608
FXUS61 KCLE 172335
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
735 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) HAS BEEN EXPANDED EAST INTO NORTHWEST
OHIO FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) FOR TUESDAY HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER EAST INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY APPROACH DAILY RECORDS AT A FEW SITES. COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MID TO LATE WEEK.
2) LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO
TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S AREAWIDE ON MONDAY AND MID 80S BY TUESDAY. AREA DEWPOINTS
WILL PEAK IN THE MID-60S EACH AFTERNOON. WE WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, PROVIDING LITTLE OVERNIGHT
RELIEF. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MAY HAVE BEEN BELOW
AVERAGE WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THIS QUICK HIT OF HEAT TO FEEL
NOTICEABLY WARM. TAKE STEPS TO REDUCE TIME IN THE SUN DURING THE
WARMEST PART OF THE DAY AND REMAIN HYDRATED.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR A REPRIEVE FROM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S BEFORE HIGHS
REACH THE 70S FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WE'LL BEGIN THE WEEK MAINLY DRY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS UPGRADED A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHWEST OHIO TO A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM
MARBLEHEAD TO CAREY AND POINTS WEST. THIS SEVERE THREAT IS DRIVEN
BY THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SUPPORTED BY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
(1000-1500 J/KG) GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION. EXPECT FOR
ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
MONDAY NIGHT.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL BE
LIKELY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS EITHER UNDER A SLIGHT OR MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE DELINEATION OCCURRING ALONG A
LINE FROM CORRY PA TO MOUNT GILEAD. AREAS WEST OF THIS LINE ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) AND AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THIS LINE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5). THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
AIRSPACE ON THE WARM WEST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. ELEVATED
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG WITH ANY REMAINING CUMULUS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ENTERING THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WILL PRESENT A BRIEF LLWS WINDOW FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS OF
KTOL AND KFDY. FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY, EXPECTING MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
RETURNING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS. TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME STORMS
MAY APPROACH KTOL AND KFDY BUT MOST OF THE IMPACTS ARE PROBABLY
GOING TO BE AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO ENTER THE KCLE AREA WITH THE EXTRA 6-HOURS IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
WESTERN TERMINALS MONDAY NIGHT. NON-VFR LIKELY AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE
WESTERN BASIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS DURING PEAK DIURNAL MIXING. AT THIS POINT, IT
APPEARS THAT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND THE HIGHER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED INTO THE OPEN
WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT, HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS (POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KNOTS) IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
THURSDAY. WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LIMITS LATER THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME CHOPPINESS IS LIKELY WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL APPROACH RECORD
VALUES. THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORDS FOR MAY 18 AND 19 AT LOCAL
CLIMATE SITES.
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
05-18 95(1962) 92(1962) 91(1962) 92(1962) 92(1962) 89(1889)
05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...15
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