117
FNUS22 KWNS 241920
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...
..GREAT BASIN
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS WERE MADE BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AFFECTING NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AS A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH RH
REDUCTIONS AS LOW AS 15% AND CURED/DRYING LOWER ELEVATION FUELS WILL
RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR SOUTHEASTERN OR AND
NORTHWESTERN NV ON MONDAY.
..SOUTHWEST
A MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY, BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER RECEPTIVE FUELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN AZ INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN AZ AND ADJACENT NM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH-BASED, WITH A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER SUPPORTING EVAPORATION OF NASCENT RAIN CORES. LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND
PROLONGED CONVECTIVE EVENT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NM AND FAR
EAST-CENTRAL AZ WHERE WETTING RAINS ARE MORE LIKELY, WITH LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.50" POSSIBLE. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN REMOVED BASED ON THESE HIGHER EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STILL BE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND FRINGES OF
THE DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN AZ/SOUTHWESTERN NM, WHERE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN.
..WILLIAMS.. 05/24/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0200 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON D2/MONDAY AS A SECOND MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK TROUGHING WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC BEFORE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN TANDEM WITH A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW.
..GREAT BASIN
A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF
20-25 MPH, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF
10-15% ALSO EXPECTED. RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY SUGGESTS THAT FUELS ARE
BECOMING MORE RECEPTIVE TO WILDFIRE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION. THUS,
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FROM NORTHWESTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHEASTERN OREGON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
OVERLAPPING REDUCED RH OF 15-25% WILL ALSO PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ADJACENT AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN.
..SOUTHWEST
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY ATOP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER PROFILES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED,
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM
0.4-0.7" (LOCALLY UP TO 1") AND MORE MARGINAL LCLS RANGING FROM 2-3+
KM AGL WILL LIKELY FAVOR A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
THAT FUELS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN QUITE DRY (ERCS AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE), ISOLATED LIGHTNING IGNITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THUS, THE
10% DRY THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
UPDATE.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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