528
FXUS61 KPBZ 260557
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1257 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPSLOPE IN THE RIDGES PROVIDES
MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ON MONDAY
- EXTREME COLD WARNING ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MONDAY
NIGHT
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
2) EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS -25F MONDAY NIGHT
3) PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PERSISTENT
TROUGHING PATTERN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. STRONG 925-850 MB LAYER
COLD ADVECTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES NOTABLY
WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE -20C. ENOUGH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE, MARGINAL INSTABILITY, AND ASCENT FROM THE WAVE WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL FOR MOST AT AN INCH OR LESS SAVE THE
RIDGES WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER 1-3
INCHES. DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR THE WESTMO AND
FAYETTE RIDGES FOR BEST ENHANCEMENT. THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, HREF PROB
FOR 1" IS 70+% IN ALL OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES WITH A 50-60%
CHANCE OF 3" IN WESTMO AND FAYETTE. FOR THESE REASONS, AND WITH
CONTINUED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION, HAVE
KEPT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS RIDING THROUGH EXPIRATION AT NOON ON
MONDAY. IF THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT PROVES EVEN MORE POTENT THAN
FORECAST, CAN'T RULE OUT EXTENSION OF THE WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS,
BUT EXPIRATION ON TIME SHOULD BE WARRANTED ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONTINUED EAST COAST TROUGHING WILL ALLOW FOR COLD CANADIAN AIR TO
FILTER SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW THAT BROUGHT OUR MAJOR WEEKEND WINTER STORM, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT BETWEEN IT AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE DIVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AS A NOTABLY DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS IN WITH DEW POINTS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS,
THE FLOOR FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY.
NOT EXPECTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, BUT NBM MEAN IS
SUGGESTING LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. WITH A DEEP, COLD SNOWPACK,
THOSE VALUES MIGHT EVEN BE A TAD TOO WARM, SO HAVE LEANED A BIT
TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WITH A 70-90% CHANCE OF MINTS
<0F AND ELEVATED GRADIENT WIND OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS STILL TO 15-20
MPH, WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD AS LOW AS -20F IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND -30F IN THE RIDGES, PARTICULARLY EASTERN TUCKER
COUNTY. FOR THAT REASON, HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA RUNNING 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 11AM TUESDAY. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL REBOUND INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT ONLY GET AS HIGH AS THE
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS THE PREVIOUS KEY MESSAGES STARTED OFF WITH THE PERSISTENT
TROUGHING, SO DOES THIS ONE. SAID MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
STAGNANT FOR THE EAST COAST WHILE RIDGING DOMINATES WEST OF THE
ROCKIES. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE WON'T BE ABLE TO BREAK THE MONOTONY UNTIL AT
LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. LOCALLY, THIS MEANS WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES DRIVEN BY PASSING WAVES.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH FREEZING THROUGH
FRIDAY IS LESS THAN 5%; YOU HAVE TO GET TO SUNDAY TO EVEN SEE DOUBLE
DIGIT PROBABILITIES INTRODUCE THEMSELVES, AND BY THAT TIME THERE'S
ENOUGH SPREAD IN THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN TO LEND LOWER CONFIDENCE
ANYWAY. BOTTOM LINE: IT'S GOING TO BE COLD FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. COLD WEATHER IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA REALLY RAMP UP WHEN THE
DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE REMAINS AT 15F OR LOWER FOR 48 HOURS OR
MORE. WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID TEENS AND LOWS IN THE
POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, THIS WILL
BE THE CASE FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS. IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND
WINTER STORM, THIS IS A GOOD TIME (ESPECIALLY BEFORE MONDAY NIGHT)
TO TAKE PREVENTATIVE MEASURES TO PROTECT PIPES, PLANTS, PETS, AND
PEOPLE. RIVER ICE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AND THICKEN INTO EARLY
FEBRUARY AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH
WITH POST FRONTAL RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
------------------------------------------------------------
THE PARENT LOW HAS NOW LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXITING
THROUGH CENTRAL PA CURRENTLY. BEHIND THE FRONT A POST FRONTAL
TROUGH SEEMS TO BE SET TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CONTINUED
RESTRICTIONS. THUS, WILL KEEP IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH ISOLATED RESTRICTIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES
OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIFTING OF THE CIGS TO MVFR BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
A CROSSING COLD FRONT. CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
WEDNESDAY UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN SNOW AND RESTRICTION POTENTIAL THURSDAY. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY UNDER A CROSSING UPPER
TROUGH.
CLIMATE
AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL CHALLENGE SOME AREA RECORDS
FOR DAILY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DURATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES.
VARIOUS COLD RECORDS ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
DAILY COLD RECORDS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN:
DUBOIS, PA (1/27 DAILY LOW RECORD) -5F (2003)
PITTSBURGH, PA (1/30 DAILY LOW RECORD) -5F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH (1/30 DAILY LOW RECORD) -4F (2019)
DUBOIS, PA (1/30 DAILY LOW RECORD) -10F (2019)
WHEELING, OH (1/30 DAILY LOW RECORD) -5F (2019)
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH TEMP BELOW <=25F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 15 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 3RD, 1961
2) 12 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 6TH, 2018
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 26TH, 1989
T2) 12 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 19TH, 1958
5) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 16TH, 1958
T5) 11 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
MOST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH MINIMUM TEMP <=10F IN PITTSBURGH:
1) 14 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 2ND, 1936
T1) 14 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 17TH, 1912
3) 11 DAYS - ENDING DECEMBER 24TH, 1989
T3) 11 DAYS - ENDING JANUARY 13TH, 1981
5) 10 DAYS - ENDING FEBRUARY 21ST, 2015
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-509>514.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...MLB
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER/88
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