513
FXUS61 KPBZ 141127
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT WIDESPREAD SEVERE/FLOOD RISK
WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA POSE A MARGINAL FLOOD RISK SOUTH/WEST OF
PITTSBURGH FOR FRIDAY.
2) A BREAK IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED UNTIL THE NEXT FLOOD/SEVERE
CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL SHOWS A RIDGE TROUGH TYPE PATTERN
WITH THE TROUGH BEING OVER THE EAST AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG
SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHEAST INTO WV. THIS WILL KEEP THE MCS
TRACK IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TRACK. THE NBM GIVES A 40%
CHANCE OF RAINFALL OVER 1 INCH SOUTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH THROUGH
THE AREA. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE REGION IN THE CORRIDOR
FOR CONTINUED RAINFALL IS UNDER A REGION OF 1.8 TO 2.0 PWAT
VALUES ACCORDING TO THE HREF. NOT TO MENTION THAT THIS IS THE
MEAN RESULT. CAMS SUGGEST THAT THE TIMING OF THIS RAINFALL IS
MORE IN THE 14Z TO 20Z TIMEFRAME. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS OUT
OF THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH TUCKER
COUNTY BEING CLIPPED FOR A WIND THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BIT OF A BREAK IN WEATHER THREATS AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO PUSH SOUTH FROM ONTARIO, BUT
THIS BREAK WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE MORE SEVERE/FLOOD THREATS
ARRIVE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST. ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE
IN AN WEST-EAST SLIDING LOW. THIS AREA MAY SEE A SLOW MOVING
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND A SLOW DRAGGING COLD FRONT
BEHIND.
THE FLATTER THE FLOW, THE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR ASCENT AND
MINIMIZATION OF ANY THREATS. BUT SHOULD THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TREND MORE AMPLIFIED, THERE MAY BE MORE ASCENT NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW. THIS WOULD INCREASE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREATS ALONG THE
RELATIVELY SLOW PASSING FRONTS AND RAISE CONVECTIVE THREATS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. THE CONDITIONAL FLOOD RISK FAVORS THE WHOLE
AREA WITH A REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO (10% CHANCE) OF A
LOCALIZED AMOUNT SOMEWHERE OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN A 48HR PERIOD.
THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT INCREASES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, AS
DOES THE DISTANCE INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WIND AT THIS TIME. THE ONLY VARIABLE HERE
IS THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL AS THERE IS INCREASED SUPPORT THAT
THE MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOG FOR DUJ/FKL IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 13Z TO 14Z, WHILE RAIN
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FOR SOUTHERN PORTS. TEMPORARY THUNDER IS
MOST LIKELY FOR ZZV AND MGW WITH THE CLOSES PROXIMITY TO
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. NORTH OF THERE, PREVAILING RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR HLG, WITH A CHANCE OF LATE MORNING / EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR PIT, AGC, AND LBE. VFR IS FAVORED TO THE
NORTH, WITH AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MVFR/HIGH IFR CIGS/VIS IN RAIN
FORECAST FOR HLG, MGW, AND ZZV.
THIS RAIN WILL DEPART TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING TO VFR LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED FOR AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
TODAY (HLG, ZZV, MGW) OVERNIGHT AND FOR USUAL SUSPECTS
(DUJ/FKL). FOG IS GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE. FOG COULD
BE DENSE AT TIMES, MOST LIKELY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
DRIER WEATHER IS FAVORED ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND RESTRICTION CHANCES.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MILCAREK/SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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