826
ACUS02 KWNS 081727
SWODY2
SPC AC 081725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU OCT 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND VICINITY
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA/SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
..SUMMARY
A RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN GULF COASTAL
AREAS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF ISAIAS.
..DISCUSSION
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUBSTANTIVE AMPLIFICATION OF MID/UPPER
TROUGHING WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS OCCURS, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD A BIT
FURTHER WHILE TRANSLATING EAST OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTHERN
U.S. GREAT PLAINS THROUGH NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY EARLY SATURDAY. FARTHER EAST, LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING LIKELY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY ACROSS AND EAST OF THE NEW
ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES VICINITY. IN LOWER LATITUDES, MID/UPPER
TROUGHING FORCED SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN A WEAKER BRANCH OF WESTERLIES
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF TROPICAL STORM
RACHEL ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FARTHER DOWNSTREAM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OF THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A MID-LEVEL
LOW ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS IT
INTERACTS WITH HURRICANE ISAIAS.
THE SPREAD CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED
HURRICANE REMAINS SIZABLE, PARTICULARLY AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS AND
INLAND OF NORTHEASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS. IN GENERAL, IT STILL
APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT IT WILL TAKE A NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD
TURN AFTER MIGRATING INLAND NEAR/EAST OF MOBILE BAY. THIS HAS BEEN
PRECEDED BY AN INFLUX OF DRY/POTENTIALLY COOL BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST STATES THROUGH CAROLINAS,
WHICH MAY BE REINFORCED LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF BUILDING SURFACE RIDGING BECOMING CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES.
..NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST REGION
THE RISK FOR TORNADOES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISAIAS REMAINS UNCLEAR
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE FORECAST STORM TRACK
AND SPEED, IT APPEARS POSSIBLE, IF NOT PROBABLE, THAT THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT (WITH RESPECT TO STORM MOTION) FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SPREAD NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INLAND OF
COASTAL AREAS BEFORE NEAR-SURFACE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
DESTABILIZE. AS THIS APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN
FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS PRIOR TO 10/00Z, SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS MAY IMPACT OFFSHORE WATERS.
HOWEVER, IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT NEAR-SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND, PRIOR TO
THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE. BARRING A
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES COULD BE REDUCED ACROSS THIS AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS
FOR THIS PERIOD.
CLOSER TO THE TALLAHASSEE AND APALACHICOLA VICINITIES, AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, A GRADUAL INLAND BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
ISAIAS. COINCIDENT WITH THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SIZABLE
CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, FORCING ASCENT TO THE EAST OF
THE DEVELOPING DRY SLOT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A BAND OR
BANDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, WITH TRANSIENT EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES POSING A RISK FOR TORNADOES.
..KERR.. 10/08/2026
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