875
FXUS64 KBRO 050510 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1210 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
* DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAY-TO-DAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT MONDAY; MAINLY DRY (DRIER
TRENDS) TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
* THERE'S LOW-MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING, THERE REMAINS A
MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
* BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL,
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK; HEAT RISK COULD BEGIN INCREASING
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD NEXT WEEK.
* WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 5) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK;
PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100-110F DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON PERSISTENT EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORYLINE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRIER THAN
THIS WEEK OVERALL AS RAIN PROBABILITIES AND COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER
NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO THIS WEEK, COURTESY OF A RE-STRENGTHENING MID-
UPPER LEVEL HEAT RIDGE.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN A WEAKENED STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.8-
2.5", SOME 2-3 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL, ELEVATED INSTABILITY VALUES,
SOME SYNOPTIC FORCING, AND INCREASED SFC CONVERGENCE FROM A SEA
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAY-TO-DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. COVERAGE
GENERALLY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EACH DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES AND COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING FRIDAY-
FRIDAY EVENING.
IN GENERAL, THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, THERE REMAINS A LOW-MEDIUM (20-50%)
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY WILL PRESENT THE
GREATEST RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SEA
BREEZE INTERACTION AND SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES. THAT'S WHERE WE HAVE
MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (HIGHEST
FAVORING AREAS WEST OF IH-69C/US-281). BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED NUISANCE PONDING OR FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN YOUR TYPICAL
LOW-LYING, URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAY-TO-DAY RAIN CHANCES COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS A 588-591 DAM HEAT DOME STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD. THAT SAID, MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED,
HOWEVER, A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT
REMAINS MAXED OUT AT 20% EACH OF THOSE DAYS.
CLOUDS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE HEAT IN CHECK THROUGH NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN NORMAL TO WARMER THAN NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE PERIOD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN BETWEEN THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEST. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 70S (80S ACROSS MUCH OF CAMERON COUNTY)
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DRIER TRENDS. CURRENTLY, WE HAVE
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 5) HEAT RISK DEVELOPING OVER MUCH, IF NOT ALL,
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
HEAT INDICES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 100-110F DEGREES LATE
WEEKEND THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ESE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE LATE MORNING NEAR BRO AND HRL TO LATE AFTERNOON NEAR MFE.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
OUTSIDE OF THE DAILY OR NEAR DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND T'STORMS
THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS COULD
RESULT IN ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS SUCH AS SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 91 81 91 / 20 20 20 10
HARLINGEN 76 90 77 91 / 20 20 10 10
MCALLEN 78 92 79 92 / 30 20 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 93 77 93 / 50 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 86 83 87 / 20 30 30 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 89 80 89 / 20 20 20 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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