367  
FXUS61 KBGM 141941  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
341 PM EDT WED APR 14 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON  
THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN, MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE  
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NEW YORK. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL  
SLOWLY DEPART BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A FEW PASSING COLD FRONTS  
WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND  
EAST OF I-81. MESOSCALE MODELS DO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS  
DEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS  
A POTENTIAL LULL IN THE SHOWERS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE A  
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT COME IN FROM THE WEST.  
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS  
AND STEADY RAIN OVERNIGHT. THROUGH TONIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK  
LIGHT UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH AS THE SYSTEM OVERALL HAS  
TRENDED SLOWER WITH DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP  
TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 40'S ACROSS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE  
THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RISE STAYING IN THE 40'S DUE  
TO CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN. HOWEVER, EAST OF I-81  
WHERE THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A FEW DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELING  
HAS ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY NUDGED THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE  
EAST WHICH LOWERS RAIN CHANCES WEST OF I-81 A LITTLE MORE. WHILE  
RAIN CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER STEADY QPF HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD  
FOR THIS EVENT WITH MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT. LESS THAN HALF OF INCH OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WEST  
OF I-81 WITH TOP QPF AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE  
WESTERN CATSKILLS. WITH THE LOWER QPF, ANY POTENTIAL FOR MINOR  
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE.  
 
BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, EVAPORATIONAL ANDS  
DYNAMICAL COOLING STILL LOOK TO BE ENOUGH FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS  
OF MAINLY DELAWARE AND OTSEGO COUNTIES FROM RAIN TO SNOW.  
SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE FAIRLY HEAVY FOR A FEW HOURS WITH SOME OF  
THE HIGHEST PEAKS GETTING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. CONTINUED HWO  
MENTION FOR NOW. BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO PINWHEEL  
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDS  
AND PRECIPITATION UNDER A COLD POOL ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
IN 30'S AND 40'S THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS ARE  
ALSO TO PICK UP WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS SHOWING THE  
POTENTIAL FOR 15-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ON SATURDAY, A VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE WILL TRACK WELL EAST OFF  
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND BEGIN TO FILL. NY AND PA INITIALLY WILL BE  
IN A DEEP MOIST AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WRAP AROUND PART OF  
THIS CYCLONE. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE MOISTURE LINGERING SATURDAY  
MORNING WITH THE NAM BEING A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS WOULD  
SUGGEST FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A DEEPER  
MOISTURE PROFILE. BY AFTERNOON GFS MAINTAINS THIS DEEPER MOIST LAYER  
EVEN WITH A MIXED LAYER UP TO 3000 FEET OR SO. AND THEREFORE THE GFS  
HAS LIGHT QPF ALL DAY SATURDAY. THE NAM HAS SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND  
JUST A TOUCH OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN THE MORNING. THE EURO IS  
SIMILAR TO THE NAM AND THE CMC IS IN BETWEEN BOTH MODELS. THE NBM IS  
SHOWING DRY AND NO QPF. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, WE LIKELY WILL SEE  
A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL END  
BY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE. ADDED SLIGHT  
CHANCE POPS FOR A LARGE PART OF CWA SATURDAY MORNING. NO SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL  
WAVE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH OF NORTHEAST PA/CENTRAL NY AND SHEARS OUT.  
EURO AND GFS BOTH KEEP MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLEAR OF QPF. THE  
CMC STILL HAS LINGERING MOISTURE FROM DEPARTING CYCLONE WELL OFF THE  
NEW ENGLAND COAST. NBM IS DRY AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS.  
 
FOR SUNDAY, COLD AIR ALOFT WILL OVERLAY FAIRLY MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND  
EURO AND GFS BOTH ARE SHOWING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LIGHT QPF IN THE  
SUGGESTING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BUBBLING UP WITH CONVECTIVE  
HEATING. WE WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS AND WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE  
AFTERNOON WITH THE CONVECTIVE HEATING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, ALL THIS  
LIGHT ACTIVITY WANES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. BASICALLY, THE NBM HAS A  
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TIME PERIOD AND FOLLOWED FOR POPS.  
 
FOR MONDAY, MODELS DIVERGE A BIT AND STILL SUGGEST A LITTLE WEAK  
CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE WILL GO WITH NBM WHICH HAS SPRINKLES  
FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NY. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION ON  
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN  
FOLLOWED NBM CLOSELY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY WITH  
MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS. AS RAIN AND MIST MOVES INTO  
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO MVFR AT  
MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL  
DEVELOP AT KRME, KITH AND KBGM BY 16Z IN RAIN AND MIST.  
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THIS FAR OUT ON THE RESTRICTIONS.  
 
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST UNDER 10 KNOTS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL  
AS WINTRY MIX AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. WINTRY MIX  
WILL MAINLY AFFECT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.  
 
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED  
RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY VFR.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MWG  
NEAR TERM...MWG  
SHORT TERM...MWG  
LONG TERM...DJN  
AVIATION...DJN  
 
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