633  
ACUS02 KWNS 191652  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 191651  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1051 AM CST SAT JAN 19 2019  
 
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTH  
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS  
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH  
CAROLINA.  
   
..EASTERN NC
 
 
A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN  
SEABOARD DURING THE DAY AS A SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS NORTHEAST FROM  
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT  
OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL SWEEP EAST OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL  
PLAIN DURING THE MORNING. A MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR  
IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NC AT THE END OF THE DAY  
1 PERIOD AND PERHAPS EXTEND INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS FOR DAY 2.  
STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED  
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SUGGEST A 2-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY  
FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK (WIND/WEAK TORNADO) COULD MATERIALIZE AT  
THE START OF THE DAY-2 PERIOD ON SUNDAY. THE SEVERE RISK WILL END  
COINCIDENT WITH STORMS AND THE FRONT MOVING EAST AND OFFSHORE INTO  
THE ATLANTIC.  
   
..MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD
 
 
TORNADO: 2% - MARGINAL  
WIND: 5% - MARGINAL  
HAIL: <5% - NONE  
 
..SMITH.. 01/19/2019  
 

 
 
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