591
FXUS64 KTSA 090513
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1213 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1126 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
- THERE IS A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER RISK FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A FRONT.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS IN BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST DURING THIS TIME.
- A WINDOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS EMERGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A FRONT OVER WESTERN KANSAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING
AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE REGION.
MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT, SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS EXPECTED
TO DECOUPLE AND RADIATE DOWN. SITES SUCH AS BARTLESVILLE AND DRAKE
FIELD WILL BE COOLER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING,
POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S, WHILE 50S ARE OBSERVED
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND MILDER IN THE COMING NIGHTS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY, SOUTH OF A
FRONT OVER KANSAS. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED CU AROUND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES, AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERN,
THOUGH THIS CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED BY THE GREEN-UP THAT IS
OCCURRING OVER THE REGION.
LACY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT OVER KANSAS MOVES SOUTH TOWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
AND STALL NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL POSE A
LIMITED HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY SATURDAY, THE BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE
A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
STORM CHANCES FROM THE WEST. A SUBTLE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY SUNDAY. THE MODELS
ALSO SHOW POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL. WITH
BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
SOME CHANCE FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY.
A WAVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DIVES
EQUATOR-WARD BY THE WEEKEND, KICKING THE CURRENT WEAKER SYSTEM OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A
STRONG AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EJECT INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE DETAILS SUCH AS TIMING, SURFACE FEATURE PLACEMENT,
ETC. WILL BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS, THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS GENERAL IDEA FROM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA TO
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WINDOW FOR MORE HEIGHTENED AND
HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT NEXT
WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. LOOKING FARTHER DOWN
THE ROAD, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST GOING INTO THE APRIL 20S, WITH MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER TO FOLLOW.
LACY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AT ALL SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
FSM. EXPECT GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. LLWS LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NE OK
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT CURRENT TIMING IS MOST LIKELY AFTER THE END OF
THIS PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 81 61 81 61 / 0 0 30 20
FSM 82 58 83 60 / 10 0 20 10
MLC 80 61 81 61 / 10 0 10 10
BVO 81 56 80 56 / 0 20 60 30
FYV 79 54 80 58 / 10 0 30 10
BYV 78 58 79 57 / 10 0 40 10
MKO 80 58 81 59 / 0 0 20 10
MIO 80 58 77 58 / 0 10 70 30
F10 80 60 82 60 / 0 0 20 10
HHW 79 59 80 59 / 0 0 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...22
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