642
FXUS61 KPBZ 122353
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
753 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO AVIATION DICUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
2) INCREASING DAILY STORM CHANCES THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS ROUGHLY
FURTHER 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. IN SOME
CASES, THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER THE GULF WILL BE JUST OVER 588
DECAMETERS. CERTAINLY UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NWS
HEATRISK TOOL SHOWS A PERSISTENT MINOR HEAT RISK ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEK, WHICH MEANS IMPACTS WILL BE PRIMARILY FOR
THOSE WHO ARE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND WITHOUT
COOLING/HYDRATION. THE DAY WITH THE LARGEST AREA OF HEAT RISK
CONCERN APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
25-75% PROBABILITIES OF AREA RECORD HIGHS BEING HIT (VARYING
EACH DAY) OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. NEW HIGH MINIMUM RECORD
PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM 25-99%. THE BIGGEST FAILURE MODE FOR
NOT REACHING RECORDS WILL BE AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES (AND
AFFILIATED CLOUD COVER). SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PERSISTENT RETURN-FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EAST COAST WITH THE 850MB CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
KEEPS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS DRY BUT SETS THE MAIN AXIS OF
MOISTURE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO TRACK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE
UPPER PORTION. THIS WILL FEATURE A DAILY CHANCE OD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE NBM GIVING
A 50% CHANCE OD THUNDER. NO MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
YET BUT PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING FOR AT LEAST 1000 J/KG FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT PROB IS AT A HEALTHY 60% TO 80%
BUT MAINLY OVER IN OHIO. PRECIP CHANCES WILL FOLLOW EACH DAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK AND EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH
DECOUPLING. THE PROBABILITY OF LLWS FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASING BETWEEN 04Z TO 08Z WITH AN APPROACHING
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS. WITH WARM ADVECTION, THE CHANCES OF CIGS DROPPING BELOW
VFR IS CONSIDERED LOW.
IN THE WAKE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY, EXPECT DIURNAL DRIVEN GUSTS TO
RANGE BETWEEN 20KTS TO 30KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNAL A MOISTURE BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE LATE MONDAY EVENING, BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z. IF
THIS SCENARIO OCCURS, CIG AND VIS RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS MAY OCCUR NEAR FKL OR DUJ.
OUTLOOK...
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK
ALONG IT.
CLIMATE
SEE BELOW FOR RECORD MAX HIGHS AND MAX LOWS THIS WEEK:
MONDAY, APRIL 14TH MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 84F (1941) 65F (2018)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1941) 63F (2018)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 85F (2018) 67F (2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 83F (2018) 63F (2018)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 87F (1941) 63F (1899)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2023) 59F (2014)
TUESDAY, APRIL 15TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899)
DUBOIS, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014)
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 16TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
WHEELING, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DUBOIS, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)
THURSDAY, APRIL 17TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)
FRIDAY, APRIL 18TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)
SATURDAY, APRIL 19TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HEFFERAN/MILCAREK
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