272
FXUS64 KEWX 091035
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
535 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SEASONABLY MILD TO COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OTHER
PERIODS OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS FOG TO LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING, THEN DISSIPATE. AS A RESULT, HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
COLD FRONT INVERSION IS ERODING SLOWLY AS THE LAYER OF SATURATION
CONTINUES TO LOWER TOWARD THE SURFACE. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE, BUT ALSO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THE PACE TO
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. A COOL START TO TODAY WILL END WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND CEILINGS BREAKING UP TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL. THE STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEND THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST TO
SPEED UP THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE
LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP WITH THIS
CONVECTION AND KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE OVER WEST TEXAS FOR THE FIRST
PART OF TUESDAY. CAPPING IS LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDDAY, BUT SLOW DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR
SHOULD SPREAD TO ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS PWAT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE, AND THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSOLATION IN BETWEEN CLOUDS TO GET MOST AREAS BACK
INTO THE 80S. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WE'RE MORE
FOCUSED ON THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
LATE TUESDAY, THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST CONTORTS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH
ORIENTED SLIGHTLY IN A POSITIVE TILT, WHICH IS TYPICALLY A NEGATIVE
SIGNAL FOR RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN SOUTH TX. WINDS PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT HAVE A CHANCES TO DEPLETE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENT AND SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE SHOWING THE LOW HOLDING ON TO SOME ITS MORE CUT-OFF
CHARACTERISTICS WHICH COULD SIGNAL MORE SEVERE STORMS AND MORE HEAVY
RAIN. THE NBM IS FOR NOW IN HAPPY MEDIUM BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS,
AND WE ARE COMFORTABLE WITH THE NARRATIVE APPROACH OF SPLITTING THE
DIFFERENCE FOR SOME GOOD RAINS, BUT MOSTLY OVER NW COUNTIES WHERE
THE STORMS WILL TAKE SOME EXTRA TIME MATERIALIZING. LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT, A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PROGRESS
EAST FASTER AND AT A TIME WHEN THE NOCTURNAL INFLOW WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER. THUS WE ANTICIPATE THE METRO CITIES TO SEE A LOCAL MINIMA OF
SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH A WEAK SQUALL/COLD FRONT ARRIVAL BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z. WITH THERE BEING A TREND FROM MORE THAN HALF THE MODELS IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS DEEPENING AND SLOWING DOWN THE SYSTEM AFTER
REACHING CENTRAL TX, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME STORM STRENGTHENING
AFTER 15Z OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST LEAVES NO OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN.
THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD LEAVE US AT LEAST 1 DAY OF SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES, BUT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ARE
SUGGESTED TO RETURN BY NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH VLIFR/LIFR WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE
MORNING TO MVFR, THEN VFR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, THEN DETERIORATE
AGAIN TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KDRT THIS AND
HAVE GONE WITH PROB30S FOR 10/00Z-06Z THERE. LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS
BECOME S TO SE AT 7 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 69 83 65 / 10 10 30 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 67 83 63 / 10 10 30 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 83 67 83 64 / 10 10 20 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 67 80 62 / 10 10 50 90
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 81 67 84 58 / 0 20 50 80
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 84 67 82 62 / 10 10 40 80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 65 83 59 / 10 20 30 80
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 67 84 63 / 10 10 20 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 69 84 67 / 10 10 20 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 68 83 65 / 10 10 30 80
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 83 69 85 65 / 10 10 20 70
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ171>173-
184>194-202>209-217>225-228.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...04
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