622
FXUS64 KBRO 010432
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1032 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1026 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EACH AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
- ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS AND INCREASED RISKS OF RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
MUCH OF THE FORECAST FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS
THE SAME AS PREVIOUS UPDATES, WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, LEADING TO SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EACH AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO AROUND
20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER BY TUESDAY,
INCREASING AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH, OR GREATER, INTO THE
REMAINDER INTO THE LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK AS TROUGHING ALOFT
DEVELOPS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK TO THIS PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS RECENT RUNS OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF PORTRAY A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL DEEPENING
OVER THE WESTERN US.
AS FREEZE-CURED FUELS REMAIN ABUNDANT WITHIN THE MODERATE-SEVERE
DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION, THERE ARE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EACH
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. YET, CONCERNS ARE LIMITED AND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE BORDERLINE AS 20 FOOT WINDS
ARE BE A BIT TOO WEAK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE INCREASING
ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS FORECAST ELEMENTS MAY CHANGE. REGARDLESS, REFRAINING FROM
OUTDOOR BURNING AND BEING VERY CAUTIOUS OF FLAMES ARE STRONGLY
RECOMMENDED.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE BY TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FURTHER WEST
GRADUALLY EXPANDING EASTWARD TO AS FAR EAST AS I-69 E, PERHAPS
EVEN APPROACHING COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK. INLAND AREAS
FURTHER EAST RISE TO THE MID/UPPER 80S WHILE TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST REACH INTO THE MID 70S. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE 60S REGION-WIDE, POSSIBLY WARMING TO NEAR
70 F ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RGV BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RISKS
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ENHANCE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP OVER KHRL AND KMFE, POSSIBLY KBRO AS WELL, BY AROUND 09Z,
BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-3 FEET)
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS (0-20 NM), WHERE A LOCALLY
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ALONG
WITH MODERATE (3-6 FEET) SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS (0-60 NM). THERE
IS A LOW (15-30%) CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND
POSSIBLY A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 66 83 66 84 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 62 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 67 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 65 91 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 76 68 77 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 81 64 82 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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