418
FXUS63 KUNR 182356
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
456 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
- FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE OVER THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS BRING GUSTY WINDS, FLUCTUATING
TEMPERATURES, AND SOME SNOW AT TIMES
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
20Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS GINORMOUS LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
AREA, PRODUCING STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
CONUS. TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY
SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA, PRODUCING VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WERE MAINLY IN THE 30S THROUGH MIDDAY, AND ARE CURRENTLY ON THE
DOWN-TREND AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.
CURRENT WIND HEADLINES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE, AS 60 TO 70 MPH GUSTS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANTICIPATE HEADLINES WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AROUND 5PM THIS AFTERNOON AS BEST PRESSURE RISES QUICKLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. COLD AIR WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS BY
MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO
TO 20 BELOW FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY WRIGGLING BACK
AND FORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING A RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES FROM THE 20S TO THE 40S FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
EACH DAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY,
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN.
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING THAT THE AREA WILL SEE ITS FIRST
QUALITY ARCTIC INTRUSION LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN, WITH LIKELY HIGH
TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE WEEKEND AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY, AND
EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 455 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. GUSTS TO 30-40KT ARE
POSSIBLE. MVFR CIGS OVER NW SD WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page