429  
FNUS74 KSJT 062336  
FWSSJT  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR 2021 HOMECOMING RX BURN...WINCHELL FIRE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
636 PM CDT WED OCT 6 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1900 CDT ON OCTOBER 06.  
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT 325-944-3030 IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOME SOUTHEAST LATE EVENING, THEN SOUTH  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING  
WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. MILD OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE WITH  
TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES AT 7 PM FALLING TO 70 DEGREES...  
9 TO 10 PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 57 WITH A MAXIMUM RH AT SUNRISE  
AROUND 80 PERCENT.  
 
   
REST OF TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.  
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST  
AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE NIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM  
SKY (%).............13 8 5 7 6 7  
WEATHER COV.........  
WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV............  
LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP................79 71 67 63 61 59  
RH..................34 44 53 59 66 74  
20 FT WIND DIR......E E SE SE SE S  
20 FT WIND SPD......5 5 5 5 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.....6 7 7 7 7 7  
MIX HGT (FT)........100 100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100  
TRANSPORT WIND.....E 5 E 6 E 6 SE 5 SE 6 S 6  
HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 5 5  
SDSPL KT-FT/1000....1 0 0 0 0 0  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.  
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-4000 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO  
5700-7100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
INCREASING TO 7800 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON  
DECREASING TO 5200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (200-44000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
GOOD TO EXCELLENT (57600-93700 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).............5 3 3 3 4 4  
WEATHER COV.........  
WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV............  
LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP................58 58 72 83 90 92  
RH..................74 80 59 43 32 27  
20 FT WIND DIR......S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD......5 5 9 10 10 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.....7 7 13 14 14 13  
MIX HGT (FT)........BLW100 300 700 4000 6400 7800  
TRANSPORT WIND.....S 6 S 8 SW 13 S 13 S 14 S 14  
HAINES INDEX........5 5 6 6 6 5  
SDSPL KT-FT/1000....0 2 8 44 77 94  
 

 
FORECASTER...DECKER  
REQUESTED BY...COLTEN TIBBITTS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2119185.0/SJT  
.DELDT 10/06/21  
.EMAIL TIBBITTS7820@YAHOO.COM  
 
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