381
FXUS64 KMEG 301808
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
108 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND LOW TEMPERATURES
ONLY COOLING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LOW (15-30%) INTO THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TODAY AS
HOT AND HUMID AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. NOON
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN THE 70S. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS PRODUCING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES REACHING
100 DEGREES IN THE SHORT TERM AS NBM GUIDANCE HAS EXHIBITED A
WARM BIAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS, TEMPERATURES
WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH WAS TRANSITIONED TO A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AN EXPANSION OF TIME
INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI DURING PEAK HEATING AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW AT BEST. SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE A SLIGHT,
BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
COVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK WILL OCCUR MOSTLY DURING AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
OVERNIGHT, CALM WINDS MAY ENCOURAGE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR
MKL AND TUP. HOWEVER, IMPACTS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH WINDS
BECOMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 3-5 KTS AROUND SUNRISE.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ANS
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