635
FXUS64 KTSA 201128
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
628 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 610 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
- LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY AND
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED STARTING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING
THE DAY MONDAY, RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH,
GUSTING TO 25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY, IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ASIDE FROM INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TODAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS MONDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. WITHIN THIS REGIME, SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDES THROUGH TX AND S OK. INSTABILITY CONTINUES
TO LOOK QUITE POOR DURING THIS TIME, BUT A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LINGERS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF I-40 AS MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS. OVERALL, RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
LIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL BE NAVIGATING
EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS
W OK. THUNDERSTORM (AND SEVERE WEATHER) POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
INCREASING FURTHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONGER FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL
INITIALLY BE HIGHEST ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NE OK THURSDAY, BUT
TRANSLATE SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW AR AND SE OK BY FRIDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME AS PWATS CLIMB TO
NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS FRONT MAY TEND TO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS MAY ATTEMPT TO LOWER ACROSS SE OK LATE TOWARD TUESDAY
MORNING BUT EXPECT FLIGHT LEVELS TO REMAIN VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 76 52 74 56 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 78 49 77 54 / 0 0 10 10
MLC 75 51 69 55 / 0 10 20 20
BVO 76 49 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 75 49 75 51 / 0 0 10 10
BYV 74 52 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 75 49 71 54 / 0 0 10 10
MIO 73 50 73 54 / 0 0 0 0
F10 74 50 68 54 / 0 0 20 10
HHW 73 50 65 54 / 0 10 30 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07
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