307
FXUS64 KTSA 241123
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT AND COOL DOWN WILL OCCUR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE REGION, KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT NORTHEAST/EAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SLIDES EASTWARD.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS, THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR REMAINS TOO DRY AND
STABLE FOR ANY AFTERNOON POP-UP CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S (NORTH) TO THE LOW/MID
90S (SOUTH), OR ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD, HOVERING IN THE
LOW/MID 60S UNDERNEATH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND FLATTEN THE EXPANSIVE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY PLAGUING THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS, IT
WILL ALLOW A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF OK.
THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE NBM INTRODUCED LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-40%) AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE TULSA METRO. MEANWHILE, GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SHOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO AHEAD AND ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND
WILL THROW IN LOW, MENTIONABLE POPS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE
FRIDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA. THESE LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED NORTH OF I-44 THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND NON-
IMPACTFUL. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST
TO THICKEN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
RIDES OVER THE RIDGE AND PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. GENERALLY, THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES (50-70%) WILL OCCUR
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-40 LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONS, DESPITE THE CONTINUOUS RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WASH-OUT.
CONSENSUS IN MODELS KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
INCH, BUT ENSEMBLES AND A FEW GLOBAL MODEL OUTLIERS INDICATE IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY EXCEED AN INCH. SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME, WITH LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FILL IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LATEST ENSEMBLES AND LONG-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO
BUILD CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING A MUCH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN, AS WELL AS A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AREA WIDE WITH PERIODIC
MID/HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 89 66 85 69 / 0 0 10 20
FSM 89 63 89 68 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 94 64 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 86 61 82 64 / 0 10 30 30
FYV 86 57 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 82 59 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 89 62 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 84 61 82 67 / 0 0 10 20
F10 90 62 87 67 / 0 0 10 20
HHW 91 62 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07
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