202
FXUS64 KCRP 290606
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1206 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1205 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
- NEAR FREEZING WIND CHILLS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WE'VE BEEN FOCUSED ON THE PAST FEW DAYS
REMAINS ON TRACK TO SURGE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7
AM SUNDAY. AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) SEVERE RISK IS
INTACT. MUCAPE CLIMBS TO 1500-2000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
KNOTS AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM, LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE THREAT OF HIGH RAIN
RATES WITH STORMS BOTH AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT, ALSO POSES A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREA.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF, KEEPING THE BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE TEXAS
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL PVA TO
CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT.
NONETHELESS, PWAT VALUES WILL EXTEND WELL ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN 1.5-
2.0" AND COINCIDE WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL PVA DOWNSTREAM OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS, ALLOWING FOR A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S MONDAY AND LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH CIGS
REMAINING MARGINALLY BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH 12Z. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED TOWARD THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS, WITH ISOLATED STORMS BETWEEN 18Z-00Z, WITH A MORE LINEAR
LINE OF CONVECTION (LEADING TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH STORM OUTFLOWS AND CHANCES FOR HAIL) WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE BETWEEN 02Z-06Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SSE'LY TODAY AT NEAR
20 KTS GUSTING TO 35 KTS. WHILE OUTSIDE OF THIS TAF CYCLE, WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO BE MORE NE'LY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEYOND
06Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TO FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY RETURN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS IN THE WAKE. OFFSHORE WINDS FALL TO MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5)
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING WEDNESDAY. LOW RAIN
CHANCES TODAY WILL INCREASE TO A HIGH, 60-90% CHANCE, TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MID TO LATE NEXT WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% THROUGH NEXT WORK
WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWING
A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A BRIEF LULL IN
RAIN CHANCES AFTER A REINFORCING SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES
RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE ARE NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 53 59 44 / 20 60 40 60
VICTORIA 79 47 54 40 / 50 80 30 40
LAREDO 82 53 59 46 / 0 20 30 50
ALICE 83 51 57 41 / 10 50 40 60
ROCKPORT 80 54 60 46 / 40 80 50 60
COTULLA 80 51 56 42 / 10 20 10 40
KINGSVILLE 82 53 60 43 / 20 50 40 50
NAVY CORPUS 79 57 63 51 / 20 70 60 60
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...AE/82
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