960
ACUS02 KWNS 300530
SWODY2
SPC AC 300528
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM IOWA SOUTHWARD
INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU, AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES, MAINLY IN MISSOURI.
..SYNOPSIS
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO MID MO VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH A BELT OF 30-35
KT WINDS FORECAST WITHIN THE WESTERN THROUGH SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THAT FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO SLIGHT DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST OR CENTRAL
IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INTO SOUTHERN IL BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU.
...LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE OZARK
PLATEAU...
MAINLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
AT 12Z FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA AND MO WITHIN A ZONE OF FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM, AND WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THOSE MECHANISMS
ARE LIKELY TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW, MAINLY ACROSS IL. IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY-DAY STORMS AND WHERE CLOUD BREAKS CAN OCCUR, DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2500+ J/KG.
ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY- TO
MID AFTERNOON INITIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OR
SOUTHEAST IA WITH SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS MO. THE 00Z CAMS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL STORM
MODE WILL BE SEMI-DISCRETE, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL FORECASTS
OF 30-35 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED LARGELY PERPENDICULAR
TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY.
WHILE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES, WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
CONSIDERABLE MELTING, POTENTIALLY LIMITING THAT THREAT. DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED BY STORM MODE WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT BEING DEPENDENT ON UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS OR A
COLD-POOL-DRIVEN MCS. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
TO THE EAST OF THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS. THAT BEING SAID, A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH: 1)
STORMS FORMING NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW, SHOULD
MODEST LOW-LEVEL CAPE DEVELOP IN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY ENHANCED
VERTICAL VORTICITY, AND 2) ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MOVE EAST INTO THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST
ACROSS EASTERN MO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
GIVEN THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTIES, A LEVEL 1/MARGINAL RISK WILL BE
MAINTAINED WITH THIS FORECAST.
..COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
INITIALLY NORTHERLY, POST-FRONTAL WINDS FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST BY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING,
SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FAVORED
TERRAIN. MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL COINCIDE WITH
30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WITH TIME,
STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP,
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NM
FRIDAY EVENING WHERE THE MERGING OF THE TERRAIN-INDUCED STORMS AND
COLD-FRONTAL STORMS COULD ORGANIZE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL.
..MEAD.. 07/30/2026
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