241
FXUS64 KMEG 110421
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1121 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO A
LARGE PART OF THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, OFFERING
SOME MINOR HEAT AND DROUGHT RELIEF.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS, MAINTAINING DRY AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST THROUGHOUT THE MID-
SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40 AHEAD OF A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT. SHORT-TERM
MODELS SHOW THAT INSTABILITY MAY HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT,
HOVERING AROUND 1500- 2000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CONTINUED LIFT OVER THE SURFACE FRONT AND WEAK UPPER HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEREFORE SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND/OR MAINTENANCE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WEAK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE SEVERE THREAT RELATIVELY LOW WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
REMAINING THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD.
THE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID-
SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO EAST INTO KY. THEREFORE, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, LEADING TO
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 - 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH. CAMS THEN SHOW DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEKS'
ISOLATED TO NON-EXISTENT COVERAGE. WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
WEAK, LEADING TO THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD BEING POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS FROM HYBRID MICROBURSTS. ON THE OTHER HAND, PWATS
ARE FORECAST TO SURGE WELL ABOVE 2.00", WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
STORM MOTIONS BELOW 20 KNOTS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. LASTLY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MARGINALLY COOLER THAN
TODAY DUE TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND OUTFLOW FROM AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS COULD STILL BREACH 105 F HEAT INDICES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MS RIVER DELTA IN NORTHWEST MS AND EASTERN
AR.
THE FORECAST WILL WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGHING
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRIDAY'S THUNDERSTORMS GETS SWALLOWED UP BY
SYNOPTIC RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL ALREADY GET BACK UP ABOVE 95 FOR THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION WITH SIMILAR HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH MS AND WEST TN THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCAL RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, BUT POPS QUICKLY DROP TO NEAR ZERO SUNDAY, WHICH LASTS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, DANGEROUS
HEAT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAT HEADLINES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. SOME ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING
TO HINT AT A PATTERN CHANGE BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, THESE
MEMBERS ARE STILL TOO FEW IN NUMBER AND SHOW HIGH UNCERTAINTY.
SO, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SIGNS OF AN END TO THE CURRENT
HEAT WAVE, IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO SAY FOR SURE THAT THE BELLS
WILL BE TOLLING FOR THIS RIDGE, AND THE HEAT, LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
A WEAK FRONT IS STALLED JUST NORTH OF I-40 WITH SCATTERED SHRAS
AND TSRAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SKIRT
JBR OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT JBR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING INVOF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN SHRAS/TSRAS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON HAS INCREASED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
DEEP MOISTURE, WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND STRONG SURFACE
HEATING. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF TSRAS AND GENERALLY
NE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT (JBR), VARIABLE ALONG THE FRONT
(MEM, MKL), AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT (TUP).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AREA-WIDE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE FORECAST AS
TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION ALONGSIDE LIGHT
20 FOOT WINDS. ADDITIONAL WETTING RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
SATURDAY FROM DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS. FOG COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...SJM
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