117
ACUS01 KWNS 191955
SWODY1
SPC AC 191953
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE BASED ON RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND LATEST
HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
..GEORGIA AND MID-ATLANTIC
ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA, CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR EXHIBITED MOSTLY
PULSE-LIKE BEHAVIOR WITH TRANSIENT AND WEAK UPDRAFTS. REGIONAL
VELOCITY IMAGERY SHOWS OCCASIONAL SWATHS OF STRONG WINDS EMBEDDED
WITHIN DOWNBURSTS, SO SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN HOT
LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS SURROUNDING ONGOING STORMS. HOWEVER, BASED ON
THESE OBSERVED TRENDS, LIMITED CLUSTERING, AND WEAK CONVECTIVE
SIGNALS IN LATEST GUIDANCE, THE 15% WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
TRIMMED EASTWARD TO ALIGN WITH MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
CONDITIONS (PARTICULARLY STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES) AND WHERE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. SEE MCD #1660 FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM FORECAST
INFORMATION.
FURTHER EAST, A MIX OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CELLS HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH OCCASIONAL REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE NOTED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON RECENT MESOANALYSES, THE BEST
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN VA/NC,
AND CONSIDERATION WAS MADE FOR INTRODUCING 5% HAIL PROBABILITIES.
HOWEVER, MRMS VIL/MESH TRENDS SHOW RELATIVELY TRANSIENT AND WEAK
HAIL CORES, SUGGESTING THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
LATEST HRRR/RRFS TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR SEVERE WIND ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ND AND FAR NORTHERN SD
LATER THIS EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS AS LOW 70
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO ND AND PRE-FRONTAL CUMULUS
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN SD/ND BORDER. ASIDE FROM MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS OF PROBABILITY/INTENSITY LINES TO BETTER ALIGN WITH
RECENT GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS, FORECAST THOUGHTS OUTLINED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (BELOW) REMAIN ON TRACK.
..MOORE.. 07/19/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1124 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026/
..DAKOTAS/MN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SK WILL SUPPRESS THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES INTO ND THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE
HEATING/MIXING AND WEAK ASCENT ALONG THE WIND SHIFT COULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER ABOUT 22Z BEGINNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ND AND EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN SD AND NORTHEAST ND THROUGH LATE
EVENING. THE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITH
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS FAVORING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW GUSTS (80+ MPH) AND ISOLATED VERY
LARGE HAIL (2-3+ INCH DIAMETER). STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO
A CLUSTER OR TWO TONIGHT WHILE SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN MN WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL SEVERE OUTFLOW
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
..CAROLINAS AND VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS VA/KY
TOWARD NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ~30 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW
OVERLAPS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR. THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP PER 12Z
SOUNDINGS, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90-95 F RANGE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S WILL DRIVE MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG
WITH NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE NEAR THE COLD FRONT,
AS WELL AS ALONG A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NC.
MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE THE PRIMARY EXPECTED STORM MODE WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE WITH DOWNBURSTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHEAST NC WHERE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 IN THE EASTERN GULF
NHC HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 IN THE EASTERN
GULF, CENTERED ROUGHLY 130 N MI WEST OF TAMPA AS OF 15Z. THOUGH
SOME OUTER EASTERN BANDS WILL AFFECT THE FL GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS THAT ENHANCEMENTS TO FLOW/SHEAR ARE TOO
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ANY SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF OUTER BAND
SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES ALONG THE FL GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
STILL, ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BROKEN
THUNDERSTORM BANDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH FL
AND SOUTH GA.
..AL AREA THIS AFTERNOON
STRONG SURFACE HEATING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF ONGOING STORM
CLUSTERS IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN AL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THE
CLUSTERS THAT WILL SPREAD SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
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