592
FXUS64 KMEG 030446
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR EARLY
THIS MORNING, FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- THE COLD FRONT MAY LIFT BACK NORTH INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S. THE
REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40.
- FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE
EARLY WEEK WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. TUESDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, TO THE LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY, AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE UPPER JET BRINGS MID AND HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. SINCE THEN, NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS HAVE PREVAILED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO SATURDAY.
WHILE MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, HUMIDITY WILL
LINGER UNTIL A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL COINCIDE
WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY. A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS WILL BRING
NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY, AND COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS. TUESDAY
MORNING WILL SEE THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH, SETTING UP PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS
WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME RIVER
VALLEYS OF WEST TENNESSEE COULD SEE LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIODS, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL EXPAND EASTWARD, DISPLACING WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MIDSOUTH. THE NET RESULT WILL BE DAYTIME
HIGHS WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S (7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS BEGINS TO FADE
WITH RESPECT TO NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
CLOSER TO HOME, THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE GFS AND ECMWF DATA FOR A
WEAK EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST, EXTENDING INTO
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. CONSENSUS ASIDE, CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM BRINGING CONSEQUENTIAL RAINFALL TO THE
MIDSOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
IFR AND LOW MVFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW AND POSSIBLE PATCHY DRIZZLE. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO ABOVE
ALTERNATE FUEL MINIMUMS / HIGH MVFR TO BE SLOW ON SATURDAY, UNDER
EXTENSIVE MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS AND WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS. AREAS OF IFR MAY REFORM LATE SATURDAY EVENING,
PARTICULARLY IF PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LOW AND LIMITED MAINLY TO NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND A STRONGER COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL DROP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. NO
WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...PWB
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