663
ACUS02 KWNS 231728
SWODY2
SPC AC 231727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO THE
ARK-LA-MISS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY
MID-AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO THE
ARK-LA-MISS. A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
..SYNOPSIS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE
IMPULSES WILL DAMPEN MONDAY NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER MAY DECAY AS IT TRACKS
INTO THE OZARKS. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTH FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL
TX AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
..CENTRAL TX TO MS
PRIMARY CHANGE THIS OUTLOOK HAS BEEN TO SHIFT/EXPAND SEVERE
PROBABILITIES EAST/SOUTH BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR HIGHLIGHTING A MESOSCALE CORRIDOR OF STRONG
TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH A LEVEL 3-ENH RISK.
ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL
TX TO WESTERN AR. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS THROUGH MIDDAY. DOWNSTREAM OF THESE STORMS, THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST TX. AMID RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, A PLUME OF MODERATE
BUOYANCY WILL BECOME PERVASIVE FROM SOUTH INTO MOST OF EAST TX.
PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD COMMENCE AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AMID
WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND MINIMAL INHIBITION. ACTIVITY SHOULD
INTENSIFY/INCREASE ALONG THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLY-DAY CONVECTION AND
IN CONFLUENCE BANDS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, BUT CONVECTIVE
MODE WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE MESSY ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW
THAT NEARLY PARALLELS THE SHEAR VECTOR. THE MORE SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS
JUST AHEAD AND TRAILING SOUTHWARD WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
DEGREE OF DISCRETE CONVECTION THAT FORMS EASTWARD IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE REMAINS
LARGE. NOCTURNAL TORNADO AND SOME WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SABINE VALLEY AND EXPANDS EAST THROUGH MS.
..GRAMS.. 11/23/2025
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