331
FXUS61 KBGM 112356
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. SOME INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW AND
SNOW THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
WEAK LAKE EFFECT IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS.
2) INDICATIONS TRENDING TOWARD THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG A FRONT BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. STILL
QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINITY 4-5 DAYS OUT.
3) ANOTHER POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SQUALLS CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD
DROP BRIEFLY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING AHEAD OF THE BAND BUT MAY FALL JUST BELOW
FREEZING AS IT MOVES THROUGH. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE ONLY
GOTTEN WET ROADS IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO AS A RESULT. ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET THOUGH MAY SLICKEN SURFACES A BIT. A
LIGHT LAKE RETURN IS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER THE
TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. AN ODD
SETUP WITH ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL ENERGY COMING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF A TROUGH TO FORM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
FRONT. THE GFS/GEFS ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT 12Z ECMWF DEVELOP
AN AREA OF ANTIFRONTAL SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. NUDGED
THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. HOWEVER, SEVERAL DIFFERENT
COMPONENTS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER NEAR OUR REGION SO
UNCERTAINITY IS STILL HIGH 4-5 DAYS OUT. IF A COASTAL LOW CAN
FORM, WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS/GEFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FORMING A
COASTAL LOW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. HOWEVER, MOST MODELING
IS JUST INDICATING SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME GIVEN A PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES MAY END UP COLDER THAN FORECASTED FROM THE
NBM LATER IN THE WEEK AS MODELED 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FROM
-10 TO -20C. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE GET ANY CLEAR
NIGHTS WITH SNOW COVER.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOME HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE
REGION. BGM AND AVP COULD SEE SOME BRIEF IFR TO LIFR WITH THE
SNOW SHOWERS, WITH BGM CHANCES GOING DOWN AFTER 1Z AND AVP AFTER
2Z. SNOW SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING TO THE WEST SO THE IFR
WAS REDUCED AT SYR AND RME, AND THE MVFR RESTRICTIONS ENDED
EARLIER AT ITH AND ELM AS WELL.
TOMORROW HAS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH CNY SO MVFR CIGS
AND VIS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AT SYR AND RME WITH LOWER CHANCES
SOUTH. SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SO ITS POSSIBLE
THERE COULD BE IFR AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTERNOON AT SYR AND
RME.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR; CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT SYR AND
RME.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR; EXCEPT A CHANCE FOR LINGERING MVFR CIGS
AT RME AND SYR.
WEDNESDAY....RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS, CHANGING
TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE
AREA.
FRIDAY....A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE (LOW CHANCE),
OTHERWISE VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...AJG
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