687
FXUS64 KCRP 072020
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
320 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM BETWEEN DEL RIO AND EAGLE PASS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE EXTREME WESTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME A
STATIONARY SHEAR AXIS ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BUILDS WESTWARD. DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DECREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE EAST. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CONTINUED HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WITH READINGS AT OR ABOVE 110/ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE INLAND
COASTAL BEND AND OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY.
WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
BOTH NIGHTS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN BRUSH
COUNTRY.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS SHIFTS WEST
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. AS A RESULT, A SILENT 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, HEAT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL
(500 MB) HEIGHTS IN THE 594-596 DECAMETER RANGE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
TEMPERATURES RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 100S INLAND. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY AS HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINE
WITH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 114
DEGREES.
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES WITH
THE SAME PATTERN OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND NO PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT
AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY DROP HEAT
INDICES INTO THE 105-109 RANGE BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY BRINGS WEAK TO
MODERATE S/SE WINDS TRANSITIONING INTO MODERATE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
GOING INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND WILL LEAD
TO SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS
THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25
KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR CAUTION LEVELS FOR WATERS SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 95 80 94 79 / 10 10 10 0 0
VICTORIA 80 95 79 96 78 / 10 10 0 10 0
LAREDO 81 103 80 104 80 / 10 0 0 10 0
ALICE 79 99 79 99 78 / 10 10 0 10 0
ROCKPORT 82 90 83 91 82 / 10 10 10 10 0
COTULLA 79 102 79 104 78 / 10 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 79 98 79 97 78 / 10 10 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 81 91 82 90 81 / 10 10 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
MSH/98...HAA/72...LONG TERM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page