342
FXUS64 KMEG 111825
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
125 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND LAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY, LEADING TO
PLEASANT AND FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE AMALGAMATION OF FORMER
ISAIAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
MOVING NORTHEAST. DRIER AIR HAS MANAGED TO FILTER INTO THE MID-
SOUTH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, LEADING TO CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION-FREE
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION SUNDAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOWS 60S.
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING
INCREASES IN AMPLITUDE BEHIND THE TROUGH. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
RISE INTO THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEATHER
WILL BE DRY AS WELL AS NO SYSTEMS OR NOTABLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER, SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S AS SOUTHERLIES RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LEADING TO LESS
PLEASANT HEAT THAN WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE RETURNING MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH A SURFACE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE REGION, POTENTIALLY
SIGNALING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MID-SOUTH
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY DEPICTS AN
AXIS OF MUCAPE (~1000 J/KG) STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EAST
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MOST OF THE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE MID-SOUTH, LEADING TO A LOWER COVERAGE WITH
SOUTHERN EXTENT AND A DECREASE IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS. SO,
FOR NOW EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE THE INSTABILITY WANES.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST FRIDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT. CURRENT
GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO BE MORE
POLAR IN ORIGIN, ADVECTING FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY
AND WILL CLEAR THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UPON ITS ARRIVAL. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
DROP WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S AMIDST MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THIS
TYPE OF AIR MASS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TO DROP
BELOW 40. IN ALL, IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BRING A SHOT OF TRULY FALL-LIKE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
5 KTS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING AT JBR AND MEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
DRY AIR HAS RETURNED TO THE REGION BEHIND ISAIAS' DEPARTURE.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL THEREFORE DROP THROUGH
MONDAY WITH VALUES BELOW 40 PERCENT STARTING TODAY, DROPPING TO
AROUND OR BELOW 30 PERCENT MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, LIGHT
20-FOOT WINDS AND LOW COVERAGE OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW
30 PERCENT WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LOW FIRE DANGER. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN TUESDAY, BRINGING HIGHER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION AND INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND OR ABOVE
40 PERCENT. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY, LEADING
TO COOLER, DRIER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
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