651
FXUS64 KAMA 211101
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
501 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLES.
- WILL BE WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME (THE 24TH AND
THE 26TH-27TH). THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS VERY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE PATTERN WITH SOME MORE
OF THE SAME OLD, SAME OLD. ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOWER 60S IN THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FA TO
MAYBE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST. THE NORTHEAST IS LOOKING TO STAY
ON THE COOLER SIDE AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE AREA
TODAY KEEPS SOME UPSLOPING WINDS IN THE NE FA THROUGH THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS.
TOMORROW, THE FA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND
H85 TEMPERATURES NEARING 18 DEGREES C. WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE, A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FA IS LIKELY TO SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S WITH MAYBE A FEW SPOTS, LIKE PDC HIT THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
36
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
DURING THE LONG TERM, CONDITIONS COOL OFF A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S WITH MAYBE THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE
REACHING LOWER 60S ON CHRISTMAS DAY. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE WEEK.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE OF THEM BRINGING IMPACTFUL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH A LEESIDE LOW AND
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE LEESIDE LOW IS SET TO BRING IN SOME
LOW LEVEL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE, AT THE SAME TIME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE. THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ON MONDAY, ALONG WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL POTENTIALLY
KEEP TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT NORMAL, AROUND 50 FOR AMARILLO.
HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST POTENTIALLY COOLER DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY FOR MONDAY, SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING DUE TO THE INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE.
EARLY TUESDAY, SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA (GFS IN THE NORTH, EC IN THE EAST).
HOWEVER, OVERALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE FA WILL STAY
RELATIVELY DRY FROM ANY SHOWERS. THEREFORE, HAVE STAYED WITH NBM
POPS THAT REMAIN BELOW 10 AT THIS TIME. SOME MENTION OF DRIZZLE
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
EAST.
A SHORT LIVED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT LONG ENOUGH TO
BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY ON WED. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED THU. HOWEVER, IT IS UNCLEAR ABOUT THE EXACT PATH THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL TAKE. AT THIS TIME THE LOW MAY COME ACROSS
SUCH THAT MUCH OF THE FA GETS DRY SLOTTED. THERE MAY NOT EVEN BE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THIS SYSTEM COMES ACROSS WITH ONLY
A DAY IN BETWEEN THE FIRST SYSTEM ON TUE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE
NBM POPS WHICH ARE 15 TO 20 MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO OF
THE FA. THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FA HAS THE BETTER CHANCES RIGHT
NOW TO SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS UPPER LOW THAT MAY
BE CLOSED OFF AS IT COMES ACROSS. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
OCCUR IS LIKELY TO JUST FALL AS RAIN AND IS LIKELY TO BE ONLY A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN TOTAL. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR THU WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S. MID TO UPPER 50S, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FA MAY RETURN ON FRI
AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA.
36
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH WINDS PREDOMINATELY
MAINTAINING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
THAT ARE 10 KTS OR LESS.
36
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 59 32 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 50 27 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 62 29 68 31 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 59 32 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 61 29 66 30 / 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 59 30 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 56 31 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 62 26 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 57 27 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 62 31 70 32 / 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 53 30 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 56 32 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 54 29 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 55 29 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36
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