935
FXUS64 KEPZ 110459
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
959 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 918 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING, WITH TEENS AND
20S IN THE LOWLANDS. WIND CHILLS APPROACHING 10 DEGREES.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A
GRADUAL WARM-UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- SOME CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR HUDSPETH COUNTY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 918 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR
FOR MOST OF THE CWA AS THE COLD AIRMASS SETTLES IN. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STAY TIGHT OUT WEST INTO THE DAY ON SUN WHILE SFC
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN. CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY E WINDS WILL RESULT IN FRIGID WIND
CHILLS AROUND 10 DEGREES IN SW NM EARLY SUN AM. THE COLD WX
ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME ZONES, BUT IS ONLY FOR
SUN AM, NOT CONTINUING INTO MON AM. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS WELL
INTO THE TEENS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF EL PASO WITH SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF SINGLE DIGIT APPARENT TEMPS IN LOW-LYING AREAS. AIR
TEMPS DIP INTO THE LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
DURING THE DAY ON SUN, THE 850MB FLOW NEAR 30KTS KEEPS WESTERN
AREAS BREEZY TO WINDY WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH FORECAST IN HIDALGO
AND S GRANT COUNTIES. BLOWING DUST IS A CONCERN FOR THE LORDSBURG
PLAYA IF THE SOILS HAVE DRIED SINCE THE RECENT RAINFALL ON WED.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF DEMING.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS FORECAST SUN NIGHT WITH SUBTLE WARMING
COMPARED TO TONIGHT AS THE COLD AIRMASS MODERATES. A WEAK UPPER
LOW OVER THE BAJA IS THE NEXT FEATURE TO MONITOR AS IT SCOOPS UP
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MON/TUE. THE LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE
SOUTH MON NIGHT, PROVIDING INCREASED CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY FOR HUDSPETH MON PM-TUE AM. PRECIP WILL FALL AS
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN IN HUDSPETH, BUT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN, NOT
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE (NBM 90TH HAS ONLY T-1" FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS). THE SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ON TUE.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS QUIET AS REX BLOCKING SETS UP OVER
THE WEST COAST. OUR TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TUE ONWARD. LATE IN THE WEEK, GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THE LOCATION OF THE REX BLOCK WILL BE KEY IN
DETERMINING HOW FAR WEST THE COLD AIR REACHES, BUT WE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST SLIGHT COOLING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP CHANCES ARE VERY
LOW WITH BIG CHANGES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK
REGARDING THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 918 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHER THAN
FEW-SCT250, SKC EXPECTED. E-NE WINDS PERSIST, STAYING MOSTLY AOB
10KTS. WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT SUN AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR KDMN
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. GUSTS TO 25KTS ARE
FORECAST FOR KDMN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
20KTS FOR KELP. WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WE WILL REMAIN IN A
COOL, EASTERLY SURFACE WIND PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
AFTER MONDAY. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER HUDSPETH
COUNTY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, THE FIRE ZONES SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
WINDS BREEZY WINDS ON SUNDAY AT 10-20 MPH, BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MIN HUMIDITIES REMAIN A BIT
ELEVATED DUE TO THE COOL AIRMASS.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 18-25% THROUGH FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS 20-35% THROUGH
FRIDAY. VENT RATES FAIR-GOOD SUNDAY, BECOMING MOSTLY POOR MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 26 55 31 56 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 22 50 29 50 / 0 0 0 20
LAS CRUCES 22 51 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 18 51 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 17 35 18 40 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 24 49 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 22 46 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 23 52 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 22 49 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 29 54 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 17 53 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 21 56 29 55 / 0 0 0 20
LOMA LINDA 25 48 29 49 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 23 56 30 55 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 23 52 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 25 53 29 54 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 17 52 20 54 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 19 54 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 25 52 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 22 53 25 52 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 18 44 20 52 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 19 47 20 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 16 43 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 14 44 16 50 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 23 48 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 17 51 19 53 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 16 46 19 52 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 22 48 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 18 54 21 57 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 20 51 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 26 47 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 24 49 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 21 48 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 22 50 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 28 45 31 48 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR LOWLANDS OF THE
BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHWEST
DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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