981
FXUS61 KBGM 191753
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE FINGER LAKES FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS. AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WERE ALSO
INCREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT STALLS IN CENTRAL
PA WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED IN NEPA TOMORROW.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FOR THE LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DAY TIME HEATING, BETTER SURFACE BASED CAPE
FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NEPA WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT IS AROUND 30
KNOTS SO IF A STORM CAN GET TALL ENOUGH TO GET INTO THE HIGHER
WINDS ABOVE AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET, SOME SMALL HAIL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD HUMIDITY ALOFT WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP A STRONG DOWNBURST SO
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. TONIGHT WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME CLEARING AT TIMES, WIDESPREAD VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
TOMORROW, THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH TODAY LOOKS TO STALL
SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL PA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROPAGATING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A STRIP OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG ITS
WEST TO EAST PATH. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL STALL BUT IT COULD BE DRAPED ACROSS A PORTION OF
NEPA. IF IT DOES, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
WYOMING VALLEY INTO THE POCONOS. EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL RATES DONT
LOOK TO BE TOO HIGH, RUNOFF RATES WILL BE HIGHER THAN TYPICAL
DUE TO RECENT RAINS SO SOME SMALLER STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY
APPROACH BANK FULL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TOMORROW
EVENING, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS PROGRESS SOUTH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. MORNING FOG WILL BE COMMONPLACE WITH THE
LONGER NIGHTS AND CLEAR SKIES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH DIGS IN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE RAIN COVERAGE AS THE
500 MB TROUGH IS TRYING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. SOME OF THE
MODELS HAVE A STRONGER SLOW MOVING LOW NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST
WITH AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW. TRENDS
HAVE BEEN BRINGING SOME OF THIS RAIN INTO NEPA AND EVEN INTO THE
CATSKILLS. IF THIS LOW STAYS TO THE SOUTH, ONLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT HELPING LEAD
TO AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION WITH DAY TIME HEATING. THE GREAT
LAKES ARE WARM ENOUGH WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
AROUND 5 TO 10C TO GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOWERS IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE,
BUT ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW.
BY LATE TONIGHT, EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, POST-FRONTAL LOW
CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW,
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING IFR-OR-WORSE RESTRICTIONS IS HIGHEST AT
KELM, BUT ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KITH AND POSSIBLY KBGM.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; AREAS
OF MORNING FOG, ESPECIALLY NEAR KELM.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...BJG
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