369
FXUS64 KMEG 202331
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. OBEY ANY LOCAL BURN BANS AND PROPERLY
DISPOSE OF CIGARETTES AND MATCHES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SPAN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR OVERALL
FORECAST. A WEAK, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, LEAVING
BEHIND A DRY WEATHER PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
RISING TO THE LOW 80S BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY STILL FEEL
COMFORTABLE, THIS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE END OF OCTOBER AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES GO. FOR OUR
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, LOWS WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION.
GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S,
WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WILL FALL TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
THE ONLY CONCERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE
CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
AS A RESULT. AS SUCH, BE SURE TO OBEY ALL LOCAL BURN BANS.
OUTDOOR BURNING AND ACTIVITIES THAT INVOLVE OPEN SPARKS OR FLAMES
ARE DISCOURAGED. FOR THOSE WONDERING WHEN WE WILL FINALLY BREAK
OUT OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CLEAR
END IN SIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES WANT TO BRING A SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY. THUS, IT LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NO PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LIGHT,
MAINLY NE WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS IN THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. DAILY MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 35%, WITH MANY LOCATIONS
FALLING BELOW 30%, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONALLY, WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
LATELY AND NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST, MINIMUM 10-HOUR DEAD
FUEL MOISTURE CONTENT HAS FALLEN TO AROUND 10%. AS SUCH, A
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS LIKELY NEEDED THROUGH THE
WEEK. LUCKILY, 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...SJM
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