825
FXUS64 KMEG 251703
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1203 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PERIODS OF BRIEF,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
- DANGEROUS, OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES OF 105
OR GREATER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
A RATHER SOGGY AND HUMID DAY IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH,
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PWAT VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 2" TO 2.5",
WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO SOME
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, SO THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN TN INTO NORTHEAST MS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO SAG SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVERAGE, TEMPERATURES HAVE
STRUGGLED SO FAR TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINING IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S THUS FAR. A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE MS RIVER AND OUR
FAR SOUTH COULD APPROACH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105, BUT I DO NOT
THINK THIS WILL BE PROLONGED ENOUGH TO NEED A HEAT ADVISORY IN
THESE LOCATIONS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT. WITH SKY CONDITIONS SLOWLY
CLEARING, LIGHT WINDS, AND GENERALLY LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME FOG POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN
RIVER OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT FOLLOWING SUNRISE.
INTO TOMORROW, OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE
MID-SOUTH WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAT
INDICES OF AT LEAST 105 OR GREATER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S, OPTED TO RUN
HEAT HEADLINES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE EXTREME
HEAT WARNING AREA WILL BE GENERALLY THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY ENCOMPASSING LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST
WEST OF THE TN RIVER AND INTO NORTHEAST MS. AN EXPANSION OF THE
WARNING AREA COULD BE NEEDED MONDAY AND / OR TUESDAY, BUT WILL
ADDRESS THE NEED CLOSER TO EACH DAY. REGARDLESS, PREPARE FOR A
RETURN OF SOME OPPRESSIVE HEAT ON SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. OUTSIDE OF THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT, CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECAYING MCS
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE
LOCATION OF THIS MCS HAS BEEN MOSTLY TO OUR EAST, BUT A FEW CAMS
DO WANT TO BRING SOME POPS TO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY AND OVERALL LITTLE CONFIDENCE, OPTED TO
LEAVE NEGLIGIBLE POPS IN FOR NOW FROM THE NBM, BUT THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH INTO FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
BY WEDNESDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO BACK OFF EVER
SO SLIGHTLY. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 60S. SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE DELTA REGIONS MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
WITH A TYPICAL, SUMMERTIME PATTERN FINISHING OUT NEXT WEEK, WE
COULD SEE A PATTERN SHIFT WITH INCREASED POPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TUP TO JBR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE DECREASING
AFTER SUNSET. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4-8 KTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY SUPPORT PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT NEAR MKL TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS MINRH
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 40% AND 20FT WINDS STAY BELOW 10 MPH. AFTER
TODAY'S RAIN, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MOZ113-115.
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MSZ002>006-009-013>017-021>024.
TN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
TNZ001>003-019-020-048>051-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TNZ004-
021-022-052>055-090>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JDS
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