556
FXUS61 KPBZ 281206
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
806 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
2) WARMER AND MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURNING
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND EXIT THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS MIXING
BEGINS, AND WITH DRY ADVECTION IN NORTHERLY FLOW. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION UNDER BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING. EXPECT A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS/
STRATOCUMULUS LAYER TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY UNDER THIS TROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE MOISTURE DEPTH APPEARS SHALLOW ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE,
ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER INCREASING 500MB
HEIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A RIDGE FROM THE SE CONUS NORTHWARD TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COULD BRING SOME LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
TO AREAS NORTH OF I 80 MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BUILDING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER THE RIDGE, AND
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. MORE FAVORABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. WHILE THE PATTERN INDICATES SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER RETURNING BY MID WEEK, UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE DETAILS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING. THEREAFTER, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THE REST OF THE DAY, THOUGH
A BROKEN VFR CU/STRATOCU DECK WILL BE POSSIBLE. THAT CLOUD DECK
SCATTERS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, GIVING WAY TO
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS IN AND
AROUND RIVER VALLEYS.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MAINLY
NORTH OF I 80 MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK
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