873
FXUS61 KPBZ 150627
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
227 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SLIGHT AND MARGINAL SEVERE RISK AREAS WERE PULLED SLIGHTLY
NORTH AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO, THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR THURSDAY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL STORM PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR TODAY
WAS REFINED SLIGHTLY, FOCUSING ON AREAS NORTH OF I-70 AFTER 21Z
OR SO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY NORTH OF
I-70. DAMAGING WIND IS THE MAIN THREAT, ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND
A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.
2) THURSDAY FEATURES A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE
STORMS, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. AFTER A BREAK
FRIDAY, A STRONGER FRONT COULD BRING MORE SEVERE WEATHER
SATURDAY.
3) ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. DAILY RECORD HIGH
MAX AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED AND POSSIBLY
BROKEN, ESPECIALLY TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A REMNANT MCV IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EARLIER SMALL HAIL-PRODUCING CELLS
TO THE NORTH OF THE MCV HAVE MOVED EAST AND DISSIPATED, LEAVING
A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIPITATION. TOWARDS SUNRISE, WHAT SHOULD
BE THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF THE MICHIGAN QLCS WILL APPROACH
AREAS NORTH OF I-80. CAMS AGREE ON THIS FADING TREND AS THE LOW-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD GENERALLY BE HOSTILE TO CONVECTION AT
THAT TIME DUE TO RELATIVELY MEAGER MLCAPE AND INCREASING MLCIN.
IMPACT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS
MODESTLY GUSTY WIND.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS IMPROVED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE
REGION. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE, FEATURING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES, WILL LIE NORTH OF I-70. THIS
IS WHERE THE BULK OF THE STORM ACTIVITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TRACKING E OR
ENE. ACCORDINGLY, ALONG WITH SOME MEASURE OF SURFACE HEATING,
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO EASILY REACH THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ACCORDING TO HREF MEANS, WITH POTENTIAL TO
REACH 2000 J/KG IN THE EVENT OF STRONGER HEATING. DEEP SHEAR
WILL BE IMPROVED AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, REACHING THE 35-40
KNOT RANGE FOR 0-6KM VALUES. STORM INITIATION LIKELY OCCURS TO
OUR WEST, PERHAPS AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE, WITH ACTIVITY
POTENTIALLY SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AFTER 21Z OR SO. STORM
MODE COULD BE MIXED, WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS, AND
POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE
STORMS CAN FORM EARLIER OVER OUR REGION ALONG REMNANT
BOUNDARIES. THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER
MOST OF THE REGION. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO OR TWO LIES GENERALLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH, WHERE LOW-
LEVEL SRH IS MAXIMIZED, LCLS ARE A BIT LOWER, AND CAPE IN THE
HAIL GROWTH ZONE IS MORE ABUNDANT. THE NEW SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE, LEAVING A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) IN PLACE NORTH OF I-70. ALSO REMEMBER: THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE IGNORED, AS ISOLATED ISSUES COULD OCCUR
IN LOCATIONS THAT ARE IMPACTED BY MULTIPLE STORMS.
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LARGELY SUBSIDE BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO
DIURNAL STABILIZATION, UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD ONCE AGAIN IMPACT
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AT LEAST IN A WEAKENING
STATE. SUCH CONVECTION IS TRICKY TO TIME AND DEPENDS AT LEAST
PARTIALLY ON LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES ON THURSDAY, AS GREAT LAKES LOW
PRESSURE DRAGS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP SHEAR WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER THE BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY. LESS-
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES POINT
TO LOWER TORNADO AND HAIL POTENTIAL, LEAVING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AS THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT FROM THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SPC DAY
2 MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) AREA WAS EXPANDED TO COVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF MORGANTOWN.
A CROSSING SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE LOW, DIPPING INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, MAY FINALLY DISLODGE THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE BRINGING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR REGION. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FEATURE A DRY BREAK
AS A SMALLER- SCALE 500MB RIDGE CROSSES. THEN, ONE LAST ROUND OF
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ARRIVE WITH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, FOLLOWED BY DECREASING
PRECIPITATION AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A ANOMALOUSLY STRONG (500MB HEIGHTS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE) AND
STUBBORN RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER FLORIDA AND EXTENDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE BEING WEAKENED SOME BY
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT TODAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCES OF RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES. WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL PUSH 850MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 14
TO 16C RANGE, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S
ASSUMING DECENT SUNSHINE/MIXING. SUCH TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AWAY FROM THE RIDGES, WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH
FEATURE MORE CLOUD COVER AND BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN NBM TEMPERATURE RECORD PROBABILITIES FOR TODAY.
