236
FXUS64 KBRO 201140 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
640 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 629 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL DANGEROUS, HEAT INDICES AND MODERATE
TO MAJOR HEAT RISKS (LEVELS 2 AND 3 OF 4) CONTINUE INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SPSS FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108 TO
111 F STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- WPC INCLUDES THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF JIM HOGG
AND STARR COUNTIES AND ALL AREAS EASTWARD WITHIN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING FOR AREAS FURTHER WEST TONIGHT IN ADDITION TO A
MARGINAL RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RESUME ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE HEAT RISKS BY
WEDNESDAY AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES COOL SLIGHTLY TO AROUND
100-110 F.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WE'LL START OFF BY FOCUSING ON THE HEAT, WHICH HAS BEEN EXTREME OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
SEASONABLY HOT IN COMPARISON TO THIS PAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
MAXIMIZING AND MINIMIZING IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S, RESPECTIVELY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN VERY MOIST INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISKS
LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREFORE, SPSS FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108-111
F ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN
CLOUDS CLEAR AND MAJOR HEAT RISKS EXPAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT FULLY OUT OF THE QUESTION
AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN SPS ON SATURDAY IS STILL UP IN THE AIR
AT THIS TIME AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW CONVECTION TONIGHT PLAYS
OUT; AN SPS MAY BE ISSUED EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES GENERALLY TREND COOLER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, RANGING FROM 100 TO 110 F.
NOW FOR THE WEATHER PATTERN: A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS, WEDGED
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OVER THE
GULF, HAVE LED TO A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD OVER ZAPATA AND INTO THE UPPER RGV AND NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS, PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
LED TO SPSS OVER THE CORPUS CHRISTI CWA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
ZAPATA AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES THIS EVENING, FOR STRONG WINDS UP TO 40
MPH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL, RESULTING FROM BETTER
FORCING ALOFT. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONTINUE THIS ACTIVITY FURTHER
EAST BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE US-
281 CORRIDOR. YET, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE, THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE,
THAT CONVECTION COULD KEEP DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH
OVERNIGHT; LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES OF RAIN FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST DECREASE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH EXPAND TO A LOW (15-30%)
CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO
HIGH PWATS (> 2.0 IN.)IN PLACE, HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. THEREFORE, WPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK
OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT TO AS FAR EAST AS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF JIM HOGG AND THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF STARR COUNTIES AS WELL AS A MARGINAL RISK OF POSSIBLE
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING EASTWARD TO THE COAST.
ON SATURDAY, A PLUME OF DEEP, TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE CWA,
SURGING PWATS TO 2.0-2.5 IN., WITH POCKETS OF 2.7+, POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH WEAKER BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED, LOWERING HEIGHTS,
WEAKENED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COULD HELP TO GENERATE SCATTERED POP-UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN; WPC
HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY FROM EXCESSIVE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. STILL DEPENDENT ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT,
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD GENERATE MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION
ALONG/EAST OF US-281, WHERE THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ELSEWHERE (20-40%). CHANCES OF RAIN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH EAST TO WEST THROUGHOUT SATURDAY EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TAKES OVER BY SUNDAY, LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS, WITH CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW 10% THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL INCLUDE A
TEMPO AT HRL AND MFE FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, FULL
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND MID MORNING. THERE IS
A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST BRO RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST CAM MODELS, ESPECIALLY
THE HRRR, SUGGEST THAT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST WITH ANOTHER ROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NEAR MFE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND ANY CONVECTION. LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS THIS
SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME MODERATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTS IN MODERATE TO FRESH, OCCASIONALLY STRONG,
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (4-6 FT) SEAS. WINDS MAY EASE
JUST A BIT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE PICKING BACK UP
TOWARDS AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 93 83 94 83 / 30 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 93 80 95 80 / 40 20 0 0
MCALLEN 94 82 96 82 / 40 30 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 79 98 79 / 40 30 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 84 89 85 / 30 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 82 93 82 / 30 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...63-KC
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