638
FXUS61 KPBZ 171736
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LINE OF STORMS, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
TUCKER TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING; DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN
2) GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON; STORMS COULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST. BY SUNSET, THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR WESTERN OHIO. GIVEN
SUFFICIENT WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (50-65KTS AT 850MB),
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHIELD. HIGH-RESOLUTION
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION BETWEEN 7PM AND
2AM, WHICH MAY INHIBIT SURFACE GUSTS UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES.THE
PRIMARY WINDOW FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TIED TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 2AM AND 7AM THURSDAY IN EASTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AT THE MOMENT, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HOLD A SLIGHT AND MARGINAL IN
PORTIONS FOR THIS NOTED THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEHIND A COLD FRONT, THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN WINDY. EVEN AS RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE, EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WIND GUSTS
OF 40-45MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY. PROBABILITY OF 50MPH GUSTS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT IS ABOVE 70% IN THE RIDGES OF WEST VIRGINIA.
THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7AM TO 6PM THURSDAY
FOR EASTERN TUCKER. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY LATER IN THE EVENING.
DEPENDING ON THE PRECISE POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT RELATIVE
TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED
THIS REGION UNDER MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DECREASES AFTER 4PM
THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW INSTANCES OF MVFR CIGS EARLIER, THE
DAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT
THE MCS OUT WEST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA AND ZZV BY 00Z TO 02Z AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE
OTHER TERMINALS IMPACTING THE BVI, HLG, PIT, AND AGC TERMINALS
BY THE 03Z TO 05Z TIMEFRAME. THE LAST TERMINAL TO IMPACT WILL BE
MGW ARRIVING BY 07Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME. TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE
STILL A BIT LOW CONFIDENCE SO THE PROB30 WAS USED FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z TOMORROW WITH
LEFT OVER LOW CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REDEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON,
SOUTH OF A ZZV-LBE LINE AS THE LOW'S COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION, STRONG WSW WIND COULD GUST FROM
30-40 KT THROUGH THE DAY AS THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.
DIMINISHING WIND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN RETURNING THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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