412
FXUS64 KMEG 120502
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1202 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ON SOME DAYS.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING THE 90S, APPROXIMATELY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION.
- LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS FAVOR A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IMPACTING THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST. BUILDING
BEHIND THIS LOW IS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE TWO MAIN UPPER
FEATURES, THE MID-SOUTH IS SITUATED UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS MEANS COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK. DUE TO A FRONTAL
PASSAGE, THE DRY AIR, WHICH IS A RESULT OF A RECENT FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WILL PROMOTE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY STAY LIGHT. WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON
ANY MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL IMPINGE ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS NORTHWEST TN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD AND
SLIDE EAST OVER THE COMING DAYS ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
90 DEGREE DAYS TO BE FELT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE LOW
PROBABILITIES (FROM THE LREF) FOR 90 DEGREES BEING FELT ACROSS
DELTA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR 90-DEGREE
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO MEDIUM TO HIGH AND ARE EXPECTED TO COVER
A WIDER AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH 90S IN THE FORECAST,
THIS IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR AREAS LIKE MEMPHIS
AND TUPELO.
DESPITE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FAVOR 33-50% CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH OF THE OUTLOOK PERIODS. ENJOY THE RAINFREE
WEATHER FOR NOW, AS A WET PATTERN WILL EMERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
ALLOWING FOR VFR AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. ANY WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY UP
UNTIL 00Z BEFORE DROPPING TO VRB/CALM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
AMD NOT SKED AT JBR DUE TO MISSING METAR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MINRH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 40%, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW 30% EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AS SUCH, SOME BORDERLINE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS MAY ARISE. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
AS WELL.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JAB
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