115
FXUS64 KEWX 130540
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1240 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NEAR THE RIO GRANDE TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF OUR AREA, CARVING OUT MARGINALLY MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR BEHIND
IT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM ABOUT 1.8
INCHES TO A STILL MOIST BUT MORE PALATABLE 1.2-1.4 INCHES. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS, BUT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL SUPPORT A GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS BEFORE MIXING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. LATER IN
THE DAY, SUFFICIENT HEATING SUPPORTS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO, ALONG WITH
A MARGINAL RISK FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. SOME OF THESE MAY DRIFT
TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU NEAR SUNSET.
HOWEVER, MORE STABLE CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THESE
STORMS RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED WITH MOST NOT MAKING IT VERY FAR INTO
OUR AREA.
CONDITIONS TUESDAY SUPPORT A SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO MONDAY, WITH
INITIATION ALONG THE DRY LINE POSSIBLE LATER IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE IS THAT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE AREA, DRIVING MORE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FAVORING AN UPTICK IN
STORM COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE RELATIVE TO MONDAY. HIGHS BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH HUMID AIR
PREVAILING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
A PROMINENT PORTION OF VORTICITY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE APPROACH OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR AREA
WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. THE FAVORED
AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR REGION, BUT
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW EXTENSION OF POTENTIALLY A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS EXTENDING TO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOMETIME LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ISOLATED THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AFTER THIS
MIDWEEK ACTION, BRIEF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN ITS WAKE LOOKS TO
PROVIDE A BRIEF WINDOW OF RESPITE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER ON
THURSDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK, AS THE BROAD WESTERN US TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER EAST, ENSEMBLES
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A DECENTLY STRONG MID-APRIL COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE ON THIS FRONT, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO
GAUGE THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN RISK. A PERIOD OF BELOW-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AIR SPILLING
SOUTH FROM THE ROCKIES, SWITCHING UP THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS TO A DRIER AND COOLER ONE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MONDAY. FOR KDRT, MVFR AND IFR ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 09Z AND END BY 18Z MONDAY. AFTERWARD, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
THE EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE I-35 SITES BY
MIDNIGHT/05Z TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED A PROB30 FOR POSSIBLE TSRA AT KDRT
FROM 03Z TO 06Z TUESDAY AS STORMS MOVE FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INCLUDING DEL RIO. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF
8 TO 12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GUSTS OF 18 KNOTS AND UP TO 24 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 69 84 68 / 20 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 67 84 68 / 20 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 84 68 84 68 / 20 10 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 83 67 81 67 / 10 10 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 70 84 69 / 10 30 40 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 67 82 67 / 10 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 66 84 66 / 20 10 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 68 84 68 / 20 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 69 85 68 / 20 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 69 84 69 / 20 10 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 69 85 69 / 20 10 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...17
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