898  
FXUS63 KUNR 071728  
AFDUNR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD  
1128 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS  
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.  
 
- GUSTY (GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH) NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.  
 
- WARMING TREND MID WEEK WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE UPPER  
80S TO LOW 90S (5-10F ABOVE AVERAGE)  
 
- ACTIVE WEATHER AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE MID TO LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2025  
 
CURRENT WV AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK UPPER  
DISTURBANCE/WAVE OVER CENTRAL NE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING  
SKIES OVER WESTERN SD. ANOTHER WAVE SITS OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE  
ROCKIES WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AB/SK. THIS WAVE  
WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW  
GRAZES THE CWA. INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING SUPPLIED  
FROM A WEAKLY BAROCLINIC FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW  
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS  
MINIMAL WITH NAM DEPICTING SB CAPE OF 250-700 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE  
SHEAR OF AROUND 30KT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, INVERTED-V PROFILES  
INDICATE THAT ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS.  
 
3-HR PRESSURE RISES OF 2-4 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS  
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONGER NORTHWEST  
WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS CORE OF 35-45KT WINDS AT 850-700 MB  
MOVES OVER THE REGION. HREF GUIDANCE DEPICTS LOW (0-20%) PROBS FOR  
GUSTS TO EXCEED 45 MPH WHILE NBM GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE  
BULLISH WITH 70- 90% PROBS FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 45 MPH OVER  
NORTHWESTERN SD AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WIND GUSTS  
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD COULD REACH LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH  
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MAKE ANY  
DETERMINATION ON WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.  
 
UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD FACILITATE  
A WARMING TREND FOR THE EARLY TO MID WEEK AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL  
RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY THE MID WEEK, HIGHS ACROSS  
THE CWA COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WHICH WOULD BE  
5-10F ABOVE AVERAGE.  
 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN GOOD CONSENSUS OF ZONAL FLOW  
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION BY THE MID TO  
LATE WEEK. A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING  
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS - THOUGH MODELS DIVERGE ON  
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES AS THEY CROSS THE  
REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2025  
 
ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA  
AS A FRONT ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD BRING LOCALIZED  
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE  
ANTICIPATED ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS LIKELY  
18-00Z OVER MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN SD AND PORTIONS OF THE  
NORTHEASTERN WY PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, EXPECT VFR  
CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG  
AVIATION...DYE  
 
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