950
ACUS02 KWNS 180526
SWODY2
SPC AC 180524
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS FROM NORTH TEXAS/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
..MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BELT OF ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF A PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MODEST (GENERALLY 50S F
DEWPOINTS), BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM WILL SUPPORT WEAK DESTABILIZATION (AROUND 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE). FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES
AND ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH AROUND 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES. ISOLATED HIGHER-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS. ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..ARKLATEX VICINITY THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES
MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ONGOING MCS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OR
FAR SOUTHERN OK AT FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING GIVEN MODESTLY ENHANCED
MID/UPPER FLOW AND A CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX VICINITY. THIS MCS AND/OR REMNANT MCV MAY CONTINUE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST TX OR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH
THE DAY, TRACKING ALONG A SOUTHWARD-SAGGING SURFACE BOUNDARY.
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST VICINITY, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES COMMON. THIS WILL AID
IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED SURFACE
BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, BUT WATER LADEN DOWNDRAFTS
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED MICROBURSTS. IT IS UNCLEAR IF CONVECTION WILL
BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO A FORWARD
PROPAGATING CLUSTER, BUT IF THIS OCCURS, DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
WOULD INCREASE.
..COASTAL CAROLINAS
A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SMALL MCS OR CLUSTER ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE MORNING. AS THIS FEATURE
SPREADS NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH AFTERNOON, STRONG GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..FLORIDA
A SEASONALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL FL ON FRIDAY. PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 20-30 KT MIDLEVEL LOW, AND THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
TRANSIENT ORGANIZED CELLS ALONG PARTS OF THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FL AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWARD-SAGGING SURFACE BOUNDARY. AMPLE MOISTURE/HIGH PW VALUES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..LEITMAN.. 06/18/2026
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