221
FXUS64 KMEG 141101
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
601 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. BY FRIDAY, NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
- A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY, MAINLY TO
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
- FOLLOWING A HOT AND DRY DAY ON FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
LATE SATURDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE BOTH DAYS AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE
LOW AND MID 80S. FOR CONTEXT, OUR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MIDDLE OF APRIL ARE THE LOW 70S.
OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAINFALL ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN THE MID-SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS FEATURING
A LATER ARRIVAL TIME WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE
AREA JUST AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SHOULD
STORM TIMING CONTINUE TO PUSH LATER INTO THE DAY, A GREATER
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE. THE LREF CONTINUES TO
PLACE A 50-80% CHANCE OF OVERLAPPING SEVERE PARAMETERS BY 1PM.
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IF
STORMS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEGLIGIBLE RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, RESULTING IN LITTLE
TO NO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR, THUS FAR, AS
EFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MID-SOUTH. THE
LATEST NBM SUGGESTS A 40-50% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REACHING 90 DEGREES. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, IT WILL
BEAT OUR AVERAGE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY BY OVER A MONTH. ELSEWHERE
ON FRIDAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE ROCKIES
AND DEEPEN AS IT EJECTS EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE MID-
SOUTH ON SATURDAY, ONCE AGAIN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. CURRENTLY,
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES NOT HAVE THE MID-SOUTH OUTLOOKED
FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A FEW MACHINE LEARNING
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
FORCING, SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT
REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL SPECIFICS.
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT EXITS THE MID-SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. LONG-
TERM FORECASTS SUGGEST ANOTHER WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, SO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WHILE
THEY LAST.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE (>90% CHANCE) FOR VFR CONDITIONS AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING PERSISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED SSW WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 14-20
KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 23-30 KTS AT MEM, MKL, AND JBR THIS
MORNING, AND THEN DECREASE TO 8-10 KTS BY THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS
MINRH REMAINS ABOVE 30 PERCENT. WETTING RAIN CHANCES EXIST ON
THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. ADDITIONAL RAINS ARE
ANTICIPATED SATURDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...SJM
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