165
FXUS61 KBGM 140556
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAZE AND SMOKE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO ACTIVE WILDFIRES IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
FLOW WILL BRING THAT SMOKE INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT TODAY WITH SOME HAZE LATER AS SMOKE MOVES IN ALOFT FROM
FIRES IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA, THICKER SMOKE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
2) THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST, WITH SOME
EAST COAST TROUGHING TRYING TO BRING COOLER, BUT MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER, FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A VERY ANOMALOUS AIRMASS IS MOVING THROUGH WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR MODELED CLIMATOLOGY, WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 23 AND 25C. LUCKILY THIS POCKET IS TRANSIENT BUT
WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD AROUND PEAK HEATING. TEMPERATURES WERE
STILL LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM AS SMOKE RELEASED BY MANY
FIRES IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON COULD ADVECT
IN ALOFT LIMITING OUR HEATING A BIT. STILL WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL
SUPPORT HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S.
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A FRONT MOVE THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FALLING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IT
ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL SMOKE FROM YESTERDAYS FIRES WOULD
BE MOVING IN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN HOW
WIDESPREAD THE FIRE ACTIVITY WAS AS WELL AS SEVERAL PYROCUMULUS
RELEASED BY THE FIRES, THE SMOKE PLUME LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE THICK. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT ADJUSTED
DOWN YET BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE IF SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS US IN THE PLUMS PATH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO REACH THE
WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SO
HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PUSH HEAT INDICES BACK TO NEAR
100 (IF SMOKE IS NOT THICK AHEAD OF THE FRONT).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE STRONG RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE REGION UNDER NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE BUT DEW POINTS WILL BE LOW. ONE THING TO WATCH
THURSDAY IS WHAT HAPPENS UPSTREAM IN CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE DRY, BUT WITH NY/PA RIGHT UNDER THE
NE EDGE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO GET
A STORM COMPLEX DEVELOP AND DIVE SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
BETTER CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES
THIS WEEKEND AS THE AXIS OF THE BIG RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE
NORTHEAST. 0-6 KM SHEAR THIS NEXT WEEKEND IS ELEVATED WITH THE
JET STREAM OVERHEAD AND NW FLOW, WITH VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 30
AND 50 KNOTS. MOST MODELS HAVE AT LEAST SOME CAPE DEVELOPING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
6C/KM AND 7C/KM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD,
HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME PERIOD MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO HAZE
AS SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE STARTS FILTERING INTO THE REGION. WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO
25KTS POSSIBLE AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE FROM CANADA. WILDFIRE SMOKE DENSITY IS STILL UNCERTAIN
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ038>040.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR PAZ043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...ES/MPK
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