805
FXUS64 KMEG 241158
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
658 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
WEDNESDAY WAS A TALE OF TWO AREAS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH
THOSE SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVERAGE BARELY REACHING INTO THE 70S
WHEREAS OTHER LOCATIONS UNDER SUNNY SKIES REACHED THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. CLOUD COVERAGE HAS REMAINED ACROSS GENERALLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER,
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THIS COVERAGE. THE
MAIN QUESTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE IF SOME OF THE CLOUD COVERAGE TO OUR NORTHEAST
WILL BE ABLE TO FILTER BACK INTO THE MID-SOUTH. IF THIS DOES
HAPPEN, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HOWEVER, IF THIS CLOUD
COVERAGE DOES NOT REBUILD THROUGH THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID 80S.
BY FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RETURN TO ABOVE-NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY, ALLOWING
FOR A FEW WEEK DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW, THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO RETURN SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL STILL LIKELY NOT BRING
WIDESPREAD, MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE AREA.
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
PERIOD, THINGS DO BECOME QUITE UNCERTAIN. WHILE GUIDANCE DOES
AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM IS HIGHLY VARIABLE. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE IS
STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE INTERACTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
HURRICANE POLO IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN, WHICH COULD PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW THIS TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS QUITE
SPREAD WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ENS GUIDANCE
FAVORS A SHARPER COOL DOWN THAT REMAINS POSTFRONTAL, WHILE GEFS
GUIDANCE HAS A MORE SHALLOW COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
REBOUNDING AFTER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL GET OUR FIRST SHOT
OF SOME MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION, BUT THE TIMING IS STILL
COMPLEX. ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE WILL HOPEFULLY BE GAINED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS AS MORE GUIDANCE COMES IN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
AN EXPANSIVE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK, RANGING FROM 1000-3200 FT,
CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
TRENDS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST CIGS WILL BOTTOM OUT THROUGH
15Z BEFORE GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING LIFTS CEILINGS BACK TO
VFR AROUND 18Z (60% CONFIDENCE). HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN PERSISTENT
MVFR CIGS REMAINS AT MKL AND JBR, WHEREAS MEM REMAINS ON THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF THE STRATUS, WARRANTING A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH
15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR TRANSIENT CEILING DROPS. AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE SCATTER OUT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. CALM WINDS
AND RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE SUPPORT A MEDIUM TO HIGH
PROBABILITY FOR LIGHT FOG/MVFR VSBY DEVELOPMENT AT MKL AND TUP
AFTER 06Z.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
ABOVE 40% ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
FALLING JUST BELOW 40% INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL LIKELY WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...AC3
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page