251
FXUS63 KUNR 130450
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1050 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-WARM AND WINDY THIS WEEK WITH CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE WEEK
-COOLER LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
TONIGHT WILL SEE WINDS DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE-LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S
AND RH'S RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. WARM, DRY, GUSTY
CONDITIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH RHS DROPPING INTO THE MID- TO LOW-TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH VALUES,
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP SETTING UP ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. DUE TO THESE CONDITIONS, POOR RH RECOVERY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND GUSTY WINDS RETURNING THURSDAY, A
RFW IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9
PM MDT THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN SD, HOWEVER, LITTLE
TO NO MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THURSDAY WILL SEE
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS WEDNESDAY, THOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
WORK THEIR WAY INTO NORTHEASTERN WY AND NORTHWESTERN SD WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. FRIDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, WITH
COMPARABLE TEMPERATURES, RHS, AND GUSTY WINDS OVER NORTHWEST SD.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGER WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OVERLAP WITH THE
LOWEST RHS, SO A RFW IS CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RHS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THIS WEEK,
SUPPORTING WARM AND DRY WEATHER. RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSES WILL
SUPPORT WEAK COOL FRONTS AT TIMES, WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP WITH
EACH SYSTEM. BREEZY NW WINDS TODAY BEHIND THE GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW AND WILL SUPPORT A
DEEPENING LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW SE WINDS TO INCREASE
WED WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS NW SD AT TIMES.
ASSOCIATED FRONTSIDE IMPULSE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NE WY LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN
PLACE FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/TS. IF CONVECTION DOES
DEVELOP, GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE EXPECTED PER INVERTED-V PROFILES.
CONVECTION CHANCES WILL SHIFT NE OVERNIGHT. DID ADD SOME LOW POPS.
SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE FA WED NIGHT INTO THUR MORNING,
SUPPORTING GUSTY NW WINDS. BREEZY WINDS CAN EXPECTED THUR, ESP
OVER NW SD WHERE ADV LEVEL WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE. BREEZY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ADVECTS THROUGH
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEPER SOUTHERN CANADIAN
UPPER TROUGH. DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND, LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS BY SUNDAY AS WELL AS
SLIGHTLY BETTER (ALBEIT STILL LOW) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S MOST PLACES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE THINGS START TO WARM BACK UP TUES. MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT WE MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER IN THE
WEEK AS GULF MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A ROCKIES TROUGH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NE
WY AND THE WESTERN SD PLAINS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY, ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WARM, DRY AND, WINDY CONDS WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDS TO MOST OF WESTERN SD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF WESTERN SD WED THROUGH THUR, WITH A LONG DURATION OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BREEZY SE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WED AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. VERY DRY CONDS,
WITH RH'S EXPECTED TO FALL TO AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT BOTH WED AND
THUR AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY FRIDAY AS WELL). THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH WED EVENING AND SUPPORT GUSTY NW WINDS, WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THUR WITH
CONTINUED VERY DRY PROFILES. DRY AND BREEZY THROUGH SAT, WITH
POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF ANY FIRE HEADLINES IN SW SD. COOLER WITH
SHOWER CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A BREAK IN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
SDZ322>327-329>333.
WY...
UPDATE...SCHULTZ
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...JC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page