711
FXUS61 KBGM 021743
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
143 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FREEZE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY AND NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES REGIONS. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED, TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER ONE MORE COLD NIGHT, THE WEEKEND WILL END DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
3) TEMPERATURES THEN FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT, INSTABILITY RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND
ANYTHING THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AS DRIER AIR REMAINS PRESENT
NEAR THE SURFACE. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADITIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES TANKING INTO THE 20S AND 30S. A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY AND NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES.
THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE COLDER AIR RETREATS NORTHWARD AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
WINDS INCREASING DURING THE DAY AND GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 25 MPH.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S AS WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOME CALMER. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE REGION AND
BRING SPOTTY SHOWERS TO PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL NY, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION, HELPING CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND POTENTIALLY LOW 70S ON MONDAY. THEN MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MORE MILD, ONLY FALLING INTO THE 40S AND
50S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THIS, IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME OF THE REGION WILL SEE CONTINUOUS RAIN
DURING THE DAY AND COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FORECASTED WHILE
OTHERS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. MODELED INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000
J/KG OF MLCAPE AND SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
AT LEAST 6 TO 7 C/KM, SO TUESDAY WILL BE A PERIOD TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY INCH ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
CLOUDY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
COLDER AIR WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONT ON
THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT FINALLY EXITING THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND WILL DRIFT
NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS LOW WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATE HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 50S AND LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE MINIMAL AND THERE ISN'T ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN ANY
ONE SITE'S FORECAST AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, EASING OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MAINLY VFR, BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
PAZ044-047.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NYZ015>018.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...ES/MPK
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