076
FXUS64 KMEG 160431
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1031 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
- FOLLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY, IN ADVANCE
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY, FOLLOWING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MILD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
WEEKEND, THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
MODERATING TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY STORY THROUGH
THURSDAY, FOLLOWING OUR RECENT 2-3 DAY ARCTIC COLD SNAP.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS THAT LIFTED FROM TX
INTO THE OZARKS LATE MONDAY WERE EVIDENCE OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL LIFT INTO
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OH AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, AS THIS UPPER TROUGH PASSES.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY, ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THESE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACCOMPANY SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, WITH LREF JOINT
PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR 200 J/KG CAPE AND 30 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEER.
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW THROUGH
THE MIDWEST, BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO
AT LEAST BE PARTIALLY BACKED BY A PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THIS AIRMASS WILL NONETHELESS BRING OUR
DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY DOWN BY ABOUT 15 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY.
MORNING LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S,
RESPECTIVELY. THE DRY AIR WILL WARM EFFICIENTLY UNDER FULL SUN-
ESPECIALLY WHEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL WARM TO THE 50S BY SUNDAY, AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT, MILD TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY NARROW
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES (FOR DECEMBER) APPEAR IN STORE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
PWB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TUESDAY BEFORE A CIRRUS SHIELD MOVES IN AFTER 00Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT
RANGE OVER MOST OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE TODAY.
THEREAFTER, MODERATE HUMIDITY OVER ARKANSAS WILL SPREAD THROUGH
ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CAD
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