678
FXUS64 KTSA 191703
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1203 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED STARTING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
THE WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY TODAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH
OF I-40 WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S. THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE NOT STRONG, A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN OK TONIGHT, KEEPING TEMPS FROM DROPPING TO
WHAT THEY DID LAST NIGHT. STILL, THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NW AR
AND SE OK WILL RADIATE DOWN COOLER AND WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE
FORECAST.
LACY
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING ACROSS TX TUESDAY WILL BRING LOW SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. SOME LOW CHANCES WILL LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY AGAIN SOUTH OF I-40 IN THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF. WEAK FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS A
NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE THREAT.
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP INTO A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY BY THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE AND
THE SURFACE FEATURES IS A BIT FASTER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. STORM
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL RAMPS UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE AND APPROACHING FRONT, WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
DROP DOWN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD
LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT HANGS UP. WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST AND SOME UPPER TROUGHING HANGING BACK OVER THE
SOUTHWEST, THE PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR AN AGGRESSIVE FRONTAL PUSH.
EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND ACCOMPANYING
THREATS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURE WISE, EXPECT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE READING
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST.
LACY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 48 76 53 74 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 45 78 49 77 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 44 76 52 72 / 0 0 10 20
BVO 44 76 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 40 75 47 76 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 46 74 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 45 74 50 72 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 46 73 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
F10 44 75 50 70 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 43 73 50 68 / 0 0 10 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67
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