062
FXUS64 KMEG 071120
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE
FRIDAY EVENING.
- UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM AT LANDFALL, AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK THEREAFTER. AT THIS
EARLY TIME, THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR THE MIDSOUTH WILL LIKELY BE
GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE
THE MOST RAIN, WITH UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY,
UNDERNEATH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGE
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL COOL
EFFICIENTLY AT NIGHT. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN CONTINUED
ELEVATED WILDLAND FIRE DANGER, WHICH MAY PEAK ON FRIDAY, AS WINDS
AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ISAIAS
APPROACH.
REGARDING TD9 / ISAIAS, INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH WINDS OF 85 KNOTS FORECAST AT LANDFALL FRIDAY
EVENING. CURRENT NHC FORECASTS SHOW MOST LIKELY LANDFALL TO BE
NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER. ISAIAS MAY QUICKLY WEAKEN POST-LANDFALL,
AS IT ENCOUNTERS SHEAR. THE REMNANT LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO TRACK OVER FAR NORTHEAST MS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
ACCELERATE THROUGH THE TN RIVER VALLEY TN SATURDAY EVENING.
A WEAK LOW OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAIN WILL AID ISAIAS' RELATIVELY
QUICK NORTHWARD TRACK POST-LANDFALL. THE FAST FORWARD MOTION WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL, WHICH SHOULD AVERAGE 1-3 INCHES EAST OF
THE MS RIVER, WITH UP TO 4 INCHES LOCALLY NEAR THE TN RIVER.
WINDS FROM ISAIAS WILL LIKELY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA EAST
OF THE MS RIVER, IF CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS PAN
OUT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TX AT THE START OF THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK WILL AMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S
APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MID-OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AIRSPACE. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS ALTHOUGH
PREVAILING DAYTIME WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
MINIMUM RH WILL PREVAIL IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE WETTING RAINFALL FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING IN THE GULF ARRIVES ON SATURDAY. INCREASING WINDS ON
FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN WILDLAND FIRE DANGER REACHING A PEAK ON
FRIDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS
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