799
FXUS64 KTSA 181725
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1123 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
- RAIN CHANCES END THIS AFTERNOON; ONLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
- HIGHER GRASSLAND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A FRONT.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR THROUGH 6 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS, DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, PROMOTING
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. BORDERLINE RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS MAY
EXIST FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE FOR
NOW.
COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING
CALM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS. WENT A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NBM FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY THE AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CLIMB. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES
BEGIN TO CLIMB, BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE AS
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO SUNDAY, BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY, AND GRADUALLY FLIP AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BY MONDAY.
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS AND
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY, AND CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING ATMOSPHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S MONDAY WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS (THURSDAY). LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S ON THE WARMEST NIGHTS FOR A
FEW SPOTS. SOME RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS MAY BE
BROKEN. LOOKING BEYOND DAY 7 THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A CHANCE OF
RAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
CORRIDOR OF PRIMARILY VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF E OK / NW AR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES
FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE THEREAFTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 28 56 45 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 64 30 56 41 / 50 0 0 0
MLC 63 28 58 46 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 59 23 55 38 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 61 24 53 41 / 20 0 0 0
BYV 59 26 52 41 / 30 0 0 0
MKO 62 27 55 44 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 60 25 53 42 / 10 0 0 0
F10 61 28 58 46 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 63 32 58 43 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ054>063.
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-010.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07
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