592
ACUS02 KWNS 121719
SWODY2
SPC AC 121717
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF
EASTERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...
..SUMMARY
A FEW STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FAR NORTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CONUS ON
MONDAY. STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE PRESENT IN
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
CAROLINAS.
..GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ON MONDAY. SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. EVEN SO, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BRING SUBTLE LIFT/FLOW
ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION
WILL BE LOW. THAT SAID, AROUND 20 KT OF SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY,
LARGE PWAT VALUES, AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STORMS WILL PROMOTE A RISK
OF WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
..SOUTHWEST MONTANA
MODEL TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S F AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A
RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS.
..ARIZONA
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER ON MONDAY ON ACCOUNT OF THE
IMPACTS OF WEEKEND CONVECTION. COUPLED WITH WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS, IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE OFF OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WHERE GREATER HEATING CAN OCCUR, BUT
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SPATIALLY LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS.
..WENDT.. 07/12/2026
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