291
FXUS64 KTSA 141729
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1229 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS WINDOW.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
PRIMARILY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-40.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND PLEASANT WEATHER BY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE ONGOING RAIN AND THUNDER EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY TO SOUTHERN PITTSBURG COUNTY. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD STALL AND BE THE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
TODAY, INSTABILITY AND LOCALIZED LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR NEAR THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. WIND IS
THOUGHT TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. ANY STORM THAT INTERACTS WITH
A BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP SOME ROTATION.
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
JUST MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE REGION SHOWS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) INDICATE THESE STORMS WILL
PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, INSTABILITY, AND LIFT SHOULD MAINTAIN RIPE CONDITIONS FOR A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AS THEY PUSH SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE CWA, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN, THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AND FAR NORTHWEST
AR. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTH OF I-40
BY DAYBREAK, WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINING NORTH
OF I-40. THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. LATEST RUN OF
CAMS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO HELP SAG THE
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST OK, HELPING GENERATE AN EAST-WEST
BOUNDARY BY THE AFTERNOON. A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS GOING IN THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND OFF
THE DRYLINE, WHICH WILL BE SET UP ACROSS WESTERN OK. INSTABILITY,
WIND SHEAR, MOISTURE, AND LIFT WILL ALL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY IN A CORRIDOR
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, EXTENDING INTO FAR NORTHWEST AR. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A LIMITED,
NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RECORD (OR
NEAR-RECORD) PWATS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY TO
OCCASIONALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL RATES MAY BE INTENSE AT
TIMES, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING TWO INCHES PER HOUR. ONCE AGAIN, THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO FALL NORTH OF I-40, WITH THE
LATEST NBM SHOWING HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS (THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT) FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, AVERAGING
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. WITH A FLOOD WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
PAWNEE, OSAGE, WASHINGTON, AND NOWATA COUNTIES, DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE WATCH A ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, AS WELL AS
OTTAWA COUNTY. THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE FURTHER ADJUSTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS MOVE OVER THE PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN, WHICH MAY
LEAD TO FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING, WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, PERHAPS LINGERING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. A SURFACE LOW
WILL SCOOT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST OK AND SOUTHEAST KS
THURSDAY MORNING, BRIEFLY LIFTING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH AS IT
DOES. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL,
IT WILL DRAG THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AGAIN BY MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR. CAMS INDICATE THAT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS RELATIVELY LOW,
THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT, GIVEN HIGH VALUES OF CAPE STILL AROUND.
STILL THINK THE HIGHER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE NUISANCE FLOODING,
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO HALF
AN INCH, LOCALLY UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ITSELF.
THE PASSING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL RESULT
IN DRIER AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING IT. STRONG POST-
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL BRING A
REFRESHING, AUTUMN AIRMASS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH CRISP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO 40S BOTH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT, AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE AND TREND WARMER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, TRENDING BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE BY TUESDAY.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY
FROM VFR CEILINGS AND RAIN TO IFR. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.THE RAIN AND STORMS WILL TEND
TO DECREASE LATER IN THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
VARIED FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS SHOULD
BE PLANNED FOR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 67 79 49 59 / 90 80 40 0
FSM 71 88 55 66 / 30 40 60 0
MLC 68 85 50 63 / 40 60 70 0
BVO 61 77 43 58 / 90 90 20 0
FYV 65 83 45 60 / 50 60 80 0
BYV 68 84 48 59 / 60 60 70 0
MKO 67 83 50 61 / 60 80 70 0
MIO 65 79 46 57 / 80 80 40 0
F10 67 81 50 60 / 70 80 60 0
HHW 68 87 56 65 / 20 10 30 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ055>061-064-154-
254-354.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07
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