466
FXUS61 KPBZ 181103
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
703 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH A FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT. FROST,
AND EVEN A FEW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT,
THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE GROWING SEASON COULD END IF A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE OCCURS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN
OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST REGION THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK, WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS, A RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON
THURSDAY, THOUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK WITH THE
LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG WILL EASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSHINE WITH
INCREASED HEATING/MIXING WHILE OFFERING LOW CHANCE OF TERMINAL
IMPACT.
VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FAVORED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD (WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW IMPACT RIVER
VALLEY STEAM FOG MONDAY MORNING).
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...FRAZIER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page