136
FXUS63 KUNR 122340
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
440 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND THEN
THURSDAY/FRIDAY
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT
QPF, LIKELY UPSLOPE-ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
- STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA WITH
MODEST GRADIENT CREATING GUSTY WINDS IN A FEW SPOTS ON THE WESTERN
SD PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR LOOP HAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS POKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A ZIPPY SHORTWAVE
OVER BC/AB. STREAM OF SUN-FILTERED HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
OVER THE CWA. EFFECT OF THIS SHORTWAVE THE MAIN SHORT TERM
CONCERN. THEN, ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
TONIGHT/TUESDAY, BC/AB SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. MODEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH 2-4MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND IT
STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 25-40KT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SQUEEZE AREAS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS WITH A 40-70% CHANCE OF >45MPH GUSTS. HAVE HOISTED
WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT. TREND FOR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY WETTER AS TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON PER WEAK QG/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE IS A CONCERN GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR, BUT FROUDE
NUMBERS/0-2KM MEAN RH FAVORABLE FOR A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT FOR THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS TUESDAY. SLRS ALSO A
CONCERN GIVEN SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING DURING THE DAY. SUSPECT
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
HREF HAS 50% CHANCE >0.25" QPF FOR THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS, BUT
THE 25-75TH PERCENTILE IS 0.1-0.7" INCHES LARGELY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN MOISTURE FOR NAM-BASED MEMBERS VS DRIER
OTHERS. LATER FORECASTS CAN HONE IN ON POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
HEADLINES IF TRENDS BECOME CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A LULL IN THE WIND WITH A TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST (WARMEST) TO EAST (COLDEST).
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT WILL PROPEL TWO
COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. FIRST ARRIVES EARLY THURSDAY AND
SECOND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
COMBINE WITH 35-60KT FORECAST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES TO
PRODUCE POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGH WIND WARNING
LEVEL GUSTS BOTH DAYS, BUT ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY. ~50% CHANCE
60MPH GUSTS THURSDAY AND 50-80% CHANCE 60+MPH GUSTS FRIDAY. FOR
THE PLAINS NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS FRIDAY, THE CHANCE OF
70MPH GUSTS IS 30-50%. SUSPECT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY 5-15F ABOVE NORMAL, BUT
THEN NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS MOSTLY
QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE SPREADS
ARE 15-20F.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUES, BRINING SOME RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. OTHERWISE, BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUES WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON TUESDAY (35-55%) WILL BE HIGHER THAN
TODAY, BUT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-50MPH WILL CREATE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THE
PLAINS WON'T AMOUNT TO MUCH, BUT WETTING PRECIPITATION FOR THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS (1-3" SNOW) IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 50-60MPH+ POSSIBLE. NOT MUCH MOISTURE EXPECTED
WITH THESE FRONTS SO WETTING PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR SDZ001-012-013-
031-072-073-078.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR SDZ041.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...HELGESON
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