317
FXUS64 KTSA 221053
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
453 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 453 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS NEXT
WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEVELOP TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN
OF WARM WEATHER AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS
TRANSPORTING A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL DROP TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO WARM
BACK INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE CWA. IN RESPONSE, AFTERNOON
MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT WILL AID IN LIMITED
FIRE WEATHER DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBSIDING WINDS AND CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK AHEAD
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SURFACE HIGH WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH
THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES,
AND THEN EXITS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE, SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY RETURN MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST AND BECOME BREEZY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH COMMON. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ALONG WITH DELAYED MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK
INTO THE REGION WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT THIS TIME, MIN AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ARE
FORECAST BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THUS, ANY BURNING SHOULD LIKELY BE AVOIDED
TUESDAY.
A BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE
MEAGER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS EXITS. AT THIS TIME, QPF LOOKS TO
BE LIGHT. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER BEYOND THURSDAY,
THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
DURING THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESSION OF LATEST DATA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 453 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AFT 15Z, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS SUBSIDE
AFT 00Z THIS EVENING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 48 23 48 35 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 50 24 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 51 24 52 36 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 46 16 47 31 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 44 16 46 29 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 42 17 42 29 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 48 22 48 35 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 43 17 43 30 / 0 0 0 0
F10 49 22 50 36 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 52 28 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30
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