312
FXUS64 KBRO 192309 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
609 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 559 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
* AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, EXCLUDING THE ISLAND UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 20-40% ALONG AND
WEST OF I-69C THIS EVENING AND 20-40% ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
* HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES LIKELY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A MOIST AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 2 TO 2.5 INCHES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA. COMBINED
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
THIS AFTERNOON, AND LOW TO MID 90S SATURDAY, HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 115-118 THIS
AFTERNOON AND 105-112 SATURDAY. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM TODAY, AND A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS,
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPANNING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE FORCING ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WHERE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MAY CROSS THE RIO
GRANDE BEFORE WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, THOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN’T BE
RULED OUT.
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ZAPATA, AND PORTIONS OF JIM HOGG AND STARR COUNTIES UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS, AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ZAPATA, AND PORTIONS OF JIM HOGG AND STARR COUNTIES
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE ENTIRE CWA SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SUNDAY, WITH GENERALLY RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO FALL TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 111 DEGREES, LIMITING THE
NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SOMEWHAT BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING (12-15 KNOTS,
GUSTING TO 19-23 KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT, THOUGH COULD LOWER TO AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE PRE-DAWN OR
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MVFR
OVERNIGHT, WITH CEILINGS POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 1,200-1,500 FT LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
BECOME BROKEN OR SCATTERED VFR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
PROB30S INCLUDED FOR KMFE AND KHRL FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS RETURN TO SIMILAR SPEEDS AS TODAY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
WELL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE TUESDAY WITH
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 84 94 83 94 / 10 20 20 0
HARLINGEN 81 94 80 95 / 10 30 20 0
MCALLEN 82 95 82 96 / 20 30 20 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 80 95 79 99 / 30 40 30 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 89 84 89 / 10 10 20 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 92 82 93 / 10 20 20 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248>255-
351-353>355.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM....60
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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