701
FXUS64 KMEG 151313
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
813 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 812 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.
- NEXT WORKWEEK WILL FEATURE DAILY RAIN CHANCES, THOUGH ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
ANOTHER CALM NIGHT IS ON DISPLAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. ONE MORE CHILLY
MORNING IS ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S AHEAD OF
A DRASTIC WARM UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION AS WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S WITH SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY REACHING 90, WHILE AREAS EAST
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT ALONG THE
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY BORDER, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING ENOUGH LIFT
FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CHANCES ARE
GENERALLY <30%.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO BUILD IN ALOFT.
COME NEXT WORKWEEK A WEATHER PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS AS WE
TRANSITION TO MORE WET AND UNSETTLED. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HINT
AT A WEAK TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW HERE IN THE MID-SOUTH MONDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST, CLOSER TO OUR AREA, SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE OVERALL START TIME OF PRECIPITATION,
HOWEVER, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS LOOKS TO BE MONDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND
THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS GETS DISPLACED TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF LREF
PROBABILITIES, >500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND >30 KTS OF BULK SHEAR,
CONTINUE TO DISPLAY <15% CHANCE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO EJECT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS GO, LREF GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AROUND A
25-40% CHANCE OF RAINFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN 1.5" THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
AEH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY, AS THE MIDSOUTH
REMAINS IN A WELL-MIXED WARM SECTOR BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. GUSTS ARE LIKELY TODAY AT JBR AND MEM, WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE TIGHTEST. THESE GUSTS MAY
SUBSIDE AT MEM FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNSET, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LIMITED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY DUE TO 20 FT
WINDS REMAINING LESS THAN 10 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB
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