651
FXUS64 KAMA 021118
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
618 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
-RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS ON FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE.
-TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S
AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
-DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE RETURN BY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
LATEST 04Z OBS ALOFT SHOWS THE BACKSIDE OF A H500 POSITIVE TILTED
TROUGH, THE REMNANTS OF THE MAIN TROPICAL SYSTEM, TO CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE BROAD LIFT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MORE OVERCAST
SKIES AND INCREASED CLOUDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AS WELL CONTINUES TO FILL IN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS WELL.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY OVERALL,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. LATEST MOS NAM/GFS/ECMWF
AND OVERALL SHREF PROBABILITIES (70-95% CHANCE) SHOWS THE SOUTHERN
TX PANHANDLE WITH HIGHS AT OR BELOW 60 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY.
OVERALL HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE, INCLUDING AMARILLO, TO UPPER 60S IN THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD COME LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD MODERATE. RAIN CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THE MAIN SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE SOME OF THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WITH SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH SOME UPPER 40S FOR THE
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL EVENTUALLY VEER BACK TO
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ADVECT SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH OVERALL H500 HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE SW CONUS
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SOME GLOBAL MODEL DATA SHOWS A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
PRECIPITATION, BUT MOST OF THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS QUITE A BIT
BEFORE REACHING THE PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME, BUT ONE TO WATCH OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE SECOND HALF OF THE
COMING WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME MIST TO LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. MAINLY THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE TO INCLUDE KAMA. THIS MEANS SOME IFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR
KAMA, WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS FOR KGUY AND KDHT THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO HOW LONG KAMA WILL SEE IFR CIGS
BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR BUT SHOULD STAY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER.
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE LEADING TO 18Z AND GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND POSSIBLY
VARIABLE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...03
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