439
ACUS02 KWNS 141727
SWODY2
SPC AC 141725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY,
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND CAROLINAS.
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BROADEN AND EXPAND WESTWARD ON
SATURDAY. MODEST TO REGIONALLY MODERATE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BE THE GENERAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF MCV
FEATURES MOVING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE.
..MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
AN MCV IS FORECAST TO BE IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE MCV AND ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV IS MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING, BUT THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WILL NOT NEED MUCH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE MCV. STORMS MAY ONLY BE ORGANIZED FOR SHORT PERIODS GIVEN
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
TROPOSPHERE.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
ANOTHER MCV IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO IOWA/MISSOURI. GIVEN THE IMPACTS OF THE PRECEDING MCV ON
FRIDAY, IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION, AND THEREFORE
STORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR. SHOULD AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP, THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MCV
FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. LATER IN THE EVENING,
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
FARTHER WEST, FLOW ALOFT IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE, CONTINUED MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS BY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOL, BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AROUND
35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR THE TERRAIN WILL SUPPORT TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
STORM/OUTFLOW INTERACTION IS LIKELY WITH A FEW CLUSTERS PROPAGATING
EASTWARD WITH TIME.
..SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONT
STRONG HEATING OF AT LEAST LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL PROMOTE STRONG
INSTABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK TO MODEST FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THOUGH STORMS MAY NOT BE VERY ORGANIZED, SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITHIN THE TERRAIN MAY MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. ONE
OR MORE CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP LEADING TO LOCALIZED CORRIDORS OF WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
..CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA
A COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT. MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP,
ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAINS TOO LIMITED FOR PROBABILITIES.
..NORTHEAST OREGON INTO CENTRAL IDAHO
WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. MODEST BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY
OCCUR, BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED.
..WENDT.. 08/14/2026
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