258
FXUS64 KBRO 231124 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
624 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) RAIN CHANCES NEARLY EACH DAY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, MAINLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) HEAT
RISK CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY TO PREVENT HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A POTENTIAL WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL FEATURE THINGS COOLING DOWN (SLIGHTLY) MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK, OR AS WE CLOSE THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER OUT AND OPEN THE
BOOKS TO OCTOBER. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OCTOBER IS
ONE OF OUR FASTEST COOLING MONTHS (WHERE OUR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FALLS QUICKLY FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH TO THE END OF THE
MONTH). ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE NEAR DAY-TO-DAY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE WEATHER PATTERN ATTEMPTS TO BECOME A BIT
MORE UNSETTLED (SOMETHING WE'LL BE MONITORING CLOSELY AS WE MOVE
INTO OCTOBER).
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, FORECAST
MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE PERSISTENT AND BROAD 591-
594 MB HEAT DOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A CONTINUATION OF HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
TIMEFRAME. WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF
4) WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL MAINLY RANGE
BETWEEN 100-110F DEGREES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ON A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN, LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%)
CHANCES FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEARLY EACH DAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AGAIN MID NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HEAT RIDGE POTENTIALLY BREAKS DOWN. CURRENTLY, WE'RE OUTLOOKED UNDER
A NON-SEVERE OR GENERAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC). WE'RE NOT
OUTLOOKED UNDER ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A TEMPO
FOR CONVECTION REMAINS ADDED TO THE TAFS, WITH TIMING BASED ON THE
HRRR MODEL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
GENERALLY, FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS (WAVE HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 1-3 FEET) AND WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 96 80 96 80 / 50 20 60 40
HARLINGEN 98 78 98 76 / 50 20 40 20
MCALLEN 100 79 99 79 / 50 0 70 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 99 77 98 76 / 30 0 60 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 83 89 83 / 40 30 40 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 79 94 79 / 40 30 40 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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