735
FXUS63 KFSD 091716
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1216 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER AHEAD, WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
RETURNING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT (1" OR LESS) WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
WINDS AND LOWERING HUMIDITY.
- RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
LOW PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
- ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD BEGIN TO MONITOR A STORM SYSTEM
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHER THAN NORMAL AGREEMENT IN MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LARGE STORM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT
MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, SLOWING THE WARMING OF TEMPERATURES IN AREA ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-90. THE RESIDUAL WARM AIR ALOFT AND MODEST MIXING
WILL STILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
TONIGHT: NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT, ACTUALLY INCREASING IN
GUST POTENTIAL AFTER DARK AS MID-LVL VORTICITY PASSES TO THE NORTH.
THAT SAID, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL THROUGH THE 40S
AND INTO THE 30S AS MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER INCREASES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
TUESDAY: SLOPED MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES ALONG THE SD/ND
BORDER EARLY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LVL AREA
OF VORTICITY CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS INITIALLY E-W BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWS LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CLOSER TO I-90 IN THE MORNING
THAT COULD DEVELOP HIGH BASED VIRGA/SPRINKLES TRAILING FROM
CENTRAL MN SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. NORTHEASTERLY
WIND AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S TO 50 IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT: PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE TURNING TO
SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR ALOFT SINKS SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH NO DIRECT FEED FROM THE GULF AS
CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT IN MO/KS DEVELOPS AND INTERRUPTS
FLOW. THE END RESULT WILL BE LOW QPF TOTALS WITH THE PROBABILITY
OF >0.10" AROUND 40% IN LREF GUIDANCE. SOME HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW QPF TOTALS AS HIGH AS 0.15" (AROUND 75TH
PERCENTILE OF HREF), WITH HREF PROBABILITIES OF >0.10" OVER 60%
ALONG A FOCUSED AREA FROM MARSHALL TO SIOUX FALLS TO LE MARS TO
WINDOM. WITH MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING,
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT WITH A DUSTING TO 1.5"
POSSIBLE BY TIME PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST AT DAYBREAK.
HAVE ADJUSTED SLR AND CHANGEOVER TEMP SLIGHTLY TO BRING MORE
SNOW IN THAN RAIN DURING THE BOTTOM OF THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: A BROAD MID-LVL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL, WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY LIGHT QPF TIED TO WEAK MID-LVL WARM ADVECTION SLIDING THROUGH
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SPATIAL VARIANCE IN QPF IN MODEL
DATA IS SUGGESTIVE OF BROAD BUT LOW POPS POTENTIAL AND WILL BE
REFINED CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPMENT TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 40S.
THURSDAY: MID-LVL HEIGHTS RISE THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE OF THE WEST COAST AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THE RAPID DEEPENING OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER MONTANA
AND NORTH DAKOTA WILL SPUR AN INTENSE SPG FURTHER SOUTH, DRAWING
WARM AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO THE DAKOTAS. WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE 60S, WE'LL NEED TO TAKE A CAREFUL LOOK
AT RH AND WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM WIND GUSTS OF 26-30 KNOTS (NEAR THE 50TH
PERCENTILE) MAY END UP BEING TOO LOW, WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE
GUIDANCE FAVORED. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIND GUST CLOSER TO 35-40
MPH AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. NBM DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ARE SITTING NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM, AND HAVE
FAVORED LOWER VALUES BASED ON SYNOPTIC SETUP. THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE THE POSITIONING OF THE ELEVATED AND SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHICH COULD DRAW IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY FORMS. CURRENTLY, THIS
COULD BE POSITIONED NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR, PUSHING THE GREATEST
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TO AREAS IN THE SOUTH.
FRIDAY: LIGHT RAIN MOVES THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS
ONCE AGAIN FAVORED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN ARRIVES FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS OF FRIDAY FAVORING A DROP IN HIGHS BACK TO THE LOWER
40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: "BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH" MAY ONCE AGAIN PROVE
TRUE NEXT WEEKEND AS WE'RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
A LARGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE IN STRONGER THAN NORMAL AGREEMENT PULLING A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS BY SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS TROUGH A 160 KNOT UPPER JET WILL
HELP DEEPEN THIS WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE PLAINS, TO WHAT DEGREE IS
THE BIGGEST QUESTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LREF GUIDANCE AND
THEIR INCORPORATED ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE
FORECAST WITH NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLES INDICATING A >60% PROBABILITY OF
>0.10" OF PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY. SOME SPACIAL AGREEMENT ALSO
PERSISTS IN HIGHER TOTALS >0.50" WITH FOCUS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
OBVIOUSLY A LOT CAN CHANGE OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS, BUT GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING TO
AREAS OF SD/MN, IT'S NOT A BAD IDEA TO BEGIN MONITORING IF THERE ARE
REGIONAL TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A BREEZY
NORTHEAST WIND CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET AS CIRRUS INCREASES. MID-LVL CLOUDS BUILD
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW
SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...DUX
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