550
FXUS61 KPBZ 061131
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
731 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS PROVIDES QUIET WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN, A
WARMING TREND PRECEDES THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH MAY ARRIVE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGIONS, LEADING TO NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY USHERING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY AND PLEASANT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IS FORECAST BOTH SUNDAY
AND LABOR DAY, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS (UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80).
500MB HEIGHTS RISE AFTER MONDAY AS A NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OPENS AND DEPARTS, ALLOWING A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS (MID/UPPER 80S) AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. THE
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS MAY ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG - MAINLY IMPACTING FKL, AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA LOW STRATUS - IMPACTING MGW, WILL LIFT BY 14Z.
THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER VALLEY
FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER COOLER NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRONGLY FAVORS VFR THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ANY
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE TIED TO BRIEF, PRE- DAWN RIVER
VALLEY FOG.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK/WM/CL
AVIATION...CL
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