660
FXUS64 KMEG 121727
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1127 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
- ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY TO NEAR-NORMAL BY TUESDAY,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. THE
MID-SOUTH, POSITIONED BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES, WILL REMAIN IN A
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER REGIME TO START THE FORECAST. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL TRAVEL EAST TODAY, BRINGING A COLD
FRONT DOWN BEHIND IT. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH BOTH THE
SURFACE LOW AND THE FRONT AS UPPER AIR PROFILES, BOTH OBSERVED
AND MODELED, SHOW A MOISTURE-STARVED ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE, THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATE TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER TO THE LOW 60S IN
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
A SECOND COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WILL
TRAVEL SOUTH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING AND THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING A BITTERLY COLD, ARCTIC AIR MASS
IN ITS WAKE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (~30% CHANCE) OVER
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT ANY RAIN WILL
BE LIGHT WITH NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUICK WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE DROP
FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S, DOWN TO TEMPERATURES BELOW 30 F.
BOTH THE HREF AND NBM MEAN OUTPUTS BRING SUB-20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH AT LEAST A
50% CHANCE OF SUB-20 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AS FAR SOUTH AS JACKSON,
TN SUNDAY MORNING IN BOTH MODEL SUITES. ALONGSIDE THE COLD AIR, A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ACCOMPANYING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH IN MOST PLACES. THIS WILL
BRING WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
TN/MS BORDER WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
FLIRTING WITH 0 F WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
TENNESSEE, BUT HREF GUIDANCE ONLY BRINGS A 50% CHANCE OF THESE
AREAS REACHING THEIR RESPECTIVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
(0 F AND 5 F).
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG 1040+ MB
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY, EFFECTIVELY FORCING ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH DIABATIC HEATING BEING OFFSET BY THE
STRONG ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS NORTH OF I-40 WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH AREAS ALONG THE
TN/KY BORDER CURRENTLY HAVING A 60%+ CHANCE OF HIGHS NOT EVEN
GETTING TO 20 F, AN IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIR MASS FOR THIS AREA.
MONDAY MORNING HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO BE EVEN COLDER AS THE
CENTER OF COLD AIR MASS REACHES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BARRING THE DELTA
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, WILL HAVE A 60%+ CHANCE OF LOWS
BELOW 15 F. HOWEVER, PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS AND THE LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL HAVE DIED DOWN BY THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILLS REMAINING ABOVE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AND WITH WEAKER COLD AIR ADVECTION, DIABATIC
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST AND ALLOW
SOUTHERLIES TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST, WARMING THE REGION
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL ALREADY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S, WARMING HIGHS FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THE 50S AND 60S. AT THE SAME TIME, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND BECOME NEARLY COMPLETELY ZONAL,
LETTING FURTHER WARMING COMMENCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WELL PAST
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH GEFS MEMBERS KEEPING ZONAL FLOW
THROUGH AT LEAST 240 HOURS. THE ONLY DISCREPANCIES ARE THE
POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE
ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES, WHICH WOULD HAVE THE ABILITY TO CREATE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SO, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT WE WILL WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON WHEN OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE AFTER
THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (90-100%) FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND NO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE 24-30 HOUR TAF
CYCLE AND MAY GUST A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT (AROUND 5KTS) TONIGHT AND CALM BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE HREF HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-40%) OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AT MKL BUT THE NBM KEEPS CLOUDS FARTHER NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 30% THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING
VERY DRY AND COLD AIR. MINIMUM RH VALUES BEGINNING SUNDAY WILL
HOVER AROUND 30%.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS
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