844
FXUS64 KBRO 131724
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1224 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
* HEAT RISK RETURNS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT
ADVISORIES COULD BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.
* LOW TO MODERATE (30-40%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THIS NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
TEXAS. HEAT RISK WILL BECOME A CONCERN AGAIN STARTING ON FRIDAY.
MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, AND THIS WILL
INCREASE TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
HEAT RISK, AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS, PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-69C.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL ALSO BE MONDAY, WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM OFF OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND MAKE THEIR WAY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. AS OF NOW, THERE IS
A LOW TO MODERATE (30-40%) CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS WEST
OF I-69C FOR MONDAY. CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR TUESDAY
ALL OVER THE REGION, BUT THEN INCREASE BACK TO 30-40% FOR ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD IN AREAS WHERE THE WINDS ARE NOT ALREADY SOUTHEASTERLY
(PARTICULARLY IN HRL WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE EASTERLY BUT
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT WINDS
COULD INCREASE CREATING SCEC AND POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. THESE COULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 69 91 74 90 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 63 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 68 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 67 93 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 83 77 84 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 89 74 89 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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