524
FXUS61 KPBZ 162327
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
727 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR TODAY. A FREEZE WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE HIGH PROBABILITY FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO/BELOW 32F.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND GUSTY WIND THROUGH TONIGHT
2) COLDER WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
FROST POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
3) DRY AND WARMER NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS AFTERNOON'S PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSAGE,
EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTY WIND WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE IN THE LOWLANDS AND POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
RIDGES. THE PROBABILITY FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA >46 MPH REMAINS
LOW.
A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
THOUGH SOME SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TAPERING
OFF BY THE TIME THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
THAT SAID, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN
NORTH OF I-80 AND IN THE RIDGES WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S, BUT GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY
FLAKES TO STICK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE EAST COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS/CLOSES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION, WITH
LIGHT WIND AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
REGION EFFECTIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BREAK
AWAY FROM THE TROUGH AND PERSIST OFF OF THE SE COAST. OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME
RELATIVELY STATIONARY BY TUESDAY, FOLLOWING A TROPICAL STORM
SIMON. AREAS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHOULD BE UNDER A RIDGE, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MODERATE
BACK TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WITH VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FORCING A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN A SECOND WAVE OF RAIN WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIG/VSBY POTENTIAL AND LOW PROBABILITY FOR IFR CIGS.
THOUGH DRYING AND SUBTLE CIG RISES BEGIN OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, COLD ADVECTION COUPLED WITH
WARM LAKE WATERS MAY RESULT IN NARROW BANDS OF LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS THAT MAINTAIN (OR FURTHER LOWER) THE FAIRLY PREDOMINANT
MVFR STRATUS ON GOING. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING SHOULD
LIFT/BREAKUP RESIDUAL MVFR STRATOCU BY 14Z SAT, WITH CLEAR SKIES
LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR DRY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK, SAVE FOR POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...WM/MLB/LUPO
AVIATION...RACKLEY/FRAZIER
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