300
FXUS64 KMEG 131148
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
648 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS RESUME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NEAR-RECORD HIGHS IN THE FORECAST.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AS OF 11PM, RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
ARKANSAS, TREKKING NORTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS DISSIPATING AS IT
APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH THE NEAREST LIGHTNING
STRIKE OVER HOT SPRINGS, AR. GIVEN THIS CONTINUED DOWNTREND, MADE
EDITS TO TONIGHT'S RAIN CHANCES AND PULLED OUT THE THUNDER RISK.
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL MATERIALIZE AFTER SUNRISE AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE, EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, MOVES OVER THE
REGION. TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS WILL INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES AT
THIS TIME, THOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
INSTEAD, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MIDDAY, DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
DRY CONDITIONS RESUME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING PREVAILS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EACH
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
OUR NEXT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEM WILL FORM LEEWARD OF THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AND TREK OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
LOCALLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE DOES EXIST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY, BUT THE PRECISE IMPACTS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF STORMS. IF STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE MORNING, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN
THE MORNING, BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME. IF STORMS LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL ON THE LATEST LREF PROBABILITIES,
WHICH DEPICT NEARLY AN AREAWIDE 50% CHANCE FOR OVERLAPPING SEVERE
INGREDIENTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL THE
EXACT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL FEATURE ISOLATED STORMS. RAIN TOTALS
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME, RESULTING IN LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON
FRIDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE
LATEST NBM DATA SUGGESTS A 40% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REACHING 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR, IT WOULD BEAT OUR AVERAGE FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE
CALENDAR YEAR BY OVER A MONTH. FORTUNATELY, A COOLDOWN IS ON THE
HORIZON AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A COLD FRONT SWINGING
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND THE TIME OF YEAR, SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE MONITORED IN
COMING UPDATES. FOR NOW, EXPECT NEXT WEEKEND TO BE RAINY FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL EMERGE TODAY WITH TWO SEPARATE
ROUNDS OF -SHRAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING WEAK COLD FRONT: ONE
ONGOING THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GIVEN HOW NARROW THE WINDOW OF INSTABILITY IS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HOW SPARSE THE CAMS SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL BE, OPTED NOT TO
INCLUDE TSRA FOR THE SECOND ROUND TODAY BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
AMENDMENTS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY VFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD, BUT A FEW BRIEF WOBBLES TO MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY AT JBR AND TUP. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS PREVAIL AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, DIMINISHING TO 8-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MONDAY, ALLOWING RH VALUES TO
RISE ABOVE 30 PERCENT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT RISING HUMIDITY WILL CURB FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
OUR NEXT SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CAD
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