669
FXUS64 KTSA 261758
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1258 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- RAIN CHANCES EXPAND IN COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING LIGHT. MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER ON MONDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MID WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE. EXPECT SEVERAL PERIODS OF
HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A FOCUS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
MID LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL
REGION WITH PERSISTENT LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AIDING MULTIPLE
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH IN AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL FROM THE EARLY DAY CONVECTION WILL
LEAVE A DEFINED BOUNDARY FOR POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
STORMS TO INITIATE ON. THE MOST LIKELY ZONE FOR THIS SCENARIO IS
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POINTS
WESTWARD. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
STRENGTHENING UPGLIDE ATOP THE COLD POOL FURTHER AIDED BY THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH TO YIELD AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS E OK / NW AR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL TRANSITION TOWARD NW TO SE
AND THE EVOLVING CONVECTION WILL SPREAD E AND SE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE LARGELY IMPACTED BY THE EXTENT AND
DURATION OF THE EXPECTED SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT ONCE THE RAINS
END A QUICK WARM UP IS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MOST GUIDANCE DOES MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 BUT ANY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS ON TUESDAY AS
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM OF A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL GATHER THE
REMNANT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM POLLO AND SPREAD THE DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE PERSISTENT TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A SLOWER TROUGH ADVANCE WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES NOW
FOCUSED IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. EXPECT
MULTIPLE CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP IN OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A WINDOW OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS,
HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY ALSO REMAINS IN SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS TIME
RANGE. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH MAY HAVE LINGERING EFFECTS
INTO FRIDAY, BUT ONCE IT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION THEN DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN. POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER COLD FRONT NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR SITES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTIONS WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR
IMPACTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS OUTSIDE OF SOME CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 68 87 67 87 / 70 40 20 10
FSM 68 92 67 92 / 30 60 30 10
MLC 68 95 69 94 / 50 60 40 20
BVO 65 84 65 84 / 60 20 20 10
FYV 65 87 64 87 / 70 60 20 10
BYV 64 82 63 84 / 60 60 20 10
MKO 66 90 67 90 / 60 60 20 10
MIO 65 81 65 83 / 70 50 20 0
F10 67 91 67 90 / 60 50 20 10
HHW 68 93 69 90 / 30 40 40 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
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