673
FXUS64 KTSA 231133
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
633 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
AVIATION
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE LARGELY STAYED NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH KBVO, KXNA, AND KROG
OVERNIGHT. THE NEAR TERM OUTLOOK AND TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF OUR NE OK TAF SITES WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR FAR NW AR TAF SITES. THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT IS ONGOING WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE SE WITH TIME
POSSIBLY CLIPPING KROG AND KXNA. AS A RESULT, OPTED TO KEEP
-SHRA IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THIS CLUSTER WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MORNING LEADING TO
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 20KTS
AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE. WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE VERY WINDY AS WELL BETWEEN 35 AND 45KTS
FROM THE SW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT, OPTED
TO INCLUDE A WS GROUP FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR OUR NE OK TAF SITES EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. A
PROB30 WAS INTRODUCED FOR NOW AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND COVERAGE
OF THESE SHOWERS (POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS) SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.
SNIDER
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, EXTENDING NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTS, A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS FAR NE OK UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE JET BEGINS TO WEAKEN. LATEST TRENDS,
INCLUDING 06Z HRRR SUGGEST BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
STAY FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SE KS/SW MO.
OTHERWISE, UNSEASONABLY WARM/BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY,
CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. A STRONG
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, INCLUDING A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE STRONGER DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE
LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF AREA DURING THIS TIME. OBVIOUSLY THERE
WILL BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REGARDLESS, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTUAL SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE IS STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH UPPER
LOW MID WEEK, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER AND MORE CUT OFF WITH LOW, WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COOL/RAINY
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 85 70 82 52 / 20 20 60 10
FSM 85 67 83 56 / 10 10 60 60
MLC 84 68 82 54 / 0 10 40 20
BVO 84 67 81 47 / 30 20 30 0
FYV 80 64 79 47 / 20 10 60 60
BYV 77 66 78 49 / 40 10 70 60
MKO 82 67 80 52 / 10 10 60 20
MIO 78 66 78 47 / 40 20 60 20
F10 84 66 82 52 / 10 10 40 10
HHW 82 66 82 60 / 0 10 30 40
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
AVIATION.....21
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