183
FXUS64 KEWX 101106
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
506 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
- A FREEZE IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY, SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING.
- COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY
A BRIEF WARM-UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS PICKED UP EARLIER THIS EVENING,
WITH OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR ESTIMATING SOME 0.5 TO 1.5 INCH AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHERN DEWITT INTO CENTRAL LAVACA COUNTIES. RADAR DATA ALSO
SHOWED SOME SIMILAR ESTIMATES ALONG THE LEE AND WASHINGTON COUNTY
LINE. THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF OUR REGION, BUT MAY
HOLD ON TO SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN LAVACA COUNTY.
DRIER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING. A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD YIELD SOME BRIEF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
(SUSTAINED WINDS 26 MPH) EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND ISOLATED AND FOR NOW WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A THE ISSUANCE OF
A WIND ADVISORY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
AND INCOMING HI-RES GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS
NEEDED. WE DO EXPECT A WINDY DAY ON SATURDAY GIVEN COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO MOST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER, WITH MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S IN THE FORECAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY
MID-EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIGHTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY, WE
EXPECT TO SEE A FREEZE ACROSS THESE AREAS. WE MAY NEED A FREEZE
WARNING FOR VAL VERDE AND KINNEY COUNTIES AS THESE COUNTIES HAVE YET
TO SEE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS SEASON. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE
WARNING FOR NOW AS THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AND THIS WILL HELP
KEEP HIGHS DOWN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
CLOUDS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S EXPECTED. IF SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS MANAGE TO DEVELOP, A FEW SPOTS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
MAY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA GRADUALLY
SLIDES EASTWARD WITH TIME. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY. WE DO EXPECT SOME WEAK LIFT COURTESY OF AN UPPER JET AND
THE CLOSED LOW, SO WILL HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW, BUT DO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO TUESDAY. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS HIGHER OUT WEST NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE, ANY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FAVORED
HERE.
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL PUSH
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHWARD HELPING TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ON
THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO BRIEFLY NUDGE UPWARD A FEW DEGREES. JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, STRONG RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
HELPS DEVELOP NEAR MERIDIONAL FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FROM
CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS PATTERN BEARS
WATCHING AS WE COULD SEE SOME MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES SLIDING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION ROUGHLY A WEEK OR SO AWAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 13 TO 24 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 28 TO 36 KTS DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRY AIR AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. WHILE FIRE DANGER SHOULD MAINLY BE
IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS OF HIGH, THE
INCREASE IN WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL AREAS, BUT
DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 59 37 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 59 36 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 59 36 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 55 32 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 60 33 60 43 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 58 34 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 60 33 62 40 / 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 60 35 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 59 37 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 38 62 43 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 39 62 44 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM....PLATT
AVIATION...04
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