511
FXUS61 KBGM 311713
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1213 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN EXPECTED
THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY.
2) ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LAKE EFFECT
HAS RETREATED SOME, BUT SNOW IS STILL BEING OBSERVED AT
SYRACUSE. IN OTHER WORDS LAKE EFFECT IS STILL OCCURRING, BUT AT
A MORE SHALLOW LAYER THAT THE RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING. LINGERING
FLURRIES THIS MORNING ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE TWIN TIERS
REGION ALONG WITH SOME FINGER LAKE ENHANCEMENT. OTHERWISE NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES CONTINUES TODAY, SO EXPECT THESE
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST. LAKE EFFECT
IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT SOMETIME THIS EVENING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE #2...
A BLANKET OF CLOUDS HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE REGION KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
SHOULD HOVER RIGHT AROUND ZERO, WITH BORDERLINE WIND CHILLS.
DESPITE THIS, KEPT THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FEEL COLD AND
POTENTIAL FOR COLD WIND CHILLS RETURNS TONIGHT. ARCTIC AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION, THE WESTERN HALF WILL BE JUST
ABOVE. WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN BE REEVALUATED FOR TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST PA, WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK
UP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL
BELOW -20 DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY HANGING AROUND MOST
TERMINALS, AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE BECOMING A LOW SCATTERED DECK. VERY SMALL STRIPS OF LAKE
EFFECT ARE COMING OFF OF THE FINGER LAKES, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING ITH AND BGM. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE GENERAL FLOW
OFF THE LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...LINGERING MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT THE
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. LOW CHANCE FOR SOME IFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR TO LOCALIZE IFR CIGS CONTINUE AT
MOST TAF SITES IN THE COLD N-NW FLOW
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY..MAINLY VFR; LOW CHANCE (25% OR LESS)
FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES DUE TO OCCASIONAL
LAKE EFFECT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...ES
AVIATION...KL
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