976
FXUS64 KMEG 091650
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1150 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
- PLEASANT, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS,
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE MID-SOUTH, WITH
CURRENT READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING, WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS WE REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN SEVERAL VERY WARM AND DRY DAYS ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S, OR 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES MAY
REACH 90 DEGREES, AND NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS A 15% TO 30% PROBABILITY
OF THIS OCCURRING BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND
ALLOW A DEEPENING TROUGH TO PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
COOL AND DRY CONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
CONTINUED VFR TO MID-SOUTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, EXHIBITING HIGHEST SPEEDS (AROUND
10KT) THIS AFTERNOON.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 40%,
AND LIGHT 20-FOOT WINDS. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND RH VALUES DIP BELOW 40% NEXT WEEK, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. NO RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS TREND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB
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