122
FXUS64 KEPZ 281948
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
148 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
WHAT IS TYPICALLY A LOW CONFIDENCE PATTERN AS FAR AS TIMING AND
MAIN FEATURES GO, MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT,
EVEN AS THINGS GET MESSY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN
STARTS OUT WITH AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR NORTHERN BAJA AND
STALLS OUT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE TO MOVE
BACK AND FORTH MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. MODELS
AGREE ON DRYLINE TONIGHT NOT MAKING IT QUITE AS FAR LAST NIGHT
WITH A STALL OUT NEAR THE RGV. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE AREA PAST SUNSET IF IT IS EVEN AROUND BY 00Z.
TOMORROW MIXING WILL OCCUR PRETTY QUICK AND DO NOT SEE ANY STORMS
WEST OF AN KALM TO SIERRA BLANCA LINE. NBM POPS WERE BROUGHT DOWN,
ESPECIALLY OVER EL PASO AND WESTERN OTERO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP TO NEAR 100 IN EL PASO AND MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWLANDS.
PRETTY STRONG 1020MB HIGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL
HELP PUSH THE MOISTURE FURTHER WEST FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND GOING THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WITH THE AREA BEING PUT IN A
STRETCHING DEFORMATION ZONE, SHOULD GET AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. THE EC HAS COME
IN LINE WITH A FAIRLY STOUT OUTFLOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF MEXICO
AROUND 00Z WHICH SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST STORM CHANCES
GOING INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
AROUND FOR SAT BUT THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO EXTEND
NW-SE ACROSS AREA. TAPERED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY HERE AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT 3-8 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA OR SAT.
THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED GOING INTO SUN/MON AS THE CUTOFF LOW
STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE BAJA REGION WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
TRYING TO TAP SOME MOISTURE FROM A DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
FOCUS SUN AFTERNOON WILL BE FURTHER WEST AND AS WE GO INTO MONDAY,
STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT EAST. AGAIN, NBM POPS, ESPECIALLY EAST
SEEMED TOO HIGH AT AROUND 70 WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WHICH COULD
EASILY SLOW DOWN SOME MORE. GFS IS FASTEST LIFTING OUT THE TROUGH
FASTER AND HAS MOST OF THE PRECIP DONE BY LATE MON MORNING WHILE
THE EC IS SLOWER AND KEEPS THINGS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY MON.
GIVEN THESE UPPER LOWS ARE PRONE TO SLOW DOWN THEIR MOVEMENT, WILL
KEEP POPS GOING OVER AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH AND WE ARE BACK IN A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY DAYS. HOW MUCH DUST WE GET WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH AND WHERE RAIN OCCURS OVER THE COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
P6SM FEW100 FEW-SCT200-250 THROUGH PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA
BKN060-080 UNTIL 01Z EAST OF ALAMOGORDO TO SIERRA BLANCA LINE.
WINDS GENERALLY SE TO SW AOB 12KTS SHIFTING MORE TO THE W TO NW
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO HOT OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT WINDS
WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE THE QUIETER DAYS FOR STORMS WITH
JUST SOME ISOLATED ONES OUT EAST. RH'S WILL BE FALLING INTO THE
MID SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST AND REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
EAST. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE STARTING FRIDAY WITH RH'S GETTING
ABOVE 15%. AN UPPER LOW WILL START LIFTING OUT OF THE BAJA REGION
SUNDAY AND TAP SOME DECENT MOISTURE BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 99 69 93 / 10 10 20 40
SIERRA BLANCA 62 92 60 85 / 10 30 30 60
LAS CRUCES 60 95 62 91 / 0 10 10 40
ALAMOGORDO 60 94 60 92 / 0 10 20 30
CLOUDCROFT 48 69 47 69 / 0 30 20 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 94 63 92 / 0 10 10 30
SILVER CITY 56 87 59 87 / 0 0 10 20
DEMING 54 97 62 94 / 0 0 10 40
LORDSBURG 57 94 59 92 / 0 0 10 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 97 68 91 / 10 10 10 40
DELL CITY 63 93 62 85 / 10 30 20 40
FORT HANCOCK 65 100 65 94 / 10 20 20 50
LOMA LINDA 62 88 61 84 / 10 20 20 40
FABENS 66 100 66 93 / 10 10 20 40
SANTA TERESA 64 95 65 90 / 0 10 10 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 68 97 68 92 / 0 10 10 40
JORNADA RANGE 56 95 60 92 / 0 10 10 40
HATCH 58 97 61 94 / 0 10 10 40
COLUMBUS 63 97 64 93 / 0 0 10 40
OROGRANDE 63 93 63 89 / 10 20 20 40
MAYHILL 52 79 50 79 / 10 40 20 50
MESCALERO 53 80 50 80 / 0 30 20 50
TIMBERON 49 78 49 77 / 10 30 20 40
WINSTON 46 86 48 85 / 0 10 10 30
HILLSBORO 58 93 58 91 / 0 10 10 30
SPACEPORT 56 93 58 91 / 0 10 10 30
LAKE ROBERTS 40 86 43 88 / 0 10 10 20
HURLEY 53 90 55 88 / 0 0 10 30
CLIFF 44 91 46 94 / 0 0 10 20
MULE CREEK 42 89 44 90 / 0 0 10 20
FAYWOOD 55 90 60 88 / 0 0 10 30
ANIMAS 58 95 59 92 / 0 0 10 30
HACHITA 58 94 59 91 / 0 0 10 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 58 93 58 92 / 0 0 10 30
CLOVERDALE 59 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page