824
ACUS02 KWNS 141726
SWODY2
SPC AC 141724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA....
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN GEORGIA, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, INCLUDING POTENTIAL
FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.
..SYNOPSIS
ON SUNDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL MERGE
WITH AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DEEPENING SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH MERGES.
..SOUTHEAST
A LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN ALABAMA. WEAK INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS LINE WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED ROTATION/TORNADO POTENTIAL
WHERE THE GREATER (250 J/KG+) MLCAPE EXISTS. 12Z CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
VARYING STORM MODE SOLUTIONS, WITH SOME INDICATION OF THE LINE
BECOMING MORE BROKEN THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS
IT MORE ORGANIZED. GIVEN THE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND A PERSISTENT 40-50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET, EXPECT THE LINE TO REMAIN
MORE ORGANIZED SUNDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG THIS
LINE. A STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OVERLAP.
12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THEREFORE, GIVEN AT LEAST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, HAVE EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE CONDITIONAL TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN ALABAMA INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AS MLCAPE
AROUND 500 TO 750 J/KG DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BY THIS
TIME. THEREFORE, SOME SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
..BENTLEY.. 02/14/2026
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