028
FXUS64 KMEG 250453
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1153 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY
RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY, AS HIGHS CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
LATE THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS STARTING TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH STARTS TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
TODAY WITH SOME CLOUDS THIS MORNING. SSW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
START TO PICK UP, AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON AS SUNSHINE INCREASES. WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL NOSE IN ON THURSDAY
WITH HEIGHTS RISING TO 585 DM. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-70%) OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 85 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. RECORD HIGHS ARE WITHIN REACH
THROUGHOUT THE MID-SOUTH. (MEMPHIS 86, JACKSON 86, JONESBORO 87,
AND TUPELO 89)
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND A LITTLE MORE UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.
AS A RESULT, THE PROBABILITIES OF A WETTING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS (NORTH OF I-40) HAVE INCHED UP A BIT TO 30-50%. THE
FRONT WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES TEMPORARILY. BY SATURDAY
MORNING, THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (ABOUT 50%) OF LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS NE AR, THE MO BOOTHEEL, AND NW TN.
THE PATTERN THEN REPEATS FOR THE THIRD TIME. A PERIOD OF BRIEF
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR, FOLLOWED BY THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIPPING EAST, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REDEVELOP, AND UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LEADS TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS SOON AS SUNDAY, WITH LOWER 80S RETURNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 7-9 KTS
AT MEM, MKL, AND TUP, AND 9-12 KTS WITH A GUST OR TWO AT JBR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
USHER IN HIGHER MOISTURE AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 35-45%. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAIN REMAIN BELOW
50% AND ARE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CJC
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