386
FXUS61 KBGM 090727
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
327 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE INTENSITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS LINGER
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A WELCOMED EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
245 AM UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS NEPA INTO THE CATSKILLS. SOME
MORE STEADY AND MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN IS DEVELOPING SW OF THE
WYOMING VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. FLOODING ISSUES HAVE NOT POPPED UP YET, BUT WITH
VERY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE RAIN
COULD CAUSE CREEKS AND STEAMS TO START TO SEE ISSUES.
THE UPPER LEVEL POSITIVELY TILTED IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF OVER
WESTERN PA IN A FEW HOURS, TILTING MORE NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.
THIS WILL HELP GET THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY. VORTICITY
ADVECTION FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP DRIVE A WIDE SWATH OF
RAIN, WITH MODERATE RAIN EAST OF I-81 THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS SPREAD WESTWARD, AND WE SHOULD GET SHOWER
ENHANCEMENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE A NICE
DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. THIS SHOULD PUT STEADY
RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHTER SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL KICK OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER CUTOFF SPEEDS UP ITS EASTWARD MOTION. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER CNY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, WITH SKIES CLEARING BY
THE AFTERNOON.
ALL TOLD, 1.25-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL EAST OF
I-81 TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE I-81 CORRIDOR SHOULD
SEE 0.75-1.25 INCHES OF RAIN AND AREAS WEST OF HERE, WHERE A
TIGHT GRADIENT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW
SHOULD SEE 0.1-0.75 INCHES OF RAIN. THE RAINFALL RATES AND
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE TOO LOW TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
ISSUES. WE DO HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES,
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF NEPA, AND WHILE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE VERY WET SOILS,
RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE COOL THANKS TO CLOUDS, RAIN AND
MOSTLY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE FINGER LAKES, WITH MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE REST OF NY. THE WYOMING VALLEY INTO THE CATSKILLS
WILL BE WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
LOW TRACK AND WILL BE INFLUENCED MORE BY WARMER AIR BEING BLOWN
IN FROM THE ESE. TEMPS HERE WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
325 AM UPDATE:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
OCCUR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, AND PERHAPS SOME LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOTHER'S DAY, WHICH WILL
BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH STILL A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS
IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN. THEN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
325 AM UPDATE:
FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER MONDAY AND LIKELY MOST OF TUESDAY
AS WELL. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA, WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED FOR
HIGHS ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S, WITH PERHAPS SOME MORE 80 DEGREE
READINGS BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR RME. IT WILL BE
A MESSY FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP
THE COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST TERMINALS, BUT
GETTING THE TIMING DOWN IS A LITTLE TRICKY. IFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE TIED TO ONSET OF STEADY RAIN SHOWERS, WHICH
PUTS AVP AND BGM AS THE FIRST TERMINALS BE IMPACTED. WIND
DIRECTION(NE) AT AVP IS FAVORABLE FOR IFR DEVELOPMENT SO
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR ONCE THE RAIN
STARTS. BGM IS CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE IFR CEILINGS, SO ANY
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADDED SHOULD GET CEILINGS TO FALL. ITH
SHOULD SEE IFR CEILINGS NOT TO LONG AFTER BGM, FOLLOWED BY SYR
AND RME. THESE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW BRINGS RAIN AND COOL TEMPS TO THE
REGION.
ELM HAS BEEN THE HARDEST TO FORECAST FOR AS GUIDANCE WANTS TO
BRING IFR CEILINGS HERE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ISSUE IS ELM WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD PRODUCED BY THE LOW, AND RAIN MIGHT BE MORE SHOWERY
THAN PERSISTENT OVER THIS AREA. ALSO, THE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE NNW, WHICH IS A POOR WIND DIRECTION TO GET IFR CEILINGS AS
THE CLOUDS DOWNSLOPE INTO ELM FROM A RIDGE NW OF THE AIRPORT,
WHICH USUALLY KEEPS CEILINGS FUEL ALT. BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS,
IFR CONDITIONS WERE KEPT OUT OF THE TAF THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS THOUGH
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE.
SATURDAY...A CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PAZ039-040-044-047-
048-072.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ045-046-055>057-
062.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...BJG/MPK
LONG TERM...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...JTC
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