745
FXUS64 KBRO 181752
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1252 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
* HOT, DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
* WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) CAN BE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK POSSIBLE.
* A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS, EXCLUDING THE COASTAL AND ISLAND COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL FIRE STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
* A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND
PORTIONS OF CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES TILL 7 PM THIS
EVENING AS HEAT INDICES PEAK AROUND 108-111F.
* ADDITIONAL SPSS AND A POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY, OR TWO, ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
* A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
HOT, DRY, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AFTER PLAGUING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND PLAINS, AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH A MASSIVE HEAT WAVE INCLUDING
NUMEROUS RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES, AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG AND
BROAD HEAT DOME WILL RETREAT AND SHIFT INTO THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. WITH A STRONG 594-597 DAM SUB-TROPICAL
HEAT DOME OR RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH IF NOT ALL
OF TEXAS, THE HEAT IN THE DAYS TO COME WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE
COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS. FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, 850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 20-26C WILL TRANSLATE TO WIDESPREAD
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SFC RANGING BETWEEN 100-107F DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION (INCLUDING THE INLAND COASTAL COUNTIES)
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NOT ONLY ARE THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATE
NORMALS, BUT SOME OF THESE VALUES ON SOME DAYS COULD BE RECORD TO
NEAR RECORD-BREAKING (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
STRONG COMPRESSIONAL HEATING VIA STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED HEAT DOME WILL HELP TO LOWER THE DEWPOINT AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT, MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OR "FEEL-LIKE" TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS WHAT IT TYPICALLY COULD BE. THAT SAID, PEAK HEAT
INDICES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 100-115F
DEGREES WITH THE LOWER VALUES FAR WEST OR INLAND AND THE HIGHER
VALUES NEAR THE COAST. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
(SPSS) OR BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE DAYS
AHEAD, PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THERE COULD BE
DAYS WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE RANGING BETWEEN 108-113F DEGREES.
WHILE THE STRONG COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IS GOOD IN KEEPING THE HEAT
IN CHECK, IT DOES RAISE THE RISK FOR FIRES THROUGH NEXT WEEK (SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH POCKETS OF
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK OVER THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS AND
TOWNS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z
TAF CYCLE, THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW MVFR CLOUDS AROUND FROM TIME
TO TIME, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15
KTS. WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AT
TIMES PRODUCE MODERATE WINDS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE
NEEDED, PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OR COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE HEAT DOME
OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN REDUCED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO MEET FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) CRITERIA.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH VALUES
ALSO REACHING FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) CRITERIA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
STRONG EVAPORATION RATES COMBINED WITH A LACK OF WIDESPREAD AND
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN NORMAL TO DRY FUELS ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE SITUATION, WE NEED TO KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON
OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME.
WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) FOR MOST OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF THE COUNTIES OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL AND ISLAND
COUNTIES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 594-597 DAM HEAT DOME OVER THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN A PERPETUAL STATE OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THAT INCLUDES
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY JULY 18:
BROWNSVILLE: 101F (2023)
HARLINGEN: 102F (1956)
MCALLEN: 105F (2018, 2009)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY JULY 19:
BROWNSVILLE: 100F (2023, 2009, 1918)
HARLINGEN: 102F (1938)
MCALLEN: 106F (2009)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY JULY 20:
BROWNSVILLE: 100F (1980)
HARLINGEN: 103F (1947)
MCALLEN: 107F (2009)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY JULY 21:
BROWNSVILLE: 99F (2023, 1980, 1909)
HARLINGEN: 102F (2012, 1924)
MCALLEN: 105F (1980)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 22:
BROWNSVILLE: 100F (2023)
HARLINGEN: 102F (1913)
MCALLEN: 105F (2018, 2009, 1980)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY JULY 23:
BROWNSVILLE: 101F (2018)
HARLINGEN: 104F (1943)
MCALLEN: 107F (2018)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 96 79 97 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 77 99 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 79 103 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 104 76 105 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 80 88 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 94 77 94 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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