444
FXUS63 KUNR 061122
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
422 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
- MILD TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, TURNING COOLER WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH ONE 500HPA WAVE
EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS
NRN WY. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL ND
WITH WEAK SURFACE TROF LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY. TEMPS AT 09Z
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THE NEXT 500HPA/700HPA WAVE TRAVERSING ACROSS NRN WY BRINGS WITH
IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NRN
COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, IF THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE.
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING PCPN PROBABILITIES OF >0.01 PCPN FROM 15-20%
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, AND THE HRRR CONCURS WITH ITS COMP
REFL FORECAST THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE NAM IS ALSO
SHOWING SOME MINOR 850-700HPA FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH 15Z, SEEMED
PRUDENT TO ADD IN SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING.
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD AS THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL. SOME
QUICK MOVING RIPPLES TRAVERSE ALOFT, BUT WITH MEAGER MOISTURE JUST
DO NOT SEE ANYTHING TO HANG ONES HAT ON FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.
BY THURSDAY, UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS AS LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. BY 00Z SATURDAY THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 850HPA TEMPS BACK BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS. WITH SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH, PCPN CHANCES
RETURN BACK TO THE REGION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
A FEW FLURRIES OR SPINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH IMPACTS TO AVIATION. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFT 07/06Z ACROSS NORTHEAST WY, WITH
GUSTS TO 30KTS POSSIBLE.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HINTZ
AVIATION...HINTZ
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