917
FXUS61 KCLE 020845
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
445 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE GENERAL MESSAGING. MONITORING FOR SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL (ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN RISKS)
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDER POTENTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH A MINIMAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
2) CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDER POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND THEN STALLS ON FRIDAY, BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH INTO SATURDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED FRONT AND FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWER AND
STORM POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY ACCOMPANY SOME STORMS.
3) A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH AT LEAST A LOW SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAIN RISK LIKELY ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT, WITH WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AHEAD OF IT.
4) MUCH COOLER AND GENERALLY LOW IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1:
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A BIT OF THUNDER WILL LIFT EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR A SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH
AMOUNT OF RAIN TO RE-AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING. SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING, AND MAY NOT COMPLETELY
UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS A GIVEN LOCATION. IT WILL REMAIN CHILLY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SURGING THIS AFTERNOON ONCE
THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS ERIE, MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST OH, WHICH SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST WARMING THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO CLOSE TO 80. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, IT WILL FEEL WARM AND
HUMID FOR EARLY APRIL. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-77.
THERE WILL BE RENEWED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOOSELY ORGANIZED SHOWERS/STORMS FIRING FROM
EASTERN OH INTO PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, LIKELY ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED FOR A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT
WITH CONVECTION IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS CONVECTION OCCURRING IS LOW-MEDIUM IN SUCH
A WEAKLY FORCED REGIME.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND ORGANIZE WELL TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WHATEVER IS LEFT
OF THE ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DECREASING
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT, THE SURFACE FRONT NOT EVEN APPROACHING TOLEDO
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING, AND GREATER LARGE SCALE FORCING ONLY GRAZING
US (STRONGER FORCING STAYS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST) ALL ARGUE AGAINST
ROBUST CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE SPC DOES GET INTO OUR
NORTHWEST OH COUNTIES WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO
POSSIBLE, THIS SHOULD BE A LOWER-END THREAT FOR OUR AREA AND SHOULD
NOT CARRY WELL EAST OVERNIGHT. IN FACT, CONFIDENCE IN SUBSTANTIAL
RAIN OCCURRING DECREASES EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
MAIN WINDOW FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR NORTHWEST OH COUNTIES
APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE AREA CAN NOT TAKE
MUCH RAIN AT THE MOMENT, AREA-AVERAGE QPF TONIGHT IS UNDER A QUARTER-
INCH WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOCALIZED PEAK AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
UNDER AN INCH. THIS SUGGESTS WE SHOULD NOT RE-NEW FLOODING ISSUES
THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE QUITE MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE #2:
THE COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH INTO AT LEAST
NORTHWEST OH AND OVER LAKE ERIE FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH WILL BE LOSING
MOMENTUM AS LOW-MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
PUSH INTO AND THEN STALL ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON FRIDAY, REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FRIDAY NIGHT AS INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT TRIES TO COUNTERACT A PUSH OF COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTH, AND THEN START LIFTING BACK NORTH BY EARLY SATURDAY.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING FROM EASTERN OH INTO PA FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH A GENERAL MINIMUM IN RAIN POTENTIAL OTHERWISE EXPECTED
FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT IS
DECEPTIVELY TRICKY. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WITH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER NORTH OF THE FRONT. SOME MODELS STALL THE FRONT OVER
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE HEIGHT
RISES THAT WILL BE ONGOING ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER, OTHER MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH BEFORE STALLING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOWARDS ROUTE 30 FRIDAY EVENING. GUT FEELING IS
THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL FARTHER NORTH GIVEN THE HEIGHT RISES, BUT
IF WE DO SEE A GREATER PUSH OF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE THE
HEIGHT RISES MAY NOT MATTER AS THAT WOULD PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH.
WHERE THIS BECOMES CRITICAL IS IN EVALUATING SHOWER AND STORM
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS THAT ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT, SUCH AS THE HRRR/ARW/RRFS, HAVE MORE
LIMITED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL THAT IS FOCUSED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS THAT STALL THE FRONT FARTHER NORTH, SUCH AS THE
NAM/RGEM/ECMWF, ARE MORE GENERALLY AGGRESSIVE/WIDESPREAD WITH SHOWER
AND STORM POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN
WITH WEAK FORCING, AM EXPECTING THE WARM/HUMID AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS
TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO START DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT BECOMES BETTER-
DEFINED AND AS A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. AGAIN
THOUGH, EXACT PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE ARE QUESTION MARKS. THE
ENVIRONMENT (WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 30KT OF DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR) CAN SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL RISK WITH MORE ROBUST
STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, COVERED BY AN SPC MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OUR AREA. INSTABILITY PROFILES
GET SKINNY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING OVER
1.25" (WELL ABOVE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR), SUPPORTING INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES WITHIN ANY
CONVECTION. THE STALLED/TIGHTENING FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACT AS A
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR LOCALIZED
BACK-BUILDING AND TRAINING. SO, IF WE DO END UP SEEING GREATER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION, FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING CAN BECOME A GREATER
CONCERN ON TOP OF SOILS THAT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY SATURATED.
