863
FXUS63 KFSD 281700
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1100 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
THROUGH THURSDAY: VERY SUBTLE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING, SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME VERY PATCHY FLURRIES IF THEY
CAN FIGHT THE DRIER AIR. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM, AND HAVE AIDED IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER, AND
HAVE SEEN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS BELOW.
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES, AND WE'LL SEE MID CLOUDS
AROUND. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S, POSSIBLY NEAR 30
IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR TONIGHT, MID LEVEL WAVE SWEEPS THROUGH WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL
NE, AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH. 700 MB WAVE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
SD AS WELL, WITH WAA. MOST OF THE FORCING IS BROAD, SO EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY
FOCUSED IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY, STRETCHING
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOME SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WE MAY BE A
BIT SLOWER TO SATURATE LOWER LEVELS THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS, WITH
SNOW STARTING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK THAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COLD THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING MAY DROP AS COLD AS -20 F.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO A BIT MORE AGREEMENT IN THE
TIMING OF THE ROTATING TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR WEST THIS SWINGS. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO
THE AREA, WITH THE BETTER FORCING ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO
NE. STRONG CAA AND MORE NORTHERLY FLOW LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WIND CHILLS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REMAIN
NEAR TO BELOW ZERO, AS COLD AS -20 F FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW QUICKLY THIS MOVES
SOUTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUILDS AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN US. WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TAKES SHAPE. A COUPLE OF WAVE ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
FLOW, WITH THE MORE DEFINED OF THESE WAVES SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. DID NOT MAKE CHANGES FROM THE NBM GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA LEADING TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE. WITH THE 28.00Z SUITE OF ENSEMBLE DATA, THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SHOWS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MODERATE (40-60%)
CHANCES OF EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF THIS WEEKEND, WHEREAS
THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS LOWER IN PERCENTAGE, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS
A MORE NARROW AREAL FOCUS. PROBABILITIES DROP OFF QUICKLY ABOVE A
TENTH OF AN INCH, SO CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN SOME LIGHT
SNOW AT THIS TIME.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL MONDAY, BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY
RETURN TUESDAY AS A WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AND COULD EXTEND TO NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. EAST OF THIS ARE SNOW IS UNLIKELY,
OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...08
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