489
FXUS64 KMEG 152348 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
648 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY,
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER,
PARTICULARLY TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MODERATE BY SUNDOWN FRIDAY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURED AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. A
FEW SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE VICINITY OF
A COLD FRONT. VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH WITH LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S.
ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS TO
BE TIED OR BROKEN. THIS PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END
AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS AND SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY
SPARSE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW FOR ANY LOCATION RECEIVING ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN AT BEST.
ELEVATED AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS DROPPING SUBSTANTIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE
ELEVATED WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 30-
35 PERCENT, GENERALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
DYERSBURG, TN TO OXFORD, MS, MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE ISSUANCE OF A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.
LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A DRY PATTERN PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION AS AN OMEGA BLOCK
SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. NEXT WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL TRANSITION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK FOR PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS THAT SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSTANT IN SPEED AND DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY. A POST-
FRONTAL MVFR DECK SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO
WETTING RAINFALL. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. POST-FRONTAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE ELEVATED WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 30-35 PERCENT, GENERALLY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DYERSBURG, TN TO OXFORD, MS, MAY RESULT
IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE ISSUANCE OF A
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AGAIN NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...PWB
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