702  
FNUS22 KWNS 200641  
FWDDY2  
 
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0140 AM CDT WED MAR 20 2019  
 
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z  
   
..NO CRITICAL AREAS
 
 
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON DAY 2/THURSDAY. A  
BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER  
MUCH OF SOUTHERN AZ/NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SMALL AREA OF  
STRONG/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS MAY OVERLAP RH VALUES BELOW 20% ACROSS  
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN AZ AND SOUTHWESTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
HOWEVER, LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL LACK OF FUEL RECEPTIVENESS  
ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE THEREFORE NOT INTRODUCED AN ELEVATED AREA.  
 
A SEPARATE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH  
THE DAY, WITH ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF  
THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP  
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAK TRAILING  
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND  
GA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR  
SURFACE WINDS UP TO 15 MPH TO OVERLAP RH VALUES OF 25-35% ACROSS  
PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN GA AND NORTHERN FL THURSDAY AFTERNOON,  
WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY ELEVATED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.  
FOR NOW, FUEL DRYNESS APPEARS MARGINAL TO SUPPORT LARGE FIRE STARTS,  
AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY STRONG.  
HAVE THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE AN ELEVATED AREA ACROSS THIS  
REGION AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH ONE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE  
INTRODUCED IF FORECAST WIND SPEEDS STRENGTHEN ANY FURTHER.  
 
..GLEASON.. 03/20/2019  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 

 
 
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