983
FXUS61 KBGM 151246
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
846 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SYNTAX CHANGES TO THE KEY MESSAGES HEADLINES. OTHERWISE, NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ADJUSTED
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDER START TIMES, AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A LATER ONSET TIME OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY, STARTING
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
2) THE WARM PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN LATER IN THE
WEEKEND, WITH MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, AS THE AREA MAINTAINS UNDER
THE RIDGE FLOW PATTERN WITH SHORTWAVES AND MCS' CONTINUING TO
RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE. WE'RE CURRENTLY MONITORING THE MCS IN
MICHIGAN, WHICH WILL BE THE DRIVER OF SOME EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION AROUND SUNRISE. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM,
THERE'S A SMALL POCKET OF CAPE IN WESTERN NY THAT BLEEDS A
LITTLE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THIS FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING AND PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, BUT WILL LIKELY FIZZLE SLOWLY OUT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL NY AND THE TWIN TIERS.
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THERE
WILL BE MORE CAPE THAN YESTERDAY (>1000J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE)
AND BETTER SHEAR (>40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR). IF THE TIMING OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE THAT TRIGGERS THE STORMS IS LIKE THE CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING (IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING),
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY, AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
NY AND NE PA FOR THIS POTENTIAL, WITH A SLIGHT RISK NEARBY IN
CENTRAL PA. THE MAIN POTENTIAL THREATS WITH WEDNESDAY'S STORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS, SOME HAIL, AND
TRAINING STORMS BRINGING HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD CAUSE
ISOLATED FLOODING. WPC CONTINUES A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAIN, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WE WILL STILL BE IN THIS WARM SW FLOW PATTERN GOING INTO
THURSDAY, WITH FREQUENT SHORTWAVES BRINGING RAINFALL AND
AFTERNOON STORMS. BETTER FORCING ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY ALONG
AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF
CAPE THAT ULTIMATELY MATERIALIZES, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES BACK IN
THE MID-70S TO LOW 80S, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S,
INSTABILITY COULD AGAIN REACH MODERATE LEVELS (1000 J/KG +).
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS 0-6KM SHEAR
REMAINS ELEVATED BETWEEN 40-50 KTS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE REGION.
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR
A FEW STORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME DOWN SOME, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-60S
TO MID-70S EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE THIS WARM, EARLY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK HAS CONTINUED TO TREND COOLER, THANKS TO A TROUGH DIGGING
INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE GREAT LAKES LIKELY WARMING UP SOME OVER
THE REST OF THIS WEEK, IT IS POSSIBLE THEY WOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS PATTERN,
AS TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS EXCEED 15C FROM THE LAKE SURFACE
UP TO THE 850MB LEVEL.
WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE IT APPEARS DAYTIME HIGHS
MAY STAY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S ON MONDAY. VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 20S ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IT
THEN APPEARS A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AS OF NOW, THE PATTERN WITH THE COLD IS LOOKING DRY (OUTSIDE OF LAKE
EFFECT).
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH, WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY
AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR. THE REST OF THE DAY
IS LOOKING DRY AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY, LIKELY NOT UNTIL THE
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE LATE TIMING, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET SO STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN. STILL,
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF
ACTIVITY. SYR AND RME WILL POTENTIALLY BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR
THESE THUNDERSTORMS, SO NO THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THEIR TAFS.
THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY AT AVP IF THE LINE WILL EXTEND THAT
FAR SOUTH. FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS, ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
PROB30 GROUPS BASED ON UPDATED MODEL GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINITY WITH THE TIMING.
FOLLOWING THE CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN MVFR TO FUEL ALT, AT LEAST AT THE CNY TERMINALS.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE PARTING LINE AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY AT SYR AND RME.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER THE MORNING LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME CALMER ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIND
DIRECTION WILL VARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, STARTING OUT SOUTHERLY
AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJT/KL
AVIATION...BTL
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