597  
FXUS64 KEPZ 290854  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
254 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 250 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025  
 
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
- WINDY WITH NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
THROUGH SUNDAY, RETURNING AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR VARIATIONS WILL PERSIST  
WITH A MODERATE CHANCE FOR A COOL DOWN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025  
 
AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF  
OF THE CONUS, IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN  
FEATURING FIRE DANGER AND WIND. THAT WILL BE TRUE FOR TODAY'S  
WEATHER AS A S/W TROUGH, LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY  
WILL SWEEP EAST TODAY WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE RIO GRANDE  
VALLEY AROUND NOON. 65KT H500 JET JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND ~995 MB  
SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE  
ENTIRE AREA WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE. IT WON'T  
BE WINDY ENOUGH FOR ANY WIND HEADLINES, ALTHOUGH I WOULDN'T BE  
SURPRISED BY A GUST OR TWO JUST OVER 50 MPH ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES  
OF AREA MOUNTAINS, BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS. IT WILL ALSO LIKELY LOFT SOME DUST THOUGH  
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.  
 
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS ANOTHER S/W DASHES  
ACROSS NM THIS TIME RIGHT OVER THE CWA. H500 JET WILL BE AROUND 65  
KNOTS AGAIN, BUT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPRESS LEE  
TROUGHING WITH A BROAD SFC CYCLONE OVER NE NM. THE WEAKER LOW WILL  
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY,  
BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS.  
 
MONDAY WILL SEE A DOWNTICK IN WIND AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE S/W RIDGE  
MOVES ACROSS NM. MODEST JET ENERGY AND WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL FOSTER  
SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES, BUT IT WILL BE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WIND  
AS A STRONGER JET MAX AND CLOSED LOW TAKES SHAPE OFF THE PACIFIC  
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR TUESDAY. EXIT REGION  
OF THE JET WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN NM WITH SURFACE PRESSURE  
FALLS ACROSS EASTERN KS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR  
AREA WITH WINDS ON THE INCREASE. 75TH PERCENTILE MAX WIND GUSTS  
PUT MUCH OF THE AREA IN ADVISORY TO NEAR WARNING LEVEL WINDS.  
THIS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING DUST CONCERNS AS WELL AS CRITICAL FIRE  
CONDITIONS. THE CENTER OF THE 85 KT H500 JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH  
NORTHERN NM OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP EAST SLOPE LOCATIONS WINDY  
AS WELL AS DRAG A PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY,  
WE'RE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE JET BUT WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY  
REMAINING. THUS, WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN WINDY THOUGH A BIT LOWER  
THAN TUESDAY. 75TH PERCENTILE MAX GUST SHOWS MOST LOCATIONS NEAR  
OR JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.  
 
HEADING INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD, A SHARP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE  
TO DEEPEN TO OUR WEST, BUT HOW IT EVOLVES LOOKS VERY DIFFERENT  
BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS. THE EURO SENDS OUT A LEAD IMPULSE ON  
THURSDAY, DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. THIS LEAD IMPULSE IS  
ABSENT IN THE GFS, BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NV  
BEFORE TREKKING EAST. THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF HOPE FOR PRECIP  
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, EVEN WITH THIS LOW, BUT HOW IT EVOLVES WILL  
MAKE FOR ABOUT A 5 TO 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN DAYTIME HIGHS BASED  
ON THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE WITHIN THE NBM.  
GIVEN THE PATTERN, IT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN BREEZY TO  
WINDY AS WELL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CRITICAL TAF PERIOD. AN  
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW SWLY TO WLY WINDS TO  
INCREASE AFT 29/16Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS COMMONPLACE  
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN. THIS COULD CREATE AREAS OF BLDU WITH  
SUBSEQUENT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF  
PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE, ALONG WITH IMPACT TO TERMINALS, DID KEEP  
VSBY REDUCTIONS OUT OF THE TAF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
EXPECT REFINEMENT TO THESE PARAMETERS IN FUTURE UPDATES. WINDS  
ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH AWW CRITERIA FOR KELP AROUND LATE MORNING  
TO EARLY AFTN AND PRODUCT ISSUANCE WILL BE FORTHCOMING.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025  
   
..MULTIPLE DAYS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER EXPECTED
 
 
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL KEEP US WITHIN A DRY AND  
WINDY PATTERN. THE FIRST TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TODAY, WHICH WILL  
INCREASE 20-FOOT TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH  
MIN RH VALUES AROUND 10% WITH 15 TO 25% IN THE MOUNTAINS. A RED  
FLAG FIRE WARNING WAS ISSUED WITH ERC VALUES 75 TO 90 PERCENT  
COMMON, EXCEPT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GILA WHERE ERCS REMAIN WETTER.  
 
