400
FXUS64 KMEG 291727
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1127 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
- TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
- CHILLY MORNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK, BUT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S BEYOND
MID-WEEK.
- SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY A 15 TO 25
PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT'S
PARENT LOW IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH WAS SO STRONG THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL STRETCHING BACK AS FAR INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. STILL BEING AFFECTED BY THIS GRADIENT IN THE MID-SOUTH, BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BRINGING THE EFFECTS OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS TO
THE FOREFRONT. AS OF 11 AM, WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE REGION STILL
RESIDE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS AIR TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT, BUT ELEVATED WINDS MAY HINDER
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE COLDEST REASONABLE
LOW TEMPERATURES (90TH PERCENTILE) FOR TUESDAY IS ONLY A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER, SO THE HIGHER WINDS SHOULD KEEP US WELL MIXED. THE
HIGHER WINDS HOWEVER WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TEENS AND NEAR 20
DEGREES. IF WINDS OVER PERFORM, A FEW AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE, NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL HAVE A
35% CHANCE OR LESS OF EXPERIENCING SINGLE-DIGIT APPARENT
TEMPERATURES.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST BY WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. SLIGHT WARMUP WILL OCCUR DAILY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT MORNINGS WILL REMAIN COOL. DIURNAL
HEATING AND WIND TRENDS WILL BE THE DRIVERS OF A BENIGN WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY.
ON THURSDAY, WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AND WARMER, MOISTER
AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SIGNIFICANTLY
PLUMMETED DEW POINTS AND VERY DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THEN.
SATURATION WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME, WHICH APPEARS TO BE A LEADING
FACTOR IN THE MODEL DISCREPANCY FOR A SYSTEMS APPROACH ON FRIDAY.
THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE THE GFS AS IT WANTS TO
SURGE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE INTO THE MS DELTA BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE MODEST MOISTURE (DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 50S) WITH MID 60S HIGH TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE
DISCREPANCIES, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF A WET START TO THE
WEEKEND. LREF PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS REMAIN
OUT OF THE MEMPHIS CWA AND ARE LOW (LESS THAN 10%) AS IT GETS
CLOSE TO THE MID-SOUTH IN PROXIMITY. NONETHELESS, PREPARE FOR
SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE (15-20%) OF A
THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DNM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING CONTINUED VFR THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LAMP AND HRRR-BASED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 1-3KT INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS IN THE 04-07Z PERIOD, WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO
20KT POSSIBLE. FL020 WIND PROGS SHOW NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
WIND SPEEDS DURING THAT PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, NO CHANGES FROM THE
CURRENT TAFS ARE PLANNED.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 30 PERCENT AND 40 PERCENT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG 20 FT WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WETTING RAIN CONDITIONS WERE BROUGHT TO THE AREA LAST
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD HINDER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL MOISTURE IS
ABLE TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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