591
FXUS64 KEPZ 081702
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1002 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1002 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS, TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES, AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE SOME RIDGING MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK SURFACE
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO EAST WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY OVER THE LOWLANDS AND LIKE
LAST NIGHT, DROP BELOW GUIDANCE. LOWERED HIGHS ABOUT 2-5 DEGREES,
HIGHER IN HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. COULD HAVE
ANOTHER COUPLE NIGHTS WITH A WARMER LOW IN CLOUDCROFT THAN MOST OF
THE LOWLAND AREAS.
GOING INTO THU/FRI, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT THE SURFACE
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR RECORDS WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
EXPECTED FOR THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE RISE IN DEW
POINTS AND WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP
AS MUCH AS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME BOUNCING AROUND WITH THE MODELS AS TO HOW THEY
HANDLE POSSIBLE BACK DOOR ASSOCIATED WITH 1040+MB HIGH DROPPING
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EC AND GFS ON 00Z/06Z RUNS
BACKED OFF ON THIS FRONT REALLY EVEN GETTING INTO THE CWA. THE
LATEST GFS RUN IS BRINGING IT IN SAT NIGHT AND DROPPING HIGHS
ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES FOR SUN. EC AI ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THIS
BUILDING IN OF THE HIGH FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT WE FEEL IT'S EFFECTS.
THERE IS A SMALL DOWNTREND SHOWING UP IN THE NBM TEMPS GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT MODEL TRENDS ARE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
P6SM SKC-FEW250 THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER
08KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
WARM AND DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL BE THE STORY FOR THIS
WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND WARM TO 10-15 ABOVE NORMAL BY THU/FRI. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALLOW MIN RH'S TO DROP INTO THE 15-25% RANGE DAILY
BUT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, MAYBE AN OCCASIONAL BREEZY DAY IN
THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG MORNING INVERSIONS WILL KEEP
VENT RATES POOR TO FAIR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 32 68 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 39 64 44 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 31 65 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 26 65 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 30 51 37 48 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 29 64 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 33 64 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 29 68 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 28 66 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 31 66 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 25 67 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 29 71 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 34 60 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 28 68 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 30 66 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 35 67 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 21 65 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 29 69 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 30 68 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 29 63 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 28 63 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 25 58 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 22 58 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 21 65 25 66 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 34 67 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 27 64 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 15 65 22 66 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 25 66 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 20 67 26 68 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 17 64 24 65 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 30 66 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 27 68 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 26 67 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 30 68 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 36 66 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
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