862
FNUS74 KEPZ 241834
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1234 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0000 MDT ON JUNE 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED (30-50% COVERAGE) RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING, WITH THE
MAIN CONCERN BEING SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS OVER THE FIRE PERIMETER DUE
TO STRONG OUTFLOW FROM RAIN/VIRGA. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ALL AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO DETECT
AHEAD OF TIME, GIVEN THE LOW INTENSITY OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MINIMAL. ALL CLEAR AFTER 11PM TONIGHT, WITH WINDS NEARLY CALM
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED (30-40%) SHOWERS AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT TO THE FIRE
PERIMETER. VENT RATES BECOMING EXCELLENT AFTER 11AM TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS BECOMING DRY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NO RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM-INDUCED WIND.
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-81.
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 23 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 21 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (176800 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........20 5 52 54
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE CHANCE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 50 60
TEMP............59 69 76 74
RH..............48 35 26 33
20 FT WIND......SW 3G12 W 5G21 W 8G23 W 7G23
MIX HGT (FT)....700 4400 10100 6800
TRANSPORT WIND..W 9 W 14 W 20 W 18
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 57 172 112
VENTRATE CAT....POOR FAIR EXNT VYGD
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MAX HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 21 MPH EARLY
IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 12
TO 13 MPH OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST
AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (78300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (5400 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
SKY (%).........43 24 17 32
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
TSTM COV........S CHC NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 0 0
TEMP............71 65 61 60
RH..............38 49 51 52
20 FT WIND......W 6G21 W 5G14 W 5G14 W 5G14
MIX HGT (FT)....4400 600 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 17 W 13 W 12 W 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..66 7 6 6
VENTRATE CAT....GOOD POOR POOR POOR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-82.
MIN HUMIDITY........22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 26 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10800 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 23
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (213300 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........16 16 23 33
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 20 20
TEMP............58 68 77 78
RH..............53 37 23 23
20 FT WIND......SW 4G15 SW 7G23 SW 10G26 SW 10G26
MIX HGT (FT)....600 4700 10500 10200
TRANSPORT WIND..W 12 SW 16 SW 21 SW 22
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 66 197 189
VENTRATE CAT....POOR GOOD EXNT EXNT
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
SUNDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
FORECASTER...DENNHARDT
REQUESTED BY...DANIEL LONDON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2616124.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/24/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV,JOSHUA.JOHNSON@USDA.GOV,DANIEL.LONDON@USDA.GOV
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