683
FXUS63 KFSD 042323
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
623 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IN MAINLY SOUTHWEST
MN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
- ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AHEAD
WITH SPOTTY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND MAY
BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY COME TO AN END BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. WITH THE CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE LOWS WILL AGAIN BE
IN THE 20S.
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT WAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MN, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. A NICE LITTLE BUMP IN
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER AND IN THE 50S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME FALLING TEMPERATURES LATE AFTERNOON NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90
AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHILLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS POSSIBLY INTO THE TEENS NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND 20S
ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND A
NORTH WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL
FRONTAL FORCING TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. FOR NOW AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LOW.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER MT ON TUESDAY AND AHEAD WILL SWING A
WAVE ONTO THE PLAINS. OVERALL THE THREAT FOR MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION IS LOW, BUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. A QUICK LOOK AT THE SOUNDINGS HINTS THAT SATURATION ALOFT
MOVES IN, BUT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
SATURATE A BIT, THE UPPER LEVEL BEGIN TO DRY OUT SO THE OVERLAP WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN
MAINLY NORTHWEST IA WHICH COULD HELP SUSTAIN A LITTLE BIT OF
PRECIPITATION.
THIS DEEPER LOW PRESSURE IN MT WILL SWING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND BRING A SHOT OF WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST
LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WITH THIS
WAVE WILL BE TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS SHOULD BRING OUR NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
LATEST CANADIAN AND GEFS 50TH PERCENTILE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SHOWING A
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME WILE THE
ECMWF ENS IS HANGING ON TO DRYER CONDITIONS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
THE ECMWF INDICATING A WEAKER WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS AS THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL TURN
LIGHTER AND OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET AND HEADING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH OVERNIGHT
(5-10 KTS) TO PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG IN AREAS THAT SAW
SNOWMELT EARLIER SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR THIS WERE TOO LOW (<20%) TO
WARRANT MENTIONING AT KHON AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL PICK
UP AGAIN INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY, GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST
UP TO 25-30 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SAMET
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