396
FXUS63 KFSD 120441
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1041 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IS AHEAD, WITH
DAILY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RECORDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
- LIGHT RAIN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES MIXED IS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW. ANY SNOW
THAT FALLS WILL QUICKLY MELT.
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY BRING
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISKS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 853 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
TAKING A LOOK AT CURRENT RADAR SHOWS WEAK ECHOES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA FLOWING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. BASED ON
SDDOT CAMERAS, NOTHING IS YET MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THE LATEST
CAMS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF I-90. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER 5000 FT
AGL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH SATURATION, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK AS A RESULT,
LEAVING A 20-40% PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (0.01")
FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WAA WILL BE BEST
ALIGNED. TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARD
IN THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL BE LIGHT RAIN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIXED IN. TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO AT BEST. THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN AS WELL, BUT
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AS THEY WILL QUICKLY MELT.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE MOURNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH. FOR YOUR INFORMATION,
THE AVERAGE HIGH FOR FEBRUARY 12 IS 31-33 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. NO
REAL CHANCE FOR BREAKING ANY HIGH RECORDS THOUGH, AS THOSE ARE IN
THE LOW 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY WHICH IS ONCE AGAIN
HELPING TO PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE 50S.
ANY HIGH GFDI VALUES ARE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90.
TONIGHT: WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE SOME LOW-LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
INCREASE AND FOCUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 LATER THIS EVENING. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE AREA OF VORTICITY SLIDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW DOWNTRENDS IN
BOTH LIFT AND QPF, PARTIALLY DUE TO A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER BELOW
8000 FT AGL. CPD PLOTS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE AT ALL, SUGGESTING
THAT ONLY A SMALL AREA COULD SEE ENOUGH LIFT TO SATURATE TO THE
GROUND. THAT SAID, SOME CAMS STILL DO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
TOP-DOWN SATURATION, BUT VARIATION IN PLACEMENT OF THESE BANDS
STRONGLY INDICATES THAT QPF AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS TOWARDS A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO AT MOST. AT THIS TIME, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST, KEEPING POPS FOR MEASURABLE QPF BETWEEN
20-40%. ANY SNOWFLAKES THAT DO MIX IN OR REACH THE GROUND SHOULD
MELT QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING.
THURSDAY: SOME GUIDANCE DOES LINGER LOWER STRATUS INTO NW
IOWA/MINNESOTA EARLY THURSDAY, BUT EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY THERE IS NO COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW
HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
A BROAD MID-LVL RIDGE PERSISTS THROUGH THE CONUS. A STRONGER
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY COULD PUSH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH, AND
MAY HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. ABSENT THIS IMPACT, WE
SHOULD SEE DAILY HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SPEAKING OF SUNDAY, EVENTUALLY THE INCREASE IN 925:850 MB WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A MIXDOWN OF 20-30 MPH WIND GUSTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASED WIND, COMBINED WITH WARM AND DRY LOW-
LVL AIR COULD PUSH GFDI VALUES TOWARDS THE HIGH TO VERY HIGH LEVELS.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: A SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT TRIES TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LONG WAVE TROUGHING THAT FORMS OVER THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO
SEND ENERGY EASTWARD. THIS INCREASING TROUGHING WILL PUSH 850:700 MB
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS AND ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND TOWARDS THE
99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOCUSED AROUND MID-FEBRUARY. THE
RESULT WILL BE THAT MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY WARM WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S. UNCERTAINTY GROWS A
BIT FURTHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOP
IN THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA AREA AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. WITH THE
BULK OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA, THE TRACK
OF THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF WARMTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS MORE APPARENT IN THE NBM 25/75TH TEMPERATURE
PERCENTILES WHICH SHOW A 12 TO 15+ DEGREE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL RANGING
FROM THE MID/UPR 60S TO THE LOW/MID 50S. LOOKING AT CLIMATE RECORDS
IN COMPARISON TO THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL OVERNIGHT HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. ANTICIPATE RATHER GUSTY WINDS IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME GIVEN THE INCREASE IN TROUGHING IN
THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
TAKING A LOOK AT CURRENT RADAR SHOWS WEAK ECHOES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA FLOWING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. BASED ON
SDDOT CAMERAS, NOTHING IS YET MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THE LATEST
CAMS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF I-90. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER 5000 FT
AGL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH SATURATION, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK AS A RESULT,
LEAVING A 20-40% PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (0.01")
FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, AND
NORTHWESTERN IOWA WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WAA WILL BE BEST
ALIGNED. TEMPERATURES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARD
IN THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL BE LIGHT RAIN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FREEZING DRIZZLE
MIXED IN. TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO AT BEST. THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN AS WELL, BUT
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AS THEY WILL QUICKLY MELT.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE MOURNING. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTH. FOR YOUR INFORMATION,
THE AVERAGE HIGH FOR FEBRUARY 12 IS 31-33 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. NO
REAL CHANCE FOR BREAKING ANY HIGH RECORDS THOUGH, AS THOSE ARE IN
THE LOW 60S.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...AJP
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...AJP
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