287
FXUS61 KBGM 291413
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1013 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED FOR SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES IN NEW YORK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY.
2) DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH RAIN RETURNS BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TRAINING OF SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SULLIVAN AND DELAWARE COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN AXIS OF RAIN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE
HUDSON VALLEY. BASED ON THE CAMS, THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THIS RAIN
WILL LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. EVEN IF THE RAIN WERE TO END HERE
SHORTLY, THERE ARE ONGOING HYDRO ISSUES THAT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
IMPROVE. FOR THIS REASON, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR SULLIVAN
AND DELAWARE COUNTIES UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE ENOUGH FOR US TO END
THE WARNINGS. ELSEWHERE, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. CLEARING, LIGHT WINDS, AND MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN LED TO
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH WINDS GRADUALLY PICKING UP BY DAYBREAK,
FOG SHOULD NOT LINGER AROUND MUCH PAST SUNRISE.
NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY, LEADING TO SHOWER COVERAGE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY MIDDAY. THERE WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT LIKELY
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. PWATS WILL GENERALLY BE 1.5
INCHES OR LESS. MODELS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS IN NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING SHOWERS,
RAIN WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ALSO
AREAS THAT RECEIVED LITTLE RAIN YESTERDAY. GIVEN THIS, THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE OTHER COUNTIES WAS CANCELLED. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND
60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGE RIDERS MAY TRY TO KICK OFF A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY, THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED.
CONDITIONS WILL TREND WARMER THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND AND ABOVE
80S ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S, SO IT MAY
FEEL A LITTLE MUGGY.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY AND IT DRIFTS EASTWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND THIS LOW NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, FLOW AROUND THESE
SYSTEMS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD LEADING TO SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN PASSES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
KEEPING RAIN AROUND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGE ON WHAT
HAPPENS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOLUTIONS LIKE THE ECMWF KEEP
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. OTHER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS HAVE A
TROUGH AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
DECK MAY COME UP A BIT LATER TODAY BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN
TONIGHT. GENERAL CEILINGS AROUND MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL
WITH POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.
SUNDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE LATER
IN THE DAY WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/BTL/KL
AVIATION...MWG
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