686
FXUS61 KPBZ 191716
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
116 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES APPEAR WITH THIS LATEST FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEARLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FEATURING
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BOTH NEAR AND LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODELS REMAIN
STAUNCH IN A FAIRLY PERSISTENT FORECAST FEATURING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND VARYING UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE RESULT FAVORS
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE, DRY WEATHER, LIGHT WIND, AND A
PREPONDERANCE OF SUNSHINE THAT MAY AID TO LARGER DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. SUCH SWINGS COULD CREATE OCCASIONAL PATCHY
FROST (GENERALLY WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED), SO FOLKS
WHO HAVE OR BUYING FALL PLANTS LIKE MUMS SHOULD REMAIN COGNIZANT
OF.
THE ONLY SUBTLE FLOW CHANGE IS A MOSTLY WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
DROPS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
POTENTIALLY OFFERING A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS THAN 20%
PROBABILITIES FOR SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN IN AREAS CLOSE
TO LAKE ERIE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. RIVER VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING, HOWEVER, IT MAY NOT BE AS THICK AS TODAY GIVEN LOW TEMPERATURES
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
DURING THE DAY, WIND WILL SLIGHTLY FRESHEN UP TO 5-7 KNOTS OUT
OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...LUPO
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