759
ACUS02 KWNS 311732
SWODY2
SPC AC 311730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...AND FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVER PARTS OF
NEW YORK, PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
ALSO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO NEBRASKA.
..MUCH OF SOUTHERN NY AND PA...NJ...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
SCATTERED MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION TUESDAY MORNING, AS WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAINTAIN A
THETA-E PLUME. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO WANE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER NY. DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER, WITH MLCAPE AVERAGING
3000 J/KG. THIS WILL ALSO OCCUR BENEATH MIDLEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
NEAR 40 KT.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT,
PERHAPS OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND THESE WOULD LIKELY MOVE
SOUTHEAST/TO SOUTH WITH HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
OTHER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST PA/NJ NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW, AND, FARTHER UPSTREAM NEAR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST NEAR THE HUDSON VALLEY AND THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT, AND THIS INCREASED SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO.
..NE INTO SOUTHERN MN & WI
A LEAD WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF CO AND ACROSS NE, SD, AND MN
TUESDAY. MIDLEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE 40-50 KT
RANGE, THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL NOT COOL MUCH. MEANWHILE, A
STALLED FONT WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM CENTRAL NE INTO IA. STRONG
HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THIS FRONT,
WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 60S F. THE RESULT WILL BE A ZONE
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, CONDITIONALLY FAVORING SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND FARTHER SOUTH NEAR A
SURFACE LOW OVER NE AS STRONGLY HEATED AIR MASS DEVELOPS. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN STORM COVERAGE, WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.
..UPPER TX COAST
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE UPPER TX
COAST ON TUESDAY. WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
CONCENTRATED, AND NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. AS SUCH, TORNADO
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS CYCLES WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER-THAN-FORECAST SHEAR
AND POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF 2% TORNADO PROBABILITIES.
..JEWELL.. 08/31/2026
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