563  
FXUS64 KCRP 120529  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
1229 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2022  
 
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO  
TRACK TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS, WITH PWATS NEARING 2.2 INCHES. ISOLATED  
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK, ILL-  
DEFINED BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA, BUT ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER  
SUNDOWN.  
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE  
DEEPENS INTO A CUT OFF LOW. THE LOW SHOULD BE JUST TO THE  
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, KEEPING MOISTURE  
STREAMING INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE  
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO HELP PRODUCE  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG.  
THOUGH WE CAN HANDLE A LOT OF MOISTURE BEFORE WE FLOOD, HIGH  
RAINFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING (MAINLY  
PONDING OF ROADS AND LOW-LYING AREAS).  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2022  
 
COPIOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH PWATS  
AROUND 2.4" (99TH PERCENTILE, NEAR MAX) ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG  
INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW MOVES WESTWARD FROM THE GULF  
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE  
SUFFICIENT LIFT SUPPORT AND MIX WITH FAVORABLE WARM RAIN EFFICIENT  
PROCESSES: DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER (>12 KFT), SKINNY CAPE PROFILE OF <  
1000 J/KG, CLOUD LAYER MEAN WIND OF ONLY 10 KNOTS, AND A LOW CORFIDI  
UPSHEAR OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TO FAVOR TRAINING. DUE TO THE  
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS, HAVE KEPT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO  
THE WATERS. ALTHOUGH WPC HAS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL ERO,  
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1"  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL WHERE  
TRAINING DEVELOPS THAT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WITH  
PONDING ON ROADS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD  
GUIDANCE IS 4-6" ACROSS MAJORITY OF SOUTH TEXAS WITH LESSER 2-3"  
OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ANY RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL BUT IT'LL  
TAKE A WHOLE LOT MORE TO IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH HOW DRY  
SOILS HAVE BEEN. OTHER THAN GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WITH DOWNDRAFTS, NO  
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SHEAR REMAINS VERY MINIMAL AT LESS  
THAN 10 KNOTS. SPC ALSO HAS THE CWA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS  
THE AREA AS THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY MONDAY  
MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HAVE LEFT ISOLATED COVERAGE WITH  
GREATEST CONFIDENCE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS  
WHERE POSITIVE VORTICITY (ENERGY) LINGERS WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE  
LOW/TROUGH.  
 
RIDGING WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE LOW/TROUGH AND LEAD TO A DECREASE  
IN MOISTURE WITH PWATS DROPPING DOWN NEAR NORMAL (~1.75"). THE LACK  
OF LIFT SUPPORT WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AFTERNOON SEA  
BREEZE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS.  
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE NEXT MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW  
90S ALONG THE COAST TO 100-105 OUT OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO  
GRANDE PLAINS. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109 RETURN AS EARLY AS  
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2022  
 
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR  
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES 10-13Z FRIDAY, AND BRIEF MVFR  
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY,  
FOLLOWED BY WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BRIEF GUSTY WIND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2022  
 
WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE  
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT  
BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS COULD BE  
GUSTY IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE  
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE AND COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY BECOMING SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
MONDAY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 76 90 76 / 60 50 70 40  
VICTORIA 92 75 89 75 / 70 50 70 30  
LAREDO 100 79 97 77 / 50 30 50 40  
ALICE 97 74 93 74 / 70 40 70 40  
ROCKPORT 94 79 90 80 / 60 60 60 50  
COTULLA 102 79 97 78 / 50 30 50 30  
KINGSVILLE 95 75 91 75 / 70 40 70 40  
NAVY CORPUS 89 80 88 80 / 50 50 60 40  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...LS  
LONG TERM....EMF  
AVIATION...WC/87  
 
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