830
FXUS64 KBRO 040332
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1032 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1027 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
* DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAY-TO-DAY DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG
A SEA BREEZE; BEST TIMING WILL BE BETWEEN 11 AM TO 5 PM CDT.
* THERE STILL REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING,
THERE'S A MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
* BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL,
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
* A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE
FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY.
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK; HEAT RISK HOWEVER COULD BEGIN
INCREASING LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 5) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
DAILY TO NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
SEA BREEZE ON PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORYLINE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE
DRIER THAN THIS WEEK OVERALL AS RAIN PROBABILITIES AND COVERAGE WILL
BE LOWER NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO THIS WEEK.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS IN DEPICTING CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 1.8-2.5", SOME 2-3 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL, ELEVATED
INSTABILITY VALUES, AND INCREASED SFC CONVERGENCE FROM A SEA
BREEZE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPPORT DAY-TO-DAY TO NEAR DAY-TO-DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. COVERAGE GENERALLY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EACH
DAY. THE BEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING.
IN GENERAL, THROUGH SATURDAY THERE REMAINS A LOW-MEDIUM (20-50%)
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY WILL PRESENT THE
GREATEST RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SEA
BREEZE INTERACTION AND SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES. THAT'S WHERE WE HAVE
MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (HIGHEST
FAVORING AREAS WEST OF IH-69C/US-281). BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SINCE THE
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN THE HOURS
OF 11 AM TO 5 PM CDT EACH DAY.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED NUISANCE PONDING OR FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN YOUR TYPICAL
LOW-LYING, URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
(WPC) HAS NORTHWESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES TO HAVE ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS IN THE
DAYS AHEAD.
DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAY-TO-DAY RAIN CHANCES COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
RAIN PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT ARE MAXED OUT AT 20% EACH OF
THOSE DAYS.
THE DAILY OR NEAR DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HELP TO KEEP THE HEAT IN CHECK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BALANCE OUT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RUN BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 70S (80S ACROSS SE CAMERON COUNTY) THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HEAT RISK COULD BEGIN PICKING UP LATE NEXT WEEKEND (SUNDAY) THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IF DRIER WEATHER
CONDITIONS OCCUR. CURRENTLY, WE HAVE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 5) HEAT
RISK DEVELOPING OVER MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY
AND PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES ARE PROGGED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 100-110F DEGREES LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY....VFR CONDITIONS, BY AND LARGE, WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. THERE COULD BE A FEW MVFR CLOUDS AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME.
TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY. HAVE PROB30 GROUPS TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST TIMING BEING
BETWEEN 18Z-23Z/THURSDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE
OVER A TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITIES OF REDUCING CIGS/VSBYS.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND MAYBE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS.
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TREND TOWARDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
OUTSIDE OF THE DAILY OR NEAR DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH NEXT TUESDAY, ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS SUCH
AS SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 90 79 90 / 10 30 10 30
HARLINGEN 74 89 75 90 / 10 30 10 50
MCALLEN 77 92 77 91 / 10 20 10 60
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 92 75 90 / 20 20 30 60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 85 81 86 / 10 20 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 88 78 88 / 10 20 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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