379
FXUS61 KPBZ 271148
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
748 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN THE IMPACTS OF A HEAT RISK THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES SATURDAY THAT COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A HEAT RISK AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE COMING DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. A
STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE MAINLY I-70 WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE TIMING AND AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE MORE
FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE DAYS
HEATING. THUS, THE AREA MENTIONED WILL REMAIN UNDER A FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING. WHILE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL FLUCTUATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME, THE FOCUS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EVENING
INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS INTO THE EARLY WEEK, WITH A STRONG MID-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING AND SHUNTING HOT AIR INTO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY REGION.
THRU THE WEEK, TEMPS WILL CLIMB STEADILY INTO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S, WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF MAXT REACHING MID 90S.
FORECAST SOLUTIONS ARE CLUSTERED AROUND TWO KEY SCENARIOS:
1) HOTTER AND DRIER: TEMPS MAY REACH MID 90S, BUT DEWPOINTS MIX
OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S, THUS REDUCING APPARENTT MODESTLY. IN
THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ASSERTS ITSELF SUFFICIENTLY
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
2) LESS HOT AND STORMIER: TEMPS MAY REACH UPPER 80S, BUT
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, APPARENTT MAY BE
HIGHER AND POSE SOME HEAT IMPACT. BUT THE TEMP CEILING WILL BE
LIMITED BY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURSTS AS BUOYANCY WOULD
BE HIGH AND SHEAR WOULD BE WEAK.
SOME COMBINATION OF BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS COULD PLAY OUT OVER
THE WEEK LEADING UP TO AND INCLUDING JULY 4, SO THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NEED TO MONITOR DAILY FORECASTS AS THE
WEEK GOES ON FOR LOCALIZED UPDATES ON STORM AND HEAT POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BRINGING A MIX OF MVFR DOWN TO IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING, WITH
THE LOWEST RESTRICTIONS TYPICALLY OCCURRING DURING AND
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING PERIODS OF RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO INCREASING
WITH BETTER DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AFTER 18Z. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TAPERS AFTER SUNSET BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BY
MONDAY, LEADING TO RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THE CURRENT TREND FOR A DRIER FORECAST STILL HOLDS, THERE
IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SUGGEST DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LINGER THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, ALBEIT WITH AN ISOLATED COVERAGE
AND THUS A LOW PROBABILITY (MAYBE 10-20% AT BEST) OF IMPACTS TO
AREA TERMINALS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ031.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ057>059-068-069.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ004-012-021-509-510.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...CERMAK
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