389
FXUS63 KUNR 020802
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
102 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-COOLER TODAY WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING ON THE SD PLAINS
-SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL SD TODAY
-SEASONALLY MILD AND DRY THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK MOST AREAS
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MILD WEATHER ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW SUPPORTS A FLUCTUATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN PUSH OF THIS FRONT HAS SUPPORT COOLER AIR INTO
MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS, WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTING
FOG ON PARTS OF THE SD PLAINS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION, SHIFTING WINDS. WEAK COMPACT IMPULSE WILL SKIRT JUST SOUTH
OF THE FA TODAY, WITH LIGHT MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLY GRAZING
SCENTRAL SD, PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN TODD AND TRIPP COUNTIES. ANY
PRECIP THAT MATERIALIZES WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET. HOWEVER, GIVEN A LOT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO ANY PRECIP, WITH THE BULK
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FA. NORTHEAST WY AND THE BH WILL SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPS TODAY AS THE FRONT HANGS UP OVER WESTERN SD, WHILE
MOST OF THE SD PLAINS WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER. WAA WILL COMMENCE
TONIGHT INTO SAT AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
FORCE THE COOL FRONT BACK INTO NW SD BY SAT AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL THERE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH STRONG WARMING EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION,
SUPPORTING THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 50S
AND 60S MANY AREAS SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN MONDAY. A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY, SUPPORTING SOME
LOW PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER, BUT STILL MILD TUES AND
WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD COOLER WEATHER FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW, BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT ATTM.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST THU JAN 1 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY, THE BLACK
HILLS, AND SOUTHWESTERN SD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR/IFR/LCL
LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS AND FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD NORTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH TONIGHT,
LIKELY REACHING THE KRAP TERMINAL BY AROUND 11Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
SDZ001-002-012>014-031-032-043-046-047-049-072-073-077-078.
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ060.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...WONG
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