991
FXUS61 KPBZ 242359
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
759 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON OR
EVENING STORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVE UPDATE.
PREVIOUS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY, WARM, AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREEES ABOVE THE LOW 50S
AVERAGES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
THE PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES REMAINS IN CANADA. A SLOW-MOVING
TROUGH IN THE SRN PLAINS WILL ENABLE AN ERN-CONUS RIDGE TO AMPLIFY
EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE OH VALLEY.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, LACK OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND BROAD SUBSIDENCE AMID THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL SUPPRESS A WIDESPREAD THREAT OF CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY HALF
OF THE WEEK, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL BEING ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE IN AN AREA WEST OF A LINE FROM ZZV TO FKL AS STORMS FORM IN
CENTRAL OH AND NEAR LAKE ERIE.
TEMPERATURE DURING THE EARLY WEEK WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM, WITH
SOME SITES APPROACHING 90F ON TUE BEFORE A SLOW TREND INTO THE MID-
UPPER 80S LATER IN THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A PROMINENT TROUGH WILL SET UP IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK, WHICH WILL SUPPLY A COLD FRONT'S ATTENDANT FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN AN UNSTABLE AND MODESTLY SHEARED AIRMASS.
DRIER AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER ARE EXPECTED IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS WITH A PERSISTENT ERN CONUS TROUGH.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE MARRED ONLY BY LOCALIZED
PERI-DAWN FOG. SCATTERED AFTN CUMULUS MONDAY WILL FADE AS TEMPERATURE
FALLS BLO CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS DURING THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK
LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PERI-DAWN FOG. RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH A THU COLD FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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