503
FXUS64 KBRO 121017
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
517 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 516 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE (10%)
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING SWELL MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, EXCEPT FOR THE 80S AT THE
BEACHES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 110 DEGREES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH HUMIDITY AND WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK ACROSS
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. GENERALLY, RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGHER PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW (15% OR LESS) CHANCE OF
ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS OR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THE DRY WEATHER COMES TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO TRACKS TOWARDS EASTERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE (10%)
OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND 7 DAYS. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
2 TO 2.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY STARTING EARLY SATURDAY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (30 TO 70%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AROUND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. RAIN WANES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE NEAR
THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW TO MODERATE (20-60%) FOR SUNDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS IN PLACE. A
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING OVER THE PLAINS AND
TEXAS, PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL (2-3+ INCHES) MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS HIGHLIGHTED
IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY AS THE NBM IS
INDICATING HIGHER QPF VALUES DURING THIS TIME. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A MODERATE
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ADVERSE BEACH
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING COASTAL RUNUP, WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SWELL
INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY....VFR CONDITIONS, BY AND LARGE, WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. THERE COULD BE A FEW MVFR
CLOUDS AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-15 KTS. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THERE
COULD BE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS AND LOW TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ON THE GULF WATERS AS WINDS AND SEAS BECOME ELEVATED. ADVERSE
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING SWELL AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES EASTERN MEXICO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AND GULF
WATERS BY THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 93 80 90 81 / 10 40 70 20
HARLINGEN 93 77 90 78 / 10 20 60 10
MCALLEN 96 79 92 79 / 10 10 70 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 97 77 93 77 / 10 10 50 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 83 86 83 / 10 30 60 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 80 88 80 / 10 20 60 20
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM....63
AVIATION...23-EVBUOMA
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