159
FXUS64 KBRO 151043 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
543 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 542 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVELS 2/4
AND 3/4) ON SATURDAY IMPROVE TO MODERATE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING TO A MAJOR RISK BY NEXT
THURSDAY.
- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS (SPSS) FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108-111
F REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
WIDESPREAD INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 100S
(100-106 F) RETURN AND MOISTURE CONTENT RE-ELEVATES.
- OUTSIDE OF A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER AND
MID RGV ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
- THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS COINCIDING WITH
LOW AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BRINGS A
SUSTAINED RISK OF FIRE WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
A STRONG 597+ DAM HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SLOWLY
SHIFTS WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND
BEGINS TO WEAKEN NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL MAINTAINS ELEVATED HEIGHTS
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ASIDE FROM
A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGING A
LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MID
RGV FROM POTENTIAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST, TRANSITIONING SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY, GUSTING UP TO
15-25+ MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO POSSIBLY NEXT
TUESDAY. ALTOGETHER, THIS SET UP IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT WIDESPREAD
INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 100S WESTWARD TO THE I-69
E CORRIDOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS IMPROVE RISKS OF
HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES FROM MODERATE TO MAJOR ON SATURDAY TO
MAINLY MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105-111 F ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL.
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN
AND ENHANCE GUSTS BACK TO AROUND 25-35+ MPH AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND SURFACE HEIGHTS
LOWER OVER THE SIERRA MADRE LOWER AGAIN. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 100S
(AROUND 100-106 F, HIGHEST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS) TO RETURN
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WORSEN RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS BACK
TO MOSTLY MAJOR BY NEXT THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SPSS, FOR LOCATIONS
EXPECTING HEAT INDICES OF 108-111 F, REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PREVAIL AS WELL, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WHEN 20-FOOT WINDS OF AROUND 10-15+ MPH, GUSTING
TO 20-30+ MPH, COINCIDE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMIZING AROUND
25-50 PERCENT, DRIEST FURTHEST WEST/NORTHWEST AND VICE VERSA.
A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VFR WILL BE IN EFFECT WITH LIMITED CLOUDINESS AND BREEZY WINDS
WITH STRONGER GUSTS TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH BEGINNING
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME
GENTLE TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE MODERATE SEAS (3-5 FT)
PERSIST, EASING TO SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4 FT) BY SUNDAY MORNING.
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS,
WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF SCEC, RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AND A LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-40%) CHANCE NEXT MONDAY, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 96 81 97 80 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 99 77 99 76 / 0 0 10 0
MCALLEN 103 81 103 80 / 0 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 103 78 102 78 / 0 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 89 81 / 10 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 79 95 79 / 0 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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