713
FXUS64 KBRO 132330 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- DESPITE SOME EXCEPTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY IN RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND, THERE IS A
LEAN TOWARDS LOW (15-20%) CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS (<10% CHANCES
OF RAIN) BY TONIGHT AND BEYOND.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES DROP FROM AROUND 105-110 F TODAY TO NEAR
100-105 F BY TOMORROW AS THE BULK OF DEEP, TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVES OUT TODAY. A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER TREND RESULTS IN MODERATE
HEAT RISKS (LEVEL 2 OF 4) BECOMING A MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO
MODERATE HEAT RISK OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HIGHLIGHTS EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND,
THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY (12:46 PM) REVEALS STREAMER
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF
US-281 AS THE FINAL PUSH OF RESIDUAL, DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
PROPAGATES A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN WESTWARD ALONG THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE, RAIN COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS WELL. FOLLOWING, ASIDE FROM
A DAILY POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO, A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING OVER THE GULF AND INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS *COULD* KEEP MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. A DRYING TREND IN MOISTURE CONTENT IS ANTICIPATED
AS WELL, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REDUCING FROM NEAR 105-110 F
TODAY TO AROUND 100-105 F BY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A
MODERATE HEAT RISK THOUGH THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS COULD IMPROVE TO
A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, ARRIVING OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT, EXTENDS AS A FEW OF THE LATEST GLOBAL
AND HI. RES. RUNS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS
MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN US SHIFTS THE TROUGH TO WESTERN TEXAS; WPC INCLUDES
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF 4), LEADING TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING, WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONGST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE,
SUPPORTING EITHER AN ENHANCED HIGH PRESSURE OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN EITHER SUNNIER SKIES WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
OR CLOUDIER SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM UNSETTLED
WEATHER, RESPECTIVELY. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE
DRIER AND WARMER SOLUTION, BUT THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTIES, WE GENERALLY ANTICIPATE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATE THIS WEEKEND, WE COULD RISE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
MOSTLY UPPER 90S ALONG/EAST OF US-281/I-69 C AND A MORE EXPANSIVE
AREA OF LOWER 100S FURTHER WEST.
A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A MIX OF SOME CUMULUS AND
CIRRUS CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND 15 KNOTS MID TO
LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. JUST LIKE THIS AFTERNOON, SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FROM TIME-TO-TIME FOR
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND POSSIBLY THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS (0-20 NM
OUT), ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OTHER THAN
A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF RAIN. HOWEVER, DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST, THIS COULD CHANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 94 81 94 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 77 96 79 95 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 79 99 81 98 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 100 79 98 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 82 88 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 80 92 / 10 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...63-KC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page