189
FXUS61 KPBZ 101651
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1251 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DAILY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE
DRIER AHEAD OF ANOTHER LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL
- ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT
---------------------------------------------------------------
STUBBORN LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS MORNING BUT IS TAKING
ITS TIME DOING SO. WHERE IT HAS CLEARED, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
RATHER QUICKLY WITH EFFICIENT SOLAR INSOLATION. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
INITIATION SHOULD BE OFF OF THE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL AS A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IN EAST-CENTRAL OHIO ON THE CLEAR SIDE
OF THE MORNING STRATUS AFTER 17Z. THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND WITHIN ANY OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS. CAMS SUGGEST UP TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH WEAK
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KNOTS. CORFIDI UPSHEAR VECTORS VALUES
ARE LOW, BUT A BIT MORE THAN WE'VE HAD IN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, ALSO
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE STRONGER STORMS TO BE
A BIT MORE TRANSIENT. STILL, WITH OUR 12Z SOUNDING OF A 1.34 PWAT,
WE'LL STILL HAVE SOME HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS AND A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THREAT IF ANY STORMS SIT OR TRAIN LONG ENOUGH OVER THE SAME
AREA. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE FROM DOWNBURSTS, THOUGH
THERE'S SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW VIGOROUS THE UPDRAFTS WILL BE ABLE
TO GET. OUR SOUNDING AND MOST OF THE 12Z CAMS DEPICT 1) A WARM LAYER
AROUND 700 MB THAT MAY ACT AS A CAP, AT LEAST UNTIL REPEATED
UPDRAFTS COULD ERODE IT, AND 2) A LOT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 600 MB,
POTENTIALLY ENOUGH TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT ABOVE IT. THIS MEANS THAT
UPDRAFTS COULD LOOK STRONG IN THE LOWER LEVELS, UP TO AROUND
FREEZING LEVEL TO -10C, BUT WITH NOT MUCH STRUCTURE ABOVE THERE AT
LEAST UNTIL WET-BULBING WOULD OCCUR AND COULD GROW THE CAPE PROFILE
A BIT. SO THE DOWNBURST THREAT WILL BE THERE CONTINGENT ON HIGHER
UPDRAFT HEIGHTS OF WHICH WE'D BE LOOKING SOLID FOR 50 DBZ RETURNS TO
REACH AROUND 19-20KFT.
TIMING OF STORMS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN AS
COLD POOL INTERACTION WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE
BEST WINDOW FOR OUR AREA WILL BE AFTER 12PM THROUGH SUNSET, STARTING
TO THE NORTH AND WEST BEFORE MEANDERING FARTHER SOUTH.
DRIER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD TONIGHT BUT EXPECT THAT ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FOG IS LIKELY GIVEN A STAGNANT AIRMASS AND PERSISTENCE. IT WILL BE
AT ITS MOST DENSE IN AREAS THAT SEEN RAIN TODAY, BUT PLENTY OF NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE, CALM WIND, AND SCATTERING CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT IT
ACROSS A LOT OF THE AREA AND IT COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS AGAIN. LOWS
WILL BE MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY
- HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH STRONGER STORMS
----------------------------------------------------------------
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED WEAK FLOW ALOFT, THOUGH SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR. ENSEMBLE MEAN PWAT VALUES REMAIN SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY AROUND 1.3-1.5" WITH WEAK FLOW AND A 50-80% CHANCE OF
SBCAPE VALUES >1500 J/KG EACH DAY. DCAPE VALUES SIT AROUND 800-1100
ACROSS THE 12Z CAMS AGAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN AND DOWNBURST THREAT. PEGGING DOWN EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IS A FOOL'S ERRAND, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT IT MAY BE MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN
WITH HIGHER COVERAGE IN THE RIDGES AND TO THE EAST, BUT WOULD
HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT REMNANT OUTFLOW AND THE LAKE BREEZE COULD
AGAIN PLAY A ROLE.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY AND INCREASED PROBABILITY AS HIGH AS 90% IN
THE URBAN AREAS AND VALLEYS (50-70% ELSEWHERE) TO REACH 90F
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- WETTER ON SUNDAY WITH A CROSSING BOUNDARY
- POTENTIALLY DRIER FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSAGE BY MID TO LATE WEEK
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
-------------------------------------------------------------------
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGS A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. THE BEST SHORTWAVE SUPPORT WILL TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ERIE,
BUT THERE WILL BE A PLENTY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO WORK UPON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT PASSES ON SUNDAY,
BUT THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS DIFFERENT TIMING WHICH
WOULD IMPACT ANY SEVERE OR FLOODING THREAT. MACHINE LEARNING
SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE A SEVERE THREAT, CONTINGENT ON AN AFTERNOON
TO EVENING TIMING, BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS LESS LIKELY
GIVEN STILL WEAK SHEAR AS THE STRONGEST FLOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH.
