780
FXUS64 KBRO 282325 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
525 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 504 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
- ONE FINAL AFTERNOON OF NEAR TO RECORD-BREAKING HEAT ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS, AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON MONDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
ON MONDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND BREEZY
WINDS.
- HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
THE MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR THE FINAL DAYS AND WEEK OF 2025 IS
THE PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW, WHICH WILL BRING NOTABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AFTER AN
ANOMALOUSLY WARM LATE DECEMBER. WHILE MANY OF US ARE LOOKING
FORWARD TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
HAZARDOUS BEACH/MARINE CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES, AND IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE, PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL
MARK YET ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
OR RECORD DAYTIME HIGHS. THE LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
BETWEEN 1-4 AM, AND SHOULD EXIT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 6-7 AM.
BRIEF, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
SHORT-LIVED. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, BUT POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE WARM, HUMID AIRMASS OVERRUNS THE COLD, DRIER
AIRMASS SPILLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, AND IN
COMBINATION WITH BREEZY WINDS, WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE
40S.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 25-30
MPH AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 MPH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE MONDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 15-20 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
BEACHES AND GULF WATERS, EXPECT A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, HIGH
SURF, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NARROW BEACHES NEAR HIGH TIDE,
AND GALE FORCE WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON NEW YEAR'S EVE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S HEADING INTO 2026.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
MODERATE, BREEZY AT TIMES, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND
10-16 KNOTS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THIS TIME AT ALL TERMINALS ALONG
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED TO CLEAR SKIES, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT, BY AROUND 05/06 Z, WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KBRO AND KHRL WHILE KMFE HOLDS ONTO A
GENTLE BREEZE. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, PERHAPS
BY AROUND 09/10Z, CHANCES OF RAIN FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE, NOTED IN THE PROB30S, AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT, BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING AND MVFR CEILINGS (OR LOWER) AT
ALL TERMINALS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION. AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH, PERHAPS BY 11/12Z MONDAY, STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS BRING SUSTAINED WINDS TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO
40 KNOTS, OR HIGHER, INTO MID-MORNING. MEANWHILE, BRIEF SHOWERS
MAY BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS (AWWS)
ARE LIKELY AT KHRL AND KBRO FOR NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
OR GREATER AS WELL AS FOR POSSIBLE LIGHTNING AT KBRO. BY THE
AFTERNOON, OVERCAST MVFR OR VFR CEILINGS PERSIST AND WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AROUND 15-20 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 30-34 KNOTS, OR
HIGHER, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL AWWS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
WHILE GENERALLY FAVORABLE TO BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING, THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
AND LAGUNA MADRE WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35-45 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 25-35 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY, AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WILL USHER IN A NOTABLY COLD, DRY AIRMASS ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND
LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TOMORROW ACROSS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, BUT WILL HOLD OFF SHOULD PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUD COVER TRENDS CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 60 61 47 60 / 60 50 0 0
HARLINGEN 57 58 45 59 / 50 30 0 0
MCALLEN 54 55 47 61 / 60 40 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 51 53 47 61 / 60 40 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 64 48 60 / 60 50 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 60 61 46 60 / 60 40 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ248>255-351-
353>355-451-454-455.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-
155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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