367
FXUS64 KBRO 222322 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
622 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO AROUND 60% THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD THROUGH THE FORECAST, WITH
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK THURSDAY AND MODERATE HEAT RISK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD, GUIDANCE IS
INCREASINGLY IN AGREEMENT THAT A BULK OF THE CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 60%
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF JIM HOGG, BROOKS,
HIDALGO AND KENEDY COUNTIES THURSDAY.
EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK LIKELY CONTINUING THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE HEAT RISK FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS AT THIS TIME,
RANGING FROM AROUND 7 KNOTS AT KMFE AND AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT KBRO AND KHRL. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO BECOME GENTLE OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOLLOWING SUNSET THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY (LESS THAN 30%) CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW MORNING,
SLIGHTLY INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS
TIME AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CHANCES OF RAIN TO INCREASE
AND SHIFT TO AN EARLIER START TIME, PERHAPS BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON, AS OPPOSED TO LATER IN THE EVENING, BEYOND THE
00Z TAF TIMEFRAME. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WELL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST, POSSIBLY
REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ALONG THE
LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS. GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME. THE BULK OF THE SWELL FROM THE STORM IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER IF THE TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH, INCREASED SEAS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 96 80 96 / 0 20 20 0
HARLINGEN 77 99 78 99 / 0 20 50 0
MCALLEN 80 103 80 101 / 0 20 50 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 80 105 79 101 / 0 20 60 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 88 81 88 / 0 30 30 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 95 79 94 / 0 30 30 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-254-255.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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