883
FXUS61 KBGM 161756
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK WAS REDUCED EVEN MORE AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. FOG WAS ADDED FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
2) A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAIN. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AND COOLER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA THOUGH WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
OF 8 TO 10 DEGREES, IT HAS TAKEN AWHILE FOR RAIN TO BE OBSERVED AT
THE GROUND. THAT SHOULD SOON CHANGE AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL PUSH
IN THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS MORE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY AND
HAVE SUNSHINE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
EVENTUALLY SPREAD OUT MORE LATER TODAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DRIVING THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE ADDED MOISTURE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER, FOG AND/OR LOW
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE PRESENT, THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
MODELS HAVE LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
SO THUNDER CHANCES WERE CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE. PWATS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, GOING FROM 1.5 TO
AROUND 2 INCHES LATE TODAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PA BUT THE CHANCES
FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING ARE LOW. FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE, WPC HAS
REDUCED THE DAY 1 ERO RISKS OVER OUR REGION EVEN MORE THAN THE
MORNING UPDATE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW, WEAK WAVES WILL TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND KICK OFF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. PWATS WILL BE LOWER THAN TODAY, SO ANY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT. MODELS HAVE SOME INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TOMORROW AND
WHILE ONGOING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL LIMIT HEATING, A COUPLE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MODELS TRY TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY THOUGH THERE WILL BE QUITE OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS. AREAS MORE SOUTH WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT
WARMING UP PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN SHOWERS. IF SO, THEN
INSTABILITY COULD INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CURRENTLY NOT SHOWING MUCH
INSTABILITY, SO THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW IN THE FORECAST.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND IT'S POSSIBLE SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND THEN DRIFT UP THE COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SPREAD IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST
WOULD FAVOR PASSING SHOWERS TO CLIP PARTS OF THE REGION. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL COME LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS MOISTENING OCCURS WITH THE PASSAGES OF A WARM FRONT LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING AND THEN A SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT, OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL
TERMINALS. ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT GENERALLY
ONLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND ADVERTISED IN THE TAFS SINCE
INSTABILITY WILL BE SO LIMITED. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST OF NOT ALL TERMINALS EVENTUALLY
ACHIEVING IFR CEILINGS AND PERHAPS AT TIMES VISIBILITY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW INTO MIDDAY,
WITH A FINAL SHOWERY COLD FRONT TAKING QUITE A WHILE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS EVENTUALLY
EXIT FOR A WINDOW OF IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR EARLY MORNING FOG, MAINLY AT KELM.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDER WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR OTHER THAN TYPICAL EARLY MORNING
FOG, ESPECIALLY KELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...MDP
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