605
FXUS64 KMEG 291708
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- DANGEROUS AND OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES INTO TUESDAY.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 110 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE TO
END OF THIS WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY
COOLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
A HOT AND HUMID DAY IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME
DIURNALLY BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPING WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA.
A 595 DM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BRING PROLONGED
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
THIS WEEK. A COMBINATION OF THESE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGING FROM 105 TO 109 DEGREES THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE (15-30%) OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY PEAK HEATING. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL ONLY BRING A TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE
DANGEROUS AND OPPRESSIVE HEAT.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA IN
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS, IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
DECIDED TO KEEP THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE TIME
BEING AND REEVALUATE HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
CHANCES INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND WILL INCREASE MODESTLY AS
THE HIGH PUSHES EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WITH THE GREATEST GUST POTENTIAL AT JBR. OTHERWISE, AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ANS
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