025
FXUS61 KCLE 121814
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
214 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A POTENT SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS EXIST.
2) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRESENT MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
3) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ALTHOUGH THIS WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER WISE, MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER SPECIFICALLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOOKING AT THE OVERALL SET UP, THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US THAT BEGINS TO PIVOT AS A RELATIVELY WEAK
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, AMPLE WAA WILL PERSIST
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE REGION. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY, A STRONG LLJ OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL NUDGE
ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION.
MODELED HODOGRAPHS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INITIAL STORMS COULD
BE ISOLATED AND HAVE SUPERCELL FEATURES BEFORE MERGING INTO A MORE
LINEAR LINE. GIVEN THIS, ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A NON-ZERO
CHANCE OF TORNADOES. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM ONCE IT GETS WITHIN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE TIME FRAME TO
PINPOINT MORE SPECIFICALLY TIMING AND HAZARD CONCERNS.
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS
MEDIUM AT BEST AS OF THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
EVENT COMES FROM THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
THE LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER MAY IMPACT THE THREAT LATER IN THE
DAY. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST AMPLE DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH
MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT IF
CLOUDS LINGER THE CAP MAY BE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME. AS OF
NOW, SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK
WITH A SMALL SLIVER NEAR THE TOLEDO METRO IN A SLIGHT RISK. IN
ADDITION, WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF NW OH IN A MARGINAL DAY 3
ERO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY BEFORE A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALMOST
EVERYDAY GOING FORWARD. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER DEEPENING TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA, PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES. THESE SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE, MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION.
ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE NOTES ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE
TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF STORM POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS WHEN DESTABILIZATION IS
MOST LIKELY. GIVEN THE PERSIST WAA AND GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW, PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE WHICH WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
HEAVY RAIN MAY POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
CONCERN GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEMS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, THERE WILL ALSO BE MULTIPLE
DAYS WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LLJS THAT PUSH
NORTH IN THE AREA. GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT UNLESS
DECOUPLING OCCURS. IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MORAL
OF THE STORY, THE WEATHER WILL BE VERY ACTIVE IN THE COMING WEEK,
BUT DON'T EXPECT EVERYDAY TO BE A COMPLETE WASH OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SPRING LOOKS TO STICK AROUND INTO THE NEAR FUTURE AS ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AND BEYOND. CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLING INTO THE 60S.
LOOKING PAST THIS WEEK, CPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE 8-
14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO LIKELY BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
AS REFERENCE, THE AVERAGE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 20-27 KNOTS. SKIES WILL TREND TOWARDS MOSTLY CLEAR FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS DROP
OFF FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 2K FEET MOVES OVERHEAD.
EXPECT SO SEE WINDS AT THE SURFACE INCREASING BETWEEN 06-12Z
AND REMOVED THE WIND SHEER AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASED TO 15-20
KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS RESUMED. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AND NW PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 07-14Z. SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH 6 MILE OR BETTER
VISIBILITY BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR IN A
MODERATE SHOWER. CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM NEAR 5K FEET TO AROUND
3-4K FEET ON MONDAY MORNING. LOWER CEILINGS SEEM MORE LIKELY
TOWARDS TOL AND IN THE EAST AND BROUGHT IN A FEW HOURS OF MVFR
AT TOL/YNG/ERI. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD ALTHOUGH STARTING TO TREND DOWN BY MID AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND A WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE MAY BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS VERY BRIEFLY EXCEED 20
KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
FOCUS THE HIGHER WAVES INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, WINDS MAY BE JUST WESTERLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WAVES JUST OVER 4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE EASTERN
BASIN MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A BRIEF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER PERIODS OF
ELEVATED WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...10
MARINE...15
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