466
FXUS64 KTSA 040540
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1240 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR
BEFORE EXITING SUNDAY MORNING.
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK TREND UNSEASONABLY WARM
BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
- NO RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 LATE SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. AS CLOUDS
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, THERE IS AT LEAST LOW
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN PORTIONS OF NW AR/NE OK,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ANY ONGOING PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
CONCLUDE SUNDAY MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL PERMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY...LIKELY NEAR OR GREATER THAN 80 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
OVERALL, LOW IMPACT WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR OR PERHAPS A TAD COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TUESDAY AS MODEST UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S BY LATE WEEK. LOW TEMPS
LIKELY END UP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS (LOWER-MID 50S) BUT INCREASE TO NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES
BY MID-LATE WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THOUGH SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OUT OF TX. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AS OF NOW, HOWEVER, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS ONLY LOW POPS (<10 PERCENT).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINS ACROSS ERN OK AND NWRN AR EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH LOW VFR CIGS NERN OK AND NWRN AR SITES, AND IFR/LIFR
MLC. MVFR VSBYS IN FOG MLC/NWRN AR SITES, WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE NERN OK
LATER THIS MORNING, AND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY BECOMES
NORTHERLY AT 10KT OR LESS DURING THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 82 56 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 85 59 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 85 58 84 52 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 81 51 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 81 53 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 80 54 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 83 56 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 79 53 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
F10 82 55 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 85 61 85 55 / 20 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...69
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