946
FXUS63 KFSD 300439
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1039 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.
- WIND CHILL VALUES ABOUT -15 TO -25 EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING,
COLDEST NORTH OF I-90.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT,
EARLIEST CENTRAL SD, LATEST SW MN AND NW IA. FOR NOW, AN INCH
OR MAYBE TWO IS POSSIBLE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN CENTRAL SD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. FORCING REMAINS WEAK BUT WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND A
DEEP DGZ, SURFACE TO ABOUT 700MB, A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE COLD AIR SETTLES SOUTH TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILL VALUES OF -15 TO -25 IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR NOW AN ADVISORY
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NEEDED, PLUS WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN
10 MPH WHICH WILL HELP A BIT.
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE, CANADIAN ENSEMBLE AND
GEFS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS LIQUID, SO STILL ANTICIPATE MOST LOCATIONS AT 2" OR
LESS. THE CANADIAN AND EC ARE A BIT HIGHER ON AMOUNTS. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TRENDS AS THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING
A MODERATELY STRONG, COMPACT WAVE WITH A BIT OF WEAK INSTABILITY
INTO CENTRAL SD THEN NE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LITTLE MIXED PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS PRETTY LOW
AS THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION ARE NOT OVERLY WELL AGREED UPON.
OTHERWISE, STILL ANTICIPATE A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PUSHING
CLOSER TO 0.15" OF LIQUID WHICH MIGHT MEAN 2-3", BUT IF THIS DOES
HAPPEN NO GREAT CONSENSUS ON WHERE.
ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES, MILDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE BACK
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S. SOME
LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BETTER CHANCE NEAR
AND EAST OF I-29.
THE SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE ONLY
MARGINALLY WELL AGREED UPON BUT WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW
AFTER THIS WEEKEND. WILL ONLY HAVE LOW TO MID RANGE CHANCES DUE TO
THE LOWER CONFIDENCE.
ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE ROCKIES. JUST WHERE THIS RIDGE SETS UP AND HOW SHARP IT IS WILL
PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. IF THE
RIDGE IS SHARP AND FARTHER WEST, WE WILL BE IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. IF THIS RIDGE CAN
FLATTEN A BIT IT WOULD PROMOTE A MORE MILD WESTERLY FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL WAIT AND SEE AS MODEL CONSENSUS
IS NOT THERE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
PARTS OF THE AREA WITH ONE OR TWO SITES SHOWING CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR LEVELS. LIGHT SNOW REMAINS ON TRACK TO SLIDE SOUTHWARDS THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM ALL TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT SNOW. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN MVFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS A
LINE OF MVFR STRATUS JUST BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THINK THIS MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. A STRAY FLURRY IS POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE STRATUS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FINISH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...MEYERS
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