701
FXUS63 KUNR 182321
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
421 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
CURRENT UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA NOW THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND MILD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW MOVING OVER NORTH DAKOTA, AS THE
SURFACE LOW IS WELL EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S TO MID 30S.
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENTS NOW SIT IN EASTERN SD INTO MINNESOTA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, CONTINUING
OUR COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING WAA INTO THE REGION FRIDAY, AS LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS FRIDAY
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (40S IN THE BLACK
HILLS). DECENT MIXING WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY WINDS AGAIN FRIDAY,
WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS. LOW END WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD AND PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN WY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK IN AGAIN, AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHER BLACK HILLS AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. FOLLOWING
THIS DISTURBANCE, MILD RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN IN THE WESTERN CONUS,
INFLUENCING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF CHRISTMAS WEEK.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS, ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 19/05Z OVER NORTHEASTERN WY,
SPREADING INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD FRIDAY REACHING 30-45KTS AT TIMES
FRIDAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...HELGESON
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