030
FXUS64 KTSA 150509
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
- LOW DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HEAT HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR MANY LOCATIONS EACH DAY.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
LATER NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
THE HEAT WILL INTENSIFY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 102 TO 110. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION REMAINS
POSSIBLE FROM FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS, BUT MOST
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EACH DAY. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY, MAINLY
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS, BUT PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LOW.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE SOME AT THAT TIME, AND EXPAND IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
LIKELY COOL A FEW DEGREES, BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
NEAR PERSISTENT DAILY TRENDS WILL CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAINING TOO LOW TO
WARRANT MENTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 98 78 98 78 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 99 77 99 76 / 20 0 10 0
MLC 97 76 96 75 / 0 0 10 0
BVO 98 73 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 96 72 95 72 / 10 0 10 10
BYV 96 73 96 73 / 10 0 10 10
MKO 98 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 97 75 97 75 / 0 0 10 0
F10 98 75 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 95 75 95 75 / 10 0 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ049-053>068-070>076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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