965
FXUS64 KBRO 211717
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1217 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR RISK (3 OF 4) OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 105 TO AROUND 110 DEGREES.
- THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER COINCIDING
WITH LOW AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BRINGS A
CONTINUED RISK OF FIRE WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
LEAD TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S (CLOSER TO THE
COAST) TO LOW 100S WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110F EXPECTED. WE
CONTINUE TO REMAIN JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH DAY BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED 111F. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
THE NEED OF HEAT ADVISORIES, THOUGH AT THIS TIME SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS SHOULD SUFFICE. THERE IS A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK EVERY AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK.
WHILE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL (LESS THAN 5%), CAN NOT RULE OUT
VERY ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION OF LOWER RH VALUE AND ABNORMALLY
DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID WILDFIRE
SPREAD IF IGNITED. WHILE WE WILL LOOK TO FALL SHY OF AND RED FLAG
WARNINGS OR FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS, OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT
RECOMMENDED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND GUST UP TO AROUND 20 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHILE GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WITH 2 TO 3 FT SEAS AND 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 98 80 99 79 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 102 76 104 75 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 104 79 105 78 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 105 77 105 76 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 81 90 80 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 78 98 78 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...68-AM
LONG TERM....68-AM
AVIATION...68-AM
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