931
ACUS02 KWNS 021647
SWODY2
SPC AC 021645
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CST MON FEB 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
..EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
A LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY. MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY VICINITY, AS A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS VALLEY.
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN (DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR
60 F) IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THOUGH THE STRONGEST
FORCING WILL LIKELY BE DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE. GENERALLY WEAK TO MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
BUOYANCY (WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 500 J/KG),
BUT CONVECTION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT FROM PARTS OF EAST TX INTO
LA. ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF THE ARKLAMISS
REGION. THE WEAK BUOYANCY AND VERY MODEST ASCENT ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..DEAN.. 02/02/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page