723
FXUS61 KCLE 010533
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
133 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1:33 AM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS VALID PER LATEST TRENDS IN OBS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE. NO CHANGES APPEARED NECESSARY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS OVER NE OH/NW PA WILL SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES BY
LATE TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IN ADDITION TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING DUE TO CLEARING WILL RESULT IN CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF INTERIOR NW PA (AND POSSIBLY NE OH IF RADIATIONAL COOLING ENDS UP BEING
MORE EFFICIENT THAN EXPECTED). WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE OVERALL
RISK OF FROST IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO IMPROVE
BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE, HOWEVER LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NW PA MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT'S LOWS
WILL BE IN 40S WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE
OF LAKE ERIE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD ALLOWING FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AS
THEY RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. MUCH WARMER BY TUESDAY WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AREAWIDE. THE WARMEST
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR IN NORTHWEST OHIO AS THEY RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY
NIGHT WITH MID 60S ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ENTER THE
REGION ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AND WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
COLD FRONT STALLS JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY SWEEPING EAST ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT, WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
GULF, AND PWATS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JUNE, THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE NEXT WEEK.
REMAINING WARM ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AREAWIDE. GRADUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S BEFORE LOWS SETTLE NEAR 60 DEGREES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/MON. SIMULTANEOUSLY,
CYCLONIC NW'ERLY TO NNW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED/SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR REGION. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE
PRECEDED BY PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL INTERACT WITH SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
AXES THAT WILL SWEEP GENERALLY SE'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES ALOFT. OUR
REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE PRIOR TO
~13Z/SUN AND AFTER ~00Z/MON. OTHERWISE, NW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...FAIR WEATHER AND VFR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM AVON POINT TO RIPLEY NY
THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM ALONG THE LAKESHORE
FROM CUYAHOGA COUNTY OH TO ERIE COUNTY PA. A TROUGH LINGERING OVER
THE LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER, GIVEN ONSHORE COMPONENT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3
TO 6 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...04/JASZKA/15
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...13
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