621
FXUS64 KEPZ 182349
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
449 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 442 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
- RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT,
BECOMING MORE SHOWERY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT,
FOLLOWED BY DAMAGING WINDS.
- ADDITIONAL STEADIER RAIN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH BREEZY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10,000 FEET
FOR MOST OF THE EVENT, FALLING AS LOW AS 8000 FEET THURSDAY
MORNING AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE SCATTERED.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP TO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, AND MAY TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAT IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
A BEAUTIFUL SUNRISE THIS MORNING LIT UP THE HIGH CIRROSTRATUS
DECK THAT HAS SINCE OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH A MOSTLY OPAQUE
OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED
SUBTROPICAL JET WELL AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW THAT IS SITTING JUST
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SONORA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, SPREADING RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE VARIOUS CAMS,
INCLUDING THE 12Z HREF SUITE, CONTINUE TO OFFER UP A WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE NAM, GFS, AND MOST NBM MEMBERS. THE HRRR, FOR
EXAMPLE, BOTH THE 12Z AND 18Z RUN, SPREADS RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA, EXCEPT FOR EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY BETWEEN ABOUT 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT, WHILE THE NAM HAS A MUCH NARROWER BAND MAINLY FOCUSED
FROM ELP TOWARDS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS
EVENTUALLY SPREADING WEST TOWARDS THE GILA WEDNESDAY MORNING. POP
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS LARGELY TILTED TOWARDS A BLEND OF
THE HREF MEMBERS AND MORE RECENT HRRR RUNS, THOUGH THE QPF WAS
TEMPERED QUITE A BIT, CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE.
RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY ON WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL
DEVELOP, AND WEAK INSTABILITY (250-500 J/KG SBCAPE, NOT BAD FOR
NOVEMBER) WILL DEVELOP OVER SW NEW MEXICO, INCLUDING THE GILA
REGION, BY LATE AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) WILL INCREASE TO THE
40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE IN SW NEW MEXICO AS THE UPPER LOW ROLLS INTO
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, BRINGING COLDER AIR ALOFT AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS, WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT, FOLLOWED BY WIND GUSTS. THE
RISK WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE GILA AND DOWN INTO THE BOOTHEEL
REGION, BUT A STRAY STORM COULD TRY AND SNEAK INTO WESTERN LUNA
OR FAR WESTERN SIERRA COUNTY.
OTHERWISE, A BAND OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL KEEP SNOW
LEVELS ABOVE 10,000 FEET ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TO AROUND 8500-9000 FEET IN THE GILA THURSDAY MORNING, AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS INTO A NEGATIVELY-TILTED OPEN TROUGH AND MOVES
TOWARDS THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, AND DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW FILTERS IN. AS A RESULT, ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, AND OCCUR ABOVE ANY POPULATED AREAS.
WORST CASE SCENARIO COULD SEE A SLUSHY HALF INCH OR INCH ON EMORY
PASS ON THURSDAY MORNING.
STORM TOTAL LIQUID QPF (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING) CONTINUES
TO FLUCTUATE, MOSTLY BASED ON TONIGHT'S RAINFALL COVERAGE, BUT
LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES IN THE LOWLANDS NORTH AND
WEST OF EL PASO, TAPERING TO 0.30 TO 0.15 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST OF
ELP. 1 TO 1.50 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE GILA (PERHAPS
PUSHING 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE MOGOLLON MOUNTAINS
(THE HEADWATERS OF THE WEST FORK GILA RIVER), AND AROUND 1 TO
1.25 INCHES IN THE SACRAMENTOS. NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED
GIVEN LOW RIVER LEVELS, A LACK OF SNOWPACK. ALTHOUGH THERE'S A
VERY LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED FLOODING SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS TRY TO
TRAIN IN A FEW SPOTS, OR DROP A BUNCH OF DRAINAGE-CLOGGING HAIL.
OVERALL, THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
NOVEMBER AVERAGE IS ONLY 0.48 INCHES.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY
WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN, AND A FEW WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
COOLER TEMPERATURES (THOUGH NEAR NORMAL IN REALITY) WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES. IT WILL POTENTIALLY
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, WHICH IS USUALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD START TO BE SEEN AT ALL
TERMINALS IN THE COMING HOURS. KELP SHOULD SEE RAIN IN A COUPLE
HOURS BUT THE REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE RAIN LATER TONIGHT
AROUND 05/06Z. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE A SHORT BREAK IN THE MID
MORNING HOURS, BUT VCSH STILL POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHERE SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
WITH HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM
IS SET TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL MAINLY STAY AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FOR
MUCH OF THE PRECIP PERIOD, BUT MAY FALL DOWN TO AROUND 8000-9000
FEET THURSDAY MORNING AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE SCATTERED. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH IN THE GILA REGION AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL BE COMMON, AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AS
WELL. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SET TO BRING MORE PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND, AND MAY TAKE A PATH THAT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW. BREEZY WEST WINDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
MITIGATED BY HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES, WITH MIN RH IN THE 40 TO 60
PERCENT RANGE EVEN IN THE LOWLANDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 71 52 63 41 / 10 70 30 50
SIERRA BLANCA 68 51 61 38 / 0 20 10 30
LAS CRUCES 66 48 57 32 / 10 50 50 70
ALAMOGORDO 66 46 58 32 / 0 70 60 60
CLOUDCROFT 45 34 38 24 / 0 80 80 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 46 55 34 / 10 50 50 80
SILVER CITY 56 39 48 27 / 10 60 70 90
DEMING 67 48 59 33 / 10 70 60 80
LORDSBURG 64 46 54 30 / 20 50 60 70
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 52 61 41 / 10 60 30 50
DELL CITY 70 50 64 34 / 0 20 10 30
FORT HANCOCK 74 53 68 37 / 0 30 20 30
LOMA LINDA 63 47 55 36 / 0 70 40 40
FABENS 71 53 64 37 / 10 60 30 40
SANTA TERESA 67 50 59 37 / 10 60 40 60
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 50 58 37 / 0 60 50 60
JORNADA RANGE 66 48 57 27 / 10 50 50 70
HATCH 68 50 60 29 / 10 50 50 80
COLUMBUS 69 50 61 34 / 10 50 50 80
OROGRANDE 65 49 57 36 / 10 60 50 50
MAYHILL 57 40 50 29 / 0 80 70 50
MESCALERO 56 38 49 27 / 0 80 80 70
TIMBERON 53 39 45 26 / 0 80 80 50
WINSTON 56 36 48 23 / 0 50 70 90
HILLSBORO 62 44 55 31 / 10 60 60 80
SPACEPORT 64 47 56 28 / 10 50 50 80
LAKE ROBERTS 56 35 47 20 / 10 60 70 90
HURLEY 59 40 51 27 / 10 60 60 90
CLIFF 63 42 54 25 / 10 40 70 80
MULE CREEK 58 40 49 21 / 20 50 70 80
FAYWOOD 58 43 50 32 / 10 70 70 90
ANIMAS 66 45 57 33 / 10 40 60 70
HACHITA 66 47 56 32 / 10 60 60 70
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 46 56 30 / 0 60 50 70
CLOVERDALE 60 42 49 34 / 10 50 60 70
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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