243
FXUS64 KBRO 310527 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- VERY HOT, RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH INCREASING AREAS OF EXTREME
(LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS, AND VERY HIGH EVAPORATION RATES.
- THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS, LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES,
AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER RISKS THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- DAY-TO-DAY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE COULD EMERGE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK;
CURRENTLY HAVE LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES NEXT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY (SEPT 6-7); BEST CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF IH-69C/US-281.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES (IN SOME CASES RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-
BREAKING), MAINLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
THEME THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE
PERSISTENT, HIGHLY ADVERTISED, AND IMPACTFUL HEAT DOME SHIFTED
EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION. IT NOW STRETCHES FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID SOUTH AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. WHILE THE
RELENTLESS HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THIS HEAT
DOME WILL BRING A RENEWED EPISODE OF DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS THE PARTS
OF THE MIDWEST INCLUDING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS WEEK.
THE CORE OF THE HEAT FROM THIS 591-594 DAM HEAT DOME WILL BE TO OUR
NORTH (FROM CENTRAL TEXAS AND POINTS NORTHWARD). REGARDLESS OF ITS
NORTHWARD POSITION, THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A
POSITIVE FEEDBACK LOOP FROM THE VERY DRY SOILS WILL AID IN A
CONTINUATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THIS WEEK. SOME OF THESE TEMPERATURES
COULD BE RECORD-BREAKING (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
THAT SAID, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO MID 100S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INCLUDING BROWNSVILLE AND HARLINGEN THROUGH
THIS WEEK. THE ONLY AREA FOR SOME RELIEF WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER SOUTH PADRE ISLAND, WHERE HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
90S TO MID 80S. ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 105-115F DEGREES EACH DAY
THIS WEEK. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPSS) OR HEAT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM AS WELL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. GIVEN THE
SITUATION, WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO INCREASING AREAS OF
EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS AMONGST FORECAST MODELS
THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COULD
INCREASE. THAT SAID, DAY-TO-DAY SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
MONDAY (SEPT 5-7). CURRENTLY WE HAVE LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SUNDAY AND THE FOLLOWING MONDAY
(SEPT 6-7). THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST
(I.E. ALONG AND EAST OF IH-69C/US-281).
BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS, ANTECEDENT DRY SOILS,
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES GETTING AROUND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT (RFD) CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT BRO
AND HRL WHILE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE AT MFE. WINDS
LOOK TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING SHIFTING
MORE EASTERLY WITH GUSTS INCREASING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LOW SEAS (1 TO 2 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS) AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE BAY AND GULF WATERS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
A BROAD AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 591-594 DAM SUB-TROPICAL HEAT RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THIS WEEK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A POSITIVE FEEDBACK
LOOP BETWEEN THE HEAT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO AID IN
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES AT TIMES THIS WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE RECORD HIGHS FROM AUGUST 31ST TO SEPTEMBER 4
FROM OUR THREE OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM AUGUST 31ST TO SEPTEMBER 4TH:
MONDAY, AUGUST 31, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 103F (2023)
HARLINGEN: 104F (1958)
MCALLEN: 104F (2023, 2017)
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 100F (2023, 2020)
HARLINGEN: 103F (1928, 1952)
MCALLEN: 106F (2018)
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 99F (2018)
HARLINGEN: 104F (1928, 1937)
MCALLEN: 106F (2018)
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 102F (2011)
HARLINGEN: 106F (2011)
MCALLEN: 106F (2011)
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 103F (2011, 2000)
HARLINGEN: 107F (2011)
MCALLEN: 108F (2011)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 98 80 98 81 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 102 76 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 104 80 104 80 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 105 78 105 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 81 90 81 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 78 96 79 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...60-BE
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