392
FXUS61 KBGM 101647
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1247 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR DATA. CAM MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PROGRESSION OF THE CURRENT STORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE THIS WEEK WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN PASSING SYSTEMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MCS PUSHED OUT OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING WNY AND WPA. THE SYSTEM HAS SPILT ITS MOTION, WITH
THE NORTHERN PART SPINNING UP A MCV AND MOVING TO THE ENE WHILE
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MCS HAS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS TO THE
SE, WITH NEW STORMS FORMING ALONG THE OUTFLOW ACROSS SE OHIO.
CURRENTLY, THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE MCV TRAVELING EASTWARD TOWARD
CNY. CIN REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND HAS
ALREADY DISSIPATED A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING ONTO STEUBEN
COUNTY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE CIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK AND
MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1200-1700 J/KG RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CNY AND NEPA. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY FROM
YESTERDAY'S FORECAST IS THAT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED,
NOW WITH 30-40KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT
OVER THE AREA AS THE MCV MOVES IN WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. THESE INGREDIENTS LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP, WITH DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL AND
EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NEPA WHERE WE ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES, BUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO THE NORTH OF THIS
AREA. HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS, AND WITH
THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SMALL
STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE. STORMS FROM THE MCV SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 8PM. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME
STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WORK THEIR WAY IN FROM LAKE
ONTARIO.
PRIOR TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES, WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S RISING TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY MILD, ONLY FALLING INTO THE 60S. WITH CALMING
WINDS, BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER, AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S
SHOWERS, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
***MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TIMING AND TRACK
OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVES.***
A RIDGE OUT WEST AND BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WILL FAVOR A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEK. RIDGE RIDERS WILL PASS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND PASS NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN THE NIGHT PRIOR, THOUGH A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CLIP THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA ON
TUESDAY WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS WELL
LATE IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SLIGHTLY AND
LEADS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS TO BRING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD LATE IN THE
WEEK AND TO START THE WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS THAT MAY LINGER INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS QUITE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH EACH SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE,
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON EXACT TRACKS AND TIMING, WHICH IMPACTS THE COVERAGE.
THERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AND NOT ANY
PARTICULAR DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A WASH OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHOWERS AND TSRA ARRIVES AROUND 18/19Z IN THE WEST AND SPREADS
EAST BY 20/21Z. WE REPLACED THE PROB30 GROUPS WITH TEMPOS, AND
ADDED TSRA FOR RME AND SYR AS WELL, EVEN THOUGH THEY'RE THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE.
AFTER 00Z THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED NON-RESTRICTED SHOWERS
AROUND STILL IN THE VICINITY OF MOST TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, AFTER
A BRIEF VFR PERIOD, WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. RESTRICTIONS WITH OVERNIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RETURNING TO VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/JTC
AVIATION...KL
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