666
FXUS61 KPBZ 170453
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1253 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST MESSAGING REMAINS THE SAME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DAMAGING WIND AGAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.
2) MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNTIL THE SATURDAY
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. BEHIND IT, TEMPERATURES CRASH TO MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL LEVELS. FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND EVEN A FEW SUNDAY NIGHT SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO CROSS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OF SATURDAY, BRINGING BETTER DYNAMICS
AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN
QUESTION WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS TIMING, WHICH WOULD HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE. THIS
WILL DEPEND AT LEAST IN PART ON THE SPEED AND ORIENTATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SUGGEST
SOME FAIRLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING WITH THIS
WAVE AS WELL AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. MACHINE- LEARNING GUIDANCE
FROM NCAR AND CSU CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER, AND SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
EITHER A MARGINAL OR SLIGHT RISK AT DAY 3. ENSEMBLE SOUNDINGS
DURING THAT PERIOD DEPICT GENERALLY POOR MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MODEST LOW- LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE, SUGGESTING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WOULD AGAIN BE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE MENTIONED FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST
POTENTIAL TO APPROACH RECORDS ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE
FRONT IS LATER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED, ALLOWING FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 80 OR WARMER
MAY BE A BIT OVERSTATED, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA FROM PITTSBURGH
SOUTH SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A 50/50 SHOT OF REACHING THAT LEVEL.
MEANWHILE, BEHIND THE FRONT, THE SCRIPT FLIPS, AND NORTHEAST
CONUS TROUGHING LEADS TO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BEFORE APPROACHING
CLIMATOLOGY ON TUESDAY. FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND SOME SUNDAY NIGHT SNOWFLAKES ARE
A POSSIBILITY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST WITH A CROSSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 09Z AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. IFR STRATUS
AND FOG IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM N-S ACROSS MOST
AIRPORTS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, AND AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING OCCURS. ZZV AND MGW WILL LIKELY NOT SEE CIGS AND ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STAY VFR.
EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS BY MID MORNING AS MIXING
LIFTS CIG HEIGHTS. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH VFR RETURNING UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. A LIGHT W-NW
WIND IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SE FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGHING AND COLD NW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN CIG
RESTRICTIONS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER/CL/88
AVIATION...WM
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