699
FXUS64 KEWX 131850
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
150 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH
MANY AREAS THAT SAW SUN ALREADY WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO DRY OUT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA AFTER THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS OF RAINFALL THAT WE HAD. THE ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT MORE
STABLE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA TODAY SO WE
AREN'T EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WE HAVE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AS ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS A DRYLINE OVER WEST TX TRIES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD.
MOST HI-RES MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
AS FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND DISPLACED MUCH FURTHER NORTH.
NEVERTHELESS, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM OVER WEST TX AND MEXICO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE
HAIL. AS SUCH SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA IN A LEVEL 1 OF
5 RISK BUT AS MENTIONED IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THESE STORMS
FORM AND CAN MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
WE COULD HAVE A SIMILAR SITUATION FOR TUESDAY AS THE DRY
LINE ONCE AGAIN TRIES TO MOVE FATHER EAST THUS HELPING TO SPARK
OFF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES,
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. THE FORCING LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER AS
A WESTERN TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER EASTWARD AND CLOSER TO OUR AREA
TOMORROW. SPC HAS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU IN A LEVEL
2 OF 5 RISK WITH A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG WITH VERY HUMID CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
WE REMAIN IN A VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN OF BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO KEEP OUR AREA ON THE MORE ACTIVE SIDE
WEATHER WISE. WE CONTINUE TO SEE IMPULSES EJECT OUT WEST AND MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH THE NEXT ONE ARRIVING SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE
OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS AND HOW THE STORMS
EVOLVE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT
ON HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MORE STORMS THAT
FORM THE LESS ENERGY LEFTOVER AND VICE VERSA. REGARDLESS, SPC HAS
THE SAME AREA IN A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY WE GET A BRIEF BREAK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVERHEAD AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO SPILL IN LASTING UNTIL
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S. BY SATURDAY GLOBAL MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
TX LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF POSSIBLY ACTIVE WEATHER HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME IT'S TOO FAR OUT TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS. ONCE THIS
FRONT PASSES BOTH MODELS ARE HINTING AT MUCH COLDER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH HIGHS THAT WERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY AS
CAA CONTINUES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT ALL SITES
TONIGHT INTO LATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE VFR
RETURNS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-15 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRT MAY EXPERIENCE SOME TSRA AT THE TERMINAL,
SO A PROB30 WAS UTILIZED FROM 03Z-07Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 84 69 85 / 10 0 10 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 84 67 84 / 10 0 10 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 68 85 / 10 0 10 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 82 66 80 / 10 10 20 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 84 69 84 / 50 40 60 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 68 82 67 81 / 10 0 10 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 66 82 / 20 10 20 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 68 85 / 10 0 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 85 69 86 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 84 69 84 / 10 0 10 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 85 70 85 / 10 0 10 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...MMM
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