261
FXUS64 KBRO 052315 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
615 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, AND MINOR
TO MODERATE HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
* A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) CHANCE OF RAIN OF RAIN TO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A CONDITIONAL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
* ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW A THIS TIME.
* THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFF THE NORTHERN
MEXICAN COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DUE TO INCREASED WARMING AND
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW, A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER REGION THE NEXT TWO DAYS, SUPPORTING POTENTIAL RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF
4) HEAT RISK ON WEDNESDAY. MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE HEAT
RISK IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, BUT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA, WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY
LOWER DAYTIME HEATING FOR THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
THESE DAYS DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ORIGINALLY, IT WAS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE
COLD FRONT WOULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OR
STALL OVER THE REGION. TODAY'S NBM GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR THE
SCENARIO WHERE THE FRONT PASSES COMPLETELY THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
SOMETIME THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, WHICH WILL LOWER
FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S AND CONCENTRATE RAIN
CHANCES TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE DRYING UP FOR THE THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (20-
50%) WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER ALSO HAS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY, THOUGH THE THREAT IS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL ON FRONTAL TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING
INVERSION AT THE TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
IF THE FRONT MOVES MORE SLOWLY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE HIGHER DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
RICH MOISTURE. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MORE QUICKLY, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOWER DUE TO LIMITED DAYTIME
HEATING, WHICH IS LESS LIKELY TO OVERCOME THE CAP.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THE WEEKEND.
SOME MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING THAT ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT. IF SO, THERE MAY BE A SMALL UPTICK
IN RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ISN'T EXPECTED TO COOL TEMPERATURES MUCH, IF AT ALL.
A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS REMAINS AT AREA
BEACHES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY
LED TO MVFR CEILINGS (2,000 FT) AT KBRO WHILE REMAINING BROKEN VFR
(3,500 FT) AT KHRL AT THIS TIME. BREEZY CONDITIONS (SE AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS) CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS MVFR CEILINGS
SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KBRO FROM PRE-DAWN THROUGH SUNRISE, THOUGH HAVE KEPT OUT OF THE
TAFS AS HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE FURTHER EAST AND BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD KEEP CEILINGS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. VFR SKIES
RETURN BY MIDDAY OR THE AFTERNOON AND BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS PERSIST AT KBRO AND KHRL, WHILE A DRYLINE NEAR KMFE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE WINDS TO DROP OFF AND TURN TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 10 PM. 20
KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED BOTH IN THE BAY AND
THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TOMORROW,
BUT SCEC IS STILL POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE AND
STAY FAVORABLE BY THURSDAY. THERE IS A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
WHICH WILL CHANGE THE WIND DIRECTION TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION, BUT
IT ISN'T ANTICIPATED TO HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON WIND
SPEEDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 95 77 92 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 75 97 74 90 / 0 0 0 20
MCALLEN 79 100 79 92 / 0 0 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 100 77 92 / 0 0 10 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 85 77 83 / 0 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 93 75 87 / 0 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135-150-155.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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