201
FXUS61 KBGM 162319
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
719 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE, ADDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR POP-UP
STORMS FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTHERN CENTRAL NY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, CONTINUED THE TREND TO INCREASE WIND
GUSTS FOR THE INCOMING SYSTEM THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE.
A FEW POP-UP STORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON.
2) AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY, ALONG WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS SOUTH EAST OF THE REGION. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND PORTION OF NORTH CENTRAL NY WHILE MOST
LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. WESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HELPING TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. TONIGHT REMAINS COOL, WITH LOWS FALLING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE AND AN ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT ARRIVE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE, THROUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SPC HAS
THE REGION UNDER GENERAL THUNDER FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWS FROM THE WEST, BRINGING
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE REGION. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT MAY HELP INCREASE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE
REGION IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NORTHEAST
PA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND WEAK MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST PARAMETER IS SHEAR,
SUGGESTING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH
ANY STRONG CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW WILL RESULTS IN GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOON HOURS, WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND WOULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS
AREAS OF COMPLEX TERRAIN. WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO OUR
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, AND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BUTT UP AGAINST THE RIDGE DEPARTING TO THE EAST,
KEEPING WINDS MOSTLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE ACTIVE LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING
AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, BUT THE TIMING
OF THIS STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH SOME SHOWING RAIN MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE MID MORNING, WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT DEVELOPING
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS LIKE
BGM/SYR/RME HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MID TO LATE MORNING
SHOWERS, BUT IF THE SHOWERS DEVELOP A LITTLE EARLIER, WE COULD
SEE THEM OVER ELM AND ITH AS WELL. RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ALSO LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. VERY BREEZY, SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS AND WIND
SHIFTS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT RESTRICTIONS FROM
SCATTERED SHOWERS; BREEZY WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS EACH
AFTERNOON.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES
AVIATION...KL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page