175
FXUS64 KAMA 131127
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK LIKELY TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
- POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THIS
WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND
A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES FROM THE EAST, MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTH EAST AND INTO TEXAS. WITH A CLEAR LACK OF SURFACE FEATURES
TO INDUCE LIFT IN THE SHORT TERM, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND POSSIBLE UPSLOPING
FLOW. COUPLED WITH ANY MID-LEVEL SUPPORT THAT MAKES IT AS FAR NORTH
AS THE PANHANDLES, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOONS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS A DRY START TO THE WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES (HIGH 80'S TO LOW 90'S).
FERGUSON
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
WEDNESDAY, AN ENHANCED JET RESPONSE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE (IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS) AND
THE CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE (IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS). THIS
COULD PLACE THE PANHANDLES IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A WEAK
EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING MID-LEVEL
SUPPORT TO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH POSSIBLY 1000 J/KG AND LACKLUSTER
SHEAR, WHICH COULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON PULSING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PANHANDLES. ALSO, GROWING CONFIDENCE IN PWAT VALUES OVER 1 INCH AND
STORM MOTIONS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS COULD RESULT IN DECENT RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH FLASH FLOODING AS A POTENTIAL THREAT.
DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS PLAY OUT FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK, WE COULD SEE MID-LEVEL FORCING STICK AROUND IN THE
PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE COMPLEX
SCENARIO OF A REX BLOCK AND THE END OF THE WEEK BEING RIGHT AROUND
WHEN IT IS BREAKING DOWN, IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW THE
THE DYNAMICS WILL PLAY OUT.
FERGUSON
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TAF SITES, AS WINDS IN GENERAL WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 15KT RANGE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST. EXCEPTION TO THE VFR IS THE TEMPO GROUP AT KGUY
TO ACCOUNT FOR VERY ISOLATED PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS CAUSING LIMITED
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...89
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page