309
ACUS02 KWNS 221724
SWODY2
SPC AC 221722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY. LARGE HAIL TO VERY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
..SYNOPSIS
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
MORNING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH A BELT OF 50-60 KT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS. A SECONDARY, LOWER-LATITUDE
DISTURBANCE WILL ADVANCE INTO WESTERN KS AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, ALONG WITH A MORE ZONAL
MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. AT THE SURFACE, THE PRIMARY CYCLONE
ATTENDANT TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
OCCLUSION OVER SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA, WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR PSEUDO-DRYLINE WILL PRECEDE THE COLD
FRONT, EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MN THROUGH WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE
INTO CENTRAL KS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KS OR NORTHWEST
OK THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
LOWER-LATITUDE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE. A MORE CLASSIC DRYLINE
WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THAT LOW THROUGH WESTERN OK INTO WESTERN
NORTH TX DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
...UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...
A BROAD, NOCTURNAL, LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT (WED. NIGHT), ENHANCING THE POLEWARD FLUX OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A RESIDUAL EML PLUME
RESIDING ACROSS THE SAME REGION. THE MOISTURE INCREASE BENEATH A
CAPPING INVERSION AT THE BASE OF THE EML MAY RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR
AIR MASS. WHERE CLOUD BREAKS OCCUR, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE TO APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MN TO AS HIGH AS 2000-3000+ J/KG IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/DRYLINE COUPLED WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR
ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NE AND WESTERN
IA, INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST KS. WHILE THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF THE
INITIATING BOUNDARY, A CORRIDOR OF 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WILL OVERLIE THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE WARM SECTOR, SUPPORTING
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL STORM MODE WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES. SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI, WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA, SOUTHEAST NE,
NORTHEAST KS, AND NORTHWEST MO. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL
INCREASE WITH THAT MODE CHANGE, WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR A FEW
TORNADOES.
THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HERE, A FEW INTENSE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE-WEATHER HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE,
AND A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO A LEVEL 3/ENHANCED RISK MAY BE REQUIRED
IN SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.
..OK INTO NORTH TX
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG) IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, STRONG CAPPING AT THE BASE OF THE EML
CASTS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER STORMS CAN DEVELOP. WHILE
THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS KS, SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN OK. OTHERWISE, STRONG
HEATING TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND RESULTANT DEEPENING
CIRCULATIONS ALONG IT WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM RESPONSIBLE FOR
ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.
ON THE CONDITION THAT ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED,
THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
..MEAD.. 04/22/2026
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