082
FXUS64 KEPZ 200502
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1002 PM MST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 910 PM MST WED NOV 19 2025
- SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. LINGERING LIGHT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS BY THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
- BREEZY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY
HEADING IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. QUIETER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 910 PM MST WED NOV 19 2025
THE CORE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT'S BRINGING US LOWLAND
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SOCAL. IT IS CONTINUING TO PUSH IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST TO EAST
ALONG WITH THE SYSTEM. HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHEN THE COOLER AIR REALLY STARTS TO
PUSH IN. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 8500' IN THE GILA REGION JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE (SACRAMENTOS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 10000' AT THIS
TIME). RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AND SOON AFTER IS WHEN SNOW LEVELS
START TO DROP TO 8000, AND BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON IS WHEN LEVELS
DROP TO 7500'. LOCATIONS IN THE SACRAMENTOS LIKE CLOUDCROFT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE AROUND 8500'. UNFORTUNATELY FOR YOU SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE -
THIS WON'T BE TOO GOOD OF A SETUP FOR SNOW AS MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED OUT BEFORE IT COULD GET COLD ENOUGH.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK TOO HIGH IN THE MORE POPULATED AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK
RANGE AT AROUND 1-3" FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 8500-9000', AND THE
SACRAMENTOS WILL BE A BIT LESS WITH TOTALS GENERALLY 1-2" FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000'.
THEREAFTER, SOME LINGERING HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION WILL END AFTER SUNSET LEAVING MUCH QUIETER, AND
COOLER, CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES BY LATE SATURDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT WEST,
SPREADING NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.
SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHTER WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. MUCH
QUIETER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 445 PM MST WED NOV 19 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING MOSTLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP
NEAR KDMN AND EVEN TOWARDS KTCS, BUT WITH THE LOSS OF SUNLIGHT IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TOWARDS RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER HERE AND THERE. MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING A PRETTY GOOD SWATH OF RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW. RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO STILL BE
GOING ON BY SUNRISE BUT CLEARING CONDITIONS WILL WORK WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME LINGERING HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 15-25G30-35KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MST WED NOV 19 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, HIGHER HUMIDITY, AND A FAIR AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY, AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WILL BE MITIGATED BY HIGH HUMIDITY.
LOTS OF BURN PILE SPOT REQUESTS LATELY. MOST FAVORABLE VENT
RATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN SW NEW
MEXICO, AND THE MIDDLE ELEVATIONS ELSEWHERE, WITH LESS FAVORABLE
RATES ABOVE 7500 FEET. VENT RATES WILL BE MUCH IMPROVED TOMORROW
WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS, EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
(ESPECIALLY ABOVE 8000 FEET) WHERE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE
LIMITED, CLOSER TO THE INVERSION LAYER, THE BASE OF WHICH WHICH
LOOKS TO HANG OUT RIGHT AROUND 10,000 FEET MOST OF THE DAY. VENT
RATES LOOK THE WORST ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY.
THINGS COULD GET A BIT DODGY AGAIN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 64 41 63 42 / 40 70 70 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 35 61 37 / 70 50 50 0
LAS CRUCES 58 33 58 35 / 50 90 80 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 33 58 35 / 40 80 70 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 21 42 26 / 70 70 70 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 35 56 37 / 50 90 80 0
SILVER CITY 47 29 53 35 / 80 100 80 0
DEMING 59 32 60 37 / 60 100 80 0
LORDSBURG 54 32 58 38 / 50 80 60 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 62 41 60 43 / 50 70 70 0
DELL CITY 65 34 64 35 / 70 60 50 0
FORT HANCOCK 70 38 67 40 / 70 50 40 0
LOMA LINDA 56 35 55 40 / 70 70 50 0
FABENS 66 38 63 38 / 70 50 50 0
SANTA TERESA 60 36 59 37 / 50 70 70 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 60 39 60 42 / 40 80 70 0
JORNADA RANGE 58 32 58 32 / 50 90 80 0
HATCH 60 32 61 34 / 50 90 90 0
COLUMBUS 61 35 62 39 / 50 90 70 0
OROGRANDE 58 33 57 35 / 40 90 60 0
MAYHILL 50 27 56 30 / 70 60 60 0
MESCALERO 49 24 53 29 / 60 70 60 0
TIMBERON 46 23 49 27 / 70 60 60 10
WINSTON 48 23 52 27 / 70 100 80 0
HILLSBORO 55 31 57 36 / 70 100 90 0
SPACEPORT 57 29 57 32 / 50 90 90 0
LAKE ROBERTS 47 25 55 30 / 70 100 80 0
HURLEY 51 28 55 34 / 70 90 80 0
CLIFF 54 31 59 34 / 70 100 70 0
MULE CREEK 49 28 54 33 / 70 90 50 0
FAYWOOD 50 30 54 37 / 70 90 80 0
ANIMAS 56 33 60 35 / 50 80 40 0
HACHITA 55 31 59 34 / 50 90 50 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 55 31 61 35 / 50 90 40 0
CLOVERDALE 48 34 55 39 / 50 80 40 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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