842
ACUS02 KWNS 060511
SWODY2
SPC AC 060510
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT SUN SEP 06 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA ON MONDAY.
..NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION, SHIFTING IT EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THIS OCCURS, STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A CORRIDOR OF 60S TO NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WARMER MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
MAY RESULT IN CAPPING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD ERODE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES WILL FOSTER EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES GREATER THAN 35 KT.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING. THOUGH NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL RESULTING IN INCREASE
INHIBITION AFTER DARK, WARM ADVECTION AIDED BY THE STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA AND INTO MN
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION, BUT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF MID/UPPER FLOW, SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
..LEITMAN.. 09/06/2026
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