627
FXUS61 KPBZ 111903
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
203 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. THEY ARE CAPABLE OF REDUCING VISIBILITY AND PRODUCING
QUICK ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADWAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY.
2) GUSTY WIND TODAY, WITH 55 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
TUCKER COUNTY WV.
3) RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COLD WEATHER
TREND TO FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DUE TO A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG VORT MAX OVER THE REGION, BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE MORE OUT OF THE W-WNW WITH SOME CONNECTION OFF
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS AFTERNOON, LAKE WATER TEMPERATURE TO
850 MB DELTA T IS AROUND 14-15 DEG C (LOW/MARGINAL SIDE), WHICH
IS PROVIDING SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE SHOWERS ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE-LINE, WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS, WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH
FLAT LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO
CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO BACK OUT OF THE SW CUTTING OFF CONNECTION
WITH THE LAKES. MOISTURE ALSO RAPIDLY DECREASES IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT, TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND
MIXING WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN GUSTY WIND ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW
MORNING, WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AS SURFACE LEVEL TROUGH
CLIPS US JUST TO THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A TEMPORARY WARMUP (TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE AVERAGE) IS
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DEEPENING TROUGH. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. SNOW CHANCES COULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER
DEEPENS, AND A SURFACE WAVE POSSIBLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM MID-WEEK, A COLDER WEATHER TREND IS
EXPECTED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
2) VFR RETURNS MONDAY MORNING
------------------------------------------------------------
GUSTY WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION IN
THE AM. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 35KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE LESSENING SOMEWHAT TONIGHT, BUT STILL GUSTY AT TIMES AS
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY DECOUPLING. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70-90% CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND A 30-50% CHANCE
OF IFR CIGS UNTIL MONDAY MORNING, BUT MOST OBS ARE CURRENTLY LOW
VFR SO INCORPORATED THAT INTO MOST TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN DROPPED TO MVFR FOR THE NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW WILL END FOR MOST (SOUTH OF FKL
AND DUJ) UNDER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
VFR RETURNS MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL RESTRICTIONS
RETURN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ512-514.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...WM/LUPO
AVIATION...88
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