418
ACUS01 KWNS 201957
SWODY1
SPC AC 201956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
VALID 202000Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS MAY
ALSO OCCUR TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
..20Z UPDATE
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE
WIND PROBABILITIES WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
RECENT GUIDANCE.
..WENDT.. 05/20/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1101 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026/
..WV TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.,
WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE
OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A ZONE OF RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES FROM KY/WV INTO SOUTHEAST
PA/NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG HEATING IN THIS CORRIDOR
WILL LEAD TO MODERATE CAPE BY MID-AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED, WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER SUPPORTING A RISK
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL IN THE STRONGEST
CORES/CLUSTERS.
..SOUTHWEST TX
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO, WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPROACHING WEST TX.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN THIS REGION TODAY, LIMITING
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS, WITH STORMS SPREADING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.
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