145
FXUS64 KTSA 030531
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1231 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NEARBY WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL TREND UNSEASONABLY
WARM NEXT WEEK.
- NO RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SUBTLE LIFT BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL JET SEGMENT WILL CONTINUE
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS TONIGHT. THIS
PATTERN WILL SHIFT A LITTLE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS THE TAIL OF
A STRONG SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE AREA. SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SHIFTS A BIT NORTH AS WELL FOR A BRIEF WINDOW. THAT PATTERN
WILL BREAK DOWN LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES SOUTHEAST.
PLEASANT FALL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG SYSTEM
ALOFT MOVES ON SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROMOTE
DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO ALL OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO FRIDAY AS FASTER FLOW ALOFT
STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
WILL EXPAND A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE COMING WEEK AND ENCOURAGE A
WARM UP WITH TIME IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
MVFR TO LOCALLY, IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY DURING THE PERIOD AT ALL
SITES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES ALSO AT MLC AND
FSM WITH INCREASING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK.
CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH
ONLY MLC HANGING ONTO REDUCED CEILING CATEGORIES THE ENTIRE TIME.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 80 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 63 86 58 84 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 61 85 57 84 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 56 79 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 56 81 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 57 80 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 59 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 56 77 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
F10 58 82 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 63 86 59 86 / 10 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...22
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