369
FXUS64 KBRO 011902
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
102 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1259 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- AFTER THE RECENT COOL-DOWN, AN AVERAGE TO ABOVE-AVERAGE WEEK AHEAD,
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT
ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, MAINLY AT
NIGHT/MORNING
- PERIODIC DIFFICULT BOATING CONDITIONS, MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEHIND IT.
- OVERALL DRYNESS CONTINUES WITH POTENTIAL INCREASE IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) COVERAGE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEK, ANY
ISOLATED LIGHT STEAMER SHOWERS ALONG/NEAR IH-69/US 77 MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY, AND PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY, WILL HAVE NO IMPACT
- MODERATE RIP AND SOUTH-TO-NORTH LONGSHORE CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY,
BECOMING HIGH INTENSITY POST-FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SURF TEMPERATURES REMAINING CHILLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
AFTER A TEN-DAY PERIOD OF STEEPER "ROLLER-COASTER" TEMPERATURES, A
LESS DRAMATIC DAY-BY-DAY RISE AND FALL WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.
ON THE WHOLE, TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW TICKS ABOVE NORMAL FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY, MAINLY DRIVEN BY MILD TO WARM
AFTERNOONS ON MOST DAYS. IN ADDITION, ANY RAIN WILL BE VERY
LIGHT/SPRINKLY AND FAVORING THE COASTAL COUNTIES, EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND PERHAPS JUST BEHIND THE MID-WEEK COLD FRONT. THE MAIN REASON
FOR THIS RELATIVELY "NORMAL" FORECAST TO BEGIN FEBRUARY? FIRST, FLAT
WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A MINI-500 MB RIDGE PASSING
THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY; SECOND, AS MENTIONED SATURDAY, THE
REGION SEES ONLY A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE NEXT IN SERIES OF
DEEPENING EASTERN U.S. 500 MB TROUGHS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER MINI-RIDGE ARRIVES TO CLOSE THE WEEK - THEN SETS UP
SHOP FOR A FEW DAYS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: THE TRANSITION FROM THE COOL/DRY
CONDITIONS OF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING HAS BEGUN, WITH AREAS OF
STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS DEVELOPING/MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND, WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW, HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S WHILE DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY RISE. THAT TREND COMPLETES OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS FOR MOST AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS EASING TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL SLOW THE FALL OF
TEMPERATURES WITH MORNING LOWS AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY
(MID TO UPPER 50S, EXCEPT UPPER 40S-AROUND 50 RANCHLANDS).
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW MONDAY BRINGS FURTHER RISES IN TEMPERATURE
AND DEWPOINT, BUT LOWERING CEILINGS WILL HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO A SHADE ABOVE AVERAGE (MID 70S).
PATTERN IS ALSO SET UP FOR LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS
ALONG/NEAR THE IH-69E/US 77 CORRIDOR, BUT OTHER THAN A BRIEF GROUND-
WETTING, NO IMPACT. THE TRANSITION TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE PILLOW
COMPLETED OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHEAST BREEZE AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD UP WELL INTO
THE 60S. THE CLOUDS BREAK/DISSIPATE IN SLIGHTLY WEAKER SOUTHERLY
FLOW TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES SHOOTING UP INTO THE 80S FOR MOST
AREAS, FOR A ~10 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE DAY ON THE WHOLE. THE NEXT
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS AND AROUND
DAYBREAK ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING: NORTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP WEDNESDAY
AND WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE MIXED LAYERS OF CLOUDS IN ALL AREAS...WITH
LOWEST DECKS NEAR THE COAST IN NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. THE DEPTH AND
DURATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS COULD PRESENT SOME TEMPERATURE
CHALLENGES, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO STRUGGLE OUT OF THE
60S. FARTHER WEST, ENOUGH SUNSHINE MIXING THROUGH HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PUSH HIGHS TOWARD OR JUST ABOVE 70.
DRY AIR CLEARS OUT THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
A RETURN TO CHILLY BUT FRESH AIR AND TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.
