563
FXUS63 KFSD 112319
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
519 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, AND POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY MORNING.
- GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS WEEK MAY BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO
THE REGION. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
- A LATE WEEK PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIND TO THE REGION. RISKS FOR LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MILD WEATHER INTO THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL RECORD TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY VERY MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-
90 AND WEST OF I-29. A FEW WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREAS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL, BUT A LACK OF MOISTURE AND ANY
INSTABILITY SHOULD SEE MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS A RESPONSE TO
THESE WAVES.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON TUESDAY AND BRINGS MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION, WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY STRONG NORTH
WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH STRONGER WESTERLY
MIXING WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON TRANSITIONING TO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS
WILL LIKELY BE AS HIGH AS 45 MPH DURING THIS TIME. AS THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTLES IN SOME SHALLOW MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY
COULD PRODUCE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT FOR NOW
THE IMPACTS LOOK SHORT LIVED AND MINOR IF ANY PRECIPITATION CAN
DEVELOP. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE SOUTH OF I-90. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH.
THURSDAY WILL TRY TO WARM BRIEFLY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST AND ANOTHER WAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST IN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WAVE WILL MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK IS LOW AS THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY VARIABLE ON
HOW THIS WAVE WRAPS UP AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY WAVE BEHIND
IT ON FRIDAY. THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL BE THE WAVE THAT HAS A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING SOME SNOWFALL. NOT TO MENTION THIS WAVE OR
PAIR OF WAVES WILL BRING MORE STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THE GEFS, EC
ENSEMBLE AND EC AIFS 90TH PERCENTILES ALL RUNNING ABOUT 1-2", MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY SNOWFALL.
COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO HANG AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT ONCE AGAIN
SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL RUNS SO CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH ON THE
EXTENT IN TIME THAT THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY LATE
MORNING WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8-14 KTS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...AJP
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