630
FXUS64 KMEG 221142
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
642 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY, BRINGING COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST CORNERS OF THE MID-SOUTH, OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA
HAS DRIED OUT WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LINGERING STORMS
APPEAR TO BE RIDING RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS
EARLIER IN THE DAY, WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT INTO THE HOURS NEAR SUNRISE, SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL ON
MONDAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT
FOLLOWING SUNRISE. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUESDAY, THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TO THE SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL DRY OUT BY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 80S ACROSS OUR NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THAT WILL NOT SEE RELIEF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. IF THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY PANS OUT, THIS WILL PUT MEMPHIS WITH FIFTY
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF AT LEAST 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THIS IS THE
SECOND LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAY STREAK, WITH A 54 DAY STREAK IN
1980 TAKING FIRST PLACE.
LUCKILY, 1980 WILL LIKELY BE KEEPING THAT RECORD AS WE WILL
FINALLY BREAK OUT OF THE 90S ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING THE AREA,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN BRINGING A MORE SEASONABLE
AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS STILL APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES. WHILE THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE END OF SEPTEMBER, THEY ARE CERTAINLY WELCOME COMPARED TO THE
10 TO 15 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
OVER THE PAST MONTH AND A HALF.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LIKELY SIGNIFYING A PATTERN SHIFT. TAKING A LOOK
AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, GUIDANCE DOES BEGIN TO
BECOME A BIT MORE SPREAD. ENS GUIDANCE TENDS TO FAVOR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING, WHILE GEFS GUIDANCE BRINGS A SLIGHT WARM
UP BACK TO THE REGION. EVEN IF THE GEFS SOLUTION PLAYS OUT, WE
WOULD NOT BE GETTING CLOSE TO ANY RECORDS AGAIN, JUST REMAINING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS. UNFORTUNATELY, ONE THING
GUIDANCE DOES TEND TO AGREE ON IS A DRY PATTERN PERSISTING FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS WILL NOT HELP ALREADY WORSENING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS WE
MOVE THROUGH OUR DRY SEASON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
A CLUSTER OF -SHRAS AND -TSRAS WILL IMPACT JBR IN THE SHORT TERM,
HIGHLIGHTED BY A PROB30 TO CAPTURE LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE TIMING.
HIGH-RESOLUTION SATELLITE SHOWS A POST-FRONTAL MVFR STRATUS DECK
ADVANCING SOUTH INTO THE JBR AND MKL VICINITY. SATELLITE TRENDS
SUPPORT A 30% CHANCE OF THIS MVFR DECK PERSISTING THROUGH MID-
MORNING BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INITIATES CLEARING.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALONGSIDE OCCASIONAL
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT TUP REMAINS BELOW 20%, KEEPING
TSRA/SHRA MENTION OUT OF THE TAF.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY, NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 40% THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH DRY SOILS CONTINUING AMONGST THE
ONGOING DROUGHT. PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL MONDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...AC3
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