260
FXUS63 KUNR 221723
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1123 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2019
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2019
WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A BIT OF LOW
CLOUDS ATTEMPTING TO WORK NORTH INTO OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
IN RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH. VERY PLEASANT TEMPS EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE 50S, WITH SOME 40S IN THE BLACK HILLS.
DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. ON
TUESDAY, A BIT MORE RETURN FLOW EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S AS THERMAL RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD INTO EASTERN WYOMING. CAPE
WILL INCREASE BUT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROF WORKS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT WITH
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES EXTENDING ONTO THE SD
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT CAPE WITH MODEST SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE 90S FOR MOST
PLAINS LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED
WITH IMPULSES IN THE FLOW BRINGING CHANCES FOR STORMS AT TIMES,
ALTHOUGH THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE IF NOT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2019
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD TODAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...15
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