855
FXUS61 KBGM 142255
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
655 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS SYSTEMS
APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
600 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER FOR THIS
EVENING, BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID.
300 PM UPDATE...
STAYING DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SO FAR, BUT A TERRAIN-
INDUCED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS CENTRAL NY HAS BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE SOME STRAY, SHORT-LIVED SPRINKLES. NO REAL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED, AND AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING, THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN LIGHT UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
FOR SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SLOWLY RECEDE TO OUR
NORTHEAST, AND AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO WESTERN PA, A FEW
SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ACTIVITY IS LOOKING QUITE LIMITED
AS MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE MORE TO OUR
SOUTH, INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS LINGER OVERNIGHT, WHILE TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
330 PM UPDATE
A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIOD EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS
AND WEAK FRONTS MOVE THROUGH ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEE BELOW FORE MORE DETAILS:
SUNDAY: A MOIST, LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME/MARINE AIR
WILL PUSH INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST, HUMID AND COOL
ACROSS THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS MOST OF THE DAY. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN POCKETS OF DRIZZLE IN THESE
LOCATIONS...HIGHS ONLY TOP OUT BETWEEN 68-75 HERE. FURTHER WEST
(WEST OF I-81 AND NORTH OF I-88) EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
TO EITHER NOT MAKE IT IN, OR SLOWLY BREAK UP BY LATE MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S AND CREATE MORE INSTABILITY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO IGNITE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS....
ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES REGION. DON'T THINK
SUNDAY WILL BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE LOCATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW AND IT'S PROXIMITY
TO THE EAST COAST. IF THIS LOW SHIFTS ANY FURTHER NW, IT COULD
MEAN MORE RAIN FOR THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. THE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE MOVING
FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE REGION.
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL BE IN BETWEEN MAIN SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. THEREFORE, THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR EMBEDDED T'STORMS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BINGHAMTON
ACROSS CNY. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY, PERHAPS 300-600 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND ABOUT 30-40 KTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD BRING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED T'STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. TIMING TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW, HAVE 30-50 POP FOR
T'STORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS IT SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S. MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND
SURFACE FRONT SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 50S OR LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
330 PM UPDATE
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA UNDER A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS UP NORTH DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY
AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE
PARTLY SUNNY AND A LITTLE COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS
CNY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN NE PA. DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID-50S...SO AGAIN, MUCH DRIER FEELING. IT COULD BE
A LITTLE BREEZY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 8-15 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS
WITH LOWS 50-55 FOR MOST LOCATIONS (UPPER 50S STILL WYOMING
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES).
OUR AREA IS THEN BETWEEN A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STILL UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A WEAK WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, IT'S
LOOKING DRY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES
BACK UP TO SEASONAL LEVELS. THE TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS
THE FRONT WASHING OUT AND REALLY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES,
WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING A MORE WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS OR T'STORMS ON THURSDAY UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 1-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY (LOW TO MID-80S FOR MOST).
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY NEXT FRIDAY, WITH THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWING DRY WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, THE GFS BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS UP INTO
OUR NE PA ZONES...STUCK CLOSE TO THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR THIS
PERIOD CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY...THIS GAVE JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS THURSDAY FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING, BUT WITH
HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY
LEAD TO MVFR OR TEMPORARY IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
THICKEN AT KBGM, KELM AND KAVP THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA, BUT ANY BKN
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SUN.
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BUT REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 4 TO 7 KTS
SAT AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR KELM. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HLC
NEAR TERM...BJG/HLC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...DJP/MJM
AVIATION...BJT/HLC
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