113
FXUS61 KBGM 301818
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
218 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS YATES,
SENECA, S CAYUGA AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES IN NY AND LUZERNE AND
LACKAWANNA COUNTIES IN PA AS THE GROWING SEASON IN THESE
COUNTIES STARTS ON MAY 1. MOST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
OUTSIDE OF LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND TWIN TIERS REGIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FROST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
2) A COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS STARTING IN
THE FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S 30S THRU SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED FROST/FREEZE
CHANCES IN OUR GROWING ZONES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST,
AND IF THE SHOWERS CAN HOLD TOGETHER, RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES, TWIN TIERS AND WYOMING
VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WSW. NW FLOW FROM THE INCOMING HIGH WILL PUSH
A COLD AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA, AND COMBINED WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE WYOMING VALLEY
TONIGHT, AND WITH FORECAST CONDITIONS SHOWING FROST POTENTIAL,
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR YATES, SENECA, S CAYUGA AND
ONONDAGA COUNTIES IN NY AND LACKAWANNA AND LUZERNE COUNTIES IN
PA. FROST WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OUTSIDE THESE COUNTIES AS WELL,
BUT THE GROWING SEASON DOES NOT START UNTIL MAY 11 FOR THE REST
OF OUR CWA. THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 11PM THIS
EVENING TO 9AM FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON
BAY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE WEEKEND. THE BROAD
TROUGH SITTING OVERHEAD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY, DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL TRACK TO THE EAST. THIS LOW WILL
BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 850MB TEMPS IN THE -3C TO
-4C RANGE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS.
LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN, WITH LOW TO
MID 30S EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST, WITH
WIDESPREAD TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AS WE SHOULD SEE RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. FROST ADVISORIES OR EVEN A FREEZE
WARNING MIGHT BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN MONDAY, PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 60S. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH THESE
WARM TEMPERATURES AS A STRONG TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME LINGERING MVFR/FUEL ALT CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT SOME WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS THAT COULD IMPACT ELM AND AVP THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL THOUGH CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. IF A SHOWER
WERE TO MOVE OVER ONE OF THESE TERMINALS, BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY MAY BE POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS. WINDS THEN BECOME
CALMER OVERNIGHT THOUGH WILL MAINLY BE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY... MAINLY VFR, BUT RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
PAZ044-047.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ015>018.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...BTL
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