035
FXUS64 KTSA 212328
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- STORM COMPLEX EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN ELEVATED
SEVERE RISK AS WELL AS A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAT COULD LEAD TO
QUICKLY DEVELOPING FLOODING CONDITIONS.
- ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY )
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS REMAIN
FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NEAR AN ELEVATED THETA-E
BOUNDARY STRETCHED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A LIMITED STRONG TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
THREAT. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAK WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO DAYTIME HEATING, WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
20-35 MPH AID MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM THIS MORNING COULD KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME HELP ADD TO THE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THUS, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
ARE FORECAST WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF MID 90S TO AROUND 105
DEGREES. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...A SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO SAG TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS BORDER, AND BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INITIATE
OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND REMAIN IN THE
GENERAL AREA BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL
KANSAS, REACHES THE CWA. SEVERE POTENTIALS QUICKLY INCREASE WITH
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THE ONSET, INCLUDING A LOW TORNADO
THREAT. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES, STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
INTO A MCS AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT SEVERE POTENTIALS
BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40, THOUGH LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAIN
SOUTH OF I-40 OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATER
TORNADO THREAT IS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 412 THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.
ALONG WITH THE SEVERE RISK INTO MONDAY WILL BE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 100-200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL
FOR RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 14-DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES INTO MONDAY
COULD QUICKLY INCREASE FLOODING CONDITIONS OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG CREEKS/STREAMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND BE PREPARED TO ACT IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT STARTING THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A
HALF INCH TO LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST. THESE AREAS HAVE
RECEIVED LESS RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS, THOUGH WITH THE
EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED, LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP.
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THE MCS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVER THE CWA. A LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO HOLD UP OVER THIS AREA
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY LOOK TO WARM INTO THE
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST
OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER MCS IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS MCS TO
RIDE ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CREATE A LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL AS A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL INTO TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY INCREASE
FLOOD CONCERNS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ADJUSTED MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.
THE ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ARE FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIALS AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST INTO MID WEEK.
ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS FOR LATE WEEK FROM
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WITH THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP FORECAST THIS WEEK,
TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.
EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT THIS UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WE ARE CURRENTLY IN COULD COME TO A CLOSE NEXT
WEEK AS THE BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WOULD RETURN THE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY IF THIS
VERIFIES. FOR NOW WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE EXPANDING LINE OF STORMS. MVFR WILL LARGELY
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST STORMS W/ AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES WHEN THE STRONGER STORMS PASS. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY
PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A RISE INTO
LOW VFR LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 82 70 85 / 80 20 50 50
FSM 75 88 72 86 / 90 50 60 70
MLC 77 87 72 87 / 80 60 80 70
BVO 68 81 66 83 / 80 10 30 40
FYV 71 83 69 83 / 100 50 40 50
BYV 70 81 66 81 / 100 40 30 50
MKO 74 83 70 84 / 90 50 60 70
MIO 67 81 66 83 / 90 10 30 40
F10 73 84 70 85 / 80 50 70 70
HHW 77 88 74 89 / 50 50 70 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ057-058-062-063-068-
069-172-176-272-276-376.
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
120-129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07
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