612
FXUS64 KEWX 092326
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MORE HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
- SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK; SUNDAY IS DAY WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-35 AND HIGHWAY 90.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
A HUMID AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT A GENERAL WANING
TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET EACH EVENING. WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
BUT LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISORGANIZED AND
NON-SEVERE IN NATURE, THOUGH STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WIND
UP TO AROUND 40 MPH. GIVEN THE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY TODAY. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A HIGHER
TOTALS TODAY, THOUGH EXACTLY WHERE WE COULD SEE ANY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION A DISTURBANCE IN OVER
MEXICO COULD GENERATE SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT MOVE EAST INTO
LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BRINGING HIGHER TOTALS LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY THAT WARRANTS WATCHING. ALL IN ALL, CANNOT RULE OUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THIS MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT BOTH TODAY
AND TOMORROW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER FALLING ONLY INTO THE 60S EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN US
SATURDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE ALLOWS FOR PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER TEXAS AS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE WEST AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST AND COULD REACH
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, RIO GRANDE PLAINS OR THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY LATE THAT NIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE AREA COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, THOUGH THEY MAY BE
WEAKENING THE FURTHER EAST THEY GO. SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
RISK NOW IN THE DAY 3 TIMEFRAME OVER THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE.
FOR SUNDAY, CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASE AS BETTER FORCING
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST CLOSER TO OUR AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THIS DAY ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES BRINGING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
AREA. SPC HIGHLIGHTS MORE OF OUR AREA FOR A SEVERE RISK OVER THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR. THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIMING FOR THIS WOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SUNDAY.
FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ANY THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK AT AROUND
1.75 TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR AREA. RAINFALL RATES WITH STORMS COULD BE
INTENSE AND THE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
WITH STORM ACTIVITY.
THE TROUGH TO THE WEST BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID-WEEK WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
OUR AREA. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY FOR AT LEAST
SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, THOUGH THEY HAVE LOWERED FOR
MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN INTO MID-WEEK MAINLY
FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, THOUGH ITS TOO FAR OUT TO
PROVIDE DETAILS. KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AND ALWAYS HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNING
INFORMATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A KAQO TO KSAT
LINE WITH SCATTERED TSRA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
CONCENTRATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT, WHICH HAS PUSHED NORTH OF KAUS. HOWEVER,
LINGERING SHRA/TSRA NEAR KSAT/KSSF COULD IMPACT TERMINALS THROUGH
04Z. CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPANSIVE MVFR/IFR
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP REGIONWIDE WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS AFTER SUNRISE. A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SHOULD
PRODUCE A SIMILAR ROUND OF SCATTERED TSRA AFTER 18Z WITH POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO THE I-35 TAF SITES. THIS POTENTIAL IS INDICATED WITH
THE PROB30 GROUP. PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 65 80 65 82 / 70 60 30 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 80 65 82 / 70 60 30 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 80 65 82 / 70 60 30 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 78 64 78 / 40 50 20 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 82 67 81 / 20 30 60 70
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 64 80 65 81 / 60 60 20 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 80 65 81 / 40 50 30 70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 80 65 82 / 70 60 30 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 65 80 65 83 / 40 60 20 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 65 80 66 81 / 60 60 30 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 66 81 67 82 / 50 60 30 70
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...TRAN
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