781
FXCA62 TJSJ 112017 AAA
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 PM AST SUN JAN 11 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 415 PM AST SUN JAN 11 2026
* A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG NORTH- AND EAST-
FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO, CULEBRA, AND AT TIMES THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS, TONIGHT AND INTO THE WORKWEEK. A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
STRENGTHENING WINDS INCREASE WIND- DRIVEN HAZARDS AND A LONG-
PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL BUILDS, LEADING TO MORE DANGEROUS MARINE
AND SURF CONDITIONS.
* A TYPICAL TRADE-WIND PATTERN WILL BRING PASSING SHOWERS TO
WINDWARD AND COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS, MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING, WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED, THOUGH ISOLATED PONDING
IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS REMAINS POSSIBLE.
* COMFORTABLE TO NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, WITH
COOLER NIGHTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM AST SUN JAN 11 2026
A PATCH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND PRODUCING PASSING SHOWERS WITH PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RADAR-ESTIMATED TOTALS
PEAKED AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN VIEQUES,
THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA, AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF PUERTO
RICO. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH, WITH
SEA-BREEZE VARIATIONS AND BRIEF GUSTY CONDITIONS NEAR PASSING
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WHERE CLOUD COVER PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, TO
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AS A SHALLOW
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION, REINFORCING A
TYPICAL TRADE-WIND PATTERN. COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL SUPPORT PASSING TRADE-WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AND EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS, WHILE ALSO ALLOWING COOLER-THAN-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE IN, WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY DROPPING INTO THE
LOW 50S ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND MID-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ITS WAKE, DRIER AIR ALOFT AND GRADUAL MID-
LEVEL WARMING WILL ALLOW A TRADE-WIND CAP TO REESTABLISH, KEEPING
MOISTURE LARGELY BELOW 700 MB. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
SHALLOW AND FAST-MOVING WITH GENERALLY LOW RAINFALL RATES AND
MINIMAL IMPACTS; NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. A LOW CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EXISTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM AND VARIABLE OVER LAND, WITH BRIEF GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR
PASSING SHOWERS.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY,
PROMOTING INCREASINGLY STABLE CONDITIONS, BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST
LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. A PREVAILING
TRADE-WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST, WITH EASTERLY WINDS BRIEFLY
BACKING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN VEERING BACK
TO EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY. SHALLOW MOISTURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES WILL SUPPORT PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY-MORNING HOURS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS, WHILE
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL FAVOR LIMITED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED AT TIMES
MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, COINCIDING WITH
PERIODS OF HIGHER PWAT; HOWEVER, OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD,
REACHING WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
REINFORCING A STABLE PATTERN AND LIMITING CONVECTION. COOLER-THAN-
NORMAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WINDS SHIFT MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTHWARD. WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED, THOUGH ISOLATED PONDING REMAINS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM AST SUN JAN 11 2026
DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, A DEEP-LAYER MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES, WHILE A WEAK MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.9 INCHES, NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH PEAK MOISTURE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION, WHILE A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MAY ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY, SUPPORTING A WETTER PATTERN AROUND FRIDAY AND AGAIN
NEXT SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, FRIDAY APPEARS TO PRESENT THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL, WITH A LIMITED FLOOD RISK MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL, WITH
500 MB TEMPERATURES DECREASING FROM NEAR -5 DEGREES C ON WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND -8 DEGREES C BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 209 PM AST SUN JAN 11 2026
AFTER A SHOWERY AM, VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 24 HRS.
HOWEVER, OCNL -SHRA/SHRA WILL AFFECT MOST TERMINALS, WITH LTD/NO
WX IMPACTS AT TJPS O/N AND TJBQ DURING THE AM HRS. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS PSBL IN HEAVIER SHRA. TSRA/-TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
MAINLY VCNTY TJBQ/TJPS BTWN 16–22Z. SFC WINDS NE 10–14 KT,
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 4–8 KT OR LGT/VRB O/N AT SOME SITES, THEN
RETURNING NE/E 10–15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS, ENHANCED BY SEA-
BREEZE EFFECTS AFT 12/13Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 PM AST SUN JAN 11 2026
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE WEEK, SUPPORTING A TRADE-WIND
SHOWER PATTERN. A SMALL NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING, FOLLOWED BY
THE ARRIVAL OF A LARGER NORTHERLY SWELL INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AND NEAR
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO COMBINED
WIND AND SWELL ACTION. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING
THE FORECAST.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 209 PM AST SUN JAN 11 2026
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO, AS WELL AS CULEBRA,
WITH BREAKING WAVES AROUND 4 FEET. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH THE MODERATE RISK
EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWESTERN BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON MONDAY. A MODERATE RISK MEANS THAT LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SURF ZONE.
A LOW RISK WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN, MORE PROTECTED BEACHES;
HOWEVER, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CAN STILL OCCUR NEAR GROINS,
JETTIES, REEFS, AND PIERS, EVEN WHEN THE OVERALL RISK IS LOW. FOR
MORE LOCATION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION, CONTINUE TO MONITOR
WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/SJU.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, SURF CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO RETURN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 PM AST SUN JAN 11 2026
RECENT WETTING RAINS HAVE PROVIDED TEMPORARY RELIEF ACROSS
SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO, PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL
PLAINS; HOWEVER, LONGER-TERM DRYNESS AND RAINFALL DEFICITS
PERSIST. WHILE KBDI VALUES HAVE DECREASED AT SOME SITES, FUELS
REMAIN LOCALLY ELEVATED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO
AND VIEQUES, AND ISOLATED WILDFIRE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE
DETECTED BY SATELLITE. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT A SHIFT TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
BY MIDWEEK WILL FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS, WITH POCKETS OF BELOW-
NORMAL MOISTURE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK FIRE WEATHER HOURS. ALTHOUGH
EARLY MORNING RAINFALL MAY HELP DELAY FIRE POTENTIAL ON SOME
DAYS, LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER REMAINS, WARRANTING CONTINUED
MONITORING.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
ICP/MMC
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