191
FXUS61 KPBZ 031715
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
115 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. FROST IS A
POSSIBILITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS NORTH OF I-80 AND
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST PA AND NORTHERN WV.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DRY FORECAST WITH THE ONLY SHOT AT MEASURABLE RAINFALL COMING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL
BE A LOT MORE CLOUDS IN PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY THAN TODAY. EASTERN
OHIO SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAY IN THE CLEAR FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. A SECOND MOISTURE STARVED FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH WILL REINFORCE COOLER
WEATHER THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. IN FACT, THE 0C ISOTHERM AT
850MB GETS INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING.
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK FEATURES THE COLUMN SLOWING WARMING
AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING. HIGH TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE
SEASONAL VALUES WITH 70S COMMON OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WE MAY HAVE A SHOT AT OUR SECOND
80F DEGREE DAY OF THE MONTH NEXT WEEKEND WITH PROBS CLIMBING
INTO THE 30 PERCENTILE RANGE AND THE FORECAST 50TH PERCENTILE A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN MOST RECENT RUNS.
FROST ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST
CORNERS OF OUR AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN TUESDAY AT SUNRISE GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. PROBS OF MIN TEMPS LESS
THAN 37 DEGREES RANGE FROM 45-80% IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS,
WHILE THOSE NUMBERS DROP BETWEEN 20-30% AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
THE MEAN FIRST FROST AT DUBOIS AIRPORT IS SEPTEMBER 25TH AND THE
/LATE/ 90TH PERCENTILE IS OCTOBER 9TH, THUS WE ARE ON THE LATER
SIDE OF CLIMO THIS YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES CLEAR, CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
STUBBORN MID- LEVEL CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH NEAR MGW CLOSER TO
A SURFACE TROUGH. A SCT-BKN FAIR WEATHER CU FIELD HAS SETUP
CLOSE TO BVI. THESE CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED UP TO VFR AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET DUE TO A LOSS OF MIXING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY AND LESS THAN
12 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CONTINUING TO VEER TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
TOMORROW AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
CONTINUED SURFACE TROUGHING AND THE ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RETURN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION CLOSER TO SUNRISE
ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, MOST PORTS LOOK TO STAY VFR BUT THE
SITES CLOSEST TO THE RIDGES WOULD STAND THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS WITH MVFR LOOKING LIKELY AT MGW/DUJ.
OUTLOOK... TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH MAY BRIEFLY LIFT NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR CEILING RESTRICTIONS AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MONDAY AND BRINGS
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ONLY BROKEN BY BOUTS OF MORNING FOG.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCMULLEN
AVIATION...AK
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