773
FXUS64 KTSA 261120
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
520 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1051 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
- MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- LOW HUMIDITY, MARGINAL WINDS AND VERY DRY VEGETATION WILL
MAINTAIN A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER THREAT INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING PERIODIC RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A SURFACE LOW HAS SETTLED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING
LEAVING A POOL OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE, WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WERE GENERALLY
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM A SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH THE GEOSTATIONARY LIGHTNING MAPPER DETECTING
FLASHES SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT AIDING MAINTENANCE
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY, HOWEVER, DRY AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB WILL
KEEP ANY PRECIP VERY LIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE CWA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DROP FURTHER WEST ACROSS KANSAS
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WITH THIS
SECOND WAVE WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON LEAVING LOW HUMIDITY AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. DESPITE THE LOWER FIRE SPREAD RATES, A LIMITED WILDFIRE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY AND
DENSE, DRY VEGETATION IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS BACK NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 412 AND WEST OF US 75.
EVEN WARMER AND MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS 850 MB FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASES.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE WITH TIME ALSO, FIRST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY LEAVING A WINDOW FOR INCREASED
WILDFIRE CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER AND
BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO FLATTEN SOME AND A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES
THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS LOW ON SUNDAY AS GUIDANCE REMAINS
SPLIT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT. THE
LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH 70S GENERALLY CONFINED SOUTH OF
I-40. A SHARP GRADIENT CAN BE EXPECTED IN TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WITH FURTHER REFINEMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND HIGHEST POP LOCATION
IN COMING DAYS. THE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORT AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO
RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
GETTING A BUMP WARMER AS MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST AR THIS MORNING. PATCHY LIGHT FOG OR MVFR CIGS MAY TRY
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SE OK OR W AR, SO KEPT A
TEMPO MENTION AT KMLC, KFYV, KXNA, KROG, AND KFSM THROUGH AROUND
14Z/8AM. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL GUST 15-20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, AFTER 14Z, VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SCT TO BKN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 42 78 48 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 76 43 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 76 43 78 49 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 70 35 78 42 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 71 38 75 45 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 67 40 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 73 42 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 67 40 75 48 / 0 0 0 10
F10 73 43 78 50 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 76 46 75 48 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...67
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