620
FXCA62 TJSJ 080602
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
202 AM AST MON JUN 8 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 148 AM AST MON JUN 8 2026
* HAZY SKIES AND WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE REGION
AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE.
* HEAT INDICES MAY REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL AND URBAN AREAS. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
OVER THE COMING DAYS.
* PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WINDWARD AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AS PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVE IN WITH
THE TRADE WINDS.
* A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY ON MANY EXPOSED BEACHES DUE TO BREEZY EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT BEACHGOERS SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR THE
SURF ZONE.
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM AST MON JUN 8 2026
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINED RELATIVELY CALM UNDER
MAINLY HAZY SKIES. TEMPERATURES STAYED WARM ACROSS THE URBAN AND
COASTAL AREAS, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S,
WHILE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OBSERVED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS LINGERING SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES REMAIN SUSPENDED IN
THE ATMOSPHERE. AN EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, CONTRIBUTING TO WARMER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT, A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT TODAY FROM 10 AM THROUGH 5 PM, AND ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE COMING DAYS.
THE COMBINATION OF SAHARAN DUST AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE HEALTH CONCERNS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY
CONDITIONS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW RECOMMENDATIONS FROM HEALTH
OFFICIALS DUE TO REDUCED AIR QUALITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DUST
PARTICLES. IN ADDITION, RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE SUN, STAY HYDRATED, AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN SHADED OR AIR-CONDITIONED AREAS, AS HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE WARMEST HOURS OF
THE DAY.
DESPITE THE GENERALLY DRY AND HAZY PATTERN, PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, BRINGING A FEW PASSING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN ADDITION, LOCAL
EFFECTS, SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE, AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY ONWARD, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM AST MON JUN 8 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START RELATIVELY WET WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUES CAN REACH UP TO 1.9 INCHES (HIGH-END NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR) ACCORDING TO LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL RESULT IN INSTABILITY AS 500MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO -7 TO -9 C.
THIS CAN AID IN SHOWER AND T-STORM FORMATION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION (INCLUDING T-STORMS)
SHOULD CONCENTRATE OVER INTERIOR AND W-NW PUERTO RICO. LINES OF
SHOWERS CAN ALSO DEVELOP FROM EL YUNQUE AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS
ACTIVITY CAN RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER OVER ROADWAYS AND POORLY
DRAINED AREAS, ALONG WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING, GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING. GENERALLY DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO FILTER OVER
THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF
HIGHER MOISTURE ALSO FILTERING IN. HOWEVER, LIMITED FLOODING RISK IS
FORECAST AT LEAST ON FRIDAY. IN GENERAL PWAT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS ALSO LIMITED TO THE LOWER
LEVELS WITH DRIER MID-LEVELS. TROUGHINESS HOWEVER WILL ALSO PERSIST
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS TROUGHS CONTINUE TO LINGER NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS, HOWEVER BY THE WEEKEND SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE. IN GENERAL
PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO REACH WINDWARD SECTORS AT
TIMES WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS AIDING IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STEERED BY UP TO BREEZY EAST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW, AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. MORE HUMID
PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE THEN FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH PWAT VALUES POSSIBLY REACHING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
AND ULTIMATELY ENHANCING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIURNAL PATTERN.
SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD, CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE
CONCENTRATIONS CONTINUING TO REACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY,
PERSISTING, ALBEIT GRADUALLY DECREASING IN CONCENTRATIONS,
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE PERIOD. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS AND
EVENTUALLY REACHING BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD, STAY TUNED FOR MORE
UPDATES. 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL,
PROMPTING A POSSIBLE LIMITED TO ELEVATED HEAT RISK EACH LATE MORNING
TO AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES CAN REACH AND EXCEED 100 DEGREES F
TOWARDS HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT URBAN AND LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS
OF THE ISLANDS, PARTICULARLY TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 AM AST MON JUN 8 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. HZ ASSOCIATED WITH
SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES WILL REDUCE VIS. EXPECT THE ESE WINDS
AROUND 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE AFTER 08/13Z.
VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO, AFFECTING MAINLY TJPS
AND TJBQ BETWEEN 08/18Z AND 08/23Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 148 AM AST MON JUN 8 2026
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MERGE
WITH A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN
WATERS OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS DUE
TO THE SEA BREEZE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AZORES AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. HAZY SKIES DUE TO MODERATE CONCENTRATIONS OF
SAHARAN DUST WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW TUESDAY.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 148 AM AST MON JUN 8 2026
A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST/SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF PR AND ST.
CROIX TODAY. MODERATE CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST WILL PERSIST
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW TUESDAY. AS WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH
THROUGH MIDWEEK, A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
BEACHES OF THE ISLANDS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS OFTEN OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF GROINS,
JETTIES, REEFS, AND PIERS. BEACH GOERS SHOULD ALWAYS EXERCISE
CAUTION REGARDLESS IF THE RISK IS LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 AM AST MON JUN 8 2026
EXPECT AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS
OF PUERTO RICO. FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 50% OR
EVEN LOWER, WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 13
AND 20 MPH, WITH STRONGER GUSTS. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT AND REMAIN HIGHLY RECEPTIVE TO IGNITION.
FIRE AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE IGNITION AND SPREAD
OF WILDFIRES.
FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ARE ISSUED WHEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE APPROACHING, BUT NOT MEETING OR EXCEEDING, RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR PRZ001>003-005-007-008-010>013.
VI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR VIZ001-002.
AM...NONE.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MMC
LONG TERM...MRR
MARINE/BEACH FORECAST...DSR
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