953
FXUS64 KTSA 241753
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
- PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY.
- LOW AND CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK INTO WESTERN AR.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING ROUGHLY
ALONG THE RED RIVER, WITH COOL, CLOUDY AND RAIN COOLED AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OK. THE CURRENT ROUND OF RAIN AND STORMS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OK, LIKELY FORCED BY WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT,
IS LIKELY TO END THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TX AND
OK AS LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS THAT IS IN PLACE THERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
TO MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS
NE OK AS IS, WITH SOME THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE
WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
LACY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
BY SATURDAY MORNING, A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO PUNCH INTO OK FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY AFTERNOON,
DECREASING RAIN COVERAGE. THE LATEST CAM DATA DEVELOPS STORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK
INTO WESTERN AR TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE DRY SLOT, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO YIELD A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST AND
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE ENERGETIC SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF AN EXTENDED CROSS-PACIFIC JET. THE
12Z GFS/CANADIAN BOTH BUCKLE THE JET AND CLOSE OFF A 500MB LOW
NEARBY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WOULD WARRANT THE LOW POPS
FROM THE MODEL BLEND IN THE NORTH AND EAST. A STRONG FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER
ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO FORCE CONVECTION UNTIL IT GETS WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG WIND GUSTS,
LIKELY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA, ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KS DOWN INTO EASTERN OK. WINDS MAY
BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY, WITH QUIET, FALL WEATHER TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
LACY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES
OVER MUCH OF NE OK AND NW AR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR SITES. OCCASIONAL
MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS CIGS
LOWER AND MIST/FOG DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK SITES WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WORST. OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, WITH THUNDER
CHANCES DIMINISHING AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 56 63 56 66 / 100 80 50 20
FSM 57 65 58 69 / 80 70 70 40
MLC 57 68 56 70 / 90 80 50 30
BVO 52 62 51 64 / 90 90 60 20
FYV 52 64 52 66 / 80 80 70 50
BYV 51 60 52 61 / 80 70 70 60
MKO 56 63 56 68 / 90 80 60 30
MIO 53 61 53 64 / 90 90 60 30
F10 55 65 55 69 / 90 80 40 20
HHW 57 69 59 73 / 90 80 60 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ054>056-059>061-
064>067-070-071.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page