835
FXUS64 KTSA 130514
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
- OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
NEAR PERSISTENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM. 00Z
KOUN SOUNDING SAMPLED 24HR CHANGE OF SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN
THE 700-600MB LAYER MARKING THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTER VERIFYING GUIDANCE TRENDS. EXPECT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY WITH DEWPOINT TRENDS THE
MORE UNCERTAIN COMPONENT OF THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES.
REGARDLESS THE EXACT DETAILS, THE ONGOING HIGH STRESS CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL LOCALLY
WORSEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FINE FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION WITH THE
CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR ALIGNING TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME AND HIGH HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONT TO ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS PRESENT IN SOME GUIDANCE, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN BOTH THE FRONT ARRIVAL AND ANY POTENTIAL
COOLING. SHOULD THE BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE REGION THEN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE WARRANTED. FINGERS CROSSED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5-15 KTS OVERNIGHT, AND 7-15 KTS DURING
THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR,
EXCEPT FOR SOME FEW-SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 104 84 104 82 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 103 80 104 75 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 102 80 102 79 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 105 80 104 78 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 101 78 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 100 79 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 102 78 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 102 81 102 78 / 0 0 0 0
F10 104 79 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 99 78 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
120-129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06
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