469  
FXUS64 KTSA 090510  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
1210 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT  
WEEK. THE ONE DRIER DAY WILL BE THURSDAY.  
 
- MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THE  
PRIMARY THREAT.  
 
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL CREEP UP INTO THE 95-105F RANGE  
EACH OF THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN YESTERDAY WILL SLIDE  
SOUTH AND EAST FOR TODAY, WITH THE FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL. STILL, HOT  
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY STILL LEAD TO  
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. STORMS SHOULD SHOW LESS ORGANIZATION TODAY AS ANY MID  
LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS ALOFT, BUT SOME DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS WILL STILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO TAKE A TICK UPWARD TODAY WITH MORE  
PREVALENT SUNSHINE, WITH ANY REPRIEVE FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS  
BEING SPOTTY AT BEST. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM  
95-105 ACROSS THE REGION, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS MAKING IT FEEL  
RATHER MUGGY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
BOWLAN  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY  
WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS HIGHS CREEP  
INTO THE MID 90S. CONTINUED HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAT  
INDICES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE BOTH AFTERNOONS, WITH HEAT  
HEADLINES POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME  
OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH COULD HELP OFFSET SOME OF THE HEAT STRESS.  
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH AN  
ISOLATED STORM COULD STILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IF AIDED BY SOME  
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS OR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  
 
THE BREAK IN STORMY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AS TROUGHING  
ENHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE  
WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES MOVING CLOSE BY WILL PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY  
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INCREASING  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE  
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING, ALONG WITH  
SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. OVERALL, THE SEVERE WEATHER  
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE  
PERIOD LIMITING MUCH ORGANIZATION. NEARBY TROUGHING AND A CONTINUED  
TRAIN OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL KEEP  
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST INTO  
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF RAIN  
WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE MOST PART, WITH HIGHS  
INTO NEXT WEEK STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 80S OR LOWER 90S AND LOWS  
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  
 
BOWLAN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
REDUCED VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING TO JUST PAST SUNRISE  
REMAIN A GOOD BET GIVEN ALL OF THE RAIN SEEN YESTERDAY. EXPECT  
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS MAINLY AT THE W AR  
SITES, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT TIMES. MVFR  
VISIBILITY MENTION WILL BE CONTINUED AT THE E OK SITES.  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN SEEN YESTERDAY AND  
ISOLATED TO THE W AR TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN THE PROB30'S AT  
THOSE 4 SITES, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING HAS BEEN SHIFTED BACKWARD 3  
HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS SET.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 93 73 94 77 / 10 10 0 0  
FSM 93 74 95 76 / 20 20 10 0  
MLC 92 73 93 75 / 10 0 0 0  
BVO 92 70 94 73 / 10 10 0 0  
FYV 90 70 92 72 / 20 20 0 0  
BYV 90 69 91 73 / 20 20 10 0  
MKO 91 72 93 75 / 10 10 0 0  
MIO 91 71 93 75 / 20 10 0 0  
F10 91 72 93 75 / 10 10 0 0  
HHW 90 72 93 74 / 20 20 10 0  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...04  
LONG TERM....04  
AVIATION...22  
 
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