608
FXUS64 KMEG 092306
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
606 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BETWEEN 105°F AND 109°F.
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS
EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF FLOODING.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-SOUTH NEAR NORMAL. AN INCOMING EASTERLY
WAVE BY MID-WEEK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AFFECTING SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF
THE CONUS, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS IN NE ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL,
SUPPORTED BY OVERNIGHT MCS OUTFLOW, HAVE LEFT RESIDUAL CIRRUS
CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND SW TENNESSEE. THIS CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHILE MAINTAINING
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY. BASED ON NBM GUIDANCE AND LATEST TRENDS,
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND
PARTS OF NW MISSISSIPPI, EFFECTIVE TODAY AND TOMORROW. HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105-109 F.
THROUGH SATURDAY, THE MID-SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE A ZONAL TO WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN, INCREASING VULNERABILITY TO NIGHTTIME
MCSS AND DAYTIME MCVS. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY, FOCUSING ON AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR, WHERE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND 15-30 KNOTS OF SHEAR FAVOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
THE PRIMARY THREAT. FURTHERMORE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS ACTIVE
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING, AS REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL POSE A CONTINUED FLOOD THREAT TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE REGION.
AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. LREF GUIDANCE INDICATES
500MB HEIGHTS NEAR 600 DAM-CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MID-SOUTH WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, RESULTING IN NEAR-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY MID-WEEK, AN EASTERLY WAVE MAY MOVE INTO
THE AREA, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH PERSISTENT
DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY.
AC3
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE AIRSPACE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK,
WITH A PREFERENCE FOR INITIAL EASTERLY MOVEMENT. JBR AND MKL HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO 06Z. MODELS
SUGGEST AN INITIAL EASTERLY TRACK, SHIFTING TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY PROGRESSION AFTER 06Z AND INCREASING CHANCES AGAIN
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AT
MEM. IN 24-30 HOURS, ANOTHER ROBUST LINE OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP
AND AFFECT ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUP. GENERALLY,
VFR AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN STABLE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY
ABOVE 40 PERCENT, ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS AND DAILY
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ARZ009.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ018-026>028-035-036-
048-049-058.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ001-007-008-010>012-
020.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
054-055.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TNZ048-049-088.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...DNM
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