932
FXUS61 KCLE 120154
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
854 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO PORTAGE AND
TRUMBULL COUNTIES THROUGH 7 PM WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS BEEN
HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARD WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS IN
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO SNOWBELT THROUGH 7 PM AND IN PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE.
3) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BY 330 PM WE HAVE SEEN THE INTENSITY OF SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT
STARTING TO DECREASE. DRYER AIR IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS PUSHING INLAND. THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND
DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE PUSHED EAST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA WHICH IS ALLOWING THE INTENSITY OF SNOW TO TREND DOWN.
ADVISORIES IN OHIO REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM WHEN THE MOISTURE AT
850MB STARTS TO STRIP AWAY AND THE ADVISORIES MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY IF SNOW TAPERS OFF. WE MAINTAIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
SO SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW IS FOCUSED TOWARDS INLAND ERIE COUNTY, SO THE ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA PORTION.
CLEARING IS NOTED ACROSS EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LAKE
HURON WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS STRONGER BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A RAPID DECREASE IN LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE
HURON WHILE A STRATUS REMAINS SOCKED IN BACK TO ILLINOIS. GENERALLY
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE LOCAL AREA WILL UNDERGO A QUICK WARM-UP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
RIDGING ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE LEADING PIECE OF ENERGY QUICKLY
ADVANCING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT/TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THAT WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN THAT MAY BE ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAKE A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY EVENING AS
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDS. TIMING WILL BE CRUCIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AS THIS TRANSITION SEEMS TO BE TRENDING MORE TOWARDS
BEFORE OR DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, LEADING TO TRAVEL CONCERNS. IN ADDITION,
THE 12Z/11 GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CLOSING OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IN AN AREA OF STRONG MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF THIS BAND WILL BE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA OR SOME LOCATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DID RAISE
QPF SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
HOW THIS PATTERN EVOLVES THAT COULD YIELD AN EFFICIENT SNOWFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE
GULF ON THURSDAY REPLACED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS LENDS CONFIDENCE TO A
COLD STRETCH WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW. WINDS CHILLS LOOK TO BE IN SINGLE DIGITS
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE
TIMING PERIODS OF SNOW DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN STORM TRACK AND WIND DIRECTION, BUT MOST MODELS SUGGEST SOME
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ICE ON LAKE ERIE IS
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN BASIN NORTH OF THE LAKE ERIE
ISLANDS SO THIS COLD STRETCH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTIONS AND A VERY COLD
AIRMASS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MIXED-BAG OF VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING,
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY
MVFR OVERNIGHT, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 12
KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR A SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION BY MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 12 TO
15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 22 TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS RAIN
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY. NON- VFR MAY RETURN IN SNOW
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
STRONG WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN BASIN FROM AVON POINT
TO RIPLEY WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z. A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS BACK TO WSW
AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS AGAIN BY 12Z MONDAY. HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM MAUMEE BAY TO THE ISLANDS
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AND FROM THE ISLANDS TO AVON POINT THROUGH 20Z
MONDAY TO COVER THIS NEXT ROUND OF WINDS ONLY SEPARATED BY A SHORT
BREAK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FROM AVON
POINT TO RIPLEY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING, BUT WILL WAIT FOR
THE ONGOING GALE WARNING TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING BEFORE REPLACING IT
WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES.
ANOTHER SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER RAPID
INCREASE IN WINDS FOR TUESDAY AS SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
LOW COULD PHASE WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LATE IN THE WEEK,
SUPPORTING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND W TO NW
WINDS OF AT LEAST 10-15 KNOTS, OCCASIONALLY UP TO 20-25 KNOTS,
BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DEEP ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THIS COULD ALSO
LEAD TO PATCHY FREEZING SPRAY AND RENEWED ICE GROWTH BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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