593
FXUS61 KCLE 081752
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1252 PM EST THU DEC 8 2022
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY.
WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT PASSES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE AREA ARRIVES MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
9:30 AM UPDATE...
MAINLY AREAS OF MIST THIS MORNING AND OVERALL CLOUDINESS. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP US CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AND
INTO THE EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
625 AM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. STILL HAVE SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG OUT THERE, BUT MORE OF A LOW STRATUS THAN
DENSE FOG, EVEN THOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE REDUCED AT TIMES BELOW 2
MILES. THE STRATUS IS GOING TO STICK AROUND WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL STRUGGLE TO SCATTER OUT. IT MAY TRY TO
BRIEFLY AT TIMES, BUT THE INVERSION AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 925MB IN NORTHERLY FLOW WITH THE
TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER A STRONG INVERSION AT AROUND 875MB WILL KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN PLAY WELL INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY,
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE. THE INVERSION WILL BE A FIXTURE
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE BULK OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC. A WAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA 00Z FRIDAY, AND KEEP POPS SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST ZONES. MEANWHILE, A FILLING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OCCLUDED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH POPS INTO THE WESTERN ZONES BEGINNING EARLY
FRIDAY, BUT THE FORCING WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE AS WELL, AS
EXPECTED GIVEN THE TREND OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND FREEZING, MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW AT THE ONSET, BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE EXPECTED, AND BY THE TIME THE POPS INCREASE,
RAIN SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
PRECIP SHOULD END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES E'WARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
TOWARD THE NE U.S. AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY.
AT THE SURFACE, THE ACCOMPANYING LOW SHOULD MEANDER AND WEAKEN IN
VICINITY OF THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY. PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW IN MUCH OF
NE OH AND NW PA VIA NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE WET-BULB EFFECT BEFORE
PRECIP ENDS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. LOWS SHOULD PRIMARILY REACH THE UPPER 20'S TO MID 30'S AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CRESTS E'WARD OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE, THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW DISSIPATES IN VICINITY OF THE MID AND UPPER OH
VALLEY AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL QC. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 40'S.
THE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXITS E'WARD SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRAVERSES OUR CWA AND VICINITY ON SUNDAY.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
E'WARD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE LOW'S TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWEEP
E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED PRECIP IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT
ACCOMPANYING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG
THE OCCLUDED FRONT. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CAA AND THE SEEDER-FEEDER
PROCESS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW PRECIP TO BECOME LAKE-
ENHANCED GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE, IN NE OH AND NW PA,
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN, BUT RAIN
SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES IN NW PA VIA NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND/OR THE WET-BULB EFFECT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONE INCH OR LESS. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE 30'S
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30'S TO MID 40'S ON SUNDAY. PRIMARILY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY-
COLD AND MOIST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE-EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD AMOUNT TO LESS THAN ONE INCH.
LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE UPPER 20'S TO MID 30'S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PRIMARILY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD E'WARD AND
EVENTUALLY CRESTS OVER OUR CWA. HOWEVER, LINGERING AND LIGHT LAKE-
EFFECT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END GENERALLY SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE ERIE BY MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY AS A LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACCOMPANYING THE BUILDING RIDGE CONTRIBUTES TO
WANING LAKE-INDUCED CAPE. ANY FRESH SNOWFALL SHOULD BE MINOR.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30'S TO LOWER 40'S ON MONDAY
AND BE FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20'S TO LOWER 30'S MONDAY
NIGHT. THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT
E'WARD ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
VICINITY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN RESPONSE
TO MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE EXPECTED DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE. IT IS TOO SOON TO DISCUSS HOW MUCH SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE. DAILY DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30'S TO
UPPER 40'S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REACH THE MID 20'S
TO MID 30'S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STILL SOME LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS IN MIST THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE TERMINALS ARE MAINLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF VFR
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED LOCKED
IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE HARD TO LIFT TO
VFR WHILE MOISTURE STAYS PUT. HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
THROUGH THE EVENING, THOUGH TIMING MAY BE ADJUSTED AND PUSHED
LATER AS DRIER AIR MAY BE SLOWER TO ENTER THE REGION. THERE IS A
SIGNAL FOR MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN PATCHY FOG,
MAINLY FOR KYNG. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW LESS THAN 10
KNOTS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. FOR THE CLE EXTENDED TAF, HAVE
VICINITY SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOWERS BEGIN TO APPROACH THE TERMINAL FRIDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
SHOWERS, WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS VEER GRADUALLY TO NORTHEASTERLY TODAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM NORTHERN ON AND CENTRAL QC. WAVES TREND 3
FEET OR LESS. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A LOW MOVES FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE MID OH VALLEY, EXTENDS A TROUGH OVER THE LAKE, AND INTERACTS
WITH THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND EAST. WAVES ARE STILL FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 4 TO 8 FEET, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. ON SATURDAY, NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY IN THE MORNING VEER
GRADUALLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AND EASE TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW MEANDERS,
WEAKENS, AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES IN VICINITY OF THE MID TO UPPER
OH VALLEY, THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGH DISSIPATES OVER THE LAKE, AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE REBUILDS FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL QC. WAVES AS
LARGE AS 4 TO 8 FEET EARLY ON SATURDAY SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR LESS BY
THE EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT TO ALSO SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE AND BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND FRONT. WAVES WILL PRIMARILY BE
3 FEET OR LESS, BUT OCCASIONAL 4 TO 5 FOOTERS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ON MONDAY, NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS VEER GRADUALLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND 3 FEET OR LESS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...IVERSON/26
SHORT TERM...JASZKA
LONG TERM...JASZKA
AVIATION...IVERSON
MARINE...JASZKA
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