460
FXUS64 KTSA 141725
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
WARMER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH MID WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL STORM
AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE HANGING AROUND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINING WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN
BEHIND THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
60S FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH THAT
CAN CLEAR OUT OF CLOUD COVER COULD DIP INTO THE 50S BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD, ANY
AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT OWING TO THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. BETTER
CHANCES TO SEE CLEARING SKIES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH, SO HAVE
MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH JUST LOW CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PLANTED OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. MONDAY SHOULD STAY DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
AS SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD. STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING
DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID JUNE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
GENERATE A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS. THE RESULTING
MCS COULD MAKE A RUN AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RATHER MINIMAL BY THIS
POINT, BUT A FEW AREAS COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY,
WITH MORE TYPICAL HEAT BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
CREEP BACK TO NEAR 90 WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES PUSH BACK TO NEAR
AND ABOVE 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PATTERN TURNS A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN HEADING INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, A TROPICAL LOW IF PROGGED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO THE ARKLATEX. THIS WILL PULL
MORE TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE BEGINNING THURSDAY, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WELL. MORE RAIN CHANCES MAY ARRIVE BY LATE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STORM SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE VARIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND STORM CHANCES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT IN CHECK, NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
PRECIPITATION HAS LARGELY MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION, THOUGH SOME
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST BUT DECREASE FROM THE NORTH
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
MVFR CEILINGS MAY EXPAND NORTH TO NEAR KMLC FOR A TIME MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHWEST AR AND
FAR NORTHEAST OK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 76 61 80 61 / 30 0 0 0
FSM 83 66 81 63 / 50 10 0 10
MLC 80 65 81 62 / 80 20 10 0
BVO 75 57 81 58 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 78 59 78 57 / 20 10 0 0
BYV 76 58 77 56 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 77 62 80 60 / 50 10 0 0
MIO 76 58 78 59 / 10 0 0 0
F10 77 61 79 59 / 70 10 0 0
HHW 83 68 79 65 / 90 40 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14
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