684
FXUS64 KMEG 031729
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1229 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AREA WIDE.
- DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE HEAT CONTINUES THIS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS, CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS. 590+ DM
HEIGHTS STILL RESIDE OVER THE MID-SOUTH, BUT HAVE BEGUN TO
SLACKEN A TAD AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS
MOVEMENT IN THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
VERY HIGH HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 F THROUGH
BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY, WARRANTING THE CONTINUATION OF AN AREA-
WIDE HEAT ADVISORY. THE HEAT FORECAST ON SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN. THE RIDGE WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO AT OR BELOW 590 DM,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO HEAT INDICES BELOW 105 F. ADDITIONALLY, SOME
GUIDANCE, NAMELY THE NAM/REFS, SHOW RELATIVELY HIGHER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON THAT WOULD ALSO ACT TO COOL
THE REGION. FOR BOTH THESE REASONS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO WARRANT AN EXTENSION TO THE HEAT ADVISORY QUITE YET, BUT NBM
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO REACH 105 F
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA.
DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY. STORMS
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER FORCING AS PWATS
REMAIN ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE (~1.8 INCHES). WITHIN A
DIURNALLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND SUCH HIGH HUMIDITY, AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS FROM
ISOLATED MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ON THE DOWNTREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS, POTENTIALLY
MODIFIED FROM AFTERNOON RAINS AND OUTFLOW, DROP TO AROUND 90 F
WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 F. ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES DO NOT MEET
THE CRITERIA FOR A HEAT ADVISORY, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
HOT AND WILL BE OPPRESSIVE AND DANGEROUS TO THOSE NOT PREPARED.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE COMPLETELY DEAMPLIFIES
INTO A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS OR AREAS OF
STRONGER FLOW IN THE TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR DAYS OF HIGHER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY VALUES LIKELY TO
CLIMB ABOVE 2000 J/KG BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE,
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FROM THURSDAY AND INTO THE
END OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND, ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE
ON WHAT LOOKS LIKE A REPRIEVE FROM THE CURRENT EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGING, OR WHAT'S LEFT
OF IT ANYWAYS, OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS WILL RETROGRADE
WEST INTO THE ROCKIES AND AMPLIFY, SHOVING NORTHWESTERLIES SOUTH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLY HIGH AGREEMENT AMONGST BOTH
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ON THIS PATTERN CHANGE
OCCURRING. DETAILS ON THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF ANY COOLING OR
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVES IN THE FLOW IS YET TO
BE DETERMINED THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF TSRA APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM TUP TO
NEAR MKL THIS AFTERNOON, BASED ON GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA REMAINS LIMITED FOR MEM. THE REFS AND HREF
DEPICT ISOLATED PROBABILITIES OF 25% FOR LIGHTNING IN THE MEM
VCNTY AND THERE WAS SOME AGITATED CUMULUS NOTED ON GOES VISIBLE
IMAGERY OVER SHELBY COUNTY AT 12:15Z. WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE
OPTED TO RETAIN THE PROB30 TSRA FOR MEM THIS AFTERNOON.
TSRA CHANCES APPEAR A LITTLE GREATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
CAMS DEPICTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING OVER A BROADER
GEOGRAPHIC AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TYPICALLY AT OR ABOVE 40 PERCENT EACH
DAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB
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