483
ACUS02 KWNS 260558
SWODY2
SPC AC 260557
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. DAMAGING WIND, HAIL AND A TORNADO OR
TWO MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
..MID ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST
AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND A BROADER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
FROM NEAR LAKE ERIE TO THE VT/NH REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT AS MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECT NORTHWARD. MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG, HOWEVER, SOME STRONGER FLOW IS EVIDENT
ABOVE 7KM ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WIND PROFILE WILL SUPPORT A
PREDOMINANTLY MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE. HOWEVER, A FEW SUPERCELLS
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT, BUT A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND VICINITY WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT SOME MODEST LOW-LEVEL VEERING.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW 60S DEWPOINTS
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 40+ KNOTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. HOWEVER, RISING
HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE MAY KEEP
CONVECTION MOSTLY SUPPRESSED. NONETHELESS, ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
CONDITIONAL 2+ INCH HAIL AND 75+ MPH WIND GUST THREAT.
..BENTLEY.. 08/26/2026
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