959
ACUS01 KWNS 051612
SWODY1
SPC AC 051610
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT SUN APR 05 2026
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
..CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC
WITHIN THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE GREAT LAKES, MULTIPLE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS TODAY. ONGOING SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY AN
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT, BUT SOME CLOUD BREAKS
WILL ALLOW FOR FILTERED PRE-FRONTAL HEATING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VA.
UP TO 100-300 J/KG OF MLCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
MID-ATLANTIC, WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS WHERE GREATER HEATING SHOULD OCCUR. A BROKEN LINE OF
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. MODESTLY CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 25-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
CLUSTERS/BANDS OF CONVECTION, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN BECOME STEEPENED. HOWEVER,
POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
..UPPER MIDWEST
WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE MEAGER, COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND VERY WEAK MUCAPE MAY SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO
NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI NEAR A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT.
GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT. BUT WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY FORECAST, THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
..GLEASON/WENDT.. 04/05/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page