797
FXUS64 KBRO 221818 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
118 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1237 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES OF INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE, LOCALLY HEAVY, SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND THE RGV ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING.
- MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN
RETURN BY POSSIBLY TUESDAY.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD MINOR RISKS
OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) CONTINUE.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT,
BECOMING A LOW RISK TOMORROW MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE BACK END OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 588-591 DAM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES
PASSING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY, WORKING WITH 1.8-2.0 IN. PWAT
TO PUSH AN AREA OF INTERMITTENT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE, LOCALLY HEAVY, INTENSITY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE RGV INTO THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING A LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE OF RAIN, HIGHEST ALONG/EAST US-281 AND
I-69 C. IN GENERAL, MOST AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL ARE LIKELY TO
SEE AROUND 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS, THOUGH UP TO A HALF INCH IS
POSSIBLY WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH
OF THE RGV LATER THIS AFTERNOON, SUBSIDENCE IS ANTICIPATED TO
BUILD ALOFT, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY PASSES OVER AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION. FOLLOWING, ASIDE FROM SOME WEAKNESS IN
THE MID LAYERS LEADING TO A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE RGV ON SATURDAY, DRY CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO
PREVAIL INTO POSSIBLY MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD AND OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COASTLINE.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM THE PASSAGE
OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT EXITS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS, SPREADING LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCES OF
RAIN INLAND, BEGINNING POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. DAILY LOW OR LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES MAY PERSIST INTO THE
LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH COULD BEGIN TO
DEEPEN OFFSHORE THE WESTERN MEXICO COASTLINE. ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE
CONTENT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MIGHT ALSO LEAD
TO PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, THOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME.
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, MAXIMIZING IN THE 80S AND
POSSIBLY LOW 90S WHILE FALLING TO THE 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S
CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY
TREND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVERAGE
BUILDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
REPORTED CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. HAVE LEFT VCSH AS PREVAILING UNTIL AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING
AS WELL AS ADDED IN A TEMPO UNTIL 22Z (KBRO AND KHRL) AND FROM
19-23Z (KMFE) TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND/OR LOWER CEILINGS AS INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE, LOCALLY
HEAVY, SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE ONCOMING HOURS.
AMENDMENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OR VARIABLE, BECOMING
VARIABLE OR CALM THIS EVENING AS VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4 FT)
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY MORNING, PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT,
OR INTO SUNDAY, AS WINDS INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH WITH
MODERATE (4-6 FT) SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS RESUME
BY MONDAY THOUGH SWELL RESULTING FROM BREEZY WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COULD MAINTAIN MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN IN THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 70 86 73 86 / 0 0 10 20
HARLINGEN 67 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 20
MCALLEN 70 90 71 90 / 10 0 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 69 90 69 90 / 10 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 80 76 81 / 0 0 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 83 71 84 / 0 0 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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