662  
ACUS01 KWNS 191627  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 191626  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1026 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019  
 
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE  
EVENING FROM MS ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA/FL...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE  
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A MARGINAL SEVERE-STORM THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED  
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  
   
..MS/AL/GA/FL THROUGH TONIGHT
 
 
A BROKEN QLCS WITH SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUES TO  
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM MS/SOUTHEASTERN LA INTO AL. THE LOW LEVELS  
HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING IN ADVANCE OF THE  
CONVECTION AS LOW 60S BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS ADVECT NORTHWARD AND  
A FEW SMALL CLOUD BREAKS OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AL. DEEP-LAYER AND  
LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR ARE LIKEWISE STRENGTHENING FROM  
WEST-TO-EAST AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND  
A SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS EASTWARD FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE TN  
VALLEY. THOUGH BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR,  
MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2 WILL  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING,  
AS WELL AS DAMAGING GUSTS.  
 
THE SEVERE-STORM THREAT SHOULD WANE GRADUALLY TONIGHT ACROSS  
GA/NORTH FL AS A RESULT OF MARGINAL BUOYANCY AND SOMEWHAT STABLE  
NEAR-SURFACE LAPSE RATES, DESPITE CONTINUED STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  
   
..EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
 
 
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER, THERE WILL BE SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW 60S BOUNDARY-LAYER  
DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD INLAND OVER EXTREME EASTERN NC, GIVEN A SURFACE  
CYCLONE PATH WELL INLAND. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT NEAR-SURFACE  
DESTABILIZATION, STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL  
THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR A TORNADO WITH PRE-FRONTAL  
CONVECTION, MAINLY IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME.  
 
..THOMPSON/BENTLEY.. 01/19/2019  
 

 
 
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