052
FXUS61 KPBZ 221118
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
718 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 2 ADDED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH-WATER IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING
2) SEVERE WEATHER COULD RETURN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE WAKE OF A LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE, HEAVY RAINFALL (2 TO 4
INCHES) HAS FALLEN SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. HIGH-WATER IMPACTS MAY
CONTINUE FOR A NUMBER OF COMMUNITIES DESPITE THE LOSS OF RAIN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THAT THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AND YOUGHIOGHENY RIVER BASIN
WERE SPARE INTENSITY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
PITTSBURGH WILL BE IMPACTED (FLOODING AT THE MON WHARF PARKING
LOT) IS CONSIDERED LOW.
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS CONSIDERED VERY LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE WEST COAST TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRANSPORTS WARM,
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS (MCSS) MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST BEFORE TRACKING INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS,
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORNADOES, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES A 5-30%
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS
THREAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH AND THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE,
WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ANY MCSS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR, WITH LOCALIZED IFR, STRATOCU IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE. MIXING AND DRY
ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN CIGS RETURNING TO VFR LEVELS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING RIVER
VALLEY FOG.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...WM
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