014
FXUS64 KEWX 182329
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
629 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE.
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL LOW
TEMPERATURES. FOR TODAY, WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAINLY SOUTH OF EAGLE PASS AND
FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS NORTHWARD ALONG THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS WILLIAMSON COUNTY. A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AND MAY AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN BURNET COUNTY. WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS, BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
WE WILL SHOW A LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, SOME
LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTHWARD FOR AREAS GENERALLY
EAST OF THE I-35/I-37 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT
UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES CAN ALSO BE ATTRIBUTED TO SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE LATEST ROUND OF OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS THE ECMWF HAS REMAINED A
LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS MODEL. WILL TEND
TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE
SOME LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT, THE UPPER SUPPORT
GENERALLY REMAINS FARTHER NORTH OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW, WE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-50% RANGE FOR TUESDAY, WITH HIGHER
CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PUT MUCH WEIGHT INTO THE MODELS
THIS FAR OUT, BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1 INCH.
SUSPECT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS FILTERS
IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL NOT DROP MUCH
AND SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BEGIN TO NUDGE UPWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY.
AVIATION (00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES SPOTTY POCKETS OF ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS
AND GENERALLY BRIEF SHOWERS. A SHOWER MAY NEAR KAUS BUT IMPACTS
REMAIN UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ACTIVITY DISSIPATES ONCE SUNSET
OCCURS. MAY SEE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE, EXPECT FOR
FEW TO SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AT
TIMES. THE WINDS REMAIN OF AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 96 71 96 / 0 10 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 95 69 95 / 0 10 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 95 68 95 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 91 69 92 / 10 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 94 73 95 / 0 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 94 69 94 / 10 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 96 68 96 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 95 67 95 / 0 10 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 97 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PLATT
LONG TERM...PLATT
AVIATION...62
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