802
FXUS61 KBGM 211720
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1220 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA FOR
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVES TODAY INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION,
SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE UPDATED FOR THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WERE ALSO
INCREASED FOR MOST OF THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE STRONG AND PASSING FRONTAL SYSTEMS ALL SHOULD LEAD
TO GUSTY WINDS. POPS WERE INCREASED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS
HAVE ALL TRENDED THE TRACK OF THE LOW FURTHER NORTH WITH WHAT
NOW IS LOOKING LIKE A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BUT
WEAKENS AS IT DOES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK WITH MORE PERSISTENT SNOWFALL LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY.
2. FRIGID CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THIS WEEK WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY. THE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BRING
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
3) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES TO THE NORTH SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. DUE TO THIS SHIFT, CONFIDENCE IS NOW INCREASING THAT
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY AN IMPACTFUL WINTER
STORM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLDER AIR RETREATS TODAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PUSHES A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS A WEAK SYSTEM, BUT IT IS
LIKELY TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW THEN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS
THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. LOCAL TERRAIN
AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL LEAD TO THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS N. ONEIDA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER WITH THE FLOW AT 250/260
DEGREES, THE BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL MOSTLY REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BLAST OF COLD AIR FRIDAY, AND
AS FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NY. T850 IS MODELED TO DROP AS LOW AS
-25 TO -28. WHILE THE START OF THIS WEEK WAS A COLD ONE, EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN COLDER
ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES COULD SEE THE FIRST EXTREME COLD WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY
BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER SYSTEM CONTINUES
WITH EACH MODEL RUN. THE 0Z MODEL CYCLE NOW SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WAS OFFERING US PROTECTION, RETROGRADING FURTHER
NORTHWARD INTO CANADA AND WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE OVERALL FORECAST DETAILS, THIS TYPE
OF SYNOPTIC SETUP IS LIKELY TO BRING AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL INTO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AMPLE
MOISTURE WITH IT AND WITH THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG FRONTOGENICAL FORCING ALONG THE GRADIENT WHERE
THIS WARM MOIST AIR PLOWS INTO THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS. WHERE THAT
AREA ACTUALLY TURNS OUT TO BE IS ANYONES GUESS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER,
BEING THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 4/5 DAYS OUT, THERE REMAINS TIME TO
BE PATIENT AND WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO SETTLE ON SOLUTIONS AS THE
DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. LATEST NBM PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST
A WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL (6" IN NEPA AND 7" IN NY) IS NOW UP TO
40% AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER, SO USED THIS AS THE BASIS
FOR ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO FOR NOW. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE MUCH HIGHER AS THE ELEMENTS OF THIS SYSTEM START COMING
TOGETHER.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL NY IS BRINGING
RESTRICTIONS TO RME AND SYR FROM SNOW, WHICH SHOULD ONLY LAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 00Z, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AS THE CLIPPER
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MOST
OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO AFFECT ONLY
RME AND SYR, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS FOR ITH.
WIND INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH S TO SSW GUSTS OF 15-25
KNOTS. BORDERLINE SSWERLY LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST
TERMINALS APPROACHING 00Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH GENERALLY
06Z-08Z.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NY TERMINALS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT
INTERMITTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, GENERALLY
FOR SYR-RME-ITH; LOW CONFIDENCE ON RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...POTENTIAL SNOW MOVING IN; LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME IN TIMING AND TRACK.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009.
DISCUSSION...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...KL
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