149
FXUS64 KBRO 211147 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
647 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 636 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- SUSTAINED DAILY OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
- CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES, BUT NO EXTREMES.
- ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH, POSITIONED
GENERALLY OVER EAST TEXAS, WILL PRODUCE A MORE EASTERLY AND MOIST
FLOW OFF OF THE NEIGHBORING GULF OF AMERICA, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HOVERING NEAR 2 INCHES. THIS WILL HAVE THE RESULT OF
ENHANCING THE DAILY SEABREEZE BOUNDARY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BRO CWFA. AT THIS TIME, THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND EASTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WILL
OCCUR, DESPITE THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX OFFICIALLY KICKING-OFF ON
TUESDAY 22 SEPTEMBER AT 7:04 PM CDT.
FINALLY, WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE A
LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, WITH IMPACTS MOST LIKELY AT MFE.
HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, MOVING INTO THE VICINITY OF MFE BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTION AT BRO AND HRL REMAIN
TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO MOVE OVER AN AIRFIELD WILL
LIKELY BE BRIEF, BUT MAY PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASING OUT OF THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 96 80 95 80 / 20 10 40 10
HARLINGEN 99 76 98 76 / 20 10 40 10
MCALLEN 102 79 100 79 / 30 0 50 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 102 78 99 77 / 10 0 40 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 89 83 / 10 10 30 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 79 94 79 / 20 20 30 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...60-BE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page