590
FXUS64 KTSA 252312
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
- RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- NEAR RECORD HEAT TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY, BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
MPH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE 20 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE. SOUTH WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL
ENSURE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE FA. TO FURTHER PUT THIS EARLY
SEASON HEAT IN PERSPECTIVE, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR
THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS RAMP UP THURSDAY MORNING, BECOMING STRONG
DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS IN
THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE COMMON, WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HWY 412 IN OKLAHOMA. FIRE WEATHER WILL
BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DAYS DUE TO INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT FUELS REMAIN DENSE AND VERY DRY ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH, THIS WILL CREATE NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE SPREAD RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OK, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-44. LOCALLY CRITICAL SPREAD RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES. THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SEVERAL MORE COUNTIES IN NE OK AND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WERE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST.
WINDS WILL TEND TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS IT DOES SO, WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTH, WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH, PERHAPS UP TO 45 MPH. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A RESULT. THE
FRONT CLEARS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FA FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE OK. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO FAR NE OK AND NW AR, AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT (< 1/10 INCH).
HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH TEMPERATURES
CREEPING BACK UP THROUGH EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WILL ALSO CHANGE BY EARLY TO MID WEEK AS AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
DEVELOPS ACROSS W CONUS AND PLACES US UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. WITHIN
THIS PATTERN, SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MAY IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, PROVIDING INCREASING RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS CURRENTLY, WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME VERY GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR ALL SITES. SKIES WILL MOSTLY
REMAIN CLEAR WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
THE REGION.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 66 94 53 63 / 0 0 20 10
FSM 62 92 60 72 / 0 0 10 20
MLC 65 89 59 69 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 62 95 49 63 / 0 0 30 10
FYV 63 90 53 66 / 0 0 20 30
BYV 66 88 51 61 / 0 0 30 40
MKO 64 89 56 65 / 0 0 10 10
MIO 65 89 49 61 / 0 0 40 20
F10 65 90 55 64 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 62 85 60 73 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054-055-
059-064.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ056>058-060>063-065>067.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...04
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