774
FXUS64 KEWX 221759
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1259 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.
- ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
THERE IS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER TEXAS. THE LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS MORNING THE DRT
SOUNDING MEASURED 1.30" OF PW. THE GOES DERIVED PW IMAGE SHOWS UP TO
1.70" OVER OUR COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING PW
NEAR AND ABOVE 1.5" FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS TO HILL COUNTRY. OUR
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3" ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A FEW SPOTS COULD RECEIVE
UP TO 6". AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PATTERN TONIGHT BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST PLACES WILL NOT GET ANY RAIN, BUT WITH THE HIGH PW AIR STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH WITH STRONG STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THERE IS ALSO SOME CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. OUR AIRMASS WILL BE ABOUT THE
SAME AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. MONDAY IS
LOOKING LIKE A MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
TEXAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PW WILL AGAIN BE 1.5+" AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE EAST ON
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
FOR KAUS, KSAT, AND KSSF, MVFR CIGS COULD LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO
OR THROUGH 19Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
LOCAL AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS RETURN
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID AND LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SIGNAL OF IFR FOR THE SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW,
THEREFORE, KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS. A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW
IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WAITING FOR
ANOTHER CYCLE TO INCLUDE ANY STORM ACTIVITY AS PART OF THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 84 69 84 / 20 70 50 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 84 69 83 / 20 70 50 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 83 68 84 / 20 60 40 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 82 67 82 / 20 70 30 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 88 68 90 / 10 40 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 83 68 82 / 20 70 40 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 70 82 66 84 / 30 60 40 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 83 68 84 / 20 70 40 50
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 84 69 82 / 20 70 60 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 83 69 85 / 30 60 40 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 83 69 84 / 30 60 50 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ171>173-186>194-204>209-219>225.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page