604
FXUS64 KAMA 141944
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
244 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TOMORROW, WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH EXPECTED LEADING TO
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED.
- THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING. ANY FIRES ON THE LANDSCAPE
COULD EXHIBIT HIGH RESISTANCE TO CONTROL AND SPREAD SOUTH
RAPIDLY.
- COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY MORNING.
- RECORD HIGHS COULD OCCUR TODAY AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
EVIDENCE OF POTENT UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON LATEST
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS IT DIGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW.
LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN HONING IN ON A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH,
WITH VERY STRONG H5 JET MAX OF 90 TO 100KTS CROSSING THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW. THIS OCCURS AS A
COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH WITH SIGNIFICANT SFC HEIGHT RISES OF 3-5
MB/HR FROM ABOUT 12Z TO 21Z. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND HELP MIX DOWN STRONG WINDS ALOFT, WITH 50
TO 60 KNOT WINDS ADVERTISED IN LOW LEVEL JET IN THE 850 TO 700MB
LAYER (STRONGEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES). THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE
VERY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
COMBINED TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES STARTING AS EARLY AS 12Z IN
THE FAR NORTH TO AROUND 15Z IN THE SOUTH, AND LASTING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 21Z, AND THIS IS WHEN THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) TO SEE
WIND GUSTS OVER 70MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS, LIKELY FAVORING AREAS
HIGHER IN ELEVATION BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR REMOVED FROM THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WINDS IN THE EAST (STINNETT, SUNRAY,
GUYMON, AMARILLO, AND PANTEX ARE A FEW SITES THAT COME TO MIND).
WITH THE STRONG WINDS, DUST CAUSING LOW VISIBILITY WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BE A PROBLEM. WE DO HAVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING DUST
SOURCES UP IN NORTHWEST KS INTO NE, INCLUDING RECENT BURN SCARS,
BUT OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE LOCAL DUST SOURCES SUCH AS DRY
FIELDS THAT ARE NOT PLANTED AND NOT WATERED. THIS CAN LEAD TO
SUDDEN AND DRAMATIC REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. AS SUCH, HAVE
ISSUED A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR TOMORROW.
WITH THE STRONG CAA, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WEAK SIGNALS FOR SOME
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES
BRIEFLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT THE MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED
AND ALMOST NON-EXISTANT IN THE LOW LEVELS, SO MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. IF CAA IS STRONG ENOUGH, SOME SNOW
FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT. IN ANY CASE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY UNCOMFORTABLE TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOT INCREASING
MUCH FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS, STAYING IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S BEFORE
QUICKLY DECREASING LATE TOMORROW AS THE WINDS DECREASE INTO THE
EVENING. WIND CHILLS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S BY
AFTERNOON, AND WHILE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SINGLE DIGIT AND TEENS WIND CHILLS BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
WARD
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
MONDAY WILL BE COOL WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND GREATLY EXPANDS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LEAD TO A NOTABLE WARMING TREND, WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST RAW ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE (LREF) IS SHOWING 50TH PERCENTILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S WITH 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES IN THE LOW 90S BY
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, 50TH PERCENTILE H5 HEIGHTS OF 594DM ARE
INDICATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE
SLIGHTLY WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WARD
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD
FRONT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 50KTS BY LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BLOWING DUST MAY LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW
1 MILE, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE MVFR/IFR
VSBYS YET.
WARD
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TO
LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST RFTIS OF 3-4 ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE WEST-NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES WHERE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL AS LOW AS 5-10% IN THE PRESENCE OF
10-20 MPH SOUTHWEST WINDS. SIMILARLY DRY AIR WILL EXIST ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT LIGHTER WINDS ARE FAVORED WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
MOSTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES, DRY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW.
SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 35-45 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 55-65+ MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-20% TO CREATE RFTIS OF 3-5
FOR MUCH OF THE COMBINED TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. DRIEST
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, WHILE
STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST FURTHER EAST. REGARDLESS, THE STRONG
WINDS AND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN PROPONENT FOR PROMOTING DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS FOR POTENTIAL FIRE SPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY FIRES
ON THE LANDSCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING COULD
BECOME HIGHLY RESISTANT TO CONTROL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
RAPID SPREAD TO THE SOUTH.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>003-006-
007.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ001>020-317.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
TXZ001>020-317.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ001>020-
317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ001>003.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
OKZ001>003.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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