629
FXUS64 KMEG 110446
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1046 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A RELATIVELY COOL AND CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH WITH A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS CONTINUING TO
FUNNEL INTO THE AREA. THE WEEK AHEAD APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A
ROLLER COASTER ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY. ALOFT, WEAK NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW WILL PRESENT
LITTLE TO NO WEATHER FOR OUR AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL, SPANNING THE 40S
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING BACK A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF SHOWERS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE VAST MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE HAS THIS PRECIPITATION AXIS MOVING OUT BEFORE THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE. THEREFORE, WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT PUSHES EAST ON
THURSDAY. WHILE ALL SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL TO END THE WEEKEND, THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN HOW A POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND PLAYS
OUT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MID-SOUTH DRY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY AND
BEYOND THUS KEEPING FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD
OUT OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 18 KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THROUGH
THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. WHILE A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD ALLEVIATE ANY MAJOR
CONCERNS. MINRH VALUES MAY DIP BELOW 40% FOR SOME IN THE
AFTERNOONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH 20 FT WINDS APPROACHING
10 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO
BOOTHEEL. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page