286
FNUS21 KWNS 281654
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT THU SEP 28 2023
VALID 281700Z - 291200Z
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IN
PARTICULAR, THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WERE
EXPANDED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD -- WHERE A COMBINATION
OF 10-15 PERCENT RH AND 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL FAVOR ELEVATED TO SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
(GIVEN AT LEAST MODESTLY RECEPTIVE FINE FUELS). FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
..WEINMAN.. 09/28/2023
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1259 AM CDT THU SEP 28 2023/
..SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN KANSAS
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOTED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AS A LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER WAVE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM WEST TX INTO WESTERN
KS. THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PLUME OF
RETURNING MOISTURE, AND ANY MOISTENING WILL LIKELY BE OFFSET BY
STRONG DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE 20S. CONCURRENTLY, SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 15-20 MPH FROM THE OK PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN KS WHERE 14-DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE AROUND 5-10% OF
SEASONAL NORMALS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS, THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO
MITIGATE FIRE CONCERNS.
..UTAH, COLORADO, AND SOUTHERN WYOMING
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED YESTERDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WY
WITH SEVERAL STATIONS REPORTING A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS, AND AN ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT, SLOWLY APPROACH THE
REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM
NORTHWEST AZ INTO UT AND SOUTHERN WY. A DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD RH VALUES
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. WHILE ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD, THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS - NAMELY SOUTHERN WY INTO ADJACENT
AREAS OF UT AND CO WHERE ERC VALUES ARE APPROACHING THE 80TH
PERCENTILE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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