031
ACUS02 KWNS 191734
SWODY2
SPC AC 191733
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOW ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES VICINITY ON MONDAY. SWATHS OF DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS.
..FROM IA ACROSS WI AND INTO UPPER MI
A SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A BROAD AREA OF
50-70 KT MIDLEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER, WITH OVER 100 KT AT 300 MB FROM MN INTO WI. COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO RESULT IN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVER 7 C/KM.
A FEW EARLY DAY STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OVER EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER
50 KT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE DAY, WITH NEW
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO WESTERN
UPPER MI, WI, AND NORTHERN IA.
INITIAL STORMS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE SUPERCELLS GIVEN SUCH STRONG
SHEAR. A CORRIDOR OF TORNADO RISK IS EVIDENT EAST OF THE INSTABILITY
AXIS FROM IA ACROSS WI AND INTO UPPER MI, AND EFFECTIVE SRH MAY
EXCEED 300 M2/S2. SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER WITH TIME, BUT ANY
RIGHTWARD MOVEMENT OFF THE HODOGRAPH MAY LEAD TO A LARGE INCREASE OF
EFFECTIVE SRH FOR SOME OF THE LARGER SUPERCELLS.
A CONDITIONAL RISK OF A STRONG TORNADO ALSO EXISTS FROM FAR
NORTHEAST IA ACROSS MUCH OF WI. HERE, 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL BE STRONG,
WITH 50 KT WINDS AT 700 MB. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE A VGP AT OR
ABOVE 0.4.
WITH TIME, SOME OF THE CELLS MAY BOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH CORRIDORS OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE.
..SOUTHERN VA INTO NC
DAYTIME HEATING, 70S F DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A WEAK
LOW WILL AID STORM FORMATION FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NC AFTER 20Z.
MLCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG, PWAT OVER 2.00", AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEAR
20 KT WILL LEAD TO MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
..JEWELL.. 07/19/2026
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