447  
FXUS64 KEWX 270451  
AFDEWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
1051 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
THE GENERAL TAF TREND FROM THE 00Z TAFS IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH  
CENTRAL TEXAS. LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITY HAVE MOVED IN ACROSS THE  
HILL COUNTRY AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35 TAFS  
BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z. BRIEF CLEARING TOOK PLACE AROUND SAT/SSF THIS  
EVENING, BUT CEILINGS SHOULD START TO FILL IN SHORTLY. THE BIGGEST  
CHANGE FROM THE 00Z TAFS IS THAT CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY BUILT INTO DRT  
AND SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITY ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT TO IFR AND  
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH DRIZZLE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT  
WILL BE SLOW DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BY  
MID-AFTERNOON. AN EARLY LOOK AT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM APPEARS  
TO SHOW ANOTHER NIGHT OF DROPPING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. LIGHT  
NORTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MARCHES NORTH ACROSS  
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 541 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021/  
 
AVIATION...  
WITH THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS  
TONIGHT ANOTHER MUGGY AND MOIST NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS  
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE ALREADY MVFR FOR MOST AREAS  
OTHER THAN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS, WITH CLOUDS  
EXPECTED TO FILL IN AND LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A DROP TO  
IFR AND THEN LIFR IS FORECAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z ACROSS THE I-35  
CORRIDOR AS CEILINGS DROP AND FOG AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. IFR CEILINGS  
SHOULD ALSO BUILD INTO DRT, BUT BE DELAYED UNTIL BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.  
HAVE BOTTOMED OUT CEILINGS AROUND OVC003 AND VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1/2  
AND 1 MILE FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE, BUT SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND LOWER  
VISIBILITIES ARE HINTED AT IN A FEW OF THE MODELS. GRADUAL  
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL BEGIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH VFR SKIES  
RETURNING FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021/  
 
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...  
COOL AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS  
REMAINS. WHEREAS FOR THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME SUNSHINE  
BREAK OUT OR BETTER THINNING OF THE CLOUDS ALONG/TOWARDS THE RIO  
GRANDE AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS HAVE SEEN MILDER  
TEMPERATURES. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO  
GET OUT OF THE MID 50S WHILE OTHERS REACH UP INTO THE 70S.  
 
THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL EXPAND BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION INTO  
THE OVERNIGHT, IN ADDITION TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WE GO THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT  
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE  
AREA. FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW A  
QUARTER OF A MILE. ADDITIONALLY, SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ESTABLISHES AS  
WELL DURING THE OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH A HI-RES MODEL OR TWO STILL  
ARE OUTLIERS ON SHOWING THE FRONT GETTING HUNG UP NEAR THE HILL  
COUNTRY, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FRONT TO BE NORTH OF THE  
REGION BY MID-LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY  
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S  
TO LOW 80S AND FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THAT  
FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. COULDN'T RULE OUT A FEW  
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY WARM AND MUGGY, ESPECIALLY  
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT FOR  
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO REDEVELOP AS  
WELL.  
 
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...  
WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED  
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE  
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. WE  
DO EXPECT AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BE IN PLACE AND WITH  
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW, WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY  
EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS  
PLATEAU AND NORTHERN REACHES OF THE HILL COUNTRY. WE SHOULD SEE AN  
UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY  
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD  
RAINS APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GIVEN THE FORCING  
ALONG THE FRONT. DURING THIS PERIOD, WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER  
FORCING FOR ASCENT WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE CHANCES FOR A STRONG STORM  
OR TWO APPEAR BETTER OVER NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY SHOULD BE NOTHING BUT BENEFICIAL. AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM  
NEAR ONE-QUARTER INCH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO NEAR 1-1.5 INCHES  
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71.  
 
SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON  
TUESDAY AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST  
TO EAST. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY  
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE OF A CHALLENGE. MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE  
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF IS NOT VERY GOOD AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE  
GFS SHOWS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING IN THURSDAY WITH WINDY  
CONDITIONS HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF INITIALLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT  
TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY,  
THEN A STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AIR LATE FRIDAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE  
FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN AND  
WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LATEST FORECAST.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 59 56 76 64 75 / 10 20 20 20 50  
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 58 56 77 63 77 / 10 20 20 20 50  
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 60 59 78 65 78 / 10 20 20 20 40  
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 54 73 61 72 / 20 10 20 10 50  
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 57 78 61 79 / - - - 10 10  
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 55 75 63 74 / 20 20 20 20 50  
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 57 78 62 78 / 10 10 20 10 20  
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 57 77 63 76 / 10 20 20 20 40  
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 61 78 67 78 / 10 20 20 20 40  
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 59 78 65 76 / 10 20 20 20 40  
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 59 79 64 76 / 10 10 20 20 30  
 

 
   
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...TREADWAY/MORRIS  
LONG-TERM...05  
 
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