186
ACUS01 KWNS 221239
SWODY1
SPC AC 221237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, WITH A SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEARS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY EARLY EVENING.
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP/MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA TODAY,
BUT POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK BUOYANCY SUGGEST THE RISK FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LOW.
FOR THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST, INTENSE LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE
IN MID-LEVEL CONVECTION, ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST-NORTH SIDE OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE.
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL COOLING AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK SBCAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN
THIS WARM-ADVECTION REGIME.
..GUYER/GRAMS.. 02/22/2026
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