785
FXUS63 KFSD 141153
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
553 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCATIONS EAST OF I-29 MAY SEE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX THURSDAY
MORNING. ANY SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER NEAR AND WEST OF I-29.
- SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS ALONE WOULD PRODUCE ONLY MINOR
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL, STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 MPH WITH
ANY FALLING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILLS AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
TODAY-THURSDAY: A BRIEF COOL-DOWN TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A BROAD
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY
SHOULD BE THIS MORNING, DECREASING WITH AN APPROACHING SURFACE
RIDGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST LATER IN
THE NIGHT, WARM ADVECTION AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, STEADY TO RISING TEMPERATURES AND
PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE NEAR
AND EAST OF I-29 INTO THURSDAY. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL
BELOW FREEZING EARLY IN THE DAY, A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING. HREF SHOWS LESS THAN 20% PROBABILITY FOR
MEASURABLE FREEZING RAIN EAST OF BROOKINGS TO SIOUX FALLS, WITH
POCKETS OF 20-30% PROBABILITY FOR 0.1" OF SNOW ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES
IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, SO IMPACTS FROM ANY LIGHT ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE BRIEF.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: THIS PERIOD WILL BRING THE GREATEST
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION, AS A COUPLE OF WAVES SLIDE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE LEAD WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING. SATURATION IS
STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH THIS LEAD WAVE, BUT COULD SEE SPOTTY
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP NORTH OF I-90. THE TRAILING WAVE AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH
TIMING STILL VARYING FROM MORNING TO AFTERNOON AMONG THE VARIOUS
MODELS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE GREATER TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH BETTER SATURATION AND A WEAK CONVECTIVE LAYER BRINGING AN
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS/HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS
(HCR). QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT, AVERAGING LESS THAN 0.05"
ACROSS THE MODELS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, EVEN THESE LIGHT
AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN UP TO AN INCH OF FRESH SNOWFALL, WITH
AREAS FROM THE COTEAU DES PRAIRIES IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SEEING MODERATE (40-60%)
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING AN INCH OF SNOWFALL.
OF GREATER CONCERN THAN THE SNOWFALL ALONE IS THE INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. PERIODS OF
40-50+KT WINDS AT 850MB (ROUGHLY 3500FT AGL IN OUR REGION)
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY. COULD BEGIN TO TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS BEHIND
THE LEAD COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING, BUT THIS APPEARS MORE
LIKELY WITH THE SECOND SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAKLY UNSTABLE LAYER DEVELOPS ABOVE
850MB. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER SHOW THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF 850MB WINDS EXCEEDING 50KT, AND AS A RESULT,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT THIS AREA COULD SEE WARNING-LEVEL
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 TO 70 MPH AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM JERAULD TO
DOUGLAS/CHARLES MIX COUNTIES AND WEST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO FURTHER EVALUATE THE RISK FOR WARNING LEVEL WINDS FARTHER
EAST. THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE DEPTH OF THE CONVECTIVE
MIXED LAYER AND IN TURN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ATOP THIS
CONVECTIVE LAYER. HOWEVER, THIS CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE AT THE
EXTREME AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN 60+MPH GUSTS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE JAMES IS LOWER.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER WINDS REACH WARNING LEVEL OR JUST HIGHER
END ADVISORY, THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE ANTICIPATED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN
SNOW SQUALLS OR HCRS AT TIMES. MAY NEED WINTER HEADLINES AS
WELL TO COVER THE REDUCED VISIBILITY POTENTIAL IN BLOWING SNOW,
BUT SINCE WE ARE STARTING OFF WITH BARE GROUND OR AN UNBLOWABLE
SNOW PACK, VISIBILITY ISSUES WILL BE DIRECTLY TIED TO FALLING
SNOW. WANT TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SNOW SHOWER TIMING AND
LOCATION BEFORE ISSUING THESE HEADLINES.
SATURDAY ONWARDS: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH BREEZY DAYTIME WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DRIFTING/MINOR BLOWING
OF THE FRESH SNOW. NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS FALL INTO
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO, WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
CHILLS IN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL SD/SOUTHWEST MN SATURDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. A BRIEF SHOT OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY COULD
PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES, BUT OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS AS WE BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD, MAINLY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND EXITING THE AREA, BUT ALSO A
SHALLOW LAYER IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. ANY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
14Z-16Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTH WINDS GUSTING 25-35KT IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH
TODAY, WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED BY SUNSET THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ050-052-057-058-063-064.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...JH
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