176  
FNUS74 KFWD 170936  
FWSFWD  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR LOST RIDGE...TPWD  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
436 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A DEEP  
BOUNDARY LAYER AT PEAK HEATING, BUT AN INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE  
WILL KEEP THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 40 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.  
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON  
WEDNESDAY, BUT ANY RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF DELTA COUNTY.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.  
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 5  
TO 13 MPH IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 15  
TO 17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........0 0 0 0 4 5 10 12 25 18 24 28  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............75 73 75 79 85 87 90 92 94 95 94 94  
RH..............82 87 84 79 63 59 52 49 44 42 41 41  
20 FT WIND DIR..S SE E E E E E E SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 2 3 5 5 7 7 7 6 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
EYE LVL WND DIR.S SE E E E E E E SE SE SE SE  
EYE LVL WND SPD.1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
EYE LVL WND GST.  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1 2.7 4.2 5.3 6.5 6.9 7.6 7.6 7.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SE E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 5 5 6 10 13 15 16 17 17 15 15  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.  
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE  
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 15 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 3 MPH EARLY IN THE  
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........18 29 13 8 9 5 2 2 1 0 0 0  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............92 90 87 83 81 80 78 77 77 75 75 74  
RH..............46 50 55 65 72 74 79 85 87 90 90 93  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1  
20 FT WIND GUST. 4  
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S SE SE  
EYE LVL WND SPD.3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
EYE LVL WND GST.  
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 9 7 7 7  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.  
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 15  
TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST UP TO 4 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........6 11 16 20 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 50  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............74 73 75 79 83 87 89 92 93 93 93 92  
RH..............90 87 84 74 65 57 52 47 44 44 43 46  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE E E E E E E E E SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 3 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST. 4 12 12  
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE E E E E E E E E SE SE SE  
EYE LVL WND SPD.1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4  
EYE LVL WND GST. 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 1.3 2.2 3.2 4.8 5.7 6.1 6.6 7.1 4.9  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE E E E E E SE SE E E E  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 5 6 7 12 13 14 15 16 16 15  
HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
 

 
FORECASTER...HUCKABY  
REQUESTED BY...HOWARD CRENSHAW  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1915594.0/FWD  
.DELDT 09/17/19  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL HOWARD.CRENSHAW@TPWD.TEXAS.GOV  
 
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