389
FXUS64 KBRO 090443 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1043 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 953 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- ONE LAST UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NEAR-
RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
- CHANCES OF RAIN BRIEFLY INCREASE TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%)
CHANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE MIDDLE RGV AHEAD OF
AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CRASHING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
ISSUANCES OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY.
- A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH OTHER EXPECTED COASTAL HAZARDS.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT HIGH
WINDS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING, LEAVING MUCH LIGHTER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE,
REACHING INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES F NEAR AND ALONG THE
COAST IN THE LOWER RGV. THE NEXT UPSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
DEVELOPING AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A COLD FRONT ATTACHED, EXTENDING INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN TEXAS. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT,
EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, IS LIKELY
TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING,
POSSIBLY TO THE US 281/I-69 CORRIDOR BY THE EVENING, SHIFTING
WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. BEFORE THEN, FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHS REMAIN AROUND 15-17 DEGREES F ABOVE AVERAGE, POTENTIALLY
EVEN WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS INLAND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, WITH NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS LIKELY. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED.
AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PUSHING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS LIFT ENHANCES ACROSS
THE REGION, PROBABILITIES OF RAIN INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO
A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MIDDLE RGV WHILE THE REST OF
THE REGION SEES A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE. THIS SOLUTION ALIGNS WELL
WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RAP, WHICH FEATURE A LINE OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. CURRENT EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
MIDDLE RGV RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10-0.15 OF AN INCH, THOUGH
SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HALF AN INCH WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
IN THE LOWER RGV. FURTHER WEST, CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE TO A LOW
(15-30%) CHANCE, LOWEST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COULD DROP FROM THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE 50S/60S BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS RESULT FROM THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT, PEAKING WITH WINDS OF
AROUND 15-20 MPH, GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH, THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. AS THE WINDS ENHANCE,
FUNNELING COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, POPS DECREASE TO A
LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BY SATURDAY EVENING, DROPPING
OFF ON SUNDAY BUT CONTINUING ON MONDAY AS COASTAL LOW TRIES TO
DEVELOP, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES OF RAIN, THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WINDS INCREASE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROP INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE,
CONTINUED COASTAL TROUGHING LEADS TO AN ADDITIONAL LOW (15-30%)
CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
60S SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S/50S
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH POSSIBLY THURSDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER FRONT IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS WAVES OF 3-4 FEET WITH 7 SECOND PERIODS LEAD TO A
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. AS THE FRONT BARRELS THROUGH
INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS (0-60 NM
OUT), STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LARGE
BREAKING WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS BY SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
AS LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL TONIGHT AND INCREASE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION, IFR AT KHRL AND LIFR OR IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KMFE DURING THE PRE-DAWN TO DAWN HOURS, WHILE
BROKEN VFR CEILINGS LIKELY PREVAIL AT KBRO. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS, BY
LATE FRIDAY MORNING, IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET FRIDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (3-4 FEET) SEAS
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, CHANCES OF
RAIN FROM DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG
AN ARRIVING STRONG COLD FRONT BRIEFLY INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN TO
A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (40-70%) CHANCE OF RAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLY NEAR-GALE FORCE GUSTS ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT, CONTINUING FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF SATURDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO ROUGH (8-10 FEET) SEAS ALONG WITH A
LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING INTO OR THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT SUNDAY TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE (3-4 FEET) SEAS
BECOMING EASTERLY ON TUESDAY. A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN
CONTINUES, DECREASING POSSIBLY NEXT WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
POTENTIAL COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 70 86 65 67 / 0 0 40 40
HARLINGEN 66 87 62 63 / 0 0 30 30
MCALLEN 69 89 64 65 / 0 0 30 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 64 88 60 63 / 0 0 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 79 67 68 / 0 0 40 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 84 65 66 / 0 0 40 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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