149
ACUS01 KWNS 240052
SWODY1
SPC AC 240051
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, INTERIOR NORTHWEST, AND
SOUTH TEXAS.
..SOUTHWEST KS VICINITY
CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN KS, IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR OCCASIONAL STORM ORGANIZATION,
THOUGH GENERALLY MODEST BUOYANCY AND A TENDENCY FOR MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP/PERSIST TO THE COOL SIDE OF INCREASING OUTFLOW
MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. A
NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR AND EAST OF DODGE CITY APPEARS TO HAVE THE
GREATEST SEVERE RISK THROUGH DUSK, THOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
..INTERIOR NORTHWEST
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING
FROM EASTERN OR INTO SOUTHEAST WA AND WESTERN ID. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG
AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
STORM ORGANIZATION, WITH A THREAT ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE
GUSTS. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION.
..SOUTH TEXAS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA IS CENTERED OVER THE HOUSTON VICINITY
THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING (REFERENCE NHC ADVISORIES FOR MORE INFORMATION). TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF BERTHA, MODESTLY ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW PERSISTS
THIS EVENING, PER REGIONAL VWPS. CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH DUSK, WITH SOME THREAT POSSIBLY
PERSISTING INTO LATE EVENING INTO PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
..DEAN.. 07/24/2026
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