544
FXUS64 KEWX 290625
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
125 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- DRY, HOT, AND BREEZY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN BROADLY LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE ROCKIES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF, SO BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH THE 15-20 MPH WINDS AND 20-30 MPH GUSTS IN THE DAYTIME THAT
WE'VE GROWN ACCUSTOMED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. ALPW IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT DRIER LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC AIR IS ON TRACK TO SPREAD OVER THE
AREA TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE AIR TO MIX OUT A LITTLE
MORE, EXCHANGING LOWER DEW POINTS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER DRY-BULB
TEMPERATURES. THUS, FORECAST HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
SLIGHT STEP UP FROM SUNDAY, REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE LOWERED MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING
HEAT INDICES DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. OVER WEST
TEXAS, A DRY LINE INVIGORATED BY A FEW PASSERBY DISTURBANCES ALOFT
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WESTERLY
SHEAR VECTORS SUGGEST A SHOWER OR STORM COULD BRIEFLY WADE INTO
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY LATE IN THE EVENING, BUT WILL LIKELY
FIZZLE QUICKLY UPON ENCOUNTERING STABLER AIR ALOFT.
GOES DUST-ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY HAS DONE A FAIR JOB PICKING UP ON A
MORE CONCENTRATED SWATH OF LOFTED DUST IN THE WESTERN GULF
ACCOMPANYING A PLUME OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SHOULD TRAVERSE OUR REGION TODAY
BEFORE THE BULK OF THE DUST DISPERSES FARTHER NORTH BY TUESDAY.
EXPECT MILKY WHITE SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR A VIVIDLY TINGED
SUNSET/SUNRISE. THE BULK OF THIS DUST IS CONCENTRATED AT AROUND
800MB (ABOUT 5-6 KFT ALTITUDE), THOUGH SOME HAZIER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THIS DUST MIXES DOWN CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE.
SOME MOISTURE WILL START CYCLING BACK FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TOWARDS
OUR AREA ON TUESDAY, THOUGH WE DON'T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL WEATHER HERE WITH THE VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT BALANCING OUT TO PROVIDE PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S. THE ADDED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAINS, BUT THEIR VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH WILL BE STUNTED BY THE RIDGING ALOFT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
LITTLE VARIATION IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEK. TWO
LOBES OF CONNECTED RIDGING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL PREVENT DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE FROM ENTERING OUR AREA. A GRADUAL UPWARDS TREND IN
TEMPERATURES FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IS NOTED IN ENSEMBLES
AS THE AIRMASS STEADILY WARMS UP IN THE SUMMER SUN. DAILY HIGHS
FOR THE WEEK IN THE MID 90S TO UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST WITH
MODERATE CHANCES EACH DAY OF LOCATIONS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE TOPPING
100. PEAK HEAT INDICES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH THE 100-105 RANGE
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY PARKED IN THE
70S, WITH NEAR-AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE TEXAS SUMMER.
A DECLINING TREND IN DAYTIME WINDSPEEDS IS EXPECTED STARTING AROUND
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURES OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US LIFT FARTHER NORTH. BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EBB
AND FLOW DIURNALLY, BUT THE AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL MORE LIKELY BE IN
THE 10-20 MPH RANGE THAN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. RAIN CHANCES COULD BE
HARD TO COME BY THIS WEEK WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT, WITH
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY OTHER THAN A LOW CHANCE THAT A SHOWER OR TWO
REACHES THE COASTAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE-AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF
THE SEABREEZE, OR THAT A STORM COULD BRIEFLY REACH WESTERN VAL VERDE
COUNTY IN THE EVENINGS. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
OF A BREAK IN THE RIDGING AROUND SUNDAY/EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL US TO SLIP THROUGH WITH MORE ROOM FOR RAIN, BUT AT
THIS TIME THOSE CHANCES LOOK LOW WITH THE MOST MODELS SHOWING THE
DOMINANT RIDGING HAVING THE UPPER HAND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
THE BREEZIEST WIND DAY OF THE WEEK HAS FINISHED AND THERE CONTINUES
TO BE GUSTS TO OVER 20 KNOTS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A
SLIGHTLY MORE ONSHORE WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO FEEDING THE STRATUS
FORMATION MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN WAS SEEN THE PRIOR NIGHTS. ALL
I-35 STATIONS REACHED THEIR BKN MVFR STATUS BEFORE 06Z, AND THE
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS LOOP WOULD SUGGEST THAT DRT COULD GET THERE
BEFORE 12Z. SUBTLETIES IN THE WRN CONUS TROUGHING PATTERN MIGHT
SUGGEST THE SURFACE WINDS OVER TX WILL HAVE PEAKED TO SIGNAL
SLIGHTLY LESS WIND GOING INTO THE FOLLOWING 24-30 HOUR PERIOD, BUT
THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS GOING IN THE MIDDAY AND EVENING HOURS. WILL ASSUME A FAIRLY
SIMILAR TREND ON THE RETURN OF LOW STRATUS FOR TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 95 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 74 94 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 93 73 94 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 95 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 93 73 93 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 95 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 94 75 95 / 0 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...18
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