900
FXUS64 KTSA 242325
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
525 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1138 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WITH ALL-TIME DECEMBER RECORD HIGHS
ALSO POSSIBLE.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BRINGING MORE TYPICAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK,
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SO FAR THIS WEEK, AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS FOR LATE DECEMBER RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. ANALYZED 500MB HEIGHTS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR THE DATE, VALUES TYPICAL OF
EARLY SUMMER. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WITH A SSW COMPONENT TO SFC WINDS SOUTH OF A SFC
BOUNDARY RAPED ACROSS CENTRAL-SW KANSAS AND A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE
EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S OR EVEN
SOME LOWER 80S ARE NEAR CERTAIN TODAY. THESE WILL BE NOT ONLY NEAR
RECORDS FOR THE DATE, BUT ALL-TIME DECEMBER RECORDS AS WELL. FIRE
WEATHER DANGER REMAINS LARGELY OFFSET BY HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S MAINLY.
THE SFC BOUNDARY OVER KS IS EXPECTED TO DROP A LITTLE SOUTH TONIGHT
AND BE NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY MORNING. THIS AREA WILL SEE LIGHTER
WINDS OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND
SOME VALLEYS IN SOUTHEAST OK. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN WITH
SOME BECOMING DENSE IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THIS MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE SEASON, THOUGH
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
STRONG RIDGING PERSISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH THE
VERY WARM AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY ARE SURE TO FALL, AGAIN WITH SOME DECEMBER RECORDS
POSSIBLE AS WELL. SOME FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT
HAS BEEN NOTED IN GUIDANCE, WHICH ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE COOLER AND RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF I-44, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL FOG
POTENTIAL. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN A MODEST COOL DOWN FOR THOSE
AREAS AS WELL, WITH RECORD TEMPS AGAIN ELSEWHERE FRIDAY, AND AGAIN
SATURDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
CONSENSUS HAS DEVELOPED FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO COME CRASHING
THROUGH THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MARKING A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER WITH THIS AIRMASS OF
ARCTIC ORIGIN AND CONTINUES TO TREND FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. EXPECTATION FOR SUNDAY IS FOR GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORCED ALONG THE
FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY LOOK TO BE 35-40 DEGREES COLDER
THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING, IN OTHER WORDS IT WILL FEEL
LIKE LATE DECEMBER.
THIS COLD INTRUSION APPEARS SHORT-LIVED AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. FORECAST WILL SHOW MODERATING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
BROKEN HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN AFTER SUNSET, BUT STAY UP AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR MOST SITES
OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG THE
OK/KS BORDER. MAIN FOG IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE TO KFSM AND
POSSIBLY KBVO, WHILE OTHER NW AR SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS FILL IN
BY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY LATE
MORNING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 59 79 58 75 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 59 80 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 60 80 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 54 77 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 59 76 61 77 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 61 76 62 76 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 59 79 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 60 77 58 73 / 0 0 0 0
F10 59 80 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 60 78 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04
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