199
FXUS64 KEWX 122327 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
627 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION (00Z TAFS)
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
OUR AREA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WITH RIDGES LOCATED BOTH TO OUR WEST, OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND ALSO TO OUR EAST, OVER FLORIDA. THIS ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO
LINGER OVER US SPARKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE
EVIDENCE OF THIS WHEN LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH A CUMULUS
FIELD AND SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ALREADY FORMING ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY VIA RADAR. WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASED
DAYTIME HEATING. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH PWAT
VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 - 1.8 SO ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO GET
GOING COULD BE QUITE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ADDITIONALLY,
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS AND INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS.
LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FIRING OFF
OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WITH MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAINS CONTINUING TO SEE
STORM CHANCES AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT AN ALMOST IDENTICAL SETUP FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY DOESNT MOVE MUCH RESULTING IN REPEAT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH WPC HIGHLIGHTING US FOR A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY FOR
MOST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY. DECIDED TO
UPDATE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS NBM GUIDANCE WAS FAR TO LOW.
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY
AFOREMENTIONED LINGERS OVER THE AREA WITH MOST ACTIVITY WANING AFTER
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO
LOW 100S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT DRIER FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS
THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF TRIES TO STRENGTHEN AND
INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE WESTWARD. THIS ALLOWS CONTINUED AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN HALF DUE THE STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW AND ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
FOR FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED EAST
OF I-35 AND THE COASTAL PLAINS DUE TO OUR TYPICAL SEABREEZE AND
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP BACK UP FOR MOST
OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
BY SUNDAY THIS IMPULSE LOOKS TO BE ABSORBED BY SAID RIDGE THUS
SHUTTING OFF ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND
EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS DUE TO THE DAILY SEABREEZE THERE. THE
RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING WESTWARD OVER OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE GLOBAL
MODELS HINT AT MORE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SEASONABLE FOR MID AUGUST
STANDARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S AND HEAT INDICES
REMAINING WARM BUT BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE AREA WITH LOWS
REMAINING IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
THE ONLY MAIN CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE PROB30
FOR -TSRA AT AUS THROUGH 02Z AND TO REMOVE IT ALTOGETHER FROM SAT AND
SSF AS OUTFLOW FROM EARLY STORMS ESSENTIALLY ELIMINATED ANY CHANCE
FOR STORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. RAIN COOLED AIR AND A
STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL MEAN VFR CEILINGS AND VARIABLE YET GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. PROB30S FOR -TSRA
MAY BE UTILIZED YET AGAIN FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM YET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 98 77 99 / 20 30 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 98 76 98 / 10 30 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 75 99 / 10 30 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 94 75 95 / 20 30 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 101 80 102 / 20 20 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 97 76 97 / 20 30 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 75 99 / 10 30 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 75 99 / 10 30 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 96 76 97 / 10 30 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 98 77 99 / 10 30 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 100 78 101 / 10 30 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...CJM
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...MMM
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