223
FXUS61 KPBZ 210159
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
959 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER LATER INTO THE NIGHT. A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE
STILL ON SOAKING RAINFALL ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY EVENING
2) MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A SOAKING RAINFALL, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT OF FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS IS STRADDLING THE AREA
FROM CARROLTON OH TO NEAR KLBE. ELEVATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, WHICH IS
FOSTERING ASCENT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE REMAINING BUOYANCY.
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NRN WV, SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE, BUT SHOULD
WANE OVER A SHORTER TIME FRAME AS CONTINUED STRONG FOCUS FOR
ASCENT IS LACKING IN THIS AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REACHES THE CWA AROUND 00Z MONDAY,
AFTER WHICH MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE RIDING UP THE OHIO VALLEY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER LIKELY SURGES INTO THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE
BY MONDAY, WHICH REACHES THE 90TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY. THIS, COUPLED WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION, SUGGESTS ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY PERIOD.
THE NBM PROBS FOR RAINFALL SHOW GREATER THAN 80% FOR 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE PROBS
FOR 1.5 INCHES HAVE GONE DOWN A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN WITH
ROUGHLY 40% TO 50% WITH 2 INCHES SHOWING 20% TO 30%. THIS SLIGHT
DECREASE DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY SOUTHERN TRACK ALIGNS WITH THE
SLIGHT BEING PULLED OUT OF THE AREA AND THUS THE AREA IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY. IT WILL
DEPEND ON TRAINING STORMS AND HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED FOR A POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT.
THE OTHER IMPACT FOR MONDAY WILL BE A SEVERE POTENTIAL AS A
MARGINAL OUTLOOK WAS INTRODUCED FOR WIND GUSTS. AS THE BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH, THE AFTERNOON HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER, MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER COULD SABOTAGE THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
CONSIDERING THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS THAT REMAIN, ONLY
LBE, MGW, AND DUJ HAVE A SHOWER MENTION. ONCE SKIES CLEAR AND
WIND GUSTS DIMINISH, SOME LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY,
MGW/LBE AND FKL/DUJ HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS BUT, DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE, THE RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF.
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, SKIES WILL REMAIN SCT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN BKN CEILINGS MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
SYSTEM. CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
PROBABILITIES FAVOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS (LOW PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORMS) RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS AS A DEEPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW COMBO TRAVELS
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRAMAR/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...34/LUPO
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