169
FXUS64 KTSA 181735
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1235 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1119 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- WINDY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LIMITED SEVERE RISK.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY MORNING INTO NE OK
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEST LIFT WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS, PARTICULARLY IN FAR NORTHEAST
OK AND NORTHWEST AR. THESE STORMS WILL MOSTLY STAY SUB SEVERE, BUT
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. A
FEW CAMS SUGGEST STORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE DRY LINE IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA, THOUGH THIS REMAINS THE LESS LIKELY OUTCOME. IF THESE
DRY LINE STORMS DID DEVELOP, THESE STORMS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE SEVERE. OTHERWISE, WARM, HUMID, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST OK. CAMS DISAGREE ON THE STORM DETAILS, BUT THE MOST
PROBABLE OUTCOME IS FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO BE PRESENT ALONG THE
FRONT. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA. THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS FOR
THIS, INCLUDING RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND WEAK FLOW.
STILL, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADIC SPIN UP, PARTICULARLY AS STORMS FIRST ENTER
FROM KANSAS. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR AS THE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
NEAR DAWN ON TUESDAY THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST OK, CONTINUING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE, BUT
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS, WITH A LESSER TORNADO THREAT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COOL WITH MUCH DRIER AIR.
MOST GUIDANCE IS PRODUCING A RENEWAL OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF I-40 TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR ALONG AN
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER THE AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
COOL AND QUIET OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING FOR SOUTHEAST
OK AND NORTHWEST AR. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 60S IN SOME SPOTS. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 60S AND UPPER 50S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, INTERACTING WITH SOME REMNANT TROUGHING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MODEST BUT SUSTAINED
FORCING, HIGH PWAT, AND A DEEP LAYER OF MINIMAL CAPE, THIS WILL BE A
GOOD SETUP FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE RAIN, WITH ONLY MINIMAL
SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IT GETS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN, AS MODELS AREN'T CONFIDENT ON WHETHER WE GET A SHORT TERM
BREAK AND WARM UP AND DRY OUT A BIT, OR IF THE REMNANT SOUTHWEST
TROUGHING WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING. EITHER WAY, IF THERE IS A
BREAK, IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ANOTHER STORM CYCLE LIKELY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, IT APPEARS SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER WILL BE HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
CEILINGS ARE LIFTING ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS AND SHOULD BECOME ALL
VFR WITHIN THE HOUR. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER NW AR, BUT
MINIMAL IF ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NE OK AND INTO SE OK AND NW
AR FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STORMS
COULD BRING STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBY AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED. NORTHERLY WINDS AND
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NE OK
SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 67 75 58 71 / 60 70 80 40
FSM 72 84 65 80 / 10 90 70 70
MLC 73 82 61 77 / 10 100 70 50
BVO 61 71 53 69 / 80 40 60 20
FYV 72 80 60 74 / 20 90 80 60
BYV 72 81 59 70 / 20 90 90 60
MKO 71 78 59 73 / 20 90 70 50
MIO 67 74 56 68 / 60 80 70 30
F10 70 78 58 73 / 20 80 70 50
HHW 73 81 65 79 / 10 90 60 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055>064-067-154-
254-354.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04
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