000
FXUS64 KAMA 051136
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
AVIATION
12Z ISSUANCE...SITES ARE VFR BUT MAY DROP IF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS REACH A SITE. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING OR LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INCLUDE IN TAF. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL RAMP UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO INCLUDE GUSTS OF
25-30KTS. WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK THIS EVENING AFTER 02Z.
BEAT
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022/
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE WITH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKING THE
BEST FOR SEEING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO
PARMER COUNTY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE COMPLEX TO HAVE WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. THUS, THE COMPLEX SHOULD DIE OFF AS IT ARRIVES INTO
THE PANHANDLES. THE STORMS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING PROVIDED MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT NOW LIE AROUND THE
AREA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW A TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN OK PANHANDLE DOWN SOUTHWEST TOWARD CLOVIS, NM.
WITH ALL THE BOUNDARIES AND TROUGH AXIS, STORMS FIRING UP THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE SEVERAL PLACES TO FORM. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SHORT RANGE MODELS THOUGH. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN WHERE
MODELS PLACE THE SURFACE LOW WILL AFFECT THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE MODELS PLACE THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WILL AFFECT WHERE UPWARD AND DOWNWARD MOTIONS WILL BE. HAVE
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES FOR TODAY AROUND 20-30 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. WEDNESDAY HAS SOME SIMILAR PRECIP CHANCES EXCEPT FOR LESS OF
THE AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS AGAIN HAVE VARIATIONS THAT WILL
BRING DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING LOCATIONS OF STORMS. BY
THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLES AND UPS THE
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE. BY THE WEEK'S END AND
THE WEEKEND, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND
SITS OVERHEAD, LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES. THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO SEE THE HIGH CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD, BRINGING
NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA AS STORMS COME OFF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW, STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVERS. WITH INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS, DCAPE WILL BE HIGH OVER THE WEEK AND BRING CHANCES OF
ISOLATED STRONG WINDS.
BEAT
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
16/16
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