107
FXUS64 KMEG 022325
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE 80S.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO 90S BY
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A THICK STRATUS DECK AND NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE PROHIBITED MUCH
WARMING THIS SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 11 AM ARE IN THE
70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW
CLOUD BREAKS EMERGING, WHICH WILL SUPPORT MINOR WARMING; HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW 80F. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
REACH 80 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LIGHT DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BUT SOME ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THIS SAME VICINITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES ITS PATH, EXPECT A SIMILAR FORECAST TOMORROW
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN ZONES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST.
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART BY TUESDAY, BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW LOOKS TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL OCCUR WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO
NORMAL BEGINNING IN EASTERN ARKANSAS, REACHING THE LOWER 90S. BY
MID-TO-LATE WEEK, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS, SUPPORTING ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE
AGAINST DRY AIR ALOFT. THANKFULLY, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START
OUT RATHER WEAK AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE MODEST. HOWEVER,
BY THE WEEKEND, THE FLOW AMPLIFIES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
PROBABLE TO RETURN INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THERE ARE SOME LOW TO
MEDIUM PROBABILITIES OF HEAT INDEX VALUES NEARING 105F AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A TOUCH COOLER.
ENJOY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT BE PREPARED
FOR HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DNM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE FINALLY RETURNED ACROSS JBR/MEM/MKL AND ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM CURRENT MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT TUP. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT
MEM/TUP THROUGH AROUND 03Z, WARRANTING A CONTINUED VCSH AT BOTH
SITES. AS SKIES SLOWLY SCATTER OUT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT AT MKL. OTHERWISE,
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT
30 HOURS.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MINRH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40%, WITH 20FT WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING
AT TO BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AEH
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