865
FXUS64 KEPZ 191141
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
441 AM MST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 AM MST WED NOV 19 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, FOCUSING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH RAIN TOTALS ONE TO TWO
INCHES.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 9,000 FEET. NEW RAIN AMOUNTS 0.50-0.75 INCHES
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES TIMED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 943 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE BORDERLAND RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW WED/THU IS CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
SOCAL AND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING PRETTY GOOD
AREAWIDE COVERAGE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY VALUES
ARE LACKLUSTER WITH VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG, BUT PLENTY OF
SHEAR WILL BE AROUND (0-6KM SHEAR OF 50-75KT). OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY WE CAN EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS BUT
TURNS MORE CONVECTIVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE BUT COULD SEE SOME LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS BRINGING THE THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
HAIL. MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT THANKFULLY THE ADDED
SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THESE STORMS TO MOVE OFF AN AREA QUICKLY BEFORE
CAUSING ANY FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER, IF STORMS BEGIN BACK BUILDING
OVER AN AREA - THAT COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH (ABOVE 9500') ON
WEDNESDAY BUT LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS START TO CRASH LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WOULD BRING SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.
SNOW LEVELS START AT AROUND 9000' WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT DROP TO
AROUND 8000' IN THE GILA REGION. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT SNOW LEVELS
GET TO AROUND 7000' BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA. CURRENT SNOW TOTALS LOOK LIGHT WITH TOTALS ANYWHERE FROM
JUST A COATING TO AN INCH OR TWO ON THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
BLACK RANGE. THE SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL SEE LIGHT TOTALS AS WELL (A
COATING TO AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE). IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO PERSIST LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED THURSDAY TO WHAT WE'LL SEE
WEDNESDAY WHERE THERE'S PLENTY OF SHEAR TO WORK WITH BUT NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY, AND INSTABILITY VALUES LOOK JUST A BIT LESS THAN
WEDNESDAY BUT SIMILAR HAZARDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE OUT LATE THURSDAY WHICH MAY KEEP SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT FRIDAY LOOKS MUCH
QUIETER WITH LIGHT WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS, AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE EVENING SATURDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM
LOOKS TO TAKE A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY IN THE WAY IT MAKES IT'S WAY
ONSHORE OVER SOCAL/NORTHERN BAJA AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER
CENTRAL NM. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL. SNOW TOTALS LOOK EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW COMPARED
TO THE FIRST SYSTEM. LOOKING LIKE A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY FOR THE AREA
MOUNTAINS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER BREAK THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED NOV 19 2025
SCATTERED -SHRA THIS MORNING WITH SKIES SCT-BKN050 OVC080. TS
DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z, PRIMARILY ACROSS W NM WITH MORE ISOLATED
SHRA ALONG RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF TEMPORARY
IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO RA. SHRA LIKELY FOR LOCAL TAF SITES BETWEEN
06-12Z THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS MAY NEED TO BE
INCLUDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. SURFACE WINDS PREVAILING 150-180
THIS AFTERNOON AOB 10 KNOTS, THEN VARIABLE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST WED NOV 19 2025
LOW FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR GNF WHERE ISOLATED
FLOODING MAY OCCUR. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. OVERNIGHT RAINS
EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR BOTH GNF/LNF AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.
CONDITIONS BECOMING DRY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20
MPH LEADING TO GOOD VENTILATION. COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION (ABOVE
8000 FEET) SNOW EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 64 42 63 / 80 80 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 47 62 35 60 / 70 80 0 0
LAS CRUCES 46 58 33 58 / 90 70 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 44 58 33 58 / 80 80 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 29 38 22 42 / 80 80 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 56 35 57 / 90 70 0 0
SILVER CITY 39 48 30 53 / 90 80 0 0
DEMING 46 59 33 61 / 80 60 0 0
LORDSBURG 44 54 33 58 / 80 60 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 61 41 60 / 80 80 0 0
DELL CITY 47 64 35 64 / 60 70 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 52 69 39 67 / 70 80 0 0
LOMA LINDA 45 55 36 55 / 80 80 0 0
FABENS 51 65 38 63 / 70 70 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 59 37 59 / 80 80 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 49 59 39 60 / 80 80 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 57 32 58 / 90 80 0 0
HATCH 47 60 32 61 / 90 70 0 0
COLUMBUS 49 61 38 62 / 80 50 0 0
OROGRANDE 47 58 33 57 / 80 80 0 0
MAYHILL 37 49 27 56 / 70 70 0 0
MESCALERO 33 49 25 52 / 80 80 0 0
TIMBERON 32 46 23 49 / 80 80 0 0
WINSTON 34 49 23 52 / 90 70 0 0
HILLSBORO 42 55 32 57 / 90 70 0 0
SPACEPORT 43 56 29 57 / 90 80 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 35 47 25 55 / 90 80 0 0
HURLEY 39 51 29 56 / 90 70 0 0
CLIFF 42 54 30 59 / 80 70 0 0
MULE CREEK 39 49 29 55 / 90 80 0 0
FAYWOOD 42 51 31 55 / 90 70 0 0
ANIMAS 44 56 33 60 / 80 40 0 0
HACHITA 44 56 32 59 / 80 50 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 56 33 60 / 70 40 0 0
CLOVERDALE 41 48 35 55 / 80 50 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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