830
FXUS61 KPBZ 250021
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
821 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE OR MESSAGING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WITH DRY WEATHER HIGHLY LIKELY UNTIL
AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
KEEN READERS MAY NOTE THE LACK OF NOTABLY DIFFERENT DISCUSSIONS
RECENTLY AND THIS LATEST DISCUSSION OFFERS LITTLE TO CHANGE THAT
TREND. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
ALOFT OVER A MULTI-DAY PERIOD (WITH VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE) MEANS
THE WEATHER STORY IS A BIT MONOTONOUS. SO CONTINUE TO ENJOY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE (WITH LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS), LIGHT
WINDS, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
MORE VARIANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM ENSEMBLE MODELS
STARTING AROUND THURSDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING MONDAY (NOVEMBER
2ND) SUGGESTS SOME TOPICS OF DISCUSSION BUT WITH LITTLE
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. THIS INCLUDES WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT
NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING (OFFERING 30%
OR LESS PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN MAINLY IN NW PA);
UNLIKELY WAVES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY (OFFERING LESS THAN 20%
MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABILITIES); AND THE POTENTIAL STRONG TROUGH
PASSAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN BUT TIMING
OF ITS ARRIVAL HAS SLOWLY BE INCHING LATER). CLARITY WILL ARRIVE
EVENTUALLY BUT FOR NOW, NOTHING MERITS FURTHER DISCUSSION.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT
E/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY
IMPACT ISOLATED SITES WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY BETWEEN 11Z
AND 13Z SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK... OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS
HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...34/CL
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