988
FXUS61 KCLE 042336
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
635 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE ON
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GLIDE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL ALSO LIFT A WARM FRONT
EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
EXPECT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE TEENS IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OHIO. WARMER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH HIGHS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AREAWIDE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SETTLE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO REMAIN AS PLAIN RAIN. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH SKIRTS TO THE
EAST. EXPECT FOR A DRY WINDOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
ANOTHER LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL GENERALLY SETTLE IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 40S ON
WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONTINUED WARMTH AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE GFS, MOST MEDIUM/LONG
RANGE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND PUSHING NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH
EACH FORECAST CYCLE TO ADJUST TIMING OF POPS THROUGH THE END THE
WEEK AS NEEDED. REGARDLESS OF EXACT TIMING, A PROLONGED WINDOW OF
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN TO END THE
WEEK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FULLY MELTED SNOWPACK AND RISES ON AREA
RIVERS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S BEFORE HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
IN THE MID 30S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
WITH HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MVFR CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY ERODE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS
THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
AIRSPACE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF KERI BUT VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MUCH HAPPENING AT THE TERMINAL. A MIX OF MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THIS LOW ON MONDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AIRSPACE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR
CEILINGS TO RETURN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THESE CEILINGS IS AT
KERI BUT THEY MAY EXPAND FURTHER AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
NON- VFR LIKELY ON TUESDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS WITH
LOW CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NON- VFR POSSIBLE IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS MAY INCREASE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND BRIEFLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL NEED
TO MONITOR TRENDS IN FUTURE UPDATES FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.
OTHERWISE, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST
INTO FRIDAY, 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...KAHN
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