133
FXUS64 KTSA 210532
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1232 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY EVENING, BUT DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO LAG WELL TO THE NORTH
AND WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE COOLER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES, ALTHOUGH MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVERALL FOR THE
WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNTIL LATE WEEK, WHEN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN, ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
BROKEN/OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT. ALSO, LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT, CLOUD COVER BECOMES MORE
SCATTERED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING MONDAY
BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WILL CARRY TEMPO GROUP FOR TIMING OF GREATER
MVFR POTENTIAL. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OUT VARIABLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 84 65 84 62 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 92 70 91 66 / 20 0 10 0
MLC 90 67 90 65 / 20 0 0 0
BVO 83 61 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 85 62 84 56 / 20 10 10 0
BYV 86 65 83 58 / 30 10 20 0
MKO 87 64 88 62 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 82 61 82 57 / 10 0 0 0
F10 88 64 88 61 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 94 69 94 68 / 30 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20
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