813
FXUS64 KBRO 271128 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
528 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ALTHOUGH LIMITED, THERE IS SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE MIDDLE/UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE BRUSH COUNTRY
BEGINNING THIS SATURDAY, AS BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS RETURN.
- THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS FROM NEXT MONDAY OR
TUESDAY INTO THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ENHANCE
FURTHER.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, MAXIMIZING IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW/MID 90S DURING THE DAY, FALLING TO THE 60S OVERNIGHT.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO NEXT
TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND OUR REGION INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. TROUGHING
FOLLOWS INTO WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD, BUT AT THIS TIME, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. IN THE MEANTIME, A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING, BECOMING EASTERLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING, REMAINING LIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN BY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OVER THE
REGION, MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADS TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ALONG/EAST OF US-281, WHERE GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20-25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY, RISING FROM THE 80S ON FRIDAY TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S NEAR/EAST OF US-281 AND LOW/MID 90S FURTHER WEST BY
SATURDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE TO THE LOW/MID 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LOWER TEXAS COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
AS WELL, FALLING TO THE 60S.
AS BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN BY SATURDAY, THERE IS
SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK,
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AS
WELL AS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, WHERE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DECREASE TO AS LOW AS AROUND 30-35 PERCENT
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, 20 FOOT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
JUST SHY OF FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS (RFDS) UNTIL NEXT MONDAY OR
TUESDAY, WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEADS TO 20 FOOT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25-30
MPH, OR GREATER, DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. REGARDLESS, IT IS
HIGHLY URGED TO REFRAIN FROM OUTDOOR BURNING AND BE VERY CAUTIOUS OF
FLAMES AS FREEZE-CURED FUELS REMAIN ABUNDANT WITHIN OUR DROUGHT-
STRICKEN REGION.
A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR
TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES INTO TONIGHT. FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORIES, AWWS, OR
LIFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH, ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO BECOME SLIGHT (1-2 FEET)
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT
RAIN FRIDAY MORNING. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-3 FEET) SEAS RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADS TO MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (3-5 FEET) SEAS.
TROUGHING NEAR THE COAST MAY LEAD TO A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 83 65 83 66 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 84 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 88 65 91 66 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 88 63 90 64 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 67 75 68 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 63 80 64 / 10 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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