789
FXUS61 KPBZ 081126
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
726 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PASSING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WILL RETURN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
2) AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN COULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TREND ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WINDS
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH TRACKING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ALLOW MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE FLUX IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER-60S/LOW-70S) AND SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER-80S,
HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN A FEW AREAS AND CAUSE HEAT STRESS TO LOCAL
COMMUNITIES.
BETWEEN 7PM TO 9PM WEDNESDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS STILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5%-15%. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY MAY
LIMITED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.
THE PROLONGED PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ON THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN ISOLATED FLOODING NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS. SOME
AREAS COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THIS
PERIOD.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE EXIT OF THE COLD
FRONT AND A BUILDING RIDGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MACHINE-LEARNING MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING, FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, OUR LARGE-SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. AS A RESULT, THIS
WILL ALLOW DISTURBANCES FORMING UPSTREAM (NEAR THE ROCKIES) TO
TRACK INTO OUR AREA. THIS PATTERN COULD CREATE A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT AND/OR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OUTSIDE OF PATCHY EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO AREA TERMINALS, VFR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. VFR RETURNS
FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, BEFORE A CROSSING DISTURBANCE BRING
A LOW CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS ON SATURDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...CERMAK
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