572
ACUS02 KWNS 190536
SWODY2
SPC AC 190534
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA...NORTHERN IL...WI...AND THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES VICINITY ON MONDAY. SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD, WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS WELL.
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS.
..UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
MONDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS, MID/UPPER
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INTENSIFY, WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING
50-60 KT AT 500 MB, AND 850-700 MB POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO 40+ KT.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BECOMING
POSITIONED FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI TO NORTHERN MO BY TUESDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 70S
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS MOISTURE WILL MODESTLY DECREASE
EAST OF LAKE MI. WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS, STRONG TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST (PARTICULARLY FROM IA INTO WI).
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING PLACEMENT AND EXTENT OF
POTENTIAL ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY MONDAY, AND WILL DEPEND ON
EVOLUTION OF STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE DAY 1/SUNDAY PERIOD, AND THE
TIMING OF A POSSIBLE LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. MORNING CONVECTION
COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE CORRIDORS OF GREATER SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEVERTHELESS,
THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, AND AIRMASS RECOVERY IS LIKELY.
SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES ARE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT INITIAL
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT, ALONG WITH INTENSIFYING 850 MB FLOW BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING MCSS
APPEARS POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
WITH A TRANSITION TO LINEAR STORM MODE. THE SOUTH AND EAST EXTENT OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ALSO UNCERTAIN, BUT IF A MATURE MCS DEVELOPS
DURING THE EVENING, IT SEEMS REASONABLE THE SEVERE WIND RISK COULD
PERSIST INTO PORTIONS OF LOWER MI, NORTHERN IN AND NORTHWEST OH
OVERNIGHT.
..NORTH CAROLINA VICINITY
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY. MODEST LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL ALLOW A
SURFACE FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS PART OF NC INTO VA, AND SPREADING
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG HEATING WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST,
BUT SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING, HIGH PW VALUES, AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
..LEITMAN.. 07/19/2026
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