752
FXUS64 KMEG 090352
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1052 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR, WITH A THREAT FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL (UP TO 2 INCHES) AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH SEVERE STORM
CHANCES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING 40 KT SPEED MAX WILL
APPROACH THE MID-SOUTH TODAY, ALLOWING LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN
ABOVE 7 C/KM. THE LATEST CAMS DEPICT STORMS FIRING NEAR THE ARK-
LA-TEX BY MIDDAY AND PUSHING EASTWARD. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY,
THE MID-SOUTH WILL HOUSE AROUND 750 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND BULK SHEAR
IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. SMALL, ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WILL IMPACT THE
MID-SOUTH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND POSE A DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL THREAT. A FEW OF THE CAMS BRING SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS INTO THE MID-SOUTH. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. FORTUNATELY, THE SEVERE WEATHER
WINDOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO A CLOSE AFTER SUNSET WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW EJECTS OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY. A MESSY
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL EMERGE AT THIS TIME AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW OPENS UP AND PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS BY MIDDAY AS
THESE FEATURES INTERACT. A LARGE WARM SECTOR WILL STRETCH FROM
TEXAS TO THE MIDWEST WITH STORMS FIRING OUT AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE FRONT. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY, THOUGH A ROGUE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES TREK EAST. KINEMATICS WILL BE PLENTIFUL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SUGGESTING ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, ONGOING MORNING SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A TYPICAL HIGH SHEAR, LOW
CAPE ENVIRONMENT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES EXIST IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI, WHERE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN HOW
MODELS ARE TRENDING, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER TRIMMED THE SLIGHT RISK BACK IN LATER
ISSUANCES.
BY THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE MID-
SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID-MORNING WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY UNDERNEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WOULD BRING OUR NEXT SHOT OF RAIN, BUT
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT DETAILS. STAY TUNED.
ANS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AFTER 12Z,
TOWARD DAYBREAK, PRECEDED BY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUST POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AT JBR, MEM AND MKL FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONCURRENTLY, ISOLATED SHRA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN THE STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.
TSRA POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. GREATEST TSRA COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED AT TUP, THEN MEM, MKL AND JBR - IN THAT ORDER. GIVEN THE
COLD AIR ALOFT, LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS, BUT
HAIL WILL BE MOST PROBABLE AT TUP.
TUP TAF WILL GO TO AMD NOT SKED AFTER EVENING TWR CLOSURE, DUE TO
MISSING WEATHER OBSERVATION ELEMENTS IN THE ASOS-GENERATED METAR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL OCCUR EACH DAY THIS
WEEK. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL INCREASE FUEL
MOISTURE AND MAINTAIN ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY, LIMITING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
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