203
FXUS64 KTSA 111645
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1142 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE GREATEST
STORM COVERAGE. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN AREAS
EXPERIENCING MULTIPLE STORMS, WITH SOME SEEING SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN. FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH THE STORMS.
THE RAIN POTENTIAL WILL AGGRAVATE THE FLOOD RISK NEAR AREA
CREEKS AND RIVERS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN CENTRAL KS
AS CIN CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING.
VERY LITTLE CHANCE ANY OF THIS WILL EXPAND MUCH FATHER SOUTH AND
THIS CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY RECENT CAMS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTH THURSDAY WITH
A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS RESIDING OVER EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITHIN THE CORRIDOR
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR I-44 AND A LITTLE SOUTH, POTENTIALLY
WITH HI VALUES TOUCHING RIGHT AROUND 105 GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEW
POINTS. PRESENT HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED INTO THIS AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. PORTIONS OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY MAY ALSO BE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.
WITH WEAKENING INHIBITION THURSDAY AFTERNOON, FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AROUND 21Z OR
SLIGHTLY BEFORE. INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH
ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION, AND A WIND AND HAIL
THREAT WITH MORE ORGANIZED CELLS. CORRIDOR OF NEAR 2 INCH PWATS WILL
ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT ADVANCES, WITH WANING SEVERE THREAT
DURING THAT TIME. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE AN OVERALL DECREASE FRIDAY.
THE FRONT WASHES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A QUICK RETURN
OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES SATURDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS IT MOVES OUT OF KANSAS, WITH POTENTIAL UPTICK IN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THIS WILL ALSO RAISE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY ENDING UP WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
LOW CEILINGS IN THE 2.5-5 KFT RANGE WILL PERSIST FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS WILL
CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OK THIS EVENING,
WITH WINDS REVERSING TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS BEHIND THE MAIN LAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, AND OUT OF THE AREA BY DAWN. HOWEVER, IT
WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH, SO KFSM AND KMLC WILL
LIKELY SEE LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH
CEILINGS DOWN TO 1.5-2.5 KFT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT EASTERLY
BY THIS POINT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 94 68 85 74 / 60 70 10 10
FSM 93 74 88 75 / 0 90 40 10
MLC 93 73 88 76 / 0 100 50 10
BVO 95 63 84 71 / 60 30 10 30
FYV 90 68 86 72 / 0 90 20 30
BYV 90 66 83 69 / 0 100 10 40
MKO 91 69 85 73 / 10 90 30 10
MIO 91 63 84 70 / 80 70 0 40
F10 92 68 85 73 / 10 90 40 10
HHW 92 75 87 75 / 0 70 70 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055>067-354.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...06
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