614
FXUS61 KCLE 161202
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE IS TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING DOWN A FEW DEGREES WHICH COULD BRING
FREEZING FOG IMPACTS. VISIBILITY WAS ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS AS THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES AS VISIBILITY LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF A MILE IS OBSERVED FROM THE I-71 CORRIDOR, EASTWARD. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE MID-MORNING.
2) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE FALLING
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES, THE
REMAINING SNOW PACK WILL MELT PROVIDING A MINOR RISK IN RIVER RISES
AND ICE JAMS.
3) PERIODIC PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH ANOTHER CHANCE ON
FRIDAY. RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND WITH A COLDER AIR MASS
OVER THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A
DEPARTING LOW TO THE EAST IN ADDITION TO LIGHT WINDS WILL HAS
ALLOWED FOR DENSE FOG TO FORM. MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS FOR VISIBILITIES
LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE WILL BE EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR, THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME POCKETS OF DECREASED VISIBILITY TO THE WEST AS
WELL. THE DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY AND MAY IMPACT THOSE COMMUTING. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT RUNS UNTIL 11AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO RISE WITH DIURNAL HEATING THAT WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE
FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
MOST DAYS WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH
WEDNESDAY BEING THE EXCEPTION. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL OHIO TOUCHING THE LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WON'T REACH AS HIGH AS THE
WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATER AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING
IN THE REGION. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RECORD HIGH BEING BROKEN ON
WEDNESDAY AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THOSE
RECORDS. WITH THE INCREASED TEMPERATURES, THE REMAINING SNOW PACK
WILL MELT AND MAY GIVE A MINOR RESPONSE IN STREAMS AND RIVERS THAT
WILL HAVE THEIR ICE DETERIORATING AS WELL. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED ICE JAMS IN PLACES IF THE RESPONSE IS GREAT ENOUGH AND
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK DOWN AROUND
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES PULLING A WARM
FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THAT MORNING. THE LOW WILL STALL OUT
ACROSS WISCONSIN WHICH MAY LIMIT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS, MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AREA WIDE.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS QPF TOTALS OF AROUND 0.10" IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA, AND UP TO AROUND 0.50" IN NE OH AND NW PA. CAN'T
RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO AS THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK CAPE
OF 200-500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE APPROACHING LOW, WINDS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND A STRONG LLJ
MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING AROUND 25-35MPH WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS IN WESTERN OHIO.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. STAYING IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS
RAIN. FOR THE WEEKEND, THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THERE WILL BE CAA BEHIND THE
LOW ON FRIDAY THAT WILL CHANGE OVER ANY LINGERING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR, IT WILL
LIKELY FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR AS WET SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DENSE FOG REMAINS IN PLACE AT FDY/MFD/CAK WITH LOW IFR AT
TOL/YNG. FOG CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CREEPING CLOSE TO
CLE AND EXPECT TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP BACK DOWN TO 1/2 TO 1/4
OF A MILE TOWARDS SUNRISE. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO LIKELY TO FILL
BACK IN THROUGH 14-15Z AT CLE AND LASTING LONGER AT SOME OF THE
EASTERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TODAY TO 12 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME GUSTS TO
20+ KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT ERI TONIGHT. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD TONIGHT WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD
AROUND AND ELEVATED WINDS, DID ADD SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
AT SOUTHERN SITES INCLUDING FDY/MFD/CAK.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY.
NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG ON LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL BE
12 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY, INCREASING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 15-20 KNOTS
TONIGHT. THE NEXT WINDOW OF ELEVATED WINDS COMES ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO 15-25 KNOTS. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. THESE ELEVATED
WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ROT THE ICE WITH ICE FLOES EXPECTED.
SHORE ICE MAY BREAK OFF AND ANY AVAILABLE SHIPPING CHANNELS MAY BE
CLOSED. IT IS IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE TO STAY OFF THE ICE THIS WEEK OR
RISK GETTING STRANDED.
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EXPECT TO SEE
ENHANCED EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM ON THURSDAY NIGHT, VEERING
TO WESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ009>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...10/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...10
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