699
FXUS61 KPBZ 282350
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
750 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND FLOOD POTENTIAL DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUS HEAT MID TO LATE
THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK. UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING, THEN FOG OVERNIGHT
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUS HEAT MID TO LATE WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO THROUGH SW PA
PROVIDED ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WAS OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALLEGHENY AND
WESTMORELAND COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING, CALM WIND, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE,
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SOME AREAS COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAIN FELL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE STORY OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS HOT WEATHER AREAWIDE. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND BRINGS THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR, NOT
RECORD BREAKING WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF BREAKING WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AT SEVERAL SITES
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY. THE HOTTEST WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER 90S WILL
BE COMMON, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THAT TIME AS
APPARENT TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE 100F TO 104F RANGE. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH ON MOISTURE AND MAINTAINS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S DEWPOINTS EVEN DURING AFTERNOON HOURS, LEADING TO HEAT
INDICES CLIMBING ABOVE 105F IN SOME SPOTS. WHILE THAT IS NOT OUT
OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY (PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS
LOCATED RIGHT ALONG MAJOR RIVERS), HISTORICALLY SPEAKING IT IS
DIFFICULT FOR THIS REGION TO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID
90S WITH DEWPOINTS THAT HIGH (E.G., PITTSBURGH HAS SEEN A
TEMPERATURE OF 95F AND DEWPOINT OF 75F OR GREATER ONLY 4 TIMES
SINCE 1952). THUS, THE CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
MODELED DEWPOINTS ARE A TAD HIGH AND WILL END UP VERIFYING IN
PERHAPS THE MID 60S DURING PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON, WHICH
WOULD HELP KEEP WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPERATURES BELOW 105F AND
THUS PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR EXTREME HEAT WATCHES/WARNINGS.
IN ADDITION, HEAT RISK WILL BE IN THE MAJOR CATEGORY (LEVEL 3
OUT OF 4) WITH AN EXTREME HEAT RISK (LEVEL 4 OUT OF 4) FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SINCE 2005,
PITTSBURGH HAS NOT VERIFIED AN EXTREME HEAT RISK, SO WE WILL SEE
IF THE DEWPOINT FORECAST TRENDS A SMIDGE LOWER, WHICH WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THIS INDEX. A QUICK REFRESHER, NWS HEAT RISK IS A
COLOR-NUMERIC BASED INDEX THAT USES HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER,
CLIMATE, AND CDC HEAT-HEALTH DATA TO IDENTIFY POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HEAT.
IT IS ALSO GOOD TO POINT OUT THAT A BIG DRIVER OF IMPACTS TO
PEOPLE IN HEAT WAVES ARE THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS IS
BECAUSE PEOPLE CAN'T COOL OFF AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT
AIR CONDITIONERS. IF YOU HAVE FRIENDS OR FAMILY THAT ARE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ELDERLY, OR WITHOUT AC, PLEASE CHECK ON THEM
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
MACHINE LEARNING MODELS ARE ALL POINTING TO AN UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. GRANTED THIS IS FAR DOWN THE
ROAD, BUT WHEN WE HAVE A HEAT WAVE, TYPICALLY THERE IS A ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT ENDS IT WITH THE RIDGE FLATTENING AND THE
WESTERLIES DRIVING A WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH. AS OF NOW, THE
PROBABILITIES ARE LARGELY IN THE 15%-30% RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING, CALM WIND, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE,
EXPECT IFR, AND EVENTUAL LIFR, IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY MID
MORNING AS MIXING BEGINS AND THE FOG DISSIPATES. SOUNDINGS AND
THE CU RULE INDICATE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS LAYER SHOULD
DEVELOP, THOUGH CIGS SHOULD BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY. THIS CU
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND
CAPPING WARMTH ALOFT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 93/1964
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 72 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 71 RECORD: 74/1933
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 72 RECORD: 74/1934
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 96/1991
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
WHEELING WV FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 75/1901
MORGANTOWN WV FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 71/2014
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/1913
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
NEW PHILADELPHIA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 95/1966
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 97/1931
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
WHEELING WV FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 73/2018
MORGANTOWN WV FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 73/2018
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1903
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 71/1903
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 77/1903
MORGANTOWN WV FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 77 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1898
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 78/1935
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/WM/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...WM
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