108
FXUS64 KEWX 250500
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1200 AM CDT THU APR 25 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE MAINS
IN RESPONSE TO AN EJECTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD SHOULD BE LARGELY UNEVENTFUL FROM A WEATHER STANDPOINT AS
MUCH OF THE FORCING (BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT) ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. NEVERTHELESS, INDICATIONS
ARE ISENTROPIC LIFT TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HELP
PRODUCE PATCHES OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, AND
SOME 10-15% POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED INTO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, THOUGH THE ELEVATED
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD LARGELY PREVENT THIS. OTHERWISE, THE TAIL END OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS N/W TEXAS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SO THERE ARE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THAT TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POTENTIAL. ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE
TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS. OTHERWISE, WARM, MUGGY, AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH A STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZE MAY
MAKE IT FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE THAN IT WOULD WITHOUT IT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A LARGE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
SWINGING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A POTENT 500MB VORT MAX WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVER NORTHERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, WHICH WILL IN TURN
ALLOW A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN OVER OUR CWA. THIS DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE
TO WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARD
PLATEAU FRIDAY, BECOMING THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME, THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FARTHER NORTH
INTO THE FORT WORTH CWA, CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING, HOWEVER,
WE MAY SEE SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS, WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE PUSHING THE CENTURY
MARK AT DEL RIO, EAGLE PASS, AND FAITH RANCH. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS,
THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN UP ONCE MORE, LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SLIDING
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING, IF THE
TROUGH MANAGES TO SLOW DOWN A BIT, THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD CERTAINLY
INCREASE AS STORMS WOULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, FOR NOW, THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE WEIGHTED MORE TOWARDS
HEAVY RAINFALL. INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT AND PWATS ARE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG FOR LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY.
STORMS MAY TRY TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF MORNING CONVECTION AND WHETHER WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEYOND SUNDAY, THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE, BUT MESSY TO SAY THE
LEAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON ACTIVE WEATHER WITH
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES, BUT AS FAR AS PINPOINTING PARTICULAR
LOCATIONS, THERE IS LITTLE CERTAINTY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL
STATUS. IN ADDITION TO THE CEILINGS, COULD SEE SOME PATCHY TO AREAS
OF DRIZZLE/FOG BY MORNING AND WILL INCLUDE -DZ IN THE TAFS. VFR WILL
RETURN BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 84 71 84 / 20 20 10 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 83 70 83 / 20 20 10 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 86 71 86 / 20 20 10 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 82 69 82 / 20 20 20 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 92 74 97 / 10 10 20 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 83 69 82 / 20 20 10 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 89 69 89 / 10 10 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 69 84 / 20 20 10 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 83 72 83 / 20 20 0 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 86 70 85 / 20 20 10 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 87 72 87 / 20 20 10 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...GALE
LONG-TERM...MMM
AVIATION...29
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