278
FXUS64 KEPZ 020002
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
602 PM MDT SUN AUG 1 2021
AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
ISO-SCT TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TSRA IN VCTY OF KEPZ AND NEAR
KTCS. ISO TO SCT TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, INCLUDING
TERMINALS, WITH VCTS IN PLACE FROM 00 TO 06Z. ANY TSRA AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE +RA AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS, 20G35KT. OVERALL, VFR EXPECTED BUT UNDER A HEAVIER
TSRA COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. ISO TSRA/SHRA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION...200 PM MDT SUN AUG 1 2021
SYNOPSIS
A FEW DAYS OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. DRIER AIR WILL START TO
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN, TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MOISTURE AND BOUNDARIES, INCLUDING A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TRIGGERING SCT SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A MINOR DISTURBANCE JUST SKIMMING OUR
EASTERN BORDERS, SO THIS COULD POP OFF SOME MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY
ACROSS FAR EAST OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTY. SOMETHING TO KEEP AND EYE
ON, IN ADDITION TO HOW THE EAST BACKDOOR INTERACTS WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE. DEEP MOISTURE AND HIGH RH IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATM AT THIS TIME WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAINS,
WHEREVER STORMS ATTEMPT TO MATERIALIZE. TEMPS SEASONABLE ONCE
AGAIN, VARYING WHERE ANY CLOUD COVER/RAINFALL LINGERS.
AN INTERESTING DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE,
FOR ALL INTENSIVE PURPOSES (INCLUDING SATURATED SOUNDING PROFILES),
SEEM TO SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER,
MOST MODEL SUPPORT SIMPLY DOES NOT COMPLY. PRESUMABLY, SLIGHT
WARMING/CAPPING IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE THE CULPRIT, SUPPRESSING A
LARGE MAJORITY OF LOWLAND ACTIVITY, AND EVEN FOR THE SACS FOR THAT
MATTER (ALTHOUGH A COOL AND WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT MAY BE MORE TO
BLAME). THE ONE LOCATIONS THAT DOES TO SUGGEST A CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL BE THE GILA REGION. HREF PROBS OF 1" OF RAIN OR
MORE IN 3 HRS (ALTHOUGH NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE THE PATTERN IS TO NOTE)
PUT A BULLSEYE ACROSS THIS REGION, WITH REFLECTIVITY MEMBERS SHOWING
ONLY ISO TO SCT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. AS SUCH,
PUSHING THE POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE MID SHIFT, TO MATCH
UP WITH ABQ POTENTIALLY AS WELL, BUT THINK THE GILA WOULD BE THE
BEST AREA FOR ONE, PRESUMING ONE IS ISSUED. GIVEN THE RAINFALL FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE (PRESUMABLY)
RELATIVELY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SACS
JUST DON'T SEEM ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT WE'LL SEE WHAT SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS IN STORE LATER.
AGAIN, LOWLANDS WILL HAVE RATHER RICH MOISTURE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF ROBUST MODEL SUPPORT. BUT, COULD CERTAINLY SEE
THIS CHANGE IF A STRONG OUTFLOW PUSHED INTO ANY OF THE LOWLAND
AREAS. THIS MAY BE MOST APPROPRIATE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WHERE
MORE INSTABILITY LIES AND THE GREATER CHANCE OF ROBUST OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS MAY BE. TEMPS REMAINS A LITTLE BELOW AVG FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
LATEST RUNS OF EXTENDED MODELS HAVE STARTED TO CHANGE THEIR TUNE
AFTER WED/THU. WHAT LOOKED LIKE A VERY WET WEEK IS NOW LOOKING
LIKE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE WET WITH NICE
MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING OVER THE AREA AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN NV REGION. THE RESULTING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL TRIGGER DAILY STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUTFLOWS
WILL PUSH THEM SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
STARTING THU THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD AS A
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA
IN AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND ANY GOOD MOISTURE TAPS GET
CUTOFF AND LOW AND MID LEVELS. OPERATIONAL GFS SEEMS A LITTLE
EXTREME WITH DROPPING DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S IN SOME EASTERN
AREAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE EC AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SEEM
MORE REASONABLE WHICH PUTS SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. THERE ARE STILL SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT KEEP IT VERY MOIST
AROUND THE BORDERLAND, BUT WITH LATEST EC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS
SHOWING A RATHER PRONOUNCED DROP IN PW'S, HAVE STARTED TRENDING
POPS DOWN AND TEMPERATURES UP. THE UPPER HIGH DOES MOVE INTO
EASTERN TX OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH IS A MORE FAVORABLE MONSOON
SEASON SETUP, BUT AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE EASTERN AZ/NM
BORDER REGION AS THE TARGET FOR THE MOISTURE PLUME. RAISED NBM
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES, ESPECIALLY EAST GOING INTO THE FRI-SUN
TIMEFRAME WHEN WE COULD START SEEING MID TO UPPER 90S RETURNING.
FIRE WEATHER
STORM CHANCES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN REGION, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING A CONCERN. THEN A DRYING TREND MAY DEVELOP MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY MTN STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 LOWLANDS AND 30S TO 50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 70 89 70 91 / 40 40 40 30
SIERRA BLANCA 67 85 66 87 / 60 40 40 40
LAS CRUCES 67 89 67 91 / 50 40 50 30
ALAMOGORDO 66 86 65 88 / 50 60 40 40
CLOUDCROFT 49 64 50 64 / 70 70 40 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 86 67 91 / 60 70 40 40
SILVER CITY 60 80 63 85 / 60 70 40 40
DEMING 69 89 67 91 / 50 50 50 20
LORDSBURG 68 92 68 92 / 40 40 30 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 70 89 70 92 / 40 40 40 30
DELL CITY 66 86 65 89 / 50 40 40 30
FORT HANCOCK 72 90 68 92 / 50 40 40 30
LOMA LINDA 65 84 64 83 / 50 40 40 40
FABENS 70 91 68 92 / 40 40 40 30
SANTA TERESA 68 89 67 91 / 40 40 40 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 68 88 69 90 / 50 40 40 30
JORNADA RANGE 66 87 65 88 / 60 40 50 30
HATCH 69 89 67 91 / 50 50 50 30
COLUMBUS 69 90 69 92 / 50 40 50 20
OROGRANDE 67 87 66 89 / 40 40 40 40
MAYHILL 54 73 56 75 / 80 70 40 60
MESCALERO 54 76 55 76 / 70 70 40 60
TIMBERON 51 71 52 74 / 70 70 40 50
WINSTON 57 79 56 83 / 70 80 40 50
HILLSBORO 63 84 62 88 / 60 70 50 40
SPACEPORT 67 87 66 88 / 60 50 40 40
LAKE ROBERTS 56 80 56 85 / 60 80 40 50
HURLEY 62 83 62 86 / 60 60 40 30
CLIFF 65 92 61 90 / 50 70 30 30
MULE CREEK 59 85 58 87 / 50 70 30 40
FAYWOOD 63 83 63 87 / 60 60 50 30
ANIMAS 68 90 67 93 / 40 30 30 20
HACHITA 68 88 66 91 / 50 40 40 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 90 67 92 / 50 40 40 20
CLOVERDALE 65 86 63 88 / 50 40 40 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
35/26/14
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