292
FXUS64 KBRO 091728
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-
WEEK, WITH WIND SPEEDS PICKING UP TOMORROW DUE TO A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
- FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG WITH
BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS WILL BECOME A CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND,
WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE (BUT HUMID) CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW AND BECOME GUSTY DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. A PACIFIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED THAT IT WOULD BE A DRY COLD
FRONT WITH NO ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. THOUGH THE AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY, NEWER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COOL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY, BUT THE COOLER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST. WARMING WILL
COMMENCE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID-80S, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S THURSDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN COOL FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL, BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 60S FOR
THE WEEKEND.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH WILL ELEVATE FIRE CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GIVEN THAT THE REGION IS ALREADY IN A STATE OF D3 AND D4
DROUGHT, IT WILL BE VERY EASY FOR ANYTHING TO CATCH ON THESE DAYS
DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF AIR AND FUELS. IF WIND SPEEDS TREND ANY HIGHER
ON FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE, FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AND/OR RED FLAG
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED ON THESE DAYS.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS RISK COULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED IN BRO
AND HRL AND SHOULD IMPROVE TO VRF CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY AT VFR ALL AFTERNOON/EVENING UNTIL
AROUND 03-05Z WHEN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AGAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
ARE MODERATE AND SOUTHEASTERLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SCEC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN SEE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL SLIGHTLY
IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS PICK UP AGAIN
ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 86 72 93 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 69 90 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 73 94 74 96 / 10 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 70 96 70 94 / 10 0 20 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 79 72 82 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 86 70 89 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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