797
FXUS64 KBRO 270547 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1247 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT AREAS BEACHES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON ON THE
LAGUNA MADRE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA MADRE UP
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF ANY CONVECTION MAKING IT TO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS REMAINS VERY LOW (<10%). HIGH CAPE VALUES AND AMPLE WIND
SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE
CWA TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE, HOWEVER A CAPPING INVERSION AND DRY
MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER CONVECTION. EXTENDED RUNS OF THE
HRRR AND RRFS BOTH SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MEXICO MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE BORDER.
HEAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD THIS WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HEAT
INDICES ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF
HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING A PATTERN CHANGE
NEXT WEEKEND, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS COULD DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH, THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A MIX OF MAINLY IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR CEILINGS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT ALL RGV AERODROMES, ESPECIALLY
AT HRL AND BRO. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
MID TO LATE MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY, WHILE ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE
LAGUNA MADRE EACH AFTERNOON MAY PROMPT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND, LIKELY RESULTING IN ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND
THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 92 76 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 94 74 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 97 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 99 76 103 74 / 0 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 76 83 75 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 75 90 73 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...63-KC
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