455
FXUS64 KMEG 220442
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY, SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PEAK NEAR 90% ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN IN THE 30-50% RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE
LATE THIS WEEK. IN THE INTERIM, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TODAY
(WEDNESDAY), BUT WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND A WARM FRONTAL
SURGE ON THURSDAY. CAM CONSENSUS SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT - MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER FROM MIDMORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY'S ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PRECEDE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PRECEDED BY A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS. REMNANTS OF
AN UPSTREAM MCS TIED TO THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY ENTER EASTERN
AR FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG A SAGGING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PER 12Z LREF, STORMS WILL HAVE
ACCESS TO 500-750 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 25 TO 30KT OF DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR, SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
THREAT. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT EXITS NORTH MS.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BRINGS INCREASED STORMS CHANCES SUNDAY. A
RATHER POTENT-LOOKING NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
APPEARS LIKELY TO ROTATE THROUGH THE OZARKS MONDAY MORNING,
THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE 12Z/18Z MODEL CONSENSUS ON TIMING IS
MARGINAL. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION FROM THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE
VERIFIES, WE COULD SEE THIS POTENT TROUGH AXIS EJECTING THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY. STAY TUNED FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SETUP.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN U.S..
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE SOME MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS BETWEEN 6-9KFT. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL
GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
WILL BE LESS STRONG AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY PREVAILS AT
25 TO 35%. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON THURSDAY,
SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF WETTING RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CJC
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