219
FXUS64 KEPZ 050440
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1040 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1029 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DECREASING SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THEN BACK UP MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
- MOISTURE SLOWLY RECOVERS ON SUNDAY, BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY WEST
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
THE DRYING TREND WILL BECOME VERY APPARENT AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN AZ SWEEPS THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, CUTTING OFF OUR
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SUPPLY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY, LEADING TO LOWER TDS AND REDUCED INSTABILITY. AS
THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER NM, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BECOME VERY LIMITED, MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. A
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO
INVIGORATE LIFT WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW, ALLOWING ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS TO INITIATE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTS. 500MB
TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM, HOWEVER, HOVERING AROUND -5C. STORMS
WILL STRUGGLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND WHAT ONES DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY
WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES, MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS CAN EXPECT TO SEE
TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS. EXPECT HIGHS IN EL PASO TO REACH AROUND 100F
TO 102F.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
SUNDAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL REMAIN VERY LOW, PRIMARILY FAVORING TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SACRAMENTO MTS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT FOR THE EL PASO METRO
AND SURROUNDING LOWLANDS, POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO 102F IN SOME
AREAS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE AZ/NM BORDER ON
MONDAY. THIS SUBTLE SHIFT MAY ALLOW FOR A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WHILE NOT
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE, ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY SOME EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S FOR THE LOWLANDS. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
SHIFT, MID-LEVEL EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING IN A BIT MORE MOISTURE. THIS PATTERN, WHILE NOT
IDEAL FOR EXTENSIVE MONSOON ACTIVITY, COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY BUT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY TO TYPICAL AFTN BREEZES
AFT 05/18Z WITH GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KTS. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL FORCE WINDS MORE NLY TO ELY AT KELP AND KTCS. ISOLD
TSTMS IN THE AFTN WILL STAY LCL TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH
CENTRL MTS. AFTN GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFT SUNSET, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VRB.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE
IN MIN RH VALUES, WITH MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS FALLING BELOW 15% FOR
TOMORROW AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL ALL BUT DISAPPEAR
EXCEPT ACROSS THE BOOTHEEL. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, HOWEVER, TOPPING
OUT AROUND 10 MPH. AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY, MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE
AGAIN LEADING TO SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LOWLAND STORMS. RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
VENT CATEGORIES WILL RANGE FAIR TO VERY GOOD EACH AFTERNOON,
LARGELY LIMITED BY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 76 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 67 94 68 92 / 0 0 0 20
LAS CRUCES 68 99 70 98 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 67 100 69 97 / 0 0 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 52 79 52 74 / 0 20 20 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 97 70 98 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 61 91 64 92 / 0 10 10 30
DEMING 68 100 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 66 96 68 100 / 0 10 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 73 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 68 100 70 95 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 72 102 73 100 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 67 94 69 92 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 71 101 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 71 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 74 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 20
JORNADA RANGE 66 99 68 99 / 0 0 0 20
HATCH 67 101 68 102 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 74 99 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 67 98 70 97 / 0 0 0 20
MAYHILL 59 88 57 84 / 0 20 20 50
MESCALERO 57 89 58 85 / 0 20 20 50
TIMBERON 56 86 57 82 / 0 20 20 40
WINSTON 57 89 58 89 / 0 10 10 30
HILLSBORO 64 97 66 97 / 0 10 10 20
SPACEPORT 64 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 56 92 59 93 / 0 10 10 40
HURLEY 63 94 64 95 / 0 10 10 20
CLIFF 62 97 65 100 / 0 10 10 20
MULE CREEK 60 93 63 95 / 0 10 10 20
FAYWOOD 65 93 66 95 / 0 10 0 20
ANIMAS 66 96 68 98 / 10 10 10 20
HACHITA 66 95 68 98 / 10 10 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 95 68 97 / 30 20 20 20
CLOVERDALE 63 90 66 93 / 30 20 20 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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