687  
FXUS64 KCRP 072020  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
320 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020  
   
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
 
 
A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM BETWEEN DEL RIO AND EAGLE PASS  
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE EXTREME WESTERN BRUSH  
COUNTRY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED  
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE  
DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME A  
STATIONARY SHEAR AXIS ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF  
MEXICO BUILDS WESTWARD. DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF  
MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DECREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN CHANCE  
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM  
THE EAST. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CONTINUED HIGH  
HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES  
WITH READINGS AT OR ABOVE 110/ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE INLAND  
COASTAL BEND AND OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.  
 
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD  
BOTH NIGHTS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH  
COUNTRY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
 
 
 
A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS SHIFTS WEST  
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE  
DEPARTURE OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT  
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. AS A RESULT, A SILENT 10 PERCENT  
CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, HEAT  
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS  
RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL  
(500 MB) HEIGHTS IN THE 594-596 DECAMETER RANGE HEADING INTO THE  
WEEKEND ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND  
TEMPERATURES RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID  
90S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 100S INLAND. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE  
NEEDED THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY AS HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINE  
WITH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 114  
DEGREES.  
 
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES WITH  
THE SAME PATTERN OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND NO PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT  
AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY DROP HEAT  
INDICES INTO THE 105-109 RANGE BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY BRINGS WEAK TO  
MODERATE S/SE WINDS TRANSITIONING INTO MODERATE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH  
GOING INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND WILL LEAD  
TO SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS  
THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25  
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT  
MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS  
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS  
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND, BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO  
NEAR CAUTION LEVELS FOR WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 95 80 94 79 / 10 10 10 0 0  
VICTORIA 80 95 79 96 78 / 10 10 0 10 0  
LAREDO 81 103 80 104 80 / 10 0 0 10 0  
ALICE 79 99 79 99 78 / 10 10 0 10 0  
ROCKPORT 82 90 83 91 82 / 10 10 10 10 0  
COTULLA 79 102 79 104 78 / 10 0 0 0 0  
KINGSVILLE 79 98 79 97 78 / 10 10 0 0 0  
NAVY CORPUS 81 91 82 90 81 / 10 10 0 0 0  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
TMT/89...SHORT TERM  
MSH/98...HAA/72...LONG TERM  
 
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