883
FXUS61 KPBZ 062326
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
726 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY,
WITH RAIN CHANCES POTENTIALLY RETURNING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MOSTLY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY. THROUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW
WITH THE FRONT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 30%, GIVEN SHALLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOST
LIKELY MAKE AN APPEARANCE. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS BETWEEN 8AM AND 11AM THURSDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF A POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF AND MOVES NORTH. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO
MATERIALIZE, PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD RECEIVE AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND HALF OF RAIN WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE SIZE AND
TRACK OF THE LOW, WITH A POTENTIAL RAIN SHADOW DEVELOPING AS
EASTERLY FLOW CROSSES OVER THE RIDGES AND PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE,
LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN PITTSBURGH AND THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.
THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
MONDAY IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO OUR REGION, BECOMES ABSORBED
INTO STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER ONTARIO, AND A TROUGH
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR WITH A LOW
(LESS THAT 20% CHANCE) OF VALLEY FOG AT ANY GIVEN PORT GIVEN
MIXING FROM THE DAY PRIOR AND DRY LOW-LEVELS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO THE
10KT TO 20KT RANGE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS, ALONG WITH VFR SCATTERED
CU ARE FAVORED (MOST LIKELY NORTH OF I-70.
OUTLOOK...
A WEAK, MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING COULD INDUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
FAVORING NORTHWEST PA. OUTSIDE OF THAT AND VARYING CHANCES FOR
MORNING RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG, VFR IS FAVORED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND UNTIL A DISTURBANCE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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