854
FXUS64 KTSA 251126
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
626 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 619 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY
LOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
- POTENTIAL MINOR COOL DOWN BY MID WEEK BUT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY PASS EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM SIMILAR TO ONGOING RADAR TRENDS. COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOW. CORRIDOR OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS OVERSPREAD
THE FORECAST AREA PER 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND 24 DEWPOINT
CHANGES SHOW A RISE OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL
REGION. STEADILY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY AS RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD AND TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND EXPECTED
WARMING YIELDS DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ONGOING HEAT HEADLINES REFLECT THE LATEST FORECAST.
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AR ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING
UPPER RIDGE, BUT AGAIN, ANY COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS FURTHER EASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND A
STEADY RISE IN DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED. DEWPOINT TRENDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN EXACTLY HOW MUCH. DESPITE
THE EXACT VALUES, THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED
DANGEROUS HEAT THROUGH EARLY WEEK AND FURTHER HEAT HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ON PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY ALLOW AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THERE DOES REMAIN A NOTABLE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE SO THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF ANY COOL
DOWN IS UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW AR. HOWEVER, LOW
PROBABILITIES PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, A
MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD WILL PERSIST TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT
AREAWIDE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 99 81 102 80 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 98 79 101 77 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 97 79 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 98 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 94 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 93 76 98 75 / 20 10 0 0
MKO 97 78 99 77 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 96 77 100 77 / 10 0 0 0
F10 98 78 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 96 76 99 76 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ049-053-063-068-069-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ055>062-064>067-070-071-154-254-354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ001-002-129-219-220-229.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43
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