113  
FXUS63 KFSD 071647  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
1147 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- AREAS OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO SUNDAY  
MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW STRONGER  
STORMS NORTH OF I-90 THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTS  
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.  
 
- GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME PREVALENT SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS 30-40 MPH (STRONGEST SUNDAY WEST  
OF I-29). THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE  
BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH SURFACE IMPACTS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY  
MORNING.  
 
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY,  
THEN WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BUILDS IN  
BY MID-LATE WEEK. SPORADIC RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN  
LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025  
 
TODAY-SUNDAY: MULTIPLE WAVES SLIDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA  
WILL MAINTAIN VARYING AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO  
TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLY LINGERING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY  
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE  
WILL SEE AS LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN ON THE DRIER  
SIDE. FIRST THINGS FIRST, A COMPACT WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH  
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR  
SPRINKLES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES  
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN LOOK TO BE IN AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.  
 
AN ELONGATED TRAILING WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,  
AND THIS COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO  
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO ON  
THE WEAKER SIDE, SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER,  
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH  
WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3KM COULD  
LEAD TO WEAK FUNNELS AS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.  
THESE SHOWERS/STORMS/CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER  
TO MID 70S IN OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LOCATIONS ALONG AND  
WEST OF I-29 SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE HELP WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS  
TO AROUND 80F.  
 
THIS WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z AS ATTENTION TURNS TO A  
STRONGER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA  
FROM THE NORTHWEST. A LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL  
SLIDE ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 TONIGHT. COULD  
SEE ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING,  
AS THEY SHOULD HAVE STRONGER SHEAR BUT STILL MEAGER INSTABILITY  
WITH LONG/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS  
WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS  
OF 40 MPH GIVEN A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THAT SAID, DCAPE VALUES  
ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG, SO NOT EXPECTING WIND GUSTS TO  
REACH SEVERE LEVELS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. LATEST SPC OUTLOOK  
REFLECTS THIS AS WELL, WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MARGINAL  
RISK LIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS.  
 
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, FOCUS WILL SHIFT BACK TO  
THE SOUTH AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL FRONT LINGERS BACK TO  
THE WEST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT  
SHOWERS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY/HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN  
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE, BUT AGAIN DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY  
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN OUR FORECAST AREA.  
POST-FRONTAL MIXING WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION ON  
SUNDAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
SHOW WINDS ATOP THE DEEP MIXED LAYER COULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO  
AROUND 40 MPH WEST OF I-29 SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A LOW (20%)  
PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF  
45 MPH. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS  
IN THE LOWER-MID 70S. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW  
MAY BRING AREAS OF SMOKE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER  
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST HRRR/RAP SMOKE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS  
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOW CONCENTRATIONS OF SURFACE-BASED  
WILDFIRE SMOKE TO RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT  
TONIGHT, SO HAVE ADDED THAT TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER NORTHEAST  
MINNESOTA/WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD  
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY  
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE  
UPPER LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS  
TO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT  
AND MONDAY. ANOTHER BREEZY AND COOLER DAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST  
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO  
LOWER 70S.  
 
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW WARMER, MORE  
SUMMER-LIKE AIR TO FINALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY  
MIDWEEK. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS  
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE LAYS OVER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.  
NBM/ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY SHOWING MODERATE (50-70%) PROBABILITIES  
FOR HIGHS TOPPING 90F OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY,  
HIGHEST THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AN APPROACHING WAVE  
COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE  
AFTERNOON, THOUGH TIMING OF THIS TROUGH VARIES, SO CONFIDENCE  
IN PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS LIMITING POTENTIAL WARMING IS LOW.  
 
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO BREAK DOWN LATE  
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH SOLUTIONS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING  
AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS WAVES WHICH MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  
ENSEMBLES STILL SHOWING MODERATE (40-60%) PROBABILITY FOR HIGHS  
TOPPING 90F ON THURSDAY WITH THESE NUMBERS DECREASING FURTHER  
BY FRIDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, NBM SHOWS LOW-MODERATE RAIN  
CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD, FOCUSED LARGELY IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. WITH LITTLE MODEL AGREEMENT, IT  
IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY FAVORED PERIOD AT THIS RANGE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025  
 
MAY SEE SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MN AND NORTHWEST IA THIS AFTERNOON,  
THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF  
SITES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH  
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, BRINGING  
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY NORTH OF  
INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF  
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 35+KT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO  
HIGHWAY 14.  
 
WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY, SMOKE ALOFT MAY BEGIN TO MAKE IT TO  
THE SURFACE AFTER 12Z ON SUNDAY, THOUGH VISIBILITIES ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE.  
 
 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...JH  
AVIATION...JM  
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