613
FXUS64 KMEG 161140
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
640 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-
SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM, PREVENTING
RECOVERY AND CREATING STRESS FOR AT-RISK POPULATIONS.
- HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES A 599 DM HIGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH HAS BROUGHT A
CONTINUATION OF THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE MID-SOUTH INTO THIS WEEKEND LATE EVENING
TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN QUITE WARM IN THE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.
ANOTHER VERY HOT AND OPPRESSIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO MIX OUT AS MUCH
AS THEY DID ON SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING AGAIN TO
110 DEGREES OR HIGHER DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS, THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST 8 PM SUNDAY
EVENING. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (<10%) FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE REMAINS
LOW WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO RETROGRADE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS, AND AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40 AT OR ABOVE 110 DEGREES, AND 105 DEGREES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THUS, ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS MAY LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO
EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR MAINLY LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS SOME
LOCATIONS NECESSITATING ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES.
MID TO LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS INDICATE
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL COME LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NORMALS FOR MID-
AUGUST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SITES TODAY, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST. WHILE SOME
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, THE PROBABILITY OF COVERAGE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
DANGEROUS HEAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 110 F THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND UP TO 110 F ON MONDAY. FIRE DANGERS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LOW AMIDST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 30% AND 40% WITH LIGHT 20FT WINDS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE, LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AR, THE MO BOOTHEEL, AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001>017-
020>024.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-
019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3
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