544  
FXUS61 KBGM 131506  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
1006 AM EST THU FEB 13 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST  
OF I-81 EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS  
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEW YORK  
STATE THRUWAY NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL. ANOTHER STORM  
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
830 AM UPDATE...  
 
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BASED  
ON LATEST OBS, RADAR AND CAMS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES HAVE  
CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING ALMOST EVERYWHERE, WITH JUST A FEW  
POCKETS BELOW FREEZING IN THE CATSKILLS, SO THE REMAINING  
COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO  
EXPIRE AT 10 AM.  
 
630 AM UPDATE...  
 
MOST AREAS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING OUT SIDE OF A FEW SPOTS  
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BROOME AND SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES.  
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE OVER THE NEXT HOUR, THEN  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED  
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SW THIS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS CURRENTLY  
MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PA. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS  
UPDATE AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
300 AM UPDATE...  
 
WE HAVE SEEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT  
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. TEMPS  
HAVE MOSTLY RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AND INTO THE MID 30S, WITH A  
FEW HOLDOUTS AROUND 30-31 DEGREES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY  
FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, WEST OF I-81 HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE  
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. THE ADVISORY EAST OF I-81 REMAINS IN  
EFFECT AS SOME SLEET AND SNOW REMAINS, BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE IN A  
COUPLE OF HOURS TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TO BE CANCELLED AS TEMPS RISE  
ABOVE FREEZING. A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO  
THE AREA AFTER 7AM, MOVING SW TO NE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN  
TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE  
MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING SO JUST RAIN IS EXPECTED, EXCEPT FOR  
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHERE SNOW MAY HOLD ON AS TEMPS WILL BE  
NEAR FREEZING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH A WARM AIR INTO THE  
AREA, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE VALLEYS  
OF NEPA, SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE  
REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO  
LOW 40S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST STARTING IN THE  
EARLY AFTERNOON, QUICKLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S  
AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE SE. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S BY  
THE EVENING, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.  
 
A COLD BURST OF AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM ABOVE FREEZING AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT TO -17C BEHIND IT. THIS COLD AIR WILL RESIDE OVER THE  
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS  
COLD AIR OVER OPEN WATER COMBINED WITH A PRETTY STRONG UPSTREAM  
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP ACROSS ONEIDA, MADISON AND  
ONONDAGA COUNTIES. THE BAND SHOULD DEVELOP OVER ONEIDA COUNTY  
OVERNIGHT, THEN DIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ONONDAGA, MADISON AND  
SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTIES FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH FRIDAY  
EVENING AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW AND DISRUPTS THE WIND  
FIELD OVER THE LAKES. GIVEN THE STRONG UPSTREAM CONNECTION AND  
MOSTLY UNIFORM WIND FIELD IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, A PRETTY WELL  
ORGANIZED SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS EVENING  
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN  
ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF THIS, A LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS  
FROM 4PM TODAY TO 1AM SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
415 AM UPDATE  
 
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE VERY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER, WITH  
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW, MIX AND SOME RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT STARTS OFF QUIET, WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH AND DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT. A  
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, SLIDING  
EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE COLD IN 10S FOR MOST.  
 
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THEN QUICKLY ROLLS INTO THE AREA FROM  
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY, SPREADING LIGHT TO  
MODERATE SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN  
BETWEEN -2C AND -8C. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE  
MID-20S TO LOWER 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON UNDER A WARM AIR  
ADVECTION REGIME. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 7-15 MPH WITH  
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW  
TO FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY  
EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL AND AMOUNTS COULD  
BE A LITTLE HIGHER OR LOWER; BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.  
 
