075
FXUS61 KBGM 281755
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
155 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
NOR'EASTER BEGINS TO DEPART THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
STRETCH OF WARMER, DRIER WEATHER.
2) THE PATTERN WILL BECOME ACTIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS RAIN RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NOR'EASTER WILL SLOWLY MOVE UP THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY, SHOWERS
WILL COME TO AN END WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER AN INVERSION. MOST PROFILES
WOULD FAVOR LOW STRATUS OVER FOG THROUGH BOTH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WHERE FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT MAY BECOME
DENSE.
THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL CLEAR UP BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND
AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TOMORROW BUT
A COUPLE OF MODELS STILL TRY TO POP UP A COUPLE POCKETS OF WHAT
WOULD JUST BE DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE. WITHOUT THE RAIN AND SOME
LATE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT IN WARMER AIR, HELPING PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND
EVEN 80S THROUGH THURSDAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE MILD
AS WELL, ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ON
THURSDAY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LEADING TO GUSTS OF 15 TO
20 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION COMES WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY DEPARTS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR FILLING IN BEHIND. THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES
OFF TO THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE UP INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS WEEK'S NOR'EASTER, THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKER TO MOVE THROUGH WITH POTENTIAL
FOR DRIER CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK.
WITH BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS, THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES. THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM STILL VARIES BY 6 TO 12 HOURS BETWEEN GUIDANCE.
MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE
GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF SUNDAY'S
SYSTEM, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND HOW IT INTERACTS
WITH A LOW IN CANADA.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
BEHIND THE LOW LINGERS. TONIGHT, HILL TOP FOG IS LIKELY WITH BGM
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT AIRPORT MINS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
ITH ALSO HAS A GOOD CHANCE BUT MAY REMAIN AS A LIFR CIG. AVP IS
UNCERTAIN IF THERE CAN BE FOG OR ANY VIS RESTRICTION OVERNIGHT
SO LEFT AN IFR CIG BUT CIGS COULD DROP LOW ENOUGH TO LEAD TO IFR
FOG. ELM WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THE CLOUD DECK WITH IFR TO
LIFR CIGS BUT IF THERE CAN BE A FEW HOURS OF CLEARING, THEN FOG
WILL FORM BUT THAT IS LOOKING UNLIKELY RIGHT NOW.
SYR AND RME LOOK TO BE ON THE NORTH END OF THE IFR CIGS. GIVEN
THE TIME OF THE YEAR, THE CIGS MAY LINGER LONGER THAN MODELED SO
KEPT IN IFR FOR BOTH LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT BUT MANY OF THE MODELS
DO HAVE THE SKIES CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TOMORROW, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SUN TO HELP DRY AIR MIX
IN. IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER TO AT LEAST MID MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NEPA. ELM, ITH, AND BGM MAY HOLD ON TO IFR
THROUGH 18Z BUT DECIDED THERE IS A GOOD ENOUGH CHANCE TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 18Z THIS PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR AFTER MORNING IFR
RESTRICTIONS ON TUESDAY. MORNING FOG IN THE FAVORABLE AREAS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, CAUSING LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...AJG/JTC
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