035
FXUS64 KMEG 052338
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
638 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DELTA REGION THROUGH 8PM
TODAY FOR HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105F.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH HEAT INDICES MAY LINGER CLOSER TO 100F AS OUR HEAT DOME
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN EACH DAY ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A VERY HUMID AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DISPLAYS WEAK TROUGHING CONTINUING TO EDGE CLOSER TO OUR
AREA WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAYS IMPACTING THE MID-SOUTH. THESE
FEATURES HAVE HELPED TO BRING MORE CLOUD COVER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED TODAY. THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER WARRANTED A
CANCELLATION OF OUR PREVIOUS HEAT ADVISORY IN AREAS NORTH OF THE
DELTA REGION WHERE HEAT INDICES 105+F ARE NOT EXPECTED. AREAS IN
THE DELTA REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM
TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES AND HUMID AIRMASS HAS CREATED AN
ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION AS WE HEAD
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DIGGING INTO THE PARAMETER SPACE THIS
AFTERNOON, WE'RE LOOKING AT AROUND 2500 J/KG OF SB AND MLCAPE,
AROUND 20 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.0 C/KM, DCAPE AROUND 800, DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S,
PWATS AROUND 1.9-2.2", AND A MICROBURST COMPOSITE OF AROUND 7-9.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW LIMITING FACTORS WITH CONVECTION TODAY
IN COMPARISON TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, CAPE IS AROUND 1000-
1500 J/KG LESS, CLOUD COVER IS INCREASED, DCAPE IS LESSENED, AND
SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED. TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND THE AMOUNT OF
SHEAR AVAILABLE AS WE MOVE FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS, ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
HEADING INTO THE WORKWEEK, WEAK TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A SURFACE FRONT DIPS SOUTH AND
NEARLY STALLS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THUS, CREATING A MESSY
PATTERN OVER OUR AREA AS A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. DAILY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS, WILL
EXIST AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO PUSH OVER THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH HEAT INDICES FLIRTING WITH THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. WE'RE LOOKING AT MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS COMPARED TO
DANGEROUS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
MOVING INTO LATE WEEK, WEATHER PATTERN DETAILS BECOME FURTHER
UNCLEAR, AS ENSEMBLES STRUGGLE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
EVOLUTION. OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY HOW
FAR EAST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PUSHES.
THERE REMAINS ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT TROUGHING BEGINS TO GET
SHOVED TO OUR EAST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
INCREASE CLOSER TO THE MID 90S. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALSO LOOKS TO INCREASE AS
POTENTIAL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. STAY
TUNED TO FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SCATTERED TSRA IS CURRENTLY PRESENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MID-
SOUTH AS OF 00Z WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUING TO
REGENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THESE BOUNDARIES TO CONTINUE
WORKING WEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
THEREFORE, HAVE RETAINED A PROB30 FOR TS AT MEM AND TUP. AVIATION
CONCERNS TURN TOWARDS VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THROUGH 12Z,
ESPECIALLY AT MKL WHERE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. MEM
AND TUP COULD SEE REDUCTIONS TO MVFR, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE 00Z TAFS.
VFR WILL RETURN TO THE AIRSPACE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH PROB30S THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD PAST 20Z - 21Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE 40 PERCENT. 20FT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JAB
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