554
FXUS64 KAMA 231121
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
621 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. MONITORING FOR A POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT AS WELL.
(AT LEAST A 15% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT - MAINLY ON SUNDAY)
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
CURRENTLY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ORIENTED
ALONG THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CA/NV STATE LINE. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS TROUGH HAS CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FAR EASTERN AZ INTO NM. THIS CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUITE SLOWLY AND STAY IN NM OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. TODAY AND TONIGHT, MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES
WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WHILE THE FAR WESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTRODUCED TONIGHT.
THE FAR WESTERN STACK OF COUNTIES IN THE FA IS EXPECTED TO HANG ON
TO POPS FOR SOME TIME OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLES FINALLY GAINING THEIR CHANCES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
EVEN WITH THE RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO SHOW UP FOR A WHILE FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. SOME AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK AND IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES MAY STILL SEE A HIGH AROUND 80 TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SATURDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO GET
HELD BACK IN THE 60S IN THE WEST AND 70S IN THE EAST. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE
AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WITH THE SLOWNESS OF THIS
SYSTEM THE MAIN CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF THE DALHART BOISE CITY LINE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SUNDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE RAIN FOR THE
COMBINED OK/TX PANHANDLES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IN THE
SHORT TERM CYCLES THROUGH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DISAPPOINTMENT TO AMOUNTS
ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. BY
SUNDAY, POPS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES BUMP
UP IN THE 70-90% RANGE WITH THE EASTERN PANHANDLES GAINING A
30-70% CHANCE FOR RAIN. SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN IN THE
SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME FOR THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PANHANDLES. FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLES, SOME OF THE HIGHEST POPS EXIST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, BY THIS TIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE LOWER RAIN RATES AND BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN WHAT THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL SEE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT. BY MON NIGHT NEGATIVE H7 THETA-E ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES SHUTTING DOWN THE RAIN FOR THIS
REGION.
OVERALL, PROGGED INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW IN THE 200-500 J/KG
RANGE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, WITH
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND AN 1" (CLOSE TO
200% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCALIZED AREAS THAT GET MULTIPLE
ROUNDS. ALTHOUGH, THE BEST PLACE TO SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS AND MORE
THAN AN INCH OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE THE FAR NORTHWEST,
WHERE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER A BIT
LONGER. TONIGHT, AN AREA FROM TEXLINE TO BOISE CITY TO KENTON ARE
OUTLOOKED FOR A 5% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
TOMORROW, FROM ADRIAN TO DALHART UP INTO EASTERN CIMARRON COUNTY
WESTWARD ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A AT LEAST A 15% CHANCE TO SEE RAINFALL
EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. ON SUNDAY THAT 15% CHANCE
ENCOMPASSED ABOUT FOUR FIFTHS OF THE FA EXCLUDING THE SOUTHEASTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE RAINFALL RATES WILL
EXCEED 1" AN HOUR, BUT IF THEY DO IT WILL BE WITH VERY ISOLATED
UPDRAFTS. DON'T EXPECT WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, BUT BE
PREPARED AS SOME NARROW CORRIDORS MAY STILL SEE IMPACTS DUE TO
TRAINING STORMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES.
THE SYSTEM IS NOT ONLY LOOKING TO BRING RAIN CHANCES, BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE
STUCK IN THE 60S, EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE LOOKING MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER SHOT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
TROUGH. LIKELY A WEAKER SYSTEM, BUT STILL DRAWING IN PACIFIC
MOISTURE FOR RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, PRESENT SATELLITE WAS SEEING SCATTER
CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH MOST OF THE CIGS BEING
REPORT HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP TERMINALS AT VFR CONDITIONS. THESE
CLOUD DECKS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT THIS HEIGHT THROUGH DAY WITH
SOME COVER BECOMING MORE BROKEN TO OVERCAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP
WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS TO BE CAPABLE
OF GUSTING UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST CAMS
NOT SEEING THE WEAKEN UNTIL SUNSET. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ALL
TERMINALS TO STAY VFR FOR THE PACKAGE.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...11
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