319
FXUS63 KUNR 290448
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
948 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM BLOWING AND ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN SD INTO NORTHEASTERN
WY
- COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE
- THERE'S A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
INITIAL BAND OF SNOW HAS LARGELY MOVED OUT OF THE CWA WITH A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWESTERN SD. SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS
STATIONARY FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WESTERN SD WITH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD
INTO NORTHEASTERN WY. A SFC LOW HAS ALSO BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN CENTRAL/EASTERN CO.
THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE MOST PART
ASIDE FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING, AS THE SFC
LOW IN CO DEVELOPS AND MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND MORE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SNOW SHOULD START IN
NORTHEASTERN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN SD
THIS EVENING. IN TERMS OF TOTALS, CURRENT GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-4" ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS AND
NORTHEASTERN WY AND 4-6" ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WY BLACK HILLS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT THANKS TO TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF UP TO
45 MPH COULD CAUSE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY
INTO WESTERN SD WHICH COULD POSE MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. HAVE MADE
NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
TOMORROW AS COLDER AIR MASS MOVES IN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO NEAR ZERO. SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWESTERN SD SUNDAY
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
TO 40S BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE STILL IN
POOR CONSENSUS AS TO IF WE'LL EVEN GET PRECIP WITH THIS MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE PAINTS 0-20% PROBS FOR QPF 0.1+" FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SOME HIGHER PROBS (40-60%) IN THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 948 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE BLACK
HILLS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE SAT MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS DECREASE AND SNOW ENDS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY FOR
SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR WYZ057-060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY FOR WYZ054>056-
058-059.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...13
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