959
FXUS64 KMEG 251645
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY
NORTH OF I-40, THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS SET UP, A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THREAT COULD EXIST EACH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
- THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY.
- HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
STARTING SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT
PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
A WARMER DAY IS ON DISPLAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY, UPPER-LEVEL QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID-SOUTH. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
ALONG WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING COULD BRING ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW
POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING,
HOWEVER, A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. A
WARMER DAY IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A FEW MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES, SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY, WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE AS A WEAKENING MCS
LOOKS TO MOVE OVER AREAS NORTH OF I-40. WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THIS OVERNIGHT
SYSTEM AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE,
30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S, AND PWATS ON
THE ORDER OF 2+", NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. HOWEVER, WITH THIS OVERNIGHT SYSTEM, A LIMITING FACTOR
COULD BE THE AMOUNT OF CIN STORMS WILL NEED TO OVERCOME FOR
STORMS TO PRODUCE AND POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE. CAMS ARE ALSO
HINTING AT A SECONDARY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MCS MOVING
ALONG THIS SAME AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO WOBBLE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND ANOTHER EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE WEST. WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING, THIS
AFTERNOON COMPLEX COULD LEAD TO A HIGHER SEVERE THREAT WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINTING AT SBCAPE 2000+ J/KG, DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 70S, AND PWATS 2+". THOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR LOOKS MEAGER AT
AROUND 25-30 KTS, POTENTIALLY INHIBITING UPSCALE GROWTH. IF
STORMS DO BECOME SEVERE, DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ALONG PREVIOUSLY SATURATED SOILS FROM EARLY WEEK. ONE
THING TO NOTE: MANY AREAS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL SEE LITTLE TO
NO RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS BEST CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED
TO AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY BORDER.
PAST FRIDAY, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS THE CURRENT 593DM RIDGE, CURRENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AND AMPLIFY EAST.
HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO FLIRT WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S BEGINNING
SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BY LATE SUNDAY,
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL PARK AND NEARLY CENTER OVER THE MID-
SOUTH AT 594DM THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS RIDGE TRANSLATING NORTHEAST, LEAVING
US IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED EACH DAY NEXT WEEK AS
HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105F WILL BE WITNESSED IN MANY AREAS
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. DANGEROUS, PROLONGED HEAT WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO RELIEF IN THE EVENINGS WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING
STEADY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON COULD HINDER
OUR NEED FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, WE DO
KNOW THAT IT WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY HOT. NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE
FOR A PROLONGED LATE JUNE HEATWAVE AND A POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS
HEAT.
AEH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
HREF/REFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR AT JBR LATE TONIGHT. THUS, THE PROB30 FOR
JBR WILL CONTINUE BUT SHIFTED LATER BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS TOWARDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
RECENT WETTING RAINS AND SATURATED SOILS WILL INHIBIT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 40% AND DAILY BOUTS OF POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CJC
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