918
FNUS54 KMEG 280830
FWFMEG
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR THE MIDSOUTH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
330 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
DISCUSSION
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO NEAR
OR BELOW 30% AREAWIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO PLACE A 40% - 50% FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI, EASTERN ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE TO SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW 20%. GIVEN THAT OBSERVATIONS
SUNDAY SHOWED MANY AREAS ACROSS THE REGION DROPPING TO 20% OR
BELOW, IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SAME GUIDANCE ALSO DISPLAYS A SIMILAR
FORECAST TUESDAY. ON TOP OF THE DRY AIR, 10-HOUR FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TO NEAR 10% MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WETTING RAINS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEREFORE, FIRE DANGER REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
UNTIL MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED LATER THIS WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE AT WETTING RAINS IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS LATER
THIS WEEK WHERE CHANGES IN TIMING FOR THE ONSET AND MAGNITUDE OF
ANY WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED.
ARZ009-018-026>028-MOZ113-115-282100-
CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-DUNKLIN-GREENE-MISSISSIPPI-PEMISCOT-POINSETT-
330 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0
PRECIP CHANCE (%)
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE NONE
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION (HRS)
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
TEMP (24H TREND) 82 (+1) 54 (-5) 85
RH % (24H TREND) 26 (-5) 84 (+8) 30
AM WIND 20FT (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
PM WIND 20FT (MPH) NE 4 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
MIXING HGT(M-AGL) 1400 1700
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 4500 5700
MIXING HGT(M-MSL) 1500 1800
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL) 4800 6000
TRANSPORT WND (M/S) NE 4 SE 3
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) NE 8 SE 6
VENT INDEX (M2/S) 6000 5400
CATEGORY DAY 3 3
500M MIX HGT TEMP (F) 75 78
500M TSPT WIND (M/S) NE 4 SE 3
500M TSPT WIND (MPH) NE 9 SE 6
DISPERSION INDEX 24 8 15
STABILITY CLASS B F B
STAGNATION INDEX 3 3 3
REMARKS...NONE.
FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 90. MINIMUM RH
41 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S. MINIMUM RH 53 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 80.
MINIMUM RH 70 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. MINIMUM RH 73 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SUNDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. MINIMUM RH 76 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
ARZ035-036-048-049-058-282100-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS-
330 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0
PRECIP CHANCE (%)
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE NONE
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION (HRS)
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
TEMP (24H TREND) 85 (0) 57 (-4) 88
RH % (24H TREND) 21 (-3) 73 (+7) 28
AM WIND 20FT (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
PM WIND 20FT (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
MIXING HGT(M-AGL) 1600 2000
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 5300 6600
MIXING HGT(M-MSL) 1700 2100
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL) 5500 6800
TRANSPORT WND (M/S) NE 4 SE 3
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) NE 8 SE 6
VENT INDEX (M2/S) 6800 6300
CATEGORY DAY 3 3
500M MIX HGT TEMP (F) 77 81
500M TSPT WIND (M/S) NE 5 SE 4
500M TSPT WIND (MPH) NE 11 SE 8
DISPERSION INDEX 24 9 15
STABILITY CLASS B F B
STAGNATION INDEX 3 3 3
REMARKS...NONE.
FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. MINIMUM RH
40 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 90.
MINIMUM RH 50 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. MINIMUM RH 64 PERCENT. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80.
MINIMUM RH 68 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SUNDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. MINIMUM RH 72 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
TNZ001>004-019>022-282100-
BENTON TN-CARROLL-DYER-GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-
330 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0
PRECIP CHANCE (%)
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE NONE
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION (HRS)
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
TEMP (24H TREND) 80 (+1) 53 (-1) 84
RH % (24H TREND) 28 (-5) 91 (+3) 30
AM WIND 20FT (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
PM WIND 20FT (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
MIXING HGT(M-AGL) 1300 1700
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 4300 5500
MIXING HGT(M-MSL) 1400 1800
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL) 4700 5900
TRANSPORT WND (M/S) NE 4 SE 2
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) NE 8 SE 5
VENT INDEX (M2/S) 5600 3600
CATEGORY DAY 3 2
500M MIX HGT TEMP (F) 73 75
500M TSPT WIND (M/S) NE 3 SE 2
500M TSPT WIND (MPH) NE 7 SE 6
DISPERSION INDEX 19 7 14
STABILITY CLASS B F B
STAGNATION INDEX 3 3 3
REMARKS...NONE.
FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. MINIMUM RH
38 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. MINIMUM RH
50 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FRIDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. MINIMUM RH 67 PERCENT. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. MINIMUM RH 73 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SUNDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. MINIMUM RH 79 PERCENT. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
TNZ048>055-088>091-282100-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-
LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON-
330 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0
PRECIP CHANCE (%)
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE NONE
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION (HRS)
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
TEMP (24H TREND) 82 (+1) 53 (-3) 85
RH % (24H TREND) 24 (-5) 84 (+4) 28
AM WIND 20FT (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
PM WIND 20FT (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
MIXING HGT(M-AGL) 1400 1900
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 4600 6100
MIXING HGT(M-MSL) 1500 2000
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL) 5000 6500
TRANSPORT WND (M/S) NE 3 SE 2
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) NE 7 SE 5
VENT INDEX (M2/S) 4500 4000
CATEGORY DAY 3 3
500M MIX HGT TEMP (F) 74 77
500M TSPT WIND (M/S) NE 4 SE 2
500M TSPT WIND (MPH) NE 8 SE 5
DISPERSION INDEX 19 7 13
STABILITY CLASS B F B
STAGNATION INDEX 3 3 3
REMARKS...NONE.
FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. MINIMUM RH
38 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 90. MINIMUM RH 49 PERCENT.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. MINIMUM RH 64 PERCENT. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. MINIMUM RH 69 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SUNDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. MINIMUM RH 75 PERCENT. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020-021-282100-
COAHOMA-DESOTO-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-YALOBUSHA-
330 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0
PRECIP CHANCE (%)
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE NONE
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION (HRS)
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
TEMP (24H TREND) 86 (-1) 57 (-4) 88
RH % (24H TREND) 21 (-1) 74 (+9) 28
AM WIND 20FT (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
PM WIND 20FT (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
MIXING HGT(M-AGL) 1600 1900
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 5300 6200
MIXING HGT(M-MSL) 1700 2000
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL) 5600 6500
TRANSPORT WND (M/S) NE 3 SE 2
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) NE 7 SE 5
VENT INDEX (M2/S) 5100 4000
CATEGORY DAY 3 3
500M MIX HGT TEMP (F) 78 80
500M TSPT WIND (M/S) NE 4 SE 4
500M TSPT WIND (MPH) NE 9 SE 8
DISPERSION INDEX 19 8 13
STABILITY CLASS B F B
STAGNATION INDEX 3 3 3
REMARKS...NONE.
FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. MINIMUM RH
41 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. MINIMUM RH
51 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. MINIMUM RH 64 PERCENT. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. MINIMUM RH 68 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SUNDAY
SHOWERS LIKELY. MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 80. MINIMUM
RH 74 PERCENT. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
MSZ002>006-009-013>017-022>024-282100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-
330 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
TODAY TONIGHT TUE
CLOUD COVER CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR
CHANCE OF THUNDER (%) 0 0 0
PRECIP CHANCE (%)
PRECIP TYPE NONE NONE NONE
PRECIP AMOUNT 0.00 0.00 0.00
PRECIP DURATION (HRS)
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
TEMP (24H TREND) 85 (0) 54 (-3) 87
RH % (24H TREND) 22 (0) 81 (+11) 26
AM WIND 20FT (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
PM WIND 20FT (MPH) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR
MIXING HGT(M-AGL) 1500 1800
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL) 4800 5800
MIXING HGT(M-MSL) 1600 1900
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL) 5200 6200
TRANSPORT WND (M/S) NE 3 E 2
TRANSPORT WND (MPH) NE 6 E 5
VENT INDEX (M2/S) 4800 3800
CATEGORY DAY 3 2
500M MIX HGT TEMP (F) 76 78
500M TSPT WIND (M/S) NE 3 E 2
500M TSPT WIND (MPH) NE 8 E 5
DISPERSION INDEX 15 7 12
STABILITY CLASS B F B
STAGNATION INDEX 3 3 3
REMARKS...NONE.
FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. MINIMUM RH
38 PERCENT. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 90. MINIMUM RH 50 PERCENT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. MINIMUM RH 61 PERCENT. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. MINIMUM RH 67 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SUNDAY
SHOWERS LIKELY. MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
MINIMUM RH 75 PERCENT. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
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