526
FXUS64 KTSA 150432
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1032 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS BEHIND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES.
- SEVERAL MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
COLD START TO THE DAY WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN DURING THE DAY BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES
ACROSS EASTERN OK. A QUICK WARM UP IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S BY MID AFTERNOON. A SHORT DURATION WINDOW
OF HIGHER GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD RATES COULD DEVELOP ACROSS NE OK
WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWEST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
DOWNSTREAM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL USHER
SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT
PASSES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE WITHIN THIS PATTERN, HOWEVER A
FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES COULD DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MEASURABLE
PRECIP NOT LIKELY. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND FALLING HUMIDITY VALUES. THIS
WILL RAISE GRASSLAND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AREA WIDE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN SEVERAL
LOCAL BURN BANS AND THESE SHOULD BE CLOSELY FOLLOWED AS ANY FIRE
STARTS COULD SPREAD QUICKLY.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN IS
EXPECTED TO PASS DRY THROUGH THE REGION. VERY DRY AIR AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOLLOW THIS FRONT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ONCE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND FEW COLDER VALLEYS
COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WITHIN THIS PATTERN LIKELY REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SO NO PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED LOCALLY. ANOTHER DRY FRONT IS FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AGAIN NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER OTHER THAN A PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH COULD LOCALLY INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOR ALL SITES. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY AS
WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE ACROSS NE OK. FEW TO
SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 24 54 35 52 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 24 51 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 24 54 36 54 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 21 54 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 19 48 30 49 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 20 46 33 46 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 22 52 34 51 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 20 48 32 48 / 0 0 0 0
F10 23 56 35 53 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 26 53 36 56 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43
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