654
FXUS63 KFSD 230848
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
248 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WIND CHILLS IN -5 TO -18 DEGREE RANGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE MORNING.
- MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROMOTE SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY WEST OF I-29. ADDITIONAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITES (40%-70%) OF
MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS ACCORDING TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
ANOTHER COLD START AHEAD! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AND LINGERING COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT (CAA) HAVE LED TO SINGLE DIGITS TEMPERATURES ON
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO THIS MORNING WITH EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS (-5 TO
-18 DEGREES). WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING, REMEMBER TO BUNDLE UP WHEN MAKING THOSE MORNING
COMMUTES! OTHERWISE, THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG
WITH DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES (25%-35%) WILL LEAD TO HIGH FIRE DANGER
ALONG AND WEST OF I-29. WHILE THE THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY WIND
DRIVEN, A FIRE COULD SPREAD QUICKLY GIVEN THE CONDITIONS SO MAKE
SURE TO TAKE THE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS. FROM HERE, A PUSH TOWARDS
MORE MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO MORE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. LASTLY, PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN BY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT OVERALL, SOME
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO POINT TO SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF I-29 SO MAKE SURE TO MONITOR YOUR LOCAL
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY TRAVEL PLANS!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, A FEW LOCATIONS
LIKELY BELOW ZERO. WITH SOME LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DIP
TO -5 TO -15 AT TIMES. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL SET UP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, STRONGEST NEAR AND WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. THIS WILL CREATE SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CLAW BACK TO AROUND NORMAL IN MOST
LOCATIONS, CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
TUESDAY SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH WITH HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 25 TO 40 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE AFTERNOON. IF MIXING REMAINS MORE LIMITED WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO 25 TO 30 MPH, BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER
THE DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED.
A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO
BRING INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
INITIALLY THERE COULD BE A BATTLE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, BUT WITH A
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST AND COLDER
AIR SETTLING IN WITH DECENT FRONTAL FORCING, SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP.
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS WITH 30-60
PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID, WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE FRONTAL BAND AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE BRINGING THE MAX
FORCING CLOSER TO I-90. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 40S AND 50S ON THURSDAY AND 50S AND 60S ON FRIDAY. IF
SNOW ON WEDNESDAY IS MORE WIDESPREAD THIS WILL EAT INTO THESE MILDER
TEMPERATURES.
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT STARTING
TO LOOK LIKE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY VERY SMALL
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
PATCHY MVFR STRATUS APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING
AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST, BUT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY AND BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS. GENERALLY THINK ANY MVFR OBS WILL REMAIN FEW OR SCT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO TAPER DOWN TONIGHT AND SHIFT DIRECTION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SG
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