357
FXUS64 KEPZ 181711
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1111 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1105 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITY. RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
- LIGHTER WINDS, BUT STILL BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS, TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO EAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN US THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES EJECTING OUT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS SAME PERIOD, ALLOWING BREEZY AFTERNOONS EACH
DAY. IN THE SHORT TERM, ONE SHORT-WAVE HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH THE
CWA AND NOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WAVE IS JUST THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS AND WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, BACK DOOR COOL FRONT
JUST INTO FAR NE NEW MEXICO, WITH DRY-LINE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DOWN TO THE BIG BEND. BOTH FRONTS WILL
RETREAT NORTH/EAST TODAY BUT WILL BE PLAYERS LATER IN THE WEEK.
TODAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS WITH CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. SOME
BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY OVER WEST
TEXAS BUT POSSIBLY LOCAL AREAS NEAR DEMING AND LORDSBURG ALSO.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEXT SHORT-WAVE DEEPENS SOME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN BUT MAKES VERY LITTLE PROGRESS EASTWARD. SECOND
IMPULSE DIVES FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOCAL, EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF A
WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTTOM
LINE...MODERATE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT SURFACE PATTERN
IS DISRUPTED BY BACK DOOR COOL FRONT CONTINUING TO LURK OVER NE
NEW MEXICO. THUS LEE-SIDE LOW (WEAK) DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND DOES NOT ALLOW STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP LIKE
MORE TYPICAL NE NEW MEXICO SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER WINDS WILL STILL
REMAIN BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LONG-WAVE TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS MOVING
EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STARTS BUILDING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS INITIALLY PUSHES THE BACK DOOR FRONT DOWN TO THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE STALLING OUT. DRY-LINE ALSO
DRIFTS WEST BUT REMAINS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS DO RISE INTO THE 40S, MAINLY EAST OF THE RG
VALLEY. POPS START OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MODEST INSTABILITY SATURDAY, BUT INCREASES ON SUNDAY. DECENT
MUCAPE VALUES AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COULD ALLOW SOME STRONG
STORMS TO DEVELOP.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW120 SCT250.
SURFACE WINDS WEST 15-20G30 KNOTS DECREASING AFTER 03Z TO WEST
8-12 KNOTS. PATCHY 5SM BLDU, MAINLY OVER EL PASO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES
FROM 20Z-01Z. NOTE: KELP WINDS WILL APPROACH AWW CRITERIA BUT
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
TODAY CONTINUES IN CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS AS GUSTY WINDS, WHICH
REALLY LASTED ALL NIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS, INCREASES AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WIND CONDITIONS SLACKEN A BIT,
BUT EACH AFTERNOON WILL STILL BECOME BREEZY. FIRE CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS. WINDS OVER THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIGHTEN UP A BIT AFTER TODAY, AND WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT
TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE MODEST INCREASES IN DEWPOINT/HUMIDITY, AND COULD LEAD TO A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DESPITE THIS UPTICK IN MOISTURE, ERCS ARE
STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE THROUGH
SUNDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 8-13% THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN 12-18% SAT/SUN.
GILA/BLACK RANGE 8-15% THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN 12-20% SAT/SUN.
SACRAMENTO/CAPITAN MOUNTAINS 10-18% THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN 20-30%
SAT/SUN. VENT RATES EXCELLENT THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 92 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 89 56 86 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 54 88 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 56 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 43 67 44 65 / 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 55 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 48 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 53 91 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 50 86 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 56 92 54 88 / 0 0 0 20
FORT HANCOCK 59 97 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 84 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 59 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 56 89 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 89 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 54 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 54 90 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 58 92 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 56 87 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 49 79 47 76 / 0 0 0 30
MESCALERO 47 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 45 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 20
WINSTON 42 79 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 50 86 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 43 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 46 83 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 46 85 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 45 81 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 50 82 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 50 87 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 51 88 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 51 88 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 50 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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