614
FXUS64 KEPZ 241220
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
520 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 508 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
- DRY WEATHER, WITH FEW CLOUDS, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TODAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK,
INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.
- WE WILL SEE A COOLING TREND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 859 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US WIND AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING IS QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO
OUR NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE WE WILL SEE A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP US DRY WITH A
SLOW WARMING TREND. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THEN FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE OF NEW MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP US DRY AND ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO GET ORGANIZED JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST. WE WILL SEE A SLOW COOLING TREND AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND SO THAT BY NEXT SUNDAY OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST, THE
EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LOWLAND RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOR THE START OF DECEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. NO CIGS, NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS, LIGHT WINDS FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 508 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
A WEEK OF FAIR, BENIGN, DRY, AND MILD CONDITIONS AS WE SIT UNDER A
DEEP NW FLOW PATTERN TO START THE WEEK, THAT WILL TRANSITION TO A
BROAD RIDING PATTER ALOFT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP
UPWARD, AND RISE TO 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE DAILY AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH PERIODS OF
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK). RH WILL BE
GOOD AND BETTER FOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES, AND TRIM DOWN INTO THE
20-25 PERCENT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOONS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. WINDS WILL FAVOR LIGHT, WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
BREEZES. EXPECT MOSTLY SW TO W WINDS, WITH A PERIOD OF E AND NE
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH A MINOR FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NO CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO DIVE S ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WESTERN U.S. AND ARRIVE OVER OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE
RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL THEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 40 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 63 35 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 64 33 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 64 32 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 47 22 45 28 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 35 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 61 34 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 67 34 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 63 33 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 65 41 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 67 32 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 70 37 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 36 58 40 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 67 38 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 65 35 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 40 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 65 30 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 67 30 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 67 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 62 33 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 61 25 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 58 25 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 56 23 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 59 26 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 63 35 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 62 28 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 62 28 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 62 32 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 66 30 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 63 30 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 61 35 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 65 32 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 64 33 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 32 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 62 38 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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