359  
FXUS64 KEWX 051138  
AFDEWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
638 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE TX IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE  
NEXT COUPLE DAYS SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT BUMP IN HIGH TEMPS, THERE  
SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF AREAS STILL IN THE 90S, BUT MOST TEMPS  
AROUND THE CLIMATE LOCATIONS SHOULD BE PUSHING TO TRIPLE DIGITS. NOW  
THAT THE H5 RIDGE HAS ADVANCED INTO WEST TX AND THE PANHANDLE, THE  
WINDS ALOFT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL BE LESS INFLUENTIAL ON  
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. TODAY'S WINDS,  
ALTHOUGH A FEW MPH LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAD ON THE 4TH, WILL REMAIN  
STEADY ONSHORE AND WILL LIKELY REPLENISH DEW POINTS EACH MORNING, SO  
WE DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES, AT  
LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME AREAS MAY MIX OUT RH VALUES INTO THE  
UPPER 20S WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH 10+ MPH WINDS AND DRY FUELS TO  
MAKE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH DAY. WE'RE STILL  
SEEING SOME PRE-DAWN LOW STRATUS FORMING ALONG THE ESCARPMENT, BUT  
DAILY DRY WEATHER TRENDS COULD MAKE THESE GO AWAY IN THE NEXT COUPLE  
DAYS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE  
RIDGE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE  
FORECAST. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
AS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA TO POSSIBLY ENHANCE  
THE SEABREEZE.  
 
THE HEAT, ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES, AND POSSIBLY ELEVATED FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN. LOWER LEVEL THICKNESSES  
AND 925 TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOW AN INCREASING TREND LEADING TO  
EVEN HOTTER HIGH TEMPERATURES. ONLY A FEW PARTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY  
MAY AVOID HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100, THOUGH THEY WILL BE CLOSE IN THE  
UPPER 90S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RUN UP TO 110. AS SOILS  
AND VEGETATION DRY DUE TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND HEAT, MIXING SHOULD  
BECOME MORE EFFICIENT. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE WARMING EVEN FURTHER,  
ALTHOUGH AT THE SAME TIME LEAD TO LOWER DEWPOINTS. REGARDLESS, HEAT  
INDEX VALUES LIKELY REMAIN THE SAME. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR  
PARTS OF OUR AREA DUE TO TEMPERATURES AND/OR HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE  
DRYING ALSO ALLOWS AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO LOWER MAKING FOR A  
POSSIBLE RETURN OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AS  
WINDS PICKUP AND BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY WITH PASSAGE OF THE SEABREEZE  
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.  
 
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND  
THIS FORECAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER  
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE EAST OR A SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS  
SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. WILL WAIT FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS  
BEFORE INTRODUCING POPS. THIS COULD ALSO "COOL" TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
WITH FEWER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AREA, MORE LOW STRATUS AREAS  
WERE ABLE TO FORM AT THIS TIME OF MORNING THAN FROM MONDAY. THE CIGS  
CONTINUE TO HAVE SEVERAL BREAKS AND SO A SCT V BKN PICTURE SHOULD BE  
CONSIDERED IN THE PREVAILING BKN PERIOD THROUGH 15-16Z. WINDS MAY BE  
A TAD LIGHTER OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
VERSUS THE SAME TIMES MONDAY, BUT SIMILAR SPEEDS AND GUSTS MAY BE  
ONGOING OUT AT DRT WHERE THERE MAY STILL BE A TIGHTER PRESSURE  
GRADIENT. UNTIL THE TRENDS CHANGE, WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RETURN  
OF LOW STRATUS AT AROUND 09Z FOR I-35 TAFS AND 12-13Z FOR DRT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 101 76 102 77 / 0 0 0 0  
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0  
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 99 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 0  
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0  
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 78 101 78 / 0 0 0 0  
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0  
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 101 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 0  
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 99 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0  
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 77 100 78 / 0 0 10 0  
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 99 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0  
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 101 77 102 77 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT-TERM...OAKS  
LONG-TERM...04  
AVIATION...OAKS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page