872
FXUS64 KTSA 051106
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
606 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, LOTS OF SUN AND TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. COMBO OF TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS YIELDS
ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT IN SOME LOCATIONS. INHERITED AREAWIDE ADVISORY
AND WILL LET THAT RIDE.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED EXPANSION OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISE WITH H5 RIDGE SLOWLY EXPANDING WEST OVERHEAD. THE HEAT
WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY ON THURSDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY ABATE FRIDAY
AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WITH MODELS INDICATING A WEAK FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE COMBO OF TEMPS AND HUMIDITY SUGGESTS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND ADVISORY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR AREAS OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. FURTHER
EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES.
LOW STORM CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING WEAK BOUNDARY
POSSIBLY AS SOON AS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THRU
SATURDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOOKING FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD, GFS
AND EC MODELS AGREE THAT RETROGRESSION OF THE H5 RIDGE WILL OCCUR,
WITH A MORE NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. A MORE NOTICEABLE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THESE MODELS BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK, AGAIN WITH SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. IF THIS
FORECAST HOLDS, THIS SHOULD BE A MORE SUSTAINED BREAK FROM THE
HEAT.
LACY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
AREA SITES THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 101 80 103 80 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 101 78 102 78 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 99 77 101 77 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 101 73 102 75 / 10 0 0 10
FYV 98 73 99 72 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 97 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 97 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 97 76 99 76 / 10 10 0 0
F10 99 76 101 76 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 99 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ049-053>076.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054>076.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054>076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-019-020-
029.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-019-020-
029.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...10
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