866
FXUS64 KMEG 050523
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1123 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF
I-40 INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK,
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED HUMIDITY. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, FOCUSED NEAR A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND GOES WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS
PLACE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI BACK THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS. FURTHER EAST, A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER EAST
ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI EARLIER THIS EVENING. A WARM AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES BETWEEN 700-1000 J/KG MUCAPE,
MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND AROUND 30 KTS OF
SHEAR. SHORT-TERM MODELS AND CAMS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER PORTIONS OF EAST/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL,
AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
REMAINS VERY CONDITIONAL, WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PREDOMINANT
CONCERN, FOLLOWED BY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AS
SECONDARY THREATS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ON THURSDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM AND HUMID
SPRING-LIKE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SINCE SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AROUND 20 KTS,
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE UNORGANIZED PULSE-LIKE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS VERY LOW INTO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN UPSTREAM QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID-SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY RE-ABSORBED BY A NORTHERN STREAM MID-
LEVEL TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES INDICATE A LOW
CHANCE (20-30%) OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN
500 J/KG AND SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MONITORED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
CLIMATE RECORDS - HIGH/HIGH MIN
3/5/26 3/6/26
MEM 79 2022 81 2022
61 1961 66 2022
MKL 77 2022 80 2022
62 2024 67 2022
JBR 73 2024 76 2022
53 2004 66 2022
TUP 80 1974 85 2022
63 2024 63 2022
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
A FRONT WILL BRING SPORADIC, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO JBR INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MARGINAL LLWS WILL IMPACT JBR/MEM/MKL
OVERNIGHT. POP-UP SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT MEM/MKL BEGINNING
AROUND 14Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR PROB30S GIVEN THEIR SPORADIC NATURE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY ACROSS JBR/MEM/MKL. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
APPROACHES, A MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN, WITH
INTERMITTENT DROPS TO IFR, ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE
WITH MINRH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40%. OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS
(>15 MPH) COULD OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOONS EACH DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY, WITH
CHANCES INCREASING AREAWIDE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH
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