067
FXUS61 KBGM 241820
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
220 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY HAVE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY, BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME WET SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS SATURDAY NIGHT.
2) DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, THEN SEVERAL
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S). SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS MAY MIX WITH WET SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY EVENING, BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
RAINFALL TOTALS ON SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.00"-1.25" FOR NORTHEAST PA TO AS FAR NORTH AS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION, WITH LOWER AMOUNTS (MOSTLY 0.50" OR LESS)
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER, WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS STARTING LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY OR EVEN
TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR UNTIL AT LEAST 09Z SATURDAY. THEN EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING POP-UP SHOWERS PRIOR TO 06Z BUT WITH
COVERAGE QUITE SCATTERED, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE RAIN
AT ANY ONE TERMINAL PRIOR TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM VFR TO IFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AT AVP, BGM, ELM, AND ITH. SYR AND RME WILL BE
AT THE EDGE OF ANY CEILING RESTRICTIONS BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THE RAIN, VISIBILITIES WILL
ALSO BE REDUCED.
THERE ARE SOME GUSTS BEING OBSERVED IN THE REGION THOUGH
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO PICK UP ON THIS. GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS
ARE EXPECTED AT AVP, BGM, AND ELM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS SETTLE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE RAIN
APPROACHES, WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.
IFR OR LOWER LIKELY AT ITH, ELM, BGM AND AVP AT TIMES.
SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG
AVIATION...BTL
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