738
FXUS61 KCLE 042002
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
402 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING, THOUGH
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH INITIALIZATION BACK A FEW
HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING,
THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
2) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH MINOR RIVER FLOODING
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
3) COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SCATTTERED FROST POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN
NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN OHIO. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
PUSHING BACK INITIALIZATION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE OF
HOURS TO 21-22Z IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO
MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING SLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND COLDER MID
LEVELS. DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO LOW 50S THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY AND LAPSE
RATES WILL CLIMB WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THOUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS IN WESTERN
OHIO. SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE AREA
WEST OF SANDUSKY AND TIFFIN, OH WITH THE REST OF OHIO IN A MARGINAL
RISK. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 00-02Z
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT RAIN WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST MID DAY
TOMORROW. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AND MAY CAUSE
SOME NUISANCE FLOODING AND POSSIBLE RIVER RISES ACROSS THE REGION.
QPF FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL IS AROUND 0.75-1.50"
WITH AMOUNTS EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE 850
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND -2C BY FRIDAY MORNING. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S. FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THOSE DAYS, THOUGH WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER, MAY BE MORE
ISOLATED.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NW OH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPAND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE HIGHEST AT NW OH AND LAKESHORE TERMINALS
(INCLUDING KTOL/KFDY/KCLE/KERI) THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
MAY MOVE INLAND AND POSSIBLY IMPACT KMFD/KCAK/KYNG LATER
TONIGHT. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT/EXACT TIMING
OF STORMS TONIGHT SO AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY AS THE FORECAST
EVOLVES. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FILLS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS FAR AS FLIGHT CONDITIONS GO, VFR
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF RAIN WITH NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE DIRECTLY OVER TERMINALS. LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT CEILINGS REMAIN IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE
UNTIL THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND
30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT KTOL/KFDY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN NW OH BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS MAY BECOME ERRATIC AND GUSTY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
MOVE DIRECTLY OVER TERMINALS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. A 40-50 KNOT
LLJ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LLWS AT MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
WEST TO EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS MAY
RETURN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
PERIODICALLY OCCUR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A HEADLINE AT THIS POINT. GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE LAKE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISH BELOW 10 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH VARIABLE WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY INTO
EARLY WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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