091
FXUS64 KAMA 091057
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
457 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST
AND SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN US, INCLUDING ONE THAT JUST MOVED PAST THE PANHANDLES.
ONE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL PRODUCE A FAIRLY
ROBUST SURFACE LOW, AROUND 990MB, WHICH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE FAR AWAY FROM THE
PANHANDLES, ITS IMPACTS WILL BE FELT; IT WILL DRAW IN SOME
ANOMALOUSLY WARM 850MB TEMPS, BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE,
AND CAUSE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH A SUNNY SKY, WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER-60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS OUR AREA. WINDS WILL
ACTUALLY BE TAME ESPECIALLY FOR OUR STANDARDS, AROUND 10-15 MPH,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR AN INCREDIBLY PLEASANT DECEMBER DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME POST-FRONTAL BREEZY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
THE RELATIVELY COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN ON WEDNESDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER
THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY, AND A SUBTLE PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP A LEE SURFACE LOW IN SE WYOMING/W NEBRASKA/NE COLORADO WHICH
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. A WARM AIRMASS
WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BUT WARMER AND CLOSER TO THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS PART OF DECEMBER. WIDESPREAD 70 DEGREE
HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED, AND THERE IS AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE FOR HIGHS
TO REACH OR EXCEED 75 DEGREES IN THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES, AND A 10-20% CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
STILL LARGELY SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT, WITH THE GFS/GEFS CAMP BRINGING THE FRONT IN EARLIER WHILE
THE ECMWF/EPS AND CANADIAN/GEPS BRINGS THE FRONT IN LATER. HOWEVER,
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THE GFS/GEFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE
FRONT ARRIVING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME BREEZY WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING
IF NOT EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN TO
THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WHILE THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES BE AROUND NORMAL TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL. STILL, THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN REMAIN EXTREMELY PITIFUL.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING NORTHERLY GUSTY WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COUPLE OF HOURS PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTS
PASSAGE THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AROUND 1000FT WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED AND SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY. THE SPEED IS NOT
EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE LEVEL OF LLWS. STILL, THIS WILL PRESENT A
CHALLENGE AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE START OF
THE GUSTY WINDS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...98
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