571
FXUS64 KCRP 071109
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
509 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 505 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
- WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
- SEVERAL IMPACTFUL HAZARDS BEFORE AND AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT
SUNDAY MORNING: POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING, FIRE, MARINE, AND
COLD
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT
MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING LEADING TO ELEVATED WINDS AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BE AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST POTENTIALLY TO
GALE CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ABOUT A 40-50% CHANCE FOR
GALE CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND LEADING UP TO THE FRONT,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME
IN REGARDS TO THE DRIER CONDITIONS, WE CAN EXPECT FIRE WEATHER WILL
LIKELY BE A CONCERN AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PLUMMET. THIS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE MONDAY THOUGH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAINING VERY LOW, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER AT LEAST UNTIL MIDWEEK.
LASTLY WITH THE FRONT CREEPING IN BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS, THE
REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS CALMING. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH 40S AND 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THERE AFTER TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT
ALI AND VCT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG. THE EASTERN
SITES WILL JOIN THE WESTERN SITES WITHIN VFR CONDITIONS BY MID-
MORNING AND REMAIN THERE FOR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE. MODELS ARE
SHOWING MEDIUM CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG TOMORROW MORNING FROM 09-14Z
ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES, MAINLY ALI AND VCT. DUE TO THIS BEING
IN THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST, OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. WE WILL EVALUATE FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND ADD THE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO THE TAFS IF NEEDED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
SOUTHWEST GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4) IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE (BF 6-7) NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SEAS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY TO 10-15
FEET. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 7 FEET AND WINDS DIMINISHING
BELOW 20 KNOTS. GENERALLY, MODERATE TO FRESH (BF 4-5) SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING,
CREATING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT, WILL CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE FIRE WEATHER RISK. ALTHOUGH WINDS
DECREASE DURING THE WORK WEEK, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE TEENS (MON) AND 20S (TUE-WED), KEEPING AT
LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTACT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK EACH AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT
(ERC) VALUES ARE EXTREMELY HIGH, RANGING FROM THE 80-95TH
PERCENTILE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER,
WITH STILL WARRANTED ELEVATED CONDITIONS FOLLOWING INTO MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 89 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 89 61 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 94 60 93 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 93 60 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 83 69 83 65 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 95 58 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 91 61 91 63 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 82 70 83 68 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...JCP/84
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