180
FXUS63 KUNR 171710
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS EVENING'S UPDATE.
MASSAGED NBM-LED WIND GUSTS DOWN IN OUR FORECAST GRIDS OVERNIGHT
TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, AS THEY WERE TOO HIGH.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE STILL ON FOR
TOMORROW (SATURDAY) UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS!
ENJOY THE GENERALLY PLEASANT AND LOW-IMPACT WEEKEND AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MILD AND DRY AFTERNOON ON TAP AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THE
WESTERN US. DRIER WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S TOMORROW, ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD
WHERE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
CLOSED UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CA BY SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM TRANSFORMS TO AN OPEN WAVE AS TREKS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE ROCKIES. IT SHOULD PASS TO OUR
SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY
MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARRIVE LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROF
DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US, THOUGH IT'S STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
DETERMINE ANY SPECIFICS ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES OR TIMING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...KSMITH
DISCUSSION...WONG
AVIATION...HELGESON
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