588
FXUS64 KBRO 072338 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
638 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020
DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT ONLY TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 229 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020/
SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT): BROWNSVILLE RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE, HOT, HUMID AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. A MID-LEVEL
WEAKNESS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
REPLACED BY A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 90 AT THE BEACHES, MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE EAST
AND 100 TO 106 DEGREES IN THE WEST. SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDEX
VALUES MAY WARRANT A SHORT DURATION HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF
HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. EXCEPT FOR
STREAMER SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST, NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): SYNOPTIC SCALE CONDITIONS
AFFECTING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER RGV ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS TEND TO
MAINTAIN A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS/NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL IN TURN
REINFORCE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
ASSOCIATED GENERALLY STABLE, ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE AREA.
INTRUSIONS OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL AT TIMES CAUSE GULF HIGH PRESSURE TO WEAKEN OR SHIFT
POSITION, RESULTING IN THE LOCAL VARIATION OF WIND DIRECTION,
GENERALLY BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW AND SILENT IN THE FORECAST,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE INTERIOR RIDGE WILL TEND
TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA A BIT MORE TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF
THE LONG TERM, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES NUDGING HIGHER AND MORE
ABOVE AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THIS WILL BE
COUNTERED IN PART BY SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS, RESULTING IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 103 TO 108 RANGE. A FEW AREAS IN THE
STARR/ZAPATA COUNTY AREAS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS, NEAR 110
DEGREES.
MARINE:
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A ROBUST THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTERACTS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED ON THE LAGUNA MADRE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ON THE GULF WATERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL CONTRAST WITH THE HIGHER PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF, SUPPORTING A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AT TIMES TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 93 80 90 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 80 96 81 93 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 79 98 80 96 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 80 100 81 98 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 104 80 102 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 83 87 / 20 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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