929  
ACUS03 KWNS 260658  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 260658  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0158 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019  
 
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ON  
THURSDAY EVENING OR THURSDAY NIGHT BUT AN AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY MOVE  
EAST ON THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED BELT OF STRONG FLOW WILL EXTEND  
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE  
FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IN THE LOW LEVELS, A  
FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO WILL BECOME DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
GREAT LAKES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO A LOW/TRIPLE POINT OVER NORTHWEST  
OK. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL  
CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES F  
DEWPOINTS EAST OF A DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A STOUT CAPPING  
INVERSION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY  
IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE TRIPLE POINT.  
THURSDAY NIGHT STORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS MORE PROBABLE, BOTH IN AN  
UPSLOPE REGIME INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND NEAR/NORTH OF THE  
SURFACE FRONT, AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS. STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGER  
UPDRAFT CAPABLE OF HAIL GROWTH WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, BUT THE  
MARGINAL CHARACTER/LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES AN OUTLOOK AREA AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
..SMITH.. 03/26/2019  
 

 
 
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