405
FXUS64 KEPZ 241708
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1008 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1005 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
- DRY WEATHER, WITH FEW CLOUDS, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TODAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK,
INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.
- WE WILL SEE A COOLING TREND STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
OUR SYSTEM FROM YESTERDAY IS OVER THE OK PANHANDLE, CONTINUING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN
PLACES US WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WILL
MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS REACHING CENTRAL NM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES, CHILLY MORNINGS, ALONG
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THANKSGIVING'S WEATHER
LOOKS PERFECT.
A WEAK S/W TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY WITH A MINOR
UPTICK IN WINDS, BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BRING LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
TO THE WEATHER. IT DOES START OUR TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN THOUGH AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO CARVE OUT OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. LIKEWISE FOR SATURDAY, IT DOES NOT BRING MUCH
IMPACT TO OUR WEATHER, BUT BY SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES DO EMERGE INTO
THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND EARLIER RUNS OF THE EURO DEPICT A STOUT
TROUGH BRINGING RAIN AND WIND, BUT THE LATEST RUN OF THE EURO HAS
SLOWED THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY, COLDER AIR WILL
BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. THERE IS A RATHER
STRONG SIGNAL (>75% CHANCE) WE WILL GET AT LEAST A TASTE OF IT,
BUT HOW MUCH AND WHEN REMAINS YET TO BE SEEN. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK IS RATHER UNSETTLED AND
LIKEWISE RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE NBM'S BROAD 20-30% POPS FOR SUNDAY
SEEM QUITE REASONABLE AS A RESULT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD THOUGH TYPICALLY FAVORING A
WESTERLY DIRECTION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
THERE ARE MINIMAL TO NO FIRE CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
EACH DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OFF SEASONAL BUT WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL BY THIS
WEEKEND. MORNINGS WILL BE CHILLY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
RECOVERIES. AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS WILL ONLY DROP TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S WHILE WINDS STAY LIGHT. VENTING WILL RANGE POOR TO FAIR,
IMPROVING TO FAIR TO GOOD BY THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO SOME INCREASE
IN WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 42 67 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 36 63 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 64 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 35 63 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 26 47 23 45 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 62 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 33 61 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 34 67 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 33 62 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 42 65 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 32 68 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 39 70 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 60 37 58 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 38 68 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 37 65 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 42 65 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 31 64 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 34 67 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 39 67 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 34 62 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 32 60 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 29 57 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 27 56 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 28 59 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 37 62 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 31 62 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 28 62 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 31 62 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 30 66 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 29 63 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 36 61 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 35 65 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 33 64 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 65 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 38 62 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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