884
FXUS64 KMEG 261735
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
SATURDAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL, WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE.
- A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT, DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN
THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S STARTING
SUNDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
BEGINNING SATURDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR LIKELY HEAT
ADVISORIES AND POTENTIALLY EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS THROUGHOUT THE
COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
MID-MORNING GOES EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CONUS. A COUPLE OF WEAK
PERTURBATIONS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW, SPECIFICALLY OVER SE
MISSOURI AND THE PANHANDLES OF TX/OK. A DECAYING MCS IS NOTED TO
THE WEST OF THE KY/MO BORDER, WITH SOME SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT
OVER SE MISSOURI. THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS AREA OF
REDEVELOPMENT IS LARGELY CAPPED AT THIS HOUR AND IS MOVING INTO A
REGION OF WEAKER SHEAR. NONETHELESS, THERE IS A LOW-TO-MEDIUM
CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CAP
ERODES AND BULK SHEAR REMAINS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THE
AREA FAVORED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
KY/TN BORDER.
A NEW FLOOD THREAT HAS EMERGED AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL TRAVERSE AREAS NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SLOW-MOVING STORM MOTION, ABOVE-NORMAL PWATS, AND WEAK
TO MODERATE LIFT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL-PRODUCING
CONVECTION. THERE IS REASONABLE ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
REFS AND HREF LOCAL PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN (LPMM) 24-HOUR QPF,
INDICATING 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND
PORTIONS OF NW TENNESSEE. A FLOOD WATCH WAS CLOSELY COORDINATED
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING. THE WATCH WILL RUN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF
ESAT GUIDANCE SHOWS 500-MB AND 700-MB HEIGHTS CLIMBING ABOVE THE
99TH PERCENTILE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR-NORMAL PWATS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
100°F NEXT WEEK, AS HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
PREVENT HIGHS FROM CLIMBING ABOVE THE MID-90S MARK. NONETHELESS,
SEVERAL DAYS OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES
NEAR THE 105°F HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE AT
NIGHT. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST 2 TO
3 DAYS AND COULD START AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. NOW IS THE TIME TO
PREPARE FOR OUR FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SUMMER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST AT JBR/MKL
SOUTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS ISSUANCE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS ON THE LOWER END, THEREFORE, ONLY
WARRANTED A PROB30 OVERNIGHT AT JBR. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY, UP TO 25 KTS, THROUGH 00Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO RECENT WETTING RAINS AND SATURATED SOILS. DAILY ROUNDS OF
POP-UP SHOWERS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING ABOVE
40% WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARZ009-018.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ001>004-019>022.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH
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