085
ACUS02 KWNS 281732
SWODY2
SPC AC 281730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALSO FROM
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY IMPACT A CORRIDOR FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
VICINITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG
STORMS POSING AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
..LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH EXTENSIVE D1/TUESDAY CONVECTION IS FORECAST
BY MOST GUIDANCE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL DEFINED NEAR
THE NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE
TRAILING PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.
DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING REMAIN
UNCLEAR, BUT WITH MODERATE MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
OVERSPREADING RESIDUAL MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY, THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL AGAIN CONDITIONALLY FAVOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENING.
SOME GUIDANCE (BOTH REGIONAL/GLOBAL AND CAMS) SUGGESTS THAT A
LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY EMERGE FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO AND INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TX, DURING THE MORNING, WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE INTO PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST, NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
INITIAL DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT COULD POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL, WITH A CONDITIONAL VERY LARGE HAIL RISK WITH ANY ROBUST
SUPERCELL. WITH RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW,
ONE OR MORE EASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE WITH TIME AND TRACK
IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT, POSING A THREAT OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. PARTS OF THE REGION MAY REQUIRE HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES, ONCE MESOSCALE DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS WITH
TIME.
..ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
WITHIN A BROAD LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS, A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE UPPER OH VALLEY TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION,
AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF VA/MD AND THE CAROLINAS.
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF MORNING
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN FROM PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. ASCENT RELATED TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES COULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG CLUSTERS OR MARGINAL SUPERCELLS, IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND, A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO, AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL COULD DEVELOP, THOUGH THE
MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF THESE THREATS REMAIN TOO UNCERTAIN FOR A
CATEGORICAL UPGRADE AT THIS TIME. HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED, IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND/OR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS.
..DEAN.. 04/28/2026
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