699
FXUS64 KMEG 241723
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1223 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, BRINGING A RETURN TO HIGHER
HUMIDITY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, POTENTIALLY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN OR
GUSTY WINDS, ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DANGEROUS, OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARRIVE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES OF 105
OR GREATER EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. WHILE SOME DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS
PREVENTED SOME OF THE CURRENT RADAR ECHOS FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE, SOME OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTING PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
TO LIGHT RAIN. CLOUDINESS WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS LED TO
TEMPERATURES REMAINING A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE, SO HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SUCH. A
BAND OF SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS HAS SET UP ACROSS EAST AR INTO NORTH
MS WHERE PWAT VALUES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2.3" RIGHT ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, WE
SHOULD SEE A SMALL BREAK IN ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IN THE EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY BOUNDARY SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD.
PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2 TO 2.5" ACROSS THE
AREA, WHICH PUTS US WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH MOST CAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING A
SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. WHILE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE
SOME STRONGER WINDS, I THINK THE LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ON SATURDAY. CAM GUIDANCE DOES REMAIN SPREAD
ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD OCCUR AND THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. I DO THINK SOME PORTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF AROUND 2" WHILE OTHERS VERY WELL
COULD REMAIN DRY.
BY SUNDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO OUR
SOUTH WITH A VERY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS FUNNELING INTO THE MID-
SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S ON SUNDAY
AND LIKELY UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
REACH ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH MANY REACHING
OVER 110 DEGREES. LREF PROBABILITIES OF HEAT INDICES OVER 110
DEGREES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 50% FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXACT PLACEMENT OF EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS / HEAT
ADVISORIES IS STILL A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT, BUT HEAT HEADLINES WILL
CERTAINLY BE NEEDED BY SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY, A
BACK-DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH
WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO FALL BACK A BIT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH. WHILE THINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE- NORMAL TEMPERATURE
WISE, HEAT HEADLINES MAY BECOME MORE SPORADIC TO END NEXT WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, BUT PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND BEGIN TO TAKE
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY. CONVECTION HAS REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OF TAF SITES, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT MEM AND TUP THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND DROP INTO TAF SITES TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS COVERAGE REMAINS LOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO IMPROVE AT MEM, NECESSITATING A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE START
OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
ANY CONVECTION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
MINIMAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS MINRH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY SUNDAY, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CJC
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