160
FXUS64 KTSA 211603
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1003 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1001 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
- WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY
SUNDAY.
- MILD WEATHER CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
SUNNY SKIES AND A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL START A
WARMING TREND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S AS SOUTH WINDS BECOME RATHER BREEZY.
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CHRISTMAS DAY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS DUE TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM VARIES AMONG THE
MODELS, SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE NBM POPS FOR NOW. REGARDLESS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ALL WEEK, SO PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN ALL LIQUID. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AROUND, DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL NEXT WEEK, WITH
MOST HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. LIGHT SFC WINDS (GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS) AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 47 30 55 43 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 47 29 53 39 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 49 30 55 44 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 46 22 55 38 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 46 22 51 37 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 44 27 52 38 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 47 28 54 41 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 45 27 52 41 / 0 0 0 0
F10 49 30 55 43 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 48 30 53 42 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43
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