700
FXUS61 KBGM 240009
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
809 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES TODAY AS RAIN PREVENTED ANY SOLAR HEATING
TODAY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE RAISED TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
MORE ROBUST LIFT MOVING IN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STEADY RAIN TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, THOUGH DRYING OUT FOR MEMORIAL DAY.
2) THE WEATHER PATTERN IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY AS NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO NY TODAY AND STALLED, LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH THE FRONT FINALLY BEGINNING
TO LIFT NORTH AGAIN AS ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND HELPS KICK IT OUT. SO FAR RAIN HAS BEEN LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR THE GROUND TO ABSORB WHAT IS FALLING SO RIVERS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND. WITH GREENUP AND RECENT DRY WEATHER, EVEN
THE RAIN TO COME WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO SOAK IN SO WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY RIVER ISSUES, EVEN IN SMALLER STREAMS AND
TRIBUTARIES WITH THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
CHANCES OF RAIN WERE INCREASED TOMORROW NIGHT AS A MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
JET MAX MOVES THROUGH HELPING TRIGGER THE REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
SHOWERS. DRY AIR FILTERS IN OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE
MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH
SHOWERS OUT OF THE REGION BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MEMORIAL
DAY. SUNSHINE ALSO RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
IN TIME FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS THE US WITH A TROUGH IN THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, A LARGE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL US INTO CANADA,
AND A TROUGH IN NEW ENGLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL CUT OFF MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF INTO OUR AREA SO RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW
THIS WEEK. GIVEN THE NW FLOW AND HEADING INTO SUMMER TIME, THERE
IS A CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE CAPPED AT 20% FOR NOW
UNTIL THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO HINT
AT A COLD POCKET OF AIR DESCENDING DOWN THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF IT WILL REMAIN A POTENTIAL AS IT COULD
LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST OVERNIGHT IF THE 850 MB TEMPS FALL BACK
BELOW FREEZING. ODDS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN HOW SMALL THE
POCKET OF COLD AIR IS, AND THERE IS STILL A LARGE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IN 500 MB HEIGHTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STEADY RAIN REMAINS ALONG AND EAST OF I-81, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE FINGER LAKES. WE EXPECT A SLIGHT LULL IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN UNTIL 6Z, THEN SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
RETURN INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
ANOTHER BREAK IN RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MOSTLY MVFR/FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. ELM COULD SEE SOME BRIEF IFR VISBY OVERNIGHT AS
SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS ROLL THROUGH, BUT SHOULD BE MVFR FOR MUCH
OF THE TIME. BGM/ITH SHOULD SEE IFR CEILINGS RETURN AROUND 06Z
AS THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN ARRIVES AND REMAIN THERE THRU THE TAF
PERIOD. AVP HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE TRICKY AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FORECASTING MUCH LOWER CEILINGS THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING.
BECAUSE OF THESE TRENDS, IFR CEILINGS WERE NOT INTRODUCED UNTIL
12Z, WHEN CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SYR/RME ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR/FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF IFR VISBY AT THESE
TERMINALS AS HEAVIER SHOWERS ROLL THROUGH, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF SET.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND FOG. MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY AFTERNOON...CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT...PATCHY FOG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
CLIMATE
THE LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDED ON 5/23 FOR EACH OF THE
CLIMATE SITES.
AVOCA/SCRANTON- 53 IN 1963 FORECAST: 55 (MIDNIGHT HIGH)
BINGHAMTON- 43 IN 1963 FORECAST: 54 (MIDNIGHT HIGH)
SYRACUSE-45 IN 1963 FORECAST: 57
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...JTC
CLIMATE...MJM/MWG
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