992
ACUS02 KWNS 231745
SWODY2
SPC AC 231744
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
..NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS
A LOW-LATITUDE/SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY PRIMARILY OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND ARIZONA. RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING A MOIST AIR MASS, WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED
BY GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2
KM AGL.
INITIAL STORM INTENSIFICATION INCLUDING SOME SEVERE RISK COULD OCCUR
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO, WITH SOMEWHAT LATER DIURNALLY AIDED DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. VERTICALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILES, INCREASING IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT,
WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS,
INCLUDING SOME MODEST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE ATTRIBUTABLE TO
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE REGIONALLY, WITH LARGER HAIL MAGNITUDES MORE PROBABLE IN
THE GREATER INSTABILITY RESERVOIR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS. SOME TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST AS WELL GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED WIND PROFILES AND RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND SOMEWHAT FAST STORM MOTIONS (35+ KT OR SO)
COULD ALSO YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..GUYER.. 10/23/2026
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