572
FXUS64 KAMA 031106
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
506 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY COULD CAUSE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
- A PATTERN CHANGE HAS LOW CHANCES TO LEAD TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND MESOANALYSIS AS OF 05Z SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR EVENING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS, EXITING
TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, REPLACING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRIER AIR
AND PROVIDING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE TRANSLATING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CAUSING A
DEEPENING LEE SFC LOW TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST. BREEZIER WINDS
WILL ENSUE, OUT OF THE WEST IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THROUGH THE DAY. WARMING 850MB TEMPS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S, LIKELY ONLY BEING INHIBITED FROM CLIMBING HIGHER BY
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ATOP THE PANHANDLES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD
AND BREEZY LEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THE FIRST FULL WORK WEEK OF 2026 COMMENCES WITH THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE, FEATURING WIDESPREAD
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WARMTH, LIKELY 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH LOOKING PLAUSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS UNFORTUNATELY WOULD
SUPPORT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARMING
TREND WILL BE DE-AMPLIFIED AND DISPLACED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A STRONGER LOW TAKES SHAPE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST, HELPING US
RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER, ALBEIT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP US IN THE 60S TUE-WED, UNTIL MODELS SHOW
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS THU-FRI. THIS SYSTEM
HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF PULLING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WITH IT TO
SUPPORT LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PANHANDLES (10-20%
POPS) DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A
SPLIT DECISION ON WHETHER OR NOT MUCH OF THE REGION GETS DRY
SLOTTED WITH LITTLE TO NO MENTIONABLE MOISTURE. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW/TROUGH, BUT FOR NOW A
DRIER TREND IS BECOMING FAVORED. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRI-SAT,
BRINGING ANOTHER SLIM SHOT TO SQUEEZE OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW IF TEMPERATURES COOL
SUFFICIENTLY. REGARDLESS, THIS SHOULD SPELL A RETURN TO NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 444 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
NORTH WINDS SHOULD SOON BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, STAYING AROUND
10 KTS OR LESS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR WITH MAYBE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...36
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