244
FXUS64 KMEG 241818
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
118 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, BUT EXTREME HEAT IS NOT
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG, 594+ DM RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE,
AN AREA OF WEAK TROUGHING EXISTS FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA EAST INTO
ARKANSAS WITH A POOL OF RICH, 70+ F DEWPOINTS OVER MUCH OF
ARKANSAS AND AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 925-
700 MB WILL CONTINUE TO TAP INTO THIS MOISTURE AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY THE HEAVIEST, IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION WITH A FEW SHOWERS WANDERING INTO
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 90 AND
100 F.
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE
FRONTAL INTERFACE BEGINS TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, AN OVERNIGHT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED TO
TAKE PLACE, TEMPORARILY INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.
THIS NEW ROUND COULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR EAST AS WEST
TENNESSEE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SO, HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
AROUND 30% ACROSS FAR WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1.75" PWATS AND 1000 - 2000 J/KG MUCAPE, WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT A LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK. IN TERMS OF SEVERE
WEATHER, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND WEAK BULK SHEAR (< 20 KNOTS)
WILL LIMIT THE RISK FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SO, HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION AT
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE COVERAGE WILL LESSEN WITH TIME, LEADING TO A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. BY LATE
MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 F. NBM DATA SHOWS THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB TO 110 F ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DELTA IN EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER,
REMNANT CLOUD COVER AND/OR PRECIPITATION COULD REMAIN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, POTENTIALLY LIMITING THE EXTENT BY WHICH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE. SO, HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BRINGING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO 105 F.
ADDITIONALLY, A HEAT ADVISORY WAS DISCUSSED, BUT AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF ANY HEAT HEADLINES UNTIL THE DETAILS OF
TONIGHT'S PRECIPITATION IS BETTER RESOLVED.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT 700 MB
AND ABOVE. AN AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST IN THE MEANTIME, INTRODUCING SOME
SUBTLE BACKGROUND HEIGHT FALLS AS IT NUDGES THE WESTERN RIDGE
FURTHER WEST. FURTHERMORE, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS
THAT DECAYING CONVECTION FROM THE PLAINS MAY INTRODUCE EMBEDDED
MESOSCALE TROUGHS INTO THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WOULD TRACK
OVER THE MID-SOUTH. THE SAME GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH (> 70 F)
DEWPOINTS, HELPING TO YIELD 3000+ J/KG MLCAPE, ALONGSIDE 25 -
35 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS PARAMETER SPACE WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANY STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL
DETERMINE THE PRECISE LOCATION AND IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SO, FOR NOW, SPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1/5) RISK FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LEVEL AND
LOCATIONS OUTLOOKED ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A GRADUAL PATTERN SHIFT AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
MAKES IT TO THE EAST COAST. RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY BEHIND IT OVER
THE SOUTHERN CONUS WITH NEAR 594 DM HEIGHTS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLATEAU THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, BUT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RISE AGAIN AS THE
HEIGHTS RETURN NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL WANE IN COVERAGE BY SATURDAY WHERE
POPS DROP BELOW 10% THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED -SHRAS AND -TSRAS MOVING NNW TO SSE. HAVE INTRODUCED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR JBR AND MEM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL
IMPACT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW BY TOMORROW MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
FIRE WEATHER DANGER REMAINS LOW AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 50% THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH
LIGHT 20 FOOT WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED WETTING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS, WEST TENNESSEE, AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING ACCOMPANYING THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOW CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER. FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AC3
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