810
FXUS61 KBGM 011750
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
150 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OTSEGO,
DELAWARE AND SULLIVAN COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE MILD AND MOSTLY DRY.
2) A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN MIDWEEK WILL LEAD TO WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
REALLY NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
PRESENT OVER THE COUNTRY AND THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVERHEAD, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY DRY. DAYTIME HEATING MAY KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESENT,
MOISTURE IS LIMITED, SO DECIDED TO ONLY KEEP ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OTSEGO, DELAWARE AND
SULLIVAN COUNTY. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND
VERY SHORT-LIVED. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT, MAINLY WITHIN THE UPPER DELAWARE AND SUSQUEHANNA RIVER
VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS SHAPE MIDWEEK WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, AS THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL US DRIFTS EASTWARD
AND THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US FILLS AS IT MOVES OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND SEND WARM SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW INTO OUR
REGION. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST BY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPOTS NEARING 90 ON FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION AROUND THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME,
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED AND POSITIONING
OF THIS FRONT, BUT THIS COULD MAKE FOR A POTENTIALLY VERY WET
AND STORMY WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS THAT WILL
ALREADY BE IN PLACE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD, WITH EXCEPTION TO ELM, WHERE SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WITH BETTER MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
EACH AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...KL
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