790
FXUS64 KMEG 141133
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
633 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM, PREVENTING
RECOVERY AND CREATING STRESS FOR AT-RISK POPULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE MID-SOUTH IS TRAPPED
UNDER A 594 DAM RIDGE AS OF THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE INTO FRIDAY FOR OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK THUS FAR WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN LACKLUSTER UNDER THIS RIDGE, SO
SINGLE CELL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
NOT AID IN MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. STORMS THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD ARE NOT LIKELY TO THREATEN SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
WITH AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
8 PM SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY EVENING, RETURN FLOW FINALLY EASES AND A
MORE ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL EMERGE. THIS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, FILTER IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR REDUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES.
DESPITE THE NORTHWEST FLOW, PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM ARE NIL
FOR ANY MENTIONABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO RAPID ONSET DROUGHT CONDITIONS. TO INCREASE
CONFIDENCE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID ONSET DROUGHT, LONG TERM
GUIDANCE FAVORS ANOTHER RIDGE SLIDING EAST LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. HEAT HEADLINES ARE UNCERTAIN FOR
EARLY INTO THE WORK WEEK, BUT COULD VERY EASILY MAKE ANOTHER
APPEARANCE LATE NEXT WEEK IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. FOR NOW,
CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY AND PREPARE FOR ANOTHER HOT
WEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE. A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A FEW SHORT-LIVED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AT JBR AND
MEM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
HOT AND PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. NO
WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. DESPITE THE DRYING OF FUELS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT WITH LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 20-FOOT WINDS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ007-010-011-
020.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ001>006-008-009-
012>017-021>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AC3
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