383
FXUS64 KEWX 201756
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1256 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CENTRAL PART OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN UP TO 3" POSSIBLE.
- SOGGY MONDAY LIKELY FOR MOST AND FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
- COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND A WARMING TREND FOR LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA AT THIS HOUR WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING
OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA AREAS DRY IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL OVERRUNNING AND DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. MOST
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE
IS VERY MOIST AND AS SUCH THE HREF PMM 24 HOUR QPF IS STILL SHOWING
A WIDE SWATH OF 1-2 INCHES FOR OUR AREA. SO ANY HEAVIER CELLS COULD
CERTAINLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS AS THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS
MANY AREAS REMAIN LOCKED UNDER SHOWERS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WITH
AREAS REMAINING IN THE 50S AND PERHAPS MID 60S. ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SET TO IMPACT
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR AREA HEADING INTO TUESDAY WITH RAIN
COOL AIR AND CAA ONCE AGAIN HELPING TO LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH MOST BARELY HITTING 70 DEGREES. MAIN EXCEPTION
WOULD BE FOR THOSE UNDER A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE RIDGE OUT WEST. AS A
RESULT, AREAS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS CAN EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SOMEWHAT BEFORE A
SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA HELPING TO KICK OFF
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WITH OUR OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC
LIFT TYPE PATTERN CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE FINALLY START
TO DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
CONTINUING TO SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD
FINISH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOST PRECIPITATION FINALLY PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST AND OUT OF OUR AREA. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE A
MUCH DRIER DAYS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS AND WITH IT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP NICELY BACK INTO THE MID 80S
ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY. OUR QUIETER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH OUT WEST BEGINS TO DEEPEN HELPING
TO BRING US BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GIVEN THE SETUP IN
PLACE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
A MESSY WEATHER SITUATION CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
A WIDELY VARIED MIX OF LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS. A LARGE AREA OF RA
WITH ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUES MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF A KERV TO KSSF
LINE. THIS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HI-RES MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE THE AVIATION IMPACTS OF THIS RAIN, SO HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THE BETTER PERFORMING STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE
18Z TAFS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST PRECISION IS LOW.
HOWEVER, A GENERAL LOWERING TREND IN CIGS AND VSBYS IS LIKELY
TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT AN INCREASE IN SOME TSRA MAINLY AFTER 00Z, WITH
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INSERT PROB30S AT KAUS AND KSAT. WHILE THE
OVERALL EXPANSE OF RAIN SHOULD SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST WITH TIME,
IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE SLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 69 63 82 / 80 80 40 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 58 69 63 81 / 80 80 40 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 57 72 63 82 / 80 80 40 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 55 66 60 79 / 90 80 30 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 78 67 83 / 60 10 30 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 57 67 62 80 / 80 80 40 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 71 64 80 / 90 50 40 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 58 70 63 81 / 80 80 40 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 59 72 63 81 / 80 80 40 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 72 65 82 / 80 70 40 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 60 73 65 82 / 80 60 40 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...TRAN
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