638
FXUS63 KUNR 280007
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
607 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS/SHOWERS DAILY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
- SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
THE BLACK HILLS, SOUTHWEST SD, AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
- WARMING UP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
BLACK HILLS AS OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DESTABILIZATION WILL
CONTINUE AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM TO THE 80S TO LOW 90S. WHILE MOST
OF THE EXPECTED STORMS WILL BE BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS, WE CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE BLACK HILLS AND IN SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE HAIL AND WIND.
FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND ONLY A
FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY. OVERALL, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO CHANGE A LITTLE BIT AS WELL. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US LOOKS TO SLIDE EAST.
THIS WOULD GIVE THE AREA WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, OPENING THE DOOR
FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW, THE THINKING IS
THAT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD START IN CENTRAL WYOMING, AND
NEAR THE BLACK HILLS, AND THOSE STORMS WOULD THEN TRACK EASTWARD.
SPC AND MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING
SOME RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER, BUT IT'S MARGINAL (15% CHANCE OR
LESS) FOR NOW. SO WE CAN'T RULE SEVERE STORMS OUT BUT IT'S NOT A
CLEAR SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.
LINGERING LOW END CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS LAST WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS STILL ON THE DRY SIDE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO
90S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY AND
NW SD OVERNIGHT. THEN BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONG
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...13
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