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FGUS74 KFWD 232052
ESFFWD
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) FOR THE
TRINITY RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE WEST FORK OF THE TRINITY RIVER
NEAR JACKSBORO HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 20 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE JACKSBORO FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 21.3 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 04/23/2025 - 07/22/2025
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
WEST FORK TRINITY RIVER
JACKSBORO 20.0 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.3 21.6 23.4 24.9 26.4
BOYD 16.0 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.3 20.4
FORT WORTH 20.0 2.7 3.9 4.8 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.5 7.6 12.0
GRAND PRAIRIE 30.0 9.2 9.2 11.8 14.2 15.4 17.2 18.6 21.8 29.7
BIG SANDY CREEK
BRIDGEPORT 12.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.1 7.1 8.2 9.1 12.5 14.1
CLEAR FORK TRINITY RIVER
WEATHERFORD 15.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 10.7 14.7
FORT WORTH 15.0 10.1 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.6 12.5 13.1 14.3 15.1
DENTON CREEK
JUSTIN 10.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 9.7 11.1 12.5 12.7 14.2 15.3
ELM FORK TRINITY RIVER
GAINESVILLE 22.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 7.0 12.7 13.9 17.1 19.5 24.3
CARROLLTON 9.0 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.9 7.4 8.2 9.2
CLEAR CREEK
SANGER 25.0 9.7 9.7 11.6 13.4 15.1 16.4 19.5 22.4 27.7
SISTER GROVE CREEK
BLUE RIDGE 24.0 19.1 19.1 19.4 21.3 23.1 24.3 26.4 27.6 28.3
EAST FORK TRINITY RIVER
MCKINNEY 16.0 13.1 13.1 13.5 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.8 18.2 18.9
CRANDALL 18.0 2.9 3.5 3.8 4.1 5.0 5.6 7.7 13.4 21.5
CHAMBERS CREEK
RICE 24.0 7.4 8.9 9.8 12.2 13.0 13.8 17.4 25.2 29.9
TRINITY RIVER
DALLAS 30.0 22.8 22.8 24.2 27.6 29.0 31.2 33.1 34.8 40.0
ROSSER 31.0 10.8 11.0 13.6 14.8 17.5 20.1 22.8 28.4 37.2
TRINIDAD 33.0 20.7 23.2 28.5 31.4 33.5 36.2 39.4 41.5 46.8
LONG LAKE 35.0 13.8 18.5 20.2 23.3 25.2 32.1 35.2 38.8 44.6
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
LK WORTH 597.0 594.3 594.6 595.0 595.2 595.6 595.8 596.3 596.5 597.7
LK ARLINGTON 550.5 550.5 550.9 551.6 551.8 551.9 552.2 552.7 557.6
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/FWD
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
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