957
FXUS61 KBGM 010536
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
136 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
STEADY RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA BUT THERE CAN BE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SOME SPRINKLES LINGERING THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS EVENING. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL KICK OFF A
WARM AND DRY STRETCH THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
945 PM UPDATE...
JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
AS IT REMAINS ON LARGELY ON TRACK. THE LATEST HRRR HAS TRENDED
DRIER LIKE MOST OF THE OTHER CAMS WITH REGARDS TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, SO KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. DID TAKE NOTE OF THE CANADIAN BEING SLOWER WITH ENDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS CNY AND THE FINGER
LAKES REGION IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OFF THE GREAT LAKES,
SO DID ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER EARLY
TOMORROW EVENING IN THOSE REGIONS.
645 PM UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE HRRR STILL
PRIMARILY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING ANY ACTIVITY, BUT THE
EXPERIMENTAL RRFS DOES HINT AT IT AS WELL, SO WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THIS. THE ONE NOTABLE CHANGE WAS LOWERING TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AS OBS WERE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY
PROJECTED, ESPECIALLY OVER CNY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE PA,
SO LEANED ON THE NBM05TH PERCENTILE TO GET TEMPERATURES DOWN.
215 PM UPDATE...
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN TO THE REGION LAST NIGHT
AND THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT, THOUGH THERE THIS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONDITIONS DRYING OUT BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE SHOWERS OVER CNY ALL
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SOLUTION AS IT IS AN OUTLIER
BUT NOT OUT OF QUESTION. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A BLANKET OF
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND LIMIT COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S, WHICH FOR SOME LOCATIONS, IS NOT MUCH OF
A CHANGE FROM THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH AND KICK OFF
ENHANCE LAKE SHOWERS SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES
AND SOUTHERN TIER REGIONS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED BETTER
THAN UPDATED NBM GUIDANCE FOR POPS, SO IT WAS BLENDED WITH THE
HREF AND OTHER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO FOR THIS UPDATE. SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM THE SOUTH, BUT FOR MOST, IT MAY
BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE PRIOR TO SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL TOMORROW BUT WILL BE TRENDING IN
THE RIGHT DIRECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
WITH MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS LIKELY TO REACH THE 60S. OVERNIGHT,
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT AS ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
COME TO AN END. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
210 PM UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA, HELPING TO
ERADICATE THE OVERHEAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FINALLY, WE WILL GO
INTO A WARMING TREND FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THE COOLER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL HANG AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR VERY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MONDAY; IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. LUCKILY, THANKS TO THE SURFACE HIGH,
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. THIS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY DEPARTS, ALLOWING FOR SURFACE PRESSURE TO BUILD
AND RIDGING OVERHEAD, AND WE TRULY SEE THE WARMING TREND BLOOM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S, AND EVEN STRONGER FOR WEDNESDAY; MID TO UPPER 80S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NONE TO VERY LOW DURING THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERLY MONDAY TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR CLOUD
COVER, EXPECT FOR MONDAY NIGHT, WHERE WE MAY SEE SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ROLL IN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
210 PM UPDATE...
HEADING OUT TO THE END OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. A LARGE BOUNDARY
SPANNING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN TO TEXAS FORMS
THURSDAY MORNING, AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA GOING INTO
FRIDAY, WITH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. LITTLE FAR OUT IN TIME TO BE PRECISE WITH TIMING AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THIS FEATURE
BEING THE NEXT TIME FOR RAIN AFTER MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, DRIZZLE AND PERIODS OF MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION. BGM AND AVP ARE LOOKING TO HANG ONTO SOME
MVFR CIGS THE LONGEST...INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS. AT
THIS TIME THE FORECAST IS FOR ALL TAF SITES TO SEE PREVAILING
LOWER END VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 035-050
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND, INVOF OUR NY TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY. THESE SHOWERS
COULD STILL CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS, WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND LOWERING CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO ADD AT ANY ONE LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SMOKE OR HAZE ALOFT
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
THURSDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL/DK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MPK/MJM
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