152  
FXUS61 KCLE 270754  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
354 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM QUEBEC AND  
VICINITY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY NIGHT, A TROUGH SHOULD  
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS TROUGH SHOULD  
LINGER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THIS SATURDAY. ALSO DURING THE  
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME, A PRIMARY LOW EMBEDDED  
WITHIN THE TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY AND THEN DEEPEN, OVERALL, AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY  
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL QUEBEC.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE AXIS OF A FAIRLY NARROW MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY AND AT THE  
SURFACE, THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC  
AND EXTEND SSW'WARD INTO OUR REGION. FAIR WEATHER AND MAINLY  
CLEAR SKY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS MID/UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE  
AND ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE, STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO  
RESIDE OVER OUR CWA. NE'ERLY TO E'ERLY SURFACE WINDS PERSIST  
ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NW PA AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK,  
NET CAA AT/NEAR THE SURFACE. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH  
MAINLY THE MID 50'S TO NEAR 60F DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS  
OF TODAY AND TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH  
THE UPPER 20'S TO MID 30'S IN INTERIOR NORTHERN OH AND NW PA,  
WHILE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30'S TO MID 40'S ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND  
NEAR ~58F LAKE ERIE AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ANOTHER SET OF  
FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE DAY  
SHIFT FOR APPLICABLE FORECAST ZONES IF THE END OF THE GROWING  
SEASON HAS YET TO BE DECLARED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD RETREAT  
N'WARD AND NE'WARD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS A TROUGH  
SHIFTS GENERALLY E'WARD AND THEN NE'WARD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS  
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST UNITED STATES, AND VICINITY,  
INCLUDING OUR CWA. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A POTENT JET STREAK IS  
EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AS THE JET STREAK  
TRANSLATES FROM THE THE GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTH- CENTRAL UNITED  
STATES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND AND  
EASTERN CANADA. DIVERGENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER-  
LEVEL JET STREAK, AND ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/MSLP FALLS  
SHOULD ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NE'WARD OVER THE LOWER MS  
AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN DEEPEN FURTHER AS THE LOW  
WOBBLES GENERALLY NE'WARD IN VICINITY OF THE SPINE OF THE  
APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD SOUTHERN QC ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY, A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE LOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST  
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER OVER NORTHERN OH AND NW PA THROUGH  
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.  
 
GIVEN THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW, OUR REGIONAL  
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK GRADUALLY FROM TO ENE'ERLY  
TO WNW'ERLY DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, WHICH WILL ALLOW OUR  
REGION TO REMAIN WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY, OVERNIGHT  
LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20'S TO UPPER 30'S IN INTERIOR  
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, WHILE LOWS  
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30'S TO MID 40'S ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR  
LAKE ERIE. WEDNESDAY'S DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO  
MID 50'S AND BE FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER  
30'S TO MID 40'S AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD  
REACH ONLY THE UPPER 40'S TO LOWER 50'S ON THURSDAY AND BE  
FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30'S TO LOWER 40'S  
AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY.  
 
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT, INCLUDING TROWAL, OF THE LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT WHILE TAPPING INTO  
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN GULF  
STREAM. ACCORDINGLY, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY  
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS WILL SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN.  
DURING THAT TIME FRAME, ENE'ERLY SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH  
NET COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION MEAN IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR  
PRECIP TO OVERCOME A RATHER DRY ANTECEDENT LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC  
COLUMN AND REACH THE SURFACE VIA THE WET-BULB EFFECT. ON  
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT, INCLUDING TROWAL,  
UNDERGOING MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO  
IMPACT OUR REGION. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY TO HEAVY AT  
TIMES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO  
THE FOLLOWING: THE RELEASE OF WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY VIA  
FRONTOGENETICAL CONVERGENCE AND MOIST ASCENT IN THE TROWAL;  
LAKE-ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP VIA THE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS AND AT  
LEAST WEAK LAKE-INDUCED CAPE AMIDST A SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST  
LOW/MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN OVER THE ~14C LAKE. ANY LAKE-  
ENHANCED PRECIP SHOULD STREAM GENERALLY SW'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE  
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AMIDST NE'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ON  
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, LAKE-ENHANCED PRECIP SHOULD  
EVENTUALLY STREAM GENERALLY S'WARD AND THEN SE'WARD FROM THE  
LAKE AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO N'ERLY AND THEN TO NW'ERLY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, THE TROUGH SHOULD EXIT NE'WARD FROM  
OUR REGION ON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE  
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY AND VICINITY. AT THE  
SURFACE, THE ABOVE-MENTIONED LOW SHOULD WOBBLE NE'WARD AND AWAY  
FROM SOUTHERN QC, BUT A WEAK AND TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD LINGER  
OVER OUR REGION DUE TO THE EXPANSION OF RELATIVELY-WARM,  
LAKE-MODIFIED AIR AS A CHILLY AIR MASS LINGERS OVER/NEAR THE  
GREAT LAKES. WRAP-AROUND RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL SHOULD  
EXIT NE'WARD FROM OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. LAKE-ENHANCED RAIN OVER  
AND GENERALLY EAST OF LAKE ERIE SHOULD TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE-  
EFFECT RAIN (LER) BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE  
PLUMMETS, YET THE LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS  
SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST OVER/DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. DAYTIME HIGHS  
SHOULD REACH ONLY THE UPPER 40'S TO LOWER 50'S. LER SHOULD  
PERSIST OVER AND GENERALLY EAST OF LAKE ERIE FRIDAY NIGHT AMIDST  
A CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. DURING FRIDAY NIGHT, ODDS  
FAVOR DRY WEATHER OUTSIDE THE LER AS STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE  
ACCOMPANIES THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH  
MAINLY THE MID 30'S TO LOWER 40'S AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  
 
ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, CYCLONIC SW'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW  
ALOFT SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION AS A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
ADVANCES E'WARD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE  
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND MUCH MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE  
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT ALSO AFFECT OUR REGION.  
ACCORDINGLY, NET SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS  
NORTHERN OH AND NW PA. LER SHOULD OSCILLATE OVER AND DOWNWIND  
OF LAKE ERIE AS THE PASSAGE OF EACH SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CAUSES  
THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST AIR TO VARY  
BETWEEN W'ERLY AND SW'ERLY. OUTSIDE THE LER, ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DUE, IN PART TO MOIST  
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT, PRECEDING THE AXIS OF EACH SHORTWAVE  
DISTURBANCE. DAYTIME HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD REACH THE UPPER  
40'S TO MID 50'S EACH AFTERNOON. LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE  
MID 30'S TO MID 40'S AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. NOTE: THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX-IN WITH RAIN AT THE SURFACE LATER  
THIS WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ESSENTIALLY NIL SINCE  
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO COLDER THAN -1C TO  
-3C AND THE VERTICAL PROFILE OF WET-BULB TEMPERATURE SHOULD  
YIELD A FAIRLY-DEEP SURFACE-BASED MELTING LAYER OVER OUR REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH  
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KNOTS  
STRENGTHEN TO 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUST UP TO 20  
KNOTS POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OHIO. WINDS 6-10 KNOTS AND BECOME  
WESTERLY AFTER DARK TONIGHT. WINDS MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY  
AT KERI WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20  
KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED WITH AREAWIDE RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING  
THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THURSDAY AS WE  
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND A  
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. THIS  
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS  
IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FOR THIS PERIOD OF  
STRONGER WINDS. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL OF WINDS DOWN TO 10-15  
KNOTS AS THEY BECOME A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE  
STRENGTHENING BACK TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT. IT'S LIKELY  
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD  
(AND BEYOND).  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO AROUND 1004 MB AS  
IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY  
AND THEN POSSIBLY DEEPENING TO SUB-1000MB AS IT CONTINUES TOWARDS  
JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE BY THURSDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, EAST-  
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
AND THEN 25-35 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT, THERE IS A GOOD  
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY,  
PRIMARILY NEAR AND EAST OF THE THE ISLANDS. WINDS AS HIGH AS 40  
KNOTS AND WAVES AS HIGH AS 10 FT MAY BE POSSIBLE IN A REASONABLE  
WORST CASE SCENARIO. AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS  
ONTARIO/QUEBEC, WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING AND THEN WESTERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  
THESE WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY TO BE AROUND 25-30 KNOTS, THOUGH THERE  
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS FRIDAY MORNING  
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010-013-014-  
020>023-030>033-038.  
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ011-012-089.  
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.  
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT  
TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>146.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT  
TONIGHT FOR LEZ147>149.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JASZKA  
NEAR TERM...JASZKA  
SHORT TERM...JASZKA  
LONG TERM...JASZKA  
AVIATION...SAUNDERS  
MARINE...SAUNDERS  
 
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