067
FXUS64 KEPZ 301741
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1041 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS, GENTLE WARMING, AND AFTERNOON BREEZES THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
- A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF LOWLAND RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THURSDAY.
- DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN GOING INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
SEVERAL PASSING TROUGHS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK WHICH WILL BRING
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES BUT NOTHING TOO EXTREME AND A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIP WED NIGHT INTO THU. OVERALL THE MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP BUT ARE HAVING ISSUES
WITH THE MIDWEEK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AND SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START REBOUNDING FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO WARM ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES FROM THE HIGHS TODAY. WESTERLY
FLOW GOING INTO TUE AND WED WILL KEEP HIGHS CONSISTENT WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZY PERIODS. LIGHTER WINDS TUE MORNING WITH SOME
DRIER AIR IN PLACE COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS THAT HAVEN'T SEEN A
FREEZE YET TO GET THERE. IT WILL BE CLOSE AROUND LAS CRUCES AND
THE OUTLYING AREAS OF EL PASO.
THE MAIN SYSTEM OF IMPACT WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE WED INTO THU.
MODELS HAD BEEN COMING TOGETHER ON THIS AND TAPPING SOME MODEST
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. MY CONFIDENCE ISN'T TOO HIGH IN THIS
SCENARIO WITHOUT THE TROUGH DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST GFS IS
TRENDING DRIER ALONG WITH IT'S ENSEMBLE MEAN. RIGHT NOW LOWERED
NBM POPS ABOUT 5-10 PERCENT WITH THIS TREND AND WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS SEE IF THIS CONTINUES. ANY PRECIP ON THE LOWLANDS WILL
REMAIN RAIN WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES, WE GO BACK INTO A ZONAL FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZES
ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
P6SM FEW-SCT150-200 SCT-BKN200-250 THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH
SUNSET WITH GUSTS OVER 20KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REMAIN
GENERALLY AOB 12KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
DRY WITH SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE WINDIEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL AND RH'S
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
BUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN QUESTION. VENT RATES
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 42 64 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 34 61 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 36 61 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 36 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 28 37 22 41 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 56 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 54 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 35 63 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 35 61 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 39 62 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 29 63 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 38 67 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 56 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 39 65 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 36 62 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 32 59 23 62 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 33 63 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 39 64 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 33 58 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 32 51 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 30 48 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 26 48 21 50 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 28 51 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 35 58 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 30 57 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 24 53 20 57 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 33 56 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 28 57 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 26 56 21 57 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 33 56 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 35 62 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 36 61 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 64 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 37 57 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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