785
FXUS61 KPBZ 060555
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
155 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FREEZE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
A PORTION OF OHIO WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT
2) FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL THROUGH WED MORNING SOUTH OF I-70
WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN
3) DRY AND WARMER MID TO LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION TODAY, WITH A SECOND, WEAKER WAVE TONIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE PRECIP SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF
I-70, THOUGH SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN ANY SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC
LAYER, WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE PRECIP IN THE FORM OF
RAIN.
A SECONDARY TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS, COMBINED WITH WNW FLOW OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES,
WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAIN, AND THEN SNOW,
SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF PIT. ANY POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH, AND LIMITED TO GRASSY
AREAS AT NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN FOR SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS OH AND WV. THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR AREAS OF FROST. ISSUED A
FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THAT PORTION
OF OHIO, WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANOTHER FROST
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WIND WILL LIKELY BE TOO
HIGH FOR FROST FORMATION. ANOTHER FREEZE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE OH AND WV AREAS SOUTH OF I-70,
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT BY MID
WEEK, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THOUGH LATE WEEK AS
THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKS TO THE SW WELL AHEAD OF A WRN CONUS
TROUGH. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY AS A TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A LOW-END VFR STRATOCU DECK IS GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD
OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES FOLLOW THE DEPARTURE OF THIS CLOUD DECK, BUT ONLY
FOR A BRIEF TIME AS UPSTREAM ANOTHER WAVE WITH LOW-END VFR
STRATOCU IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 12Z WITH THAT NEXT WAVE, AS WELL AS A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF PIT. TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SOME -RASN TO START AT FKL/DUJ, WHERE CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
ALSO MOST LIKELY TO DIP TO MVFR. GRADUAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING
OF THE DAYTIME STRATOCU DECK WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS START THE PERIOD OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BUT
GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE
VEERING BACK TO WNW BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. REGARDLESS OF
DIRECTION, EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE RELAXING SOME TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
ANY LINGERING PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS WITHIN COOLER NW FLOW
INTO TUESDAY MORNING DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THEN
EXPECTING A MORE PROLONGED DURATION OF VFR MID AND LATE WEEK,
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE AGAIN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ057-058-068-
069.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
OHZ057-058-068-069.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-
509>512.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...CERMAK
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