998  
FXUS64 KEWX 152000  
AFDEWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2019  
   
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
 
 
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE  
SHORT TERM FORECAST AS GULF MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE  
REGION. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW  
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF AMARILLO WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE STRETCHING  
TOWARDS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO SKIRT LAVACA, FAYETTE,  
AND LEE COUNTIES AS THE SEA BREEZE MIXES INLAND, BEST CHANCES FOR  
RAIN THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. VISIBLE  
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
TRANS PECOS WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT NOTED ACROSS THE  
SIERRA MADRES/HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO. SPC MESOANALYSIS PLACES OVER  
5000 J/KG ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS  
GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD ENCOURAGE BETTER MAINTENANCE OF ANY  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE OR HIGHER  
TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN  
EXCESS OF 8 C/KM AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CLOSE TO 25  
DEGREES WILL ENCOURAGE A GUSTY WIND THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
LARGE HAIL SHOULD THESE THUNDERSTORMS REACH THE COUNTY. OTHERWISE,  
EXPECT A DRY, BUT HUMID EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  
 
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE  
DRYLINE THIS EVENING TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A LARGER THUNDERSTORM  
COMPLEX. WHILE A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, STORM MOTION  
VECTORS INDICATE THAT SHOULD A COMPLEX LIKE THIS DEVELOP, IT MAY MAKE  
A RUN FOR THE CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH  
FOR THIS (LOW PROBABILITY) POTENTIAL. ANOTHER ROUND OF STREAMER  
SHOWERS LOOKS TO SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS CLOSER TO SUNRISE  
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.  
 
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 80S IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 100 IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.  
HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY MORE SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL  
PLAINS AS EVEN DEEPER GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES (FORECAST PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES). THE DRYLINE MAY ALLOW FOR  
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO MAKE IT TO VAL VERDE COUNTY SUNDAY  
EVENING, BUT ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHT'S STORMS  
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS POTENTIAL  
AREAS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS  
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE CHURNING ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND AS THIS FEATURE  
SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT, FORCING FOR ASCENT  
ALONG THE NORTHWEST TEXAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS ANY RESIDUAL  
OUTFLOW WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGH  
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX  
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH STORM MOTION VECTORS AGAIN INDICATING  
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO REACH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD  
A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL DEVELOP. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN  
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT APPEAR TO BE THE PRESENCE OF THESE SURFACE  
BOUNDARIES AND LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND HAVE  
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR  
IN RESPONSE. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH  
ANYTHING THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION, BUT A LARGE HAIL THREAT ALSO  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE HILL COUNTRY SHOULD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AS  
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF THE  
SHORTWAVE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
 
 
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO SLIDE  
EAST OF THE REGION, RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN  
AND WILL SLIDE EAST OF A KERRVILLE-SAN ANTONIO LINE MONDAY AND INTO  
THE COASTAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. HEAT BUILDS INTO THE REGION EVEN MORE  
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS RISING TO THE MID 90S TO  
THE LOW 100S BY WEDNESDAY AS THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS.  
THIS THERMAL RIDGE APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST ON THURSDAY WITH 850 MB  
TEMPERATURES 25-30 DEGREES C ACROSS THE REGION AND CONSEQUENTLY,  
THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH  
GULF MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE, THIS WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO HEAT  
INDEX VALUES IN THE 102-110 DEGREE RANGE AND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL  
PROBABLY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING  
WEEK. HEAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LOW RAIN  
CHANCES CREEPING BACK INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE  
FORECAST AS THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 91 74 92 75 / 10 30 30 30 10  
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 91 74 92 74 / 20 30 30 30 10  
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 73 93 74 / 10 20 30 30 -  
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 74 90 72 91 73 / 10 20 30 30 20  
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 95 74 97 76 / 10 - 20 - -  
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 73 92 74 / 10 30 30 40 20  
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 74 97 75 / 10 10 20 10 -  
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 93 73 92 74 / 10 30 30 30 10  
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 92 75 92 76 / 20 50 30 50 -  
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 93 74 94 75 / 10 20 30 20 -  
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 93 74 95 75 / 10 10 30 20 -  
 

 
   
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...HUFFMAN  
SHORT-TERM/LONG-TERM...YB  
 
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