459
FXUS64 KMEG 121814
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
114 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. WELL ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY, BRINGING
PLEASANT AND FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT BEHIND ISAIAS WILL LEAD TO WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. SO, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES
THIS HIGH WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WHERE
TWO OUT OF OUR FOUR CLIMATE SITES ARE FORECAST TO EITHER TIE OR
BREAK ALL TIME DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. ADDITIONALLY,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY, BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. HEAT INDICES WILL INCREASE IN TANDEM, APPROACHING 100 F
FOR MANY AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL, AND NORTHERN WEST TENNESSEE. AN AXIS OF MODERATE MUCAPE
(~1000 J/KG) WILL SET UP WITHIN THE ZONE OF HIGHER SURFACE
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH AND EAST. A SURFACE FRONT WILL THEN SAG
SOUTH, BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ACT AS A SOURCE OF LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE BOARD POINT TO WEAK SHEAR AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SO, SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE LIKELY MINIMAL WITH PREDOMINANTLY
ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS FROM MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SURFACE MOISTURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION, BRINGING MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT, SIGNALING THE END OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THIS WEEK THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST COME
THIS FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT, LIKELY POLAR IN
NATURE, WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE
THIS WEEK. EVENTUALLY, THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE MID-SOUTH,
OFFERING THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL-LIKE WEATHER THIS YEAR.
NORMALLY FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, BUT QPF
REMAINS AROUND ZERO. SO, TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME VERY MILD THIS
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 70S FOR MANY FRIDAY AND
INTO THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S SATURDAY, DROPPING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH AREAS IN NORTHERN WEST TENNESSEE POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE 30S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT MEM AND JBR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY MID-
MORNING ON TUESDAY AT JBR AND MEM. A FEW CU WILL START TO DEVELOP
ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS START TO CLIMB.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
DRY AIR HAS RETURNED TO THE MID-SOUTH WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO LOW 30S MONDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BACK ABOVE 40 PERCENT FOR MOST
AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DROP IN HUMIDITY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WILL SEE THE RETURN OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
40 PERCENT. A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY,
DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ELEVATED
20-FOOT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN FIRE
DANGER ESPECIALLY AS 10-HOUR FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY THIS WEEK FOR
MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
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