293
FXUS61 KCLE 231535
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1035 AM EST THU JAN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY BEFORE
MOVING EAST SATURDAY TO ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
SNOW FILLED IN THIS MORNING ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.
LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS STILL IN NE OHIO. IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TODAY FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR
SO MAINLY HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING EAST BUT A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR SAGINAW MICHIGAN TO
SOUTH BEND INDIANA AND WILL BE THE DRIVING FEATURE BEHIND A
MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY BURST OF SNOW CROSSING THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. RAMPED UP POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE AS MOST PEOPLE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SNOW BETWEEN 4 PM
AND 10 PM.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MORE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER, ALBEIT STILL A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY.
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM (OR A VARIATION OF A CLIPPER) IS
APPROACHING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE THE SURFACE LOW IS MOVING BETWEEN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ALREADY
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WHERE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION PRODUCED A BAND
OF SNOW. THIS PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING TO 0.5 INCHES LEADING TO
SOME SURFACES QUICKLY BECOMING SLICK DUE TO THE COLD THE PAST
FEW DAYS. THE DRY SLOT HAS CURRENTLY MOVED INTO THE REGION, AND
THIS LULL WILL LAST THROUGH SUNRISE.
AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY, THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
ESE, REACHING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SNOW TO FILL BACK IN FROM
WEST TO EAST FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE BEST FORCING BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT, AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE FAIRLY
MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE SNOW LIGHT, BUT A 150-160
KNOT H3 JET OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE BASE OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH AND SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INCREASED POPS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE IT WILL SNOW LIGHTLY EVERYWHERE
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD
SURFACES AND DRY SNOW RATIOS BETWEEN 17:1 AND 20:1 WILL LEAD TO
SOME QUICK ACCUMULATION ONCE AGAIN, SO HAVE 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF SNOW AREAWIDE TODAY.
THE MORE INTERESTING PART WILL BE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES LAKE ERIE. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND EQL'S BRIEFLY RISING TO 8-10 THOUSAND FEET AS THE
COLD ADVECTION DEEPENS (850 MB TEMPS COOLING TO -15 TO -17 C)
COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT AND IMPROVED MOISTURE INTO THE DGZ
WILL SUPPORT A LAKE ENHANCED BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.
HREF GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING SUCH A BAND, AND IN ADDITION TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED PARAMETERS, NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
INSTABILITY DEEPENING TO 250-300 J/KG (CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY).
THIS IS PLENTY FOR A GOOD BURST OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT, SO HAVE
A PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS FROM NORTH CENTRAL OHIO EAST
THROUGH NW PA THIS EVENING. THE BEST TIMING ESTIMATE IS ABOUT
21-23Z FOR LAKESHORE AREAS BEFORE DROPPING SE TO A KYNG TO KCAK
LINE BY 03Z. THIS BAND COULD PRODUCE BRIEF SNOWFALL RATES UP TO
1 INCH PER HOUR, GUSTY WINDS, AND POOR VISIBILITY.
W TO WNW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW TO LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH NW PA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS QUICKLY DRYING OUT WITH A LOWERING
INVERSION LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH BACKING
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY GROWING ICE COVER WILL KEEP
THE LAKE-EFFECT LIGHT AND FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AS IT GRADUALLY
RETREATS INTO WESTERN NY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO ONLY EXPECT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO.
GIVEN THE LIGHT SNOW TODAY, QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH
THE FRONT THIS EVENING, AND LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, SLIGHTLY INCREASED OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 3
INCHES FROM THE EAST SUBURBS OF CLEVELAND THROUGH NW PA, WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. HELD OFF ON
ADVISORIES FOR NOW, BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED IF AMOUNTS
CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 20S TODAY, SO IT WILL FEEL MUCH
WARMER AFTER THE BITTER COLD OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE 8 TO 12 F RANGE, WITH COLDER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST CONUS
AND EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL HAVE MOVE NORTH OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW HAS SHIFTED
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF POPS
SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BE MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE 30S THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL STILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL IN THE HIGH TEENS TO LOW
20S. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT THE COLDEST AT AROUND ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ON MONDAY, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE SNOWBELT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL BE
SUPPORTING THE LAKE EFFECT TO START NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE NEXT NEXT WEEK INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING, STARTING AROUND 13Z AT KTOL AND KFDY AND BETWEEN
15 AND 17Z AT KCLE AND KMFD. THE SNOW WILL REACH KCAK AND KYNG
BY 18Z AND KERI BY 19Z. ONCE THE SNOW ARRIVES, CIGS AND VIS WILL
DROP TO MVFR, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY
BECOME A LITTLE HEAVIER FROM KCLE POINTS EAST, SO BROUGHT IN
TEMPO GROUPS FOR 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES THERE, WHERE LIFR IS MORE
LIKELY FOR A SHORT WINDOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIDESPREAD
SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY MID EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, BUT W WINDS WILL MAINLY BRING THESE INTO KERI, SO
HAVE THE OTHER SITES DRYING OUT WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO
LOW END VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR. THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL
FINALLY MOVE OUT OF KERI BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR VFR
THERE AS WELL.
SW WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO W THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY AT KERI. W WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO 5-10
KNOTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
THE ICE ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS OF
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS MORNING AT 1000 AM. ICE COVERAGE HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION AND
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING, MODERATE ICE GROWTH
SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WITH THE STRONGER WINDS AT 15-20
KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY, ICE COULD SHIFT AND COULD CLOSE
SHIPPING CHANNELS ON LAKE ERIE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS
ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING AND DECREASING TO 10-
15 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS OUT OF
THE WEST ON MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE HAS BEEN SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RIPLEY NY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE ICE COVER.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...KEC/GARUCKAS
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM...KENNEDY
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...KENNEDY
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