231  
FXUS63 KUNR 051133  
AFDUNR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD  
533 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE PAC NW COAST. STRONG RIDING  
IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE LOW IS SITTING ACROSS WYOMING INTO  
NEBRASKA AND EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN SD. AN UPPER WAVE IS  
PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. SEVERAL SEVERE  
STORMS ARE CROSSING SOUTHEAST MONTANA AT THIS TIME. CAMS ARE  
UNDECIDED WITH WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST  
SOUTH DAKOTA. LATEST KUDX IMAGE SHOWS SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING  
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST SD. WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR THESE STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, AS THEY PUSH INTO  
CENTRAL SD. GOOD INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR MORE  
STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREATS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS WILL BE AT ~175% OF  
NORMAL. CONVECTIVE INITIATION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EARLY  
TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHEAST  
WYOMING...AND THEN AROUND THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. STORMS  
WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. ANOTHER  
WAVE THIS EVENING WILL CROSS EASTERN MONTANA AGAIN, BRINGING MORE  
THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT AREA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS A  
POSSIBILITY THESE STORMS WILL CLIP NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE  
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SIMILAR STORY TOMORROW  
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. ANOTHER ROUND OF  
STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, AS A WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A SHIFT IN THE  
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS  
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH  
INSTABILITY FOR STORMS, BUT SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LACKING MORE.  
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER IS AT THIS TIME EXPECTED HEADING  
INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BROUGHT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG  
AND LOW STRATUS TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EXTREME  
NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH  
MID TO LATE MORNING, THEN LIFT TO MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE  
DAY. SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS  
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  
 

 
   
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...13  
AVIATION...15  
 
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