926
FXUS61 KCLE 160000
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
800 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS.
3) COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH THE
WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL INSTABILITY (~500
J/KG) BUT PLENTY OF BULK SHEAR GIVEN A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50
KNOTS WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LOCALIZED 50 MPH OR GREATER WIND GUST,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. SPC HAS
MAINTAINED THIS AREA IN THEIR SWODY1 OUTLOOK. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
INSTABILITY WANES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT WILL GLIDE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING EAST OF I-71 AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST ACROSS NOON ON FRIDAY BUT EXPECT FOR
LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DRAPES ITSELF ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH RANGE BETWEEN 0.25-0.50"
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONFINED TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
CLEVELAND METRO GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION LAKE ENHANCED RAINFALL
WITH A LAKE HURON CONNECTION. LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN
ANY THUNDERSTORM.
IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL, WINDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE CAA REGIME. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PEAK AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN ELEVATED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY AND WINDS DECREASE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FALL INTO THE MID
30S. THE FROST POTENTIAL REMAINS LIMITED GIVEN STRONG WIND SPEEDS,
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT, LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE PROBABILITIES FOR
FROST REMAIN HIGH OUTSIDE OF LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKESHORE GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE
ONLY TERMINAL THAT REMAINS VFR IS KERI, BUT EXPECT THAT SITE TO
FALL TO MVFR BY 02Z. THIS WILL LEAD TO FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS, WITH EVENTUALLY SOME IFR
AROUND THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MVFR, AND
BRIEFLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. KTOL, KFDY, AND KMFD WILL TRY
TO DRY OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING FARTHER EAST.
LIGHT SE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TURN SW AND INCREASE TO 15-20
KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AS
THE WINDS FIRST INCREASE ABOVE THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY AT KTOL,
KFDY, KMFD, AND KCLE WHERE A LOW-LEVEL JET NOSES OVERHEAD. BY
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, SURFACE GUSTS SHOULD REDUCE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER WEST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH W WINDS OF 15-25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NW AND SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY
GUST OVER 30KT AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
MARINE
EAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL TURN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE
INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LAKE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO WINDS TURNING NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 5-10 FEET DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHERLY AROUND 25-30 KNOTS
WITH WAVES OF 8-11 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
DECREASE AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR LEZ142-143-149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LEZ144>148.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...13
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