281
FXUS64 KTSA 161716
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- WARMER WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
STORMS TUESDAY AND MEDIUM CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY
- A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH A LOW END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SURFACE RIDGING HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
AND THUS A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
RISING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A COUPLE OF PLEASANT DAYS BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, BUT A FEW
SHOWERS LEFTOVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS KANSAS WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
RAIN WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THE LEFTOVER OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DRIFT CLOSE TO THE OK/KS BORDER AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY, ALONG
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO
FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MODEST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR
WILL PROMOTE ANY STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO NE MINIMAL AND MOST WILL NOT SEE A STORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS SHOULD WANE NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY
IN THE 70S, EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO
TICK UP AND DEWPOINTS ALSO INCREASE OVER THE REGION.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS PERSISTENT TROUGHING IS COMMON
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA, WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING INTENSIFIES OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF CANADA
AND DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WILL FOSTER A
RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, WITH BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD
AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
ROBUST LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THUS, WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WHILE DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 70S.
HEAT HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED AS WELL ON WEDNESDAY AS HEAT
INDICES APPROACH 105 PLUS DEGREES, THOUGH THE WIND WILL HELP
ALLEVIATE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES.
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO HANG THE BOUNDARY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WHEN IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY
SAG SOUTHWARD. THUS, BETTER STORM CHANCES HAVE BEEN HELD FURTHER
NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AGAIN, A MARGINAL SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY WORKS THROUGH THE LOCAL REGION. SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL SEE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
THURSDAY AS WELL. MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE BOUNDARY WILL NEAR THE RED RIVER BY FRIDAY MORNING
WITH BETTER STORM FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
A BRIEF QUIETER PERIOD LOOKS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
REGION. STILL, SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
MESOSCALE FEATURES AND LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY. STRONGER TROUGHING LOOKS TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD EVOLVE DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL AS BETTER SHEAR SETS UP OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN CHECK WITH THE ACTIVE PATTERN
OVER THE AREA AND STRONGER RIDGING REMAINING WELL WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL REGION.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
THOUGH A LOW PROBABILITY OF LIGHT FOG WILL EXIST AT KFSM LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NE OK/NW AR BUT PROBABILITY
REMAINS LESS THAN 20% AT ANY LOCATION. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT WILL BRING LLWS TO NE OK, WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
GUSTY IN MOST LOCATIONS MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 90 74 93 76 / 10 10 0 20
FSM 91 72 93 76 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 90 74 91 77 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 90 72 94 72 / 20 30 0 40
FYV 87 70 89 75 / 10 10 0 20
BYV 85 68 88 72 / 20 0 0 40
MKO 88 72 91 75 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 86 70 91 71 / 30 20 0 60
F10 88 72 91 75 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 88 72 90 75 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...14
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