043
FXUS64 KBRO 251816 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
116 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST. COULD SEE
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK NEXT WEEK.
- SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS/SEAS MAY SLIGHTLY
HINDER BOATING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE ZAPATA AND PARTS OF STARR
AND JIM HOGG IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVED CLOUD
COVERAGE AND THE STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION CONFIDENCE IS LOW
RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER SHOULD STORMS BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP THE
REST OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TO THOSE STORMS
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AS SUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE
DIGITS, AND GENERALLY RAIN-FREE FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION, HEAT RISK IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE BIG FOCUS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SEES A MIXTURE OF
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR THOSE DAYS. THUS IT WILL BE
IMPORTANT TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY SUCH AS LIMITING TIME OUTDOORS
AND DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER TO STAY HYDRATED.
SEVERAL OF THE CURRENT FORECAST MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. ALONG WITH THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY A LOW CHANCE (ABOUT 20%) OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW
FAR OUT THIS FRONT IS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS EVENT AT THE
CURRENT TIME, BUT FURTHER UPDATES WILL BE GIVEN BASED ON THE
TRENDS THE MODELS TAKE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW PERIODS WHERE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE
THROUGH THAT COULD RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CEILINGS. SOME OF THE
MODELS DO HINT AT A BIT OF FOG TONIGHT AND AROUND SUNRISE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT DENSE PERSIST FOG WILL DEVELOP GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE REMAINING LIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
MODERATE TO BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. BRIEF
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 75 91 75 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 93 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 97 75 99 76 / 10 20 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 97 73 100 74 / 20 20 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 75 83 76 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 73 89 74 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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