822  
FXUS63 KUNR 191741  
AFDUNR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD  
1141 AM MDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD RIDGE OVER WESTERN MT INTO EASTERN WY.  
WEAK TROUGH SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF ND INTO SD UNDER COMPACT  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER WATER VAPOUR. RADAR RETURNS SPARSE GIVEN LACK  
OF MOISTURE, BUT A FEW -SHSN MAY OCCUR THROUGH 12Z.  
 
TODAY, WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY  
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE CWA. BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS THIS MORNING  
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  
 
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, UPPER/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO SLIP INTO THE CWA. SYSTEM WON'T HAVE A LOT OF  
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OR COLD AIR. EXPECT SHOWERY-TYPE  
PRECIPITATION GIVEN LAPSE RATES/NATURE OF SYSTEM. MAINLY RAIN  
DURING THE DAY AND MIX TRENDING TO SNOW AT NIGHT. SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR  
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA. SEE CURRENT  
FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO  
CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY WORSEN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THIS  
WEEK GIVEN FORECAST TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...HELGESON  
AVIATION...13  
HYDROLOGY...HELGESON  
 
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