935
FXUS64 KMEG 201148
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
648 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
EACH DAY INTO THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
- PAST TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A BROAD JET STREAK REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, EXTENDING
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WEAKER BELT OF
SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE MID-SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHED A FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST,
WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 03Z.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~1000 J/KG MUCAPE, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST, POSING ONLY A
MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. RECENT
HRRR/RAP RUNS REDEVELOP STORMS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
AFTER 06Z ALONG AN AREA OF 925MB - 850MB CONVERGENCE OR WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS. HOWEVER, THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE CONSIDERING WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND A
DECREASE IN MUCAPE TO AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT STALLS DUE TO UPPER HEIGHT RISES WITH A STEADY DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDS AND REMNANT
SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOW
80S. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE, THE FRONT'S
INABILITY TO MEANINGFULLY CLEAR THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE TO REMAIN. THEREFORE, DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S, LEADING TO VERY MUGGY, HUMID CONDITIONS. THE
UPPER PROFILE WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE SAME PICTURE WITH MOIST-
ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND 1.8" - 2.0" PWATS THROUGHOUT
THE REGION, PRODUCING ENOUGH MUCAPE AND/OR MLCAPE FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEIGHT RISES
AND VERY LOW SHEAR WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT AT BAY, BUT
SCATTERED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
THIS PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY TO PERSIST AS ENSEMBLES HAVE CONVERGED
ON THE RIDGE AXIS NUDGING EAST OF THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR
MULTIPLE, WEAK SHORTWAVES TO PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH
90%+ PERCENTILE PWATS RESIDING THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND ALSO KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S. COVERAGE WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE UPPER FORCING AVAILABLE, WHICH APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED
FRIDAY AS A MORE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION. ENOUGH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MLCAPE WILL OVERLAP TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LOW-END SEVERE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS FEATURE WILL PASS
SATURDAY, LIKELY LEADING TO SOMEWHAT OF A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE, BUT RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY.
THROUGH SUNDAY, AN AREA OF 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EJECT FROM
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND TRAVEL NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH,
AMPLIFYING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTAIN A REGION OF 40+ KT SOUTHERLIES THAT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THIS FEATURE, THERE IS GROWING
CONFIDENCE IN AN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE WITHIN A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS. IF A BROAD WARM SECTOR CAN MAINTAIN ITS INSTABILITY
INTO THE AFTERNOON, ANOTHER MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS COULD MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER, CLOSED UPPER LOWS ARE VERY
OFTEN SUBJECT TO LARGE MODEL VARIABILITY AND CHANGES TO THIS
FORECAST ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS, BUT CURRENT TRENDS HAVE
POINTED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION. MODEL VARIABILITY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW ONLY GROWS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD TUESDAY, BUT THE BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LARGELY
REMAIN THE SAME WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTLINE AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THEREFORE,
RAINY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER STILL SEEMS ON THE TABLE NEXT TUESDAY
THAT COULD LAST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SHRAS WILL CONTINUE NEAR MEM, MKL, AND JBR THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
AT MEM AND MKL WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT TUP.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH NEAR TUP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF LIFR,
ESPECIALLY AT TUP. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
AMD NOT SKED AT TUP, DUE TO MISSING OBSERVATION SINCE 20/08Z.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40%. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AC3
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