676
FXUS61 KPBZ 261751
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
151 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 2
KEY MESSAGES
1) LITTLE IMPACTS FROM THE NOR'EASTER THROUGH MONDAY
2) CONTINUED DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER BEFORE A LATE WEEK FRONT
RETURNS PRECIPITATION, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COME
BACK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR'EASTER MOVES WESTWARD. AS OF NOW, THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE /<25%/ OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAINLY EAST
OF I-79. CAN NOT RULE OUT SPRINKLES AS FAR WEST AS I-77 SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WON'T BE A WASHOUT IN ANY AREA, BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO AN
OVERCAST SKY, TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY PULL BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SAVE FOR AREAS WEST OF I-77 WHO WILL SEE MORE
SUNSHINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COME TUESDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR'EASTER WILL
BE OUT OF OUR AREA. THIS ALLOWS A TRANSITORY H5 RIDGE AXIS TO
MOVE IN RETURNING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD 70S. LATEST PROBS OF
MAXT 80F OR GREATER CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR NORTHERN WV,
SOUTHEASTERN OH, AND SOUTHWESTERN PA AS THEY NOW RESIDE BETWEEN
40-60%. THIS BY NO MEANS IS NEAR RECORD TERRITORY AS BENCHMARKS
FOR 1 OCTOBER ARE STILL NEAR 90F AT MOST CLIMATE SITES. HEAT
RISK AT THIS JUNCTURE REMAINS IN THE MINOR CATEGORY.
WE RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH IS ALONG LAKE ERIE
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK PLACING US IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE TREND CONTINUES FOR DRY WEATHER, HOWEVER A WEAK
IMPULSE COULD TRAVERSE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS. FOR NOW, PROBS
BETWEEN 20-40% HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE WARM SECTOR. WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN, FORECAST HIGHS PULL BACK A LITTLE
ON DAY 6 AND 7 TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 60
ARE PROJECTED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
FOR LOCATIONS WHO DO NOT RECEIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
THEN NONE IS EXPECTED THE BALANCE OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A NOR'EASTER CURRENTLY OFFSHORE
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY/DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST
HELPING TO MAINTAIN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. DUE TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW DRIFTING
WEST ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE NOR'EASTER, FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
STRONGER LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEND TO SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS (DUJ AND LBE).
ZZV AND MGW COULD KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WHICH
COULD RESULT IN RIVER-VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF ANY DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AS EARLY AS THE AFTERNOON FOR DUJ AND LBE, HOWEVER, IT
IS MORE LIKELY TO START DURING THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR MVFR
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR TERMINALS FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE
NOR'EASTER MOVES ONSHORE. THERE IS >50% OF AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS REGION-WIDE BY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THERE IS ABOUT A 35%-50% CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS MONDAY MORNING
FOR FKL, DUJ, AND LBE. RESTRICTIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. TUESDAY MORNING THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS DURING THE MORNING, OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN MID TO LATE WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCMULLEN
AVIATION...LUPO
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