416
ACUS02 KWNS 151700
SWODY2
SPC AC 151658
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
UPSTATE NEW YORK AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...
..SUMMARY
A CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
MAY EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE.
..SYNOPSIS
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES INTO NY AND PA ON THURSDAY, PROVIDING INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AND WIND FIELDS. SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA, A SECONDARY WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MO/AR AND TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY 00Z,
WITH COOLING ALOFT.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EAST OUT OF LOWER MI AND
INTO UPSTATE NY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH STRENGTHENING
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINTAINING 50S TO NEAR 60 F DEWPOINTS ACROSS
NY AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER SOUTH, A MOST AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY, WITH 60S F DEWPOINTS FROM AR INTO
SOUTHEAST MO AND WESTERN TN.
..NORTHEAST
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY AND NORTHWEST PA, AND PERHAPS BENEATH
THE UPPER LOW OVER LOWER MI. THE MI ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN HAIL, WHILE
THE NY STORMS DEVELOP INTO A MULTIFACETED THREAT.
LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS ACROSS NY AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND WILL
FAVOR CELLULAR STORM MODE, WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS EXPECTED. HAIL
APPEARS PROBABLE. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY
IF ACTIVITY CAN PRODUCE OUTFLOW AND BECOME MORE LINEAR. A TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AS CELLS INTERACT WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION ZONE/WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE BIT
STRONGER, FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY ACROSS VT AND PERHAPS INTO
SOUTHWEST NH.
..AR/MO/KY/TN
MODELS INSIST THAT EARLY DAY STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM EASTERN AR INTO
WESTERN TN, BUT WITH LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY, LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE
AREA AND SURFACE HEATING OCCURS. ASCENT WILL BE MINIMAL BUT WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A POSSIBLE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAY INSTIGATE ADDITIONAL STORMS FROM NORTHERN AR INTO TN
AND PERHAPS FAR NORTHERN MS/AL. A FEW REPORTS OF HAIL OR WIND WOULD
BE POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL.. 04/15/2026
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