124
FXUS61 KBGM 181109
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
709 AM EDT MON OCT 18 2021
SYNOPSIS
COOLER WEATHER WITH ON AND OFF LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING, THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH BY LATER
IN THE DAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN TUESDAY,
AS HIGHS REACH BACK INTO THE 60S. THE NEXT SHOT OF RAIN ARRIVES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
437 AM UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE CHAIN OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/VORT MAXES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH PARKED
OVER QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE (FOR US) IS THE ONE ROLLING INTO EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS
ACROSS NY STATE, JUST INLAND OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE ISN'T
MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, WINDS DO SHIFT
FROM THE W TO NW, AND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT COOLING JUST ALOFT,
PARTICULARLY AT 850 MB. ALSO OF NOTE IS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ROLLING INTO NE PA THAT WAS NOT WELL HANDLED BY MODELS
OVERNIGHT, AND IS SOON TO BRING SOME BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
WYOMING VALLEY.
EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN PRECIP COVERAGE AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
AN AREA NORTH AND EAST OF A PEO-BGM LINE (AND ON INTO OTSEGO AND
DELAWARE COUNTIES).
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
DIMINISH, BUT WILL NONETHELESS REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED DOWNWIND
OF THE LAKES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL NW
WINDS, THE MOST FAVORED AREA WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CAYUGA,
EASTERN TOMPKINS, ONONDAGA, AND CORTLAND COUNTIES. THOSE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT FRESH AT TIMES, GUSTING TO AROUND
20-25 MPH.
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT, WITH THE MOST
CLEARING OCCURRING WEST OF I-81 WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT, INTERRUPTING THE LAKE TRAJECTORY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LIGHTER OUT THAT WAY AS WELL, THOUGH WINDS
SHOULD BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH FOG. STILL,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER-30S, WITH SOME SHELTERED
AND TYPICALLY- COLDER VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS REACHING FOR THE MID-
30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE CORE OF THE COLDER
AIR ALOFT EAST OF THE AREA, WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY AREA-WIDE ON TUESDAY. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE
MIDDLE-60S MAINLY WEST OF I-81, WITH LOWER-60S EAST, AND UPPER-
50S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
400 AM UPDATE
STARTING OFF QUIET THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE JUST TO
OUR SOUTH, ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY AND MILD WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER
70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE'LL HAVE LOW HUMIDITY AND A NICE WESTERLY
BREEZY AT 6-12 MPH, SO OVERALL A VERY PLEASANT FALL DAY WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION,
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE; MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF BINGHAMTON...MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN, IN THE MID-40S TO LOWER 50S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTING
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY, AS OUR FORECAST AREA ENTERS THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING LOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
BE PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND BREEZY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION.
LATER IN THE DAY THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. EXACT
TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
SLOWED IT DOWN BY A FEW HOURS. OVERALL, EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES LATE IN THE DAY...THEN A CHANCE FOR
LATE DAY SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS THE I-81 CORRIDOR...BUT THESE MAY
HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNSET. MINOR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY NOTED
IN THE GUIDANCE, SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...
ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO
COVER THIS. ANOTHER WARM DAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S, DUE TO THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ON 6-12 MPH
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHWEST, UP ACROSS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT; THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNY. SIMILAR OVER NIGHT LOWS BACK DOWN
IN THE MID-40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST, WEST AND EVENTUALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 MPH, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
400 AM UPDATE
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AND MORE FALL LIKE
WEATHER FOR CNY AND NE PA. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS OF THE FORECAST IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE: A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW STARTS OUT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
SLOWLY SPINNING AND DROPPING SOUTH/EAST LATER SATURDAY, SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE OTHER, HARD TO TIME, SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND, OR RIDING THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS
CLOSED LOW.
OVERALL, EXPECT COOLER BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY...BUT A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR CNY. HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S WITH A COOL NORTHWEST WINDS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED AROUND +3 C...SO NOT VERY COLD YET. COOLER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL ZIP ALONG, PERHAPS INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...IF THIS LOW DOES DEVELOP, THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON IT TRACK AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. OVERALL, THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEST-SOUTH WEST OUT AHEAD OF THE EXPANSIVE,
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. SO EVEN THROUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COOL ENOUGH (+0C) TO GET THE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
GOING; RIGHT NOW THE DATA SHOWS MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING
NORTH/WEST OF OUR CWA.
THE CURRENT BEST TIMING ESTIMATE WOULD BE FOR THE UPPER LOW TO PASS
BY JUST TO OUR NORTH EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA, WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING
TO AROUND -5C SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. WENT ABOVE NBM POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT, SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW GOES
OVER THE WARM LAKES...EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BE A
GOOD BET. DID EVEN START TO MIX IN SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN CNY. RIGHT NOW THE BLENDED GUIDANCE DRIES THINGS OUT
BY NEXT MONDAY, BUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING THAT
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING TROUGH...THEREFORE I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CLOUDS AND
EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LINGER A BIT LONGER.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S EACH DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AREAWIDE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH CEILINGS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR, BUT
LIKELY STEADYING OUT IN THE MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING AS
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LARGELY
MODULATED BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES DROPPING INTO THE
AREA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH MID-MORNING, WITH
SYR AND RME MOST FAVORED FOR RAINFALL. THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT DIMINISHES, AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO, DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
TOWARDS THE EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20 AND 24 KNOTS, DIMINISHING BEFORE SUNSET.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT-BUT-STEADY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY DUE TO THE NEXT
ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS STARTING LATER ON THURSDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...MPH
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