774
FXUS64 KMEG 231629
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1129 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI EACH DAY.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY, WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THE LOCATION OF THIS
BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH TO REMAIN ON THE
"COOLER" SIDE FOR MID JULY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH TO
CENTRAL MS STILL APPROACHING 90 BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, WITH ISOLATED
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE MS. WITH THE ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON, CALM WINDS, AND GENERALLY LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYTIME, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A WEAK MCS WILL DESCEND OUT OF
MISSOURI AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM, MUCH OF THE CAM GUIDANCE THAT IS WITHIN RANGE SHOWS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CAPE, BUT GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES.
SHEAR COULD INCREASE VERY LOCALLY AS THE MCS APPROACHES, BUT FOR
THE MOST PART REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. WILL
NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, BUT OVERALL
THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, LEAVING BEHIND DRY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES GO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WE WILL REMAIN NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SPANNING
THE 80S TO LOW 90S. BY SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
CREEP BACK INTO THE LOW 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MS RIVER AND ACROSS THE
MS DELTA ON SATURDAY, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM THAT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW.
LREF AND NBM GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
DRY AND INCREASINGLY HOT FORECAST BY SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH THE MID-SOUTH
EITHER RIGHT ON THE CUSP ON THE RIDGE OR WELL BENEATH. THIS WILL
ALLOW A MUCH MORE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS TO RETURN TO THE REGION,
KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH DEW POINT VALUES INCREASING BACK TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S, THIS WILL ALLOW DAILY HEAT INDICES OF AT
LEAST 105, MANY POTENTIALLY REACHING OVER 110. AS SUCH, HEAT
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY AT LEAST SUNDAY, CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR CONDITIONS AT MEM AND TUP OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST HREF AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATE AT LEAST A MEDIUM CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
REDEVELOPING AT TUP OVERNIGHT NEAR A STALLED OUT SURFACE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. NE/E WINDS BETWEEN 8-11 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH
MINRH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40%. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL CEASE WITH HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CJC
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