978
FXUS64 KEPZ 062352
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
552 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023
ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY, STORM CHANCES SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE
EAST, MAINLY IMPACTING HUDSPETH COUNTY AND THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE BORDERLAND REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MOVING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, WE'RE STARTING TO SEE CU
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE GILA WILDERNESS AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SHOW GUSTY
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CA COAST WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER NM WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND OVER CA. ULTIMATELY, UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE, ALONG WITH PVA IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASE IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS,
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE ACROSS THE REGION ESTABLISHING THE
WARM/MOIST SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND WEST TX... 850MB DEW
POINTS TEMPS OF 9-11C ALONG AND EAST OF THE RGV. LOW/MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE INTRIGUING, BASED ON THE DIRECTIONAL PROFILE. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SW, BACKING TO MAINLY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS, SUGGESTING THAT
SUFFICIENT SHEAR IS AND WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN FACT, SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SHOWS A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PRIOR AND DURING THE THE ONSET OF THE STORMS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN DUE TO THE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN
PLACE OVERLAYING THE OROGRAPHIC AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORM INITIATION BETWEEN THE 12-
1PM TIMEFRAME. WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE, PW
VALUES OF 0.7-0.8 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTION/PROPAGATION TO THE NE/E. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
RESULT, ESPECIALLY WITHIN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS/LOW WATER CROSSINGS
OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. CURRENT 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER
THE SACS IS BETWEEN 1-1.75 INCHES IN MOST OF THE DRAINAGE BASINS.
HENCE THE HEIGHTENED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE, ANY STORMS
OVER THE GILA AND SACS WILL POSE THE THREAT FOR SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WITHIN THE DEEPER UPDRAFTS, ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS.
AS WE TRANSLATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
TIMEFRAME. AN SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
THE MAIN FLOW ALOFT WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN WELL
LINED UP WITH EACH OTHER, INITIATING STORMS AROUND THE 2-4PM
TIMEFRAME OVER CHIHUAHUA WITH A NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION. STORMS
WILL LIKELY START OFF AS BEING MAINLY CELLULAR IN NATURE BEFORE
TAKING ON A MORE LINEAR MODE AS THEY PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST. BY
THEN, A SUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND INTO EL PASO/HUDSPETH/DONA ANA/OTERO
COUNTIES. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A BELT OF MODEST BOUYANCY (1000-
1400 J/KG OF MLCAPE) OVERLAYED WITH 25-30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILE (DP
DEPRESSIONS OF 45-47 DEGREES) AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF
1200-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING OF THE STORMS FOR EL PASO/LAS CRUCES WILL
LIKELY BE BETWEEN 5-8PM.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (THROUGH THE WEEKEND), THE LARGE-
SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH AMERICA. WITH
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE IN AND AROUND THE CA WEST COAST, A DRY
WEST/SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AS SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. AS A RESULT, THE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN STATIC FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER.
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE BACK TO THE EAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EL PASO MAY SEE IT'S
FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENTERING THE EL PASO AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED
STORMS AROUND THE REGIONS, SOME SEVERE. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL QUICKLY
RACE TO THE NORTHEAST. TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS LINE OF
STORMS THROUGH ROUGHLY 02Z, WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AFFECTING
SITES THROUGH ~4Z. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS, LOWERED
VISIBILITY DUE TO DUST, ALONG WITH REDUCTION TO VIS AND LOWERING
OF CIG HEIGHTS DUE TO STORMS. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, TAFS WILL BE AMENDED AS NEEDED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER,
WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVERHEAD, SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PREDOMINATELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. PERIODS OF WETTING RAINS, HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL RESULT FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP. JUST TO
THE WEST OF WHERE THE MOISTURE LIES, DRIER AIR CAN BE OBSERVED
PREDOMINATELY IN THE NM BOOTHEEL. THAT BEING SAID, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS FOR THE BOOTHEEL. DRY LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GILA
WILDERNESS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS AND HUDSPETH COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, DRY WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING BACK TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
AREAWIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 92 67 94 / 80 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 58 85 58 88 / 90 30 20 0
LAS CRUCES 60 91 59 93 / 70 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 87 56 89 / 80 20 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 64 44 67 / 70 40 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 58 87 57 89 / 100 10 0 0
SILVER CITY 51 80 51 81 / 30 0 0 0
DEMING 55 90 54 91 / 40 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 54 87 53 88 / 10 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 89 64 91 / 70 10 0 0
DELL CITY 60 89 56 92 / 60 40 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 61 93 59 94 / 90 20 10 0
LOMA LINDA 58 82 58 85 / 90 20 0 0
FABENS 63 92 62 93 / 80 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 60 87 59 89 / 60 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 88 63 90 / 90 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 57 86 55 89 / 90 10 0 0
HATCH 57 87 55 91 / 70 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 60 90 60 91 / 30 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 60 87 56 89 / 90 20 0 0
MAYHILL 48 76 47 79 / 60 50 10 0
MESCALERO 46 75 46 77 / 60 40 0 0
TIMBERON 45 73 46 76 / 80 40 0 0
WINSTON 48 77 47 79 / 70 10 0 0
HILLSBORO 53 85 53 87 / 70 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 55 86 54 89 / 80 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 48 80 45 82 / 40 0 0 0
HURLEY 50 86 50 87 / 30 0 0 0
CLIFF 44 87 41 89 / 20 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 50 82 50 83 / 20 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 53 84 53 85 / 40 0 0 0
ANIMAS 53 87 52 89 / 10 0 0 0
HACHITA 53 88 54 88 / 20 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 54 87 54 88 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 54 82 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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