975
FXUS61 KBGM 291141
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NORTHERN CENTRAL NY COUNTIES FOR
THE UPCOMING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT STARTING THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE TRENDING FAVORABLE FOR A LONG-DURATION
LAKE EFFECT EVENT, WITH THE FIRST PORTION DEPICTING A WELL-
ORGANIZED, HEAVY BAND EXPECTED FOR ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA
COUNTIES, WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED, WITH POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF UP TO 3 FEET. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR POSSIBLE, WITH UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WORDING FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ADDED TO HEADLINES, AS THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW FOR NORTHERN CENTRAL NY
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STEUBEN COUNTY FOR SNOW
EXPECTED, AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ERIE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO STEUBEN COUNTY THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA.
3) A PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL NY. INCREASING WINDS WILL
LEAD TO AREAS OF WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, WITH
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND HEAVY LAKE EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DEEPENING LOW PROGRESSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WHERE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN, INCREASING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH A FEW AREAS ALREADY AT 40
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BEGIN TO DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO BELOW FREEZING IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON, WHERE SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON UNTREATED
SURFACES. ADDITIONALLY, AND PERHAPS THE LARGER THREAT, WILL BE
INCREASING WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS GOING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SHOW SOME TOP OF
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS APPROACHING 60 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WERE
RAISED CLOSER TO THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE TO MATCH CLOSER TO THE
POTENTIAL MAX WIND GUSTS IN BUFKIT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING,
WITH WESTERLY FLOW TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. COLD AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE -10 TO -15 C RANGE WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE ONTARIO
TEMPERATURES OF 4 TO 6 DEGREES C. AS NORTHWEST FLOW ESTABLISHES,
A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION DEVELOPS, AND WELL-ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT
BAND OR BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL NY
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION, IMPACTING BAND ORIENTATION AND ORGANIZATION AND
ENHANCING SNOWFALL RATES DOWNSTREAM OF THE LAKES.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW, WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 FEET, IS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN CENTRAL
NY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH NEGATIVE OMEGA MAXIMUMS AND LI CAPE
INTERSECTING IN THE DGZ, WHICH MAY INCREASE SNOWFALL RATES UP TO
3 INCHES PER HOUR.
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW, IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW, WHICH COULD CREATE
BLIZZARD-LIKE, WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ONONDAGA-MADISON-ONEIDA COUNTIES, AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR CAYUGA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO
COUNTIES, REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT AND
CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR OR EVEN VFR MONDAY AFTER FROPA AS LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG MIXES OUT. WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE
DAY WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 35 - 45 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO SNEAK IN TOWARDS KSYR THIS EVENING
AND BY MIDNIGHT CONDITIONS UNDER THE LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL
LIKELY BE VLIFR WITH NEAR WHITE CONDITIONS DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER WITH CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS AND RESTRICTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME BUT AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS. KSYR-KRME MAY HAVE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES, WITH BELOW 1 MILE VISIBILITY.
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MAINLY THE NY TERMINALS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS MAKING
IT SOUTH TO KAVP.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. LIMITED TO MAINLY
KSYR-KRME BY FRIDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ040-044-
047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ017-044>046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ022.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ062.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...MPK
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