854
ACUS02 KWNS 151714
SWODY2
SPC AC 151713
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY....
..SUMMARY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS
AND PERHAPS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY ON MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THEREFORE, A SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST ON MONDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW
AND RESULT IN A VERY STRONG SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. MOST CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES STRENGTHENING CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
AND SOME LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE MAY SUPPORT SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR A QLCS TORNADO OR TWO. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY.
SOME AREAS WITHIN THE LINE MAY NOT EVEN PRODUCE LIGHTNING, BUT GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE LINE AND THE STRONG WIND PROFILE, A
MARGINAL RISK IS WARRANTED.
..CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION SURGE, COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND PERHAPS SOME HEATING IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY MAY RESULT IN A
BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY FAVOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. THIS THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO A NARROW AREA, BUT HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 21-22Z SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY,
MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND AROUND 200 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH. THE 2%
TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS LIMITED DURATION
THREAT.
..BENTLEY.. 02/15/2026
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