324
FXUS64 KBRO 241139 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
639 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE FORECAST HAS SHIFTED DRIER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED TO 10-20%.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THERE IS A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE RECENT ACTIVITY MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES HAVE WORKED TO
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. RECENT MODEL RUNS
HAVE COME IN SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY, A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION, AND LOWER PWAT
VALUES. RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY ARE NOW LIMITED TO AROUND 10-20% AND
PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED ON CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTIES. POPS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 10-15% MONDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND <10% FURTHER INLAND.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS, BRINGING STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND AN INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
THOUGH A <10% PROBABILITY OF SEA BREEZE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER, A LOW STRATUS DECK WITH IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE AT MFE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MAY WARRANT BRIEF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES.
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 91 74 90 76 / 30 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 89 70 88 72 / 20 10 10 0
MCALLEN 91 73 90 75 / 20 20 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 91 71 90 73 / 10 20 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 77 83 80 / 20 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 74 87 76 / 20 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...63-KC
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