477
FXUS61 KPBZ 111750
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
150 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS REMOVED FROM A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, FLOODING STILL REMAINS A
THREAT FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MORE
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF I-70.
2) DRY AND WARM FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM MASON-DIXON LINE TO CENTRAL OH.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY, AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS
COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-70. ML CAPE IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1000
J/KG SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR, TAPERING OFF TO LESSER VALUES
TO THE NORTH WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 20KT AND LOWER. THIS WILL
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOW.
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF REACHING 1.6 INCHES FOR ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 AND
WEST OF I-79. HREF FFG EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING JUST SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER, SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO EARLY EVENING.
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH, DRY ADVECTION TODAY WILL DECREASE PWATS
TO 1-1.4 INCHES, AND WITH DRY AIR ALOFT, THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO VEER TO THE NW THIS EVENING, WHICH
SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SOUTHWARD SPEED OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
THE EXITING FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. RISING 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE PEAK OF THE WARMTH
IS EXPECTED TO BE ON WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE HIGHEST 500 MB HEIGHTS
ARE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH AROUND 90/LOWER 90S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, AND NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. THERE IS
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ANY
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ENOUGH UPPER FORCING TO THE SOUTH WITH RESIDUAL AREA MOISTURE
FAVORS ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WIND
(25-35KTS) AND HEAVY RAIN (DROPPING VSBYS TO 1SM OR LESS) FOR
TERMINALS SOUTH OF I-70 (ZZV/MGW). ISOLATED STORMS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT NORTH OF THIS LINE BUT CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AND
POSITIONING IS TRENDING LOWER, LIMITING PROB30 MENTION TO HLG.
SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS VFR FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD; LINGERING NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE WHERE DRY
ADVECTION IS TOO LATE TO ARRIVE MAY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER EARLY
MORNING STRATUS/FOG PERIOD (FAVORING LBE/MGW/ZZV).
OUTLOOK...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE
INFLUENCE HIGH PRESSURE. OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY
MORNING FOG, THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM/LUPO
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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