616
FXUS64 KMEG 101802
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1202 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-50 PERCENT) OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, WITH LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THIS
COLD AND DRY PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AS MANY LOCATIONS DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE AREA.
MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES TO THE MID-SOUTH MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE LIMITED
MOISTURE INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS, ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED DURATION 20-30% POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID-SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES
STILL REMAIN WITHIN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS THE ECMWF IS DRIER,
SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPER THAN THE GFS. THUS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR TIMING OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A MVFR STRATUS DECK, BROUGHT IN BY YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, WILL
MOVE EAST, PAST OUR AREA BY AROUND 03Z, CLEARING TERMINALS WEST
TO EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THIS DECK. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AIDED BY A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
GUSTS WILL BRIEFLY DROP OUT THIS EVENING BEFORE PICKING UP TO
25 KTS ONCE AGAIN AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
TERMINALS. THIS WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT RESULTING IN NO MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION OR LOWERED CEILINGS WITH THIS PASSAGE.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH
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