237  
FXUS61 KPBZ 311434  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
1034 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS  
POSSIBLE TODAY. A BRIEF BIT OF DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS  
EXPECTED TUESDAY. RAIN RETURNS BY MIDWEEK AS DO WARMER  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES.  
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF  
PITTSBURGH THIS AFTERNOON; CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS ARE VERY  
LOW.  
- GUSTY WIND AND FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.  
-------------------------------------------------------------------  
 
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OHIO  
AND EDGING INTO FAR NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, WITH A GENERALLY  
THIN BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG IT. SOME POCKETS OF DRIZZLE ARE BEING  
SEEN FURTHER EAST IN WEAK OVERRUNNING/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF  
THE BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS  
DROPPING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE. AT LEAST FOR OUR  
EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE REACHED THIS  
MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.  
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO STEEPENING WITH THE CAA WHICH, IN TANDEM  
WITH TIGHTER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS, IS RESULTING IN A WIND  
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH. THAT'LL BE THE  
THEME OF THE DAY TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND ADDITIONAL  
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE  
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THAT WILL BE EAST OF PITTSBURGH WHERE  
LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE  
BOUNDARY WILL WORK TO GENERATE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY; THE  
HREF PROBS OF >100 J/KG SBCAPE PEAKS AROUND 70% TOWARD THE  
RIDGES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT  
IMPRESSIVE WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND A LOWERING INVERSION LIKELY  
CUTTING OFF ANY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT BELOW THE HAIL GROWTH  
LAYER.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT THE REGION DURING THE  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH  
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SINKING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL  
HOLD FIRM INTO TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT  
NIGHTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH VALUES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING  
NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AND INTO THE MID 30S SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- A COOL-DOWN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
- WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS SHOWERS  
-------------------------------------------------------------------  
 
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN TUESDAY. BOTH ARE RATHER  
SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM CLIMBS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST  
ON WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A WARM FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION. THIS  
USHERS IN THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY  
-------------------------------------------------------------------  
 
THERE LOOKS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A BOUNDARY TO STALL ACROSS THE  
OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING LATE-WEEK AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND ANY FURTHER WOBBLING OF THIS STATIONARY  
BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE EXPECTED IMPACTS BUT IT  
LOOKS LIKELY THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE OH VALLEY IS IN FOR ROUNDS OF  
RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WATER IMPACTS. IT REMAINS  
VERY EARLY TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THESE IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST  
BUT CLUSTERED ANALYSIS. LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES YIELD SEVERAL DAYS  
WHERE THE CHANCE TO SEE >1 INCH OF RAINFALL IN 24HRS IS ABOVE  
30% IN OUR REGION. THERE IS ALSO A NOTED 50% CHANCE OF SOME  
RIVERS REACHING 'ACTION' STAGE, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN PITTSBURGH.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING, AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF  
THE TAF PERIOD, UNDER LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE. A SURFACE COLD  
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND SHIFT WIND OUT OF  
THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE MORNING  
HOURS UP TO 30 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN  
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR  
LBE/MGW. THEY SHOULD MOSTLY BE NON-RESTRICTIVE IN TERMS OF VIS.  
CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF BOUNCE TO HIGH-END IFR THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON AS CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOVER AROUND THE 1KFT MARK BASED  
ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.  
 
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL  
REINFORCE CLOUD COVERAGE BENEATH A SINKING INVERSION THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. FKL/DUJ ARE MORE LIKELY TO GO IFR AFTER  
23Z OR SO WITH 50-70% PROBABILITIES FILTERING IN WITH INCREASED  
LAKE MOISTURE. AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TOWARD DAYBREAK  
TUESDAY, RESTRICTION PROBABILITIES DIMINISH.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
VFR RETURNS TUESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING  
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY  
WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...22/MLB  
NEAR TERM...MLB/CL  
SHORT TERM...22/88/AK  
LONG TERM...88/AK  
AVIATION...22/MLB  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab OH Page
The Nexlab PA Page
The Nexlab WV Page
The Nexlab MD Page
Main Text Page