541
FXUS61 KBGM 250544
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
144 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE JUST
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING SOME RAIN BANDS INTO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AHEAD OF A COASTAL LOW THAT WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
2) HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP
THROUGH MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE LAST FEW
DAYS WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEEPENS TODAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH
CLOUDS FILL IN FROM EAST TO WEST, FILTERING THE SUN BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL HELP KEEP TONIGHT'S LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THE COASTAL LOW STILL HAS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK DESPITE IMPACTS 24 TO 36 HOURS OUT. THE MAIN
REASON IS THIS LOW LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF A HYBRID BETWEEN A
TROPICAL LOW AND A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
THE CORE WILL HELP WITH PRESSURE FALLS WHILE THE COOL DRY AIR
MASS AND TROPICAL AIRMASS OF THE COAST WILL PROVIDE
BAROCLINICITY FOR PRESSURE FALLS AND CYCLOGENESIS. THE
COMBINATION OF A BAROCLINIC PROCESS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE
PROCESS IS SOMETHING THAT MODELS DO NOT HANDLE WELL UNTIL THE
LOW HAS CONSOLIDATED. EVEN THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
STRUGGLE MAINLY BECAUSE THE LOW IS ON THE EDGE OF THEIR DOMAINS
AND THEY TEND TO OVER DO DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER WARM WATERS.
TONIGHT'S MODEL RUNS IN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THAT HAS COME IN HAS BROUGHT THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST, WITH OCCLUSION LIKELY HAPPENING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. QPF AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN RAISED
SLIGHTLY REGION WIDE. THE CATSKILLS MAY GET A BIT OF A RAINFALL
BULLSEYE WITH HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY END UP
WITH MOIST NE FLOW. EVEN UNDER SOME OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS WITH
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 TO 36 HOURS, RAINFALL INTENSITY
IS BELOW FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS AND AMOUNTS ARE NOT OF CONCERN FOR
RIVER FLOODING EITHER.
WITHOUT MUCH SYNOPTIC SUPPORT DUE TO A WEAK JET STREAM AND THE
LOW MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS REDUCING THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER. THIS LIKELY CAUSES THE LOW TO OCCLUDE QUICKLY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THE LOW FILLS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN WITH INITIALLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MID WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE COUPLED WITH
SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT UNDER THE RIDGE MEANS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE NEAR 0 LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOWARDS
LATE WEEK, A FEW SHORTWAVES LOOK TO TRY AND SNEAK INTO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE SW FLOW TO INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN SLIGHTLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SLOWLY WARMING, GETTING BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ELM TONIGHT, WITH IFR TO
LIFR RESTRICTIONS INTO THE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN BETWEEN 13Z-14Z. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO
ITH AND SYR LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME PERIODIC MVFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE. THE REST OF OUR
TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/BJG
AVIATION...JTC
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