860
ACUS02 KWNS 011656
SWODY2
SPC AC 011654
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT THU OCT 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. ON FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
AN ENERGETIC POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS, FEATURING A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST, AND AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT LOWER LATITUDES,
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH INITIALLY FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CUT OFF FROM THE
HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW TO THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
INITIALLY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
MS AND OH RIVERS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE SOUTH,
REACHING THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO THE TX
COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY.
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ALONG A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. A
SUBSET OF THE EARLY-DAY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON, LIMITING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IN THOSE AREAS. WHERE
STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR, THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL YIELD CORRIDORS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY, WHICH IN TURN WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO OVERLIE THE FRONTAL ZONE. THERE,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO TEMPER UPDRAFT INTENSITY AND DEPTH (AND PERHAPS EVEN
LIGHTNING PRODUCTION). ON THE CONDITION THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS TO SUSTAIN SURFACE-BASED STORMS, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS APPEAR
POSSIBLE OWING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
..MEAD.. 10/01/2026
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