718
FXUS64 KBRO 290528 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
-THERE IS A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE RGV SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS.
-MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST, THOUGH WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN POPS FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.
-FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS (RFDS)
ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON FURTHER INLAND.
-TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
LIGHT TO VARIABLE EASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY MORNING BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC. ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT INFLUENCE FROM A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER MEXICO MAY RESULT IN A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM ISOLATED AND BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE
RGV SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS (LESS THAN 10% POPS) BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL FEATURE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONUS WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES LEADING TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF US-281.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
EXCEPT FOR A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST ON
TUESDAY, RESULTING FROM ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
MEXICO. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW REGARDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT PASSES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS; RECENT DETERMINISTIC GFS
MODEL RUNS REVEAL A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER, BUT WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION REMAINING
NORTH OF OUR CWA. OTHERWISE, THE COMBINATION OF MAINLY DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING MONDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND THE UPPER RGV WHERE AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL INTO FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
(RFD) CRITERIA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY BE LATE NEXT WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND POTENTIAL COLD FRONT.
A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO RISE TEMPERATURES, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS INCREASING FROM AROUND 85-90 F ON SUNDAY TO MAINLY 90S
ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 90S FURTHER WEST BY WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY, WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS INCREASE FROM THE 60S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S, POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
A MEDIUM RISK RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT DECREASES TO A LOW RISK BY SUNDAY
MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A MIXTURE OF VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY LATE MORNING VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD TAKE HOLD AND REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT COULD
BECOME MORE GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT BECOME MAINLY
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH MODERATE
(3-4 FT) SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS RESUME ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CONDITIONS (SCEC) HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS, LEADING TO BREEZIER CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LOW (15-20%)
CHANCE OF ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO POPS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 84 67 85 69 / 30 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 86 63 89 66 / 20 0 0 0
MCALLEN 89 68 92 70 / 30 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 90 66 92 66 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 71 78 71 / 20 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 66 85 68 / 20 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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