930
FXUS64 KTSA 161128
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 516 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEHIND
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES.
- SEVERAL MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY INTO NW KS WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL PRESSURE
RISES OBSERVED (+14MB/3HR) WHICH WILL PROMPT A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS ONCE THE FRONT PASSES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING
DEEPENS AND WIDESPREAD 30-40MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MILD TEMPS AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-35
PERCENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE GUSTY WINDS TO RAISE GRASSLAND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OK. CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY SPREAD ACROSS FAR NE OK
INTO NW AR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LOCALLY KEEP HUMIDITY
VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY BRINGS A COLDER AIRMASS AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS MORE TYPICAL OF MID JANUARY ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND A FEW
FLURRIES MAY ALSO BE SEEN AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS ACROSS THE
REGION. CALM WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COLD LOW
TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL USHER ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WHICH KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN ALOFT MAY BECOME
SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL
MODERATE AND THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM
TO BRING AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KFSM BY 17Z, OTHERWISE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30KT WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS NEAR 10KT
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD THOUGH A MID CLOUD DECK WILL BRING CEILINGS CLOSER TO
7KFT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MOST SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 50 26 39 14 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 53 27 43 17 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 53 26 44 12 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 49 21 37 11 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 48 23 39 10 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 46 24 33 11 / 10 0 10 0
MKO 51 26 41 13 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 47 23 33 11 / 0 0 0 0
F10 51 26 41 12 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 55 30 43 17 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...24
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