102
FXUS64 KMEG 311807
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
107 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.
STRONGER STORMS WILL POSE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR POTENTIALLY TWO ROUNDS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ON MONDAY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.
- A COLD FRONT WILL DELIVER DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN PLAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AS A SCATTERED
STRATUS DECK MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST 15Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS DENOTES A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS
ON DISPLAY ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MID-
AFTERNOON POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT TODAY AS SBCAPE
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER, TODAY
WILL BE LARGELY QUIET WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION AS WE REMAIN
LARGELY CAPPED, THOUGH, THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH SOME
AREAS, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI
STATELINE LIKELY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S.
TOMORROW, HOWEVER, WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, TODAY'S STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND SURFACE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO WOBBLE OVER THE MID-SOUTH. AS WE MOVE INTO MORE
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME, TOMORROW IS SHAPING UP TO BE
UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO PUSH A FEW MCSS
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF CAMS HAVE
DISPLAYED AN EARLY MORNING, LATEST CONSENSUS IS AROUND SUNRISE,
MCS MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR AREA FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI. LOOKING
AT PARAMETER SPACING WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE INDICATING UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE, AROUND 35 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM, AROUND
1200 J/KG OF DCAPE, AND PWATS AROUND 1.7-1.8", NEARING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. GIVEN THIS EARLY TO MID-
MORNING ENVIRONMENT, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. THIS FIRST SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT
THE MID-SOUTH AS EARLY AS NOON. TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE A WARM ONE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH SOME AREAS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA REGION, POTENTIALLY SEEING HEAT INDICES
IN EXCESS OF 100F.
LOOK FOR A SNEAKY SECONDARY CLUSTER OF STORMS LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND COLD
FRONT. THE STORM MODE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS HARD TO NAIL DOWN
RIGHT NOW, BUT GIVEN THE DECENT RECOVERY TIME AND PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON, THE PARAMETER SPACE IS LOOKING PRETTY
JUICY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT
MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE (2500-3500 J/KG), DCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG,
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7 C/KM, STP AROUND 2, AND PWATS AROUND 2", WHICH IS NEARING THE
97TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THIS CLUSTER, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, A POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, AND MAYBE
EVEN A ROGUE TORNADO OR TWO. OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS AROUND A
2/5 FOR TOMORROW SINCE THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF BOTH SYSTEMS IS
LIKELY TO CHANGE.
MOVING INTO TUESDAY, WE FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK OUT OF THIS NEARLY
3 WEEK WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH PAST THE
MID-SOUTH WITH A COOLER, AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
IT. LOWERED DEWPOINTS (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) BEGIN TO FILTER IN
TUESDAY, RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
KEEPING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HOWEVER, AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES, A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS (15% POPS)
MAY FIND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS. LOOKING AHEAD AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NEXT WEEKEND, AS
AN UPPER-LOW BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW RESCHEME BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
LATEST CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS US ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION INTO MID JUNE.
AEH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
SIGNAL FOR MVFR FOG AT MKL AND TUP AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS GO
CALM OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH A COMPLEX OF TSRA INTO THE AREA TOMORROW
MORNING AND POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL SITES. THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH A PROB30 ADDED
FOR POTENTIAL TSRA TIMING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN
5 KNOTS) AND QUITE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEEK. AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO TUESDAY, WITH SPORADIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAINING HIGH HUMIDITY AND FUEL MOISTURE.
A DRIER PATTERN WILL EMERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES BEGIN TO FALL BELOW 50%.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...AC3
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