268
FNUS74 KEPZ 132359
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR HUMMINGBIRD FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
559 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON MAY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
STAGNANT AND CONSISTENT DRY, WARM WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE LEADING TO WEDNESDAY'S RAIN SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA MOVING FORWARD. THERE
WILL BE NO CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIND OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MIN RH 10 TO 15% EACH DAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. REPEATING PATTERN OF NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS EACH
DAY, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND TOMORROW AND SUNDAY. FUEL
CONDITIONS WILL DRY QUICKLY, LIFTING ERCS TOWARD THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. NEXT RED FLAG MAY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID-MAY.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 13 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 25
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (166400 KNOT-FT) IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........10 10 10 2 2 2 0 0 0 1 1 1
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............48 47 50 57 64 64 65 67 68 68 68 68
RH..............34 34 31 24 18 17 17 16 15 15 15 15
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 7 7 7 12 12 12 13 13 13
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 7 17 17 17 24 24 24 25 25 25
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.5 2.5 3.2 4.4 5.4 6.3 7.0 7.9 8.1 7.8 7.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 9 17 22 23 24 25 24 24 23 22 21
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 17 38 60 87 114 138 148 166 162 149 138
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR GD GD VGD VGD VGD EXL EXL VGD VGD
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MAX HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH
EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (126300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO GOOD (96200 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT DECREASING TO POOR (200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 10 PM 2 AM
SKY (%).........4 3 2
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0
TEMP............65 53 46
RH..............16 26 32
20 FT WIND......W 12G23 W 9G20 W 4G12
MIX HGT (FT)....7400 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 20 W 17 W 14
VRATE KT-FT/1K..126 0 7
VENTRATE CAT....VYGD POOR POOR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........14 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10600 FT AGL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (101900 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
SKY (%).........3 2 3
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0
TEMP............39 58 66
RH..............42 22 14
20 FT WIND......W 2G8 W 5G13 SW 7G16
MIX HGT (FT)....500 4600 10200
TRANSPORT WIND..W 9 W 8 W 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 30 84
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SATURDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 6 MPH.
SUNDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.
FORECASTER...DENNHARDT
REQUESTED BY...E-651
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613499.2/EPZ
.DELDT 05/13/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL LUKE.CUSOMATO@GMAIL.COM
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