894
ACUS02 KWNS 290543
SWODY2
SPC AC 290542
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE SPORADIC OCCURRENCES
OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
THE RATON MESA VICINITY, AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST.
..SYNOPSIS
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
MORNING WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHILE A TRAILING
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST WITH THE SECONDARY SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM SD INTO MN, ALONG A COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL KS.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MO VALLEY, WITHIN A ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
PRECEDING THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. A SUBSET OF THAT CONVECTION
MAY LINGER INTO AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER LIMITING
DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION. WHERE STRONGER
HEATING CAN OCCUR, THE PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S TO LOW/MID 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE UP TO 2000-3000 J/KG.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE COOL FRONT AND ANY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS
AND/OR ACTIVE CONVECTION. A SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN MT IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE
LOW AND LEE TROUGH. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD,
THOUGH ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
A NUMBER OF PHYSICS-BASED MODELS AND AI GUIDANCE INDICATE A CORRIDOR
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL OR EASTERN NE AS BEING A
PREFERRED LOCATION FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO A
COLD-POOL-DRIVEN MCS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE THE DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL. THAT SCENARIO APPEARS PLAUSIBLE
AS THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THAT ZONE AS HAVING THE
MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST
VERTICAL SHEAR. GIVEN THESE CONSIDERATIONS, A 15% WIND PROBABILITY
CONTOUR AND RELATED LEVEL 2/SLIGHT RISK HAVE BEEN INCLUDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ALONG A
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET ARE LIKELY TO SUSTAIN A COMPLEX OF STORMS
WITH SOME DAMAGING WIND RISK THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY OVER EASTERN KS
INTO THE MID MO VALLEY.
..RATON MESA VICINITY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING FRONT AND/OR UPSLOPE IN ITS
IMMEDIATE WAKE ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. WHILE VERTICAL WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK, THE PRESENCE OF A STEEP-LAPSE-RATE
ENVIRONMENT, FEATURING A DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
EARLY-DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR
NORTHEAST GULF AND CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. TO THE NORTH OF THAT
CONVECTION, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED FRONT. DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THAT ZONE OF STRONGER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT SUPPORTIVE
OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS.
..MEAD.. 07/29/2026
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