119
FXUS64 KMEG 081122
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL ACCOMPANY HIGHS IN THE MID TO
LOWER 100S THROUGH THURSDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH TUESDAY FOR HEAT INDICES UP TO 108
DEGREES.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, HIGHS WILL MODERATE TO THE LOW
TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
A CALM AND WARM NIGHT IS ON DISPLAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER HOT AND
DRY DAY WILL BE PRESENT AGAIN TUESDAY AS A 595DAM RIDGE,
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS, CONTINUES TO
BROADEN EAST AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO USHER IN SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
GRADUALLY RISE ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
LOWER 100S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
RESULT IN HEAT INDICES 105+F IN THE DELTA REGION, PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. THEREFORE,
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT FROM 11AM
THROUGH 8PM TUESDAY IN THESE AREAS. A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI STATE
LINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN COMBINATION
WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO HELP ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND MARGINAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE LARGELY A RINSE AND REPEAT OF TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH HOT
AND LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
WARRANTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER, THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON DEWPOINTS AS RIDGING BEGINS
TO FLATTEN OUT AHEAD OF A FRONT. NBM CONTINUES TO OVERDO
DEWPOINTS WITH THE CURRENT AIRMASS, THEREFORE, DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN HEDGED DOWN A BIT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
COME THURSDAY, A PATTERN CHANGE WILL COMMENCE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO DIP DOWN OVER EASTERN CANADA. WEAK
TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL BRING OUR
NEXT SHOT AT APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS REMAIN MEAGER AS THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING OVER
PERSISTENT RIDGING AND DRY AIR HERE IN THE MID-SOUTH, HOWEVER, WE
WELCOME ANY RAINFALL TO HOPEFULLY HELP ALLEVIATE WORSENING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE LATEST LREF GUIDANCE DEPICTS AROUND A 20-
35% OF >500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 20 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR
AMIDST INCREASED FORECAST PWATS, AROUND 1.8-2.0", BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM AMIDST THE MODEST
HEIGHT FALLS AND PEAK DAYTIME HEATING BOTH DAYS. MORE REFINED
DETAILS WILL COME INTO FRUITION IN THE COMING DAYS. POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATE WEAK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE'LL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, BUT IT WILL FEEL BETTER THAN
THE LOWER 100S WE WITNESSED THIS PAST WEEK.
AEH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTH TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TEETER AROUND 35-40% TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES. 20 FT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE FIRE
WEATHER PERIOD, LIKELY KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM.
OUR NEXT SHOT AT WETTING RAIN RETURNS THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ036-048-049-058.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ001-002-007-008-010>013-020-021.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TNZ088-089.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CJC
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