635
FXUS64 KEPZ 302320
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
420 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 415 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS, GENTLE WARMING, AND AFTERNOON BREEZES THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
- A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF LOWLAND RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THURSDAY.
- DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN GOING INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
SEVERAL PASSING TROUGHS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK WHICH WILL BRING
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME AND A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU. OVERALL THE MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP BUT ARE HAVING ISSUES
WITH THE MIDWEEK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AND SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START REBOUNDING FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO WARM ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES FROM THE HIGHS TODAY. WESTERLY
FLOW GOING INTO TUE AND WED WILL KEEP HIGHS CONSISTENT WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY PERIODS. LIGHTER WINDS TUE MORNING WITH SOME
DRIER AIR IN PLACE COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS THAT HAVEN'T SEEN A
FREEZE YET TO GET THERE. IT WILL BE CLOSE AROUND LAS CRUCES AND
THE OUTLYING AREAS OF EL PASO.
THE MAIN SYSTEM OF IMPACT WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE WED INTO THU.
MODELS HAD BEEN COMING TOGETHER ON THIS AND TAPPING SOME MODEST
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. MY CONFIDENCE ISN'T TOO HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO WITHOUT THE TROUGH DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST GFS IS
TRENDING DRIER ALONG WITH IT'S ENSEMBLE MEAN. RIGHT NOW LOWERED
NBM POPS ABOUT 5-10 PERCENT WITH THIS TREND AND WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS SEE IF THIS CONTINUES. ANY PRECIP ON THE LOWLANDS WILL
REMAIN RAIN WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES, WE GO BACK INTO A ZONAL FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZES
ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 415 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES SCT AT 15 KFT AND BKN
AT 25 KFT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME FEW TO SCT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AT 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE E/S.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
DRY WITH SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE WINDIEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL AND RH'S
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
BUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN QUESTION. VENT RATES
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 64 37 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 30 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 61 31 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 29 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 37 22 41 27 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 29 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 54 31 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 63 29 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 61 30 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 36 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 63 26 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 67 32 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 56 30 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 65 32 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 62 32 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 34 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 59 23 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 63 28 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 33 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 28 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 51 23 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 48 23 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 48 21 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 51 22 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 58 31 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 57 24 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 53 20 57 22 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 56 25 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 57 25 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 56 21 57 23 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 56 31 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 62 32 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 61 31 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 34 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 57 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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