288
FXUS64 KTSA 101135
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 533 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
- LOW CHANCE (20% OR LESS) OF LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT. COULD MIX
WITH SOME FLURRIES NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INTERSECT LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM A COLD
FRONT, ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWERS NORTH OF I-40. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE KS BORDER, WHERE A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY
ALSO MIX IN AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED, HOWEVER. WE MAY ALSO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND INTO WESTERN AR AS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIFTED
NORTH OUT OF TX AND INTERACTS WITH PASSING WAVE. ANY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 30S, COOLEST IN NORTHEAST OK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND 30S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA, WARM
AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 60S FOR MONDAY TO TUESDAY. WENT A BIT ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE INTO MID WEEK,
SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THIS OCCURS, MUCH COOLER AIR
WILL SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN USA. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ONLY BE
A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SO TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
NEAR NORMAL. A SMALL SUBSET OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PRODUCES A FEW
SHOWERS, BUT MOST MEMBERS ARE DRY. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NNW
FLOW AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN. A BRIEF RETURN TO WARMER
WEATHER MAY OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF COOL
AIR OVER THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION APPEARS VERY LIMITED TO NON
EXISTENT FOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CLEAR OUT AT ALL SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING
THE DAY TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 51 28 47 32 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 54 30 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 53 30 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 50 25 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 49 25 47 28 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 49 27 44 30 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 51 28 48 30 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 50 26 44 30 / 0 0 0 0
F10 51 29 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 53 31 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05
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