678
FXUS64 KMEG 211151 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
651 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK, AND THEN
TREND GRADUALLY WARMER BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE STORY ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH AS A 590DAM RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. TAKING A LOOK AT 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS, A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, JUST NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD, MO. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING OUR FIRST SHOT AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN ABOUT 10 DAYS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. FORECAST
PWATS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75", NEARING THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, SUPPORTING INCREASED
MOISTURE. HOWEVER, LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES ONLY HAVE AROUND A
20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL MONDAY.
THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF WET MICROBURSTS WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE,
BUT LITTLE TO NO SHEAR. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO MONDAY, WE'RE LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER
NEAR RECORD-BREAKINGLY HOT SEPTEMBER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
90S TO LOWER 100S.
ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, RELIEF FROM 48 DAYS OF 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER
TEMPERATURES IS CLOSE BY AS A COOLER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. WE'RE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S BY TUESDAY AS THE ZONAL FLOW ALSO BEGINS TO PUSH IN
ALOFT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE WITNESSED
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH NOTHING APPRECIABLE IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN. WEDNESDAY LOOKS EVEN MORE PLEASANT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH AS A CUTOFF LOW
DIPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO MOVE IN OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND, KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION GOES PAST TUESDAY, WE'RE LOOKING AT A RELATIVELY
DRY PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
AEH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA NEAR JBR AT DAYBREAK WILL LIFT NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH AR THIS MORNING. TSRA
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NON-ZERO AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY, AS ISOLATED
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPS AFTER 18Z. TS CHANCES REMAIN JUST AT
PROB30 LEVEL FOR TUP, GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A WEAK SURFACE FONT
NEAR PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. ELECTED TO FORGO PROB30 FOR MEM, AS
FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING SE OF THE
TERMINAL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A ESE MOVEMENT OF SHRA/TSRA
THEREAFTER.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATE EVENING
INBOUND PUSH AT MEM. THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE FOR
A LOW MVFR OR PERHAPS HIGH IFR CIG TOWARD 12Z AT ALL MID-SOUTH TAF
SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
ANOTHER ANOMALOUSLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE, WETTING RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED. 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER TUESDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
AMIDST RELATIVELY DRY SOILS. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page