621
FXUS64 KAMA 082324
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
524 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS
CONTINUE MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST AS A LEE SURFACE LOW, JUST NORTH
OF THE PANHANDLES, CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST WITH IT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE NORTH, BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG BEHIND THE SYSTEM,
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TOMORROW. THIS IS ALSO IN
PART DUE TO ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PANHANDLES, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW UP MOISTURE, MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLES, AND
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN, MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. IT'S
LIKELY WE WOULD WARM UP A BIT MORE TOMORROW, BUT AS THE CLOUD
COVER INCREASES EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL REALLY SLOW DOWN THE
HEATING FROM THE SUN. RAIN CHANCES COULD MAKE IT AS FAR WEST A
AMARILLO, BUT RIGHT NOW ITS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE AND MAY NOT
BE LONG LIVED IF AT ALL. AS YOU MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF AN
AMARILLO, TX TO BEAVER, OK LINE THE CHANCES INCREASE, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES IN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WE MIGHT GET SOME CLEARING EARLY
ENOUGH TO GET THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP IN THE NORTHWEST. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE IN THE MID 20S UP IN CIMARRON COUNTY
TO MID 40S DOWN IN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLES. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE EASTERN PANHANDLES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST 08/12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN H500 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM SE COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
THE UL LOW IN SE CO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSING SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT, TD VALUES WILL GET INTO THE
50S. IN-CONJUNCTION WITH A SE SFC FLOW AND THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING MORE NNE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, THERE IS A
CHANCE THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN
AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM. A LOW CHANCE, BUT SOME NONETHELESS. ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS WHERE MORE
FAVORABLE LL THETA-E ADVECTION WOULD BE OCCURRING.
AS PRECIP EXITS AND NW FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF H500 LOW MOVES INTO
THE PANHANDLES, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MECCARIELLO
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS
BELOW 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW AND WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT KAMA TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. CIGS AND
VISIBILITY MAY DROP INTO MVFR AT KAMA IF RAIN SHOWERS GO OVER THE
TERMINAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
MUSCHA
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES IN NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES. AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE PRETTY DRY AND
RFTI'S ARE IN THE 3-5 RANGE, BUT IT'S MAINLY RH DRIVEN, SO
CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST ARE MINIMAL.
FURTHER SOUTH, SOME STRONGER WINDS AND RH VALUES THAT ARE COMING
IN A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED ARE ALLOWING FRO RFTI'S TO RANGE FROM
3 TO 6. HOWEVER THE ERC'S ARE MUCH LOWER IN THE SOUTH AND
THEREFORE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS ONLY ELEVATED. WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, SO THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN AS WELL.
WEBER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMARILLO TX 31 55 35 55 / 0 20 20 0
BEAVER OK 24 55 31 55 / 0 10 20 0
BOISE CITY OK 23 55 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 31 58 35 57 / 0 20 20 0
BOYS RANCH TX 27 58 30 56 / 0 10 10 0
CANYON TX 32 56 34 56 / 0 20 20 0
CLARENDON TX 36 53 41 56 / 0 30 40 0
DALHART TX 23 55 26 54 / 0 10 10 0
GUYMON OK 23 56 28 54 / 0 10 10 0
HEREFORD TX 31 58 34 58 / 0 20 20 0
LIPSCOMB TX 28 55 35 56 / 0 10 40 0
PAMPA TX 32 55 36 55 / 0 20 30 0
SHAMROCK TX 34 55 40 57 / 0 30 60 0
WELLINGTON TX 36 55 43 59 / 0 30 60 10
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...05
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