341
FXUS64 KCRP 061145
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
545 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- LOW RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY, INCREASING TO MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES (50-90%) THIS WEEKEND. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR THE NORTHERN BRUSH
COUNTRY.
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR
SATURDAY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WITH A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 2) FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE MAIN
HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
LOW (10-25%) CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 30-40
KNOT LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE INTO SOUTH TEXAS
WHICH, WHEN COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AND
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND A FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE COULD LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS WITH A MARGINAL
RISK OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS WITH THESE STORMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH DEEP MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED COLD FRONT. WHILE WE CAN CERTAINLY
USE THE RAIN, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY
RAIN FALLS OVER DRY AND COMPACTED SOILS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A CUTOFF LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS WHICH WILL SEND ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BETWEEN 14-18Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTY S-SE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTS 28-33 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS WITH A MODERATE TO
FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BACK TO MODERATE (BF 4) LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE BECOMING GENTLE
TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW (<20%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY, INCREASING TO
A MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (20-40%)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM TODAY. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW (APPROXIMATELY 20-25%)
THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WILL INCREASE TO A MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-90%)
CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A PASSING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 84 70 82 68 / 10 10 20 60
VICTORIA 83 70 84 63 / 10 10 40 70
LAREDO 95 71 94 65 / 10 10 30 80
ALICE 90 70 89 66 / 20 10 20 70
ROCKPORT 79 70 79 68 / 10 10 20 60
COTULLA 92 71 90 63 / 20 10 60 90
KINGSVILLE 88 71 88 68 / 20 10 20 60
NAVY CORPUS 78 70 77 70 / 10 10 20 60
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ231-
232-250.
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...TE/81
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