020
FXUS64 KEPZ 061141
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
541 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE NEW MEXICO I-10 CORRIDOR.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
WARMING UP ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S., WITH THE
MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE, AND A
SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER IDAHO. DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST, THOUGH SOME DEWPOINTS AROUND 40 REMAINED IN
OUR EASTERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. FOR TODAY,
THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND TO THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. MODEST INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
WILL CONTINUE, HENCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEST AND NORTH OF
DEMING.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, DROPPING SECONDARY LOW DOWN TO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY, SO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
CWA LOOK TO HAVE A SHOT AT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATE
WED NIGHT/THU MORNING UNDER THE SECONDARY LOW. SOME OF THE MODELS
HINT AT QPF FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA INCLUDING WEST TEXAS, BUT FOR
NOW THE GRIDS DON'T REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES REMAINING
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY EXITS EAST OF
THE AREA WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING REPLACING IT. WEAK BACK DOOR
FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY,
THUS DRIVING DEWPOINT TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
THOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST, THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR
NO HELP FROM MID/UPPER DYNAMICS. THUS STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE CWA, AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DECREASING SOME, DON'T EXPECT
MUCH OF ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH FEW100 SCT-
BKN250. DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
DEMING...SCATTERED BKN070 -SHRA WITH ISOLATED BKN050CB -TSRA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING AFTER 03Z. SURFACE WINDS
WEST 7-10 KNOTS INCREASING TO WEST 12-17G30 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. FROM
20Z-01Z...PATCHY 5SM BLDU POSSIBLE OVER HIDALGO, LUNA, DONA ANA,
AND EL PASO COUNTIES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
COMBINATION OF COOL TEMPERATURES, RELATIVELY HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
SLACK WINDS (AFTER TODAY'S AFTERNOON BREEZES) SHOULD KEEP FIRE
CONDITIONS BELOW ELEVATED INTO SATURDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY-BEST
OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL,
ONLY WARMING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT THURSDAY, SWITCHING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING FIRE CONDITIONS BACK TO
ELEVATED CATEGORY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 20-30% TODAY DECREASING TO 13-20% WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. MOUNTAINS 30-45% TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, DECREASING
TO 20-35% THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VENT RATES VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT
TODAY, BECOMING FAIR-GOOD WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND BACK TO VERY
GOOD-EXCELLENT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 74 52 78 56 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 70 47 75 49 / 0 0 0 10
LAS CRUCES 70 44 75 50 / 10 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 69 44 73 46 / 20 20 30 20
CLOUDCROFT 47 28 52 32 / 40 40 50 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 69 47 72 49 / 30 20 50 20
SILVER CITY 58 38 67 40 / 40 20 40 10
DEMING 72 44 78 49 / 10 10 10 10
LORDSBURG 66 41 74 46 / 20 0 20 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 71 52 75 56 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 72 46 77 48 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 76 48 80 53 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 66 46 71 50 / 0 0 0 10
FABENS 74 49 79 54 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 70 47 75 51 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 71 52 75 55 / 10 0 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 69 42 74 45 / 10 10 20 20
HATCH 71 43 77 46 / 20 10 30 20
COLUMBUS 72 48 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 45 73 48 / 10 0 10 10
MAYHILL 60 33 62 34 / 30 20 40 10
MESCALERO 58 30 62 35 / 30 30 50 20
TIMBERON 56 29 61 33 / 30 30 30 10
WINSTON 61 30 63 33 / 50 20 60 30
HILLSBORO 66 39 71 43 / 30 20 40 20
SPACEPORT 68 40 72 44 / 30 10 30 20
LAKE ROBERTS 59 29 67 35 / 40 20 60 20
HURLEY 63 37 71 41 / 30 10 30 10
CLIFF 61 37 73 40 / 40 20 40 10
MULE CREEK 57 32 69 34 / 50 10 40 10
FAYWOOD 62 39 70 44 / 30 10 30 10
ANIMAS 68 42 75 46 / 10 0 10 0
HACHITA 68 42 74 46 / 10 0 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 69 43 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 63 41 71 47 / 10 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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