976
FXUS64 KEPZ 271150
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
450 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 421 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
- TODAY, THANKSGIVING DAY, FAIR AND DRY WEATHER, WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS, MILD TEMPERATURES, AND LIGHT WINDS.
- HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH. PASSING PACIFIC
TROUGHS WILL CLIP THE REGION, WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT
NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 938 PM MST WED NOV 26 2025
FOR TURKEY DAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUING. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS TEMPS HOLD ABOVE NORMAL.
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL US ON SATURDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH ARRIVES IN OUR AREA
THAT EVENING. THE COLD AIR/WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT
SIGNIFICANT THROUGH SUNDAY, SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH STAYS OVER THE
MIDWEST. GUSTY WINDS (TO 25 MPH) CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WEST
SLOPES OF MTNS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO GET PAST THE
RGV. TEMPERATURES FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING BY TUE.
IT SEEMS LIKE THE STORM TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO GIVE US MUCH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY, BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN PART OF NM. WE LOOK TO REMAIN DRY IN OUR CWA
WITH BREEZY WINDS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. THERE'S A
VERY LOW CHANCE (<20%) OF MTN SNOW SHOWERS MON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
TERMINALS. SKIES WILL TRANSITION FROM SKC TO BKN250 THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH CIGS STAYING VERY HIGH. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT, IN THE
3-7KT RANGE, AND SHIFT FROM NNW TO N AND THEN E-SE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 421 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIODS AS WE STAY
UNDER FALL WEST FLOW PATTERN, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO OUR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST, KEEPING THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH. FOR THE SHORT
TERM THIS MEANS FAIR WEATHER, WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT, AND STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY TERRAIN. SKIES
WILL VARY WITH PLENTY OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD AND BETTER, THANKS
TO CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES, AND WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS
WILL ALLOW FOR MINRH TO DROP INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR TODAY, DUE TO LOW MIXING AND
LIGHT WINDS, BUT WILL IMPROVE OVER TIME WITH PASSING TROUGHS TO
OUR NORTH, BRINGING SOME BETTER WINDS AND DEEPER MIXING THIS
WEEKEND.
AS UPPER TROUGHS PASS TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY AND MONDAY, WE WILL
SEE MARGINAL INCREASES IN WINDS, AND SOME MINOR BACKDOOR FRONTS,
WITH SHORT PERIODS OF EAST WINDS (FRIDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS). THE
FRIDAY PASSAGE WILL BE COMPLETELY DRY. THE MONDAY PASSAGE MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW,
AND AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A BIT LOWER,
BUT STILL LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE DAILY AVERAGES FOR
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 45 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 39 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 37 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 66 37 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 30 46 21 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 39 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 62 36 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 70 36 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 67 34 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 45 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 71 36 70 30 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 76 42 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 63 41 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 72 41 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 68 39 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 68 44 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 66 34 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 70 33 68 31 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 71 41 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 66 36 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 61 36 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 59 32 57 24 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 55 31 55 22 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 63 31 60 26 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 68 38 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 66 31 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 63 31 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 66 35 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 68 32 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 64 32 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 64 38 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 70 36 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 69 34 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 71 38 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 63 39 60 40 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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