371
FXUS61 KCLE 091043
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
643 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO, LAKE
ERIE, AND THE EASTERN LAKESHORE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE
AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SAG ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT, SHORTWAVES, AND THE RETURN OF A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WE WILL LARGELY START DRY TODAY, BUT MAY HAVE A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS FROM EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWESTERN PA EARLY IN PROXIMITY
TO THE OHIO VALLEY SHORTWAVE. WILL THEN TURN ATTENTION TO
EXTREME NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHEN A
LAKE BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND POTENTIALLY SPARKS ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. OTHERWISE, GREATER RAIN
POTENTIAL WAITS UNTIL CLOSER TO THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE STILL
FAVORED TO DEVELOP IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN MI, NORTHERN IN, AND FAR NORTHWEST OH BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING AND AS A SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL TRY SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THOUGH THERE IS NOT GREAT AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR THIS
ACTIVITY CAN PROGRESS AS IT OUTRUNS THE FRONT AND GREATEST
INSTABILITY. SUSPECT THAT IF ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CLUSTER THAT IT SHOULD SPREAD AT LEAST AS FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST AS
THE I-71 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING IF NOT A BIT FARTHER,
THOUGH MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THAT.
AFTER PERHAPS A LULL FOLLOWING THE EVENING CONVECTION, ANOTHER
UPTICK IS FAVORED OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY APPROACHING. THIS
UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN OH INTO PA. WE'LL LIKELY SEE ACTIVITY
EXIT EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WITH THE FRONT
STILL SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA AND A HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AM
EXPECTING AT LEAST SCATTERED RE-DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING SOUTH OR WEAKENING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST OH, LAKE
ERIE, AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN LAKESHORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG (WITH A TALL/SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE) AND 20-25KT OF BULK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH STRONG HEATING AND WELL-MIXED LOW-
LEVELS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND
ORGANIZATION WITH ANY CLUSTERS OF STORMS...THIS CAN SUPPORT THE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY ON
FRIDAY DUE TO WEAKER HEATING AND MINIMAL SHEAR. OTHERWISE, THE
OTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS
PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMB TO 1.75-2.00" TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH SKINNY INSTABILITY
PROFILES AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, CAN SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN RATES WITHIN CONVECTION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN MAY BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THERE
IS SOME SIGNAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF
THE SAGGING FRONT. WITH PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ON HI-RES MODELS, IT'S HARD TO BE TOO
CONFIDENT IF OR WHERE ANY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WOULD PLAY OUT. STILL, SOME POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT
AND THE WPC HAS THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY BEFORE SCALING BACK
A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL CLOSE TO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, AND THE OVERALL
SETUP HAS TRENDED A BIT FARTHER NORTH IN RECENT MODEL RUNS.
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
20-40% FORECAST MENTION ACROSS OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. ALSO HAVE
A SMALL SHOWER MENTION ALONG PARTS OF THE WESTERN LAKESHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW LAKE-ENHANCED SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS IN THE ENE
FLOW. THE FORECAST TRENDS DRIER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
THOUGH IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT SOME MODELS HINT AT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OWING TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SLOWER
THAN EXPECTED AND LOW PRESSURE STILL DRIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...ONE SMALL THING TO MONITOR. HIGH PRESSURE DOES FINALLY
BUILD IN MORE FIRMLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, PROVIDING FOR A PROLONGED STRETCH OF
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY INTO THE 90S
FOR HIGHS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. THERE REMAINS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD REGARDING HOW QUICKLY RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EXPANDS EAST NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL HAVE
INFLUENCE ON OUR TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA,
AND CONDITIONS TOO DRY FOR FOG THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH LOW COVERAGE OF
STORMS AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WILL LIMIT THE INCLUSION OF
TSRA OR NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST TAFS. BEST CONFIDENCE IS AT
KTOL WHERE MOST MODELS HAVE CONVECTION MOVING IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHEN PEAK HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING LIGHTNING (THOUGH STILL RELATIVELY LOW SO ONLY
INCLUDED A PROB30).
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS
BECOME WEST DURING THE DAY WITH WAVES GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE
WESTERN BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS.
WINDS WILL TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY, THEN
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
LAKE. WAVE SHOULD REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH 1
TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN BASIN THIS WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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