727
FXUS61 KCLE 091132
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
632 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERALL THIS MORNING.
STILL ON TRACK TO BE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN OVER A COUPLE OF WEEKS FOR MOST IN OUR CWA.
KEY MESSAGES
1)LAKE EFFECT/COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2)NOT AS COLD/CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT,
FINALLY ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION, ENHANCED
BY LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
EXPECTING A WARM FRONT TUESDAY MORNING, THE WARM UP TO ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES, AND THEN A COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.
DESPITE ICE-COVERED LAKE ERIE, LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE, AIDED BY SATURATED
LOW LEVELS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AS WELL. POPS ARE ON
THE EXPANSIVE SIDE IN THE SNOW BELT, BUT LOW, AND QPF/SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LOW AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, PRIOR TO LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. POPS ON THE INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
REGION.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CEILINGS ABOVE 5,000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST
AT UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH AND NW
PA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
LAKE ERIE REMAINS NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE-COVERED. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10-15KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15-
20KT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS GRADUALLY SLACKEN ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ICE WILL BE PRONE
TO SOME MOVEMENT EAST OF THE LAKE ERIE ISLANDS THIS WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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