085
FXUS64 KEPZ 132329
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
429 PM MST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 424 PM MST THU NOV 13 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.
- PACIFIC LOW BRINGING BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AREA WIDE AND
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST THU NOV 13 2025
RIDGING FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THIS WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER. LOWLAND HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT, ODDS ARE
GOOD THAT EL PASO AND MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO COULD TIE OR
BREAK DAILY RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY. EL PASO'S RECORD FOR NOVEMBER
14 IS 83 DEGREES, WHICH IS EXACTLY THE FORECASTED HIGH.
WE'VE BEEN WATCHING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. CLOSED LOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY SATURDAY. WE WILL
REMAIN DRY AND WARM FOR SATURDAY, BUT INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE THE START OF A PATTERN CHANGE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS DEPICT THIS PACIFIC
LOW'S JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
FORCE THE LOW ONSHORE AND PRODUCE A MORE OPEN WAVE PATTERN,
LIFTING IT NORTH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. FOR THE EL PASO REGION,
THIS MEANS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MISS US TO THE WEST AND
NORTH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE GILA WILDERNESS
AND AZ/NM STATE LINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL REMAIN DRY.
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY. WINDS
BECOMING BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE START OF A COOLING TREND
THAT WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BREEZY WEST
WINDS CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES. RIGHT
NOW, SUNDAY STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WARM FOR MOST OF THE DESERT
LOWLANDS, WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES FALLING CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS (LOWLAND HIGHS MID-TO-UPPER 60S).
NEXT WEEK'S PATTERN SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A SERIES OF PACIFIC LOWS CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL EACH GIVE US A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS (AND
MAYBE EVEN MOUNTAIN SNOW). THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE LOWS WILL BE
THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHICH HASN'T
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH EACH MODEL RUN. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 424 PM MST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT-BKN250. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THOUGH FAVORING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT ELP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST THU NOV 13 2025
WARM AND DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY, BUT LIGHT WINDS KEEPING FIRE
DANGER LOW. MIN RH 20-30%. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH LEADING TO
GOOD VENTILATION. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, WITH
WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER GNF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
LEAD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION. INCREASING RH WILL KEEP CRITICAL
FIRE THRESHOLDS AT BAY. COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BREEZY
CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 83 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 49 80 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 46 78 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 47 79 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 39 60 40 58 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 47 73 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 46 81 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 78 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 56 80 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 43 83 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 51 88 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 53 76 52 74 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 49 84 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 49 79 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 55 80 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 45 79 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 44 81 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 49 81 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 47 78 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 43 72 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 42 71 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 41 68 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 39 70 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 49 77 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 42 78 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 41 73 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 45 75 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 44 80 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 42 75 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 49 74 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 47 80 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 45 78 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 48 80 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 52 73 49 69 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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