585
ACUS01 KWNS 291612
SWODY1
SPC AC 291610
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER WEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND
SCATTERED SEVERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
SOUTHERN UTAH, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT TODAY OVER AZ/NM, WITH LARGE
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK ASCENT OVERSPREADING WEST TX/OK.
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THIS REGION IS MAINTAINING A MOIST
AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS, WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS LEADING TO POCKETS OF CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG. BY LATE
AFTERNOON, CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THIS AREA SHOW A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER SUGGESTIVE OF A
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THESE STORMS WILL CONGEAL
AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN OK DURING THE EVENING, SPREADING INTO
GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPE PROFILES. THE RISK OF HAIL MAY
INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS.
..NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST KS
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
PALMER RIDGE TO THE EAST OF DENVER, AND OVER THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST
CO. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING, WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A SUPERCELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
OR PERHAPS A TORNADO.
..MT
A CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
BORDER, THROUGH A REGION OF 1000 J/KG CAPE AND A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY-LAYER. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..HART/WENDT.. 05/29/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page