754
FXUS64 KBRO 291723
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1223 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
* OVERALL WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* THERE WILL BE LOW TO MODERATE (30 TO 60%) CHANCES OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AND
LOW CHANCES (20 TO 30%) ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
* MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE CONUS FOR
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS, POTENTIALLY THROUGH MID-JUNE. THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN TYPICALLY BRINGS SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN PLAINS, INCLUDING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS OF LOW PRESSURE (USUALLY, ONE
ON THE EAST COAST AND ONE ON THE WEST COAST). WE CAN EXPECT OVERALL
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WHILE THIS PATTERN REMAINS DOMINANT.
HOWEVER, SOME COASTAL SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MINOR SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP. THE SURFACE TROUGHING AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A LOW TO MODERATE
(30 TO 60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AND A LOW
CHANCE (20 TO 30%) ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM AND CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONCE THE SURFACE
TROUGHING SETS UP BY TUESDAY, CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE WHICH WILL
KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THE
AIR IS ALSO SUPPOSED TO BE HUMID WITH EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW,
WHICH WILL SUPPORT MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
HEAT RISK.
A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA
BEACHES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRPORTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT SOME BRIEF GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND LIGHT TO MODERATE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOW (2 TO 4
FEET) WAVE HEIGHTS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING LOW TO MODERATE (20-40%) RAIN CHANCES
OFFSHORE STARTING ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 78 93 79 92 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 74 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 77 97 78 96 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 86 81 86 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 91 79 90 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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