026
FXUS64 KEWX 120652
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
152 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2024
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, WITH DRY AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES, ABOVE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY, WITH 100 TO 102 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THESE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS
FOR THE DATE AT SAN ANTONIO AND DEL RIO (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2024
SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BEGIN THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNDERNEATH WEAK SHORT-
WAVE RIDGING ALOFT. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD ELONGATE A BIT WITH A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOW POPS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN, HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER THAN SATURDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. RIDGING RETURNS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY OUTSIDE
OF PERHAPS A COASTAL PLAINS SHOWER OR TWO. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
90S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2024
STRATUS, CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS, IS FORECAST
TO EXPAND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE AUSTIN AREA AND NEAR SAN
ANTONIO AROUND DAYBREAK. A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST
WITH THIS STRATUS. HREF IS CURRENTLY INDICATING A 60-80% CHANCE OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT AUS AND 40-60% CHANCE AT SAT. THE MORE LIKELY
LOCATION FOR IFR CEILINGS IS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HILL
COUNTRY, WITH HREF INDICATES A 60-90% CHANCE OF THIS. THE STRATUS IS
FORECAST TO MIX OUT 15Z-17Z, WITH FEW-SCT CU THEREAFTER. WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY AROUND 5KT OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY, FROM THE N TO NE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND FROM THE E TO SE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2024
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 13
AUSTIN BERGSTROM....102 IN 2011
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY...105 IN 2011
DEL RIO.............101 IN 2017
SAN ANTONIO.........100 IN 2011
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 70 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 68 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 96 70 99 74 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 68 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 76 102 79 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 67 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 95 71 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 93 68 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 68 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 96 73 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 97 74 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...76
LONG-TERM...29
AVIATION...76
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