881
FXUS64 KBRO 112210
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
510 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 510 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS UNTIL 7 PM CDT. TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 99 AND 109 WITH HEAT
INDICES UP TO 114 MAY BE EXPECTED.
- A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT FOR
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, EXCEPTING COASTAL AREAS.
- RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO
EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT LOW RAIN CHANCES
RETURN SUNDAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND INCREASE TO MODERATE FOR
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS (0-20 NM) FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSEASONABLY HOT AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE THROUGHOUT DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY UNTIL
7 PM CDT FOR MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS (ALL EASTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES PLUS STARR COUNTY). THESE ARES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 99 AND 109 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 114 DEGREES.
JIM HOGG AND ZAPATA COUNTIES WILL ALSO SEE DANGEROUSLY HOT
CONDITIONS, WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 108-111 DEGREES.
AS CONDITIONS DRY OUT OVER THE REGION TODAY, THERE IS ALSO AN
INCREASED RISK OF FIRE DANGER, AS HOT TEMPERATURES, DRY FUELS, AND
POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WILL CAUSE FIRES TO CATCH AND
SPREAD QUICKLY. RESULTANTLY, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPTING COASTAL AREAS FROM 1 PM
TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT TODAY AND REMAIN DRY TOMORROW,
WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE HUMID, WITH INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE, AND SEA BREEZE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 20% FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-69C. SEA BREEZE CHANCES DECREASE TO BELOW 15% FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MUCH
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATER
NEXT WEEK, AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER TO THE
EAST. THIS COULD BRING MODERATE (40-50%) CHANCES OF RAINFALL TO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY, AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY....VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS OR SO WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT CAN BE GUSTY AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT. SCEC CONDITIONS AND/OR ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO MORE FAVORABLE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 82 99 82 98 / 0 0 10 20
HARLINGEN 78 102 79 101 / 0 0 10 20
MCALLEN 82 104 82 104 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 80 106 80 104 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 90 83 90 / 0 0 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 97 80 96 / 0 0 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ250>255-351-
353>355.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135-150-155.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page