511
FXUS64 KEWX 101222
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
722 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 3 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO WESTERN HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT; ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE.
- THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK DECREASES TO LEVEL 1 TO 2 FARTHER EAST
TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR TONIGHT; MAIN SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 TO 2 RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY TONIGHT.
- DRIER WEATHER PATTERN BEYOND WEDNESDAY MORNING; SLIGHTLY COOLER
MIDWEEK BEHIND PACIFIC FRONT THEN WARMER INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
EXTENDED POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. NO CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND A PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME
MOVING INTO TX WILL KEEP THE RADAR ECHOES ACTIVE TODAY, WITH STRONG
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RUNS OF
RAPID REFRESH HINTED AT A STRONG STORM OR TWO LEAKING OUT OF MEXICO
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLIER IN THE DAY, BUT WE THINK THE
PERSISTENT MID CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERY WEATHER SHOULD HOLD THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN CHECK UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. STILL,
AN ISOLATED ELEVATED CLAP OF THUNDER IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THESE LOW "CHANCE" CATEGORY POPS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY BELOW 1/10 INCH.
OUR POPS ARE PERHAPS A BIT GENEROUS FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY AS MOST OF
THE BETTER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA KEEPS THE CAP IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z.
SHORTLY AFTERWARDS THERE COULD BE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ALL
SEVERE WEATHER TYPES BECOMING POSSIBLE FROM SUPERCELL ACTIVITY
INITIALLY, AND THEN SOME BOWING SEGMENTS AS WE GET LATER INTO THE
EVENING. THIS FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR THE BOWING SEGMENTS MEANS THAT
THAT A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES COULD LAST IN TO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS AS STORMS REMAIN INTENSE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. FINALLY, AFTER 3-4 AM OR SO WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE WEAKER
INFLOW SUPPORT FOR THE SQUALL, AND WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A WEAKENED
SQUALL TO REACH THE METRO CITIES WITH A LOW END SEVERE THREAT FOR
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS AN INTERESTING TREND TO BE
MONITORED, HOWEVER, AS THE MODEL RUN TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A BRIEF RE-
DEEPENING OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT CROSSES TX. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
REKINDLE SOME NEW DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE LEADING EDGE,
SO WE CERTAINLY WOOULDN'T WANT TO DOWNPLAY THE SEVERE THREAT OVER
THE I-35 CORRIDOR JUST BECAUSE IT'S NOT AS SEVERE WEATHER PRONE AS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT ON THE RAIN THREAT AREA
BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU COUNTIES AND PARTIALLY
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. WE MIGHT ANTICIPATE A COUPLE AREAS WHERE SOME
SEVERE DISCRETE CELLS MOVED SLOW ENOUGH THAT THE DEVELOPING LINE
TRAINED A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN, TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING. MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOWN IN THE QPF REFLECT A STRONG
SQUALL LINE THAT SLOWLY PICKS UP FORWARD SPEED WHILE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVED TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WITH THE PAST RAIN EVENT ONLY HITTING
IN ISOLATED SPOTS, RUN-OFF ISSUES SHOULD BE MINOR IN THE MOST
POPULATED AREAS. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY HAVE GOTTEN THE BEST DEAL
ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE PAST SYSTEM, THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD THE
HIGHER TOTALS NORTH, WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN FORECAST BORDER THAT COULD MISS OUT ENTIRELY.
A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE SUGGESTED TO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE HIGHWAY 77
CORRIDOR COUNTIES AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES ACTIVITY BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW TRACK HAS EVOLVED TO PASS CLOSER TO OUR
FORECAST AREA AS A DEEPER SYSTEM, AND THAT WILL PROBABLY DELIVER A
FASTER MIX-DOWN OF WESTERLY WINDS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW. THAT
BEING THE CASE, WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE AREAS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST LEAVES NO OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN.
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS LINED UP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS RECOVER TO LEAVE
A FLAT ZONAL PATTERN OVER TX. THERE IS DRY RIDGING OVER MEXICO SO
THE WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL NOT COME WITH THE HUMIDITY
SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. THE HOT AND DRY WEEKEND WEATHER WILL END
WITH A FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO MORE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS KEPT CIGS HIGHER THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, IFR/LIFR HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. THERE COULD A BRIEF
LOWERING JUST AFTER SUNRISE, HOWEVER, WILL KEEP THESE TRENDS UNTIL
CIGS LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR
CIGS RETURN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30S AT KDRT FOR
10/21-11/03Z AND AT THE I-35 SITES FOR 11/08-14Z. S TO SE WINDS 5
TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY NW WITH
PASSAGE OF THE BAND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 64 81 49 / 30 80 60 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 62 81 49 / 30 80 60 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 84 63 82 49 / 30 70 50 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 80 61 79 47 / 40 90 40 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 58 86 53 / 60 90 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 61 79 47 / 40 80 60 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 84 59 82 49 / 30 80 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 63 82 49 / 30 70 60 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 67 79 51 / 20 50 80 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 64 82 51 / 30 80 40 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 65 83 52 / 20 70 40 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...04
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page