097  
FXUS64 KEWX 221119  
AFDEWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
519 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
KEY POINTS  
 
-RED FLAG WARNING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RIO GRANDE  
PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.  
-FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
FARTHER EAST TO THE I-35/I-37 CORRIDORS.  
 
A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN LOW  
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS  
MORNING. THIS WILL CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY AS A DRYLINE, THEN PACIFIC  
FRONT MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW  
PATCHES OF DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE DEPTH IS LACKING FOR  
ANY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, A DRIER DOWNSLOPING  
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. THIS FLOW WILL MAKE TODAY WARMER  
THAN YESTERDAY WITH WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RECORD  
HIGHS FOR THE 22ND ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND NOT IN JEOPARDY.  
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEVELOP TODAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION  
BELOW FOR DETAILS.  
 
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD OUR AREA TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH  
TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE  
MUCH WEAKER THAN THE LAST FEW FRONTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT KEEPS WINDS BREEZY IN MOST AREAS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS THE ABOVE  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE ON THE WAY UPWARDS AS SOUTHERLY  
SURFACE WINDS RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS  
MAINTAIN ALOFT INTO TUESDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES MORE  
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
ADVANCES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL TREND AS THE WARMEST DAYS WITHIN THE LONG  
TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST WITH LOWER 90S TOWARDS THE RIO  
GRANDE. MONDAY PROBABLY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE  
HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, AS A RESULT OF  
GREATER SUNSHINE FORECAST COMPARED TO TUESDAY. THE MODERATE AND  
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL  
RESULT IN GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND UPTICK IN CLOUD COVER  
ACROSS THE REGION. A DRYLINE MAY BE IN PLAY INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL  
LIKELY STAY WEST OF OR JUST CLIP RURAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN  
EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS DRYLINE MAY MOVE EAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY  
BEFORE BECOMING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED BELOW.  
 
A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO  
OUR NORTH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON  
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT, SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW, REMAINS MAINLY  
MOISTURE STARVED BUT A VERY LOW CHANCE (10%) OF A SHOWER WILL BE  
POSSIBLE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO BREEZY  
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN ARRIVE  
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO LEAP DAY (FEBRUARY 29TH).  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
MVFR CIGS MOST AREAS WITH IFR CIGS/LOCAL IFR/MVFR VSBYS IN THE HILL  
COUNTRY WILL ERODE TO THE EAST WITH PASSAGE OF A DRYLINE/PACIFIC  
FRONT. EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR AT KDRT AROUND 14Z AND AT THE I-35 SITES  
AROUND 16Z. THEN, VFR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT  
WINDS LESS THAN 6 KTS BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 10 TO 20 KTS/A FEW  
GUSTS TO 30 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KDRT. WINDS TURN  
NORTHERLY 6 TO 12 KTS THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST THU FEB 22 2024  
 
TODAY, THE DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS MAKE  
FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RELATIVE  
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 20% ALONG AND WEST OF I-35/I-37 CORRIDORS  
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY, EDWARDS PLATEAU, RIO GRANDE PLAINS, AND  
WINTER GARDEN REGIONS. WINDS OF AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30  
MPH ARE EXPECTED. WHILE FUEL MOISTURES ARE NORMAL TO MOIST, OTHER  
FACTORS INDICATE A HIGHER THREAT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
ARE FORECAST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE THIS SEASON AND FUELS REMAIN CURED. ALSO,  
THE LOWEST HUMIDITIES OF NEAR 10 PERCENT ARE FORECAST AND TAMFS 10  
HOUR FUELS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWEST 3 PERCENTILE. AS A  
RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THOSE AREAS. FARTHER  
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND WINTER GARDEN TO THE I-35  
AND I-37 CORRIDORS, THERE HAS BEEN MORE RAIN AND THUS SOME GREENUP.  
HOWEVER, TAMFS 10 HOUR FUELS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWEST 4 TO  
10 PERCENTILE AND WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THOSE  
AREAS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 86 53 74 49 / 0 0 0 0  
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 87 53 74 45 / 0 0 0 0  
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 53 75 47 / 0 0 0 0  
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 50 71 46 / 0 0 0 0  
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 51 79 52 / 0 0 0 0  
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 86 53 72 46 / 0 0 0 0  
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 88 53 78 48 / 0 0 0 0  
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 87 53 74 46 / 0 0 0 0  
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 53 72 47 / 0 0 0 0  
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 87 54 74 50 / 0 0 0 0  
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 88 56 76 49 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT-TERM...04  
LONG-TERM...BRADY  
AVIATION...04  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page Main Text Page