445
FXUS63 KUNR 031133
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SATURDAY.
- NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES ACROSS NW SD SAT MORNING. COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SAT MORNING, WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS OVER 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED,
ESP IN THE LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS. COOLER SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 30S AND 40S. WARMING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 80S EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUES MOST PLACES. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE NEXT COOL FRONT. DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, AS UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH THE
UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. 19Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES SIT IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, WITH BREEZY WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, WITH ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HANGING AROUND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MILD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS MOSTLY STAGNANT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUILDING A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROMPT WARMING
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 80S
FOR SOME AREAS. NEXT DISTURBANCE COMES SATURDAY AS A WAVE RIDES
THE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. CURRENT MODELS KEEP THE
BULK OF BETTER FORCING IN NORTH DAKOTA, BUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD REACH DOWN INTO NORTHWESTERN SD. LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE REGION, SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ONLY
AMOUNT TO A TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
A FEW SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES
RIDE THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS (WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME OF
THE STRONGER CORES) WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT BY 15-16Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP MORNING WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING VARIABLE BY THE EVENING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...WONG
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