654
FXUS64 KBRO 141903 CCB
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
203 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES (LEVEL 2/4) AND HEAT INDICES OF 105-110 F TODAY
IMPROVING TO A MINOR RISK (LEVEL 1/4) TOMORROW.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON,
BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, HIGH
RISKS OF RIP CURRENTS, ELEVATED AND DANGEROUS SURF AS WELL AS
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG/NEAR THE
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-40%) CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
ASIDE FROM A VERY LOW (10-15%) CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT STREAMER
SHOWERS, TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AND SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OTHERWISE
MAINTAIN DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW,
GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS 25-30+ MPH THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AS WELL, MAXIMIZING IN THE LOW/MID 90S
ALONG/EAST OF US-281 AND MID/UPPER 90S FURTHER WEST IN THE AFTERNOON
TODAY AND TOMORROW WHILE MINIMIZING IN THE 70S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. FACTORING IN ONSHORE GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION, HEAT
INDICES OF 105-110 F AND A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES
ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON, DROPPING TO A MINOR RISK (LEVEL
1/4) TOMORROW AND FRIDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DRIES RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES.
MEANWHILE, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW AIDS IN DEEPENING A TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES, PUSHING THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM'S
TRAILING COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PASSING THROUGH OUR
REGION ON FRIDAY, POSSIBLY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS,
TRANSITIONING AND ENHANCING WINDS TO NORTHERLY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
30- 35+ DURING THE DAYTIME. A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING ALONG/EAST US-281,
WHERE THE NBM SUGGESTS A 50-80% PROBABILITY OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 40
MPH. ACCORDING TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE,
THERE IS EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH/WARNING ACROSS
INLAND AREAS ALONG/EAST US-281, WHERE THE HIGHER END OF GUSTS
COULD REACH TO NEAR 55+ MPH.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY TO AS MUCH
AS A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE FOR THE LOWER RGV (HIGHEST
ALONG THE COAST) WHILE AREAS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER HAVE A
LOW (15-30%) CHANCE BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT
FRIDAY EVENING. YET, THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COASTAL WATERS, WHERE STRONG WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS, LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS, HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS DRY WEATHER RESUMES.
ON A SIDENOTE, DESPITE RECENT RAINS HAVING IMPROVED THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, DRY AND HOT TEMPERATURES OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE ONGOING DROUGHT COULD BRING A BIT
OF A WILDFIRE SPREAD CONCERN ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHERLY
WINDS USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CRASHING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS (RFDS) ARE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND AREAS ALONG/EAST US-281
DURING THIS PERIOD.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL, TEMPERATURES MAY
STILL MANAGE TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, WARMEST ACROSS
THE RGV, ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, MODERATE
TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BROUGHT IN BY THE BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS COULD DROP TEMPERATURES BY NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES AND INTO THE
50S AND 60S FRIDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS EVEN A BIT COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.
FOLLOWING, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RETURNS TO THE REGION, LEADING TO A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHEN LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES OF RAIN MAY RETURN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS, WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH
POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN, ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, LIKELY BECOMING MOSTLY VFR TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AROUND
10-15+ KT, GUSTING TO 25-30 KT, BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT TO GENTLE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO NIGHT AS A RESULT OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, WHILE MODERATE (3-5 FT)
SEAS PERSIST AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IMPROVE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW, BECOMING EASTERLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON, TRANSITIONING WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND
QUICKLY ENHANCING TO NEAR-GALE WITH GALE-FORCE GUSTS, POSSIBLY BY
FRIDAY EVENING, BUILDING SEAS TO ROUGH AND/OR VERY ROUGH (10+ FT)
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS, A GALE WATCH IS EXPECTED TO
BE ISSUED TOMORROW OR TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BEGIN TO
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE LATER HALF OF SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS.
OTHERWISE, CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT TO AS MUCH
AS A MEDIUM TO LIKELY (40-80%) CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. LOW (15-30%) CHANCES OF RAIN COULD
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCREASING TO LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE
BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 76 90 74 88 / 0 0 10 50
HARLINGEN 73 93 71 89 / 0 0 10 50
MCALLEN 77 96 74 92 / 0 10 10 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 95 72 90 / 0 0 10 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 86 78 85 / 0 0 10 70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 88 74 86 / 0 0 10 60
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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