432
FXUS63 KFSD 090439
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1039 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD, AS
MUCH AS 15-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL REGION-WIDE ON MONDAY. A
FEW RECORD HIGHS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN ON MONDAY.
- LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS AND BREEZY WINDS IN THE WARMEST
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 MONDAY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.
- QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE INCOMING WAVE ON
MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR A VERY MILD NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL HIGHS, IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT
PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND, BUT A FEW SPRINKLES NEAR
HIGHWAY 14 WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A BIT OF MID
LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING THAT MOVES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH
VERY MILD TEMPERATURES LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING FRONT VERY WARM, POSSIBLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. HIGHS COULD APPROACH 70 IN NORTHEAST NE AND
NEARBY PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA. SOME FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED NEAR I-90 AND POINTS NORTH AS THE FRONT SETTLES INTO
THE AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
COOLER, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE MONDAY WAVE, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO ONLY 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXITS ON THURSDAY. STILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
SNOW, MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY STOUT SUB CLOUD DRY
LAYER WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY APPEARS THAT THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED
FEET WILL DETERMINE RAIN VS SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THE LATEST GEFS SHOWING ABOUT A 70-80%
CHANCE FOR A HUNDREDTH IN AND AROUND SOUTHWEST MN WITH A 40-50%
CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE SAME LOCATION. WITHOUT MUCH
WIND, ANY IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW SHOULD REMAIN ON THE MINOR SIDE. IF
EVERYTHING CAN COME TOGETHER DURING THIS TIME MAYBE WE COULD SEE A
SMALL BAND OF A FEW INCHES, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW FOR NOW.
CONFIDENCE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IS PRETTY LOW ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH MARGINAL AGREEMENT ON A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES. HAT WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE MAIN MESSAGE WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN
THIS WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN
TURN TO OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) LOOKS TO HAVE WEAKENED BELOW CRITERIA SO
HAVE REMOVED FROM KSUX'S TAF. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. WINDS LOOK
TO STRENGTHEN A BIT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING FRONT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS TO FINISH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...MEYERS
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