150
ACUS02 KWNS 060512
SWODY2
SPC AC 060510
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT MON JUL 06 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
..SUMMARY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER
WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS BY LATE
TUESDAY EVENING, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. OTHER THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS MAY FORM TO THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE ARK-LA-TEX VICINITY AND POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
..DISCUSSION
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE WESTERLIES MAY BECOME A BIT LESS
PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA BY TUESDAY.
AS A MID/UPPER HIGH EVOLVES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CANADIAN ARCTIC
LATITUDES, A DEEP REMNANT LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE MAY ONLY
SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY, TOWARD THE
NORTHERN QUEBEC SHORES, WHILE A NOTABLE UPSTREAM TROUGH SLOWLY
PIVOTS INLAND OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.
IN ADVANCE OF THE TRAILING PERTURBATION, LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGHING,
COMPRISED OF AT LEAST A COUPLE SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
THE MODEST ZONAL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.,
IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS IT DOES,
MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN INITIAL MID-LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROMINENT ALONG
AN AXIS FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WHILE ALSO DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. IT
APPEARS THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST, LEAVING A REMNANT SHEAR
AXIS BETWEEN THE RIDGING, ROUGHLY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS, WITH PERHAPS A WELL-DEFINED,
QUASI-STATIONARY CIRCULATION ALONG IT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH VICINITY.
..PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST
BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF
ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR SLOWLY BECOMING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT STRONGER
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS WILL FOCUS IN A CORRIDOR ALONG/SOUTH OF A STALLING SURFACE COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE HUDSON BAY CYCLONE, ALONG WHICH SURFACE DEW
POINTS INCREASING TO NEAR 70F MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH TIMING OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORM INITIATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, THIS PROBABLY WILL BE AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS. ONCE THIS
OCCURS, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. PARTICULARLY BY LATE
TUESDAY EVENING, NEAR THE NOSE OF A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING
BOUNDARY-LAYER JET ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPSCALE GROWING AND ORGANIZING CLUSTER APPEARS
POSSIBLE, ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD.
..MID ATLANTIC
BOTH HREF AND REFS CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE ARE SIMILAR WITH
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING CONCENTRATED ALONG
AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 KT OR LESS,
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND
MODEST CAPE MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER
STORMS.
THERE DOES APPEAR AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR AN UPSCALE GROWING CLUSTER
PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD COASTAL AREAS BY TUESDAY EVENING,
WITH CONTINUING RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG A
CONSOLIDATING GUST FRONT.
..NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA
BOTH HREF AND REFS CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM GUIDANCE CURRENTLY FOCUS
HIGHER THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION, NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD, WEAK
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. AIDED BY INFLOW OF MODERATE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY, WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DAYTIME
HEATING, SOME CLUSTERING OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE, ACCOMPANIED BY
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS.
..KERR.. 07/06/2026
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