318
ACUS01 KWNS 201627
SWODY1
SPC AC 201625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
..SOUTHWEST
BENEATH A BELT OF 30-40-KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN AZ INTO WESTERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING AMID MIDDLE/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS WILL
YIELD WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY, WHICH COMBINED WITH AROUND 35 KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, MAY PROMOTE TRANSIENT STORM ORGANIZATION. WHILE
AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (AROUND 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER) AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED/LIMITED TODAY.
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AZ AS FORCING FOR ASCENT STRENGTHENS WITHIN
THE EXIT REGION OF A ROBUST MIDLEVEL JET. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE INCREASING, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
AMID WEAK BUOYANCY -- LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK.
..WEINMAN.. 10/20/2026
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