474
FXUS64 KMEG 210410
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1110 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
MID-SOUTH ON TUESDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WINDS, LOW
HUMIDITY, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL EDGE
HIGHER.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST, AND LONGWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, UNDERCUT BY A WEAK SOUTHERN
BRANCH WAVE OVER TX.
AS WE MOVE INTO MIDWEEK, THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE WILL TRANSIT
EASTWARD TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY, WHILE SOUTH TX WAVE WEAKENS AND
MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GULF COAST. THE NET EFFECT FOR THE
MIDSOUTH WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS. 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO AROUND 10C ON TUESDAY, WHICH IS RELATIVELY COOL WHEN
CONSIDERING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S F. THIS IMPLIES
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE AND DEEP MIXING ON A DAY WHEN MINIMUM
SURFACE RH VALUES ARE FORECAST RANGE FROM 20-30%. WHERE DEAD
FUELS REMAIN AMONG THE RECENT VEGETATIVE GREEN-UP, WILDFIRE
DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS PARTICULARLY
THE CASE WHERE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MS RIVER
DELTA NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF MEMPHIS. WARMING DEWPOINTS AND
MODERATING WINDS SHOULD MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE MID TO LATE
WEEK. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PACIFIC COAST UPPER LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS,
WHILE A STRONG ZONAL SOUTHERN JET EXTENDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. BY
FRIDAY, DIFFLUENT MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE MIDSOUTH. AT
SUCH A TIME, THE LREF DEPICTS PWAT VALUES OF 1.4 INCHES (90-95%
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY). IF CLOUDS AND EARLY DAY RAINFALL
DON'T STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE TOO MUCH, THE LREF-DEPICTED
SURFACE-BASED CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG COULD BE REALIZED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL (25-30KT) AND IT'S A
BIT EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY FORECAST CAPE. BUT THE INGREDIENTS MAY
COME TOGETHER FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL.
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, UNDER
RELATIVELY STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PWATS REMAINING
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINS TO
FADE BY LATE WEEKEND, BUT THE LOOSE LREF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT
A SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY MONDAY. SUCH A FEATURE COULD BRING
A MORE FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM EVENT TO THE MIDSOUTH, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN SUCH A SCENARIO IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AIRSPACE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AT
JBR/MEM/MKL. GUSTS SHOULD DROP OUT BY 00Z.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20-30% WILL ACCOMPANY 20 FOOT WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL,
AND 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. HUMIDITY WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, IN ADVANCE OF
WETTING RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AEH
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