466
ACUS01 KWNS 231300
SWODY1
SPC AC 231259
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
..SUMMARY
A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR
THE COAST IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
..CA
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN CA
COAST LATE TONIGHT AS AN ATTENDANT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO NORTHERN CA. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES WERE
NOTED IN SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET OPERATIONAL
RUNS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT THAN 00-06Z RUNS
OF THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN AND THE 00Z HREF MEAN. HEDGING TOWARDS A
SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE FORECAST SOLUTION AND RELATED WIND FIELD
DEPICTIONS. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO COINCIDES WITH A SURFACE FRONT
SURGING INLAND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, AROUND 24/12Z. ALTHOUGH
PRE-FRONTAL BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED (100-200
J/KG MUCAPE), THE DEEPER LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY YIELD A
SEVERE-WIND RISK DURING THE 08-12Z PERIOD NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST
BEFORE BUOYANCY DIMINISHES INLAND.
..SOUTH TX
WEAK MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH INTO DEEP SOUTH TX LATE
THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODEST SBCAPE WILL DEVELOP
BY MID DAY AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. WIND FIELDS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK, ALONG WITH FORCING, SO THE
RISK OF SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THIS PERIOD.
..SMITH/WEINMAN.. 12/23/2025
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