043
FXUS61 KPBZ 241913
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
313 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2019
SYNOPSIS
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS MAINLY FROM PITTSBURGH TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS, A WARMING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES, AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS AFTERNOON IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF VERY DRY AIR AT THE GROUND.
AS OF 3PM ZZV WAS REPORTING A TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT OF 60/20,
WHILE 2G4 WAS 48/10. NEEDLESS TO SAY, IT WILL TAKE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE JUST TO SATURATE THE AIR AND ALLOW ANY
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. LOCAL RADARS SHOW PLENTY OF
ECHOES AT 10 KFT, EVEN THOUGH AUTOMATED SITES ARE REPORTING
SKIES CLEAR BELOW 12 KFT. TONIGHT'S ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
COME FROM A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. AT THIS POINT HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70, WITH
DECREASING CHANCES TO THE NORTH. A FEW FLAKES COULD BE SEEN
AROUND I-80, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER, LOWS WILL BE 5-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME AROUND SUNRISE
BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
KENTUCKY AND NORTH CAROLINA IS FELT. THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER
NORTHWARD SURGE IN PRECIPITATION, BUT THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULDN'T MAKE IT MUCH PAST US 422, LEAVING THE
I-80 CORRIDOR COMPLETELY DRY. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE STILL IN THE
FORECAST FROM THE MASON-DIXON LINE SOUTH. THE EFFECT OF CLOUD
COVER TOMORROW WILL BE TO KNOCK DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH
VALUES 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE RIDGES MONDAY NIGHT, WITH DIFFERENT
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT TIMING AS TO HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPART. THE LONGER IT TAKES PRECIP TO DEPART, THE GREATER
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION, HOWEVER MINOR IT MAY BE. AT
THIS POINT JUST HAVE A DUSTING IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP 10-15 DEGREES FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE
THANKS TO CLEARING SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK, ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL VARY LITTLE FROM MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY, THEN MODELS BECOME A BIT MURKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THE EUROPEAN IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH
PASSING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, BUT BOTH MODEL SUGGEST
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY.
APPARENTLY THE PRICE TO PAY FOR 3 NICE DAYS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THE NEXT 3 DAYS AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY, WHEN THE
FRONT MAY HAVE CROSSED THE REGION AND BROUGHT IN COLDER AIR.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH INCREASED
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS (MAINLY KPIT AND SOUTH) WITH A CROSSING
DISTURBANCE.
OUTLOOK
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY SOUTH OF KPIT AS A
WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION.
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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