498  
FXUS64 KMEG 291807  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1207 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2022  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2022  
 
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS HAVE ROLLED INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS  
MORNING AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT  
REMAINS DECENTLY SHEARED WITH GREAT VEERING OF THE WINDS. MODEST  
INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND  
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS  
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 50 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. THIS HAS RESULTED  
IN GOOD UPDRAFTS AND MARGINAL HAIL PRODUCTION. MOISTURE RETURN  
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOWER 60  
DEWPOINTS ALREADY ANALYZED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO  
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.  
 
THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. THE EXCEPTION IS THAT  
THE MAIN THREAT IS NOW SOUTH OF I-40 IN THE ENHANCED AND MODERATE  
RISK AREAS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE STILL IN PLAY AS WE  
APPROACH SUNDOWN. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR  
ACTIVITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THEY CONGEAL INTO LINE SEGMENTS  
WITH EMBEDDED VORTICES. A COUPLE OF STRONG AND LONG-TRACKED  
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTH  
MISSISSIPPI.  
 
POPS WERE INCREASED AND MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO OTHER ELEMENTS.  
 
AC3  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2022  
 
A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON TAP FOR THE LOWER MS VALLEY  
INCLUDING AT LEAST PART OF THE MID-SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN TAKEAWAY THIS MORNING IS THAT THE MOST  
LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR STRONG TORNADOES HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH  
TOWARD CENTRAL MS.  
 
A 993 MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY AND  
THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES  
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A MARINE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL  
RAPIDLY MOVE NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE LLJ INCREASES ACROSS THE  
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S  
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH LATE TODAY. EXPECT  
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN AR AS  
THIS FRONT PUSHES NORTHEAST. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL TRACK ACROSS  
THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND COULD FEATURE A FEW  
STRONG STORMS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM WITH COULD RESULT  
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.  
 
THE MAIN SHOW WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS  
STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS OF 60-75 KTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE  
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE LLJ IN PLACE ACROSS THE  
REGION. THIS WILL CREATE NICELY VEERED WIND PROFILES AND LOOPING  
HODOGRAPHS ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. SURFACE HEATING  
THIS AFTERNOON AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVING INTO THE  
AREA WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES OF 1500 J/KG ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AR,  
THE MEMPHIS METRO AND NORTH MS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE  
AFOREMENTIONED WIND PROFILES WILL GENERATE 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES  
IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. THE PARAMETER SPACE CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY  
FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER END SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT  
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MERGING INTO CLUSTERS. THE MAIN CHANGE IS  
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HIGHER END SEVERE WEATHER WHICH IS BEING  
DRIVEN BY THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. THIS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING  
THAT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR HIGHER END SEVERE WX, INCLUDING  
STRONG TORNADOES, IS SOUTH OF A TUPELO TO CHARLESTON, MS LINE  
TOWARD CENTRAL MS WHERE THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS. THIS IS THE  
AREA WHERE THE CAMS ARE INDICATING THE MOST ROBUST UPDRAFT  
HELICITY TRACKS AND CONVECTION.  
 
HOWEVER, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT CONDITIONS ARE STILL  
QUITE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE ENHANCED RISK AREA FROM THE MEMPHIS  
METRO ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AR AND THE REMAINDER OF NORTH MS NOT  
INCLUDED IN THE MODERATE RISK. JUST BECAUSE PARTS OF THIS AREA  
HAVE BEEN DROPPED FROM THE MODERATE RISK DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE  
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG, LONG TRACK TORNADO OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE  
WEATHER. LIKE STATED ABOVE, THE PARAMETER SPACE IS QUITE  
FAVORABLE, AND SOME CAM GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE  
WEATHER IN THE ENHANCED RISK AREA. THIS IS NO TIME TO LET YOUR  
GUARD DOWN. STAY WEATHER AWARE TODAY.  
 
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING LOOKS TO BE FROM 4PM TO 10 PM ALONG THE MS  
RIVER, INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS REGION, AND FROM 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT  
ACROSS NE MS...PERHAPS LINGERING TO 2 AM ACROSS MONROE COUNTY WHEN  
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS FINALLY THROUGH.  
 
ANOTHER THING TO REMEMBER - THE SUN SETS BY 5 PM SO WE ARE DEALING  
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF NIGHTTIME TORNADOES.  
 
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH  
THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S AND  
LOWER 50S. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE  
20S TO LOWER 30S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST BY FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS BACK  
UP. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION  
DEVELOPS FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY  
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MORE RAIN CHANCES THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO  
MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR  
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
SJM  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. LOW  
CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING PRODUCING MVFR  
CEILINGS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE  
THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTERNOON TO  
LIFR LEVELS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL  
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING  
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL  
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SOME LLWS CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3  
AVIATION...ARS  
 
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