631  
FXUS64 KEWX 200520  
AFDEWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
1220 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
THE TORNADO WATCH OVER ATASCOSA, DEWITT, AND KARNES COUNTIES HAS  
BEEN CANCELLED AS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES  
WILL REMAIN CONCENTRATED ACROSS SOUTH TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADJUSTED GRIDS AS WELL, INCLUDING POPS, TO  
MATCH LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THERE WAS SOME DECENT  
RAINFALL THAT HAD FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHEASTERN MOST  
COUNTIES THIS EVENING THAT HAD BEEN FORECAST TO SEE SOME LOWER  
AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT. SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF  
RAIN WITH A FEW LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THIS BAND HAS  
WEAKENED AND PRODUCING LESS EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. OTHERWISE,  
RAINFALL HAS BEEN GREATEST EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-10 AS  
FORECAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
*MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY  
THURSDAY.  
 
*CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS IS SEEN ACROSS THE FAR  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS.  
 
*RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN OVERALL.  
 
*ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT REMAINS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN-MOST  
COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
RAIN BANDS FROM WHAT IS NOW THE FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON,  
ALBERTO, ARE MOVING IN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SOME EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS. SO FAR, RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN TAME, BUT AS HEAVIER  
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10, ANY EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HOUR. THERE IS  
STILL A LOW END THREAT FOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING, AND THE  
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES  
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  
 
OVERALL, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES  
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA, WITH BETWEEN 0.5-2" FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
AREA. THE 12Z SOUNDING OUT OF CRP SHOWED PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2.5"  
ALONG WITH A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE ALL THE WAY UP TO 100MB. LONG,  
SKINNY PROFILES, ALONG WITH MODEST CAPE AND HIGH MOISTURE  
ENVIRONMENTS CAN PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL RAINFALL. DESPITE  
LOWERED AMOUNTS, THIS IS STILL A BENEFICIAL EVENT, AS IT WILL ACT TO  
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN DURING WHAT IS USUALLY ONE OF THE HOTTEST AND  
MOST HUMID MONTHS OF THE YEAR AND IT SHOULD HELP LIMIT SHORT TERM  
DROUGHT IMPACTS AS WE ADD SOME MOISTURE TO AREA SOILS WITHOUT  
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. SPEAKING OF SEVERE WEATHER, THERE IS A  
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR TORNADOES OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS,  
BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND  
THE LOW END CHANCE FOR FLOODING.  
 
THE HEAVIER RAIN THREAT SHOULD END FROM EAST TO WEST BY SUNRISE  
THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD  
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND FLASH  
FLOODING ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BEYOND 18Z THURSDAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOME 5-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE  
JUNE AS WELL, SO THE FIRST OFFICIAL DAY OF SUMMER WILL CERTAINLY NOT  
FEEL LIKE IT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
AS THE REMNANTS OF ALBERTO DISSIPATE OVER MEXICO THERE WILL STILL BE  
A DEEP, MOIST AIRMASS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG  
AND SOUTH OF I-10/HWY 90. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND AND  
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM,  
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED  
CONVECTION DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING EACH DAY SATURDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. SOME DAYS THE STORMS WILL SPREAD  
TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTH. CHANCES WILL MOSTLY BE SLIGHT AND MOST  
PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY  
WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM TO BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2024  
 
RAIN IS MOVING WEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SOME HEAVIER  
BANDS FORMING BEHIND THE MAIN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS. PREVAILING RAIN  
SHOWERS SHOULD END AT I-35 SITES AROUND 08Z WITH ONLY SOME VCSH  
EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR SAT/SSF THROUGH 10Z. DRT WILL LIKELY SEE -RA  
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE LULL IN ACTIVITY IS SHORT LIVED AS  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS  
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR, WITH  
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FOR THE HILL COUNTRY, RIO GRANDE PLAINS, AND  
SOUTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR 10Z. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN IN  
THE MORNING ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON  
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH  
GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS SHIFTING FROM THE EAST AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 75 93 74 / 30 10 10 0  
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 74 91 72 / 30 10 20 0  
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 88 74 91 72 / 50 10 30 0  
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 74 90 72 / 30 10 10 0  
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 77 93 77 / 60 60 50 20  
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 90 72 / 30 10 10 0  
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 74 89 73 / 50 20 30 10  
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 72 90 71 / 40 10 20 0  
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 74 90 73 / 30 0 30 0  
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 75 90 74 / 50 10 30 10  
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 76 91 75 / 50 10 30 0  
 

 
   
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ATASCOSA-DE WITT-DIMMIT-FRIO-  
GONZALES-KARNES-LAVACA-MAVERICK-WILSON-ZAVALA.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT-TERM...BRADY  
LONG-TERM...05  
AVIATION...27  
 
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