366
FXUS64 KTSA 051143
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
543 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OK AND PART OF NORTHWEST AR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY.
- POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
AS OF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN PITTSBURG CO TO WESTERN CARROLL CO
AR. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S WERE COMMON, WHILE UPPER 40S TO MID 50 DEWPOINTS
WERE REPORTED TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. ALOFT, A 30-45KT LOW LEVEL
JET WAS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER TOP THE
BOUNDARY, AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER KANSAS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST/NORTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME, THE WESTERN PORTION
OF MOSTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE BOUNDARY
AND EXTENDED EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WERE AIDING IN THE CONTINUOUS DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, WITH THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
MCINTOSH CO TO BENTON CO.
THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA WHILE THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE SHIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS. IN RESPONSE, A LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. BY MID MORNING THURSDAY, THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST NEAR INTERSTATE 40
AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ALSO EARLY TO MID MORNING THURSDAY, WITH FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE BOUNDARY, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 99TH PERCENT- TILE
FOR MARCH, AND PRECIP TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL CONTINUE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL IS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO LOCALLY OVER
2.5 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN WITHIN THE PAST 24-HRS.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA,
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE
OVER THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND COULD MAKE A
RUN TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES
AGAIN WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST U.S.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY AND THEN BEGIN TO WARM BEHIND THE LIFTING FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES UPPER 60S TO MID 70S SHOULD BE COMMON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO HAVE A PORTION OF ITS ENERGY SPLIT OFF AND
PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS WHILE THE PARENT TROF AXIS DEVELOPS
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA DURING THE WEEKEND. WITH THE WAVE
MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW LEE OF THE ROCKIES, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND INTO
THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH STORM POTENTIALS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH
THIS EARLY ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL DEVELOPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STORM REDEVELOPMENT
FORECAST OVER THE CWA. UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER, THE AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE FRIDAY
MORNING, AND JUST HOW QUICKLY THE CAP CAN ERODE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THOUGH, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL AID
INSTABILITY TO ELEVATE SEVERE POTENTIALS AGAIN FOR THE CWA. LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND ALSO A TORNADO THREAT ARE POSSIBLE. A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAT COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOOD CONCERNS
ALSO EXISTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXITS SATURDAY
MORNING WITH PRECIP CHANCES FINALLY TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE THE 850-MB FRONT EXITS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY AND THEN EXITS MONDAY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE CUT OFF LOW MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH TIMING AND PRECIP POTENTIALS,
THOUGH WILL INCREASE POPS AGAIN FOR THIS TIME FAME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING ACROSS SE OK WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH PERIODIC IMPACTS AT KMLC
AND KFSM. FURTHER NORTH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS NE
OK AND FAR NW AR. WIDESPREAD IFR TO PERIODIC LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
THE NEAR TERM FOCUS FOR FLIGHT LEVEL IMPACTS WITH A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY INTO MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVE INTO E OK BY
LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING FRIDAY W/ LOW CLOUDS AGAIN
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL YIELD WIND SHEAR FOR ALL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 70 62 74 48 / 20 40 80 70
FSM 76 62 78 59 / 80 10 80 90
MLC 75 62 75 53 / 80 20 80 80
BVO 70 58 74 42 / 20 60 70 60
FYV 73 59 76 53 / 70 20 80 100
BYV 70 61 74 55 / 70 20 60 90
MKO 73 61 74 48 / 60 20 90 80
MIO 69 60 73 45 / 20 40 80 80
F10 73 61 74 47 / 60 30 90 70
HHW 76 62 76 62 / 80 20 80 90
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07
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