197
FXUS64 KTSA 042230
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
530 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED MOST DAYS.
- LOW AFTERNOON RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARE NOW IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. WHAT RAIN THAT DOES FALL
IS NOT LIKELY TO REVERSE RECENT DROUGHT TRENDS.
- LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST MOST DAYS DUE TO THE
WORSENING DROUGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
A HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO A QUIET AND WARM SUMMER
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP
INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES, WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
SHELTERED VALLEY AREAS.
LACY
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND, DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST.
OUR AREA WILL BE IN A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ON ITS SOUTH
SIDE. ALSO, WV AND PWAT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A POOL OF
RICHER PWAT AIR TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH THAT WILL BE SPREADING WEST.
THE CAMS TODAY ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST
SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND, LIKELY AT
LEAST IN SOME PART DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT (NOT
OVER OUR REGION) AND AN INCREASE IN PWATS (RICHER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE). SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS (STARTING IN THE TERRAIN AND
WORKING WEST). USED CONSSHORT AND CONSRAW AS GUIDANCE FOR POPS.
AS FAR AS THE HEAT IS CONCERNED, FORECAST TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S
WITH THE HUMIDITY IN PLACE WILL YIELD DAILY HEAT HEADLINES. A HEAT
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED SUNDAY ON INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPPER HEIGHTS RISE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS IN SCOPE
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE A BACK DOOR FRONT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES CLOSE TO THE KS
AND MO BORDERS. DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY HOWEVER.
LACY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE LIGHTER THAN OBSERVED TODAY...LIKELY
10 KTS OR LESS FOR MOST. AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
AREAWIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NW AR AND SE OK. PROBABILITIES
REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME, BUT AMENDMENTS MAY
BE REQUIRED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 77 101 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 76 103 77 104 / 0 20 10 20
MLC 74 101 76 102 / 0 20 10 20
BVO 72 101 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 73 100 74 102 / 0 20 10 20
BYV 75 99 75 99 / 0 10 10 20
MKO 73 100 74 100 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 74 100 74 100 / 0 0 10 20
F10 73 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 74 99 75 99 / 0 10 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055>068-070-071-
073>075-154-176-254-272-276-354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-002-129-
219-220-229.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43
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