SITES PHD (SHORTER CLIMATE RECORD), HLG, AND MGW ALL HAVE 85% OR
GREATER PROBABILITY OF REACHING RECORD HIGHS TODAY ACCORDING TO
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. PROBABILITIES FOR ZZV AND PIT ARE LOWER GIVEN
A BIT BETTER CLOUD/RAIN POTENTIAL AND LONGER CLIMATE HISTORIES.
THERE ARE ALSO DECENT PROBABILITIES BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY FOR
RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WITH PIT, PHD, AND HLG FEATURING
70% OR GREATER CHANCE OF SETTING SUCH STANDARDS BOTH DAYS.
THURSDAY REMAINS WARM, WITH 60% OR GREATER PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES OF 80 OR HIGHER SOUTH OF I-80, BUT A BIT MORE AREAWIDE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY HINDER THE POTENTIAL OF RECORD
HIGHS (PROBABILITIES DROP BELOW 30% AREAWIDE). THE NEXT BEST SHOT
FOR THESE MAY BE SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME SUN AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE WARMTH DEFINITIVELY ENDS BY
SUNDAY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.
MINOR HEAT RISK CONTINUES AREAWIDE TODAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
RETRACTING SOME ON FRIDAY. HEAT IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY BE FELT BY
THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND THOSE WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION. SPECKLED MODERATE RISK AREAS ARE INDICATED TODAY
AND THURSDAY ESPECIALLY, MAINLY IN THE OHIO AND MON RIVER
VALLEYS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR PREVAILS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST
IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR AS WELL. THIS WILL POSSIBLY BE BROKEN BY
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE FIRST OF WHICH LARGELY OCCURS BETWEEN 10-14Z WHEN THE
ONGOING LINE OF STORMS IN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO ENCROACH UPON
THE REGION. BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE, IT WILL LIKELY BE A BROKEN
LINE OF DYING SHOWERS AND MAY FRACTURE FURTHER BEFORE EVEN
MAKING IT TO BVI OR ANYWHERE FURTHER SOUTH. THESE SHOWERS COULD
BRING MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN VIS TO AFFECTED PORTS AND LOWERING
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AT FKL AND DUJ WHICH HAVE SEEN CIG
FORECASTS IMPROVE THIS CYCLE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
AS TEMPOS FOR FKL/DUJ, PROB30S AS FAR SOUTH AS HLG/AGC/LBE AND
ARE NOT MENTIONED FURTHER SOUTH.
AFTER THESE EARLY SHOWERS DECAY, WIDESPREAD VFR AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON, WHEN STORMS BEGIN TO SPARK AGAIN.
THE OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
WITH A WIDE RANGE OF TIMING AND COVERAGE SOLUTIONS AT PLAY.
CURRENTLY STORMS ARE FAVORED LARGELY NORTH OF I-70 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY BEGINNING AGAIN BY EARLY
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO I-80 FIRST. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN BRING
ADDITIONAL LINES OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION (HIGHEST CHANCES
AGAIN NORTH OF I-70) AFTER SUNSET. STORM COVERAGE MAY BE MORE
LIMITED IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
EVENING, BUT BOTH TIMEFRAMES LOOK TO SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUST THREATS. BOTH OF THESE POSSIBLE STORM TIMINGS HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED AS PROB30 GROUPS FOR AFFECTED PORTS TRYING TO
FORECAST THE BEST TIME. THIS REMAINS RATHER DIFFICULT THOUGH,
WITH STORM TIMING AND LOCATION BEING LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE
EXISTENCE AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARIES TOMORROW MORNING FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION TONIGHT.
MGW MAY FIND IT SELF FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO MISS OUT ON ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY AND COULD BE VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. ZZV COULD ALSO LUCK OUT BUT HAS A HIGHER CHANCE THAN MGW
TO SEE STORMS TOMORROW EVENING. AGAIN, LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE VFR BUT INSTANCES OF RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH NEAR SUNRISE AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD BY EVENING
TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN POSITIONED NEAR THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND MAKE IT LIABLE FOR
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE CROSSING TO FOSTER PERIODIC
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIP-DRIVEN RESTRICTIONS.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY BEFORE CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGH AGAIN ON A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY, VFR WEATHER.
CLIMATE
SEE BELOW FOR RECORD MAX HIGHS AND MAX LOWS THIS WEEK:
TODAY, APRIL 15TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
WHEELING, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DUBOIS, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)
THURSDAY, APRIL 16TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)
FRIDAY, APRIL 17TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)
SATURDAY, APRIL 18TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...CERMAK/AK
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