763
FXUS64 KBRO 101709
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1209 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK,
WITH WIND SPEEDS PICKING UP TUESDAY DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
- THERE IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- A STRONGER FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND,
WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A SECONDARY FRONT ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS,
WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LINE MAY EXTEND TUESDAY
EVENING. THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS RAIN CHANCES AROUND
20-30% FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION NORTH
OF THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, THOUGH THE 0Z RUN OF THE HRRR
DOES HAVE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LIKELY OVERNIGHT, INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE DECREASING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL LIKELY
DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OR BE SUSTAINED
ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AMPLE WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT
COULD SUPPORT STRONG, BUT LIKELY SUB-SEVERE, THUNDERSTORMS IF ANY
CONVECTION IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS INITIAL FRONT WILL REMAIN HOT WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. HOWEVER, THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH DRIER WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL TO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW ENOUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE STRONGER FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY, BEFORE
GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE 90S OVER THE WEEKEND. STRONGER WINDS
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 20-30% COULD POSE A RISK FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY....BY AND LARGE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. THERE COULD BE A FEW MVFR CLOUDS AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME, PARTICULARLY DURING THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME
HOURS.
THE MAIN CONCERN TO AVIATION OPS THROUGH TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS.
STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40
KNOTS WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH TODAY, AMID AN ENHANCED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT, STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS (LLJ) WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 25-40
KNOTS, AND INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE STRONG LLJ OVERHEAD DESPITE THE DECREASING
MIXING HEIGHTS UPON SUNSET. TONIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
10-15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL START OFF WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE SOUTH 10-15
KNOTS BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOLLOWING A COOL
FROPA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY
REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST OF TOW COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. HOWEVER, STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SECOND FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 94 63 78 / 10 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 70 95 58 80 / 10 10 0 0
MCALLEN 73 96 62 82 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 68 94 61 81 / 20 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 84 64 72 / 10 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 92 61 76 / 10 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253>255-353>355.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page