740
FXUS63 KFSD 051144
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
544 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG, INCLUDING LOCALLY DENSE FOG CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID
MORNING. VISIBILITY BELOW ONE HALF MILE IN DENSE FOG. DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN THREATS WITH BOTH ROUNDS IS HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE, WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THE SECONDARY THREAT.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX - INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN - THEN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. SNOW TAPERS
OFF BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
FOG, INCLUDING LOCALLY DENSE FOG, HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2 TO 1/4 OF A MILE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN DENSE
FOG, WHICH IS MAINLY OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF THE STRATUS
DECK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD AND IF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WEST OF I-29 NEEDS TO
BE EXTENDED OR EXPANDED. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
FREEZING COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS IN FOG THROUGH
THE MORNING COMMUTE.
FORECAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS SHIFTS. WARM AND BREEZY TODAY WITH ELEVATED (VERY HIGH)
FIRE DANGER IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROUGH EJECTS
OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATER TODAY WITH THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH ALLOWS SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP. STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF I-90. TIMING
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 8 AM. AGAIN, THINK
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY (MOST GUIDANCE STILL AROUND 500
J/KG WITH SOME TOWARD 1000 J/KG), BUT FORCING FROM THE STRENGTHENING
LLJ MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS. HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE REMAINS THE
MAIN THREAT THANKS TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT CAN'T RULE
OUT A GUST OR TWO AROUND 60 MPH.
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE VARIED ON THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BUT DO EXPECT THE AREA TO SEE ON AND
OFF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY STORMS. SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY DEPENDS ON HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEREFORE WHERE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY SETS UP. 05.00Z GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED ON THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT WITH ABOUT 6 HOURS DIFFERENCE IN SIOUX FALLS WITH THE
FROPA IN THE NAM AROUND 15Z AND THE GFS AROUND 21Z ON FRIDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, BETTER MOISTURE MAY BE SHOVED OFF TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST, WHICH WOULD LIMIT BOTH COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL. GREATEST SEVERE RISK WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST CWA. MAIN THREAT AGAIN WILL
BE QUARTER SIZED HAIL, BUT A ROGUE WIND GUST TO 60 MPH CAN'T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING, BUT THINK 1-7 PM
IS THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE.
FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW, WITH A MIX
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN AS WE SWITCH OVER. SIMILAR CONCERN WITH
MOISTURE FOR THE SNOW POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL GENERALLY KEEPS THE WAVE OPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH, SO
UNSURE HOW STRONG ANY DEFORMATION BAND MIGHT BE ON THE BACK SIDE -
AND GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY. IF THERE'S NOT MUCH MOISTURE
TO WRAP AROUND AND FORCING IS MORE BROAD, AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT. 30% CHANCE OR LESS OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM
BURKE TO DE SMET. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A LIGHT GLAZE ARE POSSIBLE AS
WE TRANSITION TO SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR AREAS EAST OF I-29 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK TO LIMIT OUR AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THAT AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH A BLEND OF
NBM AND CONSSHORT. OVERNIGHT WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ON LIGHT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS FOG ROUGHLY EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER. HOWEVER, SOME SOUNDINGS INDICATE PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS TO SEE
IF ANY HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
TONIGHT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE
MAIN AREA OF FORCING AND RAIN WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION, A
WEAK BAND OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WAA MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER LIGHT SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. CONFIDENCE IN
SPRINKLES IS LOW DUE TO A WIDE VARIANCE IN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
USED A BLEND OF NBM AND HRRR TO GET MENTION OF SPRINKLES INTO
THE FORECAST. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, ENOUGH TO
WET THE SIDEWALK UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE MID 30S.
FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. GUSTS WEST OF I-29 WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON
AROUND 25-35 MPH, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED TO
THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BE WARM IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA EXPERIENCING HIGH TO VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. THE GOOD NEWS IS MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, IN THE
UPPER 30% OR HIGHER. THE BAD NEWS IS IF A FIRE CAN START, THE
WINDS COULD RAPIDLY ACCELERATE FIRE THROUGH THE DRY GRASSES AND
FIELD STUBBLE. PLEASE USE CAUTION WITH SOURCES OF SPARKS.
IN ADDITION, THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY A DEEPENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AS IT EXITS
OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS RAPID LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COUPLE
WITH AN INCREASING LLJ TO BRING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO THE
REGION. THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS, EU, CAN, AND NAM ALL
SHOW THIS WAVE SWEEPING NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION. AHEAD OF
IT LAPSE RATES SHARPEN STEEPLY AND MUCAPE INCREASES TO BETWEEN
500-800 J/KG. THE 0- 6 KM BULK SHEAR HAS ALSO INCREASED TO
GREATER THAN 45 KTS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, ELEVATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
PENNIES (3/4 INCH) TO QUARTERS (1 INCH). THOUGH LESS OF A
CONCERN WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS
THREAT IS COVERED WELL BY THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS IT DOES
SO WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETER'S INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND BY FRIDAY EVENING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE QUESTION WITH THIS SECOND ROUND
IS LOCATION OF THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. WHILE THE TRACK OF
THE STORM IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS GUIDANCE, THE LOCATION OF
THE BEST FORCING VARIES FROM I-29 TO THE SOUTHEAST, TO
SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 60. MAIN THREAT AGAIN WILL BE PENNY TO
QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH 60+ MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE. THIS ROUND IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
FROM HERE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE.
THE GFS HAS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A CLOSED LOW
THAT CUTS THROUGH THE HEART OF OUR REGION. THE EU, CAN, AND NAM
MAINTAIN AN OPEN WAVE. ALL INDICATE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION ON THE
BACKSIDE FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX TO ALL SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS INDICATES A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW, WHILE THE OTHERS INDICATE ACCUMULATING
SNOW, BUT TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT. AT THIS TIME UNCERTAINTY IS TOO
HIGH TO SPECULATE ON TOTALS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. WHILE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL DECREASE THEY WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 20-30 MPH DURING
THE PERIOD WHEN SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FALLING. SOME REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE
40S. FOR SUNDAY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY USHERING
IN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW 70S POSSIBLE. MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH
EVEN MORE WAA INCREASING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND 70S ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. MONDAY AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY AND BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S AND
50S, WHILE WEDNESDAY THEY WILL FALL INTO THE 30S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
MVFR AND LOWER FOG AND STRATUS CONTINUES THROUGH MID MORNING.
SOME LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY BELOW
1/2 SM. MVFR STRATUS MAY LINGER IN TO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER, BUT TRENDED KFSD AND KSUX A
BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN IMPROVEMENTS.
SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES RETURN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR STRATUS. GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE SPLIT ON
THE TIMING OF CONVECTION, BUT TRIED TO NARROW AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE. LIMITED MENTION OF TS TO KSUX, WHERE STORMS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY. RA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS START OFF THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS TODAY
AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS (HIGHEST WEST OF THE JAMES). WINDS SHIFT
LATE IN THE PERIOD WEST OF THE JAMES AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE THROUGH.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ038>040-
052>055-058>061-064>066-068>070.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ013.
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...SG
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