519
FXUS64 KBRO 171121 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
621 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- FLOOD RISK HAS ALSO DECREASED, BUT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT (ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ALREADY
RECEIVED LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS).
- HEAT RISK WILL BE A CONCERN STARTING WEDNESDAY, WITH THE WORST
DAYS BEING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT RAINFALL HAS
MOVED OFF THE COAST AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
COMBINATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO 110-115 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALONG THE COAST,
REQUIRING A HEAT ADVISORY. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST
DAY, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 116-124 DEGREES
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS., LIKELY REQUIRING AND EXTREME HEAT
WARNING. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 11-118
DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES OR EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS LIKELY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS
OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING LOW (15-30%) RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
BACKING WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.
WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OR SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 96 83 97 84 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 96 80 98 81 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 97 81 101 83 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 97 79 103 81 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 91 85 91 85 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 82 96 83 / 10 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ251>255-351-353>355.
GM...NONE.
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