302
FXUS61 KPBZ 141753
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
153 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT HAS INCREASED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE UNTIL 9 PM. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT, WITH A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO PRESENT.
2) QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY;
MONITORING POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER ON THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHORTWAVE-INDUCED SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE I-80 CORRIDOR. CLOUD
THINNING IN THEIR WAKE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA, IS WORKING IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ON
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BUILD UP BUOYANCY. BETWEEN 750 AND 1000 J/KG
OF MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A LIKELY ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A FAIRLY SOLID LINE IS
ALREADY EVIDENT FROM SOUTHEAST MI THROUGH CENTRAL IN. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AREAWIDE THROUGH 01Z.
A LARGELY LINEAR MODE TO THE MAIN ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED AS IT ROLLS ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8-9PM,
GIVEN THE SHEAR ORIENTATION LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INITIALLY
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE WITH AROUND 40-45 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR
PRESENT. THESE WOULD MAINLY OCCUR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
PITTSBURGH BEFORE THE LINE CONSOLIDATES FURTHER. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH SPC INCREASING THE SEVERE
WIND RISK TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 55-70 MPH GUSTS IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE SHEAR AND OVERALL STRONG FLOW, LINE-EMBEDDED VORTICES AND A
QLCS TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
VEER A BIT TOWARDS SOUTHWEST WITH TIME, BUT ANY DUE EAST-MOVING
ELEMENTS WOULD BE BETTER ABLE TO INGEST STREAMWISE VORTICITY
AND WOULD NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THIS TORNADO THREAT WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AND THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAIL IS A
SECONDARY THREAT, LIKELY MORE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE INITIAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASES INTO THE 1.5 INCH TO 1.75 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER,
THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED BY SUFFICIENT STORM MOTION
AND WOULD DEPEND ON TRAINING STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL RAMP DOWN DURING THE EVENING, WITH THE
EVENT LARGELY WRAPPING UP IN THE 00Z TO 02Z PERIOD. A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DAWN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, EXPECT DRY AND
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
LINGERING CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-60S/LOW-70S ON
MONDAY, 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
BY THURSDAY, A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BRING RISING 500MB HEIGHTS
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK TO THE REGION. ALONG WITH THIS ARE
INDICATIONS OF ENHANCED FLOW, WITH 45-50 KNOTS AT 700MB AND
85-95 KNOTS AT 500MB ON ENSEMBLE PROGS. THIS COMBINATION
SUGGESTS AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THIS DAY,
ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM GREAT
LAKES LOW PRESSURE. MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE FROM NCAR AND CSU
AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INCREASING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS TO 30% TO 60%. SPC
ALSO HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED THURSDAY FOR THE RISK AS WELL.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION THAT COULD BE REALIZED,
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SITUATION THAT COULD PRESENT THE
RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MAY PROMOTE REPEATED ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, RAISING
CONCERNS FOR TRAINING STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AT THIS TIME,
THE GREATEST FLOOD RISK APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO FOCUS OVER AREAS JUST
WEST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, WPC HAS INTRODUCED A "SLIGHT"
RISK FOR FLOODING WITH THIS LATEST FORECAST UPDATE IN CENTRAL
OHIO.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HOWEVER, NEAR-TERM MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE LIES ON HOW MANY STORM AND WHERE THEY DEVELOP.
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH NW PA BETWEEN
19Z-22Z BEFORE CROSSING WEST CENTRAL PA (INCLUDING PIT) BETWEEN
20Z-24Z, AND EXITING SOUTHEAST BY 01-04Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE
IS LIKELY TO FEATURE MVFR CIGS, MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN,
FAIRLY FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 20
TO 40KT RANGE. POCKETS OF STRONG STORMS WITHIN THE LINE CAN'T BE
RULED OUT AND WOULD PUSH THE HIGHER END GUST POTENTIAL TOWARDS
50-58KTS.
COLD ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT CURRENTLY FAVORS A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO PERIODICALLY IFR STRATOCU DECK THAT
DISSIPATES/LIFTS AFTER DAWN MONDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
DECKS AND FOG IF THERE IS SCATTERING OF THE STRATOCU FIELD
ALLOW FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING NEEDED TO FOSTER
THESE LOWER RESTRICTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE RETURN
VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AS THE CU FIELD TRANSITIONS FROM BROKEN TO
FEW BY 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
LITTLE CHANGE IN IMPACTS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BUT THE APPROACH
OF AN ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MID-WEEK WILL
CREATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...FRAZIER/LUPO
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