995  
FXUS64 KBRO 131157 AAA  
AFDBRO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX  
557 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
INFRARED SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE  
THAT EARLY MORNING FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND IS PRIMARILY IMPACTING  
THE LOWER VALLEY AERODROME SITES FEATURING AS LOW AS IFR TO LIFR  
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL  
AT MFE. FOG SHOULD ERODE MID-MORNING AND WILL LEAD TO A NICE DAY  
WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. PORTIONS  
OF THE LOWER VALLEY MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY/CEILING  
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 319 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2019/  
 
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY): BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FEATURING A DRY WEST-  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE EXPECTED  
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING  
GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY  
DEVELOP AND WE'LL MONITOR THE LATEST SURFACE OBS FOR A POSSIBLE  
DENSE FOG ADVISORY, IF NECESSARY. A WARM DAY WILL BE EXPECTED AS  
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S EXCEPT ALONG THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DID ELECT TO ADJUST THE  
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS INHERITED  
FORECAST AS THE LATEST ECMWF AND HRRR HAVE TRENDED WARMER. DID  
DECIDE TO ALSO RAISE THE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WHERE A FEW  
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY, MAY REACH UP TO  
AROUND 90 DEGREES UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE  
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH  
LOWER SIGNAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE REGION, AT THIS TIME.  
 
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): NORTHWEST UPPER  
LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY  
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS  
EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF  
MEXICO. WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PANHANDLE  
AND RED RIVER VALLEY, EXPECT A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT TO DEVELOP ON  
SUNDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WITH THE INCREASING  
HEIGHTS AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE  
AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
LATE MONDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE ANOTHER PACIFIC BASED FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, SURFACE WINDS WILL  
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF SIMILAR TO THE  
LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY LOW AGAIN  
WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL RIGHT ALONG I69E OR EAST,  
 
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS A BIT TRICKY TO PINPOINT AT  
THIS TIME AS THERE IS SOME FAIRLY LARGE TIMING INCONSISTENCIES  
WITH THE SYNOPTICS BEYOND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE  
PROGRESSIVE MOVING THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE DOWN THE I40 CORRIDOR.  
THE ECM HAS THIS WAVE BUT A DAY OR TWO BEHIND WITH A MORE  
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. OVERALL A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM MID TO  
LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL IS VERY LOW GIVEN THE TIMING  
ISSUES, HOWEVER, EITHER SOLUTION, WHETHER EARLIER OR LATER WOULD  
SUGGEST POPS WOULD BE REQUIRED WHEN THE PARENT WAVE AND SURFACE  
FRONT MOVE THROUGH/OVER THE REGION.  
 
MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY): FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TODAY INTO SATURDAY AS LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR SEAS TO  
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE. SURFACE WINDS START TO GRADUALLY  
UPTICK FROM OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN LOCALLY.  
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS  
TO START THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS LOW  
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHS ON SUNDAY LEADING TO LIKELY SCA FOR ALL  
COASTAL WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH DURING THE  
DAY ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS VERY ACTIVE WITH  
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN  
ELEVATED WITH EITHER GALE OR SCA THRESHOLDS BEING MET THROUGH  
MIDWEEK BEFORE SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE  
WEEK. EXPECTED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WITH THE  
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ251-  
254>257-351.  
 
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV  
 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRADY/62  
LONG TERM...FRYE/55  
UPPER AIR...SCHROEDER/53  
PUBLIC SERVICE...CACERES/63  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page