042  
FXUS64 KAMA 231104  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
604 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
12Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL  
CLOUDINESS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST  
WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH  
GUSTS NEAR 30 TO 35 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TO 17Z TODAY. WINDS WILL  
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 00Z TO 02Z SUNDAY.  
 
SCHNEIDER  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021/  
 
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...  
 
ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PANHANDLES FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
U.S. ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL  
TRACK EAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WITH A DRY  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY  
NIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EARLY THIS  
EVENING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE EASTERN  
AND SOUTHEASTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. BEST CHANCES WILL  
BE AROUND 23Z TODAY AND 00Z SUNDAY UNTIL 02Z AND 04Z SUNDAY.  
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLES BY 04Z TO  
06Z SUNDAY.  
 
LOW LEVEL 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET THIS MORNING 40 TO 50 KNOTS  
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AFTER THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS.  
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE  
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL  
850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET OF 40 TO 40 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN  
TONIGHT BY 03Z TO 06Z SUNDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL BETWEEN 09Z AND  
12Z SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND  
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL DEEPEN TODAY WITH A EAST TO WEST  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM KANSAS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE  
SURFACE LOW. SURFACE TROUGH OR PSEUDO-DRYLINE WILL MIX EAST  
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BY 00Z SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN  
MOVING EAST TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH  
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS  
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH SUNDAY. SURFACE  
RIDGE TO BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
ALLOW FOR COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
SCHNEIDER  
 
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...  
 
ELEVATED TO LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
TODAY ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN TEXAS  
PANHANDLES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGH END ELEVATED OR LOW END  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND  
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES. MAX RFTIS OF 1 TO 3 AND 2 TO 4 ARE  
FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THIS AREA. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 12 TO 15  
PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH 20 FOOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS  
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH FROM MID TO LATE  
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ERC PERCENTILES WILL BE IN  
THE 70TH TO 89TH RANGE. WILL GO WITH FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE  
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OR ALL OF THE NORTHERN AND  
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM 12 PM UNTIL 7 PM TODAY. WILL  
HOLD OFF ON A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME AS CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE ONLY MET FOR ABOUT 1 OR 2 HOURS  
AND NOT 3 HOURS.  
 
SCHNEIDER  
 
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE EAST WITH FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
MONDAY STARTS OFF WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS  
WITH TROUGHING ON EITHER SIDE. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY FLOW  
RETURNS QUICKLY AFTER SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR  
GOOD WAA TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TUESDAY WILL  
SEE THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFT EASTWARD WITH WARMING FROM A LEE SIDE  
LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN  
REGION AND TAKES AIM FOR THE PANHANDLES. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE  
LOW TRACKS, PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP. THE  
DETERMINISTIC GFS TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO DRY SLOT THE CWA.  
HOWEVER, SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS TRACK THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND LINE  
UP WITH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND MOST ECMWF MEMBERS WHERE AT  
LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE AREA GETS PRECIP. THE MOST FAVORED AREA  
IS THE EAST, BUT THERE ARE SOME MEMBERS THAT INDICATE WE COULD SEE  
WRAP AROUND PRECIP IN THE NORTH AS WELL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
INDICATE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE EAST FOR SOME  
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SRH FORECASTS LOOK DECENT, BUT  
LCLS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN ONE WOULD GENERALLY LIKE FOR TORNADO  
POTENTIAL, SO PERHAPS MORE UNLIKELY THAN LIKELY IN THAT ASPECT.  
THIS WILL NEED CLOSE MONITORING FOR TRACK TO DETERMINE SEVERE  
POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE, IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES, FIRE WEATHER WILL  
BE A CONCERN WITH ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY LOW END CRITICAL CONDITIONS  
POSSIBLE.  
 
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED, BUT IT WILL BE  
SHORT LIVED WARMTH AS A COLD FRONT COMES IN AS THE SURFACE LOW  
EXITS THE AREA. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING TAKES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  
 
BEAT  
 
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.  
RH IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 17 PERCENT IN THE WEST AND UP TO 30  
PERCENT IN THE EAST. RFTI VALUES WILL BE 0 IN THE EAST AND  
INCREASE TO SOME SPOTTY 3S IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE  
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. A  
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TURN  
WINDS NORTHERLY. ERC VALUES ARE IN THE 50TH TO 75TH GENERALLY WITH  
A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN OK PANHANDLE REACHING THE 80TH PERCENTILE.  
THE EXTENT OF AREA THAT SEES FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE  
RELIANT ON WHERE THE LOW TRACKS TUESDAY. IF IT GOES FURTHER NORTH  
AND WE DON'T RECEIVE PRECIPITATION, MORE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF IT TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH, MORE OVERHEAD,  
AND WE RECEIVE STORMS IN THE EAST, THEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
WOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WEST.  
 
BEAT  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
11/16  
 
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