148
FXUS64 KEWX 171118
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
518 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWED BY A COOLER WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE 00Z DEL RIO SOUNDING REPORTED A 700MB TEMPERATURE ALOFT OF
12.4C, A 12-DEGREE RISE FROM TWO DAYS AGO AND CONFIRMING THAT AN
ABNORMALLY WARM PLATEAU AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. THESE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE AT THE UPPER-END OF OBSERVED
VALUES FOR FEBRUARY. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST REGIONWIDE. FALLING PRESSURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH BREEZY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MOST HREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT PEAK GUSTS
TOPPING 30 MPH OVER ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY, WITH MEAN PEAK GUSTS IN THE ADJUSTED MODEL
BLEND SUGGEST MAXIMUM GUSTS CLOSER TO 40 MPH ON RIDGELINES AND
HILLTOPS IN THE HILL COUNTRY. WHILE THIS FLOW SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY
MORE MOISTURE COMPARED TO MONDAY, LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GUSTS
ELSEWHERE WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY, THOUGH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUPPORTIVE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INDICATE THE EVENING SEABREEZE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35
CORRIDOR COULD BE QUITE BREEZY WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 25-30 MPH.
WINDS WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY. THE DRY LINE SHOULD SAG SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT LITTLE
SUBSTANTIVE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ASIDE FROM LOWERED DEW
POINTS FOR THOSE AREAS BEHIND THE DRY LINE. WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO TEXAS OVER THE WEEK, EVENTUALLY PUTTING OUR AREA
IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR A CHANGEUP IN THE WEATHER. THURSDAY
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY, PERHAPS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
THE AID OF WEAK DOWNSLOPING OFF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. HOWEVER, A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF-IFS AND
GDPS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. ENSEMBLE MEANS, ML-DETERMINISTIC
VARIANTS, AND OVERALL TRENDS TEND TO FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED CASE,
THOUGH CURRENT ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE UPSTREAM
SYNOPTIC PATTERN YIELDS MIXED SIGNALS. IN GENERAL, A STRONGER TROUGH
WOULD FAVOR A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY (WITH ACCOMPANYING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS)
BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BEHIND A POLAR COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY, WHILE A WEAKER TROUGH WOULD TEND TO PRODUCE WEAKER
FRONTS AND MORE GRADUAL THERMAL/MOISTURE CHANGES. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
IS VERY LOW AS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE LOOKS UNREMARKABLE AT THIS RANGE,
LIKELY LIMITED TO THE PACIFIC FRONT. WE'LL LIKELY HAVE BETTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATE WEEK PATTERN BY ABOUT WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
FEATURES DRIVING THESE CHANGES BECOME MORE APPARENT.
OVERALL, ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY BEHIND THE POLAR FRONT, THOUGH THE BLENDED
MEAN STILL LIES IN SEASONABLE TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY (HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOW 70S). AS THE BROADER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN
US, NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT MORE
REINFORCING COOL AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GRAND ENSEMBLE
DISTRIBUTION FAVORS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEING THE COLDEST
PERIOD WITHIN THE NEXT 10 DAYS, ACCOMPANIED BY ABOUT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A PATCHY LIGHT FREEZE IN THE HILL COUNTRY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR/MVFR MOST AREAS
WITH TEMPOS OF LIFR THROUGH 17/15Z. MIXING ERODES THE CIGS/VSBYS
TO VFR AS WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 17 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS BY
MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR, TEMPOS LIFR RETURN TONIGHT
AS WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 61 82 64 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 81 59 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 78 57 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 86 57 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 84 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 82 59 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 80 62 81 64 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 59 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 60 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM....TRAN
AVIATION...04
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