180
FXUS64 KTSA 200527
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1227 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 105-113 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING MINIMAL HEAT RELIEF WEDNESDAY, BUT THE
HEAT WILL RETURN IN EARNEST LATE WEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA,
THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IS POSSIBLE (10%
CHANCE). TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE SLIGHTLY UPWARDS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON
THE WEATHER PATTERN. LOWS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY, WITH MID TO UPPER
90S (PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 100 F). DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH GIVEN
RECENT RAINS, SO HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 F ARE EXPECTED.
ACCORDINGLY, THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE
AR HIGH TERRAIN MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY
WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND LIGHTNING BEING THE EXPECTED IMPACTS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SQUARELY OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH EVEN
STRONGER HEATING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THEIR PEAK TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
HEAT INDICES OF 105-113 F ARE EXPECTED. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH
WAS ISSUED FOR THE AREAS WHICH WILL BE THE HOTTEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT WILL AT LEAST KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL, BUT WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WEST BY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL DO NOTHING FOR
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK TO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. BUT THE SHIFT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO RETURN TO NORTHWEST AR. BY SATURDAY, THE RIDGE WILL
HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO CLIP
THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT IN THIS OUTCOME OVER
THE LAST DAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES ALSO INCREASING. WITH THAT SAID,
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT BY
NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 100 80 103 79 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 100 79 102 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 98 77 102 79 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 100 77 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 96 75 98 76 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 96 75 99 72 / 20 0 0 0
MKO 97 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 98 77 101 74 / 0 0 0 0
F10 98 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 97 76 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ049-053-055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-
376.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ055>058-060>063-066-067-070-071-074-176-254-
272-354.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ARZ129-219-220.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05
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