261
FNUS74 KEPZ 202238
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR BOTELLA 6...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
438 PM MDT WED OCT 20 2021
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1700 MDT ON OCTOBER 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION
DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33.
MAX HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4 TO 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (300 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MDT) 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM
SKY (%).........9 9 9 20 20 20
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............65 52 45 40 37 34
RH..............20 31 40 50 54 61
20 FT WIND......SW 8 SW 6 SW 5 SW 3 SW 3 SW 3
20 FT WIND GUST.13 8 6 6 5 5
MIX HGT (FT)....1700 200 100 100 100 100
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 10 SW 5 SW 3 SW 5 SW 5 SW 3
HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 5 5 5
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 6 6 0 0 0
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400-9300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
(117900 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MDT) 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM
SKY (%).........14 14 14 8 8 8
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............35 33 48 65 69 70
RH..............56 63 37 23 20 20
20 FT WIND......SW 5 SW 6 SW 8 SW 10 W 12 W 10
20 FT WIND GUST.6 8 11 14 16 14
MIX HGT (FT)....100 BLW100 1400 7000 9300 7400
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3 SW 2 SW 2 SW 12 SW 18 SW 18
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 2 2 2
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 6 6 118 118 118
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR VYGD VYGD VYGD
THURSDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.
MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-500 FT AGL EARLY
IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4 TO 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (300 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MDT) 5 PM 8 PM 11 PM 2 AM
SKY (%).........9 9 6 6
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
TEMP............68 51 42 37
RH..............23 42 55 64
20 FT WIND......W 8G12 SW 6 SW 5G6 SW 5G6
MIX HGT (FT)....2800 500 100 100
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 14 S 5 SW 2 SW 5
HAINES INDEX....2 3 2 3
VRATE KT-FT/1K..12 12 0 0
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-7400 FT AGL IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (85100
KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MDT) 5 AM 9 AM 1 PM
SKY (%).........5 5 5
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1
TEMP............38 50 69
RH..............70 52 24
20 FT WIND......SW 6G7 SW 7G10 W 12G14
MIX HGT (FT)....100 1300 7400
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5 SW 6 SW 17
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 6 85
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD
FORECASTER...HEFNER
REQUESTED BY...ROBERT FARMER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2119848.0/EPZ
.DELDT 10/20/21
.EMAIL NMADC@FIRENET.GOV
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