291
FXUS61 KPBZ 201715
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
115 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES WITH A PERSISTENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE
WITH LIGHT FROST CHANCES PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS WITH PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE OUTLOOK REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VARYING DEGREES OF UPPER RIDING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK; EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGER DIURNAL SWINGS, DRY WEATHER, A
PREPONDERANCE OF SUNSHINE AND PERIODIC OCCURRENCES OF MORNING
FROST (FAVORING WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED). THIS IS
BEST HIGHLIGHTED BY THE LREF (AN ENSEMBLE MODEL) WHICH SHOWS THE
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT ANY TIME BETWEEN NOW AND
2PM MONDAY BEING LESS THAN 15%.
THE PREVIOUS DISCOURSE ABOUT NON-ZERO RAIN CHANCES WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS GRASPING
FOR AIR GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY DRY ATMOSPHERE
(PWATS REMAIN NEAR THE 10TH PERCENTILE), MEANING ENOUGH MODEL
PRECIP FEEDBACK IS LIKELY TO BE A (BRIEF) INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK SAVE FOR
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AND LOCAL IMPACTS. TONIGHT, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TOMORROW MORNING, RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE,
HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTS DUE
TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS HIGHLY LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...LUPO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page