119
FXUS64 KMEG 230300
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS
DAYTIME HIGHS PREVAIL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE, AS VEGETATION REMAINS DRY
AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
ANOTHER COPY AND PASTE EVENING CURRENTLY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60S. CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO DECENT COOLING ONCE AGAIN INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S TO 50S. VERY
LITTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY,
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD THROUGH THE REGION.
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN, SIMILAR TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S TO LOW 80S
AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. THIS
WILL SPELL CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS, SO PLEASE
CONTINUE TO HEED TO ANY LOCAL BURN BANS AND RESTRICTIONS.
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE VERY LITTLE
CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST AS A DRY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE REGION SATURDAY, BEFORE
EVENTUALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN INTO NEXT WEEK. OVER THIS
TIMEFRAME, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. WHILE WE MAY
STILL SEE A FEW LOCATIONS REACH INTO THE LOW 80S ON SATURDAY,
SUNDAY ONWARD WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS CAPPED IN THE 70S AS A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, WE MAY FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE A
PATTERN SHIFT. THERE ARE STILL NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN LREF
GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. SOME GUIDANCE DOES BRING A PATTERN
SHIFT BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH PRECIPITATION
FINALLY RETURNING, WHILE OTHERS KEEP A DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARM
FORECAST. AS SUCH, THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
NEAR THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THERE COULD
FINALLY BE A POTENTIAL END IN SIGHT TO THE COPY / PASTE FORECAST
WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGHOUT THE MID-SOUTH WITH LIGHT EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH MANY LOCATIONS FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER, CURRENT 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE FORECASTS DO
KEEP THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH JUST ABOVE 10 PERCENT, WITH MOST VALUES
IN THE 11 TO 13 PERCENT RANGE. WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BEING THE ONLY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST, OPTED AGAINST AN ADDITIONAL RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR NOW. IF VALUES DO BEGIN TO COME IN LOWER OR 20-FOOT
WIND SPEEDS BECOME ELEVATED, WHICH THE INCREASE IN WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED, THEN AN RFD MAY BE WARRANTED FRIDAY. INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY INCREASE ABOVE 30 PERCENT, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS BASED ON
THE LATEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS AND 10-HOUR DEAD FUEL
MOISTURE ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JAB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page