598
FXUS61 KBGM 290635
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY COME TO AN END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. THE ADVISORY FOR STEUBEN COUNTY HAS
ENDED BUT THE REST OF THE HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE 30S TODAY. TONIGHT WILL START OUT
DRY BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION AS IT MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S,
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SNOW. FOR TONIGHT, MOST
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
RESULTING IN A HALF INCH OR LESS. A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE
SETS UP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NY, SO N. ONEIDA COULD SEE AROUND 2
INCHES BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN
OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING DAYTIME WIND
CHILLS DOWN INTO THE 20S AND 30S. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT LEADING TO MORE
SCATTERED COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS SOUTHWARD.
FURTHER NORTH, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATION BETWEEN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE 3 TO 7 INCHES IN N. ONEIDA. WITH THESE TOTALS, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY WITH THE
LOW MOVING OFF INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BLUSTERY TO START THE DAY BUT GRADUALLY BECOME CALMER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WEAK WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A SYSTEM WILL ORIGINATE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH. AS MENTIONED IN PAST FORECAST UPDATES, THERE REMAINS QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE, THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST AND WETTEST COMPARED TO THE
CMC AND ECMWF. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL SHOW WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH IF THE END RESULT IS LIKE THE GFS,
THEN THERE WOULD BE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN OUR CWA. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE THIS SYSTEM, THE
DETAILS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR AS SOLUTIONS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. STAYING CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE, THIS SYSTEM
IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TAKING OVER. COOL, NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY. THE QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH THURSDAY, THOUGH
SIMILARLY WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM, THE EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
THEN BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
THOUGH BECOME EVEN COLDER FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE
WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS INTENSE LEADING TO A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
RESTRICTIONS INTO EARLY TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME BRIEF IFR
POTENTIAL AT SYR IF A MORE ORGANIZED SHOWER GOES DIRECTLY OVER
THE AIRPORT, OTHERWISE LOW MVFR IS EXPECTED. MOST OF THE
TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT RME.
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT, BUT WILL GRADUALLY START TO EASE
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WEST TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY
LLWS MAY LINGER AT ELM EARLY THIS PERIOD, WITH 45KTS OF SHEAR
POSSIBLE UP TO 2000' AGL THROUGH 06Z.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR IN THE EVENING; RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE
AS SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP, MAINLY AROUND ELM, ITH, SYR AND
RME.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR; SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND SYR AND RME.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ009-018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NYZ009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ017-
044>046.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL/MJM
AVIATION...DK/ES
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