451  
FXUS61 KBGM 241035  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
635 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN GIVE WAY  
TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL  
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM  
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MEMORIAL DAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE SUNRISE UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR  
TRENDS WITH THE STRATUS DECK LOCATED FROM BINGHAMTON AND POINTS  
TO THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE, FORECAST ON TRACK.  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE  
REGION TODAY BEFORE EXITING TONIGHT. HOWEVER, NORTHWEST FLOW  
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL BRING IN CLOUDS AND A SPOTTY SHOWER  
OR TWO THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE FINGER LAKES AND  
SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD. NE PA ALONG WITH THE ELMIRA AREAS  
LOOKS TO STAY JUST OUTSIDE THE CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL  
ONLY ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S FOR MOST  
SPOTS TODAY.  
 
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY THE EVENING HOURS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN  
PLACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT. AS A RESULT, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS  
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN DECENT GROUND MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT  
WINDS BEFORE SUNRISE.  
 
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT:  
 
A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND BE  
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH LIFT AND  
MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SOME  
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY  
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER  
FAIRLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM SO IF MORE INSTABILITY THAN MODELED IS  
REALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BECOME A CONCERN. THE  
HIGHEST CHANCES OF HAVING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
LOOKS TO BE FROM STEUBEN COUNTY INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION.  
HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE 70S. WITH SHOWERS AROUND AND A  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT  
LIKELY TO FALL MUCH AT NIGHT, STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S AND  
60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR SUNDAY.  
EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF  
OUR AREA, WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA GIVEN THE KINEMATICS IN PLACE. EXPECT  
THE COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS  
RIDGING STARTS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
RIDGING, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE  
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND  
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN  
THE 70S.  
 
THE RESPITE FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END  
AFTER MEMORIAL DAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM MID-AMERICA INTO THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PHASE WITH A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, A WARM FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, PROBABLY DURING THE  
DAY TUESDAY. EVEN THOUGH HOW FAR NORTH/EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT  
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT UPON THE LOCATION AND  
STRENGTH OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., INDICATIONS  
ARE IS SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
THE ODDS OF SEEING SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL  
RETURN AS THIS HAPPENS.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION, TEMPERATURES IN THE  
80S MIGHT BE SEEN IN OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAEFS DATA  
SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 2-3 STANDARD  
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS, THANKS TO RIDGING ANTICIPATED  
TO BE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. BASED ON THIS, AND  
ANTICIPATED 850 MB TEMPERATURES, I HAVE NUDGED WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST  
HIGHS UPWARD A SKOSH.  
 
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE  
AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW  
THE UPPER TROUGH (TO OUR WEST) TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A  
GOOD POSSIBILITY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE  
EXPECTED AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF  
THE FRONT, THERE COULD BE GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INSTABILITY  
AND THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. AND, AT LEAST RIGHT NOW, I WOULDN'T BE  
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER  
TROUGH FINISHES EJECTING ACROSS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A MVFR STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED AT ALL TERMINALS BUT KAVP AND  
KELM WITH KBGM AND KITH ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DECK. THIS  
STRATUS DECK WILL BE VERY STUBBORN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY  
BEFORE LIFTING AND BURNING OFF BETWEEN 18-22Z. ALTHOUGH BASED ON  
TRENDS THE LAST FEW HOURS THIS DECK MAY SCATTER OUT AT TIMES. THE  
PROBABILITIES FOR FUEL- ALTERNATE CEILINGS ARE LOWER WITH THIS  
TAF SET SO THE TEMPOS IN THE PREVIOUS SET WERE REMOVED. WIND  
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS  
WELL. PATCHY FOG WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARD  
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, SOME SHOWERS WITH LOWERING  
CEILINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED  
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A STRAY SHOWER OR  
THUNDERSTORM MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF RESTRICTION AT SOME TERMINALS SUNDAY  
AND/OR TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MWG  
NEAR TERM...MWG  
SHORT TERM...DAB  
LONG TERM...DAB  
AVIATION...MWG  
 
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