347
FXUS64 KBRO 161828
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
128 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
* RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, BEFORE DECREASING
OVERNIGHT.
* FLOOD RISK HAS ALSO DECREASED, BUT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT (ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ALREADY RECEIVED
LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS).
* HEAT RISK WILL BE A CONCERN STARTING TOMORROW, WITH THE WORST
DAYS BEING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THESE DAYS, WITH EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
* BEACH HAZARDS, SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF, MAY BECOME A
CONCERN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER, THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SEEMS TO HAVE MOVED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE. MOST AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS RECEIVED BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ARE NOW ON THE DRYER SIDE OF THE LOW, SO THE
FLOODING RISK HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING, AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSETTLED WITH
LOW PRESSURE STILL IN THE VICINITY. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES, WHICH
WON'T BE A PROBLEM FOR MOST AREAS BUT COULD POSE A CONCERN FOR
SOME OF THE HEAVIER-HIT AREAS THAT ALREADY DID RECEIVE FLASH
FLOODING YESTERDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TODAY INTO
TOMORROW. ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE GULF, THE HURRICANE CENTER IS
FORECASTING A 60% CHANCE IT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE UPPER TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. SINCE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THE
ONLY POTENTIAL HAZARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS ANTICIPATING FROM THIS
SYSTEM ARE POTENTIAL COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH
SURF. RIGHT NOW, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES THROUGH TOMORROW. DEPENDING ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ONCE IT MOVES OFFSHORE, WE COULD SEE THAT RISK
INCREASE, ALONG WITH OTHER BEACH HAZARDS.
ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN-FREE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
(20 TO 30%) CHANCE THE WESTERN RANCHLANDS COULD SEE SOME SIERRA
MADRE CONVECTION ON SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE BIT OF SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY (CHANCES ARE LESS THEN 20%), BUT OTHER
THAN THAT, RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.
HEAT RISK WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN STARING TOMORROW, WITH MOST
AREAS EXPERIENCING MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE OVERALL SEASONAL, BUT ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL
A LOT WARMER OUTSIDE THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. THURSDAY IS LOOKING TO BE
THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR HEAT RISK AS HEAT INDICES COULD CLIMB WELL
OVER 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE, WITH MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF
4) HEAT RISK EXPECTED. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY AS WELL, DEWPOINTS COULD CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 80S ON THESE DAYS. IF THAT HAPPENS, EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS WELL. MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND TOO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR BY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 22 AND 00Z AND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE DRYING OUT. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS IN TODAY'S OFFSHORE
CONVECTION WITH VERY HIGH MOISTURE AND LOWER WINDS. SOME
SIGNATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED ON RADAR EARLIER TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL COME POSSIBLE
STARTING TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE STARTING THURSDAY DUE TO ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLIGHTLY IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
INTERMITTENT SCEC CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 84 77 94 83 / 90 30 10 0
HARLINGEN 83 74 93 79 / 90 20 0 0
MCALLEN 84 77 94 81 / 90 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 85 74 95 78 / 90 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 79 90 84 / 90 40 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 76 93 81 / 100 30 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ248>255-351-353>355-
451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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