504
FXUS64 KEPZ 232335 AAA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
435 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 433 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
- ISOLATED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WEST
WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING, MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 950 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
AN UL LOW OVER NW AZ WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR
TODAY, BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR NAMELY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A CLAP OF THUNDER. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF I-25 WITH A DRY
SLOT COVERING THE REST OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LOW-END BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A H500 JET PASSES OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND
HUDSPETH COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL.
THIS UL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NE INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERING THE CONUS. UL RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST LEAVING THE CWA WITHIN DRY,
NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS FINALLY
REACHES THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY THURSDAY. UL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE OVER BY FRIDAY IN THE FORM OF A S/W. IMPACTS FROM THIS
INITIAL S/W WILL BE VERY MINOR WITH SOME MILD BREEZES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REACH THEIR PEAK. THANKSGIVING AND BLACK
FRIDAY LOOK RATHER PLEASANT WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE S/W TROUGH'S
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY, LOWERING HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. THE WEAK S/W IS
JUST A SIGNAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO MORE
UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY FRIGID WEATHER AS WE FINISH OUT NOVEMBER
AND ENTER DECEMBER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
ISOLD SHWRS ARE MOVING NELY AND DIMINISHING. GUSTY WLY AND NWLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFT SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 950 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
THE FIRE RISK WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST, IF NOT
ALL, OF THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATED BY SUNSET. A CLAP OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON TOPPING
OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE 35 TO 45 IN THE LOWLANDS
ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY MID-WEEK. VENT
RATES WILL BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD TODAY BUT WILL ONLY RANGE POOR TO
FAIR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 64 39 67 40 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 60 34 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 60 33 63 33 / 20 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 60 34 63 33 / 50 20 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 26 47 23 / 60 20 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 36 61 36 / 30 20 0 0
SILVER CITY 57 31 61 33 / 50 20 0 0
DEMING 63 32 66 34 / 20 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 58 32 63 33 / 40 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 40 66 41 / 10 0 0 0
DELL CITY 65 31 67 32 / 10 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 67 36 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 57 36 59 36 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 65 35 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 61 34 64 35 / 10 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 40 66 40 / 30 20 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 61 31 64 30 / 30 20 0 0
HATCH 65 32 66 31 / 20 20 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 37 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 60 32 62 33 / 20 0 0 0
MAYHILL 57 30 60 26 / 40 20 0 0
MESCALERO 53 27 58 26 / 60 20 0 0
TIMBERON 52 26 56 23 / 40 20 0 0
WINSTON 58 27 59 26 / 30 20 0 0
HILLSBORO 62 35 63 35 / 20 20 0 0
SPACEPORT 60 30 62 29 / 30 20 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 59 26 63 27 / 50 20 0 0
HURLEY 59 30 61 31 / 40 20 0 0
CLIFF 62 27 66 29 / 50 20 0 0
MULE CREEK 58 28 63 30 / 60 20 0 0
FAYWOOD 59 34 61 35 / 30 20 0 0
ANIMAS 60 34 65 33 / 30 0 0 0
HACHITA 60 31 63 32 / 10 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 34 65 33 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 57 37 61 38 / 20 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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