543
FXUS61 KBGM 201051
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
651 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. TUESDAY IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE OUR
MOST ACTIVE DAY FOR THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING, AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE A GENERALLY DRY
PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH MODEST
WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TODAY, A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY MORNING. A DEEP 990S MB SURFACE LOW OVER CANADA WILL
DRAG THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH. A SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE LEADING WARM FRONT WILL HELP SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT, A COLD
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH, THOUGH THE TIMING OF ITS
PASSAGE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND MAY LAG. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY FRONT MAY TURN OUT TO THE BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY ON INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
RANGING FROM JUST A FEW HUNDRED TO OVER 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE SHEAR WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE 40 TO 50 KTS BASED ON MOST GUIDANCE. EVEN WITH THE WIDE
RANGE OF INSTABILITY VALUES, CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WHILE ALL HAZARDS LOOK
TO BE POSSIBLE, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS WITH STRONG GUSTS
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR OUR REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROJECTED INTO THE 1.5 TO 2
INCHES RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL BE 10 TO 12 THOUSAND
FEET, WHICH WOULD FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. IF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH CAUSES MOST CONVECTION TO EXIT, THAN THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE CELLS MAY MITIGATE THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT.
HOWEVER, IF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS-EMBEDDED STORMS LINGER BACK WITH
THE FRONT ITSELF THEN THERE COULD BE REPEATED BATCHES TO CAUSE
POTENTIAL ISSUES. WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE AREA IN AT LEAST A LOWER END RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TUESDAY. GIVEN THAT SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVED OVER 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE LAST STORM SYSTEM, ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED HYDRO ISSUES IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS DESPITE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS IN BETWEEN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY THAT COULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST,
CUTTING OFF ANY REMAINING SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY BUT WILL TREND MODESTLY WARMER
BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S AS WEAK RIDGING
OCCURS ALOFT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR WHETHER WEAK WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE COULD MANAGE SMALL SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND; THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR MAY BE TOO MUCH
TO OVERCOME. WHILE IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
RETURN LATE THIS WEEK, THE PATTERN OF A RIDGE OUT WEST AND
TROUGH IN THE EAST WOULD BE FAVORABLE FLOW FOR OFF-AND-ON SMOKE
AT TIMES OVER THE NORTHEAST.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LIFR RESTRICTIONS HAVE SETTLED INTO ELM THANKS TO VALLEY FOG.
THESE RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING INTO AVP LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT BGM.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MDP
AVIATION...JTC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page