098
FXUS64 KEWX 042325
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
625 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE EAST.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MOST ON SATURDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 ON SUNDAY.
- WARMER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND THE COASTAL PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MORE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING. A DISTURBANCE
OVER OUR AREA ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE GULF HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH PERHAPS EVEN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FORMING
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS THAT SEE SOME PEAKS OF SUN. PWATS RANGE
FROM 1.6 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST EAST SO
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. MOST COULD EXPECT TO SEE A HALF TO PERHAPS 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE A BIT AFTER SUNSET MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WEST AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO MEXICO AND TOWARDS WEST TX. SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL GIVE US REPEATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FIRST OF WHICH ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. CONVECTION SHOULD FORM OFF THE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AND CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE RIO
GRANDE. OUT AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATES PWATS OVER 2 INCHES SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. MOST GUIDANCE HAS THIS ACTIVITY
WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE
HAS ALSO UNDERPERFORMED THIS PAST WEEK SO IT'S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY HOLD TOGETHER AND ADVANCE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PERHAPS ALL THE
WAY TO THE SAN ANTONIO METRO. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THUS HELPING TO EXPAND RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, THIS IS
ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY.
CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY AS LIFT
AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAIN AS
THE LOW CREEPS FURTHER EASTWARD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE LOW PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY, AS THIS LOW APPROACHES EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON TO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE (PWATS NEAR 2
INCHES) COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS OVER THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE WEEKEND
DOESNT LOOK LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT, SATURDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE
WETTER DAY OF THE TWO WITH A DRIER SUNDAY FOR MOST WITH ONLY
LINGERING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS.
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN TERMS
OF WEATHER AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN OVER US.
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO FINALLY DRY OUT FOR A COUPLE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY, WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY JUNE IN
THE LOW 90S. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE DRIER WEATHER WISE WE
WILL STILL HAVE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AROUND AS SOUTHERLY ONSHORE
FLOW REMAINS. WITH THIS FLOW, A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS REGION, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW
THIS FAR OUT. LASTLY WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY VALUES WE COULD SEE HEAT INDICES APPROACHING TRIPLE
DIGITS BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAINLY BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD BUT SOME HIT OR
MISS SHOWERS AND CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. ELECTED
TO LEAVE IN VCSH AT THE SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS (KSAT AND KSSF) AND
AT KDRT FOR THE FIRST HOURS OF THE TAF AS A RESULT. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, THE ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE RIO GRANDE, INCLUDING AROUND KDRT, AS A COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MEXICO SHOULD APPROACH AND SLOWLY
ADVANCE EAST INTO OUR WESTERN REGIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS COMPLEX LIKELY WEAKENS PRIOR TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35
CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN FAVORED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. KDRT HAS
MOST IMPACT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE I-35 TERMINALS
WILL FEATURE PROB30 WITH -TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL WITH THE CEILINGS DROPPING
INTO THE MVFR THEN IFR RANGE. CEILINGS RISE TO VFR LEVELS TOWARDS
AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 86 72 86 / 20 40 70 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 86 73 86 / 20 40 60 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 85 71 86 / 20 40 60 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 83 70 84 / 20 40 60 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 85 71 90 / 80 60 50 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 85 71 85 / 20 40 70 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 83 70 85 / 30 60 70 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 86 72 86 / 20 40 60 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 86 73 86 / 20 40 50 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 84 72 86 / 20 40 60 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 85 72 87 / 20 40 60 50
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...62
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