134
FXUS63 KFSD 101948
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
248 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-RECORD HEAT AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES COOL.
- THE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER AND BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL.
- A COLD FRONT REMAIN ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING COOLER, NEAR SEASONABLE,
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WHILE A 30-60% CHANCE FOR RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST, DETAILS
REGARDING THIS CHANCE FOR RAIN CAN STILL CHANGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-40 MPH WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO 25-
35%. MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE FIRE DANGER CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGHS HAVE WARMED TO THE 80S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS BREAKING INTO THE LOW 90S. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. COULD SEE A FEW RECORDS
BROKEN BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN COOLING THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE
WINDS REMAIN STEADY TO SLOWLY WEAKENING FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE MORE NOTICEABLY WEAKENING THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNSET. HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME AS
WELL, PUTTING AN END TO THE FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, A
TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT (SPG) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT, RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING TO THE
60S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR RECORD WARM LOW
TERRITORY.
SUNDAY WILL BE A MUCH NICER DAY AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS
RELAX ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE MARGINALLY BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THANKS TO THE THE THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS SITTING OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THANKFULLY, THIS FRONT WILL DELIVER
NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING DOWN TO
THE 50S AND 60S.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY, LEADING
TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S, 70S, AND 80S. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEAK OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY-14. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A BROAD 50-90% CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL TOTALS TO EXCEED A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. THEIR
PROBABILITIES QUICKLY DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO FOR AMOUNTS TO EXCEED A
TENTH OF AN INCH. RAINFALL CHANCES (15-30%) WILL BE HIGHEST DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. WITHE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA, HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
VARIANCE IN HOW THIS UPPER WAVE WILL EVOLVE. SOME SHOW THE WAVE
CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARDS WHILE OTHERS SHOW A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING AND CUTTING OFF THE MEAN FLOW. THE ENSEMBLES ALSO REFLECT
THESE POSSIBILITIES AS WELL WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVING THE WAVE
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE PLAINS WHILE THE EURO AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES SHOW A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING. EACH OF THESE MODELS
RESPECTIVE MACHINE LEARNING (ML) COUNTERPARTS ALSO SHOW THE SAME
EVOLUTION. LOOKING TO THE CLUSTERS SHOWS THAT THE MOST FAVORED
CLUSTER HAS THE UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AND DETACHING FROM THE MEAN
FLOW ALOFT. THAT SAID, THE MOST FAVORED CLUSTER HAS THIS CLOSED LOW
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS DOES LOOK TO BE A
MORE FAVORABLE SOLUTION, DID NOT WANT TO STRAY FROM THE NBM'S POPS
(30-60% CHANCE) AT THIS TIME AS CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS
EVOLUTION REMAINS POSSIBLE. THAT SAID, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE IN
THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST
DAY AS BROADER TROUGHING MAY ENCOMPASS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD
THIS PLAY OUT, THEN HIGHS MAY FALL TO NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLJ CAUSING LLWS TO
IMPACT AREAS MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NE
STARTING AROUND 1Z LINGERING UNTIL 12Z. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS
REMAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD, THE MOST INTENSE
GUSTS BETWEEN 18-00Z BETWEEN HIGHWAY 81 AND HIGHWAY 59.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WE CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE 80S AND
LOW 90S IN A FEW LOCATIONS WHILE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED TO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. THIS IS RESULTING IN HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO
25-35%. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-
40 MPH ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WILL SEE THE HIGHEST GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 45 MPH THOUGH
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE MAIN INGREDIENT THAT CONTINUES TO KEEP FIRE DANGER CAPPED AT
HIGH IS FUELS. WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW GREEN
FUELS IN PLACE. DESPITE THE GREEN FUELS, THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES
TO BE FIELDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY BEING HARVESTED, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN LOCALLY DRIER FUELS. BLOWING DUST ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME AS WELL. THE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION WILL INCREASE HUMIDITY, ENDING THE FIRE
DANGER THREAT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 10: KFSD: 88/1928 KSUX: 92/1928 KHON: 92/1928 KMHE: 93/1928
OCTOBER 11: KFSD: 90/2015 KSUX: 91/2015 KHON: 91/1910 KMHE: 95/1910
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 10: KFSD: 64/1928 KSUX: 66/1930 KHON: 60/1947
OCTOBER 11: KFSD: 67/1997 KSUX: 66/1997 KHON: 68/1997
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MEYERS/RAFALSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
CLIMATE...MEYERS
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