342
FXUS61 KCLE 181026
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
626 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THIS MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH INTO THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES WHERE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
2) PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THIS
GREATEST CHANCE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AND
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA,
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
RESULTANT INCREASED GRADIENT OVER THE AREA COUPLED WITH A STRONG
LLJ OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY. CURRENTLY FORECAST IS SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH TODAY OF 20
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE COUNTIES WHERE LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN FURTHER ENHANCEMENT FROM DOWNSLOPING.
INITIAL WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE
BACKING THIS AFTERNOON TO BE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THERE IS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH THE DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ENHANCE MIXING WHICH MAY ULTIMATELY RESULT IN AN OVER-PERFORMING
WIND EVENT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WIND FIELD FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES NEEDED. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LEAFED OUT TREES,
THESE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TOPPLE
TREES AND RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS EVENT
WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT AS WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET
TONIGHT TO BECOME 5-10 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING, A CAA REGIME WILL
DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS PRIMARILY LINGER
IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLING INTO THE 50S. THIS COLDER
AIR WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS TO IMPACT AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ERIE LATE TODAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A MIXED BAG OF CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY, PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS, BKN CEILINGS OF
2-3KFT ARE BEING OBSERVED BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
CEILINGS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS HAVE
BEGUN TO ARRIVE AND WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
ON RADAR THIS MORNING, A LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE CENTRAL INTO EASTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE, EXTENDING A LINE
TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. THIS LINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
EXTEND TOO FAR INLAND BUT IT MAY IMPACT KERI WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR. IN THESE STORMS, VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DIMINISH BRIEFING
TO MVFR.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE STRONG
FORECAST WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AS A STRONG LLJ MOVE
OVER THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY,
ALL TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-25 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 30-35 KNOTS
WEST-SOUTHWEST GALES BY LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN WAVES ALONG THE
LAKESHORE BUILDING TO 6-8 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASINS, WHERE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS IN THE WESTERN BASIN WILL
KEEP WAVES TO 4-6 FEET. EITHER WAY, THESE HIGH WINDS AND
BUILDING WAVES WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND WILL ALSO BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL SHIPS. AS A RESULT,
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN BASIN
WITH A GALE WARNING ELSEWHERE AND THE ENTIRE LAKESHORE HAS A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT GIVEN THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. ALL
HAZARDS WILL EXPIRE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN WATER LEVELS FALLING IN THE
WESTERN BASIN. THESE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE
CRITICAL MARK FOR SAFE NAVIGATION WHICH IS CURRENTLY 13 INCHES.
A LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN AS
WELL.
BY TONIGHT, MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WEAKENING TO 10-15 KNOTS AND WAVES FALLING
TO 3 FEET OR LESS. THESE WINDS WILL VEER A BIT ON FRIDAY,
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY BUILD WAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASINS TO NEAR 4 FEET AND REQUIRE A SHORT FUSED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BEFORE CALM CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-007-
009>012-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ011>014-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>144.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>144-162>164.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ145>149-
165>169.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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