814
FXUS64 KMEG 101135
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
635 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH SEVERE STORM
CHANCES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY
AND TRANSFORM INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, PERSISTENT WAA WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE MID-SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS SURGING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. INSTABILITY
WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AMPLE SHEAR WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE DEPICTS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHEAST AR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
/ EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT THIS TIME, THOUGH LACKING KINEMATICS WILL LIMIT THIS
POTENTIAL. SHOULD A SEVERE STORM FORM, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
WILL HINDER DESTABILIZATION OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH.
AS SUCH, A HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING CAPE VALUES ABOVE 500 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SUITE OF CAMS IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON
THIS TREND, WITH CONSENSUS BEING A STRENGTHENING LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE SUNSET. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH THIS LINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXIT THE MID-SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WARMING TREND WILL KICK OFF ON FRIDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S BY SATURDAY. THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY, THOUGH LONG RANGE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A 35% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO FREEZING MONDAY MORNING.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING WINDOWS OF CONVECTION IN THE LATE TUESDAY
EVENING PERIOD ARE VERY POORLY HANDLED BY THE CAMS; SOLUTIONS ARE
STARKLY DIFFERENT FROM ONE MODEL TO ANOTHER AND HAVE HAD VERY
LITTLE TEMPORAL CONSISTENCY. OPTED TO GO WITH A HAPPY MEDIUM FOR
EACH PROB30 IN TIMING WINDOWS. TUP IS THE ONE SITE THAT WILL MOST
LIKELY NOT BE IMPACTED BY ANY PRECIP DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BEING DISPLACED PRETTY FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. CEILINGS ARE
CURRENTLY HOVERING AT MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS AND SHOULD BEGIN
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN STEADILY FROM
THE S/SW AROUND 10 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
OVERNIGHT, A LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS TO 40-
45 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH THE FROPA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL OCCUR EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FUEL MOISTURE AND MAINTAIN ELEVATED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CAD
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