263
FXUS64 KMEG 012341
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
641 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH HEAT HEADLINES
PROBABLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
AS OF 11 AM, A COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE REGION WITH
ABERDEEN, MS STILL PREVAILING A SOUTHERLY WIND AND 80 DEGREE
DEWPOINT. ELSEWHERE, STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WITH BRISK NORTHERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT WARM TOO FAR FROM THESE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES DUE TO STRONG MIXING AND POST FRONTAL STRATUS
CONTINUING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW. NORTH MISSISSIPPI MAY SQUEAK
OUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 DEGREES, BUT THE FRONT IS MOVING VERY
QUICKLY AND SHOULD CLEAR THE MID-SOUTH BY 1 PM.
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, UNSEASONABLY COOL AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. A NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 DEGREES, WHICH
CURRENTLY IS NOT A FORECASTED HIGH UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. NBM
DOES HAVE A COOL BIAS WITH VERY DRY AIRMASSES, BUT WITH DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE 60S, IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ACCUMULATION VALUES. PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH, BUT THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PROHIBIT
DOWNPOURS.
AFTER TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EMERGE NEAR THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST. A FEW SHORTWAVES MAY SPEW
OUT AHEAD, WITH LOW END DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. QPF IS VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE INTENSITY AND
LONGEVITY OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE EMBEDDED WAVES. THE RIDGE WILL HEAT
THINGS BACK UP GRADUALLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY FRIDAY, MEDIUM CHANCE PROBABILITIES RETURN TO THE
DELTA REGION FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES MEETING OR EXCEEDING 105F
(HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA). THOSE PROBABILITIES BEGIN TO EXPAND
GEOGRAPHICALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT
WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN, ENJOY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES!
DNM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS
TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT JBR/MEM/TUP AND IFR CONDITIONS AT
MKL. FOG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT
MKL. LOWERED CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. A FEW ROUNDS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE TN RIVER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WARRANTING A VCSH AT MKL/TUP. OUTSIDE OF GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS PERIOD DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL AND LIGHT 20 FT WINDS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AEH
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