614
FNUS74 KEPZ 092001
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR FEELEY PILES RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 MDT ON OCTOBER 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
...THIS IS AS FAR OUT AS THE FORECAST CAN GO. IT IS DEFINITELY
PRELIMINARY AS THERE IS DISCREPANCIES WITHIN MODELS AS TO HOW
QUICK THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MOVE OUT AND DRY AIR REPLACES
IT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT MAY NOT BE DRY AFTER 1-2" OF RAIN THAT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE BURN AREA SAT-TUE.
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (17800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (41300 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........76 76 63 54 54 53
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE S CHC S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 40 40 40
TEMP............52 54 60 64 66 66
RH..............100 100 93 81 73 70
20 FT WIND......SE 7 SE 7 S 8 S 10 S 10 S 9
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 16 17 17 17
MIX HGT (FT)....1400 1400 3400 3400 3800 3800
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 12 SE 12 S 14 S 14 S 12 S 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..18 18 41 41 41 41
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR FAIR FAIR FAIR
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2300 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........51 51 46 43 43 38
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 20 20 20
TEMP............61 57 56 54 53 52
RH..............81 93 93 96 96 96
20 FT WIND......S 7 S 7 SE 7 SE 7 SE 7 E 7
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 13 13 13 13
MIX HGT (FT)....2500 2500 400 400 300 300
TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 S 9 SE 9 SE 9 SE 9 SE 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..20 20 3 3 2 2
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST 9 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 19 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (16800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (80200 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........23 12 12 11
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10
TEMP............51 58 66 69
RH..............100 90 63 55
20 FT WIND......SE 8G15 S 10G17 S 10G17 SW 9G17
MIX HGT (FT)....1700 1700 4700 4700
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 10 SE 10 S 16 SW 19
VRATE KT-FT/1K..17 17 76 80
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. LIGHT
WINDS.
FORECASTER...GRZYWACZ
REQUESTED BY...SILVER CITY DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2523252.0/EPZ
.DELDT 10/09/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BENJAMIN.CRUM@USDA.GOV,DANIEL.LONDON@USDA.GOV,NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV
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