084  
ACUS02 KWNS 071731  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 071729  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1229 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2022  
 
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW ON  
MONDAY.  
   
..LOWER MI INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
 
 
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT  
LAKES TOWARD PARTS OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON MONDAY, AS A TRAILING  
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY THE  
LOWER GREAT LAKES. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF DIURNAL HEATING THAT  
CAN OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION, MODERATE BUOYANCY MAY  
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. DEEP-LAYER  
WILL BE MODEST AT BEST ACROSS LOWER MI, AND EVEN WEAKER FARTHER  
SOUTH, BUT A BELT OF SOMEWHAT ENHANCED FLOW (25-35 KT) IN THE  
850-700 MB LAYER MAY SUPPORT STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND  
DAMAGE, IF SUFFICIENT HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES CAN OCCUR. WIND PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR  
PORTIONS OF THIS REGION, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECOVERY/HEATING CAN  
OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION.  
   
..ARIZONA
 
 
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA,  
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND ALSO POTENTIALLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON  
RIM, AS MODERATE BUOYANCY DEVELOPS WITHIN A SEASONABLY MOIST  
ENVIRONMENT. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF RECOVERY THAT CAN OCCUR IN  
THE WAKE OF CONVECTION ON D1/SUNDAY, A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE  
GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY EVOLVE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW  
TO ADD PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.  
 
..DEAN.. 08/07/2022  
 

 
 
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