384
FXUS64 KAMA 071851
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
151 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
CURRENT 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SW CONUS WITH WEAK NE FLOW OVER THE FA. A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH PATTERN THAT IS
SWINGING ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
WESTERLIES ALOFT AND BE A DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR STORMS OFF THE
NM/CO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OFF THE BASE OF TROUGH PATTERN PIVOTING WITH
AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW IN CANADA. AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS PRESENT BOTH TODAY IN THE W FA AND TOMORROW IN THE E FA IN
CONCORDANCE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE INCREASED TODAY IN THE W THIRD OF THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES. DEWPOINTS ARE SITTING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH AN AXIS OF 700MB THETA-E SETTING UP ALONG THE NM/TX
BORDER. MUCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AROUND THE TIME STORMS ENTER
THE FA, WHICH MAY BE THE DRIVING FACTOR TO HELP KEEP STORMS
CONTINUING A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL ENTER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES BETWEEN 5-7 PM. ALL
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CREATE A
POTENTIALLY STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH GUSTY WINDS. DCAPE VALUES
ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG, SO AS STORMS COLLAPSE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
A SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR TWO TO COME OUT OF THE STORMS. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH TO POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND 10-11 PM.
TOMORROW THE CHANCE FOR STORMS RETURN IN THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES
FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER AXIS OF 700MB THETA-E
IS PRESENT ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
POTENTIALLY WEAK DRYLINE SETUP. THE NAM3K IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH INITIATING STORMS IN THE EAST, BUT THE NBM ALSO HAS BEEN
TRENDING POPS HIGHER INTO THE 20S AND 30S. THE INSTABILITY EXISTS
WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS.
IF THE NAM PLAYS OUT AND KEEPS THE BETTER MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES FOR STORMS TO INITIATE, THEN THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE CONTINUING THE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY DUE EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. TOMORROW WINDS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FROM THE
SOUTH WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 107 RANGE.
HOWEVER, IF WINDS TOMORROW TEND TO TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY THEN THAT MAY BE WHAT KEEPS
TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
RUTT
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES
THURSDAY OF 590 TO 593 DAM WILL SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
FRIDAY AND DEEPEN TO AROUND 597 TO 600 DAM FRIDAY. FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER HIGH EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH 598
TO 600 DAM BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AROUND 594 TO 598 DAM. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER SATURDAY, BUT WILL BE
IN THE 101 TO 110 THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AROUND
110 TO 112 IN THE PALO DURO CANYON. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
IN THE UPPER 90S AND AROUND 100 TO AROUND 110 TO 111 IN PALO DURO
CANYON. WILL LIKELY BE NEEDING A HEAT ADVISORY OR EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING BETWEEN THURSDAY AND MONDAY.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT, RFTIS OF AROUND 1 TO 2
WILL BE POSSIBLE. COULD POSSIBLY HAVE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER 20 FOOT SOUTH
AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT
AND WILL BE MAINLY RELATIVE HUMIDITY-DRIVEN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.
SCHNEIDER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 68 101 73 104 72 / 10 5 5 5 10
BEAVER OK 69 102 72 104 69 / 5 10 20 5 10
BOISE CITY OK 65 102 66 101 65 / 30 0 5 0 5
BORGER TX 72 106 77 109 74 / 10 5 10 5 5
BOYS RANCH TX 69 106 73 107 72 / 20 0 5 5 5
CANYON TX 67 101 72 104 72 / 5 5 10 5 5
CLARENDON TX 69 99 75 103 74 / 5 5 5 5 5
DALHART TX 65 103 67 102 66 / 30 0 5 0 5
GUYMON OK 68 104 69 104 68 / 10 0 5 0 5
HEREFORD TX 68 102 72 105 72 / 10 5 5 5 10
LIPSCOMB TX 70 101 75 105 72 / 5 10 20 5 10
PAMPA TX 69 101 74 104 72 / 5 10 10 5 10
SHAMROCK TX 69 98 74 103 73 / 0 0 5 5 5
WELLINGTON TX 70 101 75 105 74 / 0 0 5 0 5
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
23/11
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