970
FXUS64 KAMA 181056
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
456 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- ONE LAST WARM UP INTO THE 50 TO LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE 30 TO 40S AGAIN MONDAY.
- A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXITS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PANHANDLES MONDAY MORNING WITH ARRIVAL OF A NEW COLD FRONT.
- DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER HOLD FOR THE REST OF THE NEW WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
PRESENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE THE EXIT OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. HERE IN THE PANHANDLES THIS EXIT WILL SEE THE
PRESENT LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL JETS FINALLY START MOVING OFF DURING
THE MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE EXIT OF THE JETS
WILL NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH TO KEEP US FROM SEEING SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AND LATE MORNING HOURS, BUT THOSE
WINDS DO LOOK TO BE QUICK TO DIE OFF PAST THE NOON TIMEFRAME.
INSTEAD THE FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE MORE ON THE DRY OUT AND
ASSOCIATED WARM UP THAT WILL FOLLOW RIGHT BEHIND THE EXIT THAT
AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS, LATEST CAMS ARE SEEING A DECENT WARM AND
DRY POCKET FOLLOW IN THAT WILL SEE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20%. THESE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO HELP IN SEEING TEMPERATURES REBOUND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. UNFORTUNATELY, WE
CAN’T TALK ABOUT DRY CONDITIONS WITH OUT MENTIONING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. PRESENTLY, THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW-END ELEVATED
CONDITIONS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, MOST OF THESE CONCERNS ARE MORE DRIVEN BY THE PRESENT
FUEL STATUS AND DRY CONDITIONS, RATHER THAN THE WINDS.
REGARDLESS A SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT DOES LOOK TO FOLLOW MONDAY AS A
SHORT-WAVE PASS THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS SHORT WAVE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, PRESENT CAMS ARE ONLY SEEING
THESE CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 20% WITH
ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH. DESPITE THE LACK OF
WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES, THIS WAVE AND FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLES AND PUSH HIGH
BACK INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE A STRONG CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
HOLD OVER THE HUDSON BAY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE PANHANDLES
UNDER A MORE NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FOR
MAJORITY OF MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR THE PANHANDLE TO STAY A BIT MORE REGULATED WITH
TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO 50S THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IT DOES UNFORTUNATELY KEEP THE
AREA RATHER DRY WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STAYING UNDER 10%.
STILL MODELS DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT MORE OF AN ACTIVE
PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
DISAGREEMENT TO SAY ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 454 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY WINDS
ARE ONGOING IN AMARILLO AND GUYMON WHICH WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS NORTHERLY IN AMARILLO
AND GUYMON THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS TURN
EASTERLY AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...52
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