836
FXUS64 KTSA 180409
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1109 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1101 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE SATURDAY. ANY
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 105-110 F FOR
MANY AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ALONG THE EDGE OF ITS INFLUENCE STRETCHING NW-SE
THROUGH OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALL ENDED FOR NOW,
THOUGH THERE IS A HINT OF A FEW WEAK SHOWERS REDEVELOPING NEAR
DAWN IN SOME CAMS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE UPWARDS JUST
SLIGHTLY FROM LAST NIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLAT OR WARM SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE
SOUTH RETREATS AND DIMINISHES. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. EVEN SO,
WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SOME LINGERING FORCING,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN FIRE UP FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE MINIMAL THAN FRIDAY,
WITH A 15-25% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST AREAS. THE IMPACTS OF ANY
STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD MORE STRONGLY INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS APPROACHING 597 DM. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH MID TO UPPER
90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE WILL REACH ITS
WARMEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE
WARMS TEMPERATURES TO 98-105 F ACROSS THE AREA. WITH STILL DECENT
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES OF 100-110 F CAN BE ANTICIPATED,
WITH HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHETHER IT WILL JUST
BE A GLANCING BLOW NEAR THE KS AND MO BORDERS, OR WHETHER IT WILL
DIG MORE DEEPLY INTO THE AREA. IN THE CASE WHERE THE COLD FRONT
STAYS FURTHER NORTH, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S WITH HIGHER HEAT INDICES. ON THE OTHER HAND IF IT MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH, AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD GET
A BRIEF AND MILD REPRIEVE FROM THE WORST OF THE HEAT FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS (EMPHASIS ON THE MILD, MEANING PERHAPS 5 F OF COOLING). IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE, AND SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS, THAT A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE FRONT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH DIRECTION THE GUIDANCE TRENDS ON THE FRONT, THE
UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING HOT THROUGH DAY 7 AND LIKELY BEYOND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NERN OK
AND NWRN AR WILL LIKELY WANE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SOME SIGNAL IN MODEL
DATA SUGGESTING A LOW CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED LATE NIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
NERN OK, BUT POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT ANY ONE SITE TOO LOW TO
MENTION. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CU/LOW CLOUD AND VARIABLE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND SATURDAY GUSTS TO LESS THAN
20KT NERN OK SITES. EXPECTED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 93 76 96 / 20 20 10 0
FSM 75 95 76 97 / 20 20 0 0
MLC 75 93 75 95 / 20 20 20 0
BVO 72 91 74 95 / 20 20 10 10
FYV 72 91 73 92 / 20 20 10 10
BYV 72 91 73 93 / 20 20 10 20
MKO 73 91 74 94 / 20 20 20 0
MIO 73 90 74 94 / 20 20 10 10
F10 73 90 73 94 / 20 20 20 0
HHW 74 91 74 95 / 20 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...69
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