041
FXUS64 KTSA 222355
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
655 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1117 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
- THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR STORM ACTIVITY IS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING, AND
STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS WORK WEEK,
RETURNING ABOVE AVERAGE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS MORNINGS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY
DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-40 (CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY). THIS INCREASE IN POPS WILL
BE DRIVEN BY ANOTHER SUBTLE PASSING WAVE WHICH WILL KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS WHERE USABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THERE IS A LOW
END CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT (5%
CHANCE). LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE, AND AS SUCH,
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE LOW 70S OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERTOPPING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE, SHEAR, AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE. MEANWHILE, FREQUENT TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES WILL PASS
THROUGH, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN, AND ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR, IS NOTORIOUS FOR
BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT WE HAVE
BEEN SEEING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES, BUT THERE WILL BE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES EVERY DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID,
CAM GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS ALREADY ZEROING IN ON THE WIND
AND RAIN POTENTIAL. ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS IS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. ASSUMING A
WELL DEVELOPED LINE OF STORMS OCCURS, CAMS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND
GUSTS IN THE STRONGER CELLS WOULD BE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, AND
MOSTLY IF NOT COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN THE STORM CYCLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. CONSIDERING ALL OF THE RAIN THAT
WE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED, AND WITH MORE ON THE WAY, IT IS LIKELY
THE HEAT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
PESKY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS HAS REMAINED THICK ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHEAST OK AND FAR NORTHWEST AR, GENERALLY FROM KTUL-KFYV AND
POINTS NORTHWARD. ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY ERODING.
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY 01-02Z, THROUGH THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IF CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST
AR. OVERNIGHT STAYS MOST QUIET, BUT LIGHT FOG AND PATCHY STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY. MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS AT MOST
SITES FOR BRIEF REDUCTION OF VIS THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW-LEVEL
MVFR CIGS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID-LATE MORNING AND ALL
TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BY MIDDAY OR SO, BUT INTERMITTENT MVFR/VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
TUESDAY. FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OK, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KMLC, NEAR DAYBREAK, THOUGH
LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN KEEPING BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY IN THE EVENING, IMPACTING MAINLY THE NORTHEAST OK TAF
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHER TERMINALS MAY BE
IMPACTED BEYOND THE PERIOD.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 69 85 71 85 / 20 20 70 70
FSM 72 86 72 87 / 40 40 50 80
MLC 71 88 74 89 / 50 40 40 50
BVO 64 84 69 84 / 10 20 70 70
FYV 67 83 68 84 / 20 20 60 80
BYV 64 80 67 82 / 10 20 60 80
MKO 69 84 70 86 / 30 30 60 70
MIO 65 84 68 83 / 10 10 70 70
F10 69 85 71 86 / 50 30 50 60
HHW 72 88 73 90 / 70 30 20 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page