057
FXUS64 KMEG 261658
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1158 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S.
- RAIN SHOWER CHANCES RETURN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
THANKS TO CLOUD COVERAGE STEMMING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION IN
OK/KS. A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS ARE
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE OZARKS AS OF 11 AM. CONFIDENCE IN THESE
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE MID-SOUTH IS LOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESULTING IN LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
VALUES. SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF TODAY AS
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MORE ON MONDAY AS HURRICANE POLO
IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THIS MOISTURE, HOWEVER, WILL TAKE TIME TO DAMPEN THE CURRENT
586 DAM RIDGE OVER THE AREA, SO THE LARGEST EFFECTS WILL NOT BE
FELT UNTIL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERTAKES THE ENTIRE COLUMN BY TUESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY CLIMB.
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS FAVORED A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BEFORE TRAVERSING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS
UNFORTUNATELY DELAYS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND ACCOMPANIED RAINFALL. MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT BRING WIDESPREAD
POPS TO THE FORECAST UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING AT THE EARLIEST.
THERE ARE STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING OF FROPA, NOTED
BY 10-15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NBM 25TH AND
75TH PERCENTILES LATE NEXT WEEK. ENJOY THE LAST DAYS OF COOLER
CONDITIONS BEFORE SUMMER LIKE HUMIDITY RETURNS BY MIDWEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
30 HOURS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE MID-SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN
BENIGN, DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION, CONSISTENTLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
MODERATE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS FROM BEING REACHED. FURTHERMORE, LIGHT WINDS
AND COOLING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG, PARTICULARLY NEAR RIVER BASINS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...DNM
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