882
FXUS64 KBRO 221137 AAB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
637 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS, BREEZY AT TIMES, AND SEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISKS (LEVELS 2 AND 3 OF 4) ON MONDAY
AND A MODERATE HEAT RISK ON TUESDAY BECOME MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF
4) TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE
HEAT RISKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL
AND INLAND PORTIONS (EXCLUDING THE BARRIER ISLANDS) OF CAMERON,
WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES AS WELL AS NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
HIDALGO AND STARR COUNTIES FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108 TO 111 F.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS LINGER INTO MONDAY, IMPROVING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE DETERIORATING AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT (PEAKING AS HIGH AS 597+ DAM ON
TUESDAY), STRETCHING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF,
FOLLOWED BY THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT APPROACHING TROUGHS LEAVES
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND; HIGHS CONTINUE TO MAXIMIZE IN THE MID/UPPER
90S IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT, ASIDE FROM
LOWER 80S IN SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADS TO BREEZY ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ON MONDAY (GUSTING TO AROUND 25-35 MPH) AND TUESDAY (GUSTING
TO NEAR 20-30 MPH); THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
ELEVATED LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MOSTLY
MODERATE HEAT RISKS, WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES ON MONDAY, THROUGH TUESDAY. A SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL
AND INLAND PORTIONS (EXCLUDING THE BARRIER ISLANDS) OF CAMERON,
WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES AS WELL AS NORTHERN/SOUTHERN HIDALGO
AND STARR COUNTIES FOR HEAT INDICES OF 108 TO 111 F, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12 PM TO 7 PM MONDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY
EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 111 F DEGREES. IF SPENDING
TIME OUTSIDE TODAY, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND
LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT.
YOUNG CHILDREN AND PETS SHOULD NEVER BE LEFT UNATTENDED IN
VEHICLES.
FOLLOWING, WINDS EASE JUST A BIT INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF
THE WEEK, REDUCING HEAT INDICES TO 100-108 F WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
RESULTING IN MINOR HEAT RISKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND
MODERATE HEAT RISKS ACROSS THE RGV. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ENHANCE MOISTURE CONTENT AND ESCALATE APPARENT TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR 105 TO 110 F WITH MODERATE HEAT HEAT RISKS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AND A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 14Z,
ESPECIALLY AT MFE/HRL. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AND
BECOME BREEZY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
MAY RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCEC) REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS MOSTLY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE (5-
7 FEET) SEAS PERSIST. WINDS EASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH AND OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING, WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
(SCEC) POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS (3-5 FEET) RESUME TUESDAY BEFORE ENHANCING
ENHANCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SCEC AND/OR SCA POSSIBLE. DRY
CONDITIONS MAINTAIN AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 82 93 80 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 94 79 94 77 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 96 80 95 79 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 98 79 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 88 82 / 0 0 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 81 91 79 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-
132-135-150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...63-KC
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