501
FNUS74 KEPZ 281151
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR FIRE...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
551 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON JUNE 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 35 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, AND RH
VALUES DROP INTO THE UPPER-10S. ERCS REMAIN NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GILA REGION.
A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN WESTERN NM WILL KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MONDAY SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
DOWNTICK IN WIND SPEEDS, BUT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MAY BE REACHED
AGAIN TUESDAY AND OTHER POINTS DURING THE WEEK.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-79.
MIN HUMIDITY........19 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 38 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 29 TO 36
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (82300 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (123200
KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (223000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........8 16 22 9
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............57 63 74 80
RH..............37 29 20 17
20 FT WIND......SW 10G15 SW 14G25 SW 17G35 SW 20G38
MIX HGT (FT)....600 2800 6400 8200
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 17 SW 33 SW 33 SW 31
VRATE KT-FT/1K..8 82 184 222
VENTRATE CAT....POOR GOOD EXNT EXNT
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 37 MPH
DECREASING TO 21 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 18
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (214300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO VERY GOOD (130200 KNOT-FT) LATE
IN THE NIGHT DECREASING TO POOR (0 KNOT-FT) IN
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........4 8 8 7
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............75 67 61 57
RH..............19 26 32 39
20 FT WIND......SW 16G37 SW 10G18 SW 7G15 SW 7G15
MIX HGT (FT)....8200 900 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 30 SW 18 SW 15 SW 15
VRATE KT-FT/1K..214 14 8 8
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT POOR POOR POOR
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-78.
MIN HUMIDITY........19 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 28
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (92700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (122100
KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (187000 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........12 2 4 4
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............55 61 72 78
RH..............42 34 24 19
20 FT WIND......SW 8G15 SW 12G19 SW 12G25 SW 14G28
MIX HGT (FT)....600 3900 7300 8800
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 15 SW 28 SW 26 SW 24
VRATE KT-FT/1K..7 93 176 186
VENTRATE CAT....POOR GOOD EXNT EXNT
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...DANIEL LONDON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2616124.2/EPZ
.DELDT 06/28/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV,DANIEL.LONDON@USDA.GOV,JOSHUA.JOHNSON@USDA.GOV
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