605
FXUS63 KUNR 131055
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
355 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD.
-VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO 20S AND
LOWS BELOW ZERO.
-RAPID WARM UP SUNDAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
IN PARTS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS
-WARM AND DRY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH ACTIVE WEATHER AND
FLUCTUATING TEMPS AFTER
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER ACTIVE AND MOISTURE-LADEN NORTHWEST FLOW.
AREA OF MODEST MID-LEVEL FGEN HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CWA,
SUPPORTING A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY. SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA ARE
COLD, RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD TO THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL SD WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2" EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
SD INTO NORTHEASTERN WY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS
THAN AN INCH. THE BULK OF THE LIFT/FGEN SHOULD MOVE FURTHER SOUTH
OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BY NOON. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
TERMS OF ACCUMULATION.
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD AND IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN SD. ANOTHER
FRIGID NIGHT IN STORE FOR WESTERN SD WHERE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR TO
BELOW ZERO EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. WIND CHILLS IN THESE AREAS WILL DROP TO THE NEGATIVE
TEENS TO 20 BELOW IN SOME SPOTS.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND DRAMATICALLY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WESTERN US AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
SUPPORTS STRONG WAA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO
REACH 15 TO 20C WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE BH, NORTHEASTERN WY, AND SOUTHWESTERN SD. EXISTING
SNOWPACK MAY TEMPER HIGHS SOMEWHAT BUT EXPECT A MUCH WARMER DAY
FOR SUNDAY. WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN US
RIDGE. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE FLATTENING OUT BY THE MID WEEK, BRINGING THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM AND SEMI-
WESTERLY FLOW. THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED
AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FLOW IMPACT THE
REGION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 17-19Z. TRANSIENT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR IN THE MODERATE SNOW BANDS, MAINLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SD.
AFTER 18Z, SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 21-23Z.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ001-
002-013-014-032-078.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...WONG
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