436
FXUS64 KEWX 182346
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. WINDS HAVE BECOME EASTERLY
AND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT SPEEDS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING OUT OF WEST TEXAS
TOWARDS LOUISIANA TONIGHT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT WITH THE REGION REMAINING CLOSED OFF
FROM THE GULF EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND.
HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER FOR THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN VEERING TOWARDS THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS
RIDGE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (AND POTENTIALLY A FEW SHOWERS) TO CREEP BACK INTO THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA MID-WEEK WILL SEND A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT SOMEWHERE
NEAR I-10/HIGHWAY 90. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RELEGATED TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON THURSDAY, SO EXPECT MOST OF THE
REGION TO REMAIN DRY MID-WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. AN APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS IT PASSES, BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
DIFFERS SOMEWHAT ON THE OVERALL TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE EUROPEAN
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
CLEARS OUT RAIN CHANCES MUCH QUICKER ON SATURDAY, AND THESE
INCONSISTENCIES IN TIMING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO ADJUSTMENTS IN
WHICH AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. MODELS
DO SHOW CONSISTENCY ON THIS SYSTEM PICKING UP A NEGATIVE TILT OVER
THE PANHANDLE AS IT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY KIND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FARTHER NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME. A SECONDARY WAVE MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN ON SUNDAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS A REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 46 68 49 70 48 / 0 0 - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 45 68 48 70 48 / 0 0 - - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 46 68 49 69 49 / 0 0 - 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 45 66 47 66 47 / 0 0 - 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 45 69 52 68 54 / 0 0 10 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 44 67 47 68 46 / 0 0 - - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 45 66 52 70 52 / 0 - 10 20 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 45 68 49 69 48 / 0 0 - 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 46 69 48 70 48 / 0 0 - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 46 67 51 69 50 / 0 0 10 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 47 67 52 69 51 / 0 0 10 10 -
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SHORT-TERM/LONG-TERM...OAKS
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