001
FXUS64 KMEG 261726
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1226 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BRINGING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
THESE STORMS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
- DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL PREVAIL IN THE UPPER 90S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
SOMEWHAT OF AN ACTIVE MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-
40 CORRIDOR WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED WITH CIN STILL PRESENT AFTER THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE COMPLEX ITSELF. SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS THE DELTA REGION, WHICH WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIALIZE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND ESPECIALLY INTO NORTH
MS. AROUND THIS SAME TIMEFRAME, AN ADDITIONAL COMPLEX OF STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL VARIABLES AT PLAY,
INCLUDING GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE TO NO SHEAR
AVAILABLE. THERE WILL GENERALLY BE > 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH
DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG, SO SOME INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND SUB-SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN TIMING
FOR THIS THREAT TO MATERIALIZE WOULD GENERALLY BE FROM 3 PM TO
11 PM. MUCH OF THE CURRENT CAM GUIDANCE HAS THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY
WANING FOLLOWING SUNSET, WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH GENERALLY LOW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AND ANY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY, DO
EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.
INTO THURSDAY, THE FORECAST WILL BECOME LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW
SOUTH THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPLEX OF STORMS PROGRESSES OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY, SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT NECESSARILY BE RULED OUT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPS. THE GENERAL THINKING AT
THIS POINT IS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP
MUCH OF ANY ACTIVITY OUT OF THE MID-SOUTH, BUT WILL LEAVE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, CLEARING
AREAWIDE IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SPANNING
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE PLAINS, SHIFTING OVER THE AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN TO EMERGE WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY RETURNING TO ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MODERATED
OVER THIS SAME PERIOD, SO HEAT HEADLINES MAY NOT NECESSARILY BE
NEEDED DESPITE THE MID TO UPPER 90 HIGH TEMPERATURES. NEARING THE
END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, THERE REALLY IS NO INDICATION
OF BREAKING OUT OF THIS PATTERN. FOR THIS RECENT, EXPECT DRY AND
HOT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH LATE EVENING. GIVEN LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE, PROB30 GROUPS WERE MAINTAINED AT ALL SITES. FOR MEM,
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TS NEAR THE TERMINAL IS WITHIN THE 00Z
TO 04Z TIMEFRAME. OVERNIGHT, FOG IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE WITH THE GREATEST VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LIKELY AT TUP
AND MKL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 40%.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
TOMORROW. WITH LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT, THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS COULD FALL INTO THE 30% TO 40% RANGE WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...ANS
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