227
ACUS01 KWNS 031924
SWODY1
SPC AC 031922
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2026
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN MISSOURI INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (SEE BELOW) REMAINS ON TRACK.
..SQUITIERI.. 05/03/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 03 2026/
..NORTHERN/EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND MODEST-CALIBER MOIST ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
DECELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT. THE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND MIXING, SHOULD KEEP THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET, SUFFICIENT MOISTENING ATOP THE DECOUPLING
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE ROOTED AROUND 750-850 MB,
AND WHILE ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE ROBUST, THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD YIELD SOME SEVERE HAIL (AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS) IN THE
PRESENCE OF 40+ KT SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER.
..FAR SOUTH FLORIDA
WHILE A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
CLOUD COVER AND AN INCREASINGLY PREVALENT POST-FRONTAL REGIME, ALONG
WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER, SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT STORM INTENSITY INLAND.
..NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST OREGON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT MODEST BUOYANCY AMID
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE WESTWARD PROGRESSING STORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
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