954
FXUS64 KTSA 082242
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
542 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 539 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- HEADLINE-WORTHY HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE WORSENING DROUGHT.
- RAIN/STORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK
AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STILL MONITORING FOR A FEW POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE CURRENT HEAT HEADLINES
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED UNDERNEATH CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S IN SPOTS.
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ELONGATE AND FLATTEN OUT SOME
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
AS A SYNOPTIC TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THE TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, ARRIVING ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT, EXCEPTIONALLY HOT AND HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN, WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LIKELY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE EVEN LESS ON WEDNESDAY, A FEW
SPOTTY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR WEDNESDAY, FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM, WITH THE SAME CONFIGURATION
AS TODAY'S HEAT HEADLINES.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ARRIVE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST OK, AND EVENTUALLY INTO FAR NORTHWEST
AR BY THURSDAY MORNING. A LIMITED SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL EXIST
NEAR THE FRONT, AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL LIE
NORTH OF I-44, WHERE AN UNSTABLE, HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS MAY HELP
CAUSE STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH MORE ROBUST STORMS. AS THE SUN SETS AND
THE BOUNDARY LAYER NOCTURNALLY STABILIZES, THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER BY MID-LATE EVENING WEDNESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND
STALL IN THE VICINITY OR JUST SOUTH OF I-40 BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE DAYTIME THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE AREA AND THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
WILL FIGHT HARD TO GET OUT OF THE 80S. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSEVERE, THOUGH
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID-UPPER 90S, AND NOT REACH TRIPLE DIGITS. IT IS POSSIBLE
LOW-END HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BRIEFLY BE MET FOR A FEW AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING AND PERHAPS THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LIFTS
OUT OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
RELATIVELY LIGHT OVERALL.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY, WITH DISAGREEMENTS ON TIMING AND HOW FAR
SOUTH IT IS ABLE TO DRIFT. THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED IN
ITS VICINITY, AND THEREFORE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED NORTH OF I-40
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE FRONT AND WEAKER RIDGING ALOFT,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM-LONG RANGE NPW MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS
BEYOND SUNDAY. BUT CONSENSUS WITH THEM SEEMS TO INDICATE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA BEYOND THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW
EXCEPT FOR FSM. A VERY LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS PRIOR TO
10/00Z EXISTS MAINLY AT BVO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN IMPACTS HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER 10/00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 81 103 73 87 / 0 0 70 80
FSM 77 104 77 97 / 0 10 10 40
MLC 78 102 76 96 / 0 10 10 60
BVO 75 103 67 87 / 0 10 90 70
FYV 75 102 72 91 / 0 10 20 60
BYV 76 100 73 88 / 0 20 30 70
MKO 76 101 73 90 / 0 0 30 70
MIO 77 101 71 85 / 0 10 80 80
F10 77 102 73 91 / 0 0 30 80
HHW 75 99 75 96 / 0 10 0 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-055>059-
063>065-068-069-073-075-154-172-254-276-354-376.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>059-063>065-068-069-073-075-154-172-254-276-354-376.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ060>062-
066-067-070-071-074-176-272.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
OKZ060>062-066-067-070-071-074-176-272.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
119-120-229.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-119-120-229.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-
220.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ129-
219-220.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22
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