616
FXUS64 KTSA 242352
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTING
HOWEVER TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVIEST
RAINS IS LESS CERTAIN.
- A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE LATEST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS TRACKED INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY
THREAT AS ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR RATES HAVE BEEN COMMON THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS SOME SUN LIKELY MAKES AN APPEARANCE FOR SOME. A
FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FORM
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN AREAS
UNTOUCHED BY THE MORNING ACTIVITY. THESE STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR AS PWAT
VALUES REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS. THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S... WHILE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTH.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO
PICK UP AGAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH IN
THIS PATTERN, BUT THE CONSENSUS IS THAT ANOTHER BAND OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITHIN A ZONE
OF WARM ADVECTION FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND TRAINING OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS. THEREFORE, HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH TO
COVER THIS TIME PERIOD AND BEYOND AS IT WON'T TAKE MUCH RAINFALL
TO LEAD TO ISSUES ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA POSSIBLY INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE ZONE OF ASCENT
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
AGAIN, ANOTHER BREAK WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY THAT TIME, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A ZONE OF
ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA BY MID AFTERNOON,
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEPENDING ON HOW
THE MORNING ACTIVITY EVOLVES AND WHAT KIND OF BOUNDARIES IT LEAVES
BEHIND, MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GENERALLY FORM HIGHWAY 412
AND NORTH. LARGE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL PROVIDE AN
ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH HIGHER
SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING
TORNADOES AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SO HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH INTO FRIDAY MORNING TO COVER THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE BREAKS AND
NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR ANY LOCATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
MOVING INTO FRIDAY, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCENARIO. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHING MUCH OF THE STORM CHANCES TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL STILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY AND COULD FOCUS SOME SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO BEGIN TO DRY OUT. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RESULT, ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 90S.
HIGH HUMIDITY FROM ALL THE RECENT RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY CAUSE
DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE. A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO REDEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT, BEFORE
SUNRISE, IN AN AREA APPROX FROM KFSM TO KTUL,KRVS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INITIATE AND
DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF CONVECTION COVERAGE
TOMORROW, KEPT PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. TIMING MAY NEED TO BE ADJUST IN
FUTURE TAF UPDATES. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR
WILL BE COMMON IN AND AROUND HEAVIER CORES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
BUT OTHERWISE, VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MOST
PART. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST OK. MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS WITH
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF LIGHT FOG
WILL DEVELOP.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 88 75 90 / 70 30 30 20
FSM 72 91 75 91 / 70 30 10 10
MLC 73 91 78 91 / 50 20 10 10
BVO 67 86 71 88 / 60 40 50 20
FYV 68 86 73 86 / 60 40 20 20
BYV 66 85 72 86 / 50 70 30 30
MKO 70 88 75 89 / 60 30 20 20
MIO 67 86 72 87 / 50 60 50 30
F10 71 88 75 89 / 50 30 20 10
HHW 73 90 75 91 / 40 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OKZ055>071-073>075-154-
172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...67
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