576
FXUS61 KPBZ 231754
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
154 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY REMAINS WITH AN INDICATION OF A STALLED SURFACE FRONT
AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OUR REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
POTENTIAL WARMING TREND AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL EASE TONIGHT AND COMBINED WITH
CLEAR SKIES, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE LIKELY TO DROP
INTO THE LOW 50S (ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL). THIS COULD
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY, AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DRIVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARDS OUR REGION, HOWEVER, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWING A
TROUGH STALLED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH A STALLED TROUGH, THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A LOW FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
POTENTIAL, HOWEVER, THIS COULD CHANGE AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND.
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WARMING TREND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F. THIS WOULD BE THE RESULT OF A STRONG AND
STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR HAS RETURNED AND SHOULD BE THE CASE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
TIME THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 15-25 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 23-01Z WHEN THEY
BECOME LIGHT OR EVEN GO CALM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEDNESDAY.
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT A FEW
SITES BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. RESTRICTION AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUPO
AVIATION...CRAVEN
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