607
FXUS61 KPBZ 270615
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
215 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGES/AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. PATCHY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS, WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT THE AREA OF I-70 AS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG BETWEEN 4AM AND 9AM. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED IF VISIBILITY DROPS BELOW A HALF OF MILE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER A PORTION OF THE REGION. VISIBILITY
IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 9AM AS SURFACE HEATING INCREASES.
OVERALL, QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST STORY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A PASSING COLD
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS,
THROUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LARGE-SCALE
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS
EASTWARD. THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL RAINFALL REMAINS LOW,
BELOW 30%. HOWEVER, WITH SIGNIFICANT LEAF ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND, CLOGGED STORM DRAINS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED ISSUES
MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PERIOD OF FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. THE BEST TIME
PERIOD FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN BETWEEN 10Z TO
13Z; IFR TO LIFR VIS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN BVI AND MGW (AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT).
FOGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z WITH
DIURNAL HEATING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A PASSING COLD
FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY RETURN CIG RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE; VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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