570
FXUS64 KMEG 231720
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL FEATURE SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
11:30 AM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID 80S. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL TAKE
OVER THIS AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS STREAMS NEAR A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE ARKLATEX CONCURRENTLY AS A THICK STRATUS DECK
STRETCHES FROM AN MCS OVER OKLAHOMA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REACH THE MID-SOUTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RRFS DEPICTS A SWATH OF 250-500 J/KG
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WHILE
NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY, IT IS ENOUGH TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SHEAR DOES TAPER OFF
(<30 KTS) AS YOU INCH FURTHER EAST INTO MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENT THAT THE MCV CAN HOLD TOGETHER,
SO THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS APPROPRIATE.
THE MCV WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS WITH COVERAGE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY THE
AFTERNOON. TYPICAL, SUMMER TYPE SINGLE CELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR AFTER THE MCV IS FREE OF THE AREA. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS
COULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING DUE TO THE MCV, HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING
TO FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN DURING ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. RATHER SATURATED SOILS AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1.5" WILL ALLOW ANY STORM TO BE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCER.
NONETHELESS, DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS TOMORROW.
A WARM FRONT WILL FUEL HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONDITIONS TO RETURN ON
THURSDAY AS HIGHS CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THIS MAY SPARK A FEW WAA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE IS
LESS THAN 15% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS BEING
PRESENT. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 90S, BUT LACK OF SHEAR WILL LEAD TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INTO NEXT WEEK,
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY
JULY.
DNM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AT
MKL, WHERE LIGHT FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS.
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS
AT JBR AND MEM. DUE TO MODERATE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
AND INTENSITY, A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST
RATHER THAN A PREVAILING MENTION. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THE
OVERALL EXPECTATION, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. WINDS
WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTH AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
RECENT WETTING RAINS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. MINRH VALUES ABOVE 40% AND DAILY BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AC3
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