233
ACUS02 KWNS 230654
SWODY2
SPC AC 230652
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TEXAS TO
FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EAST TEXAS TOWARDS THE
ARK-LA-MISS. A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
STATES ON MONDAY WITH A SECOND MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.
..EAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO THE NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, BUT
A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING. THE
WARM FRONT WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY AND LEAD TO
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. A MESSY STORM MODE
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
BEGIN BY MID-AFTERNOON AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR
AND SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING RESULTS IN AN UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
OPEN WARM-SECTOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
(40-45 KNOTS) IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR DURING THIS
SAME TIMEFRAME. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF WINDOW DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WHERE A FEW TORNADOES (PERHAPS STRONG)
COULD OCCUR.
A NOCTURNAL WIND/TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHERE
CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL PERSIST.
..BENTLEY.. 11/23/2025
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