973
FXUS61 KBGM 140442
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1242 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON, AND MOVING WEST-TO-EAST. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A SECONDARY THREAT
OF HAIL.
2) BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH IT. WITH THE FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM,
IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
40-50 KNOTS (WITH POCKETS OF OVER 50 KNOTS), AND CAPE VALUES OF
500-1000 J/KG, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH SHEAR VALUES WILL HELP
TO HAVE A MORE DISTINCT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS INTO MULTI-
CLUSTER OR LINE SEGMENTS, WHICH COULD ALSO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS THIS TYPE OF STORM ORGANIZATION,
RATHER THAN DISCRETE CELLS. TIMING LOOKS TO START IN THE MID-
AFTERNOON IN THE FINGER LAKES AND WESTERN CENTRAL NY, AND MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER CANADA
WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK'S WEATHER. FOR THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING KEEPING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOW. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG
THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH DEEPENS IN A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE, TRACKING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY, AS THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING
DISTURBANCE WOULD DETERMINE THE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF
POTENTIAL STORMS, AS WELL AS THE POSITIONING OF THE MAIN LOW
CENTER AND HOW LONG THE AREA WOULD BE UNDER THE WARM SECTOR
BEFORE ANY FORCING MECHANISM COMES ALONG. REGARDLESS OF
UNCERTAINTY, ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY, AND
LIKELY STRETCHING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH
HELPS TO PROPAGATE SHORTWAVES INTO THE AREA, BRINGING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON STORMS. TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEK THANKS TO RELATIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DESPITE A CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING, VALLEY FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT KELM DUE TO DRYNESS OF THE AIR, AS WELL AS AN INCREASING
WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE. IN FACT, FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS TO
BE MET AT KRME FOR FEW HOURS UP TO DAWN; CONFIDENCE AND
MAGNITUDE ARE GENERALLY TOO LOW FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS. AFTER
SURFACE WINDS GO LIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT, THEY WILL
PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS RANGE.
SUNDAY AFTER 20Z OR SO, A FRONT DROPS INTO NY FROM NW TO SE
BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW, THUNDER
HAS BEEN PUT INTO PROB30 GROUPS AS CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS
TOO LOW FOR TEMPOS BUT THUNDER IMPACTS ARE LIKELY AT SOME POINT
AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z AND ROUGHLY 3Z TOMORROW NIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS/FOG OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON AS MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH; ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...AJG/MDP
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