215
FXUS61 KCLE 300109
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
909 PM EDT MON MAY 29 2023
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
RIDGE BUILDS FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
905 PM UPDATE...
RUNNING OUT OF ADJECTIVES TO DESCRIBE THIS VERY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN AND THE RECENT EVENINGS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS EVENINGS, AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
TO SPEAK OF, IF ANY AT ALL. MINOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ADJUSTMENTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ALOFT, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR CWA AS THE CORE OF THE
RIDGE MOVES FROM JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE ATTENDANT RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA AS A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW WOBBLES
AND DRIFTS NE'WARD FROM THE CAROLINAS TOWARD ATLANTIC WATERS JUST
EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
IN OUR CWA DUE, IN PART, TO A STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE. THE ONGOING LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION AMIDST A WEAK N'ERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE MSLP GRADIENT
WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO EVENTUAL NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF SURROUNDING LAND. ON TUESDAY, A WEAK E'ERLY SYNOPTIC
SCALE MSLP GRADIENT AND SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING OF LAND
SURROUNDING ~56F LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE TO
OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MAXIMUM
INLAND EXTENT OF THIS LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ~5 MILES
FROM LAKE ERIE GIVEN THE EXPECTED E'ERLY SYNOPTIC SCALE MSLP
GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE-NORMAL DUE, IN PART, TO
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW-LEVEL WAA ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE MID 50'S TO LOWER 60'S
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATE
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE UPPER 60'S TO
LOWER 80'S WITHIN THE LAKE BREEZE AND MAINLY THE MID 80'S TO
NEAR 90F FARTHER INLAND.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE MAY END UP SEEING SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DRIFT INTO NW OH FROM STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER IL/IN. OTHER THAN THAT THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO
BE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS A WESTWARD DRIFT FRIDAY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS COLD FRONT MAY
DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND MAY BE
ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NY INTO
NORTHERN PA. WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT DRY ACROSS THE REGION AT
THIS POINT IN TIME SINCE THERE ISNT ALL THAT MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO LIFT. AT MOST WE END UP SEEING AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.
STAY TUNED TO SEE IF WE CAN PLACE A MENTION OF THIS ISOLATED
RAINFALL INTO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES BACK CONTROL OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 90
DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONTINUES. WIND DIRECTION CHANGES REMAINS THE ONLY HIGHLIGHT
IN THE FORECAST. WINDS LESS THAN 12KTS TONIGHT, BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 06Z. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE
LAKESHORE, AND TERMINALS IN THE VICINITY AT CLE/ERI GO BACK TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO RIDGE ONTO THE LAKE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. SO EXPECT TO SEE A MOSTLY
EASTERLY WIND. THE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TURNING A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JASZKA
NEAR TERM...JASZKA/26
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...26
MARINE...MM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page