458
ACUS02 KWNS 080632
SWODY2
SPC AC 080630
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CDT SAT AUG 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...
CORRECTED FOR THUNDERLINE
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERE GUSTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, MAINE AND
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
...NORTHERN PLAINS/MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON, LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. FOR THAT REASON, THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONFINED TO AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BECOMES MAXIMIZED. SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW AN EAST-TO-WEST AXIS OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM IOWA INTO NORTHERN INDIANA,
SUGGESTING THIS COULD BE A FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THIS AXIS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HAVE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS AND SHORT INTENSE LINE
SEGMENTS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
FURTHER WEST INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY. A
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 F. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR
THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..MAINE
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE
DAY, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE NEAR THE
FRONT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN MAINE. THESE
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY, STEEP LOW
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT.
..SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S F. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE
1.70 TO 1.85 INCH RANGE, WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WET DOWNBURSTS AS INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
..SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 F ON SUNDAY. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY,
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA, WITH THE STORMS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE UNSTABLE
AIR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 08/08/2026
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