765
FXUS64 KMEG 081117
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
- THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY. PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL, TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES
OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
- RAINFALL FROM ISAIAS WILL EXIT THE MIDSOUTH EARLY SUNDAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL TURN DRY AND WARM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
ISAIAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY EVENING. PER NHC, ISAIAS
HAS JUST REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH.
OVERALL, LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM THE 4 PM / 21Z ADVISORY
REGARDING POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE MIDSOUTH. THESE IMPACTS WILL
PRIMARILY OCCUR BETWEEN SUNRISE SATURDAY AND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL LIMIT, BUT NOT PRECLUDE FLOODING CONCERNS.
AT THIS TIME, 1-3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY, WITH HALF OR MORE OF
THIS RAINFALL OCCURRING SATURDAY MORNING. WITH MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH IN D2 TO D4 DROUGHT, BUT DRY GROUND WILL NOT COMPLETELY
MITIGATE A FLOODING CONCERN IF RAIN RATES ARE HIGH. A FLOOD WATCH
IS NOT PLANNED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE BUT MAY BE CONSIDERED IN
FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES.
WE ARE JUST OUTSIDE THE WINDOW FOR HIGH RES-CAM GUIDANCE, BUT
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE REFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE
A POTENTIAL FOR 35+ MPH GUSTS OVER NORTHEAST MS AND THE TN RIVER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER COULD SEE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FLAT
LAND SURFACE. ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE
RIGHT/EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF ISAIAS' REMNANT LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE TN RIVER.
RAIN AND WIND FROM ISAIAS' REMNANT LOW WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY REACH 594DAM AT 500MB,
CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. MIDWEEK NBM MAX TEMPS
APPEAR TOO COOL FOR THIS PATTERN, LIKELY DUE TO SEASONAL BIAS
CORRECTION.
ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT IN THE 18Z GLOBAL MODELS,
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEATBOARD LATE
NEXT WEEK, AS A DEEP PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE THROUGH LIFTS THROUGH
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND VFR SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24-
30 HOUR TAF CYCLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY GUSTY WINDS ON
SATURDAY, AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAIAS MOVE THROUGH.
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED, WITH GREATEST
AMOUNTS OVER FAR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS
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