271
FXUS63 KUNR 191954
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1254 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
COULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES
- STRONG WINDS TOMORROW WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD ON WEDNESDAY.
- STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW COLD IT WILL GET THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION INTO THE MID WEST AND
SOUTHEASTERN US. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SITS JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE US. THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS UNDER ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH A 70-90KT JET AT H300 ABOVE THE CWA. TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 30S. BREEZY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN SD WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OVER NORTHWESTERN SD.
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. THE SFC LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SNOW. WHILE THE
WINDS AREN'T LOOKING AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RECENT EVENTS, PRESSURE
RISES OF 2-5 MB/3HR COULD STILL SUPPORT GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD, THE FOOTHILLS, AND ADJACENT PLAINS (NBM
PROBS OF 30- 50% FOR GUSTS >50 MPH). IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS,
THERE'S ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH UPSLOPE SNOW OVER
THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. THE GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
BLOWING SNOW WITH ASSOCIATED REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG PRESSURE RISES OF 4-6 MB/3HR AND 30-50 KT
WINDS AT H850-H700 WILL SUPPORT GUSTS OF 50+ MPH AT THE SFC (NBM
PROBS STILL DEPICT A 50-80% CHANCE FOR >50MPH GUSTS OVER
NORTHWESTERN SD). CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOK
PRETTY LOW AS STRONGEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, ANY ACCUMULATED SNOW
IN NORTHWESTERN SD FROM TUESDAY'S EVENT COULD BE BLOWN AROUND
WITH THE WINDS WEDNESDAY AND CAUSE MINOR IMPACTS (PWSSI DEPICTS
40% CHANCE FOR MINOR IMPACTS OVER NORTHERN HAAKON COUNTY WITH
20-30% CHANCE FOR MINOR IMPACTS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR). NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT WIND
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE CWA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS WITH
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SLIGHT CHANGES
IN THE LOCATION OF THE SFC HIGH WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON HOW
COLD IT'LL GET THIS WEEKEND. MOST RECENT DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE
TRENDED WARMER WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVING FURTHER EAST OF THE CWA
AS IT'S DISPLACED BY A SHORTWAVE. IN TERMS OF PRECIP, LOOKING AT
CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
GRAZES THE REGION BUT AS OF NOW, NOT EXPECTING MUCH, IF ANY,
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
10 KNOTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOMORROW OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT THE KGCC TERMINAL.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...WOODWARD
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