805
FXUS64 KTSA 270404
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1004 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 957 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WITH ALL-TIME DECEMBER RECORD HIGHS
ALSO POSSIBLE.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS AS WELL. MUCH COLDER TEMPS, MORE TYPICAL OF
LATE DECEMBER, CAN BE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
- PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FALLING PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND NOT MUCH LEFT OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED
IN FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING. THE UNSHELTERED AREAS WILL
PROBABLY SEE WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, BUT
REMAIN LIGHT. THE SHELTERED AREAS, ESPECIALLY VALLEYS, OF NW AR
AND SE OK WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THERE'S AN INCLINATION TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE
LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY, AS THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN THE HRRR AND
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THERE THE PAST TWO NIGHTS. THE MAIN CHANGE
TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INSERT FOG MENTION, FOLLOWING THE REASONING
ABOVE.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED NEAR A LINE FROM NEAR GROVE TO
OKEMAH IN EASTERN OK SEPARATING A RELATIVELY DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS FROM THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING WILL RESULT OVER NORTHEAST OK, WHILE RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL
ALSO BE A BIT COOLER ON THOSE AREAS, WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND WASHES OUT SATURDAY RESULTING IN
ONE FINAL RECORD WARM AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SHOT AT ALL-TIME DECEMBER
HIGHS. THIS MAY HOWEVER BE OFFSET BY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BUT, A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHEAST OK AND
RESULT IN A MAJOR CHANGE TO THE RECENT WARM SPELL. FORECAST TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST, MOVING TO
NEAR I -44 EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA
BY EVENING. TEMPERATUES WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OK EXPERIENCING HIGH TEMPS EARLY FOLLOWED BY STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND DECIDEDLY COLDER CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER A
SHORT TIME. AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS,
VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD COOL SUFFICIENTLY FOR AT LEAST
MODEST INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT, WITH A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORCED ALONG THE FRONT. SEASONABLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH ORGANIZATION FOR A
STRONG STORM OR TWO, AND A FEW AREAS WILL AT LEAST PICK UP A WETTING
RAINFALL. THE PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THIS MAY KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING FAR
ENOUGH BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP, BUT SHOULD ALSO
NOTE THAT BEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED EAST BY THEN. AS
SUCH, ANY WINTRY PRECIP AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT AND
LARGELY UN-IMNPACTFUL.
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY, STARTING IN THE 20S MOST
PLACES WITH LINGERING NORTH WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE ROUGHLY 35-40
DEGREES COLDER COMPARED TO THIS RECENT STRETCH WITH CONTINUED
LIGHTER NORTH WINDS. AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN MOST OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND BACK AND REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY IS PROBABLY GOING TO
HAPPEN. SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NW AR DOWN INTO SE OK COULD
FOG UP ALSO, THOUGH PROBABLY MORE PATCHY AND NOT AS DENSE. IN
THESE AREAS, CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
PERSISTENCE SUGGEST CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE. FOLLOWED 00Z
FORECAST OF TEMPO LIFR AT KFSM AND INSERTED LIGHT MVFR FOG MENTION
AT THE OTHER NW AR SITES. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY MOST PLACES, BACKING OFF BY EVENING. LLWS
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT NE OK AND NW AR SITES TOMORROW EVENING AS
LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 51 79 64 67 / 0 0 10 20
FSM 53 80 63 73 / 0 0 10 30
MLC 55 81 65 70 / 0 0 0 30
BVO 44 77 57 64 / 0 0 10 20
FYV 53 78 63 67 / 0 0 10 30
BYV 54 77 65 69 / 0 0 10 40
MKO 51 79 65 68 / 0 0 10 20
MIO 51 75 63 66 / 0 0 10 30
F10 51 81 65 69 / 0 0 0 20
HHW 56 79 63 72 / 0 0 0 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page