180
FGCA72 TJSJ 231406
ESFSJU
PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-
033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053>055-057-059-061-063-065-
067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-
101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-131-133-
135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-VIC010-020-030-270000-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1006 AM AST TUE SEP 23 2025
...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENHANCE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE, DESIGNATED AS INVEST 94L BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER, WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY NIGHT, ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY.
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL REACH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ANTICIPATED. THE RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS VIEQUES, CULEBRA, AND
EAST AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. SO FAR, THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO.
THE TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD STRUCTURE IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS, AND A BIG AREA OF ABOVE THAN NORMAL MOISTURE CONTENT.
ALSO, PREVIOUS RAINFALLS MAINTAIN SOILS SATURATED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR, WESTERN AND THE EXTREME EAST OF PUERTO RICO. SOILS ARE
ALSO SATURATED IN PORTIONS OF ST.CROIX AND ST. THOMAS, ACCORDING TO
THE NATIONAL MOISTURE SOIL ANALYSIS. HOWEVER, SOILS ARE NOT
SATURATED ALONG THE EAST-INTERIOR, AND MOST OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO.
U.S.GEOLOGICAL SURVEY SENSORS SHOWS THAT MOST STREAMS ARE RUNNING
NEAR NORMAL, BUT SOME RIVERS ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL IN THE
EAST-INTERIOR AND SOUTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE RAINING ALL DAY LONG, OR
EVERYWHERE AT THE SAME TIME, THIS WET PERIOD WILL INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF EXPERIENCING URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING,
LANDSLIDES, RAPID RIVER RISES, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD AND RIVERS
REACHING FLOOD STAGE. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING, THAT EVEN THOUGH
RIVERS ARE NOT AS HIGH IN THE EAST, THESE RIVERS TEND TO REACT
QUICKLY. ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, WATER SURGES ALONG DRAINAGE GUTS
ARE A CONCERN AS WELL.
THE LOCAL GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TERRITORIES WILL
OBSERVE THESE RAINS, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
AMOUNTS, TIMING AND LOCATION. FOR NOW, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD (LATE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY).
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY FROM RIVERS AND FLOOD
PRONE AREAS, AND TO STAY TUNED TO ANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AND
FLOOD PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.
ERG
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