028
FXUS61 KPBZ 141232
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE NUDGED NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EARLY MORNING FLURRIES NORTH, THEN DRY AND WARMER TODAY
2) RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY MIX IN THE RIDGES
3) WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN NY AND
CENTRAL PA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS TO THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR
PERSISTING IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW CHANCES
LOW. INCLUDED SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80 AS
THIS TROUGH CROSSES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING, WITH READINGS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY, AS A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE SE
CONUS. A SURFACE LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER
MS AND TN VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY, WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE MODEL
INDICATED INCREASED PHASING OF THESE WAVES HAS RESULTED IN A
NORTHWARD TREND TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN, THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE RIDGES WHERE ENOUGH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD OCCUR TO RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN IN COLDER
LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF PIT, THOUGH AT THIS
TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN SHOULD OCCUR AFTER TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AREAS SOUTH OF I-68 HAVE
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THE
PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK, WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH PERIODIC
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY
NEAR OR ABOVE 60 FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 422. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AS WELL, LEADING TO INCREASED SNOW MELT AND RIVER ICE DECAY.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT COLDER TEMPERATURES COULD RETURN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A CROSSING TROUGH.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) AREA-WIDE VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
2) INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR AND RAIN ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
------------------------------------------------------------
VFR IS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA TO START THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ONLY
SOME PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. KEPT MVFR AS A TEMPO AT DUJ DUE
TO THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS, HOWEVER, CEILINGS WILL LIFT ABOVE
3KFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT BY MID-MORNING, GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND
JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY
MORNING, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP, STARTING IN EASTERN OHIO.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION, HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY
TO BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE
REGION (MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80).
THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS DEPARTING THE REGION AND THE LLWS THREAT
WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AT THIS TIME,
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. BY TONIGHT,
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHILE REMAINING LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS COULD LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN PA
INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE AREAWIDE VFR RETURNS LATER IN THE
DAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK/LUPO
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