160
FXUS64 KTSA 201741
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND
REMAIN FORECAST DAILY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
- ABNORMALLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A
SLOW WARMING TREND THEN DEVELOPING INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS
UNDERNEATH WEAK MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN INTO
TONIGHT OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OF UPPER 50S TO MID 70S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
CHANGING ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S/60S.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AS THE MID LEVEL HIGH EXITS TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST, MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTWARD WHICH
WILL AID IN LIFTING A SHORTWAVE OUT OF MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
COMBINED WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRING THE RETURN
OF RAIN SHOWERS TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY ELEVATED AND REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. THUS WILL ONLY CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIALS
SPREAD OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, AND IN RESPONSE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES FORECAST, A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
EXISTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. AT THIS TIME,
WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS TOPPING 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS RAINFALL ON TOP OF RECENT RAINS COULD INCREASE FLOOD
CONCERNS INTO FRIDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND EXIT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
DEPARTING WAVE. CLOUDS COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THE
COOLER CONDITIONS THURSDAY. AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE
EXITS FRIDAY, CLOUD COVER TRIES TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES INCREASE OUT WEST WITH A
DEVELOPING VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING OUT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLES.
THIS VORT MAX MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE CWA
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY INCREASES THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. AGAIN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
EXISTS WITH ALSO AN ISOLATED TO LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE REGION, AND THEN LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD SUNDAY FROM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMING MORE OF A
CUT OFF LOW THAT HOLDS OVER THE REGION INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE GETTING PICKED UP WITH A LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THUS, SHOWER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REMAIN FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA.
AT THIS TIME, THE GREATER POTENTIAL COULD BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS EACH DAY, THOUGH MORE PRECISE DETAILS ARE
STILL TO BE DETERMINED. A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED/LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE, BROUGHT IN BY
THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY, CONTINUES TO BRING LOW (SOME IFR) CIGS
TO THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE COOL WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS SUCH, EXPECT CLIMBING CIGS AND IMPROVEMENT
IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER
STORM SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING RAIN AND STORMS
ON THURSDAY. CIGS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AT THE E OK SITES DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST BACK TO MVFR. SOME BRIEF MVFR MAY
ALSO APPEAR AT THE NW AR SITES THU MORNING, BUT A TREND BACK TO
VFR CIGS IS EXPECTED THERE LATER IN THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES
UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST, HOWEVER KEPT THE
GOING PROB30 MENTION FOR THE E OK SITES FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 59 70 63 78 / 30 90 90 40
FSM 63 77 65 79 / 10 60 90 50
MLC 63 73 64 81 / 20 90 90 20
BVO 55 69 60 78 / 30 80 90 50
FYV 60 75 63 75 / 20 60 90 80
BYV 58 73 62 73 / 10 60 90 90
MKO 60 72 63 79 / 30 90 90 40
MIO 57 71 62 74 / 20 70 90 80
F10 60 71 62 79 / 30 90 90 20
HHW 65 74 64 81 / 20 90 90 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30
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