618
FXUS64 KTSA 232354
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
654 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS
LIKELY TO STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WITH THE SPECIFICS, SUCH AS TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND RAIN AMOUNTS.
- A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WE STARTED THIS MORNING WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS DOWN NEAR THE RED
RIVER IN THE VICINITY OF A BOUNDARY THAT WAS LEFT OVER FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY MCS. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS
BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH OR IS IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT,
WITH 70S DEWPOINTS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. STORM COVERAGE HAS
INCREASED ACROSS E OK THROUGH THE DAY. WE HAVE SEEN SOME OBSERVED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DOWN IN THE ANTLERS AREA, AND THIS REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY SLOW-MOVING STORMS. THE
MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE CAMS SUCH AS THE HRRR, HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD
HANDLE WITH THE ONGOING MCS OVER FAR WESTERN OK INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE, WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE ACTIVITY FARTHER TO ITS NORTH
THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE ANOTHER MCS THIS EVENING INTO OUR AREA. A
RECURRING THEME THAT HAS SHOWED UP IN RECENT RUNS IS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME LATE TONIGHT TO
OUR NORTHWEST OVER WESTERN KS AND VICINITY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THIS TO COME SOUTHEAST AS AN MCS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN OK, A SHORT FUSED FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR EASTERN OK THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THIS CAN BE
MODIFIED AND/OR EXTENDED IF NEED BE, ESPECIALLY IF THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING MCS PANS OUT.
LACY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
IF THE WEDNESDAY MORNING MCS PANS OUT, THERE WILL LIKELY BE
RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS COULD AFFECT NE OK AND NW AR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF STORMS EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST
DE-AMPLIFYING.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WHICH WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING ALOFT INITIALLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN OVER
THE PLAINS. AS SUCH, EXPECT AN END TO THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN AND A SHIFT TOWARD HOT, HUMID AND DRY WEATHER. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
LACY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THESE CONDITIONS MAY (OR MAY NOT) HOLD UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, THOUGH INTERMITTENT MVFR AND/OR IFR
CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY UNDERNEATH ANY CONVECTION
THAT ROLLS OVER ANY OF THE TERMINALS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION WILL TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH SUNSET, BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH ANOTHER MCS
LIKELY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MID-LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LOW AT THIS TIME AND TAFS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE CONTINUOUSLY AMENDED BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT A
MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR WITH HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS. CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT SOME THIS EVENING AND THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING
TONIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT, PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT TEMPO
GROUPS IN TAFS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF LIGHT FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...LOW.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 85 71 87 / 70 60 60 60
FSM 71 87 72 90 / 70 70 30 20
MLC 73 89 74 90 / 50 50 20 10
BVO 68 84 68 85 / 70 60 60 70
FYV 68 83 69 85 / 70 70 30 50
BYV 66 83 67 84 / 80 60 50 60
MKO 70 85 71 87 / 70 60 30 40
MIO 68 84 68 84 / 50 60 60 70
F10 70 86 71 88 / 60 50 20 40
HHW 73 90 74 90 / 70 40 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ049-053-055>057-
059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-254-354.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67
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