586
FXUS64 KEWX 012351
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
651 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A ROCKSPRINGS
TO HONDO TO PLEASANTON LINE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND
FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAIN AS OF
11:30 AM CDT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITH RADAR DETECTING A LINE OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WEST VAL VERDE COUNTY. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
TODAY, A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS LINGERS THERE.
IN ADDITION TO THAT, A SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. INSTABILITY IS
MODERATE WHICH IT IS ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN SEVERE HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. AS FAR AS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, THE PWAT VALUE OF
THE 12Z DRT SOUNDING CAME IN AT 1.49 INCHES WITH FORECAST VALUES
GOING UP INTO THE 1.7 TO 1.8 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED 3 INCHES FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE EVENING. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EXCLUDING THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.
DRY, BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WIND
GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO BE RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE WIND RELAXES
AND WIND GUST VALUES DECREASE TO 20 MPH OR LESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 50S ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAINS.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND THE RIO GRANDE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
REMAINING MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECK AND ASSOCIATED -RA IS MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH GUSTS STAYING BELOW 20 KT BY 09Z REGIONWIDE.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CIGS, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS. WHILE DRIER AIR AND RESIDUAL WINDS SHOULD MITIGATE
VSBY IMPACTS, HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SOME BR/MARGINALLY REDUCED
VSBYS AT KAUS DUE TO COOLER AND WETTER GROUNDS. LIGHTER NORTHEAST
WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 51 75 54 80 / 30 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 50 74 51 79 / 30 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 51 74 51 79 / 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 49 72 52 78 / 20 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 55 75 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 73 51 77 / 30 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 50 73 50 77 / 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 50 74 51 79 / 20 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 52 75 51 79 / 40 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 51 74 53 79 / 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 53 74 52 80 / 10 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TRAN
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