228
FXUS61 KBGM 041840
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
240 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
CURRENTLY IS NEAR I-81 AS OF 2:30 PM 9/4. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
STILL SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF THE RAIN
CHANCES IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THEN MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN TYPICAL
BIASES WITH THE HI-RES MODELS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DEPEND
ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WITH 40'S AND 50'S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION.
A TEMPORARY BREAK IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS THE COLD FRONT WASHES
OUT TO OUR EAST. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING CLOSE TO 80 IN SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ENOUGH LIFT LOOKS TO BE PRESENT TO GENERATE
SOME NEEDED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. FRONTAL TIMING MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON SATURDAY
TRICKY WITH POTENTIALLY A 20-30 DEGREE SPREAD FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE REGION. WARMEST VALUES WILL BE IN NE PA AND THE WESTERN
CATSKILLS. SLOW CLEARING AND A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND CLEAR NIGHTS. FAIRLY PLEASANT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60'S AND LOW 70'S. HOWEVER, A FAIRLY
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING APPEARS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT FROM OUR NBM WHICH
CAN BE HIGH BIASED IN THESE CASES. SOME MID TO UPPER 30'S ARE
FORECASTED WHICH WOULD PROMOTE SOME FROST.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING THROUGH CURRENTLY
AND HAVE ALREADY IMPACTED ITH AND ELM. SYR, BGM, AND AVP WILL
SEE THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z WITH BGM
AND SYR MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING. RME WILL SEE THE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH CLOSER TO 19Z. BEHIND THE MAIN LINE,
THERE WILL BE SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUING WITH LOWERING CIGS TO
MVFR AND NEAR IFR FOR THE TERMINALS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR TONIGHT AFTER 5Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA SO
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. ELM IS LIKELY TO SEE LIFR TONIGHT FOR
A WHILE, WITH CHANCES OF FOG AT AVP, ITH, AND RME WITH IFR
LIKELY AT SOME POINT AFTER 8Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXIST AT BGM
AND SYR LIKELY DOES NOT FOG. ONCE FOG CLEARS TOMORROW BY 13Z,
WINDS PICK UP BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY, WITH ASSOCIATED
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS. BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR, BUT A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NY MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page