044
FXUS64 KEWX 071127
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
527 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.
- NEAR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE RAIN BY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE
EXCEPTIONS OVER THE COUNTIES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
A TYPICAL SPRING COLD FRONT ARRIVES TODAY, BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN SINCE VALENTINES DAY AND POSSIBLY THE HIGHEST 2-DAY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SO FAR THIS YEAR. AS PROMISING AS THE PATTERN LOOKS, THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS PAINT A MORE UNCERTAIN PICTURE THAN DO THE
CONSENSUS BLENDS AND ENSEMBLES. THUS WE'LL HAVE TO GO THROUGH THE
CAREFUL WORDING OF SAYING "NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN" BUT ALSO
"QUALITY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 1/4 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER ABOUT
80 PERCENT OF OUR FORECAST AREA". THIS IS STATED HERE TO PROVIDE
SOME GUIDANCE TO ALL THE AGRICULTURE AND GARDENING INTERESTS OUT
THERE THAT ARE ANXIOUSLY AWAITING A SOAKING RAIN. THOSE MISSING OUT
OF THE HIGHER TOTALS WOULD LIKELY BE AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
AN EQUALLY SIGNIFICANT, IF NOT MORESO, CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT,
MODERATE SHEAR, AND ROBUST CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AT TIMES
COULD LEAD TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS
NEAREST TO THE FRONT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL SIZES IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES. IT IS MARCH AFTER ALL.
THE FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA COUNTIES BY AROUND
10 AM AND REACH AUSTIN AND DEL RIO BY AROUND NOON AS CLUSTERS OF
MOSTLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TAKES SHAPE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. SAN ANTONIO IS ALWAYS TOUGH TO PICK ON SPRING FRONT TIMING,
ESPECIALLY THOSE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SMALL SURFACE LOW NEAR SAN
ANTONIO WHICH COULD FURTHER CLOUD THE PICTURE ON WHEN THAT COOL AIR
WIND SHIFT TAKES PLACE. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW THE FRONT
THROUGH SAN ANTONIO BEFORE 3 PM. IF THAT TIMING IS ON POINT, IT
WOULD MEAN THAT SAN ANTONIO AND AREAS EAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THE STRONGEST OF STORMS AND
POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS. SINCE TRAINING ALONG THE
FRONT IS POSSIBLE, MESO-SCALE MODELS HINT OF AN ISOLATED TOTAL OR
TWO OVER 4 INCHES, MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PRAIRIES AND SOUTH OF SAN
ANTONIO.
SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THE MAINLY HAIL THREAT
WELL INTO THE EVENING AND WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST MODEL DATA
SHOWS WANING INTENSITIES JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. MOSTLY LIGHT
ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY,
AND THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS IS FORECAST AT A SOLID 50-80
PERCENT. TYPICAL QPF AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY UNDER 1/4
INCH. THE CONVECTION AN ALMOST SOLID CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD GIVE US A COOL BREAK FROM THE RECENT WARM PATTERN, BUT IT
SHOULDN'T LAST LONG.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
THE BROAD TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT TODAY'S FRONT WILL
SEPARATE FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH AS A CUT-OFF LOW SETS UP TO THE
WEST OF TX SUNDAY. THE LOW SHOULD NUDGE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD TX GIVING
THE AREA ANOTHER BIG RAIN CHANCE BY MIDWEEK.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
BUT RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE
FRONTAL LAYER DISSOLVES. BY MIDDAY MONDAY, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN BACK SOUTHERLY OVER ALL AREAS. THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS, BUT ALSO PLENTY OF BREAKS, AND THAT WILL LEAD TO A RETURN
OF WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM A COUPLE DAYS AGO WOULD HAVE SUGGESTED A
DIRECT HIT FROM THIS CUT-OFF LOW FROM TUESDAY INTO AS LATE AS
THURSDAY. ALL THIS IS PULLING AWAY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WORTH OF
MODEL RUNS, AND WE SHOULD SEE A CORRECTION IN THE BLENDED GUIDANCES
WITH A WEAKER CONVECTIVE PICTURE AND LOWERING QPF VALUES FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IF THE LATEST 00Z FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS WERE TO
VERIFY, IT WOULD STILL MEAN A GOOD ROUND OF CONVECTION FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL TX, AND NEAR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR THE EASTERN 3/4 OF THE
AREA, SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THE DPROG/DT TREND
SHIFT CONTINUES, WE COULD END UP WITH FURTHER DISAPPOINTMENT, AS THE
LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONTINUES TO WORSEN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST LEAVES NO OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN.
THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD LEAVE US AT LEAST 1 DAY OF SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES, BUT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ARE
SUGGESTED TO RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS ARE SEEN FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD,
BUT KEPT THE TREND OF MVFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY,
REACHING TERMINALS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THIS FEATURE AND MAY INITIALLY BE GUSTY.
THE MAIN UPDATE WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS BUMPING UP THE ARRIVAL OF TSRA
AN HOUR FOR I-35 SITES. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR I-35 TERMINALS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH THEY COULD OCCUR AS FAR WEST AS KDRT.
ANY RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 56 71 63 / 80 60 50 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 55 71 61 / 80 60 60 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 56 70 61 / 80 60 60 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 52 68 60 / 90 50 50 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 57 68 62 / 50 40 70 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 78 53 70 60 / 90 60 40 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 81 55 70 60 / 80 60 70 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 83 56 71 61 / 80 60 60 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 86 59 73 64 / 80 70 60 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 81 58 70 64 / 80 70 70 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 60 71 64 / 70 70 70 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...27
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