855  
FXUS61 KBGM 142255  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
655 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH ONLY A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE WEATHER  
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED BEGINNING SUNDAY AS SYSTEMS  
APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST U.S.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
600 PM UPDATE...  
 
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER FOR THIS  
EVENING, BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID.  
 
300 PM UPDATE...  
 
STAYING DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SO FAR, BUT A TERRAIN-  
INDUCED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS CENTRAL NY HAS BEEN ABLE TO  
PRODUCE SOME STRAY, SHORT-LIVED SPRINKLES. NO REAL ACCUMULATIONS  
ARE EXPECTED, AND AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING, THESE SHOULD  
DIMINISH WITH HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  
 
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN LIGHT UNDER  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE  
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.  
 
FOR SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SLOWLY RECEDE TO OUR  
NORTHEAST, AND AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH  
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO WESTERN PA, A FEW  
SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ACTIVITY IS LOOKING QUITE LIMITED  
AS MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE MORE TO OUR  
SOUTH, INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED  
SHOWERS LINGER OVERNIGHT, WHILE TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE  
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY AFTERNOON FALL TO OVERNIGHT  
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
330 PM UPDATE  
 
A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIOD EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS  
AND WEAK FRONTS MOVE THROUGH ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS  
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
FORECAST. SEE BELOW FORE MORE DETAILS:  
 
SUNDAY: A MOIST, LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OF MARITIME/MARINE AIR  
WILL PUSH INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL  
LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST, HUMID AND COOL  
ACROSS THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS MOST OF THE DAY. THERE  
COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN POCKETS OF DRIZZLE IN THESE  
LOCATIONS...HIGHS ONLY TOP OUT BETWEEN 68-75 HERE. FURTHER WEST  
(WEST OF I-81 AND NORTH OF I-88) EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS  
TO EITHER NOT MAKE IT IN, OR SLOWLY BREAK UP BY LATE MORNING.  
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER  
80S AND CREATE MORE INSTABILITY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES  
IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO IGNITE  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS....  
ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES REGION. DON'T THINK  
SUNDAY WILL BE A WASHOUT FOR ANY ONE LOCATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO  
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW AND IT'S PROXIMITY  
TO THE EAST COAST. IF THIS LOW SHIFTS ANY FURTHER NW, IT COULD  
MEAN MORE RAIN FOR THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. THE  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE MOVING  
FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL BE IN BETWEEN MAIN SHORTWAVE  
DISTURBANCES. THEREFORE, THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW  
SHOWERS OR EMBEDDED T'STORMS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BINGHAMTON  
ACROSS CNY. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND PARTLY TO  
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE  
AREA ON MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD  
INSTABILITY, PERHAPS 300-600 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND ABOUT 30-40 KTS  
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD BRING  
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED T'STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
AND EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. TIMING TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE  
WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW, HAVE 30-50 POP FOR  
T'STORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THE  
SHOWERS AND STORMS IT SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WITH  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S. MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT  
COOLER AIR ARRIVES BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND  
SURFACE FRONT SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING  
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 50S OR LOW 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
330 PM UPDATE  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND  
AND SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA UNDER A  
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. CANNOT RULE OUT A  
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS UP NORTH DUE TO SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY  
AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE  
PARTLY SUNNY AND A LITTLE COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS  
CNY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN NE PA. DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE  
UPPER 40S TO MID-50S...SO AGAIN, MUCH DRIER FEELING. IT COULD BE  
A LITTLE BREEZY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 8-15 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS  
WITH LOWS 50-55 FOR MOST LOCATIONS (UPPER 50S STILL WYOMING  
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES).  
 
OUR AREA IS THEN BETWEEN A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH STILL UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A WEAK WAVE MOVING  
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, IT'S  
LOOKING DRY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES  
BACK UP TO SEASONAL LEVELS. THE TROUGH SWINGS ANOTHER FRONT  
THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS  
THE FRONT WASHING OUT AND REALLY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES,  
WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING A MORE WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY THROUGH THE  
REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE FOR A  
FEW SHOWERS OR T'STORMS ON THURSDAY UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE  
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 1-3  
DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY (LOW TO MID-80S FOR MOST).  
 
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BY NEXT FRIDAY, WITH THE 12Z ECMWF  
SHOWING DRY WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.  
MEANWHILE, THE GFS BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS UP INTO  
OUR NE PA ZONES...STUCK CLOSE TO THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR THIS  
PERIOD CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY...THIS GAVE JUST A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS THURSDAY FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING, BUT WITH  
HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY  
LEAD TO MVFR OR TEMPORARY IFR RESTRICTIONS AT KELM TONIGHT. VFR  
CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNRISE. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO  
THICKEN AT KBGM, KELM AND KAVP THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS AN  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA, BUT ANY BKN  
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z SUN.  
 
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BUT REMAIN LIGHT  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND 4 TO 7 KTS  
SAT AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE,  
ESPECIALLY FOR KELM. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS.  
 
MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...HLC  
NEAR TERM...BJG/HLC  
SHORT TERM...MJM  
LONG TERM...DJP/MJM  
AVIATION...BJT/HLC  
 
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