215
FXUS64 KBRO 121750
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1250 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
A CONDITIONAL RISK OF THOSE STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE;
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%).
* DRY, WARM, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
* A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY.
* ADVERSE (SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION) MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THOSE
STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATEST GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SCANS REVEALED
A BKN-OVC DECK OF STRATUS TO STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD WITH
SOME SPRINKLES/RAIN SHOWERS AROUND AS THE REGION SITS UNDER AN AT
TIMES ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REGIME AND ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF A POTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
ALL OF THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS MORNING IS AHEAD OF
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGIES THAT WILL BE TRACKING OVERHEAD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WHICH COULD LEAD IN A RENEWED
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE VALUES ARE STRONGER
THAN YESTERDAY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOLID ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD
COVER AND WEAK FORCING OVERALL COULD KEEP THE SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED, WHICH IS WHY THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER (SPC) HAS PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL OR
ISOLATED RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST TIMEFRAME FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE REGION LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN THE HOURS OF
6PM CDT THIS EVENING TO 3AM CDT MONDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES, SOME +1
TO +3 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THUNDERSTORM, SEVERE WEATHER, AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING TRENDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT FOR WARM AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO NEAR 90F DEGREES WEST.
RAIN-FREE, WARMER THAN NORMAL, AND AT TIMES BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED
TO RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST COULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S MOST PLACES; UPPER 70S NORTHWEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY....LATEST GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SFC OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED A BKN-OVC DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS
OVERHEAD WITH CLOUD BASES RANGING BETWEEN 1,500-3,000 FEET AGL AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE IH-69C AND IH-69E CORRIDORS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE VCSH HEADLINES OVER MFE AND HRL THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIDING OVERHEAD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVES OVER A TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITIES OF BRIEFLY REDUCING CIGS/VISIBILITIES TO IFR-LIFR
LEVELS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
ADVERSE (SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION) MARINE CONDITONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK THANKS TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING
IN BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 85 73 86 / 20 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 70 88 70 89 / 20 0 0 0
MCALLEN 74 91 75 91 / 30 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 90 72 93 / 30 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 79 73 79 / 20 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 85 71 85 / 20 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...23-EVBUOMA
LONG TERM....23-EVBUOMA
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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