417
FXUS64 KMEG 062343
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
643 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AS CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE. THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOW, BUT A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY INCREASE BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING LOCALIZED RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A MIDLEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WAS FLANKED BY A 594DAM 500MB RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION, AND A SIMILAR AMPLITUDE RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDWEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY, PROVIDING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIFT EAST, ALLOWING BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO EDGE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATE WEEK HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S ON FRIDAY. AT SUCH TIME, LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDSOUTH IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. MIDSOUTH DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY WARM TO THE MID
70S, LIKELY NECESSITATING A RETURN OF HEAT HEADLINES LATE IN THE
WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY PROVIDE SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PROVIDE LOCALIZED HEAT RELIEF
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A STALLED FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH. PWAT VALUES OF 2 TO 2.25 INCHES APPEAR
LIKELY ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, INCREASING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.
GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD
PLACE THE MIDSOUTH UNDER WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP US OUT OF THE WORST OF THE HEAT, BUT NOT BY MUCH. IN
ANY CASE, IT APPEARS LIKE A DRIER PATTERN IS IN STORE TOWARD MID-
JULY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
CONVECTION CONCERNS ARE BELOW MENTIONABLE THIS EVENING AT ALL
SITES BESIDES JBR WHERE A FEW ATTEMPTS AT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ARE UNDERWAY AS OF 00Z. STORMS FROM OUTSIDE THE
REGION MAY TRY TO MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS OTHER SITES, BUT
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN INSTABILITY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNSET AND
PREVENT ANY IMPACTS TONIGHT. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL AROUND 10Z WHERE MVFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT MEM/MKL/TUP THROUGH 12Z. AN UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON, PROMPTING THE INCLUSION
OF PROB30S BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR ADDITIONAL DIURNAL
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
ABOVE 40 PERCENT WITH LIGHT 20FT WINDS. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DAILY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JAB
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