393
FXUS64 KCRP 071145
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
545 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING SATURDAY
- THREAT OF FOG CHANCES CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY OVER LAND AND THE
LOCAL WATERS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE RECENT WARM TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE YIELDING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (15+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER
WEATHER AND FINALLY BRINGING BACK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS
STRETCH OF COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE WE WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE BEST CHANCES
COMING ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS (20-30% CHANCE). WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, LOW RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
FOR THE COASTAL BEND AND COASTAL PLAINS (20-25% CHANCE). THE THREAT
FOR PATCHY TO DENSE DOG WILL CONTINUE OVER LAND AND THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
LIFR VIS HAS SET IN FOR ALL EASTERN TAF SITES, AND STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR COT AND LRD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID-DAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING EAST. FARTHER WEST, WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE
INTO THE EVENING. ALL SITES WILL KEEP A MODERATE WIND INTO THE
NIGHT WITH AN ELEVATED LLJ OFF THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROMOTE MORE
OF A STRATUS CONCERN FOR TONIGHT RATHER THAN FOG. EXPECT MAINLY
MVFR CIGS FOR ALL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO A FRESH BREEZE (BF 5)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN
FRIDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. A FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6)
NORTHERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THE THREAT FOR FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS THE BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO LOW TO MEDIUM LEVELS
(30-55%) FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS AS LOW AS 22-30%
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS. SUSTAINED WINDS THIS
WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS, THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 60-65TH PERCENTILE WHICH WOULD LIMIT
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT ELEVATED AT BEST. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
THAN FORECAST COULD INCREASE THE THREAT TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 68 84 68 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 82 65 82 66 / 0 0 10 0
LAREDO 86 65 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 86 64 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 78 68 79 68 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 85 63 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 85 66 86 67 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 77 70 78 69 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ230>234-
240-241-244-246-247.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...PH/83
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