038
FXUS61 KPBZ 170627
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
227 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH AND ADDED ADDITIONAL MESSAGE ON A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS DISSIPATE MONDAY, THERE IS FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER UNTIL WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, WHEN
THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.
2) COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EXPECT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH MAY MISS OUT COMPLETELY. HOWEVER, TO THE SOUTH,
SOME DECENT INSTABILITY REMAINS AND A MARGINAL RISK JUST CLIPS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TUCKER COUNTY AND MAINLY FOR A WIND
THREAT. ALSO, DECLINING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POINT TO A
DECREASING RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS THE RAINFALL RATES HAVE COME DOWN AND THE EXPECTED
PWATS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY FEATURE STILL A MOIST 1.8 BUT
NOTHING LIKE OVER THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD END
PRECIPITATION BY MON EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS THEN FAVORED UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT A BIT BY WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS TO
THE WEST BEGINS TO TILT TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHERLY ALLOWING A COLD
FRONT TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THIS TIME, THERE APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF SURFACE BASED
CAPE AND ANY RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEPEND ON A GREATER
FORCING.
THE FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY BUT SOME ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY I-70 OR JUST SOUTH. THIS COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER FOCUSED REGION OF POINT RAINFALL. THIS WILL NEED
MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE AND/OR
FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE THIS
WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO VARY, EXPECT MAINLY IFR AND BELOW AS FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL KEEP THE TERMINALS IMPACTED THROUGH DAWN.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
MON, WHICH MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/SUB-SEVERE STORMS
MON AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY NEAR/SOUTH OF PIT. AFTER MORNING
IFR/LIFR CIGS, EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIG HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MIXING AND SOME DRY ADVECTION AFTER FROPA.
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME ON TUESDAY. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP
AT LEAST BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG, VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY WED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. RESTRICTION AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN WED AND WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNS THU AND FRI UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page