891
FXUS64 KBRO 112305
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
605 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 603 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DROP
FROM A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) TODAY TO A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE
TOMORROW AND MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOWER (AT MOST 15%) CHANCES.
- HEAVY RAIN CREATING MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF
100-110 F MAINTAIN MOSTLY MODERATE HEAT RISKS (LEVEL 2 OF 4).
- A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS PREVAILS THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THE INVERTED TROUGH ALOFT THAT BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL OUT OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
FROM EAST TO WEST INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
EXPANDS ACROSS THE GULF. IN THE MEANTIME, DEEP TROPICAL GULF
MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES > 2 IN.) AND WEAK FORCING HAVE ALREADY LED
TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN I-69 E
AND US-281, PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, A FEW GUSTIER WINDS
AS WELL AS HAVE DROPPED AROUND 1.0 TO 2.0 INCHES IN SPOTS OF
KENEDY COUNTY. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING
WEST ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY, INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
FURTHER INLAND TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE, HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND NORTHERN ZAPATA COUNTY. THE RRFS AND A
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR THIS MORNING HAVE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME TRAINING OF CELLS ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER, PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS PORTIONS OF STARR COUNTY FROM THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. SHOULD THIS BE REALIZED,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN 1.0-1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
LOCATIONS OVER THESE AREAS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITHIN THE DEEPEST OF CONVECTION.
FOLLOWING, SUBSIDENCE ENHANCES A BIT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER ALOFT, CUTTING CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
DOWN TO A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE TOMORROW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS, EXPANDING TO MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY; MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COULD
STILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EARLY PARTS
OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, GUSTING TO 20-25+
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, CONTINUE ADVECTING INLAND PULSES OF DEEPER,
GULF MOISTURE. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN ADDITION TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. OTHERWISE, DRIER LOWER/MID LEVELS KEEPS CHANCES OF RAIN
AROUND 10% OR LESS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AT THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 90S
INLAND CONTINUE, PEAKING AS HIGH AS NEAR 100 F FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE RGV AND POINTS WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH DRIER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY EASE OFF AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FROM
105-110 F TO 100-105 F BY TUESDAY, MAINLY MODERATE HEAT RISKS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S AS WELL AS LOWER 80S ALONG/NEAR THE COAST CONTINUE.
A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK
UP BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE, RANGING FROM MODERATE TO FRESH
DURING THE DAY AND GENTLE TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MAINLY
MODERATE (3-6 FT) SEAS. PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE LATER
IN THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS A FETCH OF HEIGHTENED SEAS FROM A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF COULD RESULT IN 6-7 FT
SEAS. LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES OF RAIN DROP OFF TO A LOW
(15-30%) CHANCE BY MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 94 80 94 / 10 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 77 94 77 95 / 0 10 10 20
MCALLEN 79 98 79 98 / 0 10 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 98 77 99 / 30 10 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 10 10 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 79 92 / 0 10 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...68
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