761
FXUS64 KCRP 212310
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
510 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020
DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DRIER AIR CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO
THE AREA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT,
THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW A LOWER CLOUD DECK TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 312 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THUS EXPECT A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITH LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS
TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THUS SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 60S
AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL APPROACH 60 DEGREES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BY SUN MORNING, THUS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SEA FOG
DEVELOPING. BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST
JUST YET.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTING AN
UPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/TX SUNDAY, THEN
LIFTS/WEAKENS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, WHILE ANOTHER
STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE NWRN CONUS SUNDAY, MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, THEN ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM, THE
GFS/ECMWF PREDICT PWAT VALUES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER,
DESPITE UPPER FORCING AND MOISTURE, NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED
SUNDAY OVER THE CWA OWING TO THERMODYNAMICS UNFAVORABLE FOR BOTH
SURFACE-BASED AND ELEVATED CONVECTION (GFS DETERMINISTIC.)
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL BEND MONDAY MORNING ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY (CORRESPONDING TO THE FIRST UPPER SYSTEM.) DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
BE MAINTAINED OWING TO ANOTHER YET STRONGER SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SECOND UPPER
SYSTEM. CONDITIONS CORRESPONDING TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITION MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN THURSDAY/ FRIDAY. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN CWA.
MARINE...
WILL LET SCAS EXPIRE AT 3PM (NEARSHORE) AND 6PM (OFFSHORE)
RESPECTIVELY AS RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL
BECOME WEAK TO MODERATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SEA FOG MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR MONDAY OWING TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER
DISTURBANCE. DRIER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. A STRONG SURGE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, WHICH
MAY RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 44 64 57 74 63 / 0 0 0 0 10
VICTORIA 37 64 52 71 61 / 0 0 0 10 20
LAREDO 44 67 56 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALICE 41 66 55 76 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 47 63 58 71 63 / 0 0 0 0 10
COTULLA 41 65 53 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 10
KINGSVILLE 42 66 55 76 63 / 0 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 50 63 59 71 63 / 0 0 0 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
LS/77...AVIATION
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