422
FXUS64 KBRO 241730
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-25%) CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES (45-65%) MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
- PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ELEVATED
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO NARROW BEACHES DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF GRADUALLY SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTH, MAINTAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND BRINGING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH INCREASED
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
END OF OCTOBER. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE BY TODAY
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, CURRENTLY
45-65 PERCENT, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US-281. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEA BREEZE AND STREAMING SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DRYING OUT INTO HALLOWEEN.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF LIKELY INCREASES THE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS NEXT WEEK AND MAY COMBINE WITH INCREASING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO NARROW BEACHES DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS
A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY CONVECTION NEAR RGV AERODROMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING SWELL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH AFTERNOON WINDS
OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS. A HIGHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, IMPROVING INTO
HALLOWEEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 85 70 86 / 0 10 0 10
HARLINGEN 70 86 67 86 / 0 10 0 10
MCALLEN 72 88 69 90 / 0 20 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 70 88 66 89 / 10 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 80 73 80 / 0 10 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 83 69 83 / 0 10 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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