498
FXUS61 KPBZ 111826
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
226 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AIRMASS HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED FOR ALL OF PA,
THE WV PANHANDLE, AND SOME OF THE NORTHERN OH COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STORMS WILL BRING NEAR-DAILY FLOOD AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS GRADUALLY
DECREASING WITH TIME IN THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREDICTABILITY
HORIZON IS MAINLY JUST THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES PUSH ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN DOMINATE THE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT PERIOD OF 6-12 HOURS.
A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OVERNIGHT AND TODAY HAS
PUSHED THE EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT RELATIVELY FAR SOUTH
AND STABILIZED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RICH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, AND REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE LIKELY TO KEEP IT FROM LIFTING BACK
NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE OHIO
COUNTIES AND PERHAPS THE WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SEVERE THREAT IS MUCH LOWER DUE TO
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA NEAR
ZZV.
WITH THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH WITH EACH
MCS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
LIKELY SETUP FROM NORTHERN INDIANA SE INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AND MAY
BE OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
FLY IN THE OINTMENT TONIGHT IS THAT A SEPARATE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MI ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND BRUSHES NORTHWEST PA. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
SCATTERED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. THIS IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO AND THE LOWER PROBABILITIES OF 2" OR MORE
DOES NOT WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER THE WNW FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NEARLY DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES THURSDAY AND
SUNDAY. LOW PROBABILITIES OF HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST IN THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS TEMPO FOR SHOWERS MAY NOT
MATERIALIZE GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS. IN ADDITION, CIGS COULD BE
HIGHER THAN IFR OVERNIGHT AT SOME AIRPORTS.
CIGS SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
THE BATCH OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH. SCATTERED STORMS COULD AFFECT
FKL AND DUJ WHILE THE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN OHIO SHOULD IMPACT
ZZV. ELECTED TO CARRY A TEMPO TO COVER THIS FOR SEVERAL AIRPORTS
DURING THE 20-02Z WINDOW. MOST OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY. THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF AN AIRPORT SEEING A THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE
FKL/DUJ/ZZV.
THE OTHER CHALLENGE IS HOW WIDESPREAD THE IFR CLOUDS WILL BE
TONIGHT? THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ALL SITES DROP
BELOW IFR TO THRESHOLD B MINS. IT WAS HARD TO REFUTE THE
GUIDANCE, BUT SOMETHING WE WILL FINE TUNE WITH THE NEXT FORECAST
SUITE.
VFR WEDNESDAY ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS LIFT WITH THE NORTHERN
AIRPORTS OF FKL AND DUJ OWING TO SCATTERED CIRRUS OTHERWISE MORE
STRATOCU.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FOR AIRPORTS WITH AT WORSE A
BRIEF DROP IN A SHOWER OR STORM. ACTIVITY IS ON THE UPTICK
THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE QUIETING DOWN TO VFR
WEATHER SAVE FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG AT A FEW TERMINALS.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OHZ039-048-057-058-
068-069.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ012-021-509>514.
DISCUSSION...CRAVEN
AVIATION...MCMULLEN
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