680
FXUS61 KCLE 221804
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
204 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH AND STALL ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY,
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT MAY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S TODAY WILL INCREASE
FURTHER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN CHECK WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT HEADLINES ON THURSDAY, AND THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. IN RESPONSE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO
THE LOW TO PERHAPS MID-90S IN SOME SPOTS ON THURSDAY, WITH DEW
POINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID-70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO.
OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO STALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY, WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAIN AS THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEARING 2.0 INCHES.
WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID-70S. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER ON HEAT INDICES REACHING 100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS AS THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH PWATS AROUND 2.0 INCHES. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY PUSH THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY, LEADING TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON
MONDAY. WILL NEED TO BEGIN MONITORING THE PLACEMENT OF UPPER-
LEVEL FEATURES ON TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BECOME WEDGED BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL, WITH JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL TURN S BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH S WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE WILL AFFECT KERI BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, SO HAVE WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO N TO NE.
OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. NON-VFR MAY RETURN
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
NE WINDS OF 5-15 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY TURN S AT 5-10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT, WITH S TO SW WINDS OF 5-15 KNOTS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING ACROSS THE LAKE
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MAY TURN WINDS W TO NW, BUT SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE LAKE.
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT
AS STATED ABOVE, CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE QUIET.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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