688
FXUS61 KPBZ 181855
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
155 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY. 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW SHOWERS AND A POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALL THREAT ON MONDAY
2) PROLONGED COLD SNAP AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TUESDAY
MORNING
3) WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY WITH
GUSTY TO STRONG WIND
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... SNOW SHOWERS AND A POTENTIAL SNOW SQUALL THREAT
ON MONDAY
A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE HI RES MODELS
INDICATING AROUND 50 J/KG TO NEAR 100 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
NORTH OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY. THAT SAID, THERE STANDS TO BE A SMALL
SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 50 J/KG IN THE NBM IS IN THE
NORTHERN AREA WHERE 40% TO 50% PROBS ARE PRESENT. THUS, WHERE
THESE AREAS SET UP, A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2... PROLONGED COLD SNAP AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS TUESDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR BEHIND YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE/UPPER WAVE ON
MONDAY WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING HAVE AN 80-100% CHANCE OF BEING
BELOW 10 DEGREES, WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST PA AT A 75% CHANCE
OF SUB- ZERO TEMPERATURES. COMBINED WITH LINGERING BREEZY
CONDITIONS, BELOW- ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED REGION-WIDE FOR
MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -5 TO -20F RANGE.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AREAWIDE, AND POSSIBILITY FOR EXTREME COLD WARNING IN
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BRIEFLY
MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3... WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
MONDAY WITH GUSTY TO STRONG WIND
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AMID DEEPER DAYTIME MIXING WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 35-45 MPH ON MONDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH (OR EXCEED IN
EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY) WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
1) SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR ENDING BY MID AFTERNOON
2) VFR THIS EVENING
3) RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW RETURN OVERNIGHT
4) GUSTY WIND ON MONDAY
------------------------------------------------------------
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
A MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MVFR TO IFR IN SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SNOW SHOULD
TRANSITION INTO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING IN COLD ADVECTION.
MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH BRIEF IFR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE MONDAY AFTER
FROPA, WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING. EXPECT WSW
GUSTS TO 30KT THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
CIG RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WSW WIND ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING IN COLD WRLY FLOW. VFR RETURNS TUESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGHING. CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY UNDER COLD NW FLOW AND
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-073-074-076>078.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050.
WV...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
WVZ001-002-510>514.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...WM
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