296
FXUS61 KPBZ 091908
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
208 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT
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THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS TRAVELING THROUGH CENTRAL OH RIGHT NOW. BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING IN A ROUND OF COLDER TEMPERATURES AND CHANGING
THE RAIN TO SNOW. THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A SEPARATE BAND
ALONG THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A BAND INTO NORTHERN
WV LATE TONIGHT AS WELL AS JUST OFF THE LAKE INTO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AS A WHOLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY PERIOD,
THE NBM PROBS ARE GIVING 60% TO 80% OVER THESE LOCATIONS SO DID
INDEED ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WV
RIDGES AND THE 3 NORTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. ON AVERAGE, 2" GROUND (SUB SFC) TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION, SO ONLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH (MAINLY ON GRASS AND ELEVATED SURFACES) ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY IN MOST CASES. THE ELEVATED
SURFACES AND RIDGES WILL CERTAINLY SEE SNOW ACCUMULATION EARLIER
THAN THE LOWER SURFACES.
THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION OVER THE
REGION MONDAY. DESPITE SOME MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE
PICTURE REMAINS THE SAME THAT NW FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY.
BY THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY, THE WINDS WILL FINALLY SHIFT TO A
WNW TRAJECTORY GIVING THE MAXIMUM UPSLOPE TO THE LAUREL RIDGES
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA (2-4 INCHES) HERE AS
WELL SO DID ISSUE FOR THE LAURELS TO COME INTO EFFECT AT 18Z
MONDAY.
OVERALL, EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOW EXITS BUT LEAVES A
STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL MAKE FOR
30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
- TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD OCCUR IN AREAS UNDER ANY LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW
BANDS
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT BELOW NORMAL
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THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
LAKE ERIE WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND +12 TO +14
DEG C. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -12 DEG C,
LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIKELY. THE MOST IMPACTED AREAS
WILL BE MERCER, VENANGO, AND FOREST COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE COLDER AIR ALOFT BRINGS THE DGZ DOWN INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, SO MORE EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH IS POSSIBLE. MESOSCALE
FEATURES (SUCH AS A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH) WILL GREATLY AFFECT
SFC TO 850MB FLOW AND THUS THE EXACT POSITION, DURATION, AND
INTENSITY OF ANY HEAVIER FOCUSED LAKE BANDS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY, THE NBM HAS A 30%-45% FOR >1.5" OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BANDS NORTH OF I-80. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND PATTERN OVER THE COMING FORECAST
PERIODS. LATE ON TUESDAY, THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AND THE MOST EFFICIENT LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS TURNED NORTH
OF THE REGION.
TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID-20S
THEN WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT BELOW NORMAL. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING AS COLD
AS TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF I-80
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
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BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AREAS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80 AS INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY MID WEEK, HOWEVER, THEY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS (TYPICALLY LOW 50S). HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXPECT DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, AND IFR RESTRICTIONS, ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY AFTER 0Z AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN COLD ADVECTION, AS IFR CONTINUES. THESE
REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
LIKELY INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS LIKELY WITHIN
SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS WELL IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
15 TO 25 KNOT WIND GUSTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NE OF THE AREA, AND WIND BACKS TO
THE SW ENDING THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. PATCHY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION, BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS VFR FOR THURSDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR PAZ074-076.
OH...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
SYNOPSIS...SHALLENBERGER
NEAR TERM...SHALLENBERGER/88
SHORT TERM...LUPO
LONG TERM...88/LUPO
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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