875  
FXUS64 KEWX 121156 AAA  
AFDEWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
556 AM CST WED FEB 12 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED FEB 12 2025  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- LIGHT TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND COASTAL PLAINS FOR THE REST OF  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE 6 AM CST HOUR  
 
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FOR THE REST OF THE  
OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO THE 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME (CAN'T RULE  
OUT ISOLATED SPOTS WITH DENSE FOG FOR A FEW HOURS)  
 
- MID TO LATE MORNING CLEARING AND THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD IN THE  
AFTERNOON TO LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S  
 
- A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND OVER THE REST OF THE LOCAL AREA  
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING  
 
- MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE HILL  
COUNTRY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU  
 
- A COOL THURSDAY AWAITS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S  
 
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND  
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH  
 
LIGHT TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE  
35 AND COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH DAY-BREAK. CLOUD COVERAGE BEGINS TO  
DISSIPATE MID TO LATE MORNING OUT WEST AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD  
TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON. TODAY'S HIGHS ARE  
FORECASTED TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S.  
 
THESE WARM CONDITIONS ARE SHORT-LIVED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES  
OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS ARE LIKELY DROPPING TO THE LOWER 30S FOR A LIGHT FREEZE OVER  
THE HILL COUNTRY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE  
REST OF THE LOCAL AREA STAYS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.  
 
EXPECT A COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THERE IS A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE AND AREAS  
TO THE NORTHEAST AS FAR AS THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA. IF THE SHOWER  
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS IS BECAUSE OF THE HELP GETTING FROM PASSING SHORT  
WAVE DISTURBANCES FROM ALOFT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST WED FEB 12 2025  
 
KEY MESSAGES...  
 
- UNSEASONABLY COOL, EXCEPT UNSEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY AND TUESDAY  
 
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO SATURDAY MORNING AND LATE  
TUESDAY EAST  
 
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WEST  
 
A FEW SPOTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY MAY APPROACH FREEZING EARLY FRIDAY  
MORNING. THEN, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON  
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE RETURNING SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW RESULTS  
IN EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WHICH MAKES TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM.  
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE DUE TO VERY  
WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FORTUNATELY,  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY THAT TIME.  
 
A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY. FORCING BY THE  
FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO TO AREAS  
EAST OF I-35 IN THE MORNING. IN ITS WAKE, WESTERLY WINDS RESULT IN A  
WARM UP TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS  
INTO OUR AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON, HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE TEENS  
AND 20S WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY ACROSS THE HILL  
COUNTRY, EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. AS A RESULT,  
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.  
 
THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT MOVING  
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION  
DROPS TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN. FREEZES ARE EXPECTED  
IN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE ESCARPMENT SUNDAY MORNING  
AND MOST AREAS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM EACH  
DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON MONDAY LEADING TO A WARM UP TO ABOVE  
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY. THEN, ANOTHER CANADIAN COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY  
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES YET AGAIN. OF NOTE, JUST  
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL  
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING PER THE GFS.  
HOWEVER, THIS IS RECENT DEVELOPMENT AND WILL WAIT FOR MODEL  
CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS BEFORE MENTIONING. CHECK BACK FOR THE  
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST WED FEB 12 2025  
 
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 17Z/18Z FOR AREA  
TERMINALS. ONE THING TO MENTION IS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE HILL COUNTRY AS OF 1140Z. IT'S GOING TO  
BE A CLOSE CALL AS FAR AS HOW CLOSE THE ACTIVITY PASSES TO THE  
VICINITY OF KAUS. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND THESE FAST MOVING SHOWERS  
AND STORMS, DECIDED TO KEEP OUT FROM KAUS TAF. AFTERWARD, CIGS AND  
VSBYS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS.  
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS AROUND 01Z/02Z  
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25  
KNOTS. STAYS BREEZY ALL NIGHT.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 35 47 39 / 10 0 10 0  
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 35 48 38 / 10 0 10 0  
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 79 38 50 39 / 10 0 20 0  
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 32 46 36 / 0 0 10 0  
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 46 58 44 / 0 0 10 0  
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 32 46 37 / 10 0 10 0  
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 41 54 41 / 0 0 20 0  
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 36 48 38 / 10 0 20 0  
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 38 49 39 / 30 0 10 0  
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 39 51 41 / 0 0 20 0  
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 81 41 52 42 / 0 0 20 0  
 

 
   
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT-TERM...17  
LONG-TERM...04  
AVIATION...17  
 
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