496
ACUS01 KWNS 251634
SWODY1
SPC AC 251633
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS...WYOMING...AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. A MORE FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHERN KANSAS, WHERE A STRONG TORNADO MAY OCCUR.
..SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS
STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES AT MIDDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA, AUGMENTING A FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ORGANIZED/BOWING ON A SMALL SCALE THIS MORNING AND SOME DIURNAL
INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS IT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD, BUT THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF PROXIMAL RAIN-COOLED
AIR CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INTENSITY/PEAK RISK TIMING.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEPER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF THESE LINGERING EARLY DAY STORMS, WHERE OUTFLOW
MODIFIES/INTERCEPTS THE SURFACE FRONT, AND IN NORTH AND EAST
PROXIMITY TO A PANHANDLES SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONAL POST-FRONTAL
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW-RELATED POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE BEGINNING MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED, INITIAL
SUPERCELLS SHOULD POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND POTENTIALLY A TORNADO RISK. BUT, CONVECTIVE MODE WILL PROBABLY
TEND TO BECOME MIXED/MESSY QUICKLY, AS THUNDERSTORMS INTERACT/MERGE
WITH EACH OTHER. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO MARKEDLY INCREASE
NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. RESULTANT ELONGATED/CURVED HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN
REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE. AND GIVEN THE ENHANCED EFFECTIVE SRH
NEAR THE BOUNDARY, A STRONG TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE IF A SUPERCELL
MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED.
HIGHER-BASED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE A MORE DEEPLY MIXED
AIRMASS SUGGESTS A GREATER THREAT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE/DAMAGING
WINDS. BUT, SOME HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CORES. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO CLUSTER AND SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS, THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES, AND EVENTUALLY INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING, WHILE CONTINUING TO POSE MAINLY A
SEVERE WIND THREAT BEFORE EVENTUALLY WEAKENING.
..MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW YORK
50-60 KT MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RANGE IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COUPLED WITH POOR MID LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AND ONGOING CLOUDINESS, INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS BY
THIS AFTERNOON MAY TEND TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. EVEN SO, STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL AID IN
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION, WITH A MIX OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BOTH APPEAR POSSIBLE, AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS
PARTS OF OHIO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK
WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RELATED SHEAR SHOULD
EXIST. A SOMEWHAT HIGHER/MORE FOCUSED SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA FROM
MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..UTAH/WYOMING/MONTANA AND FAR EASTERN IDAHO
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. WITH A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THE MAIN
THREAT WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS
WITH OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS FROM UTAH INTO
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED A WIND-RELATED
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS
AS A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX INTERFACES WITH AN UNSTABLE/WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WYOMING. OTHERWISE, OCCASIONAL HAIL MAY ALSO
EXIST FARTHER NORTH IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO, WYOMING, AND PARTS OF
MONTANA, WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT, STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.
..GUYER/MOORE.. 06/25/2026
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