231
FXUS63 KUNR 051133
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE PAC NW COAST. STRONG RIDING
IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE LOW IS SITTING ACROSS WYOMING INTO
NEBRASKA AND EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN SD. AN UPPER WAVE IS
PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN MONTANA. SEVERAL SEVERE
STORMS ARE CROSSING SOUTHEAST MONTANA AT THIS TIME. CAMS ARE
UNDECIDED WITH WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. LATEST KUDX IMAGE SHOWS SOME STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST SD. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THESE STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, AS THEY PUSH INTO
CENTRAL SD. GOOD INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREATS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN PWATS WILL BE AT ~175% OF
NORMAL. CONVECTIVE INITIATION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING...AND THEN AROUND THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. STORMS
WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. ANOTHER
WAVE THIS EVENING WILL CROSS EASTERN MONTANA AGAIN, BRINGING MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT AREA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THESE STORMS WILL CLIP NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SIMILAR STORY TOMORROW
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AS A WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. A SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR STORMS, BUT SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LACKING MORE.
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER IS AT THIS TIME EXPECTED HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BROUGHT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EXTREME
NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING, THEN LIFT TO MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...15
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