272
FXUS64 KEPZ 010521
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1021 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS, GENTLE WARMING, AND AFTERNOON BREEZES THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
- A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF LOWLAND RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO THURSDAY.
- DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN GOING INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
SOME MINOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES DURING THE DAY
4/5 PERIOD. SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE, IF ANY WEATHER IMPACTS
EXPECTED. ALL IN ALL, GENERALLY QUIET AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND LOW-END CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
ON MONDAY (DAY 1), THE FIRST TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND REGION. THAT SAID, THE EAST WINDS WE SAW ON
SUNDAY WILL VEER TO THE WEST, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
SLIGHTLY BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR DECEMBER
1ST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE DESERT
LOWLANDS. THE WESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE DESERT SW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (DAY 2 & 3) LEADING TO LIGHT
AFTERNOON BREEZES AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR EL PASO
PROPER WILL STAY CLEAR OF DROPPING BELOW FREEZING, WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S.
BY THURSDAY (DAY 4), THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES VICINITY.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODEL/ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO HOW DEEP/STRONG THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BE, ALONG WITH EXACT TRACK AND TIMING. 30.18 GFS GUIDANCE HAS
SAID SYSTEM SLIGHTLY STRONG, WITH MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. 30.12
ECMWF GUIDANCE IS NOT AS BULLISH IN TERMS OF STRENGTH, ALONG WITH
BEING MORE PROGRESS AND NOT HAVING AS MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THAT BEING SAID, LOOKING AT GFS/ECMWF RESPECTED ENSEMBLE SUITES,
ALONG WITH NBM GUIDANCE, PROBABILITIES OF SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION (>/= 0.01") IS LOW (20-40 PERCENT) ACROSS THE DESERT
LOWLANDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR. AREAS NORTH, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION
DURING THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME WITH GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS. LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE ABOVE 7500 FT WHERE LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. NBM PROBS SHOW 20-
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF > 1.0" OF SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER, THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TRACK REMAINS TO THE NORTH OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES SKC TO FEW250 WILL BECOMING
SKC AREAWIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIMEFRAME. WINDS
LIGHT 3-7 KNOTS AND VRB THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING W/NW DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT 8-13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
DRY WITH SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE WINDIEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL AND RH'S
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
BUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS IN QUESTION. VENT RATES
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 65 38 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 31 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 60 31 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 30 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 37 21 40 28 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 57 31 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 55 31 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 63 32 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 60 32 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 39 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 65 27 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 69 36 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 57 34 58 40 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 66 34 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 62 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 38 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 59 28 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 62 28 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 65 36 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 58 29 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 51 25 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 48 23 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 48 23 49 28 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 52 23 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 58 31 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 57 26 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 54 26 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 57 30 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 61 28 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 56 27 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 57 33 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 62 33 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 61 31 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 35 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 57 38 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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