357  
FXUS64 KEPZ 221210  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
610 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2024  
 
ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE BORDERLAND, WHICH  
SHOULD CONVEY INTO MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER IN  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO AGAIN  
KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.  
DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER  
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LACK OF A PASSING DISTURBANCE  
WILL LIKELY MEAN NOT AS MANY STORMS. GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
WEEK, THE REGION WILL SEE SOME DRIER AIR MOVE IN. HOWEVER, WE WILL  
KEEP SOME MOISTURE WITH AT LEAST SOME STORMS EXPECTED EACH  
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER AREA MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN AREAS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2024  
 
AN ACTIVE RADAR NIGHT ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AS A VIGOROUS  
DISTURBANCE AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY BOTH SLOWLY TRACKED SOUTH  
THROUGH THE HEART OF THE THE REGION. THAT HAS KEPT A LARGE AREA OF  
WIDESPREAD AND NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS, AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE WILL LINGER INTO  
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DESERTS),  
SIMILAR THE THE ACTIVITY THAT PERSISTED YESTERDAY MORNING OVER  
MORE EASTERN AREAS.  
 
TODAY WE KEEP A LOT OF THE SAME INGREDIENTS WITH PLENTY OF  
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. HOWEVER WE WILL BE LACKING THE UPPER-  
LEVEL IMPULSE WE SAW DROP DOWN ACROSS OUR REGION LATE YESTERDAY  
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD MEAN A LEAST A SLIGHT  
DOWNTICK IN AREAL STORM COVERAGE. LIKE YESTERDAY WE MAY BE A BIT  
LATE ON A LOT OF STORM/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO DELAYED HEATING  
WITH A LOT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, AND LARGE AREAS OF WET GROUND  
SOAKING UP WHAT SUN DOES BREAK THROUGH. BOTTOM LINE IS WE DO  
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM OVER  
THE SACS, BLACKS, AND GILA AREA MOUNTAINS, WITH MORE STORMS  
FORMING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WELL INTO THE EVENING. ALL THESE  
STORMS WILL BE MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LIKE THEY HAVE  
OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AND 50S, WITH PWATS  
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE, IN THE 1.15-1.35" RANGE. THEREFORE, HEAVY  
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAIN A CONCERN.  
 
BEGINNING TUESDAY WE START TO SEE A DOWNWARD TREND IN MOISTURE IN  
OUR ENVIRONMENT, AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SPOOLED TO OUR NORTH  
BEGINS TO RUN OUT. THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST, WITH  
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION, BUT DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR  
WILL BEGIN FLOW IN, AS THE STASH OF MONSOON/PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER  
THE ROCKIES GETS FLUSHED SOMEWHAT TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, THIS WILL  
NOT BE A COMPLETE DRYING OUT, SO WE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF RESIDUAL  
MOISTURE AND THUS, WITH DAILY HEATING WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AT  
LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MOST OF THEM  
FOCUSED OVER AREA MOUNTAINS.  
 
LATER IN THE WEEK, THE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL SHIFT  
WEST, WITH OUR EASTERN ZONES SEEING LOWER RAIN/STORM CHANCES, AND  
OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING REDUCED, BUT BETTER RAIN/STORM CHANCES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 604 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2024  
 
VFR AND TEMPORARY AND ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ANOTHER  
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS, LIGHT IN NATURE, WITH LOW CIGS OF BKN-  
OVC 020 TO 030, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BREAKS IN THE MORE  
WIDESPREAD BKN- OVC CIGS OF 060-080 BY/AFT 16Z. THIS AFTERNOON WE  
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVR AREA MTNS BY  
18Z, WITH LOWLANDS SEEING STORMS LATER, BTWN 20-24Z. EXPECT SOME  
OUTFLOWS WITH VRBL GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KTS. STORMS/SHOWERS EXPECTED  
TO DIMINISH AFT 04Z.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2024  
 
ANOTHER NIGHT LIKE LAST NIGHT, WITH LINGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THAT WILL MEAN ANOTHER  
DAY WITH ABUNDANT EARLY CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND MIN RHS  
IN THE 30%+ RANGE. THIS AFTERNOON WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MEANS VERY MOIST AND  
MODERATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
TOMORROW WE START TO SEE A PATTERN SHIFT THAT WILL MIGRATE THE  
UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT  
IN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION, WITH A RESULTANT DROP IN  
RAIN/STORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO TREND  
LOWER, WITH AFTERNOON MINRH IN THE 15 TO 25% RANGE. HOWEVER WE  
WON'T TOTALLY DRY OUT SO THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST ISOLATE  
MOUNTAIN RAIN/STORMS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 88 70 91 72 / 70 20 20 10  
SIERRA BLANCA 79 61 83 60 / 50 40 50 10  
LAS CRUCES 88 66 91 68 / 50 20 20 20  
ALAMOGORDO 84 60 87 62 / 40 40 30 10  
CLOUDCROFT 60 44 66 46 / 80 50 50 10  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 85 64 88 66 / 60 70 40 20  
SILVER CITY 81 60 83 62 / 70 80 70 40  
DEMING 88 65 91 67 / 40 20 20 30  
LORDSBURG 89 68 91 69 / 30 40 50 40  
WEST EL PASO METRO 86 69 90 71 / 60 20 20 20  
DELL CITY 83 63 87 64 / 70 50 30 10  
FORT HANCOCK 88 66 91 66 / 50 50 50 10  
LOMA LINDA 78 61 82 62 / 60 30 40 10  
FABENS 87 67 90 67 / 60 40 30 10  
SANTA TERESA 85 66 88 68 / 50 20 20 20  
WHITE SANDS HQ 85 66 89 68 / 70 30 40 20  
JORNADA RANGE 85 64 89 65 / 60 30 40 20  
HATCH 88 65 91 66 / 50 40 30 30  
COLUMBUS 88 68 90 69 / 30 30 10 30  
OROGRANDE 82 63 86 63 / 70 20 30 10  
MAYHILL 68 50 75 50 / 60 60 50 10  
MESCALERO 72 49 77 51 / 80 50 50 10  
TIMBERON 69 47 73 49 / 80 40 40 10  
WINSTON 79 54 81 54 / 60 70 60 30  
HILLSBORO 83 61 86 62 / 60 70 60 40  
SPACEPORT 85 61 88 62 / 60 70 40 20  
LAKE ROBERTS 82 55 84 58 / 70 80 70 40  
HURLEY 84 60 86 62 / 50 60 60 30  
CLIFF 93 62 93 63 / 60 70 80 40  
MULE CREEK 86 63 86 65 / 40 50 70 50  
FAYWOOD 83 61 85 63 / 50 60 60 40  
ANIMAS 90 68 92 68 / 20 30 40 40  
HACHITA 88 65 89 67 / 30 30 30 30  
ANTELOPE WELLS 88 65 89 67 / 40 30 40 40  
CLOVERDALE 85 63 86 64 / 30 30 40 30  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
NM...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ401-403-408-409-414>416-  
425-426.  
 

 
 

 
 
FORECASTER...14-BIRD  
 
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