037
FXUS64 KMEG 270419
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1119 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
AMIDST LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS.
- AREAWIDE RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
HALLOWEEN WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
AN ANOMALOUS 590DAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRINGING WARM
AFTERNOONS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND CHILLY MORNINGS IN THE
40S TO MID 50S. A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS FIXED OVER THE REGION
WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.5-0.7", NEARING THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SUCH PWATS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
ALSO PERSIST AS DRY AIR MIXES DOWN EACH AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WE ASK YOU TO PLEASE CONTINUE TO ADHERE
TO LOCAL BURN BANS, PROPERLY DISPOSE OF CIGARETTES AND MATCHES,
AND AVOID USING EQUIPMENT THAT CREATES SPARKS.
BY MIDDAY TUESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN AS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING BEGINS TO PUSH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE
WITNESSED AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO FILTER IN TO INCREASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BY A SMALL MARGIN, HOPEFULLY HELPING TO
ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER, LOCAL BURN BANS WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT DUE TO OUR ONGOING DRY SPELL. OUR NEXT SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION RETURNS HALLOWEEN WEEKEND AS A SUBTROPICAL JET BEGINS
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST PWATS INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5-1.7", NEARING THE 97TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
LATEST LREF GUIDANCE HAS A 40-55% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.5" AND A 20-
30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1" OF RAINFALL. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
WELCOMED AS EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4)
CURRENTLY EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 7 KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. THE LATEST ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT IS FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW THE 90TH PERCENTILE ON WEDNESDAY, DUE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD WILL
BE 20 FT WINDS, WHICH ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH. A
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK AND PATCHY FOG MAY
FORM EACH MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...DNM
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