703
FXUS63 KFSD 050941 CCA
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
441 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POCKETS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 AM, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY. LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES COULD
LEAD TO VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEW
WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH THE UPPER 90S IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A BREAK FROM SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY, BUT
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST!
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
PATCHY FOG, SOME LOCALLY DENSE, REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 9 THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE CIN
IS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NO APPRECIABLE LIFT TO
REALLY GET STORMS GOING. THAT IS UNLESS THERE IS A LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AROUND FROM LAST NIGHT'S STORMS THAT A NEW
STORM CAN DEVELOP ON. CHANCES FOR THIS ARE VERY LOW, LESS THAN
15%, BUT WILL AT LEAST BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR. OTHERWISE
A WARM DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS IS IN STORE FOR OUR SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S EAST TO AROUND 90 WEST.
THINGS GET A BIT WARMER AND MORE HUMID HEADING INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHEN HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT REMEMBER TO STILL STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE
SOME BREAKS IF PLAYING OR WORKING OUTSIDE. THIS WILL ALSO SET THE
STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AS A SERIES OF
RIDGE-RIDER UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING SEVERE OVER OUR AREA WILL BE LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HIGHLIGHTS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 SLIGHT RISK MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
A YANKTON, SD TO SHELDON, IA, TO JACKSON, MN LINE. THIS IS
BECAUSE A FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-45+ KTS AS SHOWN BY THE GFS/NAM
NOSES INTO OUR AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS IS OF COURSE STILL A
FEW DAYS OUT, SO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AS
DETAILS AND THREATS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, THE FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN IA AS A LIFTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SPUR POCKETS OF CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN IA. WHILE THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO STAY MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE, THE ENHANCED STRETCHING
POTENTIAL AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT HAS LED TO MULTIPLE FUNNELS BEING
REPORTED MAINLY NEAR GREENVILLE AND SIOUX RAPIDS, IA IN CLAY COUNTY.
WITH THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY CONTINUING OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS)
FOR MOST OF NORTHWESTERN IA, PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MN, AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SD THROUGH 5 PM.
OTHERWISE, WE'RE STILL ON TRACK FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE THIS EVENING. GIVEN
THE MODEST CAPE AND LOW SHEAR SET UP, THERE IS STILL A DECENT SHOT
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREATS. WHILE THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE, MOST SHORT-
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS NOW SETTLED IN ON AREAS EAST OF I-29 AND ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS THE TWO AREAS FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING SO MAKE SURE TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO
RECEIVE WARNING INFORMATION! LASTLY, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS. SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING, LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES COULD LEAD TO VISIBILITIES OF
1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY: LOOKING INTO SUNDAY, QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL
TEMPORARILY RETURN AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION
(WAA), SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO 90S EACH DAY.
LOOKING ALOFT, OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY
AS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE INTERSECTS
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY DRAPED FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO
NORTHEASTERN SD. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP, THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT WITH
THE WAVE TO TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. GIVEN ANOTHER MODEST CAPE/LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, ANY
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE PULSY. HOWEVER, CURRENT THOUGHTS
ARE AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
U.S. HIGHWAY-14 HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN FROM TUESDAY INTO INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND AN
A COLD FRONT PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAIN SO MAKE SURE TO MONITOR YOUR LOCAL FORECAST AS THE DETAILS
ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED RIDGING BEGINS TO FLATTEN GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
BY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE WAVE TRAIN EXPECTED TO RESUME ALOFT, WE COULD
SEE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE THE
SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO DEVIATE FROM THE NBM AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WE'LL
CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF KSUX, WITH CHANCES OF IMPACTS THERE THROUGH 05.08Z
LOW, LESS THAN 20%. HOWEVER, SOME SMOKE HAS SETTLED INTO KSUX,
THOUGH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TIMED TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 05.07-05.08Z
SHOULD HELP KICK UP THE WIND JUST ENOUGH TO DISPERSE IT.
ELSEWHERE, IN AREAS THAT SAW RAIN TONIGHT/EARLIER TODAY, PATCHY
FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP, WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. ANY
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 05.15Z IN WHICH VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE AFTERWARDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY
(SUSTAINED TO 10 KTS) OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...SAMET
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