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE  
COMPLEX AND INHERENTLY UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE;  
INCLUDING THE GFS/GEFS, ECMWF/ECS AND CMC, CMC ENS ALL TRENDED  
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE NEXT LOW TRACK...AND THEREFORE  
COLDER/SNOWIER. THE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK UP ALONG OR JUST WEST OF  
THE APPALACHIANS SATURDAY NIGHT. WARMER, ABOVE 0C AIR ALOFT MAY  
SURGE NORTH THROUGH NE PA, THE TWIN TIERS AND PERHAPS AS FAR  
NORTH AS I-90...THIS WOULD CHANGE THE SNOW OVER TO A MESSY MIX  
OF SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY  
RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID-30S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...EXCEPT STILL  
UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND LOCATIONS ALONG AND  
NORTH OF I-90. BY 18Z (1PM EST) SUNDAY THE MODELED LOW POSITIONS  
RANGE FROM NEAR KIAD ON THE ECMWF, TO OVER KBGM/NYC ON THE GFS,  
AND NEAR KMDT ON THE CMC OPERATIONAL. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PUTS THE  
CENTER OF THE LOW SOMEWHERE OVER EAST-CENTRAL PA AT THIS TIME.  
THERE IS STILL AMPLE SPREAD AND WE WILL BE WATCHING THE TREND IN  
THE 0C ISOTHERM AND LOW TRACK IN THE COMING DAYS...AS THIS WILL  
DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 
PROBABILITIES OF 3" OR MORE OF SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY  
NIGHT ARE INCREASING ALONG AND NORTH OF US ROUTE 20, AND  
ESPECIALLY I-90 NORTH. IF THIS LOW SHIFTS ITS TRACK BY 60-90  
MILES FURTHER SOUTH THERE WOULD BE A MUCH HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL  
FOR PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND CONVERSELY IF IT SHIFTS  
60-90 MILES FURTHER NW THERE WOULD BE MUCH MORE RAIN AND MILDER  
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW, THE OFFICIAL  
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NBM ENSEMBLE WITH A NOD TO THE  
SLIGHTLY COLDER 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES  
AGREE THAT BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A SHARP, ARCTIC  
COLD FRONT PRESSES THROUGH THE AREA WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.  
THERE WILL BE WRAP AROUND AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DURING  
THIS TIME AS WELL, AND ANY WET SURFACES COULD SEE A FLASH-  
FREEZE EVENT TAKE PLACE AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S BY  
EVENING. MORE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY  
SUNDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH BLUSTERY WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING  
SNOW. VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-  
TEENS EXPECTED. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS COULD DROP BETWEEN 10 BELOW  
AND 5 ABOVE ZERO BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
418 AM UPDATE  
 
THIS WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINTRY PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME SQUALLS OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER  
COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH  
850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -22C OVER THE CWA. THIS  
WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 10S FOR CNY AND MOST OF NE PA,  
WITH SOME LOWER 20S POSSIBLE DOWN IN THE WYOMING VALLEY. MONDAY  
NIGHT FEATURES MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH STALLS OVER SE CANADA...THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO KEEP  
WRAP AROUND NORTH ATLANTIC MOISTURE NEAR OR OVER THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION. IF THIS IS THE CASE, THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WOULD  
BE FURTHER ENHANCED, ALSO AIDED BY THE 24C TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL  
FROM THE LAKE SURFACE TO 850MB. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW  
AVERAGE RIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE  
SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE US BY  
MIDWEEK, WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF  
THE TROUGH BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS COULD ALLOW  
A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF, TRYING TO TURN THE  
CORNER AND HEAD UP THE EAST COAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT,  
IF ANY IMPACTS THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WOULD HAVE ON OUR AREA...BUT  
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OUTSIDE OF  
BGM, WHERE IFR CEILINGS ARE PRESENT. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED  
TO SPREAD ACROSS AVP/ITH/RME THIS MORNING AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE  
IN. ELM AND SYR SHOULD REMAIN FUEL ALT AS WIND DIRECTION HERE IS  
NOT CONDUCIVE TO IFR CEILINGS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE  
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT TO NWERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AS THE FRONT  
PASSES TERMINALS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON, IMPACTING SYR AND RME AND DROPPING VISBY DOWN TO IFR  
AT SYR THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND RME FOR A PERIOD LATE IN THE  
EVENING BEFORE THE BAND MOVES MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND  
VISBY BECOMES MVFR.  
 
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH  
THE MID-MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS  
POSSIBLE. HIGHEST CHANCES AT KSYR AND KRME.  
 
SATURDAY...SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING AND LASTING MOST OF  
THE DAY AT ALL SITES. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN AT  
KAVP. RESTRICTIONS LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR  
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SNOW AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FROM MIXED  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME.  
 
 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST  
SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-018-036-037.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...JTC  
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK  
SHORT TERM...MJM  
LONG TERM...MJM  
AVIATION...JTC  
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