128
FXUS64 KTSA 092329
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL HEAT IMPACTS EACH DAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT RETURN LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A LOW SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THAT MOVED JUST
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING REMAINED COMMON ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HEATING INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD CREATE AN ISOLATED
STORM POTENTIAL, THOUGH WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY/COVERAGE. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING.
MAIN IMPACT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
OVER THE CWA. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF MID 90S TO AROUND 105 DEG
REMAIN FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHER END OF THESE VALUES OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALSO THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THUS, WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THESE LOCATIONS.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, LATEST SHORT-TERM SOLUTIONS INDICATE
SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND SPREADING
EAST/NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WEST-NORTH OF THE CWA, THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE
CONVECTION TO PUSH OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT COULD REACH INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE, HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE
GREATER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO REMAIN IN KANSAS, WHERE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SET UP. IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA DOES OCCUR, A GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WOULD EXIST.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER THE
REGION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO GET A PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
FROM A WAVE MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT OF THE RIDGE COULD KEEP CONDITIONS FROM REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF MID 90S TO AROUND 103 DEG ARE FORECAST.
WITH THE WAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND THE PARENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS PROGGED TO APPROACH/MOVE INTO THE CWA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, POOLING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE SETTING UP JUST
WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA, WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN
FORECAST THURSDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF UPPER 90S TO NEAR 110 DEG
ARE FORECAST, AND ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF THE CWA.
ONE LIMITING FACTOR TO THE HEAT WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE RETURN
OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA. AT
THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS MID/LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE
SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION WILL AID IN A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALSO, AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL EXISTS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FRIDAY ARE GREATER OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO GET HELD UP OVER
THE CWA BEFORE RETURNING NORTHWARD AND EXITING FRIDAY EVENING.
AGAIN, A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXISTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A
LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES COULD DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION. WITH THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD,
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO BE INTERRUPTED, THUS
ALLOWING FOR EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
POOLING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL, WHICH COULD INCREASE FLOOD CONCERNS OVER THE CWA. AS OF
THIS FORECAST, MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY THOSE ALONG ANY STREAMS/RIVERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK. IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND.
ONCE THE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO BE
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S/70S EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO SE OK INTO NW AR LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR CIGS MOST LIKELY FOR KMLC. NW AR
SITES COULD SEE CIGS AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN
MVFR CONDITIONS TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL PUT IN
MENTION OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS FOR AR SITES AS WELL AS NE OK
SITES TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, MODEST LLJ OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD
TO LLWS ACROSS NE OK. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION FOR KNOW WITH CHANCES BELOW 20 PERCENT.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LESSEN AFTER SUNSET BEFORE
PICKING BACK UP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 78 92 79 93 / 10 0 0 40
FSM 76 93 79 93 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 78 91 79 92 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 77 92 79 94 / 10 0 0 50
FYV 74 89 76 89 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 73 89 75 89 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 75 90 78 91 / 0 10 0 10
MIO 75 91 77 93 / 0 0 0 50
F10 76 90 78 92 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 76 91 78 92 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055>063-067-154-
254-354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04
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