342
FXUS64 KBRO 210001 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
601 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
* FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT, WITH A FREEZE WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. A FREEZE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL, AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING.
* COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TRANSITION TO A
WINTRY MIX TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, STARTING IN THE
RANCHLANDS AND MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
TONIGHT, WITH INLAND CAMERON COUNTY UNDER A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.
* A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND HIDALGO
COUNTY TONIGHT. ELEVATED WINDS THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL
CAUSE ELEVATED WIND CHILL VALUES, AND AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL.
* HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG AREA BEACHES, AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
DANGEROUS COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT, TOMORROW, AND TOMORROW NIGHT
DUE TO THE PRESENCE AND DEEPENING OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS, FUNNELING SIBERIAN AIR INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TONIGHT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER 20S
IN THE UPPER RANCHLANDS TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY IN THE MID 30S THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S DUE TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR SURGE.
IN ADDITION, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST,
WHICH IS BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE AREA, WITH 80-90% PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY
START OUT AS COLD DRIZZLY RAIN, BUT AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO BE
PUSHED SOUTH FROM THE EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE, THIS PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET/SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE REGION, AND THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS ARE
ALREADY STARTING TO EXPERIENCE THIS TRANSITION. THESE AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE FIRST,
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET. AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
TRANSITIONING PRIMARILY INTO SLEET.
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP, THIS TRANSITION FROM COLD RAIN TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET WILL SPREAD FROM THE RANCHLANDS FURTHER EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS WILL POSE
HAZARDS ON ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW
MORNING, WHERE ROADWAYS COULD BECOME ICED, PARTICULARLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND ANY ROAD
HAZARDS SHOULD DISAPPEAR IN TIME FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE AS
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE DRY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO TEXAS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
POSTED AS WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ALONG WITH HIDALGO COUNTY. THIS IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIR TOMORROW EVENING, THE PREVAILING ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION WITH THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS COLD SNAP FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THROUGHOUT MOST OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40 OVER THE LOWER RGV TO
SPI. A HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR TOMORROW NIGHT.
KEEP PETS INSIDE, DRIP PIPES, COVER PLANTS, AND WEAR PROTECTIVE
CLOTHING IF GOING OUTSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.
THE HIGH WINDS AND SURF WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ON AREA
BEACHES, WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN PLACE AT AREA BEACHES. SURF WILL BE HIGHEST OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS WE EXPERIENCE GALE FORCED WINDS OFFSHORE. DUE TO
COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR MASS SEA
TURTLE COLD STUNNING IN THE AREA AS WELL. MOTORISTS CROSSING COASTAL
BRIDGES WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PELICANS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
-A WARMING TREND BEGINS AFTER WEDNESDAY.
MISERABLE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD,UNLESS YOU LIKE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY COLD, WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND SUNRISE BEING IN THE MID 20S THROUGHOUT MOST THE THE REGION,
WITH A FEW 30S ALONG THE COAST. FREEZE WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL UPGRADED WARNINGS ON TUESDAY.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SLOWLY TO
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S, BUT SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS COULD STILL
SEE A A LIGHT FREEZE. WILL MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL FREEZE
WATCHES/WARNINGS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 50S THURSDAY THEN START TO WARM
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD
REACH THE 60S AND 70S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARM, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S THROUGHOUT DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH THE
WARM WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER
60S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLING TO THE
UPPER 50S BY MONDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE, BUT A SMALL (20-30%) CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS RETURNS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE, THOUGH RAINFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WILL DRY, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
COURTESY OF LOW CLOUDS, LIGHT PRECIPITATION, AND A BREEZY TO WINDY
FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
(TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT)...WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO DANGEROUS LEVELS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT. AFTER
09Z, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE BAY AND THE GULF WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING, WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 0Z
TOMORROW EVENING. DURING THIS TIME, NORTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS
COULD OCCUR OVER THE GULF WATERS, WITH SEA HEIGHTS UP TO 20 FEET.
THE BAY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY ROUGH AS WELL. TOMORROW NIGHT, WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, BUT SEAS WILL STILL BE
ROUGH ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY, CAUSING MARINE
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIR UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING, WHEN WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS
SLIGHTLY PICK UP INTO SATURDAY, WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SHIFT TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 33 36 29 55 / 90 80 0 0
HARLINGEN 31 36 24 55 / 90 80 0 0
MCALLEN 31 38 27 55 / 90 60 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 30 39 22 53 / 90 50 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 45 46 39 55 / 90 90 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 37 38 29 55 / 90 80 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ248>250.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
TXZ248>255-351-353>355.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ248>255-351-
353>355.
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ248>255-351-353>355.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ251-253-254-
351-353-354.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
TXZ251>254-353.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ255.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ255-355-451-
454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR GMZ130-132-135.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
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