761
FXUS64 KCRP 061828
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1228 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- FOG CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS INLAND AND MARINE ZONES
- COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND 20-30%
MIN RH VALUES THIS WEEKEND
- WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEFORE AND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
MAIN HAZARD TONIGHT WILL BE THE REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY BROUGHT ON
BY FOG. A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT HAS BROUGHT PLEASANT DEWPOINT TEMPS TO
THE HILL COUNTRY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND STALL OUT NEAR A LINE
FROM DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO. THIS IS WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
GREATEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT THE DENSEST OF FOG ROUGHLY
STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXPANDING TOWARD THE COASTAL
COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE EARLY HOURS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN
THE LATEST EVENING MODEL RUNS. IN TERMS OF SEA FOG, WATER TEMPS ARE
STILL HOVERING BETWEEN 65-68F AND WITH DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINING
AROUND 70F AND A STRONGER ONSHORE WIND, THE POSSIBILITY OF SEA FOG
WILL STILL REMAIN PRESENT OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE NEXT BIG WIND SHIFT.
SPEAKING OF THE NEXT WIND SHIFT, OUR LONG-AWAITED COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH LOCATIONS CLOSER
TO THE RIO GRANDE IN THE MORNING AND ENTERING THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WE'LL HAVE TO GET THROUGH SOME
PRETTY WARM DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S (EXCEPT ALONG THE
BARRIER ISLANDS/IMMEDIATE COAST) AND LOWS IN THE 60S (CHECKS
CALENDAR... YES, THIS IS JANUARY). THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LOOKING
TO BE DRY WITH MOST OF THE JET DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT ANY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN WILL NORTH AND EAST OF HERE. THAT SAID, LOCATIONS IN THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WE'LL SLIP BACK INTO AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SPRITZES OF OF RAINDROPS ON SATURDAY
AND LESS SO ON SUNDAY. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
COASTLINE (A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST). DRY AIR ALSO
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20-30% THIS WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH STRONGER 20
FT WINDS, THIS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE RISK THIS WEEKEND (AND THUS
LIMITING ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS). THIS DRIER AIR ALSO
MEANS COOLER WEATHER (WELL, COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN). TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES, THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS BEFORE AND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE , SO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
PACKAGES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. WELCOME TO TEXAS IN
JANUARY!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
REMNANT FOG CONTINUES TO BURN OFF THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS RETURNING TO THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS, FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM LEADING TO CONDITIONS
DROPPING INTO IFR/LIFR FOR KVCT. LATEST GUIDANCE WANTS TO PLACE
THE DENSEST OF FOG CLOSER TO A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTH OF KCOT/KCZT,
SO FOR THIS REASON, I ONLY INCLUDED TEMPO LINES OF 1/2SM VIS FOR
THE REMAINING TERMINALS, BUT THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEARLY THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN
DRIVER OF CONDITIONS AHEAD AND AFTER THE FRONT PASSAGE. ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES TO MODERATE TO FRESH STRENGTH (BF 4-5) ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO 2-4 FT AND THEN TO 6-8 FT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY THEN, ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) STRENGTH. THEN, ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN
NEAR MODERATE STRENGTH UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SATURDAY, AT
WHICH POINT THE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 20-25 KTS
SUSTAINED GUSTING NEAR 30 KTS WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 7-10 FT. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH
STRENGTH WITH 2-4 FT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, DAILY CHANCES (20-
40%) OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35%
THROUGH THURSDAY, LIMITING THE FIRE RISK TO LOW. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY LEADING TO
LOCATIONS IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO SEE MIN RH
VALUES DROP TO 20-30%, WHILE REMAINING ABOVE 40% ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAINS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MIN RH VALUES
BETWEEN 20-30% ALL THE WAY TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DURING THE
WEEKEND, 20 FT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20KT INCREASING THE FIRE
RISK TO ELEVATED. WHILE AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE, IT'LL STILL BE WORTH MONITORING THE FIRE RISK IN
THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST AS ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS INCREASE FROM
AROUND THE 60TH PERCENTILE ON SATURDAY TO NEAR THE 80TH PERCENTILE
ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 82 67 84 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 61 81 65 82 / 0 0 0 10
LAREDO 60 85 65 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 61 85 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 64 78 67 79 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 59 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 63 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 67 77 69 78 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...AE/82
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