201
ACUS01 KWNS 261933
SWODY1
SPC AC 261931
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
EASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE ARKLAMISS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA, THROUGH
EARLY/MID-EVENING.
..20Z UPDATE - ARKLAMISS/DEEP-SOUTH
BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS, THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) HAS BEEN EXPANDED A SMALL AMOUNT EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AL. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
AMID LOW/MID 60S F DEWPOINTS. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THE
WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ARE SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF AROUND 1000
J/KG MLCAPE INTO WEST-CENTRAL AL. THIS MAY SUPPORT STRONGER/BETTER
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.
THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED NORTH AND
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AL. TRENDS IN CAMS GUIDANCE
(SPECIFICALLY FV3/RRFS MEMBERS) SUGGEST A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH. FURTHERMORE, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO
BE REPRESENTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL, AND SUGGEST ANY STORM
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INTO EAST-CENTRAL AL COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
HAIL.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL, REFERENCE MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 119.
..LEITMAN.. 02/26/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1022 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026/
..DEEP SOUTH INCLUDING ARKLAMISS TO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA
VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED TO
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHERN AR/NORTHERN LA EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN AL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE
MID 60S INTO THE LOWER 70S DEG F IN AREAS VOID OF EXTENSIVE CLOUDS,
MAINLY FROM WEST-CENTRAL AL WESTWARD.
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS BY LATE TONIGHT. AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES, A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTHEAST OK
EASTWARD ALONG THE MS-TN BORDER IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODEST MID-LEVEL COLD-AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND STEEPEN 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ACROSS MS/AL. THE
ADVECTION OF THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME AND ADDITIONAL HEATING
WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE BUOYANCY (RANGING FROM 1500+ J/KG SBCAPE
WEST, TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG EAST). GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW, BUT STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL WINDS WILL
YIELD 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY
THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR APPRECIABLE
DESTABILIZATION AND PROBABLE WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AN INITIAL
SUPERCELL STORM MODE, LEND CONFIDENCE FOR UPGRADING SEVERE HAIL
PROBABILITIES (SLIGHT RISK). A GRADUAL WANING IN STORM INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY LESSENS AND A TRANSITION
TO LESS ORGANIZED STORM MODES OCCUR.
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