456
FXUS64 KTSA 291110
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
510 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 507 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING, RESULTING
IN WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
- COLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE DECEMBER; A SLOW WARMUP BEGINNING TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- VERY LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
THE ROBUST COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE, NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE, THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS BREEZY AND GUSTY
AS WHAT WAS OBSERVED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH
SUNRISE AND UP TO 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THE BREEZY
WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FEEL BRUTALLY COLD, WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BY SUNRISE.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, MODEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL PURSUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND WILL RESULT IN
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS,
CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES SOUTH OF I-40. WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE TEENS IN THE
MORNING AND THE 20S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SETTLE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT (MONDAY NIGHT)
AS A STRONG 1034-1037MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER EAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL HELP
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
LOCALLY ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME NEW YEARS DAY. OVERALL,
BOTH DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE VERY SLIM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THE ONLY (WEAK) SIGNALS FOR
LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL COME WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EJECTING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. ENSEMBLE DATA FROM THE LREF ONLY SHOW PROBABILITIES
OF RAIN AT 20% OR LESS FOR THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL
MAINTAIN NBM PROBABILITIES (NON-MENTIONABLE, <20%) POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THERE ARE BETTER SIGNALS FROM ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. OTHERWISE, LOW-IMPACT WEATHER AND ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 37 18 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 39 20 47 29 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 40 18 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 36 13 49 26 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 34 13 46 28 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 32 16 44 31 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 37 17 47 30 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 34 14 44 27 / 0 0 0 0
F10 39 18 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 42 21 47 30 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06
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