044
FXUS64 KBRO 160342
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1042 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
* ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STREAM ONSHORE FROM THE GULF INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
* HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK INCREASING TO MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND.
* THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATNING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GULF, CUTTING RAIN
CHANCES BY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AND TURNING UP THE HEAT.
DAILY SURGES OF MOISTURE, WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.9 INCHES, STILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE, LESS THAN 20 PERCENT, OF STREAMER SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING AND A VERY LOW CHANCE, LESS THAN 10
PERCENT, FOR A SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY
FRIDAY, THOSE CHANCES DROP EVEN FURTHER, FALLING TO NEAR ZERO OVER
THE WEEKEND.
OF MORE CONCERN, THOSE DAILY SURGES OF MOISTURE ADD TO A NEW
ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
HEAT- RELATED ISSUES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY TOP 100 FOR MANY LOCATIONS BY NEXT WEEK, NEARING
RECORD HIGHS BY MID-WEEK. A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK CAN
BE EXPECTED EVERY DAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY, WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK IN
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEGINNING FRIDAY.
ALONG THE COAST, LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK OF
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH CONDITIONS
OVERALL BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND RETURNING BY MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW, LESS THAN 20 PERCENT, CHANCE OF
A STREAMER SHOWER OR TWO ROAMING NEAR THE RGV AERODROMES THURSDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED WITH A LONG
PERIOD SWELL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. GENERALLY
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL DRIVE A PERIODIC CHOP ON THE BAY WITH
POTENTIALLY A DAILY SMALL CRAFT CAUTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 93 81 94 / 10 20 0 10
HARLINGEN 78 95 79 96 / 10 10 0 0
MCALLEN 81 98 80 99 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 98 79 100 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 81 88 / 10 20 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 91 80 92 / 10 20 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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