890
FXUS64 KBRO 301723
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1223 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* UNSEASONABLY WARM, DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
* A WETTER, MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY PERSIST INTO THE FIRST
FULL WEEK OF APRIL.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
PROBABILITIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A COOL FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
* PRELIMINARY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.
* COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS.
* ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK DUE
TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FROM AN ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. AN ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF A
LARGE BERMUDA HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 40 MPH NEARLY EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
AFTER MONTHS OF PERPETUAL DRYNESS, A WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN CHANGE IS SLATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK
OF APRIL. FINALLY, SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SET TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS HAVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING OVER THE REGION IN COVERAGE AND
PROBABILITIES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AHEAD OF AND DURING THIS EVENT, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.5-2" WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR.
SO FAR, ANYWHERE FROM 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FURTHERMORE,
GIVEN THE SUPERSATURATED ENVIRONMENT, HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN INSTANCES OF SLOW
MOVING STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS OR AREAS THAT ARE FLOOD
PRONE. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TIME WE ARE, WE'RE CURRENTLY NOT
OUTLOOKED UNDER ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WILL RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO THE UPPER 90S,
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING BETWEEN THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S
WITH 60S LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND 70S MAINLY ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY....VFR CONDITIONS, BY AND LARGE, ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW MVFR CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 7-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDS COULD GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25
KTS OR SO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
SLIGHTLY MORE ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK AS AN ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 69 86 71 87 / 10 20 0 10
HARLINGEN 66 89 68 91 / 0 20 0 10
MCALLEN 70 92 72 95 / 0 20 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 67 94 69 96 / 0 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 79 72 79 / 10 20 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 85 69 86 / 0 20 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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