626
FXUS61 KPBZ 101111
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
711 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 10
AM THROUGH 10 PM TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY
3) MAINLY DRY AND WARM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE. AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED WITH BUILDING DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THE APPROACHING
FRONT WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGING FROM 0.75 TO
1.5 INCHES FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. HREF PROBABILITY SIGNALS FOR
HEAVY RAIN ARE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE PBZ FORECAST AREA AS
WELL. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THOUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY, BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. SOME
INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A STORM MOTION OF 25-30
MPH, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. CAMS ALSO INDICATE A TRAINING POTENTIAL AS WELL.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ML
CAPE IS PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG, THOUGH 0-6KM
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 25-30KT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DCAPE VALUES COULD REACH 600-800 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, POSING A
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD STORM UPDRAFTS BE SUFFICIENT FOR
TALLER STORM CORES. THE STORM PREDICATION CENTER HAS INCLUDED
MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR IN A MARGINAL RISK,
OR LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5, FOR SEVERE STORMS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
WANING INSTABILITY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY, REACHING FAR SOUTHERN PA, NRN WV, AND
SOUTHERN OH BY MID MORNING. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO PROGGED TO
VEER MORE TO THE NW ON SATURDAY, DRIVING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. UNTIL THEN, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT STILL IN THE AREA.
THOUGH CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS. HIGHS COULD AGAIN
REACH THE LOWER 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DIFFICULT TIMING FORECAST WITH ONGOING (AS OF 12Z) STORMS NEAR
LAKE ERIE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR ZZV AND KPIT AS ALL OF
THESE ARE GENERALLY BEING HANDLED POORLY BY CONVECTIVE MODELS.
THESE FEATURES COULD ALTER THE TIMING, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THAT MODELS HAD BEEN PINPOINTING FOR THIS AFTERNOON; THUS, THIS
LATEST TAF FORECAST TRENDS SLIGHTLY LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR
CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCES AT AREA TERMINALS.
THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE MORNING STRATUS/FOG ERODING PRIOR TO
CU DEVELOPMENT THAT LEADS INTO FAIRLY ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE BETWEEN 17Z-23Z THAT TAPERS OFF BY 01Z. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF GUSTY WIND ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN RAPIDLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES. SUBSIDENCE AFTER 00Z WILL
END STORMS BUT FAVOR THE FORMATION OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND/OR
FOG THANKS TO THE STAGNANT, MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
OUTLOOK...
MVFR TO START THE DAY SATURDAY WILL LIFT TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOW FAVORING AREAS SOUTH OF I-70
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD VFR AND QUIET
WEATHER IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-
020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-
057>059-068-069.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-
509>514.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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