794
FXUS64 KTSA 310448
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1048 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT ANY RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. OVERALL, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY, FEATURING LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE HELP OF DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN TUESDAY
(GENERALLY MID-UPPER 50S/ LOWER 60S SOUTH). DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LIKELY UNDER MOISTURE-STARVED NW FLOW
ALOFT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
A SEASONABLY PLEASANT NEW YEARS EVE IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S/ LOWER 40S AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
BY LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA, PROVIDING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEW
YEARS DAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S OR LOWER 60S.
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY OVER THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ORIGINATING OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NAVIGATES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT, MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, IT STILL APPEARS THAT
HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A
GREATER RAINFALL FOOTPRINT OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT/ FRIDAY
MORNING THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO
INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR MUCH OF NW AR AND FAR E OK TO
BETTER REPRESENT THIS POTENTIAL. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA
SUGGEST MOST LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVE RAINFALL WILL TOTAL LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH, THOUGH AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY HEAVIER TOTALS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE EASTERN FA.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, WESTERN CONUS RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD,
BECOMING INCREASINGLY FOCUSED OVER THE PLAINS GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD
AS AFTERNOON WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION BY LONGER-RANGE GUIDANCE FOR ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE
GOING INTO MID MONTH, WHICH MAY PROVIDE BETTER PRECIPITATION
OPPORTUNITIES. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. UNTIL THEN, DRY
AND WARM REMAINS THE RULE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 30 58 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 28 58 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 30 62 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 26 58 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 27 56 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 29 53 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 29 58 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 26 53 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
F10 30 60 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 30 60 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05
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