458
FXUS64 KBRO 151750
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1150 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1119 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
- WARM FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY, COOLING US DOWN
FOR THE WEEKEND.
- AT LOCAL BEACHES, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS
AGAIN BEHIND SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT.
- LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY ALONG THE
COAST, AND ACROSS THE REGION (HIGHER ALONG THE COAST) TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING TONIGHT, BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FRIDAY. MORE COLD
FRONTS, SATURDAY AND TUESDAY, HAVE THE CHANCE TO RETURN HAZARDOUS
BEACH CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING PRE-
DAWN SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY, BUT A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 70S FRIDAY.
FOLLOWING FROPA, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY'S, AND LOWS DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S (RANCHLANDS AND PLAINS), AND LOW TO MID 40S
(RGV AND COAST). IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, WIND CHILL MAY DROP
FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES TO 32 DEGF OR BELOW JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
SUNDAY. SUNDAY, COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL ALLOW A WARMER START TO THE
WEEK (70S) BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY (60S-70).
THIS SECOND FRONT IN DAYS 5-6 HAS SOME INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH
IT, MAINLY REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT REACHES, COASTAL LOW FORMATION ALONG THE FRONT,
AND TRANSIT OF THIS COASTAL LOW, MAY LEAD TO A SETUP FAVORABLE
FOR PERSISTENT RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED, SO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST. WEDNESDAY
ONWARD, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z CYCLE. NORTHERLY WINDS
SHIFT SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE MID-MORNING FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KTS POSSIBLE AT THE TAIL END OF THE CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
MODERATE SEAS AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, SEAS BECOMING SLIGHT AND WINDS SOUTHERLY BY TONIGHT.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR THE GULF
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) ON THE LAGUNA
MADRE THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. LOW TO
MODERATE (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCEC TO SCA CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHERLY BECOMING STRONG, AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY RETURN TO FAVORABLE THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS, RETURNING
LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 49 78 58 72 / 0 0 0 20
HARLINGEN 44 79 53 71 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 48 82 56 72 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 44 80 51 69 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 56 73 62 69 / 0 0 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 50 77 57 71 / 0 0 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page