172
FXUS64 KEWX 071844
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
144 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT LOW END
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDLESS SKIES ENCOMPASSING NEARLY OUR
ENTIRE CWA, AS SUB-1 INCH PW AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. WEAK FLOW WILL KEEP THIS DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SHAPE RELATIVELY CRISP
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S FOR MOST. ON
THURSDAY, THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA AND TROPICAL
STORM ISAIAS IN THE GULF WILL CHANNEL WEAK EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH MODELS DEPICTING A MODEST 5-DEGREE INCREASE
IN 0-3 KM DEW POINTS. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THIS MOISTURE, BUT THE MOISTURE RETURN AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE
WEAK AND THERE LIKELY WON'T BE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW LOCALIZED
FLEETING SHOWERS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
LATE IN THE WEEK, TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO STAY QUITE
DISTANT FROM OUR AREA, AND DIRECT IMPACTS TO OUR AREA WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE. THOSE WITH WEEKEND PLANS FOR THE TEXAS COAST SHOULD
REFER TO INFORMATION FROM OUR NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES (CRP, HGX, AND
BRO) FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING THE RISK OF HIGHER TIDES AND RIP
CURRENTS.
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL STAY WITHIN THE DRY ENVELOPE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH INTO WEEKEND, KEEPING CONDITIONS STABLE AND DRY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM, IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S,
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
BY LATE SUNDAY, THE TROUGH WILL CLEAR OUR AREA, OPENING THE DOOR FOR
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS IS FORECAST TO RAISE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AS MUGGIER GULF AIR
RETURNS, WHILE HIGHS COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT INCREASES INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S AS WARMER MEXICAN PLATEAU AIR TAKES THE PLACE OF THE
OUTGOING TROUGH. THIS PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION, AND THUS THE FORECAST FEATURES ISOLATED CHANCES (10 TO
30 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST, A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONTRIBUTING TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR
AREA. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-E IN THE PACIFIC EVENTUALLY BEING CAUGHT UP IN
THIS FLOW, BUT WHETHER THIS COULD IMPLICATE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDS ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM TRACKS MORE WEST AND
MISSES OUR AREA ENTIRELY, OR IF PLACEMENT FARTHER EAST ALLOWS
MOISTURE TO DIFFUSE INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
PLACE THE MOISTURE PLUME WEST OF OUR REGION. RIDGING IS FAVORED TO
STAY OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR TO WARMER THAN AVERAGE DURING THAT PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG I-35
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT DRT. SKIES
GENERALLY REMAIN CLEAR AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 08/15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 92 69 90 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 92 68 90 / 0 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 91 69 88 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 88 67 86 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 90 67 88 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 64 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 92 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 95 67 92 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 91 70 89 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 92 71 91 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...PLATT
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