000
ACUS01 KWNS 060506
SWODY1
SPC AC 060505
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 PM CST THU FEB 05 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 10
PERCENT ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
WHILE A BLOCKING HIGH CENTERED INLAND OF THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED, IT APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE RIDGING
WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND U.S. GREAT PLAINS. SOME EXPANSION EAST OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN U.S. GREAT PLAINS IS POSSIBLE, BUT A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF ARCTIC ORIGINS LIKELY WILL REINFORCE AMPLIFIED
LARGER-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD, AS IT DIGS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. BENEATH A CONFLUENT
MID-LEVEL REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE, COLD SURFACE RIDGING
IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
APPALACHIANS VICINITY, WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REINFORCING COLD
INTRUSION ADVANCING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF BASIN THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
NEAR AND INLAND OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH BAJA COAST, BROAD
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO LINGER AND BECOME REINFORCED
BY A DIGGING SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION EMERGING FROM THE UPSTREAM
SOUTHERN MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS MAY
INCLUDE THE EVOLUTION OF A NOTABLE MID-LEVEL LOW, WHICH PROBABLY
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA
COAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
..SOUTHWEST
MODELS SUGGEST THAT MODEST MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC, COINCIDENT WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AIDED BY
MID-LEVEL COOLING, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
PARTS OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH THE EVOLVING LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLDEST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, FORCING TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INLAND REMAINS UNCLEAR. SPREAD AMONG THE MODEL OUTPUT
ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
OROGRAPHIC FORCING MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION, AND
THERE APPEARS A CONSENSUS AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM THRESHOLD THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES ACROSS AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRANSVERSE
RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. EASTWARD INTO THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS, AND NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA, THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR A BIT LESS AT THIS TIME.
..KERR.. 02/06/2026
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