640
FXUS64 KBRO 271055 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 554 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- VERY HOT, RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES AND RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH AREAS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF
4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
- WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS, AND VERY HIGH EVAPORATION RATES.
- THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS, LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES,
AND HOT TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISKS
THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- LOW (30% OR LESS) CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF
IH-69C/US-281.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
A BROAD AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 594-598 DAM SUB-TROPICAL HEAT DOME,
THAT'S RESULTING IN A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD HOTTER THAN NORMAL,
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEATING INCLUDING OVER HARLINGEN AND
BROWNSVILLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HEAT DOME REMAINS PARKED OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT CLIMATOLOGICALLY WE ARE IN THE HOTTEST PART OF
THE YEAR (I.E. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MCALLEN IS 100F DEGREES)
AND YET FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO BE 4-8F DEGREES
HOTTER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS EVEN FOR THE RGV'S STANDARDS IN THE DAYS
AHEAD. THAT SAID, WIDESPREAD MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) WITH AREAS OF
EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN VERY STRONG EVAPORATION RATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A CONTINUATION OF WORSENING OR EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THIS STRETCH. A
COUPLE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CHANCES
HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT STILL REMAIN LOW RANGING
BETWEEN 20-30% WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING ALONG AND EAST OF IH-
69C/US-281. THIS CERTAINLY IS SOMETHING THAT NEEDS MONITORING IN THE
COMING DAYS AS WE CAN CERTAINLY USE THE RAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
FAVORABLE FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WITH BREEZY DAYTIME
GUSTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK WITH LOW SEAS (1 TO 2 FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS) AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
A MASSIVE AND STRONG 594-598 DAM HEAT DOME SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
RECORD TO NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 4-8F DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
BELOW IS A LIST OF RECORD HIGHS FROM AUGUST 27-28:
THURSDAY AUGUST 27TH, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 102F IN 2023
HARLINGEN: 104F IN 1948
MCALLEN: 105F IN 2018
FRIDAY AUGUST 28TH, 2026
BROWNSVILLE: 106F IN 2023
HARLINGEN: 106F IN 2011
MCALLEN: 107F IN 2023
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 99 80 98 80 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 102 76 101 76 / 0 0 10 0
MCALLEN 104 80 104 80 / 0 0 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 104 78 104 78 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 89 81 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 78 96 78 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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