140
FXUS64 KCRP 201931
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
131 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
- LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH GREATER
CHANCES AND FOCUS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTH TEXAS.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE STALLING JUST NORTH OF SOUTH TEXAS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
FROM THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH PWAT VALUES OF 1.6-1.75" WHICH
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS, HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND LIFT IN THE 700-850MB LEVEL WILL THE LIMITING FACTOR
TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. WITH THE STALLED FRONT
AND DEEP MOISTURE POOLED OVER SOUTH TEXAS, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED (35-60%) THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 0.25-1"
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION BEING
THE ONLY AREA LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATION OVER 1" (1-2"). OUR NEXT
CHANCE TO BREAK THIS STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT JUST
IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE
FOR ALI AND CRP. FOR THE OTHER SITES, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 11-15Z. ALL SITES SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR BY MID-MORNING AROUND 16Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH BEFORE BECOMING MORE MODERATE (BF 4) FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, KEEPING SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO FRESH TO STRONG (BF5-6) EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAY ABOVE 40% ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 MPH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, THOUGH THE BOUNDARY ITSELF IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO SOUTH TEXAS. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE FRONT LINGERING NEARBY, LOW TO
MODERATE RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS
WAKE, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30-35%
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. HOWEVER, LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 MPH
SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 70 87 70 84 / 10 20 30 60
VICTORIA 67 86 65 83 / 10 40 40 50
LAREDO 71 88 71 86 / 10 10 20 60
ALICE 68 90 67 85 / 10 20 30 60
ROCKPORT 73 85 70 82 / 10 20 40 50
COTULLA 68 85 67 83 / 30 20 30 60
KINGSVILLE 68 90 68 86 / 0 20 20 60
NAVY CORPUS 74 83 73 81 / 10 20 30 60
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...JCP/84
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page