966
ACUS01 KWNS 071947
SWODY1
SPC AC 071946
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT TUE APR 07 2026
VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS, AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.
..20Z UPDATE
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO TRIM THUNDER PROBABILITIES OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT OVER THE KEYS TONIGHT. WHILE A BRIEF STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FL, WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL BEFORE
CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE OUTLOOK
REMAINS UNCHANGED, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
..LYONS.. 04/07/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1120 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2026/
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. STRONG
MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND A
DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN MT AND VICINITY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED, WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY MORE THAN WEAK
MLCAPE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING FLASHES AND STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS MAY OCCUR. GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR MOISTURE AND RELATED
INSTABILITY TO REMAIN QUITE MEAGER, HAVE NOT INCLUDED LOW SEVERE
WIND PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH THIS UPDATE.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONT. PRIOR
CONVECTION AND ONGOING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA WILL PROBABLY HINDER MORE ROBUST DIURNAL HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL, LOCALLY GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CORES THAT CAN DEVELOP, BEFORE CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY FOCUSES OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE
REGIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
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