365  
FXUS63 KUNR 220507  
AFDUNR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD  
1107 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST  
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO  
THE DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW ALONG THE CA COAST,  
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE  
REGION. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. WINDS  
ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH IN MOST AREAS.  
 
WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF NICE WEATHER, WITH SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL START  
TO CHANGE SOME AFTER THAT, WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, IT WILL STAY  
RELATIVELY MILD.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND  
THE FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY FROM  
WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TUESDAY HIGHS  
ARE PROJECTED TO BE SIMILAR WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SOME  
INCREASING CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY.  
 
UPPER LOW ALONG THE CA COAST WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AS A WEAKENING  
TROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, MOVING INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN  
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH WEST-  
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS SEASONABLE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THIS MORE  
ACTIVE FLOW COULD BRING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER  
SOME ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES BEYOND THIS  
TIME, SO A BLENDED MODEL FORECAST IS REASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO  
THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...26  
AVIATION...SHERBURN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SD Page
The Nexlab WY Page Main Text Page