344
FXUS64 KBRO 101727
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
* A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY, AND A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
7 PM SATURDAY.
* UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE REGION
TONIGHT, AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO NEARLY ZERO FOR THE
WEEKEND.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND SEASONAL (MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE), WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LOWS FOR
MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SETTLING OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS, WHICH WILL DRY
OUT CONDITIONS AND REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LESS THAN 10
PERCENT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS ON TUESDAY WHEN A SHORT-LIVED,
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE MEXICAN COAST WILL BRING A BRIEF WAVE OF
MOISTURE THAT COULD RESULT IN A SMALL (20% OR LESS) CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND CENTRAL RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG
AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY PRECIPITATION FREE BY WEDNESDAY
AGAIN, CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND SEASONAL, WITH HIGHS
GETTING UP INTO THE LOWER 90S. AS DRIER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES
START TO SETTLE IN TONIGHT, LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE CWA, EXCEPTING COASTAL AREAS, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE LOWS IN THE 70S. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERALL NORTHEASTERLY
THIS WEEKEND, VEERING TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH HIGHER OFFSHORE WINDSPEEDS FROM A
TIGHTER (BUT RELAXING) PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
HEAVIER SURF AT AREA BEACHES, WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. IN ADDITION, A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BEING AROUND HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT AT 10:34 PM. NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED, AND WATER
COULD REACH THE DUNES AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND OTHER AREA BEACHES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY AT BRO. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE STARTING TO CLEAR, BUT A FEW COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT HAPPEN TO GO OVER AN AREA
AIRPORT. HOWEVER, BECAUSE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO DIMINISH
AND SHOULD CLEAR BY TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SCEC CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BAY AND GULF
WATERS. THOUGH WINDS ARE OVERALL WEAKENING TO MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS DUE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT, SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WILL BE MONITORED
WITH LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL IMPROVE MARINE
CONDITIONS TO MORE FAVORABLE LEVELS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 71 89 69 / 40 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 91 68 91 64 / 40 0 0 0
MCALLEN 93 70 94 67 / 50 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 93 65 93 65 / 40 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 78 85 77 / 30 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 72 87 69 / 40 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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