293
ACUS02 KWNS 071734
SWODY2
SPC AC 071732
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO AND DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO, SOUTHEAST WYOMING, AND INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL, MORE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR
FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE MID-SOUTH.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WITH
TEMPORARY HEIGHT RISES OVER THE PLAINS. MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MODIFIES THERE. TO THE
SOUTH, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO EASTERLY OVER KS/NE AND INTO
EASTERN CO AND WY LATE. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL EXIST WITH THE ZONE OF
BACKED EASTERLY FLOW, AND THIS MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
ACCELERATE WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING AS 850 WINDS INCREASE AHEAD
OF A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE MID MO VALLEY, JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SURFACE HIGH.
ELSEWHERE, A WEAK MIDLEVEL WAVE WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE MS AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS, PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
MOIST AIR MASS.
..CENTRAL PLAINS
AN AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE OUT OF
THE EAST. STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM EASTERN WY INTO EASTERN CO, AND ON THE INTERFACE OF THE STEEPER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTENING/UPSLOPE AIR MASS. FAVORABLE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 50 KT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CLEARLY FAVOR
SUPERCELLS INITIALLY WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL, WITH AREAS OF
WIND-DRIVEN HAIL AS STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING HEIGHT MAY ALSO SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM
NORTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN NE, BUT SPORADIC CELLS MAY OCCUR AS FAR
NORTH AS THE BLACK HILLS AREA. FINALLY, A FEW CELLS MAY DEVELOP
WITHIN THE HOT INVERTED-V ENVIRONMENT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN
OK DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
.FAR NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL
ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. MODELS
ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ELEVATED STORMS
WITH HAIL POTENTIAL OVER EASTERN MT INTO NORTHWEST MN AS LIFT AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE.
..SOUTHEAST MO INTO WESTERN TN
A SLOW-MOVING MIDLEVEL TROUGH SHOULD AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT, AS DEEP MOISTURE IS MAINTAINED AND AREAS OF HEATING
OCCUR. NEW DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH ANY EXISTING
MCV, OR NEAR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES. LOCALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED WHICH MAY AID BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO POTENTIAL.
..JEWELL.. 06/07/2026
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