844
FXUS63 KUNR 301127
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
527 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
IR SAT SHOWS QUIET WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S/60S. NO CHANGES NEEDED WITH
THE FORECAST. MIN TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 70S APPROACHING 80F.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE JUST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER US. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER FAR EASTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SIT OVER THE AREA, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, GENERALLY FOR EASTERN SD,
HOWEVER COULD IMPACT SOUTH-CENTRAL SD. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HANGING AROUND. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, DROPPING TEMPERATURES FROM THE
MID-70S DOWN INTO THE 60S, AND BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE WAVES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...GS
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