489
FXUS61 KBGM 260723
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
223 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANSION OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
NEW GUIDANCE REFLECTS AN INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
NORTH-AND-WESTWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
2) ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON MONDAY.
3) COLD WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FAIRLY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL, AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION OF SLEET AND A GLAZE OF ICE IN PORTIONS OF NE PA
AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THIS HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW WILL SET UP, WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE NARROW IN NATURE. THOUGH, CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED FOR WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL EXPANDING NORTH-AND-
WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY WITH NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTING
BETTER AGREEMENT; AT LEAST WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS MEETING OR
EXCEEDING WARNING-LEVEL AMOUNTS. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE THE
TOP OUTLIER, WITH THE MAGNITUDE FAR EXCEEDING THE OUTCOMES OF
OTHER GUIDANCE. ON THE CONTRARY, THE NAM RUNS WARM AT THE 700MB
LEVEL, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM A
MORE PROMINENT WARM NOSE (AND EFFECTIVELY MORE MIXED
PRECIPITATION). AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS
KEY MESSAGE: THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN THE FGEN BAND MAY BE
ABLE TO KEEP THE LAYER BELOW FREEZING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE WARM NOSE. ANOTHER ISSUE WITH THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO ITS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS HOW HIGH THE DGZ IS. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
THAT THE LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ IS MAXIMIZED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF IS SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE SNOW BAND ENDS UP BEING ABOUT 20 TO 30 MILES NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SLEET RATHER THAN JUST NORTH OF THE MIX
LINE. TO ACCOMMODATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MEETING WARNING-LEVEL
SNOWFALL, WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NY. GIVEN THE PROBABILITY THAT A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
OCCURS, WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL MAY NOT BEEN SEEN EVERYWHERE IN A
COUNTY UNDER A WARNING.
FOR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NE PA, WARM AIR WILL
PUSH IN WITH SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN, SO THE
TIME OF PRECIPITATION BEING PREDOMINANTLY SNOWFALL MAY ONLY BE
A FEW HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET, AND POSSIBLY A MIX IN
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. ADDITIONALLY, HOW FAR NORTH THIS MIXED
LAYER WILL GET IS CRITICAL FOR WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS,
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IS
PRIMARILY EAST OF I-81, WHERE THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND WITH THE HELP OF TERRAIN, SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE NEAR AND
ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SUNDAY WILL START OFF PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THIS SETUP, A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR
MAY TAKE A WHILE TO ERODE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. MODELED SOUNDINGS ARE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FREEZING RAIN SETUP FOR THOSE AREAS, RATHER THAN
A SLEET SETUP. AS A RESULT, FOR THE CATSKILLS-POCONOS, AS WELL
AS PARTS OF ONEIDA COUNTY AND OTHER HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA, FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. ANYWHERE BETWEEN A GLAZE
AND AROUND 0.25" OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT A LATER TIME.
WITH WARM AIR QUICKLY TAKING OVER, MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THESE
REGIONS WILL LIKELY BE PLAIN RAIN FOR THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. A STACKED LOW FORMS SOUTH OF THE
HUDSON BAY WHICH IS A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR LONGER-DURATION LAKE
EFFECT EVENTS. 850 MB WINDS ARE MOSTLY WESTERLY, MEAN WINDS IN
ENSEMBLES HINT AT A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION, AND MEAN
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW -10C. IT IS TOO FAR OUT
TO REALLY FIGURE OUT BAND ORGANIZATION OR ORIENTATION BUT THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. FORECAST WINDS AND
WIND GUSTS WERE BUMPED UP FROM THE NBM CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH POSSIBLE AND LOCALLY UP TO
50 MPH ACROSS THE USUAL WINDIER SPOTS/HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. IF
THIS FORECAST HOLDS, WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
PERIOD AS IT GETS CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE TIME
BEING; AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND LIKELY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. AFTER 17Z OR SO, LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST, WHICH WILL START TO BRING RESTRICTIONS; STARTING
OUT AS MVFR, BUT BECOMING IFR-OR-WORSE BY THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. +SN (1/4SM VISBY) WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL. KELM
AND KAVP WILL SEE SOME SNOW INITIALLY, AND COULD SEE IFR VISBYS
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EARLY EVENING, THEN SOME SLEET IS LIKELY
TO MIX IN BY THE EVENING.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE LATE
EVENING AS THE SNOW STARTS TO TAPER OFF, BUT LINGERING MVFR TO
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, OTHERWISE LINGERING MVFR TO FUEL
ALTERNATE CEILINGS.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING MVFR
CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GUSTY WINDS
AS RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS AS LAKE EFFECT BECOMES DOMINANT.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE NY TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ039.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ038-043-044-047.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-023-025-036-037-055.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ022-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ044>046-056-057-062.
DISCUSSION...BJG/KL
AVIATION...BJG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page