368
ACUS02 KWNS 080528
SWODY2
SPC AC 080527
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT WED JUL 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A
FEW EVOLVING CLUSTERS, MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, POSING A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SOME
HAIL.
..DISCUSSION
MODEST MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LIKELY WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE
CANADIAN/U.S BORDER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF ONE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY CONTINUING TO PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES, AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST, BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER VICINITY THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM, TO THE SOUTH OF A PERTURBATION DIGGING SOUTHEAST
OF HUDSON/JAMES BAYS, BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
OVERSPREAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH NORTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
IN LOWER LATITUDES, A NUMBER OF MORE SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PROGRESS THROUGH GENERALLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW, AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED IN THE SUBTROPICS.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A NOTABLE SIGNAL WITHIN MODEL OUTPUT THAT AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF THESE MAY BE AMPLIFIED BY DEVELOPING CONVECTION,
ACCOMPANIED BY BELTS OF STRENGTHENING FLOW WHICH COULD PROMOTE
ORGANIZING CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SWATHS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
WHILE THE MOST SUBSTANTIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY TO FOCUS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH OHIO VALLEY, AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC, MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS MAY FOCUS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND WITHIN LEE SURFACE TROUGHING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
..LOWER MISSOURI/OHIO VALLEYS
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE GENERATION OF ONE OR TWO
NOTABLE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAKS, AT
LEAST INITIALLY EMANATING FROM CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES TO FORECAST
THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE PERTURBATION, THOUGH THE 08/00Z RUN NOW
SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR WITH CONVECTION OVERSPREADING EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRENGTHENING WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW (ON THE ORDER
OF 30-50 KT AROUND 700 MB) IN A BELT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY DURING THE DAY, BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL OUTPUT, STRONGEST RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS MOST PROBABLE WITHIN FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TRAILING THE INITIAL MCV. AIDED BY INFLOW OF SEASONABLY
HIGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT (INCLUDING SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S) SUPPORTIVE OF CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000+ J/KG, VERTICAL
SHEAR MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A SUSTAINED ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS BY
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, IF NOT EARLIER.
..FRONT RANGE INTO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT MOISTENING
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY BY LATE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE FRONT RANGE. AIDED BY SHEAR DUE TO PRONOUNCED
VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO MID-LEVELS, THIS
MAY INCLUDE WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS INITIALLY.
AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION, CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE IN NUMBER ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH
CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS SUPPORTING FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH AND
EASTWARD PROPAGATION. FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE NOSE OF A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
MAINTENANCE OF A CLUSTER WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
GUSTS INTO LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
VICINITY.
..MID ATLANTIC
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN LEE SURFACE TROUGHING MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND GROW UPSCALE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, AIDED
BY FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MODEST STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL FLOW,
ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.
..SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND RELATED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, AND
PERHAPS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA, AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AIDED BY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS, INTO A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH AT LEAST WEAK CAPE, A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH ON CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS TO
GENERATE A BROADER STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.
..KERR.. 07/08/2026
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