215
FXUS64 KEPZ 202128
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
328 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019
SYNOPSIS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
FUEL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
SAME PERIOD WILL LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY THE MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER HIGH RECEDES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALL AREAS. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, AGAIN LIMITING THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY THE
MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF OVER ARIZONA FOR NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF DEMING.
DISCUSSION
MODEST DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S HAVE ALLOWED SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TPW PRODUCT SHOWING PWS OF .8 - .9
INCHES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER UPPER HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA WITH
RIDGE BACK SOUTHWEST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO IS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO MOSTLY THE MOUNTAINS. MORNING EPZ SOUNDING SHOWING
SEVERAL SMALL SUBSIDENCE CAPS JUST ABOVE AND BELOW 500 MB, SO
LOWLANDS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO FORM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM OROGRAPHIC STORMS COULD HELP BEAT THE CAPS
OVER THE LOWLANDS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW UPPER HIGH REFORMING OVER
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY SO MUCH THE SAME; DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERSUS UPPER CAP/SUBSIDENCE=MAINLY ISOLATED
OROGRAPHIC THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING
UPPER HIGH TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO SE UTAH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN N/NE FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. AT THE SURFACE BACK
DOOR COOL FRONT WILL ENTER THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SECOND
PUSH AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEWPOINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S WHILE PWS WILL INCREASE TO
1.1-1.3 INCHES MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A BIT HIGHER TUESDAY. !.3
INCHES IS 140% OF NORMAL. SO EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ALWAYS WORRIED ABOUT
STABILIZING BEHIND COOL FRONT BUT GFS SHOWING GOOD LI/CAPE NUMBERS
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE STABILIZING SOME TUESDAY EVENING.
BOTTOM LINE...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INCREASED. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS TUESDAY HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 80S WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND FROPA. AND I COULD EVEN SEE
HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR THE LOWLANDS (MOS HIGHS ARE MOSTLY MID/UPPER
80S).
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...N/NE FLOW BEGINS PULLING IN DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR, BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS WILL
SINK BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S WHILE PWS DROP JUST BELOW AN INCH.
MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM THIS PERIOD WILL SEE LIMITED OROGRAPHIC
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW UPPER HIGH RECEDING
BACK OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA, GIVING OUR AREA A SOLID
NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE RECYCLED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
SO EXPECT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA WIDE.
AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z-22/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPORARY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO POSSIBLE TSRA. SKIES FEW-SCT100
SCT250 THROUGH OUT PERIOD WITH LOWER CEILINGS (BKN070CB) NEAR TSRA.
WINDS GENERALLY AOB 12KT. CONFIDENCE FOR VCTS REMAINS LOW FOR ALL
TERMINALS, AS CB COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO AREA
MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW LEVELS HAVE DRIED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS, THUS LIMITING THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND LIKELY SUNDAY AS WELL.
WHILE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP, THEY WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS
ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY. IN ADDITION
LIGHTER TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAIR TO POOR VENT CATEGORIES
FOR MOST AREAS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL NOT
ONLY ALLOW FOR IMPROVED VENTILLATION, BUT A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIP
AS STORM CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEK FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER WITH READINGS AT OR EVEN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL TO START THE NEW WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 102 75 93 / 10 10 20 30
SIERRA BLANCA 69 95 65 88 / 10 10 20 20
LAS CRUCES 71 100 69 92 / 10 10 20 30
ALAMOGORDO 71 100 67 92 / 20 20 30 50
CLOUDCROFT 51 79 52 69 / 30 50 50 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 99 70 92 / 20 20 20 50
SILVER CITY 64 94 63 88 / 20 30 20 70
DEMING 70 100 69 94 / 10 10 20 30
LORDSBURG 69 99 69 95 / 10 10 20 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 102 75 93 / 10 10 20 30
DELL CITY 73 103 70 93 / 20 10 30 20
FORT HANCOCK 76 104 73 96 / 10 10 20 20
LOMA LINDA 71 95 68 87 / 20 20 30 30
FABENS 76 102 73 94 / 10 10 20 20
SANTA TERESA 74 100 70 92 / 10 10 20 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 100 73 92 / 20 20 30 40
JORNADA RANGE 71 100 68 92 / 10 10 20 40
HATCH 72 102 69 94 / 10 10 20 40
COLUMBUS 74 101 73 95 / 10 10 20 30
OROGRANDE 73 99 69 91 / 20 20 30 40
MAYHILL 56 87 54 77 / 20 50 50 70
MESCALERO 55 88 53 78 / 30 50 50 70
TIMBERON 53 85 52 76 / 30 50 40 70
WINSTON 58 93 54 86 / 20 30 30 70
HILLSBORO 67 99 63 92 / 20 30 30 60
SPACEPORT 69 99 66 92 / 10 20 20 50
LAKE ROBERTS 55 95 53 89 / 20 30 30 70
HURLEY 63 96 61 90 / 20 20 30 60
CLIFF 60 100 58 93 / 20 20 20 60
MULE CREEK 59 97 58 92 / 10 10 20 60
FAYWOOD 66 96 65 89 / 20 20 30 60
ANIMAS 69 100 67 97 / 0 10 20 30
HACHITA 68 100 67 95 / 10 10 20 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 98 67 94 / 10 10 20 30
CLOVERDALE 64 92 63 89 / 10 10 20 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
HEFNER/LANEY
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