710
FXUS63 KUNR 032320
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
420 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
- CHANCE FOR MUCH-NEEDED PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
CURRENT UPPER-AIR WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS DEPICTS SPLIT-FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER WY/NORTHERN CO
WITH A RIDGE BEHIND IT OVER THE PNW AND ID/MT. WV IMAGERY INDICATES
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN WY/NE PANHANDLE WITH RADAR
RETURNS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THOSE REGIONS. DRY AIR HAS MOVED
INTO THE FORECAST REGION FROM THE NORTH, PUSHING OUT THE CLOUD COVER
AND DROPPING RH VALUES INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE
BLACK HILLS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING
NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH,
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. SD GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR TODAY IS
HIGH ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND OUT INTO THE SD PLAINS. DUE TO THESE
CONDITIONS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FORECAST REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE SHORTWAVE SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST,
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE EASTWARD (POSITIONING IT OVER
WY/WESTERN SD) AND A TROUGH TO TO POSITION ITSELF OVER WESTERN
CANADA/PNW/NORTHERN CA. RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST REGION WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH 70+ DEGREES ACROSS THE SD PLAINS EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS (~55-75 PERCENT CHANCE, VIA NBM-CONUS). RH VALUES
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE
SD PLAINS AND BREEZY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS, GUSTS FROM 20-30 MPH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SD PLAINS
(EASTERN RAPID CITY DOWN THROUGH WESTERN FALL RIVER COUNTY). SD
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH FOR MOST OF WESTERN SD, WITH VERY
HIGH CONDITIONS FOR THE CUSTER COUNTY PLAINS AND NORTHERN HALF OF
OGLALA LAKOTA COUNTY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT NEAR-CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND
WESTERN SD TOMORROW. A RFW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, HOWEVER,
CURRENT MODEL RUNS DO NOT HAVE WINDS MEETING CRITERIA. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE REVISITED WHEN THE NEW MODEL RUNS ARE AVAILABLE.
THE TROUGH DEEPEN OVER WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH A
FEW DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE ROCKIES. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE
LEANING TOWARDS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A CO SURFACE-LOW THAT
SHOTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, BRINING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, MIXED
PRECIPITATION, AND SNOW TO THE FORECAST REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH WHAT
HAS BEEN SHOWN OVER THE LAST 24-48 HOURS, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
AMPLE TIME FOR THE LOW TO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH, LOWERING THE QPF/SNOW
TOTALS OR MISSING THE REGION ALTOGETHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN WARM AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN, WHILE
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL DIP INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS WEEKEND WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 419 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS
THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS, WITH UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR THE BLACK
HILLS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DIP TO 15-25 PERCENT ON
THE PLAINS AND 20-30 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS. BREEZY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND LAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-30 MPH, ACROSS
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SD PLAINS. WINDS
WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR IN WHETHER A RED FLAG WARNING IS
ISSUED. CURRENT MODEL RUNS DO NOT MEET THE CRITERIA (SUSTAINED
WINDS OR GUSTS OF 25MPH+ FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME). WHILE A
RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, CONDITIONS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY, ESPECIALLY WIND GUSTS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...DYE
FIRE WEATHER...SCHULTZ
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