037
FXUS61 KBGM 311801
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
201 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOCUSING A LITTLE MORE ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER RISK LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) RISKS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING INCREASES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
3) A COOLER PATTERN WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE GENERAL SETUP INDICATES A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND THEN STALLING SOMEWHERE OVER CNY AND NEPA FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEK. ALOFT...MULTIPLE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW
TRIGGERING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING THE
PRECISION OF THESE WAVES IS PROVING TO BE DIFFICULT WITH A WIDE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS SHOWING UP IN THE GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING UP A BIT IN COVERAGE
OVER NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AS AN INITIAL WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA
HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CAMS MODELS
WHERE SOME DO DEVELOP MORE CONVECTION DURING THE WEE HOURS.
ONE THING THAT IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR IS THAT INSTABILITY WILL
RETURN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL POSITION SETTING THE AREA
UP FOR STRONGER, MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMER DAY, WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ECLIPSING 70% FOR
>1500 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR. ONE OF THE
THINGS WORKING AGAINST TUESDAY IS THE LACK OF A DEFINITIVE TRIGGER
COINCIDING WITH THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS, BUT EVEN IF
STORMS OCCUR EARLY OR AFTER DARK, SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE LIKELY DUE
TO THE PRIME ATMOSPHERIC SETUP. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE
LOCATION AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, THE INSTABILITY AXIS FAVORS OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
WEDNESDAY HAS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH WITH THE DOMINANT
MODEL CLUSTER SHOWING A LATER DAY/NIGHT TIMING IF CORRECT. MORE
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL LIKELY MEAN MORE CLOUDS, LESS HEATING AND
OVERALL CAPE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. STILL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 800
AND 1500 J/KG IS LOOKING LIKELY. SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER, HOVERING
AROUND 50 KNOTS AND WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH, A TRIGGER IS
PRESENT TO GET STORMS GOING EVEN WITHOUT A WHOLE LOT OF CAPE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WARM FRONT WILL STILL BE STALLED AND COULD BE A FOCAL POINT FOR
TRAINING STORMS MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. PWATS NEAR
2 INCHES AND A STRONG (~40 TO 50 KNOT) LOW LEVEL JET FORMING IN THE
EVENING ON WEDNESDAY FEEDING PERSISTENT, TRAINING STORMS COULD LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WHERE THEY LINE UP. THE CURRENT
THINKING POINTS TO A CUMULATIVE SPREAD OF QPF BETWEEN 2-3" OF RAIN
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS ACROSS CNY AND A LITTLE LESS FOR NEPA.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITHIN THIS SETUP AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HIGH
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL BE PRESENT. NATIONAL WATER MODEL GUIDANCE AND
HREF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO HANDLE RUNOFF FROM PROJECTED RAINFALL, HOWEVER, SMALLER ORDER
STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES ARE SHOWING LOW-MEDIUM PROBABILITY SIGNALS
FOR RAPID ONSET FLOODING WHICH WILL NEED CLOSE MONITORING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE THURSDAY WITH MORE SUN,
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AGAIN WITH HIGH SHEAR ONCE AGAIN THOUGH THE
LACK OF A TRIGGER MAY KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING BUT COULD HAVE
ANOTHER DAY WITH A HAIL AND WET MICROBURST THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE LARGE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL US
RETROGRADES WEST WITH THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST NUDGING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL HELP THE FLOW BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. DEPENDING ON HOW COOL THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE, THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEAL WITH BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM-STATIONARY
FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS
PRIMARILY WAVERING WITHIN THE MVFR-IFR CATEGORIES...WITH SOME VFR
FLUCTUATION POSSIBLE AND POTENTIALLY ALSO DOWN TO ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS. AIRPORT MINS DON'T SEEM A HIGH PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.
TSRA RISK LOOKS TOO LOW AND FURTHER OUT IN TIME TO BE INCLUDED WITH
THIS PACKAGE...BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR. CHANCE OF EARLY AM FOG EACH DAY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAB
AVIATION...JAB/JTC
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