735
FNUS21 KWNS 281632
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VALID 281700Z - 291200Z
THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATE WAS TO
ADD ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
HERE, THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WITH SURFACE FLOW, WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS MAY SUSTAIN
OVER 15 MPH IN SPOTS AMID 20-35 PERCENT RH. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, WITH RH ALREADY DROPPING TO 30 PERCENT AMID
20 MPH GUSTS IN SPOTS, AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY BE
EXACERBATED WITH CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
ABNORMALLY DRY/RECEPTIVE FUELS, THE ADDITION OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS
APPEARS WARRANTED.
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE ALSO EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DEPICTS
15+ MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS COINCIDING WITH 15-20
PERCENT RH FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, CENTRAL PLAINS, AND FLORIDA
(SEE BELOW) REMAINS ON TRACK.
..SQUITIERI.. 03/28/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0203 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH (ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW) ADVANCES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING INTO THE
STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD 10-15 PERCENT RH AND BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NM INTO SOUTHERN CO.
AS A RESULT, ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. A SEPARATE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS, WHILE A RELATED SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH,
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NE INTO SD -- WHERE ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FARTHER EAST, BREEZY EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA -- ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FL, A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE
BREEZY/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS -- GIVEN VERY DRY FUELS OVER THE AREA. OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY, MODESTLY BREEZY
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND AROUND 25-30 PERCENT RH MAY SUPPORT
LOCALIZED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE AFTERNOON; HOWEVER,
MARGINAL SURFACE WINDS AND RH CAST UNCERTAINTY ON THE OVERALL
LARGE-FIRE RISK -- PRECLUDING HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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