673
FXUS64 KMEG 271727
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MID-SOUTH. DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT, DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN
THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S STARTING SUNDAY, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES RISING AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-SOUTH AND AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS AN MCV MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED AN MCV LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI WITHIN A REGION OF NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. REGIONAL WSR-
88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE REMNANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID-SOUTH. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINDER OF THE MID-SOUTH REMAINS RAIN-FREE AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS YIELDS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG,
20-30 KTS SHEAR, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING AROUND
2 INCHES, NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS MCV WILL MOVE EAST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS ALONG THE MO/KY BORDER. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH SEVERE STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE MCV DEPARTS FROM THE MID-SOUTH. THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT AND MAY BE CANCELLED SOMETIME THIS EVENING IF
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS A 595 DM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS
RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY, EXCEPT
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 105 TO 107 DEGREES. THEREAFTER, AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED TO COVER MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HEAT-
RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
OCCURRING AT NIGHT AS NIGHTLY LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S. LONG-TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING TOWARDS
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL ONLY BRING
LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS ISSUANCE.
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A PROB30 AT JBR AS A
COMPLEX OF STORMS POTENTIALLY MOVES OVER NE AR THIS AFTERNOON.
SUBSEQUENT TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, UP TO 25 KTS, ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
25 KTS AT JBR/MEM ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
HOT AND PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO
THE MID-SOUTH BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
SURFACE MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
40 PERCENT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARZ009-018.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ009-
018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOZ113-115.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ113-
115.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ001-
002-007-008-010>012-020.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ001>004-019>022.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH
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