584
FXUS64 KTSA 011752
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1252 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR. ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING.
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY END UP A TAD HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA WARMING INTO THE MID 90S. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH A HUMID AIRMASS TO CREATE HEAT INDICES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 100S. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
A SOUTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NE OK TODAY. PLEASE MAKE
SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUID AND TAKE BREAKS WHEN OUTDOORS TODAY.
CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IN NE OK AND NW AR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONSIDERING HEIGHTS WILL BE STEADILY
RISING THROUGH THE DAY, IT IS UNCLEAR JUST HOW MANY SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL DEVELOP, BUT 20-40 PERCENT POPS ARE WARRANTED THROUGH 03Z.
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR OVER NW AR ZONES AND EAST OF THE
FA. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR VALUES, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL SUPPORT
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS, WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. EXPECT ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. SEPARATELY, A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EAST AND SOUTH TOWARDS THE FA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENTLY EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE WEAKENING WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT, BUT SEVERAL CAMS SUGGEST THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EXTEND INTO NE OK. STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT ENTER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY INITIALLY.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
PRECIPITATION MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING, A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE OK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RIDGING OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO RAISE QUESTIONS
PERTAINING TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, BUT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR NOW.
GOING INTO MID-WEEK, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS E CONUS. IT APPEARS THIS WILL HAVE JUST ENOUGH INFLUENCE ON
OUR AREA TO KEEP US DRY ON WEDNESDAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS OUT OF THE SOUTH
ON THURSDAY, PROVIDING MOISTURE ADVECTION TO AREA. WITH WEAK WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF DAILY
STORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE,
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED/ISOLATED OVERALL, THOUGH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE A
CONCERN AS PWATS CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN I-44 AND I-40.
ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY FIZZLE OUT BEFORE REACHING KFSM AS THEY MOVE
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME, WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A PROB30 GROUP TO SHOW A
LOW PROBABILITY OF STORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL FROM 00Z THROUGH
03Z. LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NW AR
BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY
AT KFYV. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NE OK FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE,
PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO SE OK AND WESTERN AR LATE IN THE MORNING OR
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT KBVO, KTUL,
KRVS, KMLC, AND KFSM TO SHOW THE LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS ACTIVITY
IMPACTING THESE TERMINALS. TIMING AND COVERAGE MAY NEED BE
ADJUSTED AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN. WINDS STAY GENERALLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 88 68 83 / 20 20 0 0
FSM 73 90 65 85 / 30 10 0 0
MLC 73 92 68 87 / 10 20 0 0
BVO 70 87 66 83 / 20 20 0 0
FYV 70 87 61 83 / 20 10 0 0
BYV 67 82 58 78 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 72 89 67 84 / 20 30 10 0
MIO 70 86 63 82 / 0 10 0 0
F10 71 89 67 84 / 20 20 0 0
HHW 73 93 68 84 / 10 30 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...67
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