431
FXUS63 KFSD 261141
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
641 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS REMAINS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH VERY DRY FUELS, WARM
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. HEED
ALL BURN BANS AND RESTRICTIONS.
- ASIDE FROM A LOW CHANCE (< 20%) OF SPRINKLES WITH A COLD
FRONT TODAY, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SD, FROM JUST EAST OF
WINNER TO JUST WEST OF BROOKINGS, THEN EAST ACROSS MN. NEAR AND
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE SEEN A FEW RETURNS ON RADAR, WITH EVEN
SOME THUNDER REPORTED NEAR ABERDEEN EARLIER THIS MORNING. IN OUR
AREA, HAVE ONLY SEEN ONE REPORT OF RAIN IN OUR AREA AT MARSHALL, MN.
JUST OUTSIDE OUR AREA, CANBY HAS REPORTED RAIN. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW
RETURNS IN NORTHERN NE, BUT AGAIN, NOT SEEING ANY INDICATIONS THIS
IS REACHING THE GROUND. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST BASED ON THESE
TRENDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
COOLER BUT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY. GUSTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH, WITH CHAMBERLAIN AND HURON
ALREADY GUSTING TO 30 MPH AS OF 3 AM CDT. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER PUSH OF CAA BUT ANY GUSTS ABOVE 45
MPH LOOK TO BE BRIEF (AN HOUR OR MAYBE TWO) AND FAIRLY LOCALIZED SO
NOT ANTICIPATING A NEED FOR ANY WIND HEADLINES. HOWEVER, STRONG
WINDS LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS - SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE EVENING FORECAST PACKAGE. COOLER
WITH LIGHTER WINDS TOMORROW. WARMER AND BREEZY TO WINDY FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO CONTINUED FIRE CONCERNS (MORE
DETAILS BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 MPH TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE PRESENT, AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY WITH WAA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. A FEW RECORD HIGHS ARE AT RISK OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN
TODAY, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES! IN ADDITIONS TO THE WARM
TEMPERATURES, REPORTS FROM AROUND THE CWA INFORM US ABOUT THE
EXCEEDINGLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL FIRES NOTED ON
SATELLITE, SOME ARE PRESCRIBED BURNS BUT OTHERS HAVE BEEN
ACCIDENTAL. THE DRY CONDITIONS AND RISK FOR FIRE DANGER ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE COMING DAYS. MORE ON THAT IN THE FIRE
DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, AND LOW 50S FOR NORTHWEST IOWA. LATE WEDNESDAY A MID-LEVEL
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. AS IT DOES SO THE SPG WILL
TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING WINDS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. THE FRONT
SHOULD ENTER THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, BE NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR A FEW HOURS LATER, AND THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR NEAR OR AROUND DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT PASSES
THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY (<20%) FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES TO OCCUR.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY AIR BENEATH THE CLOUD LAYER. HOWEVER,
THERE IS WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT THAT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL.
AS MENTIONED, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME NORTHEAST AT 20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. A FEW GUSTS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS
JUST BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON A SECONDARY FRONT AND PUSH OF CAA THAT
MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MID-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS NOT YET PICKED UP ON THIS TREND.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS THE UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH,
AND HAVE LEFT NBM WINDS AS THEY ARE FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
ONWARD.
HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS,
CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NORTH OF I-90, AND MID 50S TO
60S TO THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S. COOLER TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE
KEEPS WARM AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION, WARMING OUR HIGHS INTO
THE 50S AND 60S SATURDAY, THE 70S SUNDAY, AND 60S AND 70S
MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME, WITH THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION ARRIVING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS SNEAKING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT IN THESE
CONDITIONS NEAR US HWY 14, SO HAVE INCLUDED MENTION AT KHON WITH
THIS ISSUANCE. SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT DRY
AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS BEEN LIMITING THIS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST, WITH GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING AROUND 30-35
KNOTS, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED HIGHER GUST IS POSSIBLE.
WINDS TAPER DOWN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD, BECOMING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
WIDESPREAD VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE'LL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 60S AND RH VALUES BETWEEN 40-60%, STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH (ISOLATED HIGHER) MAY BE
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE MORE MOIST AIR - ESPECIALLY GIVEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DRY FUELS.
FRIDAY BRINGS ANOTHER DAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND LOWER 50S); HOWEVER, MUCH DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 20% TO 30%, LOWEST THROUGH THE MO RIVER
VALLEY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS COMBINATION BRING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA, WITH HIGH TO VERY HIGH GFDI (GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
INDEX).
CONCERN GROWS FOR THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S, WITH
EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE
STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND THE LOWEST
RH OF THE TWO DAYS, LESS THAN 25% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS LEADS
TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. ANY FIRE THAT STARTS IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD VERY QUICKLY. FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED
FOR SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH AND RH VALUES A TOUCH HIGHER TO 20-30%. ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONCERNS CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE
REMAIN WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN MID WEEK
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY BRING SOME
REPRIEVE.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...SG
FIRE WEATHER...SG
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