644
FXUS64 KMEG 132315
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
615 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- RECORD-SETTING HEAT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE MID-SOUTH.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
GULF COASTLINE IN TEXAS AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH
A TROUGH CENTERED OVER NEVADA. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER
HEIGHTS, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT RECORD
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY, CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAT, SOUTHERLIES HAVE BEGUN TO ADVECT HIGHER
MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, LEADING TO
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 F ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 - 1500 J/KG. OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALIKE SHOW AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS,
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, MOST CAMS DO
NOT INITIATE ANY CONVECTION TODAY, LIKELY DUE TO A LACK OF
SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SO, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AHEAD OF A STALLING COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY
STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE MID-SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ADVECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY FROM TUESDAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE QUITE
WEAK AT A PALTRY 15 - 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNORGANIZED,
MOSTLY SINGLE-CELL THUNDERSTORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO SURPASS 2.00" WITHIN THE MOISTURE
AXIS, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THEREFORE, RAINFALL WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY AND
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. STORM MOTIONS ABOVE
15 KNOTS AND DRY GROUND WILL KEEP A HIGHER FLOODING THREAT AT
BAY, BUT AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD LOCALLY INCREASE FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE THAT WILL BE PRESENT IS
THEN FORECAST TO ADVECT NORTH WITH DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
ISAIAS OVER THE GULF BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DRAMATICALLY DECREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, A TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST, THROWING A STRONG COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
AT THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY WITH BLUSTERY WINDS, COOLER AIR, AND,
THANKS TO THE REMOVAL OF MOISTURE, DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL THEREFORE MARK A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE RELATIVE TO THE
REST OF THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. SIMILAR WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE 40S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WITH A 30% - 40% CHANCE FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE TO FALL
INTO THE 30S SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ASPECT TO THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
WILL BE ENHANCED FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL. AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 - 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS IN
D2 (SEVERE) AND D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT, KEEPING FUELS 1-HOUR AND 10-
HOUR FUELS DRY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRES TO
SPREAD IN THE ABSENCE OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITH FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND OR BELOW 30% LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THEREFORE, A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE
REQUIRED FRIDAY WITH SPC PLACING A 40% CRITICAL OUTLINE FOR AREAS
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FOR NOW, RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25%
REMAINING ISOLATED, BUT GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE OFTEN
UNDERESTIMATES THE DEGREE OF MIXING. SO, LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES COULD ENTER THE FORECAST OVER A LARGER AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND IS WORTH MONITORING IN FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. NBM GUIDANCE
PRODUCES A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO HAVE RUN-TO-RUN
INCONSISTENCIES REGARDING THE SURFACE PATTERN. SO, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER COULD LAST LONGER INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR NOW, EXPECT AVERAGE, FALL-LIKE WEATHER TO END THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR A WARMING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FRONT WILL
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE MID-SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. PROB30S REMAIN
AT JBR/MEM/MKL FOR -TSRA FROM MID MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE
BY 01Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PICKING UP AROUND 8-10 KTS TOMORROW ACROSS TERMINALS.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT TAME THROUGH
THURSDAY AND GULF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL ARRIVES WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL, AND WEST TENNESSEE.
A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY, BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER,
DRIER AIR INTO THE MID-SOUTH. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 -
25 MPH WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN
30 AND 40 PERCENT, BUT GUIDANCE MAY SHIFT VALUES LOWER AS WE
CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE WEEK. REGARDLESS, 1-HOUR AND 10-HOUR
FUELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT MOISTURE
CONTENT, WHICH COULD BE EXACERBATED BY MULTIPLE DAYS OF RECORD
HEAT AND LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL LIKELY BE MOST PROMINENT
IN AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WITHIN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA WHERE A COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO NO WETTING RAINS,
ELEVATED WINDS, AND DRY FUELS WILL OVERLAP. FOR NOW, WE ONLY
EXPECT THE NEED FOR A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FRIDAY AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CURRENTLY REMAIN ABOVE THE 25 PERCENT
NEEDED FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS.
20-FOOT WINDS WILL RELAX SATURDAY, BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP TO AT OR BELOW 30%, LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER BUT NOT QUITE AS SEVERE AS FRIDAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BRINGING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 40% TO END THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AEH
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