687
FXUS64 KBRO 281716
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1216 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105-110 F MAINTAIN MOSTLY
MODERATE HEAT RISKS (LEVEL 2 OF 4) THROUGH TOMORROW THOUGH
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES ARE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE MAJOR HEAT RISKS (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TODAY. MINOR (LEVEL
1 OF 4) TO MODERATE HEAT RISKS ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH ONLY A LOW (AT MOST, 15%)
CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY.
- A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
NORTHERN GULF WATERS (NORTHWARD FROM PORT MANSFIELD 0-60 NM
OUT) UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS (POPS <10%) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AS OUR REGION REMAINS WEDGED
BETWEEN PERSISTENT TROUGHING AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN AND EASTERN US, RESPECTIVELY. THE ONLY POTENTIAL LOW (AT
MOST, 15%) CHANCE OF RAIN MAY BE ON THURSDAY FROM A POSSIBLE WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, CAUSING PWATS
TO BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. IN THE
MEANTIME, BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY INTO TOMORROW, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30+ MPH, IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SIERRA MADRE. RESULTING
ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
MAINLY MODERATE HEAT RISKS THROUGH TOMORROW AS AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES PEAK AROUND 105-110 F, THOUGH SOME AREAS ACROSS THE INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES COULD EXPERIENCE MAJOR HEAT
RISKS THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO EASE A BIT TOMORROW NIGHT, SLIGHTLY LOWERING
APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 100-105 F WITH MINOR TO MODERATE
HEAT RISKS FROM TUESDAY INTO THE LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK WHILE
ACTUAL DAYTIME AIR TEMPERATURES CONTINUE RISING TO THE MID/UPPER
90S (UPPER 90S/LOW 100S ACROSS THE UPPER RGV) AND MID/UPPER 70S
OVERNIGHT (LOWER 80S CLOSER/ALONG THE COAST). WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MAY RESUME ALOFT NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH COULD CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO
NEAR 105-110 F WITH MAINLY MODERATE HEAT RISKS.
A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15-
20 KT, GUSTING TO 25-30 KT, ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE 18Z TAF
CYCLE, THOUGH MAY EASE JUST A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS (FROM PORT MANSFIELD AND NORTHWARD 0-60 NM
OUT) UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES ELSEWHERE, AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTS IN FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (4-6
FT). MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (3-5 FT)
SEAS ARE LIKELY TO RESUME BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, LIKELY
FOLLOWED BY LOW (AROUND 15%) CHANCES OF RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND, POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS A LOW (15-25%) CHANCE ON
THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 94 80 94 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 79 97 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 80 99 79 99 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 81 87 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 92 78 91 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
155-175.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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