413
FXUS64 KBRO 101925
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
225 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 225 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FROM POSSIBLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A
FEW AREAS MAY RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH OR MORE, MOST LIKELY
ALONG/EAST OF US-281/I-69 E.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105 F ESCALATE TO 105-110 F
THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESS.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS AN INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO
TRANSPORT RICH, GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE 18Z SOUNDING
THIS AFTERNOON OBSERVED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.39 INCHES,
WHICH IS UPWARDS OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY. IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK GENERALLY
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE LATEST SUITE
OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE LOW/MID RGV BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
EXPECT LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN CHANCES ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MINOR OR NUISANCE FLOODING. AN ISOLATED 1-2 INCHES
OF RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY TRAINING
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ON SUNDAY, ANY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE CONFINED TO THE SEA
BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK AS RIDING ALOFT BUILDS AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CHANCES
REMAIN FAIRLY LOW (10% OR LESS). SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF JULY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
100-110 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT SHOULD COME TO AN END
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE REGION
GENERALLY RAIN-FREE TONIGHT, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS. LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DECREASING TO BELOW 10% NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 94 81 94 / 20 20 10 10
HARLINGEN 77 95 78 96 / 0 20 10 20
MCALLEN 80 98 80 99 / 0 20 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 98 78 99 / 10 40 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 82 88 / 30 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 80 93 / 20 10 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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