263
FXUS61 KCLE 171737
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1237 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT AND SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY APPROACHES FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE THE ONGOING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS, MAINLY AFFECTING NW PA. A COLD, CYCLONIC NW FLOW
CONTINUES THIS MORNING BENEATH A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
MID/UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE
WAKE OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS IS SUPPLYING SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR AND A MULTI-LAKE FETCH
ACROSS LAKES SUPERIOR, HURON, AND ERIE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SO FAR, ACCUMULATIONS FROM
SNOW SPOTTERS IN NW PA HAVE BEEN UNDERWHELMING, WITH MOST AREAS
UNDER 1 INCH. ONE REASON FOR THIS HAS BEEN THAT THE COLDER AIR
AND BETTER ASSOCIATED LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO BOTH THE FLOW OFF
THE WARM LAKES AND OUR REGION ONLY BEING GRAZED BY THE COLDEST
POOL OF 850 MB TEMPS (WHICH IS SLIDING THROUGH NY AND NEW
ENGLAND). THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO CONTINUE NEAR
THE LAKESHORE AND IN LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS OF INLAND ERIE AND NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES NOT
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW UNTIL MID EVENING, EFFECTIVELY
DELAYING THE START OF BETTER ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SHOULD CHANGE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION FURTHER DEEPENS
ALLOWING 850 MB TEMPS TO DIP TO -7 TO -8 C BY 12Z. THIS WILL
RAISE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO 10-11 THOUSAND FEET AND
HELP TO GENERATE 300-350 J/KG OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY AS
STILL SUGGESTED BY RAP BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WHEN COMBINING
THIS WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND WELL-ALIGNED FLOW, LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW SHOULD INTENSIFY EARLY THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH
MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF OMEGA
(LIFT) AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE DGZ, SO A PERIOD OF
1/2 TO 3/4" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE STILL ON THE TABLE IN
UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN ERIE AND NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD
COUNTIES. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN
MULTI-LAKE FEEDER BAND. CURRENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW THIS BAND
FINALLY SWINGING INTO EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES, AND
THE 00Z HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD BRIEFLY SWING AS
FAR WEST AS THE OHIO BORDER BY 12Z BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING BACK
EAST AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS. WITH THIS BEING SAID,
WENT WITH TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES TODAY, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 7 OR 8
INCHES IN EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF INLAND ERIE AND NE
CRAWFORD COUNTIES WHERE THE BAND SHOULD HANG OUT THE LONGEST.
HOWEVER, ANYTHING ABOVE 6 INCHES WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DELAYED START TO THIS EVENT, SO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD. FARTHER WEST ACROSS LAKE,
GEAUGA, AND ASHTABULA COUNTIES IN OHIO, OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, BUT NOTABLY DRIER AIR
AND THE SHORT FETCH WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO A TRACE TO
FEW TENTHS AT MOST.
THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND PUSH EAST INTO
WESTERN NY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS MID/UPPER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILD
NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LINGERED POPS A LITTLE LONGER IN NW
PA EARLY TONIGHT FOR LEFTOVER FLURRIES, BUT THE BULK OF THE SNOW
WILL BE DONE BY 21Z. OTHERWISE, A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN FAR NE OHIO
AND NW PA AND MID/UPPER 40S IN NW OHIO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S IN NE OHIO AND NW PA TO THE LOW 30S IN NW
OHIO.
THE KEY WORD TO THAT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TONIGHT IS BRIEF
BECAUSE IT WILL QUICKLY EXIT ALLOWING A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE AND WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO APPROACH
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE, BRINGING SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THIS LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC
OVERRUNNING SITUATION, WITH A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND WELL NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AT THE ONSET OR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING TRANSITIONING
TO MAINLY RAIN BY MIDDAY. ADDED A LITTLE SLEET NEAR U.S. 30 AND
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS REGION IN THE ROUGHLY 13-17Z TIMEFRAME
GIVEN A BETTER CHANCE FOR A BRIEF WARM NOSE DOWN THERE, BUT IT
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG, AND THE COLD DOES NOT LOOK SHALLOW ENOUGH
FOR ANY ICING BEFORE THE WARMER AIR WINS OUT ALTOGETHER. THIS
SHOULD BE A LOW IMPACT SYSTEM, WITH ANY FROZEN PRECIP ONLY
ACCUMULATING A TRACE OR LESS AND TOTAL QPF OF 0.25 INCHES OR
LESS, BUT IT WILL MAKE FOR A COLD, DAMP TUESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR MID
NOVEMBER, WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S. THE
HIGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST ON THURSDAY THOUGH AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN AN
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THIS
IS WHEN THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST STARTS TO DECREASE GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM JETS LATE IN THE WEEK, SO KEPT NBM POPS OF INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SPLIT, ZONAL
FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MILD THOUGH, SO NO FROZEN PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. IN FACT, HIGHS THURSDAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE WEEKEND IN TERMS OF ANY PRECIP
CHANCES AND TIMING OF POTENTIAL SYSTEMS AS VERY ACTIVE SPLIT
FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE. YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MAY CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT HOW FAR NORTH IT CAN TRACK
DEPENDS ON ANY PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM, SO KEPT NBM
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF A DRY DAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
FRIDAY AND GENERALLY UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR TO START WITH A CLEAR SKY IN NW OH, AND ON THE OVERCAST SIDE
EASTWARD INTO NW PA WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA HAS CLOUDS
INCREASING AND LOWERING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD, WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ONSET AFTER 12Z FOR FDY/TOL, WHERE TOL
COULD START WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. ALL OTHER TERMINALS START AS AND
CONTINUE AS RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS LOWER TO
MVFR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER ONSET, WITH IFR POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
TAF IN PROLONGED PRECIPITATION IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
FOR THE ERI TERMINAL, BKN-OVC DECK FL040 EXPECTED THROUGH
AROUND 06Z TONIGHT, A BRIEF BREAK WITH HIGH CLOUDS, AND THEN
LOWERING ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS W TO WNW GUSTING TO 25KTS AT TIMES, EASING THROUGH THE
LATER EVENING HOURS WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND THEN E TO NE TUESDAY UNDER
10KTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. POSSIBLE
RETURN OF NON-VFR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE
ISLANDS TO AVON POINT, OH UNTIL 21Z/4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND FROM
AVON POINT TO RIPLEY, NY UNTIL 03Z/10 PM TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
BRIEFLY BECOMING LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY
BEFORE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ144-
145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...26
MARINE...15
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