462
FXUS64 KTSA 291741
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK,
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ONGOING LATE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AT THE MOMENT COMPARED TO THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY, WITH
PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SEEING DEW POINTS
25 TO 30 DEGREES HIGHER. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO HIGHER
TODAY, THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SERVE AS A CHECK ON THE
OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS. OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES CONTINUE TO HAVE THE MOST
CONCERNING COMBINATION OF WINDS, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND FUELS,
WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE SPREAD RATES THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXISTING
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT BE UPDATED OR
CHANGED. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP SOME AND THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN SEEN LAST NIGHT,
DROPPING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
FIRE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN TOMORROW AND ANOTHER FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, AND EVEN STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS TOMORROW ARE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL, AND PROBABILISTIC DATA FROM BOTH THE HREF AND THE
NBM SHOW LOW PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH. OUTSIDE OF
OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES, WHERE AGAIN, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDITIES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30 PERCENT, THE MOISTURE PRESENT WILL
SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
FIRE SPREAD RATES ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 ARE ON
THE UPPER END OF THE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS. CONTINUED STRONG AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, ALONG WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WILL FUEL NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE SPREAD RATES ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, IN ADDITION TO HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT STILL SHOULD BE WARRANTED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING,
STALLING FOR A TIME, BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT, BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT HOW MUCH
REMAINS IN QUESTION. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS, THE NBM SPREADS HIGHER
POPS TOO FAR SOUTHEAST, TOO QUICKLY, WITH CHANGES DURING THIS
PERIOD MAINLY TO DECREASE POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD AND
ROBUST DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
AT LEAST A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST, MAINLY
WEDNESDAY, GIVEN THE FORECAST INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE
WEEK, CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES IS ON DECK FOR FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FEATURING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SET
FOR SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE BACKING OFF SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. A LLJ WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR ALL SITES. A FEW
AREAS OF LOWER LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE OK AND
NW AR, BUT LOWERED CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 80 63 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 81 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 81 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 81 58 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 77 59 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 75 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 79 61 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 77 61 84 65 / 0 0 0 0
F10 80 62 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 80 59 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...30
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