610
FXUS64 KMEG 121119
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
619 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, AND OCCASIONALLY A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- A FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH NORTH OF I-40
ON MONDAY MORNING, AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THE VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS
EARLIER IN THE DAY PUSHED SOUTH. STRATIFORM SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI IN THE MEANTIME AS A
TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION BEHIND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TRAVELS NORTHEAST. RAIN SHOULD END BY 09Z, LEAVING
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
REGION. THIS BOUNDARY, AS OF 02Z, HAD JUST ENTERED NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 - 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE,
EXPECT ELEVATED WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
THE UPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH WEDNESDAY'S STORMS/RAIN WILL
TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, EVENTUALLY
MAKING ITS WAY EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAPID
HEIGHT RISES WILL PROMOTE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND HELP BUILD
IN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING
PREVAILS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY
MORNING, A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL PUSH RIDGING TO THE EAST
AND BRING SOUTHERLIES BACK TO THE REGION. A SURFACE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING THAT
WILL CONTAIN OUR NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION.
IN TUESDAY'S AND WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST CYCLES, MOISTURE APPEARED
TO BE LIMITED DUE TO THE TROUGH BEING HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER, A STEADY SLOWING TREND AMONGST RECENT GUIDANCE HAS NOW
ALLOWED FOR THE FRONT TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST THROUGH SUNDAY
FOR DEWPOINTS TO POTENTIALLY REACH INTO THE 60S ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS BRINGS INTO QUESTION THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS HIGHER INSTABILITY HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AS WELL. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS ALSO THE GEOMETRY OF THE
UPPER LOW, WHICH NOW HAS A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM STRETCHED
SOUTH ACROSS THE OZARKS SUNDAY EVENING. SUCH A FEATURE WOULD
ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTFALLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, ERODING MUCH OF THE CIN SEEN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. EVEN
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLES, A TREND TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION HAS BEGUN TO
APPEAR WITH LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF 500+ J/KG MUCAPE AND 30+
INCREASING 20% TO 30% IN BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE "JUST IN TIME" AND/OR SHALLOW, WHICH HAS
KEPT CONFIDENCE STILL SOMEWHAT LOW, BUT CERTAINLY A TREND TO
WATCH.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
A STRONG 1032 HIGH SHIFTING INTO THE CONUS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS AIR MASS WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER THAN THE ONE BEHIND THIS
MORNING'S COLD FRONT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S
AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE CENTERED OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH A 60% - 80% CHANCE OF LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY WHERE
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL BEGIN ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A DRY FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
POST-FRONTAL DRY AIR IS RUSHING IN, LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT TUP, WHICH SHOULD CLEAR UP WITHIN THE NEXT
2 HOURS. AS THE FRONT PULLS AWAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, INCREASING NORTH WINDS TO 10
KTS OR SO WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 20 KTS. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WILL PLAY HOST TO A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND A DECREASE IN
SPEED AS THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE CAROLINAS.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW PICKS BACK UP TO 10 KTS OR SO TOMORROW
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 30-40% TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY'S RAINFALL HAS INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CAD
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