290
FXUS61 KBGM 180803
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
303 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM WEATHER RETURNS TODAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN RETURNS TONIGHT
AND A LINE OF GUTSY SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS BRINGS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING, ADVECTING
IN WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE WARM TODAY, WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. EVEN THOUGH 850MB TEMPS OF
8-9C WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 50S, THE VAST
SNOWPACK OVER THE AREA SHOULD MODIFY THE WARM AIR ADVECTING IN,
KEEPING TEMPS BELOW 50. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE LATE MORNING
AS THE INCOMING TROUGH BUTTS UP AGAINST THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY BY THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS THE DEEPENING LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
WITH A STRENGTHENING 250 MB JET. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN FROM 2
DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS; ONE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES UP THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE SECOND FROM THE
WEST AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW
APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH
WARM TEMPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT VERY WARM AIR
INTO THE REGION, WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM THE
LOW 40S TO UPPER 40S LOW 50S BEFORE SUNRISE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW 850 MB WINDS TOP OUT AT NEAR 70-75 MPH BUT A STRONG INVERSION
BELOW THESE HIGH WINDS SHOULD KEEP THESE GUSTS FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. CLIMATOLOGICALLY, IT IS USUALLY HARD FOR SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO BREAK THROUGH THESE INVERSIONS UNLESS THE INVERSION
DROPS DOWN TO THE LEVEL OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS, OR WE CAN GET
SOME SW FLOW ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WHICH WOULD CAUSE
DOWNSLOPING THAT COULD HELP BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE CAMS ARE HANDLING
THE INVERSION LEVEL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. THE
CAMS ARE SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF STRONG SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CAMS ARE NOT
SHOWING ANY INSTABILITY WITH THESE SHOWERS, BUT WITH THE STRONG
FORCING FROM THE FRONT AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET
STREAK SITTING OVER THE AREA, WE COULD GET SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THAT WOULD BUILD HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY WILL SEE TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR IS
ADVECTED IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SHORT LULL IN
THE STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT BY
LATE MORNING, STRONG WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST WITH 15-25MPH
GUSTING TO 50MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR OVER THE
LAKES AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA,
LIMITING THE SNOW DURATION. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HANG
ON A LITTLE LONGER, 1-3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A QUICK RIDGE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15MPH.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION FROM 7PM THURSDAY TO 1SM SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE, WE WILL BE MONITORING THE DEVELOPING SITUATION TO SEE IF
WE NEED TO INCREASE WINDS DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME
TO CHANGE ANY OF THE HEADLINES WE HAVE OUT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE PATTERN SHIFTS AS WE SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD INTO
THE SW US, MOVING EASTWARD AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. THIS PUTS
MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE US WITH
NO STRONG, DEEP TROUGHS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL SKIRT US TO THE NORTH AS THEY RIDE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THESE DISTURBANCES
SO THEY MAINLY WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, A PESKY DECK OF MVFR
CLOUDS IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
PICKING UP WELL ON. AS A RESULT, OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE AT ALL OF THE
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS, WITH KAVP LIKELY BEING THE ONLY TERMINAL
TO REMAIN VFR PRIOR TO SUNRISE. CLOSER TO 12Z, RESTRICTIONS AT
THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AND THEREFORE
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY, CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA.
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME IFR CLOSER TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD/06Z
FRIDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 25KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTS UP TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. LLWS LIKELY WAITS TO DEVELOP AT KAVP UNTIL THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BJG
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