929
FXUS64 KMEG 261728
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- DANGEROUS, OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES EACH DAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST
105 DEGREES IF NOT EXCEED 110 DEGREES. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
AND HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY.
- A SLIGHT (2/5) TO MARGINAL (1/5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
- LOWER HUMIDITY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK,
PROVIDING SOME RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAS RETURNED TO THE MID-SOUTH WITH
MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY REPORTING HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO
THE AFTERNOON, SO EXERCISE CAUTION IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE FOR
PROLONGED PERIODS AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WAS EXPANDED
SLIGHTLY IN PORTIONS OF WEST TN. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAT TODAY, ALL
EYES WILL TURN NORTH AS A MCV WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. CAM GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED
LARGELY SPREAD WITH THIS EVENT, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS DOES
KEEP THE STRONGEST STORMS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AS THE SYSTEM
SURGES TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, IF THE COMPLEX WERE TO PUSH INTO
OUR AREA OR DEVELOP FURTHER WEST, MOST GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A
FAIRLY ROBUST ENVIRONMENT WITH WELL OVER 3,500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND
FAIRLY HEALTHY LAPSE RATES. A LIMITING FACTOR INTO THE LATE
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE CIN AND DEVELOPING SURFACE
INVERSION, WHICH WOULD AGAIN SUGGEST THAT THE MCV SHOULD BE
DECAYING AS IT REACHES OUR AREA. NONETHELESS, DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IF THE
COMPLEX PUSHES THROUGH. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW, BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANY LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE
OUT BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING AND AN EVEN
WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY REACH 100 DEGREES ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED, BUT
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES IF NECESSARY.
BY WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASING
THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS SUCH, SOME
HEAT PRODUCTS MAY STILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE DELTA REGIONS BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES, BUT MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL LIKELY FALL
BACK TO CLOSER TO SUMMER-TIME NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S. THIS UPPER-LEVEL, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH AND AID IN
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING SURFACE
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR MKL AND TUP LATE
TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS MINRH
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 40% AND 20FT WINDS STAY BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ001-007-008-
010>012-020.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ002>006-009-013>017-
021>024.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ001>004-
019>021-048>052-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ022-053>055-090>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JDS
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