059
FXUS64 KCRP 240545
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1245 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1244 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
- NHC HAS A 10% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHERN GULF. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR
COASTAL TEXAS FRIDAY-SUNDAY.
- GENERALLY MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY WILL HAVE A MAJOR
RISK WITH MAX HEAT INDICES AROUND 110 AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN A
MODERATE HEAT RISK BUT A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE A
MAJOR HEAT RISK TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK
RETURNING.
THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE IN OUR UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERN IS AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE GULF. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A 10% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS. AS IT APPROACHES, TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM INTO THE AREA WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT VALUES (2.2-2.4") FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS
INCREASING FOR THE COASTAL AREAS, WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING
INLAND. RAINFALL RATES OF 2+ INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS THE COASTAL AREAS
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS FOR ALI AND VCT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS RETURN LATE IN THE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
A GENTLE (BF 3) SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH NEAR 3 FT SEAS FOR MOST OF THE WATERS, WITH A MODERATE
BREEZE (BF 4) AND SLIGHTLY CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS.
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (50-70%) RESULTING IN BRIEF GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH 3-4
FT SEAS. BY THE UPCOMING WEEK, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENTLE TO
MODERATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 95 76 92 75 / 0 10 30 30
VICTORIA 99 75 93 75 / 0 10 50 40
LAREDO 105 76 101 78 / 0 0 10 10
ALICE 101 74 94 74 / 0 0 20 20
ROCKPORT 92 79 90 79 / 0 10 40 40
COTULLA 104 76 101 79 / 0 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 97 74 92 75 / 0 0 20 30
NAVY CORPUS 90 79 88 78 / 0 10 30 40
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...LS/77
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