112
FXUS61 KPBZ 071742
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
142 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE LAUREL
MOUNTAINS BORDERING CTP.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
2) MORE LIMITED CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
3) UNSETTLED PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLOOD POTENTIAL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY AND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST. A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH FROM NE OH AND THROUGH
WESTERN PA THOROUGH THE DAY. THE NBM MAX HIGHLIGHTS THE BORDER
COUNTIES FOR 24 HOUR QPF WITH UP TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
FAYETTE, WESTMORELAND, AND INDIANA COUNTIES. SHOULD CELLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVERPREFORM, AND THIS IS LIKELY GIVEN
THE 1.7 - 1.8 INCH PWATS INDICATED IN THE 12Z SOUNDING.
THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A SHORT TERM FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 10 PM.
THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WOULD BE THE FACT THAT SOME
DRY AIR WAS INDICATED IN THE 12Z SOUNDING AND WITH DCAPE VALUES
NEARING 1000 J/KG IN EASTERN OH, THERE COULD BE A DOWN BURST IF
A DECENT STORM FORMS IN THIS AREA, EVEN THROUGH, A GENERAL
THUNDER OUTLOOK IS IN PLACE BY SPC. ALL CAMS AND ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVE THREAT COMES TO AN END BY 03Z. THE FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH FLAT RIDGING AND A POSSIBLE CAP ALOFT. EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS,
THOUGH OUTFLOWS AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN
A SHOWER OR STORM OUTSIDE OF THE TERRAIN AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE THURSDAY PERIOD AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A TROUGH
SETTING UP OVER THE EAST AND DEEPENING. THIS WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CREATE SOME ISSUES WITH
FLOOD OR SEVERE WEATHER. DAYTIME HEATING EACH DAY ALONG WITH THE
LIFT IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS
WELL, ALTHOUGH NOT OUTLOOKED BY SPC, THE CSU MACHINE LEARNING
HIGHLIGHTS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE WIND OUTLOOK. THIS SETUP
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL NEED MONITORED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A
MARGINAL IN SPC AND/OR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MORNING STRATUS HAS LIFTED INTO A BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS
DECK OF MVFR TO VFR CEILING HEIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CROSSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BEST COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED GENERALLY EAST
OF PIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH ACTIVITY WANING DURING THE
EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE SHORTWAVE. TEMPOS/PROB30S WERE USED FOR SEVERAL HOURS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH LBE AND MGW HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A BRIEFLY IMPACTFUL THUNDERSTORM. VISIBILITY MAY BE VERY
BRIEFLY REDUCED BY HEAVY RAIN, BUT GUSTY WIND IS LESS OF A
THREAT TODAY. SITES LIKE FKL AND ZZV, ALREADY BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER.
AFTER PRECIPITATION WRAPS UP TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
AND FOG IS IN THE CARDS. EXACT IMPACTS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
WHICH TERMINALS ARE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW, LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND
STILL MOIST GROUND, FEEL THAT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN, WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER THE 13Z TO
15Z WINDOW.
OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED CONVECTION AND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE RIDGES SOUTHEAST OF PIT. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. RESTRICTION AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ073>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...CL
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