660
FXUS64 KEPZ 231813
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1213 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
- THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A PASSING STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS MAINLY EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORM TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER OTERO AND HUDSEPTH COUNTIES.
- FRIDAY, TODAY'S STORM SYSTEM AND MOISTURE SHIFT EAST, BUT
HUDSPETH COUNTY, AND POSSIBLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WILL
SEE MORE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES, WHILE THE REST OF THE
BORDERLAND DRIES OUT.
- DRY, FAIR, AND SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL OF
THE BORDERLAND FOR THE WEEKEND, AND ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES, TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
SKIES LARGELY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY, AND WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
A SLOW-PASSING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM, STILL TO OUR NW WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS TODAY, TONIGHT,
AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOME MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND
DYNAMICS IN PLACE OVER AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, EASTWARD.
AREAS WEST OF THE RIO SHOULD BEGIN A SHARP DRYOUT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, AS A MINOR PACIFIC
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. OUR FORECAST ZONES WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY SHOULD BE DONE WITH PRECIPITATION AND STORMS
FROM THIS CURRENT PASSING SYSTEM, AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, PROG
SOUNDINGS, AND ACTUAL DEWPOINTS ALL INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL
ATMOSPHERIC DRYING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
MEAN CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER FRIDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES. FOR OUR
EASTERN AREAS, WE STILL KEEP TEH STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH, WITH
DEEP SW FLOW. THUS WE KEEP RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN PLACE THIS
EVENING, OVERNIGHT, AND EVEN FRIDAY FOR EASTERN EL PASO CO,
HUDSPETH CO. AND OTERO CO. MODELS DO SHOW NEG LIS AND CAPE OF NEAR
1000J/KG OVER THESE AREAS. FOR FRIDAY, THERE IS ANOTHER EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE FOCUS AREA FOR STORMS, THAT INCLUDES ONLY HUDSPETH
COUNTY. IN ADDITION, AS THE ACTUAL UPPER LOW PASSES JUST TO OUR
NORTH, THERE COULD BE A SECOND AREA OF ACTIVITY DROPPING IN FROM
THE NW TOMMORROW AFTERNOON, OVER E SIERRA AND N OTERO COUNTIES.
FOR THIS EVENING, SOME STORMS COULD GROW STRONG TO SEVERE, IN THE
FORM OF STRONG OUTFLOW/DOWNDRAFT WINDS, DUE TO SHEAR, HELPING
STORMS TO GROW TALL.
THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY, AND
BRING DRIER AIR TO ALL FORECAST ZONES, MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST
FRIDAY EVENING, ONWARD, THROUGH THE REST OF THE CYCLE. THIS FRONT,
AND A MINOR SECONDARY SIDE-DOOR FRONT, FROM THE NORTH, OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT, WILL COOL TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY
AND AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. WE ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY SW/W
CONDITIONS FRIDAY, BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR DUST. WITH THE
MOISTURE SHOVED EAST, WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE WEEKEND, A PASSING UPPER RIDGE, FOLLOWED BY A FLATTER
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL MAKE FOR DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER, WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERAT WINDS. VERY TYPICAL OCTOBER CONDITIONS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT
BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR WEST, AND KEEP DRY NW FLOW OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UPWARD A BIT, AND RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN DAILY AVERAGES. TUESDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A MINOR
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE PLAINS, AND IT LOOKS TO
COOL THE REGION ABOUT 5 DEGREES OVER EASTERN ZONES. BUT WE
CONTINUE WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH NEAR ZERO CHANCES FOR ANY
RAIN OR STORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
A SLOW-PASSING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM, STILL TO OUR NW WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS TODAY, TONIGHT,
AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOME MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND
DYNAMICS IN PLACE OVER AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, EASTWARD.
THUS FOR KDMN, GENERALLY VFR AND DRY CONDTIONS, WITH IMPROVING
SKIES, AND FALLING CHANCES FOR ANY FURTHER SHRA, OR TSRA. THE SAME
CAN BE SAID FOR KTCS, BUT WITH LESS CONFIDENCE, AS THE LOW SWINGS
BY TOMORROW, AND COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR ISOLATED MIDDAY
STORM. FOR KLRU AND KELP, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS, BUT WITH
CHANCES FOR PASSING SHRA AND TSRA WITH STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
AND PASSING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS, OR VCTY OF THE TERMINALS ANY
TIME WITHING THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR KLRU
SHOULD BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TODAY, AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
WEATHER SHIFTS E, AND LEAVES KELP AS THE MOST FAVORED TERMINAL FOR
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CIGS AND VSBY IN ANY RAIN SHOWER.
ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS,
BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. OTHERWISE, WINDS SE TO SW IN THE 5-15KT RANGE
WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
WE ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDST OF A SLOW PASSING TROUGH, WITH
HEALTHY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STILL STREAMING IN ON SW FLOW OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS, WITH OUR GILA AND BOOTHEEL REGION
BEGINNING TO SEE DRY AIR SWEEPING IN. THE STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING
ACROSS N AZ TODAY, AND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS N AND CENTRAL NM
TOMORROW. TONIGHT WE WILL SEE THE DRYING REINFORCED OVER OUR 110
AND 111 ZONES ACROSS SW NM, WHILE THE EASTERN AREAS KEEP SOME RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES. THE WEST WILL BE COOLER AND DRY OVERNIGHT, WITH
FEW TO NO CLOUDS. ALL AREA WILL HAVE GOOD RH RECOVERY, BUT THE
WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE IT DROP FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
FRIDAY MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND A MINOR
PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS S NEW MEXICO.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE, TRENDING MIN RH LOWER. SOME
LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE MIN RH IN THE UPPER TEENS, BUT WINDS
WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY AND OCCASSIONALLY BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON,
SO NOT REALLY ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FAR WEST
TEXAS, SHOULD SEE SOME FRIDAY STORMS ACROSS HUDSEPTH COUNTY. IN
THE AFTERNOON, AND EARLY EVENING, AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS SE AND E
ACROSS CENTRAL NM, THE SACS COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT, AND TAKE ALL THE MOISTURE
WITH IT. THE REGION WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEHIND A PAIR OF WEAK FRONTS FROM THE W AND NW. DRY AIR WILL MOVE
IN AND CRASH DEWPOINTS AND RH. BEGINNING SUNDAY, WITH SOMEWHAT
WARMER TEMPERATURES, MANY LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE MIN RH IN THE
MID-TEENS, AND OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES IN THE 40S. HOWEVER, NOT
REALLY CRITICAL, AND BARELY ELEVATED CONDITIONS, DUE TO GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. ALL OF THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WILL BE
DRY, AND FREE OF ANY PRECIPITATION OR STORMS.
VENTILLATION WILL BE GOOD OR BETTER MOST AFTERNOONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 79 52 78 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 54 75 45 72 / 40 40 0 0
LAS CRUCES 50 74 47 74 / 10 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 52 74 45 72 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 52 32 52 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 72 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 42 66 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 45 77 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 77 52 76 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 54 78 44 76 / 20 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 60 81 50 79 / 30 30 0 0
LOMA LINDA 55 71 46 69 / 20 10 0 0
FABENS 59 80 50 77 / 20 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 55 75 48 75 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 76 51 75 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 48 74 46 74 / 10 0 0 0
HATCH 47 77 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 52 77 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 52 74 43 72 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 44 64 38 64 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 64 37 63 / 20 0 0 0
TIMBERON 42 62 36 60 / 20 0 0 0
WINSTON 36 66 37 69 / 0 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 46 73 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 44 73 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 67 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 42 70 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 42 73 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 40 69 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 45 69 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 46 73 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 74 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 47 68 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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