956
FXUS64 KMEG 192307
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
607 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL BRING NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S THIS WEEKEND.
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
QUIET WEATHER CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS NOW FULLY TAKEN HOLD OF MUCH OF THE CONUS
TODAY AS AN EXPANSIVE 590+ DM 500 MB RIDGE, CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THEREFORE, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, HELPING TO RETAIN
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND LAST WEEKEND'S COLD FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND
ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLIES TO START ADVECTION WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION TODAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR WEST FLATTENS WITH TIME, A PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL
STILL MANAGE TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THESE TWO PROCESSES WILL THEN LEAD TO A DRASTIC INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS OF THIS MORNING
THERE IS A 30% - 40% CHANCE OF HIGHS REACHING ABOVE 85 F SATURDAY
AND A 70% - 80% ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME HOVER BETWEEN 83 - 88, MAKING THIS
UPCOMING ROUND OF HEAT POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING. SO, EXPECT
NEAR-RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BENEATH A JET STREAK AS IT
TRANSITS THE NORTHERN CONUS, WHICH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
BRING OUR HEAT WAVE TO AN END MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MEAGER UP TO THIS POINT
IN THE FORECAST WITH PWATS AT OR BELOW 1", WHICH IN COMBINATION
WITH WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS ABOVE THE FRONT, WILL YIELD NO
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY RETREATS BACK NORTH WITH MILD, DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 9-12 KTS WITH A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS ON FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISH
TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE REGION
TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 30% AND 40%.
20 FT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 - 10 MPH. GRADUAL
MOISTENING WILL ACCOMPANY A WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PERSISTING BETWEEN 30% AND
40%.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page