510
ACUS02 KWNS 021725
SWODY2
SPC AC 021724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
..SUMMARY
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD CYCLONE ACROSS THE MIDWEST/EAST WILL REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH DEPARTING THE EAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI AND MID-MISSOURI VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE, WEAK MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN SURFACE HIGH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI/ILLINOIS AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN POINT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. THE TYPICALLY MOIST NAM STILL SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 50S F IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, CURRENT SURFACE/SOUNDING
OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWS POOR MOISTURE QUALITY AS FAR SOUTH AS
CENTRAL TEXAS. MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST TO BEING OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY. WITH ONLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED, THE PATTERN SIMPLY
DOES NOT SUGGEST ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN. IT SEEMS MORE PROBABLE THAT
MOISTURE THAT DOES ADVANCE NORTHWARD WILL BE SHALLOW AND HAVE A
TENDENCY TO MIX OUT DURING THE DAY. ALL THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BE RATHER COLD (AROUND -20 C AT 500 MB). EVEN UPPER 40S F
DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN AROUND 1000 TO PERHAPS 1500 J/KG MLCAPE.
MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND AID FROM A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A POTENT MID-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO 50-60 KT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DECREASING TO
NEAR 40 KT IN WESTERN MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN RELATIVELY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET GIVEN THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER.
..NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST OREGON
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COOL IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST.
FILTERED SURFACE HEATING COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO
DEVELOP. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE QUITE WEAK WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STORMS THAT ARE ONLY
STRONG BRIEFLY. THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW.
..WENDT.. 05/02/2026
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