122
FXUS64 KBRO 112332
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
532 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 531 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
- A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DUE TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE
WEATHER.
- ADVERSE BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES.
- BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL ARRIVE BY MID WEEK AND LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. ADVERSE MARINE, BEACH, AND FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MID JANUARY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. BY THIS EVENING, WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE AND FALL BELOW 10 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
AND ALLOW FOR IMPROVED BEACH, MARINE, AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
BY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES TO
TAKE EFFECT TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, AND HAVE OPTED TO NUDGE LOW
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE REGION, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. HOWEVER, THE
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT MID WEEK SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL REACH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES AMONG
DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE, AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL, ADVERSE BEACH, MARINE, AND
FIRE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN, AS WELL AS LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY....VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH 5-15 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE AS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL COME
TO AN END THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 49 69 53 68 / 10 20 10 10
HARLINGEN 46 68 47 68 / 10 20 10 10
MCALLEN 49 69 50 68 / 10 20 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 45 67 46 66 / 10 20 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 55 66 60 66 / 20 20 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 49 68 53 68 / 10 20 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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