191
FXUS64 KEPZ 270528
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1028 PM MST FRI FEB 26 2021
..UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. SO, SKIES GO FROM SKC-
FEW250 INTO SCT-BKN250 AFTER 15Z. MOSTLY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
EXCEPT SOME ISOLATED AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE TERRAIN DRIVEN.
AFTER 18Z WINDS BECOME FROM THE WEST AREA WIDE, AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.
29
PREV DISCUSSION...116 PM MST FRI FEB 26 2021
SYNOPSIS
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE BREEZY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE
MID 60S AND LOW 70S MAINLY. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS
BREEZY EAST WINDS USHER IN COOLER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL ACROSS AREA
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH ACROSS MAINLY SIERRA COUNTY. ALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. A WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT TUESDAY
AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
ZONAL FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DRIVE A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE CWA SITS WITHIN A SWATH OF VERY DRY AIR AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY DOES SHOW SCATTERED CIRRUS STREAMING BY, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
KEEP UPPER LEVELS SATURATED INTO TOMORROW. THEREFORE, EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW WITH PLENTY OF
HIGH CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS FOR LATE
FEBRUARY AS LOWLAND ZONES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60'S/70 DEGREES
TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL, RIGHT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, AROUND 5 TO
10 MPH. FOR TOMORROW, WEAK LEE SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN NM PLAINS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST FLOW TO 15 TO 20
MPH RESULTING IN BREEZY WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
THE LONG TERM BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COMPACT
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH, BUT A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT COULD SEE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOWERS IN SIERRA COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ABOUT AN
INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK
RANGE AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST NM IN THE BOOTHEEL INCLUDING
LORDSBURG EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF LUNA COUNTY. MINOR AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST INTO
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. RESULTANT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, MAINLY
FOR ELEVATED TERRAIN AND WEST FACING SLOPES OF AREA MTNS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE
MID 50S.
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD TUESDAY AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 60S, THEN
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH DAYS, WITH BREEZY WINDS
EXPECTED, AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS
IN THE FORM OF LIQUID. THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
JUXTAPOSE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, ESPECIALLY THE
GILA REGION, WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE MEASURABLE RAIN.
TOP 3 DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE ON UPPER LOW DEVELOPING, THE
SOUTHWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD EXTEND AND INTENSITY REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THE OVERALL MODELED PATTERN APPEARS RATHER PROGRESSIVE DURING
THIS TIME AND NOT ALL THAT AMPLIFIED, WHICH SEEMS TO SUPPORT
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE GFS/CMC, MEANWHILE THE ECM DETERMINISTIC
COMPLETELY FLIPPED THE PATTERN COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN (WENT FROM
RIDGE OVERHEAD TO THE WETTEST OF THE 3 MODELS). TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT ENS MEANS (PROBABILITIES OF >0.1" LIQUID BEING 20-30% W/NW
AT BEST, AND 10 TO MAYBE 20% E) AND PLUME LIKE DIAGRAMS, THE
PROBABILITY FOR RAINS AROUND OR >0.1" WILL REMAIN AROUND THE
DIVIDE, WITH LOCATIONS EAST SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (ALTHOUGH
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS). THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE WARM, SO ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME ACROSS, BUT, THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE BLACK RANGE MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWS IF PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZES AS IS DEPICTED
CURRENTLY. TIMING OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT IN THE
COMING DAYS, BUT BASED ON DATA AS OF NOW, THINK MOST OF THE QPF
OUTSIDE OF THE W/NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
AS WARM AND DRY AIR COMBINES WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS TO PRODUCE
A FEW PERIODS OF RED FLAG CRITERIA. FOR SATURDAY, WARM WEATHER AND
VERY DRY AIR WILL CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP TO 5-10% ALL
ZONES. THIS COMBINED WITH 20FT WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL CAUSE NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD NOT ISSUING ANY WARNINGS DUE TO WINDS
REMAINING JUST BELOW CRITERIA. NEVERTHELESS, FIRE DANGER WILL BE
HIGH. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR (30-40%). SUNDAY WILL BE
JUST AS DRY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WINDS WILL REACH
CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS, RED FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NM ALONG THE AZ STATE LINE. RAPID CURING OF FUELS HAVE
OCCURRED IN THE PAST WEEK AND SNOW COVER IS LIMITED TO THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6,000 FEET, SO THE FOCUS FOR FIRE DANGER WILL BE
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. BREEZY WINDS AND GOOD BOUNDARY MIXING WILL
RESULT IN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE VENTILATION OVER THE WEEKEND.
RH WILL RECOVER SOMEWHAT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
WEAK UPPER LOW PASSES BY ON MONDAY AND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE FIRE DANGER AS WELL AS
ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN. ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WED/THURS OVER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, THOUGH RAIN/SNOW TOTALS
WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 38 72 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 39 69 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 33 69 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 35 68 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 26 45 26 42 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 32 69 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 32 58 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 26 68 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 26 66 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 40 71 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 29 71 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 36 75 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 36 64 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 38 73 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 33 69 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 68 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 32 67 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 31 69 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 33 70 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 35 68 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 30 58 31 51 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 27 55 28 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 25 54 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 20 60 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 30 65 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 29 68 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 24 58 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 25 61 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 27 65 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 30 59 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 31 62 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 25 69 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 27 68 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 33 69 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 34 63 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ111.
TX...NONE.
30-DENNHARDT/35-DELIZIO/29-CRESPO
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