020
FXUS64 KMEG 202328
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
528 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
- AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION, LASTING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS.
- LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A
QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH OF RAIN ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW (LESS THAN 20%) CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
CALM WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS UPPER
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA KEEPS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THIS FLOW, CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA, WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
AND BRING A COLD-FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS, SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME MODELS HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS, ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, HREF ENSEMBLE SOUNDING PLUMES SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT MAJORITY OF MEMBERS KEEP SFC - 850 MB WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, ELIMINATING SERIOUS CONCERNS FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH RAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH ONLY .25" - .50" OF RAIN ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
REGION AT MOST.
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WEDNESDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO
END BY SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN SHORTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MILD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRUGGLE TO BUDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT, MUCH STRONGER THAN THE ONE WEDNESDAY, WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION, QUICKLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BY MID-AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT, A STRONG, 1045+ MB HIGH WILL SEEP ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN
CONUS, EFFECTIVELY LOCKING IN THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. CONTINUED
CAA FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DECREASE TEMPERATURES FURTHER
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 10S AND 20S
ALONGSIDE WIND CHILLS IN THE 10S AND SINGLE DIGITS. MOISTURE DEPTH
WILL BE LACKING, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
ARCTIC NATURE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
WHILE THE LATTER-WEEK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE COUNTRY, A LOBE OF
ENERGY WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COASTLINE, CREATING A
MOSTLY-CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNSTREAM ADVECTION OF UPPER MOISTURE OVER MEXICO
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE WILL TIME
OPTIMALLY TO BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE COLD FRONT ALOFT FRIDAY.
THEREFORE, MOST MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE BEGIN ISENTROPICALLY
LIFTING THIS MOISTURE AND PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ONLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES FRIDAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN
INCREASINGLY DEEP COLD LAYER AT THE SURFACE WITH REMNANT ABOVE-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 850 MB - 700 MB. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT,
ALL MODES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED, INCLUDING SNOW,
ICE, AND SLEET.
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
BEGIN TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PULL IT EAST. UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF BOTH UPPER HEIGHTS AND WIND WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF NORTH INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAD STRUGGLED
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN PAST RUNS, BUT ENSEMBLES
AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALIKE NOW HAVE A DISTINCT AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WILL ONLY SERVE TO INCREASE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY WITH AN EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD OCCUPYING THE ENTIRE REGION, SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
WINTER STORM.
THE DETAILS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO BETTER VIEW WITH RESPECT TO
THE IMPACTS THAT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. YESTERDAY, THE
GFS AND ECMWF DIFFERED SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF
QPF ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER, THESE ISSUES HAVE BEEN RECTIFIED
OVERNIGHT WITH BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREEING THAT A SWATH OF
6+ INCHES OF SNOW IS PROBABLE ALONG I-40 ALONGSIDE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SLEET OR ICE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS THAT ARE YET TO BE ANSWERED ARE: 1) WHERE WILL THE HEAVIEST
AXIS OF SNOWFALL RESIDE AND 2) WILL SLEET BE FAVORED OVER FREEZING
RAIN OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. REGARDING SNOWFALL, NBM AND LREF HAVE
INCREASED THEIR SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-40, FOR 3"+ (50%- 70%) AND 6"+ (30%-50%). SOUTH OF THE SNOWFALL
AXIS, BOTH AFOREMENTIONED MODELS HAVE A 30% - 50% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST A QUARTER-INCH OF ICE. AS LISTED ABOVE, ICE COULD VERY WELL
BECOME A LARGE AREA OF SLEET AND WILL DEPEND ON THE DEPTH OF THE
COLD LAYER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT MANAGES TO
MAKE IT BEFORE THE UPPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. MODELS ARE SPLIT DOWN
THE MIDDLE STILL BETWEEN THE TWO, BUT ONE THING CAN BE FOR SURE:
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM BOTH REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER IMPACTS ARE RELATED TO ROAD (SLEET) OR POWER (ICE)
INFRASTRUCTURE.
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL LESSEN INTO SUNDAY WITH MOST GUIDANCE
KICKING ANY PRECIPITATION OUT BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY
AT LEAST AND WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THEREFORE,
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO MELT AND RECOVERY EFFORTS
MAY BE HINDERED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LUCKILY, THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME, REGARDLESS OF THE COLD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
IMPACTFUL AVIATION WEATHER WILL EMERGE THIS EVENING AS LLWS
DEVELOPS AT FL020 AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SCATTERED SHRA WILL DEVELOP AROUND 10Z IN THE AIRSPACE, ORIENTED
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LLWS WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY WITH
SHOWERS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
IFR/LIFR CIGS AT ALL SITES AFTER 18Z. AS SUCH, INTRODUCED LOWER
CLOUD GROUPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
DRY, ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT, ALTHOUGH 20 FT
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MID-
SOUTH TONIGHT AND BRING WETTING RAINS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING FRIDAY THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...ANS
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