254  
FNUS74 KBRO 132317  
FWSBRO  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR 681490 FIRE...TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX  
617 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1900 CDT ON OCTOBER 13.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE,CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN SOME BREEZY TO WINDY  
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY  
TONIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF  
HURRICANE PAMELA MOVE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM  
90 TO 95 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  
   
REST OF TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
TEMPERATURE.........85 AT FORECAST START...MIN 77.  
RH..................73 PERCENT AT FORECAST START...MAX 94 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 12 MPH AT FORECAST  
START...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH.  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL AT FORECAST START...OTHERWISE  
1600-2700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 26 MPH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........50 51 53 60 67 65 74 74 79 77 76  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............85 83 81 80 79 79 78 78 78 79 78  
RH..............73 80 84 87 89 89 89 90 90 90 91  
20 FT WIND DIR..140 140 140 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 160  
20 FT WIND SPD..14 13 12 13 12 12 10 10 10 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.16 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 11  
EYE LVL WND DIR.140 140 140 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 160  
EYE LVL WND SPD.9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6  
EYE LVL WND GST.12 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 170 170  
TRANSP WIND SPD.25 26 24 23 23 23 20 23 21 21 20  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 96.  
RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000-5300 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 7 TO 9 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST  
3 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........69 68 63 60 59 44 48 44 41 34 31 31  
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
TEMP............78 78 77 80 84 87 88 92 94 95 96 95  
RH..............92 91 91 88 82 73 62 53 47 42 41 42  
20 FT WIND DIR..160 170 170 180 190 200 220 220 240 260 290 060  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 6 7 9 7 6 5 3 3 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 8 7 8 11 8 6 5 5  
EYE LVL WND DIR.160 170 170 180 190 200 220 220 240 260 290 060  
EYE LVL WND SPD.5 4 4 4 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 1  
EYE LVL WND GST.8 6 5 6 8 6 5 4 4 4 2 2  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.5 3.0 4.0 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.170 170 170 170 180 190 190 270 270 270 270 270  
TRANSP WIND SPD.20 18 13 13 15 9 7 6 5 3 3 3  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).  
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 75.  
RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800-1600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 8 TO 14  
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........31 40 26 26 27 34  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............94 87 82 79 78 76  
RH..............47 60 79 86 88 92  
20 FT WIND......080/5 110/5 150/6 150/6 150/6 150/5  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 7 7 6  
EYE LEVEL WIND..080/3 110/3 150/4 150/4 150/4 150/3  
EYE LVL WND GST.4 4 5 5 5 4  
MIX HGT (FT)....4400 1600 1000 1000 900 800  
TRANSPORT WIND..270/3 140/8 140/12 160/12 170/13 170/8  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 96.  
RH..................MIN 47 PERCENT.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE  
IN THE MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WIND (20 FT)........  
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH  
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE  
IN THE MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4400-6000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
5 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........44 32 26 26 48 48  
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ CHANCE CHANCE  
TEMP............75 78 84 89 93 94  
RH..............96 93 81 65 52 47  
20 FT WIND......150/3 140/3 140/5 100/2 080/2 050/6  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 4 6 4  
EYE LEVEL WIND..150/2 140/2 140/3 100/1 080/2 050/4  
EYE LVL WND GST.4 3 4 2 3 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....900 1400 2400 3800 5000 6000  
TRANSPORT WIND..160/8 160/7 140/6 060/5 030/6 040/10  
 

 
FORECASTER...SPEECE  
REQUESTED BY...BELINDA JACKSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2119465.0/BRO  
.DELDT 10/13/21  
.EMAIL CSDISPATCH@TFS.TAMU.EDU  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page