794
FGUS74 KHGX 192153
ESFHGX
200953-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
353 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR HARRIS COUNTY WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR HARRIS
COUNTY WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS
ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: GREENS BAYOU AT U.S.HWY 59 IN HOUSTON HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 55 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE U.S. HWY 59 FORECAST
POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 45.2 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 12/18/2024 - 03/18/2025
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
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SPRING CREEK
TOMBALL 155.0 140.1 142.4 144.0 146.0 146.2 146.8 147.1 147.7 148.2
CYPRESS CREEK
KATY-HOCKLEY 157.3 146.2 146.6 148.8 150.1 150.8 151.6 152.1 153.1 154.4
GRANT ROAD 122.0 104.1 105.0 105.7 106.7 107.2 107.6 108.8 109.9 112.7
GREENS BAYOU
KNOBCREST ST 84.8 69.2 69.7 70.3 70.7 71.3 71.5 71.9 72.4 73.3
U.S. HWY 59 55.0 42.9 44.0 44.7 45.2 46.0 47.2 47.7 48.4 50.1
LEY ROAD 30.0 4.1 6.2 7.5 8.7 9.9 12.2 13.9 14.9 17.0
WHITE OAK BAYOU
HEIGHTS BLVD 32.0 12.2 13.5 14.2 15.0 17.1 17.9 18.5 19.3 21.4
BRAYS BAYOU
MAIN STREET 41.0 22.3 22.7 24.3 27.1 27.6 28.5 29.2 30.5 35.9
BUFFALO BAYOU
WEST BELT 62.2 38.3 38.9 39.5 40.3 40.5 40.6 41.2 41.7 42.9
PINEY POINT 52.0 31.2 32.0 32.2 33.3 34.1 34.3 34.9 36.0 37.2
SHEPHERD DR 28.0 4.7 5.5 6.5 8.2 8.8 9.1 10.3 10.7 13.0
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/LONG_RANGE.PHP?WFO=HGX
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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