894
FNUS74 KEPZ 241616
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR JACKS PEAK...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1016 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1000 MDT ON JULY 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
WE WILL HAVE LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OUR WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE OUTFLOW WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP. MIN RH'S TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20'S TO
LOWER 30'S. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (AND OUTFLOW
WINDS) ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THEN LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO START
NEXT WEEK. WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE TO STAY LIGHT FOR NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (69300 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........11 11 20 20 20 60 60 60
WEATHER COV.....NONENONECHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........NONENONECHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 30 30 30 40 40 40
TEMP............79 81 84 85 85 86 85 83
RH..............34 32 29 27 27 26 28 31
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 6 6 6 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 13 13 13 10 10 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.9 6.9 10 10 11 11 8.1 8.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W S
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 9 7 7 7 7 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..69 69 68 68 68 68 48 48
VENTRATE CAT....GD GD GD GD GD GD FR FR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 8 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH LATE IN THE
EVENING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10 MPH
LATE IN THE EVENING SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3700 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........71 71 86 75 75 61
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 20 10 10 10
TEMP............81 76 73 72 69 67
RH..............37 46 51 51 59 63
20 FT WIND......SE 3 SE 3 E 4 SE 3 SE 3 S 3
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 9 9 9
MIX HGT (FT)....3300 600 800 600 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..S 9 S 9 NE 9 SE 8 SE 10 S 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..27 5 7 5 5 4
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
5 TO 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (50200 KNOT-FT) .
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........47 27 35 41
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 30 30
TEMP............66 72 81 82
RH..............61 48 34 34
20 FT WIND......W 3G9 NW 2G9 E 3G12 S 5G13
MIX HGT (FT)....500 2000 7600 7200
TRANSPORT WIND..W 8 SW 8 SE 5 SE 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 14 38 50
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR FAIR
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SUNDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT WINDS.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LIGHT
WINDS.
TUESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FORECASTER...BRICE
REQUESTED BY...JORDAN JOHNSTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2618136.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/24/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JUAN.MONTOYA@USDA.GOV,NICHOLAS.FORD@USDA.GOV,NMADC@FIRENET.GOV,JONATHAN.CRANE@USDA.GOV,JORDAN.P.JOHNSTON@USDA.GOV,ROY.HOUGH@USDA.GOV
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