128
FNUS22 KWNS 051846
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES
MADE TO THE ISODRYT AND ELEVATED AREAS. A SCATTERED DRYT AREA WAS
CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND IN
NORTHEAST NEVADA/VICINITY, BUT THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE OVERLAP OF SUFFICIENT SCATTERED (40%+) COVERAGE,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AND RECEPTIVE FUELS TO PRECLUDE A SCATTERED DRYT
AREA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE HIGH-BASED DRIER
THUNDERSTORMS WITH FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1600 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ISODRYT AREA, WHILE DEEP PYROCONVECTION IS LIKELY ON
ACTIVE LARGE WILDFIRES.
THE ELEVATED AREA WAS EXPANDED BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
FORECAST GUIDANCE OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. LOCALLY ELEVATED WINDS/RH ARE
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHERN ARIZONA, AND EASTERN UTAH
INTO WESTERN COLORADO SURROUNDING THE ELEVATED AREA.
..NAUSLAR.. 07/05/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0144 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST,
GREAT BASIN, AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY - LARGELY DRIVEN BY DRY
THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS.
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE EARLY WEEK. CONTINUED NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD
ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A BROAD FETCH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WITH ADEQUATE BUOYANCY FOR WEAK CONVECTION,
PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES, AND VERY DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE REMAINS HIGHEST
ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OR AND ID WHERE A
SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOCUS ASCENT. MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY LOCALIZED
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. ACROSS BOTH REGIONS, THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
LARGELY FAVOR DRY LIGHTNING, BUT 10-15 KNOT STORM MOTIONS MAY ALLOW
FOR POCKETS OF WETTING RAINFALL. REGARDLESS, RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL
SUPPORT SOME CONCERN FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS - ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS WHERE CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DRY.
..SOUTHEAST NEVADA INTO UTAH AND ARIZONA
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A SWATH OF SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 MPH FROM
SOUTHERN NV INTO CENTRAL UT AND NORTHERN AZ. WITH A DRY AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE AND LITTLE TO NO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY
EXPECTED, RH MINIMUMS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE TEENS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VARIANCE AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REMAINS
SOMEWHAT HIGH REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF 15 MPH WINDS, RECENT
HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF SUSTAINED ELEVATED
CONDITIONS MAY EMERGE FROM SOUTHEAST NV INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF UT
AND AZ.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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