432
FXUS64 KBRO 211105 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
605 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 604 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- DAILY ABOVE AVERAGE AND RECORD BREAKING/TYING TEMPERATURES,
MAXIMIZING AROUND 100 TO 107+ F, WITH HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO
111+ F, CONTINUE MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISKS (LEVELS 2/4 AND
3/4).
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AND INLAND PORTIONS OF CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES,
EXCEPTING THE BARRIER ISLANDS, FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR
HEAT INDICES OF 108 TO 111 F, POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY HIGHER.
ADDITIONAL SPSS OR HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK.
- LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND, AT TIMES, BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE AN ENHANCED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENTS (RFDS) ARE POSSIBLE.
- WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TROPICS AND UPDATES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) ON TROPICAL STORM BERTHA,
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF, AND ITS POTENTIAL
IMPACTS, IF ANY, LATER THIS WEEK.
- A LOW RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED RISKS OF RIP CURRENTS, ELEVATED SURF AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
A 594+ DAM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS SLIPS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 597+
DAM BY THURSDAY BEFORE RETREATING TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT MAY PROGRESS EASTWARD OR STRETCH BACK TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, THIS SPELLS OUT CONTINUED
ABOVE AVERAGE AND NEAR RECORD HEAT AS WELL AS BREEZY AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES MAXIMIZING AROUND 100 TO 107+ F ACROSS
NEARLY ALL INLAND AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT 2 DAYS COULD FEATURE THE HOTTEST AIR TEMPERATURES, WITH
MID/UPPER 100S ALONG/WEST OF US-281 ON TUESDAY EXPANDING TO
ALONG/WEST OF I-69 E ON WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING, HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID
100S (100 TO 106 F) ARE ANTICIPATED. IN GENERAL, MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEAT RISKS PERSIST AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGE AROUND 105 TO
111+ F. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHTER SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WHICH LESSENS THE CHANCE OF RFD
CRITERIA BEING MET, BUT LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT AND BREEZY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONDITIONS, GUSTING TO AS MUCH AS
30 MPH, STILL RUN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND AN
ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION IS URGED WHEN HANDLING FLAMES DUE TO DRY OR
NORMAL FUELS ACROSS THE REGION. NONETHELESS, RFDS STILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE MEANTIME, A SPS IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR
THE INLAND AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY
COUNTIES FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108 TO 111 F, POSSIBLY REACHING A FEW
DEGREES WARMER BRIEFLY. ADDITIONAL SPSS AND HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TROPICS-WISE, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR TROPICAL STORM BERTHA, CURRENTLY
SITUATED OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH. NHC STILL
PROJECTS A WESTWARD TURN TOWARDS COASTAL LOUISIANA BY WEDNESDAY
AND POTENTIALLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS WEEK AS
IT PROGRESSES ALONG ITS WESTWARD TRACK INTO THIS WEEKEND,
POSSIBLY REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OR SLIGHTLY INLAND.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF OUR CWA IS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CONE OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. YET, THERE STILL EXISTS A WIDE RANGE OF
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. AT THE VERY
LEAST, CLOUD COVERAGE COULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING, AT MOST, A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN DURING
THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY, HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST. YET, AGAIN,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW AND HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A LOW RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, POTENTIAL LONG PERIOD
SWELL AND PERHAPS ELEVATED SURF, GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM BERTHA,
COULD ARRIVE TO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK;
ELEVATED RISKS OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS, HIGHER SURF AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY LEAD TO MORE DANGEROUS
BEACH AND SWIMMING CONDITIONS, DESPITE THE INVITING APPEARANCE
AMIDST SWELTERING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY MID MORNING PERSISTING
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, OCCASIONALLY FRESH, WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4 FT) SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH
COULD INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK, DEPENDENT ON ANY SWELL THAT
DEVELOPS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA, SITUATED OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. WE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE A LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING THEREAFTER AND DIMINISHING
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH
TO THE FORECAST BY THE LATER PARTS OF THIS WEEK AND WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL STORM AS NHC
PROJECTS BERTHA TAKING ON A TRACK TO THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY WEAKENING BACK TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER IN THE WEEK, POTENTIALLY LINGERING NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST OR SLIGHTLY INLAND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 98 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 104 74 104 76 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 107 77 107 78 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 107 75 107 78 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 79 89 80 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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