861
FXUS64 KEWX 041744
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- HOT AND DRY FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR A STORM OR TWO CAN'T
BE RULED OUT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW SPOTS COULD REACH 108 TO 110 HEAT
INDEX VALUES FOR A FEW HOURS. STAY HYDRATED.
- CONTINUED DRY WEATHER OVERALL WITH TYPICALLY AUGUST DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND UP TO 100-104 RANGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. CAN'T RULE OUT
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND AS IT
TRACKS INLAND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES AS OF 12:30 PM CDT, ARE SHOWING CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TO GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY LATE AFTERNOON, CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST.
HIRES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A STORM OR TWO
DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING (WHERE A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET OVER THIS AREA MAY HELP THIS ACTIVITY). SO,
I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED LOW POPS TO COVER THAT PROBABILITY. WHEN
LOOKING AT THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THEY SHOW AN INVERTED
V-SHAPED SUGGESTING MID LEVEL DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. IF A STORM MANAGES TO DEVELOP UNDER
THIS ENVIRONMENT, STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR SO COULD OCCUR
ALONG WITH A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. THEN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, CLOUDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 70S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK AND SOME MODELS SHOWING PATCHY FOG FOR
FEW HOURS, I WENT WITH IT.
CLOUDS DISSIPATE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS PROJECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND UP TO 103 OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WEDNESDAY'S UPPER LEVEL SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
A RAIN-FREE DAY, HOWEVER, A FEW SEABREEZE SHOWERS ALONG THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST IS A GOOD BET.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
CONTINUED DRY AND HOT FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE KEEPS THE CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A STORM OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 EACH
AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER SEABREEZE
FORMS AND DEVELOPS CONVECTION ALONG IT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING,
BUT ARE FINALLY SCATTERING OUT AT THIS HOUR. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
HOLD ON AT DRT FOR ANOTHER 30-60 MINUTES BEFORE FULLY SCATTERING
OUT. EXPECT SCATTERED VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH LIKELY
SKC TONIGHT , BUT POCKETS OF MVFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRATUS COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LOWER THAN THIS
MORNING AND HAVE ADDRESSED THE STRATUS POTENTIAL WITH A MENTION OF A
SCT-MVFR CATEGORY STARTING AROUND 10Z. ANY MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOWER
TO REACH DRT LATER IN THE MORNING.
HI-RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, FELT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WAS ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE A PROB30 AT THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS FROM 22-
01Z. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT CONSIDERING THE HOT ENVIRONMENT, FELT -TSRA IS
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 98 76 97 / 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 98 76 98 / 20 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 99 78 100 / 0 0 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 99 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...JD
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