387
ACUS02 KWNS 010527
SWODY2
SPC AC 010525
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF GEORGIA...AND OVER A
PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF GEORGIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK EXISTS ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS. THAT FEATURE WILL BE LOOSELY LINKED TO A
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN ON INTO QC. ELSEWHERE,
AN INTENSE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM AB INTO SK WITH AN ATTENDING
BELT OF 50-70 KT WINDS AT 500 MB SPREADING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WITH A TRAILING WIND SHIFT/WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FARTHER NORTHWEST, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
..UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITHIN THE
WARM-CONVEYOR AIR STREAM PRECEDING THE OH VALLEY LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF A MOIST AND AT LEAST MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
IN SOME AREAS. WHERE CLOUD BREAKS CAN OCCUR, INCREASED DAYTIME
HEATING WILL SUPPORT CORRIDORS OF MLCAPE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG.
MORE INTENSE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
AREAS OF GREATER INSTABILITY, FROM NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO GA.
THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT IS FORECAST NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW, WHERE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE, GIVEN
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION. ANOTHER AREA OF POTENTIAL INTEREST IS
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WHILE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE
WINDS COMBINED WITH A BROADENING AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HOWEVER, A
BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE
PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRENCE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 2%.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED,
THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO YIELD
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG. DESPITE PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
90S TO AROUND 100, AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO CAPPING AT THE BASE OF AN EML AND THE ABSENCE OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT. SOME OF THE 00Z MODELS INDICATE A GREATER POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT (MAINLY ELEVATED) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE CAP IS GRADUALLY ERODED BY INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SUGGESTS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE LEVEL 1/MARGINAL RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE.
..MEAD.. 08/01/2026
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