916
FXUS64 KCRP 211140
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
640 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION
GENERALLY MVFR CEILING WILL TRANSITION INTO VFR LEVELS BY LATE
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE CYCLE
AT ALL TERMINALS. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY, BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR
CHANCES DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME TO THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR POSSIBLE RAIN ACROSS
THE COASTAL SITES EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 453 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED TODAY TO MAINLY THE WATERS, BUT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THE APPROACH OF A COASTAL TROUGH BY MONDAY WILL BRING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY TOMORROW. BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM PERSISTS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THEN AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL RESULT IN DRYING TREND TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE, WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE COOL SFC BOUNDARY LAYER BY A SERIES
OF S/W'S EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN COULD BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
REMNANTS OF T.S. WILLA IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
BRINGING THE ADDED FOCUS FOR LIFT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTANTY
ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK, THUS ITS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHERE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL BEND. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST ALLOWING
DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM MONDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND AN EXTENSION TO THE ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST NEAR AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE
FLOW WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOMES NORTHERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. TIDE
LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED ALONG THE MID TEXAS COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE LONG E-NE FETCH ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.
ESTOFS MODEL INDICATES TIDES COULD EXCEED 2 FEET MSL DURING HIGH
TIDE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 71 60 65 58 67 / 20 30 60 60 40
VICTORIA 72 56 63 54 65 / 10 20 60 70 50
LAREDO 67 58 60 54 61 / 40 40 60 60 60
ALICE 70 58 63 54 64 / 20 30 60 60 50
ROCKPORT 72 61 68 59 68 / 10 20 60 60 40
COTULLA 70 57 60 53 61 / 10 30 70 70 60
KINGSVILLE 71 59 64 57 66 / 30 40 60 50 40
NAVY CORPUS 72 65 69 62 71 / 20 30 60 60 40
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
AN/88...AVIATION
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