729
FXUS61 KPBZ 140713
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
313 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECASTS FOR THE HEAT AND POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES
REMAINED LARGELY IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
TODAY. STORMS TODAY LOOK TO POSE A PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND
THREAT, POSSIBLY IN TWO SEPARATE WAVES. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-70 ON WEDNESDAY
FOR WHAT COULD BE MORE OF AN ALL HAZARDS SEVERE WEATHER DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. DAILY RECORD HIGH
MAX AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED AND POSSIBLY
BROKEN, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
2) INCREASING DAILY STORM CHANCES THIS WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE
MULTI- DAY MCS EVENT. AREAWIDE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY.
3) SEVERE RISK CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER NORTH OF I-70 AND MARGINAL RISK BETWEEN I-68 AND I-70.
STORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN GULF
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. AT ITS
STRONGEST, THE RIDGE WILL NEAR 590DAM (JUST OVER 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THIS ABNORMALLY
STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABNORMALLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES (OVER 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
SATURDAY. OUR LOCATION ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COMING
DAYS. LOCALLY, HEAT LOOKS TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY, WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS HITTING 580DAM OVER THE CITY AND WIDESPREAD 850MB
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 14-16C, SUGGESTING THAT UNHINDERED MIXING
WOULD SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE 80S.
PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 80 DEGREES REMAIN NEAR
AND OVER 60% FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY-
THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE HEATING
MAY BE INTERRUPTED BY A RAIN-LADEN COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS COULD FINALLY HELP SHAKE UP THE PATTERN BEFORE
MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE ANOTHER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
RECORD HIGH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
TIED OR SET AT SEVERAL SITES ACROSS OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DAILY RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE ONLY
THING POSSIBLY KEEPING A LID ON RECORD CHALLENGING RUNAWAY
HEATING. THESE CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH, CLOSER TO THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AND THUS PROBABILITIES OF RECORD SETTING
HEAT GENERALLY DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EACH SITE FEATURES
AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH A >40% CHANCE TO SET A NEW RECORD HIGH
AND PHD (SHORTEST CLIMATE RECORD) FEATURES 3 DAYS WITH >70%
CHANCE. CONCURRENTLY, EACH SITE ALSO FEATURES AT LEAST 2 DAYS
WITH >50% CHANCE OF SETTING NEW RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
AND PIT FEATURES 5 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH >65% CHANCE OF DOING SO.
PIT FEATURES SEVERAL "LOW HANGING FRUIT" IN THIS CATEGORY WITH 3
SUCH DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. OUR FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY LOWS MAY BREAK THE OLD RECORD OF 58 BY A WHOPPING
8 DEGREES.
MINOR HEAT RISK CONTINUES AREAWIDE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE RETRACTING SOME ON FRIDAY. HEAT IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY BE
FELT BY THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND THOSE
WITHOUT COOLING/HYDRATION. SPECKLED MODERATE RISK AREAS CONTINUE
TO CROP UP WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY AND ARE EXPANDING IN AREA,
MAINLY IN THE OHIO AND MON RIVER VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WE ARE AT THE BEGINNING OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A MULTI-
DAY MCS EVENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS
PATTERN OWING TO OUR ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE FEELS MUCH MORE
LIKE A JUNE SETUP THAN AN APRIL ONE. WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET THE TABLE EACH AFTERNOON FOR STORMS
TO FIRE ALONG DECAYING OR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS CONVECTION AND RENEWED CONVECTION CRESTING
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE COULD PRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT STARTING THE WHOLE PROCESS AGAIN.
THIS IS THE KIND OF SETUP IN WHICH EACH DAY COULD BE AT LEAST A
MARGINAL RISK DAY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IN THE REGION IS NOT A
GUARANTEE AND MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE. THIS LOW CONFIDENCE
AND HIGH SPREAD FORECAST IS DUE TO EACH DAY BEING LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS THE NIGHT PRIOR AND MORNING OF. AS
SUCH, THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT FORECASTS TO PIN DOWN.
AN ONGOING MCS ACROSS MI AND WI WILL INFLUENCE OUR LOCAL
FORECAST TODAY AND THEN CONTINUED CONVECTION AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD IMPACT US AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME, TWO POSSIBLE SHOTS AT SEVERE
WEATHER LOOK IN PLAY FOR US TODAY:
1. THE ONGOING MCS IN WI AND MI MOVES SE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND STORMS BEGIN TO SPARK AGAIN IN A RAPIDLY IMPROVING
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
2. STORMS FIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE IN MICHIGAN, CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS
AND ADVANCE SE TOWARDS US INTO A QUICKLY WORSENING THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BOTH SCENARIOS REPRESENT POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BUT
ARE VERY DIFFERENT AND NEITHER ARE GUARANTEED TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER FOR US. THE EARLY AFTERNOON SEVERE MAY HAVE A LOWER
LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE REQUIRING SOME BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
IN PLACE, BUT WOULD HAVE A MUCH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE.
THE LATE NIGHT STORMS MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF
OCCURRENCE, BUT FEATURE A MORE MUTED LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE,
POSSIBLY WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS SURVIVING THAT LATE AND
THIS FAR SOUTHEAST.
THERMODYNAMICS ARE FAR MORE SUPPORTIVE OF EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION, WITH THE HREF MEAN CAPE FIELD SUGGESTING WE COULD
HAVE BETWEEN 750-1000 J/KG OF CAPE COLLOCATED WITH 25-35 KNOTS
OF SHEAR. A REASONABLY MORE UNSTABLE SOLUTION (POSSIBLY
REPRESENTING A SLOWER APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY), LYING CLOSER TO
THE 90TH PERCENTILE, COULD SEE CAPE VALUES CLIMB AS HIGH AS
2000 J/KG LARGELY IN OHIO. IF THEY OCCUR, STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WOULD HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE, FEATURING
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS LOOK
TO BE LOWER, WITH MORE MUTED LAPSE RATES THAN YESTERDAY'S
FORECAST CYCLE, LESS CAPE IN THE -20 TO -30C RANGE AND
RELATIVELY HIGH LCL'S. HODOGRAPHS STILL DO SHOW SOME LOW-LEVEL
CURVATURE DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL BUT IT LOOKS HIGHLY CAM
DEPENDENT.
OVERNIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT WE DECOUPLE IN A RAPIDLY
WORSENING ENVIRONMENT. SEVERAL CAMS DEPICT ONE OR MORE BOWING
SEGMENTS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MI TOWARDS US LATE TONIGHT.
THESE SEGMENTS TEND TO MOVE QUICKER THAN MODELING SUGGESTS BUT
WOULD STILL LIKELY NOT ENTER THE REGION UNTIL AFTER 2AM OR SO.
BY THIS TIME IT LOOKS UNLIKELY BUT STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM THESE STORMS.
SPC HAS EXPANDED THE DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK TO ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE RIDGING AND SHORTWAVE PATTERN AND THUS MULTI-DAY MCS EVENT
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY SEES MORE IMPRESSIVE HEATING
AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION IN CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AS SUCH, MODEL SOUNDINGS FEATURE WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF
CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR REGION
IN APRIL. THIS COMES HAND IN HAND WITH A 5-10KT INCREASE IN
SHEAR WHEN COMPARED TO TUESDAY. THESE ELEMENTS COULD ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPER CELLULAR STRUCTURES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION OR FOR A QUICK REINVIGORATION OF ANY ONGOING
MCS/MCV LEFT OVER FROM TUESDAY NIGHT. MULTI-DAY MCS PROPAGATION
FORECASTING IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE, WITH WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK LIKE THEY COULD BRING ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS, WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOWERING LCLS AND
MORE ROBUST CAPE AT THE SFC AND IN THE -20 TO -30C RANGE. SPC
HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK TO OUR REGION NORTH OF THE MASON-
DIXON LINE AND A SLIGHT RISK NORTH OF I-70 ON WEDNESDAY.
STORMS LOOK LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, BUT THE PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN A LITTLE AS A MORE MEANINGFUL SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD END THE MULTI-DAY MCS EVENT BUT
COULD BRING ITS OWN RENEWED CHANCE FOR STORMS ALONG THE DRAPING
COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
EARLIER CONVECTION NORTH OF I-80 HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED, LEAVING
MVFR CEILINGS IN THEIR WAKE. TO THE SOUTH, VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
PAST 12Z, CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF EVENTS IS
RATHER LOW, AS MESOSCALE INFLUENCES WILL PLAY A HEAVY ROLE IN
THE OUTCOME. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE UNDER
CONTINUED VFR CEILINGS AROUND 12Z, AND THESE WERE HANDLED VIA
TEMPO GROUPS. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW SOUTHWEST
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE BREAKDOWN
OF AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AND HOW WELL A WARM LAYER ALOFT SETS UP. A
WEAKER UPSTREAM RIDGE COULD ALLOW A LINE OF CONVECTION TO SET UP
TO OUR NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND SINK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A STRONGER RIDGE AND WARM LAYER ALOFT
COULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EITHER PARTIALLY OR ALMOST
TOTALLY.
IN ANY CASE, SAVE FOR ONGOING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON
NORTH OF I-80, VFR SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION. DID
CONTINUE WITH 3-HOUR PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE POTENTIAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE LINE NOTED ABOVE. AGAIN, TIMING AND EVEN OCCURRENCE
OF CONVECTION ARE LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT BEST. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY APPROACH AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE NORTH,
BUT ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THAT FOR NOW TO ALLOW
TODAY'S EVENTS TO PLAY OUT.
OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND, LARGELY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST.
CLIMATE
SEE BELOW FOR RECORD MAX HIGHS AND MAX LOWS THIS WEEK:
TUESDAY, APRIL 15TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899)
DUBOIS, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014)
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 16TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
WHEELING, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DUBOIS, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)
THURSDAY, APRIL 17TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)
FRIDAY, APRIL 18TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)
SATURDAY, APRIL 19TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AK
AVIATION...CL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page