172
FXUS64 KBRO 021143 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
543 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022
IF ATTENDING ANY OUTDOOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES OR PUTTING UP ANY
HOLIDAY DECORATIONS, THIS WEEKEND WILL BE A PERFECT OPPORTUNITY TO
DO SO. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BRINGING WARMER WEATHER TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE
WEEKEND. TODAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S WITH MOSTLY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TONIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE UPPER 60S. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVERNIGHT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DENSE FOG
FORMATION. RIGHT NOW, THE SREF HAS MOST OF THE CWA COVERED IN
DENSE FOG INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE REST OF SATURDAY WILL BE
PLEASANT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE A BROAD, ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING NORTH INTO THE RGV/DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY, WITH THE
THE CENTER OF THE 500MB HIGH BRIEFLY OVER TAMAULIPAS STATE IN
MEXICO. BY MONDAY/TUESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN A BIT TO
YIELD A MODERATE SOUTHWEST OVERHEAD FLOW AS AN UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
LOW MOVES INTO N. CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL DISPLACE THE RIDGE/HIGH
EASTWARD OVER THE GULF WHILE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIG INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN EJECT NORTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE
PLAINS. OVERALL, THIS SHOULD YIELD A MAINLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN,
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS.
WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA, COLD
FRONTS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME APPROACHING. HOWEVER, ONE FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY, MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THE DAY AND POSSIBLY REACHING A ROUGHLY CRP-LRD LINE SATURDAY
EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO,
YIELDING GOOD CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL BE ~1036 MB, ITS CORE WILL NEVER PASS FARTHER SOUTH THAN
KANSAS, AND IT WILL SCOOT OFF TOWARD THE MIDWEST. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WHICH WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY,
BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING FARTHER OUT, THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL BE
WARM AND BREEZY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY APPROACH AND WASH OUT OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
CLOSE TO NBM GUIDANCE IN THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG. MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DENSE FOG IS FORECAST TO FORM TONIGHT WITH
LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2022
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SEAS FINALLY REACH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. RIGHT NOW, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THE MORNING. BY TONIGHT, SEAS DECREASE TO
3 TO 4 FEET WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
FRESH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND SEAS WILL BECOME
MODERATE TO HIGH. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 69 81 68 / 10 10 10 20
HARLINGEN 78 68 81 66 / 10 10 10 20
MCALLEN 77 68 83 68 / 0 0 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 67 83 67 / 0 0 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 69 73 68 / 10 10 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 68 77 67 / 10 10 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ451-454-455.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-132-
135-150-155.
SHORT TERM...65-SORIA
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...65-SORIA
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