649
FXUS64 KBRO 201106 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
606 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 604 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* RAIN SHOWERS WITH POCKETS OF EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
* HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING; ADDITIONAL RAIN FALL AMOUNTS BY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE COAST
(I.E. AREAS EAST OF IH-69C).
* RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE BEGINS TO DWINDLE MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
* A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.
* TEMPERATURES WARM UP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RANGING
BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S (NEAR THE COAST) TO UPPER 90S (WEST)
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL BE THE RAIN CHANCES AND TRENDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD OR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LATEST SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTED AN OVERCAST DECK OF STRATUS TO
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
OCCURRING ACROSS 80% OF THE REGION. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OR COOL SECTOR A COOL FRONT WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD. THIS WEAK
SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE
REGION BEFORE WEAKENING BY TUESDAY.
CATEGORICAL CHANCES OR MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (55% TO 90%) FOR
SHOWERS ARE IN PLACE OVER ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCES AND
RADAR TRENDS, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OCCURRING TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM BROWNSVILLE SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF WATERS
EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND. THAT SAID, AREAS NEAR THE COAST ARE
FAVORED TO RECEIVE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY EVENING, RAINFALL OR QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST OF IH-69C.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF IH-60C. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER, RAINFALL CHANCES
AND COVERAGE WILL DROP RATHER QUICK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE AREA WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO LIFT/DEPART TO OUR NORTH.
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WE FINALLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN
CHANCES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 70S MOST PLACES. BY
TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE WARMUP CONTINUES EACH
DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
UPPER 90S WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING, WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER AT
THIS TIME. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE, BUT WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH
WHERE ANY SHOWERS PERSIST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
MOSTLY ADVERSE (SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION) CONDITIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE GULF
WATERS MAINLY BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS TILL 1 AM CDT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 69 82 70 / 60 40 40 10
HARLINGEN 72 66 83 67 / 60 40 50 10
MCALLEN 75 69 86 72 / 40 40 40 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 66 85 69 / 30 40 30 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 72 78 73 / 70 40 50 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 69 81 69 / 70 50 50 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page