037
FXUS64 KCRP 081116
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
516 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 510 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING SATURDAY
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THE WARM TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY YIELDING WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (15+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) BEFORE OUR NEXT
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN COOLER WEATHER
AND FINALLY BRINGING BACK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS STRETCH OF
COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE WE WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING
ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS (25-45% CHANCE). WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SETTING UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND (20-25% CHANCE).
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA (ALI AND VCT) WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION BACK TO VFR AROUND MID MORNING UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED
AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
WINDS DIE DOWN BY THIS EVENING AND MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE DUE TO SOME
PATCHY TO DENSE FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE (BF 5-6)IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WINDS BRIEFLY WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
COLD FRONT. A FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) NORTHERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE TO LOW TO MEDIUM LEVELS (30-55%) FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS AS LOW AS 20-30%
SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
10-25% RANGE SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE STRONGEST WIND
CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) VALUES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60-65TH
PERCENTILE AND INCREASE TO THE 70-80TH PERCENTILE SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, STRONGER
WINDS AND HIGHER ERC VALUES, EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER CONDITONS ARE
TRENDING HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
NOW EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SEEING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 85 68 83 55 / 0 0 10 10
VICTORIA 82 66 82 50 / 10 10 50 20
LAREDO 87 64 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 88 64 85 52 / 0 0 10 10
ROCKPORT 79 68 80 53 / 0 0 30 20
COTULLA 84 61 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 88 66 85 55 / 0 0 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 79 69 78 56 / 0 0 20 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ231-232-
236-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ250-255-
270-275.
DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...NP/92
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