392
FXUS64 KEWX 221046
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
546 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY.
- UNSEASONABLE HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SOME REPRIEVE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT 250MB WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BENEATH THIS RIDGING, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTH TEXAS WILL SAG A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR AREA TODAY. ITS PRESENCE
ALONE WON'T CHANGE TEMPERATURES MUCH, BUT IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LOW AND ALLOW FOR CONTINUED OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY GIVEN VERY MINIMAL AMOUNTS
OF WIND SHEAR, AND ACCORDINGLY, SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUTS FROM
THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, DCAPE VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND WILL
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS AND OUTFLOWS FROM DECAYING STORM CELLS. DEEP-
LAYER STEERING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK, SO A FEW SLOW-MOVING
STORMS COULD REASONABLY DROP AN ISOLATED POCKET OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED, SO OVERALL MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY AND FEW WILL SEE THESE RAINS.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SMEARED OUT ON
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND
RIDGING CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. THIS RESULTS IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE DAY, BUT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS WEAK AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SPARSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REMAIN ON TRACK TO BE
UNSEASONABLY HOT. DEEP RIDGING IS PREVENTING COOLER AIR FROM
ADVANCING INTO THE AREA, SO FOR THE TIME BEING WE ARE LEFT WITH A
STAGNANT HUMID AND HOT AIRMASS KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT THE UPPER END
OF THE LATE SEPTEMBER DISTRIBUTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 90S WITH ISOLATED VALUES AROUND 100-102F.
PEAK HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100F TO 107F AS DEW
POINTS CONTINUE TO HOVER CLOSE TO THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SPOTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE PATTERN TRENDS DRIER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER TEXAS. THE HOT AND VERY UN-AUTUMN-LIKE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S AND LOWS STILL LARGELY IN THE 70S. ONE WRINKLE IN THE
FORECAST IS THAT THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO
BE SIPHONED OFF FROM THE MIDWEST, WHICH WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO
DROP INTO THE 50S FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10, PROVIDING MORE OF A DRY HEAT. THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RESTRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US, RESULTING IN A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO START
NEXT WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES STAY LOW WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, LIMITED TO THE
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SHOWER CLOSER TO THE COAST OR TO THE RIO
GRANDE. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK BOLSTERED
BY WESTERN TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SQUASH THE RIDGE SOUTHWARD, AND
THIS IS REFLECTED ACROSS BOTH THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THIS FAVORS A POSSIBLE SHIFT TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK TO CLOSE OUT SEPTEMBER AND USHER IN
OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OTHER THAN TO MOVE FORWARD THE MVFR CEILINGS AT
SAT AND SSF. WINDS REMAIN NEARLY CALM AT AUS AND CALM AT SAT AND
SSF. ONCE VFR CEILINGS RETURN, WINDS PICK UP AS LOW STRATUS MIX
OUT. AS OF THE 12Z TAFS, VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT
ALONG WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THAN 3 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 100 76 100 76 / 20 20 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 76 99 76 / 20 20 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 98 74 98 74 / 20 20 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 94 73 95 73 / 20 20 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 98 75 97 74 / 10 10 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 98 75 98 75 / 20 20 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 95 74 95 74 / 20 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 99 74 99 74 / 20 20 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 76 100 76 / 20 20 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 96 77 96 77 / 20 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 96 77 96 76 / 20 10 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...MMM
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