948
FNUS21 KWNS 261619
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VALID 261700Z - 271200Z
..NORTHWEST ARIZONA
A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CA AND ASSOCIATED 997 MB
SURFACE LOW IN NV WILL BRING ENHANCED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS
15% WILL AFFECT MUCH OF EASTERN NV, WESTERN UT INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN
AZ. RECENT RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND NORTHWEST
AZ WILL HAVE A MITIGATING EFFECT ON FUEL RECEPTIVITY TODAY,
NECESSITATING A TRIMMING OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS FROM THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PLEASE SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
..WILLIAMS.. 05/26/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1257 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AS A BLOCKING RIDGE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
..GREAT BASIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PROMOTE A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF
AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT, SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND A DEEPLY MIXED AND DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SUPPORT RH REDUCTIONS OF 15-20%. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE AN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT AMID
CURED/DRYING FINE FUELS, PRIMARILY IN LOWER ELEVATION/MID-SLOPE
AREAS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS
BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE.
..NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND EXTREME WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN, PRONOUNCED LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MT. AS A RESULT,
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ACCELERATE TO 15-20 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHILE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL
SUPPORT RH REDUCTIONS TO 15-20% DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS
EASTERN MT. DELAYED GREEN UP AND EXISTING DRY FUELS ALIGN WITH THESE
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, MAINTAINING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS. AFTERNOON HEATING AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A PROMINENT DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND PWATS
OF 0.5-0.8", ALLOWING SOME THREAT OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE.
HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT GREEN-UP AND LESS RECEPTIVE FUELS MAY OTHERWISE
MITIGATE A BROADER ISODRYT THREAT.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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