464
FXUS64 KMEG 061801
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
101 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
STARTING SUNDAY, LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
- BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, IT WILL BECOME VERY HOT AND HUMID,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING OVER FROM THE ARKLATEX AS OF
NOON SATURDAY, BRINGING AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE AND RESULTANT
SHOWERS TO THE MID-SOUTH. KNQA RADAR IS PICKING UP ON THE
OUTERMOST EDGE OF THESE SHOWERS, WHICH ACCORDING TO THE 12Z SUITE
OF CAMS, WILL MOST LIKELY SKIRT THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR CWA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THE 7PM SAT - 7AM
SUN TIME FRAME ALSO CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN SHORT TERM MODELS,
LIKELY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WITH THE LATER
TREND OF PRECIP, THE MOST LIKELY ARRIVAL TIME FOR THE FIRST
"WAVE" OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO KICK OFF THIS WET PATTERN
WILL BE RIGHT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE MODE FOR
TOMORROW/SUNDAY LOOKS VERY ISOLATED AND SINGLE CELLULAR, MUCH
LIKE A SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THESE WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED
BY PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON, LEADING TO VERY LOCALIZED
THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN
PARTICULARLY STRONG STORMS.
THIS WET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH DAILY POPS
ABOVE 50% MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FORECAST SURFACE ANALYSES DEPICT A
VERY MESSY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN BOTH OF THESE DAYS, WITH NO
TANGIBLE GRASP ON FRONTAL POSITIONING FOR THE MID-SOUTH. UP TO
THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THERE IS A PRETTY WELL-
DEFINED SURFACE LOW CHURNING ABOUT THE OH RIVER VALLEY THESE TWO
DAYS. WITH A BROAD MOISTURE AXIS OVERRUNNING THE MID-SOUTH ALONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC FORCING, EXPECT A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AGAIN, MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE RAIN AT ALL DUE
TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS. BUT THOSE THAT DO WILL
HAVE A LOCALIZED RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THINGS START TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS A MIDLEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S - ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST PLACES. RIGHT ON CUE WITH
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER, WE'LL BE FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TUESDAY (LOWER TEMPS, HIGHER HUMIDITY) AND WEDNESDAY-
FRIDAY (HIGHER TEMPS, LOWER HUMIDITY). WE'RE STILL CARRYING ABOUT
20-30% POPS EACH DAY, BUT MOISTURE CONTENT IS LOW ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SPORADIC CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, AT BEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY SOUTH
WINDS AT 6-10 KTS. AS AN UPPER LOW STARTS TO PIVOT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHRAS
BY MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY EXPECT
COVERAGE TO INCREASE AND TSRAS TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SOUTHERLY AT 6-10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURNING THIS WEEKEND AND PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP FINE FUELS MOIST. ADDITIONALLY,
WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, FURTHER MITIGATING FIRE RISK. EVEN AS HIGH HEAT RETURNS
MID-WEEK, ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...SJM
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