312
FXUS64 KEWX 052333
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) RAIN/STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
TO END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY AS OUR WARMING TREND CONTINUES. ADDITIONALLY,
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA HELPING TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON ONCE MIXING ENSUES. A DRYLINE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF VAL VERDE COUNTY AND STRETCHES
NORTH UP INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM TO FIRE AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS THIS LATE
THIS EVENING. HI-RES MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS WITH SEVERAL
SHOWING CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY AND MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PERHAPS
REACHING THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME SEEMS
TO OCCUR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PRE
DAWN HOURS. TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY MILD AS MANY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS CLOUDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AND
BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, WITH RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METRO.
BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH MOST TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
EAST THE ISOLATED STORMS MAKE IT OVERNIGHT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND LONGER ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN AREAS. WE COULD SEE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DRYLINE PROGRESSES ALL THE WAY TO THE THE I-35
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY AS CAPPING
ONCE AGAIN TAKES HOLD. BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING MANY AREAS COULD
SEE SOMEWHAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR STORMS AS A COLD FRONT COMES
IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE DRYLINE. THIS SHOULD GIVE BETTER
FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
BEHIND THIS FRONT TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
LOW 70S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
DETAILS BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THIS IS
DUE LARGELY IN PART TO WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
WESTERN TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
GLOBAL MODELS EACH HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH THE EURO
CONTINUING TO SHOW A CUT OFF LOW OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AS IT MOVES
ACROSS OUR AREA. THOUGH THE LATEST RUN HAS THE WAVE OPENING UP LATER
WHICH TENDS TO LEAN TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEPS THE LOW IN TACT AND SPREADS PIECES OF ENERGY TOWARDS OUR AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THIS LOW FINALLY MOVES ACROSS TX. THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR MORE PROLONGED PERIODS OF RAIN WHEREAS THE EURO
WOULD BE A MORE QUICK HITTING RAIN EVENT AND THUS LEAVING THE
WEEKEND DRY. FOR WEEKEND PURPOSES, IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY
THEN WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS WE GET CLOSER. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK AS DETAILS AND RAIN
CHANCES HOPEFULLY BECOME CLEARER IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
ALL TERMINALS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AUSTIN AND
SAN ANTONIO AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CLOSER TO SUNRISE AT DRT.
CEILINGS WILL START AT MVFR AND DROP TO IFR IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO. CEILINGS WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AT DRT
AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 87 61 71 / 10 30 20 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 73 85 62 72 / 10 20 20 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 61 73 / 0 20 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 68 84 57 69 / 20 30 20 40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 93 66 76 / 20 0 30 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 83 60 71 / 10 30 20 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 65 74 / 10 10 20 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 86 62 72 / 0 20 20 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 86 64 74 / 0 30 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 87 64 74 / 0 10 20 40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 87 66 74 / 0 10 20 40
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...05
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