133
FXUS64 KMEG 260540
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1240 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK DUE
TO WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY VEGETATION.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A SLIGHT
PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
RINSE AND REPEAT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AS AN ANOMALOUS 592DAM RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. CHILLY MORNINGS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S
AND WARM AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL
REMAIN THE STORY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALSO REMAINS FIXED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A VERY DRY AIR COLUMN PRESENT AS PWATS
REMAIN AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, 0.5-
0.7". IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING, THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH
MIDWEEK, VERY EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. A COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, DRY
FUELS, AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
BY MIDWEEK, UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES, LITTLE TO
NO CHANGE IS TO NOTE AS WE REMAIN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL. AS
PERSISTENT RIDGING FLATTENS, DEWPOINTS MAY BE ABLE TO SURGE EVER
SO SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, HOWEVER,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE GIVEN DRY VEGETATION AND
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. TO ANSWER THE QUESTION, WHEN WILL
WE SEE RAIN NEXT, LATE FRIDAY, A SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FINALLY PROMOTE AN
END TO OUR PERSISTENT DRY SPELL AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. LATEST LREF
GUIDANCE HAS A 40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.5" OF PRECIPITATION AND
A 50-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.25". BOTTOM LINE, WE'RE NOT
LOOKING AT A WASHOUT, BUT WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET WITH EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3) AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT ESE/SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. THE LATEST ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS, COMBINED
WITH DRY FUELS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 30 PERCENT,
WILL PROMOTE INCREASED FIRE STARTS AND GROWTH. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE 20 FT WINDS, WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AND ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDWEEK. OTHERWISE, EXPECT EACH DAY TO
FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED PATCHY FOG IN LOW-LYING
AREAS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CJC
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