272
FXUS64 KMEG 251736
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1236 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- AN UNSETTLED FORECAST IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
- A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW
IN PLACE FOR AREAS ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK ELSEWHERE. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY, BRINGING
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PERSIST AROUND THE EASTERN
EDGE OF A POWERFUL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. A SURFACE DEWPOINT
GRADIENT EXISTS WITH 70+ F DEWPOINTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
REGION, LOWERING TO AROUND 65 F NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. SOME
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S OVER
MOST OF THE REGION. PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION WILL
HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH, IF NOT INTERMITTENTLY EXCEED,
105 F THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY WAS DISCUSSED, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF PERSISTENT 105 F HEAT INDEX VALUES
IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES TODAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE
ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, REMNANT MCVS AND MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS FROM OVERNIGHT
STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL HAVE BEEN STEERED BY THE UPPER
NORTHWESTERLIES AND WILL GET CLOSE TO THE MID-SOUTH. INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN THE ENTIRE TIME, AND WITH THE ONSET OF SUBTLE
SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD FROM THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCVS, STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN ON THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF STORMS, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW, TWO ROUNDS APPEAR
LIKELY; ONE IN THE EARLY MORNING AND A SECOND THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE FIRST ROUND LOOKS TO BE LINKED TO AN INITIAL MCV FROM STORMS
OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING THAT WILL TRAVEL EAST INTO MO TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF RUN-TO-RUN UNCERTAINTY
IN THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THAT IGNITES DUE TO
THIS IMPULSE, THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL THAT SOME STORMS WILL
DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE REGION AND TRAVEL
SOUTH. MUCAPE WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG, MEANING THAT
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
RAP PROFILES WITHIN THIS AXIS OF MUCAPE SHOW WEAK CAPPING, BUT
WEAK SHEAR, INDICATING THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE
ORGANIZED AND OFFER A LOW-END RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND/OR
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION, POTENTIALLY DRAPING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. AS OF RIGHT NOW, RECOVERY OF THIS
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY AS MOST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE BRINGS UPWARDS OF 3000 - 4000 J/KG MLCAPE BY 21Z
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER MCV, WHICH WILL BE BORN FROM ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT, IS THEN FORECAST TO REACH
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONTINUED SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS,
A MID-LEVEL MCV, AND MULTIPLE, MODIFIED SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
ALL WORK IN CONCERT TO SUPPORT MULTIPLE REGIMES OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THROUGH THE EVENING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE
BULK SHEAR, UP TO 30 - 35 KNOTS FROM A PALTRY 20 KNOTS LAST
NIGHT. THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL. HOWEVER, THIS MANY MOVING PARTS IN A CONVECTIVE FORECAST
RARELY EXHIBITS HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE, EVEN 24 HOURS OUT.
TOMORROW'S CONVECTIVE FORECAST IS NO DIFFERENT WITH MULTIPLE
BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE FEEDBACKS INFLUENCING THE FORECAST. SO,
THE EXACT CEILING OF THE EVENT AND WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR IS STILL
SHROUDED IN UNCERTAINTY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER
RESOLVED WITH TIME. FOR NOW, PLAN FOR A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) RISK
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH, WHICH WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNSET
WEDNESDAY, WILL SWING EAST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FRONT, POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED OR ENHANCED, WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACKS INCREASE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXPONENTIALLY BY THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST,
MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, IF STORMS
WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY EVENING, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AMPLE (2500+ J/KG) MLCAPE AND ENOUGH
DCAPE TO WARRANT A LOW-END THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. BY FRIDAY,
THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT A MORE PRECIPITATION-FREE
FORECAST WILL TAKE HOLD.
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO CANADA
FRIDAY, ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT A PORTION OF THE
TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS
CUTOFF LOW THEN PROCEEDS TO RETROGRADE WEST, TURNING INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH OVER MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA NEXT WEEKEND. PAST
FORECASTS WERE TRENDING TOWARDS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE EXISTENCE OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH MAY STAVE OFF STRONGER RIDGE, AND BY
EXTENSION MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW HEAT INDICES REMAIN
RATHER MILD IN THE 90S THIS WEEKEND, ONLY MARGINALLY WARMING
TOWARDS 100 F EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO, EXPECT A SEASONABLE, DRY
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
TWO DISTINCT ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE TAF CYCLE. THE INITIAL ROUND WILL FEATURE SCATTERED
CONVECTION, PRIMARILY IMPACTING JBR, MEM, AND MKL TOMORROW
MORNING. A SECOND, MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MEM TERMINAL
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY, PROB30 GROUPS WERE
INTRODUCED FOR BOTH PERIODS, THOUGH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 50% AND WITH LIGHT 20 FOOT WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED BETWEEN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY, BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE REGION AND MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT IS LOW, BUT IS POTENTIALLY HIGHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THE STRENGTH OF WINDS THURSDAY MORNING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AC3
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