160
ACUS02 KWNS 041705
SWODY2
SPC AC 041703
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT FRI SEP 04 2026
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINAS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND VICINITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
..EASTERN CAROLINAS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
CAROLINAS. SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH STRONG INSTABILITY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. FARTHER WEST, DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY RESULT
IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS.
THIS SIGNAL VARIES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE, AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO LOWER PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS AREA, BUT THE GREATER
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FARTHER EAST WHERE MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS
AND AROUND 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR AMID A FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MOSTLY
DAMAGING WINDS.
..OHIO VALLEY
STRONG HEATING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND VICINITY SHOULD PROVIDE
AN UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED AIRMASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION (~20 KNOTS) AND
THEREFORE, EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK. HOWEVER, STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS THESE STORMS CLUSTERING AND TRAVERSING THE APPALACHIANS AND
CONTINUING INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR, AND POTENTIAL FOR LESSER INSTABILITY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS CASTS SIGNIFICANT
DOUBT ON THIS POTENTIAL.
..CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A WARM-AIR
ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND BACKS AND THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING.
AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, HEIGHT
RISES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. DESPITE THIS,
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITHIN
THIS REGION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS, BUT THE LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA, BUT DO NOT EXPECT STORM INTENSITY TO WARRANT HIGHER SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES.
AFTER 00Z, THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION, THESE STORMS COULD
CONTAIN LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN ACROSS MONTANA FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING (30S F DEWPOINTS) WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
WITHIN A ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR. THEREFORE, ONE OR TWO
FAST-MOVING STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE, BUT THE
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECLUDES SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..BENTLEY.. 09/04/2026
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