363
FXUS64 KTSA 231730
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1230 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
- HEAT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 TO 109
DEGREES.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MORE HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
- THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY DRY, BUT A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXISTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL LOW
PRECIP CHANCES DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK AND W AR THIS
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING
FOR MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY, THOUGH SEVERAL
CAMS SUGGEST LOW POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS OR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING/
EARLY TONIGHT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH, SO
WILL HOLD POPS TO 10-20%. BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN A ZONE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE/ MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTHWEST OF I-44. IN
EITHER SCENARIO, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN IN THE 70S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE
TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPS/ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MAX HIS BETWEEN 105-109
DEGREES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/ NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO KS AND POTENTIALLY NEAR THE
OK/KS BORDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE AS IT MOVES THROUGH KANSAS, AND
THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OUR FA DURING
THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE BORDER DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, INCREASING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER. DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY ENDS
UP, SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP, PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF I-44.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST WITH MOST PRECIP REMAINING NORTH OF THE FA. THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH DAILY
HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF E OK AND NW AR.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOW POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS AND PERHAPS
INTO SE OK SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE FOCUSES IN THIS
AREA. COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE, SO HAVE OPTED TO USE
NBM POPS FOR NOW, WHICH PAINT 10-20% CHANCE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK
AND W-CENTRAL AR. GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK, LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
AREAWIDE AS THE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY ERODE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE GUSTING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET AND REDEVELOP AGAIN MID TO
LATE MORNING TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT BVO
IS NONZERO TONIGHT BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED, THE CHANCE
IS LOW ENOUGH TO ONLY MENTION HERE AND HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 77 99 77 98 / 10 10 10 0
FSM 74 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 74 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 73 97 74 97 / 20 20 20 0
FYV 71 97 74 96 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 73 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 73 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 75 96 74 97 / 0 10 10 0
F10 74 97 73 98 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 72 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ054>062-064-
066>068-070>072-074>076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22
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