017
FXUS64 KBRO 150551 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1251 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODS ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO
MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A MARGINAL RISK LINGERING ALONG THE COAST ON
THURSDAY.
- A MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVELS 2-3 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS FORECAST THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES A LOW CHANCE (30%) OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE COMBINATION OF AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE, A LOW OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO/DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE INTERACTION OF A WEAK
FRONT BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS EVENING'S 0Z BROWNSVILLE
SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 2.38 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH
(50-70%) CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE LOW TO MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
SOME ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO CAMERON COUNTY AROUND 3 AM.
THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH (50-80%) CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3
INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER. PWATS SURGE BETWEEN 2.5 TO 2.75 INCHES
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
TO HIGH (75-90%) MONDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST.
HIGH (80-90%) RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) TUESDAY NIGHT DECREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3
INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER. RAIN CHANCES LINGER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE
IS A LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) CHANCE OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ARE 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
OR HIGHER WHERE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST.
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COULD RE-
EMERGE OVER THE GULF LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS A 30% CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
DAY 7. ANY DEVELOPMENT AT THAT POINT WOULD LIKELY HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER, SOME INCREASED SWELL ALONG THE
COAST IS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH HUMIDITY CONTINUES. THERE IS A MODERATE TO MAJOR
(LEVELS 2-3 OF 4) HEAT RISK THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
GENERALLY VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL, A PAIR OF TEMPOS HAS BEEN INCLUDED
IN EACH OF THE TAFS FOR THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. MODERATE TO BREEZY
WINDS WITH STRONGER GUSTS WILL ALSO PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST AND THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK. ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD RETURN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 79 85 77 / 50 70 80 60
HARLINGEN 89 76 84 74 / 60 80 90 60
MCALLEN 90 77 84 77 / 80 90 90 50
RIO GRANDE CITY 90 75 84 74 / 80 90 90 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 81 85 80 / 40 60 70 60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 78 85 77 / 50 70 80 60
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
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