452
FXUS61 KPBZ 010802
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
302 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING HAS NEARLY
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT
IS STILL VERY POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW AND A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING IN THE MORNING
ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
2) FREEZING RAIN A POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT
3) PATTERN SHIFT IN EARLY MARCH, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEING QUITE DRY AT ONSET, WITH SOME INSTANCES SHOWING DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES, THERE WILL MUCH LESS
SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN THAT ONCE EXPECTED, IF AT ALL. GIVEN
THE INCREASE IN 700MB FLOW AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM, WOULD EXPECTED THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO EXIT
BY LATE MORNING TODAY LEAVING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE, THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
AFTERNOON TODAY WILL SOME LOW RH BUT THIS WILL BE EXPLAINED IN
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SECOND FEATURE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THAT THE ENSEMBLES HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT ON TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA,
OR AT LEAST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK INTO THE REGION ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP AS
THE PRECIP LIFTS NORTH INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT PORTION. GIVEN THE
AIRMASS THAT FOLLOWED THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR COLD AIR TO BE IN PLACE FOR THIS TROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A DECENT SET UP FOR LESS THAN A
TENTH OF ICE MONDAY NIGHT BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES TO THE EAST. IN FACT, THE MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAURELS. THE PROBS FOR GREATER
THAT A 0.01 LIGHT UP RIGHT ON THE RIDGES AT 50% TO 60% AND SOME
TO THE NORTH BEING LESS THAN THAT. THUS, THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TOTALS FOR ICE BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR WITH THE
PREVIOUS TROUGH, THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW ITEMS TO IRON OUT, SO
WILL MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE MIDWEEK RAINFALL SETUP IS A SOMEWHAT CONCERNING AT THIS
POINT AS THE TUESDAY SET UP BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, THIS SETS THE
STAGE TO BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTH THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND
INTO THE OH VALLEY FOR THE MIDWEEK PORTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK AS SUGGESTED BY SOME ENSEMBLES. THIS WILL POSE A
FLOODING THREAT AND WITH SOME WARMER AIR IN PLACE, PERHAPS THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MOST NOTABLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK BEING THU AND FRI WHERE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
EVEN 6-7 DAYS OUT THE NBM SHOWING SOME 300 TO 500 J/KG SURFACE
BASED CAPE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLES IN
THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING. INITIALLY, DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MOIST ADVECTION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE COULD ALLOW SOME SNOW TO FALL AT FKL AND DUJ, WITH A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ELSEWHERE. MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW, WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT FKL AND DUJ, WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE. TO THE SOUTH, MAINTAINED PROB30S FOR
RAIN/SNOW AS ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE SPOTTY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AIRPORTS NORTH OF MGW
BY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH. A GENERAL NORTH WIND AT 5-10KT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT FOR MOST FROM PIT
SOUTH, WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN NORTH
OF PIT AND IN THE RIDGES. PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN ARE
THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES
QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...WM
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