062
FXUS64 KTSA 170540
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN A DAILY CONCERN DUE TO DRYING
FUELS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.
- A STALLED WEAK FRONT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED STORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH MONDAY. LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
- VERY HOT WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SLIGHT COOLDOWN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL
BECOME STATIONARY OR VERY SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FESTER IN THE VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO TRY TO
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MONDAY MORNING FROM THE WEST, BUT
WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AND WON'T MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO THE AREA
BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL AT LEAST BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH FOR MONDAY WITH
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-40 LIKELY STAYING UNDER 100 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK. NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR OVER 100 WITH BUILDING HUMIDITY
LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT HEADLINES FOR THOSE AREAS. AGAIN,
MUCH LIKE SUNDAY, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STILL REMAIN DRY,
BUT SOME COULD SEE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
RELATIVELY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S WILL BE WELCOME FOR
MONDAY NIGHT FOR A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE EXTREME HEAT.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
THE FRONT WILL LOSE DEFINITION BY TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BROADENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
HOT TO VERY HOT CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAWIDE HEAT
HEADLINES LIKELY AGAIN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WHILE BROAD RIDGING
WILL REMAIN PLANTED MORE OR LESS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
DRIVE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY PUSHING 110 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY, PROLONGING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT
THE WEEK. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME MORE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THIS TIME, BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. IN RESPONSE, SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES REMAIN ALONG/NEAR THE BOUNDARY
MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND WILL CONTINUE PROB30 GROUP
FOR KMLC. THERE REMAINS LOW POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP OUT WEST TO REACH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY MORNING IN A WEAKENING STATE. HOWEVER,
FOR NOW WILL KEEP TAFS DRY AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF ANY IMPACTS TO
TERMINALS. WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT/<10KTS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. ON SIDE NOTE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MVFR CEILINGS REACHING INTO
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM MISSOURI. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 96 76 103 83 / 20 10 10 0
FSM 102 76 104 76 / 20 10 10 0
MLC 100 76 106 81 / 20 20 10 0
BVO 95 70 103 76 / 10 10 10 0
FYV 96 71 100 77 / 0 10 10 0
BYV 93 70 98 78 / 0 0 10 0
MKO 97 73 102 78 / 20 10 10 0
MIO 93 71 99 78 / 0 10 10 10
F10 97 73 103 79 / 20 20 10 0
HHW 102 76 103 79 / 20 20 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ049-053-070-071-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ119-120-129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20
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