949
FXUS64 KCRP 281124
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
624 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR SOUTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- LOW RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID-WEEK AND MODERATE CHANCES LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONT
- MARGINAL THREAT (1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH STALLING JUST TO THE NORTH. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT YET ON THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THIS FRONT. SOME
VORTICITY FROM ASSOCIATE SHORTWAVES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SUPPRESS
THE RIDGE, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO SAG FURTHER SOUTH.
EVERYTHING WILL HINGE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO AND IF IT
DOES, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION WILL BE POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY, SPC HAS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
SOUTH TEXAS INCLUDED A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE FORECAST CYCLES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN
TODAY AND POTENTIALLY TOMORROW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
90S AND LOWER 100S OUT WEST. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100-110
SPECIFICALLY IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND. WE STRONGLY ENCOURAGE THE PRACTICE OF HEAT SAFETY IN
THESE CONDITIONS. TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND REMEMBER TO STAY
HYDRATED, CHECK THOSE BACKSEATS, AND AVOID LONG EXPOSURE IN THESE
TEMPERATURES. FOR MORE INFORMATION BE SURE TO CHECK OUT
WEATHER.GOV/HEATSAFETY.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AS A NEAR
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE WEST TEXAS REGION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO CONVERGE ALONG THE FRONT SURGING PWATS AROUND 2.0" WHICH WILL
LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND 20-60%. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION, THOUGH WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WE CAN
EXPECT BRIEF COOL DOWN FROM ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND
NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING BUT CIGS WILL
BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT HAZE/SMOKE WILL ONCE
AGAIN RESULT IN 5-6SM VIS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR MOST SITES.
TONIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH MAINLY MVFR
CIGS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM AT COT TERMINAL,
BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW (BF 3-4) IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST
THIS WEEKEND AND INCREASE WINDS TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE (BF 6-7).
ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED DESPITE THE HOT TEMPERATURES
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS SHIFTING OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS AND UPDATE AS
NECESSARY IF ANYTHING CHANGES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 89 74 89 73 / 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 91 73 91 69 / 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 100 76 99 74 / 0 0 0 10
ALICE 96 74 96 72 / 10 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 86 76 86 74 / 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 100 76 97 72 / 10 0 10 20
KINGSVILLE 93 74 93 72 / 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 84 76 84 75 / 10 10 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...PH/83
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