144  
FXUS64 KMEG 210932  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
432 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE  
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE, LIMITED CHANCES OF RAIN WILL  
WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF  
THE MONTH.  
 
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL FLATTEN  
SUNDAY NIGHT, IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN BRANCH TROF PASSING  
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL  
EXPOSE THE MIDSOUTH TO THE WESTERLIES ON MONDAY, WHILE A WEAK  
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT,  
SURFACE HEATING AND MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL PROVIDE THE MIDSOUTH  
WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY WITH THE EXIT OF THE  
NORTHERN BRANCH TROF. CONCURRENTLY, THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RETURN  
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE 00Z GFS WAS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN  
GENERATING STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE ARKLAMISS ON ON TUESDAY,  
LIKELY A DOWNSTREAM EXTENSION OF STORMS EARLIER IN THE MORNING  
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DEPICTED  
LESS RAINFALL UNDER THE BUILDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE. REALITY MAY LIE  
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN, WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE  
MORE HUMID AIR OVER EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTH MS.  
 
WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW  
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AREAS NORTH OF I-40  
COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS, ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A  
BUILDING LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND MIDLEVEL CONVECTIVE CAP.  
 
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST  
U.S. RETROGRADING WEST AND AMPLIFYING BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS  
PLACES THE 500MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT CENTER DIRECTLY OVER THE  
MIDSOUTH AT 5970 METERS NEXT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BE A  
STRONGER THAN NORMAL UPPER RIDGE FOR MIDSUMMER, LET ALONE A FULL  
WEEK PAST THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX. A DRY AND HOT START TO OCTOBER IS  
APPEARING MORE LIKELY.  
 
PWB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24-30  
HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 7-10KT  
TOMORROW.  
 
30  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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