577
FXUS64 KBRO 281152
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
652 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
- SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DAILY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
RAIN IS THURSDAY IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH LATE WEEK TO ABOVE NORMAL
BY THIS WEEKEND.
- A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY, THOUGH A DISTANT SHORTWAVE
INTERACTING WITH GULF MOISTURE MAY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY,
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CURRENT PACIFIC TROPICAL
STORM VANCE MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, BRINGING PWAT VALUES
AROUND 2" - VERY MOIST FOR LATE OCTOBER. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, HIGHEST IN THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS (40%). MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF A DIURNAL ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY CLIMB UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY. A CLOSED LOW ENTERING CENTRAL CONUS MAY
BRING A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE DEPTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM,
SO CONTINUE MONITORING THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES.
AT AREA BEACHES, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING HIGH
TIDE, WITH ELEVATED SWELL PERIODS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
THERE IS A LOW (10-15%) CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO ONSHORE WINDS, SLIGHT SEAS, AND
7 TO 8 SECOND PERIOD SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW TO
MODERATE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY (30-60%) DIMINISH THURSDAY ONWARDS,
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 87 73 86 71 / 20 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 88 70 86 68 / 10 10 0 0
MCALLEN 92 74 89 72 / 10 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 91 71 88 70 / 10 10 30 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 75 80 74 / 20 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 71 83 70 / 20 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...60-BE
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