214
FXUS64 KCRP 191135
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
535 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GREATER CHANCES
AND FOCUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTH TEXAS.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
A SLOW-MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ADVANCING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF AN INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
(PWATS CLIMBING TOWARD 1.5-1.8 INCHES), WITH LOW CLOUDS AND VERY
LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THE UPPER LOW BEGINS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO, PROVIDING ENOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
AS THE UPPER LOW ELONGATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, FORCING
FOR ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW AS IT APPROACHES OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF THE NEARBY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH, AND ABOVE AVERAGE
MOISTURE WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PROBABILITIES GENERALLY RANGE FROM
30-50%, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES DRAPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL PLAINS, AS WELL AS THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND EASTERN COASTAL BEND.
BY THE WEEKEND, THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED LOW TO MODERATE
RAIN CHANCES (20-40%). AS OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT BEFORE A NEW COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS THIS MORNING OWING PRIMARILY TO LOW CEILINGS.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS AROUND MID TO
LATE MORNING, WITH GENERALLY VFR THEN PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE
INLAND TODAY, BUT CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION AND TIMING REMAINS TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS, BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY
AT AROUND 15-20 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE BY THE
EVENING HOURS, BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SEAS HOLDING NEAR 3-5 FEET. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WIND DIRECTION MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION, KEEPING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BY THEN, ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO STRONG (BF
5-6) AHEAD OF THE NEXT PASSING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE
40% ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THOUGH THE BOUNDARY
ITSELF IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE
FRONT LINGERING NEARBY, LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE EASING SLIGHTLY (20-40%) OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK,
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 86 71 84 71 / 10 20 40 10
VICTORIA 86 66 84 66 / 30 30 50 30
LAREDO 92 72 88 70 / 10 10 30 10
ALICE 90 68 88 67 / 10 20 40 10
ROCKPORT 83 71 82 72 / 20 20 40 20
COTULLA 90 71 87 68 / 10 20 50 40
KINGSVILLE 89 69 87 68 / 10 20 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 82 73 81 74 / 20 10 40 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...ANM/88
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