023
FXUS64 KMEG 161056
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
556 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BY
WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
- WE ARE MONITORING TROPICAL ACTIVITY THAT MAY BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE MID-SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH HAVE WORKED INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI,
THOUGH ANY RAIN REMAINS TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. SOME DRIER AIR
HAS MANAGED TO WORK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID-SOUTH,
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, MAKING FOR A
COMFORTABLE EVENING.
THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL WOBBLE A BIT AND PUSH A FEW
SHOWERS INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
MAINLY SOUTH OF A CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO LINE, WHERE THERE IS A 40-
60% CHANCE OF ONE-QUARTER INCH OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 80S ON TUESDAY AND CLOSE TO 90 BY
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE (15-25%)
OF SHOWERS TO AREAS ALONG THE KY/MO BORDERS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE NHC IS FORECASTING A 50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
IN THE NW GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OPERATIONAL MODELS
LIFT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROPICAL FEATURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES.
LATEST RUNS SEEM TO PUSH THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE EAST RATHER THAN
NORTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES, WHICH MAY KEEP THE HEAVIER
RAIN CONFINED TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES IS
LIKELY. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH
LATER THIS WEEK.
THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST, AND A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A DRY AND MILD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND REASONABLE HUMIDITY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS. CHANCE POPS AND HIGH HUMIDITY RETURN FOR SUNDAY AS WE
MOVE BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR, THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH TO
TRIGGER STORMS WITH THE MAIN ENERGY STILL WELL NW OF THE REGION.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONTINUES AT TERMINALS WITH VFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
A FRONT WILL THEN DROP SOUTH, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AT JBR, ALTHOUGH IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. THE CIGS
OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL BEGIN TO DROP INTO MVFR OVERNIGHT,
IMPACTING TUP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
IMPACTING MEM. THERE WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO MAKE IT TO TUP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
RECENT WETTING RAINS AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION, WETTING
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JAB
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