400
FXUS63 KUNR 261117
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
417 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH COLDER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND.
- SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER UPSTREAM, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY PUSHING THROUGH THE IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN MT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
THE THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS THIS MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IN ID/MT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS NE
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AFTER 17-18Z; NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION AN INCH
OR LESS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.
SUBTLE RIDGING IS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME THANKSGIVING
AND FRIDAY, WITH 30S AND 40S BOTH DAYS; WARMEST ACROSS SW SD.
PREDICTABILITY IN THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND'S SYSTEM HAS INCREASED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
(HIGHLIGHTED VIA Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE) OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. OVERALL, SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND
1-2" (~25-75TH PERCENTILE SNOW) ON THE PLAINS, WITH 3-6" IN THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED. SNOW
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF AS SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO 20S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 0F.
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND WESTERN TROUGHING IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KICR WILL SLOWLY ABATE AFTER
14-16Z THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TODAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN NE WY AND THE BLACK HILLS WITH TRANSIENT MVFR
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KGCC, THUS KEPT MENTION OF PRECIP/LOW CEILINGS OUT OF THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE
AVIATION...SE
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