987
FXUS64 KMEG 112339 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
639 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- A FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH NORTH OF I-40
ON MONDAY MORNING, AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
12Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
TEXAS WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH BISECTING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
LOWER MICHIGAN THEN BACK ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR IN MISSOURI AND
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. A WARM AND MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH LATE MORNING
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S.
REGIONAL WSR-88D TRENDS THUS FAR HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TENNESSEE BACK INTO EAST
ARKANSAS. SOME ISOLATED INTENSIFICATION HAS BEGUN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS CONVECTION HAS MOVED
INTO A SLIGHTLY BETTER CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS YIELDS 1000-1500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE, 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS, AND 0-1 KM, 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES AROUND 150 M2/S2. LATEST CAMS SUGGEST THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE OVER AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI, WHERE DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
SECONDARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A
VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A WEAK TORNADO ALONG A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END INTO THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK TO THE MID-SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER
40S. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK INTO THE 70S FOR SATURDAY.
LATEST LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NBM
GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY LOW CHANCE (<10%) FOR BRIEF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK END OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY OCCURRING
IS VERY LOW. THIS LOW CHANCE MAY BE REMOVED IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS IF
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE
NBM CONSENSUS.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BE THE VERY
COLD AIR EXPECTED. AREAS NORTH OF I-40 WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
30S SUNDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH (>70% CHANCE) FOR A
FREEZE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MID-SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MID-
LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
TSRA POTENTIAL IS WANING AT TUP, LEAVING PRIMARILY STRATIFORM
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS
EVIDENT ON KNQA RADAR BETWEEN NQA AND MEM, HEADED SOUTH. INITIAL
GUSTS TO 30KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BASED ON UPSTREAM METARS.
POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE FUEL ALTERNATE
THRESHOLD AS THE FRONTAL DEPTH INCREASES. BY 00Z FRIDAY, THE
BACKING SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH MEM,
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FORECAST FOR THE THURSDAY EVENING MEM
INBOUND PUSH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 30-40% THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TODAY'S RAINFALL WILL INCREASE FUEL MOISTURE AND MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...PWB
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