059  
FXUS63 KFSD 232005  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  
305 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS LOW  
TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE 30S.  
 
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND.  
 
- A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND IOWA.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2024  
 
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER  
LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DIURNAL  
CU HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING, BUT  
THEY REMAIN SHALLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY RISK OF SHOWERS OR  
SPRINKLES NEAR ZERO. THE CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS  
EVENING AFTER SUNSET. A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN  
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT, REACHING JUST NORTH OF LAKE  
SUPERIOR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING  
SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF AND  
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, RESULTING IN  
AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOPING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF FROST  
WILL BE CENTERED WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNRISE, AND  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, SO HELD OFF  
ON FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. DURATION OF FROST WILL BE LONGER  
FARTHER EAST.  
 
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BUT THE PATTERN  
WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT LATER THURSDAY AND INTO THE  
WEEKEND. MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING  
SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A BUILDING  
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE FLUX  
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS TAPPED INTO FROM  
THE GULF AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS. AS THAT OCCURS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT  
OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE LLJ WILL  
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT, AND COULD REACH 50 KTS BY  
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS, COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE  
RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION, AND MUCAPE VALUES POTENTIALLY AS  
HIGH AS 1500 J/KG, COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE  
STORMS OVER NORTHEAST NE, NORTHWEST IA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN SD.  
THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE LARGE HAIL. AS FRIDAY CONTINUES ON,  
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY  
CONTINUE AND IT COULD BE DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO  
RECHARGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
ULTIMATELY, THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER AND  
CURRENTLY MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT TRACKING OVER SIOUX FALLS  
FRIDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, ANY SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS OF SEVERE  
WEATHER WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST IA OR EVEN FARTHER  
SOUTH.  
 
THE LEAD WAVE WILL CLEAR OUT BY SATURDAY, BUT A SECOND WAVE  
BEHIND IT WILL BE MOVING IN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL BEHAVE SIMILARLY TO ITS PREDECESSOR, BRINGING MORE  
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRACK MAY BE A BIT  
FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE FIRST ONE, WHICH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF  
THE SEVERE THREAT AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER, MORE WIDESPREAD  
RAIN WILL HELP WITH THE LINGERING ABNORMAL DRYNESS OF LATE.  
 
A BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SIGNS  
INDICATE A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE  
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE  
PATTERN ACTIVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING  
ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE. BREEZY  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH  
GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE GUSTS WANE AS WE  
APPROACH SUNSET, WITH WINDS THEN TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR DIRECTION TO  
BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID-MORNING TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF/WFO MPX  
AVIATION...SST  
 
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