199
FNUS73 KUNR 031847
FWSUNR
SPOT FORECAST FOR MT. RUSHMORE FIREWORKS...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1247 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0500 MDT ON JULY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OR NEAR MOUNT RUSHMORE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE BETWEEN NOON AND 2PM MDT TODAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THEN REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM MDT. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING, LARGE HAIL (UP TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE), AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH 80 DEGREES, AS WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM UTAH AND COLORADO ALSO
CREATES HAZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE SMOKE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ALOFT,
NOT NEAR THE GROUND.
LOOKING AHEAD, DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AGAIN SATURDAY), WITH SUNDAY PERHAPS
STAYING DRY. HOWEVER, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTER
SUNDAY, REACHING THE MID-80S.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................35 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 TO 6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
TIME (MDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........50 42 54 55
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC LKY LKY LKY
CWR.............30 30 30 30
TEMP............70 72 73 72
RH..............49 46 45 46
20 FT WIND DIR..E NE NE N
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.10 9 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.5 6.8 4.3 2.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 14 15 17
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 13 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING,
THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
12 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 TO 900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10
MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........76 49 52 58 48 36 18 6 8 27 35 42
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............71 70 67 65 64 62 61 60 59 60 59 60
RH..............47 51 56 60 63 67 70 72 72 67 67 64
20 FT WIND DIR..N NW NW SW SW W W W W NW W W
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.18 16 15 13 13 12 10 10 10 10 9 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N NW NW NW W W W NW NW NW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 15 13 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8
INDEPENDENCE DAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 10
MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 TO 5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........48 28 11 19 14 41 37 54 72 86 69 63
WEATHER COV..... SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
CWR.............30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
TEMP............60 64 70 74 77 78 78 79 77 76 77 76
RH..............64 60 51 44 42 40 40 39 40 42 40 40
20 FT WIND DIR..W W NW E E E E E E E NE E
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 12 14 15 10 9 9 9 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.5 4.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 4.8 3.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W SW SW S S SE SE E NE E SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 12 12 12 10
SATURDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 12 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 TO 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........45 36 29 19 16 9 16 26 20 13 12 11
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............76 75 73 68 66 64 63 62 62 62 61 63
RH..............40 41 44 53 56 60 65 67 65 62 62 58
20 FT WIND DIR..E E SE SE S SW SW SW SW SW SW W
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.9 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.6 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 6 6 8 10 13 14 15 15 14 13
FORECASTER...DH
REQUESTED BY...ANDY THORSTENSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2616698.0/UNR
.DELDT 07/03/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ANDY_THORSTENSON@NPS.GOV,OWEN_MURNANE@NPS.GOV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page