733  
FXUS64 KMEG 150130  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
830 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 821 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024  
 
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS  
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NON-EXISTENT  
ACROSS THE AREA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS  
OF ONLY 1-2 DEGREES WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH  
FROM WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY. EXPECT LOWS IN UPPER 60S ACROSS  
MOST OF THE AREA. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FLOOD WATCH. RAIN  
WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH A DRYING TREND EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN MILD THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024  
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE  
MID-SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. SOME AREAS COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO  
2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY EVENING. BY TUESDAY,  
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024  
 
VERY LITTLE CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS OUR SOGGY  
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY  
THANKS TO THE REMNANTS OF FRANCINE. SURFACE LOW HAS DRIFTED OVER  
NORTH MS THROUGH THE DAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
REGION. VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE  
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, KEEPING A DREARY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS  
THE MID-SOUTH. I HAVE KNOCKED THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BACK A  
BIT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS SOME  
SURFACE INSTABILITY, SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO TAP INTO THIS  
POTENTIAL AND THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE  
AREA TODAY. I WON'T RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS COMPLETELY, BUT MY  
CONFIDENCE IS VERY, VERY LOW FOR ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW. FLOOD  
WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH ALONG THE TN RIVER,  
BUT THIS REMAINS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS  
LUCKILY STAYED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, BUT WILL KEEP THINGS  
STATUS QUO IN CASE A CONVECTIVE BAND SETS UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
TO EVENING. TOTAL ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE  
AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 2 INCHES  
ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH MS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR <1 INCH  
ELSEWHERE.  
 
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY, SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION  
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT  
WARMER PATTERN BACK TO THE MID-SOUTH, LIKELY LASTING INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 80S WITH  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S, WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE AREA FOR  
MID-SEPTEMBER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024  
 
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CHURN OVER THE MID-SOUTH LEADING TO  
A PRETTY DECENT IFR DECK SPREADING ACROSS THE AIRSPACE AROUND  
MIDNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS FINALLY LOOKS  
TO BEGIN AROUND SUNSET TOMORROW. THIS SAME LOW WILL ALSO BRING  
INTERMEDIATE PERIODS OF -SHRA/BR WITH REDUCED VSBYS ACROSS ALL  
TERMINALS. A VERY WEAK LLJ WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN AL TO WEST  
TN LEADING TO LLWS AT MKL LATER THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS  
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
AEH  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ004>006-009-014>017-023-  
024.  
 
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ091-092.  
 

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS  
AVIATION...AEH  
 
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