230
FXUS61 KBGM 020602
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
202 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO BE UNHEALTHY AND DANGEROUS IN
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
2) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE A BIT FURTHER
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY
DECENT CAP FORMING TODAY THAT LASTS INTO THE EVENING. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUMPED INTO THE REGION AS WELL ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS ARE MODELED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY. MODELED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES STILL INDICATE A FEW PLACES MAY REACH 100 DEGREES
TODAY AND GET WELL INTO THE 90'S FRIDAY. COUPLED WITH THE
HUMIDITY HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 100-110 DEGREES
TODAY AND FROM 95-105 ON FRIDAY. THE VERY HOT READINGS MAY
EXTEND INTO SATURDAY FOR NEPA AS WELL BUT A HIGHER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINITY IS PRESENT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TODAY, MID-LEVEL CAPPING LOOKS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL
GIVEN THE PAST FEW DAYS MAINTAINED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, HIGHEST
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. A COLD FRONT SHOULD START TO SAG CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO SET OFF
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELED CAPE OF 2,000-3,000 J/KG
AND MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS LEADS TO A POTENTIALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OUT AND WEAKEN SOME OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AROUND TO BE LIFTED THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PRESENT. ANY THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY TREND CONSIDERABLY COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK
GIVEN MODELING IS INDICATING SOMEWHAT OF AN EASTERLY FLOW NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AT RME AND ITH, LIGHT WINDS AND
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SHALLOW INVERSION, SOME PATCHY FOG OR MIST
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS DURING
THIS TAF PERIOD. EXPECT INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT
TIMES POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER 5 KTS
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET INTO TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LOWER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE CAPPING IN PLACE.RME AND SYR
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY POP UP CONVECTION, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK:
LATE TONIGHT: MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR, BUT INTERMITTENT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CLIMATE
CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS:
7/2: BGM - 92 (1966), SYR - 96 (1963), AVP - 98 (1966)
FORECASTS FOR 7/2 ARE AT OR JUST OVER THE DAILY RECORDS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...DK/MJM
CLIMATE...MDP
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