657
FXUS61 KBGM 231056
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. MORNING FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, WITH
NIGHTS STARTING TO GET A LITTLE LONGER AND SOME BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE, VALLEY FOG WILL COULD DEVELOP IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, LASTING THROUGH SUNRISE, ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS
OF NY AND PA. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 80S FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, AND IN THE UPPER 70S TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TURN MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHEAST US. THERE ARE SOME STORM INGREDIENTS LINING UP DURING
THE EARLY WEEK, WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AND OVER 25
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR, AND PWATS AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES. OVERALL, IT
WILL BE A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD IN THE EARLY WEEK, BUT INGREDIENT
VALUES ARE LOWER THAN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ANY REMAINING FOG AT KELM WILL DISSIPATE AROUND, OR SOON AFTER
12Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS (AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY). FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN AT KELM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS AGAIN.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR; MORNING FOG AT KELM MAY
RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...BJG
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