853
FXUS64 KAMA 010552
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1252 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2023
..NEW AVIATION
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR HAIL, WIND, AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
* SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: THE LATEST H500 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NEVADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE,
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE WAVES WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION OF
THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS WILL ALLOW A DECENT AXIS OF POSITIVE THETA-E TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN NM AND WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN GENERATING A FEW
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
* MESOSCALE: AS OF 18Z, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE, VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ATTEMPTS AT A CUMULUS FIELD TRYING TO DEVELOP
OVER THIS AREA. THE FIRST RUN (17Z) OF THE WARN ON FORECAST
(WOFS) SUGGESTS THAT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON, LEAVING
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE CLEAR FROM
THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT WILL BE PRIMED FOR STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
MUCAPE VALUES COULD BE APPROACHING 2500 TO 2750 J/KG AND BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KTS COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND A LINE OF
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. BEFORE THIS
LINE APPROACHES, IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE OUT
AHEAD OF THE LINE, A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
LOW LEVEL SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER H850
WINDS MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 75
MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT A QUICK TORNADO
SPIN-UP ALONG THIS LINE AS THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES.
FORECAST PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN AROUND THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY MOIST PROFILE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH IS
LEADING TO A HIGH CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.
* THREATS: THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLASH FLOODING. THE LARGE HAIL
THREAT WILL BE THE HIGHEST WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST WHERE HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY STORMS DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUPERCELLS CAN
REMAIN DISCRETE ENOUGH CLOSER TO SUNSET ONCE THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THIS IS DUE TO
ALREADY VERY SATURATED SOILS AND THE ONGOING FLOOD CONCERNS OF
LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH
RAIN RATES UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
* TIMING & LOCATION: MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED STARTING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATE AFTERNOON TODAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
MUSCHA
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
SYNOPSIS: A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT, WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE BIGGER CONCERN TONIGHT
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING, AND THIS THREAT
WILL EXTEND INTO TOMORROW. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE AREA BECOMES
WORKED OVER AND POSSIBLY SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS WHICH WOULD LIMIT
THAT THREAT. MORE DETAILS FOR TODAY'S SEVERE/FLOOD THREAT WILL BE
LAID OUT IN THE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION. DETAILS ON TOMORROW'S THREAT
CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
DETAILS:
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVES
CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF AN H5 LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME BUT THE CENTER WON'T MOVE MUCH THROUGH
THE DAY LEADING TO CONTINUED MOIST RETURN FLOW AND BROAD LIFT IN
PROXIMITY TO A LEFT JET EXIT REGION. IF THE AREA CAN DESTABILIZE
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON (WHICH MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES BELIEVE WILL
OCCUR), THEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MAINLY FAVORING
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THE EXACT LOCATION OF STORM INITIATION
WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF A LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
DRYLINE. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOME INCREASED FLOW IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS (LOW TORNADO CHANCE DUE TO LACKING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR, BUT NOT OUT OF QUESTION). SHORTWAVE PASSAGE IN
THE EVENING (ALONG WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL JET) MAY UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO QLCS STRUCTURE ACROSS THE EAST, BUT AT THIS TIME IT
DOES'T LOOK LIKE STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALL NIGHT AS THE AREA GOES
INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE IMPULSE.
WARD
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023
SYNOPSIS: BOTTOM LINE IS THE PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH AS THE
BLOCKING PATTERN KEEPS RELOADING H5-H25 LOW PRESSURE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS KEEP A SUBTROPICAL JET
GOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALMOST DAILY SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL).
THUS, DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED AND THIS WILL
INCLUDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ESPECIALLY
FLOODING AS THE AREA LAKES, CREEKS, AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE.
FRIDAY WILL SEE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE THAT COULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN.
WARD
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2023
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HARD TO TIME
FOR THE TAF SITES, AS WILL ANY VSBY AND CIG ISSUES. THEREFORE,
THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
02
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 58 77 55 76 / 20 60 50 20
BEAVER OK 59 81 58 78 / 40 60 70 40
BOISE CITY OK 53 78 51 74 / 30 20 30 40
BORGER TX 60 81 58 80 / 20 50 50 20
BOYS RANCH TX 58 78 54 78 / 20 50 30 20
CANYON TX 57 77 53 77 / 10 70 50 30
CLARENDON TX 59 78 56 75 / 20 70 70 30
DALHART TX 54 76 51 75 / 20 30 30 30
GUYMON OK 56 79 55 77 / 30 30 50 30
HEREFORD TX 57 76 53 78 / 10 70 30 30
LIPSCOMB TX 59 80 57 78 / 30 60 80 40
PAMPA TX 58 78 56 77 / 20 60 70 30
SHAMROCK TX 60 80 58 78 / 30 70 80 30
WELLINGTON TX 61 81 59 78 / 40 70 80 40
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ001>003-006>008-
011>013-016>018-317.
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...02
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page