079
FXUS61 KCLE 271734
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME MINOR SNOW
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS
FROM THE SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
2) THE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO UNSETTLED FROM MONDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LEADING TO
CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
ANTICIPATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS TO BE
INCONSEQUENTIAL. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
AREAWIDE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE. REMAINING CHILLY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY USHERING IN WARMER CONDITIONS. HIGHS
RISE INTO THE MID 50S ON SUNDAY, ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES WARMER
THAN SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WARMER BUT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF FRONTS AND UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL ENTER ON
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO 70S BY TUESDAY BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT. COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE MAINLY MVFR DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS, THOUGH THERE ARE POCKETS OF VFR FORMING ACROSS NE OH
AND NW PA. EXPECTED CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT/RISE TO
VFR THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT BRINGING IN WIDESPREAD CEILINGS GENERALLY
STAYING VFR. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, IMPACTING MOST TERMINALS THAT COULD BRING VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS DOWN TO NON-VFR. OMITTED KFDY AND KMFD FROM THE
SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE FEATURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND CEILINGS WILL RISE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WINDS CURRENTLY ARE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
BACK TO BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS THEN BECOME WESTERLY
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE STARTING ON MONDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT 10-15 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. WAVES ARE DIMINISHING AS WELL AS A RESPONSE AND WILL
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 3 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5-10 KNOTS. THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS SATURDAY MORNING AS
A WEAK FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FEATURE, WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 10-
15 KNOTS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. BY
TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE WESTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE LAKE AND BE 10-20 KNOTS FOR THE EASTERN THIRD. WITH
THE OFFSHORE FLOW, WAVES WILL GENERALLY STAY AROUND 2-4 FEET WITH
SOME HIGHER WAVES NEAR 6 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE OPEN WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ144>147.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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