092
FXUS64 KMEG 211110
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
610 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL BRING NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND.
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
SATURDAY'S FORECAST WILL LARGELY BE A REPEAT OF FRIDAY, THOUGH
JUST A TAD WARMER. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
DEAMPLIFY AND BECOME ALMOST ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND,
ALLOWING THE SURFACE FEATURES TO HAVE MORE OF A DOMINANT
INFLUENCE. FORECAST SURFACE ANALYSES DEPICT A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FL PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING
TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE MID-SOUTH. THIS RETURN FLOW
WILL MAXIMIZE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, COINCIDING WITH BEING ON THE
WARM SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE TWO FEATURES TRANSLATES TO RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH OVER
THE WEEKEND, A WHOPPING 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH. EACH OF OUR FOUR CLIMATE SITES ARE SLATED TO EITHER TIE OR
BREAK THEIR RECORD HIGHS (83 AT MEM, 82 AT MKL, 88 AT JBR, 83 AT
TUP) ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY'S HIGHS MAY ENCROACH ON RECORD
TERRITORY AS WELL, BUT SUNDAY IS REALLY THE SLAM DUNK.
DUE TO THE ZONAL ORIENTATION OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
EVENING, LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR
AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL. AS A RESULT, THE COLUMN WILL MOST LIKELY BE
DRY ENOUGH IN THE MIDLEVELS TO PROMOTE AMPLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION (CIN). THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THUNDER CHANCES AND POPS
ARE BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS (15%) DURING FROPA. AFTER THE
FRONT, TEMPERATURES VERY BRIEFLY PLUNGE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER WARMUP IS ON THE HORIZON AS QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT RETURNS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE
SETUP FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT MEM AND MKL DUE TO NO APPRECIABLE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CHANGES.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30% TO 40% RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 20FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 9 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
10 TO 15 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...ANS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page