174
FXUS64 KTSA 221114
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
614 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME HEAT RELIEF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BUT THE HEAT WILL RETURN FRIDAY.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COOL FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY SOUTH TO AROUND
I-40, WITH MUCH MORE PLEASANT DEW POINTS TO THE NORTH OF IT IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, CLEARING THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE COOLDOWN ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLE
GIVEN HOW HOT TUESDAY WAS, BUT FOR THE MOST PART, HIGHS SHOULD
STILL BE JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW
COUNTIES MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT IS BORDERLINE
ENOUGH THAT NO HEADLINE WILL BE ISSUED FOR THAT AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY,
WITH LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING LIKELY TO BE IN THE 60S IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD MAY GRAZE AREAS
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS
OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON, ALBEIT IN A
LIKELY DECLINING PHASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY, ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL DEGREE OF THE
WARMUP SHOULD BE LESS THAN DEPICTED BY THE NBM DUE TO INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING RIDGE. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERS INTO SATURDAY WILL IMPACT
HOW HOT TEMPERATURES GET, PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS LIKELY
TO BE CENTERED NEAR ENOUGH TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO LEAD TO A MULTI-DAY PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT AND ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 72 93 77 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 96 73 93 74 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 95 73 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 89 69 91 74 / 0 0 20 0
FYV 90 68 90 70 / 0 0 10 0
BYV 88 68 87 68 / 0 0 10 0
MKO 92 72 92 74 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 88 68 90 72 / 0 0 40 0
F10 91 71 92 74 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 97 75 92 74 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05
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