042
FXUS64 KAMA 231104
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
AVIATION
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 TO 35 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TO 17Z TODAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 00Z TO 02Z SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
U.S. ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WITH A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHEASTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AROUND 23Z TODAY AND 00Z SUNDAY UNTIL 02Z AND 04Z SUNDAY.
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLES BY 04Z TO
06Z SUNDAY.
LOW LEVEL 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS MORNING 40 TO 50 KNOTS
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AFTER THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS.
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL
850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET OF 40 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT BY 03Z TO 06Z SUNDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL DEEPEN TODAY WITH A EAST TO WEST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM KANSAS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE
SURFACE LOW. SURFACE TROUGH OR PSEUDO-DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY 00Z SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN
MOVING EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH SUNDAY. SURFACE
RIDGE TO BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
ELEVATED TO LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGH END ELEVATED OR LOW END
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES. MAX RFTIS OF 1 TO 3 AND 2 TO 4 ARE
FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THIS AREA. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 12 TO 15
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH 20 FOOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH FROM MID TO LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ERC PERCENTILES WILL BE IN
THE 70TH TO 89TH RANGE. WILL GO WITH FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OR ALL OF THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM 12 PM UNTIL 7 PM TODAY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME AS CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE ONLY MET FOR ABOUT 1 OR 2 HOURS
AND NOT 3 HOURS.
SCHNEIDER
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE EAST WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STARTS OFF WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
WITH TROUGHING ON EITHER SIDE. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS QUICKLY AFTER SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD WAA TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TUESDAY WILL
SEE THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFT EASTWARD WITH WARMING FROM A LEE SIDE
LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION AND TAKES AIM FOR THE PANHANDLES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
LOW TRACKS, PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP. THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO DRY SLOT THE CWA.
HOWEVER, SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS TRACK THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND LINE
UP WITH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND MOST ECMWF MEMBERS WHERE AT
LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE AREA GETS PRECIP. THE MOST FAVORED AREA
IS THE EAST, BUT THERE ARE SOME MEMBERS THAT INDICATE WE COULD SEE
WRAP AROUND PRECIP IN THE NORTH AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE EAST FOR SOME
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SRH FORECASTS LOOK DECENT, BUT
LCLS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN ONE WOULD GENERALLY LIKE FOR TORNADO
POTENTIAL, SO PERHAPS MORE UNLIKELY THAN LIKELY IN THAT ASPECT.
THIS WILL NEED CLOSE MONITORING FOR TRACK TO DETERMINE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE, IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES, FIRE WEATHER WILL
BE A CONCERN WITH ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY LOW END CRITICAL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED, BUT IT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WARMTH AS A COLD FRONT COMES IN AS THE SURFACE LOW
EXITS THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
BEAT
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
RH IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 17 PERCENT IN THE WEST AND UP TO 30
PERCENT IN THE EAST. RFTI VALUES WILL BE 0 IN THE EAST AND
INCREASE TO SOME SPOTTY 3S IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. A
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TURN
WINDS NORTHERLY. ERC VALUES ARE IN THE 50TH TO 75TH GENERALLY WITH
A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN OK PANHANDLE REACHING THE 80TH PERCENTILE.
THE EXTENT OF AREA THAT SEES FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
RELIANT ON WHERE THE LOW TRACKS TUESDAY. IF IT GOES FURTHER NORTH
AND WE DON'T RECEIVE PRECIPITATION, MORE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF IT TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH, MORE OVERHEAD,
AND WE RECEIVE STORMS IN THE EAST, THEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WEST.
BEAT
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
11/16
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