047
FXUS64 KBRO 142305 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
605 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 554 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
* HEAT RISK RETURNS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORIES COULD BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.
* LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK DUE TO A SURFACE DISTURBANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER TEXAS. THERE IS
A MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) HEAT RISK THIS AFTERNOON, AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY. HEAT RISK WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-69C, AND
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT, WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM OFF OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS OF NOW, CHANCES ARE LOW TO MODERATE
(30 TO 40%). CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR TUESDAY, BUT AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED AND CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AT AROUND 30 TO
40% FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING DIMINISH TO LIGHT
TO GENTLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT WINDS WILL
INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING SCEC AND
POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. THESE COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY
WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 74 90 76 91 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 70 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 73 94 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 71 95 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 83 78 85 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 89 76 90 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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