711
ACUS02 KWNS 160556
SWODY2
SPC AC 160554
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL
AREAS AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO UPPER
MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
LOW.
..DISCUSSION
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE
WILL WEAKEN WHILE MIGRATING INLAND OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, AN INITIALLY INTENSE OFFSHORE JET IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS
TO THE SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY, TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, CONTRIBUTING TO THE MAINTENANCE OF
AMPLIFIED LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS AND INLAND OF THE U.S.
PACIFIC COAST.
DOWNSTREAM, A BROAD SWATH OF SEASONABLY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND OHIO
VALLEY, AS THE REMNANTS OF PRECEDING INLAND MIGRATING TROUGHING
PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT INITIALLY DEEP SURFACE TROUGHING
ACCOMPANYING THIS PERTURBATION WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN, BUT A
BROAD BELT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW (INCLUDING 40-50
KT AROUND 850 MB) MAY BE MAINTAINED WHILE SPREADING FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS, A PLUME OF RATHER
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, INCLUDING SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER/MID 50S F, MAY ADVECT FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY,
BENEATH A WARM/DRY ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER INITIALLY OVERSPREADING MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER, SUBSTANTIVE GULF BOUNDARY-LAYER
MODIFICATION AND INLAND RETURN FLOW STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND.
..PACIFIC COAST
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
TUESDAY NEARLY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER, THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, INCLUDING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONG MID-LEVEL
COOLING AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING MID/UPPER
JET, WHICH MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR STRONGER CELLS BECOMING CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, PARTICULARLY NEAR COASTAL
AREAS AROUND SAN FRANCISCO BAY AS EARLY AS MIDDAY TUESDAY. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THE LACK OF STEEPER LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES,
AND MORE SUBSTANTIVE CAPE, MAY MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA, BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THIS PERIOD.
..MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST
GIVEN AT LEAST LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, IT STILL APPEARS
THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OTHER MODEL OUTPUT, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
HAIL AND STRONG SURFACE GUSTS STILL APPEARS RATHER LOW, BUT PERHAPS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES FOR THIS PERIOD.
..KERR.. 02/16/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page