632
FXUS64 KEWX 222346
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION (18Z TAFS)
KEY MESSAGES
- LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
TODAY.
- SHOWERY WEATHER WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE LESSENING TONIGHT.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR
EXCEEDING 100F.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
OUR ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS HAS FULLY ERODED, WITH WARM AND MOIST
GULF AIR NOW FIRMLY SITUATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. DAYTIME
HEATING HAS ALREADY ENABLED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE US77 CORRIDOR. HI-RES MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING CONTINUED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS BUT POTENTIALLY SCOOTING CLOSER TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR WITH TIME. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT NEARLY AS
SATURATED AS ON PREVIOUS DAYS, SLOW STORM MOTIONS UNDER 15 MPH
AGAINST THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EVENING IF STORMS BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
ESTABLISHED (WITH POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHLY LOCALIZED MAX OF UP TO
ABOUT 4 INCHES). HIGHER CHANCES OF THIS ARE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS, WHERE SOME ISOLATED AND LOCALIZED FLOODING (MAINLY IN
CITIES AND TOWNS) COULD OCCUR IF A STORM PERSISTS. SEVERE WEATHER
IS UNLIKELY, BUT HIGH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND
SHEAR COULD BRIEFLY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY TO AREAL FOG IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY
MORNING, THOUGH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT AND
MAINLY FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. A LOBE OF WARM MID-
LEVEL AIR AND A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRIER DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S,
ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BREACHING INTO
THE 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FAVORS WARM AND GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 90S THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOONS WITH DEW POINTS ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE ARE FORECAST STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINATION COULD PUSH HEAT INDICES NEAR AND OVER
100F, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT FROM OUR
PRECEDING RAINS. IT COULD BE QUITE A QUICK SHIFT FROM OUR DAYS OF
COOLER WEATHER.
WHILE AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN KICKS OFF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US,
THE MAIN STORM TRACK FAVORS AREAS TO OUR NORTH, AND ENSEMBLE MEANS
HAVE KEPT MOSTLY QUIET REGARDING RAIN CHANCES IN OUR AREA AS CAPPING
WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG. SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRY LINE ACTION IS
POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD PRODUCE A LOW PROBABILITY CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS OR SEVERE WEATHER. A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN
CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STATIONARY
FRONT TO BAROCLINIC TROUGH BECOMES DRAPED NEARBY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER ANY SMALL
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME WELL-TIMED TO INTERSECT THIS
FRONT. THE CURRENT BLEND OF MODELS KEEPS RAIN CHANCES BELOW 20
PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TROUGHING GENERALLY PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN US THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EVENTUALLY, SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL LOW COULD
INCREASE OVER OUR AREA BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, PERHAPS SETTING UP
ANOTHER POSSIBLE PERIOD FOR GOOD RAINS BEYOND THE FORECAST WINDOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
WHILE DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT, LIFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT SAT AND SSF AFTER 11Z/12Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY
OUT OF THE ESE OR SSE AT 5-12 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MVFR CEILINGS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AT AUS, SAT, AND SSF AT 04Z/05Z AND
AT DRT BY 07Z. A QUICK DROP TO IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED BY
07Z-09Z. VISBY'S MAY DIP AS LOW AS A 1/2 MILE BRIEFLY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS ISSUANCE. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY AT ALL
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 85 70 88 / 10 0 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 66 84 69 87 / 10 0 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 84 68 86 / 20 0 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 82 68 87 / 0 0 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 88 70 91 / 0 0 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 83 68 87 / 0 0 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 83 68 85 / 10 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 84 68 87 / 10 10 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 84 69 87 / 10 0 0 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 84 70 86 / 10 0 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 71 87 / 10 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...MMM
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