288
FXUS64 KBRO 142341 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
641 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- SEASONAL HEAT (BASED ON THE 1991-2020 AVERAGE) WITH OVERALL
HEAT RISK FOR THE REGION REMAINING IN THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF
4) RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR (LEVEL 3
OF 4) HEAT RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
- MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES AND VERY LOW RAINFALL RATES/TOTALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN ZAPATA THROUGH NORTHERN BROOKS
COUNTY...UNCERTAINTY FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER RGV
EARLY NEXT WEEK
- GENERALLY MODERATE INTENSITY SOUTH-TO-NORTH LONGSHORE CURRENTS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: THE RGV LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS
THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK 500 MB CLOSED OFF LOW, ROBUST TROPICAL
MOISTURE, AND MESOSCALE FORCING MAINTAINS A PRODIGIOUS RAINFALL
EVENT THAT EBBS AND FLOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
TO THE BIG BEND REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE
VALLEY REMAINS DRY, THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT REMNANTS OF THE
CONVECTION COULD SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, MAINLY FROM
ZAPATA TO NORTHERN BROOKS COUNTY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF VERY LOW QPF (0.01") DO SNEAK ABOVE 50%
(LREF MODEL) IN SOME POCKETS OF THESE AREAS, WHILE THE NBM 5.0
KEEPS NON-MENTIONABLE CHANCES (GENERALLY BELOW 10%) FOR NEARLY ALL
OF THE PERIOD. SOMETIMES, SOUTHEAST-MOVING CELLS/MCS TYPE SYSTEMS
CAN REACH PARTS OF OUR REGION, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
MAY NEED TO EDIT SOME HIGHER CHANCES INTO THESE AREAS BOTH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, IT'S MORE OF THE SAME WITH SEASONAL HEAT (95 TO 100
FROM EAST TO WEST BY DAY, MID 70S RURAL AREAS AND UPPER 70S URBAN
BY SUNRISE) AND THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING SOUTHEAST
BREEZE UNDER A MIX OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND RESIDUAL CIRRUS
NOSING SOUTHWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION.
AT THE BEACHES, THE STEADY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND AND WAVE
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY MODERATE SOUTH-NORTH LONGSHORE
CURRENTS WITH EMBEDDED RIPS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN, BUT NUDGES INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND TAKES THE
BETTER FORCING WITH IT, AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE LARGER RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN GULF
NUDGES WESTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
TIP. THIS ENDS ANY RAIN CHANCES BUT MAINTAINS THE PERSISTENT
SEASONAL HEAT ALONG WITH THE DAILY LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING GUSTY SOUTHEAST BREEZES FOR MOST. BEACH CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN STATUS QUO, THOUGH THE BACK-BUILDING OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD BEGIN REDUCING BOTH WAVES AND
CURRENTS LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO SHOW UP,
WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A "NEW" UPPER LOW
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND EXTENDING TOWARD THE
TAMAULIPAS COAST AS THE HEAT-DOME 500 MB RIDGE SETS UP SHOP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS NEW UPPER LOW,
IF IT DOES SET UP, HELP FORCE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS
ENSEMBLES FROM THE 06Z RUN SUGGESTED 50% CHANCES OF 0.01" ACROSS
THE LOWER RGV. THE ECMWF, MEANWHILE, IS HOLDING ONTO ITS DRIER
(AND GRADUALLY HOTTER) SOLUTION WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE CONNECTING
FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO, WITH NO HINT OF A NEW UPPER LOW IN
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.
AS OF NOW, THE NBM HAS NOT CAUGHT ON OR CAUGHT UP WITH THE GFS
TRENDS - SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HOTTER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NOTE THAT
THIS MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD CIRRUS CLOUDS
PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND 15 KNOTS MID TO
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
A TEMPO FOR ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 08-12Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: SOUTHEAST FLOW IS THE STORY,
WITH DIURNAL SPEEDS SHIFTING CAUTION CONDITIONS (15-20 KT AND
GUSTY) FROM THE LAGUNA MADRE (LATE MORNING THROUGH SUNSET OR SO)
TO MOST OF THE GULF WATERS (MID EVENING THROUGH PRE-DAWN). WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH NUDGING WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST LATER IN THE
WEEKEND, OVERNIGHT WINDS OVER THE 0-60 NM LEGS COULD SLIP TOWARD
OR JUST BELOW 15 KNOTS. OTHERWISE, DURING THE LOWER DIURNAL WIND
PERIODS, 10-15 KNOTS WILL DO IT.
AS FOR WAVES...THERE IS A WINDOW OF 4 TO 5 FOOT GULF WAVES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FLOW, BEFORE SETTING BACK TOWARD 3 FEET LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE NUDGES TOWARD THE COAST AND REDUCES THE GRADIENT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE ONGOING AND FORECAST HEAVY RAINFALL POCKETS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE BETWEEN AMISTAD AND EAGLE PASS, AS WELL AS THROUGH RUNOFF
INTO THE RIVER FROM ANY FLASH FLOODS AND TRIBUTARIES, IS NOW
FORECAST TO PRODUCE A FLOOD WAVE (AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING AT SOME
GAUGES) THAT WILL TRACK DOWN RIVER THROUGH LAREDO AND ALONG THE
ZAPATA LINE BEFORE EMPTYING INTO FALCON LAKE, WHICH SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MINOR RISES IN WATER LEVELS (KNOWN AS CONSERVATION
LEVELS) BEGINNING LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RIO
GRANDE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKE AND THE ZAPATA/WEBB
COUNTY LINE WILL RUN FAST AND FAIRLY HIGH - NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
LANDSLIDE FLOODING BUT ENOUGH TO IMPACT ANY EQUIPMENT OR OTHER
ITEMS IN THE RIVER (USA SIDE). FOR DETAILS ON THE FLOOD FORECASTS
NORTH OF FALCON LAKE, GO TO HTTPS://WATER.NOAA.GOV AND CLICK ON
THE GAUGE LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
IF IT'S JULY, IT'S HOT IN THE VALLEY (UNLESS WE GET BENEFICIAL
RAINS FROM A TROPICAL EVENT OR A SIMILAR DISTURBANCE TO WHAT IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE BIG BEND/EDWARDS PLATEAU). BUT JUST HOW HOT?
SO FAR (THROUGH THE 13TH), WE'VE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE 0.5 TO 1.8
DEGREES ABOVE THE 1991-2020 30-YEAR AVERAGE, WHICH IS THE HIGHEST
ON RECORD DATING BACK TO THE EARLY 20TH CENTURY. SO...FOR THE
PERIODS OF RECORD, MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE WITHIN THE TOP 10%
HOTTEST ON RECORD. THE NUMBERS SO FAR FOR AVAILABLE LOCATIONS,
DAY AND NIGHT COMBINED, THROUGH THE 13TH:
LOCATION(RECORDS SINCE) 2026 AVG. RANK PRIOR RECORD(YEAR)
BROWNSVILLE (1878) 87.6 3 88.2(2023)
MCALLEN (1942) 89.8 6 92.0(2009)
HARLINGEN (1912) 86.0 22 89.1(2016)
WESLACO(1914) 87.7 3 88.5(2022)
PORT MANSFIELD(1958) 85.4 6 86.8(2016)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 93 81 94 / 0 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 78 94 78 95 / 0 0 10 10
MCALLEN 81 98 81 99 / 10 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 98 79 99 / 0 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 87 81 88 / 0 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 91 80 92 / 0 10 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...52-GOLDSMITH
HYDROLOGY/CLIMATE....52-GOLDSMITH
AVIATION...63-KC
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