701
FXUS61 KCLE 090148
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
948 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME LOW IMPACT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE SURFACE HIGH HAS DRIFTED INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND S TO SE LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ALLOWING FOR SLOW WARMING. SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW
THE NEXT MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
USHERING IN MUCH WARMER AIR. THIS WILL SET UP A MUCH MILDER
NIGHT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AT THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE WEAK UPPER SUPPORT WILL COORDINATE TO
A WEAKER LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. WITH THIS BEING SAID, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
AS IT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT EXPECT THESE TO BE LOW-IMPACT WITH
JUST SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN NW OHIO AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE. THE
LATEST SWODY2 MAINTAINS GENERAL THUNDER IN NW OHIO.
COVERAGE OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INDUCING A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE THAT TRAVERSES THE BOUNDARY. MOISTURE ADVECTION
STILL DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG, BUT WE WILL BE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90-100 KNOT UPPER
JET STREAK, SO THIS WILL HELP TO MAKE IT RAIN IN MOST OF THE
CWA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER WIND
FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR WITH THE WAVE COULD GENERATE SOME
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
FRIDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE 0.20 TO 0.50 INCHES, SO DO NOT EXPECT
ANY OF THE FLOODING TO BE RE-AGGRAVATED. OVERALL, FRIDAY WILL
BE A WETTER DAY, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH COOLER BUT
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE WITH THE NE
FLOW.
A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL START SUNDAY AS A LARGE
MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON
COASTS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A DEEP MID/UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST THAT WILL GRADUALLY SWING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE, MID/UPPER
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD,
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUICKLY RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SET UP DEEP SW FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND PERHAPS TOUCHING 80 BY TUESDAY. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO
BE ON THE RISE MAKING IT FEEL HUMID BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BESIDES THE WARMTH, THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECT OUT OF THE BIG UPSTREAM TROUGH AND
INTERACT WITH AN OPEN GULF. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL NW
OF THE REGION UNTIL TUESDAY, SO THIS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE
WIDELY SCATTERED UNTIL THEN, BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY, SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE MONITORED, BUT THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ALOFT, WSW'ERLY TO W'ERLY FLOW AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AFFECT
OUR REGION THROUGH 00Z/FRI. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL PRECEDE THE AXIS OF EACH SUBTLE DISTURBANCE. AT
THE SURFACE, A RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXIT E'WARD AND A WARM FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP N'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN ~08Z AND ~14Z/THURS.
BY 00Z/FRI, A SE'WARD-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD NEAR A CYYZ, ON
TO KFNT, MI TO KFWA, IN LINE. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SSE'ERLY TO S'ERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH
14Z/THURS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER OUR REGION BETWEEN ~03Z AND ~09Z/THURS AS A
SW'ERLY 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET FORMS AT/NEAR 925 MB.
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO END BETWEEN
12Z AND 14Z/THURS. FROM 14Z/THURS THROUGH 00Z/FRI, OUR REGIONAL
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AND GUST UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY BEFORE
~22Z/THURS.
VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULIFORM CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR
4KFT AGL SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN ~14Z AND ~22Z/THURS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OUTPACE THE
COLD FRONT AND PERSIST GENERALLY E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
~18Z/THURS THROUGH 00Z/FRI. BRIEF MVFR TO IFR AND BRIEF/ERRATIC
SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY STORMS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 15
TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BREEZY INTO
THURSDAY. WE WILL WATCH THE TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE SCA BUT IT MAY
BE A MARGINAL SITUATION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG TOWARDS
LAKE ERIE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT SLOW DOWN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE
LATER ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY 10 TO
20 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH 5 TO 12 KNOTS
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. A RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BACK BY
SUNDAY MORNING, INCREASING DURING THE DAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...77
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