465
FXUS63 KFSD 161129
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
629 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH THIS MORNING. BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY. WINDS TAPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.
- MODERATE TO HIGH (OVER 70%) CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT
TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S.
- FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOME AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 59 WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE-HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY DIP
NEAR 32F OR BELOW.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING, JUST MOVING
INTO FAR NORTHERN IOWA AS OF 230 AM. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES AT BEST, BUT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER,
A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL GIVE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
A NARROW SECONDARY BAND OF COLD ADVECTION IS MOVING IN ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THIS COMBINATION COULD AID IN
BRIEFLY PULLING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH TO THE SURFACE THROUGH
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER, NOT SEEING THE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN
PERSISTENT UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST SD/EASTERN ND. AS SUCH, WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ISSUING A BROADER WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS, THOUGH, AND IF STRONGER
GUSTS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT, MAY NEED TO HOIST A SHORT-TERM WIND
HEADLINE INTO THIS MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS SHIFT EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH FARTHER
WEST WHICH STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. MAIN QUESTION IN THIS AREA IS
WHETHER THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
AN UPTICK IN SOUTH WINDS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A NON-DIURNAL REBOUND
IN TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT AND LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. THE NBM LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLDER THAN MOST RAW
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, WITH EVEN THE RAW GUIDANCE
SHOWING A GREATER CHANCE OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS IN OUR EASTERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES WHERE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. FOR THIS REASON, OPTED TO JOIN EASTERN NEIGHBORS IN
UPGRADING OUR FAR EAST TO A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WHILE LEAVING THE FREEZE WATCH IN PLACE WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS STILL LOWER FARTHER WEST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CURRENT
FREEZE WATCH AREA, AND EVEN AREAS FARTHER WEST, STILL HAVE A VERY
GOOD CHANCE AT SEEING FROST DEVELOPMENT AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NIGHT, SO THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION WILL LIKELY NEED
TO TAKE SOME PRECAUTIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
RAIN IS ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH IS MERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE RAIN, DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING THE OVER ALL SYSTEM. STRONG
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING SPG AND A
STRONG PUSH OF CAA. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 35 TO 40 MPH. THANKS TO THE MIXY
WINDS AND LINGERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT,
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE SURFACE LOW
LOCATED OVER MINNESOTA. THIS COMBINED WITH A SECOND STRONG PUSH OF
CAA WILL RESULT IN THE LLJ INCREASING TO 50+ KTS OVER EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AN AREA OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS MEETING ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA ARE TOO LOW TO ISSUE A
HEADLINE. BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (AVERAGE IS LOW 60S) IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS BREAK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW
30S. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 ARE LIKELY TO SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL TO 30 DEGREES, THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FROM
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONS ARE
RECOMMENDED FOR SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS. AREAS TO THE WEST OF
I-29 MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY AND WAA WILL BOOST OUR HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S. DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE THE MID 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE LOW
70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS LINGER MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-29 THIS
MORNING, BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-35KT TO
START THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH BRIEF ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 40KT EAST OF
I-29. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS WEST OF
I-29 AND NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL SEE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR
20KT POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
SDZ039-040-054>056-060>062-065>071.
MN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ071-072-080-097-098.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ081-089-
090.
IA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
IAZ001-012-020-031.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ002-003-
013-014-021-022-032.
NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ013-014.
UPDATE...JH
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...JH
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