248
FXUS63 KUNR 091126
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
-ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
-WILDFIRE SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INDEFINITELY, WITH THICKER
SMOKE AT TIMES
-DRY MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SOUTH CENTRAL SD TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SD SUNDAY EVENING
-BECOMING UNSETTLED AND COOLER NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WEAK IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TS CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD TONIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF SEVERE STORM IF ENOUGH FORCING IS REALIZED. DRY
SUNDAY MOST PLACES. KEPT POPS OUT OF THE BH IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
VERY DRY PROFILES. HOWEVER, A STRONGER UPDRAFT COULD SUPPORT A
BRIEF SHOWER IN THE NORTHERN BH IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE
NEXT IMPUSLE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TS CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL SD SUN EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH EACH IMPULSE. SHEAR WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS FASTER FLOW SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE FA, SUPPORTING AN
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER CLEAR SKY DAY WITH HAZY CONDITIONS. LATEST AIR
QUALITY INDEX IS AT THE MODERATE LEVEL WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS IN
THE UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS. LOOKING AHEAD, A PASSING COOL
FRONT WILL GIVE SOME LOW-END SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN SD PLAINS THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES,
LIGHTNING, AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
AFTERWARDS, SKIES WILL BE QUIET AS TEMPS COOL TO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
SUNDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY TO SEE PLAY OUT. MACHINE
LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY MODELS HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY FOR MULTIPLE DAYS
NOW. BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HESITANT TO ALLOW CONVECTION
TO HAPPEN. MOSTLY LIKELY FOR SEVERAL REASONS, LIKE HOW DRY IT IS
AND HOW WARM THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE. BUT EITHER WAY, THE CONSENSUS
IS, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO GET GOING, THEY COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL OVER MOST OF THE SD
COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL SD COUNTIES. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO INITIATE, THINKING IS THAT THEY WOULD BEGIN NEAR AND IN
THE BLACK HILLS BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE SD PLAINS. MAIN
CONCERNS WOULD BE WIND AND LIGHTNING.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE ON THE SUNNIER SIDE WITH LINGERING HAZE
TOMORROW. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST,
A LITTLE COOLER FOR SOME IN THE BLACK HILLS AND IN NORTHERN SD.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THE DAILY CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA.
UNSETTLED PATTERN UNDER ZONAL FLOW WILL GIVE THE AREA COOLER
TEMPS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING, HOWEVER, VISIBILITY
IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 930 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY, WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY
DUE TO BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AND LOW RH. A SMALL, QUICK MOVING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
IN AND NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. THOSE STORMS WOULD THEN DRIFT EAST.
CONCERNS FOR THESE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE STRONG, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
WYZ315-317.
UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...WONG
FIRE WEATHER...JC
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