184
FXUS64 KBRO 251725
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-25%) INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES (45-65%) MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
- PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ELEVATED
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO NARROW BEACHES DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF GRADUALLY SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTH, MAINTAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND BRINGING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH INCREASED
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
END OF OCTOBER. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, CURRENTLY 45-65 PERCENT, MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF US-281. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEA BREEZE AND STREAMING
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF INCREASES THE THREAT OF
RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEK AND COMBINES WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES TO NARROW BEACHES DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS
A LOW CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED SWELL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH AFTERNOON WINDS OCCASIONALLY
APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS. A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 70 86 72 86 / 0 20 40 50
HARLINGEN 67 86 68 86 / 0 10 30 60
MCALLEN 69 90 71 89 / 10 10 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 67 89 68 89 / 10 0 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 79 73 81 / 0 20 70 60
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 83 69 83 / 0 20 60 50
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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