224
ACUS02 KWNS 071747
SWODY2
SPC AC 071746
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT MON SEP 07 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
..CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES, ENHANCED MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
AT THE SURFACE, A LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
ONTARIO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A
MOIST WARM-SECTOR WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. MOST CAM GUIDANCE DEPICTS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN, NEAR THE NOSE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS EARLY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY POSE AN INITIAL
RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
FURTHER SOUTH, SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS IOWA, EASTERN NEBRASKA,
AND POTENTIALLY NORTHERN KANSAS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROGRESSIVELY
LESSEN WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT BUT STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
STALLING BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER. INITIAL CELLS WILL LIKELY HAVE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH A GREATER
DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER TUESDAY EVENING.
..BENTLEY.. 09/07/2026
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