532
FXUS61 KPBZ 120600
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT EXITS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES
- MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY IN THE RIDGES
---------------------------------------------------------------
A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
RIDGES, WHERE A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS COULD FIRE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORM ELSEWHERE, THOUGH WITH A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS AROUND 590 DM, AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
18-20 DEG C, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN MONDAY'S READINGS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES, WHICH
IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AND LINGER THURSDAY
- DRY WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT
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A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT,
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TONIGHT. EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IN PLACE.
THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CURRENT MODEL PROGS INDICATE A ML CAPE RANGING FROM 1000-2000
J/KG BY AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
20-25KT, WITH STRONGER FLOW REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS ON
WEDNESDAY, AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.7 - 1.9 INCHES. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES, A LESSER POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS WOULD BE EXPECTED,
THOUGH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY, THE FLOOD POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL, WITH THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES, AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS
TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVERNIGHT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY.
A SECONDARY, WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY, AS THE SURFACE FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT
THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING, WITH THE RESULTING WNW UPPER FLOW
DRIVING THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD. DRY WEATHER IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS, THROUGH STILL AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY DRY OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES THROUGH SATURDAY
- HOT WEATHER RETURNS
- MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
-------------------------------------------------------------------
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SE
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN THE RIDGES, WHERE A COUPLE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS THE HIGH RETROGRADES, THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE, MAINTAINED
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS MORNING. DIURNAL
CU IS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING, AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER AROUND 20Z
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM REMAINS
VERY LOW. AT THIS TIME, THE ONLY AREAS WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS ARE THOSE NEAR THE RIDGES
(DUJ/LBE/MGW) WHERE PROB30S HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED DURING A
21Z-01Z WINDOW. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY REMAIN TOO LOW (BUT NOT ZERO; AROUND 10%) TO
WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
BETTER RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF A NUMBER OF
TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR.
A DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN POTENTIAL IS FAVORED TO END THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR NEW ENGLAND.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK/HEFFERAN/RACKLEY
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