292  
ACUS02 KWNS 100630  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 100628  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1228 AM CST MON FEB 10 2025  
 
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST  
 
   
..SUMMARY  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER  
IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER MUCH OF THE  
WEST ON TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE  
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE ARCING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS  
GULF COAST AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
   
..SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
 
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST OF  
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OCCURRING ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.  
THIS SHOULD REINFORCE THE FRONT, THOUGH SOME MODEST NORTHWARD  
PROGRESSION OF WARMER, MOIST AIR MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE COASTAL PLAIN  
REGIONS. POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN  
SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SABINE VALLEY VICINITY APPEARS LOW AS THE LOW-LEVEL  
JET WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND MID-LEVEL ASCENT  
WILL BE WEAK. FURTHERMORE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POOR LAPSE  
RATES IN THE COLUMN AND WARM LAYERS THAT WILL INHIBIT UPDRAFT  
INTENSITY. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU  
INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS AS MID-LEVEL FORCING AND 850 MB WARM  
ADVECTION INCREASES. AGAIN, THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ON THE  
COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS COULD  
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO  
ISOLATED/UNCERTAIN FOR UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES.  
 
..WENDT.. 02/10/2025  
 
 
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