583
FXUS61 KCLE 300009
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
809 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED THE COVERAGE BUT NOT THE MAGNITUDE OF POPS TONIGHT
SLIGHTLY IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT LIGHT RAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
2) UNSETTLED/WET CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND LOW PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DEFINED AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT,
CONTINUING WITH THE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIKELY A BRIEF
BREAK INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY TUESDAY, AND THEN MORE
ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMING MORE DEFINED HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. POPS ON THE INCREASE AS THIS FORCING MOVES NORTHEASTWARD,
PUTTING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN CWA ZONES. WITH THE TUESDAY
EVENING/TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT, LIKELY TO BE ANOTHER HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH AT LEAST ELEVATED CAPE
IN PLAY. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, STILL HAVE TIME FOR SOME OF THOSE
MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, WITH ONLY A MARGINAL
RISK ON DAY 3 FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. DOWNPOURS WORKING
THEIR WAY INTO THE FOLD AS WELL IN HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY
VERTICAL PROFILES AND PWAT VALUES MORE MID TO LATE SPRING-LIKE IN
THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. SHARPLY COOLER ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY, BUT
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING IT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THEN LIKELY DRAPED OVER THE CWA
AS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT
IS THAT AN UNSETTLED WET PATTERN WILL OCCUPY MUCH OF THE FORECAST
BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH OFF AND ON RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH NO
VEGETATION OUT YET AND IN CONTINUED HIGH PWAT SETUPS, WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE OVERALL ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
HIGH STREAM/CREEK/RIVER LEVELS AND PONDING OF WATER, ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE TUESDAY NIGHT WEATHER. MUCH OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
FREQUENCY OF THE RAIN, AND ALSO THE DURATION OF THE BREAKS IN
BETWEEN. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ISSUES AT THIS MOMENT IN THE
FORECAST, HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES AFTER WEDNESDAY WILL TREND ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE STARTING OFF VFR THIS EVENING WITH A BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS AT MFD OR CAK BUT
CHANCES ARE BELOW 40 PERCENT AND EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WE DO
HAVE A WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER IN THE FORECAST WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 1500 AND WINDS INCREASING TO 35-40
KNOTS AT THAT LEVEL BETWEEN 07-14Z. SURFACE WINDS BECOME BREEZY
WITH GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS ON MONDAY BETWEEN 15-22Z. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH MVFR DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. AN EXPANSION OF SHOWERS
IS ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND HAVE
INCLUDED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT MFD/CLE/CAK/YNG/ERI. A FEW
MODERATE SHOWERS OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
THINK BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEYOND THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL NON-VFR LIKELY IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AND THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS (HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE LAKE) WILL LIKELY REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
DURING THIS TIME AND THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE AS
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF LULL IN
HEADLINES IS LIKELY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEFORE WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...10
MARINE...15
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