788
FXUS61 KBGM 200437
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1237 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS BEFORE A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT, AND A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN LATER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST SATURDAY ALONG WITH
THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN
THE AFTERNOON THAT MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN NY AND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN PA. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NEED TO OVERCOME
ANOTHER WEAK INVERSION ALOFT IN ORDER TO GENERATE UPDRAFTS ABOVE
10-15 KFT, SO THIS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, SO DECIDED TO JUST LEAVE IT AS
SHOWERS FOR NOW.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, BUT THE PATTERN STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...CLOSE TO 80 IN NE PA, AND DEW
POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S CLOSE TO 60...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASED SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY. COULD SEE A FEW
POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH NO PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM, SUCH AS A UPPER TROUGH/SHORT-WAVE OR COLD
FRONT AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR, CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LOW.
ON MONDAY, ATTENTION TURNS TO A DE-AMPLIFIED UPPER WAVE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN
ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR A BROAD AREA OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
THROUGH MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE REGION
WILL SEE AROUND 1" OF RAIN AND SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE
UP TO 2" OVER THIS 24 HR PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN
OUTLIER WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, SO WE
CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE CONSENSUS NORTHERLY TRACK OF
THE WARM FRONT/SFC LOW.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO/FLOODING ISSUES
WITH THIS RAIN, BUT WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW IT EVOLVES.
THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
RAINFALL RATES, SO SHORT-FUSED HYDRO CONCERNS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS ACTIVE, WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION, BUT RELATIVELY UN-IMPACTFUL WITH GENERALLY A
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST UNDER A MOSTLY
MILD THERMAL PATTERN AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME EXCEPTIONS.
ONGOING SHOWERS STILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF IMPACTING ELM, BGM,
AND AVP, WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. SINCE COVERAGE
HAS BECOME MORE ISOLATED, THERE IS NO MENTION OF RAIN AT THESE
LOCATIONS. MVFR TO FUEL ALT CEILINGS MOVE INTO RME AND SYR
TONIGHT. BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY, BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR.
GUSTY WINDS REMAIN PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THOUGH GUSTS OF 15+ KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TOMORROW, WINDS GUST TO AT LEAST 20 KTS ONCE
AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WINDS BECOMING CALM NEAR THE END OR
AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE BORDERLINE GIVEN THE
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS PRESENT, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WAS ADDED
TO THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS IN THE EVENT THAT THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHTLY CALMER WINDS AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR, ISOLATED SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
RAIN, RESTRICTIONS, AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION WITH SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJT/MPK
AVIATION...BTL
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