555
FXUS64 KBRO 061741
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1241 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1237 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
* THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL, HEAVY AT TIMES, RETURNS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 2
OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
* THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BRUSH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A BAJA MID-LEVEL LOW BARRELS EAST INTO TEXAS BY THE WEEKEND
BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY HEADING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS,
AND WAS EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT STALL NEAR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY, MEANDER AROUND THE AREA ON FRIDAY, AND GRADUALLY EDGE
OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. NBM HAS NOT HANDLED THE FRONT WELL SO FAR,
AND MAY BE SLOW AND TOO WARM AT THIS TIME. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH
NORTHERN OFFICES TO MIX CONSHORT AND BCCONSHORT INTO GUIDANCE,
SPEEDING UP AND COOLING DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE.
PWAT VALUES BUILD ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
ACROSS THE BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE WORKING
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, POTENTIALLY
REACHING 2.2 INCHES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY TO MID MARCH IS AROUND 1.75 INCHES, MEANING THIS IS AN
ABNORMALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. WPC HAS PLACED
A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
ZAPATA, STARR, SOUTHEASTERN JIM HOGG, AND WESTERN HIDALGO COUNTIES
FOR THURSDAY, AND THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS
GENERALLY CENTERED TOWARDS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
FRIDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH A SMALL SUBSET OF CAMS
FIRING CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT JUST ACROSS THE BORDER FROM ZAPATA
AND GRADUALLY WORKING IT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING,
A PERIOD QUICKER THAN NBM. WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW, ANY ACTIVITY
MAY ALSO BE SLOW-MOVING, PLAYING INTO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
EARLY RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 1-2 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST.
THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT WEST OF ZAPATA AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID
RGV. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND FLOODING RAINFALL WOULD BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANOTHER FRONT ON MONDAY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT RISK REMAINS MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE HELD ON A BIT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF
VFR BREAK IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS RETURN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE RGV LATE TONIGHT, GENERALLY ACROSS THE
BORDER, WITH TALL CB AND POTENTIAL HAIL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WINDS NORTHEASTERLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THURSDAY WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY
FLOW, MEANDERING AROUND THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH FRIDAY,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES ON
MONDAY WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY FLOW, BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
RETURN TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY BEHIND EACH FRONT
OR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 86 78 90 / 0 20 40 30
HARLINGEN 77 83 75 91 / 0 30 50 40
MCALLEN 78 84 75 92 / 10 40 60 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 85 73 90 / 10 40 60 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 80 78 84 / 0 20 40 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 82 77 89 / 0 20 50 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-253>255.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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