481
FXUS64 KTSA 280514
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WILL COME TO AN END IN THE COMING HOURS AND SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MAINLY OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY DESPITE
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 WHERE SPRING GREEN-UP
HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S AND 80S EACH DAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AS IT
APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK, CONTINUING THE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THAT TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS INITIALLY WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WHILE SHIFTING
TO THE EAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 49 80 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 44 80 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 48 80 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 44 80 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 41 77 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 44 75 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 46 79 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 45 76 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
F10 47 80 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 47 78 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
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