696
FXUS64 KTSA 301737
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1237 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- STORM CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH
TRIPLE DIGITS IN A FEW SPOTS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING, AND THESE STORMS WILL POSE A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND WILL ALSO POSE A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY LATE
EVENING, BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE.
A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH A
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AS THE UPPER RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER THE AREA.
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
ALSO RETURN A MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
OUTSIDE OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NW AR AND FAR NE OK, AND PROB30 GROUPS WERE
MAINTAINED FOR AR SITES AS A RESULT. LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE EAST
FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND IMPACT KBVO, KTUL, AND KRVS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AT
THIS TIME, BUT POTENTIAL WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN PROB30S FOR
THESE SITES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE
VICINITY OF KMLC AS WELL, BUT LOW PROBABILITY PRECLUDES MENTION IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 93 73 93 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 72 92 72 94 / 30 10 0 0
MLC 74 93 74 94 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 69 92 70 93 / 30 0 0 0
FYV 69 89 70 91 / 30 10 0 0
BYV 67 87 68 88 / 50 20 10 10
MKO 72 92 72 93 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 70 90 71 91 / 40 10 10 0
F10 71 93 72 94 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 73 92 73 93 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43
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