134
FXUS64 KTSA 270530
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1230 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAPID ONSET FLASH
FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIMITED
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- A BIG SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING HOT, HUMID AND
DRY WEATHER STARTING THIS WEEKEND ON INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING LATE
FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44 IN FAR NE OK AND IN C OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OWING TO CONTINUED
WAA AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ IMPINGES ON REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
IN THE AREA. NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES A MCV/VORT MAX WILL
SLIDE EAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL
KEEP AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES GOING PAST SUNRISE.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT (PWATS > 2 IN). RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 IN/HR
AND TOTALS BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES (LOCALLY GREATER THAN 5 INCHES) WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAD TO RAPID-ONSET FLASH FLOODING, POTENTIALLY LIFE-
THREATENING, AS SOILS REMAIN SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
RAINFALL.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY POINTS TO TWO AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, ONE OF WHICH IS ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR
THE OK-KS BORDER IN NE OK, AND ANOTHER FURTHER TO THE SOUTH /
SOUTHWEST. SO FAR, LOCATIONS NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER HAVE RECEIVED
THE MOST RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING ONGOING AS A SLOW-MOVING
LINE OF REGENERATING STORMS PERSISTS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MAY
TEND TO SAG SOUTH AND EXPAND EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. TO THE SOUTHWEST, IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA,
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE RECENTLY BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA. AS THIS ACTIVITY SLIDES EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME, A FOCUSED AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW- LEVEL FLOW. WHILE SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH EXACT PLACEMENT, CURRENT INDICATIONS
PAINT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 IN
CREEK, OKFUSKEE, AND OKMULGEE COUNTIES. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ARE
PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. AFOREMENTIONED STORMS
CLOSER TO THE OK-KS BORDER MAY TEND TO WEAKEN IF THIS SOUTHERN
BAND OF STORMS BECOMES DOMINANT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL 7
AM. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL TEND TO DIMINISH WITH TIME, BUT
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING.
MOST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONCLUDE BY MID-LATE MORNING AS
STORMS WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING ELEVATED, HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND PERHAPS ABOVE 105
DEGREES (ADVISORY CRITERIA) THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADVISORY MAY BECOME
REQUIRED, BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LINGERING PRECIP/CLOUD
COVER DURING THE MORNING, WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN VERY WARM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE HEAT INDICES OVER 100-105 DEGREES EACH DAY, AND HEAT
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WHILE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, MAINLY
ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF NW AR/SE OK, DRY CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE
EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS. ONGOING STORMS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OK WILL
EVENTUALLY EXPAND INTO PART OF NORTHEAST OK OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND ULTIMATELY INTO NORTHWEST AR AFTER 09Z. IFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST SATURDAY MORNING
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 79 93 79 / 50 0 0 0
FSM 93 77 94 78 / 30 0 0 0
MLC 93 77 93 78 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 91 76 92 76 / 30 0 0 0
FYV 88 74 89 74 / 50 0 0 0
BYV 88 74 89 75 / 60 0 0 0
MKO 90 77 92 78 / 40 0 0 0
MIO 90 76 91 77 / 40 0 0 0
F10 91 77 92 77 / 30 0 0 0
HHW 92 75 93 76 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ055>071-074-154-
172-254-272-354.
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14
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