233
FXUS64 KEPZ 062343
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
543 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 542 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
- A PASSING DISTURBANCE, COMBINED WITH MODERATE MOISTURE, WILL
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY.
- DRIER AIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY, AS WESTERLY
FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE BACK EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
- MOISTURE SNEAKS BACK IN FROM THE EAST, WITH A POSSIBLE DRY LINE
MOVING IN TO SPARK SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY, WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN DRY.
- AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING
INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR THIS WEEKEND. BUT CONDITIONS DO
NOT APPEAR DRY ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST, AND A FAIR AMOUNT
OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN WITH IT FROM THE
SOUTH, WITH COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, TONIGHT, AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND. THE NEXT 24 HRS HOLD THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS, AND POSSIBLY WETTING RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN ZONES. LOWER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM SE TO SOUTHERLY AND ADVECT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IN OVER OUR S AND SW AREAS FIRST THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE
UPPER TROUGH FIRST BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST BEGIN OVER THE GILA AND BOOTHEEL THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN ADVANCE/SPREAD EASTWARD THIS EVENING, WITH
BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER CENTRAL ZONES OVERNIGHT, AND BETTER RAIN
CHANCES OVER EASTERN ZONES EARLY AND MID DAY TUESDAY. THE
DISTURBANCE IS BOTH WEAK, AND PASSING NORTH. THIS MEANS GENERALLY
LIGHT RAIN OVER OUR AREA, AND LIGHTER TO THE SOUTH, MORE MODERATE
TO THE NORTH. SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGH, SO EVEN OUR AREA MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE RAIN, WITH ONLY THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW AT MOST.
TUESDAY, WILL BE A SEASONAL DAY, AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS, AND
WE SEE A WARMING WEST WIND RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON, TO SHOVE
THE MOISTURE EAST. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURE GAINS BACK TO THE DAILY
AVERAGE. WITH DRY AIR PUNCHING BACK IN, RH WILL BE ON THE FALL,
AS WILL BE CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A DEEP QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW, WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW HELPING TO WARM THE REGION BACK ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER, WITH OUR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION, THE WARMING WILL BE TEMPERED, WITH DAILY HIGHS ONLY AROUND
5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE. ALSO, THE DRIER AIR IS NOT SO DRY
THAT WE BECOME CRITICALLY DRY. WINDS WILL NOT GET STRONG AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS STAY RELAXED.
FRIDAY, WE SHIFT THE WEATHER PATTERN AGAIN WITH A DEEP PACIFIC LOW
FORMED OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING N TO
S THROUGH NM. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY SW WINDS WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, AND MOIST SE WINDS EAST OF THE RGV. THUS
A CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THE SURFACE TO INDUCE THE FORMATION OF A
POSSIBLE DRYLINE OVER OUR CWA. ALOFT THE UPPER LOW, AND DEEP SW
FLOW OVER OUR REGION WILL SPIT OUT WEAK IMPULSES. THIS SET UP WILL
ELEVATE MOISTURE, RAISE RH, AND ALLOW BRING BACK CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THE
LIKELINESS OF THIS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT WE DO HAVE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEEKEND, WE COULD SEE
STRONGER WINDS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT080 BKN-
OVC200. DEVELOPING NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM DEMING WEST...SCATTERED
BKN050 -SHRA. SHOWERS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING. SHOWERS ENDING FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z. SURFACE WINDS
SOUTH 10-15 KNOTS BECOMING EAST/NORTHEAST AOB 7 KNOTS AFTER 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
LOW TO MODERATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND TUESDAY, AS WE
WATCH SEE A DISTURBANCE TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO KEEP CLOUDS, ELEVATED RH, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME BREEZY E AND
SE WINDS, BUT THOSE WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE
OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO COOLER TODAY, WITH NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY, WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DISSIPATING, AND WINDS TURNING
BACK WESTERLY.
WEDNESDAY BEGINS A SHIFT BACK TO MORE TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER
CONDITIONS, WITH THE DEEP WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. WE WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL, AND
SEE A LARGE DROP IN RH, BACK INTO THE TEENS. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT, AS THE CONDITIONS STAY WELL BELOW CRITICAL.
LATE THURSDAY, AND MORESO ON FRIDAY, WE SEE A PUSH OF EAST WINDS
FROM TX MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES, WHILE OUR WESTERN
ZONES REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRY SW FLOW. FOR OUR E AND
CENTRAL AREA, WE EXPECT TO SEE THE ADVANCE OF GULF MOISTURE MOVING
IN, WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP A DRY LINE, JUST EAST, OR
EVEN OVER OUR AREA. FOR THOSE AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, WE WILL SEE ELEVATED RH, AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS (E THU, AND E AND CENTRAL FRI). WESTERN AREAS WILL MISS
OUT ON THE MOISTURE AND REMAIN DRY.
THE WEEKEND AHEAD MAY BRING MORE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN THE FORM
OF STRONGER WINDS, AS THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM
MAKES A SLOW TREK EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. MODELS SUGGEST
INCREASING SW WINDS, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER,
WE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CRITICALLY DRY, AS THIS SAME SYSTEM LOOKS
TO ADVECT SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION, AS IT
APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS RH WILL BE ABOVE THE TEENS,
WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS, AND TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, DESPITE MOST AREAS
STAYING DRY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 78 53 84 / 70 20 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 45 75 44 80 / 60 20 0 0
LAS CRUCES 47 73 47 80 / 80 20 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 71 44 82 / 80 70 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 33 49 34 57 / 80 80 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 51 72 49 80 / 90 40 0 0
SILVER CITY 44 68 45 75 / 70 30 0 0
DEMING 49 78 48 83 / 70 20 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 76 46 82 / 40 10 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 77 54 83 / 70 10 0 0
DELL CITY 46 75 42 85 / 60 50 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 50 83 49 88 / 60 20 0 0
LOMA LINDA 47 70 47 76 / 70 30 0 0
FABENS 51 81 49 86 / 70 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 50 76 49 83 / 70 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 74 52 82 / 80 30 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 73 43 81 / 80 40 10 0
HATCH 49 76 45 84 / 80 30 0 0
COLUMBUS 52 79 50 84 / 60 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 47 73 45 80 / 70 50 0 0
MAYHILL 37 60 37 71 / 80 80 20 10
MESCALERO 36 59 36 69 / 80 80 30 10
TIMBERON 36 58 37 67 / 80 70 10 10
WINSTON 39 65 37 73 / 90 60 0 0
HILLSBORO 47 70 48 79 / 80 40 0 0
SPACEPORT 45 72 43 82 / 80 40 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 68 40 75 / 80 40 0 0
HURLEY 42 72 43 78 / 70 20 0 0
CLIFF 45 75 43 83 / 70 20 0 0
MULE CREEK 43 73 43 78 / 60 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 70 47 78 / 80 30 0 0
ANIMAS 47 77 48 83 / 40 0 0 0
HACHITA 46 76 46 83 / 50 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 78 49 82 / 40 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 48 73 51 78 / 20 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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