665
FXUS64 KMEG 122320 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
- DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, AND WARM, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
- THERE IS LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (30-50% CHANCE) FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.
- A FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH NORTH OF I-40
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S., AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WEST. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1030 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN IS RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S AS OF 12 PM CDT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN TODAY'S
FORECAST ISSUANCE.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO
THE MID-SOUTH INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
INTO FRIDAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS MODIFY THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
LONG TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A NORTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MODEST CAPPING INVERSION WILL INITIALLY BE
PRESENT. HOWEVER, IMPRESSIVE 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WITH A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH SUNDAY
EVENING. LREF MODEL PROBABILITIES INDICATE A MEDIUM CHANCE (30 TO
50%) FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. NBM
PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 DEGREES SUGGEST MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE (50-70% CHANCE) FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 DEGREES
NORTH OF I-40 SUNDAY NIGHT, AND HIGH CONFIDENCE (80-100% CHANCE)
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
PRIMARILY A WIND FORECAST, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
THE NEXT 30 HOURS. MARGINAL LLWS MAY BE OBSERVED AT JBR AND MKL
NEAR SUNRISE AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET REACHES 40KT AT
FL020. OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES BUT TUP
FOLLOWING SUNRISE. GUST POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE AREAWIDE BY
MIDAFTERNOON FRIDAY, AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 30-40%
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BETWEEN 40-50% SATURDAY. FUEL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH FROM WEDNESDAY'S RAINFALL WHICH WILL MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...PWB
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