671
FXUS64 KMEG 180436
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1136 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 105 AND 108 F. THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE
COOLING OR AIR CONDITIONING WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.
- HIGH HEAT WILL RAMP UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- MANY AREAS WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER, ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY AS
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
SATURDAY. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THE ADVISORY, THERE IS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH
TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH READINGS OF 105 F TO 108 F
EXPECTED WITHIN THE ADVISORY ZONE.
NBM SATURDAY AFTERNOON POPS WERE INCREASED TO THE SLIGHT RANGE
(15-24 PERCENT) TO ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AC3
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
A HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN PLAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 70S AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BROADENS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. THE LATEST KNQA RADAR SWEEP INDICATES A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE AGITATED CU IS WITNESSED AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXISTS ALONG AN UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST. MOVING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,WE COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN POP-UP SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING, MAINLY
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. OTHERWISE, MUCH OF
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND HUMID TODAY.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LOW, COLOCATED WITH A
POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED BROADENING RIDGE WILL PLACE US INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM EACH
DAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE IN THIS REGIME KEEPING OUR
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED
BEGINNING SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL REGIME WILL ALSO PROMOTE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AGAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
THE TENNESSEE RIVER, WITH LIFT FROM EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS. THOUGH A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH FORECAST PWATS RANGE BETWEEN 1.9-2.1", SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, WE'RE NOT LOOKING AT
PROLIFIC RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH AREAWIDE.
MOVING PAST THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPING THE
WARMING TREND IN PLACE, FURTHER DRYING US OUT, AND INCREASING
HIGHS INTO THE MID AND POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S. TUESDAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGHS SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 90S AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE MID-SOUTH. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE WARRANTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HEAT INDICES SOAR AT OR
ABOVE 105 F. HEATRISK IS PINGING ON 50-70% CHANCE OF MAJOR+
(LEVEL 3/5) FOR MONDAY AND 70-90% FOR TUESDAY. IT WILL BE HOT.
BY MIDWEEK, HOWEVER, THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. GEFS
AND GEPS DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST
CONUS FROM QUEBEC ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RETROGRADE
WEST AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHERE THE ENS WANTS TO KEEP THIS
UPPER LOW FURTHER NORTH AND IN TURN, KEEPING THE RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IF THE GEFS AND GEPS DEPICTION IS CORRECT, A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
EDGING CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND POTENTIAL
UPPER 80S BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, IF THE ENS
SOLUTION IS CORRECT, WE'RE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE
MID 90S. WE'RE HOPING FOR THE COOLER SOLUTION. FOR NOW, KEEP AN
EYE ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT ALL SITES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-SHRAS AND -TSRAS EXISTS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON; A PROB30 GROUP
WAS ADDED FOR JBR AND MKL. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS AMPLE MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE MID-SOUTH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WEEK AS 20 FT WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ007-010-011-
020.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...AC3
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