819
FXUS64 KAMA 201055 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
555 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2019
AVIATION
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOW TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT GUY AND DHT
WITH SUNSET, BUT WINDS WILL STAY AROUND 20 KNOTS AT AMA WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2019/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY EASTER MORNING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE ROCKIES WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SO SURFACE WINDS WILL GET UP
INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SO THE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GREEN UP SHOULD HELP TO DETER
FIRE GROWTH.
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT ONCE IT
REACHES THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY MORNING. ONE PIECE OF IT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF IT DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THE
NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL PUT THE PANHANDLES IN THE NORTHEAST QUAD
OF THIS LOW WHICH WILL PUT US IN DIFFLUENCE A LOFT. A COUPLE OF
VORT MAXES WILL LIKELY MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LIFT FROM THE VORT MAXES, THE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING LIFTED OVER THE
COLD DOME OF AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ALL HELP TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM OR TWO COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT IF AN ELEVATED
STORM CAN SURVIVE THIS FAR NORTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT AT THIS TIME AS
THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED
CAPE.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
HEIGHTS WILL START TO RISE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME ZONAL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AND ANY STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
15/29
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