212
FXUS64 KMEG 112347 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
647 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY,
WITH SOME RELIEF FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES. A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER, BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
MAINTAINING RISKS FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY IN THE LOW 90S AS OF NOON TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. NBM
AND SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE BOTH SHOW THAT HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
ECLIPSE THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN THESE LOCATIONS. PORTIONS OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THEIR
HEAT INDICES PEAK ABOVE 105 F THIS AFTERNOON, PROMPTING A HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM CDT TONIGHT.
ALONGSIDE THE SUFFOCATING HEAT AND HUMIDITY, AN UPPER TROUGH IS
VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. THE 12Z LZK RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES (> 7.5 C/KM) BETWEEN 700 MB - 500 MB
AND THAT INSTABILITY WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, CAMS (WOFS/HRRR/REFS) SHOW THAT MLCAPE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 2000 - 3500 J/KG. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH, GRADUAL STORM
INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO WEST TENNESSEE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
BE OUT OF THE WEST BETWEEN 20 - 30 KNOTS MEANING THAT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, WITH DCAPE VALUES UP TO
1000 J/KG AND STORM OUTFLOWS LIKELY TO ORIENT PARALLEL TO THE
SHEAR VECTORS, CONVECTION WILL BE PRIMARILY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT.
SOME NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED PORTIONS OF THE LINE TODAY MAY HAVE A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO THE BULK SHEAR AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. AS SUCH, SPC HAS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5)
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED TO THE OUTFLOW AND WILL TRAVERSE MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST AS THESE STORMS DEVELOP
TODAY. CONVECTION WILL HAVE 2.00" PWATS TO TAP INTO, CREATING
HIGH RAINFALL RATES. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED BOTH RIVERINE AND AREAL FLOODING IN THE PAST FEW DAYS
OWING TO HEAVY RAINS LAST WEEK. WITH SATURATED SOILS AND ELEVATED
RIVER STAGES, IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR.
ADDITIONALLY, IF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW REMAINS SLOW ENOUGH,
EASTWARD STORM MOTIONS WILL PROMOTE TRAINING ALONG THE OUTFLOW,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
LUCKILY, HREF/NBM LPMM OUTPUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO PLACE ANY OF
THESE CORRIDORS THROUGH THE REGION, BUT DOES HAVE POCKETS OF
HIGHER QPF ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY WHILE GRADUALLY
TRACKING SOUTH TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL ACT AS A
MAKESHIFT COLD FRONT IN THE ABSENCE OF BROADER SYNOPTIC FEATURES,
COOLING THE REGION OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED
TO BELOW 90 F ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION, BUT EXPECT MUGGY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS DEWPOINTS STAY IN THE 70S. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LAPSE RATES HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ALONG THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EXPECT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
A SIMILAR FORECAST TO SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGHING STALLS OVER THE MID-SOUTH. DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY BEFORE UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL OCCUR IN SUCH A HUMID AIR
MASS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER TO THAT OF THIS WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH A
WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SHORT TERM CONCERN WAS A TSRA CLUSTER 20 WSW OF MEM AT 2345Z.
ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST BY 02Z, TUP REMAINS THE
PRIMARY TERMINAL TO BE AFFECTED BY TSRA THIS EVENING.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY AFTER DAYBREAK, UNTIL THE MOIST
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN
COMFORTABLY ABOVE 40 PERCENT. DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTAINING
FAVORABLE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS. GIVEN THE LACK OF DRY, WINDY
CONDITIONS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ009.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ048-049-058.
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ007-010-011-020.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-054-055.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB
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