081  
FXUS63 KFSD 221642  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
1042 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED EARLY ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE AREA TODAY, AS FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED AND ONLY LIGHT  
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED, FROM A TRACE TO HALF AN INCH. HAVE  
KEPT ADVISORIES RUNNING FOR A FEW COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST IOWA  
WHERE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING, AS SOME  
SURFACES MAY BE SLICK FROM THIS MORNING'S LIGHT ICING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING, WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT SNOWS  
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS AN EMBEDDED 700 MB SHORTWAVE  
MOVES ACROSS THE FA. ONE OF THE MORE IMPACTFUL FREEZING DRIZZLE  
EVENTS IN AWHILE, MOST AREAS HAVE EXPERIENCED A HEAVY GLAZE TO A  
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WE'RE EXPECTING RATHER  
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE MORNING. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP  
TO AN INCH HAVE ALSO TAKEN PLACE, ESPECIALLY NEAR HURON, WHERE  
THE AREA WAS CLIPPED BY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NE  
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH TODAY, CONSIDERABLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO  
THE FORECAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IN GENERAL HAS SHIFTED TO THE IDEAS  
FIRST ADVERTISED BY THE NAM YESTERDAY, SHIFTING DEEPENING  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF COLORADO FURTHER SOUTH IN THE  
PLAINS, LEAVING LESS POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING AND FURTHER  
ORGANIZATION IN THE LOCAL AREA. THAT SAID, WE'LL STILL BE SQUARE  
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MORE BROAD AND STRETCHED OUT 500 MB TROUGH  
THROUGH THE DAY SO OUR SNOW CHANCES AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE ZERO.  
 
AN ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS  
MORNING, AND THE MORE PRONOUNCED INFLUX OF NORTHWEST AIR SHOULD  
SCOUR OUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-  
MORNING. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WE MAY  
SEE A FEW MID-LEVEL SNOW BANDS DEVELOPING BY MID-AFTERNOON, BUT  
GENERALLY AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE MUCH LOWER, LIKELY A DUSTING TO AN  
INCH IN MOST AREAS. REGARDING QPF, TOSSED OUT SUPERBLEND AND  
UTILIZED A BLEND OF CONSSHORT AND HREF WHICH SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE  
MORE LIMITED ASPECT OF THIS EVENT.  
 
HAZARDS: WILL LEAVE CURRENT ADVISORIES IN PLACE AS THE FREEZING  
DRIZZLE IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT THROUGH MID-MORNING. IT'S  
POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THE ADVISORY COULD BE TRIMMED BACK OR CANCELED  
PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TODAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
WEDNESDAY: RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN  
WESTERLY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S  
IN THE MO RIVER VALLEY.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: CONTINUING TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN  
ARCTIC FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY. FLURRIES OR  
VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERNS  
WILL BE WITH STRONG WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST GUSTS OVER 30  
KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND OVER 20 THROUGH THE DAY. BLENDED IN  
CONSMOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS, AND STRONGER NBM GUIDANCE FOR GUSTS.  
BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING MAY BE AN ISSUE, ALTHOUGH WE'LL SEE WHAT  
IMPACTS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT HAS, SINCE THERE IS NOW A BIT  
OF A CRUST ON TOP OF THE POWDER.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT: IN ADDITION TO THE ARCTIC FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL  
FALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY, FALLING BELOW ZERO  
THURSDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW, ANTICIPATING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS  
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY  
FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
FRIDAY-MONDAY: SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAKE FORECASTING DIFFICULT  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NUMEROUS MID-LEVEL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE  
REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING IS LOW. EACH OF THESE  
WAVES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES OF  
SNOW. RIGHT NOW, WEAKER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER ALBERTA CLIPPER SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
AVIATION MAY REMAIN A BIT OF A MESS TODAY, AS CEILINGS ARE  
STARTING TO BOUNCE AROUND FROM LOW MVFR TO IFR TO LIFR. SIOUX CITY  
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS EVEN A FEW  
DROPS OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH MID-MORNING AS A WEAK ELEVATED  
BAND MAY INITIATE A BIT OF A SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS. FURTHER NORTH,  
LIGHT SNOWS, FLURRIES OR LIGHT HAZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
MORNING.  
 
GENERALLY, SNOW CHANCES HAVE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA  
FOR TODAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME NUISANCE VISIBILITY  
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.  
 
CEILINGS WILL RISE SLOWLY TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ014-  
022-032.  
 
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...VANDENBOOGART  
SHORT TERM...DUX  
LONG TERM...DUX  
AVIATION...DUX  
 
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