560
FXUS64 KBRO 200531 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1231 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* UNSEASONABLY WARM AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
* DAY-TO-DAY OR NEAR DAY-TO-DAY ELEVATED WILDFIRE WEATHER THREAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
* A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) IS IN EFFECT FOR BROOKS, HIDALGO,
INLAND KENEDY, INLAND WILLACY, AND INLAND CAMERON COUNTIES FROM 1-
7 PM CDT FRIDAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. DRIVING OUR WEATHER PATTERN IS A BEHEMOTH 594+ DAM SONORAN
HEAT DOME, WHICH IS RESULTING IN A MAJOR EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS HEAT RIDGE,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL STIFLE ANY RAIN CHANCES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S EACH
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ON THE TABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES, AN ONGOING
DROUGHT, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN DAY-TO-DAY
OR NEAR DAY-TO-DAY ELEVATED FIRE RISKS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER,
BY THE LATE MORNING, WINDS SHOULD START TO BECOME MORE GUSTY, WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MOVING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, THE WINDS SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AGAIN ALLOWING LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL. WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, IT IS
POSSIBLE TO GET SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH LOW
TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BROOKS, HIDALGO, INLAND KENEDY, INLAND
WILLACY, AND INLAND CAMERON COUNTIES FROM 1-7 PM CDT FRIDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 20-FT WINDS 15-20 MPH GUSTING AS HIGH AS
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
20-40%. THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES, AND AN ONGOING DROUGHT RANGING
BETWEEN D2 (SEVERE DROUGHT) TO D4 (EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT) WILL
RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRES ON FRIDAY.
THE TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE HAS OUTLOOKED MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
UNDER A "HIGH RISK" FOR WILDFIRE DANGER ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC) WILL BE ELEVATED RANGING BETWEEN 75-
95%. ADDITIONAL FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS MANY BE NEEDED IN THE DAYS
AHEAD! WE CONTINUE TO URGE EVERYONE TO PRACTICE FIRE SAFETY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 85 65 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 90 61 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 92 65 95 65 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 92 60 95 61 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 67 77 68 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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