158
FXUS61 KCLE 310819
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
419 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES, WINDS/GUSTS, RAIN CHANCES AND
AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THERE HAVE BEEN NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE GENERAL MESSAGING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE SEVERE.
2) A GENERAL 0.75 TO 1.50" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RAIN
MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING, MAINLY IN TYPICALLY MORE PRONE LOCATIONS.
3) THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER PUSH OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC
SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOWER-IMPACT
SYSTEM LOCALLY.
4) THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, DRAGGING A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. WARMER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1:
A COMBINATION OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AND DECAYING CONVECTION
MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND PORTIONS OF
ADJACENT NORTHERN OHIO/NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH GIVEN UPSTREAM RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS OVERNIGHT. AFTER THIS, THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW IF NOT
SEVERAL HOURS OF COMPLETELY DRY, WARM, AND BREEZY/WINDY WEATHER
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TIED
TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL SURGE WELL INTO THE MID-
UPPER 70S TODAY, WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY REACHING 80. WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH (STRONGEST WEST OF I-71) REMAIN LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OH.
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A NUMBER OF MODELS ON MONDAY SUGGESTED THAT CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA IN THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
TODAY, POTENTIALLY SPARKED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BACKED OFF ON
THIS SCENARIO, THOUGH SOME MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE RRFS) STILL DO
HAVE CONVECTION WELL-AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A FLAT
SHORTWAVE AND RIGHT-ENTRANCE QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL SPREAD GREATER LARGE SCALE LIFT IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT ALSO APPROACHES. THIS WILL
YIELD GREATER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, THOUGH IT WILL BE A RATHER
SHALLOW FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SHALLOW/SLOPED FRONTAL
SURFACE SHOULD CONTINUE SOME RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER CHANCES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH AND ENHANCES THE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTALLY, FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING BENEATH AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER (EML) PLUME WILL LIKELY YIELD VERY STEEP (8-9C/KM) 0-3KM
LAPSE RATES WITH MODERATELY STEEP (6.5-7.5C/KM) 500-700MB LAPSE
RATES ALOFT. HOWEVER, RATHER MODEST MOISTURE PROFILES WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY TO 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE, WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 1500 J/KG OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING CAN
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO A
RESPECTABLE 40-50KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCLUDING 30-40KT OF
0-3KM SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN THE
150-250 M2/S2 RANGE. GIVEN INITIALLY MODEST FORCING AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR VECTORS THAT CROSS THE INCOMING FRONT AT A 45-60 DEGREE ANGLE,
INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE CELLULAR/DISCRETE. GRADUALLY
INCREASING FORCING WITH TIME, ALONG WITH WELL-MIXED LOW-LEVELS
SUPPORTING SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION AND COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT, SHOULD
ALLOW FOR GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SMALL LINES/CLUSTERS THIS
EVENING. INITIAL CELLULAR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCLUDE ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND SOME SUPERCELLS, CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS. AS UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS, THE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL
DECREASE AS WIND POTENTIAL INCREASES. WHILE THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR CAN
SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLULAR AND QLCS TORNADOES, HIGH LCL HEIGHTS AND
VEERED SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE TORNADO RISK FAIRLY LIMITED.
THE SPC NOW HAS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL LEADING
THE WAY WITH TORNADOES A LOWER (BUT NON-ZERO) THREAT. THE MOST
LIKELY WINDOW FOR SEVERE IS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM COMING IN FROM
THE WEST, THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR MORE LIMITED ACTIVITY A
BIT EARLIER ACROSS NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA THAT MAY BRING AN
ISOLATED SEVERE RISK. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND CONVECTION GRADUALLY
WORKING OVER THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING SEVERE
POTENTIAL AFTER 10 PM, THOUGH SHEAR REMAINS STRONG OVERNIGHT SO ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED COULD POSE A LINGERING
ISOLATED THREAT THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES EVOLVE
AROUND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION POTENTIALLY WORKING OVER PARTS OF
THE AREA AND LIMITING THE LATER (AND LIKELY MAIN) CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. MODELS ALSO OFFER TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE
CONVECTION WILL FIRE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT AND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY
TRACK THROUGH OUR AREA. THE OVERALL SETUP CERTAINLY SUPPORTS SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH WITH SOME TYPICAL
CAVEATS/UNCERTAINTY, LIKELY MEANING THAT PARTS OF THE AREA WILL
LARGELY SKIRT AROUND TROUBLE (AS IS COMMON IN MOST SEVERE SETUPS).
