041
FXUS64 KAMA 230624
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
124 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.
-THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH A SEVERE POTENTIAL, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
-THE COMING WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE HOT WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES SAT THROUGH MON.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS BETWEEN A LOW
PRESSURE WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND A HIGH PRESSURE WEATHER
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW
THAT IS SLOWLY BECOMING A WEST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
THIS IN TURN ALLOWS FOR SMALL SCALE WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH
THAT FLOW TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES EACH DAY.
THIS MORNING THE LOW LEVEL JET IS BRINGING IN LOW MOISTURE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES THAT IS LEADING TO THE CLOUDY SKIES. NORMALLY
A CLOUDY NIGHT WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF MORE STABLE CONDITIONS BUT
THAT IS NOT THE CASE FOR TODAY. FOR ABOVE THIS CLOUD LAYER
CONDITIONS ARE VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG WITH
SHEAR OF 20 TO 40 KT. WHAT IS LAKING IS A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO
START THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN FULLY UTILIZE THIS ENVIRONMENT. SO
THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING WITH CALM WEATHER. THIS
CHANGES COME THE MID MORNING AS WE HAVE A SMALL SCALE WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT IS LIKELY TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
OF SPARKING OFF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHEN IT PASSES
THROUGH. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT AS UNSTABLE AS IT IS THERE IS A
FURTHER LOW CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. FURTHER
MORE THE MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO POOL ALONG THIS SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR
THE STORMS TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THIS INTRODUCES A LOW
CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AREAS THAT SEE MORE THAN ONE STORMS AS IT IS
UNLIKELY FOR ANY SINGLE STORM TO HAVE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING BY ITSELF. THE STORM MOTION WILL MOST LIKELY
BE TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE STORMS EITHER DEPARTING OR CEASING BY
THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
THE BANK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY DISSIPATE BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE HEATING TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE DAY INCREASING THE UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN ALL THAT IS NEEDED IS A TRIGGER MECHANISM
TO GET THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE FIRST PLACE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE PANHANDLES TO GET THIS FORCING IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EITHER THE SETTING UP OF A WEAK DRY LINE OR THROUGH
OUTFLOWS FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION. THE DRYLINE WOULD
MATERIALIZE FROM A PUSH OF DRIER AIR CARRIED IN BY BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THESE ARE MOST LIKELY TO SET UP IN THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
PANHANDLES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUCH THAT 3000 TO 5000 J/KG OF CAPE
AND WITH 20 TO 40 KT OF SHEAR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS THAT CAN TURN INTO SUPERCELL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. IF THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
FORMED IT WOULD LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. STILL THIS
ROUND IS THE LEAST CERTAIN AS THE TRIGGER MECHANISM HAVE TO SETUP
AND ENOUGH MOISTURE THEN HAS TO CONCENTRATE UPON THEM TO GET THE
STORMS GOING. THE SAFER BET REMAIN NO THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
AFTERNOON, IT JUST IF THEY OCCUR THEY CAN BE POWERFUL. A FURTHER
CONSEQUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY IS THAT
IT WILL BRING IN HOTTER AIR THAT WILL CAUSE THE HIGHS TO CREEP
BACK INTO THE 100S FOR THE HOTTER AREAS.
IT IS MORE LIKELY FOR STORMS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SMALL SCALE WEATHER SYSTEM. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FORCING NEEDED TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO
HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH WITH A MORE
MODEST 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH SHEAR OF 20 TO 40 KT. THIS
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
STORMS EITHER DEPART OF DISSIPATE. THIS WILL THEN MOST LIKELY
LEAVE CALMER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THE
REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. IT WONT
BE UNTIL THE EVENING THAT ANOTHER SMALL SCALE WEATHER SYSTEM
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BRINGING IN THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW MEXICO DURING ITS PASSAGE. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS SUCH THAT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS
TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE PANHANDLES HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF REMAINING
UNDER A WEST TO EAST FLOW INBETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH AND A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.
INITIALLY THIS WILL MOST LIKELY ALLOW FOR FURTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS
TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING FURTHER RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE FEED WILL LIKELY BE DEGRADING
DURING THIS TIME WHICH WILL CAUSE A GRADUALLY DOWNTREND IN THE
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THEN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW PRESSURE
SEEM LIKELY TO REPOSITION. THIS WOULD SEE THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
IN STRENGTH AND MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. WHILE THIS
HAPPENS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND REMAIN MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE PANHANDLES. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WOULD BRING DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS TO THE
PANHANDLES FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALREADY HINTS THAT THIS SETUP
WONT LAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST INCREASING THE
CHANCES THAT COOLER AND STORMIER WEATHER RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES
DURING NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LAST UNTIL A BANK OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR TO EVEN IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
THE CLOUDS LIFT AND SCATTER OUT DURING THE LATER MORNING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED TO PASS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THESE HAVE BETTER CHANCES
OF IMPACTING KGUY AND THUS ARE REFLECTED IN THIS TAF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN IMPACT THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH KAMA AND KGUY HAVING THEM REFLECTED WITHIN THE TAFS. KDHT HAS
A LESSER CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SO NONE ARE CURRENTLY
REFLECTED WITHIN THE TAF. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR EITHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. OF THE TWO ROUNDS THE AFTERNOON
ROUND WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE THE MORE POWERFUL STORMS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98
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