949
FXUS61 KBGM 110603
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
203 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLY WARM TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
SETTLE IN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
2) A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK. A FRONT LIKELY BRINGS
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST
NEAR THE WYOMING VALLEY, AS EVIDENT BY A MOISTURE GRADIENT SEEN
ON THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS, WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, PWATS ARE STILL ESTIMATED
TO BE AROUND 1.00-1.30 INCHES, SO THERE IS SOME MOISTURE STILL
LINGERING AROUND WHICH CAN AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW AREAS
OF FOG. OTHERWISE, MOST PLACES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY QUIET
TODAY WITH SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN, MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW ROUGHLY
ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY. THIS CAN LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
INITIATION OF ANY SHOWER OR STORM LIKELY TO BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NY, CATSKILLS AND NE PA AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH
WHICH THE CAMS SEEM TO BE ON BOARD WITH. DESPITE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEING TO THE SOUTH BY THIS POINT, IT'S STILL CLOSE
ENOUGH WITH ITS LINGERING MOISTURE THAT NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR
STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S, BUT IT WILL BE
COMFORTABLY WARM AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE
THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BUILDING HEAT DOME OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
STARTS TO EXPAND AND SHIFT EAST LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
500MB HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 594DM TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE
SUNNY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DEW POINTS LOOK TO MIX OUT
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
DAYTIME HIGHS TO SURGE UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THIS
WILL BE CLOSE TO DAILY RECORD HIGHS, AND BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-JULY. THE CORE OF THE TRULY EXTREME HEAT
LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. A TROUGH AND NW FLOW
DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND PERSISTS INTO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR LATE WEEK. THE WEATHER
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AT
LEAST THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY). THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL
VISBY FLUCTUATIONS TO MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING AT KELM AND/OR
KITH, SO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT THOSE TWO TERMINALS. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
AT KAVP AND THEREFORE INCLUDED -SHRA AT KAVP FROM 20Z TO 00Z.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER, BUT THE CHANCES
WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH POSSIBLE MORNING
FOG AT KELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK/MJM
AVIATION...BJG
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