700
FXUS64 KBRO 022207
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
507 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 504 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
* INTERMITTENT LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING FOR AREAS WEST OF I-69C ON FRIDAY.
* THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN
A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY, BUT DUE TO LOW FORECASTED RAIN TOTALS,
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW OF ANY ISOLATED FLOODING.
* LOW TO MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
DESPITE SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MEXICAN DESERT AND
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, SOME MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD FROM BAJA. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AND TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES MORE DEEPLY INTO THE AREA AS
WELL. ALL OF THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN OVERALL
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A SMALL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, MAINLY EAST OF I-
69C. WEDNESDAY, LOW TO MODERATE (20-40%) RAIN CHANCES EXPAND TO MOST
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER ON RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY, BUT A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE (30-50%) OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY EXISTS FOR THE WESTERN RANCHLANDS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
MOST LIKELY DAY FOR PRECIPITATION, WHERE CHANCES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
60% FOR AREAS WEST OF I-69C, LIKELY DUE TO SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION.
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER (20-30%) CLOSER TO THE COAST. CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 20-40% FOR MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF I-69C.
PRESENTLY, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
RANCHLANDS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR THURSDAY EVENING, AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. THOUGH THE RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
HEAVIER RAINFALL CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THIS TIME,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, AS QPF FOR THE AREA REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN BETWEEN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY
MORNING ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH OVER ALL THREE
DAYS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL
OCCURS, AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY RAINFALL AT ALL DUE TO THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ROBUSTLY MOIST, WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE RAIN-MAKING
EFFICIENCY OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM, DESPITE LOWER-
FORECASTED QPF.
HEAT RISK WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, AS
HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH WHICH WILL MAKE THE
TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE FEEL WARMER THAN THEY ACTUALLY ARE. THOUGH
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SEASONAL (UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S),
"FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID TRIPLE DIGITS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A LOW (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
HEAT RISK THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY....BY AND LARGE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. THERE COULD BE A FEW MVFR CLOUDS
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. THE LATEST GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LATEST ROUND OF SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION FIZZLING OUT AS IT SHIFTS WEST OF THE IH-69E
CORRIDOR INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THAT SAID, THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT FOR IMPROVING
FLYING CONDITIONS TOWARDS MAINLY VFR LEVELS (MAYBE A FEW MVFR
CLOUDS).
MOVING FORWARD INTO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE,
SPECIFICALLY DURING THE HOURS BETWEEN 18Z-23Z. HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-23Z/WED.
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OR PASS OVER THE TERMINALS
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITIES OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS
COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF DOWNGRADE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES RANGING FROM
MVFR-LIFR.
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL WEAKEN AND
TREND TOWARDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-12
KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK, WITH A
LOW POSSIBILITY OF SCEC CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS SLIGHTLY
INCREASE. THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTERMITTENTLY
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BOTH ALONG THE BAY AND OFFSHORE. WINDS SHOULD
BE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WITH LOW WAVE HEIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 90 77 90 / 10 30 10 10
HARLINGEN 75 90 74 90 / 10 30 10 10
MCALLEN 77 92 76 92 / 10 40 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 94 75 92 / 10 10 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 85 80 85 / 20 20 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 88 77 88 / 20 20 10 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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