261  
FNUS74 KEPZ 202238  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BOTELLA 6...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
438 PM MDT WED OCT 20 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1700 MDT ON OCTOBER 20.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS  
POSSIBLE FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33.  
MAX HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4 TO 5 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (300 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM  
SKY (%).........9 9 9 20 20 20  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............65 52 45 40 37 34  
RH..............20 31 40 50 54 61  
20 FT WIND......SW 8 SW 6 SW 5 SW 3 SW 3 SW 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 8 6 6 5 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....1700 200 100 100 100 100  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 10 SW 5 SW 3 SW 5 SW 5 SW 3  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 5 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 6 6 0 0 0  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.  
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400-9300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 18 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD  
(117900 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM  
SKY (%).........14 14 14 8 8 8  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............35 33 48 65 69 70  
RH..............56 63 37 23 20 20  
20 FT WIND......SW 5 SW 6 SW 8 SW 10 W 12 W 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 8 11 14 16 14  
MIX HGT (FT)....100 BLW100 1400 7000 9300 7400  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3 SW 2 SW 2 SW 12 SW 18 SW 18  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 6 6 118 118 118  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR VYGD VYGD VYGD  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.  
MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-500 FT AGL EARLY  
IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4 TO 5 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (300 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 5 PM 8 PM 11 PM 2 AM  
SKY (%).........9 9 6 6  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............68 51 42 37  
RH..............23 42 55 64  
20 FT WIND......W 8G12 SW 6 SW 5G6 SW 5G6  
MIX HGT (FT)....2800 500 100 100  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 14 S 5 SW 2 SW 5  
HAINES INDEX....2 3 2 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..12 12 0 0  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.  
MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-7400 FT AGL IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 16 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (85100  
KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 5 AM 9 AM 1 PM  
SKY (%).........5 5 5  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1  
TEMP............38 50 69  
RH..............70 52 24  
20 FT WIND......SW 6G7 SW 7G10 W 12G14  
MIX HGT (FT)....100 1300 7400  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5 SW 6 SW 17  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 6 85  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD  
 

 
FORECASTER...HEFNER  
REQUESTED BY...ROBERT FARMER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2119848.0/EPZ  
.DELDT 10/20/21  
.EMAIL NMADC@FIRENET.GOV  
 
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