313
FXUS64 KTSA 192353
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
653 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
AN ISOLATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
- DAILY STORM CHANCES FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A MCV LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CONTINUED TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LATEST
TRENDS HAVE SHOWED A WEAKENING TREND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS
THE ORIGINAL MCS PUSHES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE LINGERING MCV INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. AT THE SAME TIME, WITH
HELP OF THE RAIN COOLED AIR FROM THE PRECIP, THE INSTABILITY AXIS
HAD SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FURTHER INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIALS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION AND THE MCV, A HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOOD
CONDITIONS. THE GREATER THREAT FOR THIS IS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, NEAR THE RED RIVER, WHERE ESTIMATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE FALLEN.
ALSO, THIS AFTERNOON, WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG AN 850-MB
BOUNDARY POSITIONED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAKER
WITH BRIEF MODERATE/HEAVY RAINS AS THE MAIN INSTABILITY WAS SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.
LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK
TOWARD THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S FROM SOUTH TO NORTH REMAIN
PROBABLE, WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT OF UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ARE FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ITS
WAKE, AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL AID IN LOW
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA. MUCH OF ANY
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND EXIT BY EARLY EVENING.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING MCS WHICH COULD
REACH PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MCS, AIDED BY A
30-50KT LOW LEVEL JET, WILL CREATE A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
THE CWA WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. A LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO EXISTS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
WITH THE SATURDAY NIGHT MCS, A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY,
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION IS FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
ARE FORECAST, AS WELL AS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF UPPER 90S TO NEAR
108 DEGREES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE WITH THESE CONDITIONS, A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT GETS A PUSH INTO THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING FROM A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH/AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON, AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS THROUGH
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
MONDAY. THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
INCREASE INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION, WHICH SETS UP A LIMITED TO
LOCALLY ELEVATED SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNDAY LATE EVENING.
ALSO, MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL CREATE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. THUS, IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT, A HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXISTS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. AS OF THIS FORECAST, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3+ INCHES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS RAINFALL
ON TOP OF RECENT RAINS WILL HELP TO INCREASE FLOOD CONCERNS AND
ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RISES IN STREAMS AND RIVERS. THOSE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG CREEKS AND
RIVERS, SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND BE PREPARED TO ACT IF ANY WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. LATEST INDICATIONS CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLING AROUND/REMAINING OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PUSH THROUGH. THUS, DAILY SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK. LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIALS
COULD DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG WITH A LIMITED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK IN THE 80S ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO THIN-OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AT ALL
TAF SITES. LIGHT FOG/PATCHY LOW-STRATUS MAY TRY TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS MAINLY IMPACTING E. OK TERMINALS NEAR OR
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
LIGHT FOG AT KBVO, KTUL, KRVS, AND KMLC EARLY-MID MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW-CLOUDS MAY BLANKET PARTS OF AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, WITH BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
FAR SE/E OK AND NW AR BY MID-AFTERNOON. ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR
THE AR TAF SITES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS STAY LIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 73 87 75 93 / 10 30 20 30
FSM 73 89 75 94 / 20 40 20 10
MLC 73 89 75 93 / 10 30 20 10
BVO 69 86 73 92 / 20 30 40 50
FYV 69 85 73 88 / 10 40 20 40
BYV 66 84 71 87 / 10 50 30 40
MKO 72 87 74 92 / 10 30 20 20
MIO 68 85 73 90 / 20 40 50 60
F10 71 87 74 92 / 10 30 20 10
HHW 73 88 75 92 / 30 40 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...67
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page