377
FXUS64 KMEG 191144
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
644 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST DAILY
BEGINNING TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE WITH A TROUGH EJECTING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
A BROAD AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLIES AND UPPER RIDGING HAS ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO ECLIPSE 90 F MONDAY. CONVECTION AND THE
STRENGTHENING OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL KICK
THE FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE TIME TO REACH BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AGAIN
BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES, WHICH IS PROGGED TO OCCUR THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF MLCAPE (2500 - 3000 J/KG) WILL BE IN
PLACE BY EARLY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THE
UPPER TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WILL HAVE EJECTED INTO CANADA BY THIS
POINT, LEAVING ONLY PALTRY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND FORCING WITH
LESS THAN 25 KTS. SO, STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE, ESPECIALLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL IMPINGE
ON THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BUT THE STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 500 MB, LEAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON
THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR. REGARDLESS, CURRENT HRRR GUIDANCE DOES
DISPLAY ~900 J/KG DCAPE, SUPPORTING A MARGINAL/SLIGHT THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE HAIL THREAT WILL
BE MUTED DUE TO THE WEAK SHEAR AND SUB-OPTIMAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH LITTLE TO NO EXPECTATION FOR TORNADOES GIVEN NEAR-ZERO
SRH.
ANY TROUGHING WILL DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS QUICKLY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN
STALL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE REGION, WASHING OUT AS UPPER RIDGING
RETURNS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IN RESPONSE TO CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL, BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE MADE A
SIGNIFICANT DENT ON THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE THAT HAS PLAGUED US
SINCE LAST WEEKEND, KEEPING ELEVATED RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT LREF GUIDANCE,
THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT REGARDING QPF THAT THE PROBABILITY OF
3"+ OF RAINFALL EXCEEDS 50% THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS AT A LOW-AMPLITUDE, BUT MODELS (NAM/GFS/ECMWF)
GRADUALLY INCREASE LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WITH A FEW, SMALLER
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. IF THESE FEATURES ARE ABLE TO REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST COME WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, LOW-END SEVERE
CHANCES COULD MATERIALIZE WITH HIGHER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. IN
SUMMARY, A COOLER, RAINIER FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER DEPENDING
ON HOW THE UPPER PATTERN SHAKES OUT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF SHRAS AND TSRAS REMAINS IN THE 30 TO
60 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING AT ALL SITES. A
DECAYING COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING
AND BECOMING SCATTERED AT JBR, MEM, AND MKL. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING NE ALONG IT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SITES. TCF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA WILL AFFECT MEM, MKL, AND JBR, MAINLY AFTER 20/03Z.
THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL SITES, ESPECIALLY NEAR WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETS UP. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT LINGERING SHRAS WILL
PERSIST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40%. WETTING
RAINS WILL RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY, LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AC3
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