764
ACUS01 KWNS 101953
SWODY1
SPC AC 101952
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
OREGON...THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...THE GREAT BASIN AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OZARKS. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM WESTERN/NORTHERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO, AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.
..20Z UPDATE
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PRIOR OUTLOOK. A PROMINENT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CLUSTER AND THE TRAILING
BOUNDARY. WITH MODERATE BUOYANCY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR, A LOW-END RISK
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL COULD DEVELOP. 5% WIND AND HAIL
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD.
TO THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, STRONG MID-LEVEL ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC COAST WAS OVERSPREADING A MARGINALLY
MOIST AND BUOYANT AIR MASS ACROSS PARTS OF NV. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT COULD SUPPORT A FEW SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS OR CLUSTERS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC HAIL. 5% WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES
HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SOUTHWARD OVER PARTS OF NV WHERE BUOYANCY AND
SHEAR OVERLAP COULD SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CA AND WESTERN OR. THE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED, SEE THE PRIOR DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..LYONS.. 04/10/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026/
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS
RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW OVER THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE,
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THIS LOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OK, AND FAR SOUTHEAST KS, BEFORE
BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY, AS WELL MODEST SOUTHEASTWARD-PROGRESSING OUTFLOW, ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TREND MORE STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH THE OUTFLOW FOLLOWING THIS
TREND AS WELL. AFTER 06Z, THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BEGIN
SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS AS WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AMID LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
BOTH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND OUTFLOW AS THE AIRMASS MODESTLY
DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT
MODEST SHEAR AND BUOYANCY SUGGESTS MOST STORMS WILL BE SUB-SEVERE.
FARTHER WEST, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SHARPENING LEE TROUGH
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAIN, PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST NM. HIGH CLOUD BASES AND
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY DEEP/MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. SOME INTERACTION
WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE IS POSSIBLE AS WELL,
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS, CONTRIBUTING TO A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AS WELL AS ISOLATED HAIL.
..NORTH-CENTRAL CA/WESTERN OR INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA COAST
IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
THIS WAVE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN OR INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR NORTHWEST. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (I.E.
-20 DEG C AT 500 MB) AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST MODEST BUOYANCY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.
A FEW AREAS (INTERIOR VALLEY OF CENTRAL CA, WILLAMETTE VALLEY IN OR,
AND NORTHERN NV/SOUTHWEST OR/SOUTHERN ID) APPEAR TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, LARGELY A
RESULT OF MORE DIURNAL HEATING/HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
GREATER BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH MODERATE/STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED CELLS/CLUSTERS, AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
SUPERCELLS, MAY DEVELOP WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL AND
LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A BIT WEAKER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEY OF CENTRAL CA BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND LOCAL
TERRAIN INFLUENCES COULD ALSO SUPPORT TRANSIENT CELL ROTATION AND
POSSIBLY FUNNELS, OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO.
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