944  
FXUS64 KAMA 101746  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
1246 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
   
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS  
WEEKEND. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN VERY LOW.  
 
VERY LOW CHANCES TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE  
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES WITH SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  
 
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
HIGHS WILL SEE A 10-15 DEGREE DISPARITY ACROSS THE CWA WITH  
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO TREND FOR THE BUILDING OF THE UPPER-  
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DRIER  
WEATHER PRESENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO  
EXPECTED TO STAY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 80S.  
HOWEVER, MOST MODELS LOOK TO SEE A LEE-SIDE LOW CONTINUE TO BUILD  
JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND  
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS PLACEMENT DOES NOT AID IN OUR CHANCES OF  
PRECIPITATION, IT DOES FORCE OUR TYPICAL SET UP FOR DOWN SLOPING  
WINDS AS WELL AS TIGHTEN OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE.  
THESE TWO FACTOR HAVE LEAD TO THE EXPECTATION OF BREEZY TO GUSTY  
WINDS BEING SEEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE  
NORTHWEST LOOKING TO SEE THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS. HOWEVER,  
PRESENT TRENDS ON RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL JET  
SUPPORT THAT WAS INITIALLY THERE COME IN A LOT WEAKER. THE LACK OF  
THIS SUPPORT WILL KEEP WINDS FROM GETTING TOO STRONG OVER THE  
COURSE OF THE DAY, THOUGH A FEW GUST PEAKING AROUND 40 MPH ARE NOT  
OUT OF THE QUESTION. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS SET UP WOULD  
ALSO PROMPT CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER, BUT THE CONTINUE  
MONSOONAL PATTERN TO OUR WEST HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP MOISTURE  
PRESENT OVER THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS TIME MOST MODELS EXPECT  
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO STAY AROUND 28 TO 35% FOR THE  
DAY. ADD THESE DECENT VALUES TO REPORTS OF VERY GREEN FUELS ACROSS  
MOST OF THE PANHANDLES, AND FIRE STARTS WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY  
FOR THE AFTERNOON. INSTEAD WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW SHOWERS  
SNEAKING OFF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS  
OF SATURDAY. CURRENTLY, PRESENT CAM ANALYSIS HAS SEEN THE  
POTENTIAL, BUT MOST OF THEIR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ANYTHING THAT  
CAN SURVIVE THE TRIP WOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SPRINKLES AT  
BEST.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
OUR DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LOOKS TO START BREAKING DOWN AS  
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH IN LATE SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LOOK TO TRY  
AND FORCE MORE CHANCES OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. TO  
ITS ADVANTAGE WILL BE THE STILL LINGER MOISTURE FROM THE MONSOONAL  
PUSH TO OUR WEST AND A LITTLE EXTRA THAT SNEAKS IN LAST MINUTE  
FROM THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRENDING TO KEEP PWAT VALUES  
ABOVE THE 1 INCH MARK WITH PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEARING THE 1.5  
INCH MARK. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS GOING BE HOW FAST THIS FRONT  
ACTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS MOST GUIDANCE IS EXPECTING A  
PRETTY DRY COLD AIR MASS TO BE FOLLOWING RIGHT BEHIND IT. IF THIS  
FRONT CAN COME THROUGH ON A SLOWER PACE, THEN SHOWERS MAY LINGER  
MUCH LONGER AND GIVE US BETTER CHANCES TO SEE HIGHER RAINFALL  
TOTALS. HOWEVER, A MUCH FASTER PACE WOULD SEE A LOT OF THE  
EXPECTED ACTIVITY OCCURRING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH TOTALS IN THE  
PANHANDLES MUCH LOWER. THIS PACE WILL ALSO EFFECT CHANCES THAT  
COULD FOLLOW FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MOST MODEL DO EXPECT THIS  
FRONT TO STALL AND CREATE MORE CHANCES SOUTH OF ITS POSITION  
THANKS TO MOISTURE CONTINUING TO PUSH IN FROM THE GULF. ONCE AGAIN  
IF IT IS TOO FAST AND TOO FAR SOUTH THEN THOSE CHANCES PLUMMET.  
FOR NOW GUIDANCE IS A BIT IN THE MIDDLE AS CHANCES ARE AROUND 20  
TO 40% FOR MONDAY BEFORE LOOKING TO DROP TO AROUND 10 TO 20% THAT  
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY  
WITH MOST MODEL SEEING THE RIDGE BUILD BACK IN THROUGH THE END OF  
NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO FALL BACK INTO  
THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE SLOW WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW  
80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
DRIER WEATHER REMAIN PRESENT TODAY THANKS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE  
SYSTEM STILL BUILDING OVER THE AREA. ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN AT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY, BUT SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER  
MAY PUSH IN OVERNIGHT AS REMNANTS FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED  
TO OCCUR WEST OF US IN NEW MEXICO.  
 
 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...11  
LONG TERM....11  
AVIATION...11  
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