189
FXUS64 KTSA 141128
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST AR AND FAR NORTHEAST OK
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY, OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- SEVERAL MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE COLDEST ONE ARRIVING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WEDNESDAY, FRIDAY,
AND SATURDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH THE COLDEST AIR LAGGING THE FRONT
SIGNIFICANTLY, MOSTLY IN THE 40S. A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT, WITH SKIES THEN GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP DURING THE DAY, IT
WILL LARGELY BE OFFSET BY DIURNAL TRENDS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S IN THE NORTH, AND MID 50S IN THE SOUTH. A SUBTLE
SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION INCREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THESE GUSTY WINDS ON TOP OF THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SUNDOWN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY
MORNING, BEING POSITIONED ROUGHLY DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AS WINDS GO
CALM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY COLD MORNING THURSDAY, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESUME BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST
AREAS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WE WILL SEE A STRONG
AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST UP TOWARDS ALASKA.
NUMEROUS ARCTIC PUSHES WILL DESCEND TO THE EAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF
THE UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, GIVEN NO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, THE INDIVIDUAL TROUGHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. IN
EFFECT, THIS WILL IMPLY NUMEROUS MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
WITH BRIEFLY WARMER INTERLUDES FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. IT SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DRY.
IT ALSO APPEARS RATHER UNDERWHELMING IN TERMS OF COLD AIR, WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND IT. HOWEVER,
THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD PUSH
ARRIVES SATURDAY. THE DYNAMICS LOOK BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IT
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED, SO THE BEST CASE SCENARIO IS PROBABLY A
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. WITH THAT SAID, IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION COULD POTENTIALLY FALL AS SNOW, BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW (5-10% CHANCE). WITH CLEARING SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR, SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY COLD. THE
FORECAST LOWS WERE REDUCED TO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS, EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK WHERE IT MAY REMAIN IN THE LOWER 20S.
DEPENDING ON HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES, WE MAY BRIEFLY WARM UP
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ADDITIONAL (LIKELY DRY) COLD FRONTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT CHANCE OF
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AT LEAST 10 DAYS AWAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
MVFR CEILINGS AT THE FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES WILL LIFT TO VFR
BY LATE MORNING. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 50 23 52 34 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 53 24 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 53 23 53 34 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 48 19 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 48 17 47 29 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 46 18 44 34 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 50 22 51 34 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 46 19 47 33 / 0 0 0 0
F10 51 23 54 35 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 55 25 52 34 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05
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