365
FXUS64 KEWX 220620
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
120 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES DECREASING AND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LOW
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A ROUND OF STORMS THAT WENT THROUGH SAN ANTONIO IN THE LATE EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES EAST OVER THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES. MEANWHILE A CURIOUS NEW AREA OF CONVECTION FORMED OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND WILL MOVE OVER OUR EDWARDS PLATEAU COUNTIES EARLY
IN THE MORNING. THIS CONVECTION CONTAINS A LOT OF LIGHTNING AND WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO
HANDLE THIS CONVECTION WELL, SENDING A SMALL WEAKENING COMPLEX INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS OUTDOES THE PAST FEW
RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH INITIALIZED THE CURRENT CONVECTION QUITE
POORLY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE NEW 03Z HRRR RUN COMING IN STARTS
OFF BETTER. WHILE THE GFS ALSO INITIALIZED THAT STORM CLUSTER WELL,
IT PROPAGATES THINGS MORE EAST WHILE THE NAM TRENDS MAKE MORE SENSE
WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT YET BEEN WORKED OVER. A FEW RESIDUAL
SHOWERS COULD CARRY INTO DAYTIME, BUT WE WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE
DAYTIME POPS/COVERAGE TO BE CAPPED AT AROUND 30 PERCENT AND FAVORED
OVER EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES.
THIS RELATIVE BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER COULD THUS ALLOW FOR TODAY TO
BE ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS OF THE WEEK, BUT SHOULD STILL BE JUST SHY
OF NORMAL MAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. NBM POP TRENDS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A GOOD SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER RIPPLE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
SW FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW
SOME AGREEMENT BUT ALSO SOME HESITANCE TO CARRY INTO OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. WITH A WHOLE DAY OF GOOD WARMING EXPECTED WHILE CHANCES
ARE LOW, WE'LL STICK TO THE HIGHER NBM VALUES TO AVOID FORECAST
INCONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN. THE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES ARE EVEN
HIGHER AND BROADER IN COVERAGE INTO DAYTIME SATURDAY; GIVEN THE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOTIONS OF THIS ACTIVITY AND THE FLOW
ALOFT, IT'S PROBABLE THAT MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE ENHANCED CHANCES
IN ONE OF THE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT PERIODS. WE'RE HOPING THE
POPULATED QPF IS CORRECT FOR THESE PERIODS WHERE HEAVIEST RAINS GIVE
THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TX A BREAK AND FOCUS MORE OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY, THIS NEXT ROUND
WOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED TO HAVE THE TYPICAL LARGE AREAS OF 1 INCH
WITH ISOLATED 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
OUR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IF SATURDAY MORNING
OVERACHIEVES WITH THE ACTIVITY THAT BEGINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD BE A BRIEF RECOVER PERIOD WITH A
DOWNWARD POP TREND BY THE TIME WE GET THERE. BUT THE PATTERN IS
STILL UNSTABLE AND COULD BE ALSO BE SHIFTED LATER ON TIMING. IN
GENERAL THE BROAD FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY,
AS THE SHORTWAVES TEND TO SHRINK AS THEY ENTER EAST TX. THIS WOULD
FAVOR CONTINUED EVERY OTHER DAY ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH
LOW END CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND INCREASING FLOOD POTENTIAL
WITH TIME. THERE COULD BE RELATIVELY STRONGER SOLUTION TO PROMOTE
RAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY, AS THERE AS SIGNS THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW SITS
BRIEFLY OVER TX. THIS COULD SEND PRECIP POTENTIALS HIGHER FOR THIS
PERIOD, IF IT COMES TO PASS, BUT THE RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS ARE STILL TOO
IRREGULAR TO GAIN ANY CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN VAL VERDE WILL LIKELY HANG ON LONG ENOUGH
TO IMPACT DRT EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION TSRA
FOR DRT THROUGH 08Z. FARTHER EAST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR, SOME
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE AT AUS OVER THE NEXT HOUR, BUT
NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY IS ANTICIPATED. AS THE MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST, LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
EXPECTED. WE WILL KEEP MAINLY MVFR IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT, BUT
DID OPT FOR SOME TEMPO IFR AT AUS AROUND SUNRISE. MVFR CONTINUES
THROUGH LATE MORNING, WITH VFR TAKING OVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY CONVECTION IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE 30 HOUR SITES, LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITH MORE MVFR CIGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 72 84 69 / 20 20 80 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 88 72 83 68 / 20 20 80 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 70 83 67 / 20 20 80 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 84 69 81 66 / 20 20 70 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 71 87 68 / 10 20 40 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 86 70 82 67 / 20 20 70 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 70 82 66 / 10 40 80 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 71 83 68 / 20 20 80 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 72 83 69 / 30 20 90 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 87 72 83 68 / 10 30 80 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 72 83 68 / 10 30 90 60
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ171>173-186>194-204>209-219>225.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...PLATT
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