919
FXUS64 KCRP 072322
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
522 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 513 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
- INCREASED HAZARD IMPACTS FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING: FIRE WEATHER, MARINE, AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT SUNDAY. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
ONE MORE ABNORMALLY WARM DAY ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 90S OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
THERE REMAINS A MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE OF FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND BEFORE THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONG WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING, LOOKING AT
SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND OVER 30 MPH
OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A POTENTIAL SHORTER-FUSED GALE
WATCH/WARNING WHEN WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST AND FREQUENTLY GUSTING
OVER 35 KNOTS. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER, NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ONLY 20-40%. A SECONDARY SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR GALE CONDITIONS.
OVER LAND, THE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
15-30%, RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS
FROM 9AM-9PM SUNDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 30%
EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20 MPH.
COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALONG WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, WILL
PROMOTE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LOWS EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING. WE'RE LOOKING AT A 50-80% CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS ON
TUESDAY REACHING THE 30S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF INLAND SOUTH
TEXAS. NBM CURRENTLY HAS A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT
THE NAM NOW EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SHOWING A TAD COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN COMPARISON TO THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE NAM AND OTHER
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS TEND TO PERFORM BETTER WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND RETURNS TUESDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOSTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
MORNING ONCE AGAIN, WE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY TO DENSE FOG.
THIS WILL BE AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS (ALI AND VCT) AND SHOULD
ONLY LAST THROUGH MIDMORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE (BF 3-4) IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE (BF 6-7)
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE OPEN WATERS
SIGNIFICANTLY TO 10-15 FEET. THERE'S A LOW CHANCE, 10-30% OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 7 FEET
AND WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KNOTS. GENERALLY, MODERATE TO FRESH
(BF 4-5) SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY,
STRENGTHENING TO STRONG (BF 6) TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING,
CAUSING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO 15-30 PERCENT,
WILL CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE FIRE WEATHER RISK. ALTHOUGH
WINDS DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW, DROPPING INTO THE TEENS (MON)
AND 20S (TUE-WED), KEEPING AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
INTACT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK EACH AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION,
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC) VALUES ARE EXTREMELY HIGH, RANGING
FROM THE 80-95TH PERCENTILE. SUNDAY WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
FIRE WEATHER, WITH NOTABLE ELEVATED CONDITIONS FOLLOWING INTO
MIDWEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 89 65 78 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 60 89 59 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 58 93 63 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 59 92 62 78 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 67 83 65 77 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 57 92 61 75 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 61 91 63 78 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 70 83 68 76 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...NP/92
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