089
FXUS64 KMEG 070419
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1119 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
- LOWER HUMIDITY WILL ACCOMPANY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME AREAS MAY NECESSITATE THE RETURN OF HEAT
ADVISORIES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, HIGHS WILL MODERATE TO THE LOW
TO MID 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
SUMMER HEAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING. IN ACCORDANCE WITH 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI
STATE LINE. THIS FRONT BROUGHT CONVECTION TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI
AND EASTERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR BRIEF SEGMENTS
OF RELIEF FROM HEAT, BUT DIDN'T HELP MUCH IN THE WAY OF DROUGHT
WORSENING CONDITIONS. DRY AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TRAIL BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ALLOWING FOR LOWERED DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TO ACCOMPANY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR LABOR DAY. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 100S, BELOW THE
105+F HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD, ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30% AS LOWERED DEWPOINTS
FILTER IN RESULTING IN AT LEAST MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MONDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL
PLAINS, WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
CENTERING OVER US BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S, RANGING ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION. COME THURSDAY, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSHING OVER EASTERN CANADA
WITH WEAK TROUGHING DIPPING INTO THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND DECENT HEIGHT FALLS WILL BRING OUR NEXT
SHOT AT APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
THOUGH EXACT TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND HEIGHTFALLS REMAIN HARD TO
PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT, WE WILL WELCOME ANY PRECIPITATION TO
HOPEFULLY HELP ALLEVIATE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE LATEST
LREF HAS AROUND A 25% CHANCE FOR >500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 20KTS OF
0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE
A CONCERN WITH A FRONT AMIDST PERSISTENT DAYTIME HEATING BOTH
DAYS, HOWEVER, MORE REFINED DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT AS TIME
DRAWS CLOSER. POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP ABOUT 2-
4 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BY LATE NEXT WEEK,
STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE 2ND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. THE LATEST CPC
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS US HIGHLIGHTED 50-60% ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TEMPERATURES AND LEANING BELOW NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
6-10 KTS BY MID MORNING MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 30% MONDAY
AS A RESULT OF DRY AIR. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT OR BELOW 40%.
WITH DRY FUELS IN PLACE, MARGINAL TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER
IS ANTICIPATED. LUCKILY 20 FT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS
SAME PERIOD. OUR NEXT SHOT AT APPRECIABLE RAINFALL RETURNS LATE
WEEK.
AEH
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...SJM
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