851  
FXUS64 KEPZ 231139  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
539 AM MDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
12Z TAF CYCLE  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL OF THE  
TAF SITES WITH CIG FEW110-BKN250 SKC. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE  
NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS THROUGH MID DAY.  
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KTS.  
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z ACROSS ALL  
TERMINALS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THEREAFTER WITH THE FLOW FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS AT ABOUT 2000 FEET AGL MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM  
06Z TO 12Z AT KELP.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...311 AM MDT SAT OCT 23 2021
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE  
THE SEASONAL NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY AND WILL  
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY  
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS  
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WEAK SYSTEM IS  
CAUSING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF EL PASO,  
HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. LIMITED MOISTURE  
SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR ZERO FOR THOSE AREAS. AS THE  
SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF WITH THE SYSTEM.  
 
THE REGION REMAINS IN A STEADY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.  
DRY, WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK  
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT WEST TO  
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS  
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  
WIND SPEED INCREASES WILL BE AIDED BY A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER SOUTH  
EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONGER ALONG EAST FACING  
SLOPES AND THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS AND PASSES.  
 
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL  
WITH LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH 70S MOUNTAINS.  
THERE WILL BE VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS  
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS PUSHED ALONG BY THE WESTERLY FLOW. DRY  
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.  
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL LINGER ALONG EAST SLOPES OF LOCAL MOUNTAINS  
TILL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY  
AN ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED JET STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS  
NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, THE ACTIVE  
JET STREAM WON'T OFFER ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE  
FORECAST AREA, IT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES AROUND THE THE  
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS AND OCCASIONAL BREEZY  
TO WINDY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE TRANSITION DAYS,  
REMAINING RELATIVELY QUIET. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTING  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING USE BREEZY WINDS IN  
THE SHORT TERM), A FLATTENED OUT RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE  
WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE BEAUTIFUL WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES  
RIGHT AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN THE LOWLANDS. ON MONDAY,  
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS A PACIFIC TROUGH  
MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL PUT THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE TWO  
FEATURES WITH PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,  
ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS TO SURGE NORTH UP THE SPINE OF THE  
ROCKIES AT 850MB. THIS COULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS  
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE  
SEASONAL NORMAL.  
 
OUR FOCUS TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING  
IMPACTS TO THE BORDERLAND REGION ON TUESDAY. A MATURE MID-LATITUDE  
CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THE  
PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY MOVE ON SHORE DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY  
TIMEFRAME. AS IT TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN US, THE TROUGH  
AXIS WILL BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY OVER  
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS WE'VE MOVED  
CLOSER TO THIS SPECIFIC TIMEFRAME, THE TWO GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC  
MODELS (GFS/ECMWF) CONTINUE TO SHOW GRADUAL TRENDS WITH AGREEMENT.  
HOWEVER, DISCREPANCIES ARISE WITH REGARD TO TIMING. THE GFS  
CONTINUES TO SHOW A FASTER PROGRESSION WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO  
THE ECMWF (GFS IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS DUE TO THE  
TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE  
DAY). TAKING A LOOK AT THE WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS, ECMWF  
DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND THE CLUSTER IT FELL INTO SEEMED TO BE IN  
LINE WITH THE TOTAL MEAN BETWEEN ALL CLUSTERS. THAT BEING SAID, I  
LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND BUMPED THE WIND FIELDS DOWN A FEW  
KNOTS FROM THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE. EVEN THOUGH I LEANED CLOSER  
TOWARD THE ECMWF (WEAKER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS), WINDS COULD COME  
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS. REGARDLESS,  
BREEZY TO LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH  
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH OF  
THE AREA, A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GILA, WERE THE MOST  
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PLACED.  
 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEPART ON WEDNESDAY AND IN RESPONSE,  
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION.  
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN  
THE MIDDLE TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH  
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S LOWLANDS  
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS PICK UP  
INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE SATURDAY, AND REMAIN LIGHT SUNDAY  
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE  
NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS TO  
THE BORDERLAND. WINDS RELAX THEREAFTER TO END THE WEEK WITH  
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. VENT RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT SATURDAY AND  
TUESDAY, AND GOOD ON AVERAGE THE REMAINING DAYS IN-BETWEEN.  
 

 
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 84 57 82 55 / 0 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 79 51 76 51 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 81 48 80 48 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 81 50 79 51 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 58 38 57 40 / 0 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 80 49 79 49 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 69 46 69 48 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 81 48 80 47 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 78 48 76 49 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 84 56 82 56 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 84 51 81 49 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 86 52 84 52 / 0 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 76 51 74 52 / 0 0 0 0  
FABENS 84 54 82 52 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 81 49 79 49 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 81 56 80 54 / 0 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 79 50 79 50 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 81 49 80 49 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 81 51 80 49 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 81 49 79 51 / 0 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 70 45 69 45 / 0 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 69 43 68 42 / 0 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 67 41 66 41 / 0 0 0 0  
WINSTON 72 38 74 39 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 76 48 77 49 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 79 46 79 48 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 69 40 70 41 / 0 0 0 0  
HURLEY 73 43 73 44 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 78 38 77 40 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 71 44 71 45 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 73 47 73 47 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 80 47 79 47 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 79 48 78 47 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 78 48 79 48 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 73 47 73 49 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
04-LUNDEEN/38/04  
 
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