392
FXUS64 KTSA 122255
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 455 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- OVERALL QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
BACK NEAR NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE AS TEMPS CLIMB AND WINDS INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONCERNS WILL REMAIN RAISED ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THE SURFACE HIGH HAS SLIPPED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. PERIODIC GUSTS OF 20-25
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT
MIXES TO THE SURFACE UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AN EXPANDING LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A GOOD 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY'S HIGHS, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT LARGELY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS SEASONABLY MILD TONIGHT, DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WHILE THE USUALLY COLDER
VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THE STEADY WARMING TREND WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTENSIFIES OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH A FEW DEGREES HIGHER ON TUESDAY AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70 ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE GUSTY ON TUESDAY, WHICH COMBINED
WITH THE WARM TEMPS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING HOLDING STRONG OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND
DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE PARENT TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
STRONG ENOUGH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING TO FORCE A BAND OF VERY
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS BAND COULD CLIP
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTS, GENERALLY ONLY A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AS TEMPS DROP BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. FIRE CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ELEVATED SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY OWING TO THE
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WELL, AS ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
COLDER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AGAIN, LIMITED
MOISTURE LOOKS TO KEEPS THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MOSTLY DRY OUTSIDE OF
SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT SLATED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 455 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE GUSTY AFTER MID-MORNING ON
TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT KBVO, WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER. WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARD SUNSET TOMORROW EVENING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 38 67 42 51 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 35 68 43 54 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 37 70 44 54 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 32 68 39 50 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 38 66 40 48 / 0 0 10 10
BYV 42 67 41 45 / 0 0 20 10
MKO 37 68 43 52 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 36 65 41 47 / 0 0 20 0
F10 37 69 44 53 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 35 66 41 56 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30
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