800
FXUS64 KCRP 182038
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
338 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THIS WEEK
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
- MARGINAL RISK OF (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FLASH FLOODING DUE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) THURSDAY FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS SINCE OUR LAST RAIN EVENT, A WETTER
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A SERIES OF REPEATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL PASS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A MORE POTENT TROUGH OR
CUTOFF MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND MOVES
EASTWARD INTO TEXAS. NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION OF THESE DISTURBANCES, WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE
THINGS COULD STILL CHANGE, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR
2-3" ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND 1-2"
ACROSS THE THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. HIGH END
RAINFALL TOTALS (10% CHANCE OF REACHING THESE VALUES) WILL BE 4-5"
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND 3-4"
ACROSS THE THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. THEREFORE,
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS
FOR A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF FLASH FLOODING FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OR 4)
FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS THURSDAY. APART FROM THAT, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING STRONG WINDS AND SECONDARY HAZARD
OF LARGE HAIL.
PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WITH SWELL PERIODS OF 7-8 SECONDS
WARRANTS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, CAUSING DANGEROUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER THREAT FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING DURING HIGH TIDE.
WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WEBCAMS WITH HOW MUCH WAVE RUNUP
WE GET, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE LACK OF BUOY OBSERVATIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
MVFR CEILINGS RETURN AROUND 04-07Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 13Z. THESE
STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 04-06Z RELAXING TO ABOUT 12-14 KNOTS OVER NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RE- STRENGTHEN TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 13-16Z WITH
GUSTS TO 25-27 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
A FRESH BREEZE (BF 5) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL CAUSE A CONTINUATION OF OUR CURRENT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WINDS WILL RELAX TO A MODERATE BREEZE (BF 4) TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MEDIUM
CHANCES (50-60%) FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO HIGHER CHANCES (60-
80%) SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, CAUSING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO STAY ABOVE 40%. LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY,
INCREASE TO A MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THIS
WEEKEND
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 90 79 89 / 20 10 60 30
VICTORIA 77 91 75 88 / 10 10 60 50
LAREDO 79 99 76 94 / 20 10 60 40
ALICE 79 94 77 91 / 20 10 60 30
ROCKPORT 80 90 79 89 / 20 0 60 30
COTULLA 78 97 74 91 / 20 0 60 50
KINGSVILLE 80 92 78 90 / 20 10 60 30
NAVY CORPUS 81 87 80 87 / 10 10 60 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...JCP/84
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