203
FXUS64 KCRP 021838
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1238 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY.
PARTICULARLY OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A HOT (PARTICULARLY FOR JANUARY) DAY IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY OVER
SOUTH TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES (AT NOON) ALREADY TOPPING 80
EVERYWHERE APART FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS ANOMALOUS WARMTH
IS A RESULT OF BOTH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE
(~17C) AND EFFICIENT MIXING VIA WARM W-SW FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
THREATEN DAILY RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS. IN FACT TEMPERATURES
ARE SO WARM WE MAY EVEN SEA A RARE JANUARY SEA BREEZE PUSH THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A DRYLINE PROGRESSING FROM THE
OPPOSITE DIRECTION (WEST TO EAST) RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLE
DEWPOINT/RH GRADIENT NEAR THE COAST. THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE
DRY LINE PUSH WILL IMPACT WHETHER WE HAVE ANY OVERLAND FOG RISK
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FURTHER EAST PUSH WOULD LIKELY
KEEP LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND THUS THE FOG THREAT FOCUSED OVER THE
WATERS, WHILE A WEAKER PUSH WOULD RESULT IN FOG POTENTIAL FOR
PRIMARILY KLEBERG/NUECES COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN TODAY AS THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS ONLY 2-3C
COOLER THAN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND MIXING SHOULD REMAIN
EFFICIENT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE POSTFRONTAL HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING
IN EASTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BY MONDAY. THIS WARM S-SERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ALSO PREVAILING AS
MID-LVL RIDGING KEEPS THE STORM TRACK DISPLACED NORTH OF THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE
BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 80S (ROUGHLY 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) BY
MID-WEEK WITH A SIMILAR WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN US
TROUGHING AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS COULD USHER IN A
PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER (AT LEAST IN TERMS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGES) WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT AS USUAL AT
THESE TIME HORIZONS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
IS A LOW (15%) CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AT KALI/KCRP EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
CURRENT TAFS. SWRLY WINDS 10-15KTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS TERMINALS WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS EXPECTED AT KLRD/KCOT.
WINDS WILL THEN TREND LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE N-NW SATURDAY MID-MORNING BEHIND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH S-SWRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, BEFORE VEERING MORE
EASTERLY ON SUNDAY. A RETURN TO GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SERLY WINDS
IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
(30%) CHANCE OF SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A DRY LINE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP RH VALUES BELOW 30%
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MINRHS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 20% SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, AND
MODERATE ERCS (GENERALLY 50-75TH PERCENTILE) WE CAP THE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT ELEVATED. RHS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE
30% FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 58 83 54 73 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 54 81 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 56 85 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 56 84 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 61 78 55 70 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 54 84 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 56 85 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 62 78 60 70 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ270-275.
DISCUSSION...NC/91
AVIATION...NC/91
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