042
FXUS64 KTSA 312329
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM PORTIONS OF NW
OK THROUGH CENTRAL KS WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND APPROACH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
CLOSER BUT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FRONT, GENERALLY NORTH
OF I-44. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE A LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT, WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. STORMS SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD, WHILE WEAKENING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS NE OK WITHIN AN INVIGORATED AREA OF WARM ADVECTION. THESE
STORMS LIKELY WON'T HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT, BUT SOME HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
OTHERWISE, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE NOTED BY CONTINUED BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND GENERALLY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING,
MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS PRETTY LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT
SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON, A RELATIVELY STRONG MID
LEVEL WAVE WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STALL OUT
AND BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS INTENSIFIES OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE
EJECTING SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF WARM, BREEZY,
AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 80S.
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH ASCENT FROM EJECTING SHORTWAVE, INITIALLY
FOCUSED WEST AND NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. THEREFORE, MUCH OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AFTER ANY MORNING
CONVECTION DISSIPATES WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE LLJ. ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC WAVE INTERACTS WITH A
SHARPENING DRYLINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ORGANIZE AND EVENTUALLY
GROW UPSCALE INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AN INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THE LINE
FINALLY GETS TO OUR AREA, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ALONG WITH A TORNADO THREAT AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR INTENSIFIES
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
TO BE FROM AROUND 8 OR 9PM TO 1AM WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, SOME TRAINING OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, THOUGH GIVEN THE RECENT
DRY SPELL, FLOODING CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS. AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER FAR E OK AND W AR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WHERE SKIES CLEAR, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S OR 80S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WHERE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER
LINGERS ACROSS THE EAST. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
ON FRIDAY. A STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE REGION. AGAIN, MODEST MIXED LAYER CAPPING APPEARS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THEREFORE, STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FRIDAY, BUT IF SOME STORMS CAN DEVELOP THEY WILL HAVE THE
CHANCE TO BE SEVERE WITH ALL HAZARD POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. MAIN SEVERE THREATS WITH THE FRONTAL ACTIVITY
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUBTLE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER TO CLOSE
OUT THE PERIOD.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH CEILINGS THEN LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY
LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. LLWS WILL EXIST AT ALL SITES FROM LATER
THIS EVENING UNTIL MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO
AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
THE CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS AFFECTING ANY TAF SITE ARE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 67 83 65 82 / 30 20 100 30
FSM 64 86 67 80 / 10 10 60 80
MLC 67 85 65 80 / 10 10 90 50
BVO 60 83 61 82 / 40 30 100 20
FYV 63 83 63 77 / 10 10 70 80
BYV 65 83 65 75 / 20 20 50 80
MKO 65 83 63 80 / 20 10 90 50
MIO 65 83 62 78 / 40 30 100 50
F10 66 84 62 81 / 20 10 100 30
HHW 64 83 64 77 / 10 0 70 70
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05
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