465
FXUS61 KPBZ 291152
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
752 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE INCLUDED
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
2) HEAT, HUMIDITY AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN PA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS TODAY, WITH LOW HUMIDITY. RISING 500MB
HEIGHTS, AND A VEERING FLOW FROM EAST TO SOUTH, SHOULD RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
PLACEMENT AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE WEEK. INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AND THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT
OF THE RIDGE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS ACTIVITY
REACHES.
IN GENERAL, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE COULD SPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING
EASTWARD, STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCUR, IT WOULD
LIKELY SUPPRESS MOST OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA. THE
500MB HEIGHTS SHOULD PEAK ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH PART OF WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN. IN GENERAL, EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, AND AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE LATEST ML
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE, TIMING OF ITS BREAKDOWN, AND TIMING
OF THE SHORTWAVE.
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AND SW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S BOTH OF THOSE DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
MODERATE BY LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.
TONIGHT, SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INHIBITING
RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT. ZZV AND MGW ARE THE ONLY TERMINALS
THAT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCE
FOR SOME FOG IN THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR FKL AND DUJ SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM/LUPO
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