999
FXUS64 KBRO 180539 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
- LOW (15-30%) CHANCES OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT SPREAD
FURTHER INLAND AND INCREASE TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE
ALONG/WEST US-281 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES MINIMIZE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY INCREASING AND EXPANDING ON SUNDAY TO REGION-WIDE
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES BY POSSIBLY NEXT TUESDAY.
- MAINLY MODERATE RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 2/4) ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RE-ESCALATE TO MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVEL
3/4) RISKS BY SUNDAY.
- A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
LOW (15-30%) CHANCES OF PASSING SHOWERS ALONG/EAST I-69 E TONIGHT
SPREAD FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY,
INCREASING TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE ALONG/WEST US-281 BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FLOWING ABOUT A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE BACK HALF OF A DEEP GULF MOISTURE PLUME WESTWARD. DUE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE CONTENT ANTICIPATED TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITHIN PASSING CONVECTION IS STILL
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY,
SLIPPERY ROADS AND NUISANCE PONDING. ADDITIONALLY, A SPS FOR HEAT
INDICES OF 108-111 F IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY FOR THE COASTAL AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERAGE,
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND MODEL TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, MID- AND LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DRY
CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY NIGHT TO NEAR OR
BELOW AVERAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF SINKING AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, THUS CUTTING DOWN ON RAIN CHANCES TO A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE
ON SATURDAY AND A LOW (15-20%) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER AND MID RGV ON SUNDAY. DECREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY RAISE TEMPERATURES AND EXPAND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 100S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS (UPPER 90S
ELSEWHERE) ON FRIDAY TO MOST AREAS ALONG/WEST I-69 E BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY; MAINLY MODERATE RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY DETERIORATE TO MOSTLY MAJOR BY MONDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO WANE AND MOISTURE PROFILES STEADILY MOISTEN
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BECOMES WEDGED BETWEEN A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE
FOR LOW (15-30%) CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG/EAST US-281 ON MONDAY TO
EXPAND AND BUILD TO REGION-WIDE LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40% OR GREATER)
CHANCES BY POSSIBLY TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO COOL SLIGHTLY AND IMPROVE HEAT RISKS TO MAINLY MODERATE BY LATE
WEEK. ADDITIONAL SPSS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE, BUT HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (3-5
FT) SEAS CONTINUE, BECOMING EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE (1-3 FT) SEAS LATER THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MINIMIZING TO LOW CHANCES INTO THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND. LOW
TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO A MEDIUM CHANCE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 95 79 95 78 / 20 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 97 75 98 74 / 20 0 10 0
MCALLEN 99 78 100 78 / 30 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 99 77 101 77 / 20 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 89 81 / 30 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 78 94 77 / 30 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page