082
ACUS01 KWNS 050101
SWODY1
SPC AC 050059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SAT APR 04 2026
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
A COUPLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING, AND AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF HAIL/WIND MAY
ACCOMPANY ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
..SYNOPSIS
A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGHING PREVALENT OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND POINTS EAST. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO SOUTHERN TX, PRECEDED BY
ENOUGH BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT MAINLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND FAR SOUTHERN TX.
..PA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, SCANT BUOYANCY (E.G. A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG MLCAPE) REMAINS IN PLACE PER REGIONAL 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS.
MOST OF THE CAPE IS CONSTRAINED IN THE 850-600 MB LAYER, WHICH MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG LOW TOPPED CELLS WITHIN BANDS OF CONVECTION,
AIDED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDINGS. 0-3 KM
SRH REMAINS IN THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE. AS SUCH, WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE AT BEST GIVEN POOR BUOYANCY, THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGING GUST
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
..DEEP-SOUTH TEXAS
MULTICELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT,
WHERE AMPLE BUOYANCY REMAINS IN PLACE. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
POOR, 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE, DRIVEN BY 70 F DEWPOINTS BENEATH 7+ C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (PER THE 00Z BRO OBSERVED SOUNDING), INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SPARSE SEVERE HAIL/GUST INSTANCE BEFORE STORMS
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..SQUITIERI.. 04/05/2026
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