384
FXUS61 KPBZ 021748
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
148 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL HEAT INTENSITY REMAIN UNCHANGED. SOME HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN STORM BEHAVIOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT WAVE CONTINUES WITH HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR MOST.
HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY PENDING STORMS.
2) SEVERE CHANCES PERSIST EACH DAY, PEAKING IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PUSH INTO MID 90S FOR
MOST TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING IN THE 100S. THIS SEEMS ON
TRACK WITH CURRENT AREA OBSERVATIONS AS OF NOON SHOWING LOW 90S
WITH INDICES OF 100F OR HIGHER. CHANCES OF OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ABOVE 70F APPEAR 90% TO 100% LIKELY, WITH
A >50% CHANCE OF >75F IN RIVER VALLEYS AND URBANIZED AREAS.
FRIDAY APPEARS IT WILL CARRY EXCEEDINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES YET
AGAIN, AS CHANCES OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INCREASE TO START OFF
THE DAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP
OFF PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THURSDAY WITH THE 594DM 500MB
HIGH DROPPING SOUTH SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
NBM SHOWS A >90% CHANCE OF >90F, AND A 50/50 SHOT FOR MOST
AREAS BREAKING 95F DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON.
PROBABILITIES OF STORMS INCREASE THE MOST TOMORROW NORTH OF
I-80 BUT REMAIN POSSIBLE ANYWHERE, WHICH, SHOULD THEY OCCUR,
MIGHT PROVIDE A TEMPORARY COOLDOWN. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS >70F
FRIDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY. ALL IN ALL, THIS MEANS THAT EXTREME HEAT
RISK WILL REMAIN 70% LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE 1) HOW
MUCH STORM DEVELOPMENT WE HAD FRIDAY, AND 2) THE STORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED SATURDAY. THESE TWO ELEMENTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN; ANY
OCCURRENCE OF STORMS WOULD INCREASE CHANCE OF A COOLDOWN. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS THAT LOW STORM COVERAGE
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HEAT SATURDAY UNTIL STORMS FORM
(STORMS MORE LIKELY SATURDAY THAT FRIDAY). HENCEFORTH, ANY AREAS
THAT DO REMAIN STORM FREE WILL REMAIN HOT (TEMPS IN THE 90S,
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100S), WHILE ANY AREAS THAT DO SEE STORMS
MAY FINALLY COOL DOWN FROM INTENSE HEAT. ITS ALSO EVIDENT THAT
THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY WHICH MAY TAMP HEAT DOWN
A FEW DEGREES. AS WE CONTINUE TO GAIN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
STORM RISKS, WE MAY BE ABLE TO EXTEND SOME HEAT HEADLINES FOR
THE LOWLANDS INTO SATURDAY.
BECAUSE OF DURATION, SOME MAJOR HEAT RISK MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY, DEPENDENT ON SATURDAY'S STORMS. A COUPLE OF SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES INTO NEXT WEEK WILL LEND TO AN EVENTUAL
COOLDOWN TO "MORE SEASONABLE" MID-80S FOR THE WORK-WEEK, THROUGH
THE CHANCES TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LINGER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SOME IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. TONIGHT, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
(>25% CHANCE) THAT DECAYING STORMS MAKE INTO THE I-80 CORRIDOR
WITH A CORRESPONDING LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. ONE WAY
THAT YOU WOULD ACTUALIZE SEVERE WEATHER IS THAT IF STORMS EXIST
IN THE FIRST PLACE AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THE PUSH SOUTH OFF
LAKE ERIE IN ~1300 DCAPE AND ~2000 J/KG SBCAPE. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO FOR NOW IS THAT DRY AIR IS TOO INHIBITIVE AND
CONTRIBUTES TO THE UNDERCUTTING AND DECAYING OF ANY CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THAT DOES OCCUR.
FRIDAY, PROBABILITIES OF INITIATION ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASE. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY IN REGIONS
NORTH OF I-70 FOR NOW, BUT DO NOTE THAT STORMS COULD
THEORETICALLY OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE AREA. LREF 50TH PERCENTILE
SOUNDINGS AT THIS POINT SHOW ~1100 DCAPE AND 2500 J/KG SBCAPE,
WHICH IS CERTAINLY CAPABLE OR REALIZING A 65MPH TO 75MPH
DOWNBURST WIND THREAT SHOULD STORMS ACTUALIZE AND DEVELOP DEEP
ENOUGH TO REALIZE THE THREAT. AT THIS TIME THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER STORMS WILL ACTUALIZE OR NOT.
SATURDAY, SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS THE HIGHEST OF ALL DAYS, WITH
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL AREAWIDE AS THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN IS IN FULL
SWING WITH PERHAPS A HAIR OF SHORTWAVE ENHANCEMENT. 50TH
PERCENTILE DCAPE SHOWS ~900 WITH ~2000 J/KG SBCAPE AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.8". WHILE ENVIRONMENTALLY FAVORABLE PARAMETERS DROP
OFF SOME FROM FRIDAY, INITIATION BECOMES A BIT MORE LIKELY, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES SOUTH OF I-80 FOR NOW. EVEN THOUGH
PARAMETERS ARE LOWER, THEY ARE CERTAINLY STILL HIGH ENOUGH FOR
SEVERE WINDS. WET MICROBURSTS SEEM LIKELY, WITH AREAS PICKING
UP A QUICK 1-1.5" WHERE STORMS DO OCCUR.
SUNDAY, SEVERE PROBABILITIES LINGER, BUT IT WILL BE TOO
DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE WHAT THE THREAT LOOKS LIKELY UNTIL
SATURDAYS STORM THREAT TIMING/LOCATION/INTENSITY IS DIAGNOSED.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR IS FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OCCASIONAL WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 15KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CU HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO THIN A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WINS OUT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY, WITH PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY PERI-DAWN FOG, 14-18Z SCT CU AND GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS.
HIGH UNCERTAINLY, LOW PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
NORTH OF I-70.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY (AND POTENTIALLY BEYOND) AHEAD OF AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHILE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLOWLY RISE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (TODAY):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 95/1966
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 97 RECORD: 97/1966
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
WHEELING WV AREA OBSERVED: 73 RECORD: 73/2018
MORGANTOWN WV AREA OBSERVED: 72 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA OBSERVED: 71 RECORD: 73/2018
PITTSBURGH PA AREA OBSERVED: 75 RECORD: 76/1903
ZANESVILLE OH AREA OBSERVED: 71 RECORD: 71/1903
--
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 99/1966
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 98/1898
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 99/1966
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 99/1898
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 100/1911
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 77/1903
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1898
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 78/1935
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-077.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-509.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ510-511.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK
AVIATION...RACKLEY/FRAZIER
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