479
FXUS61 KPBZ 042046
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
446 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAVE BOTH BEEN
CANCELED. THE REMAINDER OF THE FRIDAY DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE
DRY. UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/LOCATION OF ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION REMAINS, BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY
SOUTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRY WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR AND ERODED INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH ALONG WITH THE WARMER AIR AND LEFT
US WITH SOME REMNANT CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO FIRE TO
OUR NORTHWEST AND RIDE INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. RUN TO RUN CAMS
STILL LARGELY ADVERTISE THIS ACTIVITY TO SOME DEGREE BUT REMAIN
INCONSISTENT ON TIMING AND COVERAGE, SO UNCERTAINTY DOES
REMAIN. THE DEEPER MOISTURE/HIGHER PWAT AIR STARTS TO GET
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH TIME TONIGHT AS THE EAST
COAST TROUGH STARTS TO DIG AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY GAINS A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT, BUT VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED IN EASTERN OHIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SEVERE THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN COMBINE COLD POOLS AND PRESENT A
CONTINUED WIND THREAT. BUT, A STABILIZING NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST SEVERE WEATHER AND LEAVE PRIMARILY A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
BY THE TIME STORMS DEPART TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING, THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF (REALLY A DEW POINT GRADIENT) SHOULD BEGIN
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. INSTABILITY PROGS AND
MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD
BE LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER AIR AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH
OF PITTSBURGH WHILE FLOW HAS GONE NORTHERLY FROM PHD TO PIT TO
LBE. THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT QUICKLY CUTS OFF SOUTH OF PIT
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE THUNDER POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW FROM THERE
AND NORTH WHILE WE'LL KEEP THE THUNDER CHANCE FOR MGW AND ZZV
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. FOR THAT REASON, HAVE REMOVED THE
THUNDER MENTION FOR ALL BUT THOSE TWO SITES WHERE TEMPOS WERE
MAINTAINED. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT SCT TO BKN CIGS AROUND 1.5-2.5KFT
WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW.
MODELS FAVOR A DRY PERIOD AFTER SUNSET AND THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIP REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN OH AND
POTENTIALLY CLIPPING PARTS OF NORTHERN WV. FOR ANY SITES THAT
ARE ABLE TO SEE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AND WIND GO LIGHT
TO CALM, SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH A SATURATED GROUND.
TOMORROW, LOW CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO STICK AROUND DURING THE
DAY AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES SOUTHWARD. RESTRICTIONS FORECAST
TO LIFT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
A HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND CREATING DRY CONDITIONS AND NO
RESTRICTIONS FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MLB/CL
AVIATION...MLB/LUPO
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