570
ACUS02 KWNS 260547
SWODY2
SPC AC 260545
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED.
..SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT NOTED IN 05 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AROUND 12 UTC FRIDAY, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH LATE MORNING AS FRONTAL ASCENT
SHIFTS SOUTH INTO AN AIR MASS WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HEATING OF A SEASONALLY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA (MID 50S DEWPOINTS) WILL LIKELY YIELD A POCKET OF
MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 100-300 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE 30-40 KNOT
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH PEAK HEATING, THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE TYPICALLY AGGRESSIVE
RRFS, IS THAT BUOYANCY PROFILES WILL REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO SUPPORT
INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND A MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.
..MOORE.. 03/26/2026
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