314
FXUS61 KBGM 241913
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
213 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH AND MISSES OUR AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I90 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THURSDAY.
2) WIDELY VARYING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH WARM
CONDITIONS SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY AND THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FAST HITTING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WITH
LOWS OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS BEFORE
CLIMBING TO THE MID 20S BY DAYBREAK. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW AND
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
CENTRAL NY. WITH THE WIDEPSREAD AMOUNTS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE FURTHER EXPANDED. NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY WILL REMAIN IN AN ADVISORY DUE TO A QUICK BURST OF
2-4 INCHES WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST, WITH SOME LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM AT THE SURFACE, TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL
ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS
SOUTHWARD AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS SNOW OR SNOW
PELLETS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOP OR AT
LEAST SOME CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SYNOPTIC WINDS LUCKILY LOOK TO BE
LIGHT, BUT THEY COULD BE GUSTY WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND THIS WILL ALLOW WET BULBING TO QUICKLY COOL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, WITH THE
WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LATE FEB SUN ANGLE, ACCUMULATIONS
FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND MINIMAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
IS EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTH INTO THE TUG HILL REGION AS WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL IN ALL, 4 TO 8 INCHES
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE FROM 1AM WED TO 7AM
THURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL KEEP ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH JUST A SMALL
CHANCE FOR A FLURRY INTO THE POCONOS.
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND RISING HEIGHTS ON
SATURDAY WITH SW RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S AND VALLEYS PUSHING 50 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE WE CAN SEE SIGNIFICANT
SHIFTS FROM DAY TO DAY AND A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON NW FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR CNY WITH SOME LOW 30S IN NEPA. SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH N ONEIDA POSSIBLY FALLING BELOW 0.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND THE FLOW
EVENTUALLY TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. AS THE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS,
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETREAT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS. VFR WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS A
CLIPPER MOVING IN TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS STARTING BETWEEN 05-08Z. SOME BORDERLINE SSWERLY LLWS
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AT MOST SITES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR; THERE CAN
BE SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND SYR/RME.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND/OR RAIN-SNOW MIX. CONFIDENCE LOW AT
THIS TIME.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ009.
DISCUSSION...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...DK/ES
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