264
FXUS64 KCRP 132329
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
529 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
- AFTER TODAY, MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES UNTIL NEXT WEEK
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND COLD
FRONT
- WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
LIGHT RAIN AND VIRGA EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES
TO LINGER IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. I DO EXPECT MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THIS LIGHT RAIN TO COME TO STOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS LIMITING
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR MORNING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 40S AND HIGHS TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 20-30% WITH NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AND ABOVE NORMAL ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE FRONT, WITH BOTH ECENS/GEFS SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA WHILE THE CMC HAS THE FRONT PLOW
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES AND ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT
ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT, DON'T EXPECT GREAT RAIN CHANCES WITH
PWAT VALUES JUST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FRONT, BRINGING PWAT
VALUES TO THE 90-99TH PERCENTILE AND RAIN CHANCES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MODEL DISCREPANCIES BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH THIS FRONT
AND THE MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF OF NORTHEAST CANADA.
HIGHS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S TO 70S AND LOWS
IN THE 40S THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK, WARMING INTO THE 50S EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EVEN AS A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THEN MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, WINDS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL SHIFT FROM
THE NORTH AND GUST UP TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ARE VIRTUALLY ZERO WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG AND
SHIFT NORTHERLY (BF 5-6) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS, LEADING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE (BF 3-4) THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A GENTLE
TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHERLY BREEZE RETURNS FRIDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND OCCASIONALLY FRESH (BF-5).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR (MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES LESS THAN 30%) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH, WHEN COMBINED WITH
ABOVE NORMAL ERC VALUES, COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. FOLLOWING, LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT OUR FIRE
WEATHER THREAT AND KEEP US WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 46 75 44 65 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 43 73 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 45 75 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 44 77 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 51 73 46 65 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 43 75 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 44 76 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 53 73 50 62 / 10 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ231-232-236-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...BF/80
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