013
FXUS64 KTSA 041726
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1226 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DANGEROUS
HEAT LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING LARGELY 2 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
AND DEW POINTS 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOOVE YESTERDAYS VALUES AT THIS
SAME TIME. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES MAXING OUT LOCALLY AROUND
105 DEGREES REMAIN EXPECTED TODAY, WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY KIND OF
HEADLINE FOR TODAY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN
OVERALL WARMER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST FEW
MORNINGS, WITH MID AND UPPER 70S FAVORED.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA REMAIN MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE BIGGEST MESSAGING CHANGE FOR THE FORECAST BEING THE
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREAS. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE MAINLY THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
ADVISORY, DEPENDING ON POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHING AND STALLING NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. NBM
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT AND WHERE IT HANGS UP REMAINS IN QUESTION, PLACING A LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412. TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY, ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THURSDAY. LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY, A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, EXISTS
AS MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND A
DISTURBANCES PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN
LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. THE RAIN
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL. THIS COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS
THE RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN, LEADING TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON CU ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS SE
OK AND NW AR. SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST TODAY, BECOMING MORE SE FOR A
PERIOD THIS EVENING. WINDS ICNREASE OUT OF THE SW BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 101 79 100 78 / 0 0 10 20
FSM 99 75 100 77 / 0 0 0 20
MLC 100 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 100 75 99 72 / 0 0 20 20
FYV 95 74 95 74 / 0 0 10 20
BYV 95 73 95 74 / 0 0 20 20
MKO 99 75 98 75 / 0 0 10 20
MIO 97 75 95 73 / 0 0 20 30
F10 101 76 100 76 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 97 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060>062-
064>067-070-071-073-074-176-272.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43
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