749
FXUS64 KAMA 022337
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- A WARMING TREND OVER IS EXPECTED NEXT THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB BACK IN THE UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES.
- MONDAY CONTINUES TO TREND FOR WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES THAT COULD RESULT IN HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXISTS EACH AFTERNOON
NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES STAYING MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
PRESENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUE TO SEE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSH FURTHER AND FURTHER EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS PUSH WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH SITING
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNTIED STATE TO ELONGATE EASTWARDS TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WARMING TREND TO BEGIN
TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. FOR TODAY THIS WARMING TREND IS
ONLY LOOKING REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH SOME OF OUR WARMER
LOCATIONS AT OR OVER THE TRIPLE-DIGIT MARK. HOWEVER FOR MONDAY,
PRESENT CAMS ARE SEEING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRESENT IN
AT THE 850MB LEVELS, WHICH WILL ACT TO AMPLIFY HEAT FOR THE DAY.
AS IT STANDS, PRESENT EXPECTATIONS ARE SEEING WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-
DIGIT TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES. TO ADD TO THIS HEAT
WILL ALSO BE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SOME RELIEF MAY
FOLLOW FOR THE NORTH LATER THAT EVENING AS CAMS DO SEE A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE PUSH ACROSS. AT THIS TIME CAMS ARE NOT
CONFIDENT IN SEEING STORMS FORM OFF THIS DISTURBANCE WITH CHANCES
AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT. STILL ANY ATTEMPTS THAT DO OCCUR COULD
LEAD TO SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER THAT CAN COOL OFF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MOST MODEL AGREEMENT DOES SEE
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STAY SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNTIED STATES. HOWEVER, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
NOW WELL MOVED OFF THE CONUS, MOST RUNS DO SEE THE HIGH STAYING
ELONGATE BACK EASTWARDS TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. THIS ELONGATION
WILL IN TURN SEE THE PANHANDLES WARM UP ONCE AGAIN WITH MOST OF
THE WEEK AND WEEKEND SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR OVER THE
TRIPLE-DIGIT MARK. WITH THIS CONTINUOUS HEAT PRESENT FOR SUCH A
LONG PERIOD, THE PANHANDLES WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE NEED OF
HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS LIKE THE PALO DURO
CANYON WHERE TEMPERATURES CAN GET HOTTER THAN EXPECTED. ONE SILVER
LINING TO THIS PATTERN, HOWEVER, IS THAT IT DOES OPENS UP US TO A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ON OCCASION. THIS FLOW IS
BENEFICIAL IN THAT IT CAN MAKE IT EASIER FOR WEAK SHORT-WAVES TO
BRUSH THE PANHANDLES, OR PROVIDE ENOUGH STEERING FLOW TO SEEING
STORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES. PRESENTLY CHANCES OF STORMS ARE PRESENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THESE CHANCES ARE ONLY 20 TO 30
PERCENT AT THEIR BEST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MOST MODEL AGREEMENT DOES SEE
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STAY SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNTIED STATES. HOWEVER, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
NOW WELL MOVED OFF THE CONUS, MOST RUNS DO SEE THE HIGH STAYING
ELONGATE BACK EASTWARDS TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. THIS ELONGATION
WILL IN TURN SEE THE PANHANDLES WARM UP ONCE AGAIN WITH MOST OF
THE WEEK AND WEEKEND SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR OVER THE
TRIPLE-DIGIT MARK. WITH THIS CONTINUOUS HEAT PRESENT FOR SUCH A
LONG PERIOD, THE PANHANDLES WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE NEED OF
HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS LIKE THE PALO DURO
CANYON WHERE TEMPERATURES CAN GET HOTTER THAN EXPECTED. ONE SILVER
LINING TO THIS PATTERN, HOWEVER, IS THAT IT DOES OPENS UP US TO A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ON OCCASION. THIS FLOW IS
BENEFICIAL IN THAT IT CAN MAKE IT EASIER FOR WEAK SHORT-WAVES TO
BRUSH THE PANHANDLES, OR PROVIDE ENOUGH STEERING FLOW TO SEEING
STORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES. PRESENTLY CHANCES OF STORMS ARE PRESENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THESE CHANCES ARE ONLY 20 TO 30
PERCENT AT THEIR BEST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
SOME MARGINAL LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGUY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, AND
MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...38
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