232
FXUS64 KAMA 012327
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021
AVIATION
00Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z MONDAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND THE TAF
FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED LATER. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 5
TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL AT THE THREE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 211 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021/
DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW THE AREA IS SOCKED IN TODAY WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. THIS IS KEEPING HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TODAY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE PANHANDLES AS WELL
TODAY THANKS TO SOME MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE FLOW.
MODELS INDICATE AN AREA OF NVA WILL CUT OFF THE SHOWERS BY THIS
EVENING AND CLEAR OUT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE COOLER AIR MASS AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TOMORROW WILL MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
AN OVERALL PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFT A BIT AND ALLOW FOR NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES IF
STORMS CAN MAKE IT FROM THE MOUNTAINS. MLCAPE AND MUCAPE ARE WEAK,
BUT DCAPE HAS SOME POSSIBLE POCKETS OF LARGE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
THAT WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WINDS, BUT IT
WOULDN'T BE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. SINCE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM TUESDAY IN THAT AREA, INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO SEVERE
WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK VERY LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE STRETCHES MORE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND PUTS
THE AREA IN NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL BE UNFAVORABLE
FOR PRECIP. THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND AND WE
WILL BE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DEPENDING ON THE PRESENCE OF
SHORTWAVES AND THE ABILITY TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL
DETERMINE IF THE WEEKEND REMAINS DRY OR NOT. AT LEAST FOR NOW,
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW.
BEAT
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
11/99
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