857
FXUS61 KPBZ 010541
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
141 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL MESSAGING OF HEAT
IMPACTS FOLLOWED BY JULY 4TH WEEKEND STORM CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTI-DAY HEAT WAVE CONTINUES, POSING HEAT RISKS TO
INDIVIDUALS SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS OR WITHOUT COOLING
CAPABILITIES.
2) PATTERN SHIFT INCREASES RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING
SEVERE THREATS, DURING THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ENSURES AREA HIGH TEMPERATURE EASILY REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 90S WITH POCKETS (MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS) HAVING CHANCES
OF HITTING 100. LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE ALSO KEEPS THE MUGGY
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE TO PUSH HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 100
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL. THESE FACTORS COMBINED
WITH LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
REFERENCE ON POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURE RECORDS) RESULTS IN HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR HEAT RISKS TO ANY POPULATION BUT ESPECIALLY
HEAT-SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS OR THOSE WITHOUT HEAT-MITIGATING
TOOLS. TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THESE HEAT RISKS AND METHODS FOR
MITIGATING ITS IMPACT, VISIT WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT-TOOLS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL UPSTREAM CONVECTION HEADING INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY OFFERS ENOUGH EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF ANY ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT TO DAMPEN FORECASTED TEMPERATURE/HEAT
INDICES. OTHERWISE, RELIEF (WHICH IS USED LIGHTLY) IS PEGGED FOR
THE START OF THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND (SATURDAY) DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER PLUS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND UPPER HEIGHT FALLS.
NOTE THAT EVEN THIS RELIEF STILL FAVORS HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S (ABOVE NORMAL) WITH HEAT INDICES
COMFORTABLE IN THE 90S ALONG WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SITTING IN
THE 70S; THE WPC HEAT RISK TOOL MAINTAINS MAJOR TO EXTREME
(LEVELS 3 AND 4 OUT OF 4, RESPECTIVELY) AREAWIDE SATURDAY BEFORE
FALLING TO MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVELS 2 AND 3 OUT OF 4,
RESPECTIVELY) SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS SHARES HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A BREAKDOWN (I.E. WEAKENING OF ITS
AMPLIFICATION WHILE SHIFTING SOUTH) STARTING FRIDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS FAVORS INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG WITH GRADUAL FALLS IN AREA TEMPERATURE READINGS. BUT THAT
REMAINS AS MUCH AS CAN BE CONFIDENT IN FOR THIS PERIOD.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, SUCH PATTERN SHIFT RESULTS IN HIGHER SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL AND THIS THOUGHT IS BACKED BY HISTORICAL
COMPARISONS OF THIS CHANGE WITH AREA SEVERE RESULTS. HOWEVER,
THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS REACHING THIS TIME RANGE
PUTS MANY KEY FACTORS (STORM TIMING, SHEAR FACTORS, POSITIONING
OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES) IN A DIFFICULT TO DISCERN PROJECTION;
THIS DOESN'T EVEN FACTOR THE HIGH PROBABILITY THAT CONVECTION
THE DAY PRIOR INFLUENCES THE OUTCOMES OF A GIVEN DAY.
INDIVIDUALS AND PLANNERS EYEING POTENTIAL IMPACTS DURING THE
JULY 4TH WEEKEND ARE RECOMMENDED TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS
WHILE UNDERSTANDING CLARITY ON TIMING AS WELL AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE FULLY DISCERNIBLE UNTIL EVEN THE MORNING
OF.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OUTSIDE OF A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF PRE-DAWN SHOWER NEAR
FKL/DUJ, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SLIGHT ORIENTATION CHANGES CAUSING DAYTIME WINDS TO VEER
MORE WESTERLY.
PRE-DAWN RIVER VALLEY FOG ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE BUT IS UNLIKELY
TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AS RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEATHER. A PATTERN SHIFT
RESULTS IN INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND THAT COULD ALSO FEATURE NON-ZERO SEVERE RISKS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (TODAY):
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 98/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 97 RECORD: 96/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 98/1901
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 99/1941
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (TODAY):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 75/1901
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 71/2014
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/1913
--
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 97 RECORD: 95/1966
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 97 RECORD: 97/1966
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/2018
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 73 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/2018
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 76/1903
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 73 RECORD: 71/1903
--
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 97 RECORD: 99/1966
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 98/1898
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 99/1966
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 99/1898
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 100/1911
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 77/1903
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 77 RECORD: 76/1898
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 78/1935
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-077.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-509.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ510-511.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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