866
FXUS64 KTSA 282045
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
245 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 243 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
- WIDESPREAD RAIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
FLOODING POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT WINDS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER AZ WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION AS IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MID DAY
FRIDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP INTO SE OK BY EARLY WED AND
SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE DOWNSTREAM WARM
CONVEYOR STRENGTHENS. FORCING AND MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES WED
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAINS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND BE EAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING. WRAP AROUND LIGHT PRECIP IS LIKELY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY BE NOTED BEFORE PRECIP
ENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A RATHER LONG WINDOW
OF LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. THE
BULK OF GUIDANCE WOULD FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS LEADING TO FLOODING
POTENTIAL, HOWEVER THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED TO REFLECT THE MOST
LIKELY HEAVY RAIN CORRIDOR, HOWEVER AREAS FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO
FAR NW AR MAY ALSO BE IMPACTED AND LATER FORECASTS WILL ADJUST AS
NEEDED.
ONCE THE PRECIP ENDS A QUICK WARM UP IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO KMLC WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 35 54 45 59 / 0 20 90 90
FSM 38 59 48 61 / 0 20 90 100
MLC 41 56 50 62 / 0 50 100 90
BVO 29 56 41 57 / 0 20 80 80
FYV 35 62 46 59 / 0 20 90 100
BYV 37 60 45 57 / 0 0 80 100
MKO 38 54 47 60 / 0 30 90 90
MIO 32 58 44 57 / 0 10 80 90
F10 39 54 47 60 / 0 40 100 90
HHW 44 56 51 65 / 10 60 100 100
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OKZ049-053-072-074>076.
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...10
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