505
FXUS64 KEWX 061100
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
500 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, EXCEPT BELOW AVERAGE ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA WITH A DRYLINE OVER FAR WEST TEXAS TO THE BIG BEND AREA.
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO MIX EAST TO OUR RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE OF A
MOIST AIRMASS UNDERNEATH A WARM LAYER/CAPPING KEEPS IT SHOWERS AS
SHOWN BY MOST MODELS. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE/HEATING
TO BREAK THE CAPPING TO SAMPLE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MODERATE
MLCAPE, AND MODERATE BULK SHEARS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED, STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN BY ONLY A FEW MODELS. IF THERE ARE STORMS,
THE FAVORED AREAS ARE THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
SATURDAY, IT SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN REMAINDER OF OUR
AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT PROVIDES FORCING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS REMAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FORCING ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINS. LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND MINOR FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ALL AREAS TODAY AND
SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY WITH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY,
AND CENTRAL TEXAS COOLING OFF DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING EARLIER
IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA WITH A DRYLINE OVER FAR WEST TEXAS TO THE BIG BEND AREA.
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO MIX EAST TO OUR RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE OF A
MOIST AIRMASS UNDERNEATH A WARM LAYER/CAPPING KEEPS IT SHOWERS AS
SHOWN BY MOST MODELS. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE/HEATING
TO BREAK THE CAPPING TO SAMPLE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MODERATE
MLCAPE, AND MODERATE BULK SHEARS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED, STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AS SHOWN BY ONLY A FEW MODELS. IF THERE ARE STORMS,
THE FAVORED AREAS ARE THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST ON
SATURDAY, IT SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN REMAINDER OF OUR
AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT PROVIDES FORCING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS REMAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FORCING ALLOWING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINS. LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND MINOR FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ALL AREAS TODAY AND
SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY WITH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY,
AND CENTRAL TEXAS COOLING OFF DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING EARLIER
IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE EAST WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL IMPACT. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHERN PART SETTLES IN AS A
CLOSED LOW NEAR OR OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WITH A LACK OF
SUPPORT ALOFT, THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY, THEN MOVES
BACK TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL IN
THE PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT, MID LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTING
OUT OF THE BAJA LOW, AND AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS KEEP HIGH
CHANCES OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN, THE LOW OPENS AS A TROUGH AND MOVES OVER OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY TO PRODUCE ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS RAIN EVENT. RECENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
TRENDS HAVE AGAIN DISAGREED ON THE TIMING OF THIS PASSAGE. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A SLOWING TREND AND RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO
THURSDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH HEAVY RAINS ARE THE MAIN IMPACTS. FLOODING
MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY SHOULD HEAVY RAINS FALL OVER THE SAME AREAS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A 60 TO 90% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF
RAIN FOR MOST OF OUR AREA WITH A 40 TO 60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 2
INCHES FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
INCHES ACROSS SOME AREAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION
UNDERNEATH THICK CLOUD LAYERS WITH RAINFALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN
ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. IN
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES COOL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
SOUTHERLY WIND FROM 10-15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE IN THE WEST ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE LATER THIS MORNING WHILE GUSTY WIND INCREASES OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
TO SITES THIS AFTERNOON. -SHRA MAY BE SEEN AT I-35 TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 69 81 57 / 40 30 90 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 68 82 56 / 40 30 90 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 67 82 58 / 30 20 80 80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 66 73 54 / 50 40 90 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 89 65 80 57 / 10 20 70 80
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 67 79 55 / 50 40 90 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 66 82 55 / 30 10 80 80
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 67 83 57 / 40 20 90 80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 70 85 60 / 30 20 80 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 69 82 59 / 30 10 90 90
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 70 85 60 / 30 10 80 90
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...27
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