434
FXUS61 KPBZ 070634
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
234 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DECREASED SOME FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MORNING FOG, THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
2) MORE LIMITED CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
3) UNSETTLED PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLOOD POTENTIAL
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS
MIXING BEGINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH,
ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO
BE LOWER TODAY THAN ON RECENT DAYS, LOWERING INTO THE 1.4 TO 1.6
INCH RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SOME
DRY ADVECTION ALOFT. CURRENT PROBABILITIES KEEP THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA,
WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FROM WPC. AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR TODAY WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT
OF ANY CONVECTION TODAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW TODAY AS WELL.
OVERALL FLOW IS WEAK, THOUGH WITH DRY AIR ALOFT, GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH FLAT RIDGING AND A POSSIBLE CAP ALOFT. EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS,
THOUGH OUTFLOWS AND LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN
A SHOWER OR STORM OUTSIDE OF THE TERRAIN AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY, CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP PERIODIC
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE LATEST ML GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MORE FAVORABLE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THE
THURSDAY SHORTWAVE, ESPECIALLY IF SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOME MODELS INDICATE.
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY AND SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES DUE
TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY MORNING, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITION TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AS MIXING BEGINS.
A CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR MOST AIRPORTS EAST OF ZZV, WITH A TEMPO
FOR DUJ AND MGW WHERE HIGHER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED (NEAR AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH.)
CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE BY THIS EVENING, WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING. EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
OUTLOOK...
AFTER MORNING FOG AND STRATUS, ISOLATED CONVECTION AND
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. RESTRICTION AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
APPROACHING TROUGH.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM
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