855
FXUS63 KFSD 132326
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
626 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO 80S EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 700 MB AND MODERATE LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS
LAYER WILL LEAD TO CAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 500-1000 J.KG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF A SIOUX CITY TO STORM LAKE LINE. WITH ELEVATED SHEAR VALUES
SITTING AROUND 40-50 KNOTS AN ISOLATED STRONGER UPDRAFT OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND NICKELS THE MAIN
THREAT. BROAD TROUGHINESS WILL PUSH THIS MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, LEAVING BEHIND
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT.
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP
COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. DECENT
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO 250 TO 500 J/KG CAPE AND WITH A VERY
DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER CREATING A FAIRLY CLASSIC INVERTED V SOUNDING,
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BRING SOME VERY
STRONG ELEVATED SHEAR INTO THE AREA SO IT WILL BE A MATTER OF TIMING
AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THAT THIS PATTERN CAN SUPPORT TO BRING A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL
BE ON THE LOW SIDE, BUT IF WE CAN SOMEHOW GET 1500 J/KG OR SO WITH
THIS SHEAR WE WOULD SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER, SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT
FOR.
CONFIDENCE ON ANY DETAILS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY A LITTLE LOWER AS
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. ANY WAVE WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AHEAD AND COOLER BEHIND, SO THAT WILL DETERMINE A LOT
AND WILL NEED TO WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET BECOMING SUSTAINED AT 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS 12-17 KTS. WINDS
REMAIN NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 17-21 KTS ARE EXPECTED.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...AJP
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