253
FXUS64 KTSA 220533
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1233 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK.
- SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCE RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RESULT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 60S TO UPPER 50S
AREAWIDE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
NEAR SUNRISE THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY ALONG THE SOUTHWARD
ADVANCING MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. GENERALLY ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE TOWARD MIDDAY LEAVING BEHIND ANOTHER
RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
NORTH TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
NEAR PERSISTENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AND
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS AN EXTENSIVE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
DRY WEATHER WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A SLOW, BUT STEADY WARMUP AS
WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD CLIP THE LOCAL REGION
THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD, BRINGING SOME MORE
RAIN CHANCES AND A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. SIGNALS POINT TO A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN HEADING INTO THE NEXT WEEK WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AND A MORE SEASONABLY SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY ON THE HORIZON. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THAT PLAYS OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL CEILINGS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE. ADDITIONALLY, LOW
CEILINGS CURRENTLY ACROSS SW MO ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND ACROSS NE OK
INTO FAR NW AR BEFORE SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING.
ONCE CEILINGS LIFT THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 84 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 90 67 91 64 / 20 0 0 0
MLC 89 66 93 65 / 20 0 0 0
BVO 82 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 84 59 86 57 / 20 0 0 0
BYV 81 61 83 56 / 20 0 0 0
MKO 87 63 89 63 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 81 58 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
F10 87 63 89 63 / 20 0 0 0
HHW 95 70 93 67 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07
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