010
FXUS64 KEPZ 201832
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1132 AM MST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 AM MST THU NOV 20 2025
- OUR LATEST STORM SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DEPARTING THE REGION, WITH
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY KEEPING SOME SLIGHT
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
- BREEZY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY
HEADING IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE AT HIGH ELEVATIONS.
- FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST THU NOV 20 2025
OUR LATEST RAIN-MAKER STORM SYSTEM HAS OPENED UP INTO A OPEN
WAVE, AND IS BEGINNING TO ROTATE UP AND OUT OF OUR REGION, TO THE
NE. AS IT DOES, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT OUT OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR MOSTLY ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND EVEN A STORM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION, WE ARE SQUEEZING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS, WITH THE RESULT BEING A BREEZY TO MARGINALLY WINDY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY. WSW TO W WINDS OF 20-30+ MPH
ARE EXPECTED. DUE TO THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, NOT EXPECTING MUCH,
IF ANY, DUST.
TOMORROW WILL BE AN "IN BETWEEN" DAY, AS ONE SYSTEM HAS DEPARTED
AND THE NEXT IS YET TO ARRIVE. WE WILL SIT UNDER A DEEP SW FLOW,
WITHIN THE BACKSIDE OF S MINOR SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE THE
DRIER AIR BACK IN, WITH COOL, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, AND
LIGHTER WINDS. SATURDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND, AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY SWINGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAJA TO OUR WEST. WITH SURFACE TROUGHING, ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW, TO OUR WEST, WE WILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GAINS ON SW SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORM'S ARRIVAL,
LATE SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL ALSO PICK UP MOISTURE OFF
THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AS IT TRACKS TOWARD OUR
REGION. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL TURN EAST, AND TRACK ACROSS S AZ, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS, AND SPREAD EAST
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE MODELS PAINT IT NOW, IT APPEARS THE
BEST WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN 9PM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 3PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ANOTHER "WARMISH" ONE, WITH SNOW LEVELS STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW
8000FT ELEVATION. THIS STORM APPEARS TO "ACT" A LOT LIKE OUR
CURRENT STORM, WITH MOISTURE/QPF FAVORING W AND N AREAS, WITH OUR
S AND E AREAS THE DRIEST. PCPN TOTALS FALL WITHIN THE 1/4-1/3"
NORTH, AND 1/10"-TRACE SOUTH. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LOW AS THE
MODELS NOW SEE THIS SYSTEM.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, BY LIFTING OUT TO THE NW
LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AND CLEARS OUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT BY
MONDAY MORNING. WE WILL FALL UNDER A DRY NW FLOW REGIME FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S., WITH RIDGING OVER THE E PAC/W COAST. THUS, WE WON'T SEE ANY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING IN OFF THE W COAST, AS THE STORM TRACK
GETS BUMPED NORTH. AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON
WED, WE LOOK TO SEE A SIDE/BACK DOOR HYBRID FRONTAL INTRUSION FROM
THE N AND E, BUT IT DOESN'T BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR, AND THE
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, SO REALLY INCONSEQUENTIAL. THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS LIKE A FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH DRY AND NEAR SEASONAL
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST THU NOV 20 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR
LATEST STORM SYSTEM IS BEGINNING IT'S EXIT, OUT OF THE REGION, AS
IT LIFTS NE. AS IT DOES, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND EARLY EVENING,
WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR MOVE IN FROM THE SW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ERODING CLOUDS, AND DISSIPATING AND LIFTING CIGS. STILL SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ISOL SHRA AND A FEW TSRA THROUGH THE REMAINING
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY (THROUGH 00-01Z0, BUT CHANCES OF IMPACTING A
TERMINAL LOCATION ARE FAIRLY LOW. STILL DO HAVE VCSH FOR SOME OF
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGER DEAL WILL BE INCREASING AFTN
WINDS TODAY. EXPECT WINDS FROM 250-280 TO INCREASE TO 18G28KTS
ACROSS THE REGION, AND STAY THERE THROUGH 01-02Z...THEN DROP INTO
THE 07-12KT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM 260-290.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST THU NOV 20 2025
OUR CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION, AS IT OPENS UP AND TRACKS NE INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE REGION GOT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN OVERNIGHT,
WITH THE GILA SEEING 0.50" TO 1.00", THE SACS GETTING 0.25-0.75",
AND THE LOWLANDS SEEING A WIDE RANGE, WITH N AND W AREAS GETTING
OVER 0.50" UP TO 1.00", AND SOUTHERN AREAS LESS. STILL SOME RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LIMITED AND LIGHT AMOUNTS REMAIN.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DAYS BETWEEN STORMS, WITH A DEEP SW
FLOW PATTERN AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MEANS FAIR WEATHER, WITH
COOL, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, BUT ELEVATED RH,
AND LIGHTER WINDS.
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY, THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL SEE INCREASED MOISTURE
FROM BOTH THE SW (WITH THE SYSTEM) AND THE SE, AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER, AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER,
AND ELEVATED RH VALUES. THIS SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATER
IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A DRIER, AND CONTINUED COOL, NW FLOW
RETURNING OVER THE REGION, BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM.
FOR NEXT WEEK, WE SEE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE E PAC/W COAST.
THIS MEANS A STRING OF FAIR WEATHER AND NO PASSING STORM SYSTEMS.
THE STORM TRACK WILL GET SHOVED WELL TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN "COOLISH" AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYING AT 30 PERCENT OR HIGHER. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 41 62 41 69 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 34 61 36 68 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 32 58 35 64 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 32 58 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 21 42 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 56 37 60 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 29 54 35 57 / 0 0 0 10
DEMING 32 61 36 66 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 32 58 36 62 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 40 60 43 68 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 33 64 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 38 67 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 36 54 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 37 64 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 35 59 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 39 59 41 66 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 31 58 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 31 60 33 68 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 37 62 39 68 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 33 56 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 27 57 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 24 53 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 24 50 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 24 52 27 55 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 32 56 36 60 / 0 0 0 10
SPACEPORT 29 56 31 63 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 25 55 30 58 / 0 0 0 10
HURLEY 28 55 33 59 / 0 0 0 10
CLIFF 31 59 33 65 / 0 0 0 10
MULE CREEK 29 55 32 60 / 0 0 0 20
FAYWOOD 31 54 36 59 / 0 0 0 10
ANIMAS 33 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 31 59 33 62 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 34 56 39 58 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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