292
FXUS64 KMEG 150512
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1112 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- WEEKEND RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE HALF TO 2 INCH RANGE,
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.
- A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BY
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
TEXARKANA REGION, WHICH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE LOW AS A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ALONG
WITH A LIFTING WARM FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN RESPONSE TO THESE
FEATURES HAS ALREADY ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME AS THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF WAA SHIFTS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OBSERVED PWATS FROM UPSTREAM AT JAN AND
SHV SHOW VALUES OF 1.23" AND 1.64" AS OF 00Z, WHICH ARE WELL
WITHIN THE 95TH - 99TH PERCENTILE RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD ALLUDE TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT
IN URBAN AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MITIGATED IN MOST AREAS BY ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND HIGH FFG VALUES (> 3") AND LOW INSTABILITY
HINDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THE CORRIDOR
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST BY
SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD, COMPLETELY ENDING
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, ANYWHERE FROM 1" -
2" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS FORECAST ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF I-40.
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRAVELS EAST TONIGHT, AN ONGOING QLCS WILL
OUTPACE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO ALABAMA, EFFECTIVELY OCCLUDING
THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER, MATURATION OF THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS.
WHAT IS LEFT IS A COMBINATION OF ISALLOBARIC WIND AND
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS THAT WILL ACT
IN COMBINATION TO DEVELOP A MESOSCALE AREA OF STRONG WINDS. HRRR
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN DISPLAYING THIS OCCURRING TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, NEAR PLACES LIKE
CLARKSDALE, BATESVILLE, AND OXFORD. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO
35 MPH - 40 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS STILL
TOO UNCERTAIN FOR THE PLACEMENT OF A TARGETED WIND ADVISORY AS
RRFS GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THESE WINDS SOUTH OF THE REGION.
REGARDLESS, THE CONVECTIVE SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION WILL
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BY 12Z WITH WINDS BEING ONLY DRIVEN BY
ISALLOBARIC PROCESSES. HOWEVER, CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF THE
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED WINDS STILL REMAINING
ELEVATED IN THE 10 MPH - 20 MPH RANGE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE THE LOW
STARTS TO WEAKEN.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TOMORROW EVENING AND BRING DRY
WEATHER BACK INTO THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH EXITS THE CONUS MONDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. WEAK CAA WILL ONLY MARGINALLY DROP
TEMPERATURES, WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER
RIDGE, WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL START IN THE 60S MONDAY, CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
COULD FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A TROUGH EXITS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. GUIDANCE THEN BRINGS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A COLD
FRONT DOWN INTO OUR REGION BY FRIDAY, ENDING OUR WARMING PATTERN.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT FRIDAY. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED BACK INTO THE
REGION TO WHERE SOME PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE, SUCH AS
TODAY'S GFS/ECMWF RUNS, SHOW SOME WEAK MUCAPE ALONG THE FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES LEAD TO
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN EXACT IMPACTS FROM ANY CONVECTION.
MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT SWEEPING CLEAN THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH A COOLER PATTERN SETTING IN BEHIND IT INTO NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN
PROB30) OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR LEVELS BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS TOMORROW BEFORE MIDDAY AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE
FRONT. POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW AROUND
10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
WETTING RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TODAY INCREASING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE 50% TOMORROW. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL TOP
OUT AT AROUND 2 INCHES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
20 FT WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS
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