237
FXUS64 KEWX 101043
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
543 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A VERY HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES
- MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED; SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE TIME WINDOWS TO MONITOR MOST
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
YESTERDAY'S SHOWER AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD PEAKED
FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS
PICKING UP 1.5 OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME. OVERNIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING, SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM
REMAINS POSSIBLE. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP A
VERY HUMID AND WARM AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH A DEEP WARM CLOUD
LAYER AND PWATS THAT ARE IN THE 85 TO 95 PERCENTILE RANGE DURING
THIS TIME OF YEAR. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN
FLARE UP FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. LIKE YESTERDAY, THE AREA WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
SHOULD KEEP STORM ACTIVITY NON-SEVERE. HOWEVER, STORMS COULD AGAIN
BECOME EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS THAT
PRODUCE A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES. STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE. ANTICIPATE A GENERAL DECREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARD AND BEYOND SUNSET TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL
AGAIN BE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO REMAINING INTO AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY IS NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE EITHER AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE MOST OF THE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS A SUBTLE UPTICK IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LATE ARRIVING SHORTWAVE FROM
THE WEST, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN OF 30 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN STORM
ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, EFFICIENT
RAINS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
FOCUS ACROSS WEST TEXAS NEAR THE DRYLINE AND WHERE THE FORCING IS
STRONGEST AT THAT TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NEARING SHORTWAVE.
CONCERNS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL
WAIT UNTIL AFTER DARK AND THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED BELOW IN THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
COMMON, WITH CEILINGS BECOMING THE LOWEST OVERNIGHT INTO EACH
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT EARLY SUNDAY COULD SEE ONGOING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS APPROACH AND ENTER
INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS IS WHERE THE BULK SHEAR
WOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE SHORTWAVE, WITH THAT STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. A WEAKENING TREND THEN OCCURS AS THIS ACTIVITY ADVANCES
EASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE THE SHEAR LEVELS
DROP OFF AND THE INSTABILITY BECOMES LOWER, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
EARLY MORNING TIMEFRAME.
ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH
FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THIS TIME WILL TREND A LITTLE
CLOSER AND MORE ALIGNED TO OUR REGION. THIS BRINGS A STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BETTER SHEAR TO THE AREA. THE DRYLINE IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER IN PROXIMITY AND SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCAL POINT, IN ADDITION TO THE MEXICO HIGHER TERRAIN, FOR STORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASES
WITH MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG POOLING IN OUR WESTERN TIER
COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE STORMS. THE INITIAL
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OUT WEST THEN WOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE
SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT PERIOD WITH A LINGERING SEVERE RISK BUT
THIS COULD START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES FOR
AREAS FARTHER TO THE EAST. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
LIKELY BE THE GREATEST SEVERE HAZARDS. STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL WITH RAINFALL RATES ENOUGH THAT MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. WHILE THE LATEST DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK FROM SPC CONCENTRATES THE HIGHEST SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE I-10/HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR, IT
COULD NEED ADJUSTING SOUTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WITH THE SUPPORT
FROM THE EARLIEST OUTPUT FROM THE 60 HOUR SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
MEMBERS.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY SLOW
AND EVENTUALLY PIVOTS TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST SOMETIME AROUND
MIDWEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND DAILY RAIN CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER, MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN THE
DRIEST PERIOD AS THE GUIDANCE ARE NOT SHOWING THE ARRIVAL OF A
SHORTWAVE DURING THAT TIME. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS THE NEXT
PERIOD TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION PENDING ON THE ARRIVAL OF ANY
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY, THE PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE, AND A
PACIFIC FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT EVENTUALLY WILL
TRY TO OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE. THE SPC HIGHLIGHTS A POTENTIAL RISK
AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY AND THE
AUSTIN AREA EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 80S FOR MOST. OVERNIGHTS REMAIN WARM AND VERY HUMID WITH THE
MORNINGS LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. NIGHTS GENERALLY
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WHILE SOME BREAKS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS LEND TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. EACH DAY'S RAIN CHANCES AND OVERALL RISK WITH SEVERE
WEATHER OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE CONTINGENT ON HOW THE DAY
BEFORE PLAYS OUT. HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNING INFORMATION!
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE I-35 SITES THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AROUND 18Z TODAY OR SHORTLY AFTER. ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE AROUND THE I-35 TERMINALS EARLY AFTERNOON.
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE I-35 TERMINALS WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY AROUND 20Z TO 24Z. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN ADDITION TO REDUCING VISIBILITIES AS THEY
MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE TONIGHT TO
THE I-35 AIRPORTS. SOUTHEAST FLOW STAYS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 6 TO 12 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY.
LIGHT WINDS OF 6 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 67 82 69 / 50 30 40 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 66 82 69 / 50 20 40 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 81 66 82 69 / 50 20 40 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 64 79 67 / 30 20 40 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 68 81 69 / 10 40 30 70
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 66 81 68 / 50 30 40 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 65 81 67 / 50 30 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 65 82 69 / 50 20 40 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 67 83 70 / 50 20 40 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 67 81 69 / 50 20 50 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 82 70 / 50 20 40 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...17
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