845
FXUS64 KEPZ 111650
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
950 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 945 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
A FAIRLY BENIGN FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS AN
UL RIDGE WILL COVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA, WHICH WILL BRING US NOTHING
MORE THAN SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT/ TUESDAY
MORNING, THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA AS
AN OPEN WAVE, PUSHING INTO TX. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LOOKS TO
PULL INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME BRINGING A LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCE OF PRECIP (20 TO 50%). SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND
5000', SO PARTS OF THE US-62 MAY SEE SOME SNOW. AMOUNTS LOOK
REALLY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
A REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL FORM ALONG THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY,
KEEPING THE AREA IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. FOR THE MOST PART,
NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MINOR FRONT
WILL GRAZE THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. A
STRONGER FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS AIR MASS IS CANADIAN IN ORIGIN AND LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1030
MB. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS HOW MUCH OF THAT COLD AIR WILL FIND ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THE 25-75TH SPREAD FOR EL PASO SHOWS A RANGE OF
56 TO 64 FOR A HIGH ON SATURDAY. EITHER WAY, THE FROPA WILL BE
DRY, WHICH CHARACTERIZES THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
HUDSPETH COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 945 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW-SCT 250 BCMG SCT-BKN100-250.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 945 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM, LEVELING OFF MID-WEEK.
AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE 15 TO 25 THOUGH A LITTLE BIT
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WELL, TOPPING OUT LESS THAN 10 MPH EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY. VENTING WILL RANGE POOR TO FAIR AS A RESULT OF THE
WEAK WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 31 56 31 60 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 28 50 31 55 / 10 10 40 20
LAS CRUCES 24 53 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 22 54 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 17 41 20 44 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 25 53 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 24 52 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 26 55 24 60 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 28 53 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 32 54 33 59 / 0 0 10 0
DELL CITY 20 54 23 60 / 0 0 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 29 56 32 61 / 10 10 40 10
LOMA LINDA 28 50 30 53 / 0 0 20 10
FABENS 29 56 30 60 / 0 10 20 10
SANTA TERESA 27 53 28 58 / 0 0 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 30 55 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 20 54 20 59 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 21 57 23 62 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 28 55 27 59 / 0 0 10 0
OROGRANDE 24 53 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 18 53 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 18 52 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 17 48 20 52 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 16 51 19 57 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 26 53 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 19 54 21 59 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 18 53 20 58 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 23 53 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 20 58 19 61 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 20 55 21 59 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 26 53 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 24 53 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 24 52 22 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 23 52 25 58 / 0 0 10 0
CLOVERDALE 28 49 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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