612
FXUS61 KPBZ 240539
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. REMOVED KEY MESSAGE FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY
2) WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. BEST COVERAGE
APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH, WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF LIFT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR, BUT CAPPING IS MORE LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH, LIMITING POTENTIAL COVERAGE. SEVERE RISK AGAIN
APPEARS LOW, SUPPORTED BY CSU/NCEP MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT,
ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FASTER
FROPA OVERALL, TAKING IT EAST OF THE RIDGES SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, A LAGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
RIDGING COULD KEEP SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING AT LEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY PULLING EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED NBM POP SUGGESTIONS FOR NOW, BUT A FASTER END TO
PRECIPITATION MAY BE NEEDED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
RIDGING SHOULD RETURN DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT RETURNING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST, WITH AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
NEAR 5-10 KTS. AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT, PRIMARILY NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH. PROBABILITY FOR THESE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION
OUTSIDE OF FKL/DUJ.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH RESTRICTIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY
WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM/CL
AVIATION...CRAVEN/RACKLEY
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