565
FXUS64 KMEG 300542
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 832 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS LIFTING OUT OF THE SW US AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN AR AND NORTH MS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT THOUGH AREAS ACROSS NE AR COULD HAVE A HALF
INCH OR MORE BY SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 40S. THE HEAVIER RAINS ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 RESIDE IN
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-SOUTH
ON THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40,
WHERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70
DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
A MILD WINTER DAY ONGOING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW
40 PERCENT. THE POLAR AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO AS DEEP GULF MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED POLEWARD.
A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MULTIPLE
PERTURBATIONS, EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE WAVES OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO MAX
OUT CLIMATOLOGY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY SURGE TO 1.6 INCHES.
12Z HREF GUIDANCE HAS ZEROED IN ON A BAND OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP NORTH OF AND PARALLEL TO
INTERSTATE 40. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH TO COVER MOST
OF THE COUNTIES NORTH OF I-40, WHERE TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER EMERGING THREAT IS STRONG WIND GUSTS, MAINLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
THE OZARKS AND A 60 KNOTS LOW LEVEL JET. HREF GUIDANCE IS PINGING
ON 40 MPH GUSTS, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMEFRAME. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY, DUE TO
THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE UNCERTAIN POSITION
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 60S DURING THE DAY
WITH 40S AT NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY BUILD AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY
ZONAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
AC3
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH
INITIALLY LIMITED IMPACTS. CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS PRECIPITATION WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
FARTHER SOUTH, COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH A MORE LIKELY
AFTERNOON LULL IN PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST CAMS KEEP THE MEM AREA
VERY CLOSE TO THE PERSIST BAND OF CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SO IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
CURRENT TAF. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MORE FOCUSED OPPORTUNITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE PRIMARY WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. PROB30 THUNDER WAS INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ARZ009-018-026>028.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TNZ001>004-019-020-048-
051.
UPDATE...SJM
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...MJ
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