236
FXUS64 KMEG 251807
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
107 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
- RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A 20-40% CHANCE OF WETTING RAINFALL TO
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1008MB LOW OVER EASTERN
KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION. TO THE EAST AND WEST, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN CONUS. ALOFT, A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
500MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. RETURN FLOW HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE
ANOMALOUS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
ON THURSDAY AS READINGS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ECMWF
ESAT SHOWS NEARLY MAXED OUT 500MB AND 200MB WITH 700MB HEIGHTS
NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE.
THE RIDGE WILL DAMPEN LATE THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH ON FRIDAY. WITH LIMITED WATER THROUGH
THE COLUMN, PWATS GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH, NOT MUCH QPF IS
ANTICIPATED. THERE IS ONLY A 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN
(1/10TH OF AN INCH) AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO AREAS
NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, MODIFIED POLAR AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION, EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE AND MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. SPC CURRENTLY HAS
PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY HIGHLIGHTED FOR FIRE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY, BUT THE THREAT APPEARS TO COVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE MID-SOUTH AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
COOL CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EACH DAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
PERSISTENCE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS HOLDING
STEADY IN THE 8-10 KT RANGE AND SOME SCATTERED MIDLEVEL CU.
CURRENT THINKING IS THESE S/SW WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY FURTHER INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS TOMORROW MID
MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND PROMOTE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH
SUNSET THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW AS HIGHER MOISTURE AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN AROUND 35-45%. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY, BUT PROBABILITIES
FOR WETTING RAIN REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 40% AND ARE CONFINED TO
AREAS NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. LOW HUMIDITY AND MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CAD
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