869
FXUS64 KTSA 172323
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
523 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- COLD AND BLUSTERY THIS AFTERNOON, NW WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH.
- DESPITE COLDER TEMPERATURES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
HEIGHTENED THIS AFTERNOON DUE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG
WINDS.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH TUESDAY, LOW
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTH BY MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
A RATHER COLD AND BLUSTERY AFTERNOON IS IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA
AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 20S ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE SOME MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CONTINUES. HOWEVER, VERY DRY AIR IN THE
SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO EVAPORATION OF ANY
PRECIPITATION BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE. A STEADY STREAM OF
CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ALONG THE RED RIVER, AND HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS TO REFLECT THIS TREND IN THOSE AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING, ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND
SKIES TO CLEAR. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
COLD NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS FORECAST. THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS, ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WHERE WINDS REMAIN CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
QUICKLY DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE REGION, WITH AT LEAST LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE THE
NIGHT ENDS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTENSIFY
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS COULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
NOT BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY AND EVEN RISING SOME TOWARD SUNRISE
SUNDAY.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY PICK UP DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A VERY COLD START, TEMPS SHOULD
QUICKLY REBOUND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. HIGHS LOOK TO GET BACK UP NEAR 50 BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK
WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR MONDAY AS PLACES ACROSS THE NORTH
COULD STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY OWING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER AS WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S WILL BE COMMON. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY
AGAIN, THOUGH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE COULD GENERATE SOME FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.
THE GENERAL PROGRESSIVE SURFACE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO SURGE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, BUT WILL MOSTLY BE SHUNTED
EASTWARD BEFORE IT CAN ARRIVE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, FAR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
ZONAL TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, WITH A SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS,
WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 7
TO 10 DAY TIMEFRAME.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
ONGOING GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MORNING. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS RETURNING FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 13 52 22 31 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 17 49 24 36 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 10 53 25 36 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 9 51 19 31 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 9 45 19 29 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 10 43 19 27 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 12 52 23 33 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 10 47 19 28 / 0 0 0 10
F10 11 54 24 33 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 15 52 27 43 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07
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