891
FXUS61 KBGM 202328
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
628 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST; ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN CHRISTMAS DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RISING RIVERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. ICE MOVEMENT
STILL POSSIBLE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL
ICE JAMS.
- 2) A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW,
KICKING OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS CNY WITH 1-3 INCHES
POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
- 3) SEVERAL SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RISING RIVERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. ICE MOVEMENT
STILL POSSIBLE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL
ICE JAMS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL AND MELTING SNOW FROM YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE MAIN STEM NORTH BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA AND
UPPER DELAWARE RIVERS TO RISE INTO TOMORROW. FLOW INCREASES
DOWNSTREAM ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO BREAK UP AND MOVE THE
ESTABLISHED ICE COVER THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN SOME STRETCHES OF
THESE RIVERS. MONITORING OF SENSITIVE AND RESTRICTIVE AREAS
ALONG THE RIVERS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE JAM FORMATION AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REPORT
ACTIVE FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW, KICKING
OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS CNY WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD EARLY
MORNING TOMORROW, PUSHING A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL
BE NO ACCESS TO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OR ATLANTIC, SO THE
FRONT ITSELF SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH PRECIPITATION. BEHIND THE
FRONT, 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO BELOW -10 C DURING THE DAY, AND
A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL US, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS IN
THE LOW AND MID ATMOSPHERE TO LINE UP NICELY OUT OF THE NW, AND
WITH UPSTREAM CONNECTION FROM LAKE HURON AND THE GEORGIAN BAY,
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR NORTHERN CENTRAL NY.
CURRENTLY, 1-3 INCHES ARE FORECAST TO FALL OVER THIS AREA INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BUILD TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA AND CUT OFF THE LAKE
EFFECT BY MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL
PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
WITH A STRONG RIDGE SITTING IN PLACE IN THE CENTRAL US, A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY,
WITH SNOW IN THE MORNING CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY THE
AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST.
CONFIDENCE FOR A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
CHRISTMAS EVE AND INTO CHRISTMAS DAY IS INCREASING;
PRECIPITATION COULD START AS SNOW AND CHANGE TO RAIN AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA. WITH THIS BEING THE BUSIEST TIME OF YEAR FOR TRAVEL, WE
WILL BE MONITORING HOW THIS DEVELOPS VERY CLOSELY FOR ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN SINCE THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY.
CHRISTMAS DAY IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO BE PRETTY WARM OVER THE
AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S. THIS WARM AIR IS CURRENTLY
MODELED TO STAY AROUND WHEN THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON
FRIDAY, BRINGING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO RME ON SUNDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT, AND
THEN WESTERLY BY MID-TO-LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOPING. SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS AROUND 40 TO
LOCALLY 45 KNOTS IS EXPECTED EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS AND THEN
START TO DISSIPATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER, THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE WITH LAKE EFFECT AT RME. MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THE MORE PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
START DROPPING SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MAY REACH SYR
BEFORE 0Z MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN RAIN AND SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...DK/MPK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page