595
FXUS61 KPBZ 130701
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MOST NEAR TERM UPDATES WERE TO MASSAGE POPS DAY 1 IN THE
OPENING WARM SECTOR. PROBABILITIES FOR RECORD TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOT MOVED MUCH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FOR
TUESDAY LOOK TO BE ON THE RISE AT THIS TIME. STORMS LOOK MOST
LIKELY NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH AND POSE A HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. DAILY RECORD HIGH
MAX AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED AND POSSIBLY
BROKEN.
2) INCREASING DAILY STORM CHANCES THIS WEEK. MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE HEADLINES, AS A 500MB
RIDGE NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL SPUR HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK. THE CORE OF THE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF PEAKS NEAR 590DAM ON MOST
GUIDANCE. AT THE SFC, A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
TODAY AND THE RESULTING COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE COMING DAYS. THIS LENDS SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE
REGION.
PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 80 DEGREES SIT OVER 60%
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-80 EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY-
SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 85 DEGREES FOR
THE SAME TIME FRAME ARE LARGELY OVER 40% EACH DAY SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH AND PEAK BETWEEN 70-80% WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY. MANY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE CHALLENGED OR BROKEN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. PITTSBURGH, ZANESVILLE, WHEELING AND
MORGANTOWN EYE OVER 40% PROBABILITIES TO SET OR TIE RECORDS ON
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (PEAKING BETWEEN 75-85% FOR OUR WV
SITES ON WEDNESDAY). DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABNORMALLY WARM AS WELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LARGELY SITTING ~
20 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. NEW DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
RECORDS COULD ALSO BE SET AT THE SAME SITES LISTED ABOVE, WITH
PROBABILITIES PEAKING NORTH OF 90% ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LOCALLY, HEAT LOOKS TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE
UP TO 580DAM. 850MB TEMPERATURES ALSO PEAK BETWEEN 14-16C ON
WEDNESDAY, SUGGESTING THAT UNHINDERED MIXING COULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND POSSIBLY UPPER 80S F.
ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST MINOR HEAT RISK FOR THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK AND EVEN LIKELY INTO SATURDAY. THIS MEANS THAT HEAT
IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY BE FELT BY THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY
SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND THOSE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION. A COUPLE
OF SPECKLED MODERATE HEAT RISK AREAS LOOK POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AND SATURDAY.
THE LIMITING REAGENT TO RUNAWAY HEATING IN THIS SETUP LOOKS TO
BE CONTINUED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, WHICH COULD LOCALLY KEEP
THE LID ON TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DAYS OF PERSISTENT WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMES HAND
IN HAND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES LOOK TO RIDE UP AND
OVER THE TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK, EACH LIKELY PUSHING SURFACE
WAVES ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MEDIUM
RANGE MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
TIED TO THESE WAVES IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY EACH DAY
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME, TUESDAY SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. CONVECTION COULD BE ONGOING NEAR I-80
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH COULD HAMPER HEATING AND RECOVERY
BUT EVEN THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR CAPE SHOWS IMPRESSIVE (FOR
APRIL) VALUES ACROSS THE REGION, PEAKING NEAR 1500 J/KG. LESS
MORNING CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO A "CLEANER" SETUP AND MORE
HEATING WITH CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY NEARING 1500-2000 J/KG LIKE IN
THE 75TH PERCENTILE. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40
KTS, CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HINT AT AN 850-800MB WARM LAYER,
POSSIBLY KEEPING CONVECTION ELEVATED SUPPORTING MORE OF A HAIL
THREAT. IN THIS VEIN, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NORTH OF 7C/KM
AND SHIP VALUES LOOK TO PEAK OVER 1.5, BOTH SUPPORTING SEVERE
HAIL. IF THE WARM LAYER DOESN'T MATERIALIZE, MIXES OR WET BULBS
OUT, THEN THINGS COULD GET MORE INTERESTING WITH CURVED LOW-
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000.
CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO FIRE TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND THEN MOVE ESE, POSSIBLY CONGEALING INTO ONE OR MORE
BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WOULD POSE A CONTINUED HAIL RISK AND AN
INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH TIME. AT THIS TIME,
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CIRRUS/CIRROSTRATUS ARE IN PLACE AT 06Z, WITH CEILINGS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST
LOW-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAWN.
AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES, SOME LIGHT, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION BETWEEN SUNRISE AND NOON. WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH ANY SHOWERS, STRONGER
WIND ALOFT MAY BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE WITH THEM, LEADING
TO GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS IN GENERAL, AND PERHAPS UP TO 30 KNOTS
IN HIGH CASES. ANY POST-SHOWERS MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ARE MOST LIKELY AT FKL/DUJ (HREF PROBABILITY BETWEEN
60 AND 80 PERCENT).
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD TAIL OFF BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON,
CHANCES WERE CONSIDERED TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION. SAVE FOR THE
PERIOD OF I-80 MVFR CEILINGS NOTED ABOVE, VFR CUMULUS OR
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAILING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
A FEW HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
A LAKE-INDUCED BOUNDARY AT FKL/DUJ AFTER 00Z, BUT FOR NOW, WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT PENDING BETTER CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK... THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT.
CLIMATE
SEE BELOW FOR RECORD MAX HIGHS AND MAX LOWS THIS WEEK:
MONDAY, APRIL 14TH MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 84F (1941) 65F (2018)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1941) 63F (2018)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 85F (2018) 67F (2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 83F (2018) 63F (2018)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 87F (1941) 63F (1899)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2023) 59F (2014)
TUESDAY, APRIL 15TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899)
DUBOIS, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014)
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 16TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
WHEELING, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DUBOIS, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)
THURSDAY, APRIL 17TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)
FRIDAY, APRIL 18TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)
SATURDAY, APRIL 19TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...CL
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