947
FXUS61 KPBZ 100754
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
354 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR-TO-ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, BEFORE LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
EXPECT BRIEF RIDGING TODAY WHICH WILL INCREASE UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. WIND DIRECTION WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE WEST, WITH
AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS ANTICIPATED. EFFICIENT, SMOKE FREE
HEATING AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT LATER
TODAY AND DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITIONING.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT. RESULTING
UPPER CIRRUS WILL LIKELY THICKEN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN ON THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW. CURRENT MODEL DATA SHOWS THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PITTSBURGH METRO TO BE SOMETIME
SUNDAY EVENING OR EARLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. THIS PUTS
THE PITTSBURGH AREA IN A MORE FAVORABLE REGION FOR QPF THAN
PRIOR FORECASTS. THIS BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
USING MULTI-MODEL CLUSTERING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
UPPER LOW WILL HANG AROUND EASTERN MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINTAINING INTERMITTENT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG PASSING SHORTWAVES IN MAINTAINED
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. ENSEMBLES ARE DIVERGENT IN HOW THE LOW
IS REINTEGRATED INTO FLOW DURING MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS PAST
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SCT CU DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. CIRRUS WILL
INCREASE BY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN PLAINS
TROUGH.
OUTLOOK
RESTRICTIONS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH A SUN NIGHT AND
MON COLD FRONT. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE/WED IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH.
CLIMATE
PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IS SIZABLE DRY STREAKS
AT SOME OBSERVING SITES. THE LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND CURRENT STREAKS ARE (AS OF JUNE 9TH):
CLIMATE SITE RECORD STREAK CURRENT STREAK
____________________________________________________________
PITTSBURGH 26 DAYS, 1874 20 DAYS
DUBOIS 23 DAYS, 1988 19 DAYS (ENDED TODAY)
ZANESVILLE 44 DAYS, 1963 20 DAYS
NEW PHILADELPHIA 27 DAYS, 1963 20 DAYS
WHEELING 27 DAYS, 1947/1884 20 DAYS
MORGANTOWN 36 DAYS, 1908 6 DAYS
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22/MILCAREK
LONG TERM...MILCAREK
AVIATION...WM
CLIMATE...MILCAREK
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