254
FXUS63 KFSD 290554
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1254 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS FROM THE SIOUX CITY METRO INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA
HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FROM YANKTON TO
SIOUX FALLS TO BROOKINGS AND INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL
BE NEAR AND EAST OF I-29.
- SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED PERIODICALLY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. DAILY HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 105 DEGREES WILL LEAD TO
MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME HEAT RISK AT TIMES. TAKE PRECAUTIONS
TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HEAT ILLNESS.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK LEADS TO PERIODIC MODERATE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
RAIN ALSO BRINGS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DAILY EXCESSIVE HEAT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
WITH LITTLE RELIEF HEADING INTO TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
VERY WARM RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S WEST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S EAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD
INTO MINNESOTA THIS EVENING, WITH SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE OCCURRING
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAYBE A SHOWER
OR TWO FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR IN
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF TO OUR WEST TONIGHT
NEAR THE BLACK HILLS AND THE FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD HEADING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WITH THESE
STORMS LIKELY FORMING FARTHER WEST OF THE AREA THAN LAST NIGHT,
IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY MISSES US TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. HOWEVER, IT CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT THAT THESE STORMS
CLIP THE FAR WESTERN REACHES OF OUR AREA FROM CHAMBERLAIN TO
HURON AND POINTS NORTHWEST OF THEIR LATE TONIGHT, AFTER ABOUT
3-4 AM. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THESE AREAS WILL HAVE
AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHEN LIFTING FROM
ABOUT 850-700 MB WITH NOT TOO MUCH CIN IN PLACE AT TIMES. WITH
LARGE CAPE PROFILES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8 C/KM,
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WOULD BE THE THREAT IF
THE CORE OF THESE STORMS WERE TO CLIP THE AREA. ONCE THOSE
STORMS OUT WEST GET MORE ORGANIZED, SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF
WHERE THEY TRACK. BUT AS OF NOW, CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING
STORMS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CHAMBERLAIN TO HURON
LINE IS LOW (<15%).
LASTLY, PATCHY FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT
GIVEN DIMINISHING WINDS AND WET GROUNDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THIS WILL BE NORTH OF I-90 WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST FOR THE
LONGEST STRETCH OF TIME OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, HIGH CLOUDS FROM
STORMS OUT TO OUR WEST COULD HELP LIMIT FOG IMPACTS OVERALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THUNDERSTORM RISKS:
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
OVERNIGHT MCS THAT BROUGHT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH TO 2
INCHES, WITH POCKETS AROUND 3 INCHES. EVEN WITH THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS, DRIER AIR ALOFT AND A GENERAL LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SUGGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN AT BAY. A VERY
WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN IA TONIGHT BUT MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY SCANT WITH THIS. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE WAVE IS TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA WITH STORMS LOOKING TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
AREA AS WELL.
THIS STRONGER WAVE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL SD ON MONDAY AND BRINGS
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY TO THE AREA. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
AND COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF I-29 BUT ONCE AGAIN WILL BE FIGHTING A BIT
OF A CAP. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP THERE WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO 300
J/KG CAPE AS WELL AS MODERATE SHEAR TO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH
AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AS
WELL WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 14000 FEET AGL.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE NEXT PERIOD WHERE MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY AGREEABLE LIFTING A WAVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA AND ONLY
SLOWLY EXITING. THIS BRINGS A SOMEWHAT EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT
AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. WITH THE FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 13000 FEET AGL, HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.
ANOTHER FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
AND MAY CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
LESS AGREED UPON BUT CONTINUED PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAT RISKS:
LONG STORY SHORT, DAILY EXCESSIVE HEAT IS NO GUARANTEE THIS WEEK
GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NUMEROUS WEAK WAVES WHICH WILL
LIKELY SPARK SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL AS PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.
MONDAY WILL PROVE TO BE WINDY AND HOT WITH FAIRLY HIGH HUMIDITY.
THIS SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 105 TO AREAS NEAR
AND EAST OF I-29. HEAT INDICES WEST OF I-29 WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
TUESDAY WILL SEE A LITTLE DRYING IN THE LOW LEVEL AS THIS MONDAY
NIGHT WAVE LIFTS NORTH AND INDUCES A LITTLE MIXING IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WHILE HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 90S, LOWER DEW POINTS
SHOULD BRING A BREAK FROM THE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND LIKELY KEEP
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S.
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MORE QUESTION MARKS IN REGARDS TO HIGHER HEAT
INDICES, MORE SO THE TEMPERATURES THAN THE DEW POINTS. WITH THE
EXPECTED WAVE LINGERING AROUND DURING THE DAY, CLOUD COVER, AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION, WILL BRING ABOUT A LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING HIGH ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO MORE DANGEROUS
HEAT RISK LEVELS.
THURSDAY CONTINUES WITH A FEW QUESTION MARKS REGARDING EXCESSIVE
HEAT DUE TO ANOTHER WAVE AS WILL FRIDAY. STILL LIKELY DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH SOME
HUMIDITY, BUT THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD 100 + DEGREE HEAT
INDICES EVERY DAY WILL BE LIMITED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AREAS OF MVFR-LOCALLY IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD, MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
SD/SOUTHWEST MN. AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT
SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE (LIFR), BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER IN
RESPONSE TO AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING WINDS, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30KT DURING THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNSET.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY AFTER 29/22Z INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD IMPACT KFSD OR KSUX DURING THE LATTER HOURS OF THIS TAF
PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE TS IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
SUMMER HEAT PEAKS TODAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TEMPERATURE
RECORDS TO BE TIED, OR POSSIBLY BROKEN:
CURRENT RECORD HIGHS:
MONDAY (06/29): KFSD(101|2002) KSUX(100|2022)
CURRENT RECORD WARM LOWS:
MONDAY (06/29): KFSD(77|2020) KSUX(80|1931) KHON(75|2020)
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ062-066-067-
069-070.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ071.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR SDZ040-056.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001>003.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ014.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...JH
CLIMATE...JH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page