400
FXUS63 KFSD 282331
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
531 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
- WIND CHILL VALUES ABOUT -15 TO -25 FRIDAY MORNING, COLDEST
NORTH OF I-90.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW, AN INCH OR TWO LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER CHANCE
NORTH OF I-90.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
BRING A WEAK BAND OF SNOW TO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD. ALMOST ALL
MODELS INDICATE SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL, BUT VIRTUALLY NONE OF THEM
PRODUCE MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID, SO THINKING 1.5" OR
LESS IN GENERAL WITH THE BETTER CHANCE IN GREGORY COUNTY. AREAS
CLOSER TO THE JAMES RIVER WILL LIKELY BE THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
SNOW AND RECEIVE NOTHING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE SOME DRY ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTHEAST THAT SETTLE
SOUTH A TOUCH AS THIS WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THE BETTER CHANCES SETTLE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
LINGERING FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A SHALLOW AND POTENTIALLY SATURATED DGZ. FORCING IS VERY WEAK
SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. OTHER THAN
THESE FLURRIES, FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE
NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW. A WAVE SHOULD PASS BY TO THE
NORTH AND SWING A BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH
THE AREA. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE LIFT MOVING THROUGH AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO NORTH OF I-
90.
THIS WAVE ALSO HELPS USHER IN SOME MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO WAVER A BIT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE MODELS ARE MARGINALLY AGREEABLE THAT A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. STILL A LONG
TIME UNTIL WE GET TO THIS SYSTEM, BUT THIS MAY BE OUR NEXT BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL AFTER THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A BAND OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS BENEATH THE CIRRUS SITTING AT VFR LEVELS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER. THE SNOW WILL COME CLOSE TO KHON AND KSUX BUT DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS PRECLUDES CONFIDENCE FROM BEING HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
LIGHT SNOW IN A PREVAILING GROUP. HAVE INSTEAD KEPT SNOW IN PROB30
GROUPS FOR THESE TWO TAF SITES. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SNOW. SNOW CHANCES WILL BE COMING TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW, LEAVING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...MEYERS
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