967
FXUS64 KTSA 272310
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 606 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- MUCH COLDER TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT FREEZE POTENTIAL ALONG THE
KANSAS BORDER AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING, WITH FREQUENT NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40
MPH RANGE AND ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH CONTINUING MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A SLOW TREND
DOWNWARD IN WIND SPEED IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK IS BEGINNING TO LESSEN
SOME ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER, WITH THE CLEARING LINE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE
REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW WINDOW FOR HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-44 ACROSS AREAS
THAT HAVE RECENTLY BEEN MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR, AS SOME CLEARING OCCURS. THE EXISTING FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS HANDLING THIS THREAT WELL.
SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE TO EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
CAM OUTPUT CONSISTENT IN LINGERING LOW POTENTIAL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. POPS THROUGH 09Z
REFLECT A HEAVY INFLUENCE OF THE SHORT-TERM BLENDED GUIDANCE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRAILING THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SUPPORTING
POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE. GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG AND
THE KANSAS BORDER, WITH LOWER BUT STILL MENTIONABLE POTENTIAL IN
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO A FREEZE
WARNING IN THE NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT, GIVEN WE ARE INTO THE SPRING PERIOD FOR ISSUING
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES, BUT WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT
THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF THE AREA, WILL NOT DO
SO AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY THE AFTERNOON TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, MAINLY IN
THE MID 60S, CONTINUED LOW DEW POINTS AND THE INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS WILL SUPPORT A NEAR ELEVATED THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES. THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY, CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A
RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OCCURS. INCREASING
MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NOTABLY ABOVE TRADITIONALLY
CRITICAL LEVELS FROM SUNDAY ON. THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL BE RELIANT ON FUEL STATES.
SOME FIRE WEATHER RELIEF MAY BE ON THE HORIZON BEGINNING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A MORE ZONAL PATTERN EARLY TO MID WEEK
TRANSITIONING SO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
SUPPORTING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MORE SEASONABLE AS WELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS WHICH WILL STEADILY SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH
WINDS BECOMING LESS GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
AREA WIDE SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 36 65 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 39 66 45 80 / 20 0 0 0
MLC 41 67 49 79 / 20 0 0 0
BVO 32 66 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 33 64 44 75 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 34 63 43 75 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 37 65 47 77 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 33 63 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
F10 39 67 47 79 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 46 64 47 78 / 20 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ054>057-059>062-
064>067.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07
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