577
FXUS64 KBRO 082245 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
545 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 539 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- LOW CHANCES OF RAIN (20-30%) CONTINUE ALONG THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH MONDAY.
- THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY HEADING INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF AUGUST IS
THE SUMMERTIME HEAT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HOWEVER, WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES TRANSLATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL
INTERACT WITH THE PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST MONDAY, RESULTING IN
ENHANCED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED, BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXPECT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
AROUND 102 DEGREES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, WITH HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 105-110 DEGREES.
RIDGING ALOFT STARTS TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-69E CORRIDOR. IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED
HUMIDITY, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (HEAT INDICES ABOVE 111 DEGREES) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. OTHERWISE, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BY MID WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO BREEZY
ON SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY
AFFECT THE AERODROMES ON SUNDAY, AND THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS MAY
NEED TO REFLECT THIS IF THE HRRR MODEL BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHRA/TSTM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS. BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY IN RESPONSE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-40%)
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 94 80 96 / 0 30 0 10
HARLINGEN 75 96 76 99 / 0 30 0 10
MCALLEN 79 100 80 102 / 10 20 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 99 77 102 / 10 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 88 81 89 / 10 30 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 93 78 95 / 10 20 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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