821
FXUS64 KTSA 182333
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
533 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 531 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
- TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH GUSTY WINDS STILL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLY.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, BRINGING
COLDER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TO SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR WEDNESDAY. A
PATTERN CHANGE MAY BRING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER BEGINNING NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, STILL MAKING IT FEEL RATHER CHILLY OUT THERE FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING, BRINGING A
RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WHILE WIND CHILL VALUES DROP
BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
ANOTHER COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THE DAY MONDAY THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS. MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FORM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S(NORTH) TO MID 30S(SOUTH). A LOBE OF MID
LEVEL VORTICITY WILL TRACK AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION, ALONG WITH A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME FLURRIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40. LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR WILL LIKELY LIMIT HOW MUCH REACHES THE GROUND, AND THUS NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND KICKS IN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. A RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY. BY THIS TIME, A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THEREFORE, MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, POSSIBLY
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AMOUNTS STILL SEEM FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES DON'T APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS COLD WITH THIS
FRONT AS THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR STAYS BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION.
SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AND MODEL CHANGES ARE
STILL PREVALENT AT THIS RANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO
BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED PUSH OF
COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA COULD LEAD TO SOME CHANCES FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. TIMING OF VARIOUS SYSTEMS
ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS IN LIMBO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE DETAILS
AS THESE DIFFERENCES COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT. NEVERTHELESS, NEXT
WEEKEND BARES WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS AND POSSIBLY
A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY, AND NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO
GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 23 31 19 50 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 24 35 18 52 / 0 10 0 0
MLC 25 37 14 53 / 0 10 0 0
BVO 19 31 14 50 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 19 30 13 48 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 19 28 15 47 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 23 31 16 50 / 0 10 0 0
MIO 18 29 17 47 / 0 0 0 0
F10 24 32 16 51 / 0 10 0 0
HHW 28 44 21 50 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05
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