176
FXUS61 KPBZ 110707
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
307 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. CROSSING LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COLDER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT UNDER A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARMER TODAY
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THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR AREAS OF FROST THIS MORNING.
LOCALIZED AREAS (OUTSIDE OF CANAAN VALLEY) ARE NEAR FREEZING,
MAINLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. WILL MAINTAIN THE FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES AS IS.
RIVER VALLEY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR, TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE, SEASONABLE
LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
- SHOWER CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT
- LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
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DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW
ALOFT, AND A WEAK COLD FRONT, WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PA THROUGH
CENTRAL OH SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS, AND BECOMES NEARLY
PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT. THE MAIN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. MINIMAL TO NO PRECIP CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT.
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT, AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS IN/IL IN
RESPONSE. THIS LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD THE REGION, PULLING THE
SURFACE FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS AREAS FROM NEAR
PIT NORTHWARD, WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION ON SUNDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. AN
APPROACHING JET ALOFT SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE ASCENT AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY.
INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON, SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. MOST MODELS TAKE THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OH INTO NW
PA, WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. IF
THE NORTHERN TRACK VERIFIES, THIS WOULD RESULT IN A GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. A
SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD MEAN MORE OF A STRATIFORM PRECIP, WITH
LESS CHANCES OF THUNDER AND WIND GUSTS. UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS IN THE DETAILS OF HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, AND
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
AFTER FROPA, COOLER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WIND, AND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK
- DRY AND WARMER TOWARD LATE WEEK
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MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY, AS IT DEEPENS INTO A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE NE CONUS. COLD NW FLOW OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES, AND
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW, WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF I 80. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO -1 TO -3 DEG C BY TUESDAY, AND A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD
MIX IN AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS
IT OPENS BACK INTO A TROUGH. RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS CURRENTLY DEVELOP IN AREAS NORTH AND SOUTH
OF PIT. FOR THE 06Z UPDATE, TEMPOS WERE ADDED TO A FEW
TERMINALS TO COVER THE POTENTIAL OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
(MORE-SO FOR FKL/AGC) THROUGH DAWN.
SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY DISSOLVE PATCHES OF FOG BETWEEN 12Z
TO 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
LLWS WAS ADDED TO FKL AND DUJ EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTH AFTER 05Z. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BETWEEN 10Z TO 11Z AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS
EAST; BREEZY CONDITIONS, 15KTS TO 20KTS, MAY LINGER BRIEFLY
NEAR LBE BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK
VFR FAVORED UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LIFTING
SURFACE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
RESTRICTIONS INTO NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PROLONGED
UPPER TROUGHING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ020-021.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-029-031-073>078.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001>004-012.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ021-509>514.
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/CL
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