529
FXUS64 KEWX 302342
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. SOME COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND
FORECAST FOR THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SOME BREAKS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IS HELPING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF BURNET, BLANCO, AND SOON OVER TRAVIS COUNTIES AS
OF 1 PM CDT. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE ENHANCED AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES WITH MORE ACTIVITY EXPANDING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. MAIN HAZARDS ARE LARGE HAIL, STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. WE MAY HAVE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BUT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN OVER THE RIO GRANDE MID TO LATE EVENING
AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
SUPPORT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PUSHING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND THEN OVER OUR LOCAL AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
ON LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH 9 PM CDT FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST WITH ISOLATED 6 INCHES FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH. REMEMBER TO PROMOTE THE FOLLOWING:
STAY WEATHER AWARE AND AWAY FROM FLOODED AREAS. AS THE WAVE MOVES
TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING, RAIN CHANCES COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
BY SATURDAY MORNING, DRY AND COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE
AS A SURGE OF COOLER AIRMASS PUSHES FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN LOWS
AROUND THE MID 40S OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. SATURDAY'S HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY EVENING PUSHES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND BRINGS BACK A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE LOCAL AREA. WITH THE
RETURN FLOW IN PLACE, A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
THE WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SEVERAL FAST-MOVING CLUSTERS AND BANDS OF
TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE MOST NUMEROUS BETWEEN 09Z-21Z. THE 00Z
TAFS PROVIDE A GENERAL SKETCH OF THE MORE FAVORED PERIODS FOR TS,
BUT THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THAT THE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE.
ROUNDS OF MORE INTENSE TSRA MAY BE SEPARATED BY SHRA OR BR, WITH
BROAD LOWERING TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED TONIGHT. PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z-15Z AT ALL TAF SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE TAFS. PREVAILING WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS GUSTY NORTHEASTERLIES AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF, MAINLY AFTER 17Z
WITH PEAK GUSTS OCCURRING AROUND 00Z. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST GUSTS
OF ABOUT 28-33 KT ARE LIKELY. CIGS MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAY, ESPECIALLY FOLLOWING THE LAST ROUND OF STORMS IN THE MID- TO
LATE-AFTERNOON, WITH THE SLOWEST IMPROVEMENT AT KAUS AND VICINITY
COMPARED TO OTHER SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 60 63 53 74 / 90 90 20 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 61 64 51 73 / 90 100 20 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 61 66 52 74 / 90 100 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 56 60 50 71 / 90 100 20 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 73 54 74 / 90 90 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 59 61 50 72 / 90 100 20 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 66 50 72 / 90 90 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 61 65 52 73 / 90 100 20 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 67 53 73 / 90 100 30 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 63 66 52 73 / 90 90 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 64 67 54 73 / 90 90 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR TXZ171>173-183>194-
202>209-221-223.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...TRAN
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