024
FXUS61 KBGM 231817
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
117 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FOR
CENTRAL NY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS
OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF SURGE OF COLDER AIR EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD. THERE IS NW FLOW OFF
THE LAKES, BUT T850 WILL ONLY DIP TO ABOUT -6C AND THIS PRODUCE
ONLY A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE. HOWEVER, A FEW OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS IN CNY COULD END UP SEEING A LIGHT COATING
TO 1 INCH OF SNOW BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL
PLATEAU OF N. ONEIDA COUNTY AND ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1800 FEET FOR
THE REST OF CENTRAL NY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
REMAIN FAIRLY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S, WITH
MANY OF THE LOW ELEVATION LOCATIONS STAYING ABOVE FREEZING IN
THE MID-30S.
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
STRATUS CLOUDS AROUND MONDAY MORNING, BUT RIDGING BUILDS THROUGH
THE DAY AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
THE RIDGE WILL CREST OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH T850 GETTING ABOVE +5C. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT, BUT THINKING ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OFF UNTIL LATER TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WARM FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STEADIER RAIN IS MOST LIKELY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE, TUESDAY
WILL BE OVERCAST, BUT MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID- 40S TO LOWER
50S AND A STEADY SOUTH WIND CONTINUING AT 8-15 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY
DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
CLOUDY, BUT VERY WARM, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE WELL
INTO THE 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOW 60S.
RAY CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
THE TIMING OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION WILL
LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. 850MB
TEMPERATURES SHARPLY FALL TO AROUND -9C BEFORE DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT; EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT. LOWS DO DIP DOWN BELOW FREEZING IN
MANY LOCATIONS, RANGING FROM THE MID-20S TO LOWER 30 IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
***LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY***
INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE FOR A WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS INITIAL FETCH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MOSTLY WEST OF OUR AREA, BUT EVENTUALLY THE FLOW
WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING DAY ACTUALLY COME OFF OF
LAKE ERIE AND SPREAD INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY
WITH THE 240-260 DEGREE FLOW CURRENTLY FORECAST. IN THIS TYPE
OF FLOW THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND REMAINS NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA, BUT IF THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY SOONER, THEN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW MAY ENTER NORTHERN ONEIDA AND ONONDAGA BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW FLOW VEERING WESTERLY
OR EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMEFRAME FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN OUR CWA. 850MB TEMPERATURES HOVER BETWEEN ABOUT
-10C AND -12C, AND EARLY MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE EXTENDING
UP TO AND BEYOND 700MB. FLOW EXTENDS BACK ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY
AND A LAKE TO LAKE CONNECTION IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 7" OF SNOW IN 48 HOURS (ENDING 7
AM EST SATURDAY) ARE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AT
60% AND ONONDAGA, MADISON AND SOUTHERN ONEIDA AT 30-40%. AGAIN,
EXACT TIME AND DETAILS WITH LAKE EFFECT BAND PLACEMENTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. DUE TO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL TOTALS, A MENTION HAS BEEN MADE IN THE
HWO AT THIS TIME, AS IT COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY OR POST HOLIDAY
TRAVEL.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TURN MUCH COLDER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND; WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 20S TO UPPER TEENS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY FRIDAY AND
WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 10S TO SINGLE DIGITS.
BY SATURDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE REGION AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW
COMING TO AN END. HOWEVER, A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN INCOMING
WARM FRONT AND WITH THE COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE THE PREVIOUS
DAYS, THIS COULD LEAD TO A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION AS WE WRAP
UP THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IS BRINGING
REDUCED RESTRICTIONS TO MAINLY RME AND SYR, WITH SOME OF THESE
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EXPECTED INTERMITTENTLY AT BGM AND ITH. MVFR
AND FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE RAIN SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...KL
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