797
FXUS61 KBGM 010628
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
228 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST, BUT THERE WILL BE ONGOING
FLOODING FROM YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STATIONARY FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION AGAIN TODAY, BUT
MUCH LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
MOSTLY MINOR RIVER FLOODING THROUGH INTO THURSDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT CORTLAND
MAY BARELY HIT MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN FELL ACROSS CENTRAL NY YESTERDAY AND
LAST NIGHT. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES OCCURRED AND THIS
HAS LED TO SOME FLOODING IN OUR AREA LAKES AND RIVERS. FIRST DAY
OF TROUT SEASON TODAY, BUT HIGH RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS WILL MAKE
FOR DIFFICULT AND IN SOME CASES TREACHEROUS CONDITIONS.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS, THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
WIDESPREAD RAINS UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER PERIOD
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO MORE EARLY SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE OFF- AND- ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS WELL
DURING THIS TIME, AND WHILE NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, THIS
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD STILL ADD TO ANY ONGOING HYDRO
ISSUES. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING,
SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS IF THE FRONT COMES IN EARLIER SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE
THE LAST OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE WEEK, THOUGH WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR COULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY BE SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL NY MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ONE BATCH CROSSING NE PA AND BRINGING MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN TO AVP WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED CAN LEAD TO MOSTLY
BRIEF VISBY RESTRICTIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THOSE BRIEF
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE LOCATED WAS TOO LOW TO COVER FOR IN THE
TAF, BUT ELM, ITH AND SYR MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT IFR
RESTRICTIONS.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
LOW END MVFR/IFR, MAINLY AFTER 08Z-09Z. LOOKING UPSTREAM BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO, THERE IS A MIXED BAG OF RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME, SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE NY TERMINALS IS LOW TO MEDIUM. THERE ALSO
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS ON SOUTH.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND A LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS; ASSOCIATED
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-
036-037-044>046-055>057.
DISCUSSION...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...DK
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