383
FXUS64 KBRO 242355 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
655 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LOW TO MODERATE
CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MOST OF THE
REGION IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY LATE WEEK.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT TO
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE STABLE. WITH THAT SAID SPC STILL HAS US UNDER A GENERAL RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES RANGE FROM 10 TO 25% TODAY WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES IN KENEDY, WILLACY, CAMERON, AND HIDALGO COUNTIES. WHILE
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME, SOME CAMS DO
HAVE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION, WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. MAIN THREATS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. PWAT VALUES ON THE THIS MORNINGS
BRO SOUNDING WERE AT 1.91 INCHES, STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LOCALIZED
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MONDAY RAIN
CHANCES FALL TO 15% OR LESS.
TUESDAY, RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN RETURN. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ZAPATA, JIM
HOGG, BROOKS, WILLACY, STAR AND HIDALGO COUNTIES UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
WE STILL WILL SEE AND INCREASED CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
KENEDY, WILLACY, BROOKS, CAMERON, HIDALGO, AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES.
WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THERE WILL
BE A LOW CHANCE SEA BREEZE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS WEEK WITH ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS (EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE COAST) WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.
WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE AREA BEACHES
INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT, WITH
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURNING AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THE WATERS OFF THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THIS WEEK. COULD SEE SOME CAUTION CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
WITH 6 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 91 75 89 76 / 20 10 20 0
HARLINGEN 89 71 88 72 / 20 10 10 0
MCALLEN 91 73 90 75 / 20 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 91 71 91 73 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 78 83 79 / 10 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 75 86 75 / 10 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...60-BE
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