279  
FXUS61 KPBZ 200042  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
842 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACHING  
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED DURING  
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND  
OBSERVATION TRENDS. OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF  
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND REMAIN  
GUSTY INTO SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF  
EXITING SHORTWAVE SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST,  
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, USHERING IN  
MUCH COLDER AIR IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION. DUE TO A RAPID  
DECREASE IN 850MB TEMPERATURES, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH  
SNOW, EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY  
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
ABOVE FREEZING, THUS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN  
AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION  
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  
 
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR WILL END  
PRECPITATION QUICKLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING  
OUTSIDE OF LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN  
COUNTIES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
COOL WEATHER WILL RESUME MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS  
THE AREA REMAINS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW  
WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER NO  
MAJOR DISTURBANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
DETERIORATION TO MVFR IS EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT  
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALIZED  
IFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT FKL GIVEN SATURATION AND UPSLOPING  
WIND. THAT SW WIND IS LIKELY TO BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH AN  
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION.  
 
SOME RECOVERY IN CEILING/VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE A  
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN COLD NW FLOW SUN.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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