584
FXUS61 KBGM 302255
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
655 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING CLEARING SKIES, LOW HUMIDITY AND REFRESHINGLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
215 PM UPDATE
HEAVY RAIN TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT - AN MCS THAT DEVELOPED
LAST NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGRESSING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN MCV THIS MORNING. THIS MCV WILL LIKELY
TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW,
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES, UP BETWEEN 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM NEPA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND CATSKILLS SHOW A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET FORMING WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE FROM ROUGHLY
850 MB AND ABOVE. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS GET WELL OVER 10K FEET AND
EVEN GET NEAR 14K FEET SO THERE WILL BE EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESS WITH THE LLJ FEEDING DEEP MOISTURE INTO A REGION OF LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HELPING REALIZE THAT TALL SKINNY CAPE ABOVE
850 MB. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A REGION OF VERY HEAVY RAIN
WITH HREF PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN SHOWING A BULLSEYE OF 5 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SOMEWHERE IN
NEPA OR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THIS REGION OF HEAVY RAIN, IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE
THIS AREA WILL BE EVEN JUST A LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS OUT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED TO COVER THE AREAS THAT COULD
EXPERIENCE THE HEAVY RAIN.
REST OF PERIOD - THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
BE MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN
LOWER THAN FORECAST ACROSS NY THOUGH NEPA STILL HAS HAD A GOOD
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE UP AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE BETTER SHEAR IS UP IN NY BUT THE SHEAR IN
NEPA WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 30 TO 40
KNOTS. GIVEN THAT THERE IS ALREADY A FEW STORMS FIRING OFF OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WYOMING COUNTY AND POCONOS, THIS COULD
CAUSE RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW TO STABILIZE MUCH OF THE WYOMING
VALLEY BY THE TIME THE SHEAR INCREASES SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW WILL HAVE A SURFACE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING THAT WILL STABILIZE THE
SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SO OUTSIDE OF FAR SOUTHERN POCONOS
THE SEVERE RISK IS LOW.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
215 PM UPDATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING NICE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVING IN AND NW FLOW OUT OF CANADA BRINGS IN A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS. DEW POINTS LIKELY FALL BELOW 60 DEGREES AND
MOSTLY STAY BELOW 60 DEGREES. FRIDAY WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EARLY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE MCV CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST BUT ONCE THE CLOUDS ARE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON, THE
WEEKEND IS LOOKING SUNNY AND CLEAR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
215 PM UPDATE
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE EAST
KEEPING THE DRY AND COOL NW FLOW GOING. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK THE TROUGH BEGINS TO RETROGRADE
WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THE
TROUGH IS BACK TO THE WEST OF US, SW FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN
WITH HEAT AND MOISTURE RETURNING. NOW THAT THE DAYS ARE GETTING
SHORTER AND SUN ANGLE LOWER, THE HEAT THAT RETURNS LOOKS TO BE
MORE MID AND UPPER 80S RATHER THAN LOW TO MID 90S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY AROUND
MIDDAY WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR AND THEN TO FUEL ALT. SOME
GUIDANCE TAKES CEILINGS TO IFR, BUT HREF PROBABILITIES FOR
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT ARE LOW. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DROP
WITH STEADY RAIN EXPECTED ALL AFTERNOON FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
TERMINALS. MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AVP, LOWERING
VISIBILITIES EVEN MORE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
AVP AS WELL, SO A PROB30 GROUP WAS ADDED FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS.
SYR AND RME ARE ON THE EDGE OF SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS SO
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND HOW LOW CEILINGS MAY
FALL AT THOSE TWO TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME
GUSTS LESS THAN 15 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BGM AND ELM.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS,
CAN RESULT IN OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY FOR ITH, ELM, BGM
AND AVP.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ023>025-055-
056-062.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ062.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MJM
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BTL
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