703
FXUS64 KMEG 170445
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING 105 DEGREE HEAT INDICES BY MONDAY.
- A PATTERN CHANGE IS INDICATED ON LONG RANGE GUIDANCE, PRODUCING
VARIABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO
AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH
THE LOW 90S AREAWIDE.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE DEFINED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
AND THE EMERGENCE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS REGIME WILL PLACE THE MID-SOUTH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, KEEPING THE AREA PRONE TO SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, BUT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S, BUT
HIGHER READINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI,
WHERE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE MORE PROMINENT SYNOPTIC
LEVEL PLAYER. A HEAT ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCY MANIFESTS NEXT WEEK, COMPLICATING
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE WARMEST DAY
WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY, WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S.
HOWEVER, FORECASTS DIVERGE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MID-SOUTH. BOTH THE GEFS AND GEPS FAVOR A STRONGER
FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO A MORE WESTERLY POSITION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ON THE CONTRARY, THE ENS IS MUCH MORE
BULLISH IN THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE,
RESULTING IN MINIMAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE POST FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
NBM IS PICKING UP ON THESE MODEL DISCREPANCIES, RESULTING IN A
8 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONGST THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILES. FOR NOW, EXPECT NEXT WEEK TO BE HOT AND HUMID WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.
ANS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING NORTH OF MKL TO NEAR
JBR. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED BUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT
REMAINS POSSIBLE, AIDED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF MEM. TS CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW, HOWEVER, AND BASES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE VFR THRESHOLD.
FRIDAY WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF THURSDAY WITH RESPECT TO TSRA
COVERAGE. UNLIKE THURSDAY, COVERAGE WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO FAVOR
ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL OR REGION OF THE MIDSOUTH. AS OF
DISCUSSION TIME, THURSDAY AFTERNOON TS PROBABILITIES REMAIN BELOW
THE PROB30 THRESHOLD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS AMPLE MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND WINDS STAY LIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
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