414
FXUS64 KTSA 120415
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1015 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1015 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
- OVERALL QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
BACK NEAR NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE AS TEMPS CLIMB AND WINDS INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONCERNS WILL REMAIN RAISED ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND A
LIGHT SOUTH WIND HAS ALREADY RETURNED TO NE OK. THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON MONDAY
WHILE THE LLTR EXPANDS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. WHILE SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUD WILL BE OBSERVED, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH, IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
THE FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, I.E. CONSMOS AND THE 75TH AND 90TH %ILE OF THE
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SPREAD. SO AFTER A RATHER COOL DAY TODAY WITH
HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER
OF 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LACY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE STEADY WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, AS THE LLTR
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN CONTINUED
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. CLOUD COVER AGAIN DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE A
FACTOR, SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMEST END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO TOUCH RECORDS, HIGHS IN SOME PLACES
ARE LIKELY TO TOUCH 70.
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED POSITIVE PNA PATTERN, CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE COUNTRY, IS FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ON INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. TWO NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE BROADER PARENT TROUGH OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
THE FIRST WAVE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE 18Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO GRAZE FAR NE
OK INTO NW AR TUESDAY NIGHT, AND A WEAK SIGNAL ALSO SHOWS UP IN
ENSEMBLE DATA. THE MODEL BLEND CONTINUES WITH NON-MENTIONABLE POPS,
THOUGH THEY HAVE TRENDED UP A BIT. WILL INSERT SPRINKLE MENTION IN
THE GRIDS FOR NOW, WITH THE IDEA THAT POPS COULD INCREASE TO
MENTIONABLE IN FUTURE UPDATES. REGARDLESS, AMOUNTS WOULD BE PRETTY
MINIMAL GIVEN A LACK OF RICHER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT WILL BE MUCH
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY NEXT SATURDAY, BRINGING
WITH IT A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS EITHER
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
LACY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 923 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
WITH SOME MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND WILL THEN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 31 64 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 27 62 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 28 64 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 26 64 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 27 59 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 29 59 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 28 63 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 29 59 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
F10 30 65 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 29 60 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06
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