730
FXUS64 KEWX 252351
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
651 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS (65 TO 85% FOR THOSE AREAS).
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF CIRRUS IS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE SHEARED OFF FROM HURRICANE
VANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDES THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN AN UPPER
RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THE MORE
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS DISPLACED TO OUR WEST AND
RELATIVELY STABLE AIR AT 0-3 KM IS STILL BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE
EAST, SO THE IMPACT OF THIS MOISTURE WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED TO
CLOUDS SLIGHTLY REDUCING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE EDWARDS PLATEAU MONDAY, BUT THERE WON'T BE MUCH DEEP-
LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH. A FEW OF THE HI-
RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND HRWS DEVELOP A BATCH OF SHOWERS
OVER MEXICO THAT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THEIR INTENSITY
LOW. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE MAY PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL STRAY SHOWER WITHIN
THE COASTAL PLAINS TO RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT MOST OTHER AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY.
HIGHS TODAY AND MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER AS
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA, MOST NOTICEABLY FOR THOSE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. HIGH CLOUDS WILL DAMPEN THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT, BUT RURAL PORTIONS OF THE AUSTIN AREA AND HILL
COUNTRY SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 50S, WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE. A LATE-ARRIVING INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY
NIGHT, WHICH SHOULD RESTORE MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
MIDWEEK MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RESPONDS
TO BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. WHILE THERE ISN'T A
DISTINCT DISTURBANCE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS MOISTURE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND NEUTRALLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT
AFFORDED BY THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US SUGGEST
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EMANATING FROM THE
COASTAL BEND. LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR RAIN EXTEND FROM THE COASTAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES (40-50%) SOUTH OF THE SAN ANTONIO AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, SHIFTING EASTWARD TO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. REGIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE RANGE OF A FEW TENTHS FROM THIS ACTIVITY,
THOUGH AN ISOLATED SPOT COULD FORSEEABLY PICK UP AN INCH FROM A
HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE LATER IN THE WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH
ARRIVING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY RESULTS IN MORE
MERIDIONAL FLOW IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS PATTERN IS WELL TIMED
TO SIPHON OFF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM HURRICANE VANCE,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO DECAY OFF THE PACIFIC MEXICAN COAST LATER THIS
WEEK. MODELED PWATS FROM THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE CLUSTERED
AROUND 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES, OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE
OCTOBER. THIS MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
PLUME AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND OTHERS MOVING INLAND AS FEEDER
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE COAST. THE LATEST MODELS HAVE SHOWN A
FOCUS FOR RAINFALL (BOTH IN LIKELIHOOD AND MAGNITUDE) MAINLY
STRETCHING FROM THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, ALIGNED WITH THE STRONGEST VAPOR TRANSPORT AND
POTENTIALLY LIMITED ON ITS EASTERN EXTENT BY SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
US. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AS THE MOISTURE ARRIVES, AND
THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE RAIN INTENSITY PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A 30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE, LIKELY BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE DIFFUSE AND SHIFTING NORTH
AND EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE PEAK RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST (65-
85%) ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, INCLUDING
THE DEL RIO AREA, AND DECREASE EASTWARD (TO ABOUT 20-40%) TOWARDS
THE COASTAL PLAINS. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT UPTICK IN MEAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU IN RECENT RUNS, CONSISTENT WITH THE FOCUSING OF MOISTURE
OVER THOSE AREAS. WHILE THE 15-25 KT DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP
INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS MOVING AT A STEADY CLIP, THE LONG CHANNEL OF
MOISTURE AND HIGH PWAT VALUES INDICATE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RECURRING
AND AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN. THE LATEST ECMWF EFI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THUS, WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON
A POTENTIAL ISOLATED FLOOD RISK MAINLY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AT PRESENT, THE MAIN RISK AREA IS WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR, EXTENDING TO THE RIO GRANDE.
THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD CYCLE PAST
OUR AREA BY SATURDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY REINVIGORATE
SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10 ON SATURDAY FOR A FINAL ROUND OF WET WEATHER,
BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SKIES CLEAR
SOME AS THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN BECOMES SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC, BUT THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROBABLY KEEP
CIRRUS STREAMING OVER THE AREA.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S, VARYING WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD TREND COOLER OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE IF THE RAIN SIGNAL CONTINUES TO BE
CONCENTRATED THERE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADILY IN THE
60S, SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH PRIMARILY ESE WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
AND VFR CEILINGS AT AUS, SAT, AND SSF. WINDS WILL DROP TO LESS
THAN 5 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AROUND
LUNCHTIME MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AT DRT, OPTED TO DROP MVFR TO LESS
THAN 2K FEET AND ADD IN -SHRA TO A FM GROUP BEYOND 19Z TOMORROW
HEDGING ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AT THE TERMINAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 58 83 63 82 / 0 0 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 84 62 82 / 0 0 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 83 63 82 / 0 0 10 40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 57 79 61 78 / 0 0 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 65 80 64 83 / 10 30 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 82 61 81 / 0 0 0 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 60 82 64 82 / 0 0 10 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 55 84 62 82 / 0 0 10 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 55 85 63 82 / 0 0 10 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 59 82 65 81 / 0 0 10 50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 83 66 82 / 0 0 10 50
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...MMM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page