246
FXUS64 KMEG 130334
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1034 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY BORDER. A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- COOLER, DRIER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE MID-70S TO LOW 80S FOR MONDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS KINKED ACROSS
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL
WIGGLE SLIGHTLY SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE CONTINUING ITS
ASCENT NORTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW WAA ADVECTION SHOWERS
MAY INITIATE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AN MCS WILL TAKE A DIVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS MCS, LOW TO MEDIUM (50% OR LESS) PROBABILITIES OF
SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS EXIST. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES (30-
50% RANGE) EXIST ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AROUND 4 PM. THE GFS AND
HRRR MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS ACTIVITY WITH OVER
2000 J/KG OF CAPE. SHEAR IS A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH
AROUND 30KTS ACROSS NORTHWEST TN. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD
EMERGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH 60-65 MPH GUSTS AS THE MAIN
CONCERN. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SHORTLY BEHIND THE MCS BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT CAMS HAVE THE BETTER FORCING HEADING TOWARDS MIDDLE TN,
BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS
ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHEAST IN THE EARLY HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT
BRIEFLY ACROSS MIDDLE MS ON MONDAY BRINGING LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES TO SOUTHEAST AR AND NORTH MS. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY ON MONDAY AND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S AND LOW 80S.
BROAD TROUGHING FROM CANADA ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
AIM ANOTHER COLD FRONT AT THE MID-SOUTH BY MIDWEEK. TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER, CONTINUES TO CHANGE EACH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUN. PREVIOUS DAYS HAD THIS FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, WHERE JOINT PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER
INGREDIENTS PEAK FOR THE WEEK BETWEEN 40-60%. THIS MODEL SWEEP
HAS THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FOR SURE, BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
STICK AROUND FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT LOW CLOUD AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE AT MKL AND TUP, WHERE A TEMPO FOR LOWER CIGS
AND VSBYS HAS BEEN ADDED. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT CONCERN IS MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN MO ON SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH BY THE
EVENING. PROB30S HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR ALL SITES. ANOTHER MCS WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SO ADDED ANOTHER
PROB30 AT MEM FOR THAT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL
PICK UP FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH SOME GUSTS TO 18-
22 AT JBR AND MEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION, WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...SJM
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