303
FXUS64 KBRO 051137 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
637 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER INCLUDES ALL OF OUR COUNTY
WARNING AREA WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING FOR SUNDAY.
* AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
* A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND MARINE/COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
ADVERSE TOMORROW AND INTO THE BEGINNING PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO DROP OFF MONDAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, AS LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, DEEP MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD STILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH PWAT
VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5-2 INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
PROBABILISTIC NBM STILL SUPPORTS AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 – 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN SUNDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
TONIGHT HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE LOW
60S TO MID 70S, WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGH IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL LIKELY RAISE AFTERNOON
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S BY MID-WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MVFR TO VFR WILL PREVAIL AT
THE AERODROMES WITH BREEZY WINDS, OVERCAST SKIES, AND A CONTINUAL
THREAT OF CONVECTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM SUNDAY, BUT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MONDAY, WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 75 58 70 58 / 100 80 60 20
HARLINGEN 73 55 71 54 / 90 80 50 10
MCALLEN 72 59 72 58 / 90 80 30 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 68 55 69 56 / 90 80 30 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 65 69 66 / 90 80 60 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 59 71 60 / 90 80 50 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
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