058
ACUS02 KWNS 130601
SWODY2
SPC AC 130559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND
MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY COVERING PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
BUILDING RIDGE, MULTIPLE MCVS MAY TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE, HELPING TO FOCUS STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS.
..OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY A REMNANT MCS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. GUIDANCE VARIES REGARDING
THE ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY OF THIS MORNING CONVECTION, AND WHETHER
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED MCV. IN GENERAL, AN ISOLATED
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THE MORNING CONVECTION BEFORE IT
WEAKENS, WITH SOME REJUVENATION OF WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL POSSIBLE
INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NC, IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. SOME CLUSTERING AND LOCALLY GREATER
WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ACROSS SOME PART OF THE REGION, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH REGARDING THE DETAILS.
THE 12/00Z NAM IS AN AGGRESSIVE OUTLIER, DEPICTING A STRONG MCV
APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND
SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PARTICULAR
SCENARIO IS LOW, SOME EXPANSION WAS MADE TO THE MARGINAL RISK ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NC, TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
MOST FAVORED CORRIDOR.
..EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING FROM
EASTERN NE INTO PARTS OF IA/IL AND VICINITY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS CONVECTION, THOUGH EARLY-DAY
STORMS MAY TEND TO DIMINISH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKENING
WARM-ADVECTION REGIME.
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION, MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR/NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW-INFLUENCED FRONTAL
ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON, AIDED BY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES NEAR/NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SRH, THOUGH MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODEST
AT BEST AND MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH HEIGHT.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN MCV MAY EMERGE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THOUGH THE TIMING AND TRAJECTORY OF SUCH A
FEATURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ANY MCV-RELATED UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
WOULD RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SRH COULD SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. THE WEAK TO
MODEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A CLUSTER MODE, POTENTIALLY INCREASING WIND-DAMAGE
POTENTIAL.
..CO FRONT RANGE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LOW-LEVEL EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN PROMOTE MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION AND SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE CO FRONT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL
GENERALLY BE WEAK TO MODEST, BUT THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS.
FARTHER SOUTH/EAST, HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITHIN A HOT AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT. LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THESE HIGH-BASED
STORMS.
FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, EXPANDING OUTFLOW AND AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW FOR ONE OR MORE UPSCALE-GROWING
CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KS (AND PERHAPS
SOUTHWEST NE). THE INTENSITY AND LONGEVITY OF ANY SUCH CLUSTERS
COULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, BUT SOME THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
..DEAN.. 08/13/2026
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