811
ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH FLORIDA
INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
..SUMMARY
A FEW STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FAR NORTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
.. SYNOPSIS
A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE, CENTERED OVER THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE US ON MONDAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
CENTER, BROAD NORTHEAST-TO-EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL. A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD TO ITS NORTH.
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE, EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH-PRESSURE AREA WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CORN
BELT, WITH A WEAK LOW-PRESSURE AREA CONTINUING TO MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS GEORGIA INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA.
.. NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA
TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STALLED BOUNDARY, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER-60FS TO LOW-70FS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING.
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING COOLER WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS DAYS (MID-80FS VERSUS MID-90FS), WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TYPICALLY NEEDED FOR STRONG,
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE LOW AND A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MAY FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THE 5% WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED, ALTHOUGH THE RESULTING COVERAGE OF WIND REPORTS SHOULD
BE LESS THAN IN PRECEDING DAYS.
.. ARIZONA
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON
MONDAY. THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT OF SEASONABLY MOIST LOW LEVELS
AND MODEST EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE WESTWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.
THESE CLUSTERS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS
GIVEN VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WHICH MAY SCOUR
OUT THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OR LEAVE BEHIND SUFFICIENT
CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER THAT MODULATES DIURNAL HEATING. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY, AND THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE ASSESSED SEVERE THREAT
AT THIS TIME, WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING UNCONDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
PROBABILITIES.
.. WESTERN MONTANA
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN MONTANA, PARTICULARLY SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. MODEST
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT BUOYANCY AND
OVERALL UPDRAFT INTENSITY. HOWEVER, SHOULD A STRONGER STORM DEVELOP,
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG,
GUSTY OUTFLOWS.
..MARSH.. 07/12/2026
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