154  
FXUS64 KCRP 051026  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
426 AM CST FRI MAR 5 2021  
   
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
 
 
OUR NEXT FRONT IS ON IT'S WAY AS A MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES  
SLIDING SE ACROSS OK AND WILL SKIRT NE TX AS IT BECOMES AN  
OPENWAVE TODAY. AS THE REMNANTS CONTINUE TO SWEEP OFF TOWARD THE  
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW  
AFTER DRY AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL  
RIDGING THEN MOVES IN TO PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE.  
 
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THIS MORNING MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS  
/ DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA AND TOWARDS THE  
COAST BY TONIGHT. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS  
THE REACHES THE COAST. TIMING BETWEEN MODELS VARIES SLIGHTLY AND THE  
FRONT APPEARS TO STALL BRIEFLY ONCE IT REACHES THE COAST BUT IT  
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. COLDER AIR FILTERS  
IN BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING IT TO MOVE OFFSHORE. TODAY EXPECT  
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. TONIGHT LOWS WILL DIP TO THE LOW TO MID  
50S.  
 
FIRE WEATHER IS A CONCERN FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AS  
MINRH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 15% AND THE 20 FT WINDS WILL APPROACH  
~15 KNOTS BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS BELOW THRESHOLDS DESPITE  
HAVING CURED FUELS HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN RFD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
 
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A VERY SUBTLE 500 HPA SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM SATURDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY  
LIMITED DUE TO THE PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY ON  
SATURDAY ADVECTING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. THEREFORE,  
MOST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY ON SUNDAY WITH  
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO  
MID 70S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. HOWEVER, PWAT IS FORECAST TO  
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM AROUND 0.5" TO 0.75-1" BY SUNDAY EVENING  
DUE TO LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO  
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY  
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND.  
 
A 500 HPA TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO DIG  
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT  
WEEK. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING 500 HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE  
CWA AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS  
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS  
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SERIES  
OF SURFACE CYCLONES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH  
WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA BY TUESDAY  
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BREEZY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING  
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED  
TO INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHWESTERLY  
FLOW ADVECTING WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CWA. BY  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM  
THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO  
LOW 90S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  
 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW  
PROGRESSIVE THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DURING THE LATER HALF OF  
THE WEEK. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS  
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS BY FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR  
ASCENT WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DUE TO  
RETURN FLOW SHOULD (HOPEFULLY) RESULT IN MORE APPRECIABLE CHANCES  
FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.  
   
MARINE
 
 
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP ON  
MONDAY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 81 53 68 53 70 / 20 0 0 0 10  
VICTORIA 78 52 69 47 70 / 20 0 0 0 0  
LAREDO 84 53 71 52 72 / 10 0 0 0 10  
ALICE 83 52 70 49 72 / 20 0 0 0 10  
ROCKPORT 74 55 65 53 69 / 20 0 0 0 10  
COTULLA 83 52 70 51 73 / 10 0 0 0 0  
KINGSVILLE 83 52 69 51 70 / 20 0 0 0 10  
NAVY CORPUS 76 57 65 57 66 / 20 0 0 0 10  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
BF/80...SHORT TERM  
TWH/91...LONG TERM  
 
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