006
FXUS63 KUNR 111741
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1141 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-WARM AND BREEZY THIS WEEK WITH CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES
-COOLER LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THIS WEEK,
SUPPORTING WARM AND DRY WEATHER. RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSES WILL
SUPPORT WEAK COOL FRONTS AT TIMES, WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP WITH
EACH SYSTEM. UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES, WITH AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING COOL
FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 80S AND LOW
90S UNDER BREEZY SSW FLOW. COOL FRONT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY NW WINDS
FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A VERY SMALL CHANCE
FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD WHERE DEEPLY MIXED PROFILES WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER, GIVEN SUCH LOW PROBS, LEFT THINGS DRY
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. DID ADD SOME LOW POPS FOR JET STREAK INDUCED
HIGH BASED SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HIGH CENTERED MOISTURE, WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY, AND ENTRANCE
REGION JET STREAK FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW VERY
HIGH BASED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA.
COOLER TUES WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THINGS WARM BACK UP WED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE WITH 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. EXPECT BREEZY
SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THUR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED. THUR'S HIGH TEMPS WILL HINGE ON
FRONTAL TIMING, WITH A FASTER FROPA LEADING TOWARD COOLER TEMPS,
ESP IN THE WEST. THERE COULD ALSO BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WED NIGHT INTO THUR WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NW,
HOWEVER THOSE CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW ATTM. YET ANOTHER IMPULSE
EXPECTED FRI-SAT WITH A NEAR REPEAT OF WED-THUR. HOWEVER, A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, LEADING TO MUCH
COOLER TEMPS BY SUNDAY AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY BETTER (ALBEIT STILL
LOW) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CURRENT SOUTH TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING FOR THE WIND
SHIFT IS BETWEEN 1 PM AND 8 PM DEPENDING ON LOCATION. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT BASED OFF
CAMS CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER DEVELOPING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
WARM, DRY AND, BREEZY CONDS WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN SD. COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF BREEZY NW WINDS WITH RISING RH. COOLER TUES WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. RH'S WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER
TUES, SUPPORTING ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDS FOR
MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS. THINGS WILL WARM BACK UP AND DRY
OUT WED, WITH GUSTY SE WINDS DEVELOPING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDS WHERE SUFFICIENT
GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED WITH ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
LIKELY. WITH THE DRY AND BREEZY PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY, CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD FOR AREAS LACKING NORMAL MAY GREEN UP. A
STRONG COOL FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER RH AND SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS EARLY NEXT, WITH A PAUSE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ322>335.
WY...
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...DYE
FIRE WEATHER...JC
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