306
FXUS64 KEPZ 021137
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
437 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 424 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS, DAILY WARMING, AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON BREEZES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- A MINOR STORM SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH EARLY THURSDAY.
IT WILL PASS MOSTLY DRY, BUT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO THE NORTHERN GILA REGION, AND THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. THE REGION WILL SEE MODERATE COOLING
THURSDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS, MARGINALLY BREEZY AFTERNOONS, AND DAILY WARMING
RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 718 PM MST MON DEC 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EPAC, WEST OF THE BAJA, IS KEEPING A DEEP
AND DRY NW FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS, WITH OUR AREA
SEEING DRY AIR SWEEP OUT THE LINGERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM YESTERDAY'S EAST PUSH. SKIES HAVE BEEN BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY
CLEARER. THIS DRIER AIR, CLEARER SKIES, AND SLACKENING WINDS
OVERNIGHT, WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
(OUTSIDE OF THE EL PASO URBAN HEAT ISLAND, AND LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS) SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY, WE REMAIN UNDER THE DRY NW/W FLOW PATTERN, BUT
BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH, AS IT STARTS
TO DIG SE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL INDUCE SOME SURFACE
TROUGHING ACROSS E NM, AND WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT BACK WESTERLY,
AND BECOME BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WON'T BE STRONG, JUST
GETTING UP INTO THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
PERFECTLY WITHIN THE WINDOW OF THE TERM "BREEZY". OTHERWISE, WE
WILL SEE OUR TEMPS CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
DAILY AVERAGE, AND SKIES WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY.
WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SAG SOUTH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. AS IT APPROACHES WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
WARMING IN MARGINALLY WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASES IN UPPER
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER ANY
PART OF OUR CWA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP
AND SHEAR ACROSS N NM. AS IT DOES WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE SYSTEMS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. THE SYSTEM IS
SOMEWHAT COMPACT AND MOISTURE STARVED, AND OUR REGION HAS NO
MOISTURE TO OFFER. THUS, WE CONTINUE THE TREND OF TRIMMING POPS
OUT AND DOWN, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW OVER NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE GILA REGION AND THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. THE WINDOW FOR
PCPN IS SHORT-LIVED, AND THE PCPN RATES WILL BE LOW, THUS THE
RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW AND SPOTTY AT BEST. IT WILL BE OUR
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL BACK THE
THE AVERAGE FOR THE DAY AS THE STORM PASSES.
THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY AND MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, PULLING DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE OUT OF
OUR REGION, WITH IT. FIRST THE GILA DRIES, THEN THE SACS. FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST CYCLE, WE WILL FALL BACK UNDER THE SAME DRY
NW FLOW PATTERN WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER. THIS WILL MEAN DRY
CONDITIONS, DAILY WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL, WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 424 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SKC. LIGHT AND
VRB WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME WEST SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MILD AFTERNOON BREEZINESS (10-15G20-25KT). LIGHT WINDS AFTER
SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
LOW FIRE DANGER AS MIN RH VALUES STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WITH 20 FOOT WINDS STAYING BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS (GENERALLY LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY). DRY WEATHER PERSISTS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING,
A QUICK PASSING SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW END CHANCES FOR LOWLAND RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
NOT IMPACTFUL. FRIDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE VERY QUIET WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
BUT WILL BECOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 42 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 63 35 54 32 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 60 35 56 30 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 61 33 55 28 / 0 0 0 20
CLOUDCROFT 40 21 36 19 / 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 33 53 29 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 52 28 53 27 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 63 34 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 60 30 58 28 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 43 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 66 30 55 26 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 71 41 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 35 52 34 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 68 40 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 63 38 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 40 58 36 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 60 31 56 25 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 63 33 59 25 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 66 39 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 61 34 55 28 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 53 22 48 24 / 0 0 0 20
MESCALERO 51 23 47 21 / 0 0 0 30
TIMBERON 48 22 45 21 / 0 0 0 20
WINSTON 53 21 49 18 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 59 30 54 28 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 60 30 55 23 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 51 23 53 22 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 55 28 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 58 27 59 25 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 53 24 55 23 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 55 31 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 63 33 59 30 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 62 33 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 35 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 57 36 56 35 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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