165
FXUS64 KTSA 082338
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- TEMPS NEAR MID MAY NORMALS FORECAST NEXT WEEK W/ LOW RAIN
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING FAR NW OK AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
BECOMING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON INCREASING STORM COVERAGE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST PROFILES MAINTAIN A DRIER SUBCLOUD LAYER AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS MEAGER WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT
REMAINS NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL FAVOR
SUPERCELLS WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH EFFICIENT STORM SPLITS
LIKELY LEADING TO MULTIPLE CELL INTERACTIONS WITH TIME. THE
INITIAL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH A TRANSITION TO BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
BECOMING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE CONFINED WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE HIGH VALUE CORRIDOR MORE FAVORED ACROSS E OK AND POINTS SOUTH
AND WESTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LESSER SEVERE RISK WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT WHILE ALSO ALLOWING A QUICK STABILIZATION TREND
AFTER SUNSET WHICH KEEPS THE SEVERE WEATHER CONFINED TO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE COMPOSITE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY PUSH THROUGH FAR SE OK BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
AND EXPANSION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. INITIAL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER WITH THIS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION WITH A LIMITED RISK HAIL RISK SATURDAY NIGHT. A
STRONGER WAVE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY. INCREASED FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE AND ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONT IS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN THE EARLY DAY CONVECTION WITH
THE STORMS SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRY AND MILD DAY MONDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWER AND STORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. THE PATTERN ALOFT MAY TREND TOWARD A MORE
UNSETTLED STATE BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AND MORE TYPICAL
OF MID MAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS DURING THE FIRST 3 TO 6 HOURS
OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD EXIST FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT BVO.
HIGHEST POTENTIAL IS TUL/RVS, WHERE TEMPOS WILL CONTINUE. PROB30S
INCLUDED AT MLC AND THE W AR SITES, WHERE IMPACTS ARE LESS CERTAIN
GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF A DECLINE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WITH TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH VISIBILITIES
LOCALLY TO A MILE, LOW CHANCE OF LESS THAN THAT, EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40. LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 55 84 62 71 / 40 0 80 60
FSM 58 86 61 77 / 40 0 50 80
MLC 58 86 64 75 / 60 0 70 90
BVO 49 84 57 70 / 20 0 70 50
FYV 53 84 59 73 / 60 0 50 70
BYV 54 82 58 70 / 60 0 40 70
MKO 55 83 61 72 / 70 0 70 80
MIO 52 81 58 68 / 50 0 50 50
F10 55 83 61 72 / 70 0 80 90
HHW 59 83 64 79 / 30 0 30 90
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22
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