934  
FXUS61 KCLE 042322  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
722 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025  
   
..00Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE  
 
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WARM  
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH BACK  
SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART  
OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
RAIN HAS MOSTLY EXITED THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM  
UPSTATE NEW YORK TO NEAR PITTSBURGH AT 3 PM. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO  
SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A DRY SLOT AND LARGE SCALE  
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE  
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS  
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.  
 
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE IN THE NEAR TERM AS WE CONTEND WITH  
MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
OVER ONTARIO. A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF  
CENTRAL CANADA AND ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA TODAY WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE  
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN WHILE DEEPENING TO 992MB. SOUTHERLY  
FLOW RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET  
CROSSING NW OHIO AND LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL  
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR  
80 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WE DO START TO SEE SCATTERED  
CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVEN A LOW END 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A  
SHOWER WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN  
HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAMS NORTHEAST  
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CHANCES OF RAIN ARE FOCUSED GENERALLY  
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MARION TO CLEVELAND TO ERIE, PA.  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AT GENERALLY UNDER A  
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS  
THE AREA ON SATURDAY, HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT AND DRY SLOT ALOFT  
EASTWARD. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH  
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL BY APPROXIMATELY 6C  
FROM FRIDAY'S VALUES LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S.  
 
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENTS WITH ONE MORE PIECE OF  
ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND CROSSING THE CENTRAL GREAT  
LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH WEST SOUTHWEST  
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. LAKE TO 850MB DELTA  
T REACH 18C SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. RAISED POPS TO 50-  
60 PERCENT ALONG THE LAKESHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY  
MORNING. THE DURATION OF WELL ALIGNED FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE ONLY  
LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GETTING DISRUPTED. HIGH PRESSURE  
EXPANDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS  
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WILL BUILD TO NEW  
ENGLAND THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY  
CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS REBOUND  
ALOFT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ON THE  
HORIZON TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH AND MID LEVEL  
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT MOSTLY ABOVE 10K FEET THROUGH THE  
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS  
THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
TONIGHT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OR IMPACT WILL  
BE WITH THE GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE  
12 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED ON FRIDAY. GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE 25 TO  
30 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON  
FRIDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND  
RAIN IN NE OH/NW PA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING  
WHILE A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THERE  
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN OF LAKE  
ERIE TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10  
KNOTS TONIGHT. AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS  
INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN  
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT REMAIN ELEVATED  
BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE. ANOTHER SET OF SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS HAS BEEN ISSUED FRIDAY  
MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE  
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, WATER LEVELS IN THE WESTERN BASIN OF  
LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY DROP NEAR OR BELOW 6 INCHES ABOVE LOW WATER  
DATUM, THE CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE NAVIGATION. WESTERLY WINDS  
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KNOTS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE  
LAKE THROUGH SUNDAY. VAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED  
THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 
 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE  
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ010>012-089.  
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE  
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ001.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR  
LEZ142>144.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR  
LEZ145>149.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...10  
NEAR TERM...10  
SHORT TERM...10  
LONG TERM...10  
AVIATION...77  
MARINE...13/SEFCOVIC  
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