072
FXUS64 KEPZ 152345
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
545 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 539 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN OF GUSTY WINDS, THIS
TIME FROM THE EAST, WITH A FEW GUSTS REACHING 40 TO 45 MPH
ALONG WEST-FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE ON MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SHARPLY WARMER FROM TUESDAY, REACHING
20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS IN
THE 90S WILL BE COMMON IN THE LOWLANDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS CLEARED THE AREA, BUT WE REMAIN IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH ENHANCED FLOW JUST ALOFT. AS A RESULT W
TO WNW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST
GUSTS EAST OF AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES AND UP IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AS WELL.
WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE TROUGH
BEGINS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT, WEAKENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE LAS CRUCES-EL PASO CORRIDOR. IT'LL STILL
BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH, BUT WELL OFF THE HIGH GUSTS
FOR THE DAY.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AROUND
9 PM, THEN REACHING EL PASO AROUND 11 PM. EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH 35 TO 40 MPH IN PARTS OF WEST EL PASO IN THE
PREDAWN TO MID-MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME DUST GETTING
LOFTED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AND SOME HAZY DUST CAN BE
EXPECTED AROUND HERE TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT
AND WEAKEN AT THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO TOP OUT IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER-60S TOMORROW AROUND EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES.
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY, AS A BROAD AND HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE (FOR MARCH) CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO BASIN AND EXPANDS. WINDS AND PRECIP ARE OF NO CONCERN
THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO EXTREME LEVELS
FOR MARCH, POSSIBLY THREATENING TO BREAK MONTHLY RECORDS. EL PASO
WILL LIKELY BREAK THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON THURSDAY, AND STAY THERE
THOUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. A WEAK EASTERLY PUSH COULD TAKE THE EDGE
OFF THINGS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE LAYS OVER US AND BEGINS TO
WEAKEN.
RECORD HIGHS AT EL PASO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THE CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST:
WED 3/17 -- 87 (1887) FCST: 87
THU 3/18 -- 91 (1907) FCST: 91
FRI 3/19 -- 92 (1907) FCST: 93
SAT 3/20 -- 93 (1907) FCST: 94
SUN 3/21 -- 89 (2017) FCST: 94
THE ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD HIGH IS 93, LAST SET IN 2017 (ALSO
REACHED IN 1907).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT
WILL BE ON THE DOWNTREND. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING IN FROM THE
GREAT PLAINS WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WEST, QUICKLY TO THE
NORTH AND THEN AN EAST WIND WITH SOME MARGINAL BREEZINESS TONIGHT
WITH THE FRONT. KTCS WILL FEATURE MORE OF A NORTHERLY WIND WITH
THE FRONT WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME EXTRA GUSTINESS DUE TO FUNNELING
OF THE WINDS AT THAT SITE. HZ MAY BE SEEN AT KELP AND KLRU WITH
THE FRONT DUE TO SOME DUST BEING SHOVED IN WITH THE FRONT. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
DESPITE GUSTY WINDS AND DIMINISHING RH VALUES, FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS HAVE SO FAR PROVEN MARGINAL IN MUCH OF SW NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF THE BLACK RANGE AND THEN EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE, WITH INTENSITY SLOWLY DIMINISHING.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT,
STALLING OUT NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON MONDAY MORNING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT HIGHS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY IN THE GILA AND BOOTHEEL REGIONS.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE FOUND NEAR AND EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE.
A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WILL BRING SHARPLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING MARCH RECORDS, WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DIP BELOW
5 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE WEEK. WINDS, HOWEVER, WILL BE LIGHT, SO
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ENHANCED DRYING OF FUELS, PUTTING US IN A
BAD POSITION LATER IN THE MONTH AS WE'RE BOUND TO SEE SOME WINDY
DAYS EVENTUALLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 42 66 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 34 60 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 39 64 38 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 35 64 35 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 26 45 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 44 68 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 40 68 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 41 70 39 80 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 41 73 39 82 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 44 66 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 32 60 27 80 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 38 70 38 83 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 32 59 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 41 68 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 40 65 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 65 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 33 65 31 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 38 70 35 82 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 44 70 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 35 62 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 21 59 31 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 27 56 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 24 52 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 34 68 35 77 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 42 70 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 37 66 36 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 31 70 24 78 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 37 67 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 37 75 34 84 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 34 72 28 80 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 39 66 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 44 75 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 72 41 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 41 74 40 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 43 73 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TEXAS FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY- TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE
056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS
AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS/GILA NF/APACHE NF/GLZ.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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