836
ACUS01 KWNS 020058
SWODY1
SPC AC 020056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2025
VALID 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
RISK. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF A SURFACE
LEE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY MODEST PER AREA
VWPS, SUFFICIENT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FOSTER AROUND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION. PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS WILL POSE MAINLY A LARGE HAIL
THREAT AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AN INCREASING RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND GRADUAL UPSCALE
GROWTH ANTICIPATED. REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538 FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THE SHORT-TERM SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. A
SEPARATE AREA OF MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS A BROADER PORTION OF SD IN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.
..MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING FROM PARTS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD PERSIST WHERE POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAIN. BUT, GENERALLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND A GRADUALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING.
..GLEASON.. 07/02/2025
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