422
FXUS64 KBRO 211748
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1248 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR INLAND CAMERON, WILLACY,
AND KENEDY COUNTIES BETWEEN 12 PM AND 7 PM CDT.
- THERE ARE STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW HUMIDITY, THOUGH THE RISK IS A LITTLE LESS DUE TO LOWER WINDS.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS STILL NOT RECOMMENDED.
- NO DIRECT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ARE EXPECTED FOR DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS, BUT AREA BEACHES COULD SEE ELEVATED RIP CURRENTS AND
HIGHER SURF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, WHICH WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS HOT AND RAIN-FREE WITH HIGH HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING (12 PM TO 7 PM CDT) FOR INLAND KENEDY, WILLACY,
AND CAMERON COUNTIES, WHERE HEAT INDICES UP TO 113 COULD OCCUR.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES CURRENTLY LOOK SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR
TOMORROW, ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES THIS WEEK ARE POSSIBLE. RECORD-
BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT.
THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS NEXT WEEK IS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WHEN A SMALL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES ARE LOW, BETWEEN 10 TO
20 PERCENT. OTHERWISE, ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM BERTHA STILL HAS THE SYSTEM
STAYING WELL-NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, IMPACTING THE LOUISIANA AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER THIS WEEK. WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING NO
DIRECT IMPACTS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
INDIRECT COASTAL IMPACTS SUCH AS ELEVATED SURF, AN INCREASED RISK OF
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, AND TIDAL RUNUP ARE EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE DANGER IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS THE PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS, BUT BECAUSE CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY
DRY (ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES), OUTDOOR BURNING IS STILL
NOT RECOMMENDED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS. CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SWELL IS
GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM BERTHA TO THE NORTH, WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY. IF SWELL REMAINS LOW, THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
OVERALL FAVORABLE, EXCEPTING SOME AFTERNOON PERIODS OF SCEC IN THE
BAY. HOWEVER, IF A HIGHER SWELL IS GENERATED, THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY MAKE CONDITIONS MORE ADVERSE INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 100 79 99 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 74 105 75 101 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 76 108 78 105 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 107 78 105 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 90 80 89 / 0 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 98 77 96 / 0 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-254-255.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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