068
FXUS61 KPBZ 141628
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1228 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
2) WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
3) ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY, WIND WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTH AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME
PARALLEL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-70 AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS, THOUGH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD
MAINTAIN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.
THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY, AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. BACKING FLOW ALOFT WITH THE CROSSING WAVE SHOULD PUSH
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR (20KT) AND INSTABILITY (ML CAPE
750 J/KG OR LESS) ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR THURSDAY,
LIMITING ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THIS IS SUPPORT BY THE
LATEST ML GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES,
THOUGH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COULD ALSO LIMIT THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH DIMINISHING
SHOWER CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS EXIST. IN GENERAL, DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN DAILY SHOWER AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FAVORED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS AFTERNOON CU STAYS MOSTLY SCATTERED BETWEEN 2-5KFT
ALONG WITH AN OCCASIONALLY NORTHERLY GUST AROUND 15KTS.
THERE IS A NON-ZERO PROBABILITY FOR RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG NEAR
DAWN TUESDAY DUE TO LIGHTER WIND AND STARKER WATER/AIR
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BUT LOCATIONS OF IMPACT WILL BE HARD TO
PREDICT.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF MORNING VALLEY FOG, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH LOWER PROBABILITY RESTRICTIONS RETURN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING COINCIDENT WITH GRADUAL
BREAKING DOWN OF UPPER RIDGE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM
N-S LATE WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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