329  
FNUS22 KWNS 141854  
FWDDY2  
 
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0154 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020  
 
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z  
 
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED AREA ACROSS THE  
TRANS-PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN ON ACCOUNT OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE  
TRENDS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE  
SURFACE TROUGH IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE TROUGH IS POSITIONED TOMORROW,  
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK MAY BE MORE BRIEF THAN  
ANTICIPATED. THESE STORMS SHOULD ALSO BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE  
WETTING RAINFALL. ANY POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING IGNITED FIRES IS  
CONDITIONAL ON STRIKES OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CORES.  
 
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER DRY FUELS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SIERRA REMAINS. STORM COVERAGE STILL APPEARS LOW AS  
DOES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRIKES OUTSIDE OF WETTING RAIN CORES.  
HIGHLIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITHHELD.  
 
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
..WENDT.. 07/14/2020  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 0143 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2020/  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MOSTLY ZONAL BY DAY2/WEDNESDAY AS A  
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND  
CENTRAL US. TO THE NORTH, WEAKENING WESTERLY FLOW WITH SEVERAL  
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. A  
FEW AREAS OF LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP  
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US, WHERE MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW AND DRY  
SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN.  
   
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
 
 
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WEST  
TEXAS BEHIND A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH DAY2/WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS ARE  
FORECAST TO REACH 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONG HEATING UNDER  
THE WEAK RIDGE WILL HELP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 100 F,  
AND SHOULD SUPPORT RH OF 10-15%. FUELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VERY DRY  
AND RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD.  
   
..SIERRAS INTO WESTERN NEVADA
 
 
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN IS  
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH DAY2/WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO  
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
SIERRAS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. ANOMALOUSLY DRY FUELS  
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS ACROSS  
THE AREA, WITH A MIXED MODE OF WET AND DRY STORMS. UNCERTAINTY IN  
THE COVERAGE OF STRIKES OUTSIDE STORM CORES PRECLUDES THE ADDITION  
OF ANY DRY THUNDER AREAS.  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 

 
 
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