483
FXUS64 KTSA 191736
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- LINGERING SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WILL WIND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND THEN DEVELOPING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DAILY FOR THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH COOLER NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. IT WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHEAST
OK OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE 50S TO
60S FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WHERE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 70S. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS WARM AND MOIST AIR RIDES OVER THE
ELEVATED FRONTAL SURFACE, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT
WITH TIME. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST NEAR THE FRONT FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, AND THEN DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REINVIGORATE ALONG
THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL
BE NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR, WITH LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES, WITH UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S IN THE NORTH, AND MID 70S TO NEAR 80 F IN THE SOUTH.
WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW NBM AS ITS BEEN MUCH TOO WARM WITH THE AIRMASS
OBSERVED BEHIND THIS FRONT. BY THURSDAY, OUR NEXT STORM CYCLE WILL
BEGIN TAKING SHAPE, AS A TROUGH DIVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, MERGING WITH AN EXISTING WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE BOTH LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA, KICKING OFF REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THURSDAY ONWARDS. AS OF NOW, THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH
MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL. IT WILL REMAIN
SIMILARLY COOL TO WEDNESDAY.
MODEL TIMING UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO GROW INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS OF NOW
IT APPEARS THE NEXT MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EACH
OF THESE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HAVE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. IF SEVERE
WEATHER WERE TO DEVELOP, FRIDAY WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY DAY. THE
MAIN FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN WEAK BUT
VERTICALLY DEEP CAPE AND UNUSUALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. OVER TIME, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AND
WHERE IT FALLS, THIS COULD INCREASE FLASH OR RIVER FLOOD CONCERNS.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSTABLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH WEAK TROUGHING KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL AND
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
STORMS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT LOW CIGS BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AVIATION OPS. EXPECT EITHER IFR OR MVFR CIGS TO
PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CAMS SUGGEST
THAT COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD DECREASE BY THE END OF THE
DAY, AND THEN RAMP BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LEFT THE
PREVIOUS PROB30 MENTION ALONE AT MOST SITES, AND THUNDER MENTION
AT THE SOUTHERN SITES (KMLC,KFSM).
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 56 70 60 73 / 70 20 60 90
FSM 65 80 64 76 / 60 30 30 60
MLC 60 77 63 75 / 40 30 40 90
BVO 51 67 56 71 / 70 10 50 90
FYV 59 74 60 75 / 70 30 20 70
BYV 59 70 58 73 / 70 30 20 50
MKO 58 75 62 73 / 70 20 50 80
MIO 55 67 56 72 / 70 20 40 80
F10 57 73 61 73 / 40 20 60 90
HHW 64 79 64 74 / 40 30 40 90
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30
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