574
FXUS64 KAMA 061758
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1158 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- WINTER MAKES IT RETURN LATE ON THURSDAY AS A WINTER SYSTEM
BRINGS SNOW MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLES. THIS
WINTER SYSTEM HAS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN TO EASTERN
PANHANDLES.
- COOLER, NEAR AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING DRY AND CALM
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH TODAY AND MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH HERALDS THE APPROACH OF A WEATHER SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
APPROACH OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL STIR UP BREEZY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL BE COUPLED WITH MARGINALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LEAD TO PATCHY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. ANY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
END TOWARDS THE EVENING AS MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM. THE WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY
TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE IT ACTUALLY DRAWS IN. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
RESULTING RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TX PANHANDLE. THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST IN
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF THURSDAY. THIS WILL HAVE A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF FLARING
UP THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE
MORE DYNAMIC AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MOST LIKELY STAY
EASTWARD OF THE PANHANDLES SO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES ARE EXTREMELY LOW.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE FIRST WEATHER SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF RAPIDLY DEPARTING
EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF
THURSDAY. HOWEVER THE SOUTHER PLAINS WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF
FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE SCALE WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS
FAVORABLY SETS UP THE PANHANDLES FOR THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER
SMALL SCALE WEATHER SYSTEM LATE ON THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BEING COLD WHICH WILL MAKE IT A WINTER SYSTEM
THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO THE PANHANDLES. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS MOST LIKELY TO PASS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS OF
THURSDAY. THIS MAKES CONFIDENCE IN SNOW OVER WINTER MIX HIGHER
SINCE IT BETTER ALIGNS THE COLDER AIR WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TIMING. THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM FAVOR IT PASSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS MAKES
SNOWFALL MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES COMPARED TO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXACT PATH THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SO THE AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL MOST
LIKELY SHIFT SOME AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME TO WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL
OCCUR. THE SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY COME IN THE FORM OF A LARGER
SHIELD OF LIGHTER SNOW WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE TO EVEN
HEAVY SNOWFALL. AS FOR SNOWFALL THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNT IS 2 TO 4
INCHES IN THE NW PANHANDLES WHERE SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
HEAVIEST. FROM SW TO NE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES THE
SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY TO BE 0.1 TO 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL. IN THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER WHERE SNOWFALL IS LEAST LIKELY NONE TO
TRACE IS THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNT. ALL THAT BEING SAID THE NEWER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING EVER HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS AS
MOISTURE AMOUNTS RISE. SUCH A TREND INTRODUCES A LOW CHANCE THAT
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED 4 INCHES FOR THE HARDER HIT AREA. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, AND IT SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SO, THEN FUTURE
FORECAST WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW. THE WEATHER
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES BOTH AHEAD OF AND POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS
VERY IMPORTANT AS THE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
OCCURRING WHILE THE SNOWFALL IS ONGOING AMPLIFYING THE IMPACTS
FROM THE SNOWFALL. IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO THIS ALIGNMENT OF
WIND AND SNOW CAN LEAD TO BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING.
ALL IN ALL THIS WINTER SYSTEM MAY BRING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD AND
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE PANHANDLES FOR THIS WINTER.
THE WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM HAS A MODERATE CHANCE TO DEPART BY LATE
FRIDAY BRINGING AN END TO ANY FURTHER SNOWFALL. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT IT LINGER A LITTLE LONGER TO THE MID MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING. THIS WOULD SET UP THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND TO HAVE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
NEXT WORK WEEK THE PATTERN BECOME TOO UNCERTAIN TO MAKE A
CONFIDENT FORECAST. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A CHANCE THAT A WEATHER
SYSTEM BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE LARGE SCALE FLOW STALLING EITHER
IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT THEN BECOMES
THE QUESTION OF WHAT MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WOULD ACCUMULATE, WHEN
DOES IT GET PICKED BACK INTO THE BROAD SCALE FLOW, AND WHERE DOES
IT GO. ALL THESE QUESTIONS DO NOT HAVE EASY TO FIGURE OUT ANSWERS
SO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL SHIFT UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA OF
WHAT THOSE ANSWERS ARE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS COVER AND THICKNESS WILL BE SLOWLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE TAFS AS IT IS
CURRENTLY OUTSIDE THE TAF TIME RANGE.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98
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