623  
FNUS21 KWNS 141618  
FWDDY1  
 
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1118 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020  
 
VALID 141700Z - 151200Z  
 
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW TO MID 90S F TEMPERATURES WITH  
RH VALUES NEAR OR BELOW ELEVATED THRESHOLDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN  
OKLAHOMA INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. RH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THIS  
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THE ELEVATED AREA IN THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS WAS EXPANDED TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL AND GUIDANCE  
TRENDS. WINDS MAY REMAIN AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH RH SLOW TO RECOVER  
EVEN AN HOUR OR TWO BEYOND SUNSET AS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET  
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING.  
   
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS
 
 
A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL UTAH TO NEAR THE  
UT/AZ BORDER. COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO INTRODUCE  
HIGHLIGHTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NEAR THE RATON MESA  
INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE AS WELL AS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE  
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORM INITIATION IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR  
THE RATON. AT LEAST INITIALLY, A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR  
OVER DRY FUELS IN THE PANHANDLE REGION, BUT WETTING RAINFALL BECOMES  
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS STORMS MOVE EAST. FARTHER SOUTH, STORM  
INITIATION IS TOO MUCH IN DOUBT EVEN WITH A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR  
DRY LIGHTNING.  
 
..WENDT.. 07/14/2020  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 0138 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020/  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE US IS FORECAST TO BECOME  
LESS PRONOUNCED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE OVERALL UPPER-AIR  
PATTERN TRENDS TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO  
DECREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN US IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH  
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST. FIRE WEATHER  
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN US WHERE  
RESIDUAL FLOW ALOFT AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS EXIST.  
   
..WESTERN US
 
 
WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING TROUGH BEGINNING TO DECREASE  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US, OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE  
TRENDING DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY. DESPITE THE DECREASE, MID-LEVEL FLOW  
WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL WINDS NEAR  
15-20 MPH. DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE  
WITH RH OF 10-15% BEING COMMON. THE RESIDUAL FLOW, DRY SURFACE  
CONDITIONS, AND VERY DRY FUELS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT  
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST THOUGH  
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED THAN RECENT DAYS.  
 
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE  
SOUTHWEST. A MIXED MODE OF WET AND DRY STORMS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN  
RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH. A FEW DRY  
STRIKES MAY DEVELOP BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF DRY STORMS IS LIKELY TOO  
LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY DRY THUNDER AREAS AT THIS TIME.  
   
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
 
 
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEHIND A SHARPENING LEE TROUGH/ DRYLINE.  
BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON, COINCIDENT WITH DIURNALLY MINIMUM RH NEAR 10%. FUELS  
ACROSS THE AREA ARE DRY AND RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD SUPPORTING  
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
   
..CALIFORNIA
 
 
VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY  
AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD SUPPORT VERY LOW  
RH BELOW 10% THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE OVERALL BACKGROUND  
WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, LOCALLY ELEVATED  
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 

 
 
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