529  
FXUS64 KMEG 092020  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
320 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
- SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES  
(60-70%) ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL  
REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN HALF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
- DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO START THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S MONDAY AND 70S ON TUESDAY THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH  
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF  
THE CWA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AIR HAS REMAINED  
DRIER THAN MOST GUIDANCE TODAY, WITH EVEN 5TH PERCENTILE NBM  
PRODUCING DEWPOINTS ABOVE TODAY'S OBSERVATIONS. THEREFORE, RAIN  
SHOWERS SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH MINIMAL  
ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF SPORADIC FRONTOGENETIC BANDS. SATELLITE  
DOES INDICATE SOME GLACIATION AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES OVER THE  
REGION, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPRIVE ANY LAYERS OF INSTABILITY.  
SO, CONFIDENCE IN ANY LIGHTNING IS LOW THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE  
SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BEHIND  
TODAY'S UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO CLIMB WITHIN  
CLEAR WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 60S  
AND 70S RESPECTIVELY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY, A NEW TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION  
FROM THE WEST WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. SOUTHERLY MOISTURE  
ADVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT OWES TO THE POSSIBILITY  
OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES.  
HOWEVER, THE FAST EASTWARD MOTION OF TROUGH THE IS EXPECTED TO  
LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY SURFACE AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ADDS  
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY TO COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF ANY CONVECTION.  
NONETHELESS, MOST MEDIUM/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A BROAD  
SWATH OF QPF ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY  
WITHIN AN AREA OF ~500 MUCAPE THAT WOULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
TROUGH NUMBER 2 LEAVES JUST AS FAST AS IT ARRIVES THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY THURSDAY WITH A RELATIVELY NEBULOUS FRONT WASHING OUT OVER THE  
REGION, LEAVING BEHIND A SOMEWHAT UNTOUCHED MOIST AIRMASS. A  
THIRD, MUCH LARGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL THEN BE  
APPROACHING INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL KICK OFF RAPID SOUTHERLY WAA  
OFF THE GULF. RAPID POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED IN  
THIS REGIME AS A DEEP SUB-980 MB LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS FRIDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET STREAK ABOVE THIS  
MOISTURE HAS PROMPTED GROWING CONCERNS FOR INCREASED SEVERE  
WEATHER POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS SUCH, THE SPC HAS PLACED  
THE ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT (2/5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON  
FRIDAY AND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS IN A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FOR  
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE AND LARGE MASS RESPONSE  
EXPECTED FOR THIS SYSTEM, ALL HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED WITH  
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, FORECAST  
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF CRUCIAL UPPER AND SURFACE  
FEATURES IS STILL ADDING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THEREFORE, CHANGES  
ARE LIKELY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT IN THE  
COMING DAYS.  
 
THE END OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE POST COLD-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH  
COOLER WEATHER AND POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.  
WEATHER WILL THEREFORE LIKELY BE DRIER AND COOLER MOVING INTO  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY  
CONFINED TO NORTH MS AND IMPACTING TUP. INCLUDED PROB30 FOR  
SHOWERS NEAR MEM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND AT TUP  
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW.  
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 6-12KT BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT  
LESS THAN 5KT.  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB  
AVIATION...JDS  
 
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