685
FXUS64 KCRP 032346
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
646 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 638 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO 30-40% ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT
- DAILY LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
- MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK DAILY WITH MAX HEAT INDICES 100-110
DEGREES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
BIGGEST NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
POSING A GREATER IMPACT RISK FOR FIREWORK SHOWS. LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTION DUE TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE (>75TH PERCENTILE)
AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE INDUCING PVA. THEREFORE, HAVE RAISED LESS
THAN 10% CHANCES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO 30-40% FRIDAY
EVENING THIS PACKAGE. NOT NEARLY AS CONFIDENT WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ADVECTS WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
THE TEXAS COAST.
IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES, MAX HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM
100-110 DAILY, RESULTING IN A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK. PLEASE
STAY SAFE THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND BRING
AN UMBRELLA JUST IN CASE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING
AROUND 06-09Z THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING EXCEPT FOR COT WHERE IFR
CEILINGS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY, SO HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THAT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACCOMPANIED VFR
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SEAS DECREASING FROM 3 TO 2 FT. WINDS WILL STILL BE
ONSHORE AT GENTLE STRENGTH WITH NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS SEEING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO DAILY LOW
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 91 78 90 / 10 20 40 20
VICTORIA 77 90 76 91 / 20 30 40 20
LAREDO 77 96 77 95 / 10 0 30 10
ALICE 75 93 75 92 / 10 10 20 20
ROCKPORT 81 89 81 89 / 10 30 40 20
COTULLA 77 94 78 94 / 20 20 20 20
KINGSVILLE 77 91 76 90 / 10 10 30 20
NAVY CORPUS 81 88 81 88 / 10 20 40 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...BF/80
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