271
FXUS64 KBRO 111725
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1225 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA, EXCEPTING THE ISLANDS.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY FOR BOTH THE BAY AND THE GULF WATERS.
- BEACH HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED WITH TODAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE
IS A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW AND WILL WARM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY, WHICH WILL CREATE SIMILAR HAZARDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT,
WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR, COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING D2 TO D4
DROUGHT, WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA FOR TOMORROW FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS AND HOW LOW THE HUMIDITY GETS BEHIND THE FRONT, A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT OR RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY DROUGHT RELIEF NEXT
WEEK, AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT.
TOMORROW'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES IN
THE MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 40S. A WARMING TREND
COMMENCES ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT TO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-70S FOR A FEW DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
AND POSSIBLY CREATE MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THERE IS ALSO HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS, STARTING THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY AND A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z
IS EXPECTED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY. ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BAY AND ON
THE GULF WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT SCEC CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. MORE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 95 62 74 51 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 96 56 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 97 59 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 95 58 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 62 69 61 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 59 71 53 / 10 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ250-251-253>255-351-353>355.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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