380
FXUS64 KCRP 031122
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
522 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 519 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
_ ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THE SEA BREEZE KICKED IN EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING ALLOWING DEWPOINTS
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND.
MOST MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SREF
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES 1SM OR LESS ARE 15-30% WITH THE 30%
ACROSS BAFFIN BAY. IF FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND SATURDAY
MORNING, IT WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF, LIGHT AND PATCHY BETWEEN 11Z-14Z.
FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS BETTER ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS DUE
TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS COOLER SHELF WATERS
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE DRYLINE.
CURRENTLY, THE DRYLINE IS SITTING INLAND AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING ENDING ANY FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS LAND
AREAS. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO S TX MID TO LATE
SATURDAY MORNING, THEN BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A LIGHT WESTERLY DIRECTION TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH. GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST SAT AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
ACROSS S TX. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY, USHERING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK
ACROSS S TX WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THEN A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE RETURNS TO THE COASTAL BEND
AREAS BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK OR WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR THIS MORNING.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTH
BY MID-DAY WITH SOME MODERATE GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A FRESH (BF 5) SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, A GENTLE TO MODERATE (BF 3-4)
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP, THEN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER AIR WITH RH
VALUES 20-25% ACROSS A MAJORITY OF SOUTH TEXAS TO 30-40% ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND. THE VERY DRY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH ERC VALUES 50-89TH
PERCENTILE, MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 82 54 73 60 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 79 46 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 85 51 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 84 49 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 79 54 69 60 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 84 48 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 84 51 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 77 59 69 63 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ270-275.
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...PH/83
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