906
FXUS63 KFSD 051905
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
205 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING,
MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW; HOWEVER, WEAK FUNNELS OR A LANDSPOUT MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY (WEST OF JAMES
RIVER VALLEY) AND MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SOME STRONGER STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WARMING SOME BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
REST OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAKER
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNSUBSTANTIAL DCAPE
KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW BUT LIGHTNING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN
FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE OTHER THING WE'VE BEEN
MONITORING IS A GOOD OVERLAP OF SURFACE VORTICITY AND 0-3 KM MLCAPE,
ALONG WITH NST PARAMETER VALUES OF 1-4 ALLOWING FOR SOME
POTENTIAL OF A WEAK FUNNEL CLOUD OR LANDSPOUT UNTIL CLOSER TO
THE SUNSET HOURS. THIS ATMOPHERIC POTENTIAL HAS BEEN CONFIRMED
WITH RECENT REPORTS IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
TONIGHT: PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT SOUTH OF THE HWY 20
CORRIDOR BY SUNSET WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER, LIGHT WINDS,
AND BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY: EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT A DECAYING MCS MAY TRY TO APPROACH
OUR WESTERN COVERAGE AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ALTHOUGH LIKELY WILL
ENCOUNTER DIFFICULTY MAKING IT MUCH PAST THE MO RIVER WITH A
LACK OF INSTABILITY. THIS MAY HOWEVER KEEP SOME SHOWER CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST NEAR/WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH A NORTHERLY WIND USHERING IN LOWER
DEWPOINTS, CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: FAIRLY ROBUST WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE OUR NEXT FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, PERHAPS FAVORING THE MO RIVER VALLEY
WHERE THE SHARPER THETA-E GRADIENT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO RESIDE. SPC
CURRENTLY DELINEATES MOST OF OUR COVERAGE AREA IN A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5
RISK.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MODELS AGREE THAT RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND SLIDES EAST BY MID WEEK. AGREEMENT THEN FADES
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THIS RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BE INTERRUPTED BY SOME
SORT OF WAVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. STILL TIME TO REFINE THE DETAILS
SO JUST LOWER END CHANCE LEVEL (30-40%) STORM CHANCES RIGHT NOW BUT
THIS WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
PER ML AND AI PROBABILITIES. WITHIN THE RIDGING, TEMPERATURES LIKELY
WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S, BEFORE RETREATING BEHIND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM, MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN MANY
AREAS ALTHOUGH SHOULD START TO SEE THESE EITHER SCATTER OUT OR
LIFT INTO THE LOW END VFR RANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WE WILL ALSO WATCH FOR ANY SHOWER/WEAKER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR/EAST OF I-29 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN AMBIGUOUS ON -TSRA
COVERAGE AND THUS IMPACT AT KFSD AND KSUX IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT
DID TRY TO TIME IN SOME MORE LIKELY PERIODS SHOULD IT OCCUR. ANY
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG BUT MAY HAVE SOME GUSTIER
AND MORE ERRATIC WINDS WITH THEM.
OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES BY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KALIN
AVIATION...KALIN
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