958
FXUS64 KTSA 010448
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1048 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT MOST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.
OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THURSDAY.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL, BUT IT WILL BE A BIT
COOLER NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. DESPITE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDINESS, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER AREA. THE RESULT WILL
BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR A BIT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND SUNDAY AS SOUTH
WINDS RETURN. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME PLACES POSSIBLY APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS.
AN UPTICK IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY
ON ANY DAYS WHERE WINDS BECOME BREEZY. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA, BUT MODEL DISPARITY IS LARGE AT THIS TIME
RANGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
ALL SITES. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO NE OK SITES THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY BVO, BEHIND A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THESE LOW CLOUDS, BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BETWEEN 12-17Z. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ANY LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
AFTERNOON, WITH SCT TO BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPANDING FROM THE
WEST. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AS EARLY AS 04Z FRIDAY, BUT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR JUST AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST WINDOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 34 63 44 57 / 0 0 40 20
FSM 34 68 47 60 / 0 0 30 20
MLC 35 69 47 64 / 0 0 40 10
BVO 29 60 37 54 / 0 0 30 20
FYV 35 66 44 57 / 0 0 30 30
BYV 37 65 45 52 / 0 0 20 30
MKO 34 66 47 60 / 0 0 40 20
MIO 32 59 42 54 / 0 0 20 20
F10 34 67 46 61 / 0 0 50 10
HHW 35 68 48 67 / 0 0 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43
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