023
FXUS64 KBRO 080526 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1226 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
* HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF
4) HEAT RISK EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE VALLEY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100
AND 110 DEGREES EACH DAY.
* DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW (GENERALLY UNDER 20
PERCENT) THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE INCREASING (TO NEAR 30 TO 40
PERCENT) FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* THERE IS GENERALLY A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
LIKELY INCREASING TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THE 500MB RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT WEST TOWARDS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO LATE THIS WEEK, BEFORE WORKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW WEAKER PRESSURE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TO SETTLE ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, GENERALLY
MAINTAINING ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON FROM EAST TO WEST.
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
CURRENTLY NEAR 30 TO 40 PERCENT, WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
ALONG THE COAST INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A SURGE OF ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. HAVE HEAVILY TWEAKED NBM
POP GRIDS INTO DAY 5 TO BE A BIT MORE REALISTIC WITH COVERAGE
INTO SATURDAY AND LEAN INTO TYPICAL SEA BREEZE TIMING.
MID SUMMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS CONTINUE, WITH A COOLER BEACH AND WARMER BRUSH COUNTRY.
EXPECT A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH BRIEF RELIEF WHERE CLOUDS, SHOWERS, OR
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP.
LONG PERIOD SWELL INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
OFFSHORE, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES BUILD
THIS WEEKEND AS WE NEAR THE NEW MOON, WHICH MAY NARROW ALREADY
NARROW BEACHES AT HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR IS ANTICIPATED AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BECOME LIGHT FOR THE
NIGHTTIME. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE GULF. EXPECT AN AFTERNOON CHOP EACH DAY
ON THE BAY, WITH GULF SEAS OF GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET, GRADUALLY
BUILDING TOWARDS 3 TO 4 FEET LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
LONGER PERIOD SWELLS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 78 93 79 / 10 10 20 10
HARLINGEN 95 75 94 76 / 20 10 20 10
MCALLEN 99 77 97 79 / 20 10 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 99 76 97 77 / 20 10 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 87 81 / 10 10 20 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 77 91 79 / 10 10 20 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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