023
FGCA72 TJSJ 150718
ESFSJU
PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-
033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053>055-057-059-061-063-065-
067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-
101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-131-133-
135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-VIC010-020-030-171215-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 AM AST MON SEP 15 2025
...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORKWEEK ENHANCING THE RISK OF FLOODING...
THE ACTIVE AFTERNOONS EXPERIENCED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE
MAINTAINED SATURATED SOILS ALONG A GREAT PORTION OF THE INTERIOR AND
WEST OF PUERTO RICO. THESE RAINS HAVE ALSO RECHARGED MUST OF THE
STREAM CHANNELS IN PUERTO RICO, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF A FEW RIVER
IN THE EASTERN-INTERIOR AND SOUTHEAST.
THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK CALLS FOR A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN TODAY, AND A TROPICAL WAVE COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH THE DISTURBANCE REACHING THE ISLANDS TODAY, THE BEST CHANCES OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EARLY FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS,
AND THEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO PUERTO RICO, REACHING THE
EAST, THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA, THE INTERIOR AND WEST.
THE WAVE MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOKS STRONGER, AND
WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SO FAR, THE
EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A COMPLETE WASH OUT, BUT THE LOCAL
GUIDANCE ARE HINTING ON AN UPPER AND LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN
FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
THE MAIN THREATS IN PUERTO RICO FOR MOST OF THE WORKWEEK WILL BE THE
RISK OF URBAN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, LANDSLIDES, WATER SURGES
ALONG RIVERS, AND SOME RIVERS REACHING FLOOD STAGE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION COULD RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES EACH DAY, WITH HIGHER
ISOLATED AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN THREATS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE WATER SURGES ALONG
DRAINAGE GUTS, PONDING OF WATER IN ROADWAYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS, AND
ISOLATED URBAN FLOOD AND LANDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION COULD
RANGE FROM UP TO AN INCH EACH DAY, AND VERY ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE USERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST,
AND STAY TUNED FOR ANY FLOOD PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ONLY IF CONDITIONS
CHANGE.
ERG
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