270
FXUS64 KBRO 091804
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
104 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND DUE
TO LONG PERIOD SWELL.
* MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS
MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
* THERE IS A MODERATE (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
BUSY MORNING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE
THREAT FINALLY BECOMING REALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A LONG-LASTING CELL
LATE THIS MORNING PRODUCED MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE AND SUB-
SEVERE HAIL IN ZAPATA, STARR, HIDALGO, AND CAMERON COUNTIES, AND
LIKELY MULTIPLE MICROBURSTS IN BOTH HIDALGO AND CAMERON COUNTIES.
RADAR HAS MOSTLY CLEARED, SO HAVE CLEARED POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL, SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WAS PRETTY WORKED OVER. A
LITTLE BIT OF A WAKE LOW HAS KICKED SOME WINDS UP BEHIND THE
ACTION ACROSS CAMERON COUNTY. EXPECT THAT TO DROP OFF INTO THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND TURN BACK SOUTHEASTERLY.
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIVES SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WITH A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS ACTIVITY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
RANCHLANDS AND FURTHER UPSTREAM. THE MAIN THREATS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ANYTHING DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE CWA.
MORNING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT DIP BACK TOWARDS NORMAL AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.
LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES TO DRIVE A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS A MINOR (LEVEL 1
OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH A MINOR HEAT RISK THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A LITTLE BIT OF A WAKE LOW BEHIND THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS
KICKED UP BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECTED WINDS TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
RETURNING THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SEVERE WEATHER HAS PUSHED FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH SMALL CRAFT
CAUTION CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MID-LATE AFTERNOON DUE TO
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT INTO EARLY MONDAY. EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TUESDAY
WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 77 91 77 88 / 10 10 30 10
HARLINGEN 74 92 75 87 / 10 20 30 20
MCALLEN 76 93 76 89 / 0 20 30 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 94 74 89 / 0 20 40 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 84 78 83 / 10 0 30 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 89 77 86 / 10 10 30 10
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...56-HALLMAN
LONG TERM....56-HALLMAN
AVIATION...56-HALLMAN
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