438
FNUS74 KEPZ 121244
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR APPLE FIRE...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
644 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 MDT ON JUNE 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING,
TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY MID-DAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH A LOW RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. STORMS COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOP
OUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
MID 30S. VENTING WILL BE VERY GOOD WITH SMOKE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHWEST. GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (100400 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........70 70 51 51 51 56 56 56 54 54 54
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONESCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONESCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10 10 40 40 40 40 40 40
TEMP............57 61 64 69 71 73 71 71 70 68 66
RH..............53 48 45 39 35 33 36 38 39 42 47
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE S S S SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 18 18 18 16 16 16 17 17 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 1.3 3.6 6.2 8.4 9.6 8.9 8.7 7.4 6.6 4.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE S S S S SE SE SE S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 12 14 13 13 14 15 13 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 12 33 62 100 105 98 104 96 73 41
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR GD VGD VGD GD VGD GD GD FR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22
MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 6 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 21 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 8 TO 10
MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3800 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........69 69 69 45 45 45 29 29 29 34 34 34
WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ISO ISO ISO NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............64 63 61 57 57 56 55 55 55 53 53 53
RH..............50 54 58 67 67 72 74 74 74 77 77 80
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 22 22 22 21 21 21 16 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E SE SE S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 15 14 14 15 14 13 10 10 9 9 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..24 17 9 7 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (94400 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........38 38 38 30 30 30 29 29 29 28 28 28
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONEISO ISO ISO NONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONEISO ISO ISO NONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 10 10 10
TEMP............52 55 58 61 66 68 70 72 72 72 73 72
RH..............83 74 64 60 52 45 41 38 37 35 31 33
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.1 4.6 6.0 7.8 8.1 7.7 8.8 8.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW W SW SW W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 7 8 8 8 7 9 10 10 12 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 4 8 15 22 32 36 62 73 69 88 94
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR GD GD GD GD GD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT WINDS.
TUESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. LIGHT WINDS.
FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...DEVIN CLAY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2615407.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/12/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL LCDEVIN@GMAIL.COM
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