487
FXUS64 KCRP 172302
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
502 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 450 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK, THEN
COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (20-40%) ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY, NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE
(30-60%) ACROSS S TX ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLY NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS TX
HAS LED TO VERY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM LAREDO TO VICTORIA
CROSSROADS THIS MORNING, BUT A MAJORITY OF S TX WILL REMAIN DRY.
THERE IS A LOW (5-20%) CHANCE OF NORTH MOVING LIGHT "STREAMER"
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY
TO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS ON WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 20-35%
CHANCE OF OCCURRING. THIS IS DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION.
RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
COMBINATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE (PWATS 1.7-1.9 INCHES), AND AN
APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL TX BY THURSDAY, BUT MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER THIS BOUNDARY IS A PRE-
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR AN ACTUAL COLD FRONT, AND THERE ARE TIMING
DISCREPANCIES WITH THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO S TX VARYING SOMETIME
BETWEEN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRENGTH OF THE COLD
FRONT ALSO VARIES BETWEEN THE MODELS. THUS, LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK WITH RESPECT TO STORM CHANCES AND
TIMING ISSUES.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, IS A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO S TX LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND STALLS, THEN A SECOND SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH CAA SOMETIME FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE SWINGS ACROSS TX. RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK BETTER THU/THU
NIGHT WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO HIGHER INSTABILITY AND
DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. CONDITIONS LOOK A TAD MORE STABLE WITH
THE SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE/COLD FRONT.
AS FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, A LOT OF THINGS NEED TO COME
TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT
THERE WILL BE ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. AS FOR ANY FLOODING, THE
GROUND IS DRY AND WE CAN USE THE RAIN, THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. CAN NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING DUE
TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND/OR STORMS SITTING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY.
A LOW TO MEDIUM (15-35%) CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 450 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY LIGHT
FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, BUT MORE PATCHY AND LIGHT
WITH VISIBILITY BETWEEN 3-5SM, MAINLY FOR VCT TO ALI. THIS IS DUE
TO MORE EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 10-15Z TUESDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS TUESDAY, BUT INCREASING
TO FRESH TO STRONG WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK, WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-60%).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES REMAINING
ABOVE 40% WILL HELP LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID WEEK AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH S TX SOMETIME
BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH ERC VALUES AND DRY
FUELS ARE STILL IN PLACE, SO CAUTION IS URGED AROUND ANY SPARKS OR
OPEN FLAMES. RAIN WILL INCREASE THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 70 86 71 86 / 0 0 10 20
VICTORIA 66 87 66 86 / 0 10 10 40
LAREDO 72 91 72 92 / 0 0 0 10
ALICE 67 90 68 89 / 0 0 10 20
ROCKPORT 71 83 72 83 / 0 10 10 20
COTULLA 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 10 20
KINGSVILLE 68 89 69 88 / 0 0 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 73 82 74 81 / 0 10 20 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...LS/77
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