161  
FXUS64 KAMA 131130  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
630 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024  
 
IT'S UNDERSTANDABLE IF YOU'RE EXPERIENCING DEJA VU WITH THE  
FORECAST, BECAUSE IT'S JUST GOING TO BE ANOTHER HOT AND BREEZY  
JULY DAY. MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY SCARCE COMPARED TO THIS TIME  
LAST WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS DOMINANT. THE ONLY REAL PRAYER  
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES  
THIS EVENING, WHERE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE TO  
SURVIVE THE TRIP SOUTH FROM COLORADO/KANSAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY  
LIKELY WON'T BE QUITE AS BAD AS YESTERDAY, BUT ARE STILL SLATED TO  
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO 104 RANGE. TOMORROW WILL BE EVEN DRIER AND  
A COUPLE DEGREES HOTTER, WITH WINDS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING OUT OF  
THE SOUTH. NOT TERRIBLY WORRIED ABOUT ANY HEAT ADVISORIES BEING  
NEEDED ON SUNDAY, BUT WON'T RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE  
CANYON APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. EVEN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN  
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE HAS ABOUT A 30-60% PROBABILITY TO REACH 105  
BASED ON HI- RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY, IT'LL BE A HOT  
ONE!  
 
HARREL  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024  
 
SAME OLD SAME OLD TO START THE WORK WEEK ON MONDAY: IT'LL BE HOT.  
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SEATED TO OUR WEST WON'T LOSE  
ITS GRIP ON THE REGION QUITE YET, ALLOWING HEAT TO STICK AROUND. ON  
TOP OF THAT, THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TARGETED  
FOR A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF WEAK AFTERNOON-EVENING  
SHOWERS/STORMS. HEAT WILL REMAIN AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE FORECAST  
THOUGH, WITH HIGHS NUDGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. 100 DEGREE  
TEMPERATURES OR HIGHER COULD EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES,  
WITH A 20-40% PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED LOCATIONS (INCLUDING PALO  
DURO CANYON) TOPPING OUT AROUND 105 DEGREES.  
 
OUR TUNE CHANGES COME MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN THE UPPER HIGH  
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS. BY TUE-WED,  
MOISTURE CONTENT GOES UP, AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE  
AREA. EXTRA SOURCES OF LIFT SHOULD HELP INITIATE DAILY SHOWER AND  
STORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN  
SURVIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FLIP-  
FLOPPING SOMEWHAT ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES, BUT ENSEMBLE  
SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE IN FAVOR OF THE PATTERN CHANGE. EITHER WAY,  
THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A RESPECTABLE COOL DOWN FOR THIS TIME OF  
YEAR, DROPPING HIGHS DOWN TO THE 80S AND LOW 90S.  
 
HARREL  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ON DECK AT ALL SITES FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.  
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZIEST AT KGUY AND KDHT, WHERE  
GUSTS COULD TOP OUT AROUND 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SLIGHTLY  
CALMER WINDS TO THE SOUTH NEAR KAMA.  
 
HARREL  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMARILLO TX 98 69 99 70 / 0 0 0 0  
BEAVER OK 101 71 103 70 / 0 0 0 0  
BOISE CITY OK 98 67 101 66 / 0 10 0 0  
BORGER TX 104 71 105 72 / 0 0 0 0  
BOYS RANCH TX 101 69 102 69 / 0 0 0 0  
CANYON TX 97 67 98 67 / 0 0 0 0  
CLARENDON TX 97 69 98 71 / 0 0 0 0  
DALHART TX 99 66 100 64 / 0 0 0 0  
GUYMON OK 101 68 103 67 / 0 0 0 0  
HEREFORD TX 98 67 100 67 / 0 0 0 0  
LIPSCOMB TX 100 71 102 71 / 0 0 0 0  
PAMPA TX 97 69 98 70 / 0 0 0 0  
SHAMROCK TX 98 69 99 71 / 0 0 0 0  
WELLINGTON TX 99 71 101 72 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...38  
LONG TERM....38  
AVIATION...38  
 
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