684
FXUS63 KFSD 162332
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
632 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. PLEASE AVOID BURNING AND ANY ACTIVITIES THAT
CAN SPARK A FIRE.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND ANY
RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX AND/OR SNOW NEAR AND
NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 14.
- SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
A STRONG LLJ WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, BUT A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT WILL BRING A QUICK
DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THIS FRONT WILL BE NEAR I-29 BY SUNRISE AND
EAST OF NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN BY NOON. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SMALL WINDOW IN THE MORNING NEAR AND EAST OF I-29 THAT MAY ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH
1000 J/KG CAPE AVAILABLE A VERY ISOLATED STORM COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. FOR NOW THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY NOT
ALLOW FOR THIS STRONGER DEVELOPMENT.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, LIKELY STABILIZING WITH A SMALL RISE NEAR AND WEST OF I-
29. WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED. SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR.
A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
ABOUT WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM JET KEEPS
DRIER AIR IN PLACE. WHAT WILL INITIALLY START AS A COOL DAY IN THE
50S ON SATURDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A PERIOD
OF HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES
WITH VARYING DEGREES OF AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM. REGARDLESS THIS SHOULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME AS
DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BUT HAVE BASES WELL INTO VFR
CRITERIA. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TURN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) IS ALSO EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE INCOMING FRONT. SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
AS WELL. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL RESTRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-40 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
ENTIRE DAYLIGHT TIMEFRAME AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CEILINGS LOOK TO ALSO RETURN TO VFR THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS SAME PERIOD OF TIME TO FINISH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT IN
CENTRAL SD AND ON FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I-29.
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH ON
FRIDAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-29 FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.
HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-
050-052>071.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-089-097-098.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-012-
020-031.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...08
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