322
ACUS02 KWNS 301724
SWODY2
SPC AC 301722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO WISCONSIN...
..SUMMARY
SPARSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY WIND AND HAIL, ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SK/MB ON MONDAY,
WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER HIGH WILL CENTERED FROM THE
OZARKS TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS. FARTHER WEST, MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE WEST, WITH A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CA LATE.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL OCCLUDE OVER SK/MB, WITH DRY
WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MN. SOUTH OF THIS AREA, A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT WILL REMAIN, ROUGHLY FROM WI INTO IA
AND NE. HERE, A MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST, WITH 2000-3000 J/KG
MUCAPE FROM IA INTO WI AND NORTHERN IL. LESSER CAPE VALUES WILL
DEVELOP FARTHER WEST ACROSS NE/KS/CO, WITH PERHAPS 1000-1500 J/KG
MUCAPE.
DESPITE THE LARGER INSTABILITY OVER NORTHERN AREAS, FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. HOWEVER, AREAS OF UNCAPPED AIR MASS MAY
DEVELOP, POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WI. CONDITIONALLY, HAIL OVER 1.00" WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM IA INTO NORTHERN IL OVERNIGHT.
A GREATER PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL WILL EXIST FROM CO
INTO NE AS AN UPPER WAVE ALOFT TRAVELS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG HEATING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
SUPPORT AFTERNOON INITIATION NEAR THE FRONT RANGE, WITH CLUSTERS OF
STORMS PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE OUTFLOW, AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE. INITIAL ACTIVITY COULD ALSO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS EFFECTIVE SHEAR AVERAGES NEAR 45 KT.
..JEWELL.. 08/30/2026
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