596
ACUS02 KWNS 251659
SWODY2
SPC AC 251658
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE MIDWEST...AND THE OZARKS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DAMAGING/SEVERE GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THESE REGIONS,
THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS.
..MID-MS VALLEY TO LOWER MI/NORTHWEST OH
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MODESTLY DEEPEN AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AS A SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A PLUME OF MID/UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS MO/IL/IN AND INTO LOWER
MI/NORTHWEST OH. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION THROUGH
EVENING. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CELLS IS EXPECTED,
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 30+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
AND ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE
SOMEWHAT SMALL IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE (MAINLY ACROSS IN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI) WHERE 0-1 KM SRH
WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY.
..OZARKS/LOWER MS VALLEY
AN MCV FROM PRIOR DAY CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED NEAR
NORTHEAST OK WEDNESDAY MORNING. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE, A VERY
MOIST (70S DEWPOINTS) AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE. DEEP-LAYER WEST/WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN MODEST, BUT SOME
LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO SHEAR AIDED BY THE MCV IS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN LARGE
INSTABILITY, HIGH PW AND POTENTIAL FOR FORWARD PROPAGATION VIA STORM
MERGERS/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS AND SUFFICIENT STORM COVERAGE, WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5)
RISK HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH THE DAY 2 UPDATE.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MODEST DEEP-LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES AROUND 20-30 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS
ABOVE 3 KM WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCH
STONES WITHIN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ACROSS EASTERN WY/CO WHERE SHEAR
WILL BE STRONGEST. OTHERWISE, STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS.
..LEITMAN.. 08/25/2026
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