223
FXUS61 KPBZ 131711
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL MESSAGING OF MID WEEK HEAT RISKS
AND LATE WEEK TO WEEKEND STORM WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURE PEAKING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD POSE HEAT
RISKS, ESPECIALLY TO SENSITIVE POPULATIONS.
2) PENDING FINER DETAILS, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE HEIGHT RISES THROUGH MID
WEEK ABOVE PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AS IT SITS BETWEEN
A NEW ENGLAND TROUGH AND CUTOFF GULF LOW. CURRENT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE WILL RISE INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE BY TUESDAY AND
APPROACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS TREND
FROM APPROXIMATELY 17 DEGREES C CURRENTLY TO APPROXIMATELY 22
DEGREES C. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS HEAT WAVE WHERE DEWPOINTS STAYED
INTO THE MID 70S, THIS PERIOD IS LIKELY TO SEE DEWPOINTS
STAYING LESS THAN 72 DEGREES (NEAR 90% PROBABILITY) AND YIELD A
"LESS HUMID" FEEL. THOUGH EXTREME HEAT CRITERIA (110 DEGREE OR
HIGHER HEAT INDICES) WON'T BE ACHIEVED, HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY
EXCEED 100 WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE MOST-LIKELY DAY. CONFIDENCE
IN 3+ HOURS OF THESE CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA REMAIN
TOO LOW FOR PRODUCT ISSUANCE (CAUSED BY ENOUGH VARIABILITY IN
AFTERNOON DEW POINT READINGS), BUT THE POTENTIAL REMAINS.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A HEAT HEADLINE IS ISSUED OR NOT,
INDIVIDUALS (ESPECIALLY HEAT-SENSITIVE POPULATIONS) ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD AGAIN PREPARE FOR ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS THAT
POSE HEIGHTENED RISKS FOR HEAT STRESS OR OTHER HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES. IF YOU PLAN ON ENGAGING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR
WORK, PLAN TO TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND ENSURE OF PROPER
HYDRATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLE MODELS FAVOR SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND
TROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, CAUSING
THE RIDGE TO RETREAT BACK WEST. WHILE TEMPERATURE SLOWLY FALLS
TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS, THIS SHIFT RESULTS IN INCREASED
LIFT DURING PERIODS OF SHORTWAVE PASSAGE OVER A REGION THAT
REMAINS WARM, MOST THAT GENERALLY LENDS TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
THERE REMAINS ARE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TIMING/FAVORED PERIODS FOR
THE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO VARIABILITY IN THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TIMING. SPREAD IN THIS FEATURE ALSO LENDS TO
VARIABILITY IN THE POTENTIAL STORM ENVIRONMENTAL DETAILS,
MEANING LITTLE CAN REALLY BE ASSESSED AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR
PATTERNS IN THE PAST HAVE YIELDED SEVERE WEATHER, SO THE THREAT
FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXISTS BUT IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE DAYS
BEFORE MORE CLARITY ARRIVES FOR THREAT ASSESSMENTS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS IS FAVORED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. CUMULUS CLOUDS POSSIBLE DURING
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TOMORROW. ONLY CHANCE FOR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS WOULD OCCUR WITH ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
MORNING. ZZV, HLG, BVI, AND FKL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR
FOG WHICH IS INDICATED BY THE TEMPOS.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH ONLY
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG NEAR DAWN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...LUPO
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