033
FXUS64 KBRO 090556 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1256 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) IS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS, EXCLUDING THE ISLAND FOR WEDNESDAY; PEAK HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 108-112F DEGREES.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO INCREASING AREAS OF EXTREME
(LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE REMAINS A LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
HOT, MAINLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN WEATHER STORYLINE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG AND ELONGATED 591-594 DAM HEAT RIDGE COMPLEX REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS PERSISTENT AND DOMINANT FEATURE IN OUR
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
90S TO MID 100S THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 105-115F
DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO WARRANT DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAILY SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPSS) AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF, WIDESPREAD MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK TO INCREASING AREAS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF
4) HEAT RISK WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THIS WEEK (AT LEAST).
AIDED BY PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SITS ON THE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAT RIDGE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF IH- 69C/US-281.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
HOT, MAINLY DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN WEATHER STORYLINE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG AND ELONGATED 591-594 DAM HEAT RIDGE COMPLEX REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS PERSISTENT AND DOMINANT FEATURE IN OUR
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
90S TO MID 100S THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. PEAK HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 105-115F
DEGREES WILL CONTINUE TO WARRANT DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAILY SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPSS) AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AND VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF, WIDESPREAD MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK TO INCREASING AREAS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF
4) HEAT RISK WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THIS WEEK (AT LEAST).
AIDED BY PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, LOW-MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SITS ON THE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAT RIDGE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF IH- 69C/US-281.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IF ANY
STORMS MOVE OVER AN AIRFIELD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE WINDS AND
LOW SEAS (I.E. WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 1-3 FEET). MODERATE SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY, COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT AND STRONG 591-594 DAM HEAT RIDGE
COMPLEX ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE
RECORD HIGHS FROM WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 9TH TO SATURDAY SEPTEMBER
12TH.
WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 9, 2026:
BROWNSVILLE: 102F IN 1893
HARLINGEN: 102F IN 2023
MCALLEN: 103F IN 2023 & 2016
THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 10, 2026:
BROWNSVILLE: 102F IN 2023
HARLINGEN: 102F IN 2023
MCALLEN: 105F IN 2023
FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 11, 2026:
BROWNSVILLE: 100F IN 1900 & 1893
HARLINGEN: 103F IN 1937
MCALLEN: 103F IN 2023
SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2026:
BROWNSVILLE: 100F IN 1919
HARLINGEN: 101F IN 2011 & 1930
MCALLEN: 103F IN 1987
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 96 80 98 81 / 30 0 20 0
HARLINGEN 99 75 101 77 / 30 0 20 0
MCALLEN 102 80 103 81 / 30 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 103 78 104 79 / 10 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 90 82 / 20 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 78 96 79 / 20 10 20 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...60-BE
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