029
FXUS61 KBGM 211929
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
229 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR OTSEGO COUNTY. WINTER STORM WATCHES
UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOR LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA, SOUTHERN WAYNE, PIKE,
AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES. SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SUNDAY'S SYSTEM WERE
UPDATED WITH A SLIGHT MORE NORTHERN EXTENT. TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED ON SUNDAY. WINDS AND GUSTS WERE INCREASED DURING THE STORM
SO BLOWING SNOW WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BEFORE
WINTER STORM. FLOOD WATCHES ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR STEUBEN AND
TOMPKINS UNTIL THIS EVENING.
2) A NOR'EAST WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVES UP
THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE
REGION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF CNY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
3) ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
UP TO NEAR NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK WAVE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION AND NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ARE SUPPORTING SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FLURRIES AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT NORTH AND FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT, SO THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END LATE THIS EVENING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED BUT WITH SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS ON UNTREATED SURFACES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IN
STEUBEN AND TOMPKINS COUNTY. RECENT UPDATES FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS
HAVE MENTIONED SOME MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN OPEN FIELDS BUT
FORTUNATELY, NO RESIDENTIAL OR BUSINESS PROPERTIES ARE. STILL, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE SITUATIONS FOR ANY CHANGES THAT MAY
REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THESE WATCHES THAT ARE SET TO EXPIRE LATER
THIS EVENING OR UPGRADE TO WARNINGS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE NOR'EASTER THAT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AS IT MOVES OFF LAND AND
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN, A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEAKENS. MOISTURE
FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COASTAL LOW. A FEW AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE MID 30S COULD SEE RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN BRIEFLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH TO
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST AND CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. THE MERGER OF THESE TWO LOWS MAY CREATE A NARROW AXIS OF
HEAVIER SNOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL NY LATE SUNDAY. WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING AS FAR BACK AS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN BLOWING SNOW. GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SNOW GRADUALLY ENDS WEST TO EAST AS THE MOVES ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME FGEN BANDING MONDAY SUGGESTING
THAT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO OBSERVE THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES OF THE EVENT IF SNOW LINGERS LONG ENOUGH AS
SNOW ENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM, ANOTHER WAVE DIPS SOUTH AND NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL ENHANCE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER
CENTRAL NY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THIS IS A CHALLENGING FORECAST EVEN BEING WITHIN 24 HOURS OF WHEN
THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL. MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BUT DO DIFFER ON
THE EXTENT OF SNOW. THIS THEN LEADS TO A WIDE RANGE OF SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE SHARP CUTOFF WILL BE. A BLEND OF
NBM AND WPC QPF WAS USED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WPC WAS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS FAR NORTH AS THE NBM AND EVEN ACCOUNTED FOR THAT EARLY
AXIS OF SNOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL NY AS THE TWO LOWS MERGE, THOUGH SOME
MANUAL EDITS WERE MADE TO THAT FEATURE TO LOWER TOTALS FOR NOW. WPC
SLRS WERE MORE REASONABLE COMPARED TO NBM. THE MILD, MOIST
CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP SLRS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15:1. AS A RESULT,
THERE WERE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SNOWFALL AND THE NORTHERN
EXTENT WAS INCREASED. DUE TO THIS, OTSEGO COUNTY WAS ADDED TO THE
WINTER STORM WATCH THOUGH SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE ON THE LOWER END OF
WARNING CRITERIA. THEN THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA AS THAT IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
THAT AT LEAST 6-7 INCHES WILL FALL. FURTHER NORTH, WE HANG ONTO
WATCHES FOR ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE AS THESE COULD END UP BEING
EITHER WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND NAM HAVE A WIDER QPF FOOTPRINT
COMPARED TO SOLUTIONS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES, THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR BLENDED GUIDANCE
AND DOES NOT LEAN IN THE DIRECTION OF ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION.
WITH THAT SAID, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE AGAIN, SO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE PATTERN REMAINS QUITE ACTIVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY JUST SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT FOR THERE TO BE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH TOTALS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THEN A LOW WILL PASS
JUST TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH MILDER AIR POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION WOULD INITIALLY BE RAIN BUT THEN WOULD BECOME
SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS SYSTEM, GUIDANCE HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY AND
STICKING AROUND INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A PERSISTENT DECK OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO BRING AT LEAST
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
TERMINALS (MAINLY KSYR, KITH, AND KBGM) AT IFR. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
BRIEF/SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
LIGHT SNOW FROM A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM/NOR'EASTER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE
STEADIEST/HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING, IFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AROUND THE SAME
TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR KAVP AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL
GET, SO LOWER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS.
MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-043.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ044-047-048-072.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ022-025.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ046-057.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ062.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...BJG
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