837
FXUS64 KMEG 301819
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1219 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS..
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT MONDAY EVENING
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40, WITH EXPECTED MINOR IMPACTS TO ROADWAYS
AND BRIDGES.
- DRY CONDITIONS RESUME BY MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
THE MID-SOUTH SITS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LINGERING CLOUD DECK SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL VARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY, WITH AREAS NEAR
KENTUCKY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER SOUTH, TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 50 DEGREES.
A COMPLEX FORECAST EMERGES ON MONDAY AS A GULF LOW TRACKS OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
ELEVATED MOISTURE INTO THE MID-SOUTH, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
FEW MODELS DEPICT MOISTURE ARRIVING EARLIER, WHICH SUGGESTS A
BRIEF WINDOW OF A WINTRY MIX MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS ARE LOW (<15%). INSTEAD, EXPECT FREEZING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW 32 DEGREES. ONE MAJOR CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY'S FORECAST
IS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKER WARM NOSE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. A FEW FLAKES MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS FEATURE,
RESULTING IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FALL. HOWEVER, THE LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE PREDOMINANT WINTER PRECIPITATION MODE WILL
BE FREEZING RAIN. SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT
SLICK ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-
40. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 6PM MONDAY
FOR THIS REGION.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. ON THURSDAY, A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND TREK ACROSS KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, MOISTURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE FOR THE MID-SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTING YET ANOTHER
WINTRY MIX OCCURRING NORTH OF I-40. LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND RUN-TO-
RUN INCONSISTENCIES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION LOW
(<20%). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
ANS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
LOWER CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT OF TUP. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF PL DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY
DUE TO A LAYER OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB. STEADY RAIN WILL DEVELOP
AT MEM BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR. THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE OF IFR CIGS AT
MEM BY 00Z MONDAY. NO LLWS OR TSRAS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE AS MINRH VALUES STAY ABOVE 40% AND 20FT WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...SJM
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