822
FXUS63 KUNR 191741
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1141 AM MDT TUE MAR 19 2019
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT TUE MAR 19 2019
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD RIDGE OVER WESTERN MT INTO EASTERN WY.
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF ND INTO SD UNDER COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER WATER VAPOUR. RADAR RETURNS SPARSE GIVEN LACK
OF MOISTURE, BUT A FEW -SHSN MAY OCCUR THROUGH 12Z.
TODAY, WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE CWA. BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS THIS MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, UPPER/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO SLIP INTO THE CWA. SYSTEM WON'T HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OR COLD AIR. EXPECT SHOWERY-TYPE
PRECIPITATION GIVEN LAPSE RATES/NATURE OF SYSTEM. MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAY AND MIX TRENDING TO SNOW AT NIGHT. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT TUE MAR 19 2019
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT TUE MAR 19 2019
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA. SEE CURRENT
FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY WORSEN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THIS
WEEK GIVEN FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HELGESON
AVIATION...13
HYDROLOGY...HELGESON
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