801
FNUS74 KEPZ 101231
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR 16 SPRINGS RX...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
631 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 MDT ON APRIL 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER LNF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. IF STORMS DEVELOP AND
MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RX BURN, GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DROP IN TO THE 20S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AT 6-11 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. SMOKE VENTILATION RATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE FOR
SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IF STORMS DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RX, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40-50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING, BECOMING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 6-11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 15-20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11700 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (13200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (98900 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (110900
KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (172500 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
SKY (%).........41 57 68 71 73 70
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 20 40 40
TEMP............47 60 69 71 70 67
RH..............67 40 28 26 26 32
20 FT WIND......SW 3 SW 7 SW 7 S 10 S 12 S 12
20 FT WIND GUST.7 11 13 17 20 20
MIX HGT (FT)....400 3000 10100 11500 11500 8000
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 18 SW 16 S 12 S 16 S 17 S 18
VRATE KT-FT/1K..13 42 99 153 173 111
VENTRATE CAT....POOR FAIR GOOD EXNT EXNT VYGD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING,
THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70-80 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (72400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (2100 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........81 81 90 60 60 72
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE CHANCE CHANCE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC S CHC NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 80 50 50 10
TEMP............63 55 50 49 47 47
RH..............39 61 80 83 89 89
20 FT WIND......SW 10 SW 10 SW 8 SW 6 SW 6 S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.18 18 18 14 14 12
MIX HGT (FT)....5200 1000 2600 600 400 800
TRANSPORT WIND..S 16 S 15 S 18 SW 13 S 10 S 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..72 22 2 7 5 3
VENTRATE CAT....GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-68 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO WEST AROUND 24
MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (97600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (114300
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........78 68 70 73
WEATHER COV.....NONE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE CHANCE S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 50 80 80
TEMP............46 52 61 61
RH..............96 80 56 51
20 FT WIND......S 6G14 S 8G20 SW 9G21 SW 9G21
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1700 5400 4900
TRANSPORT WIND..S 7 S 14 S 18 SW 23
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 20 86 98
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 21 MPH.
FORECASTER...ROGERS
REQUESTED BY...HAYLEY BOSS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2609570.1/EPZ
.DELDT 04/10/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MATTHEW.BARONE@USDA.GOV,HCHRISBOSS@GMAIL.COM,HAYLEY.BOSS@USDA.GOV
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