147
ACUS02 KWNS 161743
SWODY2
SPC AC 161741
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES, POSSIBLY STRONG, VERY LARGE
HAIL, AND SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY, STRENGTHENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO
UPPER MS VALLEY. CONTINUOUS HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS REGION, WHERE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE RELATIVELY COOL.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS IA AND WI,
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS AND
NORTHWEST OK. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT ACROSS IA AND INTO WI
DURING THE DAY, WITH AN INFLUX OF MID 60S F DEWPOINTS. GIVEN THE
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT, THIS WILL CREATE A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE DURING THE
EVENING AS STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS, AND SHOULD EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM
LOWER MI INTO CENTRAL TX BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT, AMPLE SHEAR, AND AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT CORRIDORS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS,
INCLUDING ALL MODES OF SEVERE.
..FROM IA INTO WI AND NORTHWEST IL
STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM IA INTO SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHWEST IL. WHILE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 8.5 C/KM,
ALONG WITH 200-300 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
NEAR THE WARM FRONT. WHILE AN EVENTUAL SQUALL LINE MAY TAKE SHAPE
LATE IN THE DAY, SCATTERED SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY AFTER ABOUT 19Z
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AND AS DEWPOINTS RISE RAPIDLY. AS SUCH,
CONDITIONAL TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED FURTHER TO
INDICATE STRONGER TORNADO POTENTIAL.
CELLS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE AS THE FRONT PUSHED EAST, WITH
DAMAGING BOWING STRUCTURES EXPECTED, POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS LAKE
MI. THE SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS FAR EAST AS IN AND
LOWER MI LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE.
..OK/KS/MO
A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL, WIND, AND SEVERAL
TORNADOES EXPECTED. AN IMPRESSIVE COMBINATION OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR/WIND FIELDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL EXIST, AND WHILE
THE FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LINEAR, SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION AND
LIKELY RIGHTWARD-PROPAGATION OF THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS WILL SUPPORT
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL INITIALLY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A LINEAR MCS, WITH CORRIDORS OF
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND CONTINUED LARGE HAIL RISK EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF MO AND INTO NORTHERN OK THROUGH THE EVENING.
..JEWELL.. 04/16/2026
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