368
ACUS02 KWNS 121700
SWODY2
SPC AC 121658
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY IMPACT PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
..OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION, A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST.
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
THE NORTHEAST. WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY, MODEST HEATING AND MID 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT WEAK TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY.
THIS INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER,
STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A WARM NOSE AROUND 2KM SHOULD
LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM THE FRONT. EVEN ALONG THE FRONT,
STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE
THAT STRONG AS THE SURFACE LOW-DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE,
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT CONCERNS WITH STORM COVERAGE PRECLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A MARGINAL RISK AT THIS TIME.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LEE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
EASTERN WYOMING AND VICINITY. A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND OVERSPREAD WESTERN
MONTANA. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AMID MODEST SURFACE
HEATING. STRONG FLOW ABOVE 3KM MAY OCCASIONALLY MIX TO THE SURFACE
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. IF GREATER HEATING/INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP,
AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
..BENTLEY.. 09/12/2026
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