986
FXUS64 KMEG 190408
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1108 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER
RETURNING TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH ON FRIDAY, AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
- A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
SPREADING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWARD.
- A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR HAVE QUICKLY MOVED EAST AND OUT OF THE
PICTURE. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THIS EVENING AND WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY JUST SOUTH OF I-40 AT 10 PM.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT HAS SIMMERED
DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT, AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID-SOUTH, WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL
FALL INTO THE 60S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT. A STRONG PULSE STORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, GIVEN SBCAPES AROUND
1500 J/KG.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP BACK UP. THERE IS
NOT MUCH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN STORMS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD, SO WE WILL MAINLY RELY ON HEATING TO TRIGGER DEVELOPMENT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION, AND A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW HELP TO TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES POINT TO SOME RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE STILL TO BE WORKED
OUT. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO OCCUR AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMB BACK TOWARDS 2 INCHES.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE I-
20 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED
TO EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 80S, WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE LATEST GUIDANCE PLACES THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
MKL AND TUP OVERNIGHT, THOUGH VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL CEASE BY 12Z.
MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH WINDS
REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH AT 6 TO 8 KTS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION,
THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE AT TUP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IN ACTIVITY REACHING MEM HAS DECREASED, SO REMOVED
SHOWERS FROM TAF.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS
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