576
FXUS63 KUNR 220514
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 PM MST THU NOV 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- BREEZY AND COOLER SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE (20-30%) OF LIGHT SNOW.
- UNSETTLED WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM MST THU NOV 21 2024
WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, RIDGE IS OVER THE
DAKOTAS WITH RETURN FLOW IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S/40S.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND GENERALLY MILD TEMPS BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD ON SATURDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG WITH
THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO EVEN COOLER TEMPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST SD SATURDAY.
AN UPPER TROF WILL KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT, PROBABLY NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT GUSTY
NONETHELESS. A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW MAY FALL WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE NEGLIGIBLE
GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE.
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPS EXPECTED. EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THE FLOW MAY BRING SOME
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THANKSGIVING AND MAY LEAD TO EVEN COLDER WEATHER FOR THE TAIL END
OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MST THU NOV 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JOHNSON
AVIATION...POJORLIE
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