286  
FNUS21 KWNS 281654  
FWDDY1  
 
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1153 AM CDT THU SEP 28 2023  
 
VALID 281700Z - 291200Z  
 
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON  
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IN  
PARTICULAR, THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WERE  
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD -- WHERE A COMBINATION  
OF 10-15 PERCENT RH AND 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY  
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR ELEVATED TO SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS  
(GIVEN AT LEAST MODESTLY RECEPTIVE FINE FUELS). FOR ADDITIONAL  
DETAILS, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
..WEINMAN.. 09/28/2023  
   
PREV DISCUSSION  
/ISSUED 1259 AM CDT THU SEP 28 2023/  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS A STRONG  
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN  
CONUS.  
   
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN KANSAS  
 
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOTED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE PAST  
12 HOURS AS A LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF  
THE UPPER WAVE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,  
RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM WEST TX INTO WESTERN  
KS. THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PLUME OF  
RETURNING MOISTURE, AND ANY MOISTENING WILL LIKELY BE OFFSET BY  
STRONG DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGH  
PROBABILITY FOR RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE 20S. CONCURRENTLY, SUSTAINED  
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 15-20 MPH FROM THE OK PANHANDLE INTO  
WESTERN KS WHERE 14-DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE AROUND 5-10% OF  
SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED  
CRITICAL CONDITIONS, THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE  
TROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO  
MITIGATE FIRE CONCERNS.  
   
..UTAH, COLORADO, AND SOUTHERN WYOMING  
 
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WY  
WITH SEVERAL STATIONS REPORTING A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH  
AXIS, AND AN ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT, SLOWLY APPROACH THE  
REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM  
NORTHWEST AZ INTO UT AND SOUTHERN WY. A DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE  
ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD RH VALUES  
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. WHILE ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT  
MORE WIDESPREAD, THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO  
LOCATIONS WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS - NAMELY SOUTHERN WY INTO ADJACENT  
AREAS OF UT AND CO WHERE ERC VALUES ARE APPROACHING THE 80TH  
PERCENTILE.  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
 
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