547
FXUS64 KBRO 070533 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1233 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- MEDIUM TO LIKELY (40-80%) CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE ALONG/EAST
OF I-69C WEDNESDAY BECOMING A REGION- WIDE LOW TO MEDIUM
(30-60%) CHANCE ON THURSDAY WITH A LOW (30%) CHANCE ALONG THE
COAST FRIDAY.
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF.
THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THIS SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE AS IT
TRAVELS NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF AND DIRECT IMPACTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
- MOSTLY MINOR RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) BECOME
MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) BY NEXT MONDAY AS DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, PRIMARILY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-69C. HI RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND STREAMING
INLAND WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. CAMERON AND WILLACY
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST RAINFALL, WITH 24 HOUR
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US LOOKS TO DIG FURTHER
SOUTH, WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASED FORCING ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS , SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A DRIER PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP, AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS TEXAS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF, AND
IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT TRAVELS NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF, ANY IMPACTS
TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. BRO RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES A FEW
BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS
EXTENDING TO NEAR THE COAST. THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN INCREASES
OVERNIGHT WITH SHRA BECOMING LIKELY AT BRO AND HRL. SHRA AND TSRA
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND IN CONVECTION. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
GENERALLY ADVERSE TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO 5-6 FEET BY FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.
WINDS AND SEAS LOOK T O IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WINDS SHIFT
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE
OF STORMS IS LIKELY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF, AND IS
FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT HEADS TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE AS IT TRAVELS NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF. SOME
INCREASE IN SWELL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST,
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK LIKELY WON’T SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 77 92 77 / 80 40 60 20
HARLINGEN 92 72 94 72 / 60 20 50 20
MCALLEN 96 76 97 74 / 40 10 30 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 73 95 71 / 10 10 30 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 86 81 / 80 60 50 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 76 90 76 / 80 40 50 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...63-KC
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