203
FXUS61 KBGM 221045
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SOMEWHAT COOL AND OCCASIONALLY SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH TODAY WITH ENOUGH LIFT
FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL NOSE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY PROVIDING A BRIEF BREAK FROM ANY
SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD END UP
FAIRLY QUIET BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. TYPICAL TIMING UNCERTAINTIES ARE PRESENT WITH
PARTICULAR FEATURES POSSIBLY SHIFTING 12-24 HOURS IN EITHER
DIRECTION PAST FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT SATURDAY THEN
AGAIN ON TUESDAY IF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS END UP BEING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE DAYLIGHT. MOST DAYS WITH SUNSHINE LOOK TO GET
INTO THE 60'S WITH SHOWERY DAYS STUCK IN THE 50'S. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY UNIFORM AROUND 40. DID INCREASE WINDS
SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY GIVEN AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS. STILL WOULD ONLY EXPECT TOP GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON TO
BE AROUND 20 MPH.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AS A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. A WARM FRONT IS GOING
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
OVERRUN LINGERING COLD AIR FROM THE RECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK.
THIS WILL CREATE AND INVERSION THAT WILL TRAP MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALLOW FOR AN MVFR CLOUD DECK
TO DEVELOP AROUND 12-13Z, LASTING INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE FOOTPRINT OF THIS MVFR DECK HAS SHRUNK A LITTLE
BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
DECK FORMING AT AVP/BGM/ITH THIS MORNING. AT RME, THE DECK
SHOULD BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
ELM AND SYR LOOK TO MISS OUT ON THE LOWER CEILINGS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MORE DRY AIR NEAR THESE TERMINALS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS AND WET
GROUND ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY, BGM/ELM/RME ARE SHOWING
STRONG ENOUGH SIGNALS TO PUT MVFR VISBY IN THE TAFS. IFR IS
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AVP/ITH/SYR ARE SHOWING HINTS OF FOG
CHANCES, BUT THE SIGNAL ISN'T STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS
TAF SET.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED; PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE; LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...JTC
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