244
FXUS64 KTSA 121700
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- LOW STORM CHANCES TONIGHT ALONG THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDERS.
- LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH
A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE MID MAY NORMALS FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS EVENING WILL AID IN PUSHING A COOL FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. TRENDS IN GUIDANCE TEND TO SUPPORT
THESE STORM WEAKENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THEY APPROACH
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONALLY,
FAIRLY DRY LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION AND MEAGER TO NO
INSTABILITY WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BEFORE
MOVING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS, HAVE KEPT POPS JUST BELOW
MENTIONABLE, THOUGH NONZERO FOR TONIGHT. IF ANYTHING DOES MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA, SEVERE CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AND WOULD MAINLY BE
TIED TO GUSTY WINDS DO TO THE DRY PROFILES AND DECAYING NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION. LOWS WILL TREND WARMER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS, BEING PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
GENERALLY LOW IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AND LIKELY CLEAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A RETURN TO NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK, REMAINING NEAR NORMAL FOR
MID MAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
INTENSIFIES TO OUR WEST. A FEW WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL AGAIN BE VERY LOW AND ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A
SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY. ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO STAY WEST OF THE LOCAL REGION, BUT COULD SNEAK INTO PORTIONS
OF OSAGE OR PAWNEE COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT IN A DECAYING STATE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ON THURSDAY,
WITH GUSTS OF 30-35MPH APPEARING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNING
OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. ANY THUNDERSTORM AND THUS SEVERE CHANCES
LOOK TO REMAIN CONFINED WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS AND
INCREASES BY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BECOME
MUCH MILDER BY LATE WEEK AS WELL OWING TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.
A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. WITH BETTER MOISTURE IN
PLACE THIS TIME, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT LINGERS IN THE VICINITY.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS A BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO THE REGION. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN
FOR THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. WINDS THIS EVENING SUBSIDE AND
BECOME MORE VARIABLE WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH. BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE EAST AND NORTHEASTERLY. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 62 82 59 86 / 0 0 20 10
FSM 58 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 58 87 61 87 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 58 81 55 87 / 10 0 20 10
FYV 58 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 59 80 52 82 / 10 0 0 10
MKO 59 83 58 85 / 0 0 10 10
MIO 58 79 54 82 / 0 0 10 20
F10 59 83 59 86 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 55 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20
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