738
FXUS64 KTSA 311733
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES.
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER MIDWEEK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP 100 DEGREES AT A
FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S.
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
TOO LOW TO MENTION THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL AGAIN TOP OUT OVER 100 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, AND MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS
MAINLY MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
WILL BOTH LOWER SLIGHTLY TUESDAY, WITH EVEN COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVING IN BY WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN TO DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY JUNE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR
ALL SITES. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR, BUT POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTS AT ANY ONE SITE REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. SOUTH WINDS PERSIST TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, BUT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NE OK MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR/BEHIND THE
FRONT AND VEER WINDS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 95 71 90 / 10 10 20 10
FSM 73 95 72 91 / 0 10 20 10
MLC 74 95 72 93 / 0 10 10 10
BVO 71 93 67 89 / 10 10 20 10
FYV 71 92 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
BYV 70 90 67 83 / 10 10 10 0
MKO 73 94 71 91 / 0 10 20 10
MIO 72 92 69 87 / 10 10 10 10
F10 73 95 70 91 / 0 10 10 10
HHW 73 94 73 94 / 0 10 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43
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