352  
ACUS48 KWNS 150924  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 150923  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0323 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2019  
 
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN 80-90 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL  
MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON  
FRIDAY/D4 AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO OK AND AR. SOUTHERLY  
LOW-LEVELS WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE  
ARKLATEX BY FRIDAY EVENING, RESULTING IN UP TO 1000 J/KG MUCAPE  
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM TX INTO  
AR AND PARTS OF LA AS LARGE-SCALE LIFT SHIFTS EAST. GIVEN WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY, A RISK AREA WILL NOT BE  
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE  
POSSIBLE IN LATER OUTLOOKS FROM TX INTO SOUTHWEST AR.  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM AR INTO KY ON SATURDAY/D5, WITH 60S F  
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PRODUCING A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR  
MASS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA, MS, AND AL. AGAIN, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION  
COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A RISK AREA AT THIS  
TIME, BUT STRONG WIND PROFILES SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW-END WIND  
THREAT.  
 
BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM GETS TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY/D6,  
LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT ANY SEVERE  
WEATHER.  
 
..JEWELL.. 01/15/2019  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page