642
FXUS64 KBRO 140527 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1227 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- MAJOR TO EXTREME RISKS (LEVELS 3/4 AND 4/4) OF HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES ON FRIDAY GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO A MOSTLY MODERATE
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) BY SUNDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY DETERIORATING TO A
MAJOR RISK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) IS IN EFFECT FOR STARR,
HIDALGO AND BROOKS AS WELL AS THE COASTAL AND INLAND PORTIONS
OF CAMERON, WILLACY AND KENEDY COUNTIES ON FRIDAY FOR HEAT
INDICES OF 108-111+ F.
- ASIDE FROM A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
- THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER COINCIDING
WITH LOW AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BRINGS A
CONTINUED RISK OF FIRE WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS PREVAILS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST AND RAISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE PROCESSION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING OVER THE PLAINS LEADS TO ANOTHER
BRUTALLY HOT DAY ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS, GUSTING TO AROUND 25-35+ MPH, PUMP HEAT AND GULF MOISTURE
INLAND, RESULTING ONCE AGAIN IN A MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. A SPS
IS IN EFFECT FOR BROOKS, STARR AND HIDALGO AS WELL AS THE INLAND
AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF KENEDY, WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY FOR AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 108-111 F, OR A FEW DEGREES
WARMER, GENERALLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE HOURS OF 12 PM TO 5 PM. THE
ONLY TEMPORARY RELIEF ON FRIDAY COULD BE FROM A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH PASSING ALOFT, POSSIBLY GENERATING A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF
RAIN FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
PASSING EAST-TO-WEST, ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AS THE RIDGE EXTENDS FURTHER WEST AND FLATTENS THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES JUST A BIT AND A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL GULF COAST,
TRANSITIONING AND WEAKENING WINDS TO MOSTLY EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
GUSTS OF 15-25+ MPH BY SATURDAY, CAUSING HEAT RISKS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MAINLY MODERATE, WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR, FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ALONG WITH 105-110 F MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES.
THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES,
WITH LOWER 100S (100-103 F) PEELING BACK TO ALONG/WEST OF I-69 E
THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE MID 100S
(104-106 F) PERSIST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND MID/UPPER 80S
CONTINUE ALONG/NEAR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. HOWEVER, A
WARMING TREND ENSUES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD AND THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF, BRINGING BACK NEARLY
WIDESPREAD INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 100S AND WORSENING RISKS OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES TO MOSTLY MAJOR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM ANOTHER WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
PASSING OVER ON MONDAY, BRINGING A LOW (15-20%) CHANCE OF RAIN
ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY TO THE LOWER AND MID RGV, DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
MOST DAYS ALONG THE SEABREEZE. WHILE HEAT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, ADDITIONAL SPSS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHEN 20-FOOT WINDS OF AROUND 10-15+
MPH, GUSTING TO 20-30+ MPH (UP TO 35+ MPH ON FRIDAY), COINCIDE
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMIZING AROUND 25-50 PERCENT, DRIEST
FURTHEST WEST/NORTHWEST AND VICE VERSA.
A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER AN AIRFIELD, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY
BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
ALTHOUGH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE
AND THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS (0-20 NM) UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY (TONIGHT)
FOR SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS, GUSTING TO
25 KNOTS, MARINE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASE TO
MODERATE TO FRESH BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE (3-5 FT) SEAS.
PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION (SCEC) HEADLINES ARE LIKELY
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GENTLE TO MODERATE, OCCASIONALLY
FRESH, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE (2-4 FT) SEAS
RESUME ON SATURDAY. SCEC CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, ASIDE FROM A LOW (15-30%) CHANCE
OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 97 82 97 80 / 20 10 0 0
HARLINGEN 100 79 100 77 / 20 0 0 0
MCALLEN 102 82 103 81 / 20 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 103 80 103 78 / 20 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 82 89 81 / 20 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 80 95 79 / 20 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ130-132-135-150-155.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...60-BE
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