500
FXUS64 KBRO 090554 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1254 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
* HOT SUMMER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE (LEVEL
2 OF 4) RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE
VALLEY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL
CLIMB TO BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES EACH DAY.
* DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM 10-25%
TODAY TO 25-50% FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE CAPABLE OF HEAVY TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
* THERE IS GENERALLY A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
LIKELY INCREASING TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
A SEASONABLY HOT FORECAST ON TAP FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. AN INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, GRADUALLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF SLOWLY HEADING
NORTHWARD MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
MORNING. DEPENDING ON COVERAGE (IE, LESSER COVERAGE AND MORE SURFACE
HEATING DURING THE MORNING), ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO LOW-MODERATE (20-50%) FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS PWATS CLIMB TO 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES. MOST ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OR ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
ESPECIALLY UNDER SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING CONVECTION. GIVEN
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE,
ANY FLOODING CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED, THOUGH ISOLATED
NUISANCE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RAIN CHANCES TAPER BACK TO ISOLATED COVERAGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS, SHIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE
AWAY FROM THE REGION. CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S (UPPER 80S ALONG
THE COAST). COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT GULF HUMIDITY, PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 104 TO 110 DEGREES WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESS. ALONG THE COAST, LONG-PERIOD SWELL AND ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES MAY INCREASE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND FURTHER NARROW BEACHES
NEAR HIGH TIDE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND LIGHTER WINDS AT NIGHT.
A TEMPO HAS BEEN ADDED FOR CONVECTION, WITH TIMING BASED ON THE
HRRR MODEL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO ONSHORE FLOW WITH SLIGHT SEAS PERSISTS TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND
ELEVATED SEAS. THIS WEEKEND, SLIGHT SEAS BUILD TO MODERATE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH INCREASING SWELLS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 92 79 93 81 / 30 30 30 10
HARLINGEN 93 75 94 78 / 20 20 40 10
MCALLEN 96 78 97 80 / 20 10 30 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 96 76 97 78 / 20 10 30 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 80 87 82 / 30 30 40 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 78 91 79 / 20 30 40 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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