807  
FXUS61 KCLE 150200  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
1000 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY  
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. BEHIND  
THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA  
THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER NORTHWEST OHIO  
WITH THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION LINGERING FROM HANCOCK TO  
MARION COUNTIES. A LIMITED FLOOD THREAT REMAINS FOR THESE  
COUNTIES AS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN, BUT DRY  
SOIL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF ABSORPTION OF THIS RAIN  
AND ANY FLOODING WILL BE MINOR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL  
CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE  
STABILIZES AND PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATES.  
LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S,  
ALTHOUGH NW OHIO MAY CONTINUE TO DIP LOWER IN THE 60S WITH THE  
RAIN-COOLED ATMOSPHERE.  
 
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY HAS CHANGED A BIT FOR THE FORECAST  
AREA. THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN A WEAK LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY  
AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN  
INDIANA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE AREA ON SATURDAY  
MORNING AND MOVE THE OHIO VALLEY LOW NORTHEAST, BRINGING A  
MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES  
WITH THIS COMPLEX WILL BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LIKE CANTON  
AND YOUNGSTOWN, BUT RECENT TRENDS ARE THAT MOST OF THE  
PRECIPITATION WILL MISS THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. TO THE WEST,  
A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND BE THE FOCUS FOR  
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY SPILL INTO  
NW OHIO AND HAVE SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR THE I-75 CORRIDOR.  
AS FOR THE REGION IN BETWEEN, TOUGH TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE ANY  
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AS THE OVERALL FORCING AND UPPER  
LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS MINIMAL. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW  
AS A SPURIOUS SHOWER MAY ATTEMPT TO ENTER BUT TRENDS SEEM DRIER  
FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SEEM  
APPROPRIATE FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW WILL  
DEPART AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY  
NIGHT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL FIZZLE OUT IN THE WEST AS A  
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY ON  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ON SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT  
SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS OUR CWA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW  
STRONGER STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE  
AMIDST WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND  
SHEAR. UNFAVORABLY-HIGH WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT THE  
OCCURRENCE OF SEVERE HAIL, WHILE FAIRLY ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER,  
LIMITED DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, AND LIMITED DCAPE  
SHOULD CURB THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 70'S TO LOWER 80'S.  
 
CYCLONIC WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL  
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY  
NIGHT AS AN EASTWARD-MOVING LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER  
EASTERN CANADA, THE GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST U.S. LINGERING  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FIRST FRONT SHOULD EXIT OUR CWA  
TO THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT, THE AIR MASS MAY  
BECOME COLD ENOUGH OVER LAKE ERIE FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER  
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE  
UPPER 50'S TO MID 60'S. ON MONDAY, A SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT  
SHOULD SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR CWA AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH  
THE MID 70'S TO LOWER 80'S ONCE AGAIN. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED  
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE  
UPPER MIDWEST. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50'S TO MID 60'S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AT THIS POINT, ODDS FAVOR FAIR WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY  
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES VERY SLOWLY  
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND FAR-EASTERN CANADA. SIMULTANEOUSLY, HIGH  
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BUILD OVER OUR AREA. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE FROM THE 70'S ON TUESDAY TO THE UPPER  
70'S TO MID 80'S ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50'S OR 60'S ARE  
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON SINCE HIGH PRESSURE MAY  
BEGIN EXITING OUR CWA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE  
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY REACH THE LOW TO MID  
80'S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE EARLY CONCERNS FOR THE TAFS ARE IN NW OHIO AS SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. SOME NON-VFR IS  
STILL PLAUSIBLE AT KFDY WITH THE BETTER THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THAT  
TERMINAL. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL HOURS AND HAVE DRIED OUT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE  
OVERNIGHT. SOME NON-VFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KTOL AND KFDY FROM  
THE LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THIS EVENING'S CONVECTION. TOUGH TO  
SAY HOW MUCH CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO AND HAVE MVFR  
MENTIONED, BUT IFR IS ALSO PLAUSIBLE IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN CLEAR  
OUT QUICKLY ENOUGH. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF  
THE TERMINALS ON SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE  
AROUND KCAK AND KYNG AND HAVE KEPT BRIEF WINDOWS OF VICINITY  
SHOWERS FOR THESE TERMINALS. ELSEWHERE, RAIN IS MUCH MORE  
CONDITIONAL AND HAVE OMITTED FROM THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE  
EASTERLY TONIGHT BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A LOW TO THE  
SOUTHEAST AND A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR  
SUNDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NORTHEASTLY WINDS OF ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO 25  
KNOTS, PERSIST OVER LAKE ERIE INTO THIS EVENING. WAVES AS LARGE  
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND  
RIPLEY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT  
SATURDAY FROM RENO BEACH TO RIPLEY. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, 2 TO  
4 FOOT WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 3 FEET AS EASTERLY WINDS  
EASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  
 
EASTERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS ON SATURDAY VEER TO SOUTHERLY  
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS LAKE  
ERIE ON SUNDAY, CAUSING 5 TO 15 KNOT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY  
TO WESTERLY. WINDS TREND WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO  
NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY WITH THE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST PASSAGE OF A  
SECOND COLD FRONT. SIMULTANEOUSLY, WIND SPEEDS REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15  
KNOT RANGE. NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10  
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS FROM THE WEST. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD. WAVES  
SHOULD BE NO LARGER THAN 1 TO 3 FEET.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ007-  
009>012-089.  
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ001.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ143>149.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KAHN  
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC  
SHORT TERM...JASZKA  
LONG TERM...JASZKA  
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC  
MARINE...JASZKA  
 
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