023
FXUS64 KTSA 210523
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1223 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- MODERATE RAIN/LOW STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED STARTING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK MID LEVEL
WAVE TRACKING EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTHERN
TEXAS DURING THE DAY TODAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE
LARGER SCALE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40,
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER POTENTIAL NEAR THE RED RIVER. RAIN CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY
BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS COULD SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 412
LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP
LAYER FLOW ALONG WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY WILL KEEP
SEVERE CHANCES PRETTY MUCH ZERO WITH THIS ACTIVITY. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN
THOSE SEEN MONDAY WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-40 GENERALLY STAYING
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OWING TO THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
MORE SPOTTY LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE DEPARTING THE AREA AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ANOTHER GENERALLY PLEASANT
DAY WILL BE IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD
ARRIVES AGAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
THROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY BRINGING
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE LOCAL REGION. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE MAIN PIECE
OF JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST REGION AND
THUS MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE CONFINED
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. LOW POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A STORM OR TWO TO INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND A SECONDARY SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK NOSES
INTO THE REGION. IF THIS OCCURS, ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE WHILE
TRACKING TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN SUBSTANTIALLY
CAPPED HOWEVER, SO CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THIS SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE STRONG FRONTAL FORCING CAN
OVERCOME THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND CAPPING, IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW ROBUST THE CONVECTION WILL BE AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF THOSE LIMITING ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS. THE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
HAZARDS HOWEVER, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT OWING
TO THE EXPECTED LINEAR MODE. IF MORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP, THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE FORECAST GETS A
LITTLE FUZZY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETTLES OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE MENTIONED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
DETAILS TO BE REFINED IN LATER FORECASTS. MORE SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE OVER THE AREA AS WELL WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL
LOW INTO MVFR RANGE FIRST ACROSS SE OK WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. LOWER CEILINGS EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO NE OK BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO SPREAD EAST INTO NW AR
WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ONCE THE LOWER CEILINGS ARRIVE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 56 73 64 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 73 55 76 61 / 20 20 30 10
MLC 65 55 74 64 / 30 20 30 10
BVO 74 53 73 60 / 0 0 10 10
FYV 74 52 74 59 / 10 10 20 0
BYV 74 53 74 60 / 0 0 10 0
MKO 69 55 74 62 / 10 10 20 0
MIO 73 55 72 62 / 0 0 10 0
F10 67 55 73 63 / 20 10 20 0
HHW 63 55 74 62 / 50 30 30 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07
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