339
FXUS64 KMEG 010344
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1044 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 955 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
- A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE 80S. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(20-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
CALMER WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS ALOFT FROM ONGOING
CANADIAN WILDFIRES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED SO FAR.
THEREFORE, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW MOST GUIDANCE
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 80 DEGREES. HRRR GUIDANCE BRINGS PERIODIC
AREAS OF SMOKE THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW
WHICH WOULD KEEP SIMILARLY HAZY, SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
MORNING WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE (20-30% CHANCE) ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE LATER ON IN THE DAY ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR. ALTHOUGH MLCAPE WILL BE ABOVE 1000
J/KG, LIMITED SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE HAZARDS AT BAY WITH
STRONG WINDS BEING THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD WITH STRONGER STORMS.
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INCREASING IN RESPONSE AND A DRY FORECAST. BY
TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THURSDAY. A
FEW, WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH WITHIN THIS
REGIME STARTING THURSDAY THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING QPF INTO THE MIDSOUTH
STARTING THURSDAY, LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FROM THIS FEATURE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SURFACE
HEATING, ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT IS STILL TO
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME THATS TO INCONSISTENCIES IN THE EVOLUTION
OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW. DEPENDING ON HOW SURFACE FEATURES PLAY OUT,
THIS FORECAST COULD LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION COULD BRING A COLD FRONT OR
SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, EATING AWAY AT OUR RAIN CHANCES.
REGARDLESS, A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN APPEARS ON THE WAY TO END THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
THERE ARE A COUPLE DECAYING MCSS THAT WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN TO
THE AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. POINT SOUNDINGS FOR MEM AND
THE SURROUNDING TAF SITES DEPICT RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE
MIDLEVELS, WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY THE CAMS QUICKLY DROPPING
ANY PRECIP OFF IN THE MID MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY BEFORE
ANYTHING REACHES MEM. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SECONDARY MCS MAY HOLD
TOGETHER OVER MKL AFTER 00Z MON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW IN
THIS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
CAD
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CAD
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