911
FXUS61 KPBZ 240550
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
150 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL FORECAST MESSAGING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE NEXT
IMPACTFUL WEATHER PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURE
SLOWLY RISES BACK TOWARD DAILY AVERAGES.
2) MOSTLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY, WITH SOME LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
DEPENDING ON FUTURE MODEL TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST. THOUGH
COLD CORE PROCESSES UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH PLUS A WEAK
EMBEDDED MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER NORTH OF
I-80, THE START OF HEIGHT RISES WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FAVORS DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW THE DAILY AVERAGE. FOR REFERENCE, THE FORECASTED HIGH OF
70 AT THE PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WOULD BE TIED FOR THE
10TH LOWEST HIGH ON RECORD FOR THE CALENDAR DAY AND THE LOWEST
SINCE 1997 (68 DEGREES). THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AS HEIGHT
RISES THROUGH WEDNESDAY RETURN READINGS BACK TO THE DAILY
AVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY HIGH AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, CREATING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL STORM ENVIRONMENT, BUT
SCENARIOS DO EXIST FOR ENOUGH CAPE (1000+ J/KG) AND SHEAR
(25-30KTS) TO SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT CENTERED
AROUND DAMAGING WINDS.
AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES, GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST ANOTHER FEW DAYS
OF DRY WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE/HEIGHT RISES
BEFORE HINTING AT A MORE ACTIVE (MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS) PATTERN STARTING AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE COMBINATION OF NIGHTTIME RAIN AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF STRATUS/FOG TO DEVELOP (FAVORING
FKL/DUJ/MGW) THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
OTHERWISE, VFR IS FAVORED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS AS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CU
DEVELOPS AFTER 14Z WITH DIURNAL HEATING. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
OUT OF THE WEST GENERALLY HOVER BETWEEN 15-20KTS, WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF TOUCHING 25KTS.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE THURSDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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