453
FXUS61 KCLE 270748
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH THIS UPDATE, BEGINNING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY
WINDS AS DECAYING STORMS ENTER THE AREA THIS EVENING. OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LIMITED, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
AND GUSTY SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DECAYING STORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
2) A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS MIDWEEK INTO EARLY MAY. THERE
WILL BE MULTIPLE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST WILL
ARISE AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST TODAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, PUSHING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST AS WELL.
THIS ROBUST LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF STORMS REACHING THE AREA, THERE WILL
BE LIMITED CONCERN FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY. THESE STORMS SHOULD
BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE CWA AS THE BULK OF
FORCING AND THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A STRONG LLJ OF 50-60 KNOTS
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ELEVATED GIVEN THE
ONGOING CONVECTION, WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX SOME OF THE LLJ DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THESE
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOST WELL DEVELOPED STORMS. IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK BY SPC,
THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN GENERAL THUNDER, FURTHER MESSAGING THE
ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT AS THE DECAYING STORMS PUSH
EAST, BUT STILL WORTH NOTING THE WIND THREAT.
IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS. THE OVERALL
FLOODING CONCERN HOWEVER IS MINIMAL GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION TODAY AND
DESTABILIZATION OVER THE CWA FOR ANY SHIFT IN THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER THIS ROBUST SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
ACT TO USHER IN A CANADIAN HIGH WITH MUCH COOLER CHARACTERISTICS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A ROLLER COAST OF TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS TODAY
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, BUT ONLY REACHING INTO THE 50S
BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
THESE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO COOL, WITH
SOME AREAS REACHING INTO THE LOW THE MID 30S AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON
NIGHTS WHEN SKIES ARE CLEAR AND RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE ENHANCED.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCAL FROST AND POSSIBLE
FREEZE CONCERNS, IMPACTING VEGETATION THAT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO GROW
GIVEN THE EARLY SPRING WARM UP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR EXTENT
AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS POTENTIAL AND THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES.
THESE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STICK AROUND WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA HIGHLIGHT IN THE CPC DAY 6-10 OUTLOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (THIS OUTLOOK COVERS MAY2 TO 6).
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR DOMINANT. WINDS ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-30KTS AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS
GRADUALLY LOWER AND SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, ONLY REACHING
THE WESTERN TERMINALS AT FDY AND TOL BY THE VERY END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FOR THE LAST HOUR OF THE TAF AT
FDY/TOL.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY AGAIN IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-20KTS TODAY BECOME SOUTHERLY 20-30KTS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING AWAY
FROM SHORE AT 1-3FT AND 3-5FT IN THE OPEN WATER ZONES.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS BECOME ONSHORE EVENTUALLY LATE
TUESDAY AROUND 10-15KTS WITH NEARSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS 1-3FT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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