844
FNUS73 KUNR 211348
FWSUNR
SPOT FORECAST FOR ANTIHORSE ALPHA...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
748 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0000 MDT ON OCTOBER 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MAX HUMIDITIES OF AROUND 76%
ATTAINED BY 7 AM. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 MPH ON RIDGE TOPS AND UNSHELTERED AREAS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
BECOMING LIGHT AND PRIMARILY TERRAIN DOMINATED BEFORE
10 AM AS AN INVERSION SETS UP OVER THE FIRE SITE. AFTER 10 AM,
THE INVERSION BREAKS AND WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
20 MPH (ESPECIALLY OVER UNSHELTERED AREAS AND ALONG RIDGE TOPS)
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ALL NIGHT THURSDAY WITH
LOWS DROPPING TO 50. GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERY TO AROUND 80% BY 7 AM.
WARM ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70 AND HUMIDITIES DROPPING
TO 35 TO 40% IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. EXPECTING WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
35 MPH ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND UNSHELTERED AREAS. THIS FRONT WON'T
IMPACT THE FIRE SITE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING (AROUND 10 PM TO
MIDNIGHT) WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING TO 35 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS (15-20%) OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH WETTING
RAINS NOT EXPECTED.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
MAX HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 22 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 TO 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........25 20 15 13 25 22
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............52 52 52 50 50 50
RH..............63 61 63 68 71 71
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 9 9 8 7
20 FT WIND GUST.22 21 20 18 16 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.21 20 18 16 15 13
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). INCREASING CLOUD COVER
IN THE AFTERNOON (BECOMING 50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 TO 50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH 10 AM.
AFTER 10 AM, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 TO 3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........36 53 37 18 10 11 18 25 25 58 59 59
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............49 47 49 52 59 61 64 65 67 69 67 64
RH..............71 76 74 71 57 53 50 48 48 45 48 50
20 FT WIND DIR..E SE E SE S SW SW SW SW SW S S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 3 5 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 6
20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 10 10 12 15 17 18 18 20 18 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.5 2.4 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 2.8 1.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE S S SW SW SW SW SW S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 9 8 9 10 13 15 16 17 16 15 13
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 18 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 TO 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........72 87 72 57 54 50 47 50 54 57 55 54
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............61 57 57 58 58 58 57 56 55 54 53 52
RH..............53 62 59 57 57 60 64 69 72 74 77 77
20 FT WIND DIR..S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7
20 FT WIND GUST.13 15 17 18 18 17 16 16 16 16 15 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S SE SE SE S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 14 16 16 15 14 14 15 15 14 13
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 TO 40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 13
MPH BEFORE 10 AM. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH AFTER 10 AM.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 TO 5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 20
TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING
TO AROUND 30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD INCREASING TO VERY GOOD LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........52 54 57 59 53 46 40 35 30 25 24 24
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............52 52 54 56 59 62 64 66 70 68 65 62
RH..............77 80 77 72 62 54 48 43 37 35 37 38
20 FT WIND DIR..SE S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW W
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 5 5 7 9 12 14 16 17 17 16
20 FT WIND GUST.13 12 10 12 15 20 24 28 31 33 33 33
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.6 2.7 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.4 4.2 2.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 9 9 9 13 17 22 25 29 30 30 30
FORECASTER...EW
REQUESTED BY...MADISON TOLLEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2624078.1/UNR
.DELDT 10/21/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MADISON.TOLLEY@USDA.GOV
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