638
FXUS64 KEWX 072328
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
628 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER NEXT WEEK WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY.
- MAINLY SEABREEZE OR STORMS NEXT WEEK FAVORED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STABLE MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL SET THE TUNE FOR
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE BUT HOT AND HUMID WEATHER HEADING THROUGH THE WEEK.
A HUMID PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS INTACT ALONG THE WESTERN
GULF, SO OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY WITH
THE SEABREEZE REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE EVENING
WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOUR.
DEW POINTS REMAIN ON THE HIGHER END OF THE TYPICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL
DISTRIBUTION, SO LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S THROUGHOUT SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE REBOUNDING. HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 90S AREAWIDE WITH HEAT INDICES
CRESTING INTO THE UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS, SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH LESS CIRRUS. ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS ARE AGAIN
PROBABLE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A LOWER CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE LATER MONDAY EVENING AS GULF MOISTURE
POOLS AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER MEXICO.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
RIDGING ALOFT AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WILL MAINTAIN
REPETITIVE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RISE AS MID-LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN
RESPONSE TO A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THUS, OUR
DAILY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREEP UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S. WHILE A LACK OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED
TO PREVENT AIR TEMPERATURES FROM RISING QUICKER, THE TRADEOFF IS
THAT THE DAMP GULF AIR WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON FOR MANY. THERMAL RELIEF EACH NIGHT WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO ONLY
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST EACH MORNING,
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH COULD
IMPACT THOSE MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAT OR WITHOUT ADEQUATE ACCESS TO
COOLING AND HYDRATION.
FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS, LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN
THE PICTURE EACH DAY, TYPICALLY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWER WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. UNLESS A MORE OPPORTUNISTIC SEABREEZE
SHOWER SPILLS INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR, AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL
PLAINS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THIS WEEK.
WITH CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE AREA, LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEK.
HOWEVER, A GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE AXIS OF TROUGHING FROM THE ROCKIES
TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FROM BROAD VORTICITY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COULD SUPPORT
SLIGHTLY MORE VARIABLE WEATHER NEXT WEEK FOR MID-JUNE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHOULD WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT BUT
REMAIN AROUND 5-12 KNOTS THROUGH SUNRISE. MVFR CEILINGS QUICKLY
DEVELOP AROUND 04Z AT I-35 TERMINALS, EVENTUALLY SPREADING WEST TO
KDRT AROUND 10Z. CEILINGS MAY BE CLOSE TO IFR NEAR KSAT/KSSF WHERE
TEMPO GROUPS REMAIN FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. USED A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST TO HAVE CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH AROUND 17-18Z AT SITES
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BREEZY
WIND. SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IF THEY MAKE IT TO I-35
TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 76 91 75 / 10 0 20 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 77 91 75 / 10 0 20 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 90 75 90 74 / 10 0 20 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 75 90 73 / 0 0 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 96 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 76 90 74 / 0 0 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 91 76 90 75 / 10 0 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 76 90 75 / 10 0 20 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 76 90 75 / 40 0 20 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 77 90 76 / 10 0 20 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 76 90 75 / 10 0 20 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...27
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