795
FXUS64 KMEG 021730
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1230 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, WEST
TENNESSEE, AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT AREA WIDE.
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE ON
THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST
TENNESSEE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
MORE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS ON THE WAY TODAY AS THE STRONG 500 MB
RIDGE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE EASTERN CONUS WITH DREADFUL LEVELS
OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY. MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY SOARED
INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO BETWEEN 95 F AND 100 F THROUGH THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH AMPLE
DIURNAL MIXING, DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 F IN MOST PLACES,
LEADING TO HEAT INDICES WELL ABOVE 105 F. MOST OF THE REGION,
APART FROM NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI, ARE LIKELY TO SEE HEAT
INDICES CLIMB JUST ABOVE 110 F. AS SUCH, WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THESE AREAS WHILE MAINTAINING A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.
THE WEAK UPPER SYSTEM THAT AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF YESTERDAY
EVENINGS' THUNDERSTORMS HAS MANAGED TO MAKE IT JUST A BIT FURTHER
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW PLACES IT
OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD BY 17Z. THIS
FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT PRECEDED THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION YESTERDAY WHERE INCREASINGLY AGITATED CUMULUS DEVELOPS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, EVENTUALLY GROWING INTO CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
THAT TRAVEL WEST. THE 12Z NASHVILLE UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM, CAPE EXCEEDING
3500 - 4000 J/KG, AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 10 -
20 KNOTS. THIS PARAMETER SPACE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH DCAPE >
1200 J/KG, WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF POWERFUL THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM JUST EAST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING THIS THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WEST INTO PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.
OUTFLOW FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING, QUICKLY BRINGING TEMPERATURES
DOWN FROM THEIR PEAK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL END AT 8 P.M. WITH AN
AREA-WIDE HEAT ADVISORY TAKING ITS PLACE THEREAFTER.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, HIGH HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
FRIDAY ALONGSIDE HEAT INDICES IN BETWEEN 105 F - 109 F. AGAIN,
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT FORCING
WILL BE NEBULOUS AND LIKELY DEPENDENT ON TODAY'S CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION. SO, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO WEDNESDAY AND TODAY ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE IN PLACE
OTHERWISE, WHICH WOULD LEND SOME CREDIBILITY TO A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT IF STORMS ARE TO DEVELOP. ANY STORMS WILL IMPACT THE
EXTENT TO WHICH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE ABLE TO CLIMB AND HAS
KEPT US FROM LEANING TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE THAT WOULD SUGGEST
THE NEED FOR AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND INSTEAD KEPT THE AREA IN
AN AREA-WIDE HEAT ADVISORY FRIDAY.
THIS DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM AND OPPRESSIVE HEAT PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN THE AREA-WIDE HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN ON THE 4TH OF JULY
WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 F - 109 F AND POTENTIAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WILL HAVE
BALLOONED AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST GIVEN TWO DAYS OF
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO THE FORECAST. SO, IT IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN ANY EXACT LOCATIONS THAT WOULD BE IMPACTED
BY THUNDERSTORMS DURING HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH
OF THE SAME, BUT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BEGINNING TO DROP NEAR 105 F ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS, WE HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND THIS
WEEKEND'S HEAT ADVISORY INTO SUNDAY AND WILL WAIT UNTIL FUTURE
FORECAST PERIODS AS THE FORECAST BECOMES CLEARER.
BY MONDAY, MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 500 MB RIDGE WEAKENING BELOW
594 DM AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR 90 F. WHILE SOME
AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA IN EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, COULD STILL REACH THE 105 F
HEAT INDEX NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY, MOST OF THE REGION WILL
FALL BELOW THIS LEVEL. THAT BEING SAID, THE HEAT MAY NOT BE LESS
OPPRESSIVE AS THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION TO HAVE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. LASTLY, WITH LOWER UPPER HEIGHTS AND HIGH SURFACE
HUMIDITY, AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
12Z HI-RES MODELS POINT TOWARD TSRAS DEVELOPING OVER MIDDLE TN
AND NORTH AL AND SPREADING WEST INTO WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUED PROB30 GROUPS AT MEM,
MKL, AND TUP FOR TSRAS. USED PERSISTENCE ALONG WITH THE LATEST HI-
RES MODELS AND ADDED A PROB30 GROUP TO THE MEM FORECAST FOR TSRAS
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF TSRAS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS.
SJM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
40% IN THE AFTERNOONS, WITH DAILY, ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MOZ113-115.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001-007-
010-011.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MSZ001-007-010-011.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ002>006-008-009-
012>017-020>024.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
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