695
FXUS64 KEWX 251059
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
559 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 554 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- DRIER, WITH SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MAY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
OUR STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWED A 500MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TX
AND A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THERE TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE FLOW OVER TX WAS ANTICYCLONIC, BUT A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN IN THE REGION PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST AND IS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY IS REALLY NOT HAVING ANY
AFFECT ON THE WEATHER. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA IS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST KEEPING A WARM (HOT), MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TODAY AND
SATURDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER HIGH WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION
KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND WILL HAVE SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BOTH DAYS. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN ABOUT
THE SAME WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STAGNANT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL LIKE AN ENDLESS SUMMER RATHER THAN THE START
OF FALL. TUESDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FIRST REAL PACIFIC COLD
FRONT OF THE SEASON MOVING INTO TX. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN STARTING TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ON WHEN
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND ARE EXTENDING RAIN CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER, DRIER
AIR. MODEL FORECAST HAS TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT, BUT
TEMPERATURES MAY GET DOWN TO AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
LIGHT WINDS HAVE CURBED THE FORMATION OF LOW CIGS FROM SAT/SSF/DRT
AREAS, WHILE THERE ARE ISOLATED POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS EVEN IN THE
AUSTIN METRO AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SOME LATE MORNING PREVAILING CIGS
AT DRT AND KEEP THE SAT/SSF AREAS AS TEMPO WHILE NOT MENTIONING
ANY LOW CIGS FOR AUS. TOMORROW SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
ONSHORE WIND FLOW, EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE DEEPER FLOW ON ONSHORE WINDS COULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK OF
MVFR CIGS SATURDAY MORNING AS COMPARED WITH TODAY. NO CONVECTION
AREAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIODS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 72 97 73 / 0 0 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 98 72 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 97 71 95 71 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 94 69 93 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 96 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 96 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 95 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 98 71 96 71 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 98 70 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 95 75 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 96 74 95 74 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...18
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