200
FXUS64 KMEG 281125 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
625 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND LINGERING DROUGHT MAINTAIN ELEVATED FIRE
RISKS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE FRIDAY FOR THE HALLOWEEN
WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS BEGUN TO BREAK DOWN DUE TO A SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AS OF 9 PM. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE WILL
BE FELT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. UNTIL SATURDAY,
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S. A SLOW CHANGE IN HUMIDITY WILL BE FELT AS RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS AND ADVECTS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH THIS, RH
VALUES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY AT
THE LATEST. CONTINUE TO HEED ALL LOCAL BURN BANS AS DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ENCOMPASS THE REGION AND CONTINUE TO CAUSE DRY FUELS.
THIS WEEKEND’S PATTERN SHIFT IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING HEIGHTENED
RAIN CHANCES FOR HALLOWEEN, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDING
LATER WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STARTING AFTER 7 PM
HALLOWEEN NIGHT. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER WITH AN
EARLIER ONSET. LREF SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THE COLUMN BEING
SATURATED UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO THIS IS
SUPPORTIVE OF THE LATEST TRENDS. DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION EXCEEDING ONE
INCH ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE.
ONCE THIS FEATURE SWINGS THROUGH, A BRIEF LULL WILL RETURN TO
START THE WORK WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOST GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING
ANOTHER SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH, BUT DISAGREEMENTS ON
EVOLUTION AND TIMING KEEP DETAILS LIMITED. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER ONCE AGAIN AT THIS POINT, WITH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT; ALBEIT THE LREF HAS SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS (>500
J/KG OF CAPE AND >30KTS OF SHEAR) LESS THAN 25%. NONETHELESS, THIS
IS STILL IN THE LONG RANGE AND WE WILL MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
LIGHT SE WINDS AND VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, COURTESY
OF DRY MIDCONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ALLEVIATED AS WE MOVE INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SETTLING OVER THE MID-SOUTH. ONE FINAL RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY, BUT THEREAFTER WE
ANTICIPATE AN END TO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS. WETTING RAIN CHANCES
RETURN SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING HALLOWEEN
WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT EACH MORNING TO FEATURE PATCHY FOG IN
LOW-LYING AREAS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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