799
FXUS64 KEWX 281844
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
144 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 138 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL HEAT PERSISTS INTO MID-WEEK, WITH SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES AND A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
CURRENTLY OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WITH ITS CENTER LOCATED OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVER
SOUTHWEST TX. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR NOW OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
INFLUENCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY. TODAY EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT AND RATHER HUMID DAY FOR OUR AREA WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MOST IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WE COULD SEE HEAT INDICES
WITHIN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE WITH THE INCREASED HUMIDITY AND
PARTY SUNNY SKIES. ADDITIONALLY, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH NEAR US WITH JUST SOME
SPOTTY/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS. TONIGHT EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD WITH MANY REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID
70S OVERNIGHT.
BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THUS SHUNTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA AND PUSHING IT OFF TO THE EAST. AS THIS
HAPPENS LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL HELP TO
BRING IN STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS IN TURN
WILL HELP PULL IN MORE MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF GIVING US A BETTER
SHOT AT RAIN AND STORM CHANCES DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH OUR TYPICAL
SEABREEZE. FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE
COULD START TO SEE RAIN/STORM CHANCES INCREASE AS WE BEGIN TO SEE
THE BEGINNING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AS IT SLOWLY DEEPENS AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO AND ODALYS WILL BE PULLED INTO OUR
AREA IN THE UPPER LEVELS ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING
BROUGHT IN FROM THE GULF. WE COULD SEE PWATS APPROACHING AND EVEN
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. AS SUCH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE TROPICAL
IN NATURE AND CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC CURRENTLY HAS VAL
VERDE AND PARTS OF EDWARDS COUNTIES IN A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY WITH THE RISK SHIFTING EASTWARD AND
INCREASING FURTHER AS WE GET BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE ABOUT THAT
IN THE LONG TERM PORTION BELOW. REGARDING TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY WILL
FEEL VERY HOT AND HUMID WITH MOST SEEING LOW TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS.
WHEN ADDING IN THE INCREASING HUMIDITY IT'L FEEL MORE LIKE 100-107
DEGREES. PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH AND
EXCEED HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEFORE ANY AFTERNOON RAIN/STORMS
OCCUR. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AS THE AREA REMAINS LOCKED UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
THE ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE IS ON TRACK FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE WEEK AND BEYOND. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEK BRINGING A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING PWATS
AROUND 200 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. AS TO BE EXPECTED WITH A STRONG
UPPER LOW, MODELS STILL VARY TO A CERTAIN DEGREE ON ITS PROGRESSION
AND SPEED WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING ITS SLOWER TREND COMPARED TO THE
GFS. WE'RE STARTING TO GET A GLIMPSE INTO HI-RES GUIDANCE AS THIS
EVENT COMES CLOSER GIVING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO HEAVY RAIN IN OUR
AREA BEGINNING MORE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST AND THURSDAY IN
THE EAST.
AHEAD OF AN EXPECTED LINE OF STORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AS MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PERSIST WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEED 100 DEGREES FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON CAPPED UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH A BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME GUSTY WIND OR HAIL AS WELL.
RETURNING TO THE PACIFIC FRONT AND THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT MOVES, HOW FAR IT PROGRESSES,
AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO THE WEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH
MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE AREA. THIS KEEPS MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY
ON DETAILS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD
FALL INTO THE MID 70S AND 80S GIVEN THE RAIN CHANCES AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER. WHILE DETAILS REMAIN BLURRED FOR OUR LATE WEEK SYSTEM,
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENING BEFORE DROPPING DOWN INTO
MVFR AT ALL I-35 TAF SITES AROUND 07/08Z. MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP
FROM THE GULF WILL HELP TO CREATE A DECENT CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT
THUS DROPPING CEILINGS AND LEADING TO RATHER POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS. IT'S POSSIBLE WE WOULD SEE CIGS DETERIORATE FURTHER
INTO IFR BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING THAT IN THIS PACKAGE.
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON (18Z).
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL I-35 SITES. HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THIS
PACKAGE FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED.
FOR KDRT WE ARE EXPECTING MVFR CIGS SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT (AROUND 10/11Z) AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH VFR RETURNING BY 17Z. ADDITIONALLY,
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERYL WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 97 76 96 / 0 20 20 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 96 75 96 / 0 20 20 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 74 96 / 10 30 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 92 74 92 / 0 10 20 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 98 77 97 / 0 0 40 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 75 95 / 0 10 20 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 75 96 / 0 10 20 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 96 74 96 / 10 30 20 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 97 75 97 / 0 20 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 94 77 95 / 10 30 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 95 77 96 / 0 20 20 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...CJM
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