374
FXUS61 KCLE 131833
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
233 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
FRIDAY SOUTH OF/NEAR THE 30 CORRIDOR.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH, A RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE 30 CORRIDOR, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN MARION,
MORROW, AND KNOX COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, THOUGH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE-
HALF INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT PERIOD FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES, EXTENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A HIGHLY-ANOAMLOUS MOIST AIR MASS, CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES, ENTERS THE AREA. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TRENDING THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
THREAT FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS ANY
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY FOCUS ALONG THE
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NON-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME AT LEAST LOW END VFR FOR THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS BETWEEN 3-6KFT AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING. AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT, REDUCED CONDITIONS TO LOW END MVFR TO IFR ARE LIKELY.
CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 1KFT, HOWEVER WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF FOG AND THE SHOWER POTENTIAL, ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
SEE A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES TO 2-4SM STARTING AROUND 05Z
FRIDAY THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY. AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES FRIDAY
MORNING, CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TERMINALS REBOUNDING TO VFR BY THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS FROM THE EAST-
NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
CALM MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS LAKE
ERIE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE AREA REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
KEEP WINDS VARIABLE AND UNDER 10 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY. ON
SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST WAVES ALONG THE NORTHERN
LAKESHORE BEFORE WINDS BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THIS SHIFT MAY RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING
1-3 FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS, HOWEVER GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW, NOT EXPECTING ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT
THIS POINT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AND
CALM CONDITIONS PERSIST.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN/BELPULSI
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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