737
FXUS64 KMEG 241734
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY
RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY, AS HIGHS CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LOW (30%) CHANCE OF WETTING RAINFALL
TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 1007MB LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH WITH DRY POLAR AIR OVER THE REGION. ALOFT, BROAD
TROUGHING IS PREVALENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IS ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND IS CREATING
CLOUDY SKIES AND BOUTS OF SPRINKLES MAINLY NEAR THE ARKLAMISS
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL BELOW 30% AND 10 HOUR FUELS REMAIN AROUND 10%.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST BY TOMORROW MORNING AND THE
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION. ECMWF ESAT PERCENTILES ARE PINGING ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR BOTH 200MB AND 500MB HEIGHTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO RECORD HEAT BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION. SEVERAL HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE AT RISK OF BEING
BROKEN ON THURSDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
A FAST-MOVING NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AND HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-
SOUTH ON FRIDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, NOT
MUCH PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. LREF PROBABILITIES OF WETTING
RAINFALL (0.1 INCH OR GREATER) ARE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-
40 AND ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 30% ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
THE MAIN STORY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER, FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN PLAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST FEATURES DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTLES IN. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT,
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE ONCE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION ERODES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
USHER IN HIGHER MOISTURE AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 35-45%. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAIN REMAIN BELOW
30% AND CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB
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