326  
FXUS61 KCLE 202045  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
345 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM  
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING A  
WINTRY MIX AND EVEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK MAY  
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NE OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
A CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON BEING OBSERVED. THIS BAND HAS SHIFTED  
UP THE LAKE AND IS NOW ORIENTED ACROSS EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY  
ACROSS WESTERN GEAUGA COUNTY INTO PORTAGE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST WEST OF THIS MAIN BAND. THE  
MAIN BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN PRODUCING AN INCH OF SNOW IN UNDER 20  
MINUTES AS IT WOBBLES ACROSS THE AREA. MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 2 TO  
4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH A LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNT IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT AND  
OVER NW PA SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN IN  
THE 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCH RANGE. THE MAIN REASON TO KEEP THE WINTER  
STORM WARNING GOING IS THE GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO  
REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND PRODUCE DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.  
 
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE  
REGION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR ACROSS THE WEST AND  
POTENTIAL PORTIONS OF NE OH AND NW PA. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL  
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT BELIEVE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO  
15 MPH RANGE SO WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD DIP BELOW -10. NW OHIO  
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL BE THE COLDEST AREAS WITH WIND  
CHILLS AROUND -20. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR A  
POTENTIAL WIND CHILL WARNING.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW  
THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACROSS NE OH INTO  
NW PA BY MONDAY EVENING. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD  
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -5 TO 5 DEGREES. EASTERLY  
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE ON TUESDAY SO WE WILL  
NEED TO MONITOR FOR A SHORT PERIOD WHERE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES  
DIP BELOW -10.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
BY TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVING AWAY  
FROM THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TO AVERAGE LEVELS. MOST  
LOCATIONS WILL REACH IF NOT BARELY OVER THE FREEZING MARK BY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID WEEK  
SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND DIG ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL U.S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE  
ACROSS THE MIDWEST UP INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.  
 
WE WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM FOR MOST OF  
THE PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT. WE  
MIGHT HAVE TO MONITOR SOME FOG POTENTIAL AS MILDER AND MOIST AIR  
MOVES OVER OUR SNOW PACK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE  
MAY SEE A LIGHT WINTRY WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP MOVING END TUESDAY  
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME ON HOW  
MUCH AND HOW QUICKLY THE FREEZING LINE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING  
THE NIGHT. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD AND COLD RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING  
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL  
CLIMB TO THE 40S BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OR MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND AS TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN  
FROM WEST TO EAST, WE WILL SEE THE RAIN CHANGE BACK TO LIGHT SNOW.  
WE MAY END UP SEEING AROUND AN INCH OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE  
BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
THE MAIN CONCERN TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE  
MODELS ARE INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO TRAVEL UP THE  
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. IF THIS OCCURS, OUR  
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS MAY HAVE A ANOTHER WAVE OR SNOW MOVING THROUGH  
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS BETWEEN A 10% TO  
30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING A .25 OF AN INCH OF LIQUID FOR SNOWFALL  
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WOULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL  
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND MUCH  
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF  
SYNOPTIC SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
MACHINES WILL BE TURNED BACK ON LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR  
ALL THE SNOWBELT AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW AVERAGE. MODERATE  
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR THE SNOWBELT  
AREAS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS AREA OCCURRING ACROSS THE WEST WITH LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE  
OH, MAINLY IMPACTING KCLE AND KCAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME  
BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. THE LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRY TO LIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING BUT  
IT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. ALL LOCATIONS WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH  
VFR LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.  
 
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 20 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT  
THEN SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL  
BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE, STRONGEST NEAR THE LAKESHORE.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT INTO  
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE OHIO. NON-VFR POSSIBLE  
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WE HAVE CONCERNS CONTINUING FROM THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND VERY  
COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE  
MONDAY. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MONDAY EVENING. WE  
HAVE ISSUED AN ICE ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE  
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE ARE FORECASTING A RAPID INCREASE OF  
LAKE ICE ESPECIALLY WHEN THE WINDS RELAX AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS  
MOVES OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. WE ALSO HAVE A  
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY  
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL RETURN ON THE LAKE  
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WINDS SHIFT BY  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT TO WESTERLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THE END  
OF THE WEEK AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY IF NOT POSSIBLE GALES  
AGAIN.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ010>014-  
020>023-089.  
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-  
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.  
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.  
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR PAZ001>003.  
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR  
LEZ142>149-162>169.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-  
143.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ144>149.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN  
NEAR TERM...MULLEN  
SHORT TERM...GRIFFIN  
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN  
AVIATION...MULLEN  
MARINE...GRIFFIN  
 
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