398  
FXUS64 KAMA 270447  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
1047 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021  
   
AVIATION...06Z TAF
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS  
AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. LLWS MAY EXIST  
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FOR KGUY AND KDHT AROUND 09Z AND 13Z  
RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL BE AROUND THE TIME A LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS  
UP AND JUST BEFORE THE SURFACE WINDS START TO RAMP UP. SURFACE  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND THE 20 KT RANGE WITH GUST  
AROUND 30 KTS BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR,  
WITH MAYBE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  
 
HOFFEDITZ  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 518 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021/  
 
AVIATION...  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL  
BE LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH SOME VARIATION IN DIRECTION FROM ONE  
LOCATION TO ANOTHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE FIRST FEW  
HOURS OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY  
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP AROUND 16Z. BY  
16Z WINDS WILL BE APPROACHING SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS AS  
HIGH AS 30 KTS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAYBE PRESENT. OTHERWISE,  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  
 
HOFFEDITZ  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
 
BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE NOTED BY LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND  
BREEZY WIND SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON. TOMORROW'S CONDITIONS ARE  
LINING UP BETTER FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND THAT IS THE MAIN  
HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM REGARDING HAZARDS.  
 
SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AREA OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO  
WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSOLVING TONIGHT.  
THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO VEER TO THE  
NORTHWEST, EVENTUALLY BECOME VARIABLE AND--TO SOME DEGREE--WEAK  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS CONTINUES TOMORROW AND PUTS THE  
PANHANDLES UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL HELP  
INITIATE LEE CYCLOGENESIS, AND A SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER  
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD  
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE  
PREVIOUS DAY. IN FACT, MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR OR IN THE 70S FOR  
A HIGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NOT ONLY IS THE LOW STRONGER TOMORROW;  
ALLOWING FOR A BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET IS  
STRONGER. OVERALL, WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD STACKED JET OF WINDS  
OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD  
MIXING POTENTIAL, SO SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 20-30 MPH  
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH IN  
THE NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE OK PANHANDLE.  
RH VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT (SOME AREAS  
SLIGHTLY LOWER) FOR A GOOD PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS  
OF THE PANHANDLES. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC) VALUES ARE MUCH  
HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, ERC  
VALUES ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR FIRE  
STARTS TOMORROW. REGARDLESS, TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE STATE  
OF THE FUELS AND WEATHER TOMORROW WE ARE LOOKING AT CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
GUERRERO  
 
FIRE WEATHER (SATURDAY)...  
 
ERC VALUES WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR ON SATURDAY, BUT THEY HAVE  
TRENDED HIGHER--ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH--THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS  
DESPITE THE RECENT MOISTURE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20-30 MPH  
WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST  
AREA. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 9-15 FOR A MAJORITY OF THE  
AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE VARIABLES HAS RESULTED IN RFTI  
VALUES AROUND 3-5 FOR THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.  
AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST  
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.  
 
GUERRERO  
 
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...  
 
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY,  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL DROP BACK  
BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. H500 WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD  
OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION.  
 
LATEST 26/12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS NO REAL ACCORD  
BETWEEN MEMBERS REGARDING THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PANHANDLES ON  
MONDAY. A DEEPENING POSITIVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION  
SUNDAY NIGHT, OR IN SOME CASES SOME OUTPUT SHOWS A CLOSED H500 LOW  
THAT FORMS AND MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES LATE SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL DATA THEN BEGINS TO  
DIVERGE. CMC/NAM/NBM PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON  
MONDAY. CMC/NAM ARE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE AREA OF PRONOUNCED H700  
THETA-E ADVECTION NORTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES OUT AHEAD OF A  
NORTHEAST MOVING H500 LOW OVER UNION COUNTY, NM BY MONDAY  
AFTERNOON. COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH H850-700 IN  
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS AT OR BELOW ZERO. ALONG WITH WET-BULB ZERO  
TEMPS IN A MOIST COLUMN AS SEEN IN THE LATEST NAM CROSS SECTIONS,  
A MONDAY MORNING EVENT OF SNOWFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE  
PROFILES AND PROLONGED COLD AIR EXISTS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE +/- 0C WHERE  
IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS LIGHT, PRECIPITATION COULD START AS  
A WINTRY MIX AND SNOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW MID MONDAY  
MORNING WHICH COULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM, GFS/ECMWF DISPLAY AN OPEN  
WAVE AND/OR CLOSED LOW FURTHER EQUATORWARD DISPLACED ACROSS THE  
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF THE GEOGRAPHIC POSITIONING OF  
THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH A SMALLER DOMAIN OF INFLUENCE,  
MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF MOISTURE NOT ASSOCIATED WITHIN  
THE LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE PV AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD GO  
INTO EAST TEXAS INSTEAD. WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO TRANSITION  
ANY LIGHT SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE BACK INTO RAIN BEFORE  
ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF  
DEPARTING SYSTEM.  
 
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS BLEND OF DATA WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS MOST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES.  
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD START AS SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE  
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AND THEN ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX. FACTORS  
TO WATCH FOR THE SYSTEM ARE DEPTH OF THE COLD SUB 0C AIRMASS,  
DEPTH OF THE SFC BASED MOISTURE TO INFLUENCE SOME DIFFERENT WINTER  
PRECIPITATION TYPES, IF THE DRY AIR ALOFT SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER  
ATM TO RESULT IN LESS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO RIDGING IN THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND THE TRACKING OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ITSELF ARE  
ALL VARIABLES WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES  
AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AS OF NOW FOR MONDAY  
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 50S  
IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.  
 
ZONAL FLOW WITH SLIGHT H500 RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION  
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS  
AND MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY. WATCHING A POTENTIAL STRONG PERTURBATION OVER SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA WHICH COULD BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO  
THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF  
THE MAIN SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE  
AVERAGE.  
 
MECCARIELLO  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...  
HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...SHERMAN.  
 
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.  
 

 
 

 
 
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