092
FXUS64 KBRO 100527
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1227 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN CHANCES TODAY FROM POSSIBLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN. A FEW AREAS
MAY RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OR MORE, MOST LIKELY ALONG/EAST OF
US-281/I-69 E.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 F ESCALATE TO 105-110 F
THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESS.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY, RESULTING IN THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 2.0
TO 2.3 INCHES, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST, SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. SHOULD ACTIVITY
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND NE MEXICO OVERNIGHT, ACTIVITY WOULD THEN
SPREAD INLAND WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE RGV AND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING FURTHER INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. POPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 30 TO 60% FRIDAY BEFORE
DECREASING TO 20 TO 50% SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS
OUT.
DESPITE PROGRESSIVE STORM MOTION, THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. AS A RESULT, LOCALIZED RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. GIVEN
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
(1-HOUR FFG 2-3+ INCHES), ANY FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN
LOCALIZED.
CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF FRIDAY'S CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE RANGES FROM WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONFINED NEAR THE
COAST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS THAN
THEIR OVERALL COVERAGE; OPTED TO MAINTAIN ELEVATED POPS ACROSS THE
CWA.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS, SUPPRESSING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AND SHIFTING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION. PERSISTENT
GULF MOISTURE WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EAST OF US-281, WITH POPS
GENERALLY IN THE 10-30% RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES COME THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION AND LOCATION OF A
FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST, IF NOT A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S (UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST). PERSISTENT GULF HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS, AS HIGH AS 110 THIS WEEKEND, AND
WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. RELIEF FROM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. AT
LOCAL BEACHES, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY....VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY TAKING PLACE
OVER THE TERMINALS, AS OF THIS UPDATE UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LOWER IN ELEVATION
(LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR), AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FROM
EAST TO WEST. HAVE VCSH AND PROB30 GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE
BEST TIMING OR WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN 13Z-23Z/FRI. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER A
TAF SITE WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITIES OF BRIEFLY REDUCING
CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR- LIFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE LATER FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS COME TO AN END AND CLOUD CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-15
KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KTS, SPECIFICALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH SLIGHT SEAS PERSISTS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND ELEVATED
SEAS. MODERATE RAIN CHANCES (40-60%) FRIDAY GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH
DAY INTO THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEKEND, SEAS BUILD TO MODERATE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING SWELLS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 92 81 94 81 / 50 10 20 0
HARLINGEN 93 77 94 78 / 50 0 20 0
MCALLEN 95 80 98 80 / 40 10 30 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 96 78 98 78 / 30 10 40 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 82 88 82 / 50 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 92 80 / 50 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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