153
FXUS61 KPBZ 171141
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
741 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SATURDAY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. A
TORNADO THREAT HAS BEEN INCLUDED AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DAMAGING WIND AGAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT
ALTHOUGH A TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
2) MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNTIL THE SATURDAY
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. BEHIND IT, TEMPERATURES CRASH TO MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL LEVELS. FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS RETURN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND EVEN A FEW SUNDAY NIGHT SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING
ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE ON SATURDAY. THE CURRENT
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SITUATION WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL PRECEDE
THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY MORNING INTO MIDDAY. MODEL SOUNDING
AHEAD OF THIS SUGGEST A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONED BY THE
MORNING CONVECTION AND PREPPING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT LATER IN THE DAY. THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS, WHILE THE
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP WOULD CONDITION THE ENVIRONMENT, THERE MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH CLEARING AFTER THE PASSAGE FOR NEEDED
DESTABILIZATION FOR THE HIGHER SEVERE THREAT. THE HREF GIVES A
40% PROB OF EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG SB CAPE. THE NBM APPEARS TO BE
MORE OMINOUS WITH A 50% TO 60% PROB OF EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG.
PARAMETERS IN MIND, THE SPC HAS INCLUDED A 2% TOR IN THE LATEST
DAY 2 FOR SATURDAY. IT WOULD BE A GOOD MESSAGE TO CONSIDER THE
OVERALL PROB OF SEVERE WEATHER IN GENERAL TO HAVE MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE. ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MEAN FOR
CWASP IN THE NBM TO BE 76%. FOR NOW, DAMAGING WIND CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING AND THE TORNADO PROB IS QUITE CONDITIONAL BUT WITH
THE MENTION THAT THE THREAT IS CERTAINLY THERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE MENTIONED FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST
POTENTIAL TO APPROACH RECORDS ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE
FRONT IS LATER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED, ALLOWING FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 80 OR WARMER
MAY BE A BIT OVERSTATED, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA FROM PITTSBURGH
SOUTH SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A 50/50 SHOT OF REACHING THAT LEVEL.
MEANWHILE, BEHIND THE FRONT, THE SCRIPT FLIPS, AND NORTHEAST
CONUS TROUGHING LEADS TO DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BEFORE APPROACHING
CLIMATOLOGY ON TUESDAY. FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND SOME SUNDAY NIGHT SNOWFLAKES ARE
A POSSIBILITY. GETTING BACK TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNING, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH PROBS BELOW
32 DEGREES IS NEAR 90% UP NORTH AND A RESPECTABLE 50% TO 60% FOR
PITTSBURGH AND SOUTH. A HARD FREEZE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER BUT MAINLY UP NORTH.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO INCH SOUTH THIS MORNING. IMPACTS THUS
FAR HAVE BEEN IFR CEILINGS FOR FKL/DUJ WITH THE LEADING EDGE
JUST ENCROACHING ON PIT AROUND 12Z. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
FAR SOUTH IT CAN PUSH, BUT SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR/RAP DATA
ARE SUGGESTING IT STALLS RIGHT AROUND AN HLG-PIT-AGC LINE, SO
HAVE PULLED BACK ON IFR CIG MENTION AT THOSE SITES AS MIXING
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ERODE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DECK
ESPECIALLY. IF IT DOES REACH FARTHER SOUTH, PIT COULD SEE A
BRIEF HOUR OR TWO OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 12Z-14Z. ZZV AND
MGW WILL LIKELY NOT SEE CIGS AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY VFR.
EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS BY MID MORNING AS MIXING LIFTS
CIG HEIGHTS AND EVENTUALLY CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH VFR RETURNING UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. A
LIGHT W-NW WIND IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SE FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGHING AND COLD NW FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN CIG
RESTRICTIONS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...WM/MLB
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