918
FXUS63 KUNR 181726
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1026 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG, GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH SOME SNOW AND LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW
- FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF CLIPPERS BRING GUSTY WINDS, FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES,
AND SOME SNOW AT TIMES
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN ND WITH WARM FRONT
INTO WESTERN KS, COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN WY, AND SECONDARY COLD
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AB/SK. ~50KT WIND GUSTS COMMON OVER
NORTHWEST SD PER FRONTS AND SQUEEZE ZONE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DEPICTS 40-60KT IN THE LOWEST
2KM OVER NORTHWEST SD, WHICH MATCHES LATEST KUDX VWP. WATER VAPOUR
LOOP HAD FIRST SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE OVER AB/SK. BEST LIFT EAST OF CWA, WHICH IS AHEAD OF
WARM FRONT/FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND FIRST COLD
FRONT PER NIGHTTIME PHYSICS RGB. THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN.
TODAY, AB/SK SHORTWAVE RACES SOUTHEAST DRIVING SECONDARY COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST
ISALLOBARIC FORCING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA, BUT WILL STILL
HAVE 3-5MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES. RENEWED LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE SLACKENS THE
GRADIENT/0-2KM FORECAST WIND PROFILES BY AFTERNOON, SO PROBABLY
WON'T SEE AN UPTICK IN PEAK GUSTS, BUT JUST A CONTINUATION (NBM
50-80% CHANCE >50KT GUSTS OVER NORTHWEST SD). CURRENT WIND
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD. QG-FORCING/WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL DO IT'S BEST TRYING TO TAP INTO LIMITED
MOISTURE, SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS PER FROUDE>1/0-2KM RH 80-90%. 1-3" POSSIBLE. ANY SNOW
THAT FALLS WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE LOCALIZED BLOWING
SNOW AT TIMES AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HIGH
WIND PRODUCTS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD BEHIND SECONDARY
COLD FRONT, SO MOST FOLKS WILL SEE HIGHS THIS MORNING.
DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN
WIND CHILLS FROM ZERO TO 20 BELOW ZERO.
NEXT WEEK, A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL RACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS UNDER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EACH WAVE WILL CREATE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG ANTECEDENT LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH GUSTY WINDS/LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. NEXT HEADLINEABLE
WIND EVENT MAY OCCUR TUESDAY. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO FOCUS WITH DECREASING TEMPERATURE SPREADS
AND AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THESE
TRENDS CONTINUE, CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO HIGH,
ESPECIALLY IF WE GET SOME SNOWCOVER, WHICH IS COMPLETELY IN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES WITH A >50% CHANCE OF >0.1" QPF.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY AS WELL AS PATCHY SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES WITH
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BLACK HILLS AND
NORTHEASTERN WY/NORTHWESTERN SD. WIND GUSTS FROM 40-60KTS WILL BE
COMMON ON THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER
19/01Z.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ001-002-
012-013-026-031-041-072-073-078.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST /5 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SDZ014-025-027-030-032-042>044-046-047-049-074>077.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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