734
FXUS64 KEWX 150635
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
135 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND, THEN STORMY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDICES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SOME
SPOTS FEELING LIKE 100-105+ SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BUT SOME HIGHER TERRAIN ACTIVITY IN MEXICO AND WEST TX
COULD THREATEN TO SEND A STRAY STORM TOWARD THE VAL VERDE COUNTY
BORDER FRIDAY EVENING. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER TX CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRANSITION TOWARDS A LESS STABLE SW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A GUSTY SOUTH BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO FILL THE
NIGHTTIME AIR WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE, BUT FOR FRIDAY, THE
LAYER OF DRY AIR AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE LESS
EFFECTIVE IN MIXING DOWN TO LOWER AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW POINTS, SO
THE WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL CARRY A HIGHER HUMIDITY
AND HEAT INDEX. THEY WILL BE SOMEWHAT TYPICAL FOR A MID MAY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY, BUT THE INCREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL UNABLE TO GET STARTED THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD COVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA BY THE DAYBREAK HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HEAT INDICES WILL GET TO THE POINT WHERE WE
MAY NEED TO PUT OUT SOME CAUTIONARY MESSAGING THOSE SPENDING EXTRA
TIME OUTDOORS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THE CONTINUED WARMING AND MOISTURE LOADING WILL CONTINUE TO ESCALATE
SUNDAY, AND CONDITIONS COULD SEND HEAT INDEX VALUES TO THE NEAR THE
POINTS OF CONSIDERATION FOR HEAT ADVISORIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE
THINK THE HI THRESHOLDS OF 110 WEST & 108 EAST FOR OUR AREA ARE
MOSTLY SAFE BUT THAT CALL SHOULD BE MORE EASY TO MAKE BY SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE TROUGHING DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER THE
WRN CONUS SENDS A SHORTWAVE PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT AT THE SAME TIME WILL LOWER HEIGHTS
OVER W AND CENTRAL TX. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO NOT SHOW AN IMPACT ON
THE DRY-LINE, BUT WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LOAD UP OVER CENTRAL
TX, DO SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF STREAMER CONVECTION CLUSTER OVER OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES. WHILE THERE IS SKEPTICISM OVER WHETHER THE CAP CAN
BE OVERTAKEN AT THIS SPOT, IT'S ONLY A 15-20 PERCENT INDICATION. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THE BROAD SW ALOFT PATTERN OVER TX HAS MADE THE
EXPANSION TO MAKE ANY LOCATION IN OUR CWA A CANDIDATE FOR AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. CAPPING IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY TOUGH
TO OVERCOME AT THIS TIME, AND CONFIDENCE ON THIS PERIOD REMAINS TOO
LOW FOR US TO 2ND GUESS THE NBM GUIDANCE. BY TUESDAY HOWEVER, THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH ESCALATION FROM ACTIVITY ERUPTING OFF HIGHER
TERRAIN AND A POTENTIAL AREA OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY PROPAGATING SOUTH
FROM A NW TX FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WE SHOULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE.
AND HERE WE GO THROUGHOUT THE FULL WORK WEEK OF STORM INITIATION
DRIVEN BY HIGH PWAT VALUE POOLING, MCV'S, MCS'S, AND REMNANT
BOUNDARIES TO PAINT A STORMY, BUT VAGUE PICTURE. IT IS ASSUMED THAT
ONE TREND WILL BE MORE PREDICTABLE IN THAT THE AREAS OF DAILY
CONVECTION SHOULD TAKE A TOLL ON THE TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES.
THERE COULD BE A MID-WEEK FRONT, BUT THERE ISN'T ENOUGH MODEL
SUPPORT TO SPECIFY, AND IF THE FRONT DID GET HERE, THE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES WOULD PROBABLY MAINLY CLOUD-COVER DEPENDENT.
AT SOME POINT WE'LL ALSO WANT TO ADDRESS A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
THREAT. GIVEN A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, WE'LL ASSUME
COVERAGE BEGINS FAIRLY LOW, WHICH MIGHT FAVOR A SLOW START AND
APPROPRIATE MESSAGING TO POINT MORE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
ALL TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING IN THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS,
BUT ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS. DRT WILL BE VFR FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS BY
LATE MORNING AND REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY UNTIL EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 71 92 75 / 0 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 72 92 77 / 0 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 69 91 75 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 69 87 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 96 72 94 76 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 90 74 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 70 92 75 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 71 92 76 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 71 90 76 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 71 92 76 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 94 71 92 76 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...05
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