519
FXCA62 TJSJ 200841
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 438 AM AST FRI FEB 20 2026
* HAZARDOUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO A LONG-
PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL AFFECTING THE REGIONAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT, ALONG WITH A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
* BREAKING WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS ALONG EXPOSED ATLANTIC COASTLINES AND
NORTHERN BEACHES, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM RINCON TO
FAJARDO, AS WELL AS CULEBRA, ST. THOMAS, ST. JOHN, AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS. WAVE ACTION MAY ALSO LEAD TO MINOR BEACH EROSION AND
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
* ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL,
WITH HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG EXPOSED BEACHES. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS WILL STEER PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT TIMES,
PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON.
* ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, LIKELY BRINGING A
RENEWED PERIOD OF DETERIORATING WEATHER AND HAZARDOUS MARINE AND
COASTAL IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM AST FRI FEB 20 2026
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH DOPPLER RADAR DETECTING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
HOWEVER, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINED OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
RESULTING IN QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN, PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER. MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH SUNDAY SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY FLUCTUATING BETWEEN AROUND 0.9
AND 1.5 INCHES, WITH PERIODIC PATCHES OF MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE BRIEF INCREASES IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT THE PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL
DRYNESS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING AND KEEP CONVECTION
MOSTLY SHALLOW.
THEREFORE, DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, PASSING
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE AT TIMES ACROSS WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS
OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, STEERED BY
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS. BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, LOCAL EFFECTS, SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE, AND DIURNAL
HEATING WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED EARLIER, GIVEN THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND PRIMARILY SHALLOW.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WHERE SHOWERS PERSIST. OVERALL, PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH INTERMITTENT
PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.
LONG TERM(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM AST FRI FEB 20 2026
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST BEGINS WITH A STABLE AND RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN MAINTAINS A STEADY
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THIS WIND PATTERN WILL
FAVOR WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.3
INCHES, MOSTLY FROM THE SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 700 MB, WILL
SUPPORT AFTERNOON CONVECTION DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. ON
TUESDAY, SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA, DIMINISHING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOWING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MORE RELAXED FLOW PATTERN
MAY ENHANCE LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MORE
EFFICIENTLY DESPITE MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. OVERALL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED, WITH MINOR
PONDING POSSIBLE IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.
BY WEDNESDAY, A TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
EXPECTED AS DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST. INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT NEAR 500 MB, AND DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SETUP
MAY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY, PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF TRAINING SHOWERS DEVELOP. FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WESTERN INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY REESTABLISH MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. HOWEVER, LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE PASSING SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS,
FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. A
VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE LATTER PART
OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 438 AM AST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS.
BRIEF VCSH PSBL OVER WINDWARD TERMINALS AND LOCAL WATERS THRU THE
MRNG HRS. AFTER 20/14Z, SHRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR/WESTERN PR
WITH LIMITED IMPACTS TO TJBQ AND PSBLY TJPS. VARIABLE SFC WINDS BLO
10 KTS, BCMG 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20–22 KTS AFT 20/14Z WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. THE 20/00Z TJSJ SNDG INDICATED ESE WINDS UP
TO 17 KT BLO FL050.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 438 AM AST FRI FEB 20 2026
A LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL PROMOTE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH BY TONIGHT. THUS, CONFUSED
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT
DURING THIS PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER THE
MONA PASSAGE, ATLANTIC OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SWELL COULD REACH THE ISLANDS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 438 AM AST FRI FEB 20 2026
A LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZARDOUS
COASTAL CONDITIONS ALONG NORTHERN EXPOSED BEACHES. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH *6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
NORTHWEST, NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO, AS WELL AS
CULEBRA, DUE TO LARGE BREAKING WAVES UP TO 10 TO 12 FEET. A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS (LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY IN
THE SURF ZONE) WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHWEST, NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO, AS WELL AS CULEBRA, ST. THOMAS &
ST. JOHN THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW, SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
BEACHGOERS AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THESE
EXPOSED WATERS, CONTINUE MONITORING FORECAST UPDATES, AND FOLLOW ALL
LOCAL ADVISORIES, WARNINGS, AND GUIDANCE FROM LIFEGUARDS AND LOCAL
OFFICIALS AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. FOR MORE INFORMATION, VISIT:
WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/SJU.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
VI...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR VIZ001.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST SATURDAY FOR AMZ711-712-741.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ716-742.
SHORT TERM, AVIATION, KEY MESSAGES...CVB
LONG TERM...LIS
MARINE/BEACH...MRR
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