020  
FNCA72 TJSJ 031851  
FWSSJU  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TOA BAJA FIRE...OMME TOA BAJA  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR  
251 PM AST WED JUL 3 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1500 AST ON JULY 03.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST, CONTACT (787) 253-4501.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH  
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY  
WIND FLOW PEAKING AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SHOWERS, IF  
ANY, CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
CONDITIONS FOR SMOKE DISPERSAL ARE GOOD DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,  
BUT POOR TO FAIR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WINDS AND  
MIXING HEIGHTS DECREASE.  
 
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.  
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......EAST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-4000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 17 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (43900 KNOT-FT).  
DISPERSION..........6.  
 
TIME (AST) 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........30 30 30  
WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1  
TEMP............89 88 86  
RH..............59 61 64  
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..13 13 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.17 17 16  
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.0 3.5 2.9  
MIXNG WIND DIR..E E E  
MIXNG WIND SPD..15 17 17  
DISPERSION......6 6 6  
VRATE KT-FT/100053 51 44  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED  
SHOWERS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.  
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 16 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (500-27500 KNOT-FT).  
DISPERSION..........6.  
 
TIME (AST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........50 50 50 50 50 50 60 60 60 60 60 60  
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 30 30 30 40 40 40 40 40 40  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............84 82 81 80 79 78 78 77 77 76 76 78  
RH..............70 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 94 95 94 87  
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..11 10 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 13 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 7  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2  
MIXNG WIND DIR..E E E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE  
MIXNG WIND SPD..16 14 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8  
DISPERSION......6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5  
VRATE KT-FT/100028 12 3 1 1 2 3 3 3 1 1 1  
   
INDEPENDENCE DAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.  
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......EAST WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900-5500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 21 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (5700-53600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
EXCELLENT (65900 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE MORNING.  
DISPERSION..........6.  
 
TIME (AST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........21 21 21 21 21 21 40 40 40 40 40 40  
WEATHER COV..... ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............81 83 85 87 89 90 91 91 91 90 89 87  
RH..............81 76 72 67 64 62 60 58 57 58 60 65  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE E E E E E E E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 15 15 15 15  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 10 10 14 14 17 18 18 18 19 18 18  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 1.5 2.4 3.4 4.3 5.1 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.1 4.7 3.9  
MIXNG WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE E E E E E E E  
MIXNG WIND SPD..9 10 13 14 14 15 16 17 18 20 21 21  
DISPERSION......6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6  
VRATE KT-FT/10006 14 26 40 54 66 76 83 86 88 83 71  
 

 
FORECASTER...COLON  
REQUESTED BY...LUIS RIVERA  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1911733.0/SJU  
.DELDT 07/03/19  
.EMAIL LRIVERA@TOABAJA.COM  
 
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