252
FXUS61 KCLE 012352
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AND THEN DEPART TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 18Z, THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NEAR FINDLAY TO NEAR
SANDUSKY. AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA,
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, THOUGH BRIEF, HEAVY RAIN
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS TO
30-40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THERE IS DECENT AMOUNT OF MUCAPE IN
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE, THOUGH SHEAR IS POOR AND HODOGRAPH
PROFILES ACTUALLY HAS NEGATIVE SRH (NOT GOOD FOR SEVERE STORMS).
A WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED IN THE SANDUSKY BAY, LIKELY DUE TO
THE DEVELOPING STORM INTERACTING WITH THE LAKE/LAND INTERFACE. A
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING WAS ISSUED, AS WELL AS A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR LANDSPOUT-TYPE FUNNELS TO
OCCUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH, IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, HIGHS IN THE 80S, LOWS IN
THE 60S, AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A WEAK, COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY,
WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY BEFORE SUNSET (SO
UNLIKELY TO SPOIL ANY FIREWORK SHOWS). THURSDAY COULD BE A SNEAKY,
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, AS A DECENT OVERLAP OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AND MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS PRESENT.
MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE FROM ENS/GEFS BOTH MARGINALLY SUPPORT A
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BECOME
FURTHER ENTRENCHED TO THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH
CONTINUED NICE SUMMER WEATHER. A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 90S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE, BUT HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
UNDER 100. UNLESS THERE ARE BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, IT'S
UNLIKELY WE'LL NEED A HEAT ADVISORY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISE TO
THE 30-50% RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITHIN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KCAK WILL DEPART OVER
THE NEXT HOUR AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION. THAT
WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
WILL PREVAIL, WITH JUST FEW TO SCT AFTERNOON CUMULUS. THE
EXCEPTION IS PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL AROUND KCAK AND KYNG TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO KEPT VISIBILITIES MVFR IN THE 07-12Z
TIMEFRAME, BUT PERIODS OF LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE.
W TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. NON-VFR MAY RETURN IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA.
MARINE
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE OVERALL FLOW REMAINING RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD USHER IN WAVES OF 2 FEET AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED POCKETS UP TO 3 FEET.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SAUNDERS
NEAR TERM...SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...KAHN
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