351
FXUS64 KEPZ 172329
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
529 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THROUGH FRIDAY,
FAVORING NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY AND
BECOMING AREAWIDE FRIDAY.
- MOISTURE LEVELS TREND DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR
LOWERING STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH A WARM-UP OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN LOW TO OUR NORTH AND RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NW. WE WILL
STILL HAVE SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY
LIMIT COVERAGE. THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF
AZ DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FEEL LIKE THERE'S ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND THAT THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM GOING OVER THE WEST. THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE SW OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THU AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS EAST
OF THE RGV THAN TODAY. NBM TEMPS SEEMED TOO WARM IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND H85 TEMPS. MET AND MAV
TEMPS LOOKED MORE REASONABLE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SO DID LOWER
SEVERAL DEGREES, ESPECIALLY EAST. \
GOING INTO FRI, THERE WILL BE A WEAK RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER THE
AREA, BUT A DISTURBANCE AGAIN MOVING OUT OF AZ ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A LAST ROUND OF STORMS TO THE ENTIRE AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT MID LEVEL FLOW DOES INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
AND STORM MOTION SHOULD BE MUCH QUICKER THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY
SEEING.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND THERE MAY BE A STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWER AROUND
BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OFF TO THE
WEST WITH NW FLOW BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE RISE AS WELL WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
BY SUNDAY AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. IT WILL
FEEL LIKE WE ARE BACK IN MARCH ON SUNDAY WITH SOME BREEZY WNW
WINDS PICKING UP. RECORD HIGHS FOR KELP ARE 97 OR 98 FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK, SO TYING OR BREAKING A RECORD BY A DEGREE OR TWO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP ON THE HANDLING OF
HOW A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS BY MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE A RIDGE
OFF TO THE WEST WITH AN UPPER LOW STALLING OUT OVER THE MIDWEST.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LOW PUSHES, THERE WILL BE SOME
KIND OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NEARBY. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR IT
MOVING FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD START TO COOL TEMPS DOWN OVER AT
LEAST EASTERN ZONES, BUT FOR NOW KEPT CLOSE TO THE NBM TEMPS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VCSH AND -RA POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KELP AND KTCS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 01-02Z, GIVING WAY TO SCT TO BKN SKIES. CIGS WILL
VARY WITH SCT AT 10-15KFT AND BKN AT 20-25KFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING VRB IN
DIRECTION AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2025
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREA MOUNTAINS EACH DAY.
ISOLATED STORMS FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME MUCH DRIER AIR.
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY WILL BE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR THE
LOWLANDS WITH RH'S FALLING INTO THE TEENS ALMOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
THE SACS BY MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
SUNDAY WILL SEE SOME BREEZINESS BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 84 67 89 / 20 20 20 10
SIERRA BLANCA 63 80 59 85 / 20 30 20 20
LAS CRUCES 64 83 61 85 / 20 20 20 30
ALAMOGORDO 63 83 61 86 / 10 30 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 47 62 46 62 / 10 50 20 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 83 61 81 / 20 20 20 50
SILVER CITY 58 79 56 78 / 30 40 40 70
DEMING 63 84 62 87 / 20 30 30 40
LORDSBURG 64 85 62 84 / 20 40 30 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 83 68 88 / 20 20 20 20
DELL CITY 62 83 61 87 / 10 30 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 66 85 67 90 / 20 30 20 20
LOMA LINDA 61 78 61 81 / 20 30 20 20
FABENS 66 83 67 90 / 20 20 20 10
SANTA TERESA 65 83 64 87 / 20 20 20 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 82 64 85 / 20 30 20 30
JORNADA RANGE 64 83 62 84 / 20 30 20 40
HATCH 64 85 62 87 / 20 30 30 40
COLUMBUS 64 85 64 88 / 20 30 30 20
OROGRANDE 61 85 61 85 / 20 30 20 30
MAYHILL 51 73 52 72 / 10 50 20 50
MESCALERO 50 75 51 75 / 20 50 20 50
TIMBERON 50 71 49 71 / 20 40 20 40
WINSTON 53 78 50 75 / 30 30 30 70
HILLSBORO 59 82 57 83 / 30 30 30 60
SPACEPORT 62 84 60 83 / 20 20 20 50
LAKE ROBERTS 52 79 53 78 / 30 50 40 80
HURLEY 60 80 57 80 / 30 40 40 60
CLIFF 59 81 56 83 / 30 40 40 70
MULE CREEK 57 79 54 80 / 20 40 30 70
FAYWOOD 60 80 58 80 / 30 40 30 50
ANIMAS 63 85 61 85 / 30 40 30 50
HACHITA 63 84 61 85 / 30 40 30 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 84 60 85 / 30 40 30 40
CLOVERDALE 61 80 58 80 / 30 50 30 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38-ROGERS
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