781
ACUS02 KWNS 141716
SWODY2
SPC AC 141714
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A
CORRIDOR FROM KANSAS INTO WESTERN OHIO...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
..DISCUSSION
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY, WITH 20-30 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS TRAILING
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM
LOWER MI TO CENTRAL MO TO THE KS/OK BORDER BY 21Z.
MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
WITH AREAS OF 70S F DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO IL/IN.
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, CONTRIBUTING TO
2000+ J/KG MUCAPE, THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR.
EARLY DAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING FROM NORTHERN KS INTO LOWER
MI, WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER,
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE AGGREGATE FRONT/OUTFLOW AS
THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY
SHORT-LIVED AS SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER, A FEW CLUSTERS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT, WITH SOME EASTWARD PROPAGATION AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..JEWELL.. 09/14/2026
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