167
FXUS64 KBRO 160549 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS, AND MARKEDLY COOLER
CHANGES ALONG WITH MULTIPLE WEATHER HAZARDS (MARINE, BEACH,
FIRE, AND WIND) FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- NORTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45-55
MPH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- MEDIUM (30-50%) RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ON FRIDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. MULTIPLE WEATHER HAZARDS INCLUDING A RED FLAG WARNING, WIND
ADVISORIES, GALE WARNING, HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK, COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY, AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS, THAT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SOMETIME
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG
THE VALLEY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT IS A STRONG, SPRAWLING 1040 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT AND CANADIAN HIGH WILL
RESULT IN TIGHT ISOBARS OR AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION. ULTIMATELY, THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG, STIFF NORTH WINDS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MANY COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
NORTH WINDS 15-30 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45-55+ MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE STRONG WINDS. THESE STRONG
WIND WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE COASTAL AND MARINE HAZARDS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY (SEE MARINE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS). DRIER AIR
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FROPA ON FRIDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES WILL DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND STRONG WINDS, WE'VE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED ON SATURDAY AS RH VALUES DROP EVEN MORE ON TOP OF STILL
BREEZY NORTH WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S MOST PLACES. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F DEGREES ON
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
LEVELS (HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S) TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A 591 HPA HEAT DOME BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS AT THAT TIME. A TEMPO HAS BEEN INCLUDED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND IS BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE COASTAL/MARINE
HAZARDS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY (AT LEAST). A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS FROM 10AM FRIDAY TO
1PM SATURDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ARE
IN EFFECT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM 1PM FRIDAY TO 7AM SUNDAY.
FINALLY, A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
TO SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 88 61 73 61 / 40 20 0 0
HARLINGEN 89 58 75 57 / 30 0 0 0
MCALLEN 90 60 76 59 / 40 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 87 58 75 56 / 50 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 67 73 68 / 50 20 20 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 62 73 61 / 40 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR TXZ248>255-353.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TXZ250-251-253>255-353.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
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