331
FXUS63 KFSD 171741
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1141 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILL VALUES WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA WILL PERIODICALLY REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY TO A MILE OR TWO THIS MORNING.
- A STRONG, COMPACT WAVE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF, NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES AND
WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE WINDS AND
LOW TO MODERATE IN THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
- VERY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
WARM ADVECTION WILL WRAP AROUND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA THIS MORNING. WHILE AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH,
THE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO A MILE OR TWO AT TIMES, SO SOME
SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH SLOWLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND STRONG WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE 10 BELOW
TO 20 BELOW ZERO. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY FALL TO AROUND 25
BELOW ZERO EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE NEXT JET MAX AND WAVE
WILL DROP SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF WIND AND SNOW TO THE AREA. AN INITIAL BAND
OF WARM ADVECTIVE SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT MAY
BE FIGHTING SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A COMPACT WAVE WILL
DROP SOUTH ROUGHLY THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR SUNDAY
MORNING AND BRING A LOWERING DGZ AS WELL AS A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WHICH COULD BRING THROUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF DECREASED VISIBILITIES IN
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IF THE SNOW IS BRIEFLY HEAVY ENOUGH
WHILE WINDS ARE LIKELY GUSTING AROUND 50 MPH. THE MAIN FACTOR
FIGHTING THIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY MILD TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S AS THIS WAVE DIVES SOUTH, WHICH COULD LIMIT
HOW BLOWABLE TO SNOW WILL BE.
BEHIND THIS SUNDAY WAVE TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP, AND THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WIND
CHILL VALUES TO 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO.
MONDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE A COLDER DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING SMALL
CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE IN
SOUTHWEST MN.
AFTER THIS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TAP FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ONLY ALLOWS VERY
SHORT BURSTS OF WARM ADVECTION. THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE
BRINGING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SO FAR OUT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
LOW LEVEL STRATUS PERSISTS LATE THIS MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. CEILINGS ARE SITTING AT MVFR LEVELS BUT VISIBILITIES
HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR THRESHOLDS. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO FALLING
ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. SHOULD SEE CHANCES FOR SNOW EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE END OVER THE COMING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS PUSHES
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL LEAVE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS THOUGH WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME AS WELL. SOME BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THAT
HAVE A DEEPER SNOWPACK.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WIND IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE WINDS TURN BACK TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
RESTRENGTHEN. GUSTS UP TO 30-40+ KNOTS IS EXPECTED, STRONGEST WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL ALSO RETURN BUT LIKE
YESTERDAY, THESE SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO BE NARROW AND RESULT IN QUICK
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG WINDS WILL FINISH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...MEYERS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page