821
FXUS61 KCLE 012044
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
444 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RESIDUAL FLOODING ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS DUE TO RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH
MAY SLOW DOWN THE WATER RUNOFF THROUGH OUR LOCAL DRAINAGE
BASINS. AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OSCILLATING SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING WHICH COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A COLDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1:
OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND STORMY AT TIMES
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
CHARTS SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING FIRMLY OVER
OFF THE EAST COAST AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. THIS WEATHER PATTERN AND SETUP WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH UNTIL
LATER THIS WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT THAT RECENT CAME THROUGH THE AREA IS NOW DOWN
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE IT STARTS TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. WE
HAVE A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERHEAD IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH
A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OVER
RUNNING FLOW OVER THE STALLING FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS LATE THIS EVENING. BUT AS THE WARM
FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST OHIO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON TOP OF SOGGY GROUND
CONDITIONS MAY DELAY OR SLOW DOWN THE DRAINAGE OF FLOOD WATERS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING BACK TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH-RES FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A FEW
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERAL T'STORMS MAY
POP UP AROUND THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND TRY TO MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THE SETUP FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY WILL STAY MOSTLY WEST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NWOH LATE THURSDAY EVENING, THE
OVERALL DYNAMICS AND SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH AS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF
WESTERN OHIO. SPC AS THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD INTO NWOH IN
A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 THREAT) FOR SEEING A COUPLE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. IF THE CONVECTION CAN REMAIN ORGANIZED INTO
NWOH, THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL LOSE SUPPORT
FOR MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OUT
NEARBY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NWPA ON FRIDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN SPRING LIKE ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
REMAIN IN THE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
OSCILLATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA BEFORE IT LIFTS BACK
OUT AS A WARM FRONT.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING STRONG COLD FRONT.
WE WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND STORM
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY REACH THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING 80
DEGREES. WHILE IT IS STILL 3 DAYS OUT UNTIL THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA, MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. WE WILL MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS AND THAT POTENTIAL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD CAUSE ANOTHER ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE #2:
AFTER THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT, WE HAVE A
BIG WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL BE COLDER AND NOT FEELING
SO SPRING LIKE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK . BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH OFF AND ON
SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM MOISTURE COMING OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE
COLD TROUGH. GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MIXED-BAG OF MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN. FURTHER DETERIORATION TO
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN LOW CEILINGS AND/OR FOG. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED, 10 TO 12 KNOTS, OVERNIGHT, BEFORE ABRUPTLY SHIFTING
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, THEN SOUTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
LOW CEILINGS.
MARINE
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE NORTHEAST
WINDS (18 TO 20 KNOTS) ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE LAKE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, SHIFTING FLOW BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ELEVATED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE
NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT USHERS IN
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ON SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
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