554
ACUS02 KWNS 271722
SWODY2
SPC AC 271720
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
..SYNOPSIS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BEHIND A
DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE EAST. A SECOND TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
ROCKIES ENCOURAGING LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS, MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT NORTHWARD WITH A 40-60 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. LIFT FROM
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE LEE LOW, STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
TRANSPORT MIDDLING SURFACE MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTH TX INTO SOUTHERN OK AHEAD OF THE SURGING COLD FRONT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE, A PERSISTENT SURFACE
STABLE LAYER IS LIKELY TO PREVENT SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWARD MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES (H5 TEMPS -24C) BENEATH THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED BUOYANCY DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY,
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE BOARDER WARM ADVECTION BAND. WHILE GENERALLY WEAK, (~250-500
J/KG MUCAPE) SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG FLOW ALOFT COULD
SUPPORT AN OCCASIONAL STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL FROM
NORTHEAST TX INTO EASTERN OK AND THE OZARKS. BUT, GIVEN THE LIMITED
THERMODYNAMICS, A SUSTAINED SEVERE RISK APPEARS UNLIKELY.
..LYONS.. 11/27/2025
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