119
FXUS61 KPBZ 021727
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
127 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A MINIMAL THREAT
FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SOUTH OF I-70.
2) COOLER AND MAINLY DRY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FROST IS A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTING EASTWARD, THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW, SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
COULD KEEP LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES OVER OUR WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT BUT THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SEASONAL
VALUES FOR EARLY OCTOBER. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE REINFORCED
BY A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WAVE
COULD PULL MOISTURE, FROM THE BOUNDARY THAT BECOMES DIFFUSE TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR REGION AFTER CROSSING TODAY, NORTHWARD, LEADING TO SOME
POSSIBLE SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH. AT THIS TIME THE
PROBABILITY OF MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IS FAIRLY LOW
(PROB > 0.05 INCHES AROUND 30% IN THE WV RIDGES). AFTER SUNDAY,
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS TO THE NORTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, AS WELL AS IN THE
USUAL LAUREL HIGHLAND/NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COLD SPOTS. THE NBM
PAINTS A 50% TO 75% CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 37
DEGREES NORTH OF US-422 BOTH MORNINGS - WHICH WOULD BE CHILLY ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST GIVEN CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY ON SHOULD BUILD BACK TOWARDS MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. PORTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN. IFR CONDITIONS
FOLLOW CLOSELY ON THEIR HEELS. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ON
THE ORDER OF 6 OR SO HOURS AT EACH PORT BEFORE MODELS FAVOR A RISE
BACK TOWARDS VFR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS RISE CAN BE SEEN SNEAKING
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO ALREADY. RESTRICTIONS CLEAR FIRST IN THE NORTH
AND WEST AND SWEEP SOUTH AND EAST, WITH ALL PORTS EXPECTED TO BE ON
THEIR WAY UP BY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO VEER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EVENTUALLY SETTLING AT NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW. WINDS CAN GUST BETWEEN 15-
20 KTS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS COULD RAISE SOME FOG CONCERNS BUT
JUST ENOUGH OF BOTH COULD HAMPER WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. ALTHOUGH
STEAM FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE, IMPACTS AT PORTS IS LOW PROBABILITY AND
LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK... BOUNDARY MAY STALL JUST SOUTH OF I-70 WITH SOME
POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS SAT AND SUN AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR IS PROGGED OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING FOG.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...34
AVIATION...AK
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