769
FXUS61 KBGM 210238
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
938 PM EST THU FEB 20 2020
SYNOPSIS
A FEW LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NY AND PA THIS WEEKEND WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
9:30 PM UPDATE...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
THE MET WHICH HAS BEEN BETTER OF LATE. CLOUDS MOSTLY JUST FROM
LAKE EFFECT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. RADAR RETURNS SOUTHEAST OF
ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES APPEAR TO BE ONLY FLURRIES.
630 PM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
INTO SYRACUSE AND ROME FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND MORE DOWNWIND OF
THE FINGER LAKES. OTHERWISE RADAR SHOWING VERY LITTLE. FEWER
CLOUDS THEN FORECAST NOW. A LITTLE RESURGENCE FOR CLOUDS IN CNY
WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSING THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT WILL WEAKEN
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN AND
WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.
240 PM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN NY AND SPILLING INTO THE NRN TIER OF PA...THEN
SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME INTO THE
NRN FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SRN TUG HILL THIS
EVENING BEFORE MOVING OUT LATER TONIGHT.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WAVE STRETCHED OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST BACK TO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES MOVING SLOWLY TO THE E/SE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS IS BEING
FORCED WITH THE HELP OF SOME WEAK BL INSTABILITY...AND PRODUCING
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS AND ALSO MIXING DOWN SOME GUSTY 20-25 MPH
WINDS AT TIMES AS WELL.
THIS DIFFUSE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH
AND DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W AND EVENTUALLY W/SW...WHICH
WILL SHIFT THE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/SRN TUG HILL AREA
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 1 INCH
WITH MOST OF THE SNOW DONE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AS WELL, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPID SOLAR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEEN ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS IN FAR NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH QUIET WEATHER, LIGHT SW WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS
WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
OVERALL, A VERY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL.
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY, THEN OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ITS INFLUENCE WILL EXTEND WELL NORTH TO OUR
AREA, WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES STARTING FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY, BUT TRENDING
HIGHER AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
BECOMES MORE INVOLVED.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE HIGH MAY ALLOW SOME CLOUDS
TO SKIM PARTS OF CENTRAL NY SATURDAY, DURING OTHERWISE BENIGN
WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES REACH 30S TO LOWER 40S. UPPER TEENS-MID
20S SATURDAY NIGHT, WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY UPPER 30S-UPPER 40S
SUNDAY COURTESY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST PA COULD EVEN GET AROUND
50 DEGREES. STILL QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS OF 20S TO LOWER
30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
230 PM UPDATE...
OVERALL, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS, BUT OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.
500 AM UPDATE...
MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH THAT IS PROJECTED TO DROP INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO COLDER WEATHER
ADVANCING INTO OUR REGION BEYOND THAT TIMEFRAME, BUT UNTIL THEN
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS WEAK WAVES RUN THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REACH
WELL INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS; PERHAPS EVEN LOWER 50S FOR SOME
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST PA.
AS TEMPERATURES DROP BEYOND MIDWEEK, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BECOME MORE COMPLICATED, AND THERE WILL BE PROSPECTS FOR DEEPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITHIN OUR REGION.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE IS STILL AFFECTING NORTHERN TERMINALS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE
THROUGH THE PERIOD BY MIDNIGHT OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN AND/OR
SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJT/TAC
NEAR TERM...BJT/TAC
SHORT TERM...BJG/MDP
LONG TERM...BJG/MDP
AVIATION...MPK
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