762
FXUS64 KEWX 021737 CCA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1137 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- BROKEN TO NEAR RECORD DAILY HIGHS AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
- ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH LOW
(20 TO 30%) CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURNING MID-TO-LATE WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES VERY WARM WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DAILY RECORD HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE EITHER
BROKEN OR AT LEAST APPROACHED AT ALL FOUR OF OUR CLIMATE SITES.
REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE SPECIFIC RECORDS AT
EACH SITE. GUSTS UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS, PLEASE ALSO SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION OF THE AFD DOWN BELOW. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SLACK
OFF NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET.
A MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER,
A MODEST COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE HELP FROM THE PUSH OF A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY ADVANCING FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO LOUISIANA. THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND
PICK UP INTO MODERATE RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS NOT IMPRESSIVE IN THE
TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT AT ALL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT DOES
ENOUGH TO BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR COMPARED TO TODAY. THE
HIGHS GENERALLY TREND IN THE 70S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY HOLD IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN MOST REACHES OF THE CWA. FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS,
UNFORTUNATELY, SHOULD STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME 80S. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PROMOTING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TREND FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS AND RETURNS OUT OF THE SOUTH FROM
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STEADY RETURN OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FROM EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S BY TUESDAY. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED MONDAY OR
TUESDAY, EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN LOCAL CLOUD COVER,
ESPECIALLY NOCTURNALLY.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A TROUGHING PATTERN ESTABLISH OVER
THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE AND
TURN THE FLOW ALOFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR REGION. LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING ENSEMBLE MEANS, HAVE COME INTO A
SLIGHTLY BETTER ALIGNMENT ON THE TIMING OF AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS OUR AREA. THE DISTURBANCE WILL LOOK TO HELP
DRAG A PACIFIC FRONT INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION WITH IT AS WELL.
ENOUGH MOISTURE HELPS POOL AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND FRONT TO
PROMOTE AT LEAST THE RETURN OF SOME LOW (20-30%) RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES, PEAKING SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DO THEN
LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE TROUGH PATTERN OUT WEST LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACTIVE AND COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AFTER THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITHIN THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR WITH FEW250 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY FEW-SCT
AT FL020-030 MAINLY CENTRAL TEXAS/KAUS SATURDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH FEW GUSTS TO 25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON, DECOUPLES TO LESS THAN 7 KTS THIS EVENING,
TURNS NW LATE TONIGHT, THEN INCREASES TO N AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE RESULT OF THE BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS FEATURING GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY, AREA FUEL MOISTURE HAS
CONTINUED TO DRY OUT WITHIN THE PAST WEEK AND LOCATIONS OVER THE
EASTERN HILL COUNTRY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE BECOME
FREEZE CURED. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL 6 PM. THE WINDS ARE TO
SUBSIDE BEYOND SUNSET WITH RECOVERING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS
FROM THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL UPTICK TO MODERATE LEVELS WITH WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO HELP KEEP THE MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS OF GENERALLY
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT. WHERE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
EXIST OUT WEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE, THE WINDS WILL OFFSET BY
REMAINING LIGHTER ACROSS THAT REGION. NONETHELESS, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH STILL IN PLACE FOR SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND THE DECREASED CONCERN
FOR FIRE WEATHER.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JANUARY 2ND
AUSTIN BERGSTROM 83 (2023)
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 (2023)
SAN ANTONIO 86 (2006)
DEL RIO 88 (2023)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 73 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 56 74 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 56 76 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 52 71 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 54 80 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 54 70 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 52 80 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 55 75 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 75 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 57 77 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 54 78 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...04
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