413
FXUS64 KBRO 111047
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
547 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 546 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE (10%)
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS REMNANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN HOT DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, EXCEPT FOR THE 80S AT THE BEACHES, WITH
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY, RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW (15% OR LESS) CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS OR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AND A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE ON FRIDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF THE REMNANTS OF CHRISTINA AND AN INVERTED
TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE FRIDAY WILL
ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2.0 INCHES WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTING EARLY SATURDAY. GIVEN
THE SURGE OF MOISTURE ARRIVING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, POPS WERE
BUMPED UP A BIT (NBM/ECMWF BLEND). THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF WILL
BE ON SATURDAY (30-70%). HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AROUND TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UPWARDS OF 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAIN WANES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATER AND
THE NEAR THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) FOR
SUNDAY.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE
(10%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE
INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS IN PLACE. A LONG WAVE
500MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING OVER THE PLAINS AND TEXAS, PUSHING
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE STALLING. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AND/OR
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CWA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. ADVERSE BEACH CONDITIONS, INCLUDING COASTAL RUNUP,
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SWELL INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE/TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE 12Z TAF CYCLE WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF VFR CONDITIONS
TAKING PLACE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS,
AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CONDITIONS TAKING PLACE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-15
KTS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. WINDS COULD GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25
KTS PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS MIXING HEIGHTS
INCREASE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY LEAD TO
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ADVERSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND
AS SWELLS INCREASE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON
THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY EVENING BECOMING LIKELY ON SATURDAY. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 82 93 80 / 20 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 94 79 92 77 / 20 10 20 10
MCALLEN 97 80 95 78 / 10 10 20 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 99 79 96 76 / 0 0 20 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 84 87 83 / 10 10 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 81 90 80 / 10 10 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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