343
ACUS02 KWNS 100600
SWODY2
SPC AC 100559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST.
..OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AT MID-LEVELS, WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE
SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT AN INTENSE
LINE SEGMENT COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND
NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WHERE THE BOUNDARY FROM MORNING
CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM
EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY AT 21Z HAVE MLCAPE
IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. WIND PROFILES ALONG THIS
WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST CORRIDOR HAVE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THE MID-LEVELS. SOME OF THIS ZONE COULD HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40
TO 50 KNOT RANGE ALONG WITH 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND
200 M2/S2. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. SOME MODEL FORECASTS, INCLUDING THE HRRR
SUGGEST THAT AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN A SWATH OF WIND DAMAGE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
..CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST
AT MID-LEVELS, RISING HEIGHTS AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AS A
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL AID CONVECTIVE
INITIATION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED STORMS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.
ACROSS THE MOIST AIRMASS, MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 2000 TO
3000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
HOWEVER, THE RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
COULD RESULT IN A MORE LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 08/10/2026
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