917
FNUS22 KWNS 171957
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL KANSAS TO FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...
A CRITICAL RISK AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
TO NORTH CENTRAL OK FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED TOWARDS STRONGER WINDS WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
WITH MOST SOLUTIONS SHOWING A SWATH OF 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS
FROM SOUTHERN NE INTO NORTHERN OK. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SEE RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE 15-20% RANGE BY LATE
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. LATEST ERCS ACROSS THIS REGION CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FUELS
ARE ONLY MODESTLY RECEPTIVE; HOWEVER, 4-INCH SOIL MOISTURE
PERCENTILES RANGE FROM 5-10% OF NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN KS
AND OK, SUGGESTING THAT DORMANT FINE FUELS MAY SEE RAPID DRYING THAT
COULD SUPPORT FIRE SPREAD. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
..MOORE.. 12/17/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1157 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
WITHIN A POST-COLD-FRONT REGIME, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD, BUT THIS SHOULD BE LAGGING BEHIND THE
FRONT.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY, GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE RH REDUCTIONS IN THE 20-30% RANGE. FARTHER
WEST, INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, 15-20% RH WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY WITH REGARD TO SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHERN EXTENT.
HOWEVER, SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS WILL TEND TO BE STRONGEST IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WEAKER WINDS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. WITH FINE
FUELS SHOWING SUFFICIENT DRYNESS IN SOME AREAS AND THE WINDS BEING
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH TEXAS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, BUT COMBINATIONS OF QUESTIONABLE FUELS AND
DURATION LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN EXPANDING HIGHLIGHTS INTO THESE AREAS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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