610
FXUS64 KMEG 182342 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
642 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH TODAY, RESULTING
IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TREK ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY, EJECTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-
SOUTH. AS OF 1130 AM, THIS BOUNDARY IS PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT TRANSLATES
SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z CAMS STILL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY BE OVERTAKEN BY THE FRONT,
LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY, EXPECT INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
COOL AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE MID-SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL DROP TO THE 25 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE, CREATING HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
GIVEN RECENT WETTING RAINS, A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER AS SURFACE WINDS EXCEED
10 MPH AND DEAD FUEL MOISTURE REACHES 10 PERCENT. THERE IS MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THAT A FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT WILL BE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, ENDING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY. BOTH THE GEFS AND
ENS DEPICT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS UPCOMING FRIDAY. THE
PRECISE MECHANISM DRIVING THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARIES, BUT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO FORECAST A WET END TO THE WEEK.
ANS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
POST-FRONTAL CIGS AT MEM AND MKL ARE SET TO IMPROVE TO VFR, PER
UPSTREAM 23Z METARS AT JBR, HKA AND AWM. THROUGH 01Z OR 02ZM
PATCHY -DZ WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR.
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT TUP, WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF -SHRA EXTENDING BACK THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION.
EVENTUALLY, VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT TUP DURING THE OVERNIGHT,
WITH HIGH-BASED -SHRA EXITING TO THE EAST.
DRY MID-CONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR TO ALL
THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MINRH DROPS TO 25-30% EACH DAY. RECENT WETTING RAINS WILL NEGATE
THE NEED FOR A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER, INCREASING 20FT WINDS AND DEAD FUEL MOISTURE NEAR
10 PERCENT MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ON TUESDAY. ELEVATED
DEWPOINTS RETURN WEDNESDAY, ENDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page