524
FXUS64 KCRP 210657
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1257 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
- STRONG ARCTIC BLAST TRENDING EARLIER WITH PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
- LOW CHANCE FOR A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MIX SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BEST CHANCES INLAND OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS
- EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5-15 DEGREES EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
A WEAK COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTH AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE WATERS WILL
CONTRIBUTE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS TODAY, WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUS OVER THE
WATERS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, A
LULL IN RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY WILL RAISE BACK TO 20-40% FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES.
THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT HAS TRENDED EARLIER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE 0Z ECMWF RUN, BRINGING THE SURGE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE, BRINGING
FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL USHER IN ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE FOR THE TIME OF THE YEAR AND
PRODUCE A MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.
MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, TAPERING
OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS TIME WINDOW IS THE MOST IMPACTFUL TIME TO FOCUS ON!
CURRENTLY, MOISTURE SEEMS TO HANG ON LONG ENOUGH TO COINCIDE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AND CREATE AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MIX OVER MAJORITY OF SOUTH
TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
0Z ECMWF RUN). EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ALSO ARE EXPECTED,
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE VICTORIA AREA AND INTO
THE TEENS ELSEWHERE, LIKELY NEEDING AN EXTREME COLD WATCH/WARNING.
A REMINDER THAT ANY ICE ACCUMULATION IS OUR WINTER STORM
WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA HERE IN SOUTH TEXAS. MULTIPLE FREEZING
NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED STRETCHING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS
FOR THEIR LOWS.
WHILE THE FORECAST CAN AND WILL CHANGE, ALL ARE URGED TO STAY
INFORMED ON THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM TRUSTED SOURCES
AND START PREPARING NOW TO KEEP YOUR PLACE WARM AND HAVE ALL YOUR
ESSENTIALS IN CASE OF ANY POWER OUTAGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, WITH
VCT ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL BY THE MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING AS NOTED BY TEMPOS. A LOW (20-40%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW THE REST OF TONIGHT,
WITH A FRESH BREEZE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH TO
A LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE
TO A STRONG TO NEAR GALE (BF 6-7) FLOW BY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GALE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY.
MODERATE TO HIGH (70-90%) RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WATERS TODAY
THANKS DUE SURFACE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO HIGH
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE COAST WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES FEELING WELL BELOW FREEZING DURING LATE NIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30% THROUGH THE
FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY AND BECOMING STRONG
IN WAKE OF AN ARCTIC BLAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE EXTREME DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 60 76 62 / 30 10 10 0
VICTORIA 72 55 76 57 / 40 10 10 0
LAREDO 72 51 77 60 / 10 0 0 0
ALICE 73 57 79 60 / 30 10 10 0
ROCKPORT 69 58 71 61 / 40 20 10 0
COTULLA 72 51 76 57 / 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 72 58 78 60 / 40 10 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 70 62 71 65 / 50 20 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...LS/77
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