581  
FXUS64 KMEG 191709  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1209 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY HOT TEMPERATURES  
TO THE MID-SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S WITH MIDDLE  
TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD  
FRONT MAY BRING SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND GOES-16 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS  
SHOW A 597 DM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC  
STATES WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN  
UNITED STATES. A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT  
UP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEYS IN BETWEEN  
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN  
PLACE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
70S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD  
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN  
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
THIS MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY POPS  
AT THIS TIME AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES  
TODAY DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEING PRESENT. RAIN CHANCES WILL  
REMAIN MINIMAL AT BEST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM  
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE PRESENCE OF A CAPPING INVERSION.  
NAEFS MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1-2 STANDARD  
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL  
BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH NIGHTLY LOWS IN THE 70S.  
 
LONG-TERM OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK BACK  
DOOR COLD FRONT MAY DROP INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. POOLING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH  
THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S MAY  
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA AROUND 105 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  
THIS FRONT MAY ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES.  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S BY  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
BUILDS EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
CJC  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR VFR  
CIGS AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL VEER EAST BEFORE  
RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, NO  
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.  
 
ANS  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC  
AVIATION...ANS  
 
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