605
FXUS61 KBGM 260538
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
138 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW COLD
FRONTS CROSSING THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK
PLUS. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AS DRY COLD FRONTS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THESE
FRONTS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS, HOWEVER THEY WILL
ALSO BRING AN INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WHICH ALLEVIATES
SOME OF OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TIGHTENS SOME. MINIMUM RH WILL RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S PERCENT IN THE MID AFTERNOON, BEFORE
INCREASING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS ARRIVE. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN RH, WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING TO ISSUE ANY FIRE RELATED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CLOSELY.
A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING INTO WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NY LATE THIS
EVENING MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWER TO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR ALONG
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, EXTENDING SOUTHWEST, WITH THE LIGHT
SHOWERS TRACKING SOUTHEAST.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DOES BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY AND
LATER THURSDAY, BUT THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS
(AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY), WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS.
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR
CEILINGS TO KSYR AND KRME FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
AFTER 19Z. ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. SEEING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KELM THIS MORNING CONTINUES
TO LOOK LESS LIKELY (ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA) AND THEREFORE RESTRICTIONS WERE REMOVED FROM THE 06Z
SET OF TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. MORNING FOG AT KELM
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT KSYR AND KRME
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPK/SJW
AVIATION...BJG
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