129
FXUS64 KEPZ 021735
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1035 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1029 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS, DAILY WARMING, AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON BREEZES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- A MINOR STORM SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH EARLY THURSDAY.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAIN
ZONES WITH ELSEWHERE STAYING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER.
- DRY CONDITIONS, TYPICAL BREEZES, AND DAILY WARMING RETURN FOR
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ATTEMPTING TO
CARVE ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN INTO
TONIGHT AS IT SWINGS TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY
MODERATED TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
BORDERLAND, ALONGSIDE INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS.
THE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO NORTHERN AZ LATE WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING
A GLANCING BLOW TO SOUTHERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BE LOCALIZED WELL TO OUR NORTH,
BUT MAY STILL DELIVER SOME SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES TO THE GILA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO DIG FURTHER SOUTH
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN FAVORING THE SACRAMENTO MTS. LESS THAN 1 INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTS. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE DECENTLY REDUCED COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY'S
READINGS, WITH EASTERN ZONES SEEING 5F TO 10F OF COOLING AND
WESTERN ZONES SEEING 4F TO 7F OF COOLING.
THE SYSTEM WILL BROADEN AND EJECT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY,
LEAVING A REGIME OF NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE BORDERLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY--ESPECIALLY OUT EAST--BUT WILL
STILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OUR WEST, BRINGING ALL LOCALES 5F TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
ANOTHER DRY SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A SMALL SHOT OF COOLING EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT OTHERWISE NO IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH TYPICAL AFTN BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
LOW FIRE DANGER AS MIN RH VALUES STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WITH 20 FOOT WINDS STAYING BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS (GENERALLY LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY). DRY WEATHER PERSISTS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING,
A QUICK PASSING SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW END CHANCES FOR LOWLAND RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
NOT IMPACTFUL. FRIDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE VERY QUIET WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
BUT WILL BECOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 44 66 43 59 / 0 0 0 10
SIERRA BLANCA 38 64 35 54 / 0 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 35 60 36 54 / 0 0 0 10
ALAMOGORDO 37 61 34 54 / 0 0 20 10
CLOUDCROFT 27 40 22 35 / 0 0 30 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 59 33 52 / 0 0 10 10
SILVER CITY 32 52 30 51 / 0 0 10 10
DEMING 34 63 35 57 / 0 0 0 10
LORDSBURG 32 60 31 56 / 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 65 44 58 / 0 0 0 10
DELL CITY 35 66 33 54 / 0 0 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 42 71 41 63 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 40 58 36 51 / 0 0 10 10
FABENS 41 68 41 61 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 38 63 39 57 / 0 0 0 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 43 63 41 56 / 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 31 60 31 54 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 34 63 35 57 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 40 66 40 59 / 0 0 0 10
OROGRANDE 35 60 35 54 / 0 0 10 10
MAYHILL 32 53 23 47 / 0 0 30 10
MESCALERO 29 51 25 45 / 0 0 40 10
TIMBERON 27 49 23 43 / 0 0 20 10
WINSTON 24 52 20 48 / 0 0 10 10
HILLSBORO 34 59 31 52 / 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 30 60 30 53 / 0 0 10 10
LAKE ROBERTS 26 51 22 50 / 0 0 20 10
HURLEY 31 55 29 52 / 0 0 10 10
CLIFF 26 58 22 57 / 0 0 10 10
MULE CREEK 24 54 21 52 / 0 0 20 10
FAYWOOD 34 55 32 51 / 0 0 10 10
ANIMAS 34 63 34 58 / 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 34 62 33 57 / 0 0 0 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 40 63 36 59 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVERDALE 38 57 37 54 / 0 0 10 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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