182  
FXUS64 KMEG 071126  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
626 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
UPDATE
 
 
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 352 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
A RINSE AND REPEAT FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.BE PREPARED FOR  
YET ANOTHER SOUPY MORNING WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW  
80S AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS TODAY WILL  
LOOK A LOT LIKE YESTERDAYS HIGHS, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100  
DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES  
SO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE  
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER  
80S.  
 
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS  
AFTERNOON. WITH ROBUST INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL SHEAR VALUES, MAIN  
HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING. MOST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL CEASE BY EVENING WITH THE  
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE GREATEST AREA FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT  
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE  
RIVER.  
 
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON A  
RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE AREA WILL MOVE WESTWARD  
ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE MID-SOUTH. AS THE  
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH. MAIN HAZARDS FRIDAY WILL  
BE DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING. SHOWERS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BECOME A BIT  
COOLER. WE'LL SEE THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WITH  
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.  
 
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WON'T LAST LONG AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN  
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK WILL BE BACK IN THE  
UPPER 90S, APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. AFTER MID-WEEK MODELS  
INDICATE MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
SWB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
/12Z TAFS/  
 
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TODAY  
WITH A 4-6 KT AGL DIURNAL CU FIELD. ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED  
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD  
BE LIMITED. THERE IS A POTENTIAL TOWARD 00Z FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR  
THUNDERSTORMS TO CLIP NORTHWEST TN, POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE MKL  
AREA, SO SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED FOR A FEW HOURS. NOT ENOUGH  
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDED THUNDER TODAY. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER AND  
BENIGN FLYING CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 6-10 KTS.  
 
MJ  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CLAY-  
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-  
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST. FRANCIS.  
 
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR  
DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.  
 
MS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR  
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-  
LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-  
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-  
YALOBUSHA.  
 
TN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR  
BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-  
GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-  
LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.  
 

 
 

 
 
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