496
FXUS61 KBGM 140509
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
109 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, QPF AND THUNDER CHANCES INTO THIS
EVENING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASED WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2) CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. AS
A RESULT, CLOUDS SHOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE AS WELL
FROM THE LOW 60'S TO 70'S. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
A WARM FRONT IS STILL MODELED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO DEVELOP A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS. INFLUENCE FROM A LLJ MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY OR LEAD TO SLIGHTLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ANY PORTION OF THE REGION THAT GETS
INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND HAS SOME CLEARING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE HIGHS NEAR 70 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE LOCATIONS NOT GETTING
INTO THE WARM SECTOR SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. UNCERTAINITY IS FAIRLY HIGH GIVEN
A TIGHT GRADIENT OF CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SHOULD THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY INSTABILITY ADVECTION THAT COULD RESULT IN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NEPA EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH,
NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP SHARPLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE 30'S.
CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD PREVENT FROST FORMATION. LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE COULD ALLOW FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO END AS A
FEW SNOW FLURRIES SATURDAY MORNING IN CNY. WINDS SHOULD CRANK UP
AS WELL WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH OF
OUR REGION WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH POTENTIALLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HIGH PRESSURE THEN IS MODELED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO A
LOCATION FAVORABLE TO GIVE OUR REGION A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 60'S AGAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
UNCERTAINITY IS PRESENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD FAVOR FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST WITH UPPER 20'S AND LOW 30'S OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MODELED AT 5-10 MPH WHICH WOULD
STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT FROST FORMATION.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WIND SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
STARTING AROUND 06Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BRING MVFR TO FUEL ALT
CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, THERE SHOULD BE NO TO LITTLE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AT ELM, AND IF THERE WERE, IT SHOULD BE NON-RESTRICTIVE.
GOING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
IN THE MVFR RANGE AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT. A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER, AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FOR ALL TERMINALS. AVP WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY TERMINAL TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, BUT WILL BRUSH CLOSE TO
MVFR CIGS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
VALLEY FOG AT ELM.
FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME EARLY SEASON SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...KL
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