290
FXUS64 KBRO 051125 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
625 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* A MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) ON TUESDAY INCREASES TO A
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) ON WEDNESDAY AS
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES (AKA "REAL FEEL" TEMPERATURES) SOAR TO
105-110 F AND POTENTIALLY A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY.
* SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
NEARSHORE GULF WATERS (0-20 NM OUT) FROM 12 PM TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
* A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
* COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OR STALLS NEARBY ON THURSDAY,
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TO AS MUCH AS A MEDIUM (40-50%)
CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DECREASE HEAT RISKS FROM MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE ON
THURSDAY TO A MINOR RISK FRIDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
THE HIGHEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA, PUSHING A HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GULF. MEANWHILE, A
TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ALONG/EAST OF US-281, WHERE GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND 20-30 MPH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY, ENHANCING
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTENING RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 90S ALONG/EAST
OF US-281 AND MID/UPPER 90S FURTHER WEST ON TUESDAY INCREASE TO THE
UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S F ON WEDNESDAY AS A DRYLINE PUSHES INTO THE
UPPER RGV WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM
DOWNSLOPING AND DRIER AIR, ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST. FACTORING IN RH,
MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RISE FROM AROUND 105-110 F, WITH A
MODERATE HEAT RISK, ON TUESDAY TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER, WITH A
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK, ON WEDNESDAY. AN SPS MAY BE NEEDED
FOR WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF US-281, WHERE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES COULD SURPASS 110 F FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE MORE UNCERTAINTY
IN REGARDS TO EXPECTED RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES AND DEGREE
CONVECTION INTENSITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE(S). THE FOLLOWING REPRESENTS OUR LATEST
THINKING, WHICH WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR/CONFIDENT, THUS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE, IN THE COMING DAYS. AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS, POTENTIALLY PASSING THROUGH OR STALLING NEARBY DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS GRADUALLY INCREASES CHANCES OF RAIN
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY TO AS MUCH AS A MEDIUM (40-50%) CHANCE THURSDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING CHANCES THROUGHOUT FRIDAY.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THE
80S/90S, WITH A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK, ON THURSDAY TO THE
80S AND A MINOR HEAT RISK ON FRIDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. 90S RETURN SATURDAY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR AND CHANCES OF
RAIN DECREASE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S CONTINUE, THOUGH THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, BEGINNING THURSDAY, ALSO COULD BRING
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, PERHAPS EVEN MULTIPLE
ROUNDS. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS HAVE
INCONSISTENTLY PORTRAYED THIS POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS AS WELL AS NEXT MONDAY AS FORCING AND ASCENSION ALOFT
INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE IN
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AGAIN, THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY
AND PROBABILITIES OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ARE LOW TO VERY LOW
AT THIS TIME.
A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS PREVAIL
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RECENT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE IFR CEILINGS AT BRO. THEREFORE, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO
FOR BRO THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND MID-MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING WITH MVFR RETURNING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN FRESH TO STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, STRONG GUSTS, MODERATE (3-5 FT) WAVES AND ROUGH
CONDITIONS ON THE BAY ON TUESDAY; A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO
EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS (0-20 NM OUT)
FROM 12 PM UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT EASES THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF TUESDAY NIGHT, REDUCING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO MODERATE
TO FRESH ON WEDNESDAY AND GENTLE TO MODERATE BY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT STALLS OR PASSES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, BRINGING MODERATE
EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS INTO SATURDAY.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RESUME ON SUNDAY. CHANCES OF
RAIN INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCE
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 77 94 77 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 93 75 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 96 79 101 79 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 99 75 101 77 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 77 85 77 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 76 93 75 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...63-KC
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