243
FXUS64 KBRO 090557 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1257 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* THERE IS A CONTINUED MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS
ZAPATA, JIM HOGG, STARR, AND WESTERN HIDALGO COUNTIES.
* THESE RISKS REMAIN CONDITIONAL, BUT IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP, THERE IS A 5% PROBABILITY OF LARGE (1+ INCH) HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS (60+ MPH) AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
* A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.
* MINOR TO MODERATE (LEVELS 1 OF 4 AND 2 OF 4) HEAT RISKS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
AS MENTIONED FOR TONIGHT, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID VALLEY INTO THE RANCHLANDS. MOST CAMS
CONTINUE TRY TO DEVELOP SIERRA MADRE CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT THAT
EVENTUALLY MAKES IT WAY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. GENERALLY THESE
MODELS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE, SOME BRINGING IN CONVECTION BY
MIDNIGHT TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, AND OTHERS MORE NEAR DAYBREAK
CLOSER TO THE MID TO LOWER VALLEY. SO FAR, ANY DEVELOPMENT HAS
DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING THE RIO GRANDE. PWATS THIS EVENING
FROM THE SOUNDING AT BRO HAVE FALLEN TO 1.68 INCHES, THOUGH
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE UPPER VALLEY INTO THE RANCHLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MAKE IT TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR
FLOODING RAINFALL REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THOUGH A SLIGHT COOL OFF TO NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. MINOR
TO MODERATE HEAT RISKS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS INTO
THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
GENERALLY VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE AERODROMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALSO
OCCUR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH 6 TO
7 SECOND PERIODS. THERE DOES REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 77 91 77 / 20 10 10 30
HARLINGEN 89 74 92 75 / 20 0 10 30
MCALLEN 90 76 93 76 / 20 10 10 30
RIO GRANDE CITY 90 75 94 74 / 30 10 10 40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 78 84 78 / 20 10 10 30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 76 89 77 / 20 10 10 30
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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