830
FXUS61 KBGM 061825
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
225 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STILL ANTICIPATING SOME
PATCHY FOG AND/OR FROST TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
ACTIVE AND RELATIVELY COOL PATTERN CONTINUING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COOL AND MOIST PATTERN SETS UP TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST AND FOG.
2) THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
3) A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTER A
BRIEF WARM UP WHICH COULD TRIGGER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AIR SETTLES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE PERSISTENT RAIN THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
SINCE LAST NIGHT IS FINALLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST.
APPROXIMATELY A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. AS THE RAIN AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE OUT OF THE REGION,
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL TAKE ITS PLACE STARTING TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE HUDSON BAY
IS IN PLACE AND IS ACTING TO PULL SOUTHWARD A RELATIVELY COLD AIR
MASS FROM NORTHERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THE COLDER AIR...850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -2 TO -3 DEG
C...ARRIVING TONIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG AND/OR FROST IN CENTRAL
NY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S IN NY AND INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN NE PA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW
WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN LATER TONIGHT AND MIXES OUT THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY MORE COOLING AND EVENTUAL FROST FORMATION. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE PATCHY OR ISOLATED
LOCATIONS OF FROST, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD
FROST IN OUR ACTIVE FINGER LAKE ZONES TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY AND CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET
WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF POTENTIAL FROST. THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH A LONGER DURATION OF
CLEARING WHICH WILL LEAD TO MORE COOLING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF CNTRL NY
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN NE PA. THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST
WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER AND FROST ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND THE WYOMING VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL ROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE PARENT
LONG WAVE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE INITIAL
WAVE SWINGING THROUGH FRIDAY SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND
LATE AFTERNOON AND THE MORE POTENT WAVE RIDING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE NORTH-SOUTH TRACK OF THIS WAVE WITH SOME MEMBERS OF OUR
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE
THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS BRING THE RAIN RIGHT THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP WITH THE CONSENSUS AND THE HIGHER POPS
ON SATURDAY. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
AND RELATIVELY UNIMPACTFUL...WITH GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO HALF AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A SOLID RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, BUT DEW POINT VALUES
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS IS REALLY GOING TO
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SOLAR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL OCCUR SUN AFTERNOON, AND THUS CUT INTO
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE COUNTERACTING FEATURE WILL BE
THE STRONGLY FORCED TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION THAT
WILL SUPPLY THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR ASCENT TO SUPPORT
VERTICAL MOTION AND A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
HESITATE TO MENTION ANY SEVERE STORMS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
VERY DRY NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT IT OBVIOUSLY CANNOT
BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL RETURN TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL WARM SHIFT BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
STEADY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON TO
LINGERING SPOTTY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST.
CEILINGS HAVE DROPPED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MAINLY IFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS, BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME OCCASIONAL FLUCTUATIONS
IN BOTH CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT ALL TERMINALS SO CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE A BIT INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, IF WE GET ENOUGH CLEARING, THEN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR FOG TO SETTLE IN FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AROUND
ITH, ELM AND BGM SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD
AT THIS TIME.
AFTER ANY POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR; ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE AROUND THE CNY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY..COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH
INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJT
AVIATION...DK/MPK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page