059
FXUS61 KPBZ 311627
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1227 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK, SAVE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK. A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING LOCALLY ON TUESDAY
AS THE HIGH REINFORCES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE
ROUNDS A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND MAY ALLOW FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ASIDE
FROM THAT, RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK REMAIN VERY LOW TO NIL WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT DISPLACED OFF TO OUR EAST AND SCARCE
COLUMN MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (FORECAST PWATS NEAR THE DAILY
CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
(HIGHS IN 70S, LOWS IN UPPER 40S/LOW 50S) WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MID-WEEK WITH ENSEMBLES STILL
INDECISIVE OF THE TIMING OF THE 500 MB PATTERN EVOLUTION. BASICALLY
TWO CAMPS EXIST WITH ONE BEING STAGNATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
CLOSED LOW OR THAT LOW DEPARTING AND ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD FROM
THE WEST. THIS MAY BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLE (TROUGHING SOLUTION) OR
TRENDING ~10F ABOVE AVERAGE (RIDGING SOLUTION), BUT MOST LIKELY
DRY IN ANY SCENARIO.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ALL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE TO A
RIDGING PATTERN AND WARM UP WITH EVEN THE COOL END OF THE
TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION PULLING UP TO NEAR 80F AND THE WARM END
NEARING 90F. UNCERTAINTY AT THAT POINT STEMS FROM A DIGGING TROUGH
OFF TO OUR NORTH AND HOW STRONG THE RIDGING LOCALLY CAN BE. THERE'S
SOME SIGNAL FOR ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD BRING
BACK OUR NEXT MENTIONABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, AND CIPS
ANALOGS ALSO ALLUDE TO THIS AS THE NEXT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WITH PASSING CIRRUS AND LIGHT WIND, BACKING TO THE N/NW
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PROBABILITY FOR PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF VFR PLUS DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE SUBTLE PATTERN
CHANGES DEVELOP HEADING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
A LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER EXISTS
TUESDAY AMID UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT, BUT IS LIKELY TO
BE RELEGATED TO WV HIGHER TERRAIN VS. AREA TERMINALS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/MLB
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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