914
ACUS02 KWNS 141740
SWODY2
SPC AC 141738
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND
GUSTS, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
A POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES LATE. MODERATE TO STRONG MID TO HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES
WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST, WITH MODERATE WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INTO IA AS THE UPPER WAVE
MOVES OUT OF NE AND KS. A FRONT/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KS, WESTERN OK AND WEST CENTRAL TX DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE, AN ELONGATED STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM IA INTO
SOUTHERN WI/MI AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH MORE OF A WARM
FRONT INTO NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY FROM TX INTO IA, WITH LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
..TX/OK/KS/IA/MO/IL
A FOCUSED AREA OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM OK/TX, THE DRYLINE SHOULD STALL
WITH STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND MLCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG.
MINIMAL LIFT WILL BE REQUIRED NEAR THE DRYLINE TO INITIATE AFTERNOON
STORMS, POSSIBLY BEFORE 21Z. CELLS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TX
ACROSS OK AND INTO SOUTHEAST KS, AND GAIN STRENGTH AS 50-60 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACTS UPON THEM. BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH AREAS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED. A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR GIVEN THE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, DESPITE MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS.
FARTHER NORTH, ANOTHER ZONE OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT FROM
NORTHERN MO INTO IA AND WESTERN IL LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HERE, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION WILL BE
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CELLS, WITH HAIL LIKELY. ANY EARLY DAY
STORMS MAY AFFECT WARM SECTOR QUALITY, BUT CONDITIONALLY, A TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..FROM WI/IL EASTWARD INTO PA
AREAS OF HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION TOWARD THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING OVER IL,
IN, SOUTHERN WI, NORTHERN OH AND INTO WESTERN PA BY 21Z. FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AVERAGING NEAR 40 KT AND AT LEAST 1500 J/KG MUCAPE
ALONG THIS ZONE WILL FAVOR STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS. STORM MODES MAY BE MIXED.
..JEWELL.. 04/14/2026
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