313
FXUS61 KCLE 051915
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
315 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ERIE COUNTY, PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT A MORE CLEAR TRANSITION TO SNOW
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED IN NE OH AND NW PA.
2) THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL BE OVERCAST AND COOL THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT MAY RIPPLE THROUGH
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A WINDOW OF DRY
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S WITH SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND ELEVATED
WINDS WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S. FOR MONDAY, AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH BROADER LIFT ALOFT, COLD ADVECTION OVER A
WARMING LAKE ERIE, AND UPSLOPE COMPONENTS IN THE HILLS OF NE OH
AND PA, EXPECTING RAIN TO PERSIST, EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW IN THIS REGION. HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN POPS HIGHER THAN
THE NBM WITH A BROAD AREA OF 50%+. NOT UNREASONABLE TO SEE A
COUPLE TENTHS OF QPF IN THIS REGION AND HAVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. CONTINUING A GENERAL THEME OF 1-3" BUT SOME LOCATIONS
IN ERIE COUNTY, PA MAY TRY TO OVERACHIEVE IF SNOW SHOWERS CAN
PERSIST. GIVEN RECENT WARMTH AND DECREASING NIGHTTIME HOURS,
SURFACE/PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO FALL BEFORE
ACCUMULATIONS START BECOMING IMPACTFUL AND THE FIRST HALF INCH
TO INCH OF SNOW MAY MELT OFF. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS ON TUESDAY, DRYING OUT THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST FOR WEDNESDAY, KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE BUT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO
THE 50S. THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES A SLOWING TREND AND THURSDAY
IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ENTER FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT AREAWIDE CHANCE OF RAIN.
THERE COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK,
BUT THERE IS STILL TIME TO SORT OUT SOME OF THOSE DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS
REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR (~3.5KFT). CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY SCATTER
OUT LATER THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT YNG/ERI WHERE VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AS LOW AS IFR AT ERI MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH PRIMARILY VFR VSBYS.
REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, 12 TO 18
KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST LATE MONDAY
MORNING, 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN
RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SNOWBELT.
NON-VFR MAY RETURN IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
MARINE
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO THIS
EVENING WITH WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES 4 TO 6 FEET.
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WINDS
DIMINISH, THOUGH ROUGH CONDITIONS MAY RETURN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW OF 20 KNOTS ARRIVES ACROSS THE LAKE.
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A
LONGER STRETCH OF QUIETER MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN
ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, 15 TO 25 KNOTS, THOUGH
ODDS OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS LOCATED IN THE OPEN WATERS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>149.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
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