785
FXUS64 KTSA 230833
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
333 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2020
DISCUSSION
STRONG COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A MIAMI/TULSA/OILTON LINE THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED SOME IN AREAL
COVERAGE ACROSS NE OK THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
WITH SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. COOL BUT
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE
EAST. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN SUNDAY AHEAD THE NEXT FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING A SHOT OF EVEN COLDER AIR TO START THE NEXT WORK
WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IS STILL IN QUESTION,
WITH THE GFS STILL THE COLDEST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS. HAVE
OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER SOLUTIONS, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NE OK TO WARRANT A MENTION OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AIRMASS LOOKS TO MODIFY
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES BEGINS LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE THE PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 49 37 55 48 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 65 45 57 49 / 90 0 0 0
MLC 54 40 57 49 / 80 0 0 0
BVO 48 34 53 44 / 20 0 0 0
FYV 55 36 57 43 / 100 0 0 0
BYV 59 38 56 44 / 90 0 0 0
MKO 52 39 54 47 / 60 0 0 0
MIO 48 34 54 45 / 30 0 0 0
F10 50 37 54 47 / 50 0 0 0
HHW 66 45 57 49 / 90 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....23
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