095
ACUS02 KWNS 311647
SWODY2
SPC AC 311645
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...
..SUMMARY
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY, MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND PART
OF NORTHERN ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BROADER AREA
OF MORE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY
OCCUR OVER NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.
..TN AND OH VALLEYS
A COMPACT UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU TOWARD
THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BELT OF
30-40 KT MID/UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION,
DECREASING WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL IL WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS IN AND WESTERN OH. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST IN
TANDEM WITH THE LOW, WHILE A WARM FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/OH. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH A
PLUME OF 70S DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MS/AL
THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND INTO KY/SOUTHERN IN/SOUTHWEST OH.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS STRONGER HEATING MAY BE
LIMITED. FURTHERMORE, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STUNTED BY EARLY
DAY CONVECTION AND LIMITED HEATING. RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AMID SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH STORMS FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY
EVENING. SOME TORNADO RISK ALSO IS APPARENT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT, WHERE 0-1 KM SRH WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER, THE
IMPACT OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS ON LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/DESTABILIZATION LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF MORE
ROBUST TORNADO POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE
INSUFFICIENT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SRH, PRECLUDING HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..NM/AZ
A MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SOUTH ACROSS HIGH
PLAINS WITHIN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME INTO THE AFTERNOON, PROMOTING
UPSLOPE FLOW AMID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS. STEEP LOW AND MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL FOSTER UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE, AND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE RATON MESA VICINITY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN NM. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL
MAINLY POSE A RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE OUTFLOW GUSTS. HOWEVER, INITIAL
CONVECTION COULD ALSO POSE A RISK FOR HAIL GIVEN ELONGATED/STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS AND 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -8 TO -10 C.
..LEITMAN.. 07/31/2026
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