537
ACUS02 KWNS 050550
SWODY2
SPC AC 050548
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...AND FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER SMALL PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS,
AND OVER THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
ISOLATED HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACTIVITY.
..CENTRAL SD INTO NORTHWEST NE
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SK/MB, WITH AT
LEAST SOME INFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SD AND WESTERN
NE, WHERE STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR. A NARROW BAND OF UNCAPPED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, WITH SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING SCATTERED
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY 850 MB WINDS OVER 20 KT WILL
AID/MAINTAIN MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS. LOCALIZED HAIL MAY
OCCUR INITIALLY, WITH SOME CLUSTERING AND WIND POTENTIAL INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
..SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHWEST OK
A SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST TO EXIST FROM SOUTHERN KS
INTO NORTHERN OK, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND STRONG HEATING TO THE
SOUTH. NEAR/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS, WITH A ZONE OF
STORMS DEVELOPING. THESE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW, AND A
FEW SEVERE GUSTS MAY OCCUR.
..NORTHEAST
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE AFTERNOON. HEIGHT TENDENCIES WILL REMAIN
NEUTRAL FROM NY INTO WV/VA DURING THE DAY, BUT STRONG HEATING, PWAT
NEAR 2.00" AND SUFFICIENT MUCAPE SHOULD AID SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AFTER 19Z. THIS WOULD INCLUDE
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NY INTO CENTRAL PA AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF WESTERN VA. A FEW STRONG GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..JEWELL.. 08/05/2026
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