461
FXUS64 KMEG 312327
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AS HIGH AS 105 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TODAY,
WARRANTING A HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8PM.
- INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW WITH A POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S. BY
MID-WEEK, WE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL WITH POTENTIAL
HEAT ADVISORIES ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
COOLER DEWPOINTS (READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S)
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN LEADING TO A RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND
WESTERN NORTH MISSISSIPPI, WHERE PESKY MID 70 DEWPOINTS REMAIN,
ARE UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 109F EXPECTED
THROUGH 8PM. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AS A WARM FRONT,
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS, LIFTS NORTH.
THE LATEST KNQA RADAR SWEEP INDICATES A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. AS WE EDGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
INCREASE. A WINDOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OPEN UP AS A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO KICK IN. AS THIS
JET KICKS IN, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 1700 J/KG OF
SBCAPE, 20-25 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, DCAPE OF AROUND 500, AND
MID, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.8 C/KM, AND SLIGHTLY CURVED
HODOGRAPHS. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD HAVE ENOUGH UPSCALE GROWTH TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADO
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOVING CLOSER TO SUNSET, A
SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST,
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
TROUGH WILL ALSO EJECT A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL FORM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS PWATS BEGIN TO SURGE TO NEAR THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, 2.2-2.5". AS WE
MOVE A FEW HOURS PAST SUNSET, CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LOOKS TO
INCREASE, LIKELY CUTTING OFF OUR WINDOW FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THOUGH, WITH SURGING PWATS WE MAY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
GREATEST THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER, WILL LINGER
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PUSHES INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THOUGH, LARGELY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL FALL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S TO LOW
90S.
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE LATE
SEPTEMBER AS OPPOSED TO EARLY AUGUST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO EXIST ON
SUNDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE, THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. MONDAY WILL BE A NEAR RINSE AND REPEAT OF
SUNDAY, JUST A TAD WARMER AS NEARLY NORTH FLOW BUILDS IN ALOFT.
PUSHING PAST MONDAY, WE'RE LOOKING LARGELY DRY AND WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
BROADEN EAST. THOUGH DEWPOINTS AREN'T EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE
UPPER 70S, THEY COULD TEETER INTO THE MID 70S, POTENTIALLY
WARRANTING HEAT ADVISORIES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. ENJOY THE
COOLER START TO AUGUST WHILE IT LASTS.
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE MS, WITH
IMPACTS AT TUP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN ANY
ACTIVITY, BEFORE AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT JBR FOR A PERIOD
AROUND TO AFTER 05Z, WITH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS
THEREAFTER. MEM/MKL COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SHRA OVERNIGHT, BUT
TSRA CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR
IF THERE ARE ANY DROPS OVERNIGHT BY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH A
NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT TO W/NW AND WIND SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 10 TO
15 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL MITIGATE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ035-048-049-058.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ007-010>012-020-
021.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA
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