849  
FNUS74 KEPZ 242307  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR MOSER FIRE...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
507 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MAY 25.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY WITH THE MIN RH AROUND 12%.  
THE 20FT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN THE MORNING, BUT WILL BECOME  
WINDY IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE OUT FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST. THE  
TEMPERATURE WILL BE NEAR THE NORMAL. THE VENTILATION RATE WILL BE  
EXCELLENT. SATURDAY OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR. FOR SUNDAY,  
THE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL  
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE MIN RH AROUND 14%. THE 20FT WINDS WILL  
BE LIGHT AND OUT FROM THE WEST WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. THE  
VENTILATION RATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXCELLENT. WITH THAT BEING  
SAID, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL BE CRITICAL, BUT  
WILL BECOME ELEVATED ON SUNDAY.  
   
SATURDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.  
MIN HUMIDITY........12 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 21 TO 24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 49  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 42 TO 44 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (181100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
EXCELLENT (307600 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........14 14 19  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1  
TEMP............64 68 69  
RH..............15 13 12  
20 FT WIND......W 21 W 21 W 24  
20 FT WIND GUST.44 44 49  
MIX HGT (FT)....4500 7500 7500  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 42 W 44 W 44  
HAINES INDEX....4 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..181 308 308  
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT EXNT EXNT  
   
SATURDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.  
MAX HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 14 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 48  
MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH AFTER 3 AM.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 36 MPH DECREASING TO 22 TO 23 MPH  
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (289200 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR  
(8300 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........15 15 9 8 8 7  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............66 57 52 48 46 44  
RH..............12 17 22 28 33 37  
20 FT WIND......W 23 W 23 W 17 W 14 W 14 W 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.48 48 37 26 26 23  
MIX HGT (FT)....7600 7600 600 600 400 400  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 36 W 36 W 23 W 23 W 22 W 22  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 3 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..289 289 8 8 9 9  
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.  
MIN HUMIDITY........14 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 TO 22 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (45600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (108900 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (155300  
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........4 2 2 3  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............43 55 65 69  
RH..............38 27 18 14  
20 FT WIND......W 8G14 W 8G16 W 8G18 W 9G18  
MIX HGT (FT)....3000 3000 6400 7800  
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 17 NW 17 W 18 W 22  
HAINES INDEX....3 2 4 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..46 46 109 155  
VENTRATE CAT....FAIR FAIR VYGD EXNT  
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
 
   
MEMORIAL DAY
 
 
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS  
AROUND 6 MPH.    
TUESDAY
 
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN  
THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.  
 

 
FORECASTER...TEXEIRA  
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN ANDERSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2414853.2/EPZ  
.DELDT 05/24/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL BRIAN.D.ANDERSON@USDA.GOV  
 
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