036
FXUS64 KTSA 021802
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
102 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 101 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
- STRONG WIND GUSTS PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
- ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING WITH INCREASING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPIRED AS OF 1 PM. GUSTY WINDS MAY
STILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
A WIND ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL 1 PM
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. WIND GUST POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER 925-850 MB FLOW EXITS THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
MAINLY NW AR, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASE GOING
INTO TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW EXPANDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
SOME WAA SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS FAR E OK AND NW AR, EXPANDING
INTO SE OK BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY WARM
NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW EJECTS
NORTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FA. BY
LATE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA. FLOW WILL
GENERALLY RUN PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, FAVORING A LINEAR STORM MODE.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL FOSTER A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, WITH LARGE HAIL (INITIALLY) AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE OVERLY FAVORABLE, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH HIGHEST
IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. STORMS CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WELL INTO
THE NIGHT, THOUGH WANING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE SEVERE
THREAT.
PWATS WILL AGAIN BE APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, AND GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE RECENT
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO HELP REDUCE THE OVERALL FLOODING
POTENTIAL, SEVERAL AREAS PICKED UP 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL POSE A LOCALLY HIGHER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN
THESE AREAS.
PRECIPITATION EXITS SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILLING IN BEHIND IT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SHOULD BE HELD IN THE 60S, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS PROJECTED TO
PROGRESS BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF DEEPENING W CONUS
TROUGHING. THIS PERMITS GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE, AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL RAIN/ THUNDER OPPORTUNITIES LATE
WEEK. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, THIS MAY IMPLY ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES, BUT THE RAINS ARE GREATLY NEEDED AS SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS E OK AND NW AR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED WITH SOME LINGERING SCATTERED CLOUDS
STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE NW AR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OK AND INTO AR, BUT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. KEPT MENTION OUT OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE AND AMENDMENTS
WILL BE MADE IF IT APPEARS LIKELY TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE
FSM TERMINAL SITE. LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN NORTHWARD DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AT MOST,
IF NOT ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 68 81 51 66 / 0 60 100 20
FSM 67 85 56 70 / 30 60 100 70
MLC 68 83 54 68 / 10 60 100 50
BVO 62 80 47 66 / 0 70 90 10
FYV 64 82 51 66 / 30 50 100 60
BYV 66 80 52 63 / 20 50 100 60
MKO 67 81 51 65 / 10 50 100 40
MIO 65 79 47 62 / 10 60 100 20
F10 67 80 50 66 / 0 60 100 30
HHW 66 81 54 68 / 20 50 90 80
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...99
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