793
FXUS64 KBRO 301744
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1244 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES, NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING, ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
- ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DURING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING A DISTURBANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
GULF, WITH A MEDIUM (50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN 48
HOURS. NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS,
WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
THE 500MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST US, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MID-SUMMER LIKE HEAT AND A
PERSISTENT INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO TEXAS INTO LABOR DAY
WEEKEND. WEAKER PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST AROUND THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE MAY COMBINE WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE TO INITIATE
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (ROUGHLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT)
BEGINNING FRIDAY.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CONTINUING TO MONITOR A
DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WORKING WNW WITH A MEDIUM (50
PERCENT) CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN 48 HOURS. ANY DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF COULD POTENTIALLY CREATE MORE SUBSIDENCE
LOCALLY, LEANING INTO WARMER, DRIER, AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS MID WEEK, AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST.
THE ADDED HUMIDITY ON TOP OF ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO
EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS EACH
DAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO RELIEF EACH NIGHT. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, GENERALLY WORKING
WESTWARD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A DAILY CHOP IS EXPECTED ON THE BAY
NEXT WEEK WITH GULF SEAS OF GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FEET. THERE IS A LOW
(LESS THAN 25 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF MOVING WNW TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH A MEDIUM
(50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN 48 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 98 81 98 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 77 102 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 81 104 80 104 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 105 78 105 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 90 81 90 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 96 79 96 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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