192
FXUS64 KMEG 230503
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1103 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S, WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE
60S BY MIDWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES (60% CHANCE OR GREATER) WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS
VERY LOW AT LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
ALL IS CLEAR AND MOSTLY CALM IN THE WAKE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
WITH RESIDUAL CAA ALONG MILD NW WINDS, EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE ONE
OF THE CHILLIEST NIGHTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY IN THE MID 30S AND WILL CONTINUE DROPPING INTO THE LOW
20S AND TEENS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS LEFT OVER FROM THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PUT AN UNPLEASANT BITE ON THE WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT, FEELING MORE LIKE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BRISK LATE WINTER DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
BARELY CLIMBING OUT OF THE 30S. THOUGH TECHNICALLY COLDER ON
TUESDAY MORNING, CALM WINDS WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT WIND CHILL AND THE "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE MID TEENS ON TUESDAY.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
AND KICKS OFF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. LREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH TRANSLATES TO WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MID-SOUTH DUE TO ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR BEING ADVECTED VIA
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S (10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) STARTING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST SURFACE ANALYSES DEPICT A LARGE COLD FRONT SWINGING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. WITH HOW DRY THE CURRENT ARCTIC AIR MASS IS,
IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THE COLUMN WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO MOISTEN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
VERY LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO TAP INTO. IT LOOKS LIKE A WELL-SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT, BUT THERE'S JUST NOT ENOUGH FUEL TO GET THINGS
GOING. JOINT PROBABILITIES OF CAPE > 250 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR >
30 KTS ARE LESS THAN 10% AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY, WHICH SQUASHES ANY
INKLINGS OF SEVERE WEATHER. DUE TO THE PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THIS
FRONT, TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO TAKE MUCH OF A PLUNGE
BEHIND IT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK STILL MAINTAINS
AT LEAST A 60% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 6-
10 DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (>90%) IN VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 8-12 KTS TONIGHT, AND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
19-23 KTS TOMORROW. AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
VERY DRY AND COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25-30% RANGE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND
ADVECTS GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY.
WETTING RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 80% ON THURSDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...JDS
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