895  
FXUS64 KAMA 281959  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
259 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2024  
 
FRIDAY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF  
THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH  
THE TROPOSPHERE BOTH OVER THE PANHANDLES AND THE ROCKIES TO THE  
NORTHWEST PROMOTES BOTH DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS.  
THAT SAID, TOP END WIND POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE MUTED AS A 45-50 KNOT  
850MB JET WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SOON AFTER SUNRISE, REPLACED  
BY 700/850MB WINDS OF ONLY AROUND 30 KNOTS. THUS, FRIDAY'S CRITICAL  
WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY CONCERNS SURROUNDING LOW RH, WITH GRASSES  
HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE STARTS BUT HIGHLY AGGRESSIVE FIRE SPREAD  
NOT NECESSARILY IN THE CARDS.  
 
FERGUSON  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2024  
 
SATURDAY, WHILE SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES MAY RETURN, PARTICULARLY THE  
SW TX PANHANDLE, CONCERNS ABOUT WINDS BEING STRONG ENOUGH FOR  
DANGEROUS FIRE SPREAD CONTINUE WITH 700/850MB WINDS REMAINING MODEST  
AT AROUND 30 KNOTS. THUS, WHILE ELEVATED CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY,  
HAVE ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY.  
OTHERWISE, EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR A SECOND  
CONSECUTIVE DAY.  
 
SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS TO  
EXPERIENCE BONA FIDE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AS THE DRY CONDITIONS  
CONTINUE AND MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER  
TROUGH. STRONG MIXING OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO RECUR WITH  
THOSE STRONGER 700/850MB WINDS OF 40-50 KNOTS TO BE BROUGHT TO THE  
SURFACE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN LLTR MAY DEVELOP, SO WE WILL  
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SUNDAY OVER THE COMING DAYS. FINALLY, IT  
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE - A STRONGER  
MAJORITY THAN LAST WEEK - KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH WELL TO OUR  
EAST, SUGGESTING VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE  
NOTABLE STRUGGLE MID-RANGE GUIDANCE HAD WITH LAST SUNDAY, WITH MORE  
MARGIN FOR ERROR, AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT RETURN  
TO OUR CWA.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOCUS ON AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND  
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. GUIDANCE SHOWS A VARIETY OF EXACT TIMINGS WITH  
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND MAIN BODY OF THE UPPER TROUGH SO HAVE  
STUCK WITH NBM OUTPUT FOR NOW. MONDAY MAY FEATURE THUNDERSTORMS  
BEFORE THE FRONT CRASHES SOUTHWARD, PARTICULARLY IF THE UPPER TROUGH  
ARRIVES EARLY AND INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AS THE MID-LEVELS COOL.  
CONVERSELY, MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY COULD PRESUMABLY SEE LIGHT  
SNOW IF THE FRONT ARRIVES BEFORE THE MAIN BODY OF THE UPPER TROUGH  
ARRIVES. IN ANY CASE, THE CHANCE FOR NOTABLE, DROUGHT DAMPENING  
PRECIP APPEARS LOW.  
 
FERGUSON  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2024  
 
PRIMARY POTENTIAL HAZARD TO FLIERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE SURFACE TO 1000 FOOT  
LAYER OVER THE EASTERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND  
14Z, INCLUDING AT AMA/GUY. OVER TIME, LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO  
SUBSIDE AND SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FOLLOWING SUNRISE,  
REDUCING LLWS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOME SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO  
AROUND 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
FERGUSON  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMARILLO TX 47 80 45 82 / 0 0 0 0  
BEAVER OK 46 81 38 78 / 0 0 0 0  
BOISE CITY OK 41 76 36 77 / 0 0 0 0  
BORGER TX 49 84 43 86 / 0 0 0 0  
BOYS RANCH TX 44 81 41 84 / 0 0 0 0  
CANYON TX 46 80 43 82 / 0 0 0 0  
CLARENDON TX 48 82 47 83 / 0 0 0 0  
DALHART TX 40 79 36 79 / 0 0 0 0  
GUYMON OK 43 80 35 79 / 0 0 0 0  
HEREFORD TX 43 81 43 83 / 0 0 0 0  
LIPSCOMB TX 49 81 40 80 / 0 0 0 0  
PAMPA TX 49 82 44 83 / 0 0 0 0  
SHAMROCK TX 47 80 43 81 / 0 0 0 0  
WELLINGTON TX 46 79 44 83 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ001-002-  
006>008-011>013-016>018-317.  
 
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ001.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...77  
LONG TERM....77  
AVIATION...77  
 
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