848
FXUS61 KCLE 010449
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT, DRAGGING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
EVENING CLIPPER AND LINEAR SNOW SQUALL:
MID AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER LOW DIVING THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING, LIGHT SNOW WILL BREAK OUT
IN THE 21-22Z TIMEFRAME FROM NW TO SE DUE TO BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT BENEATH THE EXIT REGION OF A 140+ KNOT H3 JET STREAK.
THIS WILL BRING AREAWIDE SNOW FOR THE EVENING, BUT THE PERIOD OF
INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL INTENSE LINEAR SNOW SQUALL
ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT MID TO LATE EVENING. A LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
BAND THAT DROPPED A NARROW STRIP OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF LAKE AND ASHTABULA COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOSTLY DRIFTED OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE THIS EVENING, IT
WILL CAPTURE THE LAKE-EFFECT BAND AND RAPIDLY PUSH IT INLAND
WHICH WILL BE OUR POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALL SET UP. RAP BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPENING INSTABILITY IN THE 00Z TO 03Z
TIMEFRAME AS 850-700 MB TEMPS COOL WITH RESULTANT LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7000 FEET. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG OMEGA (LIFT) THROUGH A SATURATED DGZ AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ALL SUPPORT THE SNOW SQUALL. TIMING
HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AMONG HREF CAMS, AND EXPECT THE SQUALL TO
PUSH ONSHORE FROM KTOL TO KERI IN THE 01-02Z TIMEFRAME, REACHING
A KFDY TO KCAK AND KYNG LINE BY 02-03Z AND CLEARING THE U.S. 30
CORRIDOR BY 04Z. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 35 KNOTS SUPPORTING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.
GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS COINCIDING WITH NEW YEARS EVE
FESTIVITIES, WE CONTINUE TO HEAVILY MESSAGE THE SNOW SQUALL.
LAKE-EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT AND SNOW SQUALL, WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LARGELY SHUT DOWN
THE SNOWFALL, SO EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE DRY FROM ABOUT 06Z
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND
MODERATE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS HOVER
AROUND 6-7 THOUSAND FEET WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, INLAND PRIMARY SNOWBELT OF
FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA, BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
ABOUT 1 INCH OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF ERIE COUNTY AND NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY
WHERE A WELL-MODELED LAKE HURON BAND COULD PUT DOWN AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DRIFTING EAST INTO NY AS THE FLOW BACKS.
SNOWFALL TOTALS:
AS STATED ABOVE, THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER AND LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW SQUALL ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 5 INCHES IN MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NE OHIO WHERE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. FAR EASTERN CUYAHOGA
COUNTY COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW, WITH
GENERALLY 4 TO 7 ADDITIONAL INCHES ACROSS LAKE, GEAUGA, AND
ASHTABULA COUNTIES WHERE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THE BIGGER TOTALS WILL BE IN NW PA WHERE AN ADDITIONAL
5-10 INCHES (LOCALLY UP TO 12) IS EXPECTED. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ERIE COUNTY AND NORTHERN
CRAWFORD COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF THESE HEADLINE AREAS, AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE REST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST OHIO.
ADDITIONAL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT:
AFTER THE BREAK FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY, ANOTHER WEAK MID/UPPER
SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AND WELL-ALIGNED WESTERLY FLOW WILL
GENERATE AN IMPRESSIVE BAND NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF NE OHIO AND
NW PA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND AND
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PUSH, BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE
AND LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ AND INCREASING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SHORT WINDOW OF HEAVY SNOW IN PARTS OF LAKE,
NORTHERN GEAUGA, ASHTABULA, ERIE, AND NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES
(IF IT MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH). HAVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 5 INCHES FOR NOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS IN ERIE COUNTY. THIS MAY NEED ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES.
TEMPERATURES:
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS, WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S IN THE DEEP ARCTIC
AIRMASS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUBZERO WIND CHILLS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD
SHIFT UP THE SHORELINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A MORE DEFINED AREA OF SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CONTINUED BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS AND CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
HUDSON BAY LOW WILL KEEP ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE, WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO PIVOT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS GOING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BUT A PRIMARILY SW TO WSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
DIRECT THE BULK OF THIS INTO WESTERN NY. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN NW
PA AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY FOR SNOW SHOWERS
TO OCCASIONALLY DRIFT INTO THAT AREA, BUT OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE
DRY AND COLD TO START 2026.
HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY OUTSIDE OF
SOME LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN NW PA. A WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, SO MAINTAINED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY IN
FAR NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING
WEAKER AND WARMER, SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION.
THEREAFTER, THE LINGERING GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS TROUGH
WILL LIFT OUT FOR MID AND LATE WEEK AS A QUASI-ZONAL PACIFIC-
BASED PATTERN TAKES OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY, SO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER, AND THIS WARMING MAY
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A SHORT BREAK IN
WINTER. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THE
LOW 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ALOFT, WNW'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AFFECT
OUR REGION THROUGH 06Z/FRI. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE BUILDS
SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO MOST OF OUR
REGION AS A TROUGH LINGERS OVER/NEAR LAKE ERIE. OUR REGIONAL
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AND WILL BACK GRADUALLY FROM NW'ERLY TO WSW'ERLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST
UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.
WIDESPREAD SNOW, STEADY TO HEAVY AT TIMES DUE, IN PART TO LAKE-
ENHANCEMENT, AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-REACHES OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT DEPARTING OUR REGION TO THE SOUTH, SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXIT OUR REGION GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH ~08Z/THURS.
VISIBILITY SHOULD VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND LIFR IN THE WIDESPREAD
SNOW. IN AND NEAR THE WIDESPREAD SNOW, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
TO BE IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE. ONCE THE FIRST ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW DEPARTS, SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
BASES NEAR 2KFT TO 3.5KFT AGL, PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER, AND MAINLY
VFR VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE BUILDING SURFACE
RIDGE. HOWEVER, MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW (LES) OF
VARYING INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM GENERALLY SE'WARD FROM
LAKE ERIE AND IMPACT NE OH/NW PA AND VICINITY THROUGH
~13Z/THURS. THEREAFTER, LES WILL STREAM GENERALLY ESE'WARD AND
THEN E'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE AND IMPACT FAR-NE OH, NW PA, AND
VICINITY THROUGH 06Z/FRI AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM
NW'ERLY TO W'ERLY. VISIBILITY SHOULD VARY BETWEEN MAINLY MVFR
AND LIFR IN THE LES. NOTE: ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
WITH MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITY MAY IMPACT NORTHERN OH AND
NW PA FROM ~22Z/THURS THROUGH ~06Z/FRI IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
OUTLOOK...LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WITH NON-VFR SHOULD IMPACT PORTIONS
OF NE OH AND NW PA ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN THIS SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION, PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH NON-VFR MAY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OH AND NW PA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT USHERS IN NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS. ELEVATED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY
SATURDAY AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY, 10
TO 15 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ010-011-
020>023-031>033.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
OHZ012>014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ143>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...KAHN
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