286
FXUS64 KCRP 231921
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
121 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
- ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BY MIDWEEK, BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
AFTER A WET DAY AND A HALF, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, EXCEPT FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-55%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE DRYING OUT WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (20-40%)
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY. RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY KEPT RAIN CHANCES LOW BELOW 50%.
OUR NEXT CHANCE TO BREAK THIS STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT JUST IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, DESPITE RAIN CHANCES
TAPERING OFF, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THIS TAF CYCLE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR COULD
BE POSSIBLE AT VCT TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 10-13Z. GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
A FRESH BREEZE (BF 5) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DECREASING
TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4) MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WILL RETURN TO THE
GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF
TONIGHT BEFORE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAY ABOVE 40% ACROSS THE REGION,
EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHERE MINIMUM VALUES COULD DROP
THE THE 25-40% RANGE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. WHILE RH
VALUES WILL DROP THOSE TWO DAYS, ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN THE 25-50TH PERCENTILE WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 85 68 85 / 0 10 10 10
VICTORIA 67 85 63 84 / 10 40 50 10
LAREDO 72 86 64 87 / 0 10 0 10
ALICE 67 89 64 87 / 0 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 72 84 70 84 / 10 20 30 10
COTULLA 69 83 58 86 / 10 20 10 0
KINGSVILLE 69 88 66 87 / 0 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 75 82 72 81 / 0 10 20 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...JCP/84
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