648
ACUS02 KWNS 150512
SWODY2
SPC AC 150510
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..MIDWEST TO MID-ATLANTIC
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES/MCVS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY WITHIN BROAD, MODESTLY ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MAY BE
LOCATED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN
ONGOING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF PA/NJ AND
THE DELMARVA VICINITY. THIS POSES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HOWEVER, FURTHER SOUTH, STRONGER HEATING IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH MODEST DESTABILIZATION. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE/MCV WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TOWARD
THE BLUE RIDGE. SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING MAY OCCUR AS CONVECTION
ORGANIZES AND SPREADS SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING, POSING A RISK
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS.
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY, A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
GENERALLY BE WEAK, BUT SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES
NEAR/GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. THIS COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE.
..HIGH PLAINS
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER ON SUNDAY. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
AID IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND
30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CELLS MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST OFF
HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..LEITMAN.. 08/15/2026
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