364
ACUS01 KWNS 231647
SWODY1
SPC AC 231645
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND UPPER MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2+ INCH DIAMETER HAIL, 75+
MPH GUSTS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, AS WELL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
COMPLEX SCENARIO EXIST WITH MULTIPLE ITERATIONS OF CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS ONGOING REGIONALLY AT MIDDAY, INCLUDING A RELATIVELY MORE
INTENSE/FOCUSED CLUSTER NEAR THE SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE BORDER VICINITY. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY, AND POTENTIALLY GROW UPSCALE
WITH CONTINUED WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL, BUT DETAILS ARE COMPLICATED BY
PREVALENT OUTFLOW/CLOUD DEBRIS ETC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT ON THE WEST-NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THESE EARLY
DAY STORMS/RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS AND NEAR THE FRONT/EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW, WHICH COULD BRING ABOUT A RENEWED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER, RECENT HRRR RUNS
(14Z/15Z) HAVE NOTABLY TRENDED MUCH MORE LIMITED WITH THIS
LATE-DAY/EVENING REDEVELOPMENT SCENARIO.
FARTHER WEST/NORTH, WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SMALL-SCALE
MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD ENCOURAGE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND MORE
SO, INTO EARLY/MID EVENING. A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, A TORNADO MAY STILL
OCCUR WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL.
..SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WITHIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/CANADA, AN
EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL REMAIN
POOR, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. A GENERALLY LINEAR/CLUSTER MODE IS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE FRONTAL FORCING, WITH MODESTLY ENHANCED AND
INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RELATED SHEAR SUPPORTING
THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR.
..NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. A BELT OF ENHANCED (40-50 KT) WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
IN THE PROCESS OF OCCLUDING IS LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA.
GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO POSE A SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IN IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CAPE/SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
..COASTAL SOUTHEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS/WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FOR AREAS INCLUDING FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA.
..GUYER/MOORE.. 06/23/2026
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