959
FXUS64 KEWX 191103
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
603 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING
MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER OVERCAST SKIES.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH MOST CLIMATE SITES ONCE AGAIN NEARING THEIR RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. BREEZY, HUMID AND HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER THAN
THOSE SEEN MONDAY IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
AREAS EAST BUT RISE FROM 100-107 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA EVIDENT BY LIKELY ONGOING
CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO THEN MAKE ITS WAY WAST TOWARDS THE RIO
GRANDE BEFORE COLLIDING WITH THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEARING THE HILL COUNTRY FROM THE
NORTH OR NORTHWEST IN THE EVENING THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK CONTINUES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE GREATEST
RISK GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND IN THE WEST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN A LINE OR
BROKEN LINE AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE RISK
CONTINUES TO BE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS, THOUGH
POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS. THERE DO REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW QUICKLY THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WPC HIGHLIGHTS A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK FOR
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING FOR A MAJORITY OF OUR AREA INCLUDING THE HILL COUNTRY, I-35
CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND
0.75" TO 1" ARE EXPECTED BUT POCKETS OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
BE IN THE 3-5" RANGE.
MOST STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA NEAR SUNRISE WITH MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE DAY, IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DAILY RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE AREA.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY STILL BE RECOVERING FOR MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY
EVENING BUT A HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS AND STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPING IN WEST TEXAS AND MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WOULD BE FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS VALID ON THURSDAY WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY,
EACH ROUND OF STORMS WILL INFLUENCE THE NEXT DAYS STORM POTENTIAL SO
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR ANY ACTIVITY IS LOW
IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THAT SAID, THE WEEKEND REMAINS ANOTHER
TIME PERIOD TO WATCH AS MODELS INDICATE A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NO REAL DEFINITIVE ENDING TO THIS PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EACH ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO A DEEPER MOISTENING OF SOILS AND
POSSIBLY MORE RUNOFF LATE WEEK AS GROUNDS SATURATE. THE PATTERN MAY
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR MOST AREAS BUT AREAS THAT
RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS AND HIGHER TOTALS WILL LIKELY SEE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING. GIVEN THE
STORM POTENTIAL CAN RELY ON LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS,
ITS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IT IS LIKELY MOST OF, IF NOT ALL, OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL THIS WEEK. CONTINUE TO
CHECK THE FORECAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES FOR THOSE WITH PLANS THIS
WEEKEND FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
AN MCS MOVING ALONG THE COAST HAS STIRRED UP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES FARTHER AWAY, MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS. BEST TIMING FOR
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 72 85 71 / 40 80 30 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 73 85 72 / 30 80 40 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 86 71 / 30 80 40 80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 82 69 / 40 80 30 80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 95 72 89 69 / 30 50 40 100
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 71 83 70 / 40 80 30 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 72 86 70 / 20 80 40 90
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 73 86 72 / 30 80 40 80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 73 86 73 / 30 70 40 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 73 86 72 / 20 80 40 80
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 74 87 72 / 20 80 40 80
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...05
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