315
FXUS64 KBRO 262334 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
634 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS EXTENDED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
FURTHER EAST OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND MIDDLE RGV,
FEATURING A PRIMARY RISK OF SCATTERED DAMAGING (58+ MPH) WINDS
AND LARGE TO VERY LARGE (1 TO 2+ INCH) HAIL.
* THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS REMAIN WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
* LOW TO MODERATE (20 TO 50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
* WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK.
* THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT... ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
AN EASTWARD-MOVING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY FOSTERED
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER TEXAS TODAY, WITH
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY PLACED OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF
THE SIERRA MADRE. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEPARTING WEAKER
IMPULSE, WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME
SUNSHINE HAS MANAGED TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT,
PARTICULARLY FURTHER WEST, AND HAS RE-ELEVATED SBCAPE TO AT LEAST
3,500-4,000 J/KG WITH 6.5 C/KM LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (SUPPORTING
THE WIND THREAT) AS WELL AS 3,000-4,000 J/KG MUCAPE WITH 6.5-7.0+
C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (SUPPORTING THE HAIL THREAT), HIGHEST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER RGV, WESTERN NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM
AROUND 30 KT NEAR THE COAST TO AS HIGH AS 40-45+ KT ALONG/WEST OF
US-281, LENDING TO THE OVERALL HIGHER CHANCE OF MORE ORGANIZED
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR
REGION.
AS THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH LATER TONIGHT AND INTERACT WITH
THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CWA, STRONG TO SCATTERED
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK,
MENTIONED IN THE UPDATE SECTION ABOVE, PRODUCING A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF US-281. A
NEAR-SURFACE CAPPING INVERSION AND MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY
FURTHER EAST SHOULD HELP TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE STORMS AS THEY
MOVE EASTWARD, HENCE THE MARGINAL RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER, STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL
TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION AND COLD POOLING COULD CAUSE
STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE AND FORM A SQUALL LINE OVER PORTIONS, OR
ALL, OF THE REGION AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A DEEPLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
MID-WEEK, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF AMPLE GULF SURFACE MOISTURE AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT, ALONG WITH CONTINUED EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL AND
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 50%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A SMALL PORTION OF THE
WESTERN RANCHLANDS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THE ATMOSPHERE'S ABILITY TO RECOVER
FROM ONGOING MORNING SHOWER AND RAIN ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, CAM
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MEXICAN SIERRA MADRES LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AND SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD REACH
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IF THESE STORMS HAPPEN
TO MAKE IT TO OUR AREA, THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN (WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING), BUT
SOME MODERATE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL THESE STORMS MAY BRING. FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR NEAR ARROYOS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
TOMORROW THE CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER DECREASE, BUT DUE TO THE
OVERALL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE MID-MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG. THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TOMORROW,
MOSTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-69C.
BY TOMORROW NIGHT, CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT, AS THE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SUBSIDES AND THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FROM THE
LOWER 90S TO THE UPPER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HEAT RISK
WILL ALSO BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS MORE AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) AND EVEN MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD REACH THE
AREA NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE, BUT COULD
BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE REGION AND BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE
HUMIDITY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS) EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR
SKIES COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY TO LOW MEDIUM, BUT THE IMPACT RISKS ARE HIGH FOR STRONG
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING (50+ KNOT) WINDS AND SMALL TO
LARGE (1+ HAIL) HAIL LATE AS WELL AS POTENTIAL PERIODS OF LOWER
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF MORE SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
KMFE, PERHAPS ARRIVING AND PASSING THROUGH AROUND 08-12 Z LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST, ARRIVING AN HOUR OR TWO LATER OVER
KHRL AND KBRO, WHERE STRONG (LESS THAN 50 KNOT) TO ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL TO LARGE HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO EITHER ASSIST AND/OR FOLLOW CONVECTION
INTO TOMORROW MORNING, REMAINING BROKEN TO OVERCAST THOUGH RISING
BACK TO VFR INTO THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS PICK BACK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO SIMILAR MAGNITUDES AS
TODAY. EXPECT AMENDMENTS THROUGHOUT THE 00 Z TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SCEC CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AND STAY
FAVORABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2-4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 90 78 92 / 10 30 10 20
HARLINGEN 77 91 75 92 / 20 40 10 20
MCALLEN 78 93 77 94 / 30 30 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 94 75 94 / 40 20 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 85 80 85 / 10 30 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 89 78 90 / 20 30 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
MESOSCALE UPDATE...65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page