523
FXUS64 KBRO 311714
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES, NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING, ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
- ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DURING LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING A DISTURBANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
GULF, WITH A HIGH (70 PERCENT) CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN 48
HOURS. NO DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS,
WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE 500MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST US, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MID-SUMMER LIKE HEAT AND A
PERSISTENT INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO TEXAS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WEAKER PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST AROUND THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE MAY COMBINE WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE TO INITIATE
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, MAINLY THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT POPS SIT LOW AROUND 15 PERCENT OR LESS INTO SATURDAY, WITH
A LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 30 PERCENT) CHANCE SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY.
MODEL QPF IS STILL BLEAK AND ISOLATED, WITH NO DROUGHT RELIEF
EXPECTED, BUT HAS BUMPED UP TOWARDS A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR THE
WEEK.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE, WITH A HIGH (70 PERCENT) CHANCE TO BECOME A
SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER LATE TOMORROW. ANY DEVELOPMENT
COULD POTENTIALLY CREATE MORE SUBSIDENCE LOCALLY, LEANING INTO
WARMER AND MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO WEDNESDAY, AS
WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT IMPACT DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.
THE ADDED HUMIDITY ON TOP OF ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO
EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS EACH
DAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO RELIEF EACH NIGHT. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A DAILY MODERATE CHOP IS EXPECTED ON
THE BAY NEXT WEEK WITH GULF SEAS OF GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FEET. THERE
IS A LOW (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES
ON POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE, WITH A HIGH (70 PERCENT)
CHANCE TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER LATE TOMORROW.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
A BROAD AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 591-594 DAM SUB-TROPICAL HEAT RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THIS WEEK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A POSITIVE FEEDBACK
LOOP BETWEEN THE HEAT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO AID IN
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES AT TIMES THIS WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE RECORD HIGHS FROM AUGUST 31ST TO SEPTEMBER 4
FROM OUR THREE OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITES.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM AUGUST 31ST TO SEPTEMBER 4TH:
MONDAY, AUGUST 31, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 103F (2023)
HARLINGEN: 104F (1958)
MCALLEN: 104F (2023, 2017)
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 100F (2023, 2020)
HARLINGEN: 103F (1928, 1952)
MCALLEN: 106F (2018)
WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 99F (2018)
HARLINGEN: 104F (1928, 1937)
MCALLEN: 106F (2018)
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 102F (2011)
HARLINGEN: 106F (2011)
MCALLEN: 106F (2011)
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 103F (2011, 2000)
HARLINGEN: 107F (2011)
MCALLEN: 108F (2011)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 98 80 99 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 76 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 80 104 81 104 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 105 79 105 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 90 81 90 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 96 79 97 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
CLIMATE...23-EVBUOMA
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