398
FXUS64 KAMA 270447
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1047 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021
AVIATION...06Z TAF
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. LLWS MAY EXIST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FOR KGUY AND KDHT AROUND 09Z AND 13Z
RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL BE AROUND THE TIME A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS
UP AND JUST BEFORE THE SURFACE WINDS START TO RAMP UP. SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND THE 20 KT RANGE WITH GUST
AROUND 30 KTS BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR,
WITH MAYBE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
HOFFEDITZ
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 518 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH SOME VARIATION IN DIRECTION FROM ONE
LOCATION TO ANOTHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP AROUND 16Z. BY
16Z WINDS WILL BE APPROACHING SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KTS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAYBE PRESENT. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOFFEDITZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021/
SHORT TERM...
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE NOTED BY LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND
BREEZY WIND SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON. TOMORROW'S CONDITIONS ARE
LINING UP BETTER FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND THAT IS THE MAIN
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM REGARDING HAZARDS.
SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AREA OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSOLVING TONIGHT.
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST, EVENTUALLY BECOME VARIABLE AND--TO SOME DEGREE--WEAK
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS CONTINUES TOMORROW AND PUTS THE
PANHANDLES UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL HELP
INITIATE LEE CYCLOGENESIS, AND A SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY. IN FACT, MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR IN THE 70S FOR
A HIGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NOT ONLY IS THE LOW STRONGER TOMORROW;
ALLOWING FOR A BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
STRONGER. OVERALL, WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD STACKED JET OF WINDS
OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD
MIXING POTENTIAL, SO SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 20-30 MPH
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH IN
THE NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE OK PANHANDLE.
RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT (SOME AREAS
SLIGHTLY LOWER) FOR A GOOD PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLES. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC) VALUES ARE MUCH
HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, ERC
VALUES ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR FIRE
STARTS TOMORROW. REGARDLESS, TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE STATE
OF THE FUELS AND WEATHER TOMORROW WE ARE LOOKING AT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GUERRERO
FIRE WEATHER (SATURDAY)...
ERC VALUES WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON SATURDAY, BUT THEY HAVE
TRENDED HIGHER--ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH--THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
DESPITE THE RECENT MOISTURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 9-15 FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE VARIABLES HAS RESULTED IN RFTI
VALUES AROUND 3-5 FOR THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.
AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.
GUERRERO
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL DROP BACK
BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. H500 WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.
LATEST 26/12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS NO REAL ACCORD
BETWEEN MEMBERS REGARDING THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLES ON
MONDAY. A DEEPENING POSITIVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT, OR IN SOME CASES SOME OUTPUT SHOWS A CLOSED H500 LOW
THAT FORMS AND MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL DATA THEN BEGINS TO
DIVERGE. CMC/NAM/NBM PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY. CMC/NAM ARE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE AREA OF PRONOUNCED H700
THETA-E ADVECTION NORTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES OUT AHEAD OF A
NORTHEAST MOVING H500 LOW OVER UNION COUNTY, NM BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH H850-700 IN
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS AT OR BELOW ZERO. ALONG WITH WET-BULB ZERO
TEMPS IN A MOIST COLUMN AS SEEN IN THE LATEST NAM CROSS SECTIONS,
A MONDAY MORNING EVENT OF SNOWFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PROFILES AND PROLONGED COLD AIR EXISTS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE +/- 0C WHERE
IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT, PRECIPITATION COULD START AS
A WINTRY MIX AND SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW MID MONDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM, GFS/ECMWF DISPLAY AN OPEN
WAVE AND/OR CLOSED LOW FURTHER EQUATORWARD DISPLACED ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF THE GEOGRAPHIC POSITIONING OF
THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH A SMALLER DOMAIN OF INFLUENCE,
MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF MOISTURE NOT ASSOCIATED WITHIN
THE LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE PV AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD GO
INTO EAST TEXAS INSTEAD. WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO TRANSITION
ANY LIGHT SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE BACK INTO RAIN BEFORE
ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SYSTEM.
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS BLEND OF DATA WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS MOST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES.
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD START AS SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AND THEN ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX. FACTORS
TO WATCH FOR THE SYSTEM ARE DEPTH OF THE COLD SUB 0C AIRMASS,
DEPTH OF THE SFC BASED MOISTURE TO INFLUENCE SOME DIFFERENT WINTER
PRECIPITATION TYPES, IF THE DRY AIR ALOFT SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER
ATM TO RESULT IN LESS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO RIDGING IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND THE TRACKING OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ITSELF ARE
ALL VARIABLES WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AS OF NOW FOR MONDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 50S
IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.
ZONAL FLOW WITH SLIGHT H500 RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
AND MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WATCHING A POTENTIAL STRONG PERTURBATION OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WHICH COULD BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE.
MECCARIELLO
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...SHERMAN.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.
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