033
FXUS64 KTSA 100445
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIALS AND A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
- TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE MID MAY NORMALS FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MEAGER INSTABILITY NORTH OF I-40 WILL LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME GUSTY
WINDS THOUGH WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS EVAPORATIVE
PROCESSES AID IN ENHANCING DOWNDRAFTS. STILL ANY WINDS WILL
LIKELY STAY SUB SEVERE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS THE COMPLEX AND ASSOCIATED MCV DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD, AT LEAST SOME INTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE STORMS INTERACT A LITTLE
MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN OVER SOME OF THE SAME LOCATIONS.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED
TO INTENSIFY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL ALSO CLIP THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY NEAR DAYBREAK. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND
IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SLOWLY WORM
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. NORTH
OF I-40, MOSTLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE GREATER COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS IS EXPECTED. ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH COOLER AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
GENERALLY QUIET AND WARMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WORKWEEK THIS WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A SUBTLE WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY, BRINGING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH IT. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
MID LEVEL RIDGING THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK, LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
INCREASINGLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
HIGHS WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
SOMEWHAT LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THIS COULD BEGIN A PERIOD OF
MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MORE LIKE MID MAY, WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY INCREASING HEADING INTO THE NEXT
WEEK.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVENING FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. KMLC CURRENTLY HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO
EXPERIENCE IMPACTS AFTER MIDNIGHT, THOUGH MUCH OF E OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR HAS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS, HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VSBYS. BY LATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS E OK AND
INTO NW AR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. THERE IS INCREASING SIGNAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS
SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, THOUGH GUIDANCE
VARIES. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 72 51 77 / 40 60 10 0
FSM 61 76 58 78 / 30 70 20 0
MLC 63 73 57 77 / 60 80 20 0
BVO 56 72 44 77 / 20 50 0 0
FYV 59 75 52 78 / 20 70 10 0
BYV 58 73 51 75 / 10 60 10 0
MKO 59 73 54 76 / 40 70 10 0
MIO 57 72 47 75 / 10 20 0 0
F10 60 72 53 76 / 50 90 10 0
HHW 63 74 60 76 / 50 70 60 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...43
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