562
FXUS64 KCRP 262311
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
611 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
SATURDAY.
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINING DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MEDIUM
TO HIGH (40-75%).
THE CONVECTION HAS WANED ACROSS S TX THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE, COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, THEN BRIEFLY DECREASE SATURDAY
EVENING.
PWATS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 2.0-2.4 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF S
TX. GIVEN THE NEARLY SATURATED FORECAST SOUNDING, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND COASTAL BEND IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF S TX IS IN A MARGINAL RISK.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO NUECES COUNTY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AND
LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A MINOR RISK OF HEAT
RELATED IMPACTS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY.
- MINOR TO MODERATE RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS NEXT WEEK.
ONE LAST DAY OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS IN STORE ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES. WPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,
GENERALLY EAST OF I-35, ON SUNDAY. SOILS WILL BE VERY SATURATED BY
SUNDAY SO IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO SEE FLOODING DEVELOP.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LIFT OFF TOWARDS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES
QUICKLY DROP OFF ON MONDAY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION
AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WITH THAT SAID, WE DO HAVE SOME LOW-END POPS
IN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATES AROUND THE
RIDGE.
HIGH TEMPS DAILY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE 105-109 RANGE WITH A
FEW SPOTS BRIEFLY REACH 110 AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
BORDERLINE VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES BEFORE DROPPING TO MVFR AROUND 08/09Z.
ACROSS THE WESTERN SITES, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THIS TAF CYCLE. RAIN WISE, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY SETUP, WENT WITH TEMPOS
AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
A GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH BRIEF MODERATE WINDS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS EACH
AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 86 75 86 77 / 50 70 60 60
VICTORIA 86 72 83 75 / 50 60 80 50
LAREDO 92 74 91 75 / 30 30 40 30
ALICE 88 73 88 75 / 60 60 70 50
ROCKPORT 88 75 88 78 / 50 70 60 60
COTULLA 92 74 91 76 / 20 10 50 30
KINGSVILLE 87 74 88 76 / 50 60 80 50
NAVY CORPUS 86 77 86 79 / 50 70 60 60
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ234-243>247-343>347-
443-447.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...JCP/84
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