989
FXUS61 KCLE 240728
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
328 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE CONVECTION TODAY, AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW END POP COVERAGE PRIOR TO THE MAIN LINE WITH THE
COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES TO THE CWA LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
2) HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM/COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH BRINGS THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER FAR NE OH/NW PA TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WARM SECTOR
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AREAWIDE EQUATES TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT STILL ENOUGH
FOR A CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY. IMPEDING THE THREAT TO SOME DEGREE
WILL BE A DECAYING LOW LEVEL JET AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND SHARP
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THERE WILL BE A
MODEST AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE ALONG WITH THE TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION, BUT THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN RISING
AIR WOULD HAVE TO OVERCOME. THIS IS A LOW THREAT OVERALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT NOT ZERO, AND HAVE A LARGE COVERAGE OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE MAIN BATCH OF CONVECTION
WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN THE FLOW ALOFT ABRUPTLY TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FINALLY COMES INTO THE
MIX. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE LOWER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL
BE PHASING OUT, AND ONLY A SLIVER OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN,
AROUND 30-35KTS. WITH JUST ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-30KTS
AND COLUMN RH INCREASING, SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A WIND
THREAT IS POSSIBLE. THIS WIND THREAT MAY BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT
THE ONSET LATER THIS EVENING AS INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WILL DOMINATE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER STRUCTURE PRIOR TO THE SATURATING IN
PRECIPITATION. SOME POPS LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITHOUT A THUNDER
THREAT WITH THE EXITING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
FALL OFF 10-20 DEGREES FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, REBOUNDING AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS MONDAY, AND THIS IS
WHEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL REALLY BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR
MONDAY, AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM SOUTHWEST FOR LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS THE NEXT CONVECTIVE CHANCE FOR
THE CWA WITH POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZATION AS IT LOOKS TO BE A
STRONGER OVERALL SURFACE SYSTEM, BUT THESE DETAILS WILL COME OUT
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES DROP FOR THE MIDDLE/END
OF THE WEEK IN WHAT COULD BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THIS TAF PERIOD AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER IN THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
WESTERN TERMINALS AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING
EAST INTO THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
REMAINS ELEVATED. DIMINISHED VISIBILITIES TO MVFR DISTANCES ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND
AFTER. POST FRONTAL, TERMINALS WILL ALL LIKELY DIMINISH TO MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE INCREASING TO
5-10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE KCLE AND KERI WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED BY A
LIGHT LAKE BREEZE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AT KCLE COMPARED TO
KERI, BUT GIVEN THE LATE TIMING OF THE FRONT, IT IS POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 KNOTS BUT SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY.
MARINE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL IMPACT LAKE ERIE
TODAY, ALLOWING WAVES TO BUILD TO 1-2 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN BASINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOUR, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO GAIN A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT BUT REMAINS 5-10 KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WINDS RAMP UP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS
LOOK TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, WHICH MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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