703
FXUS64 KTSA 130425
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1025 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- OVERALL QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. POTENTIALLY MUCH
COLDER WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN WITH MILD DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST FLOW. WENT A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NBM, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THESE WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN
NORTHEAST OK. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WITH COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH FOR MANY AREAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, BUT THE DRY LOWER LEVELS
WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS GO CALM UNDER THE SURFACE
HIGH, RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO RETURN BY LATER THURSDAY, BUT IT WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO RESULT IN ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING WITH HIGHS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WIND. THE COLDEST AIR WILL
HANG BACK AND ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NOTABLE SPLIT WITH RESPECT TO THE
INTENSITY AND DURATION OF THE COLD AIR FOR THIS PERIOD. SOME
GUIDANCE WANTS TO QUICKLY SEND THE COLD AIR EAST WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REVERSING OVER THE WEEKEND, AND WARMER AIR RETURNS.
OTHER GUIDANCE HUGS THE TERRAIN MORE CLOSELY WITH THE ARCTIC PUSH,
WHICH WOULD IMPLY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY (POTENTIALLY
THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER SO FAR), AND LINGERING INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY. AT THIS RANGE IT'S DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHICH WILL BE
CORRECT, BUT DID LEAN COLDER THAN NBM GIVEN SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS
ARE VERY COLD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS
WILL BE A DRY OR MOSTLY DRY FRONT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH NOTHING AT ALL BEING THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THE MAIN CHANGE MADE TO THE 00Z FORECAST WAS TO INSERT LLWS
MENTION AT MOST SITES WITH MODEL/GRID DATA INDICATING A STRONG
ENOUGH WSWRLY LLJ TO WARRANT MENTION ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH GUSTY SW WINDS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT
MOST SITES. WINDS SUBSIDE BY SUNSET TOMORROW EVENING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 64 41 69 43 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 62 35 70 43 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 64 38 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 64 34 68 38 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 59 37 67 39 / 0 0 0 20
BYV 59 43 66 41 / 0 0 0 40
MKO 63 39 70 43 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 59 39 64 41 / 0 0 0 30
F10 65 39 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 60 35 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30
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