359
FXUS64 KEWX 051138
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
638 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE TX IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT BUMP IN HIGH TEMPS, THERE
SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF AREAS STILL IN THE 90S, BUT MOST TEMPS
AROUND THE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE PUSHING TO TRIPLE DIGITS. NOW
THAT THE H5 RIDGE HAS ADVANCED INTO WEST TX AND THE PANHANDLE, THE
WINDS ALOFT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL BE LESS INFLUENTIAL ON
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. TODAY'S WINDS,
ALTHOUGH A FEW MPH LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAD ON THE 4TH, WILL REMAIN
STEADY ONSHORE AND WILL LIKELY REPLENISH DEW POINTS EACH MORNING, SO
WE DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES, AT
LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME AREAS MAY MIX OUT RH VALUES INTO THE
UPPER 20S WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH 10+ MPH WINDS AND DRY FUELS TO
MAKE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH DAY. WE'RE STILL
SEEING SOME PRE-DAWN LOW STRATUS FORMING ALONG THE ESCARPMENT, BUT
DAILY DRY WEATHER TRENDS COULD MAKE THESE GO AWAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE
RIDGE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA TO POSSIBLY ENHANCE
THE SEABREEZE.
THE HEAT, ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES, AND POSSIBLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN. LOWER LEVEL THICKNESSES
AND 925 TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOW AN INCREASING TREND LEADING TO
EVEN HOTTER HIGH TEMPERATURES. ONLY A FEW PARTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY
MAY AVOID HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100, THOUGH THEY WILL BE CLOSE IN THE
UPPER 90S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RUN UP TO 110. AS SOILS
AND VEGETATION DRY DUE TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND HEAT, MIXING SHOULD
BECOME MORE EFFICIENT. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE WARMING EVEN FURTHER,
ALTHOUGH AT THE SAME TIME LEAD TO LOWER DEWPOINTS. REGARDLESS, HEAT
INDEX VALUES LIKELY REMAIN THE SAME. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PARTS OF OUR AREA DUE TO TEMPERATURES AND/OR HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE
DRYING ALSO ALLOWS AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO LOWER MAKING FOR A
POSSIBLE RETURN OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AS
WINDS PICKUP AND BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY WITH PASSAGE OF THE SEABREEZE
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND
THIS FORECAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE EAST OR A SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. WILL WAIT FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS
BEFORE INTRODUCING POPS. THIS COULD ALSO "COOL" TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
WITH FEWER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AREA, MORE LOW STRATUS AREAS
WERE ABLE TO FORM AT THIS TIME OF MORNING THAN FROM MONDAY. THE CIGS
CONTINUE TO HAVE SEVERAL BREAKS AND SO A SCT V BKN PICTURE SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED IN THE PREVAILING BKN PERIOD THROUGH 15-16Z. WINDS MAY BE
A TAD LIGHTER OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
VERSUS THE SAME TIMES MONDAY, BUT SIMILAR SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY BE
ONGOING OUT AT DRT WHERE THERE MAY STILL BE A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. UNTIL THE TRENDS CHANGE, WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RETURN
OF LOW STRATUS AT AROUND 09Z FOR I-35 TAFS AND 12-13Z FOR DRT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 101 76 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 99 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 101 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 99 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 77 100 78 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 99 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 101 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...OAKS
LONG-TERM...04
AVIATION...OAKS
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