504
FXUS64 KEPZ 210534
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1034 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.
- LOWLAND FREEZES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY.
- LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN LOW END BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE LOWLANDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN
MOUNTAIN AREAS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE PERIOD. AN UL RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WORKING AGAINST THIS
BUILDING RIDGE, HOWEVER, WILL BE A STUBBORN, QUASI-STATIONARY UL
LOW OFF THE PACNW COAST. BY SUNDAY, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN
AS RESULT, BRINGING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TYPICALLY, THIS ZONAL
PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS, BUT ONLY LOW- END
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING EACH AFTERNOON. THE MAIN JET
STREAM WILL KEEP NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE PLAINS WILL LIMIT LEE CYCLOGENESIS. GFS SHOWS A DIGGING
TROUGH IN THE FLOW BY MID-WEEK, WHICH WOULD GIVE ONLY THE GILA A
SHOT AT PRECIP, BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT WELL REPRESENTED BY THE
EURO OR NBM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 8KT. WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
FOR MOST TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE
AREA AFTER 15Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY WITH
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP
INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, WHICH COMBINED
WITH STABLE CONDITIONS, WILL LEAD TO POOR VENTING. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OTHERWISE SIMILAR CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 41 68 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 35 66 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 34 66 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 33 65 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 28 54 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 34 63 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 36 66 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 31 68 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 29 68 31 70 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 41 66 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 31 67 32 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 34 70 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 39 61 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 34 67 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 34 64 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 66 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 30 65 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 30 68 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 34 64 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 34 62 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 33 67 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 31 62 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 30 60 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 27 63 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 33 66 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 30 64 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 30 69 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 30 66 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 20 74 23 75 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 30 68 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 34 65 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 28 69 31 72 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 28 66 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 32 67 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 36 67 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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