761  
FXUS64 KCRP 212310  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
510 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO  
THE AREA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT,  
THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES  
EAST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE  
BACK INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW A LOWER CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 312 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020/  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...  
 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE TONIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN  
2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THUS EXPECT A GOOD RADIATIONAL  
COOLING NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 30S  
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS  
TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THUS SKIES WILL BECOME  
MOSTLY CLOUDY, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 60S  
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO  
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL APPROACH 60 DEGREES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS  
BY SUN MORNING, THUS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SEA FOG  
DEVELOPING. BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST  
JUST YET.  
 
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...  
 
THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTING AN  
UPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/TX SUNDAY, THEN  
LIFTS/WEAKENS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, WHILE ANOTHER  
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE NWRN CONUS SUNDAY, MOVES  
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, THEN ACROSS THE ERN CONUS  
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM, THE  
GFS/ECMWF PREDICT PWAT VALUES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER,  
DESPITE UPPER FORCING AND MOISTURE, NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED  
SUNDAY OVER THE CWA OWING TO THERMODYNAMICS UNFAVORABLE FOR BOTH  
SURFACE-BASED AND ELEVATED CONVECTION (GFS DETERMINISTIC.)  
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST  
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL BEND MONDAY MORNING ALONG A WEAK  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY (CORRESPONDING TO THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM.) DRY  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO  
BE MAINTAINED OWING TO ANOTHER YET STRONGER SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SECOND UPPER  
SYSTEM. CONDITIONS CORRESPONDING TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER  
CONDITION MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO  
REMAIN THURSDAY/ FRIDAY. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EARLY  
THURSDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN CWA.  
 
MARINE...  
 
WILL LET SCAS EXPIRE AT 3PM (NEARSHORE) AND 6PM (OFFSHORE)  
RESPECTIVELY AS RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW  
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL  
BECOME WEAK TO MODERATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SEA FOG MAY FORM  
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO  
MENTION IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
MAY OCCUR MONDAY OWING TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER  
DISTURBANCE. DRIER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. A STRONG SURGE  
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, WHICH  
MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS  
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 44 64 57 74 63 / 0 0 0 0 10  
VICTORIA 37 64 52 71 61 / 0 0 0 10 20  
LAREDO 44 67 56 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 0  
ALICE 41 66 55 76 62 / 0 0 0 0 10  
ROCKPORT 47 63 58 71 63 / 0 0 0 0 10  
COTULLA 41 65 53 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 10  
KINGSVILLE 42 66 55 76 63 / 0 0 0 0 10  
NAVY CORPUS 50 63 59 71 63 / 0 0 0 0 10  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS  
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA  
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.  
 

 
 

 
 
LS/77...AVIATION  
 
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