254
FXUS64 KEWX 200038
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
738 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TO RETREAT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO
MOST AREAS; LIGHT SHOWERS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
90/I-10.
- RAIN AND STORMS TO REBOUND NORTH AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN LIKELY MONDAY AND LIKELY AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE AREA TUESDAY.
- COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND A WARMING TREND FOR LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ONGOING SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10/HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR. WITH
WINDS SWINGING BACK AROUND OUT OF THE EAST AND EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BY TOMORROW MORNING, AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL OVERRUNNING AND DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INITIALLY LATE TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL
COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE QPF FORECAST MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS
BUT EVEN THE HREF PMM 24 HOUR ACCUMULATION CALLS FOR BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REGION MONDAY. DESPITE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND LITTLE SUNSHINE,
WE MAY HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY
TOWARDS EVENING OVER THE RIO GRANDE.
ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH NO BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AND OUR OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT TYPE
PATTERN CONTINUING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE, PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT WEST, LIMITING RAIN POTENTIAL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. |
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE LAST BIT OF RAIN WITH THIS EVENT AS RAINS
PUSH EAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE "QUIETER" HOWEVER, THERE
IS STILL A LOW END CHANCE FOR SOME RAINS BOTH DAYS AS WEAK ZONAL
FLOW AND SUBTLETIES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD RESULT IN SOME
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND WEAK SHOWERS. THE WEEKEND LOOKS ACTIVE ONCE
AGAIN AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
RAMPS UP. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY
GIVEN THE SETUP IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS AND
THEREFORE LOWER CIG HEIGHTS OVER DRT BY LATE EVENING AND AT
SSF/SAT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP WITH PRIOR ISSUED
TAF TIMING ON LOWERINGS INTO MVFR AS THIS IS, ALONG WITH THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE, A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE MOS GUIDANCES,
AND RIGHTFULLY SO. DRT/SAT/SSF, COULD ALL DROP INTO IFR SKIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK, GIVEN THAT MODEL DATA SHOWS AREAS A
PRECIPITATION MOST OF THE NIGHT. AT AUS, ONLY INTERMITTENT LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT, SO IT MAY TAKE LONGER
FOR THE CIGS TO LOWER. BY DAYBREAK, ALL AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO
LOWER INTO IFR, AND WE MAY OPT TO SPEED UP THE LOWERINGS BASED
ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS. DRT'S WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF
RETURN FLOW, BUT A NE/ENE BREEZE IS EXPECTED AT THE OTHER 3 TAF
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 56 66 57 71 / 30 50 70 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 65 57 70 / 30 60 70 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 54 65 57 72 / 40 70 70 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 62 55 68 / 30 60 70 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 62 59 77 / 60 60 50 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 54 64 56 67 / 20 50 70 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 51 62 57 72 / 60 70 70 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 65 57 71 / 40 70 70 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 56 68 59 72 / 30 50 60 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 64 58 72 / 50 70 70 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 56 64 59 73 / 50 70 70 70
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...18
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