420
FXUS61 KBGM 202047
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
347 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2019
SYNOPSIS
A FRIGID NORTHWEST WIND WILL CAUSE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
THROUGH MONDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND SYRACUSE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED. WIND CHILL WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK AND FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THIS
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS IN THE
RANGE OF 20 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
STILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MONDAY AROUND 315
DEGREES. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION INCLUDING THE SYRACUSE AREA. TOTAL
SNOWFALL THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO DRY AIRMASS
AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHT. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY WILL
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW MOST
PLACES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE NEXT WINTER
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX AND THEN BACK TO SNOW.
ON TUESDAY MORNING, THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BE SHIFTING THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET ON TUESDAY AND LIKELY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.
THE PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY
PHASES WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS ERN CANADA SLIDES FROM MANITOBA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT SNOW ON
THE FRONT EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO INTO WED
MORNING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. THERE WILL BE
AN ELEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM SIMILAR TO THE MOST RECENT WINTER
STORM...ALTHOUGH MUCH LESS INTENSE...WHERE A NOSE OF MUCH WARMER AIR
WILL ADVECT NORTH AHEAD OF AND INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THIS WILL
CAUSE A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX WED MORNING, AND THEN
EVENTUALLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY RAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION OF ANOTHER BRANCH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SW...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT EVEN MORE
QPF...UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PUT A NAME ON DUE TO MODEL
GUIDANCE THERMAL PROFILES BEING ALL OVER THE MAP.
THE CHANNEL OF WARM MOIST AIR EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING IN
FROM THE SW WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINTRY MIX...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN COUNTIES...TO PERSIST A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR SLOWLY LATE WED NIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THERE STILL MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ONGOING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM ADVECTS IN. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE QUITE A BIT OF
AGREEMENT AND RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH REGARD TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
AIR MASS MOVING IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IT IS STILL TO EARLY
TO SAY HOW COLD WE WILL GET FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT IT DOES
APPEAR THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME ON AND OFF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO.
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW.
OVERNIGHT, MVFR/ALTERNATE REQUIRED RESTRICTIONS IN GENERAL WITH
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. AT KSYR, IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO MORE PERSISTENT LAKE
SNOW SHOWERS. AT KELM/KAVP, GENERALLY LOW VFR OVERNIGHT.
ON MONDAY, MAINLY LOW VFR ALTHOUGH KSYR/KITH/KBGM WILL SEE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS
DECREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THEN BACK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN WITH
SNOW OR WINTRY MIX AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...RRM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page