376
FXUS64 KBRO 111122 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
622 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- UNSEASONABLY HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST.
- DRY WEATHER, WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
- SLIGHTLY ADVERSE WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MARINERS.
- ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE POSITIONED ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL REMAIN
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER LOUISIANA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION EXISTS FOR FRIDAY,
AS AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH SNEAKS UNDER THE 500 MB HIGH AND
MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UP A DEGREE
OR TWO EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY INTO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THIS
WILL CAUSE A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO BECOME MAJOR TO EXTREME AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES, EVENTUALLY EASING FOR THE WEEKEND BACK INTO MODERATE
TO MAJOR TERRITORY.
FINALLY, WITH A GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST EXPECTED, A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES WILL LIKELY OCCUR DAILY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE TO BREEZY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
IT CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA WILL BECOME ENHANCED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS INITIALLY
WILL BECOME MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS AND MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY
ADVERSE SEAS BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED
STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 96 81 97 82 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 99 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 102 81 104 81 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 103 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 90 82 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 80 97 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...66-TOMASELLI
LONG TERM....66-TOMASELLI
AVIATION...63-KC
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