862
FXUS61 KCLE 040005
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
805 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SATURDAY'S SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA. THERE'S STILL CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND/OR ADDITIONAL
RISES ON RIVERS THANKS TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION VALUES AND THE RESULTING LOCATION OF THE
GREATEST FLOODING RISK REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS POINT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/LARGE
HAIL. ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES.
2) CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS HIGHER AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
3) MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1:
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH
OF THE LAKESHORE, HOWEVER A RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD EFFICIENT
THUNDERSTORM GROWTH THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES THIS EVENING
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH WITH THE BOUNDARY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
IF ANY STORMS MANAGE TO GROW TALL ENOUGH, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH
ABOUT 10 PM TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, ASSUMING THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
DOESN'T THROW A WRENCH INTO THINGS, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED. MEAN FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS STORM MOTION WILL
BE PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE TRAINING AND THE FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL. WITH THAT BEING SAID, ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WITH 1 AND 3 HOUR FFG
UNDER 2 INCHES IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AND HIGH
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA. AT THIS POINT, IT'S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE AREAS
OF GREATEST CONCERN GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF
AXIS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE #2:
THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S BY THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CROSSES THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED WITH THIS
ROUND GIVEN THE BETTER UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND HIGHER EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
LIKELY CLEARING EARLY IN THE DAY WILL ALSO RESULT IN MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. STORM MODE WILL LIKELY
BE LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HOWEVER, 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 15 KNOTS, THE
HIGHER MLCAPE VALUES, AND LCL HEIGHTS UNDER 1000 FEET WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW-END CHANCE OF A FEW SPINUPS/TORNADOES.
THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA, MEANING CONFIDENCE IN
ORGANIZED/STRONGER STORMS HAS INCREASED A BIT. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION AND THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN IN JUST A COUPLE OF DAYS MAY MAKE IT A BIT EASIER FOR
FLOODING TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, TWO-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF ABOUT .75 TO 1.25 INCHES
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES
OCCUR. ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS ARE LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE #3:
A PATTERN SHIFT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND
SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE COLDEST HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER
40S EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AND A PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN SHOWER CHANCE RETURN ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF MVFR
AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS TO KMFD, KCAK, AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH
AS KYNG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL OTHER SITES WILL BE MAINLY
DRY AND VFR. THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START
TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT KTOL, KFDY, KCLE, AND
KERI, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT EACH TERMINAL IS LOW. IN
GENERAL, THINK THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
KFDY, KTOL, AND KCLE IN THE 06-10Z TIMEFRAME, WITH IT LIKELY
TAKING UNTIL 10Z OR LATER TO REACH KERI. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF KMFD, KCAK,
AND KYNG IN THE ROUGHLY 04-09Z TIMEFRAME. THIS TIMING IS GIVE
OR TAKE AN HOUR AND WILL DEPEND ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE A LULL AREAWIDE BEFORE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS IN FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING KTOL AND KFDY BETWEEN 17 AND 20Z AND KYNG
AND KERI BY 23Z. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AT EACH TERMINAL, ESPECIALLY THE NE OHIO TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BECOME GENERALLY E AT 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT, TURNING S
AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN SW AND FURTHER INCREASE TO
15-25 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES, BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY.
NON- VFR MAY RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS.
MARINE
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT, THOUGH THE MAIN
MARINE CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT USHERS IN
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 22 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS. IN
ADDITION, STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WINDS
SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST, 20 TO 22 KNOTS. QUIETER MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...10
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