173  
FGUS71 KCLE 132008  
ESFCLE  
OHC005-007-033-035-043-055-063-075-077-083-085-093-095-099-101-  
103-117-123-133-139-143-147-151-153-155-169-173-175-PAC039-049-  
202015-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
308 PM EST THU FEB 13 2020  
 
...NEAR NORMAL RIVER FLOOD RISK THROUGH EARLY MARCH AND ABOVE  
NORMAL LAKESHORE FLOOD RISK THROUGH SUMMER...  
 
THIS IS THE FORTH FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON. FLOOD  
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS THROUGH EARLY SPRING TO  
SUMMARIZE BASIN CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR  
FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST  
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND WATER  
EQUIVALENT, CREEK AND RIVER LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE ON THEM,  
ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.  
FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS EVEN  
WITH A BELOW NORMAL OUTLOOK.  
 
   
..CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY
 
 
 
RIVER FLOOD RISK ACROSS THE REGION IS NEAR NORMAL. A WARM WINTER  
HAS PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP, BUT ONLY HALF OF THE NORMAL  
SNOWFALL. AS A RESULT THERE IS VERY LIMITED STORED WATER IN  
SNOWPACKS. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THE GROUND IS AT OR ABOVE  
FREEZING. STREAMFLOWS REMAIN ELEVATED.  
 
LAKE ERIE REACHED RECORD HIGH WATER LEVELS FOR FEBRUARY THIS WEEK.  
THE LAKE ROSE 5 INCHES IN JANUARY ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY  
CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE), MAKING IT 7 INCHES HIGHER THAN LEVELS  
LAST YEAR AT THIS SAME TIME.  
 
   
..SNOWPACK
 
 
 
A RECENT SNOW AND ICE EVENT LEFT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAKE  
ERIE DRAINAGE BASIN. A PROJECTED COLD SNAP AND SUBSEQUENT LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN SNOW DEPTHS.  
OVERALL STORED WATER IN THE SNOWPACK IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN BELOW  
0.25 INCHES INTO EARLY MARCH.  
 
   
..GROUND CONDITIONS
 
 
 
STREAMFLOWS WERE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE ERIE  
AND OHIO RIVER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. SOIL CONDITIONS WERE MAINLY  
FROZEN IN THE LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE BASINS, BUT ABOVE FREEZING IN  
THE OHIO RIVER DRAINAGE BASIN. FORECASTS FAVOR CONTINUED FREEZING  
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK, HOWEVER ANOTHER THAW IS PROJECTED  
FOR NEXT WEEK. RESERVOIR LEVELS WERE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
WINTER GUIDE CURVES. THERE REMAINS A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF FLOOD  
STORAGE AVAILABLE. THERE REMAINS NO RIVER ICE.  
   
..TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
 
 
 
THE OUTLOOKS FOR THE COMING WEEKS TO MONTHS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION. IN THE LATER PART OF THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST FAVOR  
ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER COMING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE  
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL FAVOR HEAVY RAIN AND AN INCREASED FLOOD  
RISK MAINLY IN THE OHIO RIVER DRAINAGE BASIN, INCLUDING THE  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA. LOOKING INTO MARCH AND LATER  
SPRING THE OUTLOOKS AGAIN FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ALL CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS  
THROUGH THE REST OF SPRING.  
 
   
..FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
 
 
 
FLOOD RISK DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE GREAT  
LAKE DRAINAGE BASIN, AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE OHIO RIVER DRAINAGE  
BASIN. CURRENT GROUND CONDITIONS ALONE WOULD FAVOR A NEAR NORMAL  
TO BELOW NORMAL FLOOD RISK DUE TO A LACK OF A SNOWPACK. HOWEVER,  
THE WETTER THAN NORMAL FORECASTS GOING INTO EARLY MARCH AND  
THROUGH SPRING DOES FAVOR AT LEAST A NORMAL FLOOD RISK GOING  
FORWARD.  
 
FOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES, THE FLOOD RISK IS ELEVATED. THE USACE  
WATER LEVELS PROJECTIONS FOR LAKE ERIE INDICATE NEAR RECORD WATER  
LEVELS FOR THE NEXT FOUR MONTHS. THE LAKE LEVELS ARE PROJECTED TO  
RISE THROUGH SPRING AND REMAIN NEAR RECORD LEVELS WELL INTO  
SUMMER.  
   
..ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
 
 
 
REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR SPECIFIC  
LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION CAN BE FOUND ON THE  
INTERNET AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CLE. SINCE CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE, PLEASE  
REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND STATEMENTS FOR  
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab PA Page Main Text Page