464
ACUS02 KWNS 011727
SWODY2
SPC AC 011725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF GEORGIA...AND OVER A
PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF GEORGIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK EXISTS ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
WEAK TROUGHING WILL BRING MODEST FLOW AND BROAD ASCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN US. ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AS A MORE PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES.
AT THE SURFACE, AN OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GULF STATES. A
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
..UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE REGION OF THE EASTWARD SAGGING
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS. BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER BEHIND THE MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 25-35 KTS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND WHERE BETTER HEATING CAN OCCUR.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS POTIONS OF NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WITHIN THIS REGION, THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER, WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND STRONG CAPPING AT THE BASE OF THE EML DURING THE DAYTIME
HEATING PERIOD MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MID-LEVEL COOLING AND
ASCENT FROM THE UPPER WAVE MOVES IN LATE. NONETHELESS, SHOULD A CELL
OR TWO DEVELOP THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE D2 PERIOD, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
..THORNTON.. 08/01/2026
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