938
FXUS64 KMEG 241712
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1212 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PRECISE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS SET
UP, A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT COULD EXIST EACH AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.
- THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE SUMMERTIME
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
A RELATIVELY "COOL" AND PLEASANT LATE JUNE DAY IS ON DISPLAY
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WE SIT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER, THIS DRY SPELL IS EXPECTED TO COME TO
AN END, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
AMIDST A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND STATIONARY FRONT. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MAY BE IN PLACE HEADING INTO LATE EVENING AND THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WITH UPWARDS OF 1750 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND PWATS OF AROUND 2.1",
NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER,
SOME LIMITING FACTORS WILL EXIST: EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND
25 KTS AND LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0 C/KM.
IF A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAN FIND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR UPSCALE
GROWTH, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PERHAPS A GREATER CONCERN
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT AS MANY AREAS,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, HAVE SATURATED SOILS DUE TO
PREVIOUS RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
MOVING INTO TOMORROW, THE PRESENT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE ZONAL AS SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE PRESENT BOTH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A FEW VERY SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EJECT OVER THE
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY STATELINE. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN, INCREASING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TOMORROW. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD CLOSER TO OUR
AREA, INCREASING TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BY
SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FLIRT WITH THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 100 F AS FORECAST DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S BY MONDAY RESULTING IN HEAT
INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 F IN MANY AREAS AND A POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
INDICES IN EXCESS OF 110 F. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE HAS A 80-95%
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH EXCEEDING 95 F EARLY WEEK. HEAT
HEADLINES WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE WARRANTED. HOWEVER, DAILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INHIBIT HEAT
INDICES FROM CREEPING INTO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA
(110+F). BOTTOM LINE, THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE
HOT AS A LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
AEH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE
12Z CAMS ARE STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT, BUT THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS A COMPLEX FORMING OVER SOUTHERN MO AND/OR NORTHERN
AR THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
JBR, BUT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE DISSIPATING
STAGE BY THE TIME IT REACHES MEM DUE TO DIMINISHING INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR.
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY DUE TO SURFACE HEATING. LOCATION WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHT'S
CONVECTION AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
RECENT WETTING RAINS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 40%
AND DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...SJM
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