778
ACUS02 KWNS 280547
SWODY2
SPC AC 280545
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
..SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALOFT, BROAD-SCALE
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AND BROAD SUBSIDENCE/HEIGHT RISES WILL
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST REGIONS. EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM SOUTH FL SAMPLED SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY, AND FURTHER MOISTENING IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL MODULATE THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN NEGLIGIBLE CAPPING AND LOCALIZED
ASCENT WITHIN A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE. ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ/NM, AN
INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STRONG
HEATING/DEEP MIXING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AROUND 250 J/KG SBCAPE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND/OR
LOCALIZED OROGRAPHIC ASCENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP
INVERTED-V PROFILES MAY SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS, BUT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT
HIGHLIGHTS.
..MOORE.. 03/28/2026
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