673  
FXUS64 KTSA 231133  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
633 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.  
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE LARGELY STAYED NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES  
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH KBVO, KXNA, AND KROG  
OVERNIGHT. THE NEAR TERM OUTLOOK AND TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT  
THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR NE OK TAF SITES WITH SOME  
UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR FAR NW AR TAF SITES. THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS  
AND STORMS THAT IS ONGOING WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE SE WITH TIME  
POSSIBLY CLIPPING KROG AND KXNA. AS A RESULT, OPTED TO KEEP  
-SHRA IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS CERTAINLY  
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  
 
THIS CLUSTER WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MORNING LEADING TO  
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 20KTS  
AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE. WINDS JUST  
OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE VERY WINDY AS WELL BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS  
FROM THE SW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT, OPTED  
TO INCLUDE A WS GROUP FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOME  
SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR OUR NE OK TAF SITES EARLY  
TOMORROW MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. A  
PROB30 WAS INTRODUCED FOR NOW AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND COVERAGE  
OF THESE SHOWERS (POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.  
 
SNIDER  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, EXTENDING NORTH INTO  
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTS, A FEW  
STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS FAR NE OK UNTIL  
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE JET BEGINS TO WEAKEN. LATEST TRENDS,  
INCLUDING 06Z HRRR SUGGEST BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY  
STAY FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SE KS/SW MO.  
 
OTHERWISE, UNSEASONABLY WARM/BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY,  
CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. A STRONG  
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND  
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING INTO  
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODERATE  
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL,  
DAMAGING WINDS, INCLUDING A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED  
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED  
THAT THE STRONGER DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE  
LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF AREA DURING THIS TIME. OBVIOUSLY THERE  
WILL BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REGARDLESS, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE  
ACTUAL SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE IS STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN  
QUESTION.  
 
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH UPPER  
LOW MID WEEK, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  
ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND MORE CUT OFF WITH LOW, WHICH WOULD ALLOW  
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COOL/RAINY  
CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 85 70 82 52 / 20 20 60 10  
FSM 85 67 83 56 / 10 10 60 60  
MLC 84 68 82 54 / 0 10 40 20  
BVO 84 67 81 47 / 30 20 30 0  
FYV 80 64 79 47 / 20 10 60 60  
BYV 77 66 78 49 / 40 10 70 60  
MKO 82 67 80 52 / 10 10 60 20  
MIO 78 66 78 47 / 40 20 60 20  
F10 84 66 82 52 / 10 10 40 10  
HHW 82 66 82 60 / 0 10 30 40  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION.....21  
 
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