573
FXUS64 KMEG 192330 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
630 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
MID-SOUTH ON TUESDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS, LOW
HUMIDITY, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
- THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
- A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY,
WITH A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID, UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE MAJORITY OF THE
INTERIOR CONUS. A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH ANOTHER FRONT DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
24 HOURS AGO, BUT HUMIDITY IS MARKEDLY LOWER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY, DUE TO THE
ORIGIN OF THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS
WEEK AS BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WINDS, TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
AND DRY VEGETATION WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH. THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT AT LEAST A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A DEEPENING
TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE PAC NW ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EARLY FRIDAY AND YIELD LOW TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A
30 TO 50% CHANCE OF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF SBCAPE > 500 J/KG,
SURFACE CIN < -25 J/KG, AND 0-500MB BULK WIND SHEAR > 30 KNOTS
SETTING UP ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE LESS EXCITED ABOUT STRONG WINDS ALOFT, SUGGESTING A
MUCH LOWER THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. NONETHELESS, THERE IS
ENOUGH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODEL RUNS FOR SPC TO INCLUDE THE
MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH IN A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND, SUGGESTING A
WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
AC3
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS. A
FULL DAY OF APRIL SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITY HAS LIKELY DRIED THE
GROUND SUFFICIENTLY TO MITIGATE OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 25-30% EACH DAY. RECENT
WETTING RAINS WILL LIKELY NEGATE THE NEED FOR A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, INCREASING 20FT WINDS
AND DEAD FUEL MOISTURE NEAR 10 PERCENT WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE A
NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ON TUESDAY. INCREASED DEWPOINTS
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, DECREASING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB
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