351
FXUS64 KBRO 080555 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1255 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
- MEDIUM (30-55%) CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE ALONG/EAST OF I-69C
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND LOW (15-25%)
FRIDAY.
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS
SURF, AND MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES.
- MOSTLY MINOR RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) BECOME
MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) BY NEXT MONDAY AS DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
ALL EYES ARE ON HURRICANE ISAIAS AS IT WORKS NORTHEAST, THEN
NORTH TOWARD A LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LOCALLY, THE RUN OF PERSISTENT, MOSTLY BENEFICIAL, RAINFALL IS
GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END INTO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENS. PWAT VALUES
INCREASED FROM 1.8 INCHES TUESDAY EVENING TO 2.5 INCHES THIS
EVENING, WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. BY THIS
TIME TOMORROW, MOST GUIDANCE DROPS PWATS TO 1.5 INCHES, THE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND NEAR 1.1 INCHES BY FRIDAY
MORNING, WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR OCTOBER 9TH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN MAY
SNEAK BACK IN WITH SEA BREEZE OR STREAMER SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RGV GENERALLY START IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S EACH MORNING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WARMING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON, GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE THE CLIMATE
NORMALS OF LOW 70S AND NEAR 90. THE RANCHLANDS MAY FIND A FEW
COMFORTABLE MORNINGS INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE SWELL FROM ISAIAS WILL LIKELY BRING COASTAL IMPACTS,
INCLUDING ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS,
AND TIDAL RUNUP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. COMBINED WITH A
NEW MOON ON SATURDAY, INUNDATION AT HIGH TIDE CYCLES FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MAY REACH INTO THE DUNES. HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED
LATE AT NIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE WEEKEND,
LIMITING AVAILABLE BEACH OR POTENTIALLY MAKING ALREADY NARROW
BEACHES IMPASSABLE.
BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS MAY BE ARRIVING SOON, INCLUDING HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES, AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. BRO RADAR CURRENTLY
INDICATES SOME TROPICAL RAIN BANDS OVER THE GULF WATERS,
SOUTHEAST OF BRO. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY HEAVIER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TROPICAL
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, WITH HURRICANE ISAIAS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHERLY AS IT WORKS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY BUILD SEAS AND SWELL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. EXPECT PERIODIC TROPICAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 75 91 75 / 40 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 90 71 91 70 / 40 0 20 0
MCALLEN 92 73 93 73 / 40 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 92 71 92 70 / 20 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 80 86 79 / 30 10 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 76 88 74 / 40 0 20 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...63-KC
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