209
ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
..SYNOPSIS
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND BUILD NORTHWARD
INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS. TO THE EAST OF BUILDING RIDGE, A
SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW TOWARD THE LOWER MO VALLEY, AND THEN
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE FRONT ON THURSDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS
LOW. ELEVATED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY A REMNANT MCS MAY BE ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM EASTERN NE INTO PARTS OF IA/NORTHERN
MO. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE EARLY-DAY CONVECTION CAN
PROPAGATE WITHIN THE RICH MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE, SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR/NORTH OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING WITHIN A WARM-ADVECTION REGIME. GENERALLY MODEST AND
FRONT-PARALLEL MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MAY LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS AND
A TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO BE UNDERCUT OR GENERALLY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. HOWEVER, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE MODESTLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITHIN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND
HAIL.
..CO FRONT RANGE INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW, MOIST EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
DESTABILIZATION FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MODEST, BUT
VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR
SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THIS REGION.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
HOT AND WELL-MIXED REGIME NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW.
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION IN THIS
REGIME, BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT LOCALIZED
SEVERE GUSTS.
..NORTHEAST
SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK, AND
GENERALLY MODEST MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE
WILL BE SOME DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND
MORE FAVORABLE BUOYANCY. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..SOUTHEAST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA/SC ON
THURSDAY, WITHIN A VERY WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT. GUIDANCE VARIES
REGARDING THE EXTENT TO WHICH EARLY-DAY CONVECTION AND RELATED
OUTFLOW MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH, AND THE INFLUENCE ANY
SUCH CONVECTION/OUTFLOW WOULD HAVE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVOLUTION LATER IN THE DAY. IN GENERAL, DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK, BUT THE VERY WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT
LOCALIZED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IN AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT IS CURRENTLY LOW, BUT IF TRENDS SUPPORT THE PRESENCE OF ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR REMNANT MCVS EMANATING FROM UPSTREAM, THEN
WIND PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SOME PART OF THIS
REGION.
..GREAT BASIN
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST, BUT FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE ORGANIZATION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT,
BUT WIND PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA AS
WELL.
..DEAN.. 08/12/2026
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