066
FXUS64 KBRO 201136 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
636 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 633 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE POPULATED RGV
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR ACROSS THE
RURAL AREAS WHERE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER
EACH DAY.
- RECORD HEAT FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE WILL REMAIN THE STORY THROUGH
THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD AND BEYOND.
- GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND
COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THAT SAID...OVERALL AREA-
WIDE RAINFALL FOR THE WEEK WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES,
WHICH IS A LITTLE OVER 1".
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THE BIG PICTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, THROUGH THE LAST FULL WEEK
OF SEPTEMBER 2026? THE HEAT DOME REFUSES TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS. AFTER A SINGLE-DAY WINDOW OF "TYPICAL"
RAINFALL (MAINLY FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND BRUSH COUNTRY) ON FRIDAY,
ANOTHER SLUG OF DRY AIR FOLLOWED TODAY, WITH ZERO RAINFALL ON
A(NOTHER) DAY WHEN AREA-WIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL IS AROUND 0.20". THE
DRY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED SUNDAY AND LIKELY FOR MOST ON MONDAY,
WHICH MEANS STATUS QUO FOR DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
PERHAPS THE ONLY GOOD NEWS IS THAT LONGER NIGHTS AND CALM LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WINDS ARE NUDGING MORNING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
70S, INCLUDING THE URBAN AREAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE A SMIDGE LOWER
THAN A WEEK AGO...BUT STILL RUNNING 6 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE LATE
SEPTEMBER AVERAGES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
AS FOR TUESDAY...NBM IS RETURNING BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION,
BUT MODEL TRENDS ARE DRYING A BIT SO WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE STILL
PARKED OVER ALL OF TEXAS, ANY DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
MEXICO FOR ONE MORE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A HINT THAT THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF, WHICH COULD
OPEN THE DOOR TO A TOUCH MORE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND HENCE A BIT
MORE COVERAGE OF RAIN, LIKELY FOLLOWING THE MID-LATE MORNING START
NEAR THE COAST AND REACHING FARTHER INLAND BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY MAY OFFER THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST
"AVERAGE" COVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER, BEFORE THE RIDGE SLIDES
WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH PLENTY OF HEAT
UNDERNEATH IT DESPITE BROAD LOW-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE'RE SEEING TODAY.
BOTTOM LINE? SEPTEMBER IS LOCKING IN ON A RECORD-SHATTERING
TEMPERATURE MONTH, ALONG WITH DRIER-TO-MUCH DRIER THAN AVERAGE
(AVERAGE IS 4.5" WEST TO 6" EAST, AND WE'RE SITTING AT 5-25% OF THE
MONTH-TO-DATE VALUES (ABOUT 3.5 TO 5")FOR ALL BUT A FEW POCKETS.
FINALLY...THAT GENERALLY PERSISTENT BROAD BUT NOT TOO STRONG EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RIP CURRENT INTENSITY ON
MOST DAYS. SUCH DAYS WHEN THE WAVES ARE ENTICING AND THE SURF IS
WARM (MID 80S) CAN BE DECEPTIVE TO POOR SWIMMERS WHO CAN GET TRAPPED
IN A RIP...SO FOLKS VENTURING TO THE BEACH NEED TO BE EXTRA
VIGILANT, AS WE'VE HAD MORE DROWNINGS ON MODERATE DAYS THAN ANY
OTHER TYPE SINCE 2008.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND BECOME EASTERLY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, FAIR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED MAINLY OVERNIGHT-LATE MORNING SHOWERS IS EXPECTED.
BROAD BUT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
WITH THE DAILY SEA BREEZE NUDGING LAGUNA MADRE WINDS UP TO 10-15
KNOTS FOR A SPELL BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM MOST DAYS. COULD SEE A BIT
MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING
MECHANISM AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES. OVERALL,
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT ITS SEPTEMBER.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
HERE ARE SOME STAGGERING TEMPERATURE NUMBERS FOR SEPTEMBER
AND ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER (JUNE 21 TO SEPTEMBER 18), WHICH IS NEARING
ITS END, SO FAR:
BROWNSVILLE (SINCE 1878)
SEPTEMBER 1-18 JUNE 21 - SEPTEMBER 18
90.3 (#1, PRIOR: 89.1, 2023) 89.1 (#2, PRIOR: 89.3, 2023)
HARLINGEN (SINCE 1912)
SEPTEMBER 1-18 JUNE 21 - SEPTEMBER 18
88.4 (#1, PRIOR: 88, 2023) 87.8 (#2, PRIOR: 88.9, 2023)
MCALLEN (SINCE 1941)
SEPTEMBER 1-18 JUNE 21 - SEPTEMBER 18
92.6 (#1, PRIOR: 89.9, 2023) 91.3 (#1, PRIOR: 90.7, 2009)
RAYMONDVILLE (SINCE 1913)
SEPTEMBER 1-18 JUNE 21 - SEPTEMBER 18
90.2 (#1, PRIOR: 88.3, 2023) 88.9 (#2, PRIOR: 89.2, 2023)
WESLACO (SINCE 1914)
SEPTEMBER 1-18 JUNE 21 - SEPTEMBER 18
90.3 (#1, PRIOR: 88.8, 2023) 89.1 (#2, PRIOR: 89.3, 2023)
OTHER INTERESTING STATISTICS:
*BROWNSVILLE SET ANOTHER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD (99) ON THE
19TH. THAT MAKES 13 NEW RECORDS IN SEPTEMBER ALONE, AND 33 FOR THE
CALENDAR YEAR SO FAR.
*MCALLEN REACHED 59 STRAIGHT 100 DEGREE DAYS, PUTTING MORE DISTANCE
BETWEEN 2026 AND THE PRIOR RECORD (49) IN 2009.
*MCALLEN ALSO REACHED 89 DAYS WITH 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER, WITH THE
RECORD OF 97 (SET IN 2023) IN CLEAR RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 97 80 96 79 / 10 0 30 0
HARLINGEN 100 76 99 75 / 10 0 20 0
MCALLEN 103 79 102 79 / 0 0 30 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 102 78 102 77 / 0 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 89 82 / 10 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 79 95 79 / 10 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52-GOLDSMITH
LONG TERM....52-GOLDSMITH
AVIATION...63-KC
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