441  
FXUS64 KBRO 291121 AAB  
AFDBRO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX  
621 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 618 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025  
 
- THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL RESULT LOW TO  
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT, AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES  
TOMORROW THROUGH LATE WEEK.  
 
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY  
EVENING OVER THE GULF WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE. A WIND ADVISORY  
IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE THIS  
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE  
COMBINATION OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY, DRY FUELS, AND BREEZY NORTH TO  
NORTHWEST WINDS.  
 
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT  
ON WEDNESDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025  
 
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS,  
BRINGING STRONGER WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND MULTIPLE  
HAZARDS. THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG  
THE FRONT, WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE GULF  
WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW FURTHER CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER INLAND, AND RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A  
RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS  
THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO MEXICO.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT, A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO DEEP  
SOUTH TEXAS, ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE MID 50S TO  
LOW 60S TONIGHT. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW  
80S, AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.  
 
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BUILD HIGHER SURF AND INCREASE RIP  
CURRENT STRENGTH ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY  
AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AT  
AREA BEACHES. ADDITIONALLY, A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE  
BARRIER ISLANDS AND INTIMIDATE COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON. COASTAL FLOODING MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT.  
 
THE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
VALUES INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS  
WEDNESDAY, AS STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH THIS DRY AIR WILL  
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF ANY WILDFIRES OCCUR.  
LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL  
LIKELY LIMIT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN SPITE OF THE LOW RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY VALUES.  
 
WINDS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY,  
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING  
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY  
SATURDAY WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID  
50S TO LOW 60S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH  
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TOPPING 30 KTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES  
ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT INTO TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025  
 
A GALE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS  
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING  
SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, BRINGING  
STRONGER WINDS IN IT’S WAKE. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS  
TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL  
BUILD HIGHER SEAS, WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FEET POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF  
WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THURSDAY, AS WINDS  
WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING SEAS TO  
SLOWLY SUBSIDE. LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN  
THIS WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025  
 
IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT MUCH DRIER AIR AND STRONGER  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO THE LOW TEENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,  
WHILE 20 FOOT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 15-20 KNOTS WITH  
STRONGER GUSTS. THIS COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DRY FUELS,  
AND COULD SUPPORT RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR  
WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY,  
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LOWER THURSDAY, AND  
LIKELY WON’T SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
BROWNSVILLE 78 50 76 55 / 0 0 0 0  
HARLINGEN 79 46 78 48 / 0 0 0 0  
MCALLEN 81 49 80 52 / 0 0 0 0  
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 45 79 47 / 0 0 0 0  
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 53 73 66 / 0 0 0 0  
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 50 75 56 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.  
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ351-354-355-  
451-454-455.  
 
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-  
455.  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-  
455.  
 
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-  
170-175.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...60-BE  
LONG TERM....60-BE  
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN  
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