381
FXUS64 KMEG 251732
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1232 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
7 DAYS, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
OF 12Z THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, KEEPING US IN THIS ACTIVE WET
PATTERN. THERE'S A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP ON RADAR SURGING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MEANDERING NORTHWARD ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH, ENCOURAGING A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IN CONJUNCTION WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS SUPPORTED AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
HREF DEPICTS A 30-50% CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES < 4 MILES, WHICH IS
A GOOD THRESHOLD FOR PATCHY FOG. MOVING INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH SPORADIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE
SURFACE PATTERN LOOKS VERY MESSY WITH SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, LEADING TO A VERY SUMMER-LIKE CONVECTIVE
REGIME OF SINGLE CELLED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK GIVEN THE LACK OF
SHEAR. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL PEAK DURING AFTERNOON HEATING
BETWEEN 12PM AND 8PM EACH DAY. INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HELP OF PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES, BUT
THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST SUGGESTS WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS WET
PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LONGWAVE
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, ALLOWING ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO PROMOTE DAILY RAIN CHANCES ABOVE 60% THROUGH SATURDAY.
LREF DEPICTS A MODIFIED OMEGA BLOCK EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS NEXT WEEK, CURBING POPS A BIT. TEMPERATURES STAY VERY
CONSISTENTLY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
MID-SOUTH TAFS WILL FOLLOW A NEAR-PERSISTENCE PATTERN THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROPICAL-LIKE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR AVIATION WILL REMAIN LOW CIGS, WHICH WILL
BE MOST COMMON FROM PRE-DAWN TO MID-MORNING. THERE ALSO REMAINS A
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VIS OVERNIGHT, PRIOR TO LOW CIG FORMATION.
TSRA POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED TO TUP, ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHWARD SURGE OF CONVECTION FROM EAST CENTRAL MS THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT TS
POTENTIAL BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS IN THE TAFS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A WET AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...PWB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page