927
FXUS61 KBGM 062216
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
616 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES GIVEN CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A GENERALLY DRY FALL-LIKE PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
2) WARMING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM PROJECTED TO PASS THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDER LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS IN PLACE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT, WITH
PLENTIFUL FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY WILL STRUGGLE
WITH THE DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER SO CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION WERE REMOVED TO NOT BE IN THE GRIDS. IF A
SHOWER DOES POP UP, THEY SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTFUL AND MAINLY BE
LIGHT SPRINKLES. LABOR DAY IS LOOKING SIMILAR TO TODAY, EVEN A
LITTLE BIT DRIER SO THERE MAY NOT BE AS MANY CLOUDS TO FORM WITH
DAY TIME HEATING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE LEADING TO CLEAR,
CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN SOUTHERN
CANADA. THE FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO TREND WEAKER BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST. IT ALSO HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN AS WELL
WHICH COULD AT LEAST MEAN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE TRYING TO FORM A SECONDARY
LOW ALONG THE FRONT THAT PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHEAST WHICH
WOULD REALLY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PWATS ARE UP AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES SO THERE IS AN INCREASING
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IF THAT SECONDARY LOW DOES FORM. GIVEN THE
WEAKENING OF THE FRONT AND TIMING IS TRENDING TO BE EITHER
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY, THE SEVERE RISK IS
LESSENING. ONCE THE FRONT OR SECONDARY LOW IS THROUGH, WE WILL
BE BACK IN A SIMILAR PATTERN AS WE ARE IN NOW.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. TONIGHT, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
LEND TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
THIS WILL BRING THE VFR CONDITONS DOWN TO AT LEAST IFR VSBY, IF
NOT LOWER FOR MONDAY MORNING IN THE MORE FAVORABLE SPOTS. THIS
INCLUDES ELM & ITH, WITH POTENTIAL AT BGM AS WELL. THE REMAINDER
OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR, BUT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY TO MVFR CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
MONDAY, VFR CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER MORNING
FOG DISSIPATES. ANY FOG LINGERING AFTER SUNRISE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
AROUND 13Z. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARING THE AREA,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR; AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE EARLY EACH DAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...POTENTIAL COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH
WIND SHIFT AND SHOWERS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/MDP
AVIATION...ES/SJW
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