931
FXUS61 KPBZ 211105
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
705 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED COVERING PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THROUGH 9AM THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST MESSAGING IS
UNCHANGED. UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE
FOG THAT IMPACTS THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE.
2) DEPENDENT ON ONSET TIMING, DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP
WITH THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME RAINFALL AND CLEAR SKIES IS THE MAIN
DRIVERS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, SUBTLE EASTERLY WINDS AND POTENTIALLY
SOME DRY ADVECTION WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS TO BE
DISRUPTING THAT PROCESS ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST FOG WITHIN SELECT
RIVER VALLEYS AND MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD. WHILE THERE MAY
BE VARIATIONS IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, THE CONDITIONS ARE
IDEAL ENOUGH THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH 9AM
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OH THROUGH WESTERN PA.
AREA FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING COMMENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HI-RES MODELING HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF SUPPRESSING MOST
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THANKS TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH; ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
MAY BE ALONG THE EASTWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/WV HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY INDUCE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR ISOLATED INITIATION.
THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON A SHORTWAVE THAT ACTS TO DEEPEN UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
DRIVING A COLD FRONT WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY HIGH ON THE POTENTIAL STORM ENVIRONMENT TO FEATURE AROUND
1500 J/KG CAPE, AROUND 850 J/KG DCAPE, AND WEAK SHEAR THAT WOULD
BE CONDUCIVE TO A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINAL, THOUGH, AS
THIS THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON STORMS (AND TO AN EXTENT, THE
FRONT) ARRIVING EARLY ENOUGH TO TAP INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES; I.E. THE THREAT IS MORE LIKELY TO
MATERIALIZE IF THE SCENARIO OF STORMS STARTING BETWEEN 4PM-8PM
COMES TO FRUITION. HI-RES MODELING REMAINS FAIRLY EVENLY SPLIT
IN WHETHER THAT IS THE LIKELY OUTCOME VERSUS STORM/FRONT ARRIVAL
BEING MORE 7PM-11PM WHICH SEES A STABILIZING AIRMASS. IN EITHER
CASE, THE GENERAL OUTLOOK FAVORS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT SLOWLY EXITS EAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD CORE PROCESSES UNDERNEATH THE DEEPER TROUGH WILL KEEP LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWER AND LOW PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER, BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE UNDERNEATH HEIGHT RISES FOSTERS DRY WEATHER WHILE ALSO
LIFTING SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURE SUNDAY/MONDAY BACK TOWARD
DAILY AVERAGES TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOCALLY DENSE FOG CONTINUES HERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SEVERAL PORTS LOCKED IN BELOW MINIMUMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY BECOME LESS DENSE CLOSER TO THE 13-14Z TIME FRAME BUT
MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT. VFR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD AREA-WIDE
BY 15-16Z WITH ONLY A FEW OR SCT CU FIELD LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS DURING THE DAY. ANY RAIN CHANCE FAVORS THE
EASTERN- FACING SLOPES OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WV HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE/UPSLOPE FLOW COULD
RESULT IN AN ISOLATED STORM. DESPITE THIS, POPS AREN'T HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
LOCALIZED FOG, FAVORING RIVER VALLEYS, MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE FOSTERS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAIN/RESTRICTION CHANCES
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING THANKS TO COOLER NW FLOW AND LAKE
MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ009-
014>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ049-050-
058-059-069.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-
012-021-509.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...FRAZIER/AK
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