307
FXUS61 KPBZ 250754
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
354 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED TO NOTE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE MARGINAL RISK FOR
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SURROUNDED BY DRY DAYS, THURSDAY FEATURES ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OFFERING LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND HEIGHT RISES FAVOR DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND WEAKER JET ASCENT MAY LIMIT THE AREAL STORM
COVERAGE IN WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE A MORE WIDESPREAD, HIGH
PROBABILITY RAIN CHANCE. STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD EXPERIENCE
MODEST CAPE (AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG) AND WEAK SHEAR (AROUND
20KTS), JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE NON-ZERO SEVERE HAZARD RISK
(MAINLY DAMAGING WIND). THE BEST COMBINATION OF THESE
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND STORM COVERAGE IS GENERALLY EAST OF
I-79, WHERE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 3
OUTLOOK.
LINGERING TROUGHING (SFC/ALOFT) AND MOISTURE MAY FOSTER A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AMID PEAK
HEATING. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW AND EVENTUAL HEIGHT RISES LEND TO DRIER WEATHER PLUS
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE
MODEL VARIABILITY IS LARGER TO START THE NEXT WEEK BUT
SCENARIOS EXISTS SEVERE-FAVORING UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS WORTH
MONITORING IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
COLD NW FLOW OVER WARM GREAT LAKES WATER IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN
THE VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT-7KFT ACROSS WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN
PA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING TODAY. SUBTLE WEST WIND SHIFTS
AT FKL/DUJ COULD FOSTER A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 10Z-15Z
BEFORE RISING ABOVE 3KFT AGAIN. ELSEWHERE, CLEAR SKIES MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE, FAVORING ZZV.
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH VFR DECKS THAT
SLOWLY RISE/SCATTER AMID BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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