363
FXUS64 KBRO 081737
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1237 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, STARR, AND
WESTERN HIDALGO COUNTIES.
* THESE RISKS ARE CONDITIONAL, BUT IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP, THERE IS AT LEAST A 5% PROBABILITY OF LARGE (1+ INCH)
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS (60+ MPH) AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
* A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEKEND DUE
TO LONG PERIOD SWELL WITH MINOR TIDAL RUNUP EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS NARROW BEACHES.
* MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVELS 1/4 AND 2/4) HEAT RISKS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY WORKS EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS INTO
SATURDAY, BEFORE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FROM THE
WEST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SLOWLY BEGINS TO WORK FURTHER
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY, DRAGGING ANY REMAINING RAIN CHANCES WITH
IT. THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY,
WITH ONLY A BRIEF CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BUMP BACK ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NBM
TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVELS 1/4 AND 2/4) HEAT RISKS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR TONIGHT, MOST CAMS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF SIERRA
MADRE CONVECTION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH HIGHLY VARYING
SOLUTIONS BOTH INTO AND AVOIDING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE
OCCURS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY OF ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, AND INTO
STARR OR WESTERN HIDALGO COUNTIES STARTING BETWEEN 7-10 PM AND
CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT, IF IT DEVELOPS AND CAN PERSIST EASTWARD.
PWATS FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING AT BRO WERE 2.07 INCHES, THE DAILY
MAX, WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT 1.75 INCHES, LENDING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN STARR COUNTY
RECEIVED 1-2 INCHES THIS MORNING IN PERSISTENT SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY ACTIVITY THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT WOULD BE VERY
SIMILAR, WITH A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES WHERE ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP AND
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES WHERE ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PERSIST OVER A COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS ISOLATED AND MARGINAL, AGAIN
MAINLY ACROSS ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, STARR, AND WESTERN HIDALGO
COUNTIES DUE TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING RAINFALL REMAINS LOW TO
MEDIUM, WITH THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME BEING SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR A FEW LUCKY LOCATIONS.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
FEW NARROW BEACHES BECOMING MORE NARROW NEAR HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NO COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK
OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH A
PERSISTENT LONG-PERIOD SWELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE HELD ON A BIT INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BREAK TO VFR BEFORE RETURNING TONIGHT. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN, INCLUDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS HIGHER
WEST OF MFE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL BE MONITORED. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TALL CB AND LARGE HAIL MAY
BE POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF THE BORDER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS BRIEFLY ELEVATES SEAS AND WINDS, BEFORE MORE FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MONDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. THERE REMAINS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY AND WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 90 76 92 / 0 30 0 0
HARLINGEN 74 89 73 93 / 10 20 0 0
MCALLEN 76 90 75 95 / 20 20 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 89 74 94 / 50 30 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 83 78 85 / 0 20 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 88 76 90 / 0 20 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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