453
FXUS64 KBRO 030412
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1012 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 932 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
* BREEZY TO AT TIMES WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE WANING.
* MAINLY RAIN-FREE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* A COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT (A FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED).
* TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS COASTAL/MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY (SEE MARINE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD OR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS OF THIS UPDATE, SOME STREAMER SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED FROM SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND TO THE GULF WATERS WERE SEEN ON RADAR. THROUGH THIS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT, EXPECT FOR THESE STREAMER
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE BEFORE WANING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. ON THE VERY
WESTERN EDGE OF THESE STREAMER SHOWERS, ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR BROWNSVILLE. OUTSIDE
OF ANY ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS, EXPECT FOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AT TIMES
DUE TO AN ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT NEARBY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE 50S MOST PLACES (LOWER
60S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY).
ADDITIONAL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) ON BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS MID
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT AN EVEN WARMER DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A DEVELOPING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED 500 MB PATTERN, FEATURING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 585 DAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.,
EARLY TO MID WEEK WILL HELP TO DRIVE A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE STATE OF TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE
NEAR/ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED OVER THE
GULF WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. A MAJOR
AIRMASS CHANGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK OF A CROSS-POLAR FLOW
AND INSTEAD A TRACK OVER SHALLOWER COLD REGIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS AS TEMPS WILL FALL DURING THE DAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S) AS THE
COOLER AIRMASS/COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) REGIME WILL FULLY BE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION.
A WARMING TREND QUICKLY TAKES PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WINDS
RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
50S MOST PLACES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME LOWER 60S OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG THE RGV AND 30S/40S OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE BEACHES ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS OF LATE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.....BY AND LARGE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. THERE COULD BE A FEW MVFR CLOUDS AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TO AVIATION OPS FOR THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF CYCLE WILL BE THE WIND. AN ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT OR TIGHTENED ISOBARS NEARBY WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS 10-15 MPH TONIGHT WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY 15-30 MPH FOR A PERIOD
MID MORNING TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE DECREASING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE WINDS COULD HAVE
IMPACTS ON EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RUNWAYS.
WINDS NEAR THE SFC THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL LET UP SLIGHTLY AS
MIXING HEIGHTS DECREASE. THAT SAID, THE RISK FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) WILL INCREASE AT ALL THE TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY AS WINDS BETWEEN THE SFC AND 2,000 FEET
AGL DECOUPLE, WITH 2,000 FT WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 30-40 KTS. HAVE LLWS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE TAFS BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 09Z/TUES TO 15Z/TUES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS (SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION) ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS TO TUESDAY
EVENING GIVEN THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OF LATE HELPING TO DRIVE
UP WAVE HEIGHTS. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 62 78 58 74 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 58 81 54 73 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 61 85 58 75 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 57 83 54 76 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 63 71 60 68 / 0 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 60 77 56 71 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page