955
FXUS64 KMEG 281747
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1247 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL PERSIST DAILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, POSING A THREAT OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE MUGGY CONDITIONS AND LEAD
TO PLEASANT, DRIER AFTERNOONS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK (AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY).
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS TRENDING IN
THE MID-80S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH NEAR THE ARKLATEX,
IS TRANSPORTING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INTO THE MID-SOUTH, WITH
PWATS NEARING 2.0 INCHES (NEAR 99TH PERCENTILE) ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CONSEQUENTLY, THE AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A SLIGHT RISK (2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. CONVECTION, WHICH IS ALREADY INITIATED, WILL BECOME
MORE FOCUSED AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD I-40. THE
CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT, WITH RAINFALL RATES
APPROACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR, A SCENARIO WELL-SUPPORTED BY
HI-RES GUIDANCE AND THE NBM, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A BULLSEYE
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF 24-HOUR QPF OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND A LOW
TO MEDIUM THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.
A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR FRIDAY MID-
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A PRIMARY CONCERN AS PWATS
CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.
A SHIFT TOWARD A DRIER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. LREF
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS CONSISTENCY REGARDING THIS DEVELOPMENT. DURING
THIS PERIOD, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY SCATTERED AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK, SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCING HUMIDITY THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS TRANSITION WOULD RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
FEATURING HIGHS IN THE MID-80S AND LOWS IN THE MID-60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
THIS IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TAF SET AS A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH. GIVEN CURRENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, PROMOTING DAYTIME
HEATING, INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
AS SUCH, VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO OPTED TO KEEP THE CURRENT PROB30S FOR -TSRA
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNSET. INSTABILITY WANES AROUND
SUNSET, THOUGH THUNDER MAY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS WINDS GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, AMIDST NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS,
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AT JBR/MKL/TUP. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE BEGINNING AROUND 08Z
AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS
TO ROTATE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
NO FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH CONTINUED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAINING HIGH FUEL MOISTURE.
A DRIER PATTERN WILL EMERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH
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