223
ACUS02 KWNS 271658
SWODY2
SPC AC 271656
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...AND FROM NORTH GEORGIA TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA, AND THE DAKOTAS.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN ON FRIDAY GIVEN UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE, THOUGH THE UPPER
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPIFY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
CAPPING MAY LARGELY LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST SD
DURING THE EVENING. SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT 60S DEWPOINT ACROSS EASTERN NE INTO MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ATOP THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER, AND
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED. CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR. SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES WITH
ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ARE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS,
SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO COULD OCCUR PRIOR TO
STRONGER NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION.
A 40 KT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS NE INTO SD. THIS COULD SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION
SPREADING EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH, WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF HAIL,
AND POSSIBLY SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS IF CLUSTERING/UPSCALE GROWTH CAN
OCCUR.
..NORTH GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG/EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH. STRONGER HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD
POSE A RISK FOR SPORADIC WET MICROBURSTS WITHIN A HIGH PW
ENVIRONMENT.
..MAINE
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AROUND 30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER, POOR LAPSE RATES AND COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. ADDITIONALLY, FLOW BELOW
700 MB WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST. WHILE GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL
COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LOW.
..INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AROUND 30-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB WILL OVERSPREAD
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MIGRATES FROM
NV INTO WY. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK, MODULATED BY
MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER HEATING REMAINING CONFINED
TO AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL STILL OCCUR,
AND COULD PROMOTE SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, BUT
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY.
..LEITMAN.. 08/27/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page