352
ACUS48 KWNS 150924
SWOD48
SPC AC 150923
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2019
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
..DISCUSSION
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN 80-90 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL
MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY/D4 AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO OK AND AR. SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVELS WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
ARKLATEX BY FRIDAY EVENING, RESULTING IN UP TO 1000 J/KG MUCAPE
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM TX INTO
AR AND PARTS OF LA AS LARGE-SCALE LIFT SHIFTS EAST. GIVEN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY, A RISK AREA WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE IN LATER OUTLOOKS FROM TX INTO SOUTHWEST AR.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM AR INTO KY ON SATURDAY/D5, WITH 60S F
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PRODUCING A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA, MS, AND AL. AGAIN, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A RISK AREA AT THIS
TIME, BUT STRONG WIND PROFILES SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW-END WIND
THREAT.
BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM GETS TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY/D6,
LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER.
..JEWELL.. 01/15/2019
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