544
FXUS64 KMEG 151721
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUNNY,
COOL, AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
ANOTHER WARM, SPRING-LIKE DAY PERSISTS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A SIMILAR OVERALL FEEL AS OUR
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM YESTERDAY. AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT, THERE
IS CURRENTLY A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSHING OFF THE ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON THAT WILL MOVE UP TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THURSDAY. THIS PARENT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH THIS DWINDLING LINE APPROACHING OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY FOR ANY OF THESE STORMS TO WORK WITH AS THEY REACH
OUR AREA, SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED INITIALLY. A FEW
CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A SECONDARY RESURGENCE IN ACTIVITY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO GET GOING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS
WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND HOW THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL PROGRESS, THE
CHANCE DOES REMAIN LOW.
BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. POPS
REMAIN AROUND THE 20-30% RANGE, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD PLAY SPOILER
TO SOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY. ACROSS THE
AREA, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MEMPHIS,
JACKSON, AND JONESBORO IS 91 DEGREES AND 89 DEGREES FOR TUPELO ON
APRIL 17TH. WITH THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST, TUPELO
HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING THEIR RECORD WITH A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THE REMAINING SITES COULD AS WELL. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING INTO FRIDAY. INTO SATURDAY, AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE PLAINS, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-80%) THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES FOR
FAVORABLE CAPE AND SHEAR GENERALLY BEING IN THE 30-40% RANGE,
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE AREA IS
NOT CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN ANY RISK OUTLOOKS FROM SPC WITH IT
BEING DAY 4, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A MARGINAL RISK IS
INTRODUCED WITH THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK TOMORROW MORNING. SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALBEIT THE THREAT DOES REMAIN LOW.
FROM A QPF STANDPOINT, THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE HAS MUCH OF THE
MID-SOUTH RECEIVING ANYWHERE FROM 0.25" TO 0.5" OF RAINFALL ON
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS IS NOWHERE CLOSE TO ERASING OUR CURRENT
DEFICIT ACROSS THE AREA, IT SHOULD HELP A LITTLE FOR THOSE WHO
HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
BEHIND SATURDAY'S FRONTAL BOUNDARY, A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR, WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS TEMPORARY BELOW NORMAL
RELIEF WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY
MONDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REBOUND TO AROUND NEAR-
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS SETTLING AROUND THE MID 70S TO START NEXT WORK
WEEK. WITH THE DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE, THIS WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
PREVAILING RAIN-FREE, VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN 8-
10 KTS AT MEM OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO
~35 KTS. THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF GIVEN THE MARGINALITY.
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS DECAYING SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO EASTERN AR (MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT). AS THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENS, WE'RE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING. ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WARRANTING THE INCLUSION
OF A PROB30 FOR TSRA AT MEM. THERE IS ALSO A MEDIUM POTENTIAL (40-
50%) FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT JBR/MKL THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT MEM/TUP, BUT IF CEILINGS FORM, THEY'LL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE < 3000 FT AGL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 35-40%+ RANGE TODAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THIS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALLOW MINRH VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 40% THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES BOTH THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH BOTH EVENTS WILL LIKELY
BE AROUND 0.5" AT BEST. BY SUNDAY, FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL
RETURN AS MINRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 30%, WITH MANY
LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW 25% THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...MJ
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