599
FXUS61 KBGM 042330
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
730 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES BY ABOUT 15 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AS
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WHERE THE
RAIN AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP. ALSO REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
2) A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
3) ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE US BUT THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL US IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLIMB AS HIGH INTO CANADA
AS LAST WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND THRU THE WEEK
AS WARM AIR MOVES OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE NORTHEAST US.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU FRIDAY. CONTINUED
NW FLOW ADVECTING IN COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TODAY, EVEN WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST, WITH THE NORMALLY COOLER
VALLEY LOCATIONS HITTING THE UPPER 40S. VERY DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP
FOG AT BAY, BUT SOME PATCHY INSTANCES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
OUR NORMALLY FOGGIER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE JUST TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING
FOR SW FLOW TO RETURN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE RIDGE THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE PAST WEEK
WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN, ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WE SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE
COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A
MORNING PASSAGE WHILE OTHERS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. AN AFTERNOON PASSAGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (700-1100 J/KG) TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
AN AREA OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30-40KTS FORECAST TO MOVE IN
ALONG THE FRONT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C AND THE MODEST
CAPE AND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS PLACED OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SATURDAY, AND THE CURRENT FORECASTED
PARAMETERS MATCH THIS RISK. SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE HAMPERED BY
AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE OR CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE MORNING
DO NOT SCATTER OUT AND LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, LIMITING
CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE AREA.
PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE CURRENTLY MODELED TO BE IN THE
1.5-1.75IN RANGE, SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
DURING THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE STORM CHANCES SHOULD END IN THE EVENING, BUT ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT, A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ALONG AND EAST OF I-81, ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
PROVIDING UPSLOPE INTO THE CATSKILLS. RAIN CHANCES END SUNDAY
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ON SATURDAY, WITH LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, AND MID 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA. WE SHOULD BE 5-10
DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND A CANADIAN
AIRMASS OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER OMEGA BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS THE BLOCK
FROM THIS PAST WEEK. THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BUILD AS FAR NORTH INTO CANADA, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WARM AIR FROM THE CENTRAL AND SW US TO CLIMB OVER THE RIDGE AXIS
AND SPILL INTO THE REGION. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL WARM TO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT, DEPENDING
ON THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE, WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS
RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM RAIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...BTL/ES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page