342  
ACUS48 KWNS 170732  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 170731  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0231 AM CDT THU JUL 17 2025  
 
VALID 201200Z - 251200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION  
 
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE DAY 4-8  
PERIOD. HOWEVER, PROGRESSIVE, BUT LOW-AMPLITUDE WESTERLY NORTHERN  
STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE ATOP THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
TIER OF THE U.S. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR BOUTS OF STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER, GIVEN SUBTLE  
FORCING MECHANISMS, THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE  
PROCESSES/FEATURES (MCVS FROM PRIOR CONVECTION, MODIFYING OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES, ETC) THAT ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AT LONGER FORECAST TIMES.  
AS SUCH, PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR DELINEATING AREAS AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
..LEITMAN.. 07/17/2025  
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