707
FXUS64 KMEG 010422
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1122 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH.
- A NOTABLE PATTERN SHIFT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER, SEASONAL WEATHER IS FORECAST BY
NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THIS EVENING'S UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURES A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER, AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL BRING ANOTHER HOT AND
MAINLY DRY DAY TO THE MID-SOUTH WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ABOUT TO END AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN INTO A POSITIVELY-TILTED OPEN WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS LIFT
OCCURS WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPARTING NORTHERN
STREAM JET STREAK. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT SOUTH OF I-
40 ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH BEST UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
DEPARTING THE REGION. WEAK SHEAR OVERALL (<25 KTS) COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SECOND
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. RAINFALL TOTALS
REMAIN LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AVERAGING
LESS THAN 1 INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, AND VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5
INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD SOUTH. THIS PROJECTED RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ALLEVIATE THE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL DEFICITS THAT ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN COOLER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH FOR EARLY OCTOBER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS FAVORED LOCATIONS IN
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ABOVE 7 KTS OVERNIGHT AT MEM WITH SOME
COMPRESSION ISSUES POSSIBLE AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-14
KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT MEM AND JBR ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER
IN THE 40 TO 50% RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CJC
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