388
FXUS61 KBGM 071858
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
258 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS IS LIKELY IN CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK, SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW.
HOWEVER, FORECAST MODEL SOUNDING ARE STILL SHOWING MUCAPE OF A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES, SO COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. FRONT
WILL EXIT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DRIER, BUT MUCH COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S. TOMORROW NIGHT, CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
A FREEZE WARNING AND/OR FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AND WILL
BE ISSUED WITH THE FORECAST UPDATE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY. FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL MAKE FRIDAY MORNING THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS FALL
SEASON, WITH WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN FOR ANY LATE PLANTS THE COLD ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DOESN'T KILL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THAT THIS HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. A COASTAL
LOW/NOR-EASTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINAS COAST AND AT
THIS TIME IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF THIS LOW WILL TRACK FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT OUR REGION. ANY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM
WOULD BE BENEFICIAL FOR OUR REGION, BUT IT IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE
THAT IT IS SHUNTED BY THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE
AND OUR AREA STAYS COMPLETELY DRY.
ALTHOUGH RAINFALL FROM TODAY'S FRONTAL SYSTEM IS WELCOMED TO
EASE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, BY NEXT WEEK, CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS WILL START TO BRING WILDFIRE CONCERNS TO THE
FOREFRONT ONCE AGAIN. PREDICTIVE SERVICES AT THE NATIONAL
INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER IN BOISE, ID HAS NEARLY OUR ENTIRE CWA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SIGNIFICANT WILDLAND FIRE
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN OCTOBER. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR
CLOSELY OVER THE COMING WEEKS, ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY SPELL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VARYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AROUND THE TERMINALS THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDER. SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES BRINGING OCCASIONAL IFR
VISBYS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEN HEADING INTO THIS
EVENING, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER WITH A MIX OF MVFR TO
LIFR RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
WITH AT LEAST IFR VISBY AT TIMES GENERALLY THROUGH 08-09Z.
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOMORROW MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN MID-TO- LATE MORNING.
BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR; LOCAL MORNING VALLEY FOG.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL/MPK
NEAR TERM...KL/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL/MPK
LONG TERM...KL/MPK
AVIATION...DK
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