008
FXUS64 KEPZ 250950
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
350 AM MDT TUE JUN 25 2019
SYNOPSIS
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
A MONSOONAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COVER MOST OF
THE COUNTRY WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SCENARIO WILL INDUCE A MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
BEGINNING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY AND THEN
SPREADING WESTWARD.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEREFORE ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE 40S AND 50S CAUSING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND .75 TO 1.1 INCH BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH ALMOST ALL
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF SEASONABLY WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL DESTABILIZE AIR
MASS WITH AFTERNOON CAPE'S AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG AGAIN SPREADING
EAST TO WEST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED.
INHIBITING AND LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A RIDGE ALOFT WHICH WILL
DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE CWA AND
EXHIBIT LITTLE MOVEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY
TO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRING LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND ALSO TEND TO BLOCK ANY DISTURBANCE ALOFT FROM
ENTERING THE REGION MEANING THUNDERSTORMS INITIATION WILL DEPEND
MAINLY ON SURFACE HEATING AND OUTFLOWS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH
UPSLOPE LIFT ENHANCING STORM FORMATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERALL THIS SITUATION WILL KEEP STORM COVERAGE MAINLY ISOLATED
LOWLANDS AND SCATTERED HIGHER MOUNTAINS. SEVERAL AREAS MAY STILL
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINS GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. DCAPE'S
ABOVE 1000 J/KG ALSO INDICATES A RISK OF STRONGER DOWNBURSTS.
AVIATION
VALID 25/12Z-26/12Z.
ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF AN ELP-ALM LINE MAINLY FROM 21Z-
03Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKIES SKC-SCT080. WIND SPEED
MAINLY AROUND 5-15KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY FROM 5
TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 100 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 95 66 92 67 / 20 10 10 10
LAS CRUCES 98 67 97 68 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 99 67 97 66 / 0 0 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 76 47 73 50 / 10 0 30 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 99 66 96 68 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 91 58 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 99 63 97 65 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 98 62 95 65 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 99 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 97 66 98 67 / 20 10 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 100 72 100 73 / 10 0 10 10
LOMA LINDA 92 68 92 70 / 0 0 10 10
FABENS 99 73 99 74 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 99 68 97 69 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 98 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 98 65 96 66 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 99 64 97 66 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 100 69 97 70 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 98 68 96 68 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 84 51 83 55 / 10 0 30 20
MESCALERO 84 50 83 53 / 10 0 30 20
TIMBERON 81 48 80 52 / 10 0 30 20
WINSTON 89 46 90 53 / 0 0 20 0
HILLSBORO 96 59 94 63 / 0 0 10 0
SPACEPORT 98 63 95 63 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 93 49 92 55 / 0 0 10 0
HURLEY 92 57 92 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 97 48 95 54 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 95 48 93 63 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 92 59 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 101 62 97 64 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 99 60 97 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 99 62 96 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 93 60 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
05 ROGASH
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