473
FXUS64 KBRO 051133 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
533 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) OR DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
ISSUED OVERNIGHT.
- PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US 281/I-69
C, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, WITH
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S LIKELY.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
BEFORE GETTING INTO THE MEAT OF THE FORECAST, WOULD LIKE TO DISCUSS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE. WHILE SHORT RANGE HI RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG, THERE IS
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE (VISIBILITIES
REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS), COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER RGV
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THE PROBABILITIES OF
DENSE FOG IN THESE AREAS STILL DIVERGE GREATLY AS SREF HOLDS A
70% CHANCE WHILE HREF ONLY YIELDS A 30% CHANCE. EITHER WAY, AN SPS
OR DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED IF OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE
INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT/EARLY MORNING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST.
TONIGHT, A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD
OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO, APPROACHING AND LINGERING NEAR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH MIDWEEK, MAINTAINING ZONAL TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING TO RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS (POPS
LESS THAN 10%) THROUGH FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF SHIFTS WINDS FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT TO SOUTH-SOUTHESTERLY MONDAY INTO THURSDAY.
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AS WELL, LEADING TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, CAUSING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US
281/I-69 C, WHERE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, POTENTIALLY
UP TO 30 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND THE PARENT TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT, A WEAK AND DRY
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EITHER LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH. THE DEEPENING TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COULD
SEND A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OR SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES OF RAIN MAY INCREASE TO
A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE.
A SLIGHTLY "COOLER" AIRMASS (IN COMPARISON TO LAST WEEK) AND
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT IS
LIKELY TO ALLOW FOR MONDAY MORNING LOWS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND 60S FOR THE RGV, WHICH IS STILL
NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. AS ENHANCED LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS MONDAY AND
PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
MAINLY THE 60S WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S,
WHICH IS NEAR 15 DEGREES, OR EVEN WARMER, ABOVE NORMAL. THAT
SAID, NEAR RECORD TO RECORD- BREAKING HIGHS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES COULD FINALLY
FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE, MOST NOTABLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
A MIXTURE OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN THE REGION AND
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER WITH
THE SUNRISE AND WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK WITH THE MORNING HOURS, THE
FOG SHOULD BE OUT OF THE WAY FAIRLY SOON. AFTERWARDS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD START TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AROUND THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1004 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT (1-2 FEET) SEAS SHIFT
TO SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY MORNING, ENHANCING TO MOSTLY MODERATE WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-3 FEET) SEAS BY MONDAY EVENING, CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC),
POSSIBLY EVEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HEADLINES, ARE ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AS A LOCALLY ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS, LEADING TO MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE (3-5 FEET) SEAS. WINDS DIMINISH BRIEFLY THURSDAY
EVENING, SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WITH MODERATE SEAS CONTINUING. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT OR SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY RE-ENHANCE
WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE
TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 83 67 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 84 63 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 87 66 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 87 62 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 69 77 69 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 65 83 65 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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