417
FXUS61 KPBZ 011338
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
938 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD, OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS RETURN WITH A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.
2) COOLER AND MAINLY DRY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST REMAINS IN PLACE BUT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST- SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
THE NOW CLOSED LOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NOW OPENS AND EJECTS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE REGION ENTERING THE
UPPER OH VALLEY TONIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE FRONT ATTEMPTING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE RAINFALL THREAT WILL
NOT BE IMPACTFUL AS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN LESSING OR HOLDING ON
PRECIP AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25" AND 0.50 ON TOTAL RAINFALL. THE NBM
SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TOO CONCERNING AS THE
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING ONLY 0.50" WILL BE BETWEEN 30% AND
50% ACROSS THE AREA. AS WELL, THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WILL BE MINIMAL AS EVEN THE NBM
GIVES A 10% CHANCE OF EVEN REACHING 500 J/KG OF SB CAPE. EVEN
THE PROB THUNDER FOR THIS PERIOD IS ONLY BETWEEN 10% TO 15%.
THUS, NOTHING IS WORTH MENTIONING IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD PERSIST
ACROSS THE NE CONUS FROM THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
AREAS SOUTH OF PIT ON SUNDAY, OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER THE BROAD TROUGH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PREVAILING VFR ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
GENERALLY FROM KPIT NORTHWARD. WIND WILL BE FROM THE SSW AROUND
10KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15KTS POSSIBLE.
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT'S APPROACH VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
(FRIDAY MORNING) SO VFR SHOULD CONTINUE. ONLY KPIT HAS THE START
OF RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-70 SUNDAY, WITH
PROLONGED VFR FORECAST THEREAFTER, OUTSIDE OF FOG.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...34/SHALLENBERGER
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