489
ACUS02 KWNS 191713
SWODY2
SPC AC 191712
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC, POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE STORMS FROM
NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
..MID-ATLANTIC
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER. STRONG HEATING ALONG/EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM
NORTHERN MD THROUGH CENTRAL VA/NC WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NJ SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA/NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CELLS, PERHAPS BECOMING LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH TIME. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, SUPPORTED FURTHER BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND HIGH PW VALUES. THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
HAIL.
..TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
A SURFACE TOUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NC PIEDMONT INTO
NORTHERN MS/CENTRAL AR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SEASONALLY MOIST AND
HOT AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE, FOSTERING MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK, BUT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS
WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW SO COOLER TEMPERATURE ALOFT, AND ISOLATED HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY STRONG STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MS AND THE TN
VALLEY.
FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AL, SOUTHWEST GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE VICINITY, ISOLATED CELLS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT, BUT EVEN WEAKER DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS FORECAST.
NEVERTHELESS, SPORADIC WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, POSING A
RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
..CENTRAL PLAINS TO MN/WI
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MN TOWARD THE U.P. OF MI. AS THIS OCCURS, A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY, MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
(GENERALLY LOW TO MAYBE MID-60S F DEWPOINTS). SUPERCELL WIND
PROFILES ARE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WITH ELONGATED/STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS NOTED ABOVE 2-3 KM. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, POSING A RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO
NE, A NARROW CORRIDOR MAY EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL (GREATER THAN 2
INCH DIAMETER) GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMPARED TO
FURTHER NORTH.
..AZ
EASTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY.
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS
AMID THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL PROMOTE MLCAPE
AROUND 1000-1250 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE AND PROPAGATE WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AZ DURING THE EVENING.
..LEITMAN.. 08/19/2026
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