528  
ACUS02 KWNS 031729  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 031728  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1128 AM CST WED MAR 03 2021  
 
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN  
TX PANHANDLE...WESTERN OK...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL OVER PARTS THE  
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY DURING THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL OK DURING  
THE PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST TX DURING THE  
DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY  
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MARGINAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF  
WESTERN OK/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE. SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST IN THE 45-50 DEG F RANGE BENEATH STEEPENING  
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES (AROUND 8-9 DEG C/KM) AS RAPID DYNAMIC  
MID-LEVEL COOLING OCCURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.  
MODELS VARY A BIT REGARDING MOISTURE QUALITY BUT IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE  
250-750 J/KG MUCAPE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE 22Z-03Z PERIOD COUPLED  
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR 25-35 KT. A FEW MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS  
(MULTICELLULAR TO WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURE) MAY BE CAPABLE OF A RISK  
FOR LARGE HAIL BEFORE THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS WHILE MOVING EAST INTO  
CENTRAL OK DURING THE LATE EVENING.  
 
..SMITH.. 03/03/2021  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page