138
FXUS61 KPBZ 281138
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
738 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER BUT STILL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY, BUT NO
FLOODING FORECAST.
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HEAT WAVE /THREE STRAIGHT DAYS ABOVE
90F/ OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
MAJOR A HEAT RISK AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH A BIT DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVERHEAD. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DAY TIME HEATING. WHILE THE THREAT
OF FLOODING HAS GONE DOWN, THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LIKE
THE WAY THE DIURNAL TREND HAS GONE, THE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND DISSIPATE BY 00Z.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THE STORY OF NEXT WEEK IS THE HOT WEATHER
AREAWIDE. A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE YEAR
SO FAR, NOT RECORD BREAKING WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES, BUT A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BREAKING WARM OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES AT SEVERAL SITES WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY. THE
HOTTEST WEATHER WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE WIDESPREAD
MID AND UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON. THE LATTER MORE SO IN URBAN
AREAS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S (STILL A
DEBATE IF WE GET THIS HIGH) PUSHES HEAT INDEX VALUES TO THE
CENTURY MARK AND BEYOND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE REGION OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. INTERESTING TIDBIT, THE
COMBINATION OF 95 DEGREE AIR TEMPERATURE AND 75 DEGREE DEWPOINT
OR GREATER HAS ONLY HAPPENED FOUR TIMES SINCE 1952 AT
PITTSBURGH, SO GETTING THIS HUMID IS A LOW CHANCE HISTORICALLY.
HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED NEXT WEEK FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
REMEMBER A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100-104F AND A EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS ISSUED FOR HEAT
INDEX VALUES 105F AND GREATER. IN ADDITION, HEAT RISK WILL BE IN
THE MAJOR CATEGORY /LEVEL 3 OF OUR 4/ WITH AN EXTREME HEAT RISK
/LEVEL 4 OUT OF 4/ FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SINCE 2005, PITTSBURGH HAS NOT VERIFIED AN
EXTREME HEAT RISK, SO WE WILL SEE IF THE DEWPOINT FORECAST
TRENDS A SMIDGE LOWER, WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THIS INDEX.
ANOTHER REFRESHER, NWS HEAT RISK IS A COLOR- NUMERIC BASED
INDEX THAT USES HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER, CLIMATE, AND CDC HEAT-
HEALTH DATA TO IDENTIFY POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT.
IT IS ALSO GOOD TO POINT OUT THAT A BIG DRIVER OF IMPACTS TO
PEOPLE IN HEAT WAVES ARE THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS IS
BECAUSE PEOPLE CAN'T COOL OFF AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT
AIR CONDITIONERS. IF YOU HAVE FRIENDS / FAMILY THAT ARE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ELDERLY, OR WITHOUT AC, PLEASE CHECK ON THEM
NEXT WEEK.
MACHINE LEARNING MODELS ARE ALL POINTING TO AN UPTICK IN SEVERE
WEATHER FRIDAY - SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION. GRANTED THIS IS FAR
DOWN THE ROAD, BUT WHEN WE HAVE A HEAT WAVE, TYPICALLY THERE IS
A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER THAT ENDS IT WITH THE RIDGE
FLATTENING AND THE WESTERLIES DRIVING A WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH.
AS OF NOW, THE PROBABILITIES ARE LARGELY IN THE 15%-30%, A FEW
OF THE WORSE CASE SCENARIOS ARE ABOVE 50%, BUT THOSE TYPICALLY
RUN HOT /PUN VERY MUCH INTENDED/.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OUR STAGNANT, MOIST AIRMASS IS LEADING TO PLENTY OF FOG, MOST
OF IT DENSE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. AS SUCH MANY PORTS
ARE BEGINNING THE TAF PERIOD AT OR BELOW MINIMUMS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN THIS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY MID-MORNING BUT THE
CLIMB OUT OF LIFR COULD BE A SLOW ONE WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. FURTHER NORTH, FKL AND DUJ FIND THEMSELVES IN A LOW
STRATUS REGIME INSTEAD OF FOG AND THEREFORE MAY HAVE AN EASIER
LIFT THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MORE MEANINGFULLY BREAK BY LATE
MORNING INTO MIDDAY AS DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN
TO SETUP. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO BE MOST LIKELY FROM
PIT ON SOUTH AND COULD BE RATHER SLOW MOVING IN NATURE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY. AREAS THAT SEE
RENEWED RAINFALL LIKELY GREATLY INCREASE THEIR CHANCE FOR FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT CHANCES OF FOG IMPACTS LOOK
PROBABLE FOR MANY PORTS AGAIN ALREADY.
OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MON, LEADING
TO HOTTER TEMPERATURE AND WHAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO BE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER NEXT WEEK, THOUGH COVERAGE WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND THEREFORE THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS TO AREA
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW (ROUGHLY 10%).
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 93/1964
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 06/30 (TUE):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 72 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 71 RECORD: 74/1933
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 72 RECORD: 74/1934
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 96/1991
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/01 (WED):
WHEELING WV FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 75/1901
MORGANTOWN WV FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 71/2014
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 73/1913
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
NEW PHILADELPHIA FORECAST: 96 RECORD: 95/1966
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 95 RECORD: 97/1931
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/02 (THU):
WHEELING WV FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 73/2018
MORGANTOWN WV FORECAST: 74 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 73/2018
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1903
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 71/1903
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR 07/03 (FRI):
WHEELING WV FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 77/1903
MORGANTOWN WV FORECAST: 75 RECORD: 74/1901
NEW PHILADELPHIA OH FORECAST: 77 RECORD: 71/1991
PITTSBURGH PA FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 76/1898
ZANESVILLE OH FORECAST: 76 RECORD: 78/1935
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AK
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