978
FXUS64 KMEG 280507
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1107 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
* CHILLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
* RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. A FEW SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY.
* SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEXT TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN OR A MIXED PRECIPITATION
REGIME TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT A FEW DAYS AGO. AS SUCH,
DRY AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE FOLLOWED. LOWS ON FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND THROUGHOUT FRIDAY, REACHING INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT THIS WEEK'S WEATHER WILL
BEGIN TO LEAVE THE AREA FRIDAY, AND WITH IT, HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE BEGUN APPROACHING THE REGION.
WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN COMMENCE AHEAD OF THIS NEW WAVE WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE 925 MB. AS THIS MOISTURE
ARRIVES, ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE LEFTOVER, COOL AIR MASS WILL
BEGIN TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY MORNING. SOME MODELS SHOW
THE SFC - 700 MB PROFILE BELOW FREEZING, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOWFLAKES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THE AIR BENEATH 850 MB - 925 MB WILL BE VERY DRY WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ABOVE 10 C. IF THIS IS THE CASE SATURDAY,
PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS
AND WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. EVENTUALLY
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER, AND ANY WET-BULBING THAT TAKES
PLACE WILL BE OVERCOME WITH RAIN TAKING OVER THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY, PUSHING RAIN TO OUR SOUTH. GEFS
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
CENTRAL MS. MONDAY LOOKS DRY, BUT ANOTHER WAVE WILL THEN APPROACH
FROM THE WEST, AMPLIFYING MONDAY AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE FORECAST AGAIN.
ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES WITHIN THE PAST
SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS, ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE UPPER
PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE NEW SHORTWAVE REACHES
THE MID-SOUTH, THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO
ORGANIZE INTO A SURFACE LOW. MOISTURE WILL THEN OVERRUN A NEWLY-
FORMED WARM FRONT INTO AN AIRMASS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF WINTRY WEATHER. THE
COMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST NOW EXIST AT THE MESOSCALE,
PARTICULARLY ON HOW FAR NORTH ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE
SFC-850 MB LAYER WILL MAKE IT. THIS TRANSITION LINE FROM
SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO JUST RAIN DIFFERS BY HUNDREDS OF
MILES WITHIN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WHO,
IF ANYBODY, WOULD RECEIVE IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS STILL RIDDLED WITH
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EXACT IMPACTS BUT SOME FORM OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THE FORECAST IS STILL A MIXED BAG
REGARDING HOW LONG PRECIPITATION WILL ABATE. SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS KEEP PRODUCING QPF OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHERS
WAIT UNTIL DRY THE REGION OUT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AFTER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING TO THE EAST OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, VEERING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL CLOUD
DECK(6-8K FT) WILL APPROACH MEM AROUND 29/12Z AND JBR AFTER
29/06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. WETTING RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS
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