390
ACUS01 KWNS 211612
SWODY1
SPC AC 211610
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS, MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, SEVERE/DAMAGING
WINDS (SOME 75+ MPH), AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI,
ILLINOIS, AND INDIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..MO/IL/IN/KY
A LONG-LIVED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS
TRACKING INTO A REGION OF INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST AIR WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE RISING TO NEAR 70F AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE CAPE VALUES. ALL CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT STORMS ALONG THE LINE WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHERN IN AND NORTHERN KY. LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG, BUT SOMEWHAT VEERED. THIS INCREASES
UNCERTAINTY OF STORM MODE BETWEEN DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR BOWING
STRUCTURES. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RISK EARLY IN THE
EVENT FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS, FOLLOWED BY MULTIPLE LINEAR STORM
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORMS MAY REMAIN SEVERE
AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN OH AND EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT. REFER TO MD
#1228 FOR FURTHER SHORT-TERM DETAILS.
..MO/KS/OK/AR
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK. RAPID CLEARING IS OCCURRING
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THIS ZONE AND TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND HIGH CAPE WILL
PROMOTE THE RISK OF A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO OR TWO MIGHT ALSO OCCUR.
..NE/CO/KS
LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS, WHERE RAPID AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
OCCUR. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN WY WILL ROTATE INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, HELPING TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE, TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE RISK AREA THROUGH MID-EVENING.
..HART/MOORE.. 06/21/2026
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