080
FXUS64 KMEG 181717
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
- HOT TEMPERATURES WITH A LOW CHANCE (30 PERCENT OR LESS) OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS RAIN
CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR WORSEN DUE TO A
LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AND PROLONGED HEAT. THIS ALSO
RAISES WILDLAND FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONFLUENCE WITH
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AND ANOTHER, STRONGER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING HAVE ALLOWED
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S BY 17Z, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET.
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRAGGED ALONG WITH IT. NO MEANINGFUL
CHANGES TO THE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL OCCUR, BUT ENOUGH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT (< .5") OWING
TO DRY LOW LEVELS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE, OFFERING
LITTLE REPRIEVE FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT. BY SATURDAY, SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER, DRYING OUT THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BALLOONS CONSIDERABLY MOVING INTO THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE SAME AREA TUESDAY. RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN VERY POOR REGARDING THE POST-EJECTION
EVOLUTION WITH TWO MAIN SOLUTIONS: 1) AN AMPLIFIED CUTOFF LOW OR
2) A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LREF GUIDANCE IS NEARLY SPLIT
DOWN THE MIDDLE AS WELL WITH AROUND 55% OF CLUSTERED MEMBERS
FAVORING SCENARIO 1 OVER 2. IMPACTS WILL BE ENTIRELY BASED ON
WHICH OCCURS WITH A CUTOFF LOW LIKELY BRINGING INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES; OUR BEST SHOT AT RELIEF FROM THE
ONGOING DROUGHT AND HEAT WAVE. IN THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING
SCENARIO, ANY RELIEF WILL BE BRIEF. REGARDLESS, THE PREDICTABILITY
HORIZON ON THIS SYSTEM IS VERY SMALL AND WILL TAKE SUCCESSIVE
FORECAST PERIOD TO HONE IN ON EXACTLY WHAT WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK.
IN THE MEANTIME, WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR AT
LEAST 7 DAYS, PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE, THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL, AND EASTERN ARKANSAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A D3
(EXTREME) DROUGHT. LATEST ESTIMATES SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE REGION
HAS SEEN ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER OR LESS THAN NORMAL
IN THE LAST 30 DAYS. WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED, AN EXPANSION AND
WORSENING OF THE DROUGHT IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST SO LONG
AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
VFR WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. A MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK
WILL APPROACH JBR AND MEM RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW 40%
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
LOW (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ADDITIONALLY, A D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT HAS BEEN PLACED FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND EASTERN
ARKANSAS. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGERS ELEVATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT 20 FT WINDS WILL PREVENT MORE
SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS
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