640
FXUS64 KTSA 140501
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1201 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1153 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
- HEAT STRESS REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE
LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.
- WEAK COLD FRONT POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
- ANY COOLING WITH THE FRONT LIKELY OFFSET BY HIGHER DEWPOINTS
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
NEAR PERSISTENT FORECAST EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX
VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY SEVERAL
DEGREES DRIER THIS EVENING COMPARED TO 24HR PRIOR AND THIS SUBTLE
DRYING IS NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TX. UNCERTAIN
WHETHER THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, HOWEVER
BLENDED GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE AND HAS SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS YET RESULTANT HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY AND THE HEAT HEADLINES WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE
ONGOING DRY AND HOT WEATHER WITH GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOSTER LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. EXPECT THE
OCCURRENCE AND BEHAVIOR OF FIRE STARTS TO BOTH INCREASE WITH NO
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. FINALLY, THE CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NEARER NE OK
TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER BUT CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THAT THEY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO WARRANT MENTION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
NEAR PERSISTENCE LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
ATTEMPTS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO NE OK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND MAKE LITTLE TO NO PROGRESS
THROUGH MONDAY. ANY POST FRONTAL COOLING WILL BE MINIMAL AND
LIKELY OFFSET BY MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE END
RESULT BEING CONTINUED HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY. RIDGING ALOFT
STRENGTHENS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE BOUNDARY EITHER LIFTS
NORTHWARD OR BECOMES DIFFUSE AND A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD HOT AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK..
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS CONDITIONS
MAINLY AT THE NE OK SITES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, THEN WINDS
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY AT ALL SITES, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KTS. WINDS WILL BACK OFF AROUND SUNSET. SCT CU IS EXPECTED THE NW
AR AND POSSIBLY SE OK SITES DURING THE DAY, ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY
HIGH CLOUD.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 83 104 82 104 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 80 104 77 103 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 80 103 79 102 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 79 105 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 77 101 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 78 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 78 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 79 101 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
F10 78 103 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 78 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053-065-068-069-
071-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ055>064-066-
067-070-154-254-354.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ055>064-
066-067-070-154-254-354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
120-129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30
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