183
FXUS64 KTSA 201745
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS NORTH OF I-40 AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHEN OR IF
THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
LOW IMPACT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT MIDDAY ARE
ALREADY NEARING NORMAL SEASONAL HIGHS IN MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND SPRINKLES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES LOWER
IN HIGHLY LOCALIZED SPOTS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT PRESENT.
SPEAKING OF SPRINKLES, THAT POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-40, IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WITH THE LOW LEVELS REMAINING VERY DRY, SPRINKLES IS ALL
THAT SHOULD RESULT, ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER IF ENOUGH
PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY LEADS TO MORE LOW LEVEL SATURATION THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE NAM, PARTICULARLY, IS HINTING AT THIS
SOMEWHAT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
SPRINKLES OR LOCALIZED LIGHT RAIN MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY,
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF IT
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD FULLY INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
UPTICK A TAD ON FRIDAY FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF I-44 AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA HAS SEEN RAIN RECENTLY,
THOUGH, WHICH MAY OFFSET SOME OF THIS SOMEWHAT. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A STORM SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH BRINGS LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE POOR CONSISTENCY IN WHEN OR
HOW MUCH IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON OUR AREA. IF IT MOVES THROUGH,
EXPECT A DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES, PROBABLY EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED VIRGA OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS
NE OK AND NW AR. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 50 77 51 / 10 10 10 0
FSM 78 51 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 77 48 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 73 46 76 48 / 10 10 10 0
FYV 75 47 77 48 / 0 0 10 0
BYV 73 49 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 75 50 77 51 / 0 0 10 0
MIO 72 49 73 49 / 10 0 10 0
F10 75 49 78 50 / 10 0 10 0
HHW 77 50 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43
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