853  
FXUS64 KAMA 010552  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
1252 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2023  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR HAIL, WIND, AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR  
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...  
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023  
 
* SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: THE LATEST H500 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A UPPER  
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY  
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NEVADA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS  
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST  
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE,  
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PROPAGATE  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH  
THESE WAVES WILL GENERATE NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION OF  
THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID  
LEVELS WILL ALLOW A DECENT AXIS OF POSITIVE THETA-E TO MOVE  
ACROSS EASTERN NM AND WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN GENERATING A FEW  
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
* MESOSCALE: AS OF 18Z, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE  
EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE, VISIBLE SATELLITE  
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ATTEMPTS AT A CUMULUS FIELD TRYING TO DEVELOP  
OVER THIS AREA. THE FIRST RUN (17Z) OF THE WARN ON FORECAST  
(WOFS) SUGGESTS THAT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS  
THE NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON, LEAVING  
THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE CLEAR FROM  
THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP  
ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT  
THAT WILL BE PRIMED FOR STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.  
MUCAPE VALUES COULD BE APPROACHING 2500 TO 2750 J/KG AND BULK  
SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KTS COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO  
SEVERE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE  
APPROACHING THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND A LINE OF  
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. BEFORE THIS  
LINE APPROACHES, IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE OUT  
AHEAD OF THE LINE, A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE AS  
LOW LEVEL SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER H850  
WINDS MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE  
AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 75  
MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT A QUICK TORNADO  
SPIN-UP ALONG THIS LINE AS THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES.  
FORECAST PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN AROUND THE  
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE AND FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY MOIST PROFILE THIS EVENING  
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH IS  
LEADING TO A HIGH CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF  
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.  
 
* THREATS: THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE LARGE  
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLASH FLOODING. THE LARGE HAIL  
THREAT WILL BE THE HIGHEST WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DURING  
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST WHERE HAIL  
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY STORMS DEVELOP  
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE  
POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE TEXAS AND  
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW, BUT  
CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY IF ANY SUPERCELLS CAN  
REMAIN DISCRETE ENOUGH CLOSER TO SUNSET ONCE THE STRONGER LOW  
LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THE SHOWERS  
AND STORMS WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THIS IS DUE TO  
ALREADY VERY SATURATED SOILS AND THE ONGOING FLOOD CONCERNS OF  
LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH  
RAIN RATES UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE STRONGEST  
STORMS.  
 
* TIMING & LOCATION: MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED STARTING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH  
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM  
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES DURING THE MIDDLE TO  
LATE AFTERNOON TODAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED  
TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS  
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
THURSDAY MORNING, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE  
AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN  
POSSIBLE.  
 
MUSCHA  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023  
 
SYNOPSIS: A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED STARTING THIS  
AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME  
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT, WITH LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE BIGGER CONCERN TONIGHT  
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING, AND THIS THREAT  
WILL EXTEND INTO TOMORROW. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS  
POSSIBLE TOMORROW, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE AREA BECOMES  
WORKED OVER AND POSSIBLY SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS WHICH WOULD LIMIT  
THAT THREAT. MORE DETAILS FOR TODAY'S SEVERE/FLOOD THREAT WILL BE  
LAID OUT IN THE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION. DETAILS ON TOMORROW'S THREAT  
CAN BE FOUND BELOW.  
 
DETAILS:  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVES  
CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF AN H5 LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.  
THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME BUT THE CENTER WON'T MOVE MUCH THROUGH  
THE DAY LEADING TO CONTINUED MOIST RETURN FLOW AND BROAD LIFT IN  
PROXIMITY TO A LEFT JET EXIT REGION. IF THE AREA CAN DESTABILIZE  
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON (WHICH MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES BELIEVE WILL  
OCCUR), THEN THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MAINLY FAVORING  
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. THE EXACT LOCATION OF STORM INITIATION  
WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF A LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND  
DRYLINE. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOME INCREASED FLOW IN THE MID AND  
UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT  
RANGE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH A RISK FOR  
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS (LOW TORNADO CHANCE DUE TO LACKING  
LOW LEVEL SHEAR, BUT NOT OUT OF QUESTION). SHORTWAVE PASSAGE IN  
THE EVENING (ALONG WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL JET) MAY UPSCALE  
GROWTH INTO QLCS STRUCTURE ACROSS THE EAST, BUT AT THIS TIME IT  
DOES'T LOOK LIKE STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALL NIGHT AS THE AREA GOES  
INTO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE IMPULSE.  
 
WARD  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2023  
 
SYNOPSIS: BOTTOM LINE IS THE PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH AS THE  
BLOCKING PATTERN KEEPS RELOADING H5-H25 LOW PRESSURE OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS KEEP A SUBTROPICAL JET  
GOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALMOST DAILY SHORTWAVE  
DISTURBANCES WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL).  
THUS, DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED AND THIS WILL  
INCLUDE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ESPECIALLY  
FLOODING AS THE AREA LAKES, CREEKS, AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE.  
FRIDAY WILL SEE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE THAT COULD RESULT  
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN.  
 
WARD  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU JUN 1 2023  
 
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  
THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HARD TO TIME  
FOR THE TAF SITES, AS WILL ANY VSBY AND CIG ISSUES. THEREFORE,  
THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.  
 
02  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMARILLO TX 58 77 55 76 / 20 60 50 20  
BEAVER OK 59 81 58 78 / 40 60 70 40  
BOISE CITY OK 53 78 51 74 / 30 20 30 40  
BORGER TX 60 81 58 80 / 20 50 50 20  
BOYS RANCH TX 58 78 54 78 / 20 50 30 20  
CANYON TX 57 77 53 77 / 10 70 50 30  
CLARENDON TX 59 78 56 75 / 20 70 70 30  
DALHART TX 54 76 51 75 / 20 30 30 30  
GUYMON OK 56 79 55 77 / 30 30 50 30  
HEREFORD TX 57 76 53 78 / 10 70 30 30  
LIPSCOMB TX 59 80 57 78 / 30 60 80 40  
PAMPA TX 58 78 56 77 / 20 60 70 30  
SHAMROCK TX 60 80 58 78 / 30 70 80 30  
WELLINGTON TX 61 81 59 78 / 40 70 80 40  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ001>003-006>008-  
011>013-016>018-317.  
 
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ001-002.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...05  
LONG TERM....07  
AVIATION...02  
 
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