916
FXUS64 KBRO 300546 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1246 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- HOT, MAINLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH AREAS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF
4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS,
AND VERY HIGH EVAPORATION RATES.
- THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS, LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES,
AND HOT TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISKS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- DESPITE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
HOT, MAINLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE BROAD AND STRONG 591-594 DAM SUB-TROPICAL HEAT DOME THAT
RECENTLY RESULTED IN A HEAT WAVE WITH RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IS ON THE
MOVE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK OR INTO THE EARLY PART OF
SEPTEMBER. THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND SPECIFICALLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST COAST WILL
EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES AND HEAT RISK IN THE DAYS
AHEAD. DESPITE THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN PRIOR DAYS, THE HEAT RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL
STILL YIELD HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES (THOUGH NOT QUITE RECORD-
BREAKING AS PRIOR DAYS) THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE NEAR 100F DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST TO THE MID 100S FURTHER INLAND OR WEST, WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO POCKETS OR AREAS OF EXTREME
)LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. PEAK HEAT INDICES
WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 105-115F DEGREES (HIGHEST CLOSER TO
THE COAST) THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DROUGHT
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN, THE LARGE-SCALE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FAVOR A EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHICH AT TIMES COULD TRIGGER
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION (SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO PICK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW (<10%) CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF AN AIRFIELD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS (1 TO 3 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS) AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 97 81 98 80 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 100 76 101 77 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 103 81 103 80 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 104 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 90 81 / 10 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 79 96 79 / 10 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...60-BE
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