783
FXUS64 KMEG 011055
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
555 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- A WARM AND WET PATTERN WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER RESIDES ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THIS EVENING AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE. ALOFT,
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. A NOTABLE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DOWNSTREAM OVER NEW
MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE EAST AND DAMPEN
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. AS IT DOES, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL RIDE ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH BROAD OVERRUNNING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH CURRENT PWATS AROUND 0.6 INCHES
AND NEGLIGIBLE POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT, SHOWERS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WITH ACTIVITY SKIRTING ACROSS
OUR NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT QPF TOTALS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OR LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE, A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND DELIVER A SHOT OF COOL CANADIAN AIR TO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY COOL WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 30S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE DELTA.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EACH
AFTERNOON.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON MONDAY WITH MODERATE RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. A
LARGE TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE ARE SOME
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION OF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
HOWEVER, LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. JOINT PROBABILITIES OF
SBCAPE > 500 J/KG, CIN > -25 J/KG, AND BULK SHEAR > 30 KNOTS
REMAIN LESS THAN 20% ON TUESDAY WITH 20 TO 40% PROBABILITIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT'S A BIT EARLY TO SORT OUT DETAILS, BUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, COOL CANADIAN AIR LOOKS TO SETTLE
INTO THE REGION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. -SHRA WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD BY THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. WHILE LOW
CONFIDENCE, THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY TERMINAL SEEING -SHRA IS TUP
WITH JBR, MEM, AND MKL REMAINING DRY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
N/NE UP TO AROUND 10 KTS THOUGH THE DAYTIME, BEFORE FALLING BACK
BELOW 7 KTS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40 PERCENT INTO FRIDAY THEN FALLING TO 35 TO
40 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND WITH 20FT WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. SATURDAY
PRESENTS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RH VALUES TO DROP
NEAR 35%. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CMA
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