401
FXUS61 KPBZ 160000
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
800 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LOW BUT
NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG WIND GUSTS TODAY
2) COLD FRONT RETURNS RAIN, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND SNOW
MONDAY
3) COLDER CONDITIONS TUESDAY, GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL BRING ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45-50MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE
EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE LOW-70S AND MIXING
OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE SURFACE, MINOR IMPACTS COULD BE
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDED DOWNED TREES, LOOSENING OF SHINGLES,
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
ALONG LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NEAR I-80 DUE TO THE PROBABILITY OF
46MPH TO 50MPH GUSTS IS ELEVATED (ABOVE 60%). HOWEVER, WE CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER GUSTS IN THE REGION ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD RAIN SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALL
EXPECTED. ON MONDAY, GUSTY SHOWERS ARE HIGHLY CONFIDENT FOR
EASTERN OHIO BETWEEN 6AM AND 8AM. THE PITTSBURGH METRO AREA WILL
SEE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 9AM AND 11AM ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH ACCUMULATION OF ONLY
0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES, BECAUSE FAST-MOVING DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE
RAINFALL RATES.
MONDAY AFTERNOON PRESENTS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP, PRIMARILY BETWEEN 12PM AND 3PM EAST
OF PITTSBURGH. ALTHOUGH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT FROM THE SOUTH, THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY
A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING. IF ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS DO FORM, THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND ADVANCE EAST INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
QUICKLY; DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
30S LATE MONDAY. RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE OVER INTO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOLLOWED BY SNOW UNDER COLD ADVECTION. SNOW
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH A CROSSING UPPER TROUGH,
AND LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IN COLD W-NW FLOW. ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL FOR MOST AREAS, WITH PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH
OR TWO HIGHEST NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES (40-50%). THE
PROBABILITY OF REACH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE
RIDGES IS LESS THAN 30%.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS LIKELY LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -15C TO -17C.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, RANGING BETWEEN 5F TO 18F. PROBABILITY OF WIND CHILL
VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 10F IS ELEVATED (60-75%) ALONG THE RIDGES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY TO
FRIDAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO AN EXITING TROUGH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR WEATHER
IMPACTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD IS CONSIDERED LOW.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY, WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AND RESULTING IN POSSIBLE
IFR CONDITIONS. LATEST ANALOGS SUGGEST A NEAR 100% PROBABILITY
OF IFR KPIT AND NORTH..
BEFORE THEN, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
DROPPING TO MVFR WITH THE MENTIONED CROSSING LOW PRESSURE.
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS 100% PROBABILITIES OF VFR
OVERNIGHT, GOING TO 80-100% MVFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH BEST
CHANCES OF IFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING, AS WIND VEERS WESTERLY AND CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE.
OUTLOOK...
POST- FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016-
073>078.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...HEFFERAN
AVIATION...RACKLEY/SHALLENBERGER/88
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