384  
FXUS64 KAMA 071851  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
151 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
   
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
 
 
CURRENT 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER  
THE SW CONUS WITH WEAK NE FLOW OVER THE FA. A SHORTWAVE  
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH PATTERN THAT IS  
SWINGING ACROSS THE NW CONUS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING  
WESTERLIES ALOFT AND BE A DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR STORMS OFF THE  
NM/CO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WEST NORTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL  
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OFF THE BASE OF TROUGH PATTERN PIVOTING WITH  
AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW IN CANADA. AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE  
IS PRESENT BOTH TODAY IN THE W FA AND TOMORROW IN THE E FA IN  
CONCORDANCE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  
 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE INCREASED TODAY IN THE W THIRD OF THE  
OK/TX PANHANDLES. DEWPOINTS ARE SITTING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER  
60S WITH AN AXIS OF 700MB THETA-E SETTING UP ALONG THE NM/TX  
BORDER. MUCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AROUND THE TIME STORMS ENTER  
THE FA, WHICH MAY BE THE DRIVING FACTOR TO HELP KEEP STORMS  
CONTINUING A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL ENTER THE  
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES BETWEEN 5-7 PM. ALL  
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CREATE A  
POTENTIALLY STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH GUSTY WINDS. DCAPE VALUES  
ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG, SO AS STORMS COLLAPSE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR  
A SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR TWO TO COME OUT OF THE STORMS. STORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH TO POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS  
AROUND 10-11 PM.  
 
TOMORROW THE CHANCE FOR STORMS RETURN IN THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES  
FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS IN THE EVENING. ANOTHER AXIS OF 700MB THETA-E  
IS PRESENT ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A  
POTENTIALLY WEAK DRYLINE SETUP. THE NAM3K IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE  
WITH INITIATING STORMS IN THE EAST, BUT THE NBM ALSO HAS BEEN  
TRENDING POPS HIGHER INTO THE 20S AND 30S. THE INSTABILITY EXISTS  
WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2000 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS.  
IF THE NAM PLAYS OUT AND KEEPS THE BETTER MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN  
PANHANDLES FOR STORMS TO INITIATE, THEN THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE  
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE CONTINUING THE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS  
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY DUE EAST SOUTHEAST  
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. TOMORROW WINDS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FROM THE  
SOUTH WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 107 RANGE.  
HOWEVER, IF WINDS TOMORROW TEND TO TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEAST  
DIRECTION FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY THEN THAT MAY BE WHAT KEEPS  
TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER.  
 
RUTT  
 

 
   
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
 
 
UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES  
THURSDAY OF 590 TO 593 DAM WILL SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST  
FRIDAY AND DEEPEN TO AROUND 597 TO 600 DAM FRIDAY. FURTHER  
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER HIGH EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH 598  
TO 600 DAM BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK  
AROUND 594 TO 598 DAM. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN  
PANHANDLES BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD  
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
EARLY SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER SATURDAY, BUT WILL BE  
IN THE 101 TO 110 THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AROUND  
110 TO 112 IN THE PALO DURO CANYON. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY  
IN THE UPPER 90S AND AROUND 100 TO AROUND 110 TO 111 IN PALO DURO  
CANYON. WILL LIKELY BE NEEDING A HEAT ADVISORY OR EXCESSIVE HEAT  
WARNING BETWEEN THURSDAY AND MONDAY.  
 
SCHNEIDER  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
 
 
DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY VALUES OF AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT, RFTIS OF AROUND 1 TO 2  
WILL BE POSSIBLE. COULD POSSIBLY HAVE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER 20 FOOT SOUTH  
AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL MITIGATE THE THREAT  
AND WILL BE MAINLY RELATIVE HUMIDITY-DRIVEN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.  
 
SCHNEIDER  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMARILLO TX 68 101 73 104 72 / 10 5 5 5 10  
BEAVER OK 69 102 72 104 69 / 5 10 20 5 10  
BOISE CITY OK 65 102 66 101 65 / 30 0 5 0 5  
BORGER TX 72 106 77 109 74 / 10 5 10 5 5  
BOYS RANCH TX 69 106 73 107 72 / 20 0 5 5 5  
CANYON TX 67 101 72 104 72 / 5 5 10 5 5  
CLARENDON TX 69 99 75 103 74 / 5 5 5 5 5  
DALHART TX 65 103 67 102 66 / 30 0 5 0 5  
GUYMON OK 68 104 69 104 68 / 10 0 5 0 5  
HEREFORD TX 68 102 72 105 72 / 10 5 5 5 10  
LIPSCOMB TX 70 101 75 105 72 / 5 10 20 5 10  
PAMPA TX 69 101 74 104 72 / 5 10 10 5 10  
SHAMROCK TX 69 98 74 103 73 / 0 0 5 5 5  
WELLINGTON TX 70 101 75 105 74 / 0 0 5 0 5  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
23/11  
 
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