145
FXUS64 KBRO 162235
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
535 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 535 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS, COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND MULTIPLE WEATHER HAZARDS (MARINE, BEACH,
FIRE, AND WIND) ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE WEEKEND.
- NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO GUST AS HIGH AS 45
MPH TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS THE VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION HAS PROMPTED NUMEROUS WEATHER
HAZARDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY
INTO SUNDAY. THESE HAZARDS INCLUDE: A RED FLAG WARNING, WIND
ADVISORIES, GALE WARNING, HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK, COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY, AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS COULD GUST HIGH AS 45
MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
BROOKS, KENEDY, WILLACY, CAMERON, AND HIDALGO COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
SATURDAY, AND UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
THE DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH WINDS
HAS LEAD TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM 1
PM TODAY UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT OR ANOTHER
RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY AS RH VALUES DROP EVEN
MORE ON TOP OF STILL BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
THE HIGH WINDS ALSO WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WITH
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, COASTAL FOOD ADVISORY AND A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IN IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH
VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F
DEGREES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S BY THE THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN MIDWEEK ALONG THE COAST A TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE. CHANCES REMAIN LOW (20-30%).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY....VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
00Z TAF PERIOD WITH WINDY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
THROUGH TONIGHT, IT WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 15-22
KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35-40 KTS. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON, THOUGH STILL REMAINING
BREEZY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-25
KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE AND THE GULF WATERS UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY. EXPECT SEAS
OF 11-16 FT AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40KTS. BY SUNDAY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 61 74 62 79 / 10 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 58 75 58 80 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 60 76 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 58 75 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 74 69 77 / 10 10 10 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 74 62 79 / 10 10 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ248>255-353.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ250-251-253>255-353.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ351-354-355-451-454-
455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-150-155-
170-175.
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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