166  
FXUS64 KCRP 101126  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
626 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
- POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS DUE TO MINOR COASTAL  
FLOODING, CONTINUES FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH  
ON SUNDAY.  
 
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY AT LEAST  
THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT POSSIBLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE P-ETSS IS  
SHOWING TIDE LEVELS REACHING AROUND 2.2FT MSL DURING TIMES OF HIGH  
TIDE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE  
FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL  
PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH IS  
STILL CONDUCIVE FOR TIDAL OVERFLOW. THERE IS CURRENTLY A COASTAL  
FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER ADVISORY WILL  
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  
SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING  
IS LESS CERTAIN DUE TO LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.  
HOWEVER, SWELL PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 8 SECONDS  
BY THEN WHICH MAY GIVE THE WATER MORE MOMENTUM TO REACH THE DUNES.  
 
AS FOR THE RIP CURRENT RISK, SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SHORE  
AND THE NEW MOON IS DAYS AWAY, THE RISK WILL BE KEPT AT MODERATE  
LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST  
AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY COMBINED WITH  
INCREASING SWELL PERIODS TO AROUND 8 SECONDS, THE RIP CURRENT RISK  
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO HIGH.  
 
AS FOR THE WEATHER, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AIR ACROSS  
S TX FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LEADING TO VERY LOW (<10%) CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH  
NEXT WEEK WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING. BUT, CAN NOT RULE  
OUT A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THE DRIER AIR WILL  
ALSO LEAD TO WARMER HIGHS AND COOLER LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE  
WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT  
WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS ONLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER 10 KNOTS  
OUT OF THE EAST AT CRP/ALI LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  
DRIER CONDITIONS, WITH ONLY MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF ALL  
TERMINALS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS POSES A  
RISK FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND COASTAL  
PLAINS. THEREFORE ADDED TEMPOS BETWEEN 09-12Z FOR VCT/ALI BUT  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
A NORTHEAST FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
FRIDAY MORNING THEN WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TO A MODERATE (BF4)FLOW  
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE  
EASTERLY SATURDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY AND WEAKEN TO A GENTLE TO  
MODERATE (BF 3-4) FLOW. VERY LOW (<10%) RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED  
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
 
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND WITH LOW RH VALUES AROUND 30%, MAINLY NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY  
TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HOWEVER, A GENERALLY WEAK NORTHEAST TO  
EAST WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREATS. MINIMUM RH  
VALUES INCREASE NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND  
USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS  
IS VERY LOW (<10%) THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 90 67 89 67 / 0 0 0 0  
VICTORIA 93 62 90 61 / 0 0 0 0  
LAREDO 94 67 93 67 / 10 0 0 0  
ALICE 93 64 93 62 / 0 0 0 0  
ROCKPORT 89 70 89 71 / 0 0 0 0  
COTULLA 95 65 94 64 / 0 0 0 0  
KINGSVILLE 91 64 90 62 / 10 0 0 0  
NAVY CORPUS 86 74 85 74 / 10 0 0 0  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ345-  
442-443-447.  
 
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ250-255-  
270-275.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...TE/81  
AVIATION...EMF/94  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page