811
FXUS64 KBRO 150502
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1202 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL BRING STRONG WINDS, COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND COASTAL HAZARDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM SATURDAY.
- LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY ALONG A PASSING COLD
FRONT, WITH GREATEST CHANCES (40-50%) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
MORE WARM, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE PROMOTES
DRIER AIR ACROSS DEEP S TX. THIS WILL SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES AND KEEP
HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY WILL LIMIT FRIDAY HIGHS TO THE 80S.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH MOST PLACES EXPECTED TO SEE LOW RAIN
CHANCES (15-35%) FRIDAY AND LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAIN. THE
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (40-50%) ARE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 45-50+ MPH POSSIBLE. WIND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, AND ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR INLAND AS BROOKS AND HIDALGO
COUNTIES. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OF 55MPH OR GREATER
EAST OF US-281 DURING THIS PERIOD. BE SURE TO SECURE ANY DECORATIONS
OR LOOSE OBJECTS OUTDOORS BEFORE FRIDAY.
MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING BEFORE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ARRIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN RH VALUES COULD FALL TO 20-40%. HOWEVER,
STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY COMBINED WITH RH VALUES IN THE 30-40%
RANGE COULD REQUIRE A RANGELAND FIRE DISCUSSION FOR COUNTIES ALONG
AND EAST OF US-281.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL BUILD SEAS AND INCREASE
THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, HIGH SURF, AND COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S. TEMPERATURES BEGIN REBOUNDING SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S,
GRADUALLY CLIMBING INTO THE 90S BY MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES MAY ALSO
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. WINDS INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS LATE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS 3-5 FT WILL CONTINUE
TODAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES,
INCREASING WINDS TO 20 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 30-35
KNOTS. SEAS INCREASE TO 9-12 FEET LATE FRIDAY, WITH GUSTIER WINDS 40
KTS OR GREATER POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR 1
PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM SATURDAY. THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES (40-70%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES
IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS
SHOULD LESSEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS LASTING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 74 88 64 / 10 10 30 10
HARLINGEN 93 71 89 61 / 0 10 20 0
MCALLEN 96 75 90 63 / 0 0 20 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 95 72 88 61 / 0 0 20 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 78 84 69 / 0 10 50 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 74 85 64 / 0 10 40 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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