565  
FXUS64 KMEG 300542  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1142 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 832 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025  
 
A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS LIFTING OUT OF THE SW US AND INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ON THE  
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS  
IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AR AND NORTH MS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL  
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT  
WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NE AR COULD HAVE A HALF  
INCH OR MORE BY SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS  
MOSTLY IN THE 40S. THE HEAVIER RAINS ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS THE  
UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 RESIDE IN  
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR AN EXTENDED  
PERIOD OF TIME. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-SOUTH  
ON THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF  
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40,  
WHERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE  
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD  
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARMING  
TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70  
DEGREES.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025  
 
A MILD WINTER DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE  
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW  
40 PERCENT. THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING  
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE IS  
ADVECTED POLEWARD.  
 
A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,  
WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MULTIPLE  
PERTURBATIONS, EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WILL ROTATE  
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE WAVES OF  
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND  
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO MAX  
OUT CLIMATOLOGY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY SURGE TO 1.6 INCHES.  
12Z HREF GUIDANCE HAS ZEROED IN ON A BAND OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND  
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP NORTH OF AND PARALLEL TO  
INTERSTATE 40. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH TO COVER MOST  
OF THE COUNTIES NORTH OF I-40, WHERE TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF  
RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE.  
 
ANOTHER EMERGING THREAT IS STRONG WIND GUSTS, MAINLY TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER  
THE OZARKS AND A 60 KNOTS LOW LEVEL JET. HREF GUIDANCE IS PINGING  
ON 40 MPH GUSTS, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED  
TIMEFRAME. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY, DUE TO  
THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE UNCERTAIN POSITION  
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.  
 
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT  
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD  
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 60S DURING THE DAY  
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN NEXT WEEK AS UPPER  
LEVEL HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY BUILD AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY  
ZONAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.  
 
AC3  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025  
 
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH  
INITIALLY LIMITED IMPACTS. CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO  
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN  
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL  
ACCOMPANY THIS PRECIPITATION WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP  
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  
 
FARTHER SOUTH, COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH A MORE LIKELY  
AFTERNOON LULL IN PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST CAMS KEEP THE MEM AREA  
VERY CLOSE TO THE PERSIST BAND OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE  
LIMITED THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SO IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE  
CURRENT TAF. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MORE FOCUSED OPPORTUNITY FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE PRIMARY WAVE MOVES  
ACROSS THE AREA. PROB30 THUNDER WAS INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028.  
 
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.  
 
MS...NONE.  
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-019-020-048-  
051.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...SJM  
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3  
AVIATION...MJ  
 
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