393
FXUS61 KPBZ 020544
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
144 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL MESSAGING OF ONGOING HEAT WAVE BEFORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RISE THROUGH THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND REMAINS UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT WAVE CONTINUES WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEADLINES TO BE
EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY PENDING TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
OCCURRENCES.
2) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RISE THROUGH THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND WITH
VARYING SEVERE HAZARD POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE HEAT WAVE DRIVEN BY UPPER RIDGING REMAINS A HIGH CONFIDENCE
EVENT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE REGION CONTINUES TO SEE DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES ECLIPSING 100 DEGREES.
PREVIOUS UNCERTAINTY IN FRIDAY'S HEAT RISK IMPACTS ARE NOW LOW
WITH PROBABILITIES SHIFTING TOWARD LATER ARRIVAL OF ANY CLOUD
COVER THAT MAY STYMIE DIURNAL HEATING.
THAT QUESTION NOW SHIFTS TO SATURDAY WHERE CURRENT MEAN MAX TS
SEES MINIMAL LOWERING FROM FRIDAY'S EXPECTED READINGS WHILE AREA
HUMIDITY VALUES GO UNCHANGED AS A RESULT OF DELAYED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER. IN SUCH SCENARIO, AN
EXTENSION OF HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED TO HIGHLIGHT CONTINUED
RISKS FROM HEAT INDICES HITTING/EXCEEDING 100. BUT IF TRENDS
SHIFT TOWARDS GREATER CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER CONVECTION, THEN
MOST LOCALES MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT HEADLINE CRITERIA (HEAT
INDICES 100 OR GREATER).
DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE MORE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS UPPER PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALL WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE. BUT
HEAT-RELATED RISKS MAY STILL LINGER SUNDAY PENDING CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION; NOTABLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE 70 DEGREES (DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND HIGH
DEWPOINTS) THAT CAN LIMITS THE OVERNIGHT RELIEF TYPICALLY SEEN
DURING SUMMER NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND OUTLOOK REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE UPPER
RIDGE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN WITH A LIKELY PUSH OF A DEEPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SUBTLE WAVES PLUS RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS FROM CONVECTION NORTH/WEST
OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE KEY IN PROVIDING THE
LIFT THAT HAS BEEN LACKING FOR STORM INITIATION ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE GREATER UPPER SUPPORT AND SURFACE FRONTAL
MOVEMENT PLAY LARGER ROLES IN STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE FORMER CREATES LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORM
FORMATION/COVERAGE/TIMING WITHIN A HIGH CAPE, LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE
LATTER CREATES HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORM FORMATION/COVERAGE
(BUT STILL SOME TIMING VARIABILITY) WITHIN A MODEST CAPE, MODEST
SHEAR, HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT LIKELY LENDING TO LOWER SEVERE
RISKS BUT INCREASED FLOODING RISKS.
IT REMAINS LIKELY THAT MODELS WILL STRUGGLE IN PORTRAYING
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY GIVEN THAT WEAK LIFT
AND RELIANCE ON OUTCOMES NORTH/WEST OF THE REGION. THOSE
PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND/OR EVENTS FOR JULY 4TH THESE
DAYS SHOULD KNOW THAT UNDERSTANDING ON RISKS AND TIMING MAY NOT
FULLY CRYSTALLIZE UNTIL THE MORNING OF AND THUS REQUIRES A
"FOLLOW THE TRENDS" IN FORECAST OUTPUT TO UNDERSTAND THE
RISING/FALLING RISKS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH OCCASIONALLY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 15KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING MAY YIELD ANYWHERE FROM A FEW TO BKN
COVERAGE OF CU BETWEEN 14Z-18Z THAT QUICKLY THINS AND CLEARS AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER.
PLEASE NOTE THAT PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO
DAWN BUT IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN ANY TERMINAL IMPACTS.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY (AND POTENTIALLY BEYOND) AHEAD OF AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHILE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLOWLY RISE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (TODAY):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 95/1966
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 97/1966
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/2018
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 73 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/2018
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 73 RECORD: 76/1903
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 73 RECORD: 71/1903
--
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 99/1966
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 98/1898
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 99/1966
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 99/1898
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 94 RECORD: 100/1911
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 77/1903
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1898
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 78/1935
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-077.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-509.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ510-511.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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