819  
FXUS64 KAMA 201055 AAA  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
555 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS  
BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOW TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT GUY AND DHT  
WITH SUNSET, BUT WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 20 KNOTS AT AMA WITH  
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO  
REMAIN VFR.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE  
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND WILL MOVE OUT INTO  
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY EASTER MORNING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE ROCKIES WITH  
THE APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SO SURFACE WINDS WILL GET UP  
INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA. THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SO THE DOWNSLOPE  
WINDS WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THE  
WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GREEN UP SHOULD HELP TO DETER  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT ONCE IT  
REACHES THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY MORNING. ONE PIECE OF IT WILL  
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF IT DROPS  
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THE  
NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH  
THE PANHANDLES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH  
WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE  
EAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL PUT THE PANHANDLES IN THE NORTHEAST QUAD  
OF THIS LOW WHICH WILL PUT US IN DIFFLUENCE A LOFT. A COUPLE OF  
VORT MAXES WILL LIKELY MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA  
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT FROM THE VORT MAXES, THE  
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING LIFTED OVER THE  
COLD DOME OF AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ALL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES  
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM OR TWO COULD  
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT IF AN ELEVATED  
STORM CAN SURVIVE THIS FAR NORTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT AT THIS TIME AS  
THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED  
CAPE.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN  
HEIGHTS WILL START TO RISE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING  
STORM. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME ZONAL THROUGH THE REST OF  
THE FORECAST AND ANY STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR  
NORTH.  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
15/29  
 
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