621
FXUS61 KPBZ 081157
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
757 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ROUND WILL BE MORE SCATTERED BUT
PRESENT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
2) AFTER A BREAK ON SUNDAY, DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AND REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY, WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SEVERE AND
FLOODING THREATS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEPART AFTER 13Z OR SO WITH THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE. AFTER A LULL, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IN THE FLOW. WITH A DRIER OVERALL COLUMN BY THAT POINT AND
CORRESPONDINGLY MORE SUBDUED PWAT OF 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES, THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER. NEVERTHELESS, THAT
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TICK UP THE THREAT OF GUSTY TO
BORDERLINE SEVERE WINDS, AS 1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE
AND AROUND 1000 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE APPEAR LIKELY AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SECOND ROUND SHOULD END BY 06Z TONIGHT, AND THEN A NEEDED
BREAK STILL APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DRIER COLUMN AND MID-LEVEL
CAPPING THAT WOULD PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S, AFTER TODAY'S READINGS IN THE 70S,
SHOULD LEND A LESS STICKY FEEL TO THE AIR.
THE OVERALL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
RIPPLES CONTINUE TO RIDE THROUGH ON THE FLOW. HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL NEED CONTINUED SCRUTINY, AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL IN A CLIMATOLOGICAL SENSE. WPC WILL
LIKELY PLACE OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON THAT DAY.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOW AN UPTICK AS WELL, PARTICULARLY
EARLIER IN THE WEEK ACCORDING TO THE LONG-RANGE MACHINE-LEARNING
CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE. THIS MAKES SENSE, AS THIS PERIOD SHOWS THE
BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY, MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AMONG THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT WILL BE BETTER RESOLVED IN TIME.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH IMPACTING MGW AND
POSSIBLY LBE. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT PIT, AGC, AND
DUJ THIS MORNING.
AFTER PRECIPITATION LARGELY DEPARTS, LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND ACHIEVE VFR BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES. SOUTHWEST WIND MAY GUST TO BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS AS WELL. ANOTHER, MORE SCATTERED ROUND OF
CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BE HANDLED BY
PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH A DIRECT HIT AT ANY ONE AIRPORT
WILL BE A LITTLE LESS LIKELY, WIND GUSTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE STRONGER FOR THIS ROUND.
OUTLOOK...
SHORTWAVE RIDING SHOULD PROVIDE A NEEDED BREAK FROM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY. DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN
RETURN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING WITH
STUBBORN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...CL/LUPO
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