603  
FXUS61 KBGM 191428  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
1028 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AFTER A CHILLY DAWN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A SUNNY AND MUCH  
MILDER DAY. HOWEVER, SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL  
SEND TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE  
WEEKEND, INCLUDING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHERN  
TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
1030 AM UPDATE...NOT MUCH TO UPDATE THIS MORNING WITH SUNNY  
SKIES AND RISING TEMPERATURES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO  
THE TEMPS AND WINDS OTHERWISE GRIDS ARE GOOD AS IS.  
 
345 AM UPDATE...  
IT IS A QUICKLY-MOVING PATTERN, AND SO OUR BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE  
DAY OF RESPITE WILL SWITCH TO A SHOWERY COLD FRONT AS WE HEAD  
INTO SATURDAY.  
 
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING, THE GROWING SEASON HAS  
ENDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE WHICH  
ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING. FOR THOSE  
NEPA COUNTIES, IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT  
HAS PRODUCED THE WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S NOW BEING  
OBSERVED, SO THAT SHOULD DO IT FOR ALL FROST-FREEZE PRODUCTS  
UNTIL THE SPRING.  
 
DESPITE THE COLD START, THE SURFACE HIGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF  
SHUNTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, AND RETURN FLOW JUST ABOVE  
THE SURFACE AS WELL AS RIDGING ALOFT IS RESULTING IN STRONG WARM  
AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL BEGIN TO BE REALIZED NOT LONG AFTER  
DAWN, AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HELPS TO MIX DOWN THE WARM AIR. THE  
RAPID BOUNCE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER  
50S-LOWER 60S. THE ADDITIONAL HELP OF DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WIND  
COULD EVEN BRING A FEW SPOTS INTO THE MID 60S AT LOWER  
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND PERHAPS SYRACUSE.  
 
A TRIO OF INBOUND WAVES, HOWEVER, WILL ABRUPTLY CHANGE THINGS.  
THE FIRST ONE WILL ZIP THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL SERVE TO  
MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE AND EVEN CAUSE A QUICK BATCH OF LIGHT  
RAIN SHOWERS TO PASS BY, WITH POCONOS-CATSKILLS HAVING THE  
BETTER CHANCE FOR THAT. RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT HOWEVER  
WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, WHERE IT OCCURS. ANY SHOWERS  
WILL FIRST HAVE TO OVERCOME A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE  
LOWER LEVELS; IT WILL BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS WHERE THE RADAR  
BARK IS WORSE THAN THE BITE SINCE MUCH OF IT WILL BE VIRGA,  
ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF  
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WIND WHICH ACTUALLY COULD BE  
SOMEWHAT STIFF IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY, TEMPERATURES  
WILL ONLY DROP TO MID-UPPER 40S FOR LOWS.  
 
THE SECOND AND THIRD WAVES WILL TAKE THE FORM OF A PRE-FRONTAL  
TROUGH AND THEN THE COLD FRONT ITSELF, BOTH OF WHICH WILL PASS  
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. TRUTH BE TOLD, IN THE  
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT A FOURTH WAVE - THE MAIN SHARP DIGGING  
UPPER TROUGH AXIS - IS SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE ON  
THAT IS DISCUSSED BELOW. BUT FOR SATURDAY ITSELF, TEMPERATURES  
INITIALLY REACH LOWER- MID 50S FOR CENTRAL NY AND MID-UPPER 50S  
FOR NORTHEAST PA, BEFORE THE START OF COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS  
TO TAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER AIR  
ALOFT OUTPACING LOWER LEVELS, LAPSE RATES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY  
STEEPEN WHICH WILL ALLOW MIXING DOWN OF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE  
WEST, VEERING NORTHWEST LATE. PEAK GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH CAN BE  
ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS  
OF ABOUT ONE TO TWO TENTHS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, THOUGH  
SOME SPOTS THAT END UP BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS MAY ONLY GET  
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
4 AM UPDATE... ANOTHER EARLY TASTE OF WINTER THIS PERIOD.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, A FAIRLY STRONG  
AND DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE  
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS  
FEATURE, SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL LINGER, WITH  
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALSO CONTINUING IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE  
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS  
EXPECTED TO VEER INTO A 310-330 TRAJECTORY WITH TIME, THIS WILL  
SET THE STAGE FOR AN EARLY SEASON LAKE-EFFECT EVENT WITH FINGER  
LAKES ENHANCEMENT. EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY  
STILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT AS TEMPERATURES  
RAPIDLY COOL OVERNIGHT, SNOW WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT  
PRECIPITATION TYPE AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDOW OF  
OPPORTUNITY IS WIDE ENOUGH FOR SOME 1-3" SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN ONONDAGA, SOUTHERN CAYUGA, CORTLAND,  
TOMPKINS, AND NORTHERN TIOGA COUNTIES, PARTICULARLY DOWNWIND OF  
OWASCO AND CAYUGA LAKES.  
 
ELSEWHERE, SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN  
NATURE, BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION,  
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK  
INTO MORE OF A WESTERLY ORIENTATION, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALSO  
APPROACHING. AS A RESULT, SNOW SHOWERS OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW  
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN/DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. STILL  
THOUGH, AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR OVER  
PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.  
 
LOWS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S-MID  
30S RANGE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NOT RECOVERING MUCH, ONLY  
REACHING THE MID 30S-LOWER 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
415 AM UPDATE... NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST NEXT  
WEEK, AS THE MODELS STILL DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE  
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY, WITH THIS TROUGH  
HAVING A TENDENCY TO LIFT OUT LATER IN THE WEEK.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MILDER AGAIN, WITH A SW FLOW DEVELOPING  
ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MONDAY  
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY, BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
FORESEEN TUESDAY, AS THE NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES IN.  
 
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER  
AIR IS EXPECTED, WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. BY  
THURSDAY, AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, HEIGHT RISES AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD  
INITIATE ANOTHER TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES, WITH DRY  
WEATHER ANTICIPATED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
12Z UPDATE...  
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, COURTESY OF PASSING  
HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR  
TO CONTEND WITH EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSYR-KELM-KITH-KRME, FROM  
A WESTERLY JET OF 30-40 KNOTS NOT FAR OFF THE GROUND, UNTIL  
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE  
TO 8-12 KNOTS OUT OF THE SW WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LLWS WILL  
ACTUALLY RETURN THIS EVENING KAVP-KRME AND POSSIBLY OTHER  
TERMINALS. COLD FRONT WILL THEN BE APPROACHING 06Z-12Z  
SATURDAY, WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS  
IN MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY NY TERMINALS. KITH IN  
PARTICULAR, AND KBGM AT TIMES, PRONE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MDP  
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP  
SHORT TERM...MLJ  
LONG TERM...MLJ  
AVIATION...MDP  
 
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