673
ACUS02 KWNS 271724
SWODY2
SPC AC 271722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
VALID 281200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
OREGON AND NEVADA AS WELL AS OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE FOCUSED
IN PROXIMITY TO A PAIR OF EMBEDDED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST. AT THE SURFACE,
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS OK AND
THE OZARK PLATEAU LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK
ASCENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
..FLORIDA
MID-MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A COLD FRONT DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, GRADUAL
FRONTOLYSIS IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE MOIST AIR MASS
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL FL, WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. AN UPPER WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL OVERSPREAD THE FL PENINSULA AROUND PEAK HEATING
SATURDAY. MODEST BROAD-SCALE ASCENT WITHIN A MOIST, WEAKLY CAPPED,
AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE (1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE) AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 30-40 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW
ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR ADEQUATE HODOGRAPH
ELONGATION FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. DIMINISHING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL STORM COVERAGE, BUT MOST 12Z CAMS
AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOW A CONSISTENT QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN FL COAST WHERE LOCALIZED SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE/ASCENT
MAY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT STATES
A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS NOTED IN MORNING WATER-VAPOR
IMAGERY WELL OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST APPROACHING THE CREST OF THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INLAND ACROSS
NORTHERN CA BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING, REACHING THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN BY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
WILL SUPPORT DEEP MOISTENING OF PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS,
COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT,
WILL SUPPORT FAVORABLE BUOYANCY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE NEAR/BELOW 250
J/KG, BUT POCKETS OF HIGHER BUOYANCY (CLOSER TO 500 J/KG) APPEAR
POSSIBLE BASED ON RECENT CAMS, WHICH MAY SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
...OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE TEXARKANA REGION
WILL MIGRATE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF
THE ONGOING FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF/SOUTHEAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH, COUPLED WITH
MODEST LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS, WILL PROMOTE MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION
ANTICIPATED LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS BUOYANCY PROFILES
WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT INTENSE CONVECTION.
..MOORE.. 02/27/2026
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