092
FXUS64 KTSA 281833
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
133 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 132 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- HEADLINE WORTHY HEAT CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES OF 105-115F. DANGEROUS HEAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- A MORE NOTICEABLE FRONT WILL BRING MUCH MORE PLEASANT WEATHER
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THE H5-H25 RIDGE
CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO,
DROPPING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED OVER NE OK AND FAR NORTHERN AR. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE MISSOURI AND MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IS MOST LIKELY TO FORM OVER
IN THE OZARKS NEAR THE WEAK BOUNDARY FARTHER DISPLACED FROM THE
RIDGE ALOFT. CAMS AND THE GFS SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING
BACK DOOR FRONT, THOUGH THIS APPEARS WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LACY
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHICH IS LIKELY TO LIE FROM
SE-NW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS WILL STILL
BE LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE EAST. MOISTURE
POOLING NEAR THE BOUNDARY IS ALSO LIKELY TO RESULT IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. WITH FORECAST HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS OVER MOST OF THE AREA, FORECAST HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH ADVISORY LEVEL ACROSS E OK AND THE LOWER ARK RIVER
VALLEY. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY TOUCH 110F, BUT ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON
A WARNING GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH CLOUD COVER. HEAT HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT WITH CLOUDS AND STORMS.
INDICATIONS IN THE CAMS AND GFS SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY EITHER
WASHES OUT OR RETREATS NORTH OUT OF THE AREA AND WITH AN UPPER
WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND
WILL BRING BIG POSITIVE CHANGES. THE H5 RIDGE CENTER RETROGRADES
BACK TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE HEART OF THE CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL FORCE A
MORE NOTICEABLE COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH
LOW STORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. BELOW AVERAGE
COOLER AND MORE IMPORTANTLY LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LACY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED/BROKEN MID CLOUDS
ARE FORECAST OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL EXISTS INTO THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY ENTERS FROM
THE NORTH. THE GREATER PRECIP POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE OVER PARTS
OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR KXNA/KFYV/KROG FOR GENERAL TIMING.
WINDS REMAIN VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A MORE
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FORECAST WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 80 100 79 98 / 10 10 40 10
FSM 78 99 77 95 / 10 30 40 30
MLC 78 100 78 98 / 10 10 20 10
BVO 75 99 75 96 / 10 20 40 20
FYV 74 94 73 91 / 20 40 50 40
BYV 74 91 72 89 / 30 40 40 60
MKO 77 99 76 96 / 10 20 30 10
MIO 76 95 75 93 / 20 20 50 40
F10 76 101 76 98 / 10 10 20 10
HHW 75 98 76 96 / 0 10 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-063-068-
069-073-075-172-276-376.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055>062-
064>067-070-071-074-154-176-254-272-354.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
119-120-229.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-
220.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220-
229.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...22
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