128
FXUS63 KUNR 291109
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
509 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TOMORROW.
- GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK, WITH LITTLE CHANGES IN THE SHORT
TERM. SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO QPF/POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. MID-LEVEL
FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION, MAINLY FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED OFF OF CAMS.
LOW END CAPE IN THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MIGHT SPARK A BIT
OF LIGHTNING, BUT EXPECT MOSTLY JUST SHOWERS WITH LIGHT QPF
SIMILAR TO TODAY. GENERALLY QPF EXPECTANCY IN THE 0.01-0.1"
RANGE, BUT SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LIGHT
CONVECTIVE NATURE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
THE FORECAST IS STILL HOLDING ON TO A QUIETER ONE. THAT BEING
SAID, THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS BUT NOTHING FAR OUTSIDE OF NORMAL
FOR THE AREA.
AN OVERALL NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP SOME LOW-
END POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THEN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD GIVE CLEAR AND SUNNY
SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW-END POPS RETURN TO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS. THOSE PRECIP CHANCES WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY.
FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW, THUNDERSTORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. AS OF THIS WRITING, AROUND NOON TUESDAY,
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE CLEARER SKIES AND
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INTRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY SO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR NE WY TO NW SD AND
TRACK SOUTHEAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT
ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
THE SHOWERS AND STORM POTENTIAL RETURN TOMORROW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL SWING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHORTWAVE WOULD
BRING SOME LIFT AND IS PROJECTED TO GET SOME SHOWERS GOING FOR
THOSE MAINLY AROUND THE BLACK HILLS AND IN NW SD, ALTHOUGH PARTS
OF CENTRAL SD CAN'T BE RULED OUT. AND WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FORECASTED, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE THIS WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE STUCK IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE LOOKING WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER
STILL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
THE EFI TABLES ARE NOT HIGHLIGHTING HIGHLY ELEVATED WINDS THIS
WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE SOME
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY. WINDS WILL
SWING TO THE NORTHWEST AND PICK UP SPEEDS TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH,
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH. WIND SPEEDS LIKE THIS AREN'T BAD FOR WHAT
WE ARE USED TO BUT IT'S A CHANGE FROM TODAY. NOTHING EXTREME, JUST
DIFFERENT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDS IN THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SD. LOCAL MVFR CONDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...DYE
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...GS
AVIATION...JC
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