805
FXUS64 KMEG 310456
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1156 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR AND EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES.
- EXPECT A PLEASANT AND DRY LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE, LOW HUMIDITY, AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.
- A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING MUCH-NEEDED CHANCES FOR
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT
SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
UPPER NORTHWESTERLIES AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO
PERSIST TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY WERE ABLE TO JUMP
NEARLY 20-30 DEGREES FROM OUR MORNING LOWS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO AN ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIRMASS THAT HAS FOUND
ITS WAY INTO THE MID- SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. SUCH DRY AIR WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 50S AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
EVEN DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY WITH LARGE DAILY TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND LOWS
IN THE 50S/60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S/90S.
THE NORTHWESTERLIES CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION ARE A PART OF A MUCH
LARGER, LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND BACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THROUGHOUT MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY, GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TROUGH AMPLIFYING WITH A
STRONGER BELT OF FLOW WRAPPING AROUND ITS BACK SIDE. ALTHOUGH WE
ARE VERY DRY NOW, PWATS WILL STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK TO AROUND 1.2"-1.5" AREA-WIDE. HIGHER MOISTURE, WEAK
UPPER FORCING, AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IN THE FORM OF DAILY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
PROFILES ARE STILL SOMEWHAT DRY AND, WITH WEAKER UPPER
FORCING/COOLING, INSTABILITY WILL ONLY MAXIMIZE AROUND 1000 J/KG.
NBM HAS A 30% - 50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TUESDAY, SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO FURTHER CONSOLIDATE
AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH IT IS FAR
FROM THE MID-SOUTH, THE CORRESPONDING WINDS ALOFT WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH AND AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
AS A RESULT, A SURFACE LOW UNDERNEATH THIS TROUGH WILL PULL
CANADIAN AIR SOUTH ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REACH US
SOME TIME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN GUIDANCE ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW STRONG THIS INTRUSION
WILL BE BUT AT LEAST SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED. NBM AND LREF
MEMBERS SHOW A 50%-70% CHANCE THAT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS BELOW 55 F ON FRIDAY, TAPERING OFF EACH DAY AFTER.
MODEL GUIDANCE, IN COMBINATION WITH CPC'S LATEST 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK
PRESENTING A HIGH (80%-90%) CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LATE THIS WEEK, PAINT A PICTURE THAT LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE. HOWEVER, THE EXACT DEGREE OF COOLING
HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NE WINDS 6-9 KTS.
SIRMON
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS PRESENT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY. THIS IS MAINLY DUE
TO LOW HUMIDITY (MINRHS BELOW 30%, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH MS IN THE
HOLLY SPRINGS NF AREA) AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS LEADING TO
DRY FUELS. RAINFALL WILL BE ISOLATED EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY NOT
PROVIDE MUCH DROUGHT RELIEF, THOUGH MINRHS DO INCREASE TO 50+% BY
TUESDAY. ANOTHER COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IS ON ITS WAY MIDWEEK AND
MAY FURTHER EXACERBATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS STARTING FRIDAY
DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE RAINFALL WE RECEIVE NEXT WEEK IS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS
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