145
FXUS64 KBRO 201139 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
639 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2019
DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS.
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
BREEZY TO WINDY ONSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS OF TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2019/
SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT): BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE BRO CWFA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FORCE OVER THE
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
EXPECTED TODAY, ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH ANOTHER ADVISORY
LIKELY TO BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
WILL STILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE, AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
EFFECT, IF ANY, IT WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE BACK OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LARGELY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE SYNOPTICS FOR DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, HELPING TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH IN THE LOWER RGV SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOST
LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES. THE COMBINATION OF HOT AFTERNOON
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 110 TO 114F IN SOME LOCATIONS, THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MODELS BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO, WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING TO KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MENTIONABLE (SLIGHT) RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AT AROUND 20% AS BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.
MARINE (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT): BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
OVER 4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 150 CDT/650 UTC.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ADVERSE DURING THIS
PERIOD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY LIKELY ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS LIKELY FOR THE
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PRESSURE LOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND DOWN SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENSION
OR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OR ALL OF THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THE BAY MAY SEE WINDS JUST UNDER
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES, BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY
NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FILLS IN A BIT BY MID WEEK
WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
SURFACE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN, IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ248>257-351-353.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page