808
FXUS64 KTSA 151748
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1248 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK.
- MUCH COOLER AND PLEASANT WEATHER BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE OVERALL THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL HAS DIMINISHED
THIS MORNING, THOUGH PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 18Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST TX, AND SHOULD EXPAND MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME AS COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. THE NET EFFECT WILL
BE FOR A GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE MAIN AXIS OF RAINFALL
WITH TIME, WITH AMOUNTS GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THE CURRENT
TROPICAL CONNECTION IS ULTIMATELY PINCHED OFF. AS A RESULT THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE LESS LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL, WITH FAR SOUTHEAST OK SEEING NOTABLY LIGHTER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AREA.
IN ADDITION THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS, PROVIDING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF
FALL WEATHER. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS, THOUGH MAINLY IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE BOTH
TONIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY. SOME TRADITIONALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS
WILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW GUSTS RIGHT AROUND 40, BUT AT THIS POINT
DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD OR PROLONGED GUSTS IN THAT RANGE.
THE WINDS WILL RAISE SOME DEGREE OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF HIGH TERRAIN OF FAR SOUTHEAST OK WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT GUSTS LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE DECREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
WETTING RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
WIND SPEEDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIE DOWN FRIDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER OVERNIGHT
LOWS, POTENTIALLY NOT FAR FROM FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE
OK/KS BORDER (20-30% PROBABILITY OF 32 OR LOWER). PATCHY FROST
COULD DEVELOP IN SHELTERED AREAS, SO TENDER VEGETATION MAY NEED
SOME PROTECTION BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MORE TO NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST,
POSSIBLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK OR THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY CLEAR BEFORE
MVFR CEILING RETURN AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY IS
SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST OK TERMINALS 22-23Z AND
NORTHWEST AR AND KMLC 02-03Z WITH RENEWED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT 20-25KT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN
BECOME STRONGER ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL SCATTER OUT AGAIN OR RAISE TO VFR OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN AFTER 12Z ACROSS AT
LEAST NORTHERN TAF SITES AS CAA CONTINUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 47 59 39 60 / 30 0 0 0
FSM 53 64 44 67 / 70 0 0 0
MLC 50 62 42 64 / 80 0 0 0
BVO 42 58 33 60 / 20 0 0 0
FYV 44 59 36 63 / 80 0 0 0
BYV 46 58 40 62 / 70 0 0 0
MKO 48 60 40 62 / 60 0 0 0
MIO 45 56 36 59 / 40 0 0 0
F10 48 59 39 61 / 50 0 0 0
HHW 54 64 44 66 / 50 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ055>067-154-254-
354.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...24
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