988
FXUS64 KMEG 162352
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
652 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND 25
MPH ON SATURDAY.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 70S AND
80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
HELLO FALL, IS THAT FINALLY YOU? AFTER WHAT HAS SEEMED LIKE A
NEVER-ENDING SUMMER ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WE FINALLY HAVE SOME
TRUE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY SPAN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
STILL IN THE 50S. WHILE THE MAIN, SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
OUR AREA, WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
DEVELOP WEST OF I-55. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY DRY ENOUGH AT THE
SURFACE THAT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL NOT REACH THE
SURFACE, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN CANNOT NECESSARILY BE RULED OUT AS
IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF
THIS, GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY STEEP PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.
MUCH OF THE AREA IS REPORTING 10 TO 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST, SO EXPECT SOME OCCASIONAL 20 TO 25 MPH WIND
GUSTS TO CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE 60S.
BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LREF GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS DRY PATTERN, WITH A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEK. SUNDAY MORNING WILL START OFF WITH SOME OF THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON, WITH MANY
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-
40, TEMPERATURES MAY COME CLOSE TO FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE DOES HAVE ABOUT A 40 TO 50% CHANCE OF
LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW 37 DEGREES, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH WITH UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES. DESPITE THE CHILLY START,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. INTO THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY, LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE MID-SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 17/04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY
MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RELATIVELY DRY FUELS AND GUSTY
WINDS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST
CENTRAL AR, NW MS, AND FAR SW TN THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 30% TO
40% RANGE ON SATURDAY, WITH CONTINUED WIND GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 40%, WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT. NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...SJM
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