964
FXUS64 KTSA 232254
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
554 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 554 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
- MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- MORE NEAR RECORD HEAT MID TO LATE WEEK, ALONG WITH INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, ANY
PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY TO AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A TRACE AND MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH TONIGHT, WITH LOWS
REMAINING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED
BY INTENSIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE S PLAINS. THIS
WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO
NEAR RECORD TERRITORY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (WIDESPREAD UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S). ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY, PROLONGING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGHEST FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHEN
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST AND RHS THE LOWEST. THIS COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, MAINLY FAR E OK AND NW AR, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST.
QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCE THE
REGION. BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, RIDGING SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH
INCREASING WESTERN US TROUGHING. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
INCREASING OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN HEADING INTO EARLY
APRIL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
LOW-END VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT CHANCES AND IMPACT
POTENTIAL IS LOW SO MENTION WAS LEFT OUT OF TAFS. CIGS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BE LARGELY BELOW IMPACTFUL LEVELS, AND
PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE EAST. MOST SITES WILL SEE A SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 50 72 54 89 / 10 10 0 0
FSM 49 70 50 89 / 10 10 0 0
MLC 51 74 57 88 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 44 72 49 89 / 10 10 0 0
FYV 45 67 50 84 / 10 10 0 0
BYV 45 67 48 84 / 10 10 0 0
MKO 50 71 52 87 / 10 10 0 0
MIO 47 69 51 85 / 10 10 0 0
F10 51 75 56 88 / 10 10 0 0
HHW 52 74 55 85 / 10 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30
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