579
FXUS64 KEPZ 062326
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
426 PM MST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 416 PM MST THU NOV 6 2025
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY, BRINGING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY EAST WINDS.
- STILL NO RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
WE HAVE A BIT OF A WEATHER SANDWICH IN THE FORECAST. WE WILL HAVE
QUIET WARM WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING AND THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE. FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WE WILL HAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WE WILL BE
DRY WITH LOTS OF SUN BOTH DAYS.
THEN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST. THE
FRONT WILL USHER IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY. THIS COOLER AIR WILL
KEEP OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY 2 TO 4
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE FRONT WILL BE DRY, SO DESPITE THE
COOLER WEATHER, OUR SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. BY MONDAY MORNING
THERE IS A CHANCE (20 TO 30%) OF LOWLAND LOCATIONS SEE MIN
TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING. IT LOOKS LIKE RIGHT
NOW EL PASO WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL SEE A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW OUR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CREEP 8
TO 10 DEGREES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE. THE WARM DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 416 PM MST THU NOV 6 2025
VMC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC TO FEW250. WINDS
BREEZY AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO25 KNOTS THROUGH 02-03Z,
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THEREAFTER, BECOMING 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 06Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF W/NW THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TIMEFRAME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
WE WILL SEE QUIET FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THEN ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EAST. THE FRONT WILL BE DRY AND WINDY. WITH MIN RH'S IN THE TEENS
FOR SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF LOWLANDS, WE WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND MIN RH'S WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL
VALUES. THE DRY WEATHER WITH MIN RH'S IN THE TEENS IN THE LOWLANDS
AND NEAR 20% IN AREA MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS WILL STAY WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 80 51 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 77 46 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 77 44 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 77 46 77 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 58 38 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 46 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 72 44 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 80 43 80 44 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 76 44 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 52 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 79 42 80 40 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 83 50 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 72 48 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 81 48 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 77 46 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 79 51 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 77 42 77 41 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 80 43 80 41 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 81 48 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 75 43 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 70 43 71 29 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 69 41 68 30 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 66 39 67 29 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 71 38 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 77 47 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 76 41 76 38 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 73 38 74 36 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 74 42 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 79 41 79 41 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 74 41 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 74 46 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 79 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 78 43 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 79 46 79 44 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 72 48 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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