174
FXUS61 KPBZ 011717
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
117 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE OVERALL FORECAST MESSAGE REMAINS UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURE DEVELOPS LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DESPITE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY, LIMITED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE MEANS THE REGION SEES
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE PREVAILING DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE SLIDES EAST TO END THE WEEK, RESULTING
IN TEMPERATURE RISING TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS BUT OFFERING
LIMITED RISKS FOR HEAT IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF URBAN CENTERS DUE TO
DELAYS IN RISING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE VARY IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE LIKELY
BREAKDOWN OF SAID BRIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
(MEANING CURRENT DAY 6/7 POPS MAY VARY NOTABLE FOR ENSUING
FORECAST CYCLES). REGARDLESS, SUCH OCCURRENCE FAVORS THE
REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SOME
MODICUM OF SEVERE RISKS PENDING THE FINER DETAILS OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MIX OF HIGH
CLOUDS AND HIGH-BASED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING AND
VEERING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AGAIN WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING.
OUTLOOK...
A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR THROUGH FRIDAY,
SAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TERRAIN-DRIVERN SHOWER FOR LBE/MGW
TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. RESTRICTION CHANCES INCREASE INTO
THE WEEKEND, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...RACKLEY/MILCAREK
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