447
FXUS64 KTSA 021704
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1204 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEK WITH DANGEROUS HEAT POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF NE OK AND NW AR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN THE VICINITY, BUT MOVING EAST. SURFACE FLOW REMAINS NORTHERLY
BUT LIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE RELATIVELY NICE DAY FOR
EARLY AUGUST WITH HIGHS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN DEPRESSED, MAINLY IN
THE 60S, WHICH WILL FURTHER HELP THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY REASONABLE. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 60S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MORE
PROMINENTLY HEADING INTO MID WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
RESPOND, WITH LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY, AND UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS, MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL BY MID
WEEK FOR SOME AREAS. TYPICALLY, THE TULSA AREA AND ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO REACHING HEAT CRITERIA IN
BORDERLINE SITUATIONS.
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, AND MORE
LIKELY ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A DISTANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SENDS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE WARM AND MOISTENING AIRMASS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE OR TWO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COULD KICK OFF A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVERALL,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY EXCITED, BUT A FEW STORMS
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SEEM REASONABLE. ANY STORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FOCUS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION TRENDS APPEAR PRIMED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AUGUST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT TO BKN CU WILL
GO AWAY BY SUNSET. NORTH WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO NEAR 20
KTS ACROSS NW AR AND AT KTUL DURING THE AFTERNOON, SUBSIDING BY
SUNSET.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 68 96 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 69 96 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 67 96 73 99 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 64 95 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 62 91 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 63 90 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 66 94 71 98 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 65 91 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
F10 66 97 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 68 94 71 97 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30
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