668
FXUS64 KEWX 082351
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
551 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND NORTHERN MEXICO, BUT WILL WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NEXT 36 HOURS, LEADING TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AS
A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OUR WARM, HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, RESULTING IN CLOUDY
OVERNIGHTS AND MORNINGS WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE, AND PARTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOONS. THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE, BUT AT THIS
TIME WE DON'T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH DENSE FOG TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY IN THE 70S. MANY LOCATIONS
NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 SHOULD TOUCH THE LOWER 80S AT LEAST BRIEFLY,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE. AFTER LOWS IN THE
60S, FRIDAY WILL AGAIN FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO PERHAPS LOWER
80S. THEN WASH, RINSE, REPEAT OVERNIGHT WITH THE PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT
ONE OR TWO OF OUR CLIMATE SITES BREAKING A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY OR TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
MUGGY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW REMAINS IN PLAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A GOOD
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S. AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WILL SIGNAL THE NEXT SHOT AT RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
BACK HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LIFTING FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY LATE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL GET SENT IN OUR
DIRECTION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING ITS PASSAGE. AT THIS
TIME, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MUCAPE TO PRODUCE PERHAPS A COUPLE
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
FAIRLY LOW AT THIS DISTANCE. STREAMER SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS LOOK
LIKE A DECENT BET SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DAWN AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS QPF
GOES, COORDINATED WITH WPC IN BUMPING UP QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA AS THE NBM IS A BIT DRIER THAN PRETTY MUCH EVERY OTHER
MODEL. SOME LUCKY SPOTS MAY PICK UP A QUICK 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH, BUT MOST
WILL SEE BETWEEN .1 AND .2" SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER, SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A TAD COOLER, BUT STILL ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE MID- DECEMBER NORMALS.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FACTORING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND IT WON'T FEEL MUCH LIKE DECEMBER OUT THERE. MONDAY
WILL PROBABLY BE OUR LAST RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DAY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A POWERFUL 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(E OF HIGHWAY 77), BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT FOR
MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NORTH OF THE EWX CWA, AS MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN REMARKABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS OF RIGHT NOW, SPC HAS A DAY 5
OUTLOOK CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX, WHICH INCLUDES THE DFW METRO, BUT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE AUSTIN METRO AT THIS TIME. IF THINGS WERE TO
CHANGE A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS, STORMS COULD TREND
FURTHER SOUTH AND ALONG WITH IT, A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT,
HOWEVER, THAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. WE MAY STILL
MANAGE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW 10THS OF AN INCH EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR, BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER
FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. MUCH COOLER AIR
SHOULD FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING AN END TO THAT NASTY AIR
WE'VE HAD TO PUT UP WITH THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS, IN THE 50S AND 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A BROAD AND FLAT
RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ENABLE A NEAR PERSISTENCE
PATTERN IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. WIND TRENDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
PERSISTENCE, BUT AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL PICK UP
SPEEDS IN THE LATER PERIODS. ALL SKIES AT THE FOUR TAF SITES SHOULD
VFR FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
03Z AROUND SAT/SSF AND PROBABLY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AT DRT/AUS. THIS
IS A SLIGHT HEDGE TOWARD PERSISTENCE OVER THE MOS GUIDANCES WHICH ARE
ROUGHLY A COUPLE HOURS SLOWER. NEVERTHELESS THE BROADER TREND IS FOR
SLIGHTLY LESS VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS THE DEEP WARM AND MOIST LAYER IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. LOWEST
CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR DAYBREAK ARE FORECAST OVER THE HIGHER INLAND
TERRAIN AND DRT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 65 77 67 77 / 0 0 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 78 67 78 / 0 0 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 65 80 66 79 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 75 64 74 / 10 10 10 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 75 65 75 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 64 77 65 76 / 0 0 10 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 78 66 77 / 0 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 66 78 / 0 0 0 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 80 67 80 / 0 10 0 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 78 66 77 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 66 79 67 80 / 0 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...OAKS
LONG-TERM...GALE
AVIATION...OAKS
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