015
FXUS63 KUNR 112312
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
412 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
- MILD AND DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
AT TIMES
- STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COUPLE OF MOSTLY
DRY COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WARM FRONT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH
PLENTY OF SOLAR INSOLATION OVER THE CWA MELTING THE SNOW FROM
LEMMON TO WINNER PER 0.5KM VISIBLE SATELLITE MATINEE. MILD
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE WITH VERY LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS
NEAR KSPF/KRCA GIVEN VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE/MARGINALLY GUSTY
WINDS. WATER VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS
WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE MOVES LITTLE. A SERIES OF MOISTURE-
STARVED WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
MIDWEST. FIRST ONE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS, BUT
THEN A BETTER ONE FOR TUESDAY, PUSHING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN REACHES OF THE CWA. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE RATHER TIGHT. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED MONDAY, BUT SWITCHING TO WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION PER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THUS, BEST POTENTIAL FOR
DEEPEST MIXING WILL BE TUESDAY, TAKING ADVANTAGE OF 35-45KT 800MB
WIND SPEEDS. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY (NBM 50-80%
CHANCE >45MPH GUSTS) WITH LESSER CHANCES MONDAY (NBM <25% CHANCE
>45 MPH GUSTS). HREF EVEN LESS EXCITED ABOUT MONDAY. WEAKER WINDS
FORESEEN WEDNESDAY. LOW POPS WARRANTED TUESDAY, FOCUSING ON THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS, BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR GUIDANCE, EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS WHERE ABOVE
GUIDANCE PAINTED.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. IT WILL PUSH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AND A SECONDARY FRONT FRIDAY. BOTH FRONTS WILL HAVE
MODERATE/STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS. PATTERN
AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS. >50% CHANCE >55MPH GUSTS THURSDAY AND 50-80%
CHANCE >55MPH GUSTS FRIDAY. ECMWF EFI 60-80TH PERCENTILE GUSTS FOR
THURSDAY AND 80-90TH FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER
BY FRIDAY WITH SOME PATCHY SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BLACK HILLS
BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 412 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 118 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
VERY LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KSPF/KRCA
WILL QUICKLY END BY SUNSET. DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY. MONDAY, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE 20S
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA, RISING TO THE 40S/50S FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 20-30G50MPH ON THE OPEN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WETTING
PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS TWO
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTS BRING STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...HELGESON
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