435
FXUS61 KBGM 170522
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
122 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA COUNTIES
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BLUSTERY START TO THE WEEKEND IS IN STORE AS LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY COMES TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND MUCH FROM THE MORNING LOWS AS HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LINGER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS OVER 20 MPH AT TIMES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL QUITE BLUSTERY AS WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S THIS
MORNING AND LIKELY STAY IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. THE
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME WET
SNOW MAY MIX IN EARLY THIS MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND WILL HELP CUT OFF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AS IT BRINGS A
DRIER AIRMASS. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY INTO
THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR TO FULL SUNSHINE.
THE FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY BELOW NBM GUIDANCE GIVEN
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION. THE FREEZE WATCH
FOR LUZERNE AND LACKAWANNA COUNTIES HAS BEEN UPGRADE TO A FREEZE
WARNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY OVER THE REGION AND MOST OF THE EASTERN
US THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OUT OF THE REGION. GRADUAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER TONIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES GET BACK
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
LITTLE AFTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS CONSISTENTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH THE 70S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP
AROUND OR A BIT AFTER SUNRISE. POSSIBLY LINGERING A FEW HOURS
LONGER AT KITH AND KBGM. WINDS GUSTS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE IFR VALLEY FOG OR FREEZING
FOG (SUNDAY AM) AT ELM IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/BTL
AVIATION...MWG
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