766
FXUS61 KCLE 202340
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
640 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DUE TO
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW OH, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH NEAR THE LAKESHORE OF NE OH/NW
PA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT, PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PA WHERE THERE WILL BE A TOUCH
MORE MOISTURE. ELSEWHERE, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY AND SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PA AND EXTREME NE OH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS, HOWEVER
THERE'S SOME POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF INLAND ERIE COUNTY, PA. ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
SHOULD TAPER OFF RELATIVELY QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE CHILLY MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES SUNDAY.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. A FEW SPOTS MAY ATTEMPT TO DIP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR NE OH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOSTER DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE ONSET, PTYPE MAY START
OFF AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY WET SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL AND QUICKLY MELT AS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR. POPS SHOULD QUICKLY
TAPER OFF AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND A RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH LOWER 40S LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY STRAY FROM A
TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MILD TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE ANTICIPATED
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM ROUGHLY FINDLAY TO MOUNT VERNON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT
CHILLIER IN THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY, BUT EXPECT 50S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY TOUCHING
60 DEGREES IN SOUTHWESTERN COMMUNITIES ON CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING INTO THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BRINGING LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER.
BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. CAN'T RULE OUT
OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AT KERI ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE EASED TO 10-15 KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT
WIND GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT KERI EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT, TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NON-VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT, WINDS INCREASE TO 25-30
KNOTS, WITH BRIEF GALES POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN. WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AND TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SHORT DURATION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT LOW WATER CONCERNS IN THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE
ERIE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND THEN WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ144-145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ149.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...13
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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