901
FXUS64 KBRO 121137 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
637 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
- UNSEASONABLY HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST.
- DRY WEATHER, WITH INTERMITTENT ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHTLY ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL LARGELY
BE CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL
PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR
THE BRO CWFA. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXISTS FOR FRIDAY, AS AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH SNEAKS UNDER
THE 500 MB HIGH AND MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO. AN
ADDITIONAL SHOT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UP A DEGREE
OR TWO EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY INTO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THIS
WILL CAUSE A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO BECOME MAJOR TO EXTREME AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES, EVENTUALLY EASING FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE NEW
WORK WEEK BACK INTO MODERATE TO MAJOR TERRITORY.
FINALLY, WITH A GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST EXPECTED, A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES WILL LIKELY OCCUR DAILY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
AN INTENSIFYING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA
WILL PRODUCE MORE ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION IS LIKELY, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT. MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MORE MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 97 81 97 82 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 101 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 104 81 103 82 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 105 79 104 80 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 82 90 82 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 80 96 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...66-TOMASELLI
LONG TERM....66-TOMASELLI
AVIATION...63-KC
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