505
FXUS64 KBRO 221022 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
522 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
- DAILY ABOVE AVERAGE AND RECORD BREAKING OR TYING TEMPERATURES,
MAXIMIZING AROUND 100 TO 107+ F, WITH HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO
111+ F, CONTINUE MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISKS (LEVELS 2/4 AND
3/4), POSSIBLY BECOMING MOSTLY MAJOR WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME
HEAT RISKS (LEVEL 4/4) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES,
NOT INCLUDING THE BARRIER ISLANDS, FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY
FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108 TO 111 F, POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HIGHER.
ADDITIONAL SPSS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES.
- LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND, AT TIMES, BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE AN ENHANCED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD.
- WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TROPICS AND UPDATES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA,
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, AND ITS POTENTIAL
IMPACTS, IF ANY, LATER THIS WEEK.
- A LOW RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED RISKS OF RIP CURRENTS, ELEVATED SURF AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AS HAS BEEN THE ONGOING WEATHER PATTERN, A 494-497+ DAM HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM A LOW TO MEDIUM END CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, DISCUSSED FURTHER BELOW, DRY AND, AT
TIMES, BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ALONG WITH
DAILY ABOVE AVERAGE, RECORD BREAKING OR TYING HEAT. WEDNESDAY COULD
FEATURE THE HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES, LIKELY MAXIMIZING IN THE
LOW/MID 100S ALONG/EAST OF I-69 E, WHILE ALL LOCATIONS TO THE WEST
EXPERIENCE MID/UPPER 100S. FOLLOWING, INLAND HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO RANGE AROUND 100-106 F, POTENTIALLY PEAKING AROUND 107+ F ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST PREVAIL. GIVEN LARGER AFTERNOON DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY COINCIDING WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS, GENERALLY GUSTING TO 20-25+ MPH, AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD PREVAILS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION IS URGED WHEN
HANDLING FLAMES DUE TO DRY OR NORMAL FUELS ACROSS THE REGION.
ONCE AGAIN, A SPS IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
COASTAL AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES
AS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDICES PEAK AROUND 108 TO 111 F
AND POSSIBLY HIGHER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. FORECAST APPARENT
TEMPERATURES DO NOT QUITE SATISFY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, SHOULD OVERNIGHT AND/OR WEDNESDAY MORNING
GUIDANCE TREND UPWARDS, LATER SHIFTS COULD UPGRADE THE SPS TO A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE SPS-OUTLINED AREAS. ADDITIONAL
SPSS ARE LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DAILY AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
OF AROUND 105 TO 111+ F RESULT IN MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISKS.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, PERHAPS
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN PULSES OF GULF MOISTURE COULD LEAD
TO MAINLY MAJOR HEAT RISKS WITH POTENTIAL POCKETS OF EXTREME HEAT
RISKS.
IN REGARDS TO THE TROPICS AND AS OF THE 10 PM CDT TROPICAL UPDATE,
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH. THE NHC
CONTINUES TO PROJECT BERTHA MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK, BRINGING THE MOST DIRECT IMPACTS TO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA/COAST INTO THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK AND SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS/UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE
STILL EXISTS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDES OF BOTH THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE WEEK, COULD DISPLACE
SOME OR MOST OF BERTHA'S TROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
SOUTHWESTWARD, BRINGING A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG/EAST OF
US-281/I-69 C DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS,
INCREASING TO A REGION-WIDE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE THURSDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS, WHERE THE LATEST 50TH AND 75TH GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
PERCENTILES INDICATE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO AS MUCH AS A FEW
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH IS MORE OR LESS
IN ALIGNMENT WITH OUR FORECAST OF AROUND 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH, WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH LOW CHANCES
OF RAIN COULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY MAJOR HEAT RISK ON THURSDAY AS WELL
AS ON FRIDAY DUE TO LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. YET, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, THE
FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS OR MORE.
A LOW RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, POTENTIAL LONG PERIOD
SWELL AND PERHAPS ELEVATED SURF, GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM BERTHA,
COULD ARRIVE TO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK;
ELEVATED RISKS OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, HIGHER SURF AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY LEAD TO MORE DANGEROUS
BEACH AND SWIMMING CONDITIONS, DESPITE THE INVITING GULF APPEARANCE
AMIDST SWELTERING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS DURING
THE DAYTIME AND LIGHTER WINDS AT NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, OCCASIONALLY FRESH, WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4 FT) SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE TO MOSTLY
MODERATE TO FRESH, STRONG AT TIMES, WITH MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS BY
FRIDAY. PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE MOST DIRECT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA, MOVING
WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH, SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEAS FROM ASSOCIATED SWELL
COULD ARRIVE TO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS WEEK
AND/OR THIS WEEKEND. LOW (15-30%) CHANCES OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
COULD INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE BY
THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. YET, DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINING, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24-
28+ HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 101 79 97 80 / 0 0 20 10
HARLINGEN 106 76 100 77 / 0 0 20 20
MCALLEN 108 79 104 80 / 0 0 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 108 79 103 80 / 0 0 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 80 88 81 / 0 0 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 99 78 95 79 / 0 0 30 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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