047
FXUS64 KEWX 231118
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
618 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
AVIATION
IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE AT THE I35 SITES THIS MORNING AND COULD
SNEAK INTO DRT BEFORE THINGS LIFT BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE CEILINGS, ALSO SEEING SOME PATCHY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL. ALSO SEEING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WELL EAST OF THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY IMPACTS FROM THAT
WITH THE BULK OF THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 222 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL DATA
THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR. OVERALL CHANCES FOR THIS
ACTIVITY AND ANY SUBSEQUENT ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL WERE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD LIFT BY THE NOON HOUR AND TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER OR
STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I35 CORRIDOR. ANY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL FROM THE
ACTIVITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER TEXAS WHILE A COLD FRONT
STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE KEEPS
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA
WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SOUTH OF THE FRONT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS COULD THREATEN
RECORDS FOR THE 25TH OF OCTOBER.
IT APPEARS THAT A POTENTIALLY WET MID WEEK IS BACK ON THE TABLE FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. RUNS OF THE GFS A FEW DAYS AGO SHOWED
THE MOIST REMAINS OF EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY, THEN RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS TRENDED
TOWARD THE OTHER MODELS IN KEEPING IT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.
NOW, ALL MODELS SHOW THE REMAINS MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
WILL RE-INTRODUCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AND PACIFIC
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, THOUGH
INCREASED THEM A LITTLE. SOME SPOTS COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO OF
RAIN FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND PERHAPS A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO OUR AREA WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DRIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. A DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED. LOWER DEWPOINTS ALLOW FOR NEAR TO
PERHAPS BELOW AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES WHILE A PREVAILING
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW COUNTERBALANCES ANY COLD
ADVECTION TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT MIXING WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
COULD POTENTIALLY BRING WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A DRY AIRMASS MAY
BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD MID WEEK RAINFALL BE LESS THAN
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 85 69 87 70 91 / 20 10 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 69 87 69 90 / 20 10 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 68 89 69 91 / 20 10 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 84 69 86 67 90 / - - - 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 88 72 90 69 95 / - 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 85 69 87 69 90 / 10 - - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 90 68 93 / - - - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 68 88 69 91 / 20 10 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 70 90 72 92 / 40 - 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 70 87 70 91 / 20 10 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 72 91 72 93 / 20 10 - 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
LONG-TERM...04
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