328
ACUS01 KWNS 230102
SWODY1
SPC AC 230100
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...AND CENTRAL OREGON...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, MIDDLE TEXAS COAST, AND
CENTRAL OREGON, WHERE ISOLATED HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
..MID-ATLANTIC
DISORGANIZED/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN VA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
NC. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 30 KT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
INCREASING CONVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL ASCENT AND A WARM/MOIST PBL (AS
SAMPLED BY THE MHX 00Z SOUNDING) MAY SUPPORT A MODEST UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AROUND 30 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD PROMOTE LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS, WITH THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND GUSTS IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST. THE
MAIN SEVERE RISK WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, GIVEN A VERY
MOIST/DIURNALLY DESTABILIZED DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS (LOWER 90S
TEMPERATURES AMID LOWER 80S DEWPOINTS) AND AROUND 30 KT OF
NORTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (PER THE HGX VWP).
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
IN NORTHEAST CO, THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE EVOLVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO A PLUME OF INCREASINGLY RICH PBL MOISTURE
(UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS) AND A BELT OF MODESTLY ENHANCED
LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE-SCALE RIDGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. FOR MORE
DETAILS, SEE MCD #1713.
..CENTRAL OREGON
A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS AND CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL OR, WHERE A BELT OF 30-KT MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
..WEINMAN.. 07/23/2026
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