863
FXUS64 KCRP 081904
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
104 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- ONE MORE WARM AND MUGGY DAY IN STORE ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
WINDS TODAY HAVE BEEN SOMETHING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. I'M HAPPY TO
REPORT THAT AS WE CONTINUE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE
PEAK WINDS WILL START TRENDING DOWNWARD. AS SUCH, I WILL ALLOW THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6PM TONIGHT. WITH LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS LOOKING TO SET UP ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS
FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IF DENSE
FOG ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SO I WILL PASS
ALONG TO OUR EVENING CREW TO KEEP MONITORING WHAT THE EVENING
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD TO.
AS OF THIS FORECAST, THE FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT MAKING IT TO THE
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE WINDS WON'T START PICKING UP
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES WILL LIKELY WARRANT AT MINIMUM A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, BUT A
GALE PRODUCT MAY ALSO BE NEEDED. WILL DISCUSS THIS WITH THE
EVENING FORECASTER. IT MAY ALSO BE THE CASE WHERE THE BARRIER
ISLANDS AND COASTAL ZONES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR A WIND
ADVISORY, THOUGH I WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS DECISION TILL THE NEXT
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS
UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY, WITH A MARGINAL
ONLY CLIPPING VICTORIA COUNTY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST CAMS, MOST OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS IN SE/E TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE'LL STILL KEEP MONITORING THE TRENDS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WATERS AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
SATURDAY MORNING'S TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE WILL GENERALLY BE THE
SAME TEMPERATURE EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON THANKS TO
THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THIS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOW END CHANCES (20-30%) OF DRIZZLE/SHOWERS
THOUGH ANY MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATION WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. SUNDAY MORNING'S LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS, WITH SOME UPPER 30S FOR LOWS MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT DROPPING TOO
MUCH COLDER THAN THIS FOR BOTH NIGHTS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
MORE OF A CONCERN ON SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNINGS (DROPPING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S). WHILE THIS OVERRUNNING PATTERN IS IN PLAY THIS
WEEKEND, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, LOW RH VALUES AND DRY FUELS WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS (SEE FIRE DISCUSSION
BELOW), SO ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
VIRGA BEFORE ANY MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE A CHANCE TO
COLLECT.
WE REMAIN IN THIS COOL (BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL) PATTERN THROUGH
MID-WEEK WHEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE 70S. THE LATEST UPDATE OF THE
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CPC SHOWS A COLDER PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, BUT PLACING TEXAS IN NEAR-NORMAL
PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURE AND POSSIBLY THE RETURN OF 60S FOR
HIGHS. WHEW!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
S'LY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN DECREASING TO 15-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER 06Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MUGGY SURFACE LAYER, PATCHY FOG
AND A LOW STRATUS DECK WILL DECREASE CONDITIONS TO MVFR. IN DENSER
FOG, VIS REDUCTION WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT (BF 4) WITH SEAS
DECREASING TO 4-5 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS
AT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE STRENGTH (BF 6-7) AND SEAS INCREASING TO 8-10
FT, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT AT MINIMUM A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS WITH SEAS
DECREASING TO (2-3 FT BY MONDAY NIGHT). WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES TO 50-70%, THEN
REMAINING AT 20-30% DAILY CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A NORTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 30-35% ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE WEAKER (UNDER 10 KTS). A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ONLY PORTIONS OF
WEBB COUNTRY DROPPING TO 25-30% MIN RH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION, MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH WIDESPREAD MIN RH'S SATURDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON
DROPPING TO 20-30% ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS AND 30-40% FOR COASTAL
COUNTIES. COUPLED WITH 20 FT WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND
INCREASING ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC) VALUES RANGING BETWEEN THE
50TH-75TH PERCENTILES, THIS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE RISK, WITH AN
ELEVATED RISK HIGHLIGHTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRIEST OF THE AIRMASS
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 10-25%
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND NEAR 30% ALONG THE COAST. ERCS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 70TH-80TH PERCENTILE ALSO LEADING TO
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY WITH ANY FASTER TREND IN WIND SPEEDS
OR LOWER RH VALUES. AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL BRING CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, BUT GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE, ANY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO A FEW DROPS AT BEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 81 55 63 / 0 10 30 20
VICTORIA 65 80 50 62 / 10 40 40 20
LAREDO 64 82 52 62 / 0 0 10 20
ALICE 64 84 52 65 / 0 10 20 20
ROCKPORT 68 77 54 66 / 0 30 40 30
COTULLA 61 81 49 63 / 0 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 65 84 55 65 / 0 10 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 69 77 57 65 / 0 20 40 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ231-232-
236-237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...AE/82
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