220
FXUS64 KBRO 121858 CCB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1258 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF US 281/I-69 C.
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, POSSIBLY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
- A DRY COLD FRONT IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL AS ANOTHER, MUCH WEAKER, COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
- THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, THOUGH FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED A
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PROVIDED BY
A MID-LEVEL LOW, MOVING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
WESTERN TEXAS TONIGHT, BRINGS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF US 281/I-69 C, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. YET, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN DECREASE
OVERALL, TO LESS THAN 10% BY TUESDAY EVENING ALONG WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY, LOWER LEVEL WINDS TURN WESTERLY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD A OF A STRONG RIDGE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH IS LIKELY TO TURN WINDS BACK TO
NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BENEATH
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT (ON WEDNESDAY) AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTED BEHIND THE FRONT (ON THURSDAY) ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, RANGING FROM 20-29% MAINLY WEST OF I-69 E AND
30-45% INTO THE COASTAL AREAS FURTHER EAST. SUCH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN 10-15 MPH WINDS,
GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH, ARE POSSIBLE.
FOLLOWING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST, POSSIBLY SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS A
RESULT OF ANOTHER RIDGE ARRIVING OVER THE PLAINS, POSSIBLY BRIEFLY
SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH.
BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY INTO TUESDAY,
REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F ON TUESDAY AS CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL. CLEARING SKIES ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE,
INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO THE 60S AND 70S ON
THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. 70S ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND ONWARD
ALONG WITH VARIABLE WIND AND SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN THE
40S AND 50S. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE THOUGH THERE IS A LOW (15-25%) CHANCE
OF BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AT KMFE AND KHRL, BUT
IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 12Z TUESDAY. GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN
LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (3-4 FEET) SEAS
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH
SLIGHT (1-2 FEET) SEAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
TUESDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT USHERS IN
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, LEADING TO MODERATE (4-6 FEET)
SEAS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY AND LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-3 FEET) SEAS
RETURN BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAKER COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
ALONG THE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
WITH CHANCES OF RAIN LESS THAN 10%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 69 54 69 52 / 10 20 10 0
HARLINGEN 67 48 67 47 / 10 20 10 0
MCALLEN 68 51 67 51 / 10 20 20 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 67 48 65 45 / 10 40 20 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 61 67 58 / 10 20 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 54 68 52 / 10 20 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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