332
FXUS61 KCLE 201732
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1232 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
..18Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
DENSE FREEZING FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWEST INTO NW PA AND
FAR NE OH, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30 DEGREES.
THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR
CRAWFORD PA, INLAND ASHTABULA, TRUMBULL, AND MAHONING COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING, THE AREA IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH
DECOUPLING TO GET SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM. WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING, ANY FOG MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLICK SPOTS TO
DEVELOP, IF IT BECOMES PERSISTENT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO SEE IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL
BE NEEDED, BUT THE BULK OF THE ISSUES APPEARS TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE AREA REMAINING IN THE TRANSITIONAL ZONE BETWEEN SYSTEMS
TODAY, EXPECTING CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL. THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE
NORTH AND SOME SLIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ENTER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THERE COULD BE A COUPLE SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA. OVERALL, NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AND NOT WORTH MORE
THAN A A 20 PERCENT POP. THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND POPS WILL INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AN THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
ONCE THIS FEATURE CLEARS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL ALSO CLEAR AS THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE EAST. THEREFORE, WILL HAVE CHANCE/LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT TO DRY ON SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL START COOLER IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY WITH THE INITIAL COLD
PUSH BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SUNDAY WILL MIGRATE EAST AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TOWARD NORMAL IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEXT WEEK WILL START DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND
OFFER A PATTERN-CHANGING BLOW TO THE REGION WITH A TRANSITION
BACK TO COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
LOW, WHICH WOULD ALTER BOTH THE RAIN TIMING AND THE INTENSITY OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW, WILL HAVE A
FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS ON TUESDAY, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE WETTEST WINDOW TIMING SHIFTS LATER AND/OR WINDS INCREASE FOR
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERALL MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONDITIONS VARY FROM VFR TO LIFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
YNG IS SLOWLY COMING OUT OF LIFR CEILINGS FROM MORNING DENSE
FOG. CONDITIONS AT YNG WILL ONLY IMPROVE INTO THE LOWER END OF
MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE IFR CEILINGS MOVE
BACK IN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OTHER TAF SITES
LIKE TOL, MFD, AND CAK WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER END MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF IFR CEILINGS
COMING BACK LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE
CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR TO LOWER END MVFR THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TOWARDS LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY OR BY THE END OF THIS 24
HOURS TAF PERIOD BUT STAYING IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. SOME LIGHT
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT FOR MFD BETWEEN 2SM AND
5SM. ALSO LIGHT FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AT CAK AND YNG BETWEEN
3SM AND 5SM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST WITH LOW STRATUS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND LIKELY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN, FLOW BECOMES MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
AS WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...77
MARINE...15
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