505
FXUS64 KEWX 132328
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
628 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 618 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
- HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, MAINLY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
- WINDY AND COOLER BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A DRY AND COOL WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WITH CONTINUED
DAYTIME HEATING, HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO PEAK IN THE LOWER TO
UPPER 90S TODAY. IN ADDITION, WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR. THIS REGION IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A
MOISTURE AXIS AS NOTED BY RECENT GOES BLENDED TPW PRODUCT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE AXIS WILL SLIDE WESTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY, AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
WHILE ANY CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, SOME LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF VAL VERDE COUNTY
AS MOISTURE FROM 'SIMON' STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WPC
MAINTAINS A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF VAL VERDE COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE 103-105 DEGREE RANGE ALONG I-35,
WITH NEAR 107 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. SOME RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE IN JEOPARDY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY, HIGHS WILL EASE BACK SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S TO MID
90S.
ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THE WPC DOES SHOW A LEVEL 2 OF 4
RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF VAL VERDE COUNTY, WITH A LEVEL
1 OF 4 RISK INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE MOIST AXIS OVER THE BIG BEND/NORTHERN
MEXICO.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD RATHER QUICKLY LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE CURRENT NBM ONLY
EXTENDS RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY, COULD SEE A
SCENARIO WHERE A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE LOW-
LEVEL FORCING ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
AND MAY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FARTHER EAST INTO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PLAINS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND A FEW SPOTS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HILL COUNTRY MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH
THE LOW END WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR ABOVE
26 MPH. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE IN STORE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE REGION ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER THE FORECAST LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS BEGINS
TO REESTABLISH, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN WITH LOW CLOUDS AFTER 05Z,
INITIALLY AFFECTING KAUS/KSAT/KSSF BEFORE REACHING KDRT AROUND 10Z.
HREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 40% LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CIGS, BUT STEADY
WINDS DURING THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY PREVENT CIGS FROM DROPPING
BELOW FL010. CIGS LIFT TO VFR BY ABOUT 17Z-18Z, WITH BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND GUSTS DEVELOPING. GLAMP AND NBM GUIDANCE
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WINDS ABOVE 15G25KT AT TIMES AFTER 21Z.
LATEST HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED TSRA NEAR KAUS, SO
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PROB30 FOR 21Z-00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 77 94 71 91 / 10 50 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 94 69 91 / 10 50 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 92 69 90 / 10 40 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 91 70 87 / 0 10 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 96 75 91 / 0 10 40 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 93 70 90 / 10 30 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 95 71 91 / 10 10 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 93 69 91 / 10 50 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 94 69 93 / 10 50 10 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 92 71 90 / 10 20 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 78 94 72 92 / 10 20 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM....PLATT
AVIATION...TRAN
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