114
FXUS64 KBRO 141749 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
- A MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVELS 1-2 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVELS 2-3 OF 4) HEAT RISK
LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING SWELL NEAR HIGH TIDE CYCLES MAY RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR OR
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO OUT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND
WESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS EVENING'S 0Z BROWNSVILLE SOUNDING INDICATED
A PWAT VALUE OF 2.27 INCHES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HIGH (40-70%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WANES SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR OR
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO OUT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN
GULF OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS IN PLACES AS A WEAK
FRONTAL MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES (60 TO 80%) FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 5-6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA (ZAPATA, STARR,
JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTIES) AND A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, HIDALGO AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH HUMIDITY CONTINUES. THERE IS A MODERATE TO MAJOR
(LEVELS 2-3 OF 4) HEAT RISK THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. INCREASING SWELL NEAR HIGH TIDE CYCLES MAY RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT THE AIRFIELDS, THOUGH VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR.
RAIN CHANCES SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING WITH VFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING, AND MAY PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IF ANY CONVECTION MOVES OVER AN
AIRFIELD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SLIGHTLY ADVERSE TO ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE THE LAGUNA MADRE AND SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON THE GULF WATERS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND THE
GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BE
CONDUCIVE FOR WATERSPOUTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE EDGES OF HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT
THIS WEEK BEFORE BECOMING ADVERSE ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 90 79 87 / 60 60 80 80
HARLINGEN 78 90 76 86 / 60 70 80 90
MCALLEN 79 91 78 86 / 50 70 90 90
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 91 75 85 / 40 60 90 90
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 88 81 86 / 70 50 70 70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 89 78 87 / 60 60 80 80
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...60-BE
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