298
FXUS61 KPBZ 151736
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE FOR NOW. WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARRIVING
BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
2) STILL MONITORING POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER ON THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LARGELY QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING IN THE AREA OF THE MASON-DIXON
LINE MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
PITTSBURGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL TOTALS
EXPECTED. A CLEAR SKY IS THEN FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF MORNING SUN, BUT THEN
SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE FORECAST VIA MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURVING THROUGH THE LARGER NORTHERN CONUS
TROUGH SHOULD CURVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ARRIVE OVERNIGHT, LIKELY WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND INTO WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV.
THE MAIN PERIOD OF INTEREST IS STILL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, AS A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WAVE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH
70-80 KNOTS OF 500MB FLOW INDICATED ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP SHEAR LEVELS AT LEAST IN THE 45 TO 55 KNOT
RANGE, MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG, ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IS A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE AND WILL DEPEND
IN PART ON THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS
THURSDAY MORNING CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION. HIGHER-END ENSEMBLE
SCENARIOS INDICATE THAT 1000-1500 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE MAY
BE POSSIBLE, AND IF THAT IS REALIZED, A RATHER POTENT SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES WOULD BE THE LIKELY THREATS IN THIS CASE.
ALONG WITH THIS, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL, AGAIN DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
FLOODING THREATS MAY BE MITIGATED BY THE LIKELY SPEED OF STORMS,
AS WELL AS HIGH BUT NOT EXCESSIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
AROUND 1.6 INCHES. LREF 24-HOUR 90TH PERCENTILE RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED ISSUES IN
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AT LEAST.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS DECK REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE CROSSING IN THE VICINITY OF THE MASON-
DIXON LINE. CEILINGS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 4000-6000 FOOT RANGE,
WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN OR EVEN SLIGHTLY IMPROVE THROUGH
AFTERNOON AS MIXING MAXIMIZES. WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND MAY GUST
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE THIS EVENING WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND THE DEPARTURE OF THE WAVE. A MOSTLY CLEAR VFR NIGHT
IS FORECAST AS A SURFACE HIGH PASSES, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE
IN HIGH CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LIGHT WIND TONIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY
MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK...
A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY CREATE MINOR IMPACTS TO THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...CL
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