368
FXUS64 KEWX 082335
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
635 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
NEAR SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS PATTERN BRINGS
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON REMAINING
INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEFORE WE HEAD INTO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD
COVER TO DEVELOP OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT BRINGING
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. EXPECT SOME STREAMER SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN WE SEE PEAK HEATING. WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND FORCING THIS DAY, EXPECT
STORMS TO BE DISORGANIZED AND NON-SEVERE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN US FRIDAY,
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL SET UP OUR RAIN CHANCES THAT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA. WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND A DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY FAVORED IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
TO THURSDAY, ANY ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DISORGANIZED AND NON-SEVERE
THIS DAY.
OUR SET UP EVOLVES OVER THE WEEKEND AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH
BRINGING A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR AREA. ON
SATURDAY, THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR A DRYLINE WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
INTO THIS LOCATION DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD OF
THIS ACTIVITY THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THEY FORM IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. OUR SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH SPC
HIGHLIGHTING THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND
PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND, STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
WE CONTINUE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE MAIN TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND FLOODING, THOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AT THIS
TIME. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, KEEP UP WITH
THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
VFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER 06Z,
CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BEGIN LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR AND IFR.
STATISTICAL AIDS AND HI-RES MODELS SHOW FASTEST ONSET OF THESE
CIGS AT KSAT/KSSF AND VICINITY, FOLLOWED BY KDRT AND KAUS. OVER 60
PERCENT OF MODELS SHOW IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT TAF SITES. MODELS
HINT AT LIFR POTENTIAL MAINLY 11Z-15Z BETWEEN KAUS AND KSAT AND
CENTERED NEAR KHYI, WHICH COULD BE INTRODUCED IN LATER TAFS SHOULD
AREAL EXTENT INCREASE. CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR AND THEN VFR
BY 21Z, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 21Z THROUGHOUT THE AREA. EXPECT STEADY
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL, MOSTLY UNDER 10 KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 61 83 64 83 / 10 20 30 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 59 83 63 82 / 10 20 30 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 59 82 63 82 / 10 40 40 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 59 80 62 80 / 0 20 20 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 80 65 81 / 10 40 40 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 82 63 81 / 0 20 20 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 60 80 62 80 / 10 40 40 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 83 63 82 / 10 30 30 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 59 83 64 82 / 10 30 20 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 82 64 82 / 0 40 40 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 82 65 82 / 0 40 40 60
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...TRAN
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