456
FXUS64 KBRO 120346
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1046 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
LOCAL BEACHES. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7
AM.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE LATE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVEL 2 TO 3/4) RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT WILL END AT 7 AM MONDAY AS WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE DECREASING. SOUTH PADRE ISLAND WEBCAMS AROUND SUNDAY
EVENING'S HIGH TIDE SHOWED NARROW BEACHES, BUT LITTLE TO NO WATER
REACHING THE DUNES. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES FOR COLUMBUS DAY.
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS A 20% OR LESS CHANCE OF STREAMER SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF I-69C. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW (15% OR LESS) THROUGH
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BRINGING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL HOPEFULLY BRING RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT, WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS FAR OUT,
THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING AND IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND HOW
FAR SOUTH THE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXTENDS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST, AS ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY IN THE
COMING DAYS.
THROUGH THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S, AND HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105-110 DEGF RANGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KTS THROUGH
SUNSET POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, WITH
A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
(BRO AND HRL). CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN TIMING OR DIRECT
IMPACT TO EITHER SITE FOR TAF MENTION. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN LATE MONDAY MORNING TO 25 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
MODERATE ONSHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MODERATE SEAS 3-4 FT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES STAY LOW (GENERALLY 20% OR
LESS), WITH GREATEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK WILL DETERIORATE CONDITIONS, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TO MODERATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 90 79 94 81 / 10 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 92 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 0
MCALLEN 94 79 98 80 / 10 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 94 76 98 78 / 0 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 82 88 83 / 10 20 20 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 78 92 79 / 10 20 20 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....69-HK
AVIATION...69-HK
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