793
ACUS02 KWNS 291725
SWODY2
SPC AC 291724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY A SEVERE WIND
AND HAIL THREAT, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY.
..DISCUSSION
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY,
WITH UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER SK. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING
WIND FIELDS AND COOLING ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
DAKOTAS LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN SD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO EXTEND EASTWARD
FROM SD INTO SOUTHERN MN, WI AND LOWER MI, WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO EXIST.
ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MN INTO IA, WI AND LOWER MI, THOUGH MODELS ARE QUITE
VARIABLE. WINDS AT 850 MB WILL BE VEERED TO WEST/SOUTHWEST, AND
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS SUCH, ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED, WITH LOW SEVERE
CHANCES IF ANY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN MT INTO NORTHEAST WY, NORTHWEST SD, AND INTO
MUCH OF ND. THESE MAY BE MIXED MODE STORMS, AS WINDS BELOW 500 MB
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK, THOUGH HIGH LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER. SCATTERED SEVERE GUSTS OR HAIL ABOVE 1.00" APPEAR LIKELY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS ACTIVITY PUSHES ACROSS ND AND INTO NORTHERN MN.
FARTHER SOUTH, SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS HIGH BASED CONVECTION MOVES OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF CO/WY, AIDED BY 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL WESTERLIES. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DEEP MIXED LAYERS MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED WIND
POTENTIAL.
..JEWELL.. 08/29/2026
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