429
FXUS64 KBRO 051717
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1217 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
* DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE
TO UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
* MODERATE HEAT RISK RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
LOW CHANCES (30% OR LESS) OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE DAILY SEABREEZE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. THE HIGHER CHANCES OF
RAIN ARE GENERALLY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND CHANCES OF RAIN
DECREASE FURTHER INLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY BY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR MORE RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS TO SET
UP. HOWEVER, THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO IS OUT OF
THE QUESTION.
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH THE DAY TIME
HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME LEVEL OF SUPPORT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE RANGE OF 1.8 TO 2.5
INCHES SHOWING THAT THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT,
THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVEN
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SINCE THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN ACTUAL FORCING
IN THE ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME.
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RETURN OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THE
FOCUS OF THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE POTENTIAL HEAT RELATED
ISSUES. AS THE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, THAT MEANS THAT THE FLOW
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE, BUT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRAP THAT
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THUS THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER
NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, THE HEAT INDICES DO MOSTLY STAY IN THE
RANGE OF 105 TO 108 AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL MEAN THAT
THERE IS A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK FOR THE REGION NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ALONG WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. WHILE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN
THE ENVIRONMENT, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. HOWEVER, THE CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL DECREASE NEXT WEEK WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 90 81 90 / 20 10 20 20
HARLINGEN 76 90 77 91 / 20 10 10 20
MCALLEN 78 92 79 92 / 30 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 93 77 94 / 30 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 86 83 86 / 20 10 20 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 89 80 89 / 20 10 10 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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