392  
FXUS61 KBGM 081756  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
1256 PM EST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
REMAINING CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AROUND THE  
REGION INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT; ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL  
NY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH DRY, SEASONABLE  
AND PARTLY SUNNY WEATHER EXPECTED. SUNDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE  
FOR LIGHT SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.  
A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY, THEN DRY WEATHER LIKELY  
RETURNING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
1030 AM UPDATE...  
 
MINOR UPDATES TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR THE REST OF  
TODAY AND TONIGHT, AS COLD NW UPSLOPE FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND  
FINGER LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR  
DRIZZLE INTO THIS EVENING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SLOWLY SHIFTS  
WEST ACROSS CNY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS MORE NORTHERLY,  
AND EVENTUALLY NNE LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER  
STEADY TODAY, PERHAPS NUDGING UP 2-4 DEGREES FROM CURRENT  
READINGS. WE EVENTUALLY GET CLEARING FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST  
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING; WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES  
EXPECTED AREAWIDE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
355 AM UPDATE...  
NW FLOW WILL SLOWLY ADVECT COOLER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION  
TODAY. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS PRESENT THIS MORNING  
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME ERODING TODAY, PARTICULARLY OVER THE  
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL  
CONTINUE IN PLACES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CANADA EDGES FURTHER TO THE  
EAST, WE'LL EVENTUALLY GET SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE  
AREA, DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT (THU NIGHT/FRI AM).  
 
DESPITE THE COOLER AIR ALOFT, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE  
NEAR NORMAL, BUT BY FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE  
UPPER-30S FOR MOST AREAS, AND LOWER-40S FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY  
AND ALONG THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR/MOHAWK VALLEY.  
 
1 AM UPDATE...  
NO MAJOR CHANGES AS LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL  
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  
 
930 PM UPDATE...  
MINOR CHANGES. THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE AREA NOW.  
SPRINKLES ARE ACROSS CNY NOW WITH A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE.  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR  
MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE SNOW THURSDAY MORNING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. DESPITE 90 PLUS RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY SURFACE FOG WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD OR ALL THAT DENSE  
TONIGHT.  
 
210 PM UPDATE...  
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT  
THAT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT HAVE HAD DEEPER CONVECTION BUT SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN  
NO LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD  
OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS IN NEPA AND THE  
CATSKILLS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PUT INTO  
THE FORECAST GRIDS. VERY LITTLE SOLAR RADIATION IS REACHING THE  
GROUND AND WAA IS A LITTLE TO WEAK TO GET SOME BETTER ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY.  
 
TONIGHT WEAK CAA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CAUSES 850 MB  
TEMPERATURES TO EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND -8C AND WITH LAKE  
ONTARIO'S AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND 6C, THERE IS JUST  
ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY TO GET SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN  
SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION LATE  
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING  
IN AS WELL, A DESCENDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE  
DEPTH OF MOISTURE SO DRIZZLE WAS ADDED INTO THE GRIDS ALONG WITH  
RAIN SHOWERS SINCE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHTER  
SIDE.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SKIES  
TRYING TO CLEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.  
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN  
INTO THE MID TO LOW 20S. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPEED AT  
WHICH THE CLOUD COVER CAN CLEAR AND LEANING TOWARDS MORE SKY  
COVER SINCE IT IS WINTER IN UPSTATE NY AND THERE WILL STILL BE  
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO, OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE KEPT ON  
THE WARMER SIDE. IF THE SKY CAN ACTUALLY CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR,  
SOME OF THE LOWER PERCENTILES OF THE NBM HAVE WIDESPREAD TEENS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
320 AM UPDATE...  
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PRESENT IN THE REGION. WHILE  
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.  
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 20S. MOSTLY TO PARTLY  
SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY. HIGHS  
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AS AN  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATE SATURDAY. SKY  
COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS TROUGH  
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
TROUGH WILL TAP INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BUFKIT  
SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, SO  
SNOW IS FAVORED. THOSE ALONG AND WEST OF I-81 COULD WAKE UP TO A  
COATING OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES MORE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.  
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER, THERE ARE  
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO  
THE SURFACE WILL BE. THE GFS REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW, BUT  
GUIDANCE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF GETS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY  
IN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND WYOMING VALLEY REGION. SINCE  
NATIONAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE (NBM) WAS USED FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES,  
THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF RAIN IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE. HOWEVER, IF  
CONDITIONS CAN STAY COLDER, THEN A TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN IS NOT  
EXPECTED. SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS REMAIN AROUND 10:1 BUT QPF TOTALS  
ARE ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCHES OR LESS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AS OF  
NOW, MOST OF THE REGION WOULD OBSERVE ENOUGH TO COVER THE GROUND  
WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING A COUPLE OF INCHES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE  
IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE WARMER AREAS BEING THE LOWER  
ELEVATIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
320 PM UPDATE  
 
THE LOW WEAKENS AS IT DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY OUT TO  
SEA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE  
TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE  
SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-81. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE  
REGION MONDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK. AN  
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY  
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOT FAR BEHIND IT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING  
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.  
NBM GUIDANCE WAS TOO QUICK BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS, WHICH HAVE  
SLOWED DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM. MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE  
NEEDED TO BACK OFF ON POPS FOR WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME  
GUIDANCE IS NOW FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THURSDAY.  
 
HIGHS THIS PERIOD START IN THE 30S BUT TREND WARMER MIDWEEK AS  
COLDER AIR RETREATS NORTHWARD WITH THE HELP OF THE TROUGH MOVING IN.  
THEN UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS ARE A LITTLE MORE  
VARIABLE. THE WEEKEND FINISHES OUT IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S SUNDAY  
NIGHT BUT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEARER SKIES MONDAY  
NIGHT WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE TEENS. FROM THERE, LOWS  
THEN TREND WARMER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A COLD NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP STRATUS CLOUDS LOCKED IN  
OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BASES ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 015-040 FEET  
AND SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STEADY. THERE COULD BE A FEW BREAKS IN  
THE CLOUDS, OR AT LEAST MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 12  
HOURS, ESPECIALLY AT RME AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. MVFR FUEL  
ALTERNATE CIGS ARE MOST LIKELY AT SYR AND ITH FOR THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS; THEN FUEL ALTERNATE MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 08-09Z EARLY  
FRIDAY MORNING AT BGM, ITH AND ELM. AVP LOOKS TO STAY MAINLY LOW  
END VFR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
THE MVFR CIGS LIFT AND SCATTERED OUT FROM NE TO SW LATE TONIGHT  
AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH VFR EXPECTED AREAWIDE AFTER ABOUT 14Z  
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN SKC CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...VFR EXPECTED.  
 
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED  
RAIN-SNOW WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. SLOW IMPROVEMENTS ON  
MONDAY.  
 
TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MJM  
NEAR TERM...MJM/MPH  
SHORT TERM...BTL  
LONG TERM...BTL  
AVIATION...MJM/MPH  
 
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