054
ACUS01 KWNS 290515
SWODY1
SPC AC 290513
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OFTHE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA....
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AT MID-LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE, HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL AID
CONVECTIVE INITIATION, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 00Z HAVE MLCAPE
IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR 9 C/KM WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING
40 DEGREES F. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH HIGH-BASED STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE GUSTS SHOULD BE GREATEST IN THE EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
IF A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HAIL
MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES.
..SOUTHEAST
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY, AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON, WITH MLCAPE LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 3000 TO 4500 J/KG
RANGE. THIS, COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM, WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
GUSTS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY, WHICH IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA.
..BROYLES/SQUITIERI.. 07/29/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page