239
FXUS64 KMEG 102359 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- A LEVEL 1/5 MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING REMAINING THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
- A LEVEL 2/5 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT ON
SATURDAY, WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-SOUTH NEAR NORMAL. AN INCOMING EASTERLY
WAVE BY MID-WEEK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A DECAYING MCS CONTINUES ITS ESE TRACK ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS OVER WEST
TENNESSEE, WITH A CONGEALING, COLD-POOL DOMINANT LINE NEAR THE
TN/MS BORDER PRODUCING 40-50 MPH WINDS. THIS COMPLEX MAY REACH
SEVERE THRESHOLDS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT
OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER WITHIN A FEW HOURS, FOLLOWED BY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE EVENING.
AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TONIGHT. WHILE THE 12Z HREF SUGGESTS AN
EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY, ANY
SOUTHWARD DEVIATION INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WOULD EXACERBATE
FLOODING. THE OBION RIVER IS CURRENTLY AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE;
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY TRIGGER A RISE TO MODERATE STAGE. ANY
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
SEVERE POTENTIAL, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND HEAT RISKS PERSIST FOR
SATURDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN CONDUCIVE WITH PWATS >
2 INCHES, AFTERNOON INSTABILITY OF 2000-3000 J/KG, AND 20-
25 KNOTS OF SHEAR. HREF/REFS GUIDANCE INDICATES STORM INITIATION
AS EARLY AS 1 PM AS AN MCV APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH
ACTIVITY CLEARING NORTH MISSISSIPPI AROUND MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING-PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE-
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) ENCOMPASSES
MOST OF THE AREA. HEAT INDICES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS AREAWIDE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE
LOWER 90S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY. DESPITE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MORNING RECOVERY FROM
RESIDUAL CONVECTION, A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) REMAINS IN
EFFECT. CONSECUTIVE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL MAY NECESSITATE AN
EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH.
THE EARLY-WEEK OUTLOOK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW LINGERING SOUTH OF A BROAD PLAINS RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER, SCATTERED CONVECTION, AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TSRA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE MIDSOUTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING. MKL RETAINS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF TSRA ON STATION, BUT THIS IS BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA
FOR THE TAF.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS TSRA TIMING ON SATURDAY. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON TIMING, BUT THERE IS SUFFICIENT
OVERLAP BETWEEN 18Z REFS ENSEMBLE AND HRRR DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TO SUGGEST HIGHEST TSRA PROBABILITIES MID TO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR JBR, MEM AND MKL. THESE STORMS WILL PRESENT A
HIGHER THAN NORMAL THREAT FOR STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS UPON
INITIAL PASSAGE. TSRA WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AT TUP AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
(7 PM CDT SATURDAY).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS
WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS COMFORTABLY ABOVE
40 PERCENT, WHILE GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL FURTHER
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL SPREAD RISK. DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
MAINTAINING FAVORABLE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS. GIVEN THE LACK OF
DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ARZ009.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ035-036-048-049-
058.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ007-010-011-020.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
054-055.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB
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