549
FXUS64 KEPZ 190934
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
334 AM MDT FRI APR 19 2024
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI APR 19 2024
OUR DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW
10%. FOR THIS WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK, OUR DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND BREEZY TO
WINDY AFTERNOON WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI APR 19 2024
WE HAVE BEEN ENJOYING RELATIVELY CALM CONDITIONS FOR APRIL, BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS IN THE EXTENDED FORECASTS THAT THE WINDS ARE SET
TO RETURN. BUT FOR TODAY, WE WILL SEE MORE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
MOISTURE WILL START TO CREEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST, BUT IT
WILL BE TOO LITTLE AND TOO SHALLOW TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER. BY SATURDAY THAT MOISTURE PUSH WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER,
PUSHING TO NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, WE WILL
HAVE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT, WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO GIVE US A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND IN HUDSPETH COUNTY. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL STAY
DRY. A FEW STORMS IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS MAY PRODUCE SOME
DRY LIGHTNING. ON SUNDAY, THE PUSH OF MOISTURE MAY BE EVEN A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST, BUT WE WILL LOSE THE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT, AS IT WILL BE WELL
TO THE EAST, SO WE WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLOW (WEST THE EAST)
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE TO THE
EAST AND START TO DRY US BACK OUT. AT THE SAME TIME WE WILL SEE
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GIVE US BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS AND THEN ON NEXT FRIDAY A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL GIVE US WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TAKING A QUICK LOOK AT TEMPERATURES, LIKE I MENTIONED, TODAY'S
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, THEN FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WE WILL SEE LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE
EAST OF THE RIVER. THEN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT THU APR 18 2024
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER DRY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BAND OF
HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY FL250 AND ABOVE LEADING TO BKN-OVC SKIES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE BOUNDARY
INTRUSION AT KELP AROUND SUNRISE, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE EAST WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AOB 8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT, WITH 190-230 AT 08-14 KNOTS PREVAILING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI APR 19 2024
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MEAN TIME WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LITTLE FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS.
FOR TODAY OUR MIN RH'S WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE LOWLANDS AND NEAR 10% IN AREA MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY AND EVEN
MORE SO ON SUNDAY, WE WILL SEE A MODEST PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE
EAST. ON SATURDAY WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, A FEW OF THOSE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME DRY LIGHTNING. BY SUNDAY THE MIN RH'S WILL RANGE FROM
10 TO 20% NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER TO 30 TO 40% IN THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
FOR NEXT WEEK, WE WILL SEE A DRYING TREND, WITH WARM TEMPERATURES,
AND INCREASING WINDS. BY TUESDAY MIN RH'S WILL BE BACK IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE LOWLANDS AND 10 TO 20% IN AREA MOUNTAINS. THE
WINDS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING
EACH DAY AND WE WILL SEE ELEVATE TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS NEXT FRIDAY WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 90 57 87 52 / 0 0 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 77 51 78 45 / 0 10 20 10
LAS CRUCES 90 53 87 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 85 54 80 45 / 0 0 20 0
CLOUDCROFT 63 41 56 34 / 0 10 50 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 87 53 82 50 / 0 0 10 0
SILVER CITY 79 49 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 89 50 85 47 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 87 49 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 87 57 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 79 49 76 45 / 0 10 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 87 51 86 47 / 0 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 79 50 76 44 / 0 0 10 0
FABENS 88 53 87 49 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 86 51 84 47 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 87 56 83 51 / 0 0 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 86 50 84 44 / 0 0 10 0
HATCH 89 49 86 47 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 88 55 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 84 51 79 47 / 0 0 10 0
MAYHILL 74 43 61 37 / 0 0 50 10
MESCALERO 74 46 66 38 / 0 0 50 20
TIMBERON 71 42 65 34 / 0 0 30 10
WINSTON 80 46 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 85 49 82 45 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 86 48 83 44 / 0 0 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 80 43 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 82 46 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 85 48 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 81 49 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 82 49 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 87 49 84 47 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 87 51 84 47 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 86 49 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 80 49 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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