808
FXUS61 KCLE 241047
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
647 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AND WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION MOVING INTO NW IN THAT COULD
POSSIBLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
MIDDAY. HOWEVER, EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND WILL RIDE WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY QUIET END OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DRIFTS EAST TODAY. RIDGING WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT WITH A
DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, DESPITE SOME OF THE HIGHER
RES MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE DISSIPATED BY THAT POINT, WITH
ANY REMAINING ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A POP UP SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A REMNANT MCV
TRACKS ALONG THE RIDGE ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NW PA/WESTERN NY,
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR A FORECAST MENTION GIVEN RELATIVELY
STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY
WITH SOME FLOW OFF THE LAKE. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE LAKE, POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S NEAR THE LAKE. FORECAST
TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE WARMEST MOS AND CONSENSUS RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE.
THE OHIO VALLEY WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST ALONG A ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET CORRIDOR NOSING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING MOST OF THE UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY TO OVERTOP THE RIDGE AND TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WILL CARRY SOME
LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/LAKE ERIE
DURING THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL START OUT DRY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, BUT POPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. SOME WEAK
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EAST WITH MODEST DESTABILIZATION MAY LEAD
TO SOME EARLY DAY CONVECTION, BUT THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S SOUTHWEST TO THE MID 50S NORTHEAST. WENT ON THE WARMER
END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH MID UPPER 80S ACROSS
OHIO AND LOW 80S ACROSS NW PA, GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION AND GOOD
WAA THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE DECENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SEVERE
THREAT WOULD MAINLY BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD TAKE ALL OF THIS CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CWA
BY MIDNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO EARLY MONDAY BUT WILL RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME WE
WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES CLOSER TO THE
LAKE. IF THE FRONT ENDS UP NORTH OF THE LAKE THESE CHANCES WILL BE
REMOVED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE
SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. EACH MODEL HAS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE APPROACH
OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH ANY OF THE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. IF CLOUD COVER BECOMES THICK ENOUGH
ACROSS NW OH ON WEDNEDAY HIGHS MAY BE HELD IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MORNING CONVECTION
WILL TRACK ACROSS IN TOWARDS NW OH MIDDAY. EXPECTING THE
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BEFORE IT REACHES KTOL/KFDY, BUT A VERY
SMALL CHANCE THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHRA/TSRA AT THESE SITES
MIDDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH SOME INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE IN
THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD MAINLY STAY NORTH OF THE REGION, SO NO
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY VARIABLE AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, BECOMING
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE LAKE TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE STORM SYSTEM THAT INTERACT WITH THE LAKE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE LAKE BY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE LAKE.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY FOR WAVES BUILDING
CLOSE TO THE 4 FOOT THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER SOUTHERN OHIO
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGING ACROSS THE LAKE. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREENAWALT
NEAR TERM...GREENAWALT
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...GREENAWALT
MARINE...MM
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