026
FXUS64 KMEG 231203
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
703 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MAY BEGIN TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
A PLEASANT OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH WITH SOME CLOUDINESS GENERALLY ACROSS WEST TN.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S, WHICH IS CERTAINLY WELCOME AFTER THE PAST MONTH AND A HALF.
AS FAR AS RECORDS GO, MEMPHIS DID "ONLY" REACH 89 DEGREES TODAY,
WHICH MEANS OUR STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE 90 DEGREE DAYS OFFICIALLY
CAME TO AN END WITH 49 DAYS IN A ROW. INTO WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD JUST TO OUR WEST, KEEPING THE
MID-SOUTH IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S, MAYBE WITH AN OCCASIONAL 90 DEGREE READING IN
MISSISSIPPI, THIS WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE END OF SEPTEMBER.
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN, ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THROUGH THIS SAME TIME FRAME, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE UPWARD A FEW DEGREES,
GENERALLY BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. AS WE LOOK TOWARDS
THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
HINT AT A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
SOMEWHERE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS, THIS APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE STRONGER SYSTEMS WE HAVE
SEEN AND COULD FINALLY USHER IN TRUE, FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS. THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME AND UNCERTAINTY, BUT SOME TRUE FALL-LIKE
WEATHER COULD BE ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
AN EXPANSIVE MVFR CEILING DECK WITH EMBEDDED IFR CONDITIONS
PERSISTS ACROSS MEM, MKL, AND TUP THIS MORNING. SATELLITE TRENDS
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 17-
18Z BEFORE BRIEFLY LIFTING. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
RE-BUILDING A STRATO-CU CEILING DECK 1-2 HOURS AFTER SUNSET,
INITIALLY AT MEM AND MKL, WITH A SLIGHT DELAY AT JBR AND TUP FROM
THE NORTHEAST. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING PER LATEST
RAP GUIDANCE.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING AT OR
ABOVE 40% THROUGH FRIDAY. EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH VALUES FALLING BELOW 40%. SOME 20FT
WINDS MAY EXCEED 10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...AC3
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page