038  
FXUS64 KEWX 141136  
AFDEWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX  
536 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2019  
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS  
BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15-18Z.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 316 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2019/  
 
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...  
A NICE WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SUNNY SKIES  
AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER. WHILE  
ONE TROUGH SURGES TOWARDS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE NEXT APPROACHES  
CALIFORNIA TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS SOUTH  
CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE AROUND  
TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON MARKING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.  
DESPITE THAT, DRY AIR ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU COULD MEAN A FEW  
ISOLATED SPOTS SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER, BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO  
NOT BE AS GUSTY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. WITH THE RETURN FLOW IN PLACE  
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY  
ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. DURING THE DAY ON  
SUNDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON A PATH  
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
 
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...  
THE TOUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TO  
BEGIN THE WORK WEEK MONDAY MORNING WITH GLOBAL MODELS IN DECENT  
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH  
ONLY ONE REAL DAY OF MOISTURE RETURN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT  
WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE BEST CHANCE WILL  
BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST, WITH  
DRYING AND CLEARING CONDITIONS FOLLOWING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SHOWERY IN NATURE, WITH LIMITED RAINFALL  
TOTALS. THE BIG CHANGE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE COOLER AIR BEHIND  
IT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO TEXAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE  
BE SEASONAL, BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE  
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN  
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S, WITH FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES  
EACH MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE  
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LIGHT FREEZE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT  
TROUGH. WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE NOW PICKING UP THE WEAK  
PACIFIC FRONT THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN CARRYING FOR SEVERAL RUNS THE  
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT ARE  
STILL IN QUESTION A WEEK OUT. BECAUSE OF THIS CONFIDENCE REMAINS  
FAIRLY LOW AND SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. IF  
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND INTO FURTHER AGREEMENT POPS MAY NEED TO BE  
BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 52 80 56 62 / 0 0 0 - 20  
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 50 82 57 64 / 0 0 0 - 20  
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 78 49 80 57 65 / 0 0 0 - 10  
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 51 81 49 58 / 0 0 0 0 -  
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 50 83 52 70 / 0 0 0 0 0  
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 50 80 52 59 / 0 0 0 - 10  
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 83 48 83 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 -  
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 49 81 57 65 / 0 0 0 - 20  
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 55 83 63 68 / 0 0 0 20 40  
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 79 51 80 57 67 / 0 0 0 0 10  
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 51 81 58 69 / 0 0 0 0 10  
 

 
   
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
AVIATION...HUFFMAN  
SHORT-TERM/LONG-TERM...TREADWAY  
 
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