090
FXUS61 KCLE 012323
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
723 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES ERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
2) FALL RETURNS LATE FRIDAY AND PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PRIME
THE AREA FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS ROBUST SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED
WITH STRONG MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AS A TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS US. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
PUSHING OVER THE REGION COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS RECENTLY, NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING. FINALLY, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
STRONG BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND BRING WITH IT MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER LIMITED FORCING AND
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY, A
DOMINANT HIGH RETURNS AND WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S BEFORE SOME HIGHS IN THE
50S CREEP INTO NWPA EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF FROST NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AREAWIDE
VFR CIGS/VIS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR VIS AND IFR CIGS IN RAIN
SHOWERS AND BR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY
MORNING/FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18-20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WHILE REMAINING
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW, WAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 3-5 FEET. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A CALM PERIOD OF CONDITIONS
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS SECOND
COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KNOTS AND WILL LIKELY BUILD WAVES IN EXCESS
OF 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT-FUSED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
AREA AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR CALMER MARINE CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LEZ144>148.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...13
MARINE...04
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