429
FXUS64 KTSA 162247
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
547 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 542 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- ANOTHER HARD FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A SHARP WARMING TREND STARTS TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY
MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
YIELDING LOW HUMIDITY, WILL YIELD ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD. THE
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL FAVOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. FAVORED THE BOTTOM QUARTILE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS, EXPECTING ANOTHER HARD FREEZE AREAWIDE.
LACY
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WILL YIELD A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND A RETURN OF
GUSTY WINDS, THIS TIME OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. WARMER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH THICKNESSES RISING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE WIND AND COLD TO THE
REGION. THE WARMER TEMPS AND DRY AIR THAT REMAINS IN PLACE WILL
YIELD ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF LOW HUMIDITY AND ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
A STRENGTHENING W/SW LLJ TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION
ALONG THE NW FLOW BAROCLINIC ZONE KEPT IN PLACE BY A PASSING WAVE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE CAMS AND EC SHOW SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE INSERTED SPRINKLES OR SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS. RAINFALL, IF ANY, WOULD BE A TRACE OR VERY LIGHT AT BEST.
AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEK. DEEP LAYER THICKNESSES RISE, AND THUS SO
WILL TEMPERATURES. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, SO THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TAKE A STEADY CLIMB UPWARD, REACHING NEAR 90
BY FRIDAY. SO IN THIS WEEK ALONE, WE START WITH A RECORD LOW OF 20
AT TULSA AND COULD FINISH THE WEEK NEAR A RECORD HIGH AT 90.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK BLEAK FOR THE TIME BEING.
LACY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 24 62 46 78 / 0 10 10 0
FSM 23 58 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 24 60 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 18 62 42 78 / 0 10 20 0
FYV 16 52 40 72 / 0 10 10 0
BYV 18 51 43 69 / 0 10 10 0
MKO 21 59 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 18 55 43 72 / 0 10 10 0
F10 23 61 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 25 59 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43
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