327
FXUS61 KBGM 110033
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
833 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AGAIN HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY, ALONG WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES. PERIODS OF RAIN AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FROM A POST TROPICAL CYCLONE. DRY AND
WARM WEATHER RETURNS IN ITS WAKE FOR MONDAY.
3) THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THIS
THIS AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY BECOMING A BIT THICKER AND SOLID BY THIS
EVENING. OVERALL, CONDITIONS ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH SUNSHINE
FILTERING THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE INCREASING,
THICKENING AND LOWERING CIRRUS CLOUDS. IT WILL BE COOL,
ESPECIALLY EAST AND NORTH OF BINGHAMTON, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH A POST
TROPICAL CYCLONE PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION TOMORROW THAT
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME MINOR UNCERTAINTY ON
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE INCOMING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. CAMS SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN MID TO LATE MORNING, AND SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION BY MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING. THESE RAIN SHOWERS ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME THUNDER, MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A BIT HIGHER EACH UPDATE, TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER NORTHEAST
PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER REGION OF NY. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE RIDGETOPS BETWEEN 8-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH FOR THE HILLTOPS IN NE PA.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MONDAY IS LOOKING DRY, WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT. INITIALLY THIS WILL PUT OUR CWA IN THE WARM
SECTOR, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IF THE TIMING WORKS OUT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES
RANGING 200-500 J/KG, ALONG WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
PWATS ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.4 IN, SO ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
THAT DO FORM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
IF WE DO GET SOME BREAKS OF SUN, IT COULD BE QUITE WARM ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-60S TO LOW 70S.
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS IT MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY, INTO SATURDAY AS A POTENTIALLY DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND, STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
QUIET VFR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS. RAIN FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO AVP AROUND SUNRISE, WITH
CONDITIONS FALLING TO FUEL ALT 1-2 HOURS LATER, THEN IFR
RESTRICTION THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BGM/ELM/ITH WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN BY MID-MORNING, WITH
MVFR/FUEL ALT CONDITIONS QUICKLY FOLLOWING. IFR RESTRICTIONS MAY
DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN IFR OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SYR AND RME SHOULD START TO SEE RAIN SHOWERS LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING.
SUNDAY NIGHT, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT, TAPERING
OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MOSTLY IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO BE CLOSER TO MVFR CIGS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
AND EVEN A SMALL CHANCE OF DAYTIME THUNDER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD
RESULT IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VALLEY FOG
AT ELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES/MJM
AVIATION...JTC/SJW
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