807
FXUS61 KCLE 150200
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1000 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER NORTHWEST OHIO
WITH THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION LINGERING FROM HANCOCK TO
MARION COUNTIES. A LIMITED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR THESE
COUNTIES AS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN, BUT DRY
SOIL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF ABSORPTION OF THIS RAIN
AND ANY FLOODING WILL BE MINOR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES AND PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATES.
LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S,
ALTHOUGH NW OHIO MAY CONTINUE TO DIP LOWER IN THE 60S WITH THE
RAIN-COOLED ATMOSPHERE.
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY HAS CHANGED A BIT FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A WEAK LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN
INDIANA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE AREA ON SATURDAY
MORNING AND MOVE THE OHIO VALLEY LOW NORTHEAST, BRINGING A
MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES
WITH THIS COMPLEX WILL BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LIKE CANTON
AND YOUNGSTOWN, BUT RECENT TRENDS ARE THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MISS THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. TO THE WEST,
A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY SPILL INTO
NW OHIO AND HAVE SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
AS FOR THE REGION IN BETWEEN, TOUGH TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AS THE OVERALL FORCING AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS MINIMAL. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW
AS A SPURIOUS SHOWER MAY ATTEMPT TO ENTER BUT TRENDS SEEM DRIER
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SEEM
APPROPRIATE FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW WILL
DEPART AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL FIZZLE OUT IN THE WEST AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ON SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS OUR CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
AMIDST WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. UNFAVORABLY-HIGH WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT THE
OCCURRENCE OF SEVERE HAIL, WHILE FAIRLY ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER,
LIMITED DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, AND LIMITED DCAPE
SHOULD CURB THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 70'S TO LOWER 80'S.
CYCLONIC WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS AN EASTWARD-MOVING LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
EASTERN CANADA, THE GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST U.S. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FIRST FRONT SHOULD EXIT OUR CWA
TO THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT, THE AIR MASS MAY
BECOME COLD ENOUGH OVER LAKE ERIE FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 50'S TO MID 60'S. ON MONDAY, A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR CWA AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 70'S TO LOWER 80'S ONCE AGAIN. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50'S TO MID 60'S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT THIS POINT, ODDS FAVOR FAIR WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES VERY SLOWLY
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND FAR-EASTERN CANADA. SIMULTANEOUSLY, HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BUILD OVER OUR AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE FROM THE 70'S ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER
70'S TO MID 80'S ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50'S OR 60'S ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SINCE HIGH PRESSURE MAY
BEGIN EXITING OUR CWA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE LOW TO MID
80'S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE EARLY CONCERNS FOR THE TAFS ARE IN NW OHIO AS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. SOME NON-VFR IS
STILL PLAUSIBLE AT KFDY WITH THE BETTER THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THAT
TERMINAL. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND HAVE DRIED OUT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME NON-VFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KTOL AND KFDY FROM
THE LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THIS EVENING'S CONVECTION. TOUGH TO
SAY HOW MUCH CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO AND HAVE MVFR
MENTIONED, BUT IFR IS ALSO PLAUSIBLE IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN CLEAR
OUT QUICKLY ENOUGH. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE TERMINALS ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE
AROUND KCAK AND KYNG AND HAVE KEPT BRIEF WINDOWS OF VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR THESE TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE, RAIN IS MUCH MORE
CONDITIONAL AND HAVE OMITTED FROM THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY TONIGHT BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A LOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
NORTHEASTLY WINDS OF ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO 25
KNOTS, PERSIST OVER LAKE ERIE INTO THIS EVENING. WAVES AS LARGE
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND
RIPLEY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FROM RENO BEACH TO RIPLEY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, 2 TO
4 FOOT WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET AS EASTERLY WINDS
EASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
EASTERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ON SATURDAY VEER TO SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE ON SUNDAY, CAUSING 5 TO 15 KNOT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY. WINDS TREND WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY WITH THE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST PASSAGE OF A
SECOND COLD FRONT. SIMULTANEOUSLY, WIND SPEEDS REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15
KNOT RANGE. NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. WAVES
SHOULD BE NO LARGER THAN 1 TO 3 FEET.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ007-
009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ143>149.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...JASZKA
LONG TERM...JASZKA
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...JASZKA
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