996
FXUS61 KPBZ 240102
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATES MADE TO TAFS TO REFLECT CURRENT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT AMID CONTINUED SHOWERS
2) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (1-2 INCHES LAST NIGHT) HAVE DROPPED
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES TO LESS THAN 1 IN/HR AND <1.5
IN/3HRS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO. AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS
ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED. THIS SETS UP ENHANCED FLOODING CONCERNS
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CROSS THE
REGION.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION. STORM-LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL TO OUR WEST. COMBINED, THIS SETUP IS
FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
EFFICIENT WARM-RAIN PROCESSES. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AN AXIS OF 1-3" RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE
OF THIS OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR ERIE TO
ZANESVILLE.
FOR THESE REASONS, THE FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN OHIO WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 2AM SUNDAY. AREAS FARTHER EAST (I.E. WESTERN PA)
HAVE A MUCH-LOWER PROBABILITY FOR FLOODING, OWING TO LESS
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT, AND A LESS-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE MIDWEST. MUCH OF SUN IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, THOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE MET. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM W-E LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO SUN NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION MON MORNING,
WITH DECREASING POPS FROM NW-SE THROUGH THE DAY.
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL BE
BETWEEN A NE CONUS TROUGH, AND A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION,
RESULTING IN PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED, UNTIL LATE
WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS BLOSSOMED A BIT TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF
PITTSBURGH, AND ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM NEAR ERIE TO ZZV. THE
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD PIT/AGC/HLG
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THIS PLUME WILL CONCURRENTLY BE
SHUNTED TO THE EAST, LIMITING ITS TENURE IN SW PA. ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SHOWERS WILL TRAIN, OFFERING A NARROW, FOCUSED
REGION OF POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL RAINFALL, BUT WITH LIMITED
IMPACT TO TERMINALS.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN WITH NEWD PROGRESS AS THE AIRMASS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH IS STRONGLY STABLE, THUS LIMITING
INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS AS THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS THRU THE REGION, LEAVING A
MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIRMASS IN THEIR WAKE. AS SUCH, HIGH
CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 80%) REMAINS IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SUN AT ALL AIRPORTS. REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY MAY BE LIMITED BY PERSISTENT WIND, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A
BETTER-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE.
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE 12 KNOT
THRESHOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HISTORICAL WINDIER
PLACES IN THIS REGIME (LBE, DUJ, AGC, PIT, AND MGW) GUSTING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UPWARDS OF 25-30 KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARD MORNING.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY INTO SUN AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP WHEN STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS
PROBABLE. THESE COULD ONCE AGAIN POSE A THREAT OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE OF FURTHER VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
CIGS COULD REMAIN IFR UNTIL MID-MORNING ON MEMORIAL DAY. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST
LATE SUN NIGHT, LEAVING A NEAR-SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER.
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY (POTENTIALLY LIFR OR LESS) ARE POSSIBLE
BY EARLY MON MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE
ABUNDANT RAINFALL OCCURS ON SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ039-040-048>050-
057>059-068-069.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012.
DISCUSSION...WM/RACKLEY/KRAMAR
AVIATION...KRAMAR/MCMULLEN
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