299
FXUS64 KBRO 310529 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1229 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
* SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND A MOSTLY MINOR HEAT RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) AS AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.
* BUILDING MOISTURE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FURTHER ELEVATE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100-105 F EARLY NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN A MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK ON
MONDAY.
* CLOUDS BUILD AND AT LEAST A DAILY LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN
ARRIVES BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUILDING TO AS MUCH AS A LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-50%) TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
TEMPORARILY COOL TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES.
* CHANCES OF RAIN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER NEXT WEEK, THUS
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND BUILDING HEAT RISKS AGAIN INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
* LOW RISKS OF RIP CURRENTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STEADILY INCREASE TO
A MEDIUM OR A HIGH RISK THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR THE 7 DAY FORECAST ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAINTAINS CONTROL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MAXIMIZING IN THE LOW/MID 90S INTO
THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND, A MOSTLY
MINOR HEAT RISK IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CWA, WITH HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 95-100 F OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WHILE PEAKING IN THE LOWER 100S ACROSS THE RGV AND
COASTAL PLAINS, WHERE SOME AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE A MODERATE HEAT
RISK. MEANWHILE, A PERSISTENT AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE MAINTAINS A STEADY STREAM OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION VIA SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS, SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT, WITH PWAT VALUES SURPASSING
2.0 IN. NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS MOISTURE BUILDS, HEAT INDICES
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY, WITH A MINOR
TO MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS APPARENT
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT AROUND 100-105 F, POSSIBLY WARMER IN A FEW
SPOTS IN THE RGV.
LIFT AND WINDS OVER THE GULF ENHANCE AND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING
ACROSS THE COASTAL DEEP SOUTH WHILE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SLOWLY DECLINE. BEGINNING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON, PULSES OF
GULF MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO BRING AT LEAST A DAILY LOW (15-30%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PEAKING IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON DURING MAXIMUM DIURNAL
INSTABILITY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG/EAST US-281. POPS COULD
RISE TO AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD HELP KNOCK
DOWN TEMPERATURES, HEAT INDICES AND HEAT RISKS BY TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AND A MOSTLY MINOR HEAT RISK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO FALL TO THE 70S ALONG WITH A LOW
(15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE MAY BEGIN TO BUILD
ALOFT AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND, THUS WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RE-
ESCALATING HEAT RISKS AS CHANCES OF RAIN LOWER AND CLOUD COVER
BEGINS TO CLEAR.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RIP
CURRENT RISKS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ENHANCE TO A
MEDIUM OR HIGH RISK THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS AN EASTERLY FETCH
ENHANCES WAVE HEIGHTS AND LENGTHENS WAVE PERIODS OVER THE GULF.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MVFR TO VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4
FEET) SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY OR MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
LATER IN THE WEEK, A PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF
COULD INCREASE SEAS JUST A BIT, RESULTING IN MORE MODERATE (4-6
FEET) SEAS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND, BUT DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
BRING AT LEAST A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING AND
INCREASING TO AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE ON
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 92 79 92 79 / 0 0 20 10
HARLINGEN 92 76 91 75 / 0 0 20 10
MCALLEN 96 79 95 78 / 0 0 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 96 77 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 82 85 81 / 0 0 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 79 89 78 / 0 0 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page