589
FXUS64 KTSA 181751
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
- LOW CHANCES (10-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUNSET THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHARPLY DROP OFF AND TEMPERATURES
INCREASE BY THIS EVENING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. HOT,
HUMID, AND DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LAST NIGHT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST REGIONS. RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED OR MOVED
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY REDEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM A
SURFACE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HI-RES MODELS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MAY SLIDE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
NEVERTHELESS, KEPT IN SOME LOW-END POPS (10-30%) FOR CARROLL,
MADISON, AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND BENTON COUNTIES
THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. NO IMPACTS (SEVERE/FLOODING) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
OTHERWISE, MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING IN THE MID-
UPPER 90S AND NEAR 100F IN SPOTS. A HEAT ADVISORY (HEAT INDEX
VALUES 105-109F) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY IN AR, AS WELL PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD AND BEGIN TO PUT A LID ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER-MIDDLE 70S.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
HEAT STRESS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE LONG-TERM. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE UPPER RIDGE
HOVERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BY MIDWEEK, GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING TEMPERATURES WARMING FURTHER, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S/NEAR 100F, AS THE RIDGE MOVES
NORTHWARD AND ONSHORE AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE LOWER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATE DAILY HEAT HEADLINES FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS, IF NOT MAJORITY, OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SUMMER HAS ARRIVED.
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW (SATURDAY)
AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR/JUST EAST OF OF HIGHWAY 75.
REGARDLESS IF IN THE ADVISORY OR NOT, IT IS IMPERATIVE TO TAKE
NECESSARY HEAT PRECAUTIONS, ESPECIALLY IF SPENDING OR WORKING
OUTDOORS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE DAYTIME.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH ONE EXCEPTION.
SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG POTENTIAL AT THE FAR NW
AR SITES. SOME HEAVY RAIN FELL IN THE AREA LAST NIGHT, SO THAT
STRENGTHENS THE ARGUMENT. INSERTED TEMPOS TO COVER. GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT SFC WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON SATURDAY. INSERTED
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS FROM MID-MORNING ONWARD.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 76 96 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 76 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 74 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 74 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 73 94 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 73 95 74 95 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 74 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 74 94 75 95 / 10 10 0 0
F10 74 95 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 73 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ060>062-066-067-
070>072-074-076.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ055>057-
060>062-066-067-070>076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30
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