322
FXUS64 KCRP 220640
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
140 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH MAX HEAT INDICES 110-113.
- SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A MODERATE
TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 110-113 DEGF.
- TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH LIMITED DIRECT IMPACTS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED FOR SOUTH TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS CONTINUES TO
BE THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE DRIVING HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WILL PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE UPPER-90S ALONG THE COASTAL BEND, AND UP
TO 100-105 DEGF ELSEWHERE. THESE HIGHS COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S AND 70S WILL PROMOTE HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105-113 DEGF,
INTRODUCING A MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVELS 2/3-4) HEATRISK. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
FORECAST CHANGES VERY LITTLE ON THURSDAY, SO AN ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY.
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE CYCLONE REMAINS HEAVILY SHEARED, AND THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED. BERTHA IS NOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND LAND INTERACTION BECOMES LIKELY. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF COASTAL LOUISIANA
AND ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF EAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ACCENTUATE THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST TILT OF TS BERTHA'S VORTEX. AS A CONSEQUENCE, PVA AND DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TS BERTHA MAY BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA ON
THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THIS
ENVIRONMENT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (35-
55%) ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE TS BERTHA WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND LOSE
STRENGTH, HIGHER SURF AND AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS
BRUSHING EASTWARD ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MVFR
CEILINGS AND FOG INLAND MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS,
MAINLY BETWEEN 09-13Z AS NOTED BY THE TEMPOS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF FRESH (BF-5) FLOW AT TIMES FROM PORT OF
ARANSAS SOUTH OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AS BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD INCREASING SWELL AND BUILDING SEAS ACCOMPANIED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES TOWARD LATE THIS WEEK CAN
GENERALLY BE EXPECTED. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING IMPACTS FROM THE
STORM AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT THIS FAR OUT. FORECAST
DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONAL DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH A HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN ARE MINIMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY BUT INCREASE LATE THIS WORKWEEK WITH LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCES (35-55%) THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS. TROPICAL STORM BERTHA HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH BUT THE
OVERALL TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
INTO A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AFTER INTERACTING WITH THE
LOUISIANA PENINSULA. OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED
DESPITE LOW RH VALUES (20-30%) EARLY THIS WEEK DUE TO LOW WINDS, ERC
VALUES AND FUEL DRYNESS. AS SUCH, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 101 80 97 79 / 0 10 20 40
VICTORIA 104 79 100 78 / 0 10 20 50
LAREDO 108 82 105 81 / 0 0 10 40
ALICE 105 79 102 78 / 0 0 10 50
ROCKPORT 95 82 93 81 / 0 10 30 50
COTULLA 107 82 106 81 / 0 0 0 30
KINGSVILLE 103 78 99 78 / 0 10 20 40
NAVY CORPUS 93 82 91 81 / 0 10 30 50
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ229>234-239>244-246-247-347.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...EMF/94
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