043
FXUS64 KEWX 132319
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MEDIUM
TO HIGH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
- MONITORING ANY LINGERING SPIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEXICO
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AND A DISTURBANCE
OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAT COULD
CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH ELEVATED HEAT INDICES
THIS WEEKEND AND DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A FEW BRIEF LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OCCURRED THIS
MORNING BUT THEY WERE LESS PREVALENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE
MORNING DEW POINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE SLIGHTLY
LOWER. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER INFLUENCE OF
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEARING
THE TAMAULIPAS COAST, MOVED THROUGH THE CORPUS CHRISTI REGION. THIS
BOUNDARY IS THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
WILL BE THE SOURCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES ENTERING THE EARLY
EVENING AND SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAY AGAIN
SEE SOME BRIEF LIGHT STEAMER SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES, OTHERWISE THE
USUAL OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING INLAND INTO
MEXICO WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90 TO 99 PERCENTILE RANGE. THIS
PROMOTES BETTER COVERAGE (40-60%) FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM
THE AFTERNOON ONWARD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY HEAVIER STORMS COULD BE
ABLE TO PRODUCE EFFICIENT TROPICAL DOWNPOURS WITH A QUICK INCH OR
MORE, OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. AN ISOLATED
FLOODING INSTANCE COULD BE POSSIBLE AND WPC HIGHLIGHTS THE ENTIRETY
OF THE REGION WITHIN A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS MAINTAIN WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST WITH HIGHER HEAT INDICES. THE
HEAT INDICES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR PEAK
IN THE 102 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO THE BE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD DURING
THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS A LATE SEASON FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO OUR
REGION. WE WILL BE RICH WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALLUDED TO IN THE SHORT TERM MEANDERS INLAND
ACROSS MEXICO. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE FAVORING
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AVERAGE RAINFALL MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION WILL RUN FROM ABOUT 0.75 TO NEAR
THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS RUNNING GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10/US HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED HIGHER
BULLSEYE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 84 HR RRFS AND REFS GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD LEND INTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF INTO LOCAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. WPC HIGHLIGHTS
LEVEL 1 TO 2 RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS A RESULT. IF ADDITIONAL
SHORT TERM HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE TRICKLES IN WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO WITH SIMILAR OUTPUT AS THE RRFS/REFS, THEN A FLOOD
WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. BEYOND THIS
RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD, THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, RAIN-COOLED AIR, AND THE
MODEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS DON'T BUDGE MUCH AND REMAIN VERY HUMID.
THE RAIN CHANCES SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTWARD PRIMARILY TOWARD AND INTO
THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SOME LEFTOVER VORTICITY WITH THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS MEXICO REMAINS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. MAJORITY OF
THE GUIDANCE GRADUALLY LIFTS THE LEFTOVER SPIN OF THIS DISTURBANCE
NORTHEASTWARD, PERHAPS PARALLELING NEAR OR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
THIS WOULD KEEP RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IF THE LEFTOVER SPIN
ADVANCES FARTHER INLAND AND MORE ON A NORTHERLY PROGRESSION THAN A
NORTHEASTERLY ONE, THEN RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WOULD SPIKE ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH MORE CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING.
ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST THAT A NUMBER OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO PICK UP WOULD BE A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THAT
COULD MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, HELPING TO GENERATE THE POTENTIAL OF MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE PROSPECT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY'S DISCUSSION
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME HAS LOWERED SLIGHTLY AS THE
RESULT OF WEAKER 700 AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
DISTURBANCES MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER, WITH THAT SAID, IT STILL
REMAINS HOT AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES IN
PLACES, ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE CHANCES FOR THE ISSUANCE OF HEAT PRODUCTS MAY
HAVE LOWERED FROM YESTERDAY'S FORECAST, CONTINUE TO PRACTICE AND
PROMOTE HEAT SAFETY!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BUT THEN
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. GUSTS FROM 20-25 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH 02Z AT I-35 TERMINALS AND LINGER THROUGH 06Z ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. CEILINGS WILL MAINLY BE MVFR AS THEY REDEVELOP TONIGHT,
THOUGH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. CEILINGS RETURN TO
VFR BETWEEN 15-17Z. A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TOMORROW
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT I-35 TERMINALS BUT TIMING MAY NEED TO BE
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 93 76 86 / 10 50 50 90
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 92 75 86 / 10 50 50 90
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 91 75 86 / 10 60 50 90
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 91 73 82 / 10 30 70 90
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 79 96 77 89 / 0 0 40 80
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 92 73 83 / 10 40 70 90
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 91 76 87 / 10 30 50 90
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 91 75 86 / 10 60 60 90
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 78 92 77 86 / 10 60 50 90
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 91 76 86 / 10 50 50 90
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 91 76 87 / 10 50 50 90
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...27
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