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FXUS64 KBRO 020639
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
139 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 133 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A MULTI-DAY RAINFALL EVENT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LATEST RADAR ESTIMATES DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA, WITH ESTIMATES
OF 6-8 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN STARR COUNTY TODAY. THESE PORTIONS
OF STARR, HIDALGO, BROOKS, JIM HOGG, AND KENEDY COUNTIES WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING OVER THE COMING DAYS.
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY LINGER OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY
STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTIVE MODELS DEPICT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BY MID
MORNING, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FRIDAY WILL MOST LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-69C/US-281, WITH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES
FORECAST, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP AS SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
THOUGH SOME HEAVIER BANDS MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
WIDESPREAD DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE COAST,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL TROUGHING OR A COASTAL LOW TO
DEVELOP OFF SHORE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAKENING, RESULTING IN ONLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN VFR FOR BRO/HRL TODAY, BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY INCREASING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 77 91 76 / 60 60 80 80
HARLINGEN 95 74 92 72 / 60 60 80 80
MCALLEN 94 76 92 76 / 70 90 80 80
RIO GRANDE CITY 90 74 89 73 / 70 80 80 90
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 87 79 / 50 70 90 80
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 76 90 76 / 50 70 90 80
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...99
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