342
ACUS48 KWNS 170732
SWOD48
SPC AC 170731
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2025
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z
..DISCUSSION
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE DAY 4-8
PERIOD. HOWEVER, PROGRESSIVE, BUT LOW-AMPLITUDE WESTERLY NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE U.S. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR BOUTS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER, GIVEN SUBTLE
FORCING MECHANISMS, THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE
PROCESSES/FEATURES (MCVS FROM PRIOR CONVECTION, MODIFYING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES, ETC) THAT ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AT LONGER FORECAST TIMES.
AS SUCH, PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR DELINEATING AREAS AT THIS
TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 07/17/2025
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