303
FXUS64 KAMA 122319
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
619 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM, AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
THE PANHANDLES WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EARLY TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY WITH A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT MAY
SET UP ACROSS A PORTION OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE, AND COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK EMBEDDED VORTICITY MOVING
THROUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL WIND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, THEREFORE ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WOULD BE BRIEF. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EVENING HOURS, BUT DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE LOW-90S FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE PANHANDLES. IT SHOULD
BE A DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES, BUT THERE IS LESS THAN A
10% CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID-90S, WITH SOME
LOCALIZED LOCATIONS APPROACHING OR TOUCHING 100 DEGREES.
MOVING INTO THIS WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING PROMINENT OVER THE PANHANDLES.
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF WILL RETURN INTO THE AREA AND
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING BACK CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY FOCUSED ON THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FOR NOW, THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS
TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONTENT PRESENT.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THERE ARE SIGNS THAT AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAY BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, BUT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY CONTINUE TO SOME EXTENT.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY
12 KTS OR LESS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...36
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