827
FXUS63 KUNR 061837
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1137 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
- SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FLOW MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TX WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE FRONT STRETCHES FROM SE MT INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL SD WITH (SLOWLY-ERODING) LOW STRATUS ACROSS ND AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.
UPPER RIDGE WILL PIVOT EASTWARD WITH THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTING
EASTWARD LATER TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
VERY WARM AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 70 (20-35F ABOVE NORMAL).
SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK LOW WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY,
BRINGING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY. GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS, HOWEVER PROLONGED ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL DIG INTO THE SW US AND
NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE EJECTING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE ALONG WITH
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MORE
SEASONABLE AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS ON AMOUNTS, WITH
MEASURABLE SNOW (>2") MOST LIKELY IN THE BLACK HILLS (~50-60%
PROBABILITY) WITH LOWER CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE PLAINS
(<15% OF 2" OR MORE OF SNOW).
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST SD THROUGH
02Z. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY (PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN
SD AND NE WY) THROUGH MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES 15-30F+ ABOVE
NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SD
AND WY PLAINS, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES AND RH IN THE 20S (LOWEST NE WY, SOUTHERN BHS,
FOOTHILLS, AND SW SD PLAINS) WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO
TRANSIENT NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALTHOUGH RH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE IN THE 20S-30S EACH DAY, RESULTING IN CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY
BRINGING COOLER AIR AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
HOWEVER, STRONGER WINDS (GUSTS >35 MPH) ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
FIRE WEATHER...SE
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