394
FXUS61 KBGM 221834
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR DUE
TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF LULL IN WET WEATHER
WEDNESDAY, THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA AND BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AS WELL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY STABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS,
COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF A FORCING MECHANISM HAS ALLOWED FOR
THE AREA TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE FOR NOW. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST, PASSING JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY. AS IT SHIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER, IT
WILL DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. LATEST
TRENDS HAVE THIS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN THE MORNING, WHICH
KEEPS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON (GREATEST CHANCE IN
CENTRAL NY), BUT COVERAGE OF THESE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
BY MONDAY, THE 500MB CLOSED LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS COMBINED
WITH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +6C TO +10C AND A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE, ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE TUESDAY, THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY BEFORE DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY WITH THE UPPER
LOW OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THEN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A SIMILAR
PATTERN TO THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY SET BACK UP WITH A
POTENTIAL LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST THAT WOULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW THESE FEATURES
APPEAR TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LOOK TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOWERING CLOUD BASES AND CIGS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
EVENING, WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS.
IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES. THESE COULD BRING OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/DK
AVIATION...KL
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