238
FXUS61 KPBZ 141725
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
125 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WITH CONTINUED MESSAGE OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE-NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
PROMPTING SOME IMPACTS TO THE HEAT SENSITIVE POPULATION
2)THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ON SATURDAY AS
WELL AS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH UNRESOLVED DETAILS AT THIS
TIME
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ONE LAST DAY BENEATH A COLD-CORE MID-LEVEL LOW PROVIDING, ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED, A VERY DREARY FALL-LIKE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS, A
PERSISTENT BREEZE, AND DRIZZLE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MUCH MORE SUMMER-
LIKE FEEL STARTING OVER THE WEEKEND. EAST COAST RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY
IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH OUT WEST WITH TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO REACH ABOVE 586 DAM WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO 16-19C. WHILE THIS POINTS TOWARD
QUITE AN ABNORMAL WARMUP FOR MID TO LATE MAY, NBM RUNS CONTINUE
TO BIAS CORRECT MUCH TOO HIGH ON BOTH MAXT AND MINT WITH THE
SUGGESTION OF MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 70S FOR LOWS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE RULE, COMBINED WITH
1000-800 MB THICKNESS VALUES, SUGGESTS THAT A CLEAR SKY DAY WITH
~18C AT 850 MB RESULTS IN MAXTS AROUND 85F. EVALUATION OF
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE DISTRIBUTION, AS WELL AS DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE AI GUIDANCE, SUPPORTS MID TO UPPER 80S WITH THE 45-60%
OF THE DISTRIBUTION CLUSTERED BETWEEN 85-90F BOTH DAYS. A TAIL
EXTENDS INTO THE LOW 90S BOTH DAYS, LIKELY DRIVEN BY HIGHER 850
MB TEMPERATURES/500 MB HEIGHT OUTLIERS. SIMILARLY, A TAIL
EXTENDS COOLER, MORE SO ON TUESDAY, LIKELY DRIVEN BY SOLUTIONS
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. SO, WHILE LOW 90S
AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION, THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME SITS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A CONDITIONALLY COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY.
IT'S STILL WORTH NOTING THAT WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST NOTABLE
WARMUP WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL,
THOSE WHO ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT WILL WANT TO TAKE PROPER
PRECAUTION. EVEN THOSE WHO AREN'T MAY STILL FEEL EFFECTS WITH
PROLONGED PERIODS OUTDOORS AS THE BODY WORKS ON ACCUSTOMING TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS RIDGING BUILDS, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST WAVES OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST
OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND LOW PREDICTABILITY "RIDGE RIDER"/MCS
POTENTIAL. THE FIRST ONE IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
MORE STRONGLY FORCED POTENTIAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MACHINE
LEARNING SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE THREAT NOSING
IN LOCALLY ON SATURDAY, BUT THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
MAINTENANCE OF THE MCS AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCALLY, BOTH
OF WHICH REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE PATTERNS. WITH
THE FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING, FORCING WILL BE WEAKER AND MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM WHICH MAY SUPPRESS INSTABILITY.
FORCING SHOULD BE STRONGER WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO SHUNT EAST AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRAGS A
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. YET ANOTHER SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT DETAILS WILL NEED TO ALIGN TO MAXIMIZE
THE AVAILABLE ENVIRONMENT. ALL THAT SAID, CAN'T RULE OUT DAILY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ANY DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND SUBTLE CONVERGENCE
IN A WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES. RADAR INDICATES, A DEPARTURE OF THIS RAIN AND
DRIZZLE BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z FROM FOR AGC, MGW, LBE, AND DUJ.
AT THE CURRENT UPDATE, VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST PORTS AFTER
00Z, SAVE A >50% CHANCE OF MVFR OVERNIGHT FOR FKL, AND A >50% OF
IFR OVERNIGHT FOR DUJ WITH LINGER LOW MOISTURE OFF OF THE GREAT
LAKES.
OUTLOOK...
VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. RESTRICTIONS
AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS, BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MLB
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/MILCAREK
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