769  
FXUS63 KFSD 290841  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
341 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- UNSETTLED WETTER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE  
FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER RISKS ARE  
LOW, BUT NON-ZERO RISKS FOR A FEW WEAK FUNNEL CLOUDS WITH  
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY (SOUTH-CENTRAL SD) AND  
SATURDAY (NORTHERN THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA).  
 
- AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
MODERATE (40-50%) CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH FOCUSED SOUTH OF  
I-90 AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORM CHANCES LINGER EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERE  
WEATHER RISKS GENERALLY REMAIN LOW, BUT MAY HAVE TO MONITOR  
TUESDAY FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.  
 
- BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH  
REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE COLDEST AIR WILL TRACK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025  
 
TODAY: MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH  
ATTENTION FOCUSED TOWARD A BROAD UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED  
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS THIS MORNING  
SHOWS THIS WAVE EVOLVING INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN  
SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE MID-UPPER LEVEL  
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH  
THE MORNING. IN AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY, MOISTURE  
LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ABOVE 12-15KFT AGL, SO RAINFALL WOULD BE  
TOUGH TO COME BY. WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER, THOUGH, MORE ROBUST  
MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT AGL MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS.  
INSTABILITY IS WEAK WITH NEAR-MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES, BUT  
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE  
WEATHER RISKS IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE LATEST RAP DOES SHOW  
ELEVATED VALUES FOR ENHANCED STRETCHING POTENTIAL IN SOUTH  
CENTRAL SD, SO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK FUNNEL IN THE DEVELOPING  
STAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEAST  
AND WHILE MODELS STILL VARY ON ITS EVENTUAL LOCATION, BROAD  
CONSENSUS PLACES IT SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA  
TO NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEBRASKA VICINITY BY SATURDAY INTO  
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXACT TRACK OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED  
SURFACE LOW WILL DICTATE WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN COULD  
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER, HI-RES ENSEMBLES  
(HREF/REFS) CURRENTLY PLACE HIGHER CHANCES (40-50%) OF 24-HOUR  
TOTALS EXCEEDING 1 INCH OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH  
DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY, THEN EXPANDING EAST DOWN THE  
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
NORTHEAST OF THIS HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD  
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH A DRIER EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW MORE PREVALENT  
AROUND A SURFACE HIGH IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THAT WILL NOT MEAN  
ZERO RAIN CHANCES AS WEAK INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED  
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. SIMILAR TO TODAY, A ZONE OF HIGHER  
ENHANCED STRETCHING POTENTIAL INDICATES A NON-ZERO RISK FOR A  
FEW FUNNELS WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS, WITH THE CURRENT FOCUS FOR  
THIS ACROSS NORTHERN THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST  
AREA. EXACT LOCATION OF THIS RISK WILL SIMILARLY DEPEND ON THE  
EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF  
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACTIVITY.  
 
SUNDAY-TUESDAY: THE WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MEANDER  
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND,  
BUT IT'S PROXIMITY WILL KEEP A MODERATE (40-60%) CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS AROUND INTO SUNDAY, WITH LESSER  
CHANCES LINGERING INTO LABOR DAY ITSELF. AGAIN, A LACK OF SHEAR  
AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SEVERE RISKS AT BAY.  
 
BY TUESDAY, WE'LL BE LOOKING NORTHWARD AT AN APPROACHING TROUGH  
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WHILE BOTH FEATURES WILL LIKELY STILL  
BE NORTH OF OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY, SOME SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING AN  
INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WHICH COULD  
BRING SOME INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT LACKING, DIFFICULT TO SAY  
WHETHER WE WILL HAVE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS, BUT THIS PERIOD  
DOES PRESENT TO GREATEST (ALBEIT STILL LOW) POTENTIAL OVER THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD  
THROUGH MINNESOTA, THOUGH SOME SOLUTIONS DRAG THE AXIS OF THE  
COLDER AIR FARTHER WEST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. DISCREPANCIES  
ARE RESULTING IN A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES BY THE  
END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH A 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE SPREAD  
EXCEEDING 10-13 DEGREES IN THE NBM BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  
COLDER SOLUTIONS KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR SOME AREAS BOTH DAYS,  
WHILE THE WARMER END OF THE SPECTRUM SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD 70S.  
NEEDLESS TO SAY, CONFIDENCE IN MID-LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES IS  
LOW, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL RETURN TO A DRIER  
PATTERN THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA  
WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER EARLY  
FRIDAY MORNING. NOTHING TOO HEAVY WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND  
THUNDER IS UNLIKELY, BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD A PROB30 GROUP  
FOR VFR SHOWERS AT KHON. THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE AND  
LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, CLOUD  
COVER WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. THINKING  
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AT KSUX FOR SOME  
FOG, BUT IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL  
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACTS  
AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE  
ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TONIGHT, PICKING UP OUT OF  
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...JH  
AVIATION...SAMET  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SD Page
The Nexlab IA Page
The Nexlab MN Page
The Nexlab NE Page Main Text Page