851
FXUS64 KBRO 210415
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1015 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE LAST NIGHT HAS BROUGHT A MUCH
WELCOMED AND NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR WIND SPEEDS TO FALL BELOW
10 MPH LATE THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT, NORTH WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
REGION WIDE, WHICH IS RIGHT ON PAR FOR LATE NOVEMBER. OVERALL, A
PLEASANT FALL DAY IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE.
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING DUE TO INCREASED WINDS
AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER TEXAS BEACHES
FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS ELEVATED SEAS COINCIDE WITH
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT(~10:57 PM).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE LONG TERM AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THE DEPARTING
TROUGH OVER ECONUS WILL BRING ZONAL 500HPA FLOW ALOFT, KEEPING
MOISTURE LOW. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF, A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A CHANCE OF COASTAL FLOODING. MOISTURE MAY
RETURN BY MIDWEEK, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIP (20%) BEING
OVER THE GULF WATERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND NORTHERLY, EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME VARIABLE BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 131 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM THIS
EVENING ALONG THE LAGUNA MADRE, AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER THE GULF
WATERS DUE TO BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE LATE WEEKEND WITH
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
AND/OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 54 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 78 49 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 82 51 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 45 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 67 74 67 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 55 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...55-MM
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