619
FXUS64 KEPZ 011705
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1105 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 922 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
- STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF THE US-54
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER CONDITIONS OUT WEST
IN THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST.
- MAINLY DRY AND HOTTER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH LOWLAND
HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES. TRENDING WETTER FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 922 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
EVER A SURPRISE, THE WEATHER PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS STAGNANT, WITH A TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND A RIDGE TO OUR
EAST, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN HUDSPETH AND
OTERO COUNTIES FOR TODAY. TOMORROW WILL SEE THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS VERY DRY AIR MOVES
INTO THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL FALL BETWEEN 5-10% TOMORROW.
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, RAISING TEMPERATURES TO AT OR JUST UNDER
THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE RESTRICTED
TO JUST THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. AFTER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, A NEW
MONSOON PATTERN BEGINS TO FORM AROUND THE HIGH, BRINGING IN
MOIST, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BACK INTO OUR AREA. SCATTERED MOUNTAIN
STORMS AND ISOLATED LOWLAND STORMS ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO
OCCUR NEXT WEEK, BUT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL BE TO
IGNITE THESE THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE BETWEEN THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 922 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH, WITH SKIES RANGING FROM SKC
TO FEW120 TO BKN250. A THUNDERSTORM EAST OF KELP CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, AND ANY OUTFLOWS THAT COME FROM AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EAST
OF KELP THIS AFTERNOON COULD GENERATE OUTFLOWS UP TO 40 MPH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 922 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GILA
NATIONAL FOREST TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM
ARIZONA. MIN RHS TODAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8-13% TODAY BEFORE
FALLING TO 5-10% TOMORROW IN THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST.
MOISTURE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CONFINED TO HUDSPETH AND
OTERO COUNTIES, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TOMORROW. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND THE 100-DEGREE MARK BEFORE A NEW
MONSOON PATTERN MAY DECREASE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 65 91 65 92 / 10 30 20 30
LAS CRUCES 66 96 65 98 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 96 67 97 / 0 10 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 51 74 50 74 / 0 20 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 59 90 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 64 99 64 100 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 63 96 63 98 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 67 95 67 97 / 10 20 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 72 98 71 99 / 10 10 10 20
LOMA LINDA 67 90 66 91 / 0 10 10 30
FABENS 72 99 71 100 / 10 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 69 96 69 97 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 73 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 66 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 65 100 65 101 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 71 99 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 95 66 96 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 56 85 55 85 / 0 40 10 40
MESCALERO 54 85 54 86 / 0 20 0 30
TIMBERON 53 82 52 82 / 10 20 10 30
WINSTON 55 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 63 95 64 97 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 62 97 63 98 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 53 91 53 93 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 59 93 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 58 95 59 98 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 57 91 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 62 92 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 63 96 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 63 96 64 98 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 96 66 97 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 62 90 62 92 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...41-ZOTTER
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