022
FXUS61 KCLE 100626
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
226 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY.
2) SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL RE-ENTER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25-30
MPH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA BY 9 PM THIS EVENING. OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE AROUND 0.25 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
0.50 ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BRIEFLY COOLER BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT SETTLE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE
LAKESHORE AND MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH OF THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL USHER IN DAILY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO
PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP. SPC HAS CLIPPED NORTHWEST OHIO IN THEIR SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SHOWERS AND
NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AFTER ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE
FAVORS MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER VISIBILITIES AND ESPECIALLY CEILINGS MAY FALL TO IFR AT
TIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY, BEST CHANCE AT KERI AND KYNG. RAIN
WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO RECOVER FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 16 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY AND BECOME LIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A
PERIOD OF LLWS IS LIKELY AS A LLJ TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS MOVES OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT ANY LLWS POTENTIAL WILL
DIMINISH AS GUSTS BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING ONSHORE AND
DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SIMILAR FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINAL AT THIS POINT. PERIODS OF ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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