142
FXUS64 KBRO 261109 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
609 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 608 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
- HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4)
HEAT RISK WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- HEAT SPIKES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 105-115F DEGREES.
- A WELCOME WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER COULD
TAKE SHAPE AT THE START OF OCTOBER (SOMETIME MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK).
- OUR NEXT BEST AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN (DUE TO A
COOL FRONT AND NEARBY SHORTWAVE TROUGH) WILL COME MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK; CURRENTLY HAVE LOW-MEDIUM CHANCES (30-40%) AREAWIDE
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORYLINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK (OR AS WE MOVE INTO THE MONTH OF OCTOBER), THE STORYLINE WILL
SHIFT TOWARDS THE INCREASING CHANCES FOR A MAJOR WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE TOWARDS COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS, DRIVEN BY EL NINO
INFLUENCES.
WE START OFF THE FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT WHERE MOST OF THE DIURNALLY
AND SEA BREEZE DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION GIVING WAY TO DRY, WARM, AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF A STRONG HEAT
RIDGE, THOUGH IT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HEAT
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE AND HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER
90S TO LOWER 100S.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK IS WHEN THINGS GET
INTERESTING REGARDING OUR AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN SHIFT. HURRICANE
POLO DURING THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA OF CALIFORNIA, NORTHERN MEXICO, AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN
TEXAS. ALONG WITH THE RE-CURVATURE OF HURRICANE POLO, DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL STREAM WILL BEGIN TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH, COURTESY OF A LARGE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST.
THE COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THESE
TWO SOURCE REGIONS ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAT DOME IN PLACE
(THOUGH WEAKENING) COULD RESULT IN A HEAT SPIKE WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
DANGEROUS PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 105-113F DEGREES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO
EXTREME LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK OVER THE REGION. SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS (SPSS) AND/OR A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, DURING THIS TIME (TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK), A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COOL FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING
ACROSS TEXAS GRADUALLY APPROACHING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MEANWHILE,
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-UPPER
ENERGIES RESIDING NEAR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. THE
COMBINATION OF A NEARBY MID-UPPER IMPULSES, AN APPROACHING COOL
FRONT, AND THE INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF
OF AMERICA AND THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THEN END OF NEXT WEEK AND
POSSIBLY LONGER. THIS IS THE POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT THAT WE'VE
BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING, AND IF REALIZED, WILL BRING THE
BREAKTHROUGH RAINS THAT WE'VE BEEN WAITING FOR SO LONG AS WELL AS
A NOTABLY COOLER PATTERN DUE TO THE INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE AND
RAINS. THIS POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT TO START OCTOBER HAS EL NINO
WRITTEN ALL OVER IT. AGAIN, WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
FORECAST TRENDS IN THE DAYS AHEAD. CURRENTLY, WE'VE HAVE LOW-
MEDIUM (30-50%) POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AREAWIDE. IT'S TOO
EARLY TO GET INTO THE EXACT IMPACTS, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
A TEMPO FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN ADDED BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
GENERALLY, FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS (WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 1-3
FEET) AND WINDS. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND POINTS FORWARD, CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MORE ADVERSE DUE TO THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS INCREASED SEAS. SCEC TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 95 79 96 79 / 30 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 98 74 99 74 / 20 0 10 0
MCALLEN 101 78 102 79 / 20 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 101 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 89 82 / 30 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 77 94 77 / 20 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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