887
FXUS64 KEPZ 141145
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
545 AM MDT FRI MAY 14 2021
UPDATE
AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z, WITH ONLY
SOME ISOL 150-250 CLOUDS. AFT 18Z FEW-SCT CU OVER AREA MOUNTAINS
WITH ISOL TCU AND CB FORMING. PROB30 TSRA OVER GILA/BLACKS REGION
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BY 20Z. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE
WITH VRB35G50KTS ACROSS LOWLANDS AFT 21Z THROUGH 03Z. POSSIBLE
BLDU WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO 1SM AFT 23Z. IN VCTY OF TSRA SKIES
BKN100 OVC140, VSBY 1-3 SM IN RA AND BLDU, WINDS VRB35G50KTS BTWN
23Z-03Z.
PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT FRI MAY 14 2021
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL FEATURE ONE MORE SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF US
AS MOISTURE WILL EXIT ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWING, EACH AFTERNOON WILL
FEATURE BREEZY CONDITIONS WHILE SEASONABLY WARM. TUESDAY WILL
FEATURE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM, BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY FOLLOWING SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NEAR 90 DEGREE LOWLAND HIGH YESTERDAY, AND WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER TODAY. THUS SURFACE HEAT INSTABILITY IS A GIVEN. WE CONTINUE
WITH SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WITH SURFACE
TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS OPEN OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THUS WE CONTINUE TO KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOWER AND MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE 40 DEGREE MARK AND THE AREA WILL AVERAGE 0.50"-1.00"
PWAT TODAY. WE STILL HAVE THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WE HAD
YESTERDAY, WHICH LIKELY DID LIMIT CONVECTION OVER OUR REGION, BUT
WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ALL OF IT. THUS WE KNOW IT IS NOT A
FACTOR THAT WILL ELIMINATE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS OVER OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE GILA/BLACKS/SACS BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON
TODAY...WITH STORMS MOVING EAST, AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CAPES ARE NOT AS HIGH IN TODAY'S MODELS (~700 J/KG) AS THEY WERE FOR
TODAY IN YESTERDAY'S RUNS (~1000 J/KG)...BUT STILL PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW STRONG STORMS. DCAPE IS DEFINITELY HIGHER THAN
CAPE, AVERAGING (1500 J/KG). THUS THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY, LIKE
YESTERDAY, IS GOING TO BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST,
FOLLOWED BY SMALL HAIL.
EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP STORMS
GOING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH STORMS CONTINUING OVER AREAS
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 10 PM.
14
LONG TERM
SAY GOODBYE TO THE MOISTURE BECAUSE IT BEGINS TO LEAVE ON
SATURDAY, CLEARING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES WELL AHEAD OF AN UL LOW OVER CENTRAL CA. LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS SLOWED THE MOISTURE'S DEPARTURE SINCE YESTERDAY'S FORECAST, SO
POPS WERE PULLED FURTHER WEST. EITHER WAY, I THINK MOST LOCATIONS
STAY DRY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SACS. THE 6Z
HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION AS FAR WEST AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, BUT
FORECAST DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 20S. IF THAT COMES TO PASS, MUCH OF
THAT PRECIP WOULD BE VIRGA. EITHER WAY, IT WAS DISCOUNTED FOR THE
FORECAST.
THE UL LOW MAKES VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS, WHILE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP
A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH OVER NM AND THUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY AND SEASONABLY WARM. THE CORE OF THE LOW
BEGINS TO ENTER NM BY MONDAY EVENING. FROM HERE, THE GFS AND EURO
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE EURO KEEPS THE CWA
FIRMLY WITHIN THE DRY SLOT ON ITS LATEST RUN WITH ANOTHER S/W
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE AHEAD OF A SHARP TROUGH. THIS
PATTERN KEEPS US SEASONABLY WARM WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES TO FINISH
THE PERIOD. THE GFS BRINGS A VORT MAX ON THE LOW'S BACK END WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA ON
TUESDAY. IT THEN BRINGS A SHAPER S/W RIDGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
WEAK S/W THAT EVENTUALLY BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES TO THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH MODELS VARY ON THEIR UPPER-AIR PATTERN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE RESULT IS BASICALLY THE SAME:
SEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY (THOUGH THE GFS WOULD HAVE LIGHTER
WINDS).
34
FIRE WEATHER
NOT A LOT CHANGES ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY FROM WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. WE REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT; AND THAT WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE INSTABILITY THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE,
WE CONTINUE TO HAVE BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WHICH CONTINUES THE SE AND S FLOW INTO THE REGION, RIPE WITH
MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBO OF WARM TEMPERATURES,
AND GOOD MOISTURE WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE, DESPITE THE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. WE WILL HAVE DEEP INSTABILITY WITH DYNAMICS TO HELP
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MINIMUM RH,
AND GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS, WILL KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOWER
THAN TYPICAL FOR THE SEASON. HOWEVER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
VERY STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW STRIKES OF
DRY LIGHTNING.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST, AS THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES. THIS WILL
RETURN THE REGION TO A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS, AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
14
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 91 65 91 66 / 20 20 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 84 56 84 58 / 40 40 10 0
LAS CRUCES 87 60 88 60 / 20 20 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 89 58 87 58 / 40 30 20 0
CLOUDCROFT 66 45 64 45 / 40 30 20 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 85 59 87 57 / 30 20 10 0
SILVER CITY 83 55 80 53 / 20 20 0 0
DEMING 92 57 90 53 / 20 20 0 0
LORDSBURG 91 58 87 52 / 20 20 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 92 66 90 66 / 20 20 0 0
DELL CITY 89 57 88 57 / 40 40 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 92 59 92 61 / 20 30 0 0
LOMA LINDA 84 58 82 59 / 30 30 0 0
FABENS 92 63 91 63 / 30 30 0 0
SANTA TERESA 90 61 88 60 / 20 20 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 89 64 88 64 / 30 30 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 86 59 87 59 / 30 20 10 0
HATCH 89 59 89 58 / 30 20 0 0
COLUMBUS 91 62 89 59 / 20 20 0 0
OROGRANDE 89 60 87 60 / 30 30 10 0
MAYHILL 76 49 76 49 / 40 30 20 0
MESCALERO 76 48 75 49 / 40 30 30 0
TIMBERON 74 45 73 45 / 40 40 20 0
WINSTON 78 44 80 42 / 50 20 10 0
HILLSBORO 85 54 85 54 / 30 20 0 0
SPACEPORT 85 57 87 55 / 30 20 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 84 49 81 47 / 20 20 0 0
HURLEY 86 50 83 48 / 20 20 0 0
CLIFF 93 47 89 43 / 20 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 86 54 82 47 / 20 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 86 54 82 53 / 20 20 0 0
ANIMAS 92 58 88 52 / 20 20 0 0
HACHITA 91 57 87 53 / 20 20 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 91 58 87 53 / 20 20 0 0
CLOVERDALE 86 56 82 52 / 20 20 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
14/34
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