558
FXUS64 KBRO 170330
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1030 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- CONDITIONS REMAIN HOT AND MOSTLY DRY, EXCEPT FOR A LOW (15-25%)
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOWER AND MID
RGV ON MONDAY.
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) IS POSSIBLE FOR THE INLAND
PORTIONS OF CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES ON MONDAY FOR
HEAT INDICES OF 108-111 F.
- A MOSTLY MODERATE RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 2/4) ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD ESCALATE TO A MOSTLY MAJOR RISK
(LEVEL 3/4) BY THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SPSS ARE LIKELY AND HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
- THE COMBINATION OF LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY COINCIDING
WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS LEADS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT BECOMES
A LOW RISK MORNING MORNING, PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
INCREASING LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH, ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING A LOW (15-25%) CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MID RGV TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN HIDALGO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTS OF 30+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
MAY HELP REDUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPS FOR HEAT INDICES OF
108-111 F, THOUGH ONE MAY STILL BE ISSUED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING FOR CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES, DEPENDING
ON TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE TRENDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE ANTICIPATED
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S ALONG/EAST US-281, WHILE AREAS FURTHER
WEST RISE TO THE LOW/MID 100S, WARMEST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
A MAINLY MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (HEAT RISK) IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS SINKING AIR BEHIND
THE TROUGH LEADS TO MUCH DRIER MOISTURE CONTENT, WITH HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 100-110 F OR A FEW DEGREES WARMER. DRIER
AIR ON TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO ALLOW HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 100S TO PUSH
EASTWARD TO THE I-69 E CORRIDOR.
OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REGAINS
CONTROL AS IT SHIFTS WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN TEXAS TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND 4 CORNERS REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE
POSSIBLY RE-EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND, MAINTAINING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND CAUSING DRY CONDITIONS
TO RESUME BY TUESDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE DAILY
SEABREEZE CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT LATER IN THE WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RUNNING AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
WITH GUSTS TO 20-30+ MPH POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY, IN TURN SPREADING
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 100S TO NEARLY ALL INLAND LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE RESULTING SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
CONTENT IS PROGGED TO DETERIORATE HEAT RISKS FROM MODERATE TO
MAJOR ON WEDNESDAY TO MOSTLY MAJOR, WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME IN
URBAN AREAS, BY THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SPSS ARE LIKELY AND HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.
LASTLY, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BE BORDERLINE, OR BENEATH, FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA, BREEZY CONDITIONS COINCIDING WITH LOWER
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CONTINUE A RISK OF
FIRE WEATHER, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND CAUTION IS
ADVISED WHEN HANDLING OUTDOOR FLAMES.
A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT BECOMES A LOW
RISK MONDAY MORNING, PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
SOMEWHAT BREEZY EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS (10-15 KT,
GUSTING TO 20-23 KT) THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP TO
NEAR 10+ KT, GUSTING TO 15-20+ KT, BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KHRL AND KMFE, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSITION TO
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS, WITH PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION, BY WEDNESDAY. SEAS REMAIN SLIGHT TO MODERATE,
BUILDING FROM 1-3 FT TO 2-4 FT BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. ASIDE FROM A
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 79 96 79 97 / 0 20 0 10
HARLINGEN 76 98 76 100 / 0 20 0 10
MCALLEN 80 101 79 102 / 0 20 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 102 77 103 / 0 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 89 80 89 / 0 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 94 78 96 / 0 10 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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