977
FXUS64 KEPZ 180511
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1011 PM MST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 905 PM MST MON NOV 17 2025
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID-NOVEMBER. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 905 PM MST MON NOV 17 2025
WE WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON TUESDAY, WE WILL HAVE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE BUT CLOSER
TO AVERAGE WEST OF THE RIVER. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL INCREASE OUR MOISTURE,
LOWER OUR CLOUDS AND GIVE US A CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE
FOR RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE PRETTY
WARM AND THAT WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 9,000 FEET, SO ANY
PRESENTATION THAT FALLS, EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE LIQUID. BUT THEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY THE COOLER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AND DROP THE SNOW LEVELS, BUT AT THE
SAME TIME THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WRAP UP. SO
WHILE I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW IN AREA MOUNTAINS, I DON'T
THINK WE WILL HAVE MUCH TIME FOR THE SNOW TO ACCUMULATE MUCH, SO
LIGHT SNOW TOTALS ARE WHAT ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. ALONG
WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WE WILL HAVE COOLER AIR
FILTER INTO THE REGION, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEM, SO WE WILL
HAVE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN
NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. THEN ON SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SECOND SYSTEM
(ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO), BUT THEY ARE STILL ABOUT 6 HOURS OFF ON
THEIR TIMING, WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
MUCH LIKE OUR MIDWEEK SYSTEM, NEXT WEEKEND'S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOOKS WARM, SO IT WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF AREA MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 905 PM MST MON NOV 17 2025
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT GIVING US HIGH CEILINGS OF BKN-OVC250, BUT
THEN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WE WILL SEE SOME MID AND EVEN LOWER
CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. BY TUESDAY EVENING WE COULD SEE SOME MID
CEILING OF BKN090-120. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE, BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OUR STILL OUT PAST 24 HOURS.
WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
TOMORROW EVENING, BUT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME ON
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF FOR
TONIGHT, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST MON NOV 17 2025
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH WINDS BECOME WEST/NORTHWESTERLY, REMAIN BREEZY AT 10-20 MPH.
MIN RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO ME OF NO CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. VENT RATES ON MONDAY WILL BE
GOOD. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS
TRAVERSE THE DESERT SW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 54 69 52 / 0 0 0 30
SIERRA BLANCA 73 48 68 47 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 67 49 64 45 / 0 0 0 30
ALAMOGORDO 69 48 65 44 / 0 0 0 30
CLOUDCROFT 49 34 44 31 / 0 0 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 48 61 45 / 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 59 43 56 39 / 0 0 10 50
DEMING 69 49 65 45 / 0 0 10 30
LORDSBURG 66 48 63 45 / 0 0 10 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 55 66 52 / 0 0 0 30
DELL CITY 75 48 70 47 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 79 55 75 52 / 0 0 0 20
LOMA LINDA 66 49 62 46 / 0 0 0 30
FABENS 76 54 71 52 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA TERESA 69 52 65 49 / 0 0 0 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 70 53 66 50 / 0 0 0 40
JORNADA RANGE 67 48 64 45 / 0 0 0 30
HATCH 70 50 66 47 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBUS 71 51 67 49 / 0 0 10 30
OROGRANDE 68 49 64 46 / 0 0 0 40
MAYHILL 62 40 56 37 / 0 0 0 30
MESCALERO 60 37 56 34 / 0 0 0 30
TIMBERON 57 36 53 34 / 0 0 0 30
WINSTON 59 37 55 35 / 0 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 65 45 61 42 / 0 0 0 30
SPACEPORT 66 46 63 44 / 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 59 39 56 35 / 0 0 10 50
HURLEY 61 43 58 39 / 0 0 10 50
CLIFF 66 45 63 43 / 0 0 10 50
MULE CREEK 61 41 59 39 / 0 0 10 50
FAYWOOD 61 46 57 42 / 0 0 10 40
ANIMAS 68 49 66 46 / 0 0 10 30
HACHITA 67 48 64 45 / 0 0 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 48 65 45 / 0 0 0 20
CLOVERDALE 61 46 59 42 / 0 0 0 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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