491
FXUS64 KEPZ 030618
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1118 PM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 PM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
- A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, JUST GRAZING OUR
AREA. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE GILA REGION
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WITH JUST MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
- DRY CONDITIONS, TYPICAL BREEZES, AND DAILY WARMING RETURN FOR
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
A WEAK TROUGH, CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING
FROM NORTH-CENTRAL NM INTO SW ARIZONA, WILL CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS SHOW
SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, WHICH
MAY HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SWING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED DRIER, AND NO LONGER
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SCOOP UP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. STILL, THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
GILA REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND ON INTO THE SACRAMENTOS BY
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
BUT GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH.
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM, IT WILL BE BACK TO BENIGN WEATHER, AND WE'LL
HAVE TO LOOK WELL BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR OUT NEXT
POTENTIAL DISAPPOINTMENT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1009 PM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS, WITH BASES AROUND 7000 FEET. WSW WINDS WILL BECOME A
LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS AROUND
18-23 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 19-20Z. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY
WORK INTO THE GILA REGION BEFORE 06Z 12/4, BUT NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED AT ANY TERMINALS THROUGH THEN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM SLIDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING
INCREASED HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY AMONGST A SLIGHT INCREASE OF WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY GRAZE THE GILA REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION OF RAIN OR SNOW IS
NOT LIKELY. THE SYSTEM WILL EJECT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A DRYING TREND TO TAKE HOLD. MINRH WILL STAY
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE PRESENCE OF TYPICAL AFTERNOON
GUSTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. VENTILATION WILL BE A BIT OF A
MIXED BAG, WITH THE BEST WIDESPREAD GOOD TO VERY GOOD RATES
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. POOR TO FAIR RATES WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER,
WITH FRIDAY BEING THE ONLY DAY THAT SEES BETTER COVERAGE OF GOOD
TO VERY GOOD VENTILATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 44 59 42 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 64 39 54 38 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 60 38 54 33 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 61 35 54 32 / 0 0 0 30
CLOUDCROFT 40 24 35 26 / 0 0 0 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 36 52 29 / 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 52 31 51 29 / 0 0 0 20
DEMING 63 37 57 31 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 60 35 56 32 / 0 0 0 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 44 58 39 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 66 34 54 27 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 71 43 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 39 51 35 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 68 43 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 63 41 57 38 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 41 56 39 / 0 0 0 20
JORNADA RANGE 60 34 54 28 / 0 0 0 20
HATCH 63 36 57 30 / 0 0 0 10
COLUMBUS 66 41 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 60 37 54 34 / 0 0 0 20
MAYHILL 53 24 47 28 / 0 0 0 40
MESCALERO 51 27 45 27 / 0 0 0 50
TIMBERON 49 26 43 26 / 0 0 0 30
WINSTON 52 23 48 21 / 0 0 0 20
HILLSBORO 59 33 52 31 / 0 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 60 33 53 30 / 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 51 25 50 13 / 0 0 0 20
HURLEY 55 30 52 28 / 0 0 0 20
CLIFF 58 28 57 24 / 0 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 54 27 52 18 / 0 0 0 20
FAYWOOD 55 34 51 29 / 0 0 0 20
ANIMAS 63 37 58 34 / 0 0 0 10
HACHITA 62 36 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 37 59 32 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 57 39 54 36 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page