420
FXUS64 KBRO 041126 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
526 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
* RAIN-FREE AND MAINLY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
* A COLD FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
* A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM CST TO 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
* ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL (SEE MARINE SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS).
* TEMPERATURES REBOUND FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
RAIN-FREE AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH OVERALL
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
LATEST SFC OBS/ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT IS CONNECTED TO A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500 MB PATTERN, FEATURING AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 585
DAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A MAJOR AIRMASS CHANGE NOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS NOT ANTICIPATED
GIVEN THE LACK OF A CROSS-POLAR FLOW AND INSTEAD A TRACK OVER
SHALLOWER COLD REGIONS.
HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 MPH
GUSTING BETWEEN 25-35 MPH, DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 20-45% WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL AND
ISLAND COUNTIES FROM 10 AM CST TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY (AND NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS) AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL DURING THE DAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA. THURSDAY WILL BE THE
ONLY DAY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S) AS THE
COOLER AIRMASS/COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) REGIME WILL FULLY BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION.
A WARMING TREND QUICKLY RESUMES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WINDS
RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH. FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO
THE MID 80S MOST PLACES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 50S/60S THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE 30S/40S ARE EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVING BY LATE THIS MORNING,
BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FROPA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE IMPROVING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF
WATERS FROM 9AM WEDNESDAY TO 9AM THURSDAY. FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 MPH GUSTING BETWEEN 25-35 MPH, DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (I.E. D2-SEVERE TO D3-EXTREME DROUGHT MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF IH-69C AND D0-ABNORMALLY DRY TO D1 MODERATE
DROUGHT EAST OF IH-69C), LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 20-45% WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT (RFD) IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL AND ISLAND COUNTIES FROM 10 AM CST TO 6
PM CST WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 49 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 71 44 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 74 46 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 42 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 56 63 53 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 50 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page