338
FXUS64 KMEG 021734
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1134 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TUESDAY.
- DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THE SUN IS OUT AND TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH. ALL LOCATIONS WERE ABOVE FREEZING AT 1130 AM. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON, AND
MORE MELTING WILL OCCUR, THOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLOW
PROCESS IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED A LOT OF SLEET.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL STAY
MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY OR WARM AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM ACQUIRES MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD TREK.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS TOWARD NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, WHERE ABOUT
ONE HALF INCH IS LIKELY (>70% CHANCE). AMOUNTS TRAIL OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL HAVE LESS THAN A 25% CHANCE OF RECEIVING A
TENTH OF AN INCH.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SENDING US BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S AND LOWS BELOW FREEZING. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST
MORNING WITH AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF A JONESBORO TO MEMPHIS TO
TUPELO LINE HAVING A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF LOWS IN THE
TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON FRIDAY, AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
REDEVELOP, HELPING TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 50S. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF HITTING 60 DEGREES
ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY, THEN WARMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. RETURN FLOW MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH MODEL VARIANCE IS FAIRLY HIGH AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT
NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DETERIORATE CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LLWS AROUND 2000FT WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 35-40 KTS.
DESPITE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING LIFT, INSTABILITY IS
NEGLIGIBLE. -RA IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. ONCE PRECIPITATION
ENDS, IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 45 PERCENT, AND
WET FUELS. WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY SOUTH OF I-40.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM
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