892
FXUS61 KBGM 230456
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS POCONOS AND CATSKILLS AS PRECIPITATION IS
MOVING OUT FASTER THAN MODELED EARLY THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE GRADUALLY
WARMING UP INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS MOVES OFF SHORE THIS MORNING. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 10AM IN THE CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS BUT ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS WILL BE SCATTERING OUT AND
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THE RECENT RAIN,
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WITH LIGHTER
WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND WET SOILS.
A WEAK TROUGH MOVES IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
HELPING WARM TEMPERATURES BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE CREEPING UP, BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 65 SO
IT WONT FEEL TOO MUGGY. WITH THE TROUGH, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
DURING THE DAY. SHEAR IS LOOKING STRONG, WITH ENSEMBLES BETWEEN
30 AND 50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. SEVERE TYPE IS MAINLY LOOKING
LIKE A WIND THREAT, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO ALSO SHOW AT LEAST
SOME CURVATURE OF THE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS SO IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP WITH LOW ENOUGH LCLS, THERE COULD BE A
SMALL TORNADO RISK.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL, WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850
MB THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HELPING TO BOOST AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD 80S AND LOW 90S ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CLIMB, WITH GOOD CHANCES OF THEM REMAINING IN THE 60S SO
IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE MUGGY WITH THE HEAT. CLOUD COVER STILL
LOOKS WIDESPREAD AT LEAST HELPING CAP HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN WHAT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
20C BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS AND
MOISTURE UNDER ZONAL FLOW, THERE IS BOUND TO BE AT LEAST 1
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH ON THE WEEKEND TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS
BUT TIMING IT THIS FAR OUT IS DIFFICULT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL FEATURE A LOWERING TREND AS THE
EVENING GOES ON ENDING UP IN THE IFR CATEGORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TO MVFR
AND VFR TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CEILING HEIGHTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. VARIABILITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE EVENING WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AS WELL.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS
AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...MWG
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