735
FXUS61 KPBZ 142344
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
644 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE AGAIN NUDGED NORTHWARD FOR SUNDAY
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. THERE IS ALSO A BIT MORE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 2500 FEET OR SO,
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
2) RAIN POTENTIAL SUNDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. A WINTRY MIX IS
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER RIDGES, WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION.
3) WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING
TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, A MORE
VIGOROUS WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH JUST NORTH OF THE GULF
COAST. AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE DEPICTION OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE IS A BIT STRONGER, AND THE WAVES NOW SHOW SIGNS OF
PHASING AS THEY CROSS OUR LONGITUDE, WITH BETTER INTERACTION OFF
OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW STILL TRACKS
ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST, BUT A BIT
MORE MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD WITH THE BETTER
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM INTERACTION. THIS HAS LEAD TO A FURTHER
INCREASE IN POPS WITH LIKELY VALUES NOW REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS
ALLEGHENY COUNTY. QPF HAS ALSO INCREASED ACCORDINGLY, ALTHOUGH
FORECAST AMOUNTS STILL ARE NOT LIKELY TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. MEAN HREF TOTALS FOR THE SYSTEM OF 0.25 INCH REACH THE
MASON-DIXON LINE, WHICH CORRESPONDS FAIRLY WELL WITH THE NBM.
AROUND 0.40 INCH OF TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS PROGGED FOR
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY. THUS, WITH HEAVIER TOTALS STAYING SOUTH
OF THE CWA, THE RAIN SHOULD NOT ADD SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH TO
SNOWMELT/RIVER ICE BREAKUP TO PRESENT ANY NOTABLE FLOOD RISK.
PRECIP TYPE IS STILL SOLIDLY RAIN FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA BELOW 2500 FEET WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BY MIDDAY.
EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION MAY LEAD TO VERY SPOTTY FREEZING
RAIN NORTH OF PITTSBURGH, BUT THIS REMAINS LOW PROBABILITY. IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN, AND THEN
MIX WITH SNOW LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH A
COMBINATION OF EVAPORATIVE AND DIURNAL COOLING. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING OR SO IS PICTURED IN THE LAURELS. IN
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY, WHERE A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE, AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR ON THE
HIGHEST RIDGETOPS. WITH NEARLY ISOTHERMAL SOUNDINGS NEAR
FREEZING IN THE SURFACE LEVELS, SNOW- TO-LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE
QUITE LOW, WITH ANY SNOW LIKELY TO BE OF THE WET VARIETY.
PRECIPITATION TAILS OFF SUNDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE RAIN/SNOW MIX AS
THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS
OFFSHORE. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A CLOUD DECREASE
ON MONDAY AND A RESUMPTION OF THE WARMING TREND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND AN APPROACHING, BUT FLATTENING
RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A
WARMING TREND. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK, WITH
A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES
BY WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE STRENGTH AND
TIMING SHOW UP IN THE VARIOUS MODEL CLUSTERS THEREAFTER, MAKING
GUARANTEEING A DRY DAY BEFORE SATURDAY A TRICKY PROPOSITION.
ONE THING THAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH MIDWEEK, GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS. BY WEDNESDAY THE NBM
INDICATES AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH/WEST OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY HAVE A
50 PERCENT CHANCE OR GREATER OF REACHING A 60 DEGREE HIGH. THIS
MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT UNDERDONE AS THE NBM BIAS CORRECTIONS ARE
STILL ADAPTING TO THE EXPECTED PATTERN SHIFT. INCREASED
CLOUDS/PRECIP CHANCES MAY MUTE THESE TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
THEREAFTER, ALTHOUGH CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL READINGS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A RETURN OF LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS AND TROUGHING
ALOFT COULD BRING COOLER WEATHER BACK BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK AS WELL, AT LEAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNINGS. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SNOW MELT AND RIVER ICE
DECAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) VFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
2) CIGS/VIS DROPS TO IFR/LIFR IN RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST.
------------------------------------------------------------
VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH BROKEN MID-
LEVEL DECKS PROGRESSIVELY THICKENING INTO SUNDAY. WIND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM AND PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTH OF PIT. THUS,
PREVAILING GROUPS WERE NOTED WHERE ITS MOST LIKELY (>50%),
TEMPOS FOR -RA AT PIT WITH A 30% TO 50% CHANCE OR RAIN, PROB30S
FOR BVI WITH ONLY A 30% CHANCE, AND NO MENTION FOR FKL AND DUJ
WHERE RAIN IS <20% LIKELY.
RESTRICTIONS OF BOTH VIS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE
RAIN DOES OCCUR WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. CIGS WILL LEAD THE
RESTRICTIONS, WITH RATHER ABRUPT DROPS FROM VFR TO IFR/LIFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SPAN OF 2 TO 4 HOURS. VIS WILL FOLLOW. FORECAST
DROPS TO 1SM TO 3SM WERE NOTED FOR NOW, THROUGH THERE ARE
CONCERNS WITH RAIN ON SNOWPACK, COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO PATCHES OF DENSE FOG SUNDAY NIGHT, MOST
LIKELY SOUTH OF I-70.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEPART IN ROUGHLY THE 20Z TO 00Z TIME-SPAN
FOR MOST, BUT VIS RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT,
PARTICULARLY IF DECKS SCATTER OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A 30% TO 60% CHANCE MVFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
MVFR CHANCES FALL OVERNIGHT (SAVE A LINGERING 50% CHANCE FOR
FKL/DUJ). RESTRICTIONS REMAIN MOST LIKELY AT DUJ/FKL THROUGH
TUESDAY (ONLY 50% FOR NOW).
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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