432
FXUS64 KTSA 111733
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1133 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1122 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
- LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY DUE TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
- ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE
COLD FRONTS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
- THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT IN THE PERIOD MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SINGLE DIGIT WIND
CHILL VALUES SUNDAY MORNING NORTH OF I-40.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRY LOW LEVELS AND RETURN TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AIDED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY, DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TARGETS A
SMALL PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA /NAMELY PARTS OF SOUTHERN
CREEK, OKFUSKEE AND WESTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES/ FOR THE WORST
COMBINATION OF PARAMETERS, INCLUDING 75TH TO 85TH PERCENTILE ERC
VALUES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AN EXPECTED DECREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS /ALBEIT A MODEST ONE/.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE IN SPEED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-44
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN MOST LOCALES.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE DAY FRIDAY, LIKELY CLEARING THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDDAY. A
GRADIENT IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO OCCUR, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES HANGING ON FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER VALUES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF, ESPECIALLY WHEN
CONSIDERING THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE NBM
INITIALIZATION USING THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE VALUES FOR SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AND BY MIXING IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE GUSTS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE A RETURN SATURDAY TO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO MUCH OF A WARMUP IN MOST AREAS
COMPARED TO FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND PERHAPS INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS, WITH THE OVERALL CHANCE
REMAINING BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR NOW.
THE MUCH ADVERTISED STRONG COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DATA TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT MORE TOWARD THE
COLDER SOLUTIONS, WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40. WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD USING
A SIMILAR PROCESS TO THOSE WITH THE FRIDAY FRONT.
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PASS WELL TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
PUSHING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO MUCH
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AND LIKELY A NON-DIURNAL LOW
TEMPERATURE TREND SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY IN MOST SPOTS. THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH THAT HIGHS ON MONDAY
SHOULD STILL BE BELOW NORMAL DESPITE THE SOUTH WINDS. HOWEVER,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN BY TUESDAY AND CERTAINLY
BY WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK GIVEN A
REDUCED MERIDIONAL FLOW COMPONENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOR ALL SITES WITH FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUD. SFC WINDS REMAIN GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
LLJ STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BY 10Z, WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHERLY
LLWS DEVELOPING ACROSS NE OK SITES. BY LATE MORNING, SFC WINDS
STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS AGAIN NEAR 20 KTS, ESPECIALLY IN NE OK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 40 53 31 49 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 39 63 36 56 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 41 61 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 37 51 26 46 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 40 56 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 42 54 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 40 57 34 54 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 38 49 28 46 / 0 0 0 0
F10 40 57 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 40 64 39 57 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43
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