002  
FNUS74 KSJT 211536  
FWSSJT  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR ABILENE STATE PARK - UNIT 2 & 7...TPWD  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX  
936 AM CST THU FEB 21 2019  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON FEBRUARY 21.  
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT 325-944-3030 IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON HOURS NEAR THE BURN SITE. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST AT  
10 TO 15 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND  
RH VALUES AROUND 60 PERCENT NOW, WILL DROP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT  
DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO  
THE UPPER 50S TODAY, FALLING TO THE LOWER 40S TONIGHT, AND WARMING  
INTO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT,  
AND TURN TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ALTHOUGH,  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW, MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE,  
KEEPING RH'S FROM DROPPING BELOW 55 PERCENT.  
 
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL SATURDAY WITH  
WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH, GUSTING OVER 40 MPH, RH  
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AND TEMPERATURES  
WARMING INTO THE 60S.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY  
SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.  
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 22 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 17 TO 22 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (28900-56400 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CST) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).............97 79 54 64  
WEATHER COV.........  
WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV............  
LAL.................1 1 1 1  
TEMP................45 51 56 57  
RH..................60 50 43 45  
20 FT WIND DIR......SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD......12 13 15 14  
20 FT WIND GUST.....18 20 22 20  
MIX HGT (FT)........1600 2200 2800 2600  
TRANSPORT WIND......S 21 S 22 S 22 S 20  
HAINES INDEX........4 3 3 3  
SDSPL KT-FT/1000....29 42 54 44  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT).  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (3600-21600 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).............46 35 30 37 99 100  
WEATHER COV.........  
WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV............  
LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP................54 47 43 42 44 46  
RH..................54 76 89 96 96 96  
20 FT WIND DIR......SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD......12 10 9 9 10 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.....18 17 12 12 14 12  
MIX HGT (FT)........1500 800 400 400 400 400  
TRANSPORT WIND......S 16 SE 17 SE 17 SE 14 SE 15 SE 14  
HAINES INDEX........4 4 5 6 6 4  
SDSPL KT-FT/1000....22 12 7 5 5 5  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY  
SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 17  
TO 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (2800-18300 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).............99 98 82 65  
WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV............ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD  
LAL.................2 2 2 2  
TEMP................46 46 52 60  
RH..................100 96 86 64  
20 FT WIND DIR......E SE S S  
20 FT WIND SPD......6 6 7 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.....8 8 10 11  
MIX HGT (FT)........400 600 900 1100  
TRANSPORT WIND......SE 9 S 8 S 16 SW 18  
HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3  
SDSPL KT-FT/1000....3 4 12 18  
 

 
FORECASTER...NAGLE  
REQUESTED BY...KEVIN FERGUSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1901778.0/SJT  
.DELDT 02/21/19  
 
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