799
FXUS64 KTSA 062338
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
- HEADLINE-WORTHY HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. SOME RELIEF IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
- AFTERNOON RAIN/STORM CHANCES HAVE TRENDED UPWARD TODAY, WITH
SOME LOW CHANCES PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
- LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE
TO THE WORSENING DROUGHT.
- LATE WEEK RAIN/STORM CHANCES HAVE ALSO TRENDED UPWARD, WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT A FRONT WILL MAKE A GOOD SOUTHWARD
PUSH INTO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
A FAIRLY STAGNANT UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
CONUS, CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING OVER THE PAC NW AND NORTHEAST,
AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE
SURFACE, A BACK DOOR FRONT ARCS SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE CAMS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE DEEP-LAYER
MOIST PLUME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
FAR EASTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST AR. STORMS HAVE STARTED IN THE
TERRAIN AND WILL THEN WORK THEIR WAY WEST AND SOUTH FROM THERE ON
THE EAST SIDE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE MODEL BLEND (NBM) HAS
FINALLY CAUGHT UP TO THIS SCENARIO, AND THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED
JUST TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS, WITH
AN ISOLATED SEVERE WET MICROBURST POSSIBLE, AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CAMS ALSO
SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
MONDAY AS WELL. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY WITH UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE, BUT WILL HIT THE MORE CONFIDENT AREAS
(OZARKS, SE OK) WITH MENTIONABLE POPS.
AS FAR AS THE HEAT IS CONCERNED, FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 100S COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY YIELD NEARLY AREAWIDE
HEADLINES THROUGH MONDAY.
LACY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AND WILL PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (AT 500MB). HEADLINE-
WORTHY HEAT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME HINT OF
AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN OK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A FRONT OVER KS, SO THAT
COULD ADD A FEW DEGREES TO AN ALREADY HOT FORECAST ACROSS NE OK.
NOW TO THE GOOD NEWS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN QUICKLY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. BOTH THE
GFS AND EC DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE KS FRONT,
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
MODEL BLEND POPS (NBM) HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH,
DEFINITELY A GOOD SIGN WHEN YOU ARE IN A DROUGHT. THE OUTFLOW-
REINFORCED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GOOD SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY, KNOCKING TEMPS BACK A BIT. IN FACT, THE NEW
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAS HIGHS BELOW 100 AREAWIDE.
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE BOUNDARY
RETREATS BACK NORTH AHEAD OF WHAT COULD BE A STRONGER SYSTEM AND
COLD FRONT THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THERE ARE AT LEAST SIGNS IN THE
MODELS THAT FALL IS COMING. STAY TUNED.
LACY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT BEGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING, WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OVER AT THIS
POINT. AIR MASS OVER NWRN AR SITES HAS BEEN WORKED OVER, AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES HAVE PUSHED THROUGH NERN OK SITES. MOST, IF NOT ALL,
CONVECTION SHOULD END BY 02Z AREAWIDE, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED SOME LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT AT FYV,
WITH EARLIER RAINFALL IN THAT AREA PROMOTING FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS PROBABLE SERN OK AND NWRN AR MONDAY AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY, AND CARRIED PROB30
GROUPS THOSE SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 78 101 80 102 / 10 10 0 10
FSM 76 103 74 104 / 20 10 0 10
MLC 77 102 77 102 / 20 20 0 10
BVO 72 102 74 103 / 10 10 0 10
FYV 72 101 72 101 / 20 20 0 10
BYV 72 98 71 100 / 20 20 0 10
MKO 75 101 75 101 / 20 10 0 10
MIO 74 100 75 101 / 10 10 10 10
F10 75 101 75 101 / 10 20 0 10
HHW 76 99 75 99 / 20 20 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
119-120-229.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
129-219-220-229.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-
220.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...69
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