598
FXUS64 KBRO 221801
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1201 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO SUBSIDE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE RETURNING TUESDAY.
- ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO
MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS.
- AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING AS
RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER NORTH.
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY, AGAIN, STALLING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME
TIME, ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
FORECAST TO LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 70S, WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 80S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE THE COOLEST NIGHT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AND LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 40-50% AGAIN TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY MOVE OVER AN
AIRFIELD, WHICH COULD DROP CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
LEVELS TEMPORARILY. HIRES MODELS SHOW MOST OF THE CONVECTION
SUBSIDING AROUND THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING, THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, LIKELY DROPPING CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS,
THOUGH IFR OR LIFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS, BUILDING SEAS TO 5-6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVERSE
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 87 72 86 73 / 50 20 20 0
HARLINGEN 88 69 88 69 / 50 20 20 0
MCALLEN 90 72 90 73 / 50 30 20 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 89 70 90 70 / 40 40 20 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 75 82 76 / 50 30 20 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 71 85 71 / 50 30 20 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60-BE
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