925
FXUS64 KBRO 242345 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
645 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY LOW (CONDITIONAL) CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH VERY LARGE
TO GIANT HAIL TONIGHT IN ZAPATA AND WESTERN JIM HOGG AND STARR
COUNTIES.
- ELEVATED HEAT RISK THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH APPARENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. A MAJOR RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS IS FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING HAS SORELY LIMITED SURFACE
HEATING; HAVE BUMPED DOWN HIGH TS TODAY REGIONWIDE BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. (OUTDATED. SEE UPDATE) TODAY AND TOMORROW, SPC HAS PLACED
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A GENERAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
(LEVEL 0 OF 4). THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING SHOWS STEEP 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES AND DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR INDICATING A HEALTHY
ENVIRONMENT FOR HAIL PRODUCING STORMS. CAPE IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE
850MB AND LIMITED FORCING DURING MAX CAPE VALUES DECREASES
CONFIDENCE. THUS, HAVE KEPT POPS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW LOW. IF
CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRE IS ABLE TO TRAVERSE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF THIS, RIDGING BUILDING OVER
NW MEXICO SHOULD SUPPRESS FURTHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST.
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK, THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE HEAT,
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE MID (EAST OF 281) TO
UPPER 90S (80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO 111 SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER VALLEY, THE CURRENT
HOTTEST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK
OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS FOR MUCH (ALL ON SUNDAY) OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN BREEZY EACH
AFTERNOON, STRONGEST TO THE EAST OF US 281.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
MVFR TO VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW UNDER A BENIGN PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN 4-5 FT SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 75 90 75 91 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 72 92 72 94 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 76 97 76 98 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 97 74 99 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 82 75 83 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 87 73 89 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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