465
ACUS02 KWNS 250557
SWODY2
SPC AC 250556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAMAGING/SEVERE
GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THESE REGIONS.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM
ACTIVITY. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS FOCUSED WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS WYOMING
FLOW SHOULD BE STRONGER, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKER INSTABILITY.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD EXTEND INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER AND THEREFORE, STORM
ORGANIZATION IS LESS CERTAIN.
..GREAT LAKES
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MID-60S
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY.
MODERATE MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW NORMAL TO THE FRONT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND STORM MOTION FOR A SUPERCELLULAR STORM
MODE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT,
HOWEVER, SOME TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
ARE SMALL, BUT DO SHOW MODEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR COMBINED WITH A SUPERCELL STORM MODE MAY RESULT IN A TORNADO
OR TWO.
..LOWER MS VALLEY
SEVERAL MCVS FROM DAY 1/TUESDAY CONVECTION MAY EXIST AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THESE FEATURES
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY KEEP
STORM MODE RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED. HOWEVER, THE MOIST AIRMASS AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH ONE OR MORE MCVS AS A
FORCING MECHANISM SHOULD COMBINE FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM
WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..BENTLEY.. 08/25/2026
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