223
FXUS64 KBRO 151122 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
622 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH OVERALL HEAT
RISK REMAINING IN THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT
RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A VERY LOW RAIN CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR NORTHERN ZAPATA THROUGH NORTHERN BROOKS COUNTY.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, LOW (10-30%)RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK 500MB LOW WILL TRACK OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL MEXICO AND BRINGS A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHILE, THE ECMWF BUILDS THE MID-LEVEL
OVER THE REGION LEADING TO INCREASING HEAT DURING THIS TIME. FOR
NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE NBM FOR POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER BY THE WEEKEND WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY NEAR FALCON LAKE, REACHING THE TRIPLE
DIGITS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY A MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) EACH DAY.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BREEZY WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AT NIGHT. CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED AND HAS BEEN KEPT OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE IN THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AND POTENTIAL ON THE GULF
WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW RAIN CHANCE (10-30%)
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE GULF WATERS. HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 92 81 93 81 / 10 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 94 78 95 78 / 10 10 10 0
MCALLEN 97 81 98 80 / 10 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 97 80 99 79 / 10 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 81 88 81 / 10 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 80 92 79 / 0 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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