021
FXUS64 KBRO 251050 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
550 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 549 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- VERY HOT, RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH INCREASING AREAS OF EXTREME
(LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS,
AND VERY HIGH EVAPORATION RATES.
- THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS, LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES, AND HOT TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
RISKS THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF
IH-69C/US-281; SOMETHING WORTH MONITORING IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
A MASSIVE AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 594-598 DAM HEAT DOME, THAT'S
RESULTING IN A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD HOTTER THAN NORMAL, RECORD
TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND FOR THAT MATTER THROUGH
THE MONTH OF AUGUST (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEATING INCLUDING OVER HARLINGEN AND
BROWNSVILLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HEAT DOME REMAINS PARKED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE IN THE HOTTEST PART OF
THE YEAR (I.E. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MCALLEN IS 100F DEGREES)
AND YET FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE 4-8F DEGREES
HOTTER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS EVEN FOR THE RGV'S STANDARDS IN THE DAYS
AHEAD. THAT SAID, WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH INCREASING
AREAS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
THE COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY STRONG EVAPORATION RATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A CONTINUATION OF WORSENING OR EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THIS STRETCH. A
COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
RIGHT NOW, THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW, NONETHELESS, THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING THAT NEEDS MONITORING IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
GENERALLY VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED WITH BREEZY DAYTIME
WINDS WITH STRONGER GUSTS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LOW SEAS (1 TO 2 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS) AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 98 81 98 80 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 103 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 104 80 104 79 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 105 78 105 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 81 89 81 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 79 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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