600
FXUS64 KEWX 211739
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1239 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY.
- ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
A COMPLEX OF STORMS JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND A STRONG COMPLEX
FURTHER SOUTH ARE NOTED ON RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST HAS EVOLVED WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN ONLY SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE, MODERATE
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE GAP IN THESE SYSTEMS. OUR AREA MAY
MOSTLY BE RAIN-FREE BY SUNRISE LEAVING A CHALLENGING DAYTIME
FORECAST IN PLACE AS MORE ENERGY MAY BE AROUND TO REDEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR FOR THIS POTENTIAL TODAY. ANY OUTFLOWS COULD ALSO PROVIDE
THE TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE SO MANY WILL
STILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS. FOR STORMS THAT DO FORM, CONTINUED HIGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, A LEVEL 1 OF 5
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS SEEN IN THE FAR WEST ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TODAY WITH ANY
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY AND COULD INITIATE
STORMS OUT WEST WHICH WOULD MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS POTENTIAL WITH STORMS WAKENING
BEFORE THEY MAKE MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD LEAVING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS REMAIN BETWEEN A DEPARTING DISTURBANCE IN
THE EAST AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WEST OF TEXAS SO HAVE TRENDED NBM
POPS DOWN DURING THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
LIKELY EVEN BEYOND THE OFFICIAL SEVEN DAY FORECAST. SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING FOR
DISTURBANCES TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY,CONTINUED
AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE KEEPS THE FUEL FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.
AS EACH ROUND OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS BEHIND THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF
DRY WEATHER AS WELL AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES. SO WHILE
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER ARE ALSO EXPECTED. AS EACH ROUND
HELPS DETERMINE THE SET UP FOR THE NEXT, IT'S HARD TO SAY WITH
CONFIDENCE EXACTLY WHEN DRY AND WET PERIODS WILL BE, HENCE, THE
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES. IN THIS PATTERN, THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
IS THE MAIN ONE TO WATCH AS DETAILS CAN BE BETTER REALIZED.
THAT SAID, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODELS THAT A TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT, LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THIS
MAIN FEATURE COULD KICK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY THOUGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MORE FAVORS
LOCATIONS FROM THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY. AGAIN, DETAILS WILL BE REFINED WITH EACH
PASSING FORECAST BUT THE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY TIMEFRAME DOES LOOK
TO BE ONE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STORMY CONDITIONS.
THE FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE COMPLICATED AS AN UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER TEXAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP WILL PLAY A ROLE IN RAIN
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER TROUGH THEN DIGS OVER THE
WESTERN US TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MOVING OUR STALLED
SYSTEM ALONG BUT REESTABLISHING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
AGAIN.
EVERY RAIN EVENT WILL BRING SOILS CLOSER TO SATURATION INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR RUN OFF WHICH CAN LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OR
RIVER FLOODING. FLOOD WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AS WE
PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST AND ALWAYS HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNING INFORMATION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE SAN ANTONIO
AND AUSTIN AREA TERMINALS. THEN VFR CATEGORY IS PROJECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THAT SAID, INCLUDED A PROB30
GROUP FOR KDRT LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE I-35 AIRPORTS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 88 72 84 / 30 20 20 90
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 87 71 83 / 30 20 20 90
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 86 70 83 / 30 20 20 90
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 85 69 81 / 30 20 30 90
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 89 70 85 / 30 0 40 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 86 70 82 / 30 10 30 90
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 85 69 81 / 30 10 50 90
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 87 71 83 / 30 20 20 90
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 86 72 83 / 30 30 20 90
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 87 72 83 / 30 20 30 90
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 87 72 83 / 30 20 30 90
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ171>173-186>194-204>209-219>225.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...17
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