019
FXUS64 KEWX 250617
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
117 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES POSSIBLE.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT, PRIMARILY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT
CONTINUE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR NOW, THE EXPECTATION IS
FOR THESE OTHER STORMS TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWA AND HAVE LITTLE TO
NO IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LATEST CAMS
ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT THESE STORMS TO OUR NORTH WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THESE COULD MAINTAIN SOME
INTENSITY AS THEY SAG SOUTH, BUT THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL WEAKEN THEM WITH TIME.
MEMORIAL DAY WILL FEATURE WARM CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN, WITH AN SHOT
AT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS AS REMNANT MCV SAGS SOUTH OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z RRFS
AND HRRR ARE ON BOARD WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALONG WITH THE NSSL WRF,
ARW, FV3, AND NAM 3KM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
80S TO MIDDLE 90S UNDER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE START OF ONE MORE STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED LIFT REGION-WIDE ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN PWATS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S WHICH WILL
RESULT IN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. MORE INFORMATION ON THIS STORM SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
BELOW, INCLUDING TIMING OF STORMS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ACTIVE AS STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY, THEN SLIDE SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE REST OF THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN, HOWEVER, STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS GIVEN STEEP ML LAPSE RATES, MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND
ADEQUATE LIFT. HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS SPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS AREA FOR
TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS, THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WPC PLACES A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK (SLIGHT)
FOR BASICALLY ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
BEYOND THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SETTLE
DOWN FOR A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE ACTIVE CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN BY THE
WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, BUT DID ADD A MENTION
OF SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 09Z. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND
SUNRISE, WITH KSAT AND KSSF FAVORED OVER OUR OTHER TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE, EARLIER AND ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH WILL SEND
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP
DEVELOP SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FOR NOW, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIMITED, BUT WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE
TSRA AT KAUS THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 70 89 70 / 20 10 20 90
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 70 89 70 / 20 10 20 90
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 69 87 69 / 20 10 30 90
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 67 86 67 / 30 10 10 90
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 73 89 69 / 0 10 40 70
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 68 88 68 / 30 10 10 90
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 68 86 68 / 10 0 30 90
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 69 88 69 / 20 10 30 90
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 70 88 71 / 20 10 20 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 70 87 69 / 10 10 30 90
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 70 88 69 / 10 0 30 90
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...PLATT
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