324
FXUS61 KCLE 131816
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
216 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED REGARDING THE UPCOMING
SYSTEMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW, BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BUT
THERE REMAINS A HIGH LEVEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
AREA.
2) A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
3) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH TODAY SHOULD STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVEL ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THURSDAY, RESULTING IN MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE TWO NOTABLE PERIODS OF
POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BUT THERE
REMAINS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF EITHER SYSTEM.
THE FIRST PUSH OF STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS DECAYING CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MOVES
INTO THE AREA. GIVEN THE TIMING, LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT, HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ OF 35-45 KNOTS WILL ASSIST IN
MAINTAINING SOME STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING WOULD BE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
WIND, ALTHOUGH HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. RIGHT NOW, SPC
HIGHLIGHTS THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH A D1 MARGINAL RISK.
THE TRICKY PART OF THIS FORECAST IS FIGURING OUT HOW QUICKLY THIS
MORNING CONVECTION PUSHES EAST AND ALLOWS THE ATMOSPHERE TO REBOUND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HRRR,
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE TWO LINES OF CONVECTION IN THE MORNING
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN STORMS LINGERING MUCH LONGER. ON THE FLIP
SIDE, MODELS SUCH AS THE ARW HAVING CONVECTION MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING. IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY STILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN LIMITED. IF THE ARW IS CORRECT, THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH CONVECTION DEPARTING EARLIER IN THE DAY,
AMPLE WAA AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO SURGE ACROSS THE
AREA, ENHANCE BY DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
OCCUR WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. THE
ONLY COMMON THING AMONGST THE SPREAD IN MODELS IS THAT THE
CONVECTION THAT DOES PUSH INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE DECAYING
REMNANTS OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOMORROW. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A D2 SLIGHT RISK TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL THREAT.
STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECAST AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE
AND MODELS HOPEFULLY GET INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT IN HANDLING WHAT
WILL HAPPEN IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, MOVING A STRONGEST LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM MAY ONCE AGAIN POSE A SEVERE WEATHER RISK, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THIS FAR OUT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
AREAWIDE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN DIP, ALTHOUGH THIS TIME TO NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS FALLING
INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BULK OF
THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS CONSISTENTLY IN THE 70S, POSSIBLY TOUCHING 80
AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 60S. CPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE AREA IN A POTENTIAL
FOR PROLONGED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEK. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT AFTER THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BRIEFLY FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL (IN THE 50S) BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW-END VFR IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS
WITH POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS OCCURRING OCCASIONALLY. EXPECT TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT SO CONTINUED
THE PROB30 LINES. TIMING WISE, THE POTENTIAL HAS REMAIN
CONSISTENT, STARTING AT 01Z FOR THE WESTERN SITES AND THEN 06Z
FOR THE EASTERN SITES. NON-VFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY MOVE OVER STATIONS. EARLY
MORNING TOMORROW, NON-VFR CEILINGS ARE PROBABLE ACROSS THE
REGION AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
THOUGH KCLE WILL RISE TO VFR GIVEN THE LONGER PERIOD. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MID-
MORNING TOMORROW, THOUGH CONFIDENCE AGAIN IS LOW IN THE TIMING
AND SPATIAL EXTENT SO OPTED TO ADD A PROB30 FOR THOSE AS WELL.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH AROUND 00Z TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING. OVERNIGHT WINDS
WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 10-12 KNOTS THEN BEGIN GUSTING AGAIN IN
THE MORNING UP TO 20-25 KNOTS. LITTLE DIRECTIONAL CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED, THOUGH WINDS COULD VARY WITHIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AT 20-25 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN BASIN WILL
EXPIRE AT 10 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE
EXPIRING AT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS 12-18 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. PERIODIC
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ146>149.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...23
MARINE...13
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