508
FXUS64 KMEG 091150
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
- A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR, WITH A THREAT FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL (UP TO 2 INCHES) AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH SEVERE STORM
CHANCES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING 40 KT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH THE MID-SOUTH TODAY, ALLOWING LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN
ABOVE 7 C/KM. THE LATEST CAMS DEPICT STORMS FIRING NEAR THE ARK-
LA-TEX BY MIDDAY AND PUSHING EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY,
THE MID-SOUTH WILL HOUSE AROUND 750 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND BULK SHEAR
IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. SMALL, ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL IMPACT THE
MID-SOUTH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND POSE A DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL THREAT. A FEW OF THE CAMS BRING SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS INTO THE MID-SOUTH. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. FORTUNATELY, THE SEVERE WEATHER
WINDOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO A CLOSE AFTER SUNSET WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW EJECTS OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. A MESSY
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL EMERGE AT THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW OPENS UP AND PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY AS
THESE FEATURES INTERACT. A LARGE WARM SECTOR WILL STRETCH FROM
TEXAS TO THE MIDWEST WITH STORMS FIRING OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE FRONT. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY, THOUGH A ROGUE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TREK EAST. KINEMATICS WILL BE PLENTIFUL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SUGGESTING ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, ONGOING MORNING SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR, LOW
CAPE ENVIRONMENT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES EXIST IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI, WHERE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN HOW
MODELS ARE TRENDING, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER TRIMMED THE SLIGHT RISK BACK IN LATER
ISSUANCES.
BY THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE MID-
SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID-MORNING WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAIN, BUT
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT DETAILS. STAY TUNED.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT MKL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. CAMS CONTINUE
TO FOCUS ON THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF TSRAS AND CONTINUED THAT THEME
IN THE TAFS. MEM AND TUP WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY THE TSRAS,
WITH LESSER CHANCES AT JBR AND MKL. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE (60-
70%) THAT LOWER CIGS (IFR AND MVFR) WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
AND THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS THIS MORNING WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT AT TUP WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER OUTSIDE OF TSRAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT THOUGH WILL REMAIN ABOVE THRESHOLD AT MEM.
TUP TAF WILL CARRY AN AMD NOT SKED. TUP METAR IS MISSING SOME
WEATHER ELEMENTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL OCCUR EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL INCREASE FUEL
MOISTURE AND MAINTAIN ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY, LIMITING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ002>006-
008-009-012>017-021>024.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ053>055-
089>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...SJM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page