856
FXUS61 KPBZ 051133
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
733 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FROST
ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COULD BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE
MAIN JET REMAINS TO THE NORTH, HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF A MID
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS IS KEEPING THE
UPPER OH VALLEY DRY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.
THE ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE UNDER PLAYING THE LOWER TEMPERATURES
AND HAVE BEEN A COUPLE DEGREE TOO WARM. HAVE ADJUSTED THIS DOWN
A COUPLE DEGREES. WITH THE COOLER DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING
SKIES TODAY, EXPECT SOME FROST TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS, A FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
THE NBM PROBS ARE GIVING WELL OVER 70% PROBABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL MAY COME FROM
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY BEING
MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OUR DRY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE REGION AT
THIS TIME. ALONG THE FRONT, PORTS CAN SEE ABOUT AN HOUR OF SCT
VFR LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, CLEAR SKIES AND RIVER VALLEY FOG
CONTINUE THIS MORNING. HLG/MGW/DUJ ARE SEEING VARYING LEVEL OF
RESTRICTIONS IN THIS ACTIVITY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
CLOSER TO 13-14Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST WITH SOME MIDDAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. CLOUD COVER
WILL FEATURE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS.
TONIGHT YIELDS ANOTHER LARGELY CLOUD FREE AND CALM WINDS FOG
SETUP THAT WOULD AGAIN STRONGLY FAVOR FOG FORMATION IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. IMPACTS TO PORTS WOULDN'T BE GUARANTEED, BUT THE
USUAL CULPRITS (HLG/FKL/DUJ/MGW) WOULD BE THE PORTS TO WATCH.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
PAZ009-015-016-074-076>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
WVZ512>514.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AK
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