721
FXUS64 KMEG 211123
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED MARGINAL RISK
(1 OUT OF 5) THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID
80S.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A WARM AND HUMID DAY WILL IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS WITHIN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO BRIEFLY
REACH HEAT INDICES OF 105. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
IS LOW DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL MANIFEST IN THE LATE
EVENING HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES MISSOURI, KICKING
OFF AN MCS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST SUITE OF
CAMS IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STORMS MOVING INTO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AND DECREASING SURFACE INSTABILITY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
DISCOURAGE UPSCALE STORM GROWTH, MEANING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
THUS, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL MANIFEST ON MONDAY AS THE
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY CONTINUES SOUTH. DAYTIME HEATING, ALONG
WITH THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AIR MASS, WILL PRODUCE INCREASED
INSTABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
ANY STORMS THAT LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO STRENGTHEN, POSING MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
THE MID-SOUTH WILL SIT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IMPACTING THE REGION. DAILY
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AT THIS TIME WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL SLIGHTLY CHANGE AS A MORE DEFINED
SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
PLACES AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL FALLING NOW THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES EACH DAY. THIS MAY
YIELD LOCALIZED FLOODING THREATS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION AXIS DEVELOPS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE
TRENDS IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST MS WILL IMPACT TUP FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING AT TAF
SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COMPLEX OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT, IMPACTING JBR FIRST, THEN
MEM AND MKL TOWARD SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IN THE PROB30 TIMING IS
MODERATE AND WILL REFINE IF NEEDED WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF
GUIDANCE ARRIVING LATER THIS MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH MINRH VALUES
OVER 40%, WILL NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CJC
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