391
FNUS22 KWNS 250625
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
..SYNOPSIS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE
TO A STEADILY DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN CO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS REASONABLY
HIGH PROBABILITY FOR SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH WINDS WITH SOME
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING WINDS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL JET DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS MAY SUPPORT ENHANCED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, WHICH COULD MANIFEST
AT THE SURFACE AS 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS GIVEN AN
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS (DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW TEENS PER 06 UTC
OBSERVATIONS), AND THE EXPECTATION FOR INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
WARMING/DRYING. FORECAST CONSENSUS IS THAT RH MINIMUMS WILL REACH
THE MID TEENS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN PRECEDING DAYS OF
SINGLE-DIGIT RH MINIMUMS AND LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE RECOVERY
EXPECTED, RH VALUES WILL MOST LIKELY FALL INTO THE 5-15% RANGE
ACROSS EASTERN NM AND WESTERN TX.
THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS. LOCALIZED AREAS OF EXTREMELY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NM AND FAR
WESTERN TX; HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR SUSTAINED 30+ MPH
WINDS REMAIN LIMITED - LIKELY OWING TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET JUST PAST PEAK HEATING. REGARDLESS, RECEPTIVE FUELS
ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BASED ON INCREASING
ERC VALUES AND RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY, AND WILL SUPPORT THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN.
..MOORE.. 04/25/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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