276  
FXUS64 KMEG 221657  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1157 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 631 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021/  
 
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NICE FALL  
DAY FOR THE REGION AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR SETTLES IN. THIS COOL  
AND DRIER REGIME WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED  
TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
THIS WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE  
NEXT FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NORTH OF I-40...NO A REAL BIG DEAL BUT ENOUGH  
TO MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST.  
 
THEN WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE  
NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE IS  
STARTING TO INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH THIS FIRST  
SYSTEM THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO MUCH SO THAT THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. THE  
ENHANCED PORTION OF THIS RISK IS FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF  
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING THESE STORMS  
EXIST. A SLIGHT RISK ENCOMPASSES THE AREA JUST EAST OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THIS LOOKS TO  
BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS IS  
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COMING IN OVERNIGHT WHERE THE  
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS GOOD. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THAT REGARD  
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE KINEMATICS WILL  
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND PERHAPS  
ROTATING STORMS AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER  
POINT IS THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE  
AREA AND THAT WILL ALSO LEND TO DAMPEN THE SEVERE THREAT HERE  
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS THE FRONT SWEEPS IN THE INGREDIENTS MAY  
NOT ALL LINE UP PERFECTLY FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT FOR OUR  
AREA. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A THIS WILL START AS  
SUPERCELLS AND BROKEN LINES ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND  
MISSOURI...AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH IT  
WILL EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS RATHER THAN  
THE CELLULAR STRUCTURES.  
 
BEHIND THIS FRONT, WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE  
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE POTENT AS WELL BUT  
THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL AS THE INSTABILITY.  
GUIDANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS NOTION. WE  
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.  
EXPECT HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOOK FOR A  
COOL DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK AS WE DRY OUT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
18Z TAFS  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. LIGHT  
NORTH WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS  
AND REMAIN 5 KNOTS OR LESS.  
 
30  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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