652
FXUS61 KPBZ 192303
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
703 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IN A SOAKING RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO INCREASE. ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE HWO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
2) MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST CONUS TODAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS - GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING TODAY MAY BE ABLE TO
SPARK ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, WITH MOISTURE APPEARING TO BE
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFTS FOR ANY LIGHTNING
GENERATION. THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH AN
AFTERNOON MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WEAK LOW-LEVEL WSW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A
MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING INTO
THE 0.9-1.0 INCH RANGE PER HREF/REFS. ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION, WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS MORE SUGGESTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THAN TODAY.
STILL, WITH FAIRLY SKINNY AND MODEST CAPE PROFILES
(PROBABILITIES OF 750 J/KG OR GREATER AT 25 TO 30 PERCENT OR
LESS), SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LOW CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PERIOD OF RIDGING IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES FURTHER EAST LATE IN THE
DAY, THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS
WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RISING INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE,
PERHAPS INTO THE 90TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE LEVEL. THERE REMAINS A
BIT OF VARIANCE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE POSITION OF THE
WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, THERE DOES SEEM TO BE BROAD CONSENSUS THAT
A SOAKING RAIN IS IN THE CARDS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
CURRENT PROBABILITY OF 1.5 INCH OF RAIN IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
ENDING AT 12Z TUESDAY RANGES FROM 50 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NBM OUTPUT. PROBABILITIES FOR
2 INCHES ARE NOTABLE AS WELL, REACHING AROUND 30 PERCENT OVER A
GOOD AREA. THUS, THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED FLOODING
ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
MACHINE LEARNING OUTPUT INDICATES SOME MODEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH HIGHER RISKS REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, WHERE
AVAILABLE BUOYANCY IS LIKELY TO BE GREATER. THIS THREAT HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE HWO.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PROBABILITY IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DIURNAL CU
THINS SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE BEFORE DEVELOPING AGAIN BETWEEN
14Z-16Z SATURDAY AS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CU.
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY MAY YIELD
PERIODS OF HIGHER CIRRUS OVERNIGHT BEFORE PROVIDING ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 17Z-00Z.
LIMITED BUOYANCY KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING LOW, PRECLUDING
TAF MENTION, BUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE
LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO KEEPS RISK FOR RAIN-INDUCED
RESTRICTIONS LOW.
OUTLOOK...
PENDING RAIN OCCURRENCE SATURDAY, LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG OR
LOWER STRATUS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS CALM AND
CLOUDS CLEAR.
OTHERWISE, PROBABILITIES FAVOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (LOW PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORMS) RESULTING IN
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AS A DEEPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW COMBO
TRAVELS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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