814
FXUS64 KBRO 020546 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1246 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.
* LIFE-THREATENING BEACH, SURF, AND MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
* MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A
QUICK WARMUP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, ELEVATING HEAT RISK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ARRIVED, BRINGING A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN,
BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. PASSING INSTABILITY TONIGHT COMBINED WITH ANY
LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING BACK SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED. NBM MAY BE
MOSTLY OVERDOING POPS OVERNIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE A 30 DEGREE DROP FROM EARLIER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY MORNING, ONLY GAINING 5-10 DEGREES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER
GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. RANCHLAND LOWS INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S ARE LIKELY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, GUSTING AT TIMES TO 35 MPH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK
EXPECTED. THE NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM GRADUALLY WORKS
SOUTH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS THIS WEEKEND,
WITH LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, ELEVATED TO HIGH SURF, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR HIGH TIDE CYCLES NARROWING BEACHES OR
MAKING NARROW BEACHES IMPASSABLE. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT. AT THIS TIME, WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WITH GUIDANCE NEARING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND DAYBREAK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED IF OBSERVATIONS BUMP UP MUCH ABOVE GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT TO
CALM SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS AN AIRFIELD THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE
TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWING THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS, OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING GALE
FORCE, AND ELEVATED SEAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY WEAKENS
SUNDAY AND WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO SUNDAY EVENING, ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE INTO MONDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM,
RETURNING POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS, ALONG WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 74 65 81 67 / 50 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 74 60 83 64 / 40 0 0 0
MCALLEN 76 63 84 66 / 30 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 58 83 64 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 70 77 72 / 50 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 66 81 68 / 40 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...60-BE
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