317
FXUS61 KPBZ 300533
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
133 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUANCE OF AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR OHIO ZONES WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER EXPANSION OF THIS HEADLINE IN THE COMING
DAYS. EVEN THEN, OVERALL MESSAGING REMAINS THE SAME AND THE
RISKS POSED TO THE PUBLIC ARE FRAMED SIMILARLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MULTI-DAY HEAT WAVE THAT POSE RISKS TO
PUBLIC HEALTH IF OUTDOORS OR WITHOUT COOLING CAPABILITIES.
2) PATTERN SHIFT INCREASES RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING
SEVERE THREATS, DURING THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE (I.E SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDERNEATH A
STOUT UPPER RIDGE) STRONGLY FAVORS THE PERSISTENCE OF DRY
WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHTS
LOWS END UP VARYING A DEGREE OR TWO FROM CURRENT FORECASTED
VALUES, BUT THIS WILL NOT REDUCE THE HEAT RISK THE REGION IS SET
TO EXPERIENCE. ELEVATED DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TO AID HEAT
INDICES TO REGULARLY TOUCH 100 THIS WEEK WHILE LIMITING THE
DEGREE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
NUMEROUS STUDIES SHOW THAT THE LACK OF COOLING OVERNIGHT DURING
SUCH HEAT WAVES CAN BE JUST AS IMPACTFUL, IF NOT MORE SO, TO
THE HEALTH/SAFETY OF THE PUBLIC AND MAINTENANCE OF KEY
ELECTRICAL INFRASTRUCTURE; THESE FACTORS ARE WEIGHED IN NATIONAL
GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA/NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
HEAT RISK TOOL THAT SHOWS THE ENTIRE REGION REMAINING IN EITHER
A LEVEL 3 (MAJOR) OR LEVEL 4 (EXTREME) OUT OF 4 HEAT RISK LEVEL
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES NOW IN EFFECT
ATTEMPT TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES AT THIS TIME, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE WARNING IN COMING DAYS
AS PROBABILITIES RISE FOR THOSE HEAT IMPACTS THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
REGARDLESS OF HEADLINE STATUS, IT REMAINS BEST TO START
PRACTICING HEAT RISK MITIGATION EFFORTS NOW. MORE INFORMATION ON
HEAT-RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT-TOOLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY TARGETS THE LATE FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND
PERIOD FOR THE EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE REGION'S UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THE MOVEMENT OF MULTIPLE WAVES OVER THE RIDGE TOP. ANY
GRANULAR DETAILS BEYOND INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
SLIGHTLY LOWERING TEMPERATURE REMAINS VARIED AND FAIRLY USELESS
GIVEN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THAT
INFORMATION. THE LARGER POINT IS THAT, CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE
BREAKDOWN OF A STRONG RIDGE PRODUCING A HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY LENDS TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE RISKS
WHEN THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR. FORTUNATELY, THIS IS BACKED UP BY
VARIOUS LONG-RANGE ML SEVERE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CIPS ANALOGS
(AND IS NOT JUST UNFOUNDED CLAIMS).
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL HIGHER IMPACT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH PLANNED
HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES DURING THE WEEKEND, IT IS PRUDENT FOR
DECISION MAKERS TO BE ALERT OF THIS RISK AND CONTINUE TO TRACK
THE LATEST OUTLOOKS IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH ANY PRE-DAWN FOG
MAINLY CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS (NOT IMPACTING TERMINALS) AND
LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF MVFR CIG WITH DEVELOPING/RISING CU
FIELDS BETWEEN 14Z-17Z. THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, A
VERY ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT GIVEN
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITH AN EVEN LOWER PROBABILITY FOR THAT
SHOWER TO IMPACT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z.
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT THROUGH UPSTATE NY MAY GENERATE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FKL/DUJ AFTER 02Z
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
UPPER RIDGING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER
AND VFR THROUGH THE WEEK WITH CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN NOT
APPEARING LIKELY UNTIL THE WEEKEND (AT WHICH POINT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RISE).
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 94 RECORD: 93/1964
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 72 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 70 RECORD: 74/1933
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 73 RECORD: 74/1934
--
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 97 RECORD: 96/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 98/1901
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 99/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 75/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 71/2014
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/1913
--
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 98 RECORD: 95/1966
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 97 RECORD: 97/1931
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 100/1898
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/2018
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/2018
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 76/1903
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 73 RECORD: 71/1903
--
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 77/1903
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1898
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 78/1935
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>075-077-078.
OH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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