343
FXUS64 KBRO 021803 CCA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
103 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES:
* LIFE-THREATENING BEACH, SURF, AND MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
* MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH A
QUICK WARMUP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, ELEVATING HEAT RISK.
* ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
COOLER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. HOWEVER, THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG AS A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THUS THE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK, MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE IN A
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) HEAT RISK, WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD BE IN
A MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK.
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK COULD SEE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE
AREA AND STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SET UP COULD ALLOW FOR
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS
MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THE MODELS DO
KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES LOW (AROUND 30%), SO THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD. AS SUCH MAKE SURE TO
COMEBACK AROUND FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
LASTLY, COASTAL HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IMPACTFUL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, AS HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO SUNDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
COULD BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AS HIGH TIDE COMES AROUND AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE MODELS DO GENERALLY SHOW THAT
THE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
THERE SHOULD STILL BE A CLOUD DECK AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FT OVER THE
REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD MOSTLY LIGHT AND START OUT
FROM THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
HOURS OF SUNDAY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. EVEN AFTER THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY DOES EXPIRE, THE WATERS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE AND THE
GULF ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ADVERSE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THUS SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
SUNDAY. MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MONDAY WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. HOWEVER, A RETURN
OF ADVERSE AND POSSIBLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR AROUND
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 65 81 67 85 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 60 83 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 63 84 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 58 83 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 77 72 80 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 81 68 84 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ451-454-455.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ451-454-455.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
SHORT TERM...64-KATZ
LONG TERM....64-KATZ
AVIATION...64-KATZ
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