698
FXUS64 KTSA 151710
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1210 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH TODAY BEFORE WARMER
WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL STORM AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A PLEASANT JUNE AFTERNOON IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WEEKEND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A FEW SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS LINGERS IN THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AND ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM
WINDS, AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S TONIGHT. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE SOME LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AS
WELL. MOISTURE ON THE GROUND FROM RECENT RAINFALL COULD AGAIN
LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY FOG DEVELOPMENT, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. VARIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL PUSH A
FEW BOUNDARIES INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THAT WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE MORE TYPICAL OF MID JUNE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND APPROACH THE OK/KS BORDER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE LOW
WITH THESE STORMS, BUT STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE AS MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. THAT ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MORE OR LESS WASHES OUT OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS RISE BACK INTO THE
70S AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO BECOME QUITE GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HEAT HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED FOR A
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL, WHERE
HEAT INDICES APPROACH 105 PLUS DEGREES. THIS NEXT BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS OF INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR BY WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT
WITH ANY STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES FOLLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT.
SURFACE RIDGING CALMS THINGS DOWN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AS
THE PASSING BOUNDARIES KEEP THINGS IN CHECK AS FAR AS MORE
EXCESSIVE HEAT POTENTIAL FOR NOW. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION BY
LATE WEEKEND AND LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WITH AT LEAST LIMITED SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT. VALLEY FOG IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN NW AR, HOWEVER POTENTIAL SHOULD OVERALL BE
LESS THAN TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 82 62 88 72 / 0 0 10 10
FSM 85 66 90 71 / 0 10 0 0
MLC 83 66 89 72 / 0 10 0 0
BVO 84 59 87 69 / 0 0 30 10
FYV 82 59 86 68 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 80 58 84 66 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 82 62 87 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 81 60 85 68 / 0 0 20 10
F10 82 62 88 70 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 83 68 88 72 / 30 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page