721
FXUS64 KEWX 181102
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
602 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MID MORNING TO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. SATURDAY MORNING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST OVER
35 MPH AT TIMES.
- NEAR WIDESPREAD RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
- COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID-WEEK WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF INTEREST IN THE WEEKEND WEATHER DUE TO THE
STRONG FRONT SET TO ARRIVE AND THE LARGE AMOUNT OF OUTDOOR EVENTS
THAT ARE TYPICALLY PLANNED FOR APRIL. IN SHORT THE RESPONSE HAS
BEEN, SOME SPOTTY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND A GUSTY WIND FROM THE FRONT THAT COULD
APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE BELIEVE THE MID-MORNING TIMING,
CLOUD CANOPY AND LACK OF DEEP LAYER OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO BE
LIMITING FACTORS, AND THE MAV GUIDANCES WHICH USUALLY PROVIDE A GOOD
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE ON SURFACE WIND SPEEDS IS SOMEWHAT
RESERVED AND MAINLY SUSTAINED BELOW 20 KNOTS. THIS MIGHT CORRELATE
WITH A DAY WHERE GUSTS MIGHT TOP 35 MPH AT TIMES, MAKING FOR
DIFFICULT TIMES FOR THOSE HOISTING SMALL EVENT TENTS AND CANOPIES.
THE ONE THING THAT IS NOT MUCH CONCERN FOR IS SEVERE WEATHER. SURE
THERE IS AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
LATE TONIGHT AND ANY STRONG STORM THAT FORMS OUT BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CAPABLE OF REACHING THE LOW END
SIDE OF SEVERE WIND OR HAIL. THERE CURRENT DAY2 OUTLOOK (THAT IS
SOON TO BE THE NEW DAY1) HAS A SMALL SLIVER OF MARGINAL RISK (1 OF
5) CONCERNS FOR THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY, MAINLY FOR ELEVATED HAIL
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER FRONT AND IT DOESN'T REALLY MATCH THE
REFLECTIVITY STAMPS OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS. THE HI-RES MODELS
DO NOT AGREE WELL WITH EACH OTHER EITHER. THIS LEAVES US WITH A LOW
CONFIDENCE SHORT TERM FORECAST ON TRYING TO CATCH THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY, WHICH IS OF COURSE IS WHAT EVENT
PLANNERS WANT. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE, WE SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO
ALMOST COMPLETELY RULE OUT DAMAGING WINDS OVER 50 MPH AND THE THREAT
OF A TORNADO, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE FRONT HAS ARRIVED.
THE GUSTY WINDS COLD LAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GIVING IN TO A
WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BY 06Z SUNDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD MINIMIZE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD STILL MOVE OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE MOST SHALLOW. THIS RAIN-FREE PERIOD
MIGHT BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE'LL SEE IN THE LONG RANGE DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE DAMPENED SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER TX BECOMES SMOOTHER AGAIN MONDAY
AS WEAK TROUGHING MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE
WESTERLIES TOWARD TX. WHILE THE WINDS ARE STILL MAINLY OUT OF THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST, THIS PACIFIC INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE A GOOD
OVERRUNNING SETUP AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO AS LATE
AS WEDNESDAY ONCE ALL THE POSSIBLE OVERRUNNING ASPECTS ARE WASHED
OUT. THE LARGE MID-LEVEL DRY LAYER SHOULD MEAN MONDAYS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD COME IN LIGHT, WITH PERHAPS MUCH OF IT VIRGA. THE
WEDNESDAY PERIOD WILL HAVE THE MOST MOISTURE BUT THE LEAST AMOUNT OF
SHEAR TO HELP WITH LIFTING PROCESS, AND THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
ALREADY SHOWN TO BE CROSSING TX TUESDAY. THIS MEANS TUESDAY SHOULD
BE OUR WETTEST DAY OF THE LONG RANGE AND WITH CONTINUED WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO
BE MONDAY, AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF THE RAIN INTO DRY AIR COULD
ASSIST WITH THAT.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING A DAY BY DAY WARMING
TREND BACK TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE 80S MID-WEEK.
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK
KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW, BUT DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND A
DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS KEEP RAIN CHANCES NON-ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY SIGNALING A STORMY PICTURE FOR OUR AREA NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING TURNING THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KTS STARTING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 53 74 55 / 60 60 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 53 74 54 / 60 60 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 53 72 54 / 60 70 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 48 71 53 / 60 40 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 56 67 55 / 60 30 20 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 72 50 72 54 / 50 50 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 53 67 54 / 50 60 10 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 53 72 54 / 60 70 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 54 72 54 / 60 70 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 54 70 56 / 50 70 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 56 70 57 / 50 70 10 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...05
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