261
FXUS64 KMEG 051109
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT WEEK. AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 109 DEGREES.
- LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH OVER
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. OVERALL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO WORSEN IN THE COMING WEEKS WITH THIS PROLONGED HOT
AND DRY PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE PRIMARY FEATURE DRIVING THIS PATTERN IS A
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. DAILY TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE BECOMING COMMON
ACROSS THE REGION. WHEN COMBINED WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY, HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE FREQUENTLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 105°F DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OFFER LITTLE RELIEF, EXCEPT IN LOCALIZED AREAS
DIRECTLY BENEATH A CELL. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL
PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
NOTICEABLE RELIEF WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON MONDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 60S, KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. BECAUSE DRY AIR WARMS EFFICIENTLY, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
STILL REACH THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S, WITH LOW 100S POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL,
RANGING FROM 95°F TO 100°F. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THIS PERIOD, AND TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
BY LATE WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MID-
SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN
IS ANTICIPATED. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY REBUILD NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
OVERALL, HOT AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MID-
SEPTEMBER AND POTENTIALLY BEYOND, WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WORSENING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING CONTINUED LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WETTING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.
WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
OF 35 TO 40 PERCENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY,
USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY. WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT, DRY FUELS MAY
CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY. DUE TO DRY SOIL
CONDITIONS, NIGHTTIME FOG IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page