246
FXUS64 KMEG 081105
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
505 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT THE
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING.
- STORM TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND AN
INCH.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
ANOTHER PRETTY BENIGN NIGHT IS PRESENT WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING TO THE LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT, THE MID-SOUTH SITS UNDER PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY STATE LINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S AS DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS ALREADY SET IN AMIDST AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT WINDS. AS
SUCH, ANY WET SURFACES FROM ICE, SLEET, SNOW MELT WILL
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND, HOWEVER, AS
SOUTH WINDS USHER IN WARMER AIR AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO MID
60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-SOUTH LATE SUNDAY
GIVING LIFT TO A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST AS WE MOVE INTO
MONDAY. MONDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY SPRING
WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE, REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BROADEN FURTHER FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS, AIDING WARMING TEMPERATURES MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH THE SAME WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES (50-
70%) BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY EVENING TUESDAY WITH LIFT FROM
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL EJECT FROM THE PLAINS AND A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FRONT THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL OUT AND BISECT THE MID-SOUTH WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE 50S AND SOUTH WELL INTO THE 60S.
MOVING INTO LATE WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED. ENSEMBLES INDICATE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
EJECT INTO THE MID-SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN COME LATE THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO
FRIDAY. INTO THE WEEKEND, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS ANOTHER, MORE
PROMINENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WE
COULD SEE A FEW POPS OF THUNDER SATURDAY, BUT THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AS
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TOPS OUT AT AROUND AN INCH AND LREF HAS
AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AEH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME,
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER
GENERALLY AFTER 00Z, WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AT JBR AND
WESTERLY AT MKL/MEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL TEETER AROUND 40-50%
THROUGH EARLY WEEK RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
OUR NEXT SHOT AT APPRECIABLE RAINFALL RETURNS LATE TUESDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WORK-
WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA
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