852  
FXUS61 KCLE 091918  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
318 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS  
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES OVER THE AREA, PERSISTING THROUGH  
MID-WEEK. ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS  
THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO  
RIVER VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH  
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BE A FOCUS OF HIGHER MOISTURE.  
DUE TO THIS, WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG  
AND SOUTH OF US-30 WITH AREAS NORTH OF US-30 GRADUALLY SEEING A  
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. THE DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE  
KEY IN WHETHER OR NOT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE  
CURRENT FORECAST HAS SOME CLEARING IN NW OH AND NW PA WHICH  
WOULD AID IN INCREASED OVERNIGHT COOLING. THIS COUPLED WITH  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT,  
ESPECIALLY WITH ALL THE RECENT PRECIPITATION. THE CAVEAT HERE IS  
THAT IF THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AND SLOWS COOLING, THESE AREAS  
MAY NOT REACH SATURATION BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOUD  
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING, ADJUSTING THE FOG POTENTIAL AS  
NEEDED.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED BOUNDARY WILL ALSO KEEP THE POTENTIAL  
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA  
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY, NO THUNDER  
IS ANTICIPATED. AS THE BOUNDARY AGAIN BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AND A  
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA.  
 
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT  
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND A HIGH  
TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERALL  
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE TRUE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE ON OUR DOOR STEP THURSDAY MORNING AS  
A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT  
LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND  
INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PLOW A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER  
GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA DURING THE MORNING  
HOURS. BECAUSE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS ALREADY NORTHWESTERLY  
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOISTURE RETURN IS VERY LIMITED. IN  
FACT, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER, AND THE LATEST NBM WAS COMPLETELY  
DRY FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO THE  
GREAT LAKES, AN 80-100 KNOT H3 JET STREAK WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH NORTHERN OHIO BEING NEAR THE  
LEFT EXIT REGION, SO THIS ENHANCED LIFT SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT A BAND OF  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. BLENDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS  
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MID DAY, DRYING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN  
GREAT LAKES STARTS TO BUILD IN. THE DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN  
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH (CANADIAN HIGH) BECOMES  
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL  
LEAD TO COOL, DRY NW FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH  
LOWER HUMIDITY (DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.  
 
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WITH MID/UPPER 70S  
FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S/LOW 60S WITH  
LOW/UPPER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT. OPEN THE WINDOWS FOR A CHANGE!  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH  
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG RIDGE  
UPSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH WILL  
ACTUALLY CLOSE OFF ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND  
SATURDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY LIFTING UP THE NEW ENGLAND  
COAST SUNDAY. THIS POINTS TO THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN NOT BREAKING DOWN  
ANYTIME SOON, SO TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE NEXT CHANCES FOR  
PRECIPITATION. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL STILL BE CENTERED OVER THE  
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY BUT WILL SHIFT INTO THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE BIG MID/UPPER  
RIDGE UPSTREAM TRIES TO SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EAST. A SHORTWAVE LOOKS  
TO DROP THROUGH THE NW FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE  
ASSOCIATED JET ENERGY AND PVA KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT  
WITH THE HIGH SLOW TO DEPART AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, DELAYED  
MOST OF THE SHOWERS UNTIL SUNDAY. EVEN THEN, JUST EXPECT SCATTERED,  
LIGHT SHOWERS SINCE THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT/WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL  
TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY  
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH  
PLEASANT HUMIDITY LEVELS CONTINUING, SO IT WILL BE A VERY NICE  
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY.  
 
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH THE  
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SOMETIME BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
MONDAY, FLATTENING THE UPSTREAM RIDGE A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE  
RIDGE TO BRIEFLY ELONGATE INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A WARM FRONT  
CREEPING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY. THE BEST  
INSTABILITY GRADIENT STILL LOOKS TO BE WEST OF OUR REGION, BUT ONE  
OR MORE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE  
LIKELIHOOD THAT AT LEAST SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER REACH OUR  
AREA AT SOME POINT, SO KEPT BROAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS  
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION CAN BE BETTER  
DEFINED. THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS THAT ANOTHER (AND STRONGER)  
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND KICK THE RIDGE  
BACK TOWARD THE ROCKIES CAUSING TROUGHING TO RE-LOAD ACROSS THE  
EASTERN CONUS, SO KEPT NBM CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY  
WITH A PROBABLE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND THAT TIME. HIGHS MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70'S/LOW 80S, BUT IT WILL BE  
MORE HUMID WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH POCKETS OF  
BOTH VFR AND IFR. IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE  
SOUTHERN TERMINALS, CLOSEST TO THE LOCATION OF THE NEARLY  
STALLED BOUNDARY. THERE REMAIN SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN  
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 30, WHICH HAS CAUSED  
VISIBILITIES TO BRIEFLY DROP TO 3-5 SM. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR TERMINALS IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
TERMINALS NORTH OF ROUTE 30 SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE LIFTING OF  
CEILINGS TO VFR HEIGHTS, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED INTO THE EARLY  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA  
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT, THIS MAY ALLOW FOR  
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPTED TO HANDLE THIS IN A TEMPO FOR KTOL,  
KFDY, AND KCLE. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE OTHER SITES REMAINS  
LOW, SO OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF BUT CONDITIONS WILL NEED  
TO BE MONITORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH.  
 
WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD  
WITH ALL TERMINALS LIFTING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE  
PERIOD.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IS POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS AND WAVES ON THE LAKE HAVE DIMINISHED NICELY THIS AFTERNOON  
WITH GENERALLY N TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH  
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AND WAVES MOSTLY 1 FOOT OR LESS. WINDS WILL BACK  
TO WSW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS WILL GENERATE 2-3  
FOOT WAVES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN AND POSSIBLY UP TO 4  
FEET FROM CONNEAUT TO RIPLEY WHILE 1-2 FOOT WAVES OCCUR IN THE  
WESTERN BASIN. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY VEER TO N BEHIND THE FRONT  
THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY INTO  
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2-4 FEET. THIS WILL BE  
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND RIP  
CURRENTS, BUT KEPT WINDS AND WAVES A LITTLE BELOW CRITERIA FOR NOW.  
WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS  
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD BEFORE TURNING SW AND  
GRADUALLY INCREASING SUNDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST.  
 

 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...CAMPBELL  
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL  
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS  
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS  
AVIATION...CAMPBELL  
MARINE...GARUCKAS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab PA Page Main Text Page