034
FXUS64 KBRO 301811
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
111 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
* FAVORABLE BEACH CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY
WORSEN THROUGH THE WEEK, AS EASTERLY SWELL INCREASES RIP
CURRENT INTENSITY TO POTENTIALLY HIGH WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, WITH A
LOW (10-20%) PROBABILITY OF TIDAL RUN-UP TOWARD THE DUNES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALONG WITH BETTER OPPORTUNIES FOR RAIN AND
SOME LIGHTNING, WHICH COULD IMPACT LARGER POST-GRADUATION
CROWDS
* FAVORABLE GULF BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE
EASTERLY SWELL BEGINS INCREASING BY MID-WEEK AND COULD PEAK
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORE FREQUENT RAIN WITH
SOME LIGHTNING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
* RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE END OF MAY/EARLY JUNE HEAT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
* MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGIN TO ARRIVE MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/NEAR THE COAST EACH MORNING DEVELOPING
INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE CLOSE OF MAY AND START
OF JUNE WILL BE QUITE NICE, WITH CLEAN SKIES UNDER LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST- SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (LOW TO
MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON POPULATED VALLEY, MID TO UPPER 90S BRUSH
COUNTRY/RIO GRANDE PLAINS) EACH AFTERNOON AND 70-75 EACH MORNING
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS BY
DAY. NEAR PERFECT BEACH CONDITIONS AS WELL, WITH INVITING SURF
TEMPERATURES (LOW TO MID 80S) AND RIP CURRENT INTENSITY SLIDING
BACK TO LOW. ABOUT THE ONLY MINOR ISSUE TO WATCH IS RURAL
GROUND/FIELD FOG RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE RECENT WEEKS MOISTURE. ADDED A
COUPLE HOURS ACROSS THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A DEVELOPING/BROADENING PLUME OF MOISTURE
IN THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE NEAR/NORTH OF THE YUCATAN MAKES A BIT OF A WESTWARD
JOG MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS THE 500 MB RIDGE THAT PROVIDED THE DRY
WEEKEND BREAKS DOWN A LITTLE. A FINGER OF THIS PLUME MAY EDGE
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST, WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
ACTIVING THE MOISTURE A LITTLE BIT WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND. MONDAY'S
CHANCES/COVERAGE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, BUT TUESDAY SHOWS A LITTLE
MORE PROMISE. THAT SAID, THE ENHANCED MOISTURE WOULD ONLY HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY..."DIPPING" TO 2-4
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE (LOWER 90S VS. MID 90S) FOR MOST.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: ALOFT, THE 500 MB RIDGE GETS PINCHED
A BIT BY THE CONTINUED SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH AND NOW A
STRENGHTHENING AND DIPPING CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. THAT SAME PINCHED RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD BEHIND THIS
TROUGH, AND HELPS BUILD A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK BUT NOTABLE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
HANGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF TOWARD YUCATAN, WHICH INCREASES
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF,
INCLUDING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THIS IS A TEXTBOOK SETUP FOR A
LONG-PERIOD MODERATE EASTERLY SWELL TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF AND CREATE INITIALLY BUILDING SURF AND
WORSENING RIP CURRENT INTENSITY.
THOUGH PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE MODEST...AROUND THE
AVERAGE WAVE RUN-UP POINT...BY MID WEEK, THE OBSERVED VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING 0.75 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH HAS BEEN
SHORTENING THE BEACH A BIT LATELY. A PUSH FROM A BUILDING EASTERLY
SWELL COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PUSH OBSERVED VALUES 1 FOOT OR SO
ABOVE PREDICTED, WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASED WAVE PERIOD WOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO RUN TIDES UP CLOSER TO THE DUNES.
WEATHER-WISE, UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH OUTCOMES. RECENTLY
ARRIVING MODELS SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD
IN TIME, WHICH WOULD ALLOW A BIT MORE DEEPER MOISTURE TO ARRIVE ON
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY. THAT SAID, THERE ARE NO STRONG WAVES TO SUGGEST ANY
"SIERRA SLAMMER" (WEST TO EAST-MOVING SQUALLS) DURING THIS
PERIOD...SO FORCING WOULD BE A COMBINATION OF GENERAL WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL/WEST
CENTRAL GULF "BLOB" AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. NBM/WPC ARE
GENEREALLY BEARISH ON OVERALL RAINFALL FOR THIS WINDOW, WITH
~0.10" IN THE DETERMINISTIC WINDOW AND PROBABILITIES FOR 0.5 TO 1"
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 50% (MOSTLY 20-40%).
THAT SAID, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EVEN MODEST AFTERNOON SHOWER
COVERAGE CAN HELP NUDGE DOWN FORECAST HIGHS, AND THAT'S WHAT
HAPPENS WITH A CONTINUATION OF 2-5 DEGREE BELOW EARLY JUNE
AVERAGES FOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR FEW-SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IS THE STORY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY A MODEST SEA BREEZE "KICK" TO THE WINDS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...WHERE WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FRESH GUSTS JUST BELOW 20
KNOTS. WINDS WILL DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST AFTER
SUNSET, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL SOME MVFR CUMULUS FRACTUS
GETS GOING, ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK AROUND MCALLEN (THIS IS
ACTUALLY A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THIS PATTERN FOLLOWING WEEKS OF
PERIODIC RAIN). SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF THIS
MORNING WITH LOW VFR CUMULUS INCREASING, BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN
SCATTERED (VS BROKEN) FOR MOST.
HARLINGEN/VALLEY MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FIELD FOG (MIFG) THAT
COULD BRIEFLY BE CARRIED AS 1/4 TO 3/4 MILE IN METARS; FOR NOW
ELECTED TO ROLL A TEMPO 2SM BR TO GIVE A NOD TO THIS POTENTIAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AWAITING THE UPDATED WAVE FORECASTS FROM OUR MODEL WHICH RUNS
CLOSE TO 130 PM CT, BUT REGARDLESS OF FORECAST VALUES THIS RUN,
EXPECT THE TREND ON WAVES/WAVE PERIOD FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECTED FORECAST TODAY SHOULD PUSH
4, PERHAPS 5 FOOT WAVES INTO THE 20-60 NM LEG BUT END RESULT COULD
SEE 6 AND PERHAPS EVEN 7 FEET VALUES BY THE TIME WE GET TO
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND GENERAL SLIGHT
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD UNDER THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT, THOUGH EXPECT MOISTURE PLUME TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: EXPECT TO SWELL PERIOD TO INCREASE
WITH THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EAST-WEST FETCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF, AND WOULD NOT SURPRISE TO
SEE 8 OR EVEN 9 SECOND SWELL FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH AT LEAST A 10-30% CHANCE OF 6 FOOT COMBINED
SEAS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE
NEEDED FOR ALL OR PART OF THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY (LATE) THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC RAINS ESPECIALLY
THE FARTHER OFFSHORE ONE GOES WILL ADD TO THE INCREASE DIFFICULTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 92 79 92 / 0 0 0 20
HARLINGEN 73 92 76 92 / 0 0 0 30
MCALLEN 76 96 78 95 / 0 0 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 85 81 85 / 0 0 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 90 78 89 / 0 0 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52-GOLDSMITH
LONG TERM....52-GOLDSMITH
AVIATION...52-GOLDSMITH
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