032
FXUS64 KMEG 271725
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING NEAR 115 DEGREES.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED HUMIDITY ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK,
OFFERING RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME CONDITIONS.
- PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
LOW-CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
AS A ROBUST 598+ DAM RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE, WITH HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING
110 DEGREES AGAIN TOMORROW. CONSEQUENTLY, AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM TOMORROW.
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ENCOMPASSES THE CONUS, CHARACTERIZED
BY A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS CONFIGURATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LARGELY STAGNANT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. HOWEVER, A
TROUGH ORIGINATING IN CENTRAL CANADA IS PROJECTED TO DIVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AFTER MIDWEEK, FACILITATING
THE EROSION OF THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH.
A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL HELP USHER A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE EARLY WEDNESDAY, PROGRESSING
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS BY THE EVENING.
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL TREND COOLER
AS THE WESTERN RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. HIGHS THROUGH
SATURDAY ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, REMAINING
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL BY SATURDAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT
MAY PROVIDE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR REGIONAL RAINFALL IN
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT SUMMERTIME FORECASTING OFTEN
DEPENDS ON MESOSCALE FEATURES BELOW THE RESOLUTION OF NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS REMAINS LOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER REGARDING THE CONTINUED COOLING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MID-
80S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WEST WINDS 3-8KTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS
WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS MINRH
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 40% AND 20FT WINDS STAY BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ001>017-
020>024.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
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