831
FXUS63 KUNR 140514
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING.
- AFTER A QUIET WEDNESDAY, HIGH WIND EVENT POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH WIND GUSTS 60-80 MPH POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST,
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRAVERSING THE CWA. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SCATTERED AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
SIT IN THE 40S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS, 30S OVER THE BLACK
HILLS, WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, WITH ONGOING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND HEADLINES, WITH
WIND ADVISORY DROPPING OFF AT 00Z. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER
ELEVATION BLACK HILLS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY.
AFTER A QUIET WEDNESDAY, ATTENTION TURNS TO THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE RIDES THE RIDGE DOWN FROM CANADA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
SCANT MOISTURE WITH THIS DISTURBANCE LIKELY WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO MAYBE SOME VERY LIGHT FLURRIES OVER THE UPSLOPE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS THESE DAYS AS
TWO BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH. MODELS SHOW THE FIRST BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PRESSURE RISES ARE FAIRLY MODEST WITH
BOTH FRONTS, WITH THE NAM AND GFS POINTING TO 2-4MB/3HR RISES.
HOWEVER COUPLED WITH STRONG CAA, EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
BOTH DAYS. EFI SHOWS THE STRONGEST SIGNAL ON FRIDAY (95 PERCENT)
AFTER THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. NBM PROBABILITIES OF
55 MPH OR GREATER SIT IN THE 60-90% RANGE BOTH DAYS, WHILE
PROBABILITY OF 65 MPH OR GREATER FOR FRIDAY SITS IN THE 60-80%
RANGE FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. WIND HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH DAYS. EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH FRIDAY'S HIGHS
ONLY REACHING INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD, HOWEVER WITH THE TRANSITION LINE BETWEEN
AIR MASSES NEAR THE FORECAST AREA, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA INVOF OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED IN THE PERIOD.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ON THE SD
PLAINS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...JC
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