300
FXUS64 KMEG 052338
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
638 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- SUMMER HEAT HAS RETURNED TO THE MID-SOUTH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 90S FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- AS HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE, HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEGINNING FRIDAY ACROSS
THE DELTA SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY AND OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SUMMER HEAT WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
THE CUTOFF LOW OVER GEORGIA IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AND LIFT
SLOWLY NORTH. UPPER RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(<10%) OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
BORDER OR ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ON THURSDAY AND
LIKELY REACH THOSE LEVELS EACH DAY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S. THE DELTA REGION SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS
WILL THREATEN TO HIT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY,
WITH MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH POTENTIALLY REACHING CRITERIA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SCHOOL IS BACK, BUT SUMMER IS NOT OVER. REMEMBER YOUR
HEAT SAFETY GUIDELINES LIKE STAYING HYDRATED, TAKING BREAKS WHEN
WORKING OUTSIDE, AND CHECKING THE BACK SEAT.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND BRING A LOW
CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AFTER THIS WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, AND THE UPPER
RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY SUNDAY, EXPECT A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL TREND SOUTHERLY TOMORROW,
GENERALLY 6KTS OR LESS AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE AIRSPACE VFR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40%, WITH
20 FT WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JDS
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