224
FXUS64 KEWX 171104
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
504 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
- WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
- FIRST MEANINGFUL CHANCE AT RAINFALL IN WEEKS ARRIVES LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE LATEST GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR
HAS WORKED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. IN COMBINATION WITH A LACK OF
RAINFALL, CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS NORTH
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH, GUSTING TO 30MPH AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED. MORE
INFORMATION ON THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE SEEN IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S OVER THE HILL COUNTRY ON SATURDAY AND OUT OF THE 50S
ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE SATURDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD LOOSEN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PANHANDLE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST
LEGITIMATE WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WINTER
SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE QUICKLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT
WINDS, AND DRY AIR UNDER A SURFACE HIGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE 20S AREA WIDE, WITH A FEW LOW-LYING AREAS IN THE HILL
COUNTRY POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM BACK ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY, AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S AS WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RAMPS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE ONE STORM SYSTEM EARLY IN THE PERIOD THAT
MAY BRING SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAIN INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH'S DEPARTURE, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESUME, BUT MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW. ON
TUESDAY, A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO, AND RESULT
IN ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME MODERATE
RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW, RAIN CHANCES
LOOK BEST ALONG AND EAST OF I-35, BUT TRENDS IN THE TRACK OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
EAST BY THURSDAY WILL ANOTHER COLD FRONT, THIS TIME WEAKER, MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW QUICKLY RESUMES ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE HILL COUNTRY
EAST. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 20-25 KNOTS AT I-35 TERMINALS
THROUGH 02-03Z, THEN WIND WEAKENS TO UNDER 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. DRT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GUST FREE WITH WINDS FROM
THE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE PLACES MUCH OF THE REGION, PARTICULARLY THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS WITHIN THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY. A COMBINATION OF MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 10-20 PERCENT, BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH, GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES, AND FREEZE CURED
GRASSES WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALL DAY
SATURDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
FROM 10AM TO 8PM SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL FINALLY
RETURN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 54 28 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 26 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 56 27 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 50 24 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 28 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 25 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 59 23 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 56 25 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 57 25 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 57 30 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 58 30 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ205-217>222-
228.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...27
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