288
FXUS64 KMEG 310503
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1203 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOUTH WIND
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH A 50% TO 80% CHANCE OF RAINFALL STARTING ON
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
TUESDAY'S FORECAST WILL LARGELY BE A REPEAT OF MONDAY, THOUGH A
TAD WARMER AND MAYBE A BIT WINDIER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTENING BETWEEN A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WHICH TRANSLATES TO ELEVATED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. WIDESPREAD 25-30 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH A POCKET OF HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
HREF DEPICTS LOW PROBABILITIES (10-20%) OF MEETING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AREA, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO JUST MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THESE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO AID IN SIGNIFICANT WAA,
BRINGING OUR TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. MEM AIRPORT'S RECORDS ARE IN DANGER OF BEING BROKEN
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.
MOVING INTO MIDWEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO ADOPT MORE
OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE
SCALE LIFT AT THE SURFACE COINCIDING WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
BECOMING STATIONARY AND LIFTING BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONTS. THIS
MARKS A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NEXT COLD FRONT'S TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK FOR THE
LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS, NOW LOOKING LIKE IT WON'T MOVE THROUGH
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING POPS BACK UP TO THE 70-80%
RANGE. THIS SAME FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY STALL OUT FRIDAY, KEEPING
US IN A WET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE PROFILES
INDICATE A MESSY CONVECTIVE REGIME THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG
THIS COMPLEX FORECAST OF STALLED FRONTS AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES.
NO ONE PARTICULAR DAY IS JUMPING OUT FOR A SYNOPTIC SEVERE
WEATHER SETUP; THE JOINT PROBABILITIES OF CAPE > 500 J/KG AND
BULK SHEAR > 30 KTS (A GOOD "FIRST GUESS" AT SEVERE WEATHER
INGREDIENTS) ARE STILL LESS THAN 10% EACH DAY NEXT WEEK PER THE
LREF. IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SEVERAL DAYS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT IS ABLE TO CLEAR THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE FINAL FROPA
INTO THE MID 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FROM A RAINFALL STANDPOINT,
QPF TOTALS ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUN. ENSEMBLE TOTALS ARE NOW MORE IN THE 1.5" REALM OVER THE
COURSE OF 4 DAYS. THIS MORE MANAGEABLE AMOUNT SHOULD HELP
ALLEVIATE OUR DROUGHT WITHOUT POSING MUCH OF A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT.
CAD
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BERMUDA HIGH AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT
MEM/MKL/TUP. JBR WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS AT
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS SHOULD DROP OUT BY 00Z. MARGINAL
LLWS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT JBR/MEM/MKL. CURRENT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO MVFR AROUND 11Z ACROSS
MEM/MKL/TUP, LIFTING BY 18Z.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MINIMAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE, WITH MINRH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 35%. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP OUR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO
BOOTHEEL, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...AEH
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