724  
FNUS74 KEPZ 221208  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR 2025 GILA SEVERITY...US FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
608 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2025  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1200 MDT ON JUNE 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION  
 
FOR TODAY, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP  
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 MPH, GUSTING TO 25 MPH.  
VENTILATION WILL BE EXCELLENT WITH LOW HUMIDITY, RESULTING IN  
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. NO SHOWERS OR  
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR TONIGHT  
AS LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPS FROM HIGH TO LOW ELEVATIONS. STORM  
CHANCES INCREASE LATE ON MONDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS MONDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF HEAVY  
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODS INCREASES TUESDAY WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF  
STORMS EXPECTED WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING. THE STORM THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES FROM WEDNESDAY  
ONWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  
   
REST OF TODAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.  
MIN HUMIDITY........8 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 28 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (174600 KNOT-FT).  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 TO 28 MPH.  
 
TIME (MDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........5 5 6  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0  
TEMP............75 77 78  
RH..............11 9 9  
20 FT WIND......SW 12 SW 12 SW 13  
20 FT WIND GUST.28 28 28  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 28 SW 25 SW 25  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..155 186 166  
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT EXNT EXNT  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.  
MAX HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 24 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (118600 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR  
(3500 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 16 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 10 PM 2 AM  
SKY (%).........7 9 5  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0  
TEMP............77 61 51  
RH..............10 19 34  
20 FT WIND......SW 9G24 W 3G13 W 2G8  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 16 W 10 W 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..119 7 4  
VENTRATE CAT....VYGD POOR POOR  
   
MONDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.  
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH IN THE  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (60400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT  
(171800 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 19  
TO 21 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM  
SKY (%).........6 5 12  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10  
TEMP............46 71 81  
RH..............49 25 16  
20 FT WIND......NE 2G7 S 6G18 S 12G24  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 9 S 19 S 21  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..60 172 189  
VENTRATE CAT....GOOD EXNT EXNT  
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5  
   
TUESDAY  
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY  
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS.    
THURSDAY  
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS.  
 
 
FORECASTER...ARONSON  
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT REID  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2516386.0/EPZ  
.DELDT 06/22/25  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL SCOTT.REID@USDA.GOV  
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