101  
FXUS61 KCLE 220824  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
424 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL  
CONTINUE EAST TO THE EAST COAST TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A  
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL  
ALLOW FOR A WARMER AND DRIER MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS  
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERRUN THE AREA.  
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS  
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 2-4 C RANGE BUT HIGH  
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY WILL FEEL QUITE  
TOASTY. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WOULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER AS  
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL GET INTO THE  
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR US TO LOSE THE SUN FOR A BIT,  
BUT WILL STAY DRY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA  
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST FOLKS. THE EXCEPTION  
WILL BE IN THE SNOW BELT REGION AS LAKE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH  
COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE STILL WARM LAKE.  
 
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL  
APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME DECENT  
SUPPORT ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT  
LAKES, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD  
WET WEATHER. THEREFORE, WILL LEAVE POPS LIMITED TO THE SNOW BELT  
AREA FOR TUESDAY, WHERE THE LAKE WILL HELP MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE SOME INSTABILITY IN ANY LAKE  
ENHANCED SHOWERS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR SOME  
SPOTS DURING THE DAY AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE  
LAKE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY  
THAN MONDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A SECONDARY PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER  
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY  
WILL INCREASE OVER LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES  
TO COOL. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT  
WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST END OF THE  
LAKE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED. RAISED POPS ACROSS FAR  
NE OHIO AND INTO NW PA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS DOWNWIND OF LAKE  
ERIE WILL BE MODIFIED BY THE WARMER FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND WENT  
CLOSER TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE A COUPLE  
DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE. COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL MIXING IN  
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE  
INLAND AREAS OF NW PA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED UNLESS  
TEMPERATURES END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.  
 
THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE  
AIRMASS DRYING. SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO OHIO AS THEY  
TAPER OFF. MOISTURE OFF LAKE HURON WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AROUND  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OHIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEARING AS HIGH  
CLOUDS RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS  
ONLY IN THE 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
JUST AS ONE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, THE NEXT WILL  
BE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES,  
MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC  
COAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS WITH  
RESPECT TO TRACK. THE 00Z/22 GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE OFFSHORE WHILE  
THE 00Z GEM/ECMWF SHOW IT CURLING WESTWARD INTO NEW YORK ON  
SATURDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE FAVORED GIVEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO  
THE WEST AND ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED WEST INTO THE  
AREA. HAVE ADDED/INCREASED POPS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY  
WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS LIQUID.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  
LOWER STRATUS CONTINUES LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA  
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS UNDER 5000 FEET REMAIN IN THE  
VICINITY OF KERI AND FAR NE OHIO/NW PA BUT ANY LOWER CEILINGS  
WILL QUICKLY DISAPPEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS  
THE AREA. SOME MOISTURE COMING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL  
ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO RETURN, AROUND 5000 FEET, BUT  
NOTHING NON-VFR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE  
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA, BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL  
PROBABLY BE IN THE SNOW BELT REGION OF NE OHIO AND NW PA. AT  
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THERE IS STILL  
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE AND TIMING.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW PA  
TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AHEAD OF  
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL  
CONTINUE EAST AND PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON  
TUESDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE  
NORTHWEST. WAVES WILL START TO BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY, THEN START TO  
INCREASE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE  
WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON PORTIONS OF  
THE LAKE TONIGHT, EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD  
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING IMPROVING  
MARINE CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC  
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC  
SHORT TERM...KEC  
LONG TERM...KEC  
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC  
MARINE...KEC  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab PA Page Main Text Page