465
FXUS61 KBGM 071857
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
157 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
ONGOING HEADLINES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ARCTIC AIRMASS WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. ALSO, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NY INTO
SUNDAY.
2) A REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WITH MANY
OBSERVATIONS SEEING TEMPERATURES ALREADY BELOW ZERO THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 MPH AND THE
COLD AND WIND COMBINED HAS PRODUCED DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25
TO 35 BELOW ZERO. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA UNTIL 1PM SUNDAY.
ALSO, ANOTHER ISSUE IS THE STRONG WINDS IS CAUSING BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW, FURTHER COMPLICATING REMOVAL EFFORTS.
FINALLY, THE VERY COLD AIRMASS (850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -28C)
COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW, WILL RESULT IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. SNOW WILL
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT MOST OF THE TIME WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7AM SUNDAY.
WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW FOR THOSE AREAS AS WELL, REDUCING VISIBILITY AND CAUSING
HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
RELIEF TO THE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE THE BEGINNING OF
THIS WEEK. BINGHAMTON AIRPORT HAS SEEN 15 DAYS IN A ROW WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 DEGREES AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
FINALLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING IN IS
SOMEWHAT FLAT, SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAN THIS WEEK, IT WILL STILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW
30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC,
CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING SOME
POTENTIAL SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY. BEHIND THE FRONT,
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20-40 KNOTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. AS A RESULT BLSN WILL CAUSE A WIDE RANGE OF
VISIBILITIES TODAY, DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. UNCERTAINITY IS HIGH
FOR TIMING THE BRIEF INTERVALS OF BLSN. CEILINGS SHOULD MAINLY
BE MVFR TO FUEL ALT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VARIABILITY TO THE VFR
RANGE TODAY AT TIMES AND TO IFR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY... SOME RESTRICTIONS FROM ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND
BLOWING SNOW.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ016>018-
025-044.
DISCUSSION...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...ES/MWG
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