338
FXUS64 KTSA 292336
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
636 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 105 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY, WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH SEVERAL PERIODS
OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD IS IN STORE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH HAS LED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OSAGE COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY,
BUT OVERALL LOW IMPACT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE NORTH. AREAS UNDER THICKER CLOUD COVER AND EXPERIENCING MORE
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN COOLER, WITH HIGHS NEAR 80.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
THE MAIN IMPACT FOCUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHILE HURRICANE POLO IS MAKING
ITS SECOND LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF POLO WILL BE
INJECTED INTO THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW. THE TRUE REMNANTS OF
POLO LOOK TO THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THUS, MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
BUT GENERALLY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS NOTED ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WRAPPING INTO THE UPPER LOW AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY SET UP A
PSEUDO DRY LINE MOVING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A SECONDARY PLUME OF TROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE, SOMEWHAT TIED TO THE DEVELOPING HURRICANE RACHEL, WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEVELOPING
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA, ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAX VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE DEEP SATURATED
PROFILES, EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED AND RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON. ALSO, GIVEN THE
TIMING OF THE LINE BEING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES WILL STAY PRETTY LOW AS INSTABILITY IS LACKING.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALLOW THERE TO BE A NON
ZERO TORNADO RISK WITH THE INITIAL LINE WITH ANY STRONGER
UPDRAFTS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY, WHILE LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE OK/AR BORDER
AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AS THE
ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY AND MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. POST FRONTAL AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE A REAL TASTE OF FALL
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY WITH CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS, PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN, AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY. LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BRINGS COOL AND
DRIER AIR THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY. A MULTI DAY PERIOD OF
MORE SEASONABLE EARLY OCTOBER CONDITIONS WILL FINISH OUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK.
TALKING ABOUT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED RAINFALL TOTALS...THE TREND TO
A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIMIT SOME OF THE EXTREME
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH LESS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA COULD STILL SEE LOCALLY 6-7 INCHES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH, IN
PART BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE
AREA, ALONG WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH THE DRY SLOT MIGHT
INHIBIT TOTALS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS FOR A WATCH
ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN COMMON OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OUT WEST. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY JUST
OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DEVELOP FOR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.
THUS, HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA TAF SITES. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD VARY BETWEEN EAST AND
SOUTH TONIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. ALSO,
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TONIGHT WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 86 70 76 / 0 20 80 100
FSM 72 96 75 89 / 0 0 30 70
MLC 74 95 71 83 / 0 10 60 100
BVO 68 85 66 75 / 10 20 100 100
FYV 69 91 69 84 / 0 0 30 80
BYV 71 89 72 84 / 0 0 20 70
MKO 72 90 69 79 / 0 0 70 90
MIO 71 86 69 74 / 0 10 60 100
F10 72 89 68 78 / 0 10 80 100
HHW 72 94 73 85 / 0 10 40 90
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20
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