861
FNUS74 KEPZ 151103
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR APPLE TREE FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
503 AM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 MDT ON JUNE 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 5 MPH. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING BENEATH HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE CUMULUS
BUILDS UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW AREA SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER DARK WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RECOVERIES. SMOKE TRANSPORT
WILL BE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENTING.
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 6 TO 12
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (61000 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........75 75 75 44 44 44 39 39 39 43 43 43
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONESCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........NONENONENONESCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 20 20 20 30 30 30 20 20 20
TEMP............50 51 54 58 60 62 62 63 65 65 65 66
RH..............93 93 90 80 78 72 70 67 63 60 56 52
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW W W W W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 7 10 10 10 14 14 14 15 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.7 3.4 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.7 6.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N W W W W NW W W W W NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 5 6 7 7 7 7 9 9 12 12 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 2 5 11 16 21 24 36 39 53 57 61
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR GD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 6 TO
7 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (52400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (2800 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........52 52 52 51 51 51 45 45 45 36 36 36
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 40 40 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............65 65 63 58 57 55 55 54 54 52 52 51
RH..............54 54 58 69 69 77 77 80 74 77 80 83
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 14 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.2 3.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW W NW N W W W SW W W NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 7
VRATE KT-FT/1K..52 35 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VENTRATE CAT....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (95800 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (100000
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........19 19 19 7 7 7 22 22 22 17 17 17
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............50 53 57 61 66 68 70 71 71 72 72 73
RH..............86 77 67 58 47 42 38 35 34 30 27 25
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 14 14 14 17 17 17 18 18 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.5 1.5 3.3 5.4 7.2 8.5 9.2 9.6 9.4 10 9.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 8 10 13 13 12 12 12 13 14 13
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 3 11 30 60 79 85 92 96 104 121 100
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR FR GD GD GD GD VGD VGD VGD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST
WINDS AROUND 7 MPH.
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.
JUNETEENTH
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...DEVIN CLAY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2615476.1/EPZ
.DELDT 06/15/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL LCDEVIN@GMAIL.COM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page