802
FXUS61 KCLE 261146
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
646 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW HAS TRENDED UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL
EXPECTING GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. THE QPF/SNOW AXIS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA, SO THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL SNOW HAS
DECREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
2) A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BRING AN INCH OR LESS OF
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
3) SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR MINOR
IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO. CONFIDENCE IN THE
PLACEMENT OF SNOW IS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
1) HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY DEPARTS TO THE EAST
COAST BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE MONTH, AS WE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS.
2) AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A DEEPENING/OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW
MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A WEAK AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY EVENING, PRODUCING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR A SHORT
PERIOD SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS
PRODUCED SHOULD CONFIDENTLY FALL AS SNOW. IT'S A PRETTY WEAK
SYSTEM THOUGH, AND OVERALL ONLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED.
3) A COLD AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
AS IT BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERTOP A BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN AREA OF WINTER
WEATHER. LOCALLY, IT HAS BEEN BECOMING LESS LIKELY FOR AN
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PROJECTS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE IS MORE LIKELY TO PUSH THE QPF AXIS FURTHER SOUTH,
WITH INDICATIONS OF A LOWER QPF OVERALL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
MODELS. WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER IS
DECREASING, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL OHIO.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH STUBBORN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW PA AND
FAR NORTHEASTERN OHIO FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL LARGELY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 5
TO 10 KNOTS AT MOST TERMINALS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE AS SNOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL NON-VFR POSSIBLE AS SNOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
MARINE
EXPECT RELATIVELY CALM MARINE CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND SUSTAINED WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT AS A
WEAK LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.
VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW ICE ON THE LAKE TO SHIFT AROUND OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ICE DECAY IS LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
WELL ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND AGAIN FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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