292
FXUS64 KBRO 140350
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1050 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1046 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
- A MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVELS 1-2 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVELS 2-3 OF 4) HEAT RISK
LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING SWELL NEAR HIGH TIDE CYCLES MAY RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR OR
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO OUT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND
WESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS EVENING'S 0Z BROWNSVILLE SOUNDING INDICATED
A PWAT VALUE OF 2.27 INCHES. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE TO HIGH (40-70%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WANES SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR OR
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO OUT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN
GULF OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS IN PLACES AS A WEAK
FRONTAL MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES (60 TO 80%) FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 5-6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA (ZAPATA, STARR,
JIM HOGG AND BROOKS COUNTIES) AND A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, HIDALGO AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH HUMIDITY CONTINUES. THERE IS A MODERATE TO MAJOR
(LEVELS 2-3 OF 4) HEAT RISK THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK. INCREASING SWELL NEAR HIGH TIDE CYCLES MAY RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VCTS AND VCSH CONTINUE TO BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT KBRO
AND KHRL, RESPECTIVELY, THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, ALL TERMINALS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR SKIES WITH SCATTERED SKIES, YET
PROB30S INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY TONIGHT, CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW. GENTLE TO
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS WELL, THOUGH COULD EASE JUST A
BIT AT KHRL AND KMFE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. IN GENERAL, THERE IS A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AS
COMPARED TO TODAY, THOUGH SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN IN PASSING FORM.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SLIGHTLY ADVERSE TO ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE THE LAGUNA MADRE AND SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON THE GULF WATERS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND THE
GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY BE
CONDUCIVE FOR WATERSPOUTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE EDGES OF HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT
THIS WEEK BEFORE BECOMING ADVERSE ONCE AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK.
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 91 81 90 80 / 80 60 60 70
HARLINGEN 90 78 90 78 / 80 50 70 70
MCALLEN 90 79 91 79 / 80 30 60 50
RIO GRANDE CITY 93 77 92 78 / 70 20 50 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 83 88 83 / 60 60 60 70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 80 89 80 / 70 60 60 70
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
SHORT TERM...63-KC
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...65-IRISH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page