086
FXUS64 KEWX 140527
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN FREE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDICES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SOME
SPOTS FEELING LIKE 100-105+ SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN THE EARLY EVENING WAS JUXTAPOSED
DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL TX WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED ANTICYCLONIC
WIND CIRCULATION NOTED AT THE 700 MB LEVEL. THIS CORRELATES WITH THE
POOR AIR DISPERSION AND OZONE ACTION DAY ALERTS FOR TODAY CONVEYED
THROUGH US BY THE TCEQ. THE MID LEVEL PORTION OF THE RIDGE AXIS
COILS UP OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY WHILE AT
HIGHER LEVELS THE RIDGE DAMPENS INTO A BROAD BUT STILL POTENT UPPER
RIDGE TO CONTINUE A STABLE AIRMASS BELOW. THE SUBTLE CHANGE SHOULD
LEND TOWARD INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY AS
THE OVERALL RIDGE ALOFT DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST WITH SLIGHTLY FALLING
HEIGHTS BUILDING EAST INTO W TX. THE WINDS SHOULD STILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE OVER EAST COUNTIES, BUT AROUND DRT/ECU LAV GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING GUSTS OVER 25 MPH POSSIBLE WHERE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
FASTEST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST NAM TIME SECTIONS DEPICT A MORE
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER THAN IT DID YESTERDAY EVENING, AND THIS HAS LED
TO A BETTER MIX-OUT OF SURFACE DEW POINTS WITH THE LARGE MID-LEVEL
DRY LAYER, AND WE SAW THAT IN THE AFTERNOON RH PERCENTAGE VALUES
MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE COUNTY
SHOULD SEE THIS AGAIN TODAY AND THE EXTRA WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL
AMOUNTS OF RECENT PRECIPITATION FOR MAY MIGHT LEAD TO LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AGAIN WITH GOOD MIXING AND RIDGING
OVERHEAD OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD GET ABOUT A 1 TO 3
DEGREE BUMP OVER YESTERDAY'S MAXT VALUES.
THE LARGE DRY LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS IS SHOWN IN THE NAM DATA TO
SHRINK CONSIDERABLY IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY TIME-FRAME, AND
WE THINK THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BIG JUMP IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
FROM THE MOSTLY 50S VALUES WE'LL SEE FOR 00Z FRIDAY TO MOSTLY 60-65
DEGREE VALUES FOR 00Z SATURDAY. THIS COULD SLOW DOWN THE DAILY
WARMING TREND OF AMBIENT HEAT, BUT APPARENT TEMPERATURES, WHICH
ACTUALLY MIGHT HAVE FALLEN BELOW AMBIENT TEMPERATURE VALUES IN SOME
PLACES, WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB A DEGREE OR 3 WARMER THAN THE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE VALUES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS FRIDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANOTHER GREAT FAIR WEATHER DAY FOR OUTDOOR
OPPORTUNITIES, THE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY TOLERABLE, ESPECIALLY WITH THOSE AFTERNOON BREEZES AND GUSTS
TRENDING UPWARD. THE MORNING LOWS FOR FRIDAY WILL SEE THE MOST
NOTICEABLE JUMP WITH MAINLY A 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE SLOW EROSION OF THE UPPER RIDGING ALOFT AND UPSTREAM TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE MOIST LAYER AND REMOVE THE DRY MID LEVEL
LAYER OVER THE WEEKEND. A CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AND
NO POPS ARE THE CONTINUED GUIDANCE FOR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BENEATH THAT CAP WILL BE A PILE UP OF HIGHER MOISTURE HUMIDITY AND
HEAT INDEX IMPACTS THAT CONTINUE TO RISE EACH DAY GOING INTO
TUESDAY. SATURDAY'S VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR A STABLE MAY
AFTERNOON, BUT SUNDAY BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THAT NEED FOR MESSAGING
TERRITORY, WHERE MOST VALUES BEGIN HITTING IN THE 95 TO 105 WINDOW.
THEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE VALUES PEAK WITH BOTH DAYS DEPICTING
MOSTLY UPPER 90S TO AROUND 108 TYPE VALUES.
NOW THOSE HIGHER HEAT INDICES MAY COME WITH A CAVEAT. THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND FOR
MOST AREAS MONDAY, BUT DESTABILIZING CONDITIONS BEGIN TO WARRANT
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPANDED
INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY. SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, BUT IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO
SPECULATE ON THE ASSESSMENTS FROM THE SPC AND WPC WITH THE
DEVELOPING UNSTABLE SW FLOW ALOFT BEING SOMEWHAT BROAD AND VAGUE.
THIS WILL BE THE CASE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEING THE PERIOD THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT THE BEST
RAINFALL COVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR I-35 SITES,
WIND WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS. STRONGER WIND IS EXPECTED OUT WEST TODAY FROM 12-16 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. SUBTLE WEAKENING IN WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
SEEN AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 69 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 69 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 67 92 69 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 67 88 69 / 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 95 72 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 66 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 69 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...27
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