117
FXUS61 KPBZ 092332
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
732 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL MESSAGING OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REMAINS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OUTSIDE OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, DRY WEATHER PERSISTS AS TEMPERATURE APPROACHES NEAR
RECORD LEVELS NEXT WEEK.
2) FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SHOWERS MAY APPROACH THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS WHILE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE HEADS TOWARD
EASTERN CANADA. AN ENSUING SHORTWAVE WILL REIGNITE SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, CREATE MORE WIDESPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
MEAN SBCAPE VALUES FOR EACH PERIOD NEVER EXCEEDS 200 J/KG
SUGGESTS LITTLE LIGHTNING THREAT, LET ALONE SEVERE.
OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHEAST RIDGING REESTABLISHES ITSELF SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
A HIGH PROBABILITY (80-90% FOR MOST LOCATIONS) OF
REACHING/EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES F BY TUESDAY, NEARLY 20 DEGREES
ABOVE DAILY AVERAGES. IF ENSEMBLE MODELS TRENDS TOWARD A
WARMER/DRIER SCENARIO WITH A STRONGER RIDGE (VERSUS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND WETTER SCENARIO IF THE RIDGE IS WEAKER), RECORD MAX
TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED/BROKEN (~30-60% PROBABILITY OF
RECORDS SET) ALONG WITH LIKELY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
(~70-90% PROBABILITY OF RECORDS SET).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA ALREADY HAS MANY LOCATIONS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S TO UPPER 20S THAT, COMBINED WITH BREEZY
WIND, IS CREATING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AN SPS WAS
ISSUED FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE AREAS TODAY WHERE CONDITIONS
APPROACH (BUT FALL SHORT) FOR RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. FIRE
WEATHER RISKS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON OF FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT DUE TO
MINIMIZED MOIST ADVECTION WHILE TEMPERATURE EXCEEDS DAILY
AVERAGES.
COOLER TEMPERATURE AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS (NOT TO MENTION, RAIN)
EASE CONCERNS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. BUT RESUMPTION OF A
SIMILAR WEAK FLOW, BUILDING RIDGE THAT SEES DRY AIR MIX TO THE
SURFACE COULD CREATE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOW LONG THEY PERSIST WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
WHERE THE AXIS OF MOISTURE/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS WITH RESPECT
TO THE RIDGE TOP AND DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURNS IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PASSING SHOWER/STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE AT FKL THROUGH 04Z. THE
PRECIP LIFTS NORTH JUST A TAD BEFORE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GET TO
DUJ.
A FEW SMALL INSTANCES OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT MAINLY OVER
FKL AND DUJ THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY, WESTERLY WIND IS
EXPECTED TO FRESHEN UP WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS. A SINKING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (18Z-20Z). THIS IS LIKELY TO
BRING MVFR CEILINGS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS FAVORED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER/LUPO
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