542
FXUS63 KUNR 162010
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
110 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS TOMORROW
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD. CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY, THE
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS, AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.
- STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND
SOUTHWESTERN SD LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH)
EXPECTED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS.
- STORM MOVING THROUGH LATE WED/THU WILL BRING NEXT CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS TROF AXIS JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHEASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD. SFC STATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE
REPORTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.
LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW WITH SFC
CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER MT AND THE DAKOTAS. TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD SHOW 50-60KT
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THESE GUSTS TO MIX TO THE SFC. CONFIDENCE IN THESE GUSTS ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD WHERE THE NBM PROBS SHOW A 50-70%
CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 60 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ELSEWHERE
AND DUE TO THIS, WILL HOLD OFF ON UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH.
HOWEVER, WITH THE EXPECTED WARM TEMPS, LOW RHS, AND STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
UPGRADE FIRE WX WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING. (SEE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION)
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, AT THE SFC A LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CO
AND MOVES INTO NE. SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE CWA WITH TEMPS
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. IN TERMS OF QPF, THERE'S STILL A WIDE RANGE
OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS LACKING.
MINOR CHANGES IN THE LOW'S TRACK COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP (AND THUS, HOW MUCH SNOW) WE GET FROM THIS
EVENT. LREF ENSEMBLE AND NBM GUIDANCE BOTH HAVE 25-75TH PERCENTILE
SPREADS OF UP TO 0.1 TO 0.25" QPF OVER NORTHEASTERN WY INTO
WESTERN SD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS MAY
DEVELOP AROUND 10Z PRODUCING 60KT WINDS AT 2 TO 3 KM, MAINLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN WY UP THROUGH NORTHWESTERN SD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS RHS
DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE
TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.
WIDESPREAD NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD WHERE
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS IN
SOUTHWESTERN SD GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL WARM TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING
TO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S. WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER, THE
STRONG WINDS, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW HUMIDITIES, HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AND THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS. THEREFORE, HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A
RED FLAG WARNING.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH,
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE LOW, THOUGH SOME SPOTS IN THE
BLACK HILLS COULD SEE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH).
COOLER WEATHER WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ TO 6 PM MST /7 PM
CST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ320>322-324>326-329-331>335.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SDZ027-029-041-075-076.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ315-317.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WYZ055-058-059.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
FIRE WEATHER...WONG
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