112
FXUS64 KBRO 130351
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1051 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) IS IN EFFECT ON SUNDAY ACROSS
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BARRIER
ISLANDS, FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108-111 F.
- WIDESPREAD EXTREME RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 4/4)
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY, GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM A MAJOR (LEVEL
3/4) AND EXTREME RISK ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO A MAINLY
MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) RISK BY THURSDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PREVAIL, MOST CONCERNING SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
- ASIDE FROM A LOW (15-20%) OF RAIN ON SUNDAY, HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DAILY AFTERNOON LOW
(15-30%) CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN BY MIDWEEK, INCREASING TO AS
MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT BECOMES A LOW-RISK BY
SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COULD DELIVER A LOW (15-20%)
CHANCE OF BRIEF AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO, ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO THE LOWER RGV ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY MORNING (15% CHANCE). DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED
ELEVATED MOISTURE CONTENT (PWAT UP TO AS HIGH AS 1.9-2.0+ IN.) AND
OTHERWISE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS, AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS,
MINUS THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ON SUNDAY FOR HEAT INDICES WARMING TO
AROUND 108-111 F, GENERALLY WITHIN THE HOURS OF 12 PM TO 6 PM,
THOUGH A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY SURPASS 111 F. WIDESPREAD EXTREME
RISKS OF OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES AND SPSS FOR HEAT ARE LIKELY
ON MONDAY AS WELL.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BUILDS TO 597+ DAM
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY TUESDAY, DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
REDUCE CHANCES OF RAIN TO 10% OR LESS ON TUESDAY AND RESULT IN A
MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK INTO WEDNESDAY, AS HIGHS CONTINUE SOARING
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, INTO THE LOW/MID 100S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS,
THOUGH TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 100S (AROUND 107+ F) OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. FOLLOWING, A CONSIDERABLE BREAK IN THE HEAT IS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE (PWAT OF 2.0-
2.0+ IN.) OVER THE GULF SEEPS WESTWARD INTO OUR CWA VIA EASTERLY
WINDS, INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FROM A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE ON
WEDNESDAY TO A REGION-WIDE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGHEST ALONG/EAST OF US-281, WITH ADDITIONAL
LOW CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUDS SHOULD HELP REDUCE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO MAINLY THE UPPER 90S, THOUGH LOWER 100S ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, AS WELL AS REDUCE HEAT RISKS
TO A MAINLY MODERATE RISK BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SPSS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BORDERLINE TO BELOW FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH THE GREATEST RISKS
EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
AROUND 15-20 MPH AND GUSTING TO 25-30+ MPH, COINCIDE WITH MINIMIZING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT TONIGHT BECOMES A LOW
RISK SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT TO A GENTLE BREEZE, THOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL
BREEZY GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK
BACK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, PROB30S HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED
FOR KHRL AND KBRO TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, IN
WHICH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISIBILITY, OR TWO,
ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE
AND EASTERLY BY MIDWEEK WHILE SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4 FT) SEAS
PREVAIL. PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. CHANCES OF RAIN
GRADUALLY WANE FROM A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE ON SUNDAY DOWN
TO 10% OR LESS BY TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FROM A LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY TO AS MUCH AS A MEDIUM
(40-60%) ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOWER CHANCES OVER
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 82 97 81 97 / 10 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 78 101 78 101 / 10 10 10 10
MCALLEN 82 102 81 103 / 0 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 80 104 80 104 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 90 82 90 / 10 20 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 96 79 96 / 10 20 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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