308
FXUS64 KCRP 251100
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
500 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 450 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
- COLD FRONT SHOWER ACTIVITY (30-40% CHANCE) WILL GRAZE THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
- PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BY MIDWEEK, BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ALONG THE COASTAL BEND THIS EVENING CONTINUES
TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, WITH
THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WITH
THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE COAST, SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
WEAKEN. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SECONDARY, STRONGER FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO THE MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THIS
REINFORCING SURGE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING WHERE TUESDAY
EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPS. CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF ON OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, HOWEVER, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL STILL SUPPORT LOW (20-30%) SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES. THE LIMITED
OVERLAP OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS.
ONCE THE SECOND FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH, NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE, WITH THURSDAY MORNING
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND THANKS TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW, POPS REMAIN LOW
(20-30%) GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THROUGH TRENDS SUGGEST THE BEST
CHANCES MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS FIRST. FORECAST REFINEMENTS WILL BE MADE AS
GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ALONG THE COASTAL BEND THIS EVENING CONTINUES
TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, WITH
THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION REMAINING NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WITH
THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE COAST, SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
WEAKEN. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NEED TO
BE ISSUED.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SECONDARY, STRONGER FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO THE MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THIS
REINFORCING SURGE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN DETERMINING WHERE TUESDAY
EVENING CONVECTION DEVELOPS. CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF ON OVERALL
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, HOWEVER, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL STILL SUPPORT LOW (20-30%) SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES. THE LIMITED
OVERLAP OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL ONLY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS.
ONCE THE SECOND FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH, NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE, WITH THURSDAY MORNING
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND THANKS TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW, POPS REMAIN LOW
(20-30%) GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THROUGH TRENDS SUGGEST THE BEST
CHANCES MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURNS FIRST. FORECAST REFINEMENTS WILL BE MADE AS
GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS
OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY FOR ALI AND VCT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT BEFORE LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BEFORE EASING UP ON TUESDAY,
BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3), BEFORE A STRONG FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN BACK TO MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) WITH
INTERMITTENT STRONG (BF 6) GUSTS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
THROUGH FRIDAY, AFTER WHICH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RENEWED ONSHORE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG WITH
FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES, THOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT. BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MIDWEEK, MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AROUND 20-35% ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER,
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC) VALUES IN THE 25-50TH PERCENTILE
COMBINED WITH LIGHTER POST-FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT BAY. THIS DROP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WILL HOLD ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 85 60 72 52 / 10 20 10 0
VICTORIA 85 52 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 87 61 72 54 / 10 20 10 0
ALICE 87 58 73 47 / 10 20 10 0
ROCKPORT 84 60 74 54 / 0 10 10 0
COTULLA 87 56 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 87 60 72 51 / 10 20 10 0
NAVY CORPUS 82 65 71 60 / 10 20 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...LS/77
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