530
ACUS01 KWNS 151251
SWODY1
SPC AC 151249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS WELL AS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND LIFT BOTH FROM OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND A WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHERE A MODERATELY
BUOYANT AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. AROUND 30 TO 35 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION AS WELL, WHICH IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIXED MODE WITH SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL LINE
SEGMENTS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS, WHILE
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOTH SUPERCELLS AND LINE
SEGMENTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING AS THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.
..CENTRAL OH VALLEY
AN EXPANSIVE, SLOW-MOVING MCS, CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IL THIS
MORNING. THIS MCS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED OVERNIGHT BY A SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO WANE THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING, WITH A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE MCS. EVEN SO, THE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD,
LIKELY SUPPORTING RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DIURNALLY
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR, BUT DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S WILL STILL SUPPORT MODERATE BUOYANCY, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT OVERLY INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING. THIS
CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM FAR SOUTHEAST IN INTO SOUTHERN OH
AND NORTHERN KY. STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING GUSTS.
..CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GA
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS, CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S, IS IN PLACE FROM THE GA AND CAROLINAS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. STRONG HEATING IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE THIS AIRMASS
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A LARGE RESERVOIR OF MODERATE
BUOYANCY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THIS
DESTABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS ANY AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, AND LIMITED
STORM ORGANIZATION IS ANTICIPATED. EVEN SO, THE MODERATE BUOYANCY
COULD STILL SUPPORT UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS.
..CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT, INITIATED BY BOTH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WARM-AIR
ADVECTION. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL BE IN
PLACE, BUT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT A PREDOMINANTLY ELEVATED AND
CLUSTERED STORM MODE SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..MOSIER/DEAN.. 08/15/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page