447
FXUS64 KEWX 270451
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1051 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021
AVIATION
THE GENERAL TAF TREND FROM THE 00Z TAFS IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE MOVED IN ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35 TAFS
BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z. BRIEF CLEARING TOOK PLACE AROUND SAT/SSF THIS
EVENING, BUT CEILINGS SHOULD START TO FILL IN SHORTLY. THE BIGGEST
CHANGE FROM THE 00Z TAFS IS THAT CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY BUILT INTO DRT
AND SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT TO IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE SLOW DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BY
MID-AFTERNOON. AN EARLY LOOK AT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM APPEARS
TO SHOW ANOTHER NIGHT OF DROPPING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MARCHES NORTH ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 541 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021/
AVIATION...
WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT ANOTHER MUGGY AND MOIST NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE ALREADY MVFR FOR MOST AREAS
OTHER THAN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS, WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A DROP TO
IFR AND THEN LIFR IS FORECAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS CEILINGS DROP AND FOG AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. IFR CEILINGS
SHOULD ALSO BUILD INTO DRT, BUT BE DELAYED UNTIL BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
HAVE BOTTOMED OUT CEILINGS AROUND OVC003 AND VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1/2
AND 1 MILE FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE, BUT SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE HINTED AT IN A FEW OF THE MODELS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL BEGIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH VFR SKIES
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
COOL AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS
REMAINS. WHEREAS FOR THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT OR BETTER THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ALONG/TOWARDS THE RIO
GRANDE AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS HAVE SEEN MILDER
TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE MID 50S WHILE OTHERS REACH UP INTO THE 70S.
THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, IN ADDITION TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WE GO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW A
QUARTER OF A MILE. ADDITIONALLY, SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ESTABLISHES AS
WELL DURING THE OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A HI-RES MODEL OR TWO STILL
ARE OUTLIERS ON SHOWING THE FRONT GETTING HUNG UP NEAR THE HILL
COUNTRY, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FRONT TO BE NORTH OF THE
REGION BY MID-LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S
TO LOW 80S AND FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. COULDN'T RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MUGGY, ESPECIALLY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT FOR
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO REDEVELOP AS
WELL.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. WE
DO EXPECT AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BE IN PLACE AND WITH
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW, WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND NORTHERN REACHES OF THE HILL COUNTRY. WE SHOULD SEE AN
UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINS APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT. DURING THIS PERIOD, WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE CHANCES FOR A STRONG STORM
OR TWO APPEAR BETTER OVER NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SHOULD BE NOTHING BUT BENEFICIAL. AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM
NEAR ONE-QUARTER INCH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO NEAR 1-1.5 INCHES
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71.
SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST
TO EAST. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE OF A CHALLENGE. MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF IS NOT VERY GOOD AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE
GFS SHOWS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING IN THURSDAY WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF INITIALLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT
TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY,
THEN A STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AIR LATE FRIDAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN AND
WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LATEST FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 59 56 76 64 75 / 10 20 20 20 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 58 56 77 63 77 / 10 20 20 20 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 60 59 78 65 78 / 10 20 20 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 54 73 61 72 / 20 10 20 10 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 57 78 61 79 / - - - 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 55 75 63 74 / 20 20 20 20 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 57 78 62 78 / 10 10 20 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 57 77 63 76 / 10 20 20 20 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 61 78 67 78 / 10 20 20 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 59 78 65 76 / 10 20 20 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 59 79 64 76 / 10 10 20 20 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...TREADWAY/MORRIS
LONG-TERM...05
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