619
FXUS64 KMEG 120411
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1111 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- WARM AND HUMID SUMMER DAYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. SOME LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH THE LOW 100S
BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
ANOTHER CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SPANNING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THERE IS SOME ONGOING CONVECTION OVER MIDDLE TN ALONG A LINGERING
BOUNDARY, HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE EAST
OF THE MID-SOUTH. OTHERWISE, A RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST IS ON
TAP FOR WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS LINGERING IN THE MID 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH TO EXCEED 105 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR THIS
REASON, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE
ONGOING, EXTREME HEAT, THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT SWING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE WANTS TO HAVE SOME
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN, AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THAT THIS IS A
RELATIVELY NEW TREND, OPTED AGAINST ANY MEANINGFUL MENTION IN OUR
POPS. IN ADDITION, ONE OF THE MORE POTENT SHORTWAVES COULD BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WELL TO OUR EAST. THE FORECAST WILL CARRY
SOME SMALL POPS (< 20%) MAINLY ALONG THE TN RIVER WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THIS REASON, BUT AGAIN THINK
THE BETTER CHANCES REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE MID-SOUTH.
BY FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO RELIEF EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT
WEEK. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE HAS MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH REACHING THE
UPPER 90S BY FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FURTHER BY
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOW 100S FOR
MANY. LATEST LREF GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS SAME TIME PERIOD HAS
GENERALLY A 40% TO 60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MS RIVER ON FRIDAY, WITH THESE PROBABILITIES
INCREASING TO THE 60% TO 80% RANGE BY SATURDAY. GUIDANCE DOES
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SPREAD BY NEXT TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. DESPITE THE SPREAD, CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
VERY WARM WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH,
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR TEMPORARY
RELIEF, YOU MAY NEED TO LOOK SOMEWHERE ELSE OUTSIDE OF THE MID-
SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN TOMORROW, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE OF SOME SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, THIS WAS NOT MENTIONED FOR ANY TAF SITES BUT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR FUTURE ISSUANCES. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
BECOME W/WSW THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND 7 KTS OR BELOW AND GO
SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
A TYPICAL, SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEAVES BE ABOVE 40% WITH 20FT WINDS AT
OR BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ009-
018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ113-
115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CMA
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