748
FXUS64 KMEG 162322
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
- HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LITTLE
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE
MID-SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDERNEATH A 600 DAM RIDGE WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. STARTING
THURSDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FLORIDA. DESPITE THE WESTERLY MOVEMENT,
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS HEAT,
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS ARE AT THE GREATEST RISK FOR DEVELOPING
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. REMEMBER TO REGULARLY CHECK ON NEIGHBORS
AND ENSURE AMPLE HYDRATION OVER THE COMING DAYS.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING TO THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE MID-SOUTH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE, BUT WE ARE STILL NOT ANTICIPATING A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE A FEW
DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGHS ARE
FAVORED THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
ANS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. WINDS GENERALLY 8 KNOTS OR LESS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE
OVER THE AIRSPACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW, HINTING AT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSISTING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AMIDST NEAR RECORD HEAT EACH DAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RECOVERY EACH NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO AS 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH. NO FOG
CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...DNM
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