364  
FXUS64 KMEG 282024  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
224 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
FLOODING AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS  
THROUGH LATE EVENING. DAMAGING WING GUSTS, A FEW TORNADOES AND FLASH  
FLOODING ARE ALL POSSIBLE.  
 
THIS AFTERNOONS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOWER/MID 60S DEWPOINTS  
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN KY AND SOUTHEAST MO. DEWPOINTS OVER NORTHEAST  
AR WERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, BUT SHOULD WARM WITH THE SURFACE WARM  
FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A  
CENTRAL WI SURFACE LOW SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MO/OK AND WEST TX.  
THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.  
STORMS SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  
 
WITH BROKEN CLOUDS, AREAS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 1500+ J/KG MLCAPE  
THIS AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50+ KTS AND  
HELICITY VALUES AROUND 300 WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM  
STRUCTURES. WITH THAT BEING SAID, DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NEARLY  
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WHICH WILL FAVOR A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE.  
WITHIN THIS LINE EXPECT TRAINING STORMS THAT WILL CAUSE FLASH  
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY  
RECEIVED 3 INCHES. OTHER THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND  
TORNADOES. HAIL DOESN'T SEEM AS BIG OF A THREAT BUT THERE'S STILL  
A POSSIBILITY. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.8 INCHES WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF  
THE COLD FRONT EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF LATE FEBRUARY  
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMATOLOGY. AS FAR AS TIMING, THE LINE SHOULD  
MOVE THROUGH AROUND 3 PM AND CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND FINALLY  
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY.  
 
BY TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL, LIGHTER RAIN AS A CLOSED  
SHOW PASSES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. WE SHOULD HAVE A SLIGHT DRY  
PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BY THE WEEKEND A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL DART ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PUSH MORE SHOWERS  
INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, MODELS HAVE OUR  
AREA COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT DRY.  
 
SGW  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION  
WILL OCCURRING AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD IMPACT  
MOST THE AREA AFTER 21Z. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A  
COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY  
OCCUR WITH THE CONVECTION, BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY  
BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AS DIRECTION  
SWITCHES TO THE NW AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH.  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-  
PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.  
 
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-GREENE-  
MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT.  
 
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.  
 
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-  
CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-  
MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-  
TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.  
 
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-  
DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-  
MCNAIRY-SHELBY-TIPTON.  
 
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CROCKETT-DYER-GIBSON-  
HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-WEAKLEY.  
 

 
 

 
 
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