468
FXUS64 KEWX 312332 CCA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- DRY AND HOT TODAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS.
- POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
AND SOUTH OF LOUISIANA TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES
THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH PTC 5 COULD IMPACT THE EASTERN
PART OF THE LOCAL AREA ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER MOST PLACES RANGE FROM ONE HALF INCH OR LESS WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES WESTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
MORNING CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO ERODE FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN, CLOUDS REDEVELOP MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND INCREASED MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE
GULF. WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY PERIOD TODAY, HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WITH THE SEABREEZE OVER PARTS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE, FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND UP TO 102 ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND UP TO 104 FOR
PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGE FROM
THE 103 TO 107. SOME AREAS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE COULD BRIEFLY GET INTO THE 108 TO 110 FOR AN HOUR OR
LESS.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES, INCREASED MOISTURE ARRIVES TO THE EASTERN PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS PTC 5 NEARS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 77
AS EARLY AS NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS IT NEARS THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
CAN'T RULE OUT A QUICK HEAVY DOWNPOUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING AN INCH OF RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS GETTING FROM LIMITED TO ONE HALF INCH.
TUESDAY'S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM THOSE TODAY DUE TO INCREASED
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVERAGE. TUESDAY'S HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO
UPPER 90S AND UP TO 103 OVER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
BY WEDNESDAY, THE REMNANTS OF PCT 5 ARE FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER
EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THAT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO AFFECT PART
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
77. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONCENTRATE TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND LIKELY TO AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
VERY SIMILAR FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD AT LEAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN ON
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE COASTAL PLAINS ALONG
WITH SEABREEZE ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
FEW TO SCT CLOUD COVER. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 WILL NEAR AND
ADVANCE INLAND FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. I'TS COMPACT WIND FIELD IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE FELT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
EASTERLY PREVAILING WINDS ON TUESDAY. ISOLATE TO SCATTERED -SHRA
MAY BE POSSIBLE EAST- SOUTHEAST OF KAUS BEYOND 18Z TUESDAY, BUT
PROBABILITY AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INSERT ANY INCLUSION
WITHIN THE TAF AT KAUS AT THIS TIME. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS AND POINTS WEST. OUTSIDE OF THE
SLIGHTLY BUMP UP IN WINDS AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO
TERMINALS WITH THE SEA BREEZES, EXPECT FOR WINDS TO REMAIN NEAR OR
BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 99 77 100 / 0 10 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 99 77 99 / 0 10 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 96 74 97 / 0 10 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 98 76 98 / 0 10 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 98 74 100 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 99 75 100 / 0 10 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 99 77 99 / 0 20 40 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 98 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 77 102 / 10 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...62
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