233
FXUS64 KBRO 281801
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1201 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
- ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A PATTERN OF SUNNY SKIES, HOT
TEMPERATURES, AND GENERALLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOMING BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL US MID-WEEK WILL
LIKELY TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10% FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS DRY CONDITIONS COULD POSE SOME
CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. 20 FT WINDS COULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED 15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON, WITH GREATER
PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 30-40% EACH AFTERNOON. FIRE
DANGER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEGINNING
AROUND MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO LIFT AND CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST LOOK TO TIGHTEN MID WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAGUNA MADRE
AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS. ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, POSSIBLY REQUIRING
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES DAILY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 66 83 66 84 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 62 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 67 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 65 91 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 76 68 77 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 81 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60-BE
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