342
FXUS61 KPBZ 261204
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
804 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE DECREASED TODAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL CONTINUES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
2) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL,
RETURNS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CROSSING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY, SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. CAPPING WARMTH ALOFT SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD PIT AND POINTS TO
THE SOUTH. ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALSO LIMIT
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT, WITH ML CAPE REACHING 500-1000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON NORTH OF PIT. IF UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO BECOME
ORGANIZED, THEN GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ENHANCED
DCAPE DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT. OTHERWISE, AFTER SOME MORNING
FOG, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR
AVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS STILL EXIST IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, MOVING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RECENT CAMS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
STILL EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
WITH BUILDING DIURNAL INSTABILITY. ML CAPE IS PROGGED TO RANGE
FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
SOME INCREASE IN 0-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED (30KT), WITH SOME DRY
MID LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL IN STORMS THAT BECOME ORGANIZED. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WIND INCREASINGLY
VEERS WITH HEIGHT.
RECENT CAMS ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL MCS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
TRACKING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT. WHILE INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT
MONDAY NIGHT, A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AN ORGANIZED MCS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IF OR WHERE ANY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
OCCUR.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN THE EXACT DEVELOPMENT, TIMING, AND
TRACKS OF ANY MCSS, WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE PREDICTABILITY UNTIL
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF
MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER, THOUGH THE LATEST ML
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHIFT THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL SEWD THROUGH
THE DAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A LAKE BREEZE,
COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF
A PHD-FKL-DUJ LINE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR
IS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CU, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE. LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
PASSING WAVE, BEFORE VFR RETURNS THURSDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK/WM
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