353
FXUS64 KBRO 100307
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1007 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT.
* THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OR THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
YIELD INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, EXPECT FOR RAIN-FREE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NORMAL TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S
TO THE MID 90S WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WEST OF IH-69C.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY....VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR LOW
STRATUS AND MIST. MIST IS ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE OVER HRL AND MFE AFTER
THIS MORNING'S RAINFALL. FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN
TO VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TREND TOWARDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS
TONIGHT WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 91 78 87 / 10 10 40 30
HARLINGEN 74 91 75 86 / 0 20 40 20
MCALLEN 77 93 76 87 / 0 20 40 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 93 75 87 / 0 20 50 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 84 78 82 / 10 0 40 20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 89 77 85 / 10 10 40 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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