991
ACUS02 KWNS 041717
SWODY2
SPC AC 041715
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2026
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY MONDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES
AND OFFSHORE MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW, NORTHWEST FLOW IS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON THE
PERIPHERY OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE GULF COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTENSIFYING BEHIND IT OVER THE
MIDWEST. STABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES. SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST AND MUCH OF FL NEAR THE FRONT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH POOR LAPSE RATES AND
LITTLE OVERLAP WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS UNLIKELY.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK, BUT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
PROMOTE SOME GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WITH HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
..LYONS.. 10/04/2026
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