868
FXUS64 KBRO 280306
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1006 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1001 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- VERY HOT, RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH AREAS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF
4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
- WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS, AND VERY HIGH EVAPORATION RATES.
- THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS, LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES,
AND HOT TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISKS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- THERE REMAINS LOW (30% OR LESS) CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND EAST OF IH-69C/US-281.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A BROAD AND STRONG 591-594 DAM SUB-TROPICAL HEAT DOME WILL CONTINUE
TO YIELD HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK OR INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
THIS HEAT DOME WILL WEAKEN SOME AND BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE
4-CORNERS REGION TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE SITUATION, WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEATING
INCLUDING OVER HARLINGEN AND BROWNSVILLE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE FACT THAT
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE IN THE HOTTEST PART OF THE YEAR (I.E.
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MCALLEN IS 100F DEGREES) AND YET
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE 3-6F DEGREES HOTTER THAN
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS EVEN FOR THE RGV'S STANDARDS IN THE DAYS
AHEAD. THAT SAID, WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH AREAS OF
EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY STRONG EVAPORATION RATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A CONTINUATION OF WORSENING OR EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THIS STRETCH. A
COUPLE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CHANCES
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW RANGING BETWEEN 20-30% WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING ALONG AND EAST OF IH-69C/US-281.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z
TAF CYCLE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS WILL SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
IF NOT CALM. ON FRIDAY, THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT WILL PICK BACK
UP WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-15 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS (1 TO 3 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS) AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A MASSIVE AND STRONG 591-594 DAM HEAT DOME SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 4-8F
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGHS FOR AUGUST 28:
FRIDAY AUGUST 28TH, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 106F IN 2023
HARLINGEN: 106F IN 2011
MCALLEN: 107F IN 2023
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 99 80 97 / 0 10 10 30
HARLINGEN 76 102 76 100 / 0 10 0 20
MCALLEN 80 104 80 103 / 0 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 104 78 103 / 0 0 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 81 89 / 0 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 96 78 95 / 0 0 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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