412
FXUS61 KPBZ 120723
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
323 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN EASTERN OHIO; ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM FROM OUTFLOW INTERACTION WITH A DECAYING MCS
2) SMALL WINDOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON;
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH
3) QUIET WEATHER SATURDAY, STRONG CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DECAYING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) MAY PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL GUSTY, SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY BEFORE 6AM. WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
WEAKENING CONVECTION AS RESIDUAL UPDRAFTS INTERACT WITH A LAYER
OF DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENT ON LOW-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
AS THE MCS OUTFLOW PROGRESSES EASTERN INTO NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED AND
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A SUBTLE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE RIDGES. WITH DCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN
900J/KG TO 1200J/KG ISOLATED STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1PM AND 6PM TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A MARGINAL
AND SLIGHT RISK ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, GENERALLY
ALIGNED WITH WHERE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE PLACES THE COLD
FRONT DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. JOINT PROBABILITIES FROM THE
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATE A 30-50% CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION (DEFINED AS AT LEAST 500J/KG AND 30KTS OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR) DEVELOPING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH. THE
ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT PERIODS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL UP TO A QUARTER IN SIZE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE RAPIDLY BETWEEN
6PM AND 8PM IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS DEW POINTS FALL AND
DRIER MID-LVL AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
QUIETER WEATHER TO THE REGION.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WITHIN
ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH MACHINE-LEARING GUIDANCE AND
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) INDICATE A 5-15% CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN PORTIONS OF THE REGION, MAIN
IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, WHICH WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A DECAYING MESOSCALE CONVECTION SYSTEM (MCS) FROM THE WEST MAY
ENHANCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
OUTFLOW INTERACTION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN WEAK
BOUNDARY LIFT. PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING WITH
AREAS OF CLEARING. DUJ WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LIFR TO IFR
STRATUS THROUGH 12Z WITH STAGNANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
A PASSING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY STIR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF PIT BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z; MGW/LBE HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY -TSRA AND BRIEF LOW VIS FROM
RAIN SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
DRY ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
FAVORS VFR FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION
CHANCE ARRIVES WITH SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT SUNDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...MILCAREK/HEFFERAN
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