948
FXUS64 KTSA 171101
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 500 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES TODAY BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING 25-35 MPH.
- DESPITE COLDER TEMPERATURES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
HEIGHTENED THIS AFTERNOON DUE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG
WINDS.
- SEVERAL MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR
OVERNIGHT AS AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
NO WINTER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL OR NO ACCUMULATION.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
ADVANCE THROUGH THE FA BY THE LATE MORNING/ AFTERNOON. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BRING EVEN COLDER AIR, AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL STRONG
WINDS DURING THE DAY, WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD, BUT AGAIN NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ALL IN ALL, IT WILL
CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE WINTER SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
30S (LOWER 40S SOUTH), AND WIND CHILLS STRUGGLE CLIMB OUT OF THE
20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE FIRE SPREAD RATES THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH COLD
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP LIMIT OVERALL POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING
FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING GIVEN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
THIS PERMITS LOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE 10S AREAWIDE,
PERHAPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS FAR NE OK AND NW AR. SOUTH
WINDS RETURN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT IS THEN PROJECTED TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE CWA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER COLD WINTER DAY ON MONDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE TO SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST,
THOUGH ANOTHER BATCH OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE +PNA PATTERN SOMEWHAT DE-AMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK, OPENING
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE TO WORK NORTH INTO THE AREA. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
THE IDEA OF AT LEAST LOW POPS ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INFLUENCE THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE COLDER AIR, SOME WINTRY PRECIP
COULD DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO FINISH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE OF A
PATTERN CHANGE LATE NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN MORE
PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MID CLOUD CIG IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AT SEVERAL SITES, ALONG WITH SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUD. WINDS WILL PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING AND WILL GUST
20 TO 30 KTS BEFORE SUBSIDING AFT 00Z THIS EVENING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 38 15 52 23 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 41 17 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 42 13 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 35 10 52 20 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 33 10 46 19 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 32 11 44 20 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 40 12 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 31 12 47 20 / 10 0 0 0
F10 41 13 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 44 17 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30
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