869
FXUS64 KTSA 081750
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1150 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, AS PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS
FINALLY BREAK AND SKIES CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY TO THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
SKIES WILL FINALLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL LOCATIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD BY
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING A RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL
STAY CONSTANT OR GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM FALLING TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME MORE SHELTERED, GENERALLY COOLER
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 20S.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY A
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A SERIES OF
DRY COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN FURTHER ON TUESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
(DOWNSLOPE) FLOW SPREADING OVER THE REGION. THIS REGIME IS
CONDUCIVE TO A QUICK WARMUP OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS FOR TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE BREEZY WINDS,
RELATIVELY DRY AIR, AND WARM TEMPERATURES COULD LOCALLY RAISE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE ARE ABOUT TWO WEEKS REMOVED FROM ANY
KIND OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA. LEANED ON THE WARMER
END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AS THE NBM IS GENERALLY TOO LOW
IN THESE QUICK TRANSITION PERIODS. A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY KNOCKING TEMPS BACK A BIT, THOUGH STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPS WILL RISE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONGER, ARCTIC FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC INTRUSION
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGER PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR APPEARS
TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION. STILL, A GLANCING BLOW
WILL LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND RANGE OF GUIDANCE, STUCK WITH THE NBM BLEND FOR
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH
PREDOMINATELY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOP NEAR SE OK / WESTERN AR TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 34 62 43 56 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 31 61 39 59 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 33 63 41 59 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 29 61 40 56 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 32 58 42 55 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 32 58 44 52 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 32 60 42 57 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 32 58 41 54 / 0 0 0 0
F10 32 62 42 59 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 31 61 40 60 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07
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