710
FXUS64 KCRP 141139
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
539 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
- DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
DRIER AIR AND A BRIEF COOLDOWN
- FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON
- ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY, REINFORCING
COOLER TEMPERATURES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LARGE-WCALE ASCENT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
TX, IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH PRECIP CHANCES NEAR ZERO. THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS WILL BE A SHIFT TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS, DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 30S AND A BRIEF/MODEST COOLDOWN IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY WILL REACH THE MID 70S,
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BEHIND TODAY'S FRONT, EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER, GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MID-LEVEL LOW,
BRINGING ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL KEEP
SATURDAY'S HIGH IN THE MID 60S. ASIDE FROM THE COOLER CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY, DAILY HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEXT WORK-WEEK, WHEN A PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS GEFS MEAN PWAT VALUES
EXCEEDING THE 75TH PERCENTILE, SUPPORTING A LOW 20-30% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN BY
A COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION, ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A
POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS LIFTING MECHANISMS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON (WEDNESDAY).
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING. AROUND
17-19Z THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION INCREASING WINDS AND
SHIFTING THE DIRECTION OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 20-30 KNOTS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COME DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) WESTERLY BREEZE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND
INCREASE TO A STRONG TO NEAR GALE (BF 6-7) THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
(BF 3-4) THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A GENTLE TO
MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHERLY BREEZE RETURNS EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND OCCASIONALLY FRESH TO STRONG
(BF 5-6). LOW RAIN CHANCES (20%) SATURDAY WILL RETURN MONDAY THEN
INCREASE TO A MODERATE (35-45%) CHANCE BY TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE THIS WEEKEND,
KEEPING MINIMUM RH VALUES LESS THAN 30% FOR MUCH OF THE INLAND
REGIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT APPROACHING THE
20-25 MPH RANGE AND LOW RH VALUES COMBINED WITH ELEVATED ERC VALUES
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (RFD) IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FROM 6
AM TO 6 PM. ANOTHER RFD MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
MOST LIKELY DAYS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 74 44 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 72 37 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 75 42 68 45 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 75 41 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 73 45 64 51 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 75 40 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 75 42 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 72 50 62 54 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ231-232-236-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR GMZ250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...NP/92
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