823
FXUS64 KCRP 181121
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
621 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2019
DISCUSSION
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AVIATION
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST VCT SHOULD RETAIN MOSTLY LOW VFR
CEILINGS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, BUT COT APPEARS LIKELY TO SEE AN
BRIEF MVFR LAYER DEVELOP SHORTLY. OTHERWISE, SPOTTY SHOWERS ABOUT
60 MILES NE-SE OF CRP MOVING N SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
VCT. CONFIDENCE IN LOWER CEILINGS RETURNING TONIGHT IS TOO LOW AT
THE MOMENT TO PINPOINT WITH THIS TAF CYCLE.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN AUG 18 2019/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NO SENSIBLE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER AWAIT SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AS A
TALL UPPER HIGH HOLDS CLOSE TO THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
00Z REGIONAL RAOB DATA INDICATED THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WAS
BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE COMPLETE WITH MODEST PWAT
DEFICITS. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS WEST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW, A SLOW INFLUX OF PWATS WILL ENSUE ON THE
FRINGES OF THE RIDGE. IT APPEARS A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS SHOULD
MATERIALIZE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SURVIVE INLAND MAINLY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF PORT ARANSAS. BY MIDDAY, MODELS FAVOR A FEW SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA ON
SOUTH, WITH CAPPING A BIT MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR REMAINING AREAS
WHERE POPS ARE KEPT SILENT FOR NOW. HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO
REACH 110 TO 115 ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS AND ADJACENT COASTAL BEND COUNTIES, WITH ANOTHER
REPEAT LIKELY IN THE CARDS FOR MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH
BY TUE LEADING TO A DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK, MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BETTER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK EVEN HIGHER BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PWATS ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH THU THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 2.2-2.4 INCHES BY FRI AS A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE TX COAST. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING FARTHER INLAND THAN THE ECMWF BY THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY, DID NOT GO AS HIGH ON POPS AS MODELS
ARE FORECASTING FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT DID GO WITH UP TO 50 PERCENT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED.
WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO REACH 105-109
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND LOWER FARTHER NORTH AND WEST.
MARINE...
PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCEC LEVELS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS
AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL TREND A BIT LESS
ON MONDAY AT GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LOWER, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING WEAKER ON
THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 98 79 97 79 95 / 0 0 10 20 10
VICTORIA 99 78 98 77 97 / 10 0 20 10 30
LAREDO 107 79 105 80 103 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALICE 103 78 102 77 100 / 0 0 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 91 82 90 82 90 / 10 10 20 20 20
COTULLA 106 78 104 78 103 / 0 0 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 100 79 99 78 98 / 0 0 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 93 82 92 82 91 / 10 10 10 20 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL KLEBERG...COASTAL NUECES...
INLAND KLEBERG...INLAND NUECES...JIM WELLS.
GM...NONE.
MCZ/93...AVIATION
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