565
FXUS64 KBRO 171751
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* PERSISTENT DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
* ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS, WITH A MODERATE
TO MAJOR HEAT RISK INITIALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES.
* SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD SET UP OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVER THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR DAILY CONVECTION TO FLARE UP OVER THE SIERRA MADRE, THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE CWA EACH
DAY. WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, THUS POPS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY LIMITED TO AROUND 20%. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
THE ENVIRONMENT DOES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE TO POOL IN THE REGION. THUS RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TO MEDIUM (AROUND 50-60%) FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURES, THE HIGHS FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS. THE HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 108 FOR EACH OF THOSE DAYS AS
WELL. THUS THE HEAT RISK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IS A MIXTURE OF
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4). HOWEVER BY
WEDNESDAY, THE TEMPERATURES DO LOWER A BIT AS MORE CLOUDS BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.
LASTLY, ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS STARTING
TOMORROW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AS WELL DUE TO THE INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHILE THE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR, IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR TO OCCUR WITH SOME LOWER CEILINGS.
BRO IS MOST LIKELY TO MVFR CEILINGS THAN HRL AND MFE. BY THIS
EVENING MORE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AREA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
DUE TO ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
WATERS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE THROUGH 9 AM
MONDAY, BUT COULD BE EXTENDED EVEN FURTHER AS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
COULD PERSIST. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20
TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 95 81 94 / 10 10 20 0
HARLINGEN 79 96 79 95 / 10 10 20 0
MCALLEN 80 98 80 97 / 20 10 20 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 99 79 98 / 20 10 30 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 86 81 86 / 10 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 93 80 92 / 10 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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