385
FXUS64 KMEG 260421
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1021 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES (70% TO 90%) GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT STALLS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ALONG
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, THERE HAVE BEEN
A FEW HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAINFALL AT TIMES, WITH PWAT VALUES
CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND THE 1" RANGE. SO FAR, SHOWERS HAVE NOT
BEEN ABLE TO TAP INTO ANY OF THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT IS
PRESENT, WHICH FAVORS TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING ON THE
UNDERPERFORMING SIDE OF THINGS. THE BULK OF GUIDANCE FAVORS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING LESS THAN 0.5" ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND
ALONG THE AL/MS LINE IN OUR AREA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EBB
AND FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH SHOWERS FINALLY
PUSHING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE MODEST MUCAPE ALONG THE INITIAL
BOUNDARY, THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST MS FOR SURFACE DESTABILIZATION. BY THE
AFTERNOON, MUCH OF THE FORCING WILL HAVE LIKELY PUSHED OUT OF THE
MID-SOUTH. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP A LOOSE EYE ON AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW (< 5%) IN ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHEAST MS FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALOFT AND A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL AT ALL, POST-
FRONTAL, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S
ON FRIDAY AND SPANNING THE 70S ON SATURDAY UNDER DRY CONDITIONS.
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW RECORD VALUES, THEY WILL BE NEAR 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY.
BY SUNDAY, SUBTLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD THROUGH THE REGION
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY WITH THIS OVERALL
PATTERN, WITH GEFS SOLUTIONS FAVORING A COLDER SOLUTION WHILE ENS
FAVORS A WARMER AND PROGRESSIVELY WETTER SOLUTION HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL PATH, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH HOW FAR ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
PINPOINT THE LOCATION FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE I-
40 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MEM AND MKL
AIRSPACE THROUGH SUNRISE OR A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER. NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL LINGER NEAR TUP INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH FROPA AND REMAIN AT LEAST MVFR THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL
SITES BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH THE 24-30 HR TAF CYCLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH RAIN
MOVING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
BY SATURDAY WITH SOME MINRH VALUES FALLING BELOW 40%. HOWEVER,
RECENT RAINS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE DRIEST LOCATIONS
WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JDS
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