467  
FXUS61 KBGM 032314  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
714 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING,  
BRINGING WONDERFUL WEATHER FOR THE 4TH OF JULY AND INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
635 PM UPDATE...  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE REGION AND THE WATCH HAS  
BEEN CANCELLED.  
 
320 PM UPDATE...  
 
CLEARED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.  
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF  
BINGHAMTON THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
130 PM UPDATE...  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN  
THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
ALSO, LCL HEIGHTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA IS NOW SHOWING ABOUT 1250  
METERS, HOWEVER, WHERE CURRENT STORMS ARE IN THE FINGER LAKES  
REGION THE LCL HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER AND ALTHOUGH NOT  
EXPECTED, CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  
 
1230 PM FORECAST...  
 
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING  
OUT OF ONTARIO, CANADA AND INTO CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS  
WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION  
THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS  
NE PA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAS  
INCREASED INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE BASED  
CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND  
INTO NE PA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED V FROM ABOUT H850 TO  
THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN ANY  
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATING DCAPE  
VALUES OF 800 - 1000 J/KG, SO IT SHOULD BE A FAVORABLE  
ENVIRONMENT FOR THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.  
 
AT THIS TIME, THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO STILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO  
NE, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CELL ACROSS CENTRAL NY AS  
WELL. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SWINGS IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY THIS EVENING, MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE ABOVE 7C/KM,  
AND WITH HIGH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 - 50KT, LARGE HAIL  
COULD BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE  
TORNADO THREAT TODAY IS VERY LOW, AS LCL HEIGHTS ARE CLOSE TO 2K  
METERS WITH ALL THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LOW LEVEL  
HELICITY VALUES ARE ALSO WEAK. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A  
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-81 IN NY  
AND MUCH OF NEPA AND A MARGINAL RISK STILL EXISTS ELSEWHERE. IT  
IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,  
DEPENDING HOW CELL DEVELOPMENT EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR  
TWO.  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID  
EVENING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES BUILDING IN BEHIND  
IT. THE 4TH OF JULY WILL BE AN ABSOLUTELY WONDERFUL WEATHER  
DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. NW FLOW INTO THE AREA FROM  
CANADA WILL PROVIDE A WARM, DRY AIRMASS WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR  
MOST OF THE DAY. MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED SMOKE HIGH IN THE  
ATMOSPHERE DUE TO CANADIAN WILDFIRES, BUT LOOKING AT CURRENT  
UPSTREAM METSAT SHOWS THE SMOKE ISN'T AS THICK AS PREVIOUS  
WEEKS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70 TO LOW 80S AND LOWS  
DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S TOMORROW NIGHT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
1230 PM UPDATE...  
 
STUCK WITH NBM FORECAST WITH NO CHANGES AND HIGH PRESSURE  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE TO SEE HEAT  
ADVISORY CRITERIA (HI>= 95F) IN NY URBAN AREAS ON SUNDAY, BUT  
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN PA CRITERIA (HI>=100F).  
 
305 AM UPDATE  
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, WITH SUNNY SKIES,  
LOW TO MODERATE HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. NO CHANGES FOR SATURDAY  
NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE BUT IT WILL BE MORE  
HUMID AND MUGGY, WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES  
OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE  
LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL BRING HOT AND  
HUMID CONDITIONS AS 1000-500MB THICKNESSES REACH 579DM AND 850MB  
TEMPERATURES JUMP UP TO +19C. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS AFTERNOON  
HIGHS ON SUNDAY REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AREAWIDE.  
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 60S TO BRING HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOW/MID 90S IN THE  
VALLEYS. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GET CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA, AND IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE  
COMING DAYS.  
 
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED T'STORMS SUNDAY  
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES  
GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST...BUT OVERALL LIKELY STAYING PRECIPITATION  
FREE, BUT HUMID AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
1230 PM UPDATE...  
 
NO NOTABLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND  
STUCK WITH NBM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAT COULD BE AN ISSUE ON  
MONDAY, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT COULD LIMIT HEATING. THOSE SHOWERS  
AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY AS  
SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THAT  
FRONT, MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS WITH TIMING OF AN UPPER  
TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME, NBM BRINGS IN  
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS COULD  
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS IF THE UPPER TROUGH IS  
DELAYED OR LESS AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.  
 
305 AM UPDATE  
 
A RATHER ACTIVE SUMMER WEATHER PATTER IS SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF THE  
LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSED THROUGH THE AREA ON  
MONDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO  
THE AREA. DEEP LAYER, 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN  
20-30 KTS, WHICH IS MODEST, BUT COULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZED  
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN A POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE,  
AS MLCAPE REACHES 800-1500 J/KG.  
 
THE HEAT STILL REMAINS ON MONDAY, AS 850MB TEMPERATURES SURGE TO  
ABOUT +20C ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN  
THE MID-80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS OVER THE  
SOUTHERN TIER AND NE PA. DEW POINTS WILL BE QUITE HIGH IN THE MID-  
60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING THE HEAT INDEX TO  
THE UPPER 80S TO MID-90S...AND PERHAPS EVEN 95 TO 100 IN THE WYOMING  
VALLEY REGION.  
 
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY STALL OR WASHOUT NEAR THE  
TWIN TIERS FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY. DEW  
POINTS DON'T FALL VERY MUCH AT ALL, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT  
5 DEGREES LOWER AS LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TAKE HOLD. PERHAPS A FEW  
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF  
BINGHAMTON OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLY MILD. ANOTHER WEAK  
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH  
WARM AND HUMID TYPICAL MID SUMMER CONDITIONS. THERE IS INCREASING  
TIMING AND POSITION DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL  
GUIDANCE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS IN MIND,  
DECIDED TO KEEP THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE NBM ENSEMBLE  
WEIGHTED GUIDANCE. THIS BRINGS ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT  
THROUGH THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY, WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY  
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY, JUST A FEW  
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
 
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF  
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE CHANCES FOR FOG AT ELM  
AND BGM.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
 
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WITH  
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.  
 
 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...KL  
NEAR TERM...MPK  
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM  
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM  
AVIATION...KL  
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