161
FXUS63 KUNR 121046
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
346 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS TODAY AND TUESDAY
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS.
- STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
US WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITTING UNDER WNW FLOW. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR SAVE FOR A THIN VEIL OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS ND. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO LOW 40S.
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ON TAP WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE
DOWNSLOPING WILL OCCUR. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN SD WHERE GUSTS OF 35 TO
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WEAK CLIPPER AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS BUT CHANCES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN LOW (LREF PROBS FOR 0.1+" OF QPF
FOR THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM 0-30% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 30-50%
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS). MOST SPOTS SHOULD SEE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS
SEEING SNOW. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
TUESDAY MORNING WITH BELT OF STRONG (40-55KT) H85-H70 WINDS MOVING
OVER THE REGION. SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PLAINS AND OUR USUAL GUSTY SPOTS IN THE
FOOTHILLS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH NORTHEASTERN WY
AND FAR WESTERN SD SEEING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S AND AREAS
TOWARDS CENTRAL SD SEEING HIGHS IN THE 30S. NEXT SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS. FIRST COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING MODEST 3HR PRESSURE RISES OF
2 TO 5 MB. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 55-60KT GUSTS
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. WINDS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH EFI
DEPICTING 80-90TH PERCENTILE GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
MOISTURE WITH THESE FRONTS IS LOOKING TO BE RATHER LIMITED BUT
COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND
NORTHWESTERN SD LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GUSTS OF 35KT EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN SD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 343 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO 25 TO
35%. THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS (10-20 GUSTING TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF UP TO
40 MPH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD) WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE RHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHER (RANGING FROM 45-60%), STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30 MPH, GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS. WHILE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WETTING PRECIP LOOKS UNLIKELY.
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A PAIR OF
COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 50-60MPH+ POSSIBLE. NOT MUCH MOISTURE EXPECTED
WITH THESE FRONTS SO WETTING PRECIP LOOKS UNLIKELY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...WONG
FIRE WEATHER...WONG
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