117
FXUS61 KBGM 182328
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
728 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED FOR TONIGHT, MAINLY WHERE SKIES WILL
CLEAR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND..
2) SHOWERS RETURN BY SUNDAY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WHILE SKIES WERE SLOW TO CLEAR THIS MORNING, SKIES ARE NOW SUNNY.
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED BUT THOSE WILL DISSIPATE LATE
TODAY. TONIGHT, HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NY LATE TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF
THIS, THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
OFF SHARPLY EXCEPT WHERE SKIES EVENTUALLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE TUG HILL AND WYOMING VALLEY. THIS RESULTED
IN SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S TONIGHT, THOUGH NOT QUITE COOL
ENOUGH FOR FROST. FOG IS ALSO LOOKING UNLIKELY TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS
WILL BE TOO DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN PLACE TO START THE WEEKEND. SOME PERIODS
OF SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN
TODAY, ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY KICKING OFF SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY, SO ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DESPITE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
STORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOPING. WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE REGION IN
A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE, PWATS WILL PEAK
BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2 INCHES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL NEAR 12K FEET.
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BUT THE HIGH PWATS AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVIER SHOWERS.
GUIDANCE IS SPREAD ON EXACTLY WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
BE, THOUGH THE GENERAL MEAN FOCUSES ON THE TWIN TIERS AND INTO THE
CATSKILLS. NBM GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE REASONABLE DURING THIS UPDATE
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF QPF FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY EVENING WITH POCKETS OF HIGHER TOTALS OF 2+ INCHES. THE EXACT
LOCATIONS OF THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON THE SYSTEM'S TRACK.
THE TWIN TIERS WOULD BE MOST VULNERABLE TO HYDRO ISSUES AS SOIL
MOISTURES ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION
WHEREAS NORTHERN AREAS OF CENTRAL NY WERE RATED ABNORMALLY DRY IN
THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR. WITH ALL THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR ANY FLASH FLOOD ISSUES THROUGH SOME PONDING IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRAGS A
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AIR BACK IN FOR MONDAY. BEING IN ZONAL FLOW, SOME PASSING
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PA AND THE
CATSKILLS. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OF EASTERN CANADA
WILL THEN COMPETE WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
EARLY IN THE WEEK AND STILL UNDER ZONAL FLOW, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE LITTLE BY WEDNESDAY. EAST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND, SUPPORTING SHOWERS MIDWEEK. THE UPPER LOW
BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE UP THE COAST WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
THE FIRST EXTENDED TASTE OF FALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE 50S AND 60S BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 30S AND
40S AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER PATTERN. DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE SURFACE, WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. THIS DRY AIR COMBINED WITH WINDS
MODELED TO REMAIN ACTIVE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND A BROKEN
DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION LIMITING COOLING SHOULD KEEP
FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SLIM
CHANCE FOR LIFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AT ELM, BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP ITS DEVELOPMENT AT BAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...RAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PERIODS OF IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/DK
AVIATION...JTC
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