405
FXUS64 KEPZ 051132
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
532 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
..UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SKIES SCT/BKN100-250
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR KELP/KLRU, SKC/FEW FOR KTCS AND
KDMN. TS/SH DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE SPREADING TO THE LOWLANDS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE
IF STORMS DEVELOP NEAR TERMINALS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION...308 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022
SYNOPSIS
MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES, ARROYOS, SMALL STREAMS AND
CITY ROADWAYS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY WET SHORT TERM FORECAST.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WILL PREVIOUS SHORT TERM
FORECASTS, WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LOCKED
IN ACROSS THE BORDERLAND REGION, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL
TRANSPORT MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLUMN OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE SATURATED WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.00-1.30 INCHES. WHILE AT THE SURFACE, DEW POINT
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE MARK THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THE SAME QUESTIONS AFOREMENTIONED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS, WILL
THERE BE UPPER LEVEL FORCING/LIFTING MECHANISM THAT CAN TAP INTO THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT'S LOCKED IN ACROSS THE AREA? MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA MADRES IN NORTHERN
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY INITIATE AREAS OF
ENERGY, MCV-LIKE FEATURES THAT WOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THIS TYPE OF ENERGY COULD BE THE SOURCE AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAMS CONTINUE TO
SHOW INITIATION OVER AREA MOUNTAINS, BEFORE PROPAGATING AND
CONGEALING OVER THE LOWLANDS. WITH VERY LITTLE STEERING FLOW ALOFT
AND SATURATED SOILS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS), STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.
WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A FEW DEGREES
BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS
DAYS AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO CUT OFF
ACCESS TO MOISTURE SOURCES. HOWEVER, A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE FLOW UNDER THE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MOISTURE LEVELS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO
GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD
TO NEXT MONDAY.
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER LOWLAND
DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS. RAIN COVERAGE WILL ALSO BE GREATER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING ABOVE NORMALS AT 1.2 TO 1.4
INCHES. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES OF
AROUND AN INCH BY THE WEEKEND THAT WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SOMEWHAT AND LIMIT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE REDUCED
MOISTURE AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND CITIES.
THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK. THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOWER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVERALL NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
LOWLANDS. HOWEVER, THE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRONGER DEVELOPING STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
ONCE THE CAP IS BROKEN BY DAY TIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR WITH SCT-BKN100 LAYERS 250. ISOL OVC060CB 5SM -TSRA...
MAINLY EAST OF DEMING UNTIL AROUND 09Z. GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN
AFTER 17Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SCATTERED OVC050 5SM
-TSRA. THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING TO THE LOWLANDS AFTER 20Z.
FIRE WEATHER
WITH THE MONSOON IN FULL SWING ACROSS THE REGION, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS REMAIN LOW. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THROUGH
THE COMING DAYS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST TOMORROW (POTENTIALLY THURSDAY). MIN RH VALUES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL BE GREATER THAN 30% FOR MOST LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE GREAT AREAWIDE (>60%).
AFOREMENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL POSE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WITHIN/AROUND BURN SCAR
AREAS. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT,
EXCEPT IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS, WHERE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS COULD BE PRESENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 95 73 93 72 / 10 40 20 30
SIERRA BLANCA 89 68 86 68 / 50 40 30 30
LAS CRUCES 94 69 92 68 / 0 20 20 20
ALAMOGORDO 92 68 91 69 / 10 20 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 69 52 70 52 / 40 20 50 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 93 69 90 69 / 20 10 30 20
SILVER CITY 84 63 81 63 / 20 10 30 20
DEMING 94 68 90 68 / 20 20 20 20
LORDSBURG 91 68 88 68 / 10 10 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 93 72 91 72 / 10 40 20 30
DELL CITY 94 69 91 68 / 30 30 30 30
FORT HANCOCK 95 70 93 70 / 40 50 30 40
LOMA LINDA 87 65 86 66 / 20 40 30 30
FABENS 95 71 93 70 / 20 40 20 30
SANTA TERESA 92 70 90 69 / 10 30 20 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 91 72 90 73 / 10 20 30 30
JORNADA RANGE 92 68 91 68 / 20 20 20 20
HATCH 94 69 92 68 / 10 20 20 20
COLUMBUS 93 70 90 69 / 20 30 20 30
OROGRANDE 91 69 91 69 / 20 20 30 30
MAYHILL 80 57 80 58 / 50 20 50 30
MESCALERO 79 56 79 57 / 40 20 50 20
TIMBERON 78 56 78 57 / 40 20 40 30
WINSTON 85 62 82 61 / 30 10 40 20
HILLSBORO 90 65 87 65 / 20 20 30 20
SPACEPORT 92 67 90 67 / 10 20 20 20
LAKE ROBERTS 84 59 81 59 / 20 10 40 20
HURLEY 90 65 88 64 / 10 10 30 20
CLIFF 92 60 89 60 / 10 10 30 20
MULE CREEK 86 63 85 62 / 20 10 20 20
FAYWOOD 88 65 85 65 / 20 20 30 20
ANIMAS 91 66 88 66 / 20 10 20 20
HACHITA 90 67 87 66 / 20 20 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 90 65 88 65 / 30 20 30 30
CLOVERDALE 86 63 84 62 / 20 20 30 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
38-ROGERS/04
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