662
ACUS01 KWNS 191627
SWODY1
SPC AC 191626
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING FROM MS ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA/FL...
..SUMMARY
DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A MARGINAL SEVERE-STORM THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
..MS/AL/GA/FL THROUGH TONIGHT
A BROKEN QLCS WITH SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUES TO
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM MS/SOUTHEASTERN LA INTO AL. THE LOW LEVELS
HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING IN ADVANCE OF THE
CONVECTION AS LOW 60S BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS ADVECT NORTHWARD AND
A FEW SMALL CLOUD BREAKS OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN AL. DEEP-LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR ARE LIKEWISE STRENGTHENING FROM
WEST-TO-EAST AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
A SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS EASTWARD FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE TN
VALLEY. THOUGH BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR,
MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2 WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING,
AS WELL AS DAMAGING GUSTS.
THE SEVERE-STORM THREAT SHOULD WANE GRADUALLY TONIGHT ACROSS
GA/NORTH FL AS A RESULT OF MARGINAL BUOYANCY AND SOMEWHAT STABLE
NEAR-SURFACE LAPSE RATES, DESPITE CONTINUED STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.
..EASTERN NC EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER, THERE WILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW 60S BOUNDARY-LAYER
DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD INLAND OVER EXTREME EASTERN NC, GIVEN A SURFACE
CYCLONE PATH WELL INLAND. ASSUMING SUFFICIENT NEAR-SURFACE
DESTABILIZATION, STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR A TORNADO WITH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION, MAINLY IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME.
..THOMPSON/BENTLEY.. 01/19/2019
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