762
FXUS64 KEWX 011837
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
137 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BELOW
AVERAGE EASTER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MOSTLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
HE APPROACH OF A NEUTRALLY TILTED TROUGH TODAY IS FORECAST TO
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE
OVER WEST TEXAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. THESE
WILL TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, REACHING PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10.
THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A MORE NORTH AND SLOWER WITH STORMS
DURING TONIGHT'S EVENT, AND THE MAIN RISK AREAS HAVE TENDED TO SHIFT
FARTHER FROM OUR AREA. STILL, THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE STORMS MAY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE HILL
COUNTRY/HIGHLAND LAKES AND AUSTIN AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS PAST SUNRISE. ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETERS, INCLUDING MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
WIND SHEAR, SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
SHIFTING FROM HAIL WHEN STORMS FIRST FORM OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
TO WIND ONCE STORMS BEGIN TO CONGEAL. INSTABILITY IS THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR ON SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT IS
CLOSER TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE GREATER ENERGY EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT SUPPORTS BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS. THE SPC
HIGHLIGHTS A LEVEL 1 (MARGINAL) TO LEVEL 2 (SLIGHT) OUT OF 5 RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THOSE AREAS. THE THREAT TAPERS OFF AS THE
STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST AND ENCOUNTER LACKLUSTER INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 100-500 J/KG. STILL, STORMS MAY STILL BE
PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS AS THEY CROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AND ENTER THE COASTAL PLAINS GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE
NEARBY TROUGH AND A HEALTHY SUPPLY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. OVERALL
RAIN TOTALS FROM THIS EVENT CONTINUE TO SHOW AMOUNTS MAINLY BETWEEN
0.5-1.5 INCHES FOR AREAS SEEING THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH IT DOES LOOK
LIKE PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS MAY MISS OUT ENTIRELY ON
BENEFICIAL RAINS.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON (WITH POPS ABOUT 20 PERCENT), THOUGH THE HOLDOUTS WILL
LIKELY BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. THE CLOUDY AND FOR
SOME AREAS RAINY START TO THURSDAY WILL HELP BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
SOME, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-10, THOUGH THE LACK OF A FRONT WILL
ALLOW A SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO CONTINUE AND KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY
WARM. DEW POINTS AREN'T EXPECTED TO WAVER MUCH AND WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO A MILD AND MUGGY THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE WARM
LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS INTACT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS, SENDING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, INCREASED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A FEW WEAKER IMPULSES ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL
JET OVER MEXICO MAY LEAD TO A FEW SPORADIC SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY.
THEN, THE INCOMING TROUGH MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON THE DRY LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT'S
ARRIVAL SATURDAY PRODUCES ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-10 ON SUNDAY AS A
FEW WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES OVERRUN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS BEFORE
RIDGING REBUILDS AND BRINGS AN END TO THE WETTER PERIOD BY MONDAY.
THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY,
BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE FRONT AND THE PRE-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, LEADING TO
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TO START NEXT WEEK ARE FORECAST TO
BEGIN IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THE RETURN OF RIDGING WILL ALLOW
FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, BUT SUPPRESSION OF THE WARMER MEXICAN
PLATEAU AIRMASS TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF
BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR SITES THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. DRT COULD GO MVFR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE
BECOMING VFR FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 24
TO 28 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID/LATE EVENING
ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS RETURN FOR THE I-35 TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST NOON THURSDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS FOR AUS AND SAT AS A LINE OF SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THERE IS 30 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY
FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME,
THERE IS A WINDOW FROM 15Z TO 17Z WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FOR DRT, THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW FOR MVFR
CIGS AROUND 14Z TO 16Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 17Z
THURSDAY AT ALL AREA SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 81 70 87 / 20 50 10 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 82 69 87 / 20 50 10 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 82 68 87 / 10 30 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 68 83 / 40 60 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 86 70 88 / 20 0 10 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 81 68 86 / 30 60 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 86 67 89 / 10 20 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 83 69 87 / 10 40 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 82 70 87 / 10 30 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 83 70 87 / 10 30 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 86 70 89 / 10 20 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...17
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