159
FXUS64 KEWX 202259
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
559 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN
CONTINUES TODAY INTO TONIGHT, INCLUDING THE EASTERN HILL COUNTY,
I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS.
- SOGGY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
- COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND A WARMING TREND FOR LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS UNDER COOL AND RAINY
CONDITIONS AS A LARGE-SCALE OVERRUNNING PATTERN PERSISTS ATOP A
SHALLOW AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
SIZABLE SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN MAINLY
ALONG AND NEAR I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE HILL COUNTRY AND SAN
ANTONIO AREA, AND THIS HAS ALREADY LED TO CLOSURE OF SOME LOW-
WATER CROSSINGS AS SOILS CONTINUE TO SATURATE. VWPS FROM KEWX AND
KDFX NEXRADS SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW 1-3 KM ABOVE THE SURFACE,
ALLOWING A RICH FLOW OF ELEVATED MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TOWARDS A
MID-LEVEL VORTMAX OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN. THESE BROAD RAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE MASS OF MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME IN TANDEM WITH THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. DISTINCT FROM THAT FEATURE, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
WILL SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR SOME DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, STARTING
AROUND THE RIO GRANDE AND THEN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
BALCONES ESCARPMENT OR US-90 CORRIDOR WEST OF SAN ANTONIO BEFORE
CONTINUING EAST TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT,
FEEDING ON A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL LIKELY
ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THESE AREAS, AND POTENTIALLY OVERLAP
WITH AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO FAR
TODAY. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH, SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION WITHIN 90TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE PWATS. DESPITE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY, THIS REPETITIVE RAINS MAY ADD
A SWATH OF ADDITIONAL 2-4" RAIN ATOP OF WHAT'S ALREADY FALLEN. IF
THESE SWATHS TRAIN OVER MORE BUILT-UP AREAS ON THE I-35
CORRIDOR... A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY NOTED IN THE HI-RES MODELS...
THIS WOULD RAISE CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED URBAN AND FLASH FLOODING,
AND THIS IS ENCAPSULATED IN THE WPC'S LEVEL 2 OF 4 (SLIGHT) RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL
COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS. THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF THESE STORMS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TONIGHT.
THE SLOWER MOVING, MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY CURRENTLY TO
OUR WEST WILL SHIFT INTO OKLAHOMA AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST TOMORROW,
PUSHING THE FAVORED AREAS FOR ASCENT FARTHER EAST. THE HI-RES
MODELS TEND TO SHOW SOME REDUCTION IN RAIN COVERAGE TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE, BUT WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT REMAINING STOUT, RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN LIKELY TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35,
ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
TRY TO WARM UP SOME AS SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAKES A RATHER
UNCONVINCING RETURN, BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM CLIMBING MUCH HIGHER THAN THE 60S FOR MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
A DRYING TREND SHOULD START TO KICK IN MIDWEEK AS THE NEARBY
DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE FARTHER EAST, ALLOWING DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR
TO RETURN TO OUR AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND
TOWARDS SEASONABLY WARM LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM CHANCES (50
TO 60 PERCENT) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
PERSISTENT BUT WEAKER SOUTHERLY MOIST TRANSPORT.
A PREVAILING MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING DEW POINTS
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING NEVER
TRULY REESTABLISHES OVER OUR AREA LATER THIS WEEK, WARM AIR ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP MORE OF A LID ON SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND ACCENTUATE A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. A PASSERBY DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY, BUT CURRENTLY THESE
CHANGES ARE QUITE LIMITED (UP TO ABOUT 20 PERCENT) GIVEN THE
LIKELY CAPPING IN PLACE. OVER THE WEEKEND, AMPLIFYING TROUGHING
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE ZONAL ORIENTATION OF THE BROADER FLOW IS A
LIMITING FACTOR ON THIS POTENTIAL AND BLURS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIMING FOR RAIN, BUT AMPLE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE TO PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT SUITABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH
LOWS RETURNING HUMID INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S WITH THE MOIST SOUTH
WIND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS MAINLY FOCUSED FROM THE HILL COUNTRY EAST INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE OUT WEST. A MIX OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM VFR TO LIFR
ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR TODAY, BUT IN
GENERAL, EXPECT RAINY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER KAUS/KSAT THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, THEN SEE AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT FOR ALL
I-35 TERMINALS. AT KDRT, THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER FEW
HOURS THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THOUGH RAIN MAY CONTINUE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT, CEILINGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IFR TO LIFR
WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WILL BE
GENERALLY BE VFR TO MVFR OVERNIGHT, THOUGH COULD SEE LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 69 63 82 / 80 80 40 50
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 58 69 63 81 / 80 80 40 50
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 57 72 63 82 / 80 80 40 50
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 55 66 60 79 / 90 80 30 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 78 67 83 / 60 10 30 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 57 67 62 80 / 80 80 40 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 57 71 64 80 / 90 50 40 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 58 70 63 81 / 80 80 40 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 59 72 63 81 / 80 80 40 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 72 65 82 / 80 70 40 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 60 73 65 82 / 80 60 40 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...27
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