036
FNUS74 KEPZ 161506
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR LILLEY FIRE...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
906 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0900 MDT ON JULY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A HIGH
CHANCE (80%) OF SEEING RAIN AT THE WILDFIRE. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL
AMOUNT WOULD RANGE 0.25-0.50", BUT THERE IS ABOUT A 25% CHANCE FOR
OVER 1". FLASH FLOODING, THEREFORE, IS A CONCERN WITH ABOUT A 10%
CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AROUND NOON WITH STORM COVERAGE DECREASING LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING (AROUND 6PM). WE WILL SEE THIS PATTERN REPEAT FOR
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS, GENERALLY TERRAIN OR
THUNDERSTORM DRIVEN WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH STRATOCUMULUS THIS MORNING
BECOMING CUMULUS AND CUMULONIMBUS THIS AFTERNOON.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (41500 KNOT-FT) .
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 9 MPH.
TIME (MDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........79 59 59 79 79 79 75 75 75
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 80 80 80 70 70 70
TEMP............63 66 68 69 71 72 72 72 71
RH..............56 52 49 47 46 41 44 42 44
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 5 5 5 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 4.8 4.8 5.2 5.2 6.0 6.0 4.7 4.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SW SW SW SE S
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..17 36 36 42 42 33 33 32 32
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR FR FR PR PR PR PR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2100 KNOT-FT).
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........55 55 55 39 39 39 41 41 41 23 23 23
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH NONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH NONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0
TEMP............70 67 63 60 59 58 56 55 55 54 53 52
RH..............45 52 60 69 72 75 77 77 77 80 86 86
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 7 7 7 5 5 5 3 3 3
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.6 4.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW W SW SW W SW SW S SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 8 7 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 6
VRATE KT-FT/1K..32 32 12 12 2 2 4 4 3 3 2 2
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (40700 KNOT-FT) .
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 6 TO 10
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........23 23 23 21 21 21 41 41 41 51 51 51
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONESCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........NONENONENONESCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 20 20 20 60 60 60 70 70 70
TEMP............52 55 58 61 64 67 69 70 71 72 72 71
RH..............86 74 75 65 58 52 47 45 42 42 42 46
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 4 4 4 7 7 7 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.3 3 3 12 12 12 14 14 14 14 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 2.1 2.1 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.5 4.2 4.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW S S S S S S S SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 4 12 12 32 32 41 41 39 39 39 39
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR PR PR PR PR
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...JAMES FLINT
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617475.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/16/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JAMES.FLINT@USDA.GOV
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