324
FXUS61 KCLE 200554
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
154 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNT GILEAD TO
CANTON TO YOUNGSTOWN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOSER
TO CENTRAL OHIO.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KNOTS CROSSING LAKE ERIE. MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW ON FRIDAY, EXCEEDING 3K FEET DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL YIELD WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH. DESPITE GOOD
COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 60S IN NW OHIO TO
MID 50S IN NW PENNSYLVANIA. LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE DRY IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING THE MORNING WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHEAST FIRST, THEN ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S BUT THERE IS A WINDOW OF TIME WHERE
INSTABILITY REACHES 200-400 J/KG. THERE WILL BE 45-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR
AVAILABLE SO IF A THUNDERSTORMS DOES DEVELOP WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
INTENSITY, BUT STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE OUT
OF OUR AREA. THIS IS THE LOCATION THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS PLACED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE
WHERE THE MARINE AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE. SKIES WILL
ALSO BE CLEARING WITH LIGHT WINDS MAKING FOR A PLEASANT DAY.
KEY MESSAGE #2...
A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT EXPANDS EAST INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE AREA LOCATED IN
THE WARM SECTOR ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOTS ALOFT, RESULTING IN WINDS
GUSTING TO AT LEAST 30-35 MPH. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING
HEIGHTS, WE COULD SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES
AT 925MB WARM TO 18-21C AND HIGHS LOOK TO REACH 65-75 DEGREES. THE
MORNING WILL BE DRY WITH RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL MOISTURE STARTS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PULLS A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE A LIMITING
FACTOR AND SOUNDINGS LOOK TO REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING AS
ITS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BY NEARLY 20 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY WITH POTENTIALLY A
BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z TODAY. SHRA AND ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM MFD-CLE AND EAST, BUT ONLY CARRYING SHRA
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW, AND THUNDER WOULD BE AN OCCURRENCE AFTER
THE 18Z TIME FRAME. PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT LLWS TO RAMP
UP AFTER 09Z THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP WHILE A
SURFACE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE. LLWS ENDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES AND WIND GUSTS BECOME EVIDENT IN THE OBSERVATIONS. WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WNW 20-30KTS BEFORE BECOMING
NORTHERLY AND DECREASING BELOW 10KTS AFTER 03Z SATURDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALSO
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO EITHER LOW END MVFR OF POSSIBLY EVEN IFR
AT A FEW LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS ON
SUNDAY.
MARINE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE EASTERN BASIN AT SOME POINT FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VERY BRIEF IF THEY OCCUR SO
OPTED AGAINST ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH TO 6 TO 12 KNOTS FRIDAY
EVENING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOPING FOR SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WINDS/WAVES
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...26
MARINE...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page