203
ACUS02 KWNS 190546
SWODY2
SPC AC 190544
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE MID SOUTH...AND THE MID ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC, FROM NEBRASKA INTO WISCONSIN, AND OVER PARTS OF THE
MID SOUTH.
..FROM NE INTO NORTHWEST WI
MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH 30-40 KT AT 500 MB COMMON. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO NORTHERN MN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN SD AND INTO NORTHERN NE BY 00Z.
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST EAST OF THIS AREA, POCKETS OF 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL STILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND, TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BE COOL. DAYTIME HEATING WILL THUS SUPPORT
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE FRONT, WITH SCATTERED STORMS FROM
NORTHEAST MN/NORTHERN WI INTO NE. FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND
40 KT ALONG WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT CELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL. ISOLATED HAIL NEAR 2.00" CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER NE, BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON ACTUAL MOISTURE RETURN AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
THAN FORECAST INSTABILITY.
..MID ATLANTIC
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ALONG A FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PA/CENTRAL NJ, WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS INTO EASTERN VA/NORTHEAST NC WITH A INCREASING
CONVERGENCE THERE. ACROSS THIS SMALL WARM SECTOR, UPPER 60S TO 70S F
DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO A ZONE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEAST PA/NJ INTO MD, DE, AND EASTERN
VA. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN NC.
20-30 KT MEAN WINDS ABOVE 700 MB WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF CELLS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL.
..MID SOUTH
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE RED RIVER EASTWARD ACROSS AR
AND INTO NORTHERN MS, WITH A WEAK WIND SHIFT PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLUSTER OF
STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z OVER NORTHERN MS INTO SOUTHWEST TN. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MOIST, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100
F AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.00". SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, AND
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, POSSIBLY SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS. ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL.
..JEWELL.. 08/19/2026
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