436
FXUS64 KTSA 132325
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- WIDELY SCATTERED, AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.
- STORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA.
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOME GRADUAL MOISTENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS AN INVERTED MID-
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX.
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO THE TROUGH PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
ANY REMAINING CLUSTERS DRIFT WESTWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH ANY PATCHY
FOG MORE LIMITED AS A RESULT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EASTERLY THROUGH THIS TIME
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING WESTWARD BENEATH THE RIDGE
AXIS. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THIS REGIME TUESDAY WITH A BIT MORE NORTHWARD EXTENT AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITH THE RIDGE CENTER ADJUSTED
FURTHER EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL
REMAIN LARGELY FLAT THROUGH MID WEEK THANKS TO THE RIDGE AXIS
ELONGATING INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROTATING WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS A
MORE COMPACT SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO LINGER LONGER INTO THE
EVENING THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. OVERALL, LAPSE RATES AND WIND SHEAR
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THIS TIME WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
CONTRIBUTING TO A LOW THREAT OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS. AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BENEATH THE RIDGE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A RETURN OF MORE STEADY SOUTHERLY
FLOW. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL LESSEN THURSDAY AND BECOME MORE
ISOLATED ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DOMINATE. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
SOME LOCAL HEAT HEADLINES POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG POTENTIAL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR
KFYV. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SOUTH OF ANY TERMINALS
CURRENTLY AND ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TAF.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL IN MOSTLY THE SAME LOCATIONS. COVERAGE APPEARS
TO BE LOWER THAN TODAY, SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 91 72 91 / 10 10 10 20
FSM 73 93 73 91 / 20 20 20 70
MLC 71 90 70 89 / 20 20 10 50
BVO 69 90 69 90 / 10 10 10 20
FYV 68 89 69 87 / 10 20 20 70
BYV 66 88 68 86 / 10 20 20 60
MKO 71 90 70 88 / 10 10 10 40
MIO 69 91 70 90 / 10 10 10 40
F10 70 88 69 88 / 10 20 10 30
HHW 70 88 69 86 / 20 30 10 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...04
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