672
FXCA62 TJSJ 300947
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 545 AM AST SUN NOV 30 2025
* THE 2025 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON ENDS TODAY, NOVEMBER 30TH.
* SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, POSING A LIMITED FLOODING RISK, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PUERTO RICO.
* BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. THEREFORE THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
* MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
FOR PR AND USVI.
* THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO, SHOULD EXPERIENCE
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM AST SUN NOV 30 2025
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS TODAY BROUGHT FAST-MOVING AND FREQUENT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO,
WITH A FEW REACHING FARTHER INLAND. RADAR SHOWS UP TO ABOUT 1 INCH
OF RAIN IN ISOLATED SPOTS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO SINCE MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WERE BREEZY IN EXPOSED AREAS, GENERALLY FROM THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH, WHILE MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WERE LIGHT
OR CALM. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE LOW 60S IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TYPICAL PATTERN OF PASSING TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING, WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
PUERTO RICO, VIEQUES, CULEBRA, AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. DURING
THE AFTERNOON, A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HILLS AND DOWNWIND FROM THE ISLANDS, INCLUDING THE SIERRA DE
LUQUILLO, STEERED BY A FRESH EASTERLY BREEZE. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH A LIMITED
FLOODING RISK, AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS, AND MAY BE
LOCALLY STRONGER WHERE SEA-BREEZE EFFECTS FORM. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
80S, WITH A FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY NEAR 90 DEGREES.
THE TYPICAL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING PATTERN WILL RETURN
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE EACH NIGHT, WITH PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO, THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND NEARBY WATERS.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE, SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHEASTERLY FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST, WHICH WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL IN
ISOLATED AREAS. A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. ALTHOUGH FLOODING REMAINS LIMITED FOR
NOW, THE AREA AT RISK MAY GROW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE COMMON AND RAINFALL COVERAGE INCREASES.
LIGHTNING RISK WILL ALSO EXPAND. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT BACK TO AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE
WINDS TURN MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM AST SUN NOV 30 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION MIDWEEK,
EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE MID-LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING A MODERATE CHANCE OF INSTABILITY (AROUND 40 TO 60 PERCENT)
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, AN EASTERLY
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS, MAINTAINING A HUMID AND
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
THURSDAY CURRENTLY HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ADDITIONAL WEATHER,
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A 50 TO 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD TEMPORARILY AFFECT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. ADDITIONALLY, IF FREQUENT SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER
THE SAME AREAS, LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN REGIONS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE. THEREFORE, WE ANTICIPATE A LIMITED FLOODING RISK,
PARTICULARLY OVER PR.
FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. AS IT DOES SO,
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP WEAKEN THE TROUGH, PROMOTING A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE (30 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING HOURS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM AST SUN NOV 30 2025
SHRA WILL AFFECT TJSJ, TIST, AND TISX AT TIMES, WITH BRIEF MVFR
CIG/VIS, MNT OBSC, AND VIS DROPS MAINLY THRU 30/14Z AND AGAIN AFT
30/23Z. TJPS/TJBQ MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR WITH AFTN SHRA/ISO TSRA
30/17-22Z. WINDS THRU FL015 E 15–25 KT. SFC WINDS LIGHT/CALM
EARLY, INCREASING TO 15–20 KT WITH GUSTS AND SBRZ EFFECTS AFT
30/13Z, THEN LIGHT/CALM AGAIN AFT 30/22Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 545 AM AST SUN NOV 30 2025
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, INTERACTING WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WILL
PROMOTE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OFFSHORE
WATERS AND PASSAGES, PARTICULARLY THOSE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TODAY ACROSS
THE EXPOSED ATLANTIC WATERS.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 545 AM AST SUN NOV 30 2025
THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IS MODERATE ALONG NORTH
AND EAST-FACING BEACHES, PARTICULARLY THOSE ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO, AS WELL AS IN VIEQUES,
CULEBRA, AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS RISK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN OTHER AREAS, WHILE THE RISK IS
LOW, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CAN STILL OCCUR NEAR GROINS, JETTIES,
REEFS, AND PIERS.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST MONDAY FOR AMZ711.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ICP
LONG TERM/MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...MMC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page