749
FXUS61 KPBZ 180724 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
324 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MONITORING A MORE LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH EARLY MORNING. NEAR WIND ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF I 70.
2) GUSTY WIND THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
3) WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH, AND WITH A
55-65 KT 850 MB JET. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED, THOUGH A LOW
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL EXISTS SOUTH OF I-70 GIVEN A STRONG WIND
FIELD ALOFT, AND 50-60KT OF SHEAR FROM 0-6KM. DAMAGING WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD, THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR,
RESULTING IN CURVED HODOGRAPHS (AS SEEN ON THE 00Z ILN
SOUNDING.) NORTH OF I-70, A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED,
THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY ADVECTION OCCURING, ENDING
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY,
PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
A STRONG GRADIENT, AND MIXING DOWN OF STRONG WIND ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS FROM 35-45 MPH ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL,
THOUGH HREF AND NBM PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 30 PERCENT OR
LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AFTER MINIMAL SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY WITH A WEAK CROSSING
SHORTWAVE, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION. CURRENT PROBABILITY OF ONE INCH OF RAIN RANGE
FROM 60-70 PERCENT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NBM OUTPUT. MACHINE
LEARNING OUTPUT INDICATES AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, THOUGH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
MAINTAIN SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL DESPITE LESS THAN OPTIMAL
INSTABILITY. INCLUDED A TEMPO THUNDER MENTION FOR MGW AND LBE
OVERNIGHT, WITH PREDOMINANT SHOWERS. GUSTY WIND (UP TO 40KT) IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT MIX DOWN WIND ALOFT. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH
THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT INTO A
CU LAYER FOR MOST AIRPORTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG WIND ALOFT AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN WSW WIND GUSTS FROM
35 TO 40 KT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AT LBE. WIND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH AN
EXITING JET AND THE LOSS OF MIXING.
OUTLOOK...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH PART OF SUNDAY, THOUGH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE COULD SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR WVZ510>514.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM
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