FULL SUNSHINE RETURNS THURSDAY WITH LIGHTER NORTH WINDS MAKING FOR A
FANTASTIC EARLY FEBRUARY DAY - STILL A TOUCH COOL, BUT MITIGATED BY
THE WARMING SUN (WHICH IS ALSO INCREASING IN ANGLE EVERY DAY). THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER REFRESHINGLY COOL START FRIDAY. WITH
CLEAR CALM CONDITIONS, WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS COULD DROP BACK INTO
THE 30S...BUT AIR MASS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH TO IMPLY A FREEZE/FROST,
EVEN HERE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A PERFECT "CHAMBER OF COMMERCE" FRIDAY WITH A
NICE WARMUP UNDER LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND PLEASANT HUMIDITY, BEFORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE
AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL BY AFTERNOON. FURTHER
WARMING ARRIVES SUNDAY - WITH A CONTINUATION OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND A LITTLE BE MORE HUMIDITY BUT STILL WELL WITHIN COMFORT AS THE
"VALLEY WIND MACHINE" TAKES TEMPORARY HOLD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
AS EXPECTED, THE TRANSITION FROM THE CHILLY AIRMASS TO A MODERATED
ONE HAS BEGUN, WITH LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING/BRINGING
STRATOCUMULUE/ALTOCUMULUS (STILL WELL IN VFR RANGE) THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS PREVAILING. AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT OFF THE
DECK OVERNIGHT, TRANSPORT OF AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL HELP
LOWER CEILINGS NEAR/JUST AFTER DAYBREAK, BUT STILL LOOKS TO HOLD
JUST ABOVE THE VFR LINE (3500 FEET) THROUGH THE LATE MORNING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RISE BY 15/16Z AND COULD RISE MORE
SHARPLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW (18Z/MONDAY) BUT WILL
LEAVE THE WIND SPEED AND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT FORECASTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE BY
MONDAY AS GRADIENT PICKS UP...BUT ROBUST MARINE LAYER OVER THE NOW-
COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD KEEP SPEEDS DOWN IN THE 10-15 KNOT
RANGE. THIS CHANGES WITH THE OVERNIGHT REVERSAL, ESPECIALLY BEYOND
20 NM WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT HIGHER. MAY NEED A
SHORT-FUSED ADVISORY TO COVER THE WINDS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND DECREASING GRADIENT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY: GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS PICKS UP
FAIRLY NICELY BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT, AND WHILE TEMPERATURES
ADVECTION (COLD) IS MODEST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST THE
OUTER LEG (WHERE ADDITIONAL OVERTURNING POSSIBLE OVER ~70 DEGREE
SST). DEFAULT BLENDS FOR THE WATERS DID NOT HANDLE WELL, SO MATCHED
UP WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS NORTH AND SOUTH, AND RAISED SEAS BY A FOOT
AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY SETTLES WINDS AND SEAS, MAKING FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND IDEAL CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOATERS/FISHERS WAITING FOR FANTASTIC WIND/WAVE/WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL NOT HAVE TO WAIT ANY LONGER.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...JANUARY HAS FINISHED, AND THE TOPSY-TURVY
NATURE OF THE FINAL WEEK WAS ENOUGH TO PULL TOP FIVE (FOR MOST)
WARMEST RANKS THROUGH THE 24TH DOWN A FEW PEGS. THAT SAID, A
SEVERAL DAY WINDOW OF 15-25 DEGREE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WAS
NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER RANKINGS BELOW THE TOP 25% (QUARTILE) - AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH DECEMBER TO TAKE A LOOK AT METEOROLOGICAL (DEC-FEB)
WINTER SO FAR, MOSTG LOCATIONS ARE IN THE TOP-FIFTEEN WARMEST (TOP
DECILE, OR 10%, FOR MOST) - WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL
DECEMBER-FEBRUARY FORECAST EXPECTATIONS.
HERE ARE SELECT RANKINGS FOR JANUARY 2026, AND DECEMBER 2025-JANUARY
2026:
JANUARY 2026
LOCATION (SINCE) AVG. TEMP (WARMEST RANK) WARMEST (YEAR)
BROWNSVILLE (1878) 64.5 (27TH) 69.2 (1890)
HARLINGEN (1912) 61.8 (36TH) 70.2 (2023)
MCALLEN (1942) 64.2 (18TH) 70.4 (1950)
RIO GRANDE CITY (1928/FULL) 58.1 (51ST) 69.2 (1950)
RAYMONDVILLE (1913) 62.0 (29TH) 68.6 (1952)
WESLACO (1915) 61.7 (37TH) 71.5 (1950)
PORT MANSFIELD (1958) 62.0 (10TH) 65.3 (2000)
DECEMBER 2025-JANUARY 2026 (ENDING YEAR SHOWN IN "SINCE"
LOCATION (SINCE) AVG. TEMP (WARMEST RANK) WARMEST (YEAR)
BROWNSVILLE (1879) 66.7 (8TH) 70.2 (1890)
HARLINGEN (1913) 64.0 (15TH) 67.6 (1950)
MCALLEN (1943) 66.5 (5TH) 68.3 (1950)
RIO GRANDE CITY (1929/FULL) 62.0 (15TH) 66.8 (1950)
RAYMONDVILLE (1914) 63.7 (11TH) 67.8 (1952)
WESLACO (1915) 63.8 (15TH) 69.3 (1950)
PORT MANSFIELD (1959) 63.6 (4TH) 64.0 (1971)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 55 74 64 78 / 0 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 50 75 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 55 77 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 52 78 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 69 64 72 / 0 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 54 73 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52-GOLDSMITH
LONG TERM....52-GOLDSMITH
AVIATION...52-GOLDSMITH
CLIMATE...52-GOLDSMITH
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