317
FXUS64 KAMA 221055
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
555 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
- THERE IS A DAILY 10-30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM.
- IMPACTFUL HEAT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
CHANCES AT TRIPLE DIGITS BY SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATE ITSELF TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER FLORIDA WITH THE WESTERN
EXTEND OF THE HIGH JUST REACHING INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS
POSITIONING OF THE HIGH KEEPS US IN A UNIQUE SITUATION WHERE WE
REMAIN STAGNATE ENOUGH AT THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS TO ALLOW US TO
WARM, BUT KEEP ENOUGH OF A FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO KEEP
MOISTURE PRESENT FROM THE GULF. THIS ONGOING PUSH OF MOISTURE HAS
ALLOWED FOR THE PANHANDLES KEEPING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON WITH CURRENT CAMS EXPECTING THE UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH TO RETREAT FURTHER EAST, WHICH WILL ALL FOR SOME WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL AID IN GIVING A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT THAT COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER,
MOST OF THE CAMS ARE NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH FROM THESE STORMS WITH
MOST OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLES DEALING WITH CAPE VALUES BELOW
1000 J/KG AND LITTLE TO NOW WIND SHEAR FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, AS YOU PROGRESS FURTHER EAST, THESE INGREDIENT BECOME
MUCH BETTER WITH CAPE VALUES JUMPING ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND EVEN A
LITTLE BIT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. MUCH LIKE MONDAY, THIS AREA COULD
ONCE AGAIN SEE STORMS FORM OFF OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL
PRESENT FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BE VERY QUICK POP UP STORMS, WITH CONCERNS BEING MAINLY
GUSTY DOWN BURST WINDS THAT COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY, HAS MOST OF THE CAMS SEE A MUCH STRONGER
SHORT-WAVE PROGRESS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WAVE WILL SERVE AS
THE CATALYSIS TO STARTING YET ANOTHER ROUND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL, CAMS ARE NOT AS
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT IT GIVEN THEY WANT MOST STUFF TO FORM AND STAY
ON THE BOUNDARY, BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
THAT SUGGEST THE PRESENCES OF DECENT WIND SHEAR AND ENOUGH CAPE
THAT WE COULD HAVE SOME DISCRETE SEVERE CELLS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, ONCE THE BOUNDARY CATCHES UP, CONCERNS WILL
LIKELY SHIFT TO STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
THE EXIT OF THE STRONGER SHORT-WAVE ON WEDNESDAY DOES BEGIN TO SEE
A SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVELS AROUND THE PANHANDLES WITH MOST MODELS
SEEING THE PRESENT HIGH RETREAT FURTHER EAST. THIS RETREAT DOES
GIVE US ONE MORE SHOT AT A SHORT-WAVE BASED ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, MOST MODEL ARE ALSO SEEING NEW A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO BUILD DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH HAS SEEN
MUCH OF OUR CHANCES FOCUS FURTHER NORTH THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED.
FROM THERE MODELS LOOK SEE THE HIGH COMPLETELY WIN OUT AND CUT OFF
OUR MOISTURE TRACK FROM THE GULF. WITH THE HIGH NOW HOLDING,
MAJORITY OF MODELS SEE US FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEGIN TO HEAT UP EVEN FURTHER. AT IT STANDS THE PANHANDLES COULD
LOOK TO FLIRT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE UNDER A RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH CAN DEGRADE CONDITIONS TO IFR OR WORSE DURING IT OCCURRENCE.
THERE ARE A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLES. THE ODDS OF THESE IMPACTING ANY
TERMINAL OR TOO LOW TO BE REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CURRENTLY THE ODDS OF THIS OCCURRING ON STATION ARE
HIGHEST AT KAMA WITH IT BEING REFLECTED IN THE TAF. KDHT AND KGUY
HAVE A LESSER CHANCE OF SEEING THIS ACTIVITY ON STATION SO THEY
WERE NOT REFLECTED WITHIN THOSE TAFS FOR NOW. ANY OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION THE AMBIENT
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY LIGHT
HOURS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98
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