478
FXUS63 KUNR 231714
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1014 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC AIR RESULTING IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THIS
MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS
MORNING, WITH PERSISTENT NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING ALONG THE ND/MT BORDER. CURRENT TEMPS
ARE RANGING FROM ZERO TO 25 BELOW. LEMMON SD IS THE COLDEST SPOT IN
THE CWA AT THIS TIME AT -26F. WINDS ACROSS NW SD ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 GUSTING 15 MPH. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS DOWN TO
45 BELOW...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TO AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING FOR HARDING, PERKINS, AND ZIEBACH COUNTIES. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, WINDS
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT WIND CHILLS, SO THE
19Z EXPIRATION STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. KUDX RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT
SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN SD INTO NE WY. THOUGH THE SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING FOR HOURS, LOCAL OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOW VERY LITTLE
ACCUMULATION, WELL UNDER AN INCH. SEE NO REASON FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AT ANY LOCATION. LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT, BUT MANY AREAS WILL
JUST SEE FLURRIES. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT, EVEN
WHILE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES FROM THE WEST. RIGHT NOW
DON'T SEE A NEED FOR WIND CHILL-RELATED HEADLINES SINCE APPARENT
TEMPS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S, BUT THEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING THE FRIGID AIR BACK IN FOR SUNDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. WE SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. HOWEVER, QPF
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW A BRIEF WARM UP FOR
MONDAY AS A POCKET OF WARMER AIR MOVES IN, RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE
30S TO 40S. COLDER AIR THEN PUSHES BACK IN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
REMAIN NEAR THE CWA, WHICH WILL MODERATE TEMPS SOME, BUT LEAVES A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
OVERNIGHT.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR SDZ001-002-014-078.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST /1 PM CST/ TODAY FOR SDZ012-
013-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>077.
WY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR WYZ060.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...SMITH
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