439
FXUS64 KCRP 281740
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1140 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1128 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST AGAIN TODAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES, STRONG WINDS, AND A MODERATE
CHANCE OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
- A GALE WARNING WILL GO IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS LATE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
- WIND ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
- WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2025
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT (SUNDAY NIGHT). HIGHS
WILL SURPASS 80 DEGREES IN MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH THE BRUSH
COUNTRY HOVERING AROUND 85-87 DEGREES.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
AND TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET ABRUPTLY AND REMAIN COOLER THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 50S DURING THE
EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES OVER AS
ON SHORE FLOW RETURNS DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME AREAS
APPROACHING FREEZING. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION HAVE A
LOW (<20%) CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AT FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR. NOT RULING OUT
THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE DRAINAGE AREAS TO DROP TO OR BELOW
FREEZING BY DAYBREAK, THOUGH THIS WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO AT THE MOST. THE FRONT WILL BRING MODERATE RAIN CHANCES
WITH THE LOW POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS (20-25%) LOCATED ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH.
IN REGARDS TO THE WINDS, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS. THIS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF AN AREAWIDE WIND ADVISORY AND AN UPGRADE
TO A GALE WARNING DURING THIS PACKAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS (9-14 FT) ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS SWELL PERIODS (6-8 SECONDS) IN
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-12 KNOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE MAIN STORY THOUGH WILL BE THE FROPA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS BETWEEN 06-09Z MONDAY, WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 15-25 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-40 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. CIGS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO TEETER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. SINCE
WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY, I LEANED TOWARDS LOW-END VFR BEING
MORE LIKELY, BUT I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS SNEAK IN THERE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
EXPECT A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL RESULT A 60-75% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND IN WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, INCREASING TO A NEAR GALE TO
GALE STRENGTH (BF 7-8) THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION TO WINDS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 15 FT
OFFSHORE. A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM
MONDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN TUESDAY, RETURNING TO GENTLE
TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
40%, AND ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS (ERCS) IN THE 25TH-49TH
PERCENTILE WILL NEGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN MEDIUM CHANCES (50-60%) FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, MINIMUM RH
WILL DROP BELOW 30% (INTO THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH
COUNTRY) MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
THE VERY LOW RH AND ERCS IN THE 25TH-69TH PERCENTILE WILL ALLOW FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY AND
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 51 53 43 57 / 70 10 0 0
VICTORIA 48 51 40 57 / 50 10 0 0
LAREDO 52 54 45 60 / 60 30 0 0
ALICE 51 54 45 58 / 70 20 0 0
ROCKPORT 51 55 45 59 / 60 10 0 0
COTULLA 50 52 45 59 / 40 10 0 0
KINGSVILLE 51 54 44 58 / 60 20 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 55 56 47 57 / 60 10 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-237-
250-255-270-275.
DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...KRS/98
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