030
FXUS61 KBGM 031741
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
141 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER TO START THE WEEK AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION.
2) AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MIDWEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE DRY THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE, A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES WILL KICK OFF SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL NY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT AND WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH MILDER AIR IN PLACE,
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. IF ANY
FROST CAN DEVELOP, IT WILL BE PATCHY AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER TO START THE WORK WEEK, CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MONDAY WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 20 TO 25 MPH BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY BE
HIGHER. WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KICKOFF SPOTTY
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR, SO ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY AND
WILL BRIEFLY STALL OUT. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES STRUNG ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY WHILE AREAS MORE SOUTH
AND EAST ARE LIKELY TO STAY MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME
HOURS, POSSIBLY EVEN LATER. BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM,
MLCAPE VALUES ARE MODELED AT 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH SHEAR OF AT LEAST
30 KTS. LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO FAIRLY STEEP AT 6 TO 7 C/KM SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS IF ANYTHING WILL
FIRE OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT OR IF THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN QUICK
ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS. FOR NOW, SPC KEEPS US
IN GENERAL THUNDER AND GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, THAT SEEMS TO BE A
FAIR ASSESSMENT. AS MENTIONED, THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY REFLECT THAT AS
THEY CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND EVEN LOW 80S. THE RAIN WILL BECOME A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS TO DIP INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WITH COLDER AIR QUICK TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE
WILL END UP BEING A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S IN NORTH-CENTRAL NY TO UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST PA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL, AND THE
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT INCHES THROUGH THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DRY FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT, SO TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REBOUND MUCH, IF AT ALL,
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A
COASTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE NORTHEAST. A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER
WESTERN CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE TROUGH PASS THROUGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SOME GUIDANCE FAVOR THE RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WHILE OTHERS KEEP RAIN PRESENT
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING, THEN RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM 06-12Z ACROSS CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY... MAINLY VFR, BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...ES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page