333
FXUS64 KAMA 231134
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
-A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
-THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK.
-REPEAT ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN
FLOODING CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
LATEST 07Z OBSERVATIONS SHOWS LINGERING SHOWERS FROM CONVECTION
LAST EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. ABUNDANT
SURFACE MOISTURE IS ALSO IN PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. THIS LL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL SET THE STAGES FOR
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITHIN THE MONSOON PATTERN SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOWS THE MAIN
H500 DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, ALONG
WITH A BROAD H500 HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. THE PANHANDLES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PLACED IN THE MOST PRONOUNCED H850-500 MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME
IN-BETWEEN THE TWO SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, ALONG
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE A FOCAL POINT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS, BEFORE LIMITED 0-6 KM SHEAR
WILL RESULT IN MORE LINEAR CONVECTION DOMINATED BY FORWARD
PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD POOLS. SECONDARY SOURCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPMENT FROM MONSOON PATTERN ACROSS NM
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY COULD BE SEVERE AND THOSE STORMS WILL HAVE A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS WITH SECONDARY THREAT BEING HAIL UP TO 1"
IN DIAMETER. ALONG WITH WIND AND HAIL, FLOODING MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE TO WATCH CLOSELY. MRMS ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS
HAS SOME AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE WITH 1-3"
OF RAIN. MORE RAIN IN THESE AREAS IN PARTICULAR WILL ENHANCE
FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE WESTERN PANHANDLES OVERALL WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES (UP TO 30% CHANCE) OF FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION
MAY LINGER INTO PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, FAVORING THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WHERE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FEATURE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN
THE NW PANHANDLES TO LOWER AND MID 90S FOR THE EASTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND,
THE H500 TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND H500 HIGH IN THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL BOTH GRADUALLY COMPRESS INTO A ZONAL FLOW. LATEST
23/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SUBTLE
PERTURBATIONS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, COUPLED WITH
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS STILL ABUNDANT ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, THIS SHOULD STILL GIVE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLES THE BEST CHANCE OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. PROB30 FOR ALL TAF SITES ROUGHLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z
TUESDAY FOR TSRA CONDITIONS ARE ADDED AND WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM,
ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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