809
FXUS64 KBRO 070005 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
705 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 700 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
* THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL, HEAVY AT TIMES, RETURNS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 2
OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
* THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BRUSH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A BAJA MID-LEVEL LOW BARRELS EAST INTO TEXAS BY THE WEEKEND
BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY HEADING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS,
AND WAS EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT STALL NEAR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON
THURSDAY, MEANDER AROUND THE AREA ON FRIDAY, AND GRADUALLY EDGE
OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. NBM HAS NOT HANDLED THE FRONT WELL SO FAR,
AND MAY BE SLOW AND TOO WARM AT THIS TIME. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH
NORTHERN OFFICES TO MIX CONSHORT AND BCCONSHORT INTO GUIDANCE,
SPEEDING UP AND COOLING DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE A LITTLE.
PWAT VALUES BUILD ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
ACROSS THE BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE WORKING
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, POTENTIALLY
REACHING 2.2 INCHES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY TO MID MARCH IS AROUND 1.75 INCHES, MEANING THIS IS AN
ABNORMALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. WPC HAS PLACED
A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
ZAPATA, STARR, SOUTHEASTERN JIM HOGG, AND WESTERN HIDALGO COUNTIES
FOR THURSDAY, AND THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS
GENERALLY CENTERED TOWARDS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
FRIDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH A SMALL SUBSET OF CAMS
FIRING CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT JUST ACROSS THE BORDER FROM ZAPATA
AND GRADUALLY WORKING IT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING,
A PERIOD QUICKER THAN NBM. WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW, ANY ACTIVITY
MAY ALSO BE SLOW-MOVING, PLAYING INTO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
EARLY RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 1-2 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST.
THERE IS A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT WEST OF ZAPATA AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TO MID
RGV. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND FLOODING RAINFALL WOULD BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANOTHER FRONT ON MONDAY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT RISK REMAINS MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BECOMING IFR AT KHRL AND
KBRO POSSIBLY BY 06Z. HOURLY CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
CHANGE TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR KMFE. HAVE LEFT
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING BUT EXPECT TO MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD EXPECTATIONS GROW
AND/OR REMAIN CONSISTENT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT,
SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST INTO TOMORROW. CEILINGS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. PROB30S ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING IF NOT LATE
TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO THURSDAY WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY
FLOW, MEANDERING AROUND THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH FRIDAY,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES ON
MONDAY WITH BRIEF NORTHERLY FLOW, BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
RETURN TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY BEHIND EACH FRONT
OR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 96 79 86 78 / 0 0 20 40
HARLINGEN 99 77 83 75 / 0 0 30 50
MCALLEN 101 78 84 75 / 0 10 40 60
RIO GRANDE CITY 100 77 85 73 / 0 10 40 60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 78 80 78 / 0 0 20 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 78 82 77 / 0 0 20 50
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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