327
ACUS01 KWNS 190455
SWODY1
SPC AC 190453
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO
FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM NORTH
TEXAS/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES
AND INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
..MN INTO WI
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA, WITH A BROAD
FETCH OF MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND PLAINS. A PROGRESSIVE EMBEDDED WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH 00Z, WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE INTO NORTHERN MN. STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH 50S
F DEWPOINTS AND CONVERGENCE NEAR A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF MN AND NORTHERN WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
COLD PROFILES ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AREAS, THOUGH SHEAR WILL BE
WEAKER. SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER OVER SOUTHERN MN, BUT INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE. EITHER WAY, CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL APPEAR
MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE COOL PROFILES ALOFT. A FEW CELLS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH HAIL OVER 1.00".
..FROM EASTERN TX INTO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY DAY RAIN AND STORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER NORTHERN TX INTO OK,
WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOW INTO CENTRAL TX. A POTENTIAL MIDLEVEL WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OK/TX STORMS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AS IT PROCEEDS EAST/SOUTHEAST, INTERACTING WITH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S F DEWPOINTS. SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK, BUT AMPLE PWAT AND CAPE MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
FARTHER EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS, A LEADING WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THAT AREA EARLY IN THE DAY AS WELL. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE ENHANCED
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND
DAMAGING GUSTS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE.
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE FL PENINSULA, WITH
NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS. MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM, PWAT OVER 2.00" AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LEAD TO ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.
..CENTRAL PLAINS
BENEATH MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST CO, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL AID MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH 50S TO PERHAPS NEAR 60
F DEWPOINTS ACROSS KS, EASTERN CO AND INTO NE. IT IS QUESTIONABLE IF
ANY STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE COOL,
BUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY
YIELD A FEW ELEVATED STORMS. THEN OVERNIGHT, ADDITIONAL WARM
ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. HAIL
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK.
..JEWELL/SQUITIERI.. 06/19/2026
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