249
FXUS64 KBRO 060535 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1235 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO TELL WHAT IF ANY IMPACTS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS MAY SEE IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-69C.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
DAILY RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-69C. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH INTO SOUTH TEXAS
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT INCREASED FORCING ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MAY RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF THEN MOVING
ONSHORE WITH THE SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN AREAS SEEING REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND INCREASED
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THE
HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH, OR POSSIBLY
CLIP PORTIONS OF CAMERON COUNTY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
CAMERON, AND WILLACY COUNTIES, AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF KENEDY COUNTIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, CLIMBING TO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THE
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS TRACKING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH A 70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND 80% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY
IMPACTS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MIGHT SEE IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. BRO RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST, WELL
EAST OF THE TERMINALS. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT, BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO VFR LATER
THIS MORNING. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT,
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT BRO AND HRL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
LIKELY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY, AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS TRACKING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH A 70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND 80% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY
IMPACTS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MIGHT SEE IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS, HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 87 76 89 76 / 80 60 70 50
HARLINGEN 89 72 91 72 / 70 30 60 40
MCALLEN 92 76 93 75 / 20 10 50 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 92 73 93 73 / 10 10 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 80 86 80 / 90 80 80 70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 76 89 75 / 80 70 70 60
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...63-KC
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