303  
FXUS63 KUNR 162036  
AFDUNR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD  
236 PM MDT FRI APR 16 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT FRI APR 16 2021  
 
THE UPPER LOW IS CROSSING THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AT THIS TIME,  
AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE BACK INTO THE MAIN FLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY  
SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING NEAR THE MT/ND/SD  
BORDERS. THIS WAVE IS BRINGING DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES BEHIND  
IT. KUDX RADAR SHOWS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA  
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING AS TEMPS COOL  
AND THE UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE CWA. QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED  
FOR SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. MODELS  
CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA ON  
SUNDAY. AN UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY, MAKING INTO THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
BEHIND IT, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SNOWFALL  
AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NE WY THROUGH FAR  
WESTERN SD. HOWEVER, WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT, THERE IS A  
POTENTIAL FOR THE BLACK HILLS TO SEE 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW, POSSIBLY  
MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MODELS  
TREND WITH THE 00Z RUN, ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS AND LOW LEVEL  
INSTABILITY. A WEAK WAVE ON TUESDAY MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO  
THE NORTHERN HILLS, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS GENERALLY EXPECTED  
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI APR 16 2021  
 
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS COVER THE CWA, WITH IFR CONDITIONS FROM  
THE BLKHLS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SWRN-SCNTRL SD. LIGHT SNOW/RAIN  
COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
IN MORE OF A SHOWERY FASHION, BUT THEN TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS  
EVENING. CIGS WILL BE LIFTING GRADUALLY FROM NORTHWEST TO  
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, WITH VFR CIGS BY 06Z FOR MUCH OF THE NWRN  
HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT  
OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW  
MORNING, BUT WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVER SCNTRL SD AND  
PARTS OF THE BLKHLS.  
 

 
   
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...13  
AVIATION...BUNKERS  
 
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