486
FXUS64 KBRO 141106 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
606 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 605 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- HOT WITH GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE WEEK. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A LOW (10-30%) RAIN CHANCE ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS AND
NEAR THE COAST MIDWEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ALONG WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES OF 100-110 WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY MODERATE HEAT
RISKS (LEVEL 2 OF 4).
- THERE IS A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH LATE
WEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, LOW (10-
30%)RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND
NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, WEAKNESS ALOFT AND
DAYTIME WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ZAPATA COUNTY WITHIN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS, EXCEPT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RETURN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER BY THE WEEKEND WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY NEAR FALCON LAKE, REACHING THE TRIPLE
DIGITS. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-110 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY A MODERATE HEAT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) EACH DAY.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AT NIGHT. CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT COVERAGE IS
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED AND HAS BEEN KEPT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, BRIEF
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ON THE LAGUNA MADRE
AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS (0-20 NM) OUT. THERE IS A LOW RAIN CHANCE
(10-30%) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER THE GULF WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 81 93 81 / 0 0 10 0
HARLINGEN 95 79 94 78 / 0 10 10 0
MCALLEN 99 81 97 81 / 0 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 100 79 97 79 / 0 0 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 88 81 / 0 10 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 80 91 80 / 0 10 10 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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