175
FXUS61 KPBZ 280546
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
146 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN. OTHERWISE, DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL KEEP THE MAIN STEAM RIVERS ELEVATED
INTO TOMORROW
2) DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS FAVORED THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE QUIETER, MINUS
SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DUE TO RUNOFF FROM RECENT CONVECTION. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT PITTSBURGH TOMORROW; THE RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO CREST BETWEEN 18FT TO 19FT.
THE RECREATIONAL BOATERS ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY DUE
TO HIGH FLOW EXPECTED ALONG THE ALLEGHENY, MONONGAHELA, AND OHIO
RIVER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES
STILL SHOW SOME VARIATION IN CONDITIONS BETWEEN A TROUGH DUG
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, A WARM AND WET AIRMASS OVER THE SE
CONUS AND THE LARGE AMPLITUDE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. HOWEVER, THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO KEEPS US ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME PROMOTING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO ROUND THE CANADIAN TROUGH BUT POPS
LOOK RATHER LOW. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS WE GET MORE TROUGHING TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE EXITED OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT GIVING
WAY TO A DRY TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PASSING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A WEAK SHORTWAVE. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE
MOISTURE WHERE RAIN FELL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. WITH THAT, LIGHT
WIND, AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT, ALREADY SEEING A DECK OF LOW
STRATUS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING. HREF PROBS FOR
IFR OR LOWER ARE HIGH AT MGW WITH A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE FEW HOURS PRECEDING SUNRISE.
WITH THE ONSET OF MIXING THURSDAY MORNING, A QUICK RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND MIXING SHOULD DRIVE A FEW TO SCT DIURNAL CU DECK
IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
AREAWIDE VFR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/AK
AVIATION...MLB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page