966
FXUS61 KPBZ 081759
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
159 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST, AS OVERALL
MODEL TRENDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY STABLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH
2) UNSETTLED PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT, ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB, IS KEEPING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SUPPRESSED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
PITTSBURGH. TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CITY, BETTER OVERALL
MOISTURE (1.3 TO 1.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER) AND TERRAIN/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE HELPING TO FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. TO THIS POINT, THE CAPPING AND DRY AIR ALOFT IS
STUNTING UPDRAFT GROWTH FOR THE MOST PART, KEEPING CLOUD TOPS
WARMER THAN -10C AND THUS PREVENTING LIGHTNING GENERATION.
CONTINUED UPDRAFT ATTEMPTS MAY EVENTUALLY ALLOW CONVECTION TO
GET TALL ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, BUT SHEAR AND CAPE
PROFILES REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. BRIEF DOWNPOURS
ARE POSSIBLE AND OVERALL WEAK FLOW IS ENCOURAGING SLOW STORM
MOTION, BUT ANY INSTANCES OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND/OR POTENTIAL
FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AT BEST, LIMITED TO
LOCATIONS THAT SEE MULTIPLE CELLS.
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST, AND A BRIEF AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION LULL
IS EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG IS IN THE CARDS GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW AND
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RIDE UP THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT, WITH THE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
ON THURSDAY. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST MID-LEVEL
SUPPORT/WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE,
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 AFTER 06Z THURSDAY, AND REMAINING
GENERALLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR AND LOW DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN KEEP SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TO A MINIMUM. HOWEVER, THERE
MAY BE A SMALL UPTICK IN HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL. HREF
MEANS SUGGEST 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, AND MAX PRECIPITATION PROGS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED 2
TO 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
MULTIPLE STORMS. AT THIS TIME, FLOODING PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO
LIMITED IN SCOPE TO CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH.
A SOMEWHAT MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS SLATED FOR A FRIDAY
PASSAGE. THE TRACK APPEARS SIMILAR TO THE THURSDAY DISTURBANCE,
BUT BETTER AREAWIDE MOISTURE POTENTIAL PLUS SOME UPPER SUPPORT
FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A NORTHEAST CONUS UPPER JET
SHOULD PROMOTE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERAGE. AGAIN, SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS REMAIN MUTED, BUT RAIN TOTALS/FLOOD THREATS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED SOUTH OF I-70, AS THIS REGION IS ONCE AGAIN
PEGGED BY ENSEMBLES AS HAVING HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS. WPC NOTES
THIS AS WELL, BRINGING A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH ON FRIDAY.
A BOUNDARY MAY SET UP SHOP NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE ON
SATURDAY, KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN TO THE SOUTH OF
PITTSBURGH, AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING AN ISOLATED FLOOD RISK
THERE. PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING A DRIER TREND TO
THE REGION THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
VFR CUMULUS LAYER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND AID IN LIFT FROM OROGRAPHIC ASCENT COULD PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF PITTSBURGH, BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD OVERALL BE LESS TODAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AS
WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR PUTS A LID ON UPDRAFT STRENGTH. MAINTAINED
A TEMPO -TSRA MENTION FOR LBE, MGW AND DUJ FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
ELSEWHERE, FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO MINIMAL TO SUPPORT ANY
DEVELOPMENT.
LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WIND TODAY WILL RELAX TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME CIRRUS. A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRACK UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND LIKELY SPARK OFF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARILY
CONFINING IMPACTS TO MGW. EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG DEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
LIGHT WIND, REMNANT GROUND MOISTURE, AND SCATTERING OF CLOUDS,
AGAIN MOST DENSE WHERE RAIN FALLS TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS
AT ANY TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO BE INCLUDED AT THIS TIME, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVACUATED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER FOR MGW EVEN IF RAIN DOES FALL THERE
TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WOULD NEGATE DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING PERIODIC
RESTRICTIONS AGAIN ON THURSDAY PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF
PITTSBURGH. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A CROSSING SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONAL
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...MLB/JNC
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