293
FNUS74 KMEG 191054
FWSMEG
SPOT FORECAST FOR HS BB 72 IU 1 & 2...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
454 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 CST ON JANUARY 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE TRANSPORT WINDS DEVELOPING
BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY,
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 3000 FEET AROUND THE NOON HOUR.
WE EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN ABOVE 30% THIS
AFTERNOON, EVEN WITH VERY DRY IN PLACE.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............15 DECREASING TO 11 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING
LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).300-3400 FT MSL.
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...91-1036 METERS AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.NORTHWEST 3 TO 7 METERS/SECOND.
2000 FT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 13 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 9 TO 12
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
5000 FT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 20 TO 23 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 17
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (300 KNOT-FT).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........3 5 2 7 19 21 30 43 62 72 70 63
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............24 24 26 32 35 38 39 40 40 40 38 36
DEWPOINT........14 14 15 16 17 17 16 15 14 13 12 11
RH..............65 65 63 51 47 42 39 36 34 33 34 35
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW N N N NW NW NW NW N N
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 3
20 FT WIND GUST.6 7 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 2.2 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.2
MX HT MSL (KFT).0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 2.2 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.2
MIX HGT (KM)....0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW N N N N NW NW NW N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 6 10 14 14 14 15 15 14 13 10
TRANS WIND DIR..NW NW N N N N NW NW NW N N N
TRANS SPD (M/S).3 3 3 4 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 4
2000 FT WND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N N
2000 FT WND SPD.15 13 10 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 12 12
5000 FT WND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
5000 FT WND SPD.23 22 21 20 17 16 15 15 15 16 16 17
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 0 0 1 4 5 6 7 7 6 5 3
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 19.
MAX HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............9 DECREASING TO 6 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).400-600 FT MSL.
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...122-183 METERS AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.NORTH 2 TO 4 METERS/SECOND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 2 METERS/SECOND EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
2000 FT WINDS.......NORTH 6 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 12 MPH
OVERNIGHT.
5000 FT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 15 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (200 KNOT-FT).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........65 59 42 45 38 27 30 22 17 12 7 8
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............34 31 30 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 21
DEWPOINT........10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 6
RH..............36 41 44 46 48 48 50 52 52 52 54 52
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N NE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
MX HT MSL (KFT).0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 5 5
TRANS WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N NE
TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2
2000 FT WND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N
2000 FT WND SPD.10 9 7 6 5 5 6 8 10 12 12 10
5000 FT WND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW W W NW NW NW NW NW
5000 FT WND SPD.17 16 16 15 15 16 17 17 17 17 17 16
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
MIN HUMIDITY........22 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............8 INCREASING TO 13 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).400-2200 FT MSL.
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...122-671 METERS AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5 TO 8
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHEAST 2 TO 4 METERS/SECOND.
2000 FT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 8 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST 7 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO SOUTH 12 TO 14 MPH LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
5000 FT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 13 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 7 TO 10
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST 7 TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (200 KNOT-FT).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........9 5 4 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............20 19 23 29 34 38 42 44 45 45 43 41
DEWPOINT........9 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 10 12 14 15
RH..............62 59 50 40 33 27 23 22 24 26 30 34
20 FT WIND DIR..E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S SE
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.4 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.0
MX HT MSL (KFT).0.4 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.6 1.0
MIX HGT (KM)....0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E SE SE SE S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8
TRANS WIND DIR..E E E E SE SE SE S S S S S
TRANS SPD (M/S).1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4
2000 FT WND DIR.N NE NE E E SE SE SE SE S S S
2000 FT WND SPD.9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 12 14
5000 FT WND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W SW SW
5000 FT WND SPD.15 13 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FORECASTER...CHIUPPI
REQUESTED BY...JACOB SHULER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2600465.0/MEG
.DELDT 01/19/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JOHN.TOWNSEND@USDA.GOV,JACOB.SHULER@USDA.GOV
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