379
FNUS73 KUNR 231147
FWSUNR
SPOT FORECAST FOR ANTIHORSE ALPHA...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
547 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON OCTOBER 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
FOR THE REQUESTED FORECAST PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT, MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
INCLUDING THE BURN AREA, WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
SUPPORTS A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS MAY HOLD ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FOCUSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS. MODEL SPREAD IS CURRENTLY SIGNIFICANT OVER THE BURN,
RANGING FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID TO AS
MUCH AS 0.40", LEADING TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT MORE THAN AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION AT ANY GIVEN TIME. A SECOND, QUICK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE A BETTER SIGNAL FOR
DRYING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE EVENING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 18
MPH.
CWR.................35 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 TO 1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........90 91 92 93 92 90 89 89 88 88 87 86
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....SN RN RN RN RN RN RN RS SN SN SN SN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............35 35 35 35 35 35 30 30 30 30 30 30
TEMP............34 34 34 34 34 35 35 34 33 32 32 33
RH..............92 96 96 100 100 96 96 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.18 17 17 16 15 14 13 13 12 12 12 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E SE SE SE E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 15 15 14 13 12 12 10 10 9 9 9
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
12 MPH IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 TO 800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........85 85 85 85 84 83 82 80 77 75 74 74
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
CWR.............30 30 30 30 30 30 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............34 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 40 41 40 38
RH..............100 100 100 100 100 96 96 92 92 89 89 92
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 12 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 8 8 8 8
FORECASTER...KSMITH
REQUESTED BY...MADISON TOLLEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2624394.0/UNR
.DELDT 10/23/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MADISON.TOLLEY@USDA.GOV
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