587
FXUS64 KEWX 130603
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
103 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A DANGEROUS RISK WITH POTENTIAL OF HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOODING IS
FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
- LEVEL 3 OF 4 RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
HILL COUNTRY; A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND/OR
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 9 TO 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
- RAPID RIVER RISES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS FLASH
FLOODING EVENT
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
A DANGEROUS RISK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HIGH IMPACT FLASH FLOODING
EVENT IS UNFOLDING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VARIOUS METEOROLOGICAL
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO COME TOGETHER TO CREATE HEAVY RAIN RATES (2
TO 4 INCHES/HR) LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING AND RAPID RIVER RISES. THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
SAN ANGELO AREA AS ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE (LINE OF STORMS). THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION SINCE WE
ALREADY HAD A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT LAST WEEK WITH SOILS NEAR
TO SATURATION OR AT SATURATION LEVELS. RUNOFF WILL TAKE OVER QUICKLY
MAKING RIVERS TO RISE TO DANGEROUS LEVELS IN ADDITION TO FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS AND LOW WATER
CROSSING. HIRES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TONIGHT'S HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT AND THEREFORE, OUR CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH AS
FAR AS OCCURRENCE AND LOCATIONS. WITH THAT SAID, HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FLOOD WATCH PERIOD WITH 2 TO 4
INCHES AND ISOLATED 9 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE FLOOD WATCH GETS EXTENDED AND
EXPANDED ON SUNDAY WITH NEW DATA SUGGESTING FOR HEAVY RAIN TO
CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX LINGERS AROUND THE HILL COUNTRY. FOR NOW, WE ARE
CONCENTRATING FOR THE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, RELATIVELY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT SEASONAL
VALUES FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK AND REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2025
MVFR CIGS RETURN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TERMINALS AND STAY
THROUGH MID MORNING ON SUNDAY. WE ARE EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY, SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, AND RIO GRANDE. AT THIS TIME, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE AIRPORTS. BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, RAIN CHANCES AND THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES INCREASE FOR THE I-35 SITES AND KDRT. STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. A SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE DURING THIS FORECAST
CYCLE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS .
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 74 93 75 / 60 20 20 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 74 92 75 / 50 20 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 73 94 74 / 40 20 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 72 90 73 / 70 30 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 95 76 95 77 / 30 40 20 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 92 74 / 60 30 20 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 73 93 75 / 30 30 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 93 73 93 74 / 50 20 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 75 92 75 / 50 20 30 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 75 93 76 / 30 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 95 76 / 30 20 20 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BANDERA-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-
COMAL-EDWARDS-GILLESPIE-HAYS-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LLANO-MEDINA-REAL-
TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON.
SHORT-TERM...17
LONG-TERM...17
AVIATION...17
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