976
ACUS02 KWNS 090552
SWODY2
SPC AC 090550
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO PARTS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS INITIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST OR
WEST-CENTRAL AL SATURDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO ADVANCE
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OWING TO ITS PHASING WITH A
SUBTROPICAL BRANCH TROUGH, RESULTING IN THE BROADENING OF AN
ENHANCED, SOUTHERLY DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF
THE CYCLONE TRACK.
ELSEWHERE, TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL APPROACH NORTHERN BAJA AND THE
LOWER-CO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS IT IS
DRAWN INTO THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST.
..SOUTHEAST
AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NORTH INTO THE TN VALLEY, IT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INLAND THROUGH GA AND THE CAROLINAS,
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM (OR RETREATING WEDGE) FRONT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING WITHIN THE POLEWARD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER,
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS. WHERE
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR, THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WITH SIZABLE SRH WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE TORNADOES CENTERED LARGELY OVER SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL GA SATURDAY WITH THAT THREAT SPREADING INTO PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
A CONDITIONAL INTENSITY GROUP 1 TORNADO CONTOUR WAS CONSIDERED OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
MAXIMIZED DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDED
THE INCLUSION OF THAT CONTOUR, AS WELL AS ANY HIGHER UNCONDITIONAL
TORNADO PROBABILITIES.
..LOWER COLORADO VALLEY
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITHIN A ZONE OF STRENGTHENING LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW PRECEDING
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO YIELD POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. A COMPARATIVELY GREATER RISK FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS VERTICAL SHEAR AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION.
..GREAT BASIN
A BELT OF 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
EVOLVING, WESTERN U.S. TROUGH. STEEPENING LOW/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
COINCIDE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL DATA INDICATE STRONGER INSTABILITY, LOW SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED.
..MEAD.. 10/09/2026
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