706
FXUS63 KUNR 252326
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
526 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FAVORED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- COOLER, UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
CURRENT UPPER-AIR WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN SK, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FLOW. AT 500MB, A JET STREAK OF 60KTS IS LOCATED OVER
THE CWA, SUPPORTING LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CWA (PER REGIONAL RADAR LOOP). WEBCAMS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS. WV IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. CURRENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ON
THE PLAINS AND 20S IN THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY OVER NORTHWESTERN SD, GUSTING TO 30 MPH,
WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION IS UNDER LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS.
CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN, RESULTING IN THE UPPER LOW
NOW SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING (COMPARED TO LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ON PREVIOUS RUNS). THIS SHIFT IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN THE MAIN ONSET OF RAIN/SNOW NOT OCCURRING UNTIL
LATER SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS SHIFT IN TIMING, PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST QPF
AMOUNTS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER EASTWARD (OVER EASTERN SD), HOWEVER,
THE 48 HR PROB FOR >0.5" THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SHOW A 65
TO 85% CHANCE (NBM-CONUS) FOR MUCH OF WESTERN SD. NORTHEAST WY IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY TO SEE THOSE AMOUNTS WITH ONLY A 20 TO 35%
CHANCE (NBM-CONUS). SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE BLACK HILLS, WHERE THERE IS A 45 TO 65% CHANCE (NBM-CONUS)
FOR >3" OF TOTAL SNOWFALL DURING THE PERIOD.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT, DRIER BUT STILL UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY
BRING ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AFTER MONDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER, KCUT IS REPORTING MVFR CIGS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SNOW/RAIN AND MVFR-IFR
CIGS SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. COULD ALSO SEE LOWER
VSBY DUE TO BR/FG WITHIN THE PRECIP. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...13
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