840
FXUS61 KBGM 242337
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
737 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. EXPECT CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ALMOST EVERY DAY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
730 PM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK AND JUST MADE
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST METSAT AND
OBSERVATIONS.
330 PM UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE NEXT ROUND
OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND MAYBE A WEAK THUNDERSTORM LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON...AND THE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY ON
MONDAY.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LARGE SCALE SUPPRESSION ON TOP
OF A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN MAINE
COAST INTO ERN PA. THIS IS CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA
WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. AIR MASS IS A BIT
MORE HUMID THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE W/NW. AS THIS WEAK TROUGH FILLS IN
FROM THE WEST, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. EARLY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE BACK INTO THE 50S BEFORE
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S MEMORIAL DAY
AFTERNOON.
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL NY
WITH A BATCH OF SCATTERED MORNING RAIN SHOWERS. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A FEW EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. DEW
POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO TRIGGER A FEW STORMS. LATEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE NOON,
BUT THEN WE COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE FINGER LAKES
IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IS APPEARS IT WILL BE RATHER
ISOLATED, BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT GIVEN THE AMT OF INSTABILITY
THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE GENERATED OVER PORTIONS OF WRN NY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT 1000-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT NEARLY ZERO SHEAR
AND ALSO NO FORCING MECHANISM TO CENTER AROUND.
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NEAR ZERO, AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S, AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
330 PM UPDATE...
NO REAL CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDWEEK. THE FORECAST WILL
BE DOMINATED BY THE APEX OF THE RIDGE MOVING OVER EASTERN NY AND PA,
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS TUESDAY LEADING TO OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, WHILE THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN
THE 80S AND EVEN NEAR THE 90F ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT MORE OFFSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY, SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COME IN JUST A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD EACH NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH RIDGING AND A CAPPING INVERSION HELPING TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, GENERALLY FROM THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY. WITH COMPARATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHEAST PA, THE POCONOS, AND CATSKILLS, IT SHOULD BE MORE OF A
STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT FROM UNDER THE CAP.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
330 PM UPDATE...
AS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY WITH A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS
IN ITS WAKE, CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT NOT ENOUGH SHEAR TO
CAUSE ANY CONCERNS FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 60S
OVERNIGHT, THEN WILL COME IN A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES IN WILL
BRING ABOUT DRY, QUIET, AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S FRIDAY NIGHT, PEAKING IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS TO AT LEAST SYR, RME, AND ITH. LESS
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AT ELM AND BGM, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
A SHOWER MAY BRING RESTRICTIONS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY AFTER 15Z, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT ANY SITES AT THIS
TIME.
FOR AVP, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT MVFR CEILINGS PUSH IN
FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS MAY ADVECT FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD TO AFFECT BGM AND ELM AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...MPK
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