699
FXUS64 KTSA 190817
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 248 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD TYPE.
- PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING AND MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER
RESUMES BY MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR FAYETTEVILLE TO
MCALESTER. THIS BOUNDARY MAY MOVE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AS CURRENT CONVECTION CONTINUES AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HELP TO REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH.
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AT THIS
TIME, BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MID MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
WE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVE BREAK LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON, WITH A MORE GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, BUT LITTLE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT WARM MUCH, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE CURRENT READINGS, AND EVEN BELOW THE
CURRENT READINGS IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE CONVECTION
WILL ARRIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BECOME A MAJOR
CONCERN, ESPECIALLY BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRIES TO LIFT NORTH. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT AN INCREASING THREAT OF ALL HAZARDS
MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT DEPENDING ON JUST HOW FAR
NORTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY, WITH AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MORE SURFACE HEATING MAY OCCUR
PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE ESTABLISHED SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PATTERN. THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY, BUT NOT WITH MANY PERIODS OF
CATEGORICAL POPS AS SHOWN BY THE NBM, AND HAVE THUS LOWERED NBM
POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE
REGION. WITHIN THE CONVECTION, PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MOSTLY SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY, IFR/MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO LIFT BACK TO VFR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WHILE REMAINING
IFR/MVFR ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE NORTHERN BREAK IN THE LOW
CEILINGS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. MULTIPLE WAVES OF MAINLY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY BEFORE CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST. BY SATURDAY EVENING, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE CWA WITH VARYING CONDITIONS FROM
IFR TO LOW END VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE CONVECTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 57 54 68 45 / 100 100 90 0
FSM 69 65 73 49 / 90 90 90 20
MLC 67 63 70 47 / 90 90 90 0
BVO 54 51 67 43 / 100 100 90 0
FYV 65 60 69 45 / 100 90 100 20
BYV 62 58 70 49 / 100 90 90 30
MKO 62 59 70 46 / 90 100 90 0
MIO 57 54 67 45 / 100 90 100 10
F10 59 56 69 46 / 100 90 80 0
HHW 73 67 70 49 / 80 80 80 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OKZ054>076.
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
020-029.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20
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