071
FXUS64 KBRO 092255 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
555 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 552 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL TAKE PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING; CURRENT PROBABILITIES RANGE
BETWEEN 30-40%.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S WITH HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 105-115F DEGREES WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK
NEXT WEEK.
- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPSS) AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE RETURN OF THE HEAT.
- BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-25
MPH GUSTING 30-40 MPH.
- FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PARTS
OF THE WEEK BEFORE BECOMING MORE UNFAVORABLE MID TO LATE WEEK
AMID INCREASED WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS THE
PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM. SEVERAL CAM AND AI/ML
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ROBUST THAN YESTERDAY IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WE'VE BUMPED UP POPS AND ADJUSTED THE WX
GRIDS THIS MORNING IN ANTICIPATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER ON.
CURRENTLY, THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA REVEALS MOST OF
THE COVERAGE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL START OFF ALONG/NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SPREADING WESTWARD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESS. GIVEN THE ELEVATED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT (HIGH PWAT VALUES), CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 2,000-4,000 J/KG, AND INCREASED HEATING, THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS KIND OF ACTIVITY LATER ON TODAY. ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITIES OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP THE HEAT IN
CHECK TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S NEAR THE COAST
TO NEAR 100F DEGREES WELL INLAND WEST OF IH-69C/US-281.
THE HEAT AND DRY THEME RETURNS MONDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS MID-UPPER RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND STRENGTHENS OVER
THE REGION. HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN TO HOTTER THAN NORMAL
LEVELS WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S. PEAK
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-115F DEGREES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
HEAT RISK DURING THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH
POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) WILL BE COMMON THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPS) AND HEAT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES NEXT WEEK.
IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-30 MPH
GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BECOME MODERATE TO BREEZY
ON MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY
AFFECT THE AERODROMES JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING, AND
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF TAFS MAY NEED TO REFLECT THIS IF THE HRRR
MODEL BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
STREAMER SHRA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
BEGINNING PARTS OF THE WORKWEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS.
HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS COULD RESULT IN MORE ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC)
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK ALONG THE LAGUNA MADRE
ESPECIALLY AND MAYBE PORTIONS OF THE GULF. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE MID TO
LATE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 96 81 96 / 10 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 76 98 77 99 / 10 10 0 0
MCALLEN 80 101 80 102 / 20 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 101 78 102 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 81 89 / 10 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 95 79 95 / 10 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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