749  
FXUS64 KBRO 212334 AAA  
AFDBRO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX  
534 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020  
   
..00Z AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED AND CLEARED NICELY LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON, YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATE VFR  
TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH  
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, WINDS WILL SHIFT  
EASTERLY, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON ON  
SATURDAY. OVERALL, WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. AS SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  
WILL INCREASE, HELPING DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN DURING THE MID-  
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY, INTO SATURDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 303 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020/  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT): STRONG SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE IS SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE AREA AND THE NORTHWEST GULF AS  
MID LEVEL RIDGING ALSO MOVES OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE  
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LIGHT  
WINDS WON'T REALLY BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN MUCH TONIGHT, JUST A  
COUPLE OF DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL IMPROVE INTO  
THE 60S AS LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP. PARTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES WILL DEVELOP FOR PART OF THE DAY, BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL  
RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN  
THE 50S. THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL BE RATHER TAME FOR THE NEXT 36  
HOURS.  
 
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): 500MB LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE  
WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN NIGHT  
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS  
MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA  
SUNDAY WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS  
COAST SUN AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE  
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE  
AREA MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS...MONDAY. THE FRONT  
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT  
WHILE A SHORTWAVE 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS  
TUESDAY. THE 12Z GFS PROGS ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND  
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUES NIGHT BEFORE A STRONG SURGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUES NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE  
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY  
ALONG THE COAST...TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AND  
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WEST TEXAS WED AFTERNOON. THE  
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY AND MOVE  
EASTWARD FRIDAY ALLOWING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN THURS NIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY. WILL ADJUST NBM POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS  
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THAT  
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS  
MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE  
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO  
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS AND INTO THE LOWER  
TO MID 40S ACROSS THE RGV.  
 
MARINE (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ON THE GULF. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE NEAR  
20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS, AND SEAS ARE ELEVATED ABOVE SEVEN  
FEET. I EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT TO MIDNIGHT AS SEAS  
SLOWLY DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREADING OVER THE AREA, SO  
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM  
FORECAST. LOOK FOR MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE  
SEAS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL  
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES SUN AFTERNOON AND HIGH  
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUN NIGHT AND  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS A  
RESULT. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL  
DIMINISH MON MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL  
BEND. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON  
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. WINDS  
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY MON NIGHT IN THE WAKE  
OF THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE  
COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD AND STALLS ACROSS  
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST. A STRONGER SURGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUES NIGHT AND  
VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS  
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE LIKELY OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED WED NIGHT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS  
AND A GALE WATCH/WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE  
WATERS WED NIGHT.  
 

 
   
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ150-155-  
170-175.  
 

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV  
 
AVIATION UPDATE...MEJIA/67  
 
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