804
FXUS64 KEWX 160610
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1210 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON TO BRING WHAT SHOULD BE THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE TO ALL AREAS SUNDAY.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE NEXT WEEK AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CONUS TODAY, AND WITH IT COMES THE NEXT SURGE OF POLAR AIR. THE
FRONT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE DETERMINISTIC DPROG/DT VIEWS TO
ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY, SO WE OPTED FOR SOME INFLUENCE OF SOME OF THE
FASTER TIMING SEEN IN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. THERE SHOULD BE
A NICE MORNING OF SUNNY SKIES AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TO
BOOST UP MOST DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 70S, BUT THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND FAR NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE FRONT SLIPPING
INTO OUR AREA BEFORE NOON AND FLATTENING OF THE WARMING. MAIN
CONCERNS FROM THE FRONT IS THE IMPACTS ON OUR ALREADY ACTIVE FIRE
SEASON, AND MORE ON THIS WILL BE COVERED BELOW. AS THE FRONT INVADES
SOUTH, IT WILL GO INTO AREAS ALREADY INTO THE 70S AND WILL BE LESS
ABLE TO CURB AN ADDITIONAL 1 OR 2 DEGREES OF AFTERNOON HEATING
BEHIND THE INITIAL SHIFT, BUT SHARPER COOLING WILL ARRIVE AT SUNSET,
AND OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE 40S.
SURFACE WINDS MAY BE RELAXED A BIT EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY, BUT A
SECONDARY LOBE OF VORTICITY FROM THE DIGGING TROUGH SENDS A STRONGER
SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION BY MIDDAY. MORE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ADDRESSED ON THIS PERIOD BELOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COLDER THAN THOSE EXPECTED TODAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
TWO STRAIGHT NIGHTS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE A MUCH MORE
THOROUGH FREEZE, SO WE MAY BE ABLE TO CLOSE OUT THE CHAPTER OF THE
FREEZE WARNING ISSUANCE FOR FIRST FREEZES OF THE SEASON. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES IN OUR CWA SHOULD BE AROUND 20 DEGREES, WITH SOME
ISOLATED HILL COUNTRY POCKETS IN THE TEENS POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE
MAJOR METRO AREAS SHOULD EXPECT WHAT WE WOULD CALL A LIGHT FREEZE,
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 28 DEGREES.
THE UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT AS THE DEEPER VORTICITY ROTATES NE
INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST, BUT THERE IS A HINT OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
THAT COULD SENDS US A BACKDOOR AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY.
MORE IMPORTANTLY THOUGH, THE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SUNNY
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY TO HELP GET LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER OF
TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING. UNLESS THIS POTENTIAL
BACKDOOR FRONT TRENDS STRONGER IN FUTURE MODEL CYCLES, THE CONSENSUS
TREND IS SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS HELPFUL, BECAUSE WE'LL HAVE A QUICK INCREASE IN
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A POSSIBLE OVERRUNNING RAIN PATTERN DEVELOPING
AS EARLY AS DAYTIME TUESDAY. EVEN IF A LIGHT WINTER MIX WERE TO
INTRODUCE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT, THE CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN WOULD
COME QUICK AND NOT CREATE ANY TRAVEL ISSUES. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY FALL ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND WILL
GENERALLY BE 12 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS MORNING. A FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. WIND GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 20-25 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASE IN THE WEST,
INCLUDING AT DRT, AFTER 00Z. WIND REMAINS ELEVATED LONGER IN THE
EAST THOUGH GUSTS DECREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN PLENTY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
LIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO THE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL OCCUR EARLY TODAY, BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM IMPACTING MUCH OF THE AREA WHEN ANOTHER AFTERNOON
COLD FRONT PASSAGE PICKS UP THE WIND GUSTS AND DRIES THE AREA OUT
AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS GET A REINFORCING PUSH
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN, NEARLY ALL AREAS COULD SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH DRY AIR SETTLING OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT
WINDS A CURING FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY COVER ALL AREAS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY WARMER
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. THEN TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, THERE
COULD BE A POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 39 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 39 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 39 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 33 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 36 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 36 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 40 58 25 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 39 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 41 55 28 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 42 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 44 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page