605
FXUS64 KCRP 110831
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
231 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
- BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS WITH COOLER NIGHTS THROUGH MID-WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE SETTLES IN TEMPORARILY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION
AROUND MIDWEEK. IT ISN'T EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. IT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THOUGH THEREFORE IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE DURING THE NEXT
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COOL DOWN. LOWS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY
OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 40S.
IN TERMS OF RIGHT NOW WE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY DUE TO EFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 300 TO 305K
LAYER. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW RAIN CHANCES 20-40% THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE (BF 6-7) WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH DAYBREAK, AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10-25% INLAND AND 25-35% FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE DAY
AND ERC VALUES WILL BE IN THE 50TH-89TH PERCENTILE SO WE CAN EXPECT
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH MONDAY. SHOULD WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED,
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP,
SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION IN AND AROUND ANY IGNITION
SOURCES. AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SPRINKLES OF RAIN, BUT NO WETTING RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST ASIDE
FROM THE CHANCES DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 62 48 64 50 / 0 0 10 20
VICTORIA 64 43 64 44 / 0 0 0 10
LAREDO 61 46 64 47 / 10 10 20 40
ALICE 63 45 65 46 / 0 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 64 49 64 50 / 0 0 0 10
COTULLA 63 45 63 45 / 0 10 10 30
KINGSVILLE 63 47 65 47 / 0 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 62 54 63 54 / 0 10 10 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ231-232-
236-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ250-
255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...NP/92
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