204
FXUS64 KEWX 151826
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
126 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND, THEN STORMY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDICES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SOME
SPOTS FEELING LIKE 100-105+ SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS JUST NOW MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NW
AND WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THIS
FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THAT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
TRAILING DRYLINE WAS NOTED PER SPC MESOANALYSIS FROM PERRYTON TO
CHILDRESS TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH BIG SPRING AND FURTHER SOUTH JUST
EAST OF FORT STOCKTON. THIS DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
CONVECTION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN DRY, BUT PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE AND EDWARDS COUNTY MAY SEE A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING.
HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PUMPS
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SPC HAS A SMALL SLIVER
OF VAL VERDE IN A MARGINAL RISK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SEVERE
STORMS, BUT THE BULK OF STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR
CWA. WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, OPTED TO BLEND IN SOME BIAS
CORRECTED MOS TO ACCOUNT FOR NBM MAX AND MIN T'S THAT WERE NEAR THE
HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE. THIS WILL NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHT COOLING EFFECTS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER TODAY AND TOMORROW. OVERALL, IT WILL STILL BE
WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ALONG WITH MORNINGS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND EJECT A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES OUT OVER THE PLAINS STATES. MEANWHILE, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WON'T BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON, WITH SEVERAL
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ON MONDAY, BUT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
REACH OUR AREA AS IT SOMEWHAT STALLS OUT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS,
IN COMBINATION WITH AMPLE PWATS AND SURFACE MOISTURE, WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4)
FOR FLOODING RAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPGRADES TO THESE OUTLOOKS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
WILL NEED TO INCREASE ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL.
ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE: HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. WITH
MUGGY MORNINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND AFTERNOONS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S MONDAY/TUESDAY, IT WILL FEEL HOTTER AS HUMIDITY RAPIDLY
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MOVE INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE I-35 SITES AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING NEAR AND
NORTH OF DEL RIO, BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR CIGS FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN 07-16Z. FOR DRT, WE WILL ALSO MENTION A SHORTER PERIOD OF
MVFR CLOUDS BETWEEN 12-16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 90 75 90 / 0 0 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 91 76 91 / 0 0 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 74 90 / 0 0 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 87 72 87 / 0 0 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 91 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 89 74 89 / 0 0 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 90 74 91 / 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 91 75 91 / 0 0 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 91 76 92 / 0 0 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 71 91 75 91 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 75 92 / 0 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...PLATT
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