533
FXUS64 KEWX 181846
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
146 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN TONIGHT.
- COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MID-WEEK WITH MODERATE CHANCES FOR
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A STRONG MID-APRIL COLD FRONT HAS NOW SWEPT ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY ON A
BREEZY NORTH WIND. MOST HAVE AVOIDED MEASURABLE PRECIP SO FAR, BUT
AREAS WILL START TO FILL IN WITH MOSTLY LIGHT STRATIFORM SHOWERS
TODAY. WE EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH SOME
LIGHTNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS MID-LEVEL ASCENT
RIPPLES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COOL, BUT MOST OF THESE DEEPER STORMS WILL BE NON-SEVERE AND MAINLY
POSE AN INTERMITTENT LIGHTNING RISK TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH
THAT RISK PEAKING IN THE EVENING AND EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. THE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY EASE TONIGHT WITH MOST
ACTIVITY CLEARING OUT BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT RELATIVE TO COVERAGE GIVEN THE HIGH-BASED,
COOLER NATURE OF THE RAINS... FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO
ABOUT A QUARTER INCH FOR MOST, AND SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF A 1/2
TO 1 INCH. THOSE MARGINALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE MORE LIKELY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO THE
NIGHT. RESIDUAL POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS WILL PREVENT MORE AGGRESSIVE
COOLING, BUT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND NORTH
OF THE AUSTIN AREA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
GUSTS DROPPING BELOW 25 MPH FOR MOST, BUT IT WON'T BE UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THAT THE ENHANCED POST-FRONTAL WINDS SETTLE DOWN MORE
FULLY.
SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TALE OF TWO HALVES OF THE REGION. FOR
AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10 OR EAST OF I-37, THE DAY TRENDS
SUNNIER AND DRIER, ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 70S. TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, A RESURGENT FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT FORCES MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP AN OVERCAST IN PLACE ALONG WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THOSE
CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF LIGHT RAINS SHOULD INCH
CLOSER TO THE US-281 AND I-35 CORRIDORS SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A BROADER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER
TEXAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK, A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT OUT OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ABOUT TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS KEEPS RAIN CHANCES IN THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES ARE PROBABLY ON TUESDAY, WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
IS MOST FAVORABLY POSITIONED TO DRAG MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE MOST FAVORED IN SOUTH TEXAS AND ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS, ESPECIALLY IF A COASTAL LOW OR TROUGH MATERIALIZES
AS INDICATED IN THE SYNOPTIC GLOBAL MODELS, THOUGH THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES CARRY CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ACTIVITY LIMITED TO MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP INCREASE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY, OPENING UP
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A HEAVIER RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UP DURING THE WEEK WITH THE
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDINESS, STAYING WELL BELOW AVERAGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEL RIO MAY SEE A FEW DAILY RECORD COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STAYING AS MUCH AS 25
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THESE COOL ANOMALIES AREN'T AS DRAMATIC TO
THE EAST, BUT ARE STILL 10-15 DEGREES BELOW LATE-APRIL NORMS. AS
CONDITIONS START TO CLEAR UP WEST-TO-EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER
AIR ALOFT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. A PAIR OF TROUGHS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE IN THE WEEK MAY INFLUENCE
CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY TO SATURDAY, POSSIBLY WITH SOME
DRYLINE-RELATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, THOSE DISTURBANCES
WON'T REACH THE WESTERN US COAST UNTIL MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A FROPA OCCURRED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AND WILL KEEP WINDS
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE WINDS START TO
RELAX AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LATEST TRENDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SHIFTED TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS AND THUS, HAVE MOVED
PROB30S IN THAT DIRECTION PER THE HREF SUITE. HREF MEAN COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY FOCUSES ON SAT/SSF/AUS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SO HAVE
USED PROB30S FOR VIS AND -TSRA RESTRICTIONS ACCORDINGLY. VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN AT ALL SITES AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT SAT AND SSF
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 52 75 55 70 / 60 0 20 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 52 74 54 68 / 60 0 20 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 52 73 54 68 / 70 10 30 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 48 72 53 66 / 30 0 20 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 66 54 64 / 30 30 40 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 48 73 54 67 / 50 0 20 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 53 67 53 62 / 70 10 50 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 52 73 55 67 / 70 10 30 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 53 74 55 72 / 70 10 10 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 53 71 55 66 / 80 10 40 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 54 70 56 66 / 80 10 40 70
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...MMM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page