815  
FXUS64 KTSA 151641  
AFDTSA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK  
1141 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019  
   
..UPDATE
 
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT,  
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019/  
   
.UPDATE
 
 
DISCUSSION...  
FORECAST IS ON TRACK, AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. WELL  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL  
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, THERE IS  
SOME CONCERN ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, BUT  
GIVEN THE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY, POPS DO NOT APPEAR  
WARRANTED FOR NOW.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019/  
 
AVIATION...  
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.  
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT  
S-SW WINDS TODAY.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS  
TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS  
COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HIGH TEMPS  
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF YESTERDAYS  
HIGHS...WHICH WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S TO  
AROUND 103 DEGREES TO BE POSSIBLE. A NON-ZERO POTENTIAL OF A DIURNAL  
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON  
WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LIKE  
YESTERDAY...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA DUE TO THE  
ISOLATED POTENTIAL COVERAGE.  
 
THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS IS PROGGED TO HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH  
TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS POSITION OF THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN  
INTO THE WEEKEND...AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WAVE  
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD.  
 
IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE MOVEMENT THIS WEEK...WARM AND  
HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA INTO TUESDAY WITH  
MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BEING ON  
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ALSO...WITH BEING IN THE  
WESTERN PERIPHERY...SLIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD  
BECOME POSSIBLE EACH DAY THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY. GREATER PRECIP  
CHANCES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE AS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH  
A POTENTIAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY.  
 

 
   
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OK...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION.....22  
 
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