541
FNUS74 KEPZ 231041
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR SUNSET...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
441 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON AUGUST 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS.
SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS MORNING BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH CUMULUS BUILD- UPS BY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ABOUT A 20% CHANCE STORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SITE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, STARTING OFF FROM
THE WEST BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE RETURNING FROM
THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ANY THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS. SMOKE TRANSPORT WILL BE WEST TO EAST, BECOMING SOUTH TO
NORTH WITH GOOD VENTING.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY
(60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH AROUND 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12400 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 8 TO 9
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (99400 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........13 13 4 20 20 66
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 10 10 20
TEMP............66 72 77 81 82 82
RH..............33 28 22 18 20 20
20 FT WIND......W 6 W 6 SW 6 S 7 S 7 S 7
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 12 14 14 15
MIX HGT (FT)....500 4400 9700 12000 12400 11100
TRANSPORT WIND..W 9 W 10 S 8 S 9 S 9 SW 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 31 68 96 99 89
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MAX HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AROUND 9 MPH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 12
TO 13 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (50200 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........59 59 18 44 44 10
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 0 0 0 0
TEMP............80 75 72 70 70 69
RH..............21 27 28 30 30 30
20 FT WIND......SW 7 SW 7 SW 8 W 9 W 9 NW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 14 15 15 16
MIX HGT (FT)....7200 600 600 600 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 8 S 8 SW 10 W 12 W 13 NW 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..50 4 6 6 6 6
VENTRATE CAT....FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13300 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 6
TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (80100 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........8 0 26 67
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 20
TEMP............68 74 82 84
RH..............31 25 18 19
20 FT WIND......NW 8G16 NW 5G10 N 5G12 E 5G12
MIX HGT (FT)....500 4300 12900 13300
TRANSPORT WIND..W 12 W 8 N 7 N 6
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 30 77 80
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
TUESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST
WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...SEAN DONALDSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2620239.1/EPZ
.DELDT 08/23/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL SEAN.DONALDSON@USDA.GOV
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