502
FXUS64 KBRO 151842
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
142 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE (60-80%) OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS.
- COASTAL AND MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 (UPPER 70S-80S NEAR THE COAST) AND MORNING LOWS IN
THE LOW 70S THROUGH SATURDAY. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ON FRIDAY. THESE SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT FRIDAY IN PARTICULAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
AT LOCAL BEACHES, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A NEW MOON THIS
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE RISK ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BROUGHT ABOUT BY
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
COASTAL TROUGHING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CONTINUE LIGHT STRATIFORM
RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME IS FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES (60-80%) REGION WIDE -
HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE UPPER RGV. EARLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT MOST LIKELY AROUND 0.5-1.0" BETWEEN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BRIEF MVFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH LOW CLOUDS INCREASING IN COVERAGE TEMPORARILY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT, WINDS LESSEN AND MVFR CIGS BUILD, PERSISTING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE BREEZE MAINTAINS MODERATE SEAS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING PERIODS OF
STRONG GUSTS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS OUT TO
20 NM. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOONS, WITH BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE. FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY,
LEAVING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE LAGUNA
MADRE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WEEKEND, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS WATERS IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. EXPECT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE
GUSTS AND ROUGH SEAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 87 73 88 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 74 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 71 95 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 79 74 80 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 86 72 86 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page