047
FNUS74 KEPZ 282207
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR SAPILLO PILES - D5 PILES RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
407 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1600 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES
CREATING FREQUENT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RAIN WILL
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL. DRIER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (52000 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 4 PM
SKY (%).........87
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).80
TEMP............69
RH..............68
20 FT WIND......S 9G20
MIX HGT (FT)....3500
TRANSPORT WIND..S 17
VRATE KT-FT/1K..52
VENTRATE CAT....FAIR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (12600 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 10 PM 2 AM
SKY (%).........87 84 90
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE S CHC S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).90 90 90
TEMP............64 59 57
RH..............84 96 100
20 FT WIND......S 7G14 S 7G14 S 7G14
MIX HGT (FT)....1600 1500 1600
TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 S 12 SW 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..16 14 16
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11400 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........97 97 81 86
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).100 100 100 90
TEMP............56 56 60 61
RH..............100 100 100 90
20 FT WIND......SE 7G14 SE 7G16 SE 8G16 S 8G16
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 1300 2200 2200
TRANSPORT WIND..S 12 S 15 S 15 S 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..11 17 28 22
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH.
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 7 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
FORECASTER...HEFNER
REQUESTED BY...L CARVER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622707.0/EPZ
.DELDT 09/28/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL LIZ.CARVER@USDA.GOV
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