972
FXUS64 KTSA 291801
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
101 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 101 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
- HEADLINE WORTHY HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES OF 105-115F. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AS WELL.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- A COOL FRONT WILL BRING MORE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
H5-H25 RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TODAY JUST TO OUR WEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. A WEAK WAVE IS IN THE RAP/HRRR
ANALYSIS OVER WESTERN KS, LIKELY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST IS DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHEAST BACK TO CENTRAL AR AND THEN
NORTHEAST OK WHERE IT BECOMES MORE STATIONARY. HEAT INDEX READINGS
AS OF NOON ARE ALREADY MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE GOING HEAT
HEADLINES FOR TODAY WILL BE CARRIED FORWARD WITH NO CHANGES.
THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE,
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. SLOW-MOVING STORMS IN THE HIGH PWAT
ENVIRONMENT COULD DROP POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS
HINTED IN THE 1-2" SPOTS IN THE HRRR QPF DATA. MODELS NOW SUGGEST
MORE OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT, UNLIKE THE
DATA SHOWED YESTERDAY. DATA IS SHOWING MORE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KS
INSTEAD, POSSIBLY FROM THE WESTERN KS WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY TRY TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING.
LACY
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
SCATTERED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
KS THURSDAY MORNING WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK
AND NORTHWEST AR. BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
REBOUND. WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND THE HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT, FORECAST
HEAT INDICES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GET CLOSE
TO WARNING LEVELS, BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT IRON THOSE DETAILS
OUT ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH CLOUD COVER. EXPECT MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT
OVER FAR EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR, WHICH WILL BE ORIENTED MORE SOUTH
TO NORTH BY THIS TIME AS THE RIDGE ALOFT TO OUR WEST HOLDS STRONG
AND MAY EVEN STRENGTHEN A BIT WITH SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES
INDICATED IN THE DATA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV MAX NOTED IN RAP ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY
OVER CA AND THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE RIDGE AND THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, STRENGTHENING AS IT HEADS EQUATORWARD. THE LATEST CAMS
SHOW A LARGE MCS ORGANIZING WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY
DROPPING DOWN INTO NORTHEAST OK BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE
COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH AT LEAST A FEW STORMS LIKELY TO FOCUS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, FORECAST HIGHS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WEST-
CENTRAL AR. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AS WELL, BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT FOR THIS STRETCH.
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST OF
AUGUST AND LOWER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGING IS STILL IN PLACE
INTO MONDAY BEFORE SOUTH WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAKE A RETURN
BY MIDWEEK.
LACY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SITES. MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE AREA. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD WANE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
OVER MOSTLY THE SAME LOCATIONS. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 78 97 79 99 / 20 20 30 30
FSM 77 95 77 99 / 30 30 10 10
MLC 79 98 79 101 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 75 96 74 99 / 30 20 40 30
FYV 73 90 73 93 / 30 50 10 20
BYV 72 90 72 93 / 30 50 20 30
MKO 76 95 76 98 / 20 20 10 20
MIO 74 92 75 95 / 30 30 40 30
F10 76 98 76 100 / 10 10 10 20
HHW 77 96 77 98 / 10 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ058-059-063-068-
069-154-172.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-
055>057-060>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-176-254-272-276-354-
376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220-229.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220-
229.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04
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