534
ACUS02 KWNS 011732
SWODY2
SPC AC 011730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED APR 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR
PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN,
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THESE TORNADOES MAY BECOME FAST MOVING AND STRONG.
..DISCUSSION
WHILE A NOTABLE MID/UPPER HIGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MID-
INTO SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC, FLOW EMANATING FROM THE NORTHERN
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE INTO AND
ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THIS REGIME, A
STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK, SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AND ROCKIES BY EARLY FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY RENEWED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKIES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS, A PRECEDING SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH HAS EMERGED
FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC, LIKELY WILL BE FORCED
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT IT WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT DOES, BUT AN INITIALLY DEEP
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE MAY MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS ITS
CENTER MIGRATES FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN IOWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON, BEFORE UNDERGOING MORE APPRECIABLE WEAKENING
WHILE CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN
VICINITY OVERNIGHT.
..GREAT PLAINS INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ONGOING AT THE OUTSET OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT PLAINS INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. MUCH OF THIS IS LIKELY TO BE WELL IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS, AS THE
MID/UPPER WAVE CONTINUES ACCELERATING ACROSS/NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
DUE TO STILL SOMEWHAT MODEST WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE,
AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE POTENTIAL
NEAR-SURFACE INFLOW ENVIRONMENT, MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION AND RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE INITIAL
PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT SPREADS ACROSS AND
EAST OF THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER, IN ITS WAKE, A CORRIDOR OF BETTER PRE-COLD FRONTAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, BENEATH A PLUME OF A STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DRY SLOT, IS FORECAST TO
CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SUBSTANTIVE
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION. IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY INCLUDE
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ALONG/AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
DRYLINE/CLOSELY TRAILING COLD FRONT, FROM THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IOWA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE MISSOURI OZARKS BY
20-21Z.
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT INTERSECTION,
FORCING FOR ASCENT PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INTENSE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS (BENEATH A 50+ KT
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET). THIS SHOULD, AT LEAST INITIALLY, INCLUDE
DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES,
BEFORE PERHAPS GROWING UPSCALE WHILE DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE TRAILING DRYLINE, BEFORE IT IS
OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT, TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW ON THE
ORDER OF 50+ KTS, FAST STORM MOTIONS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE AXIS
OF DESTABILIZATION COULD SUPPORT A COUPLE OF LONG-LIVED/LONG TRACK
SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES, BEFORE CONVECTION
WEAKENS THURSDAY EVENING.
..KERR.. 04/01/2026
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