964
FXUS64 KTSA 221746
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1134 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- LOCALLY ENHANCED GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD RATES POSSIBLE NORTHWEST
OF I-44 FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION
TODAY, PROVIDING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PERSIST TODAY, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON, AND FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S OR UPPER 40S TONIGHT. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST WITH LOW
IMPACT WEATHER LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NE OK ON FRIDAY, WHERE LIMITED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE HIGHER FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NW OF I-44, AND WITH MIN
RHS IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE, LOCALLY ENHANCED GRASSLAND FIRE
SPREAD RATES ARE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 80
DEGREES.
BY LATE SUNDAY, A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO NAVIGATE E-NE
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE C PLAINS
MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE INCREASING PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. SOME OF
THIS MAY MOVE INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF E OK MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT
POPS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. MODELS
DIVERGE BEYOND THIS POINT AND DISAGREE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND HELP TO CLEAR
THINGS OUT, WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH.
THE LATEST NBM SEEMS TO FAVOR THE FORMER AND BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. DESPITE HIGHER VARIABILITY
EARLY IN THE WEEK, GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE C/N PLAINS
WED-THU. THIS WOULD LIKELY SEND A STRONGER FRONT INTO OUR AREA
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN POTENTIAL AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF HAVING SHORT PERIODS OF VISIBILITY REDUCTION AT RVS ONCE
AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW GIVEN LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY AT
THE E OK TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 53 80 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 53 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 52 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 48 79 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 49 81 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 52 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 53 81 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 52 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
F10 53 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 53 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22
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