246
FXUS61 KCLE 021122
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
722 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. NEAR
RECORD HEAT EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR
NORTHERN OHIO AND HEAT ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
2) DAILY CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN THIS EVENING ONWARD WITH BETTER PROBABILITY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LARGE SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OR "HEAT DOME" IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. TOLEDO AND CLEVELAND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF EITHER TO BREAK OR TIE THEIR DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THURSDAY, JULY 2ND. ALL THE OTHER DAILY CLIMATE SITES WILL
BE CLOSER TO THEIR RECORD HIGHS, WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES. SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO. THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE
BETWEEN 100 AND 108 DEGREES LATER TODAY. FRIDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AND THE
HEAT INDEX BETWEEN 100 AND 107. THE ONGOING EXTREME HEAT WARNING
AND HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED. THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
AND FLATTEN OUT BY THE WEEKEND AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT STILL RATHER HOT
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THIS WEEKEND. BY EARLY AND MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE WARM
WEATHER FOR EARLY JULY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE FIRST CHANCE FOR A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NEOH AND NWPA. THE
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE 20 TO 30 PERCENT AT BEST. THERE WILL BE
A LITTLE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRY TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING WHICH COULD SPARK OFF SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. LATER ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL START TO PULL AWAY ALLOWING FOR THE MAIN
WESTERLIES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SPC HAS MENTIONED
OUR ENTIRE AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ANY OF THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THAT WESTERLIES FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE MAX
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. A LINGERING MID
LEVEL TROUGH MAY HANG OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND BRING THE CHANCE FOR DAILY POP-UP
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. WE WILL HOLD ON TO DAILY POPS OF 20
TO 30 PERCENT INTO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FEW CLOUDS AT FL035-050 POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT LIKELY NO CEILINGS
ONCE AGAIN. NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DAY OR
SO. WINDS AT TOL/FDY COULD GUST 15-20KTS, BUT FOR TERMINALS
FURTHER EAST, SHOULD STAY NEAR OR BELOW 12KTS. CLEARING AGAIN
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A FOOT OR LESS IN THE NEARSHORE
ZONES OF LAKE ERIE. WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER
SUNDAY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AROUND
10KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 1-2FT. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
VERY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. RECORD
WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE CHALLENGED. HERE ARE THOSE RECORDS
FOR EACH OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS:
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963)
07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)
07-04 100(2012) 96(2012) 98(1990) 99(1911) 99(1897) 99(1990)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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