194  
FXUS61 KCLE 181303  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
903 AM EDT MON OCT 18 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN A SLOW  
WARMING TREND. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL  
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND  
ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO BE MOVE LOCALIZED TO NW PA, REFLECTING  
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST  
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS LATER  
TODAY. SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW  
PA THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION  
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL AND DRY LOW AND MID-LEVEL AIR ARRIVE.  
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TODAY ACROSS THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, RESULTING IN BELOW-AVERAGE HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ACROSS NW OH,  
PLENTIFUL SUN SHOULD RAISE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 70.  
 
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER LIGHT WINDS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ONE MORE WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM  
ARRIVES MIDWEEK. UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW TANDEM WILL MOVE FAIRLY  
QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.  
STRONGER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN  
ONTARIO INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH  
THE FRONT, BUT THIS WILL SIGNIFY A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE  
AIRMASSES HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO WILL SPRAWL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS THE  
CLOSED UPPER LOW PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  
EXPECTING MORE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
PROBABLY IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD FIRMLY PLANT  
THE REGION IN BELOW ZERO 850MB AIR FOR PROBABLY THE FIRST TIME THIS  
FALL. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PRAIRIES  
OF CANADA/NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES FROM THE  
SHORT TERM INTO THE LONG TERM PERIODS, LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE  
LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET THUS FAR. BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE  
GIVES US OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD 30S AWAY FROM THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT,  
AND OUR FIRST POTENTIAL AT SOME FROST IF WINDS GO CALM AND SKIES  
CLEAR AT NIGHT. TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPECIFICS  
OVERALL, BUT IT SHOULD DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE FALL NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH VFR TO  
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LINGERING, LAKE EFFECT  
CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY ONLY AFFECT ERI TODAY, BUT NOT  
ANTICIPATING ANY PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS.  
 
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT THIS MORNING, 5 KNOTS OR LESS. THE  
EXCEPTION IS AT ERI WHERE NORTHWEST GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS CONTINUE.  
LATER TODAY, NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS  
THE EASTERN TAF SITES WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT  
CAK/YNG/CLE/ERI THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE BY TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY. NON-VFR LIKELY IN LOWER CEILINGS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS GRADUALLY EASING ACROSS LAKE ERIE, WEST TO EAST, AND THE WAVE  
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW SUIT THROUGH THE MONDAY TIME FRAME. KEEPING  
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING LORAIN EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID  
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS TURN WSW TONIGHT, WITH AN INCREASE IN  
VELOCITY REEMERGING TUESDAY, BUT SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.  
EXPECT THOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW  
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT/THURSDAY. DETERIORATING LAKE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED  
BEHIND WHAT WILL BE 2 OR POSSIBLY THREE COLD FRONTS FOR THE END OF  
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHILLIER AIRMASS ARRIVING AND  
NORTHERLY DOMINATED WINDS.  
 
WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE BASIN THROUGH  
LATE MORNING, BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE THE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA  
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EVENTUALLY EXITING, THUS DIMINISHING THE  
THREAT LATER TODAY.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
LEZ145>149.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KAHN  
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL/KAHN  
SHORT TERM...26  
LONG TERM...26  
AVIATION...KAHN  
MARINE...26  
 
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