061
FXUS64 KBRO 110303
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1003 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 958 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY. COASTAL FLOODING
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS BEACHES AND GULF WATERS.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING LATE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
- MOSTLY MINOR RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) BECOME
MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVEL 2 TO 3/4) BY MONDAY AS DEEP LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ELEVATED
SURF AND LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS A 20% OR LESS CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS MONDAY
EAST OF I-69C, AND A 10% OR LESS CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS
THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BRINGING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF RIDGING
OVER THE GULF AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT EXTENDS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, SO BE SURE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR ADJUSTMENTS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S TODAY, CLIMBING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S MONDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-
110 DEGF RANGE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT
NEAR (OR EVEN BELOW) NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. EXPECT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KTS
THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
LONG PERIOD SWELL IN THE WAKE OF POST TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. MODERATE SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH MODERATE ONSHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES STAY LOW (GENERALLY 30% OR LESS) THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK MAY ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE CONDITIONS AND
INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 91 77 90 79 / 0 0 10 20
HARLINGEN 93 73 92 75 / 0 0 10 10
MCALLEN 95 76 94 78 / 10 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 93 74 94 76 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 86 82 / 0 0 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 76 89 78 / 0 0 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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