457
FXUS64 KBRO 231150 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
650 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
SOUTH TEXAS WILL INCREASE FORCING ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINING WITH
A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE AND CAPE VALUES ABOVE 3000 J/KG RESULTING
IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, AND ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OBSERVED PWAT VALUE OF 1.8 INCHES
FROM THE 0Z BROWNSVILLE SOUNDING APPROACHES THE 90TH PERCENTILE
VALUE OF 1.84 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH POPS
AROUND 40-60% ALONG THE COAST DECREASING TO AROUND 15-20% OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES FALL TO AROUND 20-30%
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INCREASES
RAIN CHANCES TO 40-50% TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. BRO RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION, NEAR APY. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION MAY
MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION REMAINS LOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST, HOWEVER DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY FEATURE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH CHANCES AROUND 60-70%. THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STRONG WINDS, AND
LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 91 77 90 76 / 60 50 70 20
HARLINGEN 90 73 88 71 / 70 50 60 20
MCALLEN 90 75 90 74 / 80 40 40 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 89 72 90 72 / 60 30 20 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 79 84 78 / 50 40 60 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 76 88 75 / 60 50 60 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ248>255-351-353>355-
451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...63-KC
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