021
FNUS74 KEPZ 141751
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR SEVEN CABINS...NMADC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1151 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MAY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION
WE WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW MIN RH'S LEADING TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO HELP DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND, BUT THE DRY SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. HAVE LOOKOUTS ON DUTY TO MONITOR ANY BUILD-
UPS FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. MIN RH'S TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS. AFTER TODAY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY WINDS WITH VERY
LOW MIN RH'S EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN HUMIDITY........19 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
32 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......13200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 28 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (274900 KNOT-FT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
TIME (MDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........14 14 26
WEATHER COV.....ISLD ISLD ISLD
WEATHER TYPE....SHWR SHWR SHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20
TEMP............65 66 67
RH..............24 22 19
20 FT WIND......W 15 W 15 SW 15
20 FT WIND GUST.29 29 32
MIX HGT (FT)....12900 12700 12400
TRANSPORT WIND..W 25 SW 28 W 28
VRATE KT-FT/1K..284 304 298
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT EXNT EXNT
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 15 TO 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 26 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (216800 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(9800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........9 9 6 9 9 8
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............65 62 61 59 58 55
RH..............19 22 23 24 26 29
20 FT WIND......SW 16 SW 16 W 18 W 19 W 19 W 15
20 FT WIND GUST.32 32 35 35 35 28
MIX HGT (FT)....10900 600 600 600 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 25 SW 22 W 23 W 26 W 24 W 23
VRATE KT-FT/1K..239 12 11 13 12 11
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN HUMIDITY........17 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 13 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10600 FT AGL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (190400 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........7 1 1 2
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............53 57 61 63
RH..............31 25 21 18
20 FT WIND......W 15G29 W 16G30 W 13G26 W 13G28
MIX HGT (FT)....600 5600 9200 10600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 18 W 22 W 20 W 21
VRATE KT-FT/1K..9 107 156 190
VENTRATE CAT....POOR VYGD EXNT EXNT
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SATURDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 14 MPH.
SUNDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 17 MPH.
MONDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 24 MPH.
FORECASTER...BRICE
REQUESTED BY...ROY HOUGH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613657.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/14/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMADC@FIRENET.GOV
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