836
ACUS02 KWNS 301658
SWODY2
SPC AC 301656
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, AND TEXAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED,
OPEN WAVE WITH A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA SPREADING FROM KS AND OK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO THE OH AND MID MS
VALLEYS, OZARK PLATEAU, AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THAT BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKE A NORTH-SOUTH-ORIENTED
PACIFIC FRONT, WHICH WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.
..KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, AND TEXAS
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z
THURSDAY FROM EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO INTO CENTRAL TX WITHIN THE
WARM-CONVEYOR AIR STREAM PRECEDING THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM. A
SUBSET OF THOSE STORMS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, FUELED
BY A VERY MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESSING
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. IN AREAS PERIPHERAL TO ACTIVE
CONVECTION WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR, POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE, A COUPLE AREAS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. THE FIRST IS OVER SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK WHERE AN
OVERLAP OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE BUOYANCY IS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MULTICELL AND
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STORM MODES APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
RISK FOR LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
AI-BASED GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME TORNADO THREAT; HOWEVER, THE
SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY TEND TO UNDERCUT SURFACE-BASED
STORMS FORMING ALONG IT, EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL.
THE OTHER AREA IS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WHERE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
HAVE ACCESS TO A RESERVOIR OF GREATER INSTABILITY (MLCAPE UP TO 2500
J/KG). WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK, THE PRESENCE
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
INTENSE WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 09/30/2026
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