863
FXUS64 KMEG 241102
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
602 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A
WARMING TREND BEGINS MIDWEEK.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT LATE WEEK WILL BRING OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%)
OF SPRINKLES. THE PROFILE REMAINS QUITE DRY, SO EVEN THESE ARE A
LONG SHOT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS STALLED TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE MORNING, WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTY SW SURFACE
WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO RECORD
TERRITORY WITH A 40-70% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 85F.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT INITIALLY
HAS SOME SUPPORT AND MOISTURE WHILE CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY. AS
IT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE FRONT LOSES
ITS UPPER SUPPORT, AND IT WEAKENS RAPIDLY. AS A RESULT, THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF I-40, AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH ONLY A 30-40% CHANCE OF ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH ALONG THE KY/MO
BORDERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN SHARPLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
ROUGHLY 40-60% CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. AFTER THAT, IT IS
RINSE AND REPEAT, WITH A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 6-8 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, LEADING TO LESS OF A
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. BY MIDWEEK, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AS A WARMING TREND BEGINS, AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 35-45%. NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS FORECAST
OVER THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS
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