780
FXUS64 KEWX 112350
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
550 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY, BUT RAIN AMOUNTS
TRENDING DOWN.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS UPPER RIDGING ESTABLISHES BACK OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHERLY WIND AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. WIND BECOMES LIGHT
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AND LOW
CLOUDS BUILDING OVER THE WEST CLOSER TO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES, NAMELY KARNES, DEWITT AND LAVACA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS FOR THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY WARM
FEBRUARY LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BUT BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THIS DAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES
ITS PROGRESSION EAST TOWARDS TEXAS AND WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BEFORE RAIN CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JUST MAY KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR VAL VERDE
COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, THOUGH MOST
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA DURING THIS TIME.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE STORM TRACK STAYING
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA IS HOLDING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. LREF GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATES ABOUT A 20-
30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A HALF INCH OR GREATER OF RAIN OVER OUR
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT SATURDAY, THERE COULD STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING IN THE LONG TERM AS
RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. ONLY A SUBTLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES IS SEEN FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK REMAINING ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CURRENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION WITH FAIR SKIES. A
REGION OF MVFR CIGS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE FROM K5T9 TO KDRT TO KECU AFTER 12Z. THE NORTHEASTERN
FLANK OF THIS CLOUD MASS MAY REACH KSAT/KSSF, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCT COVER AT FL025
AFTER 09Z FOR THOSE TERMINALS IN THE 00Z TAF. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL ROTATE FROM LIGHT NORTHERLIES TO LIGHT SOUTHERLIES REGIONWIDE
AFTER ABOUT 17Z, REMAINING BELOW 10 KT AS VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS MAY ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING, AND HAVE
ADDED A FM GROUP AT THE END OF THE KSAT TAF TO INDICATE THE
POSSIBLE CLOUD LAYERS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST MODELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 52 78 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 49 78 58 80 / 0 0 0 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 50 78 58 80 / 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 49 75 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 54 78 59 82 / 0 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 78 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 51 77 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 49 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 51 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 53 77 59 80 / 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 54 78 60 81 / 0 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...TRAN
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