796
FXUS64 KCRP 211117
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
517 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER QUIET - AND PLEASANT IN THIS
FORECASTERS OPINION - BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT LAST NIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BEGIN PUMPING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. THINK THERE IS A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR FOG EARLY SUNDAY NEAR THE COAST WHERE DPTS WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 50S, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE SEASONAL - IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ADD TO
THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS, THOUGH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY MAY
BECOME NOTICEABLE ON SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE
AS LOW - THANKS TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE, BUT STILL IN THE 40S
AND 50S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
- WEAK COLD FRONT LATE CHRISTMAS EVE
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY, AND AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE WEEK
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS HOLIDAY WEEK AS SEVERAL MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK OVER THE STATE, SENDING ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.
POPS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20-50% ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY AS A RESULT OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES WILL NEAR 1200-1300 J/KG DURING THIS TIME, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW INTO CHRISTMAS NIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BY
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TRACKS ALOFT WHILE ONSHORE FLOW
RESUMES. A DAILY LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THEREAFTER INTO THE WEEKEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
RANGE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, THESE ARE FORECAST TO DROP BY AROUND 5
DEGREES F BEHIND THE MID WEEK BOUNDARY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S RANGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS START TO INCREASE MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT, THERE IS
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING EAST TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AT WEAK TO MODERATE LEVELS, BEFORE
BRIEFLY TURNING OFFSHORE BEHIND A WEAK FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
(CHRISTMAS DAY). ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO RESUME BY THURSDAY.
THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 54 73 61 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 67 40 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 74 56 74 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 70 49 75 57 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 67 55 73 62 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 71 51 74 60 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 71 52 73 60 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 66 60 70 65 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....ANM/88
AVIATION...PH/83
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