598
FNUS74 KEPZ 311507
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR DRY CANYON FIRE...BIA-MESCALERO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
907 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0900 MDT ON MAY 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
ONE MORE DAY OF VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS,
ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS OVER 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
MOISTURE STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP
WITH RH'S FOR MONDAY AND AN EVEN BETTER MOISTURE PUSH FOR TUE/WED
WHEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WITH THESE STORMS TUE/WED AND CONTINUING,
BUT WITH LESSER COVERAGE GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........10 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 20
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2600 KNOT-FT) EARLY INCREASING
EXCELLENT (171200 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........3 3 3 5 5 5 2 2 2
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............65 71 74 75 77 78 77 77 76
RH..............25 20 15 11 11 10 10 10 11
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 9 9 9 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 16 22 22 22 22 22 22
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.3 6.6 8.6 9.2 9.7 10 9.7 9.4 8.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 15 18 18 20 20 20 18 17
VRATE KT-FT/1K..39 86 138 148 166 171 164 150 134
VENTRATE CAT....PR GD VGD VGD EXL EXL EXL VGD VGD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (110100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO GOOD (63700 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT DECREASING TO POOR (3200 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........4 4 4 7 7 7 4 4 4 5 5 5
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............74 72 70 67 65 63 61 59 57 55 54 52
RH..............11 12 15 17 18 20 25 30 33 38 43 48
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.17 17 17 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...8.5 6.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 12 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9
VRATE KT-FT/1K..110 64 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
VENTRATE CAT....VGD GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
(45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12300 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 10 TO 14
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (111100 KNOT-FT)
IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........17 17 17 6 6 6 58 58 58 38 38 38
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONECHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONESCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 30 30 30
TEMP............52 53 57 64 70 74 77 78 77 76 77 77
RH..............42 40 34 29 24 22 20 20 21 22 21 20
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 8 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.9 4.0 6.9 9.7 11 12 12 8.2 8.2 5.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW SW SW SW SW S S S E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 9 10 14
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 3 12 24 48 68 89 111 105 66 74 64
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR FR GD GD VGD VGD GD GD GD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
TUESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
FORECASTER...GRZYWACZ
REQUESTED BY...ROAN ALLEN - ICT4 (T)
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2614704.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/31/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ALDON.CORIZ@BIA.GOV,NATHAN.ROBINSON@USDA.GOV,ROANALLEN5@GMAIL.COM
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