007
FXUS61 KBGM 070003
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
703 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE WAS ADDED INTO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT; ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS.
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A COMBINATION
OF EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND A STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THE BIGGEST
TEMPERATURE CHANGES WERE FROM I-81 ON EAST. GIVEN THE STABLE
LAYER IN PLACE, THUNDER CHANCES WERE ALSO REDUCED ACROSS CNY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TOMORROW,
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP AND RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, MAINLY
WEST OF I-81.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WARM WEATHER, COMBINED
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL BRING AN INCREASING RISK
FOR SOME FLOODING, PERHAPS INCLUDING ISOLATED ICE JAMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE TRAPPING IN MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE
COMBINED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO SPOTTY DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE LOWERED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81
RESULTING IN A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
THE CATSKILLS TO THE LOW TO MID 40S FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE
FINGER LAKES.
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AND A WARM FRONT
STRUGGLES TO PUSH NORTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS CNY, A BATTLE ZONE
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AREAS WEST OF I-81 LOOK TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER TO MID
60S (AND DEW POINTS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 50S),
WHILE A STRONG INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE, HOLDING TEMPERATURES
DOWN FARTHER EAST IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. WHILE NAM MODEL
SOUNDINGS KEEP THE INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA, GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION
WEAKENING WEST OF I-81, ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND THE FINGER LAKES
TOWARD SYRACUSE METRO WHICH CAN ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE.
BY THE EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE AREA
FROM THE WEST BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS RISE TO AROUND 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES, SO SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOTED, WITH 500 - 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH
50-60KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR BUT LAPSE RATES LOOK PRETTY POOR
UNTIL THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER ON.
IF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION CAN MIX OUT LIKE THE GFS SHOWS, THEN
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, MAINLY WEST OF I-81 AND POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER, THE GREATER RISK FOR ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE WEST OF OUR REGION, ACROSS WESTERN
NY AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT THERE IS A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST INTO OUR
REGION TOMORROW EVENING. AS A RESULT, SPC HAS PARTS OF OUR
REGION WEST OF I-81 HIGHLIGHTED IN A "MARGINAL RISK" FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE THE 60S AREAWIDE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (WITH SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAKING A RUN AT
70 DEGREES TUESDAY FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTH INTO NE PA). DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING
CURRENT RIVER AND STREAM RISES THAT ARE EXPECTED FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LATER TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING TO RECEDE A
BIT BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT RISES LIKELY RETURNS
MIDWEEK WITH A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL NEED CLOSE
MONITORING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING,
INCLUDING POSSIBLE ISOLATED ICE JAMS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COMPLEX LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL MAINTAIN RESTRICTIVE FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CURRENTLY, A MIX OF IFR/LIFR (KBGM, KELM, KITH) AND MVFR (KSYR,
KRME, KAVP) PREVAILS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRENGTHENING INVERSION IS KEEPING CEILINGS SUPPRESSED, WITH
LOCALIZED FOG/MIST (BR) REDUCING VISIBILITIES PRIMARILY AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINALS AND EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT HEADING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN MUCH OF THE TIME AT
BGM AND AVP. ITH AND ELM WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE LOWER
STRATUS CLOUD DECK BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND COULD
OCCASIONALLY SCATTER OUT OR LIFT TO VFR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AND UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. SYR HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO BREAK
OUT INTO VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, WITH JUST SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 4-6K FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. RME WILL LIKELY REMAIN
MVFR/MVFR FUEL ALTERNATE ALL DAY SATURDAY.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING SHIFTS
TO LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS). A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ)
WILL DEVELOP AT ~2KFT, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
35-45 KTS. THIS WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE GUSTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AFTER 07Z-10Z, WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY AT KSYR AND KITH.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT...CIGS COULD DROP LOWER AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN EXPECTED WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK/MPK
AVIATION...DJN/MJM
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