109
FXUS63 KFSD 071144
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
544 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRINKLES POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, WITH
ONE MORE MILD DAY.
- NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED, AN INCH OR
LESS FOR MOST, WITH A LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 30%) OF TWO
INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA INTO NEARBY
PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
- LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM MEANS SNOWFALL CHANCES AND AMOUNTS MAY STILL
SHIFT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAKE SURE TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST!
- MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SINGLE DIGIT
WIND CHILLS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE WE SEE A WARMING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
CURRENTS-TODAY: STARTING OFF THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S, AND NOT EXPECTING TO DROP TOO MUCH MORE THIS
MORNING. WATCHING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ACROSS ND WHICH MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY, LEADING TO SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WE'LL WARM UP TODAY
INTO UPPER 40S IN SOUTHWESTERN MN TO NEAR 60 FOR US HWY 20. MAY SEE
SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN IA WITH THE WAVE, BUT MOST SHOULD STAY DRY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY OF 25 TO 35 MPH
(HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD).
TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT: ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT PAIR OF WAVES
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH THE FIRST MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THE SECOND, STRONGER WAVE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FIRST ROUND, EXPECT PRECIPITATION, LIKELY RAIN INITIALLY, TO
BEGIN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THIS
EXPANDS WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY RAIN. A TRANSITION TO A MIX SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HURON TO SIOUX
FALLS TO STORM LAKE BY 4 AM CST, AND SNOW THE DOMINANT TYPE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE
TRANSITION ZONE GOES DUE TO VARIANCE IN TRACK/TEMP. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, THIS WAVE SHOULD BE ACROSS NE/IA, WITH PRECIP FOCUSED
EAST OF I-29. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
AROUND THE SAME TIME, BRINGING THE NEXT AREA OF PRECIPITATION. THERE
IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS WAVE'S TRACK AND WHERE THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW. HEDGED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH POPS,
AND MAINTAINED SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY EVENING SOUTH OF I-90. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY SHOULD BE STEADY IF NOT FALLING, AND IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S.
ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WITH EITHER WAVE WILL BE A HEAVIER, WET SNOW
WITH LOW SNOW RATIOS (10:1 OR LESS). BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD (UP TO 40 MPH) DURING THE DAY, OFFSET FROM THE
ANTICIPATED HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER, THE MORE DENSE
NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOULD ALSO LIMIT ANY BLOWING POTENTIAL WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH AREA-WIDE LATE SATURDAY. EXPECT REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN FALLING SNOW SO BE CAUTIOUS IF TRAVELING.
DESPITE SOME COLDER AND FURTHER SOUTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS (GFS,
CANADIAN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM AND FV3) SHOWING MODERATE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN LIGHT. THIS IS
DUE TO BOTH WAVES BEING QUICK MOVERS, SNOWFALL RATES LESS THAN 0.5"
PER HOUR (AT MOST), WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES ALLOWING INITIAL
MELTING, AND WITH TEMPERATURES ALLOWING RAIN TO MIX IN. MOST AREAS
THAT SEE SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY SEE HALF AN INCH OR LESS. AREAS FROM
BROOKINGS TO SPENCER AND NORTHEAST OF THAT LINE COULD SEE AN INCH OR
MORE. PROBABILITY OF OVER TWO INCHES REMAINS LOW (LESS THAN 30%) AND
IS FOCUSED IN THIS AREA. IF A SOUTHWARD SHIFT CONTINUES, WOULD
EXPECT THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY STILL SHIFT AS WELL.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
AND PUSHES EAST MONDAY, MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE.
HIGHS IN THE 30S ON SUNDAY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER, IN THE 30S AND 40S
MONDAY. HOWEVER, LOWS BOTH MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
WHICH EVEN WITH LIGHTER WINDS, PLACE WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY EVEN DROP NEAR ZERO - SO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PREPARE FOR
THE COLD AND BUNDLE UP AS YOU HEAD OUT THE DOOR MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE SUNDAY, AND TAPER DOWN
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH
INTO MONDAY, WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY AS WELL, WITH SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.
TUESDAY ONWARD: RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, KEEPING US IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME WITH OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS (UP TO 30
KNOTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD). AREA OF MVFR STRATUS SLIDES SOUTH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, STAYING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME SPRINKLES IN SOUTHWESTERN MN.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT POTENTIAL MVFR IMPACTS TO KFSD
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, SO CONTINUED TO OMIT FOR
NOW. RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES EXPAND FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT, WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...SG
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