528
FXUS63 KFSD 161941
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
241 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
- HIGH (OVER 90%) CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT TO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR TONIGHT, WITH A FREEZE WARNING
ELSEWHERE.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 25-35
MPH EXPECTED, LOCALLY HIGHER OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THESE
BREEZY WINDS COUPLED WITH DRIER AIR COULD LEAD TO MARGINALLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE AFTERNOON.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA OVER THE HOUR OR TWO, LEADING TO
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA! THIS SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW
MOST AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS, AND DECREASINGLY
BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A COOL, BUT FAIRLY PLEASANT FALL
EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE DECREASING DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE LIGHTER WINDS COUPLED
WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RATHER QUICKLY
AFTER THE SUN SETS. BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THOUGH, THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD AND ALLOW FOR THE
RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HALT THE
FASTER COOLING AND ALLOW FOR AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, THOUGH STILL
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST. THUS, A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST, DO THINK THE
SLIGHT UPTICK IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL NOT MAKE IT IN TIME TO
PREVENT THESE AREAS FROM DROPPING TO 32 DEGREES OR LOWER.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, THE LONGER IT WILL TAKE FOR THE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WINDS TO ARRIVE AND THUS THE COLDER YOU'LL GET. THOUGH THERE IS
STILL SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES, CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO
THESE AREAS DROPPING TO FREEZING BY DAYBREAK. ALL THAT SAID,
FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG
AS WHAT WE'VE SEEN THIS MORNING AND THIS PAST NIGHT, BUT EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. A FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE, BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME, THOUGH
TRENDS WILL BE MONITOR. ANOTHER THING TO MONITOR WILL BE
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 70. THIS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S WILL LEAD TO
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES JUST BELOW 30% IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. ELSEWHERE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AROUND
30-50% SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD ALL RESULT IN LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY IN CURED GRASSES AND
CROPLAND.
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR A
SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN THAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH DIMINISHING WINDS, SUNNY SKIES, AND
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL RIDE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS LOW (<20%) AND FOCUSED NEAR AND EAST OF I-29 ACCORDING
TO LATEST LREF PROBABILITIES. AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH, RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT, AND THIS COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
POTENTIALLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. THE
NBM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER ENSEMBLES, THOUGH IS
ONLY WARMER BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING. EITHER
WAY, FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY GET REFINED AS MID WEEK
APPROACHES AS MORE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
LOOKING OUT TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY
TURN A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A WESTERN TROUGH
POTENTIALLY EJECTING INTO THE AREA, THOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS IS
WHERE MODELS REALLY DIVERGE. THE BROAD 20-40% POPS AS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE NBM NEXT FRIDAY IS LARGELY IN LINE WITH
16.12Z LREF, THOUGH DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE APPROACH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER PUSH OF HIGHER WINDS, THIS TIME WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST HEADING INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WITH THIS SECOND PUSH WON'T BE AS STRONG AS WHAT WE'VE
SEEN THIS MORNING, BUT GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE COTEAU DES PRAIRIES.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
SDZ039-040-054>056-060>062-065>071.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064.
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SAMET
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