288
FXUS61 KCLE 082325
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
725 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE TIMING FOR ANY RAIN AND MINOR WIND IMPACTS IN THE AREA FROM
HURRICANE ISAIAS HAS SLOWED A BIT WITH MOST OF THE IMPACTS
OCCURRING ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE WITH SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT FROST
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WITH MODERATING NIGHTLY TEMPERATURES.
2) RAIN AND ELEVATED WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE EXTREMELY LOCALIZED GIVEN THE RECENT
DRY SPELL AND LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
LAST THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 40S AND
SOME UPPER 30S IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS BUT FROST POTENTIAL WILL
BE LOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO GET A BUMP INTO THE 70S AND MAYBE SOME 80S FOR
SATURDAY WITH INCREASING NIGHTLY TEMPERATURES.
ONE MINOR CONCERN THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 25-40% RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING AND MIXING. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY SPELL FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, FUEL MOISTURE IS ON THE LOWER END, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL OHIO. GIVEN THIS AND MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE SPREAD CONCERNS IF A FIRE
WERE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, ALL CONDITIONS WITH THE WEATHER AND
FUELS REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A HEADLINE OR EVEN A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WHAT
HAPPENS WITH HURRICANE ISAIAS IN THE GULF OF AMERICA. ISAIAS
WILL MOVE NORTH AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN CIRCULATION WILL SLOW IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE PICKED UP
BY THE FLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF
THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN TO
ENTER THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
SUNDAY WITH THE ADVANCING REMNANT LOW WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHARP GRADIENT OF RAINFALL
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MAIN RAINFALL AXIS ALIGNS. AREAS OF
NORTHWEST OHIO MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR SO,
WHEREAS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER APPROACHING 1.5-2 INCHES. GIVEN LOW RIVER FLOWS AND THE
RECENT DRY PATTERN, FLOODING WILL BE LOCALIZED AND NUISANCE AT
WORST OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CALM AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
WIDESPREAD VFR AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST. SOME SCT
AFTERNOON CU ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ALL CLOUDS BASES
SHOULD REMAIN 5KFT OR HIGHER.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
LAKE ERIE WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS AND WAVES IN THE 3 TO 5 FT
RANGE. WILL MAINTAIN PART OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN BASIN BUT WILL CHOP OFF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ADVISORY AS WINDS AND WAVES HAVE BEEN LESS PROBLEMATIC IN OHIO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
FLOW FOR FRIDAY, ALLOWING A PLEASANT MARINE WEATHER DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST FOR SATURDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
EXPECTED. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ISAIAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
149.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...04
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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