037
FXUS64 KMEG 221110
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
610 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY.
- A DRY COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A SECONDARY WARMING TREND OCCURS MIDWEEK.
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE STILL PERSISTS TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS WITH A BRANCH OF ENHANCED UPPER FLOW STRETCHING FROM
WASHINGTON STATE TO THE ATLANTIC. A PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE MID-SOUTH SUNDAY, WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
CURRENT NBM FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A 70% - 80%
CHANCE OF HIGHS ABOVE 85 F ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
THE BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW WILL AMPLIFY INTO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWING INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY EVENING,
WIPING OUT THE WARM AIR MASS THROUGH EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL CAPPING THAT SHOULD PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
RIDGING WILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT
WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERLIES WILL RETURN AND BRING A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE
FORECAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 85 F RISE BACK INTO THE 50% - 60% RANGE THURSDAY, WHICH
WOULD BE NEAR-RECORD TERRITORY SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WOULD ACT TO FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MARKING A QUICK END TO NEXT WEEK'S
HEAT. MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN AFTER THE FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED TO STARVE THE SECOND OF DEEP UPPER MOISTURE, AS
INDICATED BY MOST MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. THEREFORE,
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR WITH NEXT WEEK'S FRONT
AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN DROP BACK BELOW 80 F THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND WITH A 60% - 80% CHANCE OF
HIGHS BELOW 70 NORTH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A
BRIEF WINDOW OF LLWS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 00Z, BUT WILL SUBSIDE
POST FROPA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNRISE
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BETWEEN
30% AND 40% SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY 20 FT WINDS OF UP TO 20 MPH. A
PRECIPITATION-FREE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY EVENING, CAUSING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
WITH MUCH OF THE REGION CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE 20 FT WINDS
ABOVE 10 MPH THROUGH MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DROP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 30%.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...ANS
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