426
FXUS61 KBGM 041924
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
324 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ADJUSTED FOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT
AND LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MOST SHOULD STAY DRY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
2) COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD
FROST POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS BEFORE WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NY AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ARE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IMPACTING
THE AREA TODAY. THESE FEATURES ARE GENERATING SOME RADAR RETURNS
OVER THE AREA, BUT WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. WITH VARYING CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES ACROSS ONTARIO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CNY STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT, MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST.
COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON AND S
ONEIDA COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST ENDS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL GET DRAGGED
INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS GO CALM.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD A LITTLE
LATER, WHICH WOULD KEEP WINDS ACTIVE A LITTLE LONGER AND LIMIT
FROST FORMATION. IF THE HIGH CAN MOVE EASTWARD A LITTLE QUICKER,
WE WILL HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD FROST AND MAY EVEN HAVE SOME
SHELTERED VALLEYS HIT FREEZING. COOL TEMPS STICK AROUND DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH 50S FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE COLD AGAIN, BUT THE SPEED OF THE RIDGE
AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD WILL DETERMINE IF WE ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S OR MID 30S TO LOW 40S. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE SPED UP THE RIDGE AND THUS THE WAA. WE WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS. WARM AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
60S FOR HIGHS AND 40S FOR LOWS EXPECTED. A PASSING WEAK WAVE
MAY KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY, BUT MOST SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOME BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A FEW ELEVATED
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH, MAINLY AT ELM, BGM, AND AVP. TONIGHT,
A FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH INCREASING W TO NW WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME FOG MAY FORM BRIEFLY AT ELM BUT GIVEN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT IS SPEEDING UP, NO FOG WAS INCLUDED IN THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH LOWERING CONFIDENCE.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS SHOW A MVFR CLOUD DECK MOVING
THROUGH WITH THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT SO A TEMPO WAS INCLUDED IN
SYR AND RME, WITH PREDOMINANT MVFR AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS. AVP
WILL HAVE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO BRIEF
IFR IS POSSIBLE.
TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT, ANY REMAINING CLOUDS QUICKLY SCATTER
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z WITH VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THERE AFTER.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, LOW CHANCE
FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AT SYR, RME OR ITH.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR, SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING FOG AT ELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...AJG/SJW
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