608
FXUS61 KBGM 092321
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
721 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED TONIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES WERE INCREASED
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN ADDED FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MORE MINOR
FLOODING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT LEADS TO
RUNOFF.
3) TEMPERATURES THEN TREND COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A SLIGHT
WARM UP SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG.
SIMILARLY TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT, A RANGE OF TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ELEVATION DIFFERENCES THANKS TO A SHALLOW
INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS INVERSION WILL TRAP MOISTURE,
LEADING TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING UP SOON AFTER SUNRISE.
SKIES WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL HELP LEAD TO EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MOST SEEING 60S
FOR HIGHS THOUGH SOME IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE LOW 70S. SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. WHERE SKIES
WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THE LONGEST, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY
AS A WARM FRONT SITS NORTH OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM
AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND 70S. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE A FACTOR THOUGH AND COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN FORECASTED. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CAP IN PLACE. SPC CLIPS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH A
MARGINAL RISK ON THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER AS THE SET UP LOOKS SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
WEEKEND WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND
THE FRONT IS LATE TO MOVE THROUGH. WITH THE WARM CONDITIONS AND RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
ISSUES AS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY STILL HAVE OVER A FOOT OF SNOWPACK.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, MUCH COLDER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND
IT ON THURSDAY. AS IT EXITS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH.
COOL, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND OVER INTO THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE STRONG
AROUND THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT THANKS TO TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS. AS A RESULT, WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S ON
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEYOND THURSDAY, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK, SO
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE ALSO UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE FAVOR JUST RAIN AND SNOW. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WARM UP ON SUNDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A MIXED BACK OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES AS RAIN, SNOW, AND WINTRY MIX WOULD ALL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE AND CEILINGS LOWER NEAR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE FOR SYR AND RME, WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FIRST TO THESE TERMINALS, BUT CLOSE TO THE END OF
THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
BORDERLINE LLWS FOR RME AND ELM BETWEEN 00Z AND 08Z THIS EVENING
AS WELL.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT RME,
SYR AND ITH WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND; VFR
ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN EXPECTED WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...BECOMING COOLER WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. SOME WET SNOW CAN POSSIBLY MIX IN IN AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS TEMPERATURES FALL.
FRIDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM CAN LEAD TO THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY...LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR THE NY TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...KL
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