460
FXUS64 KBRO 272335 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
* MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
AS THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXIT THE
REGION, MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MOVE OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY TONIGHT AND STAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTER THAT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH AND WE COULD SEE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRY TO MAKE
ITS WAY THROUGH BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY AROUND THE LOWER 90S, WITH LOWS IN THE 70S FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL.
AFTER THAT THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS DO KEEP
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LOW (LESS THAN 30%) MONDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN DO APPEAR TO BE ON TUESDAY AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE MODEL TRENDS TO
CHANGE, THUS IT IMPORTANT TO STAY UP TO DATE ON THE CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE WHERE THE FORECAST GOES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE WAY OUT OF THE
REGION CURRENTLY, LEAVING ONLY BRO TO BE AFFECTED AT THE TIME OF
WRITING. HOWEVER THAT SHOULD COME TO AN END SOON. A MIXTURE OF
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE GOING TO MOSTLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD CREEP IN AGAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY TURN BACK TO VFR A LITTLE
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND SHOULD ALLOW
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. TONIGHT, MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS
BEGIN TO BUILD. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG TO FORM AT ALL
SITES NEAR SUNRISE, REDUCING VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF WITH DAYTIME HEATING THURSDAY MORNING, RETURNING
VFR THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION THAT
PASSED THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS SUCH, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH 1 AM TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE UP TO 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER, ADVERSE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE WINDS
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO COME DOWN BELOW 15 KNOTS. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY MONDAY, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 91 77 92 / 10 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 74 90 73 91 / 10 10 0 0
MCALLEN 76 92 76 93 / 10 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 92 75 94 / 20 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 85 80 85 / 20 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 88 77 89 / 20 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...69-HK
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