603
FXUS64 KEWX 131118
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
518 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY.
- RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF
I-35/I-37 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MIDDAY SUNDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY HANGS AROUND TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS TX. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MORNING CLOUDS, MAYBE SOME POCKETS OF FOG TO
START THE DAY, BUT ALSO AS SEEN THURSDAY, PLENTY OF MIXING AND
AFTERNOON SUN TO KEEP THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ROLLING.
TONIGHT, THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS BY THEN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE WEST TX CONVECTION. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO TO MAKE IT INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY,
PROBABLY BY 03Z OR LATER. A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) SITS OVER VAL
VERDE COUNTY THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE STILL DISTANCED ENOUGH TO NOT PROMOTE
AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF STORMS INTO OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT,
BUT THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE PLENTY OF INBOUND FLOW FETCHING GULF
MOISTURE IN TOWARDS THE UPPER TROUGH. MODELS WHETHER DETERMINISTIC
OR ENSEMBLE HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN GENERATING OVERNIGHT
FEEDER SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX, WHERE THE ESCARPMENT
AND I-37/I-10 CORRIDORS HAVE THE MOST OVERNIGHT ACTION.
THEN ON SATURDAY THE DYNAMICS ARE IN POSITION TO SET OF SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION, DISORGANIZED AND MAINLY OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
EARLY ON, THEN EXPANDING SOUTHWARD TO MORE AREAS AS THE DAY GOES ON.
MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS FAVOR AN UPTICK OF RAIN AS COMPARED TO THE
MULTI-RUN BLENDS AND ENSEMBLES, ALTHOUGH THE POPULATE SCHEME WAS TOO
HIGH ALREADY AS IT USUALLY IS FOR A MULTI-PERIOD STORM EVENT. THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GFS AND NAM RUNS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AS IT IMPACTS CENTRAL TX, AND THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY AMPLIFY BOTH SEVERE POTENTIAL AND RAINFALL POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO HIGHWAY 90 WHICH WERE SORT OF FROWNED
UPON BY THE LR ENSEMBLES FOR QPF. SO PERHAPS THAT MEANS A FEW MORE
AREAS AROUND SAN ANTONIO GET OVER HALF AN INCH AND MORE AREAS AROUND
AUSTIN GET AMOUNTS CLOSER TO AN INCH.
HOWEVER, OUT WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IT'S PROBABLY LIKELY MANY
AREAS WILL FAIL TO SEE A WETTING RAIN, AND FOLLOWING A MID AFTERNOON
WIND SHIFTS, THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME AREAS OF NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS NOTED IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
WITH SIGNS IN RECENT MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE
MID-LEVEL SECTION OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TX, IT NOW LOOKS MORE
LIKELY MANY AREAS COULD BE IMPACTED BY ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE
AREAS THAT GOT WETTING RAIN MAY NOT BENEFIT AS MUCH AS PRETTY MUCH
ALL AREAS STILL HAVE CURED GRASSES. THE STORY GOING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED IS LED BY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE 7 DAY
FORECAST.
A QUICK RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER TX LATE SUNDAY AND THEN THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMES MORE FLAT BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT THE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE, AND THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY AND PERHAPS MORE GUSTY THAN THEY WERE UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE THAT'S CURRENTLY BEING NUDGED EAST OF TX. WILL HAVE TO PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION EACH DAY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS AS MOST
AREAS REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
A MIX OF VLIFR TO VFR FLYING WITH THE POOREST CONDITIONS AT KAUS
WILL LIFT TO ALL VFR THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
RETURN TONIGHT AS SHRA DEVELOPS. S TO SE WINDS UP TO 8 KTS
INCREASE TO 8 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
A MOSTLY DRY PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE BY MID AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LEADING TO ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BREEZY AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE SUNDAY, WITH MORE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE SAME AREAS, GENERALLY WEST OF I-35
AND I-37. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, SO ADDITIONAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAYS COULD BE
POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 64 75 55 / 0 30 90 30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 62 75 55 / 0 30 90 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 80 62 75 54 / 0 30 70 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 61 73 53 / 0 40 90 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 64 82 55 / 0 20 30 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 62 73 55 / 0 30 90 30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 60 79 53 / 0 30 50 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 62 76 54 / 0 30 80 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 64 76 56 / 0 20 90 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 64 76 56 / 0 30 70 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 82 64 78 56 / 0 30 60 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...04
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