309
FXUS64 KBRO 121122
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
522 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 522 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- BREEZY, WARM, AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 923 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
A DEEP 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY SWINGS INTO NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LOW PRESSURE DROPS DOWN
THE PACIFIC COAST AND ROLLS NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST EVERY AFTERNOON INTO
NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE CHANCE OF
RAIN REMAINS VERY LOW TO NEAR ZERO WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
AND LOWS WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS MAY APPROACH
RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE RGV SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES, BUT STALLS NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RH VALUES ACROSS ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, AND STARR COUNTY DROP BELOW 30
PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 20 FOOT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15
MPH AND GUSTS UNDER 20 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE WILDFIRE
PREVENTION WITHOUT ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 923 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK
DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. SCEC TO BORDERLINE SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
BAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 85 67 86 68 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 86 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 87 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 89 60 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 73 81 73 / 0 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 66 84 66 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ150-155-175.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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