374
ACUS02 KWNS 150450
SWODY2
SPC AC 150448
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN.
..MIDWEST
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF ENHANCED
MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WI/IL AND INTO
IN/LOWER MI/OH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLING ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUPPORT MLCAPE UP TO 1500
J/KG. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND A BAND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR PRECLUDING HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME IS THE EXPECTATION FOR MEAGER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..NORTHERN OKLAHOMA VICINITY
SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN OK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS MIDLEVEL FLOW
INCREASES WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HOWEVER,
GIVEN A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OR FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION OTHER THAN STRONG DAYTIME HEATING FOR AN INCREASING MOIST
AIRMASS, CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND BE MAINTAINED, A RISK FOR STRONG GUSTS AND
ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES, LOW
UNCONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES COULD BE NEEDED.
..EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
DEEP LAYER FLOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST INTO
MT/ND BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG HEATING AMID MEAGER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
..LEITMAN.. 06/15/2026
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