834
FXUS64 KMEG 121732
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AMIDST WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
- WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AS
A 1027 HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WEAK RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH NORTHWESTERLIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. THE MID-SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLACED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND SURFACE EASTERLIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A MILD
AND DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN
THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S.
THROUGH FRIDAY, THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND, AND EVENTUALLY EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY, A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION, ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WAA
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING PWATS BETWEEN 1.0" - 1.5"
(90TH - 97.5TH PERCENTILE) INTO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ISENTROPICALLY
LIFT OVER THE FRONT, PRODUCING RAIN OVER THE I-40 CORRIDOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW CATCHES UP OVERNIGHT, SOUTHERLY
WAA WILL INCREASE WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN RAINFALL RATES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS A HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIPITATION THAT
WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREFORE, WPC HAS
PLACED A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/4) RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR
SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR THE 00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME WHILE
THE HEAVIER AXIS OF RAINFALL IS ONGOING. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, NBM CONTINUES TO BACK THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD 1.5" - 2.5".
HOWEVER, LREF PROBABILITIES OF 2"+ OF RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY ARE
STILL AT OR BELOW 30%, SUGGESTING SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS
WITHIN THE TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. ON THE OTHER HAND,
SOME MUCAPE IS STILL SHOWING UP WITHIN LREF GUIDANCE, WHICH BRINGS
MEAN MUCAPE OF 100 J/KG - 200 J/KG AS FAR NORTH AS TUPELO AND
OXFORD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SO, SOME CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
RAIN WILL EXIT THE REGION ALONGSIDE THE SURFACE LOW. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A SURFACE HIGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION MONDAY. MODELS HAVE STILL KEPT THE OVERALL CAA
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW MARGINAL. SO, TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO COOL TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AMIDST DRY WEATHER. HIGHS COULD REACH ABOVE
70 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN NBM PROBABILITIES OF 70 DEGREES
OR HIGHER CURRENTLY SIT AT 60% OR HIGHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40.
LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL, BUT ENSEMBLES SEEM KEEN ON KEEPING ANY
SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM THIS REGION NORTH OF THE REGION,
KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
A DRY, MID-CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING VFR AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE MIDSOUTH TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 30% AND 40%
THROUGH FRIDAY. WET FUELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF LOW FIRE DANGER. MORE WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 1.5" TO 2.5".
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB
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