496
FXUS64 KEWX 012331
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
531 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WITH LOW RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE DOME OF COLD AIR HELPING TO DELIVER SUNDAY MORNING'S HARD FREEZE
IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TONIGHT, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST. SLIGHT MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACCOMPANYING THE RETURN FLOW AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH
SUPPORTIVE HYDROLAPSES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG MONDAY
MORNING MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
BETWEEN THE LATE-MORNING AND MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OVERHEAD RIDGE PASSING OVER THE REGION SHOULD
KEEPS RAIN CHANCES LOW DESPITE THE UPTICK IN MOISTURE. THE WARMER
AIRMASS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE RESPONSIVE TO THE POSITIVE THERMAL
ADVECTION EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER, SO HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MOST, ASIDE FROM PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S MOST OF THE DAY.
HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
APPROACHING THE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST WILL STRENGTHEN THE LOW-
LEVEL JET OVER THE REGION. IN RESPONSE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE MUCH MORE MILD, SWINGING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH
THE MILDEST CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND THE COOLEST ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOST APPARENT BELOW 700MB IS
FORECAST TO DIVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE POSITIVE TILT
AND SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE IMPULSE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT IN THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS, SO THE REGION OF ASCENT FAVORING RAINFALL HAS
REMAINED DIFFUSE AND DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IS FORECAST
PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR
TUESDAY, SHIFTING SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TO THE WEST, DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIMITS RAIN CHANCES,
AND A MODEST COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS.
DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN
OF WESTERN RIDGE, EASTERN TROUGH THAT THE LOWER 48 HAS GROWN
ACCUSTOMED TO SINCE MID-JANUARY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. THIS WILL
HELP SUPPORT A STRETCH OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY'S
DISTURBANCE. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
(WITH 20 TO 40 PERCENT OF MODELS SHOWING FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU). THE STRENGTH AND
STAYING POWER OF THAT COLD MAY BE BLUNTED BY A REX BLOCK PATTERN
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
RIDGE AND WARMER COMPONENT OF THAT REX BLOCK IS FORECAST TO SLOSH
EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS TO END THE WEEK, LEADING TO A RESURGENT
WARMING TREND OVER OUR AREA. THE CURRENT MODEL BLEND INDICATES HIGHS
IN THE 70S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
THE STRENGTH OF THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS CAUSES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD,
BUT OVERALL THE GENERAL ENSEMBLE ENVELOP FAVORS A WARMER PERIOD
ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SOUTHERLY WIND BECOMING LIGHT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
TERMINALS. GUIDANCE BRINGS BACK LOW CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR LOW CEILINGS IN THE WEST ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE, INCLUDING KDRT, AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WHERE FOG IS
ALSO LIKELY. IT IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ABOUT WHEN ANY LOW
CEILINGS REACH I-35 TERMINALS, SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS
WITH THIS UPDATE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO
RETURN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH LOW CEILINGS REDEVELOP AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 39 69 56 71 / 0 0 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 35 69 56 72 / 0 0 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 37 68 55 72 / 0 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 37 67 54 67 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 39 67 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 37 69 56 70 / 0 0 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 36 65 52 73 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 36 69 56 72 / 0 0 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 37 70 58 72 / 0 0 10 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 40 67 56 71 / 0 0 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 39 68 57 74 / 0 0 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...27
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