424
FXUS64 KTSA 130439
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
- STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILL VALUES SUNDAY MORNING NORTH OF
I-40.
- COLD SUNDAY WITH QUICK WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MID WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES EAST ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
PREVAILS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY THOUGH
THE COLDEST AIR WILL LAG AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH WARM
MODIFIED BY EXPANDING CLOUD COVER IN THE PRE FRONTAL SECTOR. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION. VERY COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE OCCURRING BY SUNRISE SUNDAY AND PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE TAKEN FOR ANY PROLONGED OUTDOOR EXPOSURE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
COLD TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY RELAXING THROUGH
THE DAY. CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY COLD LOW TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AR WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LAST TO TURN SOUTHERLY BY EARLY MONDAY. THE COLD WILL BE SHORT
LIVED WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.
BROAD FETCH OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES. A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
MAY DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT TIMED FOR THURSDAY PRIMARILY FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE MINOR
AND THE PREVAILING PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS WARM AND DRY
FOR MID DECEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LESS THAN IDEAL WITH THIS
AVIATION PACKAGE. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOPS AND
MOVES OVER EASTERN OK AND PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST AR NEAR OR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW A MIXTURE OF
MVFR AND IFR THROUGH MUCH OF MORNING. COVERAGE, TIMING, AND DURATION
OF THE CEILINGS ARE STILL UNKNOWN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH OR BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT ADDITIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS MAY LINGER ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP AND
BECOME GUSTY, WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS OR GREATER AT TIMES. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY, TAFS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AND AMENDED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 30 50 19 32 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 36 58 25 39 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 32 59 22 37 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 26 46 15 32 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 31 56 17 34 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 30 54 15 29 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 32 54 20 35 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 28 47 14 29 / 0 0 0 0
F10 30 55 20 34 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 38 57 28 41 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67
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