363  
FXUS64 KTSA 231730  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
1230 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025  
 
- HEAT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 TO 109  
DEGREES.  
 
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE  
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MORE HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY  
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  
 
- THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY DRY, BUT A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXISTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF  
TULSA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL LOW  
PRECIP CHANCES DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK AND W AR THIS  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THROUGH TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025  
 
THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-  
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING  
FOR MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES. THE VAST  
MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY TODAY, THOUGH SEVERAL  
CAMS SUGGEST LOW POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS OR WEAK  
THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING/  
EARLY TONIGHT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH, SO  
WILL HOLD POPS TO 10-20%. BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,  
SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN A ZONE OF DEEP  
LAYER MOISTURE/ MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTHWEST OF I-44. IN  
EITHER SCENARIO, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LIGHT AND  
SPOTTY. LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN IN THE 70S AREAWIDE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025  
 
OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE  
TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WITH SLIGHTLY  
HIGHER TEMPS/ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED  
FOR ALL ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MAX HIS BETWEEN 105-109  
DEGREES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/ NORTHERN  
PLAINS WILL DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO KS AND POTENTIALLY NEAR THE  
OK/KS BORDER DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE AS IT MOVES THROUGH KANSAS, AND  
THIS ACTIVITY MAY EXTEND INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OUR FA DURING  
THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED NEAR THE BORDER DURING  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, INCREASING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE  
BOUNDARY EDGES CLOSER. DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT HEAVY  
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS  
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY ENDS  
UP, SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY EVENTUALLY  
DEVELOP, PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF I-44.  
 
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS  
ARE FORECAST WITH MOST PRECIP REMAINING NORTH OF THE FA. THROUGH  
THIS WEEKEND, MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH DAILY  
HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF E OK AND NW AR.  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOW POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SHOWER/  
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS AND PERHAPS  
INTO SE OK SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE FOCUSES IN THIS  
AREA. COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE, SO HAVE OPTED TO USE  
NBM POPS FOR NOW, WHICH PAINT 10-20% CHANCE ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK  
AND W-CENTRAL AR. GOING INTO MID NEXT WEEK, LATEST GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES  
AREAWIDE AS THE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY ERODE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS  
ARE GUSTING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA,  
WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET AND REDEVELOP AGAIN MID TO  
LATE MORNING TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT BVO  
IS NONZERO TONIGHT BUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED, THE CHANCE  
IS LOW ENOUGH TO ONLY MENTION HERE AND HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 77 99 77 98 / 10 10 10 0  
FSM 74 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0  
MLC 74 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0  
BVO 73 97 74 97 / 20 20 20 0  
FYV 71 97 74 96 / 0 0 0 0  
BYV 73 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 10  
MKO 73 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0  
MIO 75 96 74 97 / 0 10 10 0  
F10 74 97 73 98 / 10 0 0 0  
HHW 72 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ054>062-064-  
066>068-070>072-074>076.  
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-  
011-019-020-029.  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...43  
LONG TERM....43  
AVIATION...22  
 
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