938
FXUS64 KEPZ 151643
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
943 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 945 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WITH NO RAIN CHANCES
INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, THEN A RAPID WARMUP AFTER TUESDAY.
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER SEVENTIES WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS
FOR MID DECEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
THE CONUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED WITH A RIDGE WEST / TROUGH EAST
PATTERN, WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR WHAT FEELS LIKE FOREVER. TO
MIX THINGS UP A LITTLE, WE HAVE A S/W TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DESERT
SW. IT IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED, BUT IT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
HIGH CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. WE REMAIN WITHIN THE EDGE OF A COLDER
AIR MASS, SO HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE S/W TROUGH WILL EXIT THE STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING, TAKING THE CLOUDS WITH IT. A VERY SLOWLY DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN A VERY SLOW TRANSITION TO OUR WEATHER
PATTERN AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY WITH THE WARMEST DAY
PROJECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. CHRISTMAS LOOKS WARM AND DRY WITH THE
25TH PERCENTILE ALREADY WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NBM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 945 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH BKN-OVC200-250 BECOMING SKC WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH DIRECTION FAVORING NORTH AT
KELP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 945 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
A DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON'S MIN RH WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FOR TUESDAY, WHICH WILL
PUSH MIN RH VALUES INTO THE MID TEENS. THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER TODAY.
AS MENTIONED, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP VENTING IN THE POOR TO FAIR
CATEGORY MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL HELP FOSTER FAIR TO GOOD VENT RATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 38 70 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 36 65 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 31 66 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 31 66 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 30 47 29 50 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 34 65 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 65 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 33 71 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 31 68 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 39 68 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 28 70 26 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 37 71 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 61 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 35 69 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 33 67 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 39 68 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 28 66 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 30 70 32 70 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 35 72 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 31 64 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 36 62 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 31 58 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 31 57 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 29 64 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 36 68 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 28 65 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 31 65 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 33 68 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 27 70 31 71 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 31 68 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 36 68 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 34 70 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 31 70 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 72 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 42 67 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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