370
FXUS61 KCLE 280714
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
314 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE THIS MORNING AS WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DECAYING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
2) MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MIDWEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TONIGHT, A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. CURRENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DECAY AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO AN AREA WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A
CAPPED LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH EASTERN COUNTIES LIKELY NOT EVEN HEARING THUNDER BY THE
TIME SHOWERS ARRIVE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LIMITED, THESE ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
REMAINING DEVELOPED ENOUGH TO TAP INTO A STRONG LLJ OF 50-60 KNOTS
THAT HAS PUSHED NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PERIODIC WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH
REACHING THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE LIMITED INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION
ITSELF, OPTED TO HANDLE THE WIND POTENTIAL WITH A SHORT FUSED WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL 3AM. ISOLATED GUSTS AFTER 3AM
REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD BE LESS FREQUENT IN NATURE AND THUS THE
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA, A
WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 11AM THIS MORNING FOR ERIE
COUNTY, PA AS STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ENHANCED DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING AND RESULT IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS AREA OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOST WELL DEVELOPED CELLS. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM, NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES.
WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN THROUGH THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO END
WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL
SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE AREA WHICH WILL BECOME THE PATH THAT ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TO REMAIN
VERY LOW GIVEN THE MUCH COOLER AIRMASS PRESENT. HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS PWATS GREATER THAN 1" AND A VERY DEEP MOISTURE LAYER
WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THERE REMAINS LIMITED CONCERN
ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LOW, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN THE 2-
DAYS COULD EXCEED 1", ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US30.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS,
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED, ALLOWING
FOR PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO PURSUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE
50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
FALLING INTO THE 30S. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVERALL TRENDS IN
TEMPERATURES AS THESE OVERNIGHT PERIODS MAY REQUIRE A FROST HEADLINE
AS MUCH OF THE VEGETATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO GROW ACROSS THE AREA.
AS ALWAYS, THERE ARE VARIOUS FACTORS THAT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST, INCLUDING THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AND THE IMPACT
OF CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING THE SURFACE TO FURTHER COOL. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALL OF THESE ASPECTS IN COMING DAYS. IN
ADDITION, THE CPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN AN AREA OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
REMNANT CONVECTION FROM AN ACTIVE DAY WEST OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO EAST, BUT HAVE REMOVED MOST MENTIONS
OF THUNDER AS A PREVAILING CONDITION FOR THE TERMINALS. WITH THE
ONSET OF SHOWERS/RAIN, EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP PRIMARILY TO
MVFR, AND MVFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN RAIN AS WELL.
WINDS COULD REACH 30-40KTS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, AND
WITH THE LINGERING CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH. COLD FRONT ARRIVES
AROUND 12Z FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS, AND SHOULD EXIT TO THE
EAST AROUND 21Z. WINDS GO FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND WILL GRADUALLY EASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE BEGINNING EARLY TODAY, OFFSHORE WINDS 20-30KTS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY LATER TODAY 10-15KTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASING
TO 1-3FT IN THE NEARSHORE AND OPEN WATER ZONES. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF
THE LAKE WILL BRING WINDS ONSHORE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
10-20 KTS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4FT, THEN EASING TO 10-15KTS
THURSDAY AND WAVE HEIGHTS 1-3FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY, AND THEN WINDS BECOME WESTERLY 10-15KTS FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT WAVE HEIGHT RESULTS ARE NEARLY THE SAME IN THE
1-3FT RANGE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>149.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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