704
FXUS64 KMEG 101043
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
543 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
THROUGH THURSDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY FROM 11
AM TO 8 PM FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH SOME LOCALIZED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT DUE TO
RAIN.
- A DRIER FORECAST WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH BY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS
EVENING. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY. BEFORE THE
FRONT ARRIVES, TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN WITH MID 90S
TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THURSDAY FOR EXTREME SW TN, NW MS, AND MUCH OF EASTERN AR.
THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERSECT AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS
IT ENTERS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS WILL HELP
AID STORM ORGANIZATION. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN
PLACE ACROSS NE AR, THE MO BOOTHEEL, AND NW TN FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
AND STORMS WILL REFIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SURFACE HEATING CRANKS UP AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER
THE AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
THOUGH WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK, SO SEVERE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY
LOW. NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MID-SOUTH, SAY NORTH OF I-40, WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS HOT ON FRIDAY THANKS TO THE FRONT BEING STALLED
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY, AND THE WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING WILL START PUSHING EAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS NO DROUGHT BUSTER, BUT AREAS ALONG THE
KY/MO BORDERS AND TN RIVER/AL BORDER HAVE A 40 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PICKING UP ONE-HALF INCH THROUGH THE EVENT. UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MID-WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPS RETURNING TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S AREAWIDE. HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES, MAINLY OVER THE DELTA SOUTHWEST
OF MEMPHIS. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG NEXT
WEEK, SO THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS, ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MID-SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL INCREASE AT JBR.
HOWEVER, OVERNIGHT MODEL DATA HAS CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ARRIVAL AT MKL, WITH POTENTIALLY LESS CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AT MEM AND MKL. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.
MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TUP WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, BRINGING
INCREASING WETTING RAIN CHANCES, HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES, AND A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. ELEVATED WETTING RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 40 PERCENT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TNZ048-049-088.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...CJC
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