992
FXUS64 KTSA 260456
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1156 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1150 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID ONSET FLOODING
ACROSS MUCH OF NE OK.
- LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ONGOING LATE THURSDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION. A COMPLEX OF DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS WAS
OBSERVED MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY
TONIGHT, AND THIS MAY DRIFT INTO PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL.
ADDITIONALLY, A WAKE LOW HAS DEVELOPED LATE ACROSS N-CENTRAL OK,
AND IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH. THIS MAY INFLUENCE
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.
IN KANSAS, A WEST-EAST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
A ZONE OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT, COINCIDING WITH
VERY HIGH PWATS (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS) AND MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE AIRMASS IN NE OK AND NW AR MAY
RECOVER OVERNIGHT AND A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF KS CONVECTION INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS POSSIBLE. WHILE EXACT CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION IS UNCERTAIN, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40. HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE OK WHERE PLENTIFUL RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE.
A SEMI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. DESPITE A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD
INCREASING RIDGING IN THE AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY AS A RESULT. FURTHER EXTENSIONS
MAY BE REQUIRED INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SHEAR WILL BE NOTABLY LESS THAN
THURSDAY, BUT AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT IN THE 80S OR LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT AS A SUBTLE WAVE TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND DRIER WITH TIME AS RIDGING BECOMES
INCREASINGLY DOMINANT. BY SATURDAY ONWARD, DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY AS WE ENTER A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDICES GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK, AND
HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEXT WEEK, BUT OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AR WILL LIKELY
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT TAF SITES WITH VCTS FORECAST FOR KFYV FOR THE
FIRST HOUR. CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE OF OVERNIGHT
ROUND OF STORMS STARTING AFTER 06Z WITH PROB30 AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 10-14Z. TIMING IS LOOSELY BASED ON LATEST CAMS. MVFR TO
LOW VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER BEHIND ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
LATE MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AR SITES IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY LIGHTER WIND IN OK AS A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE A CONCERN FOR LATER
FORECASTS AS NORTHERN SITES REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING
RIDGE WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM A SURFACE BOUNDARY POSSIBLY WORKING
INTO THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 73 90 76 92 / 50 50 50 20
FSM 75 91 77 93 / 20 20 10 10
MLC 77 90 79 92 / 20 10 10 10
BVO 71 87 72 91 / 60 30 50 20
FYV 72 86 73 89 / 40 40 20 20
BYV 71 85 72 88 / 70 40 50 30
MKO 75 88 76 91 / 40 30 20 10
MIO 71 86 72 90 / 80 60 40 30
F10 75 89 76 91 / 40 20 10 10
HHW 75 90 77 92 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR OKZ055>070-154-254-354.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...24
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