052
FXUS64 KBRO 080522 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1222 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS, NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND THE UPPER RGV.
* THESE RISKS ARE CONDITIONAL, BUT SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP, THERE IS AT LEAST A 5% PROBABILITY OF LARGE (1+ INCH)
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS (60+ MPH) AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
* A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
* MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVELS 1/4 AND 2/4) HEAT RISKS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY IMPROVE TO A MINOR HEAT RISK ON MONDAY AND
ONWARD BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY EVOLVING FORECAST IN
REGARDS TO UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTATIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING FROM INCREASING FORCING AND
EMBEDDED IMPULSES AHEAD OF A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE
REVEALED A STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE BORDER PROVIDING
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FOR DEEP AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SIERRA MADRE, WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION. YET, LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN, OCCASIONALLY HEAVY, HAS MADE IT INTO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS, WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND THE
UPPER RGV SO FAR. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME, HOURLY UPDATES OF THE
HRRR HAVE ADJUSTED WELL TO BEST REFLECT INSTABILITY AND RADAR,
PROJECTING FOR SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT, THUS DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER
NORTHWEST WHILE INCREASING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF
I-69 E. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, WE ANTICIPATE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MAKING IT TO THE BORDER TO BE SUB-SEVERE DUE TO THE CAPPING
INVERSION THOUGH THERE COULD BE LIGHTNING AT TIMES CLOSER TO THE
RIO GRANDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED.
HOW LONG SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER PERSIST FRIDAY MORNING, HOW FAR
NORTH LOWER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AS A WARM FRONT AND THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT FOLLOWS
WILL MOST LIKELY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA MADRE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
WHETHER OR NOT IT MAKES IT INTO THE CWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING HOURS AS THE TROUGH-ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES. AT THIS TIME, SPC PLACES A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS,
THE UPPER RGV AND MOST OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. DUE TO THE
REASONS PROVIDED ABOVE, THIS REMAINS A CONDITIONAL RISK SINCE IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CLOUD COVER LINGERS INTO FRIDAY AND MORE STABLE
AIR PREVENTS STRONGER STORMS FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, IF
INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL LIFT RETURN IN TIME TO DEVELOP DEEP AND
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION, THEN THERE WOULD BE AT LEAST
A 5% PROBABILITY OF LARGE (1+ INCH) HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS (60+
MPH) AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER IN THE DAY.
IN SHORT, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF RAIN DURING
THE DAYTIME ALONG/EAST OF US-281 ON FRIDAY, INCREASING LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE ALONG/WEST
OF US-281 FRIDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING, A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%)
CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND WEAKENS OVER THE GULF. MOST OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CAN EXPECT AROUND 0.2-0.5 OF AN INCH OF RAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE AREAS IN AND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS COULD RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN, OR MORE.
TEMPERATURES RISE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. A
MINOR HEAT RISK, WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 95-100 F, IS LIKELY
ALONG/WEST OF I-69 E WHILE POINTS FURTHER EAST EXPERIENCE A MODERATE
HEAT RISK AS AFTERNOON APPARENT TEMPERATURES PEAK AROUND 100-105 F.
THE RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISKS
(INDICES OF 95-105 F) CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES,
BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S/90S AND DRIER AIR ARE LIKELY TO RESULT
IN A MINOR HEAT RISK ON MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
FEATURING ONLY A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHILE A MIXTURE OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BY SUNRISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE MVFR WITH
THE INCREASING CEILINGS. WHILE SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, BY SUNRISE THOSE CHANCES DECREASE AGAIN. BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON, THE CEILINGS SHOULD RISE EVEN FURTHER ALLOWING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS
TONIGHT BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4 FT) SEAS
ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ON MONDAY, GRADUALLY RETURNING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF RAIN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A LOW (15-30%)
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO A
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE ON SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RESUME
SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 91 77 90 77 / 30 10 20 0
HARLINGEN 91 74 90 73 / 30 10 30 0
MCALLEN 91 75 91 75 / 40 20 30 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 89 74 90 74 / 20 40 40 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 78 83 78 / 30 10 20 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 76 88 76 / 30 10 30 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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