026
FXCA62 TJSJ 300835
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST MON JAN 30 2023
SYNOPSIS
VARIABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED FROM
TIME TO TIME, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. CHOPPY TO HAZARDOUS SEAS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE ZONES. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTH
AND EAST FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO, SAINT THOMAS, SAINT JOHN
AND SAINT CROIX.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CHOPPY TO HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES,
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST FACING
BEACHES OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TODAY'S SHOWERS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PR. NORMAL TO
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
GENERAL DUE TO THE MEAN NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.
A BROAD MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CUBA WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE DRIER AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE TRADE WIND CAP
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FRAGMENTED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS NORTHERLY COOLER AIR MOVING
OVER WARMER WATERS NEAR THE ISLANDS WILL PROMOTE AN ADVECTIVE
PATTERN, WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS
THE USVI AND ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR. IN
ADDITION, DUE TO THE STRONGER THAN NORMAL TRADES, SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL PR. HOWEVER, MINOR
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIGHT
AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER SW PR IF THE SEA BREEZE CAN
OVERCOME THE MEAN NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED IN THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECASTED TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LOCAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO BE VARIABLE WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE DRAGGED BY THE TRADE
WINDS. THESE PATCHES WILL SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN, NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AT TIMES AND AS
WELL THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GENERAL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST, SUPPORTING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAD
TO PONDING OF WATER IN ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A SMALL PERTURBATION COMING
FROM THE EAST WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. A SLIGHT CHANGE ON THE WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING MORE HUMIDITY, INCREASING THE FREQUENCY OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT VALUES BETWEEN 1.35 TO
1.62 INCHES INDICATES A HUMID A WETTER PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, QUICK PASSING SHOWERS
MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT THE USVI TERMINALS BTW 12Z-20Z, AND IN
TJSJ BTW 20Z-23Z. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ENE AT 12-
18 KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS.
MARINE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS, AND SMALL NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL
MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST LOCAL WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS, OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS, ANEGADA AND MONA
PASSAGES, AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.
FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS, SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO CHOPPY MARINE CONDITIONS, WITH WIND-
DRIVEN SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET. FOR BEACHGOERS, A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST NORTH-AND EAST-FACING BEACHES
OF PUERTO RICO, CULEBRA, AND ALL THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS, WHERE
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-012.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR VIZ002.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VIZ001.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ710-712-715-
741.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST TUESDAY FOR AMZ722.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM AST TUESDAY FOR AMZ732-742.
DSR/GRS
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