925
FXUS64 KBRO 191828
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
128 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 107 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* DAILY RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
* HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH A MODERATE
TO MAJOR HEAT RISK TODAY AND TOMORROW.
* A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WILL FEATURE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS TRACKING OVER THE REGION.
AT THE SURFACE, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND POOL AHEAD OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL TEXAS. COMBINED, THIS WILL
LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WILL
REMAIN EXTREMELY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA AT 1.75-2.5 INCHES THROUGH
THE WEEK, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL, SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
TONIGHT, THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL OF 1 OF 5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE REGION AND MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THIS LINE HOLDS TOGETHER
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND IS SEVERE, THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, THOUGH WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ZAPATA, JIM HOGG,
WESTERN STARR AND NORTHWESTERN BROOKS COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY, AND ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. NOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTING GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY SEE HIGHER TOTALS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM/RAIN CHANCES, HEAT WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL
WEATHER HEADLINE THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK TODAY
AN TOMORROW WITH A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY.
AT AREA BEACHES, THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BRO AND MFE THERE COULD BE A
MIX WITH MVFR BEFORE ALL AERODROMES FALL TO MVFR THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. WE ARE CONTINUING TO
WATCH FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT THOUGH THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
AND WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH, THEREFORE
HAVE NOT INTRODUCED AND TS IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. IF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH COULD SEE SOME BRIEF
IFR/LIFR, MOST LIKELY NEAR DAYBREAK. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
LOWER VISIBILITY NEAR DAYBREAK REGARDLESS OF PRECIP BUT STAY
WITHIN MVFR GUIDELINES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SLIGHTLY ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 92 80 91 / 10 10 10 30
HARLINGEN 78 92 76 92 / 20 10 10 40
MCALLEN 79 94 78 92 / 30 20 20 50
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 94 75 93 / 40 40 40 50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 85 81 85 / 20 10 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 90 79 90 / 20 10 10 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...68
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