135
FXUS61 KPBZ 251802
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
202 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A NEEDED STRETCH OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THAT COULD LAST
THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NOR'EASTER. THIS WILL AFFECT WESTERN PA
AND NORTHERN WV MAINLY. AREAS CLOSEST TO THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE-
LINE COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FROM THE NOR'EASTER.
EASTERN OHIO WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, DAYTIMES HIGHS PULL BRIEFLY
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY FOR OVERCAST LOCATIONS.
A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING DAILY ESPECIALLY
AFTER SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE. AS OF NOW, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
BETWEEN 30%-40%. BASED ON THE WEAK FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE
AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE, THE PROBABILITY OF ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER 24 HOURS. STATS FOR
24 HOUR QPF EXCEEDING 0.10" RESIDE IN THE 20%-30% RANGE.
A SURFACE HIGH REAFFIRMS ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
COULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 700S BY DAY 7.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES. THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WILL FEATURE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME INSTANCES OF VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MAINLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...LOW CHANCE OF VALLEY FOG AT DAYBREAK OTHERWISE VFR
SUNDAY - VFR
MONDAY - VFR
TUESDAY - VFR
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUPO
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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