840
FXUS64 KTSA 072328
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY, WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ENDING DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY TO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT BRINGS VERY COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSED THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH.
BETWEEN THE COLD ADVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE FLAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN QUICKLY DROP THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
SOUTHEAST OK TODAY BUT MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.
WITH LOW CLOUDS HOLDING ON FOR MANY AREAS TONIGHT, LOWS WILL NOT BE
AS CHILLY AS THEY OTHERWISE MIGHT BE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR
WILL BE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES WHERE LOWS MAY
BE A BIT LOWER.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST MONDAY WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN WINDS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR DURING THE DAY
MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BOOSTING MAX
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT
WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WEDNESDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE THE SAME PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. IT'S WORTH
MENTIONING THAT THE NAM (AND OTHER MODELS THAT DO WELL WITH LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR) DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
DURING THIS PERIOD, SO THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY THAT WE
DO NOT WARM UP AS MUCH AS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DESCEND FROM CANADA INTO THE
EASTERN US THIS FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH ANY DYNAMICAL FORCING
WILL BE WELL REMOVED, THE DEEP COLD AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE. MOST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS OUTCOME, WITH THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO THE DEPTH AND
TIMING OF THE COLD AIR. WITH THAT SAID, THIS WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE
TO IF NOT THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH,
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA, WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY MONDAY, THE LOW
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO FINALLY BEGIN SCATTERING OUT MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD START OUT
NORTHERLY AND BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY ONCE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 26 46 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 30 48 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 27 50 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 25 45 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 28 45 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 29 43 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 28 46 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 26 44 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
F10 25 48 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 30 50 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20
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