502
FXUS64 KMEG 061121
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
621 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, DUE TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. EXERCISE CAUTION AND ADHERE TO LOCAL BURN
BANS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
- MOISTURE FROM A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF MAY BRING
RAIN TO THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN REGION OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL EXTEND INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY, WHILE RELATIVELY
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO
THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH LATE WEEK, RESULTING IN NO
RAINFALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THROUGH FRIDAY, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REMAIN LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WILDLAND
FIRE DANGER. FOR THE DAYS 1-3, FORECAST DEWPOINTS WERE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED TOWARD CONSSHORT GUIDANCE, WITH MINOR INPUT FROM THE
NBM.
DESPITE LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO NORTH
MS LATE TONIGHT, THEN STALL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY IN
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHALLOW HUMID LAYER WILL MIX OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE WEEKEND, CURRENT ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON INVEST 92L
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. LATEST NHC GUIDANCE PLACES AN
80 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. 18Z/00Z GLOBAL MODELS AND LATEST TROPICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE TRACKS SHOW MODERATELY IMPROVED CONSENSUS, WHICH LIFTS
THE SYSTEM TO THE LA/MS COAST, FOLLOWED BY A NORTH/NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT THEREAFTER. AT THIS EARLY TIME, THE NBM CHANCE POPS FOR
THE WEEKEND APPEAR ON TRACK FOR THE MIDSOUTH. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST OFFICIAL NHC GUIDANCE REGARDING INVEST 92L.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
MAINLY VFR AND LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS) THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH MS TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD RESULT
IN PATCHY FOG IN PORTIONS OF WEST TN, MAINLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER, AND NORTHEAST MS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY, ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT 20-FOOT WINDS.
ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
FRIDAY, A BRIEF UPTICK IN HUMIDITY WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF FOG
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING A CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS TO THE
MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS
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