894
FXUS61 KPBZ 291147
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
747 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH DAWN.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE HEAT RISK BY MID WEEK. UPDATED
FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUS HEAT MID TO LATE WEEK.
2) POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRINGS THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR
SO FAR, NOT RECORD BREAKING WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT
A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BREAKING WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AT SEVERAL
SITES WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY. THE HOTTEST WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER 90S WILL
BE COMMON, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE
IN THE 70S DURING THIS STRETCH, ADDING TO THE HEAT RISK
CONCERNS.
CONCERNING HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES, TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY SHOW PERSISTENT VALUES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA. ENSEMBLES
HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SOME WARNING CRITERIA FOR WED AND THU.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH ON MOISTURE AND MAINTAINS
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS EVEN DURING AFTERNOON HOURS,
LEADING TO HEAT INDICES CLIMBING ABOVE 105F IN SOME SPOTS. WHILE
THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY (PARTICULARLY IN
URBAN AREAS LOCATED RIGHT ALONG MAJOR RIVERS), HISTORICALLY
SPEAKING IT IS DIFFICULT FOR THIS REGION TO SEE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS THAT HIGH (E.G.,
PITTSBURGH HAS SEEN A TEMPERATURE OF 95F AND DEWPOINT OF 75F OR
GREATER ONLY 4 TIMES SINCE 1952). THUS, THE CURRENT LINE OF
THINKING IS THAT THE MODELED DEWPOINTS ARE A TAD HIGH AND WILL
END UP VERIFYING IN PERHAPS THE MID 60S DURING PEAK HEATING EACH
AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD HELP KEEP WIDESPREAD APPARENT
TEMPERATURES BELOW 105F AND THUS PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR EXTREME
HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS.
IN ADDITION, HEAT RISK WILL BE IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY (LEVEL 3
OUT OF 4) WITH AN EXTREME HEAT RISK (LEVEL 4 OUT OF 4) FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND DEPENDING ON
THUNDERSTORM AND/OR CLOUD COVER, FRIDAY. HOWEVER, SINCE 2005,
PITTSBURGH HAS NOT VERIFIED AN EXTREME HEAT RISK, SO WE WILL SEE
IF THE DEWPOINT FORECAST TRENDS A SMIDGE LOWER, WHICH WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THIS INDEX. A QUICK REFRESHER, NWS HEAT RISK IS A
COLOR-NUMERIC BASED INDEX THAT USES HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER,
CLIMATE, AND CDC HEAT-HEALTH DATA TO IDENTIFY POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HEAT.
IT IS ALSO GOOD TO POINT OUT THAT A BIG DRIVER OF IMPACTS TO
PEOPLE IN HEAT WAVES ARE THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS IS
BECAUSE PEOPLE CAN'T COOL OFF AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT
AIR CONDITIONERS. IF YOU HAVE FRIENDS OR FAMILY THAT ARE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ELDERLY, OR WITHOUT AC, PLEASE CHECK ON THEM
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE CSU MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE
REGION. GRANTED THIS IS FAR DOWN THE ROAD, BUT WHEN WE HAVE A
HEAT WAVE, TYPICALLY THERE IS A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT
ENDS IT WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING AND THE WESTERLIES DRIVING A
WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH. ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT IN
A STOUT SIGNAL BY FRIDAY. AS OF NOW, THE PROBABILITIES ARE
LARGELY IN THE 15%-30% RANGE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VARYING DEGREES OF FOG COVERAGE ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING. FOG EXPANSION LIKELY ENDS HERE SHORTLY WITH THE
SUN RISING AND IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY 14Z, WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY 15Z. A SCT VFR STRATOCU
FIELD IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.
CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BUT CAN RETURN AS ANOTHER VFR
STRATOCU FIELD ON TUESDAY AS WINDS RISE TO 5-10 KTS FROM THE SW.
OUTLOOK... MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AND CAPPING WARMTH ALOFT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 93/1964
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 72 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 71 RECORD: 74/1933
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 72 RECORD: 74/1934
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 96/1991
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
WHEELING WV FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 75/1901
MORGANTOWN WV FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 71/2014
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/1913
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
NEW PHILADELPHIA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 95/1966
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 97/1931
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
WHEELING WV FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 73/2018
MORGANTOWN WV FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 73/2018
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1903
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 71/1903
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 77/1903
MORGANTOWN WV FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 77 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1898
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 78/1935
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AK
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