549
FXUS64 KCRP 172343
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
643 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW 10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT,
WITH A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN
EFFECT.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS IS DRIVING DRY AND COOLER NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, LEADING TO A SMALL
DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND A SHIFT TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BY
TOMORROW.
THIS RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER WITH PWATS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL, THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE.
DESPITE THIS, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD MID-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS AS THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID-80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SETTLING GENERALLY
INTO THE 60S.
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD ARE THE HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
DURING HIGH TIDE PERIODS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TIDAL LEVELS
ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE FORECAST GUIDANCE, WITH
THE P-ETSS MODEL INDICATING LEVELS BETWEEN 2.5 TO 3.0 FEET MSL.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SATURDAY ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2024
KEY MESSAGE:
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN
REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND WILL INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN SWELL PERIODS AND
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDE WILL INCREASE OUR RISK FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. THE P-ETSS MODEL IS TRENDING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TODAY
SHOWING A HIGH CHANCE FOR CONTINUE COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH WATER LEVEL REACHING UP TO 2.5 FEET
ABOVE MSL WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR WATER LEVELS TO REACH NEAR 3 FEET
ABOVE MSL. APART FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
FLOODING ACROSS THE BAYS HAVE ALSO INCREASED. THE P-ETSS MODEL IS
SHOWING WATER LEVELS INCREASING OVER 2 FEET MSL BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD RESULT FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE WATER REACHING THE DUNES WITH
UP TO 1.5 FEET OF BEACH INUNDATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY HOVERING AROUND 12
KNOTS WILL WEAKEN A FEW KNOTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAMPING BACK TO
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2024
MODERATE TO STRONG EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE DECREASING TO WEAK TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-25%) ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, DECREASING TO UNDER 10% BY MONDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 83 69 84 / 0 10 0 20
VICTORIA 58 83 63 85 / 0 10 0 20
LAREDO 67 85 70 89 / 10 20 0 10
ALICE 64 85 67 86 / 0 10 0 20
ROCKPORT 69 85 72 84 / 0 10 10 20
COTULLA 64 85 68 88 / 0 20 0 10
KINGSVILLE 66 85 68 86 / 0 10 0 20
NAVY CORPUS 74 82 75 82 / 0 20 10 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ345-442-
443-447.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ345-442-
443-447.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KRS
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...EMF/94
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