645
FXUS64 KBRO 291746
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1246 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
* HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100
AND 110 DEGREES THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
HEAT RISK EACH DAY.
* GENERALLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE WEEK.
* THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATNING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
HOT AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS WEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN US.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH
DAY, WITH A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY/RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 100 AND 110
DEGREES EACH DAY, THUS NO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN GENERALLY A MODERATE HEAT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY DUE TO AN ENHANCED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TODAY EXPECT WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE MID-
VALLEY. AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX,
THUS DECREASING WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS.
AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK, A SLIGHT BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY. CHANCES REMAIN AT AROUND 15% OR LESS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
NASA/GMAO AEROSOL FORECASTS INDICATE A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST
INTRUDING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TODAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
POOR AIR QUALITY THAT IS UNHEALTHY TO SENSITIVE GROUPS.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN MODERATE AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT
BUT MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. MODERATE TO STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND CAN QUICKLY PUSH SWIMMERS UP
THE BEACH AND INTO RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION YOU CAN VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BRO/SURFMATRICES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
DECREASING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE MODERATE ON TUESDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
AN SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SURFACE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY ADVERSE
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL
NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS. AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES WINDS WILL DECREASE AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN. GENERALLY SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED WITH 5 TO 6
SECOND PERIODS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 94 80 93 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 76 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 79 99 79 97 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 81 87 / 0 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 91 78 91 / 0 0 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...68
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