866
FXUS61 KCLE 110740
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES IN OHIO AS HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE
OVERNIGHT RELIEF ANTICIPATED. COOLER WEATHER BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE UNDER A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. SOME REMNANT SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECTING MOST
OF THE DAYTIME HOURS TO BE DRY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN SHOW COMES LATER THIS EVENING AS A DECAYING MCS WILL
TRACK EAST TOWARDS WESTERN ZONES. MOST HI-RES CAMS HAVE THE MCS
PETERING OUT AS IT REACHES THE I-75 CORRIDOR TONIGHT BETWEEN 11
PM THURSDAY AND 1 AM FRIDAY. SPC DOES HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) AND THE I-75 CORRIDOR UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A
SECONDARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL, PARTICULARLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA.
THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT. STORMS MAY REINVIGORATE ALONG THE OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PULLED OUR ENTIRE AREA OUT OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY AS STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF OUR CWA BORDER. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEKEND AND
BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BEFORE THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT GLIDES EAST ON FRIDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM FOR ALL OHIO COUNTIES IN THE CWA. PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 100F THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S COUPLED WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW 70S. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL LARGELY RANGE BETWEEN
95-100F THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SPOTS IN THE ADVISORY MAY NOT "REACH"
THE 100F CRITERIA, BUT HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. COOLER BEHIND
SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS MOVING EAST ACROSS INDIANA.
THERE'S BEEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS LINE, BUT STILL
EXPECT A CONTINUING WEAKENING TREND AS THE COMPLEX APPROACHES
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER/GUSTY WINDS MAY MOVE OVER KTOL/KFDY BETWEEN
ABOUT 09Z AND 12Z WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FARTHER EAST. CAMS
DIVERGE DURING THE DAY TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT
IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM KCLE TO KMFD EASTWARD
AFTER ABOUT 12Z THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS WILL BE HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON IF THE
EARLY DAY SHOWERS/STORMS DON'T MATERIALIZE. REGARDLESS, ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVE DIRECTLY OVER TERMINALS COULD PRODUCE
ERRATIC/GUSTY WINDS AND NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS AND
ESPECIALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 14 KNOTS WITH
PERIODIC GUSTS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, WIND GUSTS COULD BE STRONGER IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE I-71
CORRIDOR. NON-VFR MAY RETURN IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
HIGHEST WAVES WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED OFFSHORE SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY WON'T BE NEEDED UNLESS WINDS TREND A BIT
HIGHER, BUT THERE IS BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM
CUYAHOGA COUNTY EAST AS WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY EARLY
FRIDAY. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AND WINDS AND WAVES COULD BE HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY BEFORE
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED AS
ELEVATED WINDS SHIFT ONSHORE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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