634
FXUS64 KMEG 202332
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
632 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL BRING NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND.
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO OUR EAST. A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXITS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL
SLOWLY NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHWESTERLY WAA AT THE SURFACE AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
PROMOTE FURTHER WARMING INTO THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW 80S TODAY, RISING INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THIS RANGE
THIS WEEKEND HAVE A MEDIUM TO HIGH (60% - 80%) CHANCE OF REACHING
85, WHICH WOULD BREAK HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MEMPHIS AND
TUPELO AT A MINIMUM.
A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WITH AN ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWING SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE POOLING AND SOME MID LEVEL COOLING WILL CREATE
SOME INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT
PERSISTENT 850 - 700 MB CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT SUSTAINED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE NBM
WITH POPS BELOW 10%, WHICH IS THE PREFERRED FORECAST RIGHT NOW.
REGARDLESS, THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION THAT
WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN, SOME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
COULD BE APPROACHED IF TEMPERATURES TREND HIGHER THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SIMILARLY TO THIS UPCOMING SUNDAY,
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
KICKING WARMER TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT SMALLER-
SCALE FEATURES ARE NOT AS WELL RESOLVED YET WHICH KEEPS
CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS FROM RAIN/STORMS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND INCREASE
SATURDAY MORNING TO 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PERSISTING BETWEEN 30% AND 40%. THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE DRY AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY, THOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE IN TANDEM AND
HELP TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
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