299
ACUS02 KWNS 121653
SWODY2
SPC AC 121651
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY. WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH,
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES, WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW INITIALLY
OVER SOUTHWEST TX WILL EJECT EASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WHILE A STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE PRIMARY CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MEAGER FOR ANY APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION
AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ONE AREA WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST FL AND THE KEYS, WHERE
SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING BENEATH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY
SUPPORT MUCAPE OF AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AND A WARM LAYER AROUND 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, BUT A STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST FL COAST, WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE.
..DEAN.. 01/12/2026
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