068
FXUS64 KTSA 092259
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
559 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 555 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA,
NORTHWEST AND WEST- CENTRAL ARKANSAS TODAY AND MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
- ANY RAIN OR STORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE
KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS.
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH
SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY EXCEEDING 110F FOR A SHORT TIME. METEOGRAMS
FROM YESTERDAY INDICATED GENERALLY BRIEF, LESS THAN 2 HOUR, LENGTH
OF WARNING CRITERIA PRECLUDING THE NEED TO UPGRADE. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GRADUALLY EXPANDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST
BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING IN THE
VICINITY WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER SHIFTING TO ALONG THE
GULF COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE FIRMLY OVERHEAD EXPECT
CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR ANY LATE
WEEK RAIN CHANCES TO SHIFT MORE NORTH WITH TIME AS THE RIDGE
REPOSITIONS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, CONTINUED
WORSENING OF DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS RISING INTO THE 95TH+ PERCENTILE
RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY BY NEXT WEEKEND THERE ARE NO REAL
INDICATIONS OF RELIEF IN THE NEAR TERM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY 01Z OR 02Z BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN BY 15Z ON MONDAY. GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 20
KTS DURING THE DAY.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 80 102 80 102 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 76 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 76 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 75 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 73 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 74 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 75 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 76 99 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
F10 75 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 74 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-055>068-
070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-129-219-220-
229.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ001-129-219-
220-229.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...30
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