134
FXUS63 KUNR 091908
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
108 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LAST INTO
SATURDAY.
- PATTERN CHANGE LATE THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S. (HIGHS LIKE THIS ARE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 TO 35
MPH.
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM, WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. EXPECTED HIGHS ARE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S AGAIN
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY DUE TO LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS, MORE INFORMATION CAN BE
FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
AFTER SATURDAY, A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL HAPPEN.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SWING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AND THAT LOW IS
PROJECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BEFORE KICKING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE THE CENTRAL US. THAT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA, HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE 50S
AND 60S AND LOW TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE 30S AND 40S.
THIS CHANGE WILL ALSO BRING BACK THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FIRST
ROUND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA ZONES LATE
SATURDAY WITH POPS LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
BEYOND MONDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TREND IS THE SAME IN THE WEATHER MODEL PROJECTIONS; AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST, THEN
AROUND MID-WEEK, THE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
STATES. BUT THE DETAILS IN THIS STORY ARE WHAT DIFFERS. THE GEFS
HAS A STRONGER LOW, WHEN COMPARED TO THE EURO. AND THE EURO ENS
HAS A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE, WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEFS. THESE
DIFFERENCES MEAN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH ROUND
OF RAIN AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THERE ARE EVEN SOME
SCENARIOS THAT KEEP THE RAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA, LEAVING US DRY. SO
STAY PLUGGED INTO THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH GUSTS REACHING 25-35KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED OVER
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS OF THIS WRITING
AROUND MIDDAY. THIS AFTERNOON, MINIMUM RH VALUES DOWN TO 10-20%
ARE LIKELY WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. BECAUSE OF THESE CONDITIONS, A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN WY PLAINS, FAR
SOUTHWESTERN SD, AND THE FOOTHILLS.
SATURDAY WILL BRING NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN
WITH AFTERNOON RH'S DROP TO 15-20% AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS
OF NOW, THE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THERE BUT THE QUESTION IS WILL RH
VALUES DIP TO THE LEVEL NEEDED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED AND IF NEEDED, THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
EXTENDED FOR PARTS OF THE CWA.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ320>327-329-
332.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ314>318.
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
FIRE WEATHER...GS
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