108
FXUS61 KPBZ 062259
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
659 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS PROVIDES QUIET WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LIKELY TO
ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WHICH WILL LOCALLY
USHERING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS AND KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY AND
PLEASANT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE IS FORECAST BOTH SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS (UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80).
500MB HEIGHTS RISE AFTER MONDAY AS A NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OPENS AND DEPARTS, ALLOWING A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD INTO A WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS (MID/UPPER
80S). THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST REGIONS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WITH AFTERNOON PERIODS OF FEW TO SCATTERED CU BETWEEN 3-6KFT
AND LIGHTER EASTERLY WIND IS HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
WHILE DRY ADVECTION SHOULD EASE FOG CONCERNS AT MOST TERMINALS,
ENOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE NEAR FKL MAY RESULT IN SIMILAR
VISIBILITY/CEILING DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 08Z-12Z AS THE PRIOR
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS VFR THROUGH MID
WEEK, SAVE FOR LOW PROBABILITY RIVER VALLEY FOG.
LOW PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER TERRAIN AREAS RETURNS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES (AND RESULTANT
RESTRICTIONS) WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/WM/LUPO
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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