753
FNUS22 KWNS 031935
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CST FRI DEC 03 2021
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
..NO CRITICAL AREAS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
WITH THIS OUTLOOK. A PERIOD OF LOCALLY ENHANCED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH THE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF TO WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT ONLY A SMALL OVERLAP OF
BREEZY/GUSTY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND LOW RH, WITH THE STRONGER
SURFACE FLOW DISPLACED WESTWARD (ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN) FROM THE
BETTER DOWNSLOPE RELATED RH REDUCTIONS.
A MODEST OFFSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS AND LOW RH ACROSS TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE LOCALLY ENHANCED
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY, THE HIGHER THREAT APPEARS TO
BE ON SUNDAY AS THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
THEREFORE, NO DELINEATIONS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME.
..WEINMAN/MOORE.. 12/03/2021
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0115 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2021/
..SYNOPSIS
A STRONG NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ON SUNDAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING. WITHIN THE
GREAT BASIN, HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
DIGGING TROUGH.
..EASTERN WYOMING
TEMPERATURES IN THE SURROUNDING REGION MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OWING
THE RECENT COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP TO
WARM AND DRY THE AIRMASS IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE BIG HORNS AND
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WITH FUELS REMAINING DRY, LOCALLY ELEVATED
CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE. CONFIDENCE IN WINDS OF 15-25 MPH IS
RELATIVELY HIGH. CONFIDENCE IN BROADLY LOW RH IS NOT AS HIGH. WITH
CONDITIONS SO SPATIALLY LIMITED, NO HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE ADDED.
..SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TOWARDS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY. TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS COULD
SEE 15-25 MPH WITH RH OF 15-20%. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR
STRONGER GUSTS. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWS AN OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTH.
SUSTAINED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TOO
LOCALIZED TO WARRANT HIGHLIGHTS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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