930
FXUS64 KEWX 070549
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1249 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
- LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LABOR DAY.
- DAILY SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE COASTAL PLAINS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- HUMID CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PEAK HEAT
INDICES CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
THE 500MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS
EVENING. EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS AS JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE HAVE MADE IT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WE WILL GET ONE MORE DAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN IT WAS SUNDAY. WE'LL CARRY ABOUT 20-30%
POPS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN OVERALL
LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAIN. WHILE THE RRFS IS MORE OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY, THE HRRR, FV3, AND NAM 3KM HAVE SEABREEZE CONVECTION OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS. IN ANY MATTER, COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND IT SHOULDN'T HAMPER PLANS TOO MUCH FOR THE HOLIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S. WITH ADDED MOISTURE IN THE AIR, IT'LL FEEL
EVEN HOTTER AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS HEAT INDICES CLIMB INTO
THE 100-16 RANGE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
THE LONG TERM DOESN'T LOOK MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE SHORT TERM AS
HOT, MOSTLY DRY, AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE SECOND
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO HINT AT A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, THIS DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT
WILL COOL THINGS OFF MUCH, HOWEVER, FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, BUT THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT SOME SORT OF MORE EFFECTIVE
PATTERN CHANGE MAY BE IN ORDER TOWARDS THE 3RD WEEKEND OF THE
MONTH. WE WILL HOLD OUT HOPE FOR THIS CHANGE AS THE HEAT HASN'T
LET UP SINCE EARLY AUGUST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED FOR AREAS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND COASTAL PLAINS AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP OUT MENTIONING
ACTIVITY OVER THE I-35 SITES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING AND THEN PREVAILING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 KNOTS OR SO AT
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 77 100 77 / 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 98 77 99 77 / 20 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 98 76 99 76 / 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 97 75 / 20 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 77 98 77 / 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 98 76 100 76 / 20 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 97 77 98 77 / 20 0 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 78 99 78 / 20 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 100 78 101 78 / 10 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...17
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