901
FNUS74 KEPZ 011547
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR SCOTT FIRE...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
947 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN NOON AND
2 PM OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THERE'S A
CHANCE (30%) THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
FIRE AFTER 2 PM. OTHERWISE, BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF OUTFLOW
WINDS WHICH COULD CAUSE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NE OR E. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WSW TODAY, AND RELATIVELY LIGHT, BUT WITH
MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 7000 FEET, WE WILL STILL SEE FAIR SMOKE
DISPERSAL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOWER TOMORROW, WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 40-45 PERCENT BOTH DAYS.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 6 TO
8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (52100 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........27 27 27 27 35 35 35 50 50 50
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONESCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONESCH SCH SCH CHC SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 10 20 20 30 30 20 20
TEMP............58 64 70 71 73 71 68 70 72 74
RH..............75 63 53 51 48 51 57 53 48 43
20 FT WIND DIR..S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 3 3 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.6 10 10 10 14 14 14 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 2.3 5.3 5.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.4 7.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW SW SW SW SW W SW W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7
VRATE KT-FT/1K..12 12 26 26 50 50 50 50 52 52
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR FR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 8
TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 7 MPH AFTER 3
AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3300 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........40 40 40 28 28 28 24 24 24 22 22 22
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............75 71 67 61 58 57 57 56 56 56 55 55
RH..............40 47 54 67 72 75 72 74 74 74 77 77
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S E E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 12 9 9 9 7 7 7 8 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.2 5.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW E E E E E E SE E S SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 8 8 9 8 10 9 9 8 7 7 7
VRATE KT-FT/1K..32 32 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 6 TO
9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (67100 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........20 20 20 4 4 4 39 39 39 30 30 30
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONESCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONESCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............54 53 58 65 72 73 74 73 71 72 74 76
RH..............80 80 75 58 46 44 44 46 49 46 43 39
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 4 4 4 7 7 7 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 7 10 10 10 15 15 15 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 2.8 2.8 6.0 6.0 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.4 7.7 7.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE S SW SW SW SW SW SW W SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 7 9 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 3 14 14 36 36 60 60 67 67 62 62
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD GD GD GD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT
WINDS.
FRIDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
SATURDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...DEVIN CLAY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2621028.0/EPZ
.DELDT 09/01/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL LCDEVIN@GMAIL.COM
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