112
FXUS64 KTSA 121743
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND TEMPERATURES TREND NEARER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH AT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BUILD BACK IN BY LATE WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RAIN
CHANCES SHIFTING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL. AN
EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING WEST TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
BY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT MORE
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A RETURN TO HOT AND DRY
WEATHER TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE MUCH OF THE SUMMER THUS FAR, THE NBM MAY BE A BIT TOO HOT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT IT WILL BE HOT
REGARDLESS, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK UP INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS IN MOST PLACES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KMLC AND, TO A
LESSER EXTENT, KFSM. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS NW AR, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE BY LATE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY FOCUSED TO AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER. OTHERWISE,
DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, PERHAPS BRIEFLY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS BEFORE LIFTING THIS
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
AND REDUCED VSBYS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS SE OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR. ASIDE FROM THESE FACTORS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIODS WITH LIGHT WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 73 93 72 93 / 0 10 10 10
MLC 70 91 70 91 / 10 20 10 20
BVO 66 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 66 90 65 90 / 0 10 0 10
BYV 67 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 70 91 69 91 / 0 10 0 10
MIO 68 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
F10 70 90 68 90 / 0 10 0 20
HHW 71 90 69 90 / 50 20 20 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43
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