508
FXUS63 KFSD 130415
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1015 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 25 TO 35 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARM LOWS AND NEAR RECORD
WARM HIGHS.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE ENERGETIC
PATTERN ARRIVES. PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN 0.10" REMAIN LESS
THAN 30% AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, ALONG WITH CLEAR
SKIES. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY VALLEY
AND RIVER FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DOES
FORM IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
FRIDAY WILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 20 TO NEARLY 30 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (LOW 30S F). AREAS EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT 60+ DEGREES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. TAKING A LOOK AT SOUNDINGS, THIS AREA WILL SEE MODERATE
MIXING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 900 TO 850 MB LAYER (ABOUT
2000-3000 FT AGL). MODEST WAA WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO 10 TO 12
DEGREES C, WHICH WHEN MIXED DOWN COULD RESULT IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S, WHICH SUPPORTS THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. ENSEMBLES ARE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH JUST A 40%
PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE GREATER THAN 60 DEGREES.
ALL THIS TO SAY THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW WARM
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB, BUT A FEW LOW 60S IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS, THE NBM CONTINUES TO BE
A LITTLE BIT TOO COOL GIVEN THE OVER PERFORMANCE OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS, BOOSTED WITH A
BLEND OF NBM75/90TH SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH
VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST
OF SATURDAY, AND MAY WORK TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT.
STILL, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH
ISOLATED 60S POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH CONTINUED WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND SNOW) RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: SKIES HAVE CLEARED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL RISE INTO THE 50S
IN MOST LOCATIONS, NEARLY 20+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TONIGHT: SKIES REMAIN CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, DRY GROUND, AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NBM,
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: AN EXTREMELY WARM AND QUIET WEEKEND IS AHEAD FOR THE
REGION AS ZONAL MID-LVL FLOW PERSISTS. A SOUTHERLY STREAM SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY CAST A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY AS DAILY HIGHS RISE INTO THE 50S WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC
NBM HAS BEEN A TOUCH COOL THE PAST DAYS, SO HAVE BLENDED IN A
BIT OF THE 75/90TH PERCENTILE. WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO SOME ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL MID-FEBRUARY DAYS.
WE BEGIN TO SEE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER TROUGH BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE RESULT WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. 925:850
MB WINDS ONLY PEAK AT 30 KNOTS, SO HIGH WIND GUSTS AREN'T
LIKELY. A DEEPER LOOK AT SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY WOULD SUGGEST
AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH, BUT EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED MAY
BE FALLING DEW POINTS. LREF AS WELL AS THE NBM TD SPREADS IN
THE AFTERNOON RANGE AROUND 10 DEGREES, AND BASED ON SOUNDINGS,
MIXING DEPTH, AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, WOULD LEAN GUIDANCE
CLOSER TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE.
MONDAY-THURSDAY: BROAD EVOLUTION IN THE MID-LVL PATTERN BEGINS NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LVL RIDGE FLATTENS AND TROUGHING GROWS OVER THE WEST
COAST. AS TYPICAL THIS WINTER, WE'LL SEE THAT UPPER TROUGH SPLINTER
AS IT TRIES TO MOVE EAST, WITH AN INITIAL WAVE ENTERING THE PLAINS
BY TUESDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT EARLY IN THE
WEEK, WITH SOME PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY,
AND OTHERS HOLDING THAT BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS IS
RESULTING IN QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, RUNNING AROUND 10-15 DEGREES IN THE NBM AND
LREF. FOR NOW THE DETERMINISTIC NBM IS HOVERING ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. EVEN IF
TEMPERATURES COOL IN FUTURE FORECASTS, THE BOTTOM REMAINS IN THE
50S, SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS
CONCERNED, THAT INITIAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE
RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED, RESULTING IN ONLY PASSING RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY. PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN 0.10" REMAIN LESS
THAN 30%. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WHEN STRONGER LIFT ENTERS THE PLAINS. AT THIS TIME THE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY TRACK OF WAVES THIS WINTER WOULD FAVOR THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE CWA INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING QUITE WARM, THE DOMINATE PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIQUID TURNING TO SNOW. NO MATTER WHAT
HAPPENS, THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE
"INTERESTING" THAN THE PATTERN OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD.
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...AJP
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...AJP
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