326
FXUS61 KCLE 202045
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
345 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2019
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING A
WINTRY MIX AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NE OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON BEING OBSERVED. THIS BAND HAS SHIFTED
UP THE LAKE AND IS NOW ORIENTED ACROSS EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY
ACROSS WESTERN GEAUGA COUNTY INTO PORTAGE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST WEST OF THIS MAIN BAND. THE
MAIN BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN PRODUCING AN INCH OF SNOW IN UNDER 20
MINUTES AS IT WOBBLES ACROSS THE AREA. MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH A LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNT IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT AND
OVER NW PA SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCH RANGE. THE MAIN REASON TO KEEP THE WINTER
STORM WARNING GOING IS THE GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND PRODUCE DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ACROSS THE WEST AND
POTENTIAL PORTIONS OF NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT BELIEVE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO
15 MPH RANGE SO WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD DIP BELOW -10. NW OHIO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL BE THE COLDEST AREAS WITH WIND
CHILLS AROUND -20. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR A
POTENTIAL WIND CHILL WARNING.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW
THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACROSS NE OH INTO
NW PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -5 TO 5 DEGREES. EASTERLY
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE ON TUESDAY SO WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR A SHORT PERIOD WHERE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
DIP BELOW -10.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BY TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVING AWAY
FROM THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TO AVERAGE LEVELS. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REACH IF NOT BARELY OVER THE FREEZING MARK BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID WEEK
SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND DIG ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.
WE WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM FOR MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT. WE
MIGHT HAVE TO MONITOR SOME FOG POTENTIAL AS MILDER AND MOIST AIR
MOVES OVER OUR SNOW PACK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE
MAY SEE A LIGHT WINTRY WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP MOVING END TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME ON HOW
MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THE FREEZING LINE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING
THE NIGHT. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AND COLD RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB TO THE 40S BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OR MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND AS TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN
FROM WEST TO EAST, WE WILL SEE THE RAIN CHANGE BACK TO LIGHT SNOW.
WE MAY END UP SEEING AROUND AN INCH OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE
BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE MAIN CONCERN TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRAVEL UP THE
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. IF THIS OCCURS, OUR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS MAY HAVE A ANOTHER WAVE OR SNOW MOVING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS BETWEEN A 10% TO
30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING A .25 OF AN INCH OF LIQUID FOR SNOWFALL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF
SYNOPTIC SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MACHINES WILL BE TURNED BACK ON LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR
ALL THE SNOWBELT AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW AVERAGE. MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR THE SNOWBELT
AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AREA OCCURRING ACROSS THE WEST WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE
OH, MAINLY IMPACTING KCLE AND KCAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRY TO LIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING BUT
IT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. ALL LOCATIONS WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH
VFR LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 20 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT
THEN SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL
BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE, STRONGEST NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO. NON-VFR POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
WE HAVE CONCERNS CONTINUING FROM THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE
MONDAY. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MONDAY EVENING. WE
HAVE ISSUED AN ICE ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE ARE FORECASTING A RAPID INCREASE OF
LAKE ICE ESPECIALLY WHEN THE WINDS RELAX AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
MOVES OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. WE ALSO HAVE A
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RETURN ON THE LAKE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WINDS SHIFT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT TO WESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY IF NOT POSSIBLE GALES
AGAIN.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ010>014-
020>023-089.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
LEZ142>149-162>169.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...GRIFFIN
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...GRIFFIN
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