509
FXUS64 KCRP 042352
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
552 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- FOG AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH NEXT COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FROM THE LAST PACKAGE.
RETURN OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT. LATEST HREF KEEPS LOW CHANCES (20-40%) OF FOG LESS THAN A
MILE VISIBILITY OVER INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY, WITH
GREATER CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
AS HIGH AS I WAS YESTERDAY.
WARM ONSHORE FLOW WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP
RAIN-FREE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTACT THROUGH THURSDAY,
BEFORE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY. WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OUR SEA FOG POTENTIAL
AS CURRENT SHALLOW SSTS HOVER FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTERACT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH MIDWEEK. VERY LOW
(10-20%) RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS S TX AFTER 06Z LEADING TO
PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR BETWEEN
10-16Z MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GET TO AS SOME MODELS SHOW DENSE FOG MORE
WIDESPREAD MAINLY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WITH S TX MORE PATCHY
WITH HIGHER VSBYS. OTHER MODELS INDICATE DENSEST FOG (1/4-1/2SM)
AROUND THE ALI SITE EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHILE THE OTHER S TX TAF
SITES VSBYS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1SM. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, BUT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WHICH MAY LEAD MORE TO LOW STRATUS RATHER THAN
FOG. COULD SEE A SCENARIO WHERE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AFTER
06Z, BUT IMPROVE TO MVFR/IFR ONCE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
STRENGTHEN AFTER 08-10Z. THUS, LEADING TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF
FOG POTENTIAL. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RESUME BY MID TO LATE
MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
A GENTLE (BF 3) EASTERLY BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED TODAY AND WILL SHIFT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO A MODERATE (BF 4) FLOW
TONIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO A FRESH
TO STRONG (BF 5-6) ONSHORE FLOW BY MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, SHIFTING WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
DAILY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB TO THE UPPER 60S AND
SHALLOW WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. LOW (20-30%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30% THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, LEADING TO A
DRIER PERIOD WITH RH VALUES RANGING AS LOW AS 15-30% NEXT WEEKEND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 60 79 65 83 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 52 78 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 60 82 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 56 81 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 60 76 65 77 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 55 78 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 58 82 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 63 75 67 77 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...TE/81
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