411
ACUS01 KWNS 211957
SWODY1
SPC AC 211956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR.
..DISCUSSION
THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MOVED SLIGHT BACK FARTHER
WEST TO WHERE ONGOING STORMS ARE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. MRMS MESH CURRENTLY SHOWS AROUND 1 INCH HAIL WITH THESE
CELLS WITH SOME STRENGTHENING ANTICIPATED AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE EAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE MCD
812.
A FEW STRONGER CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHERE GREATER
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE. SEE MCD 813 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THE STORMS
IN THIS AREA.
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEE MCD 814 FOR ADDITIONAL
DISCUSSION.
..BENTLEY.. 05/21/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1115 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026/
..HIGH PLAINS
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
WY/CO. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD WEAK/BROAD LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SD TO NM THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN AN AXIS
OF 40S/50S DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY
ERODING, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM FIRST OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NM.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD WEST TX WITH A RISK
OF LARGE HAIL.
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON, STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE RATON AND
PALMER RIDGES, SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN KS THIS EVENING.
SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA WILL BE STRONGER THAN FARTHER SOUTH,
SUPPORTING LONGER-LIVED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO MAY ALSO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN WY AND INTO THE BLACK HILLS REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
..CAROLINAS/VA
CLEAR SKIES ARE LEADING TO STRONG HEATING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN VA
INTO PART OF NC/SC. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM IN THIS ZONE, WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT CAPE SUPPORTING A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE
STRONGEST CELLS.
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