083
FXUS61 KPBZ 172325
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
725 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLEARING TODAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND. FREEZE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.
2) DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT, WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD RESULT IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. NUDGED GUIDANCE TOWARD THE COLDER SOLUTIONS WITH THESE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES, THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AIR AND WATER ( IN THE LOW
60S).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN OFF OF THE
MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK,
WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS. DURING THIS WEEK, A
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CONUS TO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
STATIONARY AS IT BUILDS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE. READINGS
BY MID TO LATE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VERY FEW, IF ANY, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL. CALM WIND OVERNIGHT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY.
DUE TO THE CLEAR SKY, LIGHT WIND, AND LARGE WATER/AIR
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE, SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG IS
STILL POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z. CHANCES OF TERMINAL IMPACT
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW OVERALL. HLG HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, AND USED A TEMPO THERE.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...WM/LUPO
AVIATION...CL
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