604
FXUS64 KCRP 221755
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1255 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021
AVIATION
/18Z TAFS/ VFR THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT VSBYS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR LEVELS ONCE AGAIN FROM ALI-VCT AFTER 06Z,
WITH POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS TOWARD LRD-COT AROUND 12Z. INCREASED
MOISTURE AND A DISTURBANCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT BEST CHANCES REMAIN TOWARD
CRP AFTER 09Z. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY TOWARD
LRD BETWEEN 22Z FRI THROUGH 02Z SAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL
MONITOR SHOULD ACTIVITY MOVES CLOSER TO LRD. LIGHT NE WIND WILL
GRADUALLY TURN OUT OF THE E-SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT 5-10KT
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2021/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING
DENSE AT TIMES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DENSITY ACROSS THOSE
AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH THE FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATING AFTER
SUNRISE. A WEAKNESS IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
AS A SUBTROPICAL JET MAX BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
IN THE MID LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRAVERSING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO TODAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
APART FROM THE SHORTWAVE, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY USHERING IN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING
OFF BY SATURDAY EVENING.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL HELP KEEP THE MAX TEMPERATURES AT
BAY SOMEWHAT AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY. WITH LESS CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW AND AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE FLOW, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S
NEAR THE COAST AND THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
THE P-ETSS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARGINAL COASTAL FLOODING EVENT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE THE LOWER FORECAST GUIDANCE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE P-ETSS, DECIDED TO ISSUE ANOTHER
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TODAY TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PLAY HOST TO ONE FINAL, MEAGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SLIGHT POPS STILL FAVOR OUR WATERS AND NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES
NEAR AN AXIS OF RICHER PWATS AROUND 1.7", BUT ONCE THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES LATER IN THE DAY THIS MOISTURE BEGINS TAPERING AND LEADS TO A
DRY MONDAY UNDERNEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY, PWATS REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES OF NEARLY 2" IN ADVANCE OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO, A
GOOD CHUNK OF THIS MOISTURE IS TIED TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN WESTERN MEXICO SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. 00Z
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SPREADING OVER THE REGION ANYTIME FROM LATE MONDAY (GFS) TO NEARLY
24 HOURS LATER (ECMWF AND CMC). FEEL THE GFS MAY BE AN OUTLIER HERE
GIVEN THE REMAINING MODELS PAINT A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE WAITING TO LIFT NORTHEAST UPON PHASING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. REGARDLESS, THIS ELEVATED PLUME OF MOISTURE
MAY ONLY RESULT IN THICKER MID/HIGH CLOUDS FOR TUE-WED AS 850-700MB
WINDS TEND TO VEER SW AND WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
MODELS STILL FAVOR THIS TROUGH TO MERELY GRAZE S TX, SO ASCENT MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE NEGATIVES EVEN AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. DRY SURFACE RIDGING SPILLS SOUTH BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS, BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS. LOWS MEANWHILE SHOULD BENEFIT THE MOST FROM
THIS DRIER AIR AND LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
DAILY THREATS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INUNDATION VALUES AROUND 1 FOOT EACH
DAY DURING HIGH TIDE.
MARINE...
A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE MODERATE AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
FEW IMPULSES ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 86 72 86 73 89 / 20 20 30 10 10
VICTORIA 87 69 86 71 88 / 10 10 40 10 10
LAREDO 90 71 92 73 95 / 20 20 0 0 0
ALICE 88 68 89 69 92 / 20 10 20 10 0
ROCKPORT 85 73 84 74 86 / 20 40 40 20 20
COTULLA 91 71 93 72 96 / 10 10 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 88 69 89 71 91 / 20 20 20 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 84 75 84 76 85 / 30 30 40 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS ISLANDS...
CALHOUN ISLANDS...KLEBERG ISLANDS...NUECES ISLANDS.
GM...NONE.
CB/85...AVIATION
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