189
FXUS64 KMEG 101748
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE
MID-SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS INCLUDING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND RAIN, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THROUGH 8 PM CDT FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
- RAINFALL FROM ISAIAS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL TURN DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS HAVE FULLY MERGED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH,
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LAST NIGHT. THE RESULTING UPPER SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD TODAY WITH A BIT OF A RETROGRADE INTO
WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT
EAST LATE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RADARS,
BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT OUR REGION POINT TO AN
UNDERPERFORMANCE OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION COMPARED TO MRMS/DUAL-
POL ESTIMATES. THE MAIN CULPRIT IS SEEN ON THE 12Z NASHVILLE
SOUNDING WITH A DEEP LAYER OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR UP TO 700 MB
CAUSING HIGH AMOUNTS OF EVAPORATION. THEREFORE, REMAINING
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1.00",
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
CANCELLATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER, THE WIND ADVISORY DOES
REMAIN FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH 8 PM CDT.
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GUST ANYWHERE CLOSE TO 40 MPH,
CAMS STILL SHOW 30 - 40 MPH WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS
LIKELY THAT EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW FOR
ENOUGH SINKING MOTION BELOW 700 MB FOR THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. WINDS IN THIS LAYER HAVE ALREADY BEEN
SAMPLED AS HIGH AS 50 KNOTS FROM THE OHX/NQA/GWX VADS. SO, THERE
IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR THESE WINDS TO BRING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA GUSTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL STILL EXIST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY,
BUT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
STEADILY EAT AWAY AT RAIN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BY SUNRISE, THE MID-SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION-
FREE WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN WINDS. SUNSHINE WILL THEN RETURN
IN MOST AREAS, WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S
OR UPPER 50S WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. AREAS ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER MAY HANG ON TO CLOUD COVER FOR LONGER, WHICH
WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES
EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH
HIGHS GRADUALLY SNEAKING BACK INTO THE LOW 90S AS AN UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
VARIABILITY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH WITH SOME GUIDANCE
BRINGING IT EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND OTHERS ALLOWING
IT TO BECOME CUTOFF OVER THE ROCKIES. LREF CLUSTERS SEEM TO
PREFER THE TROUGH TO STALL OR ONLY SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST, WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE REGION DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT BY SATURDAY THEY HEAVILY FAVOR THE RETURN OF
NORTHWESTERLIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MOST GUIDANCE, BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE, THEN HAVE A FRONT FOLLOWING THIS
PATTERN CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, OFFERING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
AT COOLER, MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THOUGH,
THIS IS LATE IN THE FORECAST AND IS VERY MUCH SUBJECT TO CHANGES
IN FOLLOWING FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MAIN CONCERNS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND
LOWER CIGS. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD GRADUALLY WESTWARD AND
WILL MAINLY IMPACT TUP, MKL, AND MEM WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOWER CIGS ARE ALSO
SPREADING WESTWARD AND MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT TUP AND MKL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING EARLY SUNDAY.
MEM AND JBR WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHRAS AT MEM THAT MAY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WETTING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ISAIAS'
MOISTURE REMAINS, BUT 20-FOOT WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 MILES PER
HOUR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A STEADY DROP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO SEE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS
THAT DO NOT SEE RAINFALL SUCH AS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER. HOWEVER, 20-FOOT WINDS BY THIS POINT WILL BE LIGHT,
MITIGATING HIGHER FIRE DANGER. SOUTHERLIES WILL RETURN TUESDAY,
LEADING TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
40% THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
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