717
FXUS64 KTSA 040512
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1212 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
- UNSETTLED PATTERN AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE RETURN TO MAINTAIN
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS
TO BE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
- ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT AN OCCASIONAL
STRONG AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALMOST EACH DAY.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT HEADLINES
POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS A RESULT, ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED
FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH CHANCES
INCREASING AREA WIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST SYSTEM LOOKS
TO IMPACT OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL BE THE
PERIOD OF MOST WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO TAKE OVER DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LESSENING RAIN CHANCES AND BUILDING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY. HEAT HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED IN SOME
PLACES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK GIVEN CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, FAVORING THE
EAST. CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND LOWER AFTER SUNRISE, DOWN TO 3-5
KFT FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP, BUT COVERAGE
WILL FOCUS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ANY STORMS MAY RESULT IN LOWERED
VISIBILITY, HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 86 71 87 72 / 20 10 10 10
FSM 86 70 88 71 / 60 20 20 20
MLC 86 71 87 72 / 40 10 20 30
BVO 86 69 88 70 / 20 10 0 0
FYV 84 68 85 69 / 50 10 20 10
BYV 83 66 84 68 / 30 10 20 10
MKO 85 69 87 70 / 40 10 20 20
MIO 86 69 87 70 / 30 10 10 10
F10 85 69 86 70 / 20 10 10 20
HHW 84 70 85 71 / 60 20 30 40
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06
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