333  
FXUS64 KMEG 271141 AAA  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
641 AM CDT WED SEP 27 2023  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED SEP 27 2023  
 
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE (30-40%) OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEST TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE  
WEEK. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH FRIDAY WITH  
SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED SEP 27 2023  
 
NEARLY ALL OBSERVATION SITES IN THE CWA ARE READING CALM WINDS AS  
OF 330 AM CDT. THERE IS ALSO A BROAD AXIS OF 1 DEGREE DEWPOINT  
DEPRESSIONS ORIENTED FROM PARIS, TN TO BATESVILLE, MS, ALONG WHICH  
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE. OTHER THAN THE EARLY  
MORNING FOG, THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND  
ANOMALOUSLY WARM. FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE LOW TO  
MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS SITTING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE  
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECORD HIGHS ARE IN DANGER FOR  
MEMPHIS, JACKSON, AND JONESBORO TODAY.  
 
THIS EVENING, AN UPPER LOW WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MID-SOUTH IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A  
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THIS UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL HELP USHER  
AN MCS DOWN INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE MOST POTENT KINEMATICS  
OF THIS SYSTEM LOOK DISPLACED TO OUR NORTHEAST, BUT SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER  
MIDNIGHT AS THIS DECAYING MCS APPROACHES. TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM  
HAS SLOWED A BIT WITH THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS; THE PERIOD WITH THE  
HIGHEST POPS (30-40%) IS NOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. AFTER THIS ROUND OF RAIN, A  
MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT IS ON THE HORIZON THAT WILL WIPE OUT ANY  
ACTIVE WEATHER CHANCES FOR AT LEAST A WEEK.  
 
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A WELL-DEFINED OMEGA BLOCK WILL SET UP  
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. A 590 DAM UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SET  
UP OVER US BY FRIDAY EVENING AND PARK ITSELF THERE FOR THE  
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY WARM  
(LOW 90S IN THE AFTERNOON) WITH NEGLIGIBLE RAIN CHANCES. ON THE  
BRIGHT SIDE, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP HUMIDITY AT  
BAY AND ACTUALLY FAIRLY PLEASANT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. LONG  
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS OMEGA BLOCK STARTING TO BREAK  
DOWN MIDWEEK, BUT EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THEN.  
 
CAD  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED SEP 27 2023  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT  
30 HOURS. EARLY MORNING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER  
VALLEY WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH TAF SITES. SIMILAR  
EXPECTATION TONIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR A  
FRONTAL WAVE AROUND 06Z OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  
 
KMEM SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT MAY EXCEED 7KT LATE IN THE TAF  
PERIOD, WITH A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT COINCIDING  
WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
PWB  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD  
AVIATION...PWB  
 
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