942
FXUS64 KCRP 112259
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
459 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 448 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
- BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS WITH COOLER NIGHTS THROUGH MID-WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO MONDAY, CONTRIBUTING TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN TO THE FORECAST FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
PASSING MID-LEVEL LOW. EXPECT CLOUDIER CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY LIGHT
RAIN AS AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN AT THE 300K LAYER DEVELOPS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN PUSHING THROUGH A BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AROUND MID-WEEK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZIER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. BY THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE
INDICATING A DEEPER TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE STATE AND PUSH AN
ASSOCIATED STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION, BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LIMITED THE COASTAL WATERS.
OVERALL, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY, THEN WARMING
INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S LATE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S ALL WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 448 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
TODAY OVER THE GULF WATERS. TONIGHT, EXPECT A GENTLE TO MODERATE
(BF 3-4) BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6) LEVELS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10-25% INLAND AND 25-35%
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ERC VALUES BEING IN THE 50TH-89TH PERCENTILE,
WE CAN EXPECT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN OVERRUNNING
PATTERN WILL THEN RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN, MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN, IT SHOULD BE DRY THE
REST OF THE WEEK WITH A COUPLE MORE BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 49 64 49 63 / 0 10 20 10
VICTORIA 41 65 44 63 / 0 0 10 10
LAREDO 47 64 48 63 / 10 20 40 10
ALICE 45 66 45 65 / 10 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 49 65 49 64 / 0 0 10 10
COTULLA 44 64 45 63 / 10 10 40 10
KINGSVILLE 47 65 47 63 / 10 10 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 54 63 54 63 / 0 10 20 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ270-275.
DISCUSSION...ANM/88
AVIATION...LS/77
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