037  
FXUS64 KMEG 212328  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
528 PM CST MON JAN 21 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 303 PM CST MON JAN 21 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1037 MB  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES REGION,  
AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SUNNY TO  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM  
CST, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 30S AT  
MOST LOCATIONS. WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT  
CONCERN IN THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST ISSUANCE.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BEGIN  
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN  
UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS THEN INTO THE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A  
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN MOVE INTO THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN INCREASING  
WINDS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, IT  
APPEARS THAT WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AND A WIND  
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IF MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST AN  
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.  
 
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH  
THROUGH THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH ON  
WEDNESDAY. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL  
FOR SOME LOW LEVEL COLD ARCTIC AIR TO BEGIN MOVING IN BEFORE  
PRECIPITATION ENDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.  
TODAY'S 12Z MODEL RUN INDICATES RAIN MAY SWITCH TO FREEZING RAIN  
OR SLEET BEFORE ENDING. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO  
TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF ANY MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND SHOULD BE  
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST  
MAY BECOME NECESSARY. NONETHELESS, POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN  
AND/OR SLEET WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  
STAY TUNED...  
 
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS  
HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. 12Z  
LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL  
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED  
SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL BRING REINFORCEMENTS OF COLD AIR ACROSS  
THE MID-SOUTH ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS SOME WINTRY  
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN MODEL  
SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW AS MODEL TO MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES HAVE SHOWN  
PROBLEMS TIMING THESE FEATURES.  
 
CJC  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOWER  
CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST  
AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN STARTING BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING.  
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT  
BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
ARS  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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