157
FNUS74 KEPZ 172205
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR SEVEN CABINS...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
405 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON MAY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT MONDAY
DISCUSSION
RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 11 PM MONDAY. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST AT 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
40-45 MPH AFTER 0200. GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WITH MORNING RH VALUES STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 15 PERCENT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, REMAINING
OUT OF THE WEST. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ON MONDAY WILL BE 7-11 PERCENT WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT (2000-2200), WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE, BECOMING 7-15 MPH
BY 0200 AND EVENTUALLY 3-8 MPH BY 0600 OUT OF NORTH/NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT
(TUESDAY MORNING) RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE, RISING TO 27-32 PERCENT. WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH,
BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTER AT 8-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20
MPH. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE 10-13 PERCENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........INTERMITTENT CLOUDS IN THE MORNING, BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SMOKE THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-80 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-11 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BY 0600, WINDS WILL BE WEST AT 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY MID
MORNING, STILL OUT OF THE WEST AT 17-27 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH, GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER 2000, BECOMING 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000-8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 TO 37 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (13900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (110600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (240100
KNOT-FT).
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........27 27 16 4 4 5
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY PATCHY PATCHY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............62 67 70 75 78 79
RH..............15 11 10 8 8 8
20 FT WIND......W 25 W 25 W 23 W 23 W 25 W 27
20 FT WIND GUST.37-42 37-42 35-40 35-40 37-42 40-45
MIX HGT (FT)....600 2400 4200 5700 6700 7500
TRANSPORT WIND..W 29 W 35 W 36 SW 36 W 35 W 37
VRATE KT-FT/1K..14 71 129 177 200 240
VENTRATE CAT....POOR GOOD VYGD EXNT EXNT EXNT
MONDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). SMOKE IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-57 DEGREES.
MAX HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 2200, BECOMING 10-20 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. FURTHER DECREASING AFTER
0200 TO 7-15 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. THEN
LIGHT AT 3-7 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH TO EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST
EAST AFTER 0600.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 32 TO 36 MPH DECREASING TO 15 TO 23 MPH
EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN DECREASING TO AROUND
13 MPH AFTER 3 AM SHIFTING TO THE NORTH EARLY
IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (175000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(5700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........4 4 6 5 5 7
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE AREAS PATCHY PATCHY AREAS
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............78 75 72 68 65 59
RH..............9 10 11 13 17 21
20 FT WIND......W 25 W 20 W 15 W 10 W 10 W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.37-42 27-32 20-25 15-20 15-20 10-14
MIX HGT (FT)....7600 700 600 600 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..W 36 W 23 W 22 W 20 W 15 W 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..234 15 12 9 7 6
VENTRATE CAT....EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE EARLY IN
THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-80 DEGREES.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-13 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS LIGHT AT 4-8 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST, BECOMING
EAST BY 0900-1100 AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BY 1500 AT 8-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000-9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
14 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (77800 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (105400
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........20 13 8 11
WEATHER COV.....AREAS NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............55 59 68 76
RH..............29 30 23 16
20 FT WIND......N 5G9 E 8G16 SE 10G20 SE 11G20
MIX HGT (FT)....500 2200 3700 7000
TRANSPORT WIND..N 12 NE 12 E 12 S 17
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 22 37 105
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR VYGD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FORECASTER...ROGERS
REQUESTED BY...STEWART TURNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2613880.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/17/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL STURNERFORESTRY@GMAIL.COM
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