075
FXUS64 KEWX 281758
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1158 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (UP TO 60%) FOR RAIN AND STORMS MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
A PATTERN OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS
CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND, MAINTAINING THE PATTERN OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS AS WE ENTER MARCH. DEW POINTS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE AS MORE GULF MOISTURE FLUXES INTO THE AREA, SO LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE MILD. ANOTHER ROUND OF MORNING FOG IS
POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAINS, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND HILL
COUNTRY WITH MIST POSSIBLE ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT, THOUGH
MODELED HUMIDITY PROFILES AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WINDS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY
LESS FAVORABILITY FOR FOG COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
THE ADDED MOISTURE SHOULD HELP TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY, BUT IT'LL STILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S. A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COURTESY OF THERMAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY WILL
GENERATE A STEADY SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO THE 25-30
MPH RANGE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. RINSE AND REPEAT
WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MILD CONDITIONS AND CLOUDINESS
CONTINUING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
THE DRY WEATHER EXPERIENCED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE PAST
WEEK WAS IN LARGE PART DUE TO A STATIONARY RIDGE THAT HAS REMAINED
NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA SINCE LAST MONDAY. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MEXICO AND
INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO GAIN A MORE
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ASPECT MORE FAVORABLE TO DEEPER MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR AREA. THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE KEEPING OUR
AREA WARM LIKELY WON'T BUDGE MUCH DURING THE WEEK, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE EACH DAY, ALONG
WITH NOCTURNAL GUSTINESS ON RIDGETOPS.
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, A TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY ABOUT
MIDWEEK. THIS IS DEPICTED ACROSS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE, THOUGH THE
GFS/GEFS TEND TO PROJECT A FASTER AND LESS IMPACTFUL TROUGH FOR
OUR AREA THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS. THE ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD FORCE AN
UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY, BUT EVENTUALLY A
WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY SAG CLOSE TO OUR AREA AROUND
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. MODEST FORCING, SHEAR, AND WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, SPECIFICS ON CONVECTIVE
MODE AND SHOWER COVERAGE ARE STILL UNCLEAR GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE FRONT AND TROUGH POSITIONING.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUPPORTS ANOTHER FAVORABLE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN OPENING NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LAST THROUGH THE 18Z HOUR FOR KDRT. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER, LOW CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SPREADS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED OVER SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE AUSTIN AND
SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM AS FAR AS MVFR AND
IFR CIGS MAKING IT TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS AND KDRT. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON IFR VSBYS FOR ALL TERMINALS DUE TO PATCHY FOG.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A LIGHTER SOUTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL AREA AIRPORTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 60 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 58 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 80 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 63 83 62 86 / 0 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 58 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 59 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 58 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 59 83 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 61 83 62 84 / 0 0 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 62 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...17
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