600
FXUS61 KPBZ 241753
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
153 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO KEY MESSAGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW PROBABILITY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAVORS NW PA TODAY
BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
2) PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WITH NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
FAVORED FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WITH ENOUGH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOW
PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
WEAK SHEAR AND LESS THAN 1000 J/KG SBCAPE ENSURES LIMITED SEVERE
AND LIGHTNING RISK, BUT ENOUGH DCAPE (AROUND 900 J/KG) SUGGESTS
ANY DEEP STORM DEVELOPMENT RAISES A RISK FOR DOWNBURST WIND
(UNLIKELY TO OCCUR GIVEN CAPE GENERALLY BELOW -20C AND A WARM
LAYER AT 500MB). MID LEVEL RIDGING AND A POCKET OF DRIER AIR
OVER EASTERN OH WILL WORK EASTWARD TO SUPPRESS MOST
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH 8PM.
A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE AND SLOWLY-DETACHED SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
SHOWERS AND LOW PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT GENERALLY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST A
SLOWER COLD FRONT PUSH (OWING TO WEAK UPPER SUPPORT) THAT MAY
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER/REDEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
AS PEAK HEATING IS REACHED. EVENTUALLY RAIN AND LIGHTNING
THREATS EXIT EAST AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK STARTS DRY BEFORE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTRODUCES ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TUESDAY. WHILE CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS TRENDING TOWARD A
WEAKER TROUGH THAT WOULD PUT THE KIBOSH ON ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL, THE SCENARIO OF A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH WOULD CREATE
GREATER LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THAT PUSHES SBCAPE TOWARDS 1000 J/KG. THIS SCENARIO,
WHICH FEATURES AROUND 30KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR, COULD LEND TO A
LOWER END SEVERE THREAT FAVORING ELEVATED WIND RISKS. THE MORE
LIKELY OUTCOME IS WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH LOW PROBABILITY
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT FEATURES MINIMAL SEVERE
OR FLOODING RISKS.
ENSEMBLES ARE UNDECIDED BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OR QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. PENDING
WHICH WAY IT TILTS, THE OVERALL OUTLOOK SUGGESTS NEAR TO
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WITH PERIODIC GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN
CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR
5-10 KTS. AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT, PRIMARILY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.
PROBABILITY FOR THESE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION OUTSIDE OF
FKL/DUJ.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE/WHEN THERE WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM, SO PROB30S WERE ADDED TO
LOCATIONS TO REPRESENT THE POSSIBILITY. DURING THE SATURDAY MORNING,
IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO IFR CEILINGS WITH
THE PRECIPITATION. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR,
HOWEVER, RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER IN THE DAY ON
SUNDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AND RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...LUPO
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