534
FXUS61 KBGM 032324
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
624 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST PA
AND A FEW CENTRAL NY COUNTIES, WAS EARLIER EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AS WELL AS SCHUYLER-
TOMPKINS-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-MADISON COUNTIES. SEVERAL OF THOSE
ARE DROPPING AT 2 PM BUT OTHERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION,
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS YET KEEPING LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW GOING INTO THIS EVENING FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 81.
2) WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR FREEZING RAIN ON THE FRONT END OF IT EAST OF INTERSTATE 81
BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL OTHERWISE RISE
THROUGH FRIDAY.
3) SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED, WITH AN
INCREASING RISK OF POSSIBLE FLOODING, PERHAPS INCLUDING ISOLATED
ICE JAMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BRING WAVES OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION,
WITH SENSITIVE TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW, BUT THERMAL PROFILES THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE SUPPORTED A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET,
FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN. MANY VALLEYS ARE GETTING ABOVE FREEZING
NOW WHICH WILL CEASE THE THREAT, BUT HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PRONE TO ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 EVEN INTO THIS EVENING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS, ESPECIALLY SULLIVAN
COUNTY, WILL PUSH INTO THE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH RANGE;
TRACE TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION
IN WHICHEVER FORM IT TAKES, WILL END WEST TO EAST DURING 10 PM
TO 2 AM OVERNIGHT, BUT AREAS OF FOG ARE ANTICIPATED IN ITS WAKE
WITH ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AS WELL AS MILDER AIR RUNNING OVER THE
TOP OF COLD GROUND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN
INBOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL FIRST FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S IN THE EVENING, THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. IF SHOWERS RUN
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FAST ENOUGH, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT
COULD START AS SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN FOR SOME AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81 AND INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. HOWEVER, MODEL TRENDS
ARE LESS PROGRESSIVE FOR GETTING THE SHIELD OF SHOWERS IN ON
TIME FOR THAT; STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR. THE WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, WITH
WAVES RUNNING ALONG IT CAUSING SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
OF 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY, PRESSING TO MID
40S TO NEAR 60 FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MAKES MORE HEADWAY
THROUGH THE REGION. THESE BATCHES OF RAIN WILL BE JOINED BY
SNOWMELT AS THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
COURTESY OF MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS MUCH WARMER
WEATHER MELTING OFF REMAINING SNOWPACK. WE ARE ANTICIPATING
HIGHS OF MID 50S TO MID 60S SATURDAY, EDGING BACK JUST SLIGHTLY
TO MAINLY 50S SUNDAY AS ANOTHER BUMP IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OCCURS
WITH A WAVE PASSAGE. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL NEED CLOSE
MONITORING INCLUDING FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAMS. RIVER ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS SHOW POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL POINTS ENTERING ACTION STAGE
IF NOT EVEN POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING AT A COUPLE POINTS. RECENT
THINNING OF ICE HAS OCCURRED, BUT A RISK OF ICE JAMS IS STILL
PRESENT. WHATEVER POTENTIAL THERE IS, WILL REVEAL ITSELF FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECAUSE RIVER RISES WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO BREAK UP AND MOVE THE ICE. IF THE ICE IS THICK ENOUGH,
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED JAMS AND ASSOCIATED ERRATIC WATER
LEVELS AT BRIDGES AND PINCH POINTS. BUT IF NOT, THE SILVER
LINING WILL BE THE FLUSHING THROUGH OF MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
ICE IN THE RIVERS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE RESTRICTIVE
THROUGH THE EVENING, SETTLING INTO IFR-LIFR AND ALTERNATES
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
TURNED OVER TO RAIN, BUT FREEZING RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT
BGM UNTIL 2 OR 3Z AND RME WILL CONTINUE TO SEE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION AS WELL. DRIER AIR PUSHES IN AFTER 3 OR 4Z
TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING, BUT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES REMAIN POOR UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS
OF THE RESTRICTIVE CATEGORIES IS LOW...BUT THE GENERAL TREND OF
IFR OR WORSE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TONIGHT IS MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND FOG WITH FLUCTUATING RESTRICTIONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ040-
048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ037-
046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ057-
062.
DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...JAB/MPK
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