543  
FXUS61 KCLE 110912  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
512 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD  
TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY  
AMD GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD  
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND STALL OUT SATURDAY. A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND TRACK  
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BRING A NICE WARM UP FOR TODAY AND  
VERY MILD, COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS  
STARTING OFF VERY COOL AND FOR SOME FOLKS A FROSTY FRIDAY  
MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEOH AND NWPA  
WHICH IS GENERALLY WHERE WE HAVE THE FROST ADVISORY THROUGH  
9 AM. NWOH IS NOT AS COOL IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS MORNING.  
 
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACK RIGHT OVER THE AREA  
OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY TOWARDS THE EAST  
COAST. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TODAY ON  
THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT  
WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BRING A BIG WARM UP THIS  
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALSO BOOST OUR HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO THIS  
AFTERNOON. NWPA WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S. NWOH WILL LIKELY  
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH IS A 35 DEGREES OR MORE SWING IN  
TEMPERATURES FROM THIS MORNING COOL START. WINDS WILL INCREASE  
TO 10 TO 15 MPH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A  
FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE UP TO 20 MPH. THE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WILL  
BE MAINLY AREAS OF NWOH AND CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
QUIET WEATHER EXPECT TONIGHT AND MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS  
GENERALLY IN THE 50S. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID  
LEVELS CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL BECOME MORE OVERCAST  
BY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND STALL OUT OVER  
THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START TO POOL ALONG THIS WEAK  
STALLED BOUNDARY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL START TO BRING  
BACK THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN OHIO WITH POPS IF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HIGH  
TEMPS WILL BE NOT AS WARM IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DUE TO  
MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/  
 
A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TRACKS  
EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS (AND MAYBE A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS) REMAIN LIKELY AREAWIDE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,  
ALTHOUGH THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND  
THE RESULTING PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AXIS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT,  
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES  
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN ANOTHER PUSH OF SHOWERS  
ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BY  
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND 850MB TEMPS  
DROP TO -1 TO -3C. AS WITH MOST LOCAL LAKE EFFECT EVENTS, THE  
HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NE OH/NW PA, BUT PORTIONS OF NW OH  
MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY  
NIGHT IF NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IS STRONG ENOUGH. RAIN  
WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW  
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF  
INTERIOR NW PA AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOWER 30S LATE MONDAY  
NIGHT. IT ALSO COULD BE QUITE BREEZY ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.  
 
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE THE LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH  
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S EXPECTED AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL  
BEGIN TO DECLINE SUNDAY NIGHT (LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO  
LOWER 40S) AND MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. THE COOLEST  
TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT; MOST LOCATIONS  
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWER 30S MORE LIKELY ACROSS  
INTERIOR NW PA. FROST IS LIKELY IN LOCATIONS WITH LOWER CLOUD COVER  
MONDAY NIGHT AND A FEW SPOTS IN NW PA MAY DROP CLOSE TO  
FREEZING.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ANCHOR OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND LAKE  
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH EXITS TO  
THE EAST AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SO MAINTAINED POPS  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY, BUT GUIDANCE IS  
SUGGESTING THAT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY NO LATER THAN THE PREDAWN  
HOURS OF THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OVER THE  
REGION. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED, BUT EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING  
TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE  
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE  
30S TO LOWER 40S EACH NIGHT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST  
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO FAIR SKIES TODAY WITH  
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY TO  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN THIS MORNING AND INCREASE  
TO 8 AND 12 KNOTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE UP TO 20  
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR NWOH AND AND CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.  
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH NON-VFR  
EXPECTED THIS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING  
OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS IN THE OPEN  
WATERS OF THE FAR EASTERN BASIN OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL  
SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY BECOMING  
NORTHEASTERLY AND DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY MORNING.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING  
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. A LULL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY  
NIGHT BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF  
LAKE ERIE ON SUNDAY. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25  
KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY,  
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN A STRETCH OF SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORIES. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS  
ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW  
DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SO WILL NEED TO  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS IN THE UPCOMING DAYS. WILL ALSO  
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS SUNDAY NIGHT  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT  
LAKES AND 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET.  
 
 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ010-013-014-  
020>023-029>033-036>038-047.  
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ002-003.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT  
SATURDAY FOR LEZ145-146.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT  
SATURDAY FOR LEZ147>149.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...GRIFFIN  
NEAR TERM...GRIFFIN  
SHORT TERM...MAINES  
LONG TERM...MAINES  
AVIATION...GRIFFIN  
MARINE...MAINES  
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