712
FXUS61 KPBZ 030040
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
840 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH ON FRIDAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD
FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WITH A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING
2) BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT THAT COULD ALSO BRING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
3) BECOMING COOLER AND QUIETER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, EXCEPT ACROSS THE RIDGES WHERE IT DIPS SOUTH. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY REINFORCING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PUSHING THE FRONT BACK
DOWN SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH ACHIEVEMENT
OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WIND, SMALL HAIL, AND A BRIEF DOWNPOUR WITH >500
DCAPE AND A 40-60% CHANCE OF >1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE, BUT THESE SHOULD
BE TRANSIENT WITH A LOW SEVERE THREAT. SPC HAS KEPT THE MARGINAL
RISK (1/5) WEST OF THE RIDGES AND SOUTH OF I-70 CAPTURING THE
SCATTERED WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL COVERAGE MAY BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE SINKING BOUNDARY IN THE EARLY EVENING, AND EVEN
THEN, THERE'S STILL QUESTION ON BOUNDARY PLACEMENT. HREF DATA
SUGGESTS ITS SOUTHWARD EXTENT COULD BE JUST PAST US-422 WHILE ITS
NORTHWARD EXTENT IS AROUND OR NORTH OF I-80. GIVEN LESS FAVORABLE
DIURNAL TIMING, THINKING THAT THERE MAY BE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAN A SEVERE THREAT ALONG IT. MOISTURE WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO POOL UP AGAINST IT THROUGH THE DAY WITH STOUT SW
FLOW, AND DEEPER COLUMN FLOW IS PRETTY UNIFORMLY WESTERLY SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN OVER THE SAME AREA IN
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY PLACEMENT. WHILE PLACEMENT AGAIN IS
UNCERTAIN, HREF 90TH PERCENTILE QPF SHOWS A DISTINCT MAXIMUM ALONG
IT WITH 1"/HR RATES AND 1-2.5" TOTALS (LOCALLY) BEING THE HIGH END
OUTCOME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER, DEEPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY AS A
STRONGER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL, AGAIN, LIFT
FRIDAY'S BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND SWEEP A COLD FRONT
THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. STILL HAVE TO IRON
OUT TIMING WITH THIS ONE AS WELL, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME WARM SECTOR
INITIATION DURING THE DAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND DIFFLUENT
MID-LEVEL FLOW. THESE WOULD LIKELY POSE THE HIGHER SEVERE RISK THAN
ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN LATE ARRIVAL TIME THAT'S STILL DEPICTED BY
MOST ENSEMBLES TO BE AFTER SUNSET. A SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS PROGGED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NBM MEAN SBCAPE RANGING
FROM 900-1100 J/KG WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE RRFS/REFS. ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BIT LESS SHEAR TO WORK WITH AS THE
BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE
DAY WITH THE FRONT, BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL AS CONDITIONAL PRIMARY THREATS. IF
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION FAILS, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD STILL BE
LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK
FROM SPC FOR NOW, BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS DETAILS IRON OUT
FURTHER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ECONUS TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY/TUESDAY
BEFORE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ARRIVAL OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING HEIGHTS BY MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD POINT TOWARD A DRIER
TREND WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SIT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH
PERIODS OF CU AS WELL AS 15-25KT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
GUSTS. LATEST ANALYSIS FAVORS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND LOCATIONS
EAST FOR SEEING ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, WITH ANYTHING WEST BEING VERY ISOLATED AND UNLIKELY
TO IMPACT TERMINALS. DECAYING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH WESTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN 09Z-14Z FRIDAY; THE MORE
LIKELY OUTCOME IS THE REGION STAYING DRY WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SE FLOW MAY NUDGE A THIN MVFR TO IFR STRATUS LAYER BACK INTO DUJ
AFTER 00Z (40-60% PROBABILITY) BEFORE LOCAL SURFACE LOW VEERS
MORE SOUTHERLY TO LIFT/CLEAR THOSE CLOUDS. ADDITIONALLY,
MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z-08Z FOR
AREA TERMINALS AS A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS PRIOR
TO SURFACE FLOW INCREASING.
OUTLOOK...
THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK FORCING LIKELY
RESULTS IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING; ANY STORM COULD CREATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING RAPID
BUT BRIEF VISIBILITY DROPS AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS.
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS FAVORED LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THAT WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEXT LARGE SCALE
RESTRICTION PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
RECORD HIGH....
KPIT: 83/1882
KDUJ: 75/1981
KMGW: 84/1921
KHLG: 81/1921
KPHD: 80/1963
KZZV: 83/1986
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/MLB
AVIATION...FRAZIER/88
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