666
FXUS61 KBGM 311041
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
KICKOFF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TODAY
BUT COLDER AIR WILL BE QUICK TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. ANOTHER WARM UP
IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
625 AM UPDATE...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES TO BETTER
MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND 60S
THOUGH A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS IN N. ONEIDA AND CATSKILLS ARE
STILL IN THE 40S. A DRY SLOT IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BUT THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING. SKY COVER WAS
UPDATED TO TRY AND CAPTURE THIS. AFTER A PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT, THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST AND WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
400 AM UPDATE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT, STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO
THE REGION AND HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO 60S AND 70S. THIS FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS EARLY, WARMER CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP AT MANY
LOCATIONS, BUT THAT LOOKS TO ERODE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND DOWN
INTO NEPA. NORTHWARD, THE CAP HOLDS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL.
THIS MATCHES UP WITH THE TIMING OF STORMS AS THOSE LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE HIGHER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO BECOME
UNSTABLE. MODELED MLCAPE IS 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN THE AREAS WHERE THE
CAP ERODES. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE 40 TO 50 KTS, ENOUGH FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE IN
PLAY. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND WITH CAPE EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE, LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP
ENHANCE SHEAR, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SLIGHT CURVES IN
HODOGRAPHS ARE SEEN IN SOME SAMPLE POINTS IN NEPA, SO BRIEF
SPIN UPS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS ALL LINES UP WELL WITH THE
LATEST SPC OUTLOOK. THE SLIGHT RISK WAS REDUCED TO THE WYOMING
VALLEY, POCONOS, AND CATSKILLS. THIS IS WHERE THEY MAINTAIN A 2%
TORNADO RISK AS WELL. THE MARGINAL RISK WAS ALSO MODIFIED TO
ONLY COVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SUSQUEHANNA REGIONS
EVERYWHERE ELSE IS UNDER GENERAL THUNDER DUE TO THE EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
THE STORMS AND FRONT WILL BE QUICK TO DEPART, EXITING THE
REGION BY AROUND SUNSET. LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
LATER IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH COLD, NORTHWEST FLOW PRESENT
OVER THE REGION. WHILE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
CNY, CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR POCKETS OF SLEET AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
20S AND 30S TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING, THOUGH IT MAY BE REDUCED TO JUST FLURRIES. NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS OBSERVED. A
DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND THIS SHOULD CUT
OFF ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION BY MIDDAY. IT MAY FEEL
SHOCKINGLY COLD TOMORROW AS FORECASTED HIGHS ARE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO
THE 30S AND 40S. IT WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WINDS
GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE ARE SLIGHT CONCERNS FOR CONDITIONS
BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO
AROUND 30% FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, AND COULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN
FORECASTED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
415 AM UPDATE
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
DRY WEATHER, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN
INITIAL WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. EVENTUALLY A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVES EAST, FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS TO CENTRAL NY/NE PA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE, NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
FOR EARLY APRIL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S. SOUTH WINDS
BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY, 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, AS A 850MB LOW LEVEL JET REACHES 55-65 KTS OVER
THE FINGER LAKES AND HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS (OFTEN A GOOD PROXY FOR GUST SPEEDS) ARE IMPRESSIVE,
REACHING 40+ KTS IN THIS SAME AREA...THIS COULD EQUATE TO
OCCASIONAL VERY GUSTY WINDS, DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION ENDS UP BEING. BESIDES THE WINDS, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNY CLOSER
TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND STALLS ON THURSDAY OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH PERHAPS SOME MORE DRY TIME IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IT IS TRENDING VERY WARM AND
EVEN A LITTLE HUMID ON THURSDAY (DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S
POSSIBLE) AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S. WITH THESE
WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE
AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS NE PA
AND THE NY SOUTHERN TIER AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NW PERIPHERY
OF A STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH; THIS WILL ACT TO STREAM
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
420 AM UPDATE
A WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO SLIDE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY; SWITCHING THE OVERALL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA, BUT A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTH INTO
NE PA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. MILD, BUT NOT AS WARM AS
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-50S TO MID-60S OVER THE REGION. IT
LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL, BUT THE SURFACE HIGH
IS PUSHED NORTHEAST, AWAY FROM THE AREA HEADING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THE LATEST DATA IS POINT TO AN UNSETTLES AND
SHOWERY WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, WITH AMPLE MOISTURE,
WILL EJECT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATER
SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT WILL
INITIALLY BE MILD OVER THE WEEKEND A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FOR AT
LEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND PERHAPS
EVEN ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL POSSIBLE AT A FEW
TERMINALS UNTIL 14Z. THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ARE PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION AND RME AND SYR WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SOME THESE. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO FALL INTO MVFR LATER
THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THOUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO BOUNCE VFR AND MVFR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS
FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE ONLY TERMINALS THAT COULD SEE AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE BGM AND AVP. BECAUSE OF THE LOW
CHANCES THAT A STORM WILL IMPACT EITHER ONE OF THESE TERMINALS,
THUNDER WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF. BEHIND THE FRONT, RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH THE CNY TERMINALS STUCK IN MVFR OR
FUEL ALT THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION, LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
FLURRIES AT SYR, ITH, AND BGM. AVP WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE IN
THE PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD DUE TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS START OUT SOUTHERLY BUT WILL THEN BE
NORTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT. GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS MAY END UP BRIEFLY
HIGHER AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ESPECIALLY IF A SHOWER OR
STORM WERE TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY AT CNY TERMINALS,
THEN BECOMING MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR TO START, RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BTL
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