394
FXUS61 KBGM 201147
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED POPS, QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE WEST- SOUTHWEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE
INCREASING FOR HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND TO KEEP HEAVY
SNOWFALL SOUTH OF THE REGION, BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO NE PA AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN TIER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT EVENT CONTINUES TODAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OFF OF LAKE ERIE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY (0.5" TO 1"). FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
MAY SEE THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND SNEAK IN AT TIMES WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.
3) CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES, BUT ULTIMATELY WEAKENS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY ONEIDA AND
STEUBEN COUNTIES)
4) COLD ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY KEEP ANY
HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS WEEKEND'S WINTER STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION, ALTHOUGH SOME ACCUMULATION IS STILL POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE PA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND IS WELL ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT IT REMAINS NORTH OF ONEIDA COUNTY, BUT MAY SEE THE EDGE OF
THIS BAND SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PEAK OF THE COUNTY. THE
LAKE ERIE BAND HAS REMAINED MOSTLY WEST OF THE THE REGION, AS
VERY COLD AND DRY AIR HAS LIMITED THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE SNOW.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND IN/AROUND THE
SYRACUSE METRO AREA. ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH JUST A DUSTING TO HALF INCH SOUTH OF I-90. FAR NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES BY SUNRISE, BUT LATEST
MODELS ARE KEEPING THE SNOW JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
LATEST CMCREG HAS REALLY CUT BACK SNOW TOTALS FOR NORTHERN
ONEIDA AND WITH THIS UPDATE, POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALL
BEEN LOWERED. HOWEVER, HRRR AND NAMNEST STILL SHOW THE LAKE BAND
WIGGLING SOME TODAY AND IF THE BAND CAN COME SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH, THEN FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA
OUT FOR NOW, BUT IF THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND FAILS TO DROP SOUTH AT
ALL, THEN THIS ADVISORY WILL HAVE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY.
TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWEST AND THIS SHOULD
COMPLETELY LIFT THE LAKE BAND NORTHWARD AND OUT OF ONEIDA
COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD
ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR AREA AS THIS WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH MORE SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY; ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
NY. THE FLOW SLOWLY SHIFTS MORE DUE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
THIS COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO
IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF I-90. AT THIS TIME, THE CMCREG AGAIN KEEP
THE LAKE BAND JUST NORTH AND OUTSIDE OUR CWA, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA
ON FRIDAY. ALONG THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, ALONG WITH BLUSTERY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS TYPE OF AIR MASS IS CAPABLE OF
BRINGING EXTREME BITTER COLD CONDITIONS AND FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY COULD SEE LOWS SATURDAY MORNING DOWN TO 20 BELOW ZERO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER VERY
COLD NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. IF WINDS CAN
DECOUPLE IT COULD TREND EVEN COLDER.
ON SUNDAY A LARGE WINTER STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S AT ABOUT 1040 MB, WHICH IS QUITE STRONG.
THIS HIGH DOES WEAKEN SOME AND THEN RETROGRADES NORTHWARD A BIT
SUNDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS HIGH WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE
HEAVY SNOW SOUTH OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, IT'S STILL TOO EARLY
TO TELL HOW FAR NORTH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COULD PUSH.
DEFINITELY SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW GETTING
INTO NE PA AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
HOWEVER, SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE AI GFS SHOWS THE HIGH
WINNING OUT AND KEEPING ALMOST ALL THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF RME, BUT THE BANDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME LOWER CEILINGS
AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES CAN BE POSSIBLE AROUND ITH
AFTER 16Z. THESE LOWER CEILINGS COULD ALSO SHIFT NORTH TOWARD
SYR EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WITH REGARDS TO
ANY RESTRICTIONS, BOTH ITH AND SYR WERE KEPT VFR AT THIS TIME.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO START TO EASE TOWARD 00Z WEDNESDAY AND BECOME MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING BY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NY TERMINALS. BORDERLINE SWERLY LLWS ALSO
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT
INTERMITTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, GENERALLY
FOR SYR-RME-ITH; LOW CONFIDENCE ON RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015-
022>024.
DISCUSSION...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...DK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page