672
FXUS61 KBGM 131745
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
145 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE,
WHICH COULD BRING SOME HIT AND MISS SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
2) A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLIGHTLY DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS MIXED DOWNWARD TO THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS CNY/NEPA. THIS WILL LEAD INTO A MAINLY CLEAR
NIGHT. GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY WET SOILS FROM
RECENT RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS.
A FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IS STILL
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTHS AT THAT POINT,
WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TIED TO THIS FEATURE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AFTER ANOTHER CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AGAIN, SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A
STELLAR DAY, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AND FAIRLY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR MID-AUGUST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT, A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY SUNDAY. NOTABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION FORCING AND
MOISTURE INFLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY,
WITH PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED THUNDER, LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRUDGE ACROSS
CNY/NEPA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT ALSO
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A MOIST AIR MASS AND
DECENT FORCED ASCENT FROM THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE AIR MASS COULD TAKE ON
PSEUDO-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON
SUNDAY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PERHAPS NEARING 2",
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NEPA. THIS RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL, WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5-2"+/HOUR LIKELY
SUPPORTED IN THAT TYPE OF REGIME. HOWEVER, THIS FAR OUT,
PERTINENT AND SPECIFIC DETAILS, LIKE THUNDERSTORM
LONGEVITY/REPEAT DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ARE NOT CLEAR. THIS IS A
SITUATION WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR WOULD ALSO MARGINALLY SUPPORT STRONGER WIND
GUST POTENTIAL, IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION COULD OCCUR
WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR. THIS SCENARIO ALSO HAS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY, THOUGH, WITH ENOUGH CLOUD DEBRIS PERHAPS PRESENT TO
TAMP DOWN INSTABILITY. ONCE AGAIN, WE'LL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL DECK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW-END VFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY AFTER 20Z THURSDAY. HREF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK WEST OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH FAIRLY HIGH
(~70-80%) CONFIDENCE. THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNAL FOR FOG AND/OR
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF NEW YORK. THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE DOES GO SLIGHTLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE FOR THIS POTENTIAL AT ELM BASED OFF OF MORE RECENT
GLAMP/NBM MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST ESTIMATED
TIMING FOR RESTRICTIONS AT ELM COMES AFTER 08Z FRIDAY BUT HAVE
SLIGHTLY THROWN THIS TIMEFRAME BACK GIVEN A LARGER T/TD SPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON. AT BGM, THIS POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS; HOWEVER,
HAVE KEPT MENTIONS AT P6SM/VCFG AS IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF
FOG WOULD BE SITUATED IN THE VALLEYS SURROUNDING THE AIRFIELD IN
THE 10Z-12Z FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
ANY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPMENT RAPIDLY MIXED OUT, WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY (~80-90% CONFIDENCE) AFTER 13Z
FRIDAY. HREF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SCATTERED LOW-
LEVEL DECK FORMS AS THE HIGHER CLOUD DECK SHIFTS OUT OF THE
REGION WITH CEILINGS LOOKING COMPARABLE TO THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DOES HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA, MAINLY AFTER 16Z FRIDAY; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW (LESS THAN 30%) TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF PACKAGE.
IF THESE SHOWERS WERE TO DEVELOP, AIRFIELDS OF MOST CONCERN AT
THIS TIME WOULD APPEAR TO BE SYR/RME/ITH THROUGH 18Z, WITH
ELM/BGM/AVP COMING AFTER 20Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING.
SUN...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH SHOWERS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
MON...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS,
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR
LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NWS STATE COLLEGE
AVIATION...NWS STATE COLLEGE
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