145  
FXUS64 KBRO 201139 AAA  
AFDBRO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX  
639 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  

 
   
AVIATION
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS.  
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A  
BREEZY TO WINDY ONSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAYLIGHT  
HOURS OF TODAY.  

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 432 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2019/  
 
SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT): BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER THE BRO CWFA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FORCE OVER THE  
REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY  
EXPECTED TODAY, ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF  
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH ANOTHER ADVISORY  
LIKELY TO BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH  
WILL STILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD  
COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE, AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT  
EFFECT, IF ANY, IT WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH  
TOMORROW.  
 
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND  
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE BACK OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS  
WILL LARGELY BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE SYNOPTICS FOR DEEP SOUTH  
TEXAS, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH  
OF THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS, HELPING TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  
THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EACH MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING  
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH IN THE LOWER RGV SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOST  
LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH THE MAIN CONCERN  
BEING DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES. THE COMBINATION OF HOT AFTERNOON  
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES  
RANGING FROM 110 TO 114F IN SOME LOCATIONS, THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL  
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
MODELS BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO, WITH SLIGHTLY  
BETTER MIXING TO KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
MENTIONABLE (SLIGHT) RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY AT AROUND 20% AS BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD AND  
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.  
 
MARINE (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT): BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS  
AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY  
OVER 4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 150 CDT/650 UTC.  
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ADVERSE DURING THIS  
PERIOD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR  
THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY LIKELY ON  
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS LIKELY FOR THE  
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE WITH  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE.  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PRESSURE LOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
AND DOWN SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENSION  
OR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OR ALL OF THE  
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THE BAY MAY SEE WINDS JUST UNDER  
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES, BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY  
NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FILLS IN A BIT BY MID WEEK  
WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE  
SURFACE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN, IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS BY  
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  

 
   
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING  
FOR TXZ248>257-351-353.  
 
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV  
 
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