859
FXUS63 KFSD 221736
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
BEAUTIFUL START TO THE WORK WEEK WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
DOMINATING THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA
MOVES SOUTH AND BUILDS IN OVER OUR AREA. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN A MILD AIRMASS, WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. THERE WILL BE A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH FROM EAST
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
DRY AIR IN PLACE, THIS WILL ONLY PRODUCE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS. CLEAR SKIES AND DRY PROFILES AT THE SURFACE WILL
SUPPORT COOL TEMPERATURES; LOWS TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW AND A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
U.S./EASTERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY, MILD
AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE
DAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 80S.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY MID-
WEEK, BRINGING THE RETURN OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL COMPONENT, LEADING TO
FAST-MOVING RIPPLES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, RETURN FLOW BRINGS LOW TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AREAS
WITH AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...
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