897
FXUS64 KBRO 241718
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1218 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- DAILY LOW TO MODERATE (20 TO 40%) SEA BREEZE CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK
CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER TEXAS.
- A COOL FRONT IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A COOLER, WETTER
PATTERN TO THE REGION MORE TYPICAL OF THE FALL.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST
TEXAS, SUPPORTING AN EASTERLY FLOW TO OUR REGION ON THE UNDERSIDE OF
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW TO
MODERATE (20 TO 40%) DAILY CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-69C. HOWEVER, LOW
CHANCES DO SPREAD FURTHER INLAND MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY
WILL BE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, REACHING THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S EACH DAY, WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. WHILE NO SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS OR HEAT ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A MODERATE (LEVEL 2
OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK.
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND A
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH MAY BRING
A MUCH-WELCOME WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, AND ALSO USHER IN THE MORE SEASONABLE, RAINIER PATTERN THAT
IS MORE TYPICAL TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW TO
MODERATE RAIN CHANCES (BEYOND SEA BREEZE CONVECTION) WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD STARTING WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED.
A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS REMAINS AT AREA
BEACHES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS BUT A TEMPO HAS BEEN
ADDED FOR THE NEXT 3 HOURS FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONDITIONS COULD TEMPORARILY DETERIORATE AT
ANY AIRPORT THAT RECEIVES AN IMMEDIATE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD BE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE (2-4 FEET)
WAVE HEIGHTS. SCEC AND/OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 95 80 96 / 30 50 10 30
HARLINGEN 78 98 75 99 / 30 30 10 20
MCALLEN 79 98 78 99 / 20 40 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 98 76 101 / 20 30 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 89 82 89 / 40 30 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 94 78 94 / 30 30 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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