851
FXUS64 KTSA 271047
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
447 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 444 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WITH ALL-TIME DECEMBER RECORD HIGHS
ALSO POSSIBLE.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS AS WELL. MUCH COLDER TEMPS, MORE TYPICAL OF
LATE DECEMBER, CAN BE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
- MORE AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, WITH BEST
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
THE BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT SOME DRIER, THOUGH NOT MUCH COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL WASH OUT/RETREAT BACK NORTH BY
SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SURFACE PRESSURE ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA WHILE
THE BOUNDARY RETREATS AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
FOG COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT TO FOG OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. ELSEWHERE, MORE PATCHY FOG WILL BE
OBSERVED, MAINLY IN MORE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER VERY
WARM AND HUMID DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR LATE DECEMBER. HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN APPROACH ALL TIME DECEMBER RECORD VALUES NEAR 80
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUD COVER
COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO RETURN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM, MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S, AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
A BIG CHANGE IS STILL ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PHASE WITH A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE REGION, APPROACHING NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY THE MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY,
SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S, THOUGH THICK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT WARMING BEFORE THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PRECEDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ALSO SERVE TO FOCUS AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, SOME AREAS
OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED IN DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME TO ACCOMMODATE THIS SCENARIO. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE
NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY AROUND NOON. THE RESULT WILL BE RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES, LIKELY 20-30 DEGREES OVER JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS, ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL (40MPH) LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE TO
BRING INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BUT, MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD
COOL ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER
TO THE LOCAL REGION, THAT AT LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP. THEREFORE, A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. BETTER
SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND BETTER FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL REGION CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. THUS, WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND
MORE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR OUR AREA,
BUT SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED,
OWING TO THE REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE, BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED, STRONGER STORM OR TWO LATE IN
THE DAY SUNDAY.
THE PARENT TROUGH AXIS WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONTAL PUSH SOMEWHAT,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD AIR REALLY MOVES IN. THUS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY
MIX OR SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. AMOUNTS LOOK TO
BE LARGELY NEGLIGIBLE AND MOSTLY NON IMPACTFUL IN TERMS OF TRAVEL
HAZARDS AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR PUSHES IN BY THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, WITH CONTINUED BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS CAUSING WIND CHILL VALUES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID TEENS ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH LOWER 20S EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ON MONDAY AS MOST PLACES WILL SEE HIGHS
STAYING IN THE 30S, WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHTER DURING THE
DAY, EASING THE WIND CHILL EFFECT BY AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO MID TEENS. THUS,
TUESDAY WILL START OFF COLD, BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO QUICKLY
REBOUND AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AND MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF 2025 ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE 50S. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
ANOTHER, WEAKER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY,
KNOCKING TEMPS BACK A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY, THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
HEADING INTO JANUARY.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
AREAS OF FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING FOR ALL AREAS,
BUT THE BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN NEAR KFSM. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER
SUNSET FOR SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE, CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FOR MANY AREAS. RAIN
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING, BUT LIKELY AFTER THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 79 64 67 25 / 0 10 20 0
FSM 80 63 73 28 / 0 10 30 20
MLC 81 65 70 28 / 0 0 30 10
BVO 77 57 64 21 / 0 10 20 0
FYV 78 63 67 22 / 0 10 30 20
BYV 77 65 69 21 / 0 10 40 20
MKO 79 65 68 26 / 0 10 20 10
MIO 75 63 66 22 / 0 10 30 10
F10 81 65 69 26 / 0 0 20 0
HHW 79 63 72 31 / 0 0 30 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
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