245
FXUS64 KTSA 291909
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
209 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
DISCUSSION
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN
THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL REMAIN THE
BIG ISSUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HOWEVER SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW-POINTS
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.
FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE WITH HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CAN BE RE-EVALUATED
AND UPGRADED IF DEW-POINTS TREND HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
REGARDLESS, WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 103 TO 109 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED BOTH AFTERNOONS.
UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY LATE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ALONG/BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40, BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER WITH FROPA.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH STALLS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. AT LEAST LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER
DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES
IN STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 78 100 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 76 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 74 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 74 97 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 71 97 72 96 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 73 98 73 96 / 0 10 0 10
MKO 74 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 73 97 74 96 / 0 0 0 10
F10 75 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 76 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-054-059-
063>065-068-069-073>076.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ055>058-060>062-066-067-070>072.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-
020-029.
LONG TERM....12
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