539
FXUS64 KMEG 020440
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1140 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
- A NOTABLE PATTERN SHIFT TAKES PLACE FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY AND
COOLER, SEASONAL WEATHER IS FORECAST BY NEXT MONDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN UP TO 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE IN THE MID-SOUTH BY
TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE
50S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN 80KT SUB-TROPICAL JET IS
TRANSPORTING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO AROUND SUNSET ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW RAIN
SHOWERS BISECTING ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING. WARM AND MILD
CONDITIONS PERSIST LATE THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A RELATIVELY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THIS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-SOUTH
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
MODESTLY TOWARDS SUNRISE TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM AS
MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AS BETTER UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL DEPART FRIDAY MORNING. THE 00Z HREF INDICATES
PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG
ARE BETWEEN 40-45 PERCENT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THIS MAY OCCUR IF THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER. OTHERWISE, CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING THE
99TH PERCENTILE AROUND 2 INCHES, NORMALLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, A
LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL
MITIGATE ANY OVERALL FLOODING THREAT. CURRENT FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH HAVE TRENDED DOWN AGAIN WITH
TOTALS AVERAGING AROUND ONE INCH AREAWIDE FOR THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A MINIMUM IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL A
SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES THE FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA BY
SUNDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF LOW
TEMPERATURES BELOW 48 DEGREES AVERAGING AROUND 30-35 PERCENT
ALONG THE MO/KY BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
PROB30 GROUPS WERE MAINTAINED AT MEM, MKL, AND JBR FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH OVERALL COVERAGE, AND LEFT
OUT MENTION OF TS IN THIS TAF SET AS INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED
TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AT MEM, MKL, AND
JBR UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER N/NNE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM FOR
AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CJC
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