183  
FNUS74 KMAF 111518  
FWSMAF  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR RGV ADMIN PILE BURN...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
1018 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CDT ON JUNE 12.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BURN  
AREA, WITH VERY GOOD RECOVERY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE  
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF  
AROUND 100 DEGREES EXPECTED, THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED,  
YIELDING MIN RH AROUND 24-25%. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
EARLY, SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY 1500-1600 LOCAL AS A COLD FRONT  
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, AND CONTINUING TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH  
THE EVENING. GOOD TO VERY GOOD RECOVERY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
FOLLOWED BY SIMILAR CONDITIONS THURSDAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON, HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES, AND MIN RH  
AROUND 25%. 20FT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH OR LESS FOR  
THE DURATION.  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 99.  
MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTH 6 TO 11  
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......10600 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
AROUND 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (64000 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY COVER.......PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............73 82 90 95 99  
RH..............71 51 38 30 24  
20 FT WIND DIR..E NE N N N  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 2 3 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....700 2300 4400 7100 9700  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S E NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 3 3 7  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 12 13 21 58  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR FAIR  
   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.  
MAX HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL EARLY IN  
THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (72000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (6000 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM  
SKY COVER.......PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............98 87 81 77  
RH..............24 36 53 64  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..13 13 10 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....10900 4900 1700 1600  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE E SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 14 14 12  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..66 59 20 16  
VENTRATE CAT....GOOD FAIR POOR POOR  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 101.  
MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......9500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10700 FT AGL LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 11 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (96000 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............72 80 92 99  
RH..............73 54 33 26  
20 FT WIND DIR..E E SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 9 11  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....200 2400 6200 9500  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 9 12 10  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 19 62 85  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD  
 

 
FORECASTER...PHILLIPSON  
REQUESTED BY...DERRICK NAHILL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1910692.0/MAF  
.DELDT 06/11/19  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
 
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