207
FXUS64 KMEG 031223
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
723 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
- ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES (AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS AT
MEMPHIS AND TUPELO.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK, GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE TRAVERSING THE
UPPER MIDWEST. FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN WI, A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PWAT) EDGING UP TOWARD 1.4" AS FAR NORTH AS MEMPHIS. BASED
ON NEARBY SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR EARLY APRIL. MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA, LIMITING INSTABILITY AND LARGE-
SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST, WE'LL EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD SLIGHTLY. THIS
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS DIURNAL CONVECTION ON FRIDAY, KEEPING MOST
OF THE AREA DRY. THAT SAID, A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (20-40%)
WITH A LOW PROBABILITY (20% OR LESS) FOR A THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE
WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. SOUTH WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG TOMORROW BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEAST AR AND SOUTHEAST MO, WHERE GUSTS MAY STILL ECLIPSE
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WE'LL ALSO REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S. MEMPHIS AND TUPELO WILL MAKE A RUN AT DAILY RECORDS
(RECORD HIGHS ARE 86 AND 87 DEGREES, RESPECTIVELY).
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY AS A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE PLAINS. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
STRONGER FORCING ARRIVING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
MAIN VORT LOBE SWEEPS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY,
SERVING AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE CWA
WILL BE FAVORABLY LOCATED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MESOSCALE ASCENT
ENHANCED ALONG THE COLD FRONT VIA THE DIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATION.
CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 750-1500 J/KG,
BUT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY ISN'T WELL ALIGNED WITH THE
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (FARTHER NORTH). THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF
THE CURRENT MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND. REGARDLESS OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
A WETTING RAINFALL. NAEFS PWAT PERCENTILES EXCEED THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF EARLY APRIL CLIMATOLOGY (1.50") AND FRONTAL FORCING
SHOULD PROVIDE A BROAD RAINFALL FOOTPRINT. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN ARE IN THE 70-80% RANGE AS OF THIS EVENING,
INDICATING MOST AREAS WILL PICK UP 1-2". LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH A CEILING GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 3".
RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.
BENIGN POST-FRONTAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 10 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S, WHICH IS JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT LARGER-THAN-
TYPICAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY WARMING
THROUGH THE 70S BY LATE WEEK, BUT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO
THE 40S FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK. IN FACT, SOME
AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TN INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST
AR, MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S ONE OR TWO MORNINGS. NBM
PROBABILITIES INDICATE ROUGHLY A 25% CHANCE OF A LIGHT FROST IN
THESE AREAS (TEMPERATURE 36F OR COOLER W/ RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS). IT'S CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
OTHERWISE, RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE WEEK. WHILE
WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, THE
DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPPING INTO THE 25-30%
RANGE IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, THIS COULD
RESULT IN MINOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MJ
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
CURRENT MVFR STRATUS DECK BLANKETS THE AIRSPACE, BUT SHOULD
SCATTER OUT BY 18Z AT THE LATEST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE AIRSPACE AROUND 00Z AND BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT. LONG-LIVED SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA IS
LIKELY TO BEGIN AT JBR FIRST AS EARLY AS 09Z. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY, ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AS WHAT WE SAW THURSDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40%, WITH POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST TN. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY, INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE DRY AIR MASS NEXT
WEEK WILL SUPPORT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 25-35% RANGE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ
AVIATION...PWB
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