427
FXUS61 KPBZ 230515
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
115 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY HAS A FASTER EXIT TIME, WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT
2) INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY
3) WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NW OH THROUGH SW PA.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD
BE DRY, THOUGH AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, THE MOST FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND
THERMAL PROFILE FOR THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE SOUTH OF A BVI TO AGC TO LBE LINE. FURTHER TO THE NORTH,
RECENT RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPPING WARMTH ALOFT
SHOULD PRECLUDE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD RETURN
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AGAIN APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT,
ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. TRENDS IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATE A
FASTER FROPA SATURDAY MORNING, WITH DECREASING POPS THEREAFTER.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS
WOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF I-80.
MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, SHOWING A
DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY BE FURTHER ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SHOULD THE MODEL TREND CONTINUE WITH THE RETURN OF
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
RIDGING SHOULD RETURN DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT RETURNING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST, WITH AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BOUNDARY HOWEVER, HAS SHIFTED TO ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE AND WEST TO MUSK COUNTY. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A DECENT
CAP IN PLACE JUST ABOVE 600MB MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO DISCOURAGE
SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CLOUD LAYERS INDICATE A SCT OR BKN
LAYER AT ABOUT 8KFT. THUS HAVE GONE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NO MENTION OF SHOWERS.
IF INSTABILITY WERE TO OVER PERFORM THAN ZZV AND MGW WOULD BE
THE BEST LOCATIONS TO GET SHOWER ACTIVITY.
OUTLOOK...
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AND
RESTRICTIONS BACK TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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