512
FXCA62 TJSJ 281630
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1230 PM AST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM AST SUN DEC 28 2025
* PULSES OF A LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE
THROUGH MIDWEEK, MAINTAINING A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTH-FACING BEACHES OF
PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING CULEBRA, AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.
* FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS AT TIMES. LATE IN THE WORKWEEK, AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN GENERAL, THOUGH IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED.
* NEW YEAR’S EVE: MODERATE (10-15 KT) EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADES
RETURN. MOISTURE CONTENT PEAKS OVER THE REGION, THEREFORE,
PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.
SHORT TERM(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM AST SUN DEC 28 2025
THE MAIN HAZARD DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL BE LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEACHES
OF THE ISLANDS DUE TO PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. IN GENERAL, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW AND MID
70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WIND WAS LIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT. FOR TONIGHT, FRAGMENTED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN USVI AND NORTHEASTERN PR UNDER WEAK STEERING NORTHERLY
WINDS.
LIGHT WINDS AND OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND A POLAR TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AT NEAR 0.80 INCHES AND 925
MB TEMPERATURES AT NEAR -17C WHICH ARE TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THEREFORE, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PR TO THE
UPPER 50S AND MID 60S ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW AND MID 70S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE LOW AND MID 80S ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.
LONG TERM(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM AST SUN DEC 28 2025
EXPECT PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL BRING
FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH COOLER-THAN- NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE-INDUCED TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WARM, WITH WARMER-THAN-NORMAL
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY
WINDS. THE HIGHEST RISK PERIOD IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, WHEN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. LIGHTNING AND BRIEF STRONG
WIND GUSTS HAZARD RISKS WILL BE MORE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME, AND
TRADE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AROUND FRIDAY EVENING. FROM
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SHOWERS WILL STILL OCCUR, BUT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE. A LOWER CONFIDENCE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, DEPENDING
ON HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE NEXT SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM AST SUN DEC 28 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, -RA AND SCT/BKN CIGS BTW
FL030-FL060 ARE POSSIBLE NEAR TIST BY 28/23Z AND OVERNIGHT AT
TJSJ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE LIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT, EXCEPT
IN WEAK SEA/LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM AST SUN DEC 28 2025
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PROMOTE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE, PULSES OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS
FROM DISTANT AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 6 FEET AT 12 TO 13 SECONDS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 1230 PM AST SUN DEC 28 2025
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING CULEBRA, AND ST.
THOMAS, AND ST. JOHN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTH-FACING
BEACHES OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR VIZ001.
AM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....ICP
AVIATION...DS
BEACH/MARINE...DS
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