151
ACUS02 KWNS 171708
SWODY2
SPC AC 171706
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE, RIDGING
WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH
MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL FEATURES WILL BEGIN
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING A
STALLED, SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z.
..LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITHIN A REGION OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET. SMALL HAIL
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS MORNING ACTIVITY.
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY. THIS MAY RESULT IN
A ZONE OF SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY AMID
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A
FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHERE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MOST
LIKELY, SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST GIVEN FAVORABLE STREAMWISE
VORTICITY IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE HODOGRAPH. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT LIMITED OVERALL.
AFTER 00Z, A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT
FROM THE WEST SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
RATHER QUICKLY. IF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING LINE, SOME THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY, BUT EVEN THIS THREAT SHOULD CEASE BY
03-04Z.
..BENTLEY.. 11/17/2025
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