597
FXUS64 KEPZ 290854
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
254 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 250 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- WINDY WITH NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY, RETURNING AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR VARIATIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH A MODERATE CHANCE FOR A COOL DOWN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS, IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
FEATURING FIRE DANGER AND WIND. THAT WILL BE TRUE FOR TODAY'S
WEATHER AS A S/W TROUGH, LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
WILL SWEEP EAST TODAY WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AROUND NOON. 65KT H500 JET JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND ~995 MB
SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE. IT WON'T
BE WINDY ENOUGH FOR ANY WIND HEADLINES, ALTHOUGH I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED BY A GUST OR TWO JUST OVER 50 MPH ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES
OF AREA MOUNTAINS, BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. IT WILL ALSO LIKELY LOFT SOME DUST THOUGH
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS ANOTHER S/W DASHES
ACROSS NM THIS TIME RIGHT OVER THE CWA. H500 JET WILL BE AROUND 65
KNOTS AGAIN, BUT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPRESS LEE
TROUGHING WITH A BROAD SFC CYCLONE OVER NE NM. THE WEAKER LOW WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY,
BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS.
MONDAY WILL SEE A DOWNTICK IN WIND AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE S/W RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS NM. MODEST JET ENERGY AND WEAK LEE TROUGH WILL FOSTER
SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES, BUT IT WILL BE A NICE BREAK FROM THE WIND
AS A STRONGER JET MAX AND CLOSED LOW TAKES SHAPE OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR TUESDAY. EXIT REGION
OF THE JET WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN NM WITH SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS EASTERN KS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH WINDS ON THE INCREASE. 75TH PERCENTILE MAX WIND GUSTS
PUT MUCH OF THE AREA IN ADVISORY TO NEAR WARNING LEVEL WINDS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING DUST CONCERNS AS WELL AS CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS. THE CENTER OF THE 85 KT H500 JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN NM OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP EAST SLOPE LOCATIONS WINDY
AS WELL AS DRAG A PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY,
WE'RE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE JET BUT WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY
REMAINING. THUS, WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN WINDY THOUGH A BIT LOWER
THAN TUESDAY. 75TH PERCENTILE MAX GUST SHOWS MOST LOCATIONS NEAR
OR JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.
HEADING INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD, A SHARP TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN TO OUR WEST, BUT HOW IT EVOLVES LOOKS VERY DIFFERENT
BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS. THE EURO SENDS OUT A LEAD IMPULSE ON
THURSDAY, DROPPING TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. THIS LEAD IMPULSE IS
ABSENT IN THE GFS, BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NV
BEFORE TREKKING EAST. THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF HOPE FOR PRECIP
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, EVEN WITH THIS LOW, BUT HOW IT EVOLVES WILL
MAKE FOR ABOUT A 5 TO 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN DAYTIME HIGHS BASED
ON THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE WITHIN THE NBM.
GIVEN THE PATTERN, IT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN BREEZY TO
WINDY AS WELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CRITICAL TAF PERIOD. AN
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW SWLY TO WLY WINDS TO
INCREASE AFT 29/16Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS COMMONPLACE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTN. THIS COULD CREATE AREAS OF BLDU WITH
SUBSEQUENT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF
PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE, ALONG WITH IMPACT TO TERMINALS, DID KEEP
VSBY REDUCTIONS OUT OF THE TAF TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT REFINEMENT TO THESE PARAMETERS IN FUTURE UPDATES. WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO APPROACH AWW CRITERIA FOR KELP AROUND LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTN AND PRODUCT ISSUANCE WILL BE FORTHCOMING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..MULTIPLE DAYS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER EXPECTED
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL KEEP US WITHIN A DRY AND
WINDY PATTERN. THE FIRST TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TODAY, WHICH WILL
INCREASE 20-FOOT TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
MIN RH VALUES AROUND 10% WITH 15 TO 25% IN THE MOUNTAINS. A RED
FLAG FIRE WARNING WAS ISSUED WITH ERC VALUES 75 TO 90 PERCENT
COMMON, EXCEPT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GILA WHERE ERCS REMAIN WETTER.
A SECOND TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING 20-FOOT
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH NEARLY EVERY LOCATION WITHIN OUR FIRE
FORECAST AREA DROPPING BELOW 15% HUMIDITY. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. ANOTHER RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE GILA CONSIDERING THE WETTER
FUELS. TEXAS COUNTIES WILL SEE LOWER WINDS, BUT STILL NEAR THE 20
MPH THRESHOLD.
WE SEE A BREAK FROM CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS WINDS
DROP TO AROUND 15 MPH. THIS WILL NEVERTHELESS COMBINE WITH
SINGLE-DIGIT MIN RH VALUES, SO FIRE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED. A TWO-DAY WIND EVENT FOLLOWS THIS BREAK WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE UP
TO AROUND 30 MPH ON TUESDAY AND 25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. MIN RHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 7500 FEET ON BOTH
DAYS, AND SO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 80 52 79 50 / 10 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 74 47 74 44 / 10 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 75 43 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 74 41 75 41 / 10 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 50 32 51 31 / 10 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 44 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 67 38 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 78 41 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 75 38 74 37 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 52 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 77 46 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 82 49 81 47 / 10 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 71 46 71 45 / 10 0 0 0
FABENS 80 49 80 47 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 77 46 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 77 52 76 49 / 10 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 75 41 75 39 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 77 43 78 39 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 79 46 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 74 45 75 43 / 10 0 0 0
MAYHILL 63 39 65 36 / 10 0 0 0
MESCALERO 61 34 63 34 / 10 0 0 0
TIMBERON 60 33 62 32 / 10 0 0 0
WINSTON 65 29 67 29 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 72 39 73 39 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 74 38 76 37 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 66 34 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 70 35 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 73 34 73 32 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 68 36 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 69 39 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 77 39 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 76 39 75 39 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 75 42 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 70 41 70 42 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ-
SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES BLM/GLZ.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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