920
ACUS02 KWNS 011713
SWODY2
SPC AC 011712
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
ON SATURDAY. THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL BE INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE
PERIOD, PRIMARILY NORTH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT, UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE.
..SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE INTENSITY OF
THIS EARLY ACTIVITY IS NOT CERTAIN, THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
A HIGHLY SHEARED (55-65 KT EFFECTIVE) ENVIRONMENT. AN INITIAL WARM
LAYER AROUND 700 MB MAY LIMIT OVERALL INTENSITY BEFORE MODEST
COOLING ALOFT OCCURS MID/LATE MORNING. AT LEAST FILTERED HEATING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MLCAPE BY THE AFTERNOON
OF 1000-1500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE. WITH SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE COLD
FRONT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO UNDERCUT SOME OF THE
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, ONE OR MORE ORGANIZING LINEAR SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS
COULD STILL OCCUR ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WIND DAMAGE WOULD
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL IS STILL
A POSSIBILITY, BUT WOULD BE SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON A DISCRETE STORM
MODE. THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS LESS CERTAIN. THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WOULD MEAN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WOULD BE
OUT OF PHASE WITH THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. WHILE THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS LOW, THERE IS A NARROW
ZONE IN NORTH FLORIDA WHERE MARGINALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION MAY FAVORABLY ALIGN MID/LATE MORNING.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY/LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS
IS TOO HIGH FOR AN INCREASE IN TORNADO PROBABILITIES.
..WENDT.. 05/01/2026
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