539  
ACUS03 KWNS 230712  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 230711  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0211 AM CDT TUE OCT 23 2018  
 
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF  
COAST ON THURSDAY, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL  
GULF COAST EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. A WEAK/LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WILL  
INITIALLY CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND AN INITIAL SURGE OF  
WARM-AIR ADVECTION MAY YIELD ENOUGH ELEVATED BUOYANCY FOR A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA  
PANHANDLE. BEHIND THIS INITIAL IMPULSE, A SECONDARY, MORE AMPLIFIED  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN US THURSDAY NIGHT.  
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY 850MB FLOW AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY  
YIELD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA  
PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA.  
 
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND  
A LACK OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT NEAR THE COAST SHOULD PRECLUDE  
SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD RETURN OF SURFACE THETA-E, LIMITING  
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION. IN TURN, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT  
FORECAST, DESPITE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS.  
 
..PICCA.. 10/23/2018  
 

 
 
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