240
FXUS63 KFSD 161759
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1259 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED NON-SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
DRIFT EASTWARD INTO MID-DAY MONDAY.
- MONDAY BRINGS THE WEEK'S BIGGEST WEATHER RISK. WHILE EXACT
STORM COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER 4PM, WITH GREATEST RISKS AFTER
7PM. ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE 60 MPH WINDS, GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL,
AND A VERY LOW TORNADO RISK MAY DEVELOP.
- LINGERING MORNING RAIN TUESDAY COULD LIMIT THE RISK FOR STRONG
STORM REDEVELOPMENT TUESDAY. THOUGH GREATEST STORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND HIGHWAY 20.
- EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS NOT LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: A PLEASANT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AND
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH LOWER DEW POINT AIR SOUTHWARD AND
TEMPERATURES RISE TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK. THE ONLY CONVECTIVE
FOCUS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE NEAR THE BLACK HILLS REGION.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. AS WE REACH
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR, GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION
OVER CENTRAL SD AND NORTHERN NE SHOULD INDUCE A MID-LVL CLOUD
DECK. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MO
RIVER, WITH A SECONDARY WAVE DROPPING OUT OF ND ALSO PRODUCING A
POCKET OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. LATEST TRENDS KEEP POPS FOCUSED
ALONG OR WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 12Z, WITH NO
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION RISKS REMAIN THE
BIGGEST STORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE MAY START THE DAY
WITH QUITE A BIT OF MID-LVL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. SHOULD A SMALL AREA OF VORTICITY CONTINUE CROSSING
NORTHERN SD, THEN ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION MAY PUSH EASTWARD
TOWARDS I-29 BY MID-DAY BRINGING A LOW RISK FOR SPRINKLES TO HIGH
BASED SHOWERS.
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WE SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
REMAINS IN QUESTION PARTIALLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT 70 DEWPOINTS
HAVE BEEN PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA, AND SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW ONLY COMMENCES BY LATE MORNING. SECONDLY, LINGERING
MID-LVL CLOUDS COULD ALSO LOWER TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. WE'LL
BEGIN WATCHING A FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN SODAK AND WESTERN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY,
ALONG WITH ANY WEAK PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH, PROVIDE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER
4PM. GREATER CONVECTION RISKS MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE EVENING
OR EARLY OVERNIGHT AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK VORTICITY
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENTERING THE REGION INDUCING A
STRONGER LLJ RESPONSE. IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MAY FURTHER SLOW DOWN. IT SHOULD BE SAID
THOUGH, THAT THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN
PROBLEMATIC FOR MODELS TO RESOLVE.
FROM A PARAMETER PERSPECTIVE, MLCAPE UPWARDS OF 1800-2800 J/KG
(DEPENDENT ON T/TD TRENDS AND MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON), COMBINED
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 35 KNOTS SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST POTENTIAL
FOR MULTI-CELL/SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF GOLF BALL HAIL
AND 60 MPH WINDS IN THE EVENING. SOME STORM CLUSTERING
TOWARDS STRAIGHT LINE WIND RISKS COULD ALSO DEVELOP GIVEN THE
UNIDIRECTIONAL MID-LVL FLOW. TORNADIC RISKS WILL REMAIN LOW,
BUT NOT- ZERO, ESPECIALLY IF STORM DEVELOPMENT HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER 00Z WHEN BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO THE
TRI- STATE AREA AND VERY LOW- LVL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH
THE DEVELOPING LLJ. THIS COULD PUSH 0-1 SRH UPWARDS OF 100 M2/S2
BY 00-03Z. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN GIVEN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FORCING INITIALLY AND PERHAPS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR WEAK INHIBITION HOLDING ON.
WILL CONTINUE WITH ELEVATED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED FORCING AS NOTED EARLIER. THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISKS SHOULD LESSEN AFTER 10PM, AS MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
WEAKEN. THOUGH A FEW GUSTY STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY: THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TUESDAY'S FORECAST. SHOULD CONVECTION PERSIST OVERNIGHT, THIS MAY
DRIVE ANY EFFECT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT THAT ANY STRONG CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
QUICKLY IN THE MORNING NEAR THE MO RIVER AND HIGHWAY 20 AND
DRIVE SOUTHWARD EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE AFTERNOON POTENTIAL IN
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY COOL BACK INTO THE 70S.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: A LARGER TROUGH DROPPING INTO HUDSON BAY BY MID-
WEEK WILL PUSH A PASSING TROUGH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. INTO THE WEEKEND, WE'LL CONTINUE TO
LOOK FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH NO FOCUSED
AREA OF HIGH POPS GIVEN A UNCERTAINTY OF WAVES IN THE
RETURNING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
INITIALLY MVFR LEVELS, BUT LIFTING INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
QUICKLY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
TURNING VARIABLE.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A MID-LVL
CLOUD DECK BUILDING INTO CENTRAL SD AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE MID-
LVL CLOUDS MAY SPREAD TOWARDS I-29 BY MID-MORNING AS WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...DUX
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