857
FXUS64 KMEG 291108
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
608 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MANIFEST ON FRIDAY, BUT THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WILL BE SPLENDID AS HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
11PM RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE OVER THE MID-
SOUTH, CONSISTING OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS PLACES AROUND 1500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA, ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR OF 50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH AROUND
250 M2/S2. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, STORMS SHOULD MAINTAIN STRENGTH
AS THEY EXIT INTO MIDDLE TN AND ALABAMA. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN, ALONG WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF SPIN-UP
TORNADOES WITHIN ANY BREAKS THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. A TORNADO
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4AM WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST
TN, EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS, AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. IN ADDITION TO
SEVERE WEATHER, FLOODING IS BECOMING AN INCREASING THREAT WITH
RADAR ESTIMATING 6"/HR RAINFALL RATES. SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS AND FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. ADDITIONAL FLOOD
PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY AS STORMS CONTINUE SOUTHEAST. WE'VE RECEIVED
SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLOODING, MOST NOTABLY A SHUTDOWN OF HWY 51 IN
DESOTO COUNTY DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROADWAY. FLOODING REMAINS A
LEADING CAUSE OF WEATHER RELATED FATALITIES IN THE UNITED STATES,
SO AVOID CROSSING FLOODED ROADWAYS AND HEED WARNINGS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNRISE AS THE PARENT
SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CLEAR THE MID-SOUTH. BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S. ON THURSDAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE MID-SOUTH, ALLOWING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MANIFEST ON
FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER TEXAS. UP TO A HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT A LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT ON FRIDAY,
SO RAINFALL TOTALS MAY END UP BEING LOWER IF PRECIPITATION
STRUGGLES TO OVERCOME THIS FEATURE. REGARDLESS, LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS OF THE MID-SOUTH BY MIDDAY. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND COOL
WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS
A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES BY
WEDNESDAY.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AIRSPACE THROUGH MID-
MORNING, BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER NORTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF A FRONT
TODAY, GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
PAINTS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT TUP THIS EVENING, SO ADDED A
PROB30 SHRA GROUP.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD DUE TO
RECENT WETTING RAINS. MINRH WILL FALL TO AROUND 40 PERCENT RANGE
ON THURSDAY, BUT LIGHT 20FT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE CONCERNS AT BAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...ANS
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