840  
FXUS61 KBGM 242337  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
737 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH  
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY MORNING. A  
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST  
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. EXPECT CHANCES  
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ALMOST EVERY DAY. A BETTER  
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE THURSDAY  
OR FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
730 PM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK AND JUST MADE  
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST METSAT AND  
OBSERVATIONS.  
 
330 PM UPDATE...  
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE NEXT ROUND  
OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND MAYBE A WEAK THUNDERSTORM LATE  
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT MEMORIAL DAY  
AFTERNOON...AND THE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ON  
MONDAY.  
 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION ON TOP  
OF A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN MAINE  
COAST INTO ERN PA. THIS IS CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA  
WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. AIR MASS IS A BIT  
MORE HUMID THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO.  
 
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE NEXT  
SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE W/NW. AS THIS WEAK TROUGH FILLS IN  
FROM THE WEST, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. EARLY  
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE BACK INTO THE 50S BEFORE  
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S MEMORIAL DAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL NY  
WITH A BATCH OF SCATTERED MORNING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE MAY ALSO  
BE A FEW EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. DEW  
POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY  
TO TRIGGER A FEW STORMS. LATEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS  
INDICATING THAT THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE NOON,  
BUT THEN WE COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE FINGER LAKES  
IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IS APPEARS IT WILL BE RATHER  
ISOLATED, BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT GIVEN THE AMT OF INSTABILITY  
THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE GENERATED OVER PORTIONS OF WRN NY.  
MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT 1000-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND  
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT NEARLY ZERO SHEAR  
AND ALSO NO FORCING MECHANISM TO CENTER AROUND.  
 
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES NEAR ZERO, AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO  
MID 60S, AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
330 PM UPDATE...  
 
NO REAL CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK. THE FORECAST WILL  
BE DOMINATED BY THE APEX OF THE RIDGE MOVING OVER EASTERN NY AND PA,  
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS TUESDAY LEADING TO OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE  
WEEK. TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA, WHILE THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER  
80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN  
THE 80S AND EVEN NEAR THE 90F ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS THE  
RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT MORE OFFSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY, SLIGHT HEIGHT  
FALLS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COME IN JUST A COUPLE DEGREES  
COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HELP TO KEEP  
TEMPERATURES MILD EACH NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER  
60S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY  
WITH RIDGING AND A CAPPING INVERSION HELPING TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.  
HOWEVER, SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, GENERALLY FROM THE  
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND THE WESTERN  
MOHAWK VALLEY. WITH COMPARATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS  
NORTHEAST PA, THE POCONOS, AND CATSKILLS, IT SHOULD BE MORE OF A  
STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT FROM UNDER THE CAP.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
330 PM UPDATE...  
 
AS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY WITH A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS  
IN ITS WAKE, CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL  
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL INCREASE  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA,  
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE  
TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT NOT ENOUGH SHEAR TO  
CAUSE ANY CONCERNS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES IN THE  
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 60S  
OVERNIGHT, THEN WILL COME IN A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY. SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES IN WILL  
BRING ABOUT DRY, QUIET, AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.  
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER  
50S FRIDAY NIGHT, PEAKING IN THE 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT  
AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS TO AT LEAST SYR, RME, AND ITH. LESS  
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AT ELM AND BGM, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE  
A SHOWER MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER 15Z, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HOWEVER  
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT ANY SITES AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
FOR AVP, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT MVFR CEILINGS PUSH IN  
FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS MAY ADVECT FAR ENOUGH  
NORTHWARD TO AFFECT BGM AND ELM AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.  
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR  
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BJT  
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK  
SHORT TERM...HLC  
LONG TERM...HLC  
AVIATION...MPK  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NY Page
The Nexlab PA Page Main Text Page