321
FXUS64 KEPZ 291715
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1015 AM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 943 AM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING
EASTERLY BREEZINESS AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING BELOW NORMAL.
- DRY CONDITIONS, GENTLE WARMING, AND LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 943 AM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A PROGRESSIVE
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN KEEPS MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND WITH
WEATHER SYSTEMS TRACKING NORTH OF THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT. FOR TODAY, MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST LATE
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
EAST IN THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BE WINDY AND GUSTS ALONG THE
WEST FACING SLOPES OF LOCAL AREA MOUNTAINS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST EL PASO COUNTY AND
OTHER SIMILAR AREAS IN THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN OPEN LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY MORNING. THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS FOR NO REAL IMPACT OR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LOCALLY. AFTER THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION THE
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES WITH LIGHT
AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LONG RANGE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS DOWN INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A HIGH VARIABILITY BETWEEN MODELS RUN
TO RUN AND BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, RESULTING IN A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, MODELS PROJECT A LOW CHANCE OF LOWLAND RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO OCCUR AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL, RAIN
CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO NEXT FRIDAY. AS HAS BEEN HAPPENING WITH
PREVIOUS WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS MONTH, I SUSPECT THAT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AS SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONVERGE ON A
REALISTIC AND MOSTLY LIKELY A DRIER SOLUTION LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 943 AM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SKC-FEW250. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND
5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS
AROUND TO THE EAST BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z AT ABOUT 8 TO 12 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 943 AM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S.
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR TO FAIR VENTING. LATER THIS EVENING
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST, WHICH WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS BRING IMPROVEMENTS TO MINIMUM RH VALUES TO AROUND 30%. OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (20-30%) IS THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 40 58 41 65 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 32 51 32 61 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 34 55 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 32 57 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 22 41 27 38 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 55 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 34 55 33 53 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 35 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 34 60 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 40 57 41 63 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 32 51 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 38 61 38 69 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 32 49 36 57 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 38 59 37 66 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 37 55 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 37 56 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 29 56 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 32 60 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 37 60 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 35 53 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 22 52 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 24 51 29 49 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 22 44 25 48 / 0 0 0 10
WINSTON 24 54 28 51 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 34 58 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 30 55 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 29 57 29 53 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 32 55 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 28 62 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 28 59 30 55 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 34 53 33 56 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 34 65 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 32 61 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 36 65 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 60 39 57 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...04-LUNDEEN
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