113
FXUS64 KEWX 162315
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
615 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 615 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 7PM WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH.
- COOLER AIR USHERS INTO THE AREA AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS.
- A POTENTIAL RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS BEHIND OUR EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 850MB WILL CONTINUE TO SEND
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION, BUT CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ABOVE THE 500MB LEVEL.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN STRONG BEYOND THE EXPIRATION OF THE WIND
ADVISORY, BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS SLIP
BELOW 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AFTER SUNSET AND GUSTS START TO FALL TO
LESS THAN 35 MPH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
THE 850MB AND 700MB LEVEL WILL AID IN A QUICK DROP OFF IN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. THE COOLEST MORNING SINCE THE SPRING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY, AS LOWS START IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
EVERYWHERE ELSE.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SOMEWHAT, BUT THEY WILL BE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS VARIETY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS AS MID-
LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS OUT OF THE WEST AND WSW. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS AS
NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE, AROUND 15-20 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD RELAX FINALLY SATURDAY EVENING, QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS A
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN TO OUR NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING WILL DIP AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S IN SOME SPOTS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU, WITH 40S EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ELSE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH MOST, IF NOT
ALL LOCATIONS BACK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. IN SUMMARY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE COOL AND DRY WITH FALL IN THE AIR.
NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A SLOW AND STEADY WARM-UP, BUT THE HUMIDITY
SHOULDN'T RETURN TO THE LEVEL THAT IT DID EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE WE
HAD MORNINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BY MID TO LATE WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 80S WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A STORMIER PATTERN
BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHERE ANY RAIN MAY FALL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
PREVAILING WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THIS PAST
MORNING'S COLD FRONT MOVES FARTHER AWAY. GUSTS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME MAY CONTINUE TO REACH 20-30 KT AS FLOW REMAINS FAST
BETWEEN FL010-FL050, BUT WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN AFTER SUNRISE WITH
MUCH LIGHTER NORTHERLY FLOW AT AND NEAR-SURFACE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 50 69 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 69 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 49 68 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 45 65 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 49 66 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 48 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 47 69 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 48 69 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 50 70 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 50 69 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 51 70 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-183>194-
202>209-217>225-228.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...TRAN
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