687
FXUS61 KBGM 282323
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
723 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
2) A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING, USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR TONIGHT WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD TOMORROW SETTING UP A NICE
START TO THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF, WE'LL BE
UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S, IT WILL BE A VERY
COMFORTABLE DAY.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY STALL NEAR THE
AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT PUSH THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
SOME DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW
BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH COULD SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY ROBUST STORMS
MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY IMPULSES ALOFT,
AS TEMPERATURES WOULD TREND A BIT WARMER AND DEW POINTS COULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 60S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SEEM TO KEEP THE
500MB FLOW MORE ZONAL DURING THIS TIME, SO IT'S A TREND TO
WATCH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S, WHILE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S TO THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S DURING
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS,
CLEAR SKIES, AND MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD LEAD TO
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. VALLEY FOG
SEEMS LIKELY THOUGH FOG MAY SPREAD OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEYS AS
WELL. WITH THIS UPDATE, ELM HAS THE BEST CHANCE. FOR RME, ITH,
AND BGM, TEMPO GROUPS WERE ADDED FOR THE FOG THAT WAS INTRODUCED
WITH THE LAST UPDATE. CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE HIGH THOUGH
CONDITIONS MAY BE TOO DRY FOR FOG TO REACH THIS OTHER
TERMINALS. FOG BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
TO ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND 13Z. ONCE WINDS CALM DOWN THIS
EVENING, SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK/MPK
AVIATION...BTL
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