871
FXUS61 KCLE 032331
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
731 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
..00Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10 PM EDT. THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
FOR TONIGHT HAS INCREASED TO AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT LARGE AND A
TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREA
THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
2) THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
3) COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. AN MCS IS
TAKING SHAPE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND IS GOING TO BE THE DRIVING
FEATURE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 10 PM AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.
THE MCS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. A BULLSEYE OF 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM MICHIGAN ACROSS LAKE ERIE TOWARDS CLEVELAND AND THE
NORTHEAST LAKESHORE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STRONGER WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR COLD
POOL ACCELERATION. LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND LIFT IN THE COLUMN. LATEST
CAMS DO INDICATE MORE OF A LINEAR FEATURE THAT LOOKS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN THIS CASE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER. PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OHIO RECEIVED UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING WHILE
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST PA AND ESPECIALLY ERIE COUNTY HAS RECEIVED
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS. THIS RECENT RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE FASTER TO DEVELOP.
THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF STORMS IS LESS CERTAIN, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUTE 30 IN NW OHIO. IF STORMS CAN EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH, DCAPE
VALUES ARE VERY HIGH IN THE 1200-1400 J/KG RANGE, MAKING DOWNBURSTS
VERY CONCERNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 10 PM BUT A
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT
AND SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD POSE A LOWER THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS EVENING AND LATE TONIGHT
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. ONE
SHORTWAVE COULD PASS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SECOND THROUGH
MIDDAY ON FRIDAY. SOME MODELS INDICATE THAT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA COULD DESTABILIZE AGAIN BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND
ROUND WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE
DAY, FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT HAS TRENDED SLOWER TO CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA, THUS
PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER
ROUND IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW OHIO ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO
SATURDAY NOW. THIS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME ON SATURDAY AS WE
FINALLY SEE A CAP DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY, FIRMLY TAKING HOLD OF THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE
WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE VARIABLE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING.
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR OVER NWOH TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE CONVECTION ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER
06Z OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR TOL, CLE, CAK, AND YNG. CEILINGS
WILL EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A MAY BE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN 16Z AND 21Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING WESTERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK... NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.
MARINE
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED WEST- EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LAKE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MORE STEADILY N AT 5-10
KNOTS. STRONGER NE WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2 TO 3
FEET IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS AT TIMES, AND WE MAY BE
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. LIGHTER, MAINLY E WINDS,
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ012>014-023-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...77
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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