WITH THE SLOWER FRONT, MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 70S
ON FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW-MID 60S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKESHORE MAY BE IN FOR A SUDDEN
TEMPERATURE DROP WHEN/IF THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE OFF THE LAKE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, WITH NOTED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE #3:
A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
DRIVING STRONGER LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. THE APPROACH OF
THIS STRONGER SYSTEM WILL LIFT THE FRONT WELL NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH DIGS IT WILL PUSH A MUCH STRONGER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
WE SHOULD BRIEFLY BREAK INTO A MAINLY DRY WARM SECTOR ON SATURDAY,
AFTER PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY. IT WILL BE WARM AND
BREEZY ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S WITH AN 80
DEGREE READING NOT RULED OUT IF WE SEE ENOUGH DRY TIME/SUN. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BAND OF RAIN/STORMS MOVING IN ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHILE FORCING WILL BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT, SOMEWHAT
MEAGER/SKINNY INSTABILITY PROFILES TO GO ALONG WITH THE STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BEING DISPLACED BEHIND THE FRONT COULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. A NARROW OVERLAP OF MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND SOME
INSTABILITY MAY PLAY OUT NEAR THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
FORCING AND FLOW ALOFT MAXIMIZE OVER OUR AREA. GIVEN THAT, THE SPC
HAS OUTLINED MUCH OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FOR LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT'S WORTH
NOTING THAT GIVEN INCREASING FORCING AT NIGHT, THE SETTING OF THE SUN
WILL NOT MAKE AS LARGE OF A DIFFERENCE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
OVERALL, FEEL THIS IS A LOWER-END THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AS THINGS CURRENTLY STAND. WHILE FORCING INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT WILL KEEP MOVING, WITH AVERAGE QPF VALUES GENERALLY IN THE
0.30-0.70" RANGE (HIGHEST EAST) AND LOCALLY UP TO 1" OR SO POSSIBLE
IN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ON ITS OWN IS NOT THAT
CONCERNING FROM A FLOODING PERSPECTIVE, THOUGH THE RAIN WITH THE
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT COULD WORSEN ANY STILL ONGOING FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE #4:
A PERIOD OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SETTLES IN SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER ON SUNDAY. A RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY DIPPING TO -10C ON TUESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AREA-WIDE, WITH GREATER POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE. MINOR LAKE EFFECT MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
HAS A CHANCE TO REALLY BUILD IN. SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL
LARGELY FALL AS RAIN, THOUGH IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT THAT
SHOWERS CAN HAVE A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE FLAVOR AND PRODUCE SOME
GRAUPEL OR VERY SMALL HAIL (NOT SLEET). LINGERING LAKE EFFECT BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WOULD LIKELY FALL AS MAINLY
SNOW...THOUGH THE COLD AIRMASS IS NOT DEEP OR MOIST ENOUGH FOR A
NOTEWORTHY AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW, MEANING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT
MOST. UNFORTUNATELY, THE POPS OUTSIDE OF AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
ARE TOO LOW TO GET A FORECAST MENTION IN OUR POINT AND CLICK OR ZONE
FORECAST PRODUCTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WE DO NOT
DIRECTLY CONTROL THOSE EXTENDED GRIDS AT THE WFO LEVEL ANYMORE.
HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 40S AND 50S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S...AND LIKELY 20S TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH TOL
HOLDING JUST ABOVE IFR BUT LIKELY TO FALL OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL
TERMINALS WILL SEE LOW IFR CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH WITH CEILINGS OF 200-500 FEET BETWEEN 09-13Z. PATCHY
DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ON GOING AT CLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPANDING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AT FDY OR TOL BEFORE 13Z BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LOWER BUT
EXTEND EAST ACROSS OHIO THROUGH 14Z. AFTER THAT TIME, CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY AS WINDS VEER FROM NORTHEASTERLY
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY BETWEEN 15-18Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
25-30 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP TO SCATTER OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND
VFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT
BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY AT
TOL/FDY/CLE BUT THUNDER MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER AT TERMINALS WHERE WINDS MAY DROP OFF
AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. NON-VFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS WITH
LOW CEILING CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
EXCEPT TOWARDS MAUMEE BAY FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING. AFTER THAT, A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AT 15-20 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS AND WAVES BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS EAST
OF VERMILION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ143>149.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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