344
FXUS61 KBGM 011926
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
326 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE, MINIMAL
CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM OVERNIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DIVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
2) HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THE ONE CAVEAT IS A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY. THIS MAY KICK OFF A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL PA INTO WESTERN NY.
THIS FRONT IS DRIVING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS,
CLIMBING TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PUSH WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, KEEPING
OVERNIGHT LOWS 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL, ONLY BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRIDAY MORNING
AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, MOVING FROM
WNW TO ESE STARTING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE ESE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH CNY AND INTO NEPA BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS. THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY CURRENTLY SHOULD SEE ABOUT 0.1-0.25 INCHES, WITH
LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A DECENT
HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WITH LOW TO
MID 60S BY THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MEAN EARLY OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ACROSS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND N FINGER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE WEEK, BUT
A PESKY TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING
MAY KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WITH HOW THE
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE
JET STREAM LOOK TO PHASE TOGETHER SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST
COAST. CURRENT GUIDANCE SEES THE PHASING AND OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, WHICH WOULD LIMIT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA.
IF PHASING CAN OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF MONDAY MORNING, WE
COULD GET SOME HEAVIER RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WE WILL
MONITOR HOW THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS.
ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING THE FIRST
REAL TASTE OF FALL AS CANADIAN AIR CASCADES OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST OF CNY
AND LOW TO MID 60S IN NEPA. TUESDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MID
50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
INTO NEPA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD! MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER, WITH
MANY SPOTS FALLING TO FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING. MUCH OF THE
GROWING SEASON IN CNY HAS ENDED, BUT IF YOU STILL HAVE PLANTS
OUTSIDE OR VEGGIES THAT NEED TO BE HARVESTED, TAKE PROPER
ACTIONS THESE TWO NIGHTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK TO AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AFTER A WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH MIDDAY, A TEMPORARY
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH DEVELOPING RAIN AND
LOWERING CEILINGS AT LEAST FOR THE NY TERMINALS. KAVP WILL
EVENTUALLY HAVE RESTRICTIONS TOO BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY WAIT
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 35-40 KNOTS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT SLIPS THROUGH. THE FRONT
WILL BE SHALLOW IN NATURE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH IT,
CAUSING FUEL ALTERNATE REQUIRED TO IFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR AS
POST-FRONTAL WIND ALSO VEERS TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT...COLD FRONT FINISHES PASSING,
WITH SHOWERS ENDING AND INITIAL CEILING RESTRICTIONS SCATTERING
TO VFR. HOWEVER, VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST KELM AND
POSSIBLY OTHER TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH VALLEY FOG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KELM SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...MDP
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