578
FXUS64 KMEG 120003 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
703 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING A
LOW-END SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING, STRETCHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST
MISSOURI AS IT CONTINUES DIVING SOUTHEASTERLY. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY, THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. NO
HEAT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY AS PROBABILITIES FROM THE HREF
INDICATE A 30-60% CHANCE OF HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100F ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MS RIVER TODAY, BUT THOSE PROBABILITIES ARE NIL FOR
105F (WHICH IS HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA).
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT 591 DAM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
HAS DOMINATED THE GULF COAST FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE COLD
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO BRING STEEP HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR AREA. THE
BEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL REMAIN DISPLACED NORTH OF THE MID-SOUTH,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S AND PERHAPS THE LOWER
90S AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. THIS WILL LEAVE BEHIND SOME
RESIDUAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WHICH COULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR
A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO. BULK SHEAR, HOWEVER, IS NOT
LIKELY TO EXCEED 35KTS. EVEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE HAS A 36 KT
MAXIMA OF BULK SHEAR, GEOGRAPHICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVOR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEING WASHED OUT DUE TO THE INTENSITY OF THE
RIDGE, WHICH KEEPS CONFIDENCE ON THE LOWER END FOR SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT. INSTABILITY MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WITHIN THE STORMS, BUT OTHER FACTORS REMAIN LACKLUSTER. IF A
SEVERE STORM WERE TO OCCUR TONIGHT, EXPECTED LOCATION WOULD BE IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL, AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND STRETCH A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON SUNDAY, THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO CROSS THE
REGION BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, A LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN WILL
EMERGE AND ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE WORK
WEEK.
ON TUESDAY, AN EMBEDDED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME
ABSORBED WITHIN THE BROADER-SCALE TROUGH. THIS INTERACTION WILL
SEND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH. THE LREF KEEPS
LOW (<20%) PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS DAILY
THROUGH THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN. ASIDE FROM SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES, PROBABILITIES FROM THE LREF OF ACCUMULATING 2 OR MORE
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE BETWEEN 20-30% ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40 WITH 30-50% PROBABILITIES SOUTH OF THE CORRIDOR. IT
REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL SPECIFICS, BUT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME WHEN LIFT FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNCERTAIN, CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM TO HIGH IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
DUE TO RAIN COOLED SURFACES, EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER, AND NORTHWEST
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JUNE.
DNM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN IS A BROKEN LINE OF SHRA AND
ASSOCIATED TSRA POTENTIAL AROUND DAYBREAK. 21Z RAP AND HRRR
SOUNDINGS SHOWED FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AT THAT
TIME, WHICH WOULD NORMALLY PRECLUDE TSRA. BUT AN APPROACHING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TAP
INTO AN UNSTABLE LAYER ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION, WITH
SCATTERED TSRA THE LIKELY RESULT.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTH MS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSRA AROUND
TUP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION, WETTING RAIN CHANCES RESUME FRIDAY
AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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