750
ACUS02 KWNS 110602
SWODY2
SPC AC 110600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
..PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY-DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
ANY MORNING CONVECTION WILL IN TURN INFLUENCE THE POSITION OF AN
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL GENERALLY EXTEND FROM PARTS OF THE
MID MO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. STRONG HEATING, RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND GENERALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TO EXTREME BUOYANCY TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, WITH
SUBSTANTIAL MUCAPE POSSIBLE TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT.
MULTIPLE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ANY EARLY-DAY STORM CLUSTER TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH A DAMAGING-WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE,
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR INITIAL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST DIURNAL
STORMS, THOUGH THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR CLUSTERING AND PERHAPS
ORGANIZED UPSCALE GROWTH, WITH INCREASING WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF
ORGANIZED-SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE, AND A 15% WIND AREA WAS ADDED WHERE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
HAS THE GREATEST SIGNAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.
...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...
TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO AND AN
EASTWARD-EXTENDING WARM FRONT, MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN SD/NE INTO NORTHWEST KS/FAR NORTHEAST CO.
MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST, BUT VEERING WIND PROFILES
WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
INITIAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT COULD POSE
A THREAT OF HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH AND
POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NE AND VICINITY. GUIDANCE
VARIES REGARDING THE ORGANIZATION OF ANY NOCTURNAL MCS, BUT AT LEAST
ISOLATED DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL COULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
..NORTHERN SD/SOUTHERN ND INTO PARTS OF MN/WI/MI
WHILE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION,
MODERATE BUOYANCY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONT
DRAPED FROM NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER INTO SOUTHERN MN, WI, AND LOWER
MI. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS UNCERTAIN WITHIN THIS REGIME, BUT MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL IF ANY SUSTAINED STORMS DEVELOP.
..CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THE EVOLUTION OF ANTECEDENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL HAVE A
CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE ON THE POSITION OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT
AND ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT AND ALSO ACROSS
FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS, WITH MODEST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CELLS/CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT
OF WIND DAMAGE. ANY FEATURES FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
(SUCH AS A PERSISTENT STORM CLUSTER OR MCV) COULD RESULT IN A
GREATER COVERAGE OF WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS IS TOO LOW FOR MORE THAN 5% WIND PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..DEAN.. 08/11/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page