450
FXUS64 KBRO 210549 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF MOVING INLAND WILL
BRING LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY EAST OF
US-281 TODAY, AND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THURSDAY.
- NARROW BEACHES AROUND HIGH TIDE ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
- OVERALL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEEP MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH COASTAL TROUGHING OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST, BRINGING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE COAST. AS MOISTURE ENCROACHES WESTWARD, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER COVERAGE
SHOULD DIMINISH AS IT TRAVELS INLAND, WITH MODERATE POPS (40-70%)
FOCUSED EAST OF US-281, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE WORKING THEIR WAY INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A HALF AN
INCH, BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE UNDER
HEAVIER SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BAR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOWERS, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO WILL RETURN FAIR WEATHER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG-PERIOD SWELL AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP LOCAL BEACHES
NARROW. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDE.
CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS WATER LEVELS BELOW MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY AFTERNOON AT BRO AND
HRL. CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING,
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
LINGERING MODERATE SEAS WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT SCEC CONDITIONS
ON THE GULF TODAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCE OF
RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH INTERACTS
WITH DEEP MOISTURE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS
SEAS DECREASE TO SLIGHT. GENTLE TO FRESH ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND, CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE YET
AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 86 73 84 68 / 60 20 30 0
HARLINGEN 86 71 84 66 / 40 20 30 0
MCALLEN 90 72 88 67 / 20 20 40 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 90 70 88 65 / 0 10 50 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 74 79 73 / 60 40 20 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 71 81 66 / 50 40 20 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...60-BE
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