127
FXUS64 KBRO 202323 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
623 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 609 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
- THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE MAJORITY OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
TODAY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
A VERY HUMID AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY, WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 2.3-2.5 INCHES.
COMBINED WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG AND FORCING FROM
A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST, THIS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE MAJORITY
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE BROWNSVILLE AND SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND REMAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 2). RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-4
INCHES POSSIBLE. GENERALLY LIGHT CLOUD LAYER WINDS ORIENTED ALONG
THE WEAK FORCING AXIS COULD SUPPORT SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DRY OUT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH NEAR-ZERO
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL HELP KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS WEEKEND. WITH SUNNY SKIES
RETURNING MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES FORECAST NEXT WEEK, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW 110 DEGREES IN SPITE OF THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES, AND
HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY WON’T BE NEEDED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ALTHOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN, HAS REDUCED
SIGNIFICANTLY IN TIME FOR THE 00Z TAFS, VCTS REMAINS IN THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT KMFE AND KHRL, WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO LINGER NEARBY AND/OR ARE STILL DEVELOPING. THIS COULD
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY WANES
FURTHER, ESPECIALLY BEYOND SUNSET, THOUGH A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS AT KBRO
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST AND MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP
OVER KMFE LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURN TO ALL
TERMINALS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP TO
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON. ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
AND SEAS INCREASING TO 5-6 FEET. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BY
TUESDAY, WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 83 93 83 95 / 20 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 79 94 80 96 / 30 10 0 0
MCALLEN 81 95 81 98 / 50 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 96 79 99 / 40 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 89 84 90 / 20 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 92 82 94 / 20 10 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM....60
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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