911
FXUS61 KBGM 081030
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
630 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DEWPOINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE LOWERED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE ADJUSTMENTS ARE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT
WILL MIX DOWN DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
2) A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH WITH
SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, AND TEMPORARILY DIP TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY, BUT MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WITH A STRONG, DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA, DRY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO FALL UNDER STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LOW HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH DRY
AIR EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST AREAS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE HIGH 40S/LOW 50S TODAY.
AS THE CENTER HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST, THE AREA GETS UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALLOWING FOR THE WARMING TREND TO START.
THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S, AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, TEMPERATURES
INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO HIGH 60S FOR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION
FRIDAY; WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S., THIS WILL BLOCK MOISTURE-RICH AIR COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL TRAIL FROM A DISTANT LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIME PROVINCES, AND WILL BE SHALLOW IN NATURE. WHILE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL NY, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA. FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE FIGURED TO
BE ONLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO VERY LITTLE
SOUTHEAST.
THE FAIRLY WEAK FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY DIP TEMPERATURES FROM
MAINLY 60S-NEAR 70 FRIDAY TO UPPER 40S-UPPER 50S SATURDAY.
SIGNIFICANT RIDGING WITH A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL THEN BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER; 60S SUNDAY AND WIDESPREAD
70S NEXT MONDAY-TUESDAY. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW
SPOTS APPROACH 80 DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. CALM WINDS TONIGHT BECOME ACTIVE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH
A MOSTLY SSE ORIENTATION BETWEEN 5-8KTS. WINDS REMAIN ACTIVE
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH GUSTS UP TO
18KTS IN THE FINGER LAKES. LLWS OF 30-35KTS UP TO FL020 WILL BE
PRESENT AFTER 06Z AT ELM/SYR/RME.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A FRONT WILL DIP INTO
THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY THE NY TERMINALS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...JTC
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