077
FXUS64 KCRP 221123
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
523 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
TODAY WILL NOT BE PLEASANT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE 30 TO 70 PERCENT
TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THOUGH CHANCES
ARE LOW, THOSE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES MAY EVEN GET A
THUNDERSTORM. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WHEN MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE OVER THE WATERS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT, WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO PERSIST TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT
SO WE WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. AND EVEN MORE GOOD NEWS, CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE 60S ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
- POSSIBLE FRONT MIDWEEK.
- VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THE COASTAL LOW CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS. MEANWHILE, A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL TX WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST NEAR OUR CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK, THEN SLOWLY MOVE
OFFSHORE SOMETIME TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK EITHER AS A WEAK
LOW OR AS AN OPEN TROUGH. BOTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT WITH ZERO OR NEAR ZERO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND <15% CHANCE SATURDAY.
A DRY VERTICAL PROFILE WILL PRECLUDE RAINFALL NEXT WORK WEEK WITH
PWATS EXPECTED AROUND 0.50" (GEFS MEAN). THIS IS LESS THAN THE
25TH PERCENTILE BUT PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HOWEVER, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
THE ENSEMBLE MODELS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON RESULTING IN LOW
CONFIDENCE OVERALL. EVEN SO, THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN RETURN AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY.
WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY BETWEEN MODELS, SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH THE NBM (DRIER/WARMER SOLUTION) FOR NOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND MAY NEED TO REVISIT POPS.
THE DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSOLATION (THANKS TO
CLEARER SKIES) MONDAY WILL LEAD TO MORE EFFICIENT DIURNAL WARMING
NEXT WEEK, HELPING US CLIMB AWAY FROM THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
BACK INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL
INCREASE TO THE 50S ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY, DROPPING TO
IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROS
SOUTH TEXAS WHICH COULD RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO
NORTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH TODAY HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED,
RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. THERE IS A
MODERATE TO HIGH (60-80%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH A LOW (20-40%) CHANCE OF THUNDER. WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK BY MONDAY BEFORE VEERING
ONSHORE. WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS
A POTENTIAL FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 43 41 62 43 / 60 50 20 0
VICTORIA 42 39 62 42 / 70 70 30 0
LAREDO 44 41 68 44 / 40 10 0 0
ALICE 42 39 64 42 / 60 40 10 0
ROCKPORT 46 43 60 46 / 60 70 40 0
COTULLA 43 40 69 42 / 40 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 42 40 64 41 / 60 40 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 47 44 60 47 / 60 70 30 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ250-255-270-
275.
SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...LS/77
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