868
FXUS61 KBGM 080521
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
121 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
2) SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE QUIET WEATHER AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MORNING
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF SOON AFTER SUNRISE. A COOL
START TO THE DAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO WARMING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE STRONG JULY SUN ANGLE
HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
OVERALL, A QUIET AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING LATER THIS EVENING,
BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER, OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE +16 TO +18 DEGREES C RANGE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S, WITH A FEW LOWER 90S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HEAT INDICES IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS. AS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS INCREASE, SO TOO WILL
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SOUTHERN
WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST PA.
LATER IN THE DAY A NORTHERN WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL GENERATE A BROADER AREA IF CONVECTION THAT PROGRESSES
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY, WITH ML
CAPE VALUES AROUND 800-1000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS ON THE WEAKER SIDE AND MAY
LIMIT SUSTAINED OR MATURE CONVECTION. THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST PA SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK, WITH
GREATER CONCERN FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ACCOMPANYING
THE INCOMING FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY
WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO ERODE THE INVERSION AND TAP INTO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT A
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT, WITH LONG SKINNY CAPE, PWATS OF
1.5 TO 2 INCHES, AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 11-12 KFT. THIS
THREAT APPEARS GREATEST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PA.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S, THOUGH DEW POINTS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S. A LINGERING BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST JET STREAK
ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, USHERING IN A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AS A DRIER
PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FOG FORMATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IFR
TO LIFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KITH, KBGM, KRME AND KELM. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 13Z.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR; HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN, MORNING FOG LIKELY, MAINLY AT ELM.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...COLD FRONT COULD MOVE IN AND STALL,
LEADING TO PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY...VFR LIKELY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, MORNING FOG
POTENTIAL AT ELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJT/ES
AVIATION...KL
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