688
FXUS64 KBRO 122323 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
623 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- CONTINUED LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
RANCHLANDS AND PLAINS MIDWEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF
100-110 F MAINTAIN MOSTLY MODERATE HEAT RISKS (LEVEL 2 OF 4).
- A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS,
AND LIGHTNING. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH DAYTIME
HEATING LATER THIS EVENING, WITH MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. A MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP, BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILDS, BUT
LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) RETURN BY MID WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION AS WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRANSLATE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS, MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY, RESULTING
IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
REGION, WHICH WILL AID IN ALLOWING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH
100-110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS
PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. BRIEF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH
AFTERNOON DUE TO A LOCALLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) EACH DAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 94 80 94 / 0 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 77 95 77 95 / 0 10 0 0
MCALLEN 79 99 79 99 / 0 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 100 77 100 / 0 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 0 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 79 92 / 0 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...63-KC
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