199
FXUS61 KPBZ 271637
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1237 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN FIRM CONTROL OVERALL THROUGH
SATURDAY, LEADING TO ONGOING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE OF PASSING DISTURBANCES THROUGH THEN WILL
DO LITTLE TO CHANGE THIS.
A CROSSING 500MB SHORTWAVE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS, BUT MOISTURE LEVELS, PARTICULARLY IN THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER, REMAIN TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
CROSSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING IS
LIKEWISE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE DRY. HOWEVER, MODEL BLENDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY SMALL (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN NORTH OF I-80, WHICH COULD BE REALIZED IF ENOUGH
LAKE ERIE MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED.
RAIN CHANCES FINALLY RETURN TO THE FORECAST IN EARNEST STARTING
SUNDAY, AS A SOUTHERN PLAINS DISTURBANCE TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAIN LOW,
AS CHANCES OF A HALF-INCH OF RAIN OR MORE OVER ANY 48-HOUR
PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAIN BELOW 50 PERCENT. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER CLOSED 500MB LOW COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON IF/HOW THIS
LOW DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES, A WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS A
POSSIBILITY AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR UNDER PATCHY CIRRUS STARTS THE TAF PERIOD.
THICKER CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT FROM UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS WILL ENSUE. THICK CLOUD COVER PRECLUDES WIDESPREAD
FOG CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES BEGIN TO APPRECIABLY
CLEAR BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A PASSING COLD
FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY RETURN CIG RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK... SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH LARGE-SCALE DISTURBANCE; VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CL
AVIATION...AK
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