936
FXUS61 KCLE 191156
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
656 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OHIO AS VISIBILITY HAS
DROPPED TO LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA UNTIL 9AM AND COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
2) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS LIKELY ALONG
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
3) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEGUN TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
COLDER AIR IS MOVING SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS DROPPED
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SATURATION AND WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG TO FORM. IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INVERSION IN
PLACE AND THE LOW LEVELS BEING SATURATED FROM THE PRECIPITATION
EARLIER TODAY. FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE MID MORNING TODAY
THOUGH COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE UP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL ENTER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THURSDAY EVENING, TRACKING NORTHEASTERLY FROM
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LOW WILL BE OCCLUDING AS IT
ENTERS THE REGION, SO THE WARM SECTOR INFLUENCE WILL BE MINIMAL
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. THOUGH WITH THAT, THERE
WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND LOWER AS
THE SYSTEM PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. MUCAPE WILL BE AROUND
300-500 J/KG WITH DECENT BULK SHEAR SUPPORTED BY A LLJ OF 35-45
KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL. SPC HAS PUT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, ANCHORED BY THE HAIL THREAT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST HAS A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH OF QPF FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS, HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
MORNING ON FRIDAY.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE WARM, UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE REGION, BUT THERE WILL BE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GO
ALONG WITH IT. A LLJ OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS, GENERALLY WEST OF THE
I-71 CORRIDOR, WILL BE 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.
TO THE EAST, WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REINFORCING THE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW 40S ON SATURDAY BEFORE
DROPPING MORE TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
REGARDLESS, SATURDAY SHOULD STAY DRY UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE EAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PRECIPITATION WILL
RETURN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FORM ON SNOW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE IS PULLED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THOUGH LIGHT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO THE WEST. ACCUMULATION IS BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST.
THE MAIN PLAYER FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE WITH THE LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN THE SNOW BELT THAT COULD DEVELOP
WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN AND
PRECIPITATION WANES.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS BLANKETS MOST OF THE AIRSPACE THIS
MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN NORTHERN INDIANA WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH NW OHIO AND
THE KTOL AREA. ANY RAIN SHOULD DISTURB SOME OF THE LIFR
CONDITIONS THERE. HOWEVER, RAIN MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH ANY OTHER
TERMINAL. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING FOR
THE LIFR CONDITIONS LIFTING. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING WITH
DAYBREAK AND SOME SLIGHT ADVANCEMENT IN THE FRONT NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE LAKE THAT MAY ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS TO GET TO IFR OR
THE LOWER REACHES OF MVFR. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND
SOME OF THE COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE SURGED SOUTH, THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER CLOUDS AND LOW VISIBILITY TO REMAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AND LIFT THE
FRONT NORTH. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM
AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BETTER COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED
SOUTHWEST OF THE AIRSPACE BUT SOME SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
MAY ENTER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND HAVE SOME VCTS MENTIONS
AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. THIS RAIN WILL BE ENTERING A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE, SO SOME MIX OF IFR/MVFR WILL BE MORE EASY TO
ACHIEVE. BEHIND THE RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS, THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS TO LIFT
SLIGHTLY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUES ON FRIDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. NON-
VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
MARINE
COLDER AIR HAS RETURNED OVER THE LAKE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
NOW SOUTH OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING. THIS COLDER AIR HAS TAKEN
ADVANTAGE OF SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, COURTESY OF THE
INITIAL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY, AND DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ON THE LAKE. THIS FOG WILL LAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
NOON. OUTSIDE OF THE FOG, THE LAKE SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY STEADY
STATE WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FOR FRIDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE THE STATIONARY
FRONT NORTH AGAIN WITH SOME OOMPH IN A 45 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
SOME WARM ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN TO GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ICE TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE LAKE
AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WILL ALLOW FOR
MOVEMENT OF THE ICE FIELDS. ANY ICE FLOES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
FOLKS ON LAKE ERIE AND MAY BLOCK OR CLOSE ESTABLISHED SHIPPING
CHANNELS. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY OFF THE LAKE ERIE.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION, ALLOWING FOR 15 TO 20 KTS OF NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEZ142>149-162>169.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page