124
FXUS64 KTSA 081724
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1224 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOCALIZED
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE.
- HEAT BUILDS TODAY INTO THURSDAY AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
- STORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS SAME TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST
AND AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US TODAY. A
DIFFUSE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA WITH LEE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HREF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH LOW CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR
AFTER 06Z.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS PARTS OF NE OK AND THE
AR RIVER VALLEY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S, HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 100S THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY WARM INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
(105F+) BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND RELATIVELY BRIEF,
WHICH PRECLUDES ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID, IF
CONDITIONS TREND WARMER, A SHORT-FUSED ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TONIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
PERSIST. A FEW OF THE WARMER LOCATIONS MY STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 80
DEGREES, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING TO
START THURSDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44. ANY
ACTIVITY COULD LEAVE A BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AND LOW RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERALL, COVERAGE CONTINUES TO VARY WITHIN SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE, BUT
AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN THE VICINITY. GIVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR
ALONG THE KS AND MO BORDERS, A COUPLE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THE WAVE PASSES, SURFACE WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY GIVEN A TIGHT
NW-SE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FURTHER, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 100 DEGREES IN THE
TYPICALLY WARMER AREAS (TULSA METRO AND AR RIVER VALLEY). WHILE
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER AS WELL, ANY AREAS IN NE OK OR THE AR
RIVER VALLEY UNAFFECTED BY MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
STILL EXPERIENCE HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT WITH
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION, WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
AN MCS THAT WILL TRACK EAST OFF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE FA, CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO OUR AREA REMAIN UNCERTAIN. CAMS ARE NOT OVERLY
EXCITED AT THE MOMENT, BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN UNDER THIS
PATTERN AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE KS AND MO
BORDERS. ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY,
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES EAST, IT WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
INTO S KS. THIS FRONT WILL TEND TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY AND SAG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL TREND UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN HEIGHTS OVER
OUR AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE FA, BUT WITH A TREND TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS BY MID-LATE
WEEK AS RIDGING EXPANDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES UNDER THIS PATTERN NEXT WEEK, THOUGH HEAT
INDICES WILL STILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MAINLY
DIURNAL LOW CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT, INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, MID AND HIGH CLOUD. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BUT THE CHANCE OF ON-STATION
IMPACTS IS LOW AT ANY ONE PLACE. BVO WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
SHOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, AND A VCSH WILL
BE INCLUDED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THAT ACTIVITY
BUT WILL NOT BE MENTIONED. LLWS POTENTIAL REMAINS LIKELY AT ALL
SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW, BUT PARTICULARLY THE NE
OK ONES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 97 79 100 79 / 20 10 20 20
FSM 96 77 98 79 / 20 10 10 10
MLC 96 79 97 79 / 20 10 0 0
BVO 95 75 98 75 / 0 20 20 20
FYV 92 72 95 76 / 20 10 20 10
BYV 91 73 95 77 / 20 0 20 20
MKO 95 78 97 79 / 20 10 10 0
MIO 93 75 96 75 / 0 20 20 20
F10 96 77 97 79 / 20 10 10 0
HHW 94 77 95 76 / 20 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22
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