208
ACUS01 KWNS 311955
SWODY1
SPC AC 311954
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
VALID 312000Z - 011200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
..20Z UPDATE DISCUSSION
NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
..BROYLES.. 12/31/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1010 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025/
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
WITH UPPER RIDGING REMAINING PROMINENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
UPPER TROUGHING CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES, THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THOUGH TONIGHT FOR A LARGE MAJORITY
OF THE CONUS. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE CA COAST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATED INSTABILITY ARE BOTH
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED, INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
GRADUALLY COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES PRECEDING THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW MAY STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING FLASHES, MAINLY AFTER 01/06Z. BOTH
MUCAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEAR TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT A MEANINGFUL
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD (12Z THURSDAY MORNING).
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