482
FXUS64 KEPZ 290456
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
956 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 911 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
- WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH DRY
AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING EASTERLY
BREEZINESS AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING BELOW NORMAL.
- DRY CONDITIONS, GENTLE WARMING, AND LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 911 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FOR SAT, KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LIGHT WEST WINDS UNDER FAIR SKIES. A COLD FRONT DIVES DOWN THE
PLAINS ON SAT, ARRIVING IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, BRINGING BREEZY
EAST WINDS IN THE EARLY AM SUN. WEST MTN SLOPES WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST GUSTS, ESPECIALLY THE HUECOS, BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT
DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. NBM POST-FRONTAL
WINDS SEEMED A BIT TOO LIGHT, SO WENT WITH 75TH %-ILE, WHICH
BROUGHT GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH ALONG WEST SLOPES. THE FRONT ISN'T
FORECAST TO BRING TERRIBLY COLD AIR, BUT ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN
TEMPS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUN.
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY MON,
RESULTING IN MODESTLY BREEZY WEST WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR US FROM THIS SYSTEM AS PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN TO THE NORTH BEFORE THE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DIVING DOWN THE ROCKIES. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS REGARDING WHAT THE SYSTEM DOES WHEN IT
REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND WED. THE LREF CONSENSUS
SHOWS A LOBE OF ENERGY CUTTING OFF AND KIND OF RETROGRADING OFF
THE SOCAL COAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, SCOOPING UP SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP
THE TROUGH IN THE MAIN FLOW AND GIVE US A GLANCING BLOW OF PRECIP
IN THE THU TIMEFRAME. LOW POPS SEEM REASONABLE FOR LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH A WETTER PATTERN SETTING UP, BUT TIMING AND IMPACTS
ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. BREEZY WEST WINDS AND LIGHT MTN
SNOW ARE ON THE TABLE FOR LATER NEXT WEEK. TEMPS HOLD NEAR NORMAL
NEXT WEEK UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AND SUBTLE CHANGES IN HEIGHTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 911 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS STAY
LIGHT AOB 8KTS MOSTLY FROM W-SW. WINDS SHIFT E-NE TO END THE
PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN. MAINLY SKC EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A TROUGH NAVIGATING INTO THE
MIDWEST WILL KICK OFF A BACKDOOR FRONT SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS
MOST ZONES ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT, WITH
MINRH AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT HIGHER AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY'S
READINGS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SIDE-SWIPE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT THE BORDERLAND WILL MISS OUT
ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. INSTEAD, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WESTERLY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH
MAGNITUDES WILL STAY WELL BELOW ELEVATED OR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO DIP INTO THE BORDERLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING LOW-END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL
TREND POOR TO FAIR, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 70 40 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 32 51 33 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 65 35 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 66 34 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 22 40 27 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 64 35 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 61 35 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 69 35 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 64 35 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 41 57 42 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 32 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 38 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 62 32 49 37 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 71 39 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 67 37 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 39 56 40 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 65 32 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 68 32 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 70 38 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 64 35 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 62 22 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 59 24 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 57 22 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 60 27 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 64 35 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 64 30 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 62 30 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 64 33 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 67 32 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 62 32 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 64 35 53 34 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 67 36 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 67 34 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 37 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 61 41 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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