097
FXUS64 KTSA 211707
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1207 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NE OK AND FAR NW
AR THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING UPPER WAVE.
- ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WAS OBSERVED MOVING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AND
WAS PRODUCING ISOLATED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS NE
OK AND NW AR. WANING FORCING AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LIMIT MOST
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND, BUT A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES WAS RETAINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
DIVES EAST/SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
RANGE. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EAST AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD AS A TROUGH LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THEREAFTER, POTENTIALLY SENDING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND
(10-20 MPH) WHICH MAY LOCALLY INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF I-44 WHERE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, LOW-IMPACT, PLEASANT WEATHER IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSING MID
LEVEL WAVE FROM NE OK INTO FAR NW AR WITH NO AVIATION IMPACT
EXPECTED. MID CLOUD CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND
CONTINUED VFR FLIGHT LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 53 80 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 52 84 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 52 82 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 50 79 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 50 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 50 78 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 52 81 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 50 77 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
F10 52 81 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 52 83 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
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