297
FXUS61 KBGM 230747
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
247 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
STEUBEN COUNTY, NY FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
THE REST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR TODAY REMAIN
UNCHANGED. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-81; RAISED SLIGHTLY FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WHICH
WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE AREA THIS MORNING,
CHANGING TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BY LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
2) QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
3) AN ADDITIONAL QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM COULD BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND/OR A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 2AM EST, SNOW FROM OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION HAS STARTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD. THE
SNOW INITIALLY HAD A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO
LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, BUT IT HAS NOW OVERCOME THIS
INITIAL DRY AIR IN PLACE. THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EARLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE PICKING UP IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AFTER 5-7AM.
BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, A WARM NOSE WILL MOVE
IN AND ALLOW FOR SNOW TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY, AND THEN
EVENTUALLY MOST OF THE REST OF CENTRAL NY. ONCE PRECIPITATION CHANGES
TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX, WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS), OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED SINCE THIS LIGHT ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE ON TOP OF FRESH SNOW. THE PREDOMINANT FORM OF
PRECIPITATION MAY EVEN BE PLAIN RAIN IN THE VALLEYS BY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AS THE PRECIPITATION GETS LIGHTER AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SLOWS DOWN.
OVERALL, EXPECTING A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A GLAZE OF ICE IN SOME SPOTS, WITH
SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/UPSLOPE AREAS OF CENTRAL NY
POTENTIALLY RECEIVING UP TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY (3 TO 6
INCHES) WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL OR
MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE EVENT. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING YATES AND SENECA COUNTIES IN NY.
A LIMITED LAKE ENHANCED RESPONSE DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO -10C, WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA (S. CAYUGA, ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES). FOR
THIS REASON, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GO UNTIL 7AM
WEDNESDAY, WHILE ALL OTHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 4PM
TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUALLY
DECREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER A COOL START IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH
EXPECTED; THIS COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED BLOWING/DRIFTING
FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW IN THE RURAL, OPEN EXPOSED AREAS.
IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TO OUR SOUTH.
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY OR
EVEN PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE; BUT MORE THAN LIKELY IT REMAINS
DRY. IT WARMS UP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LOOKS TO BE
BLOCKED WITH 3 LARGE RIDGES IN WESTERN ALASKA, THE CENTRAL U.S.,
AND NORTHERN EUROPE. THIS MEANS THAT WE WILL BE STUCK ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A TROUGH OFF OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE LEADING TO PLENTY OF CHANCES OF CLIPPERS TO DRIVE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AS WELL AS ACCESS TO
COLD AIR IN EASTERN CANADA, THE SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR OVERRUNNING
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE CONTINUED COLDER TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
TRENDING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND A HIGH TO THE NORTH SUPPLYING
COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY MEAN A SNOWIER
SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY, OR AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX FOR SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. IF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH ENDS UP EVEN STRONGER, IT
IS EVEN POSSIBLE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE SHUNTED TO
OUR SOUTH, ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS NOT VERY LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH OUR
UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOVING IN FROM THE WNW
TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY AT SYR/RME/ITH WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SNOW. RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE AREA, BUT NONE OF IT IS REACHING THE
GROUND AS IT IS VERY DRY AT THE SURFACE. THIS HOWEVER WILL HELP
TO PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW MOVES IN A
AROUND 10-11Z, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY FALL TO
IFR AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.
BGM AND AVP COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN
MIXED IN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME WARM AIR WORKS ITS
WAY IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINAL FOR
THIS BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH IN ITS CHANCES TO INCLUDE IT
THE THESE TAFS.
IN THE AFTERNOON, WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM
THE WEST, BRINGING MORE DRIZZLE TO THE AREA INSTEAD OF PURE RAIN
OR SNOW. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH THIS DRIZZLE
AND MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE WARM AIR INVERSION. IFR WILL
SLOWLY TURN TO MVFR ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE DRIZZLE
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER WITH FOG AND
DRIZZLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN.
THURSDAY...A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT SOME POINT THIS PERIOD, BUT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
017-018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ022>025-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...BJG/MJM
AVIATION...JTC
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