800  
FXUS64 KCRP 280505  
AFDCRP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
1105 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
NOW THAT THE SUN IS BACK, TEMPERATURES ARE OVER PERFORMING A BIT  
TODAY AND WE'RE SEEING SOME LOCATIONS HITTING THE LOWER 80S THIS  
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS ARE CREEPING BACK UPWARD TOO, WITH COASTAL  
LOCATIONS ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE  
WILL KICK IN STRONG ON MONDAY. BEFORE THAT THOUGH, WITH LIGHT  
WINDS TONIGHT, WILL EXPECT SOME RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP. A  
REINFORCING PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT MAKES THE COVERAGE OF  
FOG ATYPICAL. IF WE GET FOG AS FAR NORTH AS VICTORIA, IT WOULD  
LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE NIGHT, THEN GET CLEARED OUT AS THE  
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH, THIS AIRMASS MAY NOT HAVE  
ENOUGH STRENGTH TO PUSH OUT THE SURFACE MOISTURE THUS ALLOWING FOG  
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS DENSE FOG,  
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE AN  
ADVISORY WITH THE CURVE BALL OF THE REINFORCING RIDGE COMING INTO  
PLAY.  
 
WE'LL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA  
ON MONDAY, THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY DEVELOP FOR THE  
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY  
AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW TO RAPIDLY INCREASE  
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE 60S AREA WIDE. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN  
THE 70S, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS HITTING THE LOW 80S  
AGAIN.  
 
BY MONDAY NIGHT DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER  
70S. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIKELY WIDESPREAD SEA FOG IN BAYS AND NEARSHORE  
WATERS THAT WILL PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS. DENSE FOG  
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY MONDAY NIGHT AS  
WELL, AND WE MAY SEE ONE OF THOSE NIGHT WHERE LOWS OCCUR EARLY IN  
THE NIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY  
MORNING WITH THE MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SEA FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THE  
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK  
 
- NEXT COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING  
 
- GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING  
 
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING TO  
START THE PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEA FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
COAST, AS 70 DWPTS OVERRUN 60 DEGREE WATER TEMPS. LOW LEVEL WINDS  
BECOME SOUTHWEST TUE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING TEMPS TO HEAT UP INTO  
THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS (10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).  
WINDS RELAX TUESDAY NIGHT AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE  
REGION WHICH WILL COULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT,  
BEFORE THE STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS  
OVER THE GULF WATERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDY AND COLDER  
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH  
HIGHS IN 60S. MAY NEED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL AREAS IN  
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND A GALE WATCH FOR MARINE AREAS, AS  
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO  
35KTS OR GREATER.  
 
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, A MID/UPPER LEVEL S/W WILL MOVE  
INTO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INDUCING A MOIST RETURN FLOW OVER SOUTH  
TEXAS WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE COAST. ISENTROPIC  
UPGLIDE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY RESULTING IN  
LIGHT RAIN WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY AS A  
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. DWPTS ARE PROGGED TO  
REACH THE 70S AGAIN ON FRIDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE SEA FOG ONCE  
AGAIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
ALL SITES REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR ALI, WHERE SHALLOW GROUND FOG HAS  
DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO IFR CONDITIONS. FOG IS CONTINUING TO APPEAR  
LIKELY ACROSS ALI AND CRP, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE FOR FOG AT VCT HAS  
DECREASED JUST A BIT. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY  
15/16Z RETURNING ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS  
COULD RETURN TOMORROW NIGHT AROUND 04/05Z AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE  
AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOWERED CEILINGS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2022  
 
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT, THEN  
EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. FLOW WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE  
LEVELS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS MOISTURE FEEDS BACK INTO THE  
REGION, SEA FOG WILL BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD  
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA  
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND  
IT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST AND  
DECREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS BY THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 78 55 74 66 / 0 0 0 20  
VICTORIA 77 46 75 62 / 0 0 0 20  
LAREDO 79 50 78 64 / 0 0 0 0  
ALICE 81 52 78 65 / 0 0 0 10  
ROCKPORT 74 55 74 67 / 0 0 0 20  
COTULLA 80 45 77 61 / 0 0 0 10  
KINGSVILLE 81 54 77 66 / 0 0 0 10  
NAVY CORPUS 75 61 73 68 / 0 10 0 20  
 

 
   
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...PH  
LONG TERM....JM  
AVIATION...JCP/84  
 
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