122
FXUS63 KUNR 070510
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1010 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA: LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES
TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS (< 2 INCHES) NEAR THE NEBRASKA
BORDER.
- BREEZY WEST WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 MPH) THIS WEEKEND.
- WARM (ABOVE AVERAGE) TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 931 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
RADAR SHOWS LINGERING RETURNS ARE NOW JUST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THAT, WITH PRECIP COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
BOTH DAYS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
ON SATURDAY, AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON SUNDAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL
DROP RH'S DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS FOR SOME AREAS EACH
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN INCREASED FIRE DANGER. THE BETTER MIXING
WINDS LOOK TO BE SUNDAY, BUT MODELS KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
SLIGHTLY SUB-ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FIRST, THERE IS A NORTHERN TIER TROUGH POSITIONED
OVER EASTERN MONTANA, WHICH IS CLIPPING NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
SECONDLY, A CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN UTAH AND
WESTERN COLORADO, RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THERE IS A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE LOW IN ALBERTA. LATEST RADAR (AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS) INDICATE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, BUT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
REPORTED SO FAR HAVE BEEN UP TO AN INCH, MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES
AND IN HEAVIER BANDS, DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES ON PAVEMENT.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE, MAINLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM FAITH TO THE BLACK HILLS. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL FALL OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OGLALA LAKOTA COUNTY, SOUTHERN JACKSON AND
BENNETT COUNTIES WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE SNOWFALL, CAUSING
LOCALIZED AREAS OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITY. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MEADE, PENNINGTON COUNTY
PLAINS, CUSTER COUNTY PLAINS AND NORTHERN OGLALA LAKOTA COUNTY,
WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 20-30MPH AND GUST OF 40-50MPH WILL BE COMMON.
THIS AREA IS INCLUDED IN A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT, LIGHT SNOW WILL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST, MAINLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM PHILIP SD TO PINE RIDGE SD. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
AND CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S, WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS OCCURRING IN AREAS WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND.
THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE AREA CAUSING THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW
TO BE PUSHED INTO THE BAJA, RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS, WITH SOME 40S IN THE HILLS AND LOW 60S ALONG THE
EASTERN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, THOUGH THE HIGHER HILLS
WILL BE COLDER. WITH THE TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW, GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING, NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS OF 22-29MPH AND GUSTS OF 45-50MPH WILL
BE COMMON, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, WITH
SEVERAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. BY MID-WEEK THE FLOW IS MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS
WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING, NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WESTERLY WINDS OF 22-29MPH AND GUSTS OF 35-45MPH WILL BE
COMMON, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE LOCATIONS WHERE THE
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL COINCIDE WILL BE
THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HIGHEST QPF AND SNOWFALL TODAY.
THEREFORE NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE POSTED AT THIS TIME.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...DYE
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...MLS
AVIATION...DYE
FIRE WEATHER...MLS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page