749
FXUS64 KEWX 102326
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A VERY HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS
NEARLY CONTINUOUS SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN WAA
AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THIS
WEEKEND.
THE LATEST GOES-19 IMAGERY IN THE REGION DEPICTS SEVERAL AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN BUT
DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS A RESULT, STORMS
FORMING TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, PRONE TO COLLAPSE,
CLASHING WITH COLD OUTFLOW TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS. RAINFALL RATES COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES BUT HOW LONG STORMS
LINGER OVER ONE AREA SHOULDN'T BE PARTICULARLY LONG, SO FLOODING
RISK IS LOW TODAY.
ON SATURDAY, THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING, PARTICULARLY OUT
WEST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OVER WEST TEXAS,
ALLOWING A DRYLINE TO SHARPEN. THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OUT AHEAD
OF IT, ALONG WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER WEST TEXAS THAT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY
AND PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU LATE SATURDAY EVENING. OUT
AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION, MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SEE
SIMILAR COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
STREAMER ACTIVITY BUBBLING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BUT THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT IS OUT WEST, WHERE A LEVEL 1 TO 2 OF 5 RISK IS IN
PLACE FOR SATURDAY EVENING. HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
ANY STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN SOME INTENSITY WILL BE ONGOING EARLY
SUNDAY OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, BUT THE MAIN ACTION LOOKS TO
ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES FURTHER
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, INSTABILITY,
AND SHEAR WILL BRING ABOUT A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT IS ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT
ON HOW QUICKLY THINGS CAN DESTABILIZE AGAIN AFTER ANY MORNING
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING.
SPC HAS A DAY 3 LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY, AND
A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AS WELL. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, WPC HAS A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK OVER
OUR REGION SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD
TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. STORMS SHOULD FIRE UP LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH
AT LEAST ONE MORE LEAD SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE WITH DAILY RAIN AND STORM THREATS, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE PERIOD ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY AROUND KAUS. PUT
IN AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY UNTIL 02Z
AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR POSSIBLE -TSRA. ACTIVITY SHOULD OTHERWISE
DIMINISH AFTER DARK BUT SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
RETURN TOWARDS 05-07Z AND IFR AFTER 10Z. SIMILAR TO TODAY, EXPECT
CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY RISE BACK TO VFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ELECTED TO ADD PROB30 GROUPS FOR -TSRA AT THE I-35 TAF
SITES (KAUS, KSAT, AND KSSF) AFTER 18Z AND VCSH FOR KDRT AFTER
21Z AS A RESULT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 82 69 81 / 20 50 50 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 82 68 80 / 20 50 40 60
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 82 68 80 / 30 50 40 60
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 79 67 77 / 10 40 60 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 67 82 69 84 / 30 50 90 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 81 67 78 / 20 40 50 60
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 81 67 79 / 20 50 50 70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 82 68 80 / 30 50 40 60
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 82 69 81 / 20 50 20 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 67 82 69 79 / 30 50 50 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 67 83 70 80 / 20 50 40 60
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...62
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