291
ACUS02 KWNS 091725
SWODY2
SPC AC 091723
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT WED SEP 09 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO MID-SOUTH...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS
AND MID-SOUTH.
..SYNOPSIS
A PROGRESSIVE, POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY, WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND AND
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL STALL FROM THE OZARKS INTO OK, WITH GENERALLY WEAK EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS REGION WILL HARBOR UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS AND SUPPORT MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH
MARGINAL SHEAR. LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT, TEMPORARY SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONGER AND BROAD
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL INDUCE
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET AIDING MOISTURE RETURN INTO NE AND SD.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MODEST MID TO HIGH LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES COMBINED WITH MOIST
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AROUND 35 KT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTING CELLULAR ACTIVITY. STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST NM AFTER 20Z, AND WILL PROCEED SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING. CELLS MAY
INITIALLY PRODUCE HAIL OVER 1.00" DIAMETER, WITH POSSIBLE CLUSTERING
SUPPORTING LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS.
..OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH
A BAND OF 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT,
WHICH WILL ALSO BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTERNOON STORMS MOVING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY COULD ORGANIZE INTO A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS, THOUGH SHEAR
WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER, STRONG HEATING JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING
OUTFLOW/GUSTS.
..JEWELL.. 09/09/2026
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