A SECOND TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING 20-FOOT  
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH NEARLY EVERY LOCATION WITHIN OUR FIRE  
FORECAST AREA DROPPING BELOW 15% HUMIDITY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN  
LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. ANOTHER RED FLAG  
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE GILA CONSIDERING THE WETTER  
FUELS. TEXAS COUNTIES WILL SEE LOWER WINDS, BUT STILL NEAR THE 20  
MPH THRESHOLD.  
 
WE SEE A BREAK FROM CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS WINDS  
DROP TO AROUND 15 MPH. THIS WILL NEVERTHELESS COMBINE WITH  
SINGLE-DIGIT MIN RH VALUES, SO FIRE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN  
ELEVATED. A TWO-DAY WIND EVENT FOLLOWS THIS BREAK WITH THE  
APPROACH OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE UP  
TO AROUND 30 MPH ON TUESDAY AND 25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. MIN RHS WILL  
BE IN THE LOWER TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 7500 FEET ON BOTH  
DAYS, AND SO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 80 52 79 50 / 10 0 0 0  
SIERRA BLANCA 74 47 74 44 / 10 0 0 0  
LAS CRUCES 75 43 74 41 / 0 0 0 0  
ALAMOGORDO 74 41 75 41 / 10 0 0 0  
CLOUDCROFT 50 32 51 31 / 10 0 0 0  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 44 76 43 / 0 0 0 0  
SILVER CITY 67 38 65 37 / 0 0 0 0  
DEMING 78 41 76 40 / 0 0 0 0  
LORDSBURG 75 38 74 37 / 0 0 0 0  
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 52 76 51 / 0 0 0 0  
DELL CITY 77 46 78 44 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT HANCOCK 82 49 81 47 / 10 0 0 0  
LOMA LINDA 71 46 71 45 / 10 0 0 0  
FABENS 80 49 80 47 / 10 0 0 0  
SANTA TERESA 77 46 75 46 / 0 0 0 0  
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 52 76 49 / 10 0 0 0  
JORNADA RANGE 75 41 75 39 / 0 0 0 0  
HATCH 77 43 78 39 / 0 0 0 0  
COLUMBUS 79 46 78 45 / 0 0 0 0  
OROGRANDE 74 45 75 43 / 10 0 0 0  
MAYHILL 63 39 65 36 / 10 0 0 0  
MESCALERO 61 34 63 34 / 10 0 0 0  
TIMBERON 60 33 62 32 / 10 0 0 0  
WINSTON 65 29 67 29 / 0 0 0 0  
HILLSBORO 72 39 73 39 / 0 0 0 0  
SPACEPORT 74 38 76 37 / 0 0 0 0  
LAKE ROBERTS 66 34 66 34 / 0 0 0 0  
HURLEY 70 35 69 34 / 0 0 0 0  
CLIFF 73 34 73 32 / 0 0 0 0  
MULE CREEK 68 36 67 35 / 0 0 0 0  
FAYWOOD 69 39 69 39 / 0 0 0 0  
ANIMAS 77 39 76 39 / 0 0 0 0  
HACHITA 76 39 75 39 / 0 0 0 0  
ANTELOPE WELLS 75 42 76 40 / 0 0 0 0  
CLOVERDALE 70 41 70 42 / 10 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR  
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE  
WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.  
 
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR TEXAS FIRE  
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE  
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.  
 
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR  
CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH  
CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ-  
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.  
 
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR CAPITAN AND  
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS  
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS  
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.  
 

 
 

 
 
FORECASTER...34-BROWN  
 
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