655
FXUS64 KTSA 012325
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT TIMES.
- RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH
A SLIGHT OF SHOWERS EXISTS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MID WEEK.
- THE ONGOING DROUGHT SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN.
LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS REMAINED ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. ONGOING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW AND MID
LEVEL FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE WAS AIDING IN AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE
LIFTING INTO THE REGION WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE, DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO. THE RESULT WAS CONTINUED
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO GET INTO THE UPPER
90S TO AROUND 103 DEG WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 107 DEG
RANGE. WILL LET THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE TULSA METRO AND
SURROUNDING AREAS, AND ALSO THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS RIDE AS IS.
WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S COMMON.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
CURRENTLY MONITORING TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD AS IT IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH
COULD REACH INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACH THE RED RIVER. THESE LOCALLY HIGHER WIND
GUSTS COULD ALSO TICK UP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FORECAST
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR
MAINLY FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEAR THE RED RIVER. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE MEANINGFUL WITH ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. OVERALL, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY LOOK TO BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MONDAY, THOUGH WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT STRESS SHOULD CONTINUE. THUS, A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
ALSO THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO BECOME CENTERED BACK TO THE WEST WITH THE CWA ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY. THERE ARE
HINTS WITHIN THE EXTENDED DATA OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TRYING
TO BACKDOOR INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME,
WHICH COULD CREATE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM OR
TWO WITHIN THE TERRAIN OF WESTERN ARKANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME AS THE RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EITHER WAY HEAT AND HEAT STRESS REMAIN THROUGH
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH LIKELY IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR
EVENTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW TO SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH SUNSET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEREAFTER. FEW TO SCT
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT EACH TAF SITE.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 78 101 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 76 102 76 100 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 76 100 75 97 / 0 10 10 10
BVO 74 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 74 99 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 75 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 75 100 75 97 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 76 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
F10 74 100 74 97 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 75 98 77 94 / 10 10 20 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055-056-060>062-
067-354.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-055-
056-060>062-066-067-070-071-073-354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...67
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