493
FXUS64 KBRO 230545 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN
RETURN TUESDAY.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD MINOR RISKS
OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH ONLY A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY IN
THE MID-UPPER RGV AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRANSITS THROUGH. MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, KEEPING
RAINFALL COVERAGE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S
INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
TO MODERATE POPS (30-50%) ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
MOISTURE IS PULLED INLAND FROM THE GULF. RAIN CHANCES COULD PERSIST
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD TRANSPORT
FURTHER DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL INTO
SATURDAY. WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, RETURNING ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS.
LOW (10% OR LESS) RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND WILL INCREASE
AS THE TROUGH TRANSITS EASTWARD, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 86 72 86 73 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 87 68 87 70 / 0 0 10 0
MCALLEN 90 71 90 72 / 0 10 30 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 90 68 90 71 / 0 10 30 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 75 81 76 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 70 84 72 / 0 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...63-KC
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