783
FXUS61 KBGM 191843
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
143 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL
MAKE FOR A COLD NIGHT. CLOUDS STREAM IN LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT BUT A LOW
PASSING THROUGH PA MAY BRING SOME BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE
POCONOS AND WYOMING VALLEY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN TODAY WITH CALM WINDS
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT
AND SUBTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE
FAIRLY THIN AND WITH THE CALM WINDS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GET COLDER THAN MODELED SO THE NBM10TH WAS
BLENDED IN TO DROP LOWS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. A SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY WITH THICKENING CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY. IF THE CLOUDS CAN GET OPAQUE ENOUGH IN
THE MORNING, DAY TIME HIGHS MAY REMAIN COLD IF MOST SOLAR
RADIATION IS BLOCKED OFF PREVENTING MUCH HEATING BUT HIGHS WERE
NOT DEVIATED FROM MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SHORTWAVES ARE LOOKING TO PASS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THOUGH WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE, SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH.
IN NEPA, THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY TRENDING NORTH SO THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MAY CLIP THE POCONOS AND
THE WYOMING VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE SOUTHERN
SHORTWAVE ARE WARM SO THE PRECIPITATION RATE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ALL RAIN.
A COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL TO
AROUND - 4C AND WITH THE LAKES COOLER, WITH SSTS IN THE 40S
NOW, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO GENERATE MUCH
INSTABILITY SO LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
FORMING. STILL LEFT IN SOME CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION JUST IN
CASE SOME COOLER AIR CAN ADVECT IN OR IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD
FORMATION TO GENERATE A BIT OF DRIZZLE DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEXT WEEK STARTS OFF ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING IN PLACE. TRENDS IN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A
FLATTER RIDGE SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE AVERAGES RATHER THAN BEING WELL ABOVE. ENSEMBLE MEAN
FLOW AT 250 MB SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A STRONG ZONAL JET OVER
THE NORTHEAST US WITH SOME TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
US. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS SO THERE IS LIKELY
GOING TO BE SOME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
RIGHT NOW MOST MODEL MEMBERS DO NOT HAVE VERY DEEP LOWS FORMING
BUT ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF HAS TRENDED HIGHER SLOWLY FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE SLP MEANS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW IN THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE KEPT HIGH FOR
MID NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE KEPT MOSTLY RAIN
EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT WITH THE SW FLOW AND LOW
PASSING TO THE WEST.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE CNY TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. A CLOUD DECK AT SYR AND RME IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
AVP WILL ALSO SEE CEILINGS REMAIN JUST ABOVE 3K FEET THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING LATER TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OFF AND ON PERIODS OF
RAIN DURING THE DAY AND SNOW/WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...JTC/MPK
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