850
FXUS64 KTSA 191008
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
508 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF NW AR AND FAR E OK.
- THERE ARE LOW SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY BETTER
RAIN/STORM CHANCES WITH A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT, RESULTING
FROM EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH CALM
WINDS. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY IN THE
TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS/SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. AFTER A CHILLY
START, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NE OK AND FAR NW AR, BETWEEN 10-20
MPH.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BY MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING TO
THE EAST, WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO THE AREA. THIS
WILL HELP TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE, PROJECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH S
OK/N TX TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS SE OK/W-CENTRAL
AR TUESDAY AS THE WAA REGIME MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE, BUT INSTABILITY DURING
THIS TIME LOOKS WEAK. MOST LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION, A POTENT
UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BY THURSDAY,
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST
LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
POPS THEN INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE FA. DETAILS WILL COME INTO FOCUS OVER THE COMING
DAYS, BUT SEVERE WEATHER DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME,
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. GUIDANCE VARIES GOING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS PROVIDING A PERIOD OF
RIDGING, WHILE OTHERS MAINTAIN TROUGHINESS AND CONTINUED
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL. THE NBM CURRENTLY PROVIDES 10-30% POPS
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING
THROUGH THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 73 48 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 74 45 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 73 44 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 74 43 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 71 40 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 70 44 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 72 44 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 70 45 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
F10 73 44 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 71 43 74 50 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
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