592
FXUS64 KEWX 201150
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RECOVERS FROM STORMS THIS MORNING.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH OUT OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT
ACTIVITY EXPECTED BEHIND IT THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING INTO MOST OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN'T
BE RULED OUT. CLOUD COVER AND THE COOLER START TO THE MORNING WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S TODAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE
AGAIN. AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP IN THE WEST. A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER WEST TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR
VALUES WILL BRING ANOTHER EVENING OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM RISK
AS STORMS FIRST MOVE INTO THE AREA MID AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
THE SEVERE RISK LESSENING AS THE STORMS CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, A RISK FOR FLOODING IS SEEN AS ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH HIGH RAIN RATES.
THOSE THAT RECEIVED RAIN LAST NIGHT WILL BE MORE PRONE TO FLOODING
WITH THIS NEXT ROUND WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF MORE STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN BEHIND THE
PASSING COMPLEX OF STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY WITH COOLER HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A BIT OF A BROKEN RECORD IN THESE DISCUSSIONS AS DAILY RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEEK. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPPER-
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOIST AIR WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVERS FOR
THIS WET PATTERN.
EACH ROUND OF STORMS WILL INFLUENCE THE FOLLOWING DAY'S STORM
POTENTIAL, SO CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR ANY
ACTIVITY IS LOW IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SOME KIND OF DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY KEEPING THE TREND MORE FAVORABLE TIMING IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD TO LOOK OUT FOR CONTINUES TO
BE THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. FOR THOSE WITH
HOLIDAY WEEKEND PLANS, WE DON'T EXPECT THE ENTIRE WEEKEND TO BE A
WASHOUT BUT DO PREPARE FOR STORMY CONDITIONS AT TIMES THAT WILL BE
BETTER KNOWN AS WE GET CLOSER. A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE KEEP PERIODS OF LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO NEXT
WEEK.
EACH ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/SATURATE SOILS,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING OR RIVER FLOODING. GIVEN THE DEPENDENCE ON WHERE EACH
ROUND OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS, PINPOINTING EXACT RAINFALL TOTALS IS
DIFFICULT THOUGH WE DO EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
THOSE THAT SEE STORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK OVER THEIR AREA COULD
EVENTUALLY SEE FLOODING AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FLOOD WATCH LATER IN
THE WEEK OR WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND ALWAYS
HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNING INFORMATION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A COMBINATION OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
LOCAL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT STORMS
THAT AFFECTED MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE NOW OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM LEFT BEHIND A WAKE LOW THAT IS
PRODUCING 30 TO 50 KNOTS WIND GUSTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT MOVE OVER A TERMINAL COULD BRING
VISIBILITY DOWN A CATEGORY OR TWO. EAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 71 81 70 / 10 70 50 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 71 81 70 / 10 70 50 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 84 70 82 69 / 10 70 50 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 67 79 67 / 10 70 50 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 85 68 85 69 / 30 90 20 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 81 69 79 68 / 10 60 60 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 69 82 68 / 10 70 40 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 83 71 81 70 / 10 70 50 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 72 81 71 / 20 50 60 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 84 70 82 71 / 10 70 50 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 70 82 71 / 10 70 50 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...17
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