413
FXUS64 KBRO 220540 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1240 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MID-
UPPER RGV.
- OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY, SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF
RAIN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD MINOR RISKS
OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) CONTINUE.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY AS DEEP MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST, BRINGING WELCOME RAIN TO THE
COAST AND NE RANCHLANDS THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS MOISTURE ENCROACHES
WESTWARD, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH AS IT TRAVELS INLAND, WITH LOW TO MODERATE POPS (30-60%),
HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE MID-UPPER RGV. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH, BUT ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO 2.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH FRIDAY. SATURDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF MOIST AIR, BRINGING LOW POPS (20% OR
LESS) TO THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
LIGHT WINDS WITH MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD DECKS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST BRO RADAR INDICATES A
CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EXTENDING TO NEAR THE
COAST. THIS AREA OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, WILL MAINTAIN PROB30S AT ALL RGV
AERODROMES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY ALLOW
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS OVENIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS
LINGERING THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY AT MFE. IN
ADDITION, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH SEAS DECREASING TO
SLIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60%) CHANCE OF
RAIN THURSDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE COAST. OCCASIONAL
MODERATE GUSTS MAY BRING INTERMITTENT CAUTION CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD TO
MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, RETURNING
ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 83 68 86 72 / 50 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 84 65 86 69 / 50 0 0 0
MCALLEN 87 68 90 69 / 50 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 88 66 90 66 / 40 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 72 80 76 / 40 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 67 83 70 / 40 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...63-KC
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