873
FXUS64 KEWX 062306
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
606 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
AN H5 RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST ACROSS NM, WITH WEAK
NW FLOW ALOFT OVERHEAD. A SFC HIGH CENTER WAS ANALYZED OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF TX AS OF 18Z, WITH WEAK SFC FLOW LOCALLY THAT IS MAINLY
OUT OF THE NE AROUND THIS HIGH BUT SOMEWHAT VARIABLE. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONGOING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, DRIFTING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT A QUICK 1-1.5" OF
RAIN COULD IMPACT A SPOT OR TWO. NO FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED,
BUT HIGH RAINFALL RATES MAY LEAD TO BRIEFLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. ENJOY THE SEASONALLY COOL HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80S TO NEAR
90 TODAY WHILE YOU CAN, BECAUSE MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY...
TODAY'S SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 8-
9PM AREAWIDE. THE RIDGE AXIS IS LIKELY TO DRIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. WEDNESDAY
HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 1-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. IT'LL BE ANOTHER
DAY WITH ISOLATED PM SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF OUR REGION, WITH COVERAGE PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.
CONFIDENCE THEN LOWERS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS FOR TOMORROW EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MODELS, I.E. 12Z NAM, DEPICT A "RING-
OF-FIRE" LIKE AREA OF STORMS CONVECTIVELY ENHANCING A SHORTWAVE AND
MOVING INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
SOME CAMS DEPICT THIS ACTIVITY LATER OVERNIGHT AND FURTHER TO THE
EAST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. MEANWHILE, OTHER MODELS KEEP US HIGH AND
DRY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW, GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE, HAVE GONE
WITH A 10% CHANCE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION AND 20% IN VAL VERDE COUNTY, BUT WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW, THE DAY 2 SPC
OUTLOOK HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR VAL VERDE AND FAR WESTERN EDWARDS
COUNTIES, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE EXPANDED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NEAR AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING COULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF A
STORM COMPLEX SPORADICALLY ACROSS THE STATE. SOME LOW END POPS ARE TO
MAINTAIN WITHIN THE FORECAST FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY OF THESE
COMPLEXES REACHING INTO AND ACROSS OUR CWA. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL OF A
COMPLEX SHOWS UP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENINGS REMAIN IN PLAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES ARE
TO WARM AS WELL WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH THE RECENT INCREASE IN SOIL MOISTURE, I THINK
WE AVOID THE TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW. EXPECT FOR
PEAK HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB INTO THE 100 DEGREE RANGE WITH VALUES OF
NEAR 105 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS MEXICO INTO TEXAS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS BRINGS OUR HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR AND WHILE RAIN CHANCES DROP OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY,
LOOKS TO FLIRT CLOSE WITH THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR PORTIONS OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR BUT WE WILL SEE IF THIS CAN VERIFY WITH THE RECENT SOIL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE, ELEVATED DEW POINTS
COULD ALLOW FOR PEAK HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB TOWARDS THE 105 TO 110
DEGREE RANGE. WE'LL MONITOR CLOSELY AS HEADLINES COULD BE EVENTUALLY
NEEDED BUT IT'S CERTAINTY TIME TO PROMOTE/PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE CENTER OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NEAR AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. OCCASIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING COULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF A
STORM COMPLEX SPORADICALLY ACROSS THE STATE. SOME LOW END POPS ARE TO
MAINTAIN WITHIN THE FORECAST FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY OF THESE
COMPLEXES REACHING INTO AND ACROSS OUR CWA. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL OF A
COMPLEX SHOWS UP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENINGS REMAIN IN PLAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES ARE
TO WARM AS WELL WHERE AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH THE RECENT INCREASE IN SOIL MOISTURE, I THINK
WE AVOID THE TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW. EXPECT FOR
PEAK HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB INTO THE 100 DEGREE RANGE WITH VALUES OF
NEAR 105 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS MEXICO INTO TEXAS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS BRINGS OUR HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS YEAR AND WHILE RAIN CHANCES DROP OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY,
LOOKS TO FLIRT CLOSE WITH THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR PORTIONS OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR BUT WE WILL SEE IF THIS CAN VERIFY WITH THE RECENT SOIL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE, ELEVATED DEW POINTS
COULD ALLOW FOR PEAK HEAT INDICES TO CLIMB TOWARDS THE 105 TO 110
DEGREE RANGE. WE'LL MONITOR CLOSELY AS HEADLINES COULD BE EVENTUALLY
NEEDED BUT IT'S CERTAINTY TIME TO PROMOTE/PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY WANED AROUND THE TAF SITES, ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SHOWER IS JUST WEST OF AUS. OTHERWISE, THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME MVFR
VIS AROUND SUNRISE FOR THE I35 SITES. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW WILL BE
ABOUT 20 PERCENT AND IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 69 91 69 94 / 10 20 0 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 90 66 93 / 10 20 0 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 89 67 92 / 10 20 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 88 67 91 / 10 20 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 95 73 97 / 0 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 89 66 93 / 10 20 0 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 89 68 93 / 0 10 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 89 67 92 / 10 20 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 87 70 91 / 10 20 0 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 88 70 92 / 10 20 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 89 70 93 / 10 20 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...QUIGLEY
LONG-TERM...BRADY
AVIATION...29
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