054
FXUS61 KBGM 132344
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
744 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, QPF AND THUNDER CHANCES INTO THIS
EVENING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY. INCREASED WIND GUSTS POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1)THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE STORMS WILL BE ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND ONEIDA COUNTY.
2) WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SOME BREAKS OF SUN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES.
3) A LARGE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
AND A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR AS OF 1:30 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD NUDGE A BIT MORE NORTH AND EAST, CLEARING
THE CWA HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT HAVE SURGE INTO THE MID-70S TO LOWER 80S AS EXPECTED,
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY, AS MLCAPE LIKELY REACHES 500-800 J/KG BY
LATE AFTERNOON. BULK, DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS INCREASING AND SHOULD BE
40-45 KTS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NY HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. A WEAK PERTURBATION IS OBSERVED CROSSING LAKE AMERICA AND ERIE
AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 4-8
PM, AND INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS EVENT IS MISSING STRONG FORCING TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WITH THAT SAID, THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM TO BRING SOME HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. CONSIDERING THE ROBUST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY PRESENT,
ALSO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SPIN UP (TORNADO).
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND FADE TO JUST LINGERING
SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 9 PM BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS.
THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AND VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ARRIVES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES.
BASED ON CURRENT UPSTREAM SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN, IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A STRATUS OR
STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUD DECK FORM OVER CENTRAL NY AND EXTEND INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF NE PA THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS NE PA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW THICK
AND PERSISTENT THE CLOUD COVER IS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR CENTRAL NY, WITH UPPER 60S TO MID-70S IN NE PA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY. AFTER
SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS IT SHOULD TURN MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE
REGION. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA,
NEAR LAKES ERIE AND AMERICA. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY,
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAINFALL ALONG THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE A FEW BRIEF DRY SLOTS ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE WILL ALSO
BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND IN THE ROBUST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE
COLD FRONT THEN TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
HOURS. THE WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE
BETWEEN 15-25 MPH...GUSTS COULD REACH 30-40 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO
NEARLY 750MB LEVEL. WIND ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER GUSTS INCREASES.
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS, 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -8C
TO -10C LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR WET SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN, OR BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND JUST
HOW MUCH THE LAKES WILL GET INVOLVED. WITH THAT SAID, WE CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME MINOR, LOCALIZED SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE DOWNRIGHT BLUSTERY AND COLD
FOR MID OCTOBER STANDARDS, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 10S TO
20S IN THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACH THE UPPER
30S TO MID-40S. NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THIS COLD BLAST,
MAKE SURE YOUR HEATING SOURCE IS READY TO GO FOR THE SEASON AND
HAVE PROPER CLOTHING ON HAND IF YOU NEED TO BE OUTSIDE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD ONE SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT WINDS DIMINISH UNDER 10 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP DOWN INTO THE MID-20S TO LOWER 30S AREAWIDE.
LOOKING AHEAD, A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO KEEP OUR
WEATHER DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MOST DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND SYR AND RME
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WIND SHIFT TO NWERLY IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES TO THE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BRING
MVFR TO FUEL ALT CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP FOG AND IFR RESTRICTIONS AT
ELM, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE THAT SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY AND LIMIT CEILINGS TO FUEL
ALT.
SPEAKING OF STRONG WINDS, LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
AVP/BGM/ELM BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AS A LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. 35KTS OF SHEAR OUT OF THE WSW
UP TO FL020 IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO NEPA.
WEDNESDAY, CIGS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE MVFR RANGE AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND MOISTURE INCREASES
AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT. A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
VALLEY FOG AT ELM.
FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME EARLY SEASON SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...JTC/SJW
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