982
FXUS64 KEWX 011738
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1238 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER RESUMES SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
TODAY'S WEAK FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE ON ITS WAY OUT LATE IN THE EVENING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR
THE AUSTIN AREA AS OF NOON. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO STRADDLE THE
FRONTAL ZONE, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS COMPARED TO OTHER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM KAUS AND
VICINITY, AS WELL AS GOES/GPS-DERIVED DATA, CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
BAND OF 1.9 TO 2.1 INCH PWATS ALONG THE FRONT. THUS, SOME HEAVIER
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP STORMS MOVING ALONG, BUT THE MOIST AIR COULD
SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS GETTING AROUND 3 INCHES OF RAIN.
THUS, THERE IS SOME MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. MODELS HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR WESTERN AREAS OVER THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NEAR US90 FOR THESE POCKETS OF
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ONLY BE A SMALL
MINORITY OF TOTALS AS MOST WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
RAINFALL, AND MANY WON'T RECEIVE ANY RAIN TODAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
THE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL NATURE OF TODAY'S SETUP SUPPORTS A SINGLE
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL BE FADING AWAY TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEP SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND LOWER COASTAL PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS COULD
SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS BETWEEN ZAVALA
COUNTY EASTWARD TO DEWITT COUNTY, BUT BY THEN DRIER AIR WILL BE MORE
PROMINENT ALOFT AND WE DON'T ANTICIPATE ANY NOTEWORTHY RAIN AMOUNTS
FROM THAT ACTIVITY. FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, THAT DRIER AIR
AND THE RETURN OF SUNNIER SKIES WILL HELP DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT INTO
THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WEEKS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WON'T HAVE MUCH DIFFICULTY REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 FOR
MANY. WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO VARY MUCH,
THE DRIEST POST-FRONTAL AIR SWINGS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, LEADING TO LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 70S. A FEW OF THE COOLER
SPOTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY MIGHT SNEAK INTO THE UPPER 60S BEFORE DAWN
ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT OFFERED JUST ENOUGH WIGGLE ROOM FOR
TODAY'S FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WILL BE RESTRENGTHENING OVER TEXAS
NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A SMALL SEABREEZE
SHOWER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS, THAT SHOULD SQUELCH RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AND DEW POINTS WILL STEADILY
CLIMB, RESULTING IN MORE HOT AND HUMID AIR. HIGHS WILL STAY IN
THE 90S TO LOW 100S WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES AROUND 98 TO 106 FOR
MOST AREAS EACH DAY. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY AND STAY
COOL AND HYDRATED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE WEAK COOL FRONT HAS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS AUS FROM
ONLY ABOUT 15-20 MILES OUT, BUT WE THINK THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW GOING AND WILL HOLD OFF A PROB30 GROUP UNTIL
20Z. MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS THAT WE ARE MORE WORRIED ABOUT THE GUST
POTENTIAL LATER TODAY THAN THE LIGHTNING IN THE NEAR TERM, BUT WILL
WATCH THE RADAR CLOSELY JUST THE SAME. COVERAGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE QUESTIONABLE WHEN THE ACTIVITY GETS CLOSER TO SAT/SSF AROUND 21Z
TO 23Z, AND AGAIN WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. DRT IS SHOWN BY THE HI-
RES DATA TO BE THE LAST TO BE REACHED, BUT ALSO THE MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED, WARRANTING A TEMPO GROUP. MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD WIND DOWN BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z, AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A
LIGHT N OR E BREEZE IS DEPICTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF
PERIODS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 100 75 102 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 100 75 102 / 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 99 75 101 / 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 98 73 100 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 101 76 102 / 30 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 98 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 99 75 100 / 30 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 100 75 101 / 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 100 75 102 / 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 79 100 77 101 / 20 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 100 77 101 / 30 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...18
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