101
FXUS61 KCLE 220824
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
424 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2018
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL
CONTINUE EAST TO THE EAST COAST TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMER AND DRIER MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERRUN THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 2-4 C RANGE BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY WILL FEEL QUITE
TOASTY. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TODAY WOULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER AS
THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL GET INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR US TO LOSE THE SUN FOR A BIT,
BUT WILL STAY DRY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST FOLKS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE IN THE SNOW BELT REGION AS LAKE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH
COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE STILL WARM LAKE.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME DECENT
SUPPORT ALOFT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD
WET WEATHER. THEREFORE, WILL LEAVE POPS LIMITED TO THE SNOW BELT
AREA FOR TUESDAY, WHERE THE LAKE WILL HELP MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE SOME INSTABILITY IN ANY LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR SOME
SPOTS DURING THE DAY AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
LAKE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY
THAN MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A SECONDARY PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE OVER LAKE ERIE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO COOL. THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST END OF THE
LAKE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED. RAISED POPS ACROSS FAR
NE OHIO AND INTO NW PA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE WILL BE MODIFIED BY THE WARMER FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND WENT
CLOSER TO RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE. COULD SEE SOME GRAUPEL MIXING IN
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE
INLAND AREAS OF NW PA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED UNLESS
TEMPERATURES END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.
THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER MORE NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
AIRMASS DRYING. SHOWERS MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD INTO OHIO AS THEY
TAPER OFF. MOISTURE OFF LAKE HURON WILL HELP KEEP CLOUDS AROUND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OHIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS CLEARING AS HIGH
CLOUDS RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
JUST AS ONE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, THE NEXT WILL
BE STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES,
MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO TRACK. THE 00Z/22 GFS KEEPS THIS FEATURE OFFSHORE WHILE
THE 00Z GEM/ECMWF SHOW IT CURLING WESTWARD INTO NEW YORK ON
SATURDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE FAVORED GIVEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO
THE WEST AND ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED WEST INTO THE
AREA. HAVE ADDED/INCREASED POPS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS LIQUID.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
LOWER STRATUS CONTINUES LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS UNDER 5000 FEET REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF KERI AND FAR NE OHIO/NW PA BUT ANY LOWER CEILINGS
WILL QUICKLY DISAPPEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME MOISTURE COMING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO RETURN, AROUND 5000 FEET, BUT
NOTHING NON-VFR. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA, BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL
PROBABLY BE IN THE SNOW BELT REGION OF NE OHIO AND NW PA. AT
THIS POINT, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AS THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE AND TIMING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW PA
TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE EAST AND PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. WAVES WILL START TO BUILD OFFSHORE TODAY, THEN START TO
INCREASE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE TONIGHT, EXPANDING TO ALL AREAS FROM THE ISLANDS EASTWARD
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING IMPROVING
MARINE CONDITIONS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...KEC
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