796
FXUS64 KTSA 251728
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HIGH HEAT STRESS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- PERIODS OF LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH LATE WEEK
- AREAS OF LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OCCURS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I-44, WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
COMMON NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A SUBTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
NOTED ACROSS THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES HOLDING
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTH ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT,
THOUGH REMNANTS OF AN ONGOING STORM COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COULD PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE
WORKS AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. LATEST TIMING IS
A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE, SO HAVE
BACKED OFF CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AS A RESULT. ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ALONG THE LEFT OVER
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE REMNANTS DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCV THAT THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE MCV WILL LEAD TO MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS MUSH OF
THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE MCV ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE, AND INSTABILITY COULD LEAD
TO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. AN EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO WORK SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH LESS HOT CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-40.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES NEARER TO NORMAL WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THURSDAY AND LIKELY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH DRY WEATHER WILL ALSO
PERSIST UNDER SURFACE RIDGING. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
BACK OVERHEAD. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND 100S ACROSS THE REGION TO FINISH OUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AFTER
WEDNESDAY.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST
AREAS, LOWERING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING WELL ABOVE MVFR
CRITERIA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40 AND SOUTH
TO THE SOUTH OF THAT LINE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WINDS WILL STAY A SIMILAR DIRECTION BUT BECOME
LIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KBVO OR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AR BUT PROBABILITIES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-40 AND MORE WESTERLY TO THE SOUTH OF THERE. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT NORTHEAST OK OR NORTHWEST AR, BUT WILL REMAIN
VERY ISOLATED WITH LITTLE IMPACT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 93 71 92 / 10 30 20 0
FSM 75 99 73 97 / 20 30 30 0
MLC 76 98 71 95 / 20 30 20 0
BVO 71 92 66 90 / 10 20 20 0
FYV 72 93 67 91 / 20 50 30 0
BYV 72 91 68 89 / 20 60 30 0
MKO 73 95 70 93 / 20 30 20 0
MIO 72 91 66 89 / 10 20 20 0
F10 73 95 70 93 / 10 30 10 0
HHW 77 99 73 96 / 20 20 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-065-066-
070-071-073>075-176-272-276.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
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