174
FXUS61 KPBZ 230117 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
917 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS ENDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH TAPERING OFF TONIGHT
2) DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA, ENDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING.
A FEW MORE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY S-SE OF PIT AS
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH CROSSES, THOUGH A SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ISN'T EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS SHOULD BE JUST BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, AND AFTER
A POTENTIALLY DREARY SUNRISE TUESDAY, DRY WEATHER AND A TREND
TOWARDS SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH VALUES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE. MGW SHOULD BE THE
ONLY TAF SITE STILL AFFECTED BY THIS, AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY ENDING BY 02Z.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT WITH MIXING AFTER
SUNRISE ON TUESDAY, AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WIND 5-10KT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. RESTRICTION AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY
AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM/CL/LUPO
AVIATION...WM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page