865
FXUS63 KUNR 071110
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
410 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TODAY, COOLER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MOVE IN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK 500HPA WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ONLY MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SUCH. FURTHER WEST, SPLIT FLOW IS
TAKING SHAPE WITH DEEPENING 500HPA LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CA/BAJA CA
COASTS WITH OPEN TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE, WARM
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM CENTRAL MT INTO NORTHEAST WY
WITH TEMPERATURES AT 09Z HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IS ON TAP FOR TODAY AS
THE WARM FRONT/TROUGH PUSHES TO THE WEST. 850HPA TEMPS RANGE FROM
+6 TO +8C WITH WESTERLY WINDS SETTING UP. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SHOW 2M TEMP PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 55F ON THE FOOTHILLS AND
SD PLAINS AT 60% OR HIGHER. WITH EXITING CLOUD SHIELD AND
DRYNESS...HAVE NUDGED INHERITED HIGHS UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AS
IT SEEMS HIGHS HAVE OVER PERFORMED LATELY.
AS UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO TURN SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS BRINGING AN END TO THE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS. WHILE NOT OVERLY MOISTURE LADEN, THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH FRONTOGENESIS TO SQUEEZE OUT WHAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THERE IS, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLACK
HILLS. WITH THE SPLIT FLOW ALOFT, A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT AREAS WELL SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY,
WHILE STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER
THAN WHAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED TODAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES IN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 700HPA WAVE DROPPING
THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALSO
PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOW OF COLDER AIR TO THE
FORECAST AREA...DROPPING HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK DOWN TO MORE JANUARY
LIKE READINGS. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE CLIPPER FEEL OF THIS
SYSTEM, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
AGAIN, MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY ABUNDANT BUT FORCING SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WRING OUT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE BLACK
HILLS, WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ON THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND HINTING AT THE TYPE OF
PATTERN WHERE A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS SD,
WITH A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THIS BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS SETS UP WILL PLAY A CRITICAL PART IN
TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVIAL THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER 08/00Z TURNING THE WINDS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HINTZ
AVIATION...HINTZ
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