616
FXUS64 KEWX 020549
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1236 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
CLEAR SKIES ARE DOMINATING MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS
THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND STAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. CLOUDS BURN-OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S OVER MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON HOW FAST AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES OVER EAST TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS.
THE PATTERN REPEATS ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING IN THE AFTERNOON
GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. CAN'T RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS AND AS FAR NORTH
AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD AS LONG AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
SATURDAY WEATHER SETUP LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WITH THE INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CLOSING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORED BY THE GFS MODEL
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AS THE WEST TEXAS DRY-LINE MAKES INTO THE RIO GRANDE.
HOWEVER, THE 00Z THURSDAY NAM AND 12Z WED ECMWF HIRES MODELS ARE
DRY. THEREFORE, LOW CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE AS FAR AS SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY BUT
LOCATIONS AND TIMING DIFFER. THERE IS LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
MONDAY WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO OUR LOCAL
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, MEANING DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS COME
BACK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
LIGHTER WINDS HAVE SETTLED IN OVER I-35 WHILE SOME GUSTY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER DRT. THIS SHOULD LOWER THE AMOUNT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY IN THE AREA, SO WE'LL SEE THE MVFR CIGS FORM
A LITTLE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK OVER I-35 AND POSSIBLY NOT AT ALL
AROUND DRT/AUS. MIXING TO VFR SHOULD HAPPEN BY 15Z AND IT WILL
PROBABLY BE AROUND 09Z OR LATER FOR THE RETURN OF THE CLOUDS
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 96 76 97 76 / 0 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 95 76 96 76 / 0 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 94 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 94 73 95 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 74 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 95 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 94 76 95 76 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 75 94 75 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 75 94 75 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...18
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