764
ACUS01 KWNS 250548
SWODY1
SPC AC 250546
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST/DEEP SOUTH THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A
COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA.
..SYNOPSIS
LATE-EVENING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE OVER
EAST TX/LA TRANSLATING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WITH A MORE COMPACT,
AMPLIFYING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
FURTHER DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE SOUTHERN WAVE IS ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT LIFTS INTO THE APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC. AS
THIS OCCURS, A WEAK SURFACE LOW (ANALYZED OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY AS
OF 05 UTC) WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MS, AL, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. WHILE BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MODEST, STRONG
WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..SOUTHEAST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING BY 12 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MS AND NORTHWEST AL AS REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN TANDEM WITH THE EARLY-MORNING MAXIMUM IN
INHIBITION. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST MS/NORTHERN AL AS DIURNAL HEATING
INCREASES, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS UNCERTAIN.
30-40 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 1-2 KM LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SEASONALLY WARM/MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST AL BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADEQUATE
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG, ALONG-BOUNDARY DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL FAVOR A BROKEN LINE OF CELLS/CLUSTERS BY
MID-AFTERNOON. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM, AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
HELICITY (ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON) WILL
SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE/ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY
MODULATE THE TORNADO THREAT TO SOME DEGREE, BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL, THE OVERALL
ENSEMBLE SIGNAL FOR INTENSE CONVECTION IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, SUGGESTING THAT THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED. NONETHELESS, SLIGHT-RISK PROBABILITIES WERE
MAINTAINED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL AL
WHERE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY.
..MOORE/JEWELL.. 11/25/2025
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