154
FXUS64 KCRP 051026
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
426 AM CST FRI MAR 5 2021
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
OUR NEXT FRONT IS ON IT'S WAY AS A MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
SLIDING SE ACROSS OK AND WILL SKIRT NE TX AS IT BECOMES AN
OPENWAVE TODAY. AS THE REMNANTS CONTINUE TO SWEEP OFF TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW
AFTER DRY AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING THEN MOVES IN TO PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE.
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THIS MORNING MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
/ DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA AND TOWARDS THE
COAST BY TONIGHT. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE REACHES THE COAST. TIMING BETWEEN MODELS VARIES SLIGHTLY AND THE
FRONT APPEARS TO STALL BRIEFLY ONCE IT REACHES THE COAST BUT IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING IT TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TODAY EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. TONIGHT LOWS WILL DIP TO THE LOW TO MID
50S.
FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS
MINRH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 15% AND THE 20 FT WINDS WILL APPROACH
~15 KNOTS BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS BELOW THRESHOLDS DESPITE
HAVING CURED FUELS HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN RFD.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A VERY SUBTLE 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIMITED DUE TO THE PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY ADVECTING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. THEREFORE,
MOST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO
MID 70S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. HOWEVER, PWAT IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM AROUND 0.5" TO 0.75-1" BY SUNDAY EVENING
DUE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND.
A 500 HPA TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING 500 HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
CWA AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SERIES
OF SURFACE CYCLONES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ADVECTING WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
PROGRESSIVE THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DURING THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
ASCENT WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DUE TO
RETURN FLOW SHOULD (HOPEFULLY) RESULT IN MORE APPRECIABLE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP ON
MONDAY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 53 68 53 70 / 20 0 0 0 10
VICTORIA 78 52 69 47 70 / 20 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 84 53 71 52 72 / 10 0 0 0 10
ALICE 83 52 70 49 72 / 20 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 74 55 65 53 69 / 20 0 0 0 10
COTULLA 83 52 70 51 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 83 52 69 51 70 / 20 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 57 65 57 66 / 20 0 0 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
BF/80...SHORT TERM
TWH/91...LONG TERM
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