366
FXUS64 KAMA 200450
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1150 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
- MID TO UPPER-90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH FRIDAY BEING THE
HOTTEST DAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100
DEGREES.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, EVENING, AND
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SIT OVER THE PANHANDLES. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOK TO KEEP THE PANHANDLES RELATIVELY DRY
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FORCES THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLIDE
EAST. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THESE DRY CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, IS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. HERE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT POSSIBILITY IS 10% OR LESS.
OTHERWISE, CONCERNS START TO FOCUS MORE ON THE HEAT FOR TODAY AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECTATIONS FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY ARE TO SEE TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. MEANWHILE, FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE EVEN WARMER WITH CHANCES TO SEE
TRIPLE DIGIT WEATHER IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS. IN SOME OF OUR HOTTER
LOCATIONS, LIKE THE PALO DURO CANYON, THE POTENTIAL IS EVEN
PRESENT FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE HOT ENOUGH TO NEED HEAT RELATED
PRODUCTS. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY BREEZY CONDITIONS
FOR THE DAY HAVE WANED CONFIDENCE ENOUGH FOR THE PRODUCT TO BE
HELD OFF FOR NOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
THE SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE PRESENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY AS THE PANHANDLES IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUBJECT TO ANOTHER ATTEMPT ARE TRIPLE DIGITS HIGHS FOR THE
DAY. HOWEVER, THIS ATTEMPT SEEMS TO COME WITH A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY THAN ITS COUNTERPART ON FRIDAY. AS IT STANDS, SOME OF
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE INCOMING TROUGH THAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE SOURCE OF ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK MAY ARRIVE
SOONER, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
STORMS SATURDAY EVENING. STILL, THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO FOLLOW SUNDAY WITH MOST MODEL
SEEING THE EXPECTED TROUGH FINALLY SET UP IN THE WESTERN UNTIED
STATES. MOVING INTO MONDAY AND THE START OF THE WEEK HAS THE
MODELS SEEING THE EXPECTED TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST STALL. THIS STALLED PATTERN WILL BE
INTERESTING AS IT SETS UP A UNIQUE MONSOON-LIKE SCENARIO WHERE
MOISTURE FORM BOTH GULF SOURCES WILL BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AND
ARIZONA. WHILE TRENDS HAVE PUT MORE STOCK INTO THESE TWO STATES
SEEING A MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION, THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES MAY STILL GET ITS SHARE WITH MANY OF THE MODELS
SUGGESTING PWAT VALUES NEARING OR OVER THE 1.5 INCH MARK. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THIS SHARE WILL BE PRESENT AND FOR
HOW LONG. AT THIS TIME BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS US BEING MORE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS HIGH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOKING TO BE PRESENT
CLEAR INTO NEXT THURSDAY. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS AS A SLIGHT SHIFT FROM EITHER THE LOW OR HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD SEE OUR AMOUNTS INCREASE OR DECREASE. FOR NOW, NOW
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL RANGE WITH MOST
DAYS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE TO PICK UP, MAINLY AFTER 18Z TO AROUND
20 KTS GUST 30 KTS. BEFORE THIS KGUY MAY EXPERIENCE SOME LLWS
BEFORE A LOW LEVEL JET ERODES AND SURFACE WINDS PICK UP. EXPECTING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...36
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