163
FXUS64 KMEG 201136
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
SPREADING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWARD ACROSS
MOST OF MID-SOUTH.
- A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI MAY OCCUR THROUGH
SUNRISE SATURDAY AS LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ENCOURAGE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN CLOUDY CONDITIONS, THE PRECISE EXTENT OF THE
FOG WILL BE LIMITED. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT BY MID-
MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY WILL BE DEFINED BY A
RETREATING WARM FRONT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE MID-SOUTH. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. ELSEWHERE, A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY PLACES THE MID-SOUTH IN A WARM SECTOR. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING, BUT THE
GREATER CONCERN WILL BE A DECAYING MCS COMING OUT OF MISSOURI IN
THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE AT THIS TIME, WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND RRFS DEPICTING AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER THE MID-SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT
UPSCALE STORM GROWTH FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION, THOUGH A FEW
SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES INTO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE FOR THIS AREA ON
SUNDAY.
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DEFINED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES, BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEPENDING ON
WHERE STORMS DEVELOP NEXT WEEK, PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL VARY.
HOWEVER, THE LREF IS PAINTING A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING AREAWIDE THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY. THIS TOTAL IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR A POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS EARLY
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT TUP OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS AND HAS
NECESSITATED A MOVE TO THE PROB30 GROUP BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASING
WITH PEAK HEATING. HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES A MEDIUM (40-50%)
CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT TUP LATE TONIGHT. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN IFR CEILING REDUCTIONS AT TUP LATE TONIGHT REMAINS
LOW AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR INCLUSION SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MINRH
VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER 40% WITH A TYPICAL, HUMID SUMMERTIME
PATTERN. DAILY WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CJC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page