643
FXUS61 KPBZ 100721
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
321 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGES AND AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH; LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREAT.
2) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL WARRANT MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST THREE
HOURS THIS MORNING. REMNANT SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH
OF I-70 ALONG A SHALLOW MOISTURE BOUNDARY. RAINFALL RATES REMAIN
LIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND DO NOT CURRENTLY POSE A
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT. HOWEVER, FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR AREAS
THAT RECEIVED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN EARLIER AND MAY CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF.
WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL LARGELY DEPEND
ON THE EVOLUTION AND REMNANTS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
(MCSS) CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. THE THREAT
FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
REGION.
FOR OUR AREA, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LIGHTNING FROM
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 2PM AND 7PM THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MACHINE-LEARNING MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING ON FRIDAY, OUR LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AS A RESULT, THIS WILL ALLOW
DISTURBANCES FORMING UPSTREAM (TO OUR WEST) TO TRACK INTO OUR
AREA. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN COULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AND/OR
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CIG RESTRICTIONS AT AREA TERMINALS REMAIN VARIABLE EARLY THIS
MORNING, FLUCTUATING BETWEEN VFR TO LIFR AS RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 13Z TODAY. INCREASING DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD HELP LIFT
CIGS TO MVFR AND/OR VFR BETWEEN 13Z TO 15Z.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON,PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PIT, BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. PROB30S
REMAIN IN PLACE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DISORGANIZED SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORM THAT PASSES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS IN CIGS AND VIS.
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AT THE SFC WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
30KTS.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EXPECTED CONVECTION.
VFR SHOULD RETURN FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RETURNS SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...HEFFERAN
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