946
ACUS01 KWNS 160101
SWODY1
SPC AC 160059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...
..SUMMARY
A COUPLE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY A SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL THREAT, REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS, WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, A 500 MB JET STREAK,
ACCOMPANYING A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE, IS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. AS A RESULT, WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING AND NORTHWARD
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE SUPPORTING A BAND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST-NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT GLANCING THE UPPER RIDGE PERIPHERY, AMID
MODERATE BUOYANCY, WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
PULSE CELLULAR AND MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS, WITH A HISTORY OF SEVERE
GUSTS, CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW TO MID 90S F SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT WARM
TEMPERATURES, NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD EVENTUALLY REDUCE SEVERE GUST
POTENTIAL. IN THE MEANTIME, 1500+ J/KG DCAPE WILL PROMOTE ADEQUATE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER STORM CORES TO
SUPPORT A SHORT-DURATION SEVERE GUST THREAT.
..NORTHWESTERN OK TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN PROGRESS ALONG THE
WEST-NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN THE 500 MB JET
STREAK OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY, 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
IS OVERSPREADING THE UPPER RIDGE PERIPHERY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
MO, WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED. 1000-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE OVERLAPPING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS, ACCOMPANIED BY A
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/16/2026
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