937
FXUS64 KEPZ 220455
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
955 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 955 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
- FAIR AND DRY WEATHER SATURDAY, WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, MOSTLY LIGHT, SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. LIGHT SNOW
ABOVE 8000 FT.
- DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LEADING TO THANKSGIVING
DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS THE UPPER LOW STILL SITTING WELL OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA COAST. WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT IS THE SUB-TROPICAL JET
WITH THIN WISP OF LAYERED MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO HAVE TURNED THE CORNER AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. BY THE TIME THE LOW
REACHES FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY EVENING, ENOUGH MOISTURE
(PWS APPROACHING .50 INCH) MOVES INTO THE WEST TO SUPPORT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS, MAINLY WEST OF THE RG VALLEY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. LIKELY
DRY-SLOTTING WILL QUICKLY END ANY CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF ZONES SUNDAY MORNING, BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. AND THE MODELS SHOW A
LAGGING SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, WHICH
HAS MOVED TO COLORADO, SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD KEEP A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE GILA/BLACK RANGE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH, 8000 FT OR HIGHER, THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WINDOW.
THESE ELEVATIONS COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AHEAD...THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS THE
REGION AND UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEFORE FLATTENING OUT ZONALLY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THIS MEANS MOSTLY
CLOUD FREE DAYS, UNTIL ZONAL FLOW LIKELY BRINGS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA THURSDAY-FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ANOTHER PACIFIC
SYSTEM AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT
GIVEN HOW FAR OUT WE STILL ARE FROM NEXT WEEKEND. SYSTEM LIKELY TO
SPILL SOME CANADIAN COLD AIR DOWN, BUT ECMWF SNOW LEVELS (WBZ
TEMPS) LOOK TOO LOW AT 4500-5000 FT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250, WITH OCNL
BKN250 AFTER 12Z. SURFACE WINDS EAST/NORTHEAST AOB 7 KNOTS,
BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST 8-12G20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
THE AREA SITS BETWEEN PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS, WITH OUR LAST ONE
HAVING MOVED OUT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, AND OUR NEXT ONE DUE
SATURDAY EVENING. THUS, FOR TODAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY, THE REGION
WILL SEE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TONIGHT, AFTER A SUNNY DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A BIT ABOVE THE DAILY AVERAGE, AND RH WILL CREEP LOWER, BUT
REMAIN WELL ABOVE ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLD. TONIGHT THE CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE WEST, AS THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO WORK EAST OUT OF SCAL. FOR SATURDAY, THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL HOLD WEST OVER AZ,
AND OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA, AND INCREASE TO BREEZY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERNIGHT, WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE EAST, SIMILAR TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
WE EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION FROM THE SYSTEM TO MOVE OVER
WESTERN NM IN THE EVENING HOURS SATURDAY, FROM THE WEST. OTHER
SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS, WILL WORK IN OVER S CENTRAL
AREAS OVER THE LATE EVENING HOURS, FROM THE SW. THE SWEEP SPOT FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DURING THAT TIME, EXPECT RAIN BELOW 7500 FT (UP TO
1/3"), AND SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO 7500-8000 FT, WITH LIGHT
AMOUNTS, UP TO 2-4" ABOVE 9500 FT.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE SYSTEM EXITS, AS IT LIFTS TO THE NE AND INTO
COLORADO. WE WILL SEE A DRY AIR REGIME RETURN ON COOL NW FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE WORK WEEK AHEAD SHOULD STAY DRY ALL WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT, AND RH WILL STAY ABOVE 25 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON, WITH GOOD
TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY, DESPITE THE DRY CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 70 50 67 45 / 0 0 0 20
SIERRA BLANCA 67 46 66 37 / 0 0 0 20
LAS CRUCES 65 43 61 36 / 0 0 0 50
ALAMOGORDO 65 37 62 30 / 0 0 0 50
CLOUDCROFT 49 30 41 24 / 0 0 0 50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 42 59 38 / 0 0 0 70
SILVER CITY 59 38 50 33 / 0 0 0 60
DEMING 67 42 62 37 / 0 0 0 60
LORDSBURG 64 41 58 35 / 0 0 0 70
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 50 65 44 / 0 0 0 20
DELL CITY 68 45 68 36 / 0 0 0 20
FORT HANCOCK 75 50 72 41 / 0 0 0 10
LOMA LINDA 62 45 59 38 / 0 0 0 20
FABENS 72 48 68 40 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA TERESA 67 46 63 40 / 0 0 0 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 67 49 63 42 / 0 0 0 30
JORNADA RANGE 66 35 61 29 / 0 0 0 50
HATCH 68 35 64 31 / 0 0 0 60
COLUMBUS 68 44 65 41 / 0 0 0 40
OROGRANDE 66 38 62 30 / 0 0 0 30
MAYHILL 58 34 53 30 / 0 0 0 50
MESCALERO 61 34 52 27 / 0 0 0 60
TIMBERON 56 34 49 26 / 0 0 0 40
WINSTON 56 32 52 29 / 0 0 0 70
HILLSBORO 62 40 58 34 / 0 0 0 60
SPACEPORT 64 32 60 27 / 0 0 0 60
LAKE ROBERTS 60 29 50 26 / 0 0 0 70
HURLEY 62 37 54 33 / 0 0 0 50
CLIFF 67 30 57 28 / 0 0 0 60
MULE CREEK 63 28 52 24 / 0 0 10 80
FAYWOOD 60 40 54 35 / 0 0 0 70
ANIMAS 64 42 59 37 / 0 0 0 70
HACHITA 64 39 59 35 / 0 0 0 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 40 60 34 / 0 0 0 40
CLOVERDALE 60 42 52 37 / 0 0 0 70
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page