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING AS THE CAMS COME INTO PLAY.
A MORE POTENT MID-LEVEL WAVE SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY IN BETTER
AMPLIFIED FLOW AND COULD PROVIDE MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS, THOUGH ENSEMBLES DEVIATE A BIT HERE WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. SOME SUGGEST A SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WHILE OTHERS DON'T BRING THE HIGH IN QUITE
THAT QUICKLY AND ALLOW FOR ANOTHER UNSETTLED DAY ON MONDAY. NBM
STILL SUPPORTS 30-60% POPS, HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, BUT IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT THAT COULD TREND DRIER IF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS PROVE CORRECT. NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE IS LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT, SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOW INDICATIONS OF BEING DRIER ACROSS THE
BOARD AS AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE DOES SETTLE IN AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB WITH WARM ADVECTION IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BUMPING 90F
PROBABILITY BACK UP TO 50-70% ON TUESDAY AND 60-80% ON
WEDNESDAY, AGAIN HIGHEST IN THE URBAN AREAS. ENSEMBLES TRACK YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
AND RETURN RAIN CHANCES. STILL SEEING A GOOD BIT OF DISAGREEMENT
ON TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE RESPONSIBLE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT, BUT IT'S LESS LIKELY
THAT WE KEEP THE DRY WEATHER AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MIXING OF MOISTURE WILL LEND TO THE QUICK DAYTIME DEVELOPMENT
OF A FAIR WEATHER CU DECK WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME OF
THIS HAS COME IN AS A TEMPORARY MVFR BROKEN DECK WITH SCATTERING
TO VFR EXPECTED SHORTLY. THE MOST RECENT CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF ISOLATED DAYTIME STORMS IS 30% TO
50% FOR ALL PORTS SAVE LBE,DUJ, AND MGW WHICH ONLY MAXIMIZE
AROUND 15%. HENCE, TEMPOS TRIED TO TIME OUT THE MOST LIKELY
WINDOW AT PORTS WHERE CHANCES EXCEEDED 30%.
STORM CHANCES DECREASE AFTER 00Z, WITH AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN
FOG CHANCES YET AGAIN TONIGHT. IN A VERY SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO
THE DAY PRIOR, TAFS FOLLOWED A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH SOME
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS, TRACKING CLOSER TO HREF 5TH PERCENTILE VIS.
LINGERING FOG IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z TO 14Z ARE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH A THICKER FOG DECK, REFLECTING THE SLOW
CLEARING FROM THE DAY PRIOR. THIS WILL AGAIN GIVE WAY TO FAIR
WEATHER CU WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW.
OUTLOOK...
A WEAKLY FORCED BUT WARM/HUMID ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL ALLOW FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LIKELY TO BE LOWER ON
TIMING VARIOUS ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS THE RESULTANT
CIG/VSBY IMPACTS THEY COULD HAVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL AND SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVEMENT
APPEARS TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL CREATE A BETTER
FOCUSED PERIOD FOR CONVECTION AND RESTRICTION DEVELOPMENT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MLB
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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