573  
FXUS61 KBGM 231909  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
309 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS  
WEEK BRINGING ROUNDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING IN SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION BY  
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT  
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE  
AREA SATURDAY. PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKES ERIE  
AND ONTARIO WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA  
AS A COOL, CANADIAN AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES  
AROUND 0 TO 2C STREAMS OVER THE WARMER GREAT LAKES, WHICH HAVE  
WATER TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 13 TO 15C. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN  
THE FLOW NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP SHIFT RAIN  
SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM  
THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR AND ACROSS MORE OF CNY AND THE TWIN  
TIERS BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. WE'LL SEE  
SOMETHING SIMILAR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER EMBEDDED  
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND THE FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE  
NORTHWESTERLY, SENDING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS  
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR INTO THE TWIN  
TIERS AND CATSKILLS.  
 
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. WITH A MORE  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW, IT WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS  
CNY COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS TOMORROW RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER 40S TO THE LOW 50S, WHILE MUCH OF NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN  
CATSKILLS ARE IN THE LOW AND MID 50S. LOWS WILL BE BACK INTO THE  
LOW AND MID 30S FOR MOST FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT UPPER 20S TOWARD THE  
TUG HILL, AND WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN TO AROUND -3  
TO -4C, LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS CAN MIX WITH AND EVEN CHANGE  
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CNY AND NORTHERN  
ONEIDA COUNTY, BUT NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT  
OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START  
TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD. WITH WINDS STILL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND  
THE COOL AIR ALOFT, ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL  
POSSIBLE SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR CNY. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A  
LARGELY DRY DAY. A SHORTWAVE DOES DROP IN FROM THE NORTH, BUT  
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS DAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LAKE EFFECT  
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY. AS HIGH  
PRESSURE SETTLES IN NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE FLOW BECOMES  
MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD  
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE  
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TREND COLDER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
IN AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO  
BE MAINLY IN THE 30S, WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT FALLS BACK MAINLY INTO  
THE 20S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER  
EASTERN QUEBEC MONDAY AND MUCH OF TUESDAY KEEPING OUR AREA  
LARGELY DRY. MID-TO-LATE WEEK IS WHERE UNCERTAINTY RETURNS WITH  
THE FORMATION OF A BROAD STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS  
SOME QUESTION TO ITS PLACEMENT AND ULTIMATE TRACK, BUT IT MAY  
BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KAVP THROUGH THE NEXT 24  
HOURS (AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY), THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS  
ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH  
MOST OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR, KRME, AND KBGM. THERE  
WILL ALSO BE SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AT KRME  
AND KSYR, WHICH MAY BRING SOME BRIEF VISBY RESTRICTIONS AS  
WELL.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH  
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL  
NY TERMINALS.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK  
NEAR TERM...DK  
SHORT TERM...DK  
LONG TERM...DK  
AVIATION...BJG  
 
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