058
FXUS64 KMEG 181131
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ARE IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI INTO FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, LEVEL 1 OF 5,
ACROSS ALL OF THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING
WIND IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
- THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE MID-SOUTH SITS BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR AND A COLD FRONT
TO THE NORTH. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR, AND THE AIRMASS IS MUCH
MORE HUMID THAN 24 HOURS AGO, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S
AREAWIDE. THE REMNANTS OF TS ARTHUR WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN INTO ALABAMA BY AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO THE MID-SOUTH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. MEANWHILE, THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL PRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MOST OF THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS ARTHUR WILL FALL ON THURSDAY
AND REMAIN SOUTH OF I-40, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
ARTHUR'S REMNANTS WILL PRODUCE PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE, EVIDENCED
BY 700 MB WARMING AND SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ON RECENT CAMS. BY
AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND SAG SOUTHWARD. THE
PARAMETER SPACE IS QUITE MARGINAL WITH DECENT INSTABILITY BUT
VERY WEAK SHEAR UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING. BY THE TIME THE STRONGER
SHEAR ARRIVES, THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING OCCURS. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG WITH A STRONG
STORM OR TWO.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD, WITH 1-2 INCHES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, EXPECT
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH, THOUGH ANY ORGANIZED STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
GIVEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES, RAINFALL
RATES MAY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK,
PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY MODULATED BY
DAYTIME HEATING, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY DRIVE MORE COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THAT FRONT
WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH,
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SO ANY STORMS MAY FEATURE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS NEAR OR JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL. OVER THE
NEXT WEEK, DRIER AIR MAY OCCASIONALLY WORK INTO NORTHERN AREAS OF
THE MID-SOUTH BEHIND EACH OF THESE COLD FRONTS, BUT FOR THE MOST
PART, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AT TUP. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AND TIMING REMAINS LOW (AROUND 30%) DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THUS, THE PROB30S HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AT MEM, MKL,
AND JBR. MVFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH TUP
POTENTIALLY DETERIORATING TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS BETWEEN 6 TO 10 KTS WILL GRADUALLY VEER N/NE TONIGHT BEHIND
A COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO RECENT WETTING RAINS AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CJC
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