223
FNUS74 KEPZ 061857
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR 16 SPRINGS RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1257 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 MDT ON MAY 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT THURSDAY MORNING
AS A COOL FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. MIN RH REMAINING BETWEEN
18-28% THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ERCS HAVE IMPROVED WITH THE RECENT RAIN/
HIGH HUMIDITY, SO NOT MUCH CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (113500 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........22 22 5 5 5 5 5 5 9 9 9
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............35 40 46 55 59 63 64 65 67 65 65
RH..............82 70 56 41 33 30 29 27 23 24 23
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 3 3 3 5 5 5 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 12 12 12 15 15 15 16 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.7 1.9 3.1 5.2 6.7 7.3 8.6 8.7 8.2 7.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 6 8 9 12 14 14 15 15 13 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 4 13 24 52 81 88 112 114 90 85
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR FR GD GD VGD VGD GD GD
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38.
MAX HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH
AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (80400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (4300 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............64 59 53 48 46 45 44 43 43 42 42 42
RH..............22 27 33 42 43 45 45 47 47 46 46 46
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 16 9 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.7 3.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 12 10 9 9 10 12 14 14 13 14 15
VRATE KT-FT/1K..80 37 6 4 4 5 6 7 6 6 7 7
VENTRATE CAT....GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
MORNING BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST
AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12600 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 13 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 12
TO 16 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (170000 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON IN.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........6 6 6 6 6 6 23 23 23 48 48 48
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............40 44 51 58 63 67 69 71 71 71 71 71
RH..............50 45 34 27 22 20 19 18 19 19 19 18
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 13 13 13 13 15 15 15 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 2.5 5.4 7.8 10 12 12 13 12 13 12
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W NW N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 14 13 12 12 12 13 14 14 15 15 16
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 7 28 54 78 104 128 145 156 160 170 168
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR FR GD VGD VGD VGD EXL EXL EXL EXL
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FORECASTER...HEFNER
REQUESTED BY...HAYLEY BOSS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2612954.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/06/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MATTHEW.BARONE@USDA.GOV,HCHRISBOSS@GMAIL.COM,HAYLEY.BOSS@USDA.GOV
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