744
FXUS64 KBRO 031129 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
629 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
* COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A QUICK
WARMUP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, ELEVATING HEAT RISK.
* A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED LATE WEEK BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NUDGES FURTHER NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SET UP A
ROLLER COASTER WEEK OF TEMPERATURES IN EARLY MAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. EXPECT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY, A LITTLE
WARMER WITH A BREEZE ON MONDAY, THEN BREEZY TO WINDY AND HOT FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RECORD OR NEAR-RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW
BRINGING MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SOME
POTENTIALLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
AS FOR HAZARDS, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY, WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED IF OBSERVATIONS
EXCEED CURRENT GUIDANCE LATE TONIGHT. OUR ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS
TOWARDS HEAT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF
4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK EXPECTED. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY, WE WILL MONITOR THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
FOR ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. EARLY MODEL RUNS SHOW PLENTY OF
CAPE AND SHEAR, WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND PWAT VALUES WELL OVER
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BECOME EASTERLY
BY MID MORNING AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
BUOY 42020 HAS GONE ADRIFT, SO WILL RELY HEAVILY INTO NWPS AND
WAVE HEIGHT GUIDANCE, DROPPING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH SCEC TO SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BAY AND
NEARSHORE WATERS AND SCEC CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM GRADUALLY WORKS SOUTH MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 82 69 85 74 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 82 64 87 71 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 84 67 88 74 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 84 65 89 72 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 73 80 76 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 68 84 73 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...60-BE
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