585
FXUS64 KBRO 131116
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
616 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY
AND RETURNS AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE
(20%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO A HIGH RISK THIS
WEEKEND. INCREASING SWELL MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE DRY WEATHER COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TRACKS
TOWARDS EASTERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND 7 DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SURGE
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2 TO 2.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (40 TO 80%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AROUND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT (FAST STORM MOTION) MAY RESULT IN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH. HOWEVER, ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
RAIN WANES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR THE
COAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE MODERATE TO HIGH (30-70%) FOR SUNDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS
IN PLACE. A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING OVER THE
PLAINS AND TEXAS, PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE INTERACTION OF THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BRING OUR BEST RAINFALL CHANCES (60
TO 80%) FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL (2-3+ INCHES) MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2
OF 4) HEAT RISK RETURNS THURSDAY AND A MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT
RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT
LEAST TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO A HIGH RISK THIS WEEKEND.
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS, INCLUDING COASTAL RUNUP, WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS SWELL INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE/TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EASTERN
MEXICO.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY....THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TO AVIATION OPS AT
THE LOCAL TERMINALS DURING THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WILL BE MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP IN CONNECTION TO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STEMMING FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE BREWING OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THE FIRST WAVE OF WHAT WAS A FRACTURED LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
JUST MOVED OVER KBRO AND KHRL THIS MORNING. OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS,
EXPECT FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ON SFC-BASED DAYTIME HEATING.
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THE DAY REMAINS DRY BEFORE THE SECOND
WAVE ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT, AS SOME FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING.
HAVE PROB30 GROUPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD TO ACKNOWLEDGE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT. ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MOVE OVER A TAF SITE WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITIES
OF REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR-IFR LEVELS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-15 KTS AND PEAK WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25
KTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADVERSE (SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION) MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE GULF WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES FROM AN
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT COURTESY OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS SHOW
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS THEREAFTER.
IN ADDITION TO THE ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY.
DAY-TO-DAY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 91 81 92 80 / 70 40 60 50
HARLINGEN 90 78 91 77 / 60 30 60 40
MCALLEN 92 79 93 79 / 80 30 70 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 93 77 93 77 / 70 20 60 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 83 88 82 / 50 60 60 70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 80 90 79 / 60 40 50 60
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ130-132-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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