720
FXUS64 KTSA 131727
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH/RIVER FLOODING ARE
LIKELY.
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON.
- OVERALL COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER RETURNS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
EARLIER STORM ACTIVITY LEFT A WAKE OF COOLER AND STABLE AIR ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT A SURGE OF WARM AND HUMID AIR IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTH
AND SCOURING OUT THE COOLER AIR. IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM THAT
WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOPING, WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
ONE POTENTIALLY INTERESTING FORECAST WRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
A SUBTLE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, EVIDENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CAMS HAVE OFF AND ON SUGGESTED A FEW
STORMS MAY POP NEAR AND NORTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
THIS FEATURE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITH THAT SAID, IF STORMS DID
FORM, THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN HUGE INSTABILITY THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. HAIL WOULD BE THE DOMINANT THREAT.
OTHERWISE, WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
BY LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK
WITH THE TROUGH WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH, BUT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. VERY
LARGE INSTABILITY WILL HELP STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
FRONT, BUT LINE PARALLEL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE QUICK UPSCALE GROWTH.
ACCORDINGLY, A LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN, WITH STRONG WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT, WITH A SPIN UP TORNADO OR LARGE HAIL BEING
SECONDARY CONCERNS. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ELEVATED
ATMOSPHERIC WATER CONTENT ACROSS THE AREA. A WIDESPREAD 1-3
INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SUCH HEAVY TOTALS,
ALONG WITH RECENT RAINS, WILL PROMOTE A FLOOD RISK ALONG AREA
RIVERS AND IN ANY LOCATION THAT SEES THE HIGHER RAIN RATES. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWITCH TO JUST SHOWERS NORTH OF I-40
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, FOCUSING
SOUTH OF I-40. A RELATIVELY COOL NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BRIEFLY DROP AS
CONDITIONS DRY OUT. A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN REACH THE UPPER 50S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND MID WEEK WITH A TEMPORARY RESURGENCE OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. BY THIS
POINT, A STRONG TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES LAKES REGION WILL HELP
TO STRENGTHEN THE FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN EJECTING
TROUGH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THE RESULT WILL BE A RESURGENCE OF RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES, CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS STRETCH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THE DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF
SITES. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME CHANCE
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BRING A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL TAF SITES, WITH
A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWING THE STORMS. MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM COMPLEX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 69 76 61 79 / 90 20 0 0
FSM 73 83 66 81 / 90 50 20 10
MLC 72 80 65 79 / 90 60 20 10
BVO 66 76 57 79 / 100 10 10 0
FYV 69 78 58 79 / 90 40 0 0
BYV 67 76 57 78 / 90 30 0 0
MKO 70 77 61 78 / 90 40 10 0
MIO 66 76 57 79 / 100 10 0 0
F10 69 77 61 78 / 90 40 20 0
HHW 74 83 68 79 / 60 70 50 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OKZ055>058-061>063-067>069.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055-056-059>061-
064-067-154-254-354.
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...08
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