907
FXUS61 KCLE 121151
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
751 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS ROBUST LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
EAST.
2) ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1:
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG LLJ WITH
WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS WILL SURGE OVER THE AREA WITH A PUSH OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE JET IS EXPECTED TO
ONLY MOVE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH A 'WEAKER'
JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS IMPACTING THE EASTERN PORTION. STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MIXING LEVEL ALMOST TO 850MB
SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE.
MANY HI-RES MODELS HAVE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58MPH (50KTS)
ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER GUSTS IN THE 45 TO
50 MPH ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO BRINGING THE STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE,
LOCAL DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LAKESHORE
AREA ACROSS NWPA. IN ADDITION, OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE MINIMAL AND SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, BUT WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR, EXPECT ADDITIONAL
MIXING TO BRING STRONG GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. MORAL OF THE STORY
IS THAT IT IS GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY ON FRIDAY.
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS HAZARD, A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. EXPECT THIS HEADLINE TO BE UPGRADED TO A
ADVISORY AND/OR WARNING IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE #2:
THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH RAIN AND SNOW) AND
A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA ON FRIDAY (SEE KEY MESSAGE #1) WHICH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. INITIAL SHOWERS SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY SNOW FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
BY FRIDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIGGER PRODUCER OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INITIALLY ON SUNDAY, A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH, USHERING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THESE
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST. THE CURRENT STORM TOTAL QPF FOR THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM IS
GENERALLY 0.6 TO 1 INCH WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS, BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT LOWER LEVELS
IN RIVERS NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CONVECTION
POTENTIAL AS WELL GIVEN THE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY THUNDER MENTION AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING, THOUGH MVFR
CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT ERI THROUGH THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
IMPACT ERI, SO HAVE INTRODUCED A VCSH GROUP IN THIS UPDATE.
APART FROM ERI, CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AT VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 10KFT, THEN AROUND
5KFT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD PERIOD WILL BE
INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE BEGUN TO INTRODUCE
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS
THROUGH 11Z FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT MORE ADDITIONS
OF 40+ KNOT WIND GUSTS BY THE NEXT PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY WITH STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40
KNOTS EXPECTED. NON-VFR LIKELY TO RETURN IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NON-VFR MAY LINGER IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
MARINE
THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING WITH THIS
PACKAGE, IN ADDITION TO THE ISSUANCE OF A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR
THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE. A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, USHERING IN SOUTHWEST,
THEN WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS
ACROSS THE LAKE. IN ADDITION, WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERN
BASIN COULD FALL 1 TO 2 FEET BELOW LOW WATER DATUM. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TOWARDS THE NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEKEND (SUNDAY INTO MONDAY) WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE FOR SOUTHWEST TO WEST GALES
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH THIS PACKAGE. ELEVATED WESTERLY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS COULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
OHZ011>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
PA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>144.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LEZ142>147-162>167.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LEZ142>144-162>164.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ145>149.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ148-
149-168-169.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
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