366
FXUS63 KUNR 110454
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1054 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SLOWLY TAPERS OFF TONIGHT.
- HIGH WIND WATCH THURSDAY WITH WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTING
OVER 70 MPH LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT.
- PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTH
OF I-90.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD, LONG-WAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING
FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS STOUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. AS OF 1030PM MDT, SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD WITH
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND
FOOTHILLS. SNOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z AS
SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD AND BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND
750-500 MB EXITS THE REGION.
CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY WITH MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH SNOW COVER MAY LIMIT
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS IN EARNEST THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES, WARMEST ON THE SD PLAINS. A STRONG CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN CANADA. COLD AIR
ADVECTION + STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM SURFACE TO ~600MB + 70-80 KNOT
WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS 65-80+ MPH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT;
ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING.
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECTING A LONGER DURATION LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EVENT
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH RAIN/SNOW LINE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RENDER LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS. BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE BLACK HILLS (NBM PROB >6" ~30-50% IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BLACK HILLS) WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ON THE
PLAINS, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-90 (NBM PROBS >4" ~40% ON THE
PLAINS NORTH OF I-90 AND ~20% SOUTH OF I-90).
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND ATTENDANT IFR CONDITIONS WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 08Z/2AM AT KRAP. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A PROGRESSIVE
TREND BACK TO VFR OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH AT LEAST FEW TO SCT LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY ADJACENT
TO THE BLACK HILLS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD DOMINATE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHTLY BREEZY BUT MUCH QUIETER DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 70 ON THE PLAINS WITH RH ~20-30%
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NE WY PLAINS AND FROM MEADE COUNTY PLAINS
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25-
35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST, FIRST ACROSS NW SD AND
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN
EXCESS OF 60-70 MPH ARE LIKELY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SD
PLAINS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-
072>078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR SDZ024.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR WYZ054>056-058>060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ057.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE
AVIATION...KSMITH
FIRE WEATHER...SE
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