899
FXUS64 KAMA 022331
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
531 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
-THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
-WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
A BIT BREEZY FOR PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AS
SFC-H500 HEIGHTS STEEPEN WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH SW WINDS HAVE
IT A BIT BREEZY, TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 18Z OBS ARE WELL INTO THE
50S FOR MANY LOCATIONS, MUCH WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES
TO UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A H500 POSITIVE TILTED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE SE INTO THE
EASTERN NM PLAINS BY TOMORROW NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES, WE WILL SEE AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. COULD START AS BRIEF
RAIN/SNOW MIX, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW. THE MORE
COMPLEX ASPECTS TO THE FORECAST WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD TOMORROW NIGHT. LATEST 12-18Z HI-RES AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY, ALMOST MOVING EAST ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR
DUE TO A DEEPER ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS STEERING THIS
SECOND TROUGH IN NM MORE DUE EASTERLY. AS A RESULT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIFT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM COULD
FAVOR MORE OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MOISTURE DEPTH, ALONG WITH
TRACK OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL FACTOR TO SEE HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL THE AREA RECEIVES. LOCALIZED MAXIMA IN SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
ALSO DEPEND ON MESOSCALE BANDING THAT CAN SET UP, IF THE
APPROPRIATE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. NAM/ECMWF ISENTROPIC 295-300K
LIFT SHOWS ADEQUATE MIXING RATIO VALUES ADVECT NORTH INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS BY TOMORROW NIGHT. AIDED BY
ANY NOTABLE SFC CONVERGENCE ZONES IN PLACE, WE COULD SEE SMALL
BANDS OF SNOW TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO
(90-95TH PERCENTILE, OR LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OCCURRENCE), WE MAY
SEE A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WHERE SNOWFALL RATES 0.5"/HR
COULD OCCUR DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SO OUT OF ALL OF
THIS, WHAT SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE WE EXPECTING TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY? AS OF THE LATEST FORECAST, A TRACE OF SNOW AS
FAR EAST AS THE US 83 CORRIDOR, TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR
AREAS WEST TO THE NM STATE LINE, INCLUDING AMARILLO. PERHAPS AN
INCH OF TWO OF SNOW FOR THE FAR NW PANHANDLES, NEAR THE BEST AREAS
OF LIFT. PROBABILITIES DROP OFF UNDER 5% FOR ANY SNOWFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING 3". THE HIGHEST TOTALS MAY COME FROM ANY PROLONGED
SMALL BANDS OF SNOW THAT FORMS, AND AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE WOULD BE IN THE WESTERN AND/OR CENTRAL
TX PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN H500 TROUGH. IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SNOW, HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY DECEMBER. DRY CONDITIONS WITH UL SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MOSTLY DRY, WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
AS OF THIS EVENING A UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS SLOWLY MOVING IN
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT FOR TOMORROW. THIS CLOUD DECK IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS ASIDE FROM
SOME FEW TO SCATTER VFR LEVEL CLOUDS. INSTEAD, IMPACTS TO THE
TERMINALS WILL BE SEEN AS THE FRONT ARRIVES WITH KGUY THE LIKELY
FIRST TERMINALS TO DROP TO MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. OF COURSE THE BIGGER CONCERN IS STILL FOCUSED ON THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINALS WITH
PRESENT CAMS HAVING A START TIME AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS SEEING DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW AT THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, LATEST
CAMS HAVE SUGGESTED A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL COULD SET UP
BETWEEN KDHT AND KAMA THAT COULD LEAD TO MUCH WORSE CONDITIONS.
FOR NOW HAVE LEFT MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF PRESENT PACKAGE TILL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ON THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...11
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