077
FXUS61 KBGM 011756
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION FOR
TONIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BELOW GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COOL AND WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO FROST DURING THE
MORNINGS.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN, ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY.
3) TEMPERATURES THEN FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE
INITIALLY QUITE DRY SO IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME BEFORE RAIN BEGINS
TO REACH THE GROUND. WHERE IT HAS RAINED UPSTREAM, TEMPERATURES ARE
STUCK IN THE 40S AND EVEN 30S, SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TAKE A
DIP ONCE THE RAIN BEINGS IN THE AREA. WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
DEPARTING RAIN SHOWERS, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. WITH COLDER
AIR OVERHEAD AND LIGHT WINDS, FROST IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE WYOMING VALLEY WHERE SKIES
WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR, SO NO HAZARDS WERE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOT MOVING MUCH BY SATURDAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME POP UP SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. NBM GUIDANCE WANTS TO KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT WITH SOME
DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. GIVEN THAT THE CAMS AND SOME OF THE
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW SOME ACTIVITY, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF CONSALL, CONSHORT, AND
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP, IT SHOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE COLD AIR MASS WILL DIG DEEPER SOUTH AND WITH
SKIES CLEARING, THERE WILL LIKELY BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. DUE
TO THIS, TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED USING THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE. AS
A RESULT, THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY BUT WAS NOT ISSUED YET FOR THE ACTIVE NY COUNTIES
GIVEN THAT THERE IS AN ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS HIGHS WILL
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S, THOUGH LOW 60S MAY BE REACHED IN A FEW
VALLEY LOCATIONS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A DISTURBANCE THEN CLIPS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND WOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO CENTRAL NY. WITH
THE COLD AIR RETREATING NORTHWARD, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE AS COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
ON MONDAY AND THEN UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY. A LOW OVER
CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST MONDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MAINLY DRY ON MONDAY THOUGH SOME POP-UP AFTERNOON SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM, AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL BUT EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND THAT WILL DETERMINE
HOW MUCH RAIN SOME WILL SEE. THOSE FURTHER EAST HAVE POTENTIAL TO
SEE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR A BIT LONGER IN THE DAY BEFORE THE FRONT
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, NBM GUIDANCE WAS
FAVORED FOR THIS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLOWLY INCHES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT
AND FINALLY PULLS THE FRONT OUT OF THE REGION AS THE LOW CURVES BACK
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY. TO ADD TO THE UNSETTLED
PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S/40S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
A BATCH OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z TODAY, WHICH
WILL BRING MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE RESTRICTIONS TO ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE EVENING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOLLOWING THESE
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CEILINGS AND
POTENTIALLY VISBYS LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MAINLY VFR, BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ044-047.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ015>018.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...KL
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