942
FXUS61 KPBZ 281728
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
128 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY.
2) BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS ARE NOW EAST OF THE RIDGES AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE LARGELY SUGGESTS WARM AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT KEEPS A LID ON ANY CONVECTION.
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK NORTH UP THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT, WITH THE SURFACE LOW
PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST CROSSING JUST SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AFTER
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN
LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES, BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH FROM MID-
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW- LEVEL JET AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30%
PROBABILITY OF >500 J/KG CAPE AND 10% PROBABILITY OF >1000 J/KG
CAPE (LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, THOUGH AN OVERLY
AMBITIOUS STORM COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN THE SHEAR
PROFILE. SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTH OF I-70.
BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 0.9" TO 1.5" ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. GIVEN RECENT GREEN-UP AND DRIER
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MOSTLY QUEST WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES, THE MAIN
STORY FOR THAT PERIOD WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DEEP GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE COLD ADVECTION
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS. PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 37F PEAK AT
90% FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH SATURDAY MORNING,
BUT REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 45% EVERY WHERE EXCEPT IMMEDIATE
RIVER VALLEYS. FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR STILL REMAINS THE RULE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COINCIDENT
WITH DRIER AIR INTRUSION. SHOULD SEE THE CIG RESTRICTIONS BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT WITH THAT AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ERODING THE MOISTURE. THAT SAID, FKL/DUJ/LBE MAY CONTINUE
TO HAVE CIG RESTRICTIONS INTO THE EVENING WITH REMNANT MOISTURE
LINGERING. DEW POINTS AREN'T EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, SO PROVIDED WIND GOES LIGHT ENOUGH, WE
COULD SEE SOME FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 07Z, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT SAW THE MOST RAIN TODAY (EAST OF PITTSBURGH). GUIDANCE
IS WAFFLING BETWEEN LOW STRATUS AND FOG, AND SOME SOUNDINGS
KEEP JUST ENOUGH SHALLOW MIXING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY LIMIT
FOG DEVELOPMENT, HAVE BEGUN TO TREND DOWN WITH RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE EVALUATING THROUGH THE
EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES, LOW CIGS (ELEVATED IFR PROBABILITY), AND LOW VIS
ARE LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDER PROBABILITY LIES AROUND 30% WITH THIS BATCH OF RAIN, SO
HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP FOR -TSRA IN THE MORNING. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WIND MAY
DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW LINE WITH HIGHEST CHANCE AT MGW BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AND DEPENDENT ON THE
EXTENT OF SCATTERING IN THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/88
AVIATION...MLB
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