673
FXUS64 KBRO 161116 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
616 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
HIDALGO COUNTY AS WELL AS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF CAMERON,
WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES ON SUNDAY, WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE
LIKELY TO REACH AROUND 108-111 F FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
- A MOSTLY MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS (LEVEL 2/4)
ESCALATES TO A MOSTLY MAJOR RISK (LEVEL 3/4) BY NEXT THURSDAY.
- CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, EXCEPT FOR A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR THE LOWER AND MID RGV ON MONDAY.
- THE COMBINATION OF LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY COINCIDING
WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS LEADS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
A RATHER ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY, MIGRATING TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE EARLY
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH PASSING OVER
THE REGION ON MONDAY, BRINGING A DAYTIME LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE LOWER AND MID RGV, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON, ELEVATED
SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD OTHERWISE MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
IN THE MEANTIME, A SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY IN
ADDITION TO THE INLAND PORTIONS OF CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY
COUNTIES ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LEADS
TO HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 108-111 F, GENERALLY WITHIN THE HOURS OF
12 PM TO 6 PM. OTHERWISE, FLATTENING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE'S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE ALOFT IS LIKELY TO LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
JUST A BIT, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20-30
MPH (AS OPPOSED TO 25-35+ MPH THIS PAST WEEK); THIS SHOULD HELP
RETREAT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 100S TO ALONG/WEST US-281/I-69 C,
WARMEST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 105-110+ F ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MAINLY MODERATE RISKS OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES (HEAT RISKS) INTO NEXT TUESDAY, THOUGH MORE
URBAN AREAS OF THE RGV AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAY REMAIN AT A MAJOR
RISK.
DESPITE SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW, MUCH DRIER MOISTURE CONTENT
FROM SINKING AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO ALLOW NEARLY
WIDESPREAD LOW/MID 100S TO RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY, WARMING BY A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HEAT RISKS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO WORSEN FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR ON WEDNESDAY TO MOSTLY MAJOR BY
THURSDAY AS ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RE-ENHANCE IN RESPONSE TO A
A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE PLAINS, THUS
ELEVATING MOISTURE AND PWAT VALUES SLIGHTLY, THOUGH STILL REMAINING
DRIER TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS, THE COMBINATION
OF LOWER AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, MINIMIZING AROUND
20-50 PERCENT, COINCIDING WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS, CONTINUES
TO POSE A RISK OF FIRE WEATHER AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ARE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
TRENDS, ADDITIONAL SPSS FOR 108-111 F HEAT INDICES MAY BE ISSUED AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BECOME MODERATE FOR
THE DAYTIME WITH BREEZY GUSTS. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OR
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS (2-4 FT) BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY,
ENHANCING BACK TO MODERATE TO FRESH WITH PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS AND MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE ON
MONDAY, CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THOUGH A
BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 96 80 96 80 / 0 10 20 0
HARLINGEN 99 76 99 76 / 0 0 20 0
MCALLEN 103 80 102 79 / 10 0 30 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 103 78 102 77 / 0 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 89 81 / 0 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 79 94 78 / 0 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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