270
FXUS64 KBRO 131107 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
507 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 506 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
* MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
* A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. AT
LEAST ONE COOL FRONT IS ON TRACK TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION MID
WEEK.
THROUGH TONIGHT, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS, WHICH HAVE MAINLY BEEN
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND AREAS WEST OF IH-69E,
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM THE WEST TO EAST.
FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MAJOR LARGE-
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE MIDWEEK THIS WEEK. THE
500 MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND WILL
FEATURE A DIPOLE TYPE PATTERN (WARM/HOT WEST U.S. VS. A COOL/COLD
EAST U.S. ALIGNMENT) WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO WESTERN CANADA/U.S. AND ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG TROUGHING DOWNSTREAM OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THIS
PATTERN COINCIDES WITH A NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION/-EPO,
A POSITIVE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA OSCILLATION/+PNA, AND A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION/-AO AS MODELS SUGGEST. THAT SAID, AT LEAST ONE
COOL/COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION MID WEEK
THIS WEEK.
AHEAD OF THIS COOL FRONT AND STILL UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT, TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF
THE WARMER DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO A BIT MORE
SUNLIGHT OR INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE DRY CONTINENTAL COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S).
HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OUT OF
THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S
TO NEAR 80F DEGREES ALONG THE RGV. THERE'S A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER OR NOT A SECOND COOL/COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY DOWN TO THE
VALLEY LATER THIS WEEK. THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED WARMER
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ACKNOWLEDGING THE FACT THAT THE SECOND FRONT
MAY NOT MAKE IT'S WAY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE VALLEY. WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE DAYS AHEAD. THAT SAID, HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN
RESPONSE TO A COOL/COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 69 52 78 52 / 10 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 67 49 78 46 / 10 10 0 0
MCALLEN 68 51 80 49 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 66 45 78 44 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 59 74 58 / 10 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 51 78 52 / 10 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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