806
FXUS64 KBRO 291759
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1159 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING COLDER
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (60-90%) OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND
UPPER RGV. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOW/MID RGV.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-30%) ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- ADVERSE BEACH CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 5 AM FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST TASTE OF
WIDESPREAD 70S UNTIL NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE WATERS, WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE (10-30%) OVER LAND BEING ALONG THE COAST AND LESS
THAN 10% FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. FRIDAY MORNING LOWS WILL
BE COMPARABLE TO THIS MORNINGS IN THE 40S (50S NEAR THE COAST).
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP FRIDAY'S DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE
IN THE 60S. SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
THE FORECAST, WITH THE RANCHLANDS IN THE 50S AND RGV IN THE LOW
60S. SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH MIDWEEK,
RETURNING TO THE 70S BY MONDAY.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE
FRONT. IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING HAS
A LOW-MODERATE (10-40%) CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS IN THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (60-90%) OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING, AND A MODERATE CHANCE (30-50%) OF A HARD FREEZE.
THIS SAME NIGHT, CHANCES OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS ARE LOWER (10-30%)
IN THE RGV, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING FURTHER NORTH (WILLACY
COUNTY). WIND CHILLS BOTH MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID-UPPER 20S (RANCHLANDS) TO THE 30S (COASTAL, RGV). FREEZING OR
BELOW TEMPERATURES, ACTUAL AND APPARENT, ARE UNLIKELY AFTER
SUNDAY MORNING.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
PRIMARILY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT BRO AND HRL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY AND GUSTY TO 20-25 KTS FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE
(30-50%) OF RAIN OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
PASSING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
GO INTO EFFECT AT 5 AM FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE,
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING. A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING AND RETURNING TO ONSHORE/SOUTHERLY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT RETURN TO SLIGHT BY
MONDAY. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY RETURN UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 53 64 44 60 / 20 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 46 63 37 59 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 50 66 41 62 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 48 66 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 55 63 52 59 / 30 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 50 63 45 59 / 20 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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