029
FNUS22 KWNS 151935
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS EASTERN
CO INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH (GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH) AMID 10-15
PERCENT RH (SINGLE DIGITS LOCALLY) ARE EXPECTED ATOP VERY DRY AND
RECEPTIVE FUELS, INCREASING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WHILE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, ONGOING POOR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ON DAY 1/WEDNESDAY
WILL PROMOTE AN EARLIER START TO THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT ON DAY
2/THURSDAY. FARTHER NORTH, ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS. WIDESPREAD SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF UP TO 20 MPH AND RH OF 15-20 PERCENT WILL OVERSPREAD A
REGION OF 80TH-95TH PERCENTILE ERCS. AN ABRUPT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
IS EXPECTED AS A SHARP COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
EARLY EVENING, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ACTIVE FIRES. HOWEVER, CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING RH WILL
PROVIDE RELIEF TO THE FIRE ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..MID-ATLANTIC/PIEDMONT
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED TO ONLY INCLUDE AREAS EAST OF
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AS LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHER
RH TRENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN TN VALLEY. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS MULTIPLE DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO VERY DRY
FUELS WITH WIDESPREAD 90TH-99TH PERCENTILE ERCS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 10 MPH OR GREATER (GUSTS OF 20+ MPH) AND 25-35 PERCENT RH WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA/WILLIAMS.. 04/15/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1255 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/FOUR
CORNERS ON THURSDAY. A MODEST SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLACK
HILLS. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
..SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS REGION WILL GENERALLY EXIST IN BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERN
STREAM JET AND THE DIGGING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY OCCUR BY LATE
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED. RH COULD
APPROACH SINGLE DIGITS LOCALLY, BUT WILL MORE BROADLY BE 10-20%.
THIS IS FORECAST DESPITE INCREASING MID/UPPER CLOUDS WITH TIME. THE
OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED CRITICAL COULD OCCUR LOCALLY, BUT CONFIDENCE
HIGHLIGHTING WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR REMAINS LOW.
..FAR EASTERN WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS, WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. RH
VALUES OF 10-20% WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FARTHER WEST OF THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
FURTHER, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A STARK SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND GREATER RH. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, THE MORE SOUTHERN FRONTAL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
WEIGHTED HIGHER IN THIS FORECAST.
..SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO MID-ATLANTIC
THE PERSISTENT DRY RETURN FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S F WILL AGAIN PROMOTE A BROAD
AREA OF REDUCED RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. 25-35% WILL AGAIN BE
COMMON, BUT AREAS NEAR 20% ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT WEAK AT 10-15 MPH, BUT VERY DRY FUELS WILL STILL SUPPORT A
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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