049
FXUS61 KPBZ 110248 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1048 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH EXPIRED AT 10 PM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH
2) COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION TOMORROW; SHOWERS AND
STORMS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH EXPECTED AFTER 12PM
3) ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH WANING INSTABILITY. A FEW
SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLE A THUNDERSTORM, WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH, AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FROM THE NORTH. REMNANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH BETWEEN 12PM AND
3PM ON SATURDAY. WITH FLOW MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT
(WESTERLY), THERE COULD BE SOME TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PROMPT LOCALIZED FLOODING SOUTH OF I-70.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS. HIGHS COULD AGAIN
REACH THE LOWER 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING MAJOR HEAT IMPACTS (WHERE IT
AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION AS WELL AS HEALTH
SYSTEMS AND INDUSTRIES) RANGES BETWEEN 40 TO 55% ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY . THE ELEVATED RISK IS DRIVEN BY
MULTIPLE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F,
COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING AROUND 70F, LIMITING
NIGHTTIME COOLING AND INCREASING CUMULATIVE HEAT STRESS.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STORMS ARE GENERALLY TRENDING DOWNWARD IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING WANES. EXPECT MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG TO SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT IN A STAGNANT
AND MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER; TERMINAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY PEAK
BETWEEN 07Z-12Z. SLOW RISES IN STRATUS AMID DIURNAL HEATING
FAVORED SUNDAY BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN DEVELOP (MAINLY SOUTH
OF HLG/PIT) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FAVOR LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF I-70 SATURDAY. AFTER ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND
FOG POTENTIAL, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT A RETURN TO VFR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM/HEFFERAN
AVIATION...CERMAK/FRAZIER
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