329
FXUS64 KMEG 021110
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
610 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS CREEPING
INTO THE 80S.
- WETTER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST EACH DAY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST PASSED THROUGH TISHOMINGO COUNTY AS OF
10 PM WITH A SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE DIGGING OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. A
MOISTURE AXIS LEADING THE SHORTWAVE AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THE MOISTURE
AXIS HAS STRUGGLED TO CLIMB NORTH AND VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION,
IF ANY, OCCURRED DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS ON FRIDAY. COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
BY MONDAY, SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM
THE WEST CAUSING A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S,
AHEAD OF AN EAST/NORTHEAST PROPAGATING LONGWAVE TROUGH. A STOUT
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE, RESULTING IN
INCREASED POPS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY, DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE NORMAL RANGE ON TUESDAY EARLY MAY (IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S).
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO AIM AT THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH IS STILL SUBJECT TO
CHANGE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EARLIER WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUN. WITH THIS BOUNDARY, EXPECT A GREATER THAN 50% POP FROM
TUESDAY UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER, THE
WARM SECTOR ALIGNING WITH THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS IS FAVORED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 40-60% JOINT
PROBABILITY OF CAPE > 500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR > 30 KTS ON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA, WHICH IS A GOOD FIRST
GUESS AT AVAILABLE SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS. THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS AND AS TIMING CONTINUES TO CHANGE, WE WILL MONITOR
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF
COOLER AND DRIER AIR RESIDING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT
TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO CALM AFTER 00Z, VEERING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST NEAR THE END
OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
RH VALUES TODAY WILL HOVER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 35%, BUT FUEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT 20 FT WINDS PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CMA
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