183
FXUS64 KBRO 270559 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
- MAINLY DRY, BUT THERE WILL BE DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAY-TO-DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO INTO THURSDAY;
LOW-MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT NORMAL TO WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES (90S) WILL DEVELOP BY
NEXT WEEKEND AMID A BUILDING HEAT RIDGE.
- A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TILL 4AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OR
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER, THERE
STILL REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM (20-50%) DAY-TO-DAY RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY, COURTESY OF A NEARBY MID-UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (AT BEST) AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. BY FRIDAY,
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DISSOLVES AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DESPITE THE RIDGE FLATTENING OUT DURING MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE POSITIVE ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT REGIME TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RUNNING NORMAL TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A 591 DAM HEAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 80S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S FAR WEST. NEXT WEEKEND IN NEXT
MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW TO MID 90S
(MOST AREAS).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP AT MFE AROUND SUNRISE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH BRIEF
IMPACTS AT BRO OR HRL POSSIBLE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
ADVERSE MARINE (SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SCEC) CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK, THANKS TO A PERSISTENT AND INCREASING
EASTERLY SWELL AND ON OCCASIONS AFTERNOON WINDS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGH END SCEC CONDITIONS OFFSHORE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. DAY-TO-DAY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 85 71 87 74 / 50 10 20 0
HARLINGEN 86 68 88 71 / 40 0 20 0
MCALLEN 89 71 91 73 / 20 10 20 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 90 69 91 71 / 10 20 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 74 81 75 / 50 10 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 70 85 72 / 40 10 20 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...60-BE
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