260
FXUS61 KPBZ 171110
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
710 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING. OTHERWISE, NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CLEARING TODAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND. FREEZE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.
2) DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. A BAND
OF SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTH BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE
SHOULD BECOME SHALLOW BY MORNING, WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
PRECIP.
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT, WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD RESULT IN BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. NUDGED GUIDANCE TOWARD THE COLDER SOLUTIONS WITH THESE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A CLOSED LOW SHOULD REMAIN OFF OF THE
MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK,
WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS. A RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
BUILD IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION, AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISE. READINGS BY MID TO LATE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VERY NARROW LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS FEATURING DALLIANCES WITH
MVFR CIGS WILL PETER OUT THROUGH 16Z AS THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY ADVECTION WRING THEM OUT. LINGERING BROKEN TO
SCATTERED 2-5KFT STRATOCUMULUS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD SUCH AS MUCH OF THE REGION IS
CLOUD FREE BY 00Z (AT MINIMUM, IF NOT SOONER).
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY STEAM FOG (DEVELOP UNDER CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WIND, AND LARGE AIR/WATER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES) IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z SUNDAY BUT PROBABILITIES OF TERMINAL IMPACT
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR MENTION.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-
021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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