827
ACUS02 KWNS 230555
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN US INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
..SYNOPSIS
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE REGIME. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON D2/SUNDAY, WHICH MAY BE A FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
..NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA
A PLUME OF MID 50S TO 60S DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AMID INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THIS AREA WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS, WITH AROUND 40 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. IN ADDITION TO
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR, WILL FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL (ISOLATED VERY
LARGE HAIL UP TO 2" IN DIAMETER). WELL MIXED PROFILES MAY ALSO
SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND.
..THORNTON.. 05/23/2026
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