818
FXUS61 KPBZ 052334
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
734 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. FOLLOWING THE RECENT COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
THE COMBINATION OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID-30S FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION. FROST POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS THE RIDGES
AND AREAS NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH (NEAR I-80); FROST ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9AM TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER THIS WEEK WILL RETURNER WARM TEMPERATURES
AND EFFECTIVELY END THE FROST THREAT INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF A POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A 70% CHANCE OF FORMATION OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF. GIVEN THE NOTED
UNCERTAINTY, RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 20-50% SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IF THE
SYSTEM FIZZLES OUT AND/OR TRACKS EAST BEFORE VENTURE NORTH
TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW
ENSEMBLES TRACKING THE REMNANTS OF THE DISTURBANCE INTO PORTIONS
OF OUR REGION AND TOTALS COULD EXCEED AN INCH. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST CARRY SIMILAR UNCERTAINTY OVERT THE WEEKEND. DRIER
SCENARIOS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S, WHILE WETTER
SOLUTIONS FAVOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-60S.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GUSTIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SUBSIDE AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS LIGHTEN, FOG BECOME POSSIBLE AT SOME PORTS,
PARTICULARLY ADJACENT TO VALLEYS. THIS INCLUDES THE USUAL
SUSPECTS (FKL/MGW/HLG/DUJ) AND A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR FOG AT
ZZV.
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND AS SUCH
FAVORS CLOUD FREE SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
PAZ009-015-016-074-076>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
WVZ512>514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...MILCAREK/AK
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