414
FXUS64 KBRO 211151 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
551 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF WINTER (3:20 AM CST) AND THE LAST SHOPPING
WEEKEND BEFORE MIDWEEK HOLIDAY EVENTS THE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER
NICE AND BENIGN WITH COOL MORNINGS AND MILD AFTERNOONS. TODAY THE
SUN WILL BE A PARTIALLY HIDDEN BEHIND AN INCREASING VEIL OF HIGH
CLOUDS WITH LOWER CLOUDS ENTERING THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AS FOR RAINFALL CHANCES NONE IS ANTICIPATED, BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES LATER SUNDAY NEAR THE COAST.
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS SHIFTS EAST WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW OVERSPREADING THE STATE SUNDAY. THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY WHICH IF THEY THICKEN MORE THAN ANTICIPATED FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MAY NOT BE REALIZED. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF TEXAS CONTINUES MOVING EAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS TURNING EASTERLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEEP BACK INTO REGION WITH THE LATEST
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING CLOUDS LOWERING AND THICKENING AS EARLY AS
SUNSET AND INCREASING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW
A WEAK QPF SIGNAL OVER NE MEXICO AND THE SW GULF. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE MAY SEEP FARTHER NORTH AS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES
MODESTLY ENHANCED DUE TO A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS, HOWEVER ALL POP GUIDANCE REMAINS BELOW 10 PERCENT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AT LEAST 5
DEGREES WARMER WHILE HIGHS TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO TOP OUT ONCE AGAIN
THE LOW TO MID 70S IF THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LIMIT THE
LOW SUN ANGLE POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
* UNSEASONABLE WARMTH TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS.
* CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TO FEATURE QUIET WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
CPC'S 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK NOW CALLS FOR 70 TO 90 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA ON CHRISTMAS EVE, BUT
APPEARS TO ONLY GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TO FEATURE UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. FOR REFERENCE, AVERAGE
HIGHS FOR LATE DECEMBER IN THE RGV ARE IN THE LOW 70S. NOT ONLY IS
IT NEAR CERTAINTY (90 TO 100 PERCENT) THAT WE WILL SEE HIGHS SOME 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (5 TO 10 PERCENT) THAT
HIGHS COULD REACH 86 TO 88 DEGREES, WHICH WILL BE DAILY RECORD
TERRITORY FOR KBRO AND KHRL. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
+20 TO +23C, WHICH ARE NEAR OR AT MAXIMUM OF SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE BROWNSVILLE, TX UPPER AIR SITE. WITH AT LEAST
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED, IT MIGHT FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY OCTOBER
THAN LATE DECEMBER.
BOXING DAY MIGHT BE EVEN WARMER THAN CHRISTMAS DAY ITSELF, WITH
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-69C/US-281 CORRIDOR POTENTIALLY
PUSHING UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90, WHICH WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE RECORD
WARMTH TERRITORY. CLOSER TO THE COAST AND LOWER RGV, A WEAK
DISTURBANCE THAT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM VERACRUZ INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE OCEAN BUT ALSO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR COASTAL ZONES. A
HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONSISTENT WITH A
POSITIVE NAO OR LACK OF BLOCKING OVER GREENLAND MEANS THAT THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM REMAIN SEPARATE. IN OTHER WORDS, THE
REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD AIR INFILTRATING THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL
BE SHUT OUT OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. NOT SURPRISINGLY, THE NAEFS
ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE SHOWS 1000-850MB TEMPERATURES 1
TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA ON FRIDAY,
BUT AT THIS TIME, THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HOW COOL IT
GETS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CEILINGS ARE ADVANCING ACROSS KMFE AND MAY OVERSPREAD KHRL AND
KBRO AROUND 15Z. CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT
SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. THERE IS LOW 30% PROBABILITY OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 06Z (MIDNIGHT LST). LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TURN
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WEAKENS TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRACKS FARTHER
EAST. SEAS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF MODERATE THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD SUBSIDE ANOTHER FOOT BY TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10 KNOTS. A SLIGHT BUMP IN SOUTHEAST WINDS IS FORECAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DEPARTING RIDGE INTERACTS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MODEST STRENGTHENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS
FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND A SLIGHT SWELL THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS BELOW 20 MPH AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS BELOW 5 FT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER, BETTER CHANCE (40 PERCENT) OF SMALL CRAFT CAUTION
CONDITIONS TO PERHAPS MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS (10
PERCENT) ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 74 62 74 66 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 75 57 75 60 / 0 0 10 0
MCALLEN 75 59 76 63 / 0 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 58 73 62 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 67 73 69 / 0 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 61 74 64 / 0 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....88-CHAI
AVIATION...59-GB
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