902
FXUS64 KMEG 140445
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, MAINTAINING A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING.
- THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. REGARDLESS,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
10 PM RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE 00Z SOUNDING
OUT OF JACKSON, MS PLACES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
2.2 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
JULY. AS SUCH, EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES ARE OCCURRING WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 1.5 INCHES FALLING IN THE PAST HOUR. THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES SOUTHWEST.
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL FUNNEL INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THIS FEATURE
WILL PRODUCE SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING A
BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. GIVEN PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION, ELEVATED
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL EXIST PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER. EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES MAY
TRANSLATE TO RAPID RISES ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS, SO USE
INCREASED CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A RINSE
AND REPEAT PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS.
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DEFINED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD EXPANSION
OF A 600 DAM RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
BY FRIDAY, THIS FEATURE WILL BE MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED AS IT
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN. A SECONDARY AREA OF RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE WESTERN GULF THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE LATEST NBM PLACES HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S BY SATURDAY. MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO A 5 TO 7 DEGREE SPREAD AMONGST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE MAIN CAUSE OF
THIS SPREAD IS LIKELY DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE BEING RESOLVED ON
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS FEATURE WOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CAUSING LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION, THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE NBM HAS A
KNOWN WARM BIAS SO MY CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 90S ARE A BIT TOO HIGH. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO THIS WEEKEND BUT HEAT HEADLINES ARE
LOOKING UNLIKELY AS HEAT INDICES REMAIN BELOW 105 DEGREES.
ANS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
TROPICAL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
OVERNIGHT, IN TANDEM WITH A RETROGRADING MIDLEVEL PRESSURE TROUGH
AND SHRA.
TSRA CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR VIS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. SHRA COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
WANE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING, POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE MEM INBOUND PUSH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES PERSIST.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
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