441
FXUS64 KMEG 051106
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
506 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING EACH MORNING INTO SUNDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
LEADING TO MELTING OF RESIDUAL ICE, SLEET, AND SNOW.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
A CHILLY NIGHT IS PRESENT AT THIS HOUR WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTH WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED RESULTING IN CURRENT
WINDCHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT WILL BE BRISK WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY LEAD TO PLENTY OF SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE MELT LEAVING
MANY SURFACES WET. THESE WET SURFACES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
REFREEZE, LEADING TO YET ANOTHER DANGEROUS MORNING COMMUTE AND
SLIPPING HAZARDS. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AREAWIDE
AS UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER DAY ABOVE FREEZING WILL AID FURTHER IN
SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE MELT.
MOVING INTO FRIDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES LARGELY BENIGN. AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL BEGIN BUILDING
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INCREASING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. SOMETHING TO NOTE,
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL DROP NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING RESULTING IN MORE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS MORNING COMMUTES
AS WET SURFACES WILL LIKELY REFREEZE. A WEAK DRY SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL DIP DOWN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY, BRINGING US
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. SUNDAY WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS FILTER IN WARMER AIR.
NEXT WORKWEEK WILL SEE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
PERSISTENT RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT A TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE CALIFORNIA
BAJA BY LATE TUESDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH BY MID-WEEK. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AEH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
A MVFR CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE TN RIVER, WITH NO
IMPACTS TO ANY TERMINALS AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 8 KTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME, BEFORE
BACKING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY THE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AT A MINIMUM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TEETER AROUND
50%. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY, EDGING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. THERE IS NO FORECAST APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AEH
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA
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