238
FXUS64 KEPZ 201222
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
522 AM MST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 454 AM MST THU NOV 20 2025
- SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. LINGERING LIGHT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS BY THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
- BREEZY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY
HEADING IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. QUIETER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 910 PM MST WED NOV 19 2025
THE CORE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT'S BRINGING US LOWLAND
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SOCAL. IT IS CONTINUING TO PUSH IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW AS RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST TO EAST
ALONG WITH THE SYSTEM. HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WHEN THE COOLER AIR REALLY STARTS TO
PUSH IN. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 8500' IN THE GILA REGION JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE (SACRAMENTOS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 10000' AT THIS
TIME). RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AND SOON AFTER IS WHEN SNOW LEVELS
START TO DROP TO 8000, AND BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON IS WHEN LEVELS
DROP TO 7500'. LOCATIONS IN THE SACRAMENTOS LIKE CLOUDCROFT SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE AROUND 8500'. UNFORTUNATELY FOR YOU SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE -
THIS WON'T BE TOO GOOD OF A SETUP FOR SNOW AS MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED OUT BEFORE IT COULD GET COLD ENOUGH.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK TOO HIGH IN THE MORE POPULATED AREAS OF THE
MOUNTAINS BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK
RANGE AT AROUND 1-3" FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 8500-9000', AND THE
SACRAMENTOS WILL BE A BIT LESS WITH TOTALS GENERALLY 1-2" FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000'.
THEREAFTER, SOME LINGERING HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.
PRECIPITATION WILL END AFTER SUNSET LEAVING MUCH QUIETER, AND
COOLER, CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES BY LATE SATURDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT WEST,
SPREADING NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.
SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE LIGHTER WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM. MUCH
QUIETER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST THU NOV 20 2025
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING. CIGS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AS CIGS CHANGE THIS AM. LOW CHANCE OF TS THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS TO 30KTS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FIZZLING OUT BY 0Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 30KTS FOR GUSTS BY THE AFTERNOON FROM THE W-SW. WINDS
APPROACH AWW CRITERIA FOR KELP, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO NO AWW
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WINDS SUBSIDE TO AOB 10KTS THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 454 AM MST THU NOV 20 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR
TODAY, RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST DUE TO THE PASSING UPPER LOW,
DISSIPATING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LIGHT SNOWFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000FT. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE W-SW, GUSTING TO ABOUT 30 MPH. MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE HIGH TODAY, SO FIRE DANGER IS NOT A THREAT WITH THE BREEZY
WINDS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT TONIGHT AS WINDS
RELAX. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FRIDAY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SATURDAY, BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES SAT NIGHT-SUN. WINDS WILL BE MODESTLY BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ON SAT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A
QUIETER PATTERN TAKES OVER STARTING ON MON WITH NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 30-50% TODAY IN THE LOWLANDS, 50-70% IN THE
MTNS; THEN 25-45% AREA-WIDE THROUGH SAT. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD
TO EXCELLENT TODAY, WITH POOR TO FAIR IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
MOSTLY POOR ON FRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 41 63 42 70 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 35 61 37 67 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 33 58 35 65 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 33 58 35 66 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 21 42 26 46 / 10 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 56 37 61 / 0 0 0 10
SILVER CITY 29 53 35 56 / 0 0 10 20
DEMING 32 60 37 65 / 0 0 0 20
LORDSBURG 32 58 38 60 / 0 0 10 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 41 60 43 68 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 34 64 35 68 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 38 67 40 75 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 35 55 40 62 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 38 63 38 72 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 36 59 37 66 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 39 60 42 66 / 0 0 0 10
JORNADA RANGE 32 58 32 65 / 0 0 0 10
HATCH 32 61 34 66 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 35 62 39 66 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 33 57 35 65 / 0 0 0 10
MAYHILL 27 56 30 54 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 24 53 29 58 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 23 49 27 54 / 10 0 0 10
WINSTON 23 52 27 53 / 0 0 10 20
HILLSBORO 31 57 36 59 / 0 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 29 57 32 63 / 0 0 0 10
LAKE ROBERTS 25 55 30 57 / 0 0 10 30
HURLEY 28 55 34 59 / 0 0 10 20
CLIFF 31 59 34 63 / 0 0 10 20
MULE CREEK 28 54 33 59 / 0 0 10 30
FAYWOOD 30 54 37 58 / 0 0 10 20
ANIMAS 33 60 35 62 / 0 0 10 30
HACHITA 31 59 34 61 / 0 0 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 61 35 62 / 0 0 10 20
CLOVERDALE 34 55 39 56 / 0 0 10 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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