981
FXUS61 KBGM 261816
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
216 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AREAS OF FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY HAS TRENDED DRIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IF ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT EAST OF THE
I81 CORRIDOR DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY,
BRINGING CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AREAS OF FREEZING FOG EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
2) A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY, BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO PUSH EAST OF
I81. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE CENTER BRINGS BETTER CHANCES FOR A
WETTING, SOAKING RAINFALL LATER ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH COOLER
WEATHER MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVERHEAD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. FOG BURNS OFF BY MID MORNING MONDAY AND THEN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
ONLY CHANGES FROM NBM WERE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE LOW 30S
PERCENT AND POSSIBLY BELOW 30% IN SOME AREAS, BUT DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 8-20 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS OUT AHEAD THE NEXT INCOMING FRONT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NY AND
THIS WILL BE TOUGH FOR INCOMING MOISTURE TO PENETRATE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDDAY. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO REACH INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION, BUT NOT SURE IF
ANY MOISTURE IS GOING TO MAKE IT EAST OF I81. THERE MAY JUST BE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL THEN SETTLE OVER
THE REGION AND POSSIBLY REMAIN THERE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVES AND DISTURBANCES
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA AT DIFFERENT TIMES WITH COOL AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. IT WON'T BE RAINING OR PRECIPITATING THE
ENTIRE TIME, BUT EACH DAY WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM -2 TO -6C THIS ENTIRE
TIMEFRAME AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES
START FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MAY 1ST AND UNFORTUNATELY THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOW
30S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT FROM RECENT
RAINFALL, LIGHT WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES, WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN IFR-OR-WORSE RESTRICTIONS AT MOST TERMINALS,
ESPECIALLY KELM. WHILE FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT
KAVP, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THERE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z/13Z MONDAY, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED;
FOG POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND AT
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPK
AVIATION...BJG
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