504
FXUS64 KEWX 172316 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
616 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2019
AVIATION
/00Z TAFS/
VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES.
WE WILL SEE CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS AT KDRT.
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AROUND 08Z.
WE HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AT KSAT AND KSSF, BUT WITH
ONLY A TEMPO GROUP AT KAUS. KDRT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TIME. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AFTER 15Z AS LOW CLOUDS
LIFT AND SCATTER BACK TO VFR CIGS.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 219 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2019/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ELEVATED HEAT INDICES REMAIN THE SHORT-TERM CONCERN WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING VALUES APPROACHING THE LOWER END OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
A LOOK AT 24 HOUR COMPARISONS WOULD SUGGEST NOT ENOUGH AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR LOWER END THRESHHOLD OF 108 TO WARRANT NEW
PRODUCT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SPS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE SUNDAY MORNING ASSESSMENT WILL WARRANT A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PART OF THE AREA, BUT WILL WANT TO DEFER TO THE
EARLY MORNING SHIFT TO MAKE THAT DECISION.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE H5 LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SHIFTS NW TO W
TX AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING. THE H7 WINDS
BECOME MORE SELY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND. THIS
COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE GRADUALLY EASE UP WHILE THE
HEAT INDICES REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES AS EARLY AS MONDAY WITH AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO GETTING
CLOSE TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE H5 RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS SHIFTED WEST WEDNESDAY BUT CONTINUES TO EXTEND AN EASTWARD
EXTENTION INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX AND KEEPS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX
STABLE. AN AREA OF POOLED HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER SRN
LA SHOWN IN THE GFS IS ALSO CONFIRMED WITH MID-LEVEL MESOSCALE
VORTITICITY PATTERN IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECM FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BUT NEITHER MODEL IS ABLE TO BRING IT WEST INTO THE DEEPER
PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TX. THE OVERALL SHAPE OF THE RIDGE
WOULD SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE TO CHAOTIC WITH THE PATTERN FOR US TO CHOOSE
THE BLENDED GUIDANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ROOTED OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 79 102 79 101 78 / 0 0 0 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 78 100 78 99 76 / 0 0 0 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 101 76 99 75 / 0 0 0 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 105 79 104 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 78 102 78 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 104 76 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 101 77 100 75 / 0 0 0 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 79 101 79 100 78 / 0 - 0 20 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 101 79 100 78 / 0 0 0 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 79 103 79 101 78 / 0 0 0 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
AVIATION...17
SHORT-TERM/LONG-TERM...HUFFMAN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...EWILLIAMS
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