393
FXUS64 KAMA 212323
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
523 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 KTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE FROM SCT TO MORE BKN/OVC AT MID/HIGH CIGS
CLOSER TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MECCARIELLO
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 343 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
FOR TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY AFTERNOON BENIGN WEATHER IS IN THE
OFFING AS A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH ITS AXIS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OK
AND TX PANHANDLES FROM THE SUBTROPICS IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST. THIS PARTICULAR STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS SRN CA TOWARDS SOUTHERN NV AND WESTERN AZ BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY
AND WERE ACCEPTED. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ARGUE IN FAVOR OF NO POPS FOR
THE AREA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANDRADE
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A 500MB CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALI WILL SWING ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE AN 80 TO 90 KNOT JET STREAK WILL SET UP
SOUTH OF THE LOW WITH THE PANHANDLES UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR RISING AIR. THIS LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY, BUT QUICKLY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE
FORECAST AREA IS LEFT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SURFACE, A CLOSED LOW FORMS OFF THE ROCKIES AND BECOMES CO-
LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PATTERN SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL
FORM ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE LOW WITH A PRESSURE CHANGE OF
7 MB PER 3 HRS AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONGER
WINDS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS
THE POTENTIAL TO MIX THE 500-600MB 50 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE. A
WIND HEADLINE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION YET AS WIND SPEEDS COULD
REACH AN EXCESS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS DURING PEAK MIXING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO STRONG WINDS RESIDING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL
SWING ACROSS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE,
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS FED NORTHEAST OVER MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
BEFORE GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH AND BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, THE SURFACE TO 500MB REMAINS
SATURATED WITH ABOVE 400MB REMAINING DRY. AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY, LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY PLUS ADDITIONAL LIFT
FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 500MB JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. QUICKLY DRY AIR IN THE
MIDLEVELS MOVES IN AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES FURTHER SOUTH, THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE SUPPORT.
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY, ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL REMAIN LIQUID. SOUNDINGS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH HIGH LCLS AND LOW
CLOUD TOPS, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO FORM. THERE IS A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE
A TONGUE OF 700MB THETA-E STRETCHES ACROSS THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S; HOWEVER, DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE
SPEED SHEAR OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE DRY AIR
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING TO NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ANOTHER DEEP ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIMITED
WITH THIS NEXT WAVE AS DRY AIR RESIDES IN THE MIDLEVELS AND NEAR THE
SURFACE WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE IN THE 700MB LEVEL. WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SECOND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SECOND WAVE WITH DAYTIME MIXING OF THE 30 TO 40 KNOT JET AT 850MB TO
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY.
AFTER TUESDAY THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES, BUT COLDER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO THE 50S AS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
RUTT
FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH A COLD FRONT INTENDED
TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES
IN THE 30S AND 40S DUE TO THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE
NORTH AND EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING THAT COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS.
RUTT
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
29/89
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