357  
FNUS74 KEPZ 191732  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BURNT CANYON PILES...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX  
1032 AM MST TUE NOV 19 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON NOVEMBER 19.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS  
OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO  
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.  
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200-3300 FT AGL IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN  
DECREASING TO 700 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (46100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (66000  
KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO  
POOR (1800 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY (%).........22 28 49 71  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 3  
TEMP............64 67 66 59  
RH..............21 20 23 34  
20 FT WIND......W 12 W 12 W 12 W 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.16 17 16 16  
MIX HGT (FT)....2200 3300 2800 700  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 21 W 24 W 18 W 9  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..46 66 46 2  
VENTRATE CAT....FAIR GOOD FAIR POOR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS  
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 12  
TO 13 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........80 98 93 89 84 79  
WEATHER COV.....NONE SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD SCTTRD NUMRUS  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 40 60 70 70 80  
LAL.............3 5 5 5 5 5  
TEMP............54 50 49 49 48 46  
RH..............43 56 68 74 80 89  
20 FT WIND......W 13 W 16 SW 14 SW 12 SW 12 SW 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.18 21 18 16 16 18  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 700 300 200 100 200  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 13 SW 23 W 14 W 7 SW 10 SW 12  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 15 6 1 2 0  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN  
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING, BECOMING SCATTERED  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.  
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO  
THE WEST 21 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-3700 FT AGL  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN  
DECREASING TO 1200 FT AGL LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 41 TO  
42 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN DECREASING TO  
AROUND 32 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (63800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD  
(124100 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (153900 KNOT-FT) LATE  
IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO GOOD (99100  
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO  
POOR (22400 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........72 56 44 40  
WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 40 20 10  
LAL.............5 5 1 1  
TEMP............45 50 55 52  
RH..............93 66 51 49  
20 FT WIND......SW 15G20 SW 21G29 SW 24G35 W 22G32  
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 2300 3700 3000  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 21 W 41 W 49 W 41  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..18 94 154 99  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR GOOD EXNT GOOD  
 

 
FORECASTER...HEFNER  
REQUESTED BY...KATIE EIKANGER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1918981.1/EPZ  
.DELDT 11/19/19  
.EMAIL NMADC@FIRENET.GOV  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab NM Page Main Text Page