104  
FNUS74 KEPZ 241957  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR CREEK PILE RX-D7...GILA NATIONAL FOREST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
1257 PM MST WED FEB 24 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1700 MST ON FEBRUARY 24.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A  
SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR TOMORROW BEHIND A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT.  
WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE BREEZY OVER THE COMING DAYS AS  
ONE TROUGH PASSES TOMORROW AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGS  
INTO ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE  
WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS  
WITH POOR TO FAIR RECOVERIES.  
 
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31.  
MAX HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 23 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM  
SKY (%).........16 15 14 14 19 24  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............51 44 41 39 36 34  
RH..............14 23 24 27 30 37  
20 FT WIND......W 16 W 12 W 7 W 7 W 6 NW 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.23 16 10 10 8 7  
HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 3 3  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.  
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22  
MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6800-8500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 4 TO 5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 25 TO  
26 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (48200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT  
(195500 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM  
SKY (%).........29 21 13 5 5 5  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............35 35 43 49 52 54  
RH..............36 39 27 23 18 15  
20 FT WIND......NE 4 NE 5 NW 9 W 11 W 13 W 13  
20 FT WIND GUST. 10 13 18 23 23  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 100 3000 6800 8500 8300  
TRANSPORT WIND..N 3 NE 1 N 7 SW 18 W 25 W 28  
HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 0 20 83 172 186  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR GOOD EXNT EXNT  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 27.  
MAX HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 3 TO 8 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 5 PM 8 PM 11 PM 2 AM  
SKY (%).........5 8 4 4  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............50 40 36 32  
RH..............17 26 34 37  
20 FT WIND......W 11G18 NW 8G12 NE 6G12 N 5G10  
HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.  
MIN HUMIDITY........14 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-3900 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (25200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (93000  
KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 5 AM 9 AM 1 PM  
SKY (%).........10 16 8  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1  
TEMP............31 42 53  
RH..............37 23 16  
20 FT WIND......NE 5G10 W 8G12 W 10G18  
MIX HGT (FT)....100 1000 3600  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 2 W 7 NW 12  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 5 78  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD  
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
 
   
FRIDAY
 
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.  
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.    
SATURDAY
 
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH.    
SUNDAY
 
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST  
WINDS AROUND 13 MPH.  
 

 
FORECASTER...GRZYWACZ  
REQUESTED BY...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2102551.4/EPZ  
.DELDT 02/24/21  
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab NM Page Main Text Page