453
FXUS61 KPBZ 062335
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
735 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES BUT OVERALL MESSAGING OF
POTENTIAL RISKS REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, FAVORING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, STAY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH VARYING
LEVELS OF FLASH FLOOD AND DAMAGING WIND RISKS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IF YOU'VE HEARD OR READ OUR DISCUSSIONS RECENTLY, THE CONTENT
MAY SEEM TO BE A ON REPEAT IN SHARING SIMILAR WEATHER MESSAGES.
TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT; THAT'S BECAUSE THE SHORT AND LONG RANGE
FORECASTS HAVE SIMILAR OUTLOOKS FEATURING DAILY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS AS WEAKLY DEVELOPED SHORTWAVES TRACK OVER THE WARM, MOIST
AIRMASS. THE BROAD CONCERNS FOCUS ON HIGH PWATS (HOVERING
BETWEEN THE 80TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES) AND MODEST BUOYANCY
(RANGING FROM 800-1600 J/KG SBCAPE) WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT CREATING NON-ZERO FLASH FLOOD AND DAMAGING WIND
RISKS; TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS/RISKS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED BY PRIOR DAY'S ACTION THAN ANY WELL-
MODELED SYNOPTIC WAVE. THERE ARE 3 PERIODS TO NOTE:
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: INCREASING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND
POTENTIAL FOR AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO CROSS FAVORS MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHILE RAISING THE
DAMAGING WIND RISK. THOSE WINDS MAY REMAIN TO ISOLATED FOR AN
SPC OUTLOOK BUT MACHINE- LEARNING WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SUCH OCCURRENCE THAT PREVIOUS
DAYS.
FOR SUNDAY: THOUGH STORMS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD MORE "QUIET" WEATHER FOR
THIS DAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF A SHORTWAVE SUPPRESSING STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A DROP IN
COLUMN MOISTURE LOWERING INSTABILITY.
FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY: ENSEMBLE TRENDS LEAN TOWARDS A MORE NW FLOW
PATTERN WHILE NEAR-SFC RETURN FLOW RECREATES THE WARM, MOIST
AIRMASS, RETURNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IF MORE DEFINED SHORTWAVE
MOVEMENT BECOMES CLEARER DURING THIS PERIOD, MCS-LIKE STRUCTURES
MAY BE THE MORE LIKELY STORM MODE VS. DIURNAL POP-UP STORMS THAT
WOULD CREATE THE HIGHEST DAMAGING WIND RISKS OF THE PERIOD.
LARGE VARIABILITY REMAINS IN THIS (AND OTHER) SOLUTIONS, BUT
BEARS MONITORING.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 00Z, NO RAIN WAS OBSERVED AT AREA PORTS, SAVE DUJ, SO
OPTED TO REEL BACK WIDESPREAD FOG MENTIONS SAVE FOR FKL/DUJ,
THOUGH TEMPORARY DROPS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THESE
AREAS. THE MAIN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE MORNING
WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF A MORNING WAVE OF SHOWERS. SHOULD THESE
COME THROUGH, WITH AFFILIATED BROKEN VFR/MVFR DECKS, FOG WILL
LIKELY BE LOW PROBABILITY. CAMS SHOW THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
THIS THROUGH THE PITTSBURGH METRO AND POINTS WEST, BUT THIS
WILL REMAIN A BIG "IF". PROB30S WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS CHANCE.
INTO THE AFTERNOON, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BUBBLE UP. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE DAY PRIOR. AS WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, CONFIDENCE IN WHERE OR WHEN THIS HAPPENS IS
GENERALLY LOW, BUT RECENT GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS A MOST LIKELY
WINDOW FROM AROUND 20Z TO 03Z, WITH PERHAPS THE CHANCE OF AN
EARLIER START FOR FKL/DUJ SHOULD THE MORNING SHOWERS DEVELOP AS
THEY MOVE NORTH (SHOULD THEY OCCUR). MVFR/IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN, SHOULD IT HIT ANY GIVEN
PORTS.
OUTLOOK...
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
SUNDAY, WHICH HAS POTENTIAL TO SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN THIS
ACTIVITY. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY/EVENING.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FRAZIER/MILCAREK
AVIATION...WM/MILCAREK
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