043
FXUS64 KCRP 200553
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1153 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
- TRANSITION TO WARMER, WETTER PATTERN MIDWEEK
- STRONG COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND BRINGS RETURN TO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES
- LOW-CONFIDENCE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
THIS FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TRANSITION TOWARD
WARMER WEATHER AND A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE WORKWEEK,
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TODAY WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAINFALL WITH A LOW TO MODERATE (30-40%) CHANCE AREA WIDE
BY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOVER IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF RAIN 40-70% CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WHILE PRECIP IS LIKELY, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 0.05"-0.25". MOISTURE QUICKLY TAPERS OFF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO A STEADY WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID
70S TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY. NEXT WE'LL LOOK AHEAD TO OUR NEXT STRONG
FRONT AND RETURN OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY:
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THIS
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS, BRINGING A RETURN OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S APPEAR LIKELY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK (SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS) ACROSS THE REGION.
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD, THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. A
DISTURBANCE OVER THE EASTER PAC/BAJA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT
DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
CRITICAL QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER AROUND
LONG ENOUGH TO OVERLAP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SUB-FREEZING AIR. WHILE
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW GIVEN WE ARE STILL ABOUT A WEEK OUT. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE AS FUTURE MODEL RUNS GIVE US MORE
RESOLUTION AND AS MORE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO CAPTURE THE EVENT.
RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR A SHARP RETURN TO WINTER CONDITIONS AND
FOR POSSIBLE FROZEN PRECIP THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
CRP TAF FROM 18Z-00Z, WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
A MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL VEER ONSHORE
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO A GENTLE (BF-3) BREEZE WEDNESDAY. FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT BECOMING A NORTHERLY STRONG TO
NEAR GALE (BF 6-7) BY SATURDAY, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODERATE RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY PEAK TO A HIGH (80-90%) CHANCE BY
WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE BE MUCH HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE REGION FROM THE RETURN
OF ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. RH VALUES OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 45 UP TO 80% FROM
THE WEST TO THE COAST RESPECTIVELY, ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS. ERC VALUES IN THE 70TH PERCENTILE WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE TO AROUND THE 30-40TH PERCENTILE, WHILE THE FORECASTED
FIRE DANGER IS LOW. OUR NEXT FRONT IS THIS WEEKEND AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS LIKELY TO BE ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 68 60 73 59 / 30 30 50 10
VICTORIA 64 55 73 56 / 10 20 60 20
LAREDO 65 57 74 53 / 20 30 20 0
ALICE 68 56 75 55 / 10 20 40 10
ROCKPORT 67 59 70 58 / 30 30 60 20
COTULLA 63 54 72 53 / 10 20 10 0
KINGSVILLE 68 58 74 56 / 20 30 40 10
NAVY CORPUS 68 63 70 62 / 30 30 60 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...LS/77
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