882
FXUS64 KEPZ 211112
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
512 AM MDT SUN OCT 21 2018
SYNOPSIS
WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND MONDAY, THEN WE
WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. WE WILL DRY
OUT AND WARM UP A LITTLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NEXT WEEKEND IS
LOOKING DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BECAUSE THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THAT
OUR SURFACE WINDS, THOUGH STILL FROM THE EAST, WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY. THE MAIN PLAYERS IN OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, OUR EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND THE MOISTURE
THAT IS LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
HAD THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST GRABBING SOME OF THAT
MOISTURE AND PULLING IT UP INTO OUR REGION TO GIVE US A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY, BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING
THAT THE LOW WON'T BE ABLE TO GRAB AS MUCH MOISTURE AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, SO I HAVE TRIMMED BACK, BUT NOT ELIMINATED, OUR RAIN
CHANCES FOR TODAY. WE MAY EVEN HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY THE SAME FOR
MONDAY, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. ON TUESDAY, THINGS GET A LITTLE INTERESTING. THE
CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST WILL OPEN INTO A PRETTY SHARP TROUGH AND
BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME THE TROUGH IS ABLE TO
TAP INTO THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL HELP
GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
ALSO, WITH THE EAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT, WE WILL SEE SOME GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WHICH MAY LEAD TO A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN YOUR GARDEN
VARIETY STORMS.
ON WEDNESDAY THE GFS INDICATES THAT SOME OF THE TROUGH'S ENERGY
WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE ECMWF MOVES THE TROUGH EAST
AND BEGINS TO BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST
WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP US DRY. FOR NOW I HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN
CHANCES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY, BUT I'M NOT YET READY TO PULL THEM
COMPLETELY FROM THE FORECAST. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
BUILDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S., WHICH
SHOULD HELP KEEP US HIGH AND DRY.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, OUR HIGHS TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND EAST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. ON MONDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT, WE WILL
SEE OUR HIGHS ONLY RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. BUT
THEN ON TUESDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN, WE WILL SEE OUR
HIGHS RUNNING 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THEN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
AND WE SLOWLY DRY OUT, WE WILL SEE OUR HIGHS CREEP HIGHER EACH
DAY SO THAT BY THE WEEKEND, OUR HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
AVIATION
VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW CLOUDS
HAVE AGAIN RETURNED THIS MORNING, AND LIKE YESTERDAY WE WILL SEE
OUR CEILINGS SLOWLY RISE AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. THE CEILINGS
WILL START OUT BKN-OVC050 THIS MORNING, BUT BY THE EARLY EVENING
THEY WILL RAISE TO SOMETHING LIKE BKN100. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. WE COULD SEE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
AZ/NM BORDER. OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST, BUT NOT
AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND MONDAY.
WE MAY EVEN HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY, THEN WE WILL SEE A DRYING AND SLOW
WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN
COME AROUND TO THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS
WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. OUR MIN RH'S
WILL STAY ABOVE 40% THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THEN AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN, WE WILL SEE MIN RH'S IN THE 30'S FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 52 73 56 / 20 0 0 40
SIERRA BLANCA 64 49 70 51 / 20 0 0 20
LAS CRUCES 66 49 70 52 / 20 0 0 40
ALAMOGORDO 66 49 70 52 / 20 0 0 30
CLOUDCROFT 51 40 55 38 / 30 0 0 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 67 49 70 52 / 20 0 0 40
SILVER CITY 65 45 66 47 / 20 20 20 60
DEMING 67 50 70 53 / 20 0 0 40
LORDSBURG 71 50 71 52 / 20 10 10 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 52 71 55 / 20 0 0 40
DELL CITY 66 50 72 53 / 20 0 0 20
FORT HANCOCK 70 53 75 55 / 20 0 0 30
LOMA LINDA 62 47 69 51 / 20 0 0 30
FABENS 69 52 74 55 / 20 0 0 30
SANTA TERESA 67 51 71 54 / 20 0 0 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 65 50 71 54 / 20 0 0 40
JORNADA RANGE 65 50 70 53 / 20 0 0 40
HATCH 68 50 71 53 / 20 0 0 40
COLUMBUS 68 50 70 53 / 20 0 0 40
OROGRANDE 66 50 71 54 / 20 0 0 30
MAYHILL 55 41 64 41 / 30 0 0 40
MESCALERO 57 42 63 42 / 30 0 0 40
TIMBERON 56 42 62 43 / 30 0 0 40
WINSTON 63 41 65 43 / 20 10 20 50
HILLSBORO 64 46 69 48 / 20 0 0 50
SPACEPORT 65 49 70 51 / 20 0 0 40
LAKE ROBERTS 67 41 67 43 / 30 20 20 60
HURLEY 65 46 67 48 / 20 10 10 60
CLIFF 74 46 72 48 / 30 10 10 60
MULE CREEK 72 47 69 48 / 30 10 20 60
FAYWOOD 64 47 67 49 / 20 10 10 60
ANIMAS 72 50 70 52 / 20 10 20 50
HACHITA 69 48 70 51 / 20 10 10 50
ANTELOPE WELLS 72 49 70 51 / 20 10 20 50
CLOVERDALE 71 49 72 51 / 20 20 20 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
BRICE
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