514
FXUS64 KTSA 031735
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1135 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1135 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.
- RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
PESKY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR BUT CONTINUE
TO BLANKET EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH THIS CLOUD DECK ARE JUST A TOUCH COOLER
THAN WHERE THE SUN IS CURRENTLY SHINING, BUT DO EXPECT A LITTLE
MORE VIGOROUS WARMING TO OCCUR WHERE THE SUN IS OUT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING, SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR FOR MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS, AT LEAST
BRIEFLY. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF TO NEARLY CALM LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP, BEST CHANCES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY. THE CALM AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-40 AND LOW-MID 30S SOUTH OF I-40. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER AND
ARE FORECAST TO STAY UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORKWEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BECOME
DIURNALLY BREEZY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OK, WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH BOTH DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NORTHEAST OK, WHERE WINDS WILL BE BREEZIEST
AND RH VALUES WILL BE LOWEST BOTH AFTERNOONS (30-35 PERCENT). A
WEAK AND DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH, WASHING OUT SOMETIME
TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE OF DEEPENING
WESTERN TROUGHS/LOWS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE AND TRACK ACROSS
THE PLAINS BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY BEFORE CHANCES DIMINISH WEST TO
EAST SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR.
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE
STORM SYSTEM, BUT MODELS SEEM TO PAINT A BULLSEYE OF HIGHEST POPS
AND QPF SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY 1-2
INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST
SETUP, BUT AMOUNTS MAY FLUCTUATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER-
LEVEL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING IFR TO LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE NW AR
TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 21Z. THERE IS A CHANCE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KBVO MOVE IN THERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
WELL. AFTER LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NW AR AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGH
CLOUD WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH
WIND.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 31 57 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 34 59 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 32 60 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 25 57 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 27 56 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 29 55 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 31 57 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 29 55 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
F10 31 58 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 35 58 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30
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