394
FXUS64 KMEG 082316
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
616 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH, ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE LOWER OH
VALLEY TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION, AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY MOIST,
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) NEAR 2.0" ACROSS THE CWA. VERY
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND A MODICUM OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS A FEW MICROBURSTS. THAT SAID, THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT REMAINS GENERALLY LOW TODAY. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW CELLS
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING LONGER. POPS WERE EXTENDED AFTER 7 PM IN
SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING 2-4 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
DIURNAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LESS CLOUD COVER. THE NBM
IS PUSHING HEAT INDICES TO 105-109 DEGREES TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
MAINLY IN THE MS DELTA AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. HOWEVER, THE NBM
APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING DEWPOINTS AND MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WARM
BIAS. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW AREAS REACH 105F
(HEAT INDEX), BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A
HEAT ADVISORY. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT REASSESS THIS POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH AN EARLY
EVENING LULL.
CAMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS ACTIVITY UPSTREAM OVER MO/KY MOVES ESE INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MO BOOTHEEL, FAR NORTHEAST AR, AND NORTHWEST TN.
PWATS REMAIN HIGH, AND THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS IN THIS CORRIDOR. THE FLOODING RISK WILL
PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY SHORT-DURATION RAINFALL RATES (ESPECIALLY
IN MORE URBAN AREAS), BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 2-3+ INCHES OF
RAIN SHOULD ALL INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FLOODING RISK, ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM CORNING, AR, TO DYERSBURG, TN, TO PARSONS, TN,
BEGINNING AT 1 PM THURSDAY. THIS WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF DAILY REDEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY
GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURST
ACTIVITY. THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) CAPTURES THIS RISK
SUFFICIENTLY.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH 500-MB
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 600 DAM BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THESE HEIGHTS EXCEED CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
INDICATIVE OF A VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT WE'LL BE REMOVED FROM THE ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, LIMITING OUR TEMPERATURE-RELATED
IMPACTS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL
MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR MASS MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. EXPECT THE STATUS QUO OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY.
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW THIS
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WILL THE
RIDGE RETREAT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, OR WILL IT PERSIST OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY? A SLIGHT MAJORITY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS (AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE THE EPS) ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS BUILDS
THE WESTERN RIDGE, PROMOTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN LOWER DIURNAL POPS DUE
TO A DRIER AIR MASS, BUT COULD ALSO OPEN THE DOOR FOR MCS
ACTIVITY. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO SORT THROUGH WITH THESE
SCENARIOS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DWINDLE AS
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME REMNANT CIRRUS FROM TODAY'S
THUNDERSTORMS. A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AIRSPACE TOMORROW
THREATENING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT 20-FOOT
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, WITH
THE MOST LIKELY TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ARZ009.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-054-055.
PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ
AVIATION...DNM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page