507
FXUS64 KBRO 050323
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1023 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AS WELL AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF
AROUND 100-110 F CONTINUE.
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS (GUSTS TO 25-30+ MPH) RETURN LATER IN THE
WEEK, BUILDING MOISTURE CONTENT AND INCREASING HEAT RISKS FROM
MINOR AND MODERATE (LEVELS 1 AND 2 OF 4) TO MAINLY MODERATE BY
THURSDAY.
- CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG THE SEABREEZE COULD INCREASE TO A LOW
(15-30%) CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING FRIDAY.
- A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
MOST OF THE UPCOMING 7 DAY FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME AS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY ANTICIPATED TO RISE INTO MOSTLY THE MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST AND UPPER 90S INLAND THOUGH PEAKING IN THE LOWER 100S IN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER RGV. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE RANGING AROUND 100-110 F. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
TO THE UPPER 70S AS WELL AS LOWER 80S ACROSS COASTAL AND ISLAND
CAMERON COUNTY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WANES A BIT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. YET, THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES SHOULD
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, WEAKENING ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
(GUSTING TO 15-25 MPH) WILL LIKELY REDUCE HEAT RISKS FROM MAINLY
MODERATE ON SUNDAY TO MINOR AND MODERATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS AND RGV, RESPECTIVELY, MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY THE MIDDLE OR LATER PART OF THE WEEK, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN GUSTS OF 25-30+ MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, PUMPING
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE CONTENT INLAND FROM A POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, LEADING TO MAINLY MODERATE HEAT RISKS BY
THURSDAY. THIS COULD ALSO RESULT IN A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE BOUNDARY, BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A SIDE NOTE, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES A MEDIUM CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IN THEIR 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK AS WELL A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE IN THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
(INTO THE MIDDLE OF JULY).
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH SUNSET AND INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS TONIGHT, THOUGH
COULD REMAIN ELEVATED AT KMFE OVERNIGHT (10-15 KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KNOTS). AMENDMENTS FOR WIND ARE STILL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST, WITH PARTLY TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS SKIES TONIGHT BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT TOMORROW
MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15
KNOTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS, BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE, FRESH AT TIMES, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO MODERATE TO FRESH,
WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
BY WEDNESDAY AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SLIGHT TO MODERATE
(1-3 FT) SEAS BECOME MODERATE (2-4 FT) BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS WELL. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST, POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO
A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE OVER THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 95 80 95 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 78 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 80 101 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 79 102 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 10 10 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 78 92 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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