197
FXUS64 KBRO 110559 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- HOT, MAINLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BROOKS, COASTAL CAMERON,
COASTAL KENEDY, COASTAL WILLACY, INLAND CAMERON, INLAND KENEDY,
INLAND WILLACY, NORTHERN HIDALGO, SOUTHERN HIDALGO, AND STARR
COUNTIES FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS, OUTSIDE OF THE ISLAND FOR FRIDAY.
- A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, EXCLUDING THE COASTAL AND ISLAND COUNTIES FROM 1-7 PM
CDT FRIDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION).
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS
FROM 1-8 PM CDT FRIDAY DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS (SEE
MARINE SECTION).
- RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT LEAST (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO INCREASING AREAS OF EXTREME (LEVEL
4 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR STARR, HIDALGO, THE
COASTAL AND INLAND PORTIONS OF KENEDY, WILLACY AND CAMERON
COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
HOT, MAINLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN WEATHER STORYLINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG AND ELONGATED 591-594 DAM HEAT RIDGE COMPLEX
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS PERSISTENT AND DOMINANT
FEATURE IN OUR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-
BREAKING HEAT IN THE DAYS AHEAD (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS). HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 105-
115F DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO WARRANT DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAILY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPSS) AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES THROUGH
THIS WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF,
WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK TO INCREASING AREAS OF
EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AT TIMES BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, WE'LL KEEP CLOSE WATCH AND MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY, LOW GRADE (20-30%) CHANCES EXISTS SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CURRENTLY, WE HAVE
MEDIUM CHANCES (30-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS THE PATTERN COULD POTENTIALLY TURN WETTER, FINALLY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MODERATE TO BREEZY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
COURTESY OF BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY. MAINLY MODERATE SEAS, AT TIMES REACHING SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) LEVELS WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCEC TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DUE TO THE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS ON FRIDAY
FROM 1-8 PM CDT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY FROM 1-7PM
CDT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN
20-45%, COUPLED WITH VERY DRY ANTECEDENT SOILS, AND BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES ON FRIDAY. MAKE SURE TO
EXERCISE SAFE FIRE WEATHER PRACTICES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY, COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT AND STRONG 591-594 DAM HEAT
RIDGE COMPLEX ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. BELOW IS A LIST OF
THE RECORD HIGHS FROM FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 11TH TO SUNDAY SEPTEMBER
13TH.
FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 11, 2026:
BROWNSVILLE: 100F IN 1900 & 1893
HARLINGEN: 103F IN 1937
MCALLEN: 103F IN 2023
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2026:
BROWNSVILLE: 100F IN 1919
HARLINGEN: 101F IN 2011 & 1930
MCALLEN: 103F IN 1987
SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 13, 2026:
BROWNSVILLE: 100F IN 2023 & 1900
HARLINGEN: 100F IN 1961, 2011, & 2023
MCALLEN: 104F IN 1987
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 99 81 99 81 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 103 78 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 105 81 104 81 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 107 80 107 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 91 83 91 82 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 98 79 97 79 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ250>255-351-353>355.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...63-KC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page