493
FXUS64 KMEG 131749
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1149 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AMIDST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
- WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
- A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S STARTING WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO SLIDE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND IS NOW CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE EASTERLIES WILL STILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE EAST
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF TEXAS WHICH WILL SHADOW THE UPPER TROUGH'S MOTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WAA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE
LOW, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE RAINFALL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS BATCH OF RAIN WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS BENEATH THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING,
WHICH WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN-MOST REGION OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, QPF DURING THIS INITIAL 12Z SATURDAY - 03Z
SUNDAY TIMEFRAME WILL ONLY BE IN THE 0.1" TO 0.25" RANGE.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST, FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH BY THIS TIME WILL BE CENTERED
SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE DRAWN UP PWATS FROM BETWEEN
1.00" (90TH PERCENTILE) AND ~1.40" (97TH-99TH PERCENTILE).
FORCING FROM BOTH A DEVELOPING OCCLUDED FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL PIVOT EASTWARD
THROUGH THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE, INCREASING RAINFALL RATES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, WEAK INSTABILITY (< 100 J/KG) WILL
BE PRESENT AS FAR NORTH AS I-40, INCREASING TO AROUND 500 J/KG
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THEREFORE, SOME LOCAL, CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT TO RAINFALL RATES IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z SUNDAY AND
00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE AS THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES, ENOUGH
WEAKENING OF FRONTAL FORCING THROUGHOUT THE DAY COULD COUNTERACT
THE INFLUENCE OF INSTABILITY ON RAIN AMOUNTS. REGARDLESS, 6-HOUR
FFG REMAINS ABOVE 3" FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THANKS TO D2 AND HIGHER
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, AN AXIS OF 1.0" TO 2.0" OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-40 WITH AROUND
AN 1.0" ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SINCE THE SURFACE
LOW WILL HAVE BEGUN FILLING IN, CAA BEHIND IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK. THEREFORE, HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S
APART FROM A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. AS THE
WEEK CONTINUES, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING, LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO WARM FURTHER IN THIS
REGIME WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
TUESDAY AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
CLIMATE RECORDS SHOW THAT, AT LEAST WITHIN CURRENT GUIDANCE,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH WITHIN 3 - 5 DEGREES OF THE
HIGH-MAX RECORDS. SO, NEXT WEEK IS CERTAINLY LOOKING WARM AND DRY
TO FINISH OUT THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNMODIFIED AND SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED VFR.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY, LIKELY PASSING
THROUGH MEM SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. SHRA AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT TS CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 25% AND 35%
TODAY. WET FUELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN LOW FIRE DANGER.
MORE WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1.5" TO 2".
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING ALONGSIDE A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page