641
FXUS64 KMEG 042308
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
608 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY,
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S.
- HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WELL. HEAT INDICES WILL
CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY AND OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER GEORGIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
FEATURE WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (<10%) OF A SHOWER ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER AND THE TENNESSEE RIVER FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY
THURSDAY AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO CREEP BACK UP AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP. DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
START TO CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN, THOUGH THEY ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT MOST PLACES
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE DELTA
REGION SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS.
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND INTO THE MID-SOUTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (20-35%) ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER INCH FOR THE MOST PART.
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE MID 70S. AS A RESULT, THE CHANCE FOR
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105F OR GREATER ARE ON THE INCREASE FROM
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS. MODELS
DIFFER REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT FOG AT MKL AND TUP,
SO HAVE OMITTED FOG FOR THIS CYCLE. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY
AHEAD OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE, BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.
KTUP REMAINS AMD NOT SKED DUE TO ONGOING COMMUNICATION ISSUES.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THERE ARE NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40%,
WITH 20 FT WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM
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