070
FXUS64 KEPZ 211121
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
421 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 230 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS MILD, DRY, AND BREEZY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
PLEASANT WEEKEND OF WEATHER AHEAD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUES.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EXTENDS INTO OUR AREA,
DIVERTING THE POLAR JET TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. LOWLAND HIGHS
WILL RUN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER, GENERALLY
IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S.
UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN EARLY THIS WEEK, RETROGRADING WEST OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE YEAR AS A PROGRESSIVE
TRAIN OF UPPER WAVES PASS BY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE FIRST WEAK WAVE PASSES THROUGH ON
MONDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FIRST WAVE.
SECOND WAVE IS A BIT STRONGER, DEPICTED AS A CLOSED LOW CROSSING
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON CHRISTMAS DAY. EL PASO AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM, SUGGESTING
ANOTHER DRY EVENT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. NBM DOES HAVE
LOW-END POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES, WHERE A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE. WINDS INCREASE CHRISTMAS EVENING AS
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES, BECOMING SOMEWHAT BREEZY (PEAK
GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE). TEMPERATURES FALL A FEW DEGREES ON
THURSDAY, CLOSER TO NORMAL BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. AGAIN, THIS IS ALL LOW-IMPACT
WEATHER BUT AT LEAST SOMETHING TO DISCUSS.
THIRD WAVE TIMED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK, AROUND FRIDAY. AGAIN, SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. EXTENDED
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN TOWARD THE END OF 2024,
SUGGESTING MORE WARM AND DRY LOW-IMPACT WEATHER FOR NEW YEAR'S
EVE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND. SKIES SKC-FEW250 AND SURFACE WINDS 350-040 AOB 6 KNOTS.
LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN AND DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
LOW FIRE DANGER THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MIN RH 15-25%.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
DECEMBER. SMOKE VENTILATION REMAINING POOR.
WEST FLOW INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY) AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY WITH PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS PASSING TO OUR NORTH. BREEZY
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH THOSE EVENINGS, WITH STRONGER GUSTS THROUGH
VALLEYS AND EAST SLOPES. FUEL MOISTURE IS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 39 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 37 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 35 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 64 32 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 31 50 33 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 34 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 65 37 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 67 30 71 34 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 67 29 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 39 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 64 29 68 31 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 32 71 33 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 60 39 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 66 33 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 63 33 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 40 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 64 29 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 67 29 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 65 33 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 62 33 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 63 35 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 61 32 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 59 31 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 63 27 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 65 34 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 64 29 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 67 33 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 66 31 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 72 19 72 23 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 67 33 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 64 34 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 69 31 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 67 28 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 34 74 36 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 69 43 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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