461
FXUS61 KCLE 271846
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
246 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE DEPARTING EAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
2) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM ERIE, PA SOUTHWEST TO MARION, OH
HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE
OVERALL WEAK ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA, NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THESE
TO TURN SEVERE. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY, AN EXPANSIVE
DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED, BUT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SNOWBELT THAT MAY GET ISOLATED LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN BY SATURDAY. THIS HIGH
WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. IN ADDITION, THIS HIGH WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A MID WEEK SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA,
ULTIMATELY ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID
TO LATE WEEK, BUT GIVEN MODEL VARIATIONS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THIS IS FAIRLY LOW.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT 18Z A VERY NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM NEAR MNN TO JUST
NORTH OF CAK TO NEAR YNG AND CONTINUED INTO NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT CAK OR YNG, MAINLY
THROUGH 20Z BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM BUT PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT ANY TERMINAL. MAIN CONCERN IS A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, CEILINGS WILL BE
PRIMARILY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND
CAN NOT RULE OUT A WINDOW OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY GROUND
FOG AT INLAND TERMINALS. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE CAN
EXPECT SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS TO MOVE IN OFF LAKE ERIE AFTER 06Z.
THIS WILL PROVIDE THE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO
RETURN ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS
OR LESS, BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR, BUT WITH PATCHY NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/MIST EARLY IN THE MORNINGS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OF 5-15 KNOTS ON LAKE ERIE WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING THEN VEER TO NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AT 5-15 KNOTS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHOPPY FRIDAY MORNING WITH WAVES OF
1 TO 3 FEET AND ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS DROP OFF QUICKLY THOUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AND NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A LOW END THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS OVERNIGHT AS THIS
TROUGH CROSSES LAKE ERIE.
GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDS
OF GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 5-15
KNOTS AT TIMES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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