952
FXUS64 KBRO 031128 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
628 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
* DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAY-TO-DAY DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ALONG A SEA BREEZE; BEST
TIMING WILL BE BETWEEN 11 AM TO 5 PM CDT.
* GENERALLY, THERE REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING,
THERE'S A MEDIUM-HIGH (40-70%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
* BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL,
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORKWEEK; HEAT RISK COULD BEGIN INCREASING
LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 5) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
DAILY TO NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
SEA BREEZE ON PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORYLINE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST SUITE OF COMPUTER MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN DEPICTING SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING IN TIME AS THIS WEEK WEARS ON.
HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING BETWEEN
1.8-2.5", SOME 2-3 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL, ELEVATED INSTABILITY VALUES,
AND INCREASED SFC CONVERGENCE FROM A SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT NEAR
DAY-TO-DAY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
IN GENERAL, THROUGH SATURDAY THERE REMAINS A LOW-MEDIUM (20-50%)
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY WILL PRESENT THE
GREATEST RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SEA
BREEZE INTERACTION AND SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES. THAT'S WHERE WE CONTINUE
TO HAVE MEDIUM-HIGH (40-70%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(HIGHEST WEST OF IH-69C/US-281). BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SINCE THE SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 11 AM TO 5 PM CDT
EACH DAY.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED NUISANCE PONDING OR FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN YOUR TYPICAL
LOW-LYING, URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
(WPC) HAS PLACED THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA (I.E. ZAPATA,
PARTS OF JIM HOGG AND STARR COUNTIES) UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF
4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES TO HAVE ALL
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS
AND THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
THE DAILY OR NEAR DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HELP TO KEEP THE HEAT IN CHECK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BALANCE OUT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE
PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN
BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 70S (80S
ACROSS SE CAMERON COUNTY) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT RISK COULD BEGIN PICKING UP LATE NEXT WEEKEND (SUNDAY) THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IF DRIER WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOP. CURRENTLY, WE HAVE MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 5) HEAT
RISK DEVELOPING OVER MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY
AND PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES ARE PROGGED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 105-110F DEGREES LATE WEEKEND INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL, WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
OUTSIDE OF THE DAILY OR NEAR DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT THOUGH NEXT MONDAY, ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS SUCH AS SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 78 90 79 / 50 10 20 0
HARLINGEN 90 74 89 75 / 50 20 20 0
MCALLEN 92 76 92 77 / 50 10 20 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 74 92 75 / 30 30 20 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 80 85 81 / 30 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 77 88 78 / 30 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...60-BE
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