827
ACUS02 KWNS 160700
SWODY2
SPC AC 160658
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPSTREAM
OF THIS SHORTWAVE, A STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS SURFACE LOW, SEASONABLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM TX/LA INTO PARTS OF OK/AR/MO.
...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS AND OH
VALLEYS...
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF
TX INTO EASTERN OK. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY LITTLE SIGNAL FOR DIURNAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR, LIKELY DUE TO LINGERING CAPPING
AND GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT (WITH STRONGER ASCENT
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH).
FARTHER NORTH, ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN A
LOW-LEVEL WARM-ADVECTION REGIME FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE
MID MS AND OH VALLEYS, MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. GUIDANCE VARIES SOMEWHAT REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF MUCAPE,
THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW COULD SUPPORT SOME MODEST
STORM ORGANIZATION. SMALL TO NEAR-SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION AND ROBUST ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN THIS REGIME,
THEN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
..DEAN.. 11/16/2025
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