000
FXUS64 KBRO 131716
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1216 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK EXPECTED.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BRING FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
- COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS INCREASED RIP CURRENTS, COASTAL FLOODING,
AND HIGH SURF ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY GUSTY WINDS THAT ARRIVE WITH
THE COLD FRONT.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND POSSIBLY EVEN GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE BAY AND THE GULF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AS HEAT
INDICES REACH AS HIGH AS 110 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY THE END OF THIS WEEK, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COLD
FRONT TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY FRIDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA, WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A MODERATE (40-60%)
CHANCE THROUGHOUT ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MODERATE RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY, MAINLY CONCENTRATED TO AREAS EAST OF I-69C.
LOW (20-30%) CHANCES LINGER INTO SUNDAY FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST, WHICH COULD RESULT IN HAZARDS ON LOCAL BEACHES SUCH AS
ELEVATED RIP CURRENTS, HIGH SURF, AND POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
TO CALM AGAIN BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
AND GUST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH 00Z. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
INTERMITTENT SCEC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BOTH
ON THE BAY AND ON THE GULF WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT IS SUPPOSED
TO REACH THE AREA, WHICH WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AND POSSIBLY EVEN GALE CONDITIONS AS WIND SPEEDS PICK UP OVER ALL OF
THE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE BACK TO FAVORABLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE WINDS CALM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 92 77 90 / 0 10 0 10
HARLINGEN 77 95 74 93 / 0 10 0 10
MCALLEN 80 98 77 95 / 0 10 0 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 78 99 76 95 / 0 0 0 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 87 80 86 / 10 10 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 90 76 88 / 0 10 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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