423
FXUS64 KCRP 131128
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
528 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2019
DISCUSSION
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AVIATION
LIFR IN DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FROM ALI-
CRP-VCT, BUT VFR SHOULD RAPIDLY RESUME HERE FROM 9 TO 10 AM AS
THIS SHALLOW LAYER ERODES AHEAD OF DRIER WESTERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH
SOME MODELS SHOW FOG REDEVELOPING TONIGHT AT THESE SAME TERMINALS,
THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THE MOMENT.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 348 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2019/
SHORT TERM...
DENSE FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHOKE CANYON-ALICE-PREMONT
LINE IS ON TRACK TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY
MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NUDGES EAST AND DELIVERS LIGHT
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS. ALOFT, NW FLOW WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE OZARKS. A HEALTHY WIND MAX FROM 850-700
MB IS PROGGED TO REACH OUR NW ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON, BUT MIXING
HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM LAYER AND
FORTUNATELY KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 MPH. OTHERWISE, ELEVATED WILDFIRE
CONDITIONS WOULD BE A CONCERN AS MINIMUM RH VALUES PLUMMET INTO THE
LOWER 20S TODAY FROM THE BRUSH COUNTRY WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE. HIGH
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO END UP 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST
AREAS TODAY IN THIS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING, A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL EDGE
SOUTH THROUGH THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND COASTAL BEND BEFORE
PROMPTLY WASHING OUT. INITIALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, BUT EVEN THIS SHOULDN'T CURB HIGHS FROM
REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM...
QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MIDWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL RETURN MOISTURE AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS, PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH THE AID OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH,
BUT THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE
BOUNDARY AS PWATS INCREASE TO JUST OVER 1 INCH. WEAKENING IN THE CAP
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES, MAINLY THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AND COASTAL BEND, AS WELL AS THE GULF WATERS.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
TUESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S. PERSISTENT CAA SHOULD MAINTAIN COOL
CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS TO ROUGHLY REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLD DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S/40S, WITH MODELS HINTING AT A FEW
LOCATIONS IN LOW-LYING, RURAL AREAS FLIRTING NEAR FREEZING.
ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM.
MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON ACTIVITY TOWARD NEXT FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS, WHILE THE GFS BRINGS
ANOTHER FRONT WITH RAIN CHANCES. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND
MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN NOW.
MARINE...
PERIODS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BAYS AND WATERWAYS
UNTIL MID MORNING, WITH SOME FOG ALSO EXTENDING OUT TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AT TIMES. GENERALLY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL
TURN NORTHERLY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A DECAYING COLD
FRONT, BEFORE TURNING ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO STRONG LEVELS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
DELIVERS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 50 80 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 10
VICTORIA 76 46 76 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 10
LAREDO 79 52 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 81 48 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 74 54 75 63 77 / 0 0 0 0 10
COTULLA 79 46 85 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 82 49 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 73 56 75 65 76 / 0 0 0 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEE...COASTAL ARANSAS...COASTAL CALHOUN...COASTAL
KLEBERG...COASTAL NUECES...COASTAL REFUGIO...COASTAL SAN
PATRICIO...GOLIAD...INLAND CALHOUN...INLAND KLEBERG...
INLAND NUECES...INLAND REFUGIO...INLAND SAN PATRICIO...JIM
WELLS...LIVE OAK...VICTORIA.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR.
MCZ/93...AVIATION
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