968
FXUS61 KPBZ 110010
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
810 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGES AND AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
AND WILL WARRANT MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A ZONAL MEAN
SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING UPSTREAM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. MACHINE-LEARNING CONVECTIVE HAZARD GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER AS LONG AS THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE,
WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES THEN FAVOR A
PATTERN SHIFT LATE NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING SETTING
UP OVER EASTERN CANADA (AND UPPER RIDGING OUT WEST). IF THAT
ENDS UP VERIFYING, IT COULD POINT TOWARDS A PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER ON THE HORIZON UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND SLIDE SOUTH WITH TIME. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS WITH THE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IF MORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT SOME
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THE ONE TERMINAL THAT MAY STAY IN
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT WOULD BE MGW. HAVE PUT IN FOG
THROUGH THE 08Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME AT THE TERMINALS. KMGW MIGHT
BE THE MORE DIFFICULT FORECAST BUT HAVE PUT RESTRICTIONS HERE IN
THE FORECAST AS WELL.
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR UP
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME FEW CUMULUS LAYERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR WILL RETURN AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES.
OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH RETURNS SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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