414
FXUS64 KMEG 240350
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1050 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE AS VEGETATION
REMAINS DRY AMIDST AFTERNOON LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
ANOTHER RINSE AND REPEAT NIGHT IS ON DISPLAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE 50S AND LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WE'LL WAKE UP TO
ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CIRRUS SATURDAY WILL BE
MUCH THE SAME AS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS PARKED OVER THE
MISSISSISSIPPI VALLEY, DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S LEADING
TO CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE ASK YOU
TO PLEASE CONTINUE TO ADHERE TO LOCAL BURN BANS, PROPERLY DISPOSE
OF CIGARETTES AND MATCHES, AND AVOID USING EQUIPMENT THAT CREATES
SPARKS.
MOVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE IS OF NOTE AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE MID-SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS BEGIN TO SPAN THE UPPER 70S. COOL
MORNINGS REMAIN THE TREND WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S EACH DAY. ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN COME MID-WEEK AS
DUAL UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS (ONE FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ANOTHER FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST) BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THOUGH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH
NORTH OF THE MID-SOUTH COME WEDNESDAY, AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
IS ANTICIPATED HELPING TO POTENTIALLY ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED, OUR BEST SHOT LOOKS TO
OCCUR LATE WITH LREF HINTING AT A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BEGINNING
TO BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOW MUCH MOISTURE THE MID-
SOUTH IS ABLE TO RETAIN WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. SOME POTENTIAL GOOD
NEWS, THE LATEST CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK HAS US FAVORING (40-50%)
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES HEADING INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE APPRECIATED AS MANY AREAS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH REMAIN UNDER EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) AND A FEW AREAS UNDER
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 KTS, ESE TONIGHT AND S TO SE
TOMORROW. CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE AS MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 25-30% SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 20 FT
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, BUT 10-HR FUELS WILL TEETER AROUND 10%
SATURDAY. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT PATCHY, TO LOCALLY DENSE, RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT EACH MORNING THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JDS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page