391
FXUS64 KBRO 121746
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1246 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* MAINLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE
80S/90S TODAY AND TOMORROW TO THE MID/UPPER 90S LATER THIS
WEEK.
* MINOR HEAT RISKS (LEVEL 1 OF 4) CONTINUE, DETERIORATING TO A
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK (LEVELS 2 AND 3 OF 4) OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BUILD TO
105-110 F.
* UNSETTELED WEATHER COULD RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND/OR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CURRENTLY A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%)
CHANCE AT MOST.
* A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, IMPROVING TO A LOW RISK THIS EVENING THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHEASTERLY TODAY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN US GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MAINTAINS DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS
WELL. TROUGHING AND A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS LEADS TO LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE LATER IN THE WEEK, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BEGINNING
THURSDAY, WITH ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO
20-30+ MPH EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENHANCE WARM AIR ADVECTION,
WARMING HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S TODAY AND
TOMORROW UP TO WIDESPREAD 90S BY THURSDAY, BECOMING MOSTLY
MID/UPPER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND. BUILDING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO PROMOTE A WARMING TREND IN MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT RISKS, RISING AND ESCALATING FROM THE LOW/MID 90S WITH MINOR
HEAT RISKS THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS INDICES SOAR
TO 105-110 F; SPSS OR HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THOUGH TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE, A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE (15- 30%) FOR THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FROM SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SIERRA MADRE. YET, POPS DON'T INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ENHANCING FORCING AND
ASCENSION ALOFT, BRINGING A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF RAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT ALSO WARM UP,
WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY ONLY COOLING TO THE LOW 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
IMPROVING TO A LOW RISK THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
GENTLE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON, AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT KBRO AND KHRL. OVERNIGHT, WINDS DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
CALM BEFORE PICKING UP TO A GENTLE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE AGAIN
THROUGHOUT TOMORROW MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE
(1-3 FT) SEAS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS RETURN
THURSDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS, RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS, OCCAIONALLY HIGHER. CHANCES OF
RAIN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE IN THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 68 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 64 89 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 68 91 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 67 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 81 75 83 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 86 68 88 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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