773  
FXUS64 KTSA 301449  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
949 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025  
 
- FOG POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH MID MORNING.  
 
- WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY.  
 
- UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND STORM  
CHANCES, INCLUDING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND  
HEAVY RAIN.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025  
 
SATELLITE/OBS INDICATE FOG HAS DISSIPATED ALLOWING EXPIRATION OF  
ADVISORY AT 9 AM. ASIDE FROM THAT WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND  
WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. FORECAST IS TRENDING WELL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY)  
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY  
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS,  
WITH A COOL FRONT SINKING FARTHER SOUTHWARD, TAKING ANY STORM  
CHANCES WITH IT. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER SHOULD  
PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS  
MORNING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN PARTS  
OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND  
THE RECENT RAINFALL, EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP  
NORTH OF I-40 INTO MID MORNING, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE  
THEREAFTER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT STILL A FEW  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025  
 
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE ON DECK FOR THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH  
LOWS IN THE 50S AREAWIDE TO START THE WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FINALLY MAKE A RETURN SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN TO A  
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION, ALBEIT AT FAIRLY LIGHT SPEEDS.  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS  
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES FORECAST NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY.  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRIEFLY TO  
OPEN THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY.  
HOWEVER, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN BY  
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN  
UNITED STATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND  
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS  
THE REGION AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN RESPONSE. MODEST INSTABILITY  
WILL SUPPORT A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH  
ANY PREDAWN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER REMAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STORMS  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS  
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE THE FAVORED THREATS, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY  
RAIN. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE  
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND FORECAST AMOUNTS. THE OVERALL PATTERN  
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE NEXT WORK  
WEEK WITH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGHING CONTINUING TO A  
LARGE DEGREE. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR  
FLOODING, WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS THREAT BECOMING CLEARER AS THAT  
TIME APPROACHES. FOR NOW, PROBABILISTIC DATA FROM THE LATEST NBM  
INDICATES WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING  
THE 72 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 7 AM NEXT FRIDAY, WITH 90TH PERCENTILE  
VALUES FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025  
 
PATCHY DENSE FOG ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OK AND NW AR IS  
PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST IN VARIABLE  
FASHION THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH  
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 78 57 85 63 / 0 0 0 30  
FSM 80 57 85 62 / 0 0 0 20  
MLC 79 56 84 63 / 0 0 0 30  
BVO 78 52 86 60 / 0 0 10 20  
FYV 76 52 82 59 / 0 0 0 20  
BYV 74 52 81 60 / 0 0 0 20  
MKO 76 55 82 61 / 0 0 0 30  
MIO 76 52 82 60 / 0 0 10 20  
F10 77 55 83 62 / 0 0 0 40  
HHW 79 57 82 63 / 10 0 0 20  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...14  
LONG TERM....22  
AVIATION...07  
 
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