468
FNUS21 KWNS 151552
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VALID 151700Z - 161200Z
NEAR RECORD HEAT (FOR 15 NOVEMBER) IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS STRONG LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
EXCEEDING 15 MPH (WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE SWITCHING TO NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT) AMIDST MINIMUM RH VALUES OF LESS THAN 20% FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AREA WAS
INTRODUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA, AS LITTLE-TO-NO COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING, AND WHERE FUELS
ARE CRITICALLY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD (ERCS NEAR THE 80TH-90TH+
PERCENTILES) OWING TO ONGOING MODERATE-TO-SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
TODAY'S FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
..ELLIOTT.. 11/15/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0103 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED FOR TODAY
ACROSS THE COUNTRY, THOUGH LOCALIZED CONCERNS MAY EMERGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE REGION AND ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA. EARLY-MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT
BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH TODAY AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. WHILE BREEZY POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AN INFLUX OF COOLER AIR WILL LIMIT FIRE
CONCERNS FOR MOST REGIONS.
..TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
REACHING THE TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK BY AROUND MID-DAY WITH WESTERLY
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT AROUND 15 MPH. THE STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RH MINIMUMS TO FALL INTO
THE 15-20% RANGE AS DAYTIME HEATING WARMS AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR
MASS. IN GENERAL, THE OVERALL POST-FRONTAL WIND SIGNAL IS NOT OVERLY
STRONG PER RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS
RESIDING NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE OF THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE. HOWEVER,
SOLUTIONS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL MIXING HINT THAT SUSTAINED WINDS
COULD EXCEED 15 MPH FOR SOME LOCATIONS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. AS SUCH, AREAS OF TRANSIENT ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST TX.
..SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HELP MAINTAIN THE DRY COLUMN PRESENT IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS
NOTED IN RECENT FFC SOUNDINGS. DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THIS AIR MASS
SHOULD PROMOTE RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE 20-30% RANGE BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, MAY SUPPORT
LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM SOUTHERN GA INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN SC. WEAK GRADIENT WINDS UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH WILL LIMIT
WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR/UNDER 10 MPH AND PREVENT A MORE
ROBUST/WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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