719
FXUS64 KBRO 260557 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1257 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1256 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- VERY HOT, RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH INCREASING AREAS OF EXTREME
(LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS, AND
VERY HIGH EVAPORATION RATES.
- THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS, LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES,
AND HOT TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISKS
THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF IH-
69C/US-281; SOMETHING WORTH MONITORING IN THE DAYS AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A STRONG AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 594-598 DAM SUB-TROPICAL HEAT
DOME, THAT'S RESULTING IN A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD HOTTER
THAN NORMAL, RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
FOR THAT MATTER THROUGH THE MONTH OF AUGUST INTO SEPTEMBER (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION).
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEATING INCLUDING OVER HARLINGEN AND
BROWNSVILLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HEAT DOME REMAINS PARKED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE IN THE HOTTEST PART OF
THE YEAR (I.E. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MCALLEN IS 100F DEGREES)
AND YET FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE 4-8F DEGREES
HOTTER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS EVEN FOR THE RGV'S STANDARDS IN THE DAYS
AHEAD. THAT SAID, WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH INCREASING
AREAS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY STRONG EVAPORATION RATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A CONTINUATION OF WORSENING OR EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THIS STRETCH. A
COUPLE OF MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
RIGHT NOW, THE CHANCES REMAIN LOW, NONETHELESS, THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING THAT NEEDS MONITORING IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
GENERALLY VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED WITH BREEZY DAYTIME
WINDS WITH STRONGER GUSTS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LOW SEAS (1 TO 2 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS) AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A MASSIVE AND STRONG 594-598 DAM HEAT DOME SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES DURING THE WORKWEEK.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 4-8F DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGHS FROM AUGUST 26-28:
WEDNESDAY AUGUST 26TH, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 101F IN 2019
HARLINGEN: 103F IN 1924 AND 1948
MCALLEN: 104F IN 2019 AND 2018
THURSDAY AUGUST 27TH, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 102F IN 2023
HARLINGEN: 104F IN 1948
MCALLEN: 105F IN 2018
FRIDAY AUGUST 28TH, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 106F IN 2023
HARLINGEN: 106F IN 2011
MCALLEN: 107F IN 2023
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 99 80 99 80 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 102 76 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 105 80 104 79 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 105 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 80 90 81 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 78 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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