481
FXUS64 KTSA 160216
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
916 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 916 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- LOW-MEDIUM AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
MUCH OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ON SCHEDULE THIS
EVENING. SMALL CONVECTIVE BAND SERN OK PERSISTS AND CURRENT CAMS
INDICATES THIS AREA WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WANE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS IT
DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING
FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT AND SHORT-TERM EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVERHEAD WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COMMON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY WEAK
FLOW HAS LED TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND INSTANCES OF MINOR FLASH
FLOODING THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO EXPAND INTO THE AREA WITH
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR E OK AND NW AR
ZONES. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, BUT GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER
SUNDOWN AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES, THOUGH GUIDANCE INDICATES AN
AREA OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AS IT LIFTS INTO FAR NE OK AND NW AR. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL, THOUGH CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD END
UP FAIRLY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70 FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY AS
WEAK TROUGHING AND DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF, GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS
WITH A DRYING TREND LIKELY GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE INCREASING
INFLUENCE FROM UPPER RIDGING WILL ALSO PRODUCE WARMING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA, WITH MANY LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES ONCE AGAIN EXCEEDING 100-105 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF NE OK
AND W-CENTRAL AR. DETAILS VARY GOING INTO MID WEEK, THOUGH SOME
FORM OF RIDGING WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEARBY, EVEN IF PERIODS OF
WEAKNESS ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND/OR RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN. OVERALL, NOTHING TOO ABNORMAL FOR JULY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS,
AND HIGH PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING MOST SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
HORUS BEFORE QUICKLY WANING THIS EVENING. SOME FOG CONTINUES TO LOOK
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NWRN AR. SKIES AREN'T EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, AND ABUNDANT MID/HIGH CLOUD SHOULD KEEP VSBY
FROM GOING BELOW IFR. DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND MOST LIKELY NWRN AR, SO CARRIED PROB30 GROUPS
AFTER 16/18Z THOSE SITES. LIGHT WIND TONIGHT BECOMES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 91 74 93 / 50 10 0 10
FSM 72 91 73 93 / 60 10 0 10
MLC 71 89 72 91 / 30 20 10 20
BVO 69 90 72 92 / 40 10 0 10
FYV 68 87 70 89 / 60 20 10 10
BYV 68 85 70 89 / 40 40 0 10
MKO 70 89 72 90 / 60 10 0 10
MIO 70 88 72 91 / 50 30 10 10
F10 69 89 71 90 / 50 20 10 20
HHW 71 88 71 89 / 20 20 10 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...69
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page