604  
FXUS64 KCRP 221755  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
1255 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
/18Z TAFS/ VFR THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT VSBYS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED  
TO DROP TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR LEVELS ONCE AGAIN FROM ALI-VCT AFTER 06Z,  
WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS TOWARD LRD-COT AROUND 12Z. INCREASED  
MOISTURE AND A DISTURBANCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED  
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT BEST CHANCES REMAIN TOWARD  
CRP AFTER 09Z. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY TOWARD  
LRD BETWEEN 22Z FRI THROUGH 02Z SAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL  
MONITOR SHOULD ACTIVITY MOVES CLOSER TO LRD. LIGHT NE WIND WILL  
GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF THE E-SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT 5-10KT  
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021/  
 
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING  
DENSE AT TIMES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.  
THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DENSITY ACROSS THOSE  
AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH THE FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATING AFTER  
SUNRISE. A WEAKNESS IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY  
AS A SUBTROPICAL JET MAX BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  
IN THE MID LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHERN  
MEXICO TODAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND  
THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
APART FROM THE SHORTWAVE, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY USHERING IN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. WITH  
PWATS AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND THE  
PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING  
OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING.  
 
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL HELP KEEP THE MAX TEMPERATURES AT  
BAY SOMEWHAT AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE  
BRUSH COUNTRY. WITH LESS CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW AND AN INCREASE IN  
ONSHORE FLOW, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S  
NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY.  
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD WITH MUCH OF  
THE AREA IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.  
 
THE P-ETSS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARGINAL COASTAL FLOODING EVENT FOR  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE THE LOWER FORECAST GUIDANCE  
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE P-ETSS, DECIDED TO ISSUE ANOTHER  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.  
 
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...  
 
ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PLAY HOST TO ONE FINAL, MEAGER  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
SLIGHT POPS STILL FAVOR OUR WATERS AND NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES  
NEAR AN AXIS OF RICHER PWATS AROUND 1.7", BUT ONCE THE SHORTWAVE  
PASSES LATER IN THE DAY THIS MOISTURE BEGINS TAPERING AND LEADS TO A  
DRY MONDAY UNDERNEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGING.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY, PWATS REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE  
NORMAL VALUES OF NEARLY 2" IN ADVANCE OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH  
SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO, A  
GOOD CHUNK OF THIS MOISTURE IS TIED TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAKING  
LANDFALL IN WESTERN MEXICO SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. 00Z  
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME  
SPREADING OVER THE REGION ANYTIME FROM LATE MONDAY (GFS) TO NEARLY  
24 HOURS LATER (ECMWF AND CMC). FEEL THE GFS MAY BE AN OUTLIER HERE  
GIVEN THE REMAINING MODELS PAINT A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO OF THE  
TROPICAL WAVE WAITING TO LIFT NORTHEAST UPON PHASING WITH THE  
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. REGARDLESS, THIS ELEVATED PLUME OF MOISTURE  
MAY ONLY RESULT IN THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR TUE-WED AS 850-700MB  
WINDS TEND TO VEER SW AND WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  
MODELS STILL FAVOR THIS TROUGH TO MERELY GRAZE S TX, SO ASCENT MAY  
NOT BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE NEGATIVES EVEN AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT  
SWEEPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DRY SURFACE RIDGING SPILLS SOUTH BEHIND  
THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS, BUT ONLY  
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS. LOWS MEANWHILE SHOULD BENEFIT THE MOST FROM  
THIS DRIER AIR AND LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
DAILY THREATS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INUNDATION VALUES AROUND 1 FOOT EACH  
DAY DURING HIGH TIDE.  
 
MARINE...  
 
A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME  
MORE MODERATE AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUING  
INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS  
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A  
FEW IMPULSES ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES BY TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 86 72 86 73 89 / 20 20 30 10 10  
VICTORIA 87 69 86 71 88 / 10 10 40 10 10  
LAREDO 90 71 92 73 95 / 20 20 0 0 0  
ALICE 88 68 89 69 92 / 20 10 20 10 0  
ROCKPORT 85 73 84 74 86 / 20 40 40 20 20  
COTULLA 91 71 93 72 96 / 10 10 0 0 0  
KINGSVILLE 88 69 89 71 91 / 20 20 20 10 10  
NAVY CORPUS 84 75 84 76 85 / 30 30 40 10 10  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT  
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS ISLANDS...  
CALHOUN ISLANDS...KLEBERG ISLANDS...NUECES ISLANDS.  
 
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
CB/85...AVIATION  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page