893
FXUS61 KPBZ 200546
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
146 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING
2) CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
2) WARMER WITH PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CROSSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN REDUCED
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAS
CHANGED TO MAINLY SNOW WITH A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -6 DEG C. ROAD TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID 30S TO NEAR 40 SO NO IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH
SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN GRASSY AREAS. THE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXITS, AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED BY MORNING IN THE
WARNING AREA, THOUGH CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT FROST
FORMATION ELSEWHERE. SOME CLEARING TOWARD MORNING IS POSSIBLE,
WITH SOME LOCALIZED FROST POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, RESULTING IN DIMINISHING
WIND AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING. THIS SHOULD BE
THE LAST OF THE COLD AIR THIS WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
TUESDAY, WITH WARM ADVECTION AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE HIGH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE
LIMITED, AND HIGHEST WEST OF THE AREA. RIDGING SHOULD RETURN DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A MORE
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS, AND A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. OCCASIONAL SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED, WITH DRY
TIME IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO REMAIN
LOW, WITH ENSEMBLES INDICATING MINIMAL INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS PRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, MVFR AND
EVEN SOME INSTANCES OF IFR CIGS ACCOMPANY THE STRATOCUMULUS PUSH
INTO THE REGION. IN SOME CASES FOR THE NORTHERN SITES, THE IFR
CIGS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH DAWN.
AS THE SHOWERS DROP SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS, THE
THREAT OF BELOW MVFR CIGS IS MUCH LESS WITH A 30% PROB AT MGW.
THE IMPACT OF THE LOW CIGS WILL MAINLY BE EAST AS ZZV IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE DAY AT ALL THE TERMINALS BECOMING VFR BY 13Z TO 15Z IN MOST
CASES. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY THE 00Z TO 06Z PERIOD.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ENGAGE BY 15Z TO 17Z. THE OUTLIER WILL BE
ZZV WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT EXPECTED AND IN TURN, LESS WINDS
TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.
OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWER POTENTIAL RETURNS WITH A
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE VFR RETURNS THURSDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-
013>016-020-022-074-076>078.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ021-029-031-
073-075.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-
048>050-057-058.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ059-068-069.
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ001-510>514.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ002>004-012-
021-509.
DISCUSSION...WM
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
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