426
FXUS64 KTSA 021110
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
A BROAD AREA OF NEGATIVE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES, WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER OVER FLORIDA. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS IS
PRESENT NEAR THE OK/AR BORDER, WITH AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE BEST FORCING
AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW, SO THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, BY AFTERNOON THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL OK. SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE NOT
EXPECTED, WITH RAIN CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 20-30% FOR ANY
GIVEN AREA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, REALLY RAMPING
UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND BETTER FORCING
MOVE INTO THE AREA. POPS PEAK AT AROUND 70% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WITH MOSTLY
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OCCURRING.
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTERS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ACCORDINGLY, A SHORT TERM REDUCTION IN
HUMIDNESS IS ANTICIPATED AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY RECOVER HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE FLOW
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF LINE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 MOST DAYS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE HIGH AND POOLS
OVER THE AREA WITH TIME.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH A
CORRESPONDING SURGE IN PWAT VALUES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
INCONSISTENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT, BUT IF IT REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA WE CAN EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER. IF IT DOES REACH THE AREA AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
FOLLOWED BY SOME COOLER AND DRIER DAYS WOULD RESULT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF'S AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 89 68 85 64 / 20 30 70 20
FSM 91 68 89 65 / 10 20 60 10
MLC 89 66 84 62 / 10 30 70 20
BVO 88 63 85 60 / 20 30 80 30
FYV 87 63 86 59 / 20 20 60 10
BYV 87 64 88 61 / 30 20 40 10
MKO 88 67 85 63 / 10 30 70 20
MIO 87 66 86 62 / 20 20 60 10
F10 87 66 82 63 / 10 30 70 20
HHW 88 68 85 64 / 10 20 60 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05
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