792
ACUS02 KWNS 291726
SWODY2
SPC AC 291724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY FROM PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A LEE SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
..WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
A DRYLINE WILL BEND NORTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVERSPREADS THE REGION, INHIBITION WILL ERODE AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
MIXING OF THE SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, FARTHER
NORTHWEST, WHERE MID-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE STRONGER, STORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY. IT IS WORTH NOTING, THAT SOME GUIDANCE
WHICH IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHWESTWARD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR A TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE OUTLIER SOLUTION RATHER
THAN A LIKELY SOLUTION. THEREFORE, THE 2% TORNADO PROBABILITIES SEEM
APPROPRIATE.
..KANSAS TO WEST TEXAS
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WEST
TEXAS TO CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK ALONG THE
DRYLINE FROM THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION,
SHALLOW MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MIX OUT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER, DESPITE THESE MITIGATING FACTORS, STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS
EXPECTED WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY UNCAPPED AIRMASS ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE. 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD RESULT IN A SUPERCELL OR
TWO.
A MORE CONCENTRATED ZONE OF STORMS MAY EXIST FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, WHERE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS ALSO GREATER. HOWEVER, WITHIN THIS
ZONE, SHEAR MAY BE MARGINAL (20 TO 25 KNOTS) WITHIN A RELATIVELY
WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE, HIGHER PROBABILITIES HAVE
NOT BEEN ADDED.
..WESTERN MISSOURI
WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM
FAR EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
..BENTLEY.. 05/29/2026
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