381
FXUS64 KEWX 020128
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
828 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021
UPDATE
SEVERAL ISOLATED AREAS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE PICKED UP 2-4 INCHES OF
RAIN TODAY AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK HEATING, DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE SAME
RAIN RATES HOWEVER, BUT SOME ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE BOUNDARY HAS NEARLY STALLED ONCE AGAIN JUST
EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR AND SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT POP GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND
LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR
MOST AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021/
AVIATION...
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY HAS PRODUCED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT AUS AND DRT ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO THE SAN ANTONIO SITES WITHIN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THESE TERMINALS BEFORE
THE EVENING ENDS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL PRIMARILY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THROUGH TOMORROW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU MID AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
BETTER SOUTHWARD PUSH WITH IT THAN EAST, WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND IT ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ALIGNED ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 90 AND ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
YIELDING DCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1300 J/KG. IN ADDITION, SOME LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN COULD OCCUR IN SOME OF THE CLUSTERS
THROUGH THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH
SUNSET.
TONIGHT'S FORECAST IS TRICKY, AS SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS ARE INSISTING THAT THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND MID LEVEL
ENERGY CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS COULD REINVIGORATE SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THE MAIN FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION TOMORROW. THE
FRONT, COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE POOL DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE REGION, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
COOLER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DCAPE VALUES SHOULD
LIMIT THE THREAT OF STORMS PRODUCING STRONGER WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER, SOME LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2.1-2.3 INCHES,
WHICH IS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN CFSR
CLIMATOLOGY VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME POCKETS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY WASHES OUT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST, GENERALLY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE,
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. GREATEST FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL
LIKELY CONCENTRATE BETTER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE THE GREATEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.85 AND 2.15 INCHES SHALL EXIST NEAREST
THE FRONT. THIS IS ALSO WHERE ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR, OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE MID-RANGE MODELS ALONG WITH THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN THE QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE
NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TREND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK WITH THE UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND THE PUSH OF SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR FIN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OUT OF THE NORTH. THE MORNING LOWS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL LIKELY TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER OTHERWISE
OVERNIGHTS WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.
FRIDAY SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON RAIN CHANCES AS THE GFS/CMC
GUIDANCE STAYS MOSTLY DRY WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS THE SIGNAL FOR SOME RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION AS IT DELAYS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SLIGHTLY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE INTO
FRIDAY FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES THEN MAINLY CUTOFF FOR THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THE COASTAL PLAINS MAY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND WITH THE HIGHS RETURNING TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE. HOWEVER, LIKE AFTER THE LAST FEW RAINFALL
EVENTS, WE'LL SEE HOW MUCH THE SOIL MOISTURE MAY FACTOR THOSE
AFTERNOON HIGHS. AS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER, NIGHTS STAY WARM AND
HUMID.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 88 74 92 73 / 50 70 50 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 89 73 92 72 / 50 70 50 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 90 73 92 73 / 50 60 50 30 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 75 86 71 90 70 / 40 70 40 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 92 76 93 75 / 40 50 60 40 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 87 72 91 71 / 40 70 40 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 77 89 74 91 73 / 50 50 50 40 40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 77 90 73 92 72 / 50 60 50 30 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 90 75 92 75 / 30 50 60 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 88 74 91 74 / 50 50 50 30 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 77 91 77 92 75 / 50 50 60 40 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
LONG-TERM...OAKS
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