666
FXUS64 KEWX 222041
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
241 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
- A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING DANGEROUS COLD TEMPERATURES
AND A PROLONGED FREEZE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ALL AREAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS WITH
EXTREME COLD WATCHES STILL IN EFFECT AS CONFIDENCE IN A
FREEZING RAIN EVENT CONTINUES INCREASING FOR THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN AREAS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
- MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT LIMITED FOR THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK STILL
HOLDING ON IN OUR EASTERN AREAS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. WE EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S
AND LOW 70S. TONIGHT EXPECT LOWS TO STAY VERY MILD WITH MANY
REMAINING IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 AS ANOTHER CLOUD DECK MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS TX AND EVENTUALLY INTO OUR AREA AS WE WAKE UP TOMORROW
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, WE COULD
SEE AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
FOR FRIDAY EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING AS SOME HI RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
WESTERN AREAS SEEING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO
FILL IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS WE START TO SEE THE FIRST REAL
PUSH OF MOISUTRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS LONG ADVERTISED ARCTIC
FRONT. FRIDAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE FROM
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS HELP MODERATE TEMPS. IN FACT, WE COULD SEE TEMPS
STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TO WARM TOMORROW. EVERYTHING CHANGES BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, ITS AT THIS POINT THAT WE EXPECT SOME AREAS TO START
FLIRTING WITH THE CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND OR PERHAPS
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX, MORE ON THIS BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN NOTED FOR THIS CYCLE. THE FIRST IS THAT
SEVERAL MODELS HAVE PUSHED BACK THE FRONTAL TIMING A FULL 6 HOURS SO
WE NOW EXPECT PRECIP TO MAINLY STAY ALL RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
WHAT HASN'T CHANGED IS THE THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
MID LEVEL WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE (WARM NOSE) THIS HAS LED
TO OUR CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN AN ALL ICE EVENT RATHER THAN A SNOW
EVENT. AS SUCH WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE ALL OF OUR WINTER STORM
WATCH TO A WARNING AFTER COORDINATING WITH OTHER LOCAL OFFICES. THE
WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY. IT'S AT
THIS TIMEFRAME WHEN WE EXPECT TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. LASTLY, WE ARE NOW EXPECTING A DECENT SWATH
OF RAINFALL PRIOR TO THE TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN WITH MANY
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SEEING TOTALS ANYWHERE
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAN EXPECT TO SEE
UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL.
THE LONG ADVERTISED STRONG ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK ALBEIT IT
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO IMPACT TX WHILE AT THE SAME TIME STRONG MOISTURE
FROM A CUTOFF LOW THAT REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE BAJA CALI AREA
SHOULD INTERSECT THIS COLDER AIR. BECAUSE OF THIS COMBINATION WE ARE
STILL EXPECTING OUR AREA TO SEE NOT ONLY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BUT ALSO A SOMEWHAT WINTRY MESS OF A SYSTEM ACROSS MOST OF
TX. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT WARM TOO MUCH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS STRONG CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT PUSHES IN
BEHIND. GLOBAL MODELS AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO DIFFER ON THE
EXACT TIMING WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THESE KIND OF FRONTS. HOWEVER
DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING AS
MODELS TEND TO LATCH ON TO THE COLDER AIR COMING IN FASTER LATER
RATHER THAN SOONER. REGARDLESS, MANY AREAS IN THE HILL COUNTRY WILL
LIKELY SEE THERE HIGHS EARLIER IN THE DAY BEFORE DROPPING AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THIS OCCURS STRONG ISENTROPIC FLOW WILL OVERRIDE
THE SHALLOW COOL AIR THUS BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THIS ARCTIC FRONT MOVING
ACROSS OUR AREA STARTING FROM THE NORTH UP INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS.
SINCE THERE IS QUITE A LOT TO TALK ABOUT WE ARE GOING TO BREAK THIS
AFD DOWN INTO SEVERAL SECTIONS MUCH LIKE WE DID YESTERDAY.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION... CONFIDENCE LEVEL MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES INCREASING WITH PRECIP CHANCES NOW IN THE HIGH
TO VERY HIGH (80-95%) RANGE FOR OUR AREA SEEING SOME FORM OF
PRECIPITATION. CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
INCREASED AS WELL ESPECIALLY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN I-35
CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. AS SUCH AND AS ALLUDED TO
AT THE OUTSET WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED ALL OF OUR WINTER
STORM WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A VAL VERDE TO SAN MARCOS TO LA GRANGE AREA. THESE AREAS
CAN EXPECT TO SEE FREEZING RAIN AS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP WITH A
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND OR SNOW LATER ON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH MOST AREAS
PICKING UP A LIGHT DUSTING TO 0.2 OF AN INCH WHEN ALL IS SAID AND
DONE.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME
CONTINUES TO BE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH SNOW LESS LIKELY DUE TO
THE ANOMALOUS LARGE LAYER OF WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT ABOVE THE FREEZING
MID LEVELS THAT RESIDES OVER THE SUB FREEZING SURFACE TO LOWER
LEVELS (WARM NOSE). AS STATED YESTERDAY, WE WOULD NEED THE
SOUNDING PROFILE TO COOL SUBSTANTIALLY TO SEE A MAINLY ALL SNOW
EVENT. WHICH AT THIS POINT LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY UNTIL WE SEE WRAP
AROUND CAA AND SNOW FLURRIES AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA
AND THERMAL PROFILES AT THAT POINT ARE COLDER THROUGHOUT. SPEAKING
OF PRECIP WE LOOK TO START OUT INITIALLY AS PLAIN OLD RAIN WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEFORE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND OR SLEET AS STRONG CAA CONTINUES
TO FUNNEL IN UNDERCUTTING THE RAIN/ THUNDERSTORMS WHILE TEMPS
CONTINUE TO FALL. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND EVEN SOME EARLY RUN
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AND SHOW THIS WELL WITH MANY
SUGGESTING THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN I-35 CORRIDOR CONTINUING
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WHICH
INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. CHANCES DECREASE CONSIDERABLY AS
MORE WARM AIR REMAINS THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE TRAVELS THROUGH THE
CWA LEADING TO MAINLY ALL RAIN TYPE EVENT THERE WITH POSSIBLY A
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. REGARDING PRECIP
AMOUNTS, ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH OF ICE ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. HOWEVER, AS MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALLUDED TO WE COULD SEE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.
