625  
FXUS64 KMEG 050921  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
321 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2024  
   
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2024  
 
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH  
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OUR  
AREA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION. A BRIEF LULL IN  
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OVER THE MID-SOUTH WEDNESDAY BEFORE  
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INCREASES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE  
ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY BRINGING CALM, DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH  
FRIDAY BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S OVER THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST TUE MAR 5 2024  
 
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION, PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD  
OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL, UPPER-LEVEL,  
AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS REMAIN OVER THE AREA. CURRENT  
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH MOSTLY LIGHT  
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG COULD FALL OVER  
THE LOW LYING RIVER AREAS AS WE HEAD A LITTLE CLOSER TO SUNRISE,  
HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY NEGATE FOG  
FORMATION THIS MORNING.  
 
A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
THROUGH THE WESTERN OZARKS, AND SEVERAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURES  
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. AS THIS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE MID-  
SOUTH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD  
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST  
ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI REMAIN UNDER A  
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF  
DAMAGING WIND AND SMALL HAIL. FORECAST CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000  
J/KG WITH AROUND 35 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS COULD FORM AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, THOUGH WE  
ARE EXPECTING MAINLY SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  
 
BY TOMORROW MORNING, THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST, PAST OUR AREA, AS  
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FALLS OVER OUR AREA RESULTING IN DRY,  
PLEASANT WEDNESDAY. THIS LULL IN PRECIPITATION WILL NOT LAST LONG  
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER ONTARIO AND A SURFACE LOW SETS  
UP OVER MISSOURI WITH AN ATTACHED REINFORCING FRONT. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FALL OVER THE MID-SOUTH ONCE AGAIN AND REMAIN  
THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WARM AIR  
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO EXTRA LIFT AS THIS REINFORCING FRONT PUSHES  
PAST THE MID-SOUTH.  
 
THE SPC HAS A 15% HATCHED AREA TO OUR SOUTH BOTH FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY, THOUGH SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE THIS FAR  
NORTH. A FEW SUB-SEVERE TO SEVERE AREAS OF CONVECTION CAN NOT BE  
RULED OUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THIS LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVES  
THROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST QPF VALUES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS RANGE  
BETWEEN 1.5-3", GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY,  
DRYING US OUT AND CREATING A PLEASANT START TO NEXT WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTS WILL DECREASE  
SLIGHTLY FROM THE 60S AND 70S TO THE 50S AND 60S. THE 8-10 DAY CPC  
OUTLOOK HAS US SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO MID MARCH.  
 
AEH  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
KNQA/KGWX RADAR SHOWS MIDLEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OVER NORTH MS,  
LIFTING EAST. OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THIS  
FEATURE, OTHER THAN INCREASING MVFR CHANCES AROUND SUNRISE.  
 
TSRA SHOULD BE TIMED TO PEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING, FOCUSED  
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. TSRA WILL LIKELY EXTEND WELL  
INTO THE EVENING OVER NORTH MS, AIDED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH AND LIKELY FOCUSED ALONG A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
 
JBR TAF REMAINS AMD NOT SKED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO MISSING  
METAR DATA.  
 
PWB  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH  
AVIATION...PWB  
 
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