703
FXUS61 KBGM 101719
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1219 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS MIXED PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
2) LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
UNCERTAINITY ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK FRONT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE STILL LOOK TO BE
PRESENT FOR A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW, STEADIEST NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE NY THRUWAY. SOUNDING PROFILES BECOME MORE TRICKY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ENTER THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH LIFT SHOULD GENERATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS CNY THAT
SLIDE SOUTH INTO NEPA THIS EVENING. A WARM NOSE AROUND 850 MB
LOOKS TO OUTPACE THE SURFACE WARMING TODAY KEEPING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY MIX AND A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. ANY
GLAZE OF ICE LOOKS TO BE LIGHT, SO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
IN NY AND NEPA HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE ADVISORY. THESE AREAS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME OF THE COLD AIR TEMPORARILY DAM
UP AHEAD OF THE WARM PUSH AS WELL. SOUNDINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
THIS EVENING PASSABLY TRANSITIONING ANY PRECIPITATION OVER TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER SHOULD GENERATE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WHEN SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IS THROWN IN AS WELL. THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE DOWNSTREAM OFF LAKE ONTARIO BUT MAY
SHIFT FOR A TIME INTO PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER IF FINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. OVERALL, A FEW
INCHES FOR QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS WITH AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES
TOTAL IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SOME OF THE AMOUNTS MAY CREEP INTO
CAYUGA AND CORTLAND COUNTIES BUT A SHARPER CUTOFF OF THE HIGHER
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENT OUTCOMES MAY OCCUR WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FAIR CLUSTER
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND SOME OPERATIONAL MODELS TAKE THE LOW
INTO THE GREAT LAKES INTRODUCING MIXING ISSUES WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER CLUSTER TAKE A FLATTER AND WEAKER WAVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT HERE. FOR NOW, STAYED WITH
OUR NBM/WPC GUIDANCE AND FEATURE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. THIS
WOULD BRING SOME SNOW WITH IT BUT THE SYSTEM WOULD BE
PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK
MORE MARGINAL AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STEADY SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY PUSHED EAST, BUT SOME PATCHY
PRECIPITATION HANGS AROUND A FEW TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION RE-
DEVELOPS A BIT STEADIER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE,
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BGM AND AVP CURRENTLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ELM/ITH/SYR/RME WILL SEE MOSTLY SNOW OR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
LOSS OF CLOUD ICE AROUND 2-3Z, CREATING FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES
AT RME/SYR/ITH/BGM UNTIL AROUND 8Z. CEILINGS LOOK TO BE IN THE
IFR RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD. NW FLOW SHOULD BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE LOWER AND MID ATMOSPHERE AFTER 8Z, KICKING OFF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR SYR AND RME.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME ADDITIONAL IFR/MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHOWERS IN CNY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ039-
040.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ044>046-056-057-062.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...JTC/KL
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