606
FXUS64 KBRO 281725
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- VERY HOT, RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT
RISK IS EXPECTED.
- THERE REMAINS A LOW (25% OR LESS) CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF IH-69C/US-281,
EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE 500MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SW ELONGATES
AND SHIFTS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MID-SUMMER LIKE HEAT AND
BEGIN A MORE PERSISTENT INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WEAKER PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF
COAST MAY COMBINE WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE TO INITIATE ISOLATED SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. CURRENT POPS SIT AROUND 20 PERCENT OR
LESS THIS WEEKEND AND BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NEXT WEEK. NEAR DAILY
SURGES OF PWAT VALUES TO 2.1 INCHES, NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
LATE AUGUST AND EARLY SEPTEMBER, ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER, MODEL QPF
REMAINS BLEAK AND VERY ISOLATED, WITH NO DROUGHT RELIEF EXPECTED.
THE ADDED HUMIDITY ON TOP OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE A MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT
RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS EACH DAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO RELIEF
EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
A SOUTHEAST BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A DAILY MODERATE CHOP IS EXPECTED ON
THE BAY NEXT WEEK WITH GULF SEAS OF GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FEET. THERE
IS A LOW (LESS THAN 25 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 97 80 97 / 0 20 0 20
HARLINGEN 75 100 75 101 / 0 20 0 20
MCALLEN 80 103 80 103 / 0 10 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 103 78 103 / 10 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 81 89 / 0 10 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 95 78 96 / 0 10 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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