517
FXUS64 KMEG 291741
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1241 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED HUMIDITY HAVE ARRIVED.
HOWEVER, THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
REMAIN UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM TODAY UNTIL RELIEF
ARRIVES FOR THESE AREAS TOMORROW.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY AND WILL
LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT BOTH
DAYS.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
A MUCH COOLER DAY, IN COMPARISON TO THE PAST FEW OPPRESSIVE HEAT
DAYS, IS ON DISPLAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S THANKS TO YESTERDAY'S COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE WARRANTING A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 8PM. A WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH LEADING TO
MUGGY CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
NORTH OF THIS FRONT AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. THE LATEST
KNQA RADAR SWEEP INDICATES VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF THIS
FRONT WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY (~2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, 30 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, AND PWATS AROUND 2.1") TO SUPPORT A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, THE PARAMETER SPACING WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME
SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH, THE PARAMETER SPACE MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONGER DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES AND GUSTY WINDS.
BY TOMORROW, DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS PWATS ALSO
FALL BELOW 2.0" FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. THOUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA REGION MAY STILL RETAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S, BEING
OUR HOT SPOT AGAIN TOMORROW, A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DECREASED PWATS AND A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN
OVERALL DRY DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S TOMORROW. DRY CONDITIONS WILL NOT LINGER VERY
LONG AS BY FRIDAY, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN EDGING CLOSER TO OUR AREA
FRIDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OUT AHEAD OF IT. BY THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY, THIS
POSITIVELY TILTED WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO PUSH ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD IN NATURE AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
SATURDAY. DIGGING INTO THE PARAMETER SPACING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, THIS SYSTEM IS SHAPING UP TO BE MORE OF A POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL THAN SEVERE EVENT, AS FORECAST PWATS SURGE TO
2.2"+ AND THE LATEST LREF HAS <10% OF >500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND
25 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
OVERALL TREND OF THIS SYSTEM AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MIGRATING EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER
AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. MOVING INTO NEXT WORKWEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
AS ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT NEAR NORTH UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS FOLLOWING BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
AND FRONT.
AEH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE WILL CARRY VCSH REMARKS AT KTUP THROUGH
21Z. VFR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST GENERALLY LESS THAN
7 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS MINRH
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 40% AND 20FT WINDS STAY BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ049-058.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ007-010>013-
015>017-020>024.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...TAB
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