263
FXUS64 KBRO 290528
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105-110 F MAINTAIN MOSTLY
MODERATE HEAT RISKS (LEVEL 2 OF 4) THROUGH MONDAY. MINOR
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE HEAT RISKS ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. A LOW CHANCE (15% OR LESS) OF
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS RETURNS LATER THIS WEEK ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
NORTHERN GULF WATERS (NORTHWARD FROM PORT MANSFIELD 0-60 NM
OUT) UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
UPDATE FOR TODAY'S AIR QUALITY INFORMATION IN DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK, LIMITING PRECIPITATION AND MAINTAINING A
MODERATE TO MINOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY
TO GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS 30-35 MPH. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S (80S ALONG THE COAST) AND
LOWS IN THE 70S. MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL PERSIST MONDAY ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH HEAT INDICES FROM 105-110 DEGF. HEAT INDICES
IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST, WITH A MINOR
(RANCHLANDS) TO MODERATE (RGV) RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY,
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN WILL INCREASE SUPPORT FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST (LOW CHANCES, LESS THAN 20%).
NASA/GMAO AEROSOL FORECASTS INDICATE A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST
INTRUDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
POOR AIR QUALITY THAT IS UNHEALTHY TO SENSITIVE GROUPS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES,
OUTSIDE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10-15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS, BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ADVERSE
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE SEAS DECREASE TO SLIGHT, AND WINDS LESSEN TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE BY MIDWEEK. FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH LOW (15% OR LESS) RAIN
CHANCES PERSISTING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 79 94 80 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 97 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 99 79 99 79 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 101 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 81 87 81 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 78 91 79 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-132-
135-155-175.
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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