943
FXUS64 KBRO 211757 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1257 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES OF RAIN, POSSIBLY HEAVY LOCALLY,
EXPAND FROM ALONG/EAST US-281/I-69 C THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT TO MOST OF THE REGION TOMORROW INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
- DRIER WEATHER AND MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES RETURN TOMORROW EVENING,
PERSISTING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD MINOR RISKS
OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES (LEVEL 1/4) CONTINUE.
- A MEDIUM RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
A PAIR OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS,
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 588-591 DAM HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO, ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG/EAST US-281/I-69 C
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, EXPANDING TO MOST OF THE
REGION TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN COMPARISON TO
YESTERDAY, A BIT OF DRIER-THAN-ANTICIPATED AIR ALOFT HAS LED TO A
DOWNWARD TREND IN FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WITH THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY REMAINING OFFSHORE. HOWEVER,
RELATIVELY ELEVATED MOISTURE CONTENT (PWAT VALUES OF 1.6-2.0+ IN.)
COULD STILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY
NEAR/ALONG THE COAST, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF UP TO 0.5 AN INCH,
OR A BIT MORE, OF RAIN. MEANWHILE, THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS
ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, ENHANCING SUBSIDENCE AND DIMINISHING CHANCES OF
RAIN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS THE REGION BY
TOMORROW EVENING.
ASIDE FROM ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGING A POSSIBLE LOW (15-20%)
CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER MAY BE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH PASSING OVER THE
PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE, THANKS
TO LIGHTER NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS, GENERALLY AS HIGH AS
THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S DURING THE DAY AND FALLING TO THE
60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST AT NIGHT. HIGHS COULD
EVEN TREND A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN CHANCES BUILD. AT WORST, PATCHES
TO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MINOR RISKS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE LATEST KBRO AND KHRL AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR/SATELLITE
INDICATE VCSH FROM AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS OFFSHORE THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST, WHICH COULD BRING A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%)
CHANCE OF LIGHT TO LOCALIZED MODERATE OR HEAVY SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS ALL
AERODROMES THIS TONIGHT BEFORE LOW (15-30%) CHANCES OF LIGHT
SHOWERS RETURN BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW, NOTED IN THE PROB30S.
MEANWHILE, KMFE IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THOUGH A ROGUE SHOWER
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. ASIDE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF, LOCALIZED
REDUCED VISIBILITY WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE, WITH
MODERATE (4-6 FT) SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO SLIGHT TO MODERATE
(2-4 FT) WHILE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTIONS CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY ENHANCES WINDS
TO MODERATE TO FRESH ALONG WITH MODERATE (4-6 FT) SEAS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE MODERATE SEAS PERSIST.
MEDIUM TO LIKELY (40-70%) CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY TO
LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE
EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. ASIDE FROM A LOW (15-30%)
CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCES RETURN NEXT MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 73 84 68 85 / 20 30 0 0
HARLINGEN 71 84 65 86 / 20 30 0 0
MCALLEN 72 88 66 90 / 20 40 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 70 88 65 89 / 10 50 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 79 73 80 / 40 20 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 81 67 83 / 40 20 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...65-IRISH
LONG TERM....65-IRISH
AVIATION...65-IRISH
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