171
FXUS61 KPBZ 030637
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
237 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DUE TO CONTINUED HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70, INCLUDING ALLEGHENY COUNTY. THE REST OF THE
MESSAGE REMAINS UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TODAY WITH EXTREME HEAT HEADLINES BEING
EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY FOR LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
2) THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES THROUGH THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND
WITH VARYING DEGREES OF SEVERE RISKS, PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WIND THREATS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE HEAT WAVE REMAINS ONGOING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STACKED
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING THE HOT, HUMID ENVIRONMENT RESULTING
IN 90+ DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100S.
SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER CREATES MORE DOUBT IN
THE CONTINUATION OF HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA INTO SATURDAY. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS SUCH ACTIVITY TO BE MORE FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHEAST OH THROUGH NORTHWEST PA AND THUS LIMITING
HEAT-RELATED CONCERNS. THAT EVIDENCE IS LESS CERTAIN FARTHER
SOUTH WHERE, IF SATURDAY STORMS DON'T FORM UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE STILL OCCURS, THERMAL RANGES
ARE LIKELY AGAIN TO APPROACH EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.
CONSIDERING THIS POSSIBILITY AND THE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WAS EXTENDED
FOR ZONES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. AT THAT POINT, THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS SHOULD AIDE IN TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.
THAT SAID, AREA TEMPERATURE IS UNLIKELY TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES UNTIL AFTER THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES MONDAY; VULNERABLE POPULATIONS MAY
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HEAT-RELATED ISSUES UNTIL SUCH TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
GRADUAL EROSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ITS SUBSIDENCE BEGINS
TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND TO OFFER
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THAT TIME.
FOR TODAY, SUCH EROSION IS MUCH MORE LIMITED AND PUTS INTO
QUESTION WHAT/WHERE WILL A STRONG-ENOUGH LIFTING MECHANISM OCCUR
TO INITIATE STORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY VARIABLE IN
THEIR PORTRAYAL OF CONVECTION EVOLUTIONS BUT THE EARLY SIGNAL
SUGGESTIONS A COMBINATION OF A LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE AND/OR
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION SHIFTING EAST
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAY BE THE FORCING MECHANISM OF FOCUS,
MEANING AREAS NEAR I-80 ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SUCH STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHETHER STORMS REMAIN ISOLATED
VERSUS MERGING INTO LINE CLUSTERS FOR THEIR STORM MODE IS
UNKNOWN, BUT THE LATTER DEVELOPMENT MAY BE NEEDED TO PUSH STORM
COVERAGE THE I-70 CORRIDOR. CONDITIONAL ON THESE STORMS
DEVELOPING, THE STORM ENVIRONMENT FEATURES HIGH CAPE (>2000
J/KG), LOW SHEAR (10-15KTS) AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT (DCAPE
VALUES >1100 J/KG) THAT SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH A
LOWER BUT NON- ZERO LARGE HAIL THREAT.
FOR SATURDAY, FURTHER RIDGE EROSION OFFERS SLIGHTLY MORE UPPER
SUPPORT TO STORM DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE CAPE (>1300 J/KG), DCAPE
(>800 J/KG), AND SHEAR (15-20KTS) ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
FAVOR DAMAGING WIND WITH LIMITED HAIL THREATS. HOWEVER,
TIMING/COVERAGE/EVOLUTION OF STORMS IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN
TODAY'S PROJECTION DUE TO HOW INFLUENTIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IN/NEAR THE REGION TODAY HAS ON SATURDAY'S OUTCOME. A PERUSAL
THROUGH VARIOUS CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS HIGHLIGHTS THE VAST
ARRAY ON TIMING, STORM MODES, AND COVERAGES WITHIN PLAY DUE TO
THE LIMITED NATURE OF UPPER FORCING/LIFT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF STORM PROGRESSION MAY NOT BE REALIZED
UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO INITIATION, LET ALONE THE MORNING OF,
SO THOSE WITH JULY 4TH PLANNED ACTIVITIES ARE ADVISED TO
PROACTIVELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST TO UNDERSTAND WHERE
STORM ACTIVITY IS TRENDING.
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED WEST OF
THE REGION WHILE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST OFFERS GREATER FOCUS FOR LIFT. THE RESULT IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FAVORING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, BUT VARIANCE IN HEATING PRIOR TO ONSET
AND LIMITED COOLING ALOFT PUTS INTO QUESTION THE DEGREE OF
SEVERE RISKS POSED. BEYOND THAT, THERE ARE HIGHER SIGNALS FOR
INCREASED FLASH FLOOD RISKS DUE TO PWATS RISING TOWARD THE 95TH
PERCENTILE AND SLOWER STORM-LEVEL FLOW. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW-MOVING, HEAVY RAIN THUNDERSTORMS ON
AREAS PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCING HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY/SATURDAY, FLOOD
WATCH PRODUCES MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PROBABILITY VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BE DISPLACED SOUTH.
ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY RESULT IN PATCHY RIVER VALLEY
FOG BETWEEN 08Z-12Z THIS MORNING BEFORE ERODING AFTER SUNRISE,
BUT IS UNLIKELY TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS SAVE MGW (WHERE BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS WERE SEEN IN A SIMILAR SETUP YESTERDAY MORNING).
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFT 20Z
THROUGH 06Z (MORE LIKELY NORTH OF I-70) BUT TIMING/COVERAGE IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY DEPENDENT ON HOW CURRENT CONVECTION
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN EVOLVES THIS MORNING. IF A STORM DOES DEVELOP
AND TRAVELS OVER A TERMINAL, EXPECT RAPID VSBYS FALLS TOWARDS
IFR WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
VFR FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WHILE UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AMID THE APPROACH/PASSAGE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EACH DAY SEES INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THAT ARE CAPABLE OF IFR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (TODAY):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 95/1966
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 97 RECORD: 97/1966
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
WHEELING WV AREA OBSERVED: 73 RECORD: 73/2018
MORGANTOWN WV AREA OBSERVED: 72 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA OBSERVED: 71 RECORD: 73/2018
PITTSBURGH PA AREA OBSERVED: 75 RECORD: 76/1903
ZANESVILLE OH AREA OBSERVED: 71 RECORD: 71/1903
--
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 99/1966
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 98/1898
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 99/1966
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 99/1898
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 100/1911
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 77/1903
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1898
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 78/1935
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020-022-077.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ021-029-
031-073-075.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ057>059-
068-069.
WV...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ002>004-
012-021-509.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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