507
FXUS64 KMEG 051201
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
701 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK (2/5) IS IN PLACE FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREAT ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL KICK OFF OVERNIGHT, STARTING WITH
A PRECURSOR TO THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE FORM OF A
DECAYING MCS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL BE LOSING
STEAM AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BY THE TIME
THEY ARRIVE IN THE MORNING, BUT NONETHELESS WE WILL HAVE AN
ACTIVE DAY STARTING BRIGHT AND EARLY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
PROMOTE A BROAD MOISTURE AXIS OVERRUNNING THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY, PRIMING THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE FIRST
OF TWO DISTINCT ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.
PER THE LATEST CAMS, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST ROUND
KICKING OFF SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WED/7PM TUE WITH A SHORTWAVE.
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITH
A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. POINT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS, INDICATIVE OF A
SUPERCELLULAR ENVIRONMENT PRESENTING AN ALL-HAZARDS EVENING. THE
PARAMETER SPACE IS PLENTY SHEARED WITH HREF MEAN BULK SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 50 KTS SUPPORTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
UPSCALE GROWTH. INSTABILITY HAS A BIT MORE OF A SPREAD; THE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE (25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE) FOR SBCAPE IS OVER
400 J/KG DURING THE CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, REVEALING SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORMS' MAXIMUM
INTENSITY. IF THERE IS MORE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, THE REGIME
WILL BE MORE BALANCED AND THUS THE STORMS HAVE A HIGHER INTENSITY
CEILING. IF THE FORECAST 100-150 J/KG OF CIN COMES TO FRUITION,
WE MAY HAVE MORE OF A CONDITIONAL THREAT ON OUR HANDS.
REGARDLESS, LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES AS WELL.
AFTER THE FIRST ROUND CLEARS THE AREA, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT CATCHES
UP. WEDNESDAY'S SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST IS ALSO CONTINGENT
ON WHERE THE SYNOPTIC FRONT STALLS EARLY IN THE DAY. CURRENT HI
RES FORECASTS SUGGEST IT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF I-40 ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REINVIGORATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE EXTREMELY EFFICIENT AIDED
BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES (ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE). WITH A DEEP
LAYER FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, A MOSTLY LINEAR STORM
MODE IS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE SLOW-MOVING ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND THE NEARLY PARALLEL STEERING FLOW, THE MAIN THREATS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FLASH FLOODING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE QPF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS GENERALLY IN THE 1-
2 INCH RANGE, BUT SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING TRAINING STORMS AND
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES WILL MOST LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY
HIGHER AXES WITHIN THIS STORM TOTAL FORECAST. EXPECT STORMS TO
FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN RETURN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT (ALBEIT WEAK) IS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH ON
SATURDAY, PROMOTING A 15-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE RETURN IS AVAILABLE
PRECEDING THE WEEKEND'S FRONT, SO ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHALLOW AND WEAK.
CAD
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY BUT WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AS WEAK OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH JBR,
MEM, AND MKL THIS MORNING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. THE TIMING FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF
CONVECTION STILL REMAINS ON TRACK FOR ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT, SO
THE PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THERE ARE MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HUMIDITY AND WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DIP BELOW 40% ON FRIDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CJC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page