297
FXUS61 KBGM 072336
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
736 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SYRACUSE
METRO, MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS AS THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS OVERCAST OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET HERE. ALSO LOWERED
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS SAME AREA
AS THE CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEATING THIS
EVENING, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THIS
AREA AND IT SHOULD REMAIN STEADY THROUGH SUNSET HERE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES WILL LINGERING INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY, SYRACUSE AREA
AND CATSKILLS, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE WEAK, LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
3. AFTER TODAY, THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY THOUGH SHOWERS
RETURN MIDWEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE CLOUD COVER
HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THESE AREAS, MODELS ARE SHOWING LIMITED
INSTABILITY, SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST PA, THERE HAVE BEEN MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY IN AREAS WITH HIGH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS THEN LED TO
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
MORE STABLE IS DROPPING IN, SO ADDITIONAL POP UP SHOWERS IN THESE
AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING. THAT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
VALLEYS, THOUGH COULD CREEP UP SOME HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS AS
WELL. THESE CONDITIONS TYPICALLY LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, SO TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED DOWN SLIGHTLY BELOW NBM
GUIDANCE. TONIGHT'S LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP KICK
OFF A WARMING TREND THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MUCH OF THE
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH
THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW 90S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE THIS
WEEK. DEWPOINTS EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S BUT
LATE IN THE WEEK, INCREASE TO MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL A BIT MORE MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE. LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
60S AFTER TOMORROW NIGHT. AS WAS THE CASE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, NBM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT WARM COMPARED TO THE
MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, SO TEMPERATURES
WERE BUMPED DOWN SLIGHTLY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY EARLY IN THE
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON, SO
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT COULD BE LIMITED DUE TO MORNING
SHOWERS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDES A RIDGE THAT BUILDS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY, KICKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO BE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THIS FRONT OUT OF THE REGION
BY SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO START THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CLOUDS LINGERING OVER RME/SYR/ITH/BGM SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AROUND 02-05Z THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON THIS
IMPROVEMENT AND TIMING.
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FOR ELM AND ITH BETWEEN ABOUT
08Z AND 12Z, AND A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED. ALTHOUGH IT'S
POSSIBLE AT BGM, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THE THE 00Z PACKAGE, BUT DID SHOW SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG/MIST
AT BGM AROUND DAYBREAK.
ANY EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE AFTER 12-13Z MONDAY, RIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, UNDER 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD THEN TURN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, BETWEEN
4-8 KTS MOST OF THE TIME.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MJM/MWG
AVIATION...KL/MJM
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