182
FXUS64 KEWX 191959
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
159 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.
- CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
- WARMER MID-LATE WEEK, THEN MUCH COLDER THIS WEEKEND-NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CONFIDENCE/HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES...
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER ALL
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING LOWER WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 20% AND WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER OUTSIDE
THE CURRENT AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS RETURNED TO OUR AREA BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. THE
APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE
THE FRONTAL SURFACE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RESULTING IN SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY. WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING DEVELOPS AND MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS BEING THE FAVORED AREA. DUE TO THE CLOUDINESS, EXPECT
WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES AND COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC FORCING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
AS THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES OVER OUR AREA, RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE OVER EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN EXIT TO OUR EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC FRONT LINGERS AROUND OUR
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/4 INCH THROUGH THIS
EVENT.
HOWEVER, THE WARMTH WILL BE A MEMORY BY THIS WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT PLUNGES ACROSS OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER, WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS LINGERS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TO OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. PERIODS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EACH IMPULSE
WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
IT WILL START AS RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LOWER
AND MID LEVELS. THEN, A FREEZING RAIN, SLEET MIX SLOWLY SPREADS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH WARM, ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVELS OVER SUB
FREEZING SURFACE TO LOWER LEVELS. AS THIS IS A RECENT (WITHIN THE
LAST 36 TO 48 HOURS) SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES, CONFIDENCE IN THE SCENARIO REMAINS LOW, THOUGH SLIGHTLY
INCREASED. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
FOR A POTENTIAL OF WINTER TYPE PRECIPITATION (ICE ACCUMULATIONS)
AND COLD TEMPERATURE (WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS)
IMPACTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOIST AIR WILL MOVE UP THE RIO GRANDE
BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS TO DRT TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD TO THE SAN ANTONIO AREA BY LATE
MORNING, BUT WE THINK THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS.
IN THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST. LATER THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO
EASTERLY AND SPEEDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 KTS.
AT DRT, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. TUESDAY MORNING WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY, BUT STAY LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CST MON JAN 19 2026
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 25% AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND CENTRAL TEXAS PORTIONS OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE LIGHTER.
HUMIDITIES RECOVER ACROSS MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 39 58 51 66 / 0 0 40 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 39 60 50 68 / 0 0 40 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 41 59 50 68 / 0 10 40 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 35 56 49 64 / 0 0 30 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 45 54 48 70 / 0 20 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 37 59 49 65 / 0 0 30 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 43 61 50 70 / 0 10 30 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 40 60 50 68 / 0 10 40 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 42 63 54 70 / 0 0 30 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 44 60 52 68 / 0 10 40 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 46 61 53 70 / 0 10 40 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page