329
FNUS22 KWNS 141854
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED AREA ACROSS THE
TRANS-PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN ON ACCOUNT OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
TRENDS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
SURFACE TROUGH IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE TROUGH IS POSITIONED TOMORROW,
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK MAY BE MORE BRIEF THAN
ANTICIPATED. THESE STORMS SHOULD ALSO BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE
WETTING RAINFALL. ANY POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING IGNITED FIRES IS
CONDITIONAL ON STRIKES OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CORES.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER DRY FUELS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SIERRA REMAINS. STORM COVERAGE STILL APPEARS LOW AS
DOES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRIKES OUTSIDE OF WETTING RAIN CORES.
HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHHELD.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
..WENDT.. 07/14/2020
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0143 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MOSTLY ZONAL BY DAY2/WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL US. TO THE NORTH, WEAKENING WESTERLY FLOW WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. A
FEW AREAS OF LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US, WHERE MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW AND DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST
TEXAS BEHIND A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH DAY2/WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONG HEATING UNDER
THE WEAK RIDGE WILL HELP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 100 F,
AND SHOULD SUPPORT RH OF 10-15%. FUELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VERY DRY
AND RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD.
..SIERRAS INTO WESTERN NEVADA
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH DAY2/WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SIERRAS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. ANOMALOUSLY DRY FUELS
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH A MIXED MODE OF WET AND DRY STORMS. UNCERTAINTY IN
THE COVERAGE OF STRIKES OUTSIDE STORM CORES PRECLUDES THE ADDITION
OF ANY DRY THUNDER AREAS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page