271
FXUS61 KCLE 191918
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
318 PM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BY MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
QUIET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING AN AREA OF MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY,
USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS SATURDAY NIGHT, CHARACTERIZED
BY 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BETWEEN -6 AND -8 DEGREES C.
THINK THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A PORTION OF THE INTERIOR WILL
EXPERIENCE BRIEF FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES IN ADDITION TO SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.
LESS OF A CHANCE TO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR NE OH
AND NW PA WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND LAKE-EFFECT CLOUD
COVER.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 50S ON SATURDAY
COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO PERHAPS 30 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FURTHER INTO
THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT, AS MENTIONED IN THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONTROL THE
MONDAY WEATHER WITH WESTERLY WINDS, A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN, BUT COOL
READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST INTO NW PA. WINDS
EASE GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FORECAST FOR LOWER TO MID
30S, AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR FROST ACROSS THE AREA AND EVEN A
FREEZE IN PORTIONS OF THE PA COUNTIES. AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND
SLIGHT 850MB TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IN MODEST LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO MONDAY BUMPS UP THE TEMPERATURES TO THE MID 50S-LOWER
60S RANGE AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STILL IS EXHIBITING SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL
MODEL SPREAD IN BOTH TIMING, TRACK, AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
OVERALL TREND IS COOLER INTO MIDWEEK WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH EITHER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT, A WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROST
RISK, AND TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MIXED-BAG OF VFR, MVFR, AND IFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS. LINGERING IFR/MVFR WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH PERHAPS SOME 5KFT SCT TO BKN CEILINGS ARRIVING BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON,
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUESDAY. NON-VFR MAY
PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE WEST
TO 15-25KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RESPONDING AND BUILDING TO 3-6FT FOR
MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY 15-20KTS
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WAVE HEIGHTS TO
2-4FT, THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY 10-20KTS, TAKING THE HIGHER
WAVE HEIGHTS MAINLY OFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE MONDAY,
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY 15-20KTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...26
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