374
ACUS02 KWNS 100535
SWODY2
SPC AC 100532
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA,
VIRGINIA, AND SOUTHEAST MARYLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO
VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER KY AND TN SUNDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE PROGRESSING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL BE PRECEDED BY A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF
HEIGHT FALLS AND A BELT OF 45-55+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MIDLEVELS, WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE WARM SECTOR, SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL VA AT THE
JUNCTION OF A COOL FRONT/TROUGH ADVANCING EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
ELSEWHERE, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL WEAKEN WHILE
ACCELERATING FROM SOUTHERN CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITHIN A BELT OF
50-60 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION/LOW WILL
LIKEWISE DEVELOP FROM SOUTHERN CA INTO NORTHERN UT BY SUNDAY
EVENING.
..SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS
A 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN, ENHANCING THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER,
CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z SUNDAY WITHIN THE
EXPANDING WARM SECTOR WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION
AT MANY LOCATIONS. NONETHELESS, A MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WHICH MAY SUPPORT TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS WITH THE
THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS SPREADING
FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY.
A HIGHER-PROBABILITY RISK FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHEAST VA, WHERE THE 00Z REFS AND HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES A
CORRIDOR OF LOCALLY STRONGER INSTABILITY (SBCAPE UP TO 1000-1250
J/KG). THOSE AREAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO 5% TORNADO AND 15% WIND
PROBABILITIES AND A RELATED LEVEL-2/SLIGHT RISK.
..LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME (E.G., DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID-UPPER 60S) ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF CA WILL RESIDE OVER THE
LOWER-CO VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH REFS AND HREF GUIDANCE
INDICATING SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR, AIDED BY THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THE REMNANT RACHEL
CIRCULATION, WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO OVER THE LOWER-CO VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY, LEADING TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF ANY ASSOCIATED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THAT SAID,
CORRIDORS OF MODEST INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WHICH COMBINED
WITH RELATIVELY STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 10/10/2026
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