132
ACUS02 KWNS 071733
SWODY2
SPC AC 071731
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT ON SATURDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL JET INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME CONVECTION MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE, THOUGH STORM COVERAGE IS NOT CLEAR.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THAT ACTIVITY, SOME RISK FOR SEVERE
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. STORM COVERAGE WILL LARGELY
DICTATE HOW LONG EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY CAN PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL WOULD HAVE TO EVOLVE IN ORDER TO ALLOW
CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
DECREASING INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON IS FAR FROM CERTAIN GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING THAT WILL EXIST. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
WEAK AS WELL. SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN
MINNESOTA. THE MARGINAL HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO THESE AREAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL HAIL/WIND THREAT.
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
BE FOCUSED WITHIN THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS THIS OCCURS. HOWEVER, THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY NOT FORM UNTIL AROUND 06Z. THIS REDUCES
CONFIDENCE IN HOW SEVERE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE, PARTICULARLY IN TERMS
OF SEVERE WIND. AGAIN, THE MARGINAL WAS EXPANDED TO THE NORTH/EAST
TO ENCOMPASS THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE EVEN WITH ELEVATED STORMS GIVEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY
STILL DEVELOP, BUT THIS IS CONDITIONAL ON ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL
DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.
..MID-ATLANTIC
A MODEST, LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLY TIMED
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY
STRONG, BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS
AND CLUSTERS. STORM COVERAGE IS NOT CERTAIN GIVEN THE VEERED,
DEEP-LAYER FLOW, BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCALLY GREATER
STORM COVERAGE FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
ADJACENT NEW JERSEY. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
..ARIZONA
LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN THE LOWER DESERT
AREAS. STRONG HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MOST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONE OR MORE
CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP ON THE MOGOLLON RIM AND MOVE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..WENDT.. 08/07/2026
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