454
FXUS64 KBRO 041727
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1227 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
* LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
* HEAT RISK WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN STARTING SUNDAY WHEN SKIES
CLEAR AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY UP.
* THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA,
SUPPORTING CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS, ALONG WITH A RICH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILE, WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH
SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS
AS THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN RANCHLANDS WHERE LINGERING
SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION COULD REACH THE RIO GRANDE AFTER DARK.
TOMORROW, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW TO MODERATE (30-50%) AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
PREVIOUSLY, ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IT WAS ALWAYS
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LOW QPF AMOUNTS, AND CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HAS BEEN
REMOVED FROM WPC'S MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 40-60% TOMORROW NIGHT FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-69C, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE WESTERN RANCHLANDS
AS MORE SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY, CHANCES WILL BE LOW AGAIN (AROUND 20%)
AND REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SEA BREEZE FRONT, MOSTLY AROUND THE I-69E
CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS AS AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP FOR ABOUT A WEEK. THOUGH
THE AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE HUMID DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW, CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN VERY LOW FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT RISK WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS SKIES CLEAR
AND CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WARM. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING SEASONAL
LEVEL TEMPERATURES, BUT THERE WILL BE A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4 )
HEAT RISK DUE TO HUMID CONDITIONS.
A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
AREA BEACHES TOMORROW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH FEW CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AND WINDS
SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT INCREASING
WIND SPEEDS MAY CAUSE SCEC CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN TO FAVORABLE FOR MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OFFSHORE BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 90 79 89 / 10 20 30 30
HARLINGEN 75 90 75 89 / 0 40 30 40
MCALLEN 77 91 77 90 / 10 50 50 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 90 74 92 / 20 40 60 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 86 81 86 / 10 10 30 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 88 78 88 / 10 20 20 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page