311
FXUS64 KCRP 152333
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
533 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT TO
SUNDAY MORNING (40-70%) ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
- WIND CHILL VALUES 25-30 DEGREES INLAND AND 30-35 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY MORNING
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TOMORROW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR ONE DAY. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
THERE'S A MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-70%) CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS
FROM LA SALLE THROUGH LIVE OAK AND BEE AND UP TO THE VICTORIA.
ELSEWHERE, CHANCES FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW (10-20%).
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING OR NOT, IT'S
GOING TO FEEL COLD! WIND CHILL VALUES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE
INLAND AND 30-35 DEGREE RANGE ALONG THE COAST. WHILE RAIN CHANCES
ARE NOT HIGH (10-20% ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OUR SECOND COLD FRONT.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY, THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2".
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. HAVE
INCLUDED LLWS FOR COT BETWEEN 09-15Z FRIDAY. AVIATION WEATHER HAS
INCLUDED A LLWS G-AIRMET THAT TERMINATES JUST NORTH OF COT BUT IS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN
VEERING TOWARDS THE NORTH STARTING WITH COT/LRD AROUND 00Z
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING
TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS (BF 4-5). HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT SHIFTING THE
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO STRONG BREEZE (BF 6)
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BACK TO
MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS ON SUNDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WHERE LOW TO
MEDIUM (25-45%) CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER OVER THE GULF WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAYS BEING SATURDAY (20-30%
INLAND) AND SUNDAY (15-30% AREAWIDE). ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIEST DAY OF THE TWO WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 MPH, THE ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) VALUES FOR BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70-
80TH PERCENTILE FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPT FOR THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND, WHERE ERC VALUES WILL BE IN
THE 60-65TH PERCENTILES. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG, THE
MODERATE TO HIGH ERC VALUES WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
BOTTOM 25TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, POSSIBLY CREEPING TO CRITICAL
LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 47 77 53 62 / 0 0 10 10
VICTORIA 42 76 45 58 / 0 0 10 0
LAREDO 47 77 49 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 42 79 49 62 / 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 53 72 52 62 / 0 0 10 10
COTULLA 42 77 45 59 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 44 79 52 63 / 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 55 72 56 62 / 0 0 20 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JCP/84
AVIATION...BF/80
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