148
FXUS64 KEWX 110604
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1204 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A FREEZE IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE HILL COUNTRY, SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR MOST AREAS.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
OBSERVATIONS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35, WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
DECREASING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE WE DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION, BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD
STILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE FREEZE WARNING FOR VAL VERDE AND KINNEY
COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE AS THESE COUNTIES HAVE YET TO SEE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS SEASON. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. A FAIRLY SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE ON MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK LIFT MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT
TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
NBM POPS LOOK A LITTLE LOW AND ARE CONFINED TOO FAR WEST WHEN
COMPARED WITH MODEL QPF OUTPUT FROM THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND
GFS. WHILE WE DON'T EXPECT TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ABOVE THE NBM OFFERING. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARMUP FOR
MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS TRENDING UPWARD INTO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. WE DO EXPECT TO SEE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE
MODEL RUNS FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY COLD FRONT DOES NOT
LINGER TOO LONG AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY,
BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY DROPS
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN AND CONSISTENT RUNS FROM THE ECMWF AI MODEL, WILL LIKELY
TREND TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN THE NBM TOWARD THE END OF CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WITH A LAYER AROUND FL250, THEN A LAYER AROUND
FL100 SPREADS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10
KTS OR LESS, BECOME VRBL 5 KTS OR LESS SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
DESPITE THE COOL MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR WILL ONLY PROMOTE
FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERY THIS MORNING, RANGING FROM NEAR 30 PERCENT
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TO NEAR 50 PERCENT IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. DRY
AIR REMAINS INTACT TODAY LEADING TO MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS OF NEAR 15 TO 25 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 5 TO NEAR 10 MPH RANGE FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. THE DRY AIR WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 41 62 44 / 0 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 39 61 42 / 0 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 62 41 61 43 / 0 0 0 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 61 37 61 41 / 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 61 43 60 45 / 0 20 20 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 36 62 42 / 0 0 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 63 41 61 43 / 0 0 0 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 64 39 62 43 / 0 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 63 40 62 43 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 44 61 46 / 0 0 0 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 44 61 46 / 0 0 0 20
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ183-202.
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM....PLATT
AVIATION...04
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