335
FXUS64 KCRP 162344
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
544 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT TO
SUNDAY MORNING (40-80%) ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
- WIND CHILL VALUES 25-30 DEGREES INLAND AND 30-40 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY MORNING
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 7-11 PM USHERING IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, RADIATIONAL COOLING
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THERE'S A MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%) CHANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS FROM LA SALLE THROUGH LIVE OAK AND BEE AND
UP TO THE VICTORIA. ELSEWHERE, CHANCES FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LOW (10-20%). REGARDLESS OF WHETHER TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
FREEZING OR NOT, IT'S GOING TO FEEL COLD. WIND CHILL VALUES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 25-
30 DEGREE RANGE INLAND AND 30-40 DEGREE RANGE ALONG THE COAST. WHILE
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH (10-20% ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OUR SECOND COLD FRONT.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY, THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2".
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HAS
STARTED TO SHIFT THE WINDS FROM THE NORTH FOR COT/LRD. THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS WILL SEE NORTHERLY WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 25-30
KNOTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A SEVERAL HOUR
PERIOD EARLY IN THE MORNING. THERE'S ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR
MINIMAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR CRP, OF AROUND
10 DEGREES AND A 30 KNOT SPEED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY
04Z-12Z SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A SOUTHERLY FRESH BREEZE (BF 5) IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TO A STRONG
BREEZE TO NEAR GALE (BF 6-7) BY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO GALE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
HANG AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN BACK TO A
MODERATE BREEZE SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY AS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF OUR NEXT FRONT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP TO AS LOW AS 12-25% WITH WINDS GUSTING TO
25 MPH. CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL HANG AROUND
SUNDAY, HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NEGATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC) VALUES IN THE 75-
85TH PERCENTILE SATURDAY WILL INCREASE TO THE 80-85TH PERCENTILE
SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. THEREFORE, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SUNDAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND MODERATE TO HIGH
ERC VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 52 61 37 62 / 10 10 0 0
VICTORIA 46 59 30 62 / 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 46 63 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 48 62 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 51 62 40 60 / 20 0 0 0
COTULLA 41 62 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 51 61 35 63 / 0 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 55 61 45 59 / 20 10 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ229>234-
239>247-342>347-442-443-447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...BF/80
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