225
FXUS61 KPBZ 130557
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
157 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED SOME HEAT RISK HIGHLIGHTS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND WARM FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
2) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN AT THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE CURRENT PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES THE MASSIVE 500MB RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. ACTUALLY, ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS AS WELL. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO CREEP EAST BRINGING THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. BEFORE THIS, THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE RIDGE AXIS
FINALLY SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. THESE DAYS WILL BE THE WARMEST
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING MORE LIKELY TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AS THE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESS. THE
PROBABILITIES ARE OVER 70% FOR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES OR MORE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT BACK TO
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SET UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS SUCH, THIS WILL
BEGIN ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. IN FACT, THE
SPC HAS ISSUED A 15% PROB OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS IS FAVORED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME
FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO SOME LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER STABLE
CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS, AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. HAVE PUT SOME
IN THE ZZV TAF AND MAY SEE A FEW INSTANCES IN THE OTHER
TERMINALS. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE SOME FEW CU LAYERS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. A FEW INSTANCES OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH ONLY
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG NEAR DAWN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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