792
FXUS63 KUNR 200451
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1051 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS THROUGH
SATURDAY
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY
-COOLER TO START NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
-MILD AND DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE A DECENT
COOL DOWN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 957 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHILE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING, HUMIDITY HAS BEEN SLOW
TO RECOVER - PORTIONS OF NE WY AND THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS AND
FOOTHILLS REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 25 PERCENT.
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE: VERY WARM (70S TO MID 80S), DRY (MINIMUM RH
BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 TO 18 PERCENT), BREEZY (WEST WINDS
GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH), AND ANTECEDENT DROUGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IN CRITICAL WINDS IS LOWER FROM PINE RIDGE THROUGH MARTIN, MIXING
HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 10K FEET WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING OF HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT WITH TRANSIENT CRITICAL WIND GUSTS.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. EXTREMELY
WARM SATURDAY WITH 90S LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN, MAINLY FOR NW SD AND THE BLACK
HILLS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY; PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK MEAGER
(<0.1"). MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURN LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UNSEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER IN MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE
TOPPING IMPULSE DOES COOL THINGS DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HOWEVER
THINGS DRY BACK OUT AND WARM UP MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS.
WARM AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW IS ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT A SHIFT TO NNW
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, NO CAA ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SAT WITH THE WARMEST DAY FOR MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE SAT,
AS LONG AS THE COLD FRONT DOES NOT SPEED UP. IF THINGS REMAIN ON
TRACK, RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SET THE NEXT TWO DAYS AT
MANY LOCATIONS INCLUDING RAPID CITY WHERE THE ALL TIME MARCH HIGH
(84) COULD BE BROKEN AS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 90S.
RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESP ACROSS NW SD, BUT PRECIP CHANCES
DON'T LOOK GREAT ATTM. UPPER RIDGE THEN REBUILDS MID NEXT WEEK
WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURNING BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
OCCURS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK PER A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IN
WESTERLY FLOW.
FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 PLEASE VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/WRH/TEXTPRODUCT?PRODUCT=PMDEPD
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AS LOW AS 10%, AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LINGERING SNOW COVER ON THE
NORTH AND EASTERN SLOPES MAY MITIGATE FIRE RISK IN SOME SPOTS IN
THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND WYOMING BLACK HILLS.
VERY WARM, DRY, AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH DAY. SLIGHTLY
LOWER WINDS FRIDAY MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR MOST PLACES, EXCEPT
FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS, BUT WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY. FINALLY,
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON, BRINGING BREEZY
WINDS INTO THE NIGHT PERIOD AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THE COMBINATIONS OF LOW RH,
FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND BREEZY WINDS MAY SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDS SAT
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MID
NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER MUCH COLDER WEATHER LOOKS TO ARRIVE TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR SDZ319>327-
329-331>333.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR WYZ314>318.
UPDATE...SE
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...JC
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