813
FXUS61 KPBZ 301227
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
827 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK
2) PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING EARLY THIS WEEK, EXPANDING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MID WEEK. SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY MID
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE INCREASING 500MB
HEIGHTS, AND S'RLY FLOW, WILL BEGIN THE INCREASE IN HEAT AND
HUMIDITY LATER TODAY. THE CONTINUED RISING 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY.
THE HOTTEST DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WHEN HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW
READINGS NEAR 100 POSSIBLE. THESE HIGHER READINGS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE, AND ANY CONVECTION THAT
COULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE, WITH SHOWER AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NORTH
OF PITTSBURGH. ANOTHER WAVE IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY, RESULTING
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-80. EXTENT AND EXACT LOCATION OF POPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE STRENGTH AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE.
THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK, RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA WIDE,
ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT INCREASING SHEAR, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. CURRENT ML GUIDANCE AND SPC OUTLOOKS INDICATE
THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WOULD BE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
THE EXACT DETAILS OF CONVECTION TIMING AND PLACEMENT, AND
DEPENDS ON THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY IN WARM ADVECTION, AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING FKL
AND DUJ. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS
LIMITED.
OUTLOOK...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK
UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE. AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF PIT COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD
BREAK DOWN LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION WITH CROSSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...WM/LUPO
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