614
ACUS02 KWNS 290601
SWODY2
SPC AC 290559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR
FROM PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED 50 TO 70 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET
WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A DRYLINE WILL BECOME WELL-DEFINED FROM THE
LOW SOUTHWARD INTO WEST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST OF
THE DRYLINE, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WHERE MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN
THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH, WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUPPORTING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS A LINE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN A INCREASE OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BY 21Z OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 35
TO 40 KNOT RANGE, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
SUPERCELLS WILL BE MOST LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENT, WHEN STORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO BE DISCRETE. SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. AS CELL COVERAGE INCREASES, A LINE IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE. IN ADDITION, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO INCREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING, WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LINE.
THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MID EVENING, AS THE
LINE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS.
..WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY, AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY AFTERNOON, AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN KANSAS. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NEAR AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR
THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE
COULD PEAK NEAR 1000 J/KG. THIS, COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 30
KNOTS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL.
..BROYLES.. 09/29/2026
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