188
FXUS63 KUNR 040353
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
953 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 932 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF INTO
SAT MORNING. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SE UPSLOPE FLOW, AND
WEAK CAPPING WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/TS CHANCES OVER THE BH SAT
AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER CELLS. TS'S WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
SCENTRAL SD WHERE MUCH HIGHER CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH
THE TAIL END OF LSA FROM THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH TS
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON WHETHER CAPPING CAN BE
OVERCOME. HOT AND DRY SUNDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN. AS OF THE 11AM, THE RECENT STORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
WITH LINGERING LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS. ONE STORM CELL PRODUCED IMPRESSIVE GOLF BALL TO
PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL IN AND NEAR SPEARFISH.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CHANCES WILL LINGER, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE BLACK HILLS. STORM
INITIATION AND GROWTH WILL LIKELY HAPPEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER. LARGE HAIL, STRONG
WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS.
BEYOND THE BLACK HILLS, STORMS WILL TRACK EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
EASTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN MONTANA THAT WOULD TRACK INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG
WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND
FADE OUT.
THIS WEEKEND IS LOOKING LIKE A STORY WITH TWO VERY DIFFERENT
CHAPTERS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
FINALLY KICK OUT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
EASTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO
OUR SOUTH. ONCE THAT TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OUT, THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA FOR SUNDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE THE AREA STORM CHANCES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90F. IF
WE SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY, THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
PUTTING THE BETTER CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER, AROUND 10 TO 30%,
TO THE SOUTH IN NEBRASKA AND TO THE EAST CLOSER TO IOWA. A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN PLACED OVER THE BLACK
HILLS AND SOUTH.
SUNDAY IS LOOKING VERY DIFFERENT AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY AS AFTERNOON TEMPS
JUMP INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100F. CAN'T RULE OUT POP UP STORMS OVER
AND NEAR THE BLACK HILLS THOUGH.
A QUICK GLANCE AT NEXT WEEK, THE NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO 90S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE NIGHT UNTIL AROUND 12Z. STORM CHANCES RETURN
FOR THE BLACK HILLS STARTING AROUND 18Z AND LASTING THROUGH ~00Z.
TRANSIENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND ANY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CORES.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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