760
FXUS64 KBRO 140504
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1104 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1101 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
* FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) FOR AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER
IS OUT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
BARRIER ISLAND FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY.
* MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
* A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS.
* ANOTHER COOL FRONT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
* NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK; 20-30% POPS
IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AT LEAST ONE COOL FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND A
POTENTIAL SECOND WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MAJOR LARGE-SCALE
WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
THE 500 MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND WILL
FEATURE A DIPOLE TYPE PATTERN (WARM/HOT WEST U.S. VS. A COOL/COLD
EAST U.S. ALIGNMENT) WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO WESTERN CANADA/U.S. AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THIS
PATTERN COINCIDES WITH A NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION/-EPO,
A POSITIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA OSCILLATION/+PNA, AND A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION/-AO AS MODELS SUGGEST. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SETUP, AT LEAST ONE COOL/COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION MID WEEK THIS WEEK AND MAYBE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK.
AHEAD OF THIS COOL FRONT AND STILL UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT, WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO A BIT MORE SUNLIGHT OR INCOMING SOLAR
RADIATION COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS. HIGH TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F DEGREES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY (TOMORROW) WILL BE THE RISK/THREAT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT (RFD) FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OUTSIDE OF THE BARRIER
ISLAND FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS). THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S).
HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OUT OF
THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO NEAR 80F DEGREES ALONG THE RGV. THERE'S REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE MAGNITUDE AND WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND COOL/COLD FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEY LATER THIS WEEK. THE NBM (TYPICAL WARMER
BIAS) STILL HAS TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE. AS WE GET CLOSER IN
TIME, THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED TO ADDRESS THE WARMER BIAS IN THE FORECAST.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE DAYS AHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND/OR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARBY MAY YIELD
A RENEWED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. CURRENTLY, WE HAVE LOW GRADE (20-30%) POPS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY....VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM
IF NOT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS UP TO 5 KTS. DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-
15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COOL FRONT THAT
WILL BRING BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT INCREASED WAVE
HEIGHTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE
AND THE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RESULT.
MARINE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE THURSDAY EVENING WITH FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS (LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS) RETURNING FRIDAY
AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. MARINE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
ADVERSE ONCE AGAIN SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND OR INTO THE EARLY PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK IF A SECOND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS REALIZED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY. LATEST FORECAST IS SUGGESTING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(RH) VALUES TO DROP TO BETWEEN 20-35% ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. 20FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 7-15 KTS WITH
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS.
TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE HAS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A
"MODERATE FIRE DANGER RISK" FOR WEDNESDAY WITH AN AREA OF "HIGH FIRE
DANGER RISK" OVER MOST OF BROOKS, KENEDY, AND CAMERON COUNTIES AND
EASTERN WILLACY COUNTY. FURTHERMORE, ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
VALUES ARE GENERALLY ~70TH PERCENTILE.
FINALLY, IT HAS BEEN INCREDIBLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST
DROUGHT STATUS FROM THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS A LINE FROM JUST
WEST OF MCALLEN (WESTERN HALF OF HIDALGO) TO SARITA (INLAND KENEDY
COUNTY) AND POINTS WEST UNDER A D2 (SEVERE DROUGHT) TO D3 (EXTREME
DROUGHT). MEANWHILE, MUCH OF THE LOWER VALLEY IS UNDER A D0
(ABNORMALLY DRY) TO D1 (MODERATE DROUGHT) STATUS.
BOTTOMLINE, GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS INTO AN
EVEN DRIER COLUMN ABOVE THE SFC, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS,
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) FOR AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE BARRIER ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY FROM 6 AM CST TO 6 PM CST.
REMEMBER TO REVIEW FIRE WEATHER SAFETY TIPS AND PRACTICE FIRE
WEATHER SAFETY MEASURES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 53 78 51 68 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 48 78 45 69 / 20 0 0 0
MCALLEN 51 80 49 71 / 20 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 45 78 44 70 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 73 58 65 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 52 77 52 67 / 20 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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