989
FXUS64 KMEG 312334
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COOL-
DOWN TO NEAR-NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY MID TO EARLY NEXT
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OFFSHORE. OVER
THE MIDSOUTH, SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT, RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEW YEARS
HOLIDAY.
AN OPEN SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS FROM
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY. A SURFACE
WARM FRONT WILL RETURN LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS TO NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AROUND MIDDAY. ABOVE
THE SURFACE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, RESULTING IN PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.25 INCH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH,
WHICH IS AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40, WHERE SURFACE-BASED CAPE MAY REACH 150
J/KG.
THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL SLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT, AS IT PHASES WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE ON SATURDAY, BRIEFLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH, CLOUDS AND
POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, AS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE ENTERS THE GREAT
PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY THROUGH MIDWEEK
BUT STILL BRING +10 TO +12DAM 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. ABOVE NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
PWB
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
DRY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF BENIGN AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT, INCREASING
TO AROUND 8 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT MEM/JBR. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
MINIMUM RH WILL AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL BRING LIKELY WETTING RAINFALL TO THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER
THE WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...MJ
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