494  
FXUS61 KCLE 241758  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
158 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC  
OCEAN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE  
OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT  
LAKES TONIGHT WITH THE OHIO VALLEY LOW TRACKING EAST ALONG THIS  
FRONT MONDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. A  
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE  
REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
PULLED BACK ON PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THIS EVENING WITH THIS  
MIDDAY UPDATE. LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MO WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST  
ACROSS KY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WE STILL HAVE A COLD FRONT TO  
OUR NORTH TO SINK SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SO CANNOT RULE OUT A  
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ANYWHERE, BUT FOCUS WILL BE SHIFTED SOUTH AND  
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FROM FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD TO MILLERSBURG  
AND POINTS SOUTH. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.  
 
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...  
CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE  
TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS A COMPACT AREA  
OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TRACKS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW, ON  
THE NOSE OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET MAX. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL  
STREAM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA, WITH  
FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM SFC TO 10KFT THROUGH THE DAY. THE  
BIGGEST CONCERN FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL IS THE BROAD MID LEVEL LIFT  
BEING ABLE TO OVERCOME SUCH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, HOWEVER HAVE  
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP TO KEEP HIGH  
LIKELY/CAT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS  
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER  
SATURATION EXPECTED. HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF  
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE FOCUS OF FORCING WILL SHIFT  
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS A COLD  
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO  
VALLEY. WENT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING POPS SOUTH OF THE AREA  
EARLY MONDAY VS. PREVIOUS FORECAST, ALTHOUGH KEPT SOME  
LINGERING SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER  
LOW/WAVE PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. KEPT HIGHS TODAY NEAR  
MOS NUMBERS, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL  
BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, ALLOWING FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN  
SHOWERS TO POSSIBLY MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS  
ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT THEN  
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE A WARMING TREND BEGIN TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY  
WINDS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES ADDED TO HIGHS.  
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW ENOUGH TO DEVELOP ON  
WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL MAKE IT  
COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE. SO EXPECT A DECENT GRADIENT IN  
TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAKESHORE TO INLAND LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE WARMTH WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW  
PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS  
WILL INCREASE KEEPING THE COOL MARINE LAYER OVER THE LAKE. CURRENT  
THINKING IS THAT WE WILL REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM  
ADVECTION INCREASES OVER THE AREA. I SUPPOSE WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE  
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT  
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON THIS SCENARIO. THE BETTER CHANCES OF  
SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER, WILL BE FRIDAY  
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON A COLD FRONT THAT MAY SAG  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. SO FAR ONLY ONE OF THE MODELS  
IS HINTING THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE REGION. DEFINITELY  
SOMETHING TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING  
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A ROUND  
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE.  
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR THE ENTIRE  
REGION. SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND  
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE  
IN THE 50S. JUST REMEMBER THAT WE HAVE A COLD FRONT LURKING TO OUR  
NORTH FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO THESE TEMPERATURES COULD END UP  
BEING ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE OF THINGS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR A LARGE PART OF THE TAF FORECAST  
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE IN CLOSE TO FDY AND MFD THIS EVENING  
AND DO NOT HAVE LOWER CEILINGS MOVING IN UNTIL CLOSER TO THE  
ARRIVAL OF THE SINKING COLD FRONT. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS  
AFTERNOON WILL TAKE A SHARP SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER  
THE COLD FRONT. FOR A PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY MORNING HAVE MVFR  
CEILINGS, BUT DRY AIR ADVANCES QUICKLY AND BY MIDDAY EXPECT  
THOSE CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT. MINOR GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS  
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THAT NORTHERLY FLOW.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA'S WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS  
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT  
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR  
CLEVELAND TO RIPLEY.  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS  
THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD  
ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE  
TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING  
SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL GENERATE A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND  
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE  
WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE  
TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTS  
EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LAKE  
BREEZE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...GREENAWALT  
NEAR TERM...GREENAWALT/OUDEMAN  
SHORT TERM...MM  
LONG TERM...MM  
AVIATION...OUDEMAN  
MARINE...MM  
 
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