303
FXUS63 KUNR 162036
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 PM MDT FRI APR 16 2021
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT FRI APR 16 2021
THE UPPER LOW IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AT THIS TIME,
AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING NEAR THE MT/ND/SD
BORDERS. THIS WAVE IS BRINGING DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES BEHIND
IT. KUDX RADAR SHOWS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING AS TEMPS COOL
AND THE UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE CWA. QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY, MAKING INTO THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BEHIND IT, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NE WY THROUGH FAR
WESTERN SD. HOWEVER, WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THE BLACK HILLS TO SEE 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW, POSSIBLY
MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MODELS
TREND WITH THE 00Z RUN, ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. A WEAK WAVE ON TUESDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTHERN HILLS, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI APR 16 2021
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS COVER THE CWA, WITH IFR CONDITIONS FROM
THE BLKHLS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SWRN-SCNTRL SD. LIGHT SNOW/RAIN
COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN MORE OF A SHOWERY FASHION, BUT THEN TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS
EVENING. CIGS WILL BE LIFTING GRADUALLY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, WITH VFR CIGS BY 06Z FOR MUCH OF THE NWRN
HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVER SCNTRL SD AND
PARTS OF THE BLKHLS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...BUNKERS
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