832
FXUS64 KBRO 070530 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE INLAND
PORTIONS OF KENEDY AND WILLACY COUNTIES ON FRIDAY, WHERE HEAT
INDICES COULD PEAK AS HIGH AS AROUND 108-111 F DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG/EAST OF US-281 ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY INCREASES TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE ON
SUNDAY, LIKELY HIGHEST ACROSS THE LOWER RGV.
- INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEEKEND REDUCES HEAT RISKS TO
MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVELS 1 AND 2 OF 4), BUT DECREASING CLOUD
COVERAGE AND DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULT IN
MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISKS (LEVELS 3 AND 4 OF 4) BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- SPSS ARE LIKELY AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY NEXT
MONDAY AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES CLIMB BACK TO 108-111+ F,
PROGRESSIVELY WARMING FURTHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING A LOW RISK FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE OF A HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT, CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION, HELP TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH PULSES OF GULF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH, AND BEHIND, THE
SEABREEZE COULD PUSH PWAT VALUES TO 2.0+ IN. AT TIMES, MID-LEVELS
MAY STRUGGLE A BIT MORE TO MOISTEN, DUE TO INFLUENCE OF NEARBY
HIGH PRESSURES; CONVECTION MAY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED, SCATTERED
AT BEST, AND BRIEF IN NATURE. NONETHELESS, CHANCES OF RAIN
INCREASE, GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF US-281, FROM A LOW (15-20%)
CHANCE ON FRIDAY AND A LOW (10-15%) CHANCE ON SATURDAY TO A LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE ACROSS THE LOWER RGV, WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF
TROUGHING ALOFT AND HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT REMAIN THE MOST
SUPPORTIVE. BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO COOL
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, RESULTING
IN INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S WHILE
LOWER 100S BECOME LIMITED TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE UPPER
RGV. YET, RELATIVELY SUNNIER SKIES AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
MAY RESULT IN A SPS BEING ISSUED LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING
FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF KENEDY AND WILLACY COUNTIES, WHERE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDICES COULD REACH 108-111 F.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY MODERATE HEAT RISKS ON FRIDAY SLIGHTLY IMPROVE
TO A MINOR TO MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE THE RGV AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAINTAIN A
MODERATE HEAT RISK.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER EXPANDING AND BUILDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS PROGGED TO SUPPRESS
CLOUD AND CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT, THUS LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS,
WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER/MID 100S AND MODERATE HEAT RISKS RETURNING
TO MOST INLAND AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN SPS BECOME LIKELY
AGAIN FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108-111+ F. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE
AS WELL, PARTICULARLY BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK,
AS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES MOISTURE CONTENT VIA
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25-35+ MPH,
CAUSING HEAT INDICES TO WARM FURTHER, AND HEAT RISKS TO DETERIORATE
TO MAJOR, WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME HEAT RISKS.
A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT, BECOMING A LOW RISK FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6 TO 12 KTS WITH A FEW PASSING LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE (1-3 FT) SEAS BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
WITH MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS AND PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS BY NEXT MONDAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. CHANCES OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE FROM AS MUCH AS A LOW (20%) CHANCE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO AS MUCH AS A MEDIUM (60%) CHANCE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE BY NEXT MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 96 78 95 79 / 10 0 10 10
HARLINGEN 97 75 96 75 / 10 0 10 10
MCALLEN 101 78 100 79 / 20 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 101 77 100 77 / 10 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 87 80 / 0 0 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 77 92 77 / 10 0 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...63-KC
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