196
FXUS61 KPBZ 110710
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
310 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGES/AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY CONDITIONS AND RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS TODAY.
2) A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND COULD RETURN GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THIS COULD PROMPT THE
END OF THE GROWING SEASON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO NEAR AN INCH OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE
RIDGES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM NOW
THROUGH 12PM WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THERE IS A NOTED
DRY SLOT TO OUR WEST THAT HIS CREATED A DRASTIC CUT-OFF IN
RAINFALL INTENSITY IN CENTRAL OHIO. OVERALL, RAINFALL TOTALS
(THROUGH EARLY MONDAY) WILL RANGE FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES. GIVEN OUR
DRIER CONDITIONS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT AND THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERED LOW (LESS
THAN 20%), THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING REMAINS LOW. CLOGGED STORM
DRAINS FOR FALLING LEAVES WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN ISOLATED
AREAS.
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE RIDGES WILL CONTINUE AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL FORCE RIDGE-
PERPENDICULAR SOUTH- EASTERLIES IN THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINA, WITH MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAVING
THE RIDGETOPS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 40MPH OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF FALLING TREE LIMBS AND ISOLATED IMPACTS TO THE POWER GRID.
PROBABILITY OF GUSTY CONDITIONS DECREASES BETWEEN 1PM AND 4PM
TODAY.
THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THE TROUGH EXITS EAST LATE THIS EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN 7PM AND
10PM. HOWEVER, THERE MIGHT BE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AND/OR RAIN
RESIDING ALONG THE RIDGES EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH UPSLOPING AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEK. GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG A COLD FRONT AND PLUNGING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN COULD SUPPORT THE END TO THE GROWING
SEASON.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
VENTURE ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN HAS RANGED FROM LIGHT TO
MODERATE AT TIMES AND WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIEST FROM 06Z TO 17Z
TODAY BEFORE DRY SLOT VENTURES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
WITH A STRONG VERTICAL WIND PROFILE, GUSTY CONDITIONS AND WIND
SHEAR ARE EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. ENHANCED
DOWNSLOPING MAY CREATE PERIODS OF VFR CIGS FOR LBE AND MGW DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE.
AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS GUSTS WILL LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN
20KTS-30KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR LBE/MGW (UP TO 25KTS-35KTS).
WIND WILL BEGIN TO EASE BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z TODAY.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP
CIGS LOW (MVFR TO IFR) EARLY MONDAY MORNING DESPITE DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM,
SOUTHWEST FLOW DISSIPATING ANY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CIGS.
A COLD FRONT MAY RETURN RESTRICTIONS LATE TUESDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ073>076-078.
OH...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ509>514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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