563
FXUS64 KCRP 120529
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1229 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2022
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRACK TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS, WITH PWATS NEARING 2.2 INCHES. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK, ILL-
DEFINED BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA, BUT ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER
SUNDOWN.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DEEPENS INTO A CUT OFF LOW. THE LOW SHOULD BE JUST TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, KEEPING MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO HELP PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG.
THOUGH WE CAN HANDLE A LOT OF MOISTURE BEFORE WE FLOOD, HIGH
RAINFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING (MAINLY
PONDING OF ROADS AND LOW-LYING AREAS).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2022
COPIOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH PWATS
AROUND 2.4" (99TH PERCENTILE, NEAR MAX) ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG
INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW MOVES WESTWARD FROM THE GULF
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT SUPPORT AND MIX WITH FAVORABLE WARM RAIN EFFICIENT
PROCESSES: DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER (>12 KFT), SKINNY CAPE PROFILE OF <
1000 J/KG, CLOUD LAYER MEAN WIND OF ONLY 10 KNOTS, AND A LOW CORFIDI
UPSHEAR OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TO FAVOR TRAINING. DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED REASONS, HAVE KEPT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO
THE WATERS. ALTHOUGH WPC HAS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS IN A MARGINAL ERO,
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1"
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL WHERE
TRAINING DEVELOPS THAT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WITH
PONDING ON ROADS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS 4-6" ACROSS MAJORITY OF SOUTH TEXAS WITH LESSER 2-3"
OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ANY RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL BUT IT'LL
TAKE A WHOLE LOT MORE TO IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH HOW DRY
SOILS HAVE BEEN. OTHER THAN GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WITH DOWNDRAFTS, NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SHEAR REMAINS VERY MINIMAL AT LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SPC ALSO HAS THE CWA IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY MONDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HAVE LEFT ISOLATED COVERAGE WITH
GREATEST CONFIDENCE OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WHERE POSITIVE VORTICITY (ENERGY) LINGERS WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW/TROUGH.
RIDGING WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE LOW/TROUGH AND LEAD TO A DECREASE
IN MOISTURE WITH PWATS DROPPING DOWN NEAR NORMAL (~1.75"). THE LACK
OF LIFT SUPPORT WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE POPS.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE NEXT MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW
90S ALONG THE COAST TO 100-105 OUT OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109 RETURN AS EARLY AS
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2022
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES 10-13Z FRIDAY, AND BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BRIEF GUSTY WIND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2022
WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY BECOMING SCATTERED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 76 90 76 / 60 50 70 40
VICTORIA 92 75 89 75 / 70 50 70 30
LAREDO 100 79 97 77 / 50 30 50 40
ALICE 97 74 93 74 / 70 40 70 40
ROCKPORT 94 79 90 80 / 60 60 60 50
COTULLA 102 79 97 78 / 50 30 50 30
KINGSVILLE 95 75 91 75 / 70 40 70 40
NAVY CORPUS 89 80 88 80 / 50 50 60 40
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...WC/87
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