762
FXUS63 KFSD 130440
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.
RECORD WARM LOWS REMAIN POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.
- BREEZIER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD PUT A DAMPER ON
THINGS.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN MORE CONCRETE SNOW CHANCES
(40%-70%) DURING THE LATE WEEK. NEAR-ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW COULD TO SOME TRAVEL CONCERNS BY
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A
LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MANY AREAS SITTING IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND LINGERING WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) ALOFT, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER 40 TO UPPER 50S FOR
THE DAY WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
WITH THIS IN MIND, WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THE TEMPERATURES AT MITCHELL
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A HIGH OF 55 DEGREES WOULD SHATTER THE
ORIGINAL RECORD OF 53 DEGREES SET IN 1953. OTHERWISE, THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: LOOKING INTO THE MIDWEEK, ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
AHEAD BY TUESDAY AS WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE HELP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR THE DAY. AS
INCREASING DPVA INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ, COULD SEE A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 0.10" OF AN INCH
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE, A TIGHTENING SPG WILL
LEAD TO BREEZIER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZIER WINDS MAY LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF HIGH TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. NONETHELESS, WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS (40%-60%)
CONCERNS WILL BE DIRECTLY TIED TO FUELS STAYING DRY AND TEMPERATURES
STAYING MILD. IF ONE OF BOTH OF THOSE THINGS DON'T PAN OUT DURING
THE DAY, ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.
SHIFTING GEARS TO WEDNESDAY, QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN TO REPLACE THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. AN INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR WILL WORK TO LOWER OUR OVERALL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. OTHERWISE, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
FEW CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE
RIBBON OF STRENGTHENING DPVA. HOWEVER, ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
LIMITED.
THURSDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN ACTIVE
PATTERN RETURNS BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER QUICK CLIPPER WAVE DIVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR
SNOW. WHILE ACCUMULATIVE AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE GIVEN THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTIVE (WAA) REGIME, THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATION CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS AREAS
EAST OF I-29 WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE POOL SETS UP. THIS SENTIMENT
IS ALSO AGREED UPON IN MOST ENSEMBLES WITH MOST MEMBERS SHOWS
SHOWING LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE (30%-50%) IN A 0.10" OF AN INCH
OF QPF WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BROAD MID-LEVEL WAVE. HOWEVER, CURRENT
THINKING IS THINGS WOULD BE MORE SNOW SHOWERY VS STRATIFORM GIVEN
THE RIBBON OF DPVA AND INSTABILITY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
NONETHELESS, GIVEN THE CHANCES FOR SNOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY; MOST
AREAS COULD SEE AT LEAST A DUSTING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRESH
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW EAST OF I-29.
FROM HERE, THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHTENING SPG AND THE
PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON
FRIDAY (35-45 MPH VS 30-40 MPH), THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE
COLLOCATED WITH FALLING SNOW COULD CREATE PERIODIC VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AND THUS MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE A NEED FOR A WIND HEADLINE BY FRIDAY, DECIDED
TO FORGO IT FOR NOW SINCE GUIDANCE HAS MORE ISOLATED SPOTS HITTING
ADVISORY CRITERIA VS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. LASTLY, TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO 30S
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD WITH BROKEN MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH MORNING
HOURS AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTS PEAK
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 26-30 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS WILL BE AT ELEVATION IN SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, AND ALONG AND
WEST OF I-29. GUSTS UP TO 37 KTS KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTS BEGIN TO DECREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD LLWS CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG LLJ WORKS SOUTH. SPEED SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS IS EXPECTED. LLWS
DROPS OFF IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LLJ PASSES TO THE EAST.
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WEST OF I-29,
WITH THE HIGEST CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. RAIN WILL
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE, SO INCLUDED CHANCES FOR RAIN IN PROB30
GROUPS. SHOWERS PUSH SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...AJP
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