393  
FXUS64 KAMA 212323  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
523 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL  
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 KTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF  
PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE FROM SCT TO MORE BKN/OVC AT MID/HIGH CIGS  
CLOSER TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
MECCARIELLO  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 343 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020/  
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...  
FOR TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY AFTERNOON BENIGN WEATHER IS IN THE  
OFFING AS A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH ITS AXIS EXPECTED  
TO BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING  
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OK  
AND TX PANHANDLES FROM THE SUBTROPICS IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED UPPER  
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN CA  
COAST. THIS PARTICULAR STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD  
ACROSS SRN CA TOWARDS SOUTHERN NV AND WESTERN AZ BY LATE SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY  
AND WERE ACCEPTED. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW  
PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ARGUE IN FAVOR OF NO POPS FOR  
THE AREA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
ANDRADE  
 
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...  
A 500MB CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALI WILL SWING ACROSS THE FOUR  
CORNERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THE  
EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE AN 80 TO 90 KNOT JET STREAK WILL SET UP  
SOUTH OF THE LOW WITH THE PANHANDLES UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION AND  
THE POTENTIAL FOR RISING AIR. THIS LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA ON  
MONDAY, BUT QUICKLY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS  
THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE  
FORECAST AREA IS LEFT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A CLOSED LOW FORMS OFF THE ROCKIES AND BECOMES CO-  
LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PATTERN SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL  
FORM ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE LOW WITH A PRESSURE CHANGE OF  
7 MB PER 3 HRS AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONGER  
WINDS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS  
THE POTENTIAL TO MIX THE 500-600MB 50 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE. A  
WIND HEADLINE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION YET AS WIND SPEEDS COULD  
REACH AN EXCESS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS DURING PEAK MIXING. WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING  
HOURS DUE TO STRONG WINDS RESIDING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE  
SURFACE LOW.  
 
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE, WILL  
SWING ACROSS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS TO  
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE,  
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS FED NORTHEAST OVER MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS  
BEFORE GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH AND BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.  
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, THE SURFACE TO 500MB REMAINS  
SATURATED WITH ABOVE 400MB REMAINING DRY. AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE  
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY, LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY PLUS ADDITIONAL LIFT  
FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 500MB JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE THE  
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. QUICKLY DRY AIR IN THE  
MIDLEVELS MOVES IN AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES FURTHER SOUTH, THE  
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE SUPPORT.  
 
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY, ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION  
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL REMAIN LIQUID. SOUNDINGS IN THE  
NORTHEAST AND EAST SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH HIGH LCLS AND LOW  
CLOUD TOPS, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO FORM. THERE IS A  
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE  
A TONGUE OF 700MB THETA-E STRETCHES ACROSS THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS  
IN THE 50S; HOWEVER, DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE  
SPEED SHEAR OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE DRY AIR  
MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING TO NEAR OR  
BELOW FREEZING IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
 
ANOTHER DEEP ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LIMITED  
WITH THIS NEXT WAVE AS DRY AIR RESIDES IN THE MIDLEVELS AND NEAR THE  
SURFACE WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE IN THE 700MB LEVEL. WITH COLDER  
TEMPERATURES BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, THE CHANCE FOR  
RAIN/SNOW MIX CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS SECOND CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE  
SECOND WAVE WITH DAYTIME MIXING OF THE 30 TO 40 KNOT JET AT 850MB TO  
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
AFTER TUESDAY THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES, BUT COLDER  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO THE 50S AS LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
RUTT  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS IN  
EXCESS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE  
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH A COLD FRONT INTENDED  
TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO  
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.  
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WILL  
BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES  
IN THE 30S AND 40S DUE TO THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE  
DAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE  
NORTH AND EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR  
LIGHTNING THAT COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS.  
 
RUTT  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
29/89  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab OK Page Main Text Page