668  
FXUS61 KCLE 250533  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
133 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST COAST  
THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE  
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF IT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS  
THE REGION ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
WEAKENING TROUGH IS MOVING NEAR LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING  
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/VERY WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS  
WESTERN NY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY CLIP ERIE COUNTY, PA BUT STARTING  
TO BELIEVE THAT IT WILL ONLY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER THIS  
REGION. MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER  
MENTIONED AROUND SUNRISE.  
 
OTHERWISE THE SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS THE  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITS NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER. THE ONE MINOR  
DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY IS THAT THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE WEST  
SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND INDICATIONS THERE IS A  
RIPPLE OF ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN  
INDIANA. THIS FEATURE AND THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS MAY FOCUS  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA, POTENTIALLY BEST  
NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR/TO JUST SOUTH OF SANDUSKY BAY. WILL  
ALSO MONITOR THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ANY OTHER DIFFERENTIAL  
HEATING BOUNDARY TO INFLUENCE CONVECTION FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER  
IF THESE DEVELOP IT WOULD BE ALONG THE SLIGHT STRONGER LAKE  
BREEZE CIRCULATION FROM EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY EASTWARD TO  
ASHTABULA COUNTY. WE WARMED A BIT MORE THAN ANTICIPATED ON  
SUNDAY AND WITH A WARMER START EXPECTED THIS MORNING WE SEE NO  
REASON TO GO COOLER EVEN WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER. SO EXPECT  
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80'S TO AROUND 90. SLIGHTLY HIGHER  
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL KEEP MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE  
UPPER 80'S TO LOWER 90'S.  
 
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE  
WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ELSEWHERE  
THE CONVECTION SHOULD END VERY CLOSE TO SUNSET. MAY HAVE A BIT  
MORE CLOUD COVER LINGER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WOULD  
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60'S TO  
AROUND 70.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
BY TUESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND,  
HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE AREA.  
SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP SUPPRESS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FOR THE MOST  
PART, HOWEVER SHOULD A MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND/OR WEAK VORT  
MAXES DEVELOP ELEVATED CONVECTION THEN COULD SEE ISOLATED  
COVERAGE. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON  
WHEN LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS CAN BE  
REACHED. FOR NOW MENTION ONLY ISOL/SCT COVERAGE FOR TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS 500-1000+ J/KG MUCAPE EACH AFTERNOON SO  
ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS LIMITED FOR MUCH  
ORGANIZATION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW  
WITH SPEEDS IN THE LOWER TEENS EVEN WITH DECENT MIXING.  
DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT AMOUNT OF LAKEBREEZE INTRUSION SOUTHWARD  
AS FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SW BUT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS  
MARGINAL.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY A STRONG MOISTURE PLUME WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE  
GULF INTO IN/MI. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL PENETRATE EAST INTO  
OHIO, SO HAVE A NOTABLE RANGE OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON  
WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES  
WHERE CONVERGENCE AND A WEAKER CAP SHOULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT  
RESPECTIVE TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES  
WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
LOOK FOR THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION BY THURSDAY WITH PWATS  
AROUND 1.7" (90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WHICH WILL  
FAVOR THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE  
EXPECTED INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE  
LOWER TO MID 80S, AND WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WE  
MAY SEE MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN BY THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A COLD  
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO  
GENERATE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL  
SAG INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF  
THIS FEATURE SO HAVE EXTENDED POPS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. DRIER  
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS AS  
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOOK FOR COOLER AND  
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IN WHEN  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND  
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDER  
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE  
TREND OF PROB30 GROUPS FOR KTOL/KFDY/KMFD AND A VICINITY MENTION  
FOR KCLE. IN THE VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT MVFR,  
BRIEF IFR, CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.  
 
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 12 KNOTS OR LESS AT  
ALL INLAND SITES. KCLE WILL HAVE THE LAKE BREEZE GET CLOSE TO  
THE TERMINAL BUT MAY JUST REACH THE NORTH END OF THE RUNWAY. THE  
LAKE BREEZE WILL DEFINITELY IMPACT KERI WITH A WESTERLY WINDS OF  
AROUND 10 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH  
THURSDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND NON-VFR POSSIBLE  
FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT ONGOING  
SW WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK  
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS  
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WAVES UNDER 3 FT  
THROUGHOUT. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS, WILL ALSO CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINS  
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MM  
NEAR TERM...MM  
SHORT TERM...JAMISON  
LONG TERM...JAMISON  
AVIATION...MM  
MARINE...JAMISON  
 
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