360
FXUS64 KTSA 020930
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
430 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 427 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK. HEAT ADVISORY
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, AND MAY
BE NEEDED IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING.
- LOW CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE IN MOST PLACES. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS, WHERE A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1-8 PM THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAY INCH UP A BIT BY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
LIGHTER WINDS EACH NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS, AND LOWERED NBM LOWS A BIT, ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL SUNDAY
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER, WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AREA WIDE WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING LOOKS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA, WHICH WILL RESULT IN NEAR DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING TOO HOT, WITH READINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE ANY BRIEF IMPACTS FROM ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS SE
OK AND NW AR. OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE LOW BUT A
MENTION WAS MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST. CONVECTION WANES AFTER
SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 94 77 94 77 / 0 10 0 10
FSM 95 75 94 75 / 20 10 20 10
MLC 93 75 93 75 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 93 72 93 72 / 0 10 0 10
FYV 91 71 91 71 / 20 10 20 10
BYV 92 72 91 72 / 20 10 20 10
MKO 93 74 93 74 / 10 10 10 10
MIO 93 74 92 74 / 0 10 0 10
F10 93 74 93 74 / 0 10 0 10
HHW 92 74 92 74 / 20 10 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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