845
FXUS64 KTSA 200512
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1212 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. NEAR
RECORD OR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EACH DAY.
- LIMITED FIRE WEATHER THREAT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY.
- NO MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THRU FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUD.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS. ON FRIDAY, THE LLTR WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT
FROM KS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE ALREADY WARM
NUMBERS THAT WERE OBSERVED TODAY, WHICH WERE 20 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A RECORD HIGH WAS SET AT KFYV
TODAY, AND MORE RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED OR SET ON FRIDAY.
THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK, THUS LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIMIT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
LACY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN
AND FLATTEN OUT A BIT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH SOME
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES. MORE
NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
WINDS/GUSTS WILL INCREASE FIRE SPREAD RATE POTENTIAL, THOUGH STILL
LOOKING LIMITED OVERALL. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT SUGGESTING A DEFINITE UPTICK IN WINDS/GUSTS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OK. NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AS WELL. CURRENT
FORECAST SPREAD INDICES/RATES AND LOW HUMIDITY WOULD ARGUE FOR AN
EVENTUAL RED FLAG WARNING, GIVEN THE FAVORABLE AND ABUNDANT FUELS
THAT ARE IN PLACE. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT OWING TO
POOR MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
GULF. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOLER DAY MONDAY, WINDS TURN BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY, SO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON THE RISE AGAIN. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
WEAKEN THE GRADIENT/WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP
AGAIN THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT NOTABLE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH
THIS FRONT, THOUGH CHANCES LOOK SMALL AT THIS POINT.
LACY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 57 93 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 58 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 58 93 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 50 93 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 57 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 58 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 58 91 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 55 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
F10 58 93 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 58 89 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14
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