695
FXUS64 KBRO 071814
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
114 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 106 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
* HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF
4) HEAT RISK EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE VALLEY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100
AND 110 DEGREES EACH DAY.
* DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW (GENERALLY UNDER 20%)
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BEFORE INCREASING ON FRIDAY.
* THERE IS GENERALLY A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
LIKELY INCREASING TO MODERATE LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWESTWARD AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S. HAS LED TO A BIT
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WHILE RAIN
CHANCES OVERALL WILL REMAIN LOW (20% OR LESS) OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL ALLOW ANY THUNDERSTORM OR SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
AREAS OF PONDING OF WATER OF ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.
LATE WEEK, MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (20-30%).
THE HIGH PWATS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED
AREAS OF PONDING OF WATER. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURE WISE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN.
ANY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HELP COOL THINGS
OFF AND LOWER THE HEAT RISK AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECTING
GENERALLY MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY HEADED
INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES EACH DAY.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH COULD
INCREASE TO MODERATE BY THINS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS
BRIEFLY AFFECTING ANY OF THE AERODROMES THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITONS WILL PREVAIL ON THE WATERS OFF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST. GENERALLY SEAS OF 2-3 FEET INCREASING TO 4 FEET OVER
THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED WITH 5 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 94 79 93 / 0 10 10 20
HARLINGEN 77 96 75 94 / 0 10 10 10
MCALLEN 79 99 78 97 / 0 20 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 99 76 98 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 87 / 0 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 78 91 / 0 10 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...68
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