240  
FXUS64 KBRO 142243 AAA  
AFDBRO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX  
543 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM,  
WHICH, COMBINED WITH MOIST ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, HAS RESULTED  
IN AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES, RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDICES,  
OR THE 'REAL FEEL' TEMPERATURE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A HEAT ADVISORY  
TODAY FOR BROOKS AND HIDALGO COUNTIES AS WELL AS INLAND CAMERON,  
INLAND WILLACY AND INLAND KENEDY COUNTIES, EFFECTIVE TILL 5 PM THIS  
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 111 F FOR AT LEAST  
2 HOURS AND POTENTIALLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 114 F DEGREES.  
 
OVERNIGHT, REMNANT MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ILEANA, LOCATED OVER  
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO  
COASTLINE, WILL BE CARRIED BY MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER DEEP  
SOUTH TEXAS, BRINGING SCATTERED TO OVERCAST SKIES. CONVECTION OVER  
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS MAY SPILL OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF  
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS, BRINGING A 15 TO 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO  
THE UPPER RGV AS WELL AS JIM HOGG AND ZAPATA COUNTIES. BY THE  
PREDAWN HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH A  
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE OVER THE CWA  
IN A WEST-TO-EAST FASHION, PROVIDING A MID-LEVEL LIFTING MECHANISM  
FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE A 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING. BY THE  
AFTERNOON, CONTINUED VORTICITY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN BRIEF  
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND ALL  
OF THE RGV, WHERE POPS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 50% TO 70% INTO THE EARLY  
EVENING HOURS. WPC QPF TOTALS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.25 TO  
0.75 OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE MID-UPPER RGV AND RIO GRANDE  
PLAINS. HOWEVER, A FEW INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER AND  
LONGER-LASTING DOWNPOURS. WPC HAS NOT INCLUDED ANY OF THE CWA WITHIN  
AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK, BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO NUISANCE  
FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT, POP'S DECREASE ACROSS MOST  
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, BUT AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE RGV CLOSER TO THE BORDER.  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S  
ACROSS THE RGV AND THE BARRIER ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL  
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOWER TO MID 90S  
FOR INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. TOMORROW NIGHT'S LOWS WILL KEEP MOSTLY  
IN THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S ALONG THE GULF COASTLINE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024  
 
RAIN CHANCES TREND DOWNWARD BUT DO NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY THROUGH  
THE LONG-TERM. 250-500MB RIDGE BUILDS AND BECOMES ANCHORED OVER  
TEXAS AS LARGE SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS SET UP OVER THE  
WESTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. A FEW PERTURBATIONS  
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM PACIFIC  
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW  
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. BEYOND MONDAY, SURFACE SOUTHEAST  
FLOW MAINTAINS SEASONAL MOISTURE LEVELS PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF DAILY SEA BREEZE SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PROBABILITY  
COVERAGE WILL ONLY BE IN THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE AT BEST AND WITH  
THE RIDGE BUILDING AND MORE SUBSIDENCE THAN LIFT THE SEA BREEZE  
WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME ORGANIZING WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTION  
BEYOND THE COASTAL COUNTIES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.  
 
SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUPPORTED  
BY MODEL OUTPUT WITH HEAT INDICES ON THE HIGH END BUT JUST BELOW  
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUMS TO REACH UPPER 80S AT  
THE BEACH, 90S INLAND TO NEAR 100 FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH 70S  
TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST SHOULD SUFFICE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024  
 
VFR IS GENERALLY ANTICIPATED AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24  
HOURS. A PREVAILING SHRA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON, AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE  
GENERATES WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE  
ANTICIPATED WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING  
BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON, LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS  
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHTNING  
AND ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
MONDAY-FRIDAY...GENTLE TO LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZES COUPLED WITH LOW  
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELAXED WITH  
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER TEXAS AND SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING  
WEAK ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS HEAT BUILDS INLAND THROUGH THE  
WEEK A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY EACH  
AFTERNOON IMPACTING MAINLY THE LAGUNA MADRE. PROBABILITY FOR  
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT REMAINS BELOW 20 PERCENT MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OVER 50 PERCENT MID TO LATE IN  
THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES PROBABILITY REMAINS BELOW 10  
PERCENT.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
BROWNSVILLE 80 90 78 90 / 20 60 40 50  
HARLINGEN 77 91 75 91 / 10 60 20 50  
MCALLEN 80 94 79 95 / 20 70 30 50  
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 91 76 92 / 30 70 40 50  
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 87 81 87 / 20 50 40 40  
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 89 77 89 / 20 50 30 40  
 
 
   
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
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