252
FXUS61 KPBZ 032316
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
716 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL MESSAGING WITH THIS LATEST FORECAST
PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY
2) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH HEIGHT RISES WITH AN
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER WHILE CAUSING TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT CONCERNS REMAINS LOW, OUTSIDE OF
SENSITIVE POPULATIONS WITHIN URBAN AREAS, DESPITE UPPER 80
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS MAINTAINING
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, INCREASING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY AMONG
AVAILABLE MODELS IN TIMING AND DEPTH OF THESE FEATURES THAT
COULD ALTER THE PEAK PERIOD FOR RAIN AS WELL AS THE STORM
ENVIRONMENT DICTATING SEVERE RISKS. IN GENERAL, AFTERNOON
ARRIVAL (WHETHER SATURDAY VS. SUNDAY) WITH ENOUGH DEWPOINT RISES
COULD FOSTER ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR A SEVERE THREAT OF SOME KIND;
OVERNIGHT ARRIVALS (I.E. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING) IS
LIKELY TO SEE LIMITED BUOYANCY AND THUS LIMITED TO NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER THREAT.
LONG-RANGE TRENDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER AND SUMMER-LIKE HEAT FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK ASSUMING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER RIDGING,
THOUGH SCENARIOS REMAIN WHERE A CUT-OFF LOW LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA TO CREATE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE EXTENDED 30 HR TAF
WINDOW. WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY WHILE
REMAINING BELOW 10 KTS TOMORROW. PASSING CIRRUS AND A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU WILL BE THE ONLY THING IN THE WAY OF ANOTHER SKC DAY.
OUTLOOK... VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RESTRICTION AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES FROM
NW- SE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY,
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...AK/LUPO
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