778
FXUS64 KEWX 191105
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
605 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TO RETREAT SOUTH TODAY WITH DRY AIR BUILDING INTO MOST
AREAS; LIGHT SHOWERS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90.
- RAIN AND STORMS TO REBOUND NORTH AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH RAIN
LIKELY MONDAY AND LIKELY AGAIN FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA TUESDAY.
- COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
MUCH LOWER IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS THE RAIN AND
THUNDER CHANCES MOVE MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWER COULD CONTINUE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND LOWER COASTAL
PRAIRIES BUT A DRIER AIRMASS INVADES THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND
DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WITH DRY DEWPOINTS MOVING
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY WE'LL SEE SOME CHILLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S
THERE, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE THE COLD AIR LESS EFFECTIVE IN
MOVING SOUTH OF THE ESCARPMENT. TODAY'S HIGHS WILL ALSO BE MODERATED
BY CLOUD COVER WITH OUR COOLEST MAKES POSSIBLY BEING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THERE MIGHT STILL BE RAIN AS WELL.
THIS EVENING THE PATTERN SHIFTS AGAIN AND OVERRUNNING OF THE FRONTAL
INVERSION INCREASES BACK NORTHWARD. INITIALLY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
TX BLOCKS THE MOISTURE RETURN, BUT UPSTREAM TROUGHING WILL BE
EFFECTIVE IN NUDGING THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE EASTWARD BY MONDAY. PRIOR
MODEL RUNS DEPICTED THE FRONT TO BE MORE EFFECTIVE AND MAINTAINING A
DEEP INVERSION INTO MONDAY, BUT THE LATEST RUNS SHOW A WEAKER AND
MORE SHALLOW FRONT THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GOOD OVERRUNNING RAINS.
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER RETURNING TO ALL AREAS, THE HIGHS FOR MONDAY
SHOULD BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS. BEST POST-FRONTAL QPF
AMOUNTS MAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT COULD GENERATE A FEW STRONG
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER 1 INCH. THERE COULD BE A FEW
AREAS, LIKE PANDALE FOR EXAMPLE, THAT WILL NOT SEE ANY MEANINGFUL
RAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD GET AT LEAST 1/4
BETWEEN EARLY THIS MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
AREAS EAST OF I-35 HAVE BEEN HIT AND MISS ON THE RAINS OVER THE LAST
FEW EVENTS, AND THE START OF THIS ONE HASN'T BEEN MUCH DIFFERENT.
TUESDAY COULD BE THE DAY FOR THE MARKET CORRECTION IF THAT MARKET IS
RAIN. SOME OF WPC'S HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ARE SAVED FOR TUESDAY
MORNING FOR AROUND AUSTIN AND INTO MUCH OF THE COASTAL PRAIRIES.
THIS IS PARTLY BECAUSE OF A MORE EASTERLY WIND THAT HASN'T FULLY
BROKEN DOWN THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN AND PARTLY BECAUSE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE SEEING THE RETURN OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT WE DON'T SEE THAT
PRODUCING MUCH QPF, AND THERE COULD BE A CAP THAT SUPPRESSES THIS
BUILT UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY
AFTER A NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY WEDNESDAY.
LATE WEEK RAIN OPPORTUNITIES UNDER A SHALLOW BUT BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE IN LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT WE AT LEAST EXPECT THE HUMIDITY TO BE
THERE. BY NEXT WEEKEND WE COULD SEE A FLATTER ZONAL PATTERN THAT
COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE STORMS, POSSIBLY OF THE DRY-LINE VARIETY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
CEILINGS ARE HOLDING AT VFR HEIGHTS THIS MORNING, AND WE EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN
10 KTS, BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE ALSO BE RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AT THAT TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 56 69 58 / 0 20 50 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 54 68 58 / 10 20 50 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 54 67 57 / 20 40 70 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 53 64 55 / 0 20 50 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 66 54 63 58 / 30 50 50 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 54 67 57 / 0 10 40 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 53 62 57 / 20 50 80 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 54 68 57 / 10 30 60 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 56 71 59 / 20 20 40 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 55 66 59 / 20 50 80 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 56 66 59 / 30 50 80 60
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...05
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