789
FXUS64 KMEG 272335 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
635 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS ONGOING ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE 80S. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SLOWLY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA, WITH ONGOING CLOUDINESS
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. AS THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FIRE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT, WHICH WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE-NORMAL BY THE AFTERNOON.
LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER
80S, WITH LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS MAY ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE
TN RIVER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS NEAR SUNRISE
WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT INTO FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL DIP BACK DOWN
A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO NORMAL, WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY THIS POINT, DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.
BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, EVENTUALLY MOVING OVER THE REGION INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND
CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST,
EXPECT FOR A DRY AND WARM FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. FOR SATURDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STILL LINGER IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. BY SUNDAY, PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB FURTHER INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S. DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME, DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT MANAGEABLE. THERE IS CURRENTLY A
LOW PROBABILITY (AROUND 10 TO 20%) OF SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
DELTA REGIONS EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES, THUS NEEDING HEAT HEADLINES.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE, GENERALLY
PLAN TO MESSAGE THE RISING TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
ISOLATED TSRA MOVING SOUTH TOWARD TUP SHOULD DECAY WITH LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING, BUT MAY PERSIST INTO THE 10SM VCNTY RING PAST
00Z. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT ALL MIDSOUTH TAF SITES.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TUP TOWARD SUNRISE, BUT SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE MIXES DOWN AFTER
SUNRISE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, SOME AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL BELOW 40% ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
THROUGH THIS SAME TIMEFRAME, 20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 10 MPH. WITH THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS, THERE COULD BE A VERY LOW THREAT FOR SOME FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ANS
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