163
FXUS64 KTSA 082255
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 552 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
- LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES LINGER FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY, ENDING BY SATURDAY EVENING.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WAS POSITIONED
FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OKLAHOMA
AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED
ONGOING ALONG THIS AXIS, ESPECIALLY JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF
CHOCTAW COUNTY IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
TROF WAS AIDING IN SLOW/NEARLY STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS AND AN
INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT. IN RESPONSE, WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY ALONG THE RED RIVER.
CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THIS TROF TO CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATER RAIN/STORM POTENTIAL
REMAINING JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWA.
OVER THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WERE
COMMON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEG
REMAIN PROBABLE ALONG WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 109 DEG
RANGE. THUS, WILL LET THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY RIDE AS IS FOR
NOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EXPECTED TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY GOING INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY IN
THE MID 90S TO AROUND 103 DEG ARE FORECAST. SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY
WINDS COULD MIX OUT DEWPOINTS A LITTLE BETTER EACH AFTERNOON
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY, THOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 109 DEG
RANGE ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FOR NOW HAVE
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO THE
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON HOW DEWPOINTS PLAY OUT, THE ADVISORY COULD BE
EXPANDED TO COVER MORE OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RIDGE TO SAG
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AMONG EXTENDED MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. AS
OF THIS FORECAST, THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A BOUNDARY TO APPROACH
THE REGION COULD BE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. HOWEVER,
IF THE BOUNDARY GETS HELD UP NORTH OF THE CWA, THEN HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN ONGOING. WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE...
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
AND SOME SCT TO BKN AFTERNOON CU FROM NW AR DOWN TO SE OK. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT THE
E OK AND FAR NW AR SITES FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 77 101 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 75 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 75 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 73 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 71 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 71 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 73 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 74 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
F10 73 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 74 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-055>068-
070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-354.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053-057-
058-060>063-065>068-070-071-073>075-172-176-272.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page