433
FXUS61 KPBZ 061037
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
637 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES, JUST LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AND
LOWERED DEW POINTS FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS, FOG AND FROST PRODUCTION WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 13Z. THE CLEAR SKIES WITH THE NEW AIR MASS
IN PLACE WITH CALM WINDS WILL MAKE FOR ISOLATED FROST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE FROST POTENTIAL THEN BACKS OFF A BIT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH, THE NBM'S PERFORMANCE OF
TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN TRENDING A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM AND
DECIDED TO USE THE 25TH PERCENTILE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE FROST
POTENTIAL WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO FOREST COUNTY FOR THURSDAY
MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE RETURN OF RAIN BY
SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SWING A TROPICAL SYSTEM
FROM THE WESTERN GULF NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
BRING PRECIP NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE
THIS IS A WAYS OUT AND SOME DETAILS CAN CHANGE, THE MEAN
SOLUTION IS SHOWING 0.40 TO 0.70 OF PRECIP. THE 75TH PERCENTILE
OF THIS SOLUTION UPS THE TOTALS TO AN INCH. CERTAINLY NOTHING
CONCERNING AT THIS POINT BUT BEARS WATCHING.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SUNSHINE AND MIXING WILL ERODE MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS
THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE ENSURE VFR WITH LIGHT WIND TODAY. A
FEW CU AND CIRRUS MAY PASS (MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST PA) THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
A WEAK, MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING COULD INDUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FAVORING
NORTHWEST PA. OUTSIDE OF THAT AND VARYING CHANCES FOR MORNING
RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG, VFR IS FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ009-015-016-
074-076>078.
OH...NONE.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ512>514.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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