894
ACUS02 KWNS 031724
SWODY2
SPC AC 031722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...AND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS......
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, SOUTH-CENTRAL
COLORADO, AND NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH
STRONGER STORMS IN THE CAROLINAS.
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING ENHANCED WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO UPPER MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN US, WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA
INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FOR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BUILD ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. A DEEPLY MIXED AND HOT AIR MASS
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER CLUSTERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY WILL OVERLAP WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR NEAR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE IN THE
REGION WHERE A SURFACE FRONT INTERSECTS THE TERRAIN WITHIN A FAVORED
UPSLOPE REGION. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..CAROLINAS
A VORT MAX WILL ROTATE THROUGH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA, PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
FORCING FOR ASCENT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AMID A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DEEP
LAYER FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK BUT STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MOIST PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS.
..MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY, WHICH
MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK DURING THE DAYTIME BEFORE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WITHIN A REGION OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. NONETHELESS, STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT. A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
..THORNTON.. 08/03/2026
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