356
FXUS61 KPBZ 150040
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
840 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020
SYNOPSIS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
CHANGES FOR THE EVE UPDATE WERE PRIMARILY COSMETIC AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CLOUD
COVER AND AN GENERALLY WARM ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL HOLD LOWS ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS.
RAIN CHANCE WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE THAT IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD AND IS SUPPORTED
BY JET CIRCULATION WILL PROVIDE BROAD SUPPORT FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FOR PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. AS THE CENTER
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH, WV AND SOUTHERN PA COUNTIES
HAVE THE MOST POTENTIAL TO PICK UP QUITE A BIT OF RAIN, WITH SOME
SPOTS SEEING AN INCH OR MORE. FLOODING IS NOT CONSIDERED A
SUBSTANTIAL THREAT AS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING VULNERABLE AREAS THAT HAVE
SEEN HEAVY RAIN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MAY OFFER A FEW SHOWERS PRIOR TO ITS
PASSAGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND A RELAXED HEIGHT PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRES WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND
DEGRADE CONDITIONS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD. DEPENDING ON SATURATION
TIMING, CEILINGS MAY MAINTAIN VFR TIL MID-MRNG AT PIT/AGC, BUT WILL
LIKELY FALL RAPIDLY TO MVFR/IFR TO THE SOUTH AS RAIN BECOMES
PREVALENT.
OUTLOOK
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF PIT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY
TRACKS EASTWARD.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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