101
FXUS64 KMEG 011804
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
104 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AREA WIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, WEST
TENNESSEE, AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.
- A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW IN
PLACE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES STILL DEPICT A STRONG, 594+ DM 500 MB
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE, A VERY MOIST,
TROPICAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SAME REGIONS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. THIS PATTERN HAS ALLOWED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS OF SCORCHING HEAT INDICES, REACHING WELL ABOVE THE TRIPLE
DIGITS. THE SAME WILL BE THE CASE TODAY WITH FORECAST AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 - 110 F ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH.
WITH SUCH HIGH DEWPOINTS, MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
WELL ABOVE 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DISPLAYS A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING TRANSITING THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE IN GA/AL, MOVING WEST. THE RELATIVELY LOWER
HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF THE POWERFUL RIDGE
DOMINATING THE REST OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. WHAT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN, EVEN JUST A FEW HOURS OUT, IS THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN
THIS MORNINGS' CAM RUNS POINT TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT. AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD OVER NORTHERN GA/AL GIVES
SUPPORT TO THIS TREND WITH A FEW ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AS OF 1730Z. THEREFORE, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT AT LEAST 1000 DCAPE AND 10 - 20 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR, MEANING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MICROBURSTS OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT THROUGH
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REGION TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY BRINGING MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE AND TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RISE DRAMATICALLY AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. NBM GUIDANCE IS KEEN ON HEAT INDICES CLIMBING TO AT LEAST
110 F THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER GUIDANCE DOESN'T PAINT AS WARM OF
A PICTURE, BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME NONETHELESS:
OPPRESSIVE, DANGEROUS HEAT IN A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE. SO, AFTER
DELIBERATING WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES THIS MORNING, THE
DECISION WAS MADE TO UPGRADE EASTERN AR, THE MO BOOTHEEL, WEST
TN, AND NORTHWEST MS AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING PIVOTS WEST, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS
TODAY'S STORMS WILL AFFECT TOMORROW'S ENVIRONMENT.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE HEAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALIKE KEEPING
THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUST A TAD COOLER THAN THURSDAY,
BETWEEN 105 - 110 F, THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THEREFORE, THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL BE BACK TO A HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DOESN'T INSPIRE TOO
MUCH OPTIMISM EITHER. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS,
WELL DISPLACED FROM THE MID-SOUTH. THAT BEING SAID, POPS DO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY HELP COOL HEAT INDICES
BELOW 105 F EACH AFTERNOON AND LOWERING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. THE MAJORITY OF THE 12Z CAMS
FAVOR SCATTERED TSRAS LATER TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ORIGINATING IN ALABAMA, MOVING WEST ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH, THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UTILIZED THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA POTENTIAL AT TUP, MKL, AND
MEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL IMPACT THURSDAY'S TSRA
CHANCES. FOR NOW DECIDED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF TSRAS OUT FOR
THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 40%
EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON, INCREASING IN COVERAGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ009-
018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ009-
018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ113-
115.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ113-
115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ001-007-010-011.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ001-
007-010-011.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ001-
007-010-011.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ002>006-008-009-
012>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page