319
FXUS64 KBRO 202328
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
628 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- OVERALL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
- THERE ARE LOW (20%) RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND MODERATE (40-60%) RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-69C/281 TOMORROW.
- CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND, BUT LOW RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A FEW PLACES
SEEING LOWER 90S. WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND, WEATHER SHOULD BE
OVERALL FAIR FOR THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK COASTAL SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG
WITH SOME REMNANT PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS,
COMBINED WITH ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL SUPPORT A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS (20%) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT. TOMORROW WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEK. MODERATE (40-60%) RAIN
CHANCES SPREAD INWARD TOMORROW FOR AREAS EAST OF I-69C BEFORE
CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK AND THE
EARLY WEEKEND. THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED, SOME OF THE
RAINFALL TOMORROW COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. MOST AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAIN WILL RECEIVE NO MORE THAN A HALF AN INCH, BUT A FEW ISOLATED
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD RECEIVE UP TO 2 INCHES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN-FREE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL ERODE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION AND DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. LOW RAIN CHANCES
(20-30%) RETURN MONDAY FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INLAND
FROM THE COAST. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE (30-50%) OF
SHOWERS IMPACTING BRO AND HRL, DENOTED BY PROB30 GROUPS. THERE IS
A LESS THAN 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT MFE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS
COVERAGE SHOULD REDUCE AS SHOWERS MOVE INLAND. ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS PASSING OVER AN AIRFIELD MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CEILING
HEIGHTS TO MVFR OR LOWER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
OVERALL ADVERSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MODERATE SEAS
(ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER GULF WATERS) THIS WEEK. THIS, IN TANDEM
WITH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS WILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT SCEC CONDITIONS
BOTH IN THE BAY AND THE GULF WATERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 71 85 72 84 / 10 60 30 10
HARLINGEN 69 86 71 84 / 10 60 30 10
MCALLEN 69 89 72 88 / 0 30 30 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 65 89 71 88 / 0 20 30 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 80 74 79 / 20 70 40 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 83 71 82 / 20 60 40 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...69-HK
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