359
FXUS64 KAMA 140535
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1235 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND
SOME OF THEM MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY ACROSS
THE EAST - MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO HEAT ILLNESSES,
ESPECIALLY AT PALO DURO CANYON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE MAIN AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY BUT THE LLTR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE PANHANDLES. H850
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 30S CELSIUS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD UPPER 90S TO JUST OVER 100 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AND WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING ACHIEVED, SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN. THIS TIME, SYNOPTIC SUPPORT LOOKS TO OCCUR
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
GIVEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS, DCAPE VALUES WILL BE VERY COMPARABLE
TO WHAT THEY WERE TODAY AND WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVING A
FASTER FORWARD PROGRESSION, IT MAY BE EASIER TO GET DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT FORM. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING. IN ADDITION TO
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT, ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
THE LLTR WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER DURING PEAK HEATING. A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PALO DURO CANYON DUE TO VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES ON THAT AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW,
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS
THE AXIS OF HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE OVER THE CWA. THE
WIND WILL BE LIGHT ON FRIDAY SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALMOST CERTAIN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A FAIRLY
QUIET WEATHER DAY IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY DUE TO LIGHT WIND AND DRY
CONDITIONS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM FORMING
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE OK PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING, BUT THE
HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE IN KS. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A MUCH MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY DUE TO POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A LOW LEVEL
JET REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY LEADING TO SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WIND OF 20-30 MPH. THE MAX GUST POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
HIGHER THAN 40-45 MPH SINCE THERE ARE NO MID LEVEL JET STREAKS
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE
IN LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STORM
CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY EVENING BUT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN, WHICH MAY NOT MAKE IT
IN TIME. IF ANY STORMS DO FORM, THEY COULD BE SEVERE.
REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG SOUTH LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS THE
TROUGH NOT DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A COLD FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND MAY
BE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES BY MONDAY EVENING. BREEZY TO GUSTY WIND
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ONCE
AGAIN. TIMING VARIES TREMENDOUSLY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE, WITH
SOME MODELS KEEPING THE FRONT IN KS AND OTHERS HAVING IT SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY THE EARLY EVENING. IF THE FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE AREA, THE
STORM THREAT WILL BE PRETTY MUCH GONE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT EACH OF
THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATER HALF OF THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE LIGHTNING AND SPORADIC, STRONG WIND GUSTS
NEAR THE TERMINALS. LLWS IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT AT
KAMA AND KGUY WITH THE WIND AT 1-2K FT AGL AROUND 40-45 KTS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SITES.
MUSCHA
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
ELEVATED TO VERY LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WIND AND WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE VERY LOW END CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT MAY ARISE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DUE TO INCREASED WIND AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS. THE SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ON THESE DAYS MAY BE UPWARDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. VERY HOT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO JUST
OVER 100.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ003>005-009-010-014-015-019-020.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ002-003.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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