766
FXUS64 KBRO 120538
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL LOCK A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY MIX DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WHICH IN TURN PRODUCE MORE GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, THE WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
EVEN THROUGH THERE IS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION, THE
CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN 20%) FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. ONCE THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DOES FINALLY MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION NEXT WEEK, CHANCES OF RAIN WILL FURTHER DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 10%. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING THE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA COULD APPROACH THE 80S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S, HOWEVER A FEW PLACES IN STARR AND ZAPATA
COUNTIES COULD BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THE HEAT RISK FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL MOSTLY BE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR THE
REGION. THE HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 105-108
AND THUS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
INCREASING SWELL AFFECTING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY....VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PERSIST THROUGH
THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. THERE COULD BE A FEW MVFR CLOUDS AROUND FROM TIME
TO TIME.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 10-15 KTS. DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
A LOW-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A
THERMAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO OCCUR OVER
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS BEING NEEDED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF THIS,
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 93 80 93 79 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 95 77 96 76 / 10 0 10 0
MCALLEN 96 80 97 79 / 10 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 98 78 98 77 / 10 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 80 87 80 / 0 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 91 78 / 0 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page