469
FXUS64 KTSA 090510
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1210 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. THE ONE DRIER DAY WILL BE THURSDAY.
- MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL CREEP UP INTO THE 95-105F RANGE
EACH OF THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN YESTERDAY WILL SLIDE
SOUTH AND EAST FOR TODAY, WITH THE FOCUS FOR MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL. STILL, HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY STILL LEAD TO
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS TODAY... MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STORMS SHOULD SHOW LESS ORGANIZATION TODAY AS ANY MID
LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS ALOFT, BUT SOME DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL STILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO TAKE A TICK UPWARD TODAY WITH MORE
PREVALENT SUNSHINE, WITH ANY REPRIEVE FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS
BEING SPOTTY AT BEST. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
95-105 ACROSS THE REGION, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS MAKING IT FEEL
RATHER MUGGY IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD AS HIGHS CREEP
INTO THE MID 90S. CONTINUED HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAT
INDICES IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE BOTH AFTERNOONS, WITH HEAT
HEADLINES POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME
OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH COULD HELP OFFSET SOME OF THE HEAT STRESS.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH AN
ISOLATED STORM COULD STILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IF AIDED BY SOME
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS OR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THE BREAK IN STORMY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AS TROUGHING
ENHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AGAIN BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES MOVING CLOSE BY WILL PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING, ALONG WITH
SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. OVERALL, THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THE
PERIOD LIMITING MUCH ORGANIZATION. NEARBY TROUGHING AND A CONTINUED
TRAIN OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THE MOST PART, WITH HIGHS
INTO NEXT WEEK STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 80S OR LOWER 90S AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2025
REDUCED VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING TO JUST PAST SUNRISE
REMAIN A GOOD BET GIVEN ALL OF THE RAIN SEEN YESTERDAY. EXPECT
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS MAINLY AT THE W AR
SITES, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT TIMES. MVFR
VISIBILITY MENTION WILL BE CONTINUED AT THE E OK SITES.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN SEEN YESTERDAY AND
ISOLATED TO THE W AR TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN THE PROB30'S AT
THOSE 4 SITES, ALTHOUGH THE TIMING HAS BEEN SHIFTED BACKWARD 3
HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS SET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 93 73 94 77 / 10 10 0 0
FSM 93 74 95 76 / 20 20 10 0
MLC 92 73 93 75 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 92 70 94 73 / 10 10 0 0
FYV 90 70 92 72 / 20 20 0 0
BYV 90 69 91 73 / 20 20 10 0
MKO 91 72 93 75 / 10 10 0 0
MIO 91 71 93 75 / 20 10 0 0
F10 91 72 93 75 / 10 10 0 0
HHW 90 72 93 74 / 20 20 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page