944
FXUS64 KBRO 131825
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
125 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID TO LATE AUGUST ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 20% OR LESS) RETURN TOMORROW, WITH
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHTLY ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL
RIDGING ALOFT, RESULTING IN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS, AND PERSIST SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE AUGUST, WITH DAILY HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AROUND 100-105 DEGREES
FURTHER INLAND. IN COMBINATION WITH THE HUMIDITY, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100-110
DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH 111-115
DEGREES BRIEFLY, BUT LIMITED COVERAGE WILL MITIGATE THE ISSUANCE
OF ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE WON’T BE
MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AT NIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLE HEAT CAN RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES, ESPECIALLY FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. CONTINUE TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY – STAY HYDRATED, WEAR LIGHT/LOOSE CLOTHING,
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR INDOORS, AND WEAR SUNSCREEN!
ON FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS AS MOISTURE CONTENT
INCREASES (PWATS AROUND 1.8-1.9 INCHES) AND AN EMBEDDED TROUGH
TRANSLATES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION, BUT OPTED TO
MAINTAIN 20% POPS AS THESE INGREDIENTS, IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED
FORCING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY TOMORROW WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING, AND WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND
10-15 KNOTS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ONCE AGAIN, EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS ONCE AGAIN WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION
WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
NEARSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER 1 AM, AND ONCE AGAIN FROM THE LATE MORNING TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (AROUND 20%) FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 82 97 82 97 / 0 20 0 0
HARLINGEN 78 100 78 99 / 0 20 0 0
MCALLEN 82 103 82 103 / 0 20 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 80 103 80 103 / 0 20 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 90 82 89 / 10 20 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 96 80 95 / 0 20 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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