213
ACUS02 KWNS 170542
SWODY2
SPC AC 170540
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...PARTS OF NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...AND IOWA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID/UPPER MS VALLEY
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY HAS BECOME LESS CERTAIN WITH TIME, WITH
CURRENT CAMS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING EARLY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS
NE/IA/MO EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATION ON
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS/EVOLVES DURING THAT TIME.
NEVERTHELESS, AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS
COULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, LEADING TO MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-50 KT IN THE MIDLEVELS, PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE, A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING FRONT. MORNING
CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN A CONVECTIVE ENHANCE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND/OR OUTFLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NE/KS/MO/IA. WHERE STRONGER
HEATING CAN OCCUR WITHIN THE VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR, RESULTING IN
STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS COULD BE STORMS ALONG ONE OR
MORE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE BROADER REGION. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL STORMS. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT IS APPARENT, BUT CONDITIONAL. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR, POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD INCREASE.
MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
EASTERN WY/NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST SD/WESTERN NE/KS ARE
EXPECTED, AND INTO PARTS OF MN/WI, POSING A RISK FOR STRONG GUSTS
AND/OR HAIL.
..SOUTHEAST
A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NC AND LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, WHERE A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
BE IN PLACE BENEATH DEEP-LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN WEAK, BUT MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE SPORADIC WET
DOWNBURSTS WITHIN THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL, SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED, PRECLUDING SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 08/17/2026
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