707
FXUS63 KUNR 151804
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1204 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH WITH SPORADIC GUSTS OF 60
MPH EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER TROF AXIS DRAPED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ATTENDANT SFC FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE
CWA WITH 3 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 3-4 MB BEHIND IT. THE PRESSURE
RISES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. STATIONS
ACROSS WESTERN SD HAVE BEGUN TO REPORT GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH, THESE
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. WHILE
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, THE MAJORITY OF GUSTS
SHOULD BE AROUND 45 TO 55 MPH.
CAA AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FREEZING/SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. EXPECTING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS. NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ARRIVE LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROF DEEPENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN US, THOUGH IT'S STILL TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE ANY
SPECIFICS ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES OR TIMING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 45KTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WESTERN SD
PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
012>014-026-030>032-041>043-072-073-077-078.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-072>078.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ046-047-049.
WY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
WYZ054>056-058>060.
DISCUSSION...WONG
AVIATION...HELGESON
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