613
ACUS02 KWNS 030550
SWODY2
SPC AC 030549
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. ON SATURDAY, AS AN ASSOCIATED 60 TO 75 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET
TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS DURING THE DAY, WITH
SBCAPE LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY BECOMES FOCUSED. A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IN CENTRAL OHIO, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE 0-6 KM
SHEAR FROM 25 KNOTS AT MIDDAY INTO THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE
GREATEST WIND-DAMAGE THREAT IS FORECAST FROM OHIO SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
AS THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH. THIS
WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. FURTHER EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER, BUT A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BECOME STEEP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
MAY ALSO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WHERE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ARK-LA-TEX AND
TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES NEAR THE FRONT, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF COAST DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVER MUCH OF THE MOIST SECTOR,
SBCAPE IS FORECAST IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR.
..BROYLES.. 04/03/2026
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