178
FXUS64 KTSA 142327
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
527 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 522 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS BEHIND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES.
- SEVERAL MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY NEAR CRITICAL GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD RATES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, ALL IN COMBINATION WITH THE PERSISTENTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY, GIVEN MULTIPLE OKLAHOMA MESONET AND ASOS SITES RECORDING
NEAR TO ABOVE 40 MPH GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
APPROACHES, WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURNING TO
PARTS OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WITH GOOD RADIATING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER,
INCLUDING SOME TEENS IN PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
WITH CONSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT, DRY COLD FRONTS REMAIN
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH
GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS SIGNALING AN UPTICK IN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FRIDAY REMAINS LIKELY TO BE ONE OF THESE HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER DAYS, FOLLOWING A THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. NEAR
CRITICAL GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD RATES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WEST
OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THE FUEL STATES, A RED
FLAG WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY ONE, SET TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, CONTINUED LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AREAWIDE AND LOCALLY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE WEEKEND, DESPITE A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY.
YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, WITH SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW
MUCH OF IT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS OPPOSED TO A GLANCING BLOW
TO THE NORTHEAST.
ONCE WE GET TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD, WHICH WOULD SIGNAL WARMER
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOR ALL SITES. BREEZY NNW WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT THURSDAY MORNING,
BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20 KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST TONIGHT, BEFORE
FEW TO SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 24 54 35 51 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 24 51 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 24 54 36 54 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 20 53 31 49 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 19 48 31 49 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 20 45 33 47 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 22 52 34 52 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 20 48 32 47 / 0 0 0 0
F10 24 55 36 53 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 25 53 36 55 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ054>072.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43
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