081
FXUS63 KFSD 221642
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1042 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED EARLY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY, AS FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED AND ONLY LIGHT
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED, FROM A TRACE TO HALF AN INCH. HAVE
KEPT ADVISORIES RUNNING FOR A FEW COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST IOWA
WHERE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING, AS SOME
SURFACES MAY BE SLICK FROM THIS MORNING'S LIGHT ICING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
EARLY THIS MORNING, WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT SNOWS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS AN EMBEDDED 700 MB SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE FA. ONE OF THE MORE IMPACTFUL FREEZING DRIZZLE
EVENTS IN AWHILE, MOST AREAS HAVE EXPERIENCED A HEAVY GLAZE TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WE'RE EXPECTING RATHER
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE MORNING. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO AN INCH HAVE ALSO TAKEN PLACE, ESPECIALLY NEAR HURON, WHERE
THE AREA WAS CLIPPED BY A SECOND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NE
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH TODAY, CONSIDERABLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE FORECAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IN GENERAL HAS SHIFTED TO THE IDEAS
FIRST ADVERTISED BY THE NAM YESTERDAY, SHIFTING DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF COLORADO FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
PLAINS, LEAVING LESS POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING AND FURTHER
ORGANIZATION IN THE LOCAL AREA. THAT SAID, WE'LL STILL BE SQUARE
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MORE BROAD AND STRETCHED OUT 500 MB TROUGH
THROUGH THE DAY SO OUR SNOW CHANCES AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE ZERO.
AN ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING, AND THE MORE PRONOUNCED INFLUX OF NORTHWEST AIR SHOULD
SCOUR OUT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-
MORNING. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WE MAY
SEE A FEW MID-LEVEL SNOW BANDS DEVELOPING BY MID-AFTERNOON, BUT
GENERALLY AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE MUCH LOWER, LIKELY A DUSTING TO AN
INCH IN MOST AREAS. REGARDING QPF, TOSSED OUT SUPERBLEND AND
UTILIZED A BLEND OF CONSSHORT AND HREF WHICH SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE
MORE LIMITED ASPECT OF THIS EVENT.
HAZARDS: WILL LEAVE CURRENT ADVISORIES IN PLACE AS THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT THROUGH MID-MORNING. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THE ADVISORY COULD BE TRIMMED BACK OR CANCELED
PRIOR TO EXPIRATION TODAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
WEDNESDAY: RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN
WESTERLY. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S
IN THE MO RIVER VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: CONTINUING TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ARCTIC FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH PRIOR TO DAYBREAK THURSDAY. FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERNS
WILL BE WITH STRONG WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST GUSTS OVER 30
KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND OVER 20 THROUGH THE DAY. BLENDED IN
CONSMOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS, AND STRONGER NBM GUIDANCE FOR GUSTS.
BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING MAY BE AN ISSUE, ALTHOUGH WE'LL SEE WHAT
IMPACTS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT HAS, SINCE THERE IS NOW A BIT
OF A CRUST ON TOP OF THE POWDER.
THURSDAY NIGHT: IN ADDITION TO THE ARCTIC FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY, FALLING BELOW ZERO
THURSDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW, ANTICIPATING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY-MONDAY: SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAKE FORECASTING DIFFICULT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NUMEROUS MID-LEVEL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING IS LOW. EACH OF THESE
WAVES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A DUSTING TO COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW. RIGHT NOW, WEAKER WAVES WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER ALBERTA CLIPPER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
AVIATION MAY REMAIN A BIT OF A MESS TODAY, AS CEILINGS ARE
STARTING TO BOUNCE AROUND FROM LOW MVFR TO IFR TO LIFR. SIOUX CITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
DROPS OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH MID-MORNING AS A WEAK ELEVATED
BAND MAY INITIATE A BIT OF A SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS. FURTHER NORTH,
LIGHT SNOWS, FLURRIES OR LIGHT HAZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING.
GENERALLY, SNOW CHANCES HAVE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA
FOR TODAY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME NUISANCE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL RISE SLOWLY TONIGHT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ014-
022-032.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...VANDENBOOGART
SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...DUX
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