768
FXUS61 KCLE 260822
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
322 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED THE SNOW FORECAST FOR TODAY'S LAKE-EFFECT SNOW, AND
WE'RE NOW LOOKING AT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. ALSO
INCREASED THE SNOW FORECAST FOR TUESDAY'S CLIPPER. GENERALLY
EXPECTING MOST OF THE AREA TO GET AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW,
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.
FINALLY, THE EXTREME COLD WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING, WITH WIND CHILLS FORECAST TO REACH -25 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE-EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, CAUSING POOR ROAD CONDITIONS TO LINGER
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
2) DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -25 F ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT COLD EXPOSURE RISKS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
3) LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY, WITH LAKE-
ENHANCED SNOW PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THIS MAY PRODUCE
MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
4) PROLONGED COLD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND CREATING
ELEVATED RISKS FOR COLD EXPOSURE AND DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING 850MB LOW
CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR OVER LAKE EFFECT
HAS PRODUCED MINOR LAKE-INDUCED CAPE, WHICH ALONG WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAS PRODUCED LIGHT, ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING. AREA CAMERAS AND TRAFFIC SPEED
INFORMATION INDICATES THAT TRAVEL IMPACTS REMAIN DUE TO SNOW-
COVERED ROADS, INCLUDING ON MANY MAJOR HIGHWAYS. FOR NOW, HAVE
LEFT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACTIVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING UNTIL ITS CLEAR
THE TRAVEL IMPACTS HAVE BEEN MINIMIZED.
UPSTREAM, AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES, FURTHER PRODUCING LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE UP
700MB. 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD FURTHER COOL DOWN THIS MORNING
TO AROUND -18 C, WHICH AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES,
SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE PRIMARY
SNOWBELT. DESPITE LAKE ERIE BEING NEARLY ICE-COVERED (LATEST
ANALYSIS HAS LAKE ERIE AT 92% ICE-COVERED), ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AND WARMTH CAN BE PROVIDED THROUGH THIN ICE, AND CRACKS IN THE
ICE. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN EASTERN CUYAHOGA, SOUTHERN LAKE,
NORTHERN GEAUGA, AND ERIE, PA SOUTH OF I-90. WHERE IT SNOWS,
EXPECT MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ONCE ITS CLEAR THAT ROADWAYS HAVE IMPROVED A LITTLE BIT MORE,
IT'S LIKELY THAT THE ACTIVE WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE
DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND EXTENDED THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST, AND AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
TEXAS WILL EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN, SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF CLEARING
SKIES, AND AIDED BY A DEEP SNOWPACK, SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRENDED
LOWER WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL OHIO WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES COULD DIP TO -5 OR
LOWER. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
COLD AIR TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS DOWN
TO -25. THE EXTREME COLD WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 11 AM
TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY WITH SUFFICIENT COLD AIR AND MOISTURE DEPTH FOR BRIEF,
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN PATCHY BLOWING OR DRIFTING
SNOW, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-71 WHERE WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND
MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH STUBBORN ANOMALOUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE RECENT SNOW STORM HAS PRODUCED A DEEP SNOWPACK AREAWIDE,
WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. AIR
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW ZERO WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING BETWEEN -10 AND -25,
INCREASING THE RISK OF FROSTBITE OR HYPOTHERMIA. ADDITIONAL
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES OR EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE LIKELY.
INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS FROM COLD AIR TEMPERATURES TEND TO
INCREASE FOR LONGER DURATION EVENTS, ESPECIALLY WHEN THE DAILY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DIPS BELOW 16 DEGREES (THIS IS A LOCAL
CRITERIA) FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. THIS RESULTS IN INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF BURST FROZEN PIPES, DEAD CAR BATTERIES, POWER
OUTAGES, INCREASED CHANCES FOR CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING (FROM
IMPROPER USE OF SECONDARY SOURCES OF HEAT) AND STRUCTURE FIRES.
ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL LIKELY START TO SEE ICE DEVELOP AND
THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES THROUGH 06Z/TUES. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK
FROM NE'ERLY TO SW'ERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND REMAIN AROUND
5 TO 15 KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE. GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ~15Z/MON AND ~23Z/MON. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ~23Z/MON AND WILL
HAVE BASES PRIMARILY IN THE RANGE OF 800 FT TO 3.5KFT AGL. AFTER
~23Z/MON, SKY SHOULD CLEAR CONSIDERABLY ACROSS MOST OF OUR
REGION. HOWEVER, SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULI
WITH BASES NEAR 3KFT AGL SHOULD STREAM GENERALLY E'WARD ACROSS
FAR-NE OH AND NW PA THROUGH ~04Z/TUES AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
06Z/TUES AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM W'ERLY TOWARD
SW'ERLY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW (LES) DOWNWIND OF
MAINLY ICE-COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD IMPACT NE OH AND NW PA
THROUGH ~04Z/TUES AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS FROM N'ERLY
TOWARD SW'ERLY. AFTER ~04Z/TUES, LINGERING LES SHOULD BECOME
LOCATED OFFSHORE OUR REGION. VISIBILITY SHOULD VARY BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN THE LES.
OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW WITH NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GREATEST CHANCES EXIST
IN NE OH AND NW PA, WHERE PERIODIC LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF
MAINLY ICE-COVERED LAKE ERIE SHOULD OCCUR.
MARINE
NW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO WSW BY THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KNOTS. SW WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS WILL TURN WNW BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BACK WINDS ON THE LAKE TO SW AT 10-20
KNOTS WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING NW AND DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NW
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
LAKE ERIE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED, AND THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN THIS WEEK AS A DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION. THE SHIFTING WIND DIRECTIONS MAY ALSO CAUSE THE ICE TO
SHIFT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PERIODS OF STRONGER SW WINDS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ010>014-020>023-089.
PA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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