842
FXUS64 KBRO 191147 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
547 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
* VERY WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
* NEAR DAY-TO-DAY LOW TO MEDIUM (15-40%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT.
* RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE
THROUGH THIS WEEK.
* SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-20 MPH GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WILL TAKE
PLACE NEARLY EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN AT TIMES ADVERSE MARINE
AND COASTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR DAY-
TO-DAY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. FOR
TONIGHT, SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IN RESPONSE TO CLEARING SKIES
COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST/LOW STRATUS ACROSS PARTS THE
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INCLUDING BROWNSVILLE, HARLINGEN, AND MCALLEN.
OUR KBRO 00Z SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING SHOWS A STEEP INVERSION
BETWEEN H850-H815. ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST OBS ARE SHOWING SOME
MIST ALREADY OVER KBRO WITH 4 STATUTE MILE VISIBILITY AND A
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 3. EXPECT FOR THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE AND
POSSIBLY EXPAND AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS POTENTIALLY NARROWS MORE.
LOCATED ON ITS NORTHWESTERN FLANK, A STRENGTHENING 591-588 DAM
HEAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 10-15F
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT COURTESY OF A NEARBY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
EAST COUPLED WITH A COUPLE OF MID-UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT
WILL DIVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE TRANSLATING EASTWARD,
WILL ACTIVATE LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) WINDS AND INCREASE KINEMATICS OR
WIND ENERGY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH WILL ALMOST BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN AT TIMES SLIGHTLY ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS
WITH MODERATE WAVE HEIGHTS AND RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK (SEE MARINE SECTION).
MIDWEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN APPROACHING OR NEARBY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS THAT
WILL DIVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE TRANSLATING EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COULD TRIGGER A DAILY OR NEAR DAILY THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. JET DYNAMICS AND OTHER FORCINGS ARE MORE
SUPPORTIVE FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS.
THAT SAID, WE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL LOW RISK/PROBABILITY
(15-30%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY TO
MONDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY, THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. AFTERWARDS, THE BEST OR
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SATURDAY PRESENTS A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH PROBABILITIES RANGING BETWEEN 20-40%. CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE GULF WATERS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID
90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS THE MID-UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIFR CEILINGS ARE
CURRENTLY IMPACTING MFE WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS MOVING OVER THE MID
TO UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
AROUND 15Z AS SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. SOME GUSTS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAY REACH AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME LOW
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT MFE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AND SEAS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
RANGING BETWEEN 3-6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC)
CONDITIONS WILL AT TIMES BE MET DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
A STRONG 588-591 DAM MID-LEVEL HEAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK.
BELOW ARE A LIST OF RECORDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR BROWNSVILLE,
HARLINGEN, AND MCALLEN.
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2025 RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
* BROWNSVILLE: 92F IN 1964
* HARLINGEN: 92F IN 2011
* MCALLEN: 94F IN 1988
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 2025 RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
* BROWNSVILLE: 88F IN 2013 & 1900
* HARLINGEN: 93F IN 1988
* MCALLEN: 92F IN 1994
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2025 RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
* BROWNSVILLE: 89F IN 1977 & 1900
* HARLINGEN: 90F IN 2007, 1994, & 1946
* MCALLEN: 93F IN 2007
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 89 73 87 74 / 0 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 90 69 89 70 / 0 10 20 0
MCALLEN 92 73 92 74 / 0 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 70 93 69 / 0 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 76 83 76 / 0 10 20 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 71 86 71 / 0 10 20 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...63-KC
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