238
FXUS64 KEPZ 072115
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
315 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2020
SYNOPSIS
A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. HAZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOMORROW
MORNING, AND LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING. HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
FOR THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A HEAT ADVISORY OUT FOR EL PASO AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED TO
MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY, AS WE KEEP
WARMING UP DAY BY DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT IS A SILENT
KILLER, AND THE NUMBER ONE THREAT TO CREATURES IN THE US. BE SAFE
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. IT WAS THIS SAME RIDGE ALOFT COMBINED WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT LED TO THE STAGNANT AIR MASS AND
POOR AIR QUALITY EXPERIENCED EARLIER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. A SIMILAR SCENARIO CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY AS A MIXTURE OF SMOKE, DUST, AND MOIST AIR WILL BECOME
TRAPPED OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY RESULTING IN HAZY
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS TO START THE DAY. OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND VERY
HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE BORDERLAND WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS.
MEANWHILE WE STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOON TODAY MANY LOCATIONS
STILL HAD DEWPOINT READINGS NEAR 50 DEGREES. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME
OF YEAR WE ARE SEEING EARLY SIGNS OF CONVECTION IN THE FAVORED AREAS
OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT (NAMELY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE BLACKS RANGE). ACCORDING TO THE MORNING RAOB, STEERING
FLOW APPEARS TO BE RATHER LIGHT SO THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS
AS THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
OUTFLOW FROM THIS INITIAL CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY PRODUCE A FEW
ADDITIONAL STORM BUILDUPS OVER THE LOWLANDS, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED MONDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NM, THE HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS BUILDING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE A SEAT OVER
NM AND SIT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE DURATION OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA IS ABNORMAL,
AND WILL BRING CONSECUTIVE HOT DAYS TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY, BUT WITH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO FIRE UP CONVECTION WILL NOT REACH THE CWA
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HEAT WILL BE THE THREAT FOR THE PERIOD, AS TEMPERATURES WILL
EASILY RISE INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE LOWLANDS (ABOVE
105 DEGREES). STRONG CONFIDENCE FOR LOWLAND HEAT ADVISORY LASTING
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ABOVE 6,500FT
BUT BELOW 7,500FT WILL REACH CRITERIA (ABOVE 100 DEGREES)
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE 7,500FT WILL BE HOT,
BUT STAY BELOW CRITERIA. LOW TEMPERATURE RECOVERIES WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 70S IN URBAN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER OVER NIGHT
LOWS WILL STAY ABOVE 80 FRIDAY NIGHT ON. NON-URBAN AREAS WILL HAVE
BETTER RECOVERIES, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB DURING
THE DAY. HEAT IS A SILENT KILLER, AND THE NUMBER ONE THREAT TO
CREATURES IN THE US. MAKE SURE TO LIMIT TIME OUTSIDE DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND MAKE
SURE YOU NEVER LEAVE LIVING BEINGS IN THE CAR DURING THESE TIMES.
ED
AVIATION
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A FEW-SCT120 CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDER AND MVFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF ACTIVE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED AIR
STAGNATION. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 5SM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
LRU AND ELP AROUND 12Z DUE TO HAZE AND SMOKE.
FIRE WEATHER
VERY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THERE
IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE TO CREATE CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION (MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN) THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW BUILDUPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN WEDNESDAY, BUT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATLY
REDUCED AS THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT TAKES OVER. MEANWHILE THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS WELL AS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.
DAILY MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 PERCENT ON A DAILY BASIS.
AT THE SAME TIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR WELL INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE LOWLANDS AND INTO THE 90'S FOR SOME OF OUR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT DURING THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER TRANSPORT WINDS
SHOULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP LIFT VENT RATES IN THE DAYS
AHEAD. THIS SHOULD HELP DISPERSE ANY SMOKE THAT MAY STILL BE PRESENT
FROM PAST OR ONGOING FIRES IN THE REGION.
27-LANEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 77 104 79 104 / 20 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 69 100 72 99 / 20 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 70 103 72 102 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 72 101 74 104 / 20 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 55 79 57 80 / 20 10 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 72 101 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 67 93 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 68 102 69 104 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 69 102 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 77 102 78 105 / 20 0 0 0
DELL CITY 71 101 72 105 / 20 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 75 105 77 106 / 20 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 73 101 75 99 / 20 0 0 0
FABENS 77 104 78 105 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 72 101 73 104 / 20 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 101 78 104 / 30 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 71 101 73 102 / 20 0 0 0
HATCH 70 102 72 104 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 102 75 104 / 10 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 72 102 75 104 / 20 0 0 0
MAYHILL 61 86 63 91 / 20 10 0 10
MESCALERO 59 90 61 91 / 20 10 0 0
TIMBERON 57 86 59 88 / 20 10 0 0
WINSTON 59 93 60 94 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 67 99 68 101 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 68 102 69 102 / 10 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 58 95 59 96 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 64 96 65 98 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 57 100 59 101 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 66 95 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 67 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 67 102 69 102 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 65 100 67 101 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 99 69 100 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 66 94 67 95 / 0 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
TXZ418-419-423-424.
27-LANEY/31/27
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