909
FXUS64 KAMA 031123
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
523 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
- AN APPROACHING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING FLURRIES TO LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
- POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR A LOCALIZED BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TONIGHT THAT COULD LEAD
TO SMALL AREA RECEIVING AN EXTRA 1 TO 2 INCHES.
- DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 50S AS EARLY AS SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE COOL, BUT NOT AS COLD AS THEY HAVE
BEEN THE PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW 20S AS OF THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING. HIGHS TODAY WILL NOT RISE UP THAT MUCH DUE TO THE COLD
AIR MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WITH THE WEST HAVING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL. LATEST MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1+
INCHES, BUT CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME. THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND CIMARRON
COUNTY IN OKLAHOMA HAVE THE RELATIVELY HIGHER POTENTIAL IN
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AT THIS MOMENT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS
LARGELY ON TRACK.
MUSCHA
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
LATEST SATELLITE TONIGHT IS CONTINUING TO SEE THE POSITIVELY
TILTED 500MB DISTURBANCE PUSH ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WITH
A LEADING COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE PANHANDLES TILL
THE EARLY HOUR OF WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
MUCH COOLER AIR FOR THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DELAY TILL LATER THAT EVENING
WHEN MODELS SEE THE MOISTURE PUSH IN WITH THE DISTURBANCE. WITH
THE COLDER AIR MASS ARRIVING EARLIER FOR THE PANHANDLES, MOST
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR SNOW TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE DAY. MEANWHILE, LATEST CAM RUNS ARE
CONTINUING THE TREND OF SEEING MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD LIFT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES, WHICH IN TURN HAS SPREAD SNOW CHANCES MUCH FURTHER
EAST THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL OUR BEST CHANCES WILL LIE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WHERE CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
AROUND 60% AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WHERE THE BIGGEST QUESTION STILL LIES, HOWEVER, IS ON HOW MUCH
SNOW IS POSSIBLE. FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLES, AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED
TO AROUND 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BY THE TIME ACTIVITY
WRAPS UP THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND, RECENT CAMS RUNS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THANKS IMPART TO MESOSCALE FEATURES
WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TERRAIN. WHILE PINING DOWN THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT, IT
DOES OPEN UP THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IN THE SPAN OF ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS. AS
MENTION PRIOR, HOWEVER, PINING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
BAND, OR POSSIBLY EVEN BANDS, HAS NOT BEEN EASY WITH PRESENT CAMS
PLACING A 10 TO 30% CHANCE OF SEEING AN INCH OR GREATER ANYWHERE
FROM BOISE CITY, OK TO JUST SOUTH OF US IN PLAINVIEW, TX.
REGARDLESS, SNOW SHOWERS DO LOOK TO TAPPER OFF BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON A MODELS SEE THE SYSTEM MAKE A QUICK EXIT IN FAVOR OR A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
MODEL AGREEMENT LOOKS TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW FOR THE PANHANDLES AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
THIS FLOW ALONGSIDE WEAK RIDGING DOES LOOK TO BUT AN END TO THE
PANHANDLES CHANCES OF ACTIVE WEATHER, WITH MOST ENSEMBLES KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESS THAN 10% THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THESE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PROMPT A BIT OF A WARM UP
FOR THE PANHANDLES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEKEND QUICKLY
RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MEANWHILE, NEXT WEEK COULD SEE
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S SHOULD THIS DRY TREND
CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS MORNING BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE
IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE LOW CEILINGS, UNFAVORABLE
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATER HALF OF THIS TAF
CYCLE DUE TO SNOW FALLING AT THE TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S
AND PREVAILING SNOW AT EACH OF THE SITES TO GIVE TIMING POTENTIAL
FOR WHEN SNOW MAY START (PROB30S) AND WHEN SNOW SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. SNOW WILL LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
DURING THE DAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE DOWN TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET
AND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05
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