647
FXUS64 KMEG 132341
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
641 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- A FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH NORTH OF I-40
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY MOVING TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
THIS MORNING AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AND BRING MILDER
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND, ASIDE FROM A FEW CLOUDS, PRODUCE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S TONIGHT.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY. AS SOUTHERLY WINDS REDEVELOP, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT, A MAJOR UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING
THE ROCKIES WITH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY 12Z
SUNDAY, A 990 MB SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED NEAR SW IOWA
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH, LEADING TO INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS OVER
40 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER, WITH
PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE BOOTHEEL AND NE ARKANSAS. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SUNDAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF STORMS (QLCS) WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS ARKANSAS. THERE
IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM SECTOR. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN, THE MID-
LEVEL WINDS REALLY INTENSIFY WITH A 125 KT MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHING
INTO THE MID-SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A BROAD 55-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THE QLCS PUSHES
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA, EXPECT IT TO TAP THESE VERY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT AT TIMES, RESULTING IN DAMAGING WINDS, PERHAPS
SIGNIFICANT (75 MPH+) IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE LATEST RRFS ALSO HAS
DCAPE VALUES OF 1000 J/KG IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE, WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.
ALONG WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT, THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR
QLCS TORNADOES WITH THE BOWING SEGMENTS OR WHERE BREAKS IN THE
LINE OF STORMS OCCUR. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE FAVORABLE WITH
GOOD LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OVER 300 M2/S2.
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE MODULATED BY THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. SBCAPES CLIMB INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS DO ADVECT DEWPOINTS > 60F NORTH AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, THOUGH THE MOISTURE LAYER IS NOT OF VERY HIGH
QUALITY (SHALLOW), WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGH LCLS AND LOWER
TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL 72 HOURS AWAY FROM THE
EVENT, AND THE CAMS WILL SOON SHED MORE LIGHT ON THESE MESOSCALE
DETAILS.
TIMING IS COMING INTO FOCUS. STORMS COULD ENTER NE AR AS EARLY AS
4 PM ON SUNDAY AND EXIT NE MS AS LATE AS 2 AM ON MONDAY. IT WILL
BE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE FROM ONE SIDE OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN A LITTLE OVER 6 HOURS.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW BEFORE ENDING, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF A DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS NE AR, MO
BOOTHEEL, NW TN, AND ALONG THE TN RIVER. MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT FREEZING
TEMPS NORTH OF I-40 ON MONDAY, AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY, AND EAST OF
THE MS RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE MOST
IMPACTFUL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. FREEZE
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DUE TO THE EARLY START TO SPRING
THIS YEAR AND THE AMOUNT OF BLOOMING THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST MIDWEEK, AND RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 02Z - 03Z, WHILE REMAINING OUT OF
THE SOUTH. LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN TAKE OVER THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 30-40% THIS
AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 40-50% SATURDAY. FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH
FROM WEDNESDAY'S RAINFALL WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JAB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page