936
FXUS64 KMEG 262313
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
613 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
MEASURABLE RAINFALL CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM 20% OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI TO 60% OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. VERY LOW HUMIDITY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
TODAY'S 12Z 500MB ANALYSIS RESEMBLED A LATE-SPRING TYPE OF
PATTERN, WITH A 589DAM RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES WERE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, AND THE MAIN STORM
TRACK WAS DISPLACED NORTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, EXTENDING FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES.
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, A NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA, DEPRESSING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT FOR THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE A
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. PRE-
FRONTAL PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.3 INCHES (80TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY) WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
INSTABILITY WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON, MODEST SURFACE-BASED CAPE (200 J/KG
OR LESS) IS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z HREF OVER NORTHEAST MS, BUT THIS
INSTABILITY IS CAPPED BY WARM 700MB TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT
(BACKED BY A 1040MB POLAR HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS) RESIDENCE TIME OF SHOWERS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE
SHORT, RESULTING IN QPF GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH.
FOR SATURDAY, DRY POLAR AIR WILL THERMALLY MODIFY UNDER THE
RELATIVELY STRONG LATE MARCH SUNSHINE AND WEAKENING COLD AIR
ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL TAKE THE BIGGEST PLUNGE FOLLOWING FRIDAY'S
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 20S F. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY RANGING FROM 18 TO 25 PERCENT
OVER NORTH MS TO NEAR 30 PERCENT IN THE MO BOOTHEEL.
CONCURRENTLY, A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH, RESULTING IN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY ON SUNDAY, WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
OVERSPREADING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
THE NET RESULT OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WARMER DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ANOTHER DAY WITH MINIMUM RH BELOW 30 PERCENT - PERHAPS LOWER
IF THE NBM DEWPOINTS TURN OUT TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER LIFTS TO LA/MS GULF COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, IN
TANDEM WITH UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY - THOUGH THERE IS SOME LACK
OF MODEL CONSENSUS ON TIMING. WITH PWAT VALUES NEARING 1.5 INCHES
AND ADEQUATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL TO MAKE A SMALL DENT IN THE DROUGHT BY THE END NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AS WELL AS LLWS AT JBR
AND MKL ON ITS DESCENT. VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION, MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF DRIZZLE, IS PROBABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT RATHER QUICKLY DUE TO THIS FRONT FROM SW TO NE BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AND A MORE DEVELOPED LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE
AIRSPACE QUICKLY. PROB30S FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND VISIBILITY IMPACTS. THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW AND THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
BEING INTENSE ENOUGH TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES IS ALSO LOW. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY PRE AND POST FRONTAL, BUT NBM GUIDANCE IS
VERY OPTIMISTIC WITH A QUICK RETREAT TO VFR.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT, AVERAGING
LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH NORTH OF I-40. FURTHER SOUTH,
WETTING RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY RANGING FROM 20 TO
30 PERCENT. HUMIDITY WILL MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK, IN ADVANCE OF
RAIN CHANCES IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF MIDWEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026-028.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...DNM
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