898
FNUS22 KWNS 050816
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CST THU MAR 05 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO WESTERN TEXAS AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
..SYNOPSIS
SPLIT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS THROUGH D2/FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WHILE A CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPS OVER ARIZONA. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND VERY LOW RH VALUES BEHIND AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSING DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD.
...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AIDED BY A LEE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL OVERLAP VERY LOW RH
VALUES OF 10-15% BEHIND AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING DRYLINE, YIELDING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS, EASTERN
NEW MEXICO, AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20
MPH WILL OVERLAP VERY LOW RH VALUES OF 10-20%, SUPPORTING ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS NORTHWARD TO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES,
INCREASED RH, AND A SHARP SHIFT TO NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
EXTENTS OF ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE
PLACEMENT/MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT, RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONALLY,
CONVECTION FORECAST ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO SOME AREAS THAT COULD
REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF
ELEVATED/CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
..CHALMERS/LYONS.. 03/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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