215  
FXUS61 KCLE 300109  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
909 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER  
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL  
EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER  
RIDGE BUILDS FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
905 PM UPDATE...  
RUNNING OUT OF ADJECTIVES TO DESCRIBE THIS VERY QUIET WEATHER  
PATTERN AND THE RECENT EVENINGS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES A  
BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS EVENINGS, AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER  
TO SPEAK OF, IF ANY AT ALL. MINOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ADJUSTMENTS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
ALOFT, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR CWA AS THE CORE OF THE  
RIDGE MOVES FROM JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND  
THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE ATTENDANT RIDGE  
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA AS A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW WOBBLES  
AND DRIFTS NE'WARD FROM THE CAROLINAS TOWARD ATLANTIC WATERS JUST  
EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST  
IN OUR CWA DUE, IN PART, TO A STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION  
ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE. THE ONGOING LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE  
CIRCULATION AMIDST A WEAK N'ERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE MSLP GRADIENT  
WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO EVENTUAL NOCTURNAL  
COOLING OF SURROUNDING LAND. ON TUESDAY, A WEAK E'ERLY SYNOPTIC  
SCALE MSLP GRADIENT AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING OF LAND  
SURROUNDING ~56F LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE TO  
OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MAXIMUM  
INLAND EXTENT OF THIS LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ~5 MILES  
FROM LAKE ERIE GIVEN THE EXPECTED E'ERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE MSLP  
GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE-NORMAL DUE, IN PART, TO  
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW-LEVEL WAA ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE MID 50'S TO LOWER 60'S  
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATE  
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE UPPER 60'S TO  
LOWER 80'S WITHIN THE LAKE BREEZE AND MAINLY THE MID 80'S TO  
NEAR 90F FARTHER INLAND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE  
REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE MAY END UP SEEING SOME  
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DRIFT INTO NW OH FROM STORMS THAT  
DEVELOP OVER IL/IN. OTHER THAN THAT THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY  
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO  
BE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS A WESTWARD DRIFT FRIDAY ALLOWING A COLD  
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS COLD FRONT MAY  
DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND MAY BE  
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NY INTO  
NORTHERN PA. WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY ACROSS THE REGION AT  
THIS POINT IN TIME SINCE THERE ISNT ALL THAT MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
TO LIFT. AT MOST WE END UP SEEING AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.  
STAY TUNED TO SEE IF WE CAN PLACE A MENTION OF THIS ISOLATED  
RAINFALL INTO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE  
TAKES BACK CONTROL OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES  
CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 90  
DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
VFR CONTINUES. WIND DIRECTION CHANGES REMAINS THE ONLY HIGHLIGHT  
IN THE FORECAST. WINDS LESS THAN 12KTS TONIGHT, BECOMING  
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 06Z. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE  
LAKESHORE, AND TERMINALS IN THE VICINITY AT CLE/ERI GO BACK TO  
NORTHEAST FLOW AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO RIDGE ONTO THE LAKE  
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT  
WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. SO EXPECT TO SEE A MOSTLY  
EASTERLY WIND. THE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS  
TURNING A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JASZKA  
NEAR TERM...JASZKA/26  
SHORT TERM...MM  
LONG TERM...MM  
AVIATION...26  
MARINE...MM  
 
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