893
FNUS73 KUNR 180213
FWSUNR
SPOT FORECAST FOR CARROLL CREEK...GREAT PLAINS DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
813 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 2000 MDT ON AUGUST 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FIRE WILL BE CHANCES OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED THIS
EVENING TO ACCURATELY REFLECT WHAT WE ARE SEEING ON RADAR, BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS FOR STORM CHANCES TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THERE REMAINS PERHAPS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF A NEARBY
SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT, WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS
AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THE RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH INITIATION OVER THE
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS EXPECTED AS EARLY AS ABOUT 2 PM. GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND HAIL WILL ALL BE HAZARDS NEAR/UNDER STORM CORES.
REST OF TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE WINDS ABOUT 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
10 MPH, BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORM.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 TO 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........65 73 66 61 44 46 42 44 46 32
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............70 68 66 64 61 60 59 58 57 55
RH..............45 50 56 63 72 72 75 77 77 80
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.11 10 9 10 11 10 9 9 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW N N N NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 12 13 12 10 9 9 8
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER ABOUT 2 PM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 12 MPH IN THE MORNING, SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 17 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 TO 7300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........45 46 37 57 59 61 33 43 51 63 66 73
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20
TEMP............55 58 63 67 70 72 73 73 73 74 74 72
RH..............77 69 62 54 46 41 40 39 40 40 41 46
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW W W W W W N NE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 9 10 10 13 15 16 16 17 17 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 0.7 1.7 3.7 5.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 5.3 3.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW W W W W W W NW NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 7 8 10 14 16 15 14 13 13 13
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 TO 900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
LATE IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........71 68 71 63 55 64 69 75 67 36 53 57
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
TEMP............68 65 62 60 59 58 58 57 56 55 53 53
RH..............55 63 70 75 75 77 77 77 80 83 89 89
20 FT WIND DIR..E NE E NE N NW W W W NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.15 13 12 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.E NE N N N W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 10 9 8 9 10 12 12 12 10 10 10
FORECASTER...KSMITH
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL SMITS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619895.0/UNR
.DELDT 08/17/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL SDGPC@FIRENET.GOV
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