797
FXUS61 KPBZ 061125
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
725 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND
GUSTY WIND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A PERSISTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TODAY. A VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL (20KT AT
0-6KM) WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT, WITH ML CAPE RANGING FROM 750-1500
J/KG. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH LESS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THAN OCCURRED AS WELL.
THE HIGHEST PWATS AND MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND EAST OF I-79. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS, AND THE OVERALL ISOLATED NATURE OF THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL PRECLUDING A WIDESPREAD FLOOD WATCH, WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY PASSAGE, WITH MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SIMILAR INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED, WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH
RANGE. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY,
AND DRIVE STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE DAY.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA INDICATES SOME WEAKENING
OF THE TROUGH IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY, WITH A RELATIVE MINIMUM
IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS DAILY CHANCES FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND GUSTY WIND FROM THESE STORMS, THOUGH TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE MORE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND EXTENT OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LIFR STRATUS AND FOG IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO KICK
OFF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE
SURFACE. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LIFT AND IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH HEATING AND MIXING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VIS IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. ONCE AGAIN, FOG AND
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT SEE RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE EXCEPTION COULD
BE SUNDAY, WHICH HAS POTENTIAL TO SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN THIS
ACTIVITY. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS
DAY/EVENING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK/WM
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