905
FXUS64 KBRO 201802
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
102 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1259 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
- HOT, DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) CAN BE EXPECTED OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK
POSSIBLE.
- A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS, EXCLUDING THE COASTAL AND ISLAND COUNTIES TILL 7
PM CDT THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL FIRE STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THE WEEK.
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, EXCLUDING THE ISLAND, ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, AND
BROOKS COUNTIES TILL 7 PM THIS EVENING WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 108-113F. ADDITIONAL SPSS AND A POTENTIAL HEAT
ADVISORY, OR TWO, ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
HOT, DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AFTER PLAGUING THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS, AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH A MASSIVE HEAT WAVE
INCLUDING NUMEROUS RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES, AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG AND BROAD HEAT DOME IS IN THE PROCESS OF RETREATING AND
SHIFTING INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH A
STRONG 594-597 DAM SUB-TROPICAL HEAT DOME OR RIDGE OVER THE REGION
AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH IF NOT ALL OF TEXAS, THE HEAT MOVING FORWARD
THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE COMPARED TO PRIOR
DAYS. FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, 850 MB TEMPS
BETWEEN 20-26C WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE SFC RANGING BETWEEN 100-107F DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION (INCLUDING THE INLAND COASTAL COUNTIES) THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
NOT ONLY ARE THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS, BUT
SOME OF THESE VALUES ON SOME DAYS COULD BREAK OR CHALLENGE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
STRONG COMPRESSIONAL HEATING VIA STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED HEAT DOME WILL HELP TO LOWER THE DEWPOINT AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT, MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OR "FEEL-LIKE" TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS WHAT IT OTHERWISE COULD BE. THAT SAID, PEAK HEAT
INDICES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 100-115F
DEGREES WITH THE LOWER VALUES FAR WEST OR INLAND AND THE HIGHER
VALUES NEAR THE COAST. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) IS IN
EFFECT TODAY TILL 7 PM CDT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE ISLAND COUNTIES, ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, AND BROOKS
COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGH HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 108-113F
DEGREES. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPSS) OR BORDERLINE
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE DAYS AHEAD, PARTICULARLY FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MID-VALLEY TO ACCOUNT FOR PEAK HEAT INDICES
RANGING BETWEEN 108-115F DEGREES. WHILE THE STRONG COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING IS GOOD IN KEEPING THE HEAT IN CHECK, IT DOES RAISE THE RISK
FOR FIRES THROUGH THIS WEEK (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS).
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH POCKETS OF
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK OVER THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS AND
TOWNS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z
TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-15
KTS. WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL AT TIMES PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE NEEDED, PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. MARINE CONDITIONS COULD
POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE ADVERSE MID TO LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OR COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HEAT DOME
OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN REDUCED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO MEET FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD)
CRITERIA THROUGH THIS FRIDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH VALUES ALSO REACHING FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT (RFD) CRITERIA A TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK.
STRONG EVAPORATION RATES COMBINED WITH A LACK OF WIDESPREAD AND
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN NORMAL TO DRY FUELS ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE SITUATION, WE NEED TO KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS, PARTICULARLY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 594-597 DAM HEAT DOME OVER THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN A PERPETUAL STATE OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THAT INCLUDES
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY JULY 20:
BROWNSVILLE: 100F (1980)
HARLINGEN: 103F (1947)
MCALLEN: 107F (2009)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY JULY 21:
BROWNSVILLE: 99F (2023, 1980, 1909)
HARLINGEN: 102F (2012, 1924)
MCALLEN: 105F (1980)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 22:
BROWNSVILLE: 100F (2023)
HARLINGEN: 102F (1913)
MCALLEN: 105F (2018, 2009, 1980)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY JULY 23:
BROWNSVILLE: 101F (2018)
HARLINGEN: 104F (1943)
MCALLEN: 107F (2018)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 74 103 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 77 106 76 106 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 106 74 106 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 88 79 89 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 96 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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