658
FXUS64 KBRO 031145 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
545 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
* UNSEASONABLY WARM, RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.
* PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
* BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT;
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
* A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING SOME
RELIEF TO THE HEAT.
* OVERALL, WARMER THAN NORMAL, RAIN-FREE, AND AT TIMES BREEZY
CONDITONS WITH CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL AND EVEN CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF FACTORS. THE FIRST OF WHICH IS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE AREA THAT WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
BRING DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT TO THE REGION. THEN AT THE SURFACE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN MORE
WARM, MOIST AIR TO THE AREA. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL
FOR THE SUMMER TIME, BUT IT IS THE REASON THAT WE ARE SEEING ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME
LOW 90S FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE MODELS THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
THAT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 80S AND UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY. THERE IS NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT, THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS
THE NORTH FOR A SHORT DURATION OF TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
MORE BACK TO THE EAST AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY AND THEN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. WHILE THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR MOST
OF THE REGION, WITH VERY WEAK WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, THE CONCERNS
FOR FIRE WEATHER AT THIS TIME ARE LIMITED.
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS VERY TRANQUIL
ONCE AGAIN, AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW TO THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED, RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
LIMITED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT RULE OUT A
POSSIBLE ROGUE SHOWER OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
FINALLY, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AND AROUND
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG AT THIS
TIME, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PATCHY FOG COULD IMPACT ISOLATED
LOCATIONS. MOSTLY LIKELY LOCATIONS ARE ALONG THE COAST AND THE LOWER
VALLEY. MOTORISTS WILL NEED TO HEED CAUTION IN CASE OF AN LOCALLY
DENSE PATCHY FOG SHOULD IT DEVELOP. REPEAT EVENTS OF PATCHY FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOURS OR TWO SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATER TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT HRL/BRO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
WHILE THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR THE LAGUNA
MADRE AND GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONGER
WINDS DUE TO THE INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THAT COULD BRING SOME SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS TO
THE GULF WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MONDAY. AFTERWARDS, THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FAVORABLE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A LOW AMPLITUDE, YET ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 582-585 DAM RIDGE OVERHEAD
COUPLED WITH STRONG SFC BASED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING UNDER MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC WILL SUPPORT RECORD
TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY, JANUARY 2, 2026 RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
BROWNSVILLE: 87F IN 2006
HARLINGEN: 89F IN 2017
MCALLEN: 93F IN 2017
SATURDAY, JANUARY 3, 2026 RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
BROWNSVILLE: 91F IN 1982
HARLINGEN: 86F IN 2023
MCALLEN: 94F IN 1971
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 87 59 79 63 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 88 54 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 90 57 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 89 52 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 66 73 67 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 60 77 62 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...63-KC
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