924
FXUS64 KEWX 200620
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1220 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE, SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
- A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH
- ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS ROUND.
HOWEVER, MEDIUM RANGE AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY, AND I-35 CORRIDOR TO BE IMPACTED
THE MOST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS UNDER WAY AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF A DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH AND
MID TO UPPER LEVEL PULSES OF ENERGY, THERE IS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET SPREADING INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. AS A MATTER OF FACT, THE 00Z THU DRT SOUNDING
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWATS) VALUE WAS RECORDED AT 1.72 INCHES WHICH
IS WAY ABOVE THE DAILY MAX VALUE OF 1.46 INCHES. THE LATEST RAP
SOUNDING DATA SHOWS PWATS GOING UP OVERNIGHT TO 1.82 INCHES OVER THE
RIO GRANDE AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN ADDITION, THE SOUNDING
DATA SUGGESTS FOR INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS. ELEVATED SHEAR VALUES AND HODOGRAPH PRESENTATION SUGGEST
THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. AS THE OVERNIGHT GOES
ON AND THE THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD ARRIVES, HIRES MODELS SUGGEST FOR
TRAINING CELLS OVER AND OVER THE RIO GRANDE, SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU, AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. AS ABOVE MENTIONED IN THE KEY
MESSAGES, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST STORM RAINFALL
TOTALS RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE INCLUDING
DEL RIO AND AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE EDWARDS COUNTY
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ROCKSPRINGS AND BARKSDALE UNDER A
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IT IS RARE TO SEE THIS IN OUR
AREA PER LOCAL RECORDS. THEREFORE, WE URGE PEOPLE TO STAY WEATHER
AWARE AND TO KEEP CHECKING FOR WEATHER UPDATES FROM US AND
TRUSTED RESOURCES.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO PUSH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING. THIS SCENARIO PUSHES A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WITH ELEVATED PWATS, WE ARE
EXPECTING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE HILL
COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
THERE COULD BE A LULL OF ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A NEW LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHES
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
COOLER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH FRIDAY'S
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. VERY LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 60S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
RAIN CHANCES RETURN ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTHWARD INTO HIGHWAY 90. THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO
THE NORTH AND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING THE LOCAL AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, A PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, MODELS SUGGEST FOR PWATS TO
INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL VALUES, WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER HEAVY
RAIN EVENT AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL AND ISOLATED 6 TO 8 INCHES DURING THE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EVENT, NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR SOME AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU,
HILL COUNTRY, AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT OF THE OCCURRENCE OF THIS SECOND ROUND, HOWEVER, MORE
DETAILS TO COME DURING FUTURE WEATHER PACKAGES AS THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINLY ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1213 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A SLOW
MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE GREATEST INITIAL IMPACTS OCCURS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, INCLUDING AT
THE KDRT TAF SITE, WHERE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND EAST INCLUDING THE KAUS,
KSAT, AND KSSF TAF SITES, SOME LIGHTER SHOWER OR DRIZZLE ACTIVITY
MAY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARRIVES INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A LULL IN STORM ACTIVITY IS THEN
POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STORMS COULD CONTAIN
HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND SOME SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION TO RAIN
AND STORMS, CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL INTO THE MVFR TO IFR
RANGE FOR MOST. COULD EVEN SEE BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS ESTABLISH.
WITHIN RAIN/STORMS, VISIBILITY COULD REDUCE AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 81 66 81 61 / 70 70 60 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 83 66 80 61 / 60 60 60 30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 66 81 62 / 60 50 60 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 63 77 55 / 80 80 40 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 61 80 58 / 90 30 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 64 80 58 / 70 70 50 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 81 64 80 62 / 80 50 40 30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 83 66 82 62 / 60 50 60 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 84 68 83 63 / 40 30 70 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 82 68 80 65 / 70 50 50 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 84 69 82 66 / 60 50 50 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206-
217.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...04
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