000
FXUS61 KBGM 262315
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
715 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING, TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS CIRRUS STREAMS OVER THE AREA. POPS WERE ADJUSTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST DATA; THIS GIVES THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN NORTHEAST PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND PARTLY SUNNY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA.
2) A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
3) AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MOISTURE
IS ONCE AGAIN LIMITED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE PRISTINE EARLY SUMMER DAYS WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER HUMIDITY AS DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH.
EXPECT INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT
PATCHY VALLEY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN EARLY MORNING HOURS. WEDNESDAY
WILL FEATURE SUNSHINE FILTERED THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS. LATE IN THE DAY
A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH AND COULD SPARK OFF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER AND/OR
NE PA. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH WITH THE LATEST DATA, INTO THE WYOMING VALLEY/POCONOS
OF NE PA. THIS IS WHERE AROUND 500 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS EXPECTED,
ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR (35KTS) AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID-80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE DRIER ACROSS
CNY, IN THE 50S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN NE PA, AS DEW
POINTS REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AS WINDS SHIFT NNW AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL TO AROUND +6C
AT THE 850MB LEVEL. A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SPRINKLES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE, SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY AS THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY, ONLY IN THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S.
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER IN AND AROUND THE CATSKILLS TO MOHAWK VALLEY.
BRIEF UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVE IN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT, KEEPING IT DRY AND COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
FRIDAY STARTS OFF DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW THEN DROPS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING. THE
EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT LATEST TRENDS ARE A LITTLE
FASTER WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW. THE LOW SWINGS A FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY
OR EVENING; ESPECIALLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW (534DM THICKNESSES) DIVES SOUTH ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT, LIKELY REMAINING JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
ONCE AGAIN. THE LATEST TRENDS ARE FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
MOVE/SLIDE FASTER EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THAT WOULD PUT OUR
REGION IN A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW, WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED POP UP SHOWER FOR SATURDAY. NW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BETWEEN
8-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED. WITH 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES HOVERING AROUND 546DM, AND 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +2C
IN THE AFTERNOON, IT WILL BE QUITE COOL AROUND THE REGION. LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NY, WITH SOME LOW
70S POSSIBLE FOR THE WYOMING VALLEY.
SATURDAY NIGHT SEES WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CLEAR SKIES,
DIMINISHING WINDS AND COOL LOWS IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS IF THE WINDS
DECOUPLE FAST ENOUGH.
IT LIKELY STAYS DRY AND SUNNY MOST OF SUNDAY, HOWEVER TIMING
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CROP UP IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE MADE WITH NBM/WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH FACTORS IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA. THIS AGAIN SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF
THE ANOMALOUS OMEGA BLOCK HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER FAIRLY DRY SYSTEM, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND PWATS ONLY AROUND
0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES AS IT SWINGS THROUGH. WITH THAT SAID, THERE
CERTAINLY COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. COOL WEATHER CONTINUES WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES MONDAY, AND A SLIGHT REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVER OUR AREA
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW
RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS NEARBY OR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND DROPS SOUTH.
EXACTLY HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT REMAINS TO BE SEEN THOUGH.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVERHEAD.
ELM IS THE EXCEPTION AS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WITH FAIRLY THIN CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE THICKENING CIRRUS WILL
LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SO THE TEMPO ADDED IS JUST BARELY
IFR RATHER THAN BRINGING VIS DOWN TO LIFR AS CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. MIGHT SEE A
PASSING SHOWER/STORM AT AVP LATE WED AFTERNOON THAT COULD
BRIEFLY DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR; POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAT COULD
CAUSE RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...AJG/JTC
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