536  
FXUS64 KMEG 140452  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1152 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
AVIATION UPDATE BELOW  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 830 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020/  
 
UPDATE...  
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS  
TO BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ARE STILL AROUND THE FORECAST AREA AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE  
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.  
NOW WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE EARLY  
MORNING HOURS FOR WEDNESDAY. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN  
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS  
AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. WE WILL HAVE  
TO WATCH TO SEE IF THIS PANS OUT IF IT DOES WE MAY HAVE TO  
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF  
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SOUTH OF TUNICA. WE WILL KEEP A WATCH ON  
THIS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020/  
 
UPDATE...  
AVIATION UPDATE BELOW  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
VERY TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON.  
AREAS THAT WERE CLOUDY WITH RAIN THIS MORNING ARE NOW CLEAR,  
WHILE MANY AREAS THAT WERE CLEAR THIS MORNING ARE NOW EXPERIENCING  
RAINY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. ULTIMATELY DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES  
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. HIGH  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES, OR 90 PERCENT ABOVE  
NORMAL FOR MID AUGUST ARE RESULTING IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.  
LUCKILY THE STORMS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER,  
STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY RESULTING IN 1.71 INCHES OF  
ACCUMULATION AT NWS MEMPHIS.  
 
HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL STICK AROUND TOMORROW, SO EXPECT AREAS  
OF HEAVY RAIN AGAIN BENEATH A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK MIDLEVEL  
TROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE THE MOST ACTIVITY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND  
NORTH MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH EAST ARKANSAS AND THE  
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL COULD SEE SOME STORMS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY  
EARLIER IN THE DAY.  
 
THE MIDLEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER  
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND MOISTURE  
LEVELS WILL BEGIN THE DECREASE. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE  
MIDSOUTH SUNDAY, BUT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED  
SO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES  
OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE LOWER THAN TODAY AND FRIDAY. NORTHWEST  
TO NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE MIDSOUTH NEXT WEEK  
AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
SEASONABLY COOL ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE  
80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. DEW POINTS MAY DROP INTO THE 50S. WE MAY  
EVEN SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR MIDWEEK RAIN CHANCES LOOK  
LOW MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
30  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF  
 
AS WE APPROACH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE  
EXPECTED. THIS COULD RESULT IN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD  
RESULT IN SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
0-7KTS AND WILL SHIFT TO THE NNE BY END OF TAF CYCLE.  
 
SMW  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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