851
FXUS61 KBGM 250957
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
457 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET START EARLY TODAY BEFORE RAIN MOVES IN LATER THIS
MORNING. MILD TEMPERATURES HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGS COLDER AIR, AREAS OF HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW, AND INCREASING WINDS INTO THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY BRING
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD FOR LATE
NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE ABOUT A QUARTER INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM BY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOWEVER, SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
INCREASING WINDS. FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
THEREFORE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MAY TRANSITION TO SNOW
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A NON DIURNAL TREND IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER IN. BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL
TO -9C AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE REGION. LAKE
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND +10C CREATING A LARGE TEMPERATURES
DIFFERENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THIS SET UP IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LONG DURATION EVENT LASTING INTO SATURDAY WITH
FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION OFF OF THE LAKES. INITIALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOST SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF OUR
AREA ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE
MAY CLIP WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS TIME, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR, LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE
COLDER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND WEST WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.
IT IS NOT UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY THAT WINDS SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST. LAKE EFFECT EFFECT BANDS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO BECOME ORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF LIFT
AND SATURATION THROUGH THE DGZ. WITH PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ALL DAY FRIDAY
AND LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
NO UPGRADES AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE
EXACTLY BANDS WILL SET UP. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BANDS SET UP AND FOR HOW LONG.
REGARDLESS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVER OUR VERY NORTHERN COUNTIES. ANOTHER HAZARD TO NOTE WITH
THIS EVENT ARE THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS WILL CAUSE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND
POSSIBLY WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN EXPOSED OPEN AREAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION. FLOW SHIFTS BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST CUTTING OFF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. DESPITE THIS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY, AS
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF A
LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
FOR NOW, WILL STICK WITH NBM POPS FOR THAT PERIOD DUE TO THE
GREAT UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR JUST OVER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. A
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO ALL TERMINALS. IN ADDITION, CEILINGS
WILL QUICKLY FALL FROM MVFR/FUEL ALT TO IFR/LIFR. VISIBILITIES
WILL ALSO BE REDUCED AS LOCALIZED SHOWERS WILL BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOWER CHANCES THEN DECREASE AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY
THOUGH MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
SYR AND RME.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL AROUND 12 TO
14Z. THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE GUSTY AS THEY SYSTEM
APPROACHES WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS WILL BECOME CALMER AT RME AND SYR, THE
GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS) AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT AVP. CONDITIONS LOOK MORE
BORDERLINE AT SYR AND RME BUT LLWS WAS LEFT IN THE TAFS. LLWS
DIMINISHES AROUND THE SAME TIME SURFACE WINDS PICK UP LATER THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER PERIOD OF LLWS IS THEN EXPECTED AT AVP BY
AROUND 20Z. SYR IS THE ONLY OTHER TERMINAL WHERE WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED LATE TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...COLD FRONT BRINGS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR IS
CURRENTLY AT ITH/SYR/RME.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ009-018-036-037.
SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES/MPK
AVIATION...BTL
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