110
FXUS64 KEWX 231050
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
550 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 546 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
- MAJOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NUECES AT AND
BELOW ASHERTON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH 8 PM.
- SHEARED TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MOVING WEST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
WITH APPROACH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- SCATTERED TROPICAL DOWNPOURS AND A STORM OR TWO TO FAVOR MAINLY
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10/HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR. MOST RAIN
WITH BERTHA TO REMAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE OTHERWISE WITH BERTHA ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
A VERY WARM NIGHT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER YESTERDAY'S
VERY HOT AFTERNOON WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. ANOTHER HOT DAY WILL BE EXPECTED TODAY BUT
NOT QUITE AS EXCESSIVE AS YESTERDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, AFTER THE EXPANSION THIS
MORNING TO THE RIO GRANDE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
90S INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE WITH HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 113
DEGREES. SKIES TREND MOSTLY CLEAR BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MOST ZONES INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS BERTHA'S CIRCULATION APPROACHES. MORE ON BERTHA
CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA'S CIRCULATION AS OF THIS WRITING IS HUGGING
THE LOUISIANA COAST. IT HAS A SHEARED APPEARANCE WITH NORTHERLY
SHEAR IMPACTING THE STORM, WHICH IS KEEPING MAJORITY OF IT'S RAIN
AND CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF IT'S CIRCULATION. BERTHA'S
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN
GULF WATERS WITH AN APPROACH TOWARDS THE MID TO UPPER TEXAS COAST
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. AS A RESULT OF THIS
APPEARANCE, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TO INDICATE THAT THE BEST
PLACEMENT FOR THE MOST RAIN WITH BERTHA WILL BE ACROSS THE CORPUS
CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE WFO CWAS FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WE COULD GET A GLANCING CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY TROPICAL
DOWNPOURS, PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO, FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-10 AND US HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITHIN OUR REGION ARE QUITE MEAGER, GENERALLY OF AROUND A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS, AND THIS KEEPS OUR CONCERN FOR FLOODING AFTER OUR
RECENT EVENTS, VERY LOW.
WHILE THE RAIN FROM BERTHA FAVORS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION, ITS
REMNANT CIRCULATION COULD PUSH INLAND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE WINDS SLIGHTLY WITH GUSTS UP IN THE 25-35 MPH
RANGE. BERTHA'S CIRCULATION WEAKENS WITH TIME FROM TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AND THE FLOW SHOULD RETURN TOWARDS THE BACKGROUND
LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY'S MORNING LOWS SHOULD NOT BE AS
WARM AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, BUT SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN AROUND THAT 80 DEGREE MARK. FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LESS HOT COMPARED TO TODAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES MOSTLY PEAKING IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE FOCAL POINT OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE TYPICAL LATE JULY HEAT,
HUMIDITY, AND THE USUAL LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL FOR THE REGION. THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME, SKIES SHOULD TREND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
COMING OFF FROM THE GULF.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL AIRPORTS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHERLY AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. BY
THIS AFTERNOON, NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 23 KNOTS AS THE TROPICAL STORM BERTHA APPROACHES
THE EAST TEXAS COAST. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN FOR THE
I-35 TERMINALS AROUND 05Z TO 06Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST 14Z FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 101 80 97 77 / 0 20 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 79 96 77 / 0 20 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 100 79 96 76 / 0 20 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 98 78 94 74 / 0 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 106 79 96 78 / 0 0 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 99 80 95 77 / 0 10 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 100 79 95 75 / 0 20 20 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 78 95 76 / 0 20 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 79 97 77 / 0 30 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 100 80 95 77 / 0 20 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 101 80 96 77 / 0 30 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-183>194-
202>209-217>225-228.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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