825
FXUS64 KCRP 101939
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
139 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
- BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS WITH COOLER NIGHTS THROUGH MID-WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.
THE QUESTION MARK IN THE FORECAST WILL HOWEVER BE, HOW COLD WILL
WE GET TONIGHT? ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING, PER LATEST GUIDANCE, CLOUDS WILL STICK
AROUND DUE TO OVERRUNNING. AS A RESULT, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILDER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 30S OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT FOR
SOUTH TEXAS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 30S.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 80 DEGREES THROUGH LATE
WEEK AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20-40% MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A MORE EFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT IN PLACE AT THE
300K LEVEL. OVERALL, EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE MOSTLY IN THE 40S ALL
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AT AREA
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT AROUND 25-30 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 109 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE (BF 6-7) WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
BUILDING SEAS TO 6-10 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3
FT. THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT,
AND AGAIN TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 109 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
PORTIONS OF WEBB COUNTY WILL DROP BELOW 30% RELATIVE HUMIDITY
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20-30% INLAND AND 30-40% FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AND ERC VALUES
WILL BE IN THE 50TH- 75TH PERCENTILE SO WE CAN EXPECT AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THOUGH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT/SUNDAY, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP TO 10-25% INLAND (AND REMAIN AROUND 30% ALONG THE COAST),
AND ERCS WILL INCREASE TO THE 70TH-80TH PERCENTILES WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SHOULD WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP, SO PLEASE
CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION IN AND AROUND ANY IGNITION SOURCES. AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SPRINKLES OF RAIN, BUT NO WETTING RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST ASIDE
FROM THE CHANCES DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 45 61 49 63 / 10 0 0 10
VICTORIA 39 65 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 45 61 47 64 / 0 10 10 10
ALICE 43 64 44 65 / 10 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 45 64 48 64 / 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 38 64 44 64 / 0 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 45 62 46 64 / 20 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 49 62 54 62 / 20 0 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...ANM/88
AVIATION...ANM/88
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