639
FXUS61 KBGM 201806
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
206 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF PATCHY FROST WERE ADDED FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PASSING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BRINGS FALLING TEMPERATURES
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER IN THE
DAY.
2) RAIN RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO POP UP ALONG THE FRONT IN
PA'S NORTHERN TIER. FURTHER SOUTH FROM THERE, CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED
TO MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS, ALLOWING FOR A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH 500+ J/KG OF MLCAPE. SHEAR IS WEAK AT JUST 25 TO 30 KNOTS. IN
ADDITION, WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP, THE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT BEST. OVERALL, THE CONCERN FOR STRONGER
STORMS REMAINS LOW BUT THERE IS STILL A NEED TO MONITOR THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY THE WYOMING VALLEY AND ALONG THE I-84
CORRIDOR.
HEADING INTO THE EVENING, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE STABLE THOUGH
RAIN WILL CONTINUE. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. AN INCOMING WAVE
WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
INTERACT AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
THIS WILL KICK OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
NEPA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE RAIN STICKS AROUND
AS THE CAMS MOVE THE RAIN OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL AND AI VERSIONS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE RAIN INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW, THIS FORECAST LEANED TOWARD THE SHORT-
RANGE GUIDANCE BUT ADDITIONAL TIMING ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN
FUTURE UPDATES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LOW IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND REMAIN
PRESENT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DRY END TO THE
WORKWEEK BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. FOR THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
60S BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 30S AND 40S THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS
UPDATE, TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED DOWN BELOW NBM GUIDANCE BY BLENDING
IN THE NBM TENTH PERCENTILE AS CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. FROST WAS ALSO ADDED FOR SMALL AREAS
IN ONEIDA AND STEUBEN COUNTY WHERE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. A
SLIGHT WARM UP IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A COLD AIR DAMMING
SET UP AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE
REGION IN THE 60S DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. WHILE ALL AREAS WERE LOWERED BELOW
GUIDANCE, THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WERE KEPT MORE MILD WHERE
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER FOR 70+ DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION
AND BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SLOW MOVING RESULTING IN RAIN LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT POTENTIALLY LONGER. WPC HAS THE
REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. PWATS WILL BE 1.25
TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVER
A 24-HOUR PERIOD THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHERE THIS WILL BE.
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK HAS BEEN LOCALIZED AND THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DRY DAYS LEADING UP TO THIS WEEKEND, SO HYDRO CONCERNS ARE
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND
MOVES IN ON SUNDAY. WHILE SOME GUIDANCE HAVE CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO
DRY OUT ON MONDAY, IT MIGHT BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE TO ENJOY ANY PART
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. A
COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SYSTEMS MAY CLIP THE
REGION BUT FOR MOST, CONDITIONS WILL STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK, RETURNING CLOSER TO NEAR IF NOT
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS VERY SLOW TREK SOUTH WITH MVFR
CEILINGS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT, CURRENTLY IMPACTING
ITH/BGM/ELM. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTH, AND
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS TRICKY AS GUIDANCE HAS NOT
DONE A GREAT JOB MODELING THE CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FIRING OVER CENTRAL PA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS RETREATING TO
THE SE. CURRENT THINKING IS A GROUP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
FOLLOW THE CURVE AROUND THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
MOVE INTO THE AVP AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HEAVY RAIN
BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISBY. SOME SHOWERS MAY LEAK NORTH
OF THE FRONT INTO THE BGM/ELM AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE HERE IS LOW
THAT RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR.
WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE
MORE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AVP TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT AVP MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THESE SHOWERS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SYR AND RME WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ITH WILL SEE MVFR
CEILINGS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE BECOMING VFR AS THE LOW
CLOUDS SLIDE SOUTH.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...JTC
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