052
ACUS02 KWNS 131732
SWODY2
SPC AC 131730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND
MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY.
..EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EARLY MORNING
ELEVATED STORMS WITHIN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THESE STORMS WILL
GENERALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME GIVEN THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL JET. AN
MCV WILL LIKELY EMANATE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND IMPACT THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MCV WILL TRACK ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES WITH REGARD TO HOW ORGANIZED
THIS MCV AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE
BOUNDARY BY THE AFTERNOON DESPITE SOME EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. THE
TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE THAT STORMS WILL
FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON. MANY OTHER CAMS SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT AFTER
00Z AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AGAIN. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY HAVE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS INITIALLY, BUT WEAK FLOW
ABOVE 500 MB WILL TEND TO LEAD TO OUTFLOW DOMINANCE AND CLUSTERING.
SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT INCREASE, THERE MAY
BE GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
..OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT AN MCV FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE MCV VARIES. REGARDLESS OF HOW
STRONG THE MCV IS, THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR CLOUD COVER
LIMITING DESTABILIZATION/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF THESE
REGIONS. STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO BE DISPLACED FROM THE
LARGER BUOYANCY VALUES IN THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
MCV, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE SPATIALLY
LIMITED. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CORRIDOR OF STRONGER HEATING IN
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WHICH COULD SEE LOCALLY
STRONGER STORMS.
..CO FRONT RANGE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
MOIST EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
AGAIN PROMOTE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE FRONT RANGE.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG, BUT A FEW STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE HOTTER, WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WINDS. THERE WILL BE
SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST
850 MB WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER EAST, HOWEVER. IF A CLUSTER CAN
FORM, IT MAY PERSIST FARTHER EASTWARD INTO LATER IN THE EVENING.
..WENDT.. 08/13/2026
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