549
FXUS61 KBGM 110509
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
109 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. URBAN VALLEYS SHOULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEED 95 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
2) MULTIPLE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE SEVERE.
3) COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BUT IT ALSO MAY KICK OFF MORE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND A HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES REGION. SW RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP ADVECTING IN WARM 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 20C AND SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 70S TODAY. LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
COULD LIMIT HEATING SOME, BUT STILL THINK THAT URBAN VALLEY
AREAS WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 95F FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.
A FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, HELPING TO LOWER
DEW POINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S SO WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM, THE HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL FINALLY COME BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING IN TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND PA, BUT LATEST
CAMS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND FIZZLING OUT BEFORE
REACHING OUR CWA. STILL WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT THE THREAT IS
LOW.
LATER TODAY, INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500
TO 2000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF CNY AND INTO NEPA BY LATER AFTERNOON.
A SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO NY LATER TODAY AND THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF STORMS AGAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE PRETTY STRAIT, SO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS THAT
FIRE. WEAKENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY WILL LOWER
THE HAIL RISK AND THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL HELICITY ALSO LOWERS
CHANCES OF ANY SPIN UPS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY, WITH A LINE OF
STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG IT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER WITH SHEAR INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. HODOGRAPHS ARE
STILL LOOKING FAIRLY STRAIT SO STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME SMALL
HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
DRIER AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY STILL QUITE WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, BUT DEW POINT READINGS FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
FEATURE, BEING IT IS STILL 4 DAYS OUT. HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH
SHEAR WITH 40KT+ OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE
DETERMINED ON THE EVENTUAL TIMING OF FROPA.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ONE LAST LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED STRAY
THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NEAR ELM, ITH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
(UNTIL 01Z)...AND BETWEEN 01-02Z AT BGM. AFTER THIS, SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SCT TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
A BRIEF CLEARING PERIOD MAY BRING FOG TO ELM BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE CROSS OVER DEW POINT BY
AROUND 04Z, THEREFORE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR IFR FOG BETWEEN
04-08Z AT ELM, BEFORE SOME MORE CLOUDS MOVES BACK TOWARD
DAYBREAK. ELM JUST PICKED UP A FEW HUNDRETHS OF RAIN RIGHT
BEFORE SUNSET, SO THIS SHOULD INCREASE PROBABILITIES OF FOG.
SYR HAS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOG TO FORM
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONSIDERING THE
HEAVY RAIN (1.75 INCHES) THE AREA SAW EARLIER THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL KEEP THE GROUND WET, WITH PLENTY OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. CURRENTLY HAVE FOG FORMING BY AROUND
02Z THIS EVENING, WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
06-10Z EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
RME CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT, DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z
AND POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO THE EARLY OR MID MORNING HOURS
BEFORE LIFTING.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BEFORE THE MID MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS
ON THURSDAY; INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA AT ALL OF OUR TAF
SITES, EXCEPT AVP FOR THIS POTENTIAL (19-24Z). CONFIDENCE IN
STORM PLACEMENT AND TIMING IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY, POTENTIAL FOG AT ELM OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY... SHOWERS RETURN WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ015>018-022>025-055-056.
DISCUSSION...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...JTC/MJM
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