933
ACUS01 KWNS 012002
SWODY1
SPC AC 012000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2026
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO
LIKELY FROM THE OZARKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
..20Z UPDATE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (SEE BELOW) REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK. A
RELATIVELY MORE ORGANIZED COLD-POOL-DRIVEN MCS IS CONTINUING TO
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MS INTO CENTRAL AL, WITH A
HISTORY OF DAMAGING GUSTS. THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE A
DIFFUSE BUOYANCY AXIS AND PRODUCE ADDITIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH WEAKENING SHOULD EVENTUALLY OCCUR AS THE MCS
PROPAGATES AWAY FROM THE RELATIVELY STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN MO SHOULD CONGEAL INTO ANOTHER COLD-POOL-DRIVEN MCS AND
DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO STRONG BUOYANCY, CHARACTERIZED BY OVER 4000
J/KG MLCAPE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER POOR ACROSS THE MID-MS
VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME BUOYANCY SHOULD
COMPENSATE TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE DAMAGING GUSTS. THE NEXT COLD-POOL
DRIVEN MCS IN THE SERIES SHOULD DEVELOP FROM ONGOING SEVERE HAIL
PRODUCING SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHICH ARE
POISED TO GROW UPSCALE LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE AN MCS DEVELOPS, A
SWATH OF SEVERE GUSTS IS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL KS.
..SQUITIERI.. 06/01/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1129 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2026/
..MID-SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST
AN MCS IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH
PRECEDING OUTFLOW ARCING FROM SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST TN.
SOME BRIEF INTENSIFICATION WAS NOTED ALONG THIS OUTFLOW, ALTHOUGH
UPDRAFT STRENGTH CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT. GENERAL
EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS PATTERN OF BRIEF INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BEFORE BUILDING INSTABILITY ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW RESULTS IN UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT CYCLES
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS. HOWEVER, GIVEN
LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, OVERALL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TRANSIENT.
ADDITIONAL NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MO INTO NORTHERN AR (AND PERHAPS
WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS). DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AMID AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG
BUOYANCY, WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 J/KG. THIS BUOYANCY WILL
SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS, BUT WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION, CONTRIBUTING TO AN OUTFLOW-DOMINANT, MULTICELLULAR
MODE. EVEN WITH LIMITED ORGANIZATION, THE UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT CYCLES
SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME ISOLATED HAIL.
THE STORMS, WHETHER WITH THE ONGOING CLUSTER OR NEWER DEVELOPMENT
FARTHER WEST, MAY SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL MS/AL DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.
..HIGH PLAINS
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CO, WITH MOIST
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW. ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.
EVEN SO, THIS MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL FOSTER MODERATE BUOYANCY, WITH MLCAPE LIKELY AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL CO BY
MID-AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE TO ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE
CYCLE, BUT A TREND TOWARDS A MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STRUCTURE LEADS
TO BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS. ISOLATED GUSTS
OVER 65 KT ARE POSSIBLE. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS
IS POSSIBLE WITH ONE OR MORE OF THESE BOWING SEGMENTS THIS EVENING
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND THE CLUSTERS ENCOUNTER GREATER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE DRYLINE IN TX.
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