 64 81 65 86 / 10 10 0 10
F10 65 87 67 90 / 20 20 0 10
HHW 66 89 67 93 / 30 30 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
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