749
FXUS64 KBRO 212334 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
534 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020
..00Z AVIATION UPDATE
DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED AND CLEARED NICELY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, YIELDING TO VFR CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATE VFR
TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, WINDS WILL SHIFT
EASTERLY, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY. OVERALL, WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE, HELPING DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN DURING THE MID-
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY, INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 303 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT): STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE AREA AND THE NORTHWEST GULF AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING ALSO MOVES OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LIGHT
WINDS WON'T REALLY BRING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN MUCH TONIGHT, JUST A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL IMPROVE INTO
THE 60S AS LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL DEVELOP FOR PART OF THE DAY, BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 50S. THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL BE RATHER TAME FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): 500MB LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. SUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST SUN AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS...MONDAY. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT
WHILE A SHORTWAVE 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS
TUESDAY. THE 12Z GFS PROGS ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUES NIGHT BEFORE A STRONG SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TUES NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST...TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WEST TEXAS WED AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST THURSDAY AND MOVE
EASTWARD FRIDAY ALLOWING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN THURS NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WILL ADJUST NBM POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT AS
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THAT
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS AND INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S ACROSS THE RGV.
MARINE (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ON THE GULF. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE NEAR
20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS, AND SEAS ARE ELEVATED ABOVE SEVEN
FEET. I EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT TO MIDNIGHT AS SEAS
SLOWLY DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREADING OVER THE AREA, SO
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. LOOK FOR MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES SUN AFTERNOON AND HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUN NIGHT AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS A
RESULT. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL
DIMINISH MON MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL
BEND. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MON
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY MON NIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AS THE FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD AND STALLS ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST. A STRONGER SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUES NIGHT AND
VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE LIKELY OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED WED NIGHT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
AND A GALE WATCH/WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WED NIGHT.
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
AVIATION UPDATE...MEJIA/67
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