351
FXUS64 KBRO 010523 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1223 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
* SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (LOW/MID 90S) CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH A MOSTLY MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
ON MONDAY BECOMING A MAINLY MINOR RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) BY
TUESDAY AS CLOUDS BUILD.
* A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY INCREASES
TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (AS MUCH AS 20-50%) CHANCE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LOWER NEXT WEEKEND.
* ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, WPC INCLUDES A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR NORTHWESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY ON THURSDAY.
* A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HIGH RISK THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT WEAK, A HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAINTAINS A STRONGER
HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE, LOWER-
TO-MID LEVEL (SURFACE TO 700 MB) MOISTURE INCREASES AS SOUTHEASTERLY
AND EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF ADVECT THE TAIL END OF A DEEP
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE-RICH PLUME NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD INTO
OUR REGION. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, PWATS COULD MEET AND EXCEED BOTH
THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE PWAT SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY OF ROUGHLY
1.7 AND 1.9 IN., RESPECTIVELY, WITH THE HIGHER END RESIDING
ALONG/EAST OF US-281, PERSISTING OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ALL OF THIS
CONSIDERED, ANOTHER SEASONABLY HOT FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED INTO
TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S. MORE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO
SOAR MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO AROUND 100-105 F, THUS
BRINGING A MAINLY MODERATE HEAT RISK TO THE CWA. THERE IS A LOW
(15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND FURTHER NORTH
FROM A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE RGV ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALL ALONG/EAST US-281 ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HEADING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK, CLOUD COVERAGE BUILDS
FURTHER AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND STEADILY LOWERS 500 MB HEIGHTS. THIS, IN
COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, IS
ANTICPATED TO RESULT IN A DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 40% OR 50%)
CHANCE OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING TO PEAK IN COVERAGE AND
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY,
FOLLOWED BY A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OVERNIGHT. POPS LOOK TO BE THE
GREATEST ALONG/EAST OF US-281, WHERE THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION DUE TO SUCH HIGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONTENT IN
ADDITION TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENSION ALOFT.
THEREFORE, ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AROUND
0.05-0.10 OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN EACH ROUND, SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
AND/OR DEEPER CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS, PERHAPS TO
AN INCH OR MORE. NONETHELESS, INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WHILE APPARENT TEMPERATURES PEAK AROUND 97-103 F, RESULTING IN
MAINLY MINOR HEAT RISKS, THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE RGV STILL CONTINUE
A MODERATE RISK.
LATER IN THE WEEK, WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN TROUGHING
ARRIVING OVER TEXAS COULD DEVELOP STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER
RAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS; WPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 4) OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE AND HEAVY RAINFALL
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF ZAPATA COUNTY ON THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF MAY OCCUR. THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST ARE LIKELY OVER THE COMING DAYS AS DETAILS BECOME
CLEARER. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REGAINS CONTROL NEXT
WEEKEND, CAUSING RAIN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND HEAT RISKS
TO ESCALATE AS TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES CLIMB.
A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HIGH RISK THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD AND PERIODS LENGTHEN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
GENERALLY VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME MOSTLY
MODERATE, FRESH AT TIMES, LATER IN THE WEEK. SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4
FEET) SEAS BUILD TO MODERATE (3-5 FEET) SEAS ON TUESDAY, POSSIBLY
ELEVATING A BIT MORE LATER INTO THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF.
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING AT LEAST A
DAILY LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING MONDAY AND INCREASING TO
AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 92 79 91 78 / 10 10 30 10
HARLINGEN 92 76 91 74 / 20 10 30 10
MCALLEN 96 78 94 77 / 10 0 20 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 96 77 95 76 / 0 0 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 85 81 / 10 10 20 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 78 89 78 / 10 10 20 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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