603
FNUS22 KWNS 021943
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
TOMORROW'S (MONDAY) FIRE WEATHER FORECAST REMAINS ON-TRACK, WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AREA BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
..HIGH PLAINS
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERLAP MINIMUM RH
VALUES OF 15-20% AND CRITICALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERC VALUES NEAR OR
ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE) FROM TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS - FROM THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO, NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WHERE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND PEAK NEAR 25-30 MPH DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE,
THESE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE TOO SPOTTY TO UPGRADE TO CRITICAL AT
THIS TIME.
..WYOMING BASINS
METEOROLOGICAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SEVERAL HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE GREEN
RIVER BASIN AND VICINITY, AS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH OVERLAP
MINIMUM RH VALUES NEAR 10%. HOWEVER, THESE CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY
EXPECTED WHERE THE FUEL LOADS ARE LOW, PRECLUDING THE INTRODUCTION
OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA. NEVERTHELESS, LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE FUELS ARE MORE CONTINUOUS.
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH SHOULD OVERLAP
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-20% AND CRITICALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS ACROSS
THE WIND RIVER, BIGHORN, AND POWDER RIVER BASINS INTO NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING.
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WHILE LITTLE WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND
LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON PRECLUDES AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA AT
THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TOMORROW
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT (AS RH VALUES RECOVER), WITH A NEARBY
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT (SEE THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FOR MORE INFORMATION).
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON TOMORROW'S FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
..ELLIOTT.. 08/02/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0204 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH/GREAT PLAINS ON D2/MONDAY, WITH ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EASTWARD, EJECTING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN
THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS,
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SIMULTANEOUSLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH/GREAT PLAINS AND LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
BOTH WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AND PRECEDING THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS
ON SUNDAY.
..NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS
SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY (PERHAPS EVEN NORTHEASTERLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING) WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST
AMID MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-25% ACROSS EASTERN/NORTHERN WYOMING,
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA, THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TO THE
SOUTHWEST, WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
AND VERY LOW RH OF 10-15% ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA/CENTRAL IDAHO INTO NORTHERN UTAH, NORTHWESTERN COLORADO, AND
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING. TO THE SOUTH, SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
15-20 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-25% ARE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS PRECEDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION, FUELS ARE NOTED TO COMMONLY EXCEED
THE 80TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES (95TH PERCENTILE IN SOME LOCATIONS).
THIS COMBINATION OF METEOROLOGICAL AND FUEL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
THE STRONGEST. THE PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS OUTLOOK CYCLE WAS TO
EXPAND THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BASED ON RECENT HREF WIND/RH
PROBABILITY TRENDS. WHILE ELEVATED WIND/RH CRITERIA ARE LIKELY TO BE
MET FARTHER WEST INTO THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NM, GREATER RECENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS PRECLUDE AN
EXPANSION OF THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS INTO THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, INCLUDING NORTHERN COLORADO
ISOLATED, HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE HIGH-TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH LCLS OF 4+ KM AND PW OF
0.5-0.75". THESE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD
PRODUCE LIGHTNING WITH LITTLE WETTING RAINFALL. WHILE AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IGNITION MAY BE POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN MORE
THAN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERLAPPING DRIER, MORE RECEPTIVE
FUELS CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE OUTLOOK CYCLES, HOWEVER.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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