420
FXUS64 KTSA 060528
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA,
BUT GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS, WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S WILL AGAIN OCCUR IN PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. PATCHY FROST WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IN PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND A MENTION HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY MADE A RETURN
TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND SHOULD
SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AFTER DAYBREAK, INCREASING IN SPEED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY/S, MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW IMPACT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY, WITH A FRONT MAKING A RUN TOWARD NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE STALLING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT CONTINUED DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD
PREVENT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. WINDS REMAIN EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. TRENDS IN THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF
THIS FRONT INDICATE A MORE NORTHWARD STALL POINT THAN SHOWN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH WOULD LIMIT HOW FAR SOUTH THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG IT EXTENDS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW ON THE
WEST COAST. THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS BOTH HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 45 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 73 45 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 72 45 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 72 41 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 72 41 71 50 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 70 43 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 71 43 71 50 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 70 43 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
F10 71 44 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 70 43 70 51 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05
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