406
FXUS64 KMEG 191541
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1041 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
- A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
SPREADING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWARD ACROSS
MOST OF MID-SOUTH.
- A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A DRY, ALBEIT A BIT HUMID, DAY IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH THIS FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH
OF THE AREA, KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH. WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD CREEP INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY THE AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IS
OVERALL LOW AND MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT, DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE COULD INHIBIT ANY
DENSE FOG, I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCALIZED, PATCHY FOG
WERE TO DEVELOP NEAR BODIES OF WATER NEAR SUNRISE. BY SATURDAY, A
WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT BACK THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH,
WITH INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED NORTH OF THE TN/MS
STATELINE, WITH BETTER, SCATTERED CHANCES ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO WANE
FOLLOWING SUNSET. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S BOTH TODAY (FRIDAY) AND ON
SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY, THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH WILL BE FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, ALTHOUGH THE BETTER COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT
HOURS, A DECAYING MCS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MISSOURI BRINGING A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID-SOUTH. THERE IS
STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY
OF CAMS JUST NOW COMING INTO RANGE. JOINT PROBABILITIES OF
CONDUCIVE SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS ARE IN THE 30 TO 40% RANGE
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY SUNDAY EVENING,
THUS CONDITIONS COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. AS SUCH, FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH
ARE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) AREA WITH THOSE ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40 ELSEWHERE IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/5). MORE CLARITY
SHOULD BE COMING AS ADDITIONAL CAMS COME INTO RANGE. BEYOND
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN A QUASI-
ZONAL TO SUBTLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, KEEPING US IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST DAILY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AT TO JUST BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
LOW STRATUS AT MEM AND MKL WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING TAF SITES, PARTICULARLY TUP THROUGH THE
12Z TAF CYCLE AS ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OVER CENTRAL MS.
N WINDS BETWEEN 6-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MINRH
VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER 40% WITH A TYPICAL, HUMID SUMMERTIME
PATTERN. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CJC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page