309
FXUS64 KCRP 022320
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
- CONDITIONS
- MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION HAS GENERALLY WANED, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
COMPLETELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER CONDITIONS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE PRETTY WARM ONCE
AGAIN REACHING 105 OUT WEST BY THURSDAY WITH UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE.
CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY IF YOU ARE PLANNING ON SPENDING
EXTENDED PERIODS OUTSIDE. REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS. MORE HEAT SAFETY INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/HEAT.
THIS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT IT COULD LEAD TO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HINT THAT A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OFF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND TRACK TOWARDS TEXAS. CONCURRENTLY, THE MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO REGION OFF OF THE GULF. WITH THE REMNANT
VORTICITY IN THE REGION IN ADDITION TO THE OTHER FACTORS, EFFICIENT
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME IMPACTS TO SOUTH
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SETUPS LIKE THIS IN THE
PAST HAVE LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, SO THIS
DEFINITELY HAS OUR ATTENTION. WITH THIS STILL BEING A FEW DAYS OUT,
MODELS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN ON THE EXACT LOCATIONS AND TIMING THOUGH
RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE. CONFIDENCE IS REMAINING
PRETTY LOW ON RAINFALL TOTAL AMOUNTS BUT LATEST OUTPUTS SUGGEST
AROUND 2-3 INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL SITUATION AS
TIME PROGRESSES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF CYCLE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANCES
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS MOISTURE RETURNS OFF THE GULF LATER IN
THE WEEK, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 97 75 97 / 10 10 10 0
VICTORIA 72 98 71 100 / 10 10 0 0
LAREDO 76 102 77 105 / 0 10 0 0
ALICE 73 100 72 101 / 10 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 78 94 78 94 / 10 10 10 0
COTULLA 75 101 75 104 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 74 97 73 99 / 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 80 92 80 91 / 20 10 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...JCP/84
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