986
FXUS64 KTSA 121058
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 457 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- A SLIGHT UPTICK IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY, MAINLY
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED SOUTH WINDS,
WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN DEW POINTS.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOCUSED IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING TIME FRAME, WITH LOW CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IMPACTS.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
BY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL RAISE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SOME GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
THE MUCH ADVERTISED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRIDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1-2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL, BUT NON-ZERO, GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY, A QUICK RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AS FUELS DRY OUT RAPIDLY AFTER THE WEEKEND
RAINS, WITH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY APPEARING TO BE THE
DAYS OF GREATEST CONCERN. THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS ONE THAT
TYPICALLY YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 457 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
PATCHY LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE BY MID MORNING WITH LITTLE TO
NO AVIATION IMPACT. OTHERWISE INCREASING HIGH CLOUD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 69 46 69 55 / 0 10 50 90
FSM 68 44 69 53 / 0 0 30 70
MLC 69 48 72 57 / 0 10 30 80
BVO 67 38 68 52 / 0 0 50 90
FYV 64 38 69 51 / 0 0 30 80
BYV 62 41 68 50 / 0 0 20 80
MKO 68 46 70 54 / 0 10 40 90
MIO 64 42 69 52 / 0 0 30 90
F10 70 47 71 56 / 0 10 40 90
HHW 69 48 74 58 / 0 10 20 70
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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