977
FXUS61 KPBZ 291527
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1127 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LATER NEXT WEEK FAVORS WARMER WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK,
WARMER WEATHER AND LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE SOUTH-WESTERN BASE FOR A
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE PATTERN WILL BRING A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF DRY, SEASONABLE WEATHER (HIGHS IN 70S, LOWS IN UPPER 40S/LOW
50S) THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE GONE
DOWN EVEN MORE IN EARLY WEEK WITH SHORTWAVES AROUND THE TROUGH
DISPLACED EAST IN MORE RECENT GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MID-WEEK WITH ENSEMBLES
INDECISIVE OF RIDGING OR THE STAGNATION OF A CLOSED LOW AROUND
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS MAY BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
REMAINING SEASONABLE OR TEMPERATURES TRENDING ~10F ABOVE
AVERAGE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, BUT MOST LIKELY DRY IN ANY SCENARIO.
NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN RIDGING
WINNING OUT, BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES
AFFILIATED WITH A DIGGING SURFACE FRONT LATE-WEEK WHICH WILL
ALSO RETURN THE NEXT SIZABLE CHANCE OF ANY RAIN. CIPS ALSO
ALLUDES THIS AS THE NEXT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DIURNAL MIXING IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR NEW
ENGLAND WILL YIELD OCCASIONAL 15 TO 20KT GUSTS FOR TERMINALS
NEAR AND TO THE E/NE OF KPIT THIS AFTERNOON.
A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLIPS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, CREATING A SHIFT TO NE WINDS AFTER 06Z WHILE
INTRODUCING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS.
OUTLOOK...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDERNEATH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
STRONGLY FAVORS VFR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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