351
FXUS64 KMEG 190454
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AGAIN ON SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 105 AND 109 F. THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE
COOLING OR AIR CONDITIONING WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.
- THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY. ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES AND POTENTIAL EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE HIGHLY
LIKELY.
- RELIEF ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH,
DROPPING HEAT INDICES BELOW 100F FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THE MID-SOUTH REMAINS UNSEASONABLY WARM TONIGHT WITH 11 PM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-80S. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NW TENNESSEE, SUPPORTED
BY BROAD NW FLOW BETWEEN A GREAT BASIN RIDGE AND AN OHIO VALLEY
TROUGH. WEAK SHEAR AND CAPPING WILL KEEP ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
SUB-SEVERE.
SUNDAY WILL BE HOT AS THE RIDGE PERSISTS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM, WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING BETWEEN 105-
109F BEFORE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASED AFTERNOON STORM
COVERAGE, PARTICULARLY IN NE ARKANSAS, W TENNESSEE, AND NE
MISSISSIPPI.
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID-90S TO NEAR 100F. HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 105F DAILY, WITH A
GROWING POTENTIAL FOR >109F ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS PROLONGED
HEAT EVENT WILL PEAK TUESDAY AS CUMULATIVE EFFECTS MOUNT.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY ON BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
RELIEF ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, DROPPING
HEAT INDICES BELOW 100F FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. DIURNAL HEATING WILL INTRODUCE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON -TSRA, PARTICULARLY IMPACTING JBR, MKL, AND
TUP. DUE TO ISOLATED COVERAGE, PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED
TO HANDLE THESE CONVECTIVE WINDOWS. CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS REMAINS LOW AT AROUND 20% FOR MEM, WHERE
STRONGER CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SUSTAIN A WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECOUPLING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNDOWN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS AMPLE MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND 20FT WINDS STAY BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ001-007-008-
010>012-020.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019-
020-048>051-088-089.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AC3
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