311
FXUS61 KBGM 110514
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
114 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE AGAIN HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ISAIAS PUSHING ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. DRY AND WARM WEATHER RETURNS ON
MONDAY.
2) A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH ZONAL FLOW UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN A POTENTIAL
DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ENTERS THE REGION
TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL PUSHES INTO NEPA THIS MORNING AND
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN
WILL BE STEADY THROUGH DAY AND BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
NEPA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER HAS POTENTIAL TO SEE LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LESS THAN INCH EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH
SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING ISSUES COULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW DUE TO
THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AND DRIZZLE MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO,
CANADA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING. DURING THE DAY, OUR CWA WILL INITIALLY BE WELL WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IF THE TIMING WORKS OUT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES RANGING UP TO 500-1000 J/KG
WEST OF THE I81 CORRIDOR, ALONG WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR. PWATS ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.4 IN, SO ANY CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED SOME
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S POSSIBLE WEST OF I81 AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S TO LOW
70S ELSEWHERE.
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS IT MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY, INTO SATURDAY AS A POTENTIALLY DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES
OF THE SEASON, STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS. RAIN
FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS IS JUST AT THE BORDER OF THE AREA,
AND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO AVP AROUND SUNRISE, WITH CONDITIONS
FALLING TO IFR RESTRICTION AT AROUND 14Z, AND LASTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BGM/ELM/ITH WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN BY MID-MORNING, WITH
MVFR/FUEL ALT CONDITIONS QUICKLY FOLLOWING. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THESE TERMINALS WILL SEE IFR RESTRICTIONS
STARTING AROUND 20Z-23Z, AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD.
SYR AND RME SHOULD START TO SEE RAIN SHOWERS LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SIMILARLY TO ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
LATER TONIGHT, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT,
TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MOSTLY IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO BE CLOSER TO
MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION WITH SHOWERS
AND EVEN A SMALL CHANCE OF DAYTIME THUNDER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD
RESULT IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VALLEY FOG
AT ELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPK
AVIATION...KL
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