370  
FNUS22 KWNS 281946  
FWDDY2  
 
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0245 PM CDT THU SEP 28 2023  
 
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z  
   
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS  
 
AN ELEVATED AREA WAS ADDED FROM PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL KS  
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM. FROM KS INTO  
NORTHWEST OK, 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS (WITH  
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 MPH) WILL PRIMARILY SUPPORT A WIND-DRIVEN FIRE  
RISK GIVEN MARGINAL RH REDUCTIONS (25-30 PERCENT) ALONG THE WESTERN  
EDGE OF THE MORE-SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN. GIVEN  
THE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS, LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S TEMPERATURES, AND  
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL RH/FUELS, ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS ARE WARRANTED. FROM  
PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NORTHEAST NM, THE COMBINATION  
OF 10-15 PERCENT RH AND 15-20 MPH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS  
WILL ALSO FAVOR LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
ELSEWHERE, ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST  
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. FOR DETAILS, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  
BELOW.  
 
..WEINMAN.. 09/28/2023  
   
PREV DISCUSSION  
/ISSUED 0119 AM CDT THU SEP 28 2023/  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF  
SOUTHERN WY INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF UT AND CO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
EARLY-MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC  
DEPICTS TWO SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SECOND OF THESE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER  
THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE WEST COAST, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING  
MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE  
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS  
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. CONSEQUENTLY, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE  
FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE, BUT MAY BE PATCHY IN NATURE ACROSS  
THE REGION. THIS, COMBINED WITH GENERALLY UNRECEPTIVE FUELS FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS, LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF THE FIRE WEATHER  
THREAT. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WY, NORTHEAST UT, AND  
NORTHWEST CO SHOULD SEE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF ELEVATED CONDITIONS  
WITH DRY FUELS - ESPECIALLY AFTER SEVERAL PREVIOUS DAYS OF SIMILARLY  
DRY/WINDY WEATHER. ELSEWHERE, WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS  
KS AND SOUTHERN NE AS A LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WHILE  
20+ MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED, CONFIDENCE IN SUB-25% RH IS LIMITED DUE  
TO PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH. TRENDS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR FUEL DRYNESS AND THE QUALITY OF  
MOISTURE RETURN.  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
 
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