095
FXCA62 TJSJ 230707
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 AM AST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 244 AM AST MON FEB 23 2026
* SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PROMOTE WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY.
* RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH
A LIMITED TO ELEVATED FLOOD THREAT.
* A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BRING HAZARDOUS SEAS,
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
* ACROSS THE USVI, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
THE MID-TO UPPER-80S ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM AST MON FEB 23 2026
FOR TODAY, EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS A LOW-TO MID-
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE A NEAR-NORMAL TO DRIER-THAN-NORMAL AIRMASS, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING JUST AROUND 1.25 INCHES OR
LOWER. CONSEQUENTLY, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY LIMITED ONCE
AGAIN, CONSISTING MOSTLY OF A FEW PASSING MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE USVI AND EASTERN PR, AND MINIMAL, AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHWESTERN PR. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE FROM THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT WARMER-THAN-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED STARTING
TUESDAY AS A COL AREA AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. A SHARP SURGE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED, DRIVING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LOWER 500 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -8.5C,
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SUPPORTING INCREASED CLOUDINESS, HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND CENTRAL PR, WHERE THE FLOOD
THREAT WILL BE ELEVATED. ACROSS THE USVI, HEAVY DOWNPOURS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT TIMES, AND A LIMITED FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED
THERE.
SIMILAR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CARRY OVER INTO WEDNESDAY, AS
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT, DESPITE A BRIEF EARLY-DAY
DIP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND 1.40 INCHES, MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES BY MIDDAY.
WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING RELATIVELY COOL AT AROUND -8C
AND MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY PEAKING AGAIN, REACHING NEAR 60%
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER AND UP TO 80% IN THE 850-700MB LAYER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, AND MAINLY ACROSS PR, AS DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE USVI.
LONG TERM(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM AST MON FEB 23 2026
A TRANSITION FROM WET, UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE ISLANDS,
PROMOTING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME, PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING APPROXIMATELY 1.50 INCHES.
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THIS STRENGTHENING WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. UNDER THIS REGIME, THE TRADE WINDS WILL CARRY
QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD, A MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN, PROMOTING DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. FROM SATURDAY ONWARD, PWAT VALUES
WILL DROP BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL TO AROUND 0.80 INCHES,
SUPPORTING A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES AT THE 925 MB LEVEL WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES EACH DAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 244 AM AST MON FEB 23 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT WITH STRONGER GUSTS AFTER 23/13Z.
AT TJBQ, A NORTHERLY SEA BREEZE VARIATION IS EXPECTED FROM
23/16-22Z, AS WELL AS POSSIBLE TEMPO MVFR CONDS DUE TO -SHRA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 AM AST MON FEB 23 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE GOOD SIDE DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THIS MAIN FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS; HOWEVER, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY VEER
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
PRESENT ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHWEST, INCREASED MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DETERIORATING MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
LONG-PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS ENERGY WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDITIONS AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8 FEET THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.
BEACH FORECAST
ISSUED AT 244 AM AST MON FEB 23 2026
FOR TODAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN, EXPOSED LOCAL BEACHES OF PUERTO
RICO AND ST. THOMAS. FOR THE REST OF THE LOCAL EXPOSED COASTAL
AREAS, INCLUDING VIEQUES, THE RISK WILL REMAIN LOW. A NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY LONG-PERIOD SWELL WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS,
RESULTING IN DETERIORATED COASTAL CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. EXPECT LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, AND HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL NORTH-EXPOSED BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO, THE
WESTERN COAST, CULEBRA, AND ST. THOMAS. THEREFORE, DURING THIS
PERIOD, BEACHGOERS AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS ARE URGED TO STAY
OUT OF THE WATER, CONTINUE MONITORING FORECAST UPDATES, AND FOLLOW
ALL LOCAL ADVISORIES, WARNINGS, AND LIFEGUARD AND OFFICIAL
GUIDANCE. FOR MORE SPECIFIC LOCATION INFORMATION, VISIT:
WEATHER.GOV/BEACH/SJU.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM....LIS
AVIATION...DSR
BEACH/MARINE...GRS
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