799
FXUS61 KPBZ 112338
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
638 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE PA RIDGES AND NOW ENCOMPASSES ALL OF OUR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING AND RESULT IN POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL WITH SUB-FREEZING ROAD TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WAVES OF LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS LEADING TO GENERALLY SUB-
ADVISORY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO THURSDAY.
2) SHIFT IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS A DRY OUTLOOK FOR THE LATE
WEEKEND PERIOD, BUT RAIN AND LOW PROBABILITY FREEZING RAIN COULD
STILL OCCUR AMID A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR LAKE-
ENHANCED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF SCATTERED OPEN
AREAS OF BOTH LAKE ERIE AND HURON. THIS PAIRED WITH JET-STREAK
INDUCED LIFT AND CONTINUED 850MB COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND ROAD
ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN LARGELY UNLIKELY. ALONG THE PA/WV RIDGES,
UPSLOPE WIND ANGLES PROMOTE THE POSSIBILITY OF 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT MODEL SLRS MAY BE TOO HIGH OWING TO RECENT
COLD BIASES IN MODEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS (THAT WERE BLATANTLY
EXPOSED WITH YESTERDAY'S HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES)
AND A LACK OF GREAT MOISTURE OR LIFT IN THE DGZ. DESPITE THESE
CONCERNS, A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL TRAVEL ISSUES AND ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO COME TOGETHER IN SHOWING A SOUTHERN TRACK
FOR THE UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
TN RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. SOME VARIANCE STILL REMAINS IN
EXACT PLACEMENT AND SPEED (WITH THE GEFS REMAINING BOTH FURTHER
SOUTH AND SLOWER).
THE "WILL PRECIPITATION EVEN OCCUR" SCENARIO REMAINS THE
HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO
PAINT QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION (MAINLY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH) THE 50TH PERCENTILES REMAIN FAR DRIER WITH THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND MEAN OUTPUTS BEING
LARGELY DRIVEN BY HIGH OUTLIERS. AT THIS TIME, REASONABLE DRIER
SCENARIOS HAVE THE NORTHERNMOST EDGE OF RAIN NEAR CHARLESTON,
WV. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS BUT WE MAY SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECLINE FURTHER IN THE COMING DAYS.
WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE MILD AHEAD OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND QUESTIONABLE THERMAL
PROFILES MAKE SNOW LOOK UNLIKELY WITH RAIN BEING THE FAVORED
PRECIPITATION TYPE. WITH QPF VALUES DECREASING THE RISK OF
WIDESPREAD MECHANICAL ICE BREAKUP AND ENSUING ICE JAM ISSUES
LOOKS TO BE DECREASING AS WELL. OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SOME
LEVEL OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK PROMOTING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. A CONTINUED MILD SPELL
WITH LOW QPF WOULD BE THE BEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO IN TERMS OF
MINIMIZING ICE JAM ISSUES, ALLOWING FOR A SLOWER THERMAL BREAKUP
WITH SOME ROTTING OR MELTING OF ICE IN PLACE. THESE SCENARIOS
MAY LOWER BUT DO NOT ELIMINATE THE RISK OF ICE JAM ISSUES IN THE
COMING WEEKS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) WIDESPREAD MVFR THROUGH THURSDAY
2) LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT EAST OF A PHD-MGW LINE
------------------------------------------------------------
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SUPPORT A BLANKET OF MVFR LOW STRATUS
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. WITH SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ELS INTO
THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WEAK LIFT IN A
MODESTLY UNSTABLE PROFILE, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. THUS
FAR, THESE HAVE DONE LITTLE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY WITH ONLY SOME
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS <6SM AT FKL/DUJ/LBE WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
FROM THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE FLOW, RESPECTIVELY, PROMOTE BETTER
RATES. EXPECT THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
FURTHER ENHANCEMENT IN COVERAGE AS UPPER JET DYNAMICS SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF BETTER SYNOPTIC LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT, SO HAVE CARRIED
6SM WITH LIGHT SNOW AT ALL SITES SAVE ZZV AND PROB30S FOR MVFR
VIS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT UP TO 20 KNOTS.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT EVENTUALLY
SHUT OFF OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPING IN THE RIDGES AS THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE SHALLOWS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. HAVE KEPT IN
-SN MENTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR MOST TERMINALS, BUT
THE TREND THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE FOR LESS COVERAGE. DRIER
AIR BUILDS FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER CEILINGS, BUT PROBABILITY
FOR MVFR REMAINS 70+% THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY ERODES BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN OR SNOW SUNDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE SE CONUS. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS SOUTH OF A PHD-PIT-LBE LINE. IMPROVEMENT
WITH ANY RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED MONDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MLB/AK
AVIATION...RACKLEY/MLB
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