267
FXUS64 KBRO 231728
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-25%) RETURN SATURDAY WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES (45-65%) LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
- PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ELEVATED
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO NARROW BEACHES DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF GRADUALLY
SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTH, MAINTAINING NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND BRINGING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE RGV. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, CURRENTLY
45-65 PERCENT, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US-281. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEA BREEZE AND STREAMING SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF LIKELY INCREASES THE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS NEXT WEEK AND MAY COMBINE WITH INCREASING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO NARROW BEACHES DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
A SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW CHANCE OF A
BRIEF SHOWER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING SWELL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH AFTERNOON WINDS
OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 86 73 85 / 20 20 10 0
HARLINGEN 68 87 70 86 / 10 20 10 0
MCALLEN 71 90 73 88 / 10 20 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 68 90 70 88 / 10 20 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 81 75 80 / 20 20 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 84 71 83 / 20 20 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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