096
FXUS64 KEPZ 221120
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
420 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HITTING THEIR PEAK ON TUESDAY. A SUBTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OUR PRIMARY FOCUS, WITH WARM,
DRY, AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS, COMBINING WITH RECORD DRY LATE
WINTER FUELS TO INCREASE FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF
STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP THE REGION FROM REACHING CRITICAL
LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING ONLY A FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTERO, HUDSPETH, AND EL PASO COUNTIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. ON THE HEELS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH,
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER QUICK PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN LATER TODAY. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH EITHER TROUGH OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AS DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. PRESSURE HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY
AS RIDGING OVER THE BAJA BUILDS OVER THE BORDERLAND BRINGING A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE
BORDERLAND AREA AROUND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ EARLY THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. BOTH DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL GET
HUNG UP ALONG THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY, BUT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA DROPPING TEMPERATURES
AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AS HEIGHTS RAISE AGAIN AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARMING TREND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUD AND FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TO THE BORDERLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AOB 07 KNOTS OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. MIN RH VALUES TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. A PROLONG STRETCH OF MIN RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEGINS ON SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A
MODEST BUMP IN MIN RH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL LIMIT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 64 37 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 60 33 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 62 32 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 60 30 69 35 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 25 48 32 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 33 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 59 32 67 38 / 10 0 0 0
DEMING 65 30 74 33 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 29 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 39 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 58 25 72 30 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 66 32 74 35 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 56 35 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 64 32 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 61 33 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 40 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 62 28 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 66 29 74 32 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 65 35 74 37 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 59 31 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 55 30 63 37 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 53 27 60 33 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 50 25 60 30 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 57 22 67 28 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 61 32 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 62 27 71 31 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 60 28 68 34 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 61 28 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 67 22 75 27 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 62 29 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 60 34 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 66 31 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 64 30 72 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 66 34 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 61 38 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...41-KELLY
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