631
FXUS64 KAMA 022250
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
550 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED FRIDAY, LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.
- VERY LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW, WITH AN UPTICK IN
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
- THE WEEKEND HAS POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WET, BUT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE AS WE ARE WATCHING A TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE TRACK OF
ITS REMNANTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY IN WAKE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT CLIPPED THE PANHANDLES. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE MID
80S TO A COUPLE SPOTS THAT MAY TOUCH 90 TODAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
IN STORE FOR TOMORROW AS WE MOVE INTO THE 90S. THERE IS A POTENT
UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MULTIPLE IMPULSES
ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE MAIN CIRCULATION. ONE OF WHICH IS
SET TO PUSH A QUICK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WITH IT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS (POSSIBLY SEVERE) STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO OUR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
VERY LOW POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, AS
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ~20% THAT WE GET A STORM OR TWO. DESPITE
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM, WE EXPECT A SURGE OF WARMER
AIR TO MOVE IN ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE THAT WILL BE
DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. BUT A VERY LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
PROVIDING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDWEST THOSE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY EXPAND SOUTH TO OUR AREA FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AS A SECONDARY SYSTEM COMING FROM ALASKA,
AND ACROSS WESTERN CANADA, IS PROGGED TO LATCH ONTO THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH. THAT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A SURGE IN THE COOLER
AIR TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY, AND LAST MOST OF THE
WEEKEND, FINISHING OUT WITH A REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AS A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
BIG THING WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE MOISTURE
POTENTIAL. IT'S VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR, BUT WE HAVE A TROPICAL
SYSTEM SETTING UP OVER THE BAJA CURRENTLY, AND DEPENDING ON IF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER, AS WELL AS IT'S TIMING OF WHEN IT EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS TEXAS ON FRIDAY, WE COULD BE LOOKING 1 TO 2" OF
RAINFALL FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, OVER ABOUT A 48
HOUR PERIOD. NOW A LOT CAN STILL GO WRONG WITH THIS, AS SOME
MODELS HAVE HINTED AT THE SYSTEM LOSING SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION
OVER THE BAJA, AND NOT MUCH WOULD BE LEFT BY THE TIME IT MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. ALSO, IF THE LARGE SCALE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
PUSHES THE DRIER AIR TOO FAR SOUTH, THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL JUST BE
SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. SO STILL A LOT OF THINGS TO
IRON OUT AS WE GET CLOSER. '
WEBER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY TOMORROW, RANGING BETWEEN 10-15 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FAR TOO LOW TO MAKE
ANY MENTIONS AT THIS TIME.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...55
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