457
FXUS61 KPBZ 071135
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GUSTY WIND AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT.
EXISTING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE COULD IMPACT
THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. ML CAPE
IS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 1000-1750 J/KG, DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
SURFACE HEATING WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. 0-6KM SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, AROUND
30KT. HREF INDICATES A DCAPE BETWEEN 600 AND 800 J/KG, WITH A
POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT. GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY OF
THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. ML DOES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL. PWATS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 1.8 INCHES. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.
THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING AS
DIURNAL INSTABILITY DIMINISHES, THOUGH AND ADDITIONAL VORT MAX
WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH COULD MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE.
AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR PART OF THE DAY, A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY,
WITH BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE STRONGER SATURDAY
SHORTWAVE. DRY AIR AND SOME CAPPING SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.
THE BROAD TROUGH IS REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING. CURRENTLY, ML INDICATES A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE DETAILS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA TO START THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, THOUGH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO. STILL,
INTRODUCED MENTION OF RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS DURING MORNING
HOURS TO REFLECT THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE WE ARE SEEING OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO. MAINTAINED TEMPOS FOR ALL AREA AIRPORTS FOR
THE MOST LIKELY TIME WINDOW OF THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY, THOUGH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE EXCEPTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY, WHEN SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY BRINGS
DRY WEATHER. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY/EVENING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK/WM
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