026
FXUS64 KEPZ 300507
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1007 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 917 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN TONIGHT, BRINGING EASTERLY BREEZINESS
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
- DRY CONDITIONS, GENTLE WARMING, AND LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF LOWLAND RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 917 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE CWA AND WILL SHIFT WINDS
EASTERLY EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST MTN SLOPES WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST GUSTS, ESPECIALLY THE HUECOS, BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT
DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. NBM POST-FRONTAL
WINDS ARE STILL A BIT TOO LIGHT FOR MY LIKING SUN AM, SO WENT
WITH 75TH %-ILE, WHICH BROUGHT GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH ALONG WEST
SLOPES. TEMPS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE MORNING EAST OF THE RGV.
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY MON,
RESULTING IN MODESTLY BREEZY WEST WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR US FROM THIS SYSTEM AS PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN TO THE NORTH BEFORE THE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH HANGS BACK INTO MON
NIGHT, BUT AGAIN, IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OTHER THAN
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING WHAT THE SYSTEM
DOES WHEN IT REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WED. THE LREF
CONSENSUS (MOST-LIKELY SCENARIO) NOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM REMAINING
IN THE MAIN FLOW AND PUSHING THROUGH HERE THU/FRI WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND SPEED AMONG THE MODELS. PRECIP CHANCES
HAVE INCREASED IN THE NBM AS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS SCOOPED
UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON THU. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (LESS-
LIKELY SCENARIO) STILL HAVE A LOBE OF ENERGY CUTTING OFF AND KIND
OF RETROGRADING OFF THE SOCAL COAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK, WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH PRECIP WE'LL GET AND HOW
MUCH COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THROUGH LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE LOWLANDS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ONLY RAIN WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MTNS ON THU. DRY, NW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL AFTER SUN,
FOLLOWED BY A COOLDOWN LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 917 PM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT
E-SE EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH SOME GUSTINESS
UP TO 20KTS, MAINLY FOR KELP. WINDS RELAX A BIT DURING THE DAY.
OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD, SKC EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 943 AM MST SAT NOV 29 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S.
LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO POOR TO FAIR VENTING. LATER THIS EVENING
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST, WHICH WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS BRING IMPROVEMENTS TO MINIMUM RH VALUES TO AROUND 30%. OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (20-30%) IS THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 60 41 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 51 33 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 56 34 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 57 36 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 27 40 22 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 35 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 55 34 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 61 35 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 60 34 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 58 42 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 52 27 66 29 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 60 38 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 37 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 60 38 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 57 36 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 57 41 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 57 33 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 60 32 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 61 39 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 55 33 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 53 32 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 52 30 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 46 26 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 55 29 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 59 35 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 56 30 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 57 30 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 56 33 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 63 32 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 60 32 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 54 35 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 66 37 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 61 35 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 67 39 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 61 40 58 39 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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