874
FXUS61 KPBZ 061746
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
146 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS EXTENDED TO THE REST OF
THE PA COUNTIES IN OUR AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GREENE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11AM TO 11PM EDT ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE REGION DUE TO RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
2) MORE LIMITED FLOOD RISKS REMAIN FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TUESDAY.
3) NON-ZERO SEVERE AND FLOOD RISKS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE AREA WILL FEATURE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW SET UP A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW CENTER IN NE OHIO AND A BOUNDARY
ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SO ROUGHLY FROM THE YNG TO LBE
IS THE GENERAL SETUP OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MORNING 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A 1.82 PWAT, JUST ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. THUS, WE WILL HAVE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS AGAIN. THIS WITH THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG SB CAPE THAT IS
FORECASTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
WILL GIVE WAY TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WATER LOADED DOWNBURSTS
AND COULD LEAD TO WIND DAMAGE IN THE AREAS OF THE MARGINAL.
WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING AND PLAN FOR A SEVERE THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SAGGING TROUGH IS FAVORED TO BEGIN CROSSING THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AGAIN A FOCUSED AREA
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, BUT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREA.
STILL MODELS, ARE GIVING 1.70 INCH PWAT, STILL A RATHER
SATURATED AIRMASS AND MAKING THE THREAT OF FLOODING FOR ANOTHER
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW STORMS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURST AS WELL WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS COULD ONCE AGAIN,
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY IS FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE CALMER WEATHER CONDITIONS
BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CROSSES.
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SOMETIME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH SOME VARIANCES AMONG GLOBAL
MODELS IN ITS DEPTH/TIMING AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY
TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TN RIVER VALLEY. FINER
DETAILS ARE TOO CLOUDY TO STATE MUCH BEYOND SUGGESTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE; THAT SAID,
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT, PENDING HOW THE PATTERN DEVELOPS, SEVERE
AND FLOODING RISKS COULD RETURN TO VARYING DEGREES. IT IS BEST
TO JUST BE AWARE OF THIS POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR
FORECAST TRENDS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ALREADY SEEING SHRA/TSRA POPPING UP IN THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR/SOUTH OF A WAVY SURFACE BOUNDARY. COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH IMPACTS AT ANY ONE
TAF SITE WILL COME IN BRIEF PERIODS. HAVE USED 4 HOUR TEMPO
GROUPS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES FOR NOW. ANY OF THE
HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A 15 OR 30 MINUTE
PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN, AS WELL AS PERIODS OF CLOUD-
TO-GROUND LIGHTING AND PERHAPS A BRIEF BOUT OF GUSTY WIND.
MULTIPLE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY LOCATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAIN, SATURATED GROUND, AND A STAGNANT
AIRMASS, ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AFTER SUNSET, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT CAN CLEAR MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER 04Z. FKL/DUJ ARE CURRENTLY THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LIFR
IMPACTS, BUT SUCH FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY SITE
THAT IS IMPACTED BY STORMS.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, IMPROVEMENT IN CEILING/VISIBILITY MAY
BE SLOW GIVEN THE SOUPY AIRMASS. MVFR MAY BE ACHIEVED BY 14/15Z,
AND PERHAPS VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
VFR SHOULD RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH LATER
IMPROVEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE, AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING (FAVORING SOUTHEAST OF KPIT).
DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT MOST TERMINALS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AMID BRIEF SUBSIDENCE BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH PROVIDES WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE IN
THE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-073>078.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ040-041-050.
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001-002.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...CL
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