027
FXUS64 KBRO 082319 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
619 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 20%) CONTINUE TOMORROW ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVES
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS
SURF, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, AND ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES AND GULF WATERS.
- MOSTLY MINOR RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) BECOME
MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) BY NEXT MONDAY AS DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
OUR PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
HAS FINALLY COME TO AN END ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH ONLY
BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AS MOISTURE CONTENT CONTINUES TO DROP AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS, WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IF ANY ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS, BUT CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW EACH DAY. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH
AFTERNOON. LOWER HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT AS THE HUMIDITY BECOMES ELEVATED, WE MAY
START TO SEE TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT INDICES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE COLUMBUS DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
THE HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HURRICANE
ISAIAS CONTINUES ITS COURSE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. INCREASING SWELL WILL BRING HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, HIGH SURF,
AND COASTAL FLOODING. TIDAL RUNUP IS LIKELY ALONG THE BEACH,
ESPECIALLY AROUND PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE… AND RUNUP WILL LIKELY
REACH THE DUNES ALONG NARROWER BEACHES. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES,
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES, AND/OR HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS
ARE LIKELY AS EARLY AS TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF A STREAMER OR SEA BREEZE SHOWER INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO HURRICANE ISAIAS AS IT
TRAVELS NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF OR ALL OF THE GULF WATERS AS SEAS
INCREASE UPWARDS OF 5-7 FEET LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
BEFORE DECREASING THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 75 89 74 90 / 0 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 70 91 70 91 / 0 10 0 0
MCALLEN 73 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 71 93 69 93 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 86 79 86 / 0 20 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 87 74 88 / 0 20 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ170-175.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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