037
FXUS64 KMEG 200337
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1037 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
- A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY, DECREASING
TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR-RECORD VALUES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
A WARM AND CALM NIGHT IS ON DISPLAY AS A 593 DAM RIDGE, CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX, CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. ALL FOUR OF OUR CLIMATE SITES
(JONESBORO, MEMPHIS, JACKSON, AND TUPELO) BROKE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE RECORDS SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER 100S. SUNDAY WILL BE A NEAR RINSE AND REPEAT THANKS TO THIS
ANOMALOUS SEPTEMBER RIDGE. RIDGING STARTS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY
MONDAY AS A CUT-OFF UPPER-LOW BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. NEAR RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WILL STILL BE PRESENT MONDAY,
BUT COME TUESDAY, WE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO "COOL" CLOSER TO
NORMAL AS AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DIP ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST AS FORECAST PWATS BEGIN TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7", NEARING THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. THOUGH SUCH PWAT VALUES WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WE WILL APPRECIATE ANY RAINFALL AFTER THE
PROLONGED DRY SPELL WE'VE BEEN IN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES
WILL CARRY INTO TUESDAY WITH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED.
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY 50 DAYS, A COOLER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE LEADING FRONT, SUPPORTING FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID-SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES ARE CONCERNED PAST
TUESDAY, DRIER AIR LOOKS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THIS TREND OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
BUILDING IN ALOFT. LOOKING AHEAD, THE LATEST 8-10 DAY TEMPERATURE
AND RAINFALL OUTLOOKS HAVE US ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEADING
INTO OCTOBER. WE'LL GLADLY WELCOME THIS AFTER BEING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND DRY FOR SUCH AN EXTENDED PERIOD.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 TO 7 KTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
TOMORROW, BECOMING W/SW. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
ANOMALOUSLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 35% SUNDAY WITH VALUES INCREASING
TOAROUND 50% BY TUESDAY. 20 FT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRE WEATHER PERIOD. WITH DRY SOILS, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA
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