783
FXUS64 KMEG 091121
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
- DRY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TUESDAY EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE.
- RAIN AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL TOTALS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SWEEP INDICATES SUNDAY'S WARM FRONT
STALLED OUT ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY BORDER. A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CONTRAST, AIDED BY THIS FRONT, IS ON
DISPLAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
30S TO LOW 50S. SURFACE WINDS ARE MOSTLY CALM WITH PREDOMINATELY
CLEAR SKIES AS AN ALTO-STRATUS DECK FILTERS SOUTHEAST. PATCHY FOG
TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT, CALM WINDS, AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S.
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL (30-50%) WILL BE GREATEST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED
OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 10 AM AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE.
MONDAY WILL BE WARM WITH SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BROADENS FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE (10+ DEGREES) NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MIDDAY
TUESDAY, AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE MID-SOUTH, INCREASING OUR MOISTURE PROFILE. BY
TUESDAY EVENING, SHOWER CHANCES (50-70%) WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OUT AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS
FIRST SYSTEM ARE VERY MEAGER WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS UP TO 0.5",
GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI
STATE LINE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL BOTH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S. THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS ALOFT, NORTHWEST FLOW
BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES A BIT
UNSETTLED AS ANOTHER, SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE EJECTS
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST
REGION. SHOWER AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) BEGIN
TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH LIFT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS THERE ISN'T VERY MUCH SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
AND JOINT PROBS HAVE A <10% CHANCE OF >500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND
30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. LATE FRIDAY, ENSEMBLES INDICATE A
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND A FEW PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THE WEST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY SATURDAY. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION INDICATES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK
WITH GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, THE EURO
SOLUTION HAS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH AROUND 2-3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. BOTTOM LINE, THERE REMAINS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT STATIONARY FRONT. ONE THING WE
KNOW FOR SURE, THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WET AS SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY.
AEH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
A WEAK, STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPES ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. A BIT OF
FOG EXISTS AT JBR, ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ONCE THE
BOUNDARY MOVES, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO GREATER THAN
7KTS AFTER 03Z. THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LLWS
WAS NOT NEEDED THIS CYCLE, BUT IS LIKELY TO BE ADDED IN
SUBSEQUENT CYCLES AS THE FRONT DESCENDS.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN AT A LOW AS MINRH VALUES WILL
BE AROUND >=50% OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUR NEXT SHOT AT
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL RETURNS LATE TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...DNM
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