191
ACUS02 KWNS 110457
SWODY2
SPC AC 110455
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL DEVELOP SOUTH TO
THE SIERRA NEVADA, WHILE AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE BASAL PORTION THAT FEATURE FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA
THROUGH THE LOWER-CO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT BASIN. DOWNSTREAM FROM
THOSE DEVELOPMENTS, A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
TRANSLATE FROM THE NORTHERN OR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND NEIGHBORING UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL NE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHERN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL WI MONDAY NIGHT.
..UPPER MIDWEST
A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
MONDAY, ATOP A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER, YIELDING A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING CYCLONE. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING WITHIN A ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
PRECEDING THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THAT CONVECTIVE REGIME IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF MN AND WI LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
NIGHT, AMIDST A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MUCAPE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WHILE A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL APPROACHING ONE
INCH APPEAR POSSIBLE, LARGER SIZES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR.
..LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT BASIN
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
EXPECTED TO FOSTER AN AREAL INCREASE IN LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL;
HOWEVER, IN AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN SUFFICIENTLY
STEEPEN, THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD YIELD A
FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 58 MPH. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
..MEAD.. 10/11/2026
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