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FXUS63 KUNR 010436
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1036 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH OUR WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY
ON SATURDAY LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES OR UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING. THE
REGION SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY QUIET AND DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS, WITH DAILY DIURNAL PERIODS OF ONLY MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS
AND A FEW PASSING CLOUDS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. A REVIEW
OF THE 00Z HREF SUITE OF CAMS STILL DOESN'T OFFER MUCH SUPPORT
FOR SQUEEZING A SHOWER OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND SO WE CONTINUE TO
KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
OUR WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL SLATED FOR
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
ND. CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A FEW LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS INDICATING SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWESTERN
SD. A GLANCE AT WEBCAMS SHOWS THAT WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS HIGH
BASED, PRECIP IS INDEED MAKING IT TO THE SFC. HAVE PAINTED LIGHT
POPS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST SD FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN REACHES OF OUR CWA THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER AND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS EVENING
WITH A CHILLY, CALM, AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. CAMS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARDS CENTRAL
SD FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY DRY. SO
WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT, HIGH BASED SHOWERS TOWARDS
CENTRAL SD ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, IT'S UNLIKELY ANYTHING WILL MAKE
IT TO THE GROUND. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OF POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE CWA FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HUMIDITIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO 15% ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN SD WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. THIS WOULD PUT US
NEAR OR AT RED FLAG CRITERIA THOUGH THE RECENT PRECIP AND FUELS
IN GREEN UP PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY SUNDAY, BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW BACK TO THE
REGION. UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA AND
GRAZES THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SD ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS WAVE
MOVES THROUGH, THOUGH NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IN GOOD CONSENSUS OF A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN US FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS UNDER UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS A
RESULT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT THU APR 30 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GOOD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE EARLY
WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SLATED FOR SUNDAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...KSMITH
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...SCHWEIGERT
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