249
FXUS63 KUNR 081121
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
421 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
- 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US.
LEAD SHORTWAVE IS EJECTING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SFC LOW
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK
RETURNS OVER NORTHWESTERN SD THOUGH A GLANCE AT WEBCAMS IN THE AREA
SHOW PRECIP ISN'T MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. THE CWA SITS UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO 30S.
THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE DAKOTAS
TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION WITH
CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. EXPECTING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TO BE OVER THE
BLACK HILLS WHERE THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. IN TERMS OF SNOW TOTALS,
FORECAST STILL ON TRACK TO SEE AROUND 1-3" OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WY. FRIDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S.
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
FORCING TO SUPPORT CHANCES (30-50%) FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER WESTERN SD,
THE BLACK HILLS, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY. NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN TERMS OF SNOW AMOUNTS, THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS COULD PICK
UP ANOTHER 1 TO 3" OF SNOW WITH A DUSTING ON THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
AFTER ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL DAY SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO 50S. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WY INTO THE
BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...WONG
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