902
FXUS64 KEWX 271121
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
521 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
FEW MORNINGS
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20 TO 40%) FOR RAIN AND STORMS MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS OKLAHOMA WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO SLOWLY SHIFT OUR LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW (OF NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS) MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN PICKS UP INTO AND THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL
RESULT IN GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WITH THE SOUTHERLY
CONNECTION FROM THE GULF, ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AN UPTICK IN THE COVERAGE FOR NOCTURNAL/MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THIS MORNING MAY EVEN SEE A STRIP OF LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAIN AREA
COUNTIES. LOW CLOUDS AND ANY FOG ERODE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH
AFTERNOON.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT TO BE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY
FROM SAN ANTONIO WEST/SOUTHWESTWARD, THEY REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WHILE
LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE COULD ECLIPSE 90 DEGREES. MORNING
LOWS WILL BE COMMON IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING TO
NEAR 60 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
THE PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED INTO AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH PERSISTENT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, RAIN FREE
CONDITIONS, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE GFS HAS
OCCASIONALLY HINTED THAT A FRONT MAY ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY INTO
MONDAY BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE OF AN OUTLYING SOLUTION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHERN MEXICO FINALLY GETS SUPPLANTED BY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ADVANCING INTO THAT REGION. A SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
ESTABLISHING ALOFT OVER OUR REGION AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
YIELD TO A RETURN OF LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 40%) RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATE THE BEST FORCING AND CHANCES COULD CONCENTRATE
ACROSS MISSOURI INTO NORTH TEXAS BUT DO INDICATE SOME QPF THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. DIFFERENCES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EXIST, AS COMMON FOR BEING
AROUND 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE BULLISH ON QPF COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE ECMWF AI
ENSEMBLE MEAN HAD COME IN LOWER THAN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT
WASN'T QUITE AS LOW AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MIDWEEK DESPITE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
MVFR CEILING HAS MADE IT TO SSF, BUT IS INTERMITTENT. WE'RE STILL
NOT CERTAIN IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO SAT. WE HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS
TO BOTH TAFS FOR MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE
MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN IN THE SAN ANTONIO AREA SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE TO IMPROVE COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DIRECTIONS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
GUSTINESS IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 25 MPH. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN MAINTAIN FOR MOST OF EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS GRADUALLY
INCREASE EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY AND GENERALLY WILL MAINTAIN NEAR
OR ABOVE 30 PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 85 58 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 55 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 56 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 55 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 61 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 84 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 56 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 86 56 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 59 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 59 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...05
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