064
FXUS64 KMEG 122300
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
500 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-70 PERCENT) OF RAIN SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
A CHILLY AND SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AFTER A
COLD START THIS MORNING. MORNING LOWS DIPPED INTO THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S IN AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE'VE WARMED A BIT
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. AS A
COOL 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAIL,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 50S. TOMORROW
WILL BE MUCH THE SAME AS TODAY EXCEPT IT'LL BE A LITTLE WARMER
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SOUTHWEST
WINDS FILTER IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR AND OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WON'T BE AS PROMINENT.
EARLY WEDNESDAY, A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH DIPS DOWN FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT, EXTENDING FROM THIS UPPER
LOW, EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
NEARLY TEXAS, WILL ALSO BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. AHEAD
OF THIS COLD FRONT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA, GREATEST CHANCES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH, EAST OF OUR AREA BEFORE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO PLUMMET BELOW FREEZING AS DRY AIR QUICKLY
FILTERS IN. THE GEFS HAS A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EVEN IF A FEW
FLURRIES ARE ABLE TO FILTER IN, IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT WEDNESDAY AS
THEY ONLY EQUATE TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. WINDS WILL ALSO
BE ELEVATED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, QUICK MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW AND A MUCH COLDER,
CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN. THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 30S WITH MORNING APPARENT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH.
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A BIT AS UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, THE
WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN FROM ONTARIO AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THIS COULD BRING OUR NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK. HOWEVER, WE'RE STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO IRON OUT THE EXACT
DETAILS OR PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THIS SYSTEM. LREF
PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 20% FOR A LIGHT DUSTING, THOUGH THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT MOISTURE WILL NOT BE IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
TO FALL. STAY TUNED..
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE (90-100%) OF VFR CONDITIONS IN THIS TAF SET.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AT MEM, JBR
AND MKL TO 10-12 KTS TOMORROW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW. EXPECT SLIGHTLY LOWER
WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW, AROUND 7 KTS, AT TUP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 40%
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. WEDNESDAY WILL BE AN EXCEPTION WHEN
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE ABOVE THIS THRESHOLD
WITH OUR NEXT SHOT AT RAINFALL WITH A COLD FRONT. INCREASED 20FT
WIND SPEED IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COULD POSE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JDS
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