193
FXUS64 KEWX 110017
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
717 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 652 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY DURING THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS ARE DISRUPTING THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY WITH SOME
UNUSUAL FLOW OVER TX. REGARDLESS OF THE WINDS OBSERVED BY REGIONAL
BALLOONS, SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER TX
WITH ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS SOUTH TX. THIS CLOUDINESS
HAS FORMED WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED BACK TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS
WILL BRING MOISTER AIR BACK OVER THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE MORE
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY
KEEP SUNDAY RAIN FREE. SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO SPREAD
OVER MOST OF THE CWA AND ALONG WITH THAT WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INLAND AND TURN THE FLOW OVER TX TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH MOISTURE
IN THE VERTICAL INCREASING, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND I-35 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE HIGHER
HUMIDITY HEAT INDICES WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR MOST OF
THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER, TODAY THEY ARE A BIT DRIER, AND WE HAVE LOWER POPS AND
QPF FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE LOWER RAIN
CHANCES, TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE LOCAL AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THEN, MVFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS INCREASED MOISTURE ARRIVES TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INCLUDING KDRT. THERE ARE
SEVERAL HIRES MODELS SUGGESTING IFR CIGS FOR THE I-35 AIRPORTS AND
EVEN LIFR CIGS FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK. FOR NOW,
I AM GOING WITH MVFR CIGS FOR THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE
DAYBREAK TIME FRAME AND WAIT FOR THE NEXT MODELS CYCLE AND SEE IF
TREND HOLDS TO MAKE CHANGES. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS ALL AREA
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z SUNDAY. THEN, WIND SPEEDS INCREASE
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 93 71 93 / 0 0 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 93 70 94 / 0 0 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 70 93 / 0 0 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 88 68 89 / 0 0 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 93 72 94 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 91 69 92 / 0 0 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 93 71 94 / 0 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 93 70 94 / 0 0 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 95 72 95 / 0 0 10 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 92 72 93 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 73 95 / 0 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page