489
FXUS64 KMEG 150448
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A LOCALIZED RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 90S. TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, POTENTIALLY REQUIRING
HEAT HEADLINES FOR THE DELTA REGION.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE OVER MISSISSIPPI ON
WEDNESDAY, ENCOURAGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED,
BUT LACKLUSTER KINEMATICS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT AT BAY.
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES, EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH COVERAGE DECREASES
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BY SATURDAY, AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AT THE SAME
TIME, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TRAVEL TOWARDS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN DEVELOPS
THIS WEEKEND, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL VARY. THE NBM DOES APPEAR TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION WITH THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES SETTLED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ON SUNDAY. HEAT
HEADLINES CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN HEAT
INDICES REACHING 105 DEGREES REMAINS LOW.
FURTHER FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES EXIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE MID-
SOUTH REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT WEST
AND A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY
IN THE 90S WITH EACH DAY BRINGING BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
ANS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
00Z ENSEMBLE-BASED GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN UPTICK IN IFR
PROBABILITIES A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS
WAS BORN OUT IN UPSTREAM METARS OVER NORTHEAST MS, WHERE LIFR
CIGS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED AT A FEW STATIONS.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, REGARDING
ONSET TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. TS POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW
FOR THE WEDNESDAY LATE EVENING MEM INBOUND PUSH, AS VFR AND LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES PERSIST.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
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