102
FXUS64 KBRO 092316
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
616 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS SURF, LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS, AND ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
BEACHES AND GULF WATERS.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- MOSTLY MINOR RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) BECOME
MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) BY NEXT MONDAY AS DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE LOCAL COASTAL IMPACTS FROM
HURRICANE ISAIAS. HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF
CONDITIONS LEADING TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE PUSH
OF WATER ALONG THE COAST FROM ISAIAS ALONG WITH A NEW MOON WILL
LEAD TO HIGHER TIDES AND THUS A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREA BEACHES UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN, ACROSS THE
REGION OUTSIDE A STRAY SEA BREEZE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO TEXAS MIDWEEK AND
LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 90S
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD BUT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO 100-110
DEGREES EACH DAY BEGINNING MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH TO EAST OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KTS
SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS HAS CAUSED SEAS AND SWELL TO BUILD ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS COASTAL WATERS
INTO SATURDAY, AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED, MAINLY ON THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 74 91 78 91 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 69 93 73 93 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 71 95 77 95 / 0 10 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 69 93 74 94 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 86 81 87 / 0 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 89 77 89 / 0 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
SHORT TERM...68-AM
LONG TERM....68-AM
AVIATION...69-HK
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