378
FXUS63 KUNR 262339
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
539 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FAVORED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA.
- COOLER, UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
CURRENT UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT THE
LINGERING UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SK/MB, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW AND A SECOND LOW POSITIONED OVER
UT/CO. WV IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN FROM NE/WY, ALONG WITH EXPANDING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL SD (PER REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AND
WEBCAMS). CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
AND 40S WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS, GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, ALLOWING THE SECOND SURFACE-LOW TO MOVE OFF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS SECOND LOW WILL BE THE
DRIVING FACTOR FOR THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION FOR
TODAY AND INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS PLACE THE
LOW OVER CO, PROGRESSING NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR ON AND OFF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING EXACT QPF TOTALS DUE TO DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN ENSEMBLES/MODELS (E.G. NBM, HREF, ECMWF). EVEN WITH THIS
UNCERTAINTY, THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL SD, WHERE AT LEAST 0.75" OF LIQUID REMAINS POSSIBLE (65 TO
75% CHANCE, NBM-CONUS). SOUTHWESTERN SD AND THE BLACK HILLS MAY
STILL RECEIVE AT LEAST 0.5" OF LIQUID (55 TO 75% CHANCE, NBM-CONUS),
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OVER NORTHWESTER SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS MAY RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW,
WHILE 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE-LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
(35 TO 45 MPH) WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SD PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS.
AS THE SURFACE-LOW DEPARTS, DRIER BUT STILL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AFTER MONDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO IFR CIGS. SNOW/FOG/DRIZZLE WILL
ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/IFR THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENTS TO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS PRECIP GRADUALLY ENDS
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOST AREAS
WILL SEE MVFR CIGS LINGER THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...13
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