402
FXUS61 KPBZ 301758 CCA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
158 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO MUCH OF THE WFO
PITTSBURGH FORECAST AREA, WITH A COUPLE OF ZONES ADDED TO THE
HEAT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE, OVERALL EXPECTATIONS FOR THE WEATHER
PATTERN AND OVERALL MESSAGING REMAIN THE SAME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MULTI-DAY HEAT WAVE THAT POSES RISKS TO
PUBLIC HEALTH IF OUTDOORS OR WITHOUT COOLING CAPABILITIES.
2) PATTERN SHIFT INCREASES RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING
SEVERE THREATS, DURING THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE EXPECTATIONS REGARDING THE
LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE (I.E SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDERNEATH A STOUT
UPPER RIDGE) STRONGLY FAVORS THE PERSISTENCE OF DRY WEATHER AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHTS LOWS END UP
VARYING A DEGREE OR TWO FROM CURRENT FORECASTED VALUES, BUT THIS
WILL NOT REDUCE THE HEAT RISK THE REGION IS SET TO EXPERIENCE.
ELEVATED DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TO AID HEAT INDICES TO REGULARLY
TOUCH 100 THIS WEEK WHILE LIMITING THE DEGREE OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING.
THE MAIN DECISION TODAY WAS TO EXPAND THE FOOTPRINT OF THE EXTREME
HEAT WARNING TO MOST NON-RIDGE ZONES IN THE CWA, WHILE SLIGHTLY
EXPANDING THE (NOW SMALLER) HEAT ADVISORY. NOT EVERYONE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE HEAT INDEX CRITERIA OF 105+ THAT IS THE
BASIS OF SUCH WARNINGS. HOWEVER, A FEW FACTORS JUSTIFY THIS
UPGRADE. MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE 100+ HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER A
4 DAY PERIOD, ADDING TO THE CUMULATIVE IMPACT. ALSO, WIDESPREAD
WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO RELIABLE AIR CONDITIONING.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN NWS PROBABILISTIC HEAT RISK VALUES, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN THE WARNING HAVING A 60% OR GREATER CHANCE
OF REACHING THE EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) CATEGORY ON THURSDAY.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATION ZONES OF EASTERN PRESTON AND TUCKER HAVE
NOT BEEN ADDED TO HEAT HEADLINE AREAS FOR NOW, IN A NOD TO
NEIGHBORING WFO COLLABORATION AS WELL AS SMALLER AREAL/TEMPORAL
EXTENT OF 100+ HEAT INDICES. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES HERE FOR AT
LEAST MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK REMAIN QUITE HIGH BY
THURSDAY, AND AN EVENTUAL EXPANSION OF AT LEAST A HEAT ADVISORY
TO THESE ZONES REMAINS POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS OF HEADLINE STATUS,
IT REMAINS BEST TO START PRACTICING HEAT RISK MITIGATION EFFORTS
NOW. MORE INFORMATION ON HEAT-RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND
AT WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/HEAT-TOOLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES THAT
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, AS SHORTWAVES COMING OVER THE RIDGE BRING A REDUCTION
IN 500MB HEIGHTS. OF COURSE, SUCH SUMMERTIME SHIFTS FROM STRONG
UPPER RIDGING TO MORE OF A WNW FLOW PATTERN OFTEN COME WITH
INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER RISKS. REGARDING THIS PERIOD, ALL WE
CAN SAY WITH ANY LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS THAT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE, AND THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. FINER DETAILS ON TIMING,
RAINFALL POTENTIAL, AND LOCATION/LEVEL OF SEVERE RISKS WILL HAVE
TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK, AND EVEN THEN, SMALL MESOSCALE
DETAILS COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON THE OVERALL OUTCOMES. CIPS
ANALOGS/LONG RANGE MACHINE-LEARNING GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE DAYS TO WATCH.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL HIGHER IMPACT OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH PLANNED
HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES DURING THE WEEKEND, IT IS PRUDENT FOR
DECISION MAKERS TO BE ALERT OF THIS RISK AND CONTINUE TO TRACK
THE LATEST OUTLOOKS IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DAYTIME CU WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET, DEVELOPING AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY TERMINAL GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING.
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT THROUGH UPSTATE NY MAY GENERATE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR FKL/DUJ AFTER
02Z.
OUTLOOK...
UPPER RIDGING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER
AND GENERAL VFR THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 94 RECORD: 93/1964
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 73 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 71 RECORD: 74/1933
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 72 RECORD: 74/1934
--
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 97 RECORD: 96/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 98/1901
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 75/1901
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 71/2014
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/1913
--
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 98 RECORD: 95/1966
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 97 RECORD: 97/1931
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/2018
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 73 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/2018
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 76/1903
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 71/1903
--
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 98/1898
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 99/1898
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 77/1903
MORGANTOWN WV AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA AREA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1898
ZANESVILLE OH AREA FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 78/1935
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-077.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ074-076-078.
OH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-509.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ510-511.
CORRECTED WORDING
DISCUSSION...CL/FRAZIER
AVIATION...RACKLEY/FRAZIER
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