952
FXUS64 KEWX 141105
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
505 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER MOST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS, MOSTLY AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
- RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, MOSTLY LESS THAN
AN INCH.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF
I-35/I-37 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MIDDAY SUNDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE EVENING OVER THE BIG
BEND AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, CLIPPING
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER OVER OUR REGION AND
THE PRIMARY QG-FORCING IS TO THE NORTH, SO FURTHER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS
UNLIKELY.
THE LATEST VWPS FROM THE KDFX/KEWX RADARS SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACCELERATING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. A BROAD, WARM
ADVECTION REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE PUSHES IN, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SPREADING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG/EAST OF I-35 WHERE 0-3 KM
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FAVORED. STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
GREATLY LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THESE INITIAL SHOWERS, WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL OVERCAST FAVORED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY.
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
RED RIVER ARE THEN FORECAST TO DRIVE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING, BEGINNING OVER
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY AFTERNOON, REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR
TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DEPARTING OUR
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES BY ABOUT 10 PM. WHILE PREEXISTING CLOUD
COVER WILL PUT A DAMPER ON INSTABILITY, UPWARDS FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION BY WAY OF COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
ISOLATED AND LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. THIS MAINLY
CONCERNS THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WHICH
SHOULD DEVELOP IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR ABOVE 40 KT). ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
RISK OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT RAMPS
UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING, A TRANSITION TO A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS DEPICTED IN HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY,
SUGGESTING A SHIFT TOWARDS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
SEVERE HAZARD AS STORMS REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THAT FORCING INCREASES FARTHER NORTH, AREAS NORTH OF I-10 HAVE
A GREATER CHANCE OF SEEING A MORE CONGEALED LINE OF STORMS. MODELS
FAVOR MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-10. WE'LL ALSO NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR HOW QUICKLY OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS PUSH
EAST. IF THAT SPREADS EAST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SCHEDULE,
THAT COULD LESSEN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL NORTH OF I-10.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP
EAST, WITH MEAN STORM MOTIONS ABOVE 30 KT. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN
TOTALS. MOST MODELS KEEP AREAL RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1/4 TO 1/2
INCH RANGE FOR AREAS SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SPOTS COULD NOTCH
AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THAT NORTH OF THE
AUSTIN AREA DOWNSHEAR. GIVEN THE MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
RAINS TO THE SOUTH, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90, A FEW SPOTS
COULD MISS OUT ON RAIN ENTIRELY. ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS PASSES, THE
ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUT AN END TO THE RAINS.
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY, LEADING TO A COOLER MORNING WITH LOWS BACK TO THE 50S. A
BRIEF PASSERBY LOBE OF COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND SUNNY SUNDAY, THOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH OF I-10 AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S SOUTH. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY'S STORM SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING THEN EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER THAN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST HIGHS ASCEND INTO THE MID-80S FOR MOST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DAILY CHANCES FOR HIGHS ABOVE 90 ARE 40-70 PERCENT FOR THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND WINTER GARDEN REGIONS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL BLEND. TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
US THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT THE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR AREA LOOKS TO
ENSURE THAT NEXT WEEK'S RUNNING THEMES ARE WARM, DRY, AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
MIX OF LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGS, TEMPOS -R/-SHRA WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS
OF VSBY, AND S-SE WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT. MVFR/VFR CIGS,
SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VSBY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
VFR MOSTLY SKC AND W-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AT KDRT AROUND 18Z AND THE I-35
SITES 22Z-01Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE PACIFIC FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
LAG BEHIND THE 850MB TROUGH ALOFT, LEADING TO WINDS VEERING TO A
WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THIS LEADS TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES OVER THOSE AREAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS UNDERCUT EARLY.
INSTEAD, A WINDOW OF ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE MID-AFTERNOON TO EVENING
ON SATURDAY AS BREEZY AND DRY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.
BREEZY AND DRY WEATHER WILL SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY
ALONG A NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH MORE ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. DRIER AIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, SO ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAYS ARE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 55 73 48 / 90 30 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 55 73 45 / 90 30 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 53 75 46 / 90 20 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 52 71 46 / 90 20 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 56 81 50 / 30 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 54 71 45 / 90 30 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 79 53 80 45 / 80 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 54 75 46 / 90 20 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 55 73 47 / 90 50 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 56 77 49 / 80 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 56 79 49 / 80 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...04
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