115
FNUS74 KEPZ 151739
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR SEVEN CABINS...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1139 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1128 MDT ON MAY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...
DISCUSSION
EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS TO SETTLE IN TO A GENERAL WEST TO EAST DIRECTION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM WNW TO WSW WITH
THE TERRAIN, AND RIDGETOP WINDS COULD GUST CLOSER TO 30 MPH TOWARDS
LATE AFTERNOON.
AFTER SUNSET, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE -- STAYING STRONGER (15
MPH, GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH) FROM THE WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE CAPITANS, BUT WITH LIGHTER W TO WNW
(DOWNSLOPE) WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING SLOPES. WINDS LOOK TO STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CREST AND NORTH-FACING
SLOPES. THE TABULAR DATA BELOW REFLECTS THE CREST AND NORTHERN SLOPES.
WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE LATE SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT WILL SETTLE BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONGER SW WINDS
PERSISTING ON THE NORTH SLOPES, AND LIGHTER WINDS ON THE SOUTH SLOPES.
WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT, RH VALUES WILL NOT RECOVER WELL, AND
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN WIND IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR SUNDAY,
AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS MAY BE MET.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN HUMIDITY........16 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 23 TO 26 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (218200 KNOT-FT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
TIME (MDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
SKY (%).........14 12 6 6
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............72 73 70 66
RH..............22 20 18 19
20 FT WIND......VRB 10 WSW 14 W 15 W 15
20 FT WIND GUST.15 25 30 30
MIX HGT (FT)....10500 11600 11400 10300
TRANSPORT WIND..W 26 W 25 W 24 W 23
VRATE KT-FT/1K..233 266 239 218
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT EXNT EXNT EXNT
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 15 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 33
MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (163800 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(7900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........3 3 3 4 4 2
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............62 58 56 55 53 52
RH..............19 17 17 14 15 14
20 FT WIND......W 16 W 16 W 16 W 15 W 15 W 16
20 FT WIND GUST.33 33 31 30 30 31
MIX HGT (FT)....10000 600 600 600 500 600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 22 SW 17 SW 18 W 20 W 20 W 20
VRATE KT-FT/1K..190 9 9 10 9 9
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN HUMIDITY........9 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 31 MPH
IN THE MORNING THEN 35 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12600 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 10
TO 17 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING
TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (109000 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (108900
KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (167700 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........3 1 2 1
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............52 59 68 69
RH..............17 15 10 8
20 FT WIND......W 15G31 SW 10G22 SW 8G21 SW 15G35
MIX HGT (FT)....500 2900 11100 12600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 20 W 20 S 12 SW 15
VRATE KT-FT/1K..9 49 111 163
VENTRATE CAT....POOR FAIR VYGD EXNT
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........10 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 14 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 33
MPH INCREASING TO 44 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 29 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 30
TO 36 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (47100 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (229700
KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........5 2 3 3
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............50 55 60 62
RH..............19 18 13 11
20 FT WIND......W 15G31 SW 14G26 SW 15G33 SW 20G44
MIX HGT (FT)....600 4700 8000 9500
TRANSPORT WIND..W 20 W 28 SW 29 SW 32
VRATE KT-FT/1K..10 114 201 267
VENTRATE CAT....POOR VYGD EXNT EXNT
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 21 MPH.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 14 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.
FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...ROY HOUGH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613657.1/EPZ
.DELDT 05/15/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMADC@FIRENET.GOV
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