317
FXUS64 KEWX 011805
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
105 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER OUR AREA BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN AND SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS WE COULD STILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP OFF OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO TO THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90, WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH MOST TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 90S BEFORE THE DAY ENDS. FOR TONIGHT IT WILL REMAIN
MILD WITH MOST STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AS CLOUDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A
WARM AND HUMID EVENING.
A DRYLINE WILL BE STATIONED OFF TO OUR WEST IN WEST TX AND WILL TRY
TO MAKE PROGRESS WESTWARD EACH DAY WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY
FORMING ALONG IT. SIMULTANEOUSLY AN INVERTED TROUGH LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY WESTWARD INTO OUR
AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AS PWATS RISE ABOVE 1.5 INCHES,
SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE OFF WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. OUR EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WOULD HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING STORMS IF THEY FORM. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION HOWEVER MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET LEADING TO ANOTHER WARM AND MOIST
OVERNIGHT WITH MANY REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT REARS ITS HEAD ONCE AGAIN. ALLOWING MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
CROSS OVER OUR AREA BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER,
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS OUR RECENT EVENTS HAVE BEEN. WE COULD SEE THIS PATTERN
REMAINING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE A LOW LOCATED OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN TX OVER THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO, WE SHOULD
SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TO INCREASE. SEVERAL
MODEL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST PWATS INCREASING TO 1.8 TO PERHAPS 2.00
INCHES+ MEANING ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. WHILE THE WEEKEND DOESNT LOOK LIKE
A COMPLETE WASHOUT, IT IS TRENDING WETTER AS MORE MODEL RUNS COME
IN. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THESE PATTERNS ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN REGARDING INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS AND AMOUNTS SO
FAR OUT IN TIME. WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE AND CLARITY ON
THIS AS WE GET CLOSER. STAY TUNED AND CHECK BACK TO THE FORECAST
OFTEN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS HAVE REBOUNDED TO VFR. THE
CEILING AT DRT HAS RISEN TO 030, BUT THEY SHOULD REACH VFR BEFORE
THE START OF THIS PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WE HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT,
BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ALL TERMINALS STAY VFR. WE SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY IN THE SAN ANTONIO AREA. ALL
AIRPORTS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND NOON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 93 74 89 / 0 10 20 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 93 74 89 / 0 10 20 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 73 91 72 88 / 10 10 20 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 90 71 86 / 0 20 20 50
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 95 75 93 / 0 0 30 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 72 88 / 0 20 20 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 90 72 88 / 0 0 10 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 92 72 89 / 10 10 20 40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 91 73 89 / 10 30 20 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 91 74 88 / 10 10 10 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 91 73 89 / 10 20 10 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...05
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