278
FXUS64 KEPZ 250551
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1151 PM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WINDY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE END OF THE MONTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM OCTOBER WEATHER TODAY WITH SEVERAL DAILY RECORD
HIGHS BEING BROKEN BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EL PASO HAS
REACHED INTO THE LOWER 90S, ONE OF THE LATEST 90-DEGREE READINGS
ON RECORD FOR THE AREA.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
THE SOUTHERN ADVANCEMENT OF A COLD FRONT DOWN THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPILLING OVER THE
SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE RANGES AND INTO OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, REACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE.
EAST FLOW FRIDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP A FEW
DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. LOWLAND HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN
THE MID 80S, STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER AND A LOT OF
THE COOLER, LESS MODIFIED CANADIAN AIRMASS STAYS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND TRANS-PECOS. THIS
COOL DOWN WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED.
ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. STEADY WARMING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN AND KEEP THE REGION HOT AND DRY. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
MONDAY HEAD OF OUR NEXT PATTERN SHIFT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT PACIFIC
WAVE SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORM TRACKS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THIS UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, RESULTING
IN WINDY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING AT NBM PROBABILITIES, THERE'S A CHANCE WE'LL NEED WIND
HEADLINES ON TUESDAY AS THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE FALL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NEXT
WEEK AND FOR HALLOWEEN, MUCH CLOSER TO WHAT WE SHOULD BE EXPECTING
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. OUR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST
BY LATER THIS MORNING. WE COULD SEE SOME LOW END GUSTY WINDS FOR
A FEW HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SLOPES OF
AREA MOUNTAINS. ANY GUSTINESS WILL DROP OFF SOON AFTER SUNSET
FRIDAY EVENING. WE WILL SEE OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS OF
SCT-BKN250 TONIGHT, BUT OUR CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY UNLIMITED
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU OCT 24 2024
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST AREA WIDE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP A FEW DEGREES, BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
RETURN WITH THESE FRONT EITHER, SO MIN RH WILL REMAIN 10-20% FOR
MOST AREAS. SMOKE VENTILATION WILL BE POOR ACROSS LNF, BUT GOOD
ACROSS GNF TOMORROW.
ABNORMAL OCTOBER WARMTH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND MIN RH 15 TO 25% EACH AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO PEAK NEXT TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 58 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 53 79 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 53 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 51 81 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 36 62 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 52 80 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 54 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 51 84 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 51 85 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 59 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 51 79 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 55 87 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 53 76 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 53 85 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 53 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 56 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 50 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 49 84 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 53 84 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 50 80 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 40 70 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 40 73 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 40 70 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 42 74 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 51 81 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 48 82 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 47 80 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 49 81 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 42 89 42 89 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 82 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 79 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 51 87 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 50 84 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 53 86 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 57 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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