665
ACUS02 KWNS 131731
SWODY2
SPC AC 131730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX INTO
LA AND SOUTHWEST MS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM PARTS OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS DURING THE DAY, WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI.
..SYNOPSIS
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY, BEFORE REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
VICINITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
MIDLEVEL JET (60-80 KT AT 500 MB) AND A CONSOLIDATING SURFACE LOW
THAT IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY DEEPEN AND REACH THE ARKLATEX REGION
BY EVENING. RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S F) WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
TX/OK, AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
BY EVENING, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING FROM PARTS
OF WEST/NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHERN OK, WHICH COULD POSE AN ISOLATED
HAIL THREAT. EARLY-DAY CONVECTION MAY GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED QLCS ACROSS NORTH TX AND VICINITY, WITH ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO CENTRAL TX
AS THE PRIMARY MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD. WEAK TO
LOCALLY MODERATE BUOYANCY AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
THOUGH CAM GUIDANCE VARIES REGARDING THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY DEPICTS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE
NEAR/AFTER 00Z, WHICH SHOULD AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED
QLCS DURING THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX. THIS QLCS IS
EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF LA AND LOWER MS VALLEY DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SCANT WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, STRENGTHENING LOW/MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SRH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE
ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS, WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF SCATTERED
DAMAGING WINDS. SOME INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, BOTH WITH LINE-EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES, AND ALSO POTENTIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
WARM-CONVEYOR BELT REGION THAT EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO THE PRIMARY
QLCS.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING TREND PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH THE STRONGER FORCING POTENTIALLY BECOMING DISPLACED
FROM THE EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER, SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO COULD PERSIST NEAR THE LA/MS
COASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..DEAN.. 02/13/2026
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