589
FNUS74 KEPZ 120901
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR TURKEYFEATHER FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
301 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0400 MDT ON JULY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH, SHIFTING WESTERLY AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. LOW HUMIDITY
COULD ALLOW FOR DRY LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. THE ACTIVITY
LINGERS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
LOW THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD VENTILATION.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
(35-45 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........11 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 15200 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 11 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
(106700 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 4 AM 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........7 6 3 31 50
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE SCTTRD SCTTRD
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 30 50
TEMP............61 59 80 88 87
RH..............46 49 22 12 13
20 FT WIND......NW 2G3 NW 3G9 NW 6G12 W 7G16 NW 10G20
MIX HGT (FT)....1000 1000 5200 15200 11200
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 7 NW 10 NW 9 NW 9 NW 11
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 7 47 107 137
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR VYGD VYGD
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (87700 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO POOR (7100 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE
NIGHT.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........53 53 53 34 34 34 25 25 25 8 8 8
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCT SCT SCT NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............84 80 76 72 69 67 65 63 63 61 59 59
RH..............17 21 26 33 36 39 40 43 43 46 51 51
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE S S S W W W NE NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 6 6 6 3 3 3 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 14 14 14 7 7 7 6 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...8.8 4.8 1.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W SW SW SW SW S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 7
VRATE KT-FT/1K..88 58 18 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 7
VENTRATE CAT....GD FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........14 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13800 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 12
TO 13 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
(104100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (165600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........12 12 12 12 12 12 35 35 35 68 68 68
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONECHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONECHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 50
TEMP............58 57 66 70 76 82 86 88 88 87 85 83
RH..............55 55 42 39 30 21 16 14 14 14 16 20
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 3 3 3 6 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 6 10 10 10 15 15 15 16 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 12
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 6 6 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..20 20 20 20 166 166 166 166 104 104 104 104
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR EXL EXL EXL EXL VGD VGD VGD VGD
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT WINDS.
TUESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LIGHT WINDS.
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
FORECASTER...ARONSON
REQUESTED BY...SELWAY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517850.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/12/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL DAN.FAIRCHILD@USDA.GOV,AARON.L.JONES@USDA.GOV
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