276
FXUS64 KMEG 212313
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
613 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. OBEY ANY LOCAL BURN BANS AND PROPERLY
DISPOSE OF CIGARETTES AND MATCHES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
THE 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF LZK DEPICTS A STOUT DRY LEVEL BETWEEN 850-
500MB. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND LOWER DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE EXPECTED DROP OF RH VALUES WITH
10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE FORECASTS AROUND 10%, A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM.
WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, EXPECT STAGNANT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ON HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL BE MONITORING
THE TROUGH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLOCK AND ITS EVOLUTION FOR
NEXT WEEK. THE LREF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT TOO KEEN ON
IMPACTS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE AND THE ENERGY HEADING TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME OF
THE LONGER RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FOLLOWING CLOSELY
BEHIND THE ENSEMBLES. IN THE MEANTIME, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO
PERSIST.
DNM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR AND LIGHT NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, UNDER A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
LOW SURFACE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30% ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. 10-HOUR FUELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR AROUND 10 PERCENT FUEL MOISTURE.
LIGHT 20-FOOT WINDS, LIKELY PEAKING AT ONLY 10 MPH THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON, WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD,
LIKELY NECESSITATING ADDITIONAL RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS
THROUGH THIS WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...SJM
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