867
FXUS61 KBGM 281450
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
950 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST PA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NY, WITH NEW COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PA TONIGHT.
2) LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER ONONDAGA THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHTER SNOW JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
3) ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES. NOR'EASTER LOOKS TO TRACK EAST OF OUR REGION, BUT
SOME SOLUTIONS TRACK SLIGHTLY WEST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR
NORTHEAST PA AND STEUBEN COUNTY. THE COLD PATTERN PERSISTS, WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT OF BORDERLINE WIND CHILLS EXPECTED. WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY,
LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL RANGE
FROM -18 TO -20 DEGREES C, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 0
DEGREES F AGAIN TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PA MAY SEE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER, COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILLS
COULD AGAIN FALL -10 TO -17 IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONO
MOUNTAIN REGION. AS A RESULT, A NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES IN THAT REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO EXPAND INTO CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. THE
DOMINANT FLOW WILL FOCUS THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
ONONDAGA COUNTY WHERE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH HIGH SNOW RATIOS, FLUFFY SNOW WILL ALLOW A FEW INCHES TO
ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTY. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ONONDAGA COUNTY THROUGH 3PM. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING,
BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH AGAIN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE #3
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, USHERING IN AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF COLD AIR.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO -22 TO -24
DEGREES C, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION FRIDAY NIGHT,
THEN TRACK EAST AND RIDE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A NOR'EASTER TRACKING
EAST OF THE REGION IN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN NH SOLUTIONS, WHILE
THE GFS REMAINS FURTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES FOR RME AND SYR WITH IFR AND LIFR AT
TIMES. THE BAND WEAKENS AND DROPS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
SO RME WILL GET A REPRIEVE WHILE SYR STILL DEALS WITH IFR AT
TIMES.
THE SNOW BAND LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR AT SYR AND RME THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BEFORE IT
IS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT BGM AND ITH BEING AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MID DAY BUT OTHERWISE ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE VFR.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY... A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR OFF AND ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT KRME AND
KSYR. OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
SUNDAY...VFR WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. MONITORING TRENDS OF
POTENTIAL STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES
AVIATION...AJG
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