023
FXUS64 KAMA 210420
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1020 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
- MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO POTENTIALLY
BELOW AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW FOR THE PANHANDLES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT SUPPORT
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE PANHANDLES, BUT WILL LEAD TO NICE DAYS
WEATHER WISE! CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
COLD NIGHT FOR TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S. THANKFULLY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THE WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH BELOW THE AIR TEMPERATURE. VERY
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER THE AREA. WAA AT H850 WILL BE A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW WHICH
WILL AID IN INCREASING AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. WITH CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING AND LIGHT WINDS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY WITH
LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WHICH WILL AID IN BRINGING WARMER
AIR OVER THE PANHANDLES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE AND FLIP FLOP ON POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
THE OVERALL TREND FAVORS A COLD FRONT TO PASS OVER THE AREA EITHER
LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. MODEL GUIDANCE DEVIATES ON THE STRENGTH AND
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOLLOWING THE FRONT SO THERE IS A WIDE RANGE
OF POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES AMONG THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR EACH
DAY NEXT WEEK. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
COMING DAYS FOR MODELS TO HOPEFULLY CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD ALL TERMINALS AT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER WEATHER OF NOTE
WILL BE A WIND SHIFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT WILL SEE
SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
TERMINALS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE SPEEDS GREATER THAN 10 TO 12 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 32 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 27 55 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 27 56 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 31 61 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 29 59 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 30 61 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 33 60 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 27 59 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 25 56 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 31 62 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 29 56 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 32 59 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 33 59 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 32 60 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...11
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