586
FNUS73 KUNR 062129
FWSUNR
SPOT FORECAST FOR SCHENK RX UNIT 4...U.S. FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
329 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1530 MDT ON OCTOBER 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. TODAY,
HIGH TEMP OF 79-81F AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 14 TO 16 PERCENT
THROUGH 1700. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE EXPOSED SLOPES (20 FOOT)
7 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 MPH THROUGH 1700.
RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE POOR AGAIN, PEAKING AROUND 39 TO 43
PERCENT WITH TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. COOLER WEDNESDAY (HIGH 75F)
WITH MINIMUM RH AROUND 18 TO 21 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
AROUND 4 TO 9 MPH.
CURRENT OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY: OVERNIGHT/MORNING RH WILL BE
BETTER, RECOVERING TO AROUND 52 TO 55 PERCENT, AFTERNOON HIGH
70-73F, MINRH 24 TO 28 PERCENT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH
SOUTHERLY (20 FOOT) WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH. (THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC WINDS
ARE SOUTHEASTERLY, HOWEVER THEY ARE LIGHTER ON THIS MODEL RUN,
CAUSING WINDS OVER THE SPOT LOCATION TO BE MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
LESS CHANCE FOR THAT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO AFFECT THE LOCATION)
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-16 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH ON EXPOSED
UPPER SLOPES.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 TO 8900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.
TIME (MDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........17 4 3
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0
TEMP............78 80 78
RH..............14 15 17
20 FT WIND DIR..W W N
20 FT WIND SPD..10 9 8
20 FT WIND GUST.17 18 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...8.9 4.8 3.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 17 16
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........38-42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EXPOSED UPPER SLOPES: NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN FLOWS IN SHELTERED AREAS
AND LOWER SLOPES.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 TO 900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........3 1 4 4 3 2 3 5 6 2 4 5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............71 66 63 60 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 53
RH..............23 27 30 33 34 34 35 37 38 38 39 39
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N NE NE NE N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.14 12 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 9 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW N NE NE NE N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 13 12 10 9 7 6 6 7 8 8 8
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS 3 TO 8 MPH EARLY, BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 1000 4 TO 9 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 16 MPH THROUGH PEAK HEATING ON EXPOSED
AREAS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 TO 6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........12 23 18 11 7 15 9 11 16 17 16 11
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............52 52 55 61 65 69 70 72 73 75 74 73
RH..............41 41 40 33 28 24 23 23 20 18 19 21
20 FT WIND DIR..N N NE N W SW SW SW SW W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..5 3 3 3 3 5 6 6 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.9 8 7 7 8 9 12 13 14 15 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.7 2.6 3.5 4.5 5.4 6.3 4.4 2.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N NW W SW SW SW W SW SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 6 6 7 9 12 13 14 14 13 12
FORECASTER...SE
REQUESTED BY...JOSH BEHLINGS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623128.3/UNR
.DELDT 10/06/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JOSHUA.BEHLINGS@USDA.GOV,HAYDEN.HOELSCHER@USDA.GOV,JASON.RODRIGUEZ2@USDA.GOV
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