709
FGUS74 KSJT 191846
ESFSJT
TXC049-081-083-095-151-235-253-267-281-307-319-327-333-399-411-417-431-
441-451-201900-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1246 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE COLORADO
RIVER BASIN IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SAN ANGELO TEXAS HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR
THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE COLORADO RIVER NEAR SILVER HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 22 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE FORECAST POINT
AT SILVER WILL RISE ABOVE 4.0 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 12/18/2024 - 03/18/2025
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
COLORADO RIVER
SILVER 22.0 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.7 6.7
ROBERT LEE 33.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
BALLINGER 18.0 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 5.0 5.7 8.3 12.7
STACY 40.0 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.9
WINCHELL 26.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.9 5.8 6.9 8.9 12.7
SAN SABA 30.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.9 5.0 7.5 9.9 14.4
ELM CREEK
BALLINGER 7.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.6 5.4
NORTH CONCHO RIVER
STERLING CITY 17.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
CARLSBAD 12.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.5 6.7
MIDDLE CONCHO RIVER
TANKERSLEY 18.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1
SPRING CREEK
TANKERSLEY 14.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 4.7
DOVE CREEK
KNICKERBOCKER 26.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 5.8 6.8
SOUTH CONCHO RIVER
CHRISTOVAL 10.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 3.0
PECAN CREEK
SAN ANGELO 10.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4
CONCHO RIVER
SAN ANGELO 26.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.5
PAINT ROCK 26.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.7 15.3
PECAN BAYOU
CROSS CUT 33.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 5.4 6.1 7.5 10.4
BROWNWOOD 20.0 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.0 6.6 6.9 7.7 8.5
MULLIN 45.0 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.5 7.0 7.7 10.4 11.1 12.4
BRADY CREEK
BRADY 26.0 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.8
SAN SABA RIVER
MENARD 18.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 9.1
BRADY 30.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.8 4.3 4.6 5.4 7.7
SAN SABA 24.0 2.8 2.9 3.3 4.3 5.2 6.3 8.0 13.4 19.5
NORTH LLANO RIVER
JUNCTION 21.0 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 8.0 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.5
LLANO RIVER
JUNCTION 16.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 3.2 3.7 4.2 5.2
MASON 23.0 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 7.0 8.0 8.6 9.1 10.7
BEAVER CREEK
MASON 12.0 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.7 8.2 8.5 8.8 9.3 9.7
OAK CREEK RESERVOIR
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1982.1 1982.1 1982.1 1982.2 1982.2 1982.2 1982.3 1982.4 1982.8
LAKE COLEMAN
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1717.5 1717.6 1717.7 1718.0 1718.2 1718.6 1718.8 1719.2 1719.8
LAKE BROWNWOOD
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1424.9 1424.9 1424.9 1424.9 1425.0 1425.0 1425.1 1425.4 1425.7
BRADY CREEK RESERVOIR
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1729.6 1729.7 1729.7 1729.8 1729.8 1729.9 1730.1 1731.4 1732.8
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?SJT
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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