104
FNUS74 KEPZ 171709
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR SACATON...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1109 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON JULY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH EXPECTED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND AN INCH WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 2". THIS
WILL LEAD TO ATTENDANT FLASH FLOOD RISK AS WELL, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE BURN SCAR. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE CHANCES DECREASE NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
EXPECT VARIABLE SKIES WITH CUMULUS BUILD-UPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, DRIVEN BY TERRAIN, WITH POOR SMOKE
VENTILATION.
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (27000 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM
SKY (%).........41 41 28 62 62 80
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE S CHC LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE S CHC LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 20 70 70 80
TEMP............50 56 66 70 67 62
RH..............88 80 53 44 49 67
20 FT WIND......W 1 W 1 W 2 W 3 W 3 SW 3
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 7 9 9 10
MIX HGT (FT)....600 2600 4700 5400 3800 2400
TRANSPORT WIND..W 7 W 8 W 7 W 6 W 5 SW 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 18 25 26 19 14
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
SATURDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 3 AM.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 6 TO 9
MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3300 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM
SKY (%).........72 72 71 81 81 87
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 20 20 20 30
TEMP............63 63 57 55 54 52
RH..............65 66 79 79 80 85
20 FT WIND......W 2 W 2 W 2 NW 0 NW 0 NW 0
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 9 6 6 5
MIX HGT (FT)....1900 1200 600 600 600 600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 8 NW 9 N 7 NW 7 N 7 N 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..14 9 3 3 4 5
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (37200 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) MIDNGT 3 AM 6 AM 9 AM
SKY (%).........62 51 68 72
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE S CHC DEFNTE DEFNTE
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 90 90
TEMP............51 61 69 65
RH..............86 67 47 58
20 FT WIND......NW 0G5 N 1G6 SE 2G8 SW 2G9
MIX HGT (FT)....900 2400 5900 4100
TRANSPORT WIND..N 7 N 7 E 7 S 7
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 16 36 24
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
TUESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND
50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...NMSDC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617478.1/EPZ
.DELDT 07/17/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV
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