098
FXUS64 KEPZ 021709
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1109 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1108 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2025
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY, MOSTLY
CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN AREAS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
- RAINFALL CHANCES START TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WE
GET SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2025
SOME DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY
ELONGATED/AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW
THROUGH THE BORDERLAND. THERE IS JUST A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA EACH AFTERNOON AND
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN CATRON AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES THAT TRY TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN GRANT AND OTERO
COUNTIES THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS, SO KEPT IN THE ISOLATED
POPS. TEMPERATURES WITH THE DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGE WILL WARM
BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST OF THE LOWLANDS INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S.
AS WE HEAD INTO LATE THU INTO SAT, WE ARE WATCHING WHAT WILL BE
THE REMNANTS OF LORENA. OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
BULLISH OF ALL THE MODELS, BUT QUICK LOOK AT 12Z RUN SHOWS A
LITTLE SLOW DOWN BUT HEAVIER RAIN FROM SW TO NE CWA. GFS ENSEMBLES
ARE STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS. EC WHEN LOOKING AT
MOISTURE FIELDS, DOES HAVE A SIMILAR PATH OF MOISTURE BREAKING OFF
FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM, BUT NOT NEARLY AS OPTIMISTIC ON QPF
TOTALS. IT DOES SEEM LIKE THE UPPER PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND THINK EVEN
WITH THE LATEST SLOWDOWN OF THE GFS, THAT IT MAY STILL BE TOO
FAST. FOR NOW NBM POPS SEEM REASONABLE, BUT DID RAISE ABOUT 10
PERCENT GOING INTO SAT WITH A SLOWER STORM PROGRESSION. FOR NOW
DIDN'T MESS WITH QPF WHICH IS RANGES FROM ABOUT A THIRD OF AN INCH
OVER EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE NM BOOTHEEL
AND IN THE SACS. WIDESPREAD HALF INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE REMAINING
LOWLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED, BUT NOT GOING AS LOW AS MEX GUIDANCE WHICH HAS A
HIGH OF 76 FRI AND 79 SAT IN ELP. AGAIN, NBM LOOKED REASONABLE
WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 80S.
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO REBUILD OFF TO THE WEST AND PUSH INTO THE
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS BRINGS A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S FOR THE LOWLANDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2025
P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT200-250 THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING THEN SKIES
BECOMING SKC-FEW200-250. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AOB 12KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING VARIABLE UNDER 6KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2025
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
JUST A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MIN RH'S THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL BE FALLING INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. GOING INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK, THERE WILL BE SOME REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
MOVES UP INTO THE REGION, STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH WILL
MAKE IT UP THIS WAY. THERE WILL BE COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES AND
RISING RH'S. TEMPERATURES WARM AND RH'S DRY OUT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 59 89 65 90 / 0 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 62 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 62 91 67 91 / 0 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 46 68 50 69 / 0 20 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 90 65 90 / 0 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 58 84 62 83 / 0 10 0 20
DEMING 62 92 65 92 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 63 90 65 86 / 0 10 0 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 60 92 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 65 93 67 95 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 61 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 64 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 64 90 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 92 70 92 / 0 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 60 91 67 90 / 0 10 0 0
HATCH 62 93 65 93 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 61 89 65 90 / 0 10 0 0
MAYHILL 50 79 56 80 / 0 20 0 10
MESCALERO 50 80 55 81 / 0 20 0 10
TIMBERON 46 77 54 78 / 0 10 0 0
WINSTON 51 83 54 82 / 10 10 0 10
HILLSBORO 59 89 62 90 / 0 10 0 10
SPACEPORT 61 91 64 90 / 0 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 49 85 53 84 / 0 20 0 20
HURLEY 58 87 61 85 / 0 10 0 10
CLIFF 55 91 61 88 / 10 10 10 20
MULE CREEK 53 87 56 83 / 10 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 59 86 63 85 / 0 10 0 10
ANIMAS 61 90 63 85 / 0 10 10 30
HACHITA 61 89 65 88 / 0 0 0 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 60 88 63 84 / 0 10 0 20
CLOVERDALE 59 84 62 80 / 10 10 10 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page