197
FXUS61 KCLE 172327
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
727 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A PROLONGED WET PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A DECAYING
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THAT TREND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A WEAK DOWNSTREAM
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN MICHIGAN WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA WILL LARGELY REMAIN DRY
BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON'S PRECIPITATION, THOUGH SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES MAY INCREASE AGAIN FOR A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST (FINDLAY TO MOUNT VERNON) AS A SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN BEGINNING ON SATURDAY AND COULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT A WARM
FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY, BEFORE IT STALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS,
THE MOST WIDESPREAD OF WHICH SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND ANOMALOUSLY-HIGH PWATS.
THE LATEST UPPER-LEVEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH OR IMPACT THE AREA. THIS INCLUDES A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE AND RESIDUAL
TROUGHING BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF MAINLY RAIN WILL
OCCUR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AREAL FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BECOME DOMINANT ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FINALLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH OF
THE REGION. IN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, THIS STRATUS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE STRATUS TO FINALLY SCOUR/ERODE
OUT. SCT FLAT CUMULUS FIELD FL035-045 INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FRIDAY. WINDS NORTHEASTERLY COULD BRIEFLY ECLIPSE 12KTS AFTER
17Z.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
BRIEF ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT USHERS IN NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE BRIEF NATURE OF 3 TO 4-FOOTERS, OPTED AGAINST
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT, 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING INTO
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STATIONARY FRONT SETTLES
JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN SURFACE TROUGHING AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF GALE-FORCE GUSTS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, THOUGH
AT THIS TIME, THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES
APPEARS LOW.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...26
MARINE...KAHN
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