817
FXUS64 KAMA 172320
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
520 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
- NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, WITH INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE A BIT GOING INTO
THIS EVENING, WITH THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE HOLDING ONTO SOME 15
MPH WEST WINDS. AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH EXITS
OFF TO THE EAST, ALL AREAS IN THE PANHANDLES SHOULD SEE THOSE
WINDS SUBSIDE EVEN MORE AND TURN TO THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING.
THAT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH COULD BE SAID TO BE A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND WILL BE CAUSING COOLER HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOWER
70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BE SEEN ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LEAVING THE ROCKIES AND ENTERING THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT SOME BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
LEAVES THE RIDGE OVERHEAD IS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF A BIT AND KEEP
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED. IT IS THE SYSTEM FURTHER
UPSTREAM OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CA AT THIS TIME THAT MAY TAKE A
MORE FAVORABLE PATH TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
PROSPECTS FOR MOISTURE COME WED NIGHT/THU.
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THU, LIKE WITH ANY SYSTEM
TRAVERSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. FOR NOW THE NBM IS GIVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE WED NIGHT (AHEAD OF THE LOW)
WITH POPS INCREASING BOTH IN COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE ON THU. POPS
ARE NOW AS HIGH AS 60 TO 70 ACROSS THE EASTERN FA. HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL COME FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UP IN THE
AIR. AROUND HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ONLY GIVE A COUPLE TO
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHILE THE OTHER HALF GIVE A
COUPLE TO FEW TENTHS. THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE MAY TAP
INTO SOME INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND
POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FALL WHILE THE REST OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLE SHOULD ONLY SEE REGULAR OLE SHOWERS.
HOW FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS
TO BE HAD, AS WELL AS THE TRACK. HOWEVER, LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY OUT AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS, LEAVING
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS. MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOADING OFF
OF SOUTHERN CA WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES
LATE SUNDAY. NBM IS GIVING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS
OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THE STRONG WINDS OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY ARE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE. BREEZY, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY STAY UP THIS EVENING AT
AMA, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN FURTHER BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW, LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...55
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