073  
FXUS64 KMEG 192024  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE HEATWAVE CONTINUES. HEAT INDICES HAVE REACHED THE 105F  
THRESHOLD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO,  
BUT JUST BARELY. DECIDED NOT TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO  
TOMORROW, AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN US MEETING CRITERIA  
EVERYWHERE TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE  
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WHERE THE RIDGE  
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER  
THE ALABAMA, WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA  
TOMORROW. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF  
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 90, WITH HEAT INDICES  
IN THE LOWER 100S.  
 
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE ON SUNDAY.  
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BY MONDAY  
MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE MID-SOUTH FROM  
THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA  
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, A FEW STRONG  
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO  
PUSH SOUTH AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE  
HEADING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT, MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER  
AND COOLER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. IN FACT, THE GFS  
MOS IS SPITTING OUT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S FOR PARTS  
OF WEST TENNESSEE, WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. DEFINITELY SOMETHING  
TO GET EXCITED ABOUT FOR LATE JULY IN THE MID-SOUTH. EVEN MORE  
SHOCKING NEWS, IS THAT THIS DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IS  
EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE  
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE.  
STELLAR WEATHER TO SAY THE LEAST.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SLIDE EAST ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING  
RETURN FLOW TO SETUP ACROSS THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL  
BRING AN ABRUPT END TO OUR STRING OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER. EXPECT THE  
RETURN OF SUMMER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
AC3  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAFS  
 
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS.  
BEST SHRA/TSRA CHANCES EXPECTED NEAR TUP, FURTHEST REMOVE FROM THE  
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL.  
 
PWB  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-  
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-  
POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.  
 
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.  
 
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-  
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-  
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-  
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.  
 
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-  
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-  
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-  
MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.  
 

 
 

 
 
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