822  
FXUS64 KAMA 012338  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
638 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
-CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH THE  
HOLIDAY WEEK WITH EACH DAY SEEING ROUGHLY 20% TO 40% CHANCE. ANY STORM  
COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.  
 
-A BRIEF BREAK FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HOLIDAY WILL  
SEE INCREASING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOWER  
90S.  
 
-MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FOR THE  
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A SECONDARY SYSTEM PUSHES IN SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY.  
 
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE SOUTHERN  
GREAT PLAINS REMAINS, ALTHOUGH A BIT DISORGANIZED AND WEAK.  
CURRENTLY THERE IS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CA. A  
LARGE AREA OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT  
PLAINS DOWN INTO MEXICO. INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THIS AREA IS  
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE FA SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO  
LOWER 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW, AS CLOUDS REDUCED INSOLATION.  
 
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION, AND WILL  
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE POPS FOR FA. FOR TODAY HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A  
LACK OF LIFT FOR ANY IMPACTFUL RAINFALL. MAY SEE SHORT LIVE  
SHOWERS MORE SO THAN THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE REDUCED THE POPS LEAVING  
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TX  
PANHANDLE. EVEN GOING INTO TOMORROW, THE NBM IS STILL GIVING SOME  
PRETTY HIGH POPS AROUND 40 TO 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
TX PANHANDLE. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AT THIS TIME, BUT HAVE  
LEFT THE NBM POPS FOR NOW. OVERALL, CAMS ARE NOT EXCITED ABOUT  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
ON THE 4TH OF JULY, THE FA IS PROGGED TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 80S TO  
LOWER 90S FOR THE AFTERNOON. NBM POPS HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTHERN FA AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FA  
DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND  
DO NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON WHAT EXACTLY TO EXPECT FOR THE HOLIDAY.  
WOULD BE OPTIMISTICALLY HOPEFUL THAT IT WILL NOT RAIN ON  
FESTIVITIES, BUT PREPARED FOR SOME INTERRUPTIONS AS WE REMAIN IN A  
VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  
 
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES RAISE EVEN MORE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.  
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE COMBINED  
PANHANDLES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN MAY BE IN  
STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAPPING AROUND THE  
LOWER 90S TO UPPER 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL  
TAF SITES. CIGS AT KAMA COULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND SUNRISE  
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF  
AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT  
5-15 KTS.  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...36  
LONG TERM....36  
AVIATION...29  
 
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