247
FXUS61 KPBZ 232240
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
640 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WITH DRY WEATHER HIGHLY LIKELY UNTIL
AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ENSEMBLE MODEL ANALYSIS REMAINS FIRM ON UPPER RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK PLUS. ANY
DAILY VARIATIONS ARISE FROM SHIFTS ON THE CENTER PLACEMENT OF
THE HIGH AND/OR PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
RESULT IS CONSISTENTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE (RANGING FROM A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE), BOUNTIFUL SUNSHINE (THOUGH
INCREASING CLOUDS BY MID NEXT WEEK) AND DRY WEATHER (CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL REMAIN AT/BELOW 10% THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY MORNING).
MORE FORECAST VARIATIONS ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK AS MODELS SHOW
LARGER UNCERTAINTY IN RIDGE PLACEMENT PLUS TROUGH MOVEMENT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF A RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEM HALLOWEEN NIGHT.
BUT 24-HOUR PROBABILITIES GENERALLY NEVER EXCEED 50% DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, SUGGESTING RAIN LIKELY CONFINED TO ONE PERIOD
(RATHER THAN MULTIPLE ROUNDS) WITH MODELS UNCERTAIN WHICH OF
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY SEES THE BEST CHANCE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT PROLONG PERIODS OF VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY IMPACT ISOLATED SITES WITH IFR TO LIFR VIS
(FKL/HLG) BETWEEN 10Z TO 13Z SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING
OCCURS AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK... OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR IS
HIGHLY LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/CL
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