WE ARE SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENT ON TIMING WITH AREAS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY SEEING THE RAIN CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNED AREA CAN EXPECT A
CHANGEOVER SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OR EVENING. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ACTUAL TIMEFRAME WHEN THIS
CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR BUT OVERALL MOST AREAS IN THE WINTER STORM
WARNING SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN BY SATURDAY
EVENING. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE WE JUST DON'T HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR EXPANDING ANY WINTRY PRODUCTS JUST YET. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER MODEL DATA THROUGHOUT THIS EVENINGS FORECAST
TO DECIDE IF WE WANT TO EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
HOWEVER DOES NOT MEAN THESE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WON'T EXPERIENCE OR
SEE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS... CONFIDENCE LEVEL HIGH TO
VERY HIGH
THIS PART WE HAVE FAR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO COME IN COLDER AND AS IS TYPICAL FOR THESE ARCTIC OUTBREAKS WE
HAVE ADJUSTED SATURDAY'S HIGHS LOWER AS WELL WITH MANY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A U.S 90 TO I-35 LINE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 30S. A
AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE CAN STILL EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S WITH TEMPS REMAINING WARMER THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WINTRY PRECIP HELP TO TAME TEMPS DURING
THE DAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS FUNNEL IN THIS POLAR AIR WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS ALREADY LIKELY AS WE APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT,
EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO GET DANGEROUSLY COLD WITH MANY SEEING WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND CLOSE TO ZERO INCLUDING THE AUSTIN
METRO AREA AND THE HILL COUNTRY WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE
THERE. THOSE FURTHER SOUTH MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT STILL VERY
COLD WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS INCLUDING
THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA. WE HAVE NOT UPGRADED OUR EXTREME COLD
WATCH YET AS ITS STILL OVER 48 HOURS OUT HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKELY
THAT THIS WILL BE UPGRADED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. AS WE COULD
SEE AN EVEN COLDER SURGE OF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS FAR AS ACTUAL AIR TEMPS GO, WE COULD SEE RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE FOR
ALL CLIMATE SITES FOR SUNDAY AND EVEN MONDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA RIGHT AROUND FREEZING WITH WARMER TEMPS
(IN THE 40S) ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SIMILAR AIR TEMPS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS
ALBEIT A TOUCH WARMER FOR MONDAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS MODERATE A BIT REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S BY TUESDAY AND LOW TO UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS CLOSE
TO FREEZING BOTH NIGHTS HOWEVER TEMPS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS
WHAT WE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE OVER THIS WEEKEND.
ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE IS THAT SOME AREAS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME (GREATER THAN 48 HRS). THE MOST
LIKELY TIMEFRAME WOULD BE FROM 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL NOON
MONDAY. THIS BECOMES EVEN MORE LIKELY IF AREAS TO OUR NORTH RECEIVE
A FRESH SNOW PACK. WHICH THIS COULD ALLOW EVEN COLDER AIR TO FUNNEL
INTO OUR REGION THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. BOTTOM LINE FOR
TEMPERATURES IS THIS: IT WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD. NOW IS THE TIME
TO PREPARE BY PROTECTING THE FOUR P'S: PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS, AND
PIPES. PLEASE CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED AS THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A FEW
DAYS AWAY AND FORECAST DETAILS CAN AND LIKELY COULD CHANGE AS WE
GET CLOSER AND THE FINER DETAILS GET IRONED OUT AS MORE HI RES
MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO COME IN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY RETURN AROUND MIDNIGHT. CIGS
WILL INITIALLY BE LOW END MVFR, BUT QUICKLY FALL INTO IFR BETWEEN
08-09Z. IN ADDITION, WE SHOULD SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL DROP
VSBYS DOWN INTO THE 1-3SM RANGE AROUND SUNRISE. WE COULD EVEN SEE
SOME LIFR ALONG THE I-35 FROM SUNRISE INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
JAN 25 JAN 26
AUSTIN BERGSTROM 19 (2014) 24 (2011)
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 20 (1940/1926)20 (1904)
SAN ANTONIO INTL 16 (1894) 20 (1897)
DEL RIO 22 (1963) 27 (1966/1920)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 56 65 37 38 / 20 50 90 100
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 56 66 39 39 / 20 50 90 100
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 56 68 42 44 / 10 40 90 90
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 60 32 33 / 20 50 90 90
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 53 68 44 45 / 0 30 70 70
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 54 61 34 34 / 20 50 90 90
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 71 46 48 / 10 40 80 80
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 56 68 41 42 / 10 50 90 90
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 58 68 48 50 / 10 40 80 90
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 58 70 43 45 / 10 40 90 90
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 59 72 48 50 / 0 40 90 90
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
TXZ171>173-183>194-206-208-209.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...PLATT
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