194
FXUS61 KCLE 181303
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
903 AM EDT MON OCT 18 2021
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BE MOVE LOCALIZED TO NW PA, REFLECTING
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS LATER
TODAY. SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
PA THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND DRY LOW AND MID-LEVEL AIR ARRIVE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, RESULTING IN BELOW-AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ACROSS NW OH,
PLENTIFUL SUN SHOULD RAISE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 70.
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ONE MORE WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARRIVES MIDWEEK. UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW TANDEM WILL MOVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
STRONGER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT, BUT THIS WILL SIGNIFY A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
AIRMASSES HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO WILL SPRAWL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
EXPECTING MORE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PROBABLY IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD FIRMLY PLANT
THE REGION IN BELOW ZERO 850MB AIR FOR PROBABLY THE FIRST TIME THIS
FALL. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PRAIRIES
OF CANADA/NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES FROM THE
SHORT TERM INTO THE LONG TERM PERIODS, LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE
LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET THUS FAR. BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
GIVES US OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD 30S AWAY FROM THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT,
AND OUR FIRST POTENTIAL AT SOME FROST IF WINDS GO CALM AND SKIES
CLEAR AT NIGHT. TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPECIFICS
OVERALL, BUT IT SHOULD DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE FALL NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH VFR TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LINGERING, LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY ONLY AFFECT ERI TODAY, BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT THIS MORNING, 5 KNOTS OR LESS. THE
EXCEPTION IS AT ERI WHERE NORTHWEST GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS CONTINUE.
LATER TODAY, NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN TAF SITES WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
CAK/YNG/CLE/ERI THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY IN LOWER CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
MARINE
WINDS GRADUALLY EASING ACROSS LAKE ERIE, WEST TO EAST, AND THE WAVE
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW SUIT THROUGH THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. KEEPING
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING LORAIN EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS TURN WSW TONIGHT, WITH AN INCREASE IN
VELOCITY REEMERGING TUESDAY, BUT SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. DETERIORATING LAKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED
BEHIND WHAT WILL BE 2 OR POSSIBLY THREE COLD FRONTS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHILLIER AIRMASS ARRIVING AND
NORTHERLY DOMINATED WINDS.
WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE BASIN THROUGH
LATE MORNING, BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE THE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EVENTUALLY EXITING, THUS DIMINISHING THE
THREAT LATER TODAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL/KAHN
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page