655
FXUS64 KBRO 021843
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1243 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1234 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR AND EAST OF I-69 E
THIS AFTERNOON.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY AND TOMORROW,
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH EXPECTED.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BECOMES A HIGH RISK THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO THE 80S BY SATURDAY, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
TO THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND EAST
OF I-69 E AS WELL AS OVER THE GULF WATERS AHEAD OF A WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
FORMING AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY INTO
TOMORROW, BREEZY (AROUND 15-20 MPH, GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH) DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SURFACE HIGH INTERACTS WITH PRESSURE
FALLS TO OUR WEST. DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION, AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND (UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70S ALONG/NEAR THE COAST) TODAY TO MAINLY 80S INLAND AND 70S
ALONG/NEAR THE COAST TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, AN UPSTREAM RIDGE FLOWS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, HELPING TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS POSSIBLY BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, MOVING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT TOMORROW NIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH AND COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY, SENDING A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY, LEADING TO BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS,
CLOUDY SKIES AND A LOW (15%) CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
ALONG/NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS ARE
ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY (IN THE LOW/MID 70S), FALLING TO THE
40S/50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING RESUMES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY,
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN TEXAS MAINTAINS NORTHERLY WINDS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S/70S ON THURSDAY. CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF RESULTS IN CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST (THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK). HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE 70S ON
FRIDAY TO MOSTLY 80S ON SATURDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALL TO THE 50S.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BECOMES A HIGH RISK THIS EVENING
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES PREVAIL TODAY INTO TOMORROW, THOUGH
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, DESPITE A FEW LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT KBRO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS, OR
HIGHER, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
(2-4 FEET) SEAS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASE TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE
(5-7 FEET) SEAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THERE IS A LOW (15-25%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
GOES INTO EFFECT 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS (0-60 NM). CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE (3-4 FEET) SEAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH. A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH MID-
MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING STRONG WITH MODERATE (5-7 FEET) SEAS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY; SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH SCA LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT TO AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING
POSSIBLY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAILING, BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 63 78 59 75 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 58 81 54 72 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 61 84 58 74 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 58 83 54 74 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 72 60 68 / 0 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 60 77 57 72 / 0 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY
FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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