134
ACUS02 KWNS 130517
SWODY2
SPC AC 130515
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA.
..MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL
PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
AHEAD OF THIS MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH, MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LEAD
IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOW TO MIDLEVEL WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 30-40 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES. THIS ENHANCED
FLOW WILL AID IN ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IN MULTIPLE BANDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO THE LEE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NC/VA PIEDMONT AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
VICINITY INTO SOUTHEAST PA/SOUTHERN NJ. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT AT LEAST LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FILTER INTO MUCH OF PA AND NY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. STRONG HEATING WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION, WITH MLCAPE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS
EASTERN VA/NC AND VICINITY. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE MUTED
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LESS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES RATHER POOR.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
LEE TROUGHING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE/DELMARVA/SOUTHEAST PA/SOUTHERN NJ VICINITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS, THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL OR A TORNADO ALSO
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE, HIGHER COVERAGE
PROBABILITIES/UPGRADE TO ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) COULD BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. FOR NOW, WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED
TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO SOUTHEAST PA/SOUTHERN NJ.
ADDITIONAL BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO PA/NY. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER ACROSS THIS AREA,
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE STRONGER. LINEAR BANDS AND CLUSTERS WILL
POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
EVENING.
..SOUTHEAST NM TO THE ARKLATEX
A SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE FRONT/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW WILL EXTEND WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED CONVECTION
COLD POSE A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NM/SOUTHWEST TX, A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE HAIL. WEAK
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND CONVECTION BECOMING UNDERCUT BY THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..LEITMAN.. 06/13/2026
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