870
FXUS64 KBRO 190535 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1235 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT WILL BRING
MODERATE TO HIGH (60-90%) CHANCES FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
* MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN, BUT
SOME AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
* A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WITH ELEVATED SURF AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON SUNDAY. A HIGH SURF AND COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT STATEMENT ARE IN EFFECT
FOR SUNDAY MORNING STARTING AT 6 AM.
* A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1 AM SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH 10 PM SUNDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
LATEST RADAR, SATELLITE IMAGERY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR SARITA TO WESLACO.
A COASTAL TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE, ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SUNDAY MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE
COAST. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK LOW SHOULD THEN LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AND STALL OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY MORNING.
THERE IS HIGH (60-90%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES HAVE
SLIGHTLY DECREASED ON SUNDAY, WITH STILL MODERATE TO HIGH (60 TO
80%) RAIN CHANCES. THE COMBINATION OF THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT BENEFICIAL RAIN AS THE MODERATE
TO HIGH (60-70%) CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A LOW TO
MODERATE (30-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE/COASTAL THROUGH
MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST.
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR MOST
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES, WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING CLOSER TO 3-4 INCHES IN AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ANY SLOW MOVING HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM HAS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR NUISANCE AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR-
DRAINAGE AREAS.
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1
OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL PORTION OVER THE NORTHEAST
SECTION OF THE CWA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, MORE NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WEST TO THE LOWER
70S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR
THE COAST. MONDAY WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MAINLY IN THE 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AS DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT, INCLUDING LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED
SURF, AS WELL AS SOME POTENTIAL BEACH RUN-UP NEAR HIGH TIDE CYCLES,
AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE,
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY, AND A HIGH RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED, ALL STARTING AT 6 AM SUNDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MAJORITY OF THE TAF CYCLE
COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS IN THE REGION AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF CYCLE, HOWEVER IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT IFR AND LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS COULD OCCUR
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET PREVAIL ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST LATE THIS EVENING. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY EVENING. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY BEFORE
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD THEN DEVELOP AGAIN LATER IN THE
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 75 66 78 70 / 80 70 70 50
HARLINGEN 73 62 78 66 / 80 70 70 50
MCALLEN 70 62 77 68 / 80 70 70 50
RIO GRANDE CITY 66 58 74 64 / 70 70 70 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 70 76 72 / 80 70 70 50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 65 79 69 / 80 70 70 50
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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