165  
ACUS02 KWNS 230525  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 230524  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1224 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN OK...MUCH OF AR...AND SOUTHERN MO...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA, NORTHEAST TEXAS,  
MUCH OF ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING.  
   
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
 
 
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS ON  
SUNDAY WHILE A MATURE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH THE MID MS  
VALLEY, AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA  
COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH (AND  
ACCOMPANYING ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT) WILL MOVE QUICKLY WITHIN THIS  
ZONAL FLOW, FROM ITS EARLY PERIOD POSITION NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS  
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
MOISTURE RETURN IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AND MUCH OF THIS  
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS  
EASTERN OK, WESTERN AR AND SOUTHERN MO ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN  
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND 60 DEG F ACROSS  
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR AT 00Z MONDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS  
ARE EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MO. INCREASED FORCING FOR  
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH, COUPLED WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH OF A PREVIOUSLY STALLED  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION  
WITHIN THIS MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
EVEN SO, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE IS UNCERTAIN,  
PRIMARILY DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS. WARM LOW  
TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RESULT IN MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION,  
WHICH COULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND IMPEDE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITHIN  
THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, IN CONTRAST, VERTICAL SHEAR  
WILL BE STRONG, WHICH MAY COMPENSATE FOR SOME OF THESE UNFAVORABLE  
THERMODYNAMICS. THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  
FEW SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES, LARGE HAIL APPEARS  
TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT, ALTHOUGH SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS  
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. QUICK LINEAR TRANSITION OF ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD  
LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL.  
   
..MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD
 
 
TORNADO: 2% - MARGINAL  
WIND: 5% - MARGINAL  
HAIL: 5% - MARGINAL  
 
..MOSIER.. 03/23/2019  
 

 
 
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