000  
FXUS64 KAMA 051136  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
636 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z ISSUANCE...SITES ARE VFR BUT MAY DROP IF AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
THUNDERSTORMS REACH A SITE. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OR LOCATION OF  
THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN TAF. SOUTHWEST WINDS  
WILL RAMP UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO INCLUDE GUSTS OF  
25-30KTS. WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK THIS EVENING AFTER 02Z.  
 
BEAT  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022/  
 
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...  
 
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE WITH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKING THE  
BEST FOR SEEING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO  
PARMER COUNTY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE COMPLEX TO HAVE WARMING  
CLOUD TOPS. THUS, THE COMPLEX SHOULD DIE OFF AS IT ARRIVES INTO  
THE PANHANDLES. THE STORMS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE  
EVENING PROVIDED MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT NOW LIE AROUND THE  
AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW A TROUGH AXIS FROM THE  
NORTHWESTERN OK PANHANDLE DOWN SOUTHWEST TOWARD CLOVIS, NM.  
WITH ALL THE BOUNDARIES AND TROUGH AXIS, STORMS FIRING UP THIS  
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE SEVERAL PLACES TO FORM. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES  
BETWEEN SHORT RANGE MODELS THOUGH. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN WHERE  
MODELS PLACE THE SURFACE LOW WILL AFFECT THE POSITION OF THE  
TROUGH AXIS. THE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE MODELS PLACE THE UPPER LEVEL  
HIGH WILL AFFECT WHERE UPWARD AND DOWNWARD MOTIONS WILL BE. HAVE  
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES FOR TODAY AROUND 20-30 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE  
AREA. WEDNESDAY HAS SOME SIMILAR PRECIP CHANCES EXCEPT FOR LESS OF  
THE AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS AGAIN HAVE VARIATIONS THAT WILL  
BRING DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING LOCATIONS OF STORMS. BY  
THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLES AND UPS THE  
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE. BY THE WEEK'S END AND  
THE WEEKEND, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND  
SITS OVERHEAD, LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK  
LOOKS TO SEE THE HIGH CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD, BRINGING  
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES  
BACK TO THE AREA AS STORMS COME OFF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH WEAK  
STEERING FLOW, STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVERS. WITH INVERTED-V  
SOUNDINGS, DCAPE WILL BE HIGH OVER THE WEEK AND BRING CHANCES OF  
ISOLATED STRONG WINDS.  
 
BEAT  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
16/16  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab OK Page Main Text Page