441
FXUS64 KMEG 181729
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1229 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
- LIGHT, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BRING NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
MORNING OBSERVATIONS DISPLAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER
THE REGION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. SUBTLE
DPVA HAS PRODUCED SOME RAIN SHOWERS, BUT HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS,
LIKELY UP TO 850 MB, HAS PREVENTED MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE TO OUR EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEIGHT RISES REMOVING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND MOSTLY SUNNY, MILD
WEATHER THIS EVENING.
THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A LARGE, 590+ DM 500 MB
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NORTHWESTERLIES WILL THEREFORE PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SYNOPTIC-
SCALE FLOW. MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW AS THE SURFACE FRONT
FROM LAST WEEKEND HAS SCOURED HIGHER DEWPOINTS OFF THE GULF.
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE
SLOW AS PWATS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 1", ONLY MARGINALLY
INCREASING ABOVE THIS THRESHOLD ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVES. THEREFORE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY LOW (< 10%) CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN AREAS OF WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF ANY SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND FLATTEN OUT THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, PUSHING THE POLAR STREAM NORTH OF THE REGION AND
ATTAINING A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. THE REMAINING RIDGING WILL
THEN NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ABOVE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW, INCREASING TEMPERATURES DRASTICALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FRIDAY, WHICH WILL PERSIST SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL WARMING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD
TIE OR EVEN BREAK HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. FOR INSTANCE,
MEMPHIS, WHOSE RECORD HIGH IS 83 ON SUNDAY, HAS A 80% - 90%
CHANCE OF A HIGH TEMPERATURE ABOVE THIS VALUE PER 13Z NBM DATA.
ZOOMING OUT WITH THIS BENCHMARK, AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA HAVE A 70% - 90% CHANCE OF RISING ABOVE 83,
POTENTIALLY BREAKING OTHER HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS THROUGHOUT
THE REGION.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MIDWEST SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY, MOVING EAST WITH TIME AND
PULLING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH COULD BRING A FEW
SPRINKLES, BUT LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCES (20%+) OUT OF THE FORECAST. BEHIND THE FRONT,
ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO BRING BACK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH NORTHWESTERLIES RETURNING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THEREFORE,
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
NEXT WEEK ARE LOW (< 20%).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET, DECREASING
TO 4-8 KTS OVERNIGHT. KMEM WILL HOVER AROUND THE 8 KT RUNWAY
THRESHOLD, BUT WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT PUSH.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER BATCH AROUND 12 KFT MOVE IN THURSDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE 30%
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30%. TWENTY-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AT 10-15 MPH THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, DECREASING IN SPEED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
RAISE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE 30% THURSDAY
WITH MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 40% AND 50% THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...MJ
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