664
FXUS61 KCLE 100818
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
318 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND WILL DEEPEN EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST BRINGING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
WINTRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVES EASTWARD
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SURFACE LOW, CURRENTLY
SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTER SEABOARD, WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN CANADA
ON MONDAY. BEHIND THE LOW, THERE HAS BEEN STRONG, COLD AIR ADVECTION
FROM THE NORTH MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES. THIS WILL CREATE A COUPLE
PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE HEADLINES OUT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOR THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WITHIN THE
ADVISORY, THERE WILL BE LAKE HURON CONNECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TODAY PUSHING THE LAKE EFFECT BAND FURTHER
TO THE EAST. ADDITIONALLY, DURING THE DAY TODAY, THERE WILL BE A PUSH
OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION THAT MAY LIMIT IMPACTS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THIS WON'T LIMIT THE POPS, THOUGH THE QPF WILL BE LOWER
LIMITING OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE
MORE HUMID AIR MASS MOVING IN AS WINDS SHIFT TO BE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BRING A LAKE EFFECT BAND ACROSS THE TYPICAL
SNOWBELT AREAS INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS FAR
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO BE MORE
WESTERLY AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH THE
LAKE EFFECT BAND FURTHER OFF THE LAKESHORE WHERE IMPACTS WILL
PRIMARILY BE IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. WITH THIS RIDGE, THERE WILL
BE MORE LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN THAT WILL MAKE THE LAKE EFFECT
LESS EFFECTIVE AND LIMITING TOTALS AFTER TUESDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW, WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
MOVING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
MORNING LOWS ON MONDAY WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID 20S AND ONLY
REACHING UP INTO THE MID 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TUESDAY MORNING
LOWS WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH LOWS DOWN IN THE LOW 20S AND EVEN
UPPER TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION AS WELL AS WINDS WILL BE 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE WEAK RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE MEAN
FLOW WILL START TO SHIFT BACK TO BE MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE BRING THE LAKE EFFECT BAND BACK ONSHORE IN
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NORTHEASTERN OHIO AS WELL. THOUGH, AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH, A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW BAND
OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
PRIMARY SNOWBELT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE REST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. PRECIPITATION WILL START TO TAPER OFF INTO
THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. HIGHS DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE LONG TERM WITH QUIETER WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK IN THE
MID 50S FOR HIGHS AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SUNRISE. KTOL AND KFDY HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE BULK OF THE
SNOW END, AND THESE SITES WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY
TODAY OUTSIDE OF A FEW PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER AT KMFD, WHERE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE PRETTY STEADY
THROUGH 12Z OR SO WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR BEFORE STARTING TO
IMPROVE, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP CIGS AND VIS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THERE. KMFD SHOULD
FINALLY CLEAR OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, AND
KERI, SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW THIS MORNING TRANSITIONS TO PURE
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, BUT THERE WILL BE IMPROVEMENT IN
BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS, SO IT WON'T BE SOLIDLY LOW CIGS/VIS
WITHOUT BREAKS. TRIED TO SHOW OVERALL IMPROVEMENT AT ALL OF
THESE TERMINALS STARTING AROUND LATE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS IN A NW FLOW PATTERN BECAUSE IT TENDS TO
LEAD TO A "SPRAY" OF MAINLY LIGHT, NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER. ANOTHER FLARE UP OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BACKS TO WNW AND EVENTUALLY
W, BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT KERI WHILE THE OTHER SITES
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO NW THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO WNW BY THIS EVENING AND W TONIGHT,
WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SPEEDS, BUT STILL GUSTING TO AROUND
20 KNOTS NEAR THE LAKESHORE AFFECTING KERI.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WITH LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MARINE
THE LATE OCTOBER AND EARLY NOVEMBER TREND OF HIGH WINDS ON LAKE
ERIE CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM STRONG
HIGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 20-30KTS AND WAVE
HEIGHTS 69FT ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS AND 3-FT IN THE
WESTERN BASIN. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
TURNS THE WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THEM TO 30-35KTS FOR
LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, NEARING GALE CRITERIA. WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASE AND PEAK AT 8-12FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF
THE ISLANDS, AND 3-6FT IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES. WINDS ON THE
GRADUAL DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS COMING DOWN AS WELL, AND WILL COME DOWN BELOW 2FT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10KTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY,
WHEN DECISIONS FOR A POSSIBLE GALE WATCH/WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ010-019-020-029>031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ021>023.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ001.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ142-
143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...26
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