428
FXUS64 KMEG 240432
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2023
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2023
WE REMAIN ON TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE
INCLUDING: A FEW TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SATURDAY UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2023
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING'S FORECAST PACKAGE.
ALL PARAMETERS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK FROM THE ARKLAMISS TO THE MID-SOUTH REGION ON FRIDAY.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WITH A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1000 MB LOW NEAR
SYRACUSE, NEW YORK WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CLEVELAND,
OHIO SOUTHWEST INTO CARBONDALE, ILLINOIS AND BACK INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
LATE TONIGHT AND SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE A COUPLE MORE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER EAST THROUGH WEST
TENNESSEE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT SAGS OVERNIGHT. 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES AND
ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. A
SURFACE LOW WILL SPAWN NEAR THE ARKLATEX TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TRACK ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR WEST,
THE MID-SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW. SOME OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
COULD PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, WEST TENNESSEE,
AND MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THROUGH LATE MORNING TOMORROW. THIS COULD
CREATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT IF REALIZED.
THE MAIN EVENT WILL ARRIVE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
EJECTS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INITIAL STORM MODE
COULD BE MIXED WITH MULTI-CELLS, SUPERCELLS, AND BROKEN-LINE
SEGMENTS. BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WILL BE EXCEPTIONAL,
BUT CAPE STILL REMAINS THE ACHILLES HEEL. MANY OF THE HI-RES
MODELS DEPICT UP TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAKING IT UP THE DELTA AND
MAYBE AS FAR NORTH AS MEMPHIS, WHICH COULD SUPPORT ALL HAZARDS
INCLUDING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. AFTER SUNDOWN, THE TROUGH WILL
TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONGEAL
INTO A LINE OF STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL EVOLVE INTO DAMAGING
WINDS WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LINE
SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THEREAFTER, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END.
A TRAILING FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH
SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO SET UP BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.
AC3
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2023
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AND PRODUCE LOW CIGS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT JBR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS. WIND IS
SOUTHERLY 8-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KTS. WIND SHOULD
RELAX SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BEFORE REDEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING.
LLWS IN AT MEM, JBR AND MKL OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR FOR ALL SITES NEAR THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
SMW
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ARZ009-018-026-027.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...SMW
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