627
FGUS74 KFWD 212052
ESFFWD
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
352 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2025
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) FOR THE
BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE BRAZOS RIVER NEAR SOUTH BEND HAS A
FLOOD STAGE OF 21 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE SOUTH
BEND FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 13.0 FEET DURING THE NEXT
90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 05/21/2025 - 08/19/2025
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
BIG SANDY CREEK
BRECKENRIDGE 24.0 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.5 7.3 8.7 10.9 20.9 31.0
UPPER BRAZOS RIVER
SOUTH BEND 21.0 6.2 7.4 7.9 9.0 13.0 15.2 17.0 19.4 23.8
PALO PINTO 18.0 2.9 4.0 4.6 5.5 7.1 8.7 10.2 11.0 15.1
DENNIS 25.0 3.5 4.8 5.5 6.3 8.3 10.4 12.1 13.2 17.7
GLEN ROSE 29.0 6.2 7.1 7.6 8.8 10.0 11.1 12.9 14.1 17.3
AQUILLA 29.0 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 11.9 16.7 19.0
PALUXY RIVER
GLEN ROSE 22.0 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.1 5.6 6.4 7.8 10.0
NOLAN RIVER
BLUM 24.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.7 7.2
LOWER BRAZOS RIVER
WACO 27.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.3 7.3 12.4 16.6
HIGHBANK 35.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.5 5.4 8.1 10.1 14.9
NORTH BOSQUE RIVER
HICO 24.0 5.4 6.5 6.9 7.2 7.7 8.7 9.4 10.0 12.7
CLIFTON 23.0 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.1 6.7 8.9 10.7 13.5
VALLEY MILLS 36.0 7.2 7.4 8.0 8.6 9.3 11.4 14.5 17.0 20.2
HOG CREEK
CRAWFORD 14.0 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.6 3.2 3.6 4.0
MIDDLE BOSQUE RIVER
MCGREGOR 20.0 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.9 5.3 10.4
SABANA RIVER
DE LEON 19.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.6 5.7 7.1 10.6 16.6
LEON RIVER
DE LEON 12.0 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 3.5 6.4 11.2
HAMILTON 26.0 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.9 8.5 9.5 11.4 14.2
GATESVILLE 22.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 5.0 6.1 7.3 10.0 11.1 12.9
BELTON 14.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 5.5
COWHOUSE CREEK
PIDCOKE 20.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 5.4 7.0 9.6 10.9 12.3
LAMPASAS RIVER
KEMPNER 18.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 3.5 5.2 6.4
LITTLE RIVER
LITTLE RIVER 30.0 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.3 6.3 7.1 8.7 11.8 14.9
ROCKDALE 30.0 5.6 6.2 6.6 7.5 8.0 9.0 11.5 16.0 26.8
CAMERON 30.0 2.1 2.7 3.1 4.1 4.5 5.5 7.3 11.7 22.1
NAVASOTA RIVER
GROESBECK 7.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.7 3.1 4.5 5.1 7.1 9.2
EASTERLY 19.0 4.0 6.5 7.8 9.8 14.0 16.0 20.6 21.4 22.2
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
LK GRAHAM 1075.0 1075.0 1075.1 1075.2 1075.6 1075.7 1076.0
HUBBARD CR LK 1170.8 1170.8 1170.8 1170.9 1171.1 1171.1 1171.3
LK LEON 1374.7 1374.7 1374.7 1374.8 1374.8 1374.8 1375.1
20% 10%
--- ---
LK GRAHAM 1076.4 1077.1
HUBBARD CR LK 1172.6 1174.4
LK LEON 1375.6 1376.8
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
LK PALO PINTO 867.3 867.3 867.3 867.3 867.3 867.3 867.3 867.4 867.8
LK PAT CLEBURNE 733.7 733.7 733.7 733.7 733.7 733.7 733.8 734.3 735.2
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: WATER.NOAA.GOV/WFO/FWD
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
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