251
FXUS64 KMEG 221113
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
613 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7 DAYS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING.
- AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI .
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK, UP TO THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
YET ANOTHER DREARY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH AS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH FINALLY BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THE DAYTIME. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION, A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE MID-
SOUTH BEING FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR BY THAT POINT, THIS COULD
INTRODUCE A VERY LOW THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE REMAINS LARGELY SPREAD ON THIS
OUTCOME, WITH INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES BEING A POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR. IF MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP, WHICH HREF
GUIDANCE HAS AROUND A 30% CHANCE OF THIS WITH CAPE / SHEAR, THEN
A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST MS INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
SURFACE LOW ENHANCING OUR LOW-LEVEL WINDS, THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR PRESENT FOR A VERY LOW TORNADO THREAT TO EXIST. THIS
IS A VERY, VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON IF
OUR ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT,
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT WITH THE PROJECTED CLOUD COVER.
NEVERTHELESS, IT IS WORTH THE MENTION AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE
EXPECTED, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR THE MID 70S TO THE NORTH AND NEAR
80 DEGREES SOUTH.
BY SATURDAY INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, LITTLE RESPITE IS
EXPECTED FROM OUR ONGOING WET WEATHER PATTERN. PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA, KEEPING DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. HIGHEST POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY MULTIPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH. THERE MAY BE A SMALL PERIOD OF LOWER
POPS SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND FRIDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT POPS
WILL RISE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, AT TIMES AS HIGH AS THE 97TH
PERCENTILE, THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION, MOST SKEW-TS
THROUGH THE PERIOD HAVE GENERALLY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, WHICH
DOES HEIGHTEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES. IN ESSENCE, IF WE ARE ABLE TO
GET SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, EXPECT FOR THEM TO PRODUCE
SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS QUICKLY. THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE
HEIGHTENED IF STORMS BECOME STATIONARY OR TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR
AREA. THROUGH MONDAY, TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS
NORTH MS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LATE MONDAY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, OUR
ONGOING WET WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO PERSIST. WHILE AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH TYPICALLY
WILL BRING A CLEARING FRONTAL PASSAGE, THIS LOW DOES APPEAR TO
STALL JUST TO OUR WEST AND GET RE-ENVELOPED BACK INTO THE
DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS FURTHER TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THOSE
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING, WITH NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS BY
THIS POINT, LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS WILL EXIST DURING HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. FOR THOSE WAITING FOR A BREAK OUT OF THIS PATTERN, CPC
6 TO 10 DAY GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MID-SOUTH IN THE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED
CATEGORY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SO, IT STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
BREAK IS IN SIGHT. THE BRIGHT SIDE OF THIS PERSISTENT WET PATTERN
IS THAT IT SHOULD HELP OUT OUR ONGOING DROUGHT ISSUES, ESPECIALLY
OVER WEST TN AND NORTH MS WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE
HIGHEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A SUBTLE WAVE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR UOX WILL ENHANCE
RAIN SHOWER (SHRA) DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL IN THE COMING
HOURS. PERSISTENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS,
WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF LIFR. WINDS WILL BE WIDELY
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD DUE TO A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT CROSSING THE AIRSPACE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
RETURN TO VFR AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS OVER MEM, JBR, AND MKL,
BUT THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IF VFR DOES
RETURN, IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRATUS RETURNS AND LIGHT WINDS
PREVAIL.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...DNM
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