084
FXUS64 KBRO 151142 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
642 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022
DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND MOVE STEADILY NORTH
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY.
THE CONVECTION IS FAVORING KMFE THIS MORNING WITH KHRL AND KBRO
SEEING DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT GENERAL SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
THE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPER
OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW CHANCE TONIGHT. VFR IS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY): THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVE
INLAND YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY SPINNING NEAR LAREDO. SATELLITE AND
RADAR INDICATES THIS LOW HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS FORWARD MOTION
OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP IN BANDING
FEATURES WHICH CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NE MEXICO AND TRACK NORTH
THROUGH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SHOW THIS
BANDING AND TRAINING OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE THIS MORNING SLOWLY
SHIFTING WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS EXCESSIVE WITH LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS NEARLY 2.5
INCHES. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 2.3 TO 2.5 INCHES TODAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. 2 TO 4 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SINCE FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3+ INCHES TODAY RESULTING IN A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD NUISANCE FLOODING OR SOME WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING AS
RAINFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 3IN/HR. IN THE STRONGEST SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS. WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO)FOR TODAY IS
MARGINAL WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ATMOSPHERE SET-UP AND AS A
RESULT HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WITH EXCEPTION TO THE COASTAL AND BARRIER ISLAND
COUNTIES.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH-NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A STEADY WEST TO EAST LOWERING OF
OUR RAIN CHANCES. SEA BREEZE COMBINING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20-30 PERCENT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL BUT IT SHOULD
NOT BE AS PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS THE LAST FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECT TO THE RAIN BANDS WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDING BELOW AVERAGE WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES. RAIN COOLED AIR AND SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR
TONIGHT'S LOWS TO DROP IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AS WE SEE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES RETURN.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY): AN H5 RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVERHEAD TO START THE LONG TERM AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA (CWA) MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. DEW POINTS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED
EACH AFTERNOON THAN THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS DUE TO THE RAIN THIS
PAST WEEKEND. COUPLE THAT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDICES WILL BE BETWEEN 107 TO 111 AT TIMES WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY,
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS, SO A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ANY ONE OF
THOSE DAYS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.7
TO 1.9 INCHES, WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
MID- LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS, SO HAVE CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
LATER IN THE WEEK, A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH BEFORE AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE A SURGE OF
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES ARRIVING NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. IF
THIS COMES TO PASS, RAIN CHANCES WOULD RAMP UP AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, IS ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME
DUE TO LACK OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. THEREFORE HAVE CAPPED RAIN
CHANCES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE: NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVING INLAND NEAR KENEDY COUNTY IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF LAREDO, TEXAS. THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MAINTAINING A STEADY STATE MODERATE SEA. EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE WINDS AND
SEAS SLOWLY RELAX TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS NORTHWEST
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MOSTLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TO START THE
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. LATER IN THE WEEK,
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION (SCEC) CRITERIA, AS SEAS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO THE 3 TO 5
FEET RANGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 79 90 78 / 30 10 20 0
BROWNSVILLE 89 79 92 79 / 40 10 30 10
HARLINGEN 90 77 92 76 / 50 10 20 0
MCALLEN 90 78 95 78 / 60 20 30 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 91 77 95 77 / 70 30 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 81 86 81 / 30 10 20 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248>255-353.
GM...NONE.
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59-GB/58-REESE
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