288
FXUS64 KBRO 271804
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
104 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY.
* MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH MAX HEAT INDICES
RANGING BETWEEN 105-110F DEGREES TODAY AND TUESDAY.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT; CURRENTLY, THERE IS A LOW-
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE.
* A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES SATURDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
A 588-591 DAM SUBTROPICAL HEAT DOME WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HOT AND
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEK. THE HOTTEST PART OF THIS
WEEK WILL BE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHERE THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK
WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 100-110F
DEGREES. CLOUDS AND HAZE/MIST AMID A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND
AGRICULTURAL BURN FROM MEXICO COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THEIR PEAK POTENTIAL EACH DAY. VERY WARM
(NOT AS HIGH AS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE/HEAT
DOME FLATTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SFC CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. CURRENTLY, WE HAVE 20-
40% POPS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THAT'S WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S EACH DAY (COOLER THAN
NORMAL LEVELS). OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 70S THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA,
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY....LATEST GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A BKN-OVC DECK OF MVFR-IFR STRATUS-
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD WITH CEILINGS RANGING BETWEEN 2,000-
3,000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO HAZE/MIST FROM AGRICULTURAL
BURNS IN MEXICO RANGING BETWEEN 2-5 STATUTE MILES. OUR 12Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SFC
BETWEEN 930-950 MB, WHICH SUPPORTS THE STUBBORNNESS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE IN THIS
PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS PLUS MODEL TRENDS, THE EXPECTATION
IS THAT MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
BEFORE IMPROVING AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THE PRESENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
ONCE THE INVERSION BREAKS, EXPECT FOR FLYING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO
VFR-MVFR LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS OPPOSED TO MVFR-IFR FROM
THIS MORNING. LATER TONIGHT, EXPECT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDS WILL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-30 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
MODERATE SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, HAZARDOUS (SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE COLD FROPA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 76 92 75 92 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 74 95 73 95 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 78 99 77 98 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 102 74 101 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 83 76 83 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 90 73 90 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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