883
FXUS61 KBGM 230522
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1222 AM EST MON DEC 23 2024
SYNOPSIS
VERY COLD ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW
SCATTERED CLOUDS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
955 PM UPDATE: TOUCHED UP SKY COVER, AS CLOUDS HAVE ALL BUT
DISAPPEARED. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED CLOUDS OR PATCHES OF
FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES; OTHERWISE CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKIES OUT THERE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PLUNGE BELOW
ZERO OR SINGLE DIGITS OUT THERE THIS EVENING. A FEW LOCATIONS
ARE ALREADY -10F OR LOWER...SUCH AS HARFORD, WOODGATE,
AND MORRISVILLE NY. WALTON, TULLY AND BERKSHIRE ARE 9 BELOW
ZERO AT THIS TIME. HAD TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS ANOTHER 1-3
DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. NOW EXPECTING BETWEEN -8F AND +5 IN
NE PA...WITH 0 TO 10 BELOW FOR MOST OF CNY; EXCEPT ISOLATED
READINGS DOWN TO 15 BELOW.
620 PM UPDATE:
1036MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING,
WITH CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING LAKE
CLOUDS OVER THE FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURES ABSOLUTELY PLUMMETED
IN THE PAST FEW HOURS SINCE SUNSET. ITS ALREADY BETWEEN -6F AND
+9 F ACROSS CNY AS OF 615 PM OBSERVATIONS...AND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW 10S IN NE PA. DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS CONSIDERABLY
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS, FRESH SNOW COVER, LIGHT WINDS AND
DROPPING DEW POINTS. USED THE NBM 5TH PERCENTILE AND EVEN WENT A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ANY HIGH CLOUDS DON'T
MOVE IN UNTIL 6AM OR LATER, AND THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN
PLACE. FORECAST LOWS NOW RANGE FROM -10F TO +5F OVER THE REGION.
345 PM UPDATE...
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LINGERING DOWNWIND OF
THE FINGER LAKES WILL BE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
CURRENTLY IN PLACE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO BECOMES LIGHTER AND MORE
WESTERLY IN NATURE. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE, A FRESH SNOW PACK
AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY SETTING UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE TAKEN DOWN SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE NBM, GENERALLY RANGING FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5
ABOVE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD TOMORROW MORNING
LEADING TO A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY, BUT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON, CLOUDS
WILL START TO BUILD IN BUT IT REMAINS DRY. WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING IN ALOFT AND THE 850MB WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, IT WON'T BE NEARLY AS HARSH IN THE AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNY, AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
345 PM UPDATE...
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA, THERE CAN BE SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY EVENING MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TOWARD THE TUG HILL. THE SURFACE LOW WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER WILL TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES MONDAY EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE SUPPORTING POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWFALL. THE STEADIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS TO FALL BETWEEN THE LATE
EVENING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING
MORE INTERMITTENT THE REST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. A GENERAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED, MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA
ON NORTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNY SOUTH
OF ROUTE 20 WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW
HEADLINES BEING ISSUED. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID
TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE UPPER
30S.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID 20S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
135 PM UPDATE:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, WHICH WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN POSSIBLY
SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN, THEN POTENTIALLY CHANGING TO RAIN
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS RIDGING REMAINING IN
CONTROL, KEEPING US WITH DRY WEATHER.
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM (WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
TOWARDS THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME).
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATER TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON, AND SKIES
WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MVFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR OR WORSE, WILL
LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK/MJM
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...MPK
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