780
FXUS63 KUNR 232002
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
102 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
CURRENT UPPER AIR WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS DEPICTS LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING OVER WESTERN CONUS, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES, AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN
QUEBEC DOWN TO FL WITH A NOR'EASTER OFF THE COAST OF MA. WV SHOWS
HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE REGION, WITH DRIER AIR CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG
THE RIDGE, EXTENDING FROM THE PNW INTO WESTERN ND, WITH WEAKER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MO REGION. WITH THE SHIFT OF
THE RIDGE FURTHER EAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE AND ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS
RECEDED BACK INTO CANADA, ALLOWING WARMER, ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOW TEMPS
IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH A FEW 20S STILL
LINGERING. WINDS ARE STRONGEST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SD WITH
SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION IS
MAINLY EXPERIENCING 10-20 MPH GUSTS.
FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE JET STREAK WILL PROGRESS ALONG THE
RIDGE, SETTING UP A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
ALBERTA DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP THE
REGION, BRINING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR CWA.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A RESULT, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS STAYING IN SE WY. WESTERN SD WILL SEE BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORNING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NE
WY AND PARTS OF WESTERN SD, HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
WILL BE LOW (<25 PERCENT CHANCE OF >0.01, NBM-CONUS).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP, WITH CHANCES FOR BOTH RAIN AND SNOW, AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND DURING THE NIGHT
OVER THE PLAINS, WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE THE EXACT AMOUNTS AND
LOCATIONS OF SNOWFALL/RAINFALL ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, THE OVERALL
SYSTEM MAY BRING >0.1 INCH OF QPF TO NE WY AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
BLACK HILLS (~45 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE), WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
WILL LIKELY SEE BETWEEN A TRACE AND 0.05 INCHES (~65 TO 35 PERCENT,
RESPECTIVELY, NBM-CONUS).
MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL QUICKLY RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO FINISH OFF THE WEEK. COLD, BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST WY TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS OF UP TO 25KT.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...WONG
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