375
FXUS64 KMEG 071703
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1203 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
- A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY DRY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. LOW TO MEDIUM (30 TO 40 PERCENT) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS RETURN TODAY AS THE
WEAK UPPER LOW THAT HAS LINGERED FOR THE PAST WEEK RETREATS EAST
OF THE REGION. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH STORM COVERAGE INCREASING AHEAD OF
IT OVER CENTRAL MO. PAST HRRR RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY FROM THIS
IMPULSE. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF
UPPER LAPSE RATES AND FORCING MECHANISMS THAT COULD HINDER DEEPER
CONVECTION. TO THE EAST ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER, MOISTURE IS
MORE ADEQUATE AS THE 12Z NASHVILLE PROFILE DISPLAYING HIGH LOW-
LEVEL RH UP TO NEARLY 700 MB. DIURNAL HEAT HAS ALREADY ALLOWED FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP, WHICH SHOULD GROW IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON BRINGING ISOLATED (20%-30%) RAIN CHANCES
WITHIN THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.
PERSISTENT UPPER HEIGHT RISES WILL LEAD TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, RIDGING IS NOT GOING TO BE
AS SEVERE AS JULY'S HEAT WAVE, WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
AT OR AROUND 100 F BY FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING IS POSSIBLE
INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT NBM GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO BRING AREAS OUTSIDE
OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI UP HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ABOVE.
EVEN THEN, 105+ F HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL SCATTERED ENOUGH TO
REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR HEAT PRODUCTS IN THESE REGIONS.
REGARDLESS, THE PLEASANT WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST
WEEK WILL BEGIN TO SOUR THIS WEEKEND WITH UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT
TAKING OVER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE, WHILE
STILL PREVALENT AT THE SURFACE, HAS BEEN SCOURED ALOFT AFTER LAST
WEEK'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITHOUT THIS MOISTURE, DAILY SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE IS UNLIKELY TO
RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN UPPER HIGH. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW
BACK TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AND WITH IT, MOISTURE. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTENING AS 850-700 MB DAILY
MAXIMUM RH INCREASES FROM 70% INTO THE UPPER 80% THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY MONDAY, PWATS WILL BE BACK AROUND 2" WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN POPS UP TO 40%. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING SETS UP OFF THE EAST
COAST WITH LOW-MEDIUM (30%-40%) CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 8 TO 9 KTS AT BOTH MEM AND JBR.
THE TAILWIND THRESHOLD FOR FEDEX COULD BE MET AS EARLY AS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT WIND DIRECTION REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES. CONTINUED WITH A SW
DIRECTION AT THIS TIME, WHICH KEEP WINDS BELOW THRESHOLD.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS PERIOD AS LIGHT 20FT WINDS AND MINRH
VALUES ABOVE 50 PERCENT PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AC3
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