196
FXUS63 KUNR 120459
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1059 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-WARM AND BREEZY THIS WEEK WITH CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES
-COOLER LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE-LOW OVER SOUTHERN MB WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MN, BRINING WITH IT THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
INITIATING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING ONLY VIRGA. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL SD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY IS STILL ON TRACK TO SEE A BRIEF COOLDOWN
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, RH'S IN THE UPPER-TEENS
TO LOW-20S, AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, INCREASING TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY. TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
(MONDAY) WITH RH'S DROPPING INTO THE MID-TEENS AND GUSTY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. A RFW MY BE WARRANTED AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHERE CRITERIA OVERLAP. THIS
WILL REQUIRE A REEVALUATION TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL
SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS WEDNESDAY, THOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PUSH THERE WAY IN TO NORTHEASTERN WY AND NORTHWESTERN SD.
ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THIS WEEK,
SUPPORTING WARM AND DRY WEATHER. RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSES WILL
SUPPORT WEAK COOL FRONTS AT TIMES, WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP WITH
EACH SYSTEM. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES, WITH AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING COOL
FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 80S AND LOW
90S UNDER BREEZY SSW FLOW. COOL FRONT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY NW WINDS
FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD WHERE DEEPLY MIXED PROFILES WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER, GIVEN SUCH LOW PROBS, LEFT THINGS DRY
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. DID ADD SOME LOW POPS FOR JET STREAK INDUCED
HIGH BASED SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH CENTERED MOISTURE, WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY, AND ENTRANCE
REGION JET STREAK FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW VERY
HIGH BASED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
COOLER TUES WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THINGS WARM BACK UP WED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE WITH 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. EXPECT BREEZY
SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THUR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED. THUR'S HIGH TEMPS WILL HINGE ON
FRONTAL TIMING, WITH A FASTER FROPA LEADING TOWARD COOLER TEMPS,
ESP IN THE WEST. THERE COULD ALSO BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WED NIGHT INTO THUR WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NW,
HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW ATTM. YET ANOTHER IMPULSE
EXPECTED FRI-SAT WITH A NEAR REPEAT OF WED-THUR. HOWEVER, A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, LEADING TO MUCH
COOLER TEMPS BY SUNDAY AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY BETTER (ALBEIT STILL
LOW) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SD
PLAINS WITH SOME AREA SEEING GUSTS TO 20 KTS. THEN STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUE MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS,
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING IN THE EARLY
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
WARM, DRY AND, BREEZY CONDS WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SD. COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF BREEZY NW WINDS WITH RISING RH. COOLER TUES WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. RH'S WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
TUES, SUPPORTING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDS FOR
MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. THINGS WILL WARM BACK UP AND DRY
OUT WED, WITH GUSTY SE WINDS DEVELOPING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDS WHERE SUFFICIENT
GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
LIKELY. WITH THE DRY AND BREEZY PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY, CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD FOR AREAS LACKING NORMAL MAY GREEN UP. A
STRONG COOL FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER RH AND SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS EARLY NEXT, WITH A PAUSE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULTZ
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...JC
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