201
FXUS61 KPBZ 121751
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
151 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE IN MESSAGING WITH LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY WARM ON TUESDAY; NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH STALLED FRONT.
2) BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, RAIN WITH LOW PROBABILITY SNOW
SHOWERS, AND GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LARGE-SCALE
DISTURBANCE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND INCREASING WARM SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
STARTING THIS EVENING (AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTH OF
MICHIGAN) FAVORS DRY WEATHER AND RISING TEMPERATURE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORTER PERIOD OF RECORD SITES LIKE NEW PHILADELPHIA
MAY SEE HIGHS THAT TIE/BREAK THE DAILY RECORD (20-30%
PROBABILITY) WHILE MOST OTHERS JUST EXPERIENCE HIGHS THAT ARE
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY AVERAGES.
SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ALONG THE NORTHERN RIDGE PERIPHERY
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING
APPROXIMATELY NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL FAVOR A TREND
TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE INTO THURSDAY WITH RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOTABLE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION STARTING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH
CLUSTER ANALYSIS FAVORING A MODESTLY STEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW SYSTEM. THE MODEL MEAN PATTERN WOULD LEND TO
RAIN WITH POTENTIALLY ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS (AND/OR GUSTY
WIND-DRIVEN SHOWERS) FRIDAY, WANING PRECIPITATION WITH BREEZY
BUT LOW-IMPACT WIND GUSTS SATURDAY, AND A LOW PROBABILITY
(~10-15% CHANCE) FOR LAKE-ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
MORNING IN NORTHWEST PA.
CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS THE WEST CENTRAL PA TO HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS FOR WIND GUSTS THAT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (46
MPH OR GREATER) WITH NON-ZERO HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS IN TERRAIN
TOPS OF EASTERN TUCKER COUNTY. HOWEVER, VARIANCE IN FRONTAL
TIMING AND DEPTH OF POST-FRONTAL MIXING ARE THE PRIMARY
INDICATORS TO MONITOR IN WHETHER WIND RISK BECOME MORE/LESS
LIKELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION OF THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE YEAR (AND
EVEN ACCUMULATION) HAVE TAKEN A HIT IN PROBABILITIES DUE TO SOME
COALESCE OF MODELED SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM THAT BOTH LIMITS THE DEGREE OF COLD ADVECTION AND
DURATION OF IDEAL LAKE-EFFECT WIND DIRECTION. SNOW BIRDS WILL
WANT TO SEE ENSEMBLE TRENDS TOWARD A DEEPER, SLOWER TROUGH
(MAINLY SUGGESTED BY A HANDFUL OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODEL
MEMBERS) IN ORDER TO RETURN HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SEEING THE
FIRST FLAKES OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR. CURRENTLY, LBE AND MGW ARE EXPECTED TO
BE THE LAST TO REACH VFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THIS EVENING.
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY FOR DUJ, OTHERWISE, MOST TERMINALS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TOMORROW, WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
KNOTS.
TOMORROW MORNING, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR STRAY SHOWERS
MAY PASS NEAR FKL/DUJ ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSING TO THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
STRAY SHOWERS MAY PASS NEAR FKL/DUJ WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A STRONG LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGER LOW SCENARIOS WITH A 60% CHANCE AT KPIT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...LUPO
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