448
FNUS73 KUNR 170102
FWSUNR
SPOT FORECAST FOR FALSE BOTTOM CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
702 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1900 MDT ON AUGUST 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA WILL PUSH THUNDERSTORMS
EASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING. WHILE THE BULK OF STORMS WILL STAY
EAST OF THE FIRE, THERE STILL MAY BE A SHOWER OR STORM THAT
AFFECTS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DRY WEATHER IS
WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THEN CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN LATE MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS AGAIN RETURN FOR TUESDAY AS THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 TO 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH EARLY
IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........26 17 14 16 18 14 15 20 26 21 19
WEATHER COV.....CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW
TSTM COV........CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............72 68 66 65 64 63 62 62 62 61 61
RH..............59 70 75 76 75 72 75 72 72 72 72
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 12 10 10 12 10 12 12 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.E SE S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 10
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9400 TO 9900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 15
TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........21 36 22 20 17 20 38 38 38 35 35 34
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............62 64 68 73 76 78 80 81 81 82 82 81
RH..............70 65 59 51 46 42 39 37 35 34 34 35
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW W NW NW NW N N NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 14 16 18 17 18 18 18 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.8 2.2 3.9 5.7 7.4 8.2 9.0 9.9 8.6 7.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW W W W W W W W W W NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 10 13 14 15 16 17 17 16 15
MONDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................25 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 TO 900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........55 62 58 64 66 60 61 70 64 48 56 54
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............78 74 71 68 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 60
RH..............39 44 51 57 63 65 67 70 72 75 75 75
20 FT WIND DIR..N N E S S S S SW SW S SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 5 5 2
20 FT WIND GUST.16 15 13 12 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.2 4.3 2.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW W SW S S S S S SW SW SW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 12 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MORNING,
THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 16 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 TO 8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........63 57 59 62 64 67 70 75 80 85 79 73
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
TEMP............60 61 63 67 70 72 74 76 78 79 78 76
RH..............75 75 75 68 63 59 53 48 43 41 42 45
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW W NW NW N N N N N NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 2 2 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 8
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 8 8 10 12 14 15 15 16 16 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.9 4.2 5.6 6.4 7.2 8.0 6.4 4.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 8 9 9 10 12 13 14 14 14 14
FORECASTER...13
REQUESTED BY...KEIFER HUNTLEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619815.0/UNR
.DELDT 08/16/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL KEIFER.HUNTLEY@USDA.GOV
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