464
FXUS64 KCRP 282335
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
535 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES, STRONG WINDS, AND A MODERATE
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
- A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS WHILE A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAND BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND LASTING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY,
BREEZY WINDS, AND DRY FUELS.
- WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND PASSES, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT, WITH MODERATE
RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) OVERALL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, HOWEVER, LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOW AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LIGHT
(<0.25").
BEHIND THE FRONT, NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS FREQUENTLY REACHING 40-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE CONDITIONS ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUANCE OF AN AREAWIDE WIND
ADVISORY, AS WELL AS A GALE WARNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS
WILL BUILD RAPIDLY, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 8-13 FEET AND
SWELL PERIODS OF 6-9 SECONDS. WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL LARGELY
BE LONGSHORE, ELEVATED OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS AND PERSISTENT
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY STILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE COMBINATION
OF BREEZY WINDS AND DRIER AIR AND FUELS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY. MORE
ON THIS IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH
LITTLE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS CAA OFFSETS ANY DAYTIME
HEATING. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE BEYOND THE 50S. CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER ON MONDAY NIGHT, LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S. ALTHOUGH, A FEW NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK IS
STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR CLEARER
SKIES, LOWER WINDS, AND MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH A MEDIUM TO HIGH
(50-75%) CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES INLAND. COASTAL LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LOWS CLOSER TO THE LOW
40S.
THE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS ONCE AGAIN. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY INCREASE TOWARDS SEASONAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL UNDER GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO THE 60S AND 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BEGINNING AROUND 06Z-12Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE FRONT THEREFORE VCSH WAS KEPT IN THE TAF FOR ALL SITES. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. SOME AREAS WILL SEE
A DROP IN VISIBILITIES IN ADDITION TO DROP IN CEILINGS WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY AS THE FRONT
CLEARS THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND
20-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP 40-45 KNOTS POSSIBLE BEGINNING TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
EXPECT A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL RESULT A 60-75% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND IN WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A STRONG
TO GALE STRENGTH (BF 6-8) THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION TO WINDS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 8-13 FEET,
OCCASIONALLY UP TO 15 FEET, OFFSHORE. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM MONDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN
TUESDAY, RETURNING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW BY
MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH, MINIMUM RH VALUES ABOVE 40%, AND
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS (ERCS) IN THE 25TH-49TH PERCENTILE WILL
NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, RESULTING IN MEDIUM CHANCES (50-60%) FOR PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
DROP BELOW 30% (INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY)
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE VERY
LOW RH AND ERCS IN THE 25TH-69TH PERCENTILE WILL ALLOW FOR ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY. WINDS AND MINIMUM RH MAY REACH RED FLAG THRESHOLDS AND WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF A RED FLAG WARNING IS WARRANTED. HOWEVER,
FOR NOW, WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT TO COVER THE THREAT.
NORTHERLY WINDS LESSEN AFTER MONDAY, BUT LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, SUPPORTING LINGERING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 51 53 43 57 / 70 10 0 0
VICTORIA 48 51 40 57 / 50 10 0 0
LAREDO 52 54 45 60 / 60 30 0 0
ALICE 51 54 45 58 / 70 20 0 0
ROCKPORT 51 55 45 59 / 60 10 0 0
COTULLA 50 52 45 59 / 40 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 51 54 44 58 / 60 20 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 55 56 47 57 / 60 10 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-237-
250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...NP/92
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