488
FXUS64 KTSA 262336
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
TORNADO WATCH JUST ISSUED(AND WILL RUN THROUGH 02Z)FOR ALL OF E
OK TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
THAT HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST. THIS
THIS AREA HAS RECOVERED/DESTABILIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
AXIS OF SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE 3K-4K J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO AMOUNT OF COVERAGE THAT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT ONGOING STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME AS INSTABILITY IS LOST AND THE
DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE WEST. ONCE THESE STORMS DIMINISH,
ISOLATED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
OVERALL COVERAGE TOMORROW MORNING WILL REMAIN LOW WITH ONGOING
ISOLATED WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY. BY AFTERNOON, STORMS WILL HAVE
DEVELOPED TO THE WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF E
OK FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WILL BE IN PLAY DURING THIS TIME. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT
A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT STILL
APPEARS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL
JET STRUCTURES WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
(PWATS 1.5-2.0") AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS TRAINING OVER
THE SAME AREAS. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF E OK
EFFECTIVE FROM 4PM SATURDAY TO 1PM SUNDAY. INFLUENCES FROM THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO WANE SUNDAY MORNING, AND THE HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER, THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS/SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT ACROSS SE OK AND NW
AR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY, RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES THAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE NEXT
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
MVFR CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND
MIDDAY SATURDAY. LLWS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DUE TO A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 66 81 61 77 / 10 60 90 70
FSM 66 84 66 77 / 40 50 80 90
MLC 67 82 63 76 / 20 70 90 90
BVO 63 81 58 77 / 10 70 90 70
FYV 61 82 61 74 / 40 50 80 100
BYV 63 80 63 71 / 40 30 60 90
MKO 65 80 60 74 / 20 60 90 90
MIO 64 81 60 74 / 20 50 90 90
F10 66 79 60 76 / 10 70 90 80
HHW 66 80 63 73 / 20 60 80 90
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
OKZ054>068-070-071-073.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...05
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