821
FXUS61 KPBZ 251840
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
140 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
2) EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY
3) PROLONGED COLD CONDITIONS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A HISTORIC
SNOWFALL EVENT; SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 9 TO
18 INCHES. AS OF NOON TODAY, WE'VE ALREADY HAD SNOWFALL REPORTS
AS HIGH AS 13" DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW BANDS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS OVER EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR AREAS SOUTH I-70, A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ARE ONGOING. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE MAY LEAD TO POWER
OUTAGES AND DOWN TREE BRANCHES IN THIS REGION. THERE ARE ALREADY
A FEW NOTED COUNTIES IN CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA WITHOUT POWER. THE
POTENTIAL FOR WET SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY
END BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVANCING.
SNOWFALL RATES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 11PM
TONIGHT TO 2AM MONDAY AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVANCES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST.
A PASSING SHORTWAVE MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS; AN ADDITIONAL INCH MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE SNOW SQUALL
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THE MOMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH AND 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR -20 CELSIUS LATE MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP NEAR ZERO.
WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP AS LOW AS
-25F. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH IS IN EFFECT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3... PROLONGED COLD CONDITIONS
LONG-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS BELOW-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO EARLY TO MID-FEBRUARY AS A LARGE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEST COAST. WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE MID TO LOWER TEENS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
IMPACTS TO REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE ARE INCREASING LIKELY,
PARTICULARLY FROZEN PIPES. ADDITIONALLY, ICE DEVELOPMENT ON
MAINSTREAM RIVERS AND SMALLER TRIBUTARIES IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE, WITH ICE THICKNESS BECOMING MORE SIGNIFICANT IN EARLY
FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM TODAY WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, AND PROLONGED IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS
2) WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY FOR MGW, POSSIBLE FOR LBE
------------------------------------------------------------
A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION, AND A
WINTRY MIX FOR LBE AND MGW. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TRACK
FROM ERN KY THROUGH NRN WV BY EVENING. FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED
TO PERSIST ACROSS OH INTO PA, LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
IS LIKELY IN THE RESULTING ENHANCED SNOW BAND. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT AIRPORT OPERATIONS. IN ADDITION, PROLONGED
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE MGW COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIX INTO THE AFTERNOON,
WITH LBE SEEING A POTENTIAL FOR SLEET. ANY MIX SHOULD QUICKLY
CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON IN COLD ADVECTION AS
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
SNOWFALL RATES WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST, THOUGH IFR IN SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING
WITH A CROSSING UPPER TROUGH. A FEW SQUALLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
A CROSSING COLD FRONT. CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
WEDNESDAY UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN SNOW AND RESTRICTION POTENTIAL THURSDAY. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY UNDER A CROSSING UPPER
TROUGH.
CLIMATE
A WINTER STORM AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL CHALLENGE SOME
AREA RECORDS FOR DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL, DAILY COLD
TEMPERATURES, AND DURATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES. VARIOUS
SNOWFALL AND COLD RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
PITTSBURGH TOP DAILY SNOWFALL OF ALL TIME:
1) 23.6" - MARCH 13TH, 1993
2) 22.0" - DECEMBER 17TH, 1890
3) 16.5" - JANUARY 8TH, 1884
4) 16.3" - MARCH 3RD, 1942
5) 15.0" - MARCH 5TH, 1902
6) 12.7" - APRIL 3RD, 1901
7) 12.5" - MARCH 3RD, 1960
T7) 12.5" - NOVEMBER 9TH, 1913
9) 12.4" - JANUARY 4TH, 1994
10) 12.0" - JANUARY 22ND, 1966
PITTSBURGH TOP DAILY SNOWFALL OF ALL TIME IN JANUARY:
1) 16.5" - JANUARY 8TH, 1884
2) 12.4" - JANUARY 4TH, 1994
3) 12.0" - JANUARY 22ND, 1966
4) 11.2" - JANUARY 3RD, 1914
5) 11.0" - JANUARY 13TH, 1964
PITTSBURGH TOP DAILY SNOWFALL THIS CENTURY:
1) 11.4" - FEBRUARY 5TH, 2010
2) 9.7" - FEBRUARY 6TH, 2010
3) 9.3" - DECEMBER 16TH, 2020
4) 8.8" - FEBRUARY 16TH, 2003
5) 8.7" - MARCH 21ST, 2018
PITTSBURGH DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR:
JANUARY 24TH: 7.5" - 1899
JANUARY 25TH: 5.2" - 2014
JANUARY 26TH: 4.3" - 2015
DAILY COLD RECORDS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN:
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH (1/24 DAILY LOW RECORD) - 14F (1963)
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMP BELOW <=25F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 15 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 3RD, 1961
2) 12 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 6TH, 2018
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 26TH, 1989
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 19TH, 1958
5) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 16TH, 1958
T5) 11 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MINIMUM TEMP <=10F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 14 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
T1) 14 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 17TH, 1912
3) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 24TH, 1989
T3) 11 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 13TH, 1981
5) 10 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 21ST, 2015
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-509>514.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...WM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page