137
FXUS64 KBRO 261830
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- VERY HOT, RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH INCREASING AREAS OF EXTREME
(LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS, LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
VALUES, AND HOT TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
RISKS THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF IH-
69C/US-281.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
OPPRESSIVE SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN THROUGH EARLY SEPTEMBER ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
FOR MID TO LATE AUGUST, WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE REGION WIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ISLANDS…
ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. IN
COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 100-110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW AREAS BRIEFLY
REACHING 111-112 DEGREES. TO ADD TO THE OPPRESSIVE DAYTIME HEAT,
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ALSO WON’T PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF AS IT
REMAINS SEASONABLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES BRIEFLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE COMBINATION OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TRIPLE-
DIGIT HEAT, MILD NIGHTS, AND HUMIDITY (AMONG OTHER FACTORS), WILL
RESULT IN A MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT
RISK FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS UNFORTUNATELY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AS WELL. HOWEVER, THERE'S A GLIMMER OF HOPE AS SOME
GUIDANCE INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES ARE STILL
FAIRLY LOW (AROUND 10-25%), BUT WE’LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH LOW SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. BRIEF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 15-20 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF AUGUST. HERE ARE THE DAILY RECORDS FOR BROWNSVILLE,
HARLINGEN, AND MCALLEN THROUGH THIS FRIDAY.
WEDNESDAY AUGUST 26, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 101F IN 2019
HARLINGEN: 103F IN 1924 AND 1948
MCALLEN: 104F IN 2019 AND 2018
THURSDAY AUGUST 27, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 102F IN 2023
HARLINGEN: 104F IN 1948
MCALLEN: 105F IN 2018
FRIDAY AUGUST 28, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 106F IN 2023
HARLINGEN: 106F IN 2011
MCALLEN: 107F IN 2023
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 99 81 98 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 76 102 77 101 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 79 104 80 104 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 104 78 104 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 89 81 89 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 96 79 96 / 0 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22-GARCIA
LONG TERM....22-GARCIA
AVIATION...22-GARCIA
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