327
FXUS63 KUNR 032350
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
450 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS TAPERS AND ENDS THIS
EVENING, LEAVING TOTALS OF 1-3" IN SOME LOCATIONS
- WELL-ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
- THURSDAY MAY BRING RECORD WARMTH
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON BETRAYS THE PRESENCE OF A
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A CUTOFF LOW SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FALLEN SHY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.
WIDESPREAD FOG EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS MORNING HAS RETREATED
EAST, BUT STRATUS REMAINS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS OF
BOTH RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUE TO FALL IN BLACK HILLS AND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE HILLS WHERE CONFLUENT FLOW PROVIDES A LITTLE
EXTRA FORCING FOR ASCENT.
TONIGHT
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING SHOWERS TO TAPER AND END WITH THE LAST
FEW SNOWFLAKES FALLING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE
SUNRISE. FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI RIVER,
BUT VISIBILITY SHOULD BE IMPACTED LITTLE TO NONE IN WESTERN SODAK
AND EASTERN WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
H5 RIDGING NOSES OVER THE THE CWA MID-WEEK, OPENING THE DOOR TO
EVEN WARMER TEMPS. EXPECT MOSTLY 50S FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 60S BEING
CALLED FOR OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA
ABETTED BY SUNNY SKIES AND WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS MAY MANAGE 70 WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
CURRENT RECORDS
67 IN 1963 | RC DOWNTOWN
63 IN 2024 | RC AIRPORT
68 IN 1963 | PHILIP
51 IN 2009 | CUSTER
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY LEAVING FRIDAY ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER, THOUGH STILL WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. THE RIDGING OVERHEAD BECOMES LESS DEFINED AND
TRENDS TOWARD A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD
BRING A PERIOD OF SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND BETTER OPPORTUNITIES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 450 PM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
PERSISTENT AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL SD MAY IMPROVE
SOME THIS EVENING BUT WILL RETURN TONIGHT...AND PUSH FARTHER WEST
TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS (AND INCLUDE THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS).
THIS MAY INCLUDE PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY. VFR IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED WEST TO EAST WED MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...13
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