085
FXUS63 KFSD 222345
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A RECORD WARM SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES RUNNING 40+
DEGREES COLDER ON SUNDAY, WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
INTO MONDAY.
- SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS OF A TRACE TO HUNDREDTH
FAVORED.
- FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO RISE TO ELEVATED LEVELS WEST OF I-29
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MORE LIMITED FIRE DANGER ON TUESDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LIKELY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 40 MPH WINDS.
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND,
AS TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE. PROBABILITIES
FOR MORE THAN 0.10" OF RAIN REMAIN LESS THAN 20% THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: MID-LVL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL TAKE THE VERY LIGHT SNOW/RAIN EASTWARD WITH IT. HOWEVER,
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL HAVE A PROFOUND
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY MIX
OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, BUT ACCORDING TO SOME HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, MAY STALL LATER THIS EVENING OVER SW MINNESOTA
AND NW IOWA.
TONIGHT: IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT CLOUDS, THEN A FAIRLY SHARP
EVENING FALL IN TEMPERATURES MAY TAKE PLACE. HAVE FAVORED LOWER
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. AFTER MIDNIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER, SIGNALING A
STABILIZATION OR REVERSAL OF THE DIURNAL DROP IN THOSE AREAS.
MONDAY: A COUPLE MINOR CONCERNS ON MONDAY, FOCUSED ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING SPRINKLE AND SHOWER POTENTIAL, ALONG WITH
INCREASING FIRE DANGER RISKS. BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE PLAINS AS MID-LVL
HEIGHTS GROW. TOWARDS THE LOW-LVLS, LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL
INDUCE A BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND IN AREAS WEST OF I-29 BY MID-DAY. AN
INCREASE IN MID AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION, WITH THIS AREA MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE MODEL QPF SHOWS HIT OR MISS TOTALS, A DEEPER
LOOK AT THE METEOROLOGY SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LVL LIFT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH WEAK MID-LVL DPVA TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE
VARIABILITY IN TOP-DOWN SATURATION, WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR
COLUMN SATURATION AS ECHOS CROSS I-29 AND MOVE INTO MN/IA
TOWARDS THE EVENING. ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A 40%+ CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN, SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AT LEAST GET A MENTION
OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER IS CONCERNED, SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR 25 TO 30+ MPH WIND GUSTS TO FORM WEST OF I-29 IN THE AFTERNOON
AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE TO 800 MB. DETERMINISTIC NBM SEEMS TO BE
ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE, SO HAVE BLENDED WINDS UPWARDS A FEW
MPH. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO LOWER AT PEAK HEATING WITH RH FALLING
NEAR 30% IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT "CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER RISKS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE GFDI "VERY HIGH" CATEGORY.
TUESDAY: A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP FROM THE BLACK HILLS
REGION INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD BY TUESDAY, KEEPING WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING NORTHWARD. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN
CLIMB NEAR THE 20-25 MPH MARK IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. LOW-LVL WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER ARE LIGHTER THAN MONDAY, SO HIGH END GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE
LOWER. THAT SAID, WITH RH VALUE AGAIN NEAR 30 PERCENT, FIRE DANGER
WILL APPROACH ELEVATED LEVELS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90.
WEDNESDAY: THAT STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS IN THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LVL AIRMASS REMAIN VERY
WARM, AND DRY GROUND FAVORS TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO 70S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 80 DEGREES ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER ONCE AGAIN.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO POINT
TOWARDS ANOTHER GUSTY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY. A WARM OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO FALLING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. ECE/GEFS
BOTH INDICATE 40%_ PROBABILITIES FOR THESE HIGHER WIND GUSTS,
WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS PUSHING EVEN HIGHER GUSTS. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE DIURNAL TRENDS IN BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WHICH IF ALIGN UP CORRECTLY,
COULD POSE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WHILE A LOW CHANCE, A FEW PASSING
SPRINKLES COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT GIVEN STRONGEST
MID-LVL DPVA WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE CWA. TEMPERATURES FALL
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: THE ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE RIDE OF THE WEEK
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER A BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY, WE'RE
ALREADY SEEING SIGNS THAT MID-LVL RIDGING WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHIFT WILL PUSH BROAD WARM ADVECTION THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND LEAD TO RISING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS THE 60S AND
70S. AT THIS TIME, LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A BANK OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, LEAVING VFR CEILINGS WEST OF I-29 AND MVFR TO THE EAST.
THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING, BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE. GOOD MIXING WILL RESULT IN
GUSTS BETWEEN 22-32 KTS ALONG AND WEST OF I-29. HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 35 KTS. TO THE
EAST OF I-29 GUSTS WILL BE 20 KTS OR LESS. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IN ADDITION TO BREEZY WINDS THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<35%) OF
SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND
NOON ON MONDAY. SHOWERS PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY WITH SHOWERS IS THE DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER PRESENT. IT MAY
BE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE AND WORK TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS OF 40 KTS. SHOULD THE DRY LAYER BE
OVERCOME LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, A TRACE TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH. SHOWERS PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...AJP
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