852
FXUS61 KBGM 251738
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CLOUD AND SHOWER COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH FOG OVERNIGHT.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A BRIEF LULL IN WET WEATHER
WEDNESDAY, THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DRYING BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEPART THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY ANY SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO FOG FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50'S
WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS REACH 80.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LOOKS PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT FOR A ROUND OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TWO CLUSTERS GET GOING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ONE OVER NEPA/SULLIVAN NY AS TERRAIN
INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE SECOND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHERE LIFT IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER THE MODELED ENVIRONMENT STILL SHOWS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELED CAPE
RANGES FROM 750-1500 J/KG WITH AROUND 30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WIND CONCERN. ENSEMBLE
DATA IS TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
NEPA/SULLIVAN NY FRIDAY LINGERING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS A LITTLE LONGER. HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS STILL LOOK BE AROUND 80 MOST DAYS WITH
THURSDAY AND SUNDAY THE WARMEST DAYS WITH MORE TYPICAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS WELL IN THE 50'S AND LOW 60'S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS MVFR/MVFR FUEL ALT CIGS TO LINGER
ACROSS A FEW OF OUR TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LAKE EFFECT RAIN MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS
AT TIMES.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY IMPACTING
ELM/BGM/RME WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KTS AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR, RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH MORNING FOG.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS WITH
AN INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...ES/MJM
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