451
FXUS61 KBGM 241035
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN GIVE WAY
TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR MEMORIAL DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE SUNRISE UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR
TRENDS WITH THE STRATUS DECK LOCATED FROM BINGHAMTON AND POINTS
TO THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE, FORECAST ON TRACK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION TODAY BEFORE EXITING TONIGHT. HOWEVER, NORTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL BRING IN CLOUDS AND A SPOTTY SHOWER
OR TWO THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE FINGER LAKES AND
SOUTHERN TIER NORTHEASTWARD. NE PA ALONG WITH THE ELMIRA AREAS
LOOKS TO STAY JUST OUTSIDE THE CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL
ONLY ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS TODAY.
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY THE EVENING HOURS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT. AS A RESULT, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN DECENT GROUND MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS BEFORE SUNRISE.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT:
A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SOME
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
FAIRLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM SO IF MORE INSTABILITY THAN MODELED IS
REALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BECOME A CONCERN. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF HAVING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE FROM STEUBEN COUNTY INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE 70S. WITH SHOWERS AROUND AND A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
LIKELY TO FALL MUCH AT NIGHT, STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S AND
60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR SUNDAY.
EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
OUR AREA, WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA GIVEN THE KINEMATICS IN PLACE. EXPECT
THE COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
RIDGING STARTS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RIDGING, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN
THE 70S.
THE RESPITE FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
AFTER MEMORIAL DAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM MID-AMERICA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO PHASE WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, A WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, PROBABLY DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. EVEN THOUGH HOW FAR NORTH/EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL ULTIMATELY BE DEPENDENT UPON THE LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., INDICATIONS
ARE IS SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE ODDS OF SEEING SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
RETURN AS THIS HAPPENS.
IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION, TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S MIGHT BE SEEN IN OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NAEFS DATA
SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES COULD REACH 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS, THANKS TO RIDGING ANTICIPATED
TO BE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. BASED ON THIS, AND
ANTICIPATED 850 MB TEMPERATURES, I HAVE NUDGED WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST
HIGHS UPWARD A SKOSH.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLIDES EAST AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE UPPER TROUGH (TO OUR WEST) TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
EXPECTED AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT, THERE COULD BE GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INSTABILITY
AND THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. AND, AT LEAST RIGHT NOW, I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH FINISHES EJECTING ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A MVFR STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED AT ALL TERMINALS BUT KAVP AND
KELM WITH KBGM AND KITH ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DECK. THIS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE VERY STUBBORN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
BEFORE LIFTING AND BURNING OFF BETWEEN 18-22Z. ALTHOUGH BASED ON
TRENDS THE LAST FEW HOURS THIS DECK MAY SCATTER OUT AT TIMES. THE
PROBABILITIES FOR FUEL- ALTERNATE CEILINGS ARE LOWER WITH THIS
TAF SET SO THE TEMPOS IN THE PREVIOUS SET WERE REMOVED. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
WELL. PATCHY FOG WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS IS ALSO POSSIBLE TOWARD
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, SOME SHOWERS WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF RESTRICTION AT SOME TERMINALS SUNDAY
AND/OR TUESDAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...DAB
LONG TERM...DAB
AVIATION...MWG
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