279
FXUS64 KMEG 102338 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
638 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
- DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RESUME FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS EDGES HEAT AND HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY JUNE. A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED
NEAR/EAST OF THE NORTHERN CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE
ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG A LEADING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
REGION. A SECONDARY WAVE, ALONG THE TROUGH'S ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT, WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BREAK DOWN THIS RIDGE, SO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN ITS TREK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MISSOURI LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST
HEIGHT FALLS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA (NEAR
MICHIGAN) RESULTING IN WEAKER FORCING NEAR THE MID-SOUTH.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
(PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INITIALLY), WITH A LOW
(LEVEL 1/5) MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INCHES
CLOSER. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUND 20-30KTS OF BULK SHEAR RIGHT
ALONG THE AR/MO AND KY/TN BORDERS ON THE FRONTAL DESCENT. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED TIMING, SURFACE BASED CAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
1000 J/KG. WHILE THESE PARAMETERS ARE ON THE LOWER END, A STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM COULD DEVELOP IN THESE CONDITIONS. THE MARGINAL
RISK IS SUFFICIENT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF STRENGTH OF FORCING
AGAINST THE RIDGE.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE DUE THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE AND STALL ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF
STRONG FORCING, THE MODELS VARY ON THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. UNTIL THIS
FRONT MOVES, WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED FOR TUESDAY, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY WITH ENHANCEMENT DURING
DAYTIME HEATING. PWS HOVER BETWEEN 1.75-2" DAILY, WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED (NEARING 90TH PERCENTILE) CLIMATOLOGICALLY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCER WITH MARGINAL
EROS COVERING PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH UNTIL A SECONDARY FRONT
SINKS ON TUESDAY. FORCING LOOKS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS PUSH,
WHICH COULD BE OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, BUT
IT IS TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS. IN THE SHORT TERM, ENJOY THE DRY
BUT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS ON
FRIDAY.
DNM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
NEAR PERSISTENCE AVIATION WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
30 HOURS. VFR AND S/SW WINDS WITH DAYTIME GUSTS AT JBR, MEM AND
MKL.
REGARDING JBR WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY, LAMP GUIDANCE WAS AROUND
5KT ABOVE THE HREF MEAN AND HRRR DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT FOR
SUSTAINED AND GUST WIND SPEEDS. THE 00Z JBR TAF REFLECTS THE
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS, WHICH IS ALSO NEAR PERSISTENCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION, WETTING RAIN CHANCES RESUME
TOMORROW
AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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