960
FXUS61 KPBZ 031124
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
624 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES RETURN MAINLY NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND IN THE
LAURELS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND COLD THIS MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
- LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE NEAR/NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH AND IN THE RIDGES THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
---------------------------------------------------------------
BROAD, BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL
KEEP DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TODAY WITH CONTINUED ~10 DEGREE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, A WEAK PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL
RETURN LIGHT SNOW CHANCE MAINLY TO AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
PITTSBURGH AND IN THE LAURELS -- THOUGH FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED, RESULTING IN
LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES AND MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. NBM AND HREF 95TH
PERCENTILES INDICATE AT MOST AN INCH ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR,
AND LESS THAN THAT MORE LIKELY. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AS A WARMING TREND BEGINS
- ABOVE-FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
----------------------------------------------------------------
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RESUME ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
EXITS TO THE EAST, THOUGH A FEW LAKE-EFFECT FLURRIES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS
VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON SUNDAY, CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S,
BUT REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT A SLOW WARMING TREND BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB
A FEW DEGREES WARMER INTO THE LOW 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MONDAY
CONTINUES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY,
BRINGING NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF PITTSBURGH,
BUT THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING FLURRIES TO AN ISOLATED DUSTING.
IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT STORY FOR MONDAY WILL BE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AS WINDS BACK MORE SOUTHERLY AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING NE CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL
BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND
BEGIN A PATTERN CHANGE AND WARMING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK
-------------------------------------------------------------------
THE PATTERN CHANGE BECOMES VERY EVIDENT BY TUESDAY AS ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A FAIRLY ROBUST
WARMING TREND TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. NBM MEANS
PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S/60S AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY.
ZONAL FLOW WILL ALSO STEER A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT, NON-IMPACTFUL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALMOST DAILY STARTING TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
WARMING TREND, THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- VFR FOR MOST AIRPORTS TODAY
- MVFR RETURNS TONIGHT WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW
------------------------------------------------------------
BACKING FLOW THIS MORNING IS LIFTING THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH FKL NOW BACK TO VFR AND DUJ EXPECTED TO
BREAK INTO VFR BRIEFLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, VFR IS
PREVAILING AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY SPREAD
LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
IT CROSSES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS LINGER SUNDAY MORNING BUT A RETURN TO VFR IS LIKELY
BY AFTERNOON AND PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN POTENTIAL ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RACKLEY
NEAR TERM...RACKLEY
SHORT TERM...RACKLEY
LONG TERM...CERMAK/RACKLEY
AVIATION...CERMAK/CL
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