502
FXUS64 KBRO 221719
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1119 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1112 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
- FIRST ARCTIC COLD FRONT OF 2026 ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
THE LATER FRONT ARRIVAL, FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND WILL POSE AN EXPOSURE RISK TO
THOSE OUTSIDE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING AND SWIMMING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW
DAYS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED DRIER WITH A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. ORIGINALLY, IT WAS THOUGHT THAT
THE FRONT WAS GOING TO ARRIVE EARLIER ON SATURDAY, BUT THE MODELS
KEEP TRENDING A LATER ARRIVAL THAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES THE NAM (WHICH TENDS TO HANDLE
COLD FRONTS BETTER FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS).
THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ALSO BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE AS WELL. THEREFORE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM, REACHING THE LOWER
80S WITH ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. ORIGINALLY
IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WOULD SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS IS LESS LIKELY NOW
DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND THE COLD AIR. CURRENT
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S FOR THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER
40S FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH NO ONE IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, ANY
CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS HAVE ALSO
DISAPPEARED WITH THE LATER FRONT ARRIVAL. THERE WILL STILL BE A LOW
20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH, AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
ONCE THE COLD AIR DOES ARRIVE, FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
YEAR THUS FAR. THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO FUNNEL IN DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLIER IN THE DAY REACHING THE
40S AND LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS, AND FREEZE
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE TRENDED COLDER FOR THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS BECAUSE SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOONER, ALLOWING FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, AND LOWS SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S. PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER RGV SHOULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING,
BUT IT IS STILL RECOMMENDED TO MAKE FREEZE PREPARATIONS REGARDLESS,
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF FREEZING FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS.
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS, IN COMBINATION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES, WILL
POSE A SIGNIFICANT EXPOSURE RISK FOR ANYONE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS,
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WHICH COULD LOWER WIND CHILLS SO THAT IT
FEELS LIKE IT IS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WIND
CHILLS WILL ALSO FEEL LIKE THE 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND COMMENCES. PEOPLE, PLANTS, PIPES, AND
PETS WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED ON THESE NIGHTS. SEA TURTLE STUNNINGS
IN THE BAY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ARCTIC TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND
COLDER AIR WILL HELP MITIGATE SEA TURTLE IMPACTS.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-TREATENING RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AT AREA BEACHES. THESE RISKS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND
INCREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AND FOG MAY
DEVELOP WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR AND IFR.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 15-16Z TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING
BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 64 81 69 / 10 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 80 61 82 65 / 0 0 0 20
MCALLEN 82 65 85 69 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 81 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 66 75 68 / 10 0 0 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 63 80 66 / 10 0 0 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page