588  
FXUS64 KAMA 260454  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
1054 PM CST SUN FEB 25 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST SUN FEB 25 2024  
 
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH SW WINDS AND  
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE MORE TAME  
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE  
EASTERN PANHANDLES HAS KEPT THE WINDS IN CHECK. THAT WILL CHANGE  
AS WE GO INTO TOMORROW.  
 
AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW, A STEADY DECLINE IN H500  
HEIGHTS WITH ATTACHED STEEP GRADIENTS AS OUR MAIN DISTURBANCE FROM  
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS. FURTHER ALOFT, THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL HAVE THE  
PANHANDLES UNDER AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE,  
AIDING DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL  
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS, LOW RH  
VALUES AND AVAILABLE FUELS. TIMING FOR THE MOST IMPACTFUL WINDS  
AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW WILL BE STARTING AROUND NOON  
THROUGH SUNSET TIMEFRAME TOMORROW. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR  
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS, AS THE SOURCE OF THESE WINDS ARE COMING  
EAST FROM NEW MEXICO, ONGOING DROUGHT IN THIS AREA COUPLED WITH  
THE STRONG WINDS COULD RESULTS IN PERIOD OF BLOWING DUST. WILL  
HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR SUDDEN DECREASE IN VISIBILITY  
ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW, HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS TOMORROW SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE  
80S, WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE AT ALL OF OUR CLIMATE SITES.  
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT, LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
MECCARIELLO  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST SUN FEB 25 2024  
 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH  
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES. RATE OF  
CHANGE IN HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD EXPEDITE ON TUESDAY AS THE MAIN  
H500 TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLES. OUT AHEAD, WARM  
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON  
TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. IF INCREASED CLOUD  
COVER, AND/OR THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE  
PANHANDLES SOONER, THIS COULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND  
WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH  
THIS TREND CLOSELY. AS THE MAIN TROUGH SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS, A BRIEF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER COULD BE POSSIBLE, BUT NOT  
LIKELY (<20% CHANCE). DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE  
REMAINDER ER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER HIGH  
DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT BY  
WEDNESDAY, WE WILL WARM UP BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THE  
WEEK.  
 
MECCARIELLO  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SUN FEB 25 2024  
 
TAFS CONTINUE AS VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE  
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A FEW UPDATES  
FOR THE NEW 06Z TIMEFRAME.  
 
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES,  
AND EVEN SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT IN THE LATE  
MORNING HOURS AT DHT. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE BETWEEN 25-30 KTS  
GUSTING ABOVE 45 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
NIGHT TIME HOURS, THOUGH AT SLIGHTLY REDUCED SPEEDS BEYOND 01Z.  
BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN FOR ALL SITES, BUT  
VISIBILITY STILL DOES NOT DROP BELOW VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.  
 
RANGEL  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE  
PANHANDLES TOMORROW AND TUESDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND  
13 TO 15 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. COUPLED WITH WESTERLY 20 FT WINDS  
SUSTAINED OF 30 TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED, MAX  
RFTI VALUES WILL TOP OFF AT 5 TO 6 TOMORROW AND 4 TO 5 ON TUESDAY.  
ERC PERCENTILE WILL BE AS HIGH AS THE 70-89TH PERCENTILE IN SOME  
LOCATIONS IN THE PANHANDLES, WITH ABUNDANT CURED FUELS EXPECTED.  
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY, WHICH IF ANY  
ACTIVE WILDFIRES ARE ONGOING, WIND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO  
NORTHERLY BEHIND COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY EVENING COULD BE AN ISSUE. RECENT  
HOT SPOTS IN THE PAST 24-48 HOURS IN MORE ELEVATED CONDITIONS  
WITH GIVEN FUELS HAS HEIGHTENED OUR CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW AND TUESDAY.  
 
MECCARIELLO  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMARILLO TX 49 83 55 75 / 0 0 0 0  
BEAVER OK 40 83 53 77 / 0 0 0 0  
BOISE CITY OK 43 76 48 69 / 0 0 0 0  
BORGER TX 49 86 56 79 / 0 0 0 0  
BOYS RANCH TX 44 83 52 76 / 0 0 0 0  
CANYON TX 47 83 54 76 / 0 0 0 0  
CLARENDON TX 51 86 59 79 / 0 0 0 0  
DALHART TX 40 79 48 70 / 0 0 0 0  
GUYMON OK 41 81 51 74 / 0 0 0 0  
HEREFORD TX 46 83 53 75 / 0 0 0 0  
LIPSCOMB TX 43 85 56 79 / 0 0 0 0  
PAMPA TX 50 83 56 77 / 0 0 0 0  
SHAMROCK TX 48 88 58 82 / 0 0 0 0  
WELLINGTON TX 48 88 58 82 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  
FOR TXZ001>020-317.  
 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING  
FOR TXZ001>020-317.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR  
TXZ001-002-006-007-011>013-016>018-317.  
 
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING  
FOR OKZ001>003.  
 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING  
FOR OKZ001>003.  
 
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR  
OKZ001.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...29  
LONG TERM....29  
AVIATION...55  
 
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