167
FXUS61 KPBZ 241643
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1243 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. CALM AND LARGELY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MOSTLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY, WITH SOME LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
DEPENDING ON FUTURE MODEL TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RISING HEIGHTS PROMOTE LARGELY DRY WEATHER WITH SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT AT OUR NEXT UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS BRINGS THE NEXT
ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH POPS
RISING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE
TROUGH WILL DETERMINE OUR CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AND THUS STORM
THREAT ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, MACHINE LEARNING MODELS
FAVORS A STEEPER SEVERE THREAT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO
THE CORE OF 30+ KTS OF SHEAR. DESPITE THIS, CAPE VALUES NEAR
1000 J/KG IN THE 50TH PERCENTILE AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR
20-30 KTS STILL POINT TO A LOCALLY LOW BUT NON-ZERO SEVERE
THREAT, FAVORING DAMAGING WINDS.
ENSEMBLES PROG A DECENTLY QUICK TROUGH PASSAGE, WITH RISING
HEIGHTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS LIKELY KICKS OFF ANOTHER FEW DRY
DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN.
IN THE LONG TERM, ENSEMBLES FAVOR A FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD FAVOR REPEATED ROUNDS
OF STORMS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THIS PATTERN POINTS TO SOME
SUBTLE TIMING AND DEPTH ISSUES IN THE LATE WEEK PERIOD THAT
AFFECT THE WEEKEND BUT STILL TRENDS TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL (AND
POSSIBLY STORMY) PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OTHER THAN PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON
AT FKL/DUJ, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED INTO TONIGHT, WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
BETWEEN 15 AND 20KTS, WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF TOUCHING 25KTS.
SCATTERED COVERAGE MAY LINGER PAST THE NORMAL DIURNAL DECREASE
OF CUMULUS, WITH ONGOING BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING AT
FKL/DUJ IN CONTINUED FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE. COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR RIVERS. HLG
AND ZZV ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THIS FOG AND HAVE IFR VISIBILITY
MENTIONED LATE TONIGHT. FKL MAY FOG AS WELL, DEPENDING ON IF
ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS CAN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL
QUICKLY LIFT PAST SUNRISE, WITH VFR CONTINUING THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK...
OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG, VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE THURSDAY.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER/AK
AVIATION...CL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page