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FXUS61 KPBZ 200042
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
842 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACHING
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DRY AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS. OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND REMAIN
GUSTY INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
EXITING SHORTWAVE SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST,
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, USHERING IN
MUCH COLDER AIR IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION. DUE TO A RAPID
DECREASE IN 850MB TEMPERATURES, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH
SNOW, EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING, THUS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN
AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR WILL END
PRECPITATION QUICKLY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
OUTSIDE OF LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
COOL WEATHER WILL RESUME MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
THE AREA REMAINS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER NO
MAJOR DISTURBANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DETERIORATION TO MVFR IS EXPECTED FOR MOST PORTS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALIZED
IFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT FKL GIVEN SATURATION AND UPSLOPING
WIND. THAT SW WIND IS LIKELY TO BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING WITH THE CONVECTION.
SOME RECOVERY IN CEILING/VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN COLD NW FLOW SUN.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
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