004
FNUS74 KEPZ 271032
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
432 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON JUNE 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT
SUNDAY...
DISCUSSION
WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW. MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO THE LOWER
20S WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. VENTING WILL BE EXCELLENT WITH SMOKE TRANSPORT
TO THE NORTHEAST. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR, BUT
CUMULUS BUILD UPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, DISSIPATING
EARLY EVENING. THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT (CHANCE LESS THAN 10%). SUNDAY
WILL SEE A LITTLE LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT) BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
(40-50 PERCENT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 31 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 29
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (233300 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........7 1 32 46
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............56 63 74 77
RH..............52 41 27 24
20 FT WIND......SW 8G26 SW 11G31 SW 12G31 SW 12G31
MIX HGT (FT)....600 3100 7200 10300
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 14 SW 26 SW 28 SW 28
VRATE KT-FT/1K..7 74 173 240
VENTRATE CAT....POOR GOOD EXNT EXNT
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) IN THE EVENING
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT) OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MAX HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 33 MPH
DECREASING TO 23 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 28 MPH DECREASING TO 16 TO 18
MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (204600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING POOR (0 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE NIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........36 7 8 11
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............75 67 62 58
RH..............24 30 35 40
20 FT WIND......SW 12G33 SW 10G31 SW 8G23 SW 8G21
MIX HGT (FT)....8500 900 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 28 SW 18 SW 16 SW 16
VRATE KT-FT/1K..205 14 9 9
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT POOR POOR POOR
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-79.
MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 37 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 28 TO 35
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (91700 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (228000
KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........25 29 8 5
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............56 63 73 76
RH..............39 29 22 19
20 FT WIND......SW 10G33 SW 13G37 SW 15G33 SW 12G32
MIX HGT (FT)....600 3300 6500 8500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 17 SW 32 SW 33 SW 31
VRATE KT-FT/1K..9 92 191 231
VENTRATE CAT....POOR GOOD EXNT EXNT
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
MONDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 9 MPH.
TUESDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...DANIEL LONDON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2616124.1/EPZ
.DELDT 06/27/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DANIEL.LONDON@USDA.GOV,JOSHUA.JOHNSON@USDA.GOV,NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV
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