971
FXUS64 KCRP 200852
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
352 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2019
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE 500MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
AS A 500MB TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY DEEPENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TODAY WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AS A RESULT. AT THE
SURFACE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PROVIDE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO WILL
CONTINUE NOT TO MENTION ANY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND
AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGHS FROM 90 NEAR THE COAST TO NEAR 107 ACROSS THE
EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IN COMBINATION WITH VERY
WARM DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...WILL PROVIDE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AT
LEAST 110 TO 115 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FEW SPOTS ABOVE 115 DEGREES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE BARRIER ISLANDS ALONG THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO "COOLER" BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 110 TO 115 DEGREES ACROSS MOST
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON. HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY
EXCEPT ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AREA.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM INVOLVED SCALING POPS
LOWER AREA WIDE THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A RICHER PUSH OF PWATS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE HOST TO A FEW VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT THE MORE DEFINITIVE ASCENT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST TEXAS COINCIDENT WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP A VERY HEALTHY SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
FLOW INTACT OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A LARGER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST PRECIP CHANCES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO CLIP OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES MAINLY NEAR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE CINH WILL
BE COMPARABLY LESS THAN ELSEWHERE. THIS LOOKS TO PLAY OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A SMALL WINDOW FOR MORNING
STREAMER SHOWERS FOCUSING ALONG OUR NORTHEASTERN COASTAL COUNTIES.
BY MONDAY, THE PASSAGE OF A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL SERVE TO NUDGE AN AXIS OF RICHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT
MINIMAL CINH ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE PWATS OF
2 INCHES OR MORE ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP. POPS FOR MONDAY MAY NEED TO
BE TRENDED HIGHER IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS SIGNAL PERSISTS.
BEGINNING TUESDAY, THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION UNDERNEATH A RETROGRADING
SUBTROPICAL HIGH, SO WE RETAINED A LOW MENTION OF RAIN CHANCES THIS
DAY. THEREAFTER, PWATS SHOULD FALL 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH AS THE
UPPER HIGH AMPLIFIES OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND DELIVERS MUCH DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. REGARDING HEAT INDICES, SATURDAY MAY
BE A CONTENDER FOR ONE LAST HEAT ADVISORY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS
BEFORE VALUES CONSISTENTLY FALL BELOW 110 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
PROVIDES A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SCEC TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE BAY WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A RESULT.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND COMPLETE WITH SCA CONDITIONS. THESE GRADIENT
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER BEGINNING MONDAY, BUT SEAS WILL BE SLOWER
TO RESPOND AND IS WHY WAVES OF 7 FEET MAY NOT DIMINISH UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE
PROBABLE BEGINNING TUESDAY AS MODERATE WINDS MAINTAIN WAVES OF 3 TO
OCCASIONALLY 6 FEET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 96 82 94 80 95 / 0 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 96 81 95 79 93 / 0 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 107 81 104 80 104 / 0 0 10 10 10
ALICE 102 80 99 80 98 / 0 0 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 91 84 91 82 90 / 0 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 107 80 104 79 102 / 0 0 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 100 81 98 80 96 / 0 0 10 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 91 83 90 83 90 / 10 10 10 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEE...COASTAL ARANSAS...COASTAL
CALHOUN...COASTAL KLEBERG...COASTAL NUECES...COASTAL
REFUGIO...COASTAL SAN PATRICIO...DUVAL...GOLIAD...INLAND
CALHOUN...INLAND KLEBERG...INLAND NUECES...INLAND REFUGIO...
INLAND SAN PATRICIO...JIM WELLS...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...
MCMULLEN...VICTORIA...WEBB.
GM...NONE.
MC/99...SHORT TERM
MZ/93...LONG TERM
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