312
FXUS64 KBRO 112350 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
650 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 646 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE
(10%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND 7 DAYS
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS REMNANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SET UP.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
CONTINUE AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE INFLUENCING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWERS OR SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE REGION. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED, WITH BRIEF RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE, THE COMBINATION OF MILD NIGHTS, HOT AFTERNOONS, AND
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK
ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY
IF SPENDING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME OUTDOORS – TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE, STAY HYDRATED, AND WEAR LOOSE-FITTING, LIGHT
COLORED CLOTHING.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF NEAR
DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
RIDGE OVERHEAD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTH AND WEST
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE WEST TOWARDS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRIDAY AND TOWARDS EASTERN MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND. NHC MAINTAINS A LOW CHANCE (10%) OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND 7 DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CRISTINA WILL ALSO
TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 2.0 INCHES,
WITH PLUMES OF AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 2.5 INCHES, ARRIVING ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TO ADD TO THIS SET UP, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND USHER IN A RARE JUNE
COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT PERSISTS
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT AMOUNTS AND TIMING
OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME, BUT THE SET UP IS
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY LEAD TO NUISANCE OR ISOLATED
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE (AT A MINIMUM), ALTHOUGH
THE PRESENCE OF INSTABILITY AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WOULD
SUPPORT WAVES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS UPWARDS
OF 1 INCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY ROBUST ACTIVITY. FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS SPECIFIC RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND TIMING, BUT THIS SET UP (HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY) WOULD SUPPORT
HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
WITH ANY SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON A LOW POTENTIAL (10% OR
LESS) OF AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS!
OTHERWISE, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. ADVERSE BEACH
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING COASTAL RUNUP, CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SWELL
INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
MODERATE TO GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD
PREVAILS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY AT MFE. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS AND LOW TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN SCEC
CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ADVERSE MARINE
CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SWELL AS A TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES EASTERN MEXICO, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE GULF WATERS AND LAGUNA
MADRE BY THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 82 92 80 90 / 10 10 40 60
HARLINGEN 79 92 77 90 / 10 10 40 60
MCALLEN 81 96 79 92 / 10 10 30 80
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 97 77 93 / 0 10 10 50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 87 83 87 / 10 20 40 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 90 80 88 / 10 10 40 50
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...63-KC
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