804
FXUS64 KBRO 160543 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1243 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, SOME MAY BE SIGNIFICANT. HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR
POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2
OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US 281/I-69C, WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- HEAT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVELS 2-3 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS FORECAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY
BECOMING MORE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES A MEDIUM CHANCE (50%) OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND INTERACT WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SLOW-MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2
TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
EVENING'S 0Z BROWNSVILLE SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 2.24
INCHES.
LATEST BROWNSVILLE RADAR INDICATES A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. MOREOVER,
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
SOME OF THE LATEST CAMS, PARTICULARLY THE RAP/HRRR, SUGGESTS THAT
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OR EAST OFF OR
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH (80-90%) OVERNIGHT GIVEN
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH (80-90%) RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE MOST OF TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES (30-60%)
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TO MEDIUM
(10 TO 40%) RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY EVENING, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST,
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EASTWARD. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
OTHERWISE, RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO MAY
RE-EMERGE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS A 50% CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH DAY 7. ANY DEVELOPMENT AT THAT POINT WOULD LIKELY HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT ON DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER, SOME INCREASED SWELL
ALONG THE COAST IS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH HUMIDITY CONTINUES. THERE IS A MODERATE TO MAJOR
(LEVELS 2-3 OF 4) HEAT RISK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A MODERATE HEAT
RISK THIS WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
MVFR TO VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TEMPO HAS
BEEN INCLUDED IN EACH OF THE TAFS AND IS BASED ON THE HRRR MODEL,
AND EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO WET. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO OCCUR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
SLIGHTLY ADVERSE TO ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ON
THE LAGUNA MADRE ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK. ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD RETURN WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TEXAS COAST. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES OR SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 84 77 94 83 / 90 40 20 0
HARLINGEN 83 74 93 79 / 90 30 20 0
MCALLEN 84 77 94 81 / 90 20 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 85 74 95 78 / 90 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 79 90 84 / 90 40 30 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 76 93 81 / 100 40 30 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ248>255-351-353>355-
451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
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