333
FXUS64 KTSA 212336
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
536 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
- MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES, BUT
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW IS SHIFTING TO EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH ADVANCES TO THE EAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN FOR MOST AREAS, STARTING IN SOUTHEAST OK. THE
COMBINATION OF BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW
FOR WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH UPPER 30S NEAR THE KS BORDER AND
40S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING, WITH LOW CLOUDS
CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. CAM GUIDANCE HAS MADE
THE FORECAST MURKIER THAN IT APPEARED YESTERDAY, WITH MORE OF A
SIGNAL IN SOME CAMS TO HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THIS IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY, AND IF IT OCCURRED TEMPERATURES
COULD END UP QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST, BUT FOR NOW THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TOWARDS A MILD AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR OKLAHOMA, AND NEAR 60 F IN NORTHWEST AR.
LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHEAST OK
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AR. WITH DEW POINTS CLOSE TO 60 F BY THIS
POINT, SOME MINOR LIFT MAY WRING OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIKE MONDAY, SOME
GUIDANCE WANTS TO HOLD ONTO CLOUDS TUESDAY WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE NAM KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 50S WHILE MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE SAYS 70S ARE LIKELY WITH CLEARER SKIES AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. FOR NOW, STILL LEANED THE FORECAST HEAVILY TOWARDS
THAT OUTCOME.
REGARDLESS OF HOW QUICKLY SURFACE WARMTH BUILDS IN, UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ANOMALOUSLY WARM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
500 HPA HEIGHTS AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THE EPS
CLIMATOLOGY FOR TUESDAY TO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY, AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON CHRISTMAS
MORNING. MORNING LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH LOWS ON
CHRISTMAS MORNING BEING IN THE LOW 60S. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
KEEPS SIMILAR WARMTH GOING ON FRIDAY AS WELL BEFORE SOMEWHAT COOLER
CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND. IT'S WORTH MENTIONING THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH ENOUGH HUMIDITY TO AT LEAST NOTICE IT (DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW 60S). SEVERAL RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH LOWS
(WARMEST LOW ON RECORD) ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME MONTHLY RECORDS ALSO
IN JEOPARDY. CONSIDERING THE WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT TIMES, BUT
THE ELEVATED RH WILL LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SPLIT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, BUT OTHER GUIDANCE BRINGS A BOUNDARY
INTO THE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES (STILL ABOVE NORMAL) AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CONTINUED TO BLEND THESE TWO OUTCOMES FOR
THE EXTENDED AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION EARLY EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW END VFR BECOMING MVFR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SCATTERING MONDAY AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST, THOUGH SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CAN BE BULLISH ON
HOW QUICKLY THESE CLOUDS CAN MOVE OUT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP BROKEN
MVFR/LOW END VFR OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITE THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AND ADD A MENTION OF SCATTERED CLOUD DECKS FOR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OUT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IF CLOUDS
CAN BREAK UP, WINDS GUSTS OF 15-20KT COULD DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 43 65 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 42 65 52 75 / 0 0 10 0
MLC 46 67 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 39 65 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 40 61 52 71 / 0 0 10 0
BYV 38 63 51 71 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 43 65 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 40 62 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
F10 44 66 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 47 67 56 75 / 0 0 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20
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