539
FXUS64 KEWX 280005 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
705 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE EVENING STORMS VAL VERDE MONDAY
WITH MUGGY, UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT A VERY MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS NOT
DROPPING BELOW 70 DEGREES AND NO RAIN OR STORMS EXPECTED.EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING VAL VERDE COUNTY WHERE SPC
CURRENTLY HAS A 1 OF 5 RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TIMING OF THIS LOOKS TO BE MONDAY EVENING.
SOME MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU HOWEVER ACCUMULATION'S LOOK MINIMAL AS THESE LOOK TO BE
PRETTY SHORT LIVED. HIGHS MONDAY RANGE FORM THE MID 90S WEST TO LOW
90S EAST WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 70 AREAWIDE WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM, HUMID, AND ACTIVE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
STORMS ARRIVING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
ON TUESDAY, MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY PIVOT EASTWARD, ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CWA. ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TRANSLATE EAST, A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN UP OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PERHAPS AS FAR
EAST AS THE HILL COUNTRY. FOR NOW, SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK ONLY HIGHLIGHTS
PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE COUNTY IN A MARGINAL RISK, BUT WOULD EXPECT
EITHER THAT OR THE DAY 4 TO INCLUDE SOME SORT OF MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF
5) RISK FOR PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN CWA. ANY STORMS THAT FORM OVER
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OR HILL COUNTRY WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST AS THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST. ANY STORM SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR
AREA BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, OUR PROGRESSIVE AND STORMY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
SENDING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY-
NEXT WEEKEND. WITH IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND PROPER VENTILATION
OF STORMS, A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT COULD DEVELOP LATE WEEK IF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INDICATED BY FORECAST MODELS CAN GET HUNG UP OVER
THE EWX CWA. AT THIS DISTANCE, WE WILL REMAIN OPTIMISTIC BUT ALSO
REALISTIC IN EVALUATING ANY HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. AFTER THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, WE TURN OUR
ATTENTION TO A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INLAND OVER THE WEST
COAST WHICH COULD BRING EVEN MORE STORMY WEATHER TO OUR REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2025
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF DRT, BUT
RADAR DATA SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND AS THESE CELLS MOVES OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AS
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT AND WE WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE. CIGS GRADUALLY
RISE BACK TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOUTH WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 90 70 89 / 0 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 90 70 88 / 0 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 90 70 89 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 87 68 86 / 0 0 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 95 72 92 / 10 10 30 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 89 70 88 / 0 0 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 92 68 90 / 0 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 89 69 88 / 0 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 90 70 89 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 71 90 / 0 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...PLATT
LONG-TERM...TRAN
AVIATION...PLATT
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