885
FXUS64 KMEG 231740
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1240 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND BEGINS MIDWEEK.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE WEEK WILL BRING OUR NEXT SHOT AT
RAINFALL FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A MUCH COOLER DAY (15-25 DEGREES) IS ON DISPLAY ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH WITH NORTHEAST WINDS REMAINING GUSTY, GENERALLY 25-35 MPH,
AS THIS MORNING'S DRY COLD FRONT SITS JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE CHILLY, IN THE 40S, AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO LOOSEN AND WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX.
TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOWER 70S, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASED AS UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE
REGION. AS THESE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST, A FEW SPRINKLES COULD FALL
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER, DECREASED DEWPOINTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINTING AT A VERY DRY AIR COLUMN, LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REACH THE SURFACE. AS SUCH, POPS ARE
<20%.
THIS COOLDOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG, HOWEVER, AS A WARMING TREND
BEGINS WEDNESDAY, AIDED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THAT BROUGHT THIS PAST
WEEKEND'S RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO BROADEN EAST. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS USHERING IN WARM AIR,
THURSDAY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. NBM
PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES >85F ARE 40-60% ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH. ALL FOUR OF OUR CLIMATE SITES (MEM AT 86, JBR AT 87, MKL
AT 86, AND TUP AT 89) ARE FORECAST TO NEARLY TIE OR BREAK RECORD
HIGHS THURSDAY.
LUCKILY, ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH A
COLOCATED SURFACE LOW PUSHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BEGIN DIPPING DOWN ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY BREAKING DOWN THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SLIGHTLY. FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON COULD
BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT APPRECIABLE RAINFALL, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-40. FORECAST PWATS, NORTH OF I-40, ARE AROUND 1.4", NEARING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, HOWEVER, LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DOES LOOK PRETTY
LACKLUSTER. BOTTOM LINE, SHOWERS FRIDAY WILL BE NOTHING TO WRITE
HOME ABOUT AS QPF AMOUNTS TOP OUT AT AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, WILL TAKE A DIVE (15-25 DEGREES) FOLLOWING
THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S AS A
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. SOMETHING TO NOTE,
THE LATEST CPC 8-14 OUTLOOK HAS US LEANING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TO ROUND OUT MARCH AND HEADING
INTO APRIL. STAY TUNED..
AEH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, COURTESY OF A DRY
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. POST-SUNSET WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST AND LOSE GUST POTENTIAL, IN THE FORMING NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ON TUESDAY, WITH A 1030MB
SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
BEHIND THIS MORNING'S DRY COLD FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO PLACE WITH GUSTY (UP TO 30 MPH) NORTHEAST 20 FT WINDS
REMAINING OVER THE MID-SOUTH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE ALSO DROPPED TO AROUND 20-35% WITH LOWERED DEWPOINTS. A
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS LED
TO A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
TOMORROW, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN AROUND 25-35%,
BUT GUSTS WILL FINALLY DROP OUT, LEADING TO LESS OF A FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN. BY MIDWEEK, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A
WARMING TREND BEGINS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 35-45
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB
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