015
FXUS64 KMEG 250445
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY
VEGETATION.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE OF NOTE THIS EVENING WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE 50S AND 60S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. AN
ANOMALOUS 592DAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BRINGING WARM AFTERNOONS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S AND CHILLY MORNINGS IN THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S. A
VERY DRY AIRMASS ALSO REMAINS FIXED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH CURRENT PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.5-0.7", NEARING THE 25TH
PERCENTILE FOR OCTOBER, ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. DRY AIR WILL MIX
DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ONCE
AGAIN. AS SUCH, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST SUNDAY. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO ADHERE TO LOCAL BURN BANS, PROPERLY DISPOSE OF
CIGARETTES AND MATCHES, AND AVOID USING EQUIPMENT THAT CREATES
SPARKS.
BY MIDWEEK, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS TROUGHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FORECAST, HOWEVER,
WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO CHANGE AS A PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THESE AREAS, BUT NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. DESPITE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDING IN, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK AS
MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWERED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S EACH AFTERNOON.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS, WHEN WILL WE SEE RAIN NEXT. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO PUSH A PATTERN CHANGE FURTHER AND FURTHER
BACK. LATEST LREF GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A DEEPENING TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
DRIVE THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BY
SATURDAY (HALLOWEEN), A SUBTROPICAL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA, PUSHING MOISTURE FURTHER EAST, AND
FURTHER INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR US TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND,
HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 20-30%. IF PRECIPITATION IS ABLE
TO SNEAK INTO THE MID-SOUTH, APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. MAYBE SOME GOOD NEWS, THE LATEST CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK
DOES HAVE US LEANING ABOVE NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO
NOVEMBER. WE'LL PLAY THE WAIT AND SEE GAME FOR NOW.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
NO CHANGES, VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL
TREND MORE EASTERLY LATE TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIXED OVER THE REGION. A
COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, DRY FUELS,
AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TEETERING 40% OR LESS WILL
PROMOTE INCREASED FIRE STARTS AND GROWTH. 20 FT WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL
OVERRULE LIGHT WINDS. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH SUNDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 25-35% IN COMBINATION WITH DRY
FUELS. NO WETTING RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
OVERNIGHT FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT EACH MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-
LYING AREAS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JDS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page