202
ACUS02 KWNS 070558
SWODY2
SPC AC 070557
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT FRI AUG 07 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
..CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS/LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY
AT MID-LEVELS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A JET STREAK
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, A
MOIST AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND EASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
MISSOURI. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE MOIST AXIS BY AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP CONVECTION
ISOLATED. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COULD BE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA, WHERE SOME
MODELS FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE
EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A MOISTURE GRADIENT
IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE
35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG AND NEAR THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN NORTHERN MISSOURI.
..BROYLES.. 08/07/2026
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