464
ACUS02 KWNS 021726
SWODY2
SPC AC 021724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA......
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND A SMALL PART OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA, IN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND,
AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
..SYNOPSIS
A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, WITH A BELT OF
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND A
SECONDARY LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, A SECOND MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND WITH A
COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH AND EASTWARD AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO
QUEBEC.
..NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THESE WILL POSE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. PRECEDING MORNING
CONVECTION, STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH
MOISTENING WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO REDEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON.
RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE. INITIALLY,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LINGERING CAPPING AT THE BASE OF THE
EML. THIS MAY ERODE THROUGH TIME BUT RELATIVELY WARM 750-800 MB
LEVELS MAY LEAD TO FAIRLY HIGH LCLS, WHICH MAY INHIBIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL THOUGH LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS WILL BE COMMON.
THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
CAPPING AT THE BASE OF AN EML MAY REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH, LIMITING
CONVECTION WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
NONETHELESS, CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SIGNAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.
..NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
POCKETS OF MORE FOCUSED DAYTIME HEATING MAY RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON. AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT
TO THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, NAMELY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE GREATER AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE PRESENCE
OF 35-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
EASTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MONDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER,
MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND MODEST SHEAR AROUND 20-25 KTS WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR TWO WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS.
..THORNTON.. 08/02/2026
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