852
FXUS64 KEPZ 101658
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1058 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1024 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025
- DRIER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
- REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL BE FAVORED IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WITH
FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY,
THEN COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025
TROPICAL DISTURBANCES PRISCILLA AND RAYMOND ARE CURRENTLY SPINNING
IN THE PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST AS A BURLY CLOSED LOW FLIRTS WITH
THE PAC NW. AS WE GO INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, MOISTURE WILL
BECOME ENTRAINED BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW GENERATED BY THE PACNW LOW,
ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED SURGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A 1.10 IN PWAT THIS
MORNING, A VALUE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE DAILY MAX OF 1.16 IN,
WHICH PAINTS A SOLID PICTURE OF THE CONDITIONS TO COME AS WE MOVE
INTO SATURDAY. REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA WILL GET ADVECTED INTO
SOUTHWEST NM, BRINGING LATE SATURDAY PWATS AT EPZ TO A RECORD-
BREAKING 1.34 IN. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE THEN BECOMES EXACTLY HOW
CONVECTIVE SATURDAY'S ROUNDS OF PRECIP WILL BE. AMPLE CLOUD COVER
WILL WORK TO LIMIT INSTABILITY, THUS HAMPERING RAIN RATES, AND
RELATIVELY BRISK STORM MOTION WILL HELP TO MITIGATE FLASH
FLOODING.
BY SUNDAY, RAYMOND'S MOISTURE FUSES WITH THE REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL EXIST ALONGSIDE THE MORE
FAVORABLE FORCING TO CREATE FLOOD RISK. MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL BE FAVORED FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL ON SUNDAY, WHERE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL WORK TO
ENHANCE RAIN RATES.
AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEEKEND WEATHER MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN CAN, A SECOND UPPER LOW WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE INTO THE PACNW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING
FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE SCOOPING MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. A BIT OF DRY SLOTTING LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR THE EARLY
PART OF MONDAY BUT AS THE TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY SOUTH THAT
AFTERNOON, MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER LOW'S TRACK MAY BRING CONTINUED RAINFALL
THROUGH MIDWEEK, SHOULD THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFY. ECMWF IS LESS
ENTHUSED, BUT STILL SUGGESTS MORE LOCALIZED BOUTS OF RAINFALL.
MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT THURSDAY AS THE DRIER, MORE ROBUST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTRUDES INTO THE REGION, LEADING TO DRY
CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE CRITICAL TAF PERIOD WITH
TYPICAL AFTN GUSTS. ISOLD SHWRS WILL MOVE INTO WRN NM AFT 11/11Z,
SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR BRIEF AND LCL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE DIRECT HITS TO
TERMINALS, WITH KTCS AND KDMN BEING THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
MIN RH'S IN THE 30S EARLY ON BUT BY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE UP
INTO THE 40S TO 60S. GENERALLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT PRECIP WILL
START MOVING IN EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST BY
EARLY SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LEADING
TO FLOODING. THE RAIN LOOKS MORE STRATIFORM WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, SO IT WILL BE MORE OF A MODERATE, PROLONGED RAIN
EVENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 88 67 73 / 0 50 60 70
SIERRA BLANCA 58 84 60 69 / 0 20 30 70
LAS CRUCES 63 82 63 69 / 10 50 60 70
ALAMOGORDO 62 83 61 70 / 0 40 60 60
CLOUDCROFT 45 62 46 50 / 0 40 50 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 80 60 70 / 10 50 50 50
SILVER CITY 58 76 56 63 / 30 70 80 70
DEMING 65 83 64 70 / 10 60 70 80
LORDSBURG 65 82 61 67 / 30 70 70 80
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 87 67 71 / 10 50 70 80
DELL CITY 60 87 63 72 / 0 10 30 50
FORT HANCOCK 65 90 67 74 / 0 20 40 70
LOMA LINDA 59 80 60 65 / 0 30 60 70
FABENS 65 90 67 72 / 0 30 50 70
SANTA TERESA 65 85 64 70 / 10 50 60 80
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 84 64 70 / 10 50 70 70
JORNADA RANGE 63 82 61 70 / 10 50 60 70
HATCH 65 84 63 72 / 10 50 60 70
COLUMBUS 66 85 64 71 / 10 60 70 80
OROGRANDE 62 83 61 67 / 0 50 60 70
MAYHILL 49 74 53 62 / 0 30 50 60
MESCALERO 50 74 51 64 / 10 50 60 60
TIMBERON 48 71 49 59 / 0 40 50 60
WINSTON 52 73 51 63 / 20 50 60 50
HILLSBORO 59 81 57 66 / 20 50 60 60
SPACEPORT 61 81 59 69 / 10 50 60 60
LAKE ROBERTS 54 76 52 65 / 20 70 70 70
HURLEY 59 77 57 65 / 20 70 70 70
CLIFF 62 82 60 70 / 30 70 80 60
MULE CREEK 58 78 56 67 / 30 80 80 60
FAYWOOD 60 77 59 65 / 20 60 70 70
ANIMAS 65 84 61 68 / 30 70 70 80
HACHITA 64 82 61 67 / 20 70 80 90
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 84 61 68 / 10 60 70 90
CLOVERDALE 61 78 59 62 / 20 70 80 90
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page