287
FXUS64 KMEG 300536
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1136 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
- LOWS IN THE LOW 20S AND UPPER TEENS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY, INCREASING INTO THE 50S AND 60S
THURSDAY.
- SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY A 15 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS CURRENTLY RESTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS BEHIND A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE THAT HAS SINCE TRAVELED
FROM THE MIDWEST INTO CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO
OUR NORTHWEST, ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT ELEVATED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WINDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. ADVECTION WILL THEN BRING
COOLER AIR IN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS
TUESDAY MORNING. OWING TO GUSTY WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH MID-
MORNING TUESDAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES. THEREFORE, THE DRY, ARCTIC
AIR MASS IS POISED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY ADVECT
WARMER AIR IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S, CLIMBING INTO THE 60S ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE 30S AND 40S THURSDAY.
A SIMILAR UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.
LOWER IN LATITUDE, OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS, WINDS FROM A DECAYING
CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA, WILL OVERSPREAD THE BASE OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS.
BY EARLY FRIDAY, THESE WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-SOUTH WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BRING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES REGARDING
WHERE AND HOW MUCH PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SEE. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE (GFS/ECWMF) HAVE PAINTED A SWATH OF QPF OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPICALLY-
GENERATED PRECIPITATION, WHILE ALSO DISPLAYING A CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION TOTALS
REMAIN LACKLUSTER THANKS TO ISSUES REGARDING THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AND THE DURATION OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES.
FURTHERMORE, LREF PROFILES ONLY SHOW MEAN RH VALUES ABOVE 80% UP
TO 850 MB, DECREASING WITH ALTITUDE. SO, RAIN CHANCES ARE
INCREASING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW .5" UNLESS GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARDS
GREATER DEPTH OF MOISTURE.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND INTO
ALABAMA SATURDAY, DRYING THE REGION OUT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL FILL IN THE SPACE BEHIND IT, BRINGING LOWER
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AREN'T
EXPECTED TO DROP TOO SIGNIFICANTLY AS NBM LOWS ONLY REACH INTO
THE MID TO LOW 30S SUNDAY MORNING. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL
CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 8
TO 10 KTS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST MON DEC 29 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 30 PERCENT AND 40 PERCENT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG 20 FT WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WETTING RAIN CONDITIONS WERE BROUGHT TO THE AREA
LAST NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...ANS
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