514
FXUS64 KEWX 130507
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1207 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN FREE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDICES THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY, AND IT
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER TX AND LOSE SOME OF THE AMPLITUDE BY THURSDAY.
RETURN FLOW WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE JUST BEGUN AND WILL BE A SLOW
PROGRESSION WITH THE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NW. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SOMEWHAT PLEASANT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOW
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT THROUGH NOON, BUT BY MIDDAY THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN UP WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TOWARD TX. ONCE AGAIN, FEW LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS MORNING. NAM TIME SECTIONS OVER CENTRAL
TX CONTINUE TO SHOW A NORTHERLY WIND FUNNELING DRY MID LEVEL AIR TO
MIX IN WITH THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE OUT
WEST, PLATEAU AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS INFUSED INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WINDS THAT WILL BE PUSHING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. SO WE
COULD SEE A HEALTHY JUMP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY,
BUT ONLY SLOW DAILY PROGRESS OF DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AS THE
DAYTIME MIXING AIRS OUT ANY MORNING PROGRESS FROM THE LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT PLEASANT EVENING COULD RESULT AFTER WARM
HIGHS MOSTLY UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THE MORE MATURE SOUTHERLY ONSHORE
WINDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
MORNING STRATUS TONIGHT, BUT PROBABLY NOT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY'S HIGHS COULD TAKE ANOTHER STEP WARMER FROM THOSE TODAY,
BUT THE DAMPENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE ABOVE AVERAGE VEGETATION
MOISTURE COULD MEAN ONLY SOME MAXT GAINS OF A DEGREE OR TWO BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
FRIDAY MORNING COULD SEE MORE AREAS WITH MORNING STRATUS AND A
CONTINUED SLOW SURGE IN TEMPERATURES, BUT BY THIS TIME, ALSO A BUMP
IN HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDEX. FALLING HEIGHTS AND A WEAK DEVELOPING
LOW OVER THE SW CONUS SHOULD FURTHER TIGHTEN THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER TX AND LEADING TO A GUSTIER AFTERNOON. DRY AIR MIXING
FROM ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DEW POINTS IN CHECK, BUT THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A MODEST RISE IN THE HEAT
INDEX. STILL THE AMBIENT WARMTH FOR FRIDAY IS THE GREATER GAIN AND
HIGHS ARE DEPICTED TO RANGE FROM UPPER 80S TO MID 90S BY THEN. LIGHT
RIDGING AND LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND IN A
GRADUAL TREND OF SLOW WARMING AND SLOW INCREASES IN RH/HEAT INDEX.
THE WEEKEND MORNINGS WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MUGGY AND SLIGHTLY
UNCOMFORTABLE WHILE THE AFTERNOON HEAT LEVELS OFF ON TEMPERATURES AT
THE EXPENSE OF CLIMBING HI VALUES. BY SUNDAY, A FEW 100 DEGREE HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD REACH THE METRO CITIES. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL
WEST OF TX AND THERE COULD BE A STRAY DRY-LINE STORM OR BURRO
MOUNTAIN STORM, THIS WEEKEND, BUT IT ONLY LOOKS CONSIDERABLE ENOUGH
FOR MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CAPPING COULD LIMIT
COVERAGE WITH THE WESTERN AREAS GETTING THE BEST CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER SW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN DEEPENS AND EXPANDS
EAST ACROSS TX MONDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY, FOR GOOD STORM CHANCE
DAYS, WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY FLATTER PATTERN FOR MORE ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH THE PATTERN BEING A VAGUE
SW FLOW ALOFT TYPE, IT WILL TAKE A FEW DAYS FOR US TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORM SEVERITY, PRECIP AMOUNTS OR STORM TIMING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY, THEN HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT I-35 TERMINALS, SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WIND REMAINS LIGHT UNDER 8 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
FURTHER WEST AT KDRT, SOUTHEASTERLY WIND PERSISTS INCREASING UP TO
12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN BECOMES RELATIVELY LIGHT
AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 67 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 64 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 68 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 66 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 89 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 64 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 91 66 92 68 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...27
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