827
FXUS64 KTSA 261058
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 456 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WITH ALL-TIME DECEMBER RECORD
HIGHS ALSO POSSIBLE.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW STORMS AS WELL. MUCH COLDER TEMPS, MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE DECEMBER, CAN BE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEK.
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
A PIECE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WILL FORCE A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THOSE LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH, WITH FRIDAY
MORNING LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S FROM I-44 AND POINTS
NORTH. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT BY LATE DECEMBER STANDARDS
IS IN STORE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH LOWS AGAIN ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES, WEAKENING SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALLOW MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION NEAR SUNRISE THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE HIGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION
FURTHER NORTH FRIDAY MORNING. OTHER VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE THE WIND
DROPS OFF OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING FOG AGAIN
FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
THE RECORD HEAT OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS, THOUGH HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL
STILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS. CONTINUED RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND RETREATS BACK NORTH FOR SATURDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. THE RESULT WILL BE
ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH RECORD TEMPERATURES NEAR 80. ANOTHER VERY
WARM NIGHT IS IN STORE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS STAY GUSTY THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING LONGWAVE WESTERN
TROUGH PHASES WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS
WILL PUSH A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH SHARPLY DROPPING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. CONTINUED WARM 850 AND 700 TEMPS, THAT HAVE BEEN
PLANTED OVER THE REGION FOR THE LAST WEEK, HOWEVER WILL LEAD TO
SOME MODERATE CAPPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION, LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE ENOUGH THAT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION CAN BREAK OUT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND GIVE SOME
AREAS SOME DESPERATELY NEEDED PRECIPITATION. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE. AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
COOL BELOW FREEZING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A BRIEF MIX OR CHANGEOVER
TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED OVERALL, THOUGH THE SHARPLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW TEENS WILL BE A SHOCK TO
THE SYSTEM AFTER THE RECORD WARMTH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD ON MONDAY AS SOME LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE LOWER 20S TO MID TEENS. THUS, TUESDAY WILL START OFF COLD, BUT
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO QUICKLY REBOUND AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEW YEAR, AS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA, THOUGH NOT NEAR AS
WARM AS THIS RECENT RECORD SETTING STRETCH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
COULD BE IN THE OFFING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT GUIDANCE
REMAINS SPLIT ON THIS SCENARIO CURRENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY RAIN
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER
LASTING THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG REMAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS NEAR KFSM FOR A
FEW HOURS. OTHER AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE FOG BUT IT CANNOT
TOTALLY BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN NORTHEAST OK. FOR KMLC AND
THE AR TAF SITES, THE WIND SHIFT WILL FAVOR THE NORTH BUT WITH
LONG PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 53 79 64 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 79 55 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 80 57 81 64 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 74 47 78 58 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 78 55 78 63 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 76 55 78 64 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 75 54 80 66 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 73 54 76 63 / 0 0 0 20
F10 77 54 80 66 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 78 60 79 63 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
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