103
FXUS64 KTSA 171829
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1229 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING; ONLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
- HIGHER GRASSLAND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND AXIS OF STRONGER UPGLIDE WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
NOON TIME THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
COLD FRONT CLEARS WESTERN AR AND SE OK BY NOON THURSDAY WITH SKIES
CLEARING AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING. DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR WILL
ALSO ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL AND THE OVERLAP OF CURED AND
DRY FUELS WILL CREATE A WINDOW OF HIGHER GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD
CONDITIONS. NE OK WILL EXPERIENCE A LONGER DURATION OF THE
HEIGHTENED FIRE CONDITIONS BUT ALL E OK AND NW AR WILL HAVE AT
LEAST A TIME FRAME DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHERE ANY FIRE
STARTS COULD SPREAD QUICKLY. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET.
A QUICK RETURN FLOW OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
HIGHER GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS. WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER ALSO LIKELY CONTINUES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE HOLE HAS FORMED IN A DECK
OF STRATUS THAT IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO
NE OK AND FAR NW AR. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THIS HOLE IN THE
STRATUS WILL FILL BACK IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BKN-OVC MVFR IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES, THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR
ARE POSSIBLE. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO IFR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SE OK AND NW AR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ONLY TO REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD LIFT AND ERODE, BECOMING VFR, FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 51 59 28 55 / 10 10 0 0
FSM 53 64 30 58 / 30 30 0 0
MLC 54 63 28 58 / 20 10 0 0
BVO 46 58 24 55 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 51 60 25 53 / 30 50 0 0
BYV 51 59 26 53 / 30 40 0 0
MKO 53 60 29 55 / 20 20 0 0
MIO 50 57 26 52 / 20 20 0 0
F10 52 60 29 56 / 10 10 0 0
HHW 55 63 32 57 / 30 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67
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