134  
FXUS64 KMEG 142338  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
638 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 313 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
IT IS A BEAUTIFUL FRIDAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. CURRENT  
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 70S AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION  
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE  
40S TO LOW 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY SATURDAY.  
 
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY BUT GIVEN  
THE DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, CAMS  
(CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS) DO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR  
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS  
SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS ON  
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE  
WILL APPROACH THE MID-SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE  
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE NORTH OF I-40 EARLY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY  
DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FARTHER TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE COULD  
BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER NORTH OF I-40. THE REST OF THE AREA  
WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY.  
 
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE STORY FOR NEXT WEEK. A  
STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY  
MOVE TO THE EAST WHILE RIDGING SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES MORE  
AMPLIFIED. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH AHEAD OF THE  
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY  
BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER BACK AND NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE  
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORKWEEK. MONDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR  
FOCUSED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS A DISTURBANCE LIFTS  
TO THE NORTHEAST. MAINTAINED HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE LATTER  
HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND AMPLIFICATION  
OF RIDGING TO THE EAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO  
BE MONITORED.  
 
17  
 
AVIATION...  
 
EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS  
WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY MORNING, IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH  
MOVING THROUGH THE COUNTRY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO  
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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