226
FXUS61 KBGM 050553
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
153 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES, POPS AND QPF WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE
FORECAST GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1)A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MID LEVEL LOW MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER,
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW MOVING, TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS.
2) LOW AMPLITUDE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH CHANCES
FOR A FEW POP UP SHOWERS OR T'STORMS ALONG WITH GENERALLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
3) THE NEXT TROUGH AND FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EXPECT A MIX OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING TODAY. THEN, AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AND DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES SOME POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT IS A VERY SLOW MOVING SETUP, WITH 1000-700MB
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS, AND CONVERGING ALONG A BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW
MLCAPE BETWEEN 500-1200 J/KG ACROSS NE PA, WITH LESS THAN 500 J/KG
ACROSS CENTRAL NY HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS TODAY
WILL BE VERY SLOW, REALLY JUST DRIFTING AROUND AT LESS THAN 10 MPH;
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AND/OR BECOME ANCHORED TO
TERRAIN WITH THESE SLOW MOTIONS AND MBE VECTORS LESS THAN 15 KTS.
WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS REACH 10-12K FT ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS AND
NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.8 TO 2 INCHES, THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY EFFICIENT, WARM
RAIN DOWNPOURS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS
FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTH INTO NE PA WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH, IT WILL BE LESS HUMID
AND WARM WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S AREAWIDE.
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY WELL PRIMED FOR MORE POTENTIAL HEAVY TO
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS EVEN OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE THE RAIN
AND CONVECTION INTO A ROTATING CLUSTER OVER PARTS OF OUR
CWA...EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT SEEMS TO BE TARGETING
AREAS NEAR AND SE OF BINGHAMTON...ESPECIALLY NE PA AND SULLIVAN
COUNTY NY AREA. SOME STRIPES OF VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH THE HREF STARTING TO SHOW UP TO 25% PROBABILITY
FOR 2"+ OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS.
THE PERIODS OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER ON MONDAY, AS A COOL
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. THIS SHOULD MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT SATURATED,
WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS AND STILL VERY HIGH PWATS AROUND 2"
EXPECTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE EVEN HIGHER ON MONDAY, WITH
HREF 2"+ PROBABILITIES INCREASING UPWARDS OF 50-60% ACROSS NE PA AND
SULLIVAN COUNTY IN THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD. A FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXACTLY WHERE SOME OF THE
HEAVIEST, SLOW MOVING RAIN AND STORMS WILL ULTIMATELY SET UP. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR
NE PA AND SOUTHERN CATSKILL LOCATIONS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S, AND AN EAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEVER REALLY LEAVES THE AREA ENTIRELY HEADING
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT THE STEADIEST RAIN AND STORMS
WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP
AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T'STORMS IN THE FORECAST,
ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AROUND, IT STAYS ON THE COOLER SIDE AS HIGHS ONLY REACH INTO
THE 70S ONCE AGAIN. BY WEDNESDAY, THE LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST
GUIDANCE SHOWS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM A STRAY POP UP
SHOWER OR TWO. SKIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A FLAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. LATE IN THE DAY,
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES REGION, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TIMING, THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL HAS THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH ON FRIDAY, LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE REGION. IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND HUMID, AT LEAST
UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT, A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH THE NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS AND VERY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AT ELM AND BGM WHERE NO RAIN
FELL TODAY. HOWEVER, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 12Z
SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AVP
TOMORROW, WHICH THEN MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS. AFTER
THIS EVENING, WINDS BECOME CALM AND STAY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR; SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...BTL/ES
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