824
FXUS64 KBRO 101827
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
127 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
BETTER CHANCE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
* THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL LATE TONIGHT.
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THE MORNING SOUNDING AT BRO SHOWED PWAT AT 1.86 INCHES, ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY TO MID MAY, MEANING THERE REMAINS AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE PERSISTENT MVFR
CLOUD DECK THIS MORNING HELPS CONFIRM THIS AS WELL. THERE IS
PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND WITH A
CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 91, AND NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ROAMING AROUND,
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP ACROSS TYPICAL SEA BREEZE LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON, WORKING GENERALLY INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CAMS
ARE AGAIN WIDELY VARIED ON CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT TIMING AND
LOCATION, BUT ALL DEVELOP SOMETHING, LENDING CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN CAN PEEK OUT
CONSISTENTLY THIS AFTERNOON.
A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM UP NORTH IS WORKING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT. ANY SIERRA
MADRE CONVECTION COULD PAIR WITH THIS FRONT OR BRING A COUPLE OF
STORMS INTO ZAPATA COUNTY THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD OF IT. SPC HAS
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT, BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHAT HAPPENS UPSTREAM. WPC IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTING ZAPATA, JIM HOGG,
STARR, AND WESTERN HIDALGO COUNTIES WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT, MEANING ANY
PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE A FLOODING RAIN
THREAT.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER ON SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, IF ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF
A WIND THREAT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEY, IF ANYTHING IS STILL HANGING TOUGH BY THEN.
THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT DRIES OUT AND GRADUALLY WARMS UP INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL
INTO EARLY THIS WEEK AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE HELD ON A BIT INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BREAK TO VFR BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY JUST NORTH OF THE RGV AERODROMES, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT,
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERNS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS BRIEFLY ELEVATES SEAS AND WINDS, BEFORE
MORE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN MID WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, WITH
DRIER AND MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 87 74 87 / 40 30 0 0
HARLINGEN 74 86 70 86 / 50 30 0 0
MCALLEN 76 88 73 88 / 50 40 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 87 72 88 / 60 40 20 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 82 77 81 / 40 20 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 86 74 85 / 50 30 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page