311  
FGUS74 KSJT 211959  
ESFSJT  
TXC049-081-083-095-151-235-253-267-281-307-319-327-333-399-411-417-  
431-441-451-220759-  
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
259 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2024  
 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)  
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE COLORADO  
RIVER BASIN IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SAN ANGELO TEXAS HAS  
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR  
THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC  
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE  
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR SILVER HAS A FLOOD  
STAGE OF 22 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE FORECAST POINT  
AT SILVER WILL RISE ABOVE 6.0 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID 03/20/2024 - 06/18/2024  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
COLORADO RIVER  
SILVER 22.0 3.3 4.2 4.6 4.8 6.0 6.5 7.1 8.2 11.9  
ROBERT LEE 33.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.7  
BALLINGER 18.0 4.2 5.0 5.6 6.4 7.4 9.0 11.4 12.4 13.8  
STACY 40.0 4.0 4.2 4.3 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.7 6.0  
WINCHELL 26.0 2.5 3.0 4.1 6.3 7.2 8.4 8.9 11.3 13.0  
SAN SABA 30.0 2.6 3.9 5.5 5.8 6.4 8.5 9.8 13.1 16.7  
ELM CREEK  
BALLINGER 7.0 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.3  
NORTH CONCHO RIVER  
STERLING CITY 17.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.6 12.6  
CARLSBAD 12.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.8 4.5 5.8 8.9  
MIDDLE CONCHO RIVER  
TANKERSLEY 18.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 11.3  
SPRING CREEK  
TANKERSLEY 14.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.2 5.8  
DOVE CREEK  
KNICKERBOCKER 26.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.5 4.8 6.0  
SOUTH CONCHO RIVER  
CHRISTOVAL 10.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2  
PECAN CREEK  
SAN ANGELO 10.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1  
CONCHO RIVER  
SAN ANGELO 26.0 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8 5.2  
PAINT ROCK 26.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.4 15.1  
PECAN BAYOU  
CROSS CUT 33.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.5 8.2  
BROWNWOOD 20.0 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.0 8.3  
MULLIN 45.0 5.8 5.9 6.1 7.2 7.7 8.0 10.7 12.0 13.8  
BRADY CREEK  
BRADY 26.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5  
SAN SABA RIVER  
MENARD 18.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.7 5.6 10.0  
BRADY 30.0 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.7 4.5 4.8 5.3 6.2 8.3  
SAN SABA 24.0 3.1 3.7 5.5 7.6 9.6 10.7 15.9 18.8 21.9  
NORTH LLANO RIVER  
JUNCTION 21.0 7.7 8.2 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.6 9.7 10.2 14.0  
LLANO RIVER  
JUNCTION 16.0 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.8 10.1  
MASON 23.0 6.0 6.5 7.7 8.2 8.8 9.6 10.6 11.4 12.9  
BEAVER CREEK  
MASON 12.0 6.6 7.4 8.3 8.5 9.3 10.0 10.6 10.7 11.6  
 
OAK CREEK RESERVOIR  
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
1983.8 1983.8 1983.8 1983.8 1983.8 1983.8 1983.9 1984.4 1986.6  
 
LAKE COLEMAN  
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
1708.3 1708.4 1708.5 1708.8 1709.8 1711.0 1712.8 1716.4 1719.3  
 
LAKE BROWNWOOD  
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
1416.3 1416.3 1416.9 1417.3 1417.9 1418.7 1420.4 1425.0 1425.6  
 
BRADY CREEK RESERVOIR  
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
1730.0 1730.0 1730.0 1730.0 1730.1 1730.3 1730.9 1732.0 1733.6  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE  
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE  
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.  
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE  
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN  
BE DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?SJT  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
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