212
ACUS02 KWNS 240715
SWODY2
SPC AC 240713
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST...
CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY RISK.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED LARGER-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL US IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND
ABSORBS SEVERAL SMALLER PERTURBATIONS EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES AND
WESTERN CONUS. THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES
WILL MOVE FROM THE SABINE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST,
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. AMPLIFICATION OF THE OVERALL TROUGH AND SOUTHWESTERLY
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST MODIFICATION INLAND OF
A REMNANT GULF AIR MASS SOUTH OF A LARGE ARCTIC INTRUSION/COLD AIR
DAMMING. WEAK BUOYANCY AND STRONG FORCING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
..EASTERN GULF COAST STATES
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY FIRST OVER SOUTHERN
LA AND MS AS THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHWARD. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT A BAND OF INITIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF
EAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA AND MS GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD. WITH
TIME, THESE STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING MODIFIED
WARM SECTOR AS THE COLD FRONT IMPINGES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE DAY.
WEAK DESTABILIZATION PEAKING AROUND 500-750 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL
OVERLAP WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION OF THE ONGOING STORMS WHERE
THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS CAN DESTABILIZE. LIKELY LINEAR IN NATURE
OWING TO THE STRONG FRONTAL FORCING, A FEW STRONGER SEGMENTS APPEAR
PLAUSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING GUSTS WOULD BE PRIMARY RISK GIVEN 50-70 KT FLOW IN
THE LOWEST 1-3 KM AGL. A BRIEF QLCS TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT
LESS CERTAIN AS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD GRADUALLY VEERS THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE MAIN ASCENT LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTH.
..LYONS.. 01/24/2026
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