155
FXUS64 KEPZ 251201
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
501 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 444 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
- DRY WEATHER, WITH FEW CLOUDS, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TODAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK,
INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.
- WE WILL SEE A COOLING TREND STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 855 PM MST MON NOV 24 2025
WE WILL HAVE A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THEN WE
WILL HAVE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENTLY WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
MISSOURI AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NEAR ZERO, BUT IT WON'T ALLOW FOR ANY QUICK WARM UPS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RUN JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. THEN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY
WEATHER, BUT IT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO JUMP 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND DEEPER TROUGHS MOVE IN
OUR DIRECTION. INITIALLY A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS, ONE ON
SATURDAY AND ONE ON SUNDAY WILL DASH ACROSS THE REGION, HAVING
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. BY SUNDAY EVENING THOUGH, A MUCH
DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE GETTING ORGANIZED SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF.
FOR NOW THERE IS A CHANCE (20 TO 40%) OF LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT (WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE) AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL WAY TO
EARLY TO START TALKING ABOUT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DRY NW FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY SKC, WITH FAIR AND
BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO CALM AND VARIABLE, WITH A FAVORING OF NW THROUGH NE
DIRECTIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 444 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, AND A FLAT NW TO W FLOW PATTERN ALOFT KEEPS
THE STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS, WITH PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP STEADY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, JUST A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL, BEFORE WARMING MORE LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
INCREASING AFTERNOON GUSTS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, AS THE NEXT
STORMS SYSTEM BEGINS TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH AFTERNOON RH DOWN IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE, BUT WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES, DUE TO CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE MID RANGE FORECAST MODELS, GFS AND ECMWF, ARE REALLY
STRUGGLING WITH THE WEATHER FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY. FOR SEVERAL
RUNS, WE WERE SEEING LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS OUR
REGION, WITH MUCH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS. THE LATEST MODEL
OFFERINGS ARE BACKING WAY OFF OF THOSE SOLUTIONS, WITH SUGGESTIONS
THOSE SYSTEMS WILL PASS QUICKLY TO OUR NORTH, WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS TO OUR AREA. STAND BY AS WE TRY TO FIND SOME MODEL
STABILITY, AND GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
BEYOND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 40 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 34 61 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 33 61 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 32 61 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 23 44 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 36 61 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 34 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 34 65 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 34 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 42 64 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 32 62 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 37 69 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 37 59 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 37 67 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 36 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 63 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 31 62 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 31 64 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 37 65 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 34 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 25 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 25 56 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 24 51 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 27 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 36 61 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 29 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 29 61 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 32 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 31 66 32 70 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 30 64 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 36 59 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 33 64 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 32 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 33 64 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 38 61 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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