251
FXUS64 KEWX 141114
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
614 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 601 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
- STAY WEATHER AWARE AND CHECK FOR UPDATES AS WE GO THROUGH THIS WET
AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN PATTERN
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
NUMEROUS FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WE
REMAIN IN AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS. RECENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
A STRONG RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A
CLOSED HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
500MB FLOW OVER TEXAS HOWEVER IS FROM THE WEST WHILE THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A TROUGH IS NOW
LOCATED OVER OUR AREA HELPING TO IGNITE AND FUEL CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND ONLY INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH PW VALUES ALREADY EXCEEDING OVER TWO INCHES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH THESE HIGH VALUES, WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC STORM MOTION THAT COULD EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO TRAINING STORMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING TO CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE
FROM A WIDESPREAD 2-6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
UPWARDS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA PARTICULARLY
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A MULTI RAINFALL EVENT WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND
CONTINUING INTO THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7PM THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LIFE
THREATENING FLOODING SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA AND WE URGE
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO STAY WEATHER AWARE
AND CHECK ON WEATHER UPDATES.
THAT BEING SAID, WPC HAS INCLUDED MOST OF OUR CWA IN THE LEVEL 2 OF
4 (SLIGHT) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA WITH A
LEVEL 3 OF 4 (MODERATE) RISK FOR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO
BEXAR COUNTY(INCLUDING THE SAN ANTONIO METRO) AND PARTS OF THE
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY FOR TODAY. MANY OF THE SAME AREAS ARE IN A
LEVEL 3 OF 4 (MODERATE) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AGAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AREAS. TODAY'S
AND WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WITH MOST OF THE CWA NOT
REACHING 90 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
OUR WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS STAYING PUT, IN ADDITION, PULSES OF
ENERGY WILL BE COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PW WILL
REMAIN UNUSUALLY HIGH, HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN POSSIBLE. WPC KEEPS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA (RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU) IN A LEVEL 2 OF 4 (SLIGHT) RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A LEVEL 1 OF 4(MARGINAL) RISK ACROSS THE
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND PARTS OF BEXAR COUNTY. DEPENDING ON HOW
THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVES WILL DETERMINE IF WE CONTINUE TO SEE ELEVATED
FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
BY LATE WEEK THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD START TO READJUST, HOWEVER WE
WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST OUT IN OUR WESTERN AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND
LOOKS TO BE DRIER AT THIS POINT. WITH ALL OF THE CLOUDINESS AND
RAIN, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS
NOT REACHING 90 OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND STAYING BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE AS WE GET TO
SATURDAY WITH THE RETURN OF 90S AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE FILLING IN OVER THE I-35 SITES AND HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO GO WITH TEMPO TSRA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS
HAVE ALSO BEEN LOWERED INTO IFR WITH TSRA. WE WILL KEEP THE PROB30
GROUPS ALONG I-35 FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON STORMS AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. OUT WEST AT DRT, WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF TSRA, BUT RADAR TRENDS AND MODELS STILL SHOW
GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION HERE AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 85 73 85 72 / 90 40 70 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 73 85 72 / 90 40 80 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 73 84 72 / 80 40 80 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 83 71 84 70 / 90 40 70 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 71 84 71 / 90 70 80 90
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 84 71 86 71 / 90 40 70 50
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 84 72 82 70 / 90 60 80 80
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 86 73 84 72 / 80 40 80 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 74 85 74 / 90 20 60 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 74 83 73 / 80 50 80 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 86 74 84 73 / 80 40 80 70
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-183>192-
202>206-217>219-228.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...PLATT
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