250
FXUS64 KBRO 071845
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
145 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE ALONG/EAST OF
I-69C THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS
MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. COASTAL FLOODING AND
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS BEACHES.
- MOSTLY MINOR RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) BECOME
MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) BY NEXT MONDAY AS DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER RGV AND
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS
BENEATH PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UPWARDS OF 2-3 INCHES WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS TRAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CAMERON, WILLACY, AND KENEDY COUNTIES. GIVEN ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES, PRIMARILY ACROSS LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
MEANWHILE, WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROMOTE GENERAL RAIN-FREE
AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY, WITH
MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE GULF WATERS, AND SOUTHERN
CAMERON COUNTY. GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. AN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW
(10% OR LESS).
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND TRACK
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, AND WHILE NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS, HAZARDOUS BEACH/MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. COASTAL
FLOODING AND A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS SEAS INCREASE UPWARDS OF 5-7 FEET LATE THIS
WEEK AND WEEKEND. PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING
SWELL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WATERS TO PUSH INTO THE DUNES,
ESPECIALLY ALONG NARROW BEACHES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, MAINLY AT HRL AND BRO, BEFORE CLEARING OUT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND OR BELOW 10
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED SEAS AROUND 5-7 FEET. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING SWELL IS
EXPECTED AS TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS TRAVELS NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR NIGHT, AND
FOR THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS BY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, BEFORE DECREASING THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 93 77 90 / 50 50 20 20
HARLINGEN 73 96 72 90 / 20 40 10 20
MCALLEN 76 98 75 92 / 10 40 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 97 72 91 / 10 20 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 81 86 / 50 50 30 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 91 76 88 / 40 40 20 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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