738
ACUS02 KWNS 261714
SWODY2
SPC AC 261713
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. MORE SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WIND APPEAR POSSIBLE IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC, TENNESSEE VALLEY, CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
..GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
EARLY DAY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN WI INTO NORTHERN IL
MONDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME AT 850 MB WITH
MODEST WESTERLY WINDS AT THAT LEVEL. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR HAIL OR WIND WITH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY.
LATER IN THE DAY, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY
FROM LAKE HURON SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL, AND
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MOISTURE
EASTWARD INTO LOWER MI, IN AND OH. SCATTERED CELLS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT, AIDED BY THE LATE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM EASTERN WI ACROSS
LAKE MI AND INTO LOWER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND SUPERCELL MODE
APPEARS MOST LIKELY GIVEN UP TO 50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. A LOW-LEVEL
JET OUT OF THE WEST AT OVER 30 KT IS EXPECTED OVER IL, WITH
INCREASING SPEEDS INTO IN AND OH INTO THE EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND CONVECTION POSSIBLY MERGES INTO CLUSTERS OR AN
MCS. MODELS VARY ON HOW MUCH STORM COVERAGE WILL EXTEND INTO IL,
WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST WI ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MI
AND INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI, NORTHERN IN AND OH.
DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS ALOFT, THE ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS
FROM MID TO UPPER LEVELS, AND SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
SUGGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR AS
WELL LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH STORM MERGERS
OVERNIGHT AIDING OUTFLOW/SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL. A CATEGORICAL
UPGRADE IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE RISK AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS
PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS I-80. SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO EASTERN LATE
IN THE DAY, WITH CORRIDOR OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTHERN NE AND
NORTHERN KS, EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST CO.
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE, AND AN UNCAPPED
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP. APART FROM THE MONSOONAL REGIME
OVER THE ROCKIES, ADDITIONAL MULTICELLULAR STORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
21Z FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST NE AND NORTHWEST KS. THE HOT
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE MOIST PLUME AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS.
..SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST AZ AS
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD, WITH
PWAT OVER 1.25" AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING STRONG
OUTFLOWS.
..JEWELL.. 07/26/2026
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