018
FXUS64 KEWX 240618
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
118 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES POSSIBLE.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE COVERAGE IN THE AREA WITH MOST
STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS WELL AS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST. OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH
GIVEN MODEL AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY WITH ANY GIVEN STORM, BUT SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLOODING APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT, AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
ALOFT, BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WAS NOTED WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
ROUND OF STORMS WORKING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
LATER THIS EVENING, BUT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN NOT
PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT LARGE SCALE COVERAGE.
WITH REGARD TO SUNDAY, CAMS ARE STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SOME
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S FAR FROM A CERTAINTY. PWATS HAVE TRENDED
LOWER IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN ANY
MATTER, THE THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING IS STILL
THERE GIVEN SATURATED SOILS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS SUNDAY. MEMORIAL
DAY ITSELF HAS TRENDED DRIER, BUT WILL STILL CARRY SOME LOW END POPS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR IN THE EVENT OF A
POP UP SHOWER OR STORM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
TUESDAY AND BEYOND GET INTERESTING AGAIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES INCLUDING NBM AND LREF GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
DEEPENING TROUGH DIPPING INTO WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SPARKING STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LREF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WITHIN DESI INDICATES PWATS ON AVERAGE OF 1.5-1.8" OVER
MOST OF THE CWA IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS, IN
ADDITION TO ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE THREAT
FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WPC PLACES PRETTY MUCH ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS IN A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK (SLIGHT) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY, OUR PATTERN MAY REMAIN ACTIVE, BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
STARTS TO DIVERGE AND CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SATELLITE DATA AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS
SLOWLY TAKING PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WE WILL KEEP SCT LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
ROUGHLY 10Z FOR THE I-35 SITES, THEN ADD SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR
MVFR THROUGH MID-MORNING. A SIMILAR, BUT DELAYED ONSET OF LOW
CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED FOR DRT AS WELL. DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING
SHOULD BRING ALL TAF SITES BACK TO VFR MID-MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 87 69 89 69 / 10 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 69 89 70 / 10 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 89 68 / 10 0 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 85 67 86 67 / 10 0 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 92 71 93 73 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 86 68 88 68 / 10 10 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 88 69 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 68 89 68 / 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 68 88 69 / 10 0 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 88 69 89 69 / 0 0 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 89 70 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...PLATT
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