547
FXUS63 KFSD 101717
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1217 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN BY SATURDAY. WHILE A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY EVENING, SOME LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES.
- ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY AS UNSEASONABLE
WARMTH RETURNS ALONG WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. THIS ALONG
WITH NEAR-CRITICAL RH VALUES (20%-30%) WILL LEAD TO HIGH TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WITH THE FOCUS BEING WEST OF I-29.
- RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER,
SOME DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTHWARD AND FRAGMENT. THE MODELS ARE
PRETTY AGREEABLE ON THIS TREND CONTINUING SO BY 12-15Z MOST
LOCATIONS WILL OUT OF THE CLOUDS AND A SUNNY AND PLEASANT FRIDAY
IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT FROM THE GEFS, CANADIAN
AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO POINT TO LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE CLOSER TO A QUARTER TO
A HALF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED S FEW LOCAL LOCATIONS COULD SEE
MORE OF COURSE, BUT THE OVERALL TRENDS ARE FOR MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY STARTING ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
WE'VE SEEN SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. SOME SNOW OR SLEET MAY MIX IN NORTH OF I-90 LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE WET BULB DOWN, BUT
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF WET ROADS GIVEN ABOVE
FREEZING GROUND TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST. AREAS THAT SAW PRECIPITATION
TODAY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP AS WINDS TURN LIGHT TO
CALM AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. LOOK FOR LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPOTS ALONG HIGHWAY
14 ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-29 DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS GIVEN
SKIES WILL CLEAR THERE FIRST OVERNIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADING INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AS WE CONTINUE
TO PULL IN MOISTURE INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY; HOWEVER AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING, THE LOW
LEVEL JET (LLJ) LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL HELP FUNNEL IN
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. THIS COULD LEAD TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE AND THUS AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM WITH SOME HAIL IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING; SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON. WITH ALL THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE, LOOK FOR HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S ON SATURDAY, WARMEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. SATURDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH;
HOWEVER WITH THE SURGE OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY, WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
AT THIS POINT WE COULD GET SOME SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM FROM
THIS MAINLY EAST OF I-29, THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION
WON'T BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD UNTIL AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES US
TO THE EAST. WITH THAT SAID, IT WILL ALLOW FOR US TO BE IN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A
VERY WARM DAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO
THE 20-30% RANGE WEST OF I-29. WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG AS
SATURDAY, BUT IT STILL LOOKS BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. THIS MEANS SUNDAY WILL BE A DAY TO WATCH FOR ELEVATED
TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH HANGING OUT NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED IN A 15% RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, AND THEN WE ARE JUST
OUTSIDE A 15% RISK TO OUR SOUTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE AREA, SO IT WILL BE UP TO THE FINER
MESOSCALE DETAILS BEFORE THE EXACT SEVERE THREATS (WIND, HAIL,
ETC.) CAN BE DETERMINED. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE CAPE
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG FOR AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER RANGES
FROM 40-70% CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE NBM AND THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE TO A 20-50% CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE GEFS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER PROBABILITIES SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT STILL INCLUDE PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA. BE SURE TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEADING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY, CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR AND
LOCALLY IFR LEVELS STARTING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL COME
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH COULD ALSO
DROP VISIBILITY AT TIMES DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY FROM ROUGHLY KSUX TO
KSLB, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW (<20%).
WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THESE HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
INCREASING WINDS AREA-WIDE BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. THIS IS WHEN WE COULD SEE SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS UPWARDS OF
25-30 KTS AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...08
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...SAMET
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