566
ACUS02 KWNS 061735
SWODY2
SPC AC 061734
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT THU AUG 06 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
..SUMMARY
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY, WITH AREAS OF
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL. OTHER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
HAIL OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA.
..MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO WISCONSIN/UPPER PENINSULAR MICHIGAN
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN UPPER 60S F FARTHER
NORTH TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET WILL BRING STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
30-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO THE REGION (STRONGER SHEAR WILL
GENERALLY EXIST WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT). INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE CELLULAR WITH A TENDENCY TO BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH TIME.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. GIVEN THE
STRONGER BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WITHIN IOWA, THERE IS GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP WITH AN ASSOCIATED GREATER RISK FOR WIND
DAMAGE. VARIANCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH WITHIN MODEL GUIDANCE AS TO
WHERE THIS CORRIDOR WILL EXIST DUE IN PART TO THE SUBTLE FORCING.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD INTENSIFY AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES
DURING THE DAY. OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIMITED MORNING ACTIVITY
WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG THE FRONT FARTHER EAST. AN INCREASE IN
WIND PROBABILITIES IS POSSIBLE AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
..SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
AT LEAST MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES WITHIN THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL CAMS AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL.
..NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
THOUGH MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN ON THURSDAY, THE
APPROACH OF A MODEST TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY ORGANIZED
STORMS WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. AFTERNOON MLCAPE WILL NEAR
2000 J/KG IN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STORMS
WITHIN THIS WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A STALLED BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW, SOME POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE PLACED IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT WEAK AS WELL. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS, SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE WITHHELD, THOUGH ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR.
..WENDT.. 08/06/2026
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