793
FXUS64 KAMA 030527
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1227 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF 04Z SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ADVANCING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT, AS AN H500
DISTURBANCE SITS TO OUR WEST OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS SFC BOUNDARY IS
THE FOCAL POINT FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MOST CAMS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNRISE, POTENTIALLY
MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EXTREMELY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS THANKS TO PWATS OF 1.0-1.5" ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN
RATES COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1-2"/HR LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY WANE EARLY IN THE MORNING DUE TO
OVERWORKING OF THE ENVIRONMENT, BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MAY QUICKLY REINVIGORATE ACTIVITY IN TANDEM
WITH A POTENTIAL REMNANT MCV TYPE FEATURE FROM MORNING CONVECTION.
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOWS A BROAD MCS DEVELOPING BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, PROGRESSING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR, THE PRESENCE OF 1500-2500 J/KG
MUCAPE COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. INCREASING PWAT VALUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY (10-40% CHANCE >1.5")
RAISE SOME CONCERNS FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY STRONGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION. RAIN RATES MAY ONCE AGAIN
REACH OR EXCEED 1-2"/HR, WITH 10-30% PROBABILITIES FOR LOCALIZED
RAINFALL TOTALS >2" ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES
(GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE).
LATEST TRENDS POINT TO MUCH OF THURSDAY BEING A RECOVERY DAY FOR THE
REGION AFTER STORMS EXIT TO OUR EAST WED NIGHT, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO FINALLY EJECTING EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS. A
SUBTLE, WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY REACH THE PANHANDLES BY THU EVENING
WITH POTENTIAL TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS RELATIVELY LOW DEPENDING
ON HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER (20-40% POPS).
HARREL
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GLOBAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS TROUGHING
TRANSLATING OVER THE PLAINS FRI-SAT, MAINTAINING APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION IN TANDEM WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT. AS
ANY DISTURBANCES ARRIVE TO THE PANHANDLES, PWATS LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE (>1"), WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (50S AND
60S DEW POINTS) AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
SUPPORT 20-50% POPS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FRI & SAT. AS WE'VE SEEN A
LOT LATELY, ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD, SO SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE HEAVY RAIN WHILE
OTHERS SEE NOTHING.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS DEPICT AN "OMEGA BLOCK" PATTERN
SETTING UP ATOP THE PLAINS, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLING IN
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH ROGUE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR PRECIPITATION COULD MATERIALIZE ANY GIVEN DAY, THIS TREND
MOSTLY FAVORS WARMER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE 90S
WILL BE MORE COMMON EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND 20% OR LESS DAILY. MODEL AGREEMENT
DEGRADES THROUGH THE WEEK, SO ANY SHIFTS IN RIDGING MAY INFLUENCE
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING FORWARD.
HARREL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CREATING HYPERACTIVE TAFS AT ALL SITES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS, AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE AMENDMENTS DUE TO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAUSING ERRATIC CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED/DIRECTION, AND ALSO BY CAUSING NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT
EFFECTIVELY TIMING THESE ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY WILL BE DIFFICULT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS CAN PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS AS
THEY OCCUR, ALONG WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page