801  
FXUS64 KMEG 030843  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
343 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2020  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH A SERIES  
OF EMBEDDED WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCE OVER AR CAN BE SEEN IN THE IR IMAGERY AND  
IT IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF EAST AR AND NW MS.  
TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH A GOOD DEAL OF  
MID/HIGH CLOUDS COVERING THE REGION.  
 
TODAY...AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND BECOME  
MORE HUMID. EXPECT THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER AR TO DRIFT  
OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR  
CONVECTION. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH MS  
AND EAST AR WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. EXPECT HIGHS  
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER THOUGH A FEW  
90S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN.  
 
TONIGHT...SEVERAL CAMS ARE DEPICTING A MCS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE  
REGION AND MOVING INTO THE MID-SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOLUTIONS VARY  
WIDELY BUT SEEMS REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT SOME ACTIVITY WILL  
DROP INTO THE REGION IN THE WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT.  
 
THURSDAY...AT THIS POINT TRYING TO PREDICT THESE MESOSCALE  
FEATURES GETS REALLY DICEY. IF A MCS DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION  
TONIGHT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG WHATEVER BOUNDARY IS  
LEFTOVER ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN  
THE NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT. AS HUMIDITY INCREASES  
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECT SBCAPE VALUES TO  
CLIMB GREATER THAN 2500 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF WHEREVER  
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SETS UP. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID-SOUTH  
WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE DECREASE OF RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS  
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO THE  
UPPER 90S. MEANWHILE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG  
THE GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASINGLY WET IS A GOOD BET AS THE  
REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  
 
SJM  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO  
MAINLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY  
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
ARS  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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