823
FXUS64 KEPZ 110445
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1045 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1023 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
- MOSTLY DRY AND HOT FOR FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS IN
FAR EASTERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 ACROSS
THE LOWLANDS.
- AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IMPROVE. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST NEXT WEEK WITH A LOW THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
FOR TONIGHT, ISOLATED VIRGA/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HANG AROUND AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
STORM CHANCES DIMINISH FURTHER ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ALONG THE INT'L BORDER FROM SOCAL. DRIER,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ROTATES AROUND THE HIGH, KEEPING STORM CHANCES
MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH,
HUDSPETH COUNTY AND THE SACS COULD SEE A FEW STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED THOSE AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WIND WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS MODELED AND LARGE DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS OF NEAR 60 DEGREES. THOSE GUSTY WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HABOOBS AND PUSHING DUST BACK TO THE WEST
TOWARDS EL PASO DURING THE EVENING. THE HRRR, WHICH HAS PERFORMED
WELL IN RECENT DAYS, IS ALSO SUGGESTING A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING
OVER THE BLACK RANGE AND PUSHING SE TOWARDS LAS CRUCES.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, BREEZY W-NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS NM, FOCUSING WEST OF THE
RGV. WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE AZ BORDER. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST MAY BE SEEN ALONG THE LORDSBURG PLAYA AND THE DEMING
AREA LATER IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY HOT AS WELL, SETTING UP AN UNPLEASANT
"HAIR-DRYER" TYPE OF DAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 105 FOR
MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS ON FRIDAY, SO HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT. NO CHANGES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY ARE MADE FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN REACHING 105 IS HIGHEST IN EL
PASO AND THE LOWER RGV. FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH KELP HAVING A 92% CHANCE OF REACHING AT LEAST 105
ACCORDING TO THE NBM.
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER HIGH RETREATS FURTHER WEST AND
CENTRALIZES OVER SOCAL, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL.
SATURDAY COULD STILL BE HOT, AS THE NBM GIVES KELP A 23% CHANCE OF
HITTING 105. RAIN/STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SAT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SAGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MOISTURE FILTERS IN FROM THE EAST. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW/VORT MAX WILL GIVE EASTERN AREAS SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY AND A HIGHER RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING. WPC HAS INCLUDED FAR EASTERN AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING (AT LEAST 15% CHANCE WITHIN 25 MILES), WHICH IS
SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR OUR AREA. SIMILAR AREAS ARE INCLUDED IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, FAVORING STRONG WINDS. LOWER
STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE RGV.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TURNS MESSY AND MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TWO WEAK RIDGES FORMING WITH GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN BETWEEN
THEM. THE PREDOMINANT RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE
OTHER ONE NEAR THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE SOUTH
AND INCREASES RAIN CHANCES AREA-WIDE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. PWS CLIMB
TO ABOUT 1.25" BY MIDWEEK (ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT HISTORIC) AS
IMPULSES/VORT MAXES MEANDER BETWEEN THE HIGHS. FOR NOW, THERE SEEMS
TO BE A LOW RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, MORE SO LATER IN THE WEEK AS A GOOD AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW PWS APPROACHING 1.5" (EURO MEMBERS ARE MORE BULLISH
ON HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS, FOLLOWING A TREND THAT WE'VE SEEN THIS
MONSOON SEASON THAT HAS PERFORMED WELL COMPARED TO THE GFS). FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS IN NATURE. WE SHOULD GAIN MORE CONFIDENCE BY THIS
WEEKEND IN WHICH DAYS ARE LOOKING THE MOST ACTIVE AS MODELS
RESOLVE VORT MAXES/SHORTWAVES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK AFTER THE HOT DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
ISOLATED -SHRA LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING BY THE
AM. HAZINESS IS HANGING AROUND AT KLRU AS THE DUST SETTLES, BUT
IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR AROUND THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS BECOME BREEZY FROM THE W-NW, GUSTING TO ABOUT 25KTS THROUGH
THE EVENING. KDMN COULD SEE VIS REDUCTIONS TO MVFR LEVELS LATER IN
THE DAY DUE TO BLDU, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN
THEIR TAF OR ANY OTHER TERMINAL. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY WITH A NEAR-ZERO CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS AT THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON. KLRU IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
NEARBY TS FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT THE CHANCE IS AROUND 10%.
ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH
OUTFLOW/BLDU POTENTIAL TOWARDS KELP DURING THE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREA
MOUNTAINS, BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND RAIN AMOUNTS. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWLANDS TO GET NEAR AND ABOVE 100 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 103 TO 108 IN THE LOWLANDS ON FRIDAY. RH VALUES
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS, BUT THE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THROUGH THURSDAY AND A SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR FRIDAY. MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND RH'S. MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 103 79 108 79 / 0 30 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 93 69 99 68 / 0 10 30 30
LAS CRUCES 101 74 104 73 / 10 40 10 20
ALAMOGORDO 99 72 104 71 / 10 20 10 10
CLOUDCROFT 78 56 81 53 / 20 20 20 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 101 74 103 73 / 30 40 10 10
SILVER CITY 96 67 94 65 / 20 40 10 20
DEMING 103 76 104 75 / 20 50 10 10
LORDSBURG 102 72 100 71 / 20 20 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 100 78 104 78 / 10 30 10 10
DELL CITY 98 72 103 71 / 0 10 20 10
FORT HANCOCK 104 76 107 76 / 0 10 20 30
LOMA LINDA 94 70 99 69 / 0 10 10 10
FABENS 101 77 107 76 / 0 20 10 20
SANTA TERESA 100 77 104 76 / 10 40 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 101 78 105 76 / 10 30 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 101 72 104 69 / 10 40 10 10
HATCH 103 74 106 71 / 10 40 10 20
COLUMBUS 103 79 103 78 / 10 50 0 20
OROGRANDE 98 72 102 71 / 0 20 10 10
MAYHILL 89 62 91 58 / 20 20 30 10
MESCALERO 88 61 92 58 / 20 20 20 10
TIMBERON 85 59 89 57 / 20 20 20 10
WINSTON 93 63 96 61 / 40 30 10 0
HILLSBORO 99 70 102 68 / 30 50 20 20
SPACEPORT 100 70 102 68 / 20 40 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 96 61 97 59 / 30 40 20 20
HURLEY 98 69 97 68 / 20 40 10 10
CLIFF 103 69 102 67 / 20 30 10 10
MULE CREEK 99 67 97 65 / 10 20 10 10
FAYWOOD 96 70 97 68 / 30 50 20 20
ANIMAS 102 71 100 71 / 20 30 10 20
HACHITA 101 72 99 72 / 20 40 10 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 101 70 98 69 / 30 50 20 40
CLOVERDALE 95 65 94 64 / 40 50 30 40
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH
COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
NM...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL
TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SIERRA
COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA
COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-WEST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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