094  
FNUS74 KEPZ 132143  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CUB...GILA NATIONAL FOREST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
343 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1600 MDT ON JULY 13.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUESDAY, BUT  
REMAIN 4 - 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST  
AND LIGHT TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BEGINNING  
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER NOON. WETTING RAINS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM  
OUTFLOWS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS FOR STORMS THIS PERIOD. RH INCREASES  
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH MIN VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT  
THROUGH THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY BRINGS THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN,  
BUT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......15 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.  
MAX HUMIDITY........51-55 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........STARTING SOUTHWEST THEN BECOMING  
NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-700 FT AGL EARLY IN  
THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 8 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........43 60 40 37 34 68  
WEATHER COV.....S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............2 2 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............82 77 70 67 65 62  
RH..............22 27 34 38 41 47  
20 FT WIND......W 8 SW 8 NW 7 NW 7 NW 6 N 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 11 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....2900 700 BLW100 300 200 100  
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 15 W 7 W 3 W 7 W 8 W 7  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..44 15 0 2 2 0  
VENTRATE CAT....FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200, THEN 2 UNTIL 1500, THEN 3 UNTIL  
1600, THEN 4.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-85.  
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12900-13300 FT  
AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (44700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT  
(188200 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........79 38 37 50 65 62  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE S CHNC S CHNC CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE S CHNC S CHNC CHANCE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 10 10 20 30  
LAL.............1 1 1 2 2 4  
TEMP............59 67 77 82 83 84  
RH..............53 41 28 22 21 20  
20 FT WIND......N 7 N 5 N 6 NW 7 NW 9 W 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 6 7 10 12 14  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 1700 6000 10800 13300 12900  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 6 NW 9 NW 12 W 12 W 14 W 16  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 10 45 100 157 188  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD EXNT EXNT  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-59.  
MAX HUMIDITY........47-49 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 7 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (121400 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR  
(0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL  
FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM  
SKY (%).........60 49 38 45  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............82 73 67 63  
RH..............18 27 33 40  
20 FT WIND......W 7G10 NW 7G10 NW 7G10 N 7G8  
MIX HGT (FT)....9000 2500 200 200  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 18 W 14 W 6 W 6  
HAINES INDEX....5 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..170 13 2 1  
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT POOR POOR POOR  
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
 
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. LIGHT WINDS.    
THURSDAY
 
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN  
THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.    
FRIDAY
 
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN  
THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
FORECASTER...DHUYVETTER  
REQUESTED BY...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2009227.2/EPZ  
.DELDT 07/13/20  
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV  
 
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