004
FXUS64 KMEG 180007 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
707 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE MID 80S BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH
TODAY, RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
SHOULD A CLIMATE SITE REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK, IT WILL BEAT OUR
AVERAGE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY BY A MONTH. THE LATEST NBM PAINTED A
15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TN/KY
BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS POTENTIAL AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS DON'T
SUPPORT MENTIONABLE POPS. DECREASED RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE.
THIS AFTERNOON, THE CENTER OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW WILL
MANEUVER ALONG THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES / CANADIAN BORDER WITH
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS. A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN THE KS/OK
VICINITY AND TREK EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. REMNANTS OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE MID-SOUTH AROUND 4AM. SHOWERS AND A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES SOUTHEAST. A SOMEWHAT TRICKY FORECAST WILL
EMERGE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR WILL
APPROACH 45 KTS. WHILE THESE INGREDIENTS TYPICALLY FAVOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT QUICKLY OVERTAKING ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. A
STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE WINDOW FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS HELD OFF ON ISSUING A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE NEW DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DUE TO SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND DISPLACEMENT
FROM THE DEEP-LAYER FORCING. FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES MAY INCLUDE
A MARGINAL OUTLOOK AS DETAILS BECOME MORE REFINED. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL REMAIN MEAGER ON SATURDAY WITH A MAX OF .75 INCHES
ANTICIPATED.
COOL AND DRY AIR WILL FUNNEL INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MINRH
FALLS NEAR 25 TO 30 PERCENT. LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE THE NEED
FOR A RED FLAG WARNING, BUT DEAD FUEL MOISTURE OF 10 PERCENT MAY
NECESSITATE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR BOTH DAYS. BY
TUESDAY, HIGHER DEW POINTS RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID 80S.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES NEXT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS
LOW.
ANS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER IMPACT THIS EVENING WILL BE MARGINAL
LLWS IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AT MEM
AND MKL, BUT LATEST CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES ISOLATED PREFRONTAL
TSRA MAY MAKE AN APPEARANCE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. HRRR SOUNDINGS
DEPICT MODEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAT BECOMES ELEVATED
PERSISTS ABOUT AN HOUR AFTER SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A FEW HOURS OF POST-FRONTAL IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY AT MEM, MKL
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING PUSH
OF DRY CONTINENTAL AIR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
FIRE WEATHER DANGER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MINRH DROPS
TO 25-30 PERCENT. 20FT WINDS AT THIS TIME WILL BE LIGHT, BUT DEAD
FUEL MOISTURE NEAR 10 PERCENT MAY NECESSITATE A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR BOTH DAYS. FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL DECREASES
ON TUESDAY AS ELEVATED DEWPOINTS FUNNEL BACK INTO THE MID-SOUTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
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