800
FXUS64 KCRP 280505
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1105 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022
NOW THAT THE SUN IS BACK, TEMPERATURES ARE OVER PERFORMING A BIT
TODAY AND WE'RE SEEING SOME LOCATIONS HITTING THE LOWER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ARE CREEPING BACK UPWARD TOO, WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
WILL KICK IN STRONG ON MONDAY. BEFORE THAT THOUGH, WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT, WILL EXPECT SOME RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP. A
REINFORCING PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT MAKES THE COVERAGE OF
FOG ATYPICAL. IF WE GET FOG AS FAR NORTH AS VICTORIA, IT WOULD
LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE NIGHT, THEN GET CLEARED OUT AS THE
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH, THIS AIRMASS MAY NOT HAVE
ENOUGH STRENGTH TO PUSH OUT THE SURFACE MOISTURE THUS ALLOWING FOG
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS DENSE FOG,
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY WITH THE CURVE BALL OF THE REINFORCING RIDGE COMING INTO
PLAY.
WE'LL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY, THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY DEVELOP FOR THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW TO RAPIDLY INCREASE
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE 60S AREA WIDE. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN
THE 70S, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS HITTING THE LOW 80S
AGAIN.
BY MONDAY NIGHT DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIKELY WIDESPREAD SEA FOG IN BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS THAT WILL PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS. DENSE FOG
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY MONDAY NIGHT AS
WELL, AND WE MAY SEE ONE OF THOSE NIGHT WHERE LOWS OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING WITH THE MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEA FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
- NEXT COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING
- GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO
START THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEA FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST, AS 70 DWPTS OVERRUN 60 DEGREE WATER TEMPS. LOW LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SOUTHWEST TUE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING TEMPS TO HEAT UP INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS (10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL COULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT,
BEFORE THE STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
OVER THE GULF WATERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDY AND COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN 60S. MAY NEED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL AREAS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND A GALE WATCH FOR MARINE AREAS, AS
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35KTS OR GREATER.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, A MID/UPPER LEVEL S/W WILL MOVE
INTO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INDUCING A MOIST RETURN FLOW OVER SOUTH
TEXAS WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE COAST. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY RESULTING IN
LIGHT RAIN WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. DWPTS ARE PROGGED TO
REACH THE 70S AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE SEA FOG ONCE
AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022
ALL SITES REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR ALI, WHERE SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS
DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO IFR CONDITIONS. FOG IS CONTINUING TO APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS ALI AND CRP, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE FOR FOG AT VCT HAS
DECREASED JUST A BIT. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
15/16Z RETURNING ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD RETURN TOMORROW NIGHT AROUND 04/05Z AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOWERED CEILINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT, THEN
EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. FLOW WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE
LEVELS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS MOISTURE FEEDS BACK INTO THE
REGION, SEA FOG WILL BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
IT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST AND
DECREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS BY THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 55 74 66 / 0 0 0 20
VICTORIA 77 46 75 62 / 0 0 0 20
LAREDO 79 50 78 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 81 52 78 65 / 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 74 55 74 67 / 0 0 0 20
COTULLA 80 45 77 61 / 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 81 54 77 66 / 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 75 61 73 68 / 0 10 0 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...JCP/84
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