111
FXUS63 KFSD 162341
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
641 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY-60 BETWEEN
4 AM AND 7 AM. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF A QUARTER (1") IS
POSSIBLE.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 55 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD RESULT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
WIND GUSTS (TO 60 MPH) DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- THE NEXT POTENTIAL CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD
RETURN ON SATURDAY. SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT AS OF
NOW, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
STARTING TO SEE SOME ECHOES ON RADAR BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS WE BEGIN TO SEE AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS, LITTLE IF ANY RAIN WILL REACH THE SURFACE. COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED WIND GUST UP TO 30-40 MPH AS THE SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH. THE
MAIN FORCING FROM THE WAVE WILL COME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS. LATEST
HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) THAT WILL
BRING A SMALL ELEVATED MOIST LAYER NORTHWARDS. THIS MOIST LAYER WILL
PUSH INTO LOCATIONS AROUND HIGHWAY-60 EASTWARDS. THIS WILL BE A
BRIEF WINDOW WHERE WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT
300 TO 500 J/KG OF CAPE CAN BE GENERATED AND SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. THE TIMEFRAME IS BETWEEN 4 AM TO 7 AM.
LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS POSSIBLE. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN EXITING THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD
FRONT. DESPITE THE CAA, HIGHS LOOK TO WARM TO THE 70S AND 80S. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THE CAA WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 45-55 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AS
SUCH, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IS ON THE TABLE AS WELL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HIGHER
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE HUMIDITY
WILL BE LOWEST. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WANING THROUGH THE
EVENING ALONG WITH THE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIETER DAYS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE 70S AND 80S. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON BOTH DAYS BUT
OTHERWISE THE DAYS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO THE UPPER 40S, 50S, AND LOW 60S. THE WARMEST LOWS WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARDS ON SATURDAY, PUTTING
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO
BRING A WARM FRONT NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUPPORT THIS AS THEY ALSO SHOW THE SURFACE
FRONT RESIDING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE (ML) FURTHER SUPPORTS THIS
CONCLUSION AS WELL. THAT SAID, THIS IS THE SURFACE FRONT LOCATION.
CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS THOUGH IT IS TOO
FAR OUT TO SAY FOR SURE IF THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY MAY MAKE IT TO NEAR
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (60-80%) FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN
INCH SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AS WELL. ASIDE FROM STORM
CHANCES, SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR SEASONABLE DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE OVER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS COULD
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN BUT THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO THE VARIANCE IN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EVOLUTION AMONG THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE. THE ENSEMBLES REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINTY AS THEY ONLY
SHOW A 20-40% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED A TENTH OF AN
INCH ON BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONABLE IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MVFR AND
BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL SITES, AND EXCLUDED
TSRA MENTION FOR TONIGHT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE OF
PRECIP.
LLJ STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LLWS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, OMITTED MENTION AS SPEED SHEAR IS
BELOW CRITERIA WITH THE ANTICIPATED GUSTS OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AT TIMES COULD BE AROUND 40-60 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE, SURFACE WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE
A BIT VARIABLE BETWEEN EAST AND SOUTH, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS AROUND 35-40+ KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ040-056-
062-067-071.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ038-039-
050-052>055-057>061-063>066-068>070.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ014.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ013.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...SG
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