373
FXUS64 KBRO 161108 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
608 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
* ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STREAM ONSHORE FROM THE GULF INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
* HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK INCREASING TO MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND.
* THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATNING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GULF, CUTTING RAIN
CHANCES BY THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AND TURNING UP THE HEAT.
DAILY SURGES OF MOISTURE, WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.9 INCHES, STILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE, LESS THAN 20 PERCENT, OF STREAMER SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING AND A VERY LOW CHANCE, LESS THAN 10
PERCENT, FOR A SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY
FRIDAY, THOSE CHANCES DROP EVEN FURTHER, FALLING TO NEAR ZERO OVER
THE WEEKEND.
OF MORE CONCERN, THOSE DAILY SURGES OF MOISTURE ADD TO A NEW
ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
HEAT- RELATED ISSUES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY TOP 100 FOR MANY LOCATIONS BY NEXT WEEK, NEARING
RECORD HIGHS BY MID-WEEK. A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK CAN
BE EXPECTED EVERY DAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY, WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK IN
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEGINNING FRIDAY.
ALONG THE COAST, LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK OF
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH CONDITIONS
OVERALL BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES SUBSIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
FAVORABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH VFR IN PLACE. BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NIGHTTIME. MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY, RAIN-FREE SKIES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED WITH A LONG
PERIOD SWELL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. GENERALLY
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL DRIVE A PERIODIC CHOP ON THE BAY WITH
POTENTIALLY A DAILY SMALL CRAFT CAUTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 81 95 80 / 10 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 95 78 96 78 / 10 0 0 0
MCALLEN 99 80 100 80 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 99 79 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 88 81 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 80 93 79 / 10 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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