003
FXUS64 KBRO 230543 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1243 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- A MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) AND HEAT INDICES OF 105-110
F ON TUESDAY REDUCE TO MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE WITH
INDICES OF 100-108 F WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING
BACK TO 105-110 F WITH MODERATE HEAT RISKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
1 AM TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30+ MPH, MAINTAINING MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE
GULF, LEADING TO A MODERATE HEAT RISK AND HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 F.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND NORTHERN MEXICO, MAXIMIZES AND STRETCHES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WEAKENING SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW, GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH; SOMEWHAT DRIER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LIMITS
HEAT INDICES TO 100-108 F WITH MODERATE HEAT RISKS ACROSS THE
LOWER/MIDDLE RGV AND MINOR ELSEWHERE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY OVER THE WEEKEND, RISING
HEAT INDICES TO 105-110 F AND ELEVATING HEAT RISKS TO MEDIUM BY
FRIDAY AS BREEZIER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REBUILD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
MAXIMIZING IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE UPPER RGV AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS WHILE RISING TO THE MID 90S ELSEWHERE AND MINIMIZING IN THE
UPPER 70S INLAND AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT. DRY
CONDITONS CONTINUE.
THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT BRO/HRL.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AND BECOME MODERATE TO
GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS MAY RETURN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAINTAIN A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS (0-60 NM
OFFSHORE) UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO LOOSEN LATE TONIGHT, LIKELY TRANSITIONING TO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTIONS (SCEC) HEADLINES INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
MOSTLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS
RESUME BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH, OR EVEN
STRONG, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BUILDINGS SEAS; SCEC IS LIKELY, PERHAPS
SCA AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 80 93 80 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 94 76 94 76 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 95 78 95 78 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 96 77 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 87 82 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 91 79 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...63-KC
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