704
FXUS64 KMEG 151053
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
553 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID-SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM, PREVENTING
RECOVERY AND CREATING STRESS FOR AT-RISK POPULATIONS.
- HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES A 598 DM HIGH OVER LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THUS FAR ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH. LATE EVENING TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLE AND
VERY WARM IN THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S, RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND RESULTING
IN A CONTINUATION OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS, THE COMBINATION OF VERY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH SUCCESSIVE DAYS OF DANGEROUS HEAT
AND LITTLE TO NO RELIEF AT NIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. PROBABILITIES
REMAIN VERY LOW (<10% CHANCE) FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO
SUNDAY.
MID TO LONG RANGE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK FRONT TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH LOW CHANCES (ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE)
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING PEAK HEATING AS
OVERALL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK, FAVORING PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION.
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
COVERAGE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH. NAEFS/EPS DATA SUGGESTS SOME RELIEF IN THE FORM OF
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES AND AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES MAY BE
IN STORE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH LOWER
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID-SOUTH. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, WITH ANY SATURDAY AFTERNOON CUMULUS BASES
REMAINING ABOVE 5K FEET. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
HOT AND PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE THE DRYING OF FUELS, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 20-FOOT WINDS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ001>017-
020>024.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3
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