893
FXUS64 KBRO 151115 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
615 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE GOES INTO EFFECT
FRIDAY 1 PM UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
* A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVELS 1 AND 2 OF 4) THIS
WEEKEND BECOME A MOSTLY MAJOR HEAT RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) THIS
SUNDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
* HEAT RISKS DE-ESCALATE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
AS UNSETTLED WEATHER GRADUALLY INCREASES CHANCES OF RAIN TO AS
MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE.
* THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING OVER THE PLAINS AND
TROUGHING BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST SLOWLY PUSH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND TO THE GULF INTO
THIS WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SIERRA MADRE RESULT IN INCREASINGLY
BREEZIER SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, GUSTING TO 20-30+
MPH IN THE AFTERNOONS, THUS BUILDING MOISTURE CONTENT. DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND PWAT VALUES COULD SURPASS 2.0 IN.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
OF SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID/LATE MAY. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF
THESE FACTORS YIELD A MAINLY DRY, BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING CONCERNS FOR
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 95-100 F ARE
LIKELY TO CLIMB TO 105-110 F LATER IN THE WEEKEND, EVEN WARMING BY
A FEW DEGREES INTO NEXT TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE ANTICIPATE
MINOR HEAT RISKS TO ELEVATE TO A MODERATE HEAT RISK ON SATURDAY
THEN FURTHER DETERIORATE TO A MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR MOST OF THE
REGION BY NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SPSS AND/OR HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE 70S TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE 70S/80S BY POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
A MORE ROBUST TROUGH AND TRAILING SHORTWAVES ARRIVE OVER THE PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESULTING ROUNDS OF SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION COULD
LEAD TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG/WEST OF US-281
EACH NIGHT, BEGINNING POSSIBLY SUNDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER AND FORCING AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT BECOME MORE ENHANCED
AND WIDESPREAD, CHANCES OF RAIN COULD EXPAND AND INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION TO AS MUCH AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (40-60%) CHANCE BY THE
MIDDLE OR LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS
ANTICIPATED HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES AS WELL AS
IMPROVE HEAT RISKS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING A
MEDIUM RISK FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. HOT, GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE MORNING, BECOMING GUSTY TO
AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINTAINS MOSTLY
MODERATE TO FRESH, STRONG AT TIMES, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
(3-6 FT, OCCASIONALLY HIGHER) SEAS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK TO AS MUCH AS
A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE. MEANWHILE, WINDS AND SEAS IMPROVE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 76 91 80 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 92 72 92 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 94 75 95 79 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 97 73 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 78 84 80 / 0 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 75 89 79 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...69-HK
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