577
FXUS61 KPBZ 101753
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
153 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN OHIO, SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY. MORE CERTAINTY IN
SEVERE/FLOOD CHANCES TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STORMS WILL BRING NEAR-DAILY FLOOD AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL COMPLICATE
ADDITIONAL SEVERE CHANCES INTO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. FROM A MESOSCALE PERSPECTIVE, WE WOULD EXPECT
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PASSING MCV, AND PLENTIFUL
CLOUD COVER MAY STABLE COLD POOLS AROUND FOR THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. REALISTICALLY, THE ONLY ABLE THAT MAY
BE ABLE TO CLEAR AND DESTABILIZE AGAIN WOULD MOST LIKELY BE
INTO OHIO, WHERE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR INITIATE AND BACK-BUILD
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY FOR THIS MORNING COLD POOL. THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS WOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW, BUT THE FLOOD
THREAT COULD BE MODERATE SHOULD THIA ACTUALLY REALIZE. IN THE
EVENT THAT THIS DOES NOT, HAZARDS ARE LIKELY OVER THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, CAMS ARE AGAIN N BI-MODAL ON ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. IN ONES THAT DO CONVECT, IT SEEMS LIKE EASTERN OHIO
INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA IS THE FAVORED DEVELOPMENT ZONE.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES, FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY RISK. SEVERE CHANCES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOWER, WITH MOST HREF SOUNDING SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING. ALL THIS TO SAY, LARGE HAIL OR WINDS COULDN'T BE RULES
OUT SHOULD CELLS GROW PARTICULARLY STRONG, THOUGH THIS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DESTABILIZATION IS AGAIN EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE STORM
CHANCES. APART FROM RUN-OF-THE MILL DOWNBURST AND FLOOD THREATS
WITH PWATS OF ~1.6 INCHES AND DCAPE NEAR 800, WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS PASSAGES INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
CAMS HINT ON DEVELOPMENT IN OHIO TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION. SHOULD IS RUN OVER EASTERN
OHIO, WIND WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, AND TORNADOES / FLASH
FLOODING WOULD BE THE SECONDARY THREAT. EVEN IF THE MCS PASSES
TO THE SOUTHWEST, A BOUNDARY COLD FIRE MORE CONVECTION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING
CONCERNS.
ALL THIS TO SAY, THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT STORM/THREAT CHANCE TIED TO THE
PRIOR, SO MONITORING THE FORECAST FREQUENTLY MAY BE IMPERATIVE.
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME WHICH MAY BE SEVERE, WHILE
FLOODING SEEMS POSSIBLE (MOST LIKELY FOR EAST OH, SOUTHWEST PA,
NORTH WV) WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 2" TO 5" POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
48 HOURS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING, THOUGH CHANCES OF SYSTEMS SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH TIME AS THE DEVELOPMENT REGION IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS LIKELY AFTER 00Z WITH A
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. THESE DETAILS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE
MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES. IN ANY CASE, STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY. THE CURRENT TAFS
REPRESENT BEST GUESS TIMING BASED ON LATEST AVAILABLE DATA BUT
IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.
FOLLOWING THIS EVENING'S STORMS, WE EXPECTED A BRIEF PERIOD
WITHOUT PRECIPITATION. DUE TO MOISTURE TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE,
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE. BY THE MORNING, ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MAINLY EASTERN OHIO (SLIGHTLY EXTENDING
INTO WESTERN PA). THE TIMING AND LOCATION FOR TOMORROW'S
SHOWERS/STORMS IS ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK... ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH VARYING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF STORMS FOR A
GIVEN DAY IS LIKELY TO BE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AND DEPENDENT ON
UPSTREAM STORM PROGRESSION. MOST RESTRICTIONS DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE TIED TO STORM ACTIVITY AND/OR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
RESULTANT OF RAIN PLUS OVERNIGHT CLEARING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ031.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ039-048-049-
057>059-068-069.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ003-004-012-021-
509>514.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK
AVIATION...LUPO
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