668
FXUS61 KCLE 250533
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
133 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF IT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAKENING TROUGH IS MOVING NEAR LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/VERY WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY CLIP ERIE COUNTY, PA BUT STARTING
TO BELIEVE THAT IT WILL ONLY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER THIS
REGION. MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
MENTIONED AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE THE SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITS NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER. THE ONE MINOR
DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY IS THAT THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND INDICATIONS THERE IS A
RIPPLE OF ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN
INDIANA. THIS FEATURE AND THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS MAY FOCUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA, POTENTIALLY BEST
NEAR THE LAKE BREEZE NEAR/TO JUST SOUTH OF SANDUSKY BAY. WILL
ALSO MONITOR THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ANY OTHER DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY TO INFLUENCE CONVECTION FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER
IF THESE DEVELOP IT WOULD BE ALONG THE SLIGHT STRONGER LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATION FROM EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY EASTWARD TO
ASHTABULA COUNTY. WE WARMED A BIT MORE THAN ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY AND WITH A WARMER START EXPECTED THIS MORNING WE SEE NO
REASON TO GO COOLER EVEN WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER. SO EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80'S TO AROUND 90. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL KEEP MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
UPPER 80'S TO LOWER 90'S.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ELSEWHERE
THE CONVECTION SHOULD END VERY CLOSE TO SUNSET. MAY HAVE A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER LINGER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH WOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60'S TO
AROUND 70.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
BY TUESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OVER NEW ENGLAND,
HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE AREA.
SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP SUPPRESS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FOR THE MOST
PART, HOWEVER SHOULD A MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND/OR WEAK VORT
MAXES DEVELOP ELEVATED CONVECTION THEN COULD SEE ISOLATED
COVERAGE. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
WHEN LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS CAN BE
REACHED. FOR NOW MENTION ONLY ISOL/SCT COVERAGE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS 500-1000+ J/KG MUCAPE EACH AFTERNOON SO
ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS LIMITED FOR MUCH
ORGANIZATION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SW
WITH SPEEDS IN THE LOWER TEENS EVEN WITH DECENT MIXING.
DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT AMOUNT OF LAKEBREEZE INTRUSION SOUTHWARD
AS FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SW BUT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS
MARGINAL.
FOR WEDNESDAY A STRONG MOISTURE PLUME WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF INTO IN/MI. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL PENETRATE EAST INTO
OHIO, SO HAVE A NOTABLE RANGE OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE CONVERGENCE AND A WEAKER CAP SHOULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT
RESPECTIVE TO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR THE MOST PART TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOOK FOR THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION BY THURSDAY WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.7" (90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WHICH WILL
FAVOR THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE
EXPECTED INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S, AND WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WE
MAY SEE MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN BY THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SAG INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS FEATURE SO HAVE EXTENDED POPS THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTH. LOOK FOR COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IN WHEN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDER
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE
TREND OF PROB30 GROUPS FOR KTOL/KFDY/KMFD AND A VICINITY MENTION
FOR KCLE. IN THE VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT MVFR,
BRIEF IFR, CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 12 KNOTS OR LESS AT
ALL INLAND SITES. KCLE WILL HAVE THE LAKE BREEZE GET CLOSE TO
THE TERMINAL BUT MAY JUST REACH THE NORTH END OF THE RUNWAY. THE
LAKE BREEZE WILL DEFINITELY IMPACT KERI WITH A WESTERLY WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND NON-VFR POSSIBLE
FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT ONGOING
SW WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WAVES UNDER 3 FT
THROUGHOUT. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, WILL ALSO CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...JAMISON
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