947  
FXUS61 KPBZ 100754  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
354 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-TO-ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES SUNDAY  
EVENING INTO MONDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/  
 
EXPECT BRIEF RIDGING TODAY WHICH WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL  
SUBSIDENCE. WIND DIRECTION WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE WEST, WITH  
AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS ANTICIPATED. EFFICIENT, SMOKE FREE  
HEATING AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.  
 
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT LATER  
TODAY AND DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CURRENT MODEL  
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITIONING.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT. RESULTING  
UPPER CIRRUS WILL LIKELY THICKEN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE  
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  
 
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION,  
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN ON THE SOUTH TO  
SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. CURRENT MODEL DATA SHOWS THE  
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH METRO TO BE SOMETIME  
SUNDAY EVENING OR EARLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  
 
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS PUTS  
THE PITTSBURGH AREA IN A MORE FAVORABLE REGION FOR QPF THAN  
PRIOR FORECASTS. THIS BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY  
CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
USING MULTI-MODEL CLUSTERING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE  
UPPER LOW WILL HANG AROUND EASTERN MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN  
ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINTAINING INTERMITTENT  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG PASSING SHORTWAVES IN MAINTAINED  
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. ENSEMBLES ARE DIVERGENT IN HOW THE LOW  
IS REINTEGRATED INTO FLOW DURING MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS PAST  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS  
INDICATE SCT CU DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. CIRRUS WILL  
INCREASE BY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS  
TROUGH.  
   
OUTLOOK  
 
RESTRICTIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH A SUN NIGHT AND  
MON COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE/WED IN  
SCATTERED SHOWERS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH.  
 
 
   
CLIMATE  
 
PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IS SIZABLE DRY STREAKS  
AT SOME OBSERVING SITES. THE LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT  
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND CURRENT STREAKS ARE (AS OF JUNE 9TH):  
 
CLIMATE SITE RECORD STREAK CURRENT STREAK  
____________________________________________________________  
PITTSBURGH 26 DAYS, 1874 20 DAYS  
DUBOIS 23 DAYS, 1988 19 DAYS (ENDED TODAY)  
ZANESVILLE 44 DAYS, 1963 20 DAYS  
NEW PHILADELPHIA 27 DAYS, 1963 20 DAYS  
WHEELING 27 DAYS, 1947/1884 20 DAYS  
MORGANTOWN 36 DAYS, 1908 6 DAYS  
 
 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...22  
NEAR TERM...22  
SHORT TERM...22/MILCAREK  
LONG TERM...MILCAREK  
AVIATION...WM  
CLIMATE...MILCAREK  
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