573
FXUS61 KBGM 231909
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
309 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK BRINGING ROUNDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA SATURDAY. PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA
AS A COOL, CANADIAN AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 0 TO 2C STREAMS OVER THE WARMER GREAT LAKES, WHICH HAVE
WATER TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 13 TO 15C. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP SHIFT RAIN
SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR AND ACROSS MORE OF CNY AND THE TWIN
TIERS BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. WE'LL SEE
SOMETHING SIMILAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND THE FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY, SENDING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR INTO THE TWIN
TIERS AND CATSKILLS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. WITH A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW, IT WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS
CNY COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS TOMORROW RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S, WHILE MUCH OF NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS ARE IN THE LOW AND MID 50S. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE
LOW AND MID 30S FOR MOST FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT UPPER 20S TOWARD THE
TUG HILL, AND WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN TO AROUND -3
TO -4C, LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CAN MIX WITH AND EVEN CHANGE
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CNY AND NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY, BUT NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD. WITH WINDS STILL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
THE COOL AIR ALOFT, ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR CNY. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
LARGELY DRY DAY. A SHORTWAVE DOES DROP IN FROM THE NORTH, BUT
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS DAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TREND COLDER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT FALLS BACK MAINLY INTO
THE 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY KEEPING OUR AREA
LARGELY DRY. MID-TO-LATE WEEK IS WHERE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS WITH
THE FORMATION OF A BROAD STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION TO ITS PLACEMENT AND ULTIMATE TRACK, BUT IT MAY
BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAVP THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS (AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY), THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS
ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR, KRME, AND KBGM. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AT KRME
AND KSYR, WHICH MAY BRING SOME BRIEF VISBY RESTRICTIONS AS
WELL.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL
NY TERMINALS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BJG
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