692
FXUS61 KCLE 141933
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
333 PM EDT WED APR 14 2021
SYNOPSIS
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN ELONGATED 1014MB LOW EAST OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO WESTERN NEW YORK. IN
ADDITION, A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM MICHIGAN THUMB TO
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS 10 KNOTS WERE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER,
WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 WERE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A DEEP LOW OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CLOUD COVER FROM MINNESOTA TO MICHIGAN. THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE EAST DRAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS ON THE BACK SIDE OR WEST SIDE OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING MOISTURE AND LOWER THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT, SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMS. IN ADDITION, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
ON THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OCCURRING THURSDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER
HEIGHTS AND LOWERED THICKNESS VALUES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MAY YIELD A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS/GRAUPEL ACROSS
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME, ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN INCH.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA BEFORE MOVING EAST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS, PERHAPS MIXING WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NW PA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WILL AFFECT THE SNOW BELT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING, AS A TROUGH SWINGS AROUND THE UPPER
LOW SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A FILLING UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THIS COULD
BRING A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO TO THE AREA, BUT AT THIS POINT KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY WITH THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND GIVEN THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A
BIT STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, MAINTAINING IT THROUGH THE AREA
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP POSSIBLE, SO TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR A FORECAST ADJUSTMENT IF NECESSARY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S ACROSS NW PA TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 ACROSS NW
OH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AWAY FROM THE
LAKE, AND THE LOW 40S NEAR THE LAKE. FROST POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS
POINT DESPITE CALM WINDS AND THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE FROST DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS WELL. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE AREA, WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR LOWS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONT AND SOME COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE WARMEST DAY MONDAY BEING
NEAR NORMAL.
MARINE
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
A BIT OUT OF THE WEST THURSDAY AND WILL THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY, GENERALLY UP TO/AROUND 15 KTS AND 2-4 FT WAVES POSSIBLE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE IF
WINDS INCREASE A BIT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER/MORE VARIABLE
OR SLIGHTLY NORTHERLY TO WESTERLY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FZ
NEAR TERM...FZ
SHORT TERM...GREENAWALT
LONG TERM...GREENAWALT
AVIATION...FZ
MARINE...GREENAWALT
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