420  
FXUS61 KBGM 202047  
AFDBGM  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY  
347 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FRIGID NORTHWEST WIND WILL CAUSE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS  
THROUGH MONDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS  
THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND SYRACUSE AREA THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH SOME  
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED. WIND CHILL WARNINGS ARE IN  
EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...  
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH  
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A STRONG  
NORTHWEST FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW IN CENTRAL NEW  
YORK AND FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THIS  
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS IN THE  
RANGE OF 20 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL  
STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO TO 10 ABOVE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL  
STILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 30  
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.  
 
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MONDAY AROUND 315  
DEGREES. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS  
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION INCLUDING THE SYRACUSE AREA. TOTAL  
SNOWFALL THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES.  
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO DRY AIRMASS  
AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHT. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY WILL  
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION  
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS  
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW MOST  
PLACES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE NEXT WINTER  
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW CHANGING TO A  
WINTRY MIX AND THEN BACK TO SNOW.  
 
ON TUESDAY MORNING, THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW  
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. SURFACE HIGH  
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BE SHIFTING THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY. THESE  
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE  
CLOUDS FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.  
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET ON TUESDAY AND LIKELY INTO TUESDAY  
EVENING.  
 
THE PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY  
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY  
PHASES WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW  
ACROSS ERN CANADA SLIDES FROM MANITOBA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS  
SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT SNOW ON  
THE FRONT EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO INTO WED  
MORNING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. THERE WILL BE  
AN ELEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM SIMILAR TO THE MOST RECENT WINTER  
STORM...ALTHOUGH MUCH LESS INTENSE...WHERE A NOSE OF MUCH WARMER AIR  
WILL ADVECT NORTH AHEAD OF AND INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THIS WILL  
CAUSE A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX WED MORNING, AND THEN  
EVENTUALLY A PERIOD OF MOSTLY RAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED. THERE IS  
SOME INDICATION OF ANOTHER BRANCH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE  
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SW...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT EVEN MORE  
QPF...UPWARDS OF AN INCH OR MORE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE  
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PUT A NAME ON DUE TO MODEL  
GUIDANCE THERMAL PROFILES BEING ALL OVER THE MAP.  
 
THE CHANNEL OF WARM MOIST AIR EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING IN  
FROM THE SW WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT AND SLOW THE EWD PROGRESS  
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINTRY MIX...MAINLY OVER THE  
EASTERN COUNTIES...TO PERSIST A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY  
THOUGHT. THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR SLOWLY LATE WED NIGHT  
FROM WEST TO EAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THERE STILL MAY BE A WINTRY MIX ONGOING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES  
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO  
ALL SNOW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE  
OF THE SYSTEM ADVECTS IN. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE QUITE A BIT OF  
AGREEMENT AND RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH REGARD TO ANOTHER ARCTIC  
AIR MASS MOVING IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IT IS STILL TO EARLY  
TO SAY HOW COLD WE WILL GET FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT IT DOES  
APPEAR THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME ON AND OFF  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND  
ONTARIO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING  
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO LATE  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW.  
OVERNIGHT, MVFR/ALTERNATE REQUIRED RESTRICTIONS IN GENERAL WITH  
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. AT KSYR, IFR  
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO MORE PERSISTENT LAKE  
SNOW SHOWERS. AT KELM/KAVP, GENERALLY LOW VFR OVERNIGHT.  
ON MONDAY, MAINLY LOW VFR ALTHOUGH KSYR/KITH/KBGM WILL SEE MVFR  
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS.  
 
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS  
DECREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THEN BACK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN WITH  
SNOW OR WINTRY MIX AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.  
 
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-  
044-047-048-072.  
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-  
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RRM  
NEAR TERM...RRM  
SHORT TERM...BJT  
LONG TERM...BJT  
AVIATION...RRM  
 
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