594
FXUS64 KEWX 060611
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1211 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, GREATEST FOCUS TO THE EAST OF I-35.
- HOT, NEAR RECORD DAILY OR MONTHLY HIGHS, POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING
WINDY CONDITIONS, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND NEAR- CRITICAL
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN INTO MID-
MORNING WITH THE HREF/REFS PROBABILITIES AROUND 50-80% CHANCE OF
SEEING VISIBILITIES AT OR LESS THAN 1/2 OF A MILE FOR LOCATIONS TO
THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS IS WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 3 TO 9 AM. WE WILL MONITOR SURFACE CONDITIONS
AND WEBCAMS FOR ANY POSSIBLE NEED FOR A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE
ADVISORY ACROSS I-35 WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER IN THE 10-40%
RANGE FOR VISIBILITY AT OR LESS THAN 1/2 OF A MILE. FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AND YIELD TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A WEAKER SIGNAL EXISTS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME THAT CONCENTRATES SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM SAN ANTONIO EASTWARD. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN
STORY ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, WHICH MAY
NOT ONLY THREATEN DAILY RECORD HIGHS BUT THE MONTHLY ALL TIME
RECORDS AS WELL. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERING THE HILL COUNTRY ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD HELP CONTRIBUTE AND PUSH THE TEMPERATURES TO
THOSE RECORDS THROUGH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THAT SURFACE
BOUNDARY. WINDS BRIEFLY COULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
AN AMPLIFYING AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL ADVANCE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. OFTEN THE CASE WITH THESE FRONTS, MODELS ARE SHOWING A
QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME AND THE ADVECTION OF SOME STRONGER COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT IS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH STRONG
POST-FRONTAL DRY NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD PEAK INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE. THIS
COMBINES WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING BELOW 20% THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALMOST THE CERTAINTY FOR NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS COULD BE CONSIDERED AS THIS EVENT APPROACHES. DESPITE THE
COLDEST AIR WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM FOCUSING IN THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN US, EXPECT FOR ENOUGH COLD AIR TO SPILL ACROSS OUR
REGION TO ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S. MONDAY
LOOKS TO TREND AS THE COOLEST DAY AS A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING
FRONT ARRIVES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOW
40S. MONDAY WILL BE MORE ADVECTIVELY DRIVEN WITH THE LINGERING
NORTHERLY WINDS WHILE TUESDAY WOULD LIKELY BE THE MORE EFFECTIVE
NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION. NONETHELESS, BOTH NIGHTS OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A
LIGHT FREEZE WITHIN PROTECTED VALLEYS AND/OR RURAL AREAS. HAVE
ELECTED TO EXPLICITLY FORECAST A LIGHT FREEZE AT KAUS NOW FOR
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE COOLER AIRMASS LOOKS TO REMAIN SHORT LIVED AS A QUICK WARMUP
RETURNS BY MID TO LATE WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND THE BUILDING OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT FOR
HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
PRIMARY CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG JUST
EAST OF AREA TERMINALS. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS, BUT SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG COULD WORK INTO THE I-35
SITES TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT HAVE KEPT VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1SM AT AUS,
SAT, AND SSF FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING
WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
DRY WEATHER WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. RH MINIMUMS COULD FALL TO NEAR 15 TO 25 PERCENT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 90, LEADING TO LOCALLY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL
WINDS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S SUGGEST
THAT NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NEARING A
CERTAINTY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE FOR FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. THE DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WIND SPEEDS
SUBSIDE TO LOWER VALUES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY THUS REDUCING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
RECORD | FRIDAY | SATURDAY |
(11/07) (11/08)
AUS |89 2024 | 90 1989 |
ATT |89 1988 | 89 2024 |
SAT |88 2005 | 90 1989 |
DRT |92 1988 | 93 1980 |
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 85 61 90 59 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 59 89 56 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 84 58 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 83 59 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 87 57 91 56 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 60 89 55 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 58 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 60 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ193-194-
207>209-220>225.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...MMM
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