642
FXUS64 KTSA 222348
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
NEAR DAILY CHANCES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
- TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/MCV EVIDENT ON RADAR IMAGERY SOUTHWEST
OF FSM IS WHAT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE RAINS LAST NIGHT. THE SYSTEM
IS NOW ON THE MOVE TOWARD THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGH
ALOFT OVER FAR E OK INTO W AR. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS OUT WEST. THE
HRRR HAS SHOWN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF STORMS COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS AREA THIS AFTERNOON, GROWING
UPSCALE INTO AN EASTWARD MOVING MCS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED
RIVER TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT MOVE INTO SE OK UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT, REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT. NONETHELESS, GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES ACROSS SE OK LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FARTHER
NORTH, STORMS MAY ALSO FIRE ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN KS/NW
OK THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO NE OK
TONIGHT.
SKIES MAY CLEAR OUT ENOUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE MCV IN THE EAST
TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS OF NW/W-C AR AND FAR E OK.
LACY
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
AN MCV LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO FIRE OFF MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. ONCE THAT SYSTEM CLEARS SATURDAY
EVENING, THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON MONDAY, AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH FROM TX, WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
INCREASING FIRST OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THAT AFTERNOON.
HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A
WEAKNESS IS MAINTAINED IN THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS OVER THE
REGION SOUTH OF AN OMEGA BLOCK IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES, AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DAILY SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED, PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT, SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE PRETTY LOW.
HOWEVER, SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
LACY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH
SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NW AR BEFORE DIURNAL
CU DECREASES. OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE FOG AND LIMITED VSBYS ACROSS NW AR SITES AND
POTENTIALLY BVO. TEMPOS WERE MAINTAINED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL,
WITH IFR TO LIFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW AR. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO E OK SITES BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR CATEGORY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 62 78 62 82 / 30 60 20 10
FSM 63 82 64 84 / 10 60 20 20
MLC 63 81 63 84 / 60 60 20 20
BVO 58 78 57 82 / 30 60 30 10
FYV 58 80 60 81 / 10 60 20 30
BYV 58 80 60 81 / 10 70 30 20
MKO 61 79 61 82 / 20 50 20 10
MIO 59 78 60 81 / 20 70 30 10
F10 61 79 61 82 / 50 50 20 10
HHW 63 80 64 82 / 60 70 20 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43
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