108
ACUS02 KWNS 090519
SWODY2
SPC AC 090517
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CDT WED SEP 09 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO THE
MID-SOUTH...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS
INTO THE MID-SOUTH.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL TX, WHILE THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY STALLS
OVER THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. POCKETS OF WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT
WILL LARGELY BE MODULATED BY AREAS OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, AS WELL AS WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK, WHILE STRONG FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OFFSET FROM STRONGER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
THIS WILL LIMIT MORE FOCUSED/ROBUST SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, A FEW
STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WHERE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES COULD SUPPORT AROUND 25-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THIS REGIME.
WITHIN THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FURTHER EAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH, SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING
COULD OCCUR TO PROMOTE SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS VIA STORM/OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS, OR FROM WET MICROBURSTS WITHIN THE HIGH-PW AND STEEPER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
..LEITMAN.. 09/09/2026
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