702
FXUS64 KCRP 242250
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
550 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021
AVIATION
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT,
DIMINISHING TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR ALI AND VCT, THOUGH THIS WILL BE
PATCHY. ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY EARLY MORNING, BUT WITH
SPARSE COVERAGE, WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN SHORTLY AFTER DAWN FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE GUSTY, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN OVERACHIEVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OFF OF BAFFIN BAY. AS
A RESULT, HEAT INDICES HAVE RAMPED UP INTO THE 110-112 RANGE. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS JIM WELLS, INLAND NUECES, AND
INLAND KLEBERG COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP BUT HAVE BEEN KEPT
AT BAY AS SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGING ALOFT TAKES CONTROL. ANOTHER MUGGY
NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. SIMILAR TO TODAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING STREAMER
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS, EVENTUALLY WORKING INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AS A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS
TAKES SHAPE. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR 100
DEGREES OUT WEST. WITH THAT SAID, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL TREND DOWN
A BIT TOMORROW SO NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AT THIS TIME...MORE IN THE 105-109 RANGE.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE GFS/ECMWF PREDICT AN UPPER INVERTED TROUGH TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY, THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SUNDAY, THEN OVER THE CWA MONDAY, BEFORE INTERACTING WITH THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS/TX. CONCUR WITH THE GFS THAT
COPIOUS MOISTURE, ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WILL ENTER THE CWA
SUNDAY, WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS (PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES)
LINGERING MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CONCUR WITH NATIONAL BLEND WHICH
SUGGESTS ISOLATED CONVECTION SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS,
SCATTERED CONVECTION AREAWIDE MONDAY, THE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TUESDAY-
THURSDAY. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-109F SATURDAY, 100F OR BELOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ETSS OUTPUT NOT SUGGESTIVE OF
COASTAL FLOODING SATURDAY-MONDAY.
MARINE...
WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STREAMER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF
WATERS TOMORROW MORNING. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO
MORE MODERATE LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AS A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY, AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 79 93 76 92 77 / 20 10 10 0 10
VICTORIA 78 93 76 92 75 / 10 20 0 10 10
LAREDO 79 101 78 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 77 96 75 95 75 / 10 10 10 0 10
ROCKPORT 82 91 81 91 79 / 20 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 78 100 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 79 95 77 93 75 / 10 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 84 93 82 89 80 / 20 20 10 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: INLAND KLEBERG...INLAND NUECES...JIM WELLS.
GM...NONE.
LS/77...AVIATION
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