495
FNUS74 KEPZ 230117
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR HUMINGBIRD...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
717 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TOMORROW, WITH A MODERATE INCREASE IN WINDS, AND
CONTINUED CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
MARGINALLY WINDY WITH STRONG GUSTS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A WEST COAST TROUGH, PASSING WELL
TO OUR NORTH, WILL TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ENOUGH TO STRENGTH WINDS.
WE WILL SEE A MINOR 2-3 DEGREE DIP IN TEMPERATURES, AND A RESULTANT
2-3 PERCENT RISE IN RH, BOTH INSIGNIFICANT CHANGES. HOWEVER, WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30+ MPH RANGE TO BRING ABOUT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WE WILL REMAIN DRY ON FRIDAY, AS WINDS DROP BACK TO
BREEZY. SATURDAY THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES, WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN,
AND WE WILL FLIRT WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT WINDY DAY, IS SUNDAY,
AS THE TROUGH PASSES JUST NORTH, AND WE SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE
LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS, HOWEVER, THERE IS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED, THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE GILA REGION, WITH MINRH RISING BACK INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT
RANGE.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56 TO 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........17 TO 19 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH EARLY. INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUST TO 35+ MPH
INCREASING TO 38 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 22 MPH INCREASING TO 37 TO 39 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (88700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (193200
KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........7 7 8 14 14 22
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............37 39 47 52 55 58
RH..............40 34 23 20 19 18
20 FT WIND......W 10 W 10 W 12 W 13 W 17 W 19
20 FT WIND GUST.28 28 36 37 37 38
MIX HGT (FT)....300 1200 2600 4400 6200 6500
TRANSPORT WIND..W 18 W 22 W 29 W 32 W 37 W 38
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 22 66 123 199 213
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD VYGD EXNT EXNT
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33 TO 35.
MAX HUMIDITY........35 TO 40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN
THE EVENING, DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 TO 35 MPH DECREASING TO 13 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (166900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO VERY GOOD (116700 KNOT-FT) LATE
IN THE NIGHT DECREASING TO FAIR (58800 KNOT-FT)
EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO POOR (1400
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE NIGHT EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........53 53 41 16 16 7
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............51 47 43 40 38 34
RH..............21 26 30 33 34 38
20 FT WIND......W 13 W 13 W 12 W 8 W 8 W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.36 36 33 23 23 17
MIX HGT (FT)....5600 2700 300 400 300 200
TRANSPORT WIND..W 35 W 25 W 18 W 16 W 14 W 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..167 59 5 5 4 2
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58 TO 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........14 TO 17 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 32 MPH
LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3500 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (97800 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (225000
KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........9 8 8 19
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............35 46 54 59
RH..............38 25 17 14
20 FT WIND......W 5G15 W 8G24 W 11G30 W 12G32
MIX HGT (FT)....300 2700 6000 8500
TRANSPORT WIND..W 13 W 18 W 25 W 31
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 42 132 229
VENTRATE CAT....POOR FAIR VYGD EXNT
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SATURDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY, DRY, AND BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY. POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. MINRH 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR, DRY, AND WINDY. LIKELY RED FLAG WARNING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. MINRH 20 TO 25 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH.
MONDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. MINRH BACK DOWN INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
FORECASTER...BIRD
REQUESTED BY...NMSDC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2611227.2/EPZ
.DELDT 04/22/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV
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