372
FXCA62 TJSJ 130657
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 AM AST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 257 AM AST FRI FEB 13 2026
* WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY, WITH LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
* FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ENHANCE CLOUDINESS SAND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION.
* THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL 6 PM AST WITH BREAKING WAVES UP TO 6
FEET. FOR THE REST OF THE COASTAL AREAS, INCLUDING THE SOUTH
AND WESTERN, CULEBRA, VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THERE
WILL BE A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM AST FRI FEB 13 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY. AT
EARLY MORNING HOURS, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MOST OF THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO, CULEBRA, AND VIEQUES. THE CLOUDINESS WAS
DISSIPATING DURING THE MORNING FOR THE NORTH-EASTERN, PREVAILING
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS MOSTLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS LIMITED, AND
NLY WAS ONLY OBSERVED BY THE DOPPLER RADAR ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE ACTIVITY WAS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THAT AREA
AS WELL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE URBAN SECTION AND FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
AT THE SURFACE, THE MAIN DRIVERS WILL BE THE COMBINATION OF THE
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
THE UPCOMING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW A
WEAKENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE DAY, RESULTING IN
MORE LIGHT WINDS DURING THE DAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. UNDER THIS
PATTERN, THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FRAGMENTS
OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG THE ISLANDS. ACCORDING TO RECENT GOES-
DERIVED IMAGERY, PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.5 IN, ENOUGH TO ENHANCE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THE
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST,
FOLLOWED BY LIMITED, SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS. SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY, SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD MOSTLY RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING ALONG URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS. FROM SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES DOMINATING THE PATTERN. ON
SATURDAY, SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST-
NORTHEAST WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOISTURE
CONTENT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT FOR MOST OF THE MORNING ON
SATURDAY, WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WITH PWAT IN LESS THAN 1 IN.
LIMITING MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS; HOWEVER, MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST MOST
OF THE MORNING. SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE MORE FROM
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE, A
VARIABLE DAY WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUDINESS AND FREQUENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, WARMER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS
URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS AND EVEN THE LOWER 90S, AND IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LONG TERM(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM AST FRI FEB 13 2026
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A TRANSITION DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD, AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTS THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MIGRATES TOWARD
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
WEAKENING, LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE INFLUENCE OF A PREVAILING MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
BY TUESDAY, A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE REGION, PROMOTING A GRADUAL STABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. LATEST PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THIS TREND, WITH VALUES DECREASING TOWARD SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGICAL
LEVELS, GENERALLY AROUND 1.20 TO 1.55 INCHES. AS A RESULT, SHOWER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE COMPARED TO MONDAY, WITH TRADE-WIND
MOISTURE FAVORING BRIEF PASSING MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, FOLLOWED BY LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A MORE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER THIS REGIME, WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER PUNCTUATED
BY BRIEF TRADE-WIND SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. OVERALL, THE FLOODING
THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MONDAY AS MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TAKE
HOLD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 257 AM AST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCT CLOUD LAYERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH CIGS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN FL030 AND FL060. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT, INCREASING AFTER 13/15Z
FROM THE E-SE AT 8-12 KT DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. BRIEF
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHRA, AND WILL RESULT
IN LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN VIS AND TEMPORARY LOWERING OF CIGS.
OVERALL, NO PROLONGED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 AM AST FRI FEB 13 2026
A SURFACE HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR THE ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS, INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN. LOCAL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER LONG-PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE AROUND SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 257 AM AST FRI FEB 13 2026
COASTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR BEACHGOERS TODAY BREAKING
WAVES UP TO 6 FEET DURING THE DAY ALONG THE NORTH EXPOSED BEACHES
OF PUERTO RICO. AS A RESULT, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREAS INCLUDING SOUTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO, CULEBRA,
VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ENJOY OF A LOW TO
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT AND MOSTLY MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND FOR ALL THE COASTAL AREAS.
ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG-PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE
ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY, WHEN THE RISK COULD
BECOME HIGH. FOR MORE INFORMATION, VISIT:
WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/SJU.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PRZ001-002-005-
008-012.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
SHORT TERM, BEACH FORECAST & AVIATION...LIS
LONG TERM....MRR
MARINE...CAM
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