984
FXUS61 KBGM 181136
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
636 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL LEAD TO A LARGELY DRY DAY TODAY
WITH LESS WIND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT, WHICH CAN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHEAST PA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
320 AM UPDATE:
THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER AND FLURRY ACTIVITY THAT HAS
BEEN LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF CNY, MAINLY FROM AROUND SYR
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MADISON COUNTY AND INTO NORTHERN OTSEGO
COUNTY HAS DIMINISHED. AS A RESULT, POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO NO
HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING, AND
ALL ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN REMOVED. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA HAS
FINALLY RELAXED, LEADING TO LESS WIND FOR TODAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNY NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY LIFT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY, BRINGING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
MID 40S.
A QUICK-MOVING, WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING BY TO
OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO REACH NE PA, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL ACTUALLY GO, BUT DID REMOVE ANY
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER AS THERE
IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THAT THE SOUTHERN TIER REMAINS DRY. THIS DISTURBANCE
CAN BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO NE PA WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.
HOWEVER, THE WYOMING VALLEY COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A LITTLE
RAIN OR SEE SOME POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO FREEZING. ONE THING OF NOTE,
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN NBM EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH THE NBM90TH PERCENTILE DOING A MUCH BETTER
JOB. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY MAY BE
IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ALL RAIN, SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. FARTHER
TO THE NORTH ACROSS CNY, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. SOME SPOTS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NEAR THE TUG HILL COULD REACH THE UPPER TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THE
FLOW WILL START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ALOFT. ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, IT WILL BE
A NICER DAY OVERALL UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ON THURSDAY LEADING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CNY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL SURGE OF MILDER AIR. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THE
ONSET, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT, USHERING IN SOME COOLER AIR BRIEFLY ONCE AGAIN AND SOME
POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA, BUT SOME OF THE
ENSEMBLES DO STILL KEEP SOME DISTURBANCES NEARBY LEADING TO A
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO THIS WILL BE
MONITORED. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER FROM
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS
NEAR OR INTO THE LOW 50S BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
AVP AFTER 06Z. FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE MOISTURE FROM THE LOW CAN
PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE
IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY DURING
THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JTC
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