236
FXUS61 KPBZ 121619
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1219 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.
2) DRY AND WARM FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK UNTIL
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TODAY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM DUE TO AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTH OF A ZZV- MGW LINE).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WITH HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM. WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS APPROACHING 594 DM. HIGHS BY THEN SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER 90S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES. NW FLOW ALOFT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH POSSIBLE
CROSSING SHORTWAVES AND CONVECTION POTENTIAL INCREASING.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WIND IS FAVORED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.
DIURNAL MIXING WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN CU DECKS
BETWEEN 3-6KFT.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE/LIFT FROM ZZV TO MGW FOR
THAT CU TO RESULT IN A BRIEF SHOWER BETWEEN 18Z-23Z
(THUNDERSTORM UNLIKELY) BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR TAF
MENTION.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH ONLY
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG NEAR DAWN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM/LUPO
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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