830  
FXUS61 KCLE 210211  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
911 PM EST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL  
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY  
AS IT DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SUNDAY, LOW  
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL BRING MILD  
AIR AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
UPDATE...MOST OF THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST REMAINS VALID. LIGHT  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE  
LAKE ERIE SHORE FROM ROUGHLY CUYAHOGA COUNTY EASTWARD THROUGH  
NORTHWEST PA AS A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING  
FLOW OF COLD AIR CROSSES THE LAKE. BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE  
MODEL GUIDANCE, EXPECT THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO END GRADUALLY  
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING AS  
A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION  
CAUSE ALREADY WEAK LAKE-INDUCED CAPE TO WANE. MADE MINOR  
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, QPF, SNOWFALL, AND SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR  
THE EXPECTATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LASTING SEVERAL HOURS  
LONGER THAN FORECAST PREVIOUSLY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION  
IS EXPECTED.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER IA THIS  
AFTERNOON AND COVERED MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL US. THIS HIGH WILL  
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS TO EASTERN  
TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE  
THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE NEAR  
TERM. FOR THIS EVENING HOWEVER, COLD AIR OVER LAKE ERIE WILL  
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO  
THE SNOWBELT REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED  
HOWEVER A SNOW SHOWERS COULD DROP A QUICK HALF INCH IN LOCAL  
AREAS OF INLAND NWRN PA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THERE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN  
CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS, WILL DROP LOWS BELOW  
GUIDANCE TONIGHT GIVEN DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN OR APPROACHING  
SINGLE DIGITS. WILL HAVE MOST AREAS 8 TO 10 DEGREES WITH 10 TO  
15 CLOSE TO THE LAKE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RECOVER TO THE LOW TO  
MID 30S. INCREASING WINDS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE  
AXIS DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER BETTER MIXED AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS LOW. GIVEN  
THIS HAVE REMAINED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL  
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE. A VERY MINOR DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL YIELD  
SOME CIRRUS EARLY SUNDAY, WITH A SLOW AND STEADY INCREASE IN  
CLOUD COVER THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE  
FIRST SYSTEM IN DAYS APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES OVER  
THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE 40S WITH A FEW  
TOUCHING 50 ON SUNDAY.  
 
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT  
AND CARRY THROUGH A PORTION OF NEXT WORK WEEK. HAVE BROADLY BRUSHED  
60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCES FOR MONDAY WITH MORE REFINEMENTS AND  
SPECIFICS TO COME WITH FUTURE FORECASTS AND A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN  
STORM TRACK.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
FOR NOW THE STORM TRACK CONSENSUS IS ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN  
OH ON TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING NORTH  
ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS WOULD IMPACT LOWS IN PARTICULAR MONDAY  
NIGHT AND HIGHS TUESDAY. CANNOT NUDGE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER JUST  
YET SO HAVE CONTINUED THE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30S  
AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. QUESTIONS REMAIN AFTER  
THIS INITIAL WAVE PULLS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM  
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GENERATING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT  
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO TN VALLEY.  
THIS WILL LIKELY BE A COLDER SCENARIO FOR THE LOCAL AREA. AFTER  
A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT, BROADLY  
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT/THURSDAY FOR THIS LOW AND BRING THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TO  
THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM  
WITH COLD AIR ACROSS THE LAKES AND CYCLONIC FLOW FOR SOME LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY WILL HAVE FALLEN  
BACK TO AROUND 30 FOR HIGHS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR REGION AS THE  
PARENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM IA TO AR. THIS WILL CAUSE  
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE BREEZES TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH  
TIME. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE NO STRONGER THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS  
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND VFR ARE  
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTH-  
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY  
POCKETS OF BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER  
BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z/FRI. ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE  
EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BETWEEN 05Z AND 12Z/FRI.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AND/OR RAIN  
EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT TO  
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BACK TO  
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE  
GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST BETWEEN THAT HIGH AND THE STORM TRACK  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND JAMES BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 30  
KNOTS EAST OF LONG POINT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. BETWEEN MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY TO THE LOWER LAKES WITH WINDS ON LAKE ERIE RESPONDING  
BASED ON THE SYSTEMS EVENTUAL TRACK EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE  
LAKE. FOR NOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS LOW NEAR OR  
SOUTH OF THE LAKE THEREFORE THE FORECAST REFLECTS A WIND SHIFT  
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...TK  
NEAR TERM...JASZKA/TK  
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN  
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN  
AVIATION...JASZKA  
MARINE...OUDEMAN  
 
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