279
FXUS64 KEPZ 090003
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
503 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MST THU DEC 8 2022
QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES MONDAY/TUESDAY AND
SHOULD BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS, LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MST THU DEC 8 2022
QUIET SHORT TERM WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SETS IN OVER THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT, THAT WILL ONLY BRING
IN SOME HIGH-LEVEL CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT WIND.
ON FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW SETS IN, WITH THE REGION WEDGED BETWEEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OVER N CO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE LOW-END BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MST THU DEC 8 2022
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT WIND
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY
UNCHANGED ON SATURDAY, BUT H85 WAA WILL HELP TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY TO BECOME THE WARMEST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ROUGHLY
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE (LOWLAND MID TO UPPER 60S).
ON MONDAY, THINGS GET INTERESTING. WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS ARE STILL
SHOWING A STRONG/ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW CENTERED AROUND THE CENTRAL
NEVADA/UTAH BORDER, BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND (MAIN IMPACT) LIGHT
PRECIP/MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
WIND: WIND RAMPS UP MONDAY AS A 130 TO 150KT H25 JET ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS HAS BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING, BUT THERE ARE STRENGTH DIFFERENCES (GFS BEING
STRONGER). IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A 40-55 KNOT H70
JET. THIS, COMBINED WITH BL MIXING TO THAT LEVEL (POTENTIALLY
ABOVE), AND DECENTLY STRONG BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS, THESE WINDS CAN
MIX DOWN AS GUSTS. ALREADY, IT'S LOOKING LIKE THERE MAY BE WIND
PRODUCTS NEEDED ON DAY 5/6, THEREFORE TAKE HEED OF YOUR OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY DECORATIONS.
PRECIP/MOUNTAIN SNOW: AVAILABLE ATMS MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE LOW
END WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING. NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLES GIVE 10-30 YEAR RETURN INTERVAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BELOW NORMAL (-1) ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE,
PRECIPITATION OVERALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. QPF TOTALS
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED OVER LAST RUN, HOWEVER THEY ARE STILL LOOKING
LOW WITH LESS THAN 0.4" FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
AND LESS THAN TWO TENTHS FOR THE SACS. HOWEVER THIS STRONG SYSTEM
WILL BE MAKING EFFICIENT USE OF WHATEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE WHEN IT COMES TO SNOW TOTALS. PRECIP START ON MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE NW, AND ALREADY SNOW LEVELS IN THE GILA
WILL BE DOWN TO ~7000 FEET. OVERNIGHT MONDAY, SNOW LEVELS DROP TO
~5000 FEET, BUT THE PRECIP MAY STAY TO WESTERN ZONES. BY TUESDAY
MORNING, SNOW LEVELS DROP TO ~4000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING. PRECIPITATION ENDS ALTOGETHER ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, SNOW TOTALS ONLY REACH 1-3" IN THE GILA.
LESS THAN 0.5" IN THE SACS, AND *POSSIBLY* A TRACE IN THE
LOWLANDS. KEEP IN MIND, THIS FORECAST WILL CHANGE MANY TIMES
BEFORE THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES.
COOLER TEMPERATURES: IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS BETTER TIMING FOR THE
FRONT, WHICH MAY MAKE IT THROUGH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND
THEREFORE THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. TUESDAY, THEY WILL BE MUCH LOWER AREA WIDE. RIGHT NOW
LOWLAND HIGHS FOR TUESDAY BARELY REACH INTO THE 50S (THIS IS 8-20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE), THOUGH THE NBM STILL LOOKS WARM FOR THIS
SYSTEM. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE TEMPS DROP A FEW MORE
DEGREES.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING, LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT BY WEDNESDAY, THINGS WILL DRY OUT. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 453 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022
WE WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WE WILL SEE HIGH
CEILINGS OF BKN250 FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KTCS. OUR
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH.
FOR FRIDAY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BKN250 CEILINGS WITH LIGHT
WEST WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MST THU DEC 8 2022
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS THEN PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM
IS MODELED TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY, LIKELY RESULTING IN HIGH WINDS
FOR THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS WELL AS LIGHT MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 43 66 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 44 65 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 36 62 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 35 63 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 27 44 26 44 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 34 60 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 56 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 34 63 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 33 61 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 44 64 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 39 65 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 43 69 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 41 60 38 57 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 42 66 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 39 62 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 63 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 35 61 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 33 62 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 38 62 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 38 63 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 31 57 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 30 55 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 30 52 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 30 55 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 32 62 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 33 60 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 28 55 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 33 60 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 25 62 21 63 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 32 55 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 36 59 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 32 63 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 33 63 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 65 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 36 58 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...15-BRICE
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