709
FXUS61 KCLE 161733
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
133 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY SO HAVE DECREASED MAX/HOURLY TEMPERATURES
WITH THIS UPDATE. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE
WEATHER HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL PRODUCE POOR AIR QUALITY AND LIKELY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND LIKELY INTO FRIDAY.
2) PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
3) HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND LIKELY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HAZE/SMOKE AND
UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA,
ESPECIALLY TODAY. PARTNERING AGENCIES HAVE ISSUED AIR QUALITY
ADVISORIES FOR GROUND LEVEL FINE PARTICLES FOR TODAY, AS AIR
QUALITY WILL LIKELY BE HAZARDOUS FOR THE GENERAL POPULATION.
GIVEN THE HAZARDOUS AIR QUALITY, IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT PEOPLE
LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS TODAY. LINGERING NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAY KEEP SMOKE AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
SURFACE SMOKE GRADUALLY DECREASES IN COVERAGE AS SURFACE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EITHER WAY, IT WILL
LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME FOR SMOKE TO COMPLETELY DIMINISH ON
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY,
ALLOWING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO RETURN LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH POPS
PEAKING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY EVENING.
SHOWER COVERAGE/POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. THERE'S STILL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, BUT AT THIS
POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT SOME POINT LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO 2000-2500 J/KG (POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 3000+
J/KG) AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE 30-40+
KNOTS WHICH WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE
STABILIZATION FROM ANY EARLY DAY SHOWERS/STORMS, SO WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. STORMS MAY START OFF MORE
DISCRETE AND COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL EARLY, HOWEVER THE THREAT
WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT AS
A LINE BEGINS TO TAKE FORM SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, BUT PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
UPPER RIDGING WILL PRODUCE CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THE WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY HELP LIMIT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND POSSIBLY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NE OH AND NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID 80S AND LOWER 90S ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. DEW
POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WARMER
AREAS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER
90S SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30 DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ON
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LIKELY
INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES; LOWER COVERAGE THAN ANTICIPATED MAY
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS, WHEREAS HIGHER COVERAGE MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE ONE LAST DAY OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BEFORE A COOLER
WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITES DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA.
WIDESPREAD IFR VISIBILITY, WITH PATCHY LIFR, IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT
NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHEN THE SMOKE
WILL DISSIPATE BUT EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES TO LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
VFR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AT WESTERN TERMINALS.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY THE END OF THE TAF
WINDOW.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO CANADIAN
WILDFIRE SMOKE. NON-VFR LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS OVER LAKE ERIE WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE
SMOKE ADVISORY FOR ALL LAKE ERIE ZONES THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY. THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE FURTHER EXTENDED IN TIME WITH FUTURE
SHIFTS AS CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE LINGERS.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT EAST ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 1-3 FEET ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTH ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL
TURN ELEVATED WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AND ALLOW FOR WAVE HEIGHTS IN
NEARSHORE ZONES TO BUILD TO 2-4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO
DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON
TUESDAY LIKELY LEADING TO A WINDOW OF ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ142>149-
162>169.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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