922
FXUS64 KBRO 050345
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1045 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1038 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- THERE IS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS THIS WEEK.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH
MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL RUN-UP.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE RAINY PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK, AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SITS OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. BY MID WEEK,
THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE, HOWEVER, AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK COULD AGAIN
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.
A LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY,
PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES, AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
FOR WESTERN CAMERON, WILLACY, AND PORTIONS OF HIDALGO AND KENEDY
COUNTIES MONDAY. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CAMERON
AND WILLACY COUNTIES, AND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THE WEEK, DAILY ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AN INCH
OR LESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK, SUPPORTING A COOLER PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 80S MONDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY CLIMBING
BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
70S THIS WEEK.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS A 40% CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AROUND MID-WEEK. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT IF ANY IMPACTS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MIGHT SEE
IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
HAZARDOUS TO ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH
MID WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, LIKELY SUPPORTING INCREASED
SEAS AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS A 40% CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AROUND MID-WEEK. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT IF ANY IMPACTS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST MIGHT
SEE IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 86 75 87 / 70 90 80 80
HARLINGEN 72 86 71 89 / 80 90 70 60
MCALLEN 74 86 73 90 / 80 70 60 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 86 72 90 / 70 70 30 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 85 79 85 / 80 90 90 90
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 87 75 88 / 80 90 90 80
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ135-155-175.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60
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