055
FXUS64 KEPZ 202350
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
450 PM MST THU FEB 20 2020
AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
GENLY VFR WITH INCREASING BKN/OVC250 AND ABOVE. ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SACRAMENTO MTNS...BKN/OVC030 TOPS 080 WITH OCNL 5SM
-DZ/-FZDZ. THESE CONDS WILL SPREAD WEST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING,
REACHING THE FRANKLIN/SAN ANDRES MTN RANGES BY AROUND 05Z AND
THEN SPREADING TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 10-12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST THU FEB 20 2020
SYNOPSIS
WE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS AND
CHILLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND TODAY'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. LOW
CLOUDS WILL FORM AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT AND REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE NEXT PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES TOMORROW. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA
MAY SEE LIGHT DRIZZLE OR OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES ON FRIDAY BUT THE
MAIN PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN LATE DAY
FRIDAY OVER WESTERN AREAS, AND THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND SATURDAY, GIVING MOST OF THE REGION RAIN CHANCES TO
START THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE STORM TO MAKE FOR
VERY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. WE COULD EVEN SEE AN FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY WEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP
IN THE COOL THE REGION TUESDAY, BUT THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG WEST SLOPES OF THE FRANKLINS, ORGANS, AND HUECOS, BUT WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 8 PM MST. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL
STILL REMAIN ON THE MILDLY BREEZY SIDE AT TIMES. IN WAKE OF THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CALMER, BUT COOL FRIDAY AS THE HEART OF
THE COOL AIRMASS BEHIND THIS BACKDOOR FRONT SETTLES IN (IF ONLY FOR
A BRIEF TIME). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST
LOCATIONS, AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH LOWERING AND THICKENING LOW
TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 06-12Z. PATCHY AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS THICK LOWER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDAY HOURS FRIDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT THE START OF PROLIFIC MOISTURE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY. CONSEQUENTLY, CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE IN ADDITION TO A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN HIDALGO AND GRANT
COUNTIES AROUND 00Z SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE TIME WHEN WE START TO SEE INCREASING
MOISTURE, DYNAMICS, AND INSTABILITY ALL COME TOGETHER TO ELEVATE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER WESTERN AREAS AS THE NEXT PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING SNOW LEVELS TO WELL
ABOVE ALL POPULATE AREAS OF THE GILA REGION, AS WELL AS THE REST
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FOR SATURDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OPEN A BIT AND LIFT NE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
AREA-WIDE PRECIPITATION WILL BE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-
DAY SUNDAY WE WILL SEE INCREASE AIRMASS INSTABILITY AS THE CORE OF
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING FOR OUR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE FOOTPRINT OF QPF LOOKS TO BRING
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO OUR NW, N, AND NE AREAS. THE FAR WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM LOWLANDS LOOK TO GET THE LEAST.
THUS WE ALSO HAVE OUR POP FIELDS, THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
EVENT, REFLECT A NW TO SW DECREASING PATTERN. VERY GOOD CHANCES
OVER THE GILA. TO SLIGHT CHANCES OVER EL PASO AND SE.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WE SEE THE STORM SYSTEM CROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN RAPIDLY FROM THE W AND NW. ALL PCPN WILL END. SUNDAY'S WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY, GUSTY, AND LIKELY WINDY AS WE SEE TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS DUE TO LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS. WIND SPEEDS
APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LIMITS...BUT WE MAY NEED ONE FOR
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAIN AREA.
FOR NEXT WEEK WE SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY NW TO W FLOW
AND A WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE DIVERTING THE STORM TRACK NORTH AND
EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN TUESDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES A
BIT, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
A FEW MILD BREEZES WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HIDALGO COUNTY, INCLUDING LORDSBURG, HOWEVER, THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE COOL TEMPERATURES (10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE)
AND THICK CLOUD COVER. DRIZZLE MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDAY HOURS. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL STIFLE MIXING HEIGHTS AND RESULT
IN POOR VENTILATION. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
WILL ADVECT PROLIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING, COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, AND TERRAIN INDUCED VERTICAL MOTION WILL RESULT
IN A HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE GILA WILDERNESS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UP TO 0.75-1.0" OF RAIN POSSIBLE. MINOR AREAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST APPROACHING EL PASO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES AS THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT STAYS TO THE WEST. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IN
ADDITION, MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 10KFT
FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION.
A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED IN ADDITIONS TO HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON SUNDAY BUT MAINLY DRY WITH CLEARING AND BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, VENT
RATES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT AREA WIDE. A MAINLY DRY PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
MIN RH'S WILL BE ABOVE 30% THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AN AVERAGE OF 25-
35% ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE RAPIDLY EXITS THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING
TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH MIN RH'S FALLING INTO THE 15-25%
RANGE.
35-DELIZIO
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 38 52 44 64 / 0 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 32 48 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 37 50 40 60 / 0 10 20 30
ALAMOGORDO 34 51 39 61 / 10 10 10 30
CLOUDCROFT 26 37 32 44 / 10 10 10 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 48 41 56 / 0 10 30 70
SILVER CITY 32 47 40 49 / 10 20 60 80
DEMING 37 49 39 58 / 0 10 30 50
LORDSBURG 36 50 41 55 / 0 20 60 80
WEST EL PASO METRO 38 52 45 64 / 0 10 0 10
DELL CITY 33 49 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 35 55 40 72 / 0 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 31 47 41 61 / 0 10 0 0
FABENS 37 54 43 69 / 0 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 36 50 41 63 / 0 10 10 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 35 50 44 62 / 10 10 20 30
JORNADA RANGE 34 48 39 59 / 10 10 20 40
HATCH 36 50 39 59 / 10 10 30 50
COLUMBUS 37 51 43 61 / 0 10 20 30
OROGRANDE 33 49 39 62 / 10 10 10 20
MAYHILL 24 49 37 58 / 0 10 0 30
MESCALERO 27 45 34 52 / 10 10 10 50
TIMBERON 27 41 32 52 / 10 10 10 30
WINSTON 28 47 39 50 / 0 10 30 80
HILLSBORO 30 49 37 57 / 0 10 40 70
SPACEPORT 31 48 37 57 / 10 10 30 50
LAKE ROBERTS 28 50 38 49 / 10 20 60 90
HURLEY 33 47 38 52 / 10 10 60 80
CLIFF 32 57 39 55 / 0 20 50 90
MULE CREEK 29 53 42 49 / 0 10 50 90
FAYWOOD 32 47 39 53 / 0 10 50 70
ANIMAS 37 52 41 61 / 0 20 50 60
HACHITA 35 50 38 59 / 0 10 30 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 36 54 41 65 / 0 10 20 40
CLOVERDALE 35 50 44 58 / 0 10 50 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ417.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ411.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ420.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ418.
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