077
FXUS63 KUNR 282356
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
556 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TOMORROW.
- GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
THE FORECAST IS STILL HOLDING ON TO A QUIETER ONE. THAT BEING
SAID, THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS BUT NOTHING FAR OUTSIDE OF NORMAL
FOR THE AREA.
AN OVERALL NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP SOME LOW-
END POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THEN A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD GIVE CLEAR AND SUNNY
SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW-END POPS RETURN TO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND NORTHWEST FLOW
RETURNS. THOSE PRECIP CHANCES WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY.
FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW, THUNDERSTORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. AS OF THIS WRITING, AROUND NOON TUESDAY,
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE CLEARER SKIES AND
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INTRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY SO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR NE WY TO NW SD AND
TRACK SOUTHEAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT
ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
THE SHOWERS AND STORM POTENTIAL RETURN TOMORROW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL SWING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHORTWAVE WOULD
BRING SOME LIFT AND IS PROJECTED TO GET SOME SHOWERS GOING FOR
THOSE MAINLY AROUND THE BLACK HILLS AND IN NW SD, ALTHOUGH PARTS
OF CENTRAL SD CAN'T BE RULED OUT. AND WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FORECASTED, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE THIS WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE STUCK IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE LOOKING WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER
STILL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
THE EFI TABLES ARE NOT HIGHLIGHTING HIGHLY ELEVATED WINDS THIS
WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE SOME
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY. WINDS WILL
SWING TO THE NORTHWEST AND PICK UP SPEEDS TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH,
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH. WIND SPEEDS LIKE THIS AREN'T BAD FOR WHAT
WE ARE USED TO BUT IT'S A CHANGE FROM TODAY. NOTHING EXTREME, JUST
DIFFERENT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FA, MAINLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. TEMPO GROUP
FOR -SHRA OVER KRAP FROM 00-04Z. THUNDER COULD BE POSSIBLE,
HOWEVER LOWER CHANCE SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...GS
AVIATION...DYE
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