677
FXUS64 KMEG 030522
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1122 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
- RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE MID-SOUTH ON TUESDAY. LIGHT AND
STEADY RAINFALL WILL ACCELERATE THE MELTING OF ICE AND SLEET
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
- DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING EACH
MORNING.
- DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1014MB LOW OVER OKLAHOMA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STREWN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. REGIONAL
AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS SHOW MAINLY LIGHT TO CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH WITH 5 TO 8 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. GOES EAST
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF CIRRUS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW TAKES AN EAST-NORTHEASTLY TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING
AND SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEARLY THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH WILL SEE
RAINFALL, WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL
WILL PROMOTE THE MELTING OF RESIDUAL SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM NEARLY 9 DAYS AGO.
A SHOT OF POLAR AIR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
1034MB HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EACH MORNING. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
COLDEST WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. NAEFS ESAT TABLES SHOW
THAT 90TH PERCENTILE 500MB HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE THROUGH SUNRISE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. LLWS OF 40KTS AND SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z AND IMPACT ALL TERMINALS. AS THIS ACTIVITY
PUSHES EAST, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CIGS
DEVELOPING. PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 00Z WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING THEREAFTER.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 45 PERCENT, AND
WET FUELS. WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
40. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...ANS
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