997
ACUS48 KWNS 060900
SWOD48
SPC AC 060859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SAT SEP 06 2025
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
..DISCUSSION
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN FROM NEXT TUESDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. A WESTERN TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WITHIN THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST WHILE A RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL FAVOR AT LEAST A NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE PLAINS. WHERE MODELS DIFFER IS WHEN STRONGER MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS SUGGESTS THIS COULD
HAPPEN LATE THIS COMING WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH
EJECTING MORE TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES,
SOME SEVERE RISK COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGH PLAINS/PLAINS NEAR
SURFACE BOUNDARIES OR WHERE SMALL SCALE PERTURBATIONS PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL ASCENT. GIVE THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THESE KEY
FEATURES, SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHHELD.
..WENDT.. 09/06/2025
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