371  
FNUS74 KEPZ 042123  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR 2025 PROGRAMMATIC PILES...USDA FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
323 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 MDT ON JULY 04.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION  
 
DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN RH. MINRH TODAY  
NEAR THE BURN WILL PLUMMET AROUND 30 PERCENT COMPARED TO  
THURSDAY'S READINGS, SETTLING AROUND 30 PERCENT. TYPICAL AFTERNOON  
BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS STAYING GENERALLY BELOW 20  
MPH. GIVEN THE LOW MAGNITUDES, WINDS WILL FAVOR TERRAIN INFLUENCES  
FOR THEIR DIRECTIONS. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE FROM THURSDAY,  
WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
WILL RETURN SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT FAVORING THE HIGH  
TERRAIN.  
   
REST OF TODAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.  
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (98800 KNOT-FT).  
 
TIME (MDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........6 6 6  
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONE  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........NONENONENONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0  
TEMP............72 72 72  
RH..............35 35 34  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.6 6.6 6.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 18 18  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..99 99 99  
VENTRATE CAT....GD GD GD  
   
TONIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.  
MAX HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 13 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (75200 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (0 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 4  
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............72 73 70 66 63 61 60 60 59 58 58 58  
RH..............35 34 38 43 48 49 51 51 53 55 53 51  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW W W W W W W NW NW NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.18 18 18 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW W W W W NW NW NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 13 13 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..75 75 75 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
VENTRATE CAT....GD GD GD GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
SATURDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.  
MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......9700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 7  
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (33800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO GOOD (67800 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........5 5 5 4 4 4 8 8 8 43 43 43  
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10  
TEMP............57 58 62 67 73 76 77 78 78 78 79 78  
RH..............53 51 44 36 28 25 24 23 24 25 24 24  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.16 16 16 16 16 16 14 14 14 15 15 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N E E E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 17 17 17 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..34 34 34 34 60 60 60 60 68 68 68 68  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR GD GD GD GD GD GD GD GD  
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5  
   
SUNDAY  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE  
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
MONDAY  
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE  
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.    
TUESDAY  
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE  
MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS.  
 
 
FORECASTER...BREITREITER  
REQUESTED BY...MATTHEW BARONE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2517344.0/EPZ  
.DELDT 07/04/25  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL MATTHEW.BARONE@USDA.GOV  
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