829
FXUS63 KFSD 020502
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1102 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MONDAY, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
- LIGHT SNOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD MONDAY EVENING AND LINGER
INTO TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN
1" MOST AREAS.
- TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING 7 DAY FORECAST
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 50 ON THURSDAY.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES REMAINS NEXT WEEKEND.
- AT THIS POINT, NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS IN THE UPCOMING 7 TO 10
DAY FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: STRATUS CONTINUES TO POUR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WARM DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE
HIGH PLAINS HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO
THE EVENING.
TONIGHT: STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT, THOUGH SOME BREAKS
MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOULD
CLOUDS LINGER, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO COOL THROUGH THE 20S
WITH THE WARMEST LOWS LIKELY ALONG THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS.
MONDAY: MID-LVL HEIGHTS RISE EARLY MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FAST
MOVING WAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL INDUCE MID-LVL LIFT FROM NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY THE EVENING. MID-LVL DRY AIR
WILL BE A BIT OF A PROBLEM AS THIS WAVE ARRIVES, BUT WE'LL STILL
STILL LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT, WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT ANY SNOW
THAT MOVES THROUGH WILL BE A DUSTING TO NO MORE THAN 1".
TUESDAY: BEHIND THIS WAVE, SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST, PUSHING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S OVER SW MINNESOTA TO THE LOWER 30S
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. DEPENDING ON WHERE LOW-LVL MOISTURE
LINGERS TUESDAY, WE COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, WITH THE FAVORED AREAS NEAR THE MISSOURI
RIVER.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: ANOTHER VERY WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE RISK FOR FLURRIES TO SPRINKLES AT
TIMES. THE STORY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE A SHARP WARMUP
THURSDAY AS MID- LVL RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD AND STRONG LOW-LVL
WARM ADVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY, AND
MINIMAL SNOW COVER WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S
TO 50S. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF 50+ DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR 100% ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE BUMPED UP NBM POPULATED TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE 75TH PERCENTILE. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY,
THOUGH A PASSING FRONT EARLY IN THE DAY WILL LIMIT THE CLIMB TO
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
NOT SO MUCH IN THE WAY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (THOSE
RISKS REMAIN LOW), BUT MORESO IN THE TEMPERATURES. THERE REMAINS
QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE EC/GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE ORIENTATION OF A LINGERING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US AND POTENTIAL RIDGING THAT COULD MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE NEARLY 35-40 DEGREE
SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE LREF, WITH A MAX IN THE
UPPER 50S AND THE LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE TEENS. THE
GEFS SEEMS TO BE ON AN ISLAND ALONE WITH MOST OF THE COLDEST
MEMBERS, WITH THE ECE/GEPS ALL IN THE HIGHER END OF THE SPREAD.
THE DETERMINISTIC NBM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WITH MEAN TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
MVFR STRATUS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD DUE TO A
LAYER OF STRATUS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO INDICATED THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR DAY
BREAK. IF FOG DEVELOPS IT WILL BE SCATTERED AND PATCHY IN NATURE, SO
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER IT.
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD A WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST, PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW. AS SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO LOW MVFR TO
IFR.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...AJP
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