913
ACUS02 KWNS 140600
SWODY2
SPC AC 140558
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...
..SUMMARY
A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT IS LIKELY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE GREATEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT APPEARS TO
BE FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS/WESTERN TENNESSEE TO SOUTHERN INDIANA
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..SYNOPSIS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY, WITH AN INTENSIFYING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN MS INTO
MONDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM IA/MO
INTO NORTHERN IL DURING THE DAY, WITH FURTHER DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS
IT PIVOTS INTO LOWER MI. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM
THE LOW, FROM IL INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND INTO EASTERN TX AT 00Z. THIS
FRONT WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS THE OH, TN, AND LOWER MS VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT, EXTENDING FROM OH TO THE FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z MONDAY.
A BROAD ZONE OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EXIST WELL AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, AIDED BY A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND 40-60 KT 850 MB WINDS THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. AN INITIAL
LOW-LEVEL MOIST PLUME WILL DEVELOP FROM EASTERN TX ACROSS AR AND
TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY, WITH DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60
F. CONTINUED WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING, AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES VERY STRONG, RANGING FROM 50-60 KT OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES TO 75 KT INTO IN, OH, KY. DEWPOINTS INTO THE
MID 50S F WILL LIKELY REACH ACROSS MUCH OF IL, IN, AND FAR SOUTHERN
LOWER MI.
AS THE COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE DEVELOPING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
PLUME, STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM WESTERN IL/MO SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX BY 21Z, WITH A RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
SQUALL LINE/QLCS, PEAKING IN THE 00 TO 06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE
HEART OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA.
FARTHER EAST, A SECONDARY MOISTURE PLUME WILL DEVELOP ACROSS GA AND
THE CAROLINAS, POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT,
AND PERHAPS ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST.
...NORTHEAST TX ACROSS THE MS AND OH VALLEYS AND UP TO IN/OH/LOWER
MI...
WHILE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH DEVELOPING
EXTREME SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING
WINDS, WITH A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL. SHALLOW CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM MO INTO WESTERN AR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES.
STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING, FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND
EASTERN AR, WITH INCREASING WIND AND TORNADO RISK FROM IL/IN INTO
WESTERN KY, TN, AND NORTHEAST AR. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
RAPIDLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, WITH CONTINUED WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADO RISK FROM OH TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A
CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO EXIST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT INTO AL/GA IF CELLS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR EARLY
MONDAY.
..JEWELL.. 03/14/2026
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