076
FXUS64 KMEG 221622
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1122 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING.
- A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A LOW
TORNADO THREAT, WILL EMERGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
- CONDITIONS TREND COOLER AND QUIETER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO HOT AND HUMID WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AS OF 11:15 AM. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
AND TRAINING STORMS HAVE LED TO SEVERAL FLASH FLOODS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. GRADUAL CLEARING WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE RAIN SHIELD AS A
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS ARKANSAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THE
AIRMASS IS MOSTLY UNTOUCHED AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS
ANTICIPATED. REMNANTS FROM THE COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT RESIDE FROM
THIS MORNING ACTIVITY WILL HELP CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FUELED BY GREATER THAN
2000 J/KG OF CAPE, BUT RELATIVELY MODEST SHEAR OF 25 KTS. A FEW
AREAS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, EAST OF OXFORD, DO
HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. THESE PARAMETERS RAISE
CONCERNS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. HELICITY
VALUES ON DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS ARE LESS THAN 200 M^2/S^2, EVEN
IN THE BETTER SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS, BUT IF A SUPERCELL DOES
DEVELOP AND RIDE RIGHT ALONG THE MCV TRACK, A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH AS
LATE AS 10 PM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, WHICH IS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JUNE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PROJECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AIMING ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE ARE LOW END PROBABILITIES (LESS THAN 30%) OF
SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL HISTORY OF THESE MCVS, A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS
WARRANTED FOR WEDNESDAY.
A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH ON THURSDAY AND BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND 90S INTO LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. LONG TERM
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A PATTERN SHIFT AWAY FROM WET AND
UNSETTLED TO HOT AND HUMID AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE END OF JUNE.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
A MATURE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL
BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO
TAF SITES INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTS WERE ADJUSTED TO ALIGN
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
MORNING, WHILE MAINTAINING LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
AT TUP AND MKL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH MINRH VALUES
OVER 40%, WILL NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ026>028-035-036-
048-049.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ001>003-007-008.
TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ048>050-088>090.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CJC
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