981
FXUS64 KEWX 020614
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1214 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS MID-WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WE BEGIN A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT'S BASICALLY A RINSE
AND REPEAT KIND OF PATTERN WITH CLOUDY SKIES IN THE EVENINGS AND
SUNNY SKIES WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR OUR AREA WITH MID TO UPPER 80S LIKELY BOTH
DAYS AND LOWS ONLY DROPPING IN THE LOW 60S. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL
BE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AS WE REMAIN IN A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
THE LONG TERM IS WHERE OUR QUIET AND PREDICTABLE WEATHER PATTERN
REALLY CHANGES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT US VERY WARM THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WHICH ALSO
BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT BUT COULD REMAIN THE FOCUS OF POTENTIAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER, AS IS THE CASE
WITH THESE SYSTEMS THE BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO STAY TO THE NORTH OF
US. REGARDLESS, THE BUILDING INSTABILITY AND THE MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS AND WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY. WE EXPECT TO SEE
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A TROUGH OUT TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO EJECT PIECES OF
ENERGY OUR WAY THUS HELPING TO SPARK OFF BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS.
EVENTUALLY, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA AND THIS COULD BE THE
BETTER FORCING NEEDED TO SPARK OFF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
SINCE WE REMAIN IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL. THE CAVEAT
RIGHT NOW IS THERE IS VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY HOW THIS ALL UNFOLDS AS
MODELS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN EVEN MORE ACTIVE PERIOD JUST BEYOND THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WAVY IN NATURE
HELPING TO BRING MORE DISTURBANCES ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER, AT THIS
POINT IT'S STILL VERY FAR OUT BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE SPREAD TO AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AND WILL GET
TO DRT CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO IFR IN SAN ANTONIO LATER TONIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS. ALL
TERMINALS WILL REBOUND TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS IN AUSTIN AND
SAN ANTONIO WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT DRT
THEY WILL BE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 82 63 87 67 / 0 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 61 88 65 / 10 0 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 61 86 65 / 10 0 0 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 80 61 84 65 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 62 88 65 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 59 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 83 61 88 65 / 10 10 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 62 87 67 / 0 0 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 63 87 66 / 0 10 0 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 63 88 67 / 0 0 0 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...05
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