837
FXUS61 KCLE 071755
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1255 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY PUSHING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
CLIPPER AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE MAIN WEATHER MESSAGE...
-LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY,
PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
-MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS MAYBE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
-A FEW LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE SNOWBELT.
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CORNBELT OF THE
MIDWEST AND TRACKING IN OUR DIRECTION FOR LATER TODAY. WHILE IT
MAY APPEAR A LITTLE MORE OMINOUS ON THE REGIONAL RADARS THIS
MORNING, THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER OUR
AREA TODAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, THERE IS A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB THIS MORNING. THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION AND SOME
PATCHY FOG OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING. THERE IS
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
MIST THIS MORNING BEFORE THE LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES. BUT DO TO LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER COMING
THROUGH TODAY WILL BE LIMITED. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER OUR AREA
TODAY. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING, A
DUSTING TO AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 TODAY.
AS THIS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LATE TODAY, IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH AS WELL.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH BY THIS EVENING.
A PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ALSO FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING WITH 850 MB FALLING DOWN TO AROUND -14C.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND
INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE SNOWBELT REGION. ANOTHER 1 INCH OF
LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S TODAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE
TEENS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT.
MONDAY WILL BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
PEAKS OF SUN. IT WILL BE COLD MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL
ARRIVE WITH THE TUESDAY CLIPPER SYSTEM, STARTING AS LIGHT SNOW
BUT MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT RAIN LATER IN THE DAY AS
MILDER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ON TUESDAY WILL BE FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE LAKESHORE AND
AREAS OF NEOH AND NWPA. SOME MINOR LIGHT SNOWFALL UP TO 1 INCH
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO
RAIN BY TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S.
THE PARADE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WE WILL BE ON THE MILDER SIDE INITIALLY FOR THE
WEDNESDAY CLIPPER. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY 15 TO 25 MPH, GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE LATE WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL SPILL
OVER LAKE ERIE WITH A FLARE UP LAKE ENHANCED AND OR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SNOWBELT. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A VERY UNSETTLED, WINTRY AND
COLD WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IT'S GRIP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
PARADE OF FAST MOVING CLIPPERS AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER THEME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER
CLIPPER MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND
ANOTHER ONE OVER THE WEEKEND. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SNOW. A DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING A DECENT SETUP OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FOR BOTH THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOWBELT. STAY
TUNED!
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS IMPACTING NORTHWEST OHIO AND POINTS
EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR LAKE ERIE AND INTO NORTHWEST PA AS OF 18Z.
DUE TO SMALL FLAKE SIZE, THIS OTHERWISE VERY LIGHT SNOW IS
EFFECTIVELY REDUCING VSBY TO IFR, WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ALSO OBSERVED UNDER THE SNOW. CONDITIONS ARE IN A HIGHER MVFR TO
VFR RANGE FARTHER SOUTHEAST AT MFD, CAK, AND YNG WHERE IT IS
NOT YET SNOWING, AND QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR
BEHIND THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IN MI. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOWER
VSBY (LIKELY IFR) AND CEILINGS (IFR TO LOW MVFR) TO SWEEP EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CLE, CAK, AND YNG OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MEANWHILE, EXPECT TOL AND FDY TO BEGIN IMPROVING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, WITH IMPROVEMENT CONTINUING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 0Z
AS THE SNOW DISSIPATES/EXITS. AM EXPECTING LIMITED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO FLOW SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OFF OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY, PROBABLY JUST SOME FLURRIES BUT COULD LOCALLY MAINTAIN
SOME MVFR CEILINGS. ALL WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING TO VFR ON MONDAY
AS LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AT
7-13 KNOTS THIS EVENING, WITH SOME 20KT GUSTS NEAR THE LAKE.
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 5-10KT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH SNOW ON TUESDAY WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN
WILL TRANSITION BACK OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, EVENTUALLY
PASSING TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM POWERS THROUGH,
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS AND ALLOW FOR WAVES TO
BUILD TO THE 4 TO 5 FT RANGE. THEREFORE, WILL GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A VERY BRIEF
REPRIEVE IN WINDS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION.
ONCE THIS FEATURE PUSHES EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT, STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GREAT
LAKES FOR TUESDAY. THIS TUESDAY SYSTEM HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT IN
BEING A QUICK-HITTING LOW THROUGH THE REGION WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING OVER THE LAKE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SHOULD
LIKELY TRANSLATE TO GALE FORCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND HAVE
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. FOR WEDNESDAY, A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE REGION AND THE STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 40 TO 45 KT SUSTAINED
WINDS ON THE LAKE. WAVES DURING THIS PERIOD MAY REACH 15 FT OR MORE
WITH THIS SETUP. WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW, LOW WATER LEVELS IN
THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE WILL BE A CONCERN AND LOW WATER
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
ONSHORE AND WEAKEN. ELEVATED WAVES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND
MARINE HEADLINES WOULD PERSIST TO AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ144>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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