862
FXUS64 KBRO 191710
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1210 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
- OVERALL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY NEAR THE COAST.
- CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND, BUT LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW PLACES SEEING
LOWER 90S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE
OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS WEEK, WEATHER SHOULD BE OVERALL FAIR FOR
THE REGION FOR MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THERE IS MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF
4) HEAT RISK THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, AS HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED HEAT INDICES.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING ALONG WITH SOME
REMNANT PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE (30 TO 50%) CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EAST OF I-69E. TOMORROW
LOOKS DRIER, BUT MODERATE (40-60%) RAIN CHANCES SPREAD FURTHER
WESTWARD FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK-WEEK AND THE EARLY WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES (20%)
RETURN SUNDAY FOR THE WESTERN RANCHLANDS AND THESE LOW RAIN CHANCES
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER
THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS, EXCEPTING
AREAS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF AND SHOWERS THAT HAPPEN TO MOVE
ASHORE OVER BRO OR HRL. FOR THIS REASON, A TEMPO HAS BEEN ADDED FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO COINCIDE WITH PEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
OVERALL ADVERSE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO MODERATE SEAS
(ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER GULF WATERS) THIS WEEK. THIS, IN TANDEM
WITH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS WILL CAUSE INTERMITTENT SCEC CONDITIONS
BOTH IN THE BAY AND THE GULF WATERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 87 74 87 / 10 0 20 60
HARLINGEN 70 88 70 88 / 10 0 10 50
MCALLEN 72 91 72 91 / 10 0 0 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 69 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 83 77 83 / 10 10 30 60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 84 73 85 / 10 0 20 60
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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