795
FXUS64 KMEG 262034
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT NEXT
WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN, INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
AN MCV IS CURRENTLY CHURNING OVER WEST TENNESSEE, GIVING WAY TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST CAMS SUGGEST A
VERY SIMILAR SETUP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH YET ANOTHER MCV
SURGING UP FROM THE GULF COAST. EXPECT A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS SETUP IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF COLD
AIR FUNNELS, WHICH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WIDELY WITH THE SHOWERS WE
SAW TODAY. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AREAWIDE
AS WELL DUE TO THE LOCALIZED WIND MINIMUM COMBINED WITH A
PLETHORA OF EXCESS MOISTURE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT HOTTER AND DRIER EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS NEXT WEEK, NUDGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
UNCOMFORTABLY HOT TERRITORY. THE RIDGE'S INFLUENCE DOESN'T QUITE
EXTEND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MONDAY, SO THIS WILL BE A
WARMING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST. NBM PROBABILITIES DEPICT A HIGH
CHANCE (>70%) OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90 DEGREES AREAWIDE STARTING
ON TUESDAY. FORECAST SURFACE ANALYSES SUGGEST A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST MIDWEEK AS WELL. THIS
DOMINANT RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS UNMISTAKABLY SPELLS OUT HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE MID-SOUTH. WE'LL CERTAINLY NEED HEAT
HEADLINES, MAYBE AS EARLY AS MONDAY BUT MORE LIKELY BY TUESDAY.
CAD
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
ANOTHER WET AND UNSETTLED TAF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 30 HOURS AS ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACT TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH OVERNIGHT. 12Z CAMS DEPICT
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY 06Z WITH THE GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXISTING AFTER SUNRISE.
ANS
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...ANS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page