363
FXUS64 KTSA 210242
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
842 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 828 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
- LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING, WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
LEADING TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON LIGHTER TRAVELED ROADS.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 828 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
SECONDARY PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK AND FAR NORTHWEST AR THIS EVENING. A NARROW BAND OF
ENHANCED FORCING NEAR THIS FRONTAL ZONE HAS LED TO SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, AND
EVEN SOME SLICK SPOTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BUT MANY SPOTS SHOULD SEE A FEW
HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AND A LIGHT DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF
ACCUMULATION. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CURRENT SITUATION.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS FOR A FEW HOURS, AND
A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER MAY SEE A SHORT DURATION OF
WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -5 DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE.
SIMILARLY, POINTS SOUTH SHOULD APPROACH ZERO WIND CHILL. THE
CURRENT ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS THE AREA EXPECTED TO SEE SUB-ZERO WIND
CHILLS FOR A BIT LONGER DURATION AND WILL NOT BE EXPANDED AT THIS
TIME. SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, AND WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS FOR MUCH OF NE OK AND NW AR. HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH WILL NOW INCLUDE WASHINGTON AND BENTON
COUNTIES IN NW AR ALONG WITH DELAWARE COUNTY IN E OK. THE
ADVISORY WILL STILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 10 AM TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
AFTER ONE MORE COLD DAY TUESDAY, WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY, BUT IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT APPEAR
TO BE LIMITED. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A MID CLOUD CIG THRU THE EVENING.
THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NE OK THIS EVENING AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT ACROSS SE OK LATE TONIGHT. INSERTED PROB30
GROUPS FOR MVFR VSBYS IN SNOW FOR THE NE OK SITES. OTHERWISE, THE
MID CLOUD CIGS WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 8 31 21 45 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 15 30 18 45 / 20 0 0 0
MLC 13 32 21 45 / 20 0 0 0
BVO 3 30 18 44 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 6 26 16 42 / 20 0 0 0
BYV 8 24 17 38 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 11 29 21 42 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 5 25 19 40 / 10 0 0 0
F10 11 32 21 45 / 20 0 0 0
HHW 18 32 19 43 / 20 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR OKZ063.
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...14
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