854
FXUS61 KCLE 022001
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
401 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND GENERAL
MESSAGING ON EXPECTATIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S. THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK
FOR NWOH.
2) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT FRIDAY AND LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER WILL
BE AROUND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER
RISK FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE OHIO TURNPIKE.
3) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO OVERNIGHT WITH A MINIMAL
SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR MOST OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NWPA.
4) THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SHIFT TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1:
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD EARLY TODAY AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 60S AND 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON, THE WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE. THERE IS A LITTLE DELAY WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE DUE TO INFLUENCE OF THE COLD
MARINE LAYER. BUT EVENTUALLY THE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
WIN THE BATTLE FOR THE LAKESHORE AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE GREAT
LAKES REGION IS TRACKING THROUGH THE CORNBELT OF THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BETTER SEVERE WEATHER SETUP AND
THERMODYNAMICS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR
LOCAL AREA. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A COUPLE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO TRY TO MAKE IT INTO NWOH LATER THIS
EVENING, WITH AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. BUT OVERALL, WE
ARE EXPECTING A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE #2:
THE COLD FRONT WILL RUN OUT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO FULLY MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL OHIO ON FRIDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A
WASHOUT FOR FRIDAY INTO THE EVENING BUT POPS WILL BE BETWEEN 40
AND 60 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK FOR A
COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK
INTO THE 70S ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE #3:
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. WE MAY HAVE SOME
LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN POPS AND RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH INTO NWOH BY EARLY
EVENING WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS WELL. THE GENERAL TIMING OF STORM
WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 12 AM FROM WEST TO
EAST SATURDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
BE POSSIBLE AND A MINOR FLOOD THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE #4:
A BIG SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE INITIAL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLDER WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED,
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WHICH WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE SNOWBELT REGION OF
NEOH/NWPA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
MAIN CONCERN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE AN
APPROACHING AREA OF DECAYING SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TOL. OTHERWISE, APART
FROM ERI, WENT WITH VCSH TO COVER THIS AREA OF EASTWARD-MOVING
SHOWERS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. THE CURRENT VCSH MENTION MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH
VCTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. BRIEF MVFR AND/OR IFR VSBYS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON,
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT TOL/ERI WILL BECOME SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. A PERIOD OF MARGINAL LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF
SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG 2KFT 210 TO
220-DIRECTION LLJ OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LLWS THREAT WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR MORE
LIKELY ON SATURDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD
FRONT. LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. NON-VFR MAY
RETURN ON MONDAY IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
ELEVATED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT, THOUGH GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT TIMING AND
THE BRIEF PERIOD OF THE STRONGER WINDS, OPTED AGAINST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TOWARDS
THE WEST ON FRIDAY, 10 TO 15 KNOTS, AS A WARM FRONT SETTLES JUST
SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THE NEXT CONCERN FOR HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT USHERS IN WEST
WINDS OF 20 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE ERIE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON
MONDAY, THOUGH DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
RANGE. STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY
ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH COULD
POSE A STRONG WIND THREAT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
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