278
FXUS63 KUNR 112258
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
458 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WEATHER IS SLIDING INTO THE AREA TODAY SO HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR WESTON COUNTY DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS/SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS UNTIL 7PM
MDT.
- THE NEXT ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
COOLER WEATHER IS SETTLING INTO THE REGION TODAY. IT'S BEING
DRIVEN INTO THE AREA BY STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
HIGHEST REPORTED WIND GUSTS (AS OF 1PM) HAVE BEEN UPWARDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH. FOR TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT SPEEDS WILL REALLY DECREASE MAINLY AFTER 9PM.
ISOLATED RAIN AND THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA THAT
STRETCHES FROM NE WY TO NW SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND RAIN AMOUNTS WON'T ADD
UP TO MUCH.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO
70S. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SWING BACK TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS REALLY INCREASING SUNDAY, AFTERNOON
GUSTS WILL BE UPWARDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH, STRONGEST SPEEDS IN THE SD
PLAINS.
ISOLATED RAIN AND THUNDERSHOWER CHANCES RETURN TO THE SD PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE, MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH IF ANYTHING. BUT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE CWA WILL TRACK
EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND LIKELY TRAVEL NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THOSE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE SPC AND
MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING DRY WITH LOW-END CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 455 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NORTH
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NW SD OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SW SD AND PARTS OF NE WY UNTIL
7 PM MDT THIS EVENING. THIS IS FOR STRONG, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN TO 12 TO 18 PERCENT.
LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 60S TO 70S. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 30 TO 50 PERCENT. WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONG AGAIN TOMORROW
(SATURDAY) FOR AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS IN THE WY AND SD
PLAINS. SIMILAR WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ321-322-325-
326-332-333.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ317.
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...GS
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