453
FXUS64 KEWX 040602
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
102 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM (15-45%) RAIN AND STORM CHANCES TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND; FEW LOCALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TODAY MAY LEAD TO NUISANCE
PONDING OR MINOR FLOODING.
- MOISTURE LEVELS STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
- ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT CONTINUES WITH ELEVATED HEAT INDICES, MOSTLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
LEFTOVER MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF EDOUARD DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GET AN EARLY START WHERE A CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS DEVELOP LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE MORNING, WITH AN INITIAL FOCUS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
AND EASTERN COUNTIES, INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AREA. THE ACTIVITY WITH
TIME GRADUALLY LOOKS TO TREND TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A
DECLINE IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A PRIMARILY FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY CONCENTRATING OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. PWATS WILL RESIDE IN THE 1.8 TO 2.1 INCH RANGE. THIS WILL
SUPPORT THE ABILITY FOR ANY HEAVIER STORM CELLS TO PRODUCE A QUICK
INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS. IN THESE CASES, THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR FLOODING. WPC DOES
HIGHLIGHT A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
BEYOND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE AND SOME OF
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY, NOW MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTWEST LINGERS FOR
SATURDAY TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PRIMARILY FOCUS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS.
WITH AN EARLY START TO ACTIVITY TODAY AND CLOUD COVER SPREADING OVER
THE REGION, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TREND LOWER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS. WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MAINLY FOR THIS
REGION. FARTHER WEST, WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED, HIGHS LOOK TO
APPROACH OR ENTER THE TRIPLE DIGITS. SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH MORE SUN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
WAIT UNTIL PEAK DAYTIME HEATING BEFORE DEVELOPING UNLIKE TODAY'S
MORNING FORECAST FOR EARLY DAY ACTIVITY. WHILE THIS MORNING'S LOWS
BEGIN VERY WARM AND MUGGY FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES, LOWS
ENTERING SATURDAY MORNING LOOK TO TREND A LITTLE LOWER, WITH MOST IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK WITH PWATS
SITTING NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (1.7 TO 1.9
INCHES) IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS IS INFLUENCED BY A
TUTT LOW AND WEAK INVERTED TROUGHING THAT ADVANCES WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF TOWARDS TEXAS FROM SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY. THIS AND A
PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW HELPS TO
PROMOTE DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEA BREEZE RAIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS. ELSEWHERE, CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK ARE QUITE
MINIMAL. ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AND ELEVATED HEAT INDICES THAT REACH INTO THE
103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE FOR MANY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-35.
OVERNIGHTS STAY WARM AND HUMID AS WELL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST THE I-35 TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A TEMPO GROUP FOR AUS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY
INCLUDING HE AUSTIN METRO AREA AND LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 77. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SOUTHEAST ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. KDRT STAYS VFR FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 95 76 98 76 / 30 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 95 76 97 75 / 30 10 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 97 75 / 20 10 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 95 74 / 50 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 78 99 77 / 10 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 93 75 96 75 / 40 0 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 97 74 / 20 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 95 74 97 74 / 20 10 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 95 76 96 76 / 30 10 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 95 76 97 77 / 20 10 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 97 77 99 77 / 20 10 20 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...17
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