158
FXUS61 KBGM 231735
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1235 PM EST THU JAN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS, WHICH LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
SEASONABLE AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND WITH
JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY BY
MONDAY, WITH THE VALLEY LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY RISING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MONDAY FEATURES PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
1220 PM UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S BY
THE MIDDAY UPDATE. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO BETTER
MATCH OBSERVATIONS, BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
945 AM UPDATE...
THE LAST OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE REGION. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE,
MAINLY FOR SKY COVER AS DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION AND
SOME CLEARING OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS ALREADY TAKEN PLACE.
640 AM UPDATE...
AS EXPECTED THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINED OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT; THIS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW
ZERO, WITH MANY LOCATIONS STARTING OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA BY MID MORNING, GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
THE TWIN TIERS SOUTH INTO NE PA. CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER, AND
PERHAPS MOST OF THE DAY UP TOWARD THE NW FINGER LAKES AND NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR (SYRACUSE TO UTICA). NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
310 AM UPDATE
QUIET WEATHER TODAY, WITH SEASONABLE COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. IT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO DAYS THOUGH. MORNING
CLOUDS GIVEWAY TO SOME SUNSHINE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS
AND NORTHEAST PA BY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK CLIPPER/FRONTAL SYSTEM
PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY
LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL BACK DOWN TO
AROUND -15C AT 850MB OVERNIGHT AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL GET SOME MORE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
GOING FOR PORTIONS OF CNY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIGHT; LESS THAN 1
INCH TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90...BUT PERHAPS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE US-ROUTE 20 CORRIDOR. NOT AS COLD TONIGHT, WITH LOWS 5
TO 15 ABOVE ZERO...VERY CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LINGER INTO FRIDAY IN THE COLD
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. LAKE ENHANCED STRATUS CLOUDS LOOK TO OVERSPREAD
THE ENTIRE AREA, LEADING TO A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
HOLD STEADY, NEAR -16C AT 850MB. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO LOOK
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON AND
ONEIDA COUNTIES...WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. ELSEWHERE IT WILL
BE SEASONABLE COLD, MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY WITH A FEW
FLURRIES FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 10S TO MID-20S
IN MOST LOCATIONS...SOME OF THE VALLEYS COULD SEE UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND GIVE WAY TO A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN, WINDS WILL BE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT
NORTH OUT OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH SOME MORNING SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST ON SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE
PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF I-81 AND FROM THE TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.
TEMPERATURES TURN A LITTLE MILDER FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 20S TO THE LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
AFTER THE WEAK CLIPPER DEPARTS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING, A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES PERHAPS CLIPPING NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND
ONEIDA COUNTIES MONDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGELY DRY DAY
AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE PASSES BY WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH A FRESH INJECTION OF COLD
AIR AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINING IN PLACE WEDNESDAY, A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRESH COLD AIR MASS SENDING SOME PLACES BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
1225 PM UPDATE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SWING SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BAND PASSING
THROUGH SYR AND RME BEGINNING AT 09Z. THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MVFR AT BOTH TERMINALS.
THIS BAND WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH WITH SNOW LASTING FOR ABOUT
3-4 HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE ONCE SNOW ENDS, BUT
CEILINGS WILL HOVER AROUND MVFR CATEGORY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT ITH AND BGM, AND WHILE SNOW CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT, GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE LOCATIONS DRY.
CURRENT GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANCE FOR ON-AND-OFF SNOW SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS FOR CNY TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY SYR
AND RME. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...BTL/MJM
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BTL
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