754
FXUS64 KMEG 131110
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
610 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
- WARM AND HUMID SUMMER DAYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ON THURSDAY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE
LOW 100S BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
INCREASING CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
A DECAYING CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH. CAM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS ACTIVITY ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATING BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR AREA, WHICH FOLLOWS THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
THERE WILL BE A MENTION OF ISOLATED POPS MAINLY ALONG THE TN/KY
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT EXPECT FOR
ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE MID-SOUTH TO REMAIN DRY AND MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER DISSIPATE OR STAY EAST OF THE AREA. INTO
THURSDAY, A RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO PUSH TO THE EAST.
WHILE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON, EXPECT FOR THESE TO OCCUR DURING PEAK HEATING AND
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOLLOWING SUNSET. AS FOR OUR TEMPERATURES,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID 70S, LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MS RIVER CAN EXPECT FOR HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB ABOVE
110 DEGREES, WITH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER ELSEWHERE. AS SUCH, AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
FOR MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK, IF NOT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS STILL SPREAD ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF A WEAK TROUGH BY MIDWEEK, WHICH WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE KNOCKED BACK A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER,
DECREASING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES STILL MEANS HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S, SO THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. FURTHER
EXTENSION BEYOND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, FOR AT LEAST A
HEAT ADVISORY, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS RECORDS GO, THE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES ARE WELL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS SUCH, IT APPEARS
THAT NO DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN.
REGARDLESS OF THIS, CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED IF YOU MUST BE
OUTSIDE FOR PROLONGED PERIODS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. TAKE ACTIONS NOW TO BE PREPARED FOR THE RISING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH,
DRIVEN BY A STAGNANT HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH THIS PATTERN, NO
MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT, WHILE 20-
FOOT WINDS STAY BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ007-010-011-
020.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ001>006-008-009-
012>017-021>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...AC3
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page