424
FXUS61 KPBZ 280030 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
830 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG POTENTIAL IS INCREASING TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS DIMINISHING TONIGHT, WITH FOG DEVELOPING
2) DRIER BUT STILL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY, BUT NO
FLOODING FORECAST.
3) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HEAT WAVE /THREE STRAIGHT DAYS ABOVE
90F/ OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
MAJOR A HEAT RISK AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PA
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THOUGH THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW OVERNIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WAS OCCURING ACROSS OH AND NW
PA. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO
QUICKLY FILL IN, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY CLEARING OCCURS. INCREASED
THE FOG COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
STRATUS DEVELOPS (WHICH WOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE DENSE FOG) A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY FOR
A PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AS IT
MOVES INTO A BUILDING RIDGE MONDAY. UNTIL THEN, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASON- DIXON LINE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND NOT TRAIN OVER AN AREA
REQUIRING A FLOOD WATCH. STORM MOTION WON'T BE IDEAL /10 -
15KNOTS/, SO LOCALIZED FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN
WEST VIRGINIA. INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE STORY OF NEXT WEEK IS THE HOT WEATHER AREAWIDE. A MID LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR SO FAR, NOT RECORD
BREAKING WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF BREAKING WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AT
SEVERAL SITES WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY. THE HOTTEST WEATHER WILL BE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER 90S WILL
BE COMMON. THE LATTER MORE SO IN URBAN AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S (STILL A DEBATE IF WE GET THIS HIGH)
PUSHES HEAT INDEX VALUES TO THE CENTURY MARK AND BEYOND TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. INTERESTING TIDBIT, THE COMBINATION OF 95 DEGREE AIR
TEMPERATURE AND 75 DEGREE DEWPOINT OR GREATER HAS ONLY HAPPENED
FOUR TIMES SINCE 1952 AT PITTSBURGH, SO GETTING THIS HUMID IS A
LOW CHANCE HISTORICALLY.
HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED NEXT WEEK FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
REMEMBER A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100-104F AND A EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS ISSUED FOR HEAT
INDEX VALUES 105F AND GREATER. IN ADDITION, HEAT RISK WILL BE IN
THE MAJOR CATEGORY /LEVEL 3 OF OUR 4/ WITH AN EXTREME HEAT RISK
/LEVEL 4 OUT OF 4/ FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SINCE 2005, PITTSBURGH HAS NOT VERIFIED AN
EXTREME HEAT RISK, SO WE WILL SEE IF THE DEWPOINT FORECAST
TRENDS A SMIDGE LOWER, WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THIS INDEX.
ANOTHER REFRESHER, NWS HEAT RISK IS A COLOR- NUMERIC BASED
INDEX THAT USES HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND CDC HEAT-
HEALTH DATA TO IDENTIFY POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT.
IT IS ALSO GOOD TO POINT OUT THAT A BIG DRIVER OF IMPACTS TO
PEOPLE IN HEAT WAVES ARE THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS IS
BECAUSE PEOPLE CAN'T COOL OFF AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT
AIR CONDITIONERS. IF YOU HAVE FRIENDS / FAMILY THAT ARE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ELDERLY, OR WITHOUT AC, PLEASE CHECK ON THEM
NEXT WEEK.
MACHINE LEARNING MODELS ARE ALL POINTING TO AN UPTICK IN SEVERE
WEATHER FRIDAY - SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. GRANTED THIS IS FAR
DOWN THE ROAD, BUT WHEN WE HAVE A HEAT WAVE, TYPICALLY THERE IS
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT ENDS IT WITH THE RIDGE
FLATTENING AND THE WESTERLIES DRIVING A WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH.
AS OF NOW, THE PROBABILITIES ARE LARGELY IN THE 15%-30%, A FEW
OF THE WORSE CASE SCENARIOS ARE ABOVE 50%, BUT THOSE TYPICALLY
RUN HOT /PUN VERY MUCH INTENDED/.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STAGNANT FRONTAL ZONE IS DRAPED FROM NEAR LBE-PIT-HLG-ZZV,
WITH MEAGER CONVERGENCE WITHIN THIS ZONE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS. DEEP SATURATION, MODEST CAPE AND WLY STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SHOWERS THRU/PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL AXIS
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET, WHEN COVERAGE OUGHT TO WANE. GIVEN THE
ANEMIC CAPE PROFILE AND ITS CONCENTRATION BELOW 0C ALTITUDE,
LIGHTNING DOES NOT POSE A THREAT, AND TS WAS NOT INCLUDED AT
TERMINALS. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF WARM-RAIN PROCESSES WITHIN THE
UPDRAFTS, MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORE VIGOROUS
CELLS.
MVFR-IFR CIGS AT PRESENT ARE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS, AND ONLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE SHOWERS. MINIMAL
HEATING OF THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS DURING THE DAY, WITH
CONTINUED NEAR-SATURATION ONCE THE SHOWERS WANE, SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG SHORTLY INTO THE TAF PERIOD (LIKELY BY
0300-0500 UTC). DESPITE THE STRATUS DECK, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
COOLING FOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO TAKE HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AT LEAST LOCALLY NEAR
MOST TERMINALS AND WIDESPREAD LIFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE
BEFORE SUNRISE.
FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THE MORNING, BUT EVENTUALLY
(1300-1500 UTC TIME-RANGE) CIGS WILL COME TO DOMINATE THE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, RISING INTO THE IFR TO MVFR CATEGORY BY
1600 UTC. THERE LIKELY WILL BE RAPID CHANGES IN THE VSBY/CIGS AS
THE FOG LIFTS, SO TRENDS ARE DEPICTED WITH SOME CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE TIMING OF THESE IMPROVEMENTS.
CAMS SEEM RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VERY MOIST BUOYANT AIRMASS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF PIT/AGC/HLG/BVI. THIS
POSSIBILITY IS COVERED WITH PROB30 GROUPS AFTER 1900 UTC,
PENDING BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF IMPORTANT MESOSCALE
FEATURES.
FOG MAY RESULT AGAIN SUN NIGHT, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY STORMS
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MON, LEADING TO HOTTER
TEMPERATURE AND WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO BE A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SOME GUIDANCE THAT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LINGER NEXT WEEK, THOUGH COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED AND
THEREFORE THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS TO AREA TERMINALS REMAINS
LOW (ROUGHLY 10%).
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 93/1964
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 72 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 71 RECORD: 74/1933
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 72 RECORD: 74/1934
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 96/1991
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
WHEELING WV FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 75/1901
MORGANTOWN WV FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 71/2014
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/1913
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
NEW PHILADELPHIA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 95/1966
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 97/1931
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
WHEELING WV FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 73/2018
MORGANTOWN WV FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 73/2018
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1903
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 71/1903
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 77/1903
MORGANTOWN WV FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 77 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1898
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 78/1935
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM/MCMULLEN
AVIATION...CERMAK/KRAMAR
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