259
FXUS61 KPBZ 040533
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
133 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY APPEARS TO HAVE
SHIFTED TO EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN ANOTHER WAVE OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. A COLD FRONT BRINGS DRY
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE STRONG RIDGING THAT HAS SAT ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THIS WEEK WEAKENS AND BEGINS SHIFTING BACK WEST OVER THE PLAINS
IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN CANADA ATLANTIC COAST. THIS DOESN'T CHANGE THE PATTERN
OVER THE LOCAL AREA MUCH AS WE REMAIN LOCKED BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES UNDER DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW.
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY FORMING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ARE
FORECAST TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE/MCS AND ADVANCE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE LOCAL AREA EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ACCORDING TO TIMING
IN THE LATEST CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODEL RUNS. IF THAT TIMING
ENDS UP VERIFYING, IT'LL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY
AND STORMS WILL THEREFORE CARRY ANOTHER RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL (HIGHLIGHTED BY ANOTHER STORM PREDICTION CENTER
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER -- LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 -- FOR THE
LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY).
AS THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO FIRE UPSTREAM OVER THE
MICHIGAN LP AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THAT WAVE IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
WHILE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND EVEN SOME DRY AIR ALOFT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND GUST AND HAIL THREAT. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE SECOND ROUND MAKES IT, AS
THE RIDGE SHOULD BE RETREATING TO THE WEST AT THAT POINT AND
DEEP-LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE NNWERLY. SOME CAMS
SUGGEST THAT CAUSES THE FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTION TO DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO, STAYING MOSTLY TO OUR WEST. WILL NEED TO
SEE HOW THE DAY EVOLVES BEFORE GAINING CONFIDENCE IN THAT TRACK
AND WHERE IMPACTS MAY BE FELT.
BY THE TIME STORMS DEPART TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING, A COLD
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. BEHIND THE
FRONT, DRIER AIR AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A NARROW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE BVI/PIT/AGC
AREA TO START THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL IMPACT LBE WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ASIDE FROM THAT, DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
PLACES THAT ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT AND PLACES THAT SAW THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS.
HEADING INTO THE DAY TOMORROW, ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO
POTENTIALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY DURING EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. HAVE USED A FEW PROB30S IN THE 16Z TO 22Z TIMEFRAME FOR
RESTRICTIONS GETTING BELOW IFR IN MOST CASES. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXPECT FOR AREAS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS THE CHANCE OF MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL
PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN ADDITION TO ANY FOG
DEVELOPING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK
AVIATION...CERMAK
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