828
FXUS64 KTSA 011712
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1212 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE BY MID NEXT WEEK, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT POSSIBLE
AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. A FEW AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL ONLY REACH THE
LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. ENJOY IT
WHILE IT LASTS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN, BUT SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. MONDAY WILL BEGIN THE WARMUP AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO RETURN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES, MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
TO LOW 100S, SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY CREEP UP WITH TIME, WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE HEAT INDEX. BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY SUGGESTS THE RETURN OF HEAT
PRODUCTS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THERE IS NO GOOD FORCING MECHANISM FOR
ANYTHING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THAT POINT A
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE
AREA, BUT IT WILL BE WELL REMOVED FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
ACCORDINGLY, THAT WILL MOSTLY MEAN JUST SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL
STORMS, FOCUSING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOUGH PERHAPS AROUND
NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP, THE MAIN
IMPACTS WOULD BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. UNFORTUNATELY,
THE OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WILL IMPLY A CONTINUED DRYING OF
VEGETATION AND POTENTIALLY SOME MINOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
RETURNING TO PARTS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
OBS ARE TRENDING TOWARD LOW-END VFR IN THE AREA OF LOW CLOUD OVER
NW AR, BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE SO WILL INSERT TEMPOS
THROUGH 19Z. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY AS
SUNSET APPROACHES THIS EVENING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY OUT OF THE NORTH.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 68 91 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 70 93 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 68 91 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 65 91 65 94 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 65 88 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 65 87 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 67 89 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 65 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
F10 67 91 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 68 91 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30
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