467
FXUS64 KCRP 281800
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
100 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW CHANCE (15-35%) OF SEA BREEZE STORMS THURSDAY
- MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK THURSDAY.
A FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER S TX THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LINGERING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE WITH PWS AROUND 1.8" COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY
RESULT IN A FEW LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST.
POP CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 25%. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY AND COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (15-35% CHANCE) SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL MODEST INSTABILITY WITH
NO CAP BY AFTERNOON AND A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THUS EXPECT STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AROUND NOON AND MOVE SLOWLY INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY TODAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT BACK UP TO ON THURSDAY WITH MID-UPPER 70
DWPTS RETURNING AND THUS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- DAILY LOW CHANCES (15-25%) OF SEABREEZE STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MINOR HEAT RISK THIS WEEKEND WILL CLIMB BACK TO MAJOR RISK BY
TUESDAY.
TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE, THE SEABREEZE WILL INCREASE POPS
TO LOW CHANCES (15-25%) ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. WITH PWATS GENERALLY IN THE 1.5"-1.8" RANGE, A
FEW TENTHS IN RAINFALL MAY BE ABLE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CRAWL THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ELSEWHERE ON
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY, SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S REGION WIDE. FROM
SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN THEIR UPWARD TREND BACK TO THE LOW
100S IN THE BRUSH COUNTRY, WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING TOWARD THE
110F MARK BY TUESDAY.
THE HEAT RISK WILL REMAIN MINOR (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE MODERATE RISK SPREADS IN COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS FROM MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE
RESURGENCE OF MAJOR RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
RAIN HAS ENDED AND CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY BREAKING UP IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING MCS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BRUSH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS WHICH COULD AFFECT
TERMINALS FROM COT TO BEA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. CANT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. MVFR
CEILINGS RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MID THURSDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4) SOUTHEAST WIND WITH 3-4 FT SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, BECOMING LIGHT TO GENTLE (BF 2-3)
ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO MODERATE TO STRONG
(BF 4-6) WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FT THROUGH MID-WEEK. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 90 77 90 / 10 10 0 10
VICTORIA 73 89 74 89 / 20 30 0 20
LAREDO 76 97 76 95 / 20 10 10 20
ALICE 75 93 75 94 / 10 10 0 20
ROCKPORT 78 89 79 90 / 20 30 0 20
COTULLA 76 96 76 94 / 20 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 76 91 76 92 / 10 10 0 20
NAVY CORPUS 78 87 79 87 / 10 20 0 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JM/75
LONG TERM....AE/82
AVIATION...JM/75
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