299
FXUS64 KEWX 241839
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
139 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HILL
COUNTRY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IF CAP BREAKS.
- ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES
POSSIBLE.
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND I-35 CORRIDOR AT LEAST THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REST OF THE
LOCAL AREA COULD REMAIN THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, DAY TIME HEATING WILL HELP TODAY'S HIGHS TO
REACH THE UPPER 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER
90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
QUIET FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PERIOD,
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY,
AND I-35 CORRIDOR. IF THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BREAKS,
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. MAIN HAZARD LIKELY
TO BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION TO THAT, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS AND CAN'T RULE OUT A
QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS STORM
MOTION IS RELATIVELY WEAK.
LOOKING INTO MONDAY, THE WEATHER FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS
FOR MOST AREAS WITH A FEW STORMS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE AUSTIN METRO AREA MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME, NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS IF THEY MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
MONDAY'S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND LOWER 90S ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. AT
LOWER LEVELS, A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE LIKELY TO BE LOCATED OVER THE PECOS AREA. THE
INITIAL CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND THEN MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. AS THE LINE OF STORMS PUSHES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, THE SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS
ANTICIPATED ARE LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO. IN ADDITION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE WITH PWATS RUNNING FROM 1.5 INCHES TO 2.0 INCHES
AREAWIDE. THEREFORE, A CONCERN FOR FLOODING IS GROWING FOR SOME
PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA AS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
FROM TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT
LOCALIZED 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THAT PERIOD.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD INTO THURSDAY. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE DRY WEATHER TREND EXPANDS FOR ALL OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
MUCH BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ALL I-35 TAF SITES
REMAINING IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO VRB AT TIMES BEFORE SWITCHING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ISNT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD AT THIS TIME. FOR KDRT MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR AS THIS CLOUD DECK EVENTUALLY ERODES BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH VFR CIGS CONTINUING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 91 70 89 / 10 20 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 91 70 89 / 10 20 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 89 69 87 / 10 20 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 87 67 86 / 20 20 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 93 73 89 / 10 0 20 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 88 69 88 / 10 20 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 88 70 86 / 10 0 0 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 69 88 / 0 20 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 89 70 88 / 0 20 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 89 70 87 / 10 10 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 89 71 88 / 0 10 0 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CJM
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