KEY MESSAGE #2:
THUS FAR, WE'VE LUCKED OUT WITH HEAVIER RAIN OVERNIGHT ENDING UP
NORTH OF OUR AREA AND SAVING US INITIAL SOME RAIN/QPF. HOWEVER, THE
COMBINATION OF A SLOWLY SAGGING FRONT, DEEP-LAYER FLOW TRENDING MORE
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, SKINNY
INSTABILITY PROFILES (ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND), AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.25" (WHICH IS SAFELY
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) DO
SUGGEST THAT RAIN AMOUNTS MAY ADD UP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA WITH
FUTURE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE 0.75-1.50" OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH ON
ITS OWN WOULD CAUSE RIVER RISES AND PERHAPS PUSH A COUPLE OF PRONE
POINTS TOWARDS MINOR FLOOD. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED CORRIDORS OF 2-3" OF
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY TRAINING OCCURS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND PERHAPS SOME RIVER FLOODING IF ENOUGH OF
A BASIN SEES THOSE KINDS OF TOTALS. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IMPACTS REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME, THOUGH WILL
NEED TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME LIMITED IMPACTS IN MIND
AND MONITOR RAINFALL TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE #3:
THE NEXT TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THIS
TROUGH TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER (FAIRLY WEAK) AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO ON
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWER (AND
PERHAPS SOME THUNDER) POTENTIAL CONTINUES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH DRIER WEATHER SPREADING IN
FROM THE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH. IT IS NOW LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES
BACK THROUGH ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT, AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES QUICKLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, PERIODIC SHOWER AND
THUNDER CHANCES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
OCCASIONAL RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT
WILL TREND QUITE WARM ON THURSDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA LIKELY TO
SEE HIGHS TOP OUT BETWEEN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S. FRIDAY ALSO
LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO AGAIN BE IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA, GIVEN THE
FRONT TRENDING TOWARDS NOT EVEN MOVING BACK THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT.
OVERALL, THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME DOESN'T LOOK EXTREMELY
CONCERNING FROM A SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAIN PERSPECTIVE. HOWEVER,
IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED OVERALL WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE #4:
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE FORMIDABLE UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SWING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. LOCALLY, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS EVOLUTION WILL DRAG A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM, SO SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH ANY COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED OVER THE COMING DAYS. WITH THAT SAID, AN
OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD HELP LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL TO AN
EXTENT. EITHER WAY, MUCH CHILLIER AND GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER LIKELY
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN EFFICIENT WARM SECTOR EARLY THIS MORNING IS ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AND KEEPING RAIN WELL TO THE NORTH FOR NOW. WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE MIXING TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KTS. WILL MAINTAIN A LLWS IN THE TAFS AS THERE IS SOME
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT IT IS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES. THERE IS SOME RAIN AND AN ISOLATED TS OVER
SW MICHIGAN THIS MORNING, BUT IT SHOULD FIZZLE OUT OR MISS KTOL.
THEREFORE, HAVE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR ALL
OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO MIX
DOWN AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS REMAIN ON THE TABLE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST AND ENTER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE
TWO WAVES OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING THAT WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
TERMINALS AND HAVE A BROADER RAIN MENTION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH PROB30S AND TEMPOS FOR THE BETTER WINDOWS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND NON-VFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE CONVECTION
TONIGHT, THE CEILING TREND WILL BE TO NON-VFR WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS INTO
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
A WARM FRONT LIES NORTH OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND WHILE THE
WARM SECTOR IS DOING WELL WITH WINDS ON LAND. WINDS ON THE LAKE
ARE A TOUCH MUTED WITH THE DOME OF COLDER AIR THANKS TO CHILLY
LAKE TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE A 15 TO 20
KT WIND FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OMIT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH. THIS
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED EASTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO
THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY, ENHANCING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW A TOUCH.
THIS LOW WILL PASS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON FRIDAY,
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT
BACK NORTH WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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