084  
FXUS64 KBRO 151142 AAA  
AFDBRO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX  
642 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE  
SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. CONVECTION  
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND MOVE STEADILY NORTH  
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY.  
THE CONVECTION IS FAVORING KMFE THIS MORNING WITH KHRL AND KBRO  
SEEING DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE  
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT GENERAL SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR  
THE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAPER  
OFF LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW CHANCE TONIGHT. VFR IS  
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022/  
 
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY): THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT  
TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVE  
INLAND YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY SPINNING NEAR LAREDO. SATELLITE AND  
RADAR INDICATES THIS LOW HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS FORWARD MOTION  
OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP IN BANDING  
FEATURES WHICH CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NE MEXICO AND TRACK NORTH  
THROUGH PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SHOW THIS  
BANDING AND TRAINING OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE THIS MORNING SLOWLY  
SHIFTING WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE CONTENT  
REMAINS EXCESSIVE WITH LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS NEARLY 2.5  
INCHES. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 2.3 TO 2.5 INCHES TODAY WITH  
DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. 2 TO 4 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN HAS FALLEN  
OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SINCE FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF  
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3+ INCHES TODAY RESULTING IN A BIT MORE  
WIDESPREAD NUISANCE FLOODING OR SOME WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING AS  
RAINFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 3IN/HR. IN THE STRONGEST SLOW MOVING  
THUNDERSTORMS. WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO)FOR TODAY IS  
MARGINAL WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ATMOSPHERE SET-UP AND AS A  
RESULT HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF DEEP  
SOUTH TEXAS WITH EXCEPTION TO THE COASTAL AND BARRIER ISLAND  
COUNTIES.  
 
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH-NORTHWEST  
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A STEADY WEST TO EAST LOWERING OF  
OUR RAIN CHANCES. SEA BREEZE COMBINING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND  
DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20-30 PERCENT TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL BUT IT SHOULD  
NOT BE AS PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD AS THE LAST FEW DAYS.  
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECT TO THE RAIN BANDS WITH  
MODEL CONSENSUS TRENDING BELOW AVERAGE WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90  
DEGREES. RAIN COOLED AIR AND SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR  
TONIGHT'S LOWS TO DROP IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY WILL SEE  
TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AS WE SEE PARTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES RETURN.  
 
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY): AN H5 RIDGE WILL BE  
BUILDING OVERHEAD TO START THE LONG TERM AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK  
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING  
AREA (CWA) MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. DEW POINTS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED  
EACH AFTERNOON THAN THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS DUE TO THE RAIN THIS  
PAST WEEKEND. COUPLE THAT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HEAT  
INDICES WILL BE BETWEEN 107 TO 111 AT TIMES WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY,  
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS, SO A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ANY ONE OF  
THOSE DAYS.  
 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.7  
TO 1.9 INCHES, WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER  
OR STORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER,  
MID- LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS AND  
STORMS, SO HAVE CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  
 
LATER IN THE WEEK, A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE BAY OF  
CAMPECHE AND ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH BEFORE AN H5 RIDGE BUILDS  
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE A SURGE OF  
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES ARRIVING NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. IF  
THIS COMES TO PASS, RAIN CHANCES WOULD RAMP UP AGAIN SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, IS ON THE LOWER SIDE AT THIS TIME  
DUE TO LACK OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. THEREFORE HAVE CAPPED RAIN  
CHANCES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
MARINE: NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AS  
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVING INLAND NEAR KENEDY COUNTY IS  
CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF LAREDO, TEXAS. THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW  
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE  
COASTAL WATERS MAINTAINING A STEADY STATE MODERATE SEA. EXERCISE  
CAUTION CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE WINDS AND  
SEAS SLOWLY RELAX TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS NORTHWEST  
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE  
EAST.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: MOSTLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TO START THE  
PERIOD. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG WITH  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. LATER IN THE WEEK,  
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE  
CAUTION (SCEC) CRITERIA, AS SEAS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO THE 3 TO 5  
FEET RANGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO  
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY NEXT  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 79 90 78 / 30 10 20 0  
BROWNSVILLE 89 79 92 79 / 40 10 30 10  
HARLINGEN 90 77 92 76 / 50 10 20 0  
MCALLEN 90 78 95 78 / 60 20 30 0  
RIO GRANDE CITY 91 77 95 77 / 70 30 20 10  
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 81 86 81 / 30 10 20 10  
 

 
   
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248>255-353.  
 
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/RGV  
 
59-GB/58-REESE  
 
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