225
FXUS61 KPBZ 241117
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
717 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL FORECAST AND MESSAGE REMAINS UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WITH DRY WEATHER HIGHLY LIKELY UNTIL
AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT PERSISTENT
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK (IF NOT LONGER). THIS WILL GUARANTEE
DRY, SUNNY, AND WARM CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
BELOW 10% THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
UNCERTAINTY IN RIDGE PLACEMENT AND TROUGH MOVEMENT GROWS BY LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES GENERALLY NEVER EXCEED 50%
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, SUGGESTING RAIN LIKELY CONFINED TO ONE
PERIOD (RATHER THAN MULTIPLE ROUNDS) WITH MODELS UNCERTAIN WHICH
OF FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY SEES THE BEST CHANCE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT
E/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY
IMPACT ISOLATED SITES (FKL/HLG) WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY
THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK... OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS
HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY
AVIATION...CL
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