163
FXUS64 KTSA 051137
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
637 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- LOW STORM CHANCES CONTINUE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
44. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
- LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH VERY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE ONGOING STORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. IN ITS WAKE EXPECT
LOWER DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK
FRONT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE
OZARKS HELPING ADD SUPPORT FOR THE ACTIVITY. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOW.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL WARM INTO THE
MID 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWER 90S CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MOST AREAS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
DURING THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL ON
MONDAY WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN HEIGHTS AND LITTLE
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO RETURN TO MORE
SUMMER-LIKE TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD MAKE DIURNAL STORMS MORE ISOLATED BY
TUESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, PEAKING ON
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING EXCESSIVE HEAT INTO THE
CONVERSATION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOME AS WE MOVE TOWARD
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN OF LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESIDE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS FAR SE OK WITH
CHANCES AT ANY TAF SITES TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. CLEARING
SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY FOR NW AR SITES.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 88 72 91 72 / 20 0 0 0
FSM 91 73 93 73 / 40 20 20 0
MLC 92 72 93 70 / 40 20 0 0
BVO 88 69 89 68 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 86 68 88 68 / 30 10 20 0
BYV 85 68 87 66 / 30 10 20 0
MKO 88 71 90 71 / 30 0 0 0
MIO 87 69 89 68 / 20 0 0 0
F10 89 70 91 70 / 30 0 0 0
HHW 92 73 93 72 / 40 20 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...04
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