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FXUS61 KBGM 031929
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
329 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS
STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FORM TODAY SO FAR WITH DRY AIR ALOFT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS IN NORTHEAST PA.
2) COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BREAKS OF SUN HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1000 TO 2000 JOULES OF SURFACE CAPE AS OF 2
PM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES HAVE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERHEAD SO
AS IT CONTINUES TO WARM, WE MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT WHICH WILL
LOWER THE SBCAPE. THERE IS ALSO NOT AN EVIDENT TRIGGER/SHORTWAVE
COMING IN TO HELP SPARK OFF SOME STORMS UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING WHICH COULD BE AFTER WE STABILIZE. SHEAR
IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG STORMS AND SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IF
SOMETHING WAS TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP AND DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT STORMS COULD
ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AGAIN IN WESTERN PA AND MOVE INTO
NEPA EARLY TONIGHT BETWEEN 9 PM AND 11 PM SO THAT AREA CONTINUES
TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC WITH A SLIVER OF A MARGINAL RISK AND
SLIGHT RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER TODAY, THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL US WILL FLATTEN A BIT
ALLOWING FOR THE TROUGH IN NEW ENGLAND TO NUDGE IN. THIS PUTS US
UNDER COOLER, NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW FROM TOMORROW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT DOES LOOK FAIRLY DRY, THE COOLER FLOW OVER
THE WARM GREAT LAKES MAY RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
AT TIMES THOUGH THEY WILL BE SPOTTY AND SHORT LIVED IF THEY DO
EVEN OCCUR.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER ARE OCCASIONALLY LEADING TO
PERIODS OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND THAT WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTH, ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM ITH ON SOUTH, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
BEING AROUND AVP, WHICH CONTINUES TO HAVE A PROB30 GROUP INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. IF ANYTHING LOOKS TO REACH ITH, ELM OR BGM,
THIS WILL BE HANDLED BY AMENDMENTS. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN IS ALSO BEING SHOWN BY MOST CAMS TO MOVE
ACROSS NE PA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, AND CLIP
AVP, SO AN ADDITIONAL PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THIS
FEATURE.
IT ALSO APPEARS THAT WE'LL HAVE SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO CONTEND WITH AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST LOW-LEVELS FROM
RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z, MAINLY ACROSS NE PA.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR; ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AVP.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR; AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG POSSIBLE EARLY EACH DAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...DK
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