808  
FXUS61 KCLE 241047  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
647 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A  
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO  
EARLY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST  
INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE  
AREA SUNDAY AND WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. WILL  
HAVE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION MOVING INTO NW IN THAT COULD  
POSSIBLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA  
MIDDAY. HOWEVER, EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BE ON A DIMINISHING  
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND WILL RIDE WITH A  
DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.  
 
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...  
A RELATIVELY QUIET END OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES DRIFTS EAST TODAY. RIDGING WILL  
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE WARM  
FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WENT WITH A  
DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, DESPITE SOME OF THE HIGHER  
RES MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION DIVING  
SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATER THIS MORNING/MIDDAY.  
EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE DISSIPATED BY THAT POINT, WITH  
ANY REMAINING ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A POP UP SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST  
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A REMNANT MCV  
TRACKS ALONG THE RIDGE ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NW PA/WESTERN NY,  
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR A FORECAST MENTION GIVEN RELATIVELY  
STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY  
WITH SOME FLOW OFF THE LAKE. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S  
AWAY FROM THE LAKE, POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE  
FAR SOUTH. TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S NEAR THE LAKE. FORECAST  
TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE WARMEST MOS AND CONSENSUS RAW MODEL  
GUIDANCE.  
 
THE OHIO VALLEY WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE  
AREA LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE TO  
THE NORTH AND WEST ALONG A ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET CORRIDOR NOSING  
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING MOST OF THE UPSTREAM  
ACTIVITY TO OVERTOP THE RIDGE AND TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WILL CARRY SOME  
LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/LAKE ERIE  
DURING THIS TIME. SATURDAY WILL START OUT DRY FOR MOST OF THE  
AREA, BUT POPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY LATE  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. SOME WEAK  
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EAST WITH MODEST DESTABILIZATION MAY LEAD  
TO SOME EARLY DAY CONVECTION, BUT THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE  
EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE  
MID 60S SOUTHWEST TO THE MID 50S NORTHEAST. WENT ON THE WARMER  
END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WITH MID UPPER 80S ACROSS  
OHIO AND LOW 80S ACROSS NW PA, GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION AND GOOD  
WAA THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE DECENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD  
FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY  
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG  
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SEVERE  
THREAT WOULD MAINLY BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z.  
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD TAKE ALL OF THIS CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CWA  
BY MIDNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO EARLY MONDAY BUT WILL RETURN AS A WARM  
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS  
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS TIME WE  
WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR  
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BETTER CHANCES CLOSER TO THE  
LAKE. IF THE FRONT ENDS UP NORTH OF THE LAKE THESE CHANCES WILL BE  
REMOVED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE  
SHAPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION. EACH MODEL HAS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING WITH THE APPROACH  
OF THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SO CONFIDENCE  
IS LOW WITH ANY OF THE DETAILS.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN  
THE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. IF CLOUD COVER BECOMES THICK ENOUGH  
ACROSS NW OH ON WEDNEDAY HIGHS MAY BE HELD IN THE MIDDLE 70S.  
THURSDAY SHOULD BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN  
THE 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE  
DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MORNING CONVECTION  
WILL TRACK ACROSS IN TOWARDS NW OH MIDDAY. EXPECTING THE  
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BEFORE IT REACHES KTOL/KFDY, BUT A VERY  
SMALL CHANCE THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHRA/TSRA AT THESE SITES  
MIDDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA  
TONIGHT, WITH SOME INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER LATE IN  
THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT  
OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD MAINLY STAY NORTH OF THE REGION, SO NO  
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS  
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY VARIABLE AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH  
THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, BECOMING  
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE LAKE TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS.  
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.  
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE STORM SYSTEM THAT INTERACT WITH THE LAKE  
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT  
ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
ENTIRE LAKE BY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST  
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE LAKE.  
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY FOR WAVES BUILDING  
CLOSE TO THE 4 FOOT THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY EVENING INTO  
THE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER SOUTHERN OHIO  
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGING ACROSS THE LAKE. THE  
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE  
LAKE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...GREENAWALT  
NEAR TERM...GREENAWALT  
SHORT TERM...MM  
LONG TERM...MM  
AVIATION...GREENAWALT  
MARINE...MM  
 
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