595  
FNUS74 KEPZ 150916  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR ANTELOPE WELL RX...BIA-MESCALERO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX  
316 AM MDT THU AUG 15 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON AUGUST 15.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MOISTURE WHICH PUSHED BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  
THIS MOISTURE WON'T LAST LONG AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD GETS  
BROKEN DOWN, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRIER AIR MOVING IN WITH WESTERLY  
FLOW. THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE  
BEGINNING TO RETURN AT THAT TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT  
SIDE EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT VENT RATES TO  
FAIR TO GOOD TODAY, THEN IMPROVING FRIDAY RANGING FROM GOOD TO VERY  
GOOD.  
 
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200, THEN 4.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.  
MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6300 FT AGL LATE IN  
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 9900-11100 FT  
AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 6600  
FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (43500 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY (%).........35 35 43 43 43  
WEATHER COV.....S CHNC S CHNC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........S CHNC S CHNC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 50 50 50  
LAL.............2 2 5 5 5  
TEMP............72 79 84 85 84  
RH..............49 39 33 31 32  
20 FT WIND......SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 S 7 SW 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 11  
MIX HGT (FT)....700 6300 11100 9900 6600  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 W 7 W 3 SW 3 SW 7  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..11 35 41 28 28  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR POOR POOR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400, THEN 3.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
MAX HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-500 FT AGL EARLY IN  
THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........53 53 53 43 43 43  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 20 20 20  
LAL.............4 4 4 3 3 3  
TEMP............82 74 70 67 65 63  
RH..............34 44 51 56 60 65  
20 FT WIND......SW 8 SW 8 W 8 W 7 W 7 W 7  
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 11 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....3000 500 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 8 W 7 W 8 W 10 W 10 W 10  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..26 8 0 0 0 0  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.  
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 8 MPH IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (47000 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........42 42 47 47  
WEATHER COV.....S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10  
LAL.............2 2 2 2  
TEMP............62 74 84 88  
RH..............67 43 30 26  
20 FT WIND......W 7G10 W 7G10 W 7G8 W 6G7  
MIX HGT (FT)....200 1900 11700 M  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10 W 10 W 5 M  
HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 24 47 0  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR POOR  
 

 
FORECASTER...FAUSETT  
REQUESTED BY...WILMER LAPAZ  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1913820.0/EPZ  
.DELDT 08/15/19  
.EMAIL DANIEL.DYER@BIA.GOV,ALDON.CORIZ@BIA.GOV,ROBERT.NIX@BIA.GOV,JOHN.MONTOYA@BIA.GOV,WILMER.LAPAZ@BIA.GOV  
 
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