541
FXUS63 KFSD 191753
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1253 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. NEAR TO
RECORD TEMPERATURES MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALONG
WITH SOME OF THE EARLIEST 80 DEGREE READINGS ON RECORD.
- DEPENDING ON FINE FUEL MOISTURE (GRASS AND BRUSH), FIRE
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME ELEVATED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
- OUTSIDE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN RISKS SUNDAY MORNING, NO MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL MID-MARCH AFTERNOON
CONTINUES IN THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES ARE STEADILY RISING
THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO THE 70S. NBM CONTINUES TO RUN TOO COOL
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES, SO CONTINUE TO BLEND IN MORE
HRRR/RAP/CONSSHORT BLENDED DATA WHICH WILL SURGE MOST OF THE
REGION TO THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 4-5PM. A SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND MAY MOVE INTO THE I-29 CORRIDOR BY
MID-AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT: VARIED CIRRUS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A
LIGHT AND MIXY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND PREVAILS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 40S, WITH ANY LOCATION THAT SEES A PERSISTENT
WIND REMAINING WARM. WITH THE LOSS OF ALL THE SNOW COVER, FOG
CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: GET READY FOR NEAR TO RECORD TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS, AS WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE BROAD WARM ADVECTION SPREAD
THROUGH THE PLAINS. AFTER A WARM MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A FEW 80S
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MO RIVER VALLEY. ONLY TWO MINOR FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT IN THE ARRIVAL OF MID-LVL VORTICITY IN THE AFTERNOON
(INCREASED MID-LVL CLOUD POTENTIAL), AND SLIGHT BACKDOOR COOL FRONT
THAT MAY SNEAK INTO THE RIDGE. THAT SAID, WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE
HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR/RAP GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER VERY WARM OVERNIGHT WILL SET US UP FOR NEAR TO RECORD
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPS
EARLY IN THE DAY DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE
NOW PUSHES MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE UPPER 70S TO 80S, WITH NBM
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES NOW OVER 65% FOR AREAS
FROM HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE. LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A NEARLY 30% PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE
90 DEGREE MARK ALONG THE MO RIVER VALLEY. REACHING BOTH 80 AND
90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY WOULD MARK ONE OF THE TOP 5 TO TOP 10
EARLIEST FIRST OCCURRENCES ON RECORD FOR LONG TERM CLIMATE
SITES. THE INCREASE IN AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS (15 TO 20 MPH) IN
THE MO RIVER VALLEY COMBINED WITH RH VALUES FALLING NEAR 20% MAY
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOCUSED MOSTLY ALONG
THE MO RIVER VALLEY WHERE FINE FUELS MAY HAVE DRIED OUT MORE
AFTER RECENT SNOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT: GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AFTER DARK SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY GUST BETWEEN 25 AND
35 MPH, AND HAVE FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OF THE NBM 75TH
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD ADVECTION AND BRIEF STEEPENING OF THE LOW-
LVL LAPSE RATES.
SUNDAY: A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH A FLATTENED 500 MB FLOW
PATTERN ON SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT WE MAY SEE
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN PASS THROUGH AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT DON'T EXPECT HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS A 20% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING MORE THAN
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE MID-LVL PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND QUASI-ZONAL.
COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT SURGE SOUTHWARD SUNDAY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LINGER LONG INTO MONDAY AS A QUICK REBOUND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MAY TRY TO USHER IN A NARROW TONGUE OF
LOW-LVL MOISTURE THROUGH THE MID- MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY
MONDAY NIGHT. IT'S A VERY LOW CHANCE, BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ON THE LLJ AXIS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER. OUTSIDE OF THAT
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCE, DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WE MAY AGAIN SEE
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS THE 70S. ONE THING OF NOTE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW, WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN BREEZY TO WINDY DAYS WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
FIRE DANGER RISKS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TURN BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING AFTER DARK. PATCHY FOG
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
EXTREMELY WARM AIR WILL TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN THE TOP 10
EARLIEST 75 AND 80 DEGREE HIGHS AT LONG TERM CLIMATE LOCATIONS.
HERE IS A LOOK AT RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 20:
KFSD: 73/2022, KSUX: 79/2015, KHON: 75/1911, KMHE: 77/1994
MARCH 21:
KFSD: 83/1910, KSUX: 85/1910, KHON: 84/1907, KMHE: 88/1907
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 21:
KFSD: 49/1938, KSUX: 48/2012, KHON: 45/1938
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...DUX
CLIMATE...DUX
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