114
ACUS01 KWNS 300551
SWODY1
SPC AC 300549
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF
COAST.
..CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
AT MID-LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT, MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S F WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOIST AIRMASS BY LATE
MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT AROUND
MIDDAY WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MCS DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM HURON, SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWARD TO
NEAR GRAND ISLAND, NEBRASKA HAVE MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A MIXED MODE INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND
SEVERE LINE SEGMENTS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY CELL OR LINE THAT CAN BECOME INTENSE IN AREAS THAT
DESTABILIZE THE MOST. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
TO MID EVENING AS A RELATIVELY LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FURTHER WEST INTO PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS, POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AND ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK IN THESE AREAS, TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING
WILL AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..EASTERN GULF COAST
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES DURING THE DAY
NEAR THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES/SQUITIERI.. 07/30/2026
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