676
FXUS64 KBRO 150436
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1136 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* A HEAT SPIKE WITH RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING, TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY; A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
* A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A 40-50F DEGREE
TEMPERATURE DROP FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGHS TO MONDAY MORNING'S
LOWS.
* STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45-60 MPH
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
* A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, EXCLUDING THE ISLAND ON MONDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.
* STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE AND
COASTAL CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A MULTI-FACETED, MULTI-HAZARD WEATHER EVENT THAT INCLUDES A
HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ALONG WITH MULTIPLE
COASTAL/MARINE HAZARDS AND HIGH WINDS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS OF SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. FOLLOWING
A HEAT SPIKE THAT WILL INCLUDE RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING
TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK, ULTIMATELY
RESULTING IN MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 5) HEAT RISK ON SUNDAY, A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE DRASTIC AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT INCLUDES A 40-50F DEGREE PLUNGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY'S HIGHS TO MONDAY MORNING'S LOWS.
THE LATEST GOES-19 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH SOME LOW LEVEL STREAMER
CLOUDS MOVING INLAND NEAR THE COAST. DESPITE THE DECREASED MIXING
HEIGHTS, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WARM AIR ADVECTION
(WAA) FROM THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MILD, SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F
DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, A
DRYLINE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, TRIGGERING A
WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST. STRONG COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM
WESTERLY WINDS NEAR THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL EXACERBATE THE HEATING
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HEAT SPIKE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. THESE VALUES,
WHICH WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THE ORDER OF 15-20F+ DEGREES
WILL BE AT RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING LEVELS (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS). ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE
DRYLINE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
20S AND TEENS. WINDS LOOK TO HOLD JUST BELOW CRITERIA. THAT SAID,
TRENDS NEED TO BE MONITORED ON SUNDAY FOR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
(RFD) ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT AND DRASTIC WEATHER CHANGES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. NUMEROUS GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG AND BROAD 591-594
MB MID-UPPER SONORAN RIDGE/HEAT DOME DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SUNDAY EVENING. THIS ENORMOUS AND STRONG
WEATHER FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEANWHILE, ON THE EAST OR LEEWARD SIDE OF THIS FEATURE, NORTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP TO DRIVE A POWERFUL SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MATURING AND DYNAMIC MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE THAT WILL BRING A
COMBINATION OF WINTER WEATHER INCLUDING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ROCKIES, AND UPPER MIDWEST TO SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES TO PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT IS A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL ENVELOPE MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY, PARTICULARLY THE INTERIOR U.S.
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SWEEP THROUGH ALL OF TEXAS INCLUDING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA, TEMPERATURES A EXPECTED TO
SHARPLY FALL. AFTER A DAY ON RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING, TRIPLE
DIGIT HEATING, A 40-50F DEGREE DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE
MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
IN ADDITION TO THE SHARP DROP OFF IN TEMPS, A TIGHT PRESSURE AND
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
25- 35 MPH GUSTING AS HIGH AS 50 MPH IS EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE
INSTANCES WHERE WINDS GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50-60 MPH ON MONDAY. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BROOKS, HIDALGO, KENEDY, WILLACY,
AND CAMERON COUNTIES FROM 10 PM CDT SUNDAY TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY. WE
WILL KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON FORECAST TRENDS TO SEE IF WE NEED TO
UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. REGARDLESS, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
WIND GUSTS COULD AT TIMES IN SPOTS EXCEED 55 MPH ON MONDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISKS ON
MONDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, EXCLUDING THE ISLAND ON MONDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS). IN ADDITION TO THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
MONDAY, STRONG WINDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS (SEE MARINE SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS).
WITH A 1020-1030 MB MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A FULL COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) REGIME IN PLACE,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE COOLER OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
WITH VALUES HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE HELP OF ADEQUATE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AMID CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO
BE IN THE 40S MOST PLACES TO 50S ALONG/NEAR THE COAST.
BEYOND MONDAY, A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
LEVELS BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DRY/RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z
TAF CYCLE, THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW MVFR CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
THE GULF WATERS FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT OR ABOVE 20 KTS. A GALE WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GUSTS TOPPING 40 KTS. MONDAY NIGHT,
MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND,
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOW TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) MAY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY FOR AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE AREA. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRIGGER
STRONG COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND A HEAT SPIKE ON SUNDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES, AN ONGOING DROUGHT, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES, AND AT TIMES BREEZY WINDS COULD RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY. THE WILDCARD WILL BE HOW
STRONG THE WINDS GET.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS,
EXCLUDING THE ISLAND FOR MONDAY DUE TO A CRITICAL RISK FOR FIRE
DANGER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL WILDFIRE RISK ON
MONDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING (RFW) IS LIKELY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
STRONG COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ON WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND A DRYLINE WILL
RESULT IN A HEAT SPIKE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID
90S TO LOWER 100S MOST PLACES. THIS WILL RESULT IN RECORD TO NEAR
RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 15TH.
RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 15:
BROWNSVILLE (BRO): 98F DEGREES IN 2008
HARLINGEN (HRL): 100F DEGREES IN 2008
MCALLEN (MFE): 103F DEGREES IN 2008
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 85 69 91 59 / 0 0 0 20
HARLINGEN 90 66 98 52 / 0 0 0 20
MCALLEN 93 69 102 55 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 95 66 101 54 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 71 81 60 / 0 0 0 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 67 91 57 / 0 0 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ248>255-351-353>355.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ250-
251-253>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ130-
132-135-150-155-170-175.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ130-
132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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