274
FXUS64 KCRP 241103
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
603 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
- LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BECOMES INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL LOWS TRAVERSE THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THESE
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF TEXAS, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACHING THE REGION.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL
WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH LATE WEEK.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOWER CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BECOMING MODERATE, WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY, THEN
GENERALLY 80-85 DEGREES NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70.
P-ETSS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TIDAL LEVELS NEAR
1.6 FT MSL SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO RISE, POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2.0
FT MSL BY MONDAY. INCREASING SWELL PERIODS FROM AROUND 5 SECONDS
SATURDAY TO 8 SECONDS MONDAY MAY FURTHER ENHANCE COASTAL IMPACTS. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
DUE TO ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST WITH CLOUDS VARYING BETWEEN SCATTERED
AND BROKEN WITH BASES REMAINING AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR CRP AND ALI,
BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE E-SE TO 10-20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS, POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KNOTS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW (BF 4) WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY BECOMING FRESH (BF 5) THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. INCREASING
MOISTURE, HIGHER RH VALUES AND PERIODIC RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LIMIT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 85 70 83 67 / 20 10 20 0
VICTORIA 88 63 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 90 70 86 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 86 66 83 63 / 20 10 20 0
ROCKPORT 84 72 82 69 / 0 0 20 10
COTULLA 88 66 84 63 / 10 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 86 68 83 65 / 20 10 20 0
NAVY CORPUS 83 75 81 73 / 20 0 20 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BF/80
AVIATION...TE/81
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