423  
FXUS64 KCRP 131128  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
528 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
LIFR IN DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FROM ALI-  
CRP-VCT, BUT VFR SHOULD RAPIDLY RESUME HERE FROM 9 TO 10 AM AS  
THIS SHALLOW LAYER ERODES AHEAD OF DRIER WESTERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH  
SOME MODELS SHOW FOG REDEVELOPING TONIGHT AT THESE SAME TERMINALS,  
THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THE MOMENT.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 348 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2019/  
 
SHORT TERM...  
 
DENSE FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHOKE CANYON-ALICE-PREMONT  
LINE IS ON TRACK TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY  
MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NUDGES EAST AND DELIVERS LIGHT  
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS. ALOFT, NW FLOW WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS AN  
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE OZARKS. A HEALTHY WIND MAX FROM 850-700  
MB IS PROGGED TO REACH OUR NW ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON, BUT MIXING  
HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM LAYER AND  
FORTUNATELY KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 MPH. OTHERWISE, ELEVATED WILDFIRE  
CONDITIONS WOULD BE A CONCERN AS MINIMUM RH VALUES PLUMMET INTO THE  
LOWER 20S TODAY FROM THE BRUSH COUNTRY WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE. HIGH  
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO END UP 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST  
AREAS TODAY IN THIS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW.  
 
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING, A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL EDGE  
SOUTH THROUGH THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND COASTAL BEND BEFORE  
PROMPTLY WASHING OUT. INITIALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER  
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, BUT EVEN THIS SHOULDN'T CURB HIGHS FROM  
REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS.  
 
LONG TERM...  
 
QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF  
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL  
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE  
MIDWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL RETURN MOISTURE AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR  
RAIN. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD  
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS, PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH  
TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH THE AID OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH,  
BUT THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH MONDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE  
BOUNDARY AS PWATS INCREASE TO JUST OVER 1 INCH. WEAKENING IN THE CAP  
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY  
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES, MAINLY THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS  
AND COASTAL BEND, AS WELL AS THE GULF WATERS.  
 
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH  
TUESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S. PERSISTENT CAA SHOULD MAINTAIN COOL  
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS TO ROUGHLY REMAIN IN  
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLD DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS  
ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S/40S, WITH MODELS HINTING AT A FEW  
LOCATIONS IN LOW-LYING, RURAL AREAS FLIRTING NEAR FREEZING.  
 
ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM.  
MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON ACTIVITY TOWARD NEXT FRIDAY. THE ECMWF  
MAINTAINS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS, WHILE THE GFS BRINGS  
ANOTHER FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND  
MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN NOW.  
 
MARINE...  
 
PERIODS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BAYS AND WATERWAYS  
UNTIL MID MORNING, WITH SOME FOG ALSO EXTENDING OUT TO THE  
NEARSHORE WATERS AT TIMES. GENERALLY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL  
TURN NORTHERLY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A DECAYING COLD  
FRONT, BEFORE TURNING ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO STRONG LEVELS SATURDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON  
DELIVERS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 50 80 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 10  
VICTORIA 76 46 76 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 10  
LAREDO 79 52 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 0  
ALICE 81 48 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0  
ROCKPORT 74 54 75 63 77 / 0 0 0 0 10  
COTULLA 79 46 85 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 0  
KINGSVILLE 82 49 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 0  
NAVY CORPUS 73 56 75 65 76 / 0 0 0 0 10  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: BEE...COASTAL ARANSAS...COASTAL CALHOUN...COASTAL  
KLEBERG...COASTAL NUECES...COASTAL REFUGIO...COASTAL SAN  
PATRICIO...GOLIAD...INLAND CALHOUN...INLAND KLEBERG...  
INLAND NUECES...INLAND REFUGIO...INLAND SAN PATRICIO...JIM  
WELLS...LIVE OAK...VICTORIA.  
 
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...  
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR.  
 

 
 

 
 
MCZ/93...AVIATION  
 
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