206
ACUS02 KWNS 260651
SWODY2
SPC AC 260650
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
.. DISCUSSION
A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TOUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER REGIME OF
MID-LEVEL TOUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS LARGE-SCALE SETUP
WILL MAINTAIN MODEST ASCENT ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS, THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
.. SOUTHERN ALABAMA/GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SEASONABLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 60FS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SAGGING SURFACE BOUNDARY.
DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 70FS, WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL
DIURNAL HEATING.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENTS WITH
MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THESE BUOYANCY PROFILES APPEAR
TALL AND SKINNY, WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING,
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS. WHILE HODOGRAPHS ARE
NOTABLY ELONGATED, SUGGESTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION, WEAK LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS AND
POOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE A SUSTAINED, ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT.
.. FLORIDA PENINSULA
SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE PENINSULA INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF A CAPE ROBBING CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB,
ALTHOUGH THIS INVERSION LIFTS DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH. THE ASSOCIATED
WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CAPPING INVERSION
WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY, HODOGRAPH
LENGTHS DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, INDICATIVE OF WEAKENING
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GIVEN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT AND THE LACK OF
FOCUSED FORCING, ANY THUNDERSTORM SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
..MARSH.. 02/26/2026
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