051
FXUS64 KBRO 270537 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1237 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT
OF 4) HEAT RISK WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT
RISK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
- HEAT SPIKES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 105-115F DEGREES;
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPSS) AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.
- A WELCOME WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER COULD
TAKE SHAPE AT THE START OF OCTOBER (SOMETIME MID NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND).
- OUR NEXT BEST AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN (DUE TO
INCREASED MOISTURE, A COOL FRONT, AND NEARBY SHORTWAVE TROUGH)
WILL COME MID NEXT WEEK TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND; CURRENTLY
HAVE LOW-MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) AREAWIDE IN THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.
- THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
WEDNESDAY (DAY 5).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORYLINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, BY THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK TIMEFRAME (OR AS WE MOVE INTO THE MONTH OF OCTOBER),
THE STORYLINE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR A
MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS,
DRIVEN BY EL NINO INFLUENCES.
WE START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE DRY, WARM, AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, THE STRONG HEAT DOME THAT'S
BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL
BEGIN WEAKENING. DESPITE THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE, IT'S INFLUENCE
OVERHEAD WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE YIELDING RAIN-FREE AND
HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK IS WHEN THINGS GET
INTERESTING REGARDING OUR AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN SHIFT. HURRICANE
POLO DURING THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA OF CALIFORNIA, NORTHERN MEXICO, AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN
TEXAS. ALONG WITH THE RE-CURVATURE OF HURRICANE POLO, DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL STREAM WILL BEGIN TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH, COURTESY OF A LARGE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST.
THE COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THESE
TWO SOURCE REGIONS ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAT DOME IN PLACE
(THOUGH WEAKENING) WILL RESULT IN A HEAT SPIKE WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
DANGEROUS PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 105-113F DEGREES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO
EXTREME LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK OVER THE REGION. SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS (SPSS) AND/OR A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME (TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK), A
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TEXAS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE POSSIBLY STALLING TO
OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND MID-UPPER ENERGIES RESIDING NEAR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF A NEARBY MID-UPPER IMPULSES, A
NEARBY STALLED/STALLING COOL FRONT, AND THE INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF OF AMERICA AND THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC OCEAN WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.
THIS IS THE POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT THAT WE'VE BEEN CLOSELY
MONITORING, AND IF REALIZED, WILL BRING THE BREAKTHROUGH RAINS
THAT WE'VE BEEN WAITING FOR SO LONG AS WELL AS A NOTABLY COOLER
PATTERN DUE TO THE INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAINS. THIS
POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT TO START OCTOBER HAS EL NINO WRITTEN ALL
OVER IT. AGAIN, WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST
TRENDS IN THE DAYS AHEAD. CURRENTLY, WE'VE HAVE LOW-MEDIUM
(30-60%) POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AREAWIDE. IT'S TOO
EARLY TO GET INTO THE EXACT IMPACTS, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS OUTLOOKED OUR ENTIRE AREA UNDER A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY
(DAY 5).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
GENERALLY, FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS (WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 1-3
FEET) AND WINDS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND POINTS FORWARD, CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE ADVERSE DUE TO THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL AS INCREASED SEAS. SCEC TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 97 78 96 80 / 10 0 20 10
HARLINGEN 100 74 99 75 / 0 0 10 0
MCALLEN 102 78 102 79 / 0 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 103 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 89 82 / 0 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 77 94 78 / 0 10 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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