531
FXUS64 KAMA 181148
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
648 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2019
AVIATION
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SURFACE WINDS TO NORTH THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF ALL
TERMINALS. LIGHT EAST WINDS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. NO LOW CLOUDS OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24
HOURS.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2019/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES BELOW 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE
OF SATURDAY ARE FORECAST. RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND DOWNSLOPING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT SHOULD PROMOTE RESPECTABLE
WARMING. WILL ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR PALO DURO CANYON AND ADJACENT
ARMSTRONG AND RANDALL COUNTIES, AS WELL AS FOR HUTCHINSON COUNTY,
WHERE HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH 105 DEGREES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HIGHER IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH SHEAR PERHAPS RISING ABOVE 30 KT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAP. STRONG GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD FROM THUNDERSTORMS AS DCAPE VALUES WELL ABOVE 1000 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT THAT ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
COCKRELL
LONG TERM...TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER HOT DAY APPEARS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE PANHANDLES TO START THE
LONG TERM PERIODS MONDAY. 595DM 500MB HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE
CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE, SO ANOTHER DAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS
APPEARS LIKELY. GIVEN BUILDING HEIGHTS, HAVE TWEAKED HIGHS UPWARD
JUST A LITTLE BUT AVOIDED GOING HIGHER AS A WEAK WAVE MAY GENERATE
CIRRUS OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS, TEMPERING INSOLATION AND HOLDING
BACK HIGHS JUST A BIT. GUIDANCE IS ALSO LARGELY IN AGREEMENT THAT A
340-345K THETAE RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE FA BY THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK WAVE RIDES THE TOP OF THE UPPER HIGH. THIS
PATTERN OF MARGINAL MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS, SOARING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND WEAK FORCING HAS BEEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THE PAST FEW DAYS. THUS, IT APPEARS MORE
THAN REASONABLE TO EXPECT THE SAME AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE FORECAST. ANY CONVECTION - ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER OR NOT -
THAT GETS GOING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN
PROGGED DCAPE VALUES ARE ONCE AGAIN UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE A BIT COOLER AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH MORE EXPANSIVE MOISTURE PROGGED AT 700MB, HAVE
EXPANDED COVERAGE OF POPS COMPARED TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN,
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
SUBTLE BUT VITALLY IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN AMONGST GFS/EC/CMC
IN HOW THE RIDGE ALOFT BREAKS DOWN. GFS IS QUICKEST, DEPICTING THE
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A SLOW MOVING 500MB
TROUGH SLIDING NW-SE OVER THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WOULD PROMOTE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION. CMC BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE JUST ABOUT AS QUICKLY BUT
THE TRAILING 500MB TROUGH IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE, REACHING THE
OZARKS BY SATURDAY, GIVING US ONLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TO PICK UP
RAINFALL. THE EC SIMPLY DEPICTS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SLOWLY
WEAKENING AS THE APEX OF THIS FEATURE MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD THE
GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION. SIMILARLY, THERE
ARE A WIDE RANGE OF GEFS SOLUTIONS BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME
CLUSTERING AROUND EITHER THE OPERATIONAL GFS OR EC, WHICH IS
UNFORTUNATELY NOT HELPFUL FOR OUR CASE. SO, THE BOTTOM LINE IS,
WITHOUT ANYTHING TO CONFIDENTLY LATCH ONTO, THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
CONTINUES TO GO WITH CONSENSUS POPS WITH MENTIONS OVER SEVERAL
PERIODS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLE BY
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK IN ANY CASE. BUT, EXPECT THIS TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS HEIGHTS LOOK TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
FERGUSON
AVIATION...06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. SKY EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS. NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.
BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE BY EARLY EVENING WITH EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
COCKRELL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 102 71 101 72 98 / 5 0 20 20 20
BEAVER OK 98 68 103 74 101 / 0 5 10 20 10
BOISE CITY OK 95 65 99 68 97 / 0 0 10 10 10
BORGER TX 106 72 106 75 103 / 0 0 20 20 10
BOYS RANCH TX 102 70 102 72 99 / 0 0 20 20 20
CANYON TX 104 70 101 71 98 / 10 5 10 20 20
CLARENDON TX 105 74 103 73 100 / 20 10 10 10 10
DALHART TX 99 66 100 68 97 / 0 0 10 20 20
GUYMON OK 97 67 102 71 100 / 0 0 10 20 10
HEREFORD TX 104 70 101 70 98 / 10 5 10 10 20
LIPSCOMB TX 103 71 105 74 102 / 5 5 10 20 10
PAMPA TX 104 72 102 72 99 / 5 5 20 20 10
SHAMROCK TX 105 72 102 73 99 / 20 20 5 20 5
WELLINGTON TX 107 73 105 74 101 / 30 20 5 10 5
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...HUTCHINSON...PALO DURO
CANYON...RANDALL.
OK...NONE.
03/77
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