996
FXUS64 KBRO 171750
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1250 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
* A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FROM 1 PM CDT TO 8 PM
CDT.
* AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT TOMORROW FOR THE SAME TIMES (1
PM TO 8 PM CDT).
* THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20 TO 30%) OF SIERRA MADRE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE WESTERN RANCHLANDS SATURDAY EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT.
* THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IN THE GULF, THIS RISK COULD INCREASE
(ALONG WITH OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS) OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
HEAT RISK IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN THE REST OF THE WEEK AS AIR SINKS
AND WARMS BEHIND TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR, WHICH HAS NOW FORMED
OFFSHORE AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT, BUT
THE AIR REMAINS HUMID, WHICH IS GOING TO DRIVE ELEVATED HEAT INDICES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING, AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB OVER 111 DEGREES
FOR SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS TOMORROW
AS SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES, WITH WIDESPREAD "FEEL LIKE" VALUES OF
OVER 120 EXPECTED THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS (EXCEPTING THE
ISLANDS) FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE, WE ARE EXPECTING TO UPGRADE
TOMORROW'S WATCH TO A WARNING ONCE TODAY'S HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRES.
IN ADDITION, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANOTHER EXTREME HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY, AND
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED INTO THE WEEKEND TOO.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OVERALL RAIN-FREE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK,
EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY EVENING WHEN THERE IS A LOW (20 TO 30%) CHANCE
THAT THE WESTERN RANCHLAND COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME SIERRA MADRE
CONVECTION MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FLOODING SHOULDN'T BE MUCH A CONCERN AS CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE ARE
TOO LOW, BUT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF AN AREA
THAT ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK ALSO RECEIVES
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A SIERRA MADRE STORM.
AS AFOREMENTIONED, TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY
IMPACT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. AS OF NOW, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT LOCAL AREA BEACHES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
INCREASED SWELL AND WAVE HEIGHTS FROM ARTHUR'S PRESENCE IN THE GULF
COULD POTENTIALLY CREATE A HIGHER RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED
SURF AT AREA BEACHES LATER THIS WEEK. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL
CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL AIRPORTS. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP BY 21Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO SCEC CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. INTERMITTENT SCEC AND POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND. THE NECESSITY FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH TROPICAL STORM
ARTHUR IMPACTS THE WAVE HEIGHTS OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BACK TO FAVORABLE WITH CONTINUED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 83 97 84 96 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 80 98 81 97 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 81 101 83 99 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 103 81 99 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 91 85 90 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 96 83 94 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ248>255-351-353>355.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251>255-351-
353>355.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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