601
FNUS74 KHGX 201204
FWSHGX
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHNF C 5 EAST...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
604 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
THE BURN SITE IS ON THE FRINGE OF THE AREAS OF FOG CROPPING UP
AROUND SOUTHEAST TEXAS, AND DENSE SPOTS MAY BE SEEN FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AROUND SOURCES OF LOCALLY HIGHER MOISTURE. AS THE SUN
RISES, FOG WILL DISSIPATE, GIVING WAY MORE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER.
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE FORECAST BECOMES ONE WITH
CONSIDERABLY LESS CONFIDENCE. A WEAK FRONT IS SITTING JUST NORTH
OF THE BURN AREA THIS MORNING, AND JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT
IS ABLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE DAY COULD RESULT IN A CONSIDERABLY
DIFFERENT WEATHER OUTCOME. THE FORECAST IN THE TABLE BELOW IS PUT
FORTH AS A "MOST LIKELY" SCENARIO, WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT VERY
NEAR, PERHAPS JUST A TINY BIT SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES MANAGE TO REACH TO OR JUST
ABOVE 70 DEGREES UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. LIGHT WINDS AROUND 5
MPH MANAGE TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
FILTER IN MUCH DRY AIR, KEEPING RH AROUND OR ABOVE 75 PERCENT.
AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO? THE FRONT MANAGES TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH
AND THROUGH MOST OF MONTGOMERY COUNTY, ALLOWING IN MORE COOLER,
DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN WITH NORTHEAST WINDS MORE IN THE 5 TO 10
MPH RANGE. THIS WOULD STILL KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY, BUT HOLD
TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. DESPITE BEING A BIT
COOLER, WITH A BIT MORE DRY AIR FILTERING IN, THIS WOULD LET RH
FALL MORE TO AROUND 50 PERCENT RATHER THAN STAYING VERY HIGH
THROUGH THE DAY. PLEASE DO NOT HESITATE TO REQUEST AN UPDATED
FORECAST IF THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT TRACKING WELL.
GREATER CONFIDENCE RETURNS TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT, AS WINDS LOOK
TO BRIEFLY SWING BACK TO BEING SOUTHEASTERLY, HELPING SPUR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG, ESPECIALLY NEAR LOCALIZED
SOURCES OF ADDED MOISTURE SUCH AS STREAMS AND EVEN REMNANT
SMOLDERING SMOKE. ANOTHER, STRONGER FRONT THEN ARRIVES ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHERLY, SWEEP OUT THE FOG
THREAT, AND BEGIN TO USHER IN MORE MEANINGFULLY DRY AIR.
REST OF TODAY
TIME (CST) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
SKY (%).........81 83 80 82 78 85 80 71 79 74
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............30 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............61 62 62 64 65 67 69 70 70 69
RH..............95 88 89 87 87 84 81 82 79 77
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE E E E NE NE
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5
20 FT WIND GUST.13 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE E E E E E E SE E SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 13 13 10 12 10 8 7 7
TONIGHT
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
SKY (%).........69 68 71 84 78 77 79 83 76 76 83 74
WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE.... FOG FOG
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............69 66 64 64 63 62 61 61 61 61 61 60
RH..............79 83 88 88 89 91 95 96 95 96 98 99
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE E E E E E SE SE SW W
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE NE NE NE NE NE E E SE SE S W
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 6
SATURDAY
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC MC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC MCR MCR MCR
SKY (%).........81 85 78 70 61 52 43 35 27 19 19 18
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG
TSTM COV........
CWR.............10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............60 59 60 62 65 68 72 74 75 75 74 72
RH..............100 100 100 97 84 72 60 52 47 43 41 41
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 5 6 6 8 9 10 10 10 10 12
20 FT WIND GUST.8 10 13 14 15 17 18 21 23 24 25 25
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.1 2.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW N N N N N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 7 8 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 20
FORECASTER...LUCHS
REQUESTED BY...STEVE FOSTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2603302.0/HGX
.DELDT 02/20/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL STEVEN.FOSTER@USDA.GOV
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