215  
FXUS64 KEPZ 202128  
AFDEPZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
328 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND WILL  
FUEL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE  
SAME PERIOD WILL LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY THE MOUNTAINS.  
THE UPPER HIGH RECEDES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY,  
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
DEVELOPING ALL AREAS. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE  
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY, AGAIN LIMITING THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY THE  
MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF OVER ARIZONA FOR NEXT  
WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST  
OF DEMING.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MODEST DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S HAVE ALLOWED SOME THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TPW PRODUCT SHOWING PWS OF .8 - .9  
INCHES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER UPPER HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA WITH  
RIDGE BACK SOUTHWEST ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO IS LIMITING  
CONVECTION TO MOSTLY THE MOUNTAINS. MORNING EPZ SOUNDING SHOWING  
SEVERAL SMALL SUBSIDENCE CAPS JUST ABOVE AND BELOW 500 MB, SO  
LOWLANDS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO FORM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM OROGRAPHIC STORMS COULD HELP BEAT THE CAPS  
OVER THE LOWLANDS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW UPPER HIGH REFORMING OVER  
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY SO MUCH THE SAME; DECENT  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VERSUS UPPER CAP/SUBSIDENCE=MAINLY ISOLATED  
OROGRAPHIC THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING  
UPPER HIGH TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO SE UTAH. THIS WILL RESULT  
IN N/NE FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. AT THE SURFACE BACK  
DOOR COOL FRONT WILL ENTER THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SECOND  
PUSH AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEWPOINTS  
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S WHILE PWS WILL INCREASE TO  
1.1-1.3 INCHES MONDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A BIT HIGHER TUESDAY. !.3  
INCHES IS 140% OF NORMAL. SO EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE  
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ALWAYS WORRIED ABOUT  
STABILIZING BEHIND COOL FRONT BUT GFS SHOWING GOOD LI/CAPE NUMBERS  
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON BEFORE STABILIZING SOME TUESDAY EVENING.  
BOTTOM LINE...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INCREASED. TEMPERATURE  
FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY AS TUESDAY HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT  
OF THE 80S WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND FROPA. AND I COULD EVEN SEE  
HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR THE LOWLANDS (MOS HIGHS ARE MOSTLY MID/UPPER  
80S).  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...N/NE FLOW BEGINS PULLING IN DRIER  
CONTINENTAL AIR, BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS WILL  
SINK BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S WHILE PWS DROP JUST BELOW AN INCH.  
MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM THIS PERIOD WILL SEE LIMITED OROGRAPHIC  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW UPPER HIGH RECEDING  
BACK OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA, GIVING OUR AREA A SOLID  
NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL INCREASE RECYCLED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA  
SO EXPECT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA WIDE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z-22/00Z
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPORARY  
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO POSSIBLE TSRA. SKIES FEW-SCT100  
SCT250 THROUGH OUT PERIOD WITH LOWER CEILINGS (BKN070CB) NEAR TSRA.  
WINDS GENERALLY AOB 12KT. CONFIDENCE FOR VCTS REMAINS LOW FOR ALL  
TERMINALS, AS CB COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO AREA  
MOUNTAINS.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
LOW LEVELS HAVE DRIED A BIT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS, THUS LIMITING THE  
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND LIKELY SUNDAY AS WELL.  
WHILE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP, THEY WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN OF THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS  
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS  
ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY. IN ADDITION  
LIGHTER TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAIR TO POOR VENT CATEGORIES  
FOR MOST AREAS.  
 
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL NOT  
ONLY ALLOW FOR IMPROVED VENTILLATION, BUT A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL  
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIP  
AS STORM CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEK FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES  
WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER WITH READINGS AT OR EVEN A BIT BELOW  
NORMAL TO START THE NEW WEEK.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
EL PASO 77 102 75 93 / 10 10 20 30  
SIERRA BLANCA 69 95 65 88 / 10 10 20 20  
LAS CRUCES 71 100 69 92 / 10 10 20 30  
ALAMOGORDO 71 100 67 92 / 20 20 30 50  
CLOUDCROFT 51 79 52 69 / 30 50 50 70  
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 74 99 70 92 / 20 20 20 50  
SILVER CITY 64 94 63 88 / 20 30 20 70  
DEMING 70 100 69 94 / 10 10 20 30  
LORDSBURG 69 99 69 95 / 10 10 20 30  
WEST EL PASO METRO 78 102 75 93 / 10 10 20 30  
DELL CITY 73 103 70 93 / 20 10 30 20  
FORT HANCOCK 76 104 73 96 / 10 10 20 20  
LOMA LINDA 71 95 68 87 / 20 20 30 30  
FABENS 76 102 73 94 / 10 10 20 20  
SANTA TERESA 74 100 70 92 / 10 10 20 30  
WHITE SANDS HQ 76 100 73 92 / 20 20 30 40  
JORNADA RANGE 71 100 68 92 / 10 10 20 40  
HATCH 72 102 69 94 / 10 10 20 40  
COLUMBUS 74 101 73 95 / 10 10 20 30  
OROGRANDE 73 99 69 91 / 20 20 30 40  
MAYHILL 56 87 54 77 / 20 50 50 70  
MESCALERO 55 88 53 78 / 30 50 50 70  
TIMBERON 53 85 52 76 / 30 50 40 70  
WINSTON 58 93 54 86 / 20 30 30 70  
HILLSBORO 67 99 63 92 / 20 30 30 60  
SPACEPORT 69 99 66 92 / 10 20 20 50  
LAKE ROBERTS 55 95 53 89 / 20 30 30 70  
HURLEY 63 96 61 90 / 20 20 30 60  
CLIFF 60 100 58 93 / 20 20 20 60  
MULE CREEK 59 97 58 92 / 10 10 20 60  
FAYWOOD 66 96 65 89 / 20 20 30 60  
ANIMAS 69 100 67 97 / 0 10 20 30  
HACHITA 68 100 67 95 / 10 10 20 30  
ANTELOPE WELLS 68 98 67 94 / 10 10 20 30  
CLOVERDALE 64 92 63 89 / 10 10 20 40  
 

 
   
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NM...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
HEFNER/LANEY  
 
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