679
FXUS64 KBRO 152309 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
609 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 604 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- HOT, MOSTLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
- THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ON MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF
IH- 69C/US-281; BEST TIMING BETWEEN 11AM-5PM CDT.
- THOUGH NO HEADLINES ARE OUT AT THIS TIME, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL REMAIN ON THE TABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS; SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE
DURING THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
- THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
HOT, MAINLY RAIN-FREE, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS A STRONG 594 DAM SUB-TROPICAL
HEAT DOME REMAINS ANCHORED OVERHEAD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO
THE MID 100S. COMBINE THAT WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 105-115F DEGREES EACH DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MODERATE (LEVEL 2
OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME
(LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPSS) WILL BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS ACROSS
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE REGION WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST MOST
FAVORED DUE TO HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
A FEW HI-RES AND AI/ML MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SEA
BREEZE ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY, WE HAVE LOW (20-30%) CHANCES FOR SUCH
AN EVENT WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE BEING ALIGNED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE IH-69C/US-281 CORRIDOR. THE BEST TIMING FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 11AM-5PM CDT.
THE PERSISTENTLY HOT AND DRY ANTECEDENT PATTERN WITH HIGH
EVAPORATION RATES AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AID IN
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY IN
THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD AS MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES GET TO NEAR FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) CRITERIA.
EVEN THOUGH, WE DO NOT HAVE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME, WE URGE THAT YOU CONTINUE TO EXERCISE FIRE WEATHER SAFETY
MEASURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
BREEZY TO GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING (AROUND 13-20 KT, GUSTING TO 25-27 KT) ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE PICKING UP TO
AROUND 10-15 KT, GUSTING TO 20-25 KT, BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WELL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, WINDS MAY INCREASE
OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH
COULD REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 96 80 96 / 10 10 10 30
HARLINGEN 77 98 76 99 / 0 10 10 20
MCALLEN 81 102 80 101 / 0 10 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 102 78 101 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 81 89 / 10 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 94 78 95 / 0 10 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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