483
FXUS61 KPBZ 072303
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
703 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGE 1 AND AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PASSING TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY RETURNS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
TODAY AND TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES, SUPPORTED BY DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF A TROUGH.
LONG-RANGE MODELS DEPICT A PATTERN CHANGE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TRACKING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND ALLOW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW RETURNS, WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER-60S
AND RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY MUGGY CONDITIONS. HEAT INDEX
VALUES COULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
A FEW AREAS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS CURRENTLY AROUND 5%-15%. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LATER
TIMING FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH MAY DECREASE THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE PROLONGED PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ON THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN ISOLATED FLOODING NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS. SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THIS
PERIOD.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE EXIT OF THE COLD
FRONT AND A BUILDING RIDGE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD IMPACT FKL EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE THIS QUICKLY MIXES OUT AFTER SUNRISE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING CIRRUS ABOVE.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNS
FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, BEFORE A CROSSING DISTURBANCE BRING
A LOW CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS ON SATURDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/LUPO
AVIATION...WM
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