101
FXUS61 KBGM 080553
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
153 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATER
TODAY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION OF CENTRAL NY. TIMING OF THE INCOMING RAIN
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TODAY, TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
2) SUNDAY, AND SUNDAY NIGHT HAS TRENDED WETTER WITH THE REMNANT
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TODAY WILL FEATURE A BREEZY AND COOLER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN AROUND +4-5C THROUGH THE DAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AS SOME MODEST INSTABILITY FORMS FROM
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TWIN TIERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY NORTH TO MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH INTO NE
PA. THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, BETWEEN 8-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE WIND DIMINISH TONIGHT, BUT
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S. HEADING INTO FRIDAY, THERE COULD BE ISOLATED
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS UP NORTH IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, BRINGING DRIER AND
MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE, A LITTLE BREEZY
STILL. MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
IT WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH FROST UP NORTH WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED. LOWS RANGE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE, SUNNY WEATHER, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-60S TO LOW 70S EXPECTED. OVERALL, A
FANTASTIC START TO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS AS IT HEADS NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN A
TOUCH, BUT SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS FASTER BRINGING THE
RAIN IN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY; WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE EXITING EAST BY
MONDAY MORNING. EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. PROBABILITIES
FOR 1"+ OF RAINFALL ARE AROUND 25-40% ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME, WITH A 10% CHANCE FOR 2" OF RAIN NEAR THE WYOMING VALLEY
REGION OF NE PA (LOWER ELSEWHERE). THE MEAN 24 HOUR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 0.75 TO 1" FROM THE TWIN TIERS SOUTH INTO NE
PA, WITH AROUND 0.6 INCHES FURTHER NORTH TOWARD I-90.
PWATS RISE UP TO AT LEAST 1.50 INCHES, BUT SOME EVEN DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BE NEARBY. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BARE
WATCHING AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN MILD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES ENTERING THE FORECAST. A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING MUCH COOLER, FALL AIR TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FIRST TWO HOURS
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AT RME AND SYR AND THIS COULD BRIEFLY
DROP DOWN VISIBILITY TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN.
LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED AT ELM, BGM AND AVP UNTIL ABOUT SUNRISE OR
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/MJM
AVIATION...KL/MPK
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