648
ACUS01 KWNS 310515
SWODY1
SPC AC 310513
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
..SOUTHERN CA
SEASONALLY STRONG SOUTHERN-STREAM UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN CA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONG 500MB SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY 01/12Z, AND THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THIS
SPEED MAX WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT AS
IT SURGES INLAND, PRIMARILY AFTER 09Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE
COAST SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, WITH
INITIAL CONVECTION LIKELY ROOTED ABOVE 850MB. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, THE LEVEL OF PARCEL LIFT SHOULD LOWER, BUT LIKELY REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. EVEN SO, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, AND BUOYANCY APPEARS INADEQUATE FOR ANY
MEANINGFUL RISK OF SEVERE.
..DARROW/SQUITIERI.. 12/31/2025
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