919  
FXUS61 KBGM 110753  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
353 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. WESTERLY  
FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COOLER TREND  
SETTLES IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM  
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES AROUND WELL INTO THE  
COMING WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
345 AM UPDATE...  
 
COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING ACROSS  
MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH MOSTLY  
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS INTO THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST. THIS ADVECTS WARMER AIR  
INTO THE REGION ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID  
60S. CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CARRY THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. WINDS THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AGAIN  
WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER  
NORTH CENTRAL NY, NORTHEAST PA WILL REMAIN CLEAR. REGARDLESS  
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER  
40S TO LOW 50S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF  
OUR REGION WITH A TOUCH OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER  
NORTHERN ONEIDA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE  
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORT WAVE, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN  
SOON AFTER SUNRISE.  
 
BEHIND THIS FEATURE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ON SATURDAY, WITH  
SKIES CLEARING OUT AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE SLIGHTLY COOLER  
WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO  
LOW 60S ACROSS CENTRAL NY, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS  
NORTHEAST PA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
345 AM UPDATE...  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH  
INCREASING MERIDIONAL AMPLITUDE AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTHEAST.  
A SURFACE LOW WILL GATHER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH WARM  
FRONTOGENESIS TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTHERN PA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.  
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE LATE NIGHT  
HOURS WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE  
IS SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE AND  
PROBABILISTIC QPF ARE INDICATING HIGHER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE  
PRECIPITATION BY 12Z SUNDAY. NBM GUIDANCE SEEMS A TOUCH LOW,  
PROBABLY DUE TO THE SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN FORCING FEATURES VERSUS  
THE ACTUAL EVENT OCCURRING. AS A RESULT, THIS SEEMS LIKE A  
REASONABLE OPPORTUNITY TO TREND UP RAIN CHANCES OVER GUIDANCE,  
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS INTO CNY. PRECIPITATION  
MAY TEND TO BE MORE SHOWERY ACROSS NEPA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE  
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND  
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT  
SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL  
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME MARGINAL FOR SOME WET SNOW  
FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN  
CATSKILLS, LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW DUE TO  
TIMING AND MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO  
UPPER 40S SOUTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE MARITIMES  
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE RELEASING LATER IN THE WEEK.  
ANOMALOUSLY COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE CONTINOUSLY DRAWN ACROSS THE  
AREA FOR A FEW DAYS OF FALL-LIKE CHILL. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND RAIN  
SHOWERS WILL RESPOND TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PROBABLY WELL  
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE RIDGING TAKES OVER ON THURSDAY WITH IMPROVING  
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSING BACK IN ON NORMAL. WINTER  
FORECAST PARAMETERS DO SUGGEST THAT THE COLD AIR MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH  
TO SUPPORT WET SNOW FLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
CATSKILLS, LEATHERSTOCKING REGION AND THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL FROM  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS MONDAY IN  
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE  
LOW TO MID 30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTED OUT OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH VFR  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS.  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,  
FAVORING NW AT TIMES. SOME VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED, WITH IFR  
POSSIBLE AT ELM AND AT RME IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY, WITH  
LIGHT NW WINDS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE HINTS AT LLWS TOMORROW NIGHT  
AT NY SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW-LEVEL WIND  
SHEAR POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT  
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-  
044-047-048-072.  
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-022>025-  
036-037-044>046-055>057-062.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...ES  
NEAR TERM...ES  
SHORT TERM...JAB  
LONG TERM...JAB  
AVIATION...ES  
 
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