210
FXUS64 KMEG 170439
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1139 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
- A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER COLD DAY IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- A RETURN OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
THIS EVENING'S UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURES A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. WITH A 1029 MB ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CLEAR SKIES AND
THIS VERY COLD AIRMASS ARE RESULTING IN LATE EVENING TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 30S AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT WITH A FREEZE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS
IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY, WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER TO AREAS NORTH OF I-40 TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW (<20% CHANCE) DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
INDICATED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND
NON-IMPACTFUL.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODEL TRENDS STRONGLY SUPPORT WELL ABOVE NORMAL 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR MOST LOCATIONS REACHING 80 DEGREES OR
HIGHER THIS WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-6 KTS OVERNIGHT AND AVERAGE
BETWEEN 6-10 KTS ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO SUNDAY EVENING'S WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 20-30 PERCENT ON TUESDAY, AND RANGE
FROM 30-40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON
TUESDAY BUT INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 6-10 MPH OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CJC
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