209
FXUS63 KUNR 050534
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1034 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON THE SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW CHANCES MID-WEEK. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKENDED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RUNS NW/SE FROM IDAHO THROUGH WYOMING THEN SOUTH THROUGH
CO, WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN WYOMING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES CONTINUE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND JUST EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 2 DEGREES IN
NORTHWESTERN SD, TO 20 DEGREES IN SOUTHWESTERN SD. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH LOW CEILINGS STICKING AROUND HAS TEMPERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SOMEWHAT.
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WAA MOVES INTO THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE LOCATION AND SPREAD OF THE TEMPERATURES OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTS UP INTO THE REGION.
AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS
CREEPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S, WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE 30S. CURRENTLY THE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED AROUND THE I-90 CORRIDOR, AND SO THAT IS THE
AREA OF HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY. THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER RAPID CITY WEDNESDAY RANGES FROM 36 TO 51
DEGREES.
MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANY SNOWFALL. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW MOVES IN THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, AS A STRONGER TROUGH TREKS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, KEEPING THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF SD AND THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 2" OR MORE HAS
WIDESPREAD 2"+ ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 50 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE,
WHILE PROBABILITIES OF 6" OR MORE HAS A SWATCH OF 40 TO 60 PERCENT
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE
FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.
NOT MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST TUE FEB 4 2025
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE BLACK HILLS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND PART OF FAR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...7
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