083
FXUS61 KPBZ 091802
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE IN THE NEAR
TERM AS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1)DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AND REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH BOTH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED, WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PASSING DISTURBANCES IN THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH LENDING TO LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE W-NW FLOW, WITH THE
FIRST POTENTIALLY ARRIVING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST CAMS SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY TODAY, MOST LIKELY DIVING JUST WEST OF OUR REGION INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY OVER
OUR REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE STORMS, GENERALLY THINK
THESE WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE/ELEVATED IF STORMS DEVELOP AT ALL.
IF STORMS DO FIRE, THIS COULD SLOW THE GENERATION OF ADDITIONAL
STORMS UNTIL MUCH LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COMPLETELY
DIES OFF AND LEAVES AN OUTFLOW FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLIER
IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH SOME OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
REGARDLESS, THERE APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY WHERE
THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT HAIL
AND TORNADO RISKS ALSO ARE PRESENT. IN ADDITION, GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(90% OF CLIMO), AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING
STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT OUR REGION
IN A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN RISKS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FOCUS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVERING BOUNDARY. MACHINE-LEARNING
GUIDANCE IS IN SUPPORT OF THIS. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN A SLIGHT
SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM THE RUNS
YESTERDAY, WHICH COULD SPARE SOME OF THE REGION FROM THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE STRONGER
GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE MAY FINALLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY DEFINITIVELY
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY, LEADING TO LESS THREATENING
WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ANY PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD IMPROVE
BY 15Z DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
CONFIDENTLY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
SURFACE RIDGING AND MID-LEVEL CAPPING PREVENT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, A CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE-IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WITH RESTRICTIONS RETURNING TOMORROW DUE TO EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL START.
ONE SCENARIO IS THE CURRENT ORGANIZED STORMS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL WEAKEN, BUT NOT DISSIPATE
BRINGING MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS. IF THIS IS THE CASE,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND
SCENARIO WOULD BE THE CURRENT STORMS DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING
OUR REGION WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO MORNING SHOWERS WITH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH VARYING
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF STORMS FOR A
GIVEN DAY IS LIKELY TO BE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AND DEPENDENT ON
UPSTREAM STORM PROGRESSION. MOST RESTRICTIONS DURING THIS PERIOD
WILL BE TIED TO STORM ACTIVITY AND/OR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
RESULTANT OF RAIN PLUS OVERNIGHT CLEARING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...34
AVIATION...LUPO
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