485
FXUS64 KMEG 220458
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1058 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS,
WITH A WARMUP STARTING MIDWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES (60% OR MORE) WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A 1050 MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM.
LOWS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BLAST INTO THE REGION ON
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S,
BUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE 20S AND 30S. SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL FEEL VERY COLD AS BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. MONDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 5 TO
15 DEGREES. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, A PIECE OF THIS ARCTIC HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE DELTA. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO CLIMB, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY. A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL TRACK INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN (50-70%). SEVERE CHANCES ARE MINIMAL
(<5%) DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY'S SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY AND 60S AND 70S ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BY SUNDAY, THOUGH MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE CHANCE OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. EXPECT
WINDS TO START INCREASING IN SPEED SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. BY MID MORNING SUNDAY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NW
WIND GUSTS 25-30 MPH FOR ALL SITES THAT WILL MOST LIKELY LAST
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. ELEVATED WINDS 10 KTS OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE FOLLOWING OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
DRY AND COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURNING TO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE
EACH DAY. HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD
FRONT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CAD
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