671
FXUS64 KMEG 140442
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- COOLER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
MID-70S TO LOW 80S FOR MONDAY.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BY WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION, REMNANTS OF CONVECTION THAT SPAWNED
EARLIER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE FOR GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO BE HEAVY AS RAP
GUIDANCE PROGS PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 2.0" - 2.3" ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS HAS ALSO
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE, POSING A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
TAKING A BROADER LOOK ACROSS THE CONUS, THE PERSISTENT, LONG WAVE
TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO HAS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO
ALREADY DEVELOP A SECOND MCS IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
FORECAST MLCAPE/MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL REACH BETWEEN 1500 -
2000 J/KG, EVEN IN THE DEAD OF NIGHT, WHICH WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
THE CURRENT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL HAVE "WORKED OVER" THE AIR
MASS THROUGHOUT THE MID-SOUTH, LEADING TO LOWER INSTABILITY AND A
LOWER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. REGARDLESS, THE
SHEER HUMIDITY OF THE LEFTOVER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
INSTABILITY TO BE PRESENT TO WORK WITH. ANY CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SEVERE AS WEAK AND BOUNDARY-
PARALLEL EFFECTIVE SHEAR INHIBITS STORMS FROM ORGANIZING ALONG
THE OUTFLOW AS IT SURGES SOUTH. CAMS BRING THIS LINE INTO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AS EARLY AS 09Z -
10Z AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
BEHIND IT. LASTLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT MUTED, ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL REMAIN AS MOST GUIDANCE REFUSES TO MOVE IT ANYWHERE. THIS
TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT
WEEK WITH MULTIPLE WAVES EMANATING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, REINFORCING THE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY AND PUSHING TROPICAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE MID-
SOUTH. HIGHS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S MONDAY
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY. LOW (LESS THAN 30%)
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT.
THE WARMING TREND INTO WEDNESDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE A PRODUCT OF
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF AFTER THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THESE SAME
SOUTHERLIES WILL BRING THE TROPICAL AIR BACK TO THE REGION. THE
SAME STUBBORN TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
AN HIGHLY INFLUENTIAL PART OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, EVEN RETROGRADING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, A
CONTINUATION OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK IN PLACE, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED TO RISE DRAMATICALLY INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES MOVES OVER THIS AIR MASS AND A
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. THE EXACT EXTENT OF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON ANTECEDENT CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY AS WELL AS THE POSITION AND
EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE. FOR NOW, ONLY STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
ARE EXPECTED, BUT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST COULD BRING A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COMING DAYS. ENSEMBLES ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD MAKE IT
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY, COOLING DOWN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN
THE TUP AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. TIMING AND
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN SO WENT WITH A PROB30 DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AND JBR, MEM AND MKL AND A BIT LATER IN THE DAY AT TUP.
SOME GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION, WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page