893
FXUS61 KPBZ 241203
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
803 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2019
SYNOPSIS
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
HEIGHT RISES, AND A SURFACE HIGH, WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TONIGHT, AS THE REGION RESTS ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING EASTERN CONUS RIDGE. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL WAVES, MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FIND ITS
WAY THROUGH THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A BOOST AS
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE REGION REMAINS WELL
ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR, MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TO
LIMIT CONVECTION UNTIL THE TROUGH ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING SO ANY
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, MODELS
ARE HINTING AT A WEAK BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL AND
ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY WILL SPRINT TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MID-WEST AND MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL WORK TO MAINTAIN DECREASING 500MB HEIGHTS, AND THE
STALLED FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY DIRECTED TOWARD NORTHERN WV SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS MOVEMENT WILL FORCE THE MIDWEST SURFACE LOW TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD AS WELL. THIS SETUP WOULD PROMOTE A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THAT WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE
EASTERN CONUS RIDGE. THE AREA WILL LIE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
SAID RIDGE, MEANING THE WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD
AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS QUICKLY PASS OUR CWA.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RESIDUAL
CIRRUS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.
ADDED MENTION OF VCSH BY SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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