974
FXUS63 KUNR 061110
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
510 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, THE SMOKE COULD LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.
- MAINLY DRY THIS WEEK WITH VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, CHANCES FOR RAIN
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS SOUTH-CENTRAL SD WHERE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- HOT WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW WITH THE HOT, HIGHS IN THE 90S
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 21Z THURSDAY, BUT TEMPS
WILL STILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 90S BEFORE IT COMES THROUGH. PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS TRENDED DOWN AND IS UNLIKELY (<10%).
EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS (RH < 15%) ARE STILL EXPECTED, PRIMARILY
IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER DAY OF SUNNY BUT HAZY/SMOKEY SKIES OVER THE
CWA. THE SMOKE HAD A LITTLE BIT OF AN IMPACT TO THE AIR QUALITY
WITH SENSORS REACHING THE MODERATE STAGE AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD, AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
80S WITH CONTINUED SUNNY, BUY HAZY, SKIES. TONIGHT WILL BE CALM
AND CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO RETURN TO
THE AREA, WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER. DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. TEMPS THAT WARM AND VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE RH VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 10 TO 20
PERCENT. A PASSING FRONT WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
THURSDAY. THAT COMBINATION OF STRONGER WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BECAUSE OF THAT, A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
THERE ARE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT COULD BE THE TRIGGER TO GET SOME
THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THOSE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING
MAIN CONCERNS IF THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO GET GOING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL SD.
THE 90S AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HINTS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER IS A CONCERN AS THE FORECASTED WIND
PATTERN HAS BEEN KNOWN TO PRODUCE STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER AND
MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER MODELS ARE TARGETING THE BLACK
HILLS WITH ELEVATED CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1156 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NW SD AND FAR SW
SD. IT WILL GO INTO EFFECT THURSDAY AT 11AM MDT AND IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 8PM MDT.
HOT AND DRY WEATHER BEGINS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TOMORROW.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS. LOW HUMIDITY, DOWN TO NEAR
10 TO 20% FOR THOSE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA, IS POSSIBLE.
AND WITH AN INCOMING FRONT, WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE.
WITH THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND LOWERED RH VALUES, THE RED FLAG
WARNING WAS ISSUED.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS COULD BE ELEVATED
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF REACHING RED FLAG WARNING THRESHOLDS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR SDZ322-327.
WY...
UPDATE...SCHWEIGERT
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...WONG
FIRE WEATHER...GS
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