892
FXUS61 KCLE 040742
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
342 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR 2 MORE DAYS THROUGH
FRIDAY.
2.) RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
3.) ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN, BUT NOT AFTER TWO MORE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER FOR
THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME, THE GRADUAL WARM UP FOR THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AS WE FINALLY GET INTO RETURN FLOW
FROM HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FINALLY SHUTS
OFF THE NORTHEAST WINDS THAT PLAGUES THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY THIS WEEK, AND THE INSOLATION OVER DRY GROUND WILL CONTINUE
CONTRIBUTING TO RISING TEMPERATURES AS WELL. BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER
80S WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE CWA WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FINALLY BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY BACK TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE RETURN FLOW WILL PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT BOOST TO
THE DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BY SATURDAY. A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS CONVECTION TO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, AIDED BY PVA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, AND
THEN ANOTHER WAVE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO WILL
EXPECT INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVEL JET DURING THIS TIME FRAME
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO 1.25-1.75 INCHES
SUPPORTING HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINNING
SUNDAY WITH TWO MAIN POINTS. THE FIRST IS THE TREND BACK TOWARDS
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME, AND THE SECOND WILL
BE HEAT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS WELL WHERE 850MB TEMPERATURES
HIT THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90F IN PLACES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, 7 TO 10 KNOTS. A LAKE BREEZE
MAY IMPACT CLE/ERI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
AFTER SUNSET, FAVORING A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR LIKELY AT TIMES
ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
MAINLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH
PERIODS OF NEAR 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WIND TRENDS, THOUGH SMALL
CRAFT POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, AROUND 10
KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN FAVOR AN EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY
MONDAY, 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD POSE A STRONG WIND THREAT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...KAHN
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