935
FXUS64 KEWX 030330
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1030 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY WARMING TREND TO START THE WEEK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LOW (20-40%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY COURTESY OF DRY AIR AND RIDGING
ALOFT. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT ACCOMPANIED THE INITIAL PUSH
OF COOLER AIR ON SATURDAY HAS MOVED EAST. THAT PUTS US BACK INTO A
WEAK SOUTHERLY WIND PATTERN, LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS SOME MORE MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING
SUBTROPICAL JET, CARRYING SOME GULF HUMIDITY BACK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS AND MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS TO ABOUT 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BACK IN THE 80S REGIONWIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL
SERVE TO GIVE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BOOST, WITHOUT MUCH OF AN
INITIAL INFLUENCE ON OUR RAIN-FREE WEATHER.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THE WARMING AND HUMIDIFYING INFLUENCE OF THE RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE FELT MORE PROMINENTLY BY MIDWEEK AS OVERNIGHT LOWS RISE
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RETURNING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. PEAK HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE QUITE SHARPLY ON TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER
90S IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, WITH A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE (ABOUT
10 TO 40 PERCENT) OF HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100F MAINLY SOUTH OF US-57.
A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN WILL BE AVAILABLE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE, THIS TRANSITION AIDS IN PUSHING THE WEST TEXAS DRY LINE
OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON TUESDAY, DIURNALLY VARYING IN POSITION
SOME (WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVANCING AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE GFS). THE PRESENCE OF THE NEARBY
UPPER TROUGH COULD ENABLE SOME ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS
DRY LINE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, SHIFTING SOME EAST TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
TOWARDS EAST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. AS IS TYPICAL, THE DRY LINE BRINGS
WITH IT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THAT SAID, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A STRONG CAP AS HINTED BY THE ROUGHLY 12C OR 90TH
PERCENTILE 700MB TEMPERATURES PROJECTED BY MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES,
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DRYLINE-RELATED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES IF THAT
MATERIALIZES.
THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES PAST OUR AREA THURSDAY,
OPENING AN AVENUE FOR A FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE SOURCE AIRMASS DOESN'T APPEAR AS ROBUST COMPARED TO OUR MOST
RECENT COOL PERIOD, BUT SO FAR THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO CLEAR OUT THE HIGHER MIDWEEK HUMIDITY AND
BRING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
FRIDAY AS WELL (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S). MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AS DEPICTED IN THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS LOWER THAN OUR RECENT RAINY FRONTS,
BUT THE PRESENCE OF A CUT OFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
IS A SIGNAL TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SOME LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ALONG
AND POST-FRONT THURSDAY ON FRIDAY. THAT CUT-OFF LOW MAY START TO
MOVE EAST TOWARDS OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN OPPORTUNITY IF IT PERSISTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY
TO COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS
REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS WITH DIRECTIONS SHIFTING FROM EAST-
NORTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 54 81 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 52 79 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 52 80 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 52 78 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 78 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 78 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 51 78 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 52 80 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 52 80 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 54 80 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 54 80 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...62
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