658
FXUS63 KUNR 271050
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
450 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN SD
- DRYING OUT FOR THE MID WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2025
08Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER TROF AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
ROCKIES. LEAD SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA WITH
LIGHT RAIN FALLING ACROSS WESTERN SD. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA. COLDER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AS A RESULT. THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CHANCES FOR A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. AS COLDER
AIR ARRIVES, RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS.
WITH THE RECENT WARM WEATHER AND THUS WARM GROUND TEMPS,
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF
SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WAVE
WILL SKIRT THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA
BUT A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WY
LATER THIS EVENING.
THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRANSITION TO
AN UPPER LOW AND DIG TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. AS IT DOES SO,
WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE MID-WEEK
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S. THE NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE/LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION LATE WED/THURS. CURRENT GUIDANCE ISN'T SHOWING MUCH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS MAINLY BEING BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS -SHRA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS WHERE GUSTS OF 25
TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...WONG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page