266
FXUS64 KBRO 302331 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 623 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
* MAINLY RAIN-FREE AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK; LOW, NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF A ROGUE SEA BREEZE
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MID TO LATE WEEK.
* PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-110F DEGREES WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS EACH DAY.
* FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
MAINLY RAIN-FREE AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY HOTTER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD OR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 591-594 DAM SUB-TROPICAL HEAT
RIDGE WILL MAIN FIXTURE DRIVING OUR HOT, DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A DANGEROUS, RECORD-SETTING HEATWAVE IS UNFOLDING AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS WEEK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HEAT DOME REST OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
NEXT WEEK, THE HEAT DOME RETREATS WESTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
REGION. WITH THE HEAT RIDGE DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
WILL BE SPARED FROM THE BRUNT OF THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BRING A LOW, YET NON-ZERO
PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION (SHOWERS AND STORMS)
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF THIS WEEK.
AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SFC WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS HIGHLIGHTED, SINCE THE HEAT RIDGE/DOME WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD, TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN NORMAL LEVELS. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 90S CLOSE TO THE COAST TO THE
LOWER 100S FAR WEST/INLAND EACH DAY. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EACH NIGHT.
ULTIMATELY, THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT
RISK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
RANGING BETWEEN 100-110F DEGREES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
LOW (LESS THAN 20%) CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 94 79 94 / 10 0 10 10
HARLINGEN 77 95 76 95 / 10 10 10 20
MCALLEN 79 98 79 98 / 0 0 0 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 80 87 / 10 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 91 77 90 / 10 10 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...69-HK
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