830
FXUS61 KCLE 210211
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
911 PM EST THU FEB 20 2020
SYNOPSIS
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AS IT DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SUNDAY, LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL BRING MILD
AIR AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
UPDATE...MOST OF THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST REMAINS VALID. LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE FROM ROUGHLY CUYAHOGA COUNTY EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHWEST PA AS A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW OF COLD AIR CROSSES THE LAKE. BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE, EXPECT THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO END GRADUALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING AS
A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION
CAUSE ALREADY WEAK LAKE-INDUCED CAPE TO WANE. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, QPF, SNOWFALL, AND SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE EXPECTATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LASTING SEVERAL HOURS
LONGER THAN FORECAST PREVIOUSLY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER IA THIS
AFTERNOON AND COVERED MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL US. THIS HIGH WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS TO EASTERN
TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NWRN PA THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM. FOR THIS EVENING HOWEVER, COLD AIR OVER LAKE ERIE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE SNOWBELT REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
HOWEVER A SNOW SHOWERS COULD DROP A QUICK HALF INCH IN LOCAL
AREAS OF INLAND NWRN PA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THERE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS, WILL DROP LOWS BELOW
GUIDANCE TONIGHT GIVEN DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN OR APPROACHING
SINGLE DIGITS. WILL HAVE MOST AREAS 8 TO 10 DEGREES WITH 10 TO
15 CLOSE TO THE LAKE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RECOVER TO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. INCREASING WINDS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
AXIS DRIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BETTER MIXED AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS LOW. GIVEN
THIS HAVE REMAINED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 20S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE. A VERY MINOR DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL YIELD
SOME CIRRUS EARLY SUNDAY, WITH A SLOW AND STEADY INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
FIRST SYSTEM IN DAYS APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE 40S WITH A FEW
TOUCHING 50 ON SUNDAY.
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CARRY THROUGH A PORTION OF NEXT WORK WEEK. HAVE BROADLY BRUSHED
60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCES FOR MONDAY WITH MORE REFINEMENTS AND
SPECIFICS TO COME WITH FUTURE FORECASTS AND A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
STORM TRACK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOR NOW THE STORM TRACK CONSENSUS IS ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
OH ON TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS WOULD IMPACT LOWS IN PARTICULAR MONDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS TUESDAY. CANNOT NUDGE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER JUST
YET SO HAVE CONTINUED THE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. QUESTIONS REMAIN AFTER
THIS INITIAL WAVE PULLS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GENERATING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO TN VALLEY.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE A COLDER SCENARIO FOR THE LOCAL AREA. AFTER
A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT, BROADLY
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY FOR THIS LOW AND BRING THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TO
THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
WITH COLD AIR ACROSS THE LAKES AND CYCLONIC FLOW FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY WILL HAVE FALLEN
BACK TO AROUND 30 FOR HIGHS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR REGION AS THE
PARENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM IA TO AR. THIS WILL CAUSE
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE BREEZES TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
TIME. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE NO STRONGER THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND VFR ARE
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
POCKETS OF BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER
BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z/FRI. ANY CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BETWEEN 05Z AND 12Z/FRI.
OUTLOOK
NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AND/OR RAIN
EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST BETWEEN THAT HIGH AND THE STORM TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND JAMES BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 30
KNOTS EAST OF LONG POINT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. BETWEEN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE LOWER LAKES WITH WINDS ON LAKE ERIE RESPONDING
BASED ON THE SYSTEMS EVENTUAL TRACK EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
LAKE. FOR NOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRACKS THIS LOW NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THE LAKE THEREFORE THE FORECAST REFLECTS A WIND SHIFT
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JASZKA/TK
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...OUDEMAN
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