144
FXUS63 KFSD 011829
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
129 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NORTH OF I-90 TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A BIGGER THREAT FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAN
SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR AND SD
HIGHWAY 34/MN HIGHWAY 30. CLOSE ATTENTION NEEDS TO BE PAID TO
THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THERE IS A SMALL
THREAT FOR A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN IF
SLEET IS NOT AS PREVALENT.
- MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A
HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN/TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST IA AND NEARBY LOCATIONS. SEVERE
WEATHER UNLIKELY BUT SOME DIME SIZED HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
- FRIDAY IS A TRICKY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOULD BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. ENOUGH OF AN ICING THREAT THAT SOME
MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCES
FROM THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
- SATURDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. THIS
WOULD CAUSE LOCALLY RAPID DROPS IN VISIBILITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE THERMAL PROFILE IS EVERYTHING.
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IN THE LOWEST 5 THOUSAND
FEET WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET OR
SNOW FALLS. THE BIGGEST THINGS TO WATCH WILL BE THE TRENDS IN THE
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE
SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURE AND WHETHER OR NOT THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE REMAINS ABOVE 32 OR AT OR BELOW 32. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN WHERE THE THERMAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS VERY SMALL. THE
HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR THOSE
AREAS. FOR NOW WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA, BELIEVE THAT SLEET WILL BE
MORE ABUNDANT THAN FREEZING RAIN WITH UPWARDS OF A HALF AN INCH TO
AN INCH OF SLEET POTENTIAL. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 AND THE 40S
SOUTH.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS 500-1000 J/KG CAPE MOVE INTO NORTHWEST IA AND
NEARBY LOCATIONS. SEVERE WEATHER UNLIKELY BUT DIME SIZED HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE.AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE FRIDAY
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS HINTING AT MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
THREAT VS. SNOW. WITH SOME INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL ALSO
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY BETTER RATES. BY AFTERNOON THE
POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING A DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA WITH MOST
LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF I-29 SEEING PRECIPITATION COME TO AN END.
AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER STILL SEEING SOME LIFT,
FRONTAL FORCING AND SATURATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOWFALL.
THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 300 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING THE DGZ LOWERING AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN AND SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER FROM ABOUT THE SURFACE
TO 850 MB. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOWER DGZ AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS WITHIN THESE SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF, RAPID DROPS IN VISIBILITY IF EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER. AS A
NOTE, THE CIPS SNOW SQUALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE TWO HIGHEST
CATEGORIES ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TURN MORE WESTERLY WHICH WILL BRING A BIT OF WARMING. OVERALL THREAT
FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS VERY LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS STRATUS BUILDS NORTH AND LOWERS. RAIN WILL
WITH PATCHY SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WILL BE
NEAR HIGHWAY 14 INTO SOUTHWEST MN WHERE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICING AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.
GENERALLY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 3-6Z.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR SDZ038>040-055-056.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-097.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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