153
FXUS64 KBRO 011815
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
115 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES, NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING, ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
- ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DURING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
IT MAY BE THE FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL FALL, BUT THE
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE HERE TO
STAY… AT LEAST THROUGH MID SEPTEMBER. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT, MAINTAINING THE
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS HEADING INTO
LABOR DAY. EXPECT DAILY HIGHS RANGING FROM 100-108 DEGREES, WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE
COAST. THIS IS AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HUMIDITY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 105-112 DEGREES. THERE ALSO WON’T BE
MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AT NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ALL IN ALL, THIS WILL RESULT IN
A MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK ACROSS
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE HEADING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND,
BUT THERE MAY BE A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION BEGINNING SATURDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 20% OR
LESS) ARE CONFINED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US-281 THIS WEEKEND
AND LABOR DAY. TAKING A LOOK AT SOME LABOR DAY CLIMATOLOGY
STATISTICS, THE CHANCE OF RECEIVING AT GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO
0.01 INCHES OF RAIN ON LABOR DAY IS 33% FOR BROWNSVILLE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, 45% FOR HARLINGEN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT,
AND 25% FOR MCALLEN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. WE’LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN
GET!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 5-10
KNOTS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. INTERMITTENT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
NEARSHORE GULF WATERS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY OVER THE GULF WATERS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SEPTEMBER. HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORDS FOR
BROWNSVILLE, HARLINGEN, AND MCALLEN THROUGH THIS FRIDAY.
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 1
BROWNSVILLE: 100F (2023, 2020)
HARLINGEN: 103F (1928, 1952)
MCALLEN: 106F (2018)
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2
BROWNSVILLE: 99F (2018)
HARLINGEN: 104F (1928, 1937)
MCALLEN: 106F (2018)
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3
BROWNSVILLE: 102F (2011)
HARLINGEN: 106F (2011)
MCALLEN: 106F (2011)
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
BROWNSVILLE: 103F (2011, 2000)
HARLINGEN: 107F (2011)
MCALLEN: 108F (2011)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 99 81 99 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 77 103 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 81 105 81 104 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 106 79 105 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 90 82 90 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 97 80 97 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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