587
FXUS64 KBRO 290553 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1253 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1246 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- HOT, MAINLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH AREAS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF
4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS, AND
VERY HIGH EVAPORATION RATES.
- DESPITE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
HOT, MAINLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE BROAD AND STRONG 591-594 DAM SUB-TROPICAL HEAT DOME THAT
RECENTLY RESULTED IN A HEAT WAVE WITH RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IS ON
THE MOVE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK OR INTO THE EARLY
PART OF SEPTEMBER. THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SPECIFICALLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST
COAST WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES AND HEAT RISK IN
THE DAYS AHEAD. DESPITE THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND BEING SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN PRIOR DAYS, THE HEAT RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH-
NORTHEAST WILL STILL YIELD HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES (THOUGH
NOT QUITE RECORD-BREAKING AS PRIOR DAYS) THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE NEAR 100F DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST TO THE MID 100S FURTHER INLAND OR WEST, WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO POCKETS OR AREAS OF EXTREME
)LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL
CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 105-115F DEGREES (HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
COAST) THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DROUGHT
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN, THE LARGE-SCALE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FAVOR A EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHICH AT TIMES COULD TRIGGER
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION (SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN
THE LOW CHANCE OF SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY,
WILL CONTINUE NOT TO MENTION CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS (1 TO 3 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS) AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 97 80 97 81 / 10 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 99 76 100 77 / 10 0 20 0
MCALLEN 103 80 103 81 / 10 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 103 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 89 82 / 10 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 78 96 79 / 10 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...63-KC
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