753
FXUS64 KTSA 190419
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1109 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 95-105F SUNDAY, AND 105-112 F FOR
MANY AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTHERN AREAS, BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN MORE EARNESTLY SUNDAY, WITH
WARMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL INCREASE RELATIVE TO THE LAST
FEW DAYS. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 98-106 F, WARMEST IN
NORTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR.
LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS, A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BUT GIVEN REDUCED INSTABILITY FROM INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS SHOULD BE REDUCED. STORM
CHANCES LOOK TO FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
AN OPPRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
EXPAND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THESE DAYS, WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO LOOK UNUSUALLY WARM, WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 F. WITH CONTINUED ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, HEAT INDICES
WILL RISE TO 100-112F ON THESE DAYS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES.
HEAT HEADLINES FOR THESE DAYS ARE EXPECTED.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY THAT A WEAK
AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ONLY A MARGINAL IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS ABOUT 2-4 F COOLER IN THE NORTH, AND 1-2
F COOLER IN THE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT.
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURE, THIS SUGGESTS THAT HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, WITH
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT
HEADLINES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA. THE SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL OPEN THE
DOOR TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GLANCING STORM CHANCES, PARTICULARLY
FOR NORTHWEST AR, WITH DAILY POPS OF 10-30% FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK
UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNDOWN, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN,
AND LIGHTNING. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY,
THOUGH THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS, MAINLY NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER, AND BELOW MENTIONABLE
CRITERIA FOR THE TAFS. FEW- SCT CLOUDS IN THE 4-6 KFT LAYER ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MIDLEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WEAKER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 76 96 79 100 / 10 0 10 0
FSM 76 97 77 99 / 20 10 0 0
MLC 75 95 77 97 / 20 10 10 0
BVO 74 95 76 99 / 30 0 0 0
FYV 73 93 75 95 / 10 20 10 10
BYV 72 94 74 95 / 10 20 10 20
MKO 74 94 76 97 / 10 10 0 0
MIO 73 94 76 97 / 10 10 10 10
F10 73 93 75 97 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 75 93 75 95 / 0 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ055>058-
060>062-064>067-070-071-074-176-254-272-354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ129-220.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...06
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