223
FXUS64 KBRO 261911
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
211 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. A SWATH OF CLOUDS
AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY LIE OVER THE MID-VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
A FEW EXTANT SHOWERS. A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS IS ALOFT, RESULTING IN
LINGERING INSTABILITY, AND ONE MORE DAY OF ROBUST, ALBEIT NON-SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. THE AREA IS IN A GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK AND A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM FILLS IN THE CWA WITH PRECIP COVERAGE MUCH
OF SATURDAY, THOUGH ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LOWER
SIDE. BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD STILL LEAD TO SHORT TERM SPIKES IN
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING. RECENT RAINS HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY BENEFICIAL, WITH BROWNSVILLE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE YEAR NOW
SEVERAL INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL REMAIN LOW.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST SUNDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES HOLD
OVER THE CENTRAL US BY MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRIER CONDITIONS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, AS
THE RIDGE LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR ZERO MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON HOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND
108-110 EACH AFTERNOON, REMAINING JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. VERY LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW MID
CLOUDS. DEEP MOISTURE IS STILL TRANSITING THE REGION, JUST A BIT
UPSTREAM OVER THE MID-VALLEY RIGHT NOW. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS
MAY GET GOING OVER THE LOWER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE
LOWERING AND THICKENING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. WOULD EXPECT VFR
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING OTHERWISE, EXCEPT NEAR HIT AND MISS
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DUE MAINLY TO HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTH GULF, LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS.
ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY CONVECTION. I DO
NOT EXPECT SCEC NOR SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD, SUPPORTING GENERALLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. THE INTERACTION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND A STRENGTHENING THERMAL LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO COULD RESULT IN TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENTS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE LAGUNA MADRE, AND MAY REQUIRE SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 76 89 78 92 / 50 60 50 30
HARLINGEN 73 88 76 92 / 50 60 40 30
MCALLEN 76 90 78 95 / 40 60 30 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 89 76 94 / 40 60 30 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 86 81 88 / 50 60 40 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 88 77 91 / 40 60 40 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...54
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