621  
FXUS64 KAMA 082324  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
524 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS  
CONTINUE MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST AS A LEE SURFACE LOW, JUST NORTH  
OF THE PANHANDLES, CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST WITH IT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT  
OF THE NORTH, BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  
WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG BEHIND THE SYSTEM,  
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TOMORROW. THIS IS ALSO IN  
PART DUE TO ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PANHANDLES, BUT WILL  
BEGIN TO DRAW UP MOISTURE, MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLES, AND  
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN, MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. IT'S  
LIKELY WE WOULD WARM UP A BIT MORE TOMORROW, BUT AS THE CLOUD  
COVER INCREASES EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL REALLY SLOW DOWN THE  
HEATING FROM THE SUN. RAIN CHANCES COULD MAKE IT AS FAR WEST A  
AMARILLO, BUT RIGHT NOW ITS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE AND MAY NOT  
BE LONG LIVED IF AT ALL. AS YOU MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF AN  
AMARILLO, TX TO BEAVER, OK LINE THE CHANCES INCREASE, WITH THE  
HIGHEST CHANCES IN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT  
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WE MIGHT GET SOME CLEARING EARLY  
ENOUGH TO GET THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN THE NORTHWEST. RIGHT  
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE IN THE MID 20S UP IN CIMARRON COUNTY  
TO MID 40S DOWN IN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY.  
 
WEBER  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLES. THE  
ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE EASTERN PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST 08/12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN H500 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST  
FROM SE COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH  
THE UL LOW IN SE CO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD  
PROGRESSING SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT, TD VALUES WILL GET INTO THE  
50S. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH A SE SFC FLOW AND THE TRACK OF THE  
SURFACE LOW MOVING MORE NNE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, THERE IS A  
CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN  
AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM. A LOW CHANCE, BUT SOME NONETHELESS. ANY  
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL QUICKLY  
MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS WHERE MORE  
FAVORABLE LL THETA-E ADVECTION WOULD BE OCCURRING.  
 
AS PRECIP EXITS AND NW FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF H500 LOW MOVES INTO  
THE PANHANDLES, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL. FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR  
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM  
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE A COLD  
FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH  
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
MECCARIELLO  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS  
BELOW 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL  
GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW AND WILL BE  
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE  
REGION TOMORROW. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS  
MAY IMPACT KAMA TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. CIGS AND  
VISIBILITY MAY DROP INTO MVFR AT KAMA IF RAIN SHOWERS GO OVER THE  
TERMINAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO  
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.  
 
MUSCHA  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES IN NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE  
WESTERN PANHANDLES. AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE PRETTY DRY AND  
RFTI'S ARE IN THE 3-5 RANGE, BUT IT'S MAINLY RH DRIVEN, SO  
CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST ARE MINIMAL.  
FURTHER SOUTH, SOME STRONGER WINDS AND RH VALUES THAT ARE COMING  
IN A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED ARE ALLOWING FRO RFTI'S TO RANGE FROM  
3 TO 6. HOWEVER THE ERC'S ARE MUCH LOWER IN THE SOUTH AND  
THEREFORE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS ONLY ELEVATED. WINDS SHOULD  
BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, SO THE FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN AS WELL.  
 
WEBER  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMARILLO TX 31 55 35 55 / 0 20 20 0  
BEAVER OK 24 55 31 55 / 0 10 20 0  
BOISE CITY OK 23 55 26 51 / 0 0 0 0  
BORGER TX 31 58 35 57 / 0 20 20 0  
BOYS RANCH TX 27 58 30 56 / 0 10 10 0  
CANYON TX 32 56 34 56 / 0 20 20 0  
CLARENDON TX 36 53 41 56 / 0 30 40 0  
DALHART TX 23 55 26 54 / 0 10 10 0  
GUYMON OK 23 56 28 54 / 0 10 10 0  
HEREFORD TX 31 58 34 58 / 0 20 20 0  
LIPSCOMB TX 28 55 35 56 / 0 10 40 0  
PAMPA TX 32 55 36 55 / 0 20 30 0  
SHAMROCK TX 34 55 40 57 / 0 30 60 0  
WELLINGTON TX 36 55 43 59 / 0 30 60 10  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...89  
LONG TERM....29  
AVIATION...05  
 
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