111
FXUS64 KMEG 221703
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1203 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDWEEK,
EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT ACROSS THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
TWO MCSS ARE ONGOING AS OF 11 AM, ONE IN EASTERN KANSAS AND THE
OTHER IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE SYSTEM IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS
LIKELY TO WEAKEN/DIP SOUTH AND MISS THE MID-SOUTH, BUT THE KANSAS
SYSTEM TRACK IS LIKELY TO SKIRT ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INVERTED-V
MODEL SOUNDINGS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM, COMBINED WITH A BIT OF DRY
AIR, WILL SUPPORT HAIL GROWTH AS WELL, WHICH IS WELL REPRESENTED
BY THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MUCH OF THE
12Z CAM GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 3-10 PM AS THE
MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES, THE MID-SOUTH IS SUSCEPTIBLE
TO SYSTEMS THREATENING DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK. TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL BE REFINED AS CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION BECOMES CLEARER. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS EACH
DAY, THIS DOES KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE 'COOLER SIDE' WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (LOW TO MID 90S) INSTEAD OF THE EXTREME
HEAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THUS FAR. PROBABILITIES FOR HEAT INDEX
VALUES ABOVE 105F ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20% THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, WITH SOME LOCAL HOT SPOTS IN THE DELTA REGION. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST IN THIS PATTERN STICKING AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DECREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO MODEL DIVERGENCE. BE SURE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
AFTERNOON PLANS!
DNM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
REMNANTS OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) WILL TRANSLATE SE
INTO JBR AND MEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH SCATTERED
TSRAS DEVELOPING. FURTHER EAST, MAINLY DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRAS AT BOTH MKL AND TUP.
COVERAGE REMAINS TOO BROAD TO UPGRADE BEYOND A VCTS AT MEM AND
JBR AND ONLY PROB30S WERE MAINTAINED AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE N
AND NNE TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG NEAR DAYBREAK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE REGION AND DROPPED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE LOWER 40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WITH THIS DRIER AIR
FILTERING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER, LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS, DAILY RAIN CHANCES, AND ADEQUATE OVERALL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SAFELY AT BAY. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO
CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
PARTICULARLY ALONG LOW-LYING RIVER BASINS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AC3
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