151
ACUS02 KWNS 250536
SWODY2
SPC AC 250534
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, BEFORE ONE OR TWO ORGANIZING CLUSTERS OF STORMS SPREAD
TOWARD THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
..DISCUSSION
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A REMNANT ELONGATED CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL TEND TO REDEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA DURING THIS PERIOD, WITHIN GENERALLY
WEAKENING LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING EXTENDING ALONG AN AXIS INLAND OF
THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THE HUDSON BAY VICINITY. AT THE SAME
TIME, MID/UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MEXICO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPEARS
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH, AS A NOTABLE SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATION ACCELERATES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/LOWER
COLORADO VALLEY, WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE APPEARS A BIT MORE DISPARITY WITHIN GUIDANCE CONCERNING WHEN
THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY
IMPULSE SPREAD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE EASTERN
COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA VICINITY OF THE HIGH
PLAINS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL EARLY EVENING OR
LATER, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS MAY BE PRECEDED BY A MORE SUBTLE
PERTURBATION ACROSS THE SAME VICINITY, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
MORNING. THE LEAD WAVE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ONE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WITHIN LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY, WHILE THE TRAILING WAVE SUPPORTS THE EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF ANOTHER SURFACE CYCLONE OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS, SEASONABLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR,
INITIALLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, MAY TEND TO
ADVECT IN A CORRIDOR AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. DOWNSTREAM, MODELS
SUGGEST THAT WARM ADVECTION, AT LEAST IN LOWER/MID-LEVELS, WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BECOME FOCUSED IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN KANSAS BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING, NEAR THE NOSE OF
A PLUME OF WARM AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT, INCLUDING CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE, HAS NOT
OFFERED MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLARITY CONCERNING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD. AMONG OTHER ISSUES, THE PLUME OF WARM
ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS MAY PROVE INHIBITIVE TO THE
INITIATION OF STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR,
WHILE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY DAY CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS MAY ALSO IMPACT LATER DAY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
EVEN SO, GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT A CYCLONICALLY CURVED,
50-70+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK WILL NOSE ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS LIKELY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS, WHERE AT LEAST A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY
WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES PROBABLY WILL INCREASE AS CELLS
PROPAGATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY EVENING, IN THE PRESENCE OF
ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET (INCLUDING 40-50+ KT AROUND 850 MB).
TORNADIC POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL MAXIMIZE DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING, BEFORE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES AND GROWS UPSCALE INTO ONE
OR MORE CLUSTERS, IN THE PRESENCE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AIDED BY
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS.
..KERR.. 04/25/2026
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