696
FXCA62 TJSJ 230917
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 517 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2026
* HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH DANGEROUS
OFFSHORE SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS POSING A RISK TO SMALL CRAFT AND
SWIMMERS. MARINE HAZARDS EXTEND TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
* WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE TODAY AND SATURDAY, INCREASING AGAIN
TO BREEZY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
* THE MOISTURE FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN REGION TODAY. IN THE AFTERNOON,
STREAMERS WILL FORM WEST OF THE USVI, EL YUNQUE, AND THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2026
PERSISTENT QUICK MOVING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED MOST OF THE NIGHT
ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO, VIEQUES, CULEBRA AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AT TIMES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT
SIGNIFICANT, HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES COOLED DOWN TO THE LOW 70S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE INTERIOR REGISTERING VALUES
IN THE 60S. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
A SURFACE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY, DRIVING THE
TRADE WINDS FROM THE EAST AT SPEEDS NEARLY 15 KNOTS, WHICH IS LOWER
THAN WHAT IT'S HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS, THE MOISTURE FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. AS A RESULT,
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY. DURING MOST OF THE DAY, THESE
SHOWERS WILL REACH PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ALSO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE AFTERNOON, THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MODERATE WIND SPEEDS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STREAMERS,
FORMING ON THE WESTWARD AREAS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, EL YUNQUE, AND
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT PRIME FOR VERY HEAVY,
LONG-LASTING RAIN, BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME
IMPACTS IN TRAFFIC DUE TO PONDING OF WATER AND WET ROADS.
ON SATURDAY, THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN 1 OR 2 KNOTS AS THE RIDGE ROLLS
EASTWARD AND FARTHER FROM THE CARIBBEAN. OTHER THAN THAT, IN THE LOW
LEVELS, THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED, AND
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT WOULD BE WISE TO HAVE AN
UMBRELLA OR RAIN COAT HANDY AT ALL TIMES, AS BRIEF SHOWER
INTERRUPTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PATTERN WILL ALSO FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN, AND WHILE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS
NOT VERY LIKELY, THERE COULD BE WATER SURGES ALONG SMALL STREAMS.
ON SUNDAY, A NEW SURFACE HIGH ROLLS FROM THE WEST, CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS ONCE AGAIN, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE RIDGE
WILL STRETCH INTO THE MID LEVELS TOO, WHILE A DRY AIR SLOT ARRIVES
AT 850 MB. A TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION AROUND THIS LEVEL WILL TRAP
ANY LITTLE REMAINING MOISTURE CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, THE
FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS WILL DECREASE TO NEARLY 10-20%, GIVING WAY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2026
A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND FRONTAL LOWS WILL MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT WORKWEEK
RESULTING IN GENERALLY E TO ESE STEERING FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
STEER PATCHES OF DRIER AND MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE ISLANDS,
RESULTING IN IN SEASONAL (<1.50 IN) TO BELOW SEASONAL (<1.20 IN)
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES OVER THE AREA. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST AMPLE PATCHES OF DRIER AIR WILL
REACH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. 925 MB WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TO
POSSIBLY BELOW SEASONAL TO END THE WORKWEEK. 925 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW FORECAST TO CLIMB TO ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES AS ESE FLOW
BRINGS IN WARMER AIR TO THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
PROVIDING SOME INSTABILITY, HOWEVER IT WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, LOCALIZED
EFFECTS MAY STILL INDUCE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, THOUGH NO
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. PASSING SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE STEERED
OVER WINDWARD AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED TO BELOW 800 MB.
OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2026
PERSISTING SHRA EXPECTED TODAY ALONG TJSJ AND USVI TERMINALS
EARLY IN THE DAY. AFTER 17Z, ADDITIONAL SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL, REACHING TJPS AND TJBQ TERMINALS.
PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS AND LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
BE SLOWING DOWN TODAY, BUT STILL FROM THE E AT 14-15 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 517 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2026
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLIES TODAY, DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERLIES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE BY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE ATLANTIC. A LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES BY AROUND
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 517 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2026
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM AST
TOMORROW, SATURDAY, FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BEACHES OF PUERTO
RICO, CULEBRA, AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, WHERE LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY. A LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL PERSIST ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN BEACHES OF
THE ISLANDS. UNDER MODERATE AREAS, LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SURF ZONE. UP TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOR MORE INFO, VISIT: WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/SJU.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PRZ001-002-005-
008-012.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VIZ001-002.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST SUNDAY FOR AMZ711.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ712-723.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ERG
LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST/KEY MESSAGES...MRR
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