863
FXUS61 KBGM 220524
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
124 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST PA LATER THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY.
2) THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A NOR'EASTER ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM APPEARS LIKE IT WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT IN OUR REGION, BUT IF THE LOW DOES TRACK FURTHER
WEST, SOME PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WILL
KEEP RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOSTLY SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE,
AND ONLY ABOUT 0.10 INCHES OR LOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR IN LUZERNE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER SOUTHWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND SETTLE THERE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS SETUP
BRINGS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, ADVECTING DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. BY LATER THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PHASES
TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO DEVELOP A 500MB LOW OVER
VIRGINIA, BUT AGAIN OUR AREA REMAINS DRY AS RIDGING SHOULD HOLD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY, WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S EACH NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE INCREASES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE COMPLEX WEATHER
PATTERN SETTING UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND
MERGE WITH THE 500MB LOW DRIFTING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. 0Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP MOST IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WELL EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT SOME WRAPAROUND MOISTURE COULD
BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL TAKE A
MAJOR SHIFT IN THE TRACK TO IMPACT OUR AREA, AND APPEARS MORE OF
AN ISSUE FOR LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. THERE IS
POTENTIAL THAT HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
TRENDS IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS JUST IN CASE THE STORMS TRACK SHIFTS. AT
THIS TIME, THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES RANGE FROM MOSTLY SUNNY AND
DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY/SATURDAY...TO COOLER AND CLOUDY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR FAR EASTERN CATSKILL ZONES.
NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALSO BE BREEZY AND GUSTY, 8-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AVP EARLY THIS MORNING, NOT ANTICIPATING
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT FOG FOR
ELM EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS
CLOUD COVER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING IN COULD PREVENT FOG FROM
DEVELOPING. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP, THEN IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR; POTENTIAL FOR PATCHING
FOG AND IFR RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...ES/MPK
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