694
FXUS64 KBRO 192234 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
534 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- DAILY LOW MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN NEXT MONDAY AND BECOME
REGION-WIDE BY NEXT TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM BUT EASE OFF A FEW DEGREES FROM WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF LOW 100S ALONG/WEST I-69 E TO MOSTLY UPPER 90S BY
TUESDAY.
- EXTREME RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 4/4) ARE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE RGV/RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHILE
THE REST OF THE REGION EXPERIENCES MODERATE TO MAJOR RISKS
(LEVEL 2/4 AND 3/4).
- A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALOFT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WHICH WILL HELP SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE WE COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND, WILL BE LIMITED TO 15% AND BE MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE. AS WE HEAD INTO TO LATE WEEK
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST WHICH HELP TO
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON. BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY (UP UP 60%), PRIMARILY ALONG THE
COAST INTO THE MID-VALLEY.
HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO EXTREME OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND/OR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING A
LITTLE RELIEF. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO MID
TO UPPER 90S TO LOW TRIPLE DIGITS THOUGH BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH THE EXCESS
CLOUDCOVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK EACH AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. THE
STRONGEST AND MOST LIFE THREATENING RIPS CURRENTS OFTEN OCCUR NEAR
JETTIES AND PIERS. USE CAUTION IF ENTERING THE WATER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
FAIR WEATHER AND EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS...OUTSIDE OF THE
USUAL AFTERNOON THERMALS FOR SMALLER AIRCRAFT...IS THE STORY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A QUIET EVENING ON TAP WITH THE
USUAL EARLY EVENING GUSTY EASTERLIES SETTLING DOWN TO NEAR-CALM
CONDITIONS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...SAVE FOR PASSING FEW-
SCATTERED MVFR FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.
FOR SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD WITH GULF AND NORTHEAST
MEXICO TOWERING CU AND A FEW CUMULONIMBUS...BUT THE AERODROMES
SHOULD BE FREE OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS TO START ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, EXPECT A PERIOD OF CUMULUS
CONGESTUS AT BROWNSVILLE AND HARLINGEN BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
CONTINUING THROUGH NOON OR SO BEFORE THE CUMULUS FLATTENS AND
PUSHES INLAND WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER 2-3 PM. MCALLEN WILL
START CLEAR AND CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND NOON BEFORE VFR SCATTERED
CUMULUS ARRIVES, THEN LIFTS FURTHER WITH ANOTHER 100 DEGREE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE, RELATIVELY COPACETIC, TO ARRIVE
AROUND 19Z IN BROWNSVILLE, 20Z IN HARLINGEN, AND 22/23Z IN
MCALLEN...WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KNOTS IN WELL-MIXED AIR
AT MCALLEN JUST BEFORE SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT AND 6-7 SECOND
PERIODS. DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 97 79 96 / 0 10 10 30
HARLINGEN 74 100 75 100 / 0 10 0 20
MCALLEN 78 102 79 102 / 0 0 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 102 77 102 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 82 90 / 0 10 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 95 78 95 / 0 10 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...68-AM
LONG TERM....68-AM
AVIATION UPDATE...52-GOLDSMITH
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