133
FXUS64 KBRO 061911 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
211 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 148 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- MEDIUM TO LIKELY (40-80%+) CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE ALONG/EAST
OF US-281 THROUGH TOMORROW (HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST) BECOMING A
REGION-WIDE LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE ON THURSDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY REDUCING OVER THE WEEKEND.
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) INDICATES A HIGH (NEAR
100%) CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF, THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
- WHILE DIRECT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS,
THERE IS AN ONGOING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS,
ELEVATED SURF AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY TOWARDS
THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- MOSTLY MINOR RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) BECOME
MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) BY NEXT MONDAY AS DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGHING ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND A
LITTLE BIT OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG/NEAR THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN MEDIUM TO LIKELY (40-80%+) CHANCES OF INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES TONIGHT, EXPANDING INLAND TO ALONG/EAST US-281 TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO DEEP MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES
> 2.0 IN.) REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION, THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN PERSIST CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE TOMORROW
NIGHT, BUT A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER WESTERN TEXAS SHIFTS
LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES OF RAIN FROM ALONG/EAST I-69 E
TOMORROW NIGHT TO MOST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUES LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40%) CHANCES OF RAIN
ALONG/EAST OF US-281 ON FRIDAY, BUT SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ALOFT, WEST OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, DISCUSSED FURTHER BELOW. THIS SHOULD HELP CUT
DOWN ON CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE LOW (15-30%) CHANCES
OF RAIN RETURN IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A BIT OF VORTICITY
ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN AND ENHANCE MOISTURE
CONTENT BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
IN THE MEANTIME, NHC CONTINUES MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF, INDICATING
A HIGH (NEAR 100%) CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. WHILE DIRECT IMPACTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, A
CONTINUED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS, ELEVATED SURF AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING, RESULTING FROM INCREASED WINDS AND A NORTHEASTERLY FETCH
OVER THE GULF, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST. IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM, A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
PERSISTS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. YET, THIS RISK IS LIKELY TO
BECOME HIGH INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THIS WEEK AS LONG
PERIOD SWELLS AND ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS ARRIVE TO THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 80S FURTHER
EAST (AND LOW 90S FURTHER WEST) TODAY TO MOSTLY THE LOW/MID 90S BY
TOMORROW, PERHAPS WARMING A BIT FURTHER IN THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK. MOSTLY MINOR RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES PERSIST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, BECOMING A MODERATE RISK BY NEXT MONDAY AS MOISTURE
RETURNS, DETERIORATING HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 100-110 F. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 70S PREVAIL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE 18 Z TAF CYCLE, THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, ARE
POSSIBLE AT KBRO AND KHRL, WHICH COULD REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY TO MVFR AT TIMES. MEANWHILE, KMFE SHOULD REMAIN DRY,
THOUGH A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN
MODERATE (3-5 FOOT) SEAS AND PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND ENHANCES NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
HEADLINES BECOMING LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LOWER
TEXAS GULF COASTAL WATERS (20-60 NM). THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF, WHICH NHC HAS FORECAST A HIGH (NEAR 100%)
CHANCE OF UNDERGOING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
WHILE WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN BEYOND STRONG, THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEAS TO RISE TO ABOVE 7 FEET FROM FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MEDIUM TO LIKELY (50-80%+) CHANCES OF RAIN REDUCE TO LOW TO MEDIUM
(30-50%) ON FRIDAY, MINIMIZING THIS WEEKEND AND THEN INCREASE TO LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-40%) BY NEXT MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 90 77 91 / 50 80 50 60
HARLINGEN 72 92 72 93 / 30 70 40 50
MCALLEN 76 95 75 95 / 10 50 20 60
RIO GRANDE CITY 73 94 72 94 / 10 20 10 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 86 81 86 / 80 90 60 70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 88 76 89 / 70 80 60 60
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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