920
FXUS64 KBRO 111152 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
652 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY. COASTAL FLOODING
AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS BEACHES AND GULF WATERS.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING LATE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT.
- MOSTLY MINOR RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) BECOME
MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVEL 2 TO 3/4) BY MONDAY AS DEEP LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. ELEVATED
SURF AND LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS A 20% OR LESS CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS MONDAY
EAST OF I-69C, AND A 10% OR LESS CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS
THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BRINGING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF RIDGING
OVER THE GULF AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT EXTENDS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, SO BE SURE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR ADJUSTMENTS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S TODAY, CLIMBING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S MONDAY.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-
110 DEGF RANGE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT
NEAR (OR EVEN BELOW) NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS DEPICT LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH,
OVER MEXICO, SLOWLY MOVING NORTH. HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE THEY CROSS THE BORDER,
HOWEVER IF ANY SHOWER DOES MAKE IT TO AN AIRFIELD, BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
WIND GUSTS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME LOWER VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
LONG PERIOD SWELL IN THE WAKE OF POST TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. MODERATE SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH MODERATE ONSHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES STAY LOW (GENERALLY 30% OR LESS) THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK MAY ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE CONDITIONS AND
INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 79 93 80 / 10 20 10 0
HARLINGEN 92 75 96 77 / 0 10 10 0
MCALLEN 94 79 98 80 / 10 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 76 97 78 / 10 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 88 83 / 10 20 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 78 92 79 / 0 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...60-BE
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