105
FXUS64 KMEG 281739
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
- DANGEROUS AND OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES INTO TUESDAY.
SOME LOCATIONS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 110 DEGREES LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURED A 594 DM RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING UP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS
OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. A VERY WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 DEGREES WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CENTER OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH MONDAY AND OVER THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS INTO MIDWEEK. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM TO 27-29C WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES THIS WEEK. THESE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 105 TO 109 DEGREES. THE HEAT
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE START OF THE EXISTING EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCH WAS PUSHED BACK TO WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING QUESTIONS
REMAINING ABOUT THE NBM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TRENDING A
LITTLE TOO HIGH.
LREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY CREEP
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A LOW END (15-25% ) CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY RELIEF
FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS THESE CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KTS AT
JBR/MEM THROUGH AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT.
WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ001>012-020.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MSZ013>017-021>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH
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