074
FXUS64 KEWX 072210
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
510 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020
UPDATE
VERY QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY RETREND TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREAS THAT
HAVE SEEN SOME RAIN COOLED AND OUTFLOW DRIVEN AIR DROP TEMPERATURES
ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. HAVE ALSO
EXPANDED MENTION OF 20-30 POPS TO INCLUDE PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU THROUGH 7 PM AS THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OZONA IN
CROCKETT COUNTY MAY WORK INTO PARTS OF VAL VERDE COUNTY BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION TO THE
STORMS OUT WEST ONE OR TWO MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
WORK INTO GILLESPIE AND LLANO COUNTY OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THESE
AREAS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY QUIETING DOWN THIS EVENING WITH
A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE RAIN ON THE RADAR THIS EVENING MAY BE THE
LAST RAIN THAT KDFX, KEWX, AND KGRK SEE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 223 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
IT IS A HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION (MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY). THE
RESULT IS HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 106
DEGREES. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT PRODUCED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF THE DFW METROPLEX SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
FINALLY BEGUN ENTERING INTO OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING BEHIND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A GIDDINGS TO AUSTIN TO FREDERICKSBURG LINE.
CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID OVERNIGHT PERIOD ON TAP AND A STRATUS CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT BY LATE MORNING.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FINALLY TAKE OVER TOMORROW, WITH
NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DEW POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH AS
TODAY, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SEND HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 101 TO 107 TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WASH, RINSE, REPEAT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
AND MORNING STRATUS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
CONTINUED DOMINATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL LEAD TO HOT
WEATHER AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, EVEN BEYOND THE 7 DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST.
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO MID 100S (WARMEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE) WILL
COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S TO BRING HEAT
INDICES AS HIGH AS 110 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
BY THE WEEKEND, DAYTIME MIXING LOOKS TO IMPROVE AND SO DEW POINTS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S DURING THE DAYTIME FOR ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAINS. NONETHELESS, IT WON'T FEEL GREAT
OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AT 100-108. IF NECESSARY, HEAT
ADVISORIES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF
I-37.
IT MAY BE EVEN HOTTER ON MONDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE BUILDING HEAT
COULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES, BUT THE GEFS MEAN VALUES
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW THE DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS
THAT ARE OUTPUTTING HIGHS NEAR 110 MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STILL, 100S
ARE LIKELY AREA-WIDE BY THEN. IN ADDITION, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER WEEK TWO HAZARDS OUTLOOK KEEPS MUCH OF OUR AREA, INCLUDING
THE SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN METROS IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
HEAT IN THE JULY 15-21ST PERIOD, SO THE HEAT DOME DOESN'T LOOK TO
ABATE ANYTIME SOON. YESTERDAY'S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK ALSO INDICATES A 50-
60+% CHANCE FOR DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE JULY 12-16
PERIOD. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ALREADY EXPERIENCING 30-DAY
RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 1-3+ INCHES, EXPANSION AND DEGRADATION IN
DROUGHT STATUS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY BE NECESSARY OVER THE
COMING WEEKS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 120 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020/
UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
NORTH OF AUS TOWARD TEMPLE WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH
TOWARD AUS. NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, AND MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF AUS. CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE ENDING BY LATE EVENING. ANOTHER MVFR STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT AUS/SAT/SSF BY AROUND 9Z WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT BY LATE MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTH (SOUTHEAST AT DRT) AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS
(SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT DRT).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 97 77 97 76 / 10 - 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 97 77 97 76 / 10 - 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 78 97 77 98 75 / - - 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 75 96 74 / 20 - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 100 80 103 79 / - 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 78 95 76 98 76 / 20 - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 77 97 76 101 75 / 10 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 96 76 98 75 / - - 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 79 95 78 99 77 / - - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 97 77 99 77 / 10 - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 99 78 99 77 / 10 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...TREADWAY
LONG-TERM...17
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