295
FXUS63 KFSD 172302
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
602 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY BY DAYBREAK AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST, LEADING TO WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 OR 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONALLY MILD OVERNIGHT, ONLY DROPPING
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SIDED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS THURSDAY, REACHING THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS
REGION SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASED CLOUDS. WITH THE JET MAX NOSING
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF I-29.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
TERRAIN SUCH AS THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD FRIDAY MORNING AND TRACKS
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE WINDY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH. CONTINUED TO NUDGE
WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE USING CONSMOS. THE WELL
MIXED ENVIRONMENT, ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARMER AIR ALOFT, WILL BRING
ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS
WEEKEND. COLDER AIR SINKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS BREEZY THERE SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
RIDGING ALOFT REBUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX
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