621
FXUS64 KEPZ 211135
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
435 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK INCLUDING A
DRY AND PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 844 PM MST THU NOV 20 2025
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE WAY OUT AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH HEADED OUR WAY. TONIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN,
WIND, AND EVEN SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO
OUR NORTHEAST, IN ITS WAKE WE WILL HAVE A DRIER SHORT WAVE RIDGE
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP OUR WINDS
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF THINGS AND IT WILL GIVE US DRIER AND A
LITTLE WARMER CONDITIONS. ON SATURDAY, DESPITE AN EAST PUSH
KEEPING OUR SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST; ALOFT, THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL HELP OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
LATE ON SATURDAY THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG OR HAVE AS
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE SYSTEM THAT JUST PAST THROUGH.
WE WILL SEE SOME LOWLAND RAINS AND LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE LIGHT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS AS MORE WARM AIR IS BEING DRAWN UP INTO THE
REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
START OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10K FEET, FINALLY LOWERING TO AROUND 7K
BY SUNDAY, BUT BY THAT TIME MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS WRAPPED
UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK, A MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
A WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SKIES SKC
IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TODAY. FEW-SCT170 AFTER 00Z AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
LOW FIRE DANGER TODAY WITH WET FOREST CONDITIONS. MIN RH 40-50%
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND POOR VENTILATION. WINDS INCREASING OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY, SHIFTING QUICKLY TO THE WEST ON
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH
FORECASTED RAIN AMOUNTS 0.20-0.40" OVER MOUNTAIN FORESTS. DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 42 71 49 65 / 0 10 30 10
SIERRA BLANCA 37 68 45 63 / 0 10 30 10
LAS CRUCES 35 65 42 60 / 0 10 50 10
ALAMOGORDO 35 65 41 60 / 0 0 50 20
CLOUDCROFT 27 48 30 39 / 0 10 60 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 62 42 58 / 0 10 70 30
SILVER CITY 35 58 37 49 / 0 20 80 30
DEMING 36 67 42 61 / 0 10 50 10
LORDSBURG 35 63 40 56 / 0 20 60 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 68 49 63 / 0 10 40 10
DELL CITY 33 68 44 66 / 0 10 40 10
FORT HANCOCK 40 75 48 70 / 0 10 20 10
LOMA LINDA 40 62 44 57 / 0 10 40 10
FABENS 38 72 46 66 / 0 10 30 10
SANTA TERESA 37 67 45 61 / 0 10 30 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 66 48 62 / 0 10 40 20
JORNADA RANGE 32 66 42 60 / 0 10 50 20
HATCH 33 68 42 63 / 0 10 60 20
COLUMBUS 37 68 44 63 / 0 10 40 10
OROGRANDE 34 66 44 60 / 0 10 50 20
MAYHILL 30 57 34 51 / 0 10 60 30
MESCALERO 29 60 33 50 / 0 10 60 40
TIMBERON 27 55 32 47 / 0 10 50 20
WINSTON 27 55 32 50 / 0 10 70 30
HILLSBORO 36 61 39 57 / 0 10 60 20
SPACEPORT 31 64 40 59 / 0 10 60 30
LAKE ROBERTS 30 59 34 49 / 0 20 80 40
HURLEY 33 61 37 53 / 0 10 70 20
CLIFF 32 66 40 56 / 0 20 80 30
MULE CREEK 31 62 37 51 / 0 30 80 40
FAYWOOD 36 60 40 53 / 0 10 70 20
ANIMAS 34 64 42 59 / 0 20 60 10
HACHITA 32 63 38 58 / 0 10 50 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 34 63 40 59 / 0 10 40 10
CLOVERDALE 39 60 42 52 / 0 20 60 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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