292
ACUS02 KWNS 251721
SWODY2
SPC AC 251719
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
..FROM EASTERN SD AND NE TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE MAJOR UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
PLACEMENT OF THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE STORM CORRIDORS, WITH A WIDE
RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL, THE MOST LIKELY THREAT AREAS
INCLUDE NORTHERN MN INTO WI AND UPPER MI, ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND WHERE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL EXIST COINCIDENT
WITH STRONG INSTABILITY, AND FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHEAST NE
WITHIN A SUPER-HEATED SURFACE TROUGH.
BENEATH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES, AREAS OF STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND 70S F DEWPOINTS, FROM PARTS OF MN INTO WI. MODELS SUGGEST
VARIOUS STORM CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY, AND THESE WOULD
TRAVEL QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL LIKELY.
SOME SEVERE ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA INTO MORE OF NORTHERN IL, IN, AND LOWER MI. HOWEVER, THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR EASTWARD EXTENT.
CLUSTERS OF STORMS, POSSIBLY FORMING INTO A SMALL MCS, ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WHERE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES DEVELOP INTO SD. THE DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
SD, WITH A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA.
..SC AND GA
DAYTIME HEATING OF A HIGH PWAT AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER
THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND INTO EASTERN GA, WITH AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE YIELDING SCATTERED STORMS. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK,
BUT MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AS STORMS DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST.
..JEWELL.. 07/25/2026
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