253
FXUS64 KBRO 061700
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1100 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1059 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER THE FORECAST.
- MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY.
- RIP CURRENTS REMAIN A CONCERN AT THE LOCAL BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, A PATTERN
SHIFT WILL RESULT IN MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST ENTER THE FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOSED 500 MB LOW PRESSURE
DIVES INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND LINGERS AT THAT LOCATION. FROM
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BRO CWFA IN
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
BRO CWFA IN A GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THIS SAME TIME
PERIOD, AND ALSO SUNRISE SUNDAY TO SUNRISE MONDAY, THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER PLACES MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL JUST
NORTH OF THE BRO CWFA.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE TEXAS BIG BEND. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME, AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAY EVEN SPILL OVER INTO
WEDNESDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE EPISODES OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER WILL DO LITTLE TO STIFLE TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN AT WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FINALLY, CONTINUED MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RIP
CURRENT RISK AT THE LOCAL BEACHES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY....MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE WILL BE THE WIND AND MVFR CEILINGS. AS OF
THIS UPDATE, GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS
REVEALED A SCT-OVC STRATO-CUMULUS DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS AROUND WITH
CEILINGS RANGING BETWEEN 2,500-3,500 FEET AGL. THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD OR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXPECT FOR MVFR CIGS TO
BE AROUND UNDER A MAINLY SCT-OVC DECK.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDY CONDITIONS. COURTESY OF STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) SUPPORT JUST ABOVE THE SFC, SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-
20 KTS GUSTING 25-35 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY BEFORE WANING
SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
EXPECT FOR THESE WINDS TO PICK UP (THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY) AS
SUNLIGHT, MIXING HEIGHTS, AND LLJ SUPPORT INCREASES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT HAS DOMINATED OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF AMERICA THROUGH THE PAST FEW DAYS, RESULTING IN BREEZY
WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS, WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF GENERALLY MORE MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE NEEDED, BUT WINDS AND/OR SEAS MAY OCCASIONALLY
REACH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 87 72 86 / 10 0 30 50
HARLINGEN 69 91 69 87 / 10 0 40 60
MCALLEN 74 94 73 89 / 10 10 50 80
RIO GRANDE CITY 71 97 67 84 / 10 10 70 90
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 79 72 78 / 10 0 30 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 86 69 84 / 10 0 30 50
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page