965  
FXUS64 KTSA 140837  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
337 AM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AT THE TIME OF WRITING, A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND  
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN  
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED  
ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY 850MB FRONT. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THIS  
FRONT (WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR BENTONVILLE WSW TO NEAR STILLWATER)  
ARE EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL STORM ACTIVITY WITH THE GREATEST  
CONCENTRATION JUST SOUTH OF I-40 AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY  
CONTINUES TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 100  
TO NEAR 500J/KG (NEAR THE RED RIVER) ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE  
FRONT. BULK SHEAR, HOWEVER, DOES INCREASE THE CLOSER YOU GET TO  
THE RED RIVER. WITH THAT SAID, SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF  
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS (PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 TO 1.4 WILL BE  
SUPPORTIVE FOR THE RISK OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL) WILL BE  
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR THIS  
MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL (OCCASIONALLY HEAVY WITHIN  
THUNDERSTORMS) WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS  
MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY WRAP UP BY MID  
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER  
SMALL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. INSTABILITY WILL  
BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND MAINLY CONFINED TO NEAR THE RED RIVER THUS  
IT APPEARS FAR SE OK WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE AN  
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. POOR SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH THE  
AFOREMENTIONED LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP OUR SEVERE CHANCES AT  
BAY.  
 
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS RETURNS THURSDAY  
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS A RATHER STRONG UPPER  
WAVE/LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT  
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY BUT SMALL  
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN  
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM REINFORCING A SHOT OF MUCH COOLER THAN  
NORMAL AIR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER OK AS WE  
MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL ALSO BE WHEN WE SEE OUR  
COOLEST MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES. A FROST WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE  
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WITH MONDAY  
MORNING SEEING THE BEST CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WARM A LITTLE FOR  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL BRING  
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP  
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.  
 
SNIDER  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
TUL 63 45 62 47 / 30 30 20 70  
FSM 64 49 68 49 / 80 40 0 60  
MLC 64 50 65 50 / 50 60 20 70  
BVO 64 43 61 45 / 20 20 20 70  
FYV 60 43 63 45 / 80 30 0 50  
BYV 60 42 62 44 / 80 20 0 50  
MKO 64 48 64 48 / 60 40 20 70  
MIO 63 41 61 45 / 20 20 0 60  
F10 63 48 63 48 / 40 60 20 70  
HHW 65 51 67 50 / 50 60 20 70  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
LONG TERM....21  
 
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