542
FXUS61 KBGM 141847
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SLIGHT TREND NORTH WITH COASTAL LOW TRACK BRINGS SOME HIGHER
POPS INTO THE POCONOS AND POSSIBLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COASTAL LOW WILL EITHER BE A NEAR MISS OR JUST GRAZE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH EARLY TO MIDWEEK, BUT
THEN TREND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN, SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL WINTER LONG, MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
HARD TIME ADJUSTING WITH A TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.
THIS HAS LED TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE MID TO LONG RANGE
FORECAST (DAYS 3-7). THIS NEXT COASTAL SYSTEM IS NO DIFFERENT,
AND NOW THAT WE ARE WITHIN 36 HOURS, WE HAVE SEEN THE FORECAST
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW SHIFT NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT JUST 24 HOURS AGO, THIS SYSTEM WAS A COMPLETE MISS
FOR OUR AREA, WITH POSSIBLY JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE PASSING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.
THAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CAME ASHORE THE WASHINGTON COAST
YESTERDAY EVENING, SO FOR THE FIRST TIME, WEATHER MODELS CAN
ACTUALLY GET SOME SAMPLED UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA ON IT. THIS
WAVE WILL RACE ACROSS THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND NOW
PHASE WITH OUR SOUTHERN SYSTEM AND DEVELOP A STRONGER COASTAL
LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW NIGHT. THE TIMING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE AMPLITUDE WILL EVENTUALLY
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THIS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND THEN
TRACKS. STILL, AT THIS TIME, EVEN WITH THE STORM SHIFTING
NORTHWARD, IT IS STILL A NEAR MISS FOR OUR AREA, WITH A 1 TO 3
INCH SNOW FOR THE POCONOS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND A COATING
OF LIGHT SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS THE TWIN TIERS. AT THIS TIME, THE
THINKING IS THAT ANY FURTHER SHIFT NORTH WILL BE SLIGHT, IF AT
ALL, BEING WE ARE NOW JUST 36 HOURS OUT. THIS IS BECAUSE WE ARE
GETTING GOOD SAMPLING INTO THE MODELS NOW WITH THE WAVE COMING
ASHORE AND THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE INGREDIENTS AT PLAY. NBM IS LAGGING BEHIND WITH
THIS SHIFT NORTHWARD, SO LEANED ON CURRENT 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS FOR THE FORECAST. DECIDED TO BUMP UP POPS FROM
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO NOW LIKELY AND INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ACROSS NE PA INTO THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. STILL
LOOKING AT AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WE COULD SEE
TOTALS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE POCONOS IF ANY FURTHER
NORTH MOVEMENT IS NOTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AT THIS TIME AND
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT HOW MUCH SO
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WHILE IT INITIALLY LOOKED LIKE A
RIDGE WOULD SET UP OVER PART OF EASTERN CONUS, MODELS ARE
TRENDING TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WOULD FAVOR COOLER AIR
OCCASIONALLY DIPPING BACK SOUTH OVER PARTS OR ALL OF THE REGION.
WITH THAT SAID, MONDAY IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOW TO
MID-40S AND TUESDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN
AROUND 50 IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY BOTH DAYS, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL LOOK TO DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WHICH WILL SLOW THE SNOW MELT OVERNIGHT
AND IN THE EARLY MORNING.
THEN MIDWEEK, A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING WELL EAST OVER OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH DEPENDING ON THE WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP, THIS
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A WINTRY MIX OR SNOW THAT COULD POSSIBLY
INCLUDE LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
COLDER AND SNOWIER WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS
AND 12Z CMC MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
ENSEMBLE/NBM GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IN TIME, TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, COLDER AIR DIPS SOUTH AS TEMPERATURES TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM THE PEAK WARMTH EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AS CONDITIONS WARM, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL HELP MELT SNOW BUT OF THERE
IS ANY RAIN AS WELL, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO DISLODGE ICE
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS MVFR/FUEL ALT CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF VFR POSSIBLE AT ELM AND BGM EARLY
EVENING. MVFR AND FUEL ALT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD, TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY ALLOW CEILINGS TO
LOWER TO IFR ACROSS CNY. CONFIDENCE IN THE IFR REMAINS LOW, SO
TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TIMING.
OTHERWISE AVP ES EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT... WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN OR WINTRY MIX.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...ES/JTC
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