598
FXUS64 KMEG 160349
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1049 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LITTLE
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO REACH UP TO 109 DEGREES FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL INTENSIFY TO
600 DAM BY TOMORROW AND VERY SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH THROUGH 7 PM WEDNESDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED LATER IN THE WEEK. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHICH
WILL ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER DUE TO THE DRIER
AIRMASS. EITHER WAY, IT IS GOING TO BE VERY HOT. THE PROLONGED
NATURE OF THIS HEAT WAVE COMPOUNDS THE RISK. REMEMBER YOUR HEAT
SAFETY RULES AND BE SURE TO CHECK ON THE ELDERLY, CHILDREN, AND
PETS. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
EACH DAY, THE MODELS ARE DELAYING THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
UPPER LOW FROM THE ATLANTIC/GULF INTO THE MID-SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE, THE MODELS ARE ALSO KEEPING ANY TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST MUCH FURTHER TO OUR NORTH. A
COLD FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LITTLE RAIN
AND A BREAK FROM THE RECORD HEAT, BUT IT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK GIVEN
THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY RE-STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION AS NEXT
WEEK PROGRESSES. OVERALL, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, AND ACCORDING
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES, PROBABLY LONGER THAN THAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL EDGE UP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. ANTICIPATING A DIURNAL CU FIELD AT OR ABOVE
5,000FT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THAT COULD AID IN ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40%
RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
10 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL. NO FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM
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