585
FXUS64 KBRO 071729
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1229 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- MINOR TO MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS THIS WEEKEND, BUT
"FEELS LIKE" TEMPS REMAIN IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT BUILDS
YET AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
- LOW-END RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
ALONG THE COAST.
- PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MID-RGV HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2). BREEZY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE CONCERN
FOR FIRE SPREAD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
BEING SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST MOSTLY COPACETIC. DEEP MOISTURE FUNNELING INTO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND, PAIRED WITH SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THESE HIGHS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EACH DAY INTO MONDAY.
20% RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY,
WHERE RAIN CHANCES PEAK AT 40% DURING THE AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY
ALONG US281 AND EAST, BUT A STRAGGLER OR TWO MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BRING PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY, BUT HOW LONG THIS MOISTURE STICKS AROUND IS DEPENDENT
ON THE STRENGTHENING OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. IF THE ATMOSPHERE
STAYS DECENTLY MOIST, RAIN CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED ACTIVITY (15% CHANCE) ALONG THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS WEEKEND MAY BRING BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY WINDS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED A HALF AN INCH, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
UNDER HEAVY OR TRAINING SHOWERS.
INCREASED MOISTURE, CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN WILL HELP TO LIMIT
APPARENT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND - BUT GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS UP
TO A STICKY 109 HEAT INDEX. HEAT ADVISORIES SEEM UNLIKELY FOR THE
NEAR-TERM, BUT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPS) FOR HEAT REMAIN
POSSIBLE. RIDGING EXPANDS OVER TX EARLY NEXT WEEK, RETURNING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WORKWEEK, BUT WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT TO INCREASE YET
AGAIN. BY EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK, MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS RETURNS, ALONG WITH A DAILY CHANCE FOR HEAT
ADVISORY OR SPS. NEXT WEEKS RE-HEATING WILL RETURN GUSTY WINDS TO
25+ MPH IN THE AFTERNOONS.
ALMOST HALF OF THE CWA (45%) IS EXPERIENCING A MODERATE (D1) OR
WORSE DROUGHT, WITH PORTIONS OF THE LOW/MID RGV RECENTLY UPGRADED TO
A SEVERE DROUGHT (D2). DRY FUELS, GUSTY WINDS, AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE
(MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES 20-50%) MAY RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL SITES,
LESSENING UP NEAR SUNSET. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEABREEZE
HEADING INLAND. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING IF OR WHEN
THESE SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER A TAF SITE. IF A SHOWER OR STORM
HAPPENS TO PASS OVER AN AIRFIELD, EXPECT BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS,
AND POSSIBLE LIGHTNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM LOW TODAY (20%),
PEAKING AT LOW TO MODERATE (30-50%) SUNDAY MORNING. GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY TO ONSHORE MODERATE TO GENTLE FLOW WITH SLIGHT SEAS
WILL PERSIST, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE NEARSHORE AND LAGUNA
MADRE EACH AFTERNOON. FLOW STRENGTHENS NEXT WEEK TO A MORE
CONSISTENT MODERATE, AND MAY RETURN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 94 79 94 / 0 20 10 30
HARLINGEN 74 95 75 96 / 0 10 10 40
MCALLEN 79 100 79 100 / 0 10 0 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 100 77 100 / 10 10 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 80 88 / 0 10 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 92 78 93 / 0 10 10 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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