960
FXUS61 KPBZ 022308
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
708 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND.
2) WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH SATURDAY A BETTER DAY FOR
OUTDOOR EVENTS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I70.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NBM TRANSITION-SEASON WARM BIAS ALLOWED KNOCKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM DETERMINISTIC HIGHS, TO BE
MORE ALIGNED WITH UN-BIAS-CORRECTED MODELS. THE BIAS CORRECTION
USING VIOLIN PLOTS ILLUSTRATES ABOUT A THREE DEGREE CORRECTION
ON THE WARM SIDE. WITH THAT SAID, WE ARE FORECASTING GENERALLY
UPPER-70S TO LOW-80S WEDNESDAY, THEN GENERALLY LOW- TO- MID 80S
BY FRIDAY WITH HEIGHTS BETWEEN 582DM TO 588DM. MINOR HEAT RISK
IS FORECAST FOR MOST BY THE END OF THE WEEK (IMPACTS TO THOSE
PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO HEAT). URBAN AREAS IN AND AROUND THE
CITY OF PITTSBURGH COULD TOUCH 90F FRIDAY WITH A 55-60% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDANCE BASED ON NBM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY (80% CHANCE) WITH AN
INFRINGING EASTERN TROUGH. TIMING IS BECOMING FINE TUNED, BUT
IT APPEARS THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY (THROUGH LATE MORNING)
SHOULD BE DRY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WITH
SHOWERS ENCROACHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST QPF TOTAL SHOW AN INTERQUARTILE
RANGE /IQR/ BETWEEN 0.00 TO 0.35" SATURDAY WITH REASONABLE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEARING AN INCH NORTH OF US 422. THIS WON'T BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HIGH WATER ISSUES GIVEN THE RECENT RUN OF
DRY WEATHER.
SUNDAY IS LOOKING WET WITH MOST PLACES SEEING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL />0.01"/. IT WON'T BE A WASHOUT, BUT FOR OUTDOOR
EVENTS AND GRADUATION PARTIES THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD FOR
A SHOWER OR STORM. QPF GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE /PWATS ~
1.3"/ AND LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING YIELDS A LOWER IQR
THAN SATURDAY, SO AGAIN NOT SEEING A HIGH WATER RISK.
MOST NCAR ML CONVECTIVE HAZARD FORECASTS AND CIPS GENERALLY SHOW
A LOW-END RISK /5-15%/ FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
IN THE EVENT THAT THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE DOES MATERIALIZE. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORM APPEARS TO BE STRONG WIND.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED 30 HR TAF
WINDOW. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY TOMORROW AND ARE
EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CU NEAR 5KFT BUT LARGE PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD
BE SKC.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PROBABILITY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.
RESTRICTION CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK/MCMULLEN
AVIATION...RACKLEY/AK
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