454
FXUS64 KMEG 251643
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1143 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- A LARGELY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
A PLEASANT DAY IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT IN OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES, AROUND 90 DEGREES, WITH UPPER 70S AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THE
RIDGE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MID-SOUTH DUE TO A
DEEP TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AREAS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
TROUGH, HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.
DUE TO THE REGION BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE LOW,
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR HOWEVER EACH NIGHT AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SINK UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE NEXT LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE TO AFFECT THE REGION
WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY HURRICANE POLO. POLO IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GUIDANCE IS NOT RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM'S EVOLUTION WELL IN
THE LONG TERM. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AMONGST CURRENT GUIDANCE
IS POLO ABSORBING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL SYSTEM
AND STRETCHING A LARGE COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US.
THIS WOULD BE OUR FIRST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES FROM
THE LREF ARE LESS THAN 20%, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY ONSHORE.
DNM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS
AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE NEAR TUP TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES WILL HOVER BETWEEN 35% AND 45%, BUT
20-FOOT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN CONSISTENTLY LIGHT AT UNDER
10 MPH, PREVENTING ANY CRITICAL FIRE-SPREAD CONDITIONS. FOG
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALIZED, PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG ALONG LOW-LYING RIVER BASINS AND LAKES.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JDS
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