384
FXUS64 KBRO 102346 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
646 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 636 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK THROUGH THE
FORECAST END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES A LOW CHANCE (10%) OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES, AND
GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS
OR SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW (15% OR
LESS) AND SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES
INLAND. OTHERWISE, THE COMBINATION OF MILD NIGHTS, HOT AFTERNOONS,
AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT
RISK ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY IF SPENDING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME OUTDOORS – TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE, STAY HYDRATED, AND WEAR LOOSE-
FITTING, LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING.
OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER SET UPS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF NEAR DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT AMOUNTS AND TIMING OF ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME, BUT THE SET UP IS
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY LEAD TO NUISANCE OR ISOLATED
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS
KEYING IN ON LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: AN INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA, ALONG
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TRANSLATING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE LATEST
SUITE OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 2.0 INCHES WILL LIKELY REACH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE
SEA BREEZE (AT A MINIMUM), ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF INSTABILITY
AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD SUPPORT WAVES OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND GULF
WATERS. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF
1 INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY ROBUST ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE,
NHC MAINTAINS A LOW CHANCE (10%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE TRANSLATES TOWARDS EASTERN MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE STATE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN SET UP
BY TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO GET INTO RAIN AMOUNT SPECIFICS, PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON A LOW POTENTIAL (10% OR LESS) OF AMOUNTS
UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STILL FAR TOO
EARLY TO ANCHOR ON THESE VALUES, BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE AND
CHECKING BACK FOR UPDATES.
OTHERWISE, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING. ADVERSE
BEACH CONDITIONS, INCLUDING COASTAL RUNUP, CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
SWELL INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
AT MFE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS LATE THURSDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS AND LOW TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. SCEC CONDITIONS MAY RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN
THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SWELL AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES
EASTERN MEXICO, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 94 81 93 / 10 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 78 93 78 92 / 10 10 10 10
MCALLEN 80 96 80 95 / 10 10 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 98 78 96 / 0 0 0 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 88 83 87 / 10 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 91 81 90 / 10 10 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...63-KC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page