406
FNUS74 KEPZ 271052
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR SUNSET...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
452 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON AUGUST 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH ABOUT A 30% CHANCE FOR RAIN AT
THE FIRE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH STORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT
FROM THE WEST BEFORE SHIFTING FROM THE EAST MID-DAY. SPEEDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF T-STORM OUTFLOWS WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 MPH.
SMOKE TRANSPORT WILL VARY DIRECTION CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH GOOD VENT RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
8 TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (67000 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........23 23 23 5 5 5 26 26 26 40 40 40
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONESCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONESCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 30 30 30 30
TEMP............62 63 65 66 70 74 76 77 77 78 79 77
RH..............65 63 55 48 41 35 33 33 32 30 29 32
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W NW NW NW E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 8 12 12 12 14 14 14 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.6 1.6 4.3 4.3 8.4 8.4 9.0 9.0 7.0 7.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW W W W NW N N N N NE N
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 9 9 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 3 8 8 26 26 67 67 66 66 56 56
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR GD GD GD GD FR FR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING,
THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST 8 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH LATE IN
THE EVENING SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 12 MPH
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12
MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4400 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........41 41 41 58 58 58 39 39 39 30 30 30
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO NONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO NONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............76 74 71 68 67 66 64 64 63 62 62 62
RH..............33 40 44 49 50 54 58 63 62 65 62 62
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E NW NW NW SW SW SW S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.0 4.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SE SE NE N E NW W SW S SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 9 12 10
VRATE KT-FT/1K..28 28 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 8 TO 9 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
7 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (85900 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........31 31 31 4 4 4 14 14 14 36 36 36
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONEISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONEISO ISO ISO
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20 20
TEMP............61 62 64 65 70 73 75 77 77 78 79 77
RH..............62 60 58 54 46 40 37 36 35 32 31 33
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 4 4 4 8 8 8 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 8 12 12 12 16 16 16 17 17 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.6 1.6 4.3 4.3 8.2 8.2 8.9 8.9 7.7 7.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW S SE S SE E SE SE SE S
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 8 7 6 7 7 9 10 10 12 10 10
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 4 8 8 26 26 74 74 86 86 69 69
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR GD GD GD GD GD GD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SATURDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...ALICIA SCHLARB
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2620587.1/EPZ
.DELDT 08/27/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ALICIA.SCHLARB@USDA.GOV
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