338
FXUS64 KEWX 222305
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
605 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 556 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
- WARM TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES (20 TO
35%) EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AND LOW RAIN CHANCES
(20% AND LESS) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
OVERALL, WEATHER SHOULD BE WARM BUT PLEASANT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE
IS A LOW (LESS THAN 10%) CHANCE THAT THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS COULD SEE
SOME SPRINKLES AND A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
COASTAL TROUGHING CAUSING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS IS ALSO CAUSING SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE DEL RIO
AREA SURROUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, CLEARING UP SOMEWHAT LATER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AREAS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD SEE CLEARER
SKIES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
DUE TO INCREASED SUBSIDENCE, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT, REACHING THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. TOMORROW'S LOWS SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO
MID-60S. LOWER DEWPOINTS FROM THE SINKING AIR SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS DRIER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WHICH DOESN'T APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER, A WEAKER COLD FRONT MAY STALL TO THE NORTH OR NEAR THE.
CWA. THIS TROUGH, DESPITE NOT BEING VERY STRONG, IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO EFFECTIVELY BREAK DOWN HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND PUSH
IT EASTWARD, CREATING SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND DRAWING
INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR
CENTRAL TEXAS TO AROUND 20 TO 35% AS INCREASED GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES
INTO TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES COULD TREND HIGHER OR LOWER FOR THIS
DAY DEPENDING ON THE BEHAVIOR OF ANY COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM (IF ONE STALLS IN THE VICINITY OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION,
RAIN CHANCES COULD TREND A LITTLE HIGHER). CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A
BIT UNSETTLED FOR A FEW DAYS AS A WEAK SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH. RESULTANTLY, LOW RAIN
CHANCES (20% AND LESS) PREVAIL IN THE AFTERNOONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS WELL, WITH THE BETTER CHANCE BEING ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH DAY. LOWS WILL BE COOL EACH NIGHT, GETTING
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EACH NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE OVERALL EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PRIMARILY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
PRESENCE OF FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WOULD BE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TREND FROM
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THESE BASES COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AT KDRT AFTER SUNRISE BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. CONDITIONS
THEN RETURN TO VFR LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WINDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE I-35 TERMINALS (KAUS, KSAT,
AND KSSF) SUBSIDE INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS COULD
BECOME VARIABLE AND OF NEAR CALM LEVELS. WINDS THEN PICKUP DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BUT OF 10 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS TREND SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE, AND KDRT,
WHERE GUSTS COULD PEAK AROUND OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN 20 KTS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 60 87 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 56 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 59 86 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 58 83 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 64 85 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 57 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 59 87 62 85 / 0 0 0 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 57 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 56 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 85 63 85 / 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 87 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...62
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