626
FXUS64 KBRO 271839
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
139 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HEAT INDICES
OF 110+ DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
- A WETTER PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD 60-80% RAIN CHANCES.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT (LEVELS 1 AND 2 OUT OF 4) RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SEPTEMBER WILL CLOSE OUT HOT AND MOSTLY DRY AS RIDGING IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS REMAINS DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING.
A TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL INGEST TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC AS IT DIGS INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS WEEK,
BRINGING ALONG WITH IT A COLD FRONT. MIDWEEK, THE FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO STALL OVER CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH PULLING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. PWAT VALUES IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COULD
RANGE FROM 2.3-2.6", NEARING CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM VALUES FOR
EARLY OCTOBER. MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST HEAVY RAINFALL
IN TEXAS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, BEING OVER 3
DAYS OUT FROM THE ONSET OF ANY EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER DEEP S TX,
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AXIS OF RAINFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST TO THE NORTH OF DEEP S TX, BUT THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.
FOR DEEP S TX, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS COULD COME AS EARLY AS LATE
WEDNESDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH POPS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY BRING
VERY WELCOME RAIN WE'VE BEEN MISSING, BUT TRAINING OR HEAVY
SHOWERS/STORMS CAN LEAD TO FLOODING IN LOW LYING, POOR DRAINAGE,
AND URBAN AREAS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE
REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) WEDNESDAY, AND A SLIGHT
RISK (2 OF 4) THURSDAY OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING.
HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK, INCREASING AS MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SPSS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 111 DEGF ARE POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES, BUT IT WILL STILL BE
WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS LATER THIS WEEK IN THE 90S.
LOCAL BEACHES REMAIN PLEASANT EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT WILL DEGRADE AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AN INCREASED RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS IS LIKELY, AND INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS MAY LEAD TO CONCERNS
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
EAST. THERE IS A LOW (LESS THAN 30%) CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT
HRL AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DEGRADE CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT. LOW
RAIN CHANCES (20% OR LESS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, INCREASING
TUESDAY ONWARDS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO LOW-MODERATE (30%) THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, FURTHER INCREASING TO MODERATE-HIGH (60-80%) THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECT
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 96 80 97 / 0 30 30 20
HARLINGEN 74 99 76 100 / 0 10 20 30
MCALLEN 78 102 80 102 / 0 10 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 82 90 / 0 20 30 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 94 79 95 / 0 10 20 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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