015
FXUS64 KEWX 181051
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
551 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM MID-WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING
MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MOISTURE REMAINS STREWN ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S NORTH AND UPPER
90S SOUTH. WE SHOULD SEE MORE PEAKS OF SUN THAN WE DID ON SUNDAY
WHICH IN TURN WILL GIVE US HEAT INDICES OR "FEELS LIKE" TEMPS CLOSE
TO 100 FOR MANY AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WINTER GARDEN AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WE ALSO SHOULD HAVE A
STRONGER CAP IN PLACE TODAY BUT IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A STORM
TRY TO BREAK IT MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING, IF IT DOES WE
COULD SEE A BURST OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. IF ANY ACTIVITY DOES FORM IT SHOULD WANE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TUESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND VERY MUGGY DAY AS WE REMAIN ENTRENCHED
UNDERNEATH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. A COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTH WILL BE ON ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD WHILE A DRYLINE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX
WILL ALSO BE ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES SHOULD BE THE NEXT FOCUS FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS WOULD LIKELY COMMENCE LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, MORE ON THAT
BELOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
A BIG PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED FOR THE LONG TERM AS WE REMAIN
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH USUALLY ALLOWS FOR DISTURBANCES TO
IMPACT OUR AREA AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RICH MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE
AIR IN PLACE. AS SUCH, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
COULD IMPACT OUR AREA AS A DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST ACROSS WEST TX AND WILL HAVE ADVANCED EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING ITS DAILY RETREAT BACK WESTWARD. SIMILARLY,
THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD AND AS
IT DOES SO NUMEROUS HI-RES MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTION WOULD BLOSSOM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BY TUESDAY
EVENING. MOST MODELS HIGHLIGHT AREAS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL TX
WHERE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE QUICKLY
CONGEALING INTO A LINE AND WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR
AREA. WHAT'S INTERESTING TO NOTE IS JUST HOW CONSISTENT ALL OF THESE
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT TARGETING THIS SCENARIO. AS THIS CONVECTION
MOVES CLOSER WE COULD SEE A SECONDARY LINE OF STORMS FORM OUT WEST
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE CONVECTION IF IT FORMS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. DEPENDING ON HOW ROBUST THIS ACTIVITY BECOMES WILL DETERMINE
HOW FAR EASTWARD IT ADVANCES. SPC CURRENTLY HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN
A LEVEL 1 OR 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
WITH THE CONTINUED MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. EVENTUALLY
THIS FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND
WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS NOW STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE THE CONTINUED FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WE REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE COMING DAYS WILL BE IDENTIFYING
WHICH FEATURES WILL PROVIDE THE STRONGEST FOCUS FOR STORMS EACH DAY.
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM A DRYLINE/SHORTWAVE-DRIVEN SEVERE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE TUESDAY TO A FRONTAL AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE
BOUNDARY-DRIVEN HEAVY RAIN AND STORM REGIME LATER IN THE WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THIS PATTERN CONTINUING INTO AND
EVEN BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT CONTINUE TO RIDE OVER
OUR AREA AND IGNITE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR
MANY AREAS, THERE ARE SOME BEGINNING SIGNS THAT WE COULD SEE HEAVIER
ROUNDS THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER DUE TO
THE DIFFICULT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS AND
THE NUMEROUS SURFACE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION
IT'S STILL TOO HARD TO DECIPHER WHICH AREAS MAY SEE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
AND WHEN. BOTTOM LINE IS AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK AS
DETAILS CONTINUE TO GET CLEARER OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
ALL TERMINALS HAVE MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN MVFR
UNTIL AROUND NOON. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
RETURN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING IN AUSTIN AND SAN
ANTONIO. IF CONVECTION DOES FORM, IT COULD LOWER CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY TO MVFR FOR A SHORT TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 92 78 91 72 / 10 20 50 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 79 91 73 / 10 20 50 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 78 91 72 / 10 20 40 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 75 87 70 / 10 10 50 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 98 78 95 72 / 10 10 30 50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 91 77 90 71 / 10 20 60 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 78 91 72 / 10 20 40 60
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 78 92 73 / 10 20 40 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 79 91 73 / 10 20 40 60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 78 91 73 / 10 20 40 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 93 79 92 73 / 10 20 30 60
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...05
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