572
FXUS64 KTSA 272317
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
617 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
WEST OF THE LOCAL REGION WILL SPREAD NNE OVERNIGHT WITH A MORE
SUBTLE WAVE POSSIBLY AIDING LATE NIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OR
NEAR NE OK. OVERALL CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW BUT A FEW SHOWERS BY
SUNRISE WED WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS NE OK BY WED AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LOCALLY RAISE
GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD RATES THROUGH WED. AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
NEAR PERSISTENT CONDITIONS EXTEND INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ATTENTION WILL BECOME THE TROPICAL
REMNANTS AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING INTO WEST TX ON
FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY BEFORE EXPANDING EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BULK OF GUIDANCE KEEPS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RATHER LIGHT DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT ANY
AMOUNTS WILL BE WELCOME IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE SO ANY
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO
OUTDOOR EVENTS ON SATURDAY. PRECIP TIMING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS SIMILAR WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND FAVORS RAINS
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST MID SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY EVENING.
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY BEFORE INFLUENCE FROM A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORM SYSTEM RETURNS PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
REGION MONDAY. THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM HAS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME RANGE BUT EARLY TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN FOR A
WIDESPREAD INFLUENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS BY MAINTAINING FAIRLY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SCATTERED MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME TOMORROW AGAIN, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NE OK SITES.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 61 82 62 84 / 10 10 0 10
FSM 56 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 58 82 61 84 / 0 10 0 0
BVO 57 82 57 84 / 10 10 0 10
FYV 52 80 54 81 / 0 10 0 0
BYV 56 80 57 82 / 0 10 0 0
MKO 57 82 59 84 / 0 10 0 0
MIO 57 80 60 83 / 10 10 0 0
F10 58 82 62 85 / 0 10 0 10
HHW 56 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
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