844  
FXUS64 KTSA 221059  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
559 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025  
 
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA  
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  
 
- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.  
 
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025  
 
AN ELEVATED THETA-E AXIS CURRENTLY OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND  
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE  
MID LEVEL MEAN FLOW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. A NON-ZERO  
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER EXISTS OVER THIS AREA, THOUGH MOSTLY  
WILL BE NOTED BY AN AREA OF INCREASED MID CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING. THIS THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SET UP NEAR THE RED RIVER  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. AGAIN, AN  
ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS  
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, ALONG WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER  
THE CWA. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA AS ANY  
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE LESS IN COVERAGE COMPARED TO WHAT DEVELOPED  
IN THE THETA-E AXIS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED  
MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO AN  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG THE U.S./CANADA  
BORDER. WITH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS REMAINING ON  
THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED  
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE IN THE LOW/MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025  
 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR/JUST NORTHEAST OF THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES  
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE PARENT LOW. THE FIRST OF THESE IS  
EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO/THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY LATE  
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL  
EXIST AS THE BOUNDARY ENTERS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO WEAKEN SATURDAY EVENING WHILE THE  
BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY,  
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND  
THE BOUNDARY, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST SUNDAY OVER THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST.  
 
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
MONDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE GREATER RAIN POTENTIAL AS  
WELL AS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. POOLING MOISTURE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL  
AID IN A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT MONDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES  
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A THIRD DISTURBANCE MOVING  
ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE  
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PARENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS  
PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
ORIGINATING FROM CANADA DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. WITH  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INCREASING WEDNESDAY, PRECIP CHANCES COULD  
WEAKEN FOR A SHORT TIME PERIOD, BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO  
QUICKLY DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL  
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WITH THE  
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN CHANCES, A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXISTS  
WITH EACH DISTURBANCE NEXT WEEK.  
 
A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION  
WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF  
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE  
PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, WELL BELOW  
SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ARE  
FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS NEXT WEEK. THESE COOL OF TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS OFF AND ON  
THROUGH THE WEEK. IF PARTS OF THE CWA, CAN BREAK OUT INTO THE AUGUST  
SUN, THEN THESE FORECAST TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LOW. THE GREATER  
POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY WHERE  
LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH JUST A  
FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS IN THE 4-6 KFT LAYER. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE  
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A BIT OF GUSTINESS ACROSS  
NORTHEAST OK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 94 69 93 69 / 0 0 20 10  
FSM 95 72 98 73 / 0 0 10 0  
MLC 94 69 95 70 / 0 0 0 0  
BVO 92 64 91 62 / 0 0 30 10  
FYV 91 65 93 66 / 0 0 10 0  
BYV 90 64 92 65 / 0 0 10 0  
MKO 93 69 94 70 / 0 0 10 0  
MIO 91 64 90 63 / 0 0 20 10  
F10 93 69 94 68 / 0 0 10 0  
HHW 93 70 95 71 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...20  
LONG TERM....20  
AVIATION...06  
 
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