141  
FXUS61 KPBZ 181052  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
652 AM EDT MON OCT 18 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY A THURSDAY  
COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE AS DRY AND SEASONABLY  
COOL WEATHER WL BE MAINTAINED VIA BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE UNDER  
NW FLOW ALOFT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST  
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE REPLACED BY AN  
UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO  
ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  
 
THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH,  
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT, ADVANCE FROM THE MIDWEST. SHOWER  
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS  
OH, AS THE TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD  
FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES THEN INDICATE  
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING SETTING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDERNEATH.  
 
GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS  
PERIOD, THOUGH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH COULD  
RETURN MINIMAL/SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
VFR WILL PREVAIL. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN AND RESULT  
IN GUSTS NWLY 20-25KTS FOR THOSE EAST OF ZZV. ONCE MIXING CEASES,  
WIND WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH A SHIFT  
TO THE SOUTHWEST.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
VFR WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL RAIN CHANCES AND RESTRICTIONS  
RETURN WITH A THURSDAY COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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