347
FXUS61 KPBZ 241711
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
111 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE LINGERED SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN PRIOR
EXPECTATION, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS MORNING. MAIN
UPDATE WAS TO POPS IN THE NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LOCATION OF
SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO.
2) BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE LINGERS THRU FRIDAY AND MODERATES
BY THE WEEKEND.
3) TRENDS CONTINUE AWAY FROM LOCAL PRECIPITATION INFLUENCED BY
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LINGERING SHOWERS WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
A SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS MORNING.
EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL DRYING AND
EROSION OF AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AMID STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
WILL BE LIKELY THRU THE WEEKEND. THU NIGHT IN PARTICULAR WILL
FEATURE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE WITH VALUES BROADLY APPROACHING
THE LOW-MID 40S, AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE 30S IN CANAAN VALLEY,
WHERE FROST MAY DEVELOP LOCALLY IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES EASTWARD, AND FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TOWARD WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY, TEMPERATURE TRENDS SEEM LIKELY TO
RETURN TOWARD NORMAL (MAXIMA IN THE LOW 70S AND MINIMA IN THE
LOW 50S).
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ENSEMBLE TRENDS AWAY FROM WEEKEND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE HAVE CONTINUED.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE IN THE TUE-WED
TIMEFRAME, WHEN A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
AT THIS TIME, BUOYANCY APPEARS MEAGER, SO POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER APPEARS LOW DESPITE A STRONGER WIND FIELD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, BACKING SOME TO LIGHT AND NORTH-
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IT IMPACTING ANY
PARTICULAR PORT IN THE MORNING, MOST LIKELY FOR FKL.
OUTLOOK...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING FOG CHANCES IN RIVER/CREEK
VALLEYS. CHANCES OF VALLEY FOG APPEAR TO BE HIGHEST ON
SATURDAY AT THIS TIME, BUT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
FAVORED.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ076.
OH...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ511>514.
DISCUSSION...KRAMAR
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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