546
FXUS64 KTSA 081132
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
632 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 632 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS MORNING. MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT HEADLINES
LIKELY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FOR A ZONE OF
HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL SETTING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A DEEP, MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WHICH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS. A PSEUDO WARM FRONT IS NOTED IN THE THETA-E
ANALYSIS, DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA GENERALLY ALONG A LINE
FROM TULSA TO FORT SMITH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF A MODESTLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET STREAMS OVER THE BOUNDARY.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS AND BACK BUILDING OF STORMS SEEM LIKELY
TO SET UP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONAL ASCENT AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA WILL ALSO OVERLAP, LEADING TO RENEWED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY LASTING INTO MID MORNING MONDAY.
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE OTHER FEATURES MENTIONED WILL
GENERATE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES OVER THE AREA. TRAINING OF
STORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 PLUS
INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE NEAR THE OK/KS/MO/AR BORDERS BY SUNRISE
MONDAY. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME TO COVER
THIS SCENARIO. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING CONCERN, STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR, COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
FAVOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A CLUSTER, AS A COLD POOL
DEVELOPS, AND SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY MORNING MORE INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION, ANY REMAINING STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.
THE REST OF THE DAY MONDAY WILL SEE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW. AS SKIES CLEAR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
THAT COMBINED WITH VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S, OWING TO
ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL, WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF
100 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WESTERN ARKANSAS
AREAS COULD SEE LINGERING CLOUD COVER, LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING
MCS, WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
HEAT SOME FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEARBY.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A COUPLE OF HOT AND VERY HUMID DAYS WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION. THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY EVENING AND TRY TO TRACK TO FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE WEAKENING.
THINKING RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP MENTIONABLE POPS NORTH OF THE CWA AS
THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD QUICKLY SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THE FURTHER
SOUTH IT GETS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND UPDATED AS
NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION
AND HIGH DEWPOINTS OWING TO THE RECENT RAINFALL LEADING TO HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES. HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA.
THE PATTERN TURNS A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED AGAIN HEADING INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS PERSISTENT TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS WITH MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO. VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL LIKELY PUSH A SERIES OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES INTO THE REGION, BEGINNING THURSDAY, BRINGING
INCREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TAKING THE EDGE OFF
OF TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A POTENTIAL STRONGER PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR IS POSSIBLE BY
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING SOME
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS TO THE REGION IF THAT HAPPENS.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE THE LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
OVER FAR NE OK AND SW MO, WHICH IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH INTO NW
AR THIS MORNING. WITH CHANCES PRETTY HIGH THAT STORMS WILL IMPACT
THE NW AR TERMINALS, USED A COMBO OF PREVAILING VCTS MENTION ALONG
WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS FOR THE MOST FAVORED TIME
WINDOWS. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AT KFSM OF A DIRECT HIT, THUS
ONLY MVFR MENTION IN TEMPO GROUP THERE. FARTHER WEST ACROSS NE OK,
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT, SO WILL USE A TEMPO FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS FOR AN MVFR CIG. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THESE SITES, SO NO
MENTION WAS INCLUDED. FARTHER SOUTH AT KMLC, MVFR CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY, A LLWS GROUP
WAS ADDED AT KBVO AFT 06Z WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF US BUT CLIPPING THE AREA.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 89 77 91 77 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 91 76 93 75 / 20 0 0 0
MLC 90 78 91 77 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 88 76 91 77 / 30 0 0 0
FYV 86 75 88 75 / 80 0 0 0
BYV 85 73 89 73 / 80 0 0 0
MKO 89 75 90 75 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 87 75 90 75 / 80 10 0 0
F10 89 75 90 75 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 90 75 90 76 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ055>058-060>063-
067>070-154-172-254-272-354.
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
119-120-219-220.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page