407
FXUS64 KEWX 300400
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1100 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE REST OF TODAY
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
- DRY AND COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM VAL VERDE TO KINNEY COUNTY
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ANOTHER HOUR
UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE RIO GRANDE COUNTIES AND EDWARDS AND UVALDE.
THIS ONE STORM CONTINUES EAST AND THERE IS A SECOND STORM THAT IS
LIKELY SEVERE IN MEXICO THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE RIVER. WE HAVE
CANCELLED THE REST OF THE WATCH.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE EVENING. SEVERAL MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO
ENHANCE INSTABILITY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY,
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FRONT EXTENDS FROM GEORGETOWN TO KERRVILLE TO CENTRAL VAL VERDE
COUNTY AS OF 1230 PM. EARLIER HIRES GUIDANCE HAD STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY FOR THE 12 PM HOUR, HOWEVER, THE
CAP IS HOLDING STRONG AT AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
BASED ON A RECENT AIRPLANE VERTICAL PROFILE. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, A JUMP IN LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING AS A
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE OF THOSE
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES. WITH THAT SAID, STILL THINKING THAT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS WAVE MOVES
TO THE EAST AND HELPS THE CAP TO ERODE SOMEWHAT.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY GROW TO
STRONG AND SEVERE LEVELS IS FROM NOW THROUGH 4 PM ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. THE AUSTIN
AREA COULD GET AN ELEVATED STORM AS THEY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE ESCARPMENT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH WITH STORMS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
THE I-35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA AND VICINITY
AROUND 2 PM TO 6 PM IF THE CAP WEAKENS OR BREAKS. FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS AREA, IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, EXPECT THEM AROUND 5 PM INTO
THE EVENING.
A COUPLE OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS (1 TO 3 HOURS UPDATE PERIODS),
FOCUSED ON MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE. IF THIS HAPPENS, THEN THE
CAP HOLDS FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE LOCAL AREA. BY THE WAY, THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND
HEAVY RAIN. STRONGER STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL (2+ INCHES) DUE TO HIGH VALUES OF INSTABILITY OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. TORNADO RISKS IS LOW. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY (60+) WITH PWATS COMING IN AT 1.64
INCHES FROM THE 12Z DRT SOUNDING AND FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2.0+
INCHES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY, PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, AND
COASTAL PLAINS. WITH THAT SAID, ISOLATED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN IS IN STORE AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM WEST TO EAST WHILE A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE SITS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY, THE DRYLINE STAYS
OVER THE PECOS AREA AND TODAY'S FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS AROUND
THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH THIS POTENTIAL SETUP, MAIN THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY RAIN. AS FAR AS HEAVY
RAIN IS CONCERN, THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR ISOLATED 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
UP TO 6 INCHES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND PARTS OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AND GEORGETOWN AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH
COULD BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY MORNING. WE ARE MONITORING CLOSELY
TODAY'S SITUATION ON HOW IT PLAYS OUT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
RAIN AND STORMS CHANCES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THEN PUSHES INTO OUR AREA. WITH ELEVATED
PWATS IN PLACE, IT IS LIKELY TO HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME IS HARD TO PIN POINT
THOSE AREAS, HOWEVER, MODELS ARE FOCUSING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. A COOL AND DRY WEEKEND AWAITS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S FOR SATURDAY AND 70S ON SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND
STARTS THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND EVEN 90S OVER THE RIO
GRANDE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
A FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE AREA AND WAS NEAR
A KDRT TO KBAZ LINE AS OF 00Z. A PROMINENT STORM CELL WAS LOCATED
SOUTH OF KECU BUT IS ON TRACK TO MISS THE TAF TERMINALS.
PREVAILING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOWERED CIGS TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR KAUS WHERE IFR CIGS ARE REFLECTED IN THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND MOST HI-RES MODELS. SLOW RECOVERY OF CIGS
IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. SOME INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSRA/SHRA IS EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 18Z. CHANCES ARE GENERALLY
HIGHER FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO KAUS, BUT FOR NOW, HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL ONLY WITH PROB30S DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 65 77 60 64 / 20 40 90 100
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 66 79 61 65 / 20 40 90 100
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 62 66 / 20 30 90 100
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 72 56 60 / 30 60 90 100
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 81 66 74 / 40 40 90 90
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 64 74 58 62 / 30 50 90 100
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 67 82 63 68 / 20 20 90 100
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 61 65 / 20 30 90 100
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 80 63 67 / 20 30 80 100
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 81 63 67 / 20 30 90 100
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 83 65 68 / 20 20 80 100
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TRAN
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