611
FXUS64 KBRO 041726
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1226 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY
AND MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
* A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL EITHER STALL OVER OUR AREA OR PUSH THROUGH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST. AT THIS TIME, IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT.
* EITHER WAY, THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE (20-50%) CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IF THE FRONT STALLS, RAIN
CHANCES COULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
* A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONED OFF THE COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT UNSEASONABLY HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER, WITH POTENTIAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (PARTICULARLY
ON WEDNESDAY) AND MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF
4) HEAT RISKS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALSO TIGHTEN AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, BUT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA, WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME
HEATING. AT THIS TIME, IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS COLD FRONT WILL
COMPLETELY MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA OR STALL OVER THE REGION. EITHER
WAY, THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (20-50%)
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE LOW TO MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
IF THE FRONT HAPPENS TO STALL, A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE THAT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN
INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. IN ADDITION, A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA A FEW DAYS WHICH
WILL ALSO PROVIDE LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND. IF
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH INSTEAD OF STALLING, THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
AGREEMENT AS TO WHICH SCENARIO WILL HAPPEN. A CLEARER PICTURE
SHOULD UNFOLD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE AVAILABILITY OF CLOSER-
RANGE GUIDANCE INCREASES.
DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING INCREASED WINDS AND ROUGHER
SURF, A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IS IN
PLACE AT AREA BEACHES FROM NOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATE TONIGHT (AROUND 04-05Z)
CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AND COULD BE BREEZY AT
TIMES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER
IN THE WEEK AS AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY EITHER STALL OR MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
WIND SPEEDS OR WAVE HEIGHTS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 75 90 77 93 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 71 92 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 75 95 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 72 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 83 77 85 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 89 76 91 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM
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