223
FXUS64 KMEG 221725
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL BE
105 OR GREATER.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE) RETURNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ACROSS THE AREA TO
END THE WORK WEEK, WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNING BY SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
A SOMEWHAT "COOLER" DAY IS PROGRESSING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR, GENERALLY ALONG THE TN/MS STATELINE.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THIS REGION, WITH SOME LIGHT ECHOES OF KNQA. SINCE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS YET TO CLEAR THE AREA, OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES ACROSS NORTH TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ARE ALREADY SEEING
HEAT INDICES APPROACH 100. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
WHERE VALUES MAY EXCEED 105. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE MS BY THIS EVENING,
WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. BY FRIDAY, WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ONGOING, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE
TOWARDS THE AREA AND BRING BACK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT, BUT WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME CAMS HAVE
STARTED TO COME INTO RANGE, BUT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR,
WILL NOT RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THOUGH THIS
PERIOD, BUT THERE ARE CURRENTLY TOO MANY UNKNOWNS TO HIGHLIGHT
ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME.
BY SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST, KEEPING SUBTLE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK, THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELTA, EXPANDING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH
THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FAVOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO EARLY AUGUST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER IMPACT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. POST-FRONTAL NNE WINDS MAY BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON AT MEM, JBR AND MKL. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO TUP, LIMITING GUST POTENTIAL BUT PROVIDING
SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. HOURLY THUNDER
PROBABILITIES AT TUP WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT, BELOW
PROB30 THRESHOLD.
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH MS MAY EDGE INTO MEM AFTER 12Z,
AFTER THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING. AT THIS TIME, VFR
BASES APPEAR LIKELY, BUT AN EARLIER ARRIVAL TIME WOULD INCREASE
MEM MVFR CHANCES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH
MINRH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40%. WHILE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY, SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ010-011-020>024.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page