391
FXUS64 KBRO 011800
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
100 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1247 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
* RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW (20-30%) TOMORROW, AND BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY, WHERE THEY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) THROUGH
FRIDAY.
* CHANCES WILL BE LOW AGAIN SATURDAY (20-30%) BEFORE DRYING OUT
FOR NEXT WEEK.
* LOW TO MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
DESPITE SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINANT OVER THE
REGION THIS PAST WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING TOMORROW,
GIVING WAY TO CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES AND TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES MORE DEEPLY INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT A LOW (20 TO 30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT TOMORROW.
WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER ERODES AND GIVES WAY TO WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE WEST. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ROBUSTLY MOIST, WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES BY THE WEEKEND,
WHICH IS ANOMALOUS. THERE IS ROUGHLY A LOW TO MODERATE (20 TO
50%) CHANCE OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THIS COULD FIRE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING, BUT SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TOO AS SURFACE
TROUGHING IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO PUSHES EASTWARD, PARTICULARLY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZAPATA
COUNTY HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY, BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. CHANCES DIMINISH SATURDAY (20 TO 30%) WITH MOSTLY
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED, BEFORE DRYING OUT SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
HEAT RISK WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK, AS HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH WHICH WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURES
OUTSIDE FEEL WARMER THAN THEY ACTUALLY ARE. THOUGH HIGHS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SEASONAL (UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S), "FEELS LIKE"
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID TRIPLE DIGITS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A LOW (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH A FEW CLOUDS.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY WEEKEND.
SCEC CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS. WINDS SHOULD BE OVERALL LIGHT TO MODERATE,
HOWEVER, AND OSCILLATE BETWEEN BEING EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY.
THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF OFFSHORE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 91 78 90 / 10 30 10 40
HARLINGEN 76 91 74 89 / 10 30 10 40
MCALLEN 78 94 77 92 / 0 20 0 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 95 76 93 / 0 10 10 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 85 81 85 / 10 20 30 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 89 78 88 / 10 20 10 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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