794
FXUS61 KPBZ 251759
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
159 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS DROPPED AS THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
2) RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
3) BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY MAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY, HOWEVER, IF THEY DO DEVELOP, IT WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 6PM AS MID-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER
NEAR PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTY BETWEEN 6PM AND 9PM THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RIDGING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
MAINTAIN QUIET, DRY CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A NEW
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACKING NORTHEAST
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY TUESDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE
GENERAL AGREEMENT ACROSS THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TIMING OF THE LOW. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH COULD IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. DEPENDING ON THE THE DEGREE OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND
HEATING, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN LATE WEEK INTO EARLY MAY. AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST
U.S. WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK AND REMAIN RELATIVELY
STATIONARY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE PATTERN MAY REINTRODUCE AT
LEAST FROST HEADLINES, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE
30S. HOWEVER, SEVERAL FACTORS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, PARTICULARLY
CLOUD COVERAGE AND WIND, BOTH WHICH PLAY A KEY ROLE ON
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND FROST DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE/EXIT EAST THROUGH 22Z AS SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT. WEAK DRY ADVECTION COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION FAVORS MVFR TO IFR STRATOCU
THAT LOWERS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH LATE AFTERNOON HEATING MAY CAUSE
SITES FROM ZZV THROUGH PIT TO BOUNCE UP/DOWN A FLIGHT CATEGORY
DUE TO MIXING.
HI-RES MODELING FAVORS AN AREA OF IFR/LIFR STRATUS WITH SPOTTY
FOG TO FIRST DEVELOP NEAR FKL/DUJ (NEAR 100%) SHORTLY AFTER 00Z
THAT THEN SPREADS SE THROUGH 12Z TOWARDS ZZV (ABOUT 60%); DRY
ADVECTION BEHIND A NE WIND SHIFT THEN STARTS TO IMPROVE OR EVEN
SCATTER STRATUS ALONG THIS SAME PATH STARTING AT DAWN. THIS
REMAINS MORE OF AN OUTLIER IN CEILING PROGRESSION THAN OTHER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS A MORE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
LOWERING FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL DAYTIME IMPROVEMENTS. TAF IS A
BLEND OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS (FAVORING NE TO SW IMPROVEMENTS BUT
DELAYING IMPROVEMENT ONSET TIMING). EITHER WAY, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORED BY SUNDAY EVENING AREAWIDE (PROBABILITIES AT/ABOVE
70%).
OUTLOOK...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS (WITH LOW PROBABILITY
THUNDERSTORMS) RETURN TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. PERIODIC PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTION CHANCES
ARE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS THE
WEATHER PATTERN TRENDS TOWARD GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGHING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN/LUPO
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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