132
FXUS63 KUNR 131718
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1018 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. SOME SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 45-50
MPH EXPECTED.
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN HIGH WIND EVENT OVER WESTERN SD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GUSTS OF 70+ MPH POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN
SD.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
WEST COAST. THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES CRESTING THE RIDGE AND MOVING OVER THE DAKOTAS.
SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC TROF EXTENDING FROM NORTHWESTERN SD
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WY. TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR REMAIN MILD WITH
STATIONS RECORDING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO 50S. A FEW STATIONS
AROUND RAPID CITY ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. NORTHWEST
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE STURGIS AND
BUFFALO AIRPORTS REPORTING OCCASIONAL 40+MPH GUSTS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS SFC TROF CROSSES
THE REGION. FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SD TODAY. HAVE
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE WIND ADVISORY TODAY. BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
WITH THIS FRONT TO SUPPORT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT TO 1 TO 3 IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK
HILLS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD. AS OF
RIGHT NOW, THIS EVENT IS NOT LOOKING LIKE IT'LL BE AS STRONG AS
THE HISTORIC WIND EVENT WE HAD IN DECEMBER. THAT BEING SAID, ECMWF
EFI IS DEPICTING 70TH-80TH PERCENTILE GUSTS OVER WESTERN SD FOR
THURSDAY AND 80TH-90TH PERCENTILE GUSTS FOR FRIDAY. FOR TIMING, IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL RAMP UP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MODEST PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 3 MB
AND STRONG CAA WILL SUPPORT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING 40-50KT GUSTS MIXING TO THE SFC ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN SD. NBM PAINTS 60-80% PROBS FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A 30- 50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF OVER 60 MPH ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD. SECONDARY FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH STRONGER WINDS BEHIND IT. NBM SHOWS 70-90+% PROBS OF
GUSTS OF 60+MPH OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD. SOME SPOTS IN THE USUAL "SQUEEZE" SPOTS IN THE
STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS COULD SEE GUSTS OF
70+MPH (60-80%). CERTAINLY LOOKING LIKE WE'LL BE DEALING WITH A
HIGH WIND EVENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP,
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND FORCING OFF TO
OUR EAST WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES LIMITED.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
A SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS
THIS MORNING WITH TRANSIENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KRAP AND
KGCC ARE LOW THIS AFTERNOON (<30%). HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF
RAIN SHOWERS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 338 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS
LIMITED WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S, HUMIDITIES RANGING FROM 25 TO 40%, AND VERY
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 60+ MPH WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
AND EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ001-012-013-
031-041-072-073-078.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...SE
FIRE WEATHER...WONG
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