238
FXUS64 KAMA 091909
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
209 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
-VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
SOME SNOWPACK IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE SLOWING
SOME WARMING TODAY. BASED ON THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM
AMARILLO A WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND 5.5 DEGREES C WAS PRESET AROUND
860 MB. THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT HAS QUICKLY RISEN TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN LOWER 50S BEFORE NOON. AREAS WITH MORE SNOWPACK
ARE JUST NOW REACHING THE LOWER 40S, OR ARE STILL STUCK IN THE 30S
AS OF THIS WRITING. WITH YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM VACATING THE
PANHANDLES, THIS AFTERNOON H85 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO REACH
UPWARDS OF 8 TO 10.5 DEGREES C. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER LIGHT
WINDS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE 30S
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SOME AREAS THAT STAY WITH CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT
MAY FALL TO OR BELOW 32 DEGREES AND SEE SOME FREEZING TEMPS
TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING.
TOMORROW, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH H85 TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 14 DEGREES C WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE WELL IN
THE 70S, A HUGE REBOUND FROM HAVING SNOW LAST NIGHT. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SHOULD BRING WITH IT SOME BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. TOMORROW
NIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AND HELP MIX
SOME OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL
IN THE 40S FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE GOING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
36
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
SPRING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A PACIFIC FRONT
POTENTIALLY BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
TUE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL HOLD BACK SOME OF THE 70 DEGREE TEMPS
IN THE NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. MOISTURE IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD
AFTER THE EXIT OF THIS SHORTWAVE WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ONCE
AGAIN. THU THE EASTERN PANHANDLES COULD APPROACH A HIGH OF 80
DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT ON THU AHEAD
OF THE NEXT POTENT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO SOME BREEZY WINDS ON THU IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGH
WINDS POSSIBLE ON FRI. AN H5 JET MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE
OF THIS NEXT TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE UPWARDS OF 110 KTS. THE GFS
HAS THIS JET MAXIMA PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE COMBINED PANHANDLES
FRIDAY WHILE THE EC HAS IT JUST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS
STRONG SYSTEM WILL HAVE A STACKED JET SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS POSSIBLY FEEDING HIGH WIND GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS 70-80 KTS AT H7 DIRECTLY
OVER AMARILLO WITH THE MOST CURRENT RUN. NBM PROBS HAVE A 5 TO 15%
CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 65 MPH FRI AFTERNOON FROM AMARILLO DOWN
TO LUBBOCK. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT GUST POTENTIAL
AND WHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL HAVE THAT HIGHER
POTENTIAL. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE
HIGH WIND EVENT. THE NBM ALREADY HAS MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE
UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL SUSTAINED WINDS FOR FRI. ANOTHER THREAT WILL
ALSO BE FIRE WEATHER. FUELS WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR THE
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL, AS MOISTURE LAST NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING THIS WEEK COULD BRING FORTH SOME GREEN-UP OF THE
VEGETATION LEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE EXPECTED PACIFIC FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S AND LOWER
60S. HOWEVER, DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS WILL MIX IN SOME DRIER TDS
LEADING TO LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS TO 20S.
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS
AREA STAYS UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. BREEZY WINDS ON SAT ARE
PROGGED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE, BUT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THIS TIME.
36
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE 24 HOURS. THE PERIOD WILL HAVE
LIGHT WINDS STARTING OUT OF THE NORTH BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LATER ON STAYING AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. SKIES EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINATELY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
36
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
WILL BE WATCHING FOR A POTENTIAL HIGH WIND EVENT ON FRIDAY. RH
VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S BEHIND A
PACIFIC FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME AREAS RECEIVED A
DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LAST NIGHT BUT THE COMBINED PANHANDLES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. PLEASE
READ THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE WHAT STATE THE FUELS ARE IN COME FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 32 75 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 31 79 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 28 75 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 33 78 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 30 76 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 30 74 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 34 76 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 25 73 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 30 78 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 30 74 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 33 77 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 34 76 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 32 75 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 31 75 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36
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