878
FXUS61 KBGM 050008
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
708 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT, VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO IN SOME AREAS. AFTER A COLD DAY ON FRIDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS
PUSH THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL
SOON COMPLETELY CLEAR THE AREA. AS EXPECTED, SOME SNOW SQUALLS
DID DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
NY. SEVERAL SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS WERE ISSUED THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-81 AND I-88
CORRIDORS. THE THREAT FOR SNOW SQUALLS IS NOW QUICKLY
DIMINISHING AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN, LEAVING BEHIND SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF
ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES, WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THOSE AREAS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES UNTIL 7PM, WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS.
THE MAIN STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE VERY COLD AIR THAT WILL
QUICKLY SPILL INTO THE REGION. NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE
LARGE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. BELOW ZERO READINGS FOR LOWS ARE
LIKELY IN THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS OF ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE
CATSKILLS. WHILE WINDS ARE GUSTY DURING THE DAY TODAY, THEY WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES IN.
WIND CHILLS WILL GET NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (-15F)
FOR THOSE AREAS, BUT WILL LIKELY FALL A BIT SHORT, OR ONLY HAVE
A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS REACH CRITERIA. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
WFOS BUF AND ALY, IT WAS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THIS REASON.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER
RETURN FLOW TO TAKE HOLD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOW SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY.
OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL USHER IN ANOTHER COLD
AIRMASS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO
CLOSER TO NORMAL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, BUT STILL A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
OTHERWISE, ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MULTIPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DESPITE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR NUISANCE
SNOW IN THE LONG TERM, NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE MINOR.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS QUICKLY WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS AND VIS AT TIMES PERSISTING IN CNY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ITH AND BGM HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT POTENTIAL IFR WITH
SOME FINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WITH HOW NARROW THE BAND IS IT
MAY MISS THE TERMINALS SO NO IFR WAS ADDED BUT MAY BE AMENDED IN
LATER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z AND
REMAIN VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AVP
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME MVFR CIGS TRY AND SNEAK NORTH WITH
A MARINE LAYER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT MAKES IT OVER THE
POCONOS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AT THE
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS APPROACHES THE REGION.
MONDAY...BECOMING MAINLY VFR, BUT LINGERING RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND/OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG
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