466
ACUS01 KWNS 280539
SWODY1
SPC AC 280537
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLATIC AND CAROLINAS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO
THREAT ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. A FEW SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY, AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
BE IN PLACE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRST DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA. THESE STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE, MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, WHERE MLCAPE COULD PEAK AROUND 3000
J/KG. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS SUGGEST THAT
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE, SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION, 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS FORECAST
TO REACH NEAR 225 M2/S2 BY MID AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
BEING AMPLIFIED BY THE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS. SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED
MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS COULD EXTEND FURTHER WEST INTO THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND
FAR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, AS
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH TOPOGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AHEAD OF THE STORMS, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z HAVE MLCAPE IN
THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS. THIS,
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE-TEMPERATURE
DEWPOINT SPREADS NEAR 30 DEGREES F SHOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS.
..BROYLES/SQUITIERI.. 07/28/2026
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