849
FXUS64 KMEG 250458
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1158 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
A STALLED FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH MS THROUGH CENTRAL AR INTO
EASTERN OK THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. LIGHT NNE WINDS ARE ADVECTING IN DRY AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S. SOME SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO EAST AR LATE BUT MOST OF
THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. THE STALLED FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE MID-SOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON THURSDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
ARKANSAS.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL THE MIDSOUTH BY
MONDAY, FOCUSED ALONG A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND AIDED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI EARLIER
TODAY IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS EVENING, WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND THE THREAT OF RAIN. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AND MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH.
THIS PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE GREATER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS ON MONDAY AND
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT GETTING
CLOSER TO THE REGION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE REGION, SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY STARTING AROUND 18Z AT JBR, FOLLOWING
SUIT AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ORIGINALLY LOOKED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY, BUT THE LATEST CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT
ON THIS. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AIRSPACE BY MID
MORNING AND STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST/NORTHEASTERLY 6-9 KTS.
CAD
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CAD
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