145
FXUS61 KCLE 230606
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
106 AM EST MON DEC 23 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THIS
LOW WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY BEFORE
EXTENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN ON TUESDAY BEFORE IT DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST,
WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE AREA REMAINS DRY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST OHIO. WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALONG AND WEST OF I-71.
DRY WEATHER COMES TO AN END MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE GLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW WILL LIFT A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO. HREF MODEL SOUNDINGS AT
KTOL INDICATE A FEW HOURS OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN GIVEN THE SHORT WINDOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW CROSSES LAKE ERIE AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT DIVES
SOUTH. OVERALL, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
RANGING BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE AT ALL LOCATIONS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS IN WESTERN LOCATIONS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST MOISTURE AND
RESULTING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/CHANCES SO HAVE OPTED FOR BROAD
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE (~20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR THE TIME BEING. POPS
SHOULD TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WITH LOW 40S POSSIBLE FROM
ROUGHLY MARION TO FINDLAY, OH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WARM FURTHER WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW TO MID 30S LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING, BUT RAIN CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKING
EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND RESULTING RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND PEAK ON SUNDAY. HAVE BROAD CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF RAIN IS LOW.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HIGHS IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY WILL MOST LIKELY GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. BEYOND THAT TIME PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN BEGINS AT TOL AT 20Z AND CLE TOWARDS
00Z. AS PRECIPITATION REACHES NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA, THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A REGION WHERE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE WITH ALL SNOW MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER
EAST YOU GO. INTRODUCED RAIN CHANGING OVER TO A WET SNOW AT CLE
BUT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. ALSO
ALLOWED FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW AT CAK/YNG WHILE ERI LOOKS TO
BE FAR ENOUGH IN THE COLDER AIR TO BE PRIMARILY SNOW. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LITTLE SLEET BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY ON MONDAY AS THE WIND FIELD ALOFT
INCREASES BUT WITH AN INVERSION LIMITING MIXING DEPTHS. HAVE
MOST SITES SEEING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING BY
16Z AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. WHERE WINDS ARE NOT
GUSTING, INCLUDED A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER IN THE
TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS AS WINDS NEAR 2K FEET INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-45 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IS LIKELY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. NON-VFR IS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE OPEN WATERS UNTIL FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BY THAT TIME,
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING AND WAVES WILL BE SUBSIDING SO THE WINDOW
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE NARROW. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...IVERSON
NEAR TERM...IVERSON/SAUNDERS
SHORT TERM...MAINES
LONG TERM...MAINES
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...MAINES
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