307
FXUS61 KPBZ 140600
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
200 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY WITH
A CROSSING COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS STILL
LIKELY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING, WITH NEAR OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
2) STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES ON FRIDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WIND. MUCH COLDER LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
3) MAINLY DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. THE SURFACE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS MORNING FROM PITTSBURGH AND
POINTS NORTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE CROSSING FRONT.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO
INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED TO BECOME SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ML CAPE
IS PROGGED TO BE FROM 500-750 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR, WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 35KT. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
SOUTH IN A MARGINAL RISK, OR LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5, FOR SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WOULD LIKELY
BE ANY CLOUD COVER THAT LIMITS SURFACE HEATING, ALONG WITH A
RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW FOR THIS DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT,
WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ARE BOTH
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION THURSDAY. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO PULL THE COLD FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER IN THE DAY, WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH, RESULTING IN
A SLOWER FROPA ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY, PULLING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG WIND FLOW ALOFT, MIXING,
AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS (GREATER THAN 45 MPH) HAVE DECREASED
SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN AREAS, WITH MOST AREAS AT 40
PERCENT OR LESS. IT STILL APPEARS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ACROSS WV HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND, GENERALLY AT 60-90 PERCENT.
REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE WINDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH
MIXING IN COLD ADVECTION AFTER FROPA. WIND SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
THE CROSSING UPPER TROUGH AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BRING
RAIN SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THESE SHOULD TAPER OFF
SATURDAY MORNING UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. CURRENT PROGS OF
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM -3 TO -6 DEG C BY SATURDAY
MORNING, WHEN A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX WITH ANY SHOWERS IN
THE RIDGES AND AREAS NORTH OF I-80.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE FROST FRIDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW OUTLYING AREAS THAT ARE NEAR
FREEZING. A MORE FAVORABLE NIGHT FOR FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT, WHERE DIMINISHING WIND AND
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXIT EASTWARD BY SUNDAY, WITH A LESS
AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS
FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDED
PROB30 MENTIONS TO SITES FROM PIT-LBE AND POINTS NORTH THIS
MORNING, WITH THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THIS POTENTIAL SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO ZZV
AND MGW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD, AND
INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE SURFACE BASED. THERE COULD BE SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS IN THIS CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS
SOUTHWARD.
MVFR CIGS ARE EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROMM N-S AFTER
FROPA, AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 COULD ALSO SEE IFR FOG
AND STRATUS WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A LATER
FROPA.
OUTLOOK...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THURSDAY, THOUGH
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN SHOWER AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM W-E
FRIDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND W-NW WIND GUSTS FROM 30-40KT. GUSTS
FROM 40-45 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
VFR SHOULD RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WIND DIMINISHES UNDER
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM
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