809
FXUS61 KPBZ 020604
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
204 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALSO
CONTINUES TODAY. THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED DRIER EARLY THIS WEEK
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND SEVERE STORMS
2) DRY START TO THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN RETURNING BY MID WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS MICHIGAN, EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH INDIANA INTO WRN KY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE AND A
LOW LEVEL JET IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS
MAINTAINING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING BEFORE EXITING TO THE NE. SOME INITIAL DECREASE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS A DRY SLOT
BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE APPROACHING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT.
THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NE ACROSS OH, REACHING NW
PA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH, AND A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF IT, SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HREF ML CAPE RANGES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG
BY THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. 0-6KM SHEAR
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT, WITH SOME VEERING WITH
HEIGHT ALSO SEEN ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER THAT CAN OCCUR IN THE BRIEF DRY SLOT. IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS, THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD, THOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR GIVEN THE VEERING PROFILE.
PWATS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES THROUGH THE
DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR ERN OH, NRN WV, AND WRN PA. ISSUED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL TODAY FOR THIS SAME AREA,
AS STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. MODELS INDICATE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR
2 INCHES OR GREATER HIGHEST IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY TRAINING OCCURS.
STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE PARALLEL TO THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH, AND THIS COULD ENHANCE THE TRAINING POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NRN WV AND WRN PA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
AS INSTABILITY WANES, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE AREA
BY LATE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH, KEEPING IT AN OPEN WAVE AND EXITING THE AREA LATER
MONDAY. MAINTAINED SOME POPS S-E OF PIT ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY, AS
THE TROUGH COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ENSEMBLES THEN INDICATE A
BROAD TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS
BY MIDWEEK, AS IT PHASES WITH A LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAILY, OCCASIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD ALSO RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR THIS POTENTIAL AT MOST AIRPORTS. A DECREASE IN THE
OVERALL SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS
THE INITIAL WAVE EXITS, AND A BRIEF DRY SLOT WORKS ACROSS THE
REGION. MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE
ACROSS OH INTO NW PA, AND PULLS A COLD FRONT (AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH) ACROSS THE REGION. INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF OCCURRENCE, WITH GREATER DETAIL IN
FURTHER UPDATES. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH, AND AS INSTABILITY WANES AFTER
SUNSET. AFTER AN INITIAL PERIOD OF VFR, IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
OUTLOOK...
STRATUS AND FOG IS LIKELY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN, THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY FOR LBE-MGW.
OUTSIDE OF ANY MORNING VALLEY FOG, VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY UNDER THE HIGH. PERIODIC RESTRICTION AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR MID TO LAKE WEEK UNDER A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR OHZ040-041-050.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page