482
FXUS64 KTSA 212302
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 559 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
THERE ARE RAIN CHANCES FORECAST DAILY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
- ABNORMALLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND THEN DEVELOPING INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
AS OF LATE MORNING THURSDAY, AN AREA OF INCREASED VORTICITY WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTERACTING WITH AN
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT TO CREATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHEAST OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WAS AIDING IN SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL. WITHIN THE STRONGER SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDER HOURLY RAIN RATES WERE ESTIMATED UP AROUND 1 INCH PER HR.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THUS
FAR, AS WEAK MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS SLOW TO EXIT WESTERN
ARKANSAS.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, RAIN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT TO SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO THE AREA OF VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH, AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH TEXAS, AND THE WEAK MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY EXITING. AT THE SAME TIME, A LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS/FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF OKLAHOMA, WHICH
CAN ALREADY BE SEEN BY THE PLUME OF MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS OVER
THIS SAME AREA. THUS, THE GREATER RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL MID
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND NEAR THIS
AXIS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL
CONTINUE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH LOCALLY FLOODING CONCERNS.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO
THE CWA WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS RESIDING OVER FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDER, THOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAKENS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THEN EXIT FRIDAY EVENING
ONCE THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION. AGAIN, A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE MAIN THREAT INTO FRIDAY, AS
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND WEAK SHEAR ALOFT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF A HALF INCH TO 1.5
INCHES REMAIN FORECAST OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY INCREASED FLOOD CONCERNS.
ALSO, THERE REMAINS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOCALIZED AREAS OF
AROUND 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A LOW POTENTIAL
OF RIVER FLOODING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD WARM SLIGHTLY FROM THE
INCREASING PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE DEWPOINT
BEFORE TRYING TO WARM INTO THE 70S FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA COULD BECOME MORE
SCATTERED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CREATE A FEW LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WARMING UP AROUND 80 DEG.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES FRIDAY EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD WITH ANOTHER
DEVELOPING AREA OF VORTICITY. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERED ON THE
TIMING OF THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE VORT MAX REACHING THE CWA.
THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTER SOLUTION WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE SLOWER
SIDE OF SOLUTIONS. LATEST THINKING IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE CWA DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE VORT MAX. A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL HELP TO CREATE A LITTLE BETTER
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THUS, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST FOR THE CWA SATURDAY. MARGINAL
SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIALS ISOLATED TO
LIMITED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE QUICKLY LIFTS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING VORT MAX SATURDAY EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE A MORE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS PROGGED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THUS, DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WEAK FLOW ALOFT
INTERACTING WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIALS. HOWEVER, WITH THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAIN CHANCES, A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHICH COULD LEAD TO
INCREASED FLOOD CONCERNS EXISTS INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE CWA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
DIFFICULT AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN MVFR TO IFR THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE LIFTING AND BREAKING UP SOMEWHAT INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FOR THE OK TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 02Z
THIS EVENING, AND UNTIL 04Z FOR NORTHWEST AR. REDUCED VISIBILITY
IS EXPECTED AT TIMES, WITH WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK ACROSS OK, MOVING INTO AR THROUGH MID MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME SE FRIDAY, BUT MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. A FEW ADDITIONAL
STORMS COULD FORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 62 78 62 78 / 90 60 20 50
FSM 66 79 63 83 / 80 70 10 50
MLC 64 80 63 81 / 80 30 40 50
BVO 59 78 58 78 / 80 60 20 40
FYV 62 75 60 79 / 80 70 10 50
BYV 62 72 59 79 / 60 70 10 50
MKO 63 78 62 79 / 90 60 20 50
MIO 61 75 59 79 / 90 70 10 50
F10 61 79 61 79 / 90 40 30 50
HHW 64 81 63 81 / 80 30 50 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06
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