340
FXUS64 KBRO 230350
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1050 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) RAIN CHANCES NEARLY EACH DAY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, MAINLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) HEAT
RISK CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY TO PREVENT HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A POTENTIAL WEATHER PATTERN
CHANGE THAT WILL FEATURE THINGS COOLING DOWN (SLIGHTLY) MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK, OR AS WE CLOSE THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER OUT AND OPEN THE
BOOKS TO OCTOBER. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT CLIMATOLOGICALLY OCTOBER IS
ONE OF OUR FASTEST COOLING MONTHS (WHERE OUR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FALLS QUICKLY FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH TO THE END OF THE
MONTH). ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE NEAR DAY-TO-DAY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE WEATHER PATTERN ATTEMPTS TO BECOME A BIT
MORE UNSETTLED (SOMETHING WE'LL BE MONITORING CLOSELY AS WE MOVE
INTO OCTOBER).
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, FORECAST
MODELS/ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE PERSISTENT AND BROAD 591-
594 MB HEAT DOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A CONTINUATION OF HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S WITH THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
TIMEFRAME. WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF
4) WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL MAINLY RANGE
BETWEEN 100-110F DEGREES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ON A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN, LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%)
CHANCES FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEARLY EACH DAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AGAIN MID NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HEAT RIDGE POTENTIALLY BREAKS DOWN. CURRENTLY, WE'RE OUTLOOKED UNDER
A NON-SEVERE OR GENERAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC). WE'RE NOT
OUTLOOKED UNDER ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.....VFR CONDITIONS, BY AND LARGE, IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE
PROB30 GROUPS TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES. ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT MOVE OVER A TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITIES OF
REDUCING FLIGHT CATEGORIES DOWN TO MVFR-IFR RANGE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20 KTS OR SO THIS
EVENING WILL WEAKEN LATER ON WITH THINGS TRENDING TOWARDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN OUT OF THE
EAST-NORTHEAST 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH 20-25 KTS ON
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
GENERALLY, FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS (WAVE HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 1-3 FEET) AND WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 95 80 95 / 10 50 30 60
HARLINGEN 76 98 76 98 / 10 50 30 50
MCALLEN 79 99 79 99 / 0 60 20 70
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 99 76 99 / 10 50 10 50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 89 83 89 / 10 50 30 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 94 79 94 / 10 50 30 50
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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