960
FXUS64 KMEG 041139
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
639 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR EARLY IN THE WEEK.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
OVER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK; PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION AND HEED
LOCAL BURN BANS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
MIDWEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIALLY RETURNING LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED OVER SOUTH/SOUTH-CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. TRAPPED
BETWEEN THE AIR MASSES, A THICK STRATUS DECK WILL PROHIBIT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MORNING LOWS PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 60S.
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTHEAST IN THE
COMING HOURS THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD OF IT RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY AFTER SUNRISE WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. CLEARING OF SKIES WILL
BE GRADUAL AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT.
BY MONDAY, COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE UNDER A CONTINENTAL AIR
MASS. NBM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TYPICALLY UNDERCUTS MIXING AND MAX
HEATING IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES NUDGING CLOSER TO
THE 75TH PERCENTILE WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS DRY AIR DOMINATES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE BIAS ON
TEMPERATURES IS A BIT CONCERNING WITH PROJECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S AND 50S RESULTING IN RH VALUES LESS THAN 30%.THESE RH VALUES
COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. BE
SURE TO USE CAUTION WHEN BURNING AND HEED ANY LOCAL BURN BANS.
BY MIDWEEK, SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL EMERGE AND INCH TEMPERATURES
UPWARDS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER DAILY AND SOME AREAS HAVE LOW PROBABILITIES
(AROUND 20%) OF REACHING 90 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BOTH FAVOR A WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEKEND, BUT DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
AN IFR DECK EXTENDS FROM NEAR I-40 SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH MS THIS
MORNING. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WORKING SOUTH WILL ERODE THIS DECK
THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING AREAWIDE BY MID MORNING AT
MEM AND MKL AND AROUND NOON OR A LITTLE LATER AT TUP. EXPECT
STEADY N/NNE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 7-10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WILL USHER IN A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. BEHIND
THE FRONT, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
NEAR 30 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH A MEDIUM-TO-HIGH PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS AND LOW FIRE WEATHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...SJM
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