160
FXUS61 KPBZ 051130
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
730 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRIER AIR BEGINS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA, WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
LIMIT INSTABILITY, SO THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW EXCEPT
PERHAPS AN OFF-CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS SOUTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. THE ONSET OF NORTHERLY FLOW THEN USHERS DRIER
AIR AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE NOW THROUGH MID-MORNING.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OCCURS BY THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY AND BEGIN TO USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THAT SURGE OF DRIER AIR
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES (AND
THUS, CHANCES FOR LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS) FOCUSED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
ONCE CONVECTION DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH, VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER COOLER NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
STRONGLY FAVORS VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. ANY ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE TIED TO BRIEF,
PRE-DAWN RIVER VALLEY FOG.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERMAK
AVIATION...CERMAK/FRAZIER/LUPO
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