979
FXUS61 KCLE 281825
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
225 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS ON THE INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KICK OFF PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT.
2) ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGING COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AND 25 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DROPS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE END OF THE MONTH OF MARCH CONTINUES WITH THESE DRAMATIC SWINGS
IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH STRONG COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. LEADING UP TO THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THIS CHILLY AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, AND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY
AGAIN. A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP NORTH OF THE CWA MONDAY AND THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BEGIN SETTING OFF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT WEAK
RIPPLES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS WELL TO ASSIST THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. HEADING THROUGH TUESDAY,
THE WARMING CONTINUES, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK WELL INTO THE
70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT, AND NO REASON NOT TO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY IT. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE AGAIN FOR THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 50S. STILL
PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT OUT OTHER DETAILS WITH THE SYSTEM LIKE
INSTABILITY AND ULTIMATELY ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. BUT AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, THIS WILL BE ANOTHER AIRMASS CHANGING COLD FRONT
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 20-30 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BEGIN A LITTLE BIT MORE OF AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN, AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL COME THROUGH SLIGHTLY
QUICKER AS LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
REGION TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
RESULTS OF THIS WILL BE NOT QUITE AS LOW OF A STARTING POINT FOR THE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY, WITH 40S AS
OPPOSED TO THE 30S THAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS,
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FOLD QUICKER WITH THE NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING THE
60S AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ANY LINGERING LOWER CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT VERY EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. FROM THERE,
VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS (GREATER THAN 10KFT) WILL LIKELY EXPAND EAST OVER THE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND
REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR LIKELY AT TIMES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME LINGERING LOWER CEILINGS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL NON-VFR LIKELY IN RAIN
ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF WINDS TO 20 KNOTS EAST OF CONNEAUT, OH THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, BUT THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF
RIPLEY, NY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND WINDS IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL BASIN
MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE ABOVE 15 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE AS SOUTHWEST WINDS DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY WITH HEADLINES LIKELY CONTINUING
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BUT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS THURSDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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