696
FXUS64 KEWX 211142
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
542 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES...
- A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10
WITH WARMER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO
RETURN SUNDAY
A DRY AND MOSTLY STABLE NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD MAKE FOR AN
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WEEKEND. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ONLY A SLOW RETURN OF DEW POINT TEMPS AS WE LOOK FOR MORE SUNNY
SKIES AND SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES. WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE BY
00Z SUNDAY, AND THE H850 WINDS WILL BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE LAYER IN
BRINGING UP GULF MOISTURE POOLING THATS CURRENTLY PINNED ALONG THE
WEST GULF COAST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD FORM IN
A FEW POCKETS AS EARLY AS 09Z SUNDAY OVER SOME AREAS WEST OF SAT,
AND A LAYER OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST INTO
THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. PARTS OF THE WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY COULD BE THE COOL SPOTS OF THE DAY SUNDAY WHERE THE
CLOUD COVER COULD BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME OF THE FINER
RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES WEST OF HWY 281 FOR
DAYTIME SUNDAY, BUT WE THINK THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF THIS WOULD BE
TOO LOW TO MENTION AS PART OF THE WORDED FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES...
-WARMUP COMMENCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE
-CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING OUR AREA CHRISTMAS
EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
-SWITCH OVER INTO A PROGRESSIVE WETTER PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FEATURES THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
OUR AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. THESE CLOUDS
WILL STICK AROUND OUR AREA AND HELP ELEVATE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AREA WIDE. MONDAYS
HIGHS WILL BE QUITE WARM CONSIDERING THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK WE WILL
BE UNDER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS WITH EVEN SOME
80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. CHRISTMAS EVE
LOOKS TO REMAIN WARM WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA.
AS HAS BEEN STATED IN PRIOR DISCUSSIONS, THIS CHRISTMAS EVE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BRING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN A
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE WPC CURRENTLY
HAS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY SO FAR. THE RECENT RUNS
OF THE EURO CONTINUE TO PAINT A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR I-35
CORRIDOR TO POINTS ON SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ALBEIT WITH A WEAKER FRONT
AND A LESS WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT THAT JUST CLIPS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. TENDING TO LEAN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR NOW JUST
BASED ON THE TYPICAL PATTERNS THAT OUR AREA RECEIVES. ADDITIONALLY,
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL BEYOND HI- RES MODEL GUIDANCE SO IT WOULD BE
PRUDENT TO CHECK THOSE MODELS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM
ONCE THAT DATA COMES IN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UNTIL THEN
CAPPED POPS AT 40-50 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY FOR NOW.
LASTLY, REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IT LOOKS TO IMPACT MAINLY OUR EASTERN
CWA WITH AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SEEING POSSIBLY NO
RAINFALL AT ALL. EITHER WAY THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE OUT BEFORE
CHRISTMAS DAY LEAVING ENOUGH TIME FOR SANTA TO MAKE HIS ROUNDS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE HOT ON OUR TAIL AND IMPACTING OUR AREA IN
THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING EVEN MORE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LASTLY, A
THIRD SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT OUR CWA TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS WELL. SO IT SEEMS WE MAY HAVE FINALLY TURNED THE CORNER
INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF
DECEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR SKIES SHOULD LAST AT ALL SITES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A FEW LOW VFR
CIGS COULD BE MOVING UP THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BY 12Z, BUT NO MVFR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO THREATEN THE 4 TAF SITES. PERHAPS AN MVFR CIG
COULD MOVE INTO SAT/SSF/DRT AREAS AFTER 12Z FOR THE 18Z UPDATE
CONSIDERATIONS. LIGHT E/NE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE, MAINLY ALONG I-35,
BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD BE TRENDING TOWARDS A SE OR ESE DIRECTION BY
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 42 67 54 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 62 38 67 54 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 41 69 55 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 41 65 54 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 50 70 58 / 0 0 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 61 38 66 54 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 44 67 57 / 0 10 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 63 39 67 54 / 0 0 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 62 38 68 52 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 64 43 67 57 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 65 44 69 58 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...18
LONG-TERM...CJM
AVIATION...18
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page