851
FXUS64 KEPZ 231139
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
539 AM MDT SAT OCT 23 2021
AVIATION
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL OF THE
TAF SITES WITH CIG FEW110-BKN250 SKC. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS THROUGH MID DAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KTS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THEREAFTER WITH THE FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. LLWS AT ABOUT 2000 FEET AGL MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM
06Z TO 12Z AT KELP.
PREV DISCUSSION...311 AM MDT SAT OCT 23 2021
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
THE SEASONAL NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY AND WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WEAK SYSTEM IS
CAUSING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF EL PASO,
HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR ZERO FOR THOSE AREAS. AS THE
SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE REGION REMAINS IN A STEADY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
DRY, WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. EXPECT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND SPEED INCREASES WILL BE AIDED BY A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER SOUTH
EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONGER ALONG EAST FACING
SLOPES AND THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS AND PASSES.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH 70S MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL BE VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS PUSHED ALONG BY THE WESTERLY FLOW. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL LINGER ALONG EAST SLOPES OF LOCAL MOUNTAINS
TILL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED JET STREAM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, THE ACTIVE
JET STREAM WON'T OFFER ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
FORECAST AREA, IT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES AROUND THE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS AND OCCASIONAL BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE TRANSITION DAYS,
REMAINING RELATIVELY QUIET. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH (THE FEATURE THAT WILL BRING USE BREEZY WINDS IN
THE SHORT TERM), A FLATTENED OUT RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. SUNDAY WILL BE BEAUTIFUL WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN THE LOWLANDS. ON MONDAY,
RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE. THIS WILL PUT THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WITH PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS TO SURGE NORTH UP THE SPINE OF THE
ROCKIES AT 850MB. THIS COULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THE
SEASONAL NORMAL.
OUR FOCUS TURNS TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING
IMPACTS TO THE BORDERLAND REGION ON TUESDAY. A MATURE MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN RETROGRADING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THE
PAST FEW DAYS WILL FINALLY MOVE ON SHORE DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. AS IT TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN US, THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS WE'VE MOVED
CLOSER TO THIS SPECIFIC TIMEFRAME, THE TWO GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS (GFS/ECMWF) CONTINUE TO SHOW GRADUAL TRENDS WITH AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER, DISCREPANCIES ARISE WITH REGARD TO TIMING. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A FASTER PROGRESSION WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF (GFS IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS DUE TO THE
TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
DAY). TAKING A LOOK AT THE WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS, ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND THE CLUSTER IT FELL INTO SEEMED TO BE IN
LINE WITH THE TOTAL MEAN BETWEEN ALL CLUSTERS. THAT BEING SAID, I
LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND BUMPED THE WIND FIELDS DOWN A FEW
KNOTS FROM THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE. EVEN THOUGH I LEANED CLOSER
TOWARD THE ECMWF (WEAKER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS), WINDS COULD COME
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS. REGARDLESS,
BREEZY TO LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA, A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GILA, WERE THE MOST
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PLACED.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEPART ON WEDNESDAY AND IN RESPONSE,
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S LOWLANDS
WITH 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS PICK UP
INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE SATURDAY, AND REMAIN LIGHT SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE BORDERLAND. WINDS RELAX THEREAFTER TO END THE WEEK WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. VENT RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT SATURDAY AND
TUESDAY, AND GOOD ON AVERAGE THE REMAINING DAYS IN-BETWEEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 84 57 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 79 51 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 81 48 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 81 50 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 58 38 57 40 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 80 49 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 69 46 69 48 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 81 48 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 78 48 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 84 56 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 84 51 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 86 52 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 76 51 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 84 54 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 81 49 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 81 56 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 79 50 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 81 49 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 81 51 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 81 49 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 70 45 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 69 43 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 67 41 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 72 38 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 76 48 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 79 46 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 69 40 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 73 43 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 78 38 77 40 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 71 44 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 73 47 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 80 47 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 79 48 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 78 48 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 73 47 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
04-LUNDEEN/38/04
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page