333  
FXUS64 KAMA 231134  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
634 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025  
 
-A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.  
 
-THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK.  
 
-REPEAT ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN  
FLOODING CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.  
 
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025  
 
LATEST 07Z OBSERVATIONS SHOWS LINGERING SHOWERS FROM CONVECTION  
LAST EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. ABUNDANT  
SURFACE MOISTURE IS ALSO IN PLACE WITH TD VALUES IN THE LOWER TO  
MID 60S. THIS LL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL SET THE STAGES FOR  
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING WITHIN THE MONSOON PATTERN SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOWS THE MAIN  
H500 DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, ALONG  
WITH A BROAD H500 HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN  
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. THE PANHANDLES WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
PLACED IN THE MOST PRONOUNCED H850-500 MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME  
IN-BETWEEN THE TWO SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, ALONG  
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL  
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE A FOCAL POINT OF THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE  
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS, BEFORE LIMITED 0-6 KM SHEAR  
WILL RESULT IN MORE LINEAR CONVECTION DOMINATED BY FORWARD  
PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD POOLS. SECONDARY SOURCE FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPMENT FROM MONSOON PATTERN ACROSS NM  
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THUNDERSTORMS  
TODAY COULD BE SEVERE AND THOSE STORMS WILL HAVE A PRIMARY THREAT  
OF DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS WITH SECONDARY THREAT BEING HAIL UP TO 1"  
IN DIAMETER. ALONG WITH WIND AND HAIL, FLOODING MAY ALSO BE AN  
ISSUE TO WATCH CLOSELY. MRMS ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS  
HAS SOME AREAS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE WITH 1-3"  
OF RAIN. MORE RAIN IN THESE AREAS IN PARTICULAR WILL ENHANCE  
FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE WESTERN PANHANDLES OVERALL WILL HAVE THE  
HIGHEST CHANCES (UP TO 30% CHANCE) OF FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY  
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION  
MAY LINGER INTO PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE  
DISSIPATING.  
 
MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, FAVORING THE  
WESTERN PANHANDLES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WHERE SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FEATURE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN  
THE NW PANHANDLES TO LOWER AND MID 90S FOR THE EASTERN COMBINED  
PANHANDLES.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025  
 
GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND,  
THE H500 TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND H500 HIGH IN THE EASTERN  
CONUS WILL BOTH GRADUALLY COMPRESS INTO A ZONAL FLOW. LATEST  
23/00Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SUBTLE  
PERTURBATIONS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, COUPLED WITH  
DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS STILL ABUNDANT ACROSS THE FOUR  
CORNERS REGION, THIS SHOULD STILL GIVE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND  
NORTHERN PANHANDLES THE BEST CHANCE OF A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER  
OR THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST  
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF  
SITES. PROB30 FOR ALL TAF SITES ROUGHLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z  
TUESDAY FOR TSRA CONDITIONS ARE ADDED AND WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM,  
ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE  
SOUTH AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.  
 
 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...29  
LONG TERM....29  
AVIATION...29  
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