693
FXUS63 KUNR 241857
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1257 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
UPPER FLOW IS TRANSITIONING THIS AFTERNOON FROM WNW TO NEAR ZONAL.
VIS SAT SHOWS HIGH BASED CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NE WY THROUGH THE
BLACK HILLS. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OVERNIGHT ADVECTION WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA ON MEMORIAL
DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. AGAIN, CAN'T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE HILLS, BUT
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP,
STATIONARY UPPER LOW ACROSS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK.
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING PWATS RANGING FROM 125-175% OF NORMAL. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...IT'S JUST A MATTER OF WHERE THE BEST
FORCING SETS UP. THE ECM CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE
GFS TARGETS WY, THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHIFT EASTWARD LATER IN
THE WEEK CLOSER TO THE ECM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MINOR
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, APPARENT WITH
BUBBLING CUMULUS BEGINNING TO FORM OFF THE BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THESE LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
TAF SITE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...SCHWEIGERT
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