385
FXUS64 KEWX 211044
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
544 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SOGGY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY.
- COOL WEATHER CONTINUES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AND A WARMING TREND FOR LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE
AREA AT THIS HOUR WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AND PERHAPS DECREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE PUSHES OFF
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WE COULD SEE SOME MORE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS HALF OF THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST.
HOWEVER, THEY HAVEN'T EXACTLY DONE THE BEST JOB REGARDING
YESTERDAY'S ACTIVITY AND EVEN LAST NIGHT'S SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO PLAYING OUT IS LOW. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY PICKS UP IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE BASICALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR AREA. THIS
DOES MAKE SENSE AS VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA HELPING TO SET UP A POSSIBLE BOUNDARY SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT
OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THIS ONE HOWEVER, WOULD POSSIBLY BE LOCATED
FURTHER NORTH AND IMPACTING AREAS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND AREAS
EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE HREF PMM 24 HOUR QPF IS STILL
SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF 2-3 INCHES IN THIS AREA. CERTAINLY SOMETHING
THAT BEARS WATCHING ESPECIALLY IF WE HAVE A SIMILAR SETUP LIKE WE
HAD OVER BEXAR, COMAL, AND PARTS OF GUADALUPE COUNTY YESTERDAY.
EXPECT RAIN COOLED AIR AND CAA ONCE AGAIN TO LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH MOST BARELY HITTING 70 DEGREES. MAIN EXCEPTION
WOULD BE FOR THOSE UNDER A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE RIDGE OUT WEST. AS A
RESULT, AREAS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
CAN EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES DECREASE SOMEWHAT BEFORE A SECOND
WAVE OF ENERGY MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA HELPING TO KICK OFF MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WITH OUR OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT
TYPE PATTERN STILL CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE FINALLY START
TO DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
CONTINUING TO SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD FINISH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOST PRECIPITATION
FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF OUR AREA. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A MUCH DRIER DAYS AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS AND WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED STREAMER
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP
NICELY BACK INTO THE MID 80S ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 80S BY
FRIDAY. OUR QUIETER AND DRIER WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED AS A TROUGH OUT
WEST BEGINS TO DEEPEN HELPING TO BRING US BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW.
AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY GIVEN THE SETUP IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS ARE IFR/LIFR AND WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN AT THAT POINT THEY WILL ONLY IMPROVE
AROUND ONE CATEGORY. VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO REDUCED THIS MORNING IN
FOG AND OCCASIONAL RAIN. THIS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERY LOW
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. DRT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THE EVENING, BUT THEN
DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 63 82 67 / 90 30 50 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 63 82 67 / 90 30 50 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 63 82 66 / 80 30 50 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 62 79 65 / 80 30 30 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 68 83 68 / 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 62 80 67 / 90 40 40 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 65 82 65 / 40 30 20 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 63 81 66 / 80 30 50 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 63 81 67 / 80 30 60 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 65 82 67 / 70 30 50 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 67 83 67 / 60 30 50 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...05
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