610
FXUS64 KTSA 250448
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1148 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE VALLEYS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SOME OF THIS FOG MAY
BE DENSE IN SPOTS.
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY IN SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR.
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TONIGHT, WITH RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AGAIN, PARTICULARLY IN TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY,
FOG MAY BECOME DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE LOCALLY
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE.
DURING THE DAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE AREA WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR.
CAMS SUGGEST A SHOWER OR TWO COULD DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS HWY
412, BUT POPS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 PERCENT NORTH OF I-40.
OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL LIFT OVER THE AREA FULLY ON TUESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES OCCURRING AREAWIDE.
MEANWHILE, AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO THE CWA, BECOMING LIKELY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. WEAK TROUGHING WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. PWATS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS
TIME AND WEAK MEAN WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLOW STORM MOTIONS
LATE WEEK. THUS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED OVER THE COMING DAYS DUE TO WEAK SHEAR
VALUES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, KEEPING MVFR VISIBILITIES AT MOST
TAF SITES GENERALLY FROM 09-14Z MONDAY MORNING. VFR IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THEREAFTER, WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
THE DAYTIME.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 84 64 82 / 0 0 0 20
FSM 62 86 65 83 / 0 10 10 40
MLC 60 86 64 84 / 0 10 10 20
BVO 56 84 59 82 / 0 0 0 20
FYV 57 84 62 80 / 0 10 10 60
BYV 57 81 60 78 / 0 10 0 50
MKO 59 84 63 81 / 0 10 10 30
MIO 57 84 61 81 / 0 0 0 40
F10 59 84 62 82 / 0 10 10 20
HHW 63 84 65 82 / 0 20 10 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...67
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