351
FXUS61 KPBZ 260600
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
200 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY TODAY, WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND, BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY,
MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARE PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDWEST REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY OUTRUN MORE FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM COULD REACH
AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT AS A
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHERE MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND CROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ML CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON, WITH AROUND
20KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AS WELL, WHICH COULD INCREASE DCAPE VALUES AND CREATE A
MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL, MAINLY ACROSS WRN PA AND NRN
WV. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THIS AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. DRY
WEATHER SHOULD THEN RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT. THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY,
THOUGH ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING IFR VALLEY FOG, VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP, WITH INCREASING CIRRUS ABOVE. CALM WIND THIS MORNING
SHOULD BECOME SOUTH AT AROUND 5KT.
OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY,
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG,
GENERAL VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM
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