242
FXUS64 KBRO 311751
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
* MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK.
* MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. A WEEK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A INFLUX OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME FUEL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AS WELL DURING THE WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOONS DURING THE WORK WEEK AROUND MEDIUM CHANCE (40-50%)
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS ARE NEAR 2 INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD. A TRADEOFF WITH THE SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE
GENERAL CLOUD COVERAGE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER DURING THE WORK WEEK.
BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND, MID-LEVEL RIDGE COULD MOVE OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
CHANCES OF RAIN TO DROP TO LOW (LESS THAN 30%) FOR SATURDAY AND THEN
VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%) FOR SUNDAY. IT WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS WELL.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE ELEVATED EASTERLY
FETCH AND SWELL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS COULD ALSO OCCUR AS WELL DURING THIS
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS. BY MID-MORNING, VFR CEILING SHOULD RETURN AS
DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE PERIOD AS WELL, THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 92 79 90 / 10 10 10 30
HARLINGEN 76 91 75 90 / 10 20 10 40
MCALLEN 79 95 78 93 / 0 20 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 96 77 94 / 0 0 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 85 81 85 / 10 10 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 89 78 88 / 10 10 10 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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