829
FXUS64 KBRO 261818
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
118 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 101 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN
RANCHLANDS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE
PRIMARY RISKS BEING HIGH WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND PERHAPS SOME
MODERATE HAIL.
* LOW TO MODERATE (20 TO 50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
* WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK.
* THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A DEEPLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
MID-WEEK, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF AMPLE GULF SURFACE MOISTURE AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT, ALONG WITH CONTINUED EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL AND
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 50%) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A SMALL PORTION OF THE
WESTERN RANCHLANDS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS
THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON THE ATMOSPHERE'S ABILITY TO RECOVER
FROM ONGOING MORNING SHOWER AND RAIN ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, CAM
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MEXICAN SIERRA MADRES LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AND SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD REACH
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IF THESE STORMS HAPPEN
TO MAKE IT TO OUR AREA, THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN (WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING), BUT
SOME MODERATE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ARE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL THESE STORMS MAY BRING. FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR NEAR ARROYOS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
TOMORROW THE CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER DECREASE, BUT DUE TO THE
OVERALL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE MID-MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG. THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TOMORROW,
MOSTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-69C.
BY TOMORROW NIGHT, CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT, AS THE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SUBSIDES AND THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FROM THE
LOWER 90S TO THE UPPER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HEAT RISK
WILL ALSO BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS MORE AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) AND EVEN MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD REACH THE
AREA NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE, BUT COULD
BRING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE REGION AND BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE
HUMIDITY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORT, WITH OVERCAST CEILINGS
THAT MAY BECOME SCATTERED OR BROKEN AT TIMES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING, MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02-07Z AND THERE MAY BE SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING, PARTICULARLY AT BRO AND HRL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SCEC CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AND STAY
FAVORABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2-4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 91 79 93 / 10 30 20 10
HARLINGEN 77 91 75 93 / 20 40 10 20
MCALLEN 78 93 77 95 / 30 30 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 94 75 95 / 40 20 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 86 80 85 / 10 30 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 90 78 90 / 20 30 20 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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