448
FXUS64 KMEG 091040
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
540 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
THROUGH THURSDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY FROM
11 AM TO 8 PM FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
A LARGE 597 DAM UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD STRONG ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED IN
HUMID AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM ON
WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH EXCEPT NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHEAST WEST TENNESSEE WHERE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION. BEFORE ANY ASSOCIATED RAIN ARRIVES, TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S, AND ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
IN PLACE, THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT STRUGGLES TO PUSH SOUTH. AS
A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING SYSTEM AND THE GENERAL UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION, EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS TO UNDERWHELM. THE LREF
DEPICTS A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ONE QUARTER INCH OR MORE. A
FEW STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR MAINLY LATER THURSDAY ALONG THE
KENTUCKY AND MISSOURI BORDERS, BUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR
WILL LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-STRENGTHEN DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE HEAT ADVISORIES OVER AT
LEAST PART OF THE AREA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS WELL. THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO
LOOK HOT WITH THE STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE PREVAILING OVER THE REGION
AND THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT S/SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S WINDS 8-11 KTS TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS
POSSIBLE AT JBR, THEN DECREASING TO 6 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES MOSTLY ABOVE 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 20 FT
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ001-002-007-008-010>013-020-021.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-048>053-088>090.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CJC
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