677
FXUS61 KPBZ 122321
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
721 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR SUNDAY
WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE (WIND, HAIL, TORNADOES) FOR NOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY POTENTIALLY ANOTHER
CHANCE AT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CROSSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER ON SATURDAY,
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
BEHIND WHICH A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND
AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL WAVE MIGHT BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE
STORM RISK, THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ISENTROPIC-FUELED RAIN
PRECEDING THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD HINDER ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SCENARIOS (LIKE THE
12Z NAM NEST FOR EXAMPLE) WHERE LESS MORNING CLOUDS/RAIN ALLOWS
FOR GREATER DESTABILIZATION AND A CHANCE FOR MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION. THE NBM 25TH/75TH PERCENTILE SBCAPE RANGE AT
PITTSBURGH AT 18Z SUNDAY RANGES FROM ABOUT 375 J/KG TO CLOSE TO
1100 J/KG, ILLUSTRATING THE UNCERTAINTY. ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS SHOULD HAVE ABOUT 35-40KM OF DEEP SHEAR TO WORK WITH, SO
ORGANIZATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER-BUOYANCY
SCENARIOS. SPC CURRENTLY ELEVATED TO A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
SEVERE RISK FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST PA/NORTHERN WV ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DRY ADVECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL ERODE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. DAYTIME CU WILL COLLAPSE
AFTER SUNSET AND LEAVE JUST A FEW STREAKS OF FEW TO SCT CIRRUS
BEFORE THAT TOO EXITS IN THE LATE EVENING AND EXPECT SKIES WILL
GO SKC OVERNIGHT WITH VFR AND LIGHT TO VARIABLE WIND. ONE
EXCEPTION IS IF SURFACE DRY ADVECTION ARRIVES TOO LATE AT MGW
WHILE SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED
FOG FORMATION NEAR DAWN, BUT LATEST HI RES DATA AND LOW-LEVEL
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THE DRY AIR ADVANCING AND LOWERING
OF DEW POINTS SHOULD ARRIVE IN TIME TO PRECLUDE NEAR-DAWN FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
VFR REMAINS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SATURDAY BENEATH ZONAL MID-
LEVEL FLOW AND A QUICK BOUT OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT LITTLE MORE THAN SOME DIURNAL CU
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
RETURN SUNDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE OF MORNING
PRECIPITATION LENDS LOWER CONFIDENCE TO DEVELOPMENT OF
AFTERNOON STORMS, IMPACTS, AND RESTRICTION PROBABILITY.
HIGH PRESSURE PORTENDS TO DRY VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO START
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL/MILCAREK
AVIATION...FRAZIER/MLB
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