688
FXUS64 KMEG 140558
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1158 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SATURDAY MORNING, LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
- A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
ALL IS CALM AND MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING,
BUT NOT FOR LONG. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN
TANDEM THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY,
INCREASING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF WAA SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA, NEARLY
ALL THE INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH
ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER, MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 100 J/KG IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO ENCOURAGE A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.
THE HEAVIEST PERIOD OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
6 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COINCIDES WITH A SURGE IN PWATS AROUND
1.3 INCHES, WHICH IS NEARING THE UPPER ECHELON OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR
MID FEBRUARY. THIS IS ALSO WHEN THE SURFACE LOW'S TRACK IS
PROJECTED TO PASS RIGHT THROUGH THE MS DELTA, WHICH WILL FURTHER
CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL-PRODUCING STORMS. WHILE QPF CONTINUES TO TREND
DOWNWARD FOR THIS WEEKEND'S RAINFALL (NOW LOOKING LIKE 1.5 TO
2 INCHES TOTAL, AT BEST), IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. THE SLOW SNOWMELT FROM THE LATE JANUARY WINTER STORM
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A VERY SOGGY GROUND IN MANY AREAS. SOILS ARE
ALREADY FAIRLY SATURATED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW FELL AND STAYED ON THE GROUND FOR WEEKS. WHILE THE
RAINFALL TOTALS ALONE ARE NOT NECESSARILY SOUNDING ALARM BELLS
FOR FLASH FLOODING, IT'S IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE DUE TO OTHER FACTORS
AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG I-40.
00Z CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SHARP CUTOFF IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SHORTLY AFTER NOON
SUNDAY. THIS TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG SURFACE LOW IS, ANECDOTALLY, A PRECURSOR TO A WAKE LOW.
WHILE THESE ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN ADVANCE, THE
SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW HOURS OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 40-50 MPH JUST DUE TO THE 6-8 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE FELT MOST ACROSS THE MS
DELTA AND WOULD BE FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, THINGS LOOK WARM AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS RIDGING PATTERN WILL DOMINATE AT PRETTY MUCH ALL LEVELS,
LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. NEAR RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FOR
FANS OF WINTER, THE CPC EXTENDED TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK WILL BE
DISAPPOINTING. WE MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 70% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 7-12 KTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE (> 70% CHANCE) FOR MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF VERY DRY CONDITIONS, WETTING RAINS WILL
MOVE BACK IN THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY SATURDAY, REACHING MAXIMUM INTENSITY IN THE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL MAX OUT AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG
I-40, BUT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST 1 INCH. AFTER THE
PRECIP ENDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEW
HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CJC
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