485
FXUS64 KBRO 181754
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1254 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL BRING MODERATE TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE (40-50%) PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
* MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN, BUT
SOME AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
* TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 15-30 DEGREES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
* A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
ELEVATED SURF AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
SUNDAY MORNING STARTING AT 11Z.
* A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 06Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 03Z MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND DRY FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS START MOVING INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING JUST
OFFSHORE. THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND A FEW DAYS,
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH AND STALLING OVER
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
TO HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH
THE REGION, WITH CHANCES RANGING BETWEEN 60 TO 85%. DESPITE
TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER THAT PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED, SUNDAY'S
RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL MODERATE TO HIGH (60 TO 70%). THIS
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, UNTIL CHANCES START TO DECREASE ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT (40 TO 50%) AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THE COASTAL LOW START TO DIMINISH. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES FOR MOST PLACES, WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING CLOSER TO
3 TO 4 INCHES IN AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL. DUE TO THE
UNUSUALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY, AND PARTS OF WILLACY, BROOKS, AND
KENEDY COUNTIES FOR MONDAY. THOUGH MOST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE
BENEFICIAL, THERE IS BE A SMALL (5%) CHANCE FOR NUISANCE AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UNSEASONABLY
COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY
TUESDAY. MOST AREAS WEST OF I-69C WILL STAY BELOW 70 DEGREES FOR
SUNDAY, BUT AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE MID-70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RETREATS TO THE NORTH, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
SEASONAL LEVELS AGAIN BY TUESDAY. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS COLD FRONT,
INCLUDING LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED SURF, AS WELL
AS SOME POTENTIAL BEACH RUN-UP NEAR HIGH TIDE CYCLES, AS
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THIS
REASON, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAVE
BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT 11Z TOMORROW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT ALL AIRPORTS. HOWEVER, A NORTHERLY
WIND DIRECTION SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT AT 04/06Z, AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
AND IFR. LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
STARTING THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT, SCEC CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN
THE BAY AND THE GULF WATERS AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
THIS EVENING BEFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY 06Z SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT STARTING
AT 06Z OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD LAST UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE, SCEC CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 66 75 66 78 / 70 70 80 70
HARLINGEN 63 73 62 78 / 60 70 70 70
MCALLEN 63 70 62 77 / 80 70 80 60
RIO GRANDE CITY 59 66 58 74 / 80 70 70 60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 75 70 76 / 70 70 80 70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 75 65 79 / 60 70 70 70
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-
454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ130-
132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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