067  
FXUS63 KUNR 042343  
AFDUNR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD  
443 PM MST MON MAR 4 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
1216 PM MST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
-COMPACT SHORT WAVE MAY BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO THE  
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS TONIGHT  
 
-UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH ON/OFF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MID  
WEEK  
 
-DRY AND MILD LATE WEEK/WEEKEND  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER TROF COVERING THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS.  
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SD STILL BRINGING A  
BIT OF LIGHT SNOW, ALTHOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS EARLIER. NEXT UPSTREAM  
SHORT WAVE ENTERING FAR WESTERN WY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH STRETCHES  
FROM ND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH STATIONARY FRONT OVER OUR  
FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.  
 
NEXT COMPACT SHORT WAVES ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AND  
RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW  
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE  
SOUTHWEST, THEN SPREAD QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT,  
EXITING OUR EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE  
COMPACTNESS OF THE WAVE, ROBUST WARM ADVECTION, AND STEEP MID  
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, COULD SEE SOME HEFTY SNOWFALL RATES IN A FEW  
AREAS. THOSE SPECIFIC AREAS ARE HARD TO DETERMINE, BUT THEY WILL  
MOST LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE FROM AROUND/EAST OF PINE RIDGE AND  
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FAITH. DUE TO THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF  
THE SHORT WAVE, ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE SHORT IN  
DURATION FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION. STILL, A QUICK FEW INCHES ARE  
POSSIBLE. THE OTHER AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO WOULD  
BE IN THE BLACK HILLS.  
 
MUCH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AS THE SHORT  
WAVE EXITS TO OUR EAST, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE  
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX SOMEWHAT BY AFTERNOON WITH  
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.  
 
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY WILL CROSS THE REGION INTO  
THURSDAY, WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW/RAIN, WITH ANY  
APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY CONFINED TO HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL  
AVERAGES.  
 
UPPER TROF FINALLY PUSHES EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH WARMER  
AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 442 PM MST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CROSS THE AREA FROM  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AFTER  
00Z, BRINGING LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AND THE  
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. OUTSIDE OF SNOW  
SHOWERS, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
BREEZY WINDS/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY  
WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN  
WYOMING INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  
 

 
   
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JOHNSON  
AVIATION...DYE  
FIRE WEATHER...JOHNSON  
 
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