427
FXUS64 KEPZ 202128
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
328 PM MDT FRI SEP 20 2019
SYNOPSIS
AFTER A MAINLY DRY AND WARM FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. THEN FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WE
WILL SEE EVEN BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. THEN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL SEE
LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WE ARE CAUGHT BETWEEN
DRY AIR TO OUR NORTH AND LOTS OF MOIST AIR TO OUR SOUTH. TO OUR
EAST IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TO
OUR WEST IS A SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND TO
COMPLICATE THINGS A LITTLE FURTHER, TO OUR SOUTH IS HURRICANE
LORENA. AS A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENT AIR MASSES THAT ARE
BATTLING TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER, IF YOU LOOK AT THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES (MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR) ACROSS
THE AREA YOU WILL SEE THAT IT RANGES FROM A VERY DRY 0.50 INCHES
IN THE GILA TO A LITTLE OVER 1.50 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF HUDSPETH COUNTY. FOR THIS EVENING IT LOOKS LIKE THE DRIER AIR
WILL WIN OUT AS OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO HUDSPETH
COUNTY AND MAYBE A STRAY STORM IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. ON
SATURDAY, THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO OUR WEST WILL GET A LITTLE CLOSER AND WE WILL SEE THE MOIST AIR
PUSH BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR TO
THE NORTHWEST WILL IT PUSH. IF THE PUSH NORTHWEST IS WEAK, EL
PASO AND LAS CRUCES WILL BE SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS NEAR 90, BUT
IF THE PUSH IS STRONGER, WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, EL PASO AND LAS
CRUCES COULD BE RAINY OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70'S. MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY AND WARM NO
MATTER WHAT. FOR NOW I HAVE TRENDED OUR TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE
RIO A LITTLE LOWER AND RAISED OUR RAIN CHANCES, BUT KEPT LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE RIO ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY.
THEN ON SUNDAY THE GFS BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF LORENA DIRECTLY OVER
THE BORDERLAND, WHICH WOULD GIVE US LOTS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT RIGHT NOW THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER. I HAVE
INCREASED THE MOISTURE ENOUGH SO THAT THE WHOLE AREA WILL HAVE AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES AGAIN WILL
BE EAST AND SOUTH. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO OUR WEST WILL DROP DOWN AND CLOSE OFF IN ARIZONA. THIS WILL
HELP GENERATE SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE AS
TO WHETHER WE SEE LOTS AND LOTS OF RAIN (WITH THE LOW FURTHER
EAST) OR JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (WITH THE LOW
FURTHER TO THE WEST). FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH HIGH SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE OUT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEN AS THE TROUGH
FINALLY LIFTS OUT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE COULD BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.
THE TEMPERATURES FORECAST, LIKE THE RAIN FORECAST, WILL BE
TRICKY. I WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE RIVER, AS IT LOOKS LIKE
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CUT OFF OUR HEATING, BUT FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO MORE WARM TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS
CONTINUING TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, THEN AS THE TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SWINGS BY, WE WILL SEE HIGHS RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z-22/00Z
P6SM FEW-SCT070-090 SCT-BKN200-
250 EAST OF RIO GRANDE THROUGH 06Z WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
VRB25G40KT 1-3SM TSRA BKN030-040. AREAS WEST OF RIVER THROUGH 18Z
P6SM SKC-FEW120-150 THEN SCT070-090 SCT-BKN200-250. ISOLATED STORMS
WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z BUT EXTEND FURTHER WEST AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
KALM-KSVC LINE. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO WEST AT 5-15KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND MOVING ACROSS ROCKIES. THE FIRST ONE
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY FAR EAST LATER
TODAY AND OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THIS
WEEKEND. SOME OF THE MOISTURE WITH THESE SYSTEMS COULD BE REMNANTS
FROM HURRICANE LORENA. A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN BAJA REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL TAP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING AT
OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT, DRIEST AIR WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LOWLANDS THIS
WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT BUT COULD BE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AS
EACH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 89 67 89 / 0 20 30 20
SIERRA BLANCA 64 84 62 85 / 20 40 50 30
LAS CRUCES 62 86 60 87 / 0 20 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 64 88 62 89 / 0 0 20 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 67 47 70 / 10 20 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 87 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 56 78 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 60 86 60 87 / 0 20 0 0
LORDSBURG 59 84 59 87 / 0 20 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 89 68 90 / 0 20 30 20
DELL CITY 66 90 64 92 / 20 40 50 20
FORT HANCOCK 70 92 69 92 / 0 30 40 20
LOMA LINDA 65 85 63 84 / 0 20 30 20
FABENS 69 90 67 90 / 0 20 30 20
SANTA TERESA 65 87 63 88 / 0 20 30 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 87 64 89 / 0 20 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 62 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 61 88 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 63 86 63 87 / 0 20 10 20
OROGRANDE 65 87 63 89 / 0 20 30 10
MAYHILL 53 77 52 79 / 10 20 20 10
MESCALERO 51 77 49 79 / 10 20 20 0
TIMBERON 51 74 50 76 / 10 20 30 10
WINSTON 47 79 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 57 84 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 59 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 49 79 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 55 81 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 52 86 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 54 79 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 57 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 59 86 59 87 / 0 20 20 20
HACHITA 59 84 58 85 / 0 20 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 59 84 60 84 / 0 30 20 30
CLOVERDALE 59 79 58 81 / 0 30 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
BRICE/GRZYWACZ
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