611
FXUS64 KEPZ 291140
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
440 AM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 431 AM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH DRY
AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING EASTERLY
BREEZINESS AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING BELOW NORMAL.
- DRY CONDITIONS, GENTLE WARMING, AND LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 911 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FOR SAT, KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LIGHT WEST WINDS UNDER FAIR SKIES. A COLD FRONT DIVES DOWN THE
PLAINS ON SAT, ARRIVING IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, BRINGING BREEZY
EAST WINDS IN THE EARLY AM SUN. WEST MTN SLOPES WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST GUSTS, ESPECIALLY THE HUECOS, BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT
DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. NBM POST-FRONTAL
WINDS SEEMED A BIT TOO LIGHT, SO WENT WITH 75TH %-ILE, WHICH
BROUGHT GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH ALONG WEST SLOPES. THE FRONT ISN'T
FORECAST TO BRING TERRIBLY COLD AIR, BUT ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN
TEMPS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY MON,
RESULTING IN MODESTLY BREEZY WEST WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR US FROM THIS SYSTEM AS PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN TO THE NORTH BEFORE THE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DIVING DOWN THE ROCKIES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING WHAT THE SYSTEM DOES WHEN IT
REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND WED. THE LREF CONSENSUS
SHOWS A LOBE OF ENERGY CUTTING OFF AND KIND OF RETROGRADING OFF
THE SOCAL COAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, SCOOPING UP SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP
THE TROUGH IN THE MAIN FLOW AND GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW OF PRECIP
IN THE THU TIMEFRAME. LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE FOR LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH A WETTER PATTERN SETTING UP, BUT TIMING AND IMPACTS
ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. BREEZY WEST WINDS AND LIGHT MTN
SNOW ARE ON THE TABLE FOR LATER NEXT WEEK. TEMPS HOLD NEAR NORMAL
NEXT WEEK UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AND SUBTLE CHANGES IN HEIGHTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SKC-FEW250. WINDS WILL BE STEADY
THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS BUT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE WITH SPEEDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
DIRECTION WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST. LATE IN THE PERIOD, MAINLY
AFTER 6Z, A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S.
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR TO FAIR VENTING. LATER THIS EVENING
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST, WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
BRING IMPROVEMENTS TO MINIMUM RH VALUES TO AROUND 30%. OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (20-30%) IS THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 40 60 42 66 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 32 51 33 62 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 35 55 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 34 57 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 22 40 27 39 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 56 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 54 33 53 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 35 59 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 35 60 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 41 57 42 63 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 32 52 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 38 61 39 70 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 32 49 37 57 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 39 60 38 66 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 37 56 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 39 56 40 62 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 32 55 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 32 59 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 38 61 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 35 54 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 22 50 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 24 51 30 50 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 22 44 26 48 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 27 54 28 51 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 35 57 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 30 55 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 30 56 30 53 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 33 55 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 32 63 32 60 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 32 59 31 56 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 35 53 34 56 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 36 64 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 34 60 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 65 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 41 61 40 58 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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