799
FXUS64 KMEG 011723
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1123 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TUESDAY.
- THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 10 AM DEPICTS A 1036MB AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LITTLE ROCK, ARKANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING SOUTHEAST AND ENTERING
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITH VERY LIGHT RETURNS DEPICTED ON KNQA.
TYPICAL OF ARCTIC AIR MASSES, THE CLOUDS TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT EVERY
BIT OF MOISTURE, LEADING TO CHANCES OF LIGHT FLURRIES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING. NO ACCUMULATIONS
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED THE
FREEZING MARK TODAY SOUTH OF I-40, AND AGAIN AREAWIDE TOMORROW.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME TO REIGN.
THIS IS WHAT WILL DRIVE OUR TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL WITH WAA.
WITH INCREASED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE, RAIN CHANCES DO RETURN
AHEAD OF A LEADING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY.
PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING AN INCH OF RAIN HAVE DECREASED SINCE
24 HOURS AGO, BUT PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING 0.75" OF RAIN OR
MORE ARE STILL AROUND 35%. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES DO RESIDE
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI, WITH LESS ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. PW VALUES ARE NEARING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, SO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY. PROBABILITIES
FROM THE LREF OF CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 100 J/KG ARE NEGLIGIBLE,
SO NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LACK OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT ENHANCE RAIN RATES WHICH SHOULD KEEP QPF
VALUES CLOSE TO CURRENT TRENDS.
THE LEADING SHORTWAVES PARENT LOW AND AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW VERY QUICKLY IN TOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, LEAVING A CHILLY KICK OFF FOR MIDWEEK
IN THE NORTHERN TIER. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD ONE AS ALL
THE COLD AIR FINALLY SINKS AND ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE REGION. THE
NBM HAS A 100% CHANCE OF THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES SUB-
FREEZING AREAWIDE. THANKFULLY, THIS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ONCE MORE. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, RUN-TO-RUN
INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE TO MAKE PRECISE TIMING AND IMPACTS TOO
EARLY TO TELL.
DNM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INTERMITTENTLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NW TO S BY SUNSET
TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
LIGHT 20FT WINDS AND MINRH VALUES ABOVE 50 PERCENT WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CAD
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