428
FXUS64 KMEG 190532
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MUCH COLDER AIR IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 992MB SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS PARENT LOW IS STRETCHING A WEAK COLD
FRONT JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MID-SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR ALOFT AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE ARKLATEX,
WILL HAVE THIS FRONT WASH OUT BEFORE IT CAN CROSS THE REGION. THE
FRONT, HOWEVER, HAS HAD ENOUGH MOISTURE PULL FOR SOME SPRINKLES
AND DRIZZLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT AND
STAGE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THURSDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ONCE MORE AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
ARE IN STORE IN THE FRONT'S WAKE. A WIND ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9 AM FOR AREAS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM,
WHICH INCLUDES NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. A
LEADING SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INITIATE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVELS STILL
APPEAR TO BE VERY DRY, SO QPF VALUES ARE RATHER LACK-LUSTER ALONG
THE KY/TN/MO BORDERS. AS THE FRONT TAPS INTO BETTER SURFACE
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
ENHANCE OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. BY FRIDAY EVENING, A STOUT
SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THE CURRENT TRACK
APPEARS TO FOLLOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR, BUT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 20-40% ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES (NEAR 60%) IN MONROE COUNTY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS LIMITED UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH.
THE FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL
ATTEMPT TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY WHILE A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TAKES AIM ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SATURDAY WILL BE RATHER UNSETTLED WITH INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY PW VALUES, WILL HAVE QPF VALUES ON THE LOWER END
AGAIN. AS RAIN MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY EVENING, THERE IS A 20-40%
CHANCE OF RECEIVING A HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
BY SUNDAY, A STRONG AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THIS WILL
INTENSIFY AND CENTER OVER THE MID-SOUTH TO DROP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY MORNING HAS HIGH PROBABILITIES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TO DIP BELOW 32F, BUT TUESDAY MORNING HAS HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH TO DROP BELOW 28F.
THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY AFTER TUESDAY OF HOW
LONG/QUICKLY RIDGING CAN BUILD IN AND WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE AREA.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A 995MB SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS KANSAS INTO NORTH MISSOURI
WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTH-WEST WINDS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH. CIGS WILL TANK TO IFR BEFORE SUNRISE AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW REACHING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35KTS, STRONGEST NEAR JBR. PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY (<20%).
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EAST ARKANSAS TOMORROW EVENING.
FROPA IS EXPECTED AT JBR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND MEM AN HOUR OR
SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST LLWS 40-45 KTS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO JBR AROUND 21Z, MEM AROUND
22Z, MKL NEAR 01Z AND TUP NEAR 03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
WETTING RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH BEGINNING THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION WITH ELEVATED 20 FT WINDS WILL RESULT IN A LIMITED
FIRE DANGER FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. A COOLER AND WETTER
PATTERN WILL EMERGE AFTER THURSDAY, LEADING TO GENERALLY REDUCED
FIRE WEATHER RISK AS HUMIDITY RISES AND FUEL MOISTURE IMPROVES.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026-
028.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JDS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page