352
FXUS64 KBRO 271141
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
641 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 640 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVELS 1 AND 2 OF 4) OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS
OUTLINED FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
MORNING AND/OR RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS ARE
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.
- MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISKS (LEVEL 1 AND 2 OF 4) PERSIST,
PEAKING THIS WEEKEND AS DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARER SKIES
TEMPORARILY RETURN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
AND ONCE AGAIN, WE ARE NOW STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF ANOTHER
POTENTIAL DARK AND STORMY NIGHT HERE IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A DEEP AND
NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TX, DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW
ALOFT DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN US. THE COMBINATION OF
PACIFIC (VIA SOUTHWESTERLY 700 MB FLOW) AND GULF (VIA LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW) MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA OF INCREASED
FORCING FOR ASCENSION ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY
AND THIS EVENING, WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY PRODUCING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM JUST EAST OF SAN ANTONIO ON DOWN TO WEBB AND DUVAL COUNTIES,
JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, GENERALLY MOVING DUE EAST.
MEANWHILE, OVERCAST SKIES LOOM OVER OUR REGION ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE LATEST SPC MESOANAYLSIS INDICATES 7.0-7.5 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-45+ KT BULK SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION AS WELL AS SBCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 3,000-4,000 J/KG
(HIGHEST ALONG/WEST OF US-281) IN ADDITION TO 500 MB ANALYSIS
SHOWING THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS, ALL OF WHICH IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED OVER THE COMING HOURS.
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE MORE OR LESS THE BEST IN ACCURATELY
INITIALIZING THE LATEST REGIONAL CONDITIONS/RADAR AND THIS EVENING'S
00Z RUN INDICATES THE AREA OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE/NORTHWEST OF ZAPATA COUNTY TO INTENSIFY AND LENGTHEN
SOUTHWARD, BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY ALONG ANOTHER SQUALL LINE, EASTWARD INTO
ZAPATA, STARR, JIM HOGG, BROOKS AND KENEDY COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT,
WHERE THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EFFECTIVE UNTIL 6 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS THIS AREA CONTINUE
TO BE DAMAGING WINDS OF 58-75 MPH AND LARGE TO VERY LARGE (1-2
INCH) HAIL. ALTHOUGH HIDALGO, CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES ARE NOT
PART OF THIS WATCH DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY, CONDITIONS ARE STILL
SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, STILL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL
TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, AS PWATS COULD SURGE TO AS
HIGH 2.0-2.30 IN. OVERNIGHT, THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH THE CAPABILITY OF EASILY
PRODUCING 1-3+ INCHES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SLOWLY OR TRAIN.
THEREFORE, WPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING
FROM EXCESSIVE AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
ZAPATA, JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTIES AS WELL AS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TO AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHEASTERN STARR,
NORTHWESTERN HIDALGO AND NORTHWESTERN KENEDY COUNTIES.
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND BE MOSTLY OVER THE GULF,
POSSIBLY BY MID-MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCY IN
TIMING AND CONVECTIVE MODE(S), IT IS LESS CERTAIN FOR THE PROSPECTS
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EITHER CONTINUING IN THE MORNING AND/OR
REDEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. YET, THESE ASPECTS SHOULD GAIN MORE
CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE CONVECTION UNFOLDS. STILL,
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT LEADS TO A MARGINAL RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF US-281, AS FAR WEST AS THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF JIM HOGG COUNTY AND NORTHERN/EASTERN HALF OF
HIDALGO COUNTY.
RIDGING RESUMES BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
DRY STRETCH ENSUING INTO THE WEEKEND, WHEN TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGIN TO BRING SOME MORE DAILY CHANCES OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER, POSSIBLY BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES
REMAIN LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) AT THIS TIME, THOUGH COULD BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 90S, POSSIBLY UPPER 80S FURTHER
NORTH, CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS ALONG WITH MAXIMUM
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES FROM 100-105 F.
MAINLY MINOR HEAT RISKS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
EACH DAY THOUGH MORE URBAN AREAS OF THE RGV COULD EXPERIENCE
MODERATE. AS MOISTURE AND HEAT BUILD AGAIN FROM SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND INCREASED SUNSHINE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, A
MODERATE RISK COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE RGV FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEFORE
REDUCING TO MOSTLY MINOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES.
HEAT INDICES UP TO 110 F ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MODERATE HEAT
RISKS.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
MVFR CEILINGS AND SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO TRANSLATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND MID
TEXAS COAST. HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE TAF SITES BY MID MORNING, AND
EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITY, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. BRIEF WIND
SHIFTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES, RESULTING FROM MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE EASING TO MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4 FT) SEAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. CHANCES OF RAIN GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT TO AS MUCH A MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 15% OR LESS FROM THURSDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN EITHER LATE
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 77 92 77 / 40 20 20 0
HARLINGEN 90 74 91 74 / 50 20 10 0
MCALLEN 92 77 93 76 / 40 10 20 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 92 74 93 75 / 40 20 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 80 85 80 / 40 20 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 77 89 77 / 40 20 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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