912
FXUS64 KBRO 121132 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 630 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- HOT, MAINLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS,
OUTSIDE OF ZAPATA, JIM HOGG COUNTIES, AND THE ISLAND FROM 11 AM TO 6
PM CDT SATURDAY.
- BORDERLINE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SATURDAY DUE TO THE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES COUPLED WITH THE BREEZY WINDS AND
ANTECEDENT DRY SOILS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION).
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY AND NEARSHORE
WATERS FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
(SEE MARINE SECTION).
- RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO INCREASING AREAS OF EXTREME
(LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK; CURRENTLY THERE IS A LOW-
MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
HOT, MAINLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE THEME THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG AND ELONGATED 591-594 DAM HEAT RIDGE COMPLEX REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS PERSISTENT AND DOMINANT FEATURE IN OUR
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
IN THE DAYS AHEAD (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS). HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
MID 100S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN
105-115F DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO WARRANT DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAILY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPSS) AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT PROVIDING
LITTLE RELIEF, WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK TO
INCREASING AREAS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL BE THE
CASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE SIGNALING THE LOW, NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ON SUNDAY. THE
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN WETTER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A
STONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY BREAKTHROUGH RAINS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WETTER PATTERN CHANGE TO DEVELOP DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. CURRENTLY, WE HAVE LOW-MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MODERATE TO BREEZY LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE
NEARSHORE GULF WATERS FROM 11AM TO 8PM CDT ON SATURDAY DUE TO A
CONTINUATION OF BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 30 KTS. THESE WINDS HAVE ALSO HELPED TO DRIVE MODERATE WAVE
HEIGHTS OVER THE GULF WATERS. THAT SAID, SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
UP FROM COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
MODERATE SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 3 FEET PREVAILING SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS AND WAVES, THERE
WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, NAMELY ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO A GREATER DEGREE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 98 82 98 81 / 0 0 20 0
HARLINGEN 102 78 101 77 / 0 0 20 0
MCALLEN 104 83 103 81 / 0 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 106 80 104 79 / 0 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 83 90 83 / 0 0 20 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 80 96 79 / 0 0 20 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ250>255-351-353>355.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...63-KC
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