136
FXUS64 KMEG 062347
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
647 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- SUMMER HEAT WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO THE MIDDLE 90S FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MS RIVER DELTA
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY AND OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
RECENT SATELLITE OBS SHOW AN ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEGINNING
TO STALL ACROSS FAR NE AR, MO BOOTHEEL AND NW TN. BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY NE WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
PROVIDE NO REAL RELIEF FROM SUMMER HEAT. A TRANSIENT SHOWER COULD
FORM ALONG OR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OR RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
THE PERSISTENT RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE USHERING
IN WARMER TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SWAMPY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT IN THE MS RIVER
DELTA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND FURTHER HEAT PRODUCTS INTO THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON THE TABLE.
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND COULD HELP LIMIT SOME OF THE HEAT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PHASE WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE SHOULD HELP
DRIVE POPS AS IT GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURES SYSTEMS
SIEGING THE FA. AFTER THIS WEAK SYSTEM AND POPS LOOK TO BE LIMITED
TO ANY AFTERNOON SUMMER-TIME POPUPS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND JBR OVERNIGHT FROM
DECAYING CONVECTION, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE
WITHIN THE 00Z TAF. THROUGH FRIDAY, AN INCREASE IN TSRA COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BEST
ZONE FOR TS IMPACTS WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. SO, HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S FOR
MEM/JBR/MKL TO COVER THE TS THREAT THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS OF THE MEM TAF, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF TS
IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO WARRANT ITS INTRODUCTION BEYOND 00Z
SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
LOWEST RH VALUES OF AT OR BELOW 40TH PERCENTILE REMAIN SOUTH OF
I-40 ACROSS N MS. A RETURN TO STHRLY FLOW FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO
RAISE MIN RHS BACK ABOVE THE 50TH PERCENTILE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
POPS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ049-058.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ007-010.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJB
AVIATION...JAB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page