583
FXUS64 KTSA 202324
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
- MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THE NEOSHO RIVER NEAR COMMERCE.
- LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED STARTING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS DRY MID-LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW OVERSPREADING THE PLAINS, DOWNSTREAM FROM A
SYNOPTIC RIDGE AXIS THAT IS STRADDLED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER FROM
SOUTHERN CA AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TX AND INTO SOUTHERN OK BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM TX INTO OK, AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WEAK WAVE. THIS WILL REALLY HELP DRAW-IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN OK BY THE TAIL-END OF THE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED
RIVER BEFORE SUNRISE, THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE AND AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AND IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OK AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD AS THE SUBTLE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-50%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD SOME
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, WITH MAJORITY OF THE RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF
I-40, THOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS
HIGHWAY 412 DURING THE DAYTIME. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AND THUNDER
CHANCES MAY BE CONFINED AND LIMITED TO ALONG OR EVEN SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OK FOR NOW. LOW (20-30%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL STAY
LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OK
EXPECTED.
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY, WITH
A DRYLINE THAT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KS AND INTO WESTERN/WEST-
CENTRAL OK BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THIS REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW ALL OF
THIS WILL EVOLVE. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES OFF AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE AS THEY MOVE TOWARD EASTERN OK. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLUSTER AND BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH THE STORMS PUSHING SOUTH AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER AND
SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS IN THE VICINITY. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
THIS STORM SYSTEM. THE FRONT REMAINS IN THE AREA INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL, WITH SEVERE AND FLOODING POTENTIAL LIKELY REMAINING POSSIBLE
AS WELL. BETTER DETAILS TO COME IN FUTURE UPDATES. DESPITE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH LATER
THIS WEEK, TEMPERATURES STAY AROUND TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE
THROUGH THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES. LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPANDING ACROSS E OK LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL ACROSS SE OK.
ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE INDICATES VSBYS WILL FALL OVER TIME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE OK. SOUTH WINDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING BREEZY AGAIN MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 52 71 55 74 / 0 10 10 10
FSM 49 74 55 76 / 0 20 20 20
MLC 51 67 55 75 / 10 40 20 20
BVO 49 73 52 74 / 0 10 0 0
FYV 49 74 52 73 / 0 10 10 20
BYV 51 73 53 73 / 0 10 10 10
MKO 50 68 54 73 / 0 20 20 20
MIO 51 71 55 72 / 0 10 0 10
F10 50 67 54 73 / 10 30 20 20
HHW 51 63 54 73 / 10 50 30 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43
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