272
FXUS64 KBRO 191930 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
230 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* MEDIUM TO LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER RAIN TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW, POSSIBLY BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN ALONG/EAST OF US-281 BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WHEN THE BULK OF
THE RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL.
* BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
TODAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WAVES, MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TONIGHT AS
WELL AS LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST AS WELL,
RISING FROM THE 50S/60 TODAY AND TONIGHT INTO THE 70S TOMORROW.
* SUNNIER SKIES RESUMES TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND INTO
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT, A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, LEAVING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, CLOUDY SKIES, BREEZY
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (GUSTING TO 15-25 MPH)
AREAS OF DRIZZLE INLAND AND INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM COASTAL TROUGHING ALONG/NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAIN OFFSHORE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME. THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT, SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN US, SETTING UP
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF, PUSHING THE SURFACE LOW
NORTHWESTWARD OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING; ON-
AND-OFF LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INCREASES IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT, WITH A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (50-90%)
PERSISTING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES WEST TOWARD MEXICO DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW, EASTERLY WINDS RETURN ON ITS BACKSIDE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY CONTINUE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (40-70%) CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY
FOLLOWED BY A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TOMORROW
NIGHT, LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN AND THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
LIKELY TO BE ALONG/EAST OF US-281, WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES
IS EXPECTED, THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE OVER 2 INCHES
WHERE HEAVIER RAIN SETS UP. ALTHOUGH WPC HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING
AREAS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW. HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH IS
EXPECTED FURTHER WEST, WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN AND LESSER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE UPPER RGV.
AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY EVENING, DRY
CONDITIONS (LESS THAN 10% POPS) SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK, THOUGH COASTAL TROUGHING COULD
MAINTAIN A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
INTO WEDNESDAY. CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING BY A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND
FALLING A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT, REMAINING IN THE 60S ALONG/EAST OF
US-281 AND IN THE 50S FURTHER WEST. EASTERLY FLOW TOMORROW LEADS
TO HIGHS IN THE 70S IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO THE 60S
TOMORROW NIGHT. BREAKS IN OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY,
GRADUALLY BECOMING SUNNIER THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, WARMING
FROM THE 80S ON TUESDAY INTO THE 80S/90S ON WEDNESDAY ON THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED WIDESPREAD 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COASTAL
WATERS CONTINUE TO LEAD TO BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL
7 PM THIS EVENING AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM
TONIGHT. FACTORING IN WAVE PERIODS OF 7-8 SECONDS WITH ELEVATED
SEAS, A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT/HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SWIMMING AT THE BEACHES IS NOT
RECOMMENDED AS LIFE-THREATENING CURRENTS AND DANGEROUS SURF
PREVAIL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, 4-6 SM VIS. AND IFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KNOTS CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW BY MID-DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS RESUME TUESDAY. A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (40-
80%) CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 65 78 70 82 / 80 60 50 40
HARLINGEN 62 78 66 84 / 80 70 50 40
MCALLEN 62 78 68 86 / 80 60 50 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 58 76 65 86 / 80 50 50 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 76 73 78 / 80 70 50 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 78 69 82 / 80 70 50 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-
454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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