008
FXUS64 KBRO 121724
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1224 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
- COLD FRONT COULD BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COASTAL HAZARDS
LATE WEEK IN ITS WAKE.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVEL 2 TO 3/4) RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
MOSTLY DRY CONDITONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF A PASSING SEA BREEZE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. AS
WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SOMETIME FRIDAY,
WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND,
PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST, DUE TO A COASTAL TROUGH SETTING UP.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE WE MAY SEE THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY LATE
WEEK AS WELL AS COASTAL FLOODING, HIGH RISK CURRENT RISK AND HIGH
SURF. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON EXACT TIMING AND
STRENGTH SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST IN
THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THOUGH WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO 100-110
DEGREES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE
SOME HIGHER SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COULD SEE SOME
CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE BAY AND GULF WATERS MIDWEEK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
WEEK AND BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND POTENTIAL GALE WARNINGS MAY
BE NEEDED LATE WEEK/THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 94 81 92 / 0 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 77 97 78 95 / 0 10 0 10
MCALLEN 80 99 81 98 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 99 79 99 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 89 83 87 / 0 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 79 90 / 0 10 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...68-AM
LONG TERM....68-AM
AVIATION...68-AM
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