051
FXUS64 KEWX 041746
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1246 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE.
- SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN BY MID WEEK AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AND AHEAD OF A DECENT COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS THE AREA
WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 IN RANGE. CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS
LOCATED JUST OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES
THROUGH TEMPS HAVE DROPPED 10-15 DEGREES ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH BEFORE SETTLING DOWN INTO
THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF THIS IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THIS EVENING. AS IT STANDS CURRENTLY, THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE QUITE LOW WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
OCCURRING. THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS EAST OF THE I- 35 CORRIDOR
AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED OUR SEVERE RISK
WHICH ENCOMPASSES MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A SAN ANTONIO TO
AUSTIN LINE. THE MAIN RISK AT THIS POINT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS AS STORMS MAY REINTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER BETTER FORCING
ACROSS THIS AREA. ADDITIONALLY, IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS SOME
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE, THEN HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES
THE MAIN THREAT. WPC CURRENTLY HAS MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN A LEVEL
1 OF 4 RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 TO NEW BRAUNFELS LINE IN A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK. THE LATEST 24
HR TOTAL QPF FROM THE HREF CONTINUES TO SHOW TOTALS ANYWHERE FROM
3 TO 5 INCHES. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SINCE PWATS ARE STILL VERY
HIGH AND DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING OUT AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LEADING TO HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. AREAS BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD SEE
TEMPS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S AS HAS BEEN RECENTLY NOTED OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY. WHILE AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO TUMBLE, BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE LOW 50S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH. EASTER SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH
COLDER WITH A PERSISTENT CAA ON THE BACKSIDE IT WILL FEEL
DOWNRIGHT CHILLY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S AS
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, WITH
OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH
THE CLOUDY AND COLD NORTHERLY WIND IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER.
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN TONIGHTS WITH SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY DROPPING INTO THE 40S WHILE
EVERYWHERE ELSE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S(WARMEST
SOUTH)AS OFF AND ON SHOWERS CONTINUE AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY JUST A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS WE TRANSITION FROM
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO EASTERLY HELPING THE AREA TO FINALLY
DRY OUT. IT LOOKS LIKE WE STAY IN EASTERLY FLOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HELP TO KEEP
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCKED IN PLACE ALOFT THUS LIMITING A
RAPID WARMUP OVER OUR AREA. SIMILARLY, GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A LOW FORMING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA MID WEEK AND THEN
MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO WEST TEXAS EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED HOWEVER THERE'S ENOUGH
VORTICITY AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. KEPT POPS AROUND 20% TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LOW UNCERTAINTY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLE BEYOND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
BEYOND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS I-35
TERMINALS FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG, GUSTY WIND AND
LOW IFR VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSAGE. MORE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN FURTHER WEST WITH THIS LINE WHICH MAY IMPACT KDRT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AROUND 21-22Z MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF TERMINALS, THOUGH SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
COULD REMAIN THROUGH 23Z. BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTY NORTH WIND IS
EXPECTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW,
EASING ONLY SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. AT KDRT, WINDS DECREASE LATE EVENING
AND REMAIN LIGHTER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT TO VFR CLOSER TO 00Z SUNDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS COULD MOVE BACK IN AND REACH KSAT/KSSF NEAR SUNRISE BY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING AND
A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN INTRODUCED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 54 71 53 74 / 20 10 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 54 70 52 73 / 30 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 54 69 52 73 / 30 20 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 51 69 50 71 / 10 10 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 58 66 55 70 / 30 50 40 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 51 68 51 71 / 10 10 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 54 67 52 68 / 30 30 30 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 54 69 52 73 / 30 20 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 71 53 73 / 40 20 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 56 68 54 72 / 30 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 56 68 55 71 / 30 30 30 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...27
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