094
FXUS64 KBRO 070446
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1046 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
RECORDS TO BE BROKEN, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT LATE WEEK WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED MOISTURE
CONTENT AND LOW WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS FAVORABLE TONIGHT
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS LAST NIGHT WITH NBM PROBABILITY OF GENERALLY
20 TO 40% THAT VISIBILITY WILL FALL BELOW 5 MILES.
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE SW AND
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LEADING
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION, AROUND 20-30%, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EVEN WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ELEVATED WINDS AND CONTINUED ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE FALLEN TO MVFR AT BRO AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AT
HRL AND MFE WITH VFR RETURNING BY MID-MORNING. PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO BRIEF LOWER VISIBILITIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION NEEDED ON THE WATERS OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN, AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 67 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 63 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 67 88 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 63 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 78 71 79 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 83 68 84 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...68-MCGINNIS
LONG TERM....68-MCGINNIS
AVIATION...68-MCGINNIS
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