681
FXUS64 KBRO 091733
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1233 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* MODERATE TO HIGH (40-70%) CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY, DECREASING TO
LOW TO MODERATE (30-40%) FOR SATURDAY.
* THE MOST LIKELY RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY MORNING HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARD AND SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 1.75 INCHES,
BUT COULD RANGE BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO 2.5 INCHES.
* DRIER CONDITIONS AND GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
WINDIER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
A DISTURBED PATTERN COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ONGOING, AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE WEEK WILL
BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN
MODERATE TO HIGH (AROUND 40-70%). THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO KEEP DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS, NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED.
ANY RAIN RECEIVED IS EXPECTED TO BE BENEFICIAL.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE EARLIER PART
OF THE DAY, AS THE LAST OF THE STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH A
SMALL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON, BEFORE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SOMEWHAT QUIET DOWN BY
FRIDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TO BELOW 30% IN MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES EXPECTED (30-40%)
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FORMS ON SATURDAY WILL
PRIMARILY BE LIGHT AND SHOWERY, WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF BY
EVENING.
RAIN TOTALS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
SIGNIFICANT AS THEY WERE LAST WEEKEND DUE TO OVERALL LIGHTER AND
MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NBM DESI
GUIDANCE, THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNT THAT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY MORNING HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO BETWEEN 1
AND 1.75 INCHES. HOWEVER, SOME LOCALIZED AREAS THAT RECEIVE
HEAVIER RAINFALLS COULD RECEIVE AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 2.5 INCHES.
ALSO, BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION, OTHER AREAS MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY RAIN AT ALL OR JUST
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
A PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TREK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO AREAS FURTHER TO
OUR NORTH. IT IS WORTH A QUICK MENTION THAT, THOUGH NBM GUIDANCE
HAS CONSISTENTLY PLACED SUNDAY'S POPS BELOW 15% FOR ALMOST ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS (TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRYING TREND AS RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN AND OVERALL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE), EARLY
EXPERIMENTAL RRFS CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF THE MEXICAN SIERRA MADRES THAT COULD
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IS MONITORING A POTENTIAL SEVERE RISK FOR MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO A DRYLINE SETUP. IT
WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT BASED ON NBM GUIDANCE THAT THIS RISK WOULD
NOT IMPACT OUR AREA DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION FURTHER
SOUTH. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE NEW SHORTER-RANGE CAM GUIDANCE, IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT ANY RISK WILL
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE VEERING
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE
WARMING TREND. WIND SPEEDS COULD ALSO INCREASE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK
AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH THE
ADDITION OF TEMPOS FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS THAT COULD TEMPORARILY
DETERIORATE CONDITIONS. SHOWER POTENTIAL CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS COULD ALSO LOWER TO MVFR (MORE CONFIDENT AT MFE AND HRL)
BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY FAVORABLE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO MEDIUM WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAPPEN TO FORM OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCEC CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 70 83 71 84 / 50 60 20 30
HARLINGEN 66 83 66 86 / 50 60 20 30
MCALLEN 70 85 71 87 / 60 60 20 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 68 84 69 87 / 60 60 20 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 77 72 78 / 50 60 20 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 82 69 83 / 60 60 10 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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