568
FXUS61 KPBZ 220538
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1238 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCH WAS CHANGED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING, AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF INDIANA COUNTY WAS ADDED. IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE WARNING, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. STILL
MONITORING RIVER ICE SOUTH OF RIMER ON THE ALLEGHENY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY-WINTER STORM WARNING AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
2) MONITORING RIVER LEVELS AND ICE DOWNSTREAM OF RIMER ON THE
ALLEGHENY
3) PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK, WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
SURFACE LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AT
THE SAME TIME. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND ASCENT INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH.
BY SUNDAY, AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND NW OF THE LOW TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW
PA. FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS AXIS, ALONG WITH INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW, SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS
AREA. BACK TO THE WEST, A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE ADDITIONAL SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS, WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING. MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIDGES INTO
PORTIONS OF NW PA.
CONVERTED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF PA AND WV, WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS,
AND UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED. IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST, ADDED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHERE A GENERAL 2-4 INCH SNOW IS
LIKELY.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE EAST COAST LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AS WELL.
EXPECT A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE RIDGES. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT MAINLY NORTH OF I 80 IN NW FLOW, THOUGH LAKE
SURFACE-850MB DELTA T IS MARGINAL FOR THIS. OVERALL, EXPECT 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, 2-5 INCHES IN THE
ADVISORY AREA, AND 6 TO 12 IN THE WARNING. THE SNOW SHOULD
TAPER OFF LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS FURTHER
EASTWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOME ICE HAS MOVED AND JAMMED IN THE ALLEGHENY RIVER BETWEEN
RIMER AND MOSGROVE. SOME CAMPGROUNDS ALONG THE RIVER BANK HAVE
FLOODED. UPSTREAM GAUGES INDICATE THE ICE MAY HAVE BEGUN
MOVING/SHIFTING, AND THIS COULD CREATE AN INCREASE IN FLOODING
ALONG THE RIVER. ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY, A MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A
SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE NE CONUS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
PERIODIC RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE, ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
- FIRST PUSH OF SNOW ENDS SHORTLY ACROSS LOWLAND PORTS AND VIS
INCREASES THROUGH 12Z
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS RETURN DURING SUNDAY AND COULD TURN MORE
CONVECTIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
- LOW CONFIDENCE MVFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO SUNDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
THE TAF PERIOD OPENS WITH A TRICKY FORECAST. THE FIRST
ORGANIZED BURST OF SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. BEHIND THIS AT ZZV, SNOW HAS ENDED AND VFR HAS RETURNED.
THE RAP IS THE ONLY MODEL I HAVE SEEN FOLLOWING THIS TREND. IT
DRIES OUT MANY PORTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND THEN LIFTS CIGS BACK
TO VFR FOR MANY. THE REMAINDER OF MODELS TANK THINGS TO IFR AND
DON'T BRING THEM BACK. I AM LEANING TOWARDS THE RAP IN THESE
CURRENT TAFS BUT WILL BE READY TO ADJUST AS NEEDED. THAT SAID, I
THINK VFR IS AS LOW CONFIDENCE AT MANY PORTS AS DROPPING TO IFR
IS, AS SUCH I HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR FOR MANY PORTS IN DRY
CONDITIONS UNTIL SNOW RETURNS AFTER 12Z. CIGS OVER THE NEXT 6 OR
SO HOURS ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE BUT SEVERAL DRY HOURS FOR
PORTS SUCH AS ZZV, MGW, HLG, PIT AND AGC SEEMS MORE CONFIDENT.
CIGS AND VIS LOWER AS SNOW SHOWERY ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN
LATER THIS MORNING. BY MID-AFTERNOON, MIXING MAY LEAD TO SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS ONCE AGAIN. CAMS HAVE A RATHER
CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THEM THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY HINTING AT A
WIDESPREAD MVFR SNOW WITH POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR CONTAINED IN QUICK
HITTING HEAVIER CELLULAR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE
LOOKS TO LESSEN AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE HEATING.
SNOW WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AND CIGS WILL BE LOWER THE CLOSER
YOU ARE TO THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. AS SUCH, LBE AND DUJ FIND
THEMSELVES WITH THE MOST PESSIMISTIC TAFS OVER THE CURRENT
PERIOD.
GENERALLY EXPECT A 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. REASONABLE WORST CASE ONE HOUR SNOWFALL RATES REACH
ABOUT TO 0.3"/HR OUTSIDE OF DUJ/LBE WHERE 0.5-0.75"/HR RATES ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
STEADY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH VIS IMPROVEMENT FOR ALL BUT LBE/DUJ WHICH ARE
STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN DETERIORATED IN SNOW. AS LOCALIZED
TROUGHING CONTINUES AND LOBES OF VORTICITY PASS BY, EXPECT THAT
WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, PERHAPS A BIT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT BENEATH
THE MID-LEVEL LOW.
OUTLOOK... VFR SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CROSSING SHORTWAVE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ016-073-
075-077.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ021-509.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...MLB/AK
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