179
FXUS64 KBRO 091730
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS FOR HIGH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 108-111 DEGREES TODAY.
- RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO
EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE (20-40%) CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF I-69C TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR FRIDAY AND THE EARLY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME
(LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY FOR HEAT INDICES THAT COULD REACH BETWEEN
108-111 DEGREES, AND POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEFLY EXCEED 111 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES AND/OR
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEK AS WELL
AS RECORD HEAT CONTINUES.
THE BEST CHANCES (30-40%) OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE MOISTURE PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
HIGHEST OF ANY DAY THIS WEEK. CHANCES WILL LINGER TOMORROW AS
WELL, BUT STAY A LITTLE LOWER (AROUND 20%) BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY
UP FOR THE WEEKEND. CHANCES RESUME AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER PULSE OF GULF MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. MOST
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EACH DAY WILL BE CONCENTRATED EAST OF I-69C.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS THAT SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE, WITH A GUST OR TWO
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN
ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION TO INCLUDE A TEMPO IN THE TAF PRODUCT. IF
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS
COULD BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW (1-3 FEET) WAVE
HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE STARTING FRIDAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND SCEC CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY SLIGHTLY INCREASE AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 98 81 98 / 0 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 75 101 77 102 / 0 20 10 0
MCALLEN 80 103 81 104 / 10 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 104 79 105 / 10 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 90 82 90 / 0 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 96 79 97 / 0 20 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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