611
FXUS61 KBGM 041030
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
630 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DEW POINTS WERE LOWERED ON THURSDAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY
DRIER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE THAN SUGGESTED BY NBM GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
2) THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND LEAD TO DRY
AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ONCE THE FOG CLEARS THIS MORNING, SKIES
WILL BE SUNNY AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S. DEW POINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S, SO HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW.
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WHILE THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE COME WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WAVE OR TWO RIDING THIS RIDGE. DRY AIR IN PLACE LOOKS TO
KEEP THINGS DRY EARLY IN THE DAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF
THE COAST, THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WAVES MOVE THROUGH. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
SOLUTIONS AS THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH CONDITIONS STAYING DRY
WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. ALSO, THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND WHETHER OR NOT A CAP
HOLDS. EITHER WAY, THIS FORECAST WILL FAVOR THE MAJORITY OF MOST
GUIDANCE AND KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PRESENT.
MOISTURE INCREASES THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
REGION AND EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. PWATS WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES
OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION, MLCAPE IS MODELED TO BE 1000 TO 1500
J/KG. FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK THOUGH STRONG
ENOUGH FOR 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO BE 20 TO 30 KTS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND A FEW STRONG ONES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. DCAPE VALUES ARE HIGH IN MODEL SOUNDINGS, THOUGH WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE WON'T BE MUCH FOR WINDS TO
MIX DOWN. STILL, GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES AND RICH MOISTURE, IT
MAY BE POSSIBLE TO GET WET MICROBURSTS. SEEING THE LONG, SKINNY
CAPE, SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OF COURSE, WITH THIS MOISTURE-
RICH SYSTEM, THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE AHPS TOTAL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION
OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS IS 200 TO 400% ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY IN THE TWIN TIERS AND CATSKILLS REGIONS. DESPITE
A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS, IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENTS TO THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS LEADING UP TO THURSDAY.
THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL DRIFT EAST AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION, IT FLATTENS WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. WITH
HIGH PWATS, FAIRLY HIGH INSTABILITY, AND MODEST SHEAR, THE SAME
HAZARDS WILL BE IN PLACE. BASED ON GFS SOUNDINGS, THERE MAY BE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOWER MOVING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FOR
BOTH DAYS, WPC HAS HAD A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND, THOUGH FORCING WILL BE WEAKER AND MOISTURE IS BIT MORE
LIMITED. REMAINING IN THE ZONAL FLOW, A WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN, THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED AS PWATS ARE MODELED TO BE LOWER. INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT THOUGH SHEAR MAY BE WEAK, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONGER STORMS AT THIS TIME. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THEN SWEEPS THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, THOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING. THEN AS WE ENTER EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN, SO MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE THE STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST.
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. FOR EARLY AUGUST,
THIS NEAR AVERAGE THOUGH SOME DAYS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE. HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN FORECASTED.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VALLEY FOG WILL HANG AROUND FOR ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
SUNRISE BEFORE BURNING OFF. ELM AND BGM ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTED UNTIL AROUND 13Z. AFTERWARDS, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR; POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG AT ELM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER; ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MJM
AVIATION...KL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page