297
FXUS64 KTSA 301722
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1147 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
- RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- THE ONGOING DROUGHT SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN.
LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN DEPRESSED, MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 105-107 F WITHIN THE HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OK. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST.
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD AND QUIET WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, AND MAINLY IN THE 70S EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE
TYPICALLY COOL SPOTS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH A SPRAWLING
AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH EITHER OVERHEAD OR NEARBY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S EACH
DAY AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY (THOUGH PERHAPS SLOWLY RISING WITH TIME), SO
EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT, HEAT INDICES WILL ONLY RUN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE TEMPERATURES. THIS MAY KEEP HEAT PRODUCTS
CONFINED TO THE TYPICALLY HOTTER LOCATIONS. THIS IS ALREADY THE
CASE FOR MONDAY, WITH A PAIR OF HEAT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR.
BY MID WEEK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE S-SSE INSTEAD OF S-
SSW WHICH WILL HELP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CREEP UPWARDS. THE INCREASE
IN DEW POINTS MAY EXPAND THE FOOTPRINT OF HEAT PRODUCTS AT THAT
TIME. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WAS ALREADY PATHETIC, AND IT LOOKS EVEN
LOWER NOW FOR THE MID WEEK, WITH ONLY A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A FEW
HIGHER TERRAIN DIURNAL SHOWERS. MODELS INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SIMILAR SHOWERS OR STORMS TO 10-20% OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHWEST AR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SITTING JUST
WEST OF THE AREA. WITH CONTINUED HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER,
SOME FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT
THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH DIURNAL MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST FOR THE CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT FOR KBVO AS THIS LOCATION COULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE
WINDS FOR THE PERIOD REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KFSM WHERE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IS FORECAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 102 78 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 102 74 103 76 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 102 76 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 102 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 98 72 100 73 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 97 73 99 74 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 102 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
F10 101 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 100 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ055-056-
060>062-067-354.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055>057-059>062-
064-067-154-254-354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20
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