469
FXUS63 KUNR 041913
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
113 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 50 MPH.
- ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ACTIVE NORTHWESTERN FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOSED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO
WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CA COAST. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 11Z THIS MORNING AND NOW
STRETCHES FROM THE SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN NE.
WEAK MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE RESULTED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-90. GIVEN DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK FORCING, EXPECT
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 35-40 KNOT WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN SD PLAINS THROUGH 6 PM MDT.
ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (5-10F BELOW NORMAL) BEFORE WARMER AIR FILTERS
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH SEASONABLE TO ABOVE AVERAGE (~5-10F)
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW SD WITH GUSTS UP TO
45KT. LIGHT SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS MVFR CIGS) ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE RAIN SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS LATE ENOUGH, IT COULD CHANGE TO SNOW, RESULTING IN
POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TONIGHT.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-
073-078.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE
AVIATION...DYE
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