010
FXUS64 KMEG 192336
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. OBEY ANY LOCAL BURN BANS AND PROPERLY
DISPOSE OF CIGARETTES AND MATCHES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL, DRY DAY IS ON DISPLAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SPANNING THE 60S. RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO DIP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RISE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MANY TODAY. WITH THE
GENERALLY LOW RH VALUES AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION RECENTLY,
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL ARISE ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS SUCH, BE SURE
TO OBEY ALL LOCAL BURN BANS AND OUTDOOR BURNING / ACTIVITIES THAT
INVOLVE OPEN SPARKS OR FLAMES ARE DISCOURAGED.
AS FAR AS THE REST OF THE FORECAST, VERY LITTLE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO
OUR WEST. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL AID TO KEEP THE MID-SOUTH DRY
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE CAMPING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS SOME SMALL VARIABILITY IN LREF GUIDANCE THAT
COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE OF A FEW DEGREES WITH OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL REGARDLESS. FOR THOSE CURIOUS ABOUT THE END
OF THE MONTH, THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC DOES HAVE
THE MID-SOUTH WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED. SO, IT
APPEARS ANY TRUE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT E/NE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
DAILY, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY FUELS,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 9% AND 11%. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS LIKELY NEEDED FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS WEEK. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
SINCE 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...SJM
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