778
FXUS64 KCRP 142306
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
506 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 503 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
- ISOLATED TO AREAS OF FOG SATURDAY MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
1/4 MILE OR LESS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS/VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MODERATE (40-60%) CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN TO THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND WED/THU NEXT WEEK.
LOWER CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS FRIDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS WHERE VISIBILITY AT KVCT, LIVE OAK COUNTY AIRPORT AND
KALI DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION
TODAY WILL LEAD TO A 25% CHANCE OF AREAS OF FOG WITH < 1 MILE
VISIBILITIES AND PATCHY DENSE FOG 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN SOME SPOTS
FOR SATURDAY MORNING. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS) FOR FOG
MAY BE NEEDED.
OWING TO A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL HIGH TO OUR SOUTH OVER EASTERN
MEXICO, RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER SOUTH TEXAS PROMOTING ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SUMMER WITH LOW TO MID 90S RETURNING TO LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH AND MAY REACH RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN LAREDO.
A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM THIS PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT TRACKS. CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA
NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WITH THE
FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
RESULTING IN LOW END MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AROUND
MID-WEEK. TIMING AND MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH THIS FAR OUT
AND CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE LIKELY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND LIGHT
WINDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING MVFR
VISIBILITY FOR ALI AND VCT WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR LIFR VISIBILITY
FROM 11Z-15Z. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR LRD AND COT FOR
MVFR CEILINGS SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
LOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6)
AROUND MIDWEEK. EXPECTING HEIGHTENED WINDS/SEAS IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING FRONT, POSSIBLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THIS
TIME-FRAME. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AROUND MID-WEEK,
PEAKING TO A MODERATE 50-60% CHANCE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
DESPITE ERC VALUES NEAR THE 85TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS, LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 MPH OR LESS COMBINED
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES 35-40% OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL
PLAINS WILL NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT FRONT, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 84 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 58 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 65 87 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 60 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 67 81 67 82 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 61 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 61 86 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 70 80 70 81 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...LS/77
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