393
FXUS64 KBRO 101141 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
641 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND.
COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS SURF, LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS, AND ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
BEACHES AND GULF WATERS.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
- MOSTLY MINOR RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) BECOME
MODERATE (LEVEL 2/4) BY NEXT MONDAY AS DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS COASTAL IMPACTS FROM
LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ISAIAS. ELEVATED
SURF WITH 4 TO 7 FOOT WAVES AT LOCAL BEACHES MAINTAINS A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE RUNUP ALONG WITH THE NEW
MOON WILL SUPPORT COASTAL FLOODING, WITH HIGHEST WATER LEVELS NEAR
HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN LOW THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DAILY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BRINGING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS WEEKEND, AND MID TO UPPER 90S NEXT WEEK. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-110 DEGF RANGE
BEGINNING MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CALM
WINDS THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
ELEVATED SEAS AND LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER
THIS WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY
FOR THE GULF WATERS WILL LIKELY BECOME SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES STAY LOW (GENERALLY 15% OR LESS) THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK MAY ONCE AGAIN
DETERIORATE CONDITIONS AND INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 91 78 91 79 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 93 74 93 75 / 0 0 10 0
MCALLEN 95 77 95 78 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 93 74 93 76 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 87 82 / 10 0 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 77 89 78 / 0 0 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....69
AVIATION...60-BE
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