195
FXUS64 KBRO 022253 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
553 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 549 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
-SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND RETURN
AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
-HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN MINOR (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2
OUT OF 4) FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY MAINTAINING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, THE DEWPOINT DROPPED TO 69 DEGREES IN THE PAST
HOUR AT MCALLEN. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK BOUNDARY, DAYTIME HEATING
AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT (PWATS OF 2.17 INCHES PER BRO 12Z SOUNDING
THIS MORNING) WILL ALLOW ANOTHER AROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY INDICATES ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
(30 TO 60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SLOW
MOVING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT MEDIUM (30 TO 60 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DAILY HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN MINOR (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4)
TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD STILL
SEE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AERODROMES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
THAT COULD LEAD TO BRIEF LOWERED VISIBILITIES BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 94 77 96 / 40 20 10 10
HARLINGEN 74 97 73 99 / 30 10 0 10
MCALLEN 78 101 77 103 / 30 10 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 101 75 103 / 30 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 80 89 / 40 20 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 92 75 93 / 30 20 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...68
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