647
FXUS64 KTSA 081034
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 533 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
- COOL MORNING LOWS, WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
- RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOW RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD RETURN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG/NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW FOR A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY/FOG DEVELOPMENT AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE
SAME TIME, 850-MB TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 16-19C RANGE WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S INTO THE WEEKEND FOR THE CWA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS PROGGED TO GET A PUSH
NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY AS NOW HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVES ONSHORE.
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP ISAIAS EAST OF THE CWA,
THOUGH EASTERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED CLOUD COVER COULD MOVE THROUGH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION, AN ADDITIONAL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THESE CONDITIONS COULD CREATE LIMITED AREAS OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WHERE THE HIGHER
WIND GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MERGES WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM RACHEL. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION, AND THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE CWA. DETAILS WITH THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND UPDATED AS IT APPROACHES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG BRIEFLY AT KFYV THIS MORNING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 61 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 91 59 92 61 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 91 57 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 91 57 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 90 57 90 57 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 89 59 90 59 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 90 61 90 61 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 89 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
F10 90 61 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 90 61 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30
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