372
FXUS63 KUNR 141717
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1017 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND AND DRIER WEATHER STARTS TODAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK
- UNSETTLED AND COOLER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE ROCKIES WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA ARE SLOWLY RISING AS WAA COMMENCES
ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH MANY STATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND DRAMATICALLY TODAY THANKS TO STRONG WAA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WY WHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD WILL BE ON THE
COOLER SIDE BUT STILL 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE WHAT THEY WERE
YESTERDAY.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. HIGHS
TUESDAY BE IN THE 50S TO 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE GRAZES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING COLDER AIR AND CHANCES
FOR RAIN/SNOW INTO THE REGION. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIP AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT BUT WILL BE MONITORING AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF COLD AIR AND
MORE CHANCES AT LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...HINTZ
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