378
ACUS02 KWNS 100600
SWODY2
SPC AC 100558
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
OZARK PLATEAU EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SURROUNDING THIS AREA,
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST TOWARD TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
.. SYNOPSIS
A STRONG MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, A
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. FARTHER EAST, A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM FAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEST INTO THE CENTRAL US AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH DURING THE DAY, ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US INTERACTS WITH THE RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT, WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
.. OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
BY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID-90FS
WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60FS INTO THE LOW 70FS. THIS
SHOULD YIELD AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
1500-3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS GROWING UPSCALE INTO SOUTHWARD
MOVING BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND MEAN SUB-CLOUD LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 40-50 PERCENT, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG COLD POOL
GENERATION.
.. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
SIMILAR TO AREAS FARTHER EAST, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER 90FS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60FS TO LOW-70FS
YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (GENERALLY AROUND 1.75 TO 2 INCHES),
DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG, AND SUB-CLOUD LAYER MEAN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 30-40 PERCENT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG, DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS -- SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT.
A FEW OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
INITIATE IS LOWER THAN AREAS FARTHER EAST, WHICH YIELDS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN ADDING HIGHER WIND PROBABILITIES. A LEVEL 2/SLIGHT
RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN THE NUMBER AND
LOCATION OF STORMS INCREASES.
.. MID-ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KNOTS, A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
COUPLED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (AROUND 2 INCHES) SHOULD
SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.
.. SOUTHERN ARIZONA
EAST/NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER HIGH, RESULTING IN A BELT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 KNOTS. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. AS THESE STORMS MOVE WEST, THE STRENGTHENING FLOW/SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..MARSH.. 07/10/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page