692  
FXUS61 KCLE 141933  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
333 PM EDT WED APR 14 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN ELONGATED 1014MB LOW EAST OF  
LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO WESTERN NEW YORK. IN  
ADDITION, A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM MICHIGAN THUMB TO  
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST  
WINDS 10 KNOTS WERE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER,  
WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 WERE COMMON  
BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A DEEP LOW OVER  
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY  
SHOWED CLOUD COVER FROM MINNESOTA TO MICHIGAN. THIS UPPER LEVEL  
LOW WILL MOVE EAST DRAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS  
THE AREA TONIGHT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO  
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST THROUGH  
FRIDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS ON THE BACK SIDE OR WEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS  
EXPECTED ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS  
WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWER THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO  
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT, SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN  
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMS. IN ADDITION, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE  
ON THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OCCURRING THURSDAY EVENING AND  
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER  
HEIGHTS AND LOWERED THICKNESS VALUES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW  
MAY YIELD A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS/GRAUPEL ACROSS  
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS  
TIME, ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN INCH.  
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY,  
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA BEFORE MOVING EAST OFF  
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN  
SHOWERS, PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF  
NW PA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WILL AFFECT THE SNOW BELT THROUGH EARLY  
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING, AS A TROUGH SWINGS AROUND THE UPPER  
LOW SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE  
REGION. BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AREA LATE  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A FILLING UPPER LOW MOVES EAST  
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THIS COULD  
BRING A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO TO THE AREA, BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT  
THE FORECAST DRY WITH THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA  
AND GIVEN THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A  
BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, MAINTAINING IT THROUGH THE AREA  
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP POSSIBLE, SO TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE  
WATCHED FOR A FORECAST ADJUSTMENT IF NECESSARY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL  
BE IN THE MID 40S ACROSS NW PA TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ACROSS NW  
OH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AWAY FROM THE  
LAKE, AND THE LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE. FROST POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS  
POINT DESPITE CALM WINDS AND THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ENOUGH CLOUD  
COVER EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE FROST DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO  
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS WELL. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S  
TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE AREA, WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SATURDAY NIGHT  
FOR LOWS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH  
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT SETTLE ACROSS THE  
REGION SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED, MAINLY DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE  
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT  
MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS  
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONT AND SOME COLDER AIR  
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE WARMEST DAY MONDAY BEING  
NEAR NORMAL.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVES  
SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE  
A BIT OUT OF THE WEST THURSDAY AND WILL THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY  
FRIDAY, GENERALLY UP TO/AROUND 15 KTS AND 2-4 FT WAVES POSSIBLE.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT THE  
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE IF  
WINDS INCREASE A BIT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER/MORE VARIABLE  
OR SLIGHTLY NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER THE LAKE.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FZ  
NEAR TERM...FZ  
SHORT TERM...GREENAWALT  
LONG TERM...GREENAWALT  
AVIATION...FZ  
MARINE...GREENAWALT  
 
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