852
FXUS61 KCLE 091918
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
318 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2022
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES OVER THE AREA, PERSISTING THROUGH
MID-WEEK. ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BE A FOCUS OF HIGHER MOISTURE.
DUE TO THIS, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG
AND SOUTH OF US-30 WITH AREAS NORTH OF US-30 GRADUALLY SEEING A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THE DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE
KEY IN WHETHER OR NOT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SOME CLEARING IN NW OH AND NW PA WHICH
WOULD AID IN INCREASED OVERNIGHT COOLING. THIS COUPLED WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT,
ESPECIALLY WITH ALL THE RECENT PRECIPITATION. THE CAVEAT HERE IS
THAT IF THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AND SLOWS COOLING, THESE AREAS
MAY NOT REACH SATURATION BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOUD
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING, ADJUSTING THE FOG POTENTIAL AS
NEEDED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED BOUNDARY WILL ALSO KEEP THE POTENTIAL
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY, NO THUNDER
IS ANTICIPATED. AS THE BOUNDARY AGAIN BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND A HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERALL
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE TRUE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE ON OUR DOOR STEP THURSDAY MORNING AS
A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLOW A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BECAUSE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALREADY NORTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOISTURE RETURN IS VERY LIMITED. IN
FACT, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER, AND THE LATEST NBM WAS COMPLETELY
DRY FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES, AN 80-100 KNOT H3 JET STREAK WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHERN OHIO BEING NEAR THE
LEFT EXIT REGION, SO THIS ENHANCED LIFT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. BLENDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MID DAY, DRYING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES STARTS TO BUILD IN. THE DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH (CANADIAN HIGH) BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO COOL, DRY NW FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH
LOWER HUMIDITY (DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WITH MID/UPPER 70S
FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S/LOW 60S WITH
LOW/UPPER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT. OPEN THE WINDOWS FOR A CHANGE!
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG RIDGE
UPSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH WILL
ACTUALLY CLOSE OFF ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY LIFTING UP THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SUNDAY. THIS POINTS TO THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN NOT BREAKING DOWN
ANYTIME SOON, SO TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL STILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY BUT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE BIG MID/UPPER
RIDGE UPSTREAM TRIES TO SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EAST. A SHORTWAVE LOOKS
TO DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE
ASSOCIATED JET ENERGY AND PVA KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT
WITH THE HIGH SLOW TO DEPART AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, DELAYED
MOST OF THE SHOWERS UNTIL SUNDAY. EVEN THEN, JUST EXPECT SCATTERED,
LIGHT SHOWERS SINCE THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT/WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH
PLEASANT HUMIDITY LEVELS CONTINUING, SO IT WILL BE A VERY NICE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, FLATTENING THE UPSTREAM RIDGE A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
RIDGE TO BRIEFLY ELONGATE INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A WARM FRONT
CREEPING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY. THE BEST
INSTABILITY GRADIENT STILL LOOKS TO BE WEST OF OUR REGION, BUT ONE
OR MORE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER REACH OUR
AREA AT SOME POINT, SO KEPT BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION CAN BE BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS THAT ANOTHER (AND STRONGER)
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND KICK THE RIDGE
BACK TOWARD THE ROCKIES CAUSING TROUGHING TO RE-LOAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS, SO KEPT NBM CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY
WITH A PROBABLE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND THAT TIME. HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70'S/LOW 80S, BUT IT WILL BE
MORE HUMID WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH POCKETS OF
BOTH VFR AND IFR. IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, CLOSEST TO THE LOCATION OF THE NEARLY
STALLED BOUNDARY. THERE REMAIN SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 30, WHICH HAS CAUSED
VISIBILITIES TO BRIEFLY DROP TO 3-5 SM. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR TERMINALS IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TERMINALS NORTH OF ROUTE 30 SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE LIFTING OF
CEILINGS TO VFR HEIGHTS, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT, THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPTED TO HANDLE THIS IN A TEMPO FOR KTOL,
KFDY, AND KCLE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE OTHER SITES REMAINS
LOW, SO OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF BUT CONDITIONS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH.
WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ALL TERMINALS LIFTING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IS POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES ON THE LAKE HAVE DIMINISHED NICELY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GENERALLY N TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND WAVES MOSTLY 1 FOOT OR LESS. WINDS WILL BACK
TO WSW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL GENERATE 2-3
FOOT WAVES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN AND POSSIBLY UP TO 4
FEET FROM CONNEAUT TO RIPLEY WHILE 1-2 FOOT WAVES OCCUR IN THE
WESTERN BASIN. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY VEER TO N BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-4 FEET. THIS WILL BE
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND RIP
CURRENTS, BUT KEPT WINDS AND WAVES A LITTLE BELOW CRITERIA FOR NOW.
WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BEFORE TURNING SW AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING SUNDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...CAMPBELL
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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