575
FNUS74 KEPZ 012229
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR D-2 SLASH PIT...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
329 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MST ON FEBRUARY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LEND TO GENERALLY
BENIGN CONDITIONS NEAR THE BURN SITE. MINRH WILL BE ELEVATED,
STAYING ABOVE 40 PERCENT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL CREATE POOR VENTILATION OF AROUND 25KT-FT NEAR THE BURN,
WITH RATES IMPROVING FURTHER EAST. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY BUT REMAIN IN THE POOR CATEGORY AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN TAKES SHAPE TO OUR WEST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FALL IN
BEHIND THE PREVIOUS DAY'S SHORTWAVE, LETTING THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY FALL INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY
AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT SURGES
INTO THE AREA, LASTING UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. THE EASTERLY PUSH WILL
ALSO RESULT IN INCREASED HUMIDITY, WITH VALUES CLOSER TO MONDAY'S
READINGS. VENTILATION, HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER,
BORDERING ON FAIR.
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1200 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........46 46 46 41 41 41 20 20 20
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............34 38 40 41 42 42 44 42 42
RH..............56 52 48 48 46 48 45 48 46
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 10 10 10 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 17 17 17 17 17 17
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 14 16 18 20 20 20 18 16
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 6 15 22 25 25 17 11 2
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
MONDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 27.
MAX HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........24 24 24 43 43 43 40 40 40 40 40 40
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............39 37 37 37 36 35 34 34 33 32 31 30
RH..............50 52 52 52 52 54 56 54 56 56 58 58
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W N N N NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 16 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W NW NW NW N N N NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 16 15 14 13 12 10 9 9 9 10 10
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING,
THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 6 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 8
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
WEST 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........24 24 24 11 11 11 5 5 5 5 5 5
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............28 28 28 31 36 40 42 43 43 43 42 40
RH..............63 63 63 56 45 39 38 38 39 41 43 46
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E SW SW SW W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.17 17 17 14 14 14 9 9 9 9 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.1 1.1 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E SE S SW W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 9 8 7 7 8 10 12 12 12 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..0 0 0 4 9 13 18 26 28 21 11 3
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
WEDNESDAY
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH TO EAST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH, GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT
WINDS.
FORECASTER...BREITREITER
REQUESTED BY...MATTHEW BARONE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2601473.0/EPZ
.DELDT 02/01/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MATTHEW.BARONE@USDA.GOV
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