877  
FXUS64 KMEG 151130  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
530 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 518 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2025  
 
- LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH LATE EVENING AS 4 TO 6 INCHES OF  
RAIN OCCURS. 2 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE  
MID-SOUTH. RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM  
NOW THROUGH 6AM SUNDAY.  
 
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE  
AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS  
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. ALL HAZARDS (DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY  
RAINFALL, TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL) ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONG TORNADO  
OR TWO (EF - 2 OR GREATER) IS POSSIBLE.  
 
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED NEXT WEEK. LONG  
RANGE MODELS DEPICT ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK. ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 405 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2025  
 
PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALREADY ON RADAR THIS MORNING. THE  
MOST RECENT PRECIPITATION OBSERVATIONS ARE PINGING AT OR ABOVE 1  
INCH FOR ALONG A WSW TO ENE LINE FROM JONESBORO, AR TO DYERSBURG,  
TN TO PARIS, TN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG  
THIS THETA-E AXIS AT THIS HOUR, WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE  
MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE FLOODING  
THREAT IS ALREADY RAMPING UP AND RAINFALL TOTALS COULD APPROACH 3  
INCHES BEFORE SUNUP. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MINOR  
CREST UNIT STREAMFLOW RESPONSES.  
 
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1003MB LOW NEAR THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN  
UTAH. ANOTHER LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR HOUSTON, TX WITH AN ATTENDANT  
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. ALOFT, A  
DEEPENING POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED TO THE  
SOUTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN  
MEXICO AND BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY-TILTED BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON.  
THE PANHANDLE SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE AN EASTERLY TRACK AND PUSH THE  
GULF WARM FRONT ALL THE WAY UP TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR DURING THE  
SAME TIMEFRAME. THE PARAMETER SPACE WILL QUICKLY BECOME CONDUCIVE  
FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS,  
TORNADOES (OF WHICH A COUPLE COULD BE STRONG), LARGE HAIL, AND  
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE  
INSTABILITY, STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND HIGH LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL  
HELICITY. MLCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 55  
TO 60 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR, AND 0-1 SRH VALUES IN NEAR 350  
M2/S2. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DEPICT LARGE  
LOOPING HODOGRAPHS WITH LOW LCLS. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO  
BEGIN MENTIONING THE THREAT OF A COUPLE OF STRONG AND POTENTIALLY  
LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEARLY 40  
METER HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM  
SECTOR BETWEEN 10AM AND 2PM AND COULD SPAWN A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS  
AHEAD OF AN ORGANIZING LINE OF CONVECTION.  
 
BY MID AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTH-  
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HREF GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH STORM MODE  
CHANGING FROM MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS TO A LINEAR MODE BETWEEN 2 AND  
4 PM AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ONCE THE LINE  
CONGEALS TOGETHER, AN ALL HAZARDS THREAT WILL UNFOLD AS THE LINE  
SWEEPS EASTWARD THROUGH LATE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND QLCS  
TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL  
AS SECONDARY THREATS. THE QLCS SHOULD CROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER  
BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER, A FEW TRAILING SHOWERS  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL  
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADVECT IN A POLAR AIRMASS ON SUNDAY. BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY.  
 
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
AND DIG ESE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LREF GUIDANCE IS  
RATHER CONSISTENT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH  
OF I-40. LREF PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL ARE NOW 75  
PERCENT OR GREATER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVIDED ON  
TOTALS WITH THE ECMWF MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS ON SNOWFALL  
TOTALS. NONETHELESS, THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR ACCUMULATING  
SNOW AT THIS POINT.  
 
THEREAFTER, THE POLAR VORTEX WILL UNLEASH A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR  
UPON THE MID-SOUTH. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS  
COULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR 72 HOURS OR MORE FOR WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS LOOK LIKELY DURING  
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE  
SINGLE DIGITS. WINTER IS NOT OVER YET.  
 
AC3  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2025  
 
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY  
TO ENCOMPASS THE AIRSPACE MOST OF THE EVENING. THIS TREND WILL  
CONTINUE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES ITS NORTHERN ASCENT. A SQUALL  
LINE WILL TAKE AIM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH A  
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
ELEVATED AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND A  
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED POST FRONTAL. GENERALLY MVFR AND IFR CIGS  
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE  
FURTHER WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AN AWW WILL LIKELY BE  
NEEDED FOR KMEM DURING FROPA. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY  
POST FRONTAL FROM THE NW. MVFR CONDS WILL END OUT THE PERIOD AND  
SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
 
DNM  
 
 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-  
048-049-058.  
 
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MOZ113-115.  
 
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.  
 
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-  
088>092.  
 
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3  
AVIATION...DNM  
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