641
FXUS61 KPBZ 120822
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
422 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY WARM ON TUESDAY; NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH COLD FRONT.
2) BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, POTENTIAL SNOW SHOWERS, AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BRING A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 18 TO 19 DEGREES CELSIUS, WHICH IS NEAR
THE 99TH PERCENTILE WHEN IT COMES TO CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT,
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW-80S TUESDAY, WITH
A FEW CLIMATE SITES POTENTIALLY APPROACHING, TYING, OR BREAKING
DAILY RECORD HIGHS. NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH (PHD) HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF TYING OR BREAKING THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 81F. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW-60S MAY ALSO CHALLENGE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SITES.
A PASSING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF I-80 WEDNESDAY. PROBABILITIES
APPEAR HIGHER OVER THE MIDWEST OPPOSED TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. PROBABILITY OF >= 0.50
INCHES IN OUR REGION RANGES BETWEEN 10-30%.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST MIDWEEK WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OUT
OF CANADA, BRINGING THE REGION ITS FIRST TASTE OF WINTER THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY EARLY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE
TIMING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AMOUNT LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL IMPACTS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. STRONG COLD-AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE 850MB TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO AROUND -1 CELSIUS FRIDAY, WHILE 850MB WIND SPEEDS OF
30-40KTS SUPPORT STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF POWER
OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREE LIMBS, PARTICULARLY WHILE FOLIAGE
REMAINS ON THE TREES.
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY,
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -6 TO -8 CELSIUS (NEAR THE
5TH PERCENTILE WHEN IT COMES TO CLIMATOLOGY) UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW. WITH THIS NOTED COLD AIR ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG
LAKE ERIE, RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
ALSO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, POTENTIALLY ENDING THE
GROWING SEASON FOR A LARGE AREA.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, RESIDUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD STATUS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
MVFR TO IFR CIGS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT TERMINALS. WINDS ARE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO WEST DURING THIS PERIOD.
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS NORTH OF PIT, MAINLY FOR THE BVI, FKL, AND DUJ
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
STRAY SHOWERS MAY PASS NEAR FKL/DUJ WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER LOW SCENARIOS. THE CURRENT POTENTIAL
FOR 30KT GUSTS ON FRIDAY AT KPIT IS 80%, 40% CHANCE OF GUSTING
TO 40KTS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page