624
FXUS64 KMEG 130441
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1141 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- COOLER AND CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH CONTINUE, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
- THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK, MAINTAINING A
LOCALIZED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER BY LATE WEEK AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DECREASE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED HEADLINES.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXIST AT 11 PM. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE
ONGOING, BUT WILL END SOON, AS A SURFACE LOW ROTATES AROUND THE
BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH.THE ATTENDANT LOW HAS STRETCHED A
COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH, WHICH HAS KEPT MOST OF
THE DEEPER CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CWA BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL EFFICIENTLY OVERNIGHT, AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS GO LIGHT,
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS COULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IF CROSS-
OVER TEMPERATURES ARE MET, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG VS LOW STRATUS. IF LOW STRATUS
DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS INTO THE DAYTIME TO ERODE,
WHICH WOULD PROHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO QUICKLY IN THE
MORNING.
A LONGER COOL MORNING WOULD HELP SUPPRESS LAPSE RATES FROM
BECOMING TOO STEEP AND RESULT IN JUST A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS, SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, THAT ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ON
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE. THE BEST
COVERAGE ON TUESDAY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO TREND HIGHER IN SHOWER COVERAGE AS PW
VALUES RISE ABOVE 2". DESPITE COVERAGE AND MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASING MIDWEEK, THE 90TH PERCENTILE QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE AN INCH OR LESS. SOME AREAS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COULD SEE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.5".
THURSDAY WILL BEGIN THE SLOW EMERGENCE OF A PATTERN SHIFT. WHILE
STILL SLIGHTLY INFLUENCED UNDER BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE SE
CONUS, A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL COVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON, GENERALLY NEAR THE TN RIVER VALLEY. BY FRIDAY, THE MID-
SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE
BEST CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDICES RETURNS. A
FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ON THURSDAY,
BUT CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN THE SHORT
TERM, ENJOY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
RETURN.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED ON GOES IR IMAGERY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING. THESE CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
AT TUP, LIMITING RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL. MKL WILL BE LESS
AFFECTED BY THESE CLOUDS, BUT MAY SEE SCATTERED MIDLEVEL CLOUDS -
NOT ENOUGH TO RULE OUT FOG. THE 06Z TAF WILL RETAIN A TEMPO FOR
MVFR VIS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, OTHER
PERHAPS SOME BRIEF POST-SUNRISE MVFR CIGS AT TUP AND MKL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT, PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENSURE FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN WELL-SUPPORTED, MITIGATING WILDFIRE RISK.
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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