423
FXUS61 KCLE 201943
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
343 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF POPS
ON SATURDAY. RAISED POPS IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT SOUTH
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
2) THE NEXT STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL COME SATURDAY WITH
EXPANDING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS UNDERGOING DRYING, AN
AGITATED CU FIELD CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM NEAR
CANTON TO BOWLING GREEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THIS SOUTHWARD DRIFTING BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OR PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TOWARDS 7 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOLLOWING A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED ON
SATURDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SEE CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DEVELOP WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF POPS
SLIGHTLY BUT DO EXPECT 70-80 PERCENT COVERAGE SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -14 TO -16C WILL PIVOT EAST OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE FRONT, SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE AN ADDED FOCUS ACROSS LAKE ERIE. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY WITH A LOW END THREAT OF BOTH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION, IF ANY WEST TO EAST BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STATIONARY OFF THE LAKE INTO NW
PENNSYLVANIA THEN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD DEVELOP.
WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BASED
ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH ALOFT.
850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 8C ON SUNDAY AND TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ON MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LIGHT
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND
ACROSS INLAND TERMINALS (MAINLY TOL AND MFD/CAK/YNG) THROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FEW/SCT LOW-TO-MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANY REDUCTIONS TO
NON-VFR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR BR AT MFD AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK.
GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY AND
DECREASE TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL BE
FAVORED BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. NON-VFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
MARINE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BASINS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 1-3 FEET. BY THIS EVENING, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SHIFT EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE DECREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY SUNDAY WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY LEADING TO WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 2-4 FEET
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED TO END THE WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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