291
FXUS64 KCRP 242314
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
514 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 504 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- COLD FRONT SHOWER ACTIVITY (30-40% CHANCE) WILL GRAZE THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS TONIGHT.
- PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH BY MIDWEEK, BRINGING
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS JUST IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE COASTAL BEND AS
WE SPEAK. ALONG THIS, CAMS ARE SHOWING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONGSIDE IT WITH THE TAIL END OF ACTIVITY NEAR THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA TONIGHT. CAMS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING MOST ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF THE
CWA, ONLY BRINGING WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS INTO VICTORIA COUNTY
BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA AROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST, IT WILL STALL OUT. WITH THIS AND WEAK
WINDS AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS MODERATE CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL PLAINS (30-50%). CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH FOR ANY DENSE FOG PRODUCTS, BUT IT'LL BE WORTH MONITORING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING'S MODEL GUIDANCE FOR VISIBILITIES
LOWER THAN A 1/2 MILE.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH MORE MOMENTUM THAN THE INITIAL FRONT
WILL ALLOW THE DRIER, COOLER AIR TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. IT WILL
BE WORTH MONITORING WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND THE TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY FRONT PASSAGE AS THIS COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT'S RAIN CHANCES. SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT, A JUICY
BOUNDARY LAYER AND WARM TEMPS WILL PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 12Z HRRR HAS THIS INSTABILITY GRADIENT
SETTING UP SOUTH OF FALFURRIAS, WHILE THE 06Z RRFS HAS THE STALLED
FRONT FURTHER NORTH INTO KLEBERG COUNTY. STORMS WILL HAVE 40-60KT
SHEAR TO WORK WITH, SO DON'T QUITE DISCOUNT TOMORROW'S THREAT,
ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT STALLS OUT FURTHER NORTH. AT MOST, THESE
FORECAST STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK DOWNPOUR AND GUSTY
WINDS (GENERALLY UNDER SEVERE THRESHOLDS).
ONCE THAT SECONDARY FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND USHERS IN DRIER AIR,
WE'LL FINALLY HAVE THE MUCH AWAITED COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING IN THE 70S ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
MORNING LOWS ON THANKSGIVING MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.
THIS IS DEFINITELY A GOOD TIME TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE COOLER
TEMPS AND OPEN UP THE WINDOW TO COOL DOWN THE KITCHEN!
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL COMES THIS WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON SATURDAY, BUT WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL (<0.25" FOR A 24HR PERIOD) FROM THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS (20-30% CHANCE). CONFIDENCE
RIGHT NOW FOR THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF OVERALL RAINFALL REMAINS
LOW. AS MORE MODEL GUIDANCE COMES THROUGH, WE'LL HAVE A BETTER
IDEA OF HOW THIS NEXT RAIN OPPORTUNITY PLAYS OUT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT OUR EASTERNMOST SITES WINDING DOWN OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH
A NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF BR/FG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY AT ALI, CRP, AND VCT,
WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR LRD. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC MVFR
TO LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE 10-14Z WINDOW.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE STEADILY THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN, ALLOWING CIGS TO LIFT AND VSBYS TO RETURN
TO VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) RAIN CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS,
WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG (BF 6) GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH 3 PM NORTH
OF PORT ARANSAS AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT S OF PORT ARANSAS. WINDS
WILL EASE ON TUESDAY, BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3), BEFORE A
STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE MIDWEEK. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN
BACK TO MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) WITH INTERMITTENT STRONG (BF 6)
GUSTS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY, AFTER
WHICH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. CONFIDENCE DECREASES HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RENEWED
ONSHORE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER- LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG WITH FRESH TO STRONG (BF 5-6)
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
WHILE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DO BRIEFLY DROP TO THE 25-35%
RANGE ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND THE REGION OVERALL REMAINS
ABOVE 30-40% MIN RH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE DRIER AIR, ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS REMAIN LOW
(BELOW THE 35TH PERCENTILE) THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK KEEPING THE
FIRE RISK LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 85 60 71 / 10 10 30 10
VICTORIA 62 85 52 72 / 40 0 10 0
LAREDO 62 87 62 73 / 0 10 30 20
ALICE 63 88 57 73 / 10 10 30 10
ROCKPORT 70 84 60 73 / 20 10 20 10
COTULLA 56 86 56 73 / 0 0 10 0
KINGSVILLE 65 87 60 71 / 10 10 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 72 82 64 71 / 10 10 30 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ231-232-
250-270.
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...KRS/98
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