226
FXUS61 KCLE 122255
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
655 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A POTENT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS EXIST.
2) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRESENT MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
3) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ALTHOUGH THIS WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER WISE, MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER SPECIFICALLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOOKING AT THE OVERALL SET UP, THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US THAT BEGINS TO PIVOT AS A RELATIVELY WEAK
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, AMPLE WAA WILL PERSIST
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE REGION. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY, A STRONG LLJ OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL NUDGE
ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION.
MODELED HODOGRAPHS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INITIAL STORMS COULD
BE ISOLATED AND HAVE SUPERCELL FEATURES BEFORE MERGING INTO A MORE
LINEAR LINE. GIVEN THIS, ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF TORNADOES. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM ONCE IT GETS WITHIN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE TIME FRAME TO
PINPOINT MORE SPECIFICALLY TIMING AND HAZARD CONCERNS.
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS
MEDIUM AT BEST AS OF THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
EVENT COMES FROM THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
THE LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER MAY IMPACT THE THREAT LATER IN THE
DAY. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST AMPLE DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH
MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT IF
CLOUDS LINGER THE CAP MAY BE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. AS OF
NOW, SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK
WITH A SMALL SLIVER NEAR THE TOLEDO METRO IN A SLIGHT RISK. IN
ADDITION, WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF NW OH IN A MARGINAL DAY 3
ERO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY BEFORE A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALMOST
EVERYDAY GOING FORWARD. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER DEEPENING TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA, PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES. THESE SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE, MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.
ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE NOTES ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE
TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF STORM POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS WHEN DESTABILIZATION IS
MOST LIKELY. GIVEN THE PERSIST WAA AND GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE WHICH WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
HEAVY RAIN MAY POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
CONCERN GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEMS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, THERE WILL ALSO BE MULTIPLE
DAYS WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LLJS THAT PUSH
NORTH IN THE AREA. GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT UNLESS
DECOUPLING OCCURS. IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MORAL
OF THE STORY, THE WEATHER WILL BE VERY ACTIVE IN THE COMING WEEK,
BUT DON'T EXPECT EVERYDAY TO BE A COMPLETE WASH OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SPRING LOOKS TO STICK AROUND INTO THE NEAR FUTURE AS ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND BEYOND. CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLING INTO THE 60S.
LOOKING PAST THIS WEEK, CPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE 8-
14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO LIKELY BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
AS REFERENCE, THE AVERAGE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF UPDATE WILL BE
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR OVERNIGHT. OVERALL VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS THAT MOVE
IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FOR TOL, FDY, AND
MFD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WE HAVE MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z AT
ALL TAF SITES. THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL
CAUSE ANY IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS A
TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE LAKE AND A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. HAVE ISSUED A SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
WEST END OF THE LAKE MIDNIGHT - 10AM AND EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE
MIDNIGHT - 4PM. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE
COLDER WATERS ON THE EAST HALF. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING ENOUGH
WIND/MIXING TO AVOID LOW VISIBILITIES BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
MONDAY. WE REMAIN IN A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR LEZ146>149.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...77
MARINE...10
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page