367
FXUS61 KBGM 141941
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
341 PM EDT WED APR 14 2021
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON
THURSDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN, MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NEW YORK. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY DEPART BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A FEW PASSING COLD FRONTS
WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
RADAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-81. MESOSCALE MODELS DO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS
A POTENTIAL LULL IN THE SHOWERS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT COME IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STEADY RAIN OVERNIGHT. THROUGH TONIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK
LIGHT UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH AS THE SYSTEM OVERALL HAS
TRENDED SLOWER WITH DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 40'S ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RISE STAYING IN THE 40'S DUE
TO CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN. HOWEVER, EAST OF I-81
WHERE THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A FEW DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELING
HAS ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY NUDGED THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE
EAST WHICH LOWERS RAIN CHANCES WEST OF I-81 A LITTLE MORE. WHILE
RAIN CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER STEADY QPF HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD
FOR THIS EVENT WITH MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. LESS THAN HALF OF INCH OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WEST
OF I-81 WITH TOP QPF AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS. WITH THE LOWER QPF, ANY POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE.
BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, EVAPORATIONAL ANDS
DYNAMICAL COOLING STILL LOOK TO BE ENOUGH FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF MAINLY DELAWARE AND OTSEGO COUNTIES FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE FAIRLY HEAVY FOR A FEW HOURS WITH SOME OF
THE HIGHEST PEAKS GETTING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. CONTINUED HWO
MENTION FOR NOW. BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO PINWHEEL
BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION UNDER A COLD POOL ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN 30'S AND 40'S THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS ARE
ALSO TO PICK UP WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER ANALYSIS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 15-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ON SATURDAY, A VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE WILL TRACK WELL EAST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND BEGIN TO FILL. NY AND PA INITIALLY WILL BE
IN A DEEP MOIST AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WRAP AROUND PART OF
THIS CYCLONE. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE MOISTURE LINGERING SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE NAM BEING A BIT DRIER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A DEEPER
MOISTURE PROFILE. BY AFTERNOON GFS MAINTAINS THIS DEEPER MOIST LAYER
EVEN WITH A MIXED LAYER UP TO 3000 FEET OR SO. AND THEREFORE THE GFS
HAS LIGHT QPF ALL DAY SATURDAY. THE NAM HAS SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND
JUST A TOUCH OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN THE MORNING. THE EURO IS
SIMILAR TO THE NAM AND THE CMC IS IN BETWEEN BOTH MODELS. THE NBM IS
SHOWING DRY AND NO QPF. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, WE LIKELY WILL SEE
A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
BY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE. ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A LARGE PART OF CWA SATURDAY MORNING. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH OF NORTHEAST PA/CENTRAL NY AND SHEARS OUT.
EURO AND GFS BOTH KEEP MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA CLEAR OF QPF. THE
CMC STILL HAS LINGERING MOISTURE FROM DEPARTING CYCLONE WELL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. NBM IS DRY AND WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS.
FOR SUNDAY, COLD AIR ALOFT WILL OVERLAY FAIRLY MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND
EURO AND GFS BOTH ARE SHOWING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LIGHT QPF IN THE
SUGGESTING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BUBBLING UP WITH CONVECTIVE
HEATING. WE WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS AND WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE CONVECTIVE HEATING. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, ALL THIS
LIGHT ACTIVITY WANES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. BASICALLY, THE NBM HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TIME PERIOD AND FOLLOWED FOR POPS.
FOR MONDAY, MODELS DIVERGE A BIT AND STILL SUGGEST A LITTLE WEAK
CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE WILL GO WITH NBM WHICH HAS SPRINKLES
FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NY. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION ON
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN
FOLLOWED NBM CLOSELY.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS. AS RAIN AND MIST MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO MVFR AT
MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AT KRME, KITH AND KBGM BY 16Z IN RAIN AND MIST.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THIS FAR OUT ON THE RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL
AS WINTRY MIX AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. WINTRY MIX
WILL MAINLY AFFECT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...DJN
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