602
FXUS61 KPBZ 260602
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 1 AS NOR'EASTER WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR
06Z TAF PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM A NOR'EASTER. AREAS CLOSEST TO THE
APPALACHIAN RIDGE WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY UP IN THE CLARION AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
PA AREAS. EASTERN OHIO WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REMAIN
DRY. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, DAYTIMES HIGHS DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO PICK UP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE POLO, MUCH OF THE HEAVIER RAIN
THREAT IS LIKELY TO STAY WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS OF NOW, THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAINS
BETWEEN 30%-40% WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND INCREASES TO
30-50% FRIDAY. PROBABILITY OF 24 HOUR QPF >=0.10" WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IS 10-20%, INCREASING TO 20-30% THURSDAY AND 40-50%
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A NOR'EASTER OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS
NEW JERSEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MAINTAINING NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY. DIURNAL
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE GUSTS OF 15-25KTS, PRIMARILY
AT TERMINALS EAST OF PIT WHERE STRONGER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
ARE EXPECTED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW.
BECAUSE OF STRONGER FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE DRIFTING WEST ON
THE PERIPHERY OF EAST COAST STORM, FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER
LATE TONIGHT AND LLWS IS EXPECTED AT KDUJ AND IS POSSIBLE AT
KLBE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY - POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG FOR ZZV/MGW. LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON EASTERN AIRPORTS WITH
20-50% CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND 40% CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FKL DUJ LBE.
MONDAY- VFR.
TUESDAY- VFR.
WEDNESDAY- VFR.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CRAVEN
AVIATION...CRAVEN
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