355
FXUS64 KTSA 202320
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES PERSIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS FORECAST SUNDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SUNDAY AND PERSIST POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
- DAILY STORM CHANCES FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS SPREADING INTO THE CWA ON THE BACKSIDE.
IN RESPONSE, DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 5-10 DEG WARMER THAN
24-HRS AGO, TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S, AND INSTABILITY HAD
INCREASED BACK OVER THE REGION. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXISTS MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. MODERATE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES COULD CREATE A LIMITED
POTENTIAL OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ANY
STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A MCS AND PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
MAJORITY OF THIS COMPLEX REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA, WITH IT
POTENTIALLY MOVING MORE EASTWARD WITHIN THE 850-300MB MEAN FLOW.
HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
KANSAS AND ALSO NEAR THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. ANY CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO THE CWA, SHOULD BE
IN A WEAKENING STATE, THOUGH A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM WITH STRONG WINDS PERSISTS.
WITH THE RETURN FLOW AND CLOUD COVER FORECAST TONIGHT, LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 70S SHOULD BE COMMON FOR MOST OF THE
CWA.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE MCS FOR
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
COMMON. AT THE SAME TIME, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 108 DEGREES. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALSO THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, SHOULD TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS WHILE OUTSIDE.
ALSO AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LATEST SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS HINT AT A
SECONDARY THETA-E AXIS SETTING UP FROM FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANYTHING THAT CAN INITIATE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING SUNDAY EVENING.
THE MORE LIKELY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE
CWA. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP INTO A MCS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA. LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIALS EXIST WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AT THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION,
AND THEN SHOULD TRANSITION TO MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO EXISTS INTO MONDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES LOOK TO POOL ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT.
ONE THING TO NOTE...LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE PROGRESSION OF STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. FOR NOW THOUGH WILL HOLD THE COURSE AND NOT MAKE ANY BIG
SWINGS TO SEE IF SOLUTIONS REVERT BACK OR CONTINUE LATEST TREND.
EITHER WAY, WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS
AND INTERESTS ALONG STREAMS AND RIVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
LATEST FORECASTS AS FLOODING CONCERNS COULD INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LOOK TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS THE BOUNDARY INTERACTS
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL AGAIN CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY, AS THE MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES ON TOP OF RECENT RAINS COULD
INCREASE FLOOD CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY. BEYOND TUESDAY, SOME
FORM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OR ELEVATED BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
HOLD OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
FOR THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AND EXPAND QUICKLY NEAR SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MORNING W/ PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
REGARDING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF LOWER CEILINGS. GUSTY WINDS AND
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MORNING SUNDAY ARE HIGHEST
NEAR THE OK / KS BORDER AND POINTS NORTHWARD. THE NEXT WINDOW OF
HIGHER STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 94 72 83 / 10 10 80 50
FSM 74 94 75 86 / 10 10 90 60
MLC 76 93 77 86 / 0 0 80 60
BVO 73 94 68 81 / 10 30 90 20
FYV 72 89 72 83 / 10 10 80 60
BYV 70 89 70 81 / 10 30 90 60
MKO 74 92 73 84 / 0 10 90 60
MIO 73 91 68 80 / 10 30 80 20
F10 74 93 73 85 / 0 10 80 60
HHW 75 92 77 90 / 10 10 60 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ055-056-
059>061-064>067-070-071-154-254-354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07
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