017
FXUS64 KEWX 202330
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
530 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
- ACCUMULATING SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT AND
INADVISABLE WITHIN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES. PROTECT PEOPLE, PETS,
PLANTS, AND PIPES FROM THE COLD WEATHER
CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED MUCH QUICKER, NEARLY 6 HOURS AHEAD OF WHAT
HI RES GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING. THIS HAS ACTED TO ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO RESPOND AND MOISTEN PERHAPS A BIT QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. VERY LIGHT ECHOES ARE NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SAN ANTONIO.
FOR NOW, THIS IS NOT HITTING THE GROUND AND LIKELY REMAINING VIRGA,
WHICH IS PRECIP THAT EVAPORATES IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. IT IS LIKELY THAT IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE ANY PRECIP STARTS TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. LATEST 12Z CAMS
AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE, IN ADDITIONAL TO THE NBM HAVE CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE A VERY MESSY WINTER WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONE OF THE MORE RECENT TRENDS IS FOR
PRECIP TO END A BIT SOONER, LIKELY OUT OF OUR AREA AS EARLY AS 12-
15Z TUESDAY. THIS HAS ACTED TO LIMITED TOTALS SOMEWHAT, AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5" OF SNOW/SLEET FOR
AUSTIN/SAN MARCOS AREAS AND POINTS EAST TO LA GRANGE. SOME FREEZING
RAIN COULD BRIEFLY MIX IN, BUT PRIMARILY SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED
IN THESE AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH, THE TREND FOR PERHAPS MORE SNOW AND SLEET RATHER THAN
FREEZING RAIN AND ICE HAS INCREASED, BUT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL INITIALLY BE A PROBLEM ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10/HIGHWAY 90
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COLDER THIS
AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, DUE IN PART TO THE EARLIER CLOUD
COVER, FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN MAY START AS EARLY AS 5 OR 6PM THIS
EVENING. IN ANY MATTER, WITH A VERY DRY DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE
-10 TO -20C LAYER, PRECIP WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700MB. THERE IS STILL A SUBTLE WARM NOSE AT THE
700-750MB LEVEL, WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND RAIN
EARLIER ON, MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT, MOST PRECIP SHOULD
COME IN THE FORM OF SLEET/SNOW BUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY STILL
MIX IN. WE EXPECT BETWEEN A TRACE TO .10" OF ICE ACCUMULATION SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
BY SUNRISE, WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIP STARTING TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND
OUT OF OUR REGION, BUT SOME REMAINING IN THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF TIME TO WARM BACK
ABOVE FREEZING, BUT ALL LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE BACK TO ABOVE FREEZING
BY 19-20Z TUESDAY. CLOUDS MAY MOVE OUT A BIT QUICKER, BUT TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE HOW MUCH TIME WE'LL HAVE TO MELT
ANY FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME,
CLOUDS LOOKED LIKE THEY MAY NOT CLEAR UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET,
BUT NOW, WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND IN GUIDANCE, CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK AND CLEAR AS EARLY AS 21-22Z FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THAT MEANS
HOPEFULLY MORE MELTING AND LESS REFREEZING AFTER SUNSET.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, WHERE ANY
REMAINING SNOW COVER WILL MAKE IT EVEN COLDER, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS. REFREEZING OF SNOW OR SLEET COULD ALSO CREATE SLICK
OR ICY SPOTS, PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES, OVERPASSES, AND ELEVATED
SURFACES UNTIL WE GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
- VERY COLD WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR SLICK/ICY ROADS
- HARD FREEZES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
- SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS WITH LOWER 20S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WINTRY PRECIPITATION FALLS AND THE AMOUNT OF
MELTING, WE COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH SOME TRAVEL CONCERNS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH SUCH A COLD START TO THE DAY, TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. WE DO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THIS WILL
HELP BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S, SO ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
THROUGH, BUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WE'LL SEE A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY, WARMING INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SATURDAY. WE
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES EXPAND BACK
WESTWARD INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
PIREPS REPORT CONSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RIME AND CLEAR ICING
BETWEEN FL100-FL030 NEAR AUS/SAT. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL LOWER
CIGS TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH ICING THROUGHOUT THE
CLOUD DECK. PRECIP TIMING REMAINS ON TRACK. EXPECT -RA TO -FZDZ AT
ONSET 01-02Z AT KSAT/KSSF/KAUS, FOLLOWED BY -RAPL 03-06Z, -PL FROM
06-09Z, THEN -SNPL FROM 09-12Z. HOWEVER, -FZDZ IS POSSIBLE AT
KSAT/KSSF IF RATES REMAIN VERY LIGHT. BRIEF -SNPL IS POSSIBLE FROM
06Z-12Z AT KDRT. PRECIP RATES SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH
SURFACE DRY LAYER. PRECIP WILL TAPER QUICKLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WITH
VFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 26 39 21 50 / 70 20 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 26 38 16 48 / 80 30 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 26 37 18 50 / 80 30 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 24 37 20 53 / 50 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 29 41 23 55 / 50 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 25 38 19 50 / 60 20 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 26 40 18 47 / 80 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 25 38 17 47 / 80 30 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 26 36 14 46 / 80 50 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 26 39 21 47 / 80 20 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 29 39 20 48 / 80 30 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR ATASCOSA-BANDERA-
BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-DIMMIT-EDWARDS-
FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-
KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL
VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR BANDERA-BLANCO-
BURNET-DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FRIO-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LLANO-
MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-ZAVALA.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR ATASCOSA-BASTROP-
BEXAR-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-FAYETTE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
LAVACA-LEE-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.
SHORT-TERM...TRAN
LONG-TERM...BRADY
AVIATION...TRAN
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