392
FXUS61 KBGM 081756
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EST THU DEC 8 2022
SYNOPSIS
REMAINING CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AROUND THE
REGION INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT; ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
NY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH DRY, SEASONABLE
AND PARTLY SUNNY WEATHER EXPECTED. SUNDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY, THEN DRY WEATHER LIKELY
RETURNING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
1030 AM UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT, AS COLD NW UPSLOPE FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND
FINGER LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR
DRIZZLE INTO THIS EVENING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SLOWLY SHIFTS
WEST ACROSS CNY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS MORE NORTHERLY,
AND EVENTUALLY NNE LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER
STEADY TODAY, PERHAPS NUDGING UP 2-4 DEGREES FROM CURRENT
READINGS. WE EVENTUALLY GET CLEARING FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING; WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED AREAWIDE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
355 AM UPDATE...
NW FLOW WILL SLOWLY ADVECT COOLER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION
TODAY. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS PRESENT THIS MORNING
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ERODING TODAY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE IN PLACES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CANADA EDGES FURTHER TO THE
EAST, WE'LL EVENTUALLY GET SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA, DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT (THU NIGHT/FRI AM).
DESPITE THE COOLER AIR ALOFT, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, BUT BY FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE
UPPER-30S FOR MOST AREAS, AND LOWER-40S FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY
AND ALONG THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR/MOHAWK VALLEY.
1 AM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES AS LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
930 PM UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES. THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE AREA NOW.
SPRINKLES ARE ACROSS CNY NOW WITH A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE SNOW THURSDAY MORNING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. DESPITE 90 PLUS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SURFACE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR ALL THAT DENSE
TONIGHT.
210 PM UPDATE...
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAVE HAD DEEPER CONVECTION BUT SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN
NO LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD
OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS IN NEPA AND THE
CATSKILLS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PUT INTO
THE FORECAST GRIDS. VERY LITTLE SOLAR RADIATION IS REACHING THE
GROUND AND WAA IS A LITTLE TO WEAK TO GET SOME BETTER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.
TONIGHT WEAK CAA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CAUSES 850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND -8C AND WITH LAKE
ONTARIO'S AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND 6C, THERE IS JUST
ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY TO GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
IN AS WELL, A DESCENDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE
DEPTH OF MOISTURE SO DRIZZLE WAS ADDED INTO THE GRIDS ALONG WITH
RAIN SHOWERS SINCE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SKIES
TRYING TO CLEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN
INTO THE MID TO LOW 20S. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPEED AT
WHICH THE CLOUD COVER CAN CLEAR AND LEANING TOWARDS MORE SKY
COVER SINCE IT IS WINTER IN UPSTATE NY AND THERE WILL STILL BE
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO, OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE KEPT ON
THE WARMER SIDE. IF THE SKY CAN ACTUALLY CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR,
SOME OF THE LOWER PERCENTILES OF THE NBM HAVE WIDESPREAD TEENS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
320 AM UPDATE...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PRESENT IN THE REGION. WHILE
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S. MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATE SATURDAY. SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL TAP INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, SO
SNOW IS FAVORED. THOSE ALONG AND WEST OF I-81 COULD WAKE UP TO A
COATING OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING.
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES MORE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE WILL BE. THE GFS REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW, BUT
GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF GETS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY
IN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND WYOMING VALLEY REGION. SINCE
NATIONAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE (NBM) WAS USED FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF RAIN IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE. HOWEVER, IF
CONDITIONS CAN STAY COLDER, THEN A TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED. SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS REMAIN AROUND 10:1 BUT QPF TOTALS
ARE ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCHES OR LESS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS OF
NOW, MOST OF THE REGION WOULD OBSERVE ENOUGH TO COVER THE GROUND
WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING A COUPLE OF INCHES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE WARMER AREAS BEING THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
320 PM UPDATE
THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY OUT TO
SEA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOT FAR BEHIND IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
NBM GUIDANCE WAS TOO QUICK BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS, WHICH HAVE
SLOWED DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM. MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED TO BACK OFF ON POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME
GUIDANCE IS NOW FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THURSDAY.
HIGHS THIS PERIOD START IN THE 30S BUT TREND WARMER MIDWEEK AS
COLDER AIR RETREATS NORTHWARD WITH THE HELP OF THE TROUGH MOVING IN.
THEN UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS ARE A LITTLE MORE
VARIABLE. THE WEEKEND FINISHES OUT IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEARER SKIES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE TEENS. FROM THERE, LOWS
THEN TREND WARMER.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP STRATUS CLOUDS LOCKED IN
OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BASES ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 015-040 FEET
AND SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STEADY. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS, OR AT LEAST MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, ESPECIALLY AT RME AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. MVFR FUEL
ALTERNATE CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT SYR AND ITH FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS; THEN FUEL ALTERNATE MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 08-09Z EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AT BGM, ITH AND ELM. AVP LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY LOW
END VFR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE MVFR CIGS LIFT AND SCATTERED OUT FROM NE TO SW LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH VFR EXPECTED AREAWIDE AFTER ABOUT 14Z
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN SKC CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...VFR EXPECTED.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED
RAIN-SNOW WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. SLOW IMPROVEMENTS ON
MONDAY.
TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM/MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MJM/MPH
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