009
FNUS22 KWNS 021850
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CST MON MAR 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
A SMALL PORTION OF THE ELEVATED AREA STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WAS REMOVED. LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL
NOT LIFT AS FAR TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY BEFORE SLIDING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT TOMORROW. HREF/REFS PROBABILITIES OF
FORECAST ELEVATED WINDS/RH WERE LESS THAN 15% IN THE REMOVED PORTION
OF THE ELEVATED AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE A MITIGATING FACTOR
TOMORROW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES. THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES, SOUTHEAST COLORADO, AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO DURING THE EVENING AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WILL LIMIT THE DURATION OF ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS WELL.
..NAUSLAR/STEARNS.. 03/02/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0202 AM CST MON MAR 02 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS
WILL EJECT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY, DEEPENING A LEE
LOW OVER EASTERN CO. A TRAILING DRYLINE AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
BOLSTER SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST BEHIND THE DRYLINE,
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS D2/TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AS THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD, MODERATE
HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEEPEN A
TRAILING LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN CO/NM INTO WESTERN TX/OK.
LEE SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN CO SHOULD SUPPORT
ENHANCED SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM, WEST TX AND
PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. WITH SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO
REACH 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON, DOWNSLOPING AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT LOW HUMIDITY BELOW 20%. OVERLAPPED WITH
AREAS OF ABUNDANT DRY FUELS AND RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY, SEVERAL HOURS
OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOME LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS (GUSTS 25-30 MPH) COULD DEVELOP WITH RH
FALLING BELOW 15% ACROSS THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NM FOR
A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE DURATION OF
SUSTAINED STRONGER WINDS BENEATH THE WEAKENING UPPER JET IS EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT AS THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH, A FEW HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE, AND AN UPGRADE COULD BE NEEDED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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