588
FXUS64 KBRO 132323 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
623 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 619 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS (RFDS) POSSIBLE BEGINNING TOMORROW.
- NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR 100 POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF
POTENTIAL RED FLAG WARNINGS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT, PASSING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, ADVECTS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR VIA
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE COULD BE A WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WELL.
- TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW AVERAGE ON MONDAY BUT WARM BACK TO ABOVE
AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OR LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
BY SUNDAY MORNING, A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES A DIGGING
TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHERE A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE
EXPTECTED TO DEVELOP. PRESSURE FALLS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF LEAD TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. BEGINNING
TOMORROW, FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS (RFDS) ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG/EAST OF US-281 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS MINIMIZING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COINCIDE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH ON SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 30-35
MPH, OR HIGHER, ON SUNDAY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED THIS
WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY WHEN NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND/OR A DRY LINE FURTHER LOWERS RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
YET, THE BIGGER FIRE WEATHER CONCERN MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. AT THIS
TIME, THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, POSSIBLY BY MONDAY
MORNING, AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS (POTENTIALLY GUSTING UP TO
30-40 MPH, OR HIGHER) IN WAKE OF THE FRONT RESULT IN CRASHING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF POTENTIAL RED FLAG
WARNINGS ON MONDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS WELL. THE LATEST GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST PWAT VALUES MINIMIZING AS LOW AS AROUND 0.30-0.50 IN.
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE LOWEST 10TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. EVEN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO ELEVATE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN EACH AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL RFDS POSSIBLE AS RIDGING
PERSISTS OVERHEAD. CONSIDERING THAT OUR REGION REMAINS IN A D2-D4
(SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT WITH ABUNDANT CURED FUELS, OUTDOOR
BURNING CONTINUES TO BE NOT ADVISED.
A WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARMS HIGHS (LOWS) FROM MAINLY
THE 80S (50S/60S) TODAY (TONIGHT) TO 80S/90S (60S) TOMORROW
(TOMORROW NIGHT), WHICH IS NEAR 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. AS
DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OCCURS ON SUNDAY, HIGHS
COULD SOAR INTO THE 90S ACROSS ALL OF INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS,
POSSIBLY REACHING 100 DEGREES IN AREAS ALONG/WEST OF US-281, WHICH
IS NEAR 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. ALTHOUGH WE CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES REACHING AROUND 5 DEGREES SHY OF RECORD-
BREAKING, RECORD TYING OR RECORD BREAKING HEAT STILL REMAINS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, HIGHS COULD
DROP 20-30 DEGREES, ONLY RISING INTO THE 60S DURING THE DAY MONDAY
AND FALLING TO THE 40S/50S MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS AROUND 10-15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. YET, THE RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OR LATER
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PREVAILS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS INCREASING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
(2-3 FEET) SEAS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, INCREASING TO MODERATE TO
FRESH WITH MODERATE (3-4 FEET) SEAS TOMORROW AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ENHANCES SEAS TO
3-5 FEET. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN NEAR
GALE TO POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ON
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS RETURNING
INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-60%) CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 63 86 69 89 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 59 90 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 64 93 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 59 95 65 100 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 78 71 81 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 85 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...60-BE
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