449
FXUS64 KBRO 141155 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
555 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS
DRY AIR INTO NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
MONITORED.
- A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MID SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID TO LOWER RGV.
- ADVERSE BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, INCLUDING AN INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
WAYWARD CONVECTION OFF THE SIERRA MADRE IS WORKING TOWARD THE
BRUSH COUNTRY, LIKELY PUTTING ON A DECENT LIGHT SHOW WEST OF
ZAPATA COUNTY. IF ANYTHING MAKES IT OVER THE BORDER, EXPECT IT TO
BE LIGHT AND CONTINUING TO FALL APART.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO A PASSING SHORTWAVE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALL GENERALLY MAINTAIN A DRY
AND COMFORTABLE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ABOVE TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL LOWS DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL
LOWS MONDAY MORNING.
A LLJ AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE MID TO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON SATURDAY
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD HEAT FOR MFE IN THE
LOW 90S. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS UP WITH CONSSHORT AND THEN BUMPED
GUSTS UP EACH HOUR MID-MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON AND STILL FALL SHY
OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. THE NEXT SOUNDING WILL
HELP DETERMINE ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN BRIEFLY INCREASES, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
RANCHLANDS AND NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WORKS OFFSHORE AND
SURFACE FRONT ARRIVES. SPC HAS CONTINUED A MRGL TO SLGT OUTLOOK
ACROSS NORTH AND EAST TEXAS DOWN TO THE COASTAL BEND, WITH A SHARP
CUTOFF ACROSS KENEDY COUNTY FOR GENERAL THUNDER. MOST 00Z CAMS
KEEP MOST OF ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF CRP AS WELL, WITH ONE OR TWO
CELLS BRIEFLY FALLING SOUTHEAST AND QUICKLY OFFSHORE WITH THE
FRONT.
DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SETS UP A LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR
SUNDAY WITH 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS CURRENTLY FALLING SHORT OF ANY
FIRE DANGER CRITERIA. DAILY RH VALUES BELOW 30-35 PERCENT ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MOST AREAS UNDER ONGOING
EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
MODERATE TO GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY AT HRL. BRO VAD WINDS
AND RECENT SOUNDING DATA INDICATE WINDS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KNOTS
AROUND 2K FT. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT HRL AND
BRO. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
AND MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z, ESPECIALLY AT BRO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST, DRIVING ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS WATERS MAINLY NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD AND SCEC TO SCA
CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
REMAIN RATHER FAIR THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 83 63 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 87 58 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 92 62 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 92 58 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 64 74 63 / 10 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 61 82 57 / 10 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ251-254-255-351-354-355.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...63-KC
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