735
FXUS64 KTSA 110422 CCA
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1122 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1117 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
- OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF E OK
AND W AR ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER RINSE AND REPEAT DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD STRONG OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, WITH VERY LITTLE RELIEF FROM
THE AFTERNOON HEAT. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. SOME MIXING MAY
OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS INCREASE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY HELP REDUCE/COOL OFF APPARENT TEMPERATURES
SOME. NEVERTHELESS, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TERRAIN AREAS OF
NORTHWEST AR, TUESDAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE WEST
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND NUDGES
INLAND, THE SUMMER RIDGE AND ITS AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD,
BECOMING POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY THURSDAY.
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY
RETROGRADE BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, THE RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL
NOT REALLY CHANGE THE OVERALL LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN...IT WILL
STILL BE CONSISTENTLY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORKWEEK, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PLEASE CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO STAY
COOL AND HYDRATED WHEN OUTDOORS THIS WEEK.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS LATE THIS WEEK, LATEST SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO AND STALLING ACROSS
CENTRAL KS THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS KEEP THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
IS IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, WHERE THEY SHOWED THE FRONT
STALLING CLOSER TO THE KS/OK BORDER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
PRODUCING LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF FAR
NORTHEAST OK AND FAR NORTHWEST AR. WITH MODELS NOW STALLING THE
FRONT FARTHER NORTH, RAIN CHANCES SEEM UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH SOME CU.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 81 102 83 103 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 77 101 79 103 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 78 101 80 102 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 77 103 79 104 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 75 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 76 97 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 76 99 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 78 99 80 102 / 0 0 0 0
F10 76 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 76 97 78 98 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-002-129-
219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30
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