577
FXUS64 KMEG 281733
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT OUTSIDE OF THIS A PROLONGED DRY SPELL IS FORECAST FOR THE
MID-SOUTH.
- HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, WILL BROADEN EAST THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, HOT CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LREF CONTINUES TO PLACE LOW PROBABILITIES
(LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) OF HEAT INDICES REACHING 105 DEGREES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A LACK OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
RETURNING INTO THE MID-SOUTH, KEEPING DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER END.
BY MIDWEEK, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY RETROGRADING ACROSS MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE MID-SOUTH ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOULD ANY
PRECIPITATION OCCUR, AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. THE GREATER
IMPACT BROUGHT BY THE UPPER LOW WILL BE HEAT. DUE TO INCREASED
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES, HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH AND EXCEED
105 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME
HEAT WARNINGS IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER. NO SIGN OF FALL
JUST YET.
ANS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR. FOG PROBABILITIES ARE LOW OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING,
AND THEY HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
OVER THE WEEKEND, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL BELOW
35 PERCENT AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOW
END FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EMERGE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
PROLONGED DRY PERIOD KICKS OFF.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...SJM
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