403
FXUS64 KEWX 051049
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
549 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- SEASONABLY HOT JULY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- LOW END RAIN/STORM CHANCES EARLY WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND, BEST
CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM HILL COUNTRY TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS IS
PRODUCING WEAK FLOW OVER TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF IS KEEPING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A WARM,
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE TX/OK
BORDER AND GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH TX. THESE STORMS WILL
GENERATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD SEND SOME CONVECTION INTO
OUR NORTHEASTERN AREA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE ANOTHER
SEASONABLY HOT DAY AND WARM NIGHT. MONDAY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO MOVE INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES STARTING DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. ANY STORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH THE STALLED FRONT BACK NORTHEAST, AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR ENTIRE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE FOREAST EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES BY FRIDAY, BUT HEAT INDICES
WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A FEW
SPOTS IN THE EAST COULD REACH ADVISORY LEVEL EACH AFTERNOON
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONT
NORTH TX. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
MVFR CEILINGS IS IMPACTING KSAT AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
REGION NEAR THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. KAUS AND KSSF HAS WAVERED
BETWEEN SCT AND BKN CATEGORIES OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE AND KDRT, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PRIMARILY CONTINUE. IN
ADDITION TO MORNING LOW CLOUDS, THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. VFR WILL RETURN
ACROSS ALL SITES BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT, WE'LL AGAIN MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ENTERING MONDAY MORNING.
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, HAVE KEPT MENTION OF SCT TO BKN
LOW CLOUDS, WITH KSAT MOST LIKELY THE MORE IMPACTFUL SITE WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OF LIGHT TO
MODEST SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH
PEAK SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 10 KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 78 97 77 / 0 10 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 97 78 97 77 / 0 0 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 97 76 96 75 / 0 0 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 75 95 74 / 0 20 30 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 79 100 78 / 0 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 77 96 77 / 0 10 30 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 95 75 / 0 0 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 97 76 96 75 / 0 0 10 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 98 77 97 77 / 10 0 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 10 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...62
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