452
ACUS02 KWNS 140553
SWODY2
SPC AC 140551
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY,
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND CAROLINAS.
..OHIO VALLEY
AN MCV IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN
IA/NORTHERN IL SATURDAY MORNING. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI TOWARD WV WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW/MCV SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MI TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE EVENING. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE,
AND AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP.
SPREAD AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE REGARDING THESE
SURFACE FEATURES AND CORRIDORS OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION.
NEVERTHELESS, STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW/MCV WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION. DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MCV AND SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARD
WV/EASTERN KY.
..VA/CAROLINAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST, ESPECIALLY WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO GA/FL, BUT STRONG HEATING COULD SUPPORT
SPORADIC DOWNBURSTS WITHIN THE HIGH-PW ENVIRONMENT. IF SUFFICIENT
CLUSTERING OCCURS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, A FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER
COULD MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS, PRODUCING GREATER RISK
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MO VALLEY
ANOTHER MCV IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER KS/NE, MOVING TOWARD THE
MID-MO VALLEY. DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN AS THIS
AIRMASS WILL HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BY THE DOWNSTREAM MCV MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.
AS CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN CO AND VICINITY, STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BUT FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST TRANSIENT ORGANIZED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS NE
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT, MAINLY POSING A RISK FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS.
..LEITMAN.. 08/14/2026
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