825
FXUS64 KEWX 090519
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
-SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
OUR RAIN CHANCES HAVE DWINDLED FOR SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WE'VE
BEEN WATCHING THE LAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEAKER, OPENING UP LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
NEVERTHELESS, WE WILL STILL CARRY A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. THE UPPER LOW IS RATHER EASY TO PICK OUT ON
GOES-19, CENTERED OVER ALPINE TEXAS ON THIS FRIDAY EVENING. SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW, BUT COVERAGE IS
PRETTY WEAK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, SO
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUED AFTERNOON CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. SATURDAY HAS TRENDED DRIER IN RECENT FORECASTS AND THE NBM
HAS CONTINUED THAT TREND AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 20% POPS
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, BUT SUSPECT MOST WILL REMAIN
DRY.
SUNDAY, THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING AGAIN AS AN IMPRESSIVE
UPSTREAM WAVE SLIDES SOUTH AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE HOTTER DAY OF THE
WEEKEND WITH MORNING CLOUDS EAST, FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH, PUSHING THROUGH ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EVEN STRONGER WITH
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) AND PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY, EDWARDS PLATEAU,
AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST
CONCERNS LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL GROW UPSCALE RATHER QUICKLY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING, AND WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY, HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AGAIN ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THERE
MAY BE A LOW END CHANCE FOR SOME POP UP SHOWERS OR STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
BEYOND MONDAY, A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN AWHILE, WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE WEEK. AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HI-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND A
50 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR CEILINGS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY INTO
THE SAN ANTONIO METRO, THOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO BULLISH
PREVIOUS NIGHTS TO INCLUDE ANY MORE THAN A TEMPO AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE BRIEF CLEAR SKIES EARLIER THIS EVENING, THERE
ARE DECENT CHANCES FOR FOG NEAR THE ESCARPMENT INTO THE SAN ANTONIO
AREA. LOW CEILINGS EVENTUALLY REACH KDRT AROUND 10Z, THEN EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
MAY REACH KSAT/KSSF OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST. DRIER WEATHER IS FAVORED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 89 71 91 68 / 10 0 20 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 88 71 91 68 / 10 0 10 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 69 91 68 / 10 0 0 80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 89 65 / 0 0 30 80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 71 94 69 / 0 0 0 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 70 89 66 / 10 0 20 80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 90 68 / 10 0 0 70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 70 91 68 / 10 0 0 80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 70 89 68 / 20 0 10 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 71 91 69 / 10 0 0 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 71 92 70 / 10 0 0 70
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...27
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