821
FXUS64 KBRO 301749
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* HEAT RISK (MINOR TO MODERATE) CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
* THERE IS A MODERATE (30-60%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHTENED WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, CONTINUING THE STREAM OF WARM, HUMID AIR
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. FOR THIS REASON, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A MINOR
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY EVENING, AND WILL BRING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL
BE PLEASANT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MONDAY
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR TUESDAY. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL, WITH SOME AREAS GETTING DOWN INTO
THE MID- 50S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING ARE
TRENDING A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATED.
PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 30-60%, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CLOSEST TO THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CAMS SEEM TO BE
IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS THAT FORM
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
TOTALS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SMALL, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING NO MORE
THAN HALF AN INCH. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FORM.
WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES INCLUDE ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN
A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE CAM
GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A STORM OR TWO COULD FORM OFF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN RANCHLANDS FRIDAY EVENING. IF THIS
THREAT DOES MATERIALIZE, NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT CAPE (WITH VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG
IN SOME AREAS) AND AMPLE MOISTURE, WIND SHEAR WILL BE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT STRONGER STORM DYNAMICS. IN ADDITION, A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE, WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS AREA THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
BEACH HAZARDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL AIRPORTS. LATER THIS EVENING, CEILINGS SHOULD
LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 04-05Z AND STAY MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SCEC CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED IN BOTH THE BAY AND THE
GULF, AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE BY MONDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS CALM. HOWEVER, SOME
INTERMITTENT SCEC IS POSSIBLE BY MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 76 91 62 73 / 0 0 60 40
HARLINGEN 73 93 60 76 / 0 10 60 30
MCALLEN 76 94 62 77 / 0 10 60 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 89 59 76 / 10 20 40 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 83 66 73 / 0 0 60 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 88 62 74 / 0 10 60 40
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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