168
FXUS64 KTSA 280514
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1214 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- HOT, HUMID AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, AND MAY BE NEEDED IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING.
- THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS IN THE
TERRAIN OF SE OK AND NW AR DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE 70S DUE TO SUSTAINED SOUTH
WINDS. ASIDE FROM SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. DESPITE BREEZY AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS
REDUCING WBGT IMPACT SOMEWHAT, A HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE,
AND HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA (105F) ACROSS THE FA. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, HAVE PULLED DEWPOINTS HIGHER THAN NBM OUTPUT, RESULTING
IN ADVISORY-LEVEL HEAT ACROSS THE AR RIVER VALLEY AND INTO
PORTIONS OF NE OK. THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED AS A RESULT AND
RUNS BETWEEN 1 AND 8 PM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAX DAILY HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES
ARE PROBABLE. BY MID TO LATE WEEK, RIDGING DRIFTS EAST AND
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS, MAINLY ORIGINATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THE
RAINFALL FOOTPRINT LIKELY REMAINS SPOTTY IN THIS REGIME AND MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION BY THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BUT DETAILS VARY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
LLWS WILL BE PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN LATER
SUNDAY EVENING, WITH SFC GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOME DATA SUGGESTS LOWER CLOUDS MAY SPREAD NORTH INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OK JUST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY BUT PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CEILINGS REMAINS QUITE LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 80 94 79 95 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 78 95 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 78 94 78 94 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 76 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 74 90 74 92 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 74 91 74 92 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 77 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 77 92 77 93 / 0 0 0 0
F10 77 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 76 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ055>057-059>062-064-066-067-070-074-154-176-254-272-
354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14
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