143
FXUS61 KBGM 301131
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
631 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SYSTEM CLIPS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW OVERNIGHT. AFTER A QUIET START TO THE WORK WEEK, THE NEXT
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MOST OF THE AREA
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND TODAY,
BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. INITIALLY
THIS MORNING, CONDITIONS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS, SO WHILE
SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING, IT MAY BE A COUPLE OF
HOURS UNTIL PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND. DUE TO THIS, POPS WERE
LOWERED BELOW NBM GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN THIS MORNING, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PICK UP WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND
30 DURING THE DAYTIME.
AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S TODAY, SNOW WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN, MAINLY IN THE WARMER, LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL STAY AS MAINLY SNOW BUT COULD BRIEFLY SEE PERIODS OF
A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. OVERNIGHT, THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BUT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY, MAINLY DOWN INTO THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES
AND MOHAWK VALLEY. DURING THIS TIME, SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH MOISTURE LACKING IN THE DGZ THOUGH LITTLE TO NO
ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S.
THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECASTED SNOWFALL TOTALS AS MOST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH. IN FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY, TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 4" SO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AND BRING
DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME CALMER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH AN EARLIER ARRIVAL WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE TO THE NORTH WILL MERGE WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD, SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
THE WETTER NAM NOW IN THE PICTURE, NBM GUIDANCE AS INCREASED IN QPF.
HOWEVER, THE NAM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS IT IS BY FAR THE WARMEST
WITH THE MOST INLAND SOLUTION. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM
ALONG THE COAST THOUGH THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES ON THE EXACT
TRACK. GIVEN THIS, WPC GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN WITH THE NBM TO LOWER
QPF AND SLRS TO EVENTUALLY LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS TO MINIMIZE SUCH A
LARGE JUMP IN THE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE THERE MAY BE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MORE INLAND TRACK
WOULD RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS WHICH THEN WOULD LEAD TO MORE RAIN
THAN SNOW FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 6" HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS AS THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGES ARE OVER THE
POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. THIS FORECAST UPDATE MATCHES WELL WITH THOSE
PROBABILITIES AS THE FIRST GUESS AT SNOWFALL TOTALS INCLUDES AN AREA
OF 5 TO 8" MAINLY EAST OF I-81 AND DOWN INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE WYOMING VALLEY REGION. THESE TOTALS ALSO INCLUDE THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE
DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WILL
BE LIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT AREAS IN CENTRAL NY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, NO HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH
THIS UPDATE. HOWEVER, IF FUTURE GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AND QPF CONTINUES TO TREND HIGHER, THEN HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY BUT THEN DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY, LEADING TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD. A
STRONG COLD FRONT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SQUALLS AS WELL. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. BREEZY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO OR EVEN JUST BELOW ZERO. AFTER THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS FROM 20-30 KNOTS AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
AFTER 16Z. CEILINGS LIKELY SETTLE FROM 2,500-3,500 FEET TONIGHT.
WHILE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY, POTENTIALLY IFR OR LIFR VISIBILITIES TUESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR; SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND SYR AND RME.
THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009.
SYNOPSIS...BTL/DK
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MWG
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