712
FXUS61 KPBZ 171351
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
951 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLEARING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
- NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
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A CROSSING SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS FROM WEST
TO EAST UNDER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL TOP OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT COLD FRONT.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S / UPPER
20S WHICH MAY SEEM CHILLY, BUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
- DRY AND WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
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TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. A ROUGH 20 DEGREE CHANGE FROM MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES
INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO START MID WEEK. RIDGING, AHEAD
OF A CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH, WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THIS TROUGH, AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW,
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, EXITING
THE REGION BY LATE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN IN PLACE, WHILE
AMPLIFIED, WILL USHER THIS NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
QUITE QUICKLY. TO BOOT, THE 3 DAYS OF DRYING LEADING UP TO THIS
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SOME EVAPORATION AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES
CREATING QUITE A DIFFICULT SITUATION TO SATURATE. IN FACT, THE
NBM GIVES A 10% PROBABILITY OF ONLY 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE AREA
AND A 40% PROBABILITY OF ONLY A 0.25 INCH. TRENDS SEEM LIKELY TO
REMAIN OVERALL DRY HEADING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE THURSDAY
FRONT STRUGGLING TO EVEN PRODUCE A WETTING RAIN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT DRY.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
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THE FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL CREATE SOME
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER FRONT BEGINNING
TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN IN
PLACE WILL SUGGEST AN OVERALL DRY PATTERN.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE LOCKED UNDER A TEMPERATURE INVERSION,
BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT.
SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION. WIND WILL ALSO
DIMINISH BY EVENING UNDER THE HIGH.
OUTLOOK...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. RESTRICTIONS, SHOWERS, AND GUSTY WIND RETURN
THURSDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS VFR FOR FRIDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SHALLENBERGER
NEAR TERM...SHALLENBERGER/88
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...WM/88
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