327
FXUS64 KBRO 091136 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 632 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THIS
WEEKEND AS HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS SURF, LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS, AND ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
BEACHES AND GULF WATERS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES, AND A RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT ARE ALL IN EFFECT.
- MOSTLY MINOR RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) BECOME
MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) BY NEXT MONDAY AS DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AS IT WORKS
NORTHEAST, THEN EVENTUALLY TURNS NORTH TOWARD A LANDFALL ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LOCAL IMPACTS FROM ISAIAS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOCAL BEACHES, WITH DANGEROUS SURF, LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS, AND TIDAL RUNUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COMBINED WITH A NEW
MOON ON SATURDAY, INUNDATION AT HIGH TIDE CYCLES EACH NIGHT AND
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAY REACH INTO THE DUNES, WITH AN
EARLY PREVIEW THIS AFTERNOON MAKING MOST NARROW BEACHES IMPASSABLE
ALREADY.
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF FURTHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SUBSIDENCE
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENS. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN SNEAKS BACK IN NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ARRIVING, KICKING UP STREAMER AND SEA BREEZE SHOWERS EACH DAY AND
PUSHING HEAT INDICES BACK TO TRIPLE DIGITS AS WELL.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. EITHER MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE
NEEDED, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CRITERIA BEING MET AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A SEABREEZE SHRA
LATER TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT WORKS TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. SEAS AND SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 89 73 90 78 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 91 69 92 73 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 93 71 93 76 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 93 69 93 74 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 79 86 81 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 73 88 77 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...63-KC
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