890
FXUS64 KBRO 200534 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1234 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- OVERALL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
- NARROW BEACHES AROUND HIGH TIDE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EAST OF US-281.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
RIDGING OVER NE MEXICO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE GULF,
KEEPING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S-LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY, WITH A
MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS INTO THE WEEKEND.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A PLUME
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING
DEEPER MOISTURE WESTWARD BEGINNING TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT, SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
MODERATE POPS (40-60%) EAST OF US-281, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG-PERIOD SWELL AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP LOCAL BEACHES
NARROW. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS WATER LEVELS BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLD, BUT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY MID MORNING. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
ADVERSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO MODERATE SEAS
AND NORTHEAST TO ONSHORE WINDS, RESULTING IN INTERMITTENT SCEC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH BRINGS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE REACHING, WITH POPS REACHING 70-80% OVER
THE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, CONDITIONS IMPROVE
AS SEAS DECREASE TO SLIGHT AND WINDS DECREASE TO A GENTLE BREEZE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 88 71 88 74 / 0 10 50 20
HARLINGEN 89 69 88 72 / 0 10 40 20
MCALLEN 92 69 91 73 / 0 0 30 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 91 66 91 72 / 0 0 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 73 84 75 / 10 20 60 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 70 86 72 / 10 20 50 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...60-BE
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