296
FNUS22 KWNS 161930
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
INCREASING MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVES EAST. AT
THE SURFACE, AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER WILL INFILTRATE THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO REDUCED BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING SUPPORTING ELEVATED OVERNIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
POOR RH RECOVERIES (PERHAPS STAYING BELOW 30%) LEADING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES,
SOUTHEASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS. THESE PRECONDITIONED FUELS, ALREADY
QUITE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD, COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 MPH AND RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING, WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY FROM A
QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION IN SOUTHEASTERN CO AND SOUTHERN KS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ITS POTENTIAL
IMPACT TO ONGOING FIRES, WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER, HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT GENERALLY
PROMOTING AN IMPROVED FIRE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING CRITICAL AND ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THIS REGION BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
..CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
FRIDAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
SUPPORT DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH.
ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED, WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, PERSISTENTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND EXPANDING DROUGHT HAVE
LED TO EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
OF AROUND 25-30% IS EXPECTED IN DOWNSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN THE LEE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SLIGHT EASTWARD EXPANSION OF ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS WAS MADE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF VA AND NC.
..WILLIAMS.. 04/16/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0206 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND DEEPEN FRIDAY AS
AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX INTENSIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL EXIT THE EASTERN U.S. SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME LINGERING DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS.
..TX/NM
AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO EJECT
EASTWARD, STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN CO IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, DRAGGING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS, BOLSTERED BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN NM, INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY MID MORNING. GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WARM TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT
RH MINIMUMS BELOW 15%. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY WITHIN DRY FUELS.
FARTHER NORTH, GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN KS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RH VALUES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL. BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE FUELS HAVE REMAINED DRY. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO TX/OK/NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A RAPID WIND SHIFT WHICH
COULD LOCALLY EXACERBATE BURNING CONDITIONS BRIEFLY. ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL AREAS COULD ALSO BE
NECESSARY AS UNCERTAINTY ON FRONTAL TIMING IS REDUCED IN SUBSEQUENT
UPDATES.
..CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, FLOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER MUCH OF THE APPALACHIANS. STILL, RESIDUAL
WESTERLY FLOW MAY ENCOURAGE LEE TROUGHING, HELPING TO BOLSTER
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO NEAR 10 MPH. WITH VERY WARM/DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING, LOW AFTERNOON
RH IS EXPECTED. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH NO RECENT RAINFALL AND
CRITICAL FUELS, SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM VA, INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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