927
FXUS64 KCRP 101143
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
543 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
- NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP TODAY, A WIND ADVISORY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS MORNING
- ELEVATED AND NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY-MONDAY IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
- BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS WITH COOLER NIGHTS THROUGH MID-WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS NEAR THE COAST
WILL REACH UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THEREFORE,
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WAS
MAINTAINED. WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS TO SEE IF AN EXPANSION WILL BE
NECESSARY THROUGH THE DAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALSO
MAINTAINED THOUGH IT DOES REMAIN AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW GALE CRITERIA. THOUGH, IT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND A SHORT
FUSE GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF WINDS OVER-PREFORM.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TODAY DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER IN HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGINNING
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, THOUGH CONDITIONS LIKELY WON'T
IMPROVE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
FOR MORE INFORMATION). THE DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK KEEPING HIGHS RELATIVELY MILD
IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
AROUND MID WEEK ALLOWING FOR THESE MOSTLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS ALSO MAY ALLOW FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE
AREA, THOUGH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE COAST AND LEFT ELEVATED
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT WINDS TO LAST THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF NORTH TO SOUTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY THIS MORNING
(10-12Z) AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST AND INCREASE TO
STRONG TO NEAR- GALE FORCE(BF 6-7). THIS WILL RESULT IN BUILDING
SEAS TO 6-10 FT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
PERIOD, THOUGH WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS SHOULD ANY GALE
PRODUCTS BE NEEDED. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT. A LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-65%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING, WITH
PORTIONS OF WEBB COUNTY DROPPING BELOW 30% RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEHIND
THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20-30% INLAND
AND 30-40% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED BEHIND
THE FRONT SATURDAY AND ERC VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50TH-75TH
PERCENTILE SO WE CAN EXPECT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR SATURDAY. THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 10-25%
INLAND (AND REMAIN AROUND 30% ALONG THE COAST), AND ERCS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 70TH-80TH PERCENTILES WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SHOULD WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP, SO PLEASE CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION IN AND
AROUND ANY IGNITION SOURCES. AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SPRINKLES OF RAIN, BUT NO WETTING RAIN IS
IN THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE CHANCES DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 47 61 48 / 20 20 0 10
VICTORIA 63 41 64 42 / 10 0 0 0
LAREDO 63 47 60 47 / 20 10 10 10
ALICE 66 44 62 43 / 20 20 0 10
ROCKPORT 68 47 63 48 / 20 10 0 10
COTULLA 63 41 62 45 / 10 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 67 46 62 46 / 20 20 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 68 50 62 53 / 20 20 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ245-342>347-442-443-
447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...NP/92
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