323
FXUS61 KCLE 160449
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE ONGOING AND GENERALLY OVER-PERFORMING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
WILL WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF
LAKE ERIE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND. THIS
WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NY, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW TO SINK INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA FOR A TIME MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
2) LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING PERIODIC SNOW SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
BRIEF SPELL OF SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS.
3) A PROLONGED COLD SPELL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW 0 IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST OVERALL
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP BELOW
0, AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
4) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MAY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
MONDAY. IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY OFF OF LAKE ERIE
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY INTO WESTERN
NY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS ACROSS NORTHWEST PA AND
FAR NORTHEAST OH APPEARS TO BE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MODERATE TO HEAVY (AND VERY FLUFFY)
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES FROM NORTHEASTERN ERIE COUNTY (OH)/
LORAIN COUNTY/MEDINA COUNTY POINTS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOWBELTS OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST
PA. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INTENSE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW RATES UP TO 1" PER HOUR AND VISIBILITY OCCASIONALLY
BELOW 1/4 OF A MILE OBSERVED IN THE MORE INTENSE/ORGANIZED
BANDS. INTENSITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BEFORE ACTIVITY
SHUTS OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
IN THE CLEVELAND AREA, FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
STARTING AROUND 4 PM. SYNOPTIC MOISTURE/LIFT QUICKLY DEPARTING
AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE WEST GIVES US CONFIDENCE IN THE LAKE
EFFECT LOSING SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT FOCUSING
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA AS WINDS BACK TO A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY EARLY FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 2 PM AND ON OF 1 TO LOCALLY 3" ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE BANDS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST OH, WITH 2 TO
LOCALLY 6" MORE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST PA. ACROSS THE BOARD,
THE HEAVIEST ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THOUGH DECENT ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE LAKE
BENEATH BANDS. WILL BE EXPIRING/DROPPING LES HEADLINES FROM WEST
TO EAST AS ABLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10S AND WILL OCCUR EARLY, WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AS
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SPREAD IN.
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
0 THIS AFTERNOON, WARMING SLIGHTLY (BUT LARGELY STAYING IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS) TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A BAND OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A FLAT
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS. THE LIFT WILL BE FAIRLY MODEST WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO AN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S RANGE, WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ANY SNOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD
BE FAIRLY LOW IMPACT WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY 1" OR LESS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT BRISK ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN INITIAL WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL NOT DIP MUCH, ONLY INTO A MID 20S TO NEAR 30 RANGE.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES WEST TO EAST VERY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT HEFTIER SNOW
SHOWER OR SQUALL POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WHILE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS
COULD BRING A BRIEF HAZARD TO TRAVEL. EARLY HIGHS ON SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S (WARMEST
EAST), WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A PUSH OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE MAIN STORY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL
BE THE COLD. SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN AN INITIAL
COLDER AIRMASS, WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER 10S WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING TO 0 TO -10F.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 20, WITH SIMILAR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER 10S WITH WIND
CHILLS LIKELY DIPPING BELOW 0.
A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING, USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SO
FAR. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 10S, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. GUSTIER WINDS TO
OVER 30 MPH ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ON EITHER SIDE OF 0, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
INTERIOR LOCALES DIPPING BELOW 0. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
DEFINITELY STAY WELL DOWN IN THE 10S, AND IT'S POSSIBLE SOME
AREAS STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST PA. ONE MORE VERY COLD NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT, INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND PERHAPS LOCALLY BELOW 0,
BEFORE A MODERATING TREND BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT AT -10 TO -20F
ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WINDOW APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME
PERIOD FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THIS DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH SNOW
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS OR SQUALLS ISN'T ALWAYS WELL-ADVERTISED WELL IN ADVANCE
WITH ARCTIC FRONTS AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE, THE
MAIN CONCERN IS A WINDOW OF IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF
LAKE ERIE. THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, THOUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DIRECT THAT INTO NY.
LOCALLY, THE MAIN CONCERN FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL LIKELY BE BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHEN WINDS BRIEFLY GO
MORE WESTERLY. GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIRMASS AND WHAT WILL LIKELY
STILL BE A PARTIALLY UNFROZEN LAKE, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS EXISTS WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SETS UP.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF WINDOW WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, PUSHING ACTIVITY BACK
TOWARDS NY AND OUT OF OUR AREA. THOSE IN FAR NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF IMPACTFUL LAKE EFFECT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TERMINALS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BECOME MOSTLY VFR WITH
CEILINGS AROUND 030-035 WITH A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS AS A
CLOUD DECK MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MVFR
BY 13-16Z AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
DROP AS A RESULT. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS, BUT GENERALLY WON'T BE
PROLONGED. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE AROUND 21-01Z THIS EVENING
AS THE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN MAINLY MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS ALL WILL BACK TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AROUND 12Z.
AROUND THAT TIMEFRAME, WINDS WILL START TO GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNTIL AFTER
00Z TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. NON-VFR
WITHIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED WINDOW OF HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT, EXPECT FOR
HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM VERMILION EAST TO RIPLEY
NY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING. ANTICIPATE FOR ADVISORIES
TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME AND AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
EXTENDED THE FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS ELEVATED
WINDS AND COLD AIR REMAIN ACROSS LAKE ERIE. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE
OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS MOVES
OVER THE LAKE ON SUNDAY. COLD AIR TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER WINDOW OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AND ADDITIONAL HEADLINES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...23
MARINE...13
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