422
FXUS64 KBRO 061716 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1216 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
* LOW (15-30%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY.
* MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVELS 1 AND 2 OF 4) HEAT RISKS TODAY BECOME
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEAT RISKS BY TOMORROW AS HEAT INDICES
INCREASE TO 100-108 F.
* A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAIN
YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS,
CAUSING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO EXIT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY ASIDE FROM A LOW (AT MOST, 15%)
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF US-281. TOMORROW, A
WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH COULD BRING
A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/EAST I-
69 E DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL AS A 15-30%
LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. YET, THIS COULD CHANGE AS SOME OF THE LATEST
RUNS OF CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS, THOUGH INCONSISTENT, INDICATE A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, EXTENDING FURTHER INLAND. AS MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS VERY HIGH, POTENTIALLY MAXIMIZING AS HIGH AS 2.0-2.5+ IN.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, DEEPER CONVECTION CAN
STILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ALOFT OVER THE GULF ON MONDAY AND INTO AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK, THUS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH A DAILY
SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE BY A FEW DEGREES, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER RGV, WHERE LOW/MID 90S INCREASE TO THE
MID/UPPER 90S BY MIDWEEK, WHEREAS MOSTLY LOW 90S RISE TO THE
LOWER/MID 90S ELSEWHERE. INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO TOMORROW,
FOLLOWED BY MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO ELEVATE
HEAT RISKS FROM A MINOR TO MODERATE RISK TODAY TO NEARLY WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEAT RISKS TOMORROW AND ONWARD, WITH MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES OF AROUND 100-108 F. SPSS FOR HEAT MAY BE POSSIBLE AT SOME
POINT DURING THE WEEK.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS, BROKEN
AT TIMES, ALONG WITH GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10-15
KNOTS. BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KBRO AND KHRL
EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. BREEZIER SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS, ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING AS WELL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4
FOOT) SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
RESULT IN MODERATE (4-6 FEET) SEAS. CONDITIONS EASE JUST A BIT
FOLLOWING, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE (3-5 FEET) SEAS. ROUNDS OF LOW (15-30%) CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 90 82 92 / 10 20 20 10
HARLINGEN 78 90 78 92 / 0 10 10 10
MCALLEN 80 92 80 93 / 0 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 94 78 94 / 0 10 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 86 84 87 / 20 20 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 89 81 90 / 10 20 20 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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