295  
FXUS63 KFSD 172302  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
602 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE  
TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL  
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY BY DAYBREAK AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP.  
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE  
TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST, LEADING TO WINDS INCREASING  
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
30 OR 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WARM AIR ADVECTION  
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONALLY MILD OVERNIGHT, ONLY DROPPING  
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL  
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SIDED WITH THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR  
HIGHS THURSDAY, REACHING THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S AND  
LOWER 70S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS  
REGION SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASED CLOUDS. WITH THE JET MAX NOSING  
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR  
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF I-29.  
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER  
TERRAIN SUCH AS THE BUFFALO RIDGE.  
 
COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD FRIDAY MORNING AND TRACKS  
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST  
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE WINDY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS  
AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH. CONTINUED TO NUDGE  
WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE USING CONSMOS. THE WELL  
MIXED ENVIRONMENT, ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARMER AIR ALOFT, WILL BRING  
ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.  
 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS  
WEEKEND. COLDER AIR SINKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT A TIGHT  
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST WILL KEEP  
CONDITIONS BREEZY THERE SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES  
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP LOWS BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS.  
 
RIDGING ALOFT REBUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING  
THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS  
MAINLY IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...DUX  
 
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