507
FXUS64 KBRO 171153 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
553 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- KEEPING AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC GROWTH OF WILDFIRE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF IH-69C/US 281 WHERE
CURED FUELS INTERSECT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS, HUMIDITY AROUND 30
PERCENT, AND EXTREME DROUGHT
- MAY-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM MCALLEN
TO FALFURRIAS AND POINTS WEST.
- WEEKEND COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL AVERAGES,
WITH GUSTY NORTH WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY RETURNING A POTENTIAL
WILDFIRE SPREAD THREAT. ROUGHENING SEAS AND STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS, MAKING BOATING/FISHING DIFFICULT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GENERALLY HOLDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. IN FACT, THIS WEEK LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM ALOFT SWINGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE DROPS
SOUTH THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN. THE NBM COOKS THE
UPPER TO MID VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO THE MID 90S AND
BRINGS NEAR NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY, A SIMILAR WEEK TO LAST WEEK, ON TOP OF ABUNDANT
CURED FUELS AND ONGOING MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WILL DRIVE WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS INTO THE PEAK OF THE
DORMANT FIRE WEATHER SEASON. EXPECT RH VALUES GENERALLY BELOW
25-35 PERCENT ACROSS ALL OR PORTIONS OF ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, BROOKS,
STARR, AND HIDALGO COUNTIES EVERY AFTERNOON, DROPPING ANOTHER 5-10
PERCENT FURTHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO THE MID VALLEY, WHERE RH VALUES ARE HIGHER. EXTREME CAUTION
SHOULD BE URGED WHEN WORKING NEAR ANY OPEN FLAMES OR SPARKS INTO
LATE FEBRUARY.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. AN INVITING BEACH AND
BEAUTIFUL BEACH WEATHER WILL ALSO POSE AN INCREASED THREAT OF
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS MID TO LATE WEEK, AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PICKING UP THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE VALLEY TERMINALS, IF THE INCOMING BROWNSVILLE SOUNDING IS ANY
INDICATION. THIS HAS BROUGHT SURFACE WINDS UP OVER 5 KNOTS AND
PRECLUDED ANY FOG, BUT PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT
AT BROWNSVILLE AND HARLINGEN, SO HAVE KEPT THIS GOING THROUGH MID
MORNING.
BY 8 OR 9 AM, THE 25 KNOT WINDS ROUGHLY 1000 FEET OFF THE DECK
SHOULD BEGIN MIXING DOWN, AND EXPECT PEAK MIXING TO BEGIN AROUND
NOON (18Z). SO...HAVE GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING AND JUST
UNDER 30 KNOTS FROM NOON UNTIL SUNSET THIS EVENING UNDER LITTLE
MORE THAN PASSING CIRRUS. OVERNIGHT, ENOUGH MIXING OF 20+ KNOT
WINDS SHOULD KEEP SURFACE WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR HIGHER, PRECLUDING
ANY FOG. THAT SAID, INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TOWARD DAYBREAK, SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO
ALL TERMINALS FOR SUCH AFTER 08/09Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS DRIVING SCEC TO BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE BAY AND OFFSHORE WATERS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS INTO MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN NEXT TUESDAY WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
IT'S A REALLY TIGHT CALL AS TO WHETHER TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR BROOKS, HIDALGO, STARR, AND JIM HOGG.
BLENDED FORECAST WINDS FALL JUST SHY OF THE 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY
REQUIREMENTS WITH HUMIDITY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. HOWEVER, TRUSTED DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH
HEALTHY ~25 KNOT WINDS OFF THE DECK IN THE LOWER VALLEY WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AT LEAST 20 KNOTS TO CONTINUE UP TO 850 MB
THROUGH 3 PM - AS WELL AS A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR "DRY" MIXING
OF SAID WINDS - MAKE THE CASE FOR A DECENT PERIOD OF 15-20+ MPH
WINDS IN THESE AREAS. ZAPATA TYPICALLY FALLS SHORT, AND WOULD
THEREFORE KEEP THEM OUT OF THE STATEMENT AT THIS POINT.
GIVEN THE STEADILY WORSENING DROUGHT - NOW AT EXTREME (LEVEL 3 OF
4) IN NEARLY ALL OF THESE AREAS - THE FAVORABLE HEAT (90+
DEGREES), AND SOME SMALL FIRE STARTS ON MONDAY IN SOUTHERN
HIDALGO, WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) FOR
THESE AREAS. HUMIDITY SHOULD BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...BUT WINDS WILL ALSO BE 3-5 KNOTS HIGHER AS WELL. FUELS
ARE (STILL) PLENTY CURED IN ALL AREAS, SO THIS IS NOT AN ISSUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 82 65 84 68 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 86 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 89 65 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 92 61 91 64 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 67 76 68 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 63 83 65 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...52-GOLDSMITH
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...52-GOLDSMITH
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