307  
FXUS64 KCRP 222342  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
642 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK THURSDAY  
 
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN  
PROGRESSIVE DURING THE PERIOD, WITH THE CWA REMAINING UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF A FLAT UPPER RIDGE (DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/ECMWF).  
THE GFS/NAM MAINTAIN PWAT VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE  
PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AND HOT  
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE  
100-112 DEGREE RANGE THURSDAY. WILL DEFER TO THE MID SHIFT TO  
DETERMINE SPECIFIC COUNTIES TO INCLUDE IN THE HEAT ADVISORY.  
SPECTRAL DENSITY AT 42019/42020 SUGGEST SWELL PERIODS BELOW 8  
SECONDS. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF 15-20KT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE  
OFFSHORE WATERS (WIND DIRECTION FROM 140 OR 150 DEGREES) AND THE  
NEARNESS TO THE FULL MOON SUGGEST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS  
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE THE  
SRF TO INDICATE SUCH. WILL RETAIN A LOW RISK FOR THURSDAY AS WIND  
DIRECTIONS MAY BE MORE ALONGSHORE (150-160 DEGREES.) THE P-ETSS  
PREDICTS THAT WATER LEVELS MAY APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR  
COASTAL FLOODING AT ARANSAS PASS DURING THE NEXT FEW HIGH HIDE  
CYCLES BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, NOT YET  
CONFIDENT TO HOIST A CFW FOR MINOR FLOODING SINCE ALSO PREFER AT  
LEAST 8 SECOND PERIODS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
- MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD REMAINS MOSTLY  
UNCHANGED WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A FEW MINOR  
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THERE IS  
NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF A DECENT LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE AVAILABLE  
MOISTURE (PWATS RANGING BETWEEN 1.25-1.75 INCHES). NEGLIGIBLE POPS  
ARE FORECASTED THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
THE DOMINANT WEATHER TOPIC THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT. THE  
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH  
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT RIDGE AND HIGH-PRESSURE CENTER OVER MEXICO  
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES  
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH  
850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 23-30 DEGC (AROUND THE 99TH  
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). SOME OF THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT  
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, LEADING TO INCREASINGLY HOTTER  
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 90S ALONG THE  
COAST TO THE UPPER 90S INTO THE 100S WEST OF HWY-77. ADDITIONALLY,  
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE FROM  
THE GULF INLAND, RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING HEAT  
ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES  
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF, WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD BREAKING  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. EXPECT DAILY HEAT  
ADVISORIES FROM FRIDAY TO MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA, WITH A MEDIUM  
TO HIGH (40-70%) PROBABILITY OF EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS FROM  
SATURDAY TO MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN  
COASTAL PLAINS. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, THE WPC HAS MOST OF THE  
REGION OUTLINED IN AN EXTREME HEAT RISK (LEVEL 4 OUT OF 4) WITH A  
MAJOR HEAT RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) ALONG OUR COASTAL AREAS FOR  
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
SINCE THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS APPROACHING, I'M SURE MANY  
OF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED. PLEASE PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY  
BY STAYING HYDRATED, TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE SUN, AVOIDING  
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, WEARING LOOSE AND LIGHTWEIGHT  
CLOTHING, RECOGNIZING THE SIGNS OF HEAT STROKE AND HEAT EXHAUSTION,  
AND ALWAYS CHECKING YOUR VEHICLE BEFORE LOCKING IT. REMEMBER YOUR  
PETS TOO DURING THIS WARM SPELL BY BRINGING THEM INSIDE AND  
PROVIDING THEM WITH PLENTY OF WATER AND SHELTER. ADDITIONALLY, CHECK  
LOCAL MEDIA AND GOVERNMENT WEBSITES FOR COOLING CENTER LOCATIONS AND  
HOURS.  
 
WHILE THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SOME  
"RELIEF" MAY ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE  
STILL HINTING THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MIGHT PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO  
BRING A BOUNDARY AND A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) FOR SHOWERS INTO SOUTH  
TEXAS AT THE TAIL END OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL  
DAYS OUT AND SUBJECT TO CHANCE, BUT IF IT OCCURS, EXPECT ONLY A  
SLIGHT "COOLDOWN" OF A FEW DEGREES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024  
 
CURRENT VFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH  
TEXAS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOUTHEASTERLY  
WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 12 KNOTS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO  
VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE HEATING INCREASES AND  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30  
KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MIST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS  
AND HAZE FROM SMOKE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT  
IN 4-6SM VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2024  
 
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND  
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OWING TO THE  
ENHANCED MSLP GRADIENT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO  
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY  
ACROSS OUR WATERS, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE  
WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SETS  
IN ON TUESDAY AS THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS TO BECOME MORE  
EASTERLY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 94 80 95 / 0 0 0 0  
VICTORIA 78 93 78 94 / 10 0 0 0  
LAREDO 80 105 81 108 / 10 0 0 0  
ALICE 78 98 78 101 / 10 0 0 0  
ROCKPORT 80 90 81 91 / 0 0 0 0  
COTULLA 80 103 80 107 / 10 0 0 0  
KINGSVILLE 79 96 78 99 / 10 0 0 0  
NAVY CORPUS 81 90 82 91 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ229-230-239>244.  
 
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ231-232.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...WC  
LONG TERM....KRS  
AVIATION...EMF/94  
 
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