115
ACUS01 KWNS 070543
SWODY1
SPC AC 070541
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST SAT DEC 06 2025
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FL
PENINSULA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..FL PENINSULA
ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST GULF ALONG A LARGELY
WEST/EAST-ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. DOWNSTREAM
CLOUDINESS/RAIN ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT PRONOUNCED
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING ACROSS IT, FROM CENTRAL TO NORTH
FL. WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR AN MCV TO EVOLVE
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION, WITHIN THE BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT CONVECTION
MAY STRENGTHEN ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TOWARDS PEAK HEATING. WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN A KEY LIMITING FACTOR TO
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. BUT ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR
TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL ROTATION. WITH A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ANTICIPATED
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH FL, A FEW STRONG GUSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE AN
AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE, EXPECTED
MODEST LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
..GRAMS/THORNTON.. 12/07/2025
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