665
FXUS64 KTSA 140405
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1005 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST AR AND FAR NORTHEAST OK
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY, OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- SEVERAL MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE COLDEST ONE ARRIVING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WEDNESDAY, FRIDAY,
AND SATURDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH THE COLDEST AIR LAGGING THE FRONT
SIGNIFICANTLY, MOSTLY IN THE 40S. A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT, WITH SKIES THEN GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP DURING THE DAY, IT
WILL LARGELY BE OFFSET BY DIURNAL TRENDS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S IN THE NORTH, AND MID 50S IN THE SOUTH. A SUBTLE
SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION INCREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE GUSTY WINDS ON TOP OF THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDOWN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY
MORNING, BEING POSITIONED ROUGHLY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AS WINDS GO
CALM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY COLD MORNING THURSDAY, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST
AREAS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WE WILL SEE A STRONG
AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST UP TOWARDS ALASKA.
NUMEROUS ARCTIC PUSHES WILL DESCEND TO THE EAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF
THE UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, GIVEN NO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, THE INDIVIDUAL TROUGHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. IN
EFFECT, THIS WILL IMPLY NUMEROUS MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
WITH BRIEFLY WARMER INTERLUDES FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. IT SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY.
IT ALSO APPEARS RATHER UNDERWHELMING IN TERMS OF COLD AIR, WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND IT. HOWEVER,
THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD PUSH
ARRIVES SATURDAY. THE DYNAMICS LOOK BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IT
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED, SO THE BEST CASE SCENARIO IS PROBABLY A
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH THAT SAID, IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION COULD POTENTIALLY FALL AS SNOW, BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW (5-10% CHANCE). WITH CLEARING SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR, SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY COLD. THE
FORECAST LOWS WERE REDUCED TO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS, EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK WHERE IT MAY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 20S.
DEPENDING ON HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES, WE MAY BRIEFLY WARM UP
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ADDITIONAL (LIKELY DRY) COLD FRONTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT CHANCE OF
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AT LEAST 10 DAYS AWAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE 00Z FORECAST. A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE BRINGING INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUD THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
LOWER CLOUD, INCLUDING MVFR CIGS AT THE FAR NW AR SITES WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION. THE LOWER CLOUD WILL CLEAR OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
THRU THE END OF THE FORECAST. WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PEAK DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS MOST
COMMON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFT 00Z TOMORROW EVENING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 44 50 23 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 70 45 53 24 / 0 10 0 0
MLC 68 45 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 67 42 48 19 / 0 10 0 0
FYV 68 43 48 17 / 0 10 0 0
BYV 66 44 46 18 / 0 30 10 0
MKO 72 45 50 22 / 0 10 0 0
MIO 64 43 46 19 / 0 20 0 0
F10 71 45 51 23 / 0 10 0 0
HHW 66 44 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30
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