603
FXUS61 KBGM 191428
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1028 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A CHILLY DAWN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A SUNNY AND MUCH
MILDER DAY. HOWEVER, SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
SEND TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND, INCLUDING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHERN
TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
1030 AM UPDATE...NOT MUCH TO UPDATE THIS MORNING WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND RISING TEMPERATURES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE TEMPS AND WINDS OTHERWISE GRIDS ARE GOOD AS IS.
345 AM UPDATE...
IT IS A QUICKLY-MOVING PATTERN, AND SO OUR BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE
DAY OF RESPITE WILL SWITCH TO A SHOWERY COLD FRONT AS WE HEAD
INTO SATURDAY.
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING, THE GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE WHICH
ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING. FOR THOSE
NEPA COUNTIES, IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
HAS PRODUCED THE WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S NOW BEING
OBSERVED, SO THAT SHOULD DO IT FOR ALL FROST-FREEZE PRODUCTS
UNTIL THE SPRING.
DESPITE THE COLD START, THE SURFACE HIGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SHUNTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, AND RETURN FLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE AS WELL AS RIDGING ALOFT IS RESULTING IN STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL BEGIN TO BE REALIZED NOT LONG AFTER
DAWN, AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HELPS TO MIX DOWN THE WARM AIR. THE
RAPID BOUNCE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
50S-LOWER 60S. THE ADDITIONAL HELP OF DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WIND
COULD EVEN BRING A FEW SPOTS INTO THE MID 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND PERHAPS SYRACUSE.
A TRIO OF INBOUND WAVES, HOWEVER, WILL ABRUPTLY CHANGE THINGS.
THE FIRST ONE WILL ZIP THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL SERVE TO
MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE AND EVEN CAUSE A QUICK BATCH OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TO PASS BY, WITH POCONOS-CATSKILLS HAVING THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR THAT. RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT HOWEVER
WILL BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH, WHERE IT OCCURS. ANY SHOWERS
WILL FIRST HAVE TO OVERCOME A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS; IT WILL BE ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS WHERE THE RADAR
BARK IS WORSE THAN THE BITE SINCE MUCH OF IT WILL BE VIRGA,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WIND WHICH ACTUALLY COULD BE
SOMEWHAT STIFF IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY, TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY DROP TO MID-UPPER 40S FOR LOWS.
THE SECOND AND THIRD WAVES WILL TAKE THE FORM OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND THEN THE COLD FRONT ITSELF, BOTH OF WHICH WILL PASS
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. TRUTH BE TOLD, IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT A FOURTH WAVE - THE MAIN SHARP DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH AXIS - IS SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE ON
THAT IS DISCUSSED BELOW. BUT FOR SATURDAY ITSELF, TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY REACH LOWER- MID 50S FOR CENTRAL NY AND MID-UPPER 50S
FOR NORTHEAST PA, BEFORE THE START OF COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS
TO TAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER AIR
ALOFT OUTPACING LOWER LEVELS, LAPSE RATES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
STEEPEN WHICH WILL ALLOW MIXING DOWN OF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
WEST, VEERING NORTHWEST LATE. PEAK GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH CAN BE
ANTICIPATED AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OF ABOUT ONE TO TWO TENTHS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, THOUGH
SOME SPOTS THAT END UP BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS MAY ONLY GET
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
4 AM UPDATE... ANOTHER EARLY TASTE OF WINTER THIS PERIOD.
IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, A FAIRLY STRONG
AND DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE, SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL LINGER, WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALSO CONTINUING IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE
LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO VEER INTO A 310-330 TRAJECTORY WITH TIME, THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR AN EARLY SEASON LAKE-EFFECT EVENT WITH FINGER
LAKES ENHANCEMENT. EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY
STILL BE MILD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT AS TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY COOL OVERNIGHT, SNOW WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY IS WIDE ENOUGH FOR SOME 1-3" SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN ONONDAGA, SOUTHERN CAYUGA, CORTLAND,
TOMPKINS, AND NORTHERN TIOGA COUNTIES, PARTICULARLY DOWNWIND OF
OWASCO AND CAYUGA LAKES.
ELSEWHERE, SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK
INTO MORE OF A WESTERLY ORIENTATION, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALSO
APPROACHING. AS A RESULT, SNOW SHOWERS OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN/DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. STILL
THOUGH, AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.
LOWS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S-MID
30S RANGE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS NOT RECOVERING MUCH, ONLY
REACHING THE MID 30S-LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
415 AM UPDATE... NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST NEXT
WEEK, AS THE MODELS STILL DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY, WITH THIS TROUGH
HAVING A TENDENCY TO LIFT OUT LATER IN THE WEEK.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MILDER AGAIN, WITH A SW FLOW DEVELOPING
ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MONDAY
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY, BUT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORESEEN TUESDAY, AS THE NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES IN.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER
AIR IS EXPECTED, WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. BY
THURSDAY, AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, HEIGHT RISES AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD
INITIATE ANOTHER TREND TOWARDS MILDER TEMPERATURES, WITH DRY
WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING, COURTESY OF PASSING
HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TO CONTEND WITH EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSYR-KELM-KITH-KRME, FROM
A WESTERLY JET OF 30-40 KNOTS NOT FAR OFF THE GROUND, UNTIL
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE
TO 8-12 KNOTS OUT OF THE SW WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LLWS WILL
ACTUALLY RETURN THIS EVENING KAVP-KRME AND POSSIBLY OTHER
TERMINALS. COLD FRONT WILL THEN BE APPROACHING 06Z-12Z
SATURDAY, WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
IN MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY NY TERMINALS. KITH IN
PARTICULAR, AND KBGM AT TIMES, PRONE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MDP
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