461
FXUS64 KTSA 120444
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- OPPRESSIVELY HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY...
HOT, HUMID, RAIN-FREE, AND BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST HAS ALREADY BEGAN SHOVING THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE, THAT WAS SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD AND FLATTEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, LEE
TROUGHING WILL PERSIST, PEAKING DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS 25-30 MPH, STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHEAST OK. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER
100S AGAIN, WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING BETWEEN 105 TO 110 F. A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES AND FORECAST
ZONES ACROSS EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT-
TERM PERIOD.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
A HOT AND HUMID, PERSISTENT FORECAST WILL BE THE MAIN TAKEAWAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK, PERHAPS EVEN
BEYOND. EXPECT DAILY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S, WITH HEAT INDICES HOVERING BETWEEN 105
AND 110 F, EACH AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM NOW THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.
THE INCESSANT RIDGE WILL HOLD STEADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, KEEPING THE JET STREAM AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-
TERM. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH MODELS SHOWING A 598-600
DECAMETER RIDGE BY FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE RETROGRADING WESTWARD AND OVERHEAD LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THEORY, THIS WOULD LIKELY
BE SOME OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR, BUT THIS WILL ALSO BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXACT POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AS IT
MOVES OVERHEAD. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE SUGGESTING A WEAK
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THAT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK, WILL SAG SOUTH AND PUSH INTO FAR
NORTHEAST OK LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE
FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER,
TRENDS IN THE FORECAST MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THIS FRONT
HAVE BEEN UNRELIABLE AND INCONSISTENT. WILL HAVE BETTER DETAILS
AND A BETTER GRASP OF HOW THIS EVOLVES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR
NOW, THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. SFC WINDS WILL
BACK OFF THIS EVENING, WITH LLWS CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT THE NE OK SITES AS A SWRLY LLJ DEVELOPS. SFC WINDS
WILL PICK BACK UP BY MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SCT CU AND
SOME HIGH CLOUD DURING THE DAY.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 82 103 83 104 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 79 103 80 103 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 79 102 81 102 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 78 104 79 105 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 76 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 78 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 78 101 79 102 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 79 101 80 102 / 0 0 0 0
F10 78 102 79 103 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 78 98 79 98 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-119-
120-129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30
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