141
FXUS61 KPBZ 181052
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
652 AM EDT MON OCT 18 2021
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY A THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE AS DRY AND SEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER WL BE MAINTAINED VIA BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH,
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT, ADVANCE FROM THE MIDWEST. SHOWER
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
OH, AS THE TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES THEN INDICATE
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING SETTING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDERNEATH.
GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, THOUGH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH COULD
RETURN MINIMAL/SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN AND RESULT
IN GUSTS NWLY 20-25KTS FOR THOSE EAST OF ZZV. ONCE MIXING CEASES,
WIND WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH A SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK
VFR WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL RAIN CHANCES AND RESTRICTIONS
RETURN WITH A THURSDAY COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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