577
FXUS64 KTSA 101738
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH A
LARGE AREA OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GENERALLY ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER.
- STORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND NEARER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH THE INCREASE IN DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE HEAT IS THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
EVENING, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUING THROUGH 8 PM FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. DEW
POINTS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW THOSE SEEN YESTERDAY AND
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN MUCH OF THE AREA, EXPECT THAT
OVERALL, HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER
THAN THOSE YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS PARTS OF OSAGE
COUNTY, WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG AA WEAK OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY. WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THE TRENDS IN THAT AREA, BUT FOR NOW, THE ADVISORY AREA
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE NBM POPS, WHICH WERE BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS, HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THIS
FEATURE. A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE FAVORED THREAT. THE BULK OF THESE STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET, WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY TO THE NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER NEARER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
HEAT REMAINS AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE IMMEDIATE CONCERNS FOR MUCH
OF SATURDAY, WITH A SHIFT TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREATS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT DAYBREAK
SATURDAY, A BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STRETCHED ACROSS AREAS NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS THIS BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR HIGHWAY 412 BY MIDDAY.
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, AND THE
NBM DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BY BLENDING IN DATA FROM THE 12Z
NAMNEST, WHICH DEPICTS THE EXPECTED SCENARIO QUITE WELL. ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREAS
GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO STALL.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE
EVENING AND SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME ALONG WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FLOW, A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST
AS WELL. MOVING INTO SUNDAY, THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS, WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH.
FOR NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, LEAVING AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMAL AND A BREAK FROM THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES MORE TYPICAL OF
THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD RESULT THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. DAILY,
MAINLY DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO REMAIN THE NORM
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT KBVO APPEAR TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES REMAINING TO
THE NORTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 79 96 75 92 / 0 30 70 20
FSM 77 98 75 93 / 0 10 60 50
MLC 78 97 76 94 / 0 0 50 50
BVO 73 94 71 90 / 10 20 50 10
FYV 75 92 70 88 / 0 30 70 50
BYV 78 92 70 86 / 0 30 60 50
MKO 78 96 74 91 / 0 20 60 30
MIO 73 92 70 88 / 10 20 50 20
F10 77 96 74 92 / 0 20 60 30
HHW 77 95 76 92 / 0 0 20 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-060>062-
066-067-070-071-073>075-176-272-276-376.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ060-066-067-
070-071-073-074-176-272.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220-229.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05
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