315
FXUS61 KPBZ 301748
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
148 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASE TO WEEKEND DEW POINTS BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
REINFORCED BY DIURNAL MIXING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK, SAVE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON TUESDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE GONE DOWN
EVEN MORE IN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SHORTWAVES AROUND
THE TROUGH DISPLACED EAST IN MORE RECENT GUIDANCE, AND SCARCE
COLUMN MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (FORECAST PWATS NEAR THE DAILY
CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE
THROUGH MID- WEEK (HIGHS IN 70S, LOWS IN UPPER 40S/LOW 50S).
TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MID-WEEK WITH ENSEMBLES INDECISIVE
OF RIDGING OR THE STAGNATION OF A CLOSED LOW AROUND THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS MAY BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN REMAINING SEASONABLE
(TROUGHING SOLUTION) OR TEMPERATURES TRENDING ~10F ABOVE AVERAGE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY (RIDGING SOLUTION), BUT MOST LIKELY DRY IN ANY
SCENARIO.
NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN RIDGING WINNING
OUT, BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES AFFILIATED WITH A
DIGGING SURFACE FRONT LATE-WEEK WHICH WILL ALSO RETURN THE NEXT
SIZABLE CHANCE OF ANY RAIN. CIPS ALSO ALLUDES THIS AS THE NEXT NON-
ZERO CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
THAT OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR PERIODS OF CIRRUS.
OUTLOOK...
VFR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS HIGHLY LIKELY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE LOW PROBABILITY SHOWERS (FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN) AND ANY CEILING RESTRICTIONS WITH COOL ADVECTION
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RACKLEY/MLB
AVIATION...FRAZIER
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