200
FXUS64 KEWX 041751
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- SPOTTY SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THIS EVENING.
- PLEASANT WEATHER EARLY TO MIDWEEK WITH LOW HUMIDITY, INCLUDING
WARM AFTERNOONS AND COOLER MORNINGS.
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES (~15-25%) RETURN LATE WEEK, MAINLY PEAK
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SOME SPOTTY NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST MOVING SHOWERS, PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED STORM, WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS PWATS
REMAIN AROUND THE 1.6 TO 2.1 INCH RANGE. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PEEKS OF SUN
COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. A COOL
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE CLOUDS WITH MODERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES THAT OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 30 MPH. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH AND END INTO TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
ERODES AND DRIER AIR STARTS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF COASTAL TROUGHING AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRIER AIR FUNNEL IN
FROM THE NORTH, YIELDING TO FAIR WEATHER WITH THE RETURN OF MORE
SUNSHINE THAN CLOUD COVER. THE AREA PWATS FALL TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THEN TO BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE SUNSHINE ALLOWS FOR MORE EFFICIENT
HEATING AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, WHERE HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE LOW 80S IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. DRIER AIR AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER,
MORNING LOWS INTO TUESDAY WILL DIP INTO THE MID 60S FOR MANY AND
UPPER 50S FOR THE COOLEST AREAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAINTAIN.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
PLEASANT WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION OF
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COOLER, REFRESHING MORNINGS AND
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT WARM AFTERNOONS. A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT SHOULD TREND LIGHTER
COMPARED TO SPEEDS SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND ON MONDAY.
A BROAD MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ESTABLISHING LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE CONCHO VALLEY MAY BE ENOUGH TO BE ABLE TO
HELP SQUEEZE OUT SOME LOW END RAIN CHANCES (~15-25%) LATE THIS
WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES PEAK LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BE AIDED BY SOME INFLUENCE AND
MOISTURE FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS NOW MONITORING
THAT POTENTIAL ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HAS PROVIDED UP TO A
MEDIUM (40%) CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
STORM OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. NONETHELESS, THE STEERING FLOW FAVORS
THAT IF A SURFACE LOW IS ABLE TO DEVELOP, IT WOULD SUGGEST A
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY WITH TIME. THIS WOULD PUT MOST OF
TEXAS, INCLUDING OUR REGION, ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS MAY
HELP TO DRY OUT OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CAVEAT WITH
BEING ON THE DRY SIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL SYSTEM WOULD BE THAT THE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP EASIER WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
REGION BY SUNDAY COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S FOR MANY. A COUPLE
LOCATIONS MAY EVEN POTENTIALLY GET BACK INTO THE MID 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KDRT AND VICINITY. SCATTERED SHRA IS NOTED ALONG AND EAST OF A
KGTU TO KAUS TO KSEQ LINE, WHICH MAY CAUSE BRIEF IMPACTS TO KAUS
BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES BY 21Z. CIGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON, INCLUDING MODEST CLEARING NEAR KSAT/KSSF, BEFORE LOW
CIGS RETURN OVERNIGHT. THE NIGHTTIME FORECAST HAS LOW CONFIDENCE.
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH TO STEADILY ELIMINATE LOW CLOUDS,
BEGINNING NEAR KAUS, BUT TIMING IS VERY UNCERTAIN. KDRT MAY RETAIN
LOW CIGS OR SCT COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE 18Z. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 79 69 86 66 / 40 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 80 70 86 64 / 40 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 80 71 86 64 / 30 10 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 66 81 61 / 50 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 71 86 68 / 20 20 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 78 68 85 62 / 50 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 83 72 87 65 / 20 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 69 86 64 / 30 10 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 82 70 87 65 / 40 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 71 86 67 / 20 10 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 82 72 88 67 / 20 10 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...TRAN
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