076
FXUS64 KBRO 130350
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1050 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY
AND RETURNS AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE
(20%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO A HIGH RISK THIS
WEEKEND. INCREASING SWELL MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE DRY WEATHER COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TRACKS
TOWARDS EASTERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND 7 DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SURGE
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2 TO 2.5 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (40 TO 80%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AROUND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT (FAST STORM MOTION) MAY RESULT IN THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH. HOWEVER, ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
RAIN WANES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR THE
COAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE MODERATE TO HIGH (30-70%) FOR SUNDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS
IN PLACE. A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING OVER THE
PLAINS AND TEXAS, PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE INTERACTION OF THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BRING OUR BEST RAINFALL CHANCES (60
TO 80%) FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL (2-3+ INCHES) MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2
OF 4) HEAT RISK RETURNS THURSDAY AND A MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT
RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT
LEAST TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO A HIGH RISK THIS WEEKEND.
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS, INCLUDING COASTAL RUNUP, WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS SWELL INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE/TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EASTERN
MEXICO.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST WITHIN
VICINITY OF KBRO WHILE KHRL AND KMFE REMAIN DRIER. PROB 30S
EXPAND FROM KBRO TONIGHT TO ALL TERMINALS BY MIDDAY TOMORROW AS
PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SLIGHTLY ADVERSE TO ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS WEEKEND. INTERMITTENT TO PERIODS OF SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS SWELLS
INCREASE ON THE GULF WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 93 80 90 80 / 10 40 70 40
HARLINGEN 93 77 89 78 / 0 20 70 40
MCALLEN 96 79 91 79 / 10 10 80 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 97 77 92 77 / 10 0 70 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 83 87 83 / 0 30 60 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 80 88 80 / 0 30 60 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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