815
ACUS01 KWNS 261936
SWODY1
SPC AC 261935
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
..20Z UPDATE
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..THORNTON.. 11/26/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1024 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
A DEEP CYCLONE (992 MB) WILL OCCLUDE TODAY OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST/INTO NORTH FL BY TONIGHT.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE TIDEWATER GIVEN ONLY WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND POOR THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BASED ON REGIONAL
12Z SOUNDINGS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTHEAST GA GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BUOYANCY COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTHEAST. A SEPARATE AREA OF
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST FL, DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES
AROUND 600 MB.
A BAND OF SHOWERS/SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS WV AND WESTERN PA/NY WITH GUSTY WINDS,
BUT LIGHTNING AND CONVECTIVE WIND DAMAGE APPEAR UNLIKELY.
OVERNIGHT, A LAKE EFFECT CONVECTIVE BAND IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE ERIE, WHERE BUOYANCY DEPTH COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES, THOUGH THE
THREAT WILL REMAIN ON THE MARGINS FOR AN OUTLOOK AREA.
OTHERWISE, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX
THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
MEXICO.
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