427
FXUS64 KTSA 201720
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1120 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1114 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SEVERE CHANCES LOW, LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
- COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL DROP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKS OVER THE REGION. HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY SET UP
FROM I-44 SOUTH, WITH LESS RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN MORE URBAN OR LOW LYING AREAS. A LACK OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. PORTIONS
OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD DESTABILIZE SOME BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FINAL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST, AND LOCALLY
RAISE SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WITH ANY MORE ROBUST STORM THAT CAN
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW AT THIS POINT THOUGH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER STREAMING OVER THE REGION. RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY TODAY, GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS,
SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST WITH THE EXITING WAVE. A COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE SETTLING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TOMORROW COULD REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE THE FRONT WILL
BE LATER TO ARRIVE. CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO A PLEASANT AFTERNOON
FOR MOST ON FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. LATEST TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM. THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO TRENDING TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH,
LIMITING MORE OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAT HAS BEEN NOTED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STILL WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO MOVES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVERALL, THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS RATHER LIMITED BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY, ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN THE FORECAST.
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO OR POSSIBLY
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING AFTER MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MUCH OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING, WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVERALL
CONTINUING TO DETERIORATE. MVFR CEILINGS BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOSTLY PREVAIL WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR DEVELOPING IN MAY AREAS
TONIGHT. OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN OK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 71 47 62 / 70 10 0 0
FSM 62 75 51 67 / 80 20 0 0
MLC 60 74 48 65 / 80 10 0 0
BVO 55 69 43 60 / 70 10 0 0
FYV 59 70 47 63 / 90 20 10 0
BYV 59 70 49 62 / 90 30 10 0
MKO 60 72 48 63 / 70 10 0 0
MIO 60 70 47 60 / 80 20 10 0
F10 58 73 47 63 / 70 10 0 0
HHW 61 74 49 68 / 80 20 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14
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