209
FXUS63 KFSD 092330
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
530 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW VERY LIGHT FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
-A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY, REDUCING
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WIND GUSTS. GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES (35-60%) FOR SNOW ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. ACCUMULATION MOST LIKELY ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER COUNTIES OF A TRACE TO A HALF INCH.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY
AND INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
LOOKING ALOFT AT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WE CAN SEE A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WORK TO
WEAKLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER, A DEEP LAYER OF VERY
DRY AIR WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
GROUND AS A VORTICITY BAND WORKS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. A
FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT ELEVATION IN SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS FOR
TODAY LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE, IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE TEENS AND 20S.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND A
SURFACE COLD FRONT, AND BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS 15-20
MPH.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY, A STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AS WE MIX THROUGH THE 850 MB LAYER, TAPPING
INTO THE LLJ. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A
BAND OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL WORK TO REINFORCE THE COLD
FRONT, RESULTING IN A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, MOSTLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER. TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT, A TRACE TO AROUND A HALF AN
INCH IS POSSIBLE. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, COMBINED WITH
THE WINDS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. IF YOU
HAVE PLANS TO TRAVEL SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
20. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT
A STRONG PUSH OF WAA. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE 30S TO 40S. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DIURNALLY BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS BOTH
DAYS COMBINE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND RESULT IN ELEVATED GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER. WITH NO SNOW COVER, THE DRIED GRASSES AND CROPS WILL
EASILY CATCH AND CARRY FIRE. TUESDAY WILL BE AN EVEN HIGHER RISK DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S, AND WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30-35
MPH. PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACHING 45 MPH. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH IN THIS
AREA. SO, PLEASE USE CAUTION.
IN ADDITION ON TUESDAY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES (<25%) FOR RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14 IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SNOW REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DETAILS
VARY WIDELY AT THIS POINT, BUT IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS NOW IS A
GOOD TIME TO START TO PLAN FOR POSSIBLE WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS TAF PERIOD.
TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, STILL HAVE A BIT OF VIRGA
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT, DECIDED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF OUR
TAF SITES FOR NOW GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OTHERWISE,
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...05
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