108
FXUS64 KCRP 270619
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1219 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
SUNDAY MORNING, COLDEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
HAPPY THANKSGIVING! ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY! FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT YESTERDAY MORNING, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LINGERING UPPER-
LEVEL CLOUDS AND WEAK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID-
UPPER 40S NORTHWARD TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST AND RIO GRANDE
EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN- FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY, INCREASING
MOISTURE. MOISTURE CLIMBING ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE, WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH, AND MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RETURN LOW RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OF WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-60%) THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT.
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT REMAINS IN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH PASSAGE
SUNDAY MORNING AND EFFICIENT COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN ITS
WAKE. MEANWHILE, A TRAILING MID-LEVEL AXIS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION (PVA) WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, LEADING TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH
TUESDAY, FILTERING IN DRIER AIR AND DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES.
ONSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS.
IT'LL TRULY FEEL LIKE THE START OF THE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER IN
SOUTH TEXAS, WAKING UP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDY SKIES AND CAA WILL LIMIT HIGHS
IN THE 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON! SIMILAR HIGHS, MAYBE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
OUR COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S OVER
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST AND RIO
GRANDE. LIKELY DUE TO THE CANADIAN MODEL, NBM PROBS DO INDICATE A
VERY LOW 15% CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES STRETCHING FROM LA SALLE TO
VICTORIA. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO AROUND 70 WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH ONLY KLRD
HAVING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR DUE TO REDUCED CIGS BETWEEN AT LEAST
04-06Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, WE KEEP THE CLOUD COVERAGE THIS
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH E'LY WINDS AT 10-15KT AND DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE RESTRENGTHENING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY, CAUSING A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TO PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, LEADING TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE (BF 6-7)
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE, DIMINISHING TO FRESH TO
STRONG (BF 5-6) SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
WILL INCREASE TO A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF 50-80% SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THEN DECREASE TO A LOW CHANCE TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30% INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DOMINATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 73 60 74 67 / 0 0 20 30
VICTORIA 70 48 73 62 / 0 0 10 40
LAREDO 71 62 74 66 / 0 10 30 10
ALICE 73 55 75 64 / 0 0 20 20
ROCKPORT 73 61 76 68 / 0 0 10 40
COTULLA 70 56 71 64 / 0 0 30 30
KINGSVILLE 74 59 75 66 / 0 0 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 73 66 75 70 / 0 0 20 40
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...AE/82
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