780
ACUS48 KWNS 070850
SWOD48
SPC AC 070848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT TUE MAY 07 2024
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
..DISCUSSION
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL ON DAY 4/FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
PARTS OF NORTH FL AND VICINITY ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY INCLUDING A 15% SEVERE AREA AT THIS
TIME. GENERALLY LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED ON DAY
5/SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA WHERE THE COLD FRONT STALLS.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ATTEMPT TO
RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND DAY
6/SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT, GENERALLY ZONAL
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION, WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST, SUGGESTS THAT WHATEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL
ULTIMATELY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY TEND TO REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED.
..GLEASON.. 05/07/2024
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