522
FXUS64 KMEG 030444
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-SEPTEMBER. AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100
TO 109 DEGREES.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN REMAINS THE INTENSE HEAT. JONESBORO
AND NWS MEMPHIS RECORDED HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 101 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE MEMPHIS AIRPORT REACHED A HIGH OF 100. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN.
WEDNESDAY'S 19Z NBM, UPON WHICH THE EVENING FORECAST IS BASED,
CONTINUED THE RECENT TREND OF BEING 3-5 DEGREES TOO HIGH ON
DEWPOINTS, AND PERHAPS A DEGREE TOO COOL ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH IS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE SOIL
MOISTURE. MUCH OF EASTERN ARKANSAS, AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MEMPHIS, HAVE SOIL MOISTURE BELOW THE
2ND PERCENTILE. THIS MAY BE IMPACTING THE NBM DEWPOINTS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BLEND TWO PARTS CONSSHORT GUIDANCE WITH
ONE PART NBM FOR DEWPOINTS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT LEAVES
US AT OR ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT BELOW EXTREME HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY,
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST MS,
AND MAY PROVIDE LOCALIZED TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
FOR THE LONGER TERM, BOTH GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB
HEIGHT PROGS DEPICT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTER RETROGRADING
FROM THE MIDSOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BRING LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT TO THE MIDSOUTH, BUT
HAVE ONLY MODEST EFFECT ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOOKING TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BOTH ENSEMBLE MODEL SYSTEMS SHOW THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING BACK TO THE EAST, EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AND THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER WEEK, PAST SEPTEMBER 16TH.
WE MAY BE IN FOR ONE OF OUR HOTTEST SEPTEMBERS, BARRING A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT LATE IN THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL MIDSOUTH TAF SITES, AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MEM 25 MILE VCNTY RING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TUP TAF RETAINS AN AMD NOT SKED DURING NON-STAFFED ATCT HOURS DUE
TO ASOS COMMS OUTAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TODAY. WETTING RAINFALL CHANCES
WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOT TEMPERATURES OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 35 TO 45 PERCENT. DUE TO
DRY SOIL CONDITIONS, NIGHTTIME FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. .
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...PWB
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