396
FXUS61 KCLE 061818
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
218 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
POPPED UP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS CONVECTION TO WORK WITH. PWAT VALUES ARE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCH. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MEANDERING OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER FRIDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORMS WILL HEAVE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW MOVING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN BE
AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THAT WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WEAK FRONT WILL
SLOW DOWN AND MEANDER AROUND THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TAFS ARE CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN
OHIO THAT WILL IMPACT TOL AND KFDY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
COULD BRING DOWN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN SHOWERS IMPACT TERMINALS FURTHER EAST THROUGH 00Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE PLACEMENT, TIMING, AND ACTUAL
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS TO
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. CLE WILL HAVE WINDS FLIP TO
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE
BUT THEN WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR
EACH DAY.
MARINE
THE LAKE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY WITH LOW WAVES IN OFFSHORE FLOW.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL ENTER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING BRIEF NORTHWEST FLOW.
A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND EXTEND A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW
TO RETURN. THIS LOW WILL GET CLOSER TO THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND
ENHANCE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, POTENTIALLY GETTING TO 20 KTS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MARINE HEADLINES WITH THIS SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS STILL TIME TO IRON OUT DETAILS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...23
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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