094
FNUS74 KEPZ 132143
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR CUB...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
343 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2020
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1600 MDT ON JULY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUESDAY, BUT
REMAIN 4 - 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND LIGHT TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BEGINNING
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER NOON. WETTING RAINS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM
OUTFLOWS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS FOR STORMS THIS PERIOD. RH INCREASES
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH MIN VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT
THROUGH THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN,
BUT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......15 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........51-55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........STARTING SOUTHWEST THEN BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-700 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........43 60 40 37 34 68
WEATHER COV.....S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............2 2 1 1 1 1
TEMP............82 77 70 67 65 62
RH..............22 27 34 38 41 47
20 FT WIND......W 8 SW 8 NW 7 NW 7 NW 6 N 6
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 11 10 10 10
MIX HGT (FT)....2900 700 BLW100 300 200 100
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 15 W 7 W 3 W 7 W 8 W 7
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3
VRATE KT-FT/1K..44 15 0 2 2 0
VENTRATE CAT....FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200, THEN 2 UNTIL 1500, THEN 3 UNTIL
1600, THEN 4.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-85.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12900-13300 FT
AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (44700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
(188200 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........79 38 37 50 65 62
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE S CHNC S CHNC CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE S CHNC S CHNC CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 10 10 20 30
LAL.............1 1 1 2 2 4
TEMP............59 67 77 82 83 84
RH..............53 41 28 22 21 20
20 FT WIND......N 7 N 5 N 6 NW 7 NW 9 W 9
20 FT WIND GUST.10 6 7 10 12 14
MIX HGT (FT)....300 1700 6000 10800 13300 12900
TRANSPORT WIND..W 6 NW 9 NW 12 W 12 W 14 W 16
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 5 5
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 10 45 100 157 188
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD EXNT EXNT
TUESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-59.
MAX HUMIDITY........47-49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (121400 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(0 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........60 49 38 45
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
TEMP............82 73 67 63
RH..............18 27 33 40
20 FT WIND......W 7G10 NW 7G10 NW 7G10 N 7G8
MIX HGT (FT)....9000 2500 200 200
TRANSPORT WIND..W 18 W 14 W 6 W 6
HAINES INDEX....5 3 3 3
VRATE KT-FT/1K..170 13 2 1
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT POOR POOR POOR
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. LIGHT WINDS.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FORECASTER...DHUYVETTER
REQUESTED BY...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2009227.2/EPZ
.DELDT 07/13/20
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV
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