558
FXUS64 KMEG 040452
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1152 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT WEEK. AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 109
DEGREES.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY,
MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: UNSEASONABLE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE
NEXT 15 DAYS. BY THIS WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PLACING THE MIDSOUTH UNDER
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK BACKDOOR SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. BUT WITHOUT A BACKING COLD
AIRMASS, THIS FRONT IS PROBABLY BETTER REFERRED TO AS A WIND
SHIFT. 850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 22-25C, WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING 100F IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY,
BASED ON DRYBULB TEMPS AND THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HEAT.
ENSEMBLE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER
RETURNING EAST, LIKELY SETTLING OVER OZARKS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE EFFECTIVE RIDGE, OR "HEAT DOME", WILL EXTEND FROM THE
4-CORNERS REGION, TO THE CAROLINAS. THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH, FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS, NBM CONTINUED TO BE 3-5 DEGREES TO WARM ON
DEWPOINTS ON THURSDAY. THIS MORNING'S OFFICIAL DEWPOINT FORECAST
WILL BE A 50/50 MIX OF CONSHORT AND NBM DETERMINISTIC OUT THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS, TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH PERSISTENCE IN THE
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
GENERALLY, SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED, BUT WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AFTER SUNSET.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN THURSDAY AND WITH VERY LOW
CHANCES OF WETTING RAINFALL. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 35 TO 40 PERCENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO
THE NORTH/ NORTHEAST AND LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO 30 TO
35 PERCENT. DUE TO DRY SOIL CONDITIONS, NIGHTTIME FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...DNM
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