963
FXUS61 KCLE 301131
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
631 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TLDR:
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ON THIS SHIFT WAS TO MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES, BOTH IN
SEVERITY AND IN TIME. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SUMMIT,
PORTAGE, AND TRUMBULL COUNTIES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND WILL EXPIRE
AT 1 PM TODAY AS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EASE. ELSEWHERE, EXPANDED
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TO INCLUDE ASHTABULA, LAKE, AND
NORTHERN ERIE (PA) COUNTIES WHERE CONFIDENCE IN WARNING AMOUNTS
OF SNOW ARE THE HIGHEST. MAINTAINED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR CUYAHOGA COUNTY GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN 6+ INCHES OF
SNOWFALL WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE ADVISORY
FOR CUYAHOGA COUNTY AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR THE
OHIO COUNTIES (GEAUGA, LAKE, ASHTABULA) ARE NOW IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THURSDAY.
PERSISTENT AREAWIDE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT AS WINDS BACK
WESTERLY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW RATIOS
REMAIN IN THE 18:1 TO 20:1 RANGE AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 MPH. ANTICIPATE FOR WINDS TO EASE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THEY TURN WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
THERE WILL BE A VERY BRIEF WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE THE ONGOING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH AHEAD OF ANOTHER IMPACTFUL
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
LASTS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE INITIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN HUGGED AGAINST THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE
TONIGHT UNDER WESTERLY MEAN LAYER FLOW. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT BRINGING 1-2" OF SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER, HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-6" WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE WHERE THE INITIAL LAKE EFFECT BAND SETS UP.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY
RAMP UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND CONTINUED
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TO IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE CROSSING TROUGH AXIS WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS WEDNESDAY EVENING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
THE TIMING IS LESS THAN IDEAL GIVEN THE HOLIDAY EVENING AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NYE NIGHT. PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES TO
THE UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER
TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVELS DRY OUT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHICH MAY REINVIGORATE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE APPROACHING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE CROSSING COLD FRONT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TENS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES NEAR ZERO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SETTLE IN
THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGIT WIND
CHILLS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY WARMER BY FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS LOW COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WINDOW OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS
THE SNOWBELT TO BEGIN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF 2026. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SITES. A FEW SITES MAY HAVE
BREAKS IN THE SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A BRIEF LULL OCCURS AND
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR. CEILINGS CURRENTLY ARE MVFR
ACROSS THE REGION AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR CATEGORY CHANGES WILL THE VISIBILITY
WITHIN THE SNOW BANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY DROP DOWN TO IFR ACROSS ALL SITES, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
DROPPING TO LIFR AT TIMES DURING HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY SITES TO RECOVER OUT OF MVFR VISIBILITES DURING
THIS TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SETTLE AROUND THE
REGION WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. THE EXCEPTION BEING SITES ALONG THE LAKE SHORE TO
INCLUDING KERI WHICH WILL STAY GUSTING UP TOWARDS 30 KNOTS
THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY, THOUGH CONDITIONS
WILL BE IMPROVING WITH WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST. THE WARNINGS WILL SHOULD BE ALLOW TO EXPIRE IN THE OPEN WATERS
AND DOWNGRADED IN THE NEARSHORE AT THEIR RESPECTIVE TIMES BUT CAN BE
ADJUSTED AS NEEDED SHOULD CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICK ENOUGH. THAT
BEING SAID, AFTER THIS EVENING WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
POINTS OF ELEVATED WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS AS A COLD
FRONT AND TROUGH TRAVERSE THE LAKE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH SHOULD STAY BELOW GALES. WAVES WILL STAY
ELEVATED AS WELL BEING BETWEEN 8-15 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASINS AND 4-7 FEET WEST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WAVES
WON'T BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EAST OF THE ISLANDS UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEN
THE WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE LAKE. QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO START THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ011.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
OHZ012>014-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ021>023.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>144-
162>164.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ145>147-
165>167.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ148-149-168-
169.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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