864
ACUS01 KWNS 061216
SWODY1
SPC AC 061214
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 AM CDT FRI JUN 06 2025
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS...AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND....
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND A TORNADO THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EXTENDING INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS, AND
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IN THESE AREAS.
..MID MS AND TN VALLEYS
MORNING RADAR LOOP SHOWS A MATURE QUASI-LINEAR MCS OVER EASTERN OK
TRACKING INTO WESTERN AR. THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED SPORADIC SEVERE
WIND REPORTS OVERNIGHT, AND MAY CONTINUE TO POSE THAT RISK FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING, WITH
EVENTUAL REJUVENATION OF STORMS AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF KY/TN
AND VICINITY. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES ON EXTENT OF SEVERE STORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S, AND POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL ENCOURAGE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM RE-DEVELOPMENT.
..HIGH PLAINS
THE FORECAST SCENARIO FOR TODAY IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH TWO
AREAS OF FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONE IS ALONG THE
CO FOOTHILLS, WHERE MOIST/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND
MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE
OF 1000-2000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ADJACENT PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GENERALLY STRAIGHT-LINE
HODOGRAPHS, WHICH WILL PROMOTE SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE UPSCALE
DURING THE EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST KS AND SPREAD ACROSS OK OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH, YESTERDAY'S AND LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION HAS
REINFORCED A SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WILL EXTEND ACROSS WEST
TX. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, INTENSE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, POSING
ANOTHER RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.
.SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
A PLUME OF SEASONALLY HIGH PW VALUES EXTENDS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED BY MID DAY WITH AN AXIS OF 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EXPECTED
TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 18Z. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS NOT FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG, ADEQUATE FLOW SHOULD EXIST FOR AT
LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THIS INSTABILITY AXIS.
..HART/BENTLEY.. 06/06/2025
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