737
FXUS64 KMEG 041112
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
512 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK DOWN BELOW
FREEZING EACH MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL LEAD TO MELTING
OF RESIDUAL ICE, SLEET, AND SNOW.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SOUTHWEST BACK INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. INCREDIBLY
DENSE FOG AFFECTED A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-SOUTH EARLIER DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF RAINFALL MELTING SNOW, ICE, AND SLEET.
HOWEVER, DENSE FOG HAS SINCE EXITED THE REGION AS NOTICEABLY
DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. GOES EAST NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS RGB CHANNEL REVEALS LOW STRATUS CREEPING SOUTH AND
WEST FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. SIMULTANEOUSLY,
HIGH CIRRUS IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT PROMOTING LOW LEVEL MIXING.
NONETHELESS, MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AREAWIDE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT MORE SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING'S COMMUTE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREST ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUNGING BACK DOWN WELL
BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY MORNING. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS ARE
LIKELY TO BE A CONCERN AGAIN FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE ANOTHER MORNING BELOW FREEZING BEFORE
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL
PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. A DRY PACIFIC-ORIGIN COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DISPLACES TROUGHING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY AND WARM PATTERN
THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
EACH MORNING. THIS WARMER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF RESIDUAL ICE, SLEET,
AND SNOW ACROSS THE REGION, FURTHER IMPROVING RECOVERY EFFORTS
ACROSS THE REGION.
LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DAMPEN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A MORE ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET BRINGING INCREASED
MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LONG RANGE NBM
BRINGS IN A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, BUT IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL DUE TO CURRENT MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR JBR, WITH MVFR CIGS ACROSS MKL AND
TUP. THE LINE OF VFR/MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO HOVER JUST EAST OF
MEM, BUT DO EXPECT FOR THESE CIGS TO SPREAD WESTWARD TOWARDS MEM
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR WITH PATCHY FOG
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TUP THROUGH THE MORNING. MEM/MKL WILL
BEGIN TO SEE CLOUDS SCATTER BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH TUP BEGINNING
TO CLEAR NEAR SUNSET. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, UP TO AROUND 10 KTS, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO AROUND 5
KTS AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH NO WETTING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CMA
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