244
FXUS64 KBRO 230528 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR-TO-ABOVE AVERAGE OVERNIGHT
LOWS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES AS WINDS INCREASE.
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STALL ACROSS, OR PASS THROUGH, OUR
REGION NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH COULD COOL TEMPERATURES TO NEAR
AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN US THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TO WESTERN TEXAS, LEADING TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF MAINTAINS MOSTLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRAVERSING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS INCREASING TO 25-30 MPH, OR GREATER, BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY, FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS
ARE LIKELY TO BE AVOIDED ON MONDAY DUE TO BORDERLINE-TO-LOW 20 FOOT
WINDS SPEEDS AND ONSHORE EASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ELEVATE TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES COINCIDE WITH INCREASINGLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST INLAND COUNTIES (KENEDY, WILLACY
AND CAMERON) ON THURSDAY. IT IS HIGHLY URGED TO REFRAIN FROM OUTDOOR
BURNING DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CURED FUELS ACROSS OUR DROUGHT-STICKEN
REGION. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY, LIKELY RISING FROM MAINLY THE LOWER 90S ON
MONDAY TO MOSTLY LOW-TO-MID 90S TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE REACHING
THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EACH
NIGHT PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, MAINTAINING NEAR TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS, IN THE 60S INLAND AND LOW 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE ONLY CHANGES TO THIS PATTERN IS A VERY LOW (LESS THAN 15%)
CHANCE OF RAIN FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE RGV ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER EASTERN TEXAS. LATER IN THE WEEK, A BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS, BEHIND A
DEPARTING STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PUSH THE LOW'S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF TEXAS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE FRONT LOSING MOMENTUM AS IT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH. THE FRONT MAY PASS THE REGION, POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY, SHIFTING WINDS FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A LOW (AT MOST, 15%) CHANCE OF RAIN ON
SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE, DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MAXIMIZING IN THE 80S
AND MINIMIZING IN THE 50S/60S.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH
IS LIKELY TO ELEVATE INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-3 FEET) SEAS. A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, LEADING TO MODERATE TO
FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, MODERATE (3-4 FEET) SEAS AND POSSIBLE
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RESUME BY
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. THERE IS A LOW (15%) CHANCE OF
RAIN ON SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 86 66 87 68 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 89 63 90 64 / 0 0 10 0
MCALLEN 92 67 94 69 / 0 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 92 63 93 65 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 69 77 70 / 0 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 65 84 66 / 0 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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