325
FXUS64 KMEG 280346
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1046 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MONDAY
AFTERNOON. USE CAUTION IF BURNING OUTDOORS AND OBEY ALL LOCAL
BURN BANS.
- A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S.
- RAIN SHOWER CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SUNDAY EVENING SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS PLACE A
CLOSED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW YORK COASTLINE.
TO ITS WEST, WEAK NORTHERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST WITH A WEAK AXIS OF RIDGING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
VERY DRY AIR MASS PRESENT OVER THE MID-SOUTH WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING BETWEEN 45 - 55 F. SUCH DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO QUICK
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE LOW 60S AND 50S TONIGHT. FURTHERMORE, CLOUD
COVER, WHICH WAS FORECAST TO BE MORE PREVALENT BY THIS POINT IN
THE FORECAST, HAS GENERALLY FAILED TO DEVELOP, LEADING TO A
FASTER DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE, SOME AREAS COULD SEE LOWS
APPROACH 50 DEGREES MONDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY TO THAT OF SUNDAY WITH A
DRY, SEASONABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S AND PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER. HOWEVER, BOTH THE REFS AND
HREF SHOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING WELL BELOW
30%, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. PORTIONS OF THE
REGION, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, HAVE A 50%
CHANCE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20%, WHICH MUCH OF THE
REGION ACHIEVED TODAY. THIS SAME FORECAST, OR SOMETHING SIMILAR,
LOOKS LIKELY ON TUESDAY AS WELL GIVEN THE UPPER AND SURFACE
PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PERSISTENT. SO, EXPECT ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, WHAT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO WILL HAVE
PHASED INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE COMBINED TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN SWING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH RIDGING
AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
IN RESPONSE, SOUTHERLIES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH,
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LINGER THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ENCOURAGE HIGHER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SURFACE PATTERN AMONGST GUIDANCE THAT WILL DICTATE THE
OVERALL SCOPE AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE HAS ROUGHLY A 40% - 50% CHANCE FOR
12 HOUR RAINFALL ACCUMULATION TO EXCEED .25" SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SO, RAINIER WEATHER MAY BE ON THE HORIZON BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR CHANGES TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NNE WINDS BETWEEN 5-
8 KTS ON MONDAY, THEN BECOME LIGHT BY MONDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO NEAR
OR BELOW 30% AREAWIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO PLACE A 40% - 50% FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI, EASTERN ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE TO SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BELOW 20%. GIVEN THAT OBSERVATIONS
SUNDAY SHOWED MANY AREAS ACROSS THE REGION DROPPING TO 20% OR
BELOW, IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SAME GUIDANCE ALSO DISPLAYS A SIMILAR
FORECAST TUESDAY. ON TOP OF THE DRY AIR, 10-HOUR FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP TO NEAR 10% MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WETTING RAINS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEREFORE, FIRE DANGER REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
UNTIL MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED LATER THIS WEEK. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE AT WETTING RAINS IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS LATER
THIS WEEK WHERE CHANGES IN TIMING FOR THE ONSET AND MAGNITUDE OF
ANY WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC
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