828
FXUS64 KAMA 141108
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
508 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING DRASTICALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW (20-60%) CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
SATELLITE AND MESOANALYSIS TONIGHT SHOW ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SITUATED
ATOP THE PANHANDLES. ANOTHER QUIET AND SUNNY DAY WILL ENSUE, WITH
HIGHS STAYING IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S BEHIND A WEAK FRONT SET TO
DROP OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, TURNING
AROUND THE DIAL THROUGH TONIGHT. WE'LL SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER WARMING
TOMORROW WHEN A BROAD TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE PLAINS, MAKING
ROOM FOR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO AMPLIFY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 50 AS ABNORMALLY LIGHT WINDS PERSIST AND SUNNY SKIES STICK
AROUND. THE TREND OF OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL
CARRY ON AS WELL, WHICH UNFORTUNATELY MEANS SLICK SPOTS ON THE
ROADS DUE TO REFREEZING OF MELTED SNOW MAY NOT BE DONE YET.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AHEAD OF A
CLOSED LOW MOVING ON SHORE OVER SOCAL. THIS IS WHEN OUR MORE
APPRECIABLE WARMING TREND KICKS INTO GEAR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE LEE SFC CYCLOGENESIS, GENERATING BREEZY
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH, WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE (40-70%) FOR GUSTS OVER
30 MPH. MOST LIKELY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MID 50S TO MID
60S BOTH DAYS TO END THE WORK WEEK, WHICH IS BACK TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY.
THE BIGGER STORY ON FRIDAY HOWEVER, IS THE INITIAL ARRIVAL OF A
WELL ANTICIPATED STRONG COLD FRONT. A SHIFT TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS
WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, GRADUALLY DRAWING A POLAR AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO PLUMMET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND BASED ON ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES, THERE IS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD (>70% CHANCE) TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF
THE PANHANDLES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN FOR
THOSE WHO MANAGE TO BREAK 32 DEGREES DURING THE DAYTIME, FRIGID
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FAVORED, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE EVEN HINTED THAT SUB-ZERO
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT UNCOMMON FOR
JANUARY, BUT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON, SO
PLEASE PREPARE ACCORDINGLY.
AS IS COMMON IN THIS TYPE OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIRMASS, ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE POOLED BEHIND THE FRONT COUPLED WITH LIFT FROM PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-60%) TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW TO FALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES, BUT GREATLY VARY IN
TERMS OF AMOUNTS. FOR NOW, THE DATA IS IN FAVOR OF GENERALLY
LIGHTER SNOWFALL AND LOWER IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO LAST
WEEK'S EVENT. PER USUAL, THIS COULD CHANGE AND WE WILL FOCUS
EFFORTS ON FINE TUNING THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR SKY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES WITH WINDS TURNING
AROUND THE DIAL AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BECOMING MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HARREL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 45 22 48 24 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 45 19 49 22 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 42 17 48 20 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 47 21 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 47 19 49 22 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 47 20 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 51 23 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 44 16 48 18 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 45 17 49 20 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 47 20 49 22 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 45 21 48 24 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 45 21 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 52 22 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 52 23 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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