773
FXUS61 KBGM 151132
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
632 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL BE MILD FOR MOST OF THE REGION THOUGH RAIN MOVES IN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY, LEADING TO RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE DRY THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT, SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 40S AND 50S. BECAUSE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NON-DIRUNAL, SOME LOCATIONS, LIKE THOSE IN THE
TUG HILL/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS, WILL NOT SEE THEIR
WARMEST TEMPERATURES UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TODAY. EVEN THOUGH SOME
AREAS WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM UP THAN OTHERS, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN. ANY FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO BE EAST OF OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). THESE MILDER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO FALL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BUT ONLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHWESTERLY, PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO LAKE EFFECT AS THE
STEADIER RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
STAY ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS PERIOD, PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AS
MAINLY RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY DROP IN AS 850MB TEMPS GO FROM
-2C IN THE MORNING TO -8C BY THE END OF THE DAY. AS THE COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN, RAIN TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN JUST SNOW.
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY, STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND STRONGER
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SQUALL-LIKE SNOW SHOWERS. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY, SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE STABLE LATE
EVENING THOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN PRESENT.
COLD, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS DURING THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM
LESS THAN AN INCH TO 4+ INCHES. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FROM
CAYUGA TO MADISON COUNTY BUT SOUTH OF THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR.
AS MENTIONED, WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO MONDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FOR MOST OF THE REGION THIS
PERIOD, BUT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXCEED 35 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS WERE BUMPED UP ABOVE GUIDANCE USING A BLEND OF
NBM AND NBM 90TH PERCENTILE.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE 30S AND 40S SUNDAY MORNING BUT
CONTINUOUSLY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH LOWS
THEN BACK IN THE 20S. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS, CONDITIONS WILL BE
BLUSTERY AS WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST, THE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST BY MIDWEEK AND THE COLDEST AIR RETREATS
NORTHWARD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD CUTOFF ANY REMAINING LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. IN ADDITION, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION DESPITE THE DRIER DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WHILE RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN P-TYPE
IF ANY PRECIP CAN FALL, FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A LOW WILL CROSS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND PUSH
A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
COULD MOVE IN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS
HIGH PRESSURE ROUND UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. IF THE TREND KEEPS THE
TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES, THAT WILL RESULT IN MILDER
CONDITIONS AND JUST RAIN. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY, NBM WAS
FAVORED FOR POPS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THIS
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH CLOUDS FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, BY THIS AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST, ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS...DOWN TO MVFR AND FUEL ALT
BETWEEN ABOUT 20-23Z. STILL CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE TEMPORARY
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN 23Z AND 04Z BEFORE THE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT SHIFT TO THE WEST AND CEILING HEIGHTS RISE TO MVFR
WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER 04-06Z. THERE COULD ALSO BE A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN 20Z AND
00Z...AT ELM, ITH, BGM AND AVP...BUT STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO ADD TO TAFS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER 5 KTS THIS MORNING
THROUGH 18Z. WINDS INCREASE TO 7-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED FOR A 4-7 HR
WINDOW BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
DAY...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN THE LATE-DAY
SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH
RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE; ESPECIALLY CNY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK
SHORT TERM...BTL/DK
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...BJT/MJM
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