206
FXUS64 KCRP 202317
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
517 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT AND INADVISABLE
THROUGHOUT SOUTH TEXAS.
- HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. PROTECT PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND PIPES.
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HAS BEGUN ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TODAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INTENSIFIES.
TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
(UPPER 30 TO LOW 40S), AND ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES INDICATE THAT
FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY FOR THE TIME BEING. AS A RESULT,
THIS COLD RAIN WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
TONIGHT, AS TEMPERATURES DROP, THE LIKELIHOOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS WILL INCREASE. HOWEVER, THE
ATMOSPHERIC SETUP IS HIGHLY COMPLEX. SMALL VARIATIONS IN
TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE, MAKING IT
CHALLENGING TO PINPOINT ANY DOMINANT TYPE WITH CONFIDENCE. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, MANY AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE DIFFERENT FORMS
OF PRECIPITATION. INLAND AREAS, WHERE COLDER PROFILES ARE
EXPECTED, ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SLEET OR SNOW, WHILE COASTAL
REGIONS WILL MAINLY CONTEND WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE OR RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW MORNING. NORTHERN AREAS,
INCLUDING THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS, MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW
POTENTIAL, WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. WHILE ICE
WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD THREAT, PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY
WILL LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS, WITH UP TO 0.25
INCH POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT, EVEN SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE CAN RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. ELEVATED
SURFACES, PARTICULARLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES POSE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED,
THEREFORE A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR OUR COASTAL ZONES AS WELL
AS THE ISLANDS. THESE WINDS WILL EXACERBATE THE ALREADY COLD
CONDITIONS, CREATING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING, MOISTURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD, BRINGING AN
END TO PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE MID-TO-UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED STRONG WINDS, DAYTIME WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE IN THE
TEENS TO THE UPPER 20S.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. ALTHOUGH
STRONG WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY SHOULD AID IN DRYING SURFACE,
ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE DAY COULD
REFREEZE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, LEADING TO SLICK/ICY SPOTS.
RESIDENTS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION IF NEEDING TO TRAVEL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGE:
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO 31 DEGREES
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF S TX. TEMPERATURES RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 32-39. FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BOTH
OF THOSE NIGHTS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND
APPROACHING 80 ACROSS THE WEST BY SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
BY THE WEEKEND, A 30-40KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS S TX. THIS WILL USHER DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1-1.2 INCHES. THE DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL BRING LOW (10-
30%) RAIN CHANCES TO THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
THE TAF FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS
VERY DIFFICULT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
SPECIFIC TIMING. WHILE IT IS CERTAIN THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND (LESS CERTAIN) SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS, THE "WHEN AND WHERE" IS MUCH MORE
DIFFICULT. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY GOING TO BE LIQUID FOR
THE NEXT 4 - 6 HOURS, HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT LRD AND COT DUE TO TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY APPROACHING FREEZING.
EXPECT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN APPEAR TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE, THOUGH SLEET IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
COAST. THOSE OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS MAY EXPERIENCE SNOW
SHOWERS, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
REGARDLESS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, FREEZING CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE WILL LEAD TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND,
POTENTIALLY, ROAD SURFACES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE STRONG TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
COLD AIR STREAMS INTO THE AREA. GUSTS 25 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z TUESDAY, WHEN NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW 12 KNOTS. MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IN AND AROUND ANY AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
PLEASE USE CAUTION IF FLYING IN, OVER, AND AROUND SOUTH TEXAS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
ROUGH TO DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH GALE CONDITIONS AND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS. VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE AND SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BAYS AND NEAR THE COAST.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO MODERATE LEVELS MID-WEEK. A WEAK
TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND. A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF RAIN IS FORECAST THURSDAY WITH
A LOW CHANCE THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 30 37 21 49 / 90 90 0 0
VICTORIA 27 36 16 47 / 90 80 0 0
LAREDO 30 39 23 53 / 90 40 0 0
ALICE 29 36 18 50 / 90 80 0 0
ROCKPORT 30 38 26 49 / 90 90 0 0
COTULLA 30 40 21 52 / 80 30 0 0
KINGSVILLE 29 36 19 50 / 90 80 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 33 39 31 49 / 90 90 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ229>234-
239>247-342>344-346-347.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ229-245-342>344-346-347.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
TXZ230>234-239>244-246-247.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR TXZ230>234-239>244-246-247.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
TXZ245-342>347-442-443-447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ231-232-
236-237-250-255-270-275.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...LS/77
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