736
FXUS64 KEPZ 170003
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
503 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 326 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
- PACIFIC LOW BRINGS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK BEHIND A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT, WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
RUN-TO-RUN MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE POOR AS
THE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CURRENT MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED
(IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS) CLOSED-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA MTN AND GREAT BASIN REGIONS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
SAID UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL ALLOW THE TROUGH AXIS TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THE LOW'S TRACK
WILL BECOME MORE NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE INCREASE IN PVA AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INDUCE MODEST SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SE CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH IT'S
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NM. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN GRANT AND WESTERN SIERRA COUNTY, WITH GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM, BUT AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN
NM, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GILA REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL REMAIN
DRY.
THE PACIFIC COOL FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING 5-10 DEGREES AND WINDS BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWEST. PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM DIVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS CA BEFORE PIVOTING
EAST, MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT IN TO
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER, TIMING, TRACK, AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW INCONSISTENCIES WITH RUN-TO-RUN
GUIDANCE. 00Z ECMWF DATA SHOWS THIS SYSTEM TAKING A MORE
NORTHEASTERLY TRACK ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS THE SYSTEMS BASE AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. WHILE THE 06Z GFS RUN DROPS THE CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA. WITH BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOWING DIFFERENT TIMING, TRACK,
AND EVOLUTION, CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAIN LOW. THAT
SAID, AS 12Z GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
EACH SOLUTION COULD MASSAGE OUT SOME THOSE INCONSISTENCIES AND
BECOME MORE IN AGREEMENT. THAT SAID, LOOKING AT NBM AND THE
RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES, CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN TERMS OF SEEING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME WITH
LIGHT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND LIGHT LOWLAND RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCONSISTENCIES HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCT090 SCT-
BKN250. NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ANTELOPE WELLS TO T OR C...BKN070
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z.
SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 12-17G27 KNOTS, DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z TO
WEST 7-10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
RUN-TO-RUN MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE POOR AS
THE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES REGION DURING THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF GRANT/SIERRA COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NMZ110. MIN RH VALUES WILL
BE NO CONCERN, ABOVE 25 PERCENT AREAWIDE WITH VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT SMOKE VENTILATION RATES.
PACIFIC COLDS FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH WINDS BECOME WEST/NORTHWESTERLY, REMAIN BREEZY AT 10-20 MPH.
MIN RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO ME OF NO CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. VENT RATES ON MONDAY WILL BE
GOOD. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM TOURS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 72 51 73 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 44 70 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 43 67 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 44 68 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 32 46 33 48 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 43 67 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 37 59 39 57 / 10 0 0 10
DEMING 42 69 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 40 64 43 65 / 10 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 51 69 51 69 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 46 72 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 49 77 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 46 64 46 65 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 48 73 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 46 68 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 49 69 49 68 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 42 67 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 43 71 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 45 72 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 43 67 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 38 60 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 36 58 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 34 55 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 32 61 33 57 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 40 67 41 64 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 39 67 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 34 59 34 57 / 10 0 0 20
HURLEY 37 62 39 60 / 10 0 0 10
CLIFF 37 66 38 64 / 10 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 36 60 38 58 / 10 0 0 30
FAYWOOD 39 62 42 60 / 10 0 0 10
ANIMAS 42 68 44 66 / 10 0 0 10
HACHITA 41 68 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 69 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 43 62 44 60 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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