985
FXUS64 KMEG 231710
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1210 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, BUT EXTREME HEAT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH THE MID-SOUTH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY HAS COOLED TEMPERATURES
NICELY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 1-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. WITH A PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND, DRY AIR ALOFT, EXPECT A
PLEASANT AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN AS A SHORTWAVE IMPINGES FROM THE WNW. DUE TO
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE, QPF AMOUNTS, AND ADVANCING CLOUD COVER,
THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR PROJECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. ALSO DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS,
UNLESS RAPID CLEARING OCCURS, SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A
CONCERN, BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT PARTICULARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING 1" OR MORE OF
RAINFALL ARE ISOLATED, BUT BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO.
TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS
WAKE. CURRENT PROBABILITIES FROM THE LREF SHOW LOW (20% OR LESS)
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS BEING PRESENT, BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES. THE WARM FRONT WILL
NOT TRAVERSE QUICKLY OR MAKE IT VERY FAR NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY, SO EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A 'COLD'
FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES, WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE
WEEKEND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY FOLLOWING THE FRONT, THERE IS NO
EXPECTED SEASONAL RELIEF, AS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST.
DNM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IS GENERATING A MEDIUM TO HIGH SIGNAL FOR
SHRAS AND ISOLATED TSRAS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND TREKKING SSE
FROM JBR TOWARDS MEM NEAR DAYBREAK.
DUE TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES, BOTH JBR AND MEM
HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE VCSH AND PROB30 GROUPS. BOTH MKL AND
TUP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN-FREE, WITH A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTERLY TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL AVERAGE 35 TO 45 PERCENT TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FOG SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN DUE TO ADVANCING CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED SURFACE
WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH AS RAIN CHANCES PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AC3
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