298
FXUS64 KTSA 171701
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1201 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
- NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH A HEAT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE DURING PERIODS OF STRONGER
WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- LOW AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE, MAINLY ACROSS FAR
E OK AND NW AR, TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
ROBUST MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCER
THROUGH FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND HUMID NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AND ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES
INTACT THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
SOUTH/EAST OF I-44, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS. STRONG, NON-SEVERE, DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
THE ONLY CONCERN IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM.
CONSENSUS IN DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A POCKET OF
DRY AIR ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 850-925MB RIDGE. THIS DRIER AIR
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, WITH DECENT
MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH MIXING ACTUALLY OCCURS, GUIDANCE
HINTS AT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES
LOWER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN TODAY. THEY SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH KEEP
APPARENT TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A HANDFUL OF PLACE, ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEY, MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THE DRY AIR MAY HELP INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SLIGHTLY, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON FRIDAY WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS, THOUGH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SATURDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION, AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. PERIODIC GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE,
SPECIFICALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OK. THIS WILL CREATE LIMITED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT. LUCKILY,
THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AND THE
LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK/WESTERN AR
AND WILL NOT BE COLLOCATED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES,
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS, AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, WILDFIRE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN ON SATURDAY.
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
SLOW-MOVING FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OK LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER, WITH INSTABILITY DROPPING OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE ONLY CONCERNS WITH STORMS.
LATEST NWP MODELS SHOW THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR SOUTH THE COOLER AIR
WILL REACH, EVEN BEYOND MONDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER, CLOSER TO OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THE FRONT WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
RAIN/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY, WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT GENERAL AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY BELOW
AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK, DESPITE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TRYING
TO BUILD BACK IN.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH DIURNAL
CU EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING. A VERY
LOW CHANCE OF ON-STATION SHOWER/STORM IMPACTS EXISTS FOR MAINLY THE
W AR SITES BUT ALSO MLC MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 78 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 75 102 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 76 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 72 98 71 98 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 72 98 71 98 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 74 98 73 97 / 0 10 0 0
MKO 74 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 74 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
F10 74 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 74 99 72 99 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-055>058-
060>071-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22
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