069
FXUS61 KBGM 081117
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
617 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY BRINING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROVIDING FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME OF THE CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP FOR SEVERAL
HOURS TODAY LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50.
HOWEVER, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO
TRACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIFTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE NY
THRUWAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START AS A WINTRY MIX WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. WARM AIR SHOULD WIN OUT WITH A FAIRLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 40'S AND
50'S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD END UP AROUND 1/2 INCH FOR MOST OF
THE REGION SO, NO CONCERN FOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP OFF SHARPLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT IN THE EVENING TO AROUND FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS A RESULT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO FEATURE FAIRLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE
ABNORMALLY COLD AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE 30'S. A
COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND COLD WILL GIVE US OUR FIRST TASTE OF
WINTER. LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE SHOULD GET INVOLVED RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. LOCATIONS JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS USUAL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES IN A BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE REGION. SOME REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40'S IS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS. STILL TEMPERATURES INDICATE A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW HERE. SOME BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH DISTURBANCE AND
OR WEAK COLD FRONT THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, MAINLY LEANING TOWARDS VFR. AVP HAS DEVELOPED
SOME LOW IFR CEILINGS, WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 13Z
OR SO. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR
RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN SHOWERS COMING IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN MOVING IN, ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...KL
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