367
FXUS64 KEWX 241138
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
538 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION (12Z TAFS)
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY TODAY;
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST OF I-35 WEDNESDAY, AND
FOR NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY.
- THIS MORNING WILL BE CHILLY, BUT THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
TODAY WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THE MOISTURE RETURN WITH EXTRA CAUTION, AS
THE RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GET ROBUST IN A HURRY AFTER
DAYBREAK. VERY LOW DEWPOINT TEMPS FELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH
AND EAST OF SAN ANTONIO MONDAY, BUT THE LATE EVENING DEWPOINTS ARE
RECOVERING NICELY OVER THE COASTAL BEND DESPITE ONLY A MODEST SE
BREEZE. THIS HAS US FEELING A LITTLE BETTER ABOUT THE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, BUT THE BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL INTERACT WITH
THE PROJECTED RH VALUES MAINLY IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE TO MAKE
FIRE SPREAD DIFFICULT TO CONTROL. THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL PROBABLY
BE TOO LATE TO GENERATE ANY LOW CLOUDS, SO THE MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT
TO THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MIX UP TO 5000 FT, ALLOWING
THE SURFACE DIRECTIONS TO BEND TO THE SSW TO SPEED UP THE WARMING
TREND.
WIND DIRECTIONS SHOULD BACK TO S/SE TONIGHT AND BRING IN A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE FOR A GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVER OVER 85 PERCENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WHILE THESE SURFACE WINDS PROMOTE GULF
MOISTURE INFLUX THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, A SURFACE LOW DIGGING SE
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX WILL BRING THE DRY-LINE, PULLING ANY LOW
CLOUDS EAST AND BRINGING A HOT AND DRY WEST WIND INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS, AND BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO ALL AREAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
DEW POINTS ADVANCE BACK WESTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES FROM THE 3000 FT AND HIGHER WIND
DIRECTIONS. THE DRY-LINE RETREAT WILL BARELY MAKE THE HILL COUNTRY
BEFORE A POLAR FRONT DROPS RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX BETWEEN
15Z AND 18Z. THIS WILL BRING MORE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES THAT EXPAND TO
ALL BUT THE SE 3 OR 4 COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX WHERE THE RH
VALUES HOLD UP LONGER.
THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ISN'T PARTICULARLY COLD, AS THE STRONGEST
CAA IS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS REMAIN A GOOD BET,
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD END UP WITH HIGHS JUST AS WARM
AS THE DAY BEFORE. THE NORTH WINDS DIE DOWN BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT SHOULDN'T DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO DROP MIN TEMPS ENOUGH TO EVEN GET
TO LATE FEBRUARY NORMALS BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP.
NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT AT LEAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AND KEEP A STEADY FEED OF
GULF MOISTURE FROM S/SE WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THERE
COULD BE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO HANG ON TO A DEEPER LAYER OF
MOISTURE. THE NEXT SCENARIO FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS ABOUT 10
DAYS AWAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AROUND 16Z AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE
RELAXING SOMEWHAT WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF. VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 56 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 54 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 53 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 54 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 49 94 58 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 55 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 47 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 53 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 57 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 54 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 53 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...MMM
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