534
FXUS64 KTSA 131127
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- NEAR RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY.
- MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND PLEASANT WEATHER BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY AS A CUT-OFF LOW AND TROUGHING PATTERN
DEEPENS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR,
MAINTAINING AN ACTIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE WESTERN GULF.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS ALREADY ABNORMALLY ELEVATED, WITH PWATS
TRENDING TO NEAR-RECORD LEVELS FOR MID-OCTOBER (1.6 TO 1.8+
INCHES, WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY).
WEAK EMBEDDED LEAD DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THIS RICH MOISTURE FIELD TO GENERATE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LATEST HREF FOCUSES BEST CHANCES (20-30%) OCCURRING
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR.
ASSUMING CONVECTION CAN INITIATE, QPF AMOUNTS AND WEATHER IMPACTS
WILL STAY MINIMAL. THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY, THOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY. RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON TUESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A FEW OF THE WARMER-PRONE AREAS
OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY APPROACH 95 DEGREES.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC FORCING WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS OVER
THE ROCKIES AND GRADUALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL HELP PUSH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE OK/KS BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE
LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST REGION. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE LOW, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA STARTING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON (OR EARLY
EVENING) AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH ECMWF ENS AND NAEFS ENS SHOW EXTREME MOISTURE FLUX,
PRODUCING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH IVT VALUES EXCEEDING 500-750 KG/M/S AND
PWATS NEAR OR AT RECORD VALUES ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS INTENSE MOISTURE TRANSPORT,
COUPLED WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT PRONOUNCED, HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SPIKE INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
BULK WIND SHEAR IN PLACE, A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT DURING THE
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, MOSTLY FOCUSED NEAR AND NORTH OF I-40.
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH SEVERE STORMS.
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT HIGH RAINFALL PROBABILITIES (70-90% POPS), BUT HAVE
TRENDED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE. CONSENSUS IN MODEL DATA STILL SHOW THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION AND HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR
AND NORTH OF I-44 BASICALLY FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL, UPDATED STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 5 INCHES, ARE
ANTICIPATED, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-44 ARE EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
INCH. GIVEN THE OVERALL DECREASE IN RAINFALL TOTALS, WILL OPT NOT
TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME, THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
STILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AT TIMES. AN IMPROMPTU FLOOD WATCH MAY
STILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK IF QPF
VALUES TREND HIGHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL FLUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL YIELD A FAIRLY PLEASANT AUTUMN
AIRMASS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TREND WARMER AND POSSIBLY BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE BY MONDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND DAYTIME HIGHS TRENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTEND ACROSS SE OK AND WESTERN AR AND MAY
BRIEFLY EXPAND INTO NE OK THROUGH THE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY VARY BETWEEN FLIGHT LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH A TREND
TOWARD ALL VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING
WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY IMPACT TERMINALS
ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 93 73 82 68 / 0 40 90 80
FSM 93 75 90 70 / 10 10 60 30
MLC 89 75 89 68 / 10 10 60 40
BVO 93 68 79 63 / 0 60 90 100
FYV 87 70 83 65 / 10 20 80 30
BYV 90 73 82 69 / 10 20 80 30
MKO 90 73 85 68 / 10 20 80 50
MIO 91 70 79 66 / 0 60 80 90
F10 90 73 85 68 / 10 20 80 70
HHW 90 74 91 68 / 10 10 30 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07
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