696
FXUS64 KBRO 031815
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
115 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
- MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- A COMBINATION LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, DRY GRASSES, AND HOT
TEMPERATURES MAY RAISE CONCERNS FOR FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-69C ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND, BUT SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS LOW
RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY,
RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 114 DEGREES. ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RUN AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH HISTORICAL DATA FROM LABOR DAY INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF AT LEAST 100 DEGREES IS 1%
FOR BROWNSVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, 8% FOR HARLINGEN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, AND 21% FOR MCALLEN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
WHILE THESE ODDS ARE PROMISING, THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD HEAT
INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 106-113 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST LABOR DAY. IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS, CONTINUE TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
LOW RAIN/STORM CHANCES (AROUND 20-30%) RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND ON
LABOR DAY, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US-281. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS WEAK MID LEVEL
ENERGY TRANSLATES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF RIDGING ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE, MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INLAND. TAKING A LOOK AT SOME LABOR DAY CLIMATOLOGY STATISTICS,
THE CHANCE OF RECEIVING AT GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 0.01 INCHES OF
RAIN ON LABOR DAY IS 33% FOR BROWNSVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT,
45% FOR HARLINGEN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, AND 25% FOR MCALLEN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WE’LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 5-10
KNOTS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF
WATERS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK OVER THE GULF WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE, WITH NEAR DAILY
CHANCES RANGING FROM AROUND 20-40%. LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND
SEAS ARE LIKELY WITHIN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY SEPTEMBER. HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORDS FOR
BROWNSVILLE, HARLINGEN, AND MCALLEN THROUGH THIS FRIDAY.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3
BROWNSVILLE: 102F (2011)
HARLINGEN: 106F (2011)
MCALLEN: 106F (2011)
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 4
BROWNSVILLE: 103F (2011, 2000)
HARLINGEN: 107F (2011)
MCALLEN: 108F (2011)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 82 98 81 98 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 78 102 77 101 / 0 0 0 20
MCALLEN 82 104 81 103 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 80 105 79 104 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 90 82 90 / 0 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 96 79 96 / 0 0 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251>255-351-354-
355.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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