070
FXUS64 KMEG 080545
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENTER FAR NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD
INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BRING THE GREATEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS THAT WILL RADIATE NICELY, THOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM TX MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO DEEPLY INTO THE 40S ACROSS NORTH MS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING. HIGHS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER, INTO THE MID
70S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (15-25 PERCENT) TO AREAS ALONG THE KY/MO
BORDERS FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS WILL ADVECT SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
MS VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE IS
TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH ON THE LATEST MODELS AND PRECIP CHANCES
HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTH MS EACH SUCCESSIVE FORECAST
CYCLE.
A SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. A LITTLE DEEPER
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH BETTER LIFT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF
750 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 30 KTS OF SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES ARE LOW (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) BUT WILL BE MONITORED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH WITH
SUNDAY'S FRONT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY WITH GUSTY NNE WINDS
AND HIGHS IN LOWER TO MID 70S. TUESDAY MORNING WILL SEE LOWS IN
THE 40S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH. A
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. A
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AFTER 15Z FRIDAY, WEAKENING AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT 6 KFT -
8 KFT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWING WETTING RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MID-
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WARM AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JAB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page