019
ACUS02 KWNS 171710
SWODY2
SPC AC 171708
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PARTS
OF THE WEST COAST, LOWER OHIO/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGIONS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..SYNOPSIS
A PAIR OF SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL,
WEAKER PERTURBATION WILL MOVE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN LOWER MICHIGAN
INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
FARTHER WEST, A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER
COLORADO VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, GENERAL TROUGHING WILL IN THE WEST.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL FOSTER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES
MAY ALSO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND COOL/COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY QUITE SPARSE.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND SHIFT INTO EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI BY THURSDAY
MORNING. MID-LEVEL ASCENT AND WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO CONFLUENCE INTO PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FROM BOTH GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL CAM GUIDANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO CONFLUENCE. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST, CAPPING MAY
PREVAIL GIVEN MORE NEBULOUS FORCING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH ANY OF THE ACTIVITY IN THESE REGIONS.
..WENDT.. 02/17/2026
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