050
FNUS74 KEPZ 132311
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR ELKHORN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
511 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0700 MDT ON MAY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
VERY STAGNANT AND CONSISTENT DRY, WARM WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON,
BECOMING BREEZY TOMORROW 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MIN RH 10 TO 15% EACH DAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. REPEATING PATTERN OF NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS EACH DAY,
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND TOMORROW AND SUNDAY. FUEL CONDITIONS
WILL DRY QUICKLY, LIFTING ERCS TOWARD THE 90TH PERCENTILE. NEXT
RED FLAG MAY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR MID-MAY.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........11 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 24
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (185600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
SKY (%).........12 1 1 1 2 2
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............49 63 71 74 76 76
RH..............34 23 15 12 11 11
20 FT WIND......SW 3 SW 7 SW 7 SW 14 SW 15 SW 15
20 FT WIND GUST.6 20 20 29 30 30
MIX HGT (FT)....500 3900 6100 8200 9300 8200
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 8 SW 20 SW 24 SW 24 SW 23 SW 21
VRATE KT-FT/1K..18 66 127 172 186 147
VENTRATE CAT....POOR GOOD VYGD EXNT EXNT VYGD
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
MAX HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 28 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 12 MPH
AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (138900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (0 KNOT-FT) OVERNIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........2 2 4 3 3 3
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............74 68 61 54 52 48
RH..............12 15 20 26 27 31
20 FT WIND......SW 13 SW 13 SW 8 W 4 W 4 SW 2
20 FT WIND GUST.28 28 17 10 10 9
MIX HGT (FT)....7700 700 500 500 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 21 W 17 W 16 W 13 W 12 W 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..139 11 0 6 5 3
VENTRATE CAT....VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........10 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11800 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (104500
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........2 3 3 9
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............45 61 71 75
RH..............35 23 13 10
20 FT WIND......SW 2G9 W 5G10 W 7G15 SW 10G20
MIX HGT (FT)....500 3000 9000 11800
TRANSPORT WIND..W 7 NW 8 W 8 W 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 21 63 119
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD VYGD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SATURDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 6 MPH.
SUNDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.
FORECASTER...DENNHARDT
REQUESTED BY...NMSDC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613600.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/13/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV
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