410
FXUS61 KCLE 142335
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
635 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT STRONGER AND SLOWER-MOVING. THIS HAS
LED TO A SIGNIFICANT UPWARD TREND IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR
BOTH THE SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE CONTINUING
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER MUCH
MORE OF THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR THE OUTLOOK FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN WILL CONTINUE CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WHICH ALONG WITH QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
2) LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA, LEADING TO CONTINUED
IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS OF FLUFFY SNOW WITH THE GREATEST
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SNOWBELT.
3) TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NEAR TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, POSING A
MINOR COLD EXPOSURE RISK.
4) A COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SNOW, SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES, AND WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SYNOPTIC SNOW IS EVOLVING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM IN INTO NORTHWEST OH AND SOUTHEAST MI, AIDED
BY GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF A POTENT VORT MAX THAT IS
CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AND TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT
TO OUR WEST. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUOUSLY TRENDED SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST 24-36 HOURS WORTH OF
RUNS, LEADING TO THE CONTINUED SLOWER TREND WITH THE INITIAL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT ALSO
ALLOWING FOR A GREATER AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC SNOW AREA-WIDE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THE SWATH OF SNOW TAKING SHAPE TO OUR WEST IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRANSLATES
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM, THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
JUST WEST OF CLEVELAND TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF FINDLAY AND IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH. IT SHOULD CLEAR THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BETWEEN 6-8 PM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN (POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH A BIT OF WET SNOW) AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY PLUNGE BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE 10S QUICKLY BETWEEN ABOUT 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SNOW INTENSITY WILL PEAK FROM WEST-
EAST ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED AMID THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION THIS EVENING, STRONGEST NEAR LAKE ERIE AND WEST OF THE
I-71 CORRIDOR. SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE
SHOULD BEGIN TAKING SHAPE THIS EVENING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF GREATER CLEVELAND AND THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOWBELTS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 1AM/6Z THURSDAY, WHICH CAPTURES THE
BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW, ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1-3"
ACROSS NORTHWEST OH AND OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OH TO
2-4" ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 6" POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE CLEVELAND METRO. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW, RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES/GUSTY WINDS, AND A RELATIVELY QUICK ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING (PEAK SNOW RATES WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SNOW OF 0.5-0.75" PER HOUR, PERHAPS UP TO 1" PER HOUR IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SNOWBELT) WILL LEAD TO ROAD
CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WAS
SLIGHTLY GENEROUS WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND INCLUDED
ALL COUNTIES THAT HAVE A SOLID CHANCE TO SEE 3" OR MORE OF SNOW,
WITH A SPECIAL WX STATEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. WHILE
SNOW WILL BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND MUCH MORE INTERMITTENT
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF CONTINUING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE, RAN ALL ADVISORIES UNTIL AT LEAST 10 AM THURSDAY AS
POOR ROAD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE MAIN DRAGS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE WEST OF THE LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT INTO THURSDAY,
THOUGH WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO STAY <1".
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, AN IMPACTFUL PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC SNOW (WITH
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WILL DROP ABOUT 3-6" OF SNOW ON THE GREATER CLEVELAND AREA AND
ERIE, PA ALONG WITH THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOWBELTS THROUGH
1 AM/6Z THURSDAY...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL LEAD US INTO A
CONTINUING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY,
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST PA.
THE GENERAL SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IN
RECENT GUIDANCE, WITH MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
CLOSED LOW ALOFT TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE OR FAR
NORTHERN OHIO LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, HAS LED TO THE GENERAL
SETUP FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO CONTINUE TO LOOK MORE FAVORABLE
FOR CONTINUED IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME
MODEST SYNOPTIC LIFT AND DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE TO ABOVE 700MB
PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING FROM WEST TO
EAST, SO THIS IS REALLY MORE OF A LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SETUP THAN
A CLASSIC BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETUP. 850MB TEMPERATURES
PLUNGING TO -18 TO -20C ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO MODEST TO MODERATE LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY, WITH LAKE-INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMBING TO
7-8K FEET. WHILE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND EL HEIGHTS AREN'T
ANYTHING EARTH-SHATTERING, THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH-RATIO
AND EFFICIENT, WITH ADDED CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE LAKE AND
UPSLOPE ALLOWING IT TO ADD UP THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERALLY, AM
EXPECTING CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS A
GOOD CHUNK OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OHIO (AS FAR WEST/
SOUTHWEST AS SANDUSKY AND WOOSTER) AND NORTHWEST PA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL THEN GRADUALLY START TO SUBSIDE
FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH WILL
NOT ENTIRELY SHUTOFF ACROSS NORTHEAST OH UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING
AND A BIT LATER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY LEADING TO SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY WHIP AROUND TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING, GRADUALLY BACKING TO A MORE NORTHWEST
DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY MORE WEST-NORTHWEST BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TARGETS FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THIS TYPE
OF FLOW WILL BE: 1) THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE
IN BOTH THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOWBELT DUE TO WELL-ALIGNED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR UPSLOPE. 2) WHERE A
LAKE HURON CONNECTION SETS UP (PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS THE
EASTERN CLEVELAND SUBURBS THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY WORKING EAST INTO NORTHWEST PA BY THURSDAY)...AND 3)
POTENTIALLY THE WESTERN LAKESHORE TOWARDS SANDUSKY AND SOUTHEAST
INTO PARTS OF THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT (I.E. PORTIONS OF LORAIN/
MEDINA/SUMMIT). WHILE THE LAKESHORE WILL GENERALLY SEE LESS SNOW
THAN THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND, THE LAKE BEING COLDER NOW ALONG
WITH SOME SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO THE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE EVENT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS CLOSE TO THE
LAKESHORE. SNOW RATES LIKELY WON'T BE OUT OF CONTROL LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH WILL COMMONLY REACH 0.5" PER
HOUR WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AND COULD STILL
PEAK AT 1" PER HOUR ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...MOST LIKELY WHERE ANY
BANDS (ESPECIALLY THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION) INTERACT WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOW RATES DIMINISH MORE SUBSTANTIALLY WITHIN
LINGERING SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WILL VARY QUITE A BIT AND WILL
BE GREATEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LIGHTEST NEAR THE
LAKESHORE...RANGING FROM 1-3" AS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST AS ERIE AND
HURON COUNTIES TO 2-6" ACROSS GREAT CLEVELAND AND THE SNOWBELT
OF NORTHEAST OHIO, WITH 4-8" GENERALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PA. THIS
WILL PUSH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 4-12" ACROSS GREATER
CLEVELAND AND THE NORTHEAST OH SNOWBELT TO 6-15" ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN THIS SETUP HAS A FAIR AMOUNT GOING FOR IT
AND HAS BEEN TRENDING UP QUICKLY OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS. WENT
WITH WARNINGS FOR ALL OF NORTHWEST PA AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST OH,
INCLUDING CUYAHOGA COUNTY AND SURROUNDING SECONDARY SNOWBELT
COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ACROSS ERIE AND
HURON COUNTIES, AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR
SANDUSKY FOCUSING BETTER SNOW AND LEADING TO GREATER THAN 6"
ACROSS PARTS OF THOSE COUNTIES. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRUMBULL COUNTY, THOUGH THESE LAKE ENHANCED SETUPS OFTEN
DOWNSLOPE INTO MOST OF TRUMBULL AND DON'T PRODUCE QUITE AS MUCH
THERE AS COUNTIES JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL
USHER IN COLDER AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -20 C
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS. WITH ELEVATED NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
REGION OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH, THERE WILL BE A
NOTABLE IMPACT TO WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL TO 5
TO -5 F OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THIS
WILL POSE A MINOR COLD EXPOSURE RISK TO THOSE OUTDOORS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
AN AMPLIFIED AND PERSISTENT RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND INTO
ALASKA WILL SUPPORT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE END
OF THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MEAN
TROUGHING GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH
WILL BE DEEPEST MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
COLD PATTERN WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW CHANCES, BOTH FROM SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH AND LAKE EFFECT AT TIMES.
SNOW CHANCES:
A CLIPPER WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY, WITH MODEST SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
LINGERING FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES ON SATURDAY
WITH SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT IN THE
PRIMARY SNOWBELT THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVE LULL IN SNOW
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY, WITH LAKE EFFECT INTO THE
SNOWBELT BEHIND IT. THERE IS HOPE FOR ANOTHER RELATIVE BREAK IN
THE PATTERN ON TUESDAY, WITH HINTS OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES:
AFTER ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 10S THURSDAY NIGHT, FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WILL BRING A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE COLDER
AIR WITH HIGHS TRYING TO SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA. A PERIOD OF VERY
COLD WEATHER (COLDEST OF THE WINTER THUS FAR) THEN ARRIVES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MODEST IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY.
DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 10S ALONG WITH LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
COLDEST NIGHT MAY BE MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN A FEW SPOTS COULD MAKE A
RUN AT 0. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
AT SOME POINT AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON EXACT TEMPS/WINDS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE DETERIORATED THE PAST FEW
HOURS DOWN TO IFR-LIFR AS THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MUCH OF THE
REGION. MOST SITES HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW AS A RESULT
OUTSIDE OF KYNG AND KERI, BUT WILL DO SO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. PERSISTENT IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SITES FROM KCLE AND EASTWARD DUE
TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. FOR SITES TO THE WEST (KMFD,
KFDY, AND KTOL), CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT LEAST BY
EARLY MORNING WITH THE WESTERN MOST TRANSITIONING QUICKER. THE
CURRENT IFR- LIFR ARE DRIVEN BY LOW CEILINGS AT LESS THAN 1KFT
AND VISIBILITY DROPPING DOWN TO 1 MILE OR LESS IN THE SNOW
SHOWERS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH VISIBILITY WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE IN
THE SNOW SHOWERS CREATING IFR CONDITIONS. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20-25 KNOTS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR MOST SITES OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW BELT WHERE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. NON-VFR LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NON-VFR MAY LINGER ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE. NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30KTS AS A COLD
FRONT CHARGES ACROSS LAKE ERIE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND WAVE
HEIGHTS BACK INTO THE 4-8FT RANGE FOR THE CENTRAL BASIN, AND 3-6FT
FOR THE WESTERN AND EASTERN BASINS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING OUT
FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN HIGH WINDS, NEAR FREEZING LAKE
TEMPERATURES, HIGH WAVE HEIGHTS, AND AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS. WINDS GRADUALLY EASE THURSDAY, THEN BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY/OFFSHORE FRIDAY 15-25KTS. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, OPEN
WATER WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 3-6FT, AND NEARSHORE ZONES WILL BE 1-2FT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE 15-25KTS PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING THE 3-6FT WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE NEARSHORE
ZONES EAST OF CLEVELAND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ008-
018-028>031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ009-019.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
OHZ010>014-020>022-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ023-032-
033.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>144.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM
EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ144>148-164>168.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...23
MARINE...26
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