104
FNUS22 KWNS 281848
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA.
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EMERGE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL COLORADO ROCKIES ON DAY 2/MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE RH OF 15% OR LESS WILL
COMBINE WITH SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. THIS
REGION DID HAVE SPORADIC AREAS OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL LAST WEEK;
HOWEVER, SEVERAL PRECEDING DAYS OF HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS
HAVE PRECONDITIONED FUELS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE RECEPTIVE
(90-99TH PERCENTILE ERCS). THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 06/28/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0138 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON D2/MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED, MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, WITH THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD IN
TANDEM WITH THIS FEATURE. A SECOND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
SIMULTANEOUSLY PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH
A PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS AND LINGERING ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW,
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EXPANSIVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST.
..SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO PIVOT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
SUPPORT SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AMID VERY
LOW RH VALUES OF 10-15%. SEVERAL DAYS OF ANTECEDENT DRY, WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE FUEL DRYNESS/RECEPTIVENESS
(WITH ERCS IN THE 80TH TO 95TH PERCENTILES OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION). THIS WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA, EASTERN UTAH, WESTERN
COLORADO, WESTERN NEW MEXICO, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WYOMING.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 30+ MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL COLORADO WHERE THE STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO OVERLAP A DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THIS OUTLOOK CYCLE TO
REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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