521
ACUS02 KWNS 191729
SWODY2
SPC AC 191727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL,
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST.
..SYNOPSIS
LOW AMPLITUDE BUT PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CONUS DAY2/FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 100+ KT
MID-LEVEL JET OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFY AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILD TO THE SOUTH. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE, INITIALLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY
SATURDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SURGES EASTWARD TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST. TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW AND
EVENTUAL STALL, EAST TO WEST OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM DAY1/THURSDAY EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC VICINITY. HOWEVER, SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE POTENTIAL. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES.
..NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES.
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AS WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING EASTERN SHORTWAVE. WITH WEAK TO NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS,
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MUTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL SUPPORT MOISTENING SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S F.
LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER FRIDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE THE PRIMARY ASCENT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST US SHORTWAVE SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE COOL SIDE, SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN LA, MS, AL INTO
NORTHERN GA AND FAR SOUTHERN TN. WHILE NOT OVERLY LARGE, MUCAPE ~
500 J/KG AMID STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (50+ KT) MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
INSTANCES OF HAIL WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY.
..UPPER OH VALLEY
EAST OF THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW, MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IS
EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A NARROW PLUME OF RELATIVELY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS (40S AND 50S F) AHEAD OF THE SURGING FRONT COULD SUPPORT
SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN OH, SOUTHWEST NY AND WESTERN PA.
CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY BUOYANCY. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE STRONG ASCENT, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT. WITH 100+ KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW, SPORADIC DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SHOULD ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DEVELOP. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR FARTHER EAST INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER WIND GUST POTENTIAL LATER
FRIDAY.
..LYONS.. 02/19/2026
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