968
FXUS61 KPBZ 092337
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
737 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPIRED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70, AS HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENING HAS DECREASED. AVIATION
DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
2) MAINLY DRY AND WARM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MOST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS MAINLY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY AT
BEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND
THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER,GIVEN POTENTIAL
LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM DAYTIME ACTIVITY AND THE EVENTS OF THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS, WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALIZED INSTANCE OR TWO
OF HEAVY RAINFALL PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT AND ARRIVE IN OUR REGION TOWARDS SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. ALSO,
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY, THIS TIME FOR A LARGER AREA, AS PWATS
AND INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. INCREASED FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY FASTER STORM MOTION, AND WITH
0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 25 KNOTS, THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL AT LEAST BRIEFLY IN THE GENERAL VICINITY
OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY KEEP AT
LEAST A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS
AND FLOODING IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD GET A PUSH FROM A NORTHEAST CONUS SHORTWAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA AND SHIFT
FLOW ALOFT TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS WELL, AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AT THIS TIME, HEAT LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MATCH THOSE OF LAST WEEKEND, BUT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ARE POSSIBLE COME TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONVECTION WANES THIS EVENING AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE EXITS TO
THE EAST, THOUGH SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE MAINTAINS ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE (AND THUS NO MENTION) OF IMPACTS
AT AREA TERMINALS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
THIS TIME WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THAT'S PRIMARILY
FOCUSED ALONG A CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY. ONCE AGAIN, ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BRING PERIODIC
RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK...
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY
FOG SETTLING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS NEAR-SURFACE
MOISTURE LINGERS FOLLOWING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR OR SOUTH OF A ZZV-MGW CORRIDOR.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL/MILCAREK
AVIATION...CERMAK/MLB
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