277
FXUS61 KPBZ 131739
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
139 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GIVEN HOW THE LOW LEVEL JET EARLIER TODAY OVERPERFORMED, DECIDED
ADDRESS THE WINDS FOR TOMORROW AS WELL. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
TOMORROW CONTINUES TO INCREASE BUT THE TIMING IS STILL LOW
CONFIDENCE. ADDED CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION MAY
HINDER RECORD HIGHS A BIT MORE THAN ONCE THOUGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. DAILY RECORD HIGH
MAX AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED AND POSSIBLY
BROKEN.
2) INCREASING DAILY STORM CHANCES THIS WEEK. MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY NORTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS
SETTING UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE SEEMS TO BE AS SUCH WHERE PRECIP SPLITS HALF THE
FORECAST FROM, NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS ALSO PROVIDES AN INTERESTING
SITUATION WHERE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD
BE BREAKING RECORDS RATHER THAN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DUJ. THIS
WILL MEAN THAT RECORD HEAT WILL NOT BE ALL ENCOMPASSING. IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT WARM LOWS MAY STILL BE THE CASE IN THESE AREAS
GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE TO SOME OF THE CONVECTION.
THIS IS FURTHER PROVEN BY THE LATEST 13Z NBM SHOWING THE
PROBABILITY OF SURPASSING 85 DEGREES, PROBS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY. THE OTHER SITES, SUCH
AS PIT, ZZV, PHD, AND MGW HAVE 60% TO 80% OF SURPASSING 85
DEGREES WHICH WOULD BREAK MUCH OF THE RECORDS IN PLACE AT LEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. IT WOULD SEEM, WED AND THU WOULD BE THE BEST DAYS
TO BREAK RECORDS. THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME LOOKS LIKE RECORDS
COULD BE BROKEN AS WELL BUT DAY 6 OFFERS LESS CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE SPC OUTLOOK STILL CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MARGINAL AREA STILL CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WIND POTENTIAL BUT THE HAIL POTENTIAL REMAINS
STILL A PLAUSIBLE THREAT TO REMAIN. THIS IS DUE TO HOW QUICK THE
WARM LAYER SETS UP JUST ABOVE 850MB. SOME HI-RES MODELS KEEP THE
WARM LAYER IN PLACE BUT SHOW QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS,
WITH THE FACT THAT SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A STRONG
RIGHT TURN HODOGRAPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
IN ANALYZING THE NBM FOR TOMORROW, THE LATE AFTERNOON DATA,
(21Z - 23Z), THE MEAN FOR SB CAPE TAKES IT OVER 1500 J/KG, BUT
IF WE HAVE A WEAK CAP IN PLACE, THE 90TH PERCENTILE SB CAPE
SOARS OVER 2500 J/KG FOR TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AS WELL, THE
CWASP MEAN IS ALREADY OVER 70% BUT AT THE CHANCE OF
OVERPERFORMING, CWASP SOARS TO OVER 80%.
THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS THE TIMING AND SEVERAL
HI-RES MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT ONSET TIMES RANGING FROM NOON
TOMORROW TO 6PM TOMORROW EVENING TO EVEN A ROUND OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL PLAY INTO HOW WELL THE WARM LAYER SETS UP OVER THE
AREA.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE MAX COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY WILL BE
DURING THE DAY OR AFTERNOON EACH DAY WITH SOME CONVECTION
LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20KTS TO 30KTS ARE MOST
LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOME MEAGER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR EVEN STORM,
HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE BULLISH THAN REALITY THUS FAR,
OPTING TO NOT INCLUDE WITH THIS ROUND WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN PORT.
INTO TONIGHT, SOME DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED, THROUGH SHEAR IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS PRONOUNCED AS THE MORNING BEFORE. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF FKL/DUJ ON A WEAK BOUNDARY,
AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BEFORE THE BOUNDARY PULLS BACK
NORTH AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE EARLY MORNING, TURING
SLIGHTLY OVER TO CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY SPLIT BETWEEN THE PRESENCE OF THESE STORMS OR
NOT TOMORROW, SO ONLY OPTED TO INCLUDE PROB30S FOR THUNDER AT
MGW AND HLG FOR NOW, TIED TO THE CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR MODELED IN
THE HRRR AT THIS TIME. THESE THUNDERSTORM TRENDS ARE VERY LIKELY
TO TREND UP OR DOWN: THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE UNTIL
MODELS CAPTURE UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM TODAY.
CHANCES OF MVFR INCREASE, MOSTLY FOR FKL AND DUJ TOMORROW
MORNING WITH MORE MODELED LOW MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES AND
STALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK ALONG IT.
CLIMATE
SEE BELOW FOR RECORD MAX HIGHS AND MAX LOWS THIS WEEK:
TUESDAY, APRIL 15TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (1883) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 87F (1941) 60F (2014)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (2018) 66F (2014)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2023) 56F (2006)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 87F (1941) 60F (1899)
DUBOIS, PA: 86F (2023) 60F (2014)
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 16TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 85F (1883) 61F (1967)
WHEELING, WV: 82F (2010) 59F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 86F (1993) 65F (1967)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 82F (2010) 58F (2023)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 85F (1941) 61F (1972)
DUBOIS, PA: 79F (2003) 56F (2002)
THURSDAY, APRIL 17TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 86F (2002) 63F (2017)
WHEELING, WV: 86F (1945) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 88F (2002) 64F (2012)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 85F (2002) 62F (2017)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 86F (2002) 65F (1912)
DUBOIS, PA: 82F (2012) 59F (1976)
FRIDAY, APRIL 18TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 87F (1896) 63F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 84F (2002) 64F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 89F (1976) 64F (1960)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 84F (2002) 60F (1982)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 88F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 83F (2002) 60F (2002)
SATURDAY, APRIL 19TH: MAX HIGH MAX LOW
PITTSBURGH, PA: 90F (1896) 64F (1896)
WHEELING, WV: 85F (2025) 63F (2002)
MORGANTOWN, WV: 92F (1976) 64F (2013)
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH: 86F (1976) 57F (2019)
ZANESVILLE, OH: 92F (1896) 66F (1896)
DUBOIS, PA: 87F (1976) 61F (2002)
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...MILCAREK
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