080
FXUS64 KBRO 252217
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
517 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 517 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- LOW TO MODERATE (20 TO 40%) SEA BREEZE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE DRYER THIS WEEKEND, BUT LOW TO MODERATE RAIN
CHANCES WILL RESUME AGAIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
- MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAJOR TO
EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) RISK RETURNS.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A COOLER, WETTER
PATTERN TO THE REGION MORE TYPICAL OF THE FALL.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL SETTLED OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST
TEXAS, SUPPORTING AN EASTERLY FLOW TO OUR REGION ON THE UNDERSIDE
OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING LOW TO
MODERATE (20 TO 40%) CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE AREA. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRY UP THIS WEEKEND, AS THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS AND SUPPRESSES CONVECTIVE FORMATION DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AS EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES
WHILE THE THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN. UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST MEXICO. A
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SIMULTANEOUSLY MOVE OVER THE CONUS
FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. THOUGH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THIS MORE DISTURBED PATTERN LATER IN THE
WEEK CONTAINING BOTH SURFACE GULF MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES TO ALL
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, REACHING THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S EACH DAY, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WHILE NO
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS OR HEAT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISSUED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WITH THE INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT, HEAT
RISK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MAJOR TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) BY
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, AS "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURES GO UP
WITH WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY.
LONGER-RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS TROUGH MAY BRING A MUCH-WELCOME WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY, AND ALSO USHER IN AN OVERALL COOLER, RAINIER
PATTERN THAT IS MORE TYPICAL TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ON FRIDAY, AND IT
APPEARS THAT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE (CONDUCIVE TO
UNSEASONABLY HOT, DRY WEATHER) IS UNLIKELY TO REESTABLISH ITSELF
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS MORE FAVORABLE
TOWARD ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN THE COMING WEEKS.
A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS REMAINS AT AREA
BEACHES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY....VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS EVENING WILL TREND TOWARDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. AN EAST-NORTHEAST COMPONENT WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS
AND MAYBE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE (2-4 FEET)
WAVE HEIGHTS. SCEC AND/OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 80 96 79 96 / 10 20 0 10
HARLINGEN 75 99 74 99 / 0 10 0 10
MCALLEN 78 101 78 102 / 10 10 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 100 77 101 / 10 10 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 89 82 89 / 0 10 0 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page