528
FXUS61 KPBZ 262346
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
746 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PART OF EASTERN OHIO, NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. DETAILS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED IN THE DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THAT
COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A HEAT RISK AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THRU SAT.
AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOST FAVORED
FOR HEAVY RAIN.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY, HOWEVER, IN
WHERE THIS FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED, WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING A NWD POSITION FROM ZZV-MGW VICINITY.
WHEREVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO
SEE AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN EXCEEDING 2.0" OVER THE NEXT 24H. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF ERN
OHIO, NRN WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR-SWRN PENNSYLVANIA THRU SAT
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS INTO THE EARLY WEEK, WITH A STRONG MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING AND SHUNTING HOT AIR INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION.
THRU THE WEEK, TEMPS WILL CLIMB STEADILY INTO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S, WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF MAXT REACHING MID 90S.
FORECAST SOLUTIONS ARE CLUSTERED AROUND TWO KEY SCENARIOS:
1) HOTTER AND DRIER: TEMPS MAY REACH MID 90S, BUT DEWPOINTS MIX
OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S, THUS REDUCING APPARENTT MODESTLY. IN
THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ASSERTS ITSELF SUFFICIENTLY
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
2) LESS HOT AND STORMIER: TEMPS MAY REACH UPPER 80S, BUT
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, APPARENTT MAY BE
HIGHER AND POSE SOME HEAT IMPACT. BUT THE TEMP CEILING WILL BE
LIMITED BY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURSTS AS BUOYANCY WOULD
BE HIGH AND SHEAR WOULD BE WEAK.
SOME COMBINATION OF BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS COULD PLAY OUT OVER
THE WEEK LEADING UP TO AND INCLUDING JULY 4, SO THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NEED TO MONITOR DAILY FORECASTS AS THE
WEEK GOES ON FOR LOCALIZED UPDATES ON STORM AND HEAT POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BETTER RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER 04Z, WITH CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS RETURNING. HIGH RAIN CHANCE WILL SHIFT
SOUTH OF PIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. COVERED THIS WITH PROB30. SOME
LIFTING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AREAS NORTH OF PIT
POTENTIALLY RETURN TO VFR. MVFR IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE HEADING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PIT, BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. WIND REMAINS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER INSTANCES OF RAIN. DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY, LEADING
TO DRIER WEATHER AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR RESTRICTIONS NEXT WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR PAZ031.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OHZ057>059-068-069.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR WVZ004-012-021-509-
510.
DISCUSSION...KRAMAR
AVIATION...RACKLEY
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