065
FXUS64 KTSA 220510
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1110 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
- A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING LIFE THREATENING COLD TO THE AREA
BEGINNING FRIDAY, CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, BRINGING CLIMATOLOGICALLY EXTREME SNOW AND FREEZING
RAIN TOTALS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE NEXT WEEK, SO SOCIETAL IMPACTS
WILL LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PROCEED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAYTIME THURSDAY, WITH NO IMPACTS DUE TO WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, BECOMING
BROKEN OR OVERCAST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE A VERY WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OK AND FAR NORTHWEST AR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OF ANYTHING
AND WILL WASH-OUT BY MID-MORNING. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER FROM
THE NORTHEAST TO THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND MIDDAY MIDDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND BECOMES
ELONGATED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
FOR AT LEAST A FULL WEEK, PERHAPS LONGER, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW-MID 50S. BE SURE TO ENJOY THE WARMTH
OUTSIDE WHILE IT LASTS.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A ROBUST AND HIGH-IMPACT WINTER
STORM TO AFFECT EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS
FORECAST WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS NEWER MODEL DATA COMES IN. PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND
TIMING WILL CHANGE.
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING BEFORE NOON FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-40
AND ELSEWHERE BY SUNSET. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. IN TURN, THIS
WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL EVEN COLDER AS WIND CHILL VALUES
HOVER IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INITIALLY BRING IN SOME VERY DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL CLASH WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION ONSET TIMING, PARTLY DUE TO THE DRY, SUB-CLOUD
LAYER. WITH THAT SAID, THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-40, WHERE FULL SATURATION TO THE SURFACE OCCURS FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION (WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SLEET) IS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN MODELS THAT INDICATE A COUPLE
OF UPPER-LEVEL WAVES OF HEAVIER AND MORE IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION,
WITH THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL DATA, THIS FIRST
WAVE SHOULD LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING SATURDAY BEFORE EXITING TO
THE EAST. A LULL IN HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER,
WITH SPOTTY AND PERIODIC LIGHT PRECIPITATION FALLING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO
IMPACT AND BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME SUNDAY BEFORE THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM-HIGH THAT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-40 WILL
FALL MAINLY AS SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT FROM START TO FINISH.
HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM A FEW OF THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WARM NOSE IN PLACE BETWEEN
I-40 AND HIGHWAY 412, LEAVING A LOW CHANCE OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH
SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 412 THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY.
SNOWFALL TOTALS, WHICH DO INCLUDE SLEET AMOUNTS, LIKELY WILL NOT
BE IMPACTED TOO MUCH AS THE MORE DOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE
SHOULD BE SNOW NORTH OF I-40. STILL, HALF AN INCH OF SLEET WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION TYPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40
WILL BE A LOT MORE MESSY, WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IN
PLACE MOST OF THIS EVENT. FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW WILL ALL
BE PROBABLE AT SOME POINT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK AND CLOSER
TO THE RED RIVER. AS FAR AS TOTAL SNOW/SLEET/ICE AMOUNTS, CURRENT
THINKING REMAINS MOSTLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN
GENERAL, 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW (WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN),
LOCALLY HIGHER, IS STILL EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF I-40, A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO TOTAL BETWEEN 4 TO 6 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY, ICE AMOUNTS NEAR THE
RED RIVER HAVE INCREASED SOME, WITH TOTALS TO NEAR HALF AN INCH
IN CHOCTAW AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THERE IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE ICE AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THIS COULD FALL AS SLEET INSTEAD OF ICE. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXTREMELY AND DANGEROUSLY COLD FRIDAY
THROUGH THE BEGINNING PART OF NEXT WEEK, GIVEN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND ACCUMULATIONS. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE COLDEST PERIOD OF
THE LONG-TERM WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN CLOUDS
BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WINDS BEGIN TO DIE DOWN. A DEEP SNOWPACK WILL
ESSENTIALLY KEEP TEMPERATURE WELL BELOW THAN WHAT FORECAST MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING. A GRADUAL WARM-UP WILL OCCUR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BY THURSDAY EVENING, SCATTERED
MID CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC AIRMASS. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD START OUT VARIABLE AND BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD, WINDS START TO RETURN
MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 26 53 25 25 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 28 54 31 38 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 29 57 32 38 / 0 0 10 30
BVO 21 51 18 22 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 25 54 24 31 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 25 48 24 26 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 27 53 30 34 / 0 0 0 20
MIO 25 51 21 22 / 0 0 0 10
F10 27 55 30 32 / 0 0 10 20
HHW 34 53 37 41 / 0 0 10 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ049-053>076.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page