293
FXUS64 KBRO 231146 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
646 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 642 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR RISK (3 OF 4) OF HEAT-RELATED
IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 105 TO AROUND 110 DEGREES.
- THE COMBINATION OF LOW MINIMUM RELATIVITY HUMIDITY VALUES, DRY FUELS,
AND VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO/WESTERN
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO EXTENDING OVER TEXAS THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WITH VERY HOT AND MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S
TO AROUND 105 DEGREES, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL
SUPPORT HEAT INDICES GENERALLY BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES MAY BRIEFLY REACH 111+ AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW MINIMUM RELATIVITY HUMIDITY VALUES, DRY
FUELS, AND VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BRIEFLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF. LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 99 80 98 79 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 102 76 102 75 / 0 0 10 0
MCALLEN 105 79 104 79 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 105 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 89 81 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 78 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...60-BE
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