083  
FXUS64 KTSA 101132  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
632 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
- INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL AID IN  
LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG  
AND NORTH OF I-44.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
ANOTHER UNEVENTFUL NIGHT WEATHER-WISE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND  
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED  
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY,  
BUT A FAST-MOVING VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF  
THE RIDGE LATER TODAY. ALL CAM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN  
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXPANDING TO OUR  
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING, SOME OF WHICH MAY CLIP FAR NORTHEAST OK  
AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST AR THIS AFTERNOON. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
OBSERVED WILL BE VERY LIGHT. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER  
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TAKE  
PLACE THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO RESPOND TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN  
THE WEST RESULTING IN LEE SIDE PRESSURE FALLS. THIS WILL  
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS GUSTING FROM 20-30 MPH  
WILL BECOME FAIRLY COMMON. COUPLED WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING TO THE 25-35% RANGE, FIRE  
SPREAD POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE, MOST NOTABLY IN AREAS WEST OF  
HIGHWAY 75 IN NORTHEAST OK WHERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING  
TO DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT AT LEAST, ERC VALUES REMAIN BELOW  
CONCERNING LEVELS.  
 
BY MONDAY A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AND  
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, IN EFFECT SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE AS  
WELL AS DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST  
AREA. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PICKED UP FROM THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC AS WELL, RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS  
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE  
BOUNDARY WILL ULTIMATELY MAKES IT SO FOR NOW, PRECIP CHANCES WILL  
REMAIN IN THE 20-40% RANGE NW OF I-44.  
 
PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN OF STRONG UPPER RIDGING TO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY  
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, IF NOT  
LONGER.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS  
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY WITH A  
DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MISSOURI. A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER EXISTS OVER MAINLY FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS  
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.  
HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED EXPECTED COVERAGE/IMPACTS TO TERMINALS WILL  
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
TONIGHT, SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS  
THE CWA. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST, WHILE MORE VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FAR  
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
TUL 87 63 88 64 / 0 0 0 0  
FSM 83 62 86 62 / 0 10 0 0  
MLC 85 59 87 62 / 0 0 0 0  
BVO 87 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0  
FYV 82 58 83 58 / 0 10 0 0  
BYV 80 60 82 59 / 10 10 0 0  
MKO 84 62 86 62 / 0 0 0 0  
MIO 82 61 83 62 / 10 10 0 0  
F10 86 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0  
HHW 82 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...14  
LONG TERM....14  
AVIATION...20  
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