919
FXUS61 KBGM 110753
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
353 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COOLER TREND
SETTLES IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES AROUND WELL INTO THE
COMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
345 AM UPDATE...
COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST. THIS ADVECTS WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S. CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CARRY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. WINDS THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST AGAIN
WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NY, NORTHEAST PA WILL REMAIN CLEAR. REGARDLESS
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR REGION WITH A TOUCH OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN ONEIDA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORT WAVE, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
SOON AFTER SUNRISE.
BEHIND THIS FEATURE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ON SATURDAY, WITH
SKIES CLEARING OUT AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S ACROSS CENTRAL NY, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
NORTHEAST PA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
345 AM UPDATE...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
INCREASING MERIDIONAL AMPLITUDE AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
A SURFACE LOW WILL GATHER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH WARM
FRONTOGENESIS TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTHERN PA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE AND
PROBABILISTIC QPF ARE INDICATING HIGHER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BY 12Z SUNDAY. NBM GUIDANCE SEEMS A TOUCH LOW,
PROBABLY DUE TO THE SPATIAL DIFFERENCES IN FORCING FEATURES VERSUS
THE ACTUAL EVENT OCCURRING. AS A RESULT, THIS SEEMS LIKE A
REASONABLE OPPORTUNITY TO TREND UP RAIN CHANCES OVER GUIDANCE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS INTO CNY. PRECIPITATION
MAY TEND TO BE MORE SHOWERY ACROSS NEPA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME MARGINAL FOR SOME WET SNOW
FLAKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS, LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW DUE TO
TIMING AND MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO
UPPER 40S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE MARITIMES
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE RELEASING LATER IN THE WEEK.
ANOMALOUSLY COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE CONTINOUSLY DRAWN ACROSS THE
AREA FOR A FEW DAYS OF FALL-LIKE CHILL. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL RESPOND TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PROBABLY WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE RIDGING TAKES OVER ON THURSDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSING BACK IN ON NORMAL. WINTER
FORECAST PARAMETERS DO SUGGEST THAT THE COLD AIR MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT WET SNOW FLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS, LEATHERSTOCKING REGION AND THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTED OUT OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,
FAVORING NW AT TIMES. SOME VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED, WITH IFR
POSSIBLE AT ELM AND AT RME IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY, WITH
LIGHT NW WINDS CONTINUING. GUIDANCE HINTS AT LLWS TOMORROW NIGHT
AT NY SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR; LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-022>025-
036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...ES
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