607
FXUS64 KEWX 220005
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
705 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SOGGY WEATHER CONTINUING FOR PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
COASTAL PLAINS.
- TRENDING TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, AN AXIS OF MOIST CONVERGENCE LED TO A
STATIONARY BAND OF PERSISTENT RAIN THIS MORNING, THIS TIME BETWEEN
BURNET AND LEE COUNTIES. CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX ON ITS
SOUTHWESTERN FLANKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAIN TODAY, BUT
DECREASING TRENDS IN RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN NOTED, AND THE
BOUNDARY LOOKS LESS COHERENT THAN EARLIER. AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT
SWINGS EAST, THIS WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THE TENDENCY FOR
RAINBANDING AND SHIFT MOST ACTIVITY EAST, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
ALSO FALLING GENERALLY BELOW THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE MOST
IMPACTED AREAS (ABOUT 1.4" PW). HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A WEAK BUT
HUMID LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THUS, SCATTERED SOUTH-TO-NORTH MOVING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY MAINLY OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
COASTAL PLAINS, BUT WITH A GRADUAL DECLINING TREND IN STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE TONIGHT. OVERALL ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE MORE LIKELY
TO BE IN THE 1/4 TO 1-INCH RANGE BETWEEN THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. KEEP IN MIND THAT OUR RECENT SOAKING RAINS HAVE REDUCED
THE ABILITY FOR SOILS TO TAKE ON MORE WATER, SO EVEN LOWERED RAIN
RATES COULD STILL CAUSE SOME PONDING AND ISOLATED NUISANCE
FLOODING IN SOME OF THE MORE SATURATED AREAS SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AND NORTH OF THE AUSTIN/HIGHLAND
LAKES AREAS.
AFTER A PROLONGED STRETCH OF SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL NORTH OR EAST WINDS
FOR THE REGION, SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL RESTORE THE USUAL COMBINATION OF WARM AND HUMID MORE
TYPICAL OF APRIL IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER, THE DEPTH OF
RETURNING MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SHALLOWER WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
VACATING THE AREA. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (UP TO ABOUT 40
PERCENT) FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS RIDING ALONG THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS, BUT A LACK OF MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF RAINS COMPARED TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE, PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR-AVERAGE VALUES
IN THE LOW 80S OVER MOST AREAS FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
WARM ALOFT MOVES OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND OVER OUR AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FOR SOME AREAS BY FRIDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL WARMTH LIKELY OVER THE
WEEKEND PUSHING MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S. HIGHS ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE HAVE ABOUT A 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF TOPPING 95F ON
MONDAY.
THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME ACTIVE WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE WARM AIR
ALOFT SHOULD MAINTAIN A STRONG CAP, WHICH INCREASES UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY SINCE THE BULK OF THE VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE DISTURBANCES ARE PROJECTED TO TRACK WELL TO
OUR NORTH. FIRST, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS OKLAHOMA
BRINGS WITH IT A LOW CHANCE (10-20 PERCENT) FOR STREAMER SHOWERS
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN ARRIVES SATURDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL SMALL BATCHES OF PASSING VORTICITY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE DAYS OVER THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH ENSEMBLE TRENDS HAVE STAYED LOW-PROFILE REGARDING
RAIN CHANCES. THAT SAID, THE CONTINUED HUMID SOUTH WIND AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY LARGE AMOUNTS OF CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY (2000-3000 J/KG SBCAPE ON ENSEMBLE MEANS) TO REMAIN IN
THE AREA FOR STORMS TO ESCALATE IF THE CAPPING STRENGTH TRENDS
WEAKER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS (LIFR AND PERHAPS VLIFR) EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR
I-35 TAF SITES. EXPECT -RA TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
BEFORE WE SEE VCSH FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE COULD
ALSO SEE LOW VISIBILITY AS MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA
LEADING TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY HAVE VISIBILITY AS LOW
AS 1 1/2 MILES BUT SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT EVEN LOWER
VISIBILITIES UNDER 1 MILE. ADDITIONALLY, VLIFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KSAT HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO THIS
PACKAGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. KAUS AND KSSF SHOULD STAY
LIFR AS THE CLOUD DECK REMAINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER HOWEVER KSSF MAY
FLIRT BRIEFLY WITH VLIFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE BY NOON TOMORROW FOR
ALL TAF SITES WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR KDRT
NOT EXPECTING ANY -RA OR VCSH BUT COULD SEE LOW VISIBILITY ALONG
WITH LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 63 83 67 85 / 20 30 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 81 67 84 / 20 40 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 83 66 85 / 20 40 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 62 80 65 83 / 20 20 0 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 85 69 88 / 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 80 66 83 / 20 30 0 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 65 80 65 84 / 20 20 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 81 66 84 / 20 40 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 82 67 85 / 20 40 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 82 67 84 / 20 30 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 82 67 86 / 20 30 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...CJM
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