829
FXUS64 KTSA 121113
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 611 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- NEAR RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP MONDAY, WITH CONDITIONS
VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MORE COMMONLY SEEN IN
JULY THAN OCTOBER. RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SET
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS, WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER TUESDAY POSSIBLY KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST BELOW RECORD
LEVELS, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTH TO NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS
BORDER COMBINED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
EJECTING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR, AND A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN ITS WAKE.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN A COUPLE MONTHS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLWS
WILL PERSIST AT MOST SITES THROUGH MID MORNING, WITH SFC WIND
GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH 20-25 KNOTS COMMON FROM MID-MORNING UNTIL
SUNSET. SOME DATA SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS TO SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY TO PART OF NW AR VERY LATER IN
THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 74 91 74 / 0 0 10 50
FSM 93 72 93 75 / 0 0 10 20
MLC 91 73 90 75 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 91 71 91 71 / 0 0 10 60
FYV 91 69 89 73 / 0 0 10 30
BYV 90 72 89 74 / 0 0 10 30
MKO 91 71 91 73 / 0 0 10 30
MIO 89 71 89 71 / 0 0 10 50
F10 90 72 90 73 / 0 0 10 30
HHW 90 73 89 74 / 0 0 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14
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