860
ACUS02 KWNS 041727
SWODY2
SPC AC 041725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2026
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSOURI
INTO ILLINOIS...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, AND FROM NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..MISSOURI/IOWA/ILLINOIS
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING MODERATE TO SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL
NOT BE OVERLY STRONG, THOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY AUGMENT
LIFT LOCALLY. ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, DEWPOINTS OF MID/UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S F ARE EXPECTED. 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. INITIAL CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CLUSTERS/LINEAR SEGMENTS WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT STORM MODES WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS.
..NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLES
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE RATON MESA WILL ALLOW FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
(AROUND 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR) WILL PROMOTE MARGINALLY
ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG/SEVERE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD GIVEN
STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
..ARIZONA
A MOIST AIRMASS (50S TO PERHAPS NEAR 60 F DEWPOINTS) WILL BE IN
PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN EASTERN PORTION OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. MODEST EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MOVE
ACTIVITY OFF OF THE RIM INTO THE LOWER DESERTS. STRONG/SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE CLUSTERING OF OUTFLOW
OCCURS.
..WENDT.. 08/04/2026
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