647
FXUS64 KCRP 212357
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
557 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
- EXTREME COLD WATCH SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO THE 20S SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
WARMER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH S TX ON SATURDAY BRINGING
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FREEZING RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FREEZING RAIN AND TEMPS GO, AS WELL AS, JUST HOW LOW TEMPS
DROP. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE 2-5 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY'S
RUNS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST OF S TX WILL DROP BELOW
32 DEGREES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH 20S FROM NORTHERN BRUSH
COUNTRY TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THE ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING.
WIND CHILLS ARE A BIG CONCERN DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR HYPOTHERMIA FOR
PEOPLE AND PETS EXPOSED TO THE COLD. THE WIND CHILLS WILL FEEL MUCH
COLDER THAN ACTUAL TEMPS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF S
TX, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS, BY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN MONDAY
MORNING. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WIND CHILLS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
30S. GIVEN THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES
OCCURRING, AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF S TX
BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE HIGHER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT STILL IN THE 20-30S.
THE HAZARD THAT IS ALSO VERY CONCERNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO ICY ROAD HAZARDS. THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS HAS HIGHER CHANCES
OF GETTING ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.10 OF AN INCH. THE REMAINDER OF
S TX HAS A LOWER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING ICE OF 0.01-0.03IN. THIS
AMOUNT COULD STILL POSE A HAZARD WITH FREEZING RAIN ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.
BASED ON A COUPLE OF MODEL SOUNDINGS, THERE COULD BE A MIX OF SLEET
AS WELL. CHANCES FOR SNOW OR SLEET ARE VERY LOW (<10%).
THE GFS DID SHOW LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE COTULLA AREA LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, BUT IT'S AN
OUTLIER. THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BISECT
SOUTH TEXAS, FAVORING MOISTURE TO POOL, CREATING LOW CEILINGS AND
FOG, WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE (50-80%) OF IMPACTING
ALI/CRP/VCT WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH NO NOTABLE RAIN CHANCES. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
WINDS DIMINISH TO A LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3) BREEZE WITH A VARIABLE
WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO A STRONG TO NEAR GALE (BF
6-7) FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A GALE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO HIGH
CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE COAST WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES FEELING WELL BELOW FREEZING DURING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 45 TO 80% FROM THE WEST TO THE COAST, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS. ERC VALUES AROUND THE 30-40TH PERCENTILE, RESULTING IN LOW
FIRE DANGER. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND,
WITH PASSAGE LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING. RH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE 35-50% BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 60 77 63 77 / 10 0 0 10
VICTORIA 56 76 59 76 / 10 0 0 30
LAREDO 50 79 62 81 / 0 0 0 10
ALICE 57 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 58 71 62 74 / 10 0 0 20
COTULLA 49 77 59 76 / 0 0 0 20
KINGSVILLE 58 79 62 80 / 10 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 63 72 65 73 / 10 0 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...EMF/94
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page