370
FNUS22 KWNS 281946
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT THU SEP 28 2023
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
AN ELEVATED AREA WAS ADDED FROM PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL KS
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM. FROM KS INTO
NORTHWEST OK, 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS (WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 MPH) WILL PRIMARILY SUPPORT A WIND-DRIVEN FIRE
RISK GIVEN MARGINAL RH REDUCTIONS (25-30 PERCENT) ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE MORE-SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN. GIVEN
THE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS, LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S TEMPERATURES, AND
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL RH/FUELS, ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS ARE WARRANTED. FROM
PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NORTHEAST NM, THE COMBINATION
OF 10-15 PERCENT RH AND 15-20 MPH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL ALSO FAVOR LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ELSEWHERE, ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. FOR DETAILS, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW.
..WEINMAN.. 09/28/2023
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0119 AM CDT THU SEP 28 2023/
..SYNOPSIS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN WY INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF UT AND CO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY-MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
DEPICTS TWO SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SECOND OF THESE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE WEST COAST, RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. CONSEQUENTLY, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE, BUT MAY BE PATCHY IN NATURE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS, COMBINED WITH GENERALLY UNRECEPTIVE FUELS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WY, NORTHEAST UT, AND
NORTHWEST CO SHOULD SEE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF ELEVATED CONDITIONS
WITH DRY FUELS - ESPECIALLY AFTER SEVERAL PREVIOUS DAYS OF SIMILARLY
DRY/WINDY WEATHER. ELSEWHERE, WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
KS AND SOUTHERN NE AS A LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WHILE
20+ MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED, CONFIDENCE IN SUB-25% RH IS LIMITED DUE
TO PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR FUEL DRYNESS AND THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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