848
FXUS64 KMEG 091134
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY, AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM
HURRICANE ISAIAS SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
IN STORE, WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
- THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE
MID-SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS INCLUDING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- RAINFALL FROM ISAIAS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL TURN DRY AND WARM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY, BEFORE THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS LIFT THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WHILE THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK NEAR THE MS/AL
BORDER, AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD WILL ROTATE AROUND NORTH AND WEST
THE SURFACE LOW, AFFECTING AREAS AS FAR AWAY AS NORTHEAST AR.
THIS WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE MIDSOUTH. NBM
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUSTAINED WINDS APPEAR REASONABLE, AVERAGING 20KT
SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, WITH A BAND
OF 925MB WINDS NEAR 50KT OVER NORTH MS MID-MORNING SATURDAY. 35KT
(40MPH) APPEARS TO BE A GOOD GUST POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF MIDSOUTH,
EAST OF THE MS RIVER. BRIEFLY STRONGER TRANSIENT GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AHEAD OF ANY HEAVY RAIN BANDS OVER NORTH MS SATURDAY
MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY/FRIDAY.
QPF REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER FORECASTS. ISAIAS WILL
MOVE RELATIVELY QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION. DESPITE VERY DRY
SOILS, RAIN RATES MAY EXCEED THE ABILITY FOR ABSORPTION. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH EAST
OF THE MS RIVER.
AS ISAIAS EXITS EARLY SUNDAY, A MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TO 592DAM AT 500MB
OVER CENTRAL MS, AND PROMISES TO BRING A RETURN OF LATE SUMMER-
LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WE APPROACH MID-OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT, THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL TRACK NORTH
ALONG THE AL/MS STATE LINE AND RESULT IN DETERIORATING CIGS AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS. INTRODUCED PROB30 FOR SHOWERS AT TUP AFTER
05Z, THEN MEM AND MKL AT 10Z. PREVAILING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT
TUP BEFORE SUNRISE AND AT MEM AFTER 13Z. STRONGER EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND CIGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TODAY, WITH STRONGER
EASTERLY WINDS THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL
PREVAIL NORTH OF I-40, WITH 25 TO 35 PERCENT FORECAST TO THE
SOUTH.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY, AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS
LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ019>022-048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS
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