863
FXUS64 KTSA 102335
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL.
- TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE MID MAY NORMALS FORECAST FOR THE WEEK
AHEAD WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ABOUT TO
REACH FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ALONG AND SOUTHWARD FROM THE
BOUNDARY, DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WERE COMMON, WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S/50S WERE REPORTED TO THE NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME, MARGINAL
INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS RESIDED
SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY, MAXIMIZED OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS AHEAD
OF THE ONGOING RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. THE EASTERN
PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS HAD BEEN SLOW DUE TO A DRIER LAYER OF
AIR BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THE BASE OF THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES
HAS WARMED LITTLE WITH 60S COMMON UNDERNEATH THE RAIN AND LOWER
70S OUT AHEAD OF THE RAIN IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO WARM ALL THAT MUCH MORE WITH
THE CLOUD COVER.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE ONGOING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN PROBABLE,
MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, CLOSER TO A LEAD SURFACE
BOUNDARY, AND ALSO WITHIN THE SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS COULD HAVE A WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS WINDOW
LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF BY EARLY EVENING ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING BECOME MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40, AND THEN SHOULD EXIT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THE UPPER TROF AXIS, CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT WHICH WILL HELP LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE 40S ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER TO UPPER
50S/NEAR 60 DEG ALONG THE RED RIVER.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CWA MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A TRAILING ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
FORECAST TO APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY, LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR MAINLY FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND PRECIP POTENTIALS LOOK TO
REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE CWA, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
STRONGER VORTICITY.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY. IN
RESPONSE, A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AIDED BY THE RETURN OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES TRY TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TIMING AND
TRACK OF THE WAVES, THUS FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR PARTS OF THE CWA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
MVFR CIGS MLC EXPECTED TO IMPROVE NEXT FEW HOURS, BECOMING VFR
03-06Z. OTHERWISE, ALL SITES VFR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH MID CLOUD
CIGS, BECOMING HIGH CLOUD CIGS TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NWRN AR WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST NEXT COUPLE HOURS, WITH NO IMPACT TO TERMINALS
EXPECTED. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW PROBABILITY FOR FOG NWRN AR
SITES LATE TONIGHT, BUT GIVEN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, IMPACTFUL FOG
POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
BEHIND FRONT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, BECOMES EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 50 78 55 83 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 57 79 54 84 / 30 0 0 0
MLC 56 79 54 83 / 30 0 0 0
BVO 43 78 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 50 78 52 81 / 20 0 0 0
BYV 49 76 52 80 / 20 0 0 0
MKO 52 78 53 81 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 47 77 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
F10 52 77 54 81 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 60 77 55 80 / 50 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...69
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