861
FXUS63 KUNR 202306
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
406 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- WARMER (ABOVE AVERAGE) TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MT DOWN TO NORTHERN CO, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS/SOUTHERN MIDWEST, A STRONG SURFACE
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MI WITH A COLD FROM EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MO/KS, AND A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CO
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION RESULTING IN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS, WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
FOR TONIGHT, THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
RISE AS THE RIDGE, OVER THE WEST COAST, MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE BEFORE DECREASING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD,
WITH MOST SEEING SINGLE DIGITS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN WARMING BACK INTO THE 30S FOR
MOST, WITH SOME 20S WHERE SNOW IS ON THE GROUND. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE IN THE MORNING, WITH 25-35 MPH GUSTS NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS, SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS, AND SOUTHWEST SD.
AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY, THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO START CREEPING BACK
INTO PARTS OF WY. BY MONDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE,
ALLOWING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WITH THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S AND THE PROBABILITY OF >40 MPH WIND GUSTS CURRENTLY
AT 35-55 PERCENT OVER SOUTHWEST SD, INCREASED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
(NBM-CONUS). OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, UNFORTUNATELY, CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 405 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...HELGESON
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