943
FXUS64 KTSA 020457
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1057 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1036 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
MOST RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. OVERALL, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR THE MOST
PART. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WHICH
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
A PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS
EVEN A SPRINKLE OR TWO. THIS WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY BEFORE A WARMUP BEGINS AGAIN SUNDAY
WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY
RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SOMEWHAT GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY
WEATHER OVER THE PAST MONTH AND MINIMAL RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN QUITE SOME TIME. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
JUST HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING INTO
WTX LATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NWRN TX AT 0430Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN VFR ALL SITES, WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSLATES INTO THE
AREA. CONTINUED PROB30 GROUPS ALL SITES EXCEPT BVO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID-MORNING FRIDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY 15-18Z. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE LOW-VFR
CATEGORY TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD MLC AND NWRN AR SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 45 62 36 52 / 40 20 0 0
FSM 46 64 44 59 / 50 30 0 0
MLC 48 68 41 57 / 30 10 10 0
BVO 37 59 31 51 / 20 10 0 0
FYV 45 62 39 52 / 30 40 0 0
BYV 45 57 40 50 / 20 30 0 0
MKO 47 65 39 55 / 40 20 0 0
MIO 42 59 34 50 / 10 10 0 0
F10 47 66 38 55 / 50 10 10 0
HHW 49 68 45 62 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...69
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