824
FXUS64 KAMA 240527
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1227 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG WEST WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
MOST DAYS OVER THE COMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
A COOL START TO THE DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE NORTHWEST TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. WINDS, INITIALLY OUT OF THE NORTH, WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
BY THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD ONLY INCREASE UP TO 10-15 MPH. SOME
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ARISE DUE TO THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY
COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH MORE THAN THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT,
MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLES MAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY PATCHY FOG TO START THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY SIMILAR SET-UP TO FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL BE A
TAD STRONGER, BUT ONLY ARE FORECAST TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 10-20
MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
PANHANDLES, WHICH MAY SEE VERY, VERY LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY LEADING TO SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION,
WHICH WILL AID IN LIMITING THE STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL. THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GENERATE A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL IN THIS
SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS VERY LOW AND ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL
MORE LIKELY THAN NOT FORM FURTHER EAST IN KS AND OK. A WEAK,
BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT
ONLY RESULTING IN A LIGHT WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO START THE DAY ON SUNDAY SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON AS A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. A LEESIDE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
SUNDAY WHICH WILL AID IN BRINGING IN VERY DRY AIR ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES DUE TO WINDS BEING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST. THE WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING SIGNS THAT WIND
GUSTS COULD EXCEED 50 MPH ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ZONES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT HIGH WIND
WARNING CONDITIONS BEING MET AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT
SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME. A WIND ADVISORY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY
BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY LEADING TO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A H500 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
THE MIDDLE TO LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF
CONSISTENCY TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS NO SURPRISE SINCE
IT IS STILL NEARLY A WEEK OUT. SIGNALS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO THE REGION, BUT WITH HOW
THIS YEAR HAS GONE SO FAR, IT WILL BE A WAIT AND SEE SITUATION AS
THERE ARE STILL SOLUTIONS THAT PROVIDE VERY LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TAF CYCLE. NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT BUT WILL DECREASE DOWN TO AROUND 10 KTS OR
LESS. WINDS WILL TURN CLOCKWISE AND WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARDS THE END. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN TOWARDS KGUY AND
KAMA NEAR THE END OR JUST AFTER THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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