779
FNUS74 KEPZ 251219
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR RX ARRASTRA...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
619 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS (10-20%) THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH
FROM THE SOUTHEAST, SHIFTING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE FOR TODAY, REACHING THE GOOD CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCES RETURNING ON SUNDAY. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT THIS WEEKEND, SHIFTING SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. MEDIUM-HIGH
RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 10
TO 13 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (71100 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........53 49 19 29 41
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE S CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 20
TEMP............52 59 64 63 66
RH..............100 93 75 75 65
20 FT WIND......SE 7 SE 7 S 8 S 8 S 8
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 17 17 17
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 2700 5100 6200 6100
TRANSPORT WIND..E 9 S 9 S 12 S 13 S 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..9 25 48 68 71
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 7 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN
THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (60200 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........20 20 20 30 30 23
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 0 0 0 0
TEMP............68 61 55 54 54 53
RH..............59 72 83 86 83 83
20 FT WIND......S 7 S 7 E 5 E 4 E 4 E 4
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 9 9 9 8
MIX HGT (FT)....5500 500 500 500 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..W 13 SW 7 SE 7 E 7 SE 7 E 7
VRATE KT-FT/1K..60 20 0 3 3 3
VENTRATE CAT....GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 8 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 6 TO
10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON,
THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 10 MPH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (64700 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........22 22 31 33
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............53 57 69 71
RH..............83 86 53 47
20 FT WIND......E 4G8 E 4G9 SW 7G15 SW 8G17
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1100 6600 7300
TRANSPORT WIND..E 7 E 6 SW 8 SW 10
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 6 53 65
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
TUESDAY
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
FORECASTER...ARONSON
REQUESTED BY...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622435.2/EPZ
.DELDT 09/25/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL MMUNOZ@BLM.GOV,GROMERO@BLM.GOV,NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV,JSELBY@BLM.GOV
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