916  
FXUS64 KCRP 211140  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
640 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
GENERALLY MVFR CEILING WILL TRANSITION INTO VFR LEVELS BY LATE  
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE CYCLE  
AT ALL TERMINALS. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN  
ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY, BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR  
CHANCES DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME TO THE  
EXCEPTION OF SOME ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR POSSIBLE RAIN ACROSS  
THE COASTAL SITES EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 453 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018/  
 
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...  
 
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS  
TODAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE. THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY  
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED ALONG  
THE COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE  
LIMITED TODAY TO MAINLY THE WATERS, BUT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE  
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A  
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND  
THE APPROACH OF A COASTAL TROUGH BY MONDAY WILL BRING DEEP  
TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY  
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TOMORROW. BELOW NORMAL HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH  
LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.  
 
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH  
MONDAY AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER  
TODAY.  
 
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...  
 
WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL  
JETSTREAM PERSISTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THEN AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER  
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL RESULT IN DRYING TREND TOWARD THE END OF  
THE WEEK.  
 
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ALONG  
AND NORTH OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. DEEP  
LAYER MOISTURE, WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE  
NORMAL WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE COOL SFC BOUNDARY LAYER BY A SERIES  
OF S/W'S EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN COULD BE  
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE  
REMNANTS OF T.S. WILLA IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS  
BRINGING THE ADDED FOCUS FOR LIFT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTANTY  
ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK, THUS ITS DIFFICULT TO  
DETERMINE WHERE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED  
FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL BEND. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL  
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST ALLOWING  
DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS.  
 
MARINE...  
 
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM MONDAY IN  
RESPONSE TO A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.  
HOWEVER, SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND AN EXTENSION TO THE ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY  
ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND  
TUESDAY AS MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST ALONG THE  
TEXAS COAST NEAR AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE  
FLOW WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOMES NORTHERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY  
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. TIDE  
LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED ALONG THE MID TEXAS COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT DUE TO THE LONG E-NE FETCH ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  
ESTOFS MODEL INDICATES TIDES COULD EXCEED 2 FEET MSL DURING HIGH  
TIDE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 71 60 65 58 67 / 20 30 60 60 40  
VICTORIA 72 56 63 54 65 / 10 20 60 70 50  
LAREDO 67 58 60 54 61 / 40 40 60 60 60  
ALICE 70 58 63 54 64 / 20 30 60 60 50  
ROCKPORT 72 61 68 59 68 / 10 20 60 60 40  
COTULLA 70 57 60 53 61 / 10 30 70 70 60  
KINGSVILLE 71 59 64 57 66 / 30 40 60 50 40  
NAVY CORPUS 72 65 69 62 71 / 20 30 60 60 40  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...  
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR...  
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...  
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL  
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20  
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP  
CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
AN/88...AVIATION  
 
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