889
FXUS61 KBGM 291812
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
212 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MORE FOG IN TONIGHT WITH THE RAIN AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS,
MAINLY FOCUSED MORE ON HIGHER TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING, BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY MORNING.
2) A COOL AIRMASS SETTLES INTO PLACE LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SCATTERED
SHOWERS, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY WITH A BROAD AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES, THOUGH INSTANTANEOUS RATES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
AN INCH PER HOUR AND LIKELY CLOSER TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND AN INCH AREA WIDE, WHICH IS LOW
ENOUGH THAT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN 2 AM AND 6
AM WITH RAINFALL TAPERING OFF BY SUNRISE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE REGION AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS, KEEPING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER OUR REGION
FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO
AROUND -5C FRIDAY NIGHT SO THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNY INTO THE CATSKILLS. IT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON RAIN SHOWERS LASTING AFTER DARK WITH THE LOSS
OF DAY TIME HEATING. AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN ADDED TO EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR DESTABILIZATION FROM THE COLD AIR ALOFT COUPLED
WITH THE STRONG MAY SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
LOW 30S SO WITH THE WYOMING VALLEY AND THE FINGER LAKES REGION
ENTERING THEIR GROWING SEASON, FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN
BRIEFLY MID NEXT WEEK BUT MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP 850 MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TAF SITES AND EVEN LOWER
TO IFR WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE EXACT
TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN, CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK TO
VFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/BJG
AVIATION...BJG/MWG
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