781
FXUS64 KTSA 020520
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1220 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
- SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT.
- STRONG WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING WITH INCREASING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR BVO TO OKC METRO AND
BACK INTO NORTHWEST TX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, WITH
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR HAS STRENGTHENED OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD
OF THE STORMS TRENDING LESS FAVORABLE WITH TIME AND EASTWARD
EXTENT. THUS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4" ESTIMATED ACROSS PARTS
OF OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES AND SOME ADDITIONAL THREAT OF
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN EXISTS, BUT FLOODING POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW
DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERSISTENT STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET, AND SFC LOW TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THIS
WILL SPUR AN INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH LIKELY. A FEW ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO
THE EAST AS WELL. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SAVE FOR SOME MIXING OF DRY AIR IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OK. GIVEN THIS THE RH SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO LARGELY OFFSET
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN CLOSE
ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO KEEP A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-STRENGTHENS. WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MORE ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL ENTER NORTHEAST OK AND SURGE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING
THIS PERIOD, WITH WIND GUSTS LIKELY BECOMING THE MAIN HAZARD
GIVEN THE LINEARLY FORCED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS PERIOD
WILL ALSO LIKELY FEATURE AN INCREASE IN HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EVENTUALLY EXPANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE QUIET
WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT
A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND, THEN TRENDING GRADUALLY
UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT THU APR 2 2026
ONGOING LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS E OK WILL CONTINUE STEADILY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT IMPACTS WITHIN THE
REGION OF HEAVIEST RAINS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BE ENDING
ACROSS NW AR TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING OTHERWISE STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 84 68 80 53 / 10 10 60 90
FSM 85 66 84 58 / 70 40 60 90
MLC 84 68 81 55 / 40 20 50 100
BVO 82 63 79 48 / 10 0 70 80
FYV 81 64 80 53 / 80 40 60 100
BYV 80 65 80 53 / 80 40 60 100
MKO 83 66 80 52 / 40 20 50 100
MIO 81 65 78 48 / 40 20 50 90
F10 85 66 80 52 / 20 10 50 100
HHW 82 65 80 56 / 70 20 50 90
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page