729
FXUS64 KBRO 022343 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
643 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
* MAINLY RAIN-FREE AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK; DAY-TO-DAY LOW, NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF A ROGUE
SEA BREEZE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH FRIDAY.
* PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-110F DEGREES WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS EACH DAY.
* FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
MAINLY RAIN-FREE AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY HOTTER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD OR THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A 591-594 DAM SUB-TROPICAL HEAT
RIDGE WILL MAIN FIXTURE DRIVING OUR HOT, DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A DANGEROUS, RECORD-SETTING HEATWAVE IS UNFOLDING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HEAT DOME RESIDES OVER APPALACHIA INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. NEXT WEEK, THE HEAT DOME RETREATS WESTWARD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST REGION. WITH THE HEAT RIDGE DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE SPARED FROM THE BRUNT OF THE HEAT WITH
TEMPERATURES BEING AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
LOW, YET NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
(SHOWERS AND STORMS) TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SFC WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS HIGHLIGHTED, SINCE THE HEAT RIDGE/DOME WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD, TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN NORMAL LEVELS. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST TO THE
LOWER 100S FAR WEST/INLAND EACH DAY. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EACH NIGHT.
ULTIMATELY, THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT
RISK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
RANGING BETWEEN 100-110F DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT AND BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE, BUT COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE TOO
ISOLATED TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 94 79 94 / 20 20 10 0
HARLINGEN 76 96 76 96 / 20 20 10 0
MCALLEN 79 99 79 100 / 20 20 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 100 77 101 / 20 20 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 81 87 / 20 20 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 92 78 92 / 20 20 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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