012
FXUS64 KMEG 181134 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST DAILY FROM
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A RELATIVELY MILD AND CALM OVERNIGHT HOUR IS PROGRESSING ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES SPANNING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AFTER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF
THE MS RIVER EARLIER THIS EVENING, ALL OF THE ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED. INTO TOMORROW, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN THROUGH THE ROCKIES, SHIFTING OUR AREA INTO A PRIMARILY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA, WITH A SCATTERED CHANCE (20-30%)
OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 BY THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE-NORMAL IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
A NOTABLE PATTERN SHIFT WILL COME ON TUESDAY AS THE MID-SOUTH
WILL TRANSITION INTO A WET PATTERN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
THIS PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA, KEEPING US IN THIS PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. JUMPING BACK TO TUESDAY, PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH ARE
CURRENTLY OUTLOOK IN THE SLIGHT RISK (2/5) CATEGORY FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER, PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. THE BETTER SET-UP SYNOPTICALLY WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO
THE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA, BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WE ARE NOT NECESSARILY OUT OF
THE WOODS. AS ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE COMES INTO RANGE, MOST ARE
PAINTING THE PICTURE OF MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2,000 J/KG WITH STEEP
SURFACE LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
DOES APPEAR TO SPLIT TO OUR NORTH, AIDING TO KEEP SHEAR VALUES ON
THE LOWER END OF THINGS. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND, THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE IF THE LINE THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA, OR IF
IT WILL BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT. THE MAJORITY OF CAMS DO HAVE THE
LINE LOSING STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA, WITH IT
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST / EAST. THIS WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISING AS OUR INSTABILITY BEGINS TO PLUMMET IN THE
EVENING. GREATER CLARITY ON THE EVOLUTION OF TUESDAY WILL BE
COMING AS WE GET ADDITIONAL CAM GUIDANCE IN RANGE, BUT FOR NOW,
THERE IS GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL EVENT ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH AND MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
BY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH,
EXPECT FOR THIS WET WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO
LIKELY POPS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BACK OFF A FEW
DEGREES THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CLIMB AGAIN
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY, BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES HAVE THE MID-SOUTH IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR OUR PWAT VALUES THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. IF
THE ENVIRONMENT WERE ABLE TO CAPITALIZE ON THIS OVER MULTIPLE
DAYS, THIS COULD CERTAINLY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS AND A FLOODING CONCERN DEPENDING WHERE THE BOUNDARY
ULTIMATELY SETS UP. RIGHT NOW, 2 TO 3" OF RAINFALL BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND SATURDAY SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION, BUT
LREF GUIDANCE DOES HAVE A 30-40% CHANCE OF SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING OVER 3". THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE GET ADDITIONAL CAM GUIDANCE. FOR THOSE
WONDERING WHEN WE WILL BREAK OUT OF THIS WEATHER PATTERN, IT
LIKELY WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE WEEKEND AT THE EARLIEST. HOWEVER,
THIS PATTERN COULD VERY WELL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO
CLEAR END IN SIGHT WITH THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF SUNDAY'S AVIATION WEATHER AT MIDSOUTH TAF
SITES, AS DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. ISOLATED TSRA
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT JBR AROUND 21Z, BUT BETTER FOCUS FOR
STORMS WILL BE TO THE NORTH, OVER SE MO AND W KY. MARGINAL LLWS
APPEARS ON TAP FOR JBR THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH
MINRH VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 40%. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page