608
FXUS64 KCRP 252339
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
639 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020
DISCUSSION
NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW CORRESPONDING TO THE 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A
MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS,
GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. 77 AND EAST OF STATE ROAD 16, PRIMARILY
DURING THE 09-13Z SATURDAY PERIOD. A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY MID/LATE SATURDAY MORNING. GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2020/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS GENERALLY QUIET ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH
VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF
THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PWAT, BUT EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN SOUTH. PWAT VALUES FOR OUR AREA
ARE BELOW 1 INCH WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND SHOULD
REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
INLAND AREAS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS SOME VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND COINCIDE WITH VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT
WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY COOL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 60S IN
THE NORTHEAST AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. WILL INCREASE A FEW DEGREES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. HAVE ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WITH WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO
BE RIGHT AROUND 2 FEET MSL ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND CALM WITH DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS. A MID-LEVEL LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE TX/LA BORDER WILL
KICK OUT A SHORTWAVE SUNDAY, WHICH DUE TO THE LOW PWATS IS NOT GOING
TO GIVE US ANYTHING PRECIP WISE. IN THE MEANTIME, A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT DIGS DOWN INTO TEXAS
WILL IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF A PROMISING COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT IMPACTING OUR AREA SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT THE EXACT TIMING AND
STRENGTH IS UNCERTAIN. HOPEFULLY, OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS THEY
WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS THIS LONG AWAITED FRONT WILL
BRING SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, HIGHS ON MONDAY COULD
BE NEAR NORMAL OR QUITE A BIT COOLER. IN ANY CASE, OVERNIGHT LOWS
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE LOOKING VERY NICE WITH INLAND LOCALES
EXPECTED TO DIP DOWN INTO THE 50S. MUCH DRIER AIR IS GOING TO FILTER
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE NICER
SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE...
A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH BRIEF SCEC CONDITIONS SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE SOMETIME ON
MONDAY WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MID
WEEK BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 89 76 91 76 / 0 10 10 0 0
VICTORIA 65 87 72 89 73 / 0 0 10 0 10
LAREDO 74 95 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 71 93 74 96 74 / 0 10 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 75 85 78 89 78 / 0 10 10 0 0
COTULLA 71 94 73 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 72 91 74 94 75 / 0 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 77 85 78 89 79 / 0 10 10 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG ISLANDS...NUECES
ISLANDS.
GM...NONE.
WC/87...AVIATION
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