171
FXUS63 KUNR 181930
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
130 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION, AS UPPER RIDGE SITS TO OUR EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHEASTERN SD
DOWN INTO CENTRAL WY, MOSTLY THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA NOW.
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE
BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY (THOUGH STILL STICK
ABOVE NORMAL FOR OCT), GIVEN FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE AREA. RETURN
FLOW WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST
BUILD A BIT, PROMPTING WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S
BRIEFLY. ANOTHER (DRY) FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND ATTACHMENT BEHIND IT, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES AGAIN. THAT IS SHORT LIVED THOUGH, AS RIDGE BALLOONS
UP ONCE AGAIN, BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 FOR SOME AREAS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE MAY SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AT TIMES, BUT FORECAST AFTERNOON RH'S ONLY DIP INTO THE 20-40
PERCENT RANGE. NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION COMES
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK DEVELOPING INTO A WAVE AND SLIDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL FAR
ENOUGH OUT THAT THERE'S LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR LOCATION OF
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WY TONIGHT,
SPREADING INTO NORTHWESTERN SD MONDAY MORNING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...HELGESON
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