272  
FXUS64 KAMA 180844  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
344 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025  
   
..NEW UPDATE  
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025  
 
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST  
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 THIS MORNING. OBSERVED RAIN RATES WITH THE  
ONGOING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR, SO  
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING IF  
THESE RATES CONTINUE. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP  
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ARE MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS AND  
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. FORECAST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN UPDATED  
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST HI-RES  
MODELS.  
 
MUSCHA  
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025  
 
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED  
THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
- STORMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
BEFORE A POSSIBLE DRYING PERIOD.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025  
 
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AS WE HAVE ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG  
OF MLCAPE LEFT OVER. ENVIRONMENT IS MAINLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH  
LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. FURTHER SOUTH  
THERE IS SOME OUTFLOW THAT COULD TRIGGER SOME NEW STORMS THROUGH THE  
NIGHT. TO THE NORTH, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSH WILL BRING MORE ROUNDS  
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT TO THE OK PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS  
MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. AS THE ATMOSPHERE  
STABILIZES MORE FURTHER SOUTH, WE'LL STILL HAVE THE OVERALL BOUNDARY  
HOLDING IN PLACE ALONG THE I-40/HWY60 CORRIDOR. THE CHALLENGE WILL  
BE IF WE GET ENOUGH HEATING TOMORROW TO TRIGGER MORE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, OR IF WE'RE TOO WORKED  
OVER AND THOSE MORNING SHOWERS LINGER TOO LONG FOR US TO REHEAT BACK  
UP AND DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO GET STORMS. DETERMINISTIC AND CAMS ARE  
AT ODDS, WITH THE CAMS BEING MORE BEARISH ON THE STORMS DEVELOPING.  
CURRENT POPS TO REFLECT THE MORE BEARISH SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY.  
EITHER WAY, WITH THE FRONT THROUGH AND ALL THE MOISTURE FROM  
YESTERDAY AND EARLY TODAY WE'RE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE  
MOST PART, WITH LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.  
 
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH AXIS WILL START TO MOVE EAST INTO  
OKLAHOMA AND WE'LL BEGIN TO GET A RIDGE BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLES,  
WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW TO START. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL  
REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 80S, AND WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE THAT  
WE'VE RECEIVED AS WELL AS SOME INCREASED MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM NM,  
WE COULD GET SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED, BUT  
WILL NOT RULE OUT THIS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.  
 
WEBER  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025  
 
OVERALL FOR THE EXTENDED WE WILL BE IN A TRANSITION PERIOD AS THE  
RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS STILL  
WILL NOT BE WITHOUT CHALLENGES AS SUBTLE WAVES IN THE WEST TO  
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND COULD  
TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS WE MOVE INTO MID NEXT  
WEEK, IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE'LL BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM  
THAT MAY TRACK JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA, THEN DIVE DOWN SOUTH OVER THE  
CENTRAL OK AREA, AND PROVIDE MORE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS  
PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS MUCH LOWER PROBABILITY OF POPS IN THE  
EXTENDED. STILL, WOULD NOT THAT AT LEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAVE  
SOME LEVEL OF STORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.  
 
WEBER  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2025  
 
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO START AS STORMS ARE APPROACHING THE TAF  
SITES. AFTER 12Z THE CHANCES OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH, AND WE'LL  
STILL HAVE LOW CIGS DUE TO TO CLOUD COVER, BUT WE SHOULD START TO  
IMPROVE THE CIGS AROUND THE 12-18Z TIME PERIOD AS WE START TO GO  
MORE SCATTERED IN CLOUD COVER. WITH THE FRONT THROUGH FOR THE MOST  
PART, WE'RE LOOKING AT VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10KTS.  
 
WEBER  
 
 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...89  
LONG TERM....89  
AVIATION...89  
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