365
FXUS63 KUNR 220507
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW ALONG THE CA COAST,
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE
REGION. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. WINDS
ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH IN MOST AREAS.
WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF NICE WEATHER, WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL START
TO CHANGE SOME AFTER THAT, WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, IT WILL STAY
RELATIVELY MILD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TUESDAY HIGHS
ARE PROJECTED TO BE SIMILAR WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY.
UPPER LOW ALONG THE CA COAST WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AS A WEAKENING
TROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS SEASONABLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THIS MORE
ACTIVE FLOW COULD BRING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER
SOME ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES BEYOND THIS
TIME, SO A BLENDED MODEL FORECAST IS REASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...